Science.gov

Sample records for accident event trees

  1. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M. ); Medford, G.T. )

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied.

  2. Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Sarrack, A.G.

    1999-06-22

    The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).

  3. Categorization of PWR accident sequences and guidelines for fault trees: seismic initiators

    SciTech Connect

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1984-09-01

    This study developed a set of dominant accident sequences that could be applied generically to domestic commercial PWRs as a standardized basis for a probabilistic seismic risk assessment. This was accomplished by ranking the Zion 1 accident sequences. The pertinent PWR safety systems were compared on a plant-by-plant basis to determine the applicability of the dominant accident sequences of Zion 1 to other PWR plants. The functional event trees were developed to describe the system functions that must work or not work in order for a certain accident sequence to happen, one for pipe breaks and one for transients.

  4. Mines Systems Safety Improvement Using an Integrated Event Tree and Fault Tree Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Ranjan; Ghosh, Achyuta Krishna

    2016-06-01

    Mines systems such as ventilation system, strata support system, flame proof safety equipment, are exposed to dynamic operational conditions such as stress, humidity, dust, temperature, etc., and safety improvement of such systems can be done preferably during planning and design stage. However, the existing safety analysis methods do not handle the accident initiation and progression of mine systems explicitly. To bridge this gap, this paper presents an integrated Event Tree (ET) and Fault Tree (FT) approach for safety analysis and improvement of mine systems design. This approach includes ET and FT modeling coupled with redundancy allocation technique. In this method, a concept of top hazard probability is introduced for identifying system failure probability and redundancy is allocated to the system either at component or system level. A case study on mine methane explosion safety with two initiating events is performed. The results demonstrate that the presented method can reveal the accident scenarios and improve the safety of complex mine systems simultaneously.

  5. Constructing event trees for volcanic crises

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Newhall, C.; Hoblitt, R.

    2002-01-01

    Event trees are useful frameworks for discussing probabilities of possible outcomes of volcanic unrest. Each branch of the tree leads from a necessary prior event to a more specific outcome, e.g., from an eruption to a pyroclastic flow. Where volcanic processes are poorly understood, probability estimates might be purely empirical - utilizing observations of past and current activity and an assumption that the future will mimic the past or follow a present trend. If processes are better understood, probabilities might be estimated from a theoritical model, either subjectively or by numerical simulations. Use of Bayes' theorem aids in the estimation of how fresh unrest raises (or lowers) the probabilities of eruptions. Use of event trees during volcanic crises can help volcanologists to critically review their analysis of hazard, and help officials and individuals to compare volcanic risks with more familiar risks. Trees also emphasize the inherently probabilistic nature of volcano forecasts, with multiple possible outcomes.

  6. Below Regulatory Conern Owners Group: Radiologic impact of accidents and unexpected events from disposal of BRC waste: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Waite, D.A.; Dolan, M.M.; Rish, W.R.; Rossi, A.J.; McCourt, J.E.

    1989-07-01

    This report determines the radiological impact of accidents and unexpected events in the disposal of Below Regulatory Concern (BRC) waste. The accident analysis considers the transportation, incineration, and disposal of BRC waste as municipal solid waste. The potential greatest radiological impact for each type of accident is identified through the use of event trees. These accident events are described in terms of the generic waste property(ies) (e.g., flammability, dispersibility, leachability, and solubility) that cause the greatest radiological impact. 7 refs., 32 figs., 12 tabs.

  7. A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Riyadi, Eko H.

    2014-09-30

    Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.

  8. A review for identification of initiating events in event tree development process on nuclear power plants

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Riyadi, Eko H.

    2014-09-01

    Initiating event is defined as any event either internal or external to the nuclear power plants (NPPs) that perturbs the steady state operation of the plant, if operating, thereby initiating an abnormal event such as transient or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) within the NPPs. These initiating events trigger sequences of events that challenge plant control and safety systems whose failure could potentially lead to core damage or large early release. Selection for initiating events consists of two steps i.e. first step, definition of possible events, such as by evaluating a comprehensive engineering, and by constructing a top level logic model. Then the second step, grouping of identified initiating event's by the safety function to be performed or combinations of systems responses. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to discuss initiating events identification in event tree development process and to reviews other probabilistic safety assessments (PSA). The identification of initiating events also involves the past operating experience, review of other PSA, failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA), feedback from system modeling, and master logic diagram (special type of fault tree). By using the method of study for the condition of the traditional US PSA categorization in detail, could be obtained the important initiating events that are categorized into LOCA, transients and external events.

  9. Coherent sampling of multiple branch event tree questions

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, A.C. Jr.; Wyss, G.D.

    1993-10-01

    In the detailed phenomenological event trees used in recent Level III PRA analyses questions arise about the possible outcomes of events for which the underlying physics is not well understood and where the initial and boundary conditions are uncertain. Examples of the types of events being analyzed are: What is the containment failure mode?, Is them a large in-vessel steam explosion?, How much H{sub 2}, CO, and CO{sub 2} are produced during core-concrete interactions? The outcomes of each of these questions must be defined based on an understanding of the basic physics of the phenomena and the level of detail of the probabilistic analysis. Many of these phenomena have never occurred since severe reactor accidents are extremely rare events. The only information we have about these phenomena comes from four basic sources: general theoretical knowledge, limited experimental results a few actual events, and various models of the phenomena. All of these phenomena have significant uncertainty arising from three basic sources: level of detail, initial and boundary conditions, and lack of knowledge. Since it is not possible to conduct enough full scale tests to generate a set of ``objective`` relative frequencies, the probabilities, therefore, will have to be ``subjective`` and generated based on expert knowledge. In assessing the conditional probabilities of the various possible outcomes of an event during an accident, the expert must amalgamate his knowledge with the level of detail being used in the PRA analysis to generate a set of probabilities for the defined set of outcomes. It is often convenient for an expert to formulate his opinion in terms of expecting to see n{sub i} occurrences of outcome E{sub i} in N occurrences of event E. The order of the outcomes is typically not important because the individual trials are viewed as being independent of one another.

  10. Dynamic Event Tree Analysis Through RAVEN

    SciTech Connect

    A. Alfonsi; C. Rabiti; D. Mandelli; J. Cogliati; R. A. Kinoshita; A. Naviglio

    2013-09-01

    Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics is not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (D-PRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed in a high modular and pluggable way in order to enable easy integration of different programming languages (i.e., C++, Python) and coupling with other application including the ones based on the MOOSE framework, developed by INL as well. RAVEN performs two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, RAVEN also models stochastic events, such as components failures, and performs uncertainty quantification. Such stochastic modeling is employed by using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This paper focuses on the first task and shows how it is possible to perform the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, the Dynamic PRA analysis, using Dynamic Event Tree, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out scenario is presented.

  11. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A. )

    1990-06-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident.

  12. Adaptive Dynamic Event Tree in RAVEN code

    SciTech Connect

    Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego; Cogliati, Joshua Joseph; Kinoshita, Robert Arthur

    2014-11-01

    RAVEN is a software tool that is focused on performing statistical analysis of stochastic dynamic systems. RAVEN has been designed in a high modular and pluggable way in order to enable easy integration of different programming languages (i.e., C++, Python) and coupling with other applications (system codes). Among the several capabilities currently present in RAVEN, there are five different sampling strategies: Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Grid, Adaptive and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampling methodologies. The scope of this paper is to present a new sampling approach, currently under definition and implementation: an evolution of the DET me

  13. Preliminary Identification of Accident Initiating Events for IFE Power Plants

    SciTech Connect

    Cadwallader, Lee Charles; Latkowsk, J. F.

    2001-10-01

    This paper presents initial results of a task to identify accident initiating events for inertial fusion energy (IFE) power plant designs. Initiating events (IEs) are a fundamental building block of a probabilistic risk assessment; they are the ‘accident starters’ that are analyzed to determine the risks posed to members of the public in the vicinity of the power plant. The IE results for the SOMBRERO design are presented in tabular form. The SOMBRERO design was analyzed since it is representative of dry chamber wall, laser driven designs. This work is used to characterize IFE plant risk and to identify potential design changes that would mitigate the plant risk.

  14. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

  15. Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A.

    1996-12-01

    Radiocesium contamination form the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied form 1990-1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab.

  16. ADAPT (Analysis of Dynamic Accident Progression Trees) Beta Version 0.9

    2010-01-07

    The purpose of the ADAPT code is to generate Dynamic Event Trees (DET) using a user specified simulator. ADAPT can utilize any simulation tool which meets a minimal set of requirements. ADAPT is based on the concept of DET which use explicit modeling of the deterministic dynamic processes that take place during a nuclear reactor plant system evolution along with stochastic modeling. When DET are used to model different aspects of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA),more » all accident progression scenarios starting from an initiating event are considered simultaneously. The DET branching occurs at user specified times and/or when an action is required by the system and/or the operator. These outcomes then decide how the dynamic system variables will evolve in time for each DET branch. Since two different outcomes at a DET branching may lead to completely different paths for system evolution, the next branching for these paths may occur not only at different times, but can be based on different branching criteria. The computational infrastructure allows for flexibility in ADAPT to link with different system simulation codes, parallel processing of the scenarios under consideration, on-line scenario management (initiation as well as termination) and user friendly graphical capabilities. The ADAPT system is designed for a distributed computing environment; the scheduler can track multiple concurrent branches simultaneously. The scheduler is modularized so that the DET branching strategy can be modified (e.g. biasing towards the worse case scenario/event). Independent database systems store data from the simulation tasks and the DET structure so that the event tree can be constructed and analyzed later. ADAPT is provided with a user-friendly client which can easily sort through and display the results of an experiment, precluding the need for the user to manually inspect individual simulator runs.« less

  17. Spatially Diffuse Tree Mortality during an Episodic Mortality Event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aakala, T.; Kuuluvainen, T.; Wallenius, T.; Kauhanen, H.; Mikkola, K.; Demidova, N.

    2013-12-01

    Episodic tree mortality events, such as those caused by insect outbreaks, are often characterized by aggregated tree mortality, resulting in patches of dead trees. However, simultaneously with mortality within these aggregates, individual tree mortality in the surrounding forest matrix can also be considerable. Consequences of this diffuse mortality for stand structure and further development differ from that of aggregated mortality. Here, we used change detection in LANDSAT-images and a stand-level field inventory in a naturally dynamic forest landscape in Arkhangelsk province in Russia, to examine the role of spatially diffuse mortality during an episodic tree mortality event, caused by drought and bark beetles. We show that even if patches of dead trees are a prominent and visible feature within the study landscape, diffuse mortality outside of these distinct patches was responsible for a large proportion of tree deaths. The findings demonstrate the potential importance of spatially diffuse tree mortality and the consequent finer scale forest dynamics even during episodic events.

  18. Post-event human decision errors: operator action tree/time reliability correlation

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, R E; Fragola, J; Wreathall, J

    1982-11-01

    This report documents an interim framework for the quantification of the probability of errors of decision on the part of nuclear power plant operators after the initiation of an accident. The framework can easily be incorporated into an event tree/fault tree analysis. The method presented consists of a structure called the operator action tree and a time reliability correlation which assumes the time available for making a decision to be the dominating factor in situations requiring cognitive human response. This limited approach decreases the magnitude and complexity of the decision modeling task. Specifically, in the past, some human performance models have attempted prediction by trying to emulate sequences of human actions, or by identifying and modeling the information processing approach applicable to the task. The model developed here is directed at describing the statistical performance of a representative group of hypothetical individuals responding to generalized situations.

  19. Fault tree analysis of fire and explosion accidents for dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ship engine rooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Yifeng; Zhao, Jie; Shi, Tengfei; Zhu, Peipei

    2016-07-01

    In recent years, China's increased interest in environmental protection has led to a promotion of energy-efficient dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ships in Chinese inland rivers. A natural gas as ship fuel may pose dangers of fire and explosion if a gas leak occurs. If explosions or fires occur in the engine rooms of a ship, heavy damage and losses will be incurred. In this paper, a fault tree model is presented that considers both fires and explosions in a dual fuel ship; in this model, dual fuel engine rooms are the top events. All the basic events along with the minimum cut sets are obtained through the analysis. The primary factors that affect accidents involving fires and explosions are determined by calculating the degree of structure importance of the basic events. According to these results, corresponding measures are proposed to ensure and improve the safety and reliability of Chinese inland dual fuel ships.

  20. Fault tree analysis of fire and explosion accidents for dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ship engine rooms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guan, Yifeng; Zhao, Jie; Shi, Tengfei; Zhu, Peipei

    2016-09-01

    In recent years, China's increased interest in environmental protection has led to a promotion of energy-efficient dual fuel (diesel/natural gas) ships in Chinese inland rivers. A natural gas as ship fuel may pose dangers of fire and explosion if a gas leak occurs. If explosions or fires occur in the engine rooms of a ship, heavy damage and losses will be incurred. In this paper, a fault tree model is presented that considers both fires and explosions in a dual fuel ship; in this model, dual fuel engine rooms are the top events. All the basic events along with the minimum cut sets are obtained through the analysis. The primary factors that affect accidents involving fires and explosions are determined by calculating the degree of structure importance of the basic events. According to these results, corresponding measures are proposed to ensure and improve the safety and reliability of Chinese inland dual fuel ships.

  1. Optimized Uncertainty Quantification Algorithm Within a Dynamic Event Tree Framework

    SciTech Connect

    J. W. Nielsen; Akira Tokuhiro; Robert Hiromoto

    2014-06-01

    Methods for developing Phenomenological Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRT) for nuclear power plants have been a useful tool in providing insight into modelling aspects that are important to safety. These methods have involved expert knowledge with regards to reactor plant transients and thermal-hydraulic codes to identify are of highest importance. Quantified PIRT provides for rigorous method for quantifying the phenomena that can have the greatest impact. The transients that are evaluated and the timing of those events are typically developed in collaboration with the Probabilistic Risk Analysis. Though quite effective in evaluating risk, traditional PRA methods lack the capability to evaluate complex dynamic systems where end states may vary as a function of transition time from physical state to physical state . Dynamic PRA (DPRA) methods provide a more rigorous analysis of complex dynamic systems. A limitation of DPRA is its potential for state or combinatorial explosion that grows as a function of the number of components; as well as, the sampling of transition times from state-to-state of the entire system. This paper presents a method for performing QPIRT within a dynamic event tree framework such that timing events which result in the highest probabilities of failure are captured and a QPIRT is performed simultaneously while performing a discrete dynamic event tree evaluation. The resulting simulation results in a formal QPIRT for each end state. The use of dynamic event trees results in state explosion as the number of possible component states increases. This paper utilizes a branch and bound algorithm to optimize the solution of the dynamic event trees. The paper summarizes the methods used to implement the branch-and-bound algorithm in solving the discrete dynamic event trees.

  2. Dynamic Event Tree advancements and control logic improvements

    SciTech Connect

    Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego; Sen, Ramazan Sonat; Cogliati, Joshua Joseph

    2015-09-01

    The RAVEN code has been under development at the Idaho National Laboratory since 2012. Its main goal is to create a multi-purpose platform for the deploying of all the capabilities needed for Probabilistic Risk Assessment, uncertainty quantification, data mining analysis and optimization studies. RAVEN is currently equipped with three different sampling categories: Forward samplers (Monte Carlo, Latin Hyper Cube, Stratified, Grid Sampler, Factorials, etc.), Adaptive Samplers (Limit Surface search, Adaptive Polynomial Chaos, etc.) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) samplers (Deterministic and Adaptive Dynamic Event Trees). The main subject of this document is to report the activities that have been done in order to: start the migration of the RAVEN/RELAP-7 control logic system into MOOSE, and develop advanced dynamic sampling capabilities based on the Dynamic Event Tree approach. In order to provide to all MOOSE-based applications a control logic capability, in this Fiscal Year an initial migration activity has been initiated, moving the control logic system, designed for RELAP-7 by the RAVEN team, into the MOOSE framework. In this document, a brief explanation of what has been done is going to be reported. The second and most important subject of this report is about the development of a Dynamic Event Tree (DET) sampler named “Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (HDET) and its Adaptive variant “Adaptive Hybrid Dynamic Event Tree” (AHDET). As other authors have already reported, among the different types of uncertainties, it is possible to discern two principle types: aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. The classical Dynamic Event Tree is in charge of treating the first class (aleatory) uncertainties; the dependence of the probabilistic risk assessment and analysis on the epistemic uncertainties are treated by an initial Monte Carlo sampling (MCDET). From each Monte Carlo sample, a DET analysis is run (in total, N trees). The Monte Carlo employs a pre-sampling of the

  3. Simplified containment event tree analysis for the Sequoyah Ice Condenser containment

    SciTech Connect

    Galyean, W.J.; Schroeder, J.A.; Pafford, D.J. )

    1990-12-01

    An evaluation of a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) ice condenser containment was performed. In this evaluation, simplified containment event trees (SCETs) were developed that utilized the vast storehouse of information generated by the NRC's Draft NUREG-1150 effort. Specifically, the computer programs and data files produced by the NUREG-1150 analysis of Sequoyah were used to electronically generate SCETs, as opposed to the NUREG-1150 accident progression event trees (APETs). This simplification was performed to allow graphic depiction of the SCETs in typical event tree format, which facilitates their understanding and use. SCETs were developed for five of the seven plant damage state groups (PDSGs) identified by the NUREG-1150 analyses, which includes: both short- and long-term station blackout sequences (SBOs), transients, loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs), and anticipated transient without scram (ATWS). Steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) and event-V PDSGs were not analyzed because of their containment bypass nature. After being benchmarked with the APETs, in terms of containment failure mode and risk, the SCETs were used to evaluate a number of potential containment modifications. The modifications were examined for their potential to mitigate or prevent containment failure from hydrogen burns or direct impingement on the containment by the core, (both factors identified as significant contributors to risk in the NUREG-1150 Sequoyah analysis). However, because of the relatively low baseline risk postulated for Sequoyah (i.e., 12 person-rems per reactor year), none of the potential modifications appear to be cost effective. 15 refs., 10 figs. , 17 tabs.

  4. OBEST: The Object-Based Event Scenario Tree Methodology

    SciTech Connect

    WYSS, GREGORY D.; DURAN, FELICIA A.

    2001-03-01

    Event tree analysis and Monte Carlo-based discrete event simulation have been used in risk assessment studies for many years. This report details how features of these two methods can be combined with concepts from object-oriented analysis to develop a new risk assessment methodology with some of the best features of each. The resultant Object-Based Event Scenarios Tree (OBEST) methodology enables an analyst to rapidly construct realistic models for scenarios for which an a priori discovery of event ordering is either cumbersome or impossible (especially those that exhibit inconsistent or variable event ordering, which are difficult to represent in an event tree analysis). Each scenario produced by OBEST is automatically associated with a likelihood estimate because probabilistic branching is integral to the object model definition. The OBEST method uses a recursive algorithm to solve the object model and identify all possible scenarios and their associated probabilities. Since scenario likelihoods are developed directly by the solution algorithm, they need not be computed by statistical inference based on Monte Carlo observations (as required by some discrete event simulation methods). Thus, OBEST is not only much more computationally efficient than these simulation methods, but it also discovers scenarios that have extremely low probabilities as a natural analytical result--scenarios that would likely be missed by a Monte Carlo-based method. This report documents the OBEST methodology, the demonstration software that implements it, and provides example OBEST models for several different application domains, including interactions among failing interdependent infrastructure systems, circuit analysis for fire risk evaluation in nuclear power plants, and aviation safety studies.

  5. Mean importance measures for groups of events in fault trees

    SciTech Connect

    Haskin, F.E.; Huang, Min; Sasser, M.K.; Stack, D.W.

    1993-10-12

    The method of moments is applied to precisely determine the mean values of three importance measures: risk reduction, partial derivative, and variance reduction. Variance reduction calculations, in particular, are significantly improved by eliminating the imprecision associated with Monte Carlo estimates. The three importance measures are extended to permit analyses of the relative importance of groups of basic and initiating events. The partial derivative importance measure is extended by assessing the contribution of a group of events to the gradient of the top event frequency. The group importance measures are quantified for the overall fuel damage equation and for 14 dominant accident sequences from an independent probabilistic safety assessment of the K Production Reactor. This application demonstrates both the utility and the versatility of the group importance measures.

  6. Fuzzy fault tree assessment based on improved AHP for fire and explosion accidents for steel oil storage tanks.

    PubMed

    Shi, Lei; Shuai, Jian; Xu, Kui

    2014-08-15

    Fire and explosion accidents of steel oil storage tanks (FEASOST) occur occasionally during the petroleum and chemical industry production and storage processes and often have devastating impact on lives, the environment and property. To contribute towards the development of a quantitative approach for assessing the occurrence probability of FEASOST, a fault tree of FEASOST is constructed that identifies various potential causes. Traditional fault tree analysis (FTA) can achieve quantitative evaluation if the failure data of all of the basic events (BEs) are available, which is almost impossible due to the lack of detailed data, as well as other uncertainties. This paper makes an attempt to perform FTA of FEASOST by a hybrid application between an expert elicitation based improved analysis hierarchy process (AHP) and fuzzy set theory, and the occurrence possibility of FEASOST is estimated for an oil depot in China. A comparison between statistical data and calculated data using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA) based on traditional and improved AHP is also made. Sensitivity and importance analysis has been performed to identify the most crucial BEs leading to FEASOST that will provide insights into how managers should focus effective mitigation.

  7. Using multiple data sets to populate probabilistic volcanic event trees

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Newhall, C.G.; Pallister, John S.

    2014-01-01

    The key parameters one needs to forecast outcomes of volcanic unrest are hidden kilometers beneath the Earth’s surface, and volcanic systems are so complex that there will invariably be stochastic elements in the evolution of any unrest. Fortunately, there is sufficient regularity in behaviour that some, perhaps many, eruptions can be forecast with enough certainty for populations to be evacuated and kept safe. Volcanologists charged with forecasting eruptions must try to understand each volcanic system well enough that unrest can be interpreted in terms of pre-eruptive process, but must simultaneously recognize and convey uncertainties in their assessment. We have found that use of event trees helps to focus discussion, integrate data from multiple sources, reach consensus among scientists about both pre-eruptive process and uncertainties and, in some cases, to explain all of this to officials. Figure 1 shows a generic volcanic event tree from Newhall and Hoblitt (2002) that can be modified as needed for each specific volcano. This paper reviews how we and our colleagues have used such trees during a number of volcanic crises worldwide, for rapid hazard assessments in situations in which more formal expert elicitations could not be conducted. We describe how Multiple Data Sets can be used to estimate probabilities at each node and branch. We also present case histories of probability estimation during crises, how the estimates were used by public officials, and some suggestions for future improvements.

  8. Savanna Tree Seedlings are Physiologically Tolerant to Nighttime Freeze Events

    PubMed Central

    O’Keefe, Kimberly; Nippert, Jesse B.; Swemmer, Anthony M.

    2016-01-01

    Freeze events can be important disturbances in savanna ecosystems, yet the interactive effect of freezing with other environmental drivers on plant functioning is unknown. Here, we investigated physiological responses of South African tree seedlings to interactions of water availability and freezing temperatures. We grew widely distributed South African tree species (Colophospermum mopane, Combretum apiculatum, Acacia nigrescens, and Cassia abbreviata) under well-watered and water-limited conditions and exposed individuals to nighttime freeze events. Of the four species studied here, C. mopane was the most tolerant of lower water availability. However, all species were similarly tolerant to nighttime freezing and recovered within one week following the last freezing event. We also show that water limitation somewhat increased freezing tolerance in one of the species (C. mopane). Therefore, water limitation, but not freezing temperatures, may restrict the distribution of these species, although the interactions of these stressors may have species-specific impacts on plant physiology. Ultimately, we show that unique physiologies can exist among dominant species within communities and that combined stresses may play a currently unidentified role in driving the function of certain species within southern Africa. PMID:26870065

  9. Savanna Tree Seedlings are Physiologically Tolerant to Nighttime Freeze Events.

    PubMed

    O'Keefe, Kimberly; Nippert, Jesse B; Swemmer, Anthony M

    2016-01-01

    Freeze events can be important disturbances in savanna ecosystems, yet the interactive effect of freezing with other environmental drivers on plant functioning is unknown. Here, we investigated physiological responses of South African tree seedlings to interactions of water availability and freezing temperatures. We grew widely distributed South African tree species (Colophospermum mopane, Combretum apiculatum, Acacia nigrescens, and Cassia abbreviata) under well-watered and water-limited conditions and exposed individuals to nighttime freeze events. Of the four species studied here, C. mopane was the most tolerant of lower water availability. However, all species were similarly tolerant to nighttime freezing and recovered within one week following the last freezing event. We also show that water limitation somewhat increased freezing tolerance in one of the species (C. mopane). Therefore, water limitation, but not freezing temperatures, may restrict the distribution of these species, although the interactions of these stressors may have species-specific impacts on plant physiology. Ultimately, we show that unique physiologies can exist among dominant species within communities and that combined stresses may play a currently unidentified role in driving the function of certain species within southern Africa. PMID:26870065

  10. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept.

  11. RAVEN. Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

    SciTech Connect

    Alfonsi, Andrea; Rabiti, Cristian; Mandelli, Diego; Cogliati, Joshua; Kinoshita, Robert

    2014-07-01

    Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

  12. RAVEN: Dynamic Event Tree Approach Level III Milestone

    SciTech Connect

    Andrea Alfonsi; Cristian Rabiti; Diego Mandelli; Joshua Cogliati; Robert Kinoshita

    2013-07-01

    Conventional Event-Tree (ET) based methodologies are extensively used as tools to perform reliability and safety assessment of complex and critical engineering systems. One of the disadvantages of these methods is that timing/sequencing of events and system dynamics are not explicitly accounted for in the analysis. In order to overcome these limitations several techniques, also know as Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (DPRA), have been developed. Monte-Carlo (MC) and Dynamic Event Tree (DET) are two of the most widely used D-PRA methodologies to perform safety assessment of Nuclear Power Plants (NPP). In the past two years, the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) has developed its own tool to perform Dynamic PRA: RAVEN (Reactor Analysis and Virtual control ENvironment). RAVEN has been designed to perform two main tasks: 1) control logic driver for the new Thermo-Hydraulic code RELAP-7 and 2) post-processing tool. In the first task, RAVEN acts as a deterministic controller in which the set of control logic laws (user defined) monitors the RELAP-7 simulation and controls the activation of specific systems. Moreover, the control logic infrastructure is used to model stochastic events, such as components failures, and perform uncertainty propagation. Such stochastic modeling is deployed using both MC and DET algorithms. In the second task, RAVEN processes the large amount of data generated by RELAP-7 using data-mining based algorithms. This report focuses on the analysis of dynamic stochastic systems using the newly developed RAVEN DET capability. As an example, a DPRA analysis, using DET, of a simplified pressurized water reactor for a Station Black-Out (SBO) scenario is presented.

  13. Identification and classification of dynamic event tree scenarios via possibilistic clustering: application to a steam generator tube rupture event.

    PubMed

    Mercurio, D; Podofillini, L; Zio, E; Dang, V N

    2009-11-01

    This paper illustrates a method to identify and classify scenarios generated in a dynamic event tree (DET) analysis. Identification and classification are carried out by means of an evolutionary possibilistic fuzzy C-means clustering algorithm which takes into account not only the final system states but also the timing of the events and the process evolution. An application is considered with regards to the scenarios generated following a steam generator tube rupture in a nuclear power plant. The scenarios are generated by the accident dynamic simulator (ADS), coupled to a RELAP code that simulates the thermo-hydraulic behavior of the plant and to an operators' crew model, which simulates their cognitive and procedures-guided responses. A set of 60 scenarios has been generated by the ADS DET tool. The classification approach has grouped the 60 scenarios into 4 classes of dominant scenarios, one of which was not anticipated a priori but was "discovered" by the classifier. The proposed approach may be considered as a first effort towards the application of identification and classification approaches to scenarios post-processing for real-scale dynamic safety assessments. PMID:19819366

  14. 137Cs distribution among annual rings of different tree species contaminated after the Chernobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Soukhova, N V; Fesenko, S V; Klein, D; Spiridonov, S I; Sanzharova, N I; Badot, P M

    2003-01-01

    The distributions of 137Cs among annual rings of Pinus sylvestris and Betula pendula at four experimental sites located in the most contaminated areas in the Russian territory after the Chernobyl accident in 1986 were studied. Trees of different ages were sampled from four forest sites with different tree compositions and soil properties. The data analysis shows that 137Cs is very mobile in wood and the 1986 rings do not show the highest contamination. The difference between pine and birch in the pattern of radial 137Cs distribution can be satisfactorily explained by the difference in radial ray composition. 137Cs radial distribution in the wood can be described as the sum of two exponential functions for both species. The function parameters are height, age and species dependent. The distribution of 137Cs in birch wood reveals much more pronounced dependence on site characteristics and/or the age of trees than pines. The data obtained can be used to assess 137Cs content in wood. PMID:12683726

  15. Accident and Off Normal Response and Recovery from Multi Canister Overpack (MCO) Processing Events

    SciTech Connect

    ALDERMAN, C.A.

    2000-09-19

    In the process of removing spent nuclear fuel (SNF) from the K Basins through its subsequent packaging, drymg, transportation and storage steps, the SNF Project must be able to respond to all anticipated or foreseeable off-normal and accident events that may occur. Response procedures and recovery plans need to be in place, personnel training established and implemented to ensure the project will be capable of appropriate actions. To establish suitable project planning, these events must first be identified and analyzed for their expected impact to the project. This document assesses all off-normal and accident events for their potential cross-facility or Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) process reversal impact. Table 1 provides the methodology for establishing the event planning level and these events are provided in Table 2 along with the general response and recovery planning. Accidents and off-normal events of the SNF Project have been evaluated and are identified in the appropriate facility Safety Analysis Report (SAR) or in the transportation Safety Analysis Report for Packaging (SARP). Hazards and accidents are summarized from these safety analyses and listed in separate tables for each facility and the transportation system in Appendix A, along with identified off-normal events. The tables identify the general response time required to ensure a stable state after the event, governing response documents, and the events with potential cross-facility or SNF process reversal impacts. The event closure is predicated on stable state response time, impact to operations and the mitigated annual occurrence frequency of the event as developed in the hazard analysis process.

  16. Fault Tree Analysis: An Operations Research Tool for Identifying and Reducing Undesired Events in Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barker, Bruce O.; Petersen, Paul D.

    This paper explores the fault-tree analysis approach to isolating failure modes within a system. Fault tree investigates potentially undesirable events and then looks for failures in sequence that would lead to their occurring. Relationships among these events are symbolized by AND or OR logic gates, AND used when single events must coexist to…

  17. Atmospheric direct uptake and long-term fate of radiocesium in trees after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Mahara, Yasunori; Ohta, Tomoko; Ogawa, Hideki; Kumata, Atsushi

    2014-01-01

    Large areas of forests were radioactively contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and forest decontamination is now an important problem in Japan. However, whether trees absorb radioactive fallout from soil via the roots or directly from the atmosphere through the bark and leaves is unclear. We measured the uptake of radiocesium by trees in forests heavily contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident. The radiocesium concentrations in sapwood of two tree species, the deciduous broadleaved konara (Quercus serrata) and the evergreen coniferous sugi (Cryptomeria japonica), were higher than that in heartwood. The concentration profiles showed anomalous directionality in konara and non-directionality in sugi, indicating that most radiocesium in the tree rings was directly absorbed from the atmosphere via bark and leaves rather than via roots. Numerical modelling shows that the maximum (137)Cs concentration in the xylem of konara will be achieved 28 years after the accident. Conversely, the values for sugi will monotonously decrease because of the small transfer factor in this species. Overall, xylem (137)Cs concentrations will not be affected by root uptake if active root systems occur 10 cm below the soil. PMID:25409781

  18. Atmospheric direct uptake and long-term fate of radiocesium in trees after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Mahara, Yasunori; Ohta, Tomoko; Ogawa, Hideki; Kumata, Atsushi

    2014-01-01

    Large areas of forests were radioactively contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident of 2011, and forest decontamination is now an important problem in Japan. However, whether trees absorb radioactive fallout from soil via the roots or directly from the atmosphere through the bark and leaves is unclear. We measured the uptake of radiocesium by trees in forests heavily contaminated by the Fukushima nuclear accident. The radiocesium concentrations in sapwood of two tree species, the deciduous broadleaved konara (Quercus serrata) and the evergreen coniferous sugi (Cryptomeria japonica), were higher than that in heartwood. The concentration profiles showed anomalous directionality in konara and non-directionality in sugi, indicating that most radiocesium in the tree rings was directly absorbed from the atmosphere via bark and leaves rather than via roots. Numerical modelling shows that the maximum (137)Cs concentration in the xylem of konara will be achieved 28 years after the accident. Conversely, the values for sugi will monotonously decrease because of the small transfer factor in this species. Overall, xylem (137)Cs concentrations will not be affected by root uptake if active root systems occur 10 cm below the soil.

  19. The influence of tree traits and storm event characteristics on stemflow production from isolated deciduous trees in an urban park

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlyle-Moses, D. E.; Schooling, J. T.

    2014-12-01

    Urban tree canopy processes affect the volume and biogeochemistry of inputs to the hydrological cycle in cities. We studied stemflow from 37 isolated deciduous trees in an urban park in Kamloops, British Columbia which has a semi-arid climate dominated by small precipitation events. Precipitation and stemflow were measured on an event basis from June 12, 2012 to November 3, 2013. To clarify the effect of canopy traits on stemflow thresholds, rates, yields, percent, and funneling ratios, we analyzed branch angles, bark roughness, tree size, cover, leaf size, and branch and leader counts. High branch angles promoted stemflow in all trees, while bark roughness influenced stemflow differently for single- and multi-leader trees. The association between stemflow and numerous leaders deserves further study. Columnar-form trees often partitioned a large percentage of precipitation into stemflow, with event-scale values as high as 27.9 % recorded for an Armstrong Freeman Maple (Acer x freemanii 'Armstrong'). Under growing-season conditions funneling ratios as high as 196.9 were derived for an American Beech (Fagus grandifolia) individual. Among meteorological variables, rain depth was strongly correlated with stemflow yields; intra-storm break duration, rainfall intensity, rainfall inclination, wind speed, and vapour pressure deficit also played roles. Greater stemflow was associated with leafless canopies and with rain or mixed events versus snow. Results can inform climate-sensitive selection and siting of urban trees towards integrated rainwater management. For example, previous studies suggest that the reduction in storm-water generation by urban trees is accomplished through canopy interception loss alone. However, trees that partition large quantities of precipitation canopy-drainage as stemflow to the base of their trunks, where it has the potential to infiltrate into the soil media rather than fall on impervious surfaces as throughfall, may assist in reducing

  20. Microfibril angle in wood of Scots pine trees (Pinus sylvestris) after irradiation from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident.

    PubMed

    Tulik, Mirela; Rusin, Aleksandra

    2005-03-01

    The secondary cell wall structure of tracheids of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), especially the angle of microfibrils in the S(2) layer, was examined in wood deposited prior to and after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. Microscopic analysis was carried out on wood samples collected in October 1997 from breast height of three pine trees 16, 30 and 42 years old. The polluted site was located in a distance of 5 km south from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant where radioactive contamination in 1997 was 3.7 x 10(5) kBq m(-2). Anatomical analysis showed that the structure of the secondary cell wall in tracheids formed after the Chernobyl accident was changed. Changes occurred both in S(2) and S(3) layers. The angle of microfibrils in S(2) layer in wood deposited after the Chernobyl accident was different in comparison to this measured in wood formed prior to the disaster. The intensity of the changes, i.e. alteration of the microfibrils angle in S(2) layer and unusual pattern of the S(3) layer, depended on the age of the tree and was most intensive in a young tree.

  1. Use of Bayesian event trees in semi-quantitative volcano eruption forecasting and hazard analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wright, Heather; Pallister, John; Newhall, Chris

    2015-04-01

    Use of Bayesian event trees to forecast eruptive activity during volcano crises is an increasingly common practice for the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) in collaboration with foreign counterparts. This semi-quantitative approach combines conceptual models of volcanic processes with current monitoring data and patterns of occurrence to reach consensus probabilities. This approach allows a response team to draw upon global datasets, local observations, and expert judgment, where the relative influence of these data depends upon the availability and quality of monitoring data and the degree to which the volcanic history is known. The construction of such event trees additionally relies upon existence and use of relevant global databases and documented past periods of unrest. Because relevant global databases may be underpopulated or nonexistent, uncertainty in probability estimations may be large. Our 'hybrid' approach of combining local and global monitoring data and expert judgment facilitates discussion and constructive debate between disciplines: including seismology, gas geochemistry, geodesy, petrology, physical volcanology and technology/engineering, where difference in opinion between response team members contributes to definition of the uncertainty in the probability estimations. In collaboration with foreign colleagues, we have created event trees for numerous areas experiencing volcanic unrest. Event trees are created for a specified time frame and are updated, revised, or replaced as the crisis proceeds. Creation of an initial tree is often prompted by a change in monitoring data, such that rapid assessment of probability is needed. These trees are intended as a vehicle for discussion and a way to document relevant data and models, where the target audience is the scientists themselves. However, the probabilities derived through the event-tree analysis can also be used to help inform communications with emergency managers and the

  2. Tree ring correlation between prehistoric landslides and abrupt tectonic events in Seattle, washington.

    PubMed

    Jacoby, G C; Williams, P L; Buckley, B M

    1992-12-01

    Radiocarbon ages of submerged trees on landslide deposits in Lake Washington, Seattle, indicate that the most recent slides in three separate areas may have occurred simultaneously about 1000 years ago. Tree ring crossdating shows that seven bark-bearing trees from one of these recent slides and a tree 23 kilometers to the northwest in a probable tsunami deposit on the shore of Puget Sound died in the same season of the same year. The close coincidence among the most recent lake landslides, a probable tsunami, abrupt subsidence, and other possible seismic events gives evidence for a strong prehistoric earthquake in the Seattle region. PMID:17742529

  3. An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1998-08-01

    A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

  4. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events.

    PubMed

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-08-17

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units.

  5. Coarse-grained event tree analysis for quantifying Hodgkin-Huxley neuronal network dynamics.

    PubMed

    Sun, Yi; Rangan, Aaditya V; Zhou, Douglas; Cai, David

    2012-02-01

    We present an event tree analysis of studying the dynamics of the Hodgkin-Huxley (HH) neuronal networks. Our study relies on a coarse-grained projection to event trees and to the event chains that comprise these trees by using a statistical collection of spatial-temporal sequences of relevant physiological observables (such as sequences of spiking multiple neurons). This projection can retain information about network dynamics that covers multiple features, swiftly and robustly. We demonstrate that for even small differences in inputs, some dynamical regimes of HH networks contain sufficiently higher order statistics as reflected in event chains within the event tree analysis. Therefore, this analysis is effective in discriminating small differences in inputs. Moreover, we use event trees to analyze the results computed from an efficient library-based numerical method proposed in our previous work, where a pre-computed high resolution data library of typical neuronal trajectories during the interval of an action potential (spike) allows us to avoid resolving the spikes in detail. In this way, we can evolve the HH networks using time steps one order of magnitude larger than the typical time steps used for resolving the trajectories without the library, while achieving comparable statistical accuracy in terms of average firing rate and power spectra of voltage traces. Our numerical simulation results show that the library method is efficient in the sense that the results generated by using this numerical method with much larger time steps contain sufficiently high order statistical structure of firing events that are similar to the ones obtained using a regular HH solver. We use our event tree analysis to demonstrate these statistical similarities.

  6. A major sporting event does not necessarily mean an increased workload for accident and emergency departments. Euro96 Group of Accident and Emergency Departments

    PubMed Central

    Cooke, M. W.; Allan, T. F.; Wilson, S.

    1999-01-01

    AIM: To determine whether there were any changes in attendance at accident and emergency departments that could be related to international football matches (Euro96 tournament). METHOD: Fourteen accident and emergency departments (seven adjacent to and seven distant from a Euro96 venue) provided their daily attendance figures for a nine week period: three weeks before, during, and after the tournament. The relation between daily attendance rates and Euro96 football matches was assessed using a generalised linear model and analysis of variance. The model took into account underlying trends in attendance rates including day of the week. RESULTS: The 14 hospitals contributed 172 366 attendances (mean number of daily attendances 195). No association was shown between the number of attendances at accident and emergency departments and the day of the football match, whether the departments were near to or distant from stadia or the occurrence of a home nation match. The only observed independent predictors of variation were day of the week and week of the year. Attendance rates were significantly higher on Sunday and/or Monday; Monday was about 9% busier than the daily average. Increasing attendance was observed over time for 86% of the hospitals. CONCLUSION: Large sports tournaments do not increase the number of patients attending accident and emergency departments. Special measures are not required for major sporting events over and above the capacity of an accident and emergency department to increase its throughput on other days. 


 PMID:10522636

  7. TRACE/PARCS Core Modeling of a BWR/5 for Accident Analysis of ATWS Events

    SciTech Connect

    Cuadra A.; Baek J.; Cheng, L.; Aronson, A.; Diamond, D.; Yarsky, P.

    2013-11-10

    The TRACE/PARCS computational package [1, 2] isdesigned to be applicable to the analysis of light water reactor operational transients and accidents where the coupling between the neutron kinetics (PARCS) and the thermal-hydraulics and thermal-mechanics (TRACE) is important. TRACE/PARCS has been assessed for itsapplicability to anticipated transients without scram(ATWS) [3]. The challenge, addressed in this study, is to develop a sufficiently rigorous input model that would be acceptable for use in ATWS analysis. Two types of ATWS events were of interest, a turbine trip and a closure of main steam isolation valves (MSIVs). In the first type, initiated by turbine trip, the concern is that the core will become unstable and large power oscillations will occur. In the second type,initiated by MSIV closure,, the concern is the amount of energy being placed into containment and the resulting emergency depressurization. Two separate TRACE/PARCS models of a BWR/5 were developed to analyze these ATWS events at MELLLA+ (maximum extended load line limit plus)operating conditions. One model [4] was used for analysis of ATWS events leading to instability (ATWS-I);the other [5] for ATWS events leading to emergency depressurization (ATWS-ED). Both models included a large portion of the nuclear steam supply system and controls, and a detailed core model, presented henceforth.

  8. Human decision error (HUMDEE) trees

    SciTech Connect

    Ostrom, L.T.

    1993-08-01

    Graphical presentations of human actions in incident and accident sequences have been used for many years. However, for the most part, human decision making has been underrepresented in these trees. This paper presents a method of incorporating the human decision process into graphical presentations of incident/accident sequences. This presentation is in the form of logic trees. These trees are called Human Decision Error Trees or HUMDEE for short. The primary benefit of HUMDEE trees is that they graphically illustrate what else the individuals involved in the event could have done to prevent either the initiation or continuation of the event. HUMDEE trees also present the alternate paths available at the operator decision points in the incident/accident sequence. This is different from the Technique for Human Error Rate Prediction (THERP) event trees. There are many uses of these trees. They can be used for incident/accident investigations to show what other courses of actions were available and for training operators. The trees also have a consequence component so that not only the decision can be explored, also the consequence of that decision.

  9. Widespread Amazon forest tree mortality from a single cross-basin squall line event

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Negrón-Juárez, Robinson I.; Chambers, Jeffrey Q.; Guimaraes, Giuliano; Zeng, Hongcheng; Raupp, Carlos F. M.; Marra, Daniel M.; Ribeiro, Gabriel H. P. M.; Saatchi, Sassan S.; Nelson, Bruce W.; Higuchi, Niro

    2010-08-01

    Climate change is expected to increase the intensity of extreme precipitation events in Amazonia that in turn might produce more forest blowdowns associated with convective storms. Yet quantitative tree mortality associated with convective storms has never been reported across Amazonia, representing an important additional source of carbon to the atmosphere. Here we demonstrate that a single squall line (aligned cluster of convective storm cells) propagating across Amazonia in January, 2005, caused widespread forest tree mortality and may have contributed to the elevated mortality observed that year. Forest plot data demonstrated that the same year represented the second highest mortality rate over a 15-year annual monitoring interval. Over the Manaus region, disturbed forest patches generated by the squall followed a power-law distribution (scaling exponent α = 1.48) and produced a mortality of 0.3-0.5 million trees, equivalent to 30% of the observed annual deforestation reported in 2005 over the same area. Basin-wide, potential tree mortality from this one event was estimated at 542 ± 121 million trees, equivalent to 23% of the mean annual biomass accumulation estimated for these forests. Our results highlight the vulnerability of Amazon trees to wind-driven mortality associated with convective storms. Storm intensity is expected to increase with a warming climate, which would result in additional tree mortality and carbon release to the atmosphere, with the potential to further warm the climate system.

  10. Persistent versus transient tree encroachment of temperate peat bogs: effects of climate warming and drought events.

    PubMed

    Heijmans, Monique M P D; van der Knaap, Yasmijn A M; Holmgren, Milena; Limpens, Juul

    2013-07-01

    Peatlands store approximately 30% of global soil carbon, most in moss-dominated bogs. Future climatic changes, such as changes in precipitation patterns and warming, are expected to affect peat bog vegetation composition and thereby its long-term carbon sequestration capacity. Theoretical work suggests that an episode of rapid environmental change is more likely to trigger transitions to alternative ecosystem states than a gradual, but equally large, change in conditions. We used a dynamic vegetation model to explore the impacts of drought events and increased temperature on vegetation composition of temperate peat bogs. We analyzed the consequences of six patterns of summer drought events combined with five temperature scenarios to test whether an open peat bog dominated by moss (Sphagnum) could shift to a tree-dominated state. Unexpectedly, neither a gradual decrease in the amount of summer precipitation nor the occurrence of a number of extremely dry summers in a row could shift the moss-dominated peat bog permanently into a tree-dominated peat bog. The increase in tree biomass during drought events was unable to trigger positive feedbacks that keep the ecosystem in a tree-dominated state after a return to previous 'normal' rainfall conditions. In contrast, temperature increases from 1 °C onward already shifted peat bogs into tree-dominated ecosystems. In our simulations, drought events facilitated tree establishment, but temperature determined how much tree biomass could develop. Our results suggest that under current climatic conditions, peat bog vegetation is rather resilient to drought events, but very sensitive to temperature increases, indicating that future warming is likely to trigger persistent vegetation shifts.

  11. EVENT TREE ANALYSIS AT THE SAVANNAH RIVER SITE: A CASE HISTORY

    SciTech Connect

    Williams, R

    2009-05-25

    At the Savannah River Site (SRS), a Department of Energy (DOE) installation in west-central South Carolina there is a unique geologic stratum that exists at depth that has the potential to cause surface settlement resulting from a seismic event. In the past the particular stratum in question has been remediated via pressure grouting, however the benefits of remediation have always been debatable. Recently the SRS has attempted to frame the issue in terms of risk via an event tree or logic tree analysis. This paper describes that analysis, including the input data required.

  12. Tree-ring dated landslide movements and their relationship to seismic events in southwestern Montana, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Carrara, P.E.; O'Neill, J. M.

    2003-01-01

    To determine periods of incremental landslide movement and their possible relationship to regional seismic events, the tree-ring records of 32 titled and damaged conifers at three sites on landslides in the Gravelly Range of southwestern Montana were examined. Several signs of disturbance in the tree-ring record indicating landslide movement were observed. Commonly, the tree-ring record displayed a marked reduction in annual ring width and/or the reaction wood formation. The tree-ring records from the three landslide sites indicate multiple periods of movement during the 20th century. Many of the periods of movement indicated by the strongest signals (most trees) at the sites occured the year following significant earthquakes in the region. Those seismic events for which evidence in the tree-ring record was found at one or more of the three sites are the 1983 Borah Peak, 1959 Hebgen Lake, 1935 Helena, 1925 Clarkson, and 1908 Virginia City earthquakes. This study suggests that many of the landslide movements were triggered by, or are coincident with, earthquakes as much as 200 km from the study area. ?? 2003 Elsevier Science (USA). All rights reserved.

  13. The use of incomplete global data for probabilistic event trees: challenges and strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ogburn, Sarah; Harpel, Chris; Pesicek, Jeremy; Wellik, Jay; Wright, Heather; Pallister, John

    2016-04-01

    To prevent volcanic crises from becoming disasters, the USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) helps foreign counterparts to assess volcanic unrest, activity, and hazards before and during crises. Bayesian event trees are frequently used to facilitate discussion, reach consensus, evaluate uncertainty, and produce probabilistic forecasts of volcanic activity. VDAP uses a "method of multiple data sets" (Newhall & Pallister 2014), which combines conceptual and physical models of volcanic processes, current monitoring data, patterns of prior occurrence, and expert judgement from multiple disciplines to assign probabilities for each node of an event tree. The global volcanic record is used to inform our conceptual models, improve uncertainty estimates by leveraging larger datasets, and to fill in gaps where local information is sparse. For example, event trees for the recent Sinabung, Indonesia eruption relied upon local monitoring data-streams, but also on the global frequency-magnitude (VEI) of eruptions. A variety of databases are used, including the Smithsonian Institution's Global Volcanism Program (GVP) database, WOVOdat, GeoDIVA, DomeHaz, and FlowDat. Inhomogeneity and incompleteness of the global record present challenges for the use of such data in event trees, resulting in large and difficult to quantify uncertainties. Under-recording of small events, lack of documentation of 'failed eruptions', and variability of geophysical monitoring data-streams present particular problems. This contribution seeks to: (1) review VDAP's use of global data for probabilistic event tree creation; (2) summarize the problems presented by under-recording, spatial and temporal inhomogeneity, and incompleteness of the global record; (3) highlight ways to compensate for these effects, such as the development of hierarchical models to borrow strength from the global record while retaining local information, and the use of ranges in expert judgements to assess

  14. K West Basin Integrated Water Treatment System (IWTS) E-F Annular Filter Vessel Accident Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    2000-01-10

    Four bounding accidents postulated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing a hydrogen explosion, and a fire breaching filter vessel and enclosure. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

  15. K West Basin Integrated Water Treatment System (IWTS) E-F Annular Filter Vessel Accident Calculations

    SciTech Connect

    RITTMANN, P.D.

    1999-10-07

    Three bounding accidents postdated for the K West Basin integrated water treatment system are evaluated against applicable risk evaluation guidelines. The accidents are a spray leak during fuel retrieval, spray leak during backflushing, and a hydrogen explosion. Event trees and accident probabilities are estimated. In all cases, the unmitigated dose consequences are below the risk evaluation guidelines.

  16. 49 CFR 225.9 - Telephonic reports of certain accidents/incidents and other events.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... of rail accidents for the National Transportation Safety Board (49 CFR part 840) and the Research and..., 49 CFR 171.15). FRA Locomotive Safety Standards require certain locomotive accidents to be reported by telephone to the NRC at the same toll-free number (800-424-0201). 49 CFR 229.17. (c) Contents...

  17. 49 CFR 225.9 - Telephonic reports of certain accidents/incidents and other events.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... of rail accidents for the National Transportation Safety Board (49 CFR part 840) and the Research and..., 49 CFR 171.15). FRA Locomotive Safety Standards require certain locomotive accidents to be reported by telephone to the NRC at the same toll-free number (800-424-0201). 49 CFR 229.17. (c) Contents...

  18. Responses of tree species to heat waves and extreme heat events.

    PubMed

    Teskey, Robert; Wertin, Timothy; Bauweraerts, Ingvar; Ameye, Maarten; McGuire, Mary Anne; Steppe, Kathy

    2015-09-01

    The number and intensity of heat waves has increased, and this trend is likely to continue throughout the 21st century. Often, heat waves are accompanied by drought conditions. It is projected that the global land area experiencing heat waves will double by 2020, and quadruple by 2040. Extreme heat events can impact a wide variety of tree functions. At the leaf level, photosynthesis is reduced, photooxidative stress increases, leaves abscise and the growth rate of remaining leaves decreases. In some species, stomatal conductance increases at high temperatures, which may be a mechanism for leaf cooling. At the whole plant level, heat stress can decrease growth and shift biomass allocation. When drought stress accompanies heat waves, the negative effects of heat stress are exacerbated and can lead to tree mortality. However, some species exhibit remarkable tolerance to thermal stress. Responses include changes that minimize stress on photosynthesis and reductions in dark respiration. Although there have been few studies to date, there is evidence of within-species genetic variation in thermal tolerance, which could be important to exploit in production forestry systems. Understanding the mechanisms of differing tree responses to extreme temperature events may be critically important for understanding how tree species will be affected by climate change.

