Science.gov

Sample records for accident model document

  1. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2, Book 2: Accident model document: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-12-15

    This section of the Accident Model Document (AMD) presents the appendices which describe the various analyses that have been conducted for use in the Galileo Final Safety Analysis Report II, Volume II. Included in these appendices are the approaches, techniques, conditions and assumptions used in the development of the analytical models plus the detailed results of the analyses. Also included in these appendices are summaries of the accidents and their associated probabilities and environment models taken from the Shuttle Data Book (NSTS-08116), plus summaries of the several segments of the recent GPHS safety test program. The information presented in these appendices is used in Section 3.0 of the AMD to develop the Failure/Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) and to determine the fuel releases (source terms) resulting from the potential Space Shuttle/IUS accidents throughout the missions.

  2. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit final safety analysis report (LWRHU-FSAR): Volume 2: Accident Model Document (AMD)

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.W.

    1988-10-01

    The purpose of this volume of the LWRHU SAR, the Accident Model Document (AMD), are to: Identify all malfunctions, both singular and multiple, which can occur during the complete mission profile that could lead to release outside the clad of the radioisotopic material contained therein; Provide estimates of occurrence probabilities associated with these various accidents; Evaluate the response of the LWRHU (or its components) to the resultant accident environments; and Associate the potential event history with test data or analysis to determine the potential interaction of the released radionuclides with the biosphere.

  3. Final safety analysis report for the Galileo Mission: Volume 2: Book 1, Accident model document

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-12-15

    The Accident Model Document (AMD) is the second volume of the three volume Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR) for the Galileo outer planetary space science mission. This mission employs Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) as the prime electrical power sources for the spacecraft. Galileo will be launched into Earth orbit using the Space Shuttle and will use the Inertial Upper Stage (IUS) booster to place the spacecraft into an Earth escape trajectory. The RTG's employ silicon-germanium thermoelectric couples to produce electricity from the heat energy that results from the decay of the radioisotope fuel, Plutonium-238, used in the RTG heat source. The heat source configuration used in the RTG's is termed General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS), and the RTG's are designated GPHS-RTGs. The use of radioactive material in these missions necessitates evaluations of the radiological risks that may be encountered by launch complex personnel as well as by the Earth's general population resulting from postulated malfunctions or failures occurring in the mission operations. The FSAR presents the results of a rigorous safety assessment, including substantial analyses and testing, of the launch and deployment of the RTGs for the Galileo mission. This AMD is a summary of the potential accident and failure sequences which might result in fuel release, the analysis and testing methods employed, and the predicted source terms. Each source term consists of a quantity of fuel released, the location of release and the physical characteristics of the fuel released. Each source term has an associated probability of occurrence. 27 figs., 11 tabs.

  4. Cold Vacuum Drying (CVD) Facility Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    PIEPHO, M.G.

    1999-10-20

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Annex B, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR).'' All assumptions, parameters and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the FSAR.

  5. Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    CROWE, R.D.

    1999-09-09

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support ''HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety, Analysis Report, Annex A,'' ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  6. Canister Storage Building (CSB) Design Basis Accident Analysis Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    CROWE, R.D.; PIEPHO, M.G.

    2000-03-23

    This document provided the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report''. All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  7. Canister storage building design basis accident analysis documentation

    SciTech Connect

    KOPELIC, S.D.

    1999-02-25

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report, Annex A, ''Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the Canister Storage Building Final Safety Analysis Report.

  8. ANS severe accident program overview & planning document

    SciTech Connect

    Taleyarkhan, R.P.

    1995-09-01

    The Advanced Neutron Source (ANS) severe accident document was developed to provide a concise and coherent mechanism for presenting the ANS SAP goals, a strategy satisfying these goals, a succinct summary of the work done to date, and what needs to be done in the future to ensure timely licensability. Guidance was received from various bodies [viz., panel members of the ANS severe accident workshop and safety review committee, Department of Energy (DOE) orders, Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requirements for ALWRs and advanced reactors, ACRS comments, world-wide trends] were utilized to set up the ANS-relevant SAS goals and strategy. An in-containment worker protection goal was also set up to account for the routine experimenters and other workers within containment. The strategy for achieving the goals is centered upon closing the severe accident issues that have the potential for becoming certification issues when assessed against realistic bounding events. Realistic bounding events are defined as events with an occurrency frequency greater than 10{sup {minus}6}/y. Currently, based upon the level-1 probabilistic risk assessment studies, the realistic bounding events for application for issue closure are flow blockage of fuel element coolant channels, and rapid depressurization-related accidents.

  9. Severe Accident Test Station Design Document

    SciTech Connect

    Snead, Mary A.; Yan, Yong; Howell, Michael; Keiser, James R.; Terrani, Kurt A.

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of the ORNL severe accident test station (SATS) is to provide a platform for evaluation of advanced fuels under projected beyond design basis accident (BDBA) conditions. The SATS delivers the capability to map the behavior of advanced fuels concepts under accident scenarios across various temperature and pressure profiles, steam and steam-hydrogen gas mixtures, and thermal shock. The overall facility will include parallel capabilities for examination of fuels and irradiated materials (in-cell) and non-irradiated materials (out-of-cell) at BDBA conditions as well as design basis accident (DBA) or loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. Also, a supporting analytical infrastructure to provide the data-needs for the fuel-modeling components of the Fuel Cycle Research and Development (FCRD) program will be put in place in a parallel manner. This design report contains the information for the first, second and third phases of design and construction of the SATS. The first phase consisted of the design and construction of an out-of-cell BDBA module intended for examination of non-irradiated materials. The second phase of this work was to construct the BDBA in-cell module to test irradiated fuels and materials as well as the module for DBA (i.e. LOCA) testing out-of-cell, The third phase was to build the in-cell DBA module. The details of the design constraints and requirements for the in-cell facility have been closely captured during the deployment of the out-of-cell SATS modules to ensure effective future implementation of the in-cell modules.

  10. Cold Vacuum Drying facility design basis accident analysis documentation

    SciTech Connect

    CROWE, R.D.

    2000-08-08

    This document provides the detailed accident analysis to support HNF-3553, Annex B, Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report.'' All assumptions, parameters, and models used to provide the analysis of the design basis accidents are documented to support the conclusions in the FSAR. The calculations in this document address the design basis accidents (DBAs) selected for analysis in HNF-3553, ''Spent Nuclear Fuel Project Final Safety Analysis Report'', Annex B, ''Cold Vacuum Drying Facility Final Safety Analysis Report.'' The objective is to determine the quantity of radioactive particulate available for release at any point during processing at the Cold Vacuum Drying Facility (CVDF) and to use that quantity to determine the amount of radioactive material released during the DBAs. The radioactive material released is used to determine dose consequences to receptors at four locations, and the dose consequences are compared with the appropriate evaluation guidelines and release limits to ascertain the need for preventive and mitigative controls.

  11. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit Safety Analysis Report (LWRHU-SAR). Volume II. Accident model document

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, E.W.

    1985-10-01

    Purposes of this volume (AMD), are to: Identify all malfunctions, both singular and multiple, which can occur during the complete mission profile that could lead to release outside the clad of the radioisotopic material contained therein; provide estimates of occurrence probabilities associated with these various accidents; evaluate the response of the LWRHU (or its components) to the resultant accident environments; and associate the potential event history with test data or analysis to determine the potential interaction of the released radionuclides with the biosphere.

  12. Documentation for Three Wake Vortex Model Data Sets from Simulation of Flight 587 Wake Vortex Encounter Accident Case

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Switzer, George F.

    2008-01-01

    This document contains a general description for data sets of a wake vortex system in a turbulent environment. The turbulence and thermal stratification of the environment are representative of the conditions on November 12, 2001 near John F. Kennedy International Airport. The simulation assumes no ambient winds. The full three dimensional simulation of the wake vortex system from a Boeing 747 predicts vortex circulation levels at 80% of their initial value at the time of the proposed vortex encounter. The linked vortex oval orientation showed no twisting, and the oval elevations at the widest point were about 20 meters higher than where the vortex pair joined. Fred Proctor of NASA?s Langley Research Center presented the results from this work at the NTSB public hearing that started 29 October 2002. This document contains a description of each data set including: variables, coordinate system, data format, and sample plots. Also included are instructions on how to read the data.

  13. Modelling Accident Tolerant Fuel Concepts

    SciTech Connect

    Hales, Jason Dean; Gamble, Kyle Allan Lawrence

    2016-05-01

    The catastrophic events that occurred at the Fukushima-Daiichi nuclear power plant in 2011 have led to widespread interest in research of alternative fuels and claddings that are proposed to be accident tolerant. The United States Department of Energy (DOE) through its Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program has funded an Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) High Impact Problem (HIP). The ATF HIP is a three-year project to perform research on two accident tolerant concepts. The final outcome of the ATF HIP will be an in-depth report to the DOE Advanced Fuels Campaign (AFC) giving a recommendation on whether either of the two concepts should be included in their lead test assembly scheduled for placement into a commercial reactor in 2022. The two ATF concepts under investigation in the HIP are uranium silicide fuel and iron-chromium-aluminum (FeCrAl) alloy cladding. Utilizing the expertise of three national laboratory participants (Idaho National Laboratory, Los Alamos National Laboratory, and Argonne National Laboratory), a comprehensive multiscale approach to modeling is being used that includes atomistic modeling, molecular dynamics, rate theory, phase-field, and fuel performance simulations. Model development and fuel performance analysis are critical since a full suite of experimental studies will not be complete before AFC must prioritize concepts for focused development. In this paper, we present simulations of the two proposed accident tolerance fuel systems: U3Si2 fuel with Zircaloy-4 cladding, and UO2 fuel with FeCrAl cladding. Sensitivity analyses are completed using Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota software to determine which input parameters (e.g., fuel specific heat) have the greatest influence on the output metrics of interest (e.g., fuel centerline temperature). We also outline the multiscale modelling approach being employed. Considerable additional work is required prior to preparing the recommendation report for the Advanced

  14. Generic safety documentation model

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.

    1994-04-01

    This document is intended to be a resource for preparers of safety documentation for Sandia National Laboratories, New Mexico facilities. It provides standardized discussions of some topics that are generic to most, if not all, Sandia/NM facilities safety documents. The material provides a ``core`` upon which to develop facility-specific safety documentation. The use of the information in this document will reduce the cost of safety document preparation and improve consistency of information.

  15. Supplementary documentation for an Environmental Impact Statement regarding the Pantex Plant: dispersion analysis for postulated accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Dewart, J.M.; Bowen, B.M.; Elder, J.C.

    1982-12-01

    This report documents work performed in support of preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) regarding the Department of Energy (DOE) Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas. The report covers the calculation of atmospheric dispersion and deposition of plutonium following postulated nonnuclear detonations of nuclear weapons. Downwind total integrated air concentrations and ground deposition values for each postulated accident are presented. The model used to perform these calculations is the DIFOUT model, developed at Sandia National Laboratories in conjunction with Operation Roller Coaster, a field experiment involving sampling and measurements of nuclear material dispersed by four detonations. The DIFOUT model is described along with the detonation cloud sizes, aerosol parameters, and meteorological data used as input data. A verification study of the DIFOUT model has also been performed; the results are presented.

  16. Computer Model Documentation Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Bureau of Standards (DOC), Washington, DC. Inst. for Computer Sciences and Technology.

    These guidelines for communicating effectively the details of computer model design and operation to persons with varying interests in a model recommend the development of four different types of manuals to meet the needs of managers, users, analysts and programmers. The guidelines for preparing a management summary manual suggest a broad spectrum…

  17. Modeling secondary accidents identified by traffic shock waves.

    PubMed

    Junhua, Wang; Boya, Liu; Lanfang, Zhang; Ragland, David R

    2016-02-01

    The high potential for occurrence and the negative consequences of secondary accidents make them an issue of great concern affecting freeway safety. Using accident records from a three-year period together with California interstate freeway loop data, a dynamic method for more accurate classification based on the traffic shock wave detecting method was used to identify secondary accidents. Spatio-temporal gaps between the primary and secondary accident were proven be fit via a mixture of Weibull and normal distribution. A logistic regression model was developed to investigate major factors contributing to secondary accident occurrence. Traffic shock wave speed and volume at the occurrence of a primary accident were explicitly considered in the model, as a secondary accident is defined as an accident that occurs within the spatio-temporal impact scope of the primary accident. Results show that the shock waves originating in the wake of a primary accident have a more significant impact on the likelihood of a secondary accident occurrence than the effects of traffic volume. Primary accidents with long durations can significantly increase the possibility of secondary accidents. Unsafe speed and weather are other factors contributing to secondary crash occurrence. It is strongly suggested that when police or rescue personnel arrive at the scene of an accident, they should not suddenly block, decrease, or unblock the traffic flow, but instead endeavor to control traffic in a smooth and controlled manner. Also it is important to reduce accident processing time to reduce the risk of secondary accident.

  18. [Chest modelling and automotive accidents].

    PubMed

    Trosseille, Xavier

    2011-11-01

    Automobile development is increasingly based on mathematical modeling. Accurate models of the human body are now available and serve to develop new means of protection. These models used to consist of rigid, articulated bodies but are now made of several million finite elements. They are now capable of predicting some risks of injury. To develop these models, sophisticated tests were conducted on human cadavers. For example, chest modeling started with material characterization and led to complete validation in the automobile environment. Model personalization, based on medical imaging, will permit studies of the behavior and tolerances of the entire population.

  19. [Integration of hospital social services in the rehabilitation of accident patients by the statutory accident insurance. Results of a one-year model project].

    PubMed

    Lukasczik, M; Geyer, S; Neuderth, S; Gerlich, C; Weis, I; Raiber, I; Weber-Falkensammer, H; Vogel, H

    2008-02-01

    In accident patient care, there is a substantial overlap between the scope of duties of hospital social services and tasks fulfilled by the German statutory accident insurances' visiting staff that regularly takes care of accident patients. Therefore, a project on the integration of hospital social services into the organizational structures of the German statutory accident insurance was initiated which aimed at optimising communication and realising synergy effects. A formative evaluation of the project was conducted that provided process- and outcome-related data for a comprehensive evaluation of the strengths and potentials of the project. Report forms containing patient-related information were completed by hospital social services. Forms were evaluated in terms of their utility for case management by accident insurance administrators using a checklist. Project implementation and procedures were documented and evaluated using semi-structured interviews with social services staff and accident insurance employees. Through the model, a comprehensive care for accident patients could be reached. In one third of all cases reviewed, rehabilitation management could be improved by including hospital social services. Moreover, in one third of all cases, care-related activities initiated by accident insurance funds could be reduced by involving local hospital social services. The report form used by hospital social services was evaluated as a useful tool in the context of patient care and rehabilitation management. The model was evaluated by interview participants as a highly targeted approach in accident patients' care management. Implications of the study for improving health care are discussed.

  20. Documentation for the Waste Reduction Model (WARM)

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This page describes the WARM documentation files and provides links to all documentation files associated with EPA’s Waste Reduction Model (WARM). The page includes a brief summary of the chapters documenting the greenhouse gas emission and energy factors.

  1. Consumer Vehicle Choice Model Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Changzheng; Greene, David L

    2012-08-01

    In response to the Fuel Economy and Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions standards, automobile manufacturers will need to adopt new technologies to improve the fuel economy of their vehicles and to reduce the overall GHG emissions of their fleets. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed the Optimization Model for reducing GHGs from Automobiles (OMEGA) to estimate the costs and benefits of meeting GHG emission standards through different technology packages. However, the model does not simulate the impact that increased technology costs will have on vehicle sales or on consumer surplus. As the model documentation states, “While OMEGA incorporates functions which generally minimize the cost of meeting a specified carbon dioxide (CO2) target, it is not an economic simulation model which adjusts vehicle sales in response to the cost of the technology added to each vehicle.” Changes in the mix of vehicles sold, caused by the costs and benefits of added fuel economy technologies, could make it easier or more difficult for manufacturers to meet fuel economy and emissions standards, and impacts on consumer surplus could raise the costs or augment the benefits of the standards. Because the OMEGA model does not presently estimate such impacts, the EPA is investigating the feasibility of developing an adjunct to the OMEGA model to make such estimates. This project is an effort to develop and test a candidate model. The project statement of work spells out the key functional requirements for the new model.

  2. Modelling road accidents: An approach using structural time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-09-01

    In this paper, the trend of road accidents in Malaysia for the years 2001 until 2012 was modelled using a structural time series approach. The structural time series model was identified using a stepwise method, and the residuals for each model were tested. The best-fitted model was chosen based on the smallest Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and prediction error variance. In order to check the quality of the model, a data validation procedure was performed by predicting the monthly number of road accidents for the year 2012. Results indicate that the best specification of the structural time series model to represent road accidents is the local level with a seasonal model.

  3. A catastrophe-theory model for simulating behavioral accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Souder, W.E.

    1988-01-01

    Behavioral accidents are a particular type of accident. They are caused by inappropriate individual behaviors and faulty reactions. Catastrophe theory is a means for mathematically modeling the dynamic processes that underlie behavioral accidents. Based on a comprehensive data base of mining accidents, a computerized catastrophe model has been developed by the Bureau of Mines. This model systematically links individual psychological, group behavioral, and mine environmental variables with other accident causing factors. It answers several longstanding questions about why some normally safe behaving persons may spontaneously engage in unsafe acts that have high risks of serious injury. Field tests with the model indicate that it has three imnportant uses: it can be used as a effective training aid for increasing employee safety consciousness; it can be used as a management laboratory for testing decision alternatives and policies; and it can be used to help design the most effective work teams.

  4. Accident prediction model for railway-highway interfaces.

    PubMed

    Oh, Jutaek; Washington, Simon P; Nam, Doohee

    2006-03-01

    Considerable past research has explored relationships between vehicle accidents and geometric design and operation of road sections, but relatively little research has examined factors that contribute to accidents at railway-highway crossings. Between 1998 and 2002 in Korea, about 95% of railway accidents occurred at highway-rail grade crossings, resulting in 402 accidents, of which about 20% resulted in fatalities. These statistics suggest that efforts to reduce crashes at these locations may significantly reduce crash costs. The objective of this paper is to examine factors associated with railroad crossing crashes. Various statistical models are used to examine the relationships between crossing accidents and features of crossings. The paper also compares accident models developed in the United States and the safety effects of crossing elements obtained using Korea data. Crashes were observed to increase with total traffic volume and average daily train volumes. The proximity of crossings to commercial areas and the distance of the train detector from crossings are associated with larger numbers of accidents, as is the time duration between the activation of warning signals and gates. The unique contributions of the paper are the application of the gamma probability model to deal with underdispersion and the insights obtained regarding railroad crossing related vehicle crashes.

  5. An alternative accident prediction model for highway-rail interfaces.

    PubMed

    Austin, Ross D; Carson, Jodi L

    2002-01-01

    Safety levels at highway/rail interfaces continue to be of major concern despite an ever-increasing focus on improved design and appurtenance application practices. Despite the encouraging trend towards improved safety, accident frequencies remain high, many of which result in fatalities. More than half of these accidents occur at public crossings, where active warning devices (i.e. gates, lights, bells, etc.) are in place and functioning properly. This phenomenon speaks directly to the need to re-examine both safety evaluation (i.e. accident prediction) methods and design practices at highway-rail crossings. With respect to earlier developed accident prediction methods, the Peabody Dimmick Formula, the New Hampshire Index and the National Cooperative Highway Research Program (NCHRP) Hazard Index, all lack descriptive capabilities due to their limited number of explanatory variables. Further, each has unique limitations that are detailed in this paper. The US Department of Transportation's (USDOT) Accident Prediction Formula, which is most widely, also has limitations related to the complexity of the three-stage formula and its decline in accident prediction model accuracy over time. This investigation resulted in the development of an alternate highway-rail crossing accident prediction model, using negative binomial regression that shows great promise. The benefit to be gained through the application of this alternate model is (1) a greatly simplified, one-step estimation process; (2) comparable supporting data requirements and (3) interpretation of both the magnitude and direction of the effect of the factors found to significantly influence highway-rail crossing accident frequencies.

  6. Creating, documenting and sharing network models.

    PubMed

    Crook, Sharon M; Bednar, James A; Berger, Sandra; Cannon, Robert; Davison, Andrew P; Djurfeldt, Mikael; Eppler, Jochen; Kriener, Birgit; Furber, Steve; Graham, Bruce; Plesser, Hans E; Schwabe, Lars; Smith, Leslie; Steuber, Volker; van Albada, Sacha

    2012-01-01

    As computational neuroscience matures, many simulation environments are available that are useful for neuronal network modeling. However, methods for successfully documenting models for publication and for exchanging models and model components among these projects are still under development. Here we briefly review existing software and applications for network model creation, documentation and exchange. Then we discuss a few of the larger issues facing the field of computational neuroscience regarding network modeling and suggest solutions to some of these problems, concentrating in particular on standardized network model terminology, notation, and descriptions and explicit documentation of model scaling. We hope this will enable and encourage computational neuroscientists to share their models more systematically in the future.

  7. Modeling electronic documentation as a communication system.

    PubMed

    Carrington, Jane M; Effken, Judith A

    2007-10-11

    The purpose of this poster is to describe a new research model that describes a novel way to studying the effectiveness of electronic documentation as a communication system. The model, which has been adapted from Gerbner's (1956) General Communication Model and Effken's (2003) Informatics Research Organizing Model (IROM), illustrates both the events that occur during the communication process and their relationships.

  8. World energy projection system: Model documentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1992-06-01

    The World Energy Project System (WEPS) is an accounting framework that incorporates projects from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product) and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by hydropower, geothermal, coal, and natural gas to produce projections of world energy consumption published annually by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the International Energy Outlook (IEO). Two independently documented models presented in Figure 1, the Oil Market Simulation (OMS) model and the World Integrated Nuclear Evaluation System (WINES), provide projections of oil and nuclear power consumption published in the IEO. Output from a third independently documented model, and the International Coal Trade Model (ICTM), is not published in the IEO but is used in WEPS as a supply check on projections of world coal consumption produced by WEPS and published in the IEO. A WEPS model of natural gas production documented in this report provides the same type of implicit supply check on the WEPS projections of world natural gas consumption published in the IEO. Two additional models are included in Figure 1, the OPEC Capacity model and the Non-OPEC Oil Production model. These WEPS models provide inputs to the OMS model and are documented in this report.

  9. Generation IV benchmarking of TRISO fuel performance models under accident conditions: Modeling input data

    SciTech Connect

    Collin, Blaise P.

    2014-09-01

    This document presents the benchmark plan for the calculation of particle fuel performance on safety testing experiments that are representative of operational accidental transients. The benchmark is dedicated to the modeling of fission product release under accident conditions by fuel performance codes from around the world, and the subsequent comparison to post-irradiation experiment (PIE) data from the modeled heating tests. The accident condition benchmark is divided into three parts: the modeling of a simplified benchmark problem to assess potential numerical calculation issues at low fission product release; the modeling of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis safety testing experiments; and, the comparison of the AGR-1 and HFR-EU1bis modeling results with PIE data. The simplified benchmark case, thereafter named NCC (Numerical Calculation Case), is derived from ''Case 5'' of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Coordinated Research Program (CRP) on coated particle fuel technology [IAEA 2012]. It is included so participants can evaluate their codes at low fission product release. ''Case 5'' of the IAEA CRP-6 showed large code-to-code discrepancies in the release of fission products, which were attributed to ''effects of the numerical calculation method rather than the physical model''[IAEA 2012]. The NCC is therefore intended to check if these numerical effects subsist. The first two steps imply the involvement of the benchmark participants with a modeling effort following the guidelines and recommendations provided by this document. The third step involves the collection of the modeling results by Idaho National Laboratory (INL) and the comparison of these results with the available PIE data. The objective of this document is to provide all necessary input data to model the benchmark cases, and to give some methodology guidelines and recommendations in order to make all results suitable for comparison with each other. The participants should read this document

  10. A retrospective quality assessment of pre-hospital emergency medical documentation in motor vehicle accidents in south-eastern Norway

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Few studies have evaluated pre-hospital documentation quality. We retrospectively assessed emergency medical service (EMS) documentation of key logistic, physiologic, and mechanistic variables in motor vehicle accidents (MVAs). Methods Records from police, Emergency Medical Communication Centers (EMCC), ground and air ambulances were retrospectively collected for 189 MVAs involving 392 patients. Documentation of Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), respiratory rate (RR), and systolic blood pressure (SBP) was classified as exact values, RTS categories, clinical descriptions enabling post-hoc inference of RTS categories, or missing. The distribution of values of exact versus inferred RTS categories were compared (Chi-square test for trend). Results 25% of ground and 11% of air ambulance records were unretrieveable. Patient name, birth date, and transport destination was documented in >96% of ambulance records and 81% of EMCC reports. Only 54% of patient encounter times were transmitted to the EMCC, but 77% were documented in ground and 96% in air ambulance records. Ground ambulance records documented exact values of GCS in 48% and SBP in 53% of cases, exact RR in 10%, and RR RTS categories in 54%. Clinical descriptions made post-hoc inference of RTS categories possible in another 49% of cases for GCS, 26% for RR, and 20% for SBP. Air ambulance records documented exact values of GCS in 89% and SBP in 84% of cases, exact RR in 7% and RR RTS categories in 80%. Overall, for lower RTS categories of GCS, RR and SBP the proportion of actual documented values to inferred values increased (All: p < 0.001). Also, documentation of repeated assessment was more frequent for low RTS categories of GCS, RR, and SBP (All: p < 0.001). Mechanism of injury was documented in 80% of cases by ground and 92% of cases by air ambulance. Conclusion EMS documentation of logistic and mechanistic variables was adequate. Patient physiology was frequently documented only as descriptive text. Our

  11. A critical review of macro models for road accidents.

    PubMed

    Hakim, S; Shefer, D; Hakkert, A S; Hocherman, I

    1991-10-01

    This paper presents a critical review of state-of-the-art macro models for road accidents. Such a review is meant to identify and establish the significance of policy and socioeconomic variables affecting the level of road accidents. The aim is to identify those variables associated with effective policies and interventions to enable decision makers to improve the level of road safety. The variables that appear to affect the number of fatalities or injuries are: vehicle miles travelled (VMT), vehicle population, income (in its various forms), percentage of young drivers, intervention policies such as speed limits, periodic vehicle inspection, and minimum alcohol-drinking age. Viewed critically, the state-of-the-art models being used to explain and predict road accidents are still deficient. One possible approach to correcting this deficiency draws from consumer utility theory, using analytical models built on a newly constructed theoretical framework. Success in estimating such models may improve predictions of road accidents, thus demonstrating the comparative cost effectiveness of alternative intervention policies.

  12. Catastrophe model of the accident process, safety climate, and anxiety.

    PubMed

    Guastello, Stephen J; Lynn, Mark

    2014-04-01

    This study aimed (a) to address the evidence for situational specificity in the connection between safety climate to occupational accidents, (b) to resolve similar issues between anxiety and accidents, (c) to expand and develop the concept of safety climate to include a wider range of organizational constructs, (d) to assess a cusp catastrophe model for occupational accidents where safety climate and anxiety are treated as bifurcation variables, and environ-mental hazards are asymmetry variables. Bifurcation, or trigger variables can have a positive or negative effect on outcomes, depending on the levels of asymmetry, or background variables. The participants were 1262 production employees of two steel manufacturing facilities who completed a survey that measured safety management, anxiety, subjective danger, dysregulation, stressors and hazards. Nonlinear regression analyses showed, for this industry, that the accident process was explained by a cusp catastrophe model in which safety management and anxiety were bifurcation variables, and hazards, age and experience were asymmetry variables. The accuracy of the cusp model (R2 = .72) exceeded that of the next best log-linear model (R2 = .08) composed from the same survey variables. The results are thought to generalize to any industry where serious injuries could occur, although situationally specific effects should be anticipated as well.

  13. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 2 models

    SciTech Connect

    Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.; Rempe, J.L.

    1996-03-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Accident Sequence Precursor program pursues the ultimate objective of performing risk significant evaluations on operational events (precursors) occurring in commercial nuclear power plants. To achieve this objective, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research is supporting the development of simple probabilistic risk assessment models for all commercial nuclear power plants (NPP) in the U.S. Presently, only simple Level 1 plant models have been developed which estimate core damage frequencies. In order to provide a true risk perspective, the consequences associated with postulated core damage accidents also need to be considered. With the objective of performing risk evaluations in an integrated and consistent manner, a linked event tree approach which propagates the front end results to back end was developed. This approach utilizes simple plant models that analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude and timing of a radioactive release to the environment, and calculate the consequences for a given release. Detailed models and results from previous studies, such as the NUREG-1150 study, are used to quantify these simple models. These simple models are then linked to the existing Level 1 models, and are evaluated using the SAPHIRE code. To demonstrate the approach, prototypic models have been developed for a boiling water reactor, Peach Bottom, and a pressurized water reactor, Zion.

  14. Accident sequence precursor analysis level 2/3 model development

    SciTech Connect

    Lui, C.H.; Galyean, W.J.; Brownson, D.A.

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program currently uses simple Level 1 models to assess the conditional core damage probability for operational events occurring in commercial nuclear power plants (NPP). Since not all accident sequences leading to core damage will result in the same radiological consequences, it is necessary to develop simple Level 2/3 models that can be used to analyze the response of the NPP containment structure in the context of a core damage accident, estimate the magnitude of the resulting radioactive releases to the environment, and calculate the consequences associated with these releases. The simple Level 2/3 model development work was initiated in 1995, and several prototype models have been completed. Once developed, these simple Level 2/3 models are linked to the simple Level 1 models to provide risk perspectives for operational events. This paper describes the methods implemented for the development of these simple Level 2/3 ASP models, and the linkage process to the existing Level 1 models.

  15. Short-term hydroelectric generation model. Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Energy Information Administration`s (EIA) Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models.

  16. A catastrophe-theory model for simulating behavioral accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Souder, W.E.

    1988-01-01

    Based on a comprehensive data base of mining accidents, a computerized catastrophe model has been developed by the Bureau of Mines. This model systematically links individual psychological, group behavioral, and mine environmental variables with other accident causing factors. It answers several longstanding questions about why some normally safe behaving persons may spontaneously engage in unsafe acts that have high risks of serious injury. Field tests with the model indicate that it has three important uses: It can be used as an effective training aid for increasing employee safety consciousness; it can be used as a management laboratory for testing decision alternatives and policies; and it can be used to help design the most effective work teams.

  17. An application of probabilistic safety assessment methods to model aircraft systems and accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Martinez-Guridi, G.; Hall, R.E.; Fullwood, R.R.

    1998-08-01

    A case study modeling the thrust reverser system (TRS) in the context of the fatal accident of a Boeing 767 is presented to illustrate the application of Probabilistic Safety Assessment methods. A simplified risk model consisting of an event tree with supporting fault trees was developed to represent the progression of the accident, taking into account the interaction between the TRS and the operating crew during the accident, and the findings of the accident investigation. A feasible sequence of events leading to the fatal accident was identified. Several insights about the TRS and the accident were obtained by applying PSA methods. Changes proposed for the TRS also are discussed.

  18. Supplementary documentation for an Environmental Impact Statement regarding the Pantex Plant: radiological consequences of immediate inhalation of plutonium dispersed by postulated accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Elder, J.C.; Olsher, R.H.; Graf, J.M.

    1982-12-01

    This report documents work performed in support of preparation of an Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) regarding the Department of Energy's (DOE) Pantex Plant near Amarillo, Texas. It describes methods used to estimate potential health consequences offsite resulting from inhalation of plutonium dispersed by each of several postulated accidents. The primary topic of this report is the delayed health effects of the plutonium in a nonnuclear detonation debris inhaled directly by members of the population in the cloud path. The expected form and size of the plutonium particles are derived from experimental data obatined in the Roller Coaster test series of 1963. Retention characteristics based on the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP) Task Group Lung Model and organ dose calculations based on a modified computer model are described. Health risk estimates based on organ dose are made using appropriate risk factors recommended by international radiation protection organizations. The relative seriousness of each accident at each alternative site is assessed on the basis of the health risk estiamtes.

  19. Accident prediction model for public highway-rail grade crossings.

    PubMed

    Lu, Pan; Tolliver, Denver

    2016-05-01

    Considerable research has focused on roadway accident frequency analysis, but relatively little research has examined safety evaluation at highway-rail grade crossings. Highway-rail grade crossings are critical spatial locations of utmost importance for transportation safety because traffic crashes at highway-rail grade crossings are often catastrophic with serious consequences. The Poisson regression model has been employed to analyze vehicle accident frequency as a good starting point for many years. The most commonly applied variations of Poisson including negative binomial, and zero-inflated Poisson. These models are used to deal with common crash data issues such as over-dispersion (sample variance is larger than the sample mean) and preponderance of zeros (low sample mean and small sample size). On rare occasions traffic crash data have been shown to be under-dispersed (sample variance is smaller than the sample mean) and traditional distributions such as Poisson or negative binomial cannot handle under-dispersion well. The objective of this study is to investigate and compare various alternate highway-rail grade crossing accident frequency models that can handle the under-dispersion issue. The contributions of the paper are two-fold: (1) application of probability models to deal with under-dispersion issues and (2) obtain insights regarding to vehicle crashes at public highway-rail grade crossings.

  20. Effects of quenched randomness induced by car accidents on traffic flow in a cellular automata model.

    PubMed

    Yang, Xian-Qing; Ma, Yu-Qiang; Zhao, Yue-Min

    2004-10-01

    In this paper we numerically study the impact of quenched disorder induced by car accidents on traffic flow in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model. Car accidents occur when the necessary conditions proposed by [J. Phys. A 30, 3329 (1997)

  1. WHEN MODEL MEETS REALITY – A REVIEW OF SPAR LEVEL 2 MODEL AGAINST FUKUSHIMA ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Zhegang Ma

    2013-09-01

    The Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) models are a set of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) models used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to evaluate the risk of operations at U.S. nuclear power plants and provide inputs to risk informed regulatory process. A small number of SPAR Level 2 models have been developed mostly for feasibility study purpose. They extend the Level 1 models to include containment systems, group plant damage states, and model containment phenomenology and accident progression in containment event trees. A severe earthquake and tsunami hit the eastern coast of Japan in March 2011 and caused significant damages on the reactors in Fukushima Daiichi site. Station blackout (SBO), core damage, containment damage, hydrogen explosion, and intensive radioactivity release, which have been previous analyzed and assumed as postulated accident progression in PRA models, now occurred with various degrees in the multi-units Fukushima Daiichi site. This paper reviews and compares a typical BWR SPAR Level 2 model with the “real” accident progressions and sequences occurred in Fukushima Daiichi Units 1, 2, and 3. It shows that the SPAR Level 2 model is a robust PRA model that could very reasonably describe the accident progression for a real and complicated nuclear accident in the world. On the other hand, the comparison shows that the SPAR model could be enhanced by incorporating some accident characteristics for better representation of severe accident progression.

  2. Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 1: Model documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, J.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

    1983-01-01

    The volume 1, of a 3 volume technical memoranda which contains a documentation of the GLAS Fourth Order General Circulation Model is presented. Volume 1 contains the documentation, description of the stratospheric/tropospheric extension, user's guide, climatological boundary data, and some climate simulation studies.

  3. Documenting AUTOGEN and APGEN Model Files

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gladden, Roy E.; Khanampompan, Teerapat; Fisher, Forest W.; DelGuericio, Chris c.

    2008-01-01

    A computer program called "autogen hypertext map generator" satisfies a need for documenting and assisting in visualization of, and navigation through, model files used in the AUTOGEN and APGEN software mentioned in the two immediately preceding articles. This program parses autogen script files, autogen model files, PERL scripts, and apgen activity-definition files and produces a hypertext map of the files to aid in the navigation of the model. This program also provides a facility for adding notes and descriptions, beyond what is in the source model represented by the hypertext map. Further, this program provides access to a summary of the model through variable, function, sub routine, activity and resource declarations as well as providing full access to the source model and source code. The use of the tool enables easy access to the declarations and the ability to traverse routines and calls while analyzing the model.

  4. Dust mobilization and transport modeling for loss of vacuum accidents

    SciTech Connect

    P.W. Humrickhouse; J.P. Sharpe

    2007-10-01

    We develop a general continuum fluid dynamic model for dust transport in loss of vacuum accidents in fusion energy systems. The relationship between this general approach and established particle transport methods is clarified, in particular the relationship between the seemingly disparate treatments of aerosol dynamics and Lagrangian particle tracking. Constitutive equations for granular flow are found to be inadequate for prediction of mobilization, as these models essentially impose a condition of flow from the outset. Experiments confirm that at low shear, settled dust piles behave more like a continuum solid, and suitable solid models will be required to predict the onset of dust mobilization.

  5. Documentation of TRU biological transport model (BIOTRAN)

    SciTech Connect

    Gallegos, A.F.; Garcia, B.J.; Sutton, C.M.

    1980-01-01

    Inclusive of Appendices, this document describes the purpose, rationale, construction, and operation of a biological transport model (BIOTRAN). This model is used to predict the flow of transuranic elements (TRU) through specified plant and animal environments using biomass as a vector. The appendices are: (A) Flows of moisture, biomass, and TRU; (B) Intermediate variables affecting flows; (C) Mnemonic equivalents (code) for variables; (D) Variable library (code); (E) BIOTRAN code (Fortran); (F) Plants simulated; (G) BIOTRAN code documentation; (H) Operating instructions for BIOTRAN code. The main text is presented with a specific format which uses a minimum of space, yet is adequate for tracking most relationships from their first appearance to their formulation in the code. Because relationships are treated individually in this manner, and rely heavily on Appendix material for understanding, it is advised that the reader familiarize himself with these materials before proceeding with the main text.

  6. Markov Model of Severe Accident Progression and Management

    SciTech Connect

    Bari, R.A.; Cheng, L.; Cuadra,A.; Ginsberg,T.; Lehner,J.; Martinez-Guridi,G.; Mubayi,V.; Pratt,W.T.; Yue, M.

    2012-06-25

    The earthquake and tsunami that hit the nuclear power plants at the Fukushima Daiichi site in March 2011 led to extensive fuel damage, including possible fuel melting, slumping, and relocation at the affected reactors. A so-called feed-and-bleed mode of reactor cooling was initially established to remove decay heat. The plan was to eventually switch over to a recirculation cooling system. Failure of feed and bleed was a possibility during the interim period. Furthermore, even if recirculation was established, there was a possibility of its subsequent failure. Decay heat has to be sufficiently removed to prevent further core degradation. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions and to have a tool for potential future hypothetical evaluations of accidents at other nuclear facilities, a Markov model of the state of the reactors was constructed in the immediate aftermath of the accident and was executed under different assumptions of potential future challenges. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accident. The work began in mid-March and continued until mid-May 2011. The analysis had the following goals: (1) To provide an overall framework for describing possible future states of the damaged reactors; (2) To permit an impact analysis of 'what-if' scenarios that could lead to more severe outcomes; (3) To determine approximate probabilities of alternative end-states under various assumptions about failure and repair times of cooling systems; (4) To infer the reliability requirements of closed loop cooling systems needed to achieve stable core end-states and (5) To establish the importance for the results of the various cooling system and physical phenomenological parameters via sensitivity calculations.

  7. Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM): reactor-accident assessment methods. Vol. 2

    SciTech Connect

    Poeton, R.W.; Moeller, M.P.; Laughlin, G.J.; Desrosiers, A.E.

    1983-05-01

    As part of the continuing emphasis on emergency preparedness, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) sponsored the development of a rapid dose assessment system by Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). This system, the Interactive Rapid Dose Assessment Model (IRDAM) is a micro-computer based program for rapidly assessing the radiological impact of accidents at nuclear power plants. This document describes the technical bases for IRDAM including methods, models and assumptions used in calculations. IRDAM calculates whole body (5-cm depth) and infant thyroid doses at six fixed downwind distances between 500 and 20,000 meters. Radionuclides considered primarily consist of noble gases and radioiodines. In order to provide a rapid assessment capability consistent with the capacity of the Osborne-1 computer, certain simplifying approximations and assumptions are made. These are described, along with default values (assumptions used in the absence of specific input) in the text of this document. Two companion volumes to this one provide additional information on IRDAM. The user's Guide (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 1) describes the setup and operation of equipment necessary to run IRDAM. Scenarios for Comparing Dose Assessment Models (NUREG/CR-3012, Volume 3) provides the results of calculations made by IRDAM and other models for specific accident scenarios.

  8. Efficient modelling necessitates standards for model documentation and exchange.

    PubMed

    Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Batstone, D J; Alex, J

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, problems related to simulation model documentation and model exchange between users are discussed. Complex simulation models have gained popularity in the environmental field, but require extensive documentation to allow independent implementation. The existence of different simulation platforms puts high demands on the quality of the original documentation. Recent experiences from cross-platform implementations with the ASM2d and ADM1 models reveal that error-free model documentation is difficult to obtain, and as a consequence, considerable time is spent on searching for documentation and implementation errors of various sources. As such, the list of errors and coding pitfalls provided for ASM2d and ADM1 in this paper is vital information for any future implementation of both models. The time needed to obtain an error-free model implementation can be significantly reduced if a standard language for model documentation and exchange is adopted. The extensible markup language (XML) and languages based on this format may provide a remedy to the problem of platform independent model documentation and exchange. In this paper the possibility to apply this to environmental models is discussed, whereas the practical model implementation examples corroborate the necessity for a standardised approach.

  9. Car accidents in cellular automata models for one-lane traffic flow

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moussa, Najem

    2003-09-01

    Conditions for the occurrence of car accidents are introduced in the Nagel-Schreckenberg model. These conditions are based on the thought that a real accident depends on several parameters: an unexpected action of the car ahead (sudden stop or abrupt deceleration), the gap between the two cars, the velocity of the successor car and its delayed reaction time. We discuss then the effect of this delayed reaction time on the probability of traffic accidents. We find that these conditions for the occurrence of car accidents are necessary for modeling realistic accidents.

  10. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Main Model

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Main Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  11. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Greenhouse Gases Model

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Greenhouse Gases Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  12. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Refinery Model

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Refinery Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  13. International Natural Gas Model 2011, Model Documentation Report

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the International Natural Gas Model (INGM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  14. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Electricity Model

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Electricity Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  15. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Coal Model

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Coal Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  16. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Industrial Model

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) World Industrial Model (WIM). It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  17. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Residential Model

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Residential Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  18. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Transportation Model

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) International Transportation model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  19. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: District Heat Model

    EIA Publications

    2017-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) District Heat Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  20. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Natural Gas Model

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) Natural Gas Model. It also catalogues and describes critical assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code.

  1. World Energy Projection System model documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Hutzler, M.J.; Anderson, A.T.

    1997-09-01

    The World Energy Projection System (WEPS) was developed by the Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting within the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the independent statistical and analytical agency of the US Department of Energy. WEPS is an integrated set of personal computer based spreadsheets containing data compilations, assumption specifications, descriptive analysis procedures, and projection models. The WEPS accounting framework incorporates projections from independently documented models and assumptions about the future energy intensity of economic activity (ratios of total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product GDP), and about the rate of incremental energy requirements met by natural gas, coal, and renewable energy sources (hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar, wind, biomass, and other renewable resources). Projections produced by WEPS are published in the annual report, International Energy Outlook. This report documents the structure and procedures incorporated in the 1998 version of the WEPS model. It has been written to provide an overview of the structure of the system and technical details about the operation of each component of the model for persons who wish to know how WEPS projections are produced by EIA.

  2. Advanced accident sequence precursor analysis level 1 models

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.; Schroeder, J.A.; Siu, N.O.

    1996-03-01

    INEL has been involved in the development of plant-specific Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) models for the past two years. These models were developed for use with the SAPHIRE suite of PRA computer codes. They contained event tree/linked fault tree Level 1 risk models for the following initiating events: general transient, loss-of-offsite-power, steam generator tube rupture, small loss-of-coolant-accident, and anticipated transient without scram. Early in 1995 the ASP models were revised based on review comments from the NRC and an independent peer review. These models were released as Revision 1. The Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research has sponsored several projects at the INEL this fiscal year to further enhance the capabilities of the ASP models. Revision 2 models incorporates more detailed plant information into the models concerning plant response to station blackout conditions, information on battery life, and other unique features gleaned from an Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation quick review of the Individual Plant Examination submittals. These models are currently being delivered to the NRC as they are completed. A related project is a feasibility study and model development of low power/shutdown (LP/SD) and external event extensions to the ASP models. This project will establish criteria for selection of LP/SD and external initiator operational events for analysis within the ASP program. Prototype models for each pertinent initiating event (loss of shutdown cooling, loss of inventory control, fire, flood, seismic, etc.) will be developed. A third project concerns development of enhancements to SAPHIRE. In relation to the ASP program, a new SAPHIRE module, GEM, was developed as a specific user interface for performing ASP evaluations. This module greatly simplifies the analysis process for determining the conditional core damage probability for a given combination of initiating events and equipment failures or degradations.

  3. Markov Model of Accident Progression at Fukushima Daiichi

    SciTech Connect

    Cuadra A.; Bari R.; Cheng, L-Y; Ginsberg, T.; Lehner, J.; Martinez-Guridi, G.; Mubayi, V.; Pratt, T.; Yue, M.

    2012-11-11

    On March 11, 2011, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake followed by a tsunami caused loss of offsite power and disabled the emergency diesel generators, leading to a prolonged station blackout at the Fukushima Daiichi site. After successful reactor trip for all operating reactors, the inability to remove decay heat over an extended period led to boil-off of the water inventory and fuel uncovery in Units 1-3. A significant amount of metal-water reaction occurred, as evidenced by the quantities of hydrogen generated that led to hydrogen explosions in the auxiliary buildings of the Units 1 & 3, and in the de-fuelled Unit 4. Although it was assumed that extensive fuel damage, including fuel melting, slumping, and relocation was likely to have occurred in the core of the affected reactors, the status of the fuel, vessel, and drywell was uncertain. To understand the possible evolution of the accident conditions at Fukushima Daiichi, a Markov model of the likely state of one of the reactors was constructed and executed under different assumptions regarding system performance and reliability. The Markov approach was selected for several reasons: It is a probabilistic model that provides flexibility in scenario construction and incorporates time dependence of different model states. It also readily allows for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of different failure and repair rates of cooling systems. While the analysis was motivated by a need to gain insight on the course of events for the damaged units at Fukushima Daiichi, the work reported here provides a more general analytical basis for studying and evaluating severe accident evolution over extended periods of time. This work was performed at the request of the U.S. Department of Energy to explore 'what-if' scenarios in the immediate aftermath of the accidents.

  4. Biomass Scenario Model Documentation: Data and References

    SciTech Connect

    Lin, Y.; Newes, E.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.; Stright, D.

    2013-05-01

    The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model that represents the entire biomass-to-biofuels supply chain, from feedstock to fuel use. The BSM is a complex model that has been used for extensive analyses; the model and its results can be better understood if input data used for initialization and calibration are well-characterized. It has been carefully validated and calibrated against the available data, with data gaps filled in using expert opinion and internally consistent assumed values. Most of the main data sources that feed into the model are recognized as baseline values by the industry. This report documents data sources and references in Version 2 of the BSM (BSM2), which only contains the ethanol pathway, although subsequent versions of the BSM contain multiple conversion pathways. The BSM2 contains over 12,000 total input values, with 506 distinct variables. Many of the variables are opportunities for the user to define scenarios, while others are simply used to initialize a stock, such as the initial number of biorefineries. However, around 35% of the distinct variables are defined by external sources, such as models or reports. The focus of this report is to provide insight into which sources are most influential in each area of the supply chain.

  5. Estimating vehicle roadside encroachment frequency using accident prediction models

    SciTech Connect

    Miaou, S.-P.

    1996-07-01

    The existing data to support the development of roadside encroachment- based accident models are extremely limited and largely outdated. Under the sponsorship of the Federal Highway Administration and Transportation Research Board, several roadside safety projects have attempted to address this issue by providing rather comprehensive data collection plans and conducting pilot data collection efforts. It is clear from the results of these studies that the required field data collection efforts will be expensive. Furthermore, the validity of any field collected encroachment data may be questionable because of the technical difficulty to distinguish intentional from unintentional encroachments. This paper proposes an alternative method for estimating the basic roadside encroachment data without actually field collecting them. The method is developed by exploring the probabilistic relationships between a roadside encroachment event and a run-off-the-road event With some mild assumptions, the method is capable of providing a wide range of basic encroachment data from conventional accident prediction models. To illustrate the concept and use of such a method, some basic encroachment data are estimated for rural two-lane undivided roads. In addition, the estimated encroachment data are compared with the existing collected data. The illustration shows that the method described in this paper can be a viable approach to estimating basic encroachment data without actually collecting them which can be very costly.

  6. ATMOSPHERIC MODELING IN SUPPORT OF A ROADWAY ACCIDENT

    SciTech Connect

    Buckley, R.; Hunter, C.

    2010-10-21

    The United States Forest Service-Savannah River (USFS) routinely performs prescribed fires at the Savannah River Site (SRS), a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located in southwest South Carolina. This facility covers {approx}800 square kilometers and is mainly wooded except for scattered industrial areas containing facilities used in managing nuclear materials for national defense and waste processing. Prescribed fires of forest undergrowth are necessary to reduce the risk of inadvertent wild fires which have the potential to destroy large areas and threaten nuclear facility operations. This paper discusses meteorological observations and numerical model simulations from a period in early 2002 of an incident involving an early-morning multicar accident caused by poor visibility along a major roadway on the northern border of the SRS. At the time of the accident, it was not clear if the limited visibility was due solely to fog or whether smoke from a prescribed burn conducted the previous day just to the northwest of the crash site had contributed to the visibility. Through use of available meteorological information and detailed modeling, it was determined that the primary reason for the low visibility on this night was fog induced by meteorological conditions.

  7. DRI Model of the U.S. Economy -- Model Documentation:

    EIA Publications

    1993-01-01

    Provides documentation on Data Resources, Inc., DRI Model of the U.S. Economy and the DRI Personal Computer Input/Output Model. It also describes the theoretical basis, structure and functions of both DRI models; and contains brief descriptions of the models and their equations.

  8. Modeling operator actions during a small break loss-of-coolant accident in a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, L.S.; Ortiz, M.G.

    1991-01-01

    A small break loss-of-accident (SBLOCA) in a typical Babcock and Wilcox (B W) nuclear power plant was modeled using RELAP5/MOD3. This work was performed as part of the United States Regulatory Commission's (USNRC) Code, Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) study. The break was initiated by severing one high pressure injection (HPI) line at the cold leg. Thus, the small break was further aggravated by reduced HPI flow. Comparisons between scoping runs with minimal operator action, and full operator action, clearly showed that the operator plays a key role in recovering the plant. Operator actions were modeled based on the emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and the Technical Bases Document for the EOPs. The sequence of operator actions modeled here is only one of several possibilities. Different sequences of operator actions are possible for a given accident because of the subjective decisions the operator must make when determining the status of the plant, hence, which branch of the EOP to follow. To assess the credibility of the modeled operator actions, these actions and results of the simulated accident scenario were presented to operator examiners who are familiar with B W nuclear power plants. They agreed that, in general, the modeled operator actions conform to the requirements set forth in the EOPs and are therefore plausible. This paper presents the method for modeling the operator actions and discusses the simulated accident scenario from the viewpoint of operator actions.

  9. Modeling operator actions during a small break loss-of-coolant accident in a Babcock and Wilcox nuclear power plant

    SciTech Connect

    Ghan, L.S.; Ortiz, M.G.

