Accuracy of Virginia accident data.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-09-01

The sources, magnitude, and characteristics of the inaccuracies in Virginia's police-reported accident data were examined. Five techniques were used to (1) determine how accident data are documented, (2) examine the contents of the accident report us...

Modelling Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hales, Jason Dean; Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence

2016-05-01

The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is a three-year project to perform research on two accident tolerant concepts. The final outcome of the ATF HIP will be an in-depth report to the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) giving a recommendation on whether eithermore » of the two concepts should be included in their lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The two ATF concepts under investigation in the HIP are uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory), a comprehensive multiscale approach to modeling is being used that includes atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. Model development and fuel performance analysis are critical since a full suite of experimental studies will not be complete before AFC must prioritize concepts for focused development. In this paper, we present simulations of the two proposed accident tolerance fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). We also outline the multiscale modelling approach being employed. Considerable additional work is required prior to preparing the recommendation report for the

FLAMMABLE GAS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KRIPPS, L.J.

2005-02-18

This document describes the qualitative evaluation of frequency and consequences for double shell tank (DST) and single shell tank (SST) representative flammable gas accidents and associated hazardous conditions without controls. The evaluation indicated that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRS were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Discussion on the resulting control decisions is included. This technical basis document was developed to support of the Tank Farms Documented Safety Analysis (DSA) and describes the risk binning process for the flammable gas representative accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions. The purpose of the risk binning process is to determine the needmore » for safety-significant structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls for a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition based on an evaluation of the event frequency and consequence.« less

Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

2014-09-01

In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

Contributing factors in construction accidents.

PubMed

Haslam, R A; Hide, S A; Gibb, A G F; Gyi, D E; Pavitt, T; Atkinson, S; Duff, A R

2005-07-01

This overview paper draws together findings from previous focus group research and studies of 100 individual construction accidents. Pursuing issues raised by the focus groups, the accident studies collected qualitative information on the circumstances of each incident and the causal influences involved. Site based data collection entailed interviews with accident-involved personnel and their supervisor or manager, inspection of the accident location, and review of appropriate documentation. Relevant issues from the site investigations were then followed up with off-site stakeholders, including designers, manufacturers and suppliers. Levels of involvement of key factors in the accidents were: problems arising from workers or the work team (70% of accidents), workplace issues (49%), shortcomings with equipment (including PPE) (56%), problems with suitability and condition of materials (27%), and deficiencies with risk management (84%). Employing an ergonomics systems approach, a model is proposed, indicating the manner in which originating managerial, design and cultural factors shape the circumstances found in the work place, giving rise to the acts and conditions which, in turn, lead to accidents. It is argued that attention to the originating influences will be necessary for sustained improvement in construction safety to be achieved.

Development of an accident duration prediction model on the Korean Freeway Systems.

PubMed

Chung, Younshik

2010-01-01

Since duration prediction is one of the most important steps in an accident management process, there have been several approaches developed for modeling accident duration. This paper presents a model for the purpose of accident duration prediction based on accurately recorded and large accident dataset from the Korean Freeway Systems. To develop the duration prediction model, this study utilizes the log-logistic accelerated failure time (AFT) metric model and a 2-year accident duration dataset from 2006 to 2007. Specifically, the 2006 dataset is utilized to develop the prediction model and then, the 2007 dataset was employed to test the temporal transferability of the 2006 model. Although the duration prediction model has limitations such as large prediction error due to the individual differences of the accident treatment teams in terms of clearing similar accidents, the results from the 2006 model yielded a reasonable prediction based on the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) scale. Additionally, the results of the statistical test for temporal transferability indicated that the estimated parameters in the duration prediction model are stable over time. Thus, this temporal stability suggests that the model may have potential to be used as a basis for making rational diversion and dispatching decisions in the event of an accident. Ultimately, such information will beneficially help in mitigating traffic congestion due to accidents.

Discussion on accuracy degree evaluation of accident velocity reconstruction model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zou, Tiefang; Dai, Yingbiao; Cai, Ming; Liu, Jike

In order to investigate the applicability of accident velocity reconstruction model in different cases, a method used to evaluate accuracy degree of accident velocity reconstruction model is given. Based on pre-crash velocity in theory and calculation, an accuracy degree evaluation formula is obtained. With a numerical simulation case, Accuracy degrees and applicability of two accident velocity reconstruction models are analyzed; results show that this method is feasible in practice.

Investigating accident causation through information network modelling.

PubMed

Griffin, T G C; Young, M S; Stanton, N A

2010-02-01

Management of risk in complex domains such as aviation relies heavily on post-event investigations, requiring complex approaches to fully understand the integration of multi-causal, multi-agent and multi-linear accident sequences. The Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork methodology (EAST; Stanton et al. 2008) offers such an approach based on network models. In this paper, we apply EAST to a well-known aviation accident case study, highlighting communication between agents as a central theme and investigating the potential for finding agents who were key to the accident. Ultimately, this work aims to develop a new model based on distributed situation awareness (DSA) to demonstrate that the risk inherent in a complex system is dependent on the information flowing within it. By identifying key agents and information elements, we can propose proactive design strategies to optimize the flow of information and help work towards avoiding aviation accidents. Statement of Relevance: This paper introduces a novel application of an holistic methodology for understanding aviation accidents. Furthermore, it introduces an ongoing project developing a nonlinear and prospective method that centralises distributed situation awareness and communication as themes. The relevance of findings are discussed in the context of current ergonomic and aviation issues of design, training and human-system interaction.

WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhegang Ma

The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significantmore » damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.« less

Data mining of tree-based models to analyze freeway accident frequency.

PubMed

Chang, Li-Yen; Chen, Wen-Chieh

2005-01-01

Statistical models, such as Poisson or negative binomial regression models, have been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency for many years. However, these models have their own model assumptions and pre-defined underlying relationship between dependent and independent variables. If these assumptions are violated, the model could lead to erroneous estimation of accident likelihood. Classification and Regression Tree (CART), one of the most widely applied data mining techniques, has been commonly employed in business administration, industry, and engineering. CART does not require any pre-defined underlying relationship between target (dependent) variable and predictors (independent variables) and has been shown to be a powerful tool, particularly for dealing with prediction and classification problems. This study collected the 2001-2002 accident data of National Freeway 1 in Taiwan. A CART model and a negative binomial regression model were developed to establish the empirical relationship between traffic accidents and highway geometric variables, traffic characteristics, and environmental factors. The CART findings indicated that the average daily traffic volume and precipitation variables were the key determinants for freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies. By comparing the prediction performance between the CART and the negative binomial regression models, this study demonstrates that CART is a good alternative method for analyzing freeway accident frequencies.

Flammable gas technical basis document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-22

This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls.

Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

2016-11-01

Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

Markov switching multinomial logit model: An application to accident-injury severities.

PubMed

Malyshkina, Nataliya V; Mannering, Fred L

2009-07-01

In this study, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are proposed for statistical modeling of accident-injury severities. These models assume Markov switching over time between two unobserved states of roadway safety as a means of accounting for potential unobserved heterogeneity. The states are distinct in the sense that in different states accident-severity outcomes are generated by separate multinomial logit processes. To demonstrate the applicability of the approach, two-state Markov switching multinomial logit models are estimated for severity outcomes of accidents occurring on Indiana roads over a four-year time period. Bayesian inference methods and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations are used for model estimation. The estimated Markov switching models result in a superior statistical fit relative to the standard (single-state) multinomial logit models for a number of roadway classes and accident types. It is found that the more frequent state of roadway safety is correlated with better weather conditions and that the less frequent state is correlated with adverse weather conditions.

Flammable Gas Technical Basis Document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-07-30

This document qualitatively evaluates the frequency and consequences of DST and SST representative flammable gas accidents and associated represented hazardous conditions without controls. Based on the evaluation, it was determined that safety-significant SSCs and/or TSRs were required to prevent or mitigate flammable gas accidents. Controls were selected and the accidents re-evaluated taking credit for the controls. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from ORP.

A new approach to modeling aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Arjun Harsha

views aviation accidents as a set of hazardous states of a system (pilot and aircraft), and triggers that cause the system to move between hazardous states. I used the NTSB's accident coding manual (that contains nearly 4000 different codes) to develop a "dictionary" of hazardous states, triggers, and information codes. Then, I created the "grammar", or a set of rules, that: (1) orders the hazardous states in each accident; and, (2) links the hazardous states using the appropriate triggers. This approach: (1) provides a more correct count of the causes for accidents in the NTSB database; and, (2) checks for gaps or omissions in NTSB accident data, and fills in some of these gaps using logic-based rules. These rules also help identify and count causes for accidents that were not discernable from previous analyses of historical accident data. I apply the model to 6200 helicopter accidents that occurred in the US between 1982 and 2015. First, I identify the states and triggers that are most likely to be associated with fatal and non-fatal accidents. The results suggest that non-fatal accidents, which account for approximately 84% of the accidents, provide valuable opportunities to learn about the causes for accidents. Next, I investigate the causes of inflight loss of control using both a conventional approach and using the state-based approach. The conventional analysis provides little insight into the causal mechanism for LOC. For instance, the top cause of LOC is "aircraft control/directional control not maintained", which does not provide any insight. In contrast, the state-based analysis showed that pilots' tendency to clip objects frequently triggered LOC (16.7% of LOC accidents)--this finding was not directly discernable from conventional analyses. Finally, I investigate the causes for improper autorotations using both a conventional approach and the state-based approach. The conventional approach uses modifiers (e.g., "improper", "misjudged") associated with "24520

Documenting Bronze Age Akrotiri on Thera Using Laser Scanning, Image-Based Modelling and Geophysical Prospection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinks, I.; Wallner, M.; Kucera, M.; Verhoeven, G.; Torrejón Valdelomar, J.; Löcker, K.; Nau, E.; Sevara, C.; Aldrian, L.; Neubauer, E.; Klein, M.

2017-02-01

The excavated architecture of the exceptional prehistoric site of Akrotiri on the Greek island of Thera/Santorini is endangered by gradual decay, damage due to accidents, and seismic shocks, being located on an active volcano in an earthquake-prone area. Therefore, in 2013 and 2014 a digital documentation project has been conducted with support of the National Geographic Society in order to generate a detailed digital model of Akrotiri's architecture using terrestrial laser scanning and image-based modeling. Additionally, non-invasive geophysical prospection has been tested in order to investigate its potential to explore and map yet buried archaeological remains. This article describes the project and the generated results.

Measuring pedestrian volumes and conflicts. Volume 2, Accident prediction model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-12-01

This final report presents the findings, conclusions, and recommendations of the study conducted to model pedestrian/vehicle accidents. A group-type analysis approach for the prediction of pedestrian/vehicle accidents using pedestrian/vehicle conflic...

Severe accident modeling of a PWR core with different cladding materials

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Johnson, S. C.; Henry, R. E.; Paik, C. Y.

2012-07-01

The MAAP v.4 software has been used to model two severe accident scenarios in nuclear power reactors with three different materials as fuel cladding. The TMI-2 severe accident was modeled with Zircaloy-2 and SiC as clad material and a SBO accident in a Zion-like, 4-loop, Westinghouse PWR was modeled with Zircaloy-2, SiC, and 304 stainless steel as clad material. TMI-2 modeling results indicate that lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would result if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2 as cladding. SBO modeling results indicate that the calculated time to RCSmore » rupture would increase by approximately 20 minutes if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2. Additionally, when an extended SBO accident (RCS creep rupture failure disabled) was modeled, significantly lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would be generated by substituting SiC for Zircaloy-2 or stainless steel cladding. Because the rate of SiC oxidation reaction with elevated temperature H{sub 2}O (g) was set to 0 for this work, these results should be considered preliminary. However, the benefits of SiC as a more accident tolerant clad material have been shown and additional investigation of SiC as an LWR core material are warranted, specifically investigations of the oxidation kinetics of SiC in H{sub 2}O (g) over the range of temperatures and pressures relevant to severe accidents in LWR 's. (authors)« less

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 1: Model documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, J.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

1983-01-01

The volume 1, of a 3 volume technical memoranda which contains a documentation of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model is presented. Volume 1 contains the documentation, description of the stratospheric/tropospheric extension, user's guide, climatological boundary data, and some climate simulation studies.

Diagnostics of Loss of Coolant Accidents Using SVC and GMDH Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Sung Han; No, Young Gyu; Na, Man Gyun; Ahn, Kwang-Il; Park, Soo-Yong

2011-02-01

As a means of effectively managing severe accidents at nuclear power plants, it is important to identify and diagnose accident initiating events within a short time interval after the accidents by observing the major measured signals. The main objective of this study was to diagnose loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) using artificial intelligence techniques, such as SVC (support vector classification) and GMDH (group method of data handling). In this study, the methodologies of SVC and GMDH models were utilized to discover the break location and estimate the break size of the LOCA, respectively. The 300 accident simulation data (based on MAAP4) were used to develop the SVC and GMDH models, and the 33 test data sets were used to independently confirm whether or not the SVC and GMDH models work well. The measured signals from the reactor coolant system, steam generators, and containment at a nuclear power plant were used as inputs to the models, and the 60 sec time-integrated values of the input signals were used as inputs into the SVC and GMDH models. The simulation results confirmed that the proposed SVC model can identify the break location and the proposed GMDH models can estimate the break size accurately. In addition, even if the measurement errors exist and safety systems actuate, the proposed SVC and GMDH models can discover the break locations without a misclassification and accurately estimate the break size.

Random parameter models for accident prediction on two-lane undivided highways in India.

PubMed

Dinu, R R; Veeraragavan, A

2011-02-01

Generalized linear modeling (GLM), with the assumption of Poisson or negative binomial error structure, has been widely employed in road accident modeling. A number of explanatory variables related to traffic, road geometry, and environment that contribute to accident occurrence have been identified and accident prediction models have been proposed. The accident prediction models reported in literature largely employ the fixed parameter modeling approach, where the magnitude of influence of an explanatory variable is considered to be fixed for any observation in the population. Similar models have been proposed for Indian highways too, which include additional variables representing traffic composition. The mixed traffic on Indian highways comes with a lot of variability within, ranging from difference in vehicle types to variability in driver behavior. This could result in variability in the effect of explanatory variables on accidents across locations. Random parameter models, which can capture some of such variability, are expected to be more appropriate for the Indian situation. The present study is an attempt to employ random parameter modeling for accident prediction on two-lane undivided rural highways in India. Three years of accident history, from nearly 200 km of highway segments, is used to calibrate and validate the models. The results of the analysis suggest that the model coefficients for traffic volume, proportion of cars, motorized two-wheelers and trucks in traffic, and driveway density and horizontal and vertical curvatures are randomly distributed across locations. The paper is concluded with a discussion on modeling results and the limitations of the present study. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accident models for two-lane rural roads : segments and intersections

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-10-01

This report is a direct step for the implementation of the Accident Analysis Module in the Interactive Highway Safety Design Model (IHSDM). The Accident Analysis Module is expected to estimate the safety of two-lane rural highway characteristics for ...

Creating, documenting and sharing network models.

PubMed

Crook, Sharon M; Bednar, James A; Berger, Sandra; Cannon, Robert; Davison, Andrew P; Djurfeldt, Mikael; Eppler, Jochen; Kriener, Birgit; Furber, Steve; Graham, Bruce; Plesser, Hans E; Schwabe, Lars; Smith, Leslie; Steuber, Volker; van Albada, Sacha

2012-01-01

As computational neuroscience matures, many simulation environments are available that are useful for neuronal network modeling. However, methods for successfully documenting models for publication and for exchanging models and model components among these projects are still under development. Here we briefly review existing software and applications for network model creation, documentation and exchange. Then we discuss a few of the larger issues facing the field of computational neuroscience regarding network modeling and suggest solutions to some of these problems, concentrating in particular on standardized network model terminology, notation, and descriptions and explicit documentation of model scaling. We hope this will enable and encourage computational neuroscientists to share their models more systematically in the future.

Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1994-03-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of TRAN for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, 57(b)(1)). Third, it permits continuity inmore » model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.« less

Un document authentique pedagogique: le constat amiable (An Authentic Pedagogical Document: The Accident Report)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davoine, Jean-Pierre

1978-01-01

A discussion of the use of an accident report form, especially for practice in past tense usage. A lesson plan is outlined as follows: introduction using slides, a question-answer session between two sets of students and the actual writing of the report. (Text is in French.) (AMH)

The Viareggio LPG railway accident: event reconstruction and modeling.

PubMed

Brambilla, Sara; Manca, Davide

2010-10-15

This manuscript describes in detail the LPG accident occurred in Viareggio on June 2009 and its modeling. The accident investigation highlighted the uncertainty and complexity of assessing and modeling what happened in the congested environment close to the Viareggio railway station. Nonetheless, the analysis allowed comprehending the sequence of events, the way they influenced each other, and the different possible paths/evolutions. The paper describes suitable models for the quantitative assessment of the consequences of the most probable accidental dynamics and its outcomes. The main finding is that after about 80 s from the beginning of the release the dense-gas cloud reached the surrounding houses that were destroyed successively by internal explosions. This fact has two main implications. First, it shows that the adopted modeling framework can give a correct picture of what happened in Viareggio. Second, it confirms the need to develop effective mitigation measures because, in case of this kind of accidents, there is no time to apply any protective emergency plans/actions. 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

World energy projection system: Model documentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1992-06-01

The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

Buses involved in fatal accidents factbook 2007

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-03-01

This document presents aggregate statistics on buses involved in traffic accidents in 2007. The : statistics are derived from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) file, compiled by the : University of Michigan Transportation Research Institut...

Trucks involved in fatal accidents factbook 2007.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-01-01

This document presents aggregate statistics on trucks involved in traffic accidents in 2007. The : statistics are derived from the Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents (TIFA) file, compiled by the : University of Michigan Transportation Research Instit...

Trucks involved in fatal accidents factbook 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

This document presents aggregate statistics on trucks involved in traffic accidents in 2008. The : statistics are derived from the Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents (TIFA) file, compiled by the : University of Michigan Transportation Research Instit...

NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document for Human Health and Performance Models and Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Walton, Marlei; Mulugeta, Lealem; Nelson, Emily S.; Myers, Jerry G.

2014-01-01

Rigorous verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) processes are imperative to ensure that models and simulations (MS) are sufficiently reliable to address issues within their intended scope. The NASA standard for MS, NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was a resultant outcome of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) to ensure MS are developed, applied, and interpreted appropriately for making decisions that may impact crew or mission safety. Because the 7009 focus is engineering systems, a NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document is being developed to augment the 7009 and provide information, tools, and techniques applicable to the probabilistic and deterministic biological MS more prevalent in human health and performance (HHP) and space biomedical research and operations.

Adverse fetal outcome in road accidents: Injury mechanism study and injury criteria development in a pregnant woman finite element model.

PubMed

Auriault, F; Thollon, L; Pérès, J; Behr, M

2016-12-01

This study documents the development of adverse fetal outcome predictors dedicated to the analysis of road accidents involving pregnant women. To do so, a pre-existing whole body finite element model representative of a 50th percentile 26 weeks pregnant woman was used. A total of 8 accident scenarios were simulated with the model positioned on a sled. Each of these scenarios was associated to a risk of adverse fetal outcome based on results from real car crash investigations involving pregnant women from the literature. The use of airbags and accidents involving unbelted occupants were not considered in this study. Several adverse fetal outcome potential predictors were then evaluated with regard to their correlation to this risk of fetal injuries. Three predictors appeared strongly correlated to the risk of adverse fetal outcome: (1) the intra uterine pressure at the placenta fetal side area (r=0.92), (2) the fetal head acceleration (HIC) (r=0.99) and (3) area of utero-placental interface over a strain threshold (r=0.90). Finally, sensitivity analysis against slight variations of the simulation parameters was performed and assess robustness of these criteria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

PubMed

Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

2011-11-01

Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

PubMed

Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

2013-06-01

The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

Estimation Of 137Cs Using Atmospheric Dispersion Models After A Nuclear Reactor Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simsek, V.; Kindap, T.; Unal, A.; Pozzoli, L.; Karaca, M.

2012-04-01

Nuclear energy will continue to have an important role in the production of electricity in the world as the need of energy grows up. But the safety of power plants will always be a question mark for people because of the accidents happened in the past. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident which happened in 26 April 1986 was the biggest nuclear accident ever. Because of explosion and fire large quantities of radioactive material was released to the atmosphere. The release of the radioactive particles because of accident affected not only its region but the entire Northern hemisphere. But much of the radioactive material was spread over west USSR and Europe. There are many studies about distribution of radioactive particles and the deposition of radionuclides all over Europe. But this was not true for Turkey especially for the deposition of radionuclides released after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and the radiation doses received by people. The aim of this study is to determine the radiation doses received by people living in Turkish territory after Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident and use this method in case of an emergency. For this purpose The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate meteorological conditions after the accident. The results of WRF which were for the 12 days after accident were used as input data for the HYSPLIT model. NOAA-ARL's (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Air Resources Laboratory) dispersion model HYSPLIT was used to simulate the 137Cs distrubition. The deposition values of 137Cs in our domain after Chernobyl Nuclear Reactor Accident were between 1.2E-37 Bq/m2 and 3.5E+08 Bq/m2. The results showed that Turkey was affected because of the accident especially the Black Sea Region. And the doses were calculated by using GENII-LIN which is multipurpose health physics code.

Let Documents Talk to Each Other: A Computer Model for Connection of Short Documents.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chen, Z.

1993-01-01

Discusses the integration of scientific texts through the connection of documents and describes a computer model that can connect short documents. Information retrieval and artificial intelligence are discussed; a prototype system of the model is explained; and the model is compared to other computer models. (17 references) (LRW)

A Bayesian hierarchical model for accident and injury surveillance.

PubMed

MacNab, Ying C

2003-01-01

This article presents a recent study which applies Bayesian hierarchical methodology to model and analyse accident and injury surveillance data. A hierarchical Poisson random effects spatio-temporal model is introduced and an analysis of inter-regional variations and regional trends in hospitalisations due to motor vehicle accident injuries to boys aged 0-24 in the province of British Columbia, Canada, is presented. The objective of this article is to illustrate how the modelling technique can be implemented as part of an accident and injury surveillance and prevention system where transportation and/or health authorities may routinely examine accidents, injuries, and hospitalisations to target high-risk regions for prevention programs, to evaluate prevention strategies, and to assist in health planning and resource allocation. The innovation of the methodology is its ability to uncover and highlight important underlying structure of the data. Between 1987 and 1996, British Columbia hospital separation registry registered 10,599 motor vehicle traffic injury related hospitalisations among boys aged 0-24 who resided in British Columbia, of which majority (89%) of the injuries occurred to boys aged 15-24. The injuries were aggregated by three age groups (0-4, 5-14, and 15-24), 20 health regions (based of place-of-residence), and 10 calendar years (1987 to 1996) and the corresponding mid-year population estimates were used as 'at risk' population. An empirical Bayes inference technique using penalised quasi-likelihood estimation was implemented to model both rates and counts, with spline smoothing accommodating non-linear temporal effects. The results show that (a) crude rates and ratios at health region level are unstable, (b) the models with spline smoothing enable us to explore possible shapes of injury trends at both the provincial level and the regional level, and (c) the fitted models provide a wealth of information about the patterns (both over space and time

Development and Validation of Accident Models for FeCrAl Cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence; Hales, Jason Dean

2016-08-01

The purpose of this milestone report is to present the work completed in regards to material model development for FeCrAl cladding and highlight the results of applying these models to Loss of Coolant Accidents (LOCA) and Station Blackouts (SBO). With the limited experimental data available (essentially only the data used to create the models) true validation is not possible. In the absence of another alternative, qualitative comparisons during postulated accident scenarios between FeCrAl and Zircaloy-4 cladded rods have been completed demonstrating the superior performance of FeCrAl.

Assessing accident phobia in mild traumatic brain injury: The Accident Fear Questionnaire.

PubMed

Sutherland, Jessica; Middleton, Jason; Ornstein, Tisha J; Lawson, Kerry; Vickers, Kristin

2016-08-01

Despite a documented prevalence of accident phobia in almost 40% of motor vehicle accident (MVA) survivors, the onset of accident phobia after traumatic brain injury (TBI) remains poorly understood. There is currently a body of knowledge about posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) in patients with TBI, but less is known about accident phobia following TBI, particularly in cases of mild TBI (mTBI). Accident phobia can impede safe return to driving or motor vehicle travel, inhibiting return to daily functioning. In addition, pain complaints have been found to correlate positively with postinjury anxiety disorders. The present study sought to determine the reliability and validity of the Accident Fear Questionnaire (AFQ), a measure used to assess accident phobia, in 72 patients with mTBI using secondary data analysis and the subsequent development of accident phobia postinjury. Furthermore, we sought to examine the impact of pain, anxiety, and depression complaints on the AFQ. Results reveal convergent validity and reliability in mTBI populations. Additionally, pain, anxiety, and depression measures were significantly correlated with scores on the AFQ. Psychometrically, the phobia avoidance subscale of the AFQ is a reliable measure for use with mTBI populations, although some limitations were found. In particular, the accident profile (AP) subscale was not found to be reliable or valid and could be eliminated from the AFQ. Collectively, the present study contributes to the small body of published literature evaluating accident phobia in patients with mTBI and the impact of pain on the development of postinjury anxiety disorders. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

PubMed

Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

2016-05-01

Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

2003-01-01

Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

An approach to accidents modeling based on compounds road environments.

PubMed

Fernandes, Ana; Neves, Jose

2013-04-01

The most common approach to study the influence of certain road features on accidents has been the consideration of uniform road segments characterized by a unique feature. However, when an accident is related to the road infrastructure, its cause is usually not a single characteristic but rather a complex combination of several characteristics. The main objective of this paper is to describe a methodology developed in order to consider the road as a complete environment by using compound road environments, overcoming the limitations inherented in considering only uniform road segments. The methodology consists of: dividing a sample of roads into segments; grouping them into quite homogeneous road environments using cluster analysis; and identifying the influence of skid resistance and texture depth on road accidents in each environment by using generalized linear models. The application of this methodology is demonstrated for eight roads. Based on real data from accidents and road characteristics, three compound road environments were established where the pavement surface properties significantly influence the occurrence of accidents. Results have showed clearly that road environments where braking maneuvers are more common or those with small radii of curvature and high speeds require higher skid resistance and texture depth as an important contribution to the accident prevention. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A novel grey-fuzzy-Markov and pattern recognition model for industrial accident forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Edem, Inyeneobong Ekoi; Oke, Sunday Ayoola; Adebiyi, Kazeem Adekunle

2017-10-01

Industrial forecasting is a top-echelon research domain, which has over the past several years experienced highly provocative research discussions. The scope of this research domain continues to expand due to the continuous knowledge ignition motivated by scholars in the area. So, more intelligent and intellectual contributions on current research issues in the accident domain will potentially spark more lively academic, value-added discussions that will be of practical significance to members of the safety community. In this communication, a new grey-fuzzy-Markov time series model, developed from nondifferential grey interval analytical framework has been presented for the first time. This instrument forecasts future accident occurrences under time-invariance assumption. The actual contribution made in the article is to recognise accident occurrence patterns and decompose them into grey state principal pattern components. The architectural framework of the developed grey-fuzzy-Markov pattern recognition (GFMAPR) model has four stages: fuzzification, smoothening, defuzzification and whitenisation. The results of application of the developed novel model signify that forecasting could be effectively carried out under uncertain conditions and hence, positions the model as a distinctly superior tool for accident forecasting investigations. The novelty of the work lies in the capability of the model in making highly accurate predictions and forecasts based on the availability of small or incomplete accident data.

Workplace accidents and self-organized criticality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mauro, John C.; Diehl, Brett; Marcellin, Richard F.; Vaughn, Daniel J.

2018-09-01

The occurrence of workplace accidents is described within the context of self-organized criticality, a theory from statistical physics that governs a wide range of phenomena across physics, biology, geosciences, economics, and the social sciences. Workplace accident data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reveal a power-law relationship between the number of accidents and their severity as measured by the number of days lost from work. This power-law scaling is indicative of workplace accidents being governed by self-organized criticality, suggesting that nearly all workplace accidents have a common underlying cause, independent of their severity. Such power-law scaling is found for all labor categories documented by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our results provide scientific support for the Heinrich accident triangle, with the practical implication that suppressing the rate of severe accidents requires changing the attitude toward workplace safety in general. By creating a culture that values safety, empowers individuals, and strives to continuously improve, accident rates can be suppressed across the full range of severities.

EIA model documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1994-12-30

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of products, the production of natural gas liquids and domestic methanol, projects petroleum provides and sources of supplies for meeting demand. In addition, the PMMmore » estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption.« less

The social accident: a theoretical model and a research agenda for studying the influence of social and cultural characteristics on motor vehicle accidents.

PubMed

Factor, Roni; Mahalel, David; Yair, Gad

2007-09-01

The paper develops a sociological model to explain collisions between two drivers or more. The "Social Accident" model presented here integrates empirical findings from prior studies and extant sociological theories. Sociological theory posits that social groups have unique cultural characteristics, which include a distinctive world view and ways of operating that influence its members. These cultural characteristics may cause drivers in different groups to interpret a given situation differently; therefore, they will make conflicting decisions that may possibly lead to road accidents. The proposed model may contribute to an understanding of the social mechanism related to interactions and communication among drivers by presenting new directions for understanding accidents and collisions. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research that will employ the model to assess its predictive and practical utility.

Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Porter, Ian Edward

A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

International Natural Gas Model 2011, Model Documentation Report

EIA Publications

2013-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the International Natural Gas Model (INGM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domesticmore » product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.« less

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-06-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Investigation of Zircaloy-2 oxidation model for SFP accident analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nemoto, Yoshiyuki; Kaji, Yoshiyuki; Ogawa, Chihiro; Kondo, Keietsu; Nakashima, Kazuo; Kanazawa, Toru; Tojo, Masayuki

2017-05-01

The authors previously conducted thermogravimetric analyses on Zircaloy-2 in air. By using the thermogravimetric data, an oxidation model was constructed in this study so that it can be applied for the modeling of cladding degradation in spent fuel pool (SFP) severe accident condition. For its validation, oxidation tests of long cladding tube were conducted, and computational fluid dynamics analyses using the constructed oxidation model were proceeded to simulate the experiments. In the oxidation tests, high temperature thermal gradient along the cladding axis was applied and air flow rates in testing chamber were controlled to simulate hypothetical SFP accidents. The analytical outputs successfully reproduced the growth of oxide film and porous oxide layer on the claddings in oxidation tests, and validity of the oxidation model was proved. Influence of air flow rate for the oxidation behavior was thought negligible in the conditions investigated in this study.

Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

2011-11-01

Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

Model documentation: Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

1994-04-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it related to the production of the 1994 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO94) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. This documentation report serves two purposes. First, it is a reference document for model analysts, model users, and the public interested in the construction and application of the RFM. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources -- wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. Of these six, four are documented in the following chapters: municipal solid waste, wind, solar and biofuels. Geothermal and wood are not currently working components of NEMS. The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological and cost characteristics of renewable energy technologies, and to pass these characteristics to other NEMS modules for the determination of mid-term forecasted renewable energy demand.

RELEASE OF DRIED RADIOACTIVE WASTE MATERIALS TECHNICAL BASIS DOCUMENT

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

KOZLOWSKI, S.D.

2007-05-30

This technical basis document was developed to support RPP-23429, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (PDSA) and RPP-23479, Preliminary Documented Safety Analysis for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Facility. The main document describes the risk binning process and the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative accidents involving the release of dried radioactive waste materials from the Demonstration Bulk Vitrification System (DBVS) and to the associated represented hazardous conditions. Appendices D through F provide the technical basis for assigning risk bins to the representative dried waste release accident and associated represented hazardous conditionsmore » for the Contact-Handled Transuranic Mixed (CH-TRUM) Waste Packaging Unit (WPU). The risk binning process uses an evaluation of the frequency and consequence of a given representative accident or represented hazardous condition to determine the need for safety structures, systems, and components (SSC) and technical safety requirement (TSR)-level controls. A representative accident or a represented hazardous condition is assigned to a risk bin based on the potential radiological and toxicological consequences to the public and the collocated worker. Note that the risk binning process is not applied to facility workers because credible hazardous conditions with the potential for significant facility worker consequences are considered for safety-significant SSCs and/or TSR-level controls regardless of their estimated frequency. The controls for protection of the facility workers are described in RPP-23429 and RPP-23479. Determination of the need for safety-class SSCs was performed in accordance with DOE-STD-3009-94, Preparation Guide for US. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses, as described below.« less

Semantic Document Model to Enhance Data and Knowledge Interoperability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nešić, Saša

To enable document data and knowledge to be efficiently shared and reused across application, enterprise, and community boundaries, desktop documents should be completely open and queryable resources, whose data and knowledge are represented in a form understandable to both humans and machines. At the same time, these are the requirements that desktop documents need to satisfy in order to contribute to the visions of the Semantic Web. With the aim of achieving this goal, we have developed the Semantic Document Model (SDM), which turns desktop documents into Semantic Documents as uniquely identified and semantically annotated composite resources, that can be instantiated into human-readable (HR) and machine-processable (MP) forms. In this paper, we present the SDM along with an RDF and ontology-based solution for the MP document instance. Moreover, on top of the proposed model, we have built the Semantic Document Management System (SDMS), which provides a set of services that exploit the model. As an application example that takes advantage of SDMS services, we have extended MS Office with a set of tools that enables users to transform MS Office documents (e.g., MS Word and MS PowerPoint) into Semantic Documents, and to search local and distant semantic document repositories for document content units (CUs) over Semantic Web protocols.

[Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

PubMed

de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

2014-12-01

The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cuadra A.; Bari R.; Cheng, L-Y

2012-11-11

On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the auxiliary buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unitmore » 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.« less

DRI Model of the U.S. Economy -- Model Documentation

EIA Publications

1993-01-01

Provides documentation on Data Resources, Inc., DRI Model of the U.S. Economy and the DRI Personal Computer Input/Output Model. It also describes the theoretical basis, structure and functions of both DRI models; and contains brief descriptions of the models and their equations.