  19. Tracing footprints of environmental events in tree ring chemistry using neutron activation analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahin, Dagistan

    The aim of this study is to identify environmental effects on tree-ring chemistry. It is known that industrial pollution, volcanic eruptions, dust storms, acid rain and similar events can cause substantial changes in soil chemistry. Establishing whether a particular group of trees is sensitive to these changes in soil environment and registers them in the elemental chemistry of contemporary growth rings is the over-riding goal of any Dendrochemistry research. In this study, elemental concentrations were measured in tree-ring samples of absolutely dated eleven modern forest trees, grown in the Mediterranean region, Turkey, collected and dated by the Malcolm and Carolyn Wiener Laboratory for Aegean and Near Eastern Dendrochronology laboratory at Cornell University. Correlations between measured elemental concentrations in the tree-ring samples were analyzed using statistical tests to answer two questions. Does the current concentration of a particular element depend on any other element within the tree? And, are there any elements showing correlated abnormal concentration changes across the majority of the trees? Based on the detailed analysis results, the low mobility of sodium and bromine, positive correlations between calcium, zinc and manganese, positive correlations between trace elements lanthanum, samarium, antimony, and gold within tree-rings were recognized. Moreover, zinc, lanthanum, samarium and bromine showed strong, positive correlations among the trees and were identified as possible environmental signature elements. New Dendrochemistry information found in this study would be also useful in explaining tree physiology and elemental chemistry in Pinus nigra species grown in Turkey. Elemental concentrations in tree-ring samples were measured using Neutron Activation Analysis (NAA) at the Pennsylvania State University Radiation Science and Engineering Center (RSEC). Through this study, advanced methodologies for methodological, computational and

  20. Causal Factors and Adverse Events of Aviation Accidents and Incidents Related to Integrated Vehicle Health Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reveley, Mary S.; Briggs, Jeffrey L.; Evans, Joni K.; Jones, Sharon M.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Leone, Karen M.; Sandifer, Carl E.

    2011-01-01

    Causal factors in aviation accidents and incidents related to system/component failure/malfunction (SCFM) were examined for Federal Aviation Regulation Parts 121 and 135 operations to establish future requirements for the NASA Aviation Safety Program s Integrated Vehicle Health Management (IVHM) Project. Data analyzed includes National Transportation Safety Board (NSTB) accident data (1988 to 2003), Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) incident data (1988 to 2003), and Aviation Safety Reporting System (ASRS) incident data (1993 to 2008). Failure modes and effects analyses were examined to identify possible modes of SCFM. A table of potential adverse conditions was developed to help evaluate IVHM research technologies. Tables present details of specific SCFM for the incidents and accidents. Of the 370 NTSB accidents affected by SCFM, 48 percent involved the engine or fuel system, and 31 percent involved landing gear or hydraulic failure and malfunctions. A total of 35 percent of all SCFM accidents were caused by improper maintenance. Of the 7732 FAA database incidents affected by SCFM, 33 percent involved landing gear or hydraulics, and 33 percent involved the engine and fuel system. The most frequent SCFM found in ASRS were turbine engine, pressurization system, hydraulic main system, flight management system/flight management computer, and engine. Because the IVHM Project does not address maintenance issues, and landing gear and hydraulic systems accidents are usually not fatal, the focus of research should be those SCFMs that occur in the engine/fuel and flight control/structures systems as well as power systems.

  1. Response of anatomical structures in tree roots to an erosion event on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Liping; Wang, Xiaodan; Hong, Jiangtao

    2014-01-01

    Exposed roots have been used in dendrogeomorphology to determine erosion rates. However, few studies have focused on the changes in ring width and in the anatomical properties of hardwood roots exposed by soil erosion at a macroscopic and microscopic level. In this study, we identified the ring width and the anatomical response of hardwood root to a denudation event and applied these anatomical findings to the reconstruction and quantification of soil erosion rates. A total of 136 cross sections (54 from buried roots and 79 from exposed roots of 25 trees) were sampled in the study area. Measurements of the widths of the growth rings, the average vessel area in earlywood, the average vessel area per ring, and the vessel number per ring were performed with WinDENDRO and ImageJ. Our results show that the analysis of vessel features is a useful tool to identify soil erosion events recorded during the life of a tree. A sharp decrease of nearly 50% in the vessel area of earlywood was an important signature indicating the exposure of tree roots caused by denudation. Soil erosion rates derived from exposed roots varied between 1.04 and 3.61 mm y- 1 in the southeastern Tibetan Plateau.

  2. Radioactive contamination of nest materials of the Eurasian Tree Sparrow Passer montanus due to the Fukushima nuclear accident: The significance in the first year.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Shin; Kasahara, Satoe; Morimoto, Gen; Mikami, Osamu K; Watanabe, Mamoru; Ueda, Keisuke

    2015-11-01

    The 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident contaminated large areas of eastern and northeastern Japan, releasing vast amounts of radiation. Here we investigated radioactive contamination of the nest materials of the Eurasian Tree Sparrow Passer montanus from the breeding season of 2011 directly after the accident to the next breeding season of 2012 at two sites. In Tokyo (222 km southwest of the plant), ambient dose rates in the nestboxes were lower than those in Ibaraki (175 km southwest of the plant), where the levels of 2011 were higher than those of 2012. Further, the amount of radioactive Cs in each nest increased with the increase in nest weight, with a higher increment at Ibaraki than at Tokyo. These data suggested higher nest contamination levels in the breeding season directly after a nuclear accident than in later seasons, and an increment of nest contamination levels via nest materials of birds.

  3. Radioactive contamination of nest materials of the Eurasian Tree Sparrow Passer montanus due to the Fukushima nuclear accident: The significance in the first year.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Shin; Kasahara, Satoe; Morimoto, Gen; Mikami, Osamu K; Watanabe, Mamoru; Ueda, Keisuke

    2015-11-01

    The 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident contaminated large areas of eastern and northeastern Japan, releasing vast amounts of radiation. Here we investigated radioactive contamination of the nest materials of the Eurasian Tree Sparrow Passer montanus from the breeding season of 2011 directly after the accident to the next breeding season of 2012 at two sites. In Tokyo (222 km southwest of the plant), ambient dose rates in the nestboxes were lower than those in Ibaraki (175 km southwest of the plant), where the levels of 2011 were higher than those of 2012. Further, the amount of radioactive Cs in each nest increased with the increase in nest weight, with a higher increment at Ibaraki than at Tokyo. These data suggested higher nest contamination levels in the breeding season directly after a nuclear accident than in later seasons, and an increment of nest contamination levels via nest materials of birds. PMID:26162335

  4. Arenal-type pyroclastic flows: A probabilistic event tree risk analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meloy, Anthony F.

    2006-09-01

    A quantitative hazard-specific scenario-modelling risk analysis is performed at Arenal volcano, Costa Rica for the newly recognised Arenal-type pyroclastic flow (ATPF) phenomenon using an event tree framework. These flows are generated by the sudden depressurisation and fragmentation of an active basaltic andesite lava pool as a result of a partial collapse of the crater wall. The deposits of this type of flow include angular blocks and juvenile clasts, which are rarely found in other types of pyroclastic flow. An event tree analysis (ETA) is a useful tool and framework in which to analyse and graphically present the probabilities of the occurrence of many possible events in a complex system. Four event trees are created in the analysis, three of which are extended to investigate the varying individual risk faced by three generic representatives of the surrounding community: a resident, a worker, and a tourist. The raw numerical risk estimates determined by the ETA are converted into a set of linguistic expressions (i.e. VERY HIGH, HIGH, MODERATE etc.) using an established risk classification scale. Three individually tailored semi-quantitative risk maps are then created from a set of risk conversion tables to show how the risk varies for each individual in different areas around the volcano. In some cases, by relocating from the north to the south, the level of risk can be reduced by up to three classes. While the individual risk maps may be broadly applicable, and therefore of interest to the general community, the risk maps and associated probability values generated in the ETA are intended to be used by trained professionals and government agencies to evaluate the risk and effectively manage the long-term development of infrastructure and habitation. With the addition of fresh monitoring data, the combination of both long- and short-term event trees would provide a comprehensive and consistent method of risk analysis (both during and pre-crisis), and as such

  5. Radiocesium concentrations in the bark, sapwood and heartwood of three tree species collected at Fukushima forests half a year after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Kuroda, Katsushi; Kagawa, Akira; Tonosaki, Mario

    2013-08-01

    Radiocesium ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) distribution in tree stems of Japanese cedar (aged 40-56 y), red pine (42 y), and oak (42 y) grown in Fukushima Prefecture were investigated approximately half a year after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident. Japanese cedar, red pine, and oak were selected from five sites, one site, and one site, respectively. Three trees at each site were felled, and bark, sapwood (the outer layer of wood in the stem), and heartwood (the inner layer of wood in the stem) separately collected to study radiocesium concentrations measured by gamma-ray spectrometry. The radiocesium deposition densities at the five sites were within the range of 16-1020 kBq m(-2). The radiocesium was distributed in bark, sapwood, and heartwood in three tree species, indicating that very rapid translocation of radiocesium into the wood. The concentration of radiocesium in oak (deciduous angiosperm) bark was higher than that in the bark of Japanese cedar and red pine (evergreen gymnosperms). Both sapwood and heartwood contained radiocesium, and the values were much lower than that in the bark samples. The results suggest that radiocesium contamination half a year after the accident was mainly attributable to the direct radioactive deposition. The radiocesium concentrations in the Japanese cedar samples taken from five sites rose with the density of radiocesium accumulation on the ground surface. To predict the future dynamics of radiocesium in tree stems, the present results taken half a year after the accident are important, and continuous study of radiocesium in tree stems is necessary.

  6. Fukushima Nuclear Accident Report Calls for More Focus on Threats From Extreme Events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    2014-08-01

    Nuclear plant licensees and their regulators "must actively seek out and act on new information about hazards that have the potential to affect the safety of nuclear plants." That is the overarching lesson from the 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan, according to a 24 July report issued by a committee of the U.S. National Research Council.

  7. Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Khaja, Nawal

    2007-01-01

    This is a thematic lesson plan for young learners about palm trees and the importance of taking care of them. The two part lesson teaches listening, reading and speaking skills. The lesson includes parts of a tree; the modal auxiliary, can; dialogues and a role play activity.

  8. Patient views of adverse events: comparisons of self-reported healthcare staff attitudes with disclosure of accident information.

    PubMed

    Itoh, Kenji; Andersen, Henning Boje; Madsen, Marlene Dyrløv; Østergaard, Doris; Ikeno, Masaaki

    2006-07-01

    In the present paper, we report results of surveys in 2003 in Japan and Denmark about patients' views about adverse events, focusing on the actions of healthcare staff involved in a medical accident. Results show that patients were more likely to indicate negative expectations to a doctor's reactions after a medical accident when asked in general terms than when asked in relation to concrete case stories. When asked in general terms, 66% (47%) of Japanese (Danish) respondents expected that doctors sometimes hold back on providing information to patients about a medical accident, while 37% (7%) did so when asked about a concrete, mild-outcome case. We examine some possible reasons for the relatively high level of distrust of Japanese patients, and we discuss whether the seemingly lower level of disclosure in Japan than in Denmark and the negative stories in the Japanese press may have an impact. We also suggest some implications for introducing a patient-centred or customer-centred approach to risk management in healthcare and other domains. PMID:16759631

  9. Snow event classification with a 2D video disdrometer - A decision tree approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bernauer, F.; Hürkamp, K.; Rühm, W.; Tschiersch, J.

    2016-05-01

    Snowfall classification according to crystal type or degree of riming of the snowflakes is import for many atmospheric processes, e.g. wet deposition of aerosol particles. 2D video disdrometers (2DVD) have recently proved their capability to measure microphysical parameters of snowfall. The present work has the aim of classifying snowfall according to microphysical properties of single hydrometeors (e.g. shape and fall velocity) measured by means of a 2DVD. The constraints for the shape and velocity parameters which are used in a decision tree for classification of the 2DVD measurements, are derived from detailed on-site observations, combining automatic 2DVD classification with visual inspection. The developed decision tree algorithm subdivides the detected events into three classes of dominating crystal type (single crystals, complex crystals and pellets) and three classes of dominating degree of riming (weak, moderate and strong). The classification results for the crystal type were validated with an independent data set proving the unambiguousness of the classification. In addition, for three long-term events, good agreement of the classification results with independently measured maximum dimension of snowflakes, snowflake bulk density and surrounding temperature was found. The developed classification algorithm is applicable for wind speeds below 5.0 m s -1 and has the advantage of being easily implemented by other users.

  10. The transfer of radiocesium from the bark to the stemflow of chestnut trees (Castanea crenata) contaminated by radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, Yoshito; Abe, Hironobu; Mitachi, Katsuaki; Watanabe, Takayoshi; Ishii, Yasuo; Niizato, Tadafumi

    2016-09-01

    We report on the behavior of radiocesium in tree bark and its transfer into the stemflows of chestnut trees in a forest in the Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. In stems that were present at the time of the accident, the radiocesium concentration of the bark was found to be approximately 10 times that of the wood. The average (137)Cs concentration of the dissolved fraction (<0.45 μm) in the stemflow was measured to be around 10 Bq/L. The (137)Cs concentration ratio [present at the time of the accident (Bq/kg) in the bark/the dissolved fraction in the stemflow (Bq/L)] was approximately 10(3). A strong positive correlation was observed between the radiocesium concentration and the electrical conductivity of the dissolved fraction of the stemflow; this result suggests that radiocesium and electrolytes have the same elution mechanism from the tree. The size fractionation analysis of the <0.45 μm fraction through ultrafiltration revealed that the radiocesium was present as an almost dissolved species. Some of the particles in the particulate fraction (>0.45 μm) of the stemflow were strongly adsorbed radiocesium.

  11. The transfer of radiocesium from the bark to the stemflow of chestnut trees (Castanea crenata) contaminated by radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Sasaki, Yoshito; Abe, Hironobu; Mitachi, Katsuaki; Watanabe, Takayoshi; Ishii, Yasuo; Niizato, Tadafumi

    2016-09-01

    We report on the behavior of radiocesium in tree bark and its transfer into the stemflows of chestnut trees in a forest in the Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. In stems that were present at the time of the accident, the radiocesium concentration of the bark was found to be approximately 10 times that of the wood. The average (137)Cs concentration of the dissolved fraction (<0.45 μm) in the stemflow was measured to be around 10 Bq/L. The (137)Cs concentration ratio [present at the time of the accident (Bq/kg) in the bark/the dissolved fraction in the stemflow (Bq/L)] was approximately 10(3). A strong positive correlation was observed between the radiocesium concentration and the electrical conductivity of the dissolved fraction of the stemflow; this result suggests that radiocesium and electrolytes have the same elution mechanism from the tree. The size fractionation analysis of the <0.45 μm fraction through ultrafiltration revealed that the radiocesium was present as an almost dissolved species. Some of the particles in the particulate fraction (>0.45 μm) of the stemflow were strongly adsorbed radiocesium. PMID:26718985

  12. Effective half-lives of ¹³⁷Cs from persimmon tree tissue parts in Japan after Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Tagami, Keiko; Uchida, Shigeo

    2015-03-01

    To estimate the radiocesium decreasing rates from persimmon trees during a period of about 3 y following the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), we conducted measurements of tree tissue parts collected in 2011-2013. The sampling was carried out in Chiba, 220 km south of FDNPP; radioactive fallouts discharged from FDNPP had mainly been observed in March-April 2011 on the sampling site. We measured (137)Cs concentrations in the tree tissue parts, i.e., fruits (flesh, skin and seeds), leaves and newly emerged branches, and then the effective half-lives (T(eff)) of (137)Cs were calculated. Leaf samples were classified into two types by sampling months according to the growing stages, that is, immature (April-May) and mature (June-November) leaves. All these parts showed exponential declines in (137)Cs concentration with good adjusted contribution ratios of higher than ca. 0.7. The calculated T(eff) values from all tissue parts were similar with the average of 229 d (range: 216-243 d). From these results, we concluded that each tree tissue was representative for the calculation of Teff. For comparison to these observation results, open source food monitoring data from 2011 to 2013 including (137)Cs data for persimmon fruits collected in Fukushima Prefecture were used to calculate T(eff) for persimmon trees. Values of Teff were obtained for persimmon fruits grown in each local government area in Fukushima Prefecture and they ranged from 303 to 475 d. PMID:25500061

  13. Effective half-lives of ¹³⁷Cs from persimmon tree tissue parts in Japan after Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Tagami, Keiko; Uchida, Shigeo

    2015-03-01

    To estimate the radiocesium decreasing rates from persimmon trees during a period of about 3 y following the accident at Tokyo Electric Power Company's Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP), we conducted measurements of tree tissue parts collected in 2011-2013. The sampling was carried out in Chiba, 220 km south of FDNPP; radioactive fallouts discharged from FDNPP had mainly been observed in March-April 2011 on the sampling site. We measured (137)Cs concentrations in the tree tissue parts, i.e., fruits (flesh, skin and seeds), leaves and newly emerged branches, and then the effective half-lives (T(eff)) of (137)Cs were calculated. Leaf samples were classified into two types by sampling months according to the growing stages, that is, immature (April-May) and mature (June-November) leaves. All these parts showed exponential declines in (137)Cs concentration with good adjusted contribution ratios of higher than ca. 0.7. The calculated T(eff) values from all tissue parts were similar with the average of 229 d (range: 216-243 d). From these results, we concluded that each tree tissue was representative for the calculation of Teff. For comparison to these observation results, open source food monitoring data from 2011 to 2013 including (137)Cs data for persimmon fruits collected in Fukushima Prefecture were used to calculate T(eff) for persimmon trees. Values of Teff were obtained for persimmon fruits grown in each local government area in Fukushima Prefecture and they ranged from 303 to 475 d.

  14. Bayesian event tree for long-term volcanic hazard assessment: Application to Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, Tenerife, Canary Islands

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sobradelo, R.; Martí, J.

    2010-05-01

    In modern volcanology one of the most important goals is to perform hazard and risk assessment of volcanoes near urbanized areas. Previous work has been done to assess volcanic hazard in the form of event tree structures containing possible eruptive scenarios. Probability methods have been applied to these structures to estimate the long term probability for each scenario. However, most of these event tree models show restrictions in the eruptive scenarios they consider and/or on the possibility of having volcanic unrest triggered by other forces than magmatic. In this paper, we present a Bayesian event tree structure which accounts for external triggers (geothermal, seismic) as a source of volcanic unrest and looks at the hazard from different types of magma composition and different vent locations (as opposite to a central vent only). We apply the model to the particular case of Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8-3 km3 of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka, situated on a densely populated island, one of the biggest tourist destinations of Europe, and for which limited geological and no historical data exist. Hence, the importance of volcanic hazard assessment for risk-based decision-making in land use planning and emergency management. A previous attempt to estimate the volcanic hazard for Teide-Pico Viejo has been done using an event tree structure based on Elicitation of Expert Judgment. The new method overcomes some limitations of the previous method, including human decision bias, epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, restrictions on the segmentation complexity of the event tree structure, and automatically updating. The main steps are the following: (1) Design an extensive tree-shaped Bayesian network with possible eruptive scenarios following the case of Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex. (2) Build a Bayesian model to estimate the long term volcanic hazard for each

  15. A new Bayesian Event Tree tool to track and quantify volcanic unrest and its application to Kawah Ijen volcano

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tonini, Roberto; Sandri, Laura; Rouwet, Dmitri; Caudron, Corentin; Marzocchi, Warner; Suparjan

    2016-07-01

    Although most of volcanic hazard studies focus on magmatic eruptions, volcanic hazardous events can also occur when no migration of magma can be recognized. Examples are tectonic and hydrothermal unrest that may lead to phreatic eruptions. Recent events (e.g., Ontake eruption on September 2014) have demonstrated that phreatic eruptions are still hard to forecast, despite being potentially very hazardous. For these reasons, it is of paramount importance to identify indicators that define the condition of nonmagmatic unrest, in particular for hydrothermal systems. Often, this type of unrest is driven by movement of fluids, requiring alternative monitoring setups, beyond the classical seismic-geodetic-geochemical architectures. Here we present a new version of the probabilistic BET (Bayesian Event Tree) model, specifically developed to include the forecasting of nonmagmatic unrest and related hazards. The structure of the new event tree differs from the previous schemes by adding a specific branch to detail nonmagmatic unrest outcomes. A further goal of this work consists in providing a user-friendly, open-access, and straightforward tool to handle the probabilistic forecast and visualize the results as possible support during a volcanic crisis. The new event tree and tool are here applied to Kawah Ijen stratovolcano, Indonesia, as exemplificative application. In particular, the tool is set on the basis of monitoring data for the learning period 2000-2010, and is then blindly applied to the test period 2010-2012, during which significant unrest phases occurred.

  16. Systems analysis programs for hands-on integrated reliability evaluations (SAPHIRE) Version 5.0. Fault tree, event tree, and piping & instrumentation diagram (FEP) editors reference manual: Volume 7

    SciTech Connect

    McKay, M.K.; Skinner, N.L.; Wood, S.T.

    1994-07-01

    The Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations (SAPHIRE) refers to a set of several microcomputer programs that were developed to create and analyze probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs), primarily for nuclear power plants. The Fault Tree, Event Tree, and Piping and Instrumentation Diagram (FEP) editors allow the user to graphically build and edit fault trees, and event trees, and piping and instrumentation diagrams (P and IDs). The software is designed to enable the independent use of the graphical-based editors found in the Integrated Reliability and Risk Assessment System (IRRAS). FEP is comprised of three separate editors (Fault Tree, Event Tree, and Piping and Instrumentation Diagram) and a utility module. This reference manual provides a screen-by-screen guide of the entire FEP System.

  17. Central collecting and evaluating of major accidents and near-miss-events in the Federal Republic of Germany--results, experiences, perspectives.

    PubMed

    Uth, Hans-Joachim; Wiese, Norbert

    2004-07-26

    Lessons learnt from accidents are essential sources for updating state of the art requirements in process safety. To improve this input by a systematic way in the FRG, a central body for collecting and evaluating major accident (ZEMA) was established in 1993. ZEMA is part of the Federal Environmental Agency. All events which are to be notified due to the German Regulation on Major Accidents (Störfall-Verordnung) are centrally collected, analysed (deducing lessons learnt) and documented by ZEMA. The bureau is also responsible for the dissemination of the lessons learnt to all stake holders. This work is done in co-operation with the German Major-Accident Hazard Commission (Störfallkommission) and other international bodies like European MAHB. At the time being, over 375 events from 1980 to 2002 are registered in Germany. For each event, a separate data sheet is published in annual reports, first started in 1993. All information is also available at. A summary evaluation on the events from 1993 to 1999 is presented and some basic lessons learnt are shown. The results from root cause analysis underline the importance of maintenance, detailed knowledge of chemical properties, human factor issues and the role of safety organisation especially connected with subcontractors. The German notification system is described in detail and some experience with the system is reported. Keeping in mind that collecting reports from notified major accidents is only a small amount compared with all the events which might be interesting to learn from, the German Major-Accident Hazard Commission has established a separate body, the subcommittee "Incident Evaluation", which is in charge with collecting and evaluating of minor and near-miss events. Since 1994, a concept for the registration and evaluation of those non-notifiable events was developed. From 2000 on, the concept has been put into operation. Its main elements are; 1. reporting of the incident by the plant operator to an

  18. Supplemental Analysis to Support Postulated Events in Process Hazards Analysis for the HEAF

    SciTech Connect

    Lambert, H; Johnson, G

    2001-07-20

    The purpose of this report is to conduct a limit scope risk assessment by generating event trees for the accident scenarios described in table 4-2 of the HEAF SAR, ref 1. Table 4-2 lists the postulated event/scenario descriptions for non-industrial hazards for HEAF. The event tree analysis decomposes accident scenarios into basic causes that appear as branches on the event tree. Bold downward branches indicate paths leading to the accident. The basic causes include conditions, failure of administrative controls (procedural or human error events) or failure of engineered controls (hardware, software or equipment failure) that singly or in combination can cause an accident to occur. Event tree analysis is useful since it can display the minimum number of events to cause an accident. Event trees can address statistical dependency of events such as a sequence of human error events conducted by the same operator. In this case, dependent probabilities are used. Probabilities/frequencies are assigned to each branch. Another example of dependency would be when the same software is used to conduct separate actions such as activating a hard and soft crow bar for grounding detonator circuits. Generally, the first event considered in the event tree describes the annual frequency at which a specific operation is conducted and probabilities are assigned to the remaining branches. An exception may be when the first event represents a condition, then a probability is used to indicate the percentage of time the condition exists. The annual probability (frequency) of the end state leading to the accident scenario in the event tree is obtained by multiplying the branch probabilities together.

  19. Inferring the chemical form of 137Cs deposited by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by measuring (137)Cs incorporated into needle leaves and male cones of Japanese cedar trees.

    PubMed

    Kanasashi, Tsutomu; Takenaka, Chisato; Sugiura, Yuki

    2016-05-15

    We hypothesized that the water-soluble (ionic) and water-insoluble (stable) radiocesium from the initial fallout of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident was distributed in various proportions in the surrounding areas and that this distribution was reflected in the trees that suffered deposition from the initial fallout. This study attempted to evaluate local variations in the chemical form of (137)Cs derived from the initial fallout of the FDNPP accident and whether its chemical form affected the radiocesium concentration in the tissues currently growing in trees, even after the initial fallout ceased. For these estimations, the ratio between the (137)Cs concentration in Cryptomeria japonica needle leaves in the tree crown, which existed before the FDNPP accident and subsequently directly exposed to the initial fallout ((137)Cs pre-accident N), and the amount of (137)Cs in the initial fallout itself ((137)Cs fallout) was determined ((137)Cs pre-accident N/(137)Cs fallout) at 66 sites. In addition, the (137)Cs ratios between the male cones produced in 2012 ((137)Cs male cone) and needle leaves that had elongated in the spring of 2011 ((137)Cs 2011N) was determined at 82 sites ((137)Cs male cone/(137) Cs 2011N). Most of the sites with lower (137)Cs pre-accident N /(137)Cs fallout ratios were distributed in eastern Fukushima, relatively close to the Pacific Ocean coastline. Lower (137)Cs pre-accident N/(137)Cs fallout and higher (137)Cs malecone/(137)Cs 2011N were found to be associated with higher proportions of (137)Cs in ionic forms. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis, and likely reflect regional variations in the chemical form of the deposited radiocesium.

  20. Inferring the chemical form of 137Cs deposited by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by measuring (137)Cs incorporated into needle leaves and male cones of Japanese cedar trees.

    PubMed

    Kanasashi, Tsutomu; Takenaka, Chisato; Sugiura, Yuki

    2016-05-15

    We hypothesized that the water-soluble (ionic) and water-insoluble (stable) radiocesium from the initial fallout of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (FDNPP) accident was distributed in various proportions in the surrounding areas and that this distribution was reflected in the trees that suffered deposition from the initial fallout. This study attempted to evaluate local variations in the chemical form of (137)Cs derived from the initial fallout of the FDNPP accident and whether its chemical form affected the radiocesium concentration in the tissues currently growing in trees, even after the initial fallout ceased. For these estimations, the ratio between the (137)Cs concentration in Cryptomeria japonica needle leaves in the tree crown, which existed before the FDNPP accident and subsequently directly exposed to the initial fallout ((137)Cs pre-accident N), and the amount of (137)Cs in the initial fallout itself ((137)Cs fallout) was determined ((137)Cs pre-accident N/(137)Cs fallout) at 66 sites. In addition, the (137)Cs ratios between the male cones produced in 2012 ((137)Cs male cone) and needle leaves that had elongated in the spring of 2011 ((137)Cs 2011N) was determined at 82 sites ((137)Cs male cone/(137) Cs 2011N). Most of the sites with lower (137)Cs pre-accident N /(137)Cs fallout ratios were distributed in eastern Fukushima, relatively close to the Pacific Ocean coastline. Lower (137)Cs pre-accident N/(137)Cs fallout and higher (137)Cs malecone/(137)Cs 2011N were found to be associated with higher proportions of (137)Cs in ionic forms. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis, and likely reflect regional variations in the chemical form of the deposited radiocesium. PMID:26990074

  1. A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-02-28

    Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior.

  2. A survival tree method for the analysis of discrete event times in clinical and epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Matthias; Küchenhoff, Helmut; Hoerauf, Achim; Tutz, Gerhard

    2016-02-28

    Survival trees are a popular alternative to parametric survival modeling when there are interactions between the predictor variables or when the aim is to stratify patients into prognostic subgroups. A limitation of classical survival tree methodology is that most algorithms for tree construction are designed for continuous outcome variables. Hence, classical methods might not be appropriate if failure time data are measured on a discrete time scale (as is often the case in longitudinal studies where data are collected, e.g., quarterly or yearly). To address this issue, we develop a method for discrete survival tree construction. The proposed technique is based on the result that the likelihood of a discrete survival model is equivalent to the likelihood of a regression model for binary outcome data. Hence, we modify tree construction methods for binary outcomes such that they result in optimized partitions for the estimation of discrete hazard functions. By applying the proposed method to data from a randomized trial in patients with filarial lymphedema, we demonstrate how discrete survival trees can be used to identify clinically relevant patient groups with similar survival behavior. PMID:26358826

  3. Seasonality and Disturbance Events in the Carbon Isotope Record of Pinus elliottii Tree Rings from Big Pine Key, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebenack, C.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

    2012-12-01

    The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation-driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations

  4. Yukon Tree Rings and Climate Change: Effect of increased freeze-thaw events on white spruce and lodgepole pine growth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nelson, E. A.; Thomas, S. C.

    2009-05-01

    Northern environments are experiencing dramatic changes in local climate, including prolonged spring and fall freeze-thaw cycles. Our research examines whether increased frequency of freeze-thaw events is linked to growth reductions in lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) and white spruce (Picea glauca) in the Yukon Territory, Canada. Tree core samples were collected from 11 sites across the Yukon, covering a range of ecoregions, climate zones, and fire history, sampling all major forest communities accessible by road and located near the network of long-term weather stations. Over 50 tree cores from each site were sampled, analysed for ring- width, cross-dated and averaged to generate yearly ring growth at each site for each species. Ring growth was then compared against yearly freeze-thaw events at each site, defined as total days with daily temperature ranges which crossed the freezing threshold. Preliminary results indicate a negative relationship between ring growth and number of freeze-thaw events (p<0.05), suggesting that northern forests will experience growth declines in response to prolonged spring and fall freeze-thaw conditions.

  5. Unified framework for triaxial accelerometer-based fall event detection and classification using cumulants and hierarchical decision tree classifier

    PubMed Central

    Kambhampati, Satya Samyukta; Singh, Vishal; Ramkumar, Barathram

    2015-01-01

    In this Letter, the authors present a unified framework for fall event detection and classification using the cumulants extracted from the acceleration (ACC) signals acquired using a single waist-mounted triaxial accelerometer. The main objective of this Letter is to find suitable representative cumulants and classifiers in effectively detecting and classifying different types of fall and non-fall events. It was discovered that the first level of the proposed hierarchical decision tree algorithm implements fall detection using fifth-order cumulants and support vector machine (SVM) classifier. In the second level, the fall event classification algorithm uses the fifth-order cumulants and SVM. Finally, human activity classification is performed using the second-order cumulants and SVM. The detection and classification results are compared with those of the decision tree, naive Bayes, multilayer perceptron and SVM classifiers with different types of time-domain features including the second-, third-, fourth- and fifth-order cumulants and the signal magnitude vector and signal magnitude area. The experimental results demonstrate that the second- and fifth-order cumulant features and SVM classifier can achieve optimal detection and classification rates of above 95%, as well as the lowest false alarm rate of 1.03%. PMID:26609414

  6. Single event and TREE latchup mitigation for a star tracker sensor: An innovative approach to system level latchup mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Kimbrough, J.R.; Colella, N.J.; Davis, R.W.; Bruener, D.B.; Coakley, P.G.; Lutjens, S.W.; Mallon, C.E.

    1994-08-01

    Electronic packages designed for spacecraft should be fault-tolerant and operate without ground control intervention through extremes in the space radiation environment. If designed for military use, the electronics must survive and function in a nuclear radiation environment. This paper presents an innovative ``blink`` approach rather than the typical ``operate through`` approach to achieve system level latchup mitigation on a prototype star tracker camera. Included are circuit designs, flash x-ray test data, and heavy ion data demonstrating latchup mitigation protecting micro-electronics from current latchup and burnout due to Single Event Latchup (SEL) and Transient Radiation Effects on Electronics (TREE).

  7. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  8. Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis - The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events.

    PubMed

    Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A; Longares, Luis A; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T

    2016-01-01

    Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

  9. Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis – The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events

    PubMed Central

    Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A.; Longares, Luis A.; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B. K.; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T.

    2016-01-01

    Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

  10. Missing Rings in Pinus halepensis - The Missing Link to Relate the Tree-Ring Record to Extreme Climatic Events.

    PubMed

    Novak, Klemen; de Luis, Martin; Saz, Miguel A; Longares, Luis A; Serrano-Notivoli, Roberto; Raventós, Josep; Čufar, Katarina; Gričar, Jožica; Di Filippo, Alfredo; Piovesan, Gianluca; Rathgeber, Cyrille B K; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Smith, Kevin T

    2016-01-01

    Climate predictions for the Mediterranean Basin include increased temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased frequency of extreme climatic events (ECE). These conditions are associated with decreased tree growth and increased vulnerability to pests and diseases. The anatomy of tree rings responds to these environmental conditions. Quantitatively, the width of a tree ring is largely determined by the rate and duration of cell division by the vascular cambium. In the Mediterranean climate, this division may occur throughout almost the entire year. Alternatively, cell division may cease during relatively cool and dry winters, only to resume in the same calendar year with milder temperatures and increased availability of water. Under particularly adverse conditions, no xylem may be produced in parts of the stem, resulting in a missing ring (MR). A dendrochronological network of Pinus halepensis was used to determine the relationship of MR to ECE. The network consisted of 113 sites, 1,509 trees, 2,593 cores, and 225,428 tree rings throughout the distribution range of the species. A total of 4,150 MR were identified. Binomial logistic regression analysis determined that MR frequency increased with increased cambial age. Spatial analysis indicated that the geographic areas of south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria contained the greatest frequency of MR. Dendroclimatic regression analysis indicated a non-linear relationship of MR to total monthly precipitation and mean temperature. MR are strongly associated with the combination of monthly mean temperature from previous October till current February and total precipitation from previous September till current May. They are likely to occur with total precipitation lower than 50 mm and temperatures higher than 5°C. This conclusion is global and can be applied to every site across the distribution area. Rather than simply being a complication for dendrochronology, MR formation is a fundamental response of trees

  11. World commercial aircraft accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1993-01-01

    This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. Included are: accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft, world commercial turboprop aircraft, world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines and world commercial pistonprop aircraft with two or three engines from 1946 to 1992. Each accident is presented with information in the following categories: date of the accident, airline and its flight numbers, type of flight, type of aircraft, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident, and finally references used. The sixth chapter presents a summary of the world commercial aircraft accidents by major aircraft class (e.g. jet, turboprop, and pistonprop) and by flight phase. The seventh chapter presents several special studies including a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities, a list of collision accidents involving commercial aircrafts, and a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, and hijackings.

  12. Developing an Event-Tree Probabilistic Tsunami Inundation Model for NE Atlantic Coasts: Application to a Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omira, R.; Matias, L.; Baptista, M. A.

    2016-08-01

    This study constitutes a preliminary assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region. We developed an event-tree approach to calculate the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height for a given exposure time. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account local, regional, and far-field sources. The approach used here consists of an event-tree method that gathers probability models for seismic sources, tsunami numerical modeling, and statistical methods. It also includes a treatment of aleatoric uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage. Epistemic uncertainties are not addressed in this study. The methodology is applied to the coastal test-site of Sines located in the NE Atlantic coast of Portugal. We derive probabilistic high-resolution maximum wave amplitudes and flood distributions for the study test-site considering 100- and 500-year exposure times. We find that the probability that maximum wave amplitude exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 60 % for an exposure time of 100 years and is up to 97 % for an exposure time of 500 years. The probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth >0 m) varies between 10 % and 57 %, and from 20 % up to 95 % for 100- and 500-year exposure times, respectively. No validation has been performed here with historical tsunamis. This paper illustrates a methodology through a case study, which is not an operational assessment.

  13. The role of vegetation covers on soil wetting processes at rainfall event scale in scattered tree woodland of Mediterranean climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lozano-Parra, Javier; Schnabel, Susanne; Ceballos-Barbancho, Antonio

    2015-10-01

    Soil water is recognized as the key factor that controls the organization and functioning of dryland ecosystems. However, in spite of its great importance in ecohydrological processes as well as in modelling applications, most of the studies focus on daily or longer timescales, while its dynamics at shorter timescales are very little known. The main objective of this work was to determine the role of vegetation covers (grassland and tree canopy) in the soil hydrological response using measurements with high temporal resolution in evergreen oak woodland with Mediterranean climate. For this, soil water content was measured with capacitive sensors installed in the soil profile at different depths registering continuously with a high time resolution. Three study areas were monitored for two and half hydrological years. Results obtained revealed that rainwater amounts reaching the soil may temporarily be modified by covers according to precipitation properties and antecedent conditions (from dry to wet) before the rain episode. Rainfall amounts triggering a positive soil hydrological response decreased as initial states became drier, being more accentuated below tree canopies. The frequency of re-wetting cycles and the antecedent states seem to be as important or even more than either the duration or the precipitation amount. Therefore, the role of vegetation was more decisive under drier environmental conditions, where events lower than 6 mm and 2 mm never caused soil hydrological response either below tree canopy or grassland, respectively. This is important because initial conditions were independent of seasonality and because more than half of all rainfall events registered amounts smaller than 5 mm. If changes on precipitation patterns turn out in drier conditions, the predominance of such situations could have important ecohydrological consequences in semiarid ecosystems.

  14. Hazard Assessment for POPOCATÉPETL Volcano Using Hasset: a Probability Event Tree Tool to Evaluate Future Eruptive Scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrés, D.; Reyes Pimentel, T. A.; Espinasa-Pereña, R.; Nieto, A.; Sobradelo, R.; Flores, X.; González Huesca, A. E.; Ramirez, A.

    2013-05-01

    Popocatépetl volcano is one of the most active in Latin America. During its last cycle of activity, beginning at the end of 1994, more than 40 episodes of dome construction and destruction have occurred inside the summit crater. Most of these episodes finished with eruptions of VEI 1-2. Eruptions of higher intensity were also registered in 1997, 2001 and 2009, of VEI≥3, which produced eruptive columns up to 8 km high and abundant and frequent ash falls on the villages at the eastern sector of the volcano. The January 22nd 2001 eruption also produced pyroclastic flows that followed several streams on the volcanic cone, reaching 4 to 6 km, and transforming to mudflows with ranges up to 15 km. The capital, Mexico City, is within the radius of 80 km from Popocatépetl volcano and can be affected by ash fall during the first months of the rainy season (May to July). Other important cities, such as Puebla and Atlixco, are located 15 to 30 km from the crater. Several villages of the states of México, Puebla and Morelos, which have a total population of 40,000 people, are inside the radius of 12 to 15 km, where the impacts of any of the products of an eruption, including pyroclastic flows, are possible. This high exposure of people and infrastructure around Popocatépetl volcano emphasizes the need of tools for early warning and the development of preventive actions to protect the population from volcanic phenomena. The diagnosis of the volcanic activity, based on the information provided by the monitoring systems, and the prognosis of the evolution of the volcano in the short-term is made by the Scientific Advisory Committee, formed by volcanologists of the National Autonomous University of Mexico, and by CENAPRED staff. From this prognosis, the alert level for the people is determined and it is spread by the code of the traffic light of volcanic alert. A volcanic event tree was constructed with the advisory of the scientific committee in the recent seismic

  15. Developing an event-tree probabilistic tsunami inundation model for NE Atlantic coasts: Application to case studies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omira, Rachid; Baptista, Maria Ana; Matias, Luis

    2015-04-01

    This study constitutes the first assessment of probabilistic tsunami inundation in the NE Atlantic region, using an event-tree approach. It aims to develop a probabilistic tsunami inundation approach for the NE Atlantic coast with an application to two test sites of ASTARTE project, Tangier-Morocco and Sines-Portugal. Only tsunamis of tectonic origin are considered here, taking into account near-, regional- and far-filed sources. The multidisciplinary approach, proposed here, consists of an event-tree method that gathers seismic hazard assessment, tsunami numerical modelling, and statistical methods. It presents also a treatment of uncertainties related to source location and tidal stage in order to derive the likelihood of tsunami flood occurrence and exceedance of a specific near-shore wave height during a given return period. We derive high-resolution probabilistic maximum wave heights and flood distributions for both test-sites Tangier and Sines considering 100-, 500-, and 1000-year return periods. We find that the probability that a maximum wave height exceeds 1 m somewhere along the Sines coasts reaches about 55% for 100-year return period, and is up to 100% for 1000-year return period. Along Tangier coast, the probability of inundation occurrence (flow depth > 0m) is up to 45% for 100-year return period and reaches 96% in some near-shore costal location for 500-year return period. Acknowledgements: This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3).

  16. Tree mortality from a short-duration freezing event and global-change-type drought in a Southwestern piñon-juniper woodland, USA

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    This study documents tree mortality in Big Bend National Park in Texas in response to the most acute one-year drought on record, which occurred following a five-day winter freeze. I estimated changes in forest stand structure and species composition due to freezing and drought in the Chisos Mountains of Big Bend National Park using permanent monitoring plot data. The drought killed over half (63%) of the sampled trees over the entire elevation gradient. Significant mortality occurred in trees up to 20 cm diameter (P < 0.05). Pinus cembroides Zucc. experienced the highest seedling and tree mortality (P < 0.0001) (55% of piñon pines died), and over five times as many standing dead pines were observed in 2012 than in 2009. Juniperus deppeana vonSteudal and Quercus emoryi Leibmann also experienced significant declines in tree density (P < 0.02) (30.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Subsequent droughts under climate change will likely cause even greater damage to trees that survived this record drought, especially if such events follow freezes. The results from this study highlight the vulnerability of trees in the Southwest to climatic change and that future shifts in forest structure can have large-scale community consequences. PMID:24949231

  17. Tree mortality from a short-duration freezing event and global-change-type drought in a Southwestern piñon-juniper woodland, USA.

    PubMed

    Poulos, Helen M

    2014-01-01

    This study documents tree mortality in Big Bend National Park in Texas in response to the most acute one-year drought on record, which occurred following a five-day winter freeze. I estimated changes in forest stand structure and species composition due to freezing and drought in the Chisos Mountains of Big Bend National Park using permanent monitoring plot data. The drought killed over half (63%) of the sampled trees over the entire elevation gradient. Significant mortality occurred in trees up to 20 cm diameter (P < 0.05). Pinus cembroides Zucc. experienced the highest seedling and tree mortality (P < 0.0001) (55% of piñon pines died), and over five times as many standing dead pines were observed in 2012 than in 2009. Juniperus deppeana vonSteudal and Quercus emoryi Leibmann also experienced significant declines in tree density (P < 0.02) (30.9% and 20.7%, respectively). Subsequent droughts under climate change will likely cause even greater damage to trees that survived this record drought, especially if such events follow freezes. The results from this study highlight the vulnerability of trees in the Southwest to climatic change and that future shifts in forest structure can have large-scale community consequences.

  18. Trans-oceanic transport of 137Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident and impact of hypothetical Fukushima-like events of future nuclear plants in Southern China.

    PubMed

    Wai, Ka-Ming; Yu, Peter K N

    2015-03-01

    A Lagrangian model was adopted to assess the potential impact of (137)Cs released from hypothetical Fukushima-like accidents occurring on three potential nuclear power plant sites in Southern China in the near future (planned within 10 years) in four different seasons. The maximum surface (0-500 m) (137)Cs air concentrations would be reached 10 Bq m(-3) near the source, comparable to the Fukushima case. In January, Southeast Asian countries would be mostly affected by the radioactive plume due to the effects of winter monsoon. In April, the impact would be mainly on Southern and Northern China. Debris of radioactive plume (~1 mBq m(-3)) would carry out long-range transport to North America. The area of influence would be the smallest in July due to the frequent and intense wet removal events by trough of low pressure and tropical cyclone. The maximum worst-case areas of influence were 2382000, 2327000, 517000 and 1395000 km(2) in January, April, July and October, respectively. Prior to the above calculations, the model was employed to simulate the trans-oceanic transport of (137)Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident. Observed and modeled (137)Cs concentrations were comparable. Sensitivity runs were performed to optimize the wet scavenging parameterization. The adoption of higher-resolution (1° × 1°) meteorological fields improved the prediction. The computed large-scale plume transport pattern over the Pacific Ocean was compared with that reported in the literature. PMID:25474170

  19. Trans-oceanic transport of 137Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident and impact of hypothetical Fukushima-like events of future nuclear plants in Southern China.

    PubMed

    Wai, Ka-Ming; Yu, Peter K N

    2015-03-01

    A Lagrangian model was adopted to assess the potential impact of (137)Cs released from hypothetical Fukushima-like accidents occurring on three potential nuclear power plant sites in Southern China in the near future (planned within 10 years) in four different seasons. The maximum surface (0-500 m) (137)Cs air concentrations would be reached 10 Bq m(-3) near the source, comparable to the Fukushima case. In January, Southeast Asian countries would be mostly affected by the radioactive plume due to the effects of winter monsoon. In April, the impact would be mainly on Southern and Northern China. Debris of radioactive plume (~1 mBq m(-3)) would carry out long-range transport to North America. The area of influence would be the smallest in July due to the frequent and intense wet removal events by trough of low pressure and tropical cyclone. The maximum worst-case areas of influence were 2382000, 2327000, 517000 and 1395000 km(2) in January, April, July and October, respectively. Prior to the above calculations, the model was employed to simulate the trans-oceanic transport of (137)Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident. Observed and modeled (137)Cs concentrations were comparable. Sensitivity runs were performed to optimize the wet scavenging parameterization. The adoption of higher-resolution (1° × 1°) meteorological fields improved the prediction. The computed large-scale plume transport pattern over the Pacific Ocean was compared with that reported in the literature.

  20. Mistletoe effects on Scots pine decline following drought events: insights from within-tree spatial patterns, growth and carbohydrates.

    PubMed

    Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, J Julio

    2012-05-01

    Forest decline has been attributed to the interaction of several stressors including biotic factors such as mistletoes and climate-induced drought stress. However, few data exist on how mistletoes are spatially arranged within trees and how this spatial pattern is related to changes in radial growth, responses to drought stress and carbon use. We used dendrochronology to quantify how mistletoe (Viscum album L.) infestation and drought stress affected long-term growth patterns in Pinus sylvestris L. at different heights. Basal area increment (BAI) trends and comparisons between trees of three different infestation degrees (without mistletoe, ID1; moderately infested trees, ID2; and severely infested trees, ID3) were performed using linear mixed-effects models. To identify the main climatic drivers of tree growth tree-ring widths were converted into indexed chronologies and related to climate data using correlation functions. We performed spatial analyses of the 3D distribution of mistletoe individuals and their ages within the crowns of three severely infested pines to describe their patterns. Lastly, we quantified carbohydrate and nitrogen concentrations in needles and sapwood of branches from severely infested trees and from trees without mistletoe. Mistletoe individuals formed strongly clustered groups of similar age within tree crowns and their age increased towards the crown apex. Mistletoe infestation negatively impacted growth but this effect was stronger near the tree apex than in the rest of sampled heights, causing an average loss of 64% in BAI (loss of BAI was ∼51% at 1.3 m or near the tree base). We found that BAI of severely infested trees and moderately or non-infested trees diverged since 2001 and such divergence was magnified by drought. Infested trees had lower concentrations of soluble sugars in their needles than non-infested ones. We conclude that mistletoe infestation causes growth decline and increases the sensitivity of trees to drought

  1. Mistletoe effects on Scots pine decline following drought events: insights from within-tree spatial patterns, growth and carbohydrates.

    PubMed

    Sangüesa-Barreda, Gabriel; Linares, Juan Carlos; Camarero, J Julio

    2012-05-01

    Forest decline has been attributed to the interaction of several stressors including biotic factors such as mistletoes and climate-induced drought stress. However, few data exist on how mistletoes are spatially arranged within trees and how this spatial pattern is related to changes in radial growth, responses to drought stress and carbon use. We used dendrochronology to quantify how mistletoe (Viscum album L.) infestation and drought stress affected long-term growth patterns in Pinus sylvestris L. at different heights. Basal area increment (BAI) trends and comparisons between trees of three different infestation degrees (without mistletoe, ID1; moderately infested trees, ID2; and severely infested trees, ID3) were performed using linear mixed-effects models. To identify the main climatic drivers of tree growth tree-ring widths were converted into indexed chronologies and related to climate data using correlation functions. We performed spatial analyses of the 3D distribution of mistletoe individuals and their ages within the crowns of three severely infested pines to describe their patterns. Lastly, we quantified carbohydrate and nitrogen concentrations in needles and sapwood of branches from severely infested trees and from trees without mistletoe. Mistletoe individuals formed strongly clustered groups of similar age within tree crowns and their age increased towards the crown apex. Mistletoe infestation negatively impacted growth but this effect was stronger near the tree apex than in the rest of sampled heights, causing an average loss of 64% in BAI (loss of BAI was ∼51% at 1.3 m or near the tree base). We found that BAI of severely infested trees and moderately or non-infested trees diverged since 2001 and such divergence was magnified by drought. Infested trees had lower concentrations of soluble sugars in their needles than non-infested ones. We conclude that mistletoe infestation causes growth decline and increases the sensitivity of trees to drought

  2. Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

  3. [Cytogenetic characteristics of seed progeny of common oak trees (Quercus robur L.) exposed to the irradiation after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station and growing at the territories with different levels of anthropogenic contamination].

    PubMed

    Artiukhov, V G; Kalaev, V N

    2005-01-01

    The examination of cytogenetic characteristics (the mitotic activity, the time of passing of the mitotic stages by cells, the level and the spectrum of mitosis disturbances, the nucleoli characteristics) of seed progeny of common oak trees, exposed to the radiation exposure after the accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station and growing at the territories with different levels of anthropogenic contamination was held. In spite of the normalization of the radioactive level at the examined territories the changes of the cytogenetic characteristics of common oak seed progeny in comparison with the control were noticed. Obtained results are explained from the position of the radiation induced genomic instable and of the wave kinetic of the mutation process. The questions of the advisability and of the validity of using of the seed progeny of the common oak trees, exposed to the radiation exposure, in forest restoration measures are discussed.

  4. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit-1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix I, Volume 2, Part 5

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.; Holmes, B.

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Lab. (BNL) and Sandia National Labs. (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The objective of this volume of the report is to document the approach utilized in the level-1 internal events PRA for the Surry plant, and discuss the results obtained. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1, which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis examining accidents initiated by internal events (including internal fire and flood) was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis.

  5. First Responders and Criticality Accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Valerie L. Putman; Douglas M. Minnema

    2005-11-01

    Nuclear criticality accident descriptions typically include, but do not focus on, information useful to first responders. We studied these accidents, noting characteristics to help (1) first responders prepare for such an event and (2) emergency drill planners develop appropriate simulations for training. We also provide recommendations to help people prepare for such events in the future.

  6. [Injuries of the vertebral column--differentiating between natural illnesses manifested at work and illnesses caused by work accidents. Opinionating problems in cases associated with recognizing an event as a work accident in the analysis of materials of the Chair and Department of Forensic Medicine, Medical University of Silesia].