    1991-12-31

    A small break loss-of-accident (SBLOCA) in a typical Babcock and Wilcox (B&W) nuclear power plant was modeled using RELAP5/MOD3. This work was performed as part of the United States Regulatory Commission`s (USNRC) Code, Scaling, Applicability and Uncertainty (CSAU) study. The break was initiated by severing one high pressure injection (HPI) line at the cold leg. Thus, the small break was further aggravated by reduced HPI flow. Comparisons between scoping runs with minimal operator action, and full operator action, clearly showed that the operator plays a key role in recovering the plant. Operator actions were modeled based on the emergency operating procedures (EOPs) and the Technical Bases Document for the EOPs. The sequence of operator actions modeled here is only one of several possibilities. Different sequences of operator actions are possible for a given accident because of the subjective decisions the operator must make when determining the status of the plant, hence, which branch of the EOP to follow. To assess the credibility of the modeled operator actions, these actions and results of the simulated accident scenario were presented to operator examiners who are familiar with B&W nuclear power plants. They agreed that, in general, the modeled operator actions conform to the requirements set forth in the EOPs and are therefore plausible. This paper presents the method for modeling the operator actions and discusses the simulated accident scenario from the viewpoint of operator actions.

  10. Analysis of traffic accident size for Korean highway using structural equation models.

    PubMed

    Lee, Ju-Yeon; Chung, Jin-Hyuk; Son, Bongsoo

    2008-11-01

    Accident size can be expressed as the number of involved vehicles, the number of damaged vehicles, the number of deaths and/or the number of injured. Accident size is the one of the important indices to measure the level of safety of transportation facilities. Factors such as road geometric condition, driver characteristic and vehicle type may be related to traffic accident size. However, all these factors interact in complicate ways so that the interrelationships among the variables are not easily identified. A structural equation model is adopted to capture the complex relationships among variables because the model can handle complex relationships among endogenous and exogenous variables simultaneously and furthermore it can include latent variables in the model. In this study, we use 2649 accident data occurred on highways in Korea and estimate relationship among exogenous factors and traffic accident size. The model suggests that road factors, driver factors and environment factors are strongly related to the accident size.

  11. Model documentation report: Short-Term Hydroelectric Generation Model

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-08-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Short- Term Hydroelectric Generation Model (STHGM), describe its basic approach, and to provide details on the model structure. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the general public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with the Energy Information Administration`s (AYE) legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). The STHGM performs a short-term (18 to 27- month) forecast of hydroelectric generation in the United States using an autoregressive integrated moving average (UREMIA) time series model with precipitation as an explanatory variable. The model results are used as input for the short-term Energy Outlook.

  12. Predicting System Accidents with Model Analysis During Hybrid Simulation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malin, Jane T.; Fleming, Land D.; Throop, David R.

    2002-01-01

    Standard discrete event simulation is commonly used to identify system bottlenecks and starving and blocking conditions in resources and services. The CONFIG hybrid discrete/continuous simulation tool can simulate such conditions in combination with inputs external to the simulation. This provides a means for evaluating the vulnerability to system accidents of a system's design, operating procedures, and control software. System accidents are brought about by complex unexpected interactions among multiple system failures , faulty or misleading sensor data, and inappropriate responses of human operators or software. The flows of resource and product materials play a central role in the hazardous situations that may arise in fluid transport and processing systems. We describe the capabilities of CONFIG for simulation-time linear circuit analysis of fluid flows in the context of model-based hazard analysis. We focus on how CONFIG simulates the static stresses in systems of flow. Unlike other flow-related properties, static stresses (or static potentials) cannot be represented by a set of state equations. The distribution of static stresses is dependent on the specific history of operations performed on a system. We discuss the use of this type of information in hazard analysis of system designs.

  13. Simulation Study of Traffic Accidents in Bidirectional Traffic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moussa, Najem

    Conditions for the occurrence of bidirectional collisions are developed based on the Simon-Gutowitz bidirectional traffic model. Three types of dangerous situations can occur in this model. We analyze those corresponding to head-on collision; rear-end collision and lane-changing collision. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we compute the probability of the occurrence of these collisions for different values of the oncoming cars' density. It is found that the risk of collisions is important when the density of cars in one lane is small and that of the other lane is high enough. The influence of different proportions of heavy vehicles is also studied. We found that heavy vehicles cause an important reduction of traffic flow on the home lane and provoke an increase of the risk of car accidents.

  14. Another Look at the Relationship Between Accident- and Encroachment-Based Approaches to Run-Off-the-Road Accidents Modeling

    SciTech Connect

    Miaou, Shaw-Pin

    1997-08-01

    The purpose of this study was to look for ways to combine the strengths of both approaches in roadside safety research. The specific objectives were (1) to present the encroachment-based approach in a more systematic and coherent way so that its limitations and strengths can be better understood from both statistical and engineering standpoints, and (2) to apply the analytical and engineering strengths of the encroachment-based thinking to the formulation of mean functions in accident-based models.

  15. Simulation on Poisson and negative binomial models of count road accident modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sapuan, M. S.; Razali, A. M.; Zamzuri, Z. H.; Ibrahim, K.

    2016-11-01

    Accident count data have often been shown to have overdispersion. On the other hand, the data might contain zero count (excess zeros). The simulation study was conducted to create a scenarios which an accident happen in T-junction with the assumption the dependent variables of generated data follows certain distribution namely Poisson and negative binomial distribution with different sample size of n=30 to n=500. The study objective was accomplished by fitting Poisson regression, negative binomial regression and Hurdle negative binomial model to the simulated data. The model validation was compared and the simulation result shows for each different sample size, not all model fit the data nicely even though the data generated from its own distribution especially when the sample size is larger. Furthermore, the larger sample size indicates that more zeros accident count in the dataset.

  16. Documenting Bronze Age Akrotiri on Thera Using Laser Scanning, Image-Based Modelling and Geophysical Prospection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Trinks, I.; Wallner, M.; Kucera, M.; Verhoeven, G.; Torrejón Valdelomar, J.; Löcker, K.; Nau, E.; Sevara, C.; Aldrian, L.; Neubauer, E.; Klein, M.

    2017-02-01

    The excavated architecture of the exceptional prehistoric site of Akrotiri on the Greek island of Thera/Santorini is endangered by gradual decay, damage due to accidents, and seismic shocks, being located on an active volcano in an earthquake-prone area. Therefore, in 2013 and 2014 a digital documentation project has been conducted with support of the National Geographic Society in order to generate a detailed digital model of Akrotiri's architecture using terrestrial laser scanning and image-based modeling. Additionally, non-invasive geophysical prospection has been tested in order to investigate its potential to explore and map yet buried archaeological remains. This article describes the project and the generated results.

  17. Progresses in tritium accident modelling in the frame of IAEA EMRAS II

    SciTech Connect

    Galeriu, D.; Melintescu, A.

    2015-03-15

    The assessment of the environmental impact of tritium release from nuclear facilities is a topic of interest in many countries. In the IAEA's Environmental Modelling for Radiation Safety (EMRAS I) programme, progresses for routine releases were done and in the EMRAS II programme a dedicated working group (WG 7 - Tritium Accidents) focused on the potential accidental releases (liquid and atmospheric pathways). The progresses achieved in WG 7 were included in a complex report - a technical document of IAEA covering both liquid and atmospheric accidental release consequences. A brief description of the progresses achieved in the frame of EMRAS II WG 7 is presented. Important results have been obtained concerning washout rate, the deposition on the soil of HTO and HT, the HTO uptake by leaves and the subsequent conversion to OBT (organically bound tritium) during daylight. Further needs of the processes understanding and the experimental efforts are emphasised.

  18. Compartment model for long-term contamination prediction in deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Antonopoulos-Domis, M.; Clouvas, A.; Gagianas, A. )

    1990-06-01

    Radiocesium contamination from the Chernobyl accident of different parts (fruits, leaves, and shoots) of selected apricot trees in North Greece was systematically measured in 1987 and 1988. The results are presented and discussed in the framework of a simple compartment model describing the long-term contamination uptake mechanism of deciduous fruit trees after a nuclear accident.

  19. An aggregate accident model based on pooled, regional time-series data.

    PubMed

    Fridstrøm, L; Ingebrigtsen, S

    1991-10-01

    The determinants of personal injury road accidents and their severity are studied by means of generalized Poisson regression models estimated on the basis of combined cross-section/time-series data. Monthly data have been assembled for 18 Norwegian counties (every county but one), covering the period from January 1974 until December 1986. A rather wide range of potential explanatory factors are taken into account, including road use (exposure), weather, daylight, traffic density, road investment and maintenance expenditure, accident reporting routines, vehicle inspection, law enforcement, seat belt usage, proportion of inexperienced drivers, and alcohol sales. Separate probability models are estimated for the number of personal injury accidents, fatal accidents, injury victims, death victims, car occupants injured, and bicyclists and pedestrians injured. The fraction of personal injury accidents that are fatal is interpreted as an average severity measure and studied by means of a binomial logit model.

  20. iWitness pollution map: crowdsourcing petrochemical accident research.

    PubMed

    Bera, Risha; Hrybyk, Anna

    2013-01-01

    Community members living near any one of Louisiana's 160 chemical plants or refineries have always said that accidents occurring in these petrochemical facilities significantly impact their health and safety. This article reviews the iWitness Pollution Map tool and Rapid Response Team (RRT) approach led by the Louisiana Bucket Brigade, an environmental nonprofit group, and their effectiveness in documenting these health and safety impacts during petrochemical accidents. Analysis of a January 2013 RRT deployment in Chalmette, LA, showed increased documentation of current petrochemical accidents and suggested increased preparedness to report future accidents. The RRT model encourages government response and enforcement agencies to integrate with organized community groups to fully document the impacts during ongoing accidents, lead a more timely response to the accident, and prevent future accidents from occurring.

  1. Documenting Models for Interoperability and Reusability

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many modeling frameworks compartmentalize science via individual models that link sets of small components to create larger modeling workflows. Developing integrated watershed models increasingly requires coupling multidisciplinary, independent models, as well as collaboration be...

  2. Documenting Models for Interoperability and Reusability (proceedings)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Many modeling frameworks compartmentalize science via individual models that link sets of small components to create larger modeling workflows. Developing integrated watershed models increasingly requires coupling multidisciplinary, independent models, as well as collaboration be...

  3. Modelling transport and deposition of caesium and iodine from the Chernobyl accident using the DREAM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandt, J.; Christensen, J. H.; Frohn, L. M.

    2002-06-01

    A tracer model, DREAM (the Danish Rimpuff and Eulerian Accidental release Model), has been developed for modelling transport, dispersion and deposition (wet and dry) of radioactive material from accidental releases, as the Chernobyl accident. The model is a combination of a Lagrangian model, that includes the near source dispersion, and an Eulerian model describing the long-range transport. The performance of the transport model has previously been tested within the European Tracer Experiment, ETEX, which included transport and dispersion of an inert, non-depositing tracer from a controlled release. The focus of this paper is the model performance with respect to the deposition of 137Cs, 134Cs and 131I from the Chernobyl accident, using different relatively simple and comprehensive parameterizations. The performance, compared to measurements, of different combinations of parameterizations of wet and dry deposition schemes has been evaluated, using different statistical tests.

  4. Semantic Document Model to Enhance Data and Knowledge Interoperability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nešić, Saša

    To enable document data and knowledge to be efficiently shared and reused across application, enterprise, and community boundaries, desktop documents should be completely open and queryable resources, whose data and knowledge are represented in a form understandable to both humans and machines. At the same time, these are the requirements that desktop documents need to satisfy in order to contribute to the visions of the Semantic Web. With the aim of achieving this goal, we have developed the Semantic Document Model (SDM), which turns desktop documents into Semantic Documents as uniquely identified and semantically annotated composite resources, that can be instantiated into human-readable (HR) and machine-processable (MP) forms. In this paper, we present the SDM along with an RDF and ontology-based solution for the MP document instance. Moreover, on top of the proposed model, we have built the Semantic Document Management System (SDMS), which provides a set of services that exploit the model. As an application example that takes advantage of SDMS services, we have extended MS Office with a set of tools that enables users to transform MS Office documents (e.g., MS Word and MS PowerPoint) into Semantic Documents, and to search local and distant semantic document repositories for document content units (CUs) over Semantic Web protocols.

  5. Predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged priority junctions.

    PubMed

    Harnen, S; Umar, R S Radin; Wong, S V; Wan Hashim, W I

    2003-12-01

    In conjunction with a nationwide motorcycle safety program, the provision of exclusive motorcycle lanes has been implemented to overcome link-motorcycle accidents along trunk roads in Malaysia. However, not much work has been done to address accidents at junctions involving motorcycles. This article presents the development of predictive model for motorcycle accidents at three-legged major-minor priority junctions of urban roads in Malaysia. The generalized linear modeling technique was used to develop the model. The final model reveals that motorcycle accidents are proportional to the power of traffic flow. An increase in nonmotorcycle and motorcycle flows entering the junctions is associated with an increase in motorcycle accidents. Nonmotorcycle flow on major roads had the highest effect on the probability of motorcycle accidents. Approach speed, lane width, number of lanes, shoulder width, and land use were found to be significant in explaining motorcycle accidents at the three-legged major-minor priority junctions. These findings should enable traffic engineers to specifically design appropriate junction treatment criteria for nonexclusive motorcycle lane facilities.

  6. The modelling of fuel volatilisation in accident conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Manenc, H.; Mason, P. K.; Kissane, M. P.

    2001-04-01

    For oxidising conditions, at high temperatures, the pressure of uranium vapour species at the fuel surface is predicted to be high. These vapour species can be transported away from the fuel surface, giving rise to significant amounts of volatilised fuel, as has been observed during small-scale experiments and taken into account in different models. Hence, fuel volatilisation must be taken into account in the conduct of a simulated severe accident such as the Phebus FPT-4 experiment. A large-scale in-pile test is designed to investigate the release of fission products and actinides from irradiated UO 2 fuel in a debris bed and molten pool configuration. Best estimate predictions for fuel volatilisation were performed before the test. This analysis was used to assess the maximum possible loading of filters collecting emissions and the consequences for the filter-change schedule. Following successful completion of the experiment, blind post-test analysis is being performed; boundary conditions for the calculations are based on the preliminary post-test analysis with the core degradation code ICARE2 [J.C. Crestia, G. Repetto, S. Ederli, in: Proceedings of the Fourth Technical Seminar on the PHEBUS FP Programme, Marseille, France, 20-22 March 2000]. The general modelling approach is presented here and then illustrated by the analysis of fuel volatilisation in Phebus FPT4 (for which results are not yet available). Effort was made to reduce uncertainties in the calculations by improving the understanding of controlling physical processes and by using critically assessed thermodynamic data to determine uranium vapour pressures. The analysis presented here constitutes a preliminary, blind, post-test estimate of fuel volatilised during the test.

  7. Evaluation models and their influence on radiological consequences of hypothetical accidents in FFTF

    SciTech Connect

    Stepnewski, D.D.; Hale, J.P.; Martin, H.C.; Peak, R.D.; Franz, G.R.

    1980-04-01

    The influence of radiological evaluation models and assumptions on the off-site consequences of hypothetical core disruptive accidents is examined. The effects of initial source term, time of containment venting, meteorology, biological dose model, and aerosol fallout have been included. The analyses were based on two postulated scenarios of a severe hypothetical reactor vessel melt-through accident for 400 MW(t) fast reactor. Within each accident scenario, the results show that, although other variables are significant, radiological consequences are strongly affected by the amount of aerosol fallout computed to occur in the incident.

  8. Modelling the oil spill track from Prestige-Nassau accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montero, P.; Leitao, P.; Penabad, E.; Balseiro, C. F.; Carracedo, P.; Braunschweig, F.; Fernandes, R.; Gomez, B.; Perez-Munuzuri, V.; Neves, R.

    2003-04-01

    On November 13th 2002, the tank ship Prestige-Nassau sent a SOS signal. The hull of the ship was damaged producing an oil spill in front of the Galician coast (NW Spain). The damaged ship took north direction spilling more fuel and affecting the western Galician coast. After this, it changed its track to south. At this first stage of the accident, the ship spilt around 10000 Tm in 19th at the Galician Bank, at 133 NM of Galician coast. From the very beginning, a monitoring and forecasting of the first slick was developed. Afterwards, since southwesternly winds are frequent in wintertime, the slick from the initial spill started to move towards the Galician coast. This drift movement was followed by overflights. With the aim of forecasting the place and arriving date to the coast, some simulations with two different models were developed. The first one was a very simple drift model forced with the surface winds generated by ARPS operational model (1) at MeteoGalicia (regional weather forecast service). The second one was a more complex hydrodynamic model, MOHID2000 (2,3), developed by MARETEC GROUP (Instituto Superior Técnico de Lisboa) in collaboration with GFNL (Grupo de Física Non Lineal, Universidade de Santiago de Compostela). On November 28th, some tarballs appeared at south of main slick. This observations could be explained taking into account the below surface water movement following Ekman dynamic. Some new simulations with the aim of understanding better the physic underlying these observations were performed. Agreed between observations and simulations was achieved. We performed simulations with and without slope current previously calculated by other authors, showing that this current can only introduce subtle differences in the slick's arriving point to the coast and introducing wind as the primary forcing. (1) A two-dimensional particle tracking model for pollution dispersion in A Coruña and Vigo Rias (NW Spain). M. Gómez-Gesteira, P. Montero, R

  9. Improved CHAID algorithm for document structure modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belaïd, A.; Moinel, T.; Rangoni, Y.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a technique for the logical labelling of document images. It makes use of a decision-tree based approach to learn and then recognise the logical elements of a page. A state-of-the-art OCR gives the physical features needed by the system. Each block of text is extracted during the layout analysis and raw physical features are collected and stored in the ALTO format. The data-mining method employed here is the "Improved CHi-squared Automatic Interaction Detection" (I-CHAID). The contribution of this work is the insertion of logical rules extracted from the logical layout knowledge to support the decision tree. Two setups have been tested; the first uses one tree per logical element, the second one uses a single tree for all the logical elements we want to recognise. The main system, implemented in Java, coordinates the third-party tools (Omnipage for the OCR part, and SIPINA for the I-CHAID algorithm) using XML and XSL transforms. It was tested on around 1000 documents belonging to the ICPR'04 and ICPR'08 conference proceedings, representing about 16,000 blocks. The final error rate for determining the logical labels (among 9 different ones) is less than 6%.

  10. Multi-Modal Terminal Model Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2006-01-10

    Arena Top-Level Model.................................................................................................. 3 Figure 2: Visual Basic Editor...capabilities and functions. The Model was created using Arena Basic version 10.00 from Rockwell Software, Inc. and extended using Visual Basic for...Model. The Model was created using Arena Basic v 10.00 from Rockwell Software, Inc. (http://www.arenasimulation.com) and extended using Visual Basic for

  11. Revised OPTSA Model. Volume 2. Computer Program Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-06-01

    UNGUSSIFIED »gCUWITV CLAltlFICATIOM QW THII Pkal fWtitm 0*l« Cn)«rf« REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE P-1111 2 . OOVT ACCCUION NO 4. TITLE rand...SufcrlrUJ REVISED OPTSA MODEL Volume 2 : Computer Program Documentation 7. AUTMOUCt; Lowell Bruce Anderson Jerome Bracken Eleanor L. Schwartz t...ATC SCHOOL MawreiiieY. GALIFORNIA 93940 PAPER P-1111 REVISED OPTSA MODEL Volume 2 : Computer Program Documentation Lowell Bruce Anderson

  12. Documenting Models for Interoperability and Reusability ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Many modeling frameworks compartmentalize science via individual models that link sets of small components to create larger modeling workflows. Developing integrated watershed models increasingly requires coupling multidisciplinary, independent models, as well as collaboration between scientific communities, since component-based modeling can integrate models from different disciplines. Integrated Environmental Modeling (IEM) systems focus on transferring information between components by capturing a conceptual site model; establishing local metadata standards for input/output of models and databases; managing data flow between models and throughout the system; facilitating quality control of data exchanges (e.g., checking units, unit conversions, transfers between software languages); warning and error handling; and coordinating sensitivity/uncertainty analyses. Although many computational software systems facilitate communication between, and execution of, components, there are no common approaches, protocols, or standards for turn-key linkages between software systems and models, especially if modifying components is not the intent. Using a standard ontology, this paper reviews how models can be described for discovery, understanding, evaluation, access, and implementation to facilitate interoperability and reusability. In the proceedings of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs), 8th International Congress on Environmental Mod

  13. Highway accident severities and the mixed logit model: an exploratory empirical analysis.

    PubMed

    Milton, John C; Shankar, Venky N; Mannering, Fred L

    2008-01-01

    Many transportation agencies use accident frequencies, and statistical models of accidents frequencies, as a basis for prioritizing highway safety improvements. However, the use of accident severities in safety programming has been often been limited to the locational assessment of accident fatalities, with little or no emphasis being placed on the full severity distribution of accidents (property damage only, possible injury, injury)-which is needed to fully assess the benefits of competing safety-improvement projects. In this paper we demonstrate a modeling approach that can be used to better understand the injury-severity distributions of accidents on highway segments, and the effect that traffic, highway and weather characteristics have on these distributions. The approach we use allows for the possibility that estimated model parameters can vary randomly across roadway segments to account for unobserved effects potentially relating to roadway characteristics, environmental factors, and driver behavior. Using highway-injury data from Washington State, a mixed (random parameters) logit model is estimated. Estimation findings indicate that volume-related variables such as average daily traffic per lane, average daily truck traffic, truck percentage, interchanges per mile and weather effects such as snowfall are best modeled as random-parameters-while roadway characteristics such as the number of horizontal curves, number of grade breaks per mile and pavement friction are best modeled as fixed parameters. Our results show that the mixed logit model has considerable promise as a methodological tool in highway safety programming.

  14. Innovative approach to modeling accident response of Gravel Gerties

    SciTech Connect

    Kramer, M.; McClure, P.; Sullivan, H.

    1997-08-01

    Recent safety analyses at nuclear explosive facilities have renewed interest in the accident phenomenology associated with explosions in nuclear explosive cells, which are commonly referred to as {open_quotes}Gravel Gerties.{close_quotes} The cells are used for the assembly and disassembly of nuclear explosives and are located in the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) and at the Pantex facility. The cells are designed to mitigate the release of special nuclear material to the environment in the event of a detonation of high explosive within the Gravel Gertie. Although there are some subtle differences between the cells of DAF and Pantex, their general design, geometry, and configuration are similar. The cells consist of a round room approximately 10.4 m in diameter and 5.2 m high enclosed by 0.3-m-thick concrete. Each cell has a wire-rope cantenary roof overlain with gravel. The gravel is approximately 6.9 m deep at the center of the roof and decreases toward the outer edge of the cell. The cell is connected to a corridor and subsequent rooms through an interlocking blast door. In the event of a accidental explosion involving significant amounts of high explosive, the roof structure is lifted by the force of the explosion, the supporting cables break, the gravel is lifted by the blast (resulting in rapid venting of the cell), and the gravel roof collapses, filling the cell. The lifting and subsequent collapse of the gravel, which acts much like a piston, is very challenging to model.

  15. Representing Documents Using an Explicit Model of Their Similarities.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bartell, Brian T.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    Discussion of the failure of individual keywords to identify conceptual content of documents in retrieval systems highlights Metric Similarity Modeling, a method for creating vector space representation of documents based on modeling target interdocument similarity values. Semantic relatedness, latent semantic indexing, an indexing and retrieval…

  16. Morphological Degradation Models and their Use in Document Image Restoration

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2001-02-01

    Restoration Qigong Zheng and Tapas Kanungo Language and Media Processing Laboratory Center for Automation Research University of Maryland College Park...IIS9987944 February 2001 Morphological Degradation Models and their Use in Document Image Restoration Qigong Zheng and Tapas Kanungo Morphological...Degradation Models and their Use in Document Image Restoration Qigong Zheng and Tapas Kanungo Language and Media Processing Laboratory Center for Automation

  17. Model Documentation for the MiniCAM

    SciTech Connect

    Brenkert, Antoinette L.; Smith, Steven J.; Kim, Son H.; Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2003-07-17

    The MiniCAM, short for the Mini-Climate Assessment Model, is an integrated assessment model of moderate complexity focused on energy and agriculture sectors. The model produces emissions of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide) and other radiatively important substances such as sulfur dioxide. Through incorporation of the simple climate model MAGICC, the consequences of these emissions for climate change and sea-level rise can be examined. The MiniCAM is designed to be fast and flexible.

  18. A summary documentation of the AMIP models

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, T.J.

    1994-04-01

    This report summarizes essential features of the global atmospheric models of 30 groups that are participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP), an international effort to simulate the climate of the period 1979-1988 with common ocean boundary conditions and radiative forcings. Salient features of the AMIP models are summarized in tabular form, and the principal numerical, dynamical, and physical properties of each model are described in greater detail as well. An extensive bibliography of references on the algorithms and parameterizations used in the AMIP models is also provided.

  19. Modeling fault among accident--involved pedestrians and motorists in Hawaii.

    PubMed

    Kim, Karl; Brunner, I Made; Yamashita, Eric

    2008-11-01

    Using a comprehensive database of police-reported accidents in Hawaii, we describe the nature of pedestrian accidents over the period 2002-2005. Approximately 36% of the accidents occur in residential areas, while another 34% occur in business areas. Only 41.7% of the pedestrian accidents occur at intersections. More pedestrian crashes occur at non-intersection locations-including midblock locations, driveways, parking lots, and other off roadway locations. Approximately 38.2% of the crashes occur at crosswalk locations, while proportionately more (61.8%) of the pedestrian accidents occur at non-crosswalk locations. Using this database the human, temporal, roadway, and environmental factors associated with being "at-fault" for both pedestrians and drivers are also examined. Using techniques of logistic regression, several different explanatory models are constructed, to identify the factors associated with crashes producing fatalities and serious injuries. Finally, two pedestrian models (drunk males and young boys) and one driver model (male commuters) are developed to provide further understanding of pedestrian accident causation. Drunk male pedestrians who were jaywalking were in excess of 10x more likely than other groups to be at-fault in pedestrian accidents. Young boys in residential areas were also more likely to be at-fault. Male commuters in business areas in the morning were also found to have higher odds of being classified at-fault when involved in pedestrian accidents. The results of this study indicate that there should be a combination of enforcement and educational programs implemented for both the pedestrian and drivers to show those at-fault the consequences of their actions, and to reduce the overall number of accidents.

  20. Development of comprehensive accident models for two-lane rural highways using exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables.

    PubMed

    Cafiso, Salvatore; Di Graziano, Alessandro; Di Silvestro, Giacomo; La Cava, Grazia; Persaud, Bhagwant

    2010-07-01

    In Europe, approximately 60% of road accident fatalities occur on two-lane rural roads. Thus, research to develop and enhance explanatory and predictive models for this road type continues to be of interest in mitigating these accidents. To this end, this paper describes a novel and extensive data collection and modeling effort to define accident models for two-lane road sections based on a unique combination of exposure, geometry, consistency and context variables directly related to the safety performance. The first part of the paper documents how these were identified for the segmentation of highways into homogeneous sections. Next, is a description of the extensive data collection effort that utilized differential cinematic GPS surveys to define the horizontal alignment variables, and road safety inspections (RSIs) to quantify the other road characteristics related to safety. The final part of the paper focuses on the calibration of models for estimating the expected number of accidents on homogeneous sections that can be characterized by constant values of the explanatory variables. Several candidate models were considered for calibration using the Generalized Linear Modeling (GLM) approach. After considering the statistical significance of the parameters related to exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors, and goodness of fit statistics, 19 models were ranked and three were selected as the recommended models. The first of the three is a base model, with length and traffic as the only predictor variables; since these variables are the only ones likely to be available network-wide, this base model can be used in an empirical Bayesian calculation to conduct network screening for ranking "sites with promise" of safety improvement. The other two models represent the best statistical fits with different combinations of significant variables related to exposure, geometry, consistency and context factors. These multiple variable models can be used, with

  1. EIA model documentation: Electricity market module - electricity fuel dispatch

    SciTech Connect

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the National Energy Modeling System Electricity Fuel Dispatch Submodule (EFD), a submodule of the Electricity Market Module (EMM) as it was used for EIA`s Annual Energy Outlook 1997. It replaces previous documentation dated March 1994 and subsequent yearly update revisions. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This document serves four purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the model for reviewers and potential users of the EFD including energy experts at the Energy Information Administration (EIA), other Federal agencies, state energy agencies, private firms such as utilities and consulting firms, and non-profit groups such as consumer and environmental groups. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation which details model enhancements that were undertaken for AE097 and since the previous documentation. Last, because the major use of the EFD is to develop forecasts, this documentation explains the calculations, major inputs and assumptions which were used to generate the AE097.

  2. Cellular automata model simulating traffic car accidents in the on-ramp system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Echab, H.; Lakouari, N.; Ez-Zahraouy, H.; Benyoussef, A.

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, using Nagel-Schreckenberg model we study the on-ramp system under the expanded open boundary condition. The phase diagram of the two-lane on-ramp system is computed. It is found that the expanded left boundary insertion strategy enhances the flow in the on-ramp lane. Furthermore, we have studied the probability of the occurrence of car accidents. We distinguish two types of car accidents: the accident at the on-ramp site (Prc) and the rear-end accident in the main road (Pac). It is shown that car accidents at the on-ramp site are more likely to occur when traffic is free on road A. However, the rear-end accidents begin to occur above a critical injecting rate αc1. The influence of the on-ramp length (LB) and position (xC0) on the car accidents probabilities is studied. We found that large LB or xC0 causes an important decrease of the probability Prc. However, only large xC0 provokes an increase of the probability Pac. The effect of the stochastic randomization is also computed.

  3. Discovering binary codes for documents by learning deep generative models.

    PubMed

    Hinton, Geoffrey; Salakhutdinov, Ruslan

    2011-01-01

    We describe a deep generative model in which the lowest layer represents the word-count vector of a document and the top layer represents a learned binary code for that document. The top two layers of the generative model form an undirected associative memory and the remaining layers form a belief net with directed, top-down connections. We present efficient learning and inference procedures for this type of generative model and show that it allows more accurate and much faster retrieval than latent semantic analysis. By using our method as a filter for a much slower method called TF-IDF we achieve higher accuracy than TF-IDF alone and save several orders of magnitude in retrieval time. By using short binary codes as addresses, we can perform retrieval on very large document sets in a time that is independent of the size of the document set using only one word of memory to describe each document.

  4. Training of Existing Workers: Issues, Incentives and Models. Support Document

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mawer, Giselle; Jackson, Elaine

    2005-01-01

    This document was produced by the authors based on their research for the report, "Training of Existing Workers: Issues, Incentives and Models," (ED495138) and is an added resource for further information. This support document is divided into the following sections: (1) The Retail Industry--A Snapshot; (2) Case Studies--Hardware, Retail…

  5. A Synergetic Model for Building an Intelligent Documentation System (IDS).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Emdad, Ali

    1990-01-01

    Presents a conceptual framework for building an intelligent documentation system (IDS) for computer software by integrating hypermedia and expert systems technologies. The need for online computer documentation for end-users is discussed, and elements of the synergetic model are described, including knowledge representation, the hypermedia…

  6. A study of factors affecting highway accident rates using the random-parameters tobit model.

    PubMed

    Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Mannering, Fred L; Shankar, Venky N; Haddock, John E

    2012-03-01

    A large body of previous literature has used a variety of count-data modeling techniques to study factors that affect the frequency of highway accidents over some time period on roadway segments of a specified length. An alternative approach to this problem views vehicle accident rates (accidents per mile driven) directly instead of their frequencies. Viewing the problem as continuous data instead of count data creates a problem in that roadway segments that do not have any observed accidents over the identified time period create continuous data that are left-censored at zero. Past research has appropriately applied a tobit regression model to address this censoring problem, but this research has been limited in accounting for unobserved heterogeneity because it has been assumed that the parameter estimates are fixed over roadway-segment observations. Using 9-year data from urban interstates in Indiana, this paper employs a random-parameters tobit regression to account for unobserved heterogeneity in the study of motor-vehicle accident rates. The empirical results show that the random-parameters tobit model outperforms its fixed-parameters counterpart and has the potential to provide a fuller understanding of the factors determining accident rates on specific roadway segments.

  7. Documentation of the Fourth Order Band Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay-Rivas, E.; Hoitsma, D.

    1979-01-01

    A general circulation model is presented which uses quadratically conservative, fourth order horizontal space differences on an unstaggered grid and second order vertical space differences with a forward-backward or a smooth leap frog time scheme to solve the primitive equations of motion. The dynamic equations for motion, finite difference equations, a discussion of the structure and flow chart of the program code, a program listing, and three relevent papers are given.

  8. Effects of a type of quenched randomness on car accidents in a cellular automaton model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xian-Qing; Zhang, Wei; Qiu, Kang; Zhao, Yue-Min

    2006-01-01

    In this paper we numerically study the probability Pac of the occurrence of car accidents in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model with a defect. In the deterministic NS model, numerical results show that there exists a critical value of car density below which no car accident happens. The critical density ρc1 is not related only to the maximum speed of cars, but also to the braking probability at the defect. The braking probability at a defect can enhance, not suppress, the occurrence of car accidents when its value is small. Only the braking probability at the defect is very large, car accidents can be reduced by the bottleneck. In the nondeterministic NS model, the probability Pac exhibits the same behaviors with that in the deterministic model except the case of vmax=1 under which the probability Pac is only reduced by the defect. The defect also induces the inhomogeneous distribution of car accidents over the whole road. Theoretical analyses give an agreement with numerical results in the deterministic NS model and in the nondeterministic NS model with vmax=1 in the case of large defect braking probability.

  9. Medical problem and document model for natural language understanding.

    PubMed

    Meystre, Stephanie; Haug, Peter J

    2003-01-01

    We are developing tools to help maintain a complete, accurate and timely problem list within a general purpose Electronic Medical Record system. As a part of this project, we have designed a system to automatically retrieve medical problems from free-text documents. Here we describe an information model based on XML (eXtensible Markup Language) and compliant with the CDA (Clinical Document Architecture). This model is used to ease the exchange of clinical data between the Natural Language Understanding application that retrieves potential problems from narrative document, and the problem list management application.

  10. Development of a standard documentation protocol for communicating exposure models.

    PubMed

    Ciffroy, P; Altenpohl, A; Fait, G; Fransman, W; Paini, A; Radovnikovic, A; Simon-Cornu, M; Suciu, N; Verdonck, F

    2016-10-15

    An important step in building a computational model is its documentation; a comprehensive and structured documentation can improve the model applicability and transparency in science/research and for regulatory purposes. This is particularly crucial and challenging for environmental and/or human exposure models that aim to establish quantitative relationships between personal exposure levels and their determinants. Exposure models simulate the transport and fate of a contaminant from the source to the receptor and may involve a large set of entities (e.g. all the media the contaminants may pass though). Such complex models are difficult to be described in a comprehensive, unambiguous and accessible way. Bad communication of assumptions, theory, structure and/or parameterization can lead to lack of confidence by the user and it may be source of errors. The goal of this paper is to propose a standard documentation protocol (SDP) for exposure models, i.e. a generic format and a standard structure by which all exposure models could be documented. For this purpose, a CEN (European Committee for Standardisation) workshop was set up with objective to agree on minimum requirements for the amount and type of information to be provided on exposure models documentation along with guidelines for the structure and presentation of the information. The resulting CEN workshop agreement (CWA) was expected to facilitate a more rigorous formulation of exposure models description and the understanding by users. This paper intends to describe the process followed for defining the SDP, the standardisation approach, as well as the main components of the SDP resulting from a wide consultation of interested stakeholders. The main outcome is a CEN CWA which establishes terms and definitions for exposure models and their elements, specifies minimum requirements for the amount and type of information to be documented, and proposes a structure for communicating the documentation to different

  11. Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) for Aviation Accident Modeling and Technology Portfolio Impact Assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shih, Ann T.; Ancel, Ersin; Jones, Sharon M.

    2012-01-01

    The concern for reducing aviation safety risk is rising as the National Airspace System in the United States transforms to the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). The NASA Aviation Safety Program is committed to developing an effective aviation safety technology portfolio to meet the challenges of this transformation and to mitigate relevant safety risks. The paper focuses on the reasoning of selecting Object-Oriented Bayesian Networks (OOBN) as the technique and commercial software for the accident modeling and portfolio assessment. To illustrate the benefits of OOBN in a large and complex aviation accident model, the in-flight Loss-of-Control Accident Framework (LOCAF) constructed as an influence diagram is presented. An OOBN approach not only simplifies construction and maintenance of complex causal networks for the modelers, but also offers a well-organized hierarchical network that is easier for decision makers to exploit the model examining the effectiveness of risk mitigation strategies through technology insertions.

  12. Effects of quenched randomness induced by car accidents on traffic flow in a cellular automata model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Xian-Qing; Ma, Yu-Qiang; Zhao, Yue-Min

    2004-10-01

    In this paper we numerically study the impact of quenched disorder induced by car accidents on traffic flow in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model. Car accidents occur when the necessary conditions proposed by [Boccara J. Phys. A 30, 3329 (1997)] are satisfied. Two realistic situations of cars involved in car accidents have been considered. Model A is presented to consider that the accident cars become temporarily stuck. Our studies exhibit the “inverse- λ form” or the metastable state for traffic flow in the fundamental diagram and wide-moving waves of jams in the space-time pattern. Model B is proposed to take into account that the “wrecked” cars stay there forever and the cars behind will pass through the sites occupied by the “wrecked” cars with a transmission rate. Four-stage transitions from a maximum flow through a sharp decrease phase and a density-independent phase to a high-density jamming phase for traffic flow have been observed. The density profiles and the effects of transmission rate and probability of the occurrence of car accidents in model B are also discussed.

  13. Documentation of the AMIP models on the World Wide Web

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, T.J.

    1995-08-01

    The intercomparison of atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments of a similar type has become an increasingly popular methodology for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of climate simulations. In such endeavors, attempts to attribute differences among the simulations to specific model properties require, as a minimum prerequisite, the accurate and comprehensive documentation of these features. Regrettably however, atmospheric model documentation typically is fragmentary and scattered across numerous publications. It is also often inaccurate, in the sense that the pace of model development and the proliferation of new model versions usually outstrip their recorded descriptions. More often than not, the detailed configuration of a model for a particular experiment also is undocumented. In addition, there may be much unevenness in the descriptions of different facets of models. This incompleteness usually is replicated in published results of an intercomparison experiment, in that participating models` features often are summarized only perfunctorily. Summary documentation of the numerics, dynamics, and physics of models participating in the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) is now available on the Internet`s World Wide Web. This paper describes the principal attributes of the electronic model documentation and provides instructions on how to access it.

  14. Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

    PubMed

    Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

    2014-01-01

    In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

  15. Estimating Loss-of-Coolant Accident Frequencies for the Standardized Plant Analysis Risk Models

    SciTech Connect

    S. A. Eide; D. M. Rasmuson; C. L. Atwood

    2008-09-01

    The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission maintains a set of risk models covering the U.S. commercial nuclear power plants. These standardized plant analysis risk (SPAR) models include several loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) initiating events such as small (SLOCA), medium (MLOCA), and large (LLOCA). All of these events involve a loss of coolant inventory from the reactor coolant system. In order to maintain a level of consistency across these models, initiating event frequencies generally are based on plant-type average performance, where the plant types are boiling water reactors and pressurized water reactors. For certain risk analyses, these plant-type initiating event frequencies may be replaced by plant-specific estimates. Frequencies for SPAR LOCA initiating events previously were based on results presented in NUREG/CR-5750, but the newest models use results documented in NUREG/CR-6928. The estimates in NUREG/CR-6928 are based on historical data from the initiating events database for pressurized water reactor SLOCA or an interpretation of results presented in the draft version of NUREG-1829. The information in NUREG-1829 can be used several ways, resulting in different estimates for the various LOCA frequencies. Various ways NUREG-1829 information can be used to estimate LOCA frequencies were investigated and this paper presents two methods for the SPAR model standard inputs, which differ from the method used in NUREG/CR-6928. In addition, results obtained from NUREG-1829 are compared with actual operating experience as contained in the initiating events database.

  16. Model documentation report: Transportation sector model of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-03-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Transportation Model (TRAN). The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated by the model. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of TRAN for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, 57(b)(1)). Third, it permits continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

  17. An Evaluation of the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC) Software’s Ability to Model the Chornobyl Accident

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-03-01

    source term. Several publications provided a thorough accounting of the accident, including “ Chernobyl Record” [Mould], and the NRC technical report...Report on the Accident at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Station” [NUREG-1250]. The most comprehensive study of transport models to predict the...from the Chernobyl Accident: The ATMES Report” [Klug, et al.]. The Atmospheric Transport 5 Model Evaluation Study (ATMES) report used data

  18. Severe accident modeling of a PWR core with different cladding materials

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, S. C.; Henry, R. E.; Paik, C. Y.

    2012-07-01

    The MAAP v.4 software has been used to model two severe accident scenarios in nuclear power reactors with three different materials as fuel cladding. The TMI-2 severe accident was modeled with Zircaloy-2 and SiC as clad material and a SBO accident in a Zion-like, 4-loop, Westinghouse PWR was modeled with Zircaloy-2, SiC, and 304 stainless steel as clad material. TMI-2 modeling results indicate that lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would result if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2 as cladding. SBO modeling results indicate that the calculated time to RCS rupture would increase by approximately 20 minutes if SiC was substituted for Zircaloy-2. Additionally, when an extended SBO accident (RCS creep rupture failure disabled) was modeled, significantly lower peak core temperatures, less H 2 (g) produced, and a smaller mass of molten material would be generated by substituting SiC for Zircaloy-2 or stainless steel cladding. Because the rate of SiC oxidation reaction with elevated temperature H{sub 2}O (g) was set to 0 for this work, these results should be considered preliminary. However, the benefits of SiC as a more accident tolerant clad material have been shown and additional investigation of SiC as an LWR core material are warranted, specifically investigations of the oxidation kinetics of SiC in H{sub 2}O (g) over the range of temperatures and pressures relevant to severe accidents in LWR 's. (authors)

  19. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the Full City accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-06-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important decision support system (DeSS) useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models is of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the Full City accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws but including an analysis based on a higher resolution model (1.5 km resolution) for the area the model system show results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble using three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  20. Model Based Document and Report Generation for Systems Engineering

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delp, Christopher; Lam, Doris; Fosse, Elyse; Lee, Cin-Young

    2013-01-01

    As Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) practices gain adoption, various approaches have been developed in order to simplify and automate the process of generating documents from models. Essentially, all of these techniques can be unified around the concept of producing different views of the model according to the needs of the intended audience. In this paper, we will describe a technique developed at JPL of applying SysML Viewpoints and Views to generate documents and reports. An architecture of model-based view and document generation will be presented, and the necessary extensions to SysML with associated rationale will be explained. A survey of examples will highlight a variety of views that can be generated, and will provide some insight into how collaboration and integration is enabled. We will also describe the basic architecture for the enterprise applications that support this approach.

  1. Model based document and report generation for systems engineering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delp, C.; Lam, D.; Fosse, E.; Lee, Cin-Young

    As Model Based Systems Engineering (MBSE) practices gain adoption, various approaches have been developed in order to simplify and automate the process of generating documents from models. Essentially, all of these techniques can be unified around the concept of producing different views of the model according to the needs of the intended audience. In this paper, we will describe a technique developed at JPL of applying SysML Viewpoints and Views to generate documents and reports. An architecture of model-based view and document generation will be presented, and the necessary extensions to SysML with associated rationale will be explained. A survey of examples will highlight a variety of views that can be generated, and will provide some insight into how collaboration and integration is enabled. We will also describe the basic architecture for the enterprise applications that support this approach.

  2. Model predictions of wind and turbulence profiles associated with an ensemble of aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Williamson, G. G.; Lewellen, W. S.; Teske, M. E.

    1977-01-01

    The feasibility of predicting conditions under which wind/turbulence environments hazardous to aviation operations exist is studied by examining a number of different accidents in detail. A model of turbulent flow in the atmospheric boundary layer is used to reconstruct wind and turbulence profiles which may have existed at low altitudes at the time of the accidents. The predictions are consistent with available flight recorder data, but neither the input boundary conditions nor the flight recorder observations are sufficiently precise for these studies to be interpreted as verification tests of the model predictions.

  3. Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirements of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its model. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  4. Collective responsibility for freeway rear-ending accidents? An application of probabilistic casual models.

    PubMed

    Davis, Gary A; Swenson, Tait

    2006-07-01

    Determining whether or not an event was a cause of a road accident often involves determining the truth of a counterfactual conditional, where what happened is compared to what would have happened had the supposed cause been absent. Using structural causal models, Pearl and his associates have recently developed a rigorous method for posing and answering causal questions, and this approach is especially well suited to the reconstruction and analysis of road accidents. Here, we applied these methods to three freeway rear-end collisions. Starting with video recordings of the accidents, trajectory information for a platoon of vehicles involved in and preceding the collision was extracted from the video record, and this information was used to estimate each driver's initial speed, following distance, reaction time, and braking rate. Using Brill's model of rear-end accidents, it was then possible to simulate what would have happened, other things being equal, had certain driver actions been other than they were. In each of the three accidents we found evidence that: (1) short following headways by the colliding drivers were probable causal factors for the collisions, (2) for each collision, at least one driver ahead of the colliding vehicles probably had a reaction time that was longer than his or her following headway, and (3) had that driver's reaction time been equal to his or her following headway, the rear-end collision probably would not have happened.

  5. [Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents - MAPA: tool for operational health surveillance].

    PubMed

    de Almeida, Ildeberto Muniz; Vilela, Rodolfo Andrade de Gouveia; da Silva, Alessandro José Nunes; Beltran, Sandra Lorena

    2014-12-01

    The analysis of work-related accidents is important for accident surveillance and prevention. Current methods of analysis seek to overcome reductionist views that see these occurrences as simple events explained by operator error. The objective of this paper is to analyze the Model of Analysis and Prevention of Accidents (MAPA) and its use in monitoring interventions, duly highlighting aspects experienced in the use of the tool. The descriptive analytical method was used, introducing the steps of the model. To illustrate contributions and or difficulties, cases where the tool was used in the context of service were selected. MAPA integrates theoretical approaches that have already been tried in studies of accidents by providing useful conceptual support from the data collection stage until conclusion and intervention stages. Besides revealing weaknesses of the traditional approach, it helps identify organizational determinants, such as management failings, system design and safety management involved in the accident. The main challenges lie in the grasp of concepts by users, in exploring organizational aspects upstream in the chain of decisions or at higher levels of the hierarchy, as well as the intervention to change the determinants of these events.

  6. Usefulness of high resolution coastal models for operational oil spill forecast: the "Full City" accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broström, G.; Carrasco, A.; Hole, L. R.; Dick, S.; Janssen, F.; Mattsson, J.; Berger, S.

    2011-11-01

    Oil spill modeling is considered to be an important part of a decision support system (DeSS) for oil spill combatment and is useful for remedial action in case of accidents, as well as for designing the environmental monitoring system that is frequently set up after major accidents. Many accidents take place in coastal areas, implying that low resolution basin scale ocean models are of limited use for predicting the trajectories of an oil spill. In this study, we target the oil spill in connection with the "Full City" accident on the Norwegian south coast and compare operational simulations from three different oil spill models for the area. The result of the analysis is that all models do a satisfactory job. The "standard" operational model for the area is shown to have severe flaws, but by applying ocean forcing data of higher resolution (1.5 km resolution), the model system shows results that compare well with observations. The study also shows that an ensemble of results from the three different models is useful when predicting/analyzing oil spill in coastal areas.

  7. Sodium fast reactor gaps analysis of computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety.

    SciTech Connect

    Carbajo, Juan; Jeong, Hae-Yong; Wigeland, Roald; Corradini, Michael; Schmidt, Rodney Cannon; Thomas, Justin; Wei, Tom; Sofu, Tanju; Ludewig, Hans; Tobita, Yoshiharu; Ohshima, Hiroyuki; Serre, Frederic

    2011-06-01

    This report summarizes the results of an expert-opinion elicitation activity designed to qualitatively assess the status and capabilities of currently available computer codes and models for accident analysis and reactor safety calculations of advanced sodium fast reactors, and identify important gaps. The twelve-member panel consisted of representatives from five U.S. National Laboratories (SNL, ANL, INL, ORNL, and BNL), the University of Wisconsin, the KAERI, the JAEA, and the CEA. The major portion of this elicitation activity occurred during a two-day meeting held on Aug. 10-11, 2010 at Argonne National Laboratory. There were two primary objectives of this work: (1) Identify computer codes currently available for SFR accident analysis and reactor safety calculations; and (2) Assess the status and capability of current US computer codes to adequately model the required accident scenarios and associated phenomena, and identify important gaps. During the review, panel members identified over 60 computer codes that are currently available in the international community to perform different aspects of SFR safety analysis for various event scenarios and accident categories. A brief description of each of these codes together with references (when available) is provided. An adaptation of the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) for computational modeling and simulation is described for use in this work. The panel's assessment of the available US codes is presented in the form of nine tables, organized into groups of three for each of three risk categories considered: anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs), design basis accidents (DBA), and beyond design basis accidents (BDBA). A set of summary conclusions are drawn from the results obtained. At the highest level, the panel judged that current US code capabilities are adequate for licensing given reasonable margins, but expressed concern that US code development activities had stagnated and that the

  8. Sensitivity analysis of an accident prediction model by the fractional factorial method.

    PubMed

    Akgüngör, Ali P; Yildiz, Osman

    2007-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis of a model can help us determine relative effects of model parameters on model results. In this study, the sensitivity of the accident prediction model proposed by Zegeer et al. [Zegeer, C.V., Reinfurt, D., Hummer, J., Herf, L., Hunter, W., 1987. Safety Effect of Cross-section Design for Two-lane Roads, vols. 1-2. Report FHWA-RD-87/008 and 009 Federal Highway Administration, Department of Transportation, USA] to its parameters was investigated by the fractional factorial analysis method. The reason for selecting this particular model is that it incorporates both traffic and road geometry parameters besides terrain characteristics. The evaluation of sensitivity analysis indicated that average daily traffic (ADT), lane width (W), width of paved shoulder (PA), median (H) and their interactions (i.e., ADT-W, ADT-PA and ADT-H) have significant effects on number of accidents. Based on the absolute value of parameter effects at the three- and two-standard deviation thresholds ADT was found to be of primary importance, while the remaining identified parameters seemed to be of secondary importance. This agrees with the fact that ADT is among the most effective parameters to determine road geometry and therefore, it is directly related to number of accidents. Overall, the fractional factorial method was found to be an efficient tool to examine the relative importance of the selected accident prediction model parameters.

  9. Modelling transport and deposition of caesium and iodine from the Chernobyl accident using the DREAM model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brandt, J.; Christensen, J. H.; Frohn, L. M.