Assessment and prediction of road accident injuries trend using time-series models in Kurdistan.

PubMed

Parvareh, Maryam; Karimi, Asrin; Rezaei, Satar; Woldemichael, Abraha; Nili, Sairan; Nouri, Bijan; Nasab, Nader Esmail

2018-01-01

Road traffic accidents are commonly encountered incidents that can cause high-intensity injuries to the victims and have direct impacts on the members of the society. Iran has one of the highest incident rates of road traffic accidents. The objective of this study was to model the patterns of road traffic accidents leading to injury in Kurdistan province, Iran. A time-series analysis was conducted to characterize and predict the frequency of road traffic accidents that lead to injury in Kurdistan province. The injuries were categorized into three separate groups which were related to the car occupants, motorcyclists and pedestrian road traffic accident injuries. The Box-Jenkins time-series analysis was used to model the injury observations applying autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) from March 2009 to February 2015 and to predict the accidents up to 24 months later (February 2017). The analysis was carried out using R-3.4.2 statistical software package. A total of 5199 pedestrians, 9015 motorcyclists, and 28,906 car occupants' accidents were observed. The mean (SD) number of car occupant, motorcyclist and pedestrian accident injuries observed were 401.01 (SD 32.78), 123.70 (SD 30.18) and 71.19 (SD 17.92) per year, respectively. The best models for the pattern of car occupant, motorcyclist, and pedestrian injuries were the ARIMA (1, 0, 0), SARIMA (1, 0, 2) (1, 0, 0) 12 , and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (0, 0, 1) 12 , respectively. The motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries showed a seasonal pattern and the peak was during summer (August). The minimum frequency for the motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries were observed during the late autumn and early winter (December and January). Our findings revealed that the observed motorcyclist and pedestrian injuries had a seasonal pattern that was explained by air temperature changes overtime. These findings call the need for close monitoring of the

NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patlach, Robert

2010-01-01

Manned space flight is risky business. Accidents have occurred and may occur in the future. NASA's manned space flight programs, with all their successes, have had three fatal accidents, one at the launch pad and two in flight. The Apollo fire and the Challenger and Columbia accidents resulted in a loss of seventeen crewmembers. Russia's manned space flight programs have had three fatal accidents, one ground-based and two in flight. These accidents resulted in the loss of five crewmembers. Additionally, manned spacecraft have encountered numerous close calls with potential for disaster. The NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Safety Office has documented more than 70 spacecraft incidents, many of which could have become serious accidents. At the Johnson Space Center (JSC), medical contingency personnel are assigned to a Mishap Investigation Team. The team deploys to the accident site to gather and preserve evidence for the Accident Investigation Board. The JSC Medical Operations Branch has developed a flight surgeon accident response training class to capture the lessons learned from the Columbia accident. This presentation will address the NASA Mishap Investigation Team's medical objectives, planned response, and potential issues that could arise subsequent to a manned spacecraft accident. Educational Objectives are to understand the medical objectives and issues confronting the Mishap Investigation Team medical personnel subsequent to a human space flight accident.

A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

PubMed

Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

2016-06-01

The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

Documenting Climate Models and Their Simulations

DOE PAGES

Guilyardi, Eric; Balaji, V.; Lawrence, Bryan; ...

2013-05-01

The results of climate models are of increasing and widespread importance. No longer is climate model output of sole interest to climate scientists and researchers in the climate change impacts and adaptation fields. Now nonspecialists such as government officials, policy makers, and the general public all have an increasing need to access climate model output and understand its implications. For this host of users, accurate and complete metadata (i.e., information about how and why the data were produced) is required to document the climate modeling results. We describe a pilot community initiative to collect and make available documentation of climatemore » models and their simulations. In an initial application, a metadata repository is being established to provide information of this kind for a major internationally coordinated modeling activity known as CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5). We expected that for a wide range of stakeholders, this and similar community-managed metadata repositories will spur development of analysis tools that facilitate discovery and exploitation of Earth system simulations.« less

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

Intelligent Modeling for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Management

DOE PAGES

Darling, Michael Christropher; Luger, George F.; Jones, Thomas B.; ...

2018-03-29

This study explores the viability of using counterfactual reasoning for impact analyses when understanding and responding to “beyond-design-basis” nuclear power plant accidents. Currently, when a severe nuclear power plant accident occurs, plant operators rely on Severe Accident Management Guidelines. However, the current guidelines are limited in scope and depth: for certain types of accidents, plant operators would have to work to mitigate the damage with limited experience and guidance for the particular situation. We aim to fill the need for comprehensive accident support by using a dynamic Bayesian network to aid in the diagnosis of a nuclear reactor’s state andmore » to analyze the impact of possible response measures.« less

EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1995-12-28

The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supplymore » for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.« less

Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

PubMed Central

Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

PubMed

Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

PubMed

Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

2014-07-01

The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Multi-phase model development to assess RCIC system capabilities under severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kirkland, Karen Vierow; Ross, Kyle; Beeny, Bradley

The Reactor Core Isolation Cooling (RCIC) System is a safety-related system that provides makeup water for core cooling of some Boiling Water Reactors (BWRs) with a Mark I containment. The RCIC System consists of a steam-driven Terry turbine that powers a centrifugal, multi-stage pump for providing water to the reactor pressure vessel. The Fukushima Dai-ichi accidents demonstrated that the RCIC System can play an important role under accident conditions in removing core decay heat. The unexpectedly sustained, good performance of the RCIC System in the Fukushima reactor demonstrates, firstly, that its capabilities are not well understood, and secondly, that themore » system has high potential for extended core cooling in accident scenarios. Better understanding and analysis tools would allow for more options to cope with a severe accident situation and to reduce the consequences. The objectives of this project were to develop physics-based models of the RCIC System, incorporate them into a multi-phase code and validate the models. This Final Technical Report details the progress throughout the project duration and the accomplishments.« less

Laboratory accidents--a matter of attitude.

PubMed

Karim, N; Choe, C K

2000-12-01

This is a prospective study on accidents occurring in the Pathology laboratories of Hospital Ipoh over the 3-year period from January 1996 to October 1999. 15 mishaps were recorded. The location of the accidents were the histology (40%), microbiology (33%), haematology (20%) and cytology (7%) laboratories. No mishaps were reported from the clinical chemistry, blood bank and outpatient laboratories. Cuts by sharp objects were the most common injuries sustained (47%) followed by splashes and squirts by fluid such as blood or chemicals (27%). There was 1 case each of contact with biohazardous fluid, burn, allergy and accidental drinking of disinfectant. 67% of the accidents involved medical laboratory technicians, 20% involved attendants and the rest were medical officers and the junior laboratory technicians. Although the accidents reported appeared trivial, it is vital to document them and bring them to the attention of all concerned in the laboratory, in order to prevent major accidents and also because of medico-legal implications. The role of the Laboratory Safety Committee cannot be overemphasised. Modification of staff attitude is considered an important remedial goal.

NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Patlach, Robert

2011-01-01

This slide presentation reviews NASA's role in the response to spacecraft accidents that involve human fatalities or injuries. Particular attention is given to the work of the Mishap Investigation Team (MIT), the first response to the accidents and the interface to the accident investigation board. The MIT does not investigate the accident, but the objective of the MIT is to gather, guard, preserve and document the evidence. The primary medical objectives of the MIT is to receive, analyze, identify, and transport human remains, provide assistance in the recovery effort, and to provide family Casualty Coordinators with latest recovery information. The MIT while it does not determine the cause of the accident, it acts as the fact gathering arm of the Mishap Investigation Board (MIB), which when it is activated may chose to continue to use the MIT as its field investigation resource. The MIT membership and the specific responsibilities and tasks of the flight surgeon is reviewed. The current law establishing the process is also reviewed.

Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

2012-01-01

The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

Modelling road accident blackspots data with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution.

PubMed

Prieto, Faustino; Gómez-Déniz, Emilio; Sarabia, José María

2014-10-01

This study shows how road traffic networks events, in particular road accidents on blackspots, can be modelled with simple probabilistic distributions. We considered the number of crashes and the number of fatalities on Spanish blackspots in the period 2003-2007, from Spanish General Directorate of Traffic (DGT). We modelled those datasets, respectively, with the discrete generalized Pareto distribution (a discrete parametric model with three parameters) and with the discrete Lomax distribution (a discrete parametric model with two parameters, and particular case of the previous model). For that, we analyzed the basic properties of both parametric models: cumulative distribution, survival, probability mass, quantile and hazard functions, genesis and rth-order moments; applied two estimation methods of their parameters: the μ and (μ+1) frequency method and the maximum likelihood method; used two goodness-of-fit tests: Chi-square test and discrete Kolmogorov-Smirnov test based on bootstrap resampling; and compared them with the classical negative binomial distribution in terms of absolute probabilities and in models including covariates. We found that those probabilistic models can be useful to describe the road accident blackspots datasets analyzed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

BISON Modeling of Reactivity-Initiated Accident Experiments in a Static Environment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Folsom, Charles P.; Jensen, Colby B.; Williamson, Richard L.

2016-09-01

In conjunction with the restart of the TREAT reactor and the design of test vehicles, modeling and simulation efforts are being used to model the response of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) concepts under reactivity insertion accident (RIA) conditions. The purpose of this work is to model a baseline case of a 10 cm long UO2-Zircaloy fuel rodlet using BISON and RELAP5 over a range of energy depositions and with varying reactor power pulse widths. The results show the effect of varying the pulse width and energy deposition on both thermal and mechanical parameters that are important for predicting failure ofmore » the fuel rodlet. The combined BISON/RELAP5 model captures coupled thermal and mechanical effects on the fuel-to-cladding gap conductance, cladding-to-coolant heat transfer coefficient and water temperature and pressure that would not be capable in each code individually. These combined effects allow for a more accurate modeling of the thermal and mechanical response in the fuel rodlet and thermal-hydraulics of the test vehicle.« less

A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

2017-01-01

A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

A nursing-specific model of EPR documentation: organizational and professional requirements.

PubMed

von Krogh, Gunn; Nåden, Dagfinn

2008-01-01

To present the Norwegian documentation KPO model (quality assurance, problem solving, and caring). To present the requirements and multiple electronic patient record (EPR) functions the model is designed to address. The model's professional substance, a conceptual framework for nursing practice is developed by examining, reorganizing, and completing existing frameworks. The model's methodology, an information management system, is developed using an expert group. Both model elements were clinically tested over a period of 1 year. The model is designed for nursing documentation in step with statutory, organizational, and professional requirements. Complete documentation is arranged for by incorporating the Nursing Minimum Data Set. A systematic and comprehensive documentation is arranged for by establishing categories as provided in the model's framework domains. Consistent documentation is arranged for by incorporating NANDA-I Nursing Diagnoses, Nursing Intervention Classification, and Nursing Outcome Classification. The model can be used as a tool in cooperation with vendors to ensure the interests of the nursing profession is met when developing EPR solutions in healthcare. The model can provide clinicians with a framework for documentation in step with legal and organizational requirements and at the same time retain the ability to record all aspects of clinical nursing.

Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident: Atmospheric and oceanic impacts over the five years.

PubMed

Hirose, Katsumi

2016-06-01

The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant (FDNPP) accident resulted in huge environmental and socioeconomic impacts to Japan. To document the actual environmental and socioeconomic effects of the FDNPP accident, we describe here atmospheric and marine contamination due to radionuclides released from the FDNPP accident using papers published during past five years, in which temporal and spatial variations of FDNPP-derived radionuclides in air, deposition and seawater and their mapping are recorded by local, regional and global monitoring activities. High radioactivity-contaminated area in land were formed by the dispersion of the radioactive cloud and precipitation, depending on land topography and local meteorological conditions, whereas extremely high concentrations of (131)I and radiocesium in seawater occurred due to direct release of radioactivity-contaminated stagnant water in addition to atmospheric deposition. For both of atmosphere and ocean, numerical model simulations, including local, regional and global-scale modeling, were extensively employed to evaluate source terms of the FDNPP-derived radionuclides from the monitoring data. These models also provided predictions of the dispersion and high deposition areas of the FDNPP-derived radionuclides. However, there are significant differences between the observed and simulated values. Then, the monitoring data would give a good opportunity to improve numerical modeling. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors associated with automobile accidents and survival.

PubMed

Kim, Hong Sok; Kim, Hyung Jin; Son, Bongsoo

2006-09-01

This paper develops an econometric model for vehicles' inherent mortality rate and estimates the probability of accidents and survival in the United States. Logistic regression model is used to estimate probability of survival, and censored regression model is used to estimate probability of accidents. The estimation results indicated that the probability of accident and survival are influenced by the physical characteristics of the vehicles involved in the accident, and by the characteristics of the driver and the occupants. Using restrain system and riding in heavy vehicle increased the survival rate. Middle-aged drivers are less susceptible to involve in an accident, and surprisingly, female drivers are more likely to have an accident than male drivers. Riding in powerful vehicles (high horsepower) and driving late night increase the probability of accident. Overall, the driving behavior and characteristics of vehicle does matter and affects the probabilities of having a fatal accident for different types of vehicles.

Injury protection and accident causation parameters for vulnerable road users based on German In-Depth Accident Study GIDAS.

PubMed

Otte, Dietmar; Jänsch, Michael; Haasper, Carl

2012-01-01

Within a study of accident data from GIDAS (German In-Depth Accident Study), vulnerable road users are investigated regarding injury risk in traffic accidents. GIDAS is the largest in-depth accident study in Germany. Due to a well-defined sampling plan, representativeness with respect to the federal statistics is also guaranteed. A hierarchical system ACASS (Accident Causation Analysis with Seven Steps) was developed in GIDAS, describing the human causation factors in a chronological sequence. The accordingly classified causation factors - derived from the systematic of the analysis of human accident causes ("7 steps") - can be used to describe the influence of accident causes on the injury outcome. The bases of the study are accident documentations over ten years from 1999 to 2008 with 8204 vulnerable road users (VRU), of which 3 different groups were selected as pedestrians n=2041, motorcyclists n=2199 and bicyclists n=3964, and analyzed on collisions with cars and trucks as well as vulnerable road users alone. The paper will give a description of the injury pattern and injury mechanisms of accidents. The injury frequencies and severities are pointed out considering different types of VRU and protective measures of helmet and clothes of the human body. The impact points are demonstrated on the car, following to conclusion of protective measures on the vehicle. Existing standards of protection devices as well as interdisciplinary research, including accident and injury statistics, are described. With this paper, a summarization of the existing possibilities on protective measures for pedestrians, bicyclists and motorcyclists is given and discussed by comparison of all three groups of vulnerable road users. Also the relevance of special impact situations and accident causes mainly responsible for severe injuries are pointed out, given the new orientation of research for the avoidance and reduction of accident patterns. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

2016-12-01

Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

Unions, Health and Safety Committees, and Workplace Accidents in the Korean Manufacturing Sector.

PubMed

Kim, Woo-Yung; Cho, Hm-Hak

2016-06-01

Despite the declining trend of workplace accidents in Republic of Korea, its level is still quite high compared with that in other developed countries. Factors that are responsible for high workplace accidents have not been well documented in Republic of Korea. The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of unions and health and safety committees on workplace accidents in Korean manufacturing firms. We also allow for the interactions between unions and health and safety committees in the analysis. The results obtained in this paper will not only contribute to the literature in this field, but might also be useful for employers and worker representatives who are trying to find an effective way to reduce workplace accidents. This paper utilizes the 2012 Occupational Safety and Health Trend Survey data, which is a unique data set providing information on workplace injuries and illness as well as other characteristics of participatory firms, representative of the manufacturing industry in Republic of Korea. In estimating the effects of unions and health and safety committees, we build a negative binomial regression model in which the interactions between unions and health and safety committees are permissible in reducing workplace accidents. Health and safety committees were found to reduce the incidence of accidents whereas unionized establishments have higher incidence of accidents than nonunionized establishments. We also found that health and safety committees can more effectively reduce accidents in nonunionized establishments. By contrast, nonexclusive joint committees can more effectively reduce accidents in unionized establishments.

Work-Related Accidents and Sharp Injuries in Paramedics-Illustrated with an Example of a Multi-Specialist Hospital, Located in Central Poland.

PubMed

Garus-Pakowska, Anna; Szatko, Franciszek; Ulrichs, Magdalena

2017-08-10

(1) Background: An analysis of work-related accidents in paramedics in Poland by presenting the model and trend of accidents, accident rates and by identifying causes and results of accidents; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical documentation regarding work-related accidents in a multi-specialist hospital, located in central Poland, in the period 2005-2015. The study group included paramedics who had an accident while being on duty; (3) Results: According to hospital records, 88 paramedics were involved in 390 accidents and 265 injuries caused by sharp instruments. The annual accident rate was 5.34/100 employed paramedics. Most of the accidents occurred at night. The most common reason for the accident was careless behaviour of the paramedic, which resulted in joint sprains and dislocations. Injuries accounted for a huge portion of the total number of events. As many as 45% of injuries were not officially recorded; (4) Conclusion: High rates of work-related accidents and injuries caused by sharp instruments in paramedics are a serious public health problem. Further studies should be conducted in order to identify risk factors of accidents, particularly injuries, and to implement preventative programmes, aiming to minimise rates of occupational hazards for paramedics.

Trucks involved in fatal accidents codebook 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-01-01

This report provides documentation for UMTRIs file of Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents : (TIFA), 2008, including distributions of the code values for each variable in the file. The 2008 : TIFA file is a census of all medium and heavy trucks invo...

M5 model tree based predictive modeling of road accidents on non-urban sections of highways in India.

PubMed

Singh, Gyanendra; Sachdeva, S N; Pal, Mahesh

2016-11-01

This work examines the application of M5 model tree and conventionally used fixed/random effect negative binomial (FENB/RENB) regression models for accident prediction on non-urban sections of highway in Haryana (India). Road accident data for a period of 2-6 years on different sections of 8 National and State Highways in Haryana was collected from police records. Data related to road geometry, traffic and road environment related variables was collected through field studies. Total two hundred and twenty two data points were gathered by dividing highways into sections with certain uniform geometric characteristics. For prediction of accident frequencies using fifteen input parameters, two modeling approaches: FENB/RENB regression and M5 model tree were used. Results suggest that both models perform comparably well in terms of correlation coefficient and root mean square error values. M5 model tree provides simple linear equations that are easy to interpret and provide better insight, indicating that this approach can effectively be used as an alternative to RENB approach if the sole purpose is to predict motor vehicle crashes. Sensitivity analysis using M5 model tree also suggests that its results reflect the physical conditions. Both models clearly indicate that to improve safety on Indian highways minor accesses to the highways need to be properly designed and controlled, the service roads to be made functional and dispersion of speeds is to be brought down. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Glider accidents: an analysis of 143 cases, 2001-2005.

PubMed

van Doorn, Robert R A; de Voogt, Alexander J

2007-01-01

The majority of aviation crashes and casualties take place in general and sport aviation. Although gliding has gained popularity in recent decades, we could find no systematic analysis of glider accidents. This study determined factors associated with both non-fatal and fatal glider accidents to document their position within sport and general aviation accidents, and to suggest preventive measures and improvements. We performed a retrospective review of glider accidents for the period 2001-2005 in the database maintained by the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). A total of 117 non-fatal and 26 fatal glider accidents were reported for the 5-yr period. Adverse weather was the cause in 20% of all non-fatal accidents, 60% of which occurred in the cruise phase. Logistic regression revealed that fatal accidents were predicted by pilot error, flight phase, and home-built aircraft. Factors contributing to glider crashes are specific to this type of sport aviation. Owners of home-built gliders should pay particular attention to the aircraft's specifications and design limits.

Restoring warped document images through 3D shape modeling.

PubMed

Tan, Chew Lim; Zhang, Li; Zhang, Zheng; Xia, Tao

2006-02-01

Scanning a document page from a thick bound volume often results in two kinds of distortions in the scanned image, i.e., shade along the "spine" of the book and warping in the shade area. In this paper, we propose an efficient restoration method based on the discovery of the 3D shape of a book surface from the shading information in a scanned document image. From a technical point of view, this shape from shading (SFS) problem in real-world environments is characterized by 1) a proximal and moving light source, 2) Lambertian reflection, 3) nonuniform albedo distribution, and 4) document skew. Taking all these factors into account, we first build practical models (consisting of a 3D geometric model and a 3D optical model) for the practical scanning conditions to reconstruct the 3D shape of the book surface. We next restore the scanned document image using this shape based on deshading and dewarping models. Finally, we evaluate the restoration results by comparing our estimated surface shape with the real shape as well as the OCR performance on original and restored document images. The results show that the geometric and photometric distortions are mostly removed and the OCR results are improved markedly.

An Evaluation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Software’s Ability to Model the Chornobyl Accident

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

source term. Several publications provided a thorough accounting of the accident, including “ Chernobyl Record” [Mould], and the NRC technical report...Report on the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station” [NUREG-1250]. The most comprehensive study of transport models to predict the...from the Chernobyl Accident: The ATMES Report” [Klug, et al.]. The Atmospheric Transport 5 Model Evaluation Study (ATMES) report used data

Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williamson, G. G.; Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.

1977-01-01

The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

Analyses of non-fatal accidents in an opencast mine by logistic regression model - a case study.

PubMed

Onder, Seyhan; Mutlu, Mert

2017-09-01

Accidents cause major damage for both workers and enterprises in the mining industry. To reduce the number of occupational accidents, these incidents should be properly registered and carefully analysed. This study efficiently examines the Aegean Lignite Enterprise (ELI) of Turkish Coal Enterprises (TKI) in Soma between 2006 and 2011, and opencast coal mine occupational accident records were used for statistical analyses. A total of 231 occupational accidents were analysed for this study. The accident records were categorized into seven groups: area, reason, occupation, part of body, age, shift hour and lost days. The SPSS package program was used in this study for logistic regression analyses, which predicted the probability of accidents resulting in greater or less than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries. Social facilities-area of surface installations, workshops and opencast mining areas are the areas with the highest probability for accidents with greater than 3 lost workdays for non-fatal injuries, while the reasons with the highest probability for these types of accidents are transporting and manual handling. Additionally, the model was tested for such reported accidents that occurred in 2012 for the ELI in Soma and estimated the probability of exposure to accidents with lost workdays correctly by 70%.

Severe Accident Scoping Simulations of Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts for BWRs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Robb, Kevin R.

2015-08-01

Accident-tolerant fuels (ATFs) are fuels and/or cladding that, in comparison with the standard uranium dioxide Zircaloy system, can tolerate loss of active cooling in the core for a considerably longer time period while maintaining or improving the fuel performance during normal operations [1]. It is important to note that the currently used uranium dioxide Zircaloy fuel system tolerates design basis accidents (and anticipated operational occurrences and normal operation) as prescribed by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Previously, preliminary simulations of the plant response have been performed under a range of accident scenarios using various ATF cladding concepts and fully ceramicmore » microencapsulated fuel. Design basis loss of coolant accidents (LOCAs) and station blackout (SBO) severe accidents were analyzed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) for boiling water reactors (BWRs) [2]. Researchers have investigated the effects of thermal conductivity on design basis accidents [3], investigated silicon carbide (SiC) cladding [4], as well as the effects of ATF concepts on the late stage accident progression [5]. These preliminary analyses were performed to provide initial insight into the possible improvements that ATF concepts could provide and to identify issues with respect to modeling ATF concepts. More recently, preliminary analyses for a range of ATF concepts have been evaluated internationally for LOCA and severe accident scenarios for the Chinese CPR1000 [6] and the South Korean OPR-1000 [7] pressurized water reactors (PWRs). In addition to these scoping studies, a common methodology and set of performance metrics were developed to compare and support prioritizing ATF concepts [8]. A proposed ATF concept is based on iron-chromium-aluminum alloys (FeCrAl) [9]. With respect to enhancing accident tolerance, FeCrAl alloys have substantially slower oxidation kinetics compared to the zirconium alloys typically employed. During a severe accident, Fe

Buses involved in fatal accidents codebook 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-03-01

This report provides documentation for UMTRIs file of Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA), 2008, : including distributions of the code values for each variable in the file. The 2008 BIFA file is a census of all : buses involved in a fatal acc...

Buses involved in fatal accidents codebook 2007.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-12-01

This report provides documentation for UMTRIs file of Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA), 2007, : including distributions of the code values for each variable in the file. The 2007 BIFA file is a census of all : buses involved in a fatal acc...

Understanding transit accidents using the National Transit Database and the role of Transit Intelligent Vehicle Initiative Technology in reducing accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2004-06-01

This report documents the results of bus accident data analysis using the 2002 National Transit Database (NTD) and discusses the potential of using advanced technology being studied and developed under the U.S. Department of Transportations (U.S. ...

Professional experience and traffic accidents/near-miss accidents among truck drivers.

PubMed

Girotto, Edmarlon; Andrade, Selma Maffei de; González, Alberto Durán; Mesas, Arthur Eumann

2016-10-01

To investigate the relationship between the time working as a truck driver and the report of involvement in traffic accidents or near-miss accidents. A cross-sectional study was performed with truck drivers transporting products from the Brazilian grain harvest to the Port of Paranaguá, Paraná, Brazil. The drivers were interviewed regarding sociodemographic characteristics, working conditions, behavior in traffic and involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents in the previous 12 months. Subsequently, the participants answered a self-applied questionnaire on substance use. The time of professional experience as drivers was categorized in tertiles. Statistical analyses were performed through the construction of models adjusted by multinomial regression to assess the relationship between the length of experience as a truck driver and the involvement in accidents or near-miss accidents. This study included 665 male drivers with an average age of 42.2 (±11.1) years. Among them, 7.2% and 41.7% of the drivers reported involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, respectively. In fully adjusted analysis, the 3rd tertile of professional experience (>22years) was shown to be inversely associated with involvement in accidents (odds ratio [OR] 0.29; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.16-0.52) and near-miss accidents (OR 0.17; 95% CI 0.05-0.53). The 2nd tertile of professional experience (11-22 years) was inversely associated with involvement in accidents (OR 0.63; 95% CI 0.40-0.98). An evident relationship was observed between longer professional experience and a reduction in reporting involvement in accidents and near-miss accidents, regardless of age, substance use, working conditions and behavior in traffic. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Offsite Radiological Consequence Analysis for the Bounding Flammable Gas Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-07-30

This document quantifies the offsite radiological consequences of the bounding flammable gas accident for comparison with the 25 rem Evaluation Guideline established in DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank The calculation applies reasonably conservation input parameters in accordance with DOE-STD-3009, Appendix A, guidance. Revision 1 incorporates comments received from Office of River Protection.

Model Based Document and Report Generation for Systems Engineering

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Delp, Christopher; Lam, Doris; Fosse, Elyse; Lee, Cin-Young

2013-01-01

As Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) practices gain adoption, various approaches have been developed in order to simplify and automate the process of generating documents from models. Essentially, all of these techniques can be unified around the concept of producing different views of the model according to the needs of the intended audience. In this paper, we will describe a technique developed at JPL of applying SysML Viewpoints and Views to generate documents and reports. An architecture of model-based view and document generation will be presented, and the necessary extensions to SysML with associated rationale will be explained. A survey of examples will highlight a variety of views that can be generated, and will provide some insight into how collaboration and integration is enabled. We will also describe the basic architecture for the enterprise applications that support this approach.

Model based document and report generation for systems engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delp, C.; Lam, D.; Fosse, E.; Lee, Cin-Young

As Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) practices gain adoption, various approaches have been developed in order to simplify and automate the process of generating documents from models. Essentially, all of these techniques can be unified around the concept of producing different views of the model according to the needs of the intended audience. In this paper, we will describe a technique developed at JPL of applying SysML Viewpoints and Views to generate documents and reports. An architecture of model-based view and document generation will be presented, and the necessary extensions to SysML with associated rationale will be explained. A survey of examples will highlight a variety of views that can be generated, and will provide some insight into how collaboration and integration is enabled. We will also describe the basic architecture for the enterprise applications that support this approach.

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

PubMed

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-09-01

Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

The Tragic Bazooka Accident at Los Alamos on July 14, 1962

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skidmore, Cary Bradford

In recent years the Laboratory has made information (documents, photographs, and perspectives) regarding the occupational explosives accidents that killed seven men in the late 1950s more accessible to the public. While pursuing this effort, we were reminded of similar tragedies that occurred to children of the community. The purpose of this paper is to make information that has come into our hands more available to the public regarding these accidents. Following this introduction, a brief synopsis is provided for each accident. The appendices contain source documents for the 1962 accident that are not generally available. The community of Los Alamos,more » New Mexico was born out of a military post created to support the secret Manhattan Project during World War II. Security was provided by military police and some training exercises were conducted using live ordnance. In two instances unexploded ordnance (UXO) from this era was found “in the field” by residents hiking in the local area and brought into town. Tragically, handling these “bazooka” rounds as “dud” munitions resulted in death for one child and injury to several others. The first accident occurred on Saturday, September 6, 1947, which resulted in injuries to two boys, ages 5 and 12. The second accident occurred on Saturday, July 14, 1962 and resulted in the death of one five-year-old boy, and injuries to four other children, ages 6 to 10 years-old. The latter accident is the primary focus of the paper.« less

Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

2016-04-01

equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

Exploring the factors affecting motorway accident severity in England using the generalised ordered logistic regression model.

PubMed

Michalaki, Paraskevi; Quddus, Mohammed A; Pitfield, David; Huetson, Andrew

2015-12-01

The severity of motorway accidents that occurred on the hard shoulder (HS) is higher than for the main carriageway (MC). This paper compares and contrasts the most important factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways in England. Using police reported accident data, the accidents that occurred on motorways in England are grouped into two categories (i.e., HS and MC) according to the location. A generalized ordered logistic regression model is then applied to identify the factors affecting the severity of HS and MC accidents on motorways. The factors examined include accident and vehicle characteristics, traffic and environment conditions, as well as other behavioral factors. Results suggest that the factors positively affecting the severity include: number of vehicles involved in the accident, peak-hour traffic time, and low visibility. Differences between HS and MC accidents are identified, with the most important being the involvement of heavy goods vehicles (HGVs) and driver fatigue, which are found to be more crucial in increasing the severity of HS accidents. Measures to increase awareness of HGV drivers regarding the risk of fatigue when driving on motorways, and especially the nearside lane, should be taken by the stakeholders. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Model Documentation of Base Case Data | Regional Energy Deployment System

Science.gov Websites

Model | Energy Analysis | NREL Documentation of Base Case Data Model Documentation of Base Case base case of the model. The base case was developed simply as a point of departure for other analyses Base Case derives many of its inputs from the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy

A Re-Unification of Two Competing Models for Document Retrieval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodoff, David

1999-01-01

Examines query-oriented versus document-oriented information retrieval and feedback learning. Highlights include a reunification of the two approaches for probabilistic document retrieval and for vector space model (VSM) retrieval; learning in VSM and in probabilistic models; multi-dimensional scaling; and ongoing field studies. (LRW)

A Conceptual Model for Multidimensional Analysis of Documents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravat, Franck; Teste, Olivier; Tournier, Ronan; Zurlfluh, Gilles

Data warehousing and OLAP are mainly used for the analysis of transactional data. Nowadays, with the evolution of Internet, and the development of semi-structured data exchange format (such as XML), it is possible to consider entire fragments of data such as documents as analysis sources. As a consequence, an adapted multidimensional analysis framework needs to be provided. In this paper, we introduce an OLAP multidimensional conceptual model without facts. This model is based on the unique concept of dimensions and is adapted for multidimensional document analysis. We also provide a set of manipulation operations.

Investigation of shipping accident injury severity and mortality.

PubMed

Weng, Jinxian; Yang, Dong

2015-03-01

Shipping movements are operated in a complex and high-risk environment. Fatal shipping accidents are the nightmares of seafarers. With ten years' worldwide ship accident data, this study develops a binary logistic regression model and a zero-truncated binomial regression model to predict the probability of fatal shipping accidents and corresponding mortalities. The model results show that both the probability of fatal accidents and mortalities are greater for collision, fire/explosion, contact, grounding, sinking accidents occurred in adverse weather conditions and darkness conditions. Sinking has the largest effects on the increment of fatal accident probability and mortalities. The results also show that the bigger number of mortalities is associated with shipping accidents occurred far away from the coastal area/harbor/port. In addition, cruise ships are found to have more mortalities than non-cruise ships. The results of this study are beneficial for policy-makers in proposing efficient strategies to prevent fatal shipping accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Work-Related Accidents and Sharp Injuries in Paramedics—Illustrated with an Example of a Multi-Specialist Hospital, Located in Central Poland

PubMed Central

Szatko, Franciszek; Ulrichs, Magdalena

2017-01-01

(1) Background: An analysis of work-related accidents in paramedics in Poland by presenting the model and trend of accidents, accident rates and by identifying causes and results of accidents; (2) Methods: A retrospective analysis of medical documentation regarding work-related accidents in a multi-specialist hospital, located in central Poland, in the period 2005–2015. The study group included paramedics who had an accident while being on duty; (3) Results: According to hospital records, 88 paramedics were involved in 390 accidents and 265 injuries caused by sharp instruments. The annual accident rate was 5.34/100 employed paramedics. Most of the accidents occurred at night. The most common reason for the accident was careless behaviour of the paramedic, which resulted in joint sprains and dislocations. Injuries accounted for a huge portion of the total number of events. As many as 45% of injuries were not officially recorded; (4) Conclusion: High rates of work-related accidents and injuries caused by sharp instruments in paramedics are a serious public health problem. Further studies should be conducted in order to identify risk factors of accidents, particularly injuries, and to implement preventative programmes, aiming to minimise rates of occupational hazards for paramedics. PMID:28796193

Upon the reconstruction of accidents triggered by tire explosion. Analytical model and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gaiginschi, L.; Agape, I.; Talif, S.