    PubMed

    Chowaniec, Czesław; Nowak, Agnieszka; Chowaniec, Małgorzata; Jabłoński, Christian

    2008-01-01

    In opinionating practice of the Department of Forensic Medicine, Medical University of Silesia, a substantial problem is posed by cases associated with qualifying an event as a work accident or a "natural" illness manifested at work, when the consequence is spinal injury, especially of the overwork (surcharge; overstrain) character. Between 1998-2007, among all 284 medicolegal opinions concerning work accidents and their consequences, 76 opinions (27%) referred to vertebral column injuries or radicular pain syndromes. This has prompted the authors to investigate the problems of spinal injuries analyzed in the context of recognizing an event as a work accident. The paper constitutes a preliminary report and material for more extensive deliberations, demonstrating problems faced by experts passing opinions in cases of this type. In addition, the authors present their observations addressing legal regulations in force and common opinionating practices.

  7. Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

    PubMed Central

    Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

    2013-01-01

    Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

  8. Altered limitations to soil CO2 efflux following a tree mortality event in a semi-arid woodland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berryman, E.; Marshall, J. D.; Litvak, M. E.; Butnor, J. R.; Rahn, T.

    2012-12-01

    Recent mass tree mortality events occurring throughout western North America during the past decade will potentially increase COtextsubscript{2} loss from affected forests and woodlands. A major portion of C lost to the atmosphere is soil COtextsubscript{2} efflux (SE). SE, a combination of root and microbial respiration, is likely affected by mass mortality through key limiting variables: water, C substrate, and nitrogen (N) availability. The loss of active roots may lead to increases in soil water and N availability; the fall of dead litter may enhance labile C supply. These limitations may not act independently of each other; trade-offs may exist between C and water limitation and between C and N limitation. This "sliding scale" model of limitations can help us understand how disturbance might affect C cycle mechanisms. We used field amendments to directly test the effects of piñon mortality on limitations to SE in a piñon-juniper woodland in central New Mexico, USA. In September 2009, piñons were girdled and sprayed with herbicide to induce a mass mortality event and a nearby area was retained as a reference site. Limitation of SE to water, labile C, and N was experimentally tested three years later by monitoring the response of SE to water, sucrose and ammonium sulfate solution applications to both the mineral soil and litter surface. SE was limited by water, C, and N in the mineral soil at both the mortality and reference sites (two-way ANOVA; P<0.001 for all comparisons). In addition, we found that SE increased more in response to both water and N at the mortality-affected site than at the reference site. In contrast, SE responded less to C additions at the mortality-affected site than at the unaltered site. Treatments to the litter surface revealed greater water limitation of SE at the mortality site but no differences in C or N limitation. We propose that the increase in litterfall C at the mortality site drove the increased response of SE to water

  9. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendix E (Sections E.9-E.16), Volume 2, Part 3B

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Wong, S.M.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

  10. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit-1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations. Appendices F-H, Volume 2, Part 4

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.; Yang, J.; Bozoki, G.; Hsu, C.J.; Diamond, D.J.; Bley, D.; Johnson, D.; Holmes, B.

    1994-06-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRA) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Some previous screening analyses that were performed for other modes of operation suggested that risks during those modes were small relative to full power operation. However, more recent studies and operational experience have implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analysis, and uncertainty analysis. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. Internal events analysis is documented in Volume 2. It also contains an appendix that documents the part of the phase 1 study that has to do with POSs other than mid-loop operation. Internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Volumes 3 and 4. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associates, Inc. Volume 6 documents the accident progression, source terms, and consequence analysis.

  11. Human factors analysis and design methods for nuclear waste retrieval systems. Volume III. User's guide for the computerized event-tree analysis technique. [CETAT computer program

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, S.M.; Deretsky, Z.

    1980-08-01

    This document provides detailed instructions for using the Computerized Event-Tree Analysis Technique (CETAT), a program designed to assist a human factors analyst in predicting event probabilities in complex man-machine configurations found in waste retrieval systems. The instructions contained herein describe how to (a) identify the scope of a CETAT analysis, (b) develop operator performance data, (c) enter an event-tree structure, (d) modify a data base, and (e) analyze event paths and man-machine system configurations. Designed to serve as a tool for developing, organizing, and analyzing operator-initiated event probabilities, CETAT simplifies the tasks of the experienced systems analyst by organizing large amounts of data and performing cumbersome and time consuming arithmetic calculations. The principal uses of CETAT in the waste retrieval development project will be to develop models of system reliability and evaluate alternative equipment designs and operator tasks. As with any automated technique, however, the value of the output will be a function of the knowledge and skill of the analyst using the program.

  12. Laboratory evaluation of a SpectraMax microplate reader and test strips for field measurement of creatinine in spot urine samples in the event of a radiological accident.

    PubMed

    Daka, Joseph N; Moodie, Gerry; Li, Chunsheng; Wilkins, Ruth; Kramer, Gary H

    2011-08-01

    The fear that terrorists might use radiological or nuclear (RN) devices to attack others is a new but growing phenomenon, arising mainly from the events of 11 September 2001. Research on rapid analytical methods that can allow analyses of large numbers of people who may become internally contaminated with radionuclides due to a RN accident is still limited. To contribute to this bioassay capacity for emergency response, the Radiation Protection Bureau of Health Canada has identified and evaluated two new portable SpectraMax plate readers (model 250 and Plus 384) and one brand of dry reagent strips for rapid measurement of creatinine in spot urine samples. Concentrations of creatinine in spot urine samples provide a means of adjusting or normalizing urine collections to 24 h, upon which accurate internal dose assessments due to the radionuclides can be made. Preliminary test results of the devices showed the two SpectraMax plate readers and the TECO dry creatinine reagent strips were portable, rapid and reliable for urinary creatinine measurements in spot samples, suggesting they can be used in rapid dose screening of people.

  13. Tree-ring based reconstruction of the seasonal timing, major events and origin of rockfall on a case-study slope in the Swiss Alps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneuwly, D. M.; Stoffel, M.

    2008-03-01

    Tree-ring analysis has been used to reconstruct 22 years of rockfall behavior on an active rockfall slope near Saas Balen (Swiss Alps). We analyzed 32 severely injured trees (L. decidua, P. abies and P. cembra) and investigated cross-sections of 154 wounds. The intra-annual position of callus tissue and of tangential rows of traumatic resin ducts was determined in order to reconstruct the seasonality of past rockfall events. Results indicate strong intra- and inter-annual variations of rockfall activity, with a peak (76%) observed in the dormant season (early October - end of May). Within the growth season, rockfall regularly occurs between the end of May and mid July (21.4%), whereas events later in the season appear to be quite rare (2.6%). Findings suggest that rockfall activity at the study site is driven by annual thawing processes and the circulation of melt water in preexisting fissures. Data also indicate that 43% of all rockfall events occurred in 1995, when two major precipitation events are recorded in nearby meteorological stations. Finally, data on impact angles are in very good agreement with the geomorphic situation in the field.

  14. A reference manual for the Event Progression Analysis Code (EVNTRE)

    SciTech Connect

    Griesmeyer, J.M.; Smith, L.N.

    1989-09-01

    This document is a reference guide for the Event Progression Analysis (EVNTRE) code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. EVNTRE is designed to process the large accident progression event trees and associated files used in probabilistic risk analyses for nuclear power plants. However, the general nature of EVNTRE makes it applicable to a wide variety of analyses that involve the investigation of a progression of events which lead to a large number of sets of conditions or scenarios. The EVNTRE code efficiently processes large, complex event trees. It has the capability to assign probabilities to event tree branch points in several different ways, to classify pathways or outcomes into user-specified groupings, and to sample input distributions of probabilities and parameters.

  15. Persistence of airline accidents.

    PubMed

    Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

    2010-10-01

    This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation.

  16. Rear-end accident victims. Importance of understanding the accident.

    PubMed Central

    Sehmer, J. M.

    1993-01-01

    Family physicians regularly treat victims of rear-end vehicle accidents. This article describes how taking a detailed history of the accident and understanding the significance of the physical events is helpful in understanding and anticipating patients' morbidity and clinical course. Eight questions to ask patients are suggested to help physicians understand the severity of injury. PMID:8495140

  17. Assembly and analysis of a male sterile rubber tree mitochondrial genome reveals DNA rearrangement events and a novel transcript

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background The rubber tree, Hevea brasiliensis, is an important plant species that is commercially grown to produce latex rubber in many countries. The rubber tree variety BPM 24 exhibits cytoplasmic male sterility, inherited from the variety GT 1. Results We constructed the rubber tree mitochondrial genome of a cytoplasmic male sterile variety, BPM 24, using 454 sequencing, including 8 kb paired-end libraries, plus Illumina paired-end sequencing. We annotated this mitochondrial genome with the aid of Illumina RNA-seq data and performed comparative analysis. We then compared the sequence of BPM 24 to the contigs of the published rubber tree, variety RRIM 600, and identified a rearrangement that is unique to BPM 24 resulting in a novel transcript containing a portion of atp9. Conclusions The novel transcript is consistent with changes that cause cytoplasmic male sterility through a slight reduction to ATP production efficiency. The exhaustive nature of the search rules out alternative causes and supports previous findings of novel transcripts causing cytoplasmic male sterility. PMID:24512148

  18. Seasonality and Disturbance Events in the Carbon Isotope Record of Slash Pine (Pinus elliottii) Tree Rings from Big Pine Key, Florida

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebenack, C.; Anderson, W. T.; Cherubini, P.

    2011-12-01

    The South Florida coastal ecosystem is among the world's subtropical coastlines which are threatened by the potential effects of climate change. A well-developed localized paleohistory is essential in the understanding of the role climate variability/change has on both hydrological dynamics and disturbance event frequency and intensity; this understanding can then aid in the development of better predictive models. High resolution paleoclimate proxies, such as those developed from tree-ring archives, may be useful tools for extrapolating actual climate trends over time from the overlapping long-term and short-term climate cycles, such as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In South Florida, both the AMO and ENSO strongly influence seasonal precipitation, and a more complete grasp of how these cycles have affected the region in the past could be applied to future freshwater management practices. Dendrochronology records for the terrestrial subtropics, including South Florida, are sparse because seasonality for this region is precipitation driven; this is in contrast to the drastic temperature changes experienced in the temperate latitudes. Subtropical seasonality may lead to the complete lack of visible rings or to the formation of ring structures that may or may not represent annual growth. Fortunately, it has recently been demonstrated that Pinus elliottii trees in South Florida produce distinct annual growth rings; however ring width was not found to significantly correlate with either the AMO or ENSO. Dendrochronology studies may be taken a step beyond the physical tree-ring proxies by using the carbon isotope ratios to infer information about physiological controls and environmental factors that affect the distribution of isotopes within the plant. It has been well established that the stable isotope composition of cellulose can be related to precipitation, drought, large-scale ocean/atmospheric oscillations

  19. Application of fault tree approach for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing--Considering the risk events related with exhausts of coal combustion.

    PubMed

    Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Qian, Yu

    2016-02-15

    Haze weather has become a serious environmental pollution problem which occurs in many Chinese cities. One of the most critical factors for the formation of haze weather is the exhausts of coal combustion, thus it is meaningful to figure out the causation mechanism between urban haze and the exhausts of coal combustion. Based on above considerations, the fault tree analysis (FAT) approach was employed for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing by considering the risk events related with the exhausts of coal combustion for the first time. Using this approach, firstly the fault tree of the urban haze causation system connecting with coal combustion exhausts was established; consequently the risk events were discussed and identified; then, the minimal cut sets were successfully determined using Boolean algebra; finally, the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk events were completed for the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The study results proved that the FTA was an effective and simple tool for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of urban haze in China. PMID:26493345

  20. Application of fault tree approach for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing--Considering the risk events related with exhausts of coal combustion.

    PubMed

    Huang, Weiqing; Fan, Hongbo; Qiu, Yongfu; Cheng, Zhiyu; Qian, Yu

    2016-02-15

    Haze weather has become a serious environmental pollution problem which occurs in many Chinese cities. One of the most critical factors for the formation of haze weather is the exhausts of coal combustion, thus it is meaningful to figure out the causation mechanism between urban haze and the exhausts of coal combustion. Based on above considerations, the fault tree analysis (FAT) approach was employed for the causation mechanism of urban haze in Beijing by considering the risk events related with the exhausts of coal combustion for the first time. Using this approach, firstly the fault tree of the urban haze causation system connecting with coal combustion exhausts was established; consequently the risk events were discussed and identified; then, the minimal cut sets were successfully determined using Boolean algebra; finally, the structure, probability and critical importance degree analysis of the risk events were completed for the qualitative and quantitative assessment. The study results proved that the FTA was an effective and simple tool for the causation mechanism analysis and risk management of urban haze in China.

  1. Injuries are not accidents

    PubMed Central

    Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

  2. Advance Liquid Metal Reactor Discrete Dynamic Event Tree/Bayesian Network Analysis and Incident Management Guidelines (Risk Management for Sodium Fast Reactors)

    SciTech Connect

    Denman, Matthew R.; Groth, Katrina M.; Cardoni, Jeffrey N.; Wheeler, Timothy A.

    2015-04-01

    Accident management is an important component to maintaining risk at acceptable levels for all complex systems, such as nuclear power plants. With the introduction of self-correcting, or inherently safe, reactor designs the focus has shifted from management by operators to allowing the system's design to manage the accident. Inherently and passively safe designs are laudable, but nonetheless extreme boundary conditions can interfere with the design attributes which facilitate inherent safety, thus resulting in unanticipated and undesirable end states. This report examines an inherently safe and small sodium fast reactor experiencing a beyond design basis seismic event with the intend of exploring two issues : (1) can human intervention either improve or worsen the potential end states and (2) can a Bayesian Network be constructed to infer the state of the reactor to inform (1). ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The authors would like to acknowledge the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy for funding this research through Work Package SR-14SN100303 under the Advanced Reactor Concepts program. The authors also acknowledge the PRA teams at Argonne National Laboratory, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and Idaho National Laboratory for their continue d contributions to the advanced reactor PRA mission area.

  3. Graphical fault tree analysis for fatal falls in the construction industry.

    PubMed

    Chi, Chia-Fen; Lin, Syuan-Zih; Dewi, Ratna Sari

    2014-11-01

    The current study applied a fault tree analysis to represent the causal relationships among events and causes that contributed to fatal falls in the construction industry. Four hundred and eleven work-related fatalities in the Taiwanese construction industry were analyzed in terms of age, gender, experience, falling site, falling height, company size, and the causes for each fatality. Given that most fatal accidents involve multiple events, the current study coded up to a maximum of three causes for each fall fatality. After the Boolean algebra and minimal cut set analyses, accident causes associated with each falling site can be presented as a fault tree to provide an overview of the basic causes, which could trigger fall fatalities in the construction industry. Graphical icons were designed for each falling site along with the associated accident causes to illustrate the fault tree in a graphical manner. A graphical fault tree can improve inter-disciplinary discussion of risk management and the communication of accident causation to first line supervisors.

  4. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  5. Variability in runoff fluxes of dissolved and particulate carbon and nitrogen from two watersheds of different tree species during intense storm events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Mi-Hee; Payeur-Poirier, Jean-Lionel; Park, Ji-Hyung; Matzner, Egbert

    2016-09-01

    Heavy storm events may increase the amount of organic matter in runoff from forested watersheds as well as the relation of dissolved to particulate organic matter. This study evaluated the effects of monsoon storm events on the runoff fluxes and on the composition of dissolved (< 0.45 µm) and particulate (0.7 µm to 1 mm) organic carbon and nitrogen (DOC, DON, POC, PON) in a mixed coniferous/deciduous (mixed watershed) and a deciduous forested watershed (deciduous watershed) in South Korea. During storm events, DOC concentrations in runoff increased with discharge, while DON concentrations remained almost constant. DOC, DON and NO3-N fluxes in runoff increased linearly with discharge pointing to changing flow paths from deeper to upper soil layers at high discharge, whereas nonlinear responses of POC and PON fluxes were observed likely due to the origin of particulate matter from the erosion of mineral soil along the stream benches. The integrated C and N fluxes in runoff over the 2-month study period were in the order of DOC > POC and NO3-N > DON > PON. The integrated DOC fluxes in runoff during the study period were much larger at the deciduous watershed (16 kg C ha-1) than at the mixed watershed (7 kg C ha-1), while the integrated NO3-N fluxes were higher at the mixed watershed (5.2 kg N ha-1) than at the deciduous watershed (2.9 kg N ha-1). The latter suggests a larger N uptake by deciduous trees. Integrated fluxes of POC and PON were similar at both watersheds. The composition of organic matter in soils and runoff indicates that the contribution of near-surface flow to runoff was larger at the deciduous than at the mixed watershed. Our results demonstrate different responses of particulate and dissolved C and N in runoff to storm events as a combined effect of tree species composition and watershed specific flow paths.

  6. A 414-year tree-ring-based April-July minimum temperature reconstruction and its implications for the extreme climate events, northeast China

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyu, Shanna; Li, Zongshan; Zhang, Yuandong; Wang, Xiaochun

    2016-09-01

    A ring-width series was used as a proxy to reconstruct the past 414-year record of April-July minimum temperature at Laobai Mountain, northeast China. The chronology was built using standard tree-ring procedures for providing comparable information in this area while preserving low-frequency signals. By analyzing the relationship between the tree-ring chronology of Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis) and meteorological data, we found that the standard chronology was significantly correlated with the April-July minimum temperature (r = 0.757, p < 0.01). Therefore, the April-July minimum temperature since 1600 (more than six trees, but the expressed population signal (EPS) is greater than 0.85 since 1660) was reconstructed by this tree-ring series. The reconstruction equation accounted for 57.3 % of temperature variation, and it was proved reliable by testing with several methods (e.g., sign test, product mean test, reduction of the error, and coefficient of efficiency). Reconstructed April-July minimum temperature on Laobai Mountain showed six major cold periods (1605-1616, 1645-1677, 1684-1691, 1911-1924, 1930-1942, and 1951-1969) and seven major warm periods (1767-1785, 1787-1793, 1795-1807, 1819-1826, 1838-1848, 1856-1873, and 1991-2008) during the past 414 years. The reconstructed low-temperature periods in the 17th and early 18th century were consistent with the Little Ice Age (LIA) in the Northern Hemisphere, and the rate of warming in the 19th century was significantly slower than that in the late 20th century. In addition, the reconstructed series was fairly consistent with the historical and natural disaster records of extreme climate events (e.g., cold damage and frost disaster) in this area. This temperature record provides new evidence of past climate variability, and can be used to predict the climate trend in the future in northeast China.

  7. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  8. Radiotherapy Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mckenzie, Alan

    A major benefit of a Quality Assurance system in a radiotherapy centre is that it reduces the likelihood of an accident. For over 20 years I have been the interface in the UK between the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine and the media — newspapers, radio and TV — and so I have learned about radiotherapy accidents from personal experience. In some cases, these accidents did not become public and so the hospital cannot be identified. Nevertheless, lessons are still being learned.

  9. Using Pennsylvania's Three Mile Island Accident as a Case Study to Analyze Newspaper Coverage: A Diary of Events and Suggestions for Teaching Strategies.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Susskind, Jacob L.

    1983-01-01

    Methods for studying the coverage of the same current news story in several newspapers are outlined. Secondary school students critically examine news reporting, detect false or propagandistic reports, and learn to weigh and judge evidence. An example using the Three Mile Island nuclear accident is provided. (KC)

  10. Accident prevention manual

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1998-05-01

    Among the many common needs and goals are the safety and well-being of families, ourselves, fellow employees, and the continuing success of this organization. To these ends--minimizing human suffering and economic waste--the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Accident Prevention Program and this Accident Prevention Manual (APM) are dedicated. The BPA Accident Prevention Program is revised as necessary to ensure compliance with relevant Federal safety and health standards. The mandatory rules herein express minimum requirements for dealing with the principal hazards inherent in daily work activities. These and other written requirements, which neither can nor should provide complete coverage of all work situations, must be continually reinforced through the sound and mature safety judgments of all workers on each assigned task. In the event of conflicting judgments, the more conservative interpretation shall prevail pending review and resolution by management.

  11. Fault-Tree Compiler

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Boerschlein, David P.

    1993-01-01

    Fault-Tree Compiler (FTC) program, is software tool used to calculate probability of top event in fault tree. Gates of five different types allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language easy to understand and use. In addition, program supports hierarchical fault-tree definition feature, which simplifies tree-description process and reduces execution time. Set of programs created forming basis for reliability-analysis workstation: SURE, ASSIST, PAWS/STEM, and FTC fault-tree tool (LAR-14586). Written in PASCAL, ANSI-compliant C language, and FORTRAN 77. Other versions available upon request.

  12. 50 CFR 25.72 - Reporting of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ..., but in no event later than 24 hours after the accident, by the persons involved, to the refuge manager... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 8 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Reporting of accidents. 25.72 Section 25... Reporting of accidents. Accidents involving damage to property, injury to the public or injury to...

  13. 50 CFR 25.72 - Reporting of accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ..., but in no event later than 24 hours after the accident, by the persons involved, to the refuge manager... 50 Wildlife and Fisheries 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Reporting of accidents. 25.72 Section 25... Reporting of accidents. Accidents involving damage to property, injury to the public or injury to...

  14. 46 CFR 97.30-5 - Accidents to machinery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accidents to machinery. 97.30-5 Section 97.30-5 Shipping... Reports of Accidents, Repairs, and Unsafe Equipment § 97.30-5 Accidents to machinery. (a) In the event of an accident to a boiler, unfired pressure vessel, or machinery tending to render the further use...

  15. 46 CFR 196.30-5 - Accidents to machinery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 7 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accidents to machinery. 196.30-5 Section 196.30-5... Reports of Accidents, Repairs, and Unsafe Equipment § 196.30-5 Accidents to machinery. (a) In the event of an accident to a boiler, unfired pressure vessel, or machinery tending to render the further use...

  16. 46 CFR 78.33-5 - Accidents to machinery.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 46 Shipping 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accidents to machinery. 78.33-5 Section 78.33-5 Shipping... Accidents, Repairs, and Unsafe Equipment § 78.33-5 Accidents to machinery. (a) In the event of an accident to a boiler, unfired pressure vessel, or machinery tending to render the further use of the...

  17. Accident sequence analysis for sites producing and storing explosives.

    PubMed

    Papazoglou, Ioannis A; Aneziris, Olga; Konstandinidou, Myrto; Giakoumatos, Ieronymos

    2009-11-01

    This paper presents a QRA-based approach for assessing and evaluating the safety of installations handling explosive substances. Comprehensive generic lists of immediate causes and initiating events of detonation and deflagration of explosive substances as well as safety measures preventing these explosions are developed. Initiating events and corresponding measures are grouped under the more general categories of explosion due to shock wave, explosion due to mechanical energy, thermal energy, electrical energy, chemical energy, and electromagnetic radiation. Generic accident sequences are developed using Event Trees. This analysis is adapted to plant-specific conditions and potentially additional protective measures are rank-ordered in terms of the induced reduction in the frequency of explosion, by including also uncertainty. This approach has been applied to 14 plants in Greece with very satisfactory results. PMID:19819362

  18. Accident sequence analysis for sites producing and storing explosives.

    PubMed

    Papazoglou, Ioannis A; Aneziris, Olga; Konstandinidou, Myrto; Giakoumatos, Ieronymos

    2009-11-01

    This paper presents a QRA-based approach for assessing and evaluating the safety of installations handling explosive substances. Comprehensive generic lists of immediate causes and initiating events of detonation and deflagration of explosive substances as well as safety measures preventing these explosions are developed. Initiating events and corresponding measures are grouped under the more general categories of explosion due to shock wave, explosion due to mechanical energy, thermal energy, electrical energy, chemical energy, and electromagnetic radiation. Generic accident sequences are developed using Event Trees. This analysis is adapted to plant-specific conditions and potentially additional protective measures are rank-ordered in terms of the induced reduction in the frequency of explosion, by including also uncertainty. This approach has been applied to 14 plants in Greece with very satisfactory results.

  19. [Good practice in occupational health services--Certification of stroke as an accident at work. Need for secondary prevention in people returning to work after acute cerebrovascular events].

    PubMed

    Marcinkiewicz, Andrzej; Walusiak-Skorupa, Jolanta

    2015-01-01

    The classification of an acute vascular episode, both heart infarct and stroke, as an accident at work poses difficulties not only for post accidental teams, but also to occupational health professionals, experts and judges at labor and social insurance courts. This article presents the case of a 41-year-old office worker, whose job involved client services. While attending a very aggressive customer she developed solid stress that resulted in symptoms of the central nervous system (headache, speech disturbances). During her hospitalisation at the neurological unit ischemic stroke with transient mixed type aphasia was diagnosed. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan of the head revealed subacute ischemia. After an analysis of the accident circumstances, the employer's post accidental team decided that ischemic stroke had been an accident at work, because it was a sudden incident due to an external cause inducing work-related traumatic stroke. As a primary cause tough stress and emotional strain due to the situation developed while attending the customer were acknowledged. During control medical check up after 5 months the patient was found to be fit for work, so she could return to work. However, it should be noted that such a check up examination of subjects returning to work after stroke must be holistic, including the evaluation of job predispositions and health education aimed at secondary prevention of heart and vascular diseases with special reference to their risk factors. PMID:26536976

  20. [Good practice in occupational health services--Certification of stroke as an accident at work. Need for secondary prevention in people returning to work after acute cerebrovascular events].

    PubMed

    Marcinkiewicz, Andrzej; Walusiak-Skorupa, Jolanta

    2015-01-01

    The classification of an acute vascular episode, both heart infarct and stroke, as an accident at work poses difficulties not only for post accidental teams, but also to occupational health professionals, experts and judges at labor and social insurance courts. This article presents the case of a 41-year-old office worker, whose job involved client services. While attending a very aggressive customer she developed solid stress that resulted in symptoms of the central nervous system (headache, speech disturbances). During her hospitalisation at the neurological unit ischemic stroke with transient mixed type aphasia was diagnosed. Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scan of the head revealed subacute ischemia. After an analysis of the accident circumstances, the employer's post accidental team decided that ischemic stroke had been an accident at work, because it was a sudden incident due to an external cause inducing work-related traumatic stroke. As a primary cause tough stress and emotional strain due to the situation developed while attending the customer were acknowledged. During control medical check up after 5 months the patient was found to be fit for work, so she could return to work. However, it should be noted that such a check up examination of subjects returning to work after stroke must be holistic, including the evaluation of job predispositions and health education aimed at secondary prevention of heart and vascular diseases with special reference to their risk factors.

  1. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 1 models

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.; Schroeder, J.A.; Siu, N.O.

    1996-03-01

    INEL has been involved in the development of plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models for the past two years. These models were developed for use with the SAPHIRE suite of PRA computer codes. They contained event tree/linked fault tree Level 1 risk models for the following initiating events: general transient, loss-of-offsite-power, steam generator tube rupture, small loss-of-coolant-accident, and anticipated transient without scram. Early in 1995 the ASP models were revised based on review comments from the NRC and an independent peer review. These models were released as Revision 1. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has sponsored several projects at the INEL this fiscal year to further enhance the capabilities of the ASP models. Revision 2 models incorporates more detailed plant information into the models concerning plant response to station blackout conditions, information on battery life, and other unique features gleaned from an Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation quick review of the Individual Plant Examination submittals. These models are currently being delivered to the NRC as they are completed. A related project is a feasibility study and model development of low power/shutdown (LP/SD) and external event extensions to the ASP models. This project will establish criteria for selection of LP/SD and external initiator operational events for analysis within the ASP program. Prototype models for each pertinent initiating event (loss of shutdown cooling, loss of inventory control, fire, flood, seismic, etc.) will be developed. A third project concerns development of enhancements to SAPHIRE. In relation to the ASP program, a new SAPHIRE module, GEM, was developed as a specific user interface for performing ASP evaluations. This module greatly simplifies the analysis process for determining the conditional core damage probability for a given combination of initiating events and equipment failures or degradations.

  2. Accident Conditions versus Regulatory Test for NRC-Approved UF6 Packages

    SciTech Connect

    MILLS, G. SCOTT; AMMERMAN, DOUGLAS J.; LOPEZ, CARLOS

    2003-01-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) approves new package designs for shipping fissile quantities of UF{sub 6}. Currently there are three packages approved by the NRC for domestic shipments of fissile quantities of UF{sub 6}: NCI-21PF-1; UX-30; and ESP30X. For approval by the NRC, packages must be subjected to a sequence of physical tests to simulate transportation accident conditions as described in 10 CFR Part 71. The primary objective of this project was to relate the conditions experienced by these packages in the tests described in 10 CFR Part 71 to conditions potentially encountered in actual accidents and to estimate the probabilities of such accidents. Comparison of the effects of actual accident conditions to 10 CFR Part 71 tests was achieved by means of computer modeling of structural effects on the packages due to impacts with actual surfaces, and thermal effects resulting from test and other fire scenarios. In addition, the likelihood of encountering bodies of water or sufficient rainfall to cause complete or partial immersion during transport over representative truck routes was assessed. Modeled effects, and their associated probabilities, were combined with existing event-tree data, plus accident rates and other characteristics gathered from representative routes, to derive generalized probabilities of encountering accident conditions comparable to the 10 CFR Part 71 conditions. This analysis suggests that the regulatory conditions are unlikely to be exceeded in real accidents, i.e. the likelihood of UF{sub 6} being dispersed as a result of accident impact or fire is small. Moreover, given that an accident has occurred, exposure to water by fire-fighting, heavy rain or submersion in a body of water is even less probable by factors ranging from 0.5 to 8E-6.

  3. Developing techniques for cause-responsibility analysis of occupational accidents.

    PubMed

    Jabbari, Mousa; Ghorbani, Roghayeh

    2016-11-01

    The aim of this study was to specify the causes of occupational accidents, determine social responsibility and the role of groups involved in work-related accidents. This study develops occupational accidents causes tree, occupational accidents responsibility tree, and occupational accidents component-responsibility analysis worksheet; based on these methods, it develops cause-responsibility analysis (CRA) techniques, and for testing them, analyzes 100 fatal/disabling occupational accidents in the construction setting that were randomly selected from all the work-related accidents in Tehran, Iran, over a 5-year period (2010-2014). The main result of this study involves two techniques for CRA: occupational accidents tree analysis (OATA) and occupational accidents components analysis (OACA), used in parallel for determination of responsible groups and responsibilities rate. From the results, we find that the management group of construction projects has 74.65% responsibility of work-related accidents. The developed techniques are purposeful for occupational accidents investigation/analysis, especially for the determination of detailed list of tasks, responsibilities, and their rates. Therefore, it is useful for preventing work-related accidents by focusing on the responsible group's duties.

  4. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 2 models

    SciTech Connect

    Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.; Rempe, J.L.

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor program pursues the ultimate objective of performing risk significant evaluations on operational events (precursors) occurring in commercial nuclear power plants. To achieve this objective, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research is supporting the development of simple probabilistic risk assessment models for all commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) in the U.S. Presently, only simple Level 1 plant models have been developed which estimate core damage frequencies. In order to provide a true risk perspective, the consequences associated with postulated core damage accidents also need to be considered. With the objective of performing risk evaluations in an integrated and consistent manner, a linked event tree approach which propagates the front end results to back end was developed. This approach utilizes simple plant models that analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude and timing of a radioactive release to the environment, and calculate the consequences for a given release. Detailed models and results from previous studies, such as the NUREG-1150 study, are used to quantify these simple models. These simple models are then linked to the existing Level 1 models, and are evaluated using the SAPHIRE code. To demonstrate the approach, prototypic models have been developed for a boiling water reactor, Peach Bottom, and a pressurized water reactor, Zion.

  5. Type A Accident Investigation Board report on the January 17, 1996, electrical accident with injury in Technical Area 21 Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-01

    An electrical accident was investigated in which a crafts person received serious injuries as a result of coming into contact with a 13.2 kilovolt (kV) electrical cable in the basement of Building 209 in Technical Area 21 (TA-21-209) in the Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility (TSFF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In conducting its investigation, the Accident Investigation Board used various analytical techniques, including events and causal factor analysis, barrier analysis, change analysis, fault tree analysis, materials analysis, and root cause analysis. The board inspected the accident site, reviewed events surrounding the accident, conducted extensive interviews and document reviews, and performed causation analyses to determine the factors that contributed to the accident, including any management system deficiencies. Relevant management systems and factors that could have contributed to the accident were evaluated in accordance with the guiding principles of safety management identified by the Secretary of Energy in an October 1994 letter to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board and subsequently to Congress.

  6. A general approach to critical infrastructure accident consequences analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bogalecka, Magda; Kołowrocki, Krzysztof; Soszyńska-Budny, Joanna

    2016-06-01

    The probabilistic general model of critical infrastructure accident consequences including the process of the models of initiating events generated by its accident, the process of environment threats and the process of environment degradation is presented.

  7. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events during mid-loop operations

    SciTech Connect

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1) and the other at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf). Both the Brookhaven and Sandia projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults--so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling shutdown conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Surry Unit 1. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human error rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Surry have been adopted here, so that the results of the two studies can be as comparable as possible. Both the Brookhaven study and this study examine only two shutdown plant operating states (POSs) during refueling outages at Surry, called POS 6 and POS 10, which represent mid-loop operation before and after refueling, respectively. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POSs 6 and 10. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency of earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 6 and POS 10 is found to be low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}6}/year.

  8. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 5: Analysis of core damage frequency from seismic events for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage

    SciTech Connect

    Budnitz, R.J.; Davis, P.R.; Ravindra, M.K.; Tong, W.H.

    1994-08-01

    In 1989 the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to examine carefully the potential risks during low-power and shutdown operations. The program included two parallel projects, one at Sandia National Laboratories studying a boiling water reactor (Grand Gulf), and the other at Brookhaven National Laboratory studying a pressurized water reactor (Surry Unit 1). Both the Sandia and Brookhaven projects have examined only accidents initiated by internal plant faults---so-called ``internal initiators.`` This project, which has explored the likelihood of seismic-initiated core damage accidents during refueling outage conditions, is complementary to the internal-initiator analyses at Brookhaven and Sandia. This report covers the seismic analysis at Grand Gulf. All of the many systems modeling assumptions, component non-seismic failure rates, and human effort rates that were used in the internal-initiator study at Grand Gulf have been adopted here, so that the results of the study can be as comparable as possible. Both the Sandia study and this study examine only one shutdown plant operating state (POS) at Grand Gulf, namely POS 5 representing cold shutdown during a refueling outage. This analysis has been limited to work analogous to a level-1 seismic PRA, in which estimates have been developed for the core-damage frequency from seismic events during POS 5. The results of the analysis are that the core-damage frequency for earthquake-initiated accidents during refueling outages in POS 5 is found to be quite low in absolute terms, less than 10{sup {minus}7}/year.

  9. Construction of a technique plan repository and evaluation system based on AHP group decision-making for emergency treatment and disposal in chemical pollution accidents.

    PubMed

    Shi, Shenggang; Cao, Jingcan; Feng, Li; Liang, Wenyan; Zhang, Liqiu

    2014-07-15

    The environmental pollution resulting from chemical accidents has caused increasingly serious concerns. Therefore, it is very important to be able to determine in advance the appropriate emergency treatment and disposal technology for different types of chemical accidents. However, the formulation of an emergency plan for chemical pollution accidents is considerably difficult due to the substantial uncertainty and complexity of such accidents. This paper explains how the event tree method was used to create 54 different scenarios for chemical pollution accidents, based on the polluted medium, dangerous characteristics and properties of chemicals involved. For each type of chemical accident, feasible emergency treatment and disposal technology schemes were established, considering the areas of pollution source control, pollutant non-proliferation, contaminant elimination and waste disposal. Meanwhile, in order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs from the plan repository, the technique evaluation index system was developed based on group decision-improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and has been tested by using a sudden aniline pollution accident that occurred in a river in December 2012. PMID:24887122

  10. Construction of a technique plan repository and evaluation system based on AHP group decision-making for emergency treatment and disposal in chemical pollution accidents.

    PubMed

    Shi, Shenggang; Cao, Jingcan; Feng, Li; Liang, Wenyan; Zhang, Liqiu

    2014-07-15

    The environmental pollution resulting from chemical accidents has caused increasingly serious concerns. Therefore, it is very important to be able to determine in advance the appropriate emergency treatment and disposal technology for different types of chemical accidents. However, the formulation of an emergency plan for chemical pollution accidents is considerably difficult due to the substantial uncertainty and complexity of such accidents. This paper explains how the event tree method was used to create 54 different scenarios for chemical pollution accidents, based on the polluted medium, dangerous characteristics and properties of chemicals involved. For each type of chemical accident, feasible emergency treatment and disposal technology schemes were established, considering the areas of pollution source control, pollutant non-proliferation, contaminant elimination and waste disposal. Meanwhile, in order to obtain the optimum emergency disposal technology schemes as soon as the chemical pollution accident occurs from the plan repository, the technique evaluation index system was developed based on group decision-improved analytical hierarchy process (AHP), and has been tested by using a sudden aniline pollution accident that occurred in a river in December 2012.

  11. Binary Logistic Regression Versus Boosted Regression Trees in Assessing Landslide Susceptibility for Multiple-Occurring Regional Landslide Events: Application to the 2009 Storm Event in Messina (Sicily, southern Italy).

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lombardo, L.; Cama, M.; Maerker, M.; Parisi, L.; Rotigliano, E.

    2014-12-01

    This study aims at comparing the performances of Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) methods in assessing landslide susceptibility for multiple-occurrence regional landslide events within the Mediterranean region. A test area was selected in the north-eastern sector of Sicily (southern Italy), corresponding to the catchments of the Briga and the Giampilieri streams both stretching for few kilometres from the Peloritan ridge (eastern Sicily, Italy) to the Ionian sea. This area was struck on the 1st October 2009 by an extreme climatic event resulting in thousands of rapid shallow landslides, mainly of debris flows and debris avalanches types involving the weathered layer of a low to high grade metamorphic bedrock. Exploiting the same set of predictors and the 2009 landslide archive, BLR- and BRT-based susceptibility models were obtained for the two catchments separately, adopting a random partition (RP) technique for validation; besides, the models trained in one of the two catchments (Briga) were tested in predicting the landslide distribution in the other (Giampilieri), adopting a spatial partition (SP) based validation procedure. All the validation procedures were based on multi-folds tests so to evaluate and compare the reliability of the fitting, the prediction skill, the coherence in the predictor selection and the precision of the susceptibility estimates. All the obtained models for the two methods produced very high predictive performances, with a general congruence between BLR and BRT in the predictor importance. In particular, the research highlighted that BRT-models reached a higher prediction performance with respect to BLR-models, for RP based modelling, whilst for the SP-based models the difference in predictive skills between the two methods dropped drastically, converging to an analogous excellent performance. However, when looking at the precision of the probability estimates, BLR demonstrated to produce more robust

  12. [Drowning accidents in childhood].

    PubMed

    Krandick, G; Mantel, K

    1990-09-30

    This is a report on five boys aged between 1 and 5 years who, after prolonged submersion in cold water, were treated at our department. On being taken out of the water, all the patients were clinically dead. After 1- to 3-hour successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation, with a rectal temperature of about 27 degrees C, they were rewarmed at a rate of 1 degree/hour. Two patients died within a few hours after the accident. One patient survived with an apallic syndrome, 2 children survived with no sequelae. In the event of a water-related accident associated with hypothermia, we consider suitable resuscitation to have preference over rewarming measures. The most important treatment guidelines and prognostic factors are discussed.

  13. Anthropotechnological analysis of industrial accidents in Brazil.

    PubMed Central

    Binder, M. C.; de Almeida, I. M.; Monteau, M.

    1999-01-01

    The Brazilian Ministry of Labour has been attempting to modify the norms used to analyse industrial accidents in the country. For this purpose, in 1994 it tried to make compulsory use of the causal tree approach to accident analysis, an approach developed in France during the 1970s, without having previously determined whether it is suitable for use under the industrial safety conditions that prevail in most Brazilian firms. In addition, opposition from Brazilian employers has blocked the proposed changes to the norms. The present study employed anthropotechnology to analyse experimental application of the causal tree method to work-related accidents in industrial firms in the region of Botucatu, São Paulo. Three work-related accidents were examined in three industrial firms representative of local, national and multinational companies. On the basis of the accidents analysed in this study, the rationale for the use of the causal tree method in Brazil can be summarized for each type of firm as follows: the method is redundant if there is a predominance of the type of risk whose elimination or neutralization requires adoption of conventional industrial safety measures (firm representative of local enterprises); the method is worth while if the company's specific technical risks have already largely been eliminated (firm representative of national enterprises); and the method is particularly appropriate if the firm has a good safety record and the causes of accidents are primarily related to industrial organization and management (multinational enterprise). PMID:10680249

  14. Under which conditions, additional monitoring data are worth gathering for improving decision making? Application of the VOI theory in the Bayesian Event Tree eruption forecasting framework

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loschetter, Annick; Rohmer, Jérémy

    2016-04-01

    Standard and new generation of monitoring observations provide in almost real-time important information about the evolution of the volcanic system. These observations are used to update the model and contribute to a better hazard assessment and to support decision making concerning potential evacuation. The framework BET_EF (based on Bayesian Event Tree) developed by INGV enables dealing with the integration of information from monitoring with the prospect of decision making. Using this framework, the objectives of the present work are i. to propose a method to assess the added value of information (within the Value Of Information (VOI) theory) from monitoring; ii. to perform sensitivity analysis on the different parameters that influence the VOI from monitoring. VOI consists in assessing the possible increase in expected value provided by gathering information, for instance through monitoring. Basically, the VOI is the difference between the value with information and the value without additional information in a Cost-Benefit approach. This theory is well suited to deal with situations that can be represented in the form of a decision tree such as the BET_EF tool. Reference values and ranges of variation (for sensitivity analysis) were defined for input parameters, based on data from the MESIMEX exercise (performed at Vesuvio volcano in 2006). Complementary methods for sensitivity analyses were implemented: local, global using Sobol' indices and regional using Contribution to Sample Mean and Variance plots. The results (specific to the case considered) obtained with the different techniques are in good agreement and enable answering the following questions: i. Which characteristics of monitoring are important for early warning (reliability)? ii. How do experts' opinions influence the hazard assessment and thus the decision? Concerning the characteristics of monitoring, the more influent parameters are the means rather than the variances for the case considered

  15. Radiation accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Saenger, E.L.

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity.

  16. Radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Saenger, E L

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity. PMID:3526994

  17. Tree mortality following prescribed fire and a storm surge event in Slash Pine (pinus elliottii var. densa) forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated with tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.

  18. Tree Mortality following Prescribed Fire and a Storm Surge Event in Slash Pine ( Pinus elliottii var. densa ) Forests in the Florida Keys, USA

    DOE PAGES

    Sah, Jay P.; Ross, Michael S.; Snyder, James R.; Ogurcak, Danielle E.

    2010-01-01

    In fire-dependent forests, managers are interested in predicting the consequences of prescribed burning on postfire tree mortality. We examined the effects of prescribed fire on tree mortality in Florida Keys pine forests, using a factorial design with understory type, season, and year of burn as factors. We also used logistic regression to model the effects of burn season, fire severity, and tree dimensions on individual tree mortality. Despite limited statistical power due to problems in carrying out the full suite of planned experimental burns, associations with tree and fire variables were observed. Post-fire pine tree mortality was negatively correlated withmore » tree size and positively correlated with char height and percent crown scorch. Unlike post-fire mortality, tree mortality associated with storm surge from Hurricane Wilma was greater in the large size classes. Due to their influence on population structure and fuel dynamics, the size-selective mortality patterns following fire and storm surge have practical importance for using fire as a management tool in Florida Keys pinelands in the future, particularly when the threats to their continued existence from tropical storms and sea level rise are expected to increase.« less

  19. Performance of collision damage mitigation braking systems and their effects on human injury in the event of car-to-pedestrian accidents.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Han, Yong; Mizuno, Koji

    2011-11-01

    The number of traffic deaths in Japan was 4,863 in 2010. Pedestrians account for the highest number (1,714, 35%), and vehicle occupants the second highest (1,602, 33%). Pedestrian protection is a key countermeasure to reduce casualties in traffic accidents. A striking vehicle's impact velocity could be considered a parameter influencing the severity of injury and possibility of death in pedestrian crashes. A collision damage mitigation braking system (CDMBS) using a sensor to detect pedestrians could be effective for reducing the vehicle/pedestrian impact velocity. Currently in Japan, cars equipped with the CDMBS also have vision sensors such as a stereo camera for pedestrian detection. However, the ability of vision sensors in production cars to properly detect pedestrians has not yet been established. The effect of reducing impact velocity on the pedestrian injury risk has also not been determined. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the CDMBS in detecting pedestrians when it is installed in production cars. The second objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of reducing impact velocity on mitigating pedestrian injury. Firstly, impact experiments were performed using a car with the CDMBS in which the car collided with a pedestrian surrogate. In these tests, the velocity was chosen for the various test runs to be 20, 40 and 60 km/h, respectively, which were based on the velocity distribution in real-world pedestrian crashes. The results indicated that the impact velocity reduction ranged approximately from 10 to 15 km/h at the standing location of a pedestrian surrogate at both daytime and nighttime lighting conditions. These results show that the system has the potential to reduce pedestrian casualties from car-to-pedestrian contacts. Secondly, finite-element analyses were performed simulating vehicle-to- pedestrian impacts with the THUMS pedestrian models. The vehicle models selected for the study included a medium sedan

  20. Performance of collision damage mitigation braking systems and their effects on human injury in the event of car-to-pedestrian accidents.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Han, Yong; Mizuno, Koji

    2011-11-01

    The number of traffic deaths in Japan was 4,863 in 2010. Pedestrians account for the highest number (1,714, 35%), and vehicle occupants the second highest (1,602, 33%). Pedestrian protection is a key countermeasure to reduce casualties in traffic accidents. A striking vehicle's impact velocity could be considered a parameter influencing the severity of injury and possibility of death in pedestrian crashes. A collision damage mitigation braking system (CDMBS) using a sensor to detect pedestrians could be effective for reducing the vehicle/pedestrian impact velocity. Currently in Japan, cars equipped with the CDMBS also have vision sensors such as a stereo camera for pedestrian detection. However, the ability of vision sensors in production cars to properly detect pedestrians has not yet been established. The effect of reducing impact velocity on the pedestrian injury risk has also not been determined. The first objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of the CDMBS in detecting pedestrians when it is installed in production cars. The second objective of this study is to evaluate the effect of reducing impact velocity on mitigating pedestrian injury. Firstly, impact experiments were performed using a car with the CDMBS in which the car collided with a pedestrian surrogate. In these tests, the velocity was chosen for the various test runs to be 20, 40 and 60 km/h, respectively, which were based on the velocity distribution in real-world pedestrian crashes. The results indicated that the impact velocity reduction ranged approximately from 10 to 15 km/h at the standing location of a pedestrian surrogate at both daytime and nighttime lighting conditions. These results show that the system has the potential to reduce pedestrian casualties from car-to-pedestrian contacts. Secondly, finite-element analyses were performed simulating vehicle-to- pedestrian impacts with the THUMS pedestrian models. The vehicle models selected for the study included a medium sedan

  1. Aircraft Loss-of-Control Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Belcastro, Christine M.; Foster, John V.

    2010-01-01

    Loss of control remains one of the largest contributors to fatal aircraft accidents worldwide. Aircraft loss-of-control accidents are complex in that they can result from numerous causal and contributing factors acting alone or (more often) in combination. Hence, there is no single intervention strategy to prevent these accidents. To gain a better understanding into aircraft loss-of-control events and possible intervention strategies, this paper presents a detailed analysis of loss-of-control accident data (predominantly from Part 121), including worst case combinations of causal and contributing factors and their sequencing. Future potential risks are also considered.

  2. Evaluation of Accident Frequencies at the Canister Storage Bldg (CSB)

    SciTech Connect

    POWERS, T.B.

    2000-03-20

    By using simple frequency calculations and fault tree logic, an evaluation of the design basis accident frequencies at the Canister Storage Building has been performed. The following are the design basis accidents: Mechanical damage of MCO; Gaseous release from the MCO; MCO internal hydrogen deflagration; MCO external hydrogen deflagration; Thermal runaway reactions inside the MCO; and Violation of design temperature criteria.

  3. A first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system (Iceland): from the volcanic crisis in 2014 towards a tool for hazard assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barsotti, Sara; Tumi Gudmundsson, Magnús; Jónsdottir, Kristín; Vogfjörd, Kristín; Larsen, Gudrun; Oddsson, Björn

    2015-04-01

    Bárdarbunga volcano is part of a large volcanic system that had its last confirmed eruption before the present unrest in 1910. This system is partially covered by ice within the Vatnajökull glacier and it extends further to the NNE as well as to SW. Based on historical data, its eruptive activity has been predominantly characterized by explosive eruptions, originating beneath the glacier, and important effusive eruptions in the ice-free part of the system itself. The largest explosive eruptions took place on the southern side of the fissure system in AD 1477 producing about 10 km3 of tephra. Due to the extension and location of this volcanic system, the range of potential eruptive scenarios and associated hazards is quite wide. Indeed, it includes: inundation, due to glacial outburst; tephra fallout, due to ash-rich plume generated by magma-water interaction; abundant volcanic gas release; and lava flows. Most importantly these phenomena are not mutually exclusive and might happen simultaneously, creating the premise for a wide spatial and temporal impact. During the ongoing volcanic crisis at Bárdarbunga, which started on 16 August, 2014, the Icelandic Meteorological Office, together with the University of Iceland and Icelandic Civil Protection started a common effort of drawing, day-by-day, the potential evolution of the ongoing rifting event and, based on the newest data from the monitoring networks, updated and more refined scenarios have been identified. Indeed, this volcanic crisis created the occasion for pushing forward the creation of the first Event-tree for the Bárðarbunga volcanic system. We adopted the approach suggested by Newhall and Pallister (2014) and a preliminary ET made of nine nodes has been constructed. After the two initial nodes (restless and genesis) the ET continues with the identification of the location of aperture of future eruptive vents. Due to the complex structure of the system and historical eruptions, this third node

  4. The inference of gene trees with species trees.

    PubMed

    Szöllősi, Gergely J; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree-species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree-species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution.