    2002-12-01

    A tracer model, DREAM (the Danish Rimpuff and Eulerian Accidental release Model), has been developed for modelling transport, dispersion and deposition (wet and dry) of radioactive material from accidental releases, as the Chernobyl accident. The model is a combination of a Lagrangian model, that includes the near source dispersion, and an Eulerian model describing the long-range transport. The performance of the transport model has previously been tested within the European Tracer Experiment, ETEX, which included transport and dispersion of an inert, non-depositing tracer from a controlled release. The focus of this paper is the model performance with respect to the total deposition of 137Cs, 134Cs and 131I from the Chernobyl accident, using different relatively simple and comprehensive parameterizations for dry- and wet deposition. The performance, compared to measurements, of using different combinations of two different wet deposition parameterizations and three different parameterizations of dry deposition has been evaluated, using different statistical tests. The best model performance, compared to measurements, is obtained when parameterizing the total deposition combined of a simple method for dry deposition and a subgrid-scale averaging scheme for wet deposition based on relative humidities. The same major conclusion is obtained for all the three different radioactive isotopes and using two different deposition measurement databases. Large differences are seen in the results obtained by using the two different parameterizations of wet deposition based on precipitation rates and relative humidities, respectively. The parameterization based on subgrid-scale averaging is, in all cases, performing better than the parameterization based on precipitation rates. This indicates that the in-cloud scavenging process is more important than the below cloud scavenging process for the submicron particles and that the precipitation rates are relatively uncertain in the

  10. Integrating Cognitive and Psychometric Models to Measure Document Literacy

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-10-01

    AD-A215 504 INTEGRATING COGNITIVE AND PSYCHOMETRIC MODELS TO MEASURE DOCUMENT LITERACY Kathleen Sheehan and Robert J. Mislevy DTICEtET -C NOV 2 4 19...Psychometric Models to Measure Document Literacy (Unclassified’) P ERSONAL ~RS Kathleen Sheehan and Robert J. Mislevv 𔃽a -vPS OF REPOR 3o 󈧏ME CD...Logistic Test ’,’ode’ literacy assessment; National Assessment of fducational Pl.jress * ,BS-DAC- Continue on reverse ,f necessary and ’dentify Oy

  11. A Conceptual Model for Multidimensional Analysis of Documents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ravat, Franck; Teste, Olivier; Tournier, Ronan; Zurlfluh, Gilles

    Data warehousing and OLAP are mainly used for the analysis of transactional data. Nowadays, with the evolution of Internet, and the development of semi-structured data exchange format (such as XML), it is possible to consider entire fragments of data such as documents as analysis sources. As a consequence, an adapted multidimensional analysis framework needs to be provided. In this paper, we introduce an OLAP multidimensional conceptual model without facts. This model is based on the unique concept of dimensions and is adapted for multidimensional document analysis. We also provide a set of manipulation operations.

  12. NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document for Human Health and Performance Models and Simulations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Walton, Marlei; Mulugeta, Lealem; Nelson, Emily S.; Myers, Jerry G.

    2014-01-01

    Rigorous verification, validation, and credibility (VVC) processes are imperative to ensure that models and simulations (MS) are sufficiently reliable to address issues within their intended scope. The NASA standard for MS, NASA-STD-7009 (7009) [1] was a resultant outcome of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) to ensure MS are developed, applied, and interpreted appropriately for making decisions that may impact crew or mission safety. Because the 7009 focus is engineering systems, a NASA-STD-7009 Guidance Document is being developed to augment the 7009 and provide information, tools, and techniques applicable to the probabilistic and deterministic biological MS more prevalent in human health and performance (HHP) and space biomedical research and operations.

  13. A graph model for preventing railway accidents based on the maximal information coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Fubo; Li, Keping

    2017-01-01

    A number of factors influences railway safety. It is an important work to identify important influencing factors and to build the relationship between railway accident and its influencing factors. The maximal information coefficient (MIC) is a good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships which can capture a wide range of associations. Employing MIC, a graph model is proposed for preventing railway accidents which avoids complex mathematical computation. In the graph, nodes denote influencing factors of railway accidents and edges represent dependence of the two linked factors. With the increasing of dependence level, the graph changes from a globally coupled graph to isolated points. Moreover, the important influencing factors are identified from many factors which are the monitor key. Then the relationship between railway accident and important influencing factors is obtained by employing the artificial neural networks. With the relationship, a warning mechanism is built by giving the dangerous zone. If the related factors fall into the dangerous zone in railway operations, the warning level should be raised. The built warning mechanism can prevent railway accidents and can promote railway safety.

  14. Dose estimates in a loss of lead shielding truck accident.

    SciTech Connect

    Dennis, Matthew L.; Osborn, Douglas M.; Weiner, Ruth F.; Heames, Terence John

    2009-08-01

    The radiological transportation risk & consequence program, RADTRAN, has recently added an updated loss of lead shielding (LOS) model to it most recent version, RADTRAN 6.0. The LOS model was used to determine dose estimates to first-responders during a spent nuclear fuel transportation accident. Results varied according to the following: type of accident scenario, percent of lead slump, distance to shipment, and time spent in the area. This document presents a method of creating dose estimates for first-responders using RADTRAN with potential accident scenarios. This may be of particular interest in the event of high speed accidents or fires involving cask punctures.

  15. Traffic accidents in a cellular automaton model with a speed limit zone

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Wei; Yang, Xian-qing; Sun, Da-peng; Qiu, Kang; Xia, Hui

    2006-07-01

    In this paper, we numerically study the probability Pac of the occurrence of car accidents in the Nagel-Schreckenberg (NS) model with a speed limit zone. Numerical results show that the probability for car accidents to occur Pac is determined by the maximum speed v'max of the speed limit zone, but is independent of the length Lv of the speed limit zone in the deterministic NS model. However in the nondeterministic NS model, the probability of the occurrence of car accidents Pac is determined not only by the maximum speed v'max, but also the length Lv. The probability Pac increases accordingly with the increase of the maximum speed of the speed limit zone, but decreases with the increase of the length of the speed limit zone, in the low-density region. However in the case of v'max = 1, the probability Pac increases with the increase of the length in the low-density region, but decreases in the interval between the low-density and high-density regions. The speed limit zone also causes an inhomogeneous distribution of car accidents over the whole road. Theoretical analyses give an agreement with numerical results in the nondeterministic NS model with v'max = 1 and vmax = 5.

  16. Impact of rainstorm and runoff modeling on predicted consequences of atmospheric releases from nuclear reactor accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Ritchie, L.T.; Brown, W.D.; Wayland, J.R.

    1980-05-01

    A general temperate latitude cyclonic rainstorm model is presented which describes the effects of washout and runoff on consequences of atmospheric releases of radioactive material from potential nuclear reactor accidents. The model treats the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation processes. Predicted air and ground concentrations of radioactive material and resultant health consequences for the new model are compared to those of the original WASH-1400 model under invariant meteorological conditions and for realistic weather events using observed meteorological sequences. For a specific accident under a particular set of meteorological conditions, the new model can give significantly different results from those predicted by the WASH-1400 model, but the aggregate consequences produced for a large number of meteorological conditions are similar.

  17. Input-output model for MACCS nuclear accident impacts estimation¹

    SciTech Connect

    Outkin, Alexander V.; Bixler, Nathan E.; Vargas, Vanessa N

    2015-01-27

    Since the original economic model for MACCS was developed, better quality economic data (as well as the tools to gather and process it) and better computational capabilities have become available. The update of the economic impacts component of the MACCS legacy model will provide improved estimates of business disruptions through the use of Input-Output based economic impact estimation. This paper presents an updated MACCS model, bases on Input-Output methodology, in which economic impacts are calculated using the Regional Economic Accounting analysis tool (REAcct) created at Sandia National Laboratories. This new GDP-based model allows quick and consistent estimation of gross domestic product (GDP) losses due to nuclear power plant accidents. This paper outlines the steps taken to combine the REAcct Input-Output-based model with the MACCS code, describes the GDP loss calculation, and discusses the parameters and modeling assumptions necessary for the estimation of long-term effects of nuclear power plant accidents.

  18. MSW Time to Tumor Model and Supporting Documentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The multistage Weibull (MSW) time-to-tumor model and related documentation were developed principally (but not exclusively) for conducting time-to-tumor analyses to support risk assessments under the IRIS program. These programs and related docum...

  19. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  20. EIA model documentation: Documentation of the Oil and Gas Supply Module (OGSM)

    SciTech Connect

    1997-01-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Oil and Gas Supply Model (OGSM), to describe the model`s basic approach, and to provide detail on how the model works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Projected production estimates of US crude oil and natural gas are based on supply functions generated endogenously within National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) by the OGSM. OGSM encompasses domestic crude oil and natural gas supply by both conventional and nonconventional recovery techniques. Nonconventional recovery includes enhanced oil recovery (EOR), and unconventional gas recovery (UGR) from tight gas formations, Devonian shale and coalbeds. Crude oil and natural gas projects are further disaggregated by geographic region. OGSM projects US domestic oil and gas supply for six Lower 48 onshore regions, three offshore regions, and Alaska. The general methodology relies on forecasted drilling expenditures and average drilling costs to determine exploratory and developmental drilling levels for each region and fuel type. These projected drilling levels translate into reserve additions, as well as a modification of the production capacity for each region. OGSM also represents foreign trade in natural gas, imports and exports by entry region.

  1. Accident/Mishap Investigation System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keller, Richard; Wolfe, Shawn; Gawdiak, Yuri; Carvalho, Robert; Panontin, Tina; Williams, James; Sturken, Ian

    2007-01-01

    InvestigationOrganizer (IO) is a Web-based collaborative information system that integrates the generic functionality of a database, a document repository, a semantic hypermedia browser, and a rule-based inference system with specialized modeling and visualization functionality to support accident/mishap investigation teams. This accessible, online structure is designed to support investigators by allowing them to make explicit, shared, and meaningful links among evidence, causal models, findings, and recommendations.

  2. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  3. Development of models for exchange of electronic documents

    SciTech Connect

    Glavev, Victor

    2014-11-18

    The report presents a model for exchange of electronic documents between different government administrations. It defines electronic messages that are transmitted between them and the way that messages should be processed by software systems. The proposed approach is sufficiently general and allows use of the best applicable information technologies such as data presentation structures and communication protocols. Within the study, a simple implementation of the model is implemented and deployed in various government administrations in Republic of Bulgaria.

  4. Stochastic language model for analyzing document physical layout

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanungo, Tapas; Mao, Song

    2001-12-01

    Image segmentation is an important component of any document image analysis system. While many segmentation algorithms exist in the literature, very few i) allow users to specify the physical style, and ii) incorporate user-specified style information into the algorithm's objective function that is to be minimized. We describe a segmentation algorithm that models a document's physical structure as a hierarchical structure where each node describes a region of the document using a stochastic regular grammar. The exact form of the hierarchy and the stochastic language is specified by the user, while the probabilities associated with the transitions are estimated from groundtruth data. We demonstrate the segmentation algorithm on images of bilingual dictionaries.

  5. System analysis with improved thermo-mechanical fuel rod models for modeling current and advanced LWR materials in accident scenarios

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porter, Ian Edward

    A nuclear reactor systems code has the ability to model the system response in an accident scenario based on known initial conditions at the onset of the transient. However, there has been a tendency for these codes to lack the detailed thermo-mechanical fuel rod response models needed for accurate prediction of fuel rod failure. This proposed work will couple today's most widely used steady-state (FRAPCON) and transient (FRAPTRAN) fuel rod models with a systems code TRACE for best-estimate modeling of system response in accident scenarios such as a loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In doing so, code modifications will be made to model gamma heating in LWRs during steady-state and accident conditions and to improve fuel rod thermal/mechanical analysis by allowing axial nodalization of burnup-dependent phenomena such as swelling, cladding creep and oxidation. With the ability to model both burnup-dependent parameters and transient fuel rod response, a fuel dispersal study will be conducted using a hypothetical accident scenario under both PWR and BWR conditions to determine the amount of fuel dispersed under varying conditions. Due to the fuel fragmentation size and internal rod pressure both being dependent on burnup, this analysis will be conducted at beginning, middle and end of cycle to examine the effects that cycle time can play on fuel rod failure and dispersal. Current fuel rod and system codes used by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) are compilations of legacy codes with only commonly used light water reactor materials, Uranium Dioxide (UO2), Mixed Oxide (U/PuO 2) and zirconium alloys. However, the events at Fukushima Daiichi and Three Mile Island accident have shown the need for exploration into advanced materials possessing improved accident tolerance. This work looks to further modify the NRC codes to include silicon carbide (SiC), an advanced cladding material proposed by current DOE funded research on accident tolerant fuels (ATF). Several

  6. Accident Sequence Precursor Program Large Early Release Frequency Model Development

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, T.D.; Brownson, D.A.; Duran, F.A.; Gregory, J.J.; Rodrick, E.G.

    1999-01-04

    The objectives for the ASP large early release frequency (LERF) model development work is to build a Level 2 containment response model that would capture all of the events necessary to define LERF as outlined in Regulatory Guide 1.174, can be directly interfaced with the existing Level 1 models, is technically correct, can be readily modified to incorporate new information or to represent another plant, and can be executed in SAPHIRE. The ASP LERF models being developed will meet these objectives while providing the NRC with the capability to independently assess the risk impact of plant-specific changes proposed by the utilities that change the nuclear power plants' licensing basis. Together with the ASP Level 1 models, the ASP LERF models provide the NRC with the capability of performing equipment and event assessments to determine their impact on a plant's LERF for internal events during power operation. In addition, the ASP LERF models are capable of being updated to reflect changes in information regarding the system operations and phenomenological events, and of being updated to assess the potential for early fatalities for each LERF sequence. As the ASP Level 1 models evolve to include more analysis capabilities, the LERF models will also be refined to reflect the appropriate level of detail needed to demonstrate the new capabilities. An approach was formulated for the development of detailed LERF models using the NUREG-1150 APET models as a guide. The modifications to the SAPHIRE computer code have allowed the development of these detailed models and the ability to analyze these models in a reasonable time. Ten reference LERF plant models, including six PWR models and four BWR models, which cover a wide variety of containment and nuclear steam supply systems designs, will be complete in 1999. These reference models will be used as the starting point for developing the LERF models for the remaining nuclear power plants.

  7. Dynamic modelling of radionuclide uptake by marine biota: application to the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Vives i Batlle, Jordi

    2016-01-01

    The dynamic model D-DAT was developed to study the dynamics of radionuclide uptake and turnover in biota and sediments in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima accident. This dynamics is determined by the interplay between the residence time of radionuclides in seawater/sediments and the biological half-lives of elimination by the biota. The model calculates time-variable activity concentration of (131)I, (134)Cs, (137)Cs and (90)Sr in seabed sediment, fish, crustaceans, molluscs and macroalgae from surrounding activity concentrations in seawater, with which to derive internal and external dose rates. A central element of the model is the inclusion of dynamic transfer of radionuclides to/from sediments by factorising the depletion of radionuclides adsorbed onto suspended particulates, molecular diffusion, pore water mixing and bioturbation, represented by a simple set of differential equations coupled with the biological uptake/turnover processes. In this way, the model is capable of reproducing activity concentration in sediment more realistically. The model was used to assess the radiological impact of the Fukushima accident on marine biota in the acute phase of the accident. Sediment and biota activity concentrations are within the wide range of actual monitoring data. Activity concentrations in marine biota are thus shown to be better calculated by a dynamic model than with the simpler equilibrium approach based on concentration factors, which tends to overestimate for the acute accident period. Modelled dose rates from external exposure from sediment are also significantly below equilibrium predictions. The model calculations confirm previous studies showing that radioactivity levels in marine biota have been generally below the levels necessary to cause a measurable effect on populations. The model was used in mass-balance mode to calculate total integrated releases of 103, 30 and 3 PBq for (131)I, (137)Cs and (90)Sr, reasonably in line with previous

  8. Underreporting in traffic accident data, bias in parameters and the structure of injury severity models.

    PubMed

    Yamamoto, Toshiyuki; Hashiji, Junpei; Shankar, Venkataraman N

    2008-07-01

    Injury severities in traffic accidents are usually recorded on ordinal scales, and statistical models have been applied to investigate the effects of driver factors, vehicle characteristics, road geometrics and environmental conditions on injury severity. The unknown parameters in the models are in general estimated assuming random sampling from the population. Traffic accident data however suffer from underreporting effects, especially for lower injury severities. As a result, traffic accident data can be regarded as outcome-based samples with unknown population shares of the injury severities. An outcome-based sample is overrepresented by accidents of higher severities. As a result, outcome-based samples result in biased parameters which skew our inferences on the effect of key safety variables such as safety belt usage. The pseudo-likelihood function for the case with unknown population shares, which is the same as the conditional maximum likelihood for the case with known population shares, is applied in this study to examine the effects of severity underreporting on the parameter estimates. Sequential binary probit models and ordered-response probit models of injury severity are developed and compared in this study. Sequential binary probit models assume that the factors determining the severity change according to the level of the severity itself, while ordered-response probit models assume that the same factors correlate across all levels of severity. Estimation results suggest that the sequential binary probit models outperform the ordered-response probit models, and that the coefficient estimates for lap and shoulder belt use are biased if underreporting is not considered. Mean parameter bias due to underreporting can be significant. The findings show that underreporting on the outcome dimension may induce bias in inferences on a variety of factors. In particular, if underreporting is not accounted for, the marginal impacts of a variety of factors appear

  9. Review of the chronic exposure pathways models in MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) and several other well-known probabilistic risk assessment models

    SciTech Connect

    Tveten, U. )

    1990-06-01

    The purpose of this report is to document the results of the work performed by the author in connection with the following task, performed for US Nuclear Regulatory Commission, (USNRC) Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Division of Systems Research: MACCS Chronic Exposure Pathway Models: Review the chronic exposure pathway models implemented in the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS) and compare those models to the chronic exposure pathway models implemented in similar codes developed in countries that are members of the OECD. The chronic exposures concerned are via: the terrestrial food pathways, the water pathways, the long-term groundshine pathway, and the inhalation of resuspended radionuclides pathway. The USNRC has indicated during discussions of the task that the major effort should be spent on the terrestrial food pathways. There is one chapter for each of the categories of chronic exposure pathways listed above.

  10. A flammability and combustion model for integrated accident analysis. [Advanced light water reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Plys, M.G.; Astleford, R.D.; Epstein, M. )

    1988-01-01

    A model for flammability characteristics and combustion of hydrogen and carbon monoxide mixtures is presented for application to severe accident analysis of Advanced Light Water Reactors (ALWR's). Flammability of general mixtures for thermodynamic conditions anticipated during a severe accident is quantified with a new correlation technique applied to data for several fuel and inertant mixtures and using accepted methods for combining these data. Combustion behavior is quantified by a mechanistic model consisting of a continuity and momentum balance for the burned gases, and considering an uncertainty parameter to match the idealized process to experiment. Benchmarks against experiment demonstrate the validity of this approach for a single recommended value of the flame flux multiplier parameter. The models presented here are equally applicable to analysis of current LWR's. 21 refs., 16 figs., 6 tabs.

  11. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    PubMed Central

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  12. Time series count data models: an empirical application to traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Quddus, Mohammed A

    2008-09-01

    Count data are primarily categorised as cross-sectional, time series, and panel. Over the past decade, Poisson and Negative Binomial (NB) models have been used widely to analyse cross-sectional and time series count data, and random effect and fixed effect Poisson and NB models have been used to analyse panel count data. However, recent literature suggests that although the underlying distributional assumptions of these models are appropriate for cross-sectional count data, they are not capable of taking into account the effect of serial correlation often found in pure time series count data. Real-valued time series models, such as the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, introduced by Box and Jenkins have been used in many applications over the last few decades. However, when modelling non-negative integer-valued data such as traffic accidents at a junction over time, Box and Jenkins models may be inappropriate. This is mainly due to the normality assumption of errors in the ARIMA model. Over the last few years, a new class of time series models known as integer-valued autoregressive (INAR) Poisson models, has been studied by many authors. This class of models is particularly applicable to the analysis of time series count data as these models hold the properties of Poisson regression and able to deal with serial correlation, and therefore offers an alternative to the real-valued time series models. The primary objective of this paper is to introduce the class of INAR models for the time series analysis of traffic accidents in Great Britain. Different types of time series count data are considered: aggregated time series data where both the spatial and temporal units of observation are relatively large (e.g., Great Britain and years) and disaggregated time series data where both the spatial and temporal units are relatively small (e.g., congestion charging zone and months). The performance of the INAR models is compared with the class of Box and

  13. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of food pathway results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the food pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 87 imprecisely-known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, milk growing season dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, area dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, condemnation area, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: fraction of cesium deposition on grain fields that is retained on plant surfaces and transferred directly to grain, maximum allowable ground concentrations of Cs-137 and Sr-90 for production of crops, ground concentrations of Cs-134, Cs-137 and I-131 at which the disposal of milk will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, ground concentrations of Cs-134, I-131 and Sr-90 at which the disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season, rate of depletion of Cs-137 and Sr-90 from the root zone, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, transfer of Cs-137 from soil to pasture, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, and the transfer of cesium, iodine and strontium from animal feed to milk.

  14. Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear accidents: what has changed in the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling?

    PubMed

    Benamrane, Y; Wybo, J-L; Armand, P

    2013-12-01

    The threat of a major accidental or deliberate event that would lead to hazardous materials emission in the atmosphere is a great cause of concern to societies. This is due to the potential large scale of casualties and damages that could result from the release of explosive, flammable or toxic gases from industrial plants or transport accidents, radioactive material from nuclear power plants (NPPs), and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) terrorist attacks. In order to respond efficiently to such events, emergency services and authorities resort to appropriate planning and organizational patterns. This paper focuses on the use of atmospheric dispersion modeling (ADM) as a support tool for emergency planning and response, to assess the propagation of the hazardous cloud and thereby, take adequate counter measures. This paper intends to illustrate the noticeable evolution in the operational use of ADM tools over 25 y and especially in emergency situations. This study is based on data available in scientific publications and exemplified using the two most severe nuclear accidents: Chernobyl (1986) and Fukushima (2011). It appears that during the Chernobyl accident, ADM were used few days after the beginning of the accident mainly in a diagnosis approach trying to reconstruct what happened, whereas 25 y later, ADM was also used during the first days and weeks of the Fukushima accident to anticipate the potentially threatened areas. We argue that the recent developments in ADM tools play an increasing role in emergencies and crises management, by supporting stakeholders in anticipating, monitoring and assessing post-event damages. However, despite technological evolutions, its prognostic and diagnostic use in emergency situations still arise many issues.

  15. EIA model documentation: Petroleum Market Model of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1994-12-30

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of products, the production of natural gas liquids and domestic methanol, projects petroleum provides and sources of supplies for meeting demand. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption.

  16. Documentation for propane fleet conversion cost-effectiveness model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, D.; Euritt, M.; Mahmassani, H.

    1992-10-01

    Increased emphasis on energy efficiency and air quality has resulted in a number of state and federal initiatives examining the use of alternative fuels for motor vehicles. Texas instituted an alternative fuels program for public fleet operations beginning in the 1991-92 fiscal year. Life-cycle cost/benefit models for evaluating the economic implications of the action have been developed at the University of Texas at Austin Center for Transportation Research for both compressed natural gas (CNG) and propane. The report documents the various input data, calculations, and assumptions of the Propane Net Present Value (NPV) model. A similar report (number 983-1) documents the same for the CNG model. Input data with constant values across different fleets and locations are discussed first and include basic parameters for on-board storage capacity, vehicle conversion costs, equipment salvage values, etc. Variable input data, reflecting a given fleet size, composition, and location, include the number and types of vehicles, fuel consumption, etc. The next section presents the formulas for the internal model calculations. The final section discusses the basic assumptions underlying the model.

  17. Initial VHTR accident scenario classification: models and data.

    SciTech Connect

    Vilim, R. B.; Feldman, E. E.; Pointer, W. D.; Wei, T. Y. C.; Nuclear Engineering Division

    2005-09-30

    Nuclear systems codes are being prepared for use as computational tools for conducting performance/safety analyses of the Very High Temperature Reactor. The thermal-hydraulic codes are RELAP5/ATHENA for one-dimensional systems modeling and FLUENT and/or Star-CD for three-dimensional modeling. We describe a formal qualification framework, the development of Phenomena Identification and Ranking Tables (PIRTs), the initial filtering of the experiment databases, and a preliminary screening of these codes for use in the performance/safety analyses. In the second year of this project we focused on development of PIRTS. Two events that result in maximum fuel and vessel temperatures, the Pressurized Conduction Cooldown (PCC) event and the Depressurized Conduction Cooldown (DCC) event, were selected for PIRT generation. A third event that may result in significant thermal stresses, the Load Change event, is also selected for PIRT generation. Gas reactor design experience and engineering judgment were used to identify the important phenomena in the primary system for these events. Sensitivity calculations performed with the RELAP5 code were used as an aid to rank the phenomena in order of importance with respect to the approach of plant response to safety limits. The overall code qualification methodology was illustrated by focusing on the Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS). The mixed convection mode of heat transfer and pressure drop is identified as an important phenomenon for Reactor Cavity Cooling System (RCCS) operation. Scaling studies showed that the mixed convection mode is likely to occur in the RCCS air duct during normal operation and during conduction cooldown events. The RELAP5/ATHENA code was found to not adequately treat the mixed convection regime. Readying the code will require adding models for the turbulent mixed convection regime while possibly performing new experiments for the laminar mixed convection regime. Candidate correlations for the turbulent

  18. Phase-Change Modelling in Severe Nuclear Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pain, Christopher; Pavlidis, Dimitrios; Xie, Zhihua; Percival, James; Gomes, Jefferson; Matar, Omar; Moatamedi, Moji; Tehrani, Ali; Jones, Alan; Smith, Paul

    2014-11-01

    This paper describes progress on a consistent approach for multi-phase flow modelling with phase-change. Although, the developed methods are general purpose the applications presented here cover core melt phenomena at the lower vessel head. These include corium pool formation, coolability and solidification. With respect to external cooling, comparison with the LIVE experiments (from Karlsruhe) is undertaken. Preliminary re-flooding simulation results are also presented. These include water injection into porous media (debris bed) and boiling. Numerical simulations follow IRSN's PEARL experimental programme on quenching/re-flooding. The authors wish to thank Prof. Timothy Haste of IRSN. Dr. D. Pavlidis is funded by EPSRC Consortium ``Computational Modelling for Advanced Nuclear Plants,'' Grant Number EP/I003010/1.

  19. World Energy Projection System Plus Model Documentation: Commercial Model

    EIA Publications

    2016-01-01

    The Commercial Model of the World Energy Projection System Plus (WEPS ) is an energy demand modeling system of the world commercial end?use sector at a regional level. This report describes the version of the Commercial Model that was used to produce the commercial sector projections published in the International Energy Outlook 2016 (IEO2016). The Commercial Model is one of 13 components of the WEPS system. The WEPS is a modular system, consisting of a number of separate energy models that are communicate and work with each other through an integrated system model. The model components are each developed independently, but are designed with well?defined protocols for system communication and interactivity. The WEPS modeling system uses a shared database (the “restart” file) that allows all the models to communicate with each other when they are run in sequence over a number of iterations. The overall WEPS system uses an iterative solution technique that forces convergence of consumption and supply pressures to solve for an equilibrium price.

  20. Model documentation renewable fuels module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1997-04-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the 1997 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs. and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. This documentation report serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document for model analysts, model users, and the public interested in the construction and application of the RFM. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Finally, such documentation facilitates continuity in EIA model development by providing information sufficient to perform model enhancements and data updates as part of EIA`s ongoing mission to provide analytical and forecasting information systems.

  1. GASCAP: Wellhead Gas Productive Capacity Model documentation, June 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-07-01

    The Wellhead Gas Productive Capacity Model (GASCAP) has been developed by EIA to provide a historical analysis of the monthly productive capacity of natural gas at the wellhead and a projection of monthly capacity for 2 years into the future. The impact of drilling, oil and gas price assumptions, and demand on gas productive capacity are examined. Both gas-well gas and oil-well gas are included. Oil-well gas productive capacity is estimated separately and then combined with the gas-well gas productive capacity. This documentation report provides a general overview of the GASCAP Model, describes the underlying data base, provides technical descriptions of the component models, diagrams the system and subsystem flow, describes the equations, and provides definitions and sources of all variables used in the system. This documentation report is provided to enable users of EIA projections generated by GASCAP to understand the underlying procedures used and to replicate the models and solutions. This report should be of particular interest to those in the Congress, Federal and State agencies, industry, and the academic community, who are concerned with the future availability of natural gas.

  2. Simulation Modeling Requirements for Loss-of-Control Accident Prevention of Turboprop Transport Aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crider, Dennis; Foster, John V.

    2012-01-01

    In-flight loss of control remains the leading contributor to aviation accident fatalities, with stall upsets being the leading causal factor. The February 12, 2009. Colgan Air, Inc., Continental Express flight 3407 accident outside Buffalo, New York, brought this issue to the forefront of public consciousness and resulted in recommendations from the National Transportation Safety Board to conduct training that incorporates stalls that are fully developed and develop simulator standards to support such training. In 2010, Congress responded to this accident with Public Law 11-216 (Section 208), which mandates full stall training for Part 121 flight operations. Efforts are currently in progress to develop recommendations on implementation of stall training for airline pilots. The International Committee on Aviation Training in Extended Envelopes (ICATEE) is currently defining simulator fidelity standards that will be necessary for effective stall training. These recommendations will apply to all civil transport aircraft including straight-wing turboprop aircraft. Government-funded research over the previous decade provides a strong foundation for stall/post-stall simulation for swept-wing, conventional tail jets to respond to this mandate, but turboprops present additional and unique modeling challenges. First among these challenges is the effect of power, which can provide enhanced flow attachment behind the propellers. Furthermore, turboprops tend to operate for longer periods in an environment more susceptible to ice. As a result, there have been a significant number of turboprop accidents as a result of the early (lower angle of attack) stalls in icing. The vulnerability of turboprop configurations to icing has led to studies on ice accumulation and the resulting effects on flight behavior. Piloted simulations of these effects have highlighted the important training needs for recognition and mitigation of icing effects, including the reduction of stall margins

  3. Short-Termed Integrated Forecasting System: 1993 Model documentation report

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1993-05-01

    The purpose of this report is to define the Short-Term Integrated Forecasting System (STIFS) and describe its basic properties. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) of the US Energy Department (DOE) developed the STIFS model to generate short-term (up to 8 quarters), monthly forecasts of US supplies, demands, imports exports, stocks, and prices of various forms of energy. The models that constitute STIFS generate forecasts for a wide range of possible scenarios, including the following ones done routinely on a quarterly basis: A base (mid) world oil price and medium economic growth. A low world oil price and high economic growth. A high world oil price and low economic growth. This report is written for persons who want to know how short-term energy markets forecasts are produced by EIA. The report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public.

  4. Model documentation Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    1996-02-26

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) of the National Energy Modeling System is developed and maintained by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Office of Integrated Analysis and Forecasting. This report documents the archived version of the NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 1996, (DOE/EIA-0383(96)). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic approach, and provides detail on the methodology employed. Previously this report represented Volume I of a two-volume set. Volume II reported on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.

  5. A Complex Network Model for Analyzing Railway Accidents Based on the Maximal Information Coefficient

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shao, Fu-Bo; Li, Ke-Ping

    2016-10-01

    It is an important issue to identify important influencing factors in railway accident analysis. In this paper, employing the good measure of dependence for two-variable relationships, the maximal information coefficient (MIC), which can capture a wide range of associations, a complex network model for railway accident analysis is designed in which nodes denote factors of railway accidents and edges are generated between two factors of which MIC values are larger than or equal to the dependent criterion. The variety of network structure is studied. As the increasing of the dependent criterion, the network becomes to an approximate scale-free network. Moreover, employing the proposed network, important influencing factors are identified. And we find that the annual track density-gross tonnage factor is an important factor which is a cut vertex when the dependent criterion is equal to 0.3. From the network, it is found that the railway development is unbalanced for different states which is consistent with the fact. Supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities under Grant No. 2016YJS087, the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. U1434209, and the Research Foundation of State Key Laboratory of Railway Traffic Control and Safety, Beijing Jiaotong University under Grant No. RCS2016ZJ001

  6. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of early exposure results with the MACCS Reactor Accident Consequence Model

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; McKay, M.D.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the early health effects associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 34 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: number of early fatalities, number of cases of prodromal vomiting, population dose within 10 mi of the reactor, population dose within 1000 mi of the reactor, individual early fatality probability within 1 mi of the reactor, and maximum early fatality distance. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: scaling factor for horizontal dispersion, dry deposition velocity, inhalation protection factor for nonevacuees, groundshine shielding factor for nonevacuees, early fatality hazard function alpha value for bone marrow exposure, and scaling factor for vertical dispersion.

  7. Application of Gray Markov SCGM(1,1) c Model to Prediction of Accidents Deaths in Coal Mining.

    PubMed

    Lan, Jian-Yi; Zhou, Ying

    2014-01-01

    The prediction of mine accident is the basis of aviation safety assessment and decision making. Gray prediction is suitable for such kinds of system objects with few data, short time, and little fluctuation, and Markov chain theory is just suitable for forecasting stochastic fluctuating dynamic process. Analyzing the coal mine accident human error cause, combining the advantages of both Gray prediction and Markov theory, an amended Gray Markov SCGM(1,1) c model is proposed. The gray SCGM(1,1) c model is applied to imitate the development tendency of the mine safety accident, and adopt the amended model to improve prediction accuracy, while Markov prediction is used to predict the fluctuation along the tendency. Finally, the new model is applied to forecast the mine safety accident deaths from 1990 to 2010 in China, and, 2011-2014 coal accidents deaths were predicted. The results show that the new model not only discovers the trend of the mine human error accident death toll but also overcomes the random fluctuation of data affecting precision. It possesses stronger engineering application.

  8. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of chronic exposure results with the MACCS reactor accident consequence model

    SciTech Connect

    Helton, J.C.; Johnson, J.D.; Rollstin, J.A.; Shiver, A.W.; Sprung, J.L.

    1995-01-01

    Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques based on Latin hypercube sampling, partial correlation analysis and stepwise regression analysis are used in an investigation with the MACCS model of the chronic exposure pathways associated with a severe accident at a nuclear power station. The primary purpose of this study is to provide guidance on the variables to be considered in future review work to reduce the uncertainty in the important variables used in the calculation of reactor accident consequences. The effects of 75 imprecisely known input variables on the following reactor accident consequences are studied: crop growing season dose, crop long-term dose, water ingestion dose, milk growing season dose, long-term groundshine dose, long-term inhalation dose, total food pathways dose, total ingestion pathways dose, total long-term pathways dose, total latent cancer fatalities, area-dependent cost, crop disposal cost, milk disposal cost, population-dependent cost, total economic cost, condemnation area, condemnation population, crop disposal area and milk disposal area. When the predicted variables are considered collectively, the following input variables were found to be the dominant contributors to uncertainty: dry deposition velocity, transfer of cesium from animal feed to milk, transfer of cesium from animal feed to meat, ground concentration of Cs-134 at which the disposal of milk products will be initiated, transfer of Sr-90 from soil to legumes, maximum allowable ground concentration of Sr-90 for production of crops, fraction of cesium entering surface water that is consumed in drinking water, groundshine shielding factor, scale factor defining resuspension, dose reduction associated with decontamination, and ground concentration of 1-131 at which disposal of crops will be initiated due to accidents that occur during the growing season.

  9. Validation of advanced NSSS simulator model for loss-of-coolant accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Kao, S.P.; Chang, S.K.; Huang, H.C.

    1995-09-01

    The replacement of the NSSS (Nuclear Steam Supply System) model on the Millstone 2 full-scope simulator has significantly increased its fidelity to simulate adverse conditions in the RCS. The new simulator NSSS model is a real-time derivative of the Nuclear Plant Analyzer by ABB. The thermal-hydraulic model is a five-equation, non-homogeneous model for water, steam, and non-condensible gases. The neutronic model is a three-dimensional nodal diffusion model. In order to certify the new NSSS model for operator training, an extensive validation effort has been performed by benchmarking the model performance against RELAP5/MOD2. This paper presents the validation results for the cases of small-and large-break loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA). Detailed comparisons in the phenomena of reflux-condensation, phase separation, and two-phase natural circulation are discussed.

  10. Development of hydrogeological modelling approaches for assessment of consequences of hazardous accidents at nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Rumynin, V.G.; Mironenko, V.A.; Konosavsky, P.K.; Pereverzeva, S.A.

    1994-07-01

    This paper introduces some modeling approaches for predicting the influence of hazardous accidents at nuclear reactors on groundwater quality. Possible pathways for radioactive releases from nuclear power plants were considered to conceptualize boundary conditions for solving the subsurface radionuclides transport problems. Some approaches to incorporate physical-and-chemical interactions into transport simulators have been developed. The hydrogeological forecasts were based on numerical and semi-analytical scale-dependent models. They have been applied to assess the possible impact of the nuclear power plants designed in Russia on groundwater reservoirs.

  11. Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-07

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1994 (AEO94). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1994 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, section 57.b.2). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  12. Model documentation report: Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook for 1997 (AEO 97). The report catalogues and describes the module assumptions, computations, methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and mainframe source code. This document serves three purposes. First it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS MAM used for the AEO 1997 production runs for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  13. Analysis 320 coal mine accidents using structural equation modeling with unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations as exogenous variables.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Yingyu; Shao, Wei; Zhang, Mengjia; Li, Hejun; Yin, Shijiu; Xu, Yingjun

    2016-07-01

    Mining has been historically considered as a naturally high-risk industry worldwide. Deaths caused by coal mine accidents are more than the sum of all other accidents in China. Statistics of 320 coal mine accidents in Shandong province show that all accidents contain indicators of "unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations" with a frequency of 1590, accounting for 74.3% of the total frequency of 2140. "Unsafe behaviors of the operator" is another important contributory factor, which mainly includes "operator error" and "venturing into dangerous places." A systems analysis approach was applied by using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine the interactions between the contributory factors of coal mine accidents. The analysis of results leads to three conclusions. (i) "Unsafe conditions of the rules and regulations," affect the "unsafe behaviors of the operator," "unsafe conditions of the equipment," and "unsafe conditions of the environment." (ii) The three influencing factors of coal mine accidents (with the frequency of effect relation in descending order) are "lack of safety education and training," "rules and regulations of safety production responsibility," and "rules and regulations of supervision and inspection." (iii) The three influenced factors (with the frequency in descending order) of coal mine accidents are "venturing into dangerous places," "poor workplace environment," and "operator error."

  14. Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports according to Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

  15. Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document that provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports according to Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements.

  16. Content Recognition and Context Modeling for Document Analysis and Retrieval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhu, Guangyu

    2009-01-01

    The nature and scope of available documents are changing significantly in many areas of document analysis and retrieval as complex, heterogeneous collections become accessible to virtually everyone via the web. The increasing level of diversity presents a great challenge for document image content categorization, indexing, and retrieval.…

  17. Platte River Forum for the Future: workshop model documentation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    1983-01-01

    The Platte River Forum for the Future (PRFF) is an effort by the Nebraska Natural Resources Commission (NNRC) to bring together representatives of interests and agencies concerned with management of the Platte River and, assisted by various computer technologies, to reach some degree of agreement on the “best uses” of the remaining waters of the Platte. Simulation modeling is being used in this effort as a focal point for developing a common understanding of the behavior of the Platte River system, synthesizing existing information, identifying additional needed information, and analyzing the potential consequences of various management alternatives. The NNRC initiated the project in August 1982 by convening a workshop for interested parties in Grand Island, Nebraska. This workshop was devoted to construction of a preliminary simulation model describing the Platte River system. A group of facilitators/modelers from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) assisted participants in translating their understanding of the Platte River into the framework of the model. In October 1982, FWS personnel began a process of training several people from Nebraska in the use of the model. At that time, minor revisions and corrections were made in the model and various development scenarios were prepared for discussion with participants at a second workshop, which was held in early November 1982. The purpose of this report is to document the status of the PRFF simulation model as of the end of the November 1982 meeting. We emphasize that the intent is not to describe a final product. Except for minor revisions and correction of obvious errors, the model described herein is that which existed at the end of the August workshop. The model contains the foundation for a comprehensive aid to decisionmakers, but at this time it is preliminary in nature, needing refinement and verification before it can be truly useful in analyzing management alternatives. The purpose of this report

  18. Systems thinking, the Swiss Cheese Model and accident analysis: a comparative systemic analysis of the Grayrigg train derailment using the ATSB, AcciMap and STAMP models.

    PubMed

    Underwood, Peter; Waterson, Patrick

    2014-07-01

    The Swiss Cheese Model (SCM) is the most popular accident causation model and is widely used throughout various industries. A debate exists in the research literature over whether the SCM remains a viable tool for accident analysis. Critics of the model suggest that it provides a sequential, oversimplified view of accidents. Conversely, proponents suggest that it embodies the concepts of systems theory, as per the contemporary systemic analysis techniques. The aim of this paper was to consider whether the SCM can provide a systems thinking approach and remain a viable option for accident analysis. To achieve this, the train derailment at Grayrigg was analysed with an SCM-based model (the ATSB accident investigation model) and two systemic accident analysis methods (AcciMap and STAMP). The analysis outputs and usage of the techniques were compared. The findings of the study showed that each model applied the systems thinking approach. However, the ATSB model and AcciMap graphically presented their findings in a more succinct manner, whereas STAMP more clearly embodied the concepts of systems theory. The study suggests that, whilst the selection of an analysis method is subject to trade-offs that practitioners and researchers must make, the SCM remains a viable model for accident analysis.

  19. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1995-02-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. This report serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1)). Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects.

  20. Model documentation: Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model of the National Energy Modeling System; Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    1994-02-24

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is a component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. This report documents the archived version of NGTDM that was used to produce the natural gas forecasts used in support of the Annual Energy Outlook 1994, DOE/EIA-0383(94). The purpose of this report is to provide a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public that defines the objectives of the model, describes its basic design, provides detail on the methodology employed, and describes the model inputs, outputs, and key assumptions. It is intended to fulfill the legal obligation of the EIA to provide adequate documentation in support of its models (Public Law 94-385, Section 57.b.2). This report represents Volume 1 of a two-volume set. (Volume 2 will report on model performance, detailing convergence criteria and properties, results of sensitivity testing, comparison of model outputs with the literature and/or other model results, and major unresolved issues.) Subsequent chapters of this report provide: (1) an overview of the NGTDM (Chapter 2); (2) a description of the interface between the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and the NGTDM (Chapter 3); (3) an overview of the solution methodology of the NGTDM (Chapter 4); (4) the solution methodology for the Annual Flow Module (Chapter 5); (5) the solution methodology for the Distributor Tariff Module (Chapter 6); (6) the solution methodology for the Capacity Expansion Module (Chapter 7); (7) the solution methodology for the Pipeline Tariff Module (Chapter 8); and (8) a description of model assumptions, inputs, and outputs (Chapter 9).

  1. Accident progression event tree analysis for postulated severe accidents at N Reactor

    SciTech Connect

    Wyss, G.D.; Camp, A.L.; Miller, L.A.; Dingman, S.E.; Kunsman, D.M. ); Medford, G.T. )

    1990-06-01

    A Level II/III probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) has been performed for N Reactor, a Department of Energy (DOE) production reactor located on the Hanford reservation in Washington. The accident progression analysis documented in this report determines how core damage accidents identified in the Level I PRA progress from fuel damage to confinement response and potential releases the environment. The objectives of the study are to generate accident progression data for the Level II/III PRA source term model and to identify changes that could improve plant response under accident conditions. The scope of the analysis is comprehensive, excluding only sabotage and operator errors of commission. State-of-the-art methodology is employed based largely on the methods developed by Sandia for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission in support of the NUREG-1150 study. The accident progression model allows complex interactions and dependencies between systems to be explicitly considered. Latin Hypecube sampling was used to assess the phenomenological and systemic uncertainties associated with the primary and confinement system responses to the core damage accident. The results of the analysis show that the N Reactor confinement concept provides significant radiological protection for most of the accident progression pathways studied.

  2. Model documentation report: Industrial sector demand module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1997-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Industrial Demand Model. The report catalogues and describes model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and model source code. This document serves three purposes. First, it is a reference document providing a detailed description of the NEMS Industrial Model for model analysts, users, and the public. Second, this report meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. Third, it facilitates continuity in model development by providing documentation from which energy analysts can undertake model enhancements, data updates, and parameter refinements as future projects. The NEMS Industrial Demand Model is a dynamic accounting model, bringing together the disparate industries and uses of energy in those industries, and putting them together in an understandable and cohesive framework. The Industrial Model generates mid-term (up to the year 2015) forecasts of industrial sector energy demand as a component of the NEMS integrated forecasting system. From the NEMS system, the Industrial Model receives fuel prices, employment data, and the value of industrial output. Based on the values of these variables, the Industrial Model passes back to the NEMS system estimates of consumption by fuel types.

  3. EIA model documentation: Petroleum market model of the national energy modeling system

    SciTech Connect

    1995-12-28

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the Petroleum Market Model (PMM), describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. This report is intended as a reference document for model analysts, users, and the public. Documentation of the model is in accordance with EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The PMM models petroleum refining activities, the marketing of petroleum products to consumption regions, the production of natural gas liquids in gas processing plants, and domestic methanol production. The PMM projects petroleum product prices and sources of supply for meeting petroleum product demand. The sources of supply include crude oil, both domestic and imported; other inputs including alcohols and ethers; natural gas plant liquids production; petroleum product imports; and refinery processing gain. In addition, the PMM estimates domestic refinery capacity expansion and fuel consumption. Product prices are estimated at the Census division level and much of the refining activity information is at the Petroleum Administration for Defense (PAD) District level.

  4. A combined M5P tree and hazard-based duration model for predicting urban freeway traffic accident durations.

    PubMed

    Lin, Lei; Wang, Qian; Sadek, Adel W

    2016-06-01

    The duration of freeway traffic accidents duration is an important factor, which affects traffic congestion, environmental pollution, and secondary accidents. Among previous studies, the M5P algorithm has been shown to be an effective tool for predicting incident duration. M5P builds a tree-based model, like the traditional classification and regression tree (CART) method, but with multiple linear regression models as its leaves. The problem with M5P for accident duration prediction, however, is that whereas linear regression assumes that the conditional distribution of accident durations is normally distributed, the distribution for a "time-to-an-event" is almost certainly nonsymmetrical. A hazard-based duration model (HBDM) is a better choice for this kind of a "time-to-event" modeling scenario, and given this, HBDMs have been previously applied to analyze and predict traffic accidents duration. Previous research, however, has not yet applied HBDMs for accident duration prediction, in association with clustering or classification of the dataset to minimize data heterogeneity. The current paper proposes a novel approach for accident duration prediction, which improves on the original M5P tree algorithm through the construction of a M5P-HBDM model, in which the leaves of the M5P tree model are HBDMs instead of linear regression models. Such a model offers the advantage of minimizing data heterogeneity through dataset classification, and avoids the need for the incorrect assumption of normality for traffic accident durations. The proposed model was then tested on two freeway accident datasets. For each dataset, the first 500 records were used to train the following three models: (1) an M5P tree; (2) a HBDM; and (3) the proposed M5P-HBDM, and the remainder of data were used for testing. The results show that the proposed M5P-HBDM managed to identify more significant and meaningful variables than either M5P or HBDMs. Moreover, the M5P-HBDM had the lowest overall mean

  5. Bayesian spatial and ecological models for small-area accident and injury analysis.

    PubMed

    MacNab, Ying C

    2004-11-01

    In this article, recently developed Bayesian spatial and ecological regression models are applied to analyse small-area variation in accident and injury. This study serves to demonstrate how Bayesian modelling techniques can be implemented to assess potential risk factors measured at group (e.g. area) level. Presented here is a unified modelling framework that enables thorough investigations into associations between injury rates and regional characteristics, residual variation and spatial autocorrelation. Using hospital separation data for 83 local health areas in British Columbia (BC), Canada, in 1990-1999, we explore and examine ecological/contextual determinants of motor vehicle accident injury (MVAI) among male children and youth aged 0-24 and for those of six age groups (<1, 1-4, 5-9, 10-14, 15-19 and 20-24). Eighteen local health area characteristics are studied. They include a broad spectrum of socio-economic indicators, residential environment indicators (roads and parks), medical services availability and utilisation, population health, proportion of recent immigrants, crime rates, rates of speeding charge and rates of seatbelt violation. Our study indicates a large regional variation in MVAI in males aged 0-24 in British Columbia, Canada, in 1990-1999, and that adjusting for appropriate risk factors eliminates nearly all the variation observed. Socio-economic influence on MVAI was profoundly apparent in young males of all ages with the injury being more common in communities of lower socio-economic status. High adult male crime rates were significantly associated with high injury rates of boys aged 1-14. Seatbelt violations and excess speeding charges were found to be positively associated with the injury rates of young men aged 20-24. This and similar ecological studies shed light on reasons for regional variations in accident occurrence as well as in the resulting injuries and hospital utilisation. Thereby they are potentially useful in identifying

  6. Transport and fate modeling of nitrobenzene in groundwater after the Songhua River pollution accident.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Wenjing; Lin, Xueyu; Su, Xiaosi

    2010-11-01

    In 2005 a pollution accident occurred in the Songhua River, which is geographically located next to groundwater supply plants. This caused public concern about the transport and fate of nitrobenzene (NB) in the groundwater. This paper discusses the mechanisms and effects of the transport and fate of NB in groundwater based on pilot scale experiments conducted in the laboratory, including a simulation experiment, bench-scale batch tests and a one-dimensional numerical model. Parallel batch tests showed that the adsorption of NB to the clay and sand followed the Langmuir-type isotherm, and clay had a greater NB adsorption capacity than sand. NB biodegradation in different conditions was well fitted by the Monod equation and the q(max) values varied from 0.018 to 0.046 h(-1). Results indicated that NB's biodegradation was not affected by the initial NB concentration. Numerical modeling results indicated a good match between computed and observed data, and in the prediction model NB entered the groundwater after the pollution accident. However, the highest concentration of NB was much lower than the allowable limit set by the national standard (0.017 mg/L).

  7. Documentation of the Ecological Risk Assessment Computer Model ECORSK.5

    SciTech Connect

    Anthony F. Gallegos; Gilbert J. Gonzales

    1999-06-01

    The FORTRAN77 ecological risk computer model--ECORSK.5--has been used to estimate the potential toxicity of surficial deposits of radioactive and non-radioactive contaminants to several threatened and endangered (T and E) species at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). These analyses to date include preliminary toxicity estimates for the Mexican spotted owl, the American peregrine falcon, the bald eagle, and the southwestern willow flycatcher. This work has been performed as required for the Record of Decision for the construction of the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test (DARHT) Facility at LANL as part of the Environmental Impact Statement. The model is dependent on the use of the geographic information system and associated software--ARC/INFO--and has been used in conjunction with LANL's Facility for Information Management and Display (FIMAD) contaminant database. The integration of FIMAD data and ARC/INFO using ECORSK.5 allows the generation of spatial information from a gridded area of potential exposure called an Ecological Exposure Unit. ECORSK.5 was used to simulate exposures using a modified Environmental Protection Agency Quotient Method. The model can handle a large number of contaminants within the home range of T and E species. This integration results in the production of hazard indices which, when compared to risk evaluation criteria, estimate the potential for impact from consumption of contaminants in food and ingestion of soil. The assessment is considered a Tier-2 type of analysis. This report summarizes and documents the ECORSK.5 code, the mathematical models used in the development of ECORSK.5, and the input and other requirements for its operation. Other auxiliary FORTRAN 77 codes used for processing and graphing output from ECORSK.5 are also discussed. The reader may refer to reports cited in the introduction to obtain greater detail on past applications of ECORSK.5 and assumptions used in deriving model parameters.