2017-10-01

Accident Reconstruction is important in the general context of increasing road traffic safety. In the casuistry of traffic accidents, those caused by tire explosions are critical under the severity of consequences, because they are usually happening at high speeds. Consequently, the knowledge of the running speed of the vehicle involved at the time of the tire explosion is essential to elucidate the circumstances of the accident. The paper presents an analytical model for the kinematics of a vehicle which, after the explosion of one of its tires, begins to skid, overturns and rolls. The model consists of two concurent approaches built as applications of the momentum conservation and energy conservation principles, and allows determination of the initial speed of the vehicle involved, by running backwards the sequences of the road event. The authors also aimed to both validate the two distinct analytical approaches by calibrating the calculation algorithms on a case study

A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

PubMed Central

Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

2016-01-01

Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

Persistence of airline accidents.

PubMed

Barros, Carlos Pestana; Faria, Joao Ricardo; Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko

2010-10-01

This paper expands on air travel accident research by examining the relationship between air travel accidents and airline traffic or volume in the period from 1927-2006. The theoretical model is based on a representative airline company that aims to maximise its profits, and it utilises a fractional integration approach in order to determine whether there is a persistent pattern over time with respect to air accidents and air traffic. Furthermore, the paper analyses how airline accidents are related to traffic using a fractional cointegration approach. It finds that airline accidents are persistent and that a (non-stationary) fractional cointegration relationship exists between total airline accidents and airline passengers, airline miles and airline revenues, with shocks that affect the long-run equilibrium disappearing in the very long term. Moreover, this relation is negative, which might be due to the fact that air travel is becoming safer and there is greater competition in the airline industry. Policy implications are derived for countering accident events, based on competition and regulation. © 2010 The Author(s). Journal compilation © Overseas Development Institute, 2010.

Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

2012-01-01

In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

An investigation on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in China: Using multinomial logistic regression model.

PubMed

Peng, Yong; Peng, Shuangling; Wang, Xinghua; Tan, Shiyang

2018-06-01

This study aims to identify the effects of characteristics of vehicle, roadway, driver, and environment on fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents on expressways in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan district of Hunan province in China by developing multinomial logistic regression models. For this purpose, 121 vehicle-fixed object accidents from 2011-2017 are included in the modeling process. First, descriptive statistical analysis is made to understand the main characteristics of the vehicle-fixed object crashes. Then, 19 explanatory variables are selected, and correlation analysis of each two variables is conducted to choose the variables to be concluded. Finally, five multinomial logistic regression models including different independent variables are compared, and the model with best fitting and prediction capability is chosen as the final model. The results showed that the turning direction in avoiding fixed objects raised the possibility that drivers would die. About 64% of drivers died in the accident were found being ejected out of the car, of which 50% did not use a seatbelt before the fatal accidents. Drivers are likely to die when they encounter bad weather on the expressway. Drivers with less than 10 years of driving experience are more likely to die in these accidents. Fatigue or distracted driving is also a significant factor in fatality of drivers. Findings from this research provide an insight into reducing fatality of drivers in vehicle-fixed object accidents.

The relationships between organizational and individual variables to on-the-job driver accidents and accident-free kilometres.

PubMed

Caird, J K; Kline, T J

2004-12-01

Highway fatalities are the leading cause of fatal work injuries in the US, accounting for approximately 1 in 4 of the 5900 job-related deaths during 2001. The present study focused on the contribution of organizational factors and driver behaviours to on-the-job driving accidents in a large Western Canadian corporation. A structural equation modelling (SEM) approach was used which allows researchers to test a complex set of relationships within a global theoretical framework. A number of scales were used to assess organizational support, driver errors, and driver behaviours. The sample of professional drivers that participated allowed the recording of on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres from their personnel files. The pattern of relationships in the fitted model, after controlling for exposure and social desirability, provides insight into the role of organizational support, planning, environment adaptations, fatigue, speed, errors and moving citations to on-the-job accidents and accident-free kilometres. For example, organizational support affected the capacity to plan. Time to plan work-related driving was found to predict accidents, fatigue and adaptations to the environment. Other interesting model paths, SEM limitations, future research and recommendations are elaborated.

A few seconds to have an accident, a long time to recover: consequences for road accident victims from the ESPARR cohort 2 years after the accident.

PubMed

Tournier, Charlène; Charnay, Pierrette; Tardy, Hélène; Chossegros, Laetitia; Carnis, Laurent; Hours, Martine

2014-11-01

The aim of the present study was to describe the consequences of a road accident in adults, taking account of the type of road user, and to determine predictive factors for consequences at 2 years. Prospective follow-up study. The cohort was composed of 1168 victims of road traffic accidents, aged ≥16 years. Two years after the accident, 912 victims completed a self-administered questionnaire. Weighted logistic regression models were implemented to compare casualties still reporting impact related to the accident versus those reporting no residual impact. Five outcomes were analysed: unrecovered health status, impact on occupation or studies, on familial or affective life, on leisure or sport activities and but also the financial difficulties related to the accident. 46.1% of respondents were motorised four-wheel users, 29.6% motorised two-wheel (including quad) users, 13.3% pedestrians (including inline skate and push scooter users) and 11.1% cyclists. 53.3% reported unrecovered health status, 32.0% persisting impact on occupation or studies, 25.2% on familial or affective life, 46.9% on leisure or sport activities and 20.2% still had accident-related financial difficulties. Type of user, adjusted on age and gender, was linked to unrecovered health status and to impact on leisure or sport activities. When global severity (as measured by NISS) was integrated in the previous model, type of user was also associated with impact on occupation or studies. Type of user was further associated with impact on occupation or studies and on leisure or sport activities when global severity and the sociodemographic data obtained at inclusion were taken into account. It was not, however, related to any of the outcomes studied here, when the models focused on the injured body region. Finally, type of road user did not seem, on the various predictive models, to be related to financial difficulties due to the accident or to impact on familial or affective life. Overall, victims

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Heat Transfer Issues in Finite Element Analysis of Bounding Accidents in PPCS Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pampin, R.; Karditsas, P.J.

2005-05-15

Modelling of temperature excursions in structures of conceptual power plants during hypothetical worst-case accidents has been performed within the European Power Plant Conceptual Study (PPCS). A new, 3D finite elements (FE) based tool, coupling the different calculations to the same tokamak geometry, has been extensively used to conduct the neutron transport, activation and thermal analyses for all PPCS plant models. During a total loss of cooling, the usual assumption for the bounding accident, passive removal of the decay heat from activated materials depends on conduction and radiation heat exchange between components. This paper presents and discusses results obtained during themore » PPCS bounding accident thermal analyses, examining the following issues: (a) radiation heat exchange between the inner surfaces of the tokamak, (b) the presence of air within the cryostat volume, and the heat flow arising from the circulation pattern provided by temperature differences between various parts, and (c) the thermal conductivity of pebble beds, and its degradation due to exposure to neutron irradiation, affecting the heat transfer capability and thermal response of a blanket based on these components.« less

Development of fission-products transport model in severe-accident scenarios for Scdap/Relap5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honaiser, Eduardo Henrique Rangel

The understanding and estimation of the release of fission products during a severe accident became one of the priorities of the nuclear community after 1980, with the events of the Three-mile Island unit 2 (TMI-2), in 1979, and Chernobyl accidents, in 1986. Since this time, theoretical developments and experiments have shown that the primary circuit systems of light water reactors (LWR) have the potential to attenuate the release of fission products, a fact that had been neglected before. An advanced tool, compatible with nuclear thermal-hydraulics integral codes, is developed to predict the retention and physical evolution of the fission products in the primary circuit of LWRs, without considering the chemistry effects. The tool embodies the state-of-the-art models for the involved phenomena as well as develops new models. The capabilities acquired after the implementation of this tool in the Scdap/Relap5 code can be used to increase the accuracy of probability safety assessment (PSA) level 2, enhance the reactor accident management procedures and design new emergency safety features.

A study on industrial accident rate forecasting and program development of estimated zero accident time in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-gu; Kang, Young-sig; Lee, Hyung-won

2011-01-01

To begin a zero accident campaign for industry, the first thing is to estimate the industrial accident rate and the zero accident time systematically. This paper considers the social and technical change of the business environment after beginning the zero accident campaign through quantitative time series analysis methods. These methods include sum of squared errors (SSE), regression analysis method (RAM), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, and the proposed analytic function method (AFM). The program is developed to estimate the accident rate, zero accident time and achievement probability of an efficient industrial environment. In this paper, MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software of Visual Studio 2008 was used to develop a zero accident program. The results of this paper will provide major information for industrial accident prevention and be an important part of stimulating the zero accident campaign within all industrial environments.

Using phrases and document metadata to improve topic modeling of clinical reports.

PubMed

Speier, William; Ong, Michael K; Arnold, Corey W

2016-06-01

Probabilistic topic models provide an unsupervised method for analyzing unstructured text, which have the potential to be integrated into clinical automatic summarization systems. Clinical documents are accompanied by metadata in a patient's medical history and frequently contains multiword concepts that can be valuable for accurately interpreting the included text. While existing methods have attempted to address these problems individually, we present a unified model for free-text clinical documents that integrates contextual patient- and document-level data, and discovers multi-word concepts. In the proposed model, phrases are represented by chained n-grams and a Dirichlet hyper-parameter is weighted by both document-level and patient-level context. This method and three other Latent Dirichlet allocation models were fit to a large collection of clinical reports. Examples of resulting topics demonstrate the results of the new model and the quality of the representations are evaluated using empirical log likelihood. The proposed model was able to create informative prior probabilities based on patient and document information, and captured phrases that represented various clinical concepts. The representation using the proposed model had a significantly higher empirical log likelihood than the compared methods. Integrating document metadata and capturing phrases in clinical text greatly improves the topic representation of clinical documents. The resulting clinically informative topics may effectively serve as the basis for an automatic summarization system for clinical reports. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

[Prevention of occupational accidents with biological material as per Green and Kreuter Model].

PubMed

Manetti, Marcela Luisa; da Costa, João Carlos Souza; Marziale, Maria Helena Palucci; Trovó, Marli Elisa

2006-03-01

This study aimed at diagnosing the occurrence of occupational accidents deriving from exposition to biological substance among workers of a hospital from São Paulo, Brazil, analyzing the adopted safety measures and elaborating a flowchart of preventive actions according to the Health Promotion Model by Green and Kreuter. It is an exploratory study with data collected electronically from the website REPAT - Electronic Network for the Prevention of Occupational Accidents with biological substances. The strategy used by the hospital did not reduce the injures. Results were used to elaborate a flowchart of preventive actions in order to improve the workers' quality of life.

Research on Generating Method of Embedded Software Test Document Based on Dynamic Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qu, MingCheng; Wu, XiangHu; Tao, YongChao; Liu, Ying

2018-03-01

This paper provides a dynamic model-based test document generation method for embedded software that provides automatic generation of two documents: test requirements specification documentation and configuration item test documentation. This method enables dynamic test requirements to be implemented in dynamic models, enabling dynamic test demand tracking to be easily generated; able to automatically generate standardized, standardized test requirements and test documentation, improved document-related content inconsistency and lack of integrity And other issues, improve the efficiency.

Model documentation Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analaytical approach and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the 1996 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described.

Bus accident analysis of routes with/without bus priority.

PubMed

Goh, Kelvin Chun Keong; Currie, Graham; Sarvi, Majid; Logan, David

2014-04-01

This paper summarises findings on road safety performance and bus-involved accidents in Melbourne along roads where bus priority measures had been applied. Results from an empirical analysis of the accident types revealed significant reduction in the proportion of accidents involving buses hitting stationary objects and vehicles, which suggests the effect of bus priority in addressing manoeuvrability issues for buses. A mixed-effects negative binomial (MENB) regression and back-propagation neural network (BPNN) modelling of bus accidents considering wider influences on accident rates at a route section level also revealed significant safety benefits when bus priority is provided. Sensitivity analyses done on the BPNN model showed general agreement in the predicted accident frequency between both models. The slightly better performance recorded by the MENB model results suggests merits in adopting a mixed effects modelling approach for accident count prediction in practice given its capability to account for unobserved location and time-specific factors. A major implication of this research is that bus priority in Melbourne's context acts to improve road safety and should be a major consideration for road management agencies when implementing bus priority and road schemes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Volume 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gehman, Harold W., Jr.; Barry, John L.; Deal, Duane W.; Hallock, James N.; Hess, Kenneth W.; Hubbard, G. Scott; Logsdon, John M.; Osheroff, Douglas D.; Ride, Sally K.; Tetrault, Roger E.

2003-01-01

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board's independent investigation into the tragic February 1, 2003, loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its seven-member crew lasted nearly seven months and involved 13 Board members, approximately 120 Board investigators, and thousands of NASA and support personnel. Because the events that initiated the accident were not apparent for some time, the investigation's depth and breadth were unprecedented in NASA history. Further, the Board determined early in the investigation that it intended to put this accident into context. We considered it unlikely that the accident was a random event; rather, it was likely related in some degree to NASA's budgets, history, and program culture, as well as to the politics, compromises, and changing priorities of the democratic process. We are convinced that the management practices overseeing the Space Shuttle Program were as much a cause of the accident as the foam that struck the left wing. The Board was also influenced by discussions with members of Congress, who suggested that this nation needed a broad examination of NASA's Human Space Flight Program, rather than just an investigation into what physical fault caused Columbia to break up during re-entry. Findings and recommendations are in the relevant chapters and all recommendations are compiled in Chapter 11. Volume I is organized into four parts: The Accident; Why the Accident Occurred; A Look Ahead; and various appendices. To put this accident in context, Parts One and Two begin with histories, after which the accident is described and then analyzed, leading to findings and recommendations. Part Three contains the Board's views on what is needed to improve the safety of our voyage into space. Part Four is reference material. In addition to this first volume, there will be subsequent volumes that contain technical reports generated by the Columbia Accident Investigation Board and NASA, as well as volumes containing reference

Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

1985-07-01

Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence ofmore » dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.« less

Documenting AUTOGEN and APGEN Model Files

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gladden, Roy E.; Khanampompan, Teerapat; Fisher, Forest W.; DelGuericio, Chris c.

2008-01-01

A computer program called "autogen hypertext map generator" satisfies a need for documenting and assisting in visualization of, and navigation through, model files used in the AUTOGEN and APGEN software mentioned in the two immediately preceding articles. This program parses autogen script files, autogen model files, PERL scripts, and apgen activity-definition files and produces a hypertext map of the files to aid in the navigation of the model. This program also provides a facility for adding notes and descriptions, beyond what is in the source model represented by the hypertext map. Further, this program provides access to a summary of the model through variable, function, sub routine, activity and resource declarations as well as providing full access to the source model and source code. The use of the tool enables easy access to the declarations and the ability to traverse routines and calls while analyzing the model.

Credible investigation of air accidents.

PubMed

Smart, K

2004-07-26

Within the United Kingdom the Air Accidents Investigation Branch (AAIB) has been used as a model for the other transport modes accident investigation bodies. Government Ministers considered that the AAIB's approach had established the trust of the public and the aviation industry in its ability to conduct independent and objective investigations. The paper will examine the factors that are involved in establishing this trust. They include: the investigation framework; the actual and perceived independence of the accident investigating body; the aviation industry's safety culture; the qualities of the investigators and the quality of their liaison with bereaved families those directly affected by the accidents they investigate.

Computational modeling of driver speed control with its applications in developing intelligent transportation system to prevent speeding-related accidents.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Speeding is the leading contributing factor in fatal accidents in NY state, according to NY State Department of Motor : Vehicle Accidents Statistical Summary (2009). Understanding and modeling speeding and speed control is one of major : challenges i...

Rough set approach for accident chains exploration.

PubMed

Wong, Jinn-Tsai; Chung, Yi-Shih

2007-05-01

This paper presents a novel non-parametric methodology--rough set theory--for accident occurrence exploration. The rough set theory allows researchers to analyze accidents in multiple dimensions and to model accident occurrence as factor chains. Factor chains are composed of driver characteristics, trip characteristics, driver behavior and environment factors that imply typical accident occurrence. A real-world database (2003 Taiwan single auto-vehicle accidents) is used as an example to demonstrate the proposed approach. The results show that although most accident patterns are unique, some accident patterns are significant and worth noting. Student drivers who are young and less experienced exhibit a relatively high possibility of being involved in off-road accidents on roads with a speed limit between 51 and 79 km/h under normal driving circumstances. Notably, for bump-into-facility accidents, wet surface is a distinctive environmental factor.

Accident Report: Pupils -- Employees, School Jurisdiction, 1972-1973.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Hara, James M., Comp.; Conklin, Robert L., Comp.

This report is intended to provide principals, department heads, teachers, and parents with specific information designed to assist them in isolating unsafe conditions, activities, and behavioral problems. The document is divided into three parts: (1) a pupil section, with tables showing where accidents occurred, what parts of the body were…

Utilization of accident databases and fuzzy sets to estimate frequency of HazMat transport accidents.

PubMed

Qiao, Yuanhua; Keren, Nir; Mannan, M Sam

2009-08-15

Risk assessment and management of transportation of hazardous materials (HazMat) require the estimation of accident frequency. This paper presents a methodology to estimate hazardous materials transportation accident frequency by utilizing publicly available databases and expert knowledge. The estimation process addresses route-dependent and route-independent variables. Negative binomial regression is applied to an analysis of the Department of Public Safety (DPS) accident database to derive basic accident frequency as a function of route-dependent variables, while the effects of route-independent variables are modeled by fuzzy logic. The integrated methodology provides the basis for an overall transportation risk analysis, which can be used later to develop a decision support system.

Hot Cell Installation and Demonstration of the Severe Accident Test Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Linton, Kory D.; Burns, Zachary M.; Terrani, Kurt A.

A Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) capable of examining the oxidation kinetics and accident response of irradiated fuel and cladding materials for design basis accident (DBA) and beyond design basis accident (BDBA) scenarios has been successfully installed and demonstrated in the Irradiated Fuels Examination Laboratory (IFEL), a hot cell facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The two test station modules provide various temperature profiles, steam, and the thermal shock conditions necessary for integral loss of coolant accident (LOCA) testing, defueled oxidation quench testing and high temperature BDBA testing. The installation of the SATS system restores the domestic capability to examinemore » postulated and extended LOCA conditions on spent fuel and cladding and provides a platform for evaluation of advanced fuel and accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding concepts. This document reports on the successful in-cell demonstration testing of unirradiated Zircaloy-4. It also contains descriptions of the integral test facility capabilities, installation activities, and out-of-cell benchmark testing to calibrate and optimize the system.« less

MPS Solidification Model. Volume 2: Operating guide and software documentation for the unsteady model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maples, A. L.

1981-01-01

The operation of solidification Model 2 is described and documentation of the software associated with the model is provided. Model 2 calculates the macrosegregation in a rectangular ingot of a binary alloy as a result of unsteady horizontal axisymmetric bidirectional solidification. The solidification program allows interactive modification of calculation parameters as well as selection of graphical and tabular output. In batch mode, parameter values are input in card image form and output consists of printed tables of solidification functions. The operational aspects of Model 2 that differ substantially from Model 1 are described. The global flow diagrams and data structures of Model 2 are included. The primary program documentation is the code itself.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Residential Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Refinery Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Refinery Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Main Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Module

EIA Publications

2011-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

Measuring pedestrian volumes and conflicts. Volume IV, Pedestrian/vehicle accident prediction model : a users manual

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1988-03-01

Users of this manual are expected to be researchers who are attempting to develop models that can be used to predict occurrence of pedestrian accidents in a particular city. The manual presents guidelines in the development of such models. A group-...

Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land D.; Throop, David R.

2002-01-01

Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

Using the Data From Accidents and Natural Disasters to Improve Marine Debris Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maximenko, N. A.; Hafner, J.; MacFadyen, A.; Kamachi, M.; Murray, C. C.

2016-02-01

In the absence of satisfactory marine debris observing system, drift models provide a unique tool that can be used to identify main pathways and accumulation areas of the natural and anthropogenic debris, including the plastic pollution having increasing impact on the environment and raising concern of the society. Main problems, limiting the utility of model simulations, include the lack of accurate information on distribution, timing, strength and composition of sources of marine debris and the complexity of the hydrodynamics of an object, floating on the surface of a rough sea. To calculate the drift, commonly, models estimate surface currents first and then add the object motion relative to the water. Importantly, ocean surface velocity can't be measured with the existing instruments. For various applications it is derived from subsurface (such as 15-meter drifter trajectories) and satellite (altimetry, scatterometry) data using simple theories (geostrophy, Ekman spiral, etc.). Similarly, even the best ocean general circulation models (OGCM's), utilizing different parameterizations of the mixed layer, significantly disagree on the ocean surface velocities. Understanding debris motion under the direct wind force and in interaction with the breaking wind waves seems to be a task of even greater complexity. In this presentation, we demonstrate how the data of documented natural disasters (such as tsunamis, hurricanes and floods) and other accidents generating marine debris with known times and coordinates of start and/or end points of the trajectories, can be used to calibrate drift models and obtain meaningful quantitative results that can be generalized for other sources of debris and used to plan the future marine debris observing system. On these examples we also demonstrate how the oceanic and atmospheric circulations couple together to determine the pathways and destination areas of different types of the floating marine debris.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Transportation Module

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) International Transportation model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Electricity Module

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Industrial Module

EIA Publications

2016-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Industrial Model (WIM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

Predictions of structural integrity of steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, an severe accident conditions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Majumdar, S.

1997-02-01

Available models for predicting failure of flawed and unflawed steam generator tubes under normal operating, accident, and severe accident conditions are reviewed. Tests conducted in the past, though limited, tended to show that the earlier flow-stress model for part-through-wall axial cracks overestimated the damaging influence of deep cracks. This observation was confirmed by further tests at high temperatures, as well as by finite-element analysis. A modified correlation for deep cracks can correct this shortcoming of the model. Recent tests have shown that lateral restraint can significantly increase the failure pressure of tubes with unsymmetrical circumferential cracks. This observation was confirmedmore » by finite-element analysis. The rate-independent flow stress models that are successful at low temperatures cannot predict the rate-sensitive failure behavior of steam generator tubes at high temperatures. Therefore, a creep rupture model for predicting failure was developed and validated by tests under various temperature and pressure loadings that can occur during postulated severe accidents.« less

Application of the Life Change Unit model for the prevention of accident proneness among small to medium sized industries in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Youngsig; Hahm, Hyojoon; Yang, Sunghwan; Kim, Taegu

2008-10-01

Behavior models have provided an accident proneness concept based on life change unit (LCU) factors. This paper describes the development of a Korean Life Change Unit (KLCU) model for workers and managers in fatal accident areas, as well as an evaluation of its application. Results suggest that death of parents is the highest stress-giving factor for employees of small and medium sized industries a rational finding the viewpoint of Korean culture. The next stress-giving factors were shown to be the death of a spouse or loved ones, followed by the death of close family members, the death of close friends, changes of family members' health, unemployment, and jail terms. It turned out that these factors have a serious effect on industrial accidents and work-related diseases. The death of parents and close friends are ranked higher in the KLCU model than that of Western society. Crucial information for industrial accident prevention in real fields will be provided and the provided information will be useful for safety management programs related to accident prevention.

Model of cyclist accident characteristics in the city of Malang and Blitar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arifin, M. Z.; Agustin, I. W.

2018-01-01

Utilization of bicycles as an environmentally friendly mode of transportation is reconcerned as the development of sustainable transportation programs. The use of bicycles in some developed countries such as the Netherlands is 27 per cent of total travel, while for developing countries such as Indonesia, cyclists are less than 1% of total travel with low educated characteristics (65 per cent) and low income (48 per cent). Cyclist reduces dependencies on petroleum and environmental pollution as well as lessen the occurrence of congestion and traffic accidents involving motor vehicles. It was necessary to know the behavior and interaction of bicycle riders with other vehicle users in a heterogeneous traffic flow. The main purpose of the research is to create a model of bicycle accidents to increase the road traffic safety in Malang city and Blitar city. The research used analyses of frequency, the road’s level of service, and multiple linear regression. The results showed that there was a need for a development basis of a special lane for bicycle. It aims to reduce the level and number of cyclist accidents and to achieve transportation safety as well as to raise public awareness in traffic safety.

Model-based document categorization employing semantic pattern analysis and local structure clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fume, Kosei; Ishitani, Yasuto

2008-01-01

We propose a document categorization method based on a document model that can be defined externally for each task and that categorizes Web content or business documents into a target category in accordance with the similarity of the model. The main feature of the proposed method consists of two aspects of semantics extraction from an input document. The semantics of terms are extracted by the semantic pattern analysis and implicit meanings of document substructure are specified by a bottom-up text clustering technique focusing on the similarity of text line attributes. We have constructed a system based on the proposed method for trial purposes. The experimental results show that the system achieves more than 80% classification accuracy in categorizing Web content and business documents into 15 or 70 categories.

Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-02-26

The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of amore » two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.« less

Analyzing the causation of a railway accident based on a complex network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Xin; Li, Ke-Ping; Luo, Zi-Yan; Zhou, Jin

2014-02-01

In this paper, a new model is constructed for the causation analysis of railway accident based on the complex network theory. In the model, the nodes are defined as various manifest or latent accident causal factors. By employing the complex network theory, especially its statistical indicators, the railway accident as well as its key causations can be analyzed from the overall perspective. As a case, the “7.23” China—Yongwen railway accident is illustrated based on this model. The results show that the inspection of signals and the checking of line conditions before trains run played an important role in this railway accident. In conclusion, the constructed model gives a theoretical clue for railway accident prediction and, hence, greatly reduces the occurrence of railway accidents.

Characteristics of injuries caused by paragliding accidents: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Canbek, Umut; İmerci, Ahmet; Akgün, Ulaş; Yeşil, Murat; Aydin, Ali; Balci, Yasemin

2015-01-01

This study was undertaken to analyze the characteristics and risk factors relating to fatalities and injuries caused by paragliding. The judicial examination reports and hospital documents of 82 patients traumatized in 64 accidents during 242 355 paragliding jumps between August 2004 and September 2011 were analyzed. In these accidents, 18 of the 82 patients lost their lives. In the patients with a confirmed cause of accident, most of them were involved with multiple fractures and internal organ injuries (n=8, 44.4%). We investigated the incidence of paragliding injuries, the types of the injuries, and the severity of affected anatomical regions. The findings are significant for the prevention of paragliding injuries and future research.

A model for enhancing Internet medical document retrieval with "medical core metadata".

PubMed

Malet, G; Munoz, F; Appleyard, R; Hersh, W

1999-01-01

Finding documents on the World Wide Web relevant to a specific medical information need can be difficult. The goal of this work is to define a set of document content description tags, or metadata encodings, that can be used to promote disciplined search access to Internet medical documents. The authors based their approach on a proposed metadata standard, the Dublin Core Metadata Element Set, which has recently been submitted to the Internet Engineering Task Force. Their model also incorporates the National Library of Medicine's Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) vocabulary and MEDLINE-type content descriptions. The model defines a medical core metadata set that can be used to describe the metadata for a wide variety of Internet documents. The authors propose that their medical core metadata set be used to assign metadata to medical documents to facilitate document retrieval by Internet search engines.

A systems modeling methodology for evaluation of vehicle aggressivity in the automotive accident environment

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-03-05

A systems modeling approach is presented for assessment of harm in the automotive accident environment. The methodology is presented in general form and then applied to evaluate vehicle aggressivity in frontal crashes. The methodology consists of par...

ADAM: An Accident Diagnostic,Analysis and Management System - Applications to Severe Accident Simulation and Management

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zavisca, M.J.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.; Esmaili, H.

2002-07-01

The Accident Diagnostic, Analysis and Management (ADAM) computer code has been developed as a tool for on-line applications to accident diagnostics, simulation, management and training. ADAM's severe accident simulation capabilities incorporate a balance of mechanistic, phenomenologically based models with simple parametric approaches for elements including (but not limited to) thermal hydraulics; heat transfer; fuel heatup, meltdown, and relocation; fission product release and transport; combustible gas generation and combustion; and core-concrete interaction. The overall model is defined by a relatively coarse spatial nodalization of the reactor coolant and containment systems and is advanced explicitly in time. The result is to enablemore » much faster than real time (i.e., 100 to 1000 times faster than real time on a personal computer) applications to on-line investigations and/or accident management training. Other features of the simulation module include provision for activation of water injection, including the Engineered Safety Features, as well as other mechanisms for the assessment of accident management and recovery strategies and the evaluation of PSA success criteria. The accident diagnostics module of ADAM uses on-line access to selected plant parameters (as measured by plant sensors) to compute the thermodynamic state of the plant, and to predict various margins to safety (e.g., times to pressure vessel saturation and steam generator dryout). Rule-based logic is employed to classify the measured data as belonging to one of a number of likely scenarios based on symptoms, and a number of 'alarms' are generated to signal the state of the reactor and containment. This paper will address the features and limitations of ADAM with particular focus on accident simulation and management. (authors)« less

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

MELCOR simulations of the severe accident at Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3

DOE PAGES

Cardoni, Jeffrey; Gauntt, Randall; Kalinich, Donald; ...

2014-05-01

In response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station in Japan, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and U.S. Department of Energy agreed to jointly sponsor an accident reconstruction study as a means of assessing the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR code. Objectives of the project included reconstruction of the accident progressions using computer models and accident data, and validation of the MELCOR code and the Fukushima models against plant data. A MELCOR 2.1 model of the Fukushima Daiichi Unit 3 reactor is developed using plant-specific information and accident-specific boundary conditions, which involve considerable uncertainty duemore » to the inherent nature of severe accidents. Publicly available thermal-hydraulic data and radioactivity release estimates have evolved significantly since the accidents. Such data are expected to continually change as the reactors are decommissioned and more measurements are performed. As a result, the MELCOR simulations in this work primarily use boundary conditions that are based on available plant data as of May 2012.« less

Scenario analysis of freight vehicle accident risks in Taiwan.

PubMed

Tsai, Ming-Chih; Su, Chien-Chih

2004-07-01

This study develops a quantitative risk model by utilizing Generalized Linear Interactive Model (GLIM) to analyze the major freight vehicle accidents in Taiwan. Eight scenarios are established by interacting three categorical variables of driver ages, vehicle types and road types, each of which contains two levels. The database that consists of 2043 major accidents occurring between 1994 and 1998 in Taiwan is utilized to fit and calibrate the model parameters. The empirical results indicate that accident rates of freight vehicles in Taiwan were high in the scenarios involving trucks and non-freeway systems, while; accident consequences were severe in the scenarios involving mature drivers or non-freeway systems. Empirical evidences also show that there is no significant relationship between accident rates and accident consequences. This is to stress that safety studies that describe risk merely as accident rates rather than the combination of accident rates and consequences by definition might lead to biased risk perceptions. Finally, the study recommends using number of vehicle as an alternative of traffic exposure in commercial vehicle risk analysis. The merits of this would be that it is simple and thus reliable; meanwhile, the resulted risk that is termed as fatalities per vehicle could provide clear and direct policy implications for insurance practices and safety regulations.

Three Dimensional Modeling via Photographs for Documentation of a Village Bath

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Balta, H. B.; Hamamcioglu-Turan, M.; Ocali, O.

2013-07-01

The aim of this study is supporting the conceptual discussions of architectural restoration with three dimensional modeling of monuments based on photogrammetric survey. In this study, a 16th century village bath in Ulamış, Seferihisar, and Izmir is modeled for documentation. Ulamış is one of the historical villages within which Turkish population first settled in the region of Seferihisar - Urla. The methodology was tested on an antique monument; a bath with a cubical form. Within the limits of this study, only the exterior of the bath was modeled. The presentation scale for the bath was determined as 1 / 50, considering the necessities of designing structural interventions and architectural ones within the scope of a restoration project. The three dimensional model produced is a realistic document presenting the present situation of the ruin. Traditional plan, elevation and perspective drawings may be produced from the model, in addition to the realistic textured renderings and wireframe representations. The model developed in this study provides opportunity for presenting photorealistic details of historical morphologies in scale. Compared to conventional drawings, the renders based on the 3d models provide an opportunity for conceiving architectural details such as color, material and texture. From these documents, relatively more detailed restitution hypothesis can be developed and intervention decisions can be taken. Finally, the principles derived from the case study can be used for 3d documentation of historical structures with irregular surfaces.

Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies,more » market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.« less

Training of Existing Workers: Issues, Incentives and Models. Support Document

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mawer, Giselle; Jackson, Elaine

2005-01-01

This document was produced by the authors based on their research for the report, "Training of Existing Workers: Issues, Incentives and Models," (ED495138) and is an added resource for further information. This support document is divided into the following sections: (1) The Retail Industry--A Snapshot; (2) Case Studies--Hardware, Retail…

Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

PubMed

Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

2008-03-01

There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components.

Documenting Ground-Water Modeling at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Substances

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This report is the product of the Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group. This report demonstrates how to document model applications in a consistent manner and is intended to assist technical staff.

Do alcohol excise taxes affect traffic accidents? Evidence from Estonia.

PubMed

Saar, Indrek

2015-01-01

This article examines the association between alcohol excise tax rates and alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia. Monthly time series of traffic accidents involving drunken motor vehicle drivers from 1998 through 2013 were regressed on real average alcohol excise tax rates while controlling for changes in economic conditions and the traffic environment. Specifically, regression models with autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) errors were estimated in order to deal with serial correlation in residuals. Counterfactual models were also estimated in order to check the robustness of the results, using the level of non-alcohol-related traffic accidents as a dependent variable. A statistically significant (P <.01) strong negative relationship between the real average alcohol excise tax rate and alcohol-related traffic accidents was disclosed under alternative model specifications. For instance, the regression model with ARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1) errors revealed that a 1-unit increase in the tax rate is associated with a 1.6% decrease in the level of accidents per 100,000 population involving drunk motor vehicle drivers. No similar association was found in the cases of counterfactual models for non-alcohol-related traffic accidents. This article indicates that the level of alcohol-related traffic accidents in Estonia has been affected by changes in real average alcohol excise taxes during the period 1998-2013. Therefore, in addition to other measures, the use of alcohol taxation is warranted as a policy instrument in tackling alcohol-related traffic accidents.