  5. Probabilistic Hazard for Seismically-Induced Tsunamis in Complex Tectonic Contexts: Event Tree Approach to Seismic Source Variability and Practical Feasibility of Inundation Maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorito, Stefano; Selva, Jacopo; Basili, Roberto; Romano, Fabrizio; Tiberti, Mara Monica; Piatanesi, Alessio

    2014-05-01

    Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis (PTHA) rests on computationally demanding numerical simulations of the tsunami generation and propagation up to the inundated coastline. We here focus on tsunamis generated by the co-seismic sea floor displacement, which constitute the vast majority of the observed tsunami events, i.e. on Seismic PTHA (SPTHA). For incorporating the full expected seismic source variability, aiming at a complete SPTHA, a very large number of numerical tsunami scenarios is typically needed, especially for complex tectonic contexts, where SPTHA is not dominated by large subduction earthquakes only. Here, we propose a viable approach for reducing the number of simulations for a given set of input earthquakes representing the modelled aleatory uncertainties of the seismic rupture parameters. Our approach is based on a preliminary analysis of the SPTHA of maximum offshore wave height (HMax) at a given target location, and assuming computationally cheap linear propagation. We start with defining an operational SPTHA framework in which we then introduce a simplified Event Tree approach, combined with a Green's functions approach, for obtaining a first controlled sampling and reduction of the effective source parameter space size. We then apply a two-stage filtering procedure to the 'linear' SPTHA results. The first filter identifies and discards all the sources producing a negligible contribution at the target location, for example the smallest earthquakes or those directing most of tsunami energy elsewhere. The second filter performs a cluster analysis aimed at selecting groups of source parameters producing comparable HMax profiles for each earthquake magnitude at the given test site. We thus select a limited set of sources that is subsequently used for calculating 'nonlinear' probabilistic inundation maps at the target location. We find that the optimal subset of simulations needed for inundation calculations can be obtained basing on just the

  6. Bayesian Event Tree (BET) approach to Near Real Time monitoring on active volcanoes within ASI-SRV project: Mt. Etna test case

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silvestri, Malvina; Musacchio, Massimo; Taroni, Matteo; Fabrizia Buongiorno, Maria; Dini, Luigi

    2010-05-01

    ASI-Sistema Rischio Vulcanico (SRV) project is devoted to the development of a pre-operative integrated system managing different Earth Observation (EO) and Non EO data to respond to specific needs of the Italian Civil Protection Department (DPC) and improve the monitoring of Italian active volcanoes. The project provides the capability to maintain a repository where the acquired data are stored and generates products offering a support to risk managers during the different volcanic activity phases. All the products are obtained considering technical choices and developments of ASI-SRV based on flexible and scalable modules which take into account also the new coming space sensors and new processing algorithms. An important step of the project development regards the technical and scientific feasibility of the provided products that depends on the data availability, accuracy algorithms and models used in the processing and of course the possibility to validate the results by means of comparison with non-EO independent measurements. The multivariate analysis allows to perform multiple comparisons in order to have a first idea of which variables are largely preferentially or rather rarely distributed, also considering their geographic localization. The "Volcanic Parameter" cross correlation will allow to define the weight of each product that will be used as input in the BET-EF model (Bayesian Event Tree model for eruption forecasting ) which is an already developed algorithm for the eruption model, and will be adapt, as it is, to the ASI-SRV needs. The BET model represents a flexible tool to provide probabilities of any specific event at which we are interested in, by merging any kind of available and relevant information, such as theoretical models, a priori beliefs, monitoring measures, and past data. It is mainly based on a Bayesian procedure and it relies on the fuzzy approach to manage monitoring data. The method deals with short- and long-term forecasting

  7. The Inference of Gene Trees with Species Trees

    PubMed Central

    Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent; Boussau, Bastien

    2015-01-01

    This article reviews the various models that have been used to describe the relationships between gene trees and species trees. Molecular phylogeny has focused mainly on improving models for the reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alignments. Yet, most phylogeneticists seek to reveal the history of species. Although the histories of genes and species are tightly linked, they are seldom identical, because genes duplicate, are lost or horizontally transferred, and because alleles can coexist in populations for periods that may span several speciation events. Building models describing the relationship between gene and species trees can thus improve the reconstruction of gene trees when a species tree is known, and vice versa. Several approaches have been proposed to solve the problem in one direction or the other, but in general neither gene trees nor species trees are known. Only a few studies have attempted to jointly infer gene trees and species trees. These models account for gene duplication and loss, transfer or incomplete lineage sorting. Some of them consider several types of events together, but none exists currently that considers the full repertoire of processes that generate gene trees along the species tree. Simulations as well as empirical studies on genomic data show that combining gene tree–species tree models with models of sequence evolution improves gene tree reconstruction. In turn, these better gene trees provide a more reliable basis for studying genome evolution or reconstructing ancestral chromosomes and ancestral gene sequences. We predict that gene tree–species tree methods that can deal with genomic data sets will be instrumental to advancing our understanding of genomic evolution. PMID:25070970

  8. Cross-analysis of hazmat road accidents using multiple databases.

    PubMed

    Trépanier, Martin; Leroux, Marie-Hélène; de Marcellis-Warin, Nathalie

    2009-11-01

    Road selection for hazardous materials transportation relies heavily on risk analysis. With risk being generally expressed as a product of the probability of occurrence and the expected consequence, one will understand that risk analysis is data intensive. However, various authors have noticed the lack of statistical reliability of hazmat accident databases due to the systematic underreporting of such events. Also, official accident databases alone are not always providing all the information required (economical impact, road conditions, etc.). In this paper, we attempt to integrate many data sources to analyze hazmat accidents in the province of Quebec, Canada. Databases on dangerous goods accidents, road accidents and work accidents were cross-analyzed. Results show that accidents can hardly be matched and that these databases suffer from underreporting. Police records seem to have better coverage than official records maintained by hazmat authorities. Serious accidents are missing from government's official databases (some involving deaths or major spills) even though their declaration is mandatory.

  9. Cross-analysis of hazmat road accidents using multiple databases.

    PubMed

    Trépanier, Martin; Leroux, Marie-Hélène; de Marcellis-Warin, Nathalie

    2009-11-01

    Road selection for hazardous materials transportation relies heavily on risk analysis. With risk being generally expressed as a product of the probability of occurrence and the expected consequence, one will understand that risk analysis is data intensive. However, various authors have noticed the lack of statistical reliability of hazmat accident databases due to the systematic underreporting of such events. Also, official accident databases alone are not always providing all the information required (economical impact, road conditions, etc.). In this paper, we attempt to integrate many data sources to analyze hazmat accidents in the province of Quebec, Canada. Databases on dangerous goods accidents, road accidents and work accidents were cross-analyzed. Results show that accidents can hardly be matched and that these databases suffer from underreporting. Police records seem to have better coverage than official records maintained by hazmat authorities. Serious accidents are missing from government's official databases (some involving deaths or major spills) even though their declaration is mandatory. PMID:19819367

  10. Fault-Tree Compiler Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.

    1992-01-01

    FTC, Fault-Tree Compiler program, is reliability-analysis software tool used to calculate probability of top event of fault tree. Five different types of gates allowed in fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N. High-level input language of FTC easy to understand and use. Program supports hierarchical fault-tree-definition feature simplifying process of description of tree and reduces execution time. Solution technique implemented in FORTRAN, and user interface in Pascal. Written to run on DEC VAX computer operating under VMS operating system.

  11. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  12. Transport aircraft accident dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cominsky, A.

    1982-01-01

    A study was carried out of 112 impact survivable jet transport aircraft accidents (world wide) of 27,700 kg (60,000 lb.) aircraft and up extending over the last 20 years. This study centered on the effect of impact and the follow-on events on aircraft structures and was confined to the approach, landing and takeoff segments of the flight. The significant characteristics, frequency of occurrence and the effect on the occupants of the above data base were studied and categorized with a view to establishing typical impact scenarios for use as a basis of verifying the effectiveness of potential safety concepts. Studies were also carried out of related subjects such as: (1) assessment of advanced materials; (2) human tolerance to impact; (3) merit functions for safety concepts; and (4) impact analysis and test methods.

  13. World commercial aircraft accidents. Second edition, 1946--1992

    SciTech Connect

    Kimura, C.Y.

    1993-01-01

    This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. Included are: accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft, world commercial turboprop aircraft, world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines and world commercial pistonprop aircraft with two or three engines from 1946 to 1992. Each accident is presented with information in the following categories: date of the accident, airline and its flight numbers, type of flight, type of aircraft, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident, and finally references used. The sixth chapter presents a summary of the world commercial aircraft accidents by major aircraft class (e.g. jet, turboprop, and pistonprop) and by flight phase. The seventh chapter presents several special studies including a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities, a list of collision accidents involving commercial aircrafts, and a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, and hijackings.

  14. A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.

    1993-09-01

    Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable of propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.

  15. Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of climatic events and the eruption of the Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru, 1600 AD)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Génova, M.

    2012-04-01

    The study of pointer years of numerous tree-ring chronologies of the central Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama) could provide complementary information about climate variability over the last 405 yr. In total, 64 pointer years have been identified: 30 negative (representing minimum growths) and 34 positive (representing maximum growths), the most significant of these being 1601, 1963 and 1996 for the negative ones, and 1734 and 1737 for the positive ones. Given that summer precipitation was found to be the most limiting factor for the growth of Pinus in the Sierra de Guadarrama in the second half of the 20th century, it is also an explanatory factor in almost 50% of the extreme growths. Furthermore, these pointer years and intervals are not evenly distributed throughout time. Both in the first half of the 17th and in the second half of 20th, they were more frequent and more extreme and these periods are the most notable for the frequency of negative pointer years in Central Spain. The interval 1600-1602 is of special significance, being one of the most unfavourable for tree growth in the centre of Spain, with 1601 representing the minimum index in the regional chronology. We infer that this special minimum annual increase was the effect of the eruption of Huaynaputina, which occurred in Peru at the beginning of 1600 AD. This is the first time that the effects of this eruption in the tree-ring records of Southern Europe have been demonstrated.

  16. Designing an Experimental "Accident"

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Picker, Lester

    1974-01-01

    Describes an experimental "accident" that resulted in much student learning, seeks help in the identification of nematodes, and suggests biology teachers introduce similar accidents into their teaching to stimulate student interest. (PEB)

  17. Tree Lifecycle.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nature Study, 1998

    1998-01-01

    Presents a Project Learning Tree (PLT) activity that has students investigate and compare the lifecycle of a tree to other living things and the tree's role in the ecosystem. Includes background material as well as step-by-step instructions, variation and enrichment ideas, assessment opportunities, and student worksheets. (SJR)

  18. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1. Volume 2, Part 1C: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events for plant operational State 5 during a refueling outage, Main report (Sections 11--14)

    SciTech Connect

    Whitehead, D.; Darby, J.; Yakle, J.

    1994-06-01

    This document contains the accident sequence analysis of internally initiated events for Grand Gulf, Unit 1 as it operates in the Low Power and Shutdown Plant Operational State 5 during a refueling outage. The report documents the methodology used during the analysis, describes the results from the application of the methodology, and compares the results with the results from two full power analyses performed on Grand Gulf.

  19. Relating phylogenetic trees to transmission trees of infectious disease outbreaks.

    PubMed

    Ypma, Rolf J F; van Ballegooijen, W Marijn; Wallinga, Jacco

    2013-11-01

    Transmission events are the fundamental building blocks of the dynamics of any infectious disease. Much about the epidemiology of a disease can be learned when these individual transmission events are known or can be estimated. Such estimations are difficult and generally feasible only when detailed epidemiological data are available. The genealogy estimated from genetic sequences of sampled pathogens is another rich source of information on transmission history. Optimal inference of transmission events calls for the combination of genetic data and epidemiological data into one joint analysis. A key difficulty is that the transmission tree, which describes the transmission events between infected hosts, differs from the phylogenetic tree, which describes the ancestral relationships between pathogens sampled from these hosts. The trees differ both in timing of the internal nodes and in topology. These differences become more pronounced when a higher fraction of infected hosts is sampled. We show how the phylogenetic tree of sampled pathogens is related to the transmission tree of an outbreak of an infectious disease, by the within-host dynamics of pathogens. We provide a statistical framework to infer key epidemiological and mutational parameters by simultaneously estimating the phylogenetic tree and the transmission tree. We test the approach using simulations and illustrate its use on an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. The approach unifies existing methods in the emerging field of phylodynamics with transmission tree reconstruction methods that are used in infectious disease epidemiology.

  20. Relationship between the 1997/98 El Niño and 1999/2001 La Niña events and oil palm tree production in Tumaco, Southwestern Colombia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cadena, M. C.; Devis-Morales, A.; Pabón, J. D.; Málikov, I.; Reyna-Moreno, J. A.; Ortiz, J. R.

    2006-02-01

    Although the relationship between ENSO events and oceanographic and meteorological conditions of Southwestern Colombia is well-known, very little work has been done to assess the related socio-economic impacts. This is the first effort made to determine the effect of such events on local climate and the impact of this variability on oil palm tree (Elaeis guineensis) production in the Tumaco municipality, which is located on Colombia's Pacific coast. First, we studied the correlation between sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the various El Niño regions and those observed off Tumaco. Next, we scrutinized the ENSO impact on regional climatic indicators, e.g. active solar radiation (hrs/day), air temperature (°C), and rain (mm). Finally, we analyzed the relationship between ENSO, Tumaco climate variability, and oil palm production (tons/hectare-month). Hours of active radiation increased (decreased) under El Niño (La Niña) conditions, as did average monthly precipitation rates and air temperature. ENSO-related climatic variability also had an important effect on the different developmental stages of the oil palm tree, thereby affecting its production. The worst scenario was found during La Niña, when reduced intensity of the rainy season (second semester) caused severe droughts in the region.

  1. Extreme pointer years in tree-ring records of Central Spain as evidence of volcanic eruptions (Huaynaputina, Peru, 1600 AC) and other climatic events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Génova, M.

    2011-12-01

    The study of pointer years based on the numerous tree-ring chronologies of the central Iberian Peninsula (Sierra de Guadarrama) could provide complementary information about climate variability over the last 405 years. In total, 64 pointer years have been identified: 30 negative (representing minimum growths) and 34 positive (representing maximum growths), the most significant of these being 1601, 1963 and 1996 for the negative ones, and 1734 and 1737 for the positive ones. Given that summer precipitation has been the most incident factor in the general variability of growth of Pinus in the Sierra de Guadarrama in the second half of the 20th century, it is also an explanatory factor in almost 50% of the extreme growths. Furthermore, the data show that there has been variability over the centuries in the distribution of the frequencies of pointer years and intervals. The first half of the 17th century, together with the second half of the 20th century, constitute the two most notable periods for the frequency of negative pointer years in Central Spain. This variability was sufficiently notable to affirm that, both in the 17th and 20th centuries, the macroclimatic anomalies that affected growth were more frequent and more extreme than in the other two centuries analysed. The period 1600-1602 is of special significance, being one of the most unfavourable for tree growth in the centre of Spain, with 1601 representing the minimum index in the regional chronology. It is possible to infer that these phenomena are the effect of the eruption of Huaynaputina, which occurred in Peru at the beginning of 1600 AD. This is the first time that the effects of this eruption in the tree-ring records of central and southern Europe have been demonstrated.

  2. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep.

    PubMed

    Sagberg, F

    1999-11-01

    About 29600 Norwegian accident-involved drivers received a questionnaire about the last accident reported to their insurance company. About 9200 drivers (31%) returned the questionnaire. The questionnaire contained questions about sleep or fatigue as contributing factors to the accident. In addition, the drivers reported whether or not they had fallen asleep some time whilst driving. and what the consequences had been. Sleep or drowsiness was a contributing factor in 3.9% of all accidents, as reported by drivers who were at fault for the accident. This factor was strongly over-represented in night-time accidents (18.6%), in running-off-the-road accidents (8.3%), accidents after driving more than 150 km on one trip (8.1%), and personal injury accidents (7.3%). A logistic regression analysis showed that the following additional factors made significant and independent contributions to increasing the odds of sleep involvement in an accident: dry road, high speed limit, driving one's own car, not driving the car daily, high education, and few years of driving experience. More male than female drivers were involved in sleep-related accidents, but this seems largely to be explained by males driving relatively more than females on roads with high speed limits. A total of 10% of male drivers and 4% of females reported to have fallen asleep while driving during the last 12 months. A total of 4% of these events resulted in an accident. The most frequent consequence of falling asleep--amounting to more than 40% of the reported incidents--was crossing of the right edge-line before awaking, whereas crossing of the centreline was reported by 16%. Drivers' lack of awareness of important precursors of falling asleep--like highway hypnosis, driving without awareness, and similar phenomena--as well as a reluctance to discontinue driving despite feeling tired are pointed out as likely contributors to sleep-related accidents. More knowledge about the drivers' experiences immediately

  3. Evaluation of Accident Frequencies at the Canister Storage Bldg (CSB)

    SciTech Connect

    LIU, Y.J.

    1999-09-02

    By using the fault tree logic, an evaluation of the design basis accident frequencies at the Canister Storage Building has been performed. The evaluation demonstrates that due to low frequency of occurrences, the following design basis accidents are considered not credible (annual frequency of less than 10{sup -6}): Rearrangement of multidster overpack (MCO) internals; Gaseous release from the MCO; MCO internal hydrogen explosion; MCO external hydrogen explosion; Thermal runaway reactions inside the MCO; and Violation of design temperature criteria.

  4. Evaluation of accident frequencies at the canister storage building

    SciTech Connect

    LIU, Y.J.

    1999-05-13

    By using the fault tree logic, an evaluation of the design basis accident frequencies at the Canister Storage Building has been performed. The evaluation demonstrates that due to low frequency of occurrences, the following design basis accidents are considered not credible (annual frequency of less than 10{sup -6}): Rearrangement of multi-canister overpack (MCO) internals; Gaseous release from the MCO; MCO internal hydrogen explosion; MCO external hydrogen explosion; Thermal runaway reactions inside the MCO; and Violation of design temperature criteria.

  5. Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2006-01-01

    System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

  6. TMI-2 accident: core heat-up analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ardron, K.H.; Cain, D.G.

    1981-01-01

    This report summarizes NSAC study of reactor core thermal conditions during the accident at Three Mile Island, Unit 2. The study focuses primarily on the time period from core uncovery (approximately 113 minutes after turbine trip) through the initiation of sustained high pressure injection (after 202 minutes). The transient analysis is based upon established sequences of events; plant data; post-accident measurements; interpretation or indirect use of instrument responses to accident conditions.

  7. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations, Appendices E (Sections E.1--E.8). Volume 2, Part 3A

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.

    1994-06-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The objective of this report is to document the approach utilized in the Surry plant and discuss the results obtained. A parallel report for the Grand Gulf plant is prepared by SNL. This study shows that the core-damage frequency during mid-loop operation at the Surry plant is comparable to that of power operation. The authors recognize that there is very large uncertainty in the human error probabilities in this study. This study identified that only a few procedures are available for mitigating accidents that may occur during shutdown. Procedures written specifically for shutdown accidents would be useful.

  8. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Analysis of core damage frequency from internal events during mid-loop operations, Appendices A--D. Volume 2, Part 2

    SciTech Connect

    Chu, T.L.; Musicki, Z.; Kohut, P.

    1994-06-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the Potential risks during low Power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the Plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The objective of this report is to document the approach utilized in the Surry plant and discuss the results obtained. A parallel report for the Grand Gulf plant is prepared by SNL. This study shows that the core-damage frequency during mid-loop operation at the Surry plant is comparable to that of power operation. We recognize that there is very large uncertainty in the human error probabilities in this study. This study identified that only a few procedures are available for mitigating accidents that may occur during shutdown. Procedures written specifically for shutdown accidents would be useful. This document, Volume 2, Pt. 2 provides appendices A through D of this report.

  9. Environmental Safety and the Prevention of Childhood Accidents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brink, Satya

    Of 25 western countries under consideration in 1975, Canada had the worst accident record for female children and the second worst for male children. In response to this problem, the present report assembles data to present a clearer picture of the extent of the problem and begins an analysis of potential accident events as a preliminary step to…

  10. Parental Bereavement after Suicide and Accident: A Comparative Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Seguin, Monique; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Compares differences in the bereavement process for 30 survivors of suicide versus 30 survivors of car accidents. Indicates suicide survivors were more depressed than accident survivors at the first measure but not at the second measure. Survivors of suicide experienced greater feelings of shame and had experienced more life events after the death…

  11. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    SciTech Connect

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  12. Tree Amigos.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Center for Environmental Study, Grand Rapids, MI.

    Tree Amigos is a special cross-cultural program that uses trees as a common bond to bring the people of the Americas together in unique partnerships to preserve and protect the shared global environment. It is a tangible program that embodies the philosophy that individuals, acting together, can make a difference. This resource book contains…

  13. Talking Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tolman, Marvin

    2005-01-01

    Students love outdoor activities and will love them even more when they build confidence in their tree identification and measurement skills. Through these activities, students will learn to identify the major characteristics of trees and discover how the pace--a nonstandard measuring unit--can be used to estimate not only distances but also the…

  14. Assessment of CRBR core disruptive accident energetics

    SciTech Connect

    Theofanous, T.G.; Bell, C.R.

    1984-03-01

    The results of an independent assessment of core disruptive accident energetics for the Clinch River Breeder Reactor are presented in this document. This assessment was performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission under the direction of the CRBR Program Office within the Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It considered in detail the accident behavior for three accident initiators that are representative of three different classes of events; unprotected loss of flow, unprotected reactivity insertion, and protected loss of heat sink. The primary system's energetics accommodation capability was realistically, yet conservatively, determined in terms of core events. This accommodation capability was found to be equivalent to an isentropic work potential for expansion to one atmosphere of 2550 MJ or a ramp rate of about 200 $/s applied to a classical two-phase disassembly.

  15. The fault-tree compiler

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Martensen, Anna L.; Butler, Ricky W.

    1987-01-01

    The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, and M OF N gates. The high level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precise (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) to the five digits in the answer. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Corporation VAX with the VMS operation system.

  16. Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castro, Edgar Oscar

    2013-01-01

    A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…

  17. Dose estimates in a loss of lead shielding truck accident.

    SciTech Connect

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John

    2009-08-01

    The radiological transportation risk & consequence program, RADTRAN, has recently added an updated loss of lead shielding (LOS) model to it most recent version, RADTRAN 6.0. The LOS model was used to determine dose estimates to first-responders during a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident. Results varied according to the following: type of accident scenario, percent of lead slump, distance to shipment, and time spent in the area. This document presents a method of creating dose estimates for first-responders using RADTRAN with potential accident scenarios. This may be of particular interest in the event of high speed accidents or fires involving cask punctures.

  18. ANS severe accident program overview & planning document

    SciTech Connect

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.

    1995-09-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) severe accident document was developed to provide a concise and coherent mechanism for presenting the ANS SAP goals, a strategy satisfying these goals, a succinct summary of the work done to date, and what needs to be done in the future to ensure timely licensability. Guidance was received from various bodies [viz., panel members of the ANS severe accident workshop and safety review committee, Department of Energy (DOE) orders, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements for ALWRs and advanced reactors, ACRS comments, world-wide trends] were utilized to set up the ANS-relevant SAS goals and strategy. An in-containment worker protection goal was also set up to account for the routine experimenters and other workers within containment. The strategy for achieving the goals is centered upon closing the severe accident issues that have the potential for becoming certification issues when assessed against realistic bounding events. Realistic bounding events are defined as events with an occurrency frequency greater than 10{sup {minus}6}/y. Currently, based upon the level-1 probabilistic risk assessment studies, the realistic bounding events for application for issue closure are flow blockage of fuel element coolant channels, and rapid depressurization-related accidents.

  19. Civil aircraft accident investigation.

    PubMed

    Haines, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    This talk reviews some historic aircraft accidents and some more recent. It reflects on the division of accident causes, considering mechanical failures and aircrew failures, and on aircrew training. Investigation results may lead to improved aircraft design, and to appropriate crew training. PMID:24057309

  20. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  1. Farm accidents in children.

    PubMed Central

    Cameron, D.; Bishop, C.; Sibert, J. R.

    1992-01-01

    OBJECTIVE--To examine the problem of accidental injury to children on farms. DESIGN--Prospective county based study of children presenting to accident and emergency departments over 12 months with injuries sustained in a farm setting and nationwide review of fatal childhood farm accidents over the four years April 1986 to March 1990. SETTING--Accident and emergency departments in Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, and Llanelli and fatal accidents in England, Scotland, and Wales notified to the Health and Safety Executive register. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death or injury after farm related accidents. RESULTS--65 accidents were recorded, including 18 fractures. Nine accidents necessitated admission to hospital for a mean of two (range one to four) days. 13 incidents were related to tractors and other machinery; 24 were due to falls. None of these incidents were reported under the statutory notification scheme. 33 deaths were notified, eight related to tractors and allied machinery and 10 related to falling objects. CONCLUSIONS--Although safety is improving, the farm remains a dangerous environment for children. Enforcement of existing safety legislation with significant penalties and targeting of safety education will help reduce accident rates further. PMID:1638192

  2. Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

    PubMed

    Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

    2010-02-01

    Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction. PMID:20099174

  3. Accidents related to manure in eastern Switzerland: an epidemiological study.

    PubMed Central

    Knoblauch, A; Steiner, B; Bachmann, S; Trachsler, G; Burgheer, R; Osterwalder, J

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Liquid manure systems and manure pits are major hazards in the agricultural workplace. The incidence of accidents related to manure is unknown. The objective of this study was to survey the liquid manure facilities of farms in eastern Switzerland and find the incidence of accidents related to manure in the region. METHODS: Retrospective cohort study and cross sectional survey of 210 farms in eastern Switzerland. RESULTS: The incidence of accidents related to manure was found to be 10.4/1000 person-years. Most accidents were categorised as minor--that is, had a benign outcome for the people involved or involved animals only. One in 33 of the farms surveyed was the scene of an accident related to manure each year. CONCLUSIONS: The medical literature on accidents related to manure mostly reports accidents with catastrophic outcomes. This study shows that this type of accident is only the tip of the iceberg. Most of the accidents reported in this study belong to a category that has hitherto been un-noticed and unreported. The term "accident related to manure" covers a broad range of events, and those resulting in serious human illness or death represent only a small part of this spectrum. A wide variety of liquid manure systems were found on the farms surveyed. Very few liquid manure facilities conformed to published safety standards. PMID:8882112

  4. The medical investigation of airship accidents.

    PubMed

    Stahl, C J; McMeekin, R R; Ruehle, C J; Canik, J J

    1988-07-01

    A review of the autopsy reports for 18 of 21 victims in 3 of the 4 nonrigid Navy airship accidents during the period 1955 to 1966 revealed that the patterns of injury, complicated by postcrash entrapment, immersion, or fire, are similar to the injuries observed in the low-speed, low-altitude crashes of rigid airships and of light aircraft. With the renewed interest in the development of airships for military purposes, there is a need for improved design related to crashworthiness and to aircrew habitability, safety, restraint, and egress in order to enhance the chance for survival in the event of an accident. PMID:3171506

  5. Structural aspects of the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Murray, R.C.; Cummings, G.E.

    1988-09-02

    On April 26, 1986 the world's worst nuclear power plant accident occurred at the Unit 4 of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station in the USSR. This paper presents a discussion of the design of the Chernobyl Power Plant, the sequence of events that led to the accident and the damage caused by the resulting explosion. The structural design features that contributed to the accident and resulting damage will be highlighted. Photographs and sketches obtained from various worldwide news agencies will be shown to try and gain a perspective of the extent of the damage. The aftermath, clean-up, and current situation will be discussed and the important lessons learned for the structural engineer will be presented. 15 refs., 10 figs.

  6. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  7. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  8. Safety Is No Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christiansen, Monty L.

    1985-01-01

    Liability suits involving accidents in park and recreation areas are expensive and intangible costs are incalculable. Risk management practices related to park planning, personnel, and administrative practices are discussed. (MT)

  9. Accident management information needs

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R. )

    1990-04-01

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs.

  10. Audubon Tree Study Program.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Audubon Society, New York, NY.

    Included are an illustrated student reader, "The Story of Trees," a leaders' guide, and a large tree chart with 37 colored pictures. The student reader reviews several aspects of trees: a definition of a tree; where and how trees grow; flowers, pollination and seed production; how trees make their food; how to recognize trees; seasonal changes;…

  11. Visualizing phylogenetic trees using TreeView.

    PubMed

    Page, Roderic D M

    2002-08-01

    TreeView provides a simple way to view the phylogenetic trees produced by a range of programs, such as PAUP*, PHYLIP, TREE-PUZZLE, and ClustalX. While some phylogenetic programs (such as the Macintosh version of PAUP*) have excellent tree printing facilities, many programs do not have the ability to generate publication quality trees. TreeView addresses this need. The program can read and write a range of tree file formats, display trees in a variety of styles, print trees, and save the tree as a graphic file. Protocols in this unit cover both displaying and printing a tree. Support protocols describe how to download and install TreeView, and how to display bootstrap values in trees generated by ClustalX and PAUP*. PMID:18792942

  12. Risk and resilience factors of persons exposed to accidents

    PubMed Central

    HERTA, DANA – CRISTINA; BRÎNDAS, PAULA; TRIFU, RALUCA; COZMAN, DOINA

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims Resilience encompasses factors promoting effective functioning in the context of adversity. Data regarding resilience in the wake of accidental trauma is still scarce. The aim of the current study is to comparatively assess adaptive, life – promoting factors in persons exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. persons exposed to other types of accidents, and to identify psychological factors of resilience and vulnerability in this context of trauma exposure. Methods We assessed 93 participants exposed to accidents out of 305 eligible patients from the Clinical Rehabilitation Hospital and Cluj County Emergency Hospital. The study used Reasons for Living Inventory (RFL) and Life Events Checklist. Scores were comparatively assessed for RFL items, RFL scale and subscales in participants exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. participants exposed to other life – threatening accidents. Results Participants exposed to MVA and those exposed to other accidents had significantly different scores in 7 RFL items. Scores were high in 4 out of 6 RFL subscales for both samples and in most items comprising these subscales, while in the other 2 subscales and in some items comprising them scores were low. Conclusions Low fear of death, physical suffering and social disapproval emerge as risk factors in persons exposed to life – threatening accidents. Love of life, courage in life and hope for the future are important resilience factors after exposure to various types of life – threatening accidents. Survival and active coping beliefs promote resilience especially after motor vehicle accidents. Coping with uncertainty are more likely to foster resilience after other types of life – threatening accidents. Attachment of the accident victim to family promotes resilience mostly after MVA, while perceived attachment of family members to the victim promotes resilience after other types of accidents. PMID:27152078

  13. Tree harvesting

    SciTech Connect

    Badger, P.C.

    1995-12-31

    Short rotation intensive culture tree plantations have been a major part of biomass energy concepts since the beginning. One aspect receiving less attention than it deserves is harvesting. This article describes an method of harvesting somewhere between agricultural mowing machines and huge feller-bunchers of the pulpwood and lumber industries.

  14. Aspen Trees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Canfield, Elaine

    2002-01-01

    Describes a fifth-grade art activity that offers a new approach to creating pictures of Aspen trees. Explains that the students learned about art concepts, such as line and balance, in this lesson. Discusses the process in detail for creating the pictures. (CMK)

  15. Severe accident approach - final report. Evaluation of design measures for severe accident prevention and consequence mitigation.

    SciTech Connect

    Tentner, A. M.; Parma, E.; Wei, T.; Wigeland, R.; Nuclear Engineering Division; SNL; INL

    2010-03-01

    An important goal of the US DOE reactor development program is to conceptualize advanced safety design features for a demonstration Sodium Fast Reactor (SFR). The treatment of severe accidents is one of the key safety issues in the design approach for advanced SFR systems. It is necessary to develop an in-depth understanding of the risk of severe accidents for the SFR so that appropriate risk management measures can be implemented early in the design process. This report presents the results of a review of the SFR features and phenomena that directly influence the sequence of events during a postulated severe accident. The report identifies the safety features used or proposed for various SFR designs in the US and worldwide for the prevention and/or mitigation of Core Disruptive Accidents (CDA). The report provides an overview of the current SFR safety approaches and the role of severe accidents. Mutual understanding of these design features and safety approaches is necessary for future collaborations between the US and its international partners as part of the GEN IV program. The report also reviews the basis for an integrated safety approach to severe accidents for the SFR that reflects the safety design knowledge gained in the US during the Advanced Liquid Metal Reactor (ALMR) and Integral Fast Reactor (IFR) programs. This approach relies on inherent reactor and plant safety performance characteristics to provide additional safety margins. The goal of this approach is to prevent development of severe accident conditions, even in the event of initiators with safety system failures previously recognized to lead directly to reactor damage.

  16. Statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Ott, K.O.; Marchaterre, J.F.

    1980-01-01

    In a recently published paper (Campbell and Ott, 1979), a general methodology was proposed for the statistical evaluation of design-error related accidents. The evaluation aims at an estimate of the combined residual frequency of yet unknown types of accidents lurking in a certain technological system. Here, the original methodology is extended, as to apply to a variety of systems that evolves during the development of large-scale technologies. A special categorization of incidents and accidents is introduced to define the events that should be jointly analyzed. The resulting formalism is applied to the development of the nuclear power reactor technology, considering serious accidents that involve in the accident-progression a particular design inadequacy.

  17. Unimodular trees versus Einstein trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Álvarez, Enrique; González-Martín, Sergio; Martín, Carmelo P.

    2016-10-01

    The maximally helicity violating tree-level scattering amplitudes involving three, four or five gravitons are worked out in Unimodular Gravity. They are found to coincide with the corresponding amplitudes in General Relativity. This a remarkable result, insofar as both the propagators and the vertices are quite different in the two theories.

  18. Generic physical protection logic trees

    SciTech Connect

    Paulus, W.K.

    1981-10-01

    Generic physical protection logic trees, designed for application to nuclear facilities and materials, are presented together with a method of qualitative evaluation of the trees for design and analysis of physical protection systems. One or more defense zones are defined where adversaries interact with the physical protection system. Logic trees that are needed to describe the possible scenarios within a defense zone are selected. Elements of a postulated or existing physical protection system are tagged to the primary events of the logic tree. The likelihood of adversary success in overcoming these elements is evaluated on a binary, yes/no basis. The effect of these evaluations is propagated through the logic of each tree to determine whether the adversary is likely to accomplish the end event of the tree. The physical protection system must be highly likely to overcome the adversary before he accomplishes his objective. The evaluation must be conducted for all significant states of the site. Deficiencies uncovered become inputs to redesign and further analysis, closing the loop on the design/analysis cycle.

  19. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident. PMID:22951483

  20. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  1. Technical Tree Climbing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jenkins, Peter

    Tree climbing offers a safe, inexpensive adventure sport that can be performed almost anywhere. Using standard procedures practiced in tree surgery or rock climbing, almost any tree can be climbed. Tree climbing provides challenge and adventure as well as a vigorous upper-body workout. Tree Climbers International classifies trees using a system…

  2. How to Calculate the Accident Probability of Dangerous Substance Transport

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuchs, Pavel; Saska, Tomas; Sousek, Radovan; Valis, David

    2012-09-01

    Currently the risk assessment of dangerous substances manipulation and transportation is a frequent topic in scientific groups. It exist many themes from this area, which are discussed at conferences and scientific events. One of these topics is surely the calculation of accident probability of dangerous substance transport. The following paper describes the procedure of the accident probability calculation of dangerous substance road transportation. The next aim of this paper is to show, what uncertainties may be contained in such as calculation procedure. And finally, which parameters should be collected for complex accident risk assessment of dangerous substance road transport.

  3. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  4. Analysing factors related to slipping, stumbling, and falling accidents at work: Application of data mining methods to Finnish occupational accidents and diseases statistics database.

    PubMed

    Nenonen, Noora

    2013-03-01

    The utilisation of data mining methods has become common in many fields. In occupational accident analysis, however, these methods are still rarely exploited. This study applies methods of data mining (decision tree and association rules) to the Finnish national occupational accidents and diseases statistics database to analyse factors related to slipping, stumbling, and falling (SSF) accidents at work from 2006 to 2007. SSF accidents at work constitute a large proportion (22%) of all accidents at work in Finland. In addition, they are more likely to result in longer periods of incapacity for work than other workplace accidents. The most important factor influencing whether or not an accident at work is related to SSF is the specific physical activity of movement. In addition, the risk of SSF accidents at work seems to depend on the occupation and the age of the worker. The results were in line with previous research. Hence the application of data mining methods was considered successful. The results did not reveal anything unexpected though. Nevertheless, because of the capability to illustrate a large dataset and relationships between variables easily, data mining methods were seen as a useful supplementary method in analysing occupational accident data.

  5. Childhood accidents. Three epidemiological studies on the etiology.

    PubMed

    Gustafsson, L H

    1977-01-01

    Three studies on childhood accidents are presented. The aim was to study the importance of different factors regarding the accidents in question. The following factors have then been taken into consideration: the enviromental hazard, the accident proneness, the supervision and the education. Methodologically the investigations were carried out with an epidemiological technique. One is of a descriptive nature and the other two more analytically oriented. The studies are based on two different 1-year-materials consisting of accidents among children recorded in the emergency departments of Ostersund Hospital and the University Hospital in Uppsala. The results indicate that risk factors in the children's physical milieu played an important role in the occurrence of the accidents: clearly identifiable risk factors in the environment could be connected with 52% of the accidents, whereas some deficiency in supervision was noted in 20%. The investigators could identify a number of specific risk factors. Attempts were made to examine how frequency and type of childhood accidents vary with the population structure and social structure in well-defined housing areas, but the results were hard to evaluate because of methodological problems. The results are presented against the background of a detailed discussion on central methodological problems in epidemiological accident research. It is pointed out in particular that epidemiological methods have clear limitations in attempts at studying the low-frequency events that each individual type of accident in fact comprises. It is of great importance that in future research, side by side with the traditional epidemiological methods, other techniques are tested with the aim of obtaining maximal usable information from a detailed study of individual accidents and their backgrounds. PMID:857307

  6. Preliminary analysis of loss-of-coolant accident in Fukushima nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Su'ud, Zaki; Anshari, Rio

    2012-06-06

    Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) especially on Fukushima Nuclear Accident will be discussed in this paper. The Tohoku earthquake triggered the shutdown of nuclear power reactors at Fukushima Nuclear Power station. Though shutdown process has been completely performed, cooling process, at much smaller level than in normal operation, is needed to remove decay heat from the reactor core until the reactor reach cold-shutdown condition. If LOCA happen at this condition, it will cause the increase of reactor fuel and other core temperatures and can lead to reactor core meltdown and exposure of radioactive material to the environment such as in the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear accident case. In this study numerical simulation has been performed to calculate pressure composition, water level and temperature distribution on reactor during this accident. There are two coolant regulating system that operational on reactor unit 1 at this accident, Isolation Condensers (IC) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV) system. Average mass flow of steam to the IC system in this event is 10 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 3,2 hours and fully uncovered in 4,7 hours later. There are two coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 2, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) System and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of coolant that correspond this event is 20 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 73 hours and fully uncovered in 75 hours later. There are three coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 3, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) system, High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of water that correspond this event is 15 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 37 hours and fully uncovered in 40 hours later.

  7. Preliminary analysis of loss-of-coolant accident in Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Su'ud, Zaki; Anshari, Rio

    2012-06-01

    Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) in Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) especially on Fukushima Nuclear Accident will be discussed in this paper. The Tohoku earthquake triggered the shutdown of nuclear power reactors at Fukushima Nuclear Power station. Though shutdown process has been completely performed, cooling process, at much smaller level than in normal operation, is needed to remove decay heat from the reactor core until the reactor reach cold-shutdown condition. If LOCA happen at this condition, it will cause the increase of reactor fuel and other core temperatures and can lead to reactor core meltdown and exposure of radioactive material to the environment such as in the Fukushima Dai Ichi nuclear accident case. In this study numerical simulation has been performed to calculate pressure composition, water level and temperature distribution on reactor during this accident. There are two coolant regulating system that operational on reactor unit 1 at this accident, Isolation Condensers (IC) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV) system. Average mass flow of steam to the IC system in this event is 10 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 3,2 hours and fully uncovered in 4,7 hours later. There are two coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 2, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) System and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of coolant that correspond this event is 20 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 73 hours and fully uncovered in 75 hours later. There are three coolant regulating system at operational on reactor unit 3, Reactor Core Isolation Condenser (RCIC) system, High Pressure Coolant Injection (HPCI) system and Safety Relief Valves (SRV). Average mass flow of water that correspond this event is 15 kg/s and could keep reactor core from uncovered about 37 hours and fully uncovered in 40 hours later.

  8. Tractor accidents in Swedish traffic.

    PubMed

    Pinzke, Stefan; Nilsson, Kerstin; Lundqvist, Peter

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this study is to reach a better understanding of accidents on Swedish roads involving tractors and to suggest ways of preventing them. In an earlier study we analyzed police-reported fatal accidents and accidents that led to physical injuries from 1992 to 2005. During each year of this period, tractors were involved in 128 traffic accidents on average, an average of 7 people were killed, 44 sustained serious injuries, and 143 sustained slight injuries. The number of fatalities in these tractor accidents was about 1.3% of all deaths in traffic accidents in Sweden. Cars were most often involved in the tractor accidents (58%) and 15% were single vehicle accidents. The mean age of the tractor driver involved was 39.8 years and young drivers (15-24 years) were overrepresented (30%). We are now increasing the data collected with the years 2006-2010 in order to study the changes in the number of accidents. Special attention will be given to the younger drivers and to single vehicle accidents. Based on the results we aim to develop suggestions for reducing road accidents, e.g. including measures for making farm vehicles more visible and improvement of the training provided at driving schools. PMID:22317543

  9. The Fukushima accident was preventable.

    PubMed

    Synolakis, Costas; Kânoğlu, Utku

    2015-10-28

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami was probably the fourth largest in the past 100 years and killed over 15 000 people. The magnitude of the design tsunami triggering earthquake affecting this region of Japan had been grossly underestimated, and the tsunami hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP), causing the third most severe accident in an NPP ever. Interestingly, while the Onagawa NPP was also hit by a tsunami of approximately the same height as Dai-ichi, it survived the event 'remarkably undamaged'. We explain what has been referred to as the cascade of engineering and regulatory failures that led to the Fukushima disaster. One, insufficient attention had been given to evidence of large tsunamis inundating the region earlier, to Japanese research suggestive that large earthquakes could occur anywhere along a subduction zone, and to new research on mega-thrusts since Boxing Day 2004. Two, there were unexplainably different design conditions for NPPs at close distances from each other. Three, the hazard analysis to calculate the maximum probable tsunami at Dai-ichi appeared to have had methodological mistakes, which almost nobody experienced in tsunami engineering would have made. Four, there were substantial inadequacies in the Japan nuclear regulatory structure. The Fukushima accident was preventable, if international best practices and standards had been followed, if there had been international reviews, and had common sense prevailed in the interpretation of pre-existing geological and hydrodynamic findings. Formal standards are needed for evaluating the tsunami vulnerability of NPPs, for specific training of engineers and scientists who perform tsunami computations for emergency preparedness or critical facilities, as well as for regulators who review safety studies.

  10. The Fukushima accident was preventable.

    PubMed

    Synolakis, Costas; Kânoğlu, Utku

    2015-10-28

    The 11 March 2011 tsunami was probably the fourth largest in the past 100 years and killed over 15 000 people. The magnitude of the design tsunami triggering earthquake affecting this region of Japan had been grossly underestimated, and the tsunami hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant (NPP), causing the third most severe accident in an NPP ever. Interestingly, while the Onagawa NPP was also hit by a tsunami of approximately the same height as Dai-ichi, it survived the event 'remarkably undamaged'. We explain what has been referred to as the cascade of engineering and regulatory failures that led to the Fukushima disaster. One, insufficient attention had been given to evidence of large tsunamis inundating the region earlier, to Japanese research suggestive that large earthquakes could occur anywhere along a subduction zone, and to new research on mega-thrusts since Boxing Day 2004. Two, there were unexplainably different design conditions for NPPs at close distances from each other. Three, the hazard analysis to calculate the maximum probable tsunami at Dai-ichi appeared to have had methodological mistakes, which almost nobody experienced in tsunami engineering would have made. Four, there were substantial inadequacies in the Japan nuclear regulatory structure. The Fukushima accident was preventable, if international best practices and standards had been followed, if there had been international reviews, and had common sense prevailed in the interpretation of pre-existing geological and hydrodynamic findings. Formal standards are needed for evaluating the tsunami vulnerability of NPPs, for specific training of engineers and scientists who perform tsunami computations for emergency preparedness or critical facilities, as well as for regulators who review safety studies. PMID:26392611

  11. Tree-growth analyses to estimate tree species' drought tolerance.

    PubMed

    Eilmann, Britta; Rigling, Andreas

    2012-02-01

    Climate change is challenging forestry management and practices. Among other things, tree species with the ability to cope with more extreme climate conditions have to be identified. However, while environmental factors may severely limit tree growth or even cause tree death, assessing a tree species' potential for surviving future aggravated environmental conditions is rather demanding. The aim of this study was to find a tree-ring-based method suitable for identifying very drought-tolerant species, particularly potential substitute species for Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Valais. In this inner-Alpine valley, Scots pine used to be the dominating species for dry forests, but today it suffers from high drought-induced mortality. We investigate the growth response of two native tree species, Scots pine and European larch (Larix decidua Mill.), and two non-native species, black pine (Pinus nigra Arnold) and Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. var. menziesii), to drought. This involved analysing how the radial increment of these species responded to increasing water shortage (abandonment of irrigation) and to increasingly frequent drought years. Black pine and Douglas fir are able to cope with drought better than Scots pine and larch, as they show relatively high radial growth even after irrigation has been stopped and a plastic growth response to drought years. European larch does not seem to be able to cope with these dry conditions as it lacks the ability to recover from drought years. The analysis of trees' short-term response to extreme climate events seems to be the most promising and suitable method for detecting how tolerant a tree species is towards drought. However, combining all the methods used in this study provides a complete picture of how water shortage could limit species.

  12. [Skateboard and rollerskate accidents].

    PubMed

    Lohmann, M; Petersen, A O; Pedersen, O D

    1990-05-28

    The increasing popularity of skateboards and rollerskates has resulted in an increased number of contacts with the casualty department in Denmark after accidents. As part of the Danish share in the EHLASS project (European Home and Leisure Surveillance System), 120,000 consecutive contacts with the casualty departments were reviewed. Out of these 516 were due to accidents with skateboards and rollerskates (181/335). A total of 194 of these injuries (38%) were fractures and 80% of these were in the upper limbs. Twenty fractures required reposition under general anaesthesia and two required osteosynthesis. Nine patients were admitted for observation for concussion. One patient had sustained rupture of the spleen and splenectomy was necessary. A total of 44 patients were admitted. None of the 516 patients had employed protective equipment on the injured region. Considerable reduction in the number of injuries could probably be produced by employment of suitable protective equipment.

  13. Farm accidents in children.

    PubMed

    Cogbill, T H; Busch, H M; Stiers, G R

    1985-10-01

    During a 6 1/2 year period, 105 children were admitted to the hospital as the result of trauma that occurred on farms. The mechanism of injury was animal related in 42 (40%), tractor or wagon accident in 28 (26%), farm machinery in 21 (20%), fall from farm building in six (6%), and miscellaneous in eight (8%). Injury Severity Score was calculated for each patient. An Injury Severity Score of greater than or equal to 25 was determined for 11 children (11%). Life-threatening injuries, therefore, are frequently the result of childhood activities that take place in agricultural environments. The most common injuries were orthopedic, neurologic, thoracoabdominal, and maxillofacial. There was one death in the series, and only one survivor sustained major long-term disability. Such injuries are managed with optimal outcome in a regional trauma center. Educational programs with an emphasis on prevention and safety measures may reduce the incidence of farm accidents. PMID:4047799

  14. The Tree Worker's Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smithyman, S. J.

    This manual is designed to prepare students for entry-level positions as tree care professionals. Addressed in the individual chapters of the guide are the following topics: the tree service industry; clothing, eqiupment, and tools; tree workers; basic tree anatomy; techniques of pruning; procedures for climbing and working in the tree; aerial…

  15. Accident Flying Squad

    PubMed Central

    Snook, Roger

    1972-01-01

    This paper describes the organization, evaluation, and costing of an independently financed and operated accident flying squad. 132 accidents involving 302 casualties were attended, six deaths were prevented, medical treatment contributed to the survival of a further four, and the condition or comfort of many other casualties was improved. The calls in which survival was influenced were evenly distributed throughout the three-and-a-half-year survey and seven of the 10 so aided were over 16 and under 30 years of age, all 10 being in the working age group. The time taken to provide the service was not excessive and the expense when compared with the overall saving was very small. The scheme was seen to be equally suitable for basing on hospital or general practice or both, and working as an integrated team with the ambulance service. The use of specialized transport was found to be unnecessary. Other benefits of the scheme included use of the experience of attending accidents to ensure relevant and realistic training for emergency service personnel, and an appreciation of the effect of ambulance design on the patient. ImagesFIG. 1FIG. 4 PMID:5069642

  16. Efficient exploration of the space of reconciled gene trees.

    PubMed

    Szöllõsi, Gergely J; Rosikiewicz, Wojciech; Boussau, Bastien; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent

    2013-11-01

    Gene trees record the combination of gene-level events, such as duplication, transfer and loss (DTL), and species-level events, such as speciation and extinction. Gene tree-species tree reconciliation methods model these processes by drawing gene trees into the species tree using a series of gene and species-level events. The reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alone almost always involves choosing between statistically equivalent or weakly distinguishable relationships that could be much better resolved based on a putative species tree. To exploit this potential for accurate reconstruction of gene trees, the space of reconciled gene trees must be explored according to a joint model of sequence evolution and gene tree-species tree reconciliation. Here we present amalgamated likelihood estimation (ALE), a probabilistic approach to exhaustively explore all reconciled gene trees that can be amalgamated as a combination of clades observed in a sample of gene trees. We implement the ALE approach in the context of a reconciliation model (Szöllősi et al. 2013), which allows for the DTL of genes. We use ALE to efficiently approximate the sum of the joint likelihood over amalgamations and to find the reconciled gene tree that maximizes the joint likelihood among all such trees. We demonstrate using simulations that gene trees reconstructed using the joint likelihood are substantially more accurate than those reconstructed using sequence alone. Using realistic gene tree topologies, branch lengths, and alignment sizes, we demonstrate that ALE produces more accurate gene trees even if the model of sequence evolution is greatly simplified. Finally, examining 1099 gene families from 36 cyanobacterial genomes we find that joint likelihood-based inference results in a striking reduction in apparent phylogenetic discord, with respectively. 24%, 59%, and 46% reductions in the mean numbers of duplications, transfers, and losses per gene family. The open source

  17. Characterization of a nuclear accident dosimeter

    SciTech Connect

    Burrows, R.A.

    1995-12-01

    The 23rd nuclear accident dosimetry intercomparison was held during the week of June 12--16, 1995 at Los Alamos National Laboratory. This report presents the results of this event, referred to as NAD 23, as related to the performance of Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) personal nuclear accident dosimeter (PNAD). Two separate critical assemblies, SHEBA and Godiva, were used to generate seven separate neutron spectra for use in dose comparisons. SNL`s PNAD measured absorbed doses that were within +16 to +26% of the reference doses. In addition, a preliminary investigation was undertaken to determine the feasibility of using the data obtained from an irradiated PNAD to correct for body orientation. This portion of the experiment was performed with a TRIGA reactor at the Nuclear Science Center at Texas A and M University.

  18. EPR Severe Accident Threats and Mitigation

    SciTech Connect

    Azarian, G.; Kursawe, H.M.; Nie, M.; Fischer, M.; Eyink, J.; Stoudt, R.H.

    2004-07-01

    Despite the extremely low EPR core melt frequency, an improved defence-in-depth approach is applied in order to comply with the EPR safety target: no stringent countermeasures should be necessary outside the immediate plant vicinity like evacuation, relocation or food control other than the first harvest in case of a severe accident. Design provisions eliminate energetic events and maintain the containment integrity and leak-tightness during the entire course of the accident. Based on scenarios that cover a broad range of physical phenomena and which provide a sound envelope of boundary conditions associated with each containment challenge, a selection of representative loads has been done, for which mitigation measures have to cope with. This paper presents the main critical threats and the approach used to mitigate those threats. (authors)

  19. Hydrogen Peroxide Accidents and Incidents: What We Can Learn From History

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Greene, Ben; Baker, David L.; Frazier, Wayne

    2005-01-01

    Historical accidents and incidents involving hydrogen peroxide are reviewed and presented. These hydrogen peroxide events are associated with storage, transportation, handling, and disposal and they include exposures, fires, and explosions. Understanding the causes and effects of these accident and incident examples may aid personnel currently working with hydrogen peroxide to mitigate and perhaps avoid similar situations. Lessons learned, best practices, and regulatory compliance information related to the cited accidents and incidents are also discussed.

  20. [The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

    PubMed

    Grosche, B

    2013-04-01

    The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised.

  1. [The Fukushima nuclear accident: consequences for Japan and for us].

    PubMed

    Grosche, B

    2013-04-01

    The Fukushima accident was the consequence of a preceding 2-fold natural catastrophe: the earth quake of 11 March 2011 and the subsequent tsunami. Due to favourable winds and to evacuation measures the radiation exposure to the general population in Japan as a whole and with some exceptions in the region outside the evacuation zone, too, was low. In this article the attempt is made to give an estimate of health consequences to the public. This is based upon WHO's dose estimates, knowledge of the consequences of the Chernobyl accident, of the atmospheric nuclear bomb testing in Kazakhstan and on the risk of childhood leukaemia after low dose radiation exposure. For Germany, there was no radiation threat due to the accident. Nonetheless, the events in Japan made clear that the rules and standards that were developed for the case of a reactor accident need to be revised. PMID:23576143

  2. [Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and Tokaimura criticality accident].

