Science.gov

Sample records for accident risk reduction

  1. Evaluation of severe accident risks and the potential for risk reduction: Surry Power Station, Unit 1: Draft report for comment

    SciTech Connect

    Benjamin, A.S.; Boyd, G.J.; Kunsman, D.M.; Murfin, W.B.; Williams, D.C.

    1987-02-01

    The Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a rebaselining of the risks to the public from a particular pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment (Surry, Unit 1). Emphasis was placed on determining the magnitude and character of the uncertainties, rather than focusing on a point estimate. The risk-reduction potential of a set of proposed safety option backfits was also studied, and their costs and benefits were also evaluated. It was found that the risks from internal events are generally lower than previously evaluated in the Reactor Safety Study (RSS). However, certain unresolved issues (such as direct containment heating) caused the top of the uncertainty band to appear at a level that is comparable with the RSS point estimate. None of the postulated safety options appears to be cost effective for the Surry power plant. This work supports the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's assessment of severe accidents in NUREG-1150.

  2. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Jow, H.N.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D. ); Amos, C.N. ); Helton, J. ); Boyd, G. )

    1992-06-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a point estimate of risk, but to determine the distribution of risk, and to assess the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station. Much of this important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Source Term Panel.

  3. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-11-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  4. Chernobyl accident: A comprehensive risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Vargo, G.J.; Poyarkov, V.; Baryakhtar, V.; Kukhar, V.; Los, I.

    1999-01-01

    The authors, all of whom are Ukrainian and Russian scientists involved with Chernobyl nuclear power plant since the April 1986 accident, present a comprehensive review of the accident. In addition, they present a risk assessment of the remains of the destroyed reactor and its surrounding shelter, Chernobyl radioactive waste storage and disposal sites, and environmental contamination in the region. The authors explore such questions as the risks posed by a collapse of the shelter, radionuclide migration from storage and disposal facilities in the exclusion zone, and transfer from soil to vegetation and its potential regional impact. The answers to these questions provide a scientific basis for the development of countermeasures against the Chernobyl accident in particular and the mitigation of environmental radioactive contamination in general. They also provide an important basis for understanding the human health and ecological risks posed by the accident.

  5. Getting to necessary and sufficient-developing accident scenarios for risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Mahn, J.A.

    1996-05-01

    This paper presents a simple, systematic approach for developing accident scenarios using generic accident types. Result is a necessary and sufficient set of accident scenarios that can be used to establish the safety envelope for a facility or operation. Us of this approach along with the methodology of SAND95-0320 will yield more consistent accident analyses between facilities and provide a sound basis for allocating limited risk reduction resources.

  6. Risk Estimation Methodology for Launch Accidents.

    SciTech Connect

    Clayton, Daniel James; Lipinski, Ronald J.; Bechtel, Ryan D.

    2014-02-01

    As compact and light weight power sources with reliable, long lives, Radioisotope Power Systems (RPSs) have made space missions to explore the solar system possible. Due to the hazardous material that can be released during a launch accident, the potential health risk of an accident must be quantified, so that appropriate launch approval decisions can be made. One part of the risk estimation involves modeling the response of the RPS to potential accident environments. Due to the complexity of modeling the full RPS response deterministically on dynamic variables, the evaluation is performed in a stochastic manner with a Monte Carlo simulation. The potential consequences can be determined by modeling the transport of the hazardous material in the environment and in human biological pathways. The consequence analysis results are summed and weighted by appropriate likelihood values to give a collection of probabilistic results for the estimation of the potential health risk. This information is used to guide RPS designs, spacecraft designs, mission architecture, or launch procedures to potentially reduce the risk, as well as to inform decision makers of the potential health risks resulting from the use of RPSs for space missions.

  7. [Risk assessment expanded accident insurance for children].

    PubMed

    Sittaro, N A

    1998-08-01

    Disability is a well known and tragic event for children. While adults are an established group for specific disability insurance cover, children were often neglected in the past. Although parents, organizations and paediatricans are aware of the risk, children specific incidence rates for disability are hardly available. The only sufficient source for some statistical data are the accident statistics because they represent a substantial group of specific cause related disability for children. Incidence rates for disease related chronic severe impairment or disability in children are either derived by single disease research or actuarial calculation of the German Social Disability Registration. Based on this statistical background, an extended accident insurance for children was introduced in Germany covering both accidents and disabling diseases. The key limitation for all variations of this insurance are exclusion clauses for congential diseases and mental disorders. This insurance requires a new approach in underwriting of the health risks. Because of the substantial number of impaired children, a simple decline of substandard cases are unacceptable. The early experience or medical underwriting shows predominantly health impairments of the following types: allergies, bronchial asthma, ectopic eczema (neurodermitis), disorders of speech and articulation, vision disorders and mental impairments. The suggested solution for underwriting of substandard risks is the predetermination of the possible future maximum degree of disability. The need for underwriting guidelines is supported by the market impact of the new disability cover with thousands of insurance policies issued in the first month after introduction. PMID:9745365

  8. Explaining the road accident risk: weather effects.

    PubMed

    Bergel-Hayat, Ruth; Debbarh, Mohammed; Antoniou, Constantinos; Yannis, George

    2013-11-01

    This research aims to highlight the link between weather conditions and road accident risk at an aggregate level and on a monthly basis, in order to improve road safety monitoring at a national level. It is based on some case studies carried out in Work Package 7 on "Data analysis and synthesis" of the EU-FP6 project "SafetyNet-Building the European Road Safety Observatory", which illustrate the use of weather variables for analysing changes in the number of road injury accidents. Time series analysis models with explanatory variables that measure the weather quantitatively were used and applied to aggregate datasets of injury accidents for France, the Netherlands and the Athens region, over periods of more than 20 years. The main results reveal significant correlations on a monthly basis between weather variables and the aggregate number of injury accidents, but the magnitude and even the sign of these correlations vary according to the type of road (motorways, rural roads or urban roads). Moreover, in the case of the interurban network in France, it appears that the rainfall effect is mainly direct on motorways--exposure being unchanged, and partly indirect on main roads--as a result of changes in exposure. Additional results obtained on a daily basis for the Athens region indicate that capturing the within-the-month variability of the weather variables and including it in a monthly model highlights the effects of extreme weather. Such findings are consistent with previous results obtained for France using a similar approach, with the exception of the negative correlation between precipitation and the number of injury accidents found for the Athens region, which is further investigated. The outlook for the approach and its added value are discussed in the conclusion.

  9. Cumulative Benefit Analysis for Ranking Risk Reduction Actions

    SciTech Connect

    Leverenz, Fred L.; Aysa Jimenez, Julio

    2007-04-25

    The Hazard and Operability (HAZOP) study approach, and other similar methods, are very effective ways to qualitatively identify a comprehensive set of accident scenarios for a facility. If these analyses are modified to incorporate a simple system for evaluating relative risk, such as an order-of-magnitude scoring system, the resultant study can be a very powerful input to developing risk reduction strategies. By adding the concept of Risk Reduction Worth evaluations for all accident Causes, Safeguards, and proposal Action Items, an analyst can then formulate a strategy to select the minimal set of risk reduction actions that maximizes risk reduction. One strategy for doing this involves the iterative evaluation of RRW after postulation of risk reduction actions, until the residual risk reaches a tolerable value, termed Cumulative Risk Benefit Analysis. This concept was developed for the evaluation of a set of pipeline pumping stations, and provided valuable insight into how to reduce risk in a sensible, prioritized fashion.

  10. Evaluation of severe accident risks, Peach Bottom, Unit 2: Main report

    SciTech Connect

    Payne, A.C.; Breeding, R.J.; Jow, H.N.; Shiver, A.W. ); Helton, J.C. ); Smith, L.N. )

    1990-12-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's (NRC's) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SARRP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at the Peach Bottom Atomic Power Station, Unit 2. This power plant, located in southeastern Pennsylvania, is operated by the Philadelphia Electric Company. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a so-called'' point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiated by events both internal and external to the power station were assessed. 39 refs., 174 figs., 133 tabs.

  11. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters. Experts` determination of structural response issues

    SciTech Connect

    Breeding, R.J.; Harper, F.T.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D.; Murfin, W.; Amos, C.N.

    1992-03-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom, and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a ``so-called`` point estimate of risk. Rather, it was to determine the distribution of risk, and to discover the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station were assessed. Much of the important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Structural Response Panel.

  12. [Socioecological determinants of the risk of accidents in young pedestrians].

    PubMed

    Joly, M F; Foggin, P; Pless, I

    1991-01-01

    We studied all traffic accidents to pedestrians under age 15 which occurred on the Island of Montreal during an eighteen months period. Data were collected from eleven hospitals and completed with accident police records. A spatial quadrat analysis, a Comparative Accident Index, and a comparative analysis of the means of different socio-ecological variables between high and low risk accident areas revealed interesting patterns. The location of traffic accidents is not random but rather presents a particular spatial structure. High risk zones are characterized by dense population, fast-moving traffic, and the absence of parks. Accidents often take place on two-way streets, far from traffic lights, on dry surfaces, in good weather, and with good visibility. The socio-economic status of the victim's family as measured by education, income, and unemployment, tends to be low. More boys than girls are victims. Children are often injured while getting out of a car or crossing unconventionally. PMID:1754700

  13. Lymphedema Risk Reduction Practices

    MedlinePlus

    ... and foot hygiene maintained. For arm lymphedema, good hand hygiene and softening the cuticles with proper cuticle moisturizer ... For people at-risk for arm lymphedema, good hand hygiene and softening the cuticles with proper cuticle moisturizer ...

  14. Risk and resilience factors of persons exposed to accidents

    PubMed Central

    HERTA, DANA – CRISTINA; BRÎNDAS, PAULA; TRIFU, RALUCA; COZMAN, DOINA

    2016-01-01

    Background and aims Resilience encompasses factors promoting effective functioning in the context of adversity. Data regarding resilience in the wake of accidental trauma is still scarce. The aim of the current study is to comparatively assess adaptive, life – promoting factors in persons exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. persons exposed to other types of accidents, and to identify psychological factors of resilience and vulnerability in this context of trauma exposure. Methods We assessed 93 participants exposed to accidents out of 305 eligible patients from the Clinical Rehabilitation Hospital and Cluj County Emergency Hospital. The study used Reasons for Living Inventory (RFL) and Life Events Checklist. Scores were comparatively assessed for RFL items, RFL scale and subscales in participants exposed to motor vehicle accidents (MVA) vs. participants exposed to other life – threatening accidents. Results Participants exposed to MVA and those exposed to other accidents had significantly different scores in 7 RFL items. Scores were high in 4 out of 6 RFL subscales for both samples and in most items comprising these subscales, while in the other 2 subscales and in some items comprising them scores were low. Conclusions Low fear of death, physical suffering and social disapproval emerge as risk factors in persons exposed to life – threatening accidents. Love of life, courage in life and hope for the future are important resilience factors after exposure to various types of life – threatening accidents. Survival and active coping beliefs promote resilience especially after motor vehicle accidents. Coping with uncertainty are more likely to foster resilience after other types of life – threatening accidents. Attachment of the accident victim to family promotes resilience mostly after MVA, while perceived attachment of family members to the victim promotes resilience after other types of accidents. PMID:27152078

  15. Perception of risk and the attribution of responsibility for accidents.

    PubMed

    Rickard, Laura N

    2014-03-01

    Accidents, one often hears, "happen"; we accept, and even expect, that they will be part of daily life. But in situations in which injury or death result, judgments of responsibility become critical. How might our perceptions of risk influence the ways in which we allocate responsibility for an accident? Drawing from attribution and risk perception theory, this study investigates how perceived controllability and desirability of risk, in addition to perceived danger and recreational risk-taking, relate to attributions of responsibility for the cause of unintentional injury in a unique setting: U.S. national parks. Three parks, Mount Rainier, Olympic, and Delaware Water Gap, provide the setting for this survey-based study, which considers how park visitors (N = 447) attribute responsibility for the cause of a hypothetical visitor accident. Results suggest that respondents tended to make more internal (i.e., related to characteristics of the victim), rather than external (i.e., related to characteristics of the park, or park management) attributions. As respondents viewed park-related risk as controllable, they were more likely to attribute the cause of the accident to the victim. Moreover, among other significant variables, having experienced a similar accident predicted lower internal causal attribution. Opportunities for future research linking risk perception and attribution variables, as well as practical implications for the management of public outdoor settings, are presented.

  16. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident. PMID:21612010

  17. Importance of risk communication during and after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2011-07-01

    Past nuclear accidents highlight communication as one of the most important challenges in emergency management. In the early phase, communication increases awareness and understanding of protective actions and improves the population response. In the medium and long term, risk communication can facilitate the remediation process and the return to normal life. Mass media play a central role in risk communication. The recent nuclear accident in Japan, as expected, induced massive media coverage. Media were employed to communicate with the public during the contamination phase, and they will play the same important role in the clean-up and recovery phases. However, media also have to fulfill the economic aspects of publishing or broadcasting, with the "bad news is good news" slogan that is a well-known phenomenon in journalism. This article addresses the main communication challenges and suggests possible risk communication approaches to adopt in the case of a nuclear accident.

  18. Quality function deployment applied to local traffic accident reduction.

    PubMed

    Sohn, S Y

    1999-11-01

    One of the major tasks of police stations is the management of local road traffic accidents. Proper prevention policy which reflects the local accident characteristics could immensely help individual police stations in decreasing various severity levels of road traffic accidents. In order to relate accident variation to local driving environmental characteristics, we use both cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The fitted result at the level of each cluster for each type of accident severity is utilized as an input to quality function deployment. Quality function deployment (QFD) has been applied to customer satisfaction in various industrial quality improvement settings, where several types of customer requirements are related to various control factors. We show how QFD enables one to set priorities on various road accident control policies to which each police station has to pay particular attention.

  19. Quality function deployment applied to local traffic accident reduction.

    PubMed

    Sohn, S Y

    1999-11-01

    One of the major tasks of police stations is the management of local road traffic accidents. Proper prevention policy which reflects the local accident characteristics could immensely help individual police stations in decreasing various severity levels of road traffic accidents. In order to relate accident variation to local driving environmental characteristics, we use both cluster analysis and Poisson regression. The fitted result at the level of each cluster for each type of accident severity is utilized as an input to quality function deployment. Quality function deployment (QFD) has been applied to customer satisfaction in various industrial quality improvement settings, where several types of customer requirements are related to various control factors. We show how QFD enables one to set priorities on various road accident control policies to which each police station has to pay particular attention. PMID:10487350

  20. Minimizing Accidents and Risks in High Adventure Outdoor Pursuits.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meier, Joel

    The fundamental dilemma in adventure programming is eliminating unreasonable risks to participants without also reducing levels of excitement, challenge, and stress. Most accidents are caused by a combination of unsafe conditions, unsafe acts, and error judgments. The best and only way to minimize critical human error in adventure programs is…

  1. Limitations of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Spencer, Michael B; Carter, Tim; Nicholson, Anthony N

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of risk analysis in the determination of medical factors in road vehicle accidents is to evaluate the risks that are associated with different strategies for accident reduction, so that the subsequent decision making process can be based on a best assessment of the likely benefits. However, it is vital to appreciate the limitations of such an approach, especially where the conclusions depend heavily on the accuracy of the assumptions made. In this paper the assumptions used in some recent analyses concerned with incapacitation, epilepsy, hypoglycaemia and psycho-active medication are explored, and the additional information required to reduce the uncertainty in the estimation of risk indicated. The conclusions from this analysis do not invalidate the use of risk assessment, but draw attention to its limitations and show how a sensitivity analysis can help to identify those areas where more precise information is needed before such an approach can be used confidently in a policy setting. PMID:14998267

  2. Reduction of police vehicle accidents through mechaniically aided supervision

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Lynn D.; Schnelle, John F.; Kirchner, Robert; Carr, Adam F.; Domash, Michele; Risley, Todd R.

    1980-01-01

    Tachograph recorders were installed in 224 vehicles of a metropolitan police department to monitor vehicle operation in an attempt to reduce the rate of accidents. Police sergeants reviewed each tachograph chart and provided feedback to officers regarding their driving performance. Reliability checks and additional feedback procedures were implemented so that upper level supervisors monitored and controlled the performance of field sergeants. The tachograph intervention and components of the feedback system nearly eliminated personal injury accidents and sharply reduced accidents caused by officer negligence. A cost-benefit analysis revealed that the savings in vehicle repair and injury claims outweighed the equipment and operating costs. PMID:16795634

  3. Accident Precursor Analysis and Management: Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Phimister, James R. (Editor); Bier, Vicki M. (Editor); Kunreuther, Howard C. (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    Almost every year there is at least one technological disaster that highlights the challenge of managing technological risk. On February 1, 2003, the space shuttle Columbia and her crew were lost during reentry into the atmosphere. In the summer of 2003, there was a blackout that left millions of people in the northeast United States without electricity. Forensic analyses, congressional hearings, investigations by scientific boards and panels, and journalistic and academic research have yielded a wealth of information about the events that led up to each disaster, and questions have arisen. Why were the events that led to the accident not recognized as harbingers? Why were risk-reducing steps not taken? This line of questioning is based on the assumption that signals before an accident can and should be recognized. To examine the validity of this assumption, the National Academy of Engineering (NAE) undertook the Accident Precursors Project in February 2003. The project was overseen by a committee of experts from the safety and risk-sciences communities. Rather than examining a single accident or incident, the committee decided to investigate how different organizations anticipate and assess the likelihood of accidents from accident precursors. The project culminated in a workshop held in Washington, D.C., in July 2003. This report includes the papers presented at the workshop, as well as findings and recommendations based on the workshop results and committee discussions. The papers describe precursor strategies in aviation, the chemical industry, health care, nuclear power and security operations. In addition to current practices, they also address some areas for future research.

  4. Software for Probabilistic Risk Reduction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hensley, Scott; Michel, Thierry; Madsen, Soren; Chapin, Elaine; Rodriguez, Ernesto

    2004-01-01

    A computer program implements a methodology, denoted probabilistic risk reduction, that is intended to aid in planning the development of complex software and/or hardware systems. This methodology integrates two complementary prior methodologies: (1) that of probabilistic risk assessment and (2) a risk-based planning methodology, implemented in a prior computer program known as Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP), in which multiple requirements and the beneficial effects of risk-mitigation actions are taken into account. The present methodology and the software are able to accommodate both process knowledge (notably of the efficacy of development practices) and product knowledge (notably of the logical structure of a system, the development of which one seeks to plan). Estimates of the costs and benefits of a planned development can be derived. Functional and non-functional aspects of software can be taken into account, and trades made among them. It becomes possible to optimize the planning process in the sense that it becomes possible to select the best suite of process steps and design choices to maximize the expectation of success while remaining within budget.

  5. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters: MAACS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) input

    SciTech Connect

    Sprung, J.L.; Jow, H-N ); Rollstin, J.A. ); Helton, J.C. )

    1990-12-01

    Estimation of offsite accident consequences is the customary final step in a probabilistic assessment of the risks of severe nuclear reactor accidents. Recently, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission reassessed the risks of severe accidents at five US power reactors (NUREG-1150). Offsite accident consequences for NUREG-1150 source terms were estimated using the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Before these calculations were performed, most MACCS input parameters were reviewed, and for each parameter reviewed, a best-estimate value was recommended. This report presents the results of these reviews. Specifically, recommended values and the basis for their selection are presented for MACCS atmospheric and biospheric transport, emergency response, food pathway, and economic input parameters. Dose conversion factors and health effect parameters are not reviewed in this report. 134 refs., 15 figs., 110 tabs.

  6. Robust Derivation of Risk Reduction Strategies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Richardson, Julian; Port, Daniel; Feather, Martin

    2007-01-01

    Effective risk reduction strategies can be derived mechanically given sufficient characterization of the risks present in the system and the effectiveness of available risk reduction techniques. In this paper, we address an important question: can we reliably expect mechanically derived risk reduction strategies to be better than fixed or hand-selected risk reduction strategies, given that the quantitative assessment of risks and risk reduction techniques upon which mechanical derivation is based is difficult and likely to be inaccurate? We consider this question relative to two methods for deriving effective risk reduction strategies: the strategic method defined by Kazman, Port et al [Port et al, 2005], and the Defect Detection and Prevention (DDP) tool [Feather & Cornford, 2003]. We performed a number of sensitivity experiments to evaluate how inaccurate knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques affect the performance of the strategies computed by the Strategic Method compared to a variety of alternative strategies. The experimental results indicate that strategies computed by the Strategic Method were significantly more effective than the alternative risk reduction strategies, even when knowledge of risk and risk reduction techniques was very inaccurate. The robustness of the Strategic Method suggests that its use should be considered in a wide range of projects.

  7. RISK REDUCTION FOR MATERIAL ACCOUNTABILITY UPGRADES.

    SciTech Connect

    FISHBONE, L.G.; SISKIND, B.

    2005-05-16

    We present in this paper a method for evaluating explicitly the contribution of nuclear material accountability upgrades to risk reduction at nuclear facilities. The method yields the same types of values for conditional risk reduction that physical protection and material control upgrades yield. Thereby, potential material accountability upgrades can be evaluated for implementation in the same way that protection and control upgrades are evaluated.

  8. Risk assessment of maintenance operations: the analysis of performing task and accident mechanism.

    PubMed

    Carrillo-Castrillo, Jesús A; Rubio-Romero, Juan Carlos; Guadix, Jose; Onieva, Luis

    2015-01-01

    Maintenance operations cover a great number of occupations. Most small and medium-sized enterprises lack the appropriate information to conduct risk assessments of maintenance operations. The objective of this research is to provide a method based on the concepts of task and accident mechanisms for an initial risk assessment by taking into consideration the prevalence and severity of the maintenance accidents reported. Data were gathered from 11,190 reported accidents in maintenance operations in the manufacturing sector of Andalusia from 2003 to 2012. By using a semi-quantitative methodology, likelihood and severity were evaluated based on the actual distribution of accident mechanisms in each of the tasks. Accident mechanisms and tasks were identified by using those variables included in the European Statistics of Accidents at Work methodology. As main results, the estimated risk of the most frequent accident mechanisms identified for each of the analysed tasks is low and the only accident mechanisms with medium risk are accidents when lifting or pushing with physical stress on the musculoskeletal system in tasks involving carrying, and impacts against objects after slipping or stumbling for tasks involving movements. The prioritisation of public preventive actions for the accident mechanisms with a higher estimated risk is highly recommended.

  9. [Risk-taking behavior and accidents in adolescence in developed countries].

    PubMed

    Tursz, A; Courtecuisse, V; Jeanneret, O; Sand, A

    1986-01-01

    Injuries due to accidents are the primary cause of fatalities among adolescents. Between the ages of 10 and 19, mortality caused by accidents augments significantly, and there is an excess of male mortality, increasing with age. This mortality has remained virtually unchanged over the past 25 years, except for a small narrowing of rate differences by sex. Traffic accidents, particularly those involving motorcycles, are the leading cause of accident fatalities. Though not easily assessed, morbidity due to accidents is probably very high, especially among males. Sports accidents are the most frequent. Adolescents appear to be particularly exposed to some risks, but also tend to be careless about safety. Risk-taking is a source of rewards: pleasure, self-affirmation, sense of independence; but it is described by some authors as self-destructiveness, death from accidents reflecting suicidal tendencies. Paradoxical results of prevention have been observed in this age group.