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

DOE PAGES

Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

2016-11-02

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

Trucks involved in fatal accidents codebook 2004 (Version March 23, 2007).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2007-03-01

"This report provides documentation for UMTRIs file of Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents (TIFA), : 2004, including distributions of the code values for each variable in the file. The 2004 TIFA file is : a census of all medium and heavy trucks inv...

Trucks involved in fatal accidents codebook 2010 (Version October 22, 2012).

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-11-01

This report provides documentation for UMTRIs file of Trucks Involved in Fatal Accidents : (TIFA), 2010, including distributions of the code values for each variable in the file. The 2010 : TIFA file is a census of all medium and heavy trucks invo...

Characteristics of injuries caused by paragliding accidents: A cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Canbek, Umut; İmerci, Ahmet; Akgün, Ulaş; Yeşil, Murat; Aydin, Ali; Balci, Yasemin

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: This study was undertaken to analyze the characteristics and risk factors relating to fatalities and injuries caused by paragliding. METHODS: The judicial examination reports and hospital documents of 82 patients traumatized in 64 accidents during 242 355 paragliding jumps between August 2004 and September 2011 were analyzed. RESULTS: In these accidents, 18 of the 82 patients lost their lives. In the patients with a confirmed cause of accident, most of them were involved with multiple fractures and internal organ injuries (n=8, 44.4%). CONCLUSION: We investigated the incidence of paragliding injuries, the types of the injuries, and the severity of affected anatomical regions. The findings are significant for the prevention of paragliding injuries and future research. PMID:26401185

Behavior of road accidents: Structural time series approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir; Arsad, Zainudin

2014-12-01

Road accidents become a major issue in contributing to the increasing number of deaths. Few researchers suggest that road accidents occur due to road structure and road condition. The road structure and condition may differ according to the area and volume of traffic of the location. Therefore, this paper attempts to look up the behavior of the road accidents in four main regions in Peninsular Malaysia by employing a structural time series (STS) approach. STS offers the possibility of modelling the unobserved component such as trends and seasonal component and it is allowed to vary over time. The results found that the number of road accidents is described by a different model. Perhaps, the results imply that the government, especially a policy maker should consider to implement a different approach in ways to overcome the increasing number of road accidents.

Embedding Term Similarity and Inverse Document Frequency into a Logical Model of Information Retrieval.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Losada, David E.; Barreiro, Alvaro

2003-01-01

Proposes an approach to incorporate term similarity and inverse document frequency into a logical model of information retrieval. Highlights include document representation and matching; incorporating term similarity into the measure of distance; new algorithms for implementation; inverse document frequency; and logical versus classical models of…

Documentation of the Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreak-population model.

Treesearch

J.J. Colbert; W. Scott Overton; Curtis. White

1979-01-01

Documentation of three model versions: the Douglas-fir tussock moth population-branch model on (1) daily temporal resolution, (2) instart temporal resolution, and (3) the Douglas-fir tussock moth stand-outbreak model; the hierarchical framework and the conceptual paradigm used are described. The coupling of the model with a normal-stand model is discussed. The modeling...

MSW Time to Tumor Model and Supporting Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The multistage Weibull (MSW) time-to-tumor model and related documentation were developed principally (but not exclusively) for conducting time-to-tumor analyses to support risk assessments under the IRIS program. These programs and related docum...

Documentation for Three Wake Vortex Model Data Sets from Simulation of Flight 587 Wake Vortex Encounter Accident Case

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Switzer, George F.

2008-01-01

This document contains a general description for data sets of a wake vortex system in a turbulent environment. The turbulence and thermal stratification of the environment are representative of the conditions on November 12, 2001 near John F. Kennedy International Airport. The simulation assumes no ambient winds. The full three dimensional simulation of the wake vortex system from a Boeing 747 predicts vortex circulation levels at 80% of their initial value at the time of the proposed vortex encounter. The linked vortex oval orientation showed no twisting, and the oval elevations at the widest point were about 20 meters higher than where the vortex pair joined. Fred Proctor of NASA?s Langley Research Center presented the results from this work at the NTSB public hearing that started 29 October 2002. This document contains a description of each data set including: variables, coordinate system, data format, and sample plots. Also included are instructions on how to read the data.

[The incidence of accidents at work among paramedics in the years 2001-2013 based on the register of one selected hospital].

PubMed

Garus-Pakowska, Anna; Gaszyńska, Ewelina; Szatko, Franciszek

Paramedics are exposed to a number of factors that may have a direct or indirect impact on the risk of an accident at work. The aim of the study was to analyze the incidence of accidents at work among paramedics as well as to discuss risk factors and measures to prevent such cases. The data on accidents at work were obtained from unpublished internal hospital documentation. The results were subjected to statistical analysis. In the years 2001-2013 there were 40 events, including 6 collective accidents, in which 41 paramedics of the emergency department were injured. On average, around 3 accidents involving paramedics occurred each year. The accidents happened most frequently in the evening and at night and in the winter months (statistically insignificant relationship). Incorrect behavior of the paramedics was the most common cause of an accident (75.6%) and musculoskeletal injuries (75%) most frequently of upper and lower limbs (55%) were the most common effects of an accident. In none of the cases safety regulations were breached by employees or employer. Accidents among paramedics can be prevented by changing the interior design of and the medical equipment installation in the rear cabin of the ambulance, conducting regular training to upgrade the skills of paramedics and enriching their knowledge about health and safety in their widest meaning. Med Pr 2016;67(2):213-221. This work is available in Open Access model and licensed under a CC BY-NC 3.0 PL license.

School sports accidents: analysis of causes, modes, and frequencies.

PubMed

Kelm, J; Ahlhelm, F; Pape, D; Pitsch, W; Engel, C

2001-01-01

About 5% of all school children are seriously injured during physical education every year. Because of its influence on children's attitude toward sports and the economic aspects, an evaluation of causes and medical consequences is necessary. In this study, 213 school sports accidents were investigated. Besides diagnosis, the localization of injuries, as well as the duration of the sick leave were documented. Average age of injured students was 13 years. Most of the injured students blamed themselves for the accident. The most common injuries were sprains, contusions, and fractures. Main reasons for the accidents were faults in basic motion training. Playing soccer and basketball were the most frequent reasons for injuries. The upper extremity was more frequently involved than the lower extremity. Sports physicians and teachers should work out a program outlining the individual needs and capabilities of the injured students to reintegrate them into physical education.

Type A Accident Investigation Board report on the January 17, 1996, electrical accident with injury in Technical Area 21 Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility Los Alamos National Laboratory. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

1996-04-01

An electrical accident was investigated in which a crafts person received serious injuries as a result of coming into contact with a 13.2 kilovolt (kV) electrical cable in the basement of Building 209 in Technical Area 21 (TA-21-209) in the Tritium Science and Fabrication Facility (TSFF) at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). In conducting its investigation, the Accident Investigation Board used various analytical techniques, including events and causal factor analysis, barrier analysis, change analysis, fault tree analysis, materials analysis, and root cause analysis. The board inspected the accident site, reviewed events surrounding the accident, conducted extensive interviews and document reviews,more » and performed causation analyses to determine the factors that contributed to the accident, including any management system deficiencies. Relevant management systems and factors that could have contributed to the accident were evaluated in accordance with the guiding principles of safety management identified by the Secretary of Energy in an October 1994 letter to the Defense Nuclear Facilities Safety Board and subsequently to Congress.« less

Prediction of road accidents: A Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Deublein, Markus; Schubert, Matthias; Adey, Bryan T; Köhler, Jochen; Faber, Michael H

2013-03-01

In this paper a novel methodology for the prediction of the occurrence of road accidents is presented. The methodology utilizes a combination of three statistical methods: (1) gamma-updating of the occurrence rates of injury accidents and injured road users, (2) hierarchical multivariate Poisson-lognormal regression analysis taking into account correlations amongst multiple dependent model response variables and effects of discrete accident count data e.g. over-dispersion, and (3) Bayesian inference algorithms, which are applied by means of data mining techniques supported by Bayesian Probabilistic Networks in order to represent non-linearity between risk indicating and model response variables, as well as different types of uncertainties which might be present in the development of the specific models. Prior Bayesian Probabilistic Networks are first established by means of multivariate regression analysis of the observed frequencies of the model response variables, e.g. the occurrence of an accident, and observed values of the risk indicating variables, e.g. degree of road curvature. Subsequently, parameter learning is done using updating algorithms, to determine the posterior predictive probability distributions of the model response variables, conditional on the values of the risk indicating variables. The methodology is illustrated through a case study using data of the Austrian rural motorway network. In the case study, on randomly selected road segments the methodology is used to produce a model to predict the expected number of accidents in which an injury has occurred and the expected number of light, severe and fatally injured road users. Additionally, the methodology is used for geo-referenced identification of road sections with increased occurrence probabilities of injury accident events on a road link between two Austrian cities. It is shown that the proposed methodology can be used to develop models to estimate the occurrence of road accidents for any

Relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders.

PubMed

Lu, Guangquan; Cheng, Bo; Kuzumaki, Seigo; Mei, Bingsong

2011-08-01

Road traffic conflicts can be used to estimate the probability of accident occurrence, assess road safety, or evaluate road safety programs if the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts is known. To this end, we propose a model for the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts recorded by drive recorders (DRs). DRs were installed in 50 cars in Beijing to collect records of traffic conflicts. Data containing 1366 conflicts were collected in 193 days. The hourly distributions of conflicts and accidents were used to model the relationship between accidents and conflicts. To eliminate time series and base number effects, we defined and used 2 parameters: average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour and average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour. A model was developed to describe the relationship between the two parameters. If A(i) = average annual number of accidents per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, and E(i) = average number of conflicts per 10,000 vehicles per hour at hour i, the relationship can be expressed as [Formula in text] (α>0, β>0). The average number of traffic accidents increases as the number of conflicts rises, but the rate of increase decelerates as the number of conflicts increases further. The proposed model can describe the relationship between road traffic accidents and conflicts in a simple manner. According to our analysis, the model fits the present data.

Transition of care for the elderly after cerebrovascular accidents--from hospital to the home.

PubMed

Rodrigues, Rosalina Aparecida Partezani; Marques, Sueli; Kusumota, Luciana; dos Santos, Emanuella Barros; Fhon, Jack Roberto da Silva; Fabrício-Wehbe, Suzele Cristina Coelho

2013-01-01

to examine the transition of care in families caring for elderly persons who suffered the first episode of a cerebrovascular accident. an instrumental ethnographic case study was used. The sample comprised 20 subjects: 10 caregivers and 10 elderly persons aged 65 or over, of both sexes, with diagnoses of first episode of cerebrovascular accident, capable of communicating, and requiring care from a main carer in their family. The data was collected through interviews, observation, existing documentation and field notes. Qualitative analysis techniques were used to codify and classify the data and to formulate significant categories, which generated typologies of care. The central idea was the Transition of Care and showed the context in three typologies: The care process for the dependent elderly person, Strategies for the care process and Impact and acceptance of the limitations. The data indicates that caring for an elderly person after a cerebrovascular accident is a challenge for the family. The data permitted it possible to elaborate a proposal for a model for the organization of the work, with a view to holistic care delivery in the health services, forming a care network, which constitutes an advance for the area of nursing.

Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L

In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functionsmore » which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.« less

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Module

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) District Heat Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Greenhouse Gases Module

EIA Publications

2011-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Greenhouse Gases Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Natural Gas Module

EIA Publications

2011-01-01

This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Natural Gas Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

Interface for the documentation and compilation of a library of computer models in physiology.

PubMed Central

Summers, R. L.; Montani, J. P.

1994-01-01

A software interface for the documentation and compilation of a library of computer models in physiology was developed. The interface is an interactive program built within a word processing template in order to provide ease and flexibility of documentation. A model editor within the interface directs the model builder as to standardized requirements for incorporating models into the library and provides the user with an index to the levels of documentation. The interface and accompanying library are intended to facilitate model development, preservation and distribution and will be available for public use. PMID:7950046

Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

PubMed Central

Boden, L I

1985-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents. PMID:3985237

Government regulation of occupational safety: underground coal mine accidents 1973-75.

PubMed

Boden, L I

1985-05-01

The purpose of this paper is to determine the influence of federal mine safety inspections on underground coal mine accidents. An economic incentives model is developed to relate federal enforcement activities to accident rates. The determinants of accident rates are analyzed for 535 coal mines during the period 1973-75. Estimates based on these data when applied to the model indicate that increasing inspections by 25 per cent would have produced a 13 per cent decline in fatal accidents and an 18 per cent decline in disabling accidents.

APT Blanket System Loss-of-Coolant Accident (LOCA) Based on Initial Conceptual Design - Case 2: with Beam Shutdown Only

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hamm, L.L.

1998-10-07

This report is one of a series of reports that document normal operation and accident simulations for the Accelerator Production of Tritium (APT) blanket heat removal system. These simulations were performed for the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report. This report documents the results of simulations of a Loss-of-Flow Accident (LOFA) where power is lost to all of the pumps that circulate water in the blanket region, the accelerator beam is shut off and neither the residual heat removal nor cavity flood systems operate.

Authorization basis supporting documentation for plutonium finishing plant

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

King, J.P., Fluor Daniel Hanford

1997-03-05

The identification and definition of the authorization basis for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) facility and operations are essential for compliance to DOE Order 5480.21, Unreviewed Safety Questions. The authorization basis, as defined in the Order, consists of those aspects of the facility design basis, i.e., the structures, systems and components (SSCS) and the operational requirements that are considered to be important to the safety of operations and are relied upon by DOE to authorize operation of the facility. These facility design features and their function in various accident scenarios are described in WHC-SD-CP-SAR-021, Plutonium Finishing Plant Final Safety Analysismore » Report (FSAR), Chapter 9, `Accident Analysis.` Figure 1 depicts the relationship of the Authorization Basis to its components and other information contained in safety documentation supporting the Authorization Basis. The PFP SSCs that are important to safety, collectively referred to as the `Safety Envelope` are discussed in various chapters of the FSAR and in WHC-SD-CP-OSR-010, Plutonium Finishing Plant Operational Safety Requirements. Other documents such as Criticality Safety Evaluation Reports (CSERS) address and support some portions of the Authorization Basis and Safety Envelope.« less

Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

PubMed

Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

2010-09-01

Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death. © 2010 Society for Risk Analysis.

Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model: Theory, Application and User Documentation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schwarz, G.E.; Hoos, A.B.; Alexander, R.B.; Smith, R.A.

2006-01-01

SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) is a watershed modeling technique for relating water-quality measurements made at a network of monitoring stations to attributes of the watersheds containing the stations. The core of the model consists of a nonlinear regression equation describing the non-conservative transport of contaminants from point and diffuse sources on land to rivers and through the stream and river network. The model predicts contaminant flux, concentration, and yield in streams and has been used to evaluate alternative hypotheses about the important contaminant sources and watershed properties that control transport over large spatial scales. This report provides documentation for the SPARROW modeling technique and computer software to guide users in constructing and applying basic SPARROW models. The documentation gives details of the SPARROW software, including the input data and installation requirements, and guidance in the specification, calibration, and application of basic SPARROW models, as well as descriptions of the model output and its interpretation. The documentation is intended for both researchers and water-resource managers with interest in using the results of existing models and developing and applying new SPARROW models. The documentation of the model is presented in two parts. Part 1 provides a theoretical and practical introduction to SPARROW modeling techniques, which includes a discussion of the objectives, conceptual attributes, and model infrastructure of SPARROW. Part 1 also includes background on the commonly used model specifications and the methods for estimating and evaluating parameters, evaluating model fit, and generating water-quality predictions and measures of uncertainty. Part 2 provides a user's guide to SPARROW, which includes a discussion of the software architecture and details of the model input requirements and output files, graphs, and maps. The text documentation and computer

Airport Performance Model : Volume 2 - User's Manual and Program Documentation

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1978-10-01

Volume II contains a User's manual and program documentation for the Airport Performance Model. This computer-based model is written in FORTRAN IV for the DEC-10. The user's manual describes the user inputs to the interactive program and gives sample...

Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

PubMed

Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

2012-03-09

Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

Medical and Toxicological Factors in Aircraft Accidents,

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-04-01

Aviation Administration LOffice of Aviation Medicine Washington, D.C. 20591 COP 80 8 8 010’ NOTICE This document is disseminated under the sponsorship...No. Oklahoma City, Oklahoma 73125 13. Type of rt and Perod Covered 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address -- Office of Aviation Medicine I /I I Federal...are routinely screened for in accident victims, but positive results are unusual. marihuana is a drug of more widespread use, but it has been

A method to relate chemical accident properties and expert judgements in order to derive useful information for the development of Environment-Accident Index.

PubMed

Scott Andersson, Asa; Tysklind, Mats; Fängmark, Ingrid

2007-08-17

The environment consists of a variety of different compartments and processes that act together in a complex system that complicate the environmental risk assessment after a chemical accident. The Environment-Accident Index (EAI) is an example of a tool based on a strategy to join the properties of a chemical with site-specific properties to facilitate this assessment and to be used in the planning process. In the development of the EAI it is necessary to make an unbiased judgement of relevant variables to include in the formula and to estimate their relative importance. The development of EAI has so far included the assimilation of chemical accidents, selection of a representative set of chemical accidents, and response values (representing effects in the environment after a chemical accident) have been developed by means of an expert panel. The developed responses were then related to the chemical and site-specific properties, through a mathematical model based on multivariate modelling (PLS), to create an improved EAI model. This resulted in EAI(new), a PLS based EAI model connected to a new classification scale. The advantages of EAI(new) compared to the old EAI (EAI(old)) is that it can be calculated without the use of tables, it can estimate the effects for all included responses and make a rough classification of chemical accidents according to the new classification scale. Finally EAI(new) is a more stable model than EAI(old), built on a valid base of accident scenarios which makes it more reliable to use for a variety of chemicals and situations as it covers a broader spectra of accident scenarios. EAI(new) can be expressed as a regression model to facilitate the calculation of the index for persons that do not have access to PLS. Future work can be; an external validation of EAI(new); to complete the formula structure; to adjust the classification scale; and to make a real life evaluation of EAI(new).

TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

2013-03-01

The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensorsmore » that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data

TMI-2 - A Case Study for PWR Instrumentation Performance during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Joy L. Rempe; Darrell L. Knudson

2014-05-01

The accident at the Three Mile Island Unit 2 (TMI-2) reactor provided a unique opportunity to evaluate sensors exposed to severe accident conditions. Conditions associated with the release of coolant and the hydrogen burn that occurred during this accident exposed instrumentation to harsh conditions, including direct radiation, radioactive contamination, and high humidity with elevated temperatures and pressures. As part of a program initiated in 2012 by the Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE), a review was completed to gain insights from prior TMI-2 sensor survivability and data qualification efforts. This new effort focussed upon a set of sensorsmore » that provided critical data to TMI-2 operators for assessing the condition of the plant and the effects of mitigating actions taken by these operators. In addition, the effort considered sensors providing data required for subsequent accident simulations. Over 100 references related to instrumentation performance and post-accident evaluations of TMI-2 sensors and measurements were reviewed. Insights gained from this review are summarized within this report. For each sensor, a description is provided with the measured data and conclusions related to the sensor’s survivability, and the basis for conclusions about its survivability. As noted within this document, several techniques were invoked in the TMI-2 post-accident evaluation program to assess sensor status, including comparisons with data from other sensors, analytical calculations, laboratory testing, and comparisons with sensors subjected to similar conditions in large-scale integral tests and with sensors that were similar in design but more easily removed from the TMI-2 plant for evaluations. Conclusions from this review provide important insights related to sensor survivability and enhancement options for improving sensor performance. In addition, this document provides recommendations related to the sensor survivability and data

A Model for Enhancing Internet Medical Document Retrieval with “Medical Core Metadata”

PubMed Central

Malet, Gary; Munoz, Felix; Appleyard, Richard; Hersh, William

1999-01-01

Objective: Finding documents on the World Wide Web relevant to a specific medical information need can be difficult. The goal of this work is to define a set of document content description tags, or metadata encodings, that can be used to promote disciplined search access to Internet medical documents. Design: The authors based their approach on a proposed metadata standard, the Dublin Core Metadata Element Set, which has recently been submitted to the Internet Engineering Task Force. Their model also incorporates the National Library of Medicine's Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) vocabulary and Medline-type content descriptions. Results: The model defines a medical core metadata set that can be used to describe the metadata for a wide variety of Internet documents. Conclusions: The authors propose that their medical core metadata set be used to assign metadata to medical documents to facilitate document retrieval by Internet search engines. PMID:10094069

The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shawn St. Germain; Curtis Smith; David Schwieder

This paper presents a description of The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal. The Information Portal was created by the Idaho National Laboratory as part of joint NRC and DOE project to assess the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR analysis code. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal was created to collect, store, retrieve and validate information and data for use in reconstructing the Fukushima Daiichi accident. In addition to supporting the MELCOR simulations, the Portal will be the main DOE repository for all data, studies and reports related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear powermore » station. The data is stored in a secured (password protected and encrypted) repository that is searchable and accessible to researchers at diverse locations.« less

The Computable Catchment: An executable document for model-data software sharing, reproducibility and interactive visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, Y.; Duffy, C.

2015-12-01

This paper proposes the concept of a "Computable Catchment" which is used to develop a collaborative platform for watershed modeling and data analysis. The object of the research is a sharable, executable document similar to a pdf, but one that includes documentation of the underlying theoretical concepts, interactive computational/numerical resources, linkage to essential data repositories and the ability for interactive model-data visualization and analysis. The executable document for each catchment is stored in the cloud with automatic provisioning and a unique identifier allowing collaborative model and data enhancements for historical hydroclimatic reconstruction and/or future landuse or climate change scenarios to be easily reconstructed or extended. The Computable Catchment adopts metadata standards for naming all variables in the model and the data. The a-priori or initial data is derived from national data sources for soils, hydrogeology, climate, and land cover available from the www.hydroterre.psu.edu data service (Leonard and Duffy, 2015). The executable document is based on Wolfram CDF or Computable Document Format with an interactive open-source reader accessible by any modern computing platform. The CDF file and contents can be uploaded to a website or simply shared as a normal document maintaining all interactive features of the model and data. The Computable Catchment concept represents one application for Geoscience Papers of the Future representing an extensible document that combines theory, models, data and analysis that are digitally shared, documented and reused among research collaborators, students, educators and decision makers.

Curve Estimation of Number of People Killed in Traffic Accidents in Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berkhan Akalin, Kadir; Karacasu, Murat; Altin, Arzu Yavuz; Ergül, Bariş

2016-10-01

One or more than one vehicle in motion on the highway involving death, injury and loss events which have resulted are called accidents. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition, also leads to social problems. As a result of increasing population and traffic density, traffic accidents continue to increase and this leads to both human losses and harm to the economy. In addition to this, it also leads to social problems. As a result of traffic accidents, millions of people die year by year. A great majority of these accidents occur in developing countries. One of the most important tasks of transportation engineers is to reduce traffic accidents by creating a specific system. For that reason, statistical information about traffic accidents which occur in the past years should be organized by versed people. Factors affecting the traffic accidents are analyzed in various ways. In this study, modelling the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey is determined. The dead people were modelled using curve fitting method with the number of people killed in traffic accidents in Turkey dataset between 1990 and 2014. It was also predicted the number of dead people by using various models for the future. It is decided that linear model is suitable for the estimates.

The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

PubMed

Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

2012-08-01

The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

Domino effect in chemical accidents: main features and accident sequences.

PubMed

Darbra, R M; Palacios, Adriana; Casal, Joaquim

2010-11-15

The main features of domino accidents in process/storage plants and in the transportation of hazardous materials were studied through an analysis of 225 accidents involving this effect. Data on these accidents, which occurred after 1961, were taken from several sources. Aspects analyzed included the accident scenario, the type of accident, the materials involved, the causes and consequences and the most common accident sequences. The analysis showed that the most frequent causes are external events (31%) and mechanical failure (29%). Storage areas (35%) and process plants (28%) are by far the most common settings for domino accidents. Eighty-nine per cent of the accidents involved flammable materials, the most frequent of which was LPG. The domino effect sequences were analyzed using relative probability event trees. The most frequent sequences were explosion→fire (27.6%), fire→explosion (27.5%) and fire→fire (17.8%). Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Workflow interruptions, cognitive failure and near-accidents in health care.

PubMed

Elfering, Achim; Grebner, Simone; Ebener, Corinne

2015-01-01

Errors are frequent in health care. A specific model was tested that affirms failure in cognitive action regulation to mediate the influence of nurses' workflow interruptions and safety conscientiousness on near-accidents in health care. One hundred and sixty-five nurses from seven Swiss hospitals participated in a questionnaire survey. Structural equation modelling confirmed the hypothesised mediation model. Cognitive failure in action regulation significantly mediated the influence of workflow interruptions on near-accidents (p < .05). An indirect path from conscientiousness to near-accidents via cognitive failure in action regulation was also significant (p < .05). Compliance with safety regulations was significantly related to cognitive failure and near-accidents; moreover, cognitive failure mediated the association between compliance and near-accidents (p < .05). Contrary to expectations, compliance with safety regulations was not related to workflow interruptions. Workflow interruptions caused by colleagues, patients and organisational constraints are likely to trigger errors in nursing. Work redesign is recommended to reduce cognitive failure and improve safety of nurses and patients.

Fact book : a summary of information about towaway accidents involving 1973-1975 model cars. Volume 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1976-09-01

Standardized injury rates and seat belt effectiveness measures are derived from a probability sample of towaway accidents involving 1973-1975 model cars. The data were collected by NHTSA-sponsored teams in five different geographic regions. Weighted ...

Accidents in the school environment: perspectives of staff concerned with data collection and reporting procedures.

PubMed

Williams, W R; Latif, A H; Cater, L

2003-05-01

School-accident reports document incidents that have resulted in children requiring assistance from staff in the education and healthcare sectors. This study was undertaken to investigate the collection and use of data by agencies concerned with the school-accident problem. Our aim was to determine if the annual collection and use of such a large body of data might be improved through better management procedures. Interviews were conducted with primary and secondary school staff in one education authority. Interviewees completed a questionnaire on accident activity and accident reporting in their school. In the healthcare sector, staff from the Schools' Office and the ambulance unit servicing the schools provided information on their collection and use of data. Our survey found that accident activity is usually a private matter for individual schools, shared to varying degrees with the education authority. Playgrounds, children's behaviour and footwear carried much of the blame for the injuries sustained. Staff generally accepted the current accident rates. The compilation of accident data by the Schools' Office, accident and emergency department, and ambulance service were compromised by deficiencies in computerization and computer software. The management and utilization of school-accident data could be improved by better collaboration within and between the education and healthcare agencies.

Probabilistic risk assessment for a loss of coolant accident in McMaster Nuclear Reactor and application of reliability physics model for modeling human reliability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ha, Taesung

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was conducted for a loss of coolant accident, (LOCA) in the McMaster Nuclear Reactor (MNR). A level 1 PRA was completed including event sequence modeling, system modeling, and quantification. To support the quantification of the accident sequence identified, data analysis using the Bayesian method and human reliability analysis (HRA) using the accident sequence evaluation procedure (ASEP) approach were performed. Since human performance in research reactors is significantly different from that in power reactors, a time-oriented HRA model (reliability physics model) was applied for the human error probability (HEP) estimation of the core relocation. This model is based on two competing random variables: phenomenological time and performance time. The response surface and direct Monte Carlo simulation with Latin Hypercube sampling were applied for estimating the phenomenological time, whereas the performance time was obtained from interviews with operators. An appropriate probability distribution for the phenomenological time was assigned by statistical goodness-of-fit tests. The human error probability (HEP) for the core relocation was estimated from these two competing quantities: phenomenological time and operators' performance time. The sensitivity of each probability distribution in human reliability estimation was investigated. In order to quantify the uncertainty in the predicted HEPs, a Bayesian approach was selected due to its capability of incorporating uncertainties in model itself and the parameters in that model. The HEP from the current time-oriented model was compared with that from the ASEP approach. Both results were used to evaluate the sensitivity of alternative huinan reliability modeling for the manual core relocation in the LOCA risk model. This exercise demonstrated the applicability of a reliability physics model supplemented with a. Bayesian approach for modeling human reliability and its potential

Cloud diagnosis impact on deposition modelling applied to the Fukushima accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne

2017-04-01

The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan in March 2011 resulted in the release of several hundred PBq of activity into the environment. Most of the radioactivity was released in a time period of about 40 days. Radioactivity was dispersed in the atmosphere and the ocean and subsequently traces of radionuclides were detected all over Japan. At the Fukushima airport for instance, a deposit as large as 36 kBq/m2 of Cs-137 was measured resulting of an atmospheric deposition of the plume. Both dry and wet deposition were probably involved since a raining event occurred on the 15th of March when the plume was passing nearby. The accident scenario have given rise to a number of scientific investigations. Atmospheric deposition, for example, was studied by utilizing atmospheric transport models. In atmospheric transport models, some parameters, such as cloud diagnosis, are derived from meteorological data. This cloud diagnosis is a key issue for wet deposition modelling since it allows to distinguish between two processes: in-cloud scavenging which corresponds to the collection of radioactive particles into the cloud and below-cloud scavenging consequent to the removal of radioactive material due to the falling drops. Several parametrizations of cloud diagnosis exist in the literature, using different input data: relative humidity, liquid water content, also. All these diagnosis return a large range of cloud base heights and cloud top heights. In this study, computed cloud diagnostics are compared to the observations at the Fukushima airport. Atmospheric dispersion simulations at Japan scale are then performed utilizing the most reliable ones. Impact on results are discussed.

Estimating Traffic Accidents in Turkey Using Differential Evolution Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akgüngör, Ali Payıdar; Korkmaz, Ersin

2017-06-01

Estimating traffic accidents play a vital role to apply road safety procedures. This study proposes Differential Evolution Algorithm (DEA) models to estimate the number of accidents in Turkey. In the model development, population (P) and the number of vehicles (N) are selected as model parameters. Three model forms, linear, exponential and semi-quadratic models, are developed using DEA with the data covering from 2000 to 2014. Developed models are statistically compared to select the best fit model. The results of the DE models show that the linear model form is suitable to estimate the number of accidents. The statistics of this form is better than other forms in terms of performance criteria which are the Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) and the Root Mean Square Errors (RMSE). To investigate the performance of linear DE model for future estimations, a ten-year period from 2015 to 2024 is considered. The results obtained from future estimations reveal the suitability of DE method for road safety applications.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

PubMed

Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

[Accident cause masculinity?--Gender-related issues of accident victims between prevention and coping in Kaiserreich and Weimarer Republik].

PubMed

Knoll-Jung, Sebastian

2015-01-01

Occupational accidents in industrial workplaces are a specific health problem for man. Therefore it seems adequate to use masculinities as a category of research in this field. For the Kaiserreich and the Weimarer Republik it shows that male workers relating to their danger awareness and behavior, prevention, accident causes and coping strategies are settled in an area of conflict between a hard workplace environment and the family. On the basis of health practices of the accident victims it appears that there are different forms of labor masculinities. They have an important influence on all levels of an occupational accident from the endangerment to the success of the treatment. Through a critical use of the category academic void can be shown and alternative explanatory models can be offered.

Documenting Climate Models and Simulations: the ES-DOC Ecosystem in Support of CMIP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, C. L.; Guilyardi, E.

2017-12-01

The results of climate models are of increasing and widespread importance. No longer is climate model output of sole interest to climate scientists and researchers in the climate change impacts and adaptation fields. Now non-specialists such as government officials, policy-makers, and the general public, all have an increasing need to access climate model output and understand its implications. For this host of users, accurate and complete metadata (i.e., information about how and why the data were produced) is required to document the climate modeling results. Here we describe the ES-DOC community-govern project to collect and make available documentation of climate models and their simulations for the internationally coordinated modeling activity CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6). An overview of the underlying standards, key properties and features, the evolution from CMIP5, the underlying tools and workflows as well as what modelling groups should expect and how they should engage with the documentation of their contribution to CMIP6 is also presented.

Accident investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Laynor, William G. Bud

1987-01-01

The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) has attributed wind shear as a cause or contributing factor in 15 accidents involving transport-categroy airplanes since 1970. Nine of these were nonfatal; but the other six accounted for 440 lives. Five of the fatal accidents and seven of the nonfatal accidents involved encounters with convective downbursts or microbursts. Of other accidents, two which were nonfatal were encounters with a frontal system shear, and one which was fatal was the result of a terrain induced wind shear. These accidents are discussed with reference to helping the aircraft to avoid the wind shear or if impossible to help the pilot to get through the wind shear.

The legacy of war: an epidemiological study of cluster weapon and land mine accidents in Quang Tri Province, Vietnam.

PubMed

Phung, Tran Kim; Le, Viet; Husum, Hans

2012-07-01

The study examines the epidemiology of cluster weapon and land mine accidents in Quang Tri Province since the end of the Vietnam War. The province is located just south of the demarcation line and was the province most affected during the war. In 2009, a cross sectional household study was conducted in all nine districts of the province. During the study period of 1975-2009, 7,030 persons in the study area were exposed to unexploded ordnances (UXO) or land mine accidents, or 1.1% of the provincial population. There were 2,620 fatalities and 4,410 accident survivors. The study documents that the main problem is cluster weapons and other unexploded ordnances; only 4.3% of casualties were caused by land mines. The legacy of the war affects poor people the most; the accident rate was highest among villagers living in mountainous areas, ethnic minorities, and low-income families. The most common activities leading to the accidents were farming (38.6%), collecting scrap metal (11.2%), and herding of cattle (8.3%). The study documents that the people of the Quang Tri Province until this day have suffered heavily due to the legacy of war. Mine risk education programs should account for the epidemiological findings when future accident prevention programs are designed to target high-risk areas and activities.

Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

PubMed

Benamrane, Y; Wybo, J-L; Armand, P

2013-12-01

The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integration of Laser Scanning and Three-dimensional Models in the Legal Process Following an Industrial Accident.

PubMed

Eyre, Matthew; Foster, Patrick; Speake, Georgina; Coggan, John

2017-09-01

In order to obtain a deeper understanding of an incident, it needs to be investigated to "peel back the layers" and examine both immediate and underlying failures that contributed to the event itself. One of the key elements of an effective accident investigation is recording the scene for future reference. In recent years, however, there have been major advances in survey technology, which have provided the ability to capture scenes in three dimension to an unprecedented level of detail, using laser scanners. A case study involving a fatal incident was surveyed using three-dimensional laser scanning, and subsequently recreated through virtual and physical models. The created models were then utilized in both accident investigation and legal process, to explore the technologies used in this setting. Benefits include explanation of the event and environment, incident reconstruction, preservation of evidence, reducing the need for site visits, and testing of theories. Drawbacks include limited technology within courtrooms, confusion caused by models, cost, and personal interpretation and acceptance in the data. Laser scanning surveys can be of considerable use in jury trials, for example, in case the location supports the use of a high-definition survey, or an object has to be altered after the accident and it has a specific influence on the case and needs to be recorded. However, consideration has to be made in its application and to ensure a fair trial, with emphasis being placed on the facts of the case and personal interpretation controlled.

What can the drivers' own description from combined sources provide in an analysis of driver distraction and low vigilance in accident situations?

PubMed

Tivesten, Emma; Wiberg, Henrik

2013-03-01

Accident data play an important role in vehicle safety development. Accident data sources are generally limited in terms of how much information is provided on driver states and behaviour prior to an accident. However, the precise limitations vary between databases, due to differences in analysis focus and data collection procedures between organisations. If information about a specific accident can be retrieved from more than one data source it should be possible to combine the available information sets to facilitate data from one source to compensate for limitations in the other(s). To investigate the viability of such compensation, this study identified a set of accidents recorded in two different data sources. The first data source investigated was an accident mail survey and the second data source insurance claims documents consisting predominantly of insurance claims completed by the involved road users. An analysis of survey variables was compared to a case analysis including word data derived from the same survey and filed insurance claims documents. For each accident, the added value of having access to more than one source of information was assessed. To limit the scope of this study, three particular topics were investigated: available information on low vigilance (e.g., being drowsy, ill); secondary task distraction (e.g., talking with passengers, mobile phone use); and distraction related to the driving task (e.g., looking for approaching vehicles). Results suggest that for low vigilance and secondary task distraction, a combination of the mail survey and insurance claims documents provide more reliable and detailed pre-crash information than survey variables alone. However, driving related distraction appears to be more difficult to capture. In order to gain a better understanding of the above issues and how frequently they occur in accidents, the data sources and analysis methods suggested here may be combined with other investigation methods such

GRC Payload Hazard Assessment: Supporting the STS-107 Accident Investigation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schoren, William R.; Zampino, Edward J.

2004-01-01

A hazard assessment was conducted on the GRC managed payloads in support of a NASA Headquarters Code Q request to examine STS-107 payloads and determine if they were credible contributors to the Columbia accident. This assessment utilized each payload's Final Flight Safety Data Package for hazard identification. An applicability assessment was performed and most of the hazards were eliminated because they dealt with payload operations or crew interactions. A Fault Tree was developed for all the hazards deemed applicable and the safety verification documentation was reviewed for these applicable hazards. At the completion of this hazard assessment, it was concluded that none of the GRC managed payloads were credible contributors to the Columbia accident.

Traffic dynamics around weaving section influenced by accident: Cellular automata approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kong, Lin-Peng; Li, Xin-Gang; Lam, William H. K.

2015-07-01

The weaving section, as a typical bottleneck, is one source of vehicle conflicts and an accident-prone area. Traffic accident will block lanes and the road capacity will be reduced. Several models have been established to study the dynamics around traffic bottlenecks. However, little attention has been paid to study the complex traffic dynamics influenced by the combined effects of bottleneck and accident. This paper presents a cellular automaton model to characterize accident-induced traffic behavior around the weaving section. Some effective control measures are proposed and verified for traffic management under accident condition. The total flux as a function of inflow rates, the phase diagrams, the spatial-temporal diagrams, and the density and velocity profiles are presented to analyze the impact of accident. It was shown that the proposed control measures for weaving traffic can improve the capacity of weaving section under both normal and accident conditions; the accidents occurring on median lane in the weaving section are more inclined to cause traffic jam and reduce road capacity; the capacity of weaving section will be greatly reduced when the accident happens downstream the weaving section.

Elderly patients discharged from an accident and emergency department--their dependency and support.

PubMed Central

Currie, C T; Lawson, P M; Robertson, C E; Jones, A

1984-01-01

One hundred elderly patients who had attended an accident and emergency department and had been discharged were visited at home shortly afterwards. Compared to their previous level of function, 52 showed a minor or major increase in dependency, usually related to trauma. Scrutiny of accident and emergency records showed only scanty documentation of dependency, function and support arrangements. Available statutory services for dependent elderly in the community were under-utilized by these patients. In 39 of the 52 cases with increased dependency relatives had provided additional support. PMID:6100354

Overview of lower length scale model development for accident tolerant fuels regarding U3Si2 fuel and FeCrAl cladding

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zhang, Yongfeng

2016-09-01

U3Si2 and FeCrAl have been proposed as fuel and cladding concepts, respectively, for accident tolerance fuels with higher tolerance to accident scenarios compared to UO2. However, a lot of key physics and material properties regarding their in-pile performance are yet to be explored. To accelerate the understanding and reduce the cost of experimental studies, multiscale modeling and simulation are used to develop physics-based materials models to assist engineering scale fuel performance modeling. In this report, the lower-length-scale efforts in method and material model development supported by the Accident Tolerance Fuel (ATF) high-impact-problem (HIP) under the NEAMS program are summarized. Significantmore » progresses have been made regarding interatomic potential, phase field models for phase decomposition and gas bubble formation, and thermal conductivity for U3Si2 fuel, and precipitation in FeCrAl cladding. The accomplishments are very useful by providing atomistic and mesoscale tools, improving the current understanding, and delivering engineering scale models for these two ATF concepts.« less

An Analysis of U.S. Civil Rotorcraft Accidents by Cost and Injury (1990-1996)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Iseler, Laura; DeMaio, Joe; Rutkowski, Michael (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A study of rotorcraft accidents was conducted to identify safety issues and research areas that might lead to a reduction in rotorcraft accidents and fatalities. The primary source of data was summaries of National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) accident reports. From 1990 to 1996, the NTSB documented 1396 civil rotorcraft accidents in the United States in which 491 people were killed. The rotorcraft data were compared to airline and general aviation data to determine the relative safety of rotorcraft compared to other segments of the aviation industry. In depth analysis of the rotorcraft data addressed demographics, mission, and operational factors. Rotorcraft were found to have an accident rate about ten times that of commercial airliners and about the same as that of general aviation. The likelihood that an accident would be fatal was about equal for all three classes of operation. The most dramatic division in rotorcraft accidents is between flights flown by private pilots versus professional pilots. Private pilots, flying low cost aircraft in benign environments, have accidents that are due, in large part, to their own errors. Professional pilots, in contrast, are more likely to have accidents that are a result of exacting missions or use of specialized equipment. For both groups judgement error is more likely to lead to a fatal accident than are other types of causes. Several approaches to improving the rotorcraft accident rate are recommended. These mostly address improvement in the training of new pilots and improving the safety awareness of private pilots.

[Occupational accidents in Barcelona (Spain), from 1992 to 1993].

PubMed

Sampaio, R F; Martin, M; Artazcoz, L; Moncada, S

1998-08-01

The statistics related to labor accidents as with any other notification system ought to be the basis for programs and policies with a view to the adoption of preventive measures. In order to establish preventive norms, however, the health system needs data from researchers focussing on the dynamics of and the pitfalls revealed by specific events. Within this context the main objective of this study is to proceed with an in-depth analysis of the labor accidents verified in Barcelona (Spain) using for this purpose a descriptive statistics model to test variables such as type of accident, economic sector, economic enterprise and type of labor contract. The data source utilized was the notification system for labor accidents with grave consequences such as death of the victim registered in Barcelona during the period 1992-1993. Labor accidents registered for male workers numbered 848. A log-linear model was applied to this data base. The results show a positive association between traumatic accidents with the construction, traffic and services sectors. A positive association was also found between traumatic accidents and the size of the company concerved the small ones being the worse type in terms of worker's injuries. Regarding the nontraumatic accidents, the study showed a positive correlation between large-sized enterprises and type of temporary worker and the civil construction sector as compared to workers with long term work contracts within industry and services. There was some evidence, also, of a positive association between small and medium sized companies and temporary work and the occurrence of work accidents.

A Comprehensive Analysis of the X-15 Flight 3-65 Accident

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dennehy, Cornelius J.; Orr, Jeb S.; Barshi, Immanuel; Statler, Irving C.

2014-01-01

The November 15, 1967, loss of X-15 Flight 3-65-97 (hereafter referred to as Flight 3-65) was a unique incident in that it was the first and only aerospace flight accident involving loss of crew on a vehicle with an adaptive flight control system (AFCS). In addition, Flight 3-65 remains the only incidence of a single-pilot departure from controlled flight of a manned entry vehicle in a hypersonic flight regime. To mitigate risk to emerging aerospace systems, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) proposed a comprehensive review of this accident. The goal of the assessment was to resolve lingering questions regarding the failure modes of the aircraft systems (including the AFCS) and thoroughly analyze the interactions among the human agents and autonomous systems that contributed to the loss of the pilot and aircraft. This document contains the outcome of the accident review.

Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Accident Tolerant Fuels High Impact Problem: Coordinate Multiscale U 3Si 2 Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gamble, K. A.; Hales, J. D.; Miao, Y.

Since the events at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in March 2011 significant research has unfolded at national laboratories, universities and other institutions into alternative materials that have potential enhanced accident tolerance when compared to traditional \\uo~fuel zircaloy clad fuel rods. One of the potential replacement fuels is uranium silicide (\\usi) for its higher thermal conductivity and uranium density. The lower melting temperature is of potential concern during postulated accident conditions. Another disadvantage for \\usi~ is the lack of experimental data under power reactor conditions. Due to the aggressive development schedule for inserting some of the potential materials into leadmore » test assemblies or rods by 2022~\\cite{bragg-sitton_2014} multiscale multiphysics modeling approaches have been used to provide insight into these materials. \\\\ \

Insights Gained from Forensic Analysis with MELCOR of the Fukushima-Daiichi Accidents.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Nathan C.; Gauntt, Randall O.

Since the accidents at Fukushima-Daiichi, Sandia National Laboratories has been modeling these accident scenarios using the severe accident analysis code, MELCOR. MELCOR is a widely used computer code developed at Sandia National Laboratories since ~1982 for the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Insights from the modeling of these accidents is being used to better inform future code development and potentially improved accident management. To date, our necessity to better capture in-vessel thermal-hydraulic and ex-vessel melt coolability and concrete interactions has led to the implementation of new models. The most recent analyses, presented in this paper, have been in support of themore » of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency’s (OECD/NEA) Benchmark Study of the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (BSAF) Project. The goal of this project is to accurately capture the source term from all three releases and then model the atmospheric dispersion. In order to do this, a forensic approach is being used in which available plant data and release timings is being used to inform the modeled MELCOR accident scenario. For example, containment failures, core slumping events and lower head failure timings are all enforced parameters in these analyses. This approach is fundamentally different from a blind code assessment analysis often used in standard problem exercises. The timings of these events are informed by representative spikes or decreases in plant data. The combination of improvements to the MELCOR source code resulting from analysis previous accident analysis and this forensic approach has allowed Sandia to generate representative and plausible source terms for all three accidents at Fukushima Daiichi out to three weeks after the accident to capture both early and late releases. In particular, using the source terms developed by MELCOR, the MACCS software code, which models atmospheric dispersion

Modeling traffic accidents at signalized intersections in the city of Norfolk, VA.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2010-12-31

This study was an attempt to apply a proactive approach using traffic pattern and signalized intersection characteristics to predict accident rates at signalized intersections in a citys arterial network. An earlier analysis of accident data at se...

Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

2006-01-01

System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

Alcohol violations and aviation accidents: findings from the U.S. mandatory alcohol testing program.

PubMed

Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P; Qiang, Yandong; Rebok, George W; McCarthy, Melissa L

2007-05-01

Mandatory alcohol testing has been implemented in the U.S. aviation industry since 1995. This study documents the prevalence of alcohol violations and the association between alcohol violations and aviation accidents among aviation employees with safety-sensitive functions. Data from the random alcohol testing and post-accident alcohol testing programs reported by major airlines to the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995 through 2002 were analyzed. A violation was defined as an alcohol level of > or = 0.04% or a refusal to submit to testing. Relative and attributable risks of accident involvement associated with alcohol violations were estimated using the case-control method. During the study period, random alcohol testing yielded a total of 440 violations, with an overall prevalence rate of 0.09% and a prevalence rate of 0.03% for flight crews. Alcohol violations were associated with an increased yet not statistically significant risk of accident involvement (odds ratio 2.56, 95% confidence interval 0.81-7.08) and were attributed to 0.13% of aviation accidents. Alcohol violations among U.S. major airline employees with safety-sensitive functions are rare and play a negligible role in aviation accidents.

Alcohol Violations and Aviation Accidents: Findings from the U.S. Mandatory Alcohol Testing Program

PubMed Central

Li, Guohua; Baker, Susan P.; Qiang, Yandong; Rebok, George W.; McCarthy, Melissa L.

2007-01-01

Introduction: Mandatory alcohol testing has been implemented in the U.S. aviation industry since 1995. This study documents the prevalence of alcohol violations and the association between alcohol violations and aviation accidents among aviation employees with safety-sensitive functions. Methods: Data from the random alcohol testing and post-accident alcohol testing programs reported by major airlines to the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995 through 2002 were analyzed. A violation was defined as an alcohol level of ≥ 0.04% or a refusal to submit to testing. Relative and attributable risks of accident involvement associated with alcohol violations were estimated using the case-control method. Results: During the study period, random alcohol testing yielded a total of 440 violations, with an overall prevalence rate of 0.09% and a prevalence rate of 0.03% for flight crews. Alcohol violations were associated with an increased yet not statistically significant risk of accident involvement (odds ratio 2.56, 95% confidence interval 0.81–7.08) and were attributed to 0.13% of aviation accidents. Discussion: Alcohol violations among U.S. major airline employees with safety-sensitive functions are rare and play a negligible role in aviation accidents. PMID:17539446

Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

PubMed

Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

2016-07-01

Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error." Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factors for accident death in the U.S. Army, 2004-2009.

PubMed

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Heeringa, Steven G

2014-12-01

Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active-duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004-2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers and increased for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate not-line-of-duty from line-of-duty accident deaths. Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. All rights reserved.

Use of Image Based Modelling for Documentation of Intricately Shaped Objects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marčiš, M.; Barták, P.; Valaška, D.; Fraštia, M.; Trhan, O.

2016-06-01

In the documentation of cultural heritage, we can encounter three dimensional shapes and structures which are complicated to measure. Such objects are for example spiral staircases, timber roof trusses, historical furniture or folk costume where it is nearly impossible to effectively use the traditional surveying or the terrestrial laser scanning due to the shape of the object, its dimensions and the crowded environment. The actual methods of digital photogrammetry can be very helpful in such cases with the emphasis on the automated processing of the extensive image data. The created high resolution 3D models and 2D orthophotos are very important for the documentation of architectural elements and they can serve as an ideal base for the vectorization and 2D drawing documentation. This contribution wants to describe the various usage of image based modelling in specific interior spaces and specific objects. The advantages and disadvantages of the photogrammetric measurement of such objects in comparison to other surveying methods are reviewed.

DEVA: An extensible ontology-based annotation model for visual document collections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jelmini, Carlo; Marchand-Maillet, Stephane

2003-01-01

The description of visual documents is a fundamental aspect of any efficient information management system, but the process of manually annotating large collections of documents is tedious and far from being perfect. The need for a generic and extensible annotation model therefore arises. In this paper, we present DEVA, an open, generic and expressive multimedia annotation framework. DEVA is an extension of the Dublin Core specification. The model can represent the semantic content of any visual document. It is described in the ontology language DAML+OIL and can easily be extended with external specialized ontologies, adapting the vocabulary to the given application domain. In parallel, we present the Magritte annotation tool, which is an early prototype that validates the DEVA features. Magritte allows to manually annotating image collections. It is designed with a modular and extensible architecture, which enables the user to dynamically adapt the user interface to specialized ontologies merged into DEVA.

Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000–2011

PubMed Central

Karimlou, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

2015-01-01

Background Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. Objectives To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. Methods In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box–Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. Results There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). Conclusions The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection. PMID:26119774

Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

PubMed

Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

2016-01-01

To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of typical WWER-1000 severe accident scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sorokin, Yu.S.; Shchekoldin, V.V.; Borisov, L.N.

2004-07-01

At present in EDO 'Gidropress' there is a certain experience of performing the analyses of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER with application of domestic and foreign codes. Important data were also obtained by the results of calculation modeling of integrated experiments with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel. Systematization and consideration of these data in development and assimilation of codes are extremely important in connection with large uncertainty still existing in understanding and adequate description of phenomenology of severe accidents. The presented report gives a comparison of analysis results of severe accidents of reactor plant with WWER-1000more » for two typical scenarios made by using American MELCOR code and the Russian RATEG/SVECHA/HEFEST code. The results of calculation modeling are compared using above codes with the data of experiment FPT1 with fuel assembly melting comprising a real fuel, which has been carried out at the facility Phebus (France). The obtained results are considered in the report from the viewpoint of: - adequacy of results of calculation modeling of separate phenomena during severe accidents of RP with WWER by using the above codes; - influence of uncertainties (degree of details of calculation models, choice of parameters of models etc.); - choice of those or other setup variables (options) in the used codes; - necessity of detailed modeling of processes and phenomena as applied to design justification of safety of RP with WWER. (authors)« less

Systematic strategies for the third industrial accident prevention plan in Korea.

PubMed

Kang, Young-sig; Yang, Sung-hwan; Kim, Tae-gu; Kim, Day-sung

2012-01-01

To minimize industrial accidents, it's critical to evaluate a firm's priorities for prevention factors and strategies since such evaluation provides decisive information for preventing industrial accidents and maintaining safety management. Therefore, this paper proposes the evaluation of priorities through statistical testing of prevention factors with a cause analysis in a cause and effect model. A priority matrix criterion is proposed to apply the ranking and for the objectivity of questionnaire results. This paper used regression method (RA), exponential smoothing method (ESM), double exponential smoothing method (DESM), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model and proposed analytical function method (PAFM) to analyze trends of accident data that will lead to an accurate prediction. This paper standardized the questionnaire results of workers and managers in manufacturing and construction companies with less than 300 employees, located in the central Korean metropolitan areas where fatal accidents have occurred. Finally, a strategy was provided to construct safety management for the third industrial accident prevention plan and a forecasting method for occupational accident rates and fatality rates for occupational accidents per 10,000 people.

Fall-related accidents among hikers in the Austrian Alps: a 9-year retrospective study

PubMed Central

Faulhaber, Martin; Pocecco, Elena; Ruedl, Gerhard; Walter, Dagmar; Sterr, Regina; Ebner, Hans; Schobersberger, Wolfgang; Burtscher, Martin

2017-01-01

Objective To analyse the circumstances of fatal and non-fatal mountain hiking accidents caused by falls. Methods The study was designed as a retrospective analysis. Mountain hiking accidents caused by falls were documented during a 9-year period (2006–2014). After screening of all data for potential exclusion criteria the final sample size of 5368 accidents and 5665 victims was included into the analyses. Main outcome measures were details about accidents, victims, type of trail and surface. Results The annual number of accidents showed a continuous increase from 467 in 2006 to 700 in 2014. In total, 5.8% of all victims died during the 9-year period. 75.3% of the hikers fell during descent and 80.9% of the victims had their accident on a marked hiking trail or small path. The sex ratio for non-fatal accidents was 55% female and 45% male; for fatal accidents the female-to-male ratio was 28%:72%. Mean age of all victims was 52.5±17.5 years and victims of fatalities were about 5 years older compared with victims of non-fatal accidents (57.5±16.5 vs 52.2±17.5 years, P<0.01). Conclusion Descent is the most risky part for accidents caused by falls during mountain hiking. Male hikers are at greater risk for fatalities independent of age and this is associated with accidents occurring in pathless terrain. The death rate from falls was 6%. We recommend a critical self-assessment of the individual capabilities and mountain hiking skills and adequate planning of the hiking tours for mountain hikers. PMID:29259815

Radionuclides from the Fukushima accident in the air over Lithuania: measurement and modelling approaches.

PubMed

Lujanienė, G; Byčenkienė, S; Povinec, P P; Gera, M

2012-12-01

Analyses of (131)I, (137)Cs and (134)Cs in airborne aerosols were carried out in daily samples in Vilnius, Lithuania after the Fukushima accident during the period of March-April, 2011. The activity concentrations of (131)I and (137)Cs ranged from 12 μBq/m(3) and 1.4 μBq/m(3) to 3700 μBq/m(3) and 1040 μBq/m(3), respectively. The activity concentration of (239,240)Pu in one aerosol sample collected from 23 March to 15 April, 2011 was found to be 44.5 nBq/m(3). The two maxima found in radionuclide concentrations were related to complicated long-range air mass transport from Japan across the Pacific, the North America and the Atlantic Ocean to Central Europe as indicated by modelling. HYSPLIT backward trajectories and meteorological data were applied for interpretation of activity variations of measured radionuclides observed at the site of investigation. (7)Be and (212)Pb activity concentrations and their ratios were used as tracers of vertical transport of air masses. Fukushima data were compared with the data obtained during the Chernobyl accident and in the post Chernobyl period. The activity concentrations of (131)I and (137)Cs were found to be by 4 orders of magnitude lower as compared to the Chernobyl accident. The activity ratio of (134)Cs/(137)Cs was around 1 with small variations only. The activity ratio of (238)Pu/(239,240)Pu in the aerosol sample was 1.2, indicating a presence of the spent fuel of different origin than that of the Chernobyl accident. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analyzing the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn.

PubMed

Manner, Hans; Wünsch-Ziegler, Laura

2013-08-01

We study the severity of accidents on the German Autobahn in the state of North Rhine-Westphalia using data for the years 2009 until 2011. We use a multinomial logit model to identify statistically relevant factors explaining the severity of the most severe injury, which is classified into the four classes fatal, severe injury, light injury and property damage. Furthermore, to account for unobserved heterogeneity we use a random parameter model. We study the effect of a number of factors including traffic information, road conditions, type of accidents, speed limits, presence of intelligent traffic control systems, age and gender of the driver and location of the accident. Our findings are in line with studies in different settings and indicate that accidents during daylight and at interchanges or construction sites are less severe in general. Accidents caused by the collision with roadside objects, involving pedestrians and motorcycles, or caused by bad sight conditions tend to be more severe. We discuss the measures of the 2011 German traffic safety programm in the light of our results. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PNNL Results from 2010 CALIBAN Criticality Accident Dosimeter Intercomparison Exercise

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hill, Robin L.; Conrady, Matthew M.

2011-10-28

This document reports the results of the Hanford personnel nuclear accident dosimeter (PNAD) and fixed nuclear accident dosimeter (FNAD) during a criticality accident dosimeter intercomparison exercise at the CEA Valduc Center on September 20-23, 2010. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) participated in a criticality accident dosimeter intercomparison exercise at the Commissariat a Energie Atomique (CEA) Valduc Center near Dijon, France on September 20-23, 2010. The intercomparison exercise was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy, Nuclear Criticality Safety Program, with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory as the lead Laboratory. PNNL was one of six invited DOE Laboratory participants. The other participatingmore » Laboratories were: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Savannah River Site (SRS), the Y-12 National Security Complex at Oak Ridge, and Sandia National Laboratory (SNL). The goals of PNNL's participation in the intercomparison exercise were to test and validate the procedures and algorithm currently used for the Hanford personnel nuclear accident dosimeters (PNADs) on the metallic reactor, CALIBAN, to test exposures to PNADs from the side and from behind a phantom, and to test PNADs that were taken from a historical batch of Hanford PNADs that had varying degrees of degradation of the bare indium foil. Similar testing of the PNADs was done on the Valduc SILENE test reactor in 2009 (Hill and Conrady, 2010). The CALIBAN results are reported here.« less

Comparing the Hematopoetic Syndrome Time Course in the NHP Animal Model to Radiation Accident Cases From the Database Search.

PubMed

Graessle, Dieter H; Dörr, Harald; Bennett, Alexander; Shapiro, Alla; Farese, Ann M; MacVittie, Thomas J; Meineke, Viktor

2015-11-01

Since controlled clinical studies on drug administration for the acute radiation syndrome are lacking, clinical data of human radiation accident victims as well as experimental animal models are the main sources of information. This leads to the question of how to compare and link clinical observations collected after human radiation accidents with experimental observations in non-human primate (NHP) models. Using the example of granulocyte counts in the peripheral blood following radiation exposure, approaches for adaptation between NHP and patient databases on data comparison and transformation are introduced. As a substitute for studying the effects of administration of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) in human clinical trials, the method of mathematical modeling is suggested using the example of G-CSF administration to NHP after total body irradiation.

Dynamic reduction of dimensions of a document vector in a document search and retrieval system

DOEpatents

Jiao, Yu; Potok, Thomas E.

2011-05-03

The method and system of the invention involves processing each new document (20) coming into the system into a document vector (16), and creating a document vector with reduced dimensionality (17) for comparison with the data model (15) without recomputing the data model (15). These operations are carried out by a first computer (11) while a second computer (12) updates the data model (18), which can be comprised of an initial large group of documents (19) and is premised on the computing an initial data model (13, 14, 15) to provide a reference point for determining document vectors from documents processed from the data stream (20).

A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

2016-06-05

In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier B.V.

[Cases of poisoning in Germany. Disease entity, documentation, and aspects of the event].

PubMed

Hahn, A; Begemann, K; Stürer, A

2014-06-01

Cases of poisoning account for a distinct share of accidents in Germany, which is particularly high for accidents involving children. Cases of poisoning resulting from suicidal intent or abuse are not counted as accidents. Compared to other cases of disease and accidents, the numerical documentation of cases of poisoning is inadequate. Presently, there is no institution in Germany that could make available representative and meaningful data on the current state of poisoning. Owing to intensive scientific cooperation between the poison information centers (funded by the federal states) and the Poison and Product Documentation Center at the Federal Institute for Risk Assessment (BfR DocCenter) as well as to international cooperation, harmonized and standardized tools have been developed for the appropriate documentation and reporting of procedures to account for poisoning accidents. The first evaluation for 2005-2012 based on published and processed figures for the Federal Republic of Germany yielded the following results: Of approximately 230,000 telephone inquiries received in 2012, about 207,000 involved exposure of humans to different noxae. An annual increase of 3-5 % was recorded. For 2011, analyses of subsets processed by means of standardized methods yielded the following results: Medicines were involved in about 39 % of the cases recorded (of these, medicinal products for humans in 99 %); chemical/physicochemical agents in about 26 % (of these, cleaning and maintenance products in 46 %); products of daily use in about 14 % (of these, cosmetics in 40 %); and plants in about 10 %. More than 90 % of cases were acute poisoning and less than 5 %, chronic poisoning. Regarding the degree of severity of poisoning, an asymptomatic course was reported for 44 % of the cases; minor manifestations were experienced in 30 %, moderate ones in 6 %, and severe manifestations in 2 % of the cases recorded. Fatal cases were rare (< 0.1 %). The

Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident: experiences of the Fukushima accident.

PubMed

Homma, T; Takahara, S; Kimura, M; Kinase, S

2015-06-01

Radiation protection issues on preparedness and response for a severe nuclear accident are discussed in this paper based on the experiences following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. The criteria for use in nuclear emergencies in the Japanese emergency preparedness guide were based on the recommendations of International Commission of Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publications 60 and 63. Although the decision-making process for implementing protective actions relied heavily on computer-based predictive models prior to the accident, urgent protective actions, such as evacuation and sheltering, were implemented effectively based on the plant conditions. As there were no recommendations and criteria for long-term protective actions in the emergency preparedness guide, the recommendations of ICRP Publications 103, 109, and 111 were taken into consideration in determining the temporary relocation of inhabitants of heavily contaminated areas. These recommendations were very useful in deciding the emergency protective actions to take in the early stages of the Fukushima accident. However, some suggestions have been made for improving emergency preparedness and response in the early stages of a severe nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

Accident Case Study of Organizational Silence Communication Breakdown: Shuttle Columbia, Mission STS-107

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rocha, Rodney

2011-01-01

This report has been developed by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ESMD Risk and Knowledge Management team. This document provides a point-in-time, cumulative, summary of key lessons learned derived from the official Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB). Lessons learned invariably address challenges and risks and the way in which these areas have been addressed. Accordingly the risk management thread is woven throughout the document. This report is accompanied by a video that will be sent at request

Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

CRAC2 model description

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ritchie, L.T.; Alpert, D.J.; Burke, R.P.

1984-03-01

The CRAC2 computer code is a revised version of CRAC (Calculation of Reactor Accident Consequences) which was developed for the Reactor Safety Study. This document provides an overview of the CRAC2 code and a description of each of the models used. Significant improvements incorporated into CRAC2 include an improved weather sequence sampling technique, a new evacuation model, and new output capabilities. In addition, refinements have been made to the atmospheric transport and deposition model. Details of the modeling differences between CRAC2 and CRAC are emphasized in the model descriptions.

[Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident and Tokaimura criticality accident].

PubMed

Takada, Jun

2012-03-01

It is clear from inspection of historical incidents that the scale of disasters in a nuclear power plant accident is quite low level overwhelmingly compared with a nuclear explosion in nuclear war. Two cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki were destroyed by nuclear blast with about 20 kt TNT equivalent and then approximately 100,000 people have died respectively. On the other hand, the number of acute death is 30 in the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident. In this chapter, we review health hazards and doses in two historical nuclear incidents of Chernobyl and Tokaimura criticality accident and then understand the feature of the radiation accident in peaceful utilization of nuclear power.

A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertch, Timothy Creston

1998-12-01

Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release

Econ's optimal decision model of wheat production and distribution-documentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1977-01-01

The report documents the computer programs written to implement the ECON optical decision model. The programs were written in APL, an extremely compact and powerful language particularly well suited to this model, which makes extensive use of matrix manipulations. The algorithms used are presented and listings of and descriptive information on the APL programs used are given. Possible changes in input data are also given.

Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

PubMed Central

Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

2014-01-01

Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume II, Appendices

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-08-01

Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

World commercial aircraft accidents: 1st edition, 1946--1991

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimura, C.Y.

1992-02-01

This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. This report is organized into six chapters. The first chapter is the introduction. The second chapter contains the compilation of accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft from 1952 to 1991. The third chapter presents a compilation ofmore » accidents involving world commercial turboprop aircraft from 1952 to 1991. The fourth chapter presents a compilation of accidents involving world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines from 1946 to 1991. Each accident compilation or database in chapters two, three and four is presented in chronological order. Each accident is presented with information the following categories: date of accident, airline or operator and its flight number (if known), type of flight, type of aircraft and model, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage resulting from accident, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, references used to compile the information, and finally cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident. The fifth chapter presents a list of all commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities. Chapter six presents the commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types by flight phase. Future editions of this report will have additional follow-on chapters which will present other studies still in preparation at the time this edition was being prepared.« less

World commercial aircraft accidents

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kimura, C.Y.

1993-01-01

This report is a compilation of all accidents world-wide involving aircraft in commercial service which resulted in the loss of the airframe or one or more fatality, or both. This information has been gathered in order to present a complete inventory of commercial aircraft accidents. Events involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, hijackings, suicides, and industrial ground accidents are included within this list. Included are: accidents involving world commercial jet aircraft, world commercial turboprop aircraft, world commercial pistonprop aircraft with four or more engines and world commercial pistonprop aircraft with two or three engines from 1946 to 1992. Each accidentmore » is presented with information in the following categories: date of the accident, airline and its flight numbers, type of flight, type of aircraft, aircraft registration number, construction number/manufacturers serial number, aircraft damage, accident flight phase, accident location, number of fatalities, number of occupants, cause, remarks, or description (brief) of the accident, and finally references used. The sixth chapter presents a summary of the world commercial aircraft accidents by major aircraft class (e.g. jet, turboprop, and pistonprop) and by flight phase. The seventh chapter presents several special studies including a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types with 100 or more fatalities in order of decreasing number of fatalities, a list of collision accidents involving commercial aircrafts, and a list of world commercial aircraft accidents for all aircraft types involving military action, sabotage, terrorist bombings, and hijackings.« less

A model for indexing medical documents combining statistical and symbolic knowledge.

PubMed

Avillach, Paul; Joubert, Michel; Fieschi, Marius

2007-10-11

To develop and evaluate an information processing method based on terminologies, in order to index medical documents in any given documentary context. We designed a model using both symbolic general knowledge extracted from the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) and statistical knowledge extracted from a domain of application. Using statistical knowledge allowed us to contextualize the general knowledge for every particular situation. For each document studied, the extracted terms are ranked to highlight the most significant ones. The model was tested on a set of 17,079 French standardized discharge summaries (SDSs). The most important ICD-10 term of each SDS was ranked 1st or 2nd by the method in nearly 90% of the cases. The use of several terminologies leads to more precise indexing. The improvement achieved in the models implementation performances as a result of using semantic relationships is encouraging.