    PubMed

    Takada, Jun

    2012-03-01

    It is clear from inspection of historical incidents that the scale of disasters in a nuclear power plant accident is quite low level overwhelmingly compared with a nuclear explosion in nuclear war. Two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear blast with about 20 kt TNT equivalent and then approximately 100,000 people have died respectively. On the other hand, the number of acute death is 30 in the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. In this chapter, we review health hazards and doses in two historical nuclear incidents of Chernobyl and Tokaimura criticality accident and then understand the feature of the radiation accident in peaceful utilization of nuclear power.

  3. U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 through 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Franklin D.; Kasper, Eugene F.

    1998-01-01

    The U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has recorded 8,436 rotorcraft accidents during the period mid - 1963 through the end of 1997. Review and analysis of the NTSB summary narrative for each accident has been completed. In addition, FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) counts of the growing registered rotorcraft fleet over this period has obtained. Taken together, a large and informative data base is now available, which indicates that the accident rate (on a per airframe basis) has changed very little since the mid 1970s. The data base, even in the summary form provided by this paper, offers suggestions for safer designs and improved flight operations. For analysis purposes, each accident has been placed in one of 21 top level categories as defined by the NTSB. Analysis of this grouping shows that 70 percent of rotorcraft accidents are associated with four categories. The accident count in these top four categories are: (1) 2,408 Loss of engine power (2) 1,322 In flight collision with object (3) 1,114 Loss of control (4) 1,083 Airframe/component/system failure or malfunction. Single engine rotorcraft dominate these accident statistics because of their sheer numbers over the study period. One-third of the loss of engine power accidents with these aircraft is fuel/air mixture related and fuel exhaustion is a common event. This appears to be the case whether a piston or turbine engine is installed. This paper provides similar study results in the other major mishap categories. It shows that both minor and major design and flight operations changes can -- and should -- be made to reduce rotorcraft accidents in the future. The paper outlines these changes and suggests how they may be made.

  4. Aircraft accident survivors as witnesses.

    PubMed

    Dodge, R E

    1983-02-01

    This is a study of the reliability of aircrash survivors as witnesses. Some of their statements are compared to known facts at the time of the crash, including the time of the accident and the weather conditions. Other facts are compared between the survivors, such as the mood of the passengers immediately post-crash. The KLM-Pan Am accident in the Canary Islands is used as the study accident. A suggestion for future use of survivors' statements is tendered.

  5. Detecting Coppice Legacies from Tree Growth.

    PubMed

    Müllerová, Jana; Pejcha, Vít; Altman, Jan; Plener, Tomáš; Dörner, Petr; Doležal, Jiří

    2016-01-01

    In coppice-with-standards, once a common type of management in Central European lowland forests, selected trees (standards) were left to grow mature among the regularly harvested coppice stools to obtain construction wood. After the underwood was harvested, the forest canopy opened rapidly, giving standard trees an opportunity to benefit from reduced competition. Although this silvicultural system virtually disappeared after WWII, historical management cycles can still be traced in the tree-rings of remaining standards. Our research aims at answering the question whether tree-ring series of standard trees can be used to reconstruct past management practices. The study was carried out on 117 oak standard trees from five sites situated in formerly coppiced calcareous oak-hornbeam and acidophilous oak forests in the Bohemian Karst Protected Landscape Area, Czech Republic. The evaluation was based on the analysis of growth releases representing the response of the standards to coppicing events, and comparison to the archival records of coppice events. Our results showed that coppicing events can be successfully detected by tree-ring analysis, although there are some limitations. Altogether 241 releases were identified (49% of major releases). Large number of releases could be related to historical records, with the major ones giving better results. The overall probability of correct detection (positive predictive power) was 58%, ranging from 50 to 67%, probability for major releases was 78%, ranging from 63 to 100% for different sites. The ability of individual trees to mirror past coppice events was significantly affected by competition from neighboring trees (their number and the sum of distance-weighted basal areas). A dendro-ecological approach to the study of forest management history can serve as an input for current attempts of coppice reintroduction and for conservation purposes.

  6. Detecting Coppice Legacies from Tree Growth

    PubMed Central

    Müllerová, Jana; Pejcha, Vít; Altman, Jan; Plener, Tomáš; Dörner, Petr; Doležal, Jiří

    2016-01-01

    In coppice-with-standards, once a common type of management in Central European lowland forests, selected trees (standards) were left to grow mature among the regularly harvested coppice stools to obtain construction wood. After the underwood was harvested, the forest canopy opened rapidly, giving standard trees an opportunity to benefit from reduced competition. Although this silvicultural system virtually disappeared after WWII, historical management cycles can still be traced in the tree-rings of remaining standards. Our research aims at answering the question whether tree-ring series of standard trees can be used to reconstruct past management practices. The study was carried out on 117 oak standard trees from five sites situated in formerly coppiced calcareous oak-hornbeam and acidophilous oak forests in the Bohemian Karst Protected Landscape Area, Czech Republic. The evaluation was based on the analysis of growth releases representing the response of the standards to coppicing events, and comparison to the archival records of coppice events. Our results showed that coppicing events can be successfully detected by tree-ring analysis, although there are some limitations. Altogether 241 releases were identified (49% of major releases). Large number of releases could be related to historical records, with the major ones giving better results. The overall probability of correct detection (positive predictive power) was 58%, ranging from 50 to 67%, probability for major releases was 78%, ranging from 63 to 100% for different sites. The ability of individual trees to mirror past coppice events was significantly affected by competition from neighboring trees (their number and the sum of distance-weighted basal areas). A dendro-ecological approach to the study of forest management history can serve as an input for current attempts of coppice reintroduction and for conservation purposes. PMID:26784583

  7. Injuries are not accidents: towards a culture of prevention.

    PubMed

    Bonilla-Escobar, Francisco Javier; Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us.

  8. Tree Tectonics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vogt, Peter R.

    2004-09-01

    Nature often replicates her processes at different scales of space and time in differing media. Here a tree-trunk cross section I am preparing for a dendrochronological display at the Battle Creek Cypress Swamp Nature Sanctuary (Calvert County, Maryland) dried and cracked in a way that replicates practically all the planform features found along the Mid-Oceanic Ridge (see Figure 1). The left-lateral offset of saw marks, contrasting with the right-lateral ``rift'' offset, even illustrates the distinction between transcurrent (strike-slip) and transform faults, the latter only recognized as a geologic feature, by J. Tuzo Wilson, in 1965. However, wood cracking is but one of many examples of natural processes that replicate one or several elements of lithospheric plate tectonics. Many of these examples occur in everyday venues and thus make great teaching aids, ``teachable'' from primary school to university levels. Plate tectonics, the dominant process of Earth geology, also occurs in miniature on the surface of some lava lakes, and as ``ice plate tectonics'' on our frozen seas and lakes. Ice tectonics also happens at larger spatial and temporal scales on the Jovian moons Europa and perhaps Ganymede. Tabletop plate tectonics, in which a molten-paraffin ``asthenosphere'' is surfaced by a skin of congealing wax ``plates,'' first replicated Mid-Oceanic Ridge type seafloor spreading more than three decades ago. A seismologist (J. Brune, personal communication, 2004) discovered wax plate tectonics by casually and serendipitously pulling a stick across a container of molten wax his wife and daughters had used in making candles. Brune and his student D. Oldenburg followed up and mirabile dictu published the results in Science (178, 301-304).

  9. Radiation accident grips Goiania

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, L.

    1987-11-20

    On 13 September two young scavengers in Goiania, Brazil, removed a stainless steel cylinder from a cancer therapy machine in an abandoned clinic, touching off a radiation accident second only to Chernobyl in its severity. On 18 September they sold the cylinder, the size of a 1-gallon paint can, to a scrap dealer for $25. At the junk yard an employee dismantled the cylinder and pried open the platinum capsule inside to reveal a glowing blue salt-like substance - 1400 curies of cesium-137. Fascinated by the luminescent powder, several people took it home with them. Some children reportedly rubbed in on their bodies like carnival glitter - an eerie image of how wrong things can go when vigilance over radioactive materials lapses. In all, 244 people in Goiania, a city of 1 million in central Brazil, were contaminated. The eventual toll, in terms of cancer or genetic defects, cannot yet be estimated. Parts of the city are cordoned off as radiation teams continue washing down buildings and scooping up radioactive soil. The government is also grappling with the political fallout from the accident.

  10. Accident rates and types among self-employed private forest owners.

    PubMed

    Lindroos, Ola; Burström, Lage

    2010-11-01

    Half of all Swedish forests are owned by private individuals, and at least 215,000 people work in these privately owned forest holdings. However, only lethal accidents are systematically monitored among self-employed forest workers. Therefore, data from the registries of the Swedish Work Environment Authority, the Labor Insurance Organization and the regional University Hospital in Umeå were gathered to allow us to perform a more in-depth assessment of the rate and types of accidents that occurred among private forest owners. We found large differences between the registries in the type and number of accidents that were reported. We encountered difficulties in defining "self-employed forest worker" and also in determining whether the accidents that did occur happened during work or leisure time. Consequently, the estimates for the accident rate that we obtained varied from 32 to > or = 4300 injured persons per year in Sweden, depending on the registry that was consulted, the definition of the sample population that was used, and the accident severity definition that was employed. Nevertheless, the different registries gave a consistent picture of the types of accidents that occur while individuals are participating in self-employed forestry work. Severe accidents were relatively common, as self-employed forestry work fatalities constituted 7% of the total number of fatalities in the work authority registry. Falling trees were associated with many of these fatal accidents as well as with accidents that resulted in severe non-fatal injuries. Thus, unsafe work methods appeared more related to the occurrence of an accident than the equipment that was being used at the time of the accident (e.g., a chainsaw). Improvement of the workers' skills should therefore be considered to be an important prevention measure that should be undertaken in this field. The challenges in improving the safety in these smallest of companies, which fall somewhere between the purview of

  11. [Risk assessment expanded accident insurance for children].

    PubMed

    Sittaro, N A

    1998-08-01

    Disability is a well known and tragic event for children. While adults are an established group for specific disability insurance cover, children were often neglected in the past. Although parents, organizations and paediatricans are aware of the risk, children specific incidence rates for disability are hardly available. The only sufficient source for some statistical data are the accident statistics because they represent a substantial group of specific cause related disability for children. Incidence rates for disease related chronic severe impairment or disability in children are either derived by single disease research or actuarial calculation of the German Social Disability Registration. Based on this statistical background, an extended accident insurance for children was introduced in Germany covering both accidents and disabling diseases. The key limitation for all variations of this insurance are exclusion clauses for congential diseases and mental disorders. This insurance requires a new approach in underwriting of the health risks. Because of the substantial number of impaired children, a simple decline of substandard cases are unacceptable. The early experience or medical underwriting shows predominantly health impairments of the following types: allergies, bronchial asthma, ectopic eczema (neurodermitis), disorders of speech and articulation, vision disorders and mental impairments. The suggested solution for underwriting of substandard risks is the predetermination of the possible future maximum degree of disability. The need for underwriting guidelines is supported by the market impact of the new disability cover with thousands of insurance policies issued in the first month after introduction. PMID:9745365

  12. Using Bayesian Belief Networks and event trees for volcanic hazard assessment and decision support : reconstruction of past eruptions of La Soufrière volcano, Guadeloupe and retrospective analysis of 1975-77 unrest.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Komorowski, Jean-Christophe; Hincks, Thea; Sparks, Steve; Aspinall, Willy; Legendre, Yoann; Boudon, Georges

    2013-04-01

    the contemporary volcanological narrative, and demonstrates that a formal evidential case could have been made to support the authorities' concerns and decision to evacuate. Revisiting the circumstances of the 1976 crisis highlights many contemporary challenges of decision-making under conditions of volcanological uncertainty. We suggest the BBN concept is a suitable framework for marshalling multiple observations, model results and interpretations - and all associated uncertainties - in a methodical manner. Base-rate eruption probabilities for Guadeloupe can be updated now with a new chronology of activity suggesting that 10 major explosive phases and 9 dome-forming phases occurred in the last 9150 years, associated with ≥ 8 flank-collapses and ≥ 6-7 high-energy pyroclastic density currents (blasts). Eruptive recurrence, magnitude and intensity place quantitative constraints on La Soufrière's event tree to elaborate credible scenarios. The current unrest offers an opportunity to update the BBN model and explore the uncertainty on inferences about the system's internal state. This probabilistic formalism would provoke key questions relating to unrest evolution: 1) is the unrest hydrothermal or magmatic? 2) what controls dyke/intrusion arrest and hence failed-magmatic eruptions like 1976? 3) what conditions could lead to significant pressurization with potential for explosive activity and edifice instability, and what monitoring signs might be manifest?

  13. Brookhaven lecture series No. 227: The Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Kouts, H.

    1986-09-24

    This lecture discusses the events leading to, during, and following the Chernobyl Reactor number 4 accident. A description of the light water cooled, graphite moderated reactor, the reactor site conditions leading to meltdown is presented. The emission of radioactive effluents and the biological radiation effects is also discussed. (FI)

  14. Van Accidents Raise Questions about Teams' Safety on the Road.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willdorf, Nina

    2000-01-01

    Examines factors involved in the greater numbers of traffic accidents as college sports teams travel more frequently and further to compete in intercollegiate events. Suggests that athletes in non-income-generating sports and/or in lower divisions of the National Collegiate Athletic Association are at greater risk because they are more likely to…

  15. 49 CFR 195.52 - Immediate notice of certain accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS LIQUIDS BY PIPELINE Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.52... discovery of a release of the hazardous liquid or carbon dioxide transported resulting in an event described...) Resulted in either a fire or explosion not intentionally set by the operator; (3) Caused estimated...

  16. 49 CFR 195.52 - Telephonic notice of certain accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... TRANSPORTATION OF HAZARDOUS LIQUIDS BY PIPELINE Annual, Accident, and Safety-Related Condition Reporting § 195.52... release of the hazardous liquid or carbon dioxide transported resulting in an event described in § 195.50... fire or explosion not intentionally set by the operator; (3) Caused estimated property...

  17. The Needs of Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boyd, Amy E.; Cooper, Jim

    2004-01-01

    Tree rings can be used not only to look at plant growth, but also to make connections between plant growth and resource availability. In this lesson, students in 2nd-4th grades use role-play to become familiar with basic requirements of trees and how availability of those resources is related to tree ring sizes and tree growth. These concepts can…

  18. The Epidemiology and Prevention of Traffic Accidents Involving Child Pedestrians

    PubMed Central

    Read, John H.; Bradley, Eleanor J.; Morison, Joan D.; Lewall, David; Clarke, David A.

    1963-01-01

    A study of 713 motor vehicle accidents involving 749 children in the city of Vancouver is reported. A control group of 110 children who did not have accidents was included in the concurrent study. Factors investigated were the driver, the vehicle, the weather, the time of day, the day of week, the month, the width of roadway, the location of the accident, the child's age, sex, personality, school record, and family background, the type of injury, and the ambulance and hospital service received. Boys were more commonly involved than girls, and most accidents occurred in the 3 to 7 year age group. Head injuries prevailed in the younger age groups and decreased steadily with the age of the child. Specific epidemic areas in the city were identified and selective enforcement was suggested as a possible countermeasure. Hospital records seldom provided a detailed history of the events leading up to the accident. In order to apply the preventive techniques of education and enforcement it was suggested that in each pedestrian traffic accident the driver should be required to accompany the victim to the site of medical care. ImagesFig. 4 PMID:14055829

  19. German aircraft accident statistics, 1930

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Weitzmann, Ludwig

    1932-01-01

    The investigation of all serious accidents, involving technical defects in the airplane or engine, is undertaken by the D.V.L. in conjunction with the imperial traffic minister and other interested parties. All accidents not clearly explained in the reports are subsequently cleared up.

  20. [Psychological support for road accident participants: the program implementation outcome].

    PubMed

    Mikuczewska-Wośko, Aleksandra; Biłyj, Dorota; Tomczyk, Jarosław

    2009-01-01

    Road accident belongs to one of the categories of traumatic events, and can cause posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). The most common psychological consequences of road traffic accidents are the emotional disorders, cognitive deficits (disorders concentration of attention and memory function), impaired social relationships, troubles with performing work duties and physical symp-toms of stress. The article discusses the program of psychological support given to the participants of road accidents, conducted in Wroclaw, its theoretical assumptions and the mode of its implementation. Basic theoretical assumptions of the program are inter alia based on the theories of H. Selye and R. Lazarus. The authors of this article also refer to the so-called therapeutic process of education designed by Everly and Rosenfeld, who recommend that the process of developing self-responsibility be used for therapeutic purposes. This requires clarifying the exact nature of the problem, and then looking for possible remedies. The program is open to all road accident participants (victims, perpetrators, witnesses) and their families. Classes are designed to combine theory (lectures) and practice (exercises). Anxiety and cognitive processes, as well as relaxation training, interpersonal training (eg, assertiveness) and kinesiology are the major areas of activities. Psychological support provided for road accident participants is of intervention--and preventive nature; intervention, as it relates to the consequences ofa specific stressogenic event, namely a road accident; preventive, as it serves the overriding purpose--the improvement of road safety. This article presents the main findings of the program, the results of the survey evaluation, and proposals to develop psychological operations aimed at the road accidents participants.

  1. Risk assessment and national measure plan for oil and HNS spill accidents near Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2013-08-15

    Many oil and HNS spill accidents occur in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula because Korea is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. In this study, we analyzed the oil and HNS spill accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2005 and created risk matrices to assess these accidents. The worst scenarios of future oil and HNS spill accidents were established, and the maximum spill amounts were estimated using historic accident data and a correlation from IPIECA. The maximum spill amounts are estimated to be between 77,000 and 10,000 tons of oil and HNS, respectively. One third of the spill materials should be removed using recovery equipment within three days of the spill event, according to the national measure plan. The capability of recovery equipment to remove spill materials can be estimated, and the equipment should then be prepared to mitigate the harmful effects of future oil and HNS accidents on humans and marine ecosystems.

  2. [Spatial distribution of accidents, incidents and diseases related to work in Peru, 2012-2014].

    PubMed

    Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Díaz-Seijas, Deysi; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Santero, Marilina

    2016-03-01

    We analyzed geospatially accidents, incidents and diseases related to work of regional reports in Peru (2012-2014). The 52887 events were classified as work related accidents (93%), dangerous incidents (5.1%), occupational diseases (1%) and fatal accidents (0.9%). The highest rates of fatal accidents were reported in Pasco, Callao, Lima, Moquegua and Arequipa. Callao and Lima are the regions with the highest rates of occupational accidents. The highest rates of dangerous incidents were reported in Arequipa, Callao, Lima, Ica and Piura. Occupational diseases are distributed with high rates in Huancavelica, Ancash, Pasco, Callao and Cusco. The economic activities that reported most of the occupational diseases were mining and quarrying (49.2%); followed by manufacturing industry (23.4%); and construction (8%). It is concluded that there are high rates and common spatial patterns of laboral accidents in Peru that could be used by decision makers to focus interventions. PMID:27384629

  3. [Spatial distribution of accidents, incidents and diseases related to work in Peru, 2012-2014].

    PubMed

    Hernández-Vásquez, Akram; Díaz-Seijas, Deysi; Vilcarromero, Stalin; Santero, Marilina

    2016-03-01

    We analyzed geospatially accidents, incidents and diseases related to work of regional reports in Peru (2012-2014). The 52887 events were classified as work related accidents (93%), dangerous incidents (5.1%), occupational diseases (1%) and fatal accidents (0.9%). The highest rates of fatal accidents were reported in Pasco, Callao, Lima, Moquegua and Arequipa. Callao and Lima are the regions with the highest rates of occupational accidents. The highest rates of dangerous incidents were reported in Arequipa, Callao, Lima, Ica and Piura. Occupational diseases are distributed with high rates in Huancavelica, Ancash, Pasco, Callao and Cusco. The economic activities that reported most of the occupational diseases were mining and quarrying (49.2%); followed by manufacturing industry (23.4%); and construction (8%). It is concluded that there are high rates and common spatial patterns of laboral accidents in Peru that could be used by decision makers to focus interventions.

  4. National Ignition Facility: Impacts of chemical accidents and comparison of chemical and radiological accident approaches

    SciTech Connect

    Lazaro, M.A.; Policastro, A.J.; Rhodes, M.F.

    1996-12-31

    An environmental assessment was conducted to estimate potential impacts or consequences associated with constructing and operating the proposed National Ignition Facility (NIF). The multidisciplinary assessment covered topics ranging from radiological and chemical health and safety to socioeconomic and land-use issues. The impacts of five chemical accidents that could occur at NIF are compared, and the extent of their consequences for workers and off-site populations are discussed. Each of the five accident scenarios was modeled by a chemical release and dispersion model with a toxicological criterion for evaluating potential irreversible human health effects. Results show that most of the chemical release scenarios considered will not impair the general public in taking protective actions in the event of an accidental release. The two exceptions are the mercury release (equipment failure) scenarios for the conceptual design and the enhanced design. In general, the predicted maximum threat zones are significantly less than the distance to the point of nearest public access.

  5. Assessment of two BWR accident management strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, S.A.; Petek, M.

    1991-01-01

    Candidate mitigative strategies for management of in-vessel events during the late phase (after core degradation has occurred) of postulated BWR severe accidents were considered at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) during 1990. The identification of new strategies was subject to the constraint that they should, to the maximum extent possible, make use of the existing equipment and water resources of the BWR facilities and not require major equipment modifications or additions. As a result of this effort, two of these candidate strategies were recommended for additional assessment. The first is a strategy for containment flooding to maintain the core and structural debris within the reactor vessel in the event that vessel injection cannot be restored to terminate a severe accident sequence. The second strategy pertains to the opposite case, for which vessel injection would be restored after control blade melting had begun; its purpose is to provide an injection source of borated water at the concentration necessary to preclude criticality upon recovering a damaged BWR core. Assessments of these two strategies have been performed during 1991 under the auspices of the Detailed Assessment of BWR In-Vessel Strategies Program. This paper provides a discussion of the motivation for and purpose of these strategies and the potential for their success. 33 refs., 9 figs.

  6. An association between dietary habits and traffic accidents in patients with chronic liver disease: A data-mining analysis

    PubMed Central

    KAWAGUCHI, TAKUMI; SUETSUGU, TAKURO; OGATA, SHYOU; IMANAGA, MINAMI; ISHII, KUMIKO; ESAKI, NAO; SUGIMOTO, MASAKO; OTSUYAMA, JYURI; NAGAMATSU, AYU; TANIGUCHI, EITARO; ITOU, MINORU; ORIISHI, TETSUHARU; IWASAKI, SHOKO; MIURA, HIROKO; TORIMURA, TAKUJI

    2016-01-01

    The incidence of traffic accidents in patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) is high in the USA. However, the characteristics of patients, including dietary habits, differ between Japan and the USA. The present study investigated the incidence of traffic accidents in CLD patients and the clinical profiles associated with traffic accidents in Japan using a data-mining analysis. A cross-sectional study was performed and 256 subjects [148 CLD patients (CLD group) and 106 patients with other digestive diseases (disease control group)] were enrolled; 2 patients were excluded. The incidence of traffic accidents was compared between the two groups. Independent factors for traffic accidents were analyzed using logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. The incidence of traffic accidents did not differ between the CLD and disease control groups (8.8 vs. 11.3%). The results of the logistic regression analysis showed that yoghurt consumption was the only independent risk factor for traffic accidents (odds ratio, 0.37; 95% confidence interval, 0.16–0.85; P=0.0197). Similarly, the results of the decision-tree analysis showed that yoghurt consumption was the initial divergence variable. In patients who consumed yoghurt habitually, the incidence of traffic accidents was 6.6%, while that in patients who did not consume yoghurt was 16.0%. CLD was not identified as an independent factor in the logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. In conclusion, the difference in the incidence of traffic accidents in Japan between the CLD and disease control groups was insignificant. Furthermore, yoghurt consumption was an independent negative risk factor for traffic accidents in patients with digestive diseases, including CLD. PMID:27123257

  7. Analysis of the temporal properties in car accident time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Telesca, Luciano; Lovallo, Michele

    2008-05-01

    In this paper we study the time-clustering behavior of sequences of car accidents, using data from a freely available database in the internet. The Allan Factor analysis, which is a well-suited method to investigate time-dynamical behaviors in point processes, has revealed that the car accident sequences are characterized by a general time-scaling behavior, with the presence of cyclic components. These results indicate that the time dynamics of the events are not Poissonian but long range correlated with periodicities ranging from 12 h to 1 year.

  8. Precursors to potential severe core damage accidents, 1986: A status report: Main report and Appendixes A,B, and C

    SciTech Connect

    Minarick, J W; Harris, J D; Austin, P N; Cletcher, J W; Hagen, E W

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Sequence Precursor Program reviews licensee event reports of operational events that have occurred at LWRs to identify and categorize precursors to potential severe core-damage accidents. Accident sequences considered in the study are those associated with inadequate core cooling. Accident sequence precursors are events that are important elements in such sequences. Such precursors could be infrequent initiating events or equipment failures that, when coupled with one or more postulated events, could result in a plant condition with inadequate core cooling. Originally proposed in the Risk Assessment Review Group Report (Lewis Committee report) in 1978, the study - subsequently named the Accident Sequence Precursor Program - was initiated at the Nuclear Operations Analysis Center in 1979. Earlier reports by the program involved assessment of events that occurred in 1969-1981 and 1984-1985. The present report involves the assessment of events that occurred during 1986. A nuclear plant has safety systems for mitigating the consequences of accidents or off-normal initiating events that may occur during the course of plant operation. These systems are built to high-quality standards and are redundant; nonetheless, they have a nonzero probability of failing or being in a failed state when required to operate. This report uses LERs and other plant data, estimated system unavailabilities, the expected average frequency of initiating events (LOFWs, LOOPs, LOCAs), and event details to evaluate the potential impact of the following two situations.

  9. Categorizing Ideas about Trees: A Tree of Trees

    PubMed Central

    Fisler, Marie; Lecointre, Guillaume

    2013-01-01

    The aim of this study is to explore whether matrices and MP trees used to produce systematic categories of organisms could be useful to produce categories of ideas in history of science. We study the history of the use of trees in systematics to represent the diversity of life from 1766 to 1991. We apply to those ideas a method inspired from coding homologous parts of organisms. We discretize conceptual parts of ideas, writings and drawings about trees contained in 41 main writings; we detect shared parts among authors and code them into a 91-characters matrix and use a tree representation to show who shares what with whom. In other words, we propose a hierarchical representation of the shared ideas about trees among authors: this produces a “tree of trees.” Then, we categorize schools of tree-representations. Classical schools like “cladists” and “pheneticists” are recovered but others are not: “gradists” are separated into two blocks, one of them being called here “grade theoreticians.” We propose new interesting categories like the “buffonian school,” the “metaphoricians,” and those using “strictly genealogical classifications.” We consider that networks are not useful to represent shared ideas at the present step of the study. A cladogram is made for showing who is sharing what with whom, but also heterobathmy and homoplasy of characters. The present cladogram is not modelling processes of transmission of ideas about trees, and here it is mostly used to test for proximity of ideas of the same age and for categorization. PMID:23950877

  10. Quantifying safety benefit of winter road maintenance: accident frequency modeling.

    PubMed

    Usman, Taimur; Fu, Liping; Miranda-Moreno, Luis F

    2010-11-01

    This research presents a modeling approach to investigate the association of the accident frequency during a snow storm event with road surface conditions, visibility and other influencing factors controlling for traffic exposure. The results have the premise to be applied for evaluating different maintenance strategies using safety as a performance measure. As part of this approach, this research introduces a road surface condition index as a surrogate measure of the commonly used friction measure to capture different road surface conditions. Data from various data sources, such as weather, road condition observations, traffic counts and accidents, are integrated and used to test three event-based models including the Negative Binomial model, the generalized NB model and the zero inflated NB model. These models are compared for their capability to explain differences in accident frequencies between individual snow storms. It was found that the generalized NB model best fits the data, and is most capable of capturing heterogeneity other than excess zeros. Among the main results, it was found that the road surface condition index was statistically significant influencing the accident occurrence. This research is the first showing the empirical relationship between safety and road surface conditions at a disaggregate level (event-based), making it feasible to quantify the safety benefits of alternative maintenance goals and methods.

  11. Predicted spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited onto forests following the Fukushima nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Hashimoto, Shoji; Matsuura, Toshiya; Nanko, Kazuki; Linkov, Igor; Shaw, George; Kaneko, Shinji

    2013-01-01

    The majority of the area contaminated by the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident is covered by forest. To facilitate effective countermeasure strategies to mitigate forest contamination, we simulated the spatio-temporal dynamics of radiocesium deposited into Japanese forest ecosystems in 2011 using a model that was developed after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The simulation revealed that the radiocesium inventories in tree and soil surface organic layer components drop rapidly during the first two years after the fallout. Over a period of one to two years, the radiocesium is predicted to move from the tree and surface organic soil to the mineral soil, which eventually becomes the largest radiocesium reservoir within forest ecosystems. Although the uncertainty of our simulations should be considered, the results provide a basis for understanding and anticipating the future dynamics of radiocesium in Japanese forests following the Fukushima accident. PMID:23995073

  12. Try Fault Tree Analysis, a Step-by-Step Way to Improve Organization Development.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Spitzer, Dean

    1980-01-01

    Fault Tree Analysis, a systems safety engineering technology used to analyze organizational systems, is described. Explains the use of logic gates to represent the relationship between failure events, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and effective use of Fault Tree Analysis. (CT)

  13. Carbon dynamics in trees: feast or famine?

    PubMed

    Sala, Anna; Woodruff, David R; Meinzer, Frederick C

    2012-06-01

    Research on the degree to which carbon (C) availability limits growth in trees, as well as recent trends in climate change and concurrent increases in drought-related tree mortality, have led to a renewed focus on the physiological mechanisms associated with tree growth responses to current and future climate. This has led to some dispute over the role of stored non-structural C compounds as indicators of a tree's current demands for photosynthate. Much of the uncertainty surrounding this issue could be resolved by developing a better understanding of the potential functions of non-structural C stored within trees. In addition to functioning as a buffer to reconcile temporal asynchrony between C demand and supply, the storage of non-structural C compounds may be under greater regulation than commonly recognized. We propose that in the face of environmental stochasticity, large, long-lived trees may require larger C investments in storage pools as safety margins than previously recognized, and that an important function of these pools may be to maintain hydraulic transport, particularly during episodes of severe stress. If so, survival and long-term growth in trees remain a function of C availability. Given that drought, freeze-thaw events and increasing tree height all impose additional constraints on vascular transport, the common trend of an increase in non-structural carbohydrate concentrations with tree size, drought or cold is consistent with our hypothesis. If the regulated maintenance of relatively large constitutive stored C pools in trees serves to maintain hydraulic integrity, then the minimum thresholds are expected to vary depending on the specific tissues, species, environment, growth form and habit. Much research is needed to elucidate the extent to which allocation of C to storage in trees is a passive vs. an active process, the specific functions of stored C pools, and the factors that drive active C allocation to storage. PMID:22302370

  14. Carbon dynamics in trees: feast or famine?

    PubMed

    Sala, Anna; Woodruff, David R; Meinzer, Frederick C

    2012-06-01

    Research on the degree to which carbon (C) availability limits growth in trees, as well as recent trends in climate change and concurrent increases in drought-related tree mortality, have led to a renewed focus on the physiological mechanisms associated with tree growth responses to current and future climate. This has led to some dispute over the role of stored non-structural C compounds as indicators of a tree's current demands for photosynthate. Much of the uncertainty surrounding this issue could be resolved by developing a better understanding of the potential functions of non-structural C stored within trees. In addition to functioning as a buffer to reconcile temporal asynchrony between C demand and supply, the storage of non-structural C compounds may be under greater regulation than commonly recognized. We propose that in the face of environmental stochasticity, large, long-lived trees may require larger C investments in storage pools as safety margins than previously recognized, and that an important function of these pools may be to maintain hydraulic transport, particularly during episodes of severe stress. If so, survival and long-term growth in trees remain a function of C availability. Given that drought, freeze-thaw events and increasing tree height all impose additional constraints on vascular transport, the common trend of an increase in non-structural carbohydrate concentrations with tree size, drought or cold is consistent with our hypothesis. If the regulated maintenance of relatively large constitutive stored C pools in trees serves to maintain hydraulic integrity, then the minimum thresholds are expected to vary depending on the specific tissues, species, environment, growth form and habit. Much research is needed to elucidate the extent to which allocation of C to storage in trees is a passive vs. an active process, the specific functions of stored C pools, and the factors that drive active C allocation to storage.

  15. A review of criticality accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Stratton, W R; Smith, D R

    1989-03-01

    Criticality accidents and the characteristics of prompt power excursions are discussed. Forty-one accidental power transients are reviewed. In each case where available, enough detail is given to help visualize the physical situation, the cause or causes of the accident, the history and characteristics of the transient, the energy release, and the consequences, if any, to personnel and property. Excursions associated with large power reactors are not included in this study, except that some information on the major accident at the Chernobyl reactor in April 1986 is provided in the Appendix. 67 refs., 21 figs., 2 tabs.

  16. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    PubMed

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  17. [Prevention of bicycle accidents].

    PubMed

    Zwipp, H; Barthel, P; Bönninger, J; Bürkle, H; Hagemeister, C; Hannawald, L; Huhn, R; Kühn, M; Liers, H; Maier, R; Otte, D; Prokop, G; Seeck, A; Sturm, J; Unger, T

    2015-04-01

    For a very precise analysis of all injured bicyclists in Germany it would be important to have definitions for "severely injured", "seriously injured" and "critically injured". By this, e.g., two-thirds of surgically treated bicyclists who are not registered by the police could become available for a general analysis. Elderly bicyclists (> 60 years) are a minority (10 %) but represent a majority (50 %) of all fatalities. They profit most by wearing a helmet and would be less injured by using special bicycle bags, switching on their hearing aids and following all traffic rules. E-bikes are used more and more (145 % more in 2012 vs. 2011) with 600,000 at the end of 2011 and are increasingly involved in accidents but still have a lack of legislation. So even for pedelecs 45 with 500 W and a possible speed of 45 km/h there is still no legislative demand for the use of a protecting helmet. 96 % of all injured cyclists in Germany had more than 0.5 ‰ alcohol in their blood, 86 % more than 1.1 ‰ and 59 % more than 1.7 ‰. Fatalities are seen in 24.2 % of cases without any collision partner. Therefore the ADFC calls for a limit of 1.1 ‰. Some virtual studies conclude that integrated sensors in bicycle helmets which would interact with sensors in cars could prevent collisions or reduce the severity of injury by stopping the cars automatically. Integrated sensors in cars with opening angles of 180° enable about 93 % of all bicyclists to be detected leading to a high rate of injury avoidance and/or mitigation. Hanging lamps reduce with 35 % significantly bicycle accidents for children, traffic education for children and special trainings for elderly bicyclists are also recommended as prevention tools. As long as helmet use for bicyclists in Germany rates only 9 % on average and legislative orders for using a helmet will not be in force in the near future, coming up campaigns seem to be necessary to be promoted by the Deutscher

  18. Mitigation of Severe Accident Consequences Using Inherent Safety Principles

    SciTech Connect

    R. A. Wigeland; J. E. Cahalan

    2009-12-01

    Sodium-cooled fast reactors are designed to have a high level of safety. Events of high probability of occurrence are typically handled without consequence through reliable engineering systems and good design practices. For accidents of lower probability, the initiating events are characterized by larger and more numerous challenges to the reactor system, such as failure of one or more major engineered systems and can also include a failure to scram the reactor in response. As the initiating conditions become more severe, they have the potential for creating serious consequences of potential safety significance, including fuel melting, fuel pin disruption and recriticality. If the progression of such accidents is not mitigated by design features of the reactor, energetic events and dispersal of radioactive materials may result. For severe accidents, there are several approaches that can be used to mitigate the consequences of such severe accident initiators, which typically include fuel pin failures and core disruption. One approach is to increase the reliability of the reactor protection system so that the probability of an ATWS event is reduced to less than 1 x 10-6 per reactor year, where larger accident consequences are allowed, meeting the U.S. NRC goal of relegating such accident consequences as core disruption to these extremely low probabilities. The main difficulty with this approach is to convincingly test and guarantee such increased reliability. Another approach is to increase the redundancy of the reactor scram system, which can also reduce the probability of an ATWS event to a frequency of less than 1 x 10-6 per reactor year or lower. The issues with this approach are more related to reactor core design, with the need for a greater number of control rod positions in the reactor core and the associated increase in complexity of the reactor protection system. A third approach is to use the inherent reactivity feedback that occurs in a fast reactor to

  19. Slipping accidents causing low-back pain in a gearbox factory.

    PubMed

    Manning, D P; Shannon, H S

    1981-01-01

    An accident model was used to analyze data in terms of the first event in all reported accidents occurring in a gearbox factory during 1974. The data were used to study the causes of lumbosacral injuries. A labor force of 2000 men sustained 99 lumbosacral injuries, 54 of which led to absence of one or more days. Twenty of the 54 were initiated by slipping, and 17 presented as a sudden onset of low-back pain without any preceding accidental event. A review of all patients who were absent following a slipping accident disclosed that the lumbosacral region was by far the commonest part of the body injured. Tripping was an infrequent cause of these injuries. Slipping rarely features in the literature as a cause of low-back pain. It is suggested that this is due to confusion between various contributory factors and events forming an accident.

  20. Representing cognitive activities and errors in HRA trees

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D.I.

    1992-05-01

    A graphic representation method is presented herein for adapting an existing technology--human reliability analysis (HRA) event trees, used to support event sequence logic structures and calculations--to include a representation of the underlying cognitive activity and corresponding errors associated with human performance. The analyst is presented with three potential means of representing human activity: the NUREG/CR-1278 HRA event tree approach; the skill-, rule- and knowledge-based paradigm; and the slips, lapses, and mistakes paradigm. The above approaches for representing human activity are integrated in order to produce an enriched HRA event tree -- the cognitive event tree system (COGENT)-- which, in turn, can be used to increase the analyst`s understanding of the basic behavioral mechanisms underlying human error and the representation of that error in probabilistic risk assessment. Issues pertaining to the implementation of COGENT are also discussed.

  1. Representing cognitive activities and errors in HRA trees

    SciTech Connect

    Gertman, D.I.

    1992-01-01

    A graphic representation method is presented herein for adapting an existing technology--human reliability analysis (HRA) event trees, used to support event sequence logic structures and calculations--to include a representation of the underlying cognitive activity and corresponding errors associated with human performance. The analyst is presented with three potential means of representing human activity: the NUREG/CR-1278 HRA event tree approach; the skill-, rule- and knowledge-based paradigm; and the slips, lapses, and mistakes paradigm. The above approaches for representing human activity are integrated in order to produce an enriched HRA event tree -- the cognitive event tree system (COGENT)-- which, in turn, can be used to increase the analyst's understanding of the basic behavioral mechanisms underlying human error and the representation of that error in probabilistic risk assessment. Issues pertaining to the implementation of COGENT are also discussed.

  2. Chem-Is-Tree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barry, Dana M.

    1997-01-01

    Provides details on the chemical composition of trees including a definition of wood. Also includes an activity on anthocyanins as well as a discussion of the resistance of wood to solvents and chemicals. Lists interesting products from trees. (DDR)

  3. Tree Classification Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buntine, Wray

    1993-01-01

    This paper introduces the IND Tree Package to prospective users. IND does supervised learning using classification trees. This learning task is a basic tool used in the development of diagnosis, monitoring and expert systems. The IND Tree Package was developed as part of a NASA project to semi-automate the development of data analysis and modelling algorithms using artificial intelligence techniques. The IND Tree Package integrates features from CART and C4 with newer Bayesian and minimum encoding methods for growing classification trees and graphs. The IND Tree Package also provides an experimental control suite on top. The newer features give improved probability estimates often required in diagnostic and screening tasks. The package comes with a manual, Unix 'man' entries, and a guide to tree methods and research. The IND Tree Package is implemented in C under Unix and was beta-tested at university and commercial research laboratories in the United States.

  4. Accident management information needs

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R. )

    1990-04-01

    The tables contained in this Appendix A describe the information needs for a pressurized water reactor (PWR) with a large, dry containment. To identify these information needs, the branch points in the safety objective trees were examined to decide what information is necessary to (a) determine the status of the safety functions in the plant, i.e., whether the safety functions are being adequately maintained within predetermined limits, (b) identify plant behavior (mechanisms) or precursors to this behavior which indicate that a challenge to plant safety is occurring or is imminent, and (c) select strategies that will prevent or mitigate this plant behavior and monitor the implementation and effectiveness of these strategies. The information needs for the challenges to the safety functions are not examined since the summation of the information needs for all mechanisms associated with a challenge comprise the information needs for the challenge itself.

  5. GRC Payload Hazard Assessment: Supporting the STS-107 Accident Investigation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoren, William R.; Zampino, Edward J.

    2004-01-01

    A hazard assessment was conducted on the GRC managed payloads in support of a NASA Headquarters Code Q request to examine STS-107 payloads and determine if they were credible contributors to the Columbia accident. This assessment utilized each payload's Final Flight Safety Data Package for hazard identification. An applicability assessment was performed and most of the hazards were eliminated because they dealt with payload operations or crew interactions. A Fault Tree was developed for all the hazards deemed applicable and the safety verification documentation was reviewed for these applicable hazards. At the completion of this hazard assessment, it was concluded that none of the GRC managed payloads were credible contributors to the Columbia accident.

  6. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Jow, H.N.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D. ); Amos, C.N. ); Helton, J. ); Boyd, G. )

    1992-06-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a point estimate of risk, but to determine the distribution of risk, and to assess the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station. Much of this important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Source Term Panel.

  7. [Orofacial injuries in skateboard accidents].

    PubMed

    Frohberg, U; Bonsmann, M

    1992-04-01

    In a clinical study, 25 accidents involving injuries by a fall with a skateboard were investigated and classified in respect of epidemiology, accident mechanism and injury patterns in the facial region. Accident victims are predominantly boys between 7 and 9 years of age. A multiple trauma involving the teeth and the dental system in general and the soft parts of the face is defined as a characteristic orofacial injury pattern in skateboard accidents. The high proportion of damage to the front teeth poses problems of functional and aesthetic rehabilitation necessitating long-term treatment courses in children and adolescents. Effective prevention of facial injuries may be possible by evolving better facial protection systems and by creating areas of playgrounds where skateboarders can practise safely.

  8. Aircraft accidents : method of analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1929-01-01

    This report on a method of analysis of aircraft accidents has been prepared by a special committee on the nomenclature, subdivision, and classification of aircraft accidents organized by the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics in response to a request dated February 18, 1928, from the Air Coordination Committee consisting of the Assistant Secretaries for Aeronautics in the Departments of War, Navy, and Commerce. The work was undertaken in recognition of the difficulty of drawing correct conclusions from efforts to analyze and compare reports of aircraft accidents prepared by different organizations using different classifications and definitions. The air coordination committee's request was made "in order that practices used may henceforth conform to a standard and be universally comparable." the purpose of the special committee therefore was to prepare a basis for the classification and comparison of aircraft accidents, both civil and military. (author)

  9. Species Tree Inference Using a Mixture Model.

    PubMed

    Ullah, Ikram; Parviainen, Pekka; Lagergren, Jens

    2015-09-01

    Species tree reconstruction has been a subject of substantial research due to its central role across biology and medicine. A species tree is often reconstructed using a set of gene trees or by directly using sequence data. In either of these cases, one of the main confounding phenomena is the discordance between a species tree and a gene tree due to evolutionary events such as duplications and losses. Probabilistic methods can resolve the discordance by coestimating gene trees and the species tree but this approach poses a scalability problem for larger data sets. We present MixTreEM-DLRS: A two-phase approach for reconstructing a species tree in the presence of gene duplications and losses. In the first phase, MixTreEM, a novel structural expectation maximization algorithm based on a mixture model is used to reconstruct a set of candidate species trees, given sequence data for monocopy gene families from the genomes under study. In the second phase, PrIME-DLRS, a method based on the DLRS model (Åkerborg O, Sennblad B, Arvestad L, Lagergren J. 2009. Simultaneous Bayesian gene tree reconstruction and reconciliation analysis. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 106(14):5714-5719), is used for selecting the best species tree. PrIME-DLRS can handle multicopy gene families since DLRS, apart from modeling sequence evolution, models gene duplication and loss using a gene evolution model (Arvestad L, Lagergren J, Sennblad B. 2009. The gene evolution model and computing its associated probabilities. J ACM. 56(2):1-44). We evaluate MixTreEM-DLRS using synthetic and biological data, and compare its performance with a recent genome-scale species tree reconstruction method PHYLDOG (Boussau B, Szöllősi GJ, Duret L, Gouy M, Tannier E, Daubin V. 2013. Genome-scale coestimation of species and gene trees. Genome Res. 23(2):323-330) as well as with a fast parsimony-based algorithm Duptree (Wehe A, Bansal MS, Burleigh JG, Eulenstein O. 2008. Duptree: a program for large-scale phylogenetic

  10. Spine Immobilizer for Accident Victims

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vykukal, H. C.; Lampson, K.

    1983-01-01

    Proposed conformal bladder filled with tiny spheres called "microballoons," enables spine of accident victim to be rapidly immobilized and restrained and permit victim to be safely removed from accident scene in extremely short time after help arrives. Microballoons expand to form rigid mass when pressure within bladder is less than ambient. Bladder strapped to victim is also strapped to rescue chair. Void between bladder and chair is filled with cloth wedges.

  11. Illumination Under Trees

    SciTech Connect

    Max, N

    2002-08-19

    This paper is a survey of the author's work on illumination and shadows under trees, including the effects of sky illumination, sun penumbras, scattering in a misty atmosphere below the trees, and multiple scattering and transmission between leaves. It also describes a hierarchical image-based rendering method for trees.

  12. Winter Birch Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sweeney, Debra; Rounds, Judy

    2011-01-01

    Trees are great inspiration for artists. Many art teachers find themselves inspired and maybe somewhat obsessed with the natural beauty and elegance of the lofty tree, and how it changes through the seasons. One such tree that grows in several regions and always looks magnificent, regardless of the time of year, is the birch. In this article, the…

  13. Minnesota's Forest Trees. Revised.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miles, William R.; Fuller, Bruce L.

    This bulletin describes 46 of the more common trees found in Minnesota's forests and windbreaks. The bulletin contains two tree keys, a summer key and a winter key, to help the reader identify these trees. Besides the two keys, the bulletin includes an introduction, instructions for key use, illustrations of leaf characteristics and twig…

  14. The Wish Tree Project

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brooks, Sarah DeWitt

    2010-01-01

    This article describes the author's experience in implementing a Wish Tree project in her school in an effort to bring the school community together with a positive art-making experience during a potentially stressful time. The concept of a wish tree is simple: plant a tree; provide tags and pencils for writing wishes; and encourage everyone to…

  15. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  16. A review of accidents, prevention and mitigation options related to hazardous gases

    SciTech Connect

    Fthenakis, V.M.

    1993-05-01

    Statistics on industrial accidents are incomplete due to lack of specific criteria on what constitutes a release or accident. In this country, most major industrial accidents were related to explosions and fires of flammable materials, not to releases of chemicals into the environment. The EPA in a study of 6,928 accidental releases of toxic chemicals revealed that accidents at stationary facilities accounted for 75% of the total number of releases, and transportation accidents for the other 25%. About 7% of all reported accidents (468 cases) resulted in 138 deaths and 4,717 injuries ranging from temporary respiratory problems to critical injuries. In-plant accidents accounted for 65% of the casualties. The most efficient strategy to reduce hazards is to choose technologies which do not require the use of large quantities of hazardous gases. For new technologies this approach can be implemented early in development, before large financial resources and efforts are committed to specific options. Once specific materials and options have been selected, strategies to prevent accident initiating events need to be evaluated and implemented. The next step is to implement safety options which suppress a hazard when an accident initiating event occurs. Releases can be prevented or reduced with fail-safe equipment and valves, adequate warning systems and controls to reduce and interrupt gas leakage. If an accident occurs and safety systems fail to contain a hazardous gas release, then engineering control systems will be relied on to reduce/minimize environmental releases. As a final defensive barrier, the prevention of human exposure is needed if a hazardous gas is released, in spite of previous strategies. Prevention of consequences forms the final defensive barrier. Medical facilities close by that can accommodate victims of the worst accident can reduce the consequences of personnel exposure to hazardous gases.

  17. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  18. Historical analysis of US pipeline accidents triggered by natural hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girgin, Serkan; Krausmann, Elisabeth

    2015-04-01

    Natural hazards, such as earthquakes, floods, landslides, or lightning, can initiate accidents in oil and gas pipelines with potentially major consequences on the population or the environment due to toxic releases, fires and explosions. Accidents of this type are also referred to as Natech events. Many major accidents highlight the risk associated with natural-hazard impact on pipelines transporting dangerous substances. For instance, in the USA in 1994, flooding of the San Jacinto River caused the rupture of 8 and the undermining of 29 pipelines by the floodwaters. About 5.5 million litres of petroleum and related products were spilled into the river and ignited. As a results, 547 people were injured and significant environmental damage occurred. Post-incident analysis is a valuable tool for better understanding the causes, dynamics and impacts of pipeline Natech accidents in support of future accident prevention and mitigation. Therefore, data on onshore hazardous-liquid pipeline accidents collected by the US Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) was analysed. For this purpose, a database-driven incident data analysis system was developed to aid the rapid review and categorization of PHMSA incident reports. Using an automated data-mining process followed by a peer review of the incident records and supported by natural hazard databases and external information sources, the pipeline Natechs were identified. As a by-product of the data-collection process, the database now includes over 800,000 incidents from all causes in industrial and transportation activities, which are automatically classified in the same way as the PHMSA record. This presentation describes the data collection and reviewing steps conducted during the study, provides information on the developed database and data analysis tools, and reports the findings of a statistical analysis of the identified hazardous liquid pipeline incidents in terms of accident dynamics and

  19. Severe accidents due to windsurfing in the Aegean Sea.

    PubMed

    Kalogeromitros, A; Tsangaris, H; Bilalis, D; Karabinis, A

    2002-06-01

    Windsurfing is a popular sport and has recently become an Olympic event. As an open-air water activity that requires the participant to be in perfect physical condition, windsurfers may be prone to accidents when certain basic rules or procedures are violated. The current study monitored severe injuries due to windsurfing over a period of 12 months in the Aegean Sea in Greece. Our study revealed 22 cases of severe accidents due to windsurfing, with a wide range of injuries including head injuries, spinal cord injuries, and severe fractures of the extremities. Prolonged hospitalization, severe disability and two deaths occurred as consequences of these accidents. The study examined the characteristics of these patients and the possible risk factors and conditions associated with the accidents. We also focused on the most common types of injuries and reviewed the mechanisms that may provoke them. Water sports and particularly windsurfing represent a major challenge for the emergency medical system, especially in the Aegean Sea. Hundreds of islands, kilometres of isolated coasts, millions of tourists, an extended summer period and rapidly changing weather create conditions that constantly test the efficacy of the emergency services. The development of an appropriate infrastructure and maximum control of the risk factors causing these accidents could reduce the morbidity and mortality that, unfortunately but rather predictably, accompany this popular summer activity. PMID:12131638

  20. Best practices to reduce the accident rate hotel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    García Revilla, M. R.; Kahale Carrillo, D. T.