  8. Low-power and shutdown models for the accident sequence precursor (ASP) program

    SciTech Connect

    Sattison, M.B.; Thatcher, T.A.; Knudsen, J.K.

    1997-02-01

    The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has been using full-power. Level 1, limited-scope risk models for the Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program for over fifteen years. These models have evolved and matured over the years, as have probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) and computer technologies. Significant upgrading activities have been undertaken over the past three years, with involvement from the Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR), Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD), and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), and several national laboratories. Part of these activities was an RES-sponsored feasibility study investigating the ability to extend the ASP models to include contributors to core damage from events initiated with the reactor at low power or shutdown (LP/SD), both internal events and external events. This paper presents only the LP/SD internal event modeling efforts.

  9. Asynchronous Distributed Estimation of Topic Models for Document Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-03-01

    eigenvalue decomposition of the data covariance matrix [16]. Latent Semantic Analysis (LSA) can be viewed as the application of PCA to documents [17]. When...document counts is decomposed via singular value decomposition, allowing documents to be mapped to a lower dimensional space. Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis...Springer New York, 2002. [17] S. Deerwester, S. Dumais, G. Furnas, T. Landauer, R. Harshman, Indexing by latent semantic analysis, Journal of the

  10. MPS Solidification Model. Volume 2: Operating guide and software documentation for the unsteady model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maples, A. L.

    1981-01-01

    The operation of solidification Model 2 is described and documentation of the software associated with the model is provided. Model 2 calculates the macrosegregation in a rectangular ingot of a binary alloy as a result of unsteady horizontal axisymmetric bidirectional solidification. The solidification program allows interactive modification of calculation parameters as well as selection of graphical and tabular output. In batch mode, parameter values are input in card image form and output consists of printed tables of solidification functions. The operational aspects of Model 2 that differ substantially from Model 1 are described. The global flow diagrams and data structures of Model 2 are included. The primary program documentation is the code itself.

  11. A Flexible Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling Technique for Risk Analysis of Major Accidents.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hongyang; Khan, Faisal; Veitch, Brian

    2017-02-28

    Safety analysis of rare events with potentially catastrophic consequences is challenged by data scarcity and uncertainty. Traditional causation-based approaches, such as fault tree and event tree (used to model rare event), suffer from a number of weaknesses. These include the static structure of the event causation, lack of event occurrence data, and need for reliable prior information. In this study, a new hierarchical Bayesian modeling based technique is proposed to overcome these drawbacks. The proposed technique can be used as a flexible technique for risk analysis of major accidents. It enables both forward and backward analysis in quantitative reasoning and the treatment of interdependence among the model parameters. Source-to-source variability in data sources is also taken into account through a robust probabilistic safety analysis. The applicability of the proposed technique has been demonstrated through a case study in marine and offshore industry.

  12. Information Model for Reusability in Clinical Trial Documentation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bahl, Bhanu

    2013-01-01

    In clinical research, New Drug Application (NDA) to health agencies requires generation of a large number of documents throughout the clinical development life cycle, many of which are also submitted to public databases and external partners. Current processes to assemble the information, author, review and approve the clinical research documents,…

  13. Topic Models for Link Prediction in Document Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kataria, Saurabh

    2012-01-01

    Recent explosive growth of interconnected document collections such as citation networks, network of web pages, content generated by crowd-sourcing in collaborative environments, etc., has posed several challenging problems for data mining and machine learning community. One central problem in the domain of document networks is that of "link…

  14. CFD modeling of debris melting phenomena during late phase Candu 6 severe accident

    SciTech Connect

    Nicolici, S.; Dupleac, D.; Prisecaru, I.

    2012-07-01

    The objective of this paper was to study the phase change of the debris formed on the Candu 6 calandria bottom in a postulated accident sequence. The molten pool and crust formation were studied employing the Ansys-Fluent code. The 3D model using Large Eddy Simulation (LES) predicts the conjugate, radiative and convective heat transfer inside and from the corium pool. LES simulations require a very fine grid to capture the crust formation and the free convection flow. This aspect (fine mesh requirement) correlated with the long transient has imposed the use of a slice from the 3D calandria geometry in order not to exceed the computing resources. The preliminary results include heat transfer coefficients, temperature profiles and heat fluxes through calandria wall. From the safety point of view it is very important to maintain a heat flux through the wall below the CHF assuring the integrity of the calandria vessel. This can be achieved by proper cooling of the tank water which contains the vessel. Also, transient duration can be estimated being important in developing guidelines for severe accidents management. The debris physical structure and material properties have large uncertainties in the temperature range of interest. Thus, further sensitivity studies should be carried out in order to better understand the influence of these parameters on this complex phenomenon. (authors)

  15. Model documentation Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1996-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analaytical approach and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the 1996 Annual Energy Outlook forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described.

  16. Applying STAMP in Accident Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leveson, Nancy; Daouk, Mirna; Dulac, Nicolas; Marais, Karen

    2003-01-01

    Accident models play a critical role in accident investigation and analysis. Most traditional models are based on an underlying chain of events. These models, however, have serious limitations when used for complex, socio-technical systems. Previously, Leveson proposed a new accident model (STAMP) based on system theory. In STAMP, the basic concept is not an event but a constraint. This paper shows how STAMP can be applied to accident analysis using three different views or models of the accident process and proposes a notation for describing this process.

  17. A model for nonvolatile fission product release during reactor accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Lewis, B.J.; Andre, B.; Ducros, G.; Maro, D.

    1996-10-01

    An analytical model has been developed to describe the release kinetics of nonvolatile fission products (e.g., molybdenum, cerium, ruthenium, and barium) from uranium dioxide fuel under severe reactor accident conditions. This treatment considers the rate-controlling process of release in accordance with diffusional transport in the fuel matrix and fission product vaporization from the fuel surface into the surrounding gas atmosphere. The effect of the oxygen potential in the gas atmosphere on the chemical form and volatility of the fission product is considered. A correlation is also developed to account for the trapping effects of antimony and tellurium in the Zircaloy cladding. This model interprets the release behavior of fission products observed in Commissariat a l`Energie Atomique experiments conducted in the HEVA/VERCORS facility at high temperature in a hydrogen and steam atmosphere.

  18. Embedding Term Similarity and Inverse Document Frequency into a Logical Model of Information Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Losada, David E.; Barreiro, Alvaro

    2003-01-01

    Proposes an approach to incorporate term similarity and inverse document frequency into a logical model of information retrieval. Highlights include document representation and matching; incorporating term similarity into the measure of distance; new algorithms for implementation; inverse document frequency; and logical versus classical models of…

  19. Fine-Grain Document Access Modeling and Monitoring

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-11-01

    13 6.1 Software tools and documents ......................................................................... 13 Appendix A: MTP ...stored in other formats such as PDF. This is discussed in Section 4.2. 3. The MTP (Malware Test Platform), a powerful document access generator that...literature. Our approach to address the challenge is the development of a test tool, the Malware Test Platform ( MTP ), which is capable of generating the

  20. Model documentation: Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it related to the production of the 1994 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO94) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. This documentation report serves two purposes. First, it is a reference document for model analysts, model users, and the public interested in the construction and application of the RFM. Second, it meets the legal requirement of the Energy Information Administration (EIA) to provide adequate documentation in support of its models. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources -- wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. Of these six, four are documented in the following chapters: municipal solid waste, wind, solar and biofuels. Geothermal and wood are not currently working components of NEMS. The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological and cost characteristics of renewable energy technologies, and to pass these characteristics to other NEMS modules for the determination of mid-term forecasted renewable energy demand.

  1. The five-factor model and driving behavior: personality and involvement in vehicular accidents.

    PubMed

    Cellar, D F; Nelson, Z C; Yorke, C M

    2000-04-01

    Participants completed both the NEO-PI-R personality measure and measures of prior involvement in driving accidents. Significant negative correlations were found between the factor of Agreeableness and the total number of driving tickets received as well as the sum of combined at-fault accidents, not-at-fault accidents, and driving tickets received by participants. Implications and potential future directions for research are discussed.

  2. PROCESS DOCUMENTATION: A MODEL FOR KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT IN ORGANIZATIONS

    PubMed Central

    Haddadpoor, Asefeh; Taheri, Behjat; Nasri, Mehran; Heydari, Kamal; Bahrami, Gholamreza

    2015-01-01

    Background: Continuous and interconnected processes are a chain of activities that turn the inputs of an organization to its outputs and help achieve partial and overall goals of the organization. These activates are carried out by two types of knowledge in the organization called explicit and implicit knowledge. Among these, implicit knowledge is the knowledge that controls a major part of the activities of an organization, controls these activities internally and will not be transferred to the process owners unless they are present during the organization’s work. Therefore the goal of this study is identification of implicit knowledge and its integration with explicit knowledge in order to improve human resources management, physical resource management, information resource management, training of new employees and other activities of Isfahan University of Medical Science. Methods: The project for documentation of activities in department of health of Isfahan University of Medical Science was carried out in several stages. First the main processes and related sub processes were identified and categorized with the help of planning expert. The categorization was carried out from smaller processes to larger ones. In this stage the experts of each process wrote down all their daily activities and organized them into general categories based on logical and physical relations between different activities. Then each activity was assigned a specific code. The computer software was designed after understanding the different parts of the processes, including main and sup processes, and categorization, which will be explained in the following sections. Results: The findings of this study showed that documentation of activities can help expose implicit knowledge because all of inputs and outputs of a process along with the length, location, tools and different stages of the process, exchanged information, storage location of the information and information flow can be

  3. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.S. . School of Public Health)

    1990-01-01

    This report describes dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. In addition, models are included for assessing the risks of several nonlethal early and continuing effects -- including prodromal vomiting and diarrhea, hypothyroidism and radiation thyroiditis, skin burns, reproductive effects, and pregnancy losses. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and other.'' The category, other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also developed. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. The models of cancer risk are derived largely from information summarized in BEIR III -- with some adjustment to reflect more recent studies. 64 refs., 18 figs., 46 tabs.

  4. TRACE/PARCS Core Modeling of a BWR/5 for Accident Analysis of ATWS Events

    SciTech Connect

    Cuadra A.; Baek J.; Cheng, L.; Aronson, A.; Diamond, D.; Yarsky, P.

    2013-11-10

    The TRACE/PARCS computational package [1, 2] isdesigned to be applicable to the analysis of light water reactor operational transients and accidents where the coupling between the neutron kinetics (PARCS) and the thermal-hydraulics and thermal-mechanics (TRACE) is important. TRACE/PARCS has been assessed for itsapplicability to anticipated transients without scram(ATWS) [3]. The challenge, addressed in this study, is to develop a sufficiently rigorous input model that would be acceptable for use in ATWS analysis. Two types of ATWS events were of interest, a turbine trip and a closure of main steam isolation valves (MSIVs). In the first type, initiated by turbine trip, the concern is that the core will become unstable and large power oscillations will occur. In the second type,initiated by MSIV closure,, the concern is the amount of energy being placed into containment and the resulting emergency depressurization. Two separate TRACE/PARCS models of a BWR/5 were developed to analyze these ATWS events at MELLLA+ (maximum extended load line limit plus)operating conditions. One model [4] was used for analysis of ATWS events leading to instability (ATWS-I);the other [5] for ATWS events leading to emergency depressurization (ATWS-ED). Both models included a large portion of the nuclear steam supply system and controls, and a detailed core model, presented henceforth.

  5. GASFLOW: A computational model to analyze accidents in nuclear containment and facility buildings

    SciTech Connect

    Travis, J.R. ); Nichols, B.D.; Wilson, T.L.; Lam, K.L.; Spore, J.W.; Niederauer, G.F. )

    1993-01-01

    GASFLOW is a finite-volume computer code that solves the time-dependent, compressible Navier-Stokes equations for multiple gas species. The fluid-dynamics algorithm is coupled to the chemical kinetics of combusting liquids or gases to simulate diffusion or propagating flames in complex geometries of nuclear containment or confinement and facilities' buildings. Fluid turbulence is calculated to enhance the transport and mixing of gases in rooms and volumes that may be connected by a ventilation system. The ventilation system may consist of extensive ductwork, filters, dampers or valves, and fans. Condensation and heat transfer to walls, floors, ceilings, and internal structures are calculated to model the appropriate energy sinks. Solid and liquid aerosol behavior is simulated to give the time and space inventory of radionuclides. The solution procedure of the governing equations is a modified Los Alamos ICE'd-ALE methodology. Complex facilities can be represented by separate computational domains (multiblocks) that communicate through overlapping boundary conditions. The ventilation system is superimposed throughout the multiblock mesh. Gas mixtures and aerosols are transported through the free three-dimensional volumes and the restricted one-dimensional ventilation components as the accident and fluid flow fields evolve. Combustion may occur if sufficient fuel and reactant or oxidizer are present and have an ignition source. Pressure and thermal loads on the building, structural components, and safety-related equipment can be determined for specific accident scenarios. GASFLOW calculations have been compared with large oil-pool fire tests in the 1986 HDR containment test T52.14, which is a 3000-kW fire experiment. The computed results are in good agreement with the observed data.

  6. Sensitivity study of the wet deposition schemes in the modelling of the Fukushima accident.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Quérel, Arnaud; Quélo, Denis; Roustan, Yelva; Mathieu, Anne; Kajino, Mizuo; Sekiyama, Thomas; Adachi, Kouji; Didier, Damien; Igarashi, Yasuhito

    2016-04-01

    The Fukushima-Daiichi release of radioactivity is a relevant event to study the atmospheric dispersion modelling of radionuclides. Actually, the atmospheric deposition onto the ground may be studied through the map of measured Cs-137 established consecutively to the accident. The limits of detection were low enough to make the measurements possible as far as 250km from the nuclear power plant. This large scale deposition has been modelled with the Eulerian model ldX. However, several weeks of emissions in multiple weather conditions make it a real challenge. Besides, these measurements are accumulated deposition of Cs-137 over the whole period and do not inform of deposition mechanisms involved: in-cloud, below-cloud, dry deposition. A comprehensive sensitivity analysis is performed in order to understand wet deposition mechanisms. It has been shown in a previous study (Quérel et al, 2016) that the choice of the wet deposition scheme has a strong impact on the assessment of the deposition patterns. Nevertheless, a "best" scheme could not be highlighted as it depends on the selected criteria: the ranking differs according to the statistical indicators considered (correlation, figure of merit in space and factor 2). A possibility to explain the difficulty to discriminate between several schemes was the uncertainties in the modelling, resulting from the meteorological data for instance. Since the move of the plume is not properly modelled, the deposition processes are applied with an inaccurate activity in the air. In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, new meteorological fields at higher resolution (Sekiyama et al., 2013) were provided and allows to reconsider the previous study. An updated study including these new meteorology data is presented. In addition, a focus on several releases causing deposition in located areas during known period was done. This helps to better understand the mechanisms of deposition involved following the

  7. Oil Spill Detection and Modelling: Preliminary Results for the Cercal Accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    da Costa, R. T.; Azevedo, A.; da Silva, J. C. B.; Oliveira, A.

    2013-03-01

    Oil spill research has significantly increased mainly as a result of the severe consequences experienced from industry accidents. Oil spill models are currently able to simulate the processes that determine the fate of oil slicks, playing an important role in disaster prevention, control and mitigation, generating valuable information for decision makers and the population in general. On the other hand, satellite Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery has demonstrated significant potential in accidental oil spill detection, when they are accurately differentiated from look-alikes. The combination of both tools can lead to breakthroughs, particularly in the development of Early Warning Systems (EWS). This paper presents a hindcast simulation of the oil slick resulting from the Motor Tanker (MT) Cercal oil spill, listed by the Portuguese Navy as one of the major oil spills in the Portuguese Atlantic Coast. The accident took place nearby Leix˜oes Harbour, North of the Douro River, Porto (Portugal) on the 2nd of October 1994. The oil slick was segmented from available European Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite SAR images, using an algorithm based on a simplified version of the K-means clustering formulation. The image-acquired information, added to the initial conditions and forcings, provided the necessary inputs for the oil spill model. Simulations were made considering the tri-dimensional hydrodynamics in a crossscale domain, from the interior of the Douro River Estuary to the open-ocean on the Iberian Atlantic shelf. Atmospheric forcings (from ECMWF - the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NOAA - the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), river forcings (from SNIRH - the Portuguese National Information System of the Hydric Resources) and tidal forcings (from LNEC - the National Laboratory for Civil Engineering), including baroclinic gradients (NOAA), were considered. The lack of data for validation purposes only allowed the use of the

  8. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1997-02-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the Coal Production Submodule (CPS). It provides a description of the CPS for model analysts and the public. The Coal Market Module provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal.

  9. Model documentation Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1996-04-30

    This report documents objectives and conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1996 (AEO96). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s three submodules: Coal Production Submodule, Coal Export Submodule, and Coal Distribution Submodule.

  10. VICTORIA: A mechanistic model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system under severe accident conditions. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Heams, T J; Williams, D A; Johns, N A; Mason, A; Bixler, N E; Grimley, A J; Wheatley, C J; Dickson, L W; Osborn-Lee, I; Domagala, P; Zawadzki, S; Rest, J; Alexander, C A; Lee, R Y

    1992-12-01

    The VICTORIA model of radionuclide behavior in the reactor coolant system (RCS) of a light water reactor during a severe accident is described. It has been developed by the USNRC to define the radionuclide phenomena and processes that must be considered in systems-level models used for integrated analyses of severe accident source terms. The VICTORIA code, based upon this model, predicts fission product release from the fuel, chemical reactions involving fission products, vapor and aerosol behavior, and fission product decay heating. Also included is a detailed description of how the model is implemented in VICTORIA, the numerical algorithms used, and the correlations and thermochemical data necessary for determining a solution. A description of the code structure, input and output, and a sample problem are provided.

  11. Using meteorological ensembles for atmospheric dispersion modelling of the Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Périllat, Raphaël; Korsakissok, Irène; Mallet, Vivien; Mathieu, Anne; Sekiyama, Thomas; Didier, Damien; Kajino, Mizuo; Igarashi, Yasuhito; Adachi, Kouji

    2016-04-01

    Dispersion models are used in response to an accidental release of radionuclides of the atmosphere, to infer mitigation actions, and complement field measurements for the assessment of short and long term environmental and sanitary impacts. However, the predictions of these models are subject to important uncertainties, especially due to input data, such as meteorological fields or source term. This is still the case more than four years after the Fukushima disaster (Korsakissok et al., 2012, Girard et al., 2014). In the framework of the SAKURA project, an MRI-IRSN collaboration, a meteorological ensemble of 20 members designed by MRI (Sekiyama et al. 2013) was used with IRSN's atmospheric dispersion models. Another ensemble, retrieved from ECMWF and comprising 50 members, was also used for comparison. The MRI ensemble is 3-hour assimilated, with a 3-kilometers resolution, designed to reduce the meteorological uncertainty in the Fukushima case. The ECMWF is a 24-hour forecast with a coarser grid, representative of the uncertainty of the data available in a crisis context. First, it was necessary to assess the quality of the ensembles for our purpose, to ensure that their spread was representative of the uncertainty of meteorological fields. Using meteorological observations allowed characterizing the ensembles' spread, with tools such as Talagrand diagrams. Then, the uncertainty was propagated through atmospheric dispersion models. The underlying question is whether the output spread is larger than the input spread, that is, whether small uncertainties in meteorological fields can produce large differences in atmospheric dispersion results. Here again, the use of field observations was crucial, in order to characterize the spread of the ensemble of atmospheric dispersion simulations. In the case of the Fukushima accident, gamma dose rates, air activities and deposition data were available. Based on these data, selection criteria for the ensemble members were

  12. EXPOSURE ANALYSIS MODELING SYSTEM (EXAMS): USER MANUAL AND SYSTEM DOCUMENTATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Exposure Analysis Modeling System, first published in 1982 (EPA-600/3-82-023), provides interactive computer software for formulating aquatic ecosystem models and rapidly evaluating the fate, transport, and exposure concentrations of synthetic organic chemicals - pesticides, ...

  13. Explicit Pharmacokinetic Modeling: Tools for Documentation, Verification, and Portability

    EPA Science Inventory

    Quantitative estimates of tissue dosimetry of environmental chemicals due to multiple exposure pathways require the use of complex mathematical models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models. The process of translating the abstract mathematics of a PBPK mode...

  14. TAFV Alternative Fuels and Vehicles Choice Model Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Greene, D.L.

    2001-07-27

    A model for predicting choice of alternative fuel and among alternative vehicle technologies for light-duty motor vehicles is derived. The nested multinomial logit (NML) mathematical framework is used. Calibration of the model is based on information in the existing literature and deduction based on assuming a small number of key parameters, such as the value of time and discount rates. A spreadsheet model has been developed for calibration and preliminary testing of the model.

  15. Model documentation report: Residential sector demand module of the national energy modeling system

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code. This reference document provides a detailed description for energy analysts, other users, and the public. The NEMS Residential Sector Demand Module is currently used for mid-term forecasting purposes and energy policy analysis over the forecast horizon of 1993 through 2020. The model generates forecasts of energy demand for the residential sector by service, fuel, and Census Division. Policy impacts resulting from new technologies, market incentives, and regulatory changes can be estimated using the module. 26 refs., 6 figs., 5 tabs.

  16. Comparing the Hematopoetic Syndrome Time Course in the NHP Animal Model to Radiation Accident Cases From the Database Search.

    PubMed

    Graessle, Dieter H; Dörr, Harald; Bennett, Alexander; Shapiro, Alla; Farese, Ann M; MacVittie, Thomas J; Meineke, Viktor

    2015-11-01

    Since controlled clinical studies on drug administration for the acute radiation syndrome are lacking, clinical data of human radiation accident victims as well as experimental animal models are the main sources of information. This leads to the question of how to compare and link clinical observations collected after human radiation accidents with experimental observations in non-human primate (NHP) models. Using the example of granulocyte counts in the peripheral blood following radiation exposure, approaches for adaptation between NHP and patient databases on data comparison and transformation are introduced. As a substitute for studying the effects of administration of granulocyte-colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) in human clinical trials, the method of mathematical modeling is suggested using the example of G-CSF administration to NHP after total body irradiation.

  17. Documentation, critique, and suggested changes in a simple ocean model

    SciTech Connect

    Taylor, K.E.

    1986-10-01

    A simple upwelling-diffusion model originally formulated by the NYU modeling group and described in Hoffert et al. (1983) has been rederived and critically analyzed. The purpose was to evaluate how to best incorporate the model into a climate model such as the Livermore Statistical Dynamical Model (LSDM). Hoffert's model was one of the first models to be used to study the question of the transient response of the ocean to climate perturbations. It successfully reproduces the equilibrium temperature structure of the deep ocean. I have found that there are some problems in the formulation of the model when it is applied at individual latitudes. I have offered a simple alternative that allows the thermohaline circulation to vary in such a way as to keep the polar temperature just above the freezing point. I have also corrected some inconsistencies in the poleward heat transport equations. Analytic solutions of the model equations under simple harmonic forcing have been found and can be used to verify the finite-difference schemes of numerical models. Full analysis of a more complex model that includes upwelling driven by surface wind stress has not yet been completed.

  18. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VII - Tritium Transport Model Documentation Package

    SciTech Connect

    1996-12-01

    Volume VII of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the tritium transport model documentation. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  19. Third Radiation Transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) exercise: Documenting progress in canopy reflectance models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Widlowski, J.-L.; Taberner, M.; Pinty, B.; Bruniquel-Pinel, V.; Disney, M.; Fernandes, R.; Gastellu-Etchegorry, J.-P.; Gobron, N.; Kuusk, A.; Lavergne, T.; Leblanc, S.; Lewis, P. E.; Martin, E.; Mõttus, M.; North, P. R. J.; Qin, W.; Robustelli, M.; Rochdi, N.; Ruiloba, R.; Soler, C.; Thompson, R.; Verhoef, W.; Verstraete, M. M.; Xie, D.

    2007-05-01

    The Radiation Transfer Model Intercomparison (RAMI) initiative benchmarks canopy reflectance models under well-controlled experimental conditions. Launched for the first time in 1999, this triennial community exercise encourages the systematic evaluation of canopy reflectance models on a voluntary basis. The first phase of RAMI focused on documenting the spread among radiative transfer (RT) simulations over a small set of primarily 1-D canopies. The second phase expanded the scope to include structurally complex 3-D plant architectures with and without background topography. Here sometimes significant discrepancies were noted which effectively prevented the definition of a reliable "surrogate truth," over heterogeneous vegetation canopies, against which other RT models could then be compared. The present paper documents the outcome of the third phase of RAMI, highlighting both the significant progress that has been made in terms of model agreement since RAMI-2 and the capability of/need for RT models to accurately reproduce local estimates of radiative quantities under conditions that are reminiscent of in situ measurements. Our assessment of the self-consistency and the relative and absolute performance of 3-D Monte Carlo models in RAMI-3 supports their usage in the generation of a "surrogate truth" for all RAMI test cases. This development then leads (1) to the presentation of the "RAMI Online Model Checker" (ROMC), an open-access web-based interface to evaluate RT models automatically, and (2) to a reassessment of the role, scope, and opportunities of the RAMI project in the future.

  20. Documenting Ground-Water Modeling at Sites Contaminated with Radioactive Substances

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This report is the product of the Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group. This report demonstrates how to document model applications in a consistent manner and is intended to assist technical staff.

  1. Program Documentation of the Plant Job Scheduling Model System

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-11-30

    Model is used to make initial computer runs and the Post Processor Model for subsequent "what if" evaluations . Accessing the programs for model runs and...changes to existing conventional ammunition programs and budoets based on varied options, and quickly evaluate efi,.cts of the changes. 2.2 System...up by FY, the screen would organize the data for that block in ascending order by ypar . 5.16.3 Verification Procedures. Verification of the program

  2. Health effects model for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part I. Introduction, integration, and summary. Part II. Scientific basis for health effects models

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.S.; Moeller, D.W.; Cooper, D.W.

    1985-07-01

    Analysis of the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents requires models for predicting early health effects, cancers and benign thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Since the publication of the Reactor Safety Study, additional information on radiological health effects has become available. This report summarizes the efforts of a program designed to provide revised health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence modeling. The new models for early effects address four causes of mortality and nine categories of morbidity. The models for early effects are based upon two parameter Weibull functions. They permit evaluation of the influence of dose protraction and address the issue of variation in radiosensitivity among the population. The piecewise-linear dose-response models used in the Reactor Safety Study to predict cancers and thyroid nodules have been replaced by linear and linear-quadratic models. The new models reflect the most recently reported results of the follow-up of the survivors of the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and permit analysis of both morbidity and mortality. The new models for genetic effects allow prediction of genetic risks in each of the first five generations after an accident and include information on the relative severity of various classes of genetic effects. The uncertainty in modeloling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of risks. An approach is outlined for summarizing the health consequences of nuclear power plant accidents. 298 refs., 9 figs., 49 tabs.

  3. WHAEM: PROGRAM DOCUMENTATION FOR THE WELLHEAD ANALYTIC ELEMENT MODEL

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Wellhead Analytic Element Model (WhAEM) demonstrates a new technique for the definition of time-of-travel capture zones in relatively simple geohydrologic settings. he WhAEM package includes an analytic element model that uses superposition of (many) analytic solutions to gen...

  4. Industrial Sector Energy Efficiency Modeling (ISEEM) Framework Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Karali, Nihan; Xu, Tengfang; Sathaye, Jayant

    2012-12-12

    The goal of this study is to develop a new bottom-up industry sector energy-modeling framework with an agenda of addressing least cost regional and global carbon reduction strategies, improving the capabilities and limitations of the existing models that allows trading across regions and countries as an alternative.

  5. Model documentation: Electricity market module, electricity finance and pricing submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The purpose of this report is to define the objectives of the model, describe its basic approach, and provide detail on how it works. The EFP is a regulatory accounting model that projects electricity prices. The model first solves for revenue requirements by building up a rate base, calculating a return on rate base, and adding the allowed expenses. Average revenues (prices) are calculated based on assumptions regarding regulator lag and customer cost allocation methods. The model then solves for the internal cash flow and analyzes the need for external financing to meet necessary capital expenditures. Finally, the EFP builds up the financial statements. The EFP is used in conjunction with the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). Inputs to the EFP include the forecast generating capacity expansion plans, operating costs, regulator environment, and financial data. The outputs include forecasts of income statements, balance sheets, revenue requirements, and electricity prices.

  6. The Computable Catchment: An executable document for model-data software sharing, reproducibility and interactive visualization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gil, Y.; Duffy, C.

    2015-12-01

    This paper proposes the concept of a "Computable Catchment" which is used to develop a collaborative platform for watershed modeling and data analysis. The object of the research is a sharable, executable document similar to a pdf, but one that includes documentation of the underlying theoretical concepts, interactive computational/numerical resources, linkage to essential data repositories and the ability for interactive model-data visualization and analysis. The executable document for each catchment is stored in the cloud with automatic provisioning and a unique identifier allowing collaborative model and data enhancements for historical hydroclimatic reconstruction and/or future landuse or climate change scenarios to be easily reconstructed or extended. The Computable Catchment adopts metadata standards for naming all variables in the model and the data. The a-priori or initial data is derived from national data sources for soils, hydrogeology, climate, and land cover available from the www.hydroterre.psu.edu data service (Leonard and Duffy, 2015). The executable document is based on Wolfram CDF or Computable Document Format with an interactive open-source reader accessible by any modern computing platform. The CDF file and contents can be uploaded to a website or simply shared as a normal document maintaining all interactive features of the model and data. The Computable Catchment concept represents one application for Geoscience Papers of the Future representing an extensible document that combines theory, models, data and analysis that are digitally shared, documented and reused among research collaborators, students, educators and decision makers.

  7. A Model for Enhancing Internet Medical Document Retrieval with “Medical Core Metadata”

    PubMed Central

    Malet, Gary; Munoz, Felix; Appleyard, Richard; Hersh, William

    1999-01-01

    Objective: Finding documents on the World Wide Web relevant to a specific medical information need can be difficult. The goal of this work is to define a set of document content description tags, or metadata encodings, that can be used to promote disciplined search access to Internet medical documents. Design: The authors based their approach on a proposed metadata standard, the Dublin Core Metadata Element Set, which has recently been submitted to the Internet Engineering Task Force. Their model also incorporates the National Library of Medicine's Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) vocabulary and Medline-type content descriptions. Results: The model defines a medical core metadata set that can be used to describe the metadata for a wide variety of Internet documents. Conclusions: The authors propose that their medical core metadata set be used to assign metadata to medical documents to facilitate document retrieval by Internet search engines. PMID:10094069

  8. Distributed Generation Market Demand Model (dGen): Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Sigrin, Benjamin; Gleason, Michael; Preus, Robert; Baring-Gould, Ian; Margolis, Robert

    2016-02-01

    The Distributed Generation Market Demand model (dGen) is a geospatially rich, bottom-up, market-penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of distributed energy resources (DERs) for residential, commercial, and industrial entities in the continental United States through 2050. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) developed dGen to analyze the key factors that will affect future market demand for distributed solar, wind, storage, and other DER technologies in the United States. The new model builds off, extends, and replaces NREL's SolarDS model (Denholm et al. 2009a), which simulates the market penetration of distributed PV only. Unlike the SolarDS model, dGen can model various DER technologies under one platform--it currently can simulate the adoption of distributed solar (the dSolar module) and distributed wind (the dWind module) and link with the ReEDS capacity expansion model (Appendix C). The underlying algorithms and datasets in dGen, which improve the representation of customer decision making as well as the spatial resolution of analyses (Figure ES-1), also are improvements over SolarDS.

  9. Modeling of BWR core meltdown accidents - for application in the MELRPI. MOD2 computer code

    SciTech Connect

    Koh, B R; Kim, S H; Taleyarkhan, R P; Podowski, M Z; Lahey, Jr, R T

    1985-04-01

    This report summarizes improvements and modifications made in the MELRPI computer code. A major difference between this new, updated version of the code, called MELRPI.MOD2, and the one reported previously, concerns the inclusion of a model for the BWR emergency core cooling systems (ECCS). This model and its computer implementation, the ECCRPI subroutine, account for various emergency injection modes, for both intact and rubblized geometries. Other changes to MELRPI deal with an improved model for canister wall oxidation, rubble bed modeling, and numerical integration of system equations. A complete documentation of the entire MELRPI.MOD2 code is also given, including an input guide, list of subroutines, sample input/output and program listing.

  10. Test Data for USEPR Severe Accident Code Validation

    SciTech Connect

    J. L. Rempe

    2007-05-01

    This document identifies data that can be used for assessing various models embodied in severe accident analysis codes. Phenomena considered in this document, which were limited to those anticipated to be of interest in assessing severe accidents in the USEPR developed by AREVA, include: • Fuel Heatup and Melt Progression • Reactor Coolant System (RCS) Thermal Hydraulics • In-Vessel Molten Pool Formation and Heat Transfer • Fuel/Coolant Interactions during Relocation • Debris Heat Loads to the Vessel • Vessel Failure • Molten Core Concrete Interaction (MCCI) and Reactor Cavity Plug Failure • Melt Spreading and Coolability • Hydrogen Control Each section of this report discusses one phenomenon of interest to the USEPR. Within each section, an effort is made to describe the phenomenon and identify what data are available modeling it. As noted in this document, models in US accident analysis codes (MAAP, MELCOR, and SCDAP/RELAP5) differ. Where possible, this report identifies previous assessments that illustrate the impact of modeling differences on predicting various phenomena. Finally, recommendations regarding the status of data available for modeling USEPR severe accident phenomena are summarized.

  11. Using phrases and document metadata to improve topic modeling of clinical reports.

    PubMed

    Speier, William; Ong, Michael K; Arnold, Corey W

    2016-06-01

    Probabilistic topic models provide an unsupervised method for analyzing unstructured text, which have the potential to be integrated into clinical automatic summarization systems. Clinical documents are accompanied by metadata in a patient's medical history and frequently contains multiword concepts that can be valuable for accurately interpreting the included text. While existing methods have attempted to address these problems individually, we present a unified model for free-text clinical documents that integrates contextual patient- and document-level data, and discovers multi-word concepts. In the proposed model, phrases are represented by chained n-grams and a Dirichlet hyper-parameter is weighted by both document-level and patient-level context. This method and three other Latent Dirichlet allocation models were fit to a large collection of clinical reports. Examples of resulting topics demonstrate the results of the new model and the quality of the representations are evaluated using empirical log likelihood. The proposed model was able to create informative prior probabilities based on patient and document information, and captured phrases that represented various clinical concepts. The representation using the proposed model had a significantly higher empirical log likelihood than the compared methods. Integrating document metadata and capturing phrases in clinical text greatly improves the topic representation of clinical documents. The resulting clinically informative topics may effectively serve as the basis for an automatic summarization system for clinical reports.

  12. Models and numerical methods for the simulation of loss-of-coolant accidents in nuclear reactors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Seguin, Nicolas

    2014-05-01

    In view of the simulation of the water flows in pressurized water reactors (PWR), many models are available in the literature and their complexity deeply depends on the required accuracy, see for instance [1]. The loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) may appear when a pipe is broken through. The coolant is composed by light water in its liquid form at very high temperature and pressure (around 300 °C and 155 bar), it then flashes and becomes instantaneously vapor in case of LOCA. A front of liquid/vapor phase transition appears in the pipes and may propagate towards the critical parts of the PWR. It is crucial to propose accurate models for the whole phenomenon, but also sufficiently robust to obtain relevant numerical results. Due to the application we have in mind, a complete description of the two-phase flow (with all the bubbles, droplets, interfaces…) is out of reach and irrelevant. We investigate averaged models, based on the use of void fractions for each phase, which represent the probability of presence of a phase at a given position and at a given time. The most accurate averaged model, based on the so-called Baer-Nunziato model, describes separately each phase by its own density, velocity and pressure. The two phases are coupled by non-conservative terms due to gradients of the void fractions and by source terms for mechanical relaxation, drag force and mass transfer. With appropriate closure laws, it has been proved [2] that this model complies with all the expected physical requirements: positivity of densities and temperatures, maximum principle for the void fraction, conservation of the mixture quantities, decrease of the global entropy… On the basis of this model, it is possible to derive simpler models, which can be used where the flow is still, see [3]. From the numerical point of view, we develop new Finite Volume schemes in [4], which also satisfy the requirements mentioned above. Since they are based on a partial linearization of the physical

  13. Learned Vector-Space Models for Document Retrieval.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caid, William R.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    The Latent Semantic Indexing and MatchPlus systems examine similar contexts in which words appear and create representational models that capture the similarity of meaning of terms and then use the representation for retrieval. Text Retrieval Conference experiments using these systems demonstrate the computational feasibility of using…

  14. Modelling the Reasons for Training Choices: Technical Paper. Support Document

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Smith, Andrew; Oczkowski, Eddie; Hill, Mark

    2009-01-01

    This report provides the technical details on the modelling aspects of identifying significant drivers for the reasons for using certain types of training and for the choice of training types. The employed data is from the 2005 Survey of Employer Use and Views of the VET system (SEUV). The data has previously been analysed in NCVER (2006). This…

  15. Nuclear accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Mobley, J.A.

    1982-05-01

    A nuclear accident with radioactive contamination can happen anywhere in the world. Because expert nuclear emergency teams may take several hours to arrive at the scene, local authorities must have a plan of action for the hours immediately following an accident. The site should be left untouched except to remove casualties. Treatment of victims includes decontamination and meticulous wound debridement. Acute radiation syndrome may be an overwhelming sequela.

  16. Application of models for exchange of electronic documents in complex administrative services

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Glavev, Victor

    2015-11-01

    The report presents application of models for exchange of electronic documents between different administrations in government and business sectors. It shows the benefits of implementing electronic exchange of documents between different local offices of one administration in government sector such as a municipality and the way it is useful for implementing complex administrative services.

  17. Application of models for exchange of electronic documents in complex administrative services

    SciTech Connect

    Glavev, Victor

    2015-11-30

    The report presents application of models for exchange of electronic documents between different administrations in government and business sectors. It shows the benefits of implementing electronic exchange of documents between different local offices of one administration in government sector such as a municipality and the way it is useful for implementing complex administrative services.

  18. Technical documentation of HGSYSTEM/UF{sub 6} model

    SciTech Connect

    Hanna, S.R.; Chang, J.C.; Zhang, J.X.

    1996-01-01

    MMES has been directed to upgrade the safety analyses for the gaseous diffusion plants at Paducah KY and Piketon OH. These will require assessment of consequences of accidental releases of UF{sub 6} to the atmosphere at these plants. The HGSYSTEM model has been chosen as the basis for evaluating UF{sub 6} releases; it includes dispersion algorithms for dense gases and treats the chemistry and thermodynamics of HF, a major product of the reaction of UF{sub 6} with water vapor in air. Objective of this project was to incorporate additional capability into HGSYSTEM: UF{sub 6} chemistry and thermodynamics, plume lift-off algorithms, and wet and dry deposition. The HGSYSTEM modules are discussed. The hybrid HGSYSTEM/UF{sub 6} model has been evaluated in three ways.

  19. The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-03-01

    on the particulars of those individual sectors with the model handling the eval- uation of Interaction and full-system effects . Not only does the...arises from the current harvest. The current harvest has a direct effect on agricultural investment and an indirect impact upon current industrial...the often- discussed Impact of savings account accumulation upon purchases of duracle goods; his effect may still be valid at the micro level for

  20. A two-stage optimization model for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty in response to environmental accidents.

    PubMed

    Liu, Jie; Guo, Liang; Jiang, Jiping; Jiang, Dexun; Liu, Rentao; Wang, Peng

    2016-06-05

    In the emergency management relevant to pollution accidents, efficiency emergency rescues can be deeply influenced by a reasonable assignment of the available emergency materials to the related risk sources. In this study, a two-stage optimization framework is developed for emergency material reserve layout planning under uncertainty to identify material warehouse locations and emergency material reserve schemes in pre-accident phase coping with potential environmental accidents. This framework is based on an integration of Hierarchical clustering analysis - improved center of gravity (HCA-ICG) model and material warehouse location - emergency material allocation (MWL-EMA) model. First, decision alternatives are generated using HCA-ICG to identify newly-built emergency material warehouses for risk sources which cannot be satisfied by existing ones with a time-effective manner. Second, emergency material reserve planning is obtained using MWL-EMA to make emergency materials be prepared in advance with a cost-effective manner. The optimization framework is then applied to emergency management system planning in Jiangsu province, China. The results demonstrate that the developed framework not only could facilitate material warehouse selection but also effectively provide emergency material for emergency operations in a quick response.

  1. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Electricity Capacity Planning submodule

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    The National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is a computer modeling system developed by the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The NEMS produces integrated forecasts for energy markets in the United States by achieving a general equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand. Currently, for each year during the period from 1990 through 2010, the NEMS describes energy supply, conversion, consumption, and pricing. The Electricity Market Module (EMM) is the electricity supply component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS). The supply of electricity is a conversion activity since electricity is produced from other energy sources (e.g., fossil, nuclear, and renewable). The EMM represents the generation, transmission, and pricing of electricity. The EMM consists of four main submodules: Electricity Capacity Planning (ECP), Electricity Fuel Dispatching (EFD), Electricity Finance and Pricing (EFP), and Load and Demand-Side Management (LDSM). The ECP evaluates changes in the mix of generating capacity that are necessary to meet future demands for electricity and comply with environmental regulations. The EFD represents dispatching (i.e., operating) decisions and determines how to allocate available capacity to meet the current demand for electricity. Using investment expenditures from the ECP and operating costs from the EFD, the EFP calculates the price of electricity, accounting for state-level regulations involving the allocation of costs. The LDSM translates annual demands for electricity into distributions that describe hourly, seasonal, and time-of-day variations. These distributions are used by the EFD and the ECP to determine the quantity and types of generating capacity that are required to insure reliable and economical supplies of electricity. The EMM also represents nonutility suppliers and interregional and international transmission and trade. These activities are included in the EFD and the ECP.

  2. Performance documentation of the engineering model 30-cm diameter thruster

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bechtel, R. T.; Rawlin, V. K.

    1976-01-01

    The results of extensive testing of two 30-cm ion thrusters which are virtually identical to the 900 series Engineering Model Thruster in an ongoing 15,000-hour life test are presented. Performance data for the nominal fullpower (2650 W) operating point; performance sensitivities to discharge voltage, discharge losses, accelerator voltage, and magnetic baffle current; and several power throttling techniques (maximum Isp, maximum thrust/power ratio, and two cases in between are included). Criteria for throttling are specified in terms of the screen power supply envelope, thruster operating limits, and control stability. In addition, reduced requirements for successful high voltage recycles are presented.

  3. Model documentation report: Commercial Sector Demand Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Commercial Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, model source code, and forecast results generated through the synthesis and scenario development based on these components. The NEMS Commercial Sector Demand Module is a simulation tool based upon economic and engineering relationships that models commercial sector energy demands at the nine Census Division level of detail for eleven distinct categories of commercial buildings. Commercial equipment selections are performed for the major fuels of electricity, natural gas, and distillate fuel, for the major services of space heating, space cooling, water heating, ventilation, cooking, refrigeration, and lighting. The algorithm also models demand for the minor fuels of residual oil, liquefied petroleum gas, steam coal, motor gasoline, and kerosene, the renewable fuel sources of wood and municipal solid waste, and the minor services of office equipment. Section 2 of this report discusses the purpose of the model, detailing its objectives, primary input and output quantities, and the relationship of the Commercial Module to the other modules of the NEMS system. Section 3 of the report describes the rationale behind the model design, providing insights into further assumptions utilized in the model development process to this point. Section 3 also reviews alternative commercial sector modeling methodologies drawn from existing literature, providing a comparison to the chosen approach. Section 4 details the model structure, using graphics and text to illustrate model flows and key computations.

  4. Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document for the 2015 Ozone NAAQS Preliminary Interstate Transport Assessment

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In this technical support document (TSD) EPA describes the air quality modeling performed to support the 2015 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) preliminary interstate transport assessment Notice of Data Availability (NODA).

  5. PNNL Results from 2009 Silene Criticality Accident Dosimeter Intercomparison Exercise

    SciTech Connect

    Hill, Robin L.; Conrady, Matthew M.

    2010-06-30

    This document reports the results of testing of the Hanford Personnel Nuclear Accident Dosimeter (PNAD) during a criticality accident dosimeter intercomparison exercise at the CEA Valduc Center on October 13, 14, and 15, 2009.

  6. Underground Test Area Subproject Phase I Data Analysis Task. Volume VI - Groundwater Flow Model Documentation Package

    SciTech Connect

    1996-11-01

    Volume VI of the documentation for the Phase I Data Analysis Task performed in support of the current Regional Flow Model, Transport Model, and Risk Assessment for the Nevada Test Site Underground Test Area Subproject contains the groundwater flow model data. Because of the size and complexity of the model area, a considerable quantity of data was collected and analyzed in support of the modeling efforts. The data analysis task was consequently broken into eight subtasks, and descriptions of each subtask's activities are contained in one of the eight volumes that comprise the Phase I Data Analysis Documentation.

  7. Shipping container response to severe highway and railway accident conditions: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Fischer, L.E.; Chou, C.K.; Gerhard, M.A.; Kimura, C.Y.; Martin, R.W.; Mensing, R.W.; Mount, M.E.; Witte, M.C.

    1987-02-01

    This report describes a study performed by the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory to evaluate the level of safety provided under severe accident conditions during the shipment of spent fuel from nuclear power reactors. The evaluation is performed using data from real accident histories and using representative truck and rail cask models that likely meet 10 CFR 71 regulations. The responses of the representative casks are calculated for structural and thermal loads generated by severe highway and railway accident conditions. The cask responses are compared with those responses calculated for the 10 CFR 71 hypothetical accident conditions. By comparing the responses it is determined that most highway and railway accident conditions fall within the 10 CFR 71 hypothetical accident conditions. For those accidents that have higher responses, the probabilities anf potential radiation exposures of the accidents are compared with those identified by the assessments made in the ''Final Environmental Statement on the Transportation of Radioactive Material by Air and other Modes,'' NUREG-0170. Based on this comparison, it is concluded that the radiological risks from spent fuel under severe highway and railway accident conditions as derived in this study are less than risks previously estimated in the NUREG-0170 document.

  8. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  9. Development, documentation and correlation of a NASTRAN vibration model of the AH-1G helicopter airframe

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cronkhite, J. D.

    1976-01-01

    NASTRAN was evaluated for vibration analysis of the helicopter airframe. The first effort involved development of a NASTRAN model of the AH-1G helicopter airframe and comprehensive documentation of the model. The next effort was to assess the validity of the NASTRAN model by comparisons with static and vibration tests.

  10. Accident Sequence Evaluation Program: Human reliability analysis procedure

    SciTech Connect

    Swain, A.D.

    1987-02-01

    This document presents a shortened version of the procedure, models, and data for human reliability analysis (HRA) which are presented in the Handbook of Human Reliability Analysis With emphasis on Nuclear Power Plant Applications (NUREG/CR-1278, August 1983). This shortened version was prepared and tried out as part of the Accident Sequence Evaluation Program (ASEP) funded by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and managed by Sandia National Laboratories. The intent of this new HRA procedure, called the ''ASEP HRA Procedure,'' is to enable systems analysts, with minimal support from experts in human reliability analysis, to make estimates of human error probabilities and other human performance characteristics which are sufficiently accurate for many probabilistic risk assessments. The ASEP HRA Procedure consists of a Pre-Accident Screening HRA, a Pre-Accident Nominal HRA, a Post-Accident Screening HRA, and a Post-Accident Nominal HRA. The procedure in this document includes changes made after tryout and evaluation of the procedure in four nuclear power plants by four different systems analysts and related personnel, including human reliability specialists. The changes consist of some additional explanatory material (including examples), and more detailed definitions of some of the terms. 42 refs.

  11. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Part 1, Introduction, integration, and summary: Revision 2

    SciTech Connect

    Evans, J.S.; Abrahmson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-10-01

    This report is a revision of NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 1 (1990), Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis. This revision has been made to incorporate changes to the Health Effects Models recommended in two addenda to the NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 11, 1989 report. The first of these addenda provided recommended changes to the health effects models for low-LET radiations based on recent reports from UNSCEAR, ICRP and NAS/NRC (BEIR V). The second addendum presented changes needed to incorporate alpha-emitting radionuclides into the accident exposure source term. As in the earlier version of this report, models are provided for early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects. Weibull dose-response functions are recommended for evaluating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary, and gastrointestinal syndromes are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating the risks of seven types of cancer in adults - leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid, and ``other``. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Five classes of genetic diseases -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocations, and multifactorial diseases are also considered. Data are provided that should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk.

  12. Section 3. The SPARROW Surface Water-Quality Model: Theory, Application and User Documentation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, G.E.; Hoos, A.B.; Alexander, R.B.; Smith, R.A.

    2006-01-01

    SPARROW (SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes) is a watershed modeling technique for relating water-quality measurements made at a network of monitoring stations to attributes of the watersheds containing the stations. The core of the model consists of a nonlinear regression equation describing the non-conservative transport of contaminants from point and diffuse sources on land to rivers and through the stream and river network. The model predicts contaminant flux, concentration, and yield in streams and has been used to evaluate alternative hypotheses about the important contaminant sources and watershed properties that control transport over large spatial scales. This report provides documentation for the SPARROW modeling technique and computer software to guide users in constructing and applying basic SPARROW models. The documentation gives details of the SPARROW software, including the input data and installation requirements, and guidance in the specification, calibration, and application of basic SPARROW models, as well as descriptions of the model output and its interpretation. The documentation is intended for both researchers and water-resource managers with interest in using the results of existing models and developing and applying new SPARROW models. The documentation of the model is presented in two parts. Part 1 provides a theoretical and practical introduction to SPARROW modeling techniques, which includes a discussion of the objectives, conceptual attributes, and model infrastructure of SPARROW. Part 1 also includes background on the commonly used model specifications and the methods for estimating and evaluating parameters, evaluating model fit, and generating water-quality predictions and measures of uncertainty. Part 2 provides a user's guide to SPARROW, which includes a discussion of the software architecture and details of the model input requirements and output files, graphs, and maps. The text documentation and computer

  13. Status report of advanced cladding modeling work to assess cladding performance under accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    B.J. Merrill; Shannon M. Bragg-Sitton

    2013-09-01

    Scoping simulations performed using a severe accident code can be applied to investigate the influence of advanced materials on beyond design basis accident progression and to identify any existing code limitations. In 2012 an effort was initiated to develop a numerical capability for understanding the potential safety advantages that might be realized during severe accident conditions by replacing Zircaloy components in light water reactors (LWRs) with silicon carbide (SiC) components. To this end, a version of the MELCOR code, under development at the Sandia National Laboratories in New Mexico (SNL/NM), was modified by replacing Zircaloy for SiC in the MELCOR reactor core oxidation and material properties routines. The modified version of MELCOR was benchmarked against available experimental data to ensure that present SiC oxidation theory in air and steam were correctly implemented in the code. Additional modifications have been implemented in the code in 2013 to improve the specificity in defining components fabricated from non-standard materials. An overview of these modifications and the status of their implementation are summarized below.