  10. Industrial Accidents Triggered by Natural Hazards: an Emerging Risk Issue

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Renni, Elisabetta; Krausmann, Elisabeth; Basco, Anna; Salzano, Ernesto; Cozzani, Valerio

    2010-05-01

    Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, flooding or hurricanes have recently and dramatically hit several countries worldwide. Both direct and indirect consequences involved the population, causing on the one hand a high number of fatalities and on the other hand so relevant economical losses that the national gross product may be affected for many years. Loss of critical industrial infrastructures (electricity generation and distribution, gas pipelines, oil refineries, etc.) also occurred, causing further indirect damage to the population. In several cases, accident scenarios with large releases of hazardous materials were triggered by these natural events, causing so-called "Natech events", in which the overall damage resulted from the simultaneous consequences of the natural event and of the release of hazardous substances. Toxic releases, large fires and explosions, as well as possible long-term environmental pollution, economical losses, and overloading of emergency systems were recognised by post-event studies as the main issues of these Natech scenarios. In recent years the increasing frequency and severity of some natural hazards due to climate change has slowly increased the awareness of Natech risk as an emerging risk among the stakeholders. Indeed, the iNTeg-Risk project, co-funded by the European Commission within the 7th Framework Program specifically addresses these scenarios among new technological issues on public safety. The present study, in part carried out within the iNTeg-Risk project, was aimed at the analysis and further development of methods and tools for the assessment and mitigation of Natech accidents. Available tools and knowledge gaps in the assessment of Natech scenarios were highlighted. The analysis mainly addressed the potential impact of flood, lightning and earthquake events on industrial installations where hazardous substances are present. Preliminary screening methodologies and more detailed methods based on

  11. Cerebrovascular accidents in sickle cell disease: rates and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Ohene-Frempong, K; Weiner, S J; Sleeper, L A; Miller, S T; Embury, S; Moohr, J W; Wethers, D L; Pegelow, C H; Gill, F M

    1998-01-01

    Cerebrovascular accident (CVA) is a major complication of sickle cell disease. The incidence and mortality of and risk factors for CVA in sickle cell disease patients in the United States have been reported only in small patient samples. The Cooperative Study of Sickle Cell Disease collected clinical data on 4,082 sickle cell disease patients enrolled from 1978 to 1988. Patients were followed for an average of 5.2 +/- 2.0 years. Age-specific prevalence and incidence rates of CVA in patients with the common genotypes of sickle cell disease were determined, and the effects of hematologic and clinical events on the risk of CVA were analyzed. The highest rates of prevalence of CVA (4.01%) and incidence (0.61 per 100 patient-years) were in sickle cell anemia (SS) patients, but CVA occurred in all common genotypes. The incidence of infarctive CVA was lowest in SS patients 20 to 29 years of age and higher in children and older patients. Conversely, the incidence of hemorrhagic stroke in SS patients was highest among patients aged 20 to 29 years. Across all ages the mortality rate was 26% in the 2 weeks after hemorrhagic stroke. No deaths occurred after infarctive stroke. Risk factors for infarctive stroke included prior transient ischemic attack, low steady-state hemoglobin concentration and rate of and recent episode of acute chest syndrome, and elevated systolic blood pressure. Hemorrhagic stroke was associated with low steady-state hemoglobin and high leukocyte count.

  12. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Quantification of major input parameters. Experts` determination of source term issues: Volume 2, Revision 1, Part 4

    SciTech Connect

    Harper, F.T.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Gregory, J.J.; Jow, H.N.; Payne, A.C.; Gorham, E.D.; Amos, C.N.; Helton, J.; Boyd, G.

    1992-06-01

    In support of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission`s (NRC`s) assessment of the risk from severe accidents at commercial nuclear power plants in the US reported in NUREG-1150, the Severe Accident Risk Reduction Program (SAARP) has completed a revised calculation of the risk to the general public from severe accidents at five nuclear power plants: Surry, Sequoyah, Zion, Peach Bottom and Grand Gulf. The emphasis in this risk analysis was not on determining a point estimate of risk, but to determine the distribution of risk, and to assess the uncertainties that account for the breadth of this distribution. Off-site risk initiation by events, both internal to the power station and external to the power station. Much of this important input to the logic models was generated by expert panels. This document presents the distributions and the rationale supporting the distributions for the questions posed to the Source Term Panel.

  13. Hypertriglyceridemia and Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Elevated triglyceride (TG) levels are prevalent among the US population, often occurring in persons who are overweight or obese, or who have type 2 diabetes or the metabolic syndrome. Meta-analysis indicates that elevated TG levels may be a significant independent risk factor for coronary heart dise...

  14. Cardiovascular Risk Reduction in Children.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Murray, David M.; And Others

    1987-01-01

    The paper presents a community model for reducing the risk of coronary heart disease in children and youth. The model addresses the individual, the family, social groups, and the larger social and physical environments. Exemplary programs are described and recommendations are made for additional research and program development. (Author/DB)

  15. The contributions of sleep-related risk factors to diurnal car accidents.

    PubMed

    Lucidi, Fabio; Mallia, Luca; Violani, Cristiano; Giustiniani, Gabriele; Persia, Luca

    2013-03-01

    This study was intended to estimate the presence and number of individual sleep-related risk factors in a sample of diurnal car accidents and to analyze the extent to which these risk factors tended to be more represented in diurnal accidents involving only one vehicle, involving young drivers or occurring on non-urban roads. Two hundred fifty-three drivers involved in diurnal accidents were interviewed immediately after the accidents to assess their sleepiness-related personal conditions and the circumstances prior to the accident (i.e., individual sleep-related risk factors), such as poor sleep, changes in habitual sleeping patterns, prolonged wakefulness, self-reported acute sleepiness and daytime sleepiness, night-shift jobs and insomnia. A total of 12.3% of the drivers were classified as having at least one of the seven risk factors assessed in the study, supporting the general notion that drivers' sleepiness conditions are crucial, even in diurnal driving circumstances in which they are less likely to depend on chrono-biological processes. Furthermore, consistent with the guiding hypotheses, specific sleep-related risk factors were more evident in single (vs. multiple) car accidents, among young drivers and in car accidents occurring on non-urban roads. In summary, sleep-related risk factors seemed to have a negative impact on drivers' safety in circumstances of diurnal driving, especially when the accidents involved young individuals and occurred on non-urban roads. PMID:23246705

  16. The contributions of sleep-related risk factors to diurnal car accidents.

    PubMed

    Lucidi, Fabio; Mallia, Luca; Violani, Cristiano; Giustiniani, Gabriele; Persia, Luca

    2013-03-01

    This study was intended to estimate the presence and number of individual sleep-related risk factors in a sample of diurnal car accidents and to analyze the extent to which these risk factors tended to be more represented in diurnal accidents involving only one vehicle, involving young drivers or occurring on non-urban roads. Two hundred fifty-three drivers involved in diurnal accidents were interviewed immediately after the accidents to assess their sleepiness-related personal conditions and the circumstances prior to the accident (i.e., individual sleep-related risk factors), such as poor sleep, changes in habitual sleeping patterns, prolonged wakefulness, self-reported acute sleepiness and daytime sleepiness, night-shift jobs and insomnia. A total of 12.3% of the drivers were classified as having at least one of the seven risk factors assessed in the study, supporting the general notion that drivers' sleepiness conditions are crucial, even in diurnal driving circumstances in which they are less likely to depend on chrono-biological processes. Furthermore, consistent with the guiding hypotheses, specific sleep-related risk factors were more evident in single (vs. multiple) car accidents, among young drivers and in car accidents occurring on non-urban roads. In summary, sleep-related risk factors seemed to have a negative impact on drivers' safety in circumstances of diurnal driving, especially when the accidents involved young individuals and occurred on non-urban roads.

  17. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents. PMID:26433361

  18. Risk analysis of emergent water pollution accidents based on a Bayesian Network.

    PubMed

    Tang, Caihong; Yi, Yujun; Yang, Zhifeng; Sun, Jie

    2016-01-01

    To guarantee the security of water quality in water transfer channels, especially in open channels, analysis of potential emergent pollution sources in the water transfer process is critical. It is also indispensable for forewarnings and protection from emergent pollution accidents. Bridges above open channels with large amounts of truck traffic are the main locations where emergent accidents could occur. A Bayesian Network model, which consists of six root nodes and three middle layer nodes, was developed in this paper, and was employed to identify the possibility of potential pollution risk. Dianbei Bridge is reviewed as a typical bridge on an open channel of the Middle Route of the South to North Water Transfer Project where emergent traffic accidents could occur. Risk of water pollutions caused by leakage of pollutants into water is focused in this study. The risk for potential traffic accidents at the Dianbei Bridge implies a risk for water pollution in the canal. Based on survey data, statistical analysis, and domain specialist knowledge, a Bayesian Network model was established. The human factor of emergent accidents has been considered in this model. Additionally, this model has been employed to describe the probability of accidents and the risk level. The sensitive reasons for pollution accidents have been deduced. The case has also been simulated that sensitive factors are in a state of most likely to lead to accidents.

  19. Risk Factors for Accident Death in the U.S. Army, 2004–2009

    PubMed Central

    Lewandowski-Romps, Lisa; Peterson, Christopher; Berglund, Patricia A.; Collins, Stacey; Cox, Kenneth; Hauret, Keith; Jones, Bruce; Kessler, Ronald C.; Mitchell, Colter; Park, Nansook; Schoenbaum, Michael; Stein, Murray B.; Ursano, Robert J.; Heeringa, Steven G.

    2014-01-01

    Background Accidents are one of the leading causes of death among U.S. active duty Army soldiers. Evidence-based approaches to injury prevention could be strengthened by adding person-level characteristics (e.g., demographics) to risk models tested on diverse soldier samples studied over time. Purpose To identify person-level risk indicators of accident deaths in Regular Army soldiers during a time frame of intense military operations, and to discriminate risk of not-line-of-duty (NLOD) from line-of-duty (LOD) accident deaths. Methods Administrative data acquired from multiple Army/Department of Defense sources for active duty Army soldiers during 2004–2009 were analyzed in 2013. Logistic regression modeling was used to identify person-level sociodemographic, service-related, occupational, and mental health predictors of accident deaths. Results Delayed rank progression or demotion and being male, unmarried, in a combat arms specialty, and of low rank/service length increased odds of accident death for enlisted soldiers. Unique to officers was high risk associated with aviation specialties. Accident death risk decreased over time for currently deployed, enlisted soldiers while increasing for those never deployed. Mental health diagnosis was associated with risk only for previous and never-deployed, enlisted soldiers. Models did not discriminate NLOD from LOD accident deaths. Conclusions Adding more refined person-level and situational risk indicators to current models could enhance understanding of accident death risk specific to soldier rank and deployment status. Stable predictors could help identify high risk of accident deaths in future cohorts of Regular Army soldiers. PMID:25441238

  20. [Risk factors for accidents during sports while serving in German armed forces].

    PubMed

    Gundlach, N; Sammito, S; Böckelmann, I

    2012-03-01

    In the German Armed Forces sports activities should bring the benefits of good health and trained fitness which are the hallmarks of sportsmen. In order to achieve this aim it is important to avoid accidents which negate the benefit of sports. Until today there appear to be no studies in existence which demonstrate the risk factors of sports activities undertaken while in military service. Equivalent studies on civilian sport activities are scarcely comparable. To find out risk factors for accidents with any period of recovery we followed sports accidents while on duty in a German barracks with 4,300 soldiers over a two-year period. Additionally we asked about the time needed for recovery from each accident, parameters of lifestyle, the body mass index and the possibility of a nightshift before each accident. We examined a minimum of 410 accidents. We found associations between the accidents studied and particular risk factors, including doing sports more than two times a week, being active in a fitness or sports club, having the accident together with another sportsman and doing a nightshift before the day of the accident. Bad ground conditions contributed to a large number of accidents. A body mass index of 25 and higher had a significantly prolonged time for recovery. To avoid accidents, sport and ground conditions should be adapted to each other. In addition, overweight people are not only compromised for cardiovascular and neurological diseases but also have a higher risk of needing a prolonged time for recovery, thus it is important that overweight should be avoided and not only just be treated.

  1. A comparative analysis of accident risks in fossil, hydro, and nuclear energy chains

    SciTech Connect

    Burgherr, P.; Hirschberg, S.

    2008-07-01

    This study presents a comparative assessment of severe accident risks in the energy sector, based on the historical experience of fossil (coal, oil, natural gas, and LPG (Liquefied Petroleum Gas)) and hydro chains contained in the comprehensive Energy-related Severe Accident Database (ENSAD), as well as Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) for the nuclear chain. Full energy chains were considered because accidents can take place at every stage of the chain. Comparative analyses for the years 1969-2000 included a total of 1870 severe ({>=} 5 fatalities) accidents, amounting to 81,258 fatalities. Although 79.1% of all accidents and 88.9% of associated fatalities occurred in less developed, non-OECD countries, industrialized OECD countries dominated insured losses (78.0%), reflecting their substantially higher insurance density and stricter safety regulations. Aggregated indicators and frequency-consequence (F-N) curves showed that energy-related accident risks in non-OECD countries are distinctly higher than in OECD countries. Hydropower in non-OECD countries and upstream stages within fossil energy chains are most accident-prone. Expected fatality rates are lowest for Western hydropower and nuclear power plants; however, the maximum credible consequences can be very large. Total economic damages due to severe accidents are substantial, but small when compared with natural disasters. Similarly, external costs associated with severe accidents are generally much smaller than monetized damages caused by air pollution.

  2. Risk assessment and national measure plan for oil and HNS spill accidents near Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2013-08-15

    Many oil and HNS spill accidents occur in the waters surrounding the Korean Peninsula because Korea is one of the biggest trading partners in the world. In this study, we analyzed the oil and HNS spill accidents that occurred between 1994 and 2005 and created risk matrices to assess these accidents. The worst scenarios of future oil and HNS spill accidents were established, and the maximum spill amounts were estimated using historic accident data and a correlation from IPIECA. The maximum spill amounts are estimated to be between 77,000 and 10,000 tons of oil and HNS, respectively. One third of the spill materials should be removed using recovery equipment within three days of the spill event, according to the national measure plan. The capability of recovery equipment to remove spill materials can be estimated, and the equipment should then be prepared to mitigate the harmful effects of future oil and HNS accidents on humans and marine ecosystems.

  3. Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

    SciTech Connect

    Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

    1989-11-01

    A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

  4. [Health protection after the Chernobyl accident. The relation of costs and reduction of radioactive dosage level].

    PubMed

    Strand, P; Reitan, J B; Harbitz, O; Brynildsen, L

    1990-01-30

    This article describes the nutritional measures introduced to protect health after the Chernobyl accident, and the associated costs. The total value of the reindeer meat, mutton, lamb and goat meat saved as a result of such measures in 1987 amounted to approx. NOK 250 million. The measures cost approx. NOK 60 million. The resulting reduction in the radiation dose level to which the population was exposed was 450 manSv. In 1988, mutton/lamb and goat meat valued at approx. NOK 310 million was saved from condemnation by similar measures, which cost approx. NOK 50 million. The resulting dose level reduction was approx. 200 manSv. The relationship (cost/benefit ratio) between the overall cost of the measures taken to reduce radioactivity levels in food and the dose level reduction achieved was acceptable.

  5. Child Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lopez, Yany; Hayden, Jacqueline; Cologon, Kathy; Hadley, Fay

    2012-01-01

    It has been shown that child participation can have positive results in the rescue, relief and rehabilitation phases of a disaster. Currently child participation is achieving increased attention as a component of disaster risk reduction (DRR). This paper examines the ongoing dialogues on child participation and reviews pertinent literature…

  6. 76 FR 40320 - Risk Reduction Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-08

    ... requested public comment on a potential risk reduction rulemaking. See 75 FR 76345-76351, Dec. 8, 2010. A.... See 49 CFR 1.49(oo); 74 FR 26981 (June 5, 2009); see also 49 U.S.C. 103(g). Each railroad subject to... upon the RSIA's requirements. See 75 FR 76345-76351. The ANPRM discussed certain major components...

  7. 75 FR 76345 - Risk Reduction Program

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-12-08

    ... Secretary has since delegated those responsibilities to the FRA Administrator. See 49 CFR 1.49(oo); 74 FR... disorders. Effects on employee fatigue of an employee's short-term or sustained response to emergency.... Overall, a risk reduction approach could help railroads, FRA, and labor organizations learn how...

  8. Guidelines for Exposure Assessment in Health Risk Studies Following a Nuclear Reactor Accident

    PubMed Central

    Bouville, André; Linet, Martha S.; Hatch, Maureen; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko

    2013-01-01

    Background: Worldwide concerns regarding health effects after the Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents indicate a clear need to identify short- and long-term health impacts that might result from accidents in the future. Fundamental to addressing this problem are reliable and accurate radiation dose estimates for the affected populations. The available guidance for activities following nuclear accidents is limited with regard to strategies for dose assessment in health risk studies. Objectives: Here we propose a comprehensive systematic approach to estimating radiation doses for the evaluation of health risks resulting from a nuclear power plant accident, reflected in a set of seven guidelines. Discussion: Four major nuclear reactor accidents have occurred during the history of nuclear power production. The circumstances leading to these accidents were varied, as were the magnitude of the releases of radioactive materials, the pathways by which persons were exposed, the data collected afterward, and the lifestyle factors and dietary consumption that played an important role in the associated radiation exposure of the affected populations. Accidents involving nuclear reactors may occur in the future under a variety of conditions. The guidelines we recommend here are intended to facilitate obtaining reliable dose estimations for a range of different exposure conditions. We recognize that full implementation of the proposed approach may not always be feasible because of other priorities during the nuclear accident emergency and because of limited resources in manpower and equipment. Conclusions: The proposed approach can serve as a basis to optimize the value of radiation dose reconstruction following a nuclear reactor accident. Citation: Bouville A, Linet MS, Hatch M, Mabuchi K, Simon SL. 2014. Guidelines for exposure assessment in health risk studies following a nuclear reactor accident. Environ Health Perspect 122:1–5; http://dx.doi.org/10

  9. Risk factors and musculoskeletal injuries associated with all-terrain vehicle accidents.

    PubMed

    Balthrop, Paul M; Nyland, John; Roberts, Craig S

    2009-02-01

    Accidents, injuries, and deaths sustained via all-terrain vehicle (ATV) use are on the rise. In addition to safe and proper ATV operation, accident-related risk factors include operator controllable behaviors such as helmet use, alcohol use, and deciding whether or not to carry a passenger. What the operator has little or no control over, however, is the inherently unstable ATV design with its narrow wheelbase, short turning radius, and high center of gravity, in addition to common use of low tire pressure to maximize maneuverability. These factors lead to musculoskeletal injuries that consist predominantly of extremity fractures, primarily through rollover events. There is a need for improved ATV operator safety education and more stringent regulations. The purpose of this review is to identify the accident and injury risk factors associated with ATV operation and to compare them with bicycle and motorcycle accident and injury risk factors to enable emergency medical professionals to develop better patient management and injury prevention strategies.

  10. Outcome of psychoeducation for HIV risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Malow, R M; West, J A; Corrigan, S A; Pena, J M; Cunningham, S C

    1994-04-01

    Our objectives were to assess the effects of a psychoeducational (PE) program designed to reduce HIV risk behaviors in recovering drug abusers and to evaluate mediating variables associated with risk reduction as described by the AIDS Risk Reduction Model (ARRM). Consecutive admissions to a Department of Veterans Affairs drug dependence inpatient treatment program (n = 152) were randomly assigned to PE or a standard information (INFO) condition. PE involved a 6-hour small group intervention designed to enhance knowledge and attitudes regarding HIV prevention, improve skills in condom use and needle sterilization, and modify high-risk sex- and drug-related behaviors. The INFO condition involved presentation of audiovisual and printed HIV prevention material with similar content. Following intervention, PE subjects showed significantly enhanced self-efficacy, condom use skills, and sexual communication skills relative to the INFO group. At 3-month follow-up, the PE group showed significantly greater reductions on some measures of sexual HIV risk behaviors relative to the INFO group. Hypotheses derived from the ARRM regarding presumed relationships between positive changes in mediating variables (e.g., self-efficacy and sexual communication) and ultimate outcome variables (e.g., condom use) were supported.

  11. Assessment of the risk due to release of carbon fiber in civil aircraft accidents, phase 2

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pocinki, L.; Cornell, M. E.; Kaplan, L.

    1980-01-01

    The risk associated with the potential use of carbon fiber composite material in commercial jet aircraft is investigated. A simulation model developed to generate risk profiles for several airports is described. The risk profiles show the probability that the cost due to accidents in any year exceeds a given amount. The computer model simulates aircraft accidents with fire, release of fibers, their downwind transport and infiltration of buildings, equipment failures, and resulting ecomomic impact. The individual airport results were combined to yield the national risk profile.

  12. Risk Communication as a Tool for Training Apprentice Welders: A Study about Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Bonow, Clarice Alves; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; de Almeida, Marlise Capa Verde; Severo, Luana de Oliveira; Borges, Anelise Miritz; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Turik, Claudia

    2012-01-01

    The present study has aimed to identify the perceptions of apprentice welders about physical, chemical, biological, and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed; identify types of occupational accidents involving apprentice welders; and report the development of a socioenvironmental education intervention as a tool for risk communication for apprentice welders. A quantitative study was performed with 161 apprentice welders in Southern Brazil in 2011. Data collection was performed via structured interviews with the apprentice welders about risk perception, occupational accidents, and time experienced in welding. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: physical (96.9%), chemical (95%), physiological (86.3%), and biological (51.5%). In this sample, 39.7% of apprentice welders reported occupational accidents and 27.3% reported burning. The inferential analysis showed that the frequency of risk perception factors increases with the length of experience, and apprentice welders who have experienced accidents during welding activity perceive a higher amount of risk factors than those who have never experienced them. It is concluded that apprentice welders perceive risks and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their activity. PMID:23326211

  13. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8 % of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  14. Analysis of Surface Water Pollution Accidents in China: Characteristics and Lessons for Risk Management.

    PubMed

    Yao, Hong; Zhang, Tongzhu; Liu, Bo; Lu, Feng; Fang, Shurong; You, Zhen

    2016-04-01

    Understanding historical accidents is important for accident prevention and risk mitigation; however, there are no public databases of pollution accidents in China, and no detailed information regarding such incidents is readily available. Thus, 653 representative cases of surface water pollution accidents in China were identified and described as a function of time, location, materials involved, origin, and causes. The severity and other features of the accidents, frequency and quantities of chemicals involved, frequency and number of people poisoned, frequency and number of people affected, frequency and time for which pollution lasted, and frequency and length of pollution zone were effectively used to value and estimate the accumulated probabilities. The probabilities of occurrences of various types based on origin and causes were also summarized based on these observations. The following conclusions can be drawn from these analyses: (1) There was a high proportion of accidents involving multi-district boundary regions and drinking water crises, indicating that more attention should be paid to environmental risk prevention and the mitigation of such incidents. (2) A high proportion of accidents originated from small-sized chemical plants, indicating that these types of enterprises should be considered during policy making. (3) The most common cause (49.8% of the total) was intentional acts (illegal discharge); accordingly, efforts to increase environmental consciousness in China should be enhanced.

  15. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer.

  16. Radiation Exposure and Thyroid Cancer Risk After the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident in Comparison with the Chernobyl Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S; Takamura, N; Ohtsuru, A; Suzuki, S

    2016-09-01

    The actual implementation of the epidemiological study on human health risk from low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposure and the comprehensive long-term radiation health effects survey are important especially after radiological and nuclear accidents because of public fear and concern about the long-term health effects of low-dose radiation exposure have increased considerably. Since the Great East Japan earthquake and the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan, Fukushima Prefecture has started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project for the purpose of long-term health care administration and medical early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Especially on a basis of the lessons learned from the Chernobyl accident, both thyroid examination and mental health care are critically important irrespective of the level of radiation exposure. There are considerable differences between Chernobyl and Fukushima regarding radiation dose to the public, and it is very difficult to estimate retrospectively internal exposure dose from the short-lived radioactive iodines. Therefore, the necessity of thyroid ultrasound examination in Fukushima and the intermediate results of this survey targeting children will be reviewed and discussed in order to avoid any misunderstanding or misinterpretation of the high detection rate of childhood thyroid cancer. PMID:27473699

  17. Failure detection system risk reduction assessment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Aguilar, Robert B. (Inventor); Huang, Zhaofeng (Inventor)

    2012-01-01

    A process includes determining a probability of a failure mode of a system being analyzed reaching a failure limit as a function of time to failure limit, determining a probability of a mitigation of the failure mode as a function of a time to failure limit, and quantifying a risk reduction based on the probability of the failure mode reaching the failure limit and the probability of the mitigation.