    2014-10-01

    Examining the available databases and existing tourism organizations can conclude that appear studies on accidents and their relationship with other variables. But in our case we want to assess this relationship in the performance of the hotel in relation to lower the accident rate. The Industrial Safety studies analyzing this accident causes (why they happen), their sources (committed activities), their agents (participants work means), its type (how the events occur or develop), all in order to develop prevention. In our case, as accidents happen because people commit wrongful acts or because the equipment, tools, machinery or workplaces are not in proper conditions, the preventive point of view we analyze through the incidence of workplace accidents hotel subsector. The crash occurs because there is a risk, so that adequate control of it would avoid despite individual factors. Absenteeism or absence from work was taken into account first by Dubois in 1977, as he realized the time lost in the nineteenth century due to the long working hours, which included the holidays. Motivation and job satisfaction were the elements that have been most important in the phenomenon of social psychology.

  1. Radiological Impact Assessment (RIA) following a postulated accident in PHWRS

    SciTech Connect

    Soni, N.; Kansal, M.; Rammohan, H. P.; Malhotra, P. K.

    2012-07-01

    Radiological Impact Assessment (RIA) following postulated accident i.e Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) with failed Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS), performed as part of the reactor safety analysis of a typical 700 MWe Indian Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor(PHWR). The rationale behind the assessment is that the public needs to be protected in the event that the postulated accident results in radionuclide release outside containment. Radionuclides deliver dose to the human body through various pathways namely, plume submersion, exposure due to ground deposition, inhalation and ingestion. The total exposure dose measured in terms of total effective dose equivalent (TEDE) is the sum of doses to a hypothetical adult human at exclusion zone boundary by all the exposure pathways. The analysis provides the important inputs to decide upon the type of emergency counter measures to be adopted during the postulated accident. The importance of the various pathways in terms of contribution to the total effective dose equivalent(TEDE) is also assessed with respect to time of exposure. Inhalation and plume gamma dose are the major contributors towards TEDE during initial period of accident whereas ingestion and ground shine dose start dominating in TEDE in the extended period of exposure. Moreover, TEDE is initially dominated by I-131, Kr-88, Te-132, I-133 and Sr-89, whereas, as time progresses, Xe-133,I-131 and Te-132 become the main contributors. (authors)

  2. Fukushima nuclear power plant accident was preventable

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanoglu, Utku; Synolakis, Costas

    2015-04-01

    On 11 March 2011, the fourth largest earthquake in recorded history triggered a large tsunami, which will probably be remembered from the dramatic live pictures in a country, which is possibly the most tsunami-prepared in the world. The earthquake and tsunami caused a major nuclear power plant (NPP) accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi, owned by Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The accident was likely more severe than the 1979 Three Mile Island and less severe than the Chernobyl 1986 accidents. Yet, after the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami had hit the Madras Atomic Power Station there had been renewed interest in the resilience of NPPs to tsunamis. The 11 March 2011 tsunami hit the Onagawa, Fukushima Dai-ichi, Fukushima Dai-ni, and Tokai Dai-ni NPPs, all located approximately in a 230km stretch along the east coast of Honshu. The Onagawa NPP was the closest to the source and was hit by an approximately height of 13m tsunami, of the same height as the one that hit the Fukushima Dai-ichi. Even though the Onagawa site also subsided by 1m, the tsunami did not reach to the main critical facilities. As the International Atomic Energy Agency put it, the Onagawa NPP survived the event "remarkably undamaged." At Fukushima Dai-ichi, the three reactors in operation were shut down due to strong ground shaking. The earthquake damaged all offsite electric transmission facilities. Emergency diesel generators (EDGs) provided back up power and started cooling down the reactors. However, the tsunami flooded the facilities damaging 12 of its 13 EDGs and caused a blackout. Among the consequences were hydrogen explosions that released radioactive material in the environment. It is unfortunately clear that TEPCO and Japan's principal regulator Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) had failed in providing a professional hazard analysis for the plant, even though their last assessment had taken place only months before the accident. The main reasons are the following. One

  3. Accident Tolerant Fuel Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Curtis Smith; Heather Chichester; Jesse Johns; Melissa Teague; Michael Tonks; Robert Youngblood

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced “RISMC toolkit” that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional “accident-tolerant” (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  4. [Accidents of fulguration].

    PubMed

    Virenque, C; Laguerre, J

    1976-01-01

    Fulguration, first electric accident in which the man was a victim, is to day better known. A clap of thunder is decomposed in two elements: lightning, and thunder. Lightning is caused by an electrical discharge, either within a cloud, or between two clouds, or, above all, between a cloud and the surface of the ground. Experimental equipments owned by the French Electricity Company and by the Atomic Energy Commission, have allowed to photograph lightnings and to measure certain physical characteristics (Intensity variable between 25 to 100 kA, voltage variable between 20 to 1 000 kV). The frequency of storms was learned: the isokeraunic level, in France, is about 20, meaning that thunder is heard twenty days during one year. Man may be stricken by thunder by direct hit, by sudden bursting, by earth current, or through various conductors. The electric charge which reached him may go to the earth directly by contact with the ground or may dissipate in the air through a bony promontory (elbow). The total number of victims, "wounded" or deceased, is not now known by statistics. Death comes by insulation breakdown of one of several anatomic cephalic formations: skull, meninx, brain. Many various lesions may happen in survivors: loss of consciousness, more or less long, sensorial or motion deficiencies. All these signs are momentary and generally reversible. Besides one may observe much more intense lesions on the skin: burns and, over all, characteristic aborescence (skin effect by high frequency current). The heart is protected, contrarily to what happens with industrial electrocution. The curative treatment is merely symptomatic : reanimation, surgery for burns or associated traumatic lesions. A prevention is researched to help the lonely man, in the country or in the mountains in the houses (lightning conductor, Faraday cage), in vehicles (aircraft, cars, ships). The mysterious and unforseeable character of lightning still stays, leaving a door opened for numerous

  5. Accident tolerant fuel analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, Curtis; Chichester, Heather; Johns, Jesse; Teague, Melissa; Tonks, Michael Idaho National Laboratory; Youngblood, Robert

    2014-09-01

    Safety is central to the design, licensing, operation, and economics of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs). Consequently, the ability to better characterize and quantify safety margin holds the key to improved decision making about light water reactor design, operation, and plant life extension. A systematic approach to characterization of safety margins and the subsequent margins management options represents a vital input to the licensee and regulatory analysis and decision making that will be involved. The purpose of the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway research and development (R&D) is to support plant decisions for risk-informed margins management by improving economics and reliability, and sustaining safety, of current NPPs. Goals of the RISMC Pathway are twofold: (1) Develop and demonstrate a risk-assessment method coupled to safety margin quantification that can be used by NPP decision makers as part of their margin recovery strategies. (2) Create an advanced ''RISMC toolkit'' that enables more accurate representation of NPP safety margin. In order to carry out the R&D needed for the Pathway, the Idaho National Laboratory is performing a series of case studies that will explore methods- and tools-development issues, in addition to being of current interest in their own right. One such study is a comparative analysis of safety margins of plants using different fuel cladding types: specifically, a comparison between current-technology Zircaloy cladding and a notional ''accident-tolerant'' (e.g., SiC-based) cladding. The present report begins the process of applying capabilities that are still under development to the problem of assessing new fuel designs. The approach and lessons learned from this case study will be included in future Technical Basis Guides produced by the RISMC Pathway. These guides will be the mechanism for developing the specifications for RISMC tools and for defining how plant decision makers should propose and

  6. A Spectrum Tree Kernel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuboyama, Tetsuji; Hirata, Kouichi; Kashima, Hisashi; F. Aoki-Kinoshita, Kiyoko; Yasuda, Hiroshi

    Learning from tree-structured data has received increasing interest with the rapid growth of tree-encodable data in the World Wide Web, in biology, and in other areas. Our kernel function measures the similarity between two trees by counting the number of shared sub-patterns called tree q-grams, and runs, in effect, in linear time with respect to the number of tree nodes. We apply our kernel function with a support vector machine (SVM) to classify biological data, the glycans of several blood components. The experimental results show that our kernel function performs as well as one exclusively tailored to glycan properties.

  7. Distributed Contour Trees

    SciTech Connect

    Morozov, Dmitriy; Weber, Gunther H.

    2014-03-31

    Topological techniques provide robust tools for data analysis. They are used, for example, for feature extraction, for data de-noising, and for comparison of data sets. This chapter concerns contour trees, a topological descriptor that records the connectivity of the isosurfaces of scalar functions. These trees are fundamental to analysis and visualization of physical phenomena modeled by real-valued measurements. We study the parallel analysis of contour trees. After describing a particular representation of a contour tree, called local{global representation, we illustrate how di erent problems that rely on contour trees can be solved in parallel with minimal communication.

  8. U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents, 1963 Through 1997

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Harris, Franklin D.; Kasper, Eugene F.; Iseler, Laura E.

    2000-01-01

    Narrative summary data produced by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has been obtained and analyzed for all 8,436 U.S. civil registered rotorcraft accidents which occurred from mid-1963 through 1997. This analysis was based on the NTSB's assignment of each mishap into one of 21 "first event" categories. The number of U.S. civil registered rotorcraft as recorded by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) for the same period has also been obtained. Taken together, these data indicate the civil rotorcraft accident rate (on a per 1,000 registered rotorcraft basis) has decreased by almost a factor of 10 (i.e., from 130 accidents per 1,000 rotorcraft in 1964 to 13.4 per 1,000 in 1997). Analysis of the mishap data indicates over 70% of the rotorcraft accidents were associated with one of the following four NTSB "first event" categories: 2408 Loss of engine power (28.5%); 1,322 In-flight collisions with objects (15.7%); 1,114 Loss of control (13.2%); 1,083 Airframe/component/system failure or malfunction (12.8%).

  9. Growth of a Pine Tree

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rollinson, Susan Wells

    2012-01-01

    The growth of a pine tree is examined by preparing "tree cookies" (cross-sectional disks) between whorls of branches. The use of Christmas trees allows the tree cookies to be obtained with inexpensive, commonly available tools. Students use the tree cookies to investigate the annual growth of the tree and how it corresponds to the number of whorls…

  10. [Occupational accidents treated in an emergency room].

    PubMed

    Conceição, Paulo Sérgio de Andrade; Nascimento, Itatyane Bispo de Oliveira; Oliveira, Patrícia Silva; Cerqueira, Maria Ruth Moreira

    2003-01-01

    In Brazil, work-related injuries are only reported to the National Social Security data system. Therefore, records are limited to formally hired workers, who represent less than half of the active work force. In this cross-sectional study, cases of work-related injuries were identified and interviewed in an emergency room in the city of Salvador, capital of Bahia State, Brazil, to estimate their frequency and characteristics. Work-related injuries accounted for 31.6% of all injuries from external causes (n = 215). Only 36.8% of these patients reported having a formal job contract, and of these, fewer than half (45.5%) had their injuries reported to the Social Security data system, which indicates extensive underreporting of such important work-related health events, even in the formal sector of the economy. Medical records from emergency rooms can be an important source of information on work-related accidents, and health surveillance needs to be enforced in such health care services. This can also be an important step in obtaining a more complete picture of the occurrence of work-related accidents in Brazil.

  11. Advanced sodium fast reactor accident source terms :

    SciTech Connect

    Powers, Dana Auburn; Clement, Bernard; Denning, Richard; Ohno, Shuji; Zeyen, Roland

    2010-09-01

    An expert opinion elicitation has been used to evaluate phenomena that could affect releases of radionuclides during accidents at sodium-cooled fast reactors. The intent was to identify research needed to develop a mechanistic model of radionuclide release for licensing and risk assessment purposes. Experts from the USA, France, the European Union, and Japan identified phenomena that could affect the release of radionuclides under hypothesized accident conditions. They qualitatively evaluated the importance of these phenomena and the need for additional experimental research. The experts identified seven phenomena that are of high importance and have a high need for additional experimental research: High temperature release of radionuclides from fuel during an energetic event Energetic interactions between molten reactor fuel and sodium coolant and associated transfer of radionuclides from the fuel to the coolant Entrainment of fuel and sodium bond material during the depressurization of a fuel rod with breached cladding Rates of radionuclide leaching from fuel by liquid sodium Surface enrichment of sodium pools by dissolved and suspended radionuclides Thermal decomposition of sodium iodide in the containment atmosphere Reactions of iodine species in the containment to form volatile organic iodides. Other issues of high importance were identified that might merit further research as development of the mechanistic model of radionuclide release progressed.

  12. Frequency of Specific Categories of Aviation Accidents and Incidents During 2001-2010

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, Joni K.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to determine the types of accidents or incidents that are most important to the aviation safety risk. All accidents and incidents from 2001-2010 were assigned occurrence categories based on the taxonomy developed by the Commercial Aviation Safety Team/International Civil Aviation Organization (CAST/ICAO) Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). The most frequently recorded categories were selected within each of five metrics: total accidents, fatal accidents, total injuries, fatal injuries and total incidents. This analysis was done separately for events within Part 121, Scheduled Part 135, Non-Scheduled Part 135 and Part 91. Combining those five sets of categories resulted in groups of between seven and eleven occurrence categories, depending on the flight operation. These groups represent 65-85% of all accidents and 68-81% of incidents.

  13. Source term estimation during incident response to severe nuclear power plant accidents

    SciTech Connect

    McKenna, T.J.; Glitter, J.G.

    1988-10-01

    This document presents a method of source term estimation that reflects the current understanding of source term behavior and that can be used during an event. The various methods of estimating radionuclide release to the environment (source terms) as a result of an accident at a nuclear power reactor are discussed. The major factors affecting potential radionuclide releases off site (source terms) as a result of nuclear power plant accidents are described. The quantification of these factors based on plant instrumentation also is discussed. A range of accident conditions from those within the design basis to the most severe accidents possible are included in the text. A method of gross estimation of accident source terms and their consequences off site is presented. 39 refs., 48 figs., 19 tabs.

  14. Emergency drinking water treatment during source water pollution accidents in China: origin analysis, framework and technologies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Xiao-Jian; Chen, Chao; Lin, Peng-Fei; Hou, Ai-Xin; Niu, Zhang-Bin; Wang, Jun

    2011-01-01

    China has suffered frequent source water contamination accidents in the past decade, which has resulted in severe consequences to the water supply of millions of residents. The origins of typical cases of contamination are discussed in this paper as well as the emergency response to these accidents. In general, excessive pursuit of rapid industrialization and the unreasonable location of factories are responsible for the increasing frequency of accidental pollution events. Moreover, insufficient attention to environmental protection and rudimentary emergency response capability has exacerbated the consequences of such accidents. These environmental accidents triggered or accelerated the promulgation of stricter environmental protection policy and the shift from economic development mode to a more sustainable direction, which should be regarded as the turning point of environmental protection in China. To guarantee water security, China is trying to establish a rapid and effective emergency response framework, build up the capability of early accident detection, and develop efficient technologies to remove contaminants from water.

  15. Intractable Tangles in the Bird Family Tree.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Roland G

    2015-08-01

    Rapid sequential speciation events can outpace the fixation of genetic variants, resulting in a family tree that lacks clear branching patterns. A new study of bird genomes reveals such an explosive super-radiation that may coincide with the mass extinction at the end of the Cretaceous period. PMID:26284616

  16. Identification of severe accident uncertainties

    SciTech Connect

    Rivard, J.B.; Behr, V.L.; Easterling, R.G.; Griesmeyer, J.M.; Haskin, F.E.; Hatch, S.W.; Kolaczkowski, A.M.; Lipinski, R.J.; Sherman, M.P.; Taig, A.R.

    1984-09-01

    Understanding of severe accidents in light-water reactors is currently beset with uncertainty. Because the uncertainties that are present limit the capability to analyze the progression and possible consequences of such accidents, they restrict the technical basis for regulatory actions by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). It is thus necessary to attempt to identify the sources and quantify the influence of these uncertainties. As a part of ongoing NRC severe-accident programs at Sandia National Laboratories, a working group was formed to pool relevant knowledge and experience in assessing the uncertainties attending present (1983) knowledge of severe accidents. This initial report of the Severe Accident Uncertainty Analysis (SAUNA) working group has as its main goal the identification of a consolidated list of uncertainties that affect in-plant processes and systems. Many uncertainties have been identified. A set of key uncertainties summarizes many of the identified uncertainties. Quantification of the influence of these uncertainties, a necessary second step, is not attempted in the present report, although attempts are made qualitatively to demonstrate the relevance of the identified uncertainties.

  17. Thyroid consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Pacini, F; Vorontsova, T; Molinaro, E; Shavrova, E; Agate, L; Kuchinskaya, E; Elisei, R; Demidchik, E P; Pinchera, A

    1999-12-01

    It is well recognized that the use of external irradiation of the head and neck to treat patients with various non-thyroid disorders increases their risk of developing papillary thyroid carcinoma years after radiation exposure. An increased risk of thyroid cancer has also been reported in survivors of the atomic bombs in Japan, as well as in Marshall Island residents exposed to radiation during the testing of hydrogen bombs. More recently, exposure to radioactive fallout as a result of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident has clearly caused an enormous increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid carcinoma in Belarus, Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, in the Russian Federation, starting in 1990. When clinical and epidemiological features of thyroid carcinomas diagnosed in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident are compared with those of naturally occurring thyroid carcinomas in patients of the same age group in Italy and France, it becomes apparent that the post-Chernobyl thyroid carcinomas were much less influenced by gender, virtually always papillary (solid and follicular variants), more aggressive at presentation and more frequently associated with thyroid autoimmunity. Gene mutations involving the RET proto-oncogene, and less frequently TRK, have been shown to be causative events specific for papillary cancer. RET activation was found in nearly 70% of the patients who developed papillary thyroid carcinomas following the Chernobyl accident. In addition to thyroid cancer, radiation-induced thyroid diseases include benign thyroid nodules, hypothyroidism and autoimmune thyroiditis, with or without thyroid insufficiency, as observed in populations after environmental exposure to radioisotopes of iodine and in the survivors of atomic bomb explosions. On this basis, the authors evaluated thyroid autoimmune phenomena in normal children exposed to radiation after the Chernobyl accident. The results demonstrated an increased prevalence of circulating thyroid

  18. Thyroid consequences of the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Pacini, F; Vorontsova, T; Molinaro, E; Shavrova, E; Agate, L; Kuchinskaya, E; Elisei, R; Demidchik, E P; Pinchera, A

    1999-12-01

    It is well recognized that the use of external irradiation of the head and neck to treat patients with various non-thyroid disorders increases their risk of developing papillary thyroid carcinoma years after radiation exposure. An increased risk of thyroid cancer has also been reported in survivors of the atomic bombs in Japan, as well as in Marshall Island residents exposed to radiation during the testing of hydrogen bombs. More recently, exposure to radioactive fallout as a result of the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident has clearly caused an enormous increase in the incidence of childhood thyroid carcinoma in Belarus, Ukraine, and, to a lesser extent, in the Russian Federation, starting in 1990. When clinical and epidemiological features of thyroid carcinomas diagnosed in Belarus after the Chernobyl accident are compared with those of naturally occurring thyroid carcinomas in patients of the same age group in Italy and France, it becomes apparent that the post-Chernobyl thyroid carcinomas were much less influenced by gender, virtually always papillary (solid and follicular variants), more aggressive at presentation and more frequently associated with thyroid autoimmunity. Gene mutations involving the RET proto-oncogene, and less frequently TRK, have been shown to be causative events specific for papillary cancer. RET activation was found in nearly 70% of the patients who developed papillary thyroid carcinomas following the Chernobyl accident. In addition to thyroid cancer, radiation-induced thyroid diseases include benign thyroid nodules, hypothyroidism and autoimmune thyroiditis, with or without thyroid insufficiency, as observed in populations after environmental exposure to radioisotopes of iodine and in the survivors of atomic bomb explosions. On this basis, the authors evaluated thyroid autoimmune phenomena in normal children exposed to radiation after the Chernobyl accident. The results demonstrated an increased prevalence of circulating thyroid

  19. INDUSTRIAL/MILITARY ACTIVITY-INITIATED ACCIDENT SCREENING ANALYSIS

    SciTech Connect

    D.A. Kalinich

    1999-09-27

    Impacts due to nearby installations and operations were determined in the Preliminary MGDS Hazards Analysis (CRWMS M&O 1996) to be potentially applicable to the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. This determination was conservatively based on limited knowledge of the potential activities ongoing on or off the Nevada Test Site (NTS). It is intended that the Industrial/Military Activity-Initiated Accident Screening Analysis provided herein will meet the requirements of the ''Standard Review Plan for the Review of Safety Analysis Reports for Nuclear Power Plants'' (NRC 1987) in establishing whether this external event can be screened from further consideration or must be included as a design basis event (DBE) in the development of accident scenarios for the Monitored Geologic Repository (MGR). This analysis only considers issues related to preclosure radiological safety. Issues important to waste isolation as related to impact from nearby installations will be covered in the MGR performance assessment.

  20. Equipment failures and their contribution to industrial incidents and accidents in the manufacturing industry.

    PubMed

    Bourassa, Dominic; Gauthier, François; Abdul-Nour, Georges

    2016-01-01

    Accidental events in manufacturing industries can be caused by many factors, including work methods, lack of training, equipment design, maintenance and reliability. This study is aimed at determining the contribution of failures of commonly used industrial equipment, such as machines, tools and material handling equipment, to the chain of causality of industrial accidents and incidents. Based on a case study which aimed at the analysis of an existing pulp and paper company's accident database, this paper examines the number, type and gravity of the failures involved in these events and their causes. Results from this study show that equipment failures had a major effect on the number and severity of accidents accounted for in the database: 272 out of 773 accidental events were related to equipment failure, where 13 of them had direct human consequences. Failures that contributed directly or indirectly to these events are analyzed.

  1. Cerebrovascular accident under anesthesia during dental surgery.

    PubMed

    Cooke, Mathew; Cuddy, Michael A; Farr, Brad; Moore, Paul A

    2014-01-01

    Stroke, or cerebrovascular accident (CVA), is a medical emergency that may lead to permanent neurological damage, complications, and death. The rapid loss of brain function due to disruption of the blood supply to the brain is caused by blockage (thrombosis, arterial embolism) or hemorrhage. The incidence of CVA during anesthesia for noncardiac nonvascular surgery is as high as 1% depending on risk factors. Comprehensive preoperative assessment and good perioperative management may prevent a CVA. However, should an ischemic event occur, appropriate and rapid management is necessary to minimize the deleterious effects caused to the patient. This case report describes a patient who had an ischemic CVA while under general anesthesia for dental alveolar surgery and discusses the anesthesia management.

  2. Efficient Exploration of the Space of Reconciled Gene Trees

    PubMed Central

    Szöllősi, Gergely J.; Rosikiewicz, Wojciech; Boussau, Bastien; Tannier, Eric; Daubin, Vincent

    2013-01-01

    Gene trees record the combination of gene-level events, such as duplication, transfer and loss (DTL), and species-level events, such as speciation and extinction. Gene tree–species tree reconciliation methods model these processes by drawing gene trees into the species tree using a series of gene and species-level events. The reconstruction of gene trees based on sequence alone almost always involves choosing between statistically equivalent or weakly distinguishable relationships that could be much better resolved based on a putative species tree. To exploit this potential for accurate reconstruction of gene trees, the space of reconciled gene trees must be explored according to a joint model of sequence evolution and gene tree–species tree reconciliation. Here we present amalgamated likelihood estimation (ALE), a probabilistic approach to exhaustively explore all reconciled gene trees that can be amalgamated as a combination of clades observed in a sample of gene trees. We implement the ALE approach in the context of a reconciliation model (Szöllősi et al. 2013), which allows for the DTL of genes. We use ALE to efficiently approximate the sum of the joint likelihood over amalgamations and to find the reconciled gene tree that maximizes the joint likelihood among all such trees. We demonstrate using simulations that gene trees reconstructed using the joint likelihood are substantially more accurate than those reconstructed using sequence alone. Using realistic gene tree topologies, branch lengths, and alignment sizes, we demonstrate that ALE produces more accurate gene trees even if the model of sequence evolution is greatly simplified. Finally, examining 1099 gene families from 36 cyanobacterial genomes we find that joint likelihood-based inference results in a striking reduction in apparent phylogenetic discord, with respectively. 24%, 59%, and 46% reductions in the mean numbers of duplications, transfers, and losses per gene family. The open source

  3. Growth cessation uncouples isotopic signals in leaves and tree rings of drought-exposed oak trees.

    PubMed

    Pflug, Ellen E; Siegwolf, R; Buchmann, N; Dobbertin, M; Kuster, T M; Günthardt-Goerg, M S; Arend, M

    2015-10-01

    An increase in temperature along with a decrease in summer precipitation in Central Europe will result in an increased frequency of drought events and gradually lead to a change in species composition in forest ecosystems. In the present study, young oaks (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) were transplanted into large mesocosms and exposed for 3 years to experimental warming and a drought treatment with yearly increasing intensities. Carbon and oxygen isotopic (δ(13)C and δ(18)O) patterns were analysed in leaf tissue and tree-ring cellulose and linked to leaf physiological measures and tree-ring growth. Warming had no effect on the isotopic patterns in leaves and tree rings, while drought increased δ(18)O and δ(13)C. Under severe drought, an unexpected isotopic pattern, with a decrease in δ(18)O, was observed in tree rings but not in leaves. This decrease in δ(18)O could not be explained by concurrent physiological analyses and is not supported by current physiological knowledge. Analysis of intra-annual tree-ring growth revealed a drought-induced growth cessation that interfered with the record of isotopic signals imprinted on recently formed leaf carbohydrates. This missing record indicates isotopic uncoupling of leaves and tree rings, which may have serious implications for the interpretation of tree-ring isotopes, particularly from trees that experienced growth-limiting stresses. PMID:26377873

  4. Growth cessation uncouples isotopic signals in leaves and tree rings of drought-exposed oak trees.

    PubMed

    Pflug, Ellen E; Siegwolf, R; Buchmann, N; Dobbertin, M; Kuster, T M; Günthardt-Goerg, M S; Arend, M

    2015-10-01

    An increase in temperature along with a decrease in summer precipitation in Central Europe will result in an increased frequency of drought events and gradually lead to a change in species composition in forest ecosystems. In the present study, young oaks (Quercus robur L. and Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) were transplanted into large mesocosms and exposed for 3 years to experimental warming and a drought treatment with yearly increasing intensities. Carbon and oxygen isotopic (δ(13)C and δ(18)O) patterns were analysed in leaf tissue and tree-ring cellulose and linked to leaf physiological measures and tree-ring growth. Warming had no effect on the isotopic patterns in leaves and tree rings, while drought increased δ(18)O and δ(13)C. Under severe drought, an unexpected isotopic pattern, with a decrease in δ(18)O, was observed in tree rings but not in leaves. This decrease in δ(18)O could not be explained by concurrent physiological analyses and is not supported by current physiological knowledge. Analysis of intra-annual tree-ring growth revealed a drought-induced growth cessation that interfered with the record of isotopic signals imprinted on recently formed leaf carbohydrates. This missing record indicates isotopic uncoupling of leaves and tree rings, which may have serious implications for the interpretation of tree-ring isotopes, particularly from trees that experienced growth-limiting stresses.

  5. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    SciTech Connect

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T.; Cliff Po, L.C.

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  6. The child accident repeater: a review.

    PubMed

    Jones, J G

    1980-04-01

    The child accident repeater is defined as one who has at least three accidents that come to medical attention within a year. The accident situation has features in common with those of the child who has a single accident through simple "bad luck", but other factors predispose him to repeated injury. In the child who has a susceptible personality, a tendency for accident repetition may be due to a breakdown in adjustment to a stressful environment. Prevention of repeat accidents should involve the usual measures considered appropriate for all children as well as an attempt to provide treatment of significant maladjustment and modification of a stressful environment.

  7. [Myocardial infarction as work-related accident: medical and legal problems].

    PubMed

    Szozda, Ryszard; Procek, Marek

    2002-01-01

    An accident is a work-related event caused by an external factor. Therefore, myocardial infarction is also considered, in specific conditions, as a work-related accident. The aim of this study was to present the cause-effect relationship between myocardial infarction and working conditions in the context of a work-related accident characterized by: urgency of event, external factor and relation with working conditions. The attitude of the Supreme Court to the question of certification, highlighting the key issues and facilitating the understanding of the problem and opinions of legal experts on this matter is also discussed. Myocardial infarction as a work-related accident is an issue involving both law and medicine, particularly occupational medicine, that will have to tackle and solve this problem in its several dimensions, including periodical examinations.

  8. The Accident Sequence Precursor program: Methods improvements and current results

    SciTech Connect

    Minarick, J.W.; Manning, F.M.; Harris, J.D.

    1987-01-01

    Changes in the US NRC Accident Sequence Precursor program methods since the initial program evaluations of 1969-81 operational events are described, along with insights from the review of 1984-85 events. For 1984-85, the number of significant precursors was consistent with the number observed in 1980-81, dominant sequences associated with significant events were reasonably consistent with PRA estimates for BWRs, but lacked the contribution due to small-break LOCAs previously observed and predicted in PWRs, and the frequency of initiating events and non-recoverable system failures exhibited some reduction compared to 1980-81. Operational events which provide information concerning additional PRA modeling needs are also described.

  9. Genetic implications and health consequences following the Chernobyl nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Kozenko, M; Chudley, A E

    2010-03-01

    It has been almost 25 years since the Chernobyl nuclear accident in Ukraine. We review relevant data derived from published reports originating in the Former Soviet Union. We cite census data from Ukraine and research studies from Western Europe that analyzed the effect of radiation on genetics and health outcome in the exposed populations. We also present philatelic materials that pictorially captured that fateful event in history.

  10. Investigation of the Challenger Accident

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1986-01-01

    The work of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger Accident (hereafter referred to as the Rogers Commission) and the work of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration in investigating the causes of the accident were reviewed. In addition to reviewing the five volumes of the Rogers Commission, the entire direct on-line Rogers Commission data base, which included full-text and document retrieval capability was also reviewed. The findings and recommendations contained also include materials submitted for the record, staff investigations, interviews, and trips.

  11. [Diving accidents. Emergency treatment of serious diving accidents].

    PubMed

    Schröder, S; Lier, H; Wiese, S

    2004-11-01

    Decompression injuries are potentially life-threatening incidents mainly due to a rapid decline in ambient pressure. Decompression illness (DCI) results from the presence of gas bubbles in the blood and tissue. DCI may be classified as decompression sickness (DCS) generated from the liberation of gas bubbles following an oversaturation of tissues with inert gas and arterial gas embolism (AGE) mainly due to pulmonary barotrauma. People working under hyperbaric pressure, e.g. in a caisson for general construction under water, and scuba divers are exposed to certain risks. Diving accidents can be fatal and are often characterized by organ dysfunction, especially neurological deficits. They have become comparatively rare among professional divers and workers. However, since recreational scuba diving is gaining more and more popularity there is an increasing likelihood of severe diving accidents. Thus, emergency staff working close to areas with a high scuba diving activity, e.g. lakes or rivers, may be called more frequently to a scuba diving accident. The correct and professional emergency treatment on site, especially the immediate and continuous administration of normobaric oxygen, is decisive for the outcome of the accident victim. The definitive treatment includes rapid recompression with hyperbaric oxygen. The value of adjunctive medication, however, remains controversial.

  12. Distribution of Causes in Selected US Aviation Accident Reports Between 1996 and 2003

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2004-01-01

    This paper describes the results of an independent analysis of the probable and contributory causes of selected aviation accidents in the United States between 1996 and 2003. The purpose of the study was to assess the comparative frequency of a variety of causal factors in the reporting of these adverse events. Although our results show that more of these high consequence accidents were attributed to human error than to any other single factor, a large number of reports also mentioned wider systemic issues, including the managerial and regulatory context of aviation operations. These wider issues are more likely to appear as contributory rather than primary causes in this set of accident reports.

  13. Species integrity in trees.

    PubMed

    Ortiz-Barrientos, Daniel; Baack, Eric J

    2014-09-01

    From California sequoia, to Australian eucalyptus, to the outstanding diversity of Amazonian forests, trees are fundamental to many processes in ecology and evolution. Trees define the communities that they inhabit, are host to a multiplicity of other organisms and can determine the ecological dynamics of other plants and animals. Trees are also at the heart of major patterns of biodiversity such as the latitudinal gradient of species diversity and thus are important systems for studying the origin of new plant species. Although the role of trees in community assembly and ecological succession is partially understood, the origin of tree diversity remains largely opaque. For instance, the relative importance of differing habitats and phenologies as barriers to hybridization between closely related species is still largely uncharacterized in trees. Consequently, we know very little about the origin of trees species and their integrity. Similarly, studies on the interplay between speciation and tree community assembly are in their infancy and so are studies on how processes like forest maturation modifies the context in which reproductive isolation evolves. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Lindtke et al. (2014) and Lagache et al. (2014) overcome some traditional difficulties in studying mating systems and sexual isolation in the iconic oaks and poplars, providing novel insights about the integrity of tree species and on how ecology leads to variation in selection on reproductive isolation over time and space. PMID:25155715

  14. 49 CFR 230.22 - Accident reports.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... Requirements § 230.22 Accident reports. In the case of an accident due to failure, from any cause, of a steam locomotive boiler or any part or appurtenance thereof, resulting in serious injury or death to one or...

  15. Accident investigation of the electrical shock incident at the PG and E PVUSA site Davis, California

    SciTech Connect

    Jacobson, L.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Garrett, J.O.; Tyler, R.

    1992-02-01

    This report summarizes the findings of the Accident Investigation Team (Team) assembled in response to a request from Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG and E) to the US Department of Energy (DOE) to understand the events surrounding the electric shock of a worker at the PVUSA site in Davis, California and to provide recommendations to prevent such events from recurring. The report gives complete details on the sequence of events surrounding the accident and identifies 27 facts related to accident itself. Four technical deficiencies in the electrical systems which require further investigation were identified. The Team believes that the root cause of this accident was related to the absence of a proactive organizational entity responsible for overall health and safety on the site. Two contributing factors were identified. First, the prototype nature and associated operational difficulties of the electrical inverter resulted in large maintenance demands. Second, several of the injured employee`s co-workers noted that he occasionally failed to use appropriate personal protective equipment, but they never reported this practice to management. The direct cause of this accident was the failure of the injured employee to wear appropriate personal protective equipment (i.e., rubber gloves). Based on the review of the facts established in this investigation, five recommendations are presented to the funding agencies to reduce the possibility of future accidents at the PVUSA site.

  16. Analysis of Three Mile Island-Unit 2 accident

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1980-03-01

    The Nuclear Safety Analysis Center (NSAC) of the Electric Power Research Institute has analyzed the Three Mile Island-2 accident. Early results of this analysis were a brief narrative summary, issued in mid-May 1979 and an initial version of this report issued later in 1979 as noted in the Foreword. The present report is a revised version of the 1979 report, containing summaries, a highly detailed sequence of events, a comparison of that sequence of events with those from other sources, 25 appendices, references and a list of abbreviations and acronyms. A matrix of equipment and system actions is included as a folded insert.

  17. Delta launch vehicle accident investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1986-03-01

    The text of the testimony given by several witnesses during the House hearings on the Delta launch vehicle accident of May 3, 1986 is given. Pre-launch procedures, failure analysis, the possibility of sabotage, and design and testing are among the topics discussed.

  18. Determinants of injuries in passenger vessel accidents.

    PubMed

    Yip, Tsz Leung; Jin, Di; Talley, Wayne K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates determinants of crew and passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Crew and passenger injury equations are estimated for ferry, ocean cruise, and river cruise vessel accidents, utilizing detailed data of individual vessel accidents that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard during the time period 2001-2008. The estimation results provide empirical evidence (for the first time in the literature) that crew injuries are determinants of passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents.

  19. Determinants of injuries in passenger vessel accidents.

    PubMed

    Yip, Tsz Leung; Jin, Di; Talley, Wayne K

    2015-09-01

    This paper investigates determinants of crew and passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. Crew and passenger injury equations are estimated for ferry, ocean cruise, and river cruise vessel accidents, utilizing detailed data of individual vessel accidents that were investigated by the U.S. Coast Guard during the time period 2001-2008. The estimation results provide empirical evidence (for the first time in the literature) that crew injuries are determinants of passenger injuries in passenger vessel accidents. PMID:26070017

  20. An evaluation of spindle-shaft seizure accident sequences for the Schenck Dynamic Balancer

    SciTech Connect

    Bott, T.F.; Fischer, S.R.

    1998-11-01

    This study was conducted at the request of the USDOE/AL Dynamic Balancer Project Team to develop a set of representative accident sequences initiated by rapid seizure of the spindle shaft of the Schenck dynamic balancing machine used in the mass properties testing activities in Bay 12-60 at the Pantex Plant. This Balancer is used for balancing reentry vehicles. In addition, the study identified potential causes of possible spindle-shaft seizure leading to a rapid deceleration of the rotating assembly. These accident sequences extend to the point that the reentry vehicle either remains in stable condition on the balancing machine or leaves the machine with some translational and rotational motion. Fault-tree analysis was used to identify possible causes of spindle-shaft seizure, and failure modes and effects analysis identified the results of shearing of different machine components. Cause-consequence diagrams were used to help develop accident sequences resulting from the possible effects of spindle-shaft seizure. To make these accident sequences physically reasonable, the analysts used idealized models of the dynamics of rotating masses. Idealized physical modeling also was used to provide approximate values of accident parameters that lead to branching down different accident progression paths. The exacerbating conditions of balancing machine over-speed and improper assembly of the fixture to the face plate are also addressed.

  1. NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patlach, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Manned space flight is risky business. Accidents have occurred and may occur in the future. NASA's manned space flight programs, with all their successes, have had three fatal accidents, one at the launch pad and two in flight. The Apollo fire and the Challenger and Columbia accidents resulted in a loss of seventeen crewmembers. Russia's manned space flight programs have had three fatal accidents, one ground-based and two in flight. These accidents resulted in the loss of five crewmembers. Additionally, manned spacecraft have encountered numerous close calls with potential for disaster. The NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Safety Office has documented more than 70 spacecraft incidents, many of which could have become serious accidents. At the Johnson Space Center (JSC), medical contingency personnel are assigned to a Mishap Investigation Team. The team deploys to the accident site to gather and preserve evidence for the Accident Investigation Board. The JSC Medical Operations Branch has developed a flight surgeon accident response training class to capture the lessons learned from the Columbia accident. This presentation will address the NASA Mishap Investigation Team's medical objectives, planned response, and potential issues that could arise subsequent to a manned spacecraft accident. Educational Objectives are to understand the medical objectives and issues confronting the Mishap Investigation Team medical personnel subsequent to a human space flight accident.

  2. 48 CFR 836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 5 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 836... prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 852.236-87, Accident Prevention, in solicitations and contracts for construction that contain the clause at FAR 52.236-13, Accident Prevention....

  3. 48 CFR 636.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 636... CONTRACTING CONSTRUCTION AND ARCHITECT-ENGINEER CONTRACTS Contract Clauses 636.513 Accident prevention. (a) In... contracting activities shall insert DOSAR 652.236-70, Accident Prevention, in lieu of FAR clause...

  4. 48 CFR 1836.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 6 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 true Accident prevention. 1836... 1836.513 Accident prevention. The contracting officer must insert the clause at 1852.223-70, Safety and Health, in lieu of FAR clause 52.236-13, Accident Prevention, and its Alternate I....

  5. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Repetitious accidents. 301.106 Section 301.106 Judicial Administration FEDERAL PRISON INDUSTRIES, INC., DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INMATE ACCIDENT COMPENSATION General § 301.106 Repetitious accidents. If an inmate worker is involved in successive...

  6. 28 CFR 301.106 - Repetitious accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 28 Judicial Administration 2 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Repetitious accidents. 301.106 Section 301.106 Judicial Administration FEDERAL PRISON INDUSTRIES, INC., DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE INMATE ACCIDENT COMPENSATION General § 301.106 Repetitious accidents. If an inmate worker is involved in successive...

  7. The Flame Tree

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Richard

    2004-01-01

    Lewis's own experiences living in Indonesia are fertile ground for telling "a ripping good story," one found in "The Flame Tree." He hopes people will enjoy the tale and appreciate the differences of an unfamiliar culture. The excerpt from "The Flame Tree" will reel readers in quickly.

  8. CSI for Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rubino, Darrin L.; Hanson, Deborah

    2009-01-01

    The circles and patterns in a tree's stem tell a story, but that story can be a mystery. Interpreting the story of tree rings provides a way to heighten the natural curiosity of students and help them gain insight into the interaction of elements in the environment. It also represents a wonderful opportunity to incorporate the nature of science.…

  9. Trees Are Terrific!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Braus, Judy, Ed.

    1992-01-01

    Ranger Rick's NatureScope is a creative education series dedicated to inspiring in children an understanding and appreciation of the natural world while developing the skills they will need to make responsible decisions about the environment. Contents are organized into the following sections: (1) "What Makes a Tree a Tree?," including information…

  10. Tree Topology Estimation.

    PubMed

    Estrada, Rolando; Tomasi, Carlo; Schmidler, Scott C; Farsiu, Sina

    2015-08-01

    Tree-like structures are fundamental in nature, and it is often useful to reconstruct the topology of a tree - what connects to what - from a two-dimensional image of it. However, the projected branches often cross in the image: the tree projects to a planar graph, and the inverse problem of reconstructing the topology of the tree from that of the graph is ill-posed. We regularize this problem with a generative, parametric tree-growth model. Under this model, reconstruction is possible in linear time if one knows the direction of each edge in the graph - which edge endpoint is closer to the root of the tree - but becomes NP-hard if the directions are not known. For the latter case, we present a heuristic search algorithm to estimate the most likely topology of a rooted, three-dimensional tree from a single two-dimensional image. Experimental results on retinal vessel, plant root, and synthetic tree data sets show that our methodology is both accurate and efficient. PMID:26353004

  11. Tree nut oils

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The major tree nuts include almonds, Brazil nuts, cashew nuts, hazelnuts, macadamia nuts, pecans, pine nuts, pistachio nuts, and walnuts. Tree nut oils are appreciated in food applications because of their flavors and are generally more expensive than other gourmet oils. Research during the last de...

  12. Trees for Mother Earth.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greer, Sandy

    1993-01-01

    Describes Trees for Mother Earth, a program in which secondary students raise funds to buy fruit trees to plant during visits to the Navajo Reservation. Benefits include developing feelings of self-worth among participants, promoting cultural exchange and understanding, and encouraging self-sufficiency among the Navajo. (LP)

  13. Structural Equation Model Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brandmaier, Andreas M.; von Oertzen, Timo; McArdle, John J.; Lindenberger, Ulman

    2013-01-01

    In the behavioral and social sciences, structural equation models (SEMs) have become widely accepted as a modeling tool for the relation between latent and observed variables. SEMs can be seen as a unification of several multivariate analysis techniques. SEM Trees combine the strengths of SEMs and the decision tree paradigm by building tree…

  14. The Fault Tree Compiler (FTC): Program and mathematics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butler, Ricky W.; Martensen, Anna L.

    1989-01-01

    The Fault Tree Compiler Program is a new reliability tool used to predict the top-event probability for a fault tree. Five different gate types are allowed in the fault tree: AND, OR, EXCLUSIVE OR, INVERT, AND m OF n gates. The high-level input language is easy to understand and use when describing the system tree. In addition, the use of the hierarchical fault tree capability can simplify the tree description and decrease program execution time. The current solution technique provides an answer precisely (within the limits of double precision floating point arithmetic) within a user specified number of digits accuracy. The user may vary one failure rate or failure probability over a range of values and plot the results for sensitivity analyses. The solution technique is implemented in FORTRAN; the remaining program code is implemented in Pascal. The program is written to run on a Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC) VAX computer with the VMS operation system.

  15. Response of HEPA filters to simulated-accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Gregory, W.S.; Martin, R.A.; Smith, P.R.; Fenton, D.E.

    1982-01-01

    High-efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters have been subjected to simulated accident conditions to determine their response to abnormal operating events. Both domestic and European standard and high-capacity filters have been evaluated to determine their response to simulated fire, explosion, and tornado conditions. The HEPA filter structural limitations for tornado and explosive loadings are discussed. In addition, filtration efficiencies during these accident conditions are reported for the first time. Our data indicate efficiencies between 80% and 90% for shock loadings below the structural limit level. We describe two types of testing for ineffective filtration - clean filters exposed to pulse-entrained aerosol and dirty filters exposed to tornado and shock pulses. Efficiency and material loss data are described. Also, the resonse of standard HEPA filters to simulated fire conditions is presented. We describe a unique method of measuring accumulated combustion products on the filter. Additionally, data relating to pressure drop vs accumulated mass during plugging are reported for simulated combustion aerosols. The effects of concentration and moisture levels on filter plugging were evaluated. We are obtaining all of the above data so that mathematical models can be developed for fire, explosion, and tornado accident analysis computer codes. These computer codes can be used to assess the response of nuclear air cleaning systems to accident conditions.

  16. An operational centre for managing major chemical industrial accidents.

    PubMed

    Kiranoudis, C T; Kourniotis, S P; Christolis, M; Markatos, N C; Zografos, K G; Giannouli, I M; Androutsopoulos, K N; Ziomas, I; Kosmidis, E; Simeonidis, P; Poupkou, N

    2002-01-28

    The most important characteristic of major chemical accidents, from a societal perspective, is their tendency to produce off-site effects. The extent and severity of the accident may significantly affect the population and the environment of the adjacent areas. Following an accident event, effort should be made to limit such effects. Management decisions should be based on rational and quantitative information based on the site specific circumstances and the possible consequences. To produce such information we have developed an operational centre for managing large-scale industrial accidents. Its architecture involves an integrated framework of geographical information system (GIS) and RDBMS technology systems equipped with interactive communication capabilities. The operational centre was developed for Windows 98 platforms, for the region of Thriasion Pedion of West Attica, where the concentration of industrial activity and storage of toxic chemical is immense within areas of high population density. An appropriate case study is given in order to illuminate the use and necessity of the operational centre. PMID:11744201

  17. Consequences and countermeasures in a nuclear power accident: Chernobyl experience.

    PubMed

    Kirichenko, Vladimir A; Kirichenko, Alexander V; Werts, Day E

    2012-09-01

    Despite the tragic accidents in Fukushima and Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry will continue to contribute to the production of electric energy worldwide until there are efficient and sustainable alternative sources of energy. The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred 26 years ago in the former Soviet Union, released an immense amount of radioactivity over vast territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation, extending into northern Europe, and became the most severe accident in the history of the nuclear industry. This disaster was a result of numerous factors including inadequate nuclear power plant design, human errors, and violation of safety measures. The lessons learned from nuclear accidents will continue to strengthen the safety design of new reactor installations, but with more than 400 active nuclear power stations worldwide and 104 reactors in the Unites States, it is essential to reassess fundamental issues related to the Chernobyl experience as it continues to evolve. This article summarizes early and late events of the incident, the impact on thyroid health, and attempts to reduce agricultural radioactive contamination.

  18. Consequences and countermeasures in a nuclear power accident: Chernobyl experience.

    PubMed

    Kirichenko, Vladimir A; Kirichenko, Alexander V; Werts, Day E

    2012-09-01

    Despite the tragic accidents in Fukushima and Chernobyl, the nuclear power industry will continue to contribute to the production of electric energy worldwide until there are efficient and sustainable alternative sources of energy. The Chernobyl nuclear accident, which occurred 26 years ago in the former Soviet Union, released an immense amount of radioactivity over vast territories of Belarus, Ukraine, and the Russian Federation, extending into northern Europe, and became the most severe accident in the history of the nuclear industry. This disaster was a result of numerous factors including inadequate nuclear power plant design, human errors, and violation of safety measures. The lessons learned from nuclear accidents will continue to strengthen the safety design of new reactor installations, but with more than 400 active nuclear power stations worldwide and 104 reactors in the Unites States, it is essential to reassess fundamental issues related to the Chernobyl experience as it continues to evolve. This article summarizes early and late events of the incident, the impact on thyroid health, and attempts to reduce agricultural radioactive contamination. PMID:22853775

  19. The tree of eukaryotes.

    PubMed

    Keeling, Patrick J; Burger, Gertraud; Durnford, Dion G; Lang, B Franz; Lee, Robert W; Pearlman, Ronald E; Roger, Andrew J; Gray, Michael W

    2005-12-01

    Recent advances in resolving the tree of eukaryotes are converging on a model composed of a few large hypothetical 'supergroups', each comprising a diversity of primarily microbial eukaryotes (protists, or protozoa and algae). The process of resolving the tree involves the synthesis of many kinds of data, including single-gene trees, multigene analyses, and other kinds of molecular and structural characters. Here, we review the recent progress in assembling the tree of eukaryotes, describing the major evidence for each supergroup, and where gaps in our knowledge remain. We also consider other factors emerging from phylogenetic analyses and comparative genomics, in particular lateral gene transfer, and whether such factors confound our understanding of the eukaryotic tree.

  20. From Family Trees to Decision Trees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Trobian, Helen R.

    This paper is a preliminary inquiry by a non-mathematician into graphic methods of sequential planning and ways in which hierarchical analysis and tree structures can be helpful in developing interest in the use of mathematical modeling in the search for creative solutions to real-life problems. Highlights include a discussion of hierarchical…

  1. Solar extreme events

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hudson, Hugh S.

    2015-08-01

    Solar flares and CMEs have a broad range of magnitudes. This review discusses the possibility of “extreme events,” defined as those with magnitudes greater than have been seen in the existing historical record. For most quantitative measures, this direct information does not extend more than a century and a half into the recent past. The magnitude distributions (occurrence frequencies) of solar events (flares/CMEs) typically decrease with the parameter measured or inferred (peak flux, mass, energy etc. Flare radiation fluxes tend to follow a power law slightly flatter than S-2, where S represents a peak flux; solar particle events (SPEs) follow a still flatter power law up to a limiting magnitude, and then appear to roll over to a steeper distribution, which may take an exponential form or follow a broken power law. This inference comes from the terrestrial 14C record and from the depth dependence of various radioisotope proxies in the lunar regolith and in meteorites. Recently major new observational results have impacted our use of the relatively limited historical record in new ways: the detection of actual events in the 14C tree-ring records, and the systematic observations of flares and “superflares” by the Kepler spacecraft. I discuss how these new findings may affect our understanding of the distribution function expected for extreme solar events.

  2. Analysis of occupational accidents: prevention through the use of additional technical safety measures for machinery

    PubMed Central

    Dźwiarek, Marek; Latała, Agata

    2016-01-01

    This article presents an analysis of results of 1035 serious and 341 minor accidents recorded by Poland's National Labour Inspectorate (PIP) in 2005–2011, in view of their prevention by means of additional safety measures applied by machinery users. Since the analysis aimed at formulating principles for the application of technical safety measures, the analysed accidents should bear additional attributes: the type of machine operation, technical safety measures and the type of events causing injuries. The analysis proved that the executed tasks and injury-causing events were closely connected and there was a relation between casualty events and technical safety measures. In the case of tasks consisting of manual feeding and collecting materials, the injuries usually occur because of the rotating motion of tools or crushing due to a closing motion. Numerous accidents also happened in the course of supporting actions, like removing pollutants, correcting material position, cleaning, etc. PMID:26652689

  3. Direct evaluation of fault trees using object-oriented programming techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

    1989-01-01

    Object-oriented programming techniques are used in an algorithm for the direct evaluation of fault trees. The algorithm combines a simple bottom-up procedure for trees without repeated events with a top-down recursive procedure for trees with repeated events. The object-oriented approach results in a dynamic modularization of the tree at each step in the reduction process. The algorithm reduces the number of recursive calls required to solve trees with repeated events and calculates intermediate results as well as the solution of the top event. The intermediate results can be reused if part of the tree is modified. An example is presented in which the results of the algorithm implemented with conventional techniques are compared to those of the object-oriented approach.

  4. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2016-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilot's taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that, rather than events following the pilot's switch to direct control, it was the events preceding the switch that led to the accident. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  5. Medical management principles for radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; van Beuningen, Dirk; Sohns, Torsten; Fliedner, Theodor M

    2003-03-01

    The medical management of radiation accidents requires intensive planning and action. This article looks at the medical management of recent radiation accidents to derive principles for structuring and organizing the treatment of patients who may have radiation-induced health impairments. Although the radiation accidents in Tokai-mura, Japan and Lilo, Georgia were small-scale accidents, they illustrate important and characteristic symptoms and clinical developments. There are lessons to be learned and conclusions to be drawn for the military medical officers concerned with problems of medical management after radiation accidents.