  14. Forecast of long term coal supply and mining conditions: Model documentation and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    A coal industry model was developed to support the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in its investigation of advanced underground coal extraction systems. The model documentation includes the programming for the coal mining cost models and an accompanying users' manual, and a guide to reading model output. The methodology used in assembling the transportation, demand, and coal reserve components of the model are also described. Results presented for 1986 and 2000, include projections of coal production patterns and marginal prices, differentiated by coal sulfur content.

  15. NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patlach, Robert

    2010-01-01

    Manned space flight is risky business. Accidents have occurred and may occur in the future. NASA's manned space flight programs, with all their successes, have had three fatal accidents, one at the launch pad and two in flight. The Apollo fire and the Challenger and Columbia accidents resulted in a loss of seventeen crewmembers. Russia's manned space flight programs have had three fatal accidents, one ground-based and two in flight. These accidents resulted in the loss of five crewmembers. Additionally, manned spacecraft have encountered numerous close calls with potential for disaster. The NASA Johnson Space Center Flight Safety Office has documented more than 70 spacecraft incidents, many of which could have become serious accidents. At the Johnson Space Center (JSC), medical contingency personnel are assigned to a Mishap Investigation Team. The team deploys to the accident site to gather and preserve evidence for the Accident Investigation Board. The JSC Medical Operations Branch has developed a flight surgeon accident response training class to capture the lessons learned from the Columbia accident. This presentation will address the NASA Mishap Investigation Team's medical objectives, planned response, and potential issues that could arise subsequent to a manned spacecraft accident. Educational Objectives are to understand the medical objectives and issues confronting the Mishap Investigation Team medical personnel subsequent to a human space flight accident.

  16. Towards a summary documentation of the AMIP models for the World-Wide Web

    SciTech Connect

    Phillips, T.J.

    1994-11-01

    The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AIMP) is an international effort to simulate the global climate of the period 1979--1988 by specifying certain common boundary conditions and radiative forcings. Work is in progress to translate the AIMP summary documentation into Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) for use with the public-domain Mosaic software. We are exploiting the hypertext attributes of this software to permit rapid access to those facets of the AIMP documentation that are of most interest to the individual scientist.

  17. Radiological assessment by compartment model POSEIDON-R of radioactivity released in the ocean following Fukushima Daiichi accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bezhenar, Roman; Maderich, Vladimir; Heling, Rudie; Jung, Kyung Tae; Myoung, Jung-Goo

    2013-04-01

    The modified compartment model POSEIDON-R (Lepicard et al, 2004), was applied to the North-Western Pacific and adjacent seas. It is for the first time, that a compartment model was used in this region, where 25 Nuclear Power Plants (NPP) are operated. The aim of this study is to perform a radiological assessment of the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Daiichi accident. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in water column and in the sediments, and the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and the subsequent doses to the population due to the consumption of fishery products. A generic predictive dynamical food-chain model is used instead of concentration factor (CF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. Three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe deep-water transport adequately. In total 175 boxes cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea and East/Japan Sea. Water fluxes between boxes were calculated by averaging three-dimensional currents obtained by hydrodynamic model ROMS over a 10-years period. Tidal mixing between boxes was parameterized. The model was validated on observation data on the Cs-137 in water for the period 1945-2004. The source terms from nuclear weapon tests are regional source term from the bomb tests on Atoll Enewetak and Atoll Bikini and global deposition from weapons tests. The correlation coefficient between predicted and observed concentrations of Cs-137 in the surface water is 0.925 and RMSE=1.43 Bq/m3. A local-scale coastal box was used according POSEIDON's methodology to describe local processes of activity transport, deposition and food web around the Fukushima Daiichi NPP. The source term to the ocean from the Fukushima accident includes a 10-days release of Cs-134 (5 PBq) and Cs-137 (4 PBq) directly into the ocean and 6 and 5 PBq of Cs-134 and

  18. Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2: Scalar code

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, D.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

    1983-01-01

    Volume 2, of a 3 volume technical memoranda contains a detailed documentation of the GLAS fourth order general circulation model. Volume 2 contains the CYBER 205 scalar and vector codes of the model, list of variables, and cross references. A variable name dictionary for the scalar code, and code listings are outlined.

  19. Using a Simple Economic Impact Model To Document Value to Policy Makers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lillibridge, Fred

    At the request of state legislature, the two-year branch campus of New Mexico State University at Alamogordo (NMSU-A) began using an economic impact model developed by the Eastern Association of College and University Business Officers (EACUBO) to document accountability. The EACUBO Model uses information about the institution and economic data…

  20. Farm-Level Effects of Soil Conservation and Commodity Policy Alternatives: Model and Data Documentation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sutton, John D.

    This report documents a profit-maximizing linear programming (LP) model of a farm typical of a major corn-soybean producing area in the Southern Michigan-Northern Indiana Drift Plain. Following an introduction, a complete description of the farm is provided. The next section presents the LP model, which is structured to help analyze after-tax…

  1. TRENDS (Transport and Retention of Nuclides in Dominant Sequences): A code for modeling iodine behavior in containment during severe accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Weber, C.F.; Beahm, E.C.; Kress, T.S.; Daish, S.R.; Shockley, W.E.

    1989-01-01

    The ultimate aim of a description of iodine behavior in severe LWR accidents is a time-dependent accounting of iodine species released into containment and to the environment. Factors involved in the behavior of iodine can be conveniently divided into four general categories: (1) initial release into containment, (2) interaction of iodine species in containment not directly involving water pools, (3) interaction of iodine species in, or with, water pools, and (4) interaction with special systems such as ice condensers or gas treatment systems. To fill the large gaps in knowledge and to provide a means for assaying the iodine source term, this program has proceeded along two paths: (1) Experimental studies of the chemical behavior of iodine under containment conditions. (2) Development of TRENDS (Transport and Retention of Nuclides in Dominant Sequences), a computer code for modeling the behavior of iodine in containment and its release from containment. The main body of this report consists of a description of TRENDS. These two parts to the program are complementary in that models within TRENDS use data that were produced in the experimental program; therefore, these models are supported by experimental evidence that was obtained under conditions expected in severe accidents. 7 refs., 1 fig., 2 tabs.

  2. Model documentation renewable fuels module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1995-06-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the 1995 Annual Energy Outlook (AEO95) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. The RFM consists of six analytical submodules that represent each of the major renewable energy resources--wood, municipal solid waste (MSW), solar energy, wind energy, geothermal energy, and alcohol fuels. The RFM also reads in hydroelectric facility capacities and capacity factors from a data file for use by the NEMS Electricity Market Module (EMM). The purpose of the RFM is to define the technological, cost and resource size characteristics of renewable energy technologies. These characteristics are used to compute a levelized cost to be competed against other similarly derived costs from other energy sources and technologies. The competition of these energy sources over the NEMS time horizon determines the market penetration of these renewable energy technologies. The characteristics include available energy capacity, capital costs, fixed operating costs, variable operating costs, capacity factor, heat rate, construction lead time, and fuel product price.

  3. Model documentation, Renewable Fuels Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives, analytical approach, and design of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Renewable Fuels Module (RFM) as it relates to the production of the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98) forecasts. The report catalogues and describes modeling assumptions, computational methodologies, data inputs, and parameter estimation techniques. A number of offline analyses used in lieu of RFM modeling components are also described. For AEO98, the RFM was modified in three principal ways, introducing capital cost elasticities of supply for new renewable energy technologies, modifying biomass supply curves, and revising assumptions for use of landfill gas from municipal solid waste (MSW). In addition, the RFM was modified in general to accommodate projections beyond 2015 through 2020. Two supply elasticities were introduced, the first reflecting short-term (annual) cost increases from manufacturing, siting, and installation bottlenecks incurred under conditions of rapid growth, and the second reflecting longer term natural resource, transmission and distribution upgrade, and market limitations increasing costs as more and more of the overall resource is used. Biomass supply curves were also modified, basing forest products supplies on production rather than on inventory, and expanding energy crop estimates to include states west of the Mississippi River using information developed by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Finally, for MSW, several assumptions for the use of landfill gas were revised and extended.

  4. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  5. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    SciTech Connect

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  6. Modelling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christoudias, Theodoros; Lelieveld, Jos

    2013-04-01

    We modeled the global atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. The EMAC atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model was used, with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We applied a resolution of approximately 0.5 degrees in latitude and longitude (T255). The model accounts for emissions and transport of the radioactive isotopes 131I and 137Cs, and removal processes through precipitation, particle sedimentation and dry deposition. In addition, we simulated the release of 133Xe, a noble gas that can be regarded as a passive transport tracer of contaminated air. The source terms are based on Chino et al. (2011) and Stohl et al. (2012); especially the emission estimates of 131I are associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The calculated concentrations have been compared to station observations by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO).

  7. Use of Image Based Modelling for Documentation of Intricately Shaped Objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marčiš, M.; Barták, P.; Valaška, D.; Fraštia, M.; Trhan, O.

    2016-06-01

    In the documentation of cultural heritage, we can encounter three dimensional shapes and structures which are complicated to measure. Such objects are for example spiral staircases, timber roof trusses, historical furniture or folk costume where it is nearly impossible to effectively use the traditional surveying or the terrestrial laser scanning due to the shape of the object, its dimensions and the crowded environment. The actual methods of digital photogrammetry can be very helpful in such cases with the emphasis on the automated processing of the extensive image data. The created high resolution 3D models and 2D orthophotos are very important for the documentation of architectural elements and they can serve as an ideal base for the vectorization and 2D drawing documentation. This contribution wants to describe the various usage of image based modelling in specific interior spaces and specific objects. The advantages and disadvantages of the photogrammetric measurement of such objects in comparison to other surveying methods are reviewed.

  8. Model documentation, Coal Market Module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1998-01-01

    This report documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of the National Energy Modeling System`s (NEMS) Coal Market Module (CMM) used to develop the Annual Energy Outlook 1998 (AEO98). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of CMM`s two submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS) and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS). CMM provides annual forecasts of prices, production, and consumption of coal for NEMS. In general, the CDS integrates the supply inputs from the CPS to satisfy demands for coal from exogenous demand models. The international area of the CDS forecasts annual world coal trade flows from major supply to major demand regions and provides annual forecasts of US coal exports for input to NEMS. Specifically, the CDS receives minemouth prices produced by the CPS, demand and other exogenous inputs from other NEMS components, and provides delivered coal prices and quantities to the NEMS economic sectors and regions.

  9. Documentation of the DRI Model of the US economy, December 1993

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-02-28

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) uses models of the US economy developed by Data Resources, Inc. (DRI) for conducting policy analyses, preparing forecasts for the Annual Energy Outlook, the Short-Term Energy Outlook, and related analyses in conjunction with EIA`s National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) and its other energy market models. Both the DRI Model of the US Economy and the DRI Personal Computer Input-Output Model (PC-IO){sup 2} were developed and are maintained by DRI as proprietary models. This report provides documentation, as required by EIA standards for the use of proprietary models; describes the theoretical basis, structure and functions of both DRI models; and contains brief descriptions of the models and their equations. Appendix A describes how the two large-scale models documented here are used to support the macroeconomic and interindustry modeling associated with the National Energy Modeling System. Appendix B is an article by Stephen McNees of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston on ``How Large are Economic Forecast Errors.`` This article assesses the forecast accuracy of a number of economic forecasting models (groups) and is attached as an independent assessment of the forecast accuracy of the DRI Model of the US Economy.

  10. Estimation of the duration after methamphetamine injection using a pharmacokinetic model in suspects who caused fatal traffic accidents.

    PubMed

    Matsubara, Kazuo; Asari, Masaru; Suno, Manabu; Awaya, Toshio; Sugawara, Mitsuru; Omura, Tomohiro; Yamamoto, Joe; Maseda, Chikatoshi; Tasaki, Yoshikazu; Shiono, Hiroshi; Shimizu, Keiko

    2012-07-01

    When the population parameters of drug pharmacokinetics in the human body system are known, the time-course of a certain drug in an individual can generally be estimated by pharmacokinetics. In the present two cases where methamphetamine abusers were suspected to have inflicted mortalities in traffic accidents, the time-elapse or duration immediately after methamphetamine injection to the time when the accidents occurred became points of contention. In each case, we estimated the time-course of blood methamphetamine after the self-administration in the suspects using a 2-compartment pharmacokinetic model with known pharmacokinetic parameters from the literatures. If the injected amount can be determined to a certain extent, it is easy to calculate the average time-elapse after injection by referring to reference values. However, there is considerable individual variability in the elimination rate based on genetic polymorphism and a considerably large error range in the estimated time-elapse results. To minimize estimation errors in such cases, we also analyzed genotype of CYP2D6, which influenced methamphetamine metabolism. Estimation based on two time-point blood samples would usefully benefit legal authorities in passing ruling sentences in cases involving similar personalities and circumstances as those involved in the present study.

  11. Atmospheric dispersion modeling for the worst-case detonation accident at the proposed Advanced Hydrotest Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Bowen, B.M., LLNL

    1996-10-01

    The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) was requested to estimate credible worst-case dose, air concentration, and deposition of airborne hazardous materials that would result from a worst-case detonation accident at the proposed Advanced Hydrotest Facility (AHT) at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Consequences were estimated at the closest onsite facility, the Device Assembly Facility (DOFF), and offsite location (intersection of Highway and U.S. 95). The materials considered in this analysis were weapon-grade plutonium, beryllium, and hydrogen fluoride which is a combustion product whose concentration is dependent upon the quantity of high explosives. The analysis compares the calculated results with action guidelines published by the Department of Defense in DoD 5100.52-M (Nuclear Weapon Accident Response Procedures). Results indicate that based on a one kg release of plutonium the whole body radiation dose could be as high as 3 Rem at the DOFF. This level approaches the 5 Rem level for which the Department of Defense requires respiratory protection, recommends sheltering and the consideration of evacuation. Deposition levels at the DOFF could approach 6 uCi/m{sup 2} for which the Department of Defense recommends access on a need-only basis and suggests that a possible controlled evacuation might be required. For a one kg release of plutonium, the dose at the nearest off-site location could reach 0.5. At this level, the Department of Defense suggests that sheltering be considered. For a one kg release of beryllium, the peak 5-minute concentration at the DOFF could be as as 20% of 6xlO{sup -3} mg/m{sup 2} which is the applicable by Response Planning Guideline (ERPG-1). At the nearest offsite location, the beryllium concentrations from a one kg release would be two orders of magnitude less than the same guideline. For the detonation of 100 kg of the explosive LX-17, the concentration of hydrogen fluoride at both the DOFF and the nearest offsite location

  12. Underreporting of maritime accidents to vessel accident databases.

    PubMed

    Hassel, Martin; Asbjørnslett, Bjørn Egil; Hole, Lars Petter

    2011-11-01

    Underreporting of maritime accidents is a problem not only for authorities trying to improve maritime safety through legislation, but also to risk management companies and other entities using maritime casualty statistics in risk and accident analysis. This study collected and compared casualty data from 01.01.2005 to 31.12.2009, from IHS Fairplay and the maritime authorities from a set of nations. The data was compared to find common records, and estimation of the true number of occurred accidents was performed using conditional probability given positive dependency between data sources, several variations of the capture-recapture method, calculation of best case scenario assuming perfect reporting, and scaling up a subset of casualty information from a marine insurance statistics database. The estimated upper limit reporting performance for the selected flag states ranged from 14% to 74%, while the corresponding estimated coverage of IHS Fairplay ranges from 4% to 62%. On average the study results document that the number of unreported accidents makes up roughly 50% of all occurred accidents. Even in a best case scenario, only a few flag states come close to perfect reporting (94%). The considerable scope of underreporting uncovered in the study, indicates that users of statistical vessel accident data should assume a certain degree of underreporting, and adjust their analyses accordingly. Whether to use correction factors, a safety margin, or rely on expert judgment, should be decided on a case by case basis.

  13. Student Flow Model SFM-IA: System Documentation. Technical Report 41B. Preliminary Edition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Busby, John C.; Johnson, Richard S.

    Technical specifications, operating procedures, and reference information for the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems' (NCHEMS) Student Flow Model (SFM) computer programs are presented. Included are narrative descriptions of the system and its modules, specific program documentation for each of the modules, system flowcharts,…

  14. ICMI Study 14: Applications and Modelling in Mathematics Education--Discussion Document

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blum, Werner

    2002-01-01

    This paper is the "Discussion Document" for a forthcoming ICMI Study on "Applications and Modelling in Mathematics Education." As will be well-known, from time to time ICMI (the International Commission on Mathematical Instruction) mounts specific studies in order to investigate, both in depth and in detail, particular fields of interest in…

  15. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. I, Model Documentation

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    Documents the objectives and the conceptual and methodological approach used in the development of projections for the International Energy Outlook. The first volume of this report describes the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) methodology and provides an in-depth explanation of the equations of the model.

  16. FASTGRASS: A mechanistic model for the prediction of Xe, I, Cs, Te, Ba, and Sr release from nuclear fuel under normal and severe-accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Rest, J.; Zawadzki, S.A. )

    1992-09-01

    The primary physical/chemical models that form the basis of the FASTGRASS mechanistic computer model for calculating fission-product release from nuclear fuel are described. Calculated results are compared with test data and the major mechanisms affecting the transport of fission products during steady-state and accident conditions are identified.

  17. Analysis and implementation of document flow model based on Petri and JBPM

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Hui; Liu, Jinhua

    2013-03-01

    Workflow management system JBPM which is open-source and based on J2EE architecture and its workflow model is introduced by combining practical experience in workflow and J2EE. An efficient, rapid and stable model of document flow system is designed with process design tools JPDL, and on the basis of this model definition and in the premise of operating structure equivalent, conversion rules are raised to convert JBPM model to WF_logic. And then smooth of the WF_logic is validated by reduction rules of Petri net. Finally, the model is achieved successfully.

  18. Model documentation: Natural gas transmission and distribution model of the National Energy Modeling System. Volume 1

    SciTech Connect

    1995-02-17

    The Natural Gas Transmission and Distribution Model (NGTDM) is the component of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) that is used to represent the domestic natural gas transmission and distribution system. NEMS was developed in the Office of integrated Analysis and Forecasting of the Energy information Administration (EIA). NEMS is the third in a series of computer-based, midterm energy modeling systems used since 1974 by the EIA and its predecessor, the Federal Energy Administration, to analyze domestic energy-economy markets and develop projections. The NGTDM is the model within the NEMS that represents the transmission, distribution, and pricing of natural gas. The model also includes representations of the end-use demand for natural gas, the production of domestic natural gas, and the availability of natural gas traded on the international market based on information received from other NEMS models. The NGTDM determines the flow of natural gas in an aggregate, domestic pipeline network, connecting domestic and foreign supply regions with 12 demand regions. The methodology employed allows the analysis of impacts of regional capacity constraints in the interstate natural gas pipeline network and the identification of pipeline capacity expansion requirements. There is an explicit representation of core and noncore markets for natural gas transmission and distribution services, and the key components of pipeline tariffs are represented in a pricing algorithm. Natural gas pricing and flow patterns are derived by obtaining a market equilibrium across the three main elements of the natural gas market: the supply element, the demand element, and the transmission and distribution network that links them. The NGTDM consists of four modules: the Annual Flow Module, the Capacity F-expansion Module, the Pipeline Tariff Module, and the Distributor Tariff Module. A model abstract is provided in Appendix A.

  19. Modeling of the TMI-2 (Three Mile Island Unit-2) accident with MELPROG/TRAC and calculation results for Phases 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect

    Motley, F.E.; Jenks, R.P.

    1988-01-01

    Work has been performed to develop a Three Mile Island Unit-2 (TMI-2) simulation model for MELPROG/TRAC capable of predicting the observed plant behavior that took place during the accident of March 1979. A description of the TMI-2 plant model is presented and calculation results through 174 min of the accident are discussed. Using the ICBC boundary conditions, the calculation predicts pressurizer draining and core recovering prior to fuel-rod damage. A parametric calculation (reduced makeup flow) is currently underway and is in better agreement with the observed plant behavior. Efforts are underway to resolve current discrepancies and proceed with an accurate simulation through Phases 3 and 4 of the accident (174-227 min and 227-300 min, respectively). 13 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs.

  20. Documentation of finite-difference model for simulation of three-dimensional ground-water flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Trescott, Peter C.; Larson, S.P.

    1976-01-01

    User experience has indicated that the documentation of the model of three-dimensional ground-water flow (Trescott and Larson, 1975) should be expanded. This supplement is intended to fulfill that need. The original report emphasized the theory of the strongly implicit procedure, instructions for using the groundwater-flow model, and practical considerations for application. (See also W76-02962 and W76-13085) (Woodard-USGS)

  1. Econ's optimal decision model of wheat production and distribution-documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1977-01-01

    The report documents the computer programs written to implement the ECON optical decision model. The programs were written in APL, an extremely compact and powerful language particularly well suited to this model, which makes extensive use of matrix manipulations. The algorithms used are presented and listings of and descriptive information on the APL programs used are given. Possible changes in input data are also given.

  2. Documentation of the Tonge-Ramesh Material Model for Release 2015-06-05-152756

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-10-01

    damage). The hardening modulus may be either positive or negative (softening). When the material softens to zero strength , the localized flag is set to 4...This model includes the option to specify Lode angle dependence, which reduces the strength of the material as the loading conditions deviate from...US Army Research Laboratory Documentation of the Tonge–Ramesh MaterialModel for Release 2015-06-05-152756 by Andrew L Tonge Weapons and Materials

  3. Context modeling for text/non-text separation in free-form online handwritten documents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delaye, Adrien; Liu, Cheng-Lin

    2013-01-01

    Free-form online handwritten documents contain a high diversity of content, organized without constraints imposed to the user. The lack of prior knowledge about content and layout makes the modeling of contextual information of crucial importance for interpretation of such documents. In this work, we present a comprehensive investigation of the sources of contextual information that can benefit the task of discerning textual from non-textual strokes in handwritten online documents. An in-depth analysis of interactions between strokes is conducted through the design of various pairwise clique systems that are combined within a Conditional Random Field formulation of the stroke labeling problem. Our results demonstrate the benefits of combining complementary sources of context for improving the text/non-text recognition performance.

  4. Offshore Wind Guidance Document: Oceanography and Sediment Stability (Version 1) Development of a Conceptual Site Model.

    SciTech Connect

    Roberts, Jesse D.; Jason Magalen; Craig Jones

    2014-06-01

    This guidance document provide s the reader with an overview of the key environmental considerations for a typical offshore wind coastal location and the tools to help guide the reader through a thoro ugh planning process. It will enable readers to identify the key coastal processes relevant to their offshore wind site and perform pertinent analysis to guide siting and layout design, with the goal of minimizing costs associated with planning, permitting , and long - ter m maintenance. The document highlight s site characterization and assessment techniques for evaluating spatial patterns of sediment dynamics in the vicinity of a wind farm under typical, extreme, and storm conditions. Finally, the document des cribe s the assimilation of all of this information into the conceptual site model (CSM) to aid the decision - making processes.

  5. MODELING OF 2LIBH4 PLUS MGH2 HYDROGEN STORAGE SYSTEM ACCIDENT SCENARIOS USING EMPIRICAL AND THEORETICAL THERMODYNAMICS

    SciTech Connect

    James, C; David Tamburello, D; Joshua Gray, J; Kyle Brinkman, K; Bruce Hardy, B; Donald Anton, D

    2009-04-01

    It is important to understand and quantify the potential risk resulting from accidental environmental exposure of condensed phase hydrogen storage materials under differing environmental exposure scenarios. This paper describes a modeling and experimental study with the aim of predicting consequences of the accidental release of 2LiBH{sub 4}+MgH{sub 2} from hydrogen storage systems. The methodology and results developed in this work are directly applicable to any solid hydride material and/or accident scenario using appropriate boundary conditions and empirical data. The ability to predict hydride behavior for hypothesized accident scenarios facilitates an assessment of the of risk associated with the utilization of a particular hydride. To this end, an idealized finite volume model was developed to represent the behavior of dispersed hydride from a breached system. Semiempirical thermodynamic calculations and substantiating calorimetric experiments were performed in order to quantify the energy released, energy release rates and to quantify the reaction products resulting from water and air exposure of a lithium borohydride and magnesium hydride combination. The hydrides, LiBH{sub 4} and MgH{sub 2}, were studied individually in the as-received form and in the 2:1 'destabilized' mixture. Liquid water hydrolysis reactions were performed in a Calvet calorimeter equipped with a mixing cell using neutral water. Water vapor and oxygen gas phase reactivity measurements were performed at varying relative humidities and temperatures by modifying the calorimeter and utilizing a gas circulating flow cell apparatus. The results of these calorimetric measurements were compared with standardized United Nations (UN) based test results for air and water reactivity and used to develop quantitative kinetic expressions for hydrolysis and air oxidation in these systems. Thermodynamic parameters obtained from these tests were then inputted into a computational fluid dynamics model to

  6. [Accidents in travellers - the hidden epidemic].

    PubMed

    Walz, Alexander; Hatz, Christoph

    2013-06-01

    The risk of malaria and other communicable diseases is well addressed in pre-travel advice. Accidents are usually less discussed. Thus, we aimed at assessing accident figures for the Swiss population, based on data of the register from 2004 to 2008 of the largest Swiss accident insurance organization (SUVA). More than 139'000 accidents over 5 years showed that 65 % of the accidents overseas are injuries, and 24 % are caused by poisoning or harm by cold, heat or air pressure. Most accidents happened during leisure activities or sports. More than one third of the non-lethal and more than 50 % of the fatal accidents happened in Asia. More than three-quarters of non-lethal accidents take place in people between 25 and 54 years. One out of 74 insured persons has an accident abroad per year. Despite of many analysis short-comings of the data set with regard to overseas travel, the figures document the underestimated burden of disease caused by accidents abroad and should affect the given pre-health advice.

  7. Radiation accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Saenger, E.L.

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity.

  8. Documentation, User Support, and Verification of Wind Turbine and Plant Models

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Zavadil; Vadim Zheglov; Yuriy Kazachkov; Bo Gong; Juan Sanchez; Jun Li

    2012-09-18

    As part of the Utility Wind Energy Integration Group (UWIG) and EnerNex's Wind Turbine Modeling Project, EnerNex has received ARRA (federal stimulus) funding through the Department of Energy (DOE) to further the progress of wind turbine and wind plant models. Despite the large existing and planned wind generation deployment, industry-standard models for wind generation have not been formally adopted. Models commonly provided for interconnection studies are not adequate for use in general transmission planning studies, where public, non-proprietary, documented and validated models are needed. NERC MOD (North American Electric Reliability Corporation) reliability standards require that power flow and dynamics models be provided, in accordance with regional requirements and procedures. The goal of this project is to accelerate the appropriate use of generic wind turbine models for transmission network analysis by: (1) Defining proposed enhancements to the generic wind turbine model structures that would allow representation of more advanced; (2) Comparative testing of the generic models against more detailed (and sometimes proprietary) versions developed by turbine vendors; (3) Developing recommended parameters for the generic models to best mimic the performance of specific commercial wind turbines; (4) Documenting results of the comparative simulations in an application guide for users; (5) Conducting technology transfer activities in regional workshops for dissemination of knowledge and information gained, and to engage electric power and wind industry personnel in the project while underway; (6) Designing of a "living" homepage to establish an online resource for transmission planners.

  9. Development of an in vitro porcine aorta model to study the stability of stent grafts in motor vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Darvish, Kurosh; Shafieian, Mehdi; Romanov, Vasily; Rotella, Vittorio; Salvatore, Michael D; Blebea, John

    2009-04-01

    Endovascular stent grafts for the treatment of thoracic aortic aneurysms have become increasingly utilized and yet their locational stability in moderate chest trauma is unknown. A high speed impact system was developed to study the stability of aortic endovascular stent grafts in vitro. A straight segment of porcine descending aorta with stent graft was constrained in a custom-made transparent urethane casing. The specimen was tested in a novel impact system at an anterior inclination of 45 deg and an average deceleration of 55 G, which represented a frontal automobile crash. Due to the shock of the impact, which was shown to be below the threshold of aortic injury, the stent graft moved 0.6 mm longitudinally. This result was repeatable. The presented experimental model may be helpful in developing future grafts to withstand moderate shocks experienced in motor vehicle accidents or other dynamic loadings of the chest.

  10. Verification and Validation of Neutronic/Thermalhydraulic 3D-Time Dependent Model for Treatment of Super-critical States of Light water Research Reactors Accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Khaled, S.M.

    2015-07-01

    This work presents the Verification and testing both the neutronic and thermal-hydraulics response of the positive reactivity-initiated power excursion accidents in small light water research reactors. Some research reactors have to build its own severe accidents code system. In this sense, a 3D space-time-dependent neutron diffusion models with thermal hydraulic feedback have been introduced, compared and tested both experimentally at criticality 14-cent and theoretically up to 1.5 $ with a number of similar codes. The results shows that no expected core failure or moderator boiling. (author)

  11. A dynamic model to estimate the activity concentration and whole body dose rate of marine biota as consequences of a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Keum, Dong-Kwon; Jun, In; Kim, Byeong-Ho; Lim, Kwang-Muk; Choi, Yong-Ho

    2015-02-01

    This paper describes a dynamic compartment model (K-BIOTA-DYN-M) to assess the activity concentration and whole body dose rate of marine biota as a result of a nuclear accident. The model considers the transport of radioactivity between the marine biota through the food chain, and applies the first order kinetic model for the sedimentation of radionuclides from seawater onto sediment. A set of ordinary differential equations representing the model are simultaneously solved to calculate the activity concentration of the biota and the sediment, and subsequently the dose rates, given the seawater activity concentration. The model was applied to investigate the long-term effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the marine biota using (131)I, (134)Cs, and, (137)Cs activity concentrations of seawater measured for up to about 2.5 years after the accident at two locations in the port of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (FDNPS) which was the most highly contaminated area. The predicted results showed that the accumulated dose for 3 months after the accident was about 4-4.5Gy, indicating the possibility of occurrence of an acute radiation effect in the early phase after the Fukushima accident; however, the total dose rate for most organisms studied was usually below the UNSCEAR (United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation)'s bench mark level for chronic exposure except for the initial phase of the accident, suggesting a very limited radiological effect on the marine biota at the population level. The predicted Cs sediment activity by the first-order kinetic model for the sedimentation was in a good agreement with the measured activity concentration. By varying the ecological parameter values, the present model was able to predict the very scattered (137)Cs activity concentrations of fishes measured in the port of FDNPS. Conclusively, the present dynamic model can be usefully applied to estimate the activity concentration and whole

  12. Centrality based Document Ranking

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-11-01

    approach. We model the documents to be ranked as nodes in a graph and place edges between documents based on their similarity. Given a query, we compute...similarity of the query with respect to every document in the graph . Based on these similarity values, documents are ranked for a given query...clinical documents using centrality based approach. We model the documents to be ranked as nodes in a graph and place edges between documents based on their

  13. Knowledge and Valorization of Historical Sites Through 3d Documentation and Modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farella, E.; Menna, F.; Nocerino, E.; Morabito, D.; Remondino, F.; Campi, M.

    2016-06-01

    The paper presents the first results of an interdisciplinary project related to the 3D documentation, dissemination, valorization and digital access of archeological sites. Beside the mere 3D documentation aim, the project has two goals: (i) to easily explore and share via web references and results of the interdisciplinary work, including the interpretative process and the final reconstruction of the remains; (ii) to promote and valorize archaeological areas using reality-based 3D data and Virtual Reality devices. This method has been verified on the ruins of the archeological site of Pausilypon, a maritime villa of Roman period (Naples, Italy). Using Unity3D, the virtual tour of the heritage site was integrated and enriched with the surveyed 3D data, text documents, CAAD reconstruction hypotheses, drawings, photos, etc. In this way, starting from the actual appearance of the ruins (panoramic images), passing through the 3D digital surveying models and several other historical information, the user is able to access virtual contents and reconstructed scenarios, all in a single virtual, interactive and immersive environment. These contents and scenarios allow to derive documentation and geometrical information, understand the site, perform analyses, see interpretative processes, communicate historical information and valorize the heritage location.

  14. Influence of the meteorological input on the atmospheric transport modelling with FLEXPART of radionuclides from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Arnold, D; Maurer, C; Wotawa, G; Draxler, R; Saito, K; Seibert, P

    2015-01-01

    In the present paper the role of precipitation as FLEXPART model input is investigated for one possible release scenario of the Fukushima Daiichi accident. Precipitation data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), the NOAA's National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) mesoscale analysis and a JMA radar-rain gauge precipitation analysis product were utilized. The accident of Fukushima in March 2011 and the following observations enable us to assess the impact of these precipitation products at least for this single case. As expected the differences in the statistical scores are visible but not large. Increasing the ECMWF resolution of all the fields from 0.5° to 0.2° rises the correlation from 0.71 to 0.80 and an overall rank from 3.38 to 3.44. Substituting ECMWF precipitation, while the rest of the variables remains unmodified, by the JMA mesoscale precipitation analysis and the JMA radar gauge precipitation data yield the best results on a regional scale, specially when a new and more robust wet deposition scheme is introduced. The best results are obtained with a combination of ECMWF 0.2° data with precipitation from JMA mesoscale analyses and the modified wet deposition with a correlation of 0.83 and an overall rank of 3.58. NCEP-based results with the same source term are generally poorer, giving correlations around 0.66, and comparatively large negative biases and an overall rank of 3.05 that worsens when regional precipitation data is introduced.

  15. a Historical Timber Frame Model for Diagnosis and Documentation Before Building Restoration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koehl, M.; Viale, A.; Reeb, S.

    2013-09-01

    The aim of the project that is described in this paper was to define a four-level timber frame survey mode of a historical building: the so-called "Andlau's Seigniory", Alsace, France. This historical building (domain) was built in the late XVIth century and is now in a stage of renovation in order to become a heritage interpretation centre. The used measurement methods combine Total Station measurements, Photogrammetry and 3D Terrestrial Laser scanner. Different modelling workflows were tested and compared according to the data acquisition method, but also according to the characteristics of the reconstructed model in terms of accuracy and level of detail. 3D geometric modelling of the entire structure was performed including modelling the degree of detail adapted to the needs. The described 3D timber framework exists now in different versions, from a theoretical and geometrical one up to a very detailed one, in which measurements and evaluation of deformation by time are potentially allowed. The virtually generated models involving archaeologists, architects, historians and specialists in historical crafts, are intended to be used during the four stages of the project: (i) knowledge of the current state of needs for diagnosis and understanding of former construction techniques; (ii) preparation and evaluation of restoration steps; (iii) knowledge and documentation concerning the archaeological object; (iv) transmission and dissemination of knowledge through the implementation of museum animations. Among the generated models we can also find a documentation of the site in the form of virtual tours created from panoramic photographs before and during the restoration works. Finally, the timber framework model was structured and integrated into a 3D GIS, where the association of descriptive and complementary digital documents was possible. Both offer tools leading to the diagnosis, the understanding of the structure, knowledge dissemination, documentation and the

  16. Model documentation coal market module of the National Energy Modeling System

    SciTech Connect

    1995-03-01

    This report documents the approaches used in developing the Annual Energy Outlook 1995 (AEO95). This report catalogues and describes the assumptions, methodology, estimation techniques, and source code of the coal market module`s three submodules. These are the Coal Production Submodule (CPS), the Coal Export Submodule (CES), the Coal Expert Submodule (CES), and the Coal Distribution Submodule (CDS).

  17. Documentation of a model action plan to deter illicit nuclear trafficking

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, D. K.; Kristo, M. J.; Niemeyer, S.; Dudder, Gordon B.

    2008-05-04

    Theft, illegal possession, smuggling, or attempted unathorized sale of nuclear and radiological materials remains a worldwide problem. The Nuclear Smuggling International Technical Working Group (ITWG) has adopted a model action plan to guide investigation of these cases through a systematic approach to nuclear forensics. The model action plan was recently documented and provides recommendations concerning incident response, collection of evidence in conformance with required legal standards, laboratory sampling and distribution of samples, radioactive materials analysis, including categorization and characterization of samples, forensics analysis of conventional evidence, and case development including interpretation of forensic signatures.

  18. Documentation of a Model Action Plan to Deter Illicit Nuclear Trafficking

    SciTech Connect

    Smith, D; Kristo, M; Niemeyer, S; Dudder, G

    2006-07-28

    Theft, illegal possession, smuggling, or attempted unauthorized sale of nuclear and radiological materials remains a worldwide problem. The Nuclear Smuggling International Technical Working Group (ITWG) has adopted a model action plan to guide investigation of these cases through a systematic approach to nuclear forensics. The model action plan was recently documented and provides recommendations concerning incident response, collection of evidence in conformance with required legal standards, laboratory sampling and distribution of samples, radioactive materials analysis, including categorization and characterization of samples, forensics analysis of conventional evidence, and case development including interpretation of forensic signatures.

  19. ALS and TLS data fusion in cultural heritage documentation and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fryskowska, A.; Walczykowski, P.; Delis, P.; Wojtkowska, M.

    2015-08-01

    One of the most important aspects of documenting cultural heritage sites is acquiring detailed and accurate data. A popular method of storing 3D information about historical structures is using 3D models. These models are built based on terrestrial or aerial laser scanning data. These methods are seldom used together. Historical buildings usually have a very complex design, therefore the input data, on the basis of which their 3D models are being built, must provide a high enough accuracy to model these complexities. The data processing methods used, as well as the modeling algorithms implemented, should be highly automated and universal. The main of the presented research was to analyze and compare various methods for extracting matching points. The article presents the results of combining data from ALS and TLS using reference points extracted both manually and automatically. Finally, the publication also includes an analysis of the accuracy of the data merging process.

  20. Modeling of leachable 137Cs in throughfall and stemflow for Japanese forest canopies after Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Loffredo, Nicolas; Onda, Yuichi; Kawamori, Ayumi; Kato, Hiroaki

    2014-09-15

    The Fukushima accident dispersed significant amounts of radioactive cesium (Cs) in the landscape. Our research investigated, from June 2011 to November 2013, the mobility of leachable Cs in forests canopies. In particular, (137)Cs and (134)Cs activity concentrations were measured in rainfall, throughfall, and stemflow in broad-leaf and cedar forests in an area located 40 km from the power plant. Leachable (137)Cs loss was modeled by a double exponential (DE) model. This model could not reproduce the variation in activity concentration observed. In order to refine the DE model, the main physical measurable parameters (rainfall intensity, wind velocity, and snowfall occurrence) were assessed, and rainfall was identified as the dominant factor controlling observed variation. A corrective factor was then developed to incorporate rainfall intensity in an improved DE model. With the original DE model, we estimated total (137)Cs loss by leaching from canopies to be 72 ± 4%, 67 ± 4%, and 48 ± 2% of the total plume deposition under mature cedar, young cedar, and broad-leaf forests, respectively. In contrast, with the improved DE model, the total (137)Cs loss by leaching was estimated to be 34 ± 2%, 34 ± 2%, and 16 ± 1% of the total plume deposition under mature cedar, young cedar, and broad-leaf forests, respectively. The improved DE model corresponds better to observed data in literature. Understanding (137)Cs and (134)Cs forest dynamics is important for forecasting future contamination of forest soils around the FDNPP. It also provides a basis for understanding forest transfers in future potential nuclear disasters.

  1. Internal Flow Thermal/Fluid Modeling of STS-107 Port Wing in Support of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sharp, John R.; Kittredge, Ken; Schunk, Richard G.

    2003-01-01

    As part of the aero-thermodynamics team supporting the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAB), the Marshall Space Flight Center was asked to perform engineering analyses of internal flows in the port wing. The aero-thermodynamics team was split into internal flow and external flow teams with the support being divided between shorter timeframe engineering methods and more complex computational fluid dynamics. In order to gain a rough order of magnitude type of knowledge of the internal flow in the port wing for various breach locations and sizes (as theorized by the CAB to have caused the Columbia re-entry failure), a bulk venting model was required to input boundary flow rates and pressures to the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. This paper summarizes the modeling that was done by MSFC in Thermal Desktop. A venting model of the entire Orbiter was constructed in FloCAD based on Rockwell International s flight substantiation analyses and the STS-107 reentry trajectory. Chemical equilibrium air thermodynamic properties were generated for SINDA/FLUINT s fluid property routines from a code provided by Langley Research Center. In parallel, a simplified thermal mathematical model of the port wing, including the Thermal Protection System (TPS), was based on more detailed Shuttle re-entry modeling previously done by the Dryden Flight Research Center. Once the venting model was coupled with the thermal model of the wing structure with chemical equilibrium air properties, various breach scenarios were assessed in support of the aero-thermodynamics team. The construction of the coupled model and results are presented herein.

  2. The Global 2000 Report to the President. Volume Three. Documentation on the Government's Global Sectoral Models: The Government's "Global Model."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barney, Gerald O., Ed.

    The third volume of the Global 2000 study presents basic information ("documentation") on the long-term sectoral models used by the U.S. government to project global trends in population, resources, and the environment. Its threefold purposes are: (1) to present all this basic information in a single volume, (2) to provide an…

  3. Modelling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christoudias, T.; Lelieveld, J.

    2013-02-01

    We modeled the global atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. The EMAC atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model was used, with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We applied a resolution of approximately 0.5 degrees in latitude and longitude (T255). The model accounts for emissions and transport of the radioactive isotopes 131I and 137Cs, and removal processes through precipitation, particle sedimentation and dry deposition. In addition, we simulated the release of 133Xe, a noble gas that can be regarded as a passive transport tracer of contaminated air. The source terms are based on Chino et al. (2011) and Stohl et al. (2012); especially the emission estimates of 131I are associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The calculated concentrations have been compared to station observations by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO). We calculated that about 80% of the radioactivity from Fukushima which was released to the atmosphere deposited into the Pacific Ocean. In Japan a large inhabited land area was contaminated by more than 40 kBq m-2. We also estimated the inhalation and 50-year dose by 137Cs, 134Cs and 131I to which the people in Japan are exposed.

  4. Modelling the global atmospheric transport and deposition of radionuclides from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christoudias, T.; Lelieveld, J.

    2012-09-01

    We modeled the global atmospheric dispersion and deposition of radionuclides released from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident. The EMAC atmospheric chemistry - general circulation model was used, with circulation dynamics nudged towards ERA-Interim reanalysis data. We applied a resolution of approximately 0.5 degrees in latitude and longitude (T255). The model accounts for emissions and transport of the radioactive isotopes 131I and 137Cs, and removal processes through precipitation, particle sedimentation and dry deposition. In addition, we simulated the release of 133Xe, a noble gas that can be regarded as a passive transport tracer of contaminated air. The source terms are based on Stohl et al. (2012) and Chino et al. (2011); especially the emission estimates of 131I are associated with a high degree of uncertainty. The calculated concentrations have been compared to station observations by the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO). We calculated that about 80% of the radioactivity from Fukushima which was released to the atmosphere deposited into the Pacific Ocean. In Japan a land area of 34 000 km2 around the reactors, inhabited by nearly 10 million people, was contaminated by more than 40 kBq m-2. We also estimated the inhalation and 50-yr dose by 137Cs and 131I to which the people in Japan have been exposed.

  5. SAS4A: A computer model for the analysis of hypothetical core disruptive accidents in liquid metal reactors

    SciTech Connect

    Tentner, A.M.; Birgersson, G.; Cahalan, J.E.; Dunn, F.E.; Kalimullah; Miles, K.J.

    1987-01-01

    To ensure that the public health and safety are protected under any accident conditions in a Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR), many accidents are analyzed for their potential consequences. The SAS4A code system, described in this paper, provides such an analysis capability, including the ability to analyze low probability events such as the Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents (HCDAs). The SAS4A code system has been designed to simulate all the events that occur in a LMFBR core during the initiating phase of a Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accident. During such postulated accident scenarios as the Loss-of-Flow and Transient Overpower events, a large number of interrelated physical phenomena occur during a relatively short time. These phenomena include transient heat transfer and hydrodynamic events, coolant boiling and fuel and cladding melting and relocation. During to the strong neutronic feedback present in a nuclear reactor, these events can significantly influence the reactor power. The SAS4A code system is used in the safety analysis of nuclear reactors, in order to estimate the energetic potential of very low probability accidents. The results of SAS4A simulations are also used by reactor designers in order to build safer reactors and eliminate the possibility of any accident which could endanger the public safety.

  6. Dynamic (G2) Model Design Document, 24590-WTP-MDD-PR-01-002, Rev. 12

    SciTech Connect

    Deng, Yueying; Kruger, Albert A.

    2013-12-16

    The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Statement of Work (Department of Energy Contract DE-AC27-01RV14136, Section C) requires the contractor to develop and use process models for flowsheet analyses and pre-operational planning assessments. The Dynamic (G2) Flowsheet is a discrete-time process model that enables the project to evaluate impacts to throughput from eventdriven activities such as pumping, sampling, storage, recycle, separation, and chemical reactions. The model is developed by the Process Engineering (PE) department, and is based on the Flowsheet Bases, Assumptions, and Requirements Document (24590-WTP-RPT-PT-02-005), commonly called the BARD. The terminologies of Dynamic (G2) Flowsheet and Dynamic (G2) Model are interchangeable in this document. The foundation of this model is a dynamic material balance governed by prescribed initial conditions, boundary conditions, and operating logic. The dynamic material balance is achieved by tracking the storage and material flows within the plant as time increments. The initial conditions include a feed vector that represents the waste compositions and delivery sequence of the Tank Farm batches, and volumes and concentrations of solutions in process equipment before startup. The boundary conditions are the physical limits of the flowsheet design, such as piping, volumes, flowrates, operation efficiencies, and physical and chemical environments that impact separations, phase equilibriums, and reaction extents. The operating logic represents the rules and strategies of running the plant.

  7. Commuting accidents in the German chemical industry.

    PubMed

    Zepf, Kirsten Isabel; Letzel, Stephan; Voelter-Mahlknecht, Susanne; Wriede, Ulrich; Husemann, Britta; Escobar Pinzón, Luis Carlos

    2010-01-01

    Due to accident severity and the extent of claim payments commuting accidents are a significant expense factor in the German industry. Therefore the aim of the present study was the identification of risk factors for commuting accidents in a German chemical company. A retrospective analysis of commuting accidents recorded between 1990 and 2003 was conducted in a major chemical company in Germany. A logistic regression-model was calculated in order to determine factors influencing the duration of work inability as a result of commuting accidents. The analysed data included 5,484 employees with commuting accidents. Cars (33.1%) and bicycles (30.5%) were the most common types of vehicles used by commuters who had an accident. The highest number of commuting accidents was observed in the age group under 26 yr. Accidents on the route from the work site to the worker's residence were less frequently observed, but they caused longer periods of work inability than accidents on the way to the work site. The longest periods of work inability were found in the groups of motorcyclists and older employees. The present study identifies specific groups at risk for commuting accidents. The data of the present investigation also underline the need for developing group specific prevention strategies.

  8. Regression model analysis of the decreasing trend of cesium-137 concentration in the atmosphere since the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Kitayama, Kyo; Ohse, Kenji; Shima, Nagayoshi; Kawatsu, Kencho; Tsukada, Hirofumi

    2016-11-01

    The decreasing trend of the atmospheric (137)Cs concentration in two cities in Fukushima prefecture was analyzed by a regression model to clarify the relation between the parameter of the decrease in the model and the trend and to compare the trend with that after the Chernobyl accident. The (137)Cs particle concentration measurements were conducted in urban Fukushima and rural Date sites from September 2012 to June 2015. The (137)Cs particle concentrations were separated in two groups: particles of more than 1.1 μm aerodynamic diameters (coarse particles) and particles with aerodynamic diameter lower than 1.1 μm (fine particles). The averages of the measured concentrations were 0.1 mBq m(-3) in Fukushima and Date sites. The measured concentrations were applied in the regression model which decomposed them into two components: trend and seasonal variation. The trend concentration included the parameters for the constant and the exponential decrease. The parameter for the constant was slightly different between the Fukushima and Date sites. The parameter for the exponential decrease was similar for all the cases, and much higher than the value of the physical radioactive decay except for the concentration in the fine particles at the Date site. The annual decreasing rates of the (137)Cs concentration evaluated by the trend concentration ranged from 44 to 53% y(-1) with average and standard deviation of 49 ± 8% y(-1) for all the cases in 2013. In the other years, the decreasing rates also varied slightly for all cases. These indicated that the decreasing trend of the (137)Cs concentration was nearly unchanged for the location and ground contamination level in the three years after the accident. The (137)Cs activity per aerosol particle mass also decreased with the same trend as the (137)Cs concentration in the atmosphere. The results indicated that the decreasing trend of the atmospheric (137)Cs concentration was related with the reduction of the (137)Cs

  9. Documentation for grants equal to tax model: Volume 3, Source code

    SciTech Connect

    Boryczka, M.K.

    1986-01-01

    The GETT model is capable of forecasting the amount of tax liability associated with all property owned and all activities undertaken by the US Department of Energy (DOE) in site characterization and repository development. The GETT program is a user-friendly, menu-driven model developed using dBASE III/trademark/, a relational data base management system. The data base for GETT consists primarily of eight separate dBASE III/trademark/ files corresponding to each of the eight taxes (real property, personal property, corporate income, franchise, sales, use, severance, and excise) levied by State and local jurisdictions on business property and activity. Additional smaller files help to control model inputs and reporting options. Volume 3 of the GETT model documentation is the source code. The code is arranged primarily by the eight tax types. Other code files include those for JURISDICTION, SIMULATION, VALIDATION, TAXES, CHANGES, REPORTS, GILOT, and GETT. The code has been verified through hand calculations.

  10. A Distributed Agent Implementation of Multiple Species Flocking Model for Document Partitioning Clustering

    SciTech Connect

    Cui, Xiaohui; Potok, Thomas E

    2006-01-01

    The Flocking model, first proposed by Craig Reynolds, is one of the first bio-inspired computational collective behavior models that has many popular applications, such as animation. Our early research has resulted in a flock clustering algorithm that can achieve better performance than the Kmeans or the Ant clustering algorithms for data clustering. This algorithm generates a clustering of a given set of data through the embedding of the highdimensional data items on a two-dimensional grid for efficient clustering result retrieval and visualization. In this paper, we propose a bio-inspired clustering model, the Multiple Species Flocking clustering model (MSF), and present a distributed multi-agent MSF approach for document clustering.

  11. Quantifying the risk of extreme aviation accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Das, Kumer Pial; Dey, Asim Kumer

    2016-12-01

    Air travel is considered a safe means of transportation. But when aviation accidents do occur they often result in fatalities. Fortunately, the most extreme accidents occur rarely. However, 2014 was the deadliest year in the past decade causing 111 plane crashes, and among them worst four crashes cause 298, 239, 162 and 116 deaths. In this study, we want to assess the risk of the catastrophic aviation accidents by studying historical aviation accidents. Applying a generalized Pareto model we predict the maximum fatalities from an aviation accident in future. The fitted model is compared with some of its competitive models. The uncertainty in the inferences are quantified using simulated aviation accident series, generated by bootstrap resampling and Monte Carlo simulations.

  12. Estimation of radionuclide ((137)Cs) emission rates from a nuclear power plant accident using the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM).