  18. Application of Latin hypercube sampling to RADTRAN 4 truck accident risk sensitivity analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Mills, G.S.; Neuhauser, K.S.; Kanipe, F.L.

    1994-12-31

    The sensitivity of calculated dose estimates to various RADTRAN 4 inputs is an available output for incident-free analysis because the defining equations are linear and sensitivity to each variable can be calculated in closed mathematical form. However, the necessary linearity is not characteristic of the equations used in calculation of accident dose risk, making a similar tabulation of sensitivity for RADTRAN 4 accident analysis impossible. Therefore, a study of sensitivity of accident risk results to variation of input parameters was performed using representative routes, isotopic inventories, and packagings. It was determined that, of the approximately two dozen RADTRAN 4 input parameters pertinent to accident analysis, only a subset of five or six has significant influence on typical analyses or is subject to random uncertainties. These five or six variables were selected as candidates for Latin Hypercube Sampling applications. To make the effect of input uncertainties on calculated accident risk more explicit, distributions and limits were determined for two variables which had approximately proportional effects on calculated doses: Pasquill Category probability (PSPROB) and link population density (LPOPD). These distributions and limits were used as input parameters to Sandia`s Latin Hypercube Sampling code to generate 50 sets of RADTRAN 4 input parameters used together with point estimates of other necessary inputs to calculate 50 observations of estimated accident dose risk.Tabulations of the RADTRAN 4 accident risk input variables and their influence on output plus illustrative examples of the LHS calculations, for truck transport situations that are typical of past experience, will be presented .

  19. Trends in state-level freight accident rates: An enhancement of risk factor development for RADTRAN

    SciTech Connect

    Saricks, C.; Kvitek, T.

    1991-01-01

    Under the Nuclear Waste Policy Act, the Department of Energy's Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) is concerned with understanding and managing risk as it applies to the shipment of spent commercial nuclear reactor fuel. Understanding risk in relation to mode and geography may provide opportunities to minimize radiological and non-radiological risks of transportation. To enhance such an understanding, a set of state-or waterway-specific accident, fatality, and injury rates (expressed as rates per shipment kilometer) by transportation mode and highway administrative class was developed, using publicly-available data bases. Adjustments made to accommodate miscoded or incomplete information in accident data are described, as well as the procedures for estimating state-level flow data. Results indicate that the shipping conditions under which spent fuel is likely to be transported should be less subject to accidents than the average'' shipment within mode. 10 refs., 3 tabs.

  20. International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fodroci, Michael

    2011-01-01

    As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the ISS requirements and initial design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to reduce risk -- given the determination and commitment to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS. While decades of work went into developing the ISS requirements, there are many things in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: (1) Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) (2) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity Level 4 materials, emergency hardware and procedures) (3) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards) Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of nearly a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery.

  1. Risk-based Analysis of Construction Accidents in Iran During 2007-2011-Meta Analyze Study

    PubMed Central

    AMIRI, Mehran; ARDESHIR, Abdollah; FAZEL ZARANDI, Mohammad Hossein

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Background The present study aimed to investigate the characteristics of occupational accidents and frequency and severity of work related accidents in the construction industry among Iranian insured workers during the years 20072011. Methods The Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) accident database containing 21,864 cases between the years 2007-2011 was applied in this study. In the next step, Total Accident Rate (TRA), Total Severity Index (TSI), and Risk Factor (RF) were defined. The core of this work is devoted to analyzing the data from different perspectives such as age of workers, occupation and construction phase, day of the week, time of the day, seasonal analysis, regional considerations, type of accident, and body parts affected. Results Workers between 15-19 years old (TAR=13.4%) are almost six times more exposed to risk of accident than the average of all ages (TAR=2.51%). Laborers and structural workers (TAR=66.6%) and those working at heights (TAR=47.2%) experience more accidents than other groups of workers. Moreover, older workers over 65 years old (TSI=1.97%> average TSI=1.60%), work supervisors (TSI=12.20% >average TSI=9.09%), and night shift workers (TSI=1.89% >average TSI=1.47%) are more prone to severe accidents. Conclusion It is recommended that laborers, young workers, weekend and night shift workers be supervised more carefully in the workplace. Use of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) should be compulsory in working environments, and special attention should be undertaken to people working outdoors and at heights. It is also suggested that policymakers pay more attention to the improvement of safety conditions in deprived and cold western regions. PMID:26005662

  2. [Risk factors associated with road accidents among young people in Tuscany (Italy): a cross sectional study].

    PubMed

    Innocenti, Francesco; Voller, Fabio; Berti, Alice; Silvestri, Caterina

    2013-01-01

    In most countries, national statistics institutes either do not measure or underestimate the impact of behavioral aspects as causes of road accidents. To bridge this gap, the Regional Health Agency of Tuscany (Italy) created the EDIT project, which evaluates driving behaviors and other lifestyle risk factors in a sample of secondary school students. Study results show that driving while under the influence of alcohol or drugs or while being distracted by cigarette smoking or the use of mobile phones are the risk factors most frequently associated with traffic accidents. PMID:23903036

  3. POLLUTION PREVENTION RESEARCH ONGOING - EPA'S RISK REDUCTION ENGINEERING LABORATORY

    EPA Science Inventory

    The mission of the Risk Reduction Engineering Laboratory is to advance the understanding, development and application of engineering solutions for the prevention or reduction of risks from environmental contamination. This mission is accomplished through basic and applied researc...

  4. Risk factors for traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis: a case-reference study.

    PubMed

    Na Ayuthya, R S; Böhning, D

    1997-12-01

    It was aimed to study injures from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis and identify patients' characteristics as well as to search for risk factors for traffic accidents leading to hospitalization. The study included 346 in-patient cases suffering injuries from road traffic accidents in Bangkok Metropolis. The patients were recruited during a period of 4 months of the year 1992 from five hospitals in various areas of Bangkok which were judged to be representative for Bangkok Metropolis. Using the method of case-reference, relative risk could be estimated for various exposure factors. Most of the patients drove a motorcycle, had their license for only a short period, and drove more than 5 hours a day. About one third of the patients were under the influence of alcohol. The traffic accident characteristics were that they occurred mainly at night time with the peak between 21.00 and 24.00 hours. About 90% of all traffic accidents occurred during the rainy season and most of them occurred near to road junctions. Reference data was available for some variables and the following risk group could be identified: RR (male-age 20-24) = 17.06 (8.8-33.9), RR (single-marital status) = 2.25 (1.7-3.1), RR (primary-education) = 6.2 (2.9-12.6), RR (unskilled labourer-occupation) = 3.91 (2.7-5.9), RR (salesperson-occupation) = 3.34 (2.2-5.0). PMID:9656420

  5. Pollution risk assessment of oil spill accidents in Garorim Bay of Korea.

    PubMed

    Lee, Moonjin; Jung, Jung-Yeul

    2015-11-15

    This study presents a model to assess the oil spill risk in Garorim Bay in Korea, where large-scale oil spill accidents frequently occur. The oil spill risk assessment is carried out by using two factors: 1) The impact probability of the oil spill, and 2) the first impact time of the oil that has been spilt. The risk assessment is conducted for environmentally sensitive areas, such as the coastline and aquaculture farms in the Garorim Bay area. Finally, Garorim Bay is divided into six subareas, and the risks of each subarea are compared with one another to identify the subarea that is most vulnerable to an oil spill accident. These results represent an objective and comprehensive oil spill risk level for a specific region. The prediction of the oil spill spread is based on real-time sea conditions and can be improved by integrating our results, especially when sea conditions are rapidly changing.

  6. [Motivation of the employer for accident prevention and rehabilitation through risk-justified premiums].

    PubMed

    Hartmann, A L; Merz, R

    1989-01-01

    The Swiss workers' compensation law prescribes experience rating. Successful efforts of an employer to reduce the risk of accidents through adequate preventive measures on one hand, and on the other hand to keep subsequent costs of still occurring accidents low with quick, consistent and generous measures of rehabilitation, will therefore result in a lower insurance rate. The motivating influence and success of this self-responsibility is pointed out with the figures of a trading company who had been detached from a large risk-community due to bad results. The success with accident prevention and the very favourable ratio achievable of costs for medical treatment (as a measure for the severity of the injuries) to daily payments and costs for permanent disabilities is shown with the example of a construction machinery company. What relations and consecutive costs result from (partly conscious) neglect of rehabilitation is demonstrated with the figures of a construction company. PMID:2532438

  7. Documentation for RISKIN: A risk integration code for MACCS (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System) output

    SciTech Connect

    Rollstin, J.A. ); Hong, Kou-John )

    1990-11-01

    This document has been prepared as a user's guide for the computer program RISKIN developed at Sandia National Laboratories. The RISKIN code generates integrated risk tables and the weighted mean risk associated with a user-selected set of consequences from up to five output files generated by the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System (MACCS). Each MACCS output file can summarize the health and economic consequences resulting from up to 60 distinct severe accident source terms. Since the accident frequency associated with these source terms is not included as a MACCS input parameter a postprocessor is required to derived results that must incorporate accident frequency. The RISKIN code is such a postprocessor. RISKIN will search the MACCS output files for the mean and peak consequence values and the complementary cumulative distributive function (CCDF) tables for each requested consequence. Once obtained, RISKIN combines this data with accident frequency data to produce frequency weighted results. A postprocessor provides RISKIN an interface to the proprietary DISSPLA plot package. The RISKIN code has been written using ANSI Standard FORTRAN 77 to maximize its portability.

  8. Some implications of an event-based definition of exposure to the risk of road accident.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2015-03-01

    This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept.

  9. Risk Analysis for Public Consumption: Media Coverage of the Ginna Nuclear Reactor Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dunwoody, Sharon; And Others

    Researchers have determined that the lay public makes risk judgments in ways that are very different from those advocated by scientists. Noting that these differences have caused considerable concern among those who promote and regulate health and safety, a study examined media coverage of the accident at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear power plant…

  10. Evaluation of severe accident risks: Methodology for the containment, source term, consequence, and risk integration analyses; Volume 1, Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Gorham, E.D.; Breeding, R.J.; Brown, T.D.; Harper, F.T.; Helton, J.C.; Murfin, W.B.; Hora, S.C.

    1993-12-01

    NUREG-1150 examines the risk to the public from five nuclear power plants. The NUREG-1150 plant studies are Level III probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) and, as such, they consist of four analysis components: accident frequency analysis, accident progression analysis, source term analysis, and consequence analysis. This volume summarizes the methods utilized in performing the last three components and the assembly of these analyses into an overall risk assessment. The NUREG-1150 analysis approach is based on the following ideas: (1) general and relatively fast-running models for the individual analysis components, (2) well-defined interfaces between the individual analysis components, (3) use of Monte Carlo techniques together with an efficient sampling procedure to propagate uncertainties, (4) use of expert panels to develop distributions for important phenomenological issues, and (5) automation of the overall analysis. Many features of the new analysis procedures were adopted to facilitate a comprehensive treatment of uncertainty in the complete risk analysis. Uncertainties in the accident frequency, accident progression and source term analyses were included in the overall uncertainty assessment. The uncertainties in the consequence analysis were not included in this assessment. A large effort was devoted to the development of procedures for obtaining expert opinion and the execution of these procedures to quantify parameters and phenomena for which there is large uncertainty and divergent opinions in the reactor safety community.

  11. Estimating the subjective risks of driving simulator accidents.

    PubMed

    Dixit, Vinayak; Harrison, Glenn W; Rutström, E Elisabet

    2014-01-01

    We examine the subjective risks of driving behavior using a controlled virtual reality experiment. Use of a driving simulator allows us to observe choices over risky alternatives that are presented to the individual in a naturalistic manner, with many of the cues one would find in the field. However, the use of a simulator allows us the type of controls one expects from a laboratory environment. The subject was tasked with making a left-hand turn into incoming traffic, and the experimenter controlled the headways of oncoming traffic. Subjects were rewarded for making a successful turn, and lost income if they crashed. The experimental design provided opportunities for subjects to develop subjective beliefs about when it would be safe to turn, and it also elicited their attitudes towards risk. A simple structural model explains behavior, and showed evidence of heterogeneity in both the subjective beliefs that subjects formed and their risk attitudes. We find that subjective beliefs change with experience in the task and the driver's skill. A significant difference was observed in the perceived probability to successfully turn among the inexperienced drivers who did and did not crash even though there was no significant difference in drivers' risk attitudes among the two groups. We use experimental economics to design controlled, incentive compatible tasks that provide an opportunity to evaluate the impact on driver safety of subject's subjective beliefs about when it would be safe to turn as well as their attitudes towards risk. This method could be used to help insurance companies determine risk premia associated with risk attitudes or beliefs of crashing, to better incentivize safe driving.

  12. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident and Comprehensive Health Risk Management—Global Radiocontamination and Information Disaster

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    The Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011, besides further studying the appropriateness of the initial response and post-countermeasures against the severe Fukushima nuclear accident, has now increased the importance of the epidemiological study in comprehensive health risk management and radiation protection; lessons learnt from the Chernobyl accident should be also implemented. Therefore, since May 2011, Fukushima Prefecture has started the “Fukushima Health Management Survey Project” for the purpose of long-term health care administration and early diagnosis/treatment for the prefectural residents. Basic survey is under investigation on a retrospective estimation of external exposure of the first four months. As one of the four detailed surveys, the thyroid ultrasound examination has clarified the increased detection rate of childhood thyroid cancers as a screening effect in the past three years and so thyroid cancer occurrence by Fukushima nuclear power plant accident, especially due to radioactive iodine will be discussed despite of difficult challenge of accurate estimation of low dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures. Through the on-site valuable experience and a difficult challenge for recovery, we should learn the lessons from this severe and large-scale nuclear accident, especially how to countermeasure against public health emergency at the standpoint of health risk and also social risk management. PMID:25425958

  13. Risk assessment of severe accident-induced steam generator tube rupture

    SciTech Connect

    1998-03-01

    This report describes the basis, results, and related risk implications of an analysis performed by an ad hoc working group of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to assess the containment bypass potential attributable to steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) induced by severe accident conditions. The SGTR Severe Accident Working Group, comprised of staff members from the NRC`s Offices of Nuclear Reactor Regulation (NRR) and Nuclear Regulatory Research (RES), undertook the analysis beginning in December 1995 to support a proposed steam generator integrity rule. The work drew upon previous risk and thermal-hydraulic analyses of core damage sequences, with a focus on the Surry plant as a representative example. This analysis yielded new results, however, derived by predicting thermal-hydraulic conditions of selected severe accident scenarios using the SCDAP/RELAP5 computer code, flawed tube failure modeling, and tube failure probability estimates. These results, in terms of containment bypass probability, form the basis for the findings presented in this report. The representative calculation using Surry plant data indicates that some existing plants could be vulnerable to containment bypass resulting from tube failure during severe accidents. To specifically identify the population of plants that may pose a significant bypass risk would require more definitive analysis considering uncertainties in some assumptions and plant- and design-specific variables. 46 refs., 62 figs., 37 tabs.

  14. Driving behaviors and accident risk under lifetime license revocation.

    PubMed

    Chang, Hsin-Li; Woo, T Hugh; Tseng, Chien-Ming; Tseng, I-Yen

    2011-07-01

    This study explored the driving behaviors and crash risk of 768 drivers who were under administrative lifetime driver's license revocation (ALLR). It was found that most of the ALLR offenders (83.2%) were still driving and only a few (16.8%) of them gave up driving completely. Of the offenders still driving, 67.6% experienced encountering a police roadside check, but were not detained or ticketed by the police. Within this group, 50.6% continued driving while encountering a police check, 18.0% of them made an immediate U-turn and 9.5% of them parked and exited their car. As to crash risk, 15.2% of the ALLR offenders had at least one crash experience after the ALLR had been imposed. The results of the logistic regression models showed that the offenders' crash risk while under the ALLR was significantly correlated with their personal characteristics (personal income), penalty status (incarceration, civil compensation and the time elapsed since license revocation), annual distance driven, and needs for driving (working, commuting and driving kids). Low-income offenders were more inclined to have a crash while driving under the ALLR. Offenders penalized by being incarcerated or by paying a high civil compensation drove more carefully and were less of a crash risk under the ALLR. The results also showed there were no differences in crash risk under the ALLR between hit-and-run offences and drunk driving offences or for offenders with a professional license or an ordinary license. Generally, ALLR offenders drove somewhat more carefully and were less of a crash risk (4.3 crashes per million km driven) than legal licensed drivers (23.1 crashes per million km driven). Moreover, they seemed to drive more carefully than drivers who were under short-term license suspension/revocation which previous studies have found.

  15. Estimating Worker Risk Levels Using Accident/Incident Data

    SciTech Connect

    Kenoyer, Judson L.; Stenner, Robert D.; Andrews, William B.; Scherpelz, Robert I.; Aaberg, Rosanne L.

    2000-09-26

    The purpose of the work described in this report was to identify methods that are currently being used in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex to identify and control hazards/risks in the workplace, evaluate them in terms of their effectiveness in reducing risk to the workers, and to develop a preliminary method that could be used to predict the relative risks to workers performing proposed tasks using some of the current methodology. This report describes some of the performance indicators (i.e., safety metrics) that are currently being used to track relative levels of workplace safety in the DOE complex, how these fit into an Integrated Safety Management (ISM) system, some strengths and weaknesses of using a statistically based set of indicators, and methods to evaluate them. Also discussed are methods used to reduce risk to the workers and some of the techniques that appear to be working in the process of establishing a condition of continuous improvement. The results of these methods will be used in future work involved with the determination of modifying factors for a more complex model. The preliminary method to predict the relative risk level to workers during an extended future time period is based on a currently used performance indicator that uses several factors tracked in the CAIRS. The relative risks for workers in a sample (but real) facility on the Hanford site are estimated for a time period of twenty years and are based on workforce predictions. This is the first step in developing a more complex model that will incorporate other modifying factors related to the workers, work environment and status of the ISM system to adjust the preliminary prediction.

  16. NASA's Orbital Space Plane Risk Reduction Strategy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dumbacher, Dan

    2003-01-01

    This paper documents the transformation of NASA s Space Launch Initiative (SLI) Second Generation Reusable Launch Vehicle Program under the revised Integrated Space Transportation Plan, announced November 2002. Outlining the technology development approach followed by the original SLI, this paper gives insight into the current risk-reduction strategy that will enable confident development of the Nation s first orbital space plane (OSP). The OSP will perform an astronaut and contingency cargo transportation function, with an early crew rescue capability, thus enabling increased crew size and enhanced science operations aboard the International Space Station. The OSP design chosen for full-scale development will take advantage of the latest innovations American industry has to offer. The OSP Program identifies critical technologies that must be advanced to field a safe, reliable, affordable space transportation system for U.S. access to the Station and low-Earth orbit. OSP flight demonstrators will test crew safety features, validate autonomous operations, and mature thermal protection systems. Additional enabling technologies may be identified during the OSP design process as part of an overall risk-management strategy. The OSP Program uses a comprehensive and evolutionary systems acquisition approach, while applying appropriate lessons learned.

  17. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis. PMID:22642363

  18. Bayesian data analysis of severe fatal accident risk in the oil chain.

    PubMed

    Eckle, Petrissa; Burgherr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    We analyze the risk of severe fatal accidents causing five or more fatalities and for nine different activities covering the entire oil chain. Included are exploration and extraction, transport by different modes, refining and final end use in power plants, heating or gas stations. The risks are quantified separately for OECD and non-OECD countries and trends are calculated. Risk is analyzed by employing a Bayesian hierarchical model yielding analytical functions for both frequency (Poisson) and severity distributions (Generalized Pareto) as well as frequency trends. This approach addresses a key problem in risk estimation-namely the scarcity of data resulting in high uncertainties in particular for the risk of extreme events, where the risk is extrapolated beyond the historically most severe accidents. Bayesian data analysis allows the pooling of information from different data sets covering, for example, the different stages of the energy chains or different modes of transportation. In addition, it also inherently delivers a measure of uncertainty. This approach provides a framework, which comprehensively covers risk throughout the oil chain, allowing the allocation of risk in sustainability assessments. It also permits the progressive addition of new data to refine the risk estimates. Frequency, severity, and trends show substantial differences between the activities, emphasizing the need for detailed risk analysis.

  19. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC. PMID:27616269

  20. Risk communication in the case of the Fukushima accident: Impact of communication and lessons to be learned.

    PubMed

    Perko, Tanja

    2016-10-01

    Risk communication about the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident in 2011 was often not transparent, timely, clear, nor factually correct. However, lessons related to risk communication have been identified and some of them are already addressed in national and international communication programmes and strategies. The Fukushima accident may be seen as a practice scenario for risk communication with important lessons to be learned. As a result of risk communication failures during the accident, the world is now better prepared for communication related to nuclear emergencies than it was 5 years ago The present study discusses the impact of communication, as applied during the Fukushima accident, and the main lessons learned. It then identifies pathways for transparent, timely, clear and factually correct communication to be developed, practiced and applied in nuclear emergency communication before, during, and after nuclear accidents. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2016;12:683-686. © 2016 SETAC.

  1. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers.