  6. Phylogenetic trees in bioinformatics

    SciTech Connect

    Burr, Tom L

    2008-01-01

    Genetic data is often used to infer evolutionary relationships among a collection of viruses, bacteria, animal or plant species, or other operational taxonomic units (OTU). A phylogenetic tree depicts such relationships and provides a visual representation of the estimated branching order of the OTUs. Tree estimation is unique for several reasons, including: the types of data used to represent each OTU; the use ofprobabilistic nucleotide substitution models; the inference goals involving both tree topology and branch length, and the huge number of possible trees for a given sample of a very modest number of OTUs, which implies that fmding the best tree(s) to describe the genetic data for each OTU is computationally demanding. Bioinformatics is too large a field to review here. We focus on that aspect of bioinformatics that includes study of similarities in genetic data from multiple OTUs. Although research questions are diverse, a common underlying challenge is to estimate the evolutionary history of the OTUs. Therefore, this paper reviews the role of phylogenetic tree estimation in bioinformatics, available methods and software, and identifies areas for additional research and development.

  7. Lazy decision trees

    SciTech Connect

    Friedman, J.H.; Yun, Yeogirl; Kohavi, R.

    1996-12-31

    Lazy learning algorithms, exemplified by nearest-neighbor algorithms, do not induce a concise hypothesis from a given training set; the inductive process is delayed until a test instance is given. Algorithms for constructing decision trees, such as C4.5, ID3, and CART create a single {open_quotes}best{close_quotes} decision tree during the training phase, and this tree is then used to classify test instances. The tests at the nodes of the constructed tree are good on average, but there may be better tests for classifying a specific instance. We propose a lazy decision tree algorithm-LazyDT-that conceptually constructs the {open_quotes}best{close_quote} decision tree for each test instance. In practice, only a path needs to be constructed, and a caching scheme makes the algorithm fast. The algorithm is robust with respect to missing values without resorting to the complicated methods usually seen in induction of decision trees. Experiments on real and artificial problems are presented.

  8. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-12-15

    This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in these appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.

  9. Spallation Neutron Source Accident Terms for Environmental Impact Statement Input

    SciTech Connect

    Devore, J.R.; Harrington, R.M.

    1998-08-01

    This report is about accidents with the potential to release radioactive materials into the environment surrounding the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS). As shown in Chap. 2, the inventories of radioactivity at the SNS are dominated by the target facility. Source terms for a wide range of target facility accidents, from anticipated events to worst-case beyond-design-basis events, are provided in Chaps. 3 and 4. The most important criterion applied to these accident source terms is that they should not underestimate potential release. Therefore, conservative methodology was employed for the release estimates. Although the source terms are very conservative, excessive conservatism has been avoided by basing the releases on physical principles. Since it is envisioned that the SNS facility may eventually (after about 10 years) be expanded and modified to support a 4-MW proton beam operational capability, the source terms estimated in this report are applicable to a 4-MW operating proton beam power unless otherwise specified. This is bounding with regard to the 1-MW facility that will be built and operated initially. See further discussion below in Sect. 1.2.

  10. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    SciTech Connect

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models.

  11. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    PubMed

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry. PMID:22721539

  12. The Concept of Accident Proneness: A Review

    PubMed Central

    Froggatt, Peter; Smiley, James A.

    1964-01-01

    The term accident proneness was coined by psychological research workers in 1926. Since then its concept—that certain individuals are always more likely than others to sustain accidents, even though exposed to equal risk—has been questioned but seldom seriously challenged. This article describes much of the work and theory on which this concept is based, details the difficulties encountered in obtaining valid information and the interpretative errors that can arise from the examination of imperfect data, and explains why accident proneness became so readily accepted as an explanation of the facts. A recent hypothesis of accident causation, namely that a person's accident liability may vary from time to time, is outlined, and the respective abilities of this and of accident proneness to accord with data from the more reliable literature are examined. The authors conclude that the hypothesis of individual variation in liability is more realistic and in better agreement with the data than is accident proneness. PMID:14106130

  13. The gravity apple tree

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Espinosa Aldama, Mariana

    2015-04-01

    The gravity apple tree is a genealogical tree of the gravitation theories developed during the past century. The graphic representation is full of information such as guides in heuristic principles, names of main proponents, dates and references for original articles (See under Supplementary Data for the graphic representation). This visual presentation and its particular classification allows a quick synthetic view for a plurality of theories, many of them well validated in the Solar System domain. Its diachronic structure organizes information in a shape of a tree following similarities through a formal concept analysis. It can be used for educational purposes or as a tool for philosophical discussion.

  14. Learning classification trees

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buntine, Wray

    1991-01-01

    Algorithms for learning classification trees have had successes in artificial intelligence and statistics over many years. How a tree learning algorithm can be derived from Bayesian decision theory is outlined. This introduces Bayesian techniques for splitting, smoothing, and tree averaging. The splitting rule turns out to be similar to Quinlan's information gain splitting rule, while smoothing and averaging replace pruning. Comparative experiments with reimplementations of a minimum encoding approach, Quinlan's C4 and Breiman et al. Cart show the full Bayesian algorithm is consistently as good, or more accurate than these other approaches though at a computational price.

  15. Evolutionary tree reconstruction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cheeseman, Peter; Kanefsky, Bob

    1990-01-01

    It is described how Minimum Description Length (MDL) can be applied to the problem of DNA and protein evolutionary tree reconstruction. If there is a set of mutations that transform a common ancestor into a set of the known sequences, and this description is shorter than the information to encode the known sequences directly, then strong evidence for an evolutionary relationship has been found. A heuristic algorithm is described that searches for the simplest tree (smallest MDL) that finds close to optimal trees on the test data. Various ways of extending the MDL theory to more complex evolutionary relationships are discussed.

  16. Accident/Mishap Investigation System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

    2007-01-01

    InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

  17. Fatal accidents due to train surfing in Berlin.

    PubMed

    Strauch, H; Wirth, I; Geserick, G

    1998-06-01

    This study was undertaken for the purpose of analysing under the aspect of legal medicine, fatal accidents due to train surfing in the local transport system of Berlin (S-Bahn and underground). The period of investigation was from 1989 through 1995, with 41 train surfing accidents, among them 18 with fatal outcome. Evaluation included those 14 deaths which were forensically autopsied. It was based on autopsy records of Berlin-based university institutes (Humboldt University and Free University) as well as the Brandenburg State Institute of Legal Medicine. Also used were data obtained from the Berlin Transport Police Record. The casualties were aged between 13 and 25 years, most of them between 16 and 20. The male-female gender ratio was 13:1. Accidents occurred above all in the warmer season of the year, most of them between 20:00 h and midnight. More than 50% of all cases were affected by alcohol, but centrally acting medicaments or other addictive drugs were not noticed at all. Most of the fatal accidents occurred to users of the Berlin S-Bahn network. Older train models were the preferred surfing objects due to their structural peculiarities. Collision with close-to-track obstacles and slipping from the train proved to be the major sources of danger. An analysis of injuries revealed polytraumatisation but for one exception, with craniocerebral injuries being the most common and severest events. The longest survival time amounted to 24 h. As the psychosocial causes of high-risk behaviour of adolescents will hardly be controllable, withdrawal of technical, that is structural design possibilities appears to be the most important approach to prevention of accidents in the future. This demand is met by the new series of the Berlin S-Bahn. The model of the old series, suitable for surfing, still accounts for about 10% of the rolling stock and is to be decommissioned in 1998. PMID:9670490

  18. Object-oriented fault tree evaluation program for quantitative analyses

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patterson-Hine, F. A.; Koen, B. V.

    1988-01-01

    Object-oriented programming can be combined with fault free techniques to give a significantly improved environment for evaluating the safety and reliability of large complex systems for space missions. Deep knowledge about system components and interactions, available from reliability studies and other sources, can be described using objects that make up a knowledge base. This knowledge base can be interrogated throughout the design process, during system testing, and during operation, and can be easily modified to reflect design changes in order to maintain a consistent information source. An object-oriented environment for reliability assessment has been developed on a Texas Instrument (TI) Explorer LISP workstation. The program, which directly evaluates system fault trees, utilizes the object-oriented extension to LISP called Flavors that is available on the Explorer. The object representation of a fault tree facilitates the storage and retrieval of information associated with each event in the tree, including tree structural information and intermediate results obtained during the tree reduction process. Reliability data associated with each basic event are stored in the fault tree objects. The object-oriented environment on the Explorer also includes a graphical tree editor which was modified to display and edit the fault trees.

  19. Root causes and impacts of severe accidents at large nuclear power plants.

    PubMed

    Högberg, Lars

    2013-04-01

    The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long-lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities.

  20. Root causes and impacts of severe accidents at large nuclear power plants.

    PubMed

    Högberg, Lars

    2013-04-01

    The root causes and impacts of three severe accidents at large civilian nuclear power plants are reviewed: the Three Mile Island accident in 1979, the Chernobyl accident in 1986, and the Fukushima Daiichi accident in 2011. Impacts include health effects, evacuation of contaminated areas as well as cost estimates and impacts on energy policies and nuclear safety work in various countries. It is concluded that essential objectives for reactor safety work must be: (1) to prevent accidents from developing into severe core damage, even if they are initiated by very unlikely natural or man-made events, and, recognizing that accidents with severe core damage may nevertheless occur; (2) to prevent large-scale and long-lived ground contamination by limiting releases of radioactive nuclides such as cesium to less than about 100 TBq. To achieve these objectives the importance of maintaining high global standards of safety management and safety culture cannot be emphasized enough. All three severe accidents discussed in this paper had their root causes in system deficiencies indicative of poor safety management and poor safety culture in both the nuclear industry and government authorities. PMID:23423737

  1. Accidents and acts of God: a history of the terms.

    PubMed Central

    Loimer, H; Guarnieri, M

    1996-01-01

    Despite criticism from safety professionals, scientists continue to use the word accident, meaning an unexpected, unintended injury, or event. Some argue for its use based on tradition, but "traditional" arguments appear to be invalid given our examination of the history of the word and its companion phrase act of God in statistics, law, and religion. People who were interested in public health recognized in the 1600s that unintended injuries were neither random nor unexpected. Legal scholars in the 1800s saw the word was useless for technical purposes. The word does not appear in the Bible until the mid 1900s and then only in a para-phrased edition. Others have maintained that the meaning of accident is well understood, even though it has not been perfectly defined. We maintain that without a clear definition, people substitute an image, which may be distorted or damaging. Images p102-a p104-a p105-a PMID:8561226

  2. Taxonomy of interpretation trees

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Flynn, Patrick J.; Jain, Anil K.

    1992-02-01

    This paper explores alternative models of the interpretation tree (IT), whose search is one of the dominant paradigms for object recognition. Recurrence relations for the unpruned size of eight different types of search tree are introduced. Since exhaustive search of the IT in most recognition systems is impractical, pruning of various types is employed. It is therefore useful to see how much of the IT will be explored in a typical recognition problem. Probabilistic models of the search process have been proposed in the literature and used as a basis for theoretical bounds on search tree size, but experiments on a large number of images suggest that for 3-D object recognition from range data, the error probabilities (assumed to be constant) display significant variation. Hence, the theoretical bounds on the interpretation tree's size can serve only as rough estimates of the computational burden incurred during object recognition.

  3. Tree Nut Allergies

    MedlinePlus

    ... tree nut used on the label. Read all product labels carefully before purchasing and consuming any item. Ingredients ... Getting Started Newly Diagnosed Emergency Care Plan Food Labels Mislabeled Products Tips for Managing Food Allergies Resources For... Most ...

  4. Generalized constructive tree weights

    SciTech Connect

    Rivasseau, Vincent E-mail: adrian.tanasa@ens-lyon.org; Tanasa, Adrian E-mail: adrian.tanasa@ens-lyon.org

    2014-04-15

    The Loop Vertex Expansion (LVE) is a quantum field theory (QFT) method which explicitly computes the Borel sum of Feynman perturbation series. This LVE relies in a crucial way on symmetric tree weights which define a measure on the set of spanning trees of any connected graph. In this paper we generalize this method by defining new tree weights. They depend on the choice of a partition of a set of vertices of the graph, and when the partition is non-trivial, they are no longer symmetric under permutation of vertices. Nevertheless we prove they have the required positivity property to lead to a convergent LVE; in fact we formulate this positivity property precisely for the first time. Our generalized tree weights are inspired by the Brydges-Battle-Federbush work on cluster expansions and could be particularly suited to the computation of connected functions in QFT. Several concrete examples are explicitly given.

  5. Leonardo's Tree Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Werner, Suzanne K.

    2003-01-01

    Describes a series of activities exploring Leonardo da Vinci's tree theory that are designed to strengthen 8th grade students' data collection and problem solving skills in physical science classes. (KHR)

  6. The tree BVOC index.

    PubMed

    Simpson, J R; McPherson, E G

    2011-01-01

    Urban trees can produce a number of benefits, among them improved air quality. Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted by some species are ozone precursors. Modifying future tree planting to favor lower-emitting species can reduce these emissions and aid air management districts in meeting federally mandated emissions reductions for these compounds. Changes in BVOC emissions are calculated as the result of transitioning to a lower-emitting species mix in future planting. A simplified method for calculating the emissions reduction and a Tree BVOC index based on the calculated reduction is described. An example illustrates the use of the index as a tool for implementation and monitoring of a tree program designed to reduce BVOC emissions as a control measure being developed as part of the State Implementation Plan (SIP) for the Sacramento Federal Nonattainment Area. PMID:21435760

  7. Tree-bank grammars

    SciTech Connect

    Charniak, E.

    1996-12-31

    By a {open_quotes}tree-bank grammar{close_quotes} we mean a context-free grammar created by reading the production rules directly from hand-parsed sentences in a tree bank. Common wisdom has it that such grammars do not perform well, though we know of no published data on the issue. The primary purpose of this paper is to show that the common wisdom is wrong. In particular, we present results on a tree-bank grammar based on the Penn Wall Street Journal tree bank. To the best of our knowledge, this grammar outperforms all other non-word-based statistical parsers/grammars on this corpus. That is, it outperforms parsers that consider the input as a string of tags and ignore the actual words of the corpus.

  8. Temperature histories from tree rings and corals

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, E.R.

    1995-05-01

    Recent temperature trends in long tree-ring and coral proxy temperature histories are evaluated and compared in an effort to objectively determine how anomalous twentieth century temperature changes have been. These histories mostly reflect regional variations in summer warmth from the tree rings and annual warmth from the corals. In the Northern Hemisphere. the North American tree-ring temperature histories and those from the north Polar Urals, covering the past 1000 or more years, indicate that the twentieth century has been anomalously warm relative to the past. In contrast, the tree-ring history from northern Fennoscandia indicates that summer temperatures during the {open_quote}Medieval Warm Period{close_quote} were probably warmer on average than those than during this century. In the Southern Hemisphere, the tree-ring temperature histories from South America show no indication of recent warming, which is in accordance with local instrumental records. In contrast, the tree-ring, records from Tasmania and New Zealand indicate that the twentieth century has been unusually warm particularly since 1960. The coral temperature histories from the Galapagos Islands and the Great Barrier Reef are in broad agreement with the tree-ring temperature histories in those sectors, with the former showing recent cooling and the latter showing recent warming that may be unprecedented. Overall, the regional temperature histories evaluated here broadly support the larger-scale evidence for anomalous twentieth century warming based on instrumental records. However, this warming cannot be confirmed as an unprecedented event in all regions. 38 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

  9. NASA Accident Precursor Analysis Handbook, Version 1.0

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Everett, Chris; Hall, Anthony; Insley, Scott

    2011-01-01

    Catastrophic accidents are usually preceded by precursory events that, although observable, are not recognized as harbingers of a tragedy until after the fact. In the nuclear industry, the Three Mile Island accident was preceded by at least two events portending the potential for severe consequences from an underappreciated causal mechanism. Anomalies whose failure mechanisms were integral to the losses of Space Transportation Systems (STS) Challenger and Columbia had been occurring within the STS fleet prior to those accidents. Both the Rogers Commission Report and the Columbia Accident Investigation Board report found that processes in place at the time did not respond to the prior anomalies in a way that shed light on their true risk implications. This includes the concern that, in the words of the NASA Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), "no process addresses the need to update a hazard analysis when anomalies occur" At a broader level, the ASAP noted in 2007 that NASA "could better gauge the likelihood of losses by developing leading indicators, rather than continue to depend on lagging indicators". These observations suggest a need to revalidate prior assumptions and conclusions of existing safety (and reliability) analyses, as well as to consider the potential for previously unrecognized accident scenarios, when unexpected or otherwise undesired behaviors of the system are observed. This need is also discussed in NASA's system safety handbook, which advocates a view of safety assurance as driving a program to take steps that are necessary to establish and maintain a valid and credible argument for the safety of its missions. It is the premise of this handbook that making cases for safety more experience-based allows NASA to be better informed about the safety performance of its systems, and will ultimately help it to manage safety in a more effective manner. The APA process described in this handbook provides a systematic means of analyzing candidate

  10. How tree roots respond to drought

    PubMed Central

    Brunner, Ivano; Herzog, Claude; Dawes, Melissa A.; Arend, Matthias; Sperisen, Christoph

    2015-01-01

    The ongoing climate change is characterized by increased temperatures and altered precipitation patterns. In addition, there has been an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events such as drought. Episodes of drought induce a series of interconnected effects, all of which have the potential to alter the carbon balance of forest ecosystems profoundly at different scales of plant organization and ecosystem functioning. During recent years, considerable progress has been made in the understanding of how aboveground parts of trees respond to drought and how these responses affect carbon assimilation. In contrast, processes of belowground parts are relatively underrepresented in research on climate change. In this review, we describe current knowledge about responses of tree roots to drought. Tree roots are capable of responding to drought through a variety of strategies that enable them to avoid and tolerate stress. Responses include root biomass adjustments, anatomical alterations, and physiological acclimations. The molecular mechanisms underlying these responses are characterized to some extent, and involve stress signaling and the induction of numerous genes, leading to the activation of tolerance pathways. In addition, mycorrhizas seem to play important protective roles. The current knowledge compiled in this review supports the view that tree roots are well equipped to withstand drought situations and maintain morphological and physiological functions as long as possible. Further, the reviewed literature demonstrates the important role of tree roots in the functioning of forest ecosystems and highlights the need for more research in this emerging field. PMID:26284083

  11. Accidents at work in the health care - legal aspects in Poland.

    PubMed

    Szereda, Kamil; Szymańska, Jolanta

    2016-01-01

    An accident at work is a sudden event caused by external circumstances that occurred in relation to work. Referring to the current legislation, the Supreme Court judgments and the opinions contained in publications, the authors discuss the legal aspects of selected accidents: needle stick injuries, cuts with other sharp tools, heart attacks and strokes among health professionals and social workers in Poland. It has been stressed that defining rigid criteria that allow for stating unequivocal work - accidents relationships would be difficult or even impossible. Especially in the case of medical personnel the long-term and negative impact of stress on health is significant, and thus the occurrence of work accidents - heart attack or stroke. PMID:26891442

  12. K Basins floor sludge retrieval system knockout pot basket fuel burn accident

    SciTech Connect

    HUNT, J.W.

    1998-11-11

    The K Basins Sludge Retrieval System Preliminary Hazard Analysis Report (HNF-2676) identified and categorized a series of potential accidents associated with K Basins Sludge Retrieval System design and operation. The fuel burn accident was of concern with respect to the potential release of contamination resulting from a runaway chemical reaction of the uranium fuel in a knockout pot basket suspended in the air. The unmitigated radiological dose to an offsite receptor from this fuel burn accident is calculated to be much less than the offsite risk evaluation guidelines for anticipated events. However, because of potential radiation exposure to the facility worker, this accident is precluded with a safety significant lifting device that will prevent the monorail hoist from lifting the knockout pot basket out of the K Basin water pool.

  13. Accidents at work in the health care - legal aspects in Poland.

    PubMed

    Szereda, Kamil; Szymańska, Jolanta

    2016-01-01

    An accident at work is a sudden event caused by external circumstances that occurred in relation to work. Referring to the current legislation, the Supreme Court judgments and the opinions contained in publications, the authors discuss the legal aspects of selected accidents: needle stick injuries, cuts with other sharp tools, heart attacks and strokes among health professionals and social workers in Poland. It has been stressed that defining rigid criteria that allow for stating unequivocal work - accidents relationships would be difficult or even impossible. Especially in the case of medical personnel the long-term and negative impact of stress on health is significant, and thus the occurrence of work accidents - heart attack or stroke.

  14. Risk factors and musculoskeletal injuries associated with all-terrain vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Balthrop, Paul M; Nyland, John; Roberts, Craig S

    2009-02-01

    Accidents, injuries, and deaths sustained via all-terrain vehicle (ATV) use are on the rise. In addition to safe and proper ATV operation, accident-related risk factors include operator controllable behaviors such as helmet use, alcohol use, and deciding whether or not to carry a passenger. What the operator has little or no control over, however, is the inherently unstable ATV design with its narrow wheelbase, short turning radius, and high center of gravity, in addition to common use of low tire pressure to maximize maneuverability. These factors lead to musculoskeletal injuries that consist predominantly of extremity fractures, primarily through rollover events. There is a need for improved ATV operator safety education and more stringent regulations. The purpose of this review is to identify the accident and injury risk factors associated with ATV operation and to compare them with bicycle and motorcycle accident and injury risk factors to enable emergency medical professionals to develop better patient management and injury prevention strategies.

  15. Temporal Statistic of Traffic Accidents in Turkey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdogan, S.; Yalcin, M.; Yilmaz, M.; Korkmaz Takim, A.

    2015-10-01

    Traffic accidents form clusters in terms of geographic space and over time which themselves exhibit distinct spatial and temporal patterns. There is an imperative need to understand how, where and when traffic accidents occur in order to develop appropriate accident reduction strategies. An improved understanding of the location, time and reasons for traffic accidents makes a significant contribution to preventing them. Traffic accident occurrences have been extensively studied from different spatial and temporal points of view using a variety of methodological approaches. In literature, less research has been dedicated to the temporal patterns of traffic accidents. In this paper, the numbers of traffic accidents are normalized according to the traffic volume and the distribution and fluctuation of these accidents is examined in terms of Islamic time intervals. The daily activities and worship of Muslims are arranged according to these time intervals that are spaced fairly throughout the day according to the position of the sun. The Islamic time intervals are never been used before to identify the critical hour for traffic accidents in the world. The results show that the sunrise is the critical time that acts as a threshold in the rate of traffic accidents throughout Turkey in Islamic time intervals.

  16. Tree Topology Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Estrada, Rolando; Tomasi, Carlo; Schmidler, Scott C.; Farsiu, Sina

    2015-01-01

    Tree-like structures are fundamental in nature, and it is often useful to reconstruct the topology of a tree—what connects to what—from a two-dimensional image of it. However, the projected branches often cross in the image: the tree projects to a planar graph, and the inverse problem of reconstructing the topology of the tree from that of the graph is ill-posed. We regularize this problem with a generative, parametric tree-growth model. Under this model, reconstruction is possible in linear time if one knows the direction of each edge in the graph—which edge endpoint is closer to the root of the tree—but becomes NP-hard if the directions are not known. For the latter case, we present a heuristic search algorithm to estimate the most likely topology of a rooted, three-dimensional tree from a single two-dimensional image. Experimental results on retinal vessel, plant root, and synthetic tree datasets show that our methodology is both accurate and efficient. PMID:26353004

  17. 49 CFR 219.201 - Events for which testing is required.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Events for which testing is required. 219.201... § 219.201 Events for which testing is required. (a) List of events. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, post-accident toxicological tests must be conducted after any event that...

  18. 49 CFR 219.201 - Events for which testing is required.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2013-10-01 2013-10-01 false Events for which testing is required. 219.201... § 219.201 Events for which testing is required. (a) List of events. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, post-accident toxicological tests must be conducted after any event that...

  19. 49 CFR 219.201 - Events for which testing is required.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2014-10-01 2014-10-01 false Events for which testing is required. 219.201... § 219.201 Events for which testing is required. (a) List of events. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, post-accident toxicological tests must be conducted after any event that...

  20. 49 CFR 219.201 - Events for which testing is required.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Events for which testing is required. 219.201... § 219.201 Events for which testing is required. (a) List of events. Except as provided in paragraph (b) of this section, post-accident toxicological tests must be conducted after any event that...

  1. How Trees Can Save Energy.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fazio, James R., Ed.

    1991-01-01

    This document might easily have been called "How To Use Trees To Save Energy". It presents the energy saving advantages of landscaping the home and community with trees. The discussion includes: (1) landscaping advice to obtain the benefits of tree shade; (2) the heat island phenomenon in cities; (3) how and where to properly plant trees for…

  2. State Trees and Arbor Days.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Forest Service (USDA), Washington, DC.

    Provides information on state trees for each of the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Includes for each state: (1) year in which state tree was chosen; (2) common and scientific names of the tree; (3) arbor day observance; (4) address of state forester; and (5) drawings of the tree, leaf, and fruit or cone. (JN)

  3. A Beta-splitting model for evolutionary trees

    PubMed Central

    Sainudiin, Raazesh

    2016-01-01

    In this article, we construct a generalization of the Blum–François Beta-splitting model for evolutionary trees, which was itself inspired by Aldous' Beta-splitting model on cladograms. The novelty of our approach allows for asymmetric shares of diversification rates (or diversification ‘potential’) between two sister species in an evolutionarily interpretable manner, as well as the addition of extinction to the model in a natural way. We describe the incremental evolutionary construction of a tree with n leaves by splitting or freezing extant lineages through the generating, organizing and deleting processes. We then give the probability of any (binary rooted) tree under this model with no extinction, at several resolutions: ranked planar trees giving asymmetric roles to the first and second offspring species of a given species and keeping track of the order of the speciation events occurring during the creation of the tree, unranked planar trees, ranked non-planar trees and finally (unranked non-planar) trees. We also describe a continuous-time equivalent of the generating, organizing and deleting processes where tree topology and branch lengths are jointly modelled and provide code in SageMath/Python for these algorithms. PMID:27293780

  4. A Beta-splitting model for evolutionary trees.

    PubMed

    Sainudiin, Raazesh; Véber, Amandine

    2016-05-01

    In this article, we construct a generalization of the Blum-François Beta-splitting model for evolutionary trees, which was itself inspired by Aldous' Beta-splitting model on cladograms. The novelty of our approach allows for asymmetric shares of diversification rates (or diversification 'potential') between two sister species in an evolutionarily interpretable manner, as well as the addition of extinction to the model in a natural way. We describe the incremental evolutionary construction of a tree with n leaves by splitting or freezing extant lineages through the generating, organizing and deleting processes. We then give the probability of any (binary rooted) tree under this model with no extinction, at several resolutions: ranked planar trees giving asymmetric roles to the first and second offspring species of a given species and keeping track of the order of the speciation events occurring during the creation of the tree, unranked planar trees, ranked non-planar trees and finally (unranked non-planar) trees. We also describe a continuous-time equivalent of the generating, organizing and deleting processes where tree topology and branch lengths are jointly modelled and provide code in SageMath/Python for these algorithms.

  5. A Beta-splitting model for evolutionary trees.

    PubMed

    Sainudiin, Raazesh; Véber, Amandine

    2016-05-01

    In this article, we construct a generalization of the Blum-François Beta-splitting model for evolutionary trees, which was itself inspired by Aldous' Beta-splitting model on cladograms. The novelty of our approach allows for asymmetric shares of diversification rates (or diversification 'potential') between two sister species in an evolutionarily interpretable manner, as well as the addition of extinction to the model in a natural way. We describe the incremental evolutionary construction of a tree with n leaves by splitting or freezing extant lineages through the generating, organizing and deleting processes. We then give the probability of any (binary rooted) tree under this model with no extinction, at several resolutions: ranked planar trees giving asymmetric roles to the first and second offspring species of a given species and keeping track of the order of the speciation events occurring during the creation of the tree, unranked planar trees, ranked non-planar trees and finally (unranked non-planar) trees. We also describe a continuous-time equivalent of the generating, organizing and deleting processes where tree topology and branch lengths are jointly modelled and provide code in SageMath/Python for these algorithms. PMID:27293780

  6. The Human Factors of an Early Space Accident: Flight 3-65 of the X-15

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.; Orr, Jeb S.

    2015-01-01

    The X-15 was a critical research vehicle in the early days of space flight. On November 15, 1967, the X-15-3 suffered an in-flight breakup. This 191st flight of the X-15 and the 65th flight of this third configuration was the only fatal accident of the X-15 program. This paper presents an analysis, from a human factors perspective, of the events that led up to the accident. The analysis is based on the information contained in the report of the Air Force-NASA Accident Investigation Board (AIB) dated January, 1968. The AIBs analysis addressed, primarily, the events that occurred subsequent to the pilots taking direct control of the reaction control system. The analysis described here suggests that all of the events that caused the accident occurred well before the moment when the pilot switched to direct control. Consequently, the analyses and conclusions regarding the causal factors of, and the contributing factors to, the loss of Flight 3-65 presented here differ from those of the AIB based on the same evidence. Although the accident occurred in 1967, the results of the presented analysis are still relevant today. We present our analysis and discuss its implications for the safety of space operations.

  7. Rates of tree throw in Appalachian shale landscapes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    White, T. S.; Dere, A. L. D.

    2014-12-01

    Arborturbation, or tree throw, the upheaval of soil and sometimes bedrock in the root mass of a fallen tree, has been suggested to be a major process in the overturn and downslope transport of soil and shallow bedrock in mountainous regions. Reported here is a quantification of the effects of tree throw from six sites in the eastern U.S. from New York to Alabama. The study included field measurements of individual tree throws within a 120-meter diameter search area centered on ridge tops on the Silurian Rose Hill Formation shale and coeval strata of similar composition. The following observations were made for each tree throw at each study site: GPS location, tree girth, relative tree age, tree type, dimensions of pit, azimuth of fall, and slope and azimuth of maximum slope. These observations allowed quantification of the volume and distance of transport of sediment per event, and the number of events/area/time. The sediment fluxes reported here range from 1.8 X 10-5 m2/m/y to 2.1 X 10-4 m2/m/y. The observations double in number and verify formulations of sediment flux due to tree throw cited in the literature., and exceed by several orders of magnitude values for sediment flux rate by soil creep on slopes. Slope and prevailing wind direction, while important in places, did not control the majority of arborturbation events in this study. The total number of tree throws is observed to decrease while sediment flux by tree throw generally increases from north to south along the study transect. Larger trees evacuate larger pits, but interestingly there is no observed increase in the average girth of trees in the study area to account for the discrepancy between number of tree throws and sediment flux. However, the depth to a root limiting layer and the distance from the center of a root wad to the center of an excavated pit increases from north to south - deeper roots excavate more soil and deeper soils generally exist in warmer climates.

  8. Precursors to potential severe core damage accidents: 1992, a status report; Volume 18: Appendices B, C, D, E, F, and G

    SciTech Connect

    1993-12-01

    This document is part of a report which documents 1992 operational events selected as accident sequence precursors. This report describes the 27 precursors identified from the 1992 licensee event reports. It also describe containment-related events; {open_quote}interesting{close_quote} events; potentially significant events that were considered impractical to analyze; copies of the licensee event reports which were cited in the cases above; and comments from the licensee and NRC in response to the preliminary reports.

  9. Introduction of the Space Shuttle Columbia Accident, Investigation Details, Findings and Crew Survival Investigation Report

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chandler, Michael

    2010-01-01

    As the Space Shuttle Program comes to an end, it is important that the lessons learned from the Columbia accident be captured and understood by those who will be developing future aerospace programs and supporting current programs. Aeromedical lessons learned from the Accident were presented at AsMA in 2005. This Panel will update that information, closeout the lessons learned, provide additional information on the accident and provide suggestions for the future. To set the stage, an overview of the accident is required. The Space Shuttle Columbia was returning to Earth with a crew of seven astronauts on 1Feb, 2003. It disintegrated along a track extending from California to Louisiana and observers along part of the track filmed the breakup of Columbia. Debris was recovered from Littlefield, Texas to Fort Polk, Louisiana, along a 567 statute mile track; the largest ever recorded debris field. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) concluded its investigation in August 2003, and released their findings in a report published in February 2004. NASA recognized the importance of capturing the lessons learned from the loss of Columbia and her crew and the Space Shuttle Program managers commissioned the Spacecraft Crew Survival Integrated Investigation Team (SCSIIT) to accomplish this. Their task was to perform a comprehensive analysis of the accident, focusing on factors and events affecting crew survival, and to develop recommendations for improving crew survival, including the design features, equipment, training and procedures intended to protect the crew. NASA released the Columbia Crew Survival Investigation Report in December 2008. Key personnel have been assembled to give you an overview of the Space Shuttle Columbia accident, the medical response, the medico-legal issues, the SCSIIT findings and recommendations and future NASA flight surgeon spacecraft accident response training. Educational Objectives: Set the stage for the Panel to address the

  10. MSHA releases data on CM crushing accidents

    SciTech Connect

    2007-02-15

    The US Mine Safety and Health Administration (MHSA) recently formed a committee to identify norms and trends in remote control continuous miner crushing accidents. The final report found that these types of accidents commonly happen to experienced miners during routine mining activities, with the majority occurring while moving the miner from one face to another, place changing. Another common aspect of the accidents is that many of the victims are experienced miners who are newly employed at the mine where the accident occurred. Training all employees to stay outside the turning radius of an energized remote control continuous miner, establishing this as a safe operating procedure, and consistently enforcing this practice among miners will reduce these types of accidents. This article was excerpted from the 'Remote Control Continuous Mining Machine Crushing Accident Data Study' published in May 2006. The report may be found from the website: www.msha.gov. 4 figs., 1 tab.

  11. Enhanced Accident Tolerant LWR Fuels National Metrics Workshop Report

    SciTech Connect

    Lori Braase

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), in collaboration with the nuclear industry, has been conducting research and development (R&D) activities on advanced Light Water Reactor (LWR) fuels for the last few years. The emphasis for these activities was on improving the fuel performance in terms of increased burnup for waste minimization and increased power density for power upgrades, as well as collaborating with industry on fuel reliability. After the events at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant in Japan in March 2011, enhancing the accident tolerance of LWRs became a topic of serious discussion. In the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2012, Conference Report 112-75, the U.S. Congress directed DOE-NE to: • Give “priority to developing enhanced fuels and cladding for light water reactors to improve safety in the event of accidents in the reactor or spent fuel pools.” • Give “special technical emphasis and funding priority…to activities aimed at the development and near-term qualification of meltdown-resistant, accident-tolerant nuclear fuels that would enhance the safety of present and future generations of light water reactors.” • Report “to the Committee, within 90 days of enactment of this act, on its plan for development of meltdown-resistant fuels leading to reactor testing and utilization by 2020.” Fuels with enhanced accident tolerance are those that, in comparison with the standard UO2-zirconium alloy system currently used by the nuclear industry, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations, and operational transients, as well as design-basis and beyond design-basis events. The overall draft strategy for development and demonstration is comprised of three phases: Feasibility Assessment and Down-selection; Development and Qualification; and

  12. Cardiac damage presenting late after road accidents.

    PubMed Central

    Mackintosh, A F; Fleming, H A

    1981-01-01

    Six examples of cardiac damage secondary to non-penetrating trauma in road accidents are described. In all six cases the lesion was not recognised at the time of the accident but became clinically important two days to 17 years later. As the patients were young or had unusual lesions, the damage could be attributed to the accident. In older patients with common cardiac problems the trauma might not be recognised as the underlying cause. PMID:7330802

  13. Transportation accident scenarios for commercial spent fuel

    SciTech Connect

    Wilmot, E L

    1981-02-01

    A spectrum of high severity, low probability, transportation accident scenarios involving commercial spent fuel is presented together with mechanisms, pathways and quantities of material that might be released from spent fuel to the environment. These scenarios are based on conclusions from a workshop, conducted in May 1980 to discuss transportation accident scenarios, in which a group of experts reviewed and critiqued available literature relating to spent fuel behavior and cask response in accidents.

  14. Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees.

    PubMed

    Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

    2016-01-01

    Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted. PMID:27069397

  15. Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees

    PubMed Central

    Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

    2016-01-01

    Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted. PMID:27069397

  16. Omics studies of citrus, grape and rosaceae fruit trees.

    PubMed

    Shiratake, Katsuhiro; Suzuki, Mami

    2016-01-01

    Recent advance of bioinformatics and analytical apparatuses such as next generation DNA sequencer (NGS) and mass spectrometer (MS) has brought a big wave of comprehensive study to biology. Comprehensive study targeting all genes, transcripts (RNAs), proteins, metabolites, hormones, ions or phenotypes is called genomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, metabolomics, hormonomics, ionomics or phenomics, respectively. These omics are powerful approaches to identify key genes for important traits, to clarify events of physiological mechanisms and to reveal unknown metabolic pathways in crops. Recently, the use of omics approach has increased dramatically in fruit tree research. Although the most reported omics studies on fruit trees are transcriptomics, proteomics and metabolomics, and a few is reported on hormonomics and ionomics. In this article, we reviewed recent omics studies of major fruit trees, i.e. citrus, grapevine and rosaceae fruit trees. The effectiveness and prospects of omics in fruit tree research will as well be highlighted.

  17. Identifying representative trees from ensembles.

    PubMed

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Ding, Ying; Noone, Anne-Michelle

    2012-07-10

    Tree-based methods have become popular for analyzing complex data structures where the primary goal is risk stratification of patients. Ensemble techniques improve the accuracy in prediction and address the instability in a single tree by growing an ensemble of trees and aggregating. However, in the process, individual trees get lost. In this paper, we propose a methodology for identifying the most representative trees in an ensemble on the basis of several tree distance metrics. Although our focus is on binary outcomes, the methods are applicable to censored data as well. For any two trees, the distance metrics are chosen to (1) measure similarity of the covariates used to split the trees; (2) reflect similar clustering of patients in the terminal nodes of the trees; and (3) measure similarity in predictions from the two trees. Whereas the latter focuses on prediction, the first two metrics focus on the architectural similarity between two trees. The most representative trees in the ensemble are chosen on the basis of the average distance between a tree and all other trees in the ensemble. Out-of-bag estimate of error rate is obtained using neighborhoods of representative trees. Simulations and data examples show gains in predictive accuracy when averaging over such neighborhoods. We illustrate our methods using a dataset of kidney cancer treatment receipt (binary outcome) and a second dataset of breast cancer survival (censored outcome).

  18. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  19. Defining Human Failure Events for Petroleum Risk Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Ronald L. Boring; Knut Øien

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, an identification and description of barriers and human failure events (HFEs) for human reliability analysis (HRA) is performed. The barriers, called target systems, are identified from risk significant accident scenarios represented as defined situations of hazard and accident (DSHAs). This report serves as the foundation for further work to develop petroleum HFEs compatible with the SPAR-H method and intended for reuse in future HRAs.

  20. Industrial Safety and Accidents Prevention

    SciTech Connect

    Sajjad Akbar

    2006-07-01

    Accident Hazards, dangers, losses and risk are what we would to like to eliminate, minimize or avoid in industry. Modern industries have created many opportunities for these against which man's primitive instincts offer no protection. In today's complex industrial environment safety has become major preoccupation, especially after the realization that there is a clear economic incentive to do so. Industrial hazards may cause by human error or by physical or mechanical malfunction, it is very often possible to eliminate the worst consequences of human error by engineering modification. But the modification also needs checking very thoroughly to ensue that it has not introduced some new and unsuspected hazard. (author)

  1. HTGR severe accident sequence analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Harrington, R.M.; Ball, S.J.; Kornegay, F.C.

    1982-01-01

    Thermal-hydraulic, fission product transport, and atmospheric dispersion calculations are presented for hypothetical severe accident release paths at the Fort St. Vrain (FSV) high temperature gas cooled reactor (HTGR). Off-site radiation exposures are calculated for assumed release of 100% of the 24 hour post-shutdown core xenon and krypton inventory and 5.5% of the iodine inventory. The results show conditions under which dose avoidance measures would be desirable and demonstrate the importance of specific release characteristics such as effective release height. 7 tables.

  2. Small bodies' impacts and tree-rings

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moshnikova, Maria; Shumilov, Oleg; Kasatkina, Elena; Kanatjev, Alexandr; Timonen, Mauri

    2016-04-01

    The Earth has no natural protection against cosmic bodies' impacts from space. It could be bombarded either by very small particles of cosmic dust every day or by huge bodies causing significant climatic changes. The AD 536 comet event is supposed to be the reason of the global temperature decrease of up to 3°C (Baillie, The Holocene, 1994). Using the 7500 finish supra-long chronology analysis we also observed the tree growth stress after the AD 536 event. The observation of small cosmic bodies by optical methods is most difficult as it was demonstrated in the case of the 2013 Chelyabinsk bolide. Though, there are proxy data providing detailed information about astronomical phenomena in the past. For example, the tree-ring analysis demonstrates the anomalous growth of trees after the Tunguska event in Siberia in 1908 and the same, but smaller effect after the Chulym bolide explosion in 1984 (Kasatkina, Shumilov, JETP Letters, 2007). We considered that the collisions with much smaller cosmic bodies sized from several to hundred meters may also cause similar effects. The results of our dendrochronological research at the Kola Peninsula (northwestern Russia) showed the tree growth increase in 1873 (up to 30% compared to the previous year) at a large distance. The tree-ring growth was likely stimulated either by the comet substance spread over a large territory of the Kola Peninsula and introduced into the soil or by the NO produced during the Kola bolide impact. This fact confirms the evidence of the Kola bolide impact on February 4, 1873 described in "The earthquake catalogue of the Russian Empire" (Mushketov, Orlov, 1893). We determined the distribution of the wind velocity in February 1873 using the Horizontal Neutral Wind Model 07 (HWM 07). The tree-ring analysis and the wind velocity distribution allowed us to estimate the possible trajectory of the Kola bolide flight in February 1873. Our results showed that the dendrochronological method is proved to be the

  3. The determinants of fishing vessel accident severity.

    PubMed

    Jin, Di

    2014-05-01

    The study examines the determinants of fishing vessel accident severity in the Northeastern United States using vessel accident data from the U.S. Coast Guard for 2001-2008. Vessel damage and crew injury severity equations were estimated separately utilizing the ordered probit model. The results suggest that fishing vessel accident severity is significantly affected by several types of accidents. Vessel damage severity is positively associated with loss of stability, sinking, daytime wind speed, vessel age, and distance to shore. Vessel damage severity is negatively associated with vessel size and daytime sea level pressure. Crew injury severity is also positively related to the loss of vessel stability and sinking.

  4. Thermal hydraulic features of the TMI accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tolman, B.

    1985-10-01

    The Three Mile island (TMI)-2 accident resulted in extensive core damage and recent data confirms that the reactor vessel was challenged from molten core materials. A hypothesized TMI accident scenario is presented that consistently explains the TMI data and is also consistent with research findings from independent severe fuel damage experiments. The TMI data will prove useful in confirming our understanding of severe core damage accidents under realistic reactor systems conditions. This understanding will aid in addressing safety and regulatory issues related to severe core damage accidents in light water reactors.

  5. [SAFETY IN THE ELDERLY: HOME ACCIDENTS].

    PubMed

    Martín-Espinosa, Noelia M; Píriz-Campos, Rosa Ma; Cordeiro, Raú; Muñoz Bermejo, Laura; Casado Verdjo, Inés; Postigo Mota, Salvador

    2016-05-01

    Home accidents are more common in the elderly and they can have serious consequences to the injured person's health. At home, chances to suffer accidents of any type are higher, because it's the place where old people spend most of their daily time. It is important to point out that a high percentage of domestic accidents could be easily avoided by taking some simple cautions. The main aim of this paper is to know how we can prevent most common domestic accidents in the aged population: falls, burnings, poisonings and fire prevention. PMID:27405149

  6. The determinants of fishing vessel accident severity.

    PubMed

    Jin, Di

    2014-05-01

    The study examines the determinants of fishing vessel accident severity in the Northeastern United States using vessel accident data from the U.S. Coast Guard for 2001-2008. Vessel damage and crew injury severity equations were estimated separately utilizing the ordered probit model. The results suggest that fishing vessel accident severity is significantly affected by several types of accidents. Vessel damage severity is positively associated with loss of stability, sinking, daytime wind speed, vessel age, and distance to shore. Vessel damage severity is negatively associated with vessel size and daytime sea level pressure. Crew injury severity is also positively related to the loss of vessel stability and sinking. PMID:24473412

  7. Simulating Urban Tree Effects on Air, Water, and Heat Pollution Mitigation: iTree-Hydro Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Y.; Endreny, T. A.; Nowak, D.

    2011-12-01

    Urban and suburban development changes land surface thermal, radiative, porous, and roughness properties and pollutant loading rates, with the combined effect leading to increased air, water, and heat pollution (e.g., urban heat islands). In this research we present the USDA Forest Service urban forest ecosystem and hydrology model, iTree Eco and Hydro, used to analyze how tree cover can deliver valuable ecosystem services to mitigate air, water, and heat pollution. Air pollution mitigation is simulated by dry deposition processes based on detected pollutant levels for CO, NO2, SO2, O3 and atmospheric stability and leaf area indices. Water quality mitigation is simulated with event mean concentration loading algorithms for N, P, metals, and TSS, and by green infrastructure pollutant filtering algorithms that consider flow path dispersal areas. Urban cooling considers direct shading and indirect evapotranspiration. Spatially distributed estimates of hourly tree evapotranspiration during the growing season are used to estimate human thermal comfort. Two main factors regulating evapotranspiration are soil moisture and canopy radiation. Spatial variation of soil moisture is represented by a modified urban topographic index and radiation for each tree is modified by considering aspect, slope and shade from surrounding buildings or hills. We compare the urban cooling algorithms used in iTree-Hydro with the urban canopy and land surface physics schemes used in the Weather Research and Forecasting model. We conclude by identifying biophysical feedbacks between tree-modulated air and water quality environmental services and how these may respond to urban heating and cooling. Improvements to this iTree model are intended to assist managers identify valuable tree services for urban living.

  8. Code System for Toxic Gas Accident Analysis.

    2001-09-24

    Version 00 TOXRISK is an interactive program developed to aid in the evaluation of nuclear power plant control room habitability in the event of a nearby toxic material release. The program uses a model which is consistent with the approach described in the NRC Regulatory Guide 1.78. Release of the gas is treated as an initial puff followed by a continuous plume. The relative proportions of these as well as the plume release rate aremore » supplied by the user. Transport of the gas is modeled as a Gaussian distribution and occurs through the action of a constant velocity, constant direction wind. Dispersion or diffusion of the gas during transport is described by modified Pasquill-Gifford dispersion coefficients. Great flexibility is afforded the user in specifying the release description, meteorological conditions, relative geometry of the accident and plant, and the plant ventilation system characteristics. Two types of simulation can be performed: multiple case (parametric) studies and probabilistic analyses.« less

  9. Biorhythmic Cycles and the Incidence of Industrial Accidents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carvey, Davis W.; Nibler, Roger G.

    1977-01-01

    The biorhythm theory of accident explanation that has been increasingly popularized in the business press was empirically examined. Municipal employees involved in work-related vehicular accidents and in on-the-job accidents provided the data. Each accident was analyzed to determine whether or not the accident occurred on a biorhythmically…

  10. Predicting 'very poor' beach water quality gradings using classification tree.

    PubMed

    Thoe, Wai; Choi, King Wah; Lee, Joseph Hun-wei

    2016-02-01

    A beach water quality prediction system has been developed in Hong Kong using multiple linear regression (MLR) models. However, linear models are found to be weak at capturing the infrequent 'very poor' water quality occasions when Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL. This study uses a classification tree to increase the accuracy in predicting the 'very poor' water quality events at three Hong Kong beaches affected either by non-point source or point source pollution. Binary-output classification trees (to predict whether E. coli concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL) are developed over the periods before and after the implementation of the Harbour Area Treatment Scheme, when systematic changes in water quality were observed. Results show that classification trees can capture more 'very poor' events in both periods when compared to the corresponding linear models, with an increase in correct positives by an average of 20%. Classification trees are also developed at two beaches to predict the four-category Beach Water Quality Indices. They perform worse than the binary tree and give excessive false alarms of 'very poor' events. Finally, a combined modelling approach using both MLR model and classification tree is proposed to enhance the beach water quality prediction system for Hong Kong.

  11. Predicting 'very poor' beach water quality gradings using classification tree.

    PubMed

    Thoe, Wai; Choi, King Wah; Lee, Joseph Hun-wei

    2016-02-01

    A beach water quality prediction system has been developed in Hong Kong using multiple linear regression (MLR) models. However, linear models are found to be weak at capturing the infrequent 'very poor' water quality occasions when Escherichia coli (E. coli) concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL. This study uses a classification tree to increase the accuracy in predicting the 'very poor' water quality events at three Hong Kong beaches affected either by non-point source or point source pollution. Binary-output classification trees (to predict whether E. coli concentration exceeds 610 counts/100 mL) are developed over the periods before and after the implementation of the Harbour Area Treatment Scheme, when systematic changes in water quality were observed. Results show that classification trees can capture more 'very poor' events in both periods when compared to the corresponding linear models, with an increase in correct positives by an average of 20%. Classification trees are also developed at two beaches to predict the four-category Beach Water Quality Indices. They perform worse than the binary tree and give excessive false alarms of 'very poor' events. Finally, a combined modelling approach using both MLR model and classification tree is proposed to enhance the beach water quality prediction system for Hong Kong. PMID:26837834

  12. Tree nut allergens.

    PubMed

    Roux, Kenneth H; Teuber, Suzanne S; Sathe, Shridhar K

    2003-08-01

    Allergic reactions to tree nuts can be serious and life threatening. Considerable research has been conducted in recent years in an attempt to characterize those allergens that are most responsible for allergy sensitization and triggering. Both native and recombinant nut allergens have been identified and characterized and, for some, the IgE-reactive epitopes described. Some allergens, such as lipid transfer proteins, profilins, and members of the Bet v 1-related family, represent minor constituents in tree nuts. These allergens are frequently cross-reactive with other food and pollen homologues, and are considered panallergens. Others, such as legumins, vicilins, and 2S albumins, represent major seed storage protein constituents of the nuts. The allergenic tree nuts discussed in this review include those most commonly responsible for allergic reactions such as hazelnut, walnut, cashew, and almond as well as those less frequently associated with allergies including pecan, chestnut, Brazil nut, pine nut, macadamia nut, pistachio, coconut, Nangai nut, and acorn.

  13. Tree nut allergens.

    PubMed

    Roux, Kenneth H; Teuber, Suzanne S; Sathe, Shridhar K

    2003-08-01

    Allergic reactions to tree nuts can be serious and life threatening. Considerable research has been conducted in recent years in an attempt to characterize those allergens that are most responsible for allergy sensitization and triggering. Both native and recombinant nut allergens have been identified and characterized and, for some, the IgE-reactive epitopes described. Some allergens, such as lipid transfer proteins, profilins, and members of the Bet v 1-related family, represent minor constituents in tree nuts. These allergens are frequently cross-reactive with other food and pollen homologues, and are considered panallergens. Others, such as legumins, vicilins, and 2S albumins, represent major seed storage protein constituents of the nuts. The allergenic tree nuts discussed in this review include those most commonly responsible for allergic reactions such as hazelnut, walnut, cashew, and almond as well as those less frequently associated with allergies including pecan, chestnut, Brazil nut, pine nut, macadamia nut, pistachio, coconut, Nangai nut, and acorn. PMID:12915766

  14. Traumatic injury may be a predisposing factor for cerebrovascular accident.

    PubMed

    Wojcik, Jodi B; Benns, Matthew V; Franklin, Glen A; Harbrecht, Brian G; Broughton-Miller, Kimberly D; Frisbie, Michelle C; Smith, Jason W; Pentecost, Karina M; Bozeman, Matthew C

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess whether trauma may be an independent risk factor for stroke. Evidence has shown that trauma patients experience a hypercoagulable state postinjury, increasing the risk of thrombotic events. A case-controlled, retrospective analysis was performed on admitted trauma patients over a 2-year period. Results revealed that trauma patients are 1.6 times more likely to have a cerebrovascular accident (CVA) during their hospital admission, when compared with nontrauma patients with similar CVA risk factors. Several statistically significant differences between the groups were identified. On the basis of these results, trauma appears to be an independent, nonmodifiable risk factor for CVA.