    PubMed

    Park, Soon-Ung; Lee, In-Hye; Ju, Jae-Won; Joo, Seung Jin

    2016-10-01

    A methodology for the estimation of the emission rate of (137)Cs by the Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) with the use of monitored (137)Cs concentrations around a nuclear power plant has been developed. This method has been employed with the MM5 meteorological model in the 600 km × 600 km model domain with the horizontal grid scale of 3 km × 3 km centered at the Fukushima nuclear power plant to estimate (137)Cs emission rate for the accidental period from 00 UTC 12 March to 00 UTC 6 April 2011. The Lagrangian Particles are released continuously with the rate of one particle per minute at the first level modelled, about 15 m above the power plant site. The presently developed method was able to simulate quite reasonably the estimated (137)Cs emission rate compared with other studies, suggesting the potential usefulness of the present method for the estimation of the emission rate from the accidental power plant without detailed inventories of reactors and fuel assemblies and spent fuels. The advantage of this method is not so complicated but can be applied only based on one-time forward LPDM simulation with monitored concentrations around the power plant, in contrast to other inverse models. It was also found that continuously monitored radionuclides concentrations from possibly many sites located in all directions around the power plant are required to get accurate continuous emission rates from the accident power plant. The current methodology can also be used to verify the previous version of radionuclides emissions used among other modeling groups for the cases of intermittent or discontinuous samplings.

  13. Documentation of a deep percolation model for estimating ground-water recharge

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bauer, H.H.; Vaccaro, J.J.

    1987-01-01

    A deep percolation model, which operates on a daily basis, was developed to estimate long-term average groundwater recharge from precipitation. It has been designed primarily to simulate recharge in large areas with variable weather, soils, and land uses, but it can also be used at any scale. The physical and mathematical concepts of the deep percolation model, its subroutines and data requirements, and input data sequence and formats are documented. The physical processes simulated are soil moisture accumulation, evaporation from bare soil, plant transpiration, surface water runoff, snow accumulation and melt, and accumulation and evaporation of intercepted precipitation. The minimum data sets for the operation of the model are daily values of precipitation and maximum and minimum air temperature, soil thickness and available water capacity, soil texture, and land use. Long-term average annual precipitation, actual daily stream discharge, monthly estimates of base flow, Soil Conservation Service surface runoff curve numbers, land surface altitude-slope-aspect, and temperature lapse rates are optional. The program is written in the FORTRAN 77 language with no enhancements and should run on most computer systems without modifications. Documentation has been prepared so that program modifications may be made for inclusions of additional physical processes or deletion of ones not considered important. (Author 's abstract)

  14. Upgrading the safety toolkit: Initiatives of the accident analysis subgroup

    SciTech Connect

    O'Kula, K.R.; Chung, D.Y.

    1999-07-01

    Since its inception, the Accident Analysis Subgroup (AAS) of the Energy Facility Contractors Group (EFCOG) has been a leading organization promoting development and application of appropriate methodologies for safety analysis of US Department of Energy (DOE) installations. The AAS, one of seven chartered by the EFCOG Safety Analysis Working Group, has performed an oversight function and provided direction to several technical groups. These efforts have been instrumental toward formal evaluation of computer models, improving the pedigree on high-use computer models, and development of the user-friendly Accident Analysis Guidebook (AAG). All of these improvements have improved the analytical toolkit for best complying with DOE orders and standards shaping safety analysis reports (SARs) and related documentation. Major support for these objectives has been through DOE/DP-45.

  15. Technical documentation and user's guide for City-County Allocation Model (CCAM). Version 1. 0

    SciTech Connect

    Clark, L.T. Jr.; Scott, M.J.; Hammer, P.

    1986-05-01

    The City-County Allocation Model (CCAM) was developed as part of the Monitored Retrievable Storage (MRS) Program. The CCAM model was designed to allocate population changes forecasted by the MASTER model to specific local communities within commuting distance of the MRS facility. The CCAM model was designed to then forecast the potential changes in demand for key community services such as housing, police protection, and utilities for these communities. The CCAM model uses a flexible on-line data base on demand for community services that is based on a combination of local service levels and state and national service standards. The CCAM model can be used to quickly forecast the potential community service consequence of economic development for local communities anywhere in the country. The remainder of this document is organized as follows. The purpose of this manual is to assist the user in understanding and operating the City-County Allocation Model (CCAM). The annual explains the data sources for the model and code modifications as well as the operational procedures.

  16. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  17. A Review of Accident Modelling Approaches for Complex Critical Sociotechnical Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-01-01

    integrated model has been demonstrated by analysing the failure in the Therac -25 sociotechnical system. THERAC -25 was an X-ray treatment machine...Baxter (2003) developed a three-layer model for the THERAC -25 system: the regulation authorities, the company who developed the system, and the...FailureFault Error FailureFault Error Failure THERAC -25 FAILURE DESIGN and CERTIFICATION Programmer Company Regulation Authorities Figure 7: Integrating

  18. Revision and documentation of the CDI metadata model as a ISO 19115 profile

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boldrini, E.; Broeren, B.; Schaap, D. M. A.; Nativi, S.; Manzella, G. M. R.

    2012-04-01

    SeaDataNet 2 is an FP7 project (grant agreement 283607), started on October 1st, 2011 for a duration of four years, which aims to upgrade the present SeaDataNet infrastructure into an operationally robust and state-of-the-art Pan-European infrastructure for ocean and marine data and metadata products. The Common Data Index (CDI) constitutes an online metadata service providing discovery and access capabilities to final users. Professional data centres, active in data collection, constitute a Pan-European network providing on-line integrated databases of standardized quality through CDI. The roadmap for the second phase of SeaDataNet include: - Realization of technical and semantic interoperability with other relevant data management systems and initiatives on behalf of science, environmental management, policy making, and economy - Definition, adoption and promotion of common data management standards to ensure the platforms interoperability. The CDI metadata model and its XML schema have in particular been the object of standardization efforts through the SeaDataNet project; the second phase will pursue the work. CDI metadata model development started in 2005; the CDI schema was based upon the then available ISO 19115 DTD. Several releases of both schema and data model documentation have followed to arrive at the 1.6 version in June 2010. This version contains important modifications and updates (e.g. GML and Service Bindings extensions, instrument multiplicity, spatial resolution and frequency, …), reflecting updated requirements and needs of the marine data community; at this time CDI should be considered a de-facto standard for marine metadata in the European region. Compliance with ISO standards has always been sought (e.g. a past work targets the use of ISO 19139 XML schema as a CDI metadata encoding). The present work aim has been to revise and formally document the existing CDI metadata model as a ISO 19115 metadata standard profile: this step was needed

  19. A model for the release, dispersion and environmental impact of a postulated reactor accident from a submerged commercial nuclear power plant

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bertch, Timothy Creston

    1998-12-01

    Nuclear power plants are inherently suitable for submerged applications and could provide power to the shore power grid or support future underwater applications. The technology exists today and the construction of a submerged commercial nuclear power plant may become desirable. A submerged reactor is safer to humans because the infinite supply of water for heat removal, particulate retention in the water column, sedimentation to the ocean floor and inherent shielding of the aquatic environment would significantly mitigate the effects of a reactor accident. A better understanding of reactor operation in this new environment is required to quantify the radioecological impact and to determine the suitability of this concept. The impact of release to the environment from a severe reactor accident is a new aspect of the field of marine radioecology. Current efforts have been centered on radioecological impacts of nuclear waste disposal, nuclear weapons testing fallout and shore nuclear plant discharges. This dissertation examines the environmental impact of a severe reactor accident in a submerged commercial nuclear power plant, modeling a postulated site on the Atlantic continental shelf adjacent to the United States. This effort models the effects of geography, decay, particle transport/dispersion, bioaccumulation and elimination with associated dose commitment. The use of a source term equivalent to the release from Chernobyl allows comparison between the impacts of that accident and the postulated submerged commercial reactor plant accident. All input parameters are evaluated using sensitivity analysis. The effect of the release on marine biota is determined. Study of the pathways to humans from gaseous radionuclides, consumption of contaminated marine biota and direct exposure as contaminated water reaches the shoreline is conducted. The model developed by this effort predicts a significant mitigation of the radioecological impact of the reactor accident release

  20. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the steam intrusion from interfacing systems accident

    SciTech Connect

    Van Vleet, R.J.; Ryan, G.W.; Crowe, R.D.; Lindberg, S.E., Fluor Daniel Hanford

    1997-03-04

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR): Steam Intrusion From Interfacing Systems. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included in the following sections to aid in the understanding of this accident scenario. Information validation forms citing assumptions that were approved for use specifically in this analysis are included in Appendix A. Copies of these forms are also on file with TWRS Project Files. Calculations performed in this document, in general, are expressed in traditional (English) units to aid understanding of the accident scenario and related parameters.

  1. User Guide and Documentation for Five MODFLOW Ground-Water Modeling Utility Programs

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Banta, Edward R.; Paschke, Suzanne S.; Litke, David W.

    2008-01-01

    This report documents five utility programs designed for use in conjunction with ground-water flow models developed with the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW ground-water modeling program. One program extracts calculated flow values from one model for use as input to another model. The other four programs extract model input or output arrays from one model and make them available in a form that can be used to generate an ArcGIS raster data set. The resulting raster data sets may be useful for visual display of the data or for further geographic data processing. The utility program GRID2GRIDFLOW reads a MODFLOW binary output file of cell-by-cell flow terms for one (source) model grid and converts the flow values to input flow values for a different (target) model grid. The spatial and temporal discretization of the two models may differ. The four other utilities extract selected 2-dimensional data arrays in MODFLOW input and output files and write them to text files that can be imported into an ArcGIS geographic information system raster format. These four utilities require that the model cells be square and aligned with the projected coordinate system in which the model grid is defined. The four raster-conversion utilities are * CBC2RASTER, which extracts selected stress-package flow data from a MODFLOW binary output file of cell-by-cell flows; * DIS2RASTER, which extracts cell-elevation data from a MODFLOW Discretization file; * MFBIN2RASTER, which extracts array data from a MODFLOW binary output file of head or drawdown; and * MULT2RASTER, which extracts array data from a MODFLOW Multiplier file.

  2. Emulation and Sobol' sensitivity analysis of an atmospheric dispersion model applied to the Fukushima nuclear accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Girard, Sylvain; Mallet, Vivien; Korsakissok, Irène; Mathieu, Anne

    2016-04-01

    Simulations of the atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides involve large uncertainties originating from the limited knowledge of meteorological input data, composition, amount and timing of emissions, and some model parameters. The estimation of these uncertainties is an essential complement to modeling for decision making in case of an accidental release. We have studied the relative influence of a set of uncertain inputs on several outputs from the Eulerian model Polyphemus/Polair3D on the Fukushima case. We chose to use the variance-based sensitivity analysis method of Sobol'. This method requires a large number of model evaluations which was not achievable directly due to the high computational cost of Polyphemus/Polair3D. To circumvent this issue, we built a mathematical approximation of the model using Gaussian process emulation. We observed that aggregated outputs are mainly driven by the amount of emitted radionuclides, while local outputs are mostly sensitive to wind perturbations. The release height is notably influential, but only in the vicinity of the source. Finally, averaging either spatially or temporally tends to cancel out interactions between uncertain inputs.

  3. World Meteorological Organization's model simulations of the radionuclide dispersion and deposition from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Draxler, Roland; Arnold, Dèlia; Chino, Masamichi; Galmarini, Stefano; Hort, Matthew; Jones, Andrew; Leadbetter, Susan; Malo, Alain; Maurer, Christian; Rolph, Glenn; Saito, Kazuo; Servranckx, René; Shimbori, Toshiki; Solazzo, Efisio; Wotawa, Gerhard

    2015-01-01

    Five different atmospheric transport and dispersion model's (ATDM) deposition and air concentration results for atmospheric releases from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident were evaluated over Japan using regional (137)Cs deposition measurements and (137)Cs and (131)I air concentration time series at one location about 110 km from the plant. Some of the ATDMs used the same and others different meteorological data consistent with their normal operating practices. There were four global meteorological analyses data sets available and two regional high-resolution analyses. Not all of the ATDMs were able to use all of the meteorological data combinations. The ATDMs were configured identically as much as possible with respect to the release duration, release height, concentration grid size, and averaging time. However, each ATDM retained its unique treatment of the vertical velocity field and the wet and dry deposition, one of the largest uncertainties in these calculations. There were 18 ATDM-meteorology combinations available for evaluation. The deposition results showed that even when using the same meteorological analysis, each ATDM can produce quite different deposition patterns. The better calculations in terms of both deposition and air concentration were associated with the smoother ATDM deposition patterns. The best model with respect to the deposition was not always the best model with respect to air concentrations. The use of high-resolution mesoscale analyses improved ATDM performance; however, high-resolution precipitation analyses did not improve ATDM predictions. Although some ATDMs could be identified as better performers for either deposition or air concentration calculations, overall, the ensemble mean of a subset of better performing members provided more consistent results for both types of calculations.

  4. Estimation of the time-dependent radioactive source-term from the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using atmospheric transport modelling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schoeppner, M.; Plastino, W.; Budano, A.; De Vincenzi, M.; Ruggieri, F.

    2012-04-01

    Several nuclear reactors at the Fukushima Dai-ichi power plant have been severely damaged from the Tōhoku earthquake and the subsequent tsunami in March 2011. Due to the extremely difficult on-site situation it has been not been possible to directly determine the emissions of radioactive material. However, during the following days and weeks radionuclides of 137-Caesium and 131-Iodine (amongst others) were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Atmospheric transport models are able to simulate the worldwide dispersion of particles accordant to location, time and meteorological conditions following the release. The Lagrangian atmospheric transport model Flexpart is used by many authorities and has been proven to make valid predictions in this regard. The Flexpart software has first has been ported to a local cluster computer at the Grid Lab of INFN and Department of Physics of University of Roma Tre (Rome, Italy) and subsequently also to the European Mediterranean Grid (EUMEDGRID). Due to this computing power being available it has been possible to simulate the transport of particles originating from the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant site. Using the time series of the sampled concentration data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it has been possible to estimate the time-dependent source-term for fourteen days following the accident using the atmospheric transport model. A reasonable agreement has been obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident.

  5. Documentation pckage for the RFID temperature monitoring system (Of Model 9977 packages at NTS).

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, K.; Tsai, H.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2009-02-20

    The technical basis for extending the Model 9977 shipping package periodic maintenance beyond the one-year interval to a maximum of five years is based on the performance of the O-ring seals and the environmental conditions. The DOE Packaging Certification Program (PCP) has tasked Argonne National Laboratory to develop a Radio-Frequency Identification (RFID) temperature monitoring system for use by the facility personnel at DAF/NTS. The RFID temperature monitoring system, depicted in the figure below, consists of the Mk-1 RFId tags, a reader, and a control computer mounted on a mobile platform that can operate as a stand-alone system, or it can be connected to the local IT network. As part of the Conditions of Approval of the CoC, the user must complete the prescribed training to become qualified and be certified for operation of the RFID temperature monitoring system. The training course will be administered by Argonne National Laboratory on behalf of the Headquarters Certifying Official. This is a complete documentation package for the RFID temperature monitoring system of the Model 9977 packagings at NTS. The documentation package will be used for training and certification. The table of contents are: Acceptance Testing Procedure of MK-1 RFID Tags for DOE/EM Nuclear Materials Management Applications; Acceptance Testing Result of MK-1 RFID Tags for DOE/EM Nuclear Materials Management Applications; Performance Test of the Single Bolt Seal Sensor for the Model 9977 Packaging; Calibration of Built-in Thermistors in RFID Tags for Nevada Test Site; Results of Calibration of Built-in Thermistors in RFID Tags; Results of Thermal Calibration of Second Batch of MK-I RFID Tags; Procedure for Installing and Removing MK-1 RFID Tag on Model 9977 Drum; User Guide for RFID Reader and Software for Temperature Monitoring of Model 9977 Drums at NTS; Software Quality Assurance Plan (SQAP) for the ARG-US System; Quality Category for the RFID Temperature Monitoring System; The

  6. A conceptual framework to design a dimensional model based on the HL7 Clinical Document Architecture.

    PubMed

    Pecoraro, Fabrizio; Luzi, Daniela; Ricci, Fabrizio L

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a conceptual framework to design a dimensional model based on the HL7 Clinical Document Architecture (CDA) standard. The adoption of this framework can represent a possible solution to facilitate the integration of heterogeneous information systems in a clinical data warehouse. This can simplify the Extract, Transform and Load (ETL) procedures that are considered the most time-consuming and expensive part of the data warehouse development process. The paper describes the main activities to be carried out to design the dimensional model outlining the main advantages in the application of the proposed framework. The feasibility of our approach is also demonstrated providing a case study to define clinical indicators for quality assessment.

  7. A cross-scale numerical modeling system for management support of oil spill accidents.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, Alberto; Oliveira, Anabela; Fortunato, André B; Zhang, Joseph; Baptista, António M

    2014-03-15

    A flexible 2D/3D oil spill modeling system addressing the distinct nature of the surface and water column fluids, major oil weathering and improved retention/reposition processes in coastal zones is presented. The system integrates hydrodynamic, transport and oil weathering modules, which can be combined to offer different-complexity descriptions as required by applications across the river-to-ocean continuum. Features include accounting for different composition and reology in the surface and water column mixtures, as well as spreading, evaporation, water-in-oil emulsification, shoreline retention, dispersion and dissolution. The use of unstructured grids provides flexibility and efficiency in handling spills in complex geometries and across scales. The use of high-order Eulerian-Lagrangian methods allows for computational efficiency and for handling key processes in ways consistent with their distinct mathematical nature and time scales. The modeling system is tested through a suite of synthetic, laboratory and realistic-domain benchmarks, which demonstrate robust handling of key processes and of 2D/3D couplings. The application of the modeling system to a spill scenario at the entrance of a port in a coastal lagoon illustrates the power of the approach to represent spills that occur in coastal regions with complex boundaries and bathymetry.

  8. Risk-based modeling of early warning systems for pollution accidents.

    PubMed

    Grayman, W M; Males, R M

    2002-01-01

    An early warning system is a mechanism for detecting, characterizing and providing notification of a source water contamination event (spill event) in order to mitigate the impact of contamination. Spill events are highly probabilistic occurrences with major spills, which can have very significant impacts on raw water sources of drinking water, being relatively rare. A systematic method for designing and operating early warning systems that considers the highly variable, probabilistic nature of many aspects of the system is described. The methodology accounts for the probability of spills, behavior of monitoring equipment, variable hydrology, and the probability of obtaining information about spills independent of a monitoring system. Spill Risk, a risk-based model using Monte Carlo simulation techniques has been developed and its utility has been demonstrated as part of an AWWA Research Foundation sponsored project. The model has been applied to several hypothetical river situations and to an actual section of the Ohio River. Additionally, the model has been systematically applied to a wide range of conditions in order to develop general guidance on design of early warning systems.

  9. A Hyperbolic Ontology Visualization Tool for Model Application Programming Interface Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hyman, Cody

    2011-01-01

    Spacecraft modeling, a critically important portion in validating planned spacecraft activities, is currently carried out using a time consuming method of mission to mission model implementations and integration. A current project in early development, Integrated Spacecraft Analysis (ISCA), aims to remedy this hindrance by providing reusable architectures and reducing time spent integrating models with planning and sequencing tools. The principle objective of this internship was to develop a user interface for an experimental ontology-based structure visualization of navigation and attitude control system modeling software. To satisfy this, a number of tree and graph visualization tools were researched and a Java based hyperbolic graph viewer was selected for experimental adaptation. Early results show promise in the ability to organize and display large amounts of spacecraft model documentation efficiently and effectively through a web browser. This viewer serves as a conceptual implementation for future development but trials with both ISCA developers and end users should be performed to truly evaluate the effectiveness of continued development of such visualizations.

  10. Air Quality Modeling Technical Support Document for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS Cross-State Air Pollution Rule Proposal

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    In this technical support document (TSD) we describe the air quality modeling performed to support the proposed Cross-State Air Pollution Rule for the 2008 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)

  11. The determinants of fishing vessel accident severity.

    PubMed

    Jin, Di

    2014-05-01

    The study examines the determinants of fishing vessel accident severity in the Northeastern United States using vessel accident data from the U.S. Coast Guard for 2001-2008. Vessel damage and crew injury severity equations were estimated separately utilizing the ordered probit model. The results suggest that fishing vessel accident severity is significantly affected by several types of accidents. Vessel damage severity is positively associated with loss of stability, sinking, daytime wind speed, vessel age, and distance to shore. Vessel damage severity is negatively associated with vessel size and daytime sea level pressure. Crew injury severity is also positively related to the loss of vessel stability and sinking.

  12. Applying quantile regression for modeling equivalent property damage only crashes to identify accident blackspots.

    PubMed

    Washington, Simon; Haque, Md Mazharul; Oh, Jutaek; Lee, Dongmin

    2014-05-01

    Hot spot identification (HSID) aims to identify potential sites-roadway segments, intersections, crosswalks, interchanges, ramps, etc.-with disproportionately high crash risk relative to similar sites. An inefficient HSID methodology might result in either identifying a safe site as high risk (false positive) or a high risk site as safe (false negative), and consequently lead to the misuse the available public funds, to poor investment decisions, and to inefficient risk management practice. Current HSID methods suffer from issues like underreporting of minor injury and property damage only (PDO) crashes, challenges of accounting for crash severity into the methodology, and selection of a proper safety performance function to model crash data that is often heavily skewed by a preponderance of zeros. Addressing these challenges, this paper proposes a combination of a PDO equivalency calculation and quantile regression technique to identify hot spots in a transportation network. In particular, issues related to underreporting and crash severity are tackled by incorporating equivalent PDO crashes, whilst the concerns related to the non-count nature of equivalent PDO crashes and the skewness of crash data are addressed by the non-parametric quantile regression technique. The proposed method identifies covariate effects on various quantiles of a population, rather than the population mean like most methods in practice, which more closely corresponds with how black spots are identified in practice. The proposed methodology is illustrated using rural road segment data from Korea and compared against the traditional EB method with negative binomial regression. Application of a quantile regression model on equivalent PDO crashes enables identification of a set of high-risk sites that reflect the true safety costs to the society, simultaneously reduces the influence of under-reported PDO and minor injury crashes, and overcomes the limitation of traditional NB model in dealing

  13. Applying a sociolinguistic model to the analysis of informed consent documents.

    PubMed

    Granero-Molina, José; Fernández-Sola, Cayetano; Aguilera-Manrique, Gabriel

    2009-11-01

    Information on the risks and benefits related to surgical procedures is essential for patients in order to obtain their informed consent. Some disciplines, such as sociolinguistics, offer insights that are helpful for patient-professional communication in both written and oral consent. Communication difficulties become more acute when patients make decisions through an informed consent document because they may sign this with a lack of understanding and information, and consequently feel deprived of their freedom to make their choice about different treatments or surgery. This article discusses findings from documentary analysis using the sociolinguistic SPEAKING model, which was applied to the general and specific informed consent documents required for laparoscopic surgery of the bile duct at Torrecárdenas Hospital, Almería, Spain. The objective of this procedure was to identify flaws when information was provided, together with its readability, its voluntary basis, and patients' consent. The results suggest potential linguistic communication difficulties, different languages being used, cultural clashes, asymmetry of communication between professionals and patients, assignment of rights on the part of patients, and overprotection of professionals and institutions.

  14. Mapping and modelling of radionuclide distribution on the ground due to the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Saito, Kimiaki

    2014-08-01

    A large-scale environmental monitoring effort, construction of detailed contamination maps based on the monitoring data, studies on radiocaesium migration in natural environments, construction of a prediction model for the air dose rate distribution in the 80 km zone, and construction of a database to preserve and keep open the obtained data have been implemented as national projects. Temporal changes in contamination conditions were analysed. It was found that air dose rates above roads have decreased much faster than those above undisturbed flat fields. Further, the decreasing tendency was found to depend on land uses, magnitudes of initial dose rates and some other factors.

  15. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: a modeling study for radiocaesium ((134)Cs &(137)Cs).

    PubMed

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

    2014-03-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous radionuclides emitted, (137)Cs (half-life: 30.2years) and (134)Cs (half-life: 2.06years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, cancer risks are presented for the local population in the form of high-resolution risk maps for 3 population classes and for both sexes. The atmospheric transport model LMDZORINCA was used to simulate the global dispersion of radiocaesium after the accident. Air and ground activity concentrations have been incorporated with monitoring data as input to the LNT-model (Linear Non-Threshold) frequently used in risk assessments of all solid cancers. Cancer risks were estimated to be small for the global population in regions outside Japan. Women are more sensitive to radiation than men, although the largest risks were recorded for infants; the risk is not depended on the sex at the age-at-exposure. Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730-1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein). Finally, we applied the same calculations using the DDREF (Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor), which is recommended by the ICRP, UNSCEAR and EPA as an alternative reduction factor instead of using a threshold value (which is still unknown). Excess lifetime cancer

  16. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Electricity Generation and Fuel Consumption Models

    EIA Publications

    2014-01-01

    The electricity generation and fuel consumption models of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provide forecasts of electricity generation from various types of energy sources and forecasts of the quantities of fossil fuels consumed for power generation. The structure of the electricity industry and the behavior of power generators varies between different areas of the United States. In order to capture these differences, the STEO electricity supply and fuel consumption models are designed to provide forecasts for the four primary Census regions.

  17. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Propane Price Model

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential propane price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 Census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  18. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Motor Gasoline Consumption Model

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    The motor gasoline consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of total U.S. consumption of motor gasolien based on estimates of vehicle miles traveled and average vehicle fuel economy.

  19. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Regional Residential Heating Oil Price Model

    EIA Publications

    2009-01-01

    The regional residential heating oil price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide residential retail price forecasts for the 4 census regions: Northeast, South, Midwest, and West.

  20. Simulation Modeling of Zooplankton and Benthos in Reservoirs: Documentation and Development of Model Constructs.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-03-01

    phosphorus to account for material flow in the system. Fourth, the recommended minimum time frame for model simulation is 1 day. Subject areas covered by...percent N after 15 weeks in a buffered Hexamine solution (Hopkins 1968). Hopkins believed that most of the leached material was protein. Similar...Modeling such a simple flow of material would be relatively easy, but, unfortunately, it would probably have little relation to the real world. The

  1. [Health consequences of the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Sewerin, I

    2001-10-22

    The Chernobyl accident in 1986 has been and still is the subject of great interest. Journalistic reports often contain exaggerations and undocumented statements and much uncertainty about the true consequences of the accident prevails in the population. This article reviews the current literature with the focus on reports from official commissions and documentation in the form of controlled studies. The fatal deterministic consequences comprise about 30 victims. The most important outcome is a marked increase in the incidence of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents in the most heavily contaminated area. Furthermore, pronounced psychosocial problems are dominant in the population of the contaminated area. Other significant and documented health consequences are not seen.

  2. 40 CFR 68.39 - Documentation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 15 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation. 68.39 Section 68.39... ACCIDENT PREVENTION PROVISIONS Hazard Assessment § 68.39 Documentation. The owner or operator shall... passive mitigation that were assumed to limit the quantity that could be released. Documentation...

  3. Severe accident simulation at Olkiuoto

    SciTech Connect

    Tirkkonen, H.; Saarenpaeae, T.; Cliff Po, L.C.

    1995-09-01

    A personal computer-based simulator was developed for the Olkiluoto nuclear plant in Finland for training in severe accident management. The generic software PCTRAN was expanded to model the plant-specific features of the ABB Atom designed BWR including its containment over-pressure protection and filtered vent systems. Scenarios including core heat-up, hydrogen generation, core melt and vessel penetration were developed in this work. Radiation leakage paths and dose rate distribution are presented graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an graphically for operator use in diagnosis and mitigation of accidents. Operating on an 486 DX2-66, PCTRAN-TVO achieves a speed about 15 times faster than real-time. A convenient and user-friendly graphic interface allows full interactive control. In this paper a review of the component models and verification runs are presented.

  4. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis: Low LET radiation: Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models

    SciTech Connect

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.; Book, S.; Buncher, C.; Denniston, C.; Gilbert, E.; Hahn, F.; Hertzberg, V.; Maxon, H.; Scott, B.

    1989-05-01

    This report provides dose-response models intended to be used in estimating the radiological health effects of nuclear power plant accidents. Models of early and continuing effects, cancers and thyroid nodules, and genetic effects are provided. Two-parameter Weibull hazard functions are recommended for estimating the risks of early and continuing health effects. Three potentially lethal early effects -- the hematopoietic, pulmonary and gastrointestinal syndromes -- are considered. Linear and linear-quadratic models are recommended for estimating cancer risks. Parameters are given for analyzing the risks of seven types of cancer in adults -- leukemia, bone, lung, breast, gastrointestinal, thyroid and ''other''. The category, ''other'' cancers, is intended to reflect the combined risks of multiple myeloma, lymphoma, and cancers of the bladder, kidney, brain, ovary, uterus and cervix. Models of childhood cancers due to in utero exposure are also provided. For most cancers, both incidence and mortality are addressed. Linear and linear-quadratic models are also recommended for assessing genetic risks. Five classes of genetic disease -- dominant, x-linked, aneuploidy, unbalanced translocation and multifactorial diseases --are considered. In addition, the impact of radiation-induced genetic damage on the incidence of peri-implantation embryo losses is discussed. The uncertainty in modeling radiological health risks is addressed by providing central, upper, and lower estimates of all model parameters. Data are provided which should enable analysts to consider the timing and severity of each type of health risk. 22 refs., 14 figs., 51 tabs.

  5. Accident prevention in radiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Holmberg, O

    2007-01-01

    In order to prevent accidents in radiotherapy, it is important to learn from accidents that have occurred previously. Lessons learned from a number of accidents are summarised and underlying patterns are looked for in this paper. Accidents can be prevented by applying several safety layers of preventive actions. Categories of these preventive actions are discussed together with specific actions belonging to each category of safety layer. PMID:21614274

  6. Technical support document for proposed revision of the model energy code thermal envelope requirements

    SciTech Connect

    Conner, C.C.; Lucas, R.G.

    1993-02-01

    This report documents the development of the proposed revision of the council of American Building Officials` (CABO) 1993 supplement to the 1992 Model Energy Code (MEC) (referred to as the 1993 MEC) building thermal envelope requirements for single-family and low-rise multifamily residences. The goal of this analysis was to develop revised guidelines based on an objective methodology that determined the most cost-effective (least total life-cycle cost [LCC]) combination of energy conservation measures (ECMs) for residences in different locations. The ECMs with the lowest LCC were used as a basis for proposing revised MEC maximum U{sub o}-value (thermal transmittance) curves in the MEC format. The changes proposed here affect the requirements for ``group R`` residences. The group R residences are detached one- and two-family dwellings (referred to as single-family) and all other residential buildings three stories or less (referred to as multifamily).

  7. Technical support document for proposed revision of the model energy code thermal envelope requirements

    SciTech Connect

    Conner, C.C.; Lucas, R.G.

    1993-02-01

    This report documents the development of the proposed revision of the council of American Building Officials' (CABO) 1993 supplement to the 1992 Model Energy Code (MEC) (referred to as the 1993 MEC) building thermal envelope requirements for single-family and low-rise multifamily residences. The goal of this analysis was to develop revised guidelines based on an objective methodology that determined the most cost-effective (least total life-cycle cost [LCC]) combination of energy conservation measures (ECMs) for residences in different locations. The ECMs with the lowest LCC were used as a basis for proposing revised MEC maximum U[sub o]-value (thermal transmittance) curves in the MEC format. The changes proposed here affect the requirements for group R'' residences. The group R residences are detached one- and two-family dwellings (referred to as single-family) and all other residential buildings three stories or less (referred to as multifamily).

  8. Model developer`s appendix to the model documentation report: NEMS macroeconomic activity module

    SciTech Connect

    1994-07-15

    The NEMS Macroeconomic Activity Module (MAM) tested here was used to generate the Annual Energy Outlook 1994 (AEO94). MAM is a response surface model, not a structural model, composed of three submodules: the National Submodule, the Interindustry Submodule, and the Regional Submodule. Contents of this report are as follows: properties of the mathematical solution; NEMS MAM empirical basis; and scenario analysis. Scenario analysis covers: expectations for scenario analysis; historical world oil price scenario; AEO94 high world oil price scenario; AEO94 low world oil price scenario; and immediate increase world oil price scenario.

  9. Application of MELCOR Code to a French PWR 900 MWe Severe Accident Sequence and Evaluation of Models Performance Focusing on In-Vessel Thermal Hydraulic Results

    SciTech Connect

    De Rosa, Felice

    2006-07-01

    In the ambit of the Severe Accident Network of Excellence Project (SARNET), funded by the European Union, 6. FISA (Fission Safety) Programme, one of the main tasks is the development and validation of the European Accident Source Term Evaluation Code (ASTEC Code). One of the reference codes used to compare ASTEC results, coming from experimental and Reactor Plant applications, is MELCOR. ENEA is a SARNET member and also an ASTEC and MELCOR user. During the first 18 months of this project, we performed a series of MELCOR and ASTEC calculations referring to a French PWR 900 MWe and to the accident sequence of 'Loss of Steam Generator (SG) Feedwater' (known as H2 sequence in the French classification). H2 is an accident sequence substantially equivalent to a Station Blackout scenario, like a TMLB accident, with the only difference that in H2 sequence the scram is forced to occur with a delay of 28 seconds. The main events during the accident sequence are a loss of normal and auxiliary SG feedwater (0 s), followed by a scram when the water level in SG is equal or less than 0.7 m (after 28 seconds). There is also a main coolant pumps trip when {delta}Tsat < 10 deg. C, a total opening of the three relief valves when Tric (core maximal outlet temperature) is above 603 K (330 deg. C) and accumulators isolation when primary pressure goes below 1.5 MPa (15 bar). Among many other points, it is worth noting that this was the first time that a MELCOR 1.8.5 input deck was available for a French PWR 900. The main ENEA effort in this period was devoted to prepare the MELCOR input deck using the code version v.1.8.5 (build QZ Oct 2000 with the latest patch 185003 Oct 2001). The input deck, completely new, was prepared taking into account structure, data and same conditions as those found inside ASTEC input decks. The main goal of the work presented in this paper is to put in evidence where and when MELCOR provides good enough results and why, in some cases mainly referring to its

  10. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Other Petroleum Products Consumption Model

    EIA Publications

    2011-01-01

    The other petroleum product consumption module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. consumption forecasts for 6 petroleum product categories: asphalt and road oil, petrochemical feedstocks, petroleum coke, refinery still gas, unfinished oils, and other miscvellaneous products

  11. Structured Hypermedia Application Development Model (SHADM): A structured Model for Technical Documentation Application Design

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-12-01

    Information Resource Management Peter W. Cassell, BBus Flight Lieutenant, RAAF December 1991 Approved for public release; distribution unlimited...understanding none of this would have been possible. ii Table of Contents Page Acknowledgements ........................ ii List of Figures...SHADM Data Sub-Model 43 5. Operational Elements 48 6. Primitive Task Orientation 50 7. Technical Order Publication Hierarchy 73 8. Publication Content

  12. An inverse modeling method to assess the source term of the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident using gamma dose rate observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunier, O.; Mathieu, A.; Didier, D.; Tombette, M.; Quélo, D.; Winiarek, V.; Bocquet, M.

    2013-06-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear accident and more recently the Fukushima accident highlighted that the largest source of error on consequences assessment is the source term including the time evolution of the release rate and its distribution between radioisotopes. Inverse modeling methods, which combine environmental measurements and atmospheric dispersion models, have proven efficient in assessing source term due to an accidental situation (Gudiksen, 1989; Krysta and Bocquet, 2007; Stohl et al., 2012a; Winiarek et al., 2012). Most existing approaches are designed to use air sampling measurements (Winiarek et al., 2012) and some of them also use deposition measurements (Stohl et al., 2012a; Winiarek et al., 2013) but none of them uses dose rate measurements. However, it is the most widespread measurement system, and in the event of a nuclear accident, these data constitute the main source of measurements of the plume and radioactive fallout during releases. This paper proposes a method to use dose rate measurements as part of an inverse modeling approach to assess source terms. The method is proven efficient and reliable when applied to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FD-NPP). The emissions for the eight main isotopes 133Xe, 134Cs, 136Cs, 137Cs, 137mBa, 131I, 132I and 132Te have been assessed. Accordingly, 103 PBq of 131I, 35.5 PBq of 132I, 15.5 PBq of 137Cs and 12 100 PBq of noble gases were released. The events at FD-NPP (such as venting, explosions, etc.) known to have caused atmospheric releases are well identified in the retrieved source term. The estimated source term is validated by comparing simulations of atmospheric dispersion and deposition with environmental observations. The result is that the model-measurement agreement for all of the monitoring locations is correct for 80% of simulated dose rates that are within a factor of 2 of the observed values. Changes in dose rates over time have been overall properly reconstructed, especially

  13. Documentation of INL’s In Situ Oil Shale Retorting Water Usage System Dynamics Model

    SciTech Connect

    Earl D Mattson; Larry Hull

    2012-12-01

    A system dynamic model was construction to evaluate the water balance for in-situ oil shale conversion. The model is based on a systems dynamics approach and uses the Powersim Studio 9™ software package. Three phases of an in situ retort were consider; a construction phase primarily accounts for water needed for drilling and water produced during dewatering, an operation phase includes the production of water from the retorting process, and a remediation phase water to remove heat and solutes from the subsurface as well as return the ground surface to its natural state. Throughout these three phases, the water is consumed and produced. Consumption is account for through the drill process, dust control, returning the ground water to its initial level and make up water losses during the remedial flushing of the retort zone. Production of water is through the dewatering of the retort zone, and during chemical pyrolysis reaction of the kerogen conversion. The document discusses each of the three phases used in the model.

  14. Comparison of perceived and modelled geographical access to accident and emergency departments: a cross-sectional analysis from the Caerphilly Health and Social Needs Study

    PubMed Central

    Fone, David L; Christie, Stephen; Lester, Nathan

    2006-01-01

    Background Assessment of the spatial accessibility of hospital accident and emergency departments as perceived by local residents has not previously been investigated. Perceived accessibility may affect where, when, and whether potential patients attend for treatment. Using data on 11,853 respondents to a population survey in Caerphilly county borough, Wales, UK, we present an analysis comparing the accessibility of accident and emergency departments as reported by local residents and drive-time to the nearest accident and emergency department modelled using a geographical information system (GIS). Results Median drive-times were significantly shorter in the lowest perceived access category and longer in the best perceived access category (p < 0.001). The perceived access and GIS modelled drive-time variables were positively correlated (Spearman's rank correlation coefficient, r = 0.38, p < 0.01). The strongest correlation was found for respondents living in areas in which nearly all households had a car or van (r = 0.47, p < 0.01). Correlations were stronger among respondents reporting good access to public transport and among those reporting a recent accident and emergency attendance for injury treatment compared to other respondents. Correlation coefficients did not vary substantially by levels of household income. Drive-time, road distance and straight-line distance were highly inter-correlated and substituting road distance or straight-line distance as the GIS modelled spatial accessibility measure only marginally decreased the magnitude of the correlations between perceived and GIS modelled access. Conclusion This study provides evidence that the accessibility of hospital-based health care services as perceived by local residents is related to measures of spatial accessibility modelled using GIS. For studies that aim to model geographical separation in a way that correlates well with the perception of local residents, there may be minimal advantage in using

  15. Simulations of the transport and deposition of 137Cs over Europe after the Chernobyl NPP accident: influence of varying emission-altitude and model horizontal and vertical resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Evangeliou, N.; Balkanski, Y.; Cozic, A.; Møller, A. P.

    2013-03-01

    The coupled model LMDzORINCA has been used to simulate the transport, wet and dry deposition of the radioactive tracer 137Cs after accidental releases. For that reason, two horizontal resolutions were deployed and used in the model, a regular grid of 2.5°×1.25°, and the same grid stretched over Europe to reach a resolution of 0.45°×0.51°. The vertical dimension is represented with two different resolutions, 19 and 39 levels, respectively, extending up to mesopause. Four different simulations are presented in this work; the first uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels assuming that the emissions took place at the surface (RG19L(S)), the second also uses the regular grid over 19 vertical levels but realistic source injection heights (RG19L); in the third resolution the grid is regular and the vertical resolution 39 vertical levels (RG39L) and finally, it is extended to the stretched grid with 19 vertical levels (Z19L). The best choice for the model validation was the Chernobyl accident which occurred in Ukraine (ex-USSR) on 26 May 1986. This accident has been widely studied since 1986, and a large database has been created containing measurements of atmospheric activity concentration and total cumulative deposition for 137Cs from most of the European countries. According to the results, the performance of the model to predict the transport and deposition of the radioactive tracer was efficient and accurate presenting low biases in activity concentrations and deposition inventories, despite the large uncertainties on the intensity of the source released. However, the best agreement with observations was obtained using the highest horizontal resolution of the model (Z19L run). The model managed to predict the radioactive contamination in most of the European regions (similar to Atlas), and also the arrival times of the radioactive fallout. As regards to the vertical resolution, the largest biases were obtained for the 39 layers run due to the increase of

  16. Atmospheric releases from severe nuclear accidents: Environmental transport and pathways to man: Modelling of radiation doses to man from Chernobyl releases

    SciTech Connect

    Anspaugh, L.R.; Goldman, M.; Catlin, R.J.

    1987-01-01

    The Chernobyl accident released a large amount of highly fractionated radioactive debris, including approximately 89 PBq of /sup 137/Cs. We calculated the resulting collective dose commitment to the Northern Hemisphere via the pathways of external exposure and ingestion of radionuclides withd food. We developed a rural/urban model of external dose and we used the PATHWAY model for ingestion. The results are a collective dose commitment of 630,000 person-Gy over the first year and 1,200,000 person-Gy over 50 years. 13 refs., 1 tab.

  17. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters. Experts` determination of structural response issues

    SciTech Connect

    Breeding, R.J.; Harper, F.T.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D.; Murfin, W.; Amos, C.N.

    1992-03-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ``so-called`` point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. Much of the important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Structural Response Panel.

  18. SNF fuel retrieval sub project safety analysis document

    SciTech Connect

    BERGMANN, D.W.

    1999-02-24

    This safety analysis is for the SNF Fuel Retrieval (FRS) Sub Project. The FRS equipment will be added to K West and K East Basins to facilitate retrieval, cleaning and repackaging the spent nuclear fuel into Multi-Canister Overpack baskets. The document includes a hazard evaluation, identifies bounding accidents, documents analyses of the accidents and establishes safety class or safety significant equipment to mitigate accidents as needed.

  19. An inverse modeling method to assess the source term of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident using gamma dose rate observations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Saunier, O.; Mathieu, A.; Didier, D.; Tombette, M.; Quélo, D.; Winiarek, V.; Bocquet, M.

    2013-11-01

    The Chernobyl nuclear accident, and more recently the Fukushima accident, highlighted that the largest source of error on consequences assessment is the source term, including the time evolution of the release rate and its distribution between radioisotopes. Inverse modeling methods, which combine environmental measurements and atmospheric dispersion models, have proven efficient in assessing source term due to an accidental situation (Gudiksen, 1989; Krysta and Bocquet, 2007; Stohl et al., 2012a; Winiarek et al., 2012). Most existing approaches are designed to use air sampling measurements (Winiarek et al., 2012) and some of them also use deposition measurements (Stohl et al., 2012a; Winiarek et al., 2014). Some studies have been performed to use dose rate measurements (Duranova et al., 1999; Astrup et al., 2004; Drews et al., 2004; Tsiouri et al., 2012) but none of the developed methods were carried out to assess the complex source term of a real accident situation like the Fukushima accident. However, dose rate measurements are generated by the most widespread measurement system, and in the event of a nuclear accident, these data constitute the main source of measurements of the plume and radioactive fallout during releases. This paper proposes a method to use dose rate measurements as part of an inverse modeling approach to assess source terms. The method is proven efficient and reliable when applied to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FD-NPP). The emissions for the eight main isotopes 133Xe, 134Cs, 136Cs, 137Cs, 137mBa, 131I, 132I and 132Te have been assessed. Accordingly, 105.9 PBq of 131I, 35.8 PBq of 132I, 15.5 PBq of 137Cs and 12 134 PBq of noble gases were released. The events at FD-NPP (such as venting, explosions, etc.) known to have caused atmospheric releases are well identified in the retrieved source term. The estimated source term is validated by comparing simulations of atmospheric dispersion and deposition with

  20. Documenting and Maintaining Native American Languages for the 21st Century: The Indiana University Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parks, Douglas R.; Kushner, Julia; Hooper, Wallace; Flavin, Francis; Yellow Bird, Delilah; Ditmar, Selena

    This document compiles five short papers that describe the history and implementation of the Arikara Language Project and the Nakoda Language Project, the development of computer tools for language documentation, and the creation of curriculum materials for these and other projects. These papers are: "Genesis of the Project" (Douglas R.…

  1. Three occurred debris flows in North-Eastern Italian Alps: documentation and modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boreggio, Mauro; Gregoretti, Carlo; Degetto, Massimo; Bernard, Martino

    2015-04-01

    Three occurred events of debris flows are documented and modeled by back-analysis. The three debris flows events are those occurred at Rio Lazer on the 4th of November 1966, at Fiames on the 5th of July 2006 and at Rovina di Cancia on the 18th of July 2009. All the three sites are located in the North-Eastern Italian Alps. In all the events, runoff entrained sediments present on natural channels and formed a solid-liquid wave that routed downstream. The first event concerns the routing of debris flow on an inhabited fan. Map of deposition pattern of sediments are built by using post-events photos through stereoscopy techniques. The second event concerns the routing of debris flow along the main channel descending from Pomagagnon Fork. Due to the obstruction of the cross-section debris flow deviated from the original path on the left side and routed downstream by cutting a new channel on the fan. It dispersed in multiple paths when met the wooden area. Map of erosion and deposition depths are built after using a combination of Lidar and GPS data. The third event concerns the routing of debris flow in the Rovina di Cancia channel that filled the reservoir built at the end of the channel and locally overtopped the retaining wall on the left side. A wave of mud and debris inundated the area downstream the overtopping point. Map of erosion and deposition depths are obtained by subtracting two GPS surveys, pre and post event. All the three occurred debris flows are simulated by modeling runoff that entrained debris flow for determining the solid-liquid hydrograph downstream the triggering areas. The routing of the solid-liquid hydrograph was simulated by a bi-phase cell model based on the kinematic approach. The comparison between simulated and measured erosion and deposition depths is satisfactory. The same parameters for computing erosion and deposition were used for the three occurred events.

  2. Regional long-term model of radioactivity dispersion and fate in the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas: application to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident.

    PubMed

    Maderich, V; Bezhenar, R; Heling, R; de With, G; Jung, K T; Myoung, J G; Cho, Y-K; Qiao, F; Robertson, L

    2014-05-01

    The compartment model POSEIDON-R was modified and applied to the Northwestern Pacific and adjacent seas to simulate the transport and fate of radioactivity in the period 1945-2010, and to perform a radiological assessment on the releases of radioactivity due to the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident for the period 2011-2040. The model predicts the dispersion of radioactivity in the water column and in sediments, the transfer of radionuclides throughout the marine food web, and subsequent doses to humans due to the consumption of marine products. A generic predictive dynamic food-chain model is used instead of the biological concentration factor (BCF) approach. The radionuclide uptake model for fish has as a central feature the accumulation of radionuclides in the target tissue. The three layer structure of the water column makes it possible to describe the vertical structure of radioactivity in deep waters. In total 175 compartments cover the Northwestern Pacific, the East China and Yellow Seas and the East/Japan Sea. The model was validated from (137)Cs data for the period 1945-2010. Calculated concentrations of (137)Cs in water, bottom sediments and marine organisms in the coastal compartment, before and after the accident, are in close agreement with measurements from the Japanese agencies. The agreement for water is achieved when an additional continuous flux of 3.6 TBq y(-1) is used for underground leakage of contaminated water from the Fukushima Dai-ichi NPP, during the three years following the accident. The dynamic food web model predicts that due to the delay of the transfer throughout the food web, the concentration of (137)Cs for piscivorous fishes returns to background level only in 2016. For the year 2011, the calculated individual dose rate for Fukushima Prefecture due to consumption of fishery products is 3.6 μSv y(-1). Following the Fukushima Dai-ichi accident the collective dose due to ingestion of marine products for Japan increased in 2011 by a

  3. Visualization of Traffic Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wang, Jie; Shen, Yuzhong; Khattak, Asad

    2010-01-01

    Traffic accidents have tremendous impact on society. Annually approximately 6.4 million vehicle accidents are reported by police in the US and nearly half of them result in catastrophic injuries. Visualizations of traffic accidents using geographic information systems (GIS) greatly facilitate handling and analysis of traffic accidents in many aspects. Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), Inc. is the world leader in GIS research and development. ArcGIS, a software package developed by ESRI, has the capabilities to display events associated with a road network, such as accident locations, and pavement quality. But when event locations related to a road network are processed, the existing algorithm used by ArcGIS does not utilize all the information related to the routes of the road network and produces erroneous visualization results of event locations. This software bug causes serious problems for applications in which accurate location information is critical for emergency responses, such as traffic accidents. This paper aims to address this problem and proposes an improved method that utilizes all relevant information of traffic accidents, namely, route number, direction, and mile post, and extracts correct event locations for accurate traffic accident visualization and analysis. The proposed method generates a new shape file for traffic accidents and displays them on top of the existing road network in ArcGIS. Visualization of traffic accidents along Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel is included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  4. Perception of road accident causes.

    PubMed

    Vanlaar, Ward; Yannis, George

    2006-01-01

    A theoretical two-dimensional model on prevalence and risk was developed. The objective of this study was to validate this model empirically to answer three questions: How do European drivers perceive the importance of several causes of road accidents? Are there important differences in perceptions between member states? Do these perceptions reflect the real significance of road accident causes? Data were collected from 23 countries, based on representative national samples of at least 1000 respondents each (n=24,372). Face-to-face interviews with fully licensed, active car drivers were conducted using a questionnaire containing closed answer questions. Respondents were asked to rate 15 causes of road accidents, each using a six-point ordinal scale. The answers were analyzed by calculating Kendall's tau for each pair of items to form lower triangle similarity matrices per country and for Europe as a whole. These matrices were then used as the input files for an individual difference scaling to draw a perceptual map of the 15 items involved. The hypothesized model on risk and prevalence fits the data well and enabled us to answer the three questions of concern. The subject space of the model showed that there are no relevant differences between the 23 countries. The group space of the model comprises four quadrants, each containing several items (high perceived risk/low perceived prevalence items; high perceived risk/high perceived prevalence items; low perceived risk/high perceived prevalence items and low perceived risk/low perceived prevalence items). Finally, perceptions of the items driving under the influence of alcohol, drugs and medicines and driving using a handheld or hands-free mobile phone are discussed with regard to their real significance in causing road accidents. To conclude, individual difference scaling offers some promising possibilities to study drivers' perception of road accident causes.

  5. 3D Documentation and BIM Modeling of Cultural Heritage Structures Using UAVs: The Case of the Foinikaria Church

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Themistocleous, K.; Agapiou, A.; Hadjimitsis, D.