  2. Risk factors affecting fatal bus accident severity: Their impact on different types of bus drivers.

    PubMed

    Feng, Shumin; Li, Zhenning; Ci, Yusheng; Zhang, Guohui

    2016-01-01

    While the bus is generally considered to be a relatively safe means of transportation, the property losses and casualties caused by bus accidents, especially fatal ones, are far from negligible. The reasons for a driver to incur fatalities are different in each case, and it is essential to discover the underlying risk factors of bus fatality severity for different types of drivers in order to improve bus safety. The current study investigates the underlying risk factors of fatal bus accident severity to different types of drivers in the U.S. by estimating an ordered logistic model. Data for the analysis are retrieved from the Buses Involved in Fatal Accidents (BIFA) database from the USA for the years 2006-2010. Accidents are divided into three levels by counting their equivalent fatalities, and the drivers are classified into three clusters by the K-means cluster analysis. The analysis shows that some risk factors have the same impact on different types of drivers, they are: (a) season; (b) day of week; (c) time period; (d) number of vehicles involved; (e) land use; (f) manner of collision; (g) speed limit; (h) snow or ice surface condition; (i) school bus; (j) bus type and seating capacity; (k) driver's age; (l) driver's gender; (m) risky behaviors; and (n) restraint system. Results also show that some risk factors only have impact on the "young and elder drivers with history of traffic violations", they are: (a) section type; (b) number of lanes per direction; (c) roadway profile; (d) wet road surface; and (e) cyclist-bus accident. Notably, history of traffic violations has different impact on different types of bus drivers. PMID:26513334

  3. Risk acceptance criterion for tanker oil spill risk reduction measures.

    PubMed

    Psarros, George; Skjong, Rolf; Vanem, Erik

    2011-01-01

    This paper is aimed at investigating whether there is ample support for the view that the acceptance criterion for evaluating measures for prevention of oil spills from tankers should be based on cost-effectiveness considerations. One such criterion can be reflected by the Cost of Averting a Tonne of oil Spilt (CATS) whereas its target value is updated by elaborating the inherent uncertainties of oil spill costs and establishing a value for the criterion's assurance factor. To this end, a value of $80,000/t is proposed as a sensible CATS criterion and the proposed value for the assurance factor F=1.5 is supported by the retrieved Protection and Indemnity (P&I) Clubs' Annual Reports. It is envisaged that this criterion would allow the conversion of direct and indirect costs into a non-market value for the optimal allocation of resources between the various parties investing in shipping. A review of previous cost estimation models on oil spills is presented and a probability distribution (log-normal) is fitted on the available oil spill cost data, where it should be made abundantly clear that the mean value of the distribution is used for deriving the updated CATS criterion value. However, the difference between the initial and the updated CATS criterion in the percentiles of the distribution is small. It is found through the current analysis that results are partly lower than the predicted values from the published estimation models. The costs are also found to depend on the type of accident, which is in agreement with the results of previous studies. Other proposals on acceptance criteria are reviewed and it is asserted that the CATS criterion can be considered as the best candidate. Evidence is provided that the CATS approach is practical and meaningful by including examples of successful applications in actual risk assessments. Finally, it is suggested that the criterion may be refined subject to more readily available cost data and experience gained from future

  4. Risk Perception and Occupational Accidents: A Study of Gas Station Workers in Southern Brazil

    PubMed Central

    Cezar-Vaz, Marta Regina; Rocha, Laurelize Pereira; Bonow, Clarice Alves; da Silva, Mara Regina Santos; Vaz, Joana Cezar; Cardoso, Letícia Silveira

    2012-01-01

    The present study aimed to identify the perceptions of gas station workers about physical, chemical, biological and physiological risk factors to which they are exposed in their work environment; identify types of occupational accidents involving gas station workers and; report the development of a socioenvironmental intervention as a tool for risk communication to gas station workers. A quantitative study was performed with 221 gas station workers in southern Brazil between October and December 2010. Data collection was performed between October to December 2010 via structured interviews. The data were analyzed using SPSS 19.0. The participants identified the following risk types: chemical (93.7%), physical (88.2%), physiological (64.3%) and biological (62.4%). In this sample, 94.1% of gas station workers reported occupational accidents, and 74.2% reported fuel contact with the eyes (p < 0.05). It is concluded that workers perceive risks, and that they tend to relate risks with the occurrence of occupational accidents as an indicator of the dangerous nature of their work environment. PMID:22851948

  5. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: a modeling study for radiocaesium ((134)Cs &(137)Cs).

    PubMed

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

    2014-03-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous radionuclides emitted, (137)Cs (half-life: 30.2years) and (134)Cs (half-life: 2.06years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, cancer risks are presented for the local population in the form of high-resolution risk maps for 3 population classes and for both sexes. The atmospheric transport model LMDZORINCA was used to simulate the global dispersion of radiocaesium after the accident. Air and ground activity concentrations have been incorporated with monitoring data as input to the LNT-model (Linear Non-Threshold) frequently used in risk assessments of all solid cancers. Cancer risks were estimated to be small for the global population in regions outside Japan. Women are more sensitive to radiation than men, although the largest risks were recorded for infants; the risk is not depended on the sex at the age-at-exposure. Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730-1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein). Finally, we applied the same calculations using the DDREF (Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor), which is recommended by the ICRP, UNSCEAR and EPA as an alternative reduction factor instead of using a threshold value (which is still unknown). Excess lifetime cancer

  6. Global and local cancer risks after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident as seen from Chernobyl: a modeling study for radiocaesium ((134)Cs &(137)Cs).

    PubMed

    Evangeliou, Nikolaos; Balkanski, Yves; Cozic, Anne; Møller, Anders Pape

    2014-03-01

    The accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) in Japan resulted in the release of a large number of fission products that were transported worldwide. We study the effects of two of the most dangerous radionuclides emitted, (137)Cs (half-life: 30.2years) and (134)Cs (half-life: 2.06years), which were transported across the world constituting the global fallout (together with iodine isotopes and noble gasses) after nuclear releases. The main purpose is to provide preliminary cancer risk estimates after the Fukushima NPP accident, in terms of excess lifetime incident and death risks, prior to epidemiology, and compare them with those occurred after the Chernobyl accident. Moreover, cancer risks are presented for the local population in the form of high-resolution risk maps for 3 population classes and for both sexes. The atmospheric transport model LMDZORINCA was used to simulate the global dispersion of radiocaesium after the accident. Air and ground activity concentrations have been incorporated with monitoring data as input to the LNT-model (Linear Non-Threshold) frequently used in risk assessments of all solid cancers. Cancer risks were estimated to be small for the global population in regions outside Japan. Women are more sensitive to radiation than men, although the largest risks were recorded for infants; the risk is not depended on the sex at the age-at-exposure. Radiation risks from Fukushima were more enhanced near the plant, while the evacuation measures were crucial for its reduction. According to our estimations, 730-1700 excess cancer incidents are expected of which around 65% may be fatal, which are very close to what has been already published (see references therein). Finally, we applied the same calculations using the DDREF (Dose and Dose Rate Effectiveness Factor), which is recommended by the ICRP, UNSCEAR and EPA as an alternative reduction factor instead of using a threshold value (which is still unknown). Excess lifetime cancer

  7. Willingness-to-pay for reducing fatal accident risk in urban areas: an Internet-based Web page stated preference survey.

    PubMed

    Iragüen, Paula; de Dios Ortúzar, Juan

    2004-07-01

    Contemporary transport project evaluation requires the ability to value reductions in the number of estimated fatal and non-fatal accidents after project implementation. In this quest, we designed a stated preference (SP) experiment to estimate willingness-to-pay (WTP) for reducing fatal accident risk in urban areas. The survey was implemented in a Web page allowing rapid turnover and a complete customisation of the interview. The sample was presented with a series of route choice situations based on travel time, cost and number of car fatal accidents per year. With this data we estimated Multinomial Logit (MNL) and Mixed Logit (ML) models based on a consistent microeconomic framework; the former with linear and non-linear utility specifications and allowing for various stratifications of the data. The more flexible ML models also allow to treat the repeated observations problem common to SP data and, as expected, gave a better fit to the data in all cases. Based on these models, we estimated subjective values of time, that were consistent with previous values obtained in the country, and also sensible values for the WTP for reductions in fatal accident risk. Thus, the Internet appears as a potentially very interesting medium to carry out complex stated choice surveys.

  8. Risk and preventive factors for fatalities in All-terrain Vehicle Accidents in New Zealand.

    PubMed

    Shulruf, Boaz; Balemi, Andrew

    2010-03-01

    All-Terrain Vehicles (ATVs) have been used in agriculture for a few decades now. Yet despite their invaluable contribution to the productivity of the agricultural industry they are associated with a large number of accidents, many of which result in a severe or fatal outcome. The main objective of this study was to identify the risk factors for ATV-related fatal injuries in order to support the design of effective interventions. Using data held by the Department of Labour, the current study analysed 355 cases of serious harm accidents associated with ATVs including 45 fatalities. The findings suggest that injuries are more likely to occur when accidents involve any of the following: children under the age of 10; four-wheel drive ATVs; driving downhill; driving on a sealed road; driving backwards; or if the ATV rolls sideways. A fatal outcome is more likely to occur when ATV accidents end up with the vehicle rolling over and pinning the driver underneath. Fatalities were also associated with injuries to the head, neck and chest. Being employed; and/or having formal training; and/or having brakes and tyres well maintained on the ATV; and/or having no fluid load on the ATV reduced the risk for fatality. Since the likelihood of a fatal outcome was found to be related to human behaviour and ATV rollover, it is suggested that interventions should mainly address these two issues.

  9. FACTORS RELATED TO MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENT RISK BEHAVIOR AMONG UNIVERSITY STUDENTS IN NORTHEASTERN THAILAND.

    PubMed

    Chumpawadee, Urai; Homchampa, Pissamai; Thongkrajai, Pramote; Suwanimitr, Amorn; Chadbunchachai, Witaya

    2015-07-01

    Young motorcycle drivers in Thailand are at high risk for road traffic accidents. We conducted this study to identify factors associated with motorcycle accident risk behavior (MARB). We studied 372 randomly selected university students aged 18-22 years (mean 20.2 years; women comprised 68.0% of our participants), who attend a government university in northeastern Thailand. Each student was asked to fill out a questionnaire asking about MARB and factors associated with this behavior. The respondents had an average of 6.2 years (SD+3.09) motorcycle driving experience, 72.3% had a motorcycle driver's license and 83.0% had accident insurance. The prevalence of self-reported motorcycle accident injuries was 42.7%. Their major MARB were using a telephone while driving (69.3%), speeding (45.4%), driving with more than one passenger (40.1%), drunk driving (22.1%), and not wearing a helmet (23.3%). Factors related to MARB were: gender, with men engaged in risky behavior more often than women (p < 0.05); duration of motorcycle driving--drivers with > 5 years experience were more likely to engage in risky behavior (p < 0.05); and knowledge of safe driving, those with a greater knowledge of safe driving were more likely to drive safely (p < 0.001). Having a greater awareness of MARB was associated with lower risk of engaging in risky behavior (p < 0.001). Students who engaged in risky behavior were more likely to view it as normal behavior (p < 0.001) and less likely to have adequate self-control (p < 0.001). Our findings indicate a need to strengthen accident prevention programs for university students in northeastern Thailand. PMID:26867401

  10. Using cost/risk procedures to establish recovery criteria following a nuclear reactor accident.

    PubMed

    Tawil, J J; Strenge, D L

    1987-02-01

    In the event of a major accidental release of radionuclides at a nuclear power plant, large populated areas could become seriously contaminated. Local officials would be responsible for establishing radiation recovery criteria that would permit the evacuated population to return safely to their jobs and homes. The range of acceptable criteria could imply variations in property losses in the billions of dollars. Given the likely public concern over the health consequences and the enormity of the potential property losses, a cost/risk analysis can provide important input to establishing the recovery criteria. This paper describes procedures for conducting a cost/risk analysis of a site radiologically contaminated by a nuclear power plant accident. The procedures are illustrated by analyzing a hypothetically contaminated site, using software developed for determining the property and health effects of major reactor accidents. PMID:3818283

  11. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima.

  12. Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

    1980-01-01

    The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

  13. Comprehensive Health Risk Management after the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, S

    2016-04-01

    Five years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake and the subsequent Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident on 11 March 2011. Countermeasures aimed at human protection during the emergency period, including evacuation, sheltering and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese Government. However, there is an apparent need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection, and also in the management of radiation health risk during and even after the accident. Continuous monitoring and characterisation of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are now essential for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the radio-contaminated areas and also on returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is allowed; it is also important to carry out a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. Until now, various types of radiation health risk management projects and research have been implemented in Fukushima, among which the Fukushima Health Management Survey is the largest health monitoring project. It includes the Basic Survey for the estimation of external radiation doses received during the first 4 months after the accident and four detailed surveys: thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and lifestyle survey, and survey on pregnant women and nursing mothers, with the aim to prospectively take care of the health of all the residents of Fukushima Prefecture for a long time. In particular, among evacuees of the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant accident, concern about radiation risk is associated with psychological stresses. Here, ongoing health risk management will be reviewed, focusing on the difficult challenge of post-disaster recovery and resilience in Fukushima. PMID:26817782

  14. Risk of thyroid cancer after the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi; Suzuki, Shinichi

    2013-09-01

    The appropriateness of the initial response and countermeasures taken following the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident after the Great East Japan Earthquake on March 11, 2011 should be further examined. Implementation of a prospective epidemiological study on human health risks from low-dose radiation exposure and comprehensive health protection from radiation should be emphasized on a basis of the lessons learnt from the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident. In contrast, the doses to a vast majority of the population in Fukushima were not high enough to expect to see any increase in incidence of cancer and health effects in the future, however, public concerns about the long-term health effects of radioactive environmental contamination have increased in Japan. Since May 2011, the Fukushima Prefecture started the Fukushima Health Management Survey Project with the purpose of long-term health care administration and early medical diagnosis/treatment for prefectural residents. In this report, risk and countermeasures of thyroid cancer occurrence after nuclear accidents, especially due to early exposure of radioactive iodine, will be focused upon to understand the current situation of risk of thyroid cancer in Fukushima, and the difficult challenges surrounding accurate estimations of low-dose and low-dose rate radiation exposures will be discussed.

  15. Environmental risk management for radiological accidents: integrating risk assessment and decision analysis for remediation at different spatial scales.

    PubMed

    Yatsalo, Boris; Sullivan, Terrence; Didenko, Vladimir; Linkov, Igor

    2011-07-01

    The consequences of the Tohuku earthquake and subsequent tsunami in March 2011 caused a loss of power at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, in Japan, and led to the release of radioactive materials into the environment. Although the full extent of the contamination is not currently known, the highly complex nature of the environmental contamination (radionuclides in water, soil, and agricultural produce) typical of nuclear accidents requires a detailed geospatial analysis of information with the ability to extrapolate across different scales with applications to risk assessment models and decision making support. This article briefly summarizes the approach used to inform risk-based land management and remediation decision making after the Chernobyl, Soviet Ukraine, accident in 1986. PMID:21608109

  16. Forging process design for risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mao, Yongning

    In this dissertation, forging process design has been investigated with the primary concern on risk reduction. Different forged components have been studied, especially those ones that could cause catastrophic loss if failure occurs. As an effective modeling methodology, finite element analysis is applied extensively in this work. Three examples, titanium compressor disk, superalloy turbine disk, and titanium hip prosthesis, have been discussed to demonstrate this approach. Discrete defects such as hard alpha anomalies are known to cause disastrous failure if they are present in those stress critical components. In this research, hard-alpha inclusion movement during forging of titanium compressor disk is studied by finite element analysis. By combining the results from Finite Element Method (FEM), regression modeling and Monte Carlo simulation, it is shown that changing the forging path is able to mitigate the failure risk of the components during the service. The second example goes with a turbine disk made of superalloy IN 718. The effect of forging on microstructure is the main consideration in this study. Microstructure defines the as-forged disk properties. Considering specific forging conditions, preform has its own effect on the microstructure. Through a sensitivity study it is found that forging temperature and speed have significant influence on the microstructure. In order to choose the processing parameters to optimize the microstructure, the dependence of microstructure on die speed and temperature is thoroughly studied using design of numerical experiments. For various desired goals, optimal solutions are determined. The narrow processing window of titanium alloy makes the isothermal forging a preferred way to produce forged parts without forging defects. However, the cost of isothermal forging (dies at the same temperature as the workpiece) limits its wide application. In this research, it has been demonstrated that with proper process design, the die

  17. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters.

  18. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-01-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

  19. Public health activities for mitigation of radiation exposures and risk communication challenges after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Shimura, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Ichiro; Terada, Hiroshi; Robert Svendsen, Erik; Kunugita, Naoki

    2015-05-01

    Herein we summarize the public health actions taken to mitigate exposure of the public to radiation after the Fukushima accident that occurred on 11 March 2011 in order to record valuable lessons learned for disaster preparedness. Evacuations from the radiation-affected areas and control of the distribution of various food products contributed to the reduction of external and internal radiation exposure resulting from the Fukushima incident. However, risk communication is also an important issue during the emergency response effort and subsequent phases of dealiing with a nuclear disaster. To assist with their healing process, sound, reliable scientific information should continue to be disseminated to the radiation-affected communities via two-way communication. We will describe the essential public health actions following a nuclear disaster for the early, intermediate and late phases that will be useful for radiological preparedness planning in response to other nuclear or radiological disasters. PMID:25862700

  20. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG (radioisotope thermoelectric generator) on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    SciTech Connect

    Goldman, M. ); Nelson, R.C. ); Bollinger, L. ); Hoover, M.D. . Inhalation Toxicology Research Inst.); Templeton, W. ); Anspaugh, L. (Lawren

    1990-11-02

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later times after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher. 83 refs.

  1. Potential health risks from postulated accidents involving the Pu-238 RTG on the Ulysses solar exploration mission

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goldman, Marvin; Hoover, Mark D.; Nelson, Robert C.; Templeton, William; Bollinger, Lance; Anspaugh, Lynn

    1991-01-01

    Potential radiation impacts from launch of the Ulysses solar exploration experiment were evaluated using eight postulated accident scenarios. Lifetime individual dose estimates rarely exceeded 1 mrem. Most of the potential health effects would come from inhalation exposures immediately after an accident, rather than from ingestion of contaminated food or water, or from inhalation of resuspended plutonium from contaminated ground. For local Florida accidents (that is, during the first minute after launch), an average source term accident was estimated to cause a total added cancer risk of up to 0.2 deaths. For accidents at later time after launch, a worldwide cancer risk of up to three cases was calculated (with a four in a million probability). Upper bound estimates were calculated to be about 10 times higher.

  2. Disaster Risks Reduction for Extreme Natural Hazards

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plag, H.; Jules-Plag, S.

    2013-12-01

    Mega disasters associated with extreme natural hazards have the potential to escalate the global sustainability crisis and put us close to the boundaries of the safe operating space for humanity. Floods and droughts are major threats that potentially could reach planetary extent, particularly through secondary economic and social impacts. Earthquakes and tsunamis frequently cause disasters that eventually could exceed the immediate coping capacity of the global economy, particularly since we have built mega cities in hazardous areas that are now ready to be harvested by natural hazards. Unfortunately, the more we learn to cope with the relatively frequent hazards (50 to 100 years events), the less we are worried about the low-probability, high-impact events (a few hundred and more years events). As a consequence, threats from the 500 years flood, drought, volcano eruption are not appropriately accounted for in disaster risk reduction (DRR) discussions. Extreme geohazards have occurred regularly throughout the past, but mostly did not cause major disasters because exposure of human assets to hazards was much lower in the past. The most extreme events that occurred during the last 2,000 years would today cause unparalleled damage on a global scale and could worsen the sustainability crisis. Simulation of these extreme hazards under present conditions can help to assess the disaster risk. Recent extreme earthquakes have illustrated the destruction they can inflict, both directly and indirectly through tsunamis. Large volcano eruptions have the potential to impact climate, anthropogenic infrastructure and resource supplies on global scale. During the last 2,000 years several large volcano eruptions occurred, which under today's conditions are associated with extreme disaster risk. The comparison of earthquakes and volcano eruptions indicates that large volcano eruptions are the low-probability geohazards with potentially the highest impact on our civilization

  3. Pedestrian injury risk functions based on contour lines of equal injury severity using real world pedestrian/passenger-car accident data.

    PubMed

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2013-01-01

    Injury risk assessment plays a pivotal role in the assessment of the effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as they specify the injury reduction potential of the system. The usual way to describe injury risks is by use of injury risk functions, i.e. specifying the probability of an injury of a given severity occurring at a specific technical accident severity (collision speed). A method for the generation of a family of risk functions for different levels of injury severity is developed. The injury severity levels are determined by use of a rescaled version of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) namely the ISSx. The injury risk curves for each collision speed is then obtained by fixing the boundary conditions and use of a case-by-case validated GIDAS subset of pedestrian-car accidents (N=852). The resultant functions are of exponential form as opposed to the frequently used logistic regression form. The exponential approach in combination with the critical speed value creates a new injury risk pattern better fitting for high speed/high energy crashes. Presented is a family of pedestrian injury risk functions for an arbitrary injury severity. Thus, the effectiveness of an ADAS can be assessed for mitigation of different injury severities using the same injury risk function and relying on the internal soundness of the risk function with regard to different injury severity levels. For the assessment of emergency braking ADAS, a Zone of Effective Endangerment Increase (ZEEI), the speed interval in which a one percent speed increase results at least in a one percent of injury risk increase, is defined. The methodology presented is kept in such general terms that a direct adaption to other accident configurations is easily done. PMID:24406954

  4. Pedestrian injury risk functions based on contour lines of equal injury severity using real world pedestrian/passenger-car accident data

    PubMed Central

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2013-01-01

    Injury risk assessment plays a pivotal role in the assessment of the effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as they specify the injury reduction potential of the system. The usual way to describe injury risks is by use of injury risk functions, i.e. specifying the probability of an injury of a given severity occurring at a specific technical accident severity (collision speed). A method for the generation of a family of risk functions for different levels of injury severity is developed. The injury severity levels are determined by use of a rescaled version of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) namely the ISSx. The injury risk curves for each collision speed is then obtained by fixing the boundary conditions and use of a case-by-case validated GIDAS subset of pedestrian-car accidents (N=852). The resultant functions are of exponential form as opposed to the frequently used logistic regression form. The exponential approach in combination with the critical speed value creates a new injury risk pattern better fitting for high speed/high energy crashes. Presented is a family of pedestrian injury risk functions for an arbitrary injury severity. Thus, the effectiveness of an ADAS can be assessed for mitigation of different injury severities using the same injury risk function and relying on the internal soundness of the risk function with regard to different injury severity levels. For the assessment of emergency braking ADAS, a Zone of Effective Endangerment Increase (ZEEI), the speed interval in which a one percent speed increase results at least in a one percent of injury risk increase, is defined. The methodology presented is kept in such general terms that a direct adaption to other accident configurations is easily done. PMID:24406954

  5. Pedestrian injury risk functions based on contour lines of equal injury severity using real world pedestrian/passenger-car accident data.

    PubMed

    Niebuhr, Tobias; Junge, Mirko; Achmus, Stefanie

    2013-01-01

    Injury risk assessment plays a pivotal role in the assessment of the effectiveness of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) as they specify the injury reduction potential of the system. The usual way to describe injury risks is by use of injury risk functions, i.e. specifying the probability of an injury of a given severity occurring at a specific technical accident severity (collision speed). A method for the generation of a family of risk functions for different levels of injury severity is developed. The injury severity levels are determined by use of a rescaled version of the Injury Severity Score (ISS) namely the ISSx. The injury risk curves for each collision speed is then obtained by fixing the boundary conditions and use of a case-by-case validated GIDAS subset of pedestrian-car accidents (N=852). The resultant functions are of exponential form as opposed to the frequently used logistic regression form. The exponential approach in combination with the critical speed value creates a new injury risk pattern better fitting for high speed/high energy crashes. Presented is a family of pedestrian injury risk functions for an arbitrary injury severity. Thus, the effectiveness of an ADAS can be assessed for mitigation of different injury severities using the same injury risk function and relying on the internal soundness of the risk function with regard to different injury severity levels. For the assessment of emergency braking ADAS, a Zone of Effective Endangerment Increase (ZEEI), the speed interval in which a one percent speed increase results at least in a one percent of injury risk increase, is defined. The methodology presented is kept in such general terms that a direct adaption to other accident configurations is easily done.

  6. [The mortality because of road accidents and means of its reduction].

    PubMed

    2011-01-01

    The road traumatism has a special place in the structure of trauma mortality due to severe aftermath for population health and enormous burden on public health system. The damage resulted of road accidents impacts the social, demographic, medical and economic sectors. Most of the existing systems of road accidents outcomes prevention are targeted to the primary (prevention of trauma occurrence or decrease of their severity) and secondary (supply of adequate medical care) prevention. The review analyses the system of preventive measures directed at prevention of road traumatism. The issues of supplying of adequate medical care to victims on all its stages are discussed. The particular attention is paid to the issues of pre-hospital stage, the known models of organization of medical care to victims on pre-hospital stage, the major directions of modernization of the system of pre-hospital medical care of road accident victims.