  15. Enhanced Accident Tolerant Fuels for LWRS - A Preliminary Systems Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Gilles Youinou; R. Sonat Sen

    2013-09-01

    The severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plants illustrates the need for continuous improvements through developing and implementing technologies that contribute to safe, reliable and cost-effective operation of the nuclear fleet. Development of enhanced accident tolerant fuel contributes to this effort. These fuels, in comparison with the standard zircaloy – UO2 system currently used by the LWR industry, should be designed such that they tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations, operational transients, and design-basis events. This report presents a preliminary systems analysis related to most of these concepts. The potential impacts of these innovative LWR fuels on the front-end of the fuel cycle, on the reactor operation and on the back-end of the fuel cycle are succinctly described without having the pretension of being exhaustive. Since the design of these various concepts is still a work in progress, this analysis can only be preliminary and could be updated as the designs converge on their respective final version.

  16. The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident--an overview.

    PubMed

    Thielen, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident on 11 March 2011 was a consequence of the 9.0 magnitude Tōhoku earthquake and the following tsunami. A series of ongoing equipment failures in several units of the power plant led to releases of radioactive material into the atmosphere and the seawater. Based on these emissions, the accident was regarded as a level 7 (major accident) on the International Nuclear and Radiological Event Scale (INES). The emissions caused significant radiation and isotope concentrations measured in the environment by involved institutions. Measurements were performed on different media like soil, water, and foodstuffs. Based on these monitoring data, the authorities in Japan implemented emergency measures to protect the population of the region. These measures were, for example, evacuating the people from the zone where high gamma dose rates were detected or banning contaminated foodstuffs with respect to existing limit values. Direct and indirect effects of the releases in Japan could also be observed in Europe. However, it should be noted that the measured values were far below those values that could affect human health. PMID:22951475

  17. PhyBin: binning trees by topology.

    PubMed

    Newton, Ryan R; Newton, Irene L G

    2013-01-01

    A major goal of many evolutionary analyses is to determine the true evolutionary history of an organism. Molecular methods that rely on the phylogenetic signal generated by a few to a handful of loci can be used to approximate the evolution of the entire organism but fall short of providing a global, genome-wide, perspective on evolutionary processes. Indeed, individual genes in a genome may have different evolutionary histories. Therefore, it is informative to analyze the number and kind of phylogenetic topologies found within an orthologous set of genes across a genome. Here we present PhyBin: a flexible program for clustering gene trees based on topological structure. PhyBin can generate bins of topologies corresponding to exactly identical trees or can utilize Robinson-Fould's distance matrices to generate clusters of similar trees, using a user-defined threshold. Additionally, PhyBin allows the user to adjust for potential noise in the dataset (as may be produced when comparing very closely related organisms) by pre-processing trees to collapse very short branches or those nodes not meeting a defined bootstrap threshold. As a test case, we generated individual trees based on an orthologous gene set from 10 Wolbachia species across four different supergroups (A-D) and utilized PhyBin to categorize the complete set of topologies produced from this dataset. Using this approach, we were able to show that although a single topology generally dominated the analysis, confirming the separation of the supergroups, many genes supported alternative evolutionary histories. Because PhyBin's output provides the user with lists of gene trees in each topological cluster, it can be used to explore potential reasons for discrepancies between phylogenies including homoplasies, long-branch attraction, or horizontal gene transfer events.

  18. BWRSAR (Boiling Water Reactor Severe Accident Response) calculations of reactor vessel debris pours for Peach Bottom short-term station blackout

    SciTech Connect

    Hodge, S.A.; Ott, L.J.

    1988-01-01

    This paper describes recent analyses performed by the BWR Severe Accident Technology (BWRSAT) Program at Oak Ridge National Laboratory to estimate the release of debris from the reactor vessel for the unmitigated short-term station blackout accident sequence. Calculations were performed with the BWR Severe Accident Response (BWRSAR) code and are based upon consideration of the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station. The modeling strategies employed within BWRSAR for debris relocation within the reactor vessel are briefly discussed and the calculated events of the accident sequence, including details of the calculated debris pours, are presented. 4 refs., 13 figs., 3 tabs.

  19. The gene tree delusion.

    PubMed

    Springer, Mark S; Gatesy, John

    2016-01-01

    Higher-level relationships among placental mammals are mostly resolved, but several polytomies remain contentious. Song et al. (2012) claimed to have resolved three of these using shortcut coalescence methods (MP-EST, STAR) and further concluded that these methods, which assume no within-locus recombination, are required to unravel deep-level phylogenetic problems that have stymied concatenation. Here, we reanalyze Song et al.'s (2012) data and leverage these re-analyses to explore key issues in systematics including the recombination ratchet, gene tree stoichiometry, the proportion of gene tree incongruence that results from deep coalescence versus other factors, and simulations that compare the performance of coalescence and concatenation methods in species tree estimation. Song et al. (2012) reported an average locus length of 3.1 kb for the 447 protein-coding genes in their phylogenomic dataset, but the true mean length of these loci (start codon to stop codon) is 139.6 kb. Empirical estimates of recombination breakpoints in primates, coupled with consideration of the recombination ratchet, suggest that individual coalescence genes (c-genes) approach ∼12 bp or less for Song et al.'s (2012) dataset, three to four orders of magnitude shorter than the c-genes reported by these authors. This result has general implications for the application of coalescence methods in species tree estimation. We contend that it is illogical to apply coalescence methods to complete protein-coding sequences. Such analyses amalgamate c-genes with different evolutionary histories (i.e., exons separated by >100,000 bp), distort true gene tree stoichiometry that is required for accurate species tree inference, and contradict the central rationale for applying coalescence methods to difficult phylogenetic problems. In addition, Song et al.'s (2012) dataset of 447 genes includes 21 loci with switched taxonomic names, eight duplicated loci, 26 loci with non-homologous sequences that are

  20. Heartwood and tree exudates

    SciTech Connect

    Hillis, W.E.

    1987-01-01

    Increasingly, mankind will depend on renewable resources produced at low energy cost - such as forest products. Greater demands will require increased growth as well as utilisation with reduced loss. After a certain age, trees from heartwood containing increased amounts of extractives which are also formed in injured sapwood or are exuded. Their presence can provide trees with resistance to disease and insect attack and they can also affect the efficient utilisation of wood. In this book different facets of heartwood, extractives and exudates are reviewed as a whole for the first time.

  1. The gene tree delusion.

    PubMed

    Springer, Mark S; Gatesy, John

    2016-01-01

    Higher-level relationships among placental mammals are mostly resolved, but several polytomies remain contentious. Song et al. (2012) claimed to have resolved three of these using shortcut coalescence methods (MP-EST, STAR) and further concluded that these methods, which assume no within-locus recombination, are required to unravel deep-level phylogenetic problems that have stymied concatenation. Here, we reanalyze Song et al.'s (2012) data and leverage these re-analyses to explore key issues in systematics including the recombination ratchet, gene tree stoichiometry, the proportion of gene tree incongruence that results from deep coalescence versus other factors, and simulations that compare the performance of coalescence and concatenation methods in species tree estimation. Song et al. (2012) reported an average locus length of 3.1 kb for the 447 protein-coding genes in their phylogenomic dataset, but the true mean length of these loci (start codon to stop codon) is 139.6 kb. Empirical estimates of recombination breakpoints in primates, coupled with consideration of the recombination ratchet, suggest that individual coalescence genes (c-genes) approach ∼12 bp or less for Song et al.'s (2012) dataset, three to four orders of magnitude shorter than the c-genes reported by these authors. This result has general implications for the application of coalescence methods in species tree estimation. We contend that it is illogical to apply coalescence methods to complete protein-coding sequences. Such analyses amalgamate c-genes with different evolutionary histories (i.e., exons separated by >100,000 bp), distort true gene tree stoichiometry that is required for accurate species tree inference, and contradict the central rationale for applying coalescence methods to difficult phylogenetic problems. In addition, Song et al.'s (2012) dataset of 447 genes includes 21 loci with switched taxonomic names, eight duplicated loci, 26 loci with non-homologous sequences that are

  2. [Accidents by external causes in adolescents: care in sentinel urgency and emergency services in the Brazilian State Capitals--2009].

    PubMed

    Malta, Deborah Carvalho; Mascarenhas, Márcio Dênis Medeiros; Bernal, Regina Tomie Ivata; Andrade, Silvania Suely Caribé de Araújo; das Neves, Alice Cristina Medeiros; de Melo, Elza Machado; da Silva Junior, Jarbas Barbosa

    2012-09-01

    Adolescents are seeking new references and experiences, which may involve attitudes of risk and exposure to accidents and violence from external causes. These events constitute a serious Public Health problem. The scope of this study was to analyze the occurrence of accidents by external causes in adolescents from 10 to 19 years of age attended at sentinel urgency and emergency services in Brazil. Data from the 2009 Surveillance System for Violence and Accidents (VIVA 2009) was analyzed in 74 emergency units in 23 state capitals and the Federal District. The findings revealed that 6,434 adolescents (89.8%) were victims of accidents and 730 (10.2 %) were victims of violence. The main causes of the accidents were falls and traffic accidents, and assaults were predominant in violence. For both accidents and violence, non-white male adolescents were predominant and the events occurred most frequently on the public highways. A marked increase was detected, with hospitalization of victims of violence between 15 and 19 years of age. Understanding the epidemiological reality of external causes among adolescents represents an important tool for health prevention and promotion policies and the culture of peace seeking to reduce morbidity and mortality. PMID:22996881

  3. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit final safety analysis report (LWRHU-FSAR): Volume 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.W.

    1988-10-01

    The purpose of this volume of the LWRHU SAR, the Accident Model Document (AMD), are to: Identify all malfunctions, both singular and multiple, which can occur during the complete mission profile that could lead to release outside the clad of the radioisotopic material contained therein; Provide estimates of occurrence probabilities associated with these various accidents; Evaluate the response of the LWRHU (or its components) to the resultant accident environments; and Associate the potential event history with test data or analysis to determine the potential interaction of the released radionuclides with the biosphere.

  4. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit Safety Analysis Report (LWRHU-SAR). Volume II. Accident model document

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.W.

    1985-10-01

    Purposes of this volume (AMD), are to: Identify all malfunctions, both singular and multiple, which can occur during the complete mission profile that could lead to release outside the clad of the radioisotopic material contained therein; provide estimates of occurrence probabilities associated with these various accidents; evaluate the response of the LWRHU (or its components) to the resultant accident environments; and associate the potential event history with test data or analysis to determine the potential interaction of the released radionuclides with the biosphere.

  5. Larger trees suffer most during drought in forests worldwide

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bennett, Amy C.; McDowell, Nathan G.; Allen, Craig D.; Anderson-Teixeira, Kristina J.

    2015-01-01

    The frequency of severe droughts is increasing in many regions around the world as a result of climate change. Droughts alter the structure and function of forests. Site- and region-specific studies suggest that large trees, which play keystone roles in forests and can be disproportionately important to ecosystem carbon storage and hydrology, exhibit greater sensitivity to drought than small trees. Here, we synthesize data on tree growth and mortality collected during 40 drought events in forests worldwide to see whether this size-dependent sensitivity to drought holds more widely. We find that droughts consistently had a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality rates of larger trees. Moreover, drought-related mortality increased with tree size in 65% of the droughts examined, especially when community-wide mortality was high or when bark beetles were present. The more pronounced drought sensitivity of larger trees could be underpinned by greater inherent vulnerability to hydraulic stress, the higher radiation and evaporative demand experienced by exposed crowns, and the tendency for bark beetles to preferentially attack larger trees. We suggest that future droughts will have a more detrimental impact on the growth and mortality of larger trees, potentially exacerbating feedbacks to climate change.

  6. Topological rearrangements and local search method for tandem duplication trees.

    PubMed

    Bertrand, Denis; Gascuel, Olivier

    2005-01-01

    The problem of reconstructing the duplication history of a set of tandemly repeated sequences was first introduced by Fitch . Many recent studies deal with this problem, showing the validity of the unequal recombination model proposed by Fitch, describing numerous inference algorithms, and exploring the combinatorial properties of these new mathematical objects, which are duplication trees. In this paper, we deal with the topological rearrangement of these trees. Classical rearrangements used in phylogeny (NNI, SPR, TBR, ...) cannot be applied directly on duplication trees. We show that restricting the neighborhood defined by the SPR (Subtree Pruning and Regrafting) rearrangement to valid duplication trees, allows exploring the whole duplication tree space. We use these restricted rearrangements in a local search method which improves an initial tree via successive rearrangements. This method is applied to the optimization of parsimony and minimum evolution criteria. We show through simulations that this method improves all existing programs for both reconstructing the topology of the true tree and recovering its duplication events. We apply this approach to tandemly repeated human Zinc finger genes and observe that a much better duplication tree is obtained by our method than using any other program.

  7. Site restoration: Estimation of attributable costs from plutonium-dispersal accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Chanin, D.I.; Murfin, W.B.

    1996-05-01

    A nuclear weapons accident is an extremely unlikely event due to the extensive care taken in operations. However, under some hypothetical accident conditions, plutonium might be dispersed to the environment. This would result in costs being incurred by the government to remediate the site and compensate for losses. This study is a multi-disciplinary evaluation of the potential scope of the post-accident response that includes technical factors, current and proposed legal requirements and constraints, as well as social/political factors that could influence decision making. The study provides parameters that can be used to assess economic costs for accidents postulated to occur in urban areas, Midwest farmland, Western rangeland, and forest. Per-area remediation costs have been estimated, using industry-standard methods, for both expedited and extended remediation. Expedited remediation costs have been evaluated for highways, airports, and urban areas. Extended remediation costs have been evaluated for all land uses except highways and airports. The inclusion of cost estimates in risk assessments, together with the conventional estimation of doses and health effects, allows a fuller understanding of the post-accident environment. The insights obtained can be used to minimize economic risks by evaluation of operational and design alternatives, and through development of improved capabilities for accident response.

  8. Bibliography for nuclear criticality accident experience, alarm systems, and emergency management

    SciTech Connect

    Putman, V.L.

    1995-09-01

    The characteristics, detection, and emergency management of nuclear criticality accidents outside reactors has been an important component of criticality safety for as long as the need for this specialized safety discipline has been recognized. The general interest and importance of such topics receives special emphasis because of the potentially lethal, albeit highly localized, effects of criticality accidents and because of heightened public and regulatory concerns for any undesirable event in nuclear and radiological fields. This bibliography lists references which are potentially applicable to or interesting for criticality alarm, detection, and warning systems; criticality accident emergency management; and their associated programs. The lists are annotated to assist bibliography users in identifying applicable: industry and regulatory guidance and requirements, with historical development information and comments; criticality accident characteristics, consequences, experiences, and responses; hazard-, risk-, or safety-analysis criteria; CAS design and qualification criteria; CAS calibration, maintenance, repair, and testing criteria; experiences of CAS designers and maintainers; criticality accident emergency management (planning, preparedness, response, and recovery) requirements and guidance; criticality accident emergency management experience, plans, and techniques; methods and tools for analysis; and additional bibliographies.

  9. A Serious Game for Traffic Accident Investigators

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Binsubaih, Ahmed; Maddock, Steve; Romano, Daniela

    2006-01-01

    In Dubai, traffic accidents kill one person every 37 hours and injure one person every 3 hours. Novice traffic accident investigators in the Dubai police force are expected to "learn by doing" in this intense environment. Currently, they use no alternative to the real world in order to practice. This paper argues for the use of an alternative…

  10. Normal Accident at Three Mile Island.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perrow, Charles

    1981-01-01

    Discusses some aspects of the accident at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant. Explains a number of factors involved including the type of accident, warnings, design and equipment failure, operator error, and negative synergy. Presents alternatives to systems with catastrophic potential. (MK)

  11. 48 CFR 36.513 - Accident prevention.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Accident prevention. 36.513 Section 36.513 Federal Acquisition Regulations System FEDERAL ACQUISITION REGULATION SPECIAL... prevention. (a) The contracting officer shall insert the clause at 52.236-13, Accident Prevention,...

  12. Global estimates of fatal occupational accidents.

    PubMed

    Takala, J

    1999-09-01

    Data on occupational accidents are not available from all countries in the world. Furthermore, underreporting, limited coverage by reporting and compensation schemes, and non-harmonized accident recording and notification systems undermine efforts to obtain worldwide information on occupational accidents. This paper presents a method and new estimated global figures of fatal accidents at work by region. The fatal occupational accident rates reported to the International Labour Office are extended to the total employed workforce in countries and regions. For areas not covered by the reported information, rates from other countries that have similar or comparable conditions are applied. In 1994, an average estimated fatal occupational accident rate in the whole world was 14.0 per 100,000 workers, and the total estimated number of fatal occupational accidents was 335,000. The rates are different for individual countries and regions and for separate branches of economic activity. In conclusion, fatal occupational accident figures are higher than previously estimated. The new estimates can be gradually improved by obtaining and adding data from countries where information is not yet available. Sectoral estimates for at least key economic branches in individual countries would further increase the accuracy.

  13. 22 CFR 102.8 - Reporting accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... Accidents Abroad § 102.8 Reporting accidents. (a) To airline and Civil Aeronautics Administration representatives. If a scheduled United States air carrier is involved the airline representatives concerned will... promptly to the nearest office of the airline concerned and to the nearest office of the Civil...

  14. 22 CFR 102.8 - Reporting accidents.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... Accidents Abroad § 102.8 Reporting accidents. (a) To airline and Civil Aeronautics Administration representatives. If a scheduled United States air carrier is involved the airline representatives concerned will... promptly to the nearest office of the airline concerned and to the nearest office of the Civil...

  15. Aircraft accidents.method of analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1937-01-01

    This report is a revision of NACA-TR-357. It was prepared by the Committee on Aircraft Accidents. The purpose of this report is to provide a basis for the classification and comparison of aircraft accidents, both civil and military.

  16. The work of the South Manchester Accident Rescue Team (SMART).

    PubMed

    Redmond, A D

    1990-01-01

    Skills acquired in the hospital do not necessarily translate to the scene of an accident. However, training in certain hospital specialties, particularly accident and emergency medicine, will expose doctors to dealing with very ill patients in a less rigidly structured environment. The operating theatre is a disciplined and controlled environment. Skill in anaesthesia, monitoring and operating, if tested only in these circumstances may be found to be gravely inadequate when exposed to the fluctuant and hostile environment at the site. Doctors who wish to do this sort of work or are designated to do it, must undergo regular and frequent training, especially if they are not trained in accident and emergency departments. This has long been recognised by the British Association for Immediate Care. In combination with the Royal College of Surgeons of Edinburgh they have now established a diploma in Immediate Medical Care. In urban areas the need for a doctor to attend at the scene of an accident is usually limited to entrapment. These occasions are likely to be infrequent and this can result in a lack of preparedness for such events. Interhospital transfer, primarily from peripheral hospitals to the specialist services of a teaching hospital, often involves critically ill and injured patients. The management of these cases by the mobile team provides regular, frequent exposure to working in a 'hostile' environment. Relationships with the rescue services are developed and staff become familiar with equipment and call-out procedures. The care of transported patients is improved. None of our patients have died in transit or within 6 h of arrival at base.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  17. Commercial SNF Accident Release Fractions

    SciTech Connect

    J. Schulz

    2004-11-05

    The purpose of this analysis is to specify and document the total and respirable fractions for radioactive materials that could be potentially released from an accident at the repository involving commercial spent nuclear fuel (SNF) in a dry environment. The total and respirable release fractions are used to support the preclosure licensing basis for the repository. The total release fraction is defined as the fraction of total commercial SNF assembly inventory, typically expressed as an activity inventory (e.g., curies), of a given radionuclide that is released to the environment from a waste form. Radionuclides are released from the inside of breached fuel rods (or pins) and from the detachment of radioactive material (crud) from the outside surfaces of fuel rods and other components of fuel assemblies. The total release fraction accounts for several mechanisms that tend to retain, retard, or diminish the amount of radionuclides that are available for transport to dose receptors or otherwise can be shown to reduce exposure of receptors to radiological releases. The total release fraction includes a fraction of airborne material that is respirable and could result in inhalation doses; this subset of the total release fraction is referred to as the respirable release fraction. Accidents may involve waste forms characterized as: (1) bare unconfined intact fuel assemblies, (2) confined intact fuel assemblies, or (3) canistered failed commercial SNF. Confined intact commercial SNF assemblies at the repository are contained in shipping casks, canisters, or waste packages. Four categories of failed commercial SNF are identified: (1) mechanically and cladding-penetration damaged commercial SNF, (2) consolidated/reconstituted assemblies, (3) fuel rods, pieces, and debris, and (4) nonfuel components. It is assumed that failed commercial SNF is placed into waste packages with a mesh screen at each end (CRWMS M&O 1999). In contrast to bare unconfined fuel assemblies, the

  18. Transformational Events

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Denning, Peter J.; Hiles, John E.

    2006-01-01

    Transformational Events is a new pedagogic pattern that explains how innovations (and other transformations) happened. The pattern is three temporal stages: an interval of increasingly unsatisfactory ad hoc solutions to a persistent problem (the "mess"), an offer of an invention or of a new way of thinking, and a period of widespread adoption and…

  19. Maintenance Event

    Atmospheric Science Data Center

    2014-07-22

    Time:  08:00 am - 08:30 am EDT Event Impact:  Science Directorate websites will ... outage Thursday morning, 7/24, to perform upgrades to the web environment and are expected to be down for about 30 minutes. ...

  20. Arbutus unedo, Strawberry Tree

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    The Encylopedia of Fruit and Nuts is designed as a research reference source on temperate and tropical fruit and nut crops. Strawberry tree or madrone is native to the Mediterranean region of southern Europe (Arbutus unedo L., Ericaceae) with a relict population in Ireland, as well as in North Ameri...

  1. A Universal Phylogenetic Tree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Offner, Susan

    2001-01-01

    Presents a universal phylogenetic tree suitable for use in high school and college-level biology classrooms. Illustrates the antiquity of life and that all life is related, even if it dates back 3.5 billion years. Reflects important evolutionary relationships and provides an exciting way to learn about the history of life. (SAH)

  2. MPI File Tree Walk

    2007-04-30

    MPI-FTW is a scalable MPI based software application that navigates a directory tree by dynamically allocating processes to navigate sub-directories found. Upon completion, MPI-FTW provides statistics on the number of directories found, files found, and time to complete. Inaddition, commands can be executed at each directory level.

  3. Tree-Ties.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gresczyk, Rick

    Created to help students understand how plants were used for food, for medicine, and for arts and crafts among the Ojibwe (Chippewa) Indians, the game Tree-Ties combines earth and social sciences within a specific culture. The game requires mutual respect, understanding, and agreement to succeed. Sounding like the word "treaties", the title is a…

  4. The Medicine Tree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brokenleg, Martin

    2000-01-01

    Demographic changes in population continue to bring children of different cultural backgrounds to classrooms. This article provides suggestions teachers and counselors can use to bridge cultures. Using the parable of a medicine tree, it explains how no society can endure without caring for its young. (Author/JDM)

  5. Phylogenics & Tree-Thinking

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Baum, David A.; Offner, Susan

    2008-01-01

    Phylogenetic trees, which are depictions of the inferred evolutionary relationships among a set of species, now permeate almost all branches of biology and are appearing in increasing numbers in biology textbooks. While few state standards explicitly require knowledge of phylogenetics, most require some knowledge of evolutionary biology, and many…

  6. Tree theorem for inflation

    SciTech Connect

    Weinberg, Steven

    2008-09-15

    It is shown that the generating function for tree graphs in the ''in-in'' formalism may be calculated by solving the classical equations of motion subject to certain constraints. This theorem is illustrated by application to the evolution of a single inflaton field in a Robertson-Walker background.

  7. Digging Deeper with Trees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Growing Ideas, 2001

    2001-01-01

    Describes hands-on science areas that focus on trees. A project on leaf pigmentation involves putting crushed leaves in a test tube with solvent acetone to dissolve pigment. In another project, students learn taxonomy by sorting and classifying leaves based on observable characteristics. Includes a language arts connection. (PVD)

  8. Trees at the Center.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flannery, Maura

    1998-01-01

    Recommends introducing students to biology using a topical focus that can offer intriguing perspectives on the discipline. Describes a biology course that uses trees as a topical focus. Presents a list of literary resources and reviews student interactions. Contains 50 references. (DDR)

  9. Christmas Tree Category Manual.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, James S.; Turmel, Jon P.

    This manual provides information needed to meet the standards for pesticide applicator certification. Pests and diseases of christmas tree plantations are identified and discussed. Section one deals with weeds and woody plants and the application, formulation and effects of herbicides in controlling them. Section two discusses specific diseases…

  10. The Sacred Tree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lethbridge Univ. (Alberta).

    Designed as a text for high school students and adults, this illustrated book presents ethical concepts and teachings of Native societies throughout North America concerning the nature and possibilities of human existence. The final component of a course in self-discovery and development, the book begins with the legend of the "Sacred Tree"…

  11. Using dendrochonology to crossdate year of death in trees: limitations with stressed trees in a diffuse mortality context. (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angers, V. A.; Bergeron, Y.; Drapeau, P.

    2013-12-01

    Dendrochronological crossdating of dead trees is commonly used to reconstruct mortality patterns over time. This method assumes that the year of formation of the last growth ring corresponds to the year of the death of the tree. Trees experiencing important stress, such as defoliation, drought or senescence, may rely on very few resources to allocate to growth and may favour other vital physiological functions over growth. Even if the tree is still living, growth may thus be reduced or even supressed during a stressful event. When a tree dies following this event and that there is a lag between year of last ring production and year of actual death, crossdating underestimates the actual year of death. As ring formation is not uniform across the bole, growth may occur only in some parts of the tree and may be detectable only if multiple bole samples are analysed. In this study, we wanted to investigate how the growth patterns of dying trees influence estimation of year of death when crossdating. Our research questions were the following 1) Is there a difference (hereafter referred as 'lag') between the last year of growth ring formation in disc samples collected at different heights in dead trees? 2) If so, what is the range of magnitude of these lags? and 3) Is this magnitude range influenced by the causes of death? Sampled sites were located in northwestern Quebec (Canada), over an area overlapping the eastern mixedwood and coniferous boreal forests. Four tree species were examined: Trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.), balsam fir (Abies balsamea (L.) Mill.), jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) and black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) BSP). Trees that died following fire, self-thinning, defoliation and senescence were sampled. Two to three discs were collected on each dead tree (snags and logs) at different heights. Dendrochronological analyses were conducted to determine year of last growth ring production by crossdating. The more severe the disturbance, the

  12. [Poisoning accidents with household chemicals among children].

    PubMed

    Johannsen, H G; Mikkelsen, J B

    1994-10-01

    A review is presented of the registration of all poisoning accidents among children aged 0-6 years treated at the University Hospital, Odense, Denmark during the period 1.1.1980-31.12.1992. There were 1751 poisoning accidents of which 482 were accidents with household chemicals. There were 69 accidents with lamp oil (Petroleum) of which 67 were in the age group 0-3 years. A peak incidence in the age group 0-3 years old is seen in 1986. In 1992 the incidence is at about the same level as in 1980. The incidence in the age group 4-6 years is at almost the same level throughout the entire period. We conclude that it is necessary to continue with campaigns to prevent accidents with household chemicals among children.

  13. [Clinical examinations for the traffic accident patients].

    PubMed

    Hitosugi, Masahito

    2008-11-30

    Traffic accident is a leading cause of unintentional death and about six-thousands annually died in Japan. As about one-million of persons suffer from traffic injuries, most of them seek medical attention. Therefore, medical staffs have to find the injuries accurately and treat immediately. Furthermore, the cause of accident should also be considered; why the accident was occurred, human error of the driver? To solve these problems, clinical examinations were needed. Medical staffs have to understand the characteristics of the traffic injuries: severe and multiple blunt injuries, popular injuries can be estimated with considering the pattern of the accident. Because some of the accidents are occurred when the driver is under the influence of alcohol and other drugs, screening of these subjects should be performed. Because the public is largely unaware of the preventable nature of traffic injuries, in addition to diagnose and treat accurately, we medical staffs have to attend on the primary prevention of the traffic injuries.

  14. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal

    SciTech Connect

    Shawn St. Germain; Curtis Smith; David Schwieder; Cherie Phelan

    2012-11-01

    This paper presents a description of The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal. The Information Portal was created by the Idaho National Laboratory as part of joint NRC and DOE project to assess the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR analysis code. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal was created to collect, store, retrieve and validate information and data for use in reconstructing the Fukushima Daiichi accident. In addition to supporting the MELCOR simulations, the Portal will be the main DOE repository for all data, studies and reports related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. The data is stored in a secured (password protected and encrypted) repository that is searchable and accessible to researchers at diverse locations.

  15. Accident prevention: the health visitor's role.

    PubMed

    Levene, S

    1992-10-01

    The health of the nation white paper sets targets in five key areas for reductions in both mortality and morbidity: coronary heart disease and stroke, cancers, mental illness, HIV/Aids and sexual health and accidents. In a series of articles in Health visitor, experts will be considering the opportunities the white paper offers for community nurses in each of the key areas. Here Dr Sara Levene, medical consultant to the Child Accident Prevention Trust, considers accidents, a major problem which health visitors can do much to control. She reviews how accidents are presented in the white paper, what health visitors can do and what resources are available to help them. She offers particular advice on special accident prevention initiatives and discusses some of the opportunities created by the white paper.

  16. Pilot-error accidents: male vs female.

    PubMed

    Vail, G J; Ekman, L G

    1986-12-01

    In this study, general aviation accident records from the files of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), have been analysed by gender to observe the number and rate of pilot-error related accidents from 1972 to 1981 inclusive. If both females and males have no difference in performance, then data would have indicated similarities of accident rates and types of injuries. Males had a higher rate of accidents than females, and a higher portion of the male accidents resulted in fatalities or serious injuries than for females. Type of certificate, age, total flight time, flight time in type of aircraft, phase of operation, category of flying, degree of injury, specific cause factors, cause factor miscellaneous acts/conditions were analysed, taking the total number of United States Active Civilian General Aviation Pilots into consideration. The data did indicate a difference in all variables.

  17. Human Factors in Cabin Accident Investigations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chute, Rebecca D.; Rosekind, Mark R. (Technical Monitor)

    1996-01-01

    Human factors has become an integral part of the accident investigation protocol. However, much of the investigative process remains focussed on the flight deck, airframe, and power plant systems. As a consequence, little data has been collected regarding the human factors issues within and involving the cabin during an accident. Therefore, the possibility exists that contributing factors that lie within that domain may be overlooked. The FAA Office of Accident Investigation is sponsoring a two-day workshop on cabin safety accident investigation. This course, within the workshop, will be of two hours duration and will explore relevant areas of human factors research. Specifically, the three areas of discussion are: Information transfer and resource management, fatigue and other physical stressors, and the human/machine interface. Integration of these areas will be accomplished by providing a suggested checklist of specific cabin-related human factors questions for investigators to probe following an accident.

  18. [Cerebral vascular accidents in French Polynesia].

    PubMed

    Gras, C; Papouin, G; Prigent, D; Beaugendre, E; Lionet, P; Brodin, S; Legall, R; Marjou, F; Spiegel, A; Gendron, Y

    1992-01-01

    The authors report on the results of a survey on cardiovascular accidents hospitalized between 01 April 1990 and 31 January 1991 carried out in the Services of Medicine and Cardiology in the Territorial Hospital Center of Papeete. This survey was: 56 cardiovascular accidents: 1/4 (hemorrhagic and 3/4 (42) ischemic. Mean age 59 (extremes 23-86). 36 males (64%); 20 females (36%). 50 Polynesians; 6 Chinese people. Among the risk factors recorded, 38 (68%) were hypertensed patients; 17 (30%) were due to tabagism and 15 (25%) to diabetes; 3 (5%) are known to be carriers of a hypercholesterolemia. 59% of the patients had no case history; 25% the cardiovascular accidents have been observed in patients with cardiopathy; 12.5% are recurrent cardiovascular accidents. Clinically, 5 transient ischemic accidents (12%) out of 42 cardiovascular ischemic accidents. High arterial tension was recognized in 12/14 (86%) of hemorrhagic cardiovascular accidents and in 26/42 (62%) of ischemic cardiovascular accidents. In 42 ischemic cardiovascular accidents, 31 patients suffered from cardiopathy (74%) of which 15 (36%) presented an embolic cardiopathy. Interest of echography and electrocardiogram are discussed. Ultrasonic exam of carotid vessels was found abnormal in almost half of the cases when utilized (12/26). Finally, etiological diagnosis was certain in 17 cases, of presumption in 16 cases, and in 9 cases, it was not possible to precise any cardiovascular etiology. Tomodensitometric tests are discussed. 86% of the ischemic cardiovascular accident were treated with anticoagulants/thrombocyte antiagglutination. 24% of the patients died, 50% recovered incompletely and 26% completely. PMID:1602953

  19. [Cooperative program for domestic accidents of children in the department of Doubs. Epidemiological aspects].

    PubMed

    Baudier, F; Marchais, M; Bourderont, D; Pierot, G; Pinochet, C; Laroze, M

    1988-01-01

    This work presents the results of a survey carried out among 818 families in the department of the Doubs. Each family had a child between one and 6 years of age. Its aim was to come as close as possible to exploring morbidity in accidents by questioning parents about the accidents which took place a month before the investigation, and to study the influence of certain psychosocial factors on this pathology, for example the attitude of parents confronted with risks. The annual accident morbidity rate was 1,056 accidents per 1,000 children. In other words, each child has, on the average, one accident per year. Even though no significant difference between town and country has been noted, serious accidents occurred more frequently in rural areas. This may be explained by the way dangerous products are stored (medicines, household cleaning and agricultural products), looser parental surveillance (predominance at games outside home), as well as the fact that children are more often in the kitchen when they are indoors, which is potentially the most dangerous room. Classical notions of disturbing events occurring prior to the accident (divorce, moving, a.s.o.) and children who are "repeat offenders" have also been noticed. The examination of parental attitude in dealing with the possibility of accidents (instructive, lax or repressive) did not allow us to demonstrate in any significant way the influence of these attitudes on accidental morbidity. On the other hand the so-called "instructive" parents are the ones who best put away the poisonous products. There is therefore, an encouraging connection between attitude and behavior. PMID:3064731

  20. Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

    SciTech Connect

    Genn Saji

    2006-07-01

    The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessons learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and deposition

  1. Accidents in the context of study among university students--a multicentre cross-sectional study in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany.

    PubMed

    Faller, Gudrun; Mikolajczyk, Rafael T; Akmatov, Manas K; Meier, Sabine; Krämer, Alexander

    2010-03-01

    Knowledge about prevalence and patterns of accidents among university students is scarce. The aims of the present health survey were to assess the general prevalence of accidents among university students, to describe the specific kinds of accidents, and to analyse associated factors. A multicentre cross-sectional health survey was conducted at 12 universities and 4 universities of applied sciences in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), Germany. The response rate was 88%. The self-administered questionnaire covered multiple areas of health, behaviours and a specific module for accidents. In total, 252 (8.8%) out of 2855 students (aged 17-26 years) had experienced an accident in the context of their studies. Contusions, compressions and strains constituted more than 50% of all kinds of injuries, while fractures, irritations, burns or acid burns were reported less frequently. The cumulative risk of experiencing an accident was increasing linearly with the study duration, indicating an absence of a specific vulnerable period. Nearly 60% of all accidents took place during study-related sports activities, and about a quarter of all accidents occurred on the way to or from university. Only few accidents occurred on university floors, in lecture rooms or on stairways. Further studies are needed to assess more in depth the causes of accidents and the situation immediately preceding the event before making specific recommendations for prevention.

  2. A new approach to modeling tree rainfall interception

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xiao, Qingfu; McPherson, E. Gregory; Ustin, Susan L.; Grismer, Mark E.

    2000-12-01

    A three-dimensional physically based stochastic model was developed to describe canopy rainfall interception processes at desired spatial and temporal resolutions. Such model development is important to understand these processes because forest canopy interception may exceed 59% of annual precipitation in old growth trees. The model describes the interception process from a single leaf, to a branch segment, and then up to the individual tree level. It takes into account rainfall, meteorology, and canopy architecture factors as explicit variables. Leaf and stem surface roughness, architecture, and geometric shape control both leaf drip and stemflow. Model predictions were evaluated using actual interception data collected for two mature open grown trees, a 9-year-old broadleaf deciduous pear tree (Pyrus calleryana "Bradford" or Callery pear) and an 8-year-old broadleaf evergreen oak tree (Quercus suber or cork oak). When simulating 18 rainfall events for the oak tree and 16 rainfall events for the pear tree, the model over estimated interception loss by 4.5% and 3.0%, respectively, while stemflow was under estimated by 0.8% and 3.3%, and throughfall was under estimated by 3.7% for the oak tree and over estimated by 0.3% for the pear tree. A model sensitivity analysis indicates that canopy surface storage capacity had the greatest influence on interception, and interception losses were sensitive to leaf and stem surface area indices. Among rainfall factors, interception losses relative to gross precipitation were most sensitive to rainfall amount. Rainfall incident angle had a significant effect on total precipitation intercepting the projected surface area. Stemflow was sensitive to stem segment and leaf zenith angle distributions. Enhanced understanding of interception loss dynamics should lead to improved urban forest ecosystem management.

  3. [A study on fall accident].

    PubMed

    Lee, H S; Kim, M J

    1997-01-01

    The study was conducted from November 1995 to May 1996 at the one general hospital in Seoul. The total subjects of this study were 412 patients who have the experience of fall accident, among them 31 was who have fallen during hospitalization and 381 was who visited emergency room and out patient clinic. The purposes of this study were to determine the characteristics, risk factors and results of fall accident and to suggest the nursing strategies for prevention of fall. Data were collected by reviewing the medical records and interviewing with the fallers and their family members. For data analysis spss/pc+ program was utilized for descriptive statistics, adjusted standardized X2-test. The results of this study were as follows: 1) Total subjects were 412 fallers, of which 245 (59.5%) were men and 167 (40.5%) were women. Age were 0-14 years 79 (19.2%), 15-44 years 125 (30.4%), 45-64 years 104 (25.2%), over 65 years 104 (25.2%). 2) There was significant association between age and the sexes (X2 = 39.17, P = 0.00). 3) There was significant association between age and history of falls (X2 = 44.41, P = .00). And history of falls in the elderly was significantly associated with falls. 4) There was significant association with age and medical diagnosis (X2 = 140.66, P = .00), chief medical diagnosis were hypertension (34), diabetes mellitus (22), arthritis (11), stroke (8), fracture (7), pulmonary tuberculosis (6), dementia (5) and cataract (5). 5) There was significant association between age and intrinsic factors: cognitive impairment, mobility impairment, insomnia, emotional problems, urinary difficulty, visual impairments, hearing impairments, use of drugs (sedatives, antihypertensive drugs, diuretics, antidepressants) (P < 0.05). But there was no significant association between age and dizziness (X2 = 2.87, P = .41). 6) 15.3% of total fallers were drunken state when they were fallen. 7) Environmental factors of fall accident were unusual posture (50.9%), slips (35

  4. Waveform correlation by tree matching.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Y C; Lu, S Y

    1985-03-01

    A waveform correlation scheme is presented. The scheme consists of four parts: 1) the representation of waveforms by trees, 2) the definition of basic operations on tree nodes and tree distance, 3) a tree matching algorithm, and 4) a backtracking procedure to find the best node-to-node correlation. This correlation scheme has been implemented. Results show that the scheme has the capability of handling distortions that result from stretching or shrinking of intervals or from missing intervals.

  5. The Hopi Fruit Tree Book.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nyhuis, Jane

    Referring as often as possible to traditional Hopi practices and to materials readily available on the reservation, the illustrated booklet provides information on the care and maintenance of young fruit trees. An introduction to fruit trees explains the special characteristics of new trees, e.g., grafting, planting pits, and watering. The…

  6. Building up rhetorical structure trees

    SciTech Connect

    Marcu, D.

    1996-12-31

    I use the distinction between the nuclei and the satellites that pertain to discourse relations to introduce a compositionality criterion for discourse trees. I provide a first-order formalization of rhetorical structure trees and, on its basis, I derive an algorithm that constructs all the valid rhetorical trees that can be associated with a given discourse.

  7. New Life From Dead Trees

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    DeGraaf, Richard M.

    1978-01-01

    There are numerous bird species that will nest only in dead or dying trees. Current forestry practices include clearing forests of these snags, or dead trees. This practice is driving many species out of the forests. An illustrated example of bird succession in and on a tree is given. (MA)

  8. Our Air: Unfit for Trees.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dochinger, Leon S.

    To help urban, suburban, and rural tree owners know about air pollution's effects on trees and their tolerance and intolerance to pollutants, the USDA Forest Service has prepared this booklet. It answers the following questions about atmospheric pollution: Where does it come from? What can it do to trees? and What can we do about it? In addition,…

  9. The Re-Think Tree.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gear, Jim

    1993-01-01

    The Re-Think Tree is a simple framework to help individuals assess and improve their behaviors related to environmental issues. The branches of the tree in order of priority are refuse, reduce, re-use, and recycle. Roots of the tree include such things as public opinion, education, and watchdog groups. (KS)

  10. MORT (Management Oversight and Risk Tree) based risk management

    SciTech Connect

    Briscoe, G.J.

    1990-02-01

    Risk Management is the optimization of safety programs. This requires a formal systems approach to hazards identification, risk quantification, and resource allocation/risk acceptance as opposed to case-by-case decisions. The Management Oversight and Risk Tree (MORT) has gained wide acceptance as a comprehensive formal systems approach covering all aspects of risk management. It (MORT) is a comprehensive analytical procedure that provides a disciplined method for determining the causes and contributing factors of major accidents. Alternatively, it serves as a tool to evaluate the quality of an existing safety system. While similar in many respects to fault tree analysis, MORT is more generalized and presents over 1500 specific elements of an ideal ''universal'' management program for optimizing occupational safety.

  11. Estimating vehicle roadside encroachment frequency using accident prediction models

    SciTech Connect

    Miaou, S.-P.

    1996-07-01

    The existing data to support the development of roadside encroachment- based accident models are extremely limited and largely outdated. Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration and Transportation Research Board, several roadside safety projects have attempted to address this issue by providing rather comprehensive data collection plans and conducting pilot data collection efforts. It is clear from the results of these studies that the required field data collection efforts will be expensive. Furthermore, the validity of any field collected encroachment data may be questionable because of the technical difficulty to distinguish intentional from unintentional encroachments. This paper proposes an alternative method for estimating the basic roadside encroachment data without actually field collecting them. The method is developed by exploring the probabilistic relationships between a roadside encroachment event and a run-off-the-road event With some mild assumptions, the method is capable of providing a wide range of basic encroachment data from conventional accident prediction models. To illustrate the concept and use of such a method, some basic encroachment data are estimated for rural two-lane undivided roads. In addition, the estimated encroachment data are compared with the existing collected data. The illustration shows that the method described in this paper can be a viable approach to estimating basic encroachment data without actually collecting them which can be very costly.

  12. An Accident Precursor Analysis Process Tailored for NASA Space Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Groen, Frank; Stamatelatos, Michael; Dezfuli, Homayoon; Maggio, Gaspare

    2010-01-01

    Accident Precursor Analysis (APA) serves as the bridge between existing risk modeling activities, which are often based on historical or generic failure statistics, and system anomalies, which provide crucial information about the failure mechanisms that are actually operative in the system and which may differ in frequency or type from those in the various models. These discrepancies between the models (perceived risk) and the system (actual risk) provide the leading indication of an underappreciated risk. This paper presents an APA process developed specifically for NASA Earth-to-Orbit space systems. The purpose of the process is to identify and characterize potential sources of system risk as evidenced by anomalous events which, although not necessarily presenting an immediate safety impact, may indicate that an unknown or insufficiently understood risk-significant condition exists in the system. Such anomalous events are considered accident precursors because they signal the potential for severe consequences that may occur in the future, due to causes that are discernible from their occurrence today. Their early identification allows them to be integrated into the overall system risk model used to intbrm decisions relating to safety.

  13. Overview of the U.S. DOE Accident Tolerant Fuel Development Program

    SciTech Connect

    Jon Carmack; Frank Goldner; Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton; Lance L. Snead

    2013-09-01

    The United States Fuel Cycle Research and Development Advanced Fuels Campaign has been given the responsibility to conduct research and development on enhanced accident tolerant fuels with the goal of performing a lead test assembly or lead test rod irradiation in a commercial reactor by 2022. The Advanced Fuels Campaign has defined fuels with enhanced accident tolerance as those that, in comparison with the standard UO2-Zircaloy system currently used by the nuclear industry, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the reactor core for a considerably longer time period (depending on the LWR system and accident scenario) while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations and operational transients, as well as design-basis and beyond design-basis events. This paper provides an overview of the FCRD Accident Tolerant Fuel program. The ATF attributes will be presented and discussed. Attributes identified as potentially important to enhance accident tolerance include reduced hydrogen generation (resulting from cladding oxidation), enhanced fission product retention under severe accident conditions, reduced cladding reaction with high-temperature steam, and improved fuel-cladding interaction for enhanced performance under extreme conditions. To demonstrate the enhanced accident tolerance of candidate fuel designs, metrics must be developed and evaluated using a combination of design features for a given LWR design, potential improvements to that design, and the design of an advanced fuel/cladding system. The aforementioned attributes provide qualitative guidance for parameters that will be considered for fuels with enhanced accident tolerance. It may be unnecessary to improve in all attributes and it is likely that some attributes or combination of attributes provide meaningful gains in accident tolerance, while others may provide only marginal benefits. Thus, an initial step in program implementation will be the development of quantitative

  14. Impact of spatial kinetics in severe accident analysis for a large HWR

    SciTech Connect

    Morris, E.E.

    1994-03-01

    The impact on spatial kinetics on the analysis of severe accidents initiated by the unprotected withdrawal of one or more control rods is investigated for a large heavy water reactor. Large inter- and intra-assembly power shifts are observed, and the importance of detailed geometrical modeling of fuel assemblies is demonstrated. Neglect of space-time effects is shown to lead to erroneous estimates of safety margins, and of accident consequences in the event safety margins are exceeded. The results and conclusions are typical of what would be expected for any large, loosely coupled core.

  15. MELCOR code analysis of a severe accident LOCA at Peach Bottom Plant

    SciTech Connect

    Carbajo, J.J. )

    1993-01-01

    A design-basis loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) concurrent with complete loss of the emergency core cooling systems (ECCSs) has been analyzed for the Peach Bottom atomic station unit 2 using the MELCOR code, version 1.8.1. The purpose of this analysis is to calculate best-estimate times for the important events of this accident sequence and best-estimate source terms. Calculated pressures and temperatures at the beginning of the transient have been compared to results from the Peach Bottom final safety analysis report (FSAR). MELCOR-calculated source terms have been compared to source terms reported in the NUREG-1465 draft.

  16. A Comprehensive Review of Rollover Accidents Involving Vehicles Equipped with Electronic Stability Control (ESC) Systems

    PubMed Central

    Padmanaban, Jeya; Shields, Leland E.; Scheibe, Robert R.; Eyges, Vitaly E.

    2008-01-01

    This study investigated 478 police accident reports from 9 states to examine and characterize rollover crashes involving ESC-equipped vehicles. The focus was on the sequence of critical events leading to loss of control and rollover, and the interactions between the accident, driver, and environment. Results show that, while ESC is effective in reducing loss of control leading to certain rollover crashes, its effectiveness is diminished in others, particularly when the vehicle departs the roadway or when environmental factors such as slick road conditions or driver factors such as speeding, distraction, fatigue, impairment, or overcorrection are present. PMID:19026219

  17. Forensic kinesiology: foundations of an interdiscipline for accident/crime investigation.

    PubMed

    Pelham, Thomas W; Holt, Laurence E; Holt, Jason

    2010-06-01

    Kinesiology is the study of human movement, and comprises several disciplines, each devoted to a specific aspect of human activity, each with its own set of principles and methods to assess and analyze movement. Forensic kinesiology is the application of kinesiological techniques to accident/crime investigation; specialists in this field can use various tools and procedures to measure, analyze, model, and determine the movement sequences involved in events under investigation. This article will highlight major subdisciplines of kinesiology most relevant to forensics, present the key assessment and analytical tools used by kinesiologists, and demonstrate how both the principles and the practices of kinesiology can be applied to accident/crime investigation.

  18. An analysis of aircraft accidents involving fires

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lucha, G. V.; Robertson, M. A.; Schooley, F. A.

    1975-01-01

    All U. S. Air Carrier accidents between 1963 and 1974 were studied to assess the extent of total personnel and aircraft damage which occurred in accidents and in accidents involving fire. Published accident reports and NTSB investigators' factual backup files were the primary sources of data. Although it was frequently not possible to assess the relative extent of fire-caused damage versus impact damage using the available data, the study established upper and lower bounds for deaths and damage due specifically to fire. In 12 years there were 122 accidents which involved airframe fires. Eighty-seven percent of the fires occurred after impact, and fuel leakage from ruptured tanks or severed lines was the most frequently cited cause. A cost analysis was performed for 300 serious accidents, including 92 serious accidents which involved fire. Personal injury costs were outside the scope of the cost analysis, but data on personnel injury judgements as well as settlements received from the CAB are included for reference.

  19. Accidents in Canada: mortality and hospitalization.

    PubMed

    Riley, R; Paddon, P

    1989-01-01

    For Canadians under 45, accidents are the leading cause of both death and hospitalization. For the Canadian population as a whole, accidents rank fourth as a cause of death, after cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and respiratory disease. This article analyzes accident mortality and hospitalization in Canada using age-specific rates, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and potential years of life lost (PYLL). The six major causes of accidental death for men are motor vehicle traffic accidents (MVTA), falls, drowning, fires, suffocation and poisoning. For women, the order is slightly different: MVTA, falls, fires, suffocation, poisoning and drowning. From 1971 to 1986, age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) for accidents decreased by 44% for men and 39% for women. The largest decrease occurred in the under 15 age group. Accidents accounted for 11.5% of total hospital days in 1985, and 8% of hospital discharges. Because young people have the highest rates of accidental death, potential years of life lost (PYLL) are almost as high for accidents as for cardiovascular disease, although CVD deaths outnumbered accidental deaths by almost five to one in 1985. PMID:2491351

  20. Road accidents and business cycles in Spain.

    PubMed

    Rodríguez-López, Jesús; Marrero, Gustavo A; González, Rosa Marina; Leal-Linares, Teresa

    2016-11-01

    This paper explores the causes behind the downturn in road accidents in Spain across the last decade. Possible causes are grouped into three categories: Institutional factors (a Penalty Point System, PPS, dating from 2006), technological factors (active safety and passive safety of vehicles), and macroeconomic factors (the Great recession starting in 2008, and an increase in fuel prices during the spring of 2008). The PPS has been blessed by incumbent authorities as responsible for the decline of road fatalities in Spain. Using cointegration techniques, the GDP growth rate, the fuel price, the PPS, and technological items embedded in motor vehicles appear to be statistically significantly related with accidents. Importantly, PPS is found to be significant in reducing fatal accidents. However, PPS is not significant for non-fatal accidents. In view of these results, we conclude that road accidents in Spain are very sensitive to the business cycle, and that the PPS influenced the severity (fatality) rather than the quantity of accidents in Spain. Importantly, technological items help explain a sizable fraction in accidents downturn, their effects dating back from the end of the nineties.