Study on the Accident-causing of Foundation Pit Engineering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shuicheng, Tian; Xinyue, Zhang; Pengfei, Yang; Longgang, Chen

2018-05-01

With the development of high-rise buildings and underground space, a large number of foundation pit projects have occurred. Frequent accidents of it cause great losses to the society, how to reduce the frequency of pit accidents has become one of the most urgent problems to be solved. Therefore, analysing the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents and studying the causes of foundation pit accidents, which of great significance for improving the safety management level of foundation pit engineering and reducing the incidence of foundation pit accidents. Firstly, based on literature review and questionnaires, this paper selected construction management, survey, design, construction, supervision and monitoring as research factors, we used the AHP method and the Dematel method to analyze the weights of various influencing factors to screen indicators to determine the ultimate system of accidents caused by foundation pit accidents; Secondly, SPSS 21.0 software was used to test the reliability and validity of the recovered questionnaire data. AMOS 7.0 software was used to fit, evaluate, and explain the set model; Finally, this paper analysed the influencing factors of foundation pit engineering accidents, corresponding management countermeasures and suggestions were put forward.

[Description of communications of work accidents registered in the National Institute of Social Security of Santa Maria, RS, in the year 2000].

PubMed

Kirchhof, Ana Lúcia Cardoso; Capellari, Claudia

2004-08-01

The communication of work accident is the document which warrants to the worker who suffered an accident the right to social benefit, and also serves as a source of epidemiological data. This study described the work accidents notified to the National Institute of Social Security of Santa Maria, RS, Brazil, in the year of 2000, attributing to them classifications that could be compared to Brazilian data and similar studies, among those the kind of accident, production sector and the worker's days off. It was possible to evidence the significant increase of notifications registered during the year of 2000 in relation to 1999, beyond the sub-register, specially in the scope of less serious accidents.

A Structured Model for Software Documentation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swigger, Keith

The concept of "structured programming" was developed to facilitate software production, but it has not carried over to documentation design. Two concepts of structure are relevant to user documentation for computer programs. The first is based on programming techniques that emphasize decomposition of tasks into discrete modules, while the second…

Mathematical modeling of ignition of woodlands resulted from accident on the pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perminov, V. A.; Loboda, E. L.; Reyno, V. V.

2014-11-01

Accidents occurring at the sites of pipelines, accompanied by environmental damage, economic loss, and sometimes loss of life. In this paper we calculated the sizes of the possible ignition zones in emergency situations on pipelines located close to the forest, accompanied by the appearance of fireballs. In this paper, using the method of mathematical modeling calculates the maximum size of the ignition zones of vegetation as a result of accidental releases of flammable substances. The paper suggested in the context of the general mathematical model of forest fires give a new mathematical setting and method of numerical solution of a problem of a forest fire modeling. The boundary-value problem is solved numerically using the method of splitting according to physical processes. The dependences of the size of the forest fuel for different amounts of leaked flammable substances and moisture content of vegetation.

Numerical reconstruction and injury biomechanism in a car-pedestrian crash accident.

PubMed

Zou, Dong-Hua; Li, Zheng-Dong; Shao, Yu; Feng, Hao; Chen, Jian-Guo; Liu, Ning-Guo; Huang, Ping; Chen, Yi-Jiu

2012-12-01

To reconstruct a car-pedestrian crash accident using numerical simulation technology and explore the injury biomechanism as forensic evidence for injury identification. An integration of multi-body dynamic, finite element (FE), and classical method was applied to a car-pedestrian crash accident. The location of the collision and the details of the traffic accident were determined by vehicle trace verification and autopsy. The accident reconstruction was performed by coupling the three-dimensional car behavior from PC-CRASH with a MADYMO dummy model. The collision FE models of head and leg, developed from CT scans of human remains, were loaded with calculated dummy collision parameters. The data of the impact biomechanical responses were extracted in terms of von Mises stress, relative displacement, strain and stress fringes. The accident reconstruction results were identical with the examined ones and the biomechanism of head and leg injuries, illustrated through the FE methods, were consistent with the classical injury theories. The numerical simulation technology is proved to be effective in identifying traffic accidents and exploring of injury biomechanism.

An Application of CICCT Accident Categories to Aviation Accidents in 1988-2004

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Joni K.

2007-01-01

Interventions or technologies developed to improve aviation safety often focus on specific causes or accident categories. Evaluation of the potential effectiveness of those interventions is dependent upon mapping the historical aviation accidents into those same accident categories. To that end, the United States civil aviation accidents occurring between 1988 and 2004 (n=26,117) were assigned accident categories based upon the taxonomy developed by the CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy Team (CICTT). Results are presented separately for four main categories of flight rules: Part 121 (large commercial air carriers), Scheduled Part 135 (commuter airlines), Non-Scheduled Part 135 (on-demand air taxi) and Part 91 (general aviation). Injuries and aircraft damage are summarized by year and by accident category.

Factors associated with urban non-fatal road-accident severity.

PubMed

Potoglou, Dimitris; Carlucci, Fabio; Cirà, Andrea; Restaino, Marialuisa

2018-02-05

This paper reports on the factors associated with non-fatal urban-road accident severity. Data on accidents were gathered from the local traffic police in the City of Palermo, one of the six most populated cities in Italy. Findings from a mixed-effects logistic-regression model suggest that accident severity increases when two young drivers are involved, road traffic conditions are light/normal and when vehicles crash on a two-way road or carriageway. Speeding is more likely to cause slight or serious injury even when compared to a vehicle moving towards the opposite direction of traffic. An accident during the summer is more likely to result in a slight or serious injury than an accident during the winter, which is in line with evidence from Southern Europe and the Middle East. Finally, the severity of non-fatal accident injuries in an urban area of Southern Europe was significantly associated with speeding, the age of the driver and seasonality.

Bayes classifiers for imbalanced traffic accidents datasets.

PubMed

Mujalli, Randa Oqab; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura

2016-03-01

Traffic accidents data sets are usually imbalanced, where the number of instances classified under the killed or severe injuries class (minority) is much lower than those classified under the slight injuries class (majority). This, however, supposes a challenging problem for classification algorithms and may cause obtaining a model that well cover the slight injuries instances whereas the killed or severe injuries instances are misclassified frequently. Based on traffic accidents data collected on urban and suburban roads in Jordan for three years (2009-2011); three different data balancing techniques were used: under-sampling which removes some instances of the majority class, oversampling which creates new instances of the minority class and a mix technique that combines both. In addition, different Bayes classifiers were compared for the different imbalanced and balanced data sets: Averaged One-Dependence Estimators, Weightily Average One-Dependence Estimators, and Bayesian networks in order to identify factors that affect the severity of an accident. The results indicated that using the balanced data sets, especially those created using oversampling techniques, with Bayesian networks improved classifying a traffic accident according to its severity and reduced the misclassification of killed and severe injuries instances. On the other hand, the following variables were found to contribute to the occurrence of a killed causality or a severe injury in a traffic accident: number of vehicles involved, accident pattern, number of directions, accident type, lighting, surface condition, and speed limit. This work, to the knowledge of the authors, is the first that aims at analyzing historical data records for traffic accidents occurring in Jordan and the first to apply balancing techniques to analyze injury severity of traffic accidents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Degraded document image enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Agam, G.; Bal, G.; Frieder, G.; Frieder, O.

2007-01-01

Poor quality documents are obtained in various situations such as historical document collections, legal archives, security investigations, and documents found in clandestine locations. Such documents are often scanned for automated analysis, further processing, and archiving. Due to the nature of such documents, degraded document images are often hard to read, have low contrast, and are corrupted by various artifacts. We describe a novel approach for the enhancement of such documents based on probabilistic models which increases the contrast, and thus, readability of such documents under various degradations. The enhancement produced by the proposed approach can be viewed under different viewing conditions if desired. The proposed approach was evaluated qualitatively and compared to standard enhancement techniques on a subset of historical documents obtained from the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum. In addition, quantitative performance was evaluated based on synthetically generated data corrupted under various degradation models. Preliminary results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Oil Spill Detection and Modelling: Preliminary Results for the Cercal Accident

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

da Costa, R. T.; Azevedo, A.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Oliveira, A.

2013-03-01

Oil spill research has significantly increased mainly as a result of the severe consequences experienced from industry accidents. Oil spill models are currently able to simulate the processes that determine the fate of oil slicks, playing an important role in disaster prevention, control and mitigation, generating valuable information for decision makers and the population in general. On the other hand, satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery has demonstrated significant potential in accidental oil spill detection, when they are accurately differentiated from look-alikes. The combination of both tools can lead to breakthroughs, particularly in the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS). This paper presents a hindcast simulation of the oil slick resulting from the Motor Tanker (MT) Cercal oil spill, listed by the Portuguese Navy as one of the major oil spills in the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. The accident took place nearby Leix˜oes Harbour, North of the Douro River, Porto (Portugal) on the 2nd of October 1994. The oil slick was segmented from available European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite SAR images, using an algorithm based on a simplified version of the K-means clustering formulation. The image-acquired information, added to the initial conditions and forcings, provided the necessary inputs for the oil spill model. Simulations were made considering the tri-dimensional hydrodynamics in a crossscale domain, from the interior of the Douro River Estuary to the open-ocean on the Iberian Atlantic shelf. Atmospheric forcings (from ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), river forcings (from SNIRH - the Portuguese National Information System of the Hydric Resources) and tidal forcings (from LNEC - the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering), including baroclinic gradients (NOAA), were considered. The lack of data for validation purposes only allowed the use of the

Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

2012-04-01

Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

Development of water environment information management and water pollution accident response system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, J.; Ruan, H.

2009-12-01

In recent years, many water pollution accidents occurred with the rapid economical development. In this study, water environment information management and water pollution accident response system are developed based on geographic information system (GIS) techniques. The system integrated spatial database, attribute database, hydraulic model, and water quality model under a user-friendly interface in a GIS environment. System ran in both Client/Server (C/S) and Browser/Server (B/S) platform which focused on model and inquiry respectively. System provided spatial and attribute data inquiry, water quality evaluation, statics, water pollution accident response case management (opening reservoir etc) and 2D and 3D visualization function, and gave assistant information to make decision on water pollution accident response. Polluted plume in Huaihe River were selected to simulate the transport of pollutes.

[Analysis of radiation-hygienic and medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

PubMed

Onishchenko, G G

2013-01-01

Since the day of "the Chernobyl accident" in 1986 more than 25 years have been past. Radioactively contaminated areas 14 subjects of the Russian Federation with a total area of more than 50 thousand km2, where 1.5 million people now reside were exposed to radioactive contamination. Currently, a system of comprehensive evaluation of radiation doses of the population affected by the "Chernobyl accidents", including 11 guidance documents has been created. There are methodically provided works on the assessment of average annual, accumulated and predicted radiation doses of population and its critical groups, as well as doses to the thyroid gland The relevance of the analysis of the consequences of the "Chernobyl accident" is demonstrated by the events in Japan, at nuclear power Fukusima-1. In 2011 - 20/2 there were carried out comprehensive maritime expeditions under the auspices of the Russian Geographical Society with the participation of relevant ministries and agencies, leading academic institutions in Russia. In 2012, work was carried out on radiation protection of the population from the potential transboundary impact of the accident at the Japanese nuclear power plant Fukushima-l. The results provide a basis for the favorable outlook for the radiation environment in our Far East and the Pacific coast of Russia.

Review the number of accidents in Tehran over a two-year period and prediction of the number of events based on a time-series model

PubMed Central

Teymuri, Ghulam Heidar; Sadeghian, Marzieh; Kangavari, Mehdi; Asghari, Mehdi; Madrese, Elham; Abbasinia, Marzieh; Ahmadnezhad, Iman; Gholizadeh, Yavar

2013-01-01

Background: One of the significant dangers that threaten people’s lives is the increased risk of accidents. Annually, more than 1.3 million people die around the world as a result of accidents, and it has been estimated that approximately 300 deaths occur daily due to traffic accidents in the world with more than 50% of that number being people who were not even passengers in the cars. The aim of this study was to examine traffic accidents in Tehran and forecast the number of future accidents using a time-series model. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional study that was conducted in 2011. The sample population was all traffic accidents that caused death and physical injuries in Tehran in 2010 and 2011, as registered in the Tehran Emergency ward. The present study used Minitab 15 software to provide a description of accidents in Tehran for the specified time period as well as those that occurred during April 2012. Results: The results indicated that the average number of daily traffic accidents in Tehran in 2010 was 187 with a standard deviation of 83.6. In 2011, there was an average of 180 daily traffic accidents with a standard deviation of 39.5. One-way analysis of variance indicated that the average number of accidents in the city was different for different months of the year (P < 0.05). Most of the accidents occurred in March, July, August, and September. Thus, more accidents occurred in the summer than in the other seasons. The number of accidents was predicted based on an auto-regressive, moving average (ARMA) for April 2012. The number of accidents displayed a seasonal trend. The prediction of the number of accidents in the city during April of 2012 indicated that a total of 4,459 accidents would occur with mean of 149 accidents per day during these three months. Conclusion: The number of accidents in Tehran displayed a seasonal trend, and the number of accidents was different for different seasons of the year. PMID:26120405

Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

PubMed

Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

2016-03-01

In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

[Trends in traffic accident mortality in Spain, 1962-1994].

PubMed

Redondo Calderón, J; Luna Del Castillo, J D; Jiménez Moleón, J J; Lardelli Claret, P; Gálvez Vargas, R

2000-01-01

To assess the evolution of the traffic accident mortality rate in Spain from 1962 to 1994, and the role played by its four theoretical components: motorization index (vehicles/population), accidentability index (accidents/vehicles), harmfulness index (victims/accidents) and fatality index (deaths/victims). Data from the National Population Census and the Bulletin of the Dirección General de Tráfico were collected to estimate the above mentioned indicators for all accidents and accidents in road and urban zones. Simple and multiple partial correlation coefficients among variables were calculated. Poisson regression models were also obtained. An increasing trend during the whole period was observed for the national traffic accident mortality rate, especially from 1982 to 1989 in the younger age groups, followed by a decrease since 1990. The aforementioned four components were significatively associated with the mortality rate. The strength of this association was especially high for the motorization index and for the harmfulness index when all accidents and road accidents were considered. For urban accidents, the fatality index rate is the component most strongly associated with mortality rate. The role played by the accidentability index in the magnitude of the mortality rate seems less important. The growing exposure rate to traffic accidents observed in Spain (measured by the motorization index) is not directly influenced by public heath strategies. Therefore, it seems advisable to emphasize the development of measures focused to control the other three components of traffic accident mortality rate, especially those related with harmfulness and fatality.

Stroke-model-based character extraction from gray-level document images.

PubMed

Ye, X; Cheriet, M; Suen, C Y

2001-01-01

Global gray-level thresholding techniques such as Otsu's method, and local gray-level thresholding techniques such as edge-based segmentation or the adaptive thresholding method are powerful in extracting character objects from simple or slowly varying backgrounds. However, they are found to be insufficient when the backgrounds include sharply varying contours or fonts in different sizes. A stroke-model is proposed to depict the local features of character objects as double-edges in a predefined size. This model enables us to detect thin connected components selectively, while ignoring relatively large backgrounds that appear complex. Meanwhile, since the stroke width restriction is fully factored in, the proposed technique can be used to extract characters in predefined font sizes. To process large volumes of documents efficiently, a hybrid method is proposed for character extraction from various backgrounds. Using the measurement of class separability to differentiate images with simple backgrounds from those with complex backgrounds, the hybrid method can process documents with different backgrounds by applying the appropriate methods. Experiments on extracting handwriting from a check image, as well as machine-printed characters from scene images demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Road accidents caused by sleepy drivers: Update of a Norwegian survey.

PubMed

Phillips, Ross Owen; Sagberg, Fridulv

2013-01-01

The current study tests, updates and expands a model of factors associated with sleepy driving, originally based on a 1997 survey of accident-involved Norwegian drivers (Sagberg, F., 1999. Road accidents caused by drivers falling asleep. Accident Analysis & Prevention 31, 639-649). The aim is to establish a robust model to inform measures to tackle sleepy driving. The original questions on (i) tiredness-related accidents and (ii) incidents of sleep behind the wheel in the last 12 months were again posed in 2003 and 2008, in independent surveys of Norwegian drivers involved in accidents reported to a large insurance company. According to those drivers at-fault for the accident, tiredness or sleepiness behind the wheel contributed to between 1.9 and 3.9 per cent of all types of accident reported to the insurance company across these years. Accident-involved drivers not at fault for the accident reported a reduction in the incidence of sleep behind the wheel for the preceding year, decreasing from 8.3 per cent in 1997 to 2.9 per cent in 2008. The reasons for this are not clear. According to logistic regression analysis of survey responses, the following factors were robustly associated with road accidents involving sleepy driving: driving off the road; good road conditions; longer distance driven since the start of the trip; and fewer years with a driving licence. The following factors are consistently associated with reports of sleep behind the wheel, whether or not it leads to an accident: being male; driving further per year; being younger; and having sleep-related health problems. Taken together these findings suggest that young, inexperienced male drivers who drive long distances may be a suitable target for road safety campaigns aimed at tackling sleepy driving. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clustering-based classification of road traffic accidents using hierarchical clustering and artificial neural networks.

PubMed

Taamneh, Madhar; Taamneh, Salah; Alkheder, Sharaf

2017-09-01

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been widely used in predicting the severity of road traffic crashes. All available information about previously occurred accidents is typically used for building a single prediction model (i.e., classifier). Too little attention has been paid to the differences between these accidents, leading, in most cases, to build less accurate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is a well-known clustering method that seeks to group data by creating a hierarchy of clusters. Using hierarchical clustering and ANNs, a clustering-based classification approach for predicting the injury severity of road traffic accidents was proposed. About 6000 road accidents occurred over a six-year period from 2008 to 2013 in Abu Dhabi were used throughout this study. In order to reduce the amount of variation in data, hierarchical clustering was applied on the data set to organize it into six different forms, each with different number of clusters (i.e., clusters from 1 to 6). Two ANN models were subsequently built for each cluster of accidents in each generated form. The first model was built and validated using all accidents (training set), whereas only 66% of the accidents were used to build the second model, and the remaining 34% were used to test it (percentage split). Finally, the weighted average accuracy was computed for each type of models in each from of data. The results show that when testing the models using the training set, clustering prior to classification achieves (11%-16%) more accuracy than without using clustering, while the percentage split achieves (2%-5%) more accuracy. The results also suggest that partitioning the accidents into six clusters achieves the best accuracy if both types of models are taken into account.

Control of Industrial Safety Based on Dynamic Characteristics of a Safety Budget-Industrial Accident Rate Model in Republic of Korea.

PubMed

Choi, Gi Heung; Loh, Byoung Gook

2017-06-01

Despite the recent efforts to prevent industrial accidents in the Republic of Korea, the industrial accident rate has not improved much. Industrial safety policies and safety management are also known to be inefficient. This study focused on dynamic characteristics of industrial safety systems and their effects on safety performance in the Republic of Korea. Such dynamic characteristics are particularly important for restructuring of the industrial safety system. The effects of damping and elastic characteristics of the industrial safety system model on safety performance were examined and feedback control performance was explained in view of cost and benefit. The implications on safety policies of restructuring the industrial safety system were also explored. A strong correlation between the safety budget and the industrial accident rate enabled modeling of an industrial safety system with these variables as the input and the output, respectively. A more effective and efficient industrial safety system could be realized by having weaker elastic characteristics and stronger damping characteristics in it. A substantial decrease in total social cost is expected as the industrial safety system is restructured accordingly. A simple feedback control with proportional-integral action is effective in prevention of industrial accidents. Securing a lower level of elastic industrial accident-driving energy appears to have dominant effects on the control performance compared with the damping effort to dissipate such energy. More attention needs to be directed towards physical and social feedbacks that have prolonged cumulative effects. Suggestions for further improvement of the safety system including physical and social feedbacks are also made.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City.

PubMed

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007-2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0-15 years old). Middle-aged people (16-65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8-1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place.

Association between Daily Hospital Outpatient Visits for Accidents and Daily Ambient Air Temperatures in an Industrial City

PubMed Central

Chau, Tang-Tat; Wang, Kuo-Ying

2016-01-01

An accident is an unwanted hazard to a person. However, accidents occur. In this work, we search for correlations between daily accident rates and environmental factors. To study daily hospital outpatients who were admitted for accidents during a 5-year period, 2007–2011, we analyzed data regarding 168,366 outpatients using univariate regression models; we also used multivariable regression models to account for confounding factors. Our analysis indicates that the number of male outpatients admitted for accidents was approximately 1.31 to 1.47 times the number of female outpatients (P < 0.0001). Of the 12 parameters (regarding air pollution and meteorology) considered, only daily temperature exhibited consistent and significant correlations with the daily number of hospital outpatient visits for accidents throughout the 5-year analysis period. The univariate regression models indicate that older people (greater than 66 years old) had the fewest accidents per 1-degree increase in temperature, followed by young people (0–15 years old). Middle-aged people (16–65 years old) were the group of outpatients that were more prone to accidents, with an increase in accident rates of 0.8–1.2 accidents per degree increase in temperature. The multivariable regression models also reveal that the temperature variation was the dominant factor in determining the daily number of outpatient visits for accidents. Our further multivariable model analysis of temperature with respect to air pollution variables show that, through the increases in emissions and concentrations of CO, photochemical O3 production and NO2 loss in the ambient air, increases in vehicular emissions are associated with increases in temperatures. As such, increases in hospital visits for accidents are related to vehicular emissions and usage. This finding is consistent with clinical experience which shows about 60% to 80% of accidents are related to traffic, followed by accidents occurred in work place. PMID

A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

PubMed

Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

2017-09-01

Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines

PubMed Central

Dindarloo, Saeid R.; Pollard, Jonisha P.; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-01-01

Introduction Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. Methods A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Results Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5 years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. Conclusions The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Practical application Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with

Off-road truck-related accidents in U.S. mines.

PubMed

Dindarloo, Saeid R; Pollard, Jonisha P; Siami-Irdemoosa, Elnaz

2016-09-01

Off-road trucks are one of the major sources of equipment-related accidents in the U.S. mining industries. A systematic analysis of all off-road truck-related accidents, injuries, and illnesses, which are reported and published by the Mine Safety and Health Administration (MSHA), is expected to provide practical insights for identifying the accident patterns and trends in the available raw database. Therefore, appropriate safety management measures can be administered and implemented based on these accident patterns/trends. A hybrid clustering-classification methodology using K-means clustering and gene expression programming (GEP) is proposed for the analysis of severe and non-severe off-road truck-related injuries at U.S. mines. Using the GEP sub-model, a small subset of the 36 recorded attributes was found to be correlated to the severity level. Given the set of specified attributes, the clustering sub-model was able to cluster the accident records into 5 distinct groups. For instance, the first cluster contained accidents related to minerals processing mills and coal preparation plants (91%). More than two-thirds of the victims in this cluster had less than 5years of job experience. This cluster was associated with the highest percentage of severe injuries (22 severe accidents, 3.4%). Almost 50% of all accidents in this cluster occurred at stone operations. Similarly, the other four clusters were characterized to highlight important patterns that can be used to determine areas of focus for safety initiatives. The identified clusters of accidents may play a vital role in the prevention of severe injuries in mining. Further research into the cluster attributes and identified patterns will be necessary to determine how these factors can be mitigated to reduce the risk of severe injuries. Analyzing injury data using data mining techniques provides some insight into attributes that are associated with high accuracies for predicting injury severity. Copyright © 2016

Radioactive release during nuclear accidents in Chernobyl and Fukushima

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nur Ain Sulaiman, Siti; Mohamed, Faizal; Rahim, Ahmad Nabil Ab

2018-01-01

Nuclear accidents that occurred in Chernobyl and Fukushima have initiated many research interests to understand the cause and mechanism of radioactive release within reactor compound and to the environment. Common types of radionuclide release are the fission products from the irradiated fuel rod itself. In case of nuclear accident, the focus of monitoring will be mostly on the release of noble gases, I-131 and Cs-137. As these are the only accidents have been rated within International Nuclear Events Scale (INES) Level 7, the radioactive release to the environment was one of the critical insights to be monitored. It was estimated that the release of radioactive material to the atmosphere due to Fukushima accident was approximately 10% of the Chernobyl accident. By referring to the previous reports using computational code systems to model the release rate, the release activity of I-131 and Cs-137 in Chernobyl was significantly higher compare to Fukushima. The simulation code also showed that Chernobyl had higher release rate of both radionuclides on the day of accident. Other factors affecting the radioactive release for Fukushima and Chernobyl accidents such as the current reactor technology and safety measures are also compared for discussion.

Preventing accidents

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2005-08-01

As the most effective strategy for improving safety is to prevent accidents from occurring at all, the Volpe Center applies a broad range of research techniques and capabilities to determine causes and consequences of accidents and to identify, asses...

[Major rural accident: the pesticide "rain" case in Lucas do Rio Verde city - MT].

PubMed

Pignati, Wanderlei Antonio; Machado, Jorge M H; Cabral, James F

2007-01-01

The article reports the environmental accident caused by aerial pesticide spraying that reached the urban space of Lucas do Rio Verde-MT, in March 2006. It was characterized as a "major rural accident" of environmental and occupational aspects whose seriousness and extension crossed the agriculturally productive unit boundaries causing sanitary, social and environmental impact. This case study had as its objective the understanding of the social-technical scene of the accident and the monitoring process in health-environment in a research-action dynamic. The information was collected through interviews, documents and daily observation reports. It also referred to accidents, multidisciplinary and participatory analyses with the participation of local institutions of health, agriculture and environment, political and union leaderships, ranchers and farmers, the public prosecutor's office, journalists and the University. The study shows that the pesticide "use and abuse" monitoring actions have been extended to [a] "movement for the sustainable development of the region" supported by the participative monitoring and the fight for democracy and social justice in the search of a sustainable agriculture and/or environment.

Reading, Writing, and Documentation and Managing the Development of User Documentation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindberg, Wayne; Hoffman, Terrye

1987-01-01

The first of two articles addressing the issue of user documentation for computer software discusses the need to teach users how to read documentation. The second presents a guide for writing documentation that is based on the instructional systems design model, and makes suggestions for the desktop publishing of user manuals. (CLB)

Visualization of Traffic Accidents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

2010-01-01

Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Assessment of trend and seasonality in road accident data: an Iranian case study.

PubMed

Razzaghi, Alireza; Bahrampour, Abbas; Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Zolala, Farzaneh

2013-06-01

Road traffic accidents and their related deaths have become a major concern, particularly in developing countries. Iran has adopted a series of policies and interventions to control the high number of accidents occurring over the past few years. In this study we used a time series model to understand the trend of accidents, and ascertain the viability of applying ARIMA models on data from Taybad city. This study is a cross-sectional study. We used data from accidents occurring in Taybad between 2007 and 2011. We obtained the data from the Ministry of Health (MOH) and used the time series method with a time lag of one month. After plotting the trend, non-stationary data in mean and variance were removed using Box-Cox transformation and a differencing method respectively. The ACF and PACF plots were used to control the stationary situation. The traffic accidents in our study had an increasing trend over the five years of study. Based on ACF and PACF plots gained after applying Box-Cox transformation and differencing, data did not fit to a time series model. Therefore, neither ARIMA model nor seasonality were observed. Traffic accidents in Taybad have an upward trend. In addition, we expected either the AR model, MA model or ARIMA model to have a seasonal trend, yet this was not observed in this analysis. Several reasons may have contributed to this situation, such as uncertainty of the quality of data, weather changes, and behavioural factors that are not taken into account by time series analysis.

Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

PubMed Central

Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

2002-01-01

Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

Industrial Safety and Utopia: Insights from the Fukushima Daiichi Accident.

PubMed

Travadel, Sébastien; Guarnieri, Franck; Portelli, Aurélien

2018-01-01

Feedback from industrial accidents is provided by various state or even international, institutions, and lessons learned can be controversial. However, there has been little research into organizational learning at the international level. This article helps to fill the gap through an in-depth review of official reports of the Fukushima Daiichi accident published shortly after the event. We present a new method to analyze the arguments contained in these voluminous documents. Taking an intertextual perspective, the method focuses on the accident narratives, their rationale, and links between "facts," "causes," and "recommendations." The aim is to evaluate how the findings of the various reports are consistent with (or contradict) "institutionalized knowledge," and identify the social representations that underpin them. We find that although the scientific controversy surrounding the results of the various inquiries reflects different ethical perspectives, they are integrated into the same utopian ideal. The involvement of multiple actors in this controversy raises questions about the public construction of epistemic authority, and we highlight the special status given to the International Atomic Energy Agency in this regard. © 2017 The Authors Risk Analysis published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society for Risk Analysis.

Fatal aviation accidents in Lower Saxony from 1979 to 1996.

PubMed

Ast, F W; Kernbach-Wighton, G; Kampmann, H; Koops, E; Püschel, K; Tröger, H D; Kleemann, W J

2001-06-01

So far no national or regional studies have been published in Germany regarding the number of fatal aviation accidents and results of autopsy findings. Therefore, we evaluated all fatal aviation accidents occurring in Lower Saxony from 1979 to 1996. A total of 96 aviation accidents occurred in this period involving 73 aeroplanes. The crashes resulted in the death of 154 people ranging in age from 19 to 68 years. The greatest number of victims in a single crash of an aircraft was (n=7). Other types of fatal accidents were crashes of aircraft and helicopter while on the ground (n=5), hot-air balloons (n=2), parachutes (n=10), hang glider accidents (n=5) and the striking of a bystander by a model airplane. Autopsies were performed on 68 of the 154 victims (44.2%), including 39 of the 73 pilots (53.4%). Some of the autopsies yielded findings relevant to the cause of the accident: gunshot wounds, the presence of alcohol or drugs in blood and preexisting diseases. Our findings emphasize the need for autopsy on all aviation accident victims, especially pilots, as this is the only reliable method to uncover all factors contributing to an accident.

Accident rates and the impact of daylight saving time transitions.

PubMed

Robb, David; Barnes, Thomas

2018-02-01

One-third of nations have adopted some form of Daylight Saving Time (DST). Associated costs and benefits include impacts on accident rates. Using data from 12.6 million accident claims in New Zealand during 2005-2016, we model accident rates as a function of various date-based predictors including days before/after the start and end of DST, holidays, day of week, and month of year. This is the first study to consider multiple accident categories (Road, Work, Falls and Home & Community), and the first in the southern hemisphere. The start of DST is associated with significantly higher rates of road accidents (first day +16% and second day +12%). Evidence that accident rates for Falls and Home & Community decline (increase) prior to the start (end) of DST suggest potential behavioural adaption from anticipating the change. While Work accidents show limited impact from DST changes, they exhibit a significant decline over the course of the week (Friday 13% lower than Monday), whereas Road accidents exhibit a significant increase (Friday 19% higher than Monday). Our results have implications for both DST implementation and policy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Sports accidents: 1963-1973 statistics].

PubMed

Fasler, S

1976-01-01

Every year, the Swiss Accident Insurance Administration is paying a considerable amount of money for sports accidents. From 1963 to 1973 the number of these accidents has increased more markedly than other types of accidents. Different tendencies can be observed in the different types of sports: skiing accidents have, after a long period of retrogression until 1973, shown a noticeable augmentation again. Football accidents and accidents in other types of sports have on the other hand increased year by year. Mountaineering and aquatic sports often result in fatal accidents. The numerous preventive measures in skiing accidents have obviously been successful. Not only the fractures have decreased, but also the average number of days where sickness benefit was paid. Next to the traffic accidents, the skiing accidents are the most expensive ones. The nature of the healing cost in sports accidents has changed during the period from 1967 to 1972, depending on the different types of sports. In particular, hospital costs have changed considerably. The number of medical consultations per accident has decreased. Payment of sickness benefit has followed the development of the salaries on the one hand and the modifications of the number of lost days on the other. Finally, the costs of the annuities show more or less the same tendency as the ones for sickness benefit. A very gross estimation on the economical losses through sports accidents in Switzerland makes us believe that the direct and indirect costs actually amount to more than one thousand millions of Swiss Francs per year.

Farm accidents in children.

PubMed Central

Cameron, D.; Bishop, C.; Sibert, J. R.

1992-01-01

OBJECTIVE--To examine the problem of accidental injury to children on farms. DESIGN--Prospective county based study of children presenting to accident and emergency departments over 12 months with injuries sustained in a farm setting and nationwide review of fatal childhood farm accidents over the four years April 1986 to March 1990. SETTING--Accident and emergency departments in Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, and Llanelli and fatal accidents in England, Scotland, and Wales notified to the Health and Safety Executive register. SUBJECTS--Children aged under 16. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death or injury after farm related accidents. RESULTS--65 accidents were recorded, including 18 fractures. Nine accidents necessitated admission to hospital for a mean of two (range one to four) days. 13 incidents were related to tractors and other machinery; 24 were due to falls. None of these incidents were reported under the statutory notification scheme. 33 deaths were notified, eight related to tractors and allied machinery and 10 related to falling objects. CONCLUSIONS--Although safety is improving, the farm remains a dangerous environment for children. Enforcement of existing safety legislation with significant penalties and targeting of safety education will help reduce accident rates further. PMID:1638192

Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

2015-02-01

Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. Themore » research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.« less

The CMIP5 Model Documentation Questionnaire: Development of a Metadata Retrieval System for the METAFOR Common Information Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascoe, Charlotte; Lawrence, Bryan; Moine, Marie-Pierre; Ford, Rupert; Devine, Gerry

2010-05-01

The EU METAFOR Project (http://metaforclimate.eu) has created a web-based model documentation questionnaire to collect metadata from the modelling groups that are running simulations in support of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project - 5 (CMIP5). The CMIP5 model documentation questionnaire will retrieve information about the details of the models used, how the simulations were carried out, how the simulations conformed to the CMIP5 experiment requirements and details of the hardware used to perform the simulations. The metadata collected by the CMIP5 questionnaire will allow CMIP5 data to be compared in a scientifically meaningful way. This paper describes the life-cycle of the CMIP5 questionnaire development which starts with relatively unstructured input from domain specialists and ends with formal XML documents that comply with the METAFOR Common Information Model (CIM). Each development step is associated with a specific tool. (1) Mind maps are used to capture information requirements from domain experts and build a controlled vocabulary, (2) a python parser processes the XML files generated by the mind maps, (3) Django (python) is used to generate the dynamic structure and content of the web based questionnaire from processed xml and the METAFOR CIM, (4) Python parsers ensure that information entered into the CMIP5 questionnaire is output as CIM compliant xml, (5) CIM compliant output allows automatic information capture tools to harvest questionnaire content into databases such as the Earth System Grid (ESG) metadata catalogue. This paper will focus on how Django (python) and XML input files are used to generate the structure and content of the CMIP5 questionnaire. It will also address how the choice of development tools listed above provided a framework that enabled working scientists (who we would never ordinarily get to interact with UML and XML) to be part the iterative development process and ensure that the CMIP5 model documentation questionnaire

Formulating accident occurrence as a survival process.