  7. Chronobiologic perspectives of black time--Accident risk is greatest at night: An opinion paper.

    PubMed

    Reinberg, Alain; Smolensky, Michael H; Riedel, Marc; Touitou, Yvan; Le Floc'h, Nadine; Clarisse, René; Marlot, Michel; Berrez, Stéphane; Pelisse, Didier; Mauvieux, Benoît

    2015-01-01

    Simon Folkard in 1997 introduced the phrase black time to draw attention to the fact that the risk of driving accidents (DA) is greater during the night than day in usually diurnally active persons. The 24 h temporal pattern in DA entails circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleep propensity, cognitive and physical performance, and behavior that are controlled, at least in part, by endogenous clocks. This opinion paper extends the concept of black time to reports of excess nighttime accidents and injuries of workers and nocturnal occurrence of certain man-caused catastrophes. We explore the chronobiology of work-related black time accidents and injuries taking into account laboratory and field investigations describing, respectively, circadian rhythms in cognitive performance and errors and mistakes by employees in the conduct of routine occupational tasks. Additionally, we present results of studies pertaining to 24 h patterns of both the number and relative risk (number of events per h/number of workers exposed per h) of work-related accidents (WRA) and injuries (WRI) as well as indices of performance and alertness of a self-selected homogenous survivor cohort of French firefighters (FFs) to explore two possible explanations of black time, namely, 24 h variation in sleep propensity/drossiness characterized by a nocturnal peak and circadian rhythms in cognitive performance characterized by a nocturnal trough. We propose the 24 h pattern of WRA and WRI, particularly of FFs and other highly skilled self-selected cohorts, is more strongly linked to circadian rhythms of fatigue and sleepiness than cognitive performance. Other possible explanations--suppressed expression of circadian rhythms and/or unmasking of ultradian periodicities in cognitive performance in specific circumstances, e.g., highly stressful work, competitive, or life-threatening settings, are also discussed. PMID:26181466

  8. Risk Reduction Education: Voices from the Field

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamorey, Suzanne

    2010-01-01

    Teens with disabilities need information about risk topics such as addiction, abuse, sex, and delinquency to make healthy choices as they participate in mainstream society. This article presents questionnaire-based information provided by special educators in secondary schools about their efforts, limitations, and needs in providing risk reduction…

  9. Building Capacity for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McAdoo, B. G.; Bryner, V.

    2013-05-01

    Disaster risk is acutely high in many emerging economies due to a combination of geophysical hazards and social and ecological vulnerabilities. The risk associated with natural hazards can be a critical component of a nation's wealth, hence knowledge of these hazards will affect foreign investment in these emergent economies. On the hazard side of the risk profile, geophysicists research the frequency and magnitude of the extant hazards. These geophysicists, both local and foreign, have a responsibility to communicate these risks in the public sphere - whether they are through the mass media, or in personal conversations. Because of this implicit responsibility, it is incumbent upon geophysicists to understand the overall risk, not just the hazards. When it comes to communicating these risks, local scientists are often more effective because they speak the language, understand the social context, and are often connected to various modes of communication unavailable to foreign researchers. Investment in multidisciplinary undergraduate education is critical, as is training of established local scientists in understanding the complexities of risk assessment as well as communicating these risks effectively to broad audiences. Onagawa, Japan. 2011.

  10. Management of Ultimate Risk of Nuclear Power Plants by Source Terms - Lessons Learned from the Chernobyl Accident

    SciTech Connect

    Genn Saji

    2006-07-01

    The term 'ultimate risk' is used here to describe the probabilities and radiological consequences that should be incorporated in siting, containment design and accident management of nuclear power plants for hypothetical accidents. It is closely related with the source terms specified in siting criteria which assures an adequate separation of radioactive inventories of the plants from the public, in the event of a hypothetical and severe accident situation. The author would like to point out that current source terms which are based on the information from the Windscale accident (1957) through TID-14844 are very outdated and do not incorporate lessons learned from either the Three Miles Island (TMI, 1979) nor Chernobyl accident (1986), two of the most severe accidents ever experienced. As a result of the observations of benign radionuclides released at TMI, the technical community in the US felt that a more realistic evaluation of severe reactor accident source terms was necessary. In this background, the 'source term research project' was organized in 1984 to respond to these challenges. Unfortunately, soon after the time of the final report from this project was released, the Chernobyl accident occurred. Due to the enormous consequences induced by then accident, the one time optimistic perspectives in establishing a more realistic source term were completely shattered. The Chernobyl accident, with its human death toll and dispersion of a large part of the fission fragments inventories into the environment, created a significant degradation in the public's acceptance of nuclear energy throughout the world. In spite of this, nuclear communities have been prudent in responding to the public's anxiety towards the ultimate safety of nuclear plants, since there still remained many unknown points revolving around the mechanism of the Chernobyl accident. In order to resolve some of these mysteries, the author has performed a scoping study of the dispersion and deposition

  11. Risk Reduction and Resource Pooling on a Cooperation Task

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pietras, Cynthia J.; Cherek, Don R.; Lane, Scott D.; Tcheremissine, Oleg

    2006-01-01

    Two experiments investigated choice in adult humans on a simulated cooperation task to evaluate a risk-reduction account of sharing based on the energy-budget rule. The energy-budget rule is an optimal foraging model that predicts risk-averse choices when net energy gains exceed energy requirements (positive energy budget) and risk-prone choices…

  12. Lifestyle strategies for cardiovascular risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Rippe, James M; Angelopoulos, Theodore J

    2014-10-01

    Daily lifestyle practices and habits profoundly affect the likelihood of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD). Abundant research and multiple recent consensus documents support the role of regular physical activity, not smoking cigarettes, maintaining a healthy body weight, controlling cholesterol levels, and controlling blood pressure to lower the risk of CVD. These strategies also play important roles in avoiding ever developing risk factors. Despite overwhelming knowledge in this area, adherence to lifestyle strategies remains suboptimal. Challenges remain in helping the public to act upon the current knowledge in this area. Recent guidelines for managing cholesterol and blood pressure provide new guidance in these areas. Controversy, however, exists related to specific recommendations in both of these areas. Similar strategies that are applied to adults for improving lifestyle habits and practices to lower CVD risk also apply to children and adolescents. A clear consensus exists that lifestyle strategies play a critical role in preventing, managing, and reducing cardiovascular disease and its risk factors.

  13. Risk Reduction on X-33/RLV Engines

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crowley, Tim

    1999-01-01

    Risk management has received considerable attention in the X-33 and Reusable Launch Vehicle (RLV) program due to aggressive schedules, limited funding. and planned private investment to develop the commercial VentureStar vehicle. As an X-33 and RLV team member and main propulsion supplier, Boeing Rocketdyn Propulsion and Power has addressed risk through a methodical application of systems engineering in identifying, assessing, and mitigating risks. The methods employed involve rigorous risk mitigation planning early in development, continuous risk monitoring and assessment during the course of development, and the systematic verification of compliance with technical requirements prior to delivery. In addition, an engine system reliability analysis was conducted to reduce risk. In July 1996, NASA selected Lockheed Martin's "Skunk Works" (LMSW) as the lead contractor for the X-33 and RLV program. The X-33 vehicle is a half-scale pathfinder for the full-scale RLV. The LMSW RLV design is a lifting body shaped vehicle employing linear aerospike engine provided propulsion. The initial X-33 flight is planned for the summer of 2000, and the initial VentureStar flight is planned for between 2005 and 2007.

  14. [Nuclear accidents and iodine prophylaxis. Part 1: Risks due to irradiation of the thyroid gland].

    PubMed

    Smeesters, P; Frühling, J; Van Bladel, L; Wambersie, A

    1998-12-01

    In the frame of the emergency procedures in the case of an accident in a nuclear plant, this paper presents a survey of the information available on the risks related to the irradiation of the thyroid gland. Attention is focused on thyroid cancer resulting from an exposure to radioactive isotopes of iodine and especially and iodine-131. The consequences of the medical exposures as well as of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki irradiations are recalled first. Then the recently available informations on the effects on the populations exposed after the Tchernobyl accident are analysed more in details. Ten years after the accident, the most striking and the least questionable effects is a significant increase of the incidence of differentiated thyroid cancer in children, in the areas most exposed to the initial radioactive clouds. Young children are particularly vulnerable to this type of cancer which is of aggressive nature and shows a short latency period. These observations justify an iodine prophylaxis for the populations living in the vicinity of nuclear plants. Special attention should be paid to the protection of young children.

  15. Mission Risk Reduction Regulatory Change Management

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Scroggins, Sharon

    2007-01-01

    NASA Headquarters Environmental Management Division supports NASA's mission to pioneer the future in space exploration, scientific discovery, and aeronautics research by integrating environmental considerations into programs and projects early-on, thereby proactively reducing NASA's exposure to institutional, programmatic and operational risk. As part of this effort, NASA established the Principal Center for Regulatory Risk Analysis and Communication (RRAC PC) as a resource for detecting, analyzing, and communicating environmental regulatory risks to the NASA stakeholder community. The RRAC PC focuses on detecting emerging environmental regulations and other operational change drivers that may pose risks to NASA programs and facilities, and effectively communicating the potential risks. For example, regulatory change may restrict how and where certain activities or operations may be conducted. Regulatory change can also directly affect the ability to use certain materials by mandating a production phase-out or restricting usage applications of certain materials. Regulatory change can result in significant adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities due to NASA's stringent performance requirements for materials and components related to human-rated space vehicles. Even if a regulation does not directly affect NASA operations, U.S. and international regulations can pose program risks indirectly through requirements levied on manufacturers and vendors of components and materials. For example, manufacturers can change their formulations to comply with new regulatory requirements. Such changes can require time-consuming and costly requalification certification for use in human spaceflight programs. The RRAC PC has implemented a system for proactively managing regulatory change to minimize potential adverse impacts to NASA programs and facilities. This presentation highlights the process utilized by the RRACPC to communicate regulatory change and the associated

  16. Risk communication with Fukushima residents affected by the Fukushima Daiichi accident at whole-body counting

    SciTech Connect

    Gunji, I.; Furuno, A.; Yonezawa, R.; Sugiyama, K.

    2013-07-01

    After the Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the Tokai Research and Development Center of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) have had direct dialogue as risk communication with Fukushima residents who underwent whole-body counting examination (WBC). The purpose of the risk communication was to exchange information and opinions about radiation in order to mitigate Fukushima residents' anxiety and stress. Two kinds of opinion surveys were performed: one survey evaluated residents' views of the nuclear accident itself and the second survey evaluated the management of WBC examination as well as the quality of JAEA's communication skills on risks. It appears that most Fukushima residents seem to have reduced their anxiety level after the direct dialogue. The results of the surveys show that Fukushima residents have the deepest anxiety and concern about their long-term health issues and that they harbor anger toward the government and TEPCO. On the other hand, many WBC patients and patients' relatives have expressed gratitude for help in reducing their feelings of anxiety.

  17. Pedestrian fatality risk in accidents at unsignalized zebra crosswalks in Poland.

    PubMed

    Olszewski, Piotr; Szagała, Piotr; Wolański, Maciej; Zielińska, Anna

    2015-11-01

    Poland has the second worst pedestrian fatality rate in the European Union. In the years 2007-2012, 9101 pedestrians were killed and 71328 injured on Polish roads. Almost 30% of pedestrian injury accidents took place at unsignalized zebra crosswalks. Based on police accident database, the worst problem in terms of numbers of fatalities occurs in built-up areas, on two-way undivided roads and at mid-block locations. Especially at risk are older people - almost 73% of pedestrians killed were 55 years or older. In order to show the effect of various factors on pedestrian fatality risk, a binary logit model with interaction terms was developed. The model shows that the following factors increase the probability of pedestrian's death at unsignalized zebra crosswalks: darkness, especially with no street lighting, divided road, two-way road, non built-up area, mid-block crosswalk location and summer time period. Speed limit is a crucial factor: probability of death increases by 37% with every 10km/h rise in the speed limit. Fatality risk increases also with victim's age and is higher for male pedestrians.

  18. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  19. Causes and risk factors for fatal accidents in non-commercial twin engine piston general aviation aircraft.

    PubMed

    Boyd, Douglas D

    2015-04-01

    Accidents in twin-engine aircraft carry a higher risk of fatality compared with single engine aircraft and constitute 9% of all general aviation accidents. The different flight profile (higher airspeed, service ceiling, increased fuel load, and aircraft yaw in engine failure) may make comparable studies on single-engine aircraft accident causes less relevant. The objective of this study was to identify the accident causes for non-commercial operations in twin engine aircraft. A NTSB accident database query for accidents in twin piston engine airplanes of 4-8 seat capacity with a maximum certified weight of 3000-8000lbs. operating under 14CFR Part 91 for the period spanning 2002 and 2012 returned 376 accidents. Accident causes and contributing factors were as per the NTSB final report categories. Total annual flight hour data for the twin engine piston aircraft fleet were obtained from the FAA. Statistical analyses employed Chi Square, Fisher's Exact and logistic regression analysis. Neither the combined fatal/non-fatal accident nor the fatal accident rate declined over the period spanning 2002-2012. Under visual weather conditions, the largest number, n=27, (27%) of fatal accidents was attributed to malfunction with a failure to follow single engine procedures representing the most common contributing factor. In degraded visibility, poor instrument approach procedures resulted in the greatest proportion of fatal crashes. Encountering thunderstorms was the most lethal of all accident causes with all occupants sustaining fatal injuries. At night, a failure to maintain obstacle/terrain clearance was the most common accident cause leading to 36% of fatal crashes. The results of logistic regression showed that operations at night (OR 3.7), off airport landings (OR 14.8) and post-impact fire (OR 7.2) all carried an excess risk of a fatal flight. This study indicates training areas that should receive increased emphasis for twin-engine training/recency. First, increased

  20. Perceived Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies in Study Abroad Programs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Luethge, Denise J.

    2004-01-01

    The study abroad program (SAP) meets the criteria of a risky purchase, namely of being non-tangible, possessing hidden qualities, being expensive and cannot being able to be tested prior to purchase. In fact, SAPs may score highly on a number of risk components, especially financial risk (expensive), psychological risk (anxiety), physical risk…

  1. Taking stock of decentralized disaster risk reduction in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grady, Anthony; Gersonius, Berry; Makarigakis, Alexandros

    2016-09-01

    The Sendai Framework, which outlines the global course on disaster risk reduction until 2030, places strong importance on the role of local government in disaster risk reduction. An aim of decentralization is to increase the influence and authority of local government in decision making. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence of the extent, character and effects of decentralization in current disaster risk reduction implementation, and of the barriers that are most critical to this. This paper evaluates decentralization in relation to disaster risk reduction in Indonesia, chosen for its recent actions to decentralize governance of DRR coupled with a high level of disaster risk. An analytical framework was developed to evaluate the various dimensions of decentralized disaster risk reduction, which necessitated the use of a desk study, semi-structured interviews and a gap analysis. Key barriers to implementation in Indonesia included: capacity gaps at lower institutional levels, low compliance with legislation, disconnected policies, issues in communication and coordination and inadequate resourcing. However, any of these barriers are not unique to disaster risk reduction, and similar barriers have been observed for decentralization in other developing countries in other public sectors.

  2. Opportunities and strategies for breast cancer prevention through risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Mahoney, Martin C; Bevers, Therese; Linos, Eleni; Willett, Walter C

    2008-01-01

    Due to the high incidence of breast cancer among US females, risk-reduction strategies are essential. Before considering approaches to breast cancer risk reduction, it is important for clinicians to complete individualized qualitative and quantitative assessments of risk for their patients in order to inform physicians' clinical decision making and management and to engage patients collaboratively in a thorough discussion of risks and benefits. This review will summarize information on potential pharmacologic, nutritional, surgical, and behavioral approaches to reducing breast cancer risk. While there is no clear evidence that specific dietary components can effectively reduce breast cancer risk, weight gain and obesity in adulthood are risk factors for the development of postmenopausal breast cancer. Alcohol consumption, even at moderate levels, increases breast cancer risk, although some of the detrimental effects may be reduced by sufficient folate intake. Women at increased risk of breast cancer can opt to reduce their breast cancer risk through the use of tamoxifen or raloxifene; other chemopreventive agents remain under investigation. Surgical approaches to risk reductions are restricted to those patients with a substantially increased risk of developing breast cancer. Patients should be encouraged to maintain a healthy lifestyle for their overall well-being and to remain up to date with recommendations for screening and surveillance. PMID:18981297

  3. Expertise and policy-making in disaster risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Walch, Colin

    2015-08-01

    The third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction ended with an agreement lacking ambition. The conference showed that better communication between the scientific community and decision-makers is needed to develop informed frameworks.

  4. Cancer Risks in Aluminum Reduction Plant Workers

    PubMed Central

    Labrèche, France

    2014-01-01

    Objective and Methods: This review examines epidemiological evidence relating to cancers in the primary aluminum industry where most of what is known relates to Söderberg operations or to mixed Söderberg/prebake operations. Results and Conclusions: Increased lung and bladder cancer risks have been reported in Söderberg workers from several countries, but not in all. After adjustment for smoking, these cancer risks still increase with cumulative exposure to benzo(a)pyrene, used as an index of coal tar pitch volatiles exposure. Limited evidence has been gathered in several cohorts for an increased risk of tumors at other sites, including stomach, pancreas, rectum/rectosigmoid junction, larynx, buccal cavity/pharynx, kidney, brain/nervous system, prostate, and lymphatic/hematopoietic tissues (in particular non-Hodgkin lymphoma, Hodgkin disease, and leukemia). Nevertheless, for most of these tumor sites, the relationship with specific exposures has not been demonstrated clearly and further follow-up of workers is warranted. PMID:24806725

  5. Asteroid Airbursts: Risk Assessment and Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Boslough, M.

    2015-12-01

    Airbursts are events in which small (meters to tens-of-meters in diameter) asteroids deposit most of their energy in the atmosphere with a total energy greater than small nuclear explosions (>0.1 kilotons of TNT). The airburst risk is higher than previous assessments for two reasons. First, they are more frequent than previously thought. The Tunguska-class (~40 meters) population estimate has doubled, and Chelyabinsk-class (~20 meters) has increased by a factor of 2.6. Second, asteroid airbursts are significantly more damaging than previously assumed. In most cases, they more efficiently couple energy to the surface than nuclear explosions of the same yield. Past Near-Earth Object (NEO) risk assessments concluded that the largest asteroids (> 1 km) dominated the hazard. Large NEOs represent only a tiny fraction of the population but the potential for global catastrophe means that the contribution from low-probability, high-consequence events is large. Nearly 90% of these objects, none of which is on a collision course, have been catalogued. This has reduced their assessed near-term statistical risk by more than an order of magnitude because completion is highest for the largest and most dangerous. The relative risk from small objects would therefore be increasing even if their absolute assessed risk were not. Uncertainty in the number of small NEOs remains large and can only be reduced by expanded surveys. One strategy would be to count small NEOs making close passes in statistically significant numbers. For example, there are about 25 times as many objects of a given size that pass within the distance of geosynchronous orbit than collide with the earth, and 2000 times as many pass within a lunar distance (accounting for gravitational focusing). An asteroid the size of the Chelyabinsk impactor (~20 m) could potentially be observed within geosynchronous orbit every two years and within lunar orbit nearly once a week. A Tunguska-sized asteroid (~40 m) passes within a

  6. Risk to the public from carbon fibers released in civil aircraft accidents

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1980-01-01

    Because carbon fibers are strong, stiff, and lightweight, they are attractive for use in composite structures. Because they also have high electrical conductivity, free carbon fibers settling on electrical conductors can cause malfunctions. If released from the composite by burning, the fibers may become a hazard to exposed electrical and electronic equipment. As part of a Federal study of the potential hazard associated with the use of carbon fibers, NASA assessed the public risk associated with crash fire accidents of civil aircraft. The NASA study projected a dramatic increase in the use of carbon composites in civil aircraft and developed technical data to support the risk assessment. Personal injury was found to be extremely unlikely. In 1993, the year chosen as a focus for the study, the expected annual cost of damage caused by released carbon fibers is only $1000. Even the worst-case carbon fiber incident simulated (costing $178,000 once in 34,000 years) was relatively low-cost compared with the usual air transport accident cost. On the basis of these observations, the NASA study concluded that exploitation of composites should continue, that additional protection of avionics is unnecessary, and that development of alternate materials specifically to overcome this problem is not justified.

  7. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident.

  8. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. "rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March)," "deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June)," "20-mSv exposure," and "100-mSv exposure." The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d-much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident. PMID:26359666

  9. Was the Risk from Nursing-Home Evacuation after the Fukushima Accident Higher than the Radiation Risk?

    PubMed Central

    Murakami, Michio; Ono, Kyoko; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Oka, Tosihiro; Kami, Masahiro; Oki, Taikan

    2015-01-01

    After the 2011 accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, nursing-home residents and staff were evacuated voluntarily from damaged areas to avoid radiation exposure. Unfortunately, the evacuation resulted in increased mortalities among nursing home residents. We assessed the risk trade-off between evacuation and radiation for 191 residents and 184 staff at three nursing homes by using the same detriment indicator, namely loss of life expectancy (LLE), under four scenarios, i.e. “rapid evacuation (in accordance with the actual situation; i.e. evacuation on 22 March),” “deliberate evacuation (i.e. evacuation on 20 June),” “20-mSv exposure,” and “100-mSv exposure.” The LLE from evacuation-related mortality among nursing home residents was assessed with survival probability data from nursing homes in the city of Minamisoma and the city of Soma. The LLE from radiation mortality was calculated from the estimated age-specific mortality rates from leukemia and all solid cancers based on the additional effective doses and the survival probabilities. The total LLE of residents due to evacuation-related risks in rapid evacuation was 11,000 persons-d—much higher than the total LLEs of residents and staff due to radiation in the other scenarios (27, 1100, and 5800 persons-d for deliberate evacuation, 20 mSv-exposure, and 100 mSv-exposure, respectively). The latitude for reducing evacuation risks among nursing home residents is surprisingly large. Evacuation regulation and planning should therefore be well balanced with the trade-offs against radiation risks. This is the first quantitative assessment of the risk trade-off between radiation exposure and evacuation after a nuclear power plant accident. PMID:26359666

  10. [Iodine 131: biokinetics, radiation exposure and risk assessment with reference to the reactor accident at Chernobyl].

    PubMed

    Moser, E; Roedler, H D

    1987-06-01

    Following the reactor accident at Chernobyl, this paper describes the biokinetics of radioiodine in man and discusses the radiation exposure resulting from intake of 131I. The risk of radiation-induced thyroid carcinomas and of congenital abnormalities is evaluated. Assuming a linear dose/risk relationship, one can calculate an increase in mortality from thyroid carcinomas amongst children in southern Germany of 100 to 101 per million children. For adults in southern Germany, and for the rest of the population in Germany, the figure is considerably lower. Gonadal dose from the 131I released is so small, compared with the annual natural radiation exposure, that it is not appropriate to discuss genetic effects.

  11. Special Diabetes Program for Indians: Retention in Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Zhang, Lijing; Beals, Janette; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined the associations between participant and site characteristics and retention in a multisite cardiovascular disease risk reduction project. Design and Methods: Data were derived from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project, an intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk among American…

  12. Existential risks: exploring a robust risk reduction strategy.

    PubMed

    Jebari, Karim

    2015-06-01

    A small but growing number of studies have aimed to understand, assess and reduce existential risks, or risks that threaten the continued existence of mankind. However, most attention has been focused on known and tangible risks. This paper proposes a heuristic for reducing the risk of black swan extinction events. These events are, as the name suggests, stochastic and unforeseen when they happen. Decision theory based on a fixed model of possible outcomes cannot properly deal with this kind of event. Neither can probabilistic risk analysis. This paper will argue that the approach that is referred to as engineering safety could be applied to reducing the risk from black swan extinction events. It will also propose a conceptual sketch of how such a strategy may be implemented: isolated, self-sufficient, and continuously manned underground refuges. Some characteristics of such refuges are also described, in particular the psychosocial aspects. Furthermore, it is argued that this implementation of the engineering safety strategy safety barriers would be effective and plausible and could reduce the risk of an extinction event in a wide range of possible (known and unknown) scenarios. Considering the staggering opportunity cost of an existential catastrophe, such strategies ought to be explored more vigorously. PMID:24891130

  13. New algorithms for optimal reduction of technical risks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Todinov, M. T.