    2016-10-01

    The documentation of architectural cultural heritage sites has traditionally been expensive and labor-intensive. New innovative technologies, such as Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), provide an affordable, reliable and straightforward method of capturing cultural heritage sites, thereby providing a more efficient and sustainable approach to documentation of cultural heritage structures. In this study, hundreds of images of the Panagia Chryseleousa church in Foinikaria, Cyprus were taken using a UAV with an attached high resolution camera. The images were processed to generate an accurate digital 3D model by using Structure in Motion techniques. Building Information Model (BIM) was then used to generate drawings of the church. The methodology described in the paper provides an accurate, simple and cost-effective method of documenting cultural heritage sites and generating digital 3D models using novel techniques and innovative methods.

  6. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal

    SciTech Connect

    Shawn St. Germain; Curtis Smith; David Schwieder; Cherie Phelan

    2012-11-01

    This paper presents a description of The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal. The Information Portal was created by the Idaho National Laboratory as part of joint NRC and DOE project to assess the severe accident modeling capability of the MELCOR analysis code. The Fukushima Daiichi Accident Study Information Portal was created to collect, store, retrieve and validate information and data for use in reconstructing the Fukushima Daiichi accident. In addition to supporting the MELCOR simulations, the Portal will be the main DOE repository for all data, studies and reports related to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. The data is stored in a secured (password protected and encrypted) repository that is searchable and accessible to researchers at diverse locations.

  7. Technical report series on global modeling and data assimilation. Volume 1: Documentation of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model, version 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suarez, Max J. (Editor); Takacs, Lawrence L.; Molod, Andrea; Wang, Tina

    1994-01-01

    This technical report documents Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) General Circulation Model (GCM). The GEOS-1 GCM is being used by NASA's Data Assimilation Office (DAO) to produce multiyear data sets for climate research. This report provides a documentation of the model components used in the GEOS-1 GCM, a complete description of model diagnostics available, and a User's Guide to facilitate GEOS-1 GCM experiments.

  8. Repository preclosure accident scenarios

    SciTech Connect

    Yook, H.R.; Arbital, J.G.; Keeton, J.M.; Mosier, J.E.; Weaver, B.S.

    1984-09-01

    Waste-handling operations at a spent-fuel repository were investigated to identify operational accidents that could occur. The facility was subdivided, through systems engineering procedures, into individual operations that involve the waste and one specific component of the waste package, in one specific area of the handling facility. From this subdivision approximately 600 potential accidents involving waste package components were identified and then discussed. Supporting descriptive data included for each accident scenario are distance of drop, speed of collision, weight of package component, and weight of equipment involved. The energy of impact associated with each potential accident is calculated to provide a basis for comparison of the relative severities of all the accidents. The results and conclusions suggest approaches to accident consequence mitigation through waste package and facility design. 35 figures, 9 tables.

  9. Degraded document image enhancement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Agam, G.; Bal, G.; Frieder, G.; Frieder, O.

    2007-01-01

    Poor quality documents are obtained in various situations such as historical document collections, legal archives, security investigations, and documents found in clandestine locations. Such documents are often scanned for automated analysis, further processing, and archiving. Due to the nature of such documents, degraded document images are often hard to read, have low contrast, and are corrupted by various artifacts. We describe a novel approach for the enhancement of such documents based on probabilistic models which increases the contrast, and thus, readability of such documents under various degradations. The enhancement produced by the proposed approach can be viewed under different viewing conditions if desired. The proposed approach was evaluated qualitatively and compared to standard enhancement techniques on a subset of historical documents obtained from the Yad Vashem Holocaust museum. In addition, quantitative performance was evaluated based on synthetically generated data corrupted under various degradation models. Preliminary results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

  10. DIANA: A multi-phase, multi-component hydrodynamic model for the analysis of severe accidents in heavy water reactors with multiple-tube assemblies

    SciTech Connect

    Tentner, A.M.

    1994-03-01

    A detailed hydrodynamic fuel relocation model has been developed for the analysis of severe accidents in Heavy Water Reactors with multiple-tube Assemblies. This model describes the Fuel Disruption and Relocation inside a nuclear fuel assembly and is designated by the acronym DIANA. DIANA solves the transient hydrodynamic equations for all the moving materials in the core and treats all the relevant flow regimes. The numerical solution techniques and some of the physical models included in DIANA have been developed taking advantage of the extensive experience accumulated in the development and validation of the LEVITATE (1) fuel relocation model of SAS4A [2, 3]. The model is designed to handle the fuel and cladding relocation in both voided and partially voided channels. It is able to treat a wide range of thermal/ hydraulic/neutronic conditions and the presence of various flow regimes at different axial locations within the same hydrodynamic channel.

  11. Laser accidents: Being Prepared

    SciTech Connect

    Barat, K

    2003-01-24

    The goal of the Laser Safety Officer and any laser safety program is to prevent a laser accident from occurring, in particular an injury to a person's eyes. Most laser safety courses talk about laser accidents, causes, and types of injury. The purpose of this presentation is to present a plan for safety offices and users to follow in case of accident or injury from laser radiation.

  12. Digital Rosetta Stone: A Conceptual Model for Maintaining Long-Term Access to Digital Documents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1996-12-01

    of a digital document containing a treasure map depicted by a visual pattern of words and line spaces demonstrates the importance of 9 a document’s...become known as the Rosetta Stone. The Rosetta Stone contained the inscription of a decree issued in 196 BC by Ptolemy V Epiphanes. The decree was...information. Modem database technology makes it simple to build a table that maps the values of a character in one BCS to

  13. [Accidents with the "paraglider"].

    PubMed

    Lang, T H; Dengg, C; Gabl, M

    1988-09-01

    With a collective of 46 patients we show the details and kinds of accidents caused by paragliding. The base for the casuistry of the accidents was a questionnaire which was answered by most of the injured persons. These were questions about the theoretical and practical training, the course of the flight during the different phases, and the subjective point of view of the course of the accident. The patterns of the injuries showed a high incidence of injuries of the spinal column and high risks for the ankles. At the end, we give some advice how to prevent these accidents.

  14. Accident mortality among children

    PubMed Central

    Swaroop, S.; Albrecht, R. M.; Grab, B.

    1956-01-01

    The authors present statistics on mortality from accidents, with special reference to those relating to the age-group 1-19 years. For a number of countries figures are given for the proportional mortality from accidents (the number of accident deaths expressed as a percentage of the number of deaths from all causes) and for the specific death-rates, per 100 000 population, from all causes of death, from selected causes, from all causes of accidents, and from various types of accident. From these figures it appears that, in most countries, accidents are becoming relatively increasingly prominent as a cause of death in childhood, primarily because of the conquest of other causes of death—such as infectious and parasitic diseases, which formerly took a heavy toll of children and adolescents—but also to some extent because the death-rate from motor-vehicle accidents is rising and cancelling out the reduction in the rate for other causes of accidental death. In the authors' opinion, further epidemiological investigations into accident causation are required for the purpose of devising quicker and more effective methods of accident prevention. PMID:13383361

  15. Analysis of Maximum Reasonably Foreseeable Accidents for the Yucca Mountain Draft Environmental Impact Statement (DEIS)

    SciTech Connect

    S.B. Ross; R.E. Best; S.J. Maheras; T.I. McSweeney

    2001-08-17

    Accidents could occur during the transportation of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. This paper describes the risks and consequences to the public from accidents that are highly unlikely but that could have severe consequences. The impact of these accidents would include those to a collective population and to hypothetical maximally exposed individuals (MEIs). This document discusses accidents with conditions that have a chance of occurring more often than 1 in 10 million times in a year, called ''maximum reasonably foreseeable accidents''. Accidents and conditions less likely than this are not considered to be reasonably foreseeable.

  16. Identification and evaluation of PWR in-vessel severe accident management strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Dukelow, J S; Harrison, D G; Morgenstern, M

    1992-03-01

    This reports documents work performed the NRC/RES Accident Management Guidance Program to evaluate possible strategies for mitigating the consequences of PWR severe accidents. The selection and evaluation of strategies was limited to the in-vessel phase of the severe accident, i.e., after the initiation of core degradation and prior to RPV failure. A parallel project at BNL has been considering strategies applicable to the ex-vessel phase of PWR severe accidents.

  17. Accelerator System Model (ASM) user manual with physics and engineering model documentation. ASM version 1.0

    SciTech Connect

    1993-07-01

    The Accelerator System Model (ASM) is a computer program developed to model proton radiofrequency accelerators and to carry out system level trade studies. The ASM FORTRAN subroutines are incorporated into an intuitive graphical user interface which provides for the {open_quotes}construction{close_quotes} of the accelerator in a window on the computer screen. The interface is based on the Shell for Particle Accelerator Related Codes (SPARC) software technology written for the Macintosh operating system in the C programming language. This User Manual describes the operation and use of the ASM application within the SPARC interface. The Appendix provides a detailed description of the physics and engineering models used in ASM. ASM Version 1.0 is joint project of G. H. Gillespie Associates, Inc. and the Accelerator Technology (AT) Division of the Los Alamos National Laboratory. Neither the ASM Version 1.0 software nor this ASM Documentation may be reproduced without the expressed written consent of both the Los Alamos National Laboratory and G. H. Gillespie Associates, Inc.

  18. The CLIMB Geoportal - A web-based dissemination and documentation platform for hydrological modelling data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blaschek, Michael; Gerken, Daniel; Ludwig, Ralf; Duttmann, Rainer

    2015-04-01

    Geoportals are important elements of spatial data infrastructures (SDIs) that are strongly based on GIS-related web services. These services are basically meant for distributing, documenting and visualizing (spatial) data in a standardized manner; an important but challenging task especially in large scientific projects with a high number of data suppliers and producers from various countries. This presentation focuses on introducing the free and open-source based geoportal solution developed within the research project CLIMB (Climate Induced Changes on the Hydrology of Mediterranean Basins, www.climb-fp7.eu) that serves as the central platform for interchanging project-related spatial data and information. In this collaboration, financed by the EU-FP7-framework and coordinated at the LMU Munich, 21 partner institutions from nine European and non-European countries were involved. The CLIMB Geoportal (lgi-climbsrv.geographie.uni-kiel.de) stores and provides spatially distributed data about the current state and future changes of the hydrological conditions within the seven CLIMB test sites around the Mediterranean. Hydrological modelling outcome - validated by the CLIMB partners - is offered to the public in forms of Web Map Services (WMS), whereas downloading the underlying data itself through Web Coverage Services (WCS) is possible for registered users only. A selection of common indicators such as discharge, drought index as well as uncertainty measures including their changes over time were used in different spatial resolution. Besides map information, the portal enables the graphical display of time series of selected variables calculated by the individual models applied within the CLIMB-project. The implementation of the CLIMB Geoportal is finally based on version 2.0c5 of the open source geospatial content management system GeoNode. It includes a GeoServer instance for providing the OGC-compliant web services and comes with a metadata catalog (pycsw) as well

  19. WASP7 Stream Transport - Model Theory and User's Guide: Supplement to Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) User Documentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The standard WASP7 stream transport model calculates water flow through a branching stream network that may include both free-flowing and ponded segments. This supplemental user manual documents the hydraulic algorithms, including the transport and hydrogeometry equations, the m...

  20. Modelo de Alfabetizacion: A Poblacion Urbana y Rural. Documento General (Literacy Model: Urban and Rural Populations. General Document).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Instituto Nacional para la Educacion de los Adultos, Mexico City (Mexico).

    This document describes literacy models for urban and rural populations in Mexico. It contains four sections. The first two sections (generalizations about the population and considerations about the teaching of adults) discuss the environment that creates illiterate adults and also describe some of the conditions under which learning takes place…

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Macro Bridge Procedure to Update Regional Macroeconomic Forecasts with National Macroeconomic Forecasts

    EIA Publications

    2010-01-01

    The Regional Short-Term Energy Model (RSTEM) uses macroeconomic variables such as income, employment, industrial production and consumer prices at both the national and regional1 levels as explanatory variables in the generation of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). This documentation explains how national macroeconomic forecasts are used to update regional macroeconomic forecasts through the RSTEM Macro Bridge procedure.

  2. Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Volume Four

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gehmann, H. W.; Barry, J. L.; Deal, D. W.; Hallock, J. N.; Hess, K. W.

    2003-01-01

    This is Volume Four of a set of six reports produced by NASA and other organizations which were provided to the Columbia Accident Investigation Board (CAIB) in support of its inquiry into the February 1, 2003 destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. The Technical Documents included in this volume are: Appendix F.1 Water Absorption by Foam; Appendix F.2 Follow the TPS; Appendix F.3 MADS Sensor Data; Appendix F.4 ET Cryoinsulation; Appendix F.5 Space Shuttle STS-107 Columbia Accident Investigation, and External Tank Working Group Final Report - Volume 1.

  3. Do cognitive models help in predicting the severity of posttraumatic stress disorder, phobia, and depression after motor vehicle accidents? A prospective longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

    2008-04-01

    The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM-IV. Predictors included initial symptom severities; variables established as predictors of PTSD in E. J. Ozer, S. R. Best, T. L. Lipsey, and D. S. Weiss's (2003) meta-analysis; and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia, and depression. Results of nonparametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma.

  4. Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression After Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

    PubMed Central

    Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

    2008-01-01

    The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months later. Diagnoses were established with the Structured Clinical Interview for DSM–IV. Predictors included initial symptom severities; variables established as predictors of PTSD in E. J. Ozer, S. R. Best, T. L. Lipsey, and D. S. Weiss's (2003) meta-analysis; and variables derived from cognitive models of PTSD, phobia, and depression. Results of nonparametric multiple regression analyses showed that the cognitive variables predicted subsequent PTSD and depression severities over and above what could be predicted from initial symptom levels. They also showed greater predictive power than the established predictors, although the latter showed similar effect sizes as in the meta-analysis. In addition, the predictors derived from cognitive models of PTSD and depression were disorder-specific. The results support the role of cognitive factors in the maintenance of emotional disorders following trauma. PMID:18377119

  5. Documents and Civic Duties

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Potter, Lee Ann

    2005-01-01

    All of the documents featured in this article come from the holdings of the National Archives and Records Administration. Primary source documents illustrate what is meant by responsible citizenship. The people who create documents as well as those who are featured in them can serve as models of civic behavior--both appropriate and…

  6. MELCOR analysis of the TMI-2 accident

    SciTech Connect

    Boucheron, E.A.

    1990-01-01

    This paper describes the analysis of the Three Mile Island-2 (TMI-2) standard problem that was performed with MELCOR. The MELCOR computer code is being developed by Sandia National Laboratories for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the purpose of analyzing severe accident in nuclear power plants. The primary role of MELCOR is to provide realistic predictions of severe accident phenomena and the radiological source team. The analysis of the TMI-2 standard problem allowed for comparison of the model predictions in MELCOR to plant data and to the results of more mechanistic analyses. This exercise was, therefore valuable for verifying and assessing the models in the code. The major trends in the TMI-2 accident are reasonably well predicted with MELCOR, even with its simplified modeling. Comparison of the calculated and measured results is presented and, based on this comparison, conclusions can be drawn concerning the applicability of MELCOR to severe accident analysis. 5 refs., 10 figs., 3 tabs.

  7. Parametric Modelling (bim) for the Documentation of Vernacular Construction Methods: a Bim Model for the Commissariat Building, Ottawa, Canada

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fai, S.; Filippi, M.; Paliaga, S.

    2013-07-01

    Whether a house of worship or a simple farmhouse, the fabrication of a building reveals both the unspoken cultural aspirations of the builder and the inevitable exigencies of the construction process. In other-words, why buildings are made is intimately and inevitably associated with how buildings are made. Nowhere is this more evident than in vernacular architecture. At the Carleton Immersive Media Studio (CIMS) we are concerned that the de-population of Canada's rural areas, paucity of specialized tradespersons, and increasing complexity of building codes threaten the sustainability of this invaluable cultural resource. For current and future generations, the quantitative and qualitative values of traditional methods of construction are essential for an inclusive cultural memory. More practically, and equally pressing, an operational knowledge of these technologies is essential for the conservation of our built heritage. To address these concerns, CIMS has launched a number of research initiatives over the past five years that explore novel protocols for the documentation and dissemination of knowledge related to traditional methods of construction. Our current project, Cultural Diversity and Material Imagination in Canadian Architecture (CDMICA), made possible through funding from Canada's Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), explores the potential of building information modelling (BIM) within the context of a web-based environment. In this paper, we discuss our work-to-date on the development of a web-based library of BIM details that is referenced to ''typical'' assemblies culled from 19C and early 20C construction manuals. The parametric potential of these ''typical'' details is further refined by evidence from the documentation of ''specific'' details studied during comprehensive surveys of extant heritage buildings. Here, we consider a BIM of the roof truss assembly of one of the oldest buildings in Canada's national

  8. Documentation for a Two-Level Dynamic Thermodynamic Sea Ice Model.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1980-02-01

    DOCUMENTATION FOR A TWO-LEVEL DYNAMIC THERMODYNAMIC SEA ICE MO--ETCfU) UNCLASSIFIED CRREL-SR-80-8 NL La mIuIIIuuuhuumEllElllllEEEE EIIIIIIIIEI 3 6...ISTRUCTIONSREPORT DOCUMENTATION PAEBEFORE COMPLETIG FORM AREPORT NUMBER 2. GOVT ACCESSION NO. 3 . RECIPIENT’S CATALOG NUMBER LE (IM7711"W5. TYPE OF REPORT & PERIOD...AND ADDRESS ----- Office of Naval Research F Washington, D.C. 20360C/ National Aeronautics and Space Administration 3 Washington, D.C. 20546

  9. Ecosystem model-based approach for modelling the dynamics of 137Cs transfer to marine plankton populations: application to the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Belharet, M.; Estournel, C.; Charmasson, S.

    2015-06-01

    Huge amounts of radionuclides, especially 137Cs, were released into the western North Pacific Ocean after the Fukushima nuclear power plant (FNPP) accident that occurred on 11 March 2011, resulting in contamination of the marine biota. In this study we developed a radioecological model to estimate 137Cs concentrations in phytoplankton and zooplankton populations representing the lower levels of the pelagic trophic chain. We coupled this model to a lower trophic level ecosystem model and an ocean circulation model to take into account the site-specific environmental conditions in the area. The different radioecological parameters of the model were estimated by calibration, and a sensitivity analysis to parameter uncertainties was carried out, showing a high sensitivity of the model results, especially to the 137Cs concentration in seawater, to the rates of uptake from water and to the radionuclide assimilation efficiency for zooplankton. The results of the 137Cs concentrations in planktonic populations simulated in this study were then validated through comparison with the some data available in the region after the accident. The model results have shown that the maximum concentrations in plankton after the accident were about two to four orders of magnitude higher than those observed before the accident depending on the distance from FNPP. Finally, the maximum 137Cs absorbed dose rate for phyto- and zooplankton populations was estimated to be about 10-2 μGy h-1, and was, therefore, lower than the 10 μGy h-1 benchmark value defined in the ERICA assessment approach from which a measurable effect on the marine biota can be observed.

  10. Modelling of Operative Report Documents for Data Integration into an openEHR-Based Enterprise Data Warehouse.

    PubMed

    Haarbrandt, Birger; Wilschko, Andreas; Marschollek, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In order to integrate operative report documents from two operating room management systems into a data warehouse, we investigated the application of the two-level modelling approach of openEHR to create a shared data model. Based on the systems' analyses, a template consisting of 13 archetypes has been developed. Of these 13 archetypes, 3 have been obtained from the international archetype repository of the openEHR foundation. The remaining 10 archetypes have been newly created. The template was evaluated by an application system expert and through conducting a first test mapping of real-world data from one of the systems. The evaluation showed that by using the two-level modelling approach of openEHR, we succeeded to represent an integrated and shared information model for operative report documents. More research is needed to learn about the limitations of this approach in other data integration scenarios.

  11. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    equipment vulnerability models linking the natural-hazard severity to the observed damage almost impossible. As a consequence, the European Commission has set up the eNATECH database for the systematic collection of Natech accident data and near misses. The database exhibits the more sophisticated accident representation required to capture the characteristics of Natech events and is publicly accessible at http://enatech.jrc.ec.europa.eu. This presentation outlines the general lessons-learning process, introduces the eNATECH database and its specific structure, and discusses natural-hazard specific lessons learned and features common to Natech accidents triggered by different natural hazards.

  12. Documentation of the GLAS fourth order general calculation model. Volume 3: Vectorized code for the Cyber 205

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kalnay, E.; Balgovind, R.; Chao, W.; Edelmann, D.; Pfaendtner, J.; Takacs, L.; Takano, K.

    1983-01-01

    Volume 3 of a 3-volume technical memoranda which contains documentation of the GLAS fourth order genera circulation model is presented. The volume contains the CYBER 205 scalar and vector codes of the model, list of variables, and cross references. A dictionary of FORTRAN variables used in the Scalar Version, and listings of the FORTRAN Code compiled with the C-option, are included. Cross reference maps of local variables are included for each subroutine.

  13. Database Technology Activities and Assessment for Defense Modeling and Simulation Office (DMSO) (August 1991-November 1992). A Documented Briefing

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1994-01-01

    using IDEFIX methodology is currently under development; and (3) future plans call for development of a schema for a directory/catalog of models and...FIPS) for IDEFO and IDEFIX methodologies based on the original Air Force documents. These are expected to be published in the Federal Register by first...elements (attributes of the entities). NIST has established draft standards for IDEFO, business process or functional modeling methodology, and IDEFIX

  14. Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Torn, M. S.; Koven, C. D.; Riley, W. J.; Zhu, B.; Hicks Pries, C.; Phillips, C. L.

    2014-12-01

    A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The

  15. Behaviour of oceanic 137Cs following the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident for four years simulated numerically by a regional ocean model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsumune, D.; Tsubono, T.; Aoyama, M.; Misumi, K.; Tateda, Y.

    2015-12-01

    A series of accidents at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant (1F NPP) following the earthquake and tsunami of 11 March 2011 resulted in the release of radioactive materials to the ocean by two major pathways, direct release from the accident site and atmospheric deposition.We reconstructed spatiotemporal variability of 137Cs activity in the regional ocean for four years by numerical model, such as a regional scale and the North Pacific scale oceanic dispersion models, an atmospheric transport model, a sediment transport model, a dynamic biological compartment model for marine biota and river runoff model. Direct release rate of 137Cs were estimated for four years after the accident by comparing simulated results and observed activities very close to the site. The estimated total amounts of directly release was 3.6±0.7 PBq. Directly release rate of 137Cs decreased exponentially with time by the end of December 2012 and then, was almost constant. Decrease rate were quite small after 2013. The daily release rate of 137Cs was estimated to be the order of magnitude of 1010 Bq/day by the end of March 2015. The activity of directly released 137Cs was detectable only in the coastal zone after December 2012. Simulated 137Cs activities attributable to direct release were in good agreement with observed activities, a result that implies the estimated direct release rate was reasonable. There is no observed data of 137Cs activity in the ocean from 11 to 21 March 2011. Observed data of marine biota should reflect the history of 137Cs activity in this early period. We reconstructed the history of 137Cs activity in this early period by considering atmospheric deposition, river input, rain water runoff from the 1F NPP site. The comparisons between simulated 137Cs activity of marine biota by a dynamic biological compartment and observed data also suggest that simulated 137Cs activity attributable to atmospheric deposition was underestimated in this early period. The

  16. Beyond the Ancestral Code: Towards a Model for Sociolinguistic Language Documentation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Childs, Tucker; Good, Jeff; Mitchell, Alice

    2014-01-01

    Most language documentation efforts focus on capturing lexico-grammatical information on individual languages. Comparatively little effort has been devoted to considering a language's sociolinguistic contexts. In parts of the world characterized by high degrees of multilingualism, questions surrounding the factors involved in language choice and…

  17. [Accidents and injuries at work].

    PubMed

    Standke, W

    2014-06-01

    In the case of an accident at work, the person concerned is insured by law according to the guidelines of the Sozialgesetzbuch VII as far as the injuries have been caused by this accident. The most important source of information on the incident in question is the accident report that has to be sent to the responsible institution for statutory accident insurance and prevention by the employer, if the accident of the injured person is fatal or leads to an incapacity to work for more than 3 days (= reportable accident). Data concerning accidents like these are sent to the Deutsche Gesetzliche Unfallversicherung (DGUV) as part of a random sample survey by the institutions for statutory accident insurance and prevention and are analyzed statistically. Thus the key issues of accidents can be established and used for effective prevention. Although the success of effective accident prevention is undisputed, there were still 919,025 occupational accidents in 2011, with clear gender-related differences. Most occupational accidents involve the upper and lower extremities. Accidents are analyzed comprehensively and the results are published and made available to all interested parties in an effort to improve public awareness of possible accidents. Apart from reportable accidents, data on the new occupational accident pensions are also gathered and analyzed statistically. Thus, additional information is gained on accidents with extremely serious consequences and partly permanent injuries for the accident victims.

  18. A System for Automated Extraction of Metadata from Scanned Documents using Layout Recognition and String Pattern Search Models.

    PubMed

    Misra, Dharitri; Chen, Siyuan; Thoma, George R

    2009-01-01

    One of the most expensive aspects of archiving digital documents is the manual acquisition of context-sensitive metadata useful for the subsequent discovery of, and access to, the archived items. For certain types of textual documents, such as journal articles, pamphlets, official government records, etc., where the metadata is contained within the body of the documents, a cost effective method is to identify and extract the metadata in an automated way, applying machine learning and string pattern search techniques.At the U. S. National Library of Medicine (NLM) we have developed an automated metadata extraction (AME) system that employs layout classification and recognition models with a metadata pattern search model for a text corpus with structured or semi-structured information. A combination of Support Vector Machine and Hidden Markov Model is used to create the layout recognition models from a training set of the corpus, following which a rule-based metadata search model is used to extract the embedded metadata by analyzing the string patterns within and surrounding each field in the recognized layouts.In this paper, we describe the design of our AME system, with focus on the metadata search model. We present the extraction results for a historic collection from the Food and Drug Administration, and outline how the system may be adapted for similar collections. Finally, we discuss some ongoing enhancements to our AME system.

  19. APT Blanket System Loss-of-Helium-Gas Accident Based on Initial Conceptual Design - Helium Supply Rupture into Blanket Module

    SciTech Connect

    Hamm, L.L.

    1998-10-07

    The model results are used to determine if beam power shutdown is necessary (or not) as a result of the LOHGA accident to maintain the blanket system well below any of the thermal-hydraulic constraints imposed on the design. The results also provide boundary conditions to the detailed bin model to study the detailed temperature response of the hot blanket module structure. The results for these two cases are documented in the report.

  20. Revised Emergency Cooling System LOCA (loss-of-coolant accidents) limits for PKL-reactor Mark 16B-31 charges

    SciTech Connect

    Church, J.P.; Steimke, J.L.

    1986-10-02

    Recent experiments have shown that the assembly damage models used to compute generic Emergency Cooling System (ECS) limits for loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCA) in Mark 16B-31 charges may be nonconservative. The bases of these damage models were experiments that underestimated the heat input into a heated flow channel. This document provides interim ECS limits for Mark 16, Mark 31A, and Mark 31B assemblies. 2 refs., 1 tab.

  1. Assessment of CRBR core disruptive accident energetics

    SciTech Connect

    Theofanous, T.G.; Bell, C.R.

    1984-03-01

    The results of an independent assessment of core disruptive accident energetics for the Clinch River Breeder Reactor are presented in this document. This assessment was performed for the Nuclear Regulatory Commission under the direction of the CRBR Program Office within the Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation. It considered in detail the accident behavior for three accident initiators that are representative of three different classes of events; unprotected loss of flow, unprotected reactivity insertion, and protected loss of heat sink. The primary system's energetics accommodation capability was realistically, yet conservatively, determined in terms of core events. This accommodation capability was found to be equivalent to an isentropic work potential for expansion to one atmosphere of 2550 MJ or a ramp rate of about 200 $/s applied to a classical two-phase disassembly.

  2. Predicting road accidents: Structural time series approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junus, Noor Wahida Md; Ismail, Mohd Tahir

    2014-07-01

    In this paper, the model for occurrence of road accidents in Malaysia between the years of 1970 to 2010 was developed and throughout this model the number of road accidents have been predicted by using the structural time series approach. The models are developed by using stepwise method and the residual of each step has been analyzed. The accuracy of the model is analyzed by using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and the best model is chosen based on the smallest Akaike information criterion (AIC) value. A structural time series approach found that local linear trend model is the best model to represent the road accidents. This model allows level and slope component to be varied over time. In addition, this approach also provides useful information on improving the conventional time series method.

  3. Practical approaches in accident analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stock, M.

    An accident analysis technique based on successive application of structural response, explosion dynamics, gas cloud formation, and plant operation failure mode models is proposed. The method takes into account the nonideal explosion characteristic of a deflagration in the unconfined cloud. The resulting pressure wave differs significantly from a shock wave and the response of structures like lamp posts and walls can differ correspondingly. This gives a more realistic insight into explosion courses than a simple TNT-equivalent approach.

  4. Licensing topical report: the measurement and modelling of time-dependent fission product release from failed HTGR fuel particles under accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Myers, B.F.; Morrissey, R.E.

    1980-04-01

    The release of fission products from failed fuel particles was measured under simulated accident (core heatup) conditions. A generic model and specific model parameters that describe delayed fission product release from the kernels of failed HTGR fuel particles were developed from the experimental results. The release of fission products was measured from laser-failed BISO ThO/sub 2/ and highly enriched (HEU) TRISO UC/sub 2/ particles that had been irradiated to a range of kernel burnups. The burnups were 0.25, 1.4, and 15.7% FIMA for ThO/sub 2/ particles and 23.5 and 74% FIMA for UC/sub 2/ particles. The fission products measured were nuclides of xenon, iodine, krypton, tellurium, and cesium.

  5. Health effects models for nuclear power plant accident consequence analysis. Modification of models resulting from addition of effects of exposure to alpha-emitting radionuclides: Revision 1, Part 2, Scientific bases for health effects models, Addendum 2

    SciTech Connect

    Abrahamson, S.; Bender, M.A.; Boecker, B.B.; Scott, B.R.; Gilbert, E.S.

    1993-05-01

    The Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has sponsored several studies to identify and quantify, through the use of models, the potential health effects of accidental releases of radionuclides from nuclear power plants. The Reactor Safety Study provided the basis for most of the earlier estimates related to these health effects. Subsequent efforts by NRC-supported groups resulted in improved health effects models that were published in the report entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Consequence Analysis{close_quotes}, NUREG/CR-4214, 1985 and revised further in the 1989 report NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2. The health effects models presented in the 1989 NUREG/CR-4214 report were developed for exposure to low-linear energy transfer (LET) (beta and gamma) radiation based on the best scientific information available at that time. Since the 1989 report was published, two addenda to that report have been prepared to (1) incorporate other scientific information related to low-LET health effects models and (2) extend the models to consider the possible health consequences of the addition of alpha-emitting radionuclides to the exposure source term. The first addendum report, entitled {open_quotes}Health Effects Models for Nuclear Power Plant Accident Consequence Analysis, Modifications of Models Resulting from Recent Reports on Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation, Low LET Radiation, Part 2: Scientific Bases for Health Effects Models,{close_quotes} was published in 1991 as NUREG/CR-4214, Rev. 1, Part 2, Addendum 1. This second addendum addresses the possibility that some fraction of the accident source term from an operating nuclear power plant comprises alpha-emitting radionuclides. Consideration of chronic high-LET exposure from alpha radiation as well as acute and chronic exposure to low-LET beta and gamma radiations is a reasonable extension of the health effects model.

  6. Bayes classifiers for imbalanced traffic accidents datasets.

    PubMed

    Mujalli, Randa Oqab; López, Griselda; Garach, Laura

    2016-03-01

    Traffic accidents data sets are usually imbalanced, where the number of instances classified under the killed or severe injuries class (minority) is much lower than those classified under the slight injuries class (majority). This, however, supposes a challenging problem for classification algorithms and may cause obtaining a model that well cover the slight injuries instances whereas the killed or severe injuries instances are misclassified frequently. Based on traffic accidents data collected on urban and suburban roads in Jordan for three years (2009-2011); three different data balancing techniques were used: under-sampling which removes some instances of the majority class, oversampling which creates new instances of the minority class and a mix technique that combines both. In addition, different Bayes classifiers were compared for the different imbalanced and balanced data sets: Averaged One-Dependence Estimators, Weightily Average One-Dependence Estimators, and Bayesian networks in order to identify factors that affect the severity of an accident. The results indicated that using the balanced data sets, especially those created using oversampling techniques, with Bayesian networks improved classifying a traffic accident according to its severity and reduced the misclassification of killed and severe injuries instances. On the other hand, the following variables were found to contribute to the occurrence of a killed causality or a severe injury in a traffic accident: number of vehicles involved, accident pattern, number of directions, accident type, lighting, surface condition, and speed limit. This work, to the knowledge of the authors, is the first that aims at analyzing historical data records for traffic accidents occurring in Jordan and the first to apply balancing techniques to analyze injury severity of traffic accidents.

  7. NASA Medical Response to Human Spacecraft Accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patlach, Robert

    2011-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews NASA's role in the response to spacecraft accidents that involve human fatalities or injuries. Particular attention is given to the work of the Mishap Investigation Team (MIT), the first response to the accidents and the interface to the accident investigation board. The MIT does not investigate the accident, but the objective of the MIT is to gather, guard, preserve and document the evidence. The primary medical objectives of the MIT is to receive, analyze, identify, and transport human remains, provide assistance in the recovery effort, and to provide family Casualty Coordinators with latest recovery information. The MIT while it does not determine the cause of the accident, it acts as the fact gathering arm of the Mishap Investigation Board (MIB), which when it is activated may chose to continue to use the MIT as its field investigation resource. The MIT membership and the specific responsibilities and tasks of the flight surgeon is reviewed. The current law establishing the process is also reviewed.

  8. Documentation of a finite-element two-layer model for simulation of ground-water flow

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mallory, Michael J.

    1979-01-01

    This report documents a finite-element model for simulation of ground-water flow in a two-aquifer system where the two aquifers are coupled by a leakage term that represents flow through a confining layer separating the two aquifers. The model was developed by Timothy J. Durbin (U.S. Geological Survey) for use in ground-water investigations in southern California. The documentation assumes that the reader is familiar with the physics of ground-water flow, numerical methods of solving partial-differential equations, and the FORTRAN IV computer language. It was prepared as part of the investigations made by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District. (Kosco-USGS)

  9. JMA's regional atmospheric transport model calculations for the WMO technical task team on meteorological analyses for Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Saito, Kazuo; Shimbori, Toshiki; Draxler, Roland

    2015-01-01

    The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) convened a small technical task team of experts to produce a set of meteorological analyses to drive atmospheric transport, dispersion and deposition models (ATDMs) for the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation's assessment of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (DNPP) accident. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) collaborated with the WMO task team as the regional specialized meteorological center of the country where the accident occurred, and provided its operational 5-km resolution mesoscale (MESO) analysis and its 1-km resolution radar/rain gauge-analyzed precipitation (RAP) data. The JMA's mesoscale tracer transport model was modified to a regional ATDM for radionuclides (RATM), which included newly implemented algorithms for dry deposition, wet scavenging, and gravitational settling of radionuclide aerosol particles. Preliminary and revised calculations of the JMA-RATM were conducted according to the task team's protocol. Verification against Cesium 137 ((137)Cs) deposition measurements and observed air concentration time series showed that the performance of RATM with MESO data was significantly improved by the revisions to the model. The use of RAP data improved the (137)Cs deposition pattern but not the time series of air concentrations at Tokai-mura compared with calculations just using the MESO data. Sensitivity tests of some of the more uncertain parameters were conducted to determine their impacts on ATDM calculations, and the dispersion and deposition of radionuclides on 15 March 2011, the period of some of the largest emissions and deposition to the land areas of Japan. The area with high deposition in the northwest of Fukushima DNPP and the hotspot in the central part of Fukushima prefecture were primarily formed by wet scavenging influenced by the orographic effect of the mountainous area in the west of the Fukushima prefecture.

  10. MODFLOW-2000, The U.S. Geological Survey Modular Ground-Water Model -- GMG Linear Equation Solver Package Documentation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, John D.; Naff, Richard L.

    2004-01-01

    A geometric multigrid solver (GMG), based in the preconditioned conjugate gradient algorithm, has been developed for solving systems of equations resulting from applying the cell-centered finite difference algorithm to flow in porous media. This solver has been adapted to the U.S. Geological Survey ground-water flow model MODFLOW-2000. The documentation herein is a description of the solver and the adaptation to MODFLOW-2000.

  11. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Andersen, John A.; Cole, James K.

    1980-01-01

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  12. Accident resistant transport container

    DOEpatents

    Anderson, J.A.; Cole, K.K.

    The invention relates to a container for the safe air transport of plutonium having several intermediate wood layers and a load spreader intermediate an inner container and an outer shell for mitigation of shock during a hypothetical accident.

  13. Residential Demand Module - NEMS Documentation

    EIA Publications

    2014-01-01

    Model Documentation - Documents the objectives, analytical approach, and development of the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) Residential Sector Demand Module. The report catalogues and describes the model assumptions, computational methodology, parameter estimation techniques, and FORTRAN source code.

  14. Termination Documentation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Duncan, Mike; Hill, Jillian

    2014-01-01

    In this study, we examined 11 workplaces to determine how they handle termination documentation, an empirically unexplored area in technical communication and rhetoric. We found that the use of termination documentation is context dependent while following a basic pattern of infraction, investigation, intervention, and termination. Furthermore,…

  15. Declassified Documents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brown, Karen M.

    Journalists and other investigators are daily using declassified government documents to shed light on historical and current events, but few have discovered how to tap the wealth of documents once classified but now in the public realm. An executive order from President Reagan eliminating declassification procedures and allowing released…

  16. The Analytical Repository Source-Term (AREST) model: Description and documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Liebetrau, A.M.; Apted, M.J.; Engel, D.W.; Altenhofen, M.K.; Strachan, D.M.; Reid, C.R.; Windisch, C.F.; Erikson, R.L.; Johnson, K.I.

    1987-10-01

    The geologic repository system consists of several components, one of which is the engineered barrier system. The engineered barrier system interfaces with natural barriers that constitute the setting of the repository. A model that simulates the releases from the engineered barrier system into the natural barriers of the geosphere, called a source-term model, is an important component of any model for assessing the overall performance of the geologic repository system. The Analytical Repository Source-Term (AREST) model being developed is one such model. This report describes the current state of development of the AREST model and the code in which the model is implemented. The AREST model consists of three component models and five process models that describe the post-emplacement environment of a waste package. All of these components are combined within a probabilistic framework. The component models are a waste package containment (WPC) model that simulates the corrosion and degradation processes which eventually result in waste package containment failure; a waste package release (WPR) model that calculates the rates of radionuclide release from the failed waste package; and an engineered system release (ESR) model that controls the flow of information among all AREST components and process models and combines release output from the WPR model with failure times from the WPC model to produce estimates of total release. 167 refs., 40 figs., 12 tabs.

  17. FY-13 FCRD Milestone M3FT-13OR0202311 Weldability of ORNL Accident Tolerant Fuel Cladding Model Alloys For Thin Walled Tubes

    SciTech Connect

    Field, Kevin G; Gussev, Maxim N; Yamamoto, Yukinori

    2013-07-01

    Ferritic FeCrAl-based alloys show increased oxidation resistance for accident tolerant applications as fuel cladding. This study focuses on investigating the weldability of three model FeCrAl alloys with varying alloy compositions using laser-welding techniques. A detailed study of the mechanical properties of bead-on-plate welds was used to determine the quality of welds as a function of alloy composition. Laser welding resulted in defect free welds devoid of cracking or inclusions. Initial results indicate a reduction in the yield strength of weldments compared to the base material due to distinct changes in the microstructure within the fusion zone. Although a loss of yield strength was observed, there was no significant difference in the magnitude of the tensile property changes with varying Cr or Al content. Also, there was no evidence of embrittlement; the material in the fusion zones demonstrated ductile behavior with high local ductility.

  18. Theoretical Perspectives on Learning for the Prevention of Fishing Vessel Accidents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boshier, Roger

    2000-01-01

    Outlines a theoretical model for accident prevention education that includes four paradigms: humanism, radical humanism, functionalism, and radical functionalism. Applies the model to fishing boat accidents and derives implications for changing the content and processes of prevention education. (SK)

  19. Manned space flight nuclear system safety. Volume 3: Reactor system preliminary nuclear safety analysis. Part 2A: Accident model document, appendix

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1972-01-01

    The detailed abort sequence trees for the reference zirconium hydride (ZrH) reactor power module that have been generated for each phase of the reference Space Base program mission are presented. The trees are graphical representations of causal sequences. Each tree begins with the phase identification and the dichotomy between success and failure. The success branch shows the mission phase objective as being achieved. The failure branch is subdivided, as conditions require, into various primary initiating abort conditions.

  20. A new tool for sharing and querying of clinical documents modeled using HL7 Version 3 standard.

    PubMed

    Slavov, Vasil; Rao, Praveen; Paturi, Srivenu; Swami, Tivakar Komara; Barnes, Michael; Rao, Deepthi; Palvai, Raghuvarun

    2013-12-01

    We present a new software tool called CDN (Collaborative Data Network) for sharing and querying of clinical documents modeled using HL7 v3 standard (e.g., Clinical Document Architecture (CDA), Continuity of Care Document (CCD)). Similar to the caBIG initiative, CDN aims to foster innovations in cancer treatment and diagnosis through large-scale, sharing of clinical data. We focus on cancer because it is the second leading cause of deaths in the US. CDN is based on the synergistic combination of peer-to-peer technology and the extensible markup language XML and XQuery. Using CDN, a user can pose both structured queries and keyword queries on the HL7 v3 documents hosted by data providers. CDN is unique in its design--it supports location oblivious queries in a large-scale, network wherein a user does not explicitly provide the location of the data for a query. A location service in CDN discovers data of interest in the network at query time. CDN uses standard cryptographic techniques to provide security to data providers and protect the privacy of patients. Using CDN, a user can pose clinical queries pertaining to cancer containing aggregations and joins across data hosted by multiple data providers. CDN is implemented with open-source software for web application development and XML query processing. We ran CDN in a distributed environment using Amazon EC2 as a testbed. We report its performance on real and synthetic datasets of discharge summaries. We show that CDN can achieve good performance in a setup with large number of data providers and documents.

  1. Circadian alertness simulator for fatigue risk assessment in transportation: application to reduce frequency and severity of truck accidents.

    PubMed

    Moore-Ede, Martin; Heitmann, Anneke; Guttkuhn, Rainer; Trutschel, Udo; Aguirre, Acacia; Croke, Dean

    2004-03-01

    The Circadian Alertness Simulator (CAS) was developed as a practical tool for assessing the risk of diminished alertness at work. Applications of CAS include assessment of operational fatigue risk, work schedule optimization, and fatigue-related accident investigation. Based on the documented work schedules of employees, sleep and alertness patterns are estimated and a cumulative fatigue score is calculated. The risk assessment algorithms are based on physiological sleep/wake principles including homeostatic and circadian processes. The free parameters of the algorithms were optimized using over 10,000 d of sleep and alertness data sets collected from transportation workers performing their regular jobs. The validity and applicability of the CAS fatigue score was then tested using work/rest and accident data from three trucking operations. Heavy truck drivers involved in DOT-recordable or high-cost accidents were found to have significantly higher CAS fatigue risk scores than accident-free drivers. Implementing a risk-informed, performance-based safety program in a 500 power-unit trucking fleet, where dispatchers and managers were held accountable for minimizing driver CAS fatigue risk scores, significantly reduced the frequency and severity of truck accidents. Further examination of CAS risk assessment validity using scenarios provided in a fatigue modeling workshop indicated that the CAS Model also performed well in estimating alertness with a real-world transportation scenario of railroad locomotive engineer work/rest patterns.

  2. Estimating transport fatality risk from past accident data.

    PubMed

    Evans, Andrew W

    2003-07-01

    This paper examines the statistical properties of estimates of fatal accident rates, mean fatalities per accident, and fatality rates when these estimates are based on past accident data. The statistical properties are illustrated by two long-term transport fatal accident datasets from Great Britain, the principal one for railways and the other for roads, chosen to provide a statistical contrast. In both modes, the accident rates have fallen substantially over the long term. Two statistical estimates of current accident and fatality rates are presented for each dataset, one based only on recent data and the other based on estimates of long-term trends. The trend-based estimate is preferred for train accidents because this makes maximum use of the limited and variable data; the recent data are preferred for road accidents because this avoids unnecessary dependence on modelling the trends. For train accidents, the estimated fatality rate based on past accidents is compared with an estimate produced by the railway industry using a risk model. The statistical estimate is less than half the industry's estimate, and the paper concludes that the statistical estimate is to be preferred.

  3. The effect of roundabout design features on cyclist accident rate.

    PubMed

    Hels, Tove; Orozova-Bekkevold, Ivanka

    2007-03-01

    Roundabouts are known to result in fewer traffic accidents than traditional intersections. However, this is to a lesser degree true for bicycles than for vehicles. In this paper, we aimed at establishing statistical relationships through Poisson regression and logistic regression analyses between yearly rate of cyclist accidents on one hand and roundabout geometry, age and traffic volume (vehicles and cyclists) on the other. We related all roundabout cyclist accidents recorded by the hospital emergency department of the town of Odense, Denmark, through the years 1999-2003 (N=171) to various geometric features, age and traffic volume of all roundabouts on the Danish island of Funen (N=88). Cyclist and vehicle volumes turned out to be significant predictors in most of our models-the higher the volumes, the more accidents. Moreover, potential vehicle speed was a significant predictor, and so was age of the roundabout-older roundabouts related to more accidents and higher accident probability. Excluding 48 single cyclist accidents strengthened the relationship between accidents on one hand and vehicle and cyclist volume and potential vehicle speed on the other. This stresses the significance of speed and traffic volume for traffic accidents with more than one partner involved. The 48 single cyclist accidents were significantly related to the traffic volume of cyclists only. Due to our limited number of observations, the models should be regarded as indicative.

  4. United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; Reister, R.; Peko, D.

    2016-11-02

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCOR results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.

  5. United States Department of Energy severe accident research following the Fukushima Daiichi accidents

    DOE PAGES

    Farmer, M. T.; Corradini, M.; Rempe, J.; ...

    2016-11-02

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has played a major role in the U.S. response to the events at Fukushima Daiichi. During the first several weeks following the accident, U.S. assistance efforts were guided by results from a significant and diverse set of analyses. In the months that followed, a coordinated analysis activity aimed at gaining a more thorough understanding of the accident sequence was completed using laboratory-developed, system-level best-estimate accident analysis codes, while a parallel analysis was conducted by U.S. industry. A comparison of predictions for Unit 1 from these two studies indicated significant differences between MAAP and MELCORmore » results for key plant parameters, such as in-core hydrogen production. On that basis, a crosswalk was completed to determine the key modeling variations that led to these differences. In parallel with these activities, it became clear that there was a need to perform a technology gap evaluation on accident-tolerant components and severe accident analysis methodologies with the goal of identifying any data and/or knowledge gaps that may exist given the current state of light water reactor (LWR) severe accident research and augmented by insights from Fukushima. In addition, there is growing international recognition that data from Fukushima could significantly reduce uncertainties related to severe accident progression, particularly for boiling water reactors. On these bases, a group of U. S. experts in LWR safety and plant operations was convened by the DOE Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) to complete technology gap analysis and Fukushima forensics data needs identification activities. The results from these activities were used as the basis for refining DOE-NE's severe accident research and development (R&D) plan. Finally, this paper provides a high-level review of DOE-sponsored R&D efforts in these areas, including planned activities on accident-tolerant components and accident analysis methods.« less

  6. Fact Sheet: Documenting Ground-Water Models Selection at Site Contaminated with Radioactive Substance

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    This fact sheet summarizes the report by a joint Interagency Environmental Pathway Modeling Working Group. It was designed to be used by technical staff responsible for identifying and implementing flow and transport models to support cleanup decisions.

  7. KABAM Version 1.0 User's Guide and Technical Documentation - Appendix A - Description of Bioaccumulation Model

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The purpose of this model is to estimate chemical concentrations (CB) and BCF and BAF values for aquatic ecosystems. KABAM is a simulation model used to predict pesticide concentrations in aquatic regions for use in exposure assessments.

  8. SSDA code to apply data assimilation in soil water flow modeling: Documentation and user manual

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Soil water flow models are based on simplified assumptions about the mechanisms, processes, and parameters of water retention and flow. That causes errors in soil water flow model predictions. Data assimilation (DA) with the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) corrects modeling results based on measured s...

  9. Organizational Learning Post Catastrophic Events: A Descriptive Case Study Exploring NASA's Learning over Time Following Two Catastrophic Shuttle Accidents Using the Schwandt's Organizational Learning System Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Castro, Edgar Oscar

    2013-01-01

    A 30-year contribution of the Space Shuttle Program is the evolution of NASA's social actions through organizational learning. This study investigated how NASA learned over time following two catastrophic accidents. Schwandt's (1997) organizational Learning System Model (OLSM) characterized the learning in this High Reliability…

  10. NEMS International Energy Module, model documentation report: World Oil Market, Petroleum Products Supply and Oxygenates Supply components

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-04

    The Energy Information Administration (EIA) is developing the National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) to enhance its energy forecasting capabilities and to provide the Department of Energy with a comprehensive framework for analyzing alternative energy` futures. NEMS is designed with a multi-level modular structure that represents specific energy supply activities, conversion processes, and demand sectors as a series of self-contained units which are linked by an integrating mechanism. The NEMS International Energy Module (IEM) computes world oil prices and the resulting patterns of international trade in crude oil and refined products. This report is a reference document for energy analysts, model users, and the public that is intended to meet EIA`s legal obligation to provide adequate documentation for all statistical and forecast reports (Public Law 93-275, section 57(b)(1). Its purpose is to describe the structure of the IEM. Actual operation of the model is not discussed here. The report contains four sections summarizing the overall structure of the IEM and its interface with other NEMS modules, mathematical specifications of behavioral relationships, and data sources and estimation methods. Following a general description of the function and rationale of its key components, system and equation level information sufficient to permit independent evaluation of the model`s technical details is presented.

  11. Tobit analysis of vehicle accident rates on interstate highways.

    PubMed

    Anastasopoulos, Panagiotis Ch; Tarko, Andrew P; Mannering, Fred L

    2008-03-01

    There has been an abundance of research that has used Poisson models and its variants (negative binomial and zero-inflated models) to improve our understanding of the factors that affect accident frequencies on roadway segments. This study explores the application of an alternate method, tobit regression, by viewing vehicle accident rates directly (instead of frequencies) as a continuous variable that is left-censored at zero. Using data from vehicle accidents on Indiana interstates, the estimation results show that many factors relating to pavement condition, roadway geometrics and traffic characteristics significantly affect vehicle accident rates.