PubMed

Chang, H L; Jovanis, P P

1990-10-01

A conceptual framework for accident occurrence is developed based on the principle of the driver as an information processor. The framework underlies the development of a modeling approach that is consistent with the definition of exposure to risk as a repeated trial. Survival theory is proposed as a statistical technique that is consistent with the conceptual structure and allows the exploration of a wide range of factors that contribute to highway operating risk. This survival model of accident occurrence is developed at a disaggregate level, allowing safety researchers to broaden the scope of studies which may be limited by the use of traditional aggregate approaches. An application of the approach to motor carrier safety is discussed as are potential applications to a variety of transportation industries. Lastly, a typology of highway safety research methodologies is developed to compare the properties of four safety methodologies: laboratory experiments, on-the-road studies, multidisciplinary accident investigations, and correlational studies. The survival theory formulation has a mathematical structure that is compatible with each safety methodology, so it may facilitate the integration of findings across methodologies.

Understanding factors associated with misclassification of fatigue-related accidents in police record.

PubMed

Li, Yanyan; Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Zhang, Guangnan

2018-02-01

Fatigue is one of the riskiest causes of traffic accidents threatening road safety. Due to lack of proper criteria, the identification of fatigue-related accidents by police officers largely depends on inferential evidence and their own experience. As a result, many fatigue-related accidents are misclassified and the harmfulness of fatigue on road safety is misestimated. In this paper, a joint model framework is introduced to analyze factors contributing to misclassification of a fatigue-related accident in police reports. Association rule data mining technique is employed to identify the potential interactions of factors, and logistic regression models are applied to analyze factors that hinder police officers' identification of fatigue-related accidents. Using the fatigue-related crash records from Guangdong Province during 2005-2014, factors contributing to the false positive and false negative detection of the fatigue-related accident have been identified and compared. Some variables and interactions were identified to have significant impacts on fatigue-related accident detection. Based on the results, it can be inferred that the stereotype of certain groups of drivers, crash types, and roadway conditions affects police officers' judgment on fatigue-related accidents. This finding can provide useful information for training police officers and build better criteria for fatigue identification. Copyright © 2017 National Safety Council and Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

French policy for managing the post-accident phase of a nuclear accident.

PubMed

Gallay, F; Godet, J L; Niel, J C

2015-06-01

In 2005, at the request of the French Government, the Nuclear Safety Authority (ASN) established a Steering Committee for the Management of the Post-Accident Phase of a Nuclear Accident or a Radiological Emergency, with the objective of establishing a policy framework. Under the supervision of ASN, this Committee, involving several tens of experts from different backgrounds (e.g. relevant ministerial offices, expert agencies, local information commissions around nuclear installations, non-governmental organisations, elected officials, licensees, and international experts), developed a number of recommendations over a 7-year period. First published in November 2012, these recommendations cover the immediate post-emergency situation, and the transition and longer-term periods of the post-accident phase in the case of medium-scale nuclear accidents causing short-term radioactive release (less than 24 h) that might occur at French nuclear facilities. They also apply to actions to be undertaken in the event of accidents during the transportation of radioactive materials. These recommendations are an important first step in preparation for the management of a post-accident situation in France in the case of a nuclear accident. © The Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers 2014.

Residential Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.

Interview protocols and ergonomics checklist for analysing overexertion back accidents among nursing personnel.

PubMed

Engkvist, I L; Hagberg, M; Wigaeus-Hjelm, E; Menckel, E; Ekenvall, L

1995-06-01

No documented strategy, including preventive strategies, for systematic investigation of overexertion back accidents among nursing personnel has yet been published. One aim of the present study was to develop standardized instruments for the systematic investigation of back accidents among nursing personnel in order to develop preventive strategies. Another aim was to produce a screening tool that could easily be used for identifying potential overexertion back accident hazards. Two structured interview protocols were developed, one for the injured person and one for the supervisor. An ergonomics checklist was designed for the most important spaces according to accident statistics: patient's room, corridor, toilet, and also one for 'other space', eg X-ray and treatment rooms. The instruments were developed by frequent discussions and adjustments in a task force of researchers and occupational health personnel. The protocols were tested in two steps before a final version was established. The construct validity and interobserver reliability of the checklist were tested by ten ergonomists, who checked a patient's room, a toilet and a corridor with some known hazards. The constructed validity agreement was 90% in 19 of 26 items in the checklist. The interobserver reliability had the same figures as the validity for all items in the checklist. The interview protocols and checklist appear to be suitable for systematic investigation of overexertion back accidents.

The influence of the infrastructure characteristics in urban road accidents occurrence.

PubMed

Vieira Gomes, Sandra

2013-11-01

This paper summarizes the result of a study regarding the creation of tools that can be used in intervention methods in the planning and management of urban road networks in Portugal. The first tool relates the creation of a geocoded database of road accidents occurred in Lisbon between 2004 and 2007, which allowed the definition of digital maps, with the possibility of a wide range of consultations and crossing of information. The second tool concerns the development of models to estimate the frequency of accidents on urban networks, according to different desegregations: road element (intersections and segments); type of accident (accidents with and without pedestrians); and inclusion of explanatory variables related to the road environment. Several methods were used to assess the goodness of fit of the developed models, allowing more robust conclusions. This work aims to contribute to the scientific knowledge of accidents phenomenon in Portugal, with detailed and accurate information on the factors affecting its occurrence. This allows to explicitly include safety aspects in planning and road management tasks. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Airway accidents in critical care unit: A 3-year retrospective study in a Public Teaching Hospital of Eastern India

PubMed Central

Dasgupta, Sugata; Singh, Shipti Shradha; Chaudhuri, Arunima; Bhattacharya, Dipasri; Choudhury, Sourav Das

2016-01-01

Background: Although tracheal tubes are essential devices to control and protect airway in a critical care unit (CCU), they are not free from complications. Aims: To document the incidence and nature of airway accidents in the CCU of a government teaching hospital in Eastern India. Methods: Retrospective analysis of all airway accidents in a 5-bedded (medical and surgical) CCU. The number, types, timing, and severity of airway accidents were analyzed. Results: The total accident rate was 19 in 233 intubated and/or tracheostomized patients over 1657 tube days (TDs) during 3 years. Fourteen occurred in 232 endotracheally intubated patients over 1075 endotracheal tube (ETT) days, and five occurred in 44 tracheostomized patients over 580 tracheostomy TDs. Fifteen accidents were due to blocked tubes. Rest four were unplanned extubations (UEs), all being accidental extubations. All blockages occurred during night shifts and all UEs during day shifts. Five accidents were mild, the rest moderate. No major accident led to cardiorespiratory arrest or death. All blockages occurred after 7th day of intubation. The outcome of accidents were more favorable in tracheostomy group compared to ETT group (P = 0.001). Conclusions: The prevalence of airway accidents was 8.2 accidents per 100 patients. Blockages were the most common accidents followed by UEs. Ten out of the 15 blockages and all 4 UEs were in endotracheally intubated patients. Tracheostomized patients had 5 blockages and no UEs. PMID:27076709

A methodology for the transfer of probabilities between accident severity categories

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Whitlow, J. D.; Neuhauser, K. S.

A methodology has been developed which allows the accident probabilities associated with one accident-severity category scheme to be transferred to another severity category scheme. The methodology requires that the schemes use a common set of parameters to define the categories. The transfer of accident probabilities is based on the relationships between probability of occurrence and each of the parameters used to define the categories. Because of the lack of historical data describing accident environments in engineering terms, these relationships may be difficult to obtain directly for some parameters. Numerical models or experienced judgement are often needed to obtain the relationships.more » These relationships, even if they are not exact, allow the accident probability associated with any severity category to be distributed within that category in a manner consistent with accident experience, which in turn will allow the accident probability to be appropriately transferred to a different category scheme.« less

A Model for Indexing Medical Documents Combining Statistical and Symbolic Knowledge.

PubMed Central

Avillach, Paul; Joubert, Michel; Fieschi, Marius

2007-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To develop and evaluate an information processing method based on terminologies, in order to index medical documents in any given documentary context. METHODS: We designed a model using both symbolic general knowledge extracted from the Unified Medical Language System (UMLS) and statistical knowledge extracted from a domain of application. Using statistical knowledge allowed us to contextualize the general knowledge for every particular situation. For each document studied, the extracted terms are ranked to highlight the most significant ones. The model was tested on a set of 17,079 French standardized discharge summaries (SDSs). RESULTS: The most important ICD-10 term of each SDS was ranked 1st or 2nd by the method in nearly 90% of the cases. CONCLUSIONS: The use of several terminologies leads to more precise indexing. The improvement achieved in the model’s implementation performances as a result of using semantic relationships is encouraging. PMID:18693792

Retrospection of Chernobyl nuclear accident for decision analysis concerning remedial actions in Ukraine

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Georgievskiy, Vladimir

2007-07-01

It is considered the efficacy of decisions concerning remedial actions when of-site radiological monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases was absent or was not informative. There are examples of such situations in the former Soviet Union where many people have been exposed: releases of radioactive materials from 'Krasnoyarsk-26' into Enisey River, releases of radioactive materials from 'Chelabinsk-65' (the Kishtim accident), nuclear tests at the Semipalatinsk Test Site, the Chernobyl nuclear accident etc. If monitoring in the early and (or) in the intermediate phases is absent the decisions concerning remedial actions are usually developed on the basemore » of permanent monitoring. However decisions of this kind may be essentially erroneous. For these cases it is proposed to make retrospection of radiological data of the early and intermediate phases of nuclear accident and to project decisions concerning remedial actions on the base of both retrospective data and permanent monitoring data. In this Report the indicated problem is considered by the example of the Chernobyl accident for Ukraine. Their of-site radiological monitoring in the early and intermediate phases was unsatisfactory. In particular, the pasture-cow-milk monitoring had not been made. All official decisions concerning dose estimations had been made on the base of measurements of {sup 137}Cs in body (40 measurements in 135 days and 55 measurements in 229 days after the Chernobyl accident). For the retrospection of radiological data of the Chernobyl accident dynamic model has been developed. This model has structure similar to the structure of Pathway model and Farmland model. Parameters of the developed model have been identified for agricultural conditions of Russia and Ukraine. By means of this model dynamics of 20 radionuclides in pathways and dynamics of doses have been estimated for the early, intermediate and late phases of the Chernobyl accident. The main results are

Reactor Safety Gap Evaluation of Accident Tolerant Components and Severe Accident Analysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Farmer, Mitchell T.; Bunt, R.; Corradini, M.

The overall objective of this study was to conduct a technology gap evaluation on accident tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist, given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research, and additionally augmented by insights obtained from the Fukushima accident. The ultimate benefit of this activity is that the results can be used to refine the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Reactor Safety Technology (RST) research and development (R&D) program plan to address key knowledge gaps in severe accident phenomena and analyses that affectmore » reactor safety and that are not currently being addressed by the industry or the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).« less

Man, road and vehicle: risk factors associated with the severity of traffic accidents.

PubMed

Almeida, Rosa Lívia Freitas de; Bezerra Filho, José Gomes; Braga, José Ueleres; Magalhães, Francismeire Brasileiro; Macedo, Marinila Calderaro Munguba; Silva, Kellyanne Abreu

2013-08-01

To describe the main characteristics of victims, roads and vehicles involved in traffic accidents and the risk factors involved in accidents resulting in death. METHODS A non-concurrent cohort study of traffic accidents in Fortaleza, CE, Northeastern Brazil, in the period from January 2004 to December 2008. Data from the Fortaleza Traffic Accidents Information System, the Mortality Information System, the Hospital Information System and the State Traffic Department Driving Licenses and Vehicle database. Deterministic and probabilistic relationship techniques were used to integrate the databases. First, descriptive analysis of data relating to people, roads, vehicles and weather was carried out. In the investigation of risk factors for death by traffic accident, generalized linear models were used. The fit of the model was verified by likelihood ratio and ROC analysis. RESULTS There were 118,830 accidents recorded in the period. The most common types of accidents were crashes/collisions (78.1%), running over pedestrians (11.9%), colliding with a fixed obstacle (3.9%), and with motorcycles (18.1%). Deaths occurred in 1.4% of accidents. The factors that were independently associated with death by traffic accident in the final model were bicycles (OR = 21.2, 95%CI 16.1;27.8), running over pedestrians OR = 5.9 (95%CI 3.7;9.2), collision with a fixed obstacle (OR = 5.7, 95%CI 3.1;10.5) and accidents involving motorcyclists (OR = 3.5, 95%CI 2.6;4.6). The main contributing factors were a single person being involved (OR = 6.6, 95%CI 4.1;10.73), presence of unskilled drivers (OR = 4.1, 95%CI 2.9;5.5) a single vehicle (OR = 3.9, 95%CI 2,3;6,4), male (OR = 2.5, 95%CI 1.9;3.3), traffic on roads under federal jurisdiction (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.7), early morning hours (OR = 2.4, 95%CI 1.8;3.0), and Sundays (OR = 1.7, 95%CI 1.3;2.2), adjusted according to the log-binomial model. CONCLUSIONS Activities promoting the prevention of traffic accidents should primarily focus on

Analysis of multiple tank car releases in train accidents.

PubMed

Liu, Xiang; Liu, Chang; Hong, Yili

2017-10-01

There are annually over two million carloads of hazardous materials transported by rail in the United States. The American railroads use large blocks of tank cars to transport petroleum crude oil and other flammable liquids from production to consumption sites. Being different from roadway transport of hazardous materials, a train accident can potentially result in the derailment and release of multiple tank cars, which may result in significant consequences. The prior literature predominantly assumes that the occurrence of multiple tank car releases in a train accident is a series of independent Bernoulli processes, and thus uses the binomial distribution to estimate the total number of tank car releases given the number of tank cars derailing or damaged. This paper shows that the traditional binomial model can incorrectly estimate multiple tank car release probability by magnitudes in certain circumstances, thereby significantly affecting railroad safety and risk analysis. To bridge this knowledge gap, this paper proposes a novel, alternative Correlated Binomial (CB) model that accounts for the possible correlations of multiple tank car releases in the same train. We test three distinct correlation structures in the CB model, and find that they all outperform the conventional binomial model based on empirical tank car accident data. The analysis shows that considering tank car release correlations would result in a significantly improved fit of the empirical data than otherwise. Consequently, it is prudent to consider alternative modeling techniques when analyzing the probability of multiple tank car releases in railroad accidents. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimation of fatality and injury risk by means of in-depth fatal accident investigation data.

PubMed

Yannis, George; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Dupont, Emmanuelle; Martensen, Heike

2010-10-01

In this article the factors affecting fatality and injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents are analyzed by means of in-depth accident investigation data, with emphasis on parameters not extensively explored in previous research. A fatal accident investigation (FAI) database is used, which includes intermediate-level in-depth data for a harmonized representative sample of 1300 fatal accidents in 7 European countries. The FAI database offers improved potential for analysis, because it includes information on a number of variables that are seldom available, complete, or accurately recorded in road accident databases. However, the fact that only fatal accidents are examined requires for methodological adjustments, namely, the correction for two types of effects on a road user's baseline risk: "accident size" effects, and "relative vulnerability" effects. Fatality and injury risk can be then modeled through multilevel logistic regression models, which account for the hierarchical dependences of the road accident process. The results show that the baseline fatality risk of road users involved in fatal accidents decreases with accident size and increases with the vulnerability of the road user. On the contrary, accident size increases nonfatal injury risk of road users involved in fatal accidents. Other significant effects on fatality and injury risk in fatal accidents include road user age, vehicle type, speed limit, the chain of accident events, vehicle maneuver, and safety equipment. In particular, the presence and use of safety equipment such as seat belt, antilock braking system (ABS), and electronic stability program (ESP) are protection factors for car occupants, especially for those seated at the front seats. Although ABS and ESP systems are typically associated with positive effects on accident occurrence, the results of this research revealed significant related effects on accident severity as well. Moreover, accident consequences are more severe

Long term radiocesium contamination of fruit trees following the Chernobyl accident.

PubMed

Antonopoulos-Domis, M; Clouvas, A; Gagianas, A

1996-12-01

Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of fruits and leaves from various fruit trees was systematically studied from 1990 to 1995 on two agricultural experimentation farms in Northern Greece. The results are discussed in the framework of a previously published model describing the long-term radiocesium contamination mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident. The results of the present work qualitatively verify the model predictions.

Bayesian networks for maritime traffic accident prevention: benefits and challenges.

PubMed

Hänninen, Maria

2014-12-01

Bayesian networks are quantitative modeling tools whose applications to the maritime traffic safety context are becoming more popular. This paper discusses the utilization of Bayesian networks in maritime safety modeling. Based on literature and the author's own experiences, the paper studies what Bayesian networks can offer to maritime accident prevention and safety modeling and discusses a few challenges in their application to this context. It is argued that the capability of representing rather complex, not necessarily causal but uncertain relationships makes Bayesian networks an attractive modeling tool for the maritime safety and accidents. Furthermore, as the maritime accident and safety data is still rather scarce and has some quality problems, the possibility to combine data with expert knowledge and the easy way of updating the model after acquiring more evidence further enhance their feasibility. However, eliciting the probabilities from the maritime experts might be challenging and the model validation can be tricky. It is concluded that with the utilization of several data sources, Bayesian updating, dynamic modeling, and hidden nodes for latent variables, Bayesian networks are rather well-suited tools for the maritime safety management and decision-making. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Tourist visitation impacts of the accident at Three Mile Island

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Himmelberger, J.J.; Ogneva-Himmelberger, Y.A.; Baughman, M.L.

This paper analyzes tourist visitation impacts of the March 27, 1979 accident at Three Mile Island. A review of the literature, supplemented with recollections from Pennsylvanian public officials, are used to specify a conventional tourism impact model which holds that depressed 1979 summer tourism season was more influenced by gasoline shortages and possibly other confounding variables (such as rainy local weather conditions and a polio outbreak) than by the nuclear accident. Regression analysis using monthly visitation data for Hershey Chocolate World, Gettysburg National Park, The Pennsylvania Dutch Convention and Visitor Bureau, and several state parks as dependent variables provide supportmore » for this model. Potential tourism implications of an accident at Yucca Mountain are briefly discussed in light of our findings.« less

Relationship between accident severity and full-scale crash test. Volume I, Technical research effort

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1984-08-01

Available accident files are used to generate a 4l2-accident data base of guardrail impacts. This base is analyzed to develop a statistical model for predicting accident severity index (ASI) as a function of vehicle type or weight, impact speed, and ...

a Historical Timber Frame Model for Diagnosis and Documentation Before Building Restoration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koehl, M.; Viale, A.; Reeb, S.

2013-09-01

The aim of the project that is described in this paper was to define a four-level timber frame survey mode of a historical building: the so-called "Andlau's Seigniory", Alsace, France. This historical building (domain) was built in the late XVIth century and is now in a stage of renovation in order to become a heritage interpretation centre. The used measurement methods combine Total Station measurements, Photogrammetry and 3D Terrestrial Laser scanner. Different modelling workflows were tested and compared according to the data acquisition method, but also according to the characteristics of the reconstructed model in terms of accuracy and level of detail. 3D geometric modelling of the entire structure was performed including modelling the degree of detail adapted to the needs. The described 3D timber framework exists now in different versions, from a theoretical and geometrical one up to a very detailed one, in which measurements and evaluation of deformation by time are potentially allowed. The virtually generated models involving archaeologists, architects, historians and specialists in historical crafts, are intended to be used during the four stages of the project: (i) knowledge of the current state of needs for diagnosis and understanding of former construction techniques; (ii) preparation and evaluation of restoration steps; (iii) knowledge and documentation concerning the archaeological object; (iv) transmission and dissemination of knowledge through the implementation of museum animations. Among the generated models we can also find a documentation of the site in the form of virtual tours created from panoramic photographs before and during the restoration works. Finally, the timber framework model was structured and integrated into a 3D GIS, where the association of descriptive and complementary digital documents was possible. Both offer tools leading to the diagnosis, the understanding of the structure, knowledge dissemination, documentation and the

Lessons Learnt from Past Incidents and Accidents in Radiation Oncology.

PubMed

Knöös, T

2017-09-01

The purpose of this report is to review and compile what have been and can be learnt from incidents and accidents in radiation oncology, especially in external beam and brachytherapy. Some major accidents from the last 20 years will be discussed. The relationship between major events and minor or so-called near misses is mentioned, leading to the next topic of exploring the knowledge hidden among them. The main lessons learnt from the discussion here and elsewhere are that a well-functioning and safe radiotherapy department should help staff to work with awareness and alertness and that documentation and procedures should be in place and known by everyone. It also requires that trained and educated staff with the required competences are in place and, finally, functions and responsibilities are defined and well known. Copyright © 2017 The Royal College of Radiologists. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

49 CFR 837.3 - Published reports, material contained in the public accident investigation dockets, and accident...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... public accident investigation dockets, and accident database data. 837.3 Section 837.3 Transportation... investigation dockets, and accident database data. (a) Demands for material contained in the NTSB's official public docket files of its accident investigations, or its computerized accident database(s) shall be...

Analytics of Radioactive Materials Released in the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Egarievwe, Stephen U.; Nuclear Engineering Department, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN; Coble, Jamie B.

The 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident in Japan resulted in the release of radioactive materials into the atmosphere, the nearby sea, and the surrounding land. Following the accident, several meteorological models were used to predict the transport of the radioactive materials to other continents such as North America and Europe. Also of high importance is the dispersion of radioactive materials locally and within Japan. Based on the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Convention on Early Notification of a nuclear accident, several radiological data sets were collected on the accident by the Japanese authorities. Among the radioactive materials monitored, are I-131more » and Cs-137 which form the major contributions to the contamination of drinking water. The radiation dose in the atmosphere was also measured. It is impractical to measure contamination and radiation dose in every place of interest. Therefore, modeling helps to predict contamination and radiation dose. Some modeling studies that have been reported in the literature include the simulation of transport and deposition of I-131 and Cs-137 from the accident, Cs-137 deposition and contamination of Japanese soils, and preliminary estimates of I-131 and Cs-137 discharged from the plant into the atmosphere. In this paper, we present statistical analytics of I-131 and Cs-137 with the goal of predicting gamma dose from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The data sets used in our study were collected from the IAEA Fukushima Monitoring Database. As part of this study, we investigated several regression models to find the best algorithm for modeling the gamma dose. The modeling techniques used in our study include linear regression, principal component regression (PCR), partial least square (PLS) regression, and ridge regression. Our preliminary results on the first set of data showed that the linear regression model with one variable was the best with a root mean square error of 0.0133 �

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents.

PubMed

Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

2018-04-01

In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows' milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper.

Urban pedestrian accident countermeasures experimental evaluation. Volume 2, Accident studies

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1975-02-01

A pedestrian accident data collection system was established in six major cities. The system involved using the regular police accident report form and a specifically designed supplementary data form. The information on the forms was combined, and th...

Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

PubMed

Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

2013-11-01

This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs.

PubMed

Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

2018-01-25

We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed.

Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Volume Two

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barry, J. R.; Jenkins, D. R.; White, D. J.; Goodman, P. A.; Reingold, L. A.

2003-01-01

Volume II of the Report contains appendices that were cited in Volume I. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board produced many of these appendices as working papers during the investigation into the February 1, 2003 destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. Other appendices were produced by other organizations (mainly NASA) in support of the Board investigation. In the case of documents that have been published by others, they are included here in the interest of establishing a complete record, but often at less than full page size. Contents include: CAIB Technical Documents Cited in the Report: Reader's Guide to Volume II; Appendix D. a Supplement to the Report; Appendix D.b Corrections to Volume I of the Report; Appendix D.1 STS-107 Training Investigation; Appendix D.2 Payload Operations Checklist 3; Appendix D.3 Fault Tree Closure Summary; Appendix D.4 Fault Tree Elements - Not Closed; Appendix D.5 Space Weather Conditions; Appendix D.6 Payload and Payload Integration; Appendix D.7 Working Scenario; Appendix D.8 Debris Transport Analysis; Appendix D.9 Data Review and Timeline Reconstruction Report; Appendix D.10 Debris Recovery; Appendix D.11 STS-107 Columbia Reconstruction Report; Appendix D.12 Impact Modeling; Appendix D.13 STS-107 In-Flight Options Assessment; Appendix D.14 Orbiter Major Modification (OMM) Review; Appendix D.15 Maintenance, Material, and Management Inputs; Appendix D.16 Public Safety Analysis; Appendix D.17 MER Manager's Tiger Team Checklist; Appendix D.18 Past Reports Review; Appendix D.19 Qualification and Interpretation of Sensor Data from STS-107; Appendix D.20 Bolt Catcher Debris Analysis.

Hematological aftermath of the radiation accident in Istanbul.

PubMed

Engin, Velittin Selcuk; Tufan, Fatih; Kalayoglu Besisik, Sevgi; Engin, Gulgun; Ozturk, Mustafa; Ersoy, Suleyman

2015-01-01

The effects of radiation exposure are long-lasting. Long-term monitoring is imperative to diagnose late effects and improve our far-sightedness about possible events in the future. A radiation accident occurred in Istanbul in 1998 that resulted in mild to moderate acute radiation syndrome (ARS). In this study we aimed to investigate the changes in hematological parameters at the long-term follow-up of ARS patients. Ten adults were hospitalized after exposure to a 60Co source. Seven were diagnosed as having ARS and had severe and symptomatic pancytopenia. All of the exposed people recovered following intensive treatment. Treatment was supportive with transfusion, granulocyte-colony stimulating factor, and anti- infective management covering antifungal agents. Patients were closely monitored. Nine years after the accident, the initial and follow-up complete blood count examinations and peripheral blood smears (PBS) were comparatively evaluated by an experienced hematologist. The hematological laboratory values of the patients on admission, after treatment, and nine years after the accident were documented and compared. Biodosimetric analysis revealed that whole-body doses ranged from 1-1.9 Gy. All subjects have shown complete recovery of the hematological laboratory values after treatment. All but one of the subjects showed complete blood cell recovery. The improvement of the blood cell count of the excepted patient stalled at a mildly reduced level and his bone marrow was still hypocellular nine years after the accident; however, no malignant changes were detected. Values at admission were significantly different compared with post treatment and present values of all patients. Post treatment and follow-up values were similar. One of the patients died of lung cancer. None of the patients developed hematological malignancy. In this study, the recovery from ARS was complete after treatment. The small population, short follow-up period, and the relatively small doses

Economic development, mobility and traffic accidents in Algeria.

PubMed

Bougueroua, M; Carnis, L

2016-07-01

The aim of this contribution is to estimate the impact of road economic conditions and mobility on traffic accidents for the case of Algeria. Using the cointegration approach and vector error correction model (VECM), we will examine simultaneously short term and long-term impacts between the number of traffic accidents, fuel consumption and gross domestic product (GDP) per capital, over the period 1970-2013. The main results of the estimation show that the number of traffic accidents in Algeria is positively influenced by the GDP per capita in the short and long term. It implies that a higher economic development worsens the road safety situation. However, the new traffic rules adopted in 2009 have an impact on the forecast trend of traffic accidents, meaning efficient public policy could improve the situation. This result calls for a strong political commitment with effective countermeasures for avoiding the further deterioration of road safety record in Algeria. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigation of adolescent accident predictive variables in hilly regions.

PubMed

Mohanty, Malaya; Gupta, Ankit

2016-09-01

The study aims to determine the significant personal and environmental factors in predicting the adolescent accidents in the hilly regions taking into account two cities Hamirpur and Dharamshala, which lie at an average elevation of 700--1000 metres above the mean sea level (MSL). Detailed comparisons between the results of 2 cities are also studied. The results are analyzed to provide the list of most significant factors responsible for adolescent accidents. Data were collected from different schools and colleges of the city with the help of a questionnaire survey. Around 690 responses from Hamirpur and 460 responses from Dharamshala were taken for study and analysis. Standard deviations (SD) of various factors affecting accidents were calculated and factors with relatively very low SD were discarded and other variables were considered for correlations. Correlation was developed using Kendall's-tau and chi-square tests and factors those were found significant were used for modelling. They were - the victim's age, the character of road, the speed of vehicle, and the use of helmet for Hamirpur and for Dharamshala, the kind of vehicle involved was an added variable found responsible for adolescent accidents. A logistic regression was performed to know the effect of each category present in a variable on the occurrence of accidents. Though the age and the speed of vehicle were considered to be important factors for accident occurrence according to Indian accident data records, even the use of helmet comes out as a major concern. The age group of 15-18 and 18-21 years were found to be more susceptible to accidents than the higher age groups. Due to the presence of hilly area, the character of road becomes a major concern for cause of accidents and the topography of the area makes the kind of vehicle involved as a major variable for determining the severity of accidents.

Accident or homicide--virtual crime scene reconstruction using 3D methods.

PubMed

Buck, Ursula; Naether, Silvio; Räss, Beat; Jackowski, Christian; Thali, Michael J

2013-02-10

The analysis and reconstruction of forensically relevant events, such as traffic accidents, criminal assaults and homicides are based on external and internal morphological findings of the injured or deceased person. For this approach high-tech methods are gaining increasing importance in forensic investigations. The non-contact optical 3D digitising system GOM ATOS is applied as a suitable tool for whole body surface and wound documentation and analysis in order to identify injury-causing instruments and to reconstruct the course of event. In addition to the surface documentation, cross-sectional imaging methods deliver medical internal findings of the body. These 3D data are fused into a whole body model of the deceased. Additional to the findings of the bodies, the injury inflicting instruments and incident scene is documented in 3D. The 3D data of the incident scene, generated by 3D laser scanning and photogrammetry, is also included into the reconstruction. Two cases illustrate the methods. In the fist case a man was shot in his bedroom and the main question was, if the offender shot the man intentionally or accidentally, as he declared. In the second case a woman was hit by a car, driving backwards into a garage. It was unclear if the driver drove backwards once or twice, which would indicate that he willingly injured and killed the woman. With this work, we demonstrate how 3D documentation, data merging and animation enable to answer reconstructive questions regarding the dynamic development of patterned injuries, and how this leads to a real data based reconstruction of the course of event. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal relationship between economic development and occupational accidents in China.

PubMed

Song, Li; He, Xueqiu; Li, Chengwu

2011-01-01

The relativity between economic development and occupational accidents is a debated topic. Compared with the development courses of both economic development and occupational accidents in China during 1953-2008, this paper used statistic methods such as Granger causality test, cointegration test and impulse response function based on the vector autoregression model to investigate the relativity between economic development and occupational accidents in China from 1953 to 2008. Owing to fluctuation and growth scale characteristics of economic development, two dimensions including economic cycle and economic scale were divided. Results showed that there was no relationship between occupational accidents and economic scale during 1953-1978. Fatality rate per 10(5) workers was a conductive variable to gross domestic product per capita during 1979-2008. And economic cycle was an indicator to occupational accidents during 1979-2008. Variation of economic speed had important influence on occupational accidents in short term. Thus it is necessary to adjust Chinese occupational safety policy according to tempo variation of economic growth. Crown Copyright © 2010. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accidents on hospital wards.

PubMed Central

Levene, S; Bonfield, G

1991-01-01

Eight hospitals reported 781 non-iatrogenic accidents occurring to patients and visitors under 16 years of age during an 18 month period up to October 1989. Accidents more often involved boys and children aged 3 to 5 years old. Falls from a height, slips, and striking accidents were common by day and falls by night. A total of 41% of accidents to inpatients occurred when parents were present. Only three accidents were serious. Altogether 27% involved beds and cots, and only one consequent injury was more than minor. Data collected routinely in case of medicolegal action can be presented in a form that may facilitate preventative work. Potentially remediable causes for concern include falls from beds and cots and the use of makeshift equipment. PMID:1929510

Assessment of an explosive LPG release accident: a case study.

PubMed

Bubbico, Roberto; Marchini, Mauro

2008-07-15

In the present paper, an accident occurred during a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) tank filling activity has been taken into consideration. During the transfer of LPG from the source road tank car to the receiving fixed storage vessel, an accidental release of LPG gave rise to different final consequences ranging from a pool fire, to a fireball and to the catastrophic rupture of the tank with successive explosion of its contents. The sequence of events has been investigated by using some of the consequence calculation models most commonly adopted in risk analysis and accident investigation. On one hand, this allows to better understand the link between the various events of the accident. On the other hand, a comparison between the results of the calculations and the damages actually observed after the accident, allows to check the accuracy of the prediction models and to critically assess their validity. In particular, it was shown that the largest uncertainty is associated with the calculation of the energy involved in the physical expansion of the fluid (both liquid and vapor) after the catastrophic rupture of the tank.

Offsite radiological consequence analysis for the bounding flammable gas accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

CARRO, C.A.