    2013-06-01

    The article features exact algorithms for reduction of technical risk by (1) optimal allocation of resources in the case where the total potential loss from several sources of risk is a sum of the potential losses from the individual sources; (2) optimal allocation of resources to achieve a maximum reduction of system failure; and (3) making an optimal choice among competing risky prospects. The article demonstrates that the number of activities in a risky prospect is a key consideration in selecting the risky prospect. As a result, the maximum expected profit criterion, widely used for making risk decisions, is fundamentally flawed, because it does not consider the impact of the number of risk-reward activities in the risky prospects. A popular view, that if a single risk-reward bet with positive expected profit is unacceptable then a sequence of such identical risk-reward bets is also unacceptable, has been analysed and proved incorrect.

  14. Error reduction and risk management in cytopathology.

    PubMed

    Frable, William J

    2007-05-01

    Currently, tort reform is not a major priority in either the Congress of the United States or in state legislatures. Thus, it is fortunate that medical negligence claims against pathologists are relatively infrequent, at 8.3% per year per 100 insured pathologists (data from the Doctors' Company, 2000-2003). However, claims for "missed" cervical cytology specimens rank third, behind those for alleged misinterpretation of breast biopsies and pigmented skin lesions. The severity of cervical cytology errors is high, at almost $700,000 per claim, surpassed only by those concerning melanoma. There are common threads that appear consistently in the analysis of slides from allegedly misdiagnosed cervical cytology cases, including small-cell variants of high-grade squamous intraepithelial neoplasia (HGSIL), present in small numbers; hyperchromatic crowded cell groups; atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS); smears taken during menses; other bloody smears, particularly with degenerative features or excessive inflammation; others showing atypical repair; and unsatisfactory samples. It is important for pathologists to spend time with cytotechnologists to emphasize the patterns of abnormal smears at low microscopic magnification and those backgrounds featuring blood and inflammation which require particular attention. Managing the "look-back" requirement of the Clinical Laboratory Amendments of 1988 (CLIA88) is also crucial; the need to issue amended reports as a consequence of that provision is quite rare. Procedures for administrating and reporting retrospective reviews under the CLIA88 should be clearly outlined in a peer-reviewed procedure document in each laboratory. They should be reviewed and approved by risk managers or insurance carriers, and documented in such a manner that one obtains maximal protection from legal discovery. Consumer education is particularly important in maintaining laboratory performance and reducing risk from error in

  15. Reductions in HIV risk among runaway youth.

    PubMed

    Rotheram-Borus, Mary Jane; Song, Juwon; Gwadz, Marya; Lee, Martha; Van Rossem, Ronan; Koopman, Cheryl

    2003-09-01

    Runaway youth are 6-12 times more likely to become infected with HIV than other youth. Using a quasi-experimental design, the efficacy of an HIV prevention program was evaluated over 2 years among 2 groups of runaways: (1) those at 2 shelters who received Street Smart, an intensive HIV intervention program, and (2) youth at 2 control shelters. Street Smart provided youth with access to health care and condoms and delivered a 10-session skill-focused prevention program based on social learning theory to youth. Prior to analysis of the intervention's outcomes, propensity scores were used to identify comparable subgroups of youth in the intervention (n = 101) and control conditions (n = 86). Compared to females in the control condition, females in the intervention condition significantly reduced their unprotected sexual acts at 2 years and alcohol use, marijuana use, and the number of drugs used over 12 months. Male adolescents in the intervention condition showed significant reductions in marijuana use over 6 months compared to control youth. Adolescent HIV prevention programs must proactively identify mechanisms for maintaining behavior change over the long-term, and innovative research designs are needed to allow examination of agency-level interventions.

  16. Developments in seismic monitoring for risk reduction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Celebi, M.

    2007-01-01

    This paper presents recent state-of-the-art developments to obtain displacements and drift ratios for seismic monitoring and damage assessment of buildings. In most cases, decisions on safety of buildings following seismic events are based on visual inspections of the structures. Real-time instrumental measurements using GPS or double integration of accelerations, however, offer a viable alternative. Relevant parameters, such as the type of connections and structural characteristics (including storey geometry), can be estimated to compute drifts corresponding to several pre-selected threshold stages of damage. Drift ratios determined from real-time monitoring can then be compared to these thresholds in order to estimate damage conditions drift ratios. This approach is demonstrated in three steel frame buildings in San Francisco, California. Recently recorded data of strong shaking from these buildings indicate that the monitoring system can be a useful tool in rapid assessment of buildings and other structures following an earthquake. Such systems can also be used for risk monitoring, as a method to assess performance-based design and analysis procedures, for long-term assessment of structural characteristics of a building, and as a possible long-term damage detection tool.

  17. MADYMO simulation of children in cycle accidents: a novel approach in risk assessment.

    PubMed

    McNally, D S; Rosenberg, N M

    2013-10-01

    Head injuries are a significant cause of death and injury to child cyclists both on and off the road. Current evaluations of the effectiveness of cycle helmets rely on simplified mechanical testing or the analysis of aggregated accident statistics. This paper presents a direct evaluation of helmet efficacy by using computational modelling to simulate a range of realistic accident scenarios, including loss of control, collision with static objects and vehicle impact. A 6-year-old cyclist was modelled (as a Hybrid III 6-year-old dummy), in addition to a typical children's bicycle and a vehicle using the MADYMO dynamics software package. Simulations were performed using ranges of cyclist position, cycle speed and vehicle speed with and without a helmet that meets current standards. Wearing a cycle helmet was found to reduce the probability of head injuries, reducing the average probability of fatality over the scenarios studied from 40% to 0.3%. Similarly, helmet wearing reduced the probability of neck injuries (average probability of fatality reduced from 11% to 1%). There was no evidence that helmet wearing increased the severity of brain or neck injuries caused by rotational accelerations; in fact these were slightly reduced. Similarly, there was no evidence that increased cycling speed, such as might result from helmet related risk compensation, increased the probability of head injury. PMID:23954681

  18. A personal overview of accidents and risk management in the recreational diving industry.

    PubMed

    Gilliam, Bret

    2010-09-01

    Recently the recreational diving industry has experienced an increase in accidents and fatalities (per capita, based on reliable estimates of diver populations). Many of these incidents have resulted from a degradation of training standards for 'performance-based' learning of skills and knowledge, both for students and the instructors, dive masters, and assistants who are responsible for their initial training and subsequent courses aimed at 'advanced' curricula. The industry has also seen a decline in the experience and practical expertise of diving leadership staff responsible for the management of resorts and liveaboard diving operations. The resulting incidents have led to a rise in legal actions and settlement costs or trial verdicts. The important contributing issues in accident causation are discussed. A fundamental lack of understanding of how to effectively use the tools of risk management (waivers and releases, defensive teaching, good record keeping), as well as inadequate pre-training screening that might eliminate some participants based on age, physical condition, or pre-existing medical issues, are contributing to this increase. These factors also complicate the efficient management of litigation through the courts. The costs associated with litigation are now causing increased insurance premiums, reduced scope of coverage for some activities, and outright denial to some seeking insurance. This paper provides a personal perspective based on a 40-year involvement in all aspects of the diving industry and extensive experience in the litigation process as a consultant and expert witness. PMID:23111912

  19. Short-Term Medical Consequences of the Chernobyl Nuclear Accident: Lessons for the Future

    PubMed Central

    Gale, Robert Peter

    1988-01-01

    The author of this article discusses the world's most serious nuclear accident to date: the Chernobyl nuclear accident of April 1986. His major focus is on the short-term medical consequences of the accident, including reduction of exposure to persons at risk, evaluation of persons potentially affected, dosimetry, and specific medical interventions. PMID:21253129

  20. Powered two-wheelers road accidents and their risk perception in dense urban areas: case of Paris.

    PubMed

    Maestracci, Marion; Prochasson, François; Geffroy, Aurélie; Peccoud, Florian

    2012-11-01

    For a few years, the use of powered two-wheelers has taken off in Paris. It then became critical for the City of Paris to understand both the mechanisms leading to traffic accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers user and the perception of their risk when riding in dense urban areas. In so doing, two studies were carried out along similar lines so that their results could be compared. The first study focused on the perception of situations where accidents are most likely to occur. The second one was an analysis of police reports of accidents involving at least one powered two-wheelers and the drawing-up of prototypical accident scenarios. Comparing the results of the two studies revealed a gap between perceived and objective risks of these users. In fact, they rather fear the situations during which a car driver is changing lanes, while accidents involving them occur more often when a car driver turns (right, left or U). Knowledge of this dissonance in terms of awareness of road risks for powered two-wheelers and equally, other road users, will give the City of Paris food for thought. The promising results of this study have encouraged the City of Paris to extend it to other types of users, such as cyclists or elderly pedestrians.

  1. A UK survey of driving behaviour, fatigue, risk taking and road traffic accidents

    PubMed Central

    Smith, Andrew P

    2016-01-01

    Objective The aim of the present research was to examine associations between poor driving behaviour (DB), driving when fatigued (DF), risk taking (RT) and road traffic accidents (RTAs). Design The study involved a cross-sectional online survey of clients of an insurance company. The survey measured DB (speeding, distraction, lapses of attention and aggression), RT and frequency of driving when fatigued (DF, driving late at night, prolonged driving, driving after a demanding working day and driving with a cold). Demographic, lifestyle, job characteristics and psychosocial factors were also measured and used as covariates. Setting Cardiff, UK. Sample 3000 clients of an insurance company agreed to participate in the study, and 2856 completed the survey (68% woman, 32% man; mean age: 34 years, range 18–74 years). Main outcome measures The outcomes were RTAs (requiring medical attention; not requiring medical attention), where the person was the driver. Results Factor analyses showed that DB, RT and fatigue loaded on independent factors. Logistic regressions showed that poor DB, frequently DF and taking risks predicted medical and non-medical RTAs. These effects were additive and those who reported poor DB, driving when fatigue and taking risks were twice as likely to have an RTA. These effects remained significant when demographic, lifestyle, medical, driving, work and psychosocial factors were covaried. Conclusions Poor DB, DF and RT predict RTAs. There are now short measuring instruments that can assess these, and driver education programmes must increase awareness of these risk factors. PMID:27540100

  2. Seismic risk assessment at local level taking into account possible technological accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, N.; Larionov, V.; Bonnin, J.

    2012-04-01

    Seismic safety of population and urban territories is one of the most complicated problems of seismology and earthquake engineering worldwide. It is especially vital for the earthquake prone regions with high level of seismicity and high density of population. The paper contains the results of the recent study that was done by Seismological Center of IGE, Russian Academy of Sciences, Extreme Situations Research Center and "Rosstrojizyskaniya" Ltd aimed at verification of engineering geological conditions, updating of previous map of seismic microzonation and seismic risk assessment for the Sochi City territory. The City is located in the Krasnodar area, which is characterized by a high density population and a rather high level of seismic hazard. According to maps of review seismic zoning of the Russian Federation territory, earthquakes with intensities I = 6-10 according to the MMSK-86 scale may occur here. The City territory is located along the Black Sea shore and characterized by different level potential of landslides, mudflow, erosion and other geological hazardous processes. The Imeretinskaya valley, where future Olympic Games' facilities are under construction, are located within the marine terrace composed predominantly by gravel-pebble deposits with sand and clay with thickness more than 30 m; the bedrock at the depth of about 70 -90 m, the groundwater level encountered at depths of 0.2-4 m from the surface. According to recent seismic risk assessment at regional level for more that 60% of the Krasnodar area territory, the values of seismic risk computed taking into account the secondary technological accidents exceed the value of 1.0×10-5 1/year. Regional estimation of risk obtained for the Sochi City is equal to 35.0×10-5; contribution of technological risk to seismic one is about 5.0×10-5. The work is under way within the Russian Federal Program "Development of the Sochi City as a mountain resort in 2006 - 2014". The paper will present the results

  3. Using risk elasticity to prioritize risk reduction strategies for geographical areas and industry sectors.

    PubMed

    Li, Pei-Chiun; Ma, Hwong-wen

    2016-01-25

    The total quantity of chemical emissions does not take into account their chemical toxicity, and fails to be an accurate indicator of the potential impact on human health. The sources of released contaminants, and therefore, the potential risk, also differ based on geography. Because of the complexity of the risk, there is no integrated method to evaluate the effectiveness of risk reduction. Therefore, this study developed a method to incorporate the spatial variability of emissions into human health risk assessment to evaluate how to effectively reduce risk using risk elasticity analysis. Risk elasticity analysis, the percentage change in risk in response to the percentage change in emissions, was adopted in this study to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of risk reduction. The results show that the main industry sectors are different in each area, and that high emission in an area does not correspond to high risk. Decreasing the high emissions of certain sectors in an area does not result in efficient risk reduction in this area. This method can provide more holistic information for risk management, prevent the development of increased risk, and prioritize the risk reduction strategies.

  4. Cancer risk-reduction behaviors of breast cancer survivors.

    PubMed

    Lindsey, Ada M; Waltman, Nancy; Gross, Gloria; Ott, Carol D; Twiss, Jan

    2004-12-01

    Using secondary data analysis, the aim was to determine if postmenopausal women, who have survived breast cancer, have adopted healthy nutritional and physical activity behaviors recommended in the American Cancer Society guidelines as cancer risk-reduction strategies, and in guidelines for prevention of other chronic diseases or for improving general health. From their personal health history, women who have survived breast cancer would be likely candidates to adopt healthy behaviors recommended as cancer risk-reduction strategies or for prevention of other chronic diseases. A secondary aim was to determine the perceived general health and affective state of these women. These breast cancer survivors had a high perception of their general health, a positive affective state, and have adopted some healthy lifestyle behaviors, but they are not fully adhering to the ACS nutrition and physical activity guidelines or other health related guidelines for cancer risk reduction or prevention of other chronic diseases. PMID:15539533

  5. Cancer risk-reduction behaviors of breast cancer survivors.

    PubMed

    Lindsey, Ada M; Waltman, Nancy; Gross, Gloria; Ott, Carol D; Twiss, Jan

    2004-12-01

    Using secondary data analysis, the aim was to determine if postmenopausal women, who have survived breast cancer, have adopted healthy nutritional and physical activity behaviors recommended in the American Cancer Society guidelines as cancer risk-reduction strategies, and in guidelines for prevention of other chronic diseases or for improving general health. From their personal health history, women who have survived breast cancer would be likely candidates to adopt healthy behaviors recommended as cancer risk-reduction strategies or for prevention of other chronic diseases. A secondary aim was to determine the perceived general health and affective state of these women. These breast cancer survivors had a high perception of their general health, a positive affective state, and have adopted some healthy lifestyle behaviors, but they are not fully adhering to the ACS nutrition and physical activity guidelines or other health related guidelines for cancer risk reduction or prevention of other chronic diseases.

  6. Driving habits and risk factors for traffic accidents among sleep apnea patients--a European multi-centre cohort study.

    PubMed

    Karimi, Mahssa; Hedner, Jan; Lombardi, Carolina; Mcnicholas, Walter T; Penzel, Thomas; Riha, Renata L; Rodenstein, Daniel; Grote, Ludger

    2014-12-01

    Obstructive sleep apnea is associated with increased motor vehicle accident risk, and improved detection of patients at risk is of importance. The present study addresses potential risk factors in the European Sleep Apnea Database and includes patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnea [n = 8476, age 51.5 (12.5) years, body mass index 31.0 (6.6) kg m(-2) , 82.4% driver's licence holders]. Driving distance (km year(-1) ), driver's licence type, sleep apnea severity, sleepiness and comorbidities were assessed. Previously validated risk factors for accident history: Epworth Sleepiness Scale ≥16; habitual sleep time ≤5 h; use of hypnotics; and driving ≥15 000 km year(-1) were analysed across European regions. At least one risk factor was identified in male and female drivers, 68.75 and 51.3%, respectively. The occurrence of the risk factors was similar across Europe, with only a lower rate in the eastern region (P = 0.001). The mean number of risk factors increased across classes of sleep apnea severity. Frequent driving was prevalent [14.0 (interquartile range 8.0-20.0) × 10(3)  km year(-1) ] and 32.7% of drivers had severe obstructive sleep apnea [apnea-hypopnea index 50.3 (38.8-66.0) n h(-1) ]. Obesity, shorter sleep time and younger age were associated with increased traffic exposure (P ≤ 0.03). In conclusion, the risk factors associated with accident history were common among European patients with suspected obstructive sleep apnea, but varied between geographical regions. There was a weak covariation between occurrence of risk factors and clinically determined apnea severity but frequent driving, a strong risk factor for accidents, was over-represented. Systematic evaluation of accident-related risk factors is important to detect sleep apnea patients at risk for motor vehicle accidents.

  7. Radiation dose reduction efficiency of buildings after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

    PubMed

    Monzen, Satoru; Hosoda, Masahiro; Osanai, Minoru; Tokonami, Shinji

    2014-01-01

    Numerous radionuclides were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (F1-NPS) in Japan following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. Local residents have been eager to calculate their individual radiation exposure. Thus, absorbed dose rates in the indoor and outdoor air at evacuation sites in the Fukushima Prefecture were measured using a gamma-ray measuring devices, and individual radiation exposure was calculated by assessing the radiation dose reduction efficiency (defined as the ratio of absorbed dose rate in the indoor air to the absorbed dose rate in the outdoor air) of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings. Between March 2011 and July 2011, dose reduction efficiencies of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings were 0.55 ± 0.04, 0.15 ± 0.02, and 0.19 ± 0.04, respectively. The reduction efficiency of wood structures was 1.4 times higher than that reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The efficiency of reinforced concrete was similar to previously reported values, whereas that of aluminum structures has not been previously reported. Dose reduction efficiency increased in proportion to the distance from F1-NPS at 8 of the 18 evacuation sites. Time variations did not reflect dose reduction efficiencies at evacuation sites although absorbed dose rates in the outdoor air decreased. These data suggest that dose reduction efficiency depends on structure types, levels of contamination, and evacuee behaviors at evacuation sites.

  8. Radiation Dose Reduction Efficiency of Buildings after the Accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station

    PubMed Central

    Monzen, Satoru; Hosoda, Masahiro; Osanai, Minoru; Tokonami, Shinji

    2014-01-01

    Numerous radionuclides were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (F1-NPS) in Japan following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. Local residents have been eager to calculate their individual radiation exposure. Thus, absorbed dose rates in the indoor and outdoor air at evacuation sites in the Fukushima Prefecture were measured using a gamma-ray measuring devices, and individual radiation exposure was calculated by assessing the radiation dose reduction efficiency (defined as the ratio of absorbed dose rate in the indoor air to the absorbed dose rate in the outdoor air) of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings. Between March 2011 and July 2011, dose reduction efficiencies of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings were 0.55±0.04, 0.15±0.02, and 0.19±0.04, respectively. The reduction efficiency of wood structures was 1.4 times higher than that reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The efficiency of reinforced concrete was similar to previously reported values, whereas that of aluminum structures has not been previously reported. Dose reduction efficiency increased in proportion to the distance from F1-NPS at 8 of the 18 evacuation sites. Time variations did not reflect dose reduction efficiencies at evacuation sites although absorbed dose rates in the outdoor air decreased. These data suggest that dose reduction efficiency depends on structure types, levels of contamination, and evacuee behaviors at evacuation sites. PMID:24999992

  9. Radiation dose reduction efficiency of buildings after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station.

    PubMed

    Monzen, Satoru; Hosoda, Masahiro; Osanai, Minoru; Tokonami, Shinji

    2014-01-01

    Numerous radionuclides were released from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station (F1-NPS) in Japan following the magnitude 9.0 earthquake and tsunami on March 11, 2011. Local residents have been eager to calculate their individual radiation exposure. Thus, absorbed dose rates in the indoor and outdoor air at evacuation sites in the Fukushima Prefecture were measured using a gamma-ray measuring devices, and individual radiation exposure was calculated by assessing the radiation dose reduction efficiency (defined as the ratio of absorbed dose rate in the indoor air to the absorbed dose rate in the outdoor air) of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings. Between March 2011 and July 2011, dose reduction efficiencies of wood, aluminum, and reinforced concrete buildings were 0.55 ± 0.04, 0.15 ± 0.02, and 0.19 ± 0.04, respectively. The reduction efficiency of wood structures was 1.4 times higher than that reported by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The efficiency of reinforced concrete was similar to previously reported values, whereas that of aluminum structures has not been previously reported. Dose reduction efficiency increased in proportion to the distance from F1-NPS at 8 of the 18 evacuation sites. Time variations did not reflect dose reduction efficiencies at evacuation sites although absorbed dose rates in the outdoor air decreased. These data suggest that dose reduction efficiency depends on structure types, levels of contamination, and evacuee behaviors at evacuation sites. PMID:24999992

  10. Mortality Risk amongst Nursing Home Residents Evacuated after the Fukushima Nuclear Accident: A Retrospective Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Nomura, Shuhei; Gilmour, Stuart; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Yoneoka, Daisuke; Sugimoto, Amina; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Kami, Masahiro; Shibuya, Kenji

    2013-01-01

    Background Safety of evacuation is of paramount importance in disaster planning for elderly people; however, little effort has been made to investigate evacuation-related mortality risks. After the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant accident we conducted a retrospective cohort survival survey of elderly evacuees. Methods A total of 715 residents admitted to five nursing homes in Minamisoma city, Fukushima Prefecture in the five years before 11th March 2011 joined this retrospective cohort study. Demographic and clinical characteristics were drawn from facility medical records. Evacuation histories were tracked until the end of 2011. The evacuation's impact on mortality was assessed using mortality incidence density and hazard ratios in Cox proportional hazards regression. Results Overall relative mortality risk before and after the earthquake was 2.68 (95% CI: 2.04–3.49). There was a substantial variation in mortality risks across the facilities ranging from 0.77 (95% CI: 0.34–1.76) to 2.88 (95% CI: 1.74–4.76). No meaningful influence of evacuation distance on mortality was observed although the first evacuation from the original facility caused significantly higher mortality than subsequent evacuations, with a hazard ratio of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.07–3.49). Conclusion High mortality, due to initial evacuation, suggests that evacuation of the elderly was not the best life-saving strategy for the Fukushima nuclear disaster. Careful consideration of the relative risks of radiation exposure and the risks and benefits of evacuation is essential. Facility-specific disaster response strategies, including in-site relief and care, may have a strong influence on survival. Where evacuation is necessary, careful planning and coordination with other nursing homes, evacuation sites and government disaster agencies is essential to reduce the risk of mortality. PMID:23555921

  11. Bridging the Translation Gap: From Dementia Risk Assessment to Advice on Risk Reduction

    PubMed Central

    Anstey, Kaarin J.; Eramudugolla, Ranmalee; Hosking, Diane E.; Lautenschlager, Nicola T.; Dixon, Roger A.