  12. Comparison between modelling and measurement of marine dispersion, environmental half-time and 137Cs inventories after the Fukushima Daiichi accident

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bailly du Bois, Pascal; Garreau, Pierre; Laguionie, Philippe; Korsakissok, Irène

    2014-03-01

    Contamination of the marine environment following the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FDNPP) represents the most important influx of artificial radioactivity released into the sea ever recorded. The evaluation, in near real time, of the total amount of radionuclide released at sea and of the residence time in coastal waters were ones of challenges for nuclear authorities during this event. In the framework of a crisis situation, a numerical hydrodynamical model has been built and used `as is'. The concomitant use of this numerical model and in situ data allows the comparison of the simulated and measured environmental half-times. A tuning of the wind drag coefficient has been nevertheless necessary to reproduce the evolution of measured inventories of 137Cs and 134Cs between April and June 2011. After tuning, the relative mean absolute error between measured and simulated concentrations for the 849 measurements in the dataset is 69 %, while the relative bias indicates a model underestimation of 4 %. These results confirm the estimates of the source term, i.e. 27 PBq (12-41 PBq) for direct releases and 3 PBq for atmospheric deposition onto the sea. The parameters applied here to simulate atmospheric deposition onto the sea are within the correct order of magnitude for reproducing seawater concentrations. Quantitative inventories of tracers which integrate dispersion and transport processes are useful to test model reliability. It exhausts the model sensibility to meteorological forcing, which remains difficult to appraise to reproduce mid- to long-term transport.

  13. Full-length fuel rod behavior under severe accident conditions

    SciTech Connect

    Lombardo, N J; Lanning, D D; Panisko, F E

    1992-12-01

    This document presents an assessment of the severe accident phenomena observed from four Full-Length High-Temperature (FLHT) tests that were performed by the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) in the National Research Universal (NRU) reactor at Chalk River, Ontario, Canada. These tests were conducted for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) as part of the Severe Accident Research Program. The objectives of the test were to simulate conditions and provide information on the behavior of full-length fuel rods during hypothetical, small-break, loss-of-coolant severe accidents, in commercial light water reactors.

  14. Do Cognitive Models Help in Predicting the Severity of Posttraumatic Stress Disorder, Phobia, and Depression after Motor Vehicle Accidents? A Prospective Longitudinal Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ehring, Thomas; Ehlers, Anke; Glucksman, Edward

    2008-01-01

    The study investigated the power of theoretically derived cognitive variables to predict posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), travel phobia, and depression following injury in a motor vehicle accident (MVA). MVA survivors (N = 147) were assessed at the emergency department on the day of their accident and 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months…

  15. Documentation of the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheres fourth-order two-layer shallow water model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Takacs, L. L. (Compiler)

    1986-01-01

    The theory and numerical treatment used in the 2-level GLA fourth-order shallow water model are described. This model was designed to emulate the horizontal finite differences used by the GLA Fourth-Order General Circulation Model (Kalnay et al., 1983) in addition to its grid structure, form of high-latitude and global filtering, and time-integration schemes. A user's guide is also provided instructing the user on how to create initial conditions, execute the model, and post-process the data history.

  16. Portable document format file showing the surface models of cadaver whole body.

    PubMed

    Shin, Dong Sun; Chung, Min Suk; Park, Jin Seo; Park, Hyung Seon; Lee, Sangho; Moon, Young Lae; Jang, Hae Gwon

    2012-08-01

    In the Visible Korean project, 642 three-dimensional (3D) surface models have been built from the sectioned images of a male cadaver. It was recently discovered that popular PDF file enables users to approach the numerous surface models conveniently on Adobe Reader. Purpose of this study was to present a PDF file including systematized surface models of human body as the beneficial contents. To achieve the purpose, fitting software packages were employed in accordance with the procedures. Two-dimensional (2D) surface models including the original sectioned images were embedded into the 3D surface models. The surface models were categorized into systems and then groups. The adjusted surface models were inserted to a PDF file, where relevant multimedia data were added. The finalized PDF file containing comprehensive data of a whole body could be explored in varying manners. The PDF file, downloadable freely from the homepage (http://anatomy.co.kr), is expected to be used as a satisfactory self-learning tool of anatomy. Raw data of the surface models can be extracted from the PDF file and employed for various simulations for clinical practice. The technique to organize the surface models will be applied to manufacture of other PDF files containing various multimedia contents.

  17. Why System Safety Professionals Should Read Accident Reports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, C. M.; Johnson, C. W.

    2006-01-01

    System safety professionals, both researchers and practitioners, who regularly read accident reports reap important benefits. These benefits include an improved ability to separate myths from reality, including both myths about specific accidents and ones concerning accidents in general; an increased understanding of the consequences of unlikely events, which can help inform future designs; a greater recognition of the limits of mathematical models; and guidance on potentially relevant research directions that may contribute to safety improvements in future systems.

  18. Model documentation: Electricity Market Module, Load and Demand-Side Management submodule. Volume 2, Model code listing

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1994-04-07

    Volume II of the documentation contains the actual source code of the LDSM submodule, and the cross reference table of its variables. The code is divided into two parts. The first part contains the main part of the source code. The second part lists the INCLUDE files referenced inside the main part of the code.

  19. An exploration of the utility of mathematical modeling predicting fatigue from sleep/wake history and circadian phase applied in accident analysis and prevention: the crash of Comair Flight 5191.

    PubMed

    Pruchnicki, Shawn A; Wu, Lora J; Belenky, Gregory

    2011-05-01

    On 27 August 2006 at 0606 eastern daylight time (EDT) at Bluegrass Airport in Lexington, KY (LEX), the flight crew of Comair Flight 5191 inadvertently attempted to take off from a general aviation runway too short for their aircraft. The aircraft crashed killing 49 of the 50 people on board. To better understand this accident and to aid in preventing similar accidents, we applied mathematical modeling predicting fatigue-related degradation in performance for the Air Traffic Controller on-duty at the time of the crash. To provide the necessary input to the model, we attempted to estimate circadian phase and sleep/wake histories for the Captain, First Officer, and Air Traffic Controller. We were able to estimate with confidence the circadian phase for each. We were able to estimate with confidence the sleep/wake history for the Air Traffic Controller, but unable to do this for the Captain and First Officer. Using the sleep/wake history estimates for the Air Traffic Controller as input, the mathematical modeling predicted moderate fatigue-related performance degradation at the time of the crash. This prediction was supported by the presence of what appeared to be fatigue-related behaviors in the Air Traffic Controller during the 30 min prior to and in the minutes after the crash. Our modeling results do not definitively establish fatigue in the Air Traffic Controller as a cause of the accident, rather they suggest that had he been less fatigued he might have detected Comair Flight 5191's lining up on the wrong runway. We were not able to perform a similar analysis for the Captain and First Officer because we were not able to estimate with confidence their sleep/wake histories. Our estimates of sleep/wake history and circadian rhythm phase for the Air Traffic Controller might generalize to other air traffic controllers and to flight crew operating in the early morning hours at LEX. Relative to other times of day, the modeling results suggest an elevated risk of fatigue

  20. Large-eddy simulation of turbulent winds during the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident by coupling with a meso-scale meteorological simulation model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakayama, H.; Takemi, T.; Nagai, H.

    2015-06-01

    A significant amount of radioactive material was accidentally discharged into the atmosphere from the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant from 12 March 2011, which produced high contaminated areas over a wide region in Japan. In conducting regional-scale atmospheric dispersion simulations, the computer-based nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI-II developed by Japan Atomic Energy Agency was used. Because this system is driven by a meso-scale meteorological (MM) model, it is difficult to reproduce small-scale wind fluctuations due to the effects of local terrain variability and buildings within a nuclear facility that are not explicitly represented in MM models. In this study, we propose a computational approach to couple an LES-based CFD model with a MM model for detailed simulations of turbulent winds with buoyancy effects under real meteorological conditions using turbulent inflow technique. Compared to the simple measurement data, especially, the 10 min averaged wind directions of the LES differ by more than 30 degrees during some period of time. However, distribution patterns of wind speeds, directions, and potential temperature are similar to the MM data. This implies that our coupling technique has potential performance to provide detailed data on contaminated area in the nuclear accidents.

  1. [Accidents affecting potato harvesters].

    PubMed

    Hansen, J U

    1993-09-27

    During industrialization in agriculture, many farming machines have been introduced. It is well-known that farming is a dangerous workplace and that farm machinery cause many serious accidents every year. Four cases of accidents with potato harvesters are discussed. In three of four cases the farmers were injured while cleaning the machine without stopping it, which probably was the main cause of the accidents. Farmers are in general not careful enough when using farm machinery. Every year, farmers in Denmark are severely invalided in accidents with potato harvesters. A strategy to lower the accidents is proposed: 1. Information of farmers, farmer schools, machine constructors and importers about mechanisms of injury. 2. A better education of farmers in using potato harvesters (and other farming machines). 3. Better fencing of the potato harvesters. 4. If possibly constructional changes in the potato harvesters so things will not get stuck, or so that the machine will stop if things stuck. 5. Installation of switches on potato harvesters, which can be reached from all positions, stopping the machines immediately, or a remote switch control carried by the farmer.

  2. SMOKE TOOL FOR MODELS-3 VERSION 4.1 STRUCTURE AND OPERATION DOCUMENTATION

    EPA Science Inventory

    The SMOKE Tool is a part of the Models-3 system, a flexible software system designed to simplify the development and use of air quality models and other environmental decision support tools. The SMOKE Tool is an input processor for SMOKE, (Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissio...

  3. Toward a Model of Journal Economics in the Language Sciences. LINCS Project Document Series.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Berg, Sanford; Campion, Douglas

    This study outlines some considerations for an economic model of the scientific journal market. The model provides an explanation of journal market structure and the dynamics of market behavior, as well as a description of journal market development. Three types of periodicals are discussed: (1) primary, archival journals serving a current…

  4. Matrix Population Model for Estimating Effects from Time-Varying Aquatic Exposures: Technical Documentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    The Office of Pesticide Programs models daily aquatic pesticide exposure values for 30 years in its risk assessments. However, only a fraction of that information is typically used in these assessments. The population model employed herein is a deterministic, density-dependent pe...

  5. Modeling Rare and Unique Documents: Using FRBR[subscript OO]/CIDOC CRM

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Le Boeuf, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Both the library and the museum communities have developed conceptual models for the information they produce about the collections they hold: FRBR (Functional Requirements for Bibliographic Records) and CIDOC CRM (Conceptual Reference Model). But neither proves perfectly adequate when it comes to some specific types of rare and unique materials:…

  6. The response of plants to interacting stresses: PGSM version 1. 3 model documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, C.W.

    1993-04-01

    This report describes the principles and application procedures of the Plant-Growth-Stress model (PGSM) Version 1.3 as of December 1992. The PGSM model simulates a tree growing in soil, subject to the real time stimulation of CO2 and stresses of ozone, acid deposition, drought, and nutrient deficiency. The model is coded with instructions for how a tree grows and reacts to air and soil environments. It is also coded with information about biogeochemical processes occurring in the soil. The model begins with initial conditions of tree and soil characteristics. Each day, the model updates the meteorological and air quality conditions from input files. According to the coded instructions, the model simulates hydrological, geochemical, and physiological processes to generate the daily output of tree parameters (sugar production, nutrient uptake, growth and mortality of canopy, roots, and stem) and soil parameters (moisture, temperature, and ion concentrations). The model also keeps track of water deficit, ozone damage, nutrient deficiency, and aluminum toxicity. The model uses an hourly time step for photosynthesis and a daily time step for all other processes. It can be set up to run for as many years as desired, to show growth from a small seedling to a large mature tree. Menus are provided for the on-screen changes of input data and on-screen review of graphical outputs. Model application requires a step by step procedure of data acquisition, calibration to seedlings data from fumigation experiments, extension to mature trees in forest plots, sensitivity analysis, hypothesis testing, scenario evaluation, and uncertainty analysis. Real time climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) and air pollution levels (CO[sub 2], O[sub 3], SO[sub 2], SO[sub 4], etc.) can be altered for scenario evaluations.

  7. The response of plants to interacting stresses: PGSM Version 1.3 model documentation. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Chen, C.W.

    1993-04-01

    This report describes the principles and application procedures of the Plant-Growth-Stress model (PGSM) Version 1.3 as of December 1992. The PGSM model simulates a tree growing in soil, subject to the real time stimulation of CO{sub 2} and stresses of ozone, acid deposition, drought, and nutrient deficiency. The model is coded with instructions for how a tree grows and reacts to air and soil environments. It is also coded with information about biogeochemical processes occurring in the soil. The model begins with initial conditions of tree and soil characteristics. Each day, the model updates the meteorological and air quality conditions from input files. According to the coded instructions, the model simulates hydrological, geochemical, and physiological processes to generate the daily output of tree parameters (sugar production, nutrient uptake, growth and mortality of canopy, roots, and stem) and soil parameters (moisture, temperature, and ion concentrations). The model also keeps track of water deficit, ozone damage, nutrient deficiency, and aluminum toxicity. The model uses an hourly time step for photosynthesis and a daily time step for all other processes. It can be set up to run for as many years as desired, to show growth from a small seedling to a large mature tree. Menus are provided for the on-screen changes of input data and on-screen review of graphical outputs. Model application requires a step by step procedure of data acquisition, calibration to seedlings data from fumigation experiments, extension to mature trees in forest plots, sensitivity analysis, hypothesis testing, scenario evaluation, and uncertainty analysis. Real time climate conditions (temperature and precipitation) and air pollution levels (CO{sub 2}, O{sub 3}, SO{sub 2}, SO{sub 4}, etc.) can be altered for scenario evaluations.

  8. Documentation and analysis of a global CO{sub 2} model developed by Peng et al. (1983)

    SciTech Connect

    Jager, H.I.; Peng, T.H.; King, A.W.; Sale, M.J.

    1990-07-01

    A global carbon model, the Peng `83 model, has been standardized according to protocols developed for an intermodel comparison. The first part of this document describes the model as they received it, and the second part describes a standardized version of the model, which has been parameterized according to the protocols described. Model performance was evaluated according to defined criteria and a sensitivity analysis of the model was conducted to identify the most important parameters. The standardized model was supplemented with a calibration routine to define reasonable combinations of initial conditions. This improved the ability of the model to hold an initial equilibrium state. Sensitivity analysis showed a shift in parameter importances with time. The initial conditions were of greatest importance for the length of these simulations, but declined in longer simulations. With the initial pCO{sub 2} excluded from the sensitivity analysis, ocean surface area (used to extrapolate results) was second in importance. While the CO{sub 2} exchange rate were initially most important, the model projections of atmospheric CO{sub 2} soon became more sensitive to the alkalinity of the ocean.

  9. As-Built documentation of programs to implement the Robertson and Doraiswamy/Thompson models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Valenziano, D. J. (Principal Investigator)

    1981-01-01

    The software which implements two spring wheat phenology models is described. The main program routines for the Doraiswamy/Thompson crop phenology model and the basic Robertson crop phenology model are DTMAIN and BRMAIN. These routines read meteorological data files and coefficient files, accept the planting date information and other information from the user, and initiate processing. Daily processing for the basic Robertson program consists only of calculation of the basic Robertson increment of crop development. Additional processing in the Doraiswamy/Thompson program includes the calculation of a moisture stress index and correction of the basic increment of development. Output for both consists of listings of the daily results.

  10. H2A Biomethane Model Documentation and a Case Study for Biogas From Dairy Farms

    SciTech Connect

    Saur, G.; Jalalzadeh, A.

    2010-12-01

    The new H2A Biomethane model was developed to estimate the levelized cost of biomethane by using the framework of the vetted original H2A models for hydrogen production and delivery. For biomethane production, biogas from sources such as dairy farms and landfills is upgraded by a cleanup process. The model also estimates the cost to compress and transport the product gas via the pipeline to export it to the natural gas grid or any other potential end-use site. Inputs include feed biogas composition and cost, required biomethane quality, cleanup equipment capital and operations and maintenance costs, process electricity usage and costs, and pipeline delivery specifications.

  11. MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS)

    SciTech Connect

    Chanin, D.I. ); Sprung, J.L.; Ritchie, L.T.; Jow, Hong-Nian )

    1990-02-01

    This report describes the MACCS computer code. The purpose of this code is to simulate the impact of severe accidents at nuclear power plants on the surrounding environment. MACCS has been developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to replace the previous CRAC2 code, and it incorporates many improvements in modeling flexibility in comparison to CRAC2. The principal phenomena considered in MACCS are atmospheric transport, mitigative actions based on dose projection, dose accumulation by a number of pathways including food and water ingestion, early and latent health effects, and economic costs. The MACCS code can be used for a variety of applications. These include (1) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities, (2) sensitivity studies to gain a better understanding of the parameters important to PRA, and (3) cost-benefit analysis. This report is composed of three volumes. This document, Volume 1, the Users's Guide, describes the input data requirements of the MACCS code and provides directions for its use as illustrated by three sample problems.

  12. Accident Fault Trees for Defense Waste Processing Facility

    SciTech Connect

    Sarrack, A.G.

    1999-06-22

    The purpose of this report is to document fault tree analyses which have been completed for the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF) safety analysis. Logic models for equipment failures and human error combinations that could lead to flammable gas explosions in various process tanks, or failure of critical support systems were developed for internal initiating events and for earthquakes. These fault trees provide frequency estimates for support systems failures and accidents that could lead to radioactive and hazardous chemical releases both on-site and off-site. Top event frequency results from these fault trees will be used in further APET analyses to calculate accident risk associated with DWPF facility operations. This report lists and explains important underlying assumptions, provides references for failure data sources, and briefly describes the fault tree method used. Specific commitments from DWPF to provide new procedural/administrative controls or system design changes are listed in the ''Facility Commitments'' section. The purpose of the ''Assumptions'' section is to clarify the basis for fault tree modeling, and is not necessarily a list of items required to be protected by Technical Safety Requirements (TSRs).

  13. Injuries are not accidents

    PubMed Central

    Gutiérrez, María Isabel

    2014-01-01

    Injuries are the result of an acute exposure to exhort of energy or a consequence of a deficiency in a vital element that exceeds physiological thresholds resulting threatens life. They are classified as intentional or unintentional. Injuries are considered a global health issue because they cause more than 5 million deaths per year worldwide and they are an important contributor to the burden of disease, especially affecting people of low socioeconomic status in low- and middle-income countries. A common misconception exists where injuries are thought to be the same as accidents; however, accidents are largely used as chance events, without taken in consideration that all these are preventable. This review discusses injuries and accidents in the context of road traffic and emphasizes injuries as preventable events. An understanding of the essence of injuries enables the standardization of terminology in public use and facilitates the development of a culture of prevention among all of us. PMID:25386040

  14. Planning, creating and documenting a NASTRAN finite element model of a modern helicopter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gabal, R.; Reed, D.; Ricks, R.; Kesack, W.

    1985-01-01

    Mathematical models based on the finite element method of structural analysis as embodied in the NASTRAN computer code are widely used by the helicopter industry to calculate static internal loads and vibration of airframe structure. The internal loads are routinely used for sizing structural members. The vibration predictions are not yet relied on during design. NASA's Langley Research Center sponsored a program to conduct an application of the finite element method with emphasis on predicting structural vibration. The Army/Boeing CH-47D helicopter was used as the modeling subject. The objective was to engender the needed trust in vibration predictions using these models and establish a body of modeling guides which would enable confident future prediction of airframe vibration as part of the regular design process.

  15. Planning, creating and documenting a NASTRAN finite element model of a modern-helicopter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gabel, R.; Reed, D.; Ricks, R.; Kesack, W.

    1984-01-01

    Mathematical models based on the finite element method of structural analysis as embodied in the NASTRAN computer code are widely used by the helicopter industry to calculate static internal loads and vibration of airframe structure. The internal loads are routinely used for sizing structural members. The vibration predictions are not yet relied on during design. NASA's Langley Research Center sponsored a program to conduct an application of the finite element method with emphasis on predicting structural vibration. The Army/Boeing CH-47D helicopter was used as the modeling subject. The objective was used to engender the needed trust in vibration predictions using these models and establish a body of modeling guides which would enable confident future prediction of airframe vibration as part of the regular design process.

  16. Analysis and calculation of macrosegregation in a casting ingot. MPS solidification model. Volume 2: Software documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maples, A. L.

    1980-01-01

    The software developed for the solidification model is presented. A link between the calculations and the FORTRAN code is provided, primarily in the form of global flow diagrams and data structures. A complete listing of the solidification code is given.

  17. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability through RESTful Endpoints and API Documentation.

    EPA Science Inventory

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantag...

  18. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability through RESTful Endpoints and API Documentation

    EPA Science Inventory

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantag...

  19. Environmental Models as a Service: Enabling Interoperability through RESTful Endpoints and API Documentation (presentation)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Achieving interoperability in environmental modeling has evolved as software technology has progressed. The recent rise of cloud computing and proliferation of web services initiated a new stage for creating interoperable systems. Scientific programmers increasingly take advantag...

  20. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Product Prices Module

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The petroleum products price module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide U.S. average wholesale and retail price forecasts for motor gasoline, diesel fuel, heating oil, and jet fuel.

  1. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Supply and Demand

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The hydrocarbon gas liquids (ethane, propane, butanes, and natural gasoline) module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model is designed to provide forecasts of U.S. production, consumption, refinery inputs, net imports, and inventories.

  2. Documentation of the solar radiation parameterization in the GLAS climate model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Davies, R.

    1982-01-01

    The parameterization of solar radiation in the Goddard Laboratory for atmospheric sciences (GLAS) general circulation model (GCM) is described. It explicitly considers the directional nature of the direct solar beam in treating radiative transfer within clouds, and in treating the effect of surface reflection. This is accomplished using delta Eddington and delta 2 stream models for the radiative transfer within isolated atmospheric layers, and by coupling the individual layers together by efficiently repeated applications of the interaction principle.

  3. Contributions to the Science Modeling Requirements Document; Earth Limb & Auroral Backgrounds

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    Ionosphere Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory K Planetary index Lyman-Birge-Hopfield Low resolution transmission model Local...measurements of atmospheric parameters (Hedin, 1983). MSIS-83 modeled magnetic storm variations in terms of the 3hr ap index and extended its region of...stations. NOAA/SEL issues provisional estimates of the planetary range indices Ap and Kp. These indices derive from real-time measurements of

  4. Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) Model: Documentation and Sample Results

    SciTech Connect

    Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Margolis, R.

    2009-09-01

    The Solar Deployment System (SolarDS) model is a bottom-up, market penetration model that simulates the potential adoption of photovoltaics (PV) on residential and commercial rooftops in the continental United States through 2030. NREL developed SolarDS to examine the market competitiveness of PV based on regional solar resources, capital costs, electricity prices, utility rate structures, and federal and local incentives. The model uses the projected financial performance of PV systems to simulate PV adoption for building types and regions then aggregates adoption to state and national levels. The main components of SolarDS include a PV performance simulator, a PV annual revenue calculator, a PV financial performance calculator, a PV market share calculator, and a regional aggregator. The model simulates a variety of installed PV capacity for a range of user-specified input parameters. PV market penetration levels from 15 to 193 GW by 2030 were simulated in preliminary model runs. SolarDS results are primarily driven by three model assumptions: (1) future PV cost reductions, (2) the maximum PV market share assumed for systems with given financial performance, and (3) PV financing parameters and policy-driven assumptions, such as the possible future cost of carbon emissions.

  5. Documentation of a dissolved-solids model of the Tongue River, southeastern Montana

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Woods, Paul F.

    1981-01-01

    A model has been developed for assessing potential increases in dissolved solids of the Tongue River as a result of leaching of overburden materials used to backfill pits in surface coal-mining operations. The model allows spatial and temporal simulation of streamflow and dissolved-solids loads and concentrations under user-defined scenarios of surface coal mining and agricultural development. The model routes an input quantity of streamflow and dissolved solids from the upstream end to the downstream end of a stream reach while algebraically accounting for gains and losses of streamflow and dissolved solids within the stream reach. Input data needed to operate the model include the following: simulation number, designation of hydrologic conditions for each simulated month, either user-defined or regression-defined concentrations of dissolved solids input by the Tongue River Reservoir, number of irrigated acres, number of mined acres, dissolved-solids concentration of mine leachates and quantity of other water losses. A listing of the Fortran computer program, definitions of all variables in the model, and an example output permit use of the model by interested persons. (USGS)

  6. Who by accident? The social morphology of car accidents.

    PubMed

    Factor, Roni; Yair, Gad; Mahalel, David

    2010-09-01

    Prior studies in the sociology of accidents have shown that different social groups have different rates of accident involvement. This study extends those studies by implementing Bourdieu's relational perspective of social space to systematically explore the homology between drivers' social characteristics and their involvement in specific types of motor vehicle accident. Using a large database that merges official Israeli road-accident records with socioeconomic data from two censuses, this research maps the social order of road accidents through multiple correspondence analysis. Extending prior studies, the results show that different social groups indeed tend to be involved in motor vehicle accidents of different types and severity. For example, we find that drivers from low socioeconomic backgrounds are overinvolved in severe accidents with fatal outcomes. The new findings reported here shed light on the social regularity of road accidents and expose new facets in the social organization of death.

  7. Criticality accident alarm system

    SciTech Connect

    Malenfant, R.E.

    1991-01-01

    The American National Standard ANSI/ANS-8.3-1986, Criticality Accident Alarm System provides guidance for the establishment and maintenance of an alarm system to initiate personnel evacuation in the event of inadvertent criticality. In addition to identifying the physical features of the components of the system, the characteristics of accidents of concern are carefully delineated. Unfortunately, this ANSI Standard has led to considerable confusion in interpretation, and there is evidence that the minimum accident of concern'' may not be appropriate. Furthermore, although intended as a guide, the provisions of the standard are being rigorously applied, sometimes with interpretations that are not consistent. Although the standard is clear in the use of absorbed dose in free air of 20 rad, at least one installation has interpreted the requirement to apply to dose in soft tissue. The standard is also clear in specifying the response to both neutrons and gamma rays. An assembly of uranyl fluoride enriched to 5% {sup 235}U was operated to simulate a potential accident. The dose, delivered in a free run excursion 2 m from the surface of the vessel, was greater than 500 rad, without ever exceeding a rate of 20 rad/min, which is the set point for activating an alarm that meets the standard. The presence of an alarm system would not have prevented any of the five major accidents in chemical operations nor is it absolutely certain that the alarms were solely responsible for reducing personnel exposures following the accident. Nevertheless, criticality alarm systems are now the subject of great effort and expense. 13 refs.

  8. Modeling watershed-scale (137)Cs transport in a forested catchment affected by the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident.

    PubMed

    Wei, Lezhang; Kinouchi, Tsuyoshi; Yoshimura, Kazuya; Velleux, Mark L

    2017-02-02

    The Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 resulted in (137)Cs contamination of large areas in northeast Japan. A watershed-scale (137)Cs transport model was developed and applied to a forested catchment in Fukushima area. This model considers (137)Cs wash-off from vegetation, movement through soils, and transport of dissolved and particulate (137)Cs adsorbed to clay, silt and sand. Comparisons between measurements and simulations demonstrated that the model well reproduced (137)Cs concentrations in the stream fed from the catchment. Simulations estimated that 0.57 TBq of (137)Cs was exported from the catchment between June, 2011 and December, 2014. Transport largely occurred with eroded sediment particles at a ratio of 17:70:13 of clay, silt, and sand. The overall (137)Cs reduction ratio by rainfall-runoff wash-off was about 1.6%. Appreciable (137)Cs remained in the catchment at the end of 2014. The largest rate of (137)Cs reduction by wash-off was simulated to occur in subwatersheds of the upper catchment. However, despite relatively low initial deposition, middle portions of the watershed exported proportionately more (137)Cs by rainfall-runoff processes. Simulations indicated that much of the transported (137)Cs originates from erosion over hillsides and river banks. These results suggested that areas where (137)Cs accumulates with redeposited sediments can be targeted for decontamination and also provided insight into (137)Cs transport at the watershed scale to assess risk management and decontamination planning efforts.

  9. IDA/BPT crisis relocation planning model: description, documentation and user's guide to the computer program. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Pearsall, E.S.; Bushnell, R.C.

    1982-12-22

    This report describes work performed by Bushnell, Pearsall and Trozzo, Inc., under subcontract with the Institute for Defense Analyses on Task A-1 of IDA Contract No. EMW-0749 with the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Task A-1 calls for the development of a model to simulate population movement during an evacuation from the risk area to the various host areas over a transportation network. This report describes, documents and provides a user's guide to a system of computer routines which perform the various computations required to apply a crisis relocation model developed jointly by IDA and BPT, Inc. The computer routines together comprise an interactive system resident on the FEMA Univac 1108 facility. The model and its attached national data base can be used to analyze in detail the evacuation.

  10. Document Monitor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    The charters of Freedom Monitoring System will periodically assess the physical condition of the U.S. Constitution, Declaration of Independence and Bill of Rights. Although protected in helium filled glass cases, the documents are subject to damage from light vibration and humidity. The photometer is a CCD detector used as the electronic film for the camera system's scanning camera which mechanically scans the document line by line and acquires a series of images, each representing a one square inch portion of the document. Perkin-Elmer Corporation's photometer is capable of detecting changes in contrast, shape or other indicators of degradation with 5 to 10 times the sensitivity of the human eye. A Vicom image processing computer receives the data from the photometer stores it and manipulates it, allowing comparison of electronic images over time to detect changes.

  11. Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Model; Final report: Documentation of waste management process, development of Cost Estimation Model, and model reference manual

    SciTech Connect

    Matysiak, L.M.; Burns, M.L.

    1994-03-01

    This final report completes the Los Alamos Waste Management Cost Estimation Project, and includes the documentation of the waste management processes at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) for hazardous, mixed, low-level radioactive solid and transuranic waste, development of the cost estimation model and a user reference manual. The ultimate goal of this effort was to develop an estimate of the life cycle costs for the aforementioned waste types. The Cost Estimation Model is a tool that can be used to calculate the costs of waste management at LANL for the aforementioned waste types, under several different scenarios. Each waste category at LANL is managed in a separate fashion, according to Department of Energy requirements and state and federal regulations. The cost of the waste management process for each waste category has not previously been well documented. In particular, the costs associated with the handling, treatment and storage of the waste have not been well understood. It is anticipated that greater knowledge of these costs will encourage waste generators at the Laboratory to apply waste minimization techniques to current operations. Expected benefits of waste minimization are a reduction in waste volume, decrease in liability and lower waste management costs.

  12. Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit Final Safety Analysis Report (LWRHU FSAR): Volume 3, Nuclear Risk Analysis Document

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1988-11-30

    The Light-Weight Radioisotope Heater Unit (LWRHU) Final Safety Analysis Report (FSAR), Volume 2, Accident Model Document (AMD) describes potential accident scenarios during the Galileo mission and evaluates the response of the LWRHUs to the associated accident environments. Any resulting source terms, consisting of PuO2 (with Pu-238 the dominant radionuclide), are then described in terms of curies released, particle size distribution, release location, and probabilities. This volume (LWRHU-FSAR, Volume 3, Nuclear Risk Analysis Document (NRAD)) contains the radiological analyses which estimate the consequences of the accident scenarios described in the AMD. It also contains the quantification of mission risks resulting from the LWRHUs based on consideration of all accident scenarios and their probabilities. Estimates of source terms and their characteristics derived in the AMD are used as inputs to the analyses in the NRAD. The Failure Abort Sequence Trees (FASTs) presented in the AMD define events for which source terms occur and quantify them. Based on this information, three types of source term cases (most probable, maximum, and expectation) for each mission phase were developed for use in evaluating the radiological consequences and mission risks. 4 refs., 5 figs., 8 tabs.

  13. A framework for the assessment of severe accident management strategies

    SciTech Connect

    Kastenberg, W.E.; Apostolakis, G.; Dhir, V.K.

    1993-09-01

    Severe accident management can be defined as the use of existing and/or altemative resources, systems and actors to prevent or mitigate a core-melt accident. For each accident sequence and each combination of severe accident management strategies, there may be several options available to the operator, and each involves phenomenological and operational considerations regarding uncertainty. Operational uncertainties include operator, system and instrumentation behavior during an accident. A framework based on decision trees and influence diagrams has been developed which incorporates such criteria as feasibility, effectiveness, and adverse effects, for evaluating potential severe accident management strategies. The framework is also capable of propagating both data and model uncertainty. It is applied to several potential strategies including PWR cavity flooding, BWR drywell flooding, PWR depressurization and PWR feed and bleed.

  14. [Travel and accidents].

    PubMed

    Cha, Olivier

    2015-04-01

    Traumatic pathologies are the most frequent medical events to be observed among French travellers. Accidents on the public highway by lack of respect of the fundamental rules of road security, particularly abroad, traffic conditions in bad repair in numerous emergent countries, usually the destination of mass tourism and underdeveloped organization of health care and local urgency help. Sports activities are also a source of accidents. A good physical training is essential. Drowning is a real plague, especially among children due to a lack of vigilance. Preventive measures are simple, keep them constantly in mind and apply them carefully so as to have beautiful memories of our trip back home.

  15. Accidents and repatriation.

    PubMed

    Leggat, Peter A; Fischer, Philip R

    2006-01-01

    Accidents and injury contribute greatly to the morbidity and mortality of travellers worldwide, with road traffic accidents being a major contributer. Those travelers with serious illness and injury may need specialised medical evacuation services, which may involve an air ambulance and a specialised medical team. Such aeromedical repatriations require considerable organisation and liaison between the sending and receiving medical services and other interested parties. However, the majority of travellers requiring emergency assistance are stable patients requiring referral for medical or dental attention or special requirements for carriage on scheduled aircraft.

  16. Columbia Accident Investigation Board Report. Volume Two

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barry, J. R.; Jenkins, D. R.; White, D. J.; Goodman, P. A.; Reingold, L. A.

    2003-01-01

    Volume II of the Report contains appendices that were cited in Volume I. The Columbia Accident Investigation Board produced many of these appendices as working papers during the investigation into the February 1, 2003 destruction of the Space Shuttle Columbia. Other appendices were produced by other organizations (mainly NASA) in support of the Board investigation. In the case of documents that have been published by others, they are included here in the interest of establishing a complete record, but often at less than full page size. Contents include: CAIB Technical Documents Cited in the Report: Reader's Guide to Volume II; Appendix D. a Supplement to the Report; Appendix D.b Corrections to Volume I of the Report; Appendix D.1 STS-107 Training Investigation; Appendix D.2 Payload Operations Checklist 3; Appendix D.3 Fault Tree Closure Summary; Appendix D.4 Fault Tree Elements - Not Closed; Appendix D.5 Space Weather Conditions; Appendix D.6 Payload and Payload Integration; Appendix D.7 Working Scenario; Appendix D.8 Debris Transport Analysis; Appendix D.9 Data Review and Timeline Reconstruction Report; Appendix D.10 Debris Recovery; Appendix D.11 STS-107 Columbia Reconstruction Report; Appendix D.12 Impact Modeling; Appendix D.13 STS-107 In-Flight Options Assessment; Appendix D.14 Orbiter Major Modification (OMM) Review; Appendix D.15 Maintenance, Material, and Management Inputs; Appendix D.16 Public Safety Analysis; Appendix D.17 MER Manager's Tiger Team Checklist; Appendix D.18 Past Reports Review; Appendix D.19 Qualification and Interpretation of Sensor Data from STS-107; Appendix D.20 Bolt Catcher Debris Analysis.

  17. LNGFIRE: A thermal radiation model for LNG fires. Topical report, June 29, 1990. Documentation

    SciTech Connect

    Atallah, S.; Shah, J.N.

    1990-06-29

    The Federal Code Model for predicting exclusion distances from LNG fires (49 CFR 193.2057) was critically evaluated. The results of LNG fire tests carried out to date were reviewed and an improved model for predicting exclusion distances was developed and verified. This model assumes that the flame takes the shape of a cylinder or a parallellepiped, depending on whether the fuel impoundment area is circular or rectangular in shape. It allows for flame drag and tilt in the presence of wind. Based on experimental data, the maximum surface emissive power and the flame attenuation coefficient were estimated at 190 kw/sq m (60,267 Btu/hr sq ft) and 0.3/m (0.09/ft), respectively.

  18. Biomechanical Modeling to Improve Coronary Artery Bifurcation Stenting: Expert Review Document on Techniques and Clinical Implementation.

    PubMed

    Antoniadis, Antonios P; Mortier, Peter; Kassab, Ghassan; Dubini, Gabriele; Foin, Nicolas; Murasato, Yoshinobu; Giannopoulos, Andreas A; Tu, Shengxian; Iwasaki, Kiyotaka; Hikichi, Yutaka; Migliavacca, Francesco; Chiastra, Claudio; Wentzel, Jolanda J; Gijsen, Frank; Reiber, Johan H C; Barlis, Peter; Serruys, Patrick W; Bhatt, Deepak L; Stankovic, Goran; Edelman, Elazer R; Giannoglou, George D; Louvard, Yves; Chatzizisis, Yiannis S

    2015-08-24

    Treatment of coronary bifurcation lesions remains an ongoing challenge for interventional cardiologists. Stenting of coronary bifurcations carries higher risk for in-stent restenosis, stent thrombosis, and recurrent clinical events. This review summarizes the current evidence regarding application and use of biomechanical modeling in the study of stent properties, local flow dynamics, and outcomes after percutaneous coronary interventions in bifurcation lesions. Biomechanical modeling of bifurcation stenting involves computational simulations and in vitro bench testing using subject-specific arterial geometries obtained from in vivo imaging. Biomechanical modeling has the potential to optimize stenting strategies and stent design, thereby reducing adverse outcomes. Large-scale clinical studies are needed to establish the translation of pre-clinical findings to the clinical arena.

  19. Thrust Chamber Modeling Using Navier-Stokes Equations: Code Documentation and Listings. Volume 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Daley, P. L.; Owens, S. F.

    1988-01-01

    A copy of the PHOENICS input files and FORTRAN code developed for the modeling of thrust chambers is given. These copies are contained in the Appendices. The listings are contained in Appendices A through E. Appendix A describes the input statements relevant to thrust chamber modeling as well as the FORTRAN code developed for the Satellite program. Appendix B describes the FORTRAN code developed for the Ground program. Appendices C through E contain copies of the Q1 (input) file, the Satellite program, and the Ground program respectively.

  20. SCDAP/RELAP5/MOD 3.1 code manual: MATPRO, A library of materials properties for Light-Water-Reactor accident analysis. Volume 4

    SciTech Connect

    Hagrman, D.T.; Allison, C.M.; Berna, G.A.

    1995-06-01

    The SCDAP/RELAP5 code has been developed for best estimate transient simulation of light -- water-reactor coolant systems during a severe accident. The code models the coupled behavior of the reactor coolant system, the core, fission products released during a severe accident transient as well as large and small break loss of coolant accidents, operational transients such as anticipated transient without SCRAM, loss of offsite power, loss of feedwater, and loss of flow. A generic modeling approach is used that permits as much of a particular system to be modeled as necessary. Control system and secondary system components are included to permit modeling of plant controls, turbines, condensers, and secondary feedwater conditioning systems. This volume, Volume IV, describes the material properties correlations and computer subroutines (MATPRO) used by SCDAP/RELAP5. formulation of the materials properties are generally semi-empirical in nature. The materials property subroutines contained in this document are for uranium, uranium dioxide, mixed uranium-plutonium dioxide fuel, zircaloy cladding, zirconium dioxide, stainless steel, stainless steel oxide, silver-indium-cadmium alloy, cadmium, boron carbide, Inconel 718, zirconium-uranium-oxygen melts, fill gas mixtures, carbon steel, and tungsten. This document also contains descriptions of the reaction and solution rate models needed to analyze a reactor accident.

  1. Examining, Documenting, and Modeling the Problem Space of a Variable Domain

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2002-06-14

    ABSTRACT see report 15. SUBJECT TERMS 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT Same as Report (SAR) 18 . NUMBER OF PAGES 71 19a...by ANSI Std Z39- 18 Acknowledgements I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Dr. Andrew Olson for providing a great deal of input and... 18 Proposed Method for Modeling the Problem Space of a

  2. Documentation of a ground hydrology parameterization for use in the GISS atmospheric general circulation model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lin, J. D.; Aleano, J.; Bock, P.

    1978-01-01

    The moisture transport processes related to the earth's surface relevant to the ground circulation model GCM are presented. The GHM parametrizations considered are: (1) ground wetness and soil parameters; (2) precipitation; (3) evapotranspiration; (4) surface storage of snow and ice; and (5) runout. The computational aspects of the GHM using computer programs and flow charts are described.

  3. BMDS 2.0 BETA WITH NEW QUANTAL MODEL DEVELOPMENT EXTERNAL REVIEW REPORTS AND SUPPORTING DOCUMENTS

    EPA Science Inventory

    With the availability of BMDS 2.0 on the BMDS web site, EPA is providing (a) results of the external review (charge to reviewers and reviewer comments), (b) EPA responses to the review comments, and (c) a report describing development and testing of the models in BMDS 2.0 with ne...

  4. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Petroleum Products Supply Module

    EIA Publications

    2013-01-01

    The Petroleum Products Supply Module of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model provides forecasts of petroleum refinery inputs (crude oil, unfinished oils, pentanes plus, liquefied petroleum gas, motor gasoline blending components, and aviation gasoline blending components) and refinery outputs (motor gasoline, jet fuel, distillate fuel, residual fuel, liquefied petroleum gas, and other petroleum products).

  5. MaSTiS, microorganism and solute transport in streams, model documentation and user manual

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In-stream fate and transport of solutes and microorganisms need to be understood to evaluate suitability of waters for agricultural, recreational, and household uses and eventually minimize surface water contamination. Concerns over safety of this water resulted in development of predictive models f...

  6. AgRISTARS: Yield model development/soil moisture. Interface control document

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    The interactions and support functions required between the crop Yield Model Development (YMD) Project and Soil Moisture (SM) Project are defined. The requirements for YMD support of SM and vice-versa are outlined. Specific tasks in support of these interfaces are defined for development of support functions.

  7. System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets - Vol. II, Model Documentation

    EIA Publications

    2003-01-01

    The second volume provides a data implementation guide that lists all naming conventions and model constraints. In addition, Volume 1 has two appendixes that provide a schematic of the System for the Analysis of Global Energy Markets (SAGE) structure and a listing of the source code, respectively.

  8. Dose estimates from the Chernobyl accident

    SciTech Connect

    Lange, R.; Dickerson, M.H.; Gudiksen, P.H.

    1987-11-01

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) responded to the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident in the Soviet Union by utilizing long-range atmospheric dispersion modeling to estimate the amount of radioactivity released (source term) and the radiation dose distribution due to exposure to the radioactive cloud over Europe and the Northern Hemisphere. In later assessments, after the release of data on the accident by the Soviet Union, the ARAC team used their mesoscale to regional scale model to focus in on the radiation dose distribution within the Soviet Union and the vicinity of the Chernobyl plant. 22 refs., 5 figs., 5 tabs.

  9. "Notable Documents."

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Government Publications Review, 1990

    1990-01-01

    This annotated bibliography lists 569 documents from local, state, provincial, and national governments and from international organizations that have been selected on the basis of their reference value and/or subject coverage. Topics covered include health sciences, business and economics, government and politics, social problems, education,…

  10. Scientific Documentation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pieper, Gail W.

    1980-01-01

    Describes how scientific documentation is taught in three 50-minute sessions in a technical writing course. Tells how session one distinguishes between in-text notes, footnotes, and reference entries; session two discusses the author-year system of citing references; and session three is concerned with the author-number system of reference…

  11. System Definition Document: Reactor Data Necessary for Modeling Plutonium Disposition in Catawba Nuclear Station Units 1 and 2

    SciTech Connect

    Ellis, R.J.

    2000-11-01

    The US Department of Energy (USDOE) has contracted with Duke Engineering and Services, Cogema, Inc., and Stone and Webster (DCS) to provide mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel fabrication and reactor irradiation services in support of USDOE's mission to dispose of surplus weapons-grade plutonium. The nuclear station units currently identified as mission reactors for this project are Catawba Units 1 and 2 and McGuire Units 1 and 2. This report is specific to Catawba Nuclear Station Units 1 and 2, but the details and materials for the McGuire reactors are very similar. The purpose of this document is to present a complete set of data about the reactor materials and components to be used in modeling the Catawba reactors to predict reactor physics parameters for the Catawba site. Except where noted, Duke Power Company or DCS documents are the sources of these data. These data are being used with the ORNL computer code models of the DCS Catawba (and McGuire) pressurized-water reactors.

  12. Short-Term Energy Outlook Model Documentation: Natural Gas Consumption and Prices

    EIA Publications

    2015-01-01

    The natural gas consumption and price modules of the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) model are designed to provide consumption and end-use retail price forecasts for the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors in the nine Census districts and natural gas working inventories in three regions. Natural gas consumption shares and prices in each Census district are used to calculate an average U.S. retail price for each end-use sector.

  13. Documenting Differences between Early Stone Age Flake Production Systems: An Experimental Model and Archaeological Verification.

    PubMed

    Presnyakova, Darya; Archer, Will; Braun, David R; Flear, Wesley

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates morphological differences between flakes produced via "core and flake" technologies and those resulting from bifacial shaping strategies. We investigate systematic variation between two technological groups of flakes using experimentally produced assemblages, and then apply the experimental model to the Cutting 10 Mid -Pleistocene archaeological collection from Elandsfontein, South Africa. We argue that a specific set of independent variables--and their interactions--including external platform angle, platform depth, measures of thickness variance and flake curvature should distinguish between these two technological groups. The role of these variables in technological group separation was further investigated using the Generalized Linear Model as well as Linear Discriminant Analysis. The Discriminant model was used to classify archaeological flakes from the Cutting 10 locality in terms of their probability of association, within either experimentally developed technological group. The results indicate that the selected independent variables play a central role in separating core and flake from bifacial technologies. Thickness evenness and curvature had the greatest effect sizes in both the Generalized Linear and Discriminant models. Interestingly the interaction between thickness evenness and platform depth was significant and played an important role in influencing technological group membership. The identified interaction emphasizes the complexity in attempting to distinguish flake production strategies based on flake morphological attributes. The results of the discriminant function analysis demonstrate that the majority of flakes at the Cutting 10 locality were not associated with the production of the numerous Large Cutting Tools found at the site, which corresponds with previous suggestions regarding technological behaviors reflected in this assemblage.

  14. Documenting Differences between Early Stone Age Flake Production Systems: An Experimental Model and Archaeological Verification

    PubMed Central

    Presnyakova, Darya; Archer, Will; Braun, David R.; Flear, Wesley

    2015-01-01

    This study investigates morphological differences between flakes produced via “core and flake” technologies and those resulting from bifacial shaping strategies. We investigate systematic variation between two technological groups of flakes using experimentally produced assemblages, and then apply the experimental model to the Cutting 10 Mid -Pleistocene archaeological collection from Elandsfontein, South Africa. We argue that a specific set of independent variables—and their interactions—including external platform angle, platform depth, measures of thickness variance and flake curvature should distinguish between these two technological groups. The role of these variables in technological group separation was further investigated using the Generalized Linear Model as well as Linear Discriminant Analysis. The Discriminant model was used to classify archaeological flakes from the Cutting 10 locality in terms of their probability of association, within either experimentally developed technological group. The results indicate that the selected independent variables play a central role in separating core and flake from bifacial technologies. Thickness evenness and curvature had the greatest effect sizes in both the Generalized Linear and Discriminant models. Interestingly the interaction between thickness evenness and platform depth was significant and played an important role in influencing technological group membership. The identified interaction emphasizes the complexity in attempting to distinguish flake production strategies based on flake morphological attributes. The results of the discriminant function analysis demonstrate that the majority of flakes at the Cutting 10 locality were not associated with the production of the numerous Large Cutting Tools found at the site, which corresponds with previous suggestions regarding technological behaviors reflected in this assemblage. PMID:26111251

  15. Advanced Propagation Model (APM) Version 2.1.04 Computer Software Configuration Item (CSCI) Documents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-02-01

    19 3.1.2.17 Ray Trace ( RAYTRACE ) SU................................................................................ 20 3.1.2.18...NOSC TD 1015, Feb. 1984. Horst, M.M., Dyer, F.B., Tuley, M.T., “ Radar Sea Clutter Model,”, IEEE International Conference on Antennas and Propagation...3.1.2.17 Ray Trace ( RAYTRACE ) SU Using standard ray trace techniques, a ray is traced from a starting height and range with a specified starting

  16. DIVWAG Model Documentation. Volume II. Programmer/Analyst Manual. Part 3. Chapter 7 Through 8.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-07-01

    weapon types q carried by the same trans- port as weapon type i. The model utilizes Gauss -Legendre integration, the 10-point formula, to evaluate... Gauss -Legendre 10-point fohmula. he values of these parameters are specified in Equation IV-7-142e: w 1 0.295524225 ri = 0.148874339 w 2 - 0.269266719...firing of all transports within each unit. The true kill fractions are obtained by Gauss -Legendre inte- gration with the results given in Equation IV

  17. DIVWAG Model Documentation. Volume II. Programmer/Analyst Manual. Part 1.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1976-07-01

    personnel replacement. 3. FUNCTIONAL COMPONENTS AND CAPABILITIES. Functionally the DIVWAG Model is a dual system; it functions physically ...units that are not performing another military activity such as firing, moving, or combat. Whether or not addressed by gamer orders, an inactive gamed...unit will consume classes I and III or IIIA supplies and can be assessed as to losses and status; other units can gain information about the inactive

  18. Use of post-Chernobyl data from Norway to validate the long-term exposure pathway models in the accident consequence code MACCS

    SciTech Connect

    Tveten, U. )

    1994-03-01

    This paper describes a task performed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), consisting of using post-Chernobyl data from Norway to verify or find areas for possible improvement in the chronic exposure pathway models utilized in the NRC's program for probabilistic risk analysis, level 3, of the MELCOR accident consequence code system (MACCS), developed at Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, New Mexico. Because of unfortunate combinations of weather conditions, the levels of Chernobyl fallout in parts of Norway were quite high, with large areas contaminated to more than 100 kBq/m[sup 2] of radioactive cesium. Approximately 6% of the total amount of radioactive cesium released from Chernobyl is deposited on Norwegian territory, according to a countrywide survey performed by the Norwegian National Institute for Radiation Hygiene. Accordingly, a very large monitoring effort was carried out in Norway, and some of the results of this effort have provided important new insights into the ways in which radioactive cesium behaves in the environment. In addition to collection and evaluation of post-Chernobyl monitoring results, some experiments were also performed as part of the task. Some experiments performed pre-Chernobyl were also relevant, and some conclusions could be drawn from these. In most connections, the data available show the models and data in MACCS to be appropriate. A few areas where the data indicate that the MACCS approach is inadequate are, however, also pointed out in the paper.

  19. Nuclear fuel in a reactor accident.

    PubMed

    Burns, Peter C; Ewing, Rodney C; Navrotsky, Alexandra

    2012-03-09

    Nuclear accidents that lead to melting of a reactor core create heterogeneous materials containing hundreds of radionuclides, many with short half-lives. The long-lived fission products and transuranium elements within damaged fuel remain a concern for millennia. Currently, accurate fundamental models for the prediction of release rates of radionuclides from fuel, especially in contact with water, after an accident remain limited. Relatively little is known about fuel corrosion and radionuclide release under the extreme chemical, radiation, and thermal conditions during and subsequent to a nuclear accident. We review the current understanding of nuclear fuel interactions with the environment, including studies over the relatively narrow range of geochemical, hydrological, and radiation environments relevant to geological repository performance, and discuss priorities for research needed to develop future predictive models.

  20. Geochemistry Technical Basis Document

    SciTech Connect

    Benedict, Jr., F. Christopher; Rose, Timothy P.; Thomas, James M.; Waddell, Richard; Jacobson, Roger

    2003-12-01

    This document presents a methodology whereby geochemical data can more effectively contribute to the development , calibration, and verification of groundwater flow and slute transport models for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project.