2003-03-19

The purpose of this analysis is to calculate the offsite radiological consequence of the bounding flammable gas accident. DOE-STD-3009-94, ''Preparation Guide for U.S. Department of Energy Nonreactor Nuclear Facility Documented Safety Analyses'', requires the formal quantification of a limited subset of accidents representing a complete set of bounding conditions. The results of these analyses are then evaluated to determine if they challenge the DOE-STD-3009-94, Appendix A, ''Evaluation Guideline,'' of 25 rem total effective dose equivalent in order to identify and evaluate safety class structures, systems, and components. The bounding flammable gas accident is a detonation in a single-shell tank (SST).more » A detonation versus a deflagration was selected for analysis because the faster flame speed of a detonation can potentially result in a larger release of respirable material. As will be shown, the consequences of a detonation in either an SST or a double-shell tank (DST) are approximately equal. A detonation in an SST was selected as the bounding condition because the estimated respirable release masses are the same and because the doses per unit quantity of waste inhaled are generally greater for SSTs than for DSTs. Appendix A contains a DST analysis for comparison purposes.« less

Monte Carlo simulation of single accident airport risk profile

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

A computer simulation model was developed for estimating the potential economic impacts of a carbon fiber release upon facilities within an 80 kilometer radius of a major airport. The model simulated the possible range of release conditions and the resulting dispersion of the carbon fibers. Each iteration of the model generated a specific release scenario, which would cause a specific amount of dollar loss to the surrounding community. By repeated iterations, a risk profile was generated, showing the probability distribution of losses from one accident. Using accident probability estimates, the risks profile for annual losses was derived. The mechanics are described of the simulation model, the required input data, and the risk profiles generated for the 26 large hub airports.

Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 1, Reference design document

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

The Galileo mission uses nuclear power sources called Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) to provide the spacecraft's primary electrical power. Because these generators contain nuclear material, a Safety Analysis Report (SAR) is required. A preliminary SAR and an updated SAR were previously issued that provided an evolving status report on the safety analysis. As a result of the Challenger accident, the launch dates for both Galileo and Ulysses missions were later rescheduled for November 1989 and October 1990, respectively. The decision was made by agreement between the DOE and the NASA to have a revised safety evaluation and report (FSAR) preparedmore » on the basis of these revised vehicle accidents and environments. The results of this latest revised safety evaluation are presented in this document (Galileo FSAR). Volume I, this document, provides the background design information required to understand the analyses presented in Volumes II and III. It contains descriptions of the RTGs, the Galileo spacecraft, the Space Shuttle, the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS), the trajectory and flight characteristics including flight contingency modes, and the launch site. There are two appendices in Volume I which provide detailed material properties for the RTG.« less

Organisational Factors of Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMD) and Prevention

PubMed Central

LECLERCQ, Sylvie

2014-01-01

Workplace design and upkeep, or human factors, are frequently advanced for explaining so-called Occupational Slip, Trip and Fall Accidents (OSTFAs). Despite scientific progress, these accidents, and more broadly Occupational Accidents with Movement Disturbance (OAMDs), are also commonly considered to be “simple”. This paper aims to stimulate changes in such perceptions by focusing on organisational factors that often combine with other accident factors to cause movement disturbance and injury in work situations. These factors frequently lead to arbitration between production and safety, which involves implementation of controls by workers. These controls can lead to greater worker exposure to OAMD risk. We propose a model that focuses on such controls to account specifically for the need to confront production and safety logics within a company and to enhance the potential for appropriate prevention action. These are then integrated into the set of controls highlighted by work organisation model developed by the NIOSH. PMID:25345425

Circuit board accident--organizational dimension hidden by prescribed safety.

PubMed

de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Buoso, Eduardo; do Amaral Dias, Maria Dionísia; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade Gouveia

2012-01-01

This study analyzes an accident in which two maintenance workers suffered severe burns while replacing a circuit breaker panel in a steel mill, following model of analysis and prevention of accidents (MAPA) developed with the objective of enlarging the perimeter of interventions and contributing to deconstruction of blame attribution practices. The study was based on materials produced by a health service team in an in-depth analysis of the accident. The analysis shows that decisions related to system modernization were taken without considering their implications in maintenance scheduling and creating conflicts of priorities and of interests between production and safety; and also reveals that the lack of a systemic perspective in safety management was its principal failure. To explain the accident as merely non-fulfillment of idealized formal safety rules feeds practices of blame attribution supported by alibi norms and inhibits possible prevention. In contrast, accident analyses undertaken in worker health surveillance services show potential to reveal origins of these events incubated in the history of the system ignored in practices guided by the traditional paradigm.

Rear-end accident victims. Importance of understanding the accident.

PubMed Central

Sehmer, J. M.

1993-01-01

Family physicians regularly treat victims of rear-end vehicle accidents. This article describes how taking a detailed history of the accident and understanding the significance of the physical events is helpful in understanding and anticipating patients' morbidity and clinical course. Eight questions to ask patients are suggested to help physicians understand the severity of injury. PMID:8495140

Prevention of bicycle accidents.

PubMed

Simpson, A H; Mineiro, J

1992-01-01

To elucidate the way of reducing the number of bicycle accidents. A prospective study of all casualties from bicycle accidents attending an accident unit for a 29-month period was performed (1831 patients). A more detailed questionnaire on the causes of accidents was used for the last 12 months of the study (818 patients). In the 0-7 and 8-12 years age groups, 87.5 per cent and 66.2 per cent, respectively, were due to cyclist error. The 8-12-year-old cyclists were twice as likely to have caused the accident if they had not had formal training (risk ratio = 2.0). Over the age of 18 years, 41.4 per cent were due to another road user. A motor vehicle was involved in 633 of the 1831 accidents. Children under the age of 8 years should not be allowed on public roads. Older children should only be allowed on the roads after formal training. This should become part of the school curriculum. A campaign to increase the awareness of motorists would be expected to reduce the number of cycle accidents. It would be beneficial to dedicate more roads and tracks to cycle use. Cyclists should be encouraged to wear more protective gear.

Comparative analysis of the countermeasures taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radioiodine following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents: lessons from both accidents

PubMed Central

Uyba, Vladimir; Samoylov, Alexander; Shinkarev, Sergey

2018-01-01

Abstract In the case of a severe radiation accident at a nuclear power station, the most important radiation hazard for the public is internal exposure of the thyroid to radioiodine. The purposes of this paper were (i) to compare countermeasures conducted (following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents) aimed at mitigation of exposure to the thyroid for the public, (ii) to present comparative estimates of doses to the thyroid and (iii) to derive lessons from the two accidents. The scale and time of countermeasures applied in the early phase of the accidents (sheltering, evacuation, and intake of stable iodine to block the thyroid) and at a later time (control of 131I concentration in foodstuffs) have been described. After the Chernobyl accident, the estimation of the thyroid doses for the public was mainly based on direct thyroid measurements of ~400 000 residents carried out within the first 2 months. The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children reached 50 Gy. After the Fukushima accident, the estimation of thyroid doses was based on radioecological models due to a lack of direct thyroid measurements (only slightly more than 1000 residents were measured). The highest estimates of thyroid doses to children were a few hundred mGy. Following the Chernobyl accident, ingestion of 131I through cows’ milk was the dominant pathway. Following the Fukushima accident, it appears that inhalation of contaminated air was the dominant pathway. Some lessons learned following the Chernobyl and Fukushima accidents have been presented in this paper. PMID:29415268

The effect of road characteristics on motorcycle accident in Batu east Java Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abusini, Sobri

2013-09-01

Safe of transportation on road is global problem with not only transportation problem, but also social teritory problem in sosial life. WHO pay attention to safe transportation on road to decide healthy day in the world 2004 with caption: Road Safety is no Accident. WHO is clariafy that road accident level in the world have to reach 1.2 mellion victim death and over 30 mellion injuries every year. As much 85% sacrifice death are accident in develop state, where vehicle number only 32% from vehicle number in the world. That becouse as the objective is to decide influence road charakteristics geometrics for motorcycle accident in Batu East Java Indonesia. Using some statistical analysis it is found that the best-fit motorcycle accident model is: Acc = 0,009F0,703exp(-0,334SW-0,361G+0.077S) Where: Acc = number of accident, F = Flow, pcu/hr, SW = shoulder width (m), S = speed, km/hr, G = Gradient (0,1) The model shows that the affecting factors are flow, shoulder width and speed, therefore local government should improve some related factor (flow, shoulder width, Gradient and speed) that can reduce the number of motorcycle accident at crossing road in Batu.

Accident data availability

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-06-01

This project investigates alternate forms of dissemination for the accident information. Costs, capabilities, and compatibility are reviewed for integration of the accident database with a GIS format to allow a graphical and spatial interface. the is...

Part-time farmers and accidents with agricultural machinery: a moderated mediated model on the role played by frequency of use and unsafe beliefs

PubMed Central

Caffaro, Federica; Roccato, Michele; Micheletti Cremasco, Margherita; Cavallo, Eugenio

2017-01-01

Objectives: We aimed at testing a model of the direct and indirect effects of being a part-time farmer on the probability of being involved in an agricultural machinery-related accident, considering the role played by unsafe beliefs and the frequency of use of machinery. Methods: Two-hundred and fifty-two Italian men, regular users of agricultural machinery (age: Mean = 45.1 years, standard Deviation = 17.5), were administered a paper-and-pencil questionnaire addressing their relation with work, unsafe beliefs, and previous experience of machinery-related accidents. Results: Being a part-time farmer showed a positive association with unsafe beliefs only among occasional machinery users. Unsafe beliefs in turn showed a positive association with accidents. Conclusions: The study gave a novel contribution to the knowledge of the chain of events connecting part-time farmers with machinery-related accidents. Preventive training interventions targeting part-timer farmers using agricultural machinery just occasionally should be developed. PMID:29093365

Effective environmental factors on geographical distribution of traffic accidents on pedestrians, downtown Tehran city.

PubMed

Moradi, Ali; Soori, Hamid; Kavousi, Amir; Eshghabadi, Farshid; Nematollahi, Shahrzad; Zeini, Salahdien

2017-01-01

In most countries, occurrence of traffic causalities is high in pedestrians. The aim of this study is to geographically analyze the traffic casualties in pedestrians in downtown Tehran city. The study population consisted of traffic injury accidents in pedestrians occurred during 2015 in Tehran city. Data were extracted from offices of traffic police and municipality. For analysis of environmental factors and site of accidents, ordinary least square regression models and geographically weighted regression were used. Fitness and performance of models were checked using the Akaike information criteria, Bayesian information criteria, deviance, and adjusted R 2 . Totally, 514 accidents were included in this study. Of them, site of accidents was arterial streets in 370 (71.9%) cases, collector streets in 133 cases (25.2%), and highways in 11 cases (2.1%). Geographical units of traffic accidents in pedestrians had statistically significant relationship with a number of bus stations, number of crossroads, and recreational areas. Distribution of injury traffic accidents in pedestrians is different in downtown Tehran city. Neighborhoods close to markets are considered as most dangerous neighborhoods for injury traffic accidents. Different environmental factors are involved in determining the distribution of these accidents. The health of pedestrians in Tehran city can be improved by proper traffic management, control of environmental factors, and educational programs.

Columbia Accident Investigation Board. Volume One

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2003-01-01

The Columbia Accident Investigation Board's independent investigation into the February 1, 2003, loss of the Space Shuttle Columbia and its seven-member crew lasted nearly seven months. A staff of more than 120, along with some 400 NASA engineers, supported the Board's 13 members. Investigators examined more than 30,000 documents, conducted more than 200 formal interviews, heard testimony from dozens of expert witnesses, and reviewed more than 3,000 inputs from the general public. In addition, more than 25,000 searchers combed vast stretches of the Western United States to retrieve the spacecraft's debris. In the process, Columbia's tragedy was compounded when two debris searchers with the U.S. Forest Service perished in a helicopter accident. This report concludes with recommendations, some of which are specifically identified and prefaced as 'before return to flight.' These recommendations are largely related to the physical cause of the accident, and include preventing the loss of foam, improved imaging of the Space Shuttle stack from liftoff through separation of the External Tank, and on-orbit inspection and repair of the Thermal Protection System. The remaining recommendations, for the most part, stem from the Board's findings on organizational cause factors. While they are not 'before return to flight' recommendations, they can be viewed as 'continuing to fly' recommendations, as they capture the Board's thinking on what changes are necessary to operate the Shuttle and future spacecraft safely in the mid- to long-term. These recommendations reflect both the Board's strong support for return to flight at the earliest date consistent with the overriding objective of safety, and the Board's conviction that operation of the Space Shuttle, and all human space-flight, is a developmental activity with high inherent risks.

Consequences of severe nuclear accidents in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seibert, Petra; Arnold, Delia; Mraz, Gabriele; Arnold, Nikolaus; Gufler, Klaus; Kromp-Kolb, Helga; Kromp, Wolfgang; Sutter, Philipp

2013-04-01

A first part of the presentation is devoted to the consequences of the severe accident in the 1986 Chernobyl NPP. It lead to a substantial radioactive contaminated of large parts of Europe and thus raised the awareness for off-site nuclear accident consequences. Spatial patterns of the (transient) contamination of the air and (persistent) contamination of the ground were studied by both measurements and model simulations. For a variety of reasons, ground contamination measurements have variability at a range of spatial scales. Results will be reviewed and discussed. Model simulations, including inverse modelling, have shown that the standard source term as defined in the ATMES study (1990) needs to be updated. Sensitive measurements of airborne activities still reveal the presence of low levels of airborne radiocaesium over the northern hemisphere which stems from resuspension. Over time scales of months and years, the distribution of radionuclides in the Earth system is constantly changing, for example relocated within plants, between plants and soil, in the soil, and into water bodies. Motivated by the permanent risk of transboundary impacts from potential major nuclear accidents, the multidisciplinary project flexRISK (see http://flexRISK.boku.ac.at) has been carried out from 2009 to 2012 in Austria to quantify such risks and hazards. An overview of methods and results of flexRISK is given as a second part of the presentation. For each of the 228 NPPs, severe accidents were identified together with relevant inventories, release fractions, and release frequencies. Then, Europe-wide dispersion and dose calculations were performed for 2788 cases, using the Lagrangian particle model FLEXPART. Maps of single-case results as well as various aggregated risk parameters were produced. It was found that substantial consequences (intervention measures) are possible for distances up to 500-1000 km, and occur more frequently for a distance range up to 100-300 km, which is in

Introduction of Bayesian network in risk analysis of maritime accidents in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rahman, Sohanur

2017-12-01

Due to the unique geographic location, complex navigation environment and intense vessel traffic, a considerable number of maritime accidents occurred in Bangladesh which caused serious loss of life, property and environmental contamination. Based on the historical data of maritime accidents from 1981 to 2015, which has been collected from Department of Shipping (DOS) and Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Authority (BIWTA), this paper conducted a risk analysis of maritime accidents by applying Bayesian network. In order to conduct this study, a Bayesian network model has been developed to find out the relation among parameters and the probability of them which affect accidents based on the accident investigation report of Bangladesh. Furthermore, number of accidents in different categories has also been investigated in this paper. Finally, some viable recommendations have been proposed in order to ensure greater safety of inland vessels in Bangladesh.

Key Parameters for Operator Diagnosis of BWR Plant Condition during a Severe Accident

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Clayton, Dwight A.; Poore, III, Willis P.

2015-01-01

The objective of this research is to examine the key information needed from nuclear power plant instrumentation to guide severe accident management and mitigation for boiling water reactor (BWR) designs (specifically, a BWR/4-Mark I), estimate environmental conditions that the instrumentation will experience during a severe accident, and identify potential gaps in existing instrumentation that may require further research and development. This report notes the key parameters that instrumentation needs to measure to help operators respond to severe accidents. A follow-up report will assess severe accident environmental conditions as estimated by severe accident simulation model analysis for a specific US BWR/4-Markmore » I plant for those instrumentation systems considered most important for accident management purposes.« less

Managing the life cycle of electronic clinical documents.

PubMed

Payne, Thomas H; Graham, Gail

2006-01-01

To develop a model of the life cycle of clinical documents from inception to use in a person's medical record, including workflow requirements from clinical practice, local policy, and regulation. We propose a model for the life cycle of clinical documents as a framework for research on documentation within electronic medical record (EMR) systems. Our proposed model includes three axes: the stages of the document, the roles of those involved with the document, and the actions those involved may take on the document at each stage. The model includes the rules to describe who (in what role) can perform what actions on the document, and at what stages they can perform them. Rules are derived from needs of clinicians, and requirements of hospital bylaws and regulators. Our model encompasses current practices for paper medical records and workflow in some EMR systems. Commercial EMR systems include methods for implementing document workflow rules. Workflow rules that are part of this model mirror functionality in the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) EMR system where the Authorization/ Subscription Utility permits document life cycle rules to be written in English-like fashion. Creating a model of the life cycle of clinical documents serves as a framework for discussion of document workflow, how rules governing workflow can be implemented in EMR systems, and future research of electronic documentation.

[Minor and major work accidents in a Puglia business in the food sector: a 10-year study].

PubMed

Di Lorenzo, L; Zocchetti, C; Platania, A; De Francesco, G; De Metrio, R; Pirris, A; Gigante, M R

1998-01-01

At present no official data are available for those occupational accidents which, according to current law, are not subject to notification to the Italian National Institute for Insurance of Occupational Accidents (INAIL) and which are conventionally called "minor" accidents. They can be divided into accidents with prognosis from 1 to 3 days (franchises) and accidents which do not cause absence from work (medications). The already mentioned lack of data, which is not confined to Italy, is reflected in the small number of articles published in Italian and international journals. Also information regarding the possible relationships between "minor" accidents and the life habits of injured workers, are rare. The aim of this study was to provide detailed data on the characteristics of the different kinds of occupational accidents occurring in a food factory in Apulia, southern Italy, from 1985 to 1994, as well as to verify whether any relationship existed between the different types of occupational accidents and the consumption of cigarettes and alcohol by injured workers. The company's accident register yielded data on injuries which caused absence from work; the nursing service register provided information about accidents which did not determine absence from work; personal health documents gave details of worker life habits; and the company pay roll showed the amount of "worked hours". "Minor" accidents represented 70% of all accidents occurring during the ten year period studied. "Blue collars" had more frequent and serious occupational injuries, in comparison with "technical employees". "Minor" accidents, and especially "medications", occurred more frequently during one-shift work than during three-shift work. As work seniority increased, the number of "major" accidents decreased and number of accidents without absence from work rose. Contusions were the most frequent lesions and were responsible for the majority of the 3 kinds of accidents. "Medications" together

[Accidents with the "paraglider"].

PubMed

Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

1988-09-01

With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

Global ship accidents and ocean swell-related sea states

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Zhiwei; Li, Xiao-Ming

2017-11-01

With the increased frequency of shipping activities, navigation safety has become a major concern, especially when economic losses, human casualties and environmental issues are considered. As a contributing factor, the sea state plays a significant role in shipping safety. However, the types of dangerous sea states that trigger serious shipping accidents are not well understood. To address this issue, we analyzed the sea state characteristics during ship accidents that occurred in poor weather or heavy seas based on a 10-year ship accident dataset. Sea state parameters of a numerical wave model, i.e., significant wave height, mean wave period and mean wave direction, were analyzed for the selected ship accident cases. The results indicated that complex sea states with the co-occurrence of wind sea and swell conditions represent threats to sailing vessels, especially when these conditions include similar wave periods and oblique wave directions.

Investigated serious occupational accidents in the Netherlands, 1998-2009.

PubMed

Bellamy, Linda J; Manuel, Henk Jan; Oh, Joy I H

2014-01-01

Since 2003, a project has been underway to analyse the most serious occupational accidents in The Netherlands. All the serious occupational accidents investigated by the Dutch Labour Inspectorate for the 12 years of 1998-2009 inclusive have been entered into a database, a total of 20 030 investigations. This database uses a model of safety barriers supported by barrier tasks and management delivery systems such that, when combined with sector and year information, trends in the data can be analysed for their underlying causes. The trend analyses show that while the number of victims of serious reportable accidents is significantly decreasing, this is due to specific sectors, hazards and underlying causes. The significant results could not easily be directly associated with any specific regulation or action undertaken in The Netherlands although there have been many different approaches to reducing accidents during the period analysed, which could be contributing to the effect.

The willingness to pay of parties to traffic accidents for loss of productivity and consolation compensation.

PubMed

Jou, Rong-Chang; Chen, Tzu-Ying

2015-12-01

In this study, willingness to pay (WTP) for loss of productivity and consolation compensation by parties to traffic accidents is investigated using the Tobit model. In addition, WTP is compared to compensation determined by Taiwanese courts. The modelling results showed that variables such as education, average individual monthly income, traffic accident history, past experience of severe traffic accident injuries, the number of working days lost due to a traffic accident, past experience of accepting compensation for traffic accident-caused productivity loss and past experience of accepting consolation compensation caused by traffic accidents have a positive impact on WTP. In addition, average WTP for these two accident costs were obtained. We found that parties to traffic accidents were willing to pay more than 90% of the compensation determined by the court in the scenario of minor and moderate injuries. Parties were willing to pay approximately 80% of the compensation determined by the court for severe injuries, disability and fatality. Therefore, related agencies can use our study findings as the basis for determining the compensation that parties should pay for productivity losses caused by traffic accidents of different types. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Steam Oxidation Testing in the Severe Accident Test Station

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pint, Bruce A.

After the March 2011 accident at Fukushima Daiichi, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) began conducting high temperature steam oxidation testing of candidate materials for accident tolerant fuel (ATF) cladding in August 2011 [1-11]. The ATF concept is to enhance safety margins in light water reactors (LWR) during severe accident scenarios by identifying materials with 100× slower steam oxidation rates compared to current Zr-based alloys. In 2012, the ORNL laboratory equipment was expanded and made available to the entire ATF community as the Severe Accident Test Station (SATS) [4,12]. Compared to the current UO2/Zr-based alloy fuel system, an ATF alternative wouldmore » significantly reduce the rate of heat and hydrogen generation in the core during a coolant-limited severe accident [13-14]. The steam oxidation behavior of candidate materials is a key metric in the evaluation of ATF concepts and also an important input into models [15-17]. However, initial modeling work of FeCrAl cladding has used incomplete information on the physical properties of FeCrAl. Also, the steam oxidation data being collected at 1200°-1700°C is unique as no prior work has considered steam oxidation of alloys at such high temperatures. Also, because many accident scenarios include steadily increasing temperatures, the required data are not traditional isothermal exposures but exposures with varying “ramp” rates. In some cases, the steam oxidation behavior has been surprising and difficult to interpret. Thus, more fundamental information continues to be collected. In addition, more work continues to focus on commercially-manufactured tube material. This report summarizes recent work to characterize the behavior of candidate alloys exposed to high temperature steam, evaluate steam oxidation behavior in various ramp scenarios and continue to collect integral data on FeCrAl compared to conventional Zr-based cladding.« less

Quality evaluation of official accident reports conducted by Labour Authorities in Andalusia (Spain).

PubMed

Salguero-Caparros, Francisco; Suarez-Cebador, Manuel; Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos

2018-01-01

A public accident investigation is carried out when the consequences of the incident are significant or the accident has occurred in unusual circumstances. We evaluated the quality of the official accident investigations being conducted by Safety Specialists of the Labour Authorities in Andalusia. To achieve this objective, we analysed 98 occupational accident investigations conducted by the Labour Authorities in Andalusia in the last quarter of 2014. Various phases in the accident investigation process were examined, such as the use of the Eurostat variables within European Statistics on Accidents at Work (ESAW), detection of causes, determination of preventive measures, cost analysis of the accidents, identification of noncompliance with legal requirements or the investigation method used. The results of this study show that 77% of the official occupational accident investigation reports analysed were conducted in accordance with all the quality criteria recommended in the literature. To enhance glogal learning, and optimize allocation of resources, we propose the development of a harmonized European model for the public investigation of occupational accidents. Further it would be advisable to create a common classification and coding system for the causes of accidents for all European Union Member States.

Mortality among the residents of the Three Mile Island accident area: 1979-1992.

PubMed

Talbott, E O; Youk, A O; McHugh, K P; Shire, J D; Zhang, A; Murphy, B P; Engberg, R A

2000-06-01

The largest U.S. population exposed to low-level radioactivity released by an accident at a nuclear power plant is composed of residents near the Three Mile Island (TMI) Plant on 28 March 1979. This paper (a collaboration of The University of Pittsburgh and the Pennsylvania Department of Health) reports on the mortality experience of the 32,135 members in this cohort for 1979-1992. We analyzed standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) using a local comparison population and performed relative risk regression modeling to assess overall mortality and specific cancer risks by confounding factors and radiation-related exposure variables. Total mortality was significantly elevated for both men and women (SMRs = 109 and 118, respectively). All heart disease accounted for 43.3% of total deaths and demonstrated elevated SMRs for heart disease of 113 and 130 for men and women, respectively; however, when controlling for confounders and natural background radiation, these elevations in heart disease were no longer evident. Overall cancer mortality was similar in this cohort as compared to the local population (male SMR = 100; female SMR = 101). In the relative risk modeling, there was a significant effect for all lymphatic and hematopoietic tissue in males in relation to natural background exposure (p = 0.04). However, no trend was noted. We found a significant linear trend for female breast cancer risk in relation to increasing levels of TMI-related likely [gamma]-exposure (p = 0.02). Although such a relationship has been noted in other investigations, emissions from the TMI incident were significantly lower than in other documented studies. Therefore, it is unlikely that this observed increase is related to radiation exposure on the day of the accident. The mortality surveillance of this cohort does not provide consistent evidence that radioactivity released during the TMI accident has a significant impact on the mortality experience of this cohort to date. However, continued

NASA Standard for Models and Simulations (M and S): Development Process and Rationale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zang, Thomas A.; Blattnig, Steve R.; Green, Lawrence L.; Hemsch, Michael J.; Luckring, James M.; Morison, Joseph H.; Tripathi, Ram K.

2009-01-01

After the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) report. the NASA Administrator at that time chartered an executive team (known as the Diaz Team) to identify the CAIB report elements with Agency-wide applicability, and to develop corrective measures to address each element. This report documents the chronological development and release of an Agency-wide Standard for Models and Simulations (M&S) (NASA Standard 7009) in response to Action #4 from the report, "A Renewed Commitment to Excellence: An Assessment of the NASA Agency-wide Applicability of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report, January 30, 2004".

Aircraft accidents : method of analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1931-01-01

The revised report includes the chart for the analysis of aircraft accidents, combining consideration of the immediate causes, underlying causes, and results of accidents, as prepared by the special committee, with a number of the definitions clarified. A brief statement of the organization and work of the special committee and of the Committee on Aircraft Accidents; and statistical tables giving a comparison of the types of accidents and causes of accidents in the military services on the one hand and in civil aviation on the other, together with explanations of some of the important differences noted in these tables.

Documentation of a deep percolation model for estimating ground-water recharge

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bauer, H.H.; Vaccaro, J.J.

1987-01-01

A deep percolation model, which operates on a daily basis, was developed to estimate long-term average groundwater recharge from precipitation. It has been designed primarily to simulate recharge in large areas with variable weather, soils, and land uses, but it can also be used at any scale. The physical and mathematical concepts of the deep percolation model, its subroutines and data requirements, and input data sequence and formats are documented. The physical processes simulated are soil moisture accumulation, evaporation from bare soil, plant transpiration, surface water runoff, snow accumulation and melt, and accumulation and evaporation of intercepted precipitation. The minimum data sets for the operation of the model are daily values of precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature, soil thickness and available water capacity, soil texture, and land use. Long-term average annual precipitation, actual daily stream discharge, monthly estimates of base flow, Soil Conservation Service surface runoff curve numbers, land surface altitude-slope-aspect, and temperature lapse rates are optional. The program is written in the FORTRAN 77 language with no enhancements and should run on most computer systems without modifications. Documentation has been prepared so that program modifications may be made for inclusions of additional physical processes or deletion of ones not considered important. (Author 's abstract)

Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2: Scalar code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, D.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

1983-01-01

Volume 2, of a 3 volume technical memoranda contains a detailed documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2 contains the CYBER 205 scalar and vector codes of the model, list of variables, and cross references. A variable name dictionary for the scalar code, and code listings are outlined.

Sense and Sensibility in Technical Documentation: How Feminist Interpretation Strategies Can Save Lives in the Nation's Mines.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sauer, Beverly A.

This article analyzes post-accident investigation reports from a feminist perspective, showing how a feminist interpretation can change the way technical writers look at expertise and evidence. In comparing formal documentation of mine inspection reports with women's testimony about conditions in the mines, the article shows: (1) how the…

Road Traffic Accident Analysis of Ajmer City Using Remote Sensing and GIS Technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhalla, P.; Tripathi, S.; Palria, S.

2014-12-01

With advancement in technology, new and sophisticated models of vehicle are available and their numbers are increasing day by day. A traffic accident has multi-facet characteristics associated with it. In India 93% of crashes occur due to Human induced factor (wholly or partly). For proper traffic accident analysis use of GIS technology has become an inevitable tool. The traditional accident database is a summary spreadsheet format using codes and mileposts to denote location, type and severity of accidents. Geo-referenced accident database is location-referenced. It incorporates a GIS graphical interface with the accident information to allow for query searches on various accident attributes. Ajmer city, headquarter of Ajmer district, Rajasthan has been selected as the study area. According to Police records, 1531 accidents occur during 2009-2013. Maximum accident occurs in 2009 and the maximum death in 2013. Cars, jeeps, auto, pickup and tempo are mostly responsible for accidents and that the occurrence of accidents is mostly concentrated between 4PM to 10PM. GIS has proved to be a good tool for analyzing multifaceted nature of accidents. While road safety is a critical issue, yet it is handled in an adhoc manner. This Study is a demonstration of application of GIS for developing an efficient database on road accidents taking Ajmer City as a study. If such type of database is developed for other cities, a proper analysis of accidents can be undertaken and suitable management strategies for traffic regulation can be successfully proposed.

Truck accident and fatality rates calculated from California highway accident statistics for 1980 and 1981

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, R.N.; Wilmot, E.L.

California state highway accident rates for three types of truck vehicles (pickup, truck without trailer, and truck with trailer) were analyzed for 1980 and 1981 and for various road types in each of eleven state highway districts. Accident rates have not been available previously that are specific to truck vehicles, particularly truck with trailer. Reported data are presented that lead to several significant observations about truck accident rates: pickup truck accident rates are about twice the composite rates for all vehicle types; the fatality rates for trucks with trailer are nearly twice that for all vehicle types; fatality rates formore » trucks (without trailer) are comparable to the composite rates; and total accident and fatal-plus-injury rates for trucks with trailer are close to the composite rates in urban areas but higher in rural areas. The values for average total accident rates reported in 1981 are: 2.2 accidents per million vehicle miles (mvm) for pickups, 1.5 accidents per mvm for trucks, and 1.4 accidents per mvm for trucks with trailer. The values for average fatality rates reported in 1981 are: 3.8 fatalities per 100 mvm for pickups, 2.8 fatalities per 100 mvm for trucks, and 4.3 fatalities per 100 mvm for trucks with trailer. The reported rates for 1980 are approximately the same.« less

1995 Kentucky traffic accident facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1995 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

1996 Kentucky traffic accident facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1996 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

1998 Kentucky traffic accident facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1998-01-01

KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1998 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

1997 Kentucky traffic accident facts

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1997-01-01

KENTUCKYS TRAFFIC ACCIDENT FACTS report for 1997 is based on accident reports submitted to the Accident Unit housed : in the Kentucky State Police Information Services Branch, Records Section. As required by Kentucky Revised statutes 189.635, : ...

Measuring accident risk exposure for pedestrians in different micro-environments.

PubMed

Lassarre, Sylvain; Papadimitriou, Eleonora; Yannis, George; Golias, John

2007-11-01

Pedestrians are mainly exposed to the risk of road accident when crossing a road in urban areas. Traditionally in the road safety field, the risk of accident for pedestrian is estimated as a rate of accident involvement per unit of time spent on the road network. The objective of this research is to develop an approach of accident risk based on the concept of risk exposure used in environmental epidemiology, such as in the case of exposure to pollutants. This type of indicator would be useful for comparing the effects of urban transportation policy scenarios on pedestrian safety. The first step is to create an indicator of pedestrians' exposure, which is based on motorised vehicles' "concentration" by lane and also takes account of traffic speed and time spent to cross. This is applied to two specific micro-environments: junctions and mid-block locations. A model of pedestrians' crossing behaviour along a trip is then developed, based on a hierarchical choice between junctions and mid-block locations and taking account of origin and destination, traffic characteristics and pedestrian facilities. Finally, a complete framework is produced for modelling pedestrians' exposure in the light of their crossing behaviour. The feasibility of this approach is demonstrated on an artificial network and a first set of results is obtained from the validation of the models in observational studies.

A major sporting event does not necessarily mean an increased workload for accident and emergency departments. Euro96 Group of Accident and Emergency Departments

PubMed Central

Cooke, M. W.; Allan, T. F.; Wilson, S.

1999-01-01

AIM: To determine whether there were any changes in attendance at accident and emergency departments that could be related to international football matches (Euro96 tournament). METHOD: Fourteen accident and emergency departments (seven adjacent to and seven distant from a Euro96 venue) provided their daily attendance figures for a nine week period: three weeks before, during, and after the tournament. The relation between daily attendance rates and Euro96 football matches was assessed using a generalised linear model and analysis of variance. The model took into account underlying trends in attendance rates including day of the week. RESULTS: The 14 hospitals contributed 172 366 attendances (mean number of daily attendances 195). No association was shown between the number of attendances at accident and emergency departments and the day of the football match, whether the departments were near to or distant from stadia or the occurrence of a home nation match. The only observed independent predictors of variation were day of the week and week of the year. Attendance rates were significantly higher on Sunday and/or Monday; Monday was about 9% busier than the daily average. Increasing attendance was observed over time for 86% of the hospitals. CONCLUSION: Large sports tournaments do not increase the number of patients attending accident and emergency departments. Special measures are not required for major sporting events over and above the capacity of an accident and emergency department to increase its throughput on other days. 


 PMID:10522636