    2015-01-01

    Dementia risk reduction is a global health and fiscal priority given the current lack of effective treatments and the projected increased number of dementia cases due to population ageing. There are often gaps among academic research, clinical practice, and public policy. We present information on the evidence for dementia risk reduction and evaluate the progress required to formulate this evidence into clinical practice guidelines. This narrative review provides capsule summaries of current evidence for 25 risk and protective factors associated with AD and dementia according to domains including biomarkers, demographic, lifestyle, medical, and environment. We identify the factors for which evidence is strong and thereby especially useful for risk assessment with the goal of personalising recommendations for risk reduction. We also note gaps in knowledge, and discuss how the field may progress towards clinical practice guidelines for dementia risk reduction. PMID:26380232

  12. The efficacy of serostatus disclosure for HIV Transmission risk reduction.

    PubMed

    O'Connell, Ann A; Reed, Sandra J; Serovich, Julianne A

    2015-02-01

    Interventions to assist HIV+ persons in disclosing their serostatus to sexual partners can play an important role in curbing rates of HIV transmission among men who have sex with men (MSM). Based on the methods of Pinkerton and Galletly (AIDS Behav 11:698-705, 2007), we develop a mathematical probability model for evaluating effectiveness of serostatus disclosure in reducing the risk of HIV transmission and extend the model to examine the impact of serosorting. In baseline data from 164 HIV+ MSM participating in a randomized controlled trial of a disclosure intervention, disclosure is associated with a 45.0 % reduction in the risk of HIV transmission. Accounting for serosorting, a 61.2 % reduction in risk due to disclosure was observed in serodisconcordant couples. The reduction in risk for seroconcordant couples was 38.4 %. Evidence provided supports the value of serostatus disclosure as a risk reduction strategy in HIV+ MSM. Interventions to increase serostatus disclosure and that address serosorting behaviors are needed. PMID:25164375

  13. The Global Earthquake Model and Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smolka, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Advanced, reliable and transparent tools and data to assess earthquake risk are inaccessible to most, especially in less developed regions of the world while few, if any, globally accepted standards currently allow a meaningful comparison of risk between places. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) is a collaborative effort that aims to provide models, datasets and state-of-the-art tools for transparent assessment of earthquake hazard and risk. As part of this goal, GEM and its global network of collaborators have developed the OpenQuake engine (an open-source software for hazard and risk calculations), the OpenQuake platform (a web-based portal making GEM's resources and datasets freely available to all potential users), and a suite of tools to support modelers and other experts in the development of hazard, exposure and vulnerability models. These resources are being used extensively across the world in hazard and risk assessment, from individual practitioners to local and national institutions, and in regional projects to inform disaster risk reduction. Practical examples for how GEM is bridging the gap between science and disaster risk reduction are: - Several countries including Switzerland, Turkey, Italy, Ecuador, Papua-New Guinea and Taiwan (with more to follow) are computing national seismic hazard using the OpenQuake-engine. In some cases these results are used for the definition of actions in building codes. - Technical support, tools and data for the development of hazard, exposure, vulnerability and risk models for regional projects in South America and Sub-Saharan Africa. - Going beyond physical risk, GEM's scorecard approach evaluates local resilience by bringing together neighborhood/community leaders and the risk reduction community as a basis for designing risk reduction programs at various levels of geography. Actual case studies are Lalitpur in the Kathmandu Valley in Nepal and Quito/Ecuador. In agreement with GEM's collaborative approach, all

  14. A methodology for the quantitative risk assessment of major accidents triggered by seismic events.

    PubMed

    Antonioni, Giacomo; Spadoni, Gigliola; Cozzani, Valerio

    2007-08-17

    A procedure for the quantitative risk assessment of accidents triggered by seismic events in industrial facilities was developed. The starting point of the procedure was the use of available historical data to assess the expected frequencies and the severity of seismic events. Available equipment-dependant failure probability models (vulnerability or fragility curves) were used to assess the damage probability of equipment items due to a seismic event. An analytic procedure was subsequently developed to identify, evaluate the credibility and finally assess the expected consequences of all the possible scenarios that may follow the seismic events. The procedure was implemented in a GIS-based software tool in order to manage the high number of event sequences that are likely to be generated in large industrial facilities. The developed methodology requires a limited amount of additional data with respect to those used in a conventional QRA, and yields with a limited effort a preliminary quantitative assessment of the contribution of the scenarios triggered by earthquakes to the individual and societal risk indexes. The application of the methodology to several case-studies evidenced that the scenarios initiated by seismic events may have a relevant influence on industrial risk, both raising the overall expected frequency of single scenarios and causing specific severe scenarios simultaneously involving several plant units.

  15. Analysis of avalanche risk factors in backcountry terrain based on usage frequency and accident data in Switzerland

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Techel, F.; Zweifel, B.; Winkler, K.

    2015-09-01

    Recreational activities in snow-covered mountainous terrain in the backcountry account for the vast majority of avalanche accidents. Studies analyzing avalanche risk mostly rely on accident statistics without considering exposure (or the elements at risk), i.e., how many, when and where people are recreating, as data on recreational activity in the winter mountains are scarce. To fill this gap, we explored volunteered geographic information on two social media mountaineering websites - bergportal.ch and camptocamp.org. Based on these data, we present a spatiotemporal pattern of winter backcountry touring activity in the Swiss Alps and compare this with accident statistics. Geographically, activity was concentrated in Alpine regions relatively close to the main Swiss population centers in the west and north. In contrast, accidents occurred equally often in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. Weekends, weather and avalanche conditions influenced the number of recreationists, while the odds to be involved in a severe avalanche accident did not depend on weekends or weather conditions. However, the likelihood of being involved in an accident increased with increasing avalanche danger level, but also with a more unfavorable snowpack containing persistent weak layers (also referred to as an old snow problem). In fact, the most critical situation for backcountry recreationists and professionals occurred on days and in regions when both the avalanche danger was critical and when the snowpack contained persistent weak layers. The frequently occurring geographical pattern of a more unfavorable snowpack structure also explains the relatively high proportion of accidents in the less-frequented inner-alpine regions. These results have practical implications: avalanche forecasters should clearly communicate the avalanche danger and the avalanche problem to the backcountry user, particularly if persistent weak layers are of concern. Professionals and recreationists, on the

  16. Developing and Evaluating a Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Project.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brownson, Ross C.; Mayer, Jeffrey P.; Dusseault, Patricia; Dabney, Sue; Wright, Kathleen; Jackson-Thompson, Jeannette; Malone, Bernard; Goodman, Robert

    1997-01-01

    Describes the development and baseline evaluation data from the Ozark Heart Health Project, a community-based cardiovascular disease risk reduction program in rural Missouri that targeted smoking, physical inactivity, and poor diet. Several Ozark counties participated in either intervention or control groups, and researchers conducted surveillance…

  17. Health risk assessment of major accidents with toxic chemicals for disaster preparedness and response

    SciTech Connect

    Van der Torn, P.

    1991-01-01

    Health risks of major accidents with toxic chemicals need to be defined by: (i) nature, (ii) number and (iii) severity. (ad i) Health effects are conveniently categorized by nature into local (L)/systemic (S) and immediate (1)/delayed (2) (health effects). (ad ii) Derivation of population responses generally is unfeasible, instead exposure bands can be specified by effect-level. (ad iii) The continuum of health effects should be described in a global disability scale. The 4 D'-scale seems most appropriate: death (D{sub 1}), disability (D{sub 2}), discomfort (D{sub 3}), detectability (D{sub 4}). For use in disaster response health risk specifications should furthermore be: (1) transparent, (2) in line with the overall situational analysis and (3) congruent with mitigation. (-ad 1) Transparency can be improved by selecting one main sign/symptom by effect level for field instructions. (-ad 2) Situational analysis initially involves the source-area (what effect levels are found near the source ) and the outer limits of the effect area (feedback from telephone complaints mostly D{sub 4}). Otherwise, knowledge is needed of the ratio of exposures that lead to consecutive effect levels to assess the overall health impact by interpolation. Finally, the need to recognize high risk situations is emphasized: e.g. data bases with distributions of dispersion constraints (urban areas), penetration potentials into the housing-stock, concentrations of groups at high-risk (over time). (-ad 3) Mitigation is divided into: (a) protection of the public in a threatened area and (b) medical assistance.

  18. Meeting report: suggestions for studies on future health risks following the Fukushima accident.

    PubMed

    Inamasu, Tomoko; Schonfeld, Sara J; Abe, Masafumi; Bidstrup, Pernille E; Deltour, Isabelle; Ishida, Takashi; Ishikawa, Tetsuo; Kesminiene, Ausrele; Ohira, Tetsuya; Ohto, Hitoshi; Suzuki, Shinichi; Thierry-Chef, Isabelle; Yabe, Hirooki; Yasumura, Seiji; Schüz, Joachim; Yamashita, Shunichi

    2015-01-01

    In October 2013, the Radiation Medical Science Center of the Fukushima Medical University and the Section of Environment and Radiation of the International Agency for Research on Cancer held a joint workshop in Fukushima, Japan to discuss opportunities and challenges for long-term studies of the health effects following the March 2011 Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident. This report describes four key areas of discussion -- thyroid screening, dosimetry, mental health, and non-radiation risk factors -- and summarizes recommendations resulting from the workshop. Four recommendations given at the workshop were to: 1) build-up a population-based cancer registry for long-term monitoring of the cancer burden in the prefecture; 2) enable future linkage of data from the various independent activities, particularly those related to dose reconstruction and health status ascertainment; 3) establish long-term observational studies with repeated measurements of lifestyle and behavioural factors to disentangle radiation and non-radiation factors; and 4) implement primary prevention strategies targeted for populations affected by natural disasters, including measures to better understand and address health risk concerns in the affected population. The workshop concluded that coordinated data collection between researchers from different institutes and disciplines can both reduce the burden on the population and facilitate efforts to examine the inter-relationships between the many factors at play. PMID:25889395

  19. Study on the Application of the Kent Index Method on the Risk Assessment of Disastrous Accidents in Subway Engineering

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Hao; Wang, Mingyang; Yang, Baohuai; Rong, Xiaoli

    2013-01-01

    With the development of subway engineering, according to uncertain factors and serious accidents involved in the construction of subways, implementing risk assessment is necessary and may bring a number of benefits for construction safety. The Kent index method extensively used in pipeline construction is improved to make risk assessment much more practical for the risk assessment of disastrous accidents in subway engineering. In the improved method, the indexes are divided into four categories, namely, basic, design, construction, and consequence indexes. In this study, a risk assessment model containing four kinds of indexes is provided. Three kinds of risk occurrence modes are listed. The probability index model which considers the relativity of the indexes is established according to the risk occurrence modes. The model provides the risk assessment process through the fault tree method and has been applied in the risk assessment of Nanjing subway's river-crossing tunnel construction. Based on the assessment results, the builders were informed of what risks should be noticed and what they should do to avoid the risks. The need for further research is discussed. Overall, this method may provide a tool for the builders, and improve the safety of the construction. PMID:23710136

  20. Risk and potential risk reduction in diabetes type 2 patients in Germany.

    PubMed

    Häussler, Bertram; Berger, Ursula; Mast, Oliver; Thefeld, Wolfgang

    2005-06-01

    Avoiding serious complications such as stroke, myocardial infarction, and amputations in diabetes patients is the main interest of long-term treatment. Given the considerable prevalence of diabetes type 2 in industrialized countries this is a major public health concern as well as a burden to health care systems. The present study estimated the current risk of major complications occurring in the German diabetes type 2 population and explored the potential for further risk reduction. Risk reduction can be achieved when physiological and behavioral parameters (HbAlc, blood pressure, cholesterol level, body mass index, smoking) are set to target values recommended in guidelines. To estimate individual risk and potential risk reduction the multifactor disease model Mellibase was employed. Data were obtained from the German Health Survey of 1998, which includes a sample of 7,124 individuals representative of the German population. The survey shows a prevalence rate of 6.3% for diabetes type 2 in persons older than 35 years. The analyses reveal that the overall potential for risk reduction is moderate (e.g., the average reduction potential of the 10-year risk of stroke is 5.7%). A majority of parameter ranges found in the patient population are either already close to the recommended values (HbA1c), are not alarmingly higher than in the general population (blood pressure) or have little impact on risk reduction. In addition nonmodifiable risk factors such as duration of the illness and advanced age constrain possible improvements. However, there is a wide variation in the actual risk between individuals (e.g., the 10-year risk of stroke varies between 2.2% and 79.8%), and thus a wide variation in potential risk reduction (the risk reduction potential for stroke varies between 0% and 53.4%). Intensified treatment should therefore (a) focus on relevant subgroups of patients taking their risk reduction potential into account and (b) aim at improvement in the overall

  1. Systematic Risk Reduction: Chances and Risks of Geological Storage of CO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schilling, F. R.; Wuerdemann, H.

    2010-12-01

    A profound risk assessment should be the basis of any underground activity such as the geological storage of CO2. The risks and benefits should be weighted, whereas the risks need to be systematically reduced. Even after some decades of geological storage of CO2 (as part of a carbon capture and storage CCS), only a few projects are based on an independent risk assessment. In some cases, a risk assessment was performed after the start of storage operation. Chances: - Are there alternatives to CCS with lower risk? - Is a significant CO2 reduction possible without CCS? - If we accept that CO2 emissions are responsible for climate change having a severe economical impact, we need to substantially reduce CO2 emissions. As long as economic growth is directly related to CO2 emissions, we need to decouple the two. - CCS is one of the few options - may be a necessity, if the energy market is not only dependent on demand. Risks: Beside the risk not to develop and implement CCS, the following risks need to be addressed, ideally in a multi independent risk assessment. - Personal Interests - Acceptance - Political interests - Company interests - HSE (Health Safety Environment) - Risk for Climate and ETS - Operational Risks If a multi independent risk assessment is performed and the risks are addressed in a proper way, a significant and systematic risk reduction can be achieved. Some examples will be given, based on real case studies, such as CO2SINK at Ketzin.

  2. Cancer risk estimation in Belarussian children due to thyroid irradiation as a consequence of the Chernobyl nuclear accident

    SciTech Connect

    Buglova, E.; Kenigsberg, J.E.; Sergeeva, N.V.

    1996-07-01

    The thyroid doses received by the juvenile population of Belarus following the Chernobyl accident ranged up to about 10 Gy. The thyroid cancer risk estimate recommended in NCRP Report No. 80 was used to predict the number of thyroid cancer cases among children during 1990-1992 in selected Belarussian regions and cities. The results obtained using this risk estimate show an excess of thyroid cancer cases being registered vs. the predicted cases. Thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys under investigation is higher than among girls in the postaccident period. The excess of the observed over the expected incidence in the general juvenile population is caused by the high thyroid cancer incidence rate among boys. These results, which can be considered part of the first stage of a thorough thyroid cancer risk estimation after the Chernobyl accident, demonstrate the critical need to complete these studies in depth. 6 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs.

  3. Long-Term International Space Station (ISS) Risk Reduction Activities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Forroci, Michael P.; Gafka, George K.; Lutomski, Michael G.; Maher, Jacilyn S.

    2011-01-01

    As the assembly of the ISS nears completion, it is worthwhile to step back and review some of the actions pursued by the Program in recent years to reduce risk and enhance the safety and health of ISS crewmembers, visitors, and space flight participants. While the initial ISS requirements and design were intended to provide the best practicable levels of safety, it is always possible to further reduce risk given the determination, commitment, and resources to do so. The following is a summary of some of the steps taken by the ISS Program Manager, by our International Partners, by hardware and software designers, by operational specialists, and by safety personnel to continuously enhance the safety of the ISS, and to reduce risk to all crewmembers. While years of work went into the development of ISS requirements, there are many things associated with risk reduction in a Program like the ISS that can only be learned through actual operational experience. These risk reduction activities can be divided into roughly three categories: Areas that were initially noncompliant which have subsequently been brought into compliance or near compliance (i.e., Micrometeoroid and Orbital Debris [MMOD] protection, acoustics) Areas where initial design requirements were eventually considered inadequate and were subsequently augmented (i.e., Toxicity hazard level-4 materials, emergency procedures, emergency equipment, control of drag-throughs) Areas where risks were initially underestimated, and have subsequently been addressed through additional mitigation (i.e., Extravehicular Activity [EVA] sharp edges, plasma shock hazards). Due to the hard work and cooperation of many parties working together across the span of more than a decade, the ISS is now a safer and healthier environment for our crew, in many cases exceeding the risk reduction targets inherent in the intent of the original design. It will provide a safe and stable platform for utilization and discovery for years to come.

  4. Verification the data on critical facilities inventory and vulnerability for seismic risk assessment taking into account possible accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frolova, Nina; Larionov, Valery; Bonnin, Jean; Ugarov, Aleksander

    2015-04-01

    The paper contains the results of the recent study that has been done by Seismological Center of IGE, Russian Academy of Sciences and Extreme Situations Research Center within the Russian Academy of Sciences Project "Theoretical and Methodological basis for seismic risk assessment taking into account technological accidents at local level; constructing the seismic risk maps for the Big Sochi City territory including the venue of Olympic Games facilities." The procedure of critical facilities inventory and vulnerability verification which makes use of space images and web technologies in social networks is presented. The numerical values of the criteria of accidents at fire and chemical hazardous facilities triggered by strong earthquakes are obtained. The seismic risk maps for Big Sochi City territory including the Olympic Games venue constructed taking into account new data on critical facilities obtained with application panorama photos of these facilities, space images of high resolution and web technologies. The obtained values of individual seismic risk taking into account secondary technological accidents exceed the values seismic risk without taking secondary hazard, return period T= 500 years, at 0.5-1.0 10-51/year.

  5. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  6. Radiation risk models for all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring individual assessments after a nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Linda; Zhang, Wei

    2016-03-01

    In the assessment of health risks after nuclear accidents, some health consequences require special attention. For example, in their 2013 report on health risk assessment after the Fukushima nuclear accident, the World Health Organisation (WHO) panel of experts considered risks of breast cancer, thyroid cancer and leukaemia. For these specific cancer types, use was made of already published excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models for radiation-related cancer incidence fitted to the epidemiological data from the Japanese A-bomb Life Span Study (LSS). However, it was also considered important to assess all other types of solid cancer together and the WHO, in their above-mentioned report, stated "No model to calculate the risk for all other solid cancer excluding breast and thyroid cancer risks is available from the LSS data". Applying the LSS models for all solid cancers along with the models for the specific sites means that some cancers have an overlap in the risk evaluations. Thus, calculating the total solid cancer risk plus the breast cancer risk plus the thyroid cancer risk can overestimate the total risk by several per cent. Therefore, the purpose of this paper was to publish the required models for all other solid cancers, i.e. all solid cancers other than those types of cancer requiring special attention after a nuclear accident. The new models presented here have been fitted to the same LSS data set from which the risks provided by the WHO were derived. Although it is known already that the EAR and ERR effect modifications by sex are statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer", it is shown here that sex modification is not statistically significant for the outcome "all solid cancer other than thyroid and breast cancer". It is also shown here that the sex-averaged solid cancer risks with and without the sex modification are very similar once breast and thyroid cancers are factored out. Some other notable model

  7. Issues of Fish Consumption for Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction

    PubMed Central

    Raatz, Susan K.; Silverstein, Jeffrey T.; Jahns, Lisa; Picklo, Matthew J.

    2013-01-01

    Increasing fish consumption is recommended for intake of omega-3 (n-3) fatty acids and to confer benefits for the risk reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most Americans are not achieving intake levels that comply with current recommendations. It is the goal of this review to provide an overview of the issues affecting this shortfall of intake. Herein we describe the relationship between fish intake and CVD risk reduction as well as the other nutritional contributions of fish to the diet. Currently recommended intake levels are described and estimates of fish consumption at a food disappearance and individual level are reported. Risk and benefit factors influencing the choice to consume fish are outlined. The multiple factors influencing fish availability from global capture and aquaculture are described as are other pertinent issues of fish nutrition, production, sustainability, and consumption patterns. This review highlights some of the work that needs to be carried out to meet the demand for fish and to positively affect intake levels to meet fish intake recommendations for CVD risk reduction. PMID:23538940

  8. Issues of fish consumption for cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Raatz, Susan K; Silverstein, Jeffrey T; Jahns, Lisa; Picklo, Matthew J

    2013-04-01

    Increasing fish consumption is recommended for intake of omega-3 (n-3) fatty acids and to confer benefits for the risk reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most Americans are not achieving intake levels that comply with current recommendations. It is the goal of this review to provide an overview of the issues affecting this shortfall of intake. Herein we describe the relationship between fish intake and CVD risk reduction as well as the other nutritional contributions of fish to the diet. Currently recommended intake levels are described and estimates of fish consumption at a food disappearance and individual level are reported. Risk and benefit factors influencing the choice to consume fish are outlined. The multiple factors influencing fish availability from global capture and aquaculture are described as are other pertinent issues of fish nutrition, production, sustainability, and consumption patterns. This review highlights some of the work that needs to be carried out to meet the demand for fish and to positively affect intake levels to meet fish intake recommendations for CVD risk reduction. PMID:23538940

  9. Issues of fish consumption for cardiovascular disease risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Raatz, Susan K; Silverstein, Jeffrey T; Jahns, Lisa; Picklo, Matthew J

    2013-03-28

    Increasing fish consumption is recommended for intake of omega-3 (n-3) fatty acids and to confer benefits for the risk reduction of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Most Americans are not achieving intake levels that comply with current recommendations. It is the goal of this review to provide an overview of the issues affecting this shortfall of intake. Herein we describe the relationship between fish intake and CVD risk reduction as well as the other nutritional contributions of fish to the diet. Currently recommended intake levels are described and estimates of fish consumption at a food disappearance and individual level are reported. Risk and benefit factors influencing the choice to consume fish are outlined. The multiple factors influencing fish availability from global capture and aquaculture are described as are other pertinent issues of fish nutrition, production, sustainability, and consumption patterns. This review highlights some of the work that needs to be carried out to meet the demand for fish and to positively affect intake levels to meet fish intake recommendations for CVD risk reduction.

  10. Cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction

    PubMed Central

    Malik, I; Bhatia, V; Kooner, J

    2001-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—To assess the cost effectiveness of ramipril treatment in patients at low, medium, and high risk of cardiovascular death.
DESIGN—Population based cost effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the health care provider in the UK. Effectiveness was modelled using data from the HOPE (heart outcome prevention evaluation) trial. The life table method was used to predict mortality in a medium risk cohort, as in the HOPE trial (2.44% annual mortality), and in low and high risk groups (1% and 4.5% annual mortality, respectively).
SETTING—UK population using 1998 government actuary department data.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE—Cost per life year gained at five years and lifetime treatment with ramipril.
RESULTS—Cost effectiveness was £36 600, £13 600, and £4000 per life year gained at five years and £5300, £1900, and £100 per life year gained at 20 years (lifetime treatment) in low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively. Cost effectiveness at 20 years remained well below that of haemodialysis (£25 000 per life year gained) over a range of potential drug costs and savings. Treatment of the HOPE population would cost the UK National Health Service (NHS) an additional £360 million but would prevent 12 000 deaths per annum.
CONCLUSIONS—Ramipril is cost effective treatment for cardiovascular risk reduction in patients at medium, high, and low pretreatment risk, with a cost effectiveness comparable with the use of statins. Implementation of ramipril treatment in a medium risk population would result in a major reduction in cardiovascular deaths but would increase annual NHS spending by £360 million.


Keywords: angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitor; cardiovascular risk; cost effectiveness; ramipril PMID:11303006

  11. Microenterprise development interventions for sexual risk reduction: a systematic review.

    PubMed

    Cui, Rosa R; Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E; Tucker, Joseph D

    2013-11-01

    Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies. PMID:23963497

  12. Microenterprise Development Interventions for Sexual Risk Reduction: A Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Ramon; Thirumurthy, Harsha; Muessig, Kathryn E.; Tucker, Joseph D.

    2013-01-01

    Comprehensive interventions that address both individual and structural determinants associated with HIV/STI risk are gaining increasing attention over the past decade. Microenterprise development offers an appealing model for HIV prevention by addressing poverty and gender equality. This study systematically reviewed the effects of microenterprise development interventions on HIV/STI incidence and sexual risk behaviors. Microenterprise development was defined as developing small business capacity among individuals to alleviate poverty. Seven eligible research studies representing five interventions were identified and included in this review. All of the studies targeted women, and three focused on sex workers. None measured biomarker outcomes. All three sex worker studies showed significant reduction in sexual risk behaviors when compared to the control group. Non-sex worker studies showed limited changes in sexual risk behavior. This review indicates the potential utility of microenterprise development in HIV risk reduction programs. More research is needed to determine how microenterprise development can be effectively incorporated in comprehensive HIV control strategies. PMID:23963497

  13. Valuation of morbidity and mortality risk reductions. Does context matter?

    PubMed

    Nielsen, Jytte Seested; Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjær, Trine

    2012-09-01

    The main research purpose of the present study was to test for any differences in the valuation of morbidity and mortality risk reductions across two contexts; traffic and health. A contingent valuation study on preferences for morbidity and mortality risk was carried out in Denmark in 2007. Respondents were randomised into two different arms: one arm in which the valuation took place in the context of health and another arm in which the context was traffic. In both contexts, the inferior health state was described by way of the standardized EQ-5D descriptive system. We obtained a total sample of 520 respondents from an online database. In the present study we found clear evidence of a context effect on expressed valuations of identical risk reductions. This was true irrespective of whether the adverse outcome in question was death or inferior health. This result suggests that interventions targeting risks of death or risks of ill health should not necessarily be valued equally across sectors. From a welfare economic perspective, the use of the same estimates across contexts - and especially across sectors - could be misleading and in worst case lead to inefficient resource allocations.

  14. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Mundorf, William R.

    2003-03-06

    A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, was developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs.

  15. The importance of risk factor reduction in erectile dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Jackson, Graham

    2007-11-01

    Erectile dysfunction (ED) is associated with modifiable risk factors. Obesity, physical inactivity, and the metabolic syndrome increase the incidence of ED and markers of low-grade inflammation, which in turn are associated with endothelial dysfunction. Intensive intervention with lifestyle advice focusing on a healthy diet, weight loss, and increased physical activity benefits men with ED, reducing the markers of inflammation and improving endothelial function. Though phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors are highly effective in treating ED, lifestyle advice and aggressive risk reduction remain fundamental to the overall vascular good health of the individual.

  16. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  17. A framework for estimating radiation-related cancer risks in Japan from the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Walsh, L; Zhang, W; Shore, R E; Auvinen, A; Laurier, D; Wakeford, R; Jacob, P; Gent, N; Anspaugh, L R; Schüz, J; Kesminiene, A; van Deventer, E; Tritscher, A; del Rosarion Pérez, M

    2014-11-01

    We present here a methodology for health risk assessment adopted by the World Health Organization that provides a framework for estimating risks from the Fukushima nuclear accident after the March 11, 2011 Japanese major earthquake and tsunami. Substantial attention has been given to the possible health risks associated with human exposure to radiation from damaged reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power station. Cumulative doses were estimated and applied for each post-accident year of life, based on a reference level of exposure during the first year after the earthquake. A lifetime cumulative dose of twice the first year dose was estimated for the primary radionuclide contaminants ((134)Cs and (137)Cs) and are based on Chernobyl data, relative abundances of cesium isotopes, and cleanup efforts. Risks for particularly radiosensitive cancer sites (leukemia, thyroid and breast cancer), as well as the combined risk for all solid cancers were considered. The male and female cumulative risks of cancer incidence attributed to radiation doses from the accident, for those exposed at various ages, were estimated in terms of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR). Calculations of LAR were based on recent Japanese population statistics for cancer incidence and current radiation risk models from the Life Span Study of Japanese A-bomb survivors. Cancer risks over an initial period of 15 years after first exposure were also considered. LAR results were also given as a percentage of the lifetime baseline risk (i.e., the cancer risk in the absence of radiation exposure from the accident). The LAR results were based on either a reference first year dose (10 mGy) or a reference lifetime dose (20 mGy) so that risk assessment may be applied for relocated and non-relocated members of the public, as well as for adult male emergency workers. The results show that the major contribution to LAR from the reference lifetime dose comes from the first year dose. For a dose of 10 mGy in

  18. [Tobacco cadmium health risk assessment and reduction techniques: A review].

    PubMed

    Cao, Chen-liang; Ma, Yi-bing; Li, Ju-mei; Wei, Dong-pu; Shi, Yi

    2015-04-01

    Tobacco is one of the cadmium accumulation and tolerance plants. Decreasing cadmium content of tobacco contributes to environmental safety and human health. Three aspects on tobacco cadmium research were reviewed in this paper, i.e. uptake and distribution of cadmium in tobacco, and health risk assessment of cadmium in tobacco and reduction measures. The current situations and existing challenges in the research field were discussed. The cadmium tolerance mechanisms of tobacco were reviewed, the factors on cadmium uptake were analyzed, and the general distribution of cadmium in tobacco was summarized. From the point of health risk assessment, the lack of cadmium limits in tobacco was identified, the recommended formula to calculate cadmium limits of tobacco based on atmosphere cadmium limits and digestion cadmium limits was provided and the cadmium limits of tobacco were estimated using each formula, and suggestions on cadmium limits in tobacco were presented. At last, we put forward several effective reduction measures to lower cadmium level in tobacco leaves.

  19. The value of mortality risk reductions. Pure altruism - a confounder?

    PubMed

    Gyrd-Hansen, Dorte; Kjær, Trine; Seested Nielsen, Jytte

    2016-09-01

    This paper examines public valuations of mortality risk reductions. We set up a theoretical framework that allows for altruistic preferences, and subsequently test theoretical predictions through the design of a discrete choice experiment. By varying the tax scenario (uniform versus individual tax), the experimental design allows us to verify whether pure altruistic preferences are present and the underlying causes. We find evidence of negative pure altruism. Under a coercive uniform tax system respondents lower their willingness to pay possibly to ensure that they are not forcing others to pay at a level that corresponds to their own - higher - valuations. This hypothesis is supported by the observation that respondents perceive other individuals' valuations to be lower than their own. Our results suggest that public valuations of mortality risk reductions may underestimate the true societal value because respondents are considering other individuals' welfare, and wrongfully perceive other people's valuations to be low. PMID:27494571

  20. Derivation of Accident-Specific Material-at-Risk Equivalency Factors

    SciTech Connect

    Jason P. Andrus; Dr. Chad L. Pope

    2012-05-01

    A novel method for calculating material at risk (MAR) dose equivalency developed at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) now allows for increased utilization of dose equivalency for facility MAR control. This method involves near-real time accounting for the use of accident and material specific release and transport. It utilizes all information from the committed effective dose equation and the five factor source term equation to derive dose equivalency factors which can be used to establish an overall facility or process MAR limit. The equivalency factors allow different nuclide spectrums to be compared for their respective dose consequences by relating them to a specific quantity of an identified reference nuclide. The ability to compare spectrums to a reference limit ensures that MAR limits are in fact bounding instead of attempting to establish a representative or bounding spectrum which may lead to unintended or unanalyzed configurations. This methodology is then coupled with a near real time material tracking system which allows for accurate and timely material composition information and corresponding MAR equivalency values. The development of this approach was driven by the complex nature of processing operations in some INL facilities. This type of approach is ideally suited for facilities and processes where the composition of the MAR and possible release mechanisms change frequently but in well defined fashions and in a batch-type nature.

  1. Report Lays Out Initial Hazard Risk Reduction Priorities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Showstack, Randy

    A new Bush administration report on disaster vulnerability provides an initial set of priorities for natural and technological hazard risk reduction efforts, an overview of hazards facing the U.S., and a review of current mitigation efforts. Among the priorities identified by the 27 August report is that the U.S. should leverage scientific knowledge of natural and technological hazards to help address terrorism events and homeland security goals.

  2. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors. PMID:22785089

  3. Risk of road accident associated with the use of drugs: a systematic review and meta-analysis of evidence from epidemiological studies.

    PubMed

    Elvik, Rune

    2013-11-01

    This paper is a corrigendum to a previously published paper where errors were detected. The errors have been corrected in this paper. The paper is otherwise identical to the previously published paper. A systematic review and meta-analysis of studies that have assessed the risk of accident associated with the use of drugs when driving is presented. The meta-analysis included 66 studies containing a total of 264 estimates of the effects on accident risk of using illicit or prescribed drugs when driving. Summary estimates of the odds ratio of accident involvement are presented for amphetamines, analgesics, anti-asthmatics, anti-depressives, anti-histamines, benzodiazepines, cannabis, cocaine, opiates, penicillin and zopiclone (a sleeping pill). For most of the drugs, small or moderate increases in accident risk associated with the use of the drugs were found. Information about whether the drugs were actually used while driving and about the doses used was often imprecise. Most studies that have evaluated the presence of a dose-response relationship between the dose of drugs taken and the effects on accident risk confirm the existence of a dose-response relationship. Use of drugs while driving tends to have a larger effect on the risk of fatal and serious injury accidents than on the risk of less serious accidents (usually property-damage-only accidents). The quality of the studies that have assessed risk varied greatly. There was a tendency for the estimated effects of drug use on accident risk to be smaller in well-controlled studies than in poorly controlled studies. Evidence of publication bias was found for some drugs. The associations found cannot be interpreted as causal relationships, principally because most studies do not control very well for potentially confounding factors.

  4. Risk of thyroid follicular adenoma among children and adolescents in Belarus exposed to iodine-131 after the Chornobyl accident.

    PubMed

    Zablotska, Lydia B; Nadyrov, Eldar A; Polyanskaya, Olga N; McConnell, Robert J; O'Kane, Patrick; Lubin, Jay; Hatch, Maureen; Little, Mark P; Brenner, Alina V; Veyalkin, Ilya V; Yauseyenka, Vasilina V; Bouville, Andre; Drozdovitch, Vladimir V; Minenko, Viktor F; Demidchik, Yuri E; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Rozhko, Alexander V

    2015-11-01

    Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 ((131)I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual (131)I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the (131)I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure.

  5. Risk of Thyroid Follicular Adenoma Among Children and Adolescents in Belarus Exposed to Iodine-131 After the Chornobyl Accident

    PubMed Central

    Zablotska, Lydia B.; Nadyrov, Eldar A.; Polyanskaya, Olga N.; McConnell, Robert J.; O'Kane, Patrick; Lubin, Jay; Hatch, Maureen; Little, Mark P.; Brenner, Alina V.; Veyalkin, Ilya V.; Yauseyenka, Vasilina V.; Bouville, Andre; Drozdovitch, Vladimir V.; Minenko, Viktor F.; Demidchik, Yuri E.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Rozhko, Alexander V.

    2015-01-01

    Several studies reported an increased risk of thyroid cancer in children and adolescents exposed to radioactive iodines, chiefly iodine-131 (131I), after the 1986 Chornobyl (Ukrainian spelling) nuclear power plant accident. The risk of benign thyroid tumors following such radiation exposure is much less well known. We have previously reported a novel finding of significantly increased risk of thyroid follicular adenoma in a screening study of children and adolescents exposed to the Chornobyl fallout in Ukraine. To verify this finding, we analyzed baseline screening data from a cohort of 11,613 individuals aged ≤18 years at the time of the accident in Belarus (mean age at screening = 21 years). All participants had individual 131I doses estimated from thyroid radioactivity measurements and were screened according to a standardized protocol. We found a significant linear dose response for 38 pathologically confirmed follicular adenoma cases. The excess odds ratio per gray of 2.22 (95% confidence interval: 0.41, 13.1) was similar in males and females but decreased significantly with increasing age at exposure (P < 0.01), with the highest radiation risks estimated for those exposed at <2 years of age. Follicular adenoma radiation risks were not significantly modified by most indicators of past and current iodine deficiency. The present study confirms the 131I-associated increases in risk of follicular adenoma in the Ukrainian population and adds new evidence on the risk increasing with decreasing age at exposure. PMID:26443421

  6. Constructing a holistic approach to disaster risk reduction: the significance of focusing on vulnerability reduction.

    PubMed

    Palliyaguru, Roshani; Amaratunga, Dilanthi; Baldry, David

    2014-01-01

    As a result of the increase in natural disaster losses, policy-makers, practitioners, and members of the research community around the world are seeking effective and efficient means of overcoming or minimising them. Although various theoretical constructs are beneficial to understanding the disaster phenomenon and the means of minimising losses, the disaster risk management process becomes less effective if theory and practice are set apart from one another. Consequently, this paper seeks to establish a relationship between two theoretical constructs, 'disaster risk reduction (DRR)' and 'vulnerability reduction', and to develop a holistic approach to DRR with particular reference to improving its applicability in practical settings. It is based on a literature review and on an overall understanding gained through two case studies of post-disaster infrastructure reconstruction projects in Sri Lanka and three expert interviews in Sri Lanka and the United Kingdom.

  7. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Bernow, S.; Duckworth, M.; Spinney P.

    1996-12-31

    This paper presents preliminary results of a study to evaluate the risk-reduction benefits of wind power for a case study utility system using decision analysis techniques. The costs and risks of two alternative decisions-whether to build a 400 MW gas-fired combined cycle plant or a 1600 MW wind plant in 2003-were compared through computer simulations as fuel prices, environmental regulatory costs, wind and conventional power plant availability, and load growth were allowed to vary. Three different market scenarios were examined: traditional regulation, a short-term power pool, and fixed-price contracts of varying duration. The study concludes that, from the perspective of ratepayers, wind energy provides a net levelized risk-reduction benefit of $3.4 to $7.8/MWh under traditional regulation, and less in the other scenarios. From the perspective of the utility plant owners, wind provides a significant risk benefit in the unregulated market scenarios but none in a regulated market. The methodology and findings should help inform utility resource planning and industry restructuring efforts. 2 figs., 3 tabs.

  8. Psychoeducational group approach: HIV risk reduction in drug users.

    PubMed

    Sorensen, J L; London, J; Heitzmann, C; Gibson, D R; Morales, E S; Dumontet, R; Acree, M

    1994-04-01

    In two trials of a small-group AIDS prevention approach, 50 methadone maintenance patients and 98 heroin abusers in outpatient detoxification were randomly assigned to experimental or comparison conditions. Experimental condition subjects received a 6-hour, small-group intervention that aimed to improve their knowledge and attitudes about AIDS, skills in syringe sterilization and condom use, and changing high-risk needle use and sexual behaviors. Comparison subjects received a set of written materials about AIDS. At posttest and 3-month follow-ups, experimental condition subjects in both maintenance and detoxification demonstrated greater knowledge of AIDS and risk reduction practices and improved skill in demonstrating condom use. Although outpatient detoxification subjects displayed considerably more risk behaviors at study outset, the intervention's effect appeared to be more robust in methadone maintenance patients. The relative lack of impact on subjects' behaviors points out that more potent, sustained interventions need to be developed to slow the spread of HIV among injecting drug users.

  9. Fukushima nuclear accident: preliminary assessment of the risks to non-human biota.

    PubMed

    Aliyu, Abubakar Sadiq; Ramli, Ahmad Termizi; Garba, Nuraddeen Nasiru; Saleh, Muneer Aziz; Gabdo, Hamman Tukur; Liman, Muhammad Sanusi

    2015-02-01

    This study assesses the 'radio-ecological' impacts of Fukushima nuclear accident on non-human biota using the ERICA Tool, which adopts an internationally verified methodology. The paper estimates the impacts of the accident on terrestrial and marine biota based on the environmental data reported in literature for Japan, China, South Korea and the USA. Discernible impacts have been detected in the marine biota around Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant. This study confirms that the Fukushima accident had caused heavier damage to marine bionts compared with terrestrial flora and fauna, in Japan. PMID:24827576

  10. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation.

    PubMed

    Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund.

  11. Reduction of Systemic Risk by Means of Pigouvian Taxation

    PubMed Central

    Zlatić, Vinko; Gabbi, Giampaolo; Abraham, Hrvoje

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the possibility of reduction of systemic risk in financial markets through Pigouvian taxation of financial institutions, which is used to support the rescue fund. We introduce the concept of the cascade risk with a clear operational definition as a subclass and a network related measure of the systemic risk. Using financial networks constructed from real Italian money market data and using realistic parameters, we show that the cascade risk can be substantially reduced by a small rate of taxation and by means of a simple strategy of the money transfer from the rescue fund to interbanking market subjects. Furthermore, we show that while negative effects on the return on investment (ROI) are direct and certain, an overall positive effect on risk adjusted return on investments (ROIRA) is visible. Please note that the taxation is introduced as a monetary/regulatory, not as a _scal measure, as the term could suggest. The rescue fund is implemented in a form of a common reserve fund. PMID:26177351

  12. Propulsion Risk Reduction Activities for Non-Toxic Cryogenic Propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Timothy D.; Klem, Mark D.; Fisher, Kenneth

    2010-01-01

    The Propulsion and Cryogenics Advanced Development (PCAD) Project s primary objective is to develop propulsion system technologies for non-toxic or "green" propellants. The PCAD project focuses on the development of non-toxic propulsion technologies needed to provide necessary data and relevant experience to support informed decisions on implementation of non-toxic propellants for space missions. Implementation of non-toxic propellants in high performance propulsion systems offers NASA an opportunity to consider other options than current hypergolic propellants. The PCAD Project is emphasizing technology efforts in reaction control system (RCS) thruster designs, ascent main engines (AME), and descent main engines (DME). PCAD has a series of tasks and contracts to conduct risk reduction and/or retirement activities to demonstrate that non-toxic cryogenic propellants can be a feasible option for space missions. Work has focused on 1) reducing the risk of liquid oxygen/liquid methane ignition, demonstrating the key enabling technologies, and validating performance levels for reaction control engines for use on descent and ascent stages; 2) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for liquid oxygen/liquid methane ascent engines; and 3) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for deep throttling liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen descent engines. The progress of these risk reduction and/or retirement activities will be presented.

  13. Propulsion Risk Reduction Activities for Nontoxic Cryogenic Propulsion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Smith, Timothy D.; Klem, Mark D.; Fisher, Kenneth L.

    2010-01-01

    The Propulsion and Cryogenics Advanced Development (PCAD) Project s primary objective is to develop propulsion system technologies for nontoxic or "green" propellants. The PCAD project focuses on the development of nontoxic propulsion technologies needed to provide necessary data and relevant experience to support informed decisions on implementation of nontoxic propellants for space missions. Implementation of nontoxic propellants in high performance propulsion systems offers NASA an opportunity to consider other options than current hypergolic propellants. The PCAD Project is emphasizing technology efforts in reaction control system (RCS) thruster designs, ascent main engines (AME), and descent main engines (DME). PCAD has a series of tasks and contracts to conduct risk reduction and/or retirement activities to demonstrate that nontoxic cryogenic propellants can be a feasible option for space missions. Work has focused on 1) reducing the risk of liquid oxygen/liquid methane ignition, demonstrating the key enabling technologies, and validating performance levels for reaction control engines for use on descent and ascent stages; 2) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for liquid oxygen/liquid methane ascent engines; and 3) demonstrating the key enabling technologies and validating performance levels for deep throttling liquid oxygen/liquid hydrogen descent engines. The progress of these risk reduction and/or retirement activities will be presented.

  14. Advances in earthquake and tsunami sciences and disaster risk reduction since the 2004 Indian ocean tsunami

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Satake, Kenji

    2014-12-01

    The December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami was the worst tsunami disaster in the world's history with more than 200,000 casualties. This disaster was attributed to giant size (magnitude M ~ 9, source length >1000 km) of the earthquake, lacks of expectation of such an earthquake, tsunami warning system, knowledge and preparedness for tsunamis in the Indian Ocean countries. In the last ten years, seismology and tsunami sciences as well as tsunami disaster risk reduction have significantly developed. Progress in seismology includes implementation of earthquake early warning, real-time estimation of earthquake source parameters and tsunami potential, paleoseismological studies on past earthquakes and tsunamis, studies of probable maximum size, recurrence variability, and long-term forecast of large earthquakes in subduction zones. Progress in tsunami science includes accurate modeling of tsunami source such as contribution of horizontal components or "tsunami earthquakes", development of new types of offshore and deep ocean tsunami observation systems such as GPS buoys or bottom pressure gauges, deployments of DART gauges in the Pacific and other oceans, improvements in tsunami propagation modeling, and real-time inversion or data assimilation for the tsunami warning. These developments have been utilized for tsunami disaster reduction in the forms of tsunami early warning systems, tsunami hazard maps, and probabilistic tsunami hazard assessments. Some of the above scientific developments helped to reveal the source characteristics of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, which caused devastating tsunami damage in Japan and Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station accident. Toward tsunami disaster risk reduction, interdisciplinary and trans-disciplinary approaches are needed for scientists with other stakeholders.

  15. Breast and Ovarian Cancer Risk and Risk Reduction in Jewish BRCA1/2 Mutation Carriers

    PubMed Central

    Finkelman, Brian S.; Rubinstein, Wendy S.; Friedman, Sue; Friebel, Tara M.; Dubitsky, Shera; Schonberger, Niecee Singer; Shoretz, Rochelle; Singer, Christian F.; Blum, Joanne L.; Tung, Nadine; Olopade, Olufunmilayo I.; Weitzel, Jeffrey N.; Lynch, Henry T.; Snyder, Carrie; Garber, Judy E.; Schildkraut, Joellen; Daly, Mary B.; Isaacs, Claudine; Pichert, Gabrielle; Neuhausen, Susan L.; Couch, Fergus J.; van't Veer, Laura; Eeles, Rosalind; Bancroft, Elizabeth; Evans, D. Gareth; Ganz, Patricia A.; Tomlinson, Gail E.; Narod, Steven A.; Matloff, Ellen; Domchek, Susan; Rebbeck, Timothy R.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose Mutations in BRCA1/2 dramatically increase the risk of both breast and ovarian cancers. Three mutations in these genes (185delAG, 5382insC, and 6174delT) occur at high frequency in Ashkenazi Jews. We evaluated how these common Jewish mutations (CJMs) affect cancer risks and risk reduction. Methods Our cohort comprised 4,649 women with disease-associated BRCA1/2 mutations from 22 centers in the Prevention and Observation of Surgical End Points Consortium. Of these women, 969 were self-identified Jewish women. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate breast and ovarian cancer risks, as well as risk reduction from risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO), by CJM and self-identified Jewish status. Results Ninety-one percent of Jewish BRCA1/2-positive women carried a CJM. Jewish women were significantly more likely to undergo RRSO than non-Jewish women (54% v 41%, respectively; odds ratio, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.44 to 2.42). Relative risks of cancer varied by CJM, with the relative risk of breast cancer being significantly lower in 6174delT mutation carriers than in non-CJM BRCA2 carriers (hazard ratio, 0.35; 95% CI, 0.18 to 0.69). No significant difference was seen in cancer risk reduction after RRSO among subgroups. Conclusion Consistent with previous results, risks for breast and ovarian cancer varied by CJM in BRCA1/2 carriers. In particular, 6174delT carriers had a lower risk of breast cancer. This finding requires additional confirmation in larger prospective and population-based cohort studies before being integrated into clinical care. PMID:22430266

  16. Use of hazard assessments to achieve risk reduction in the USDOE Stockpile Stewardship (SS-21) Program

    SciTech Connect

    Fischer, S.R.; Konkel, H.; Bott, T.; Eisenhawer, S.W.; DeYoung, L.; Hockert, J.

    1995-07-01

    This paper summarizes the nuclear explosive hazard assessment activities performed to support US Department of Energy (DOE) Stockpile Stewardship Demonstration Project SS-21, better known as the ``Seamless Safety`` program. Past practice within the DOE Complex has dictated the use of a significant number of post-design/fabrication safety reviews to analyze the safety associated with operations on nuclear explosives and to answer safety questions. These practices have focused on reviewing-in or auditing-in safety vs incorporating safety in the design process. SS-21 was proposed by the DOE as an avenue to develop a program to ``integrate established, recognized, verifiable safety criteria into the process at the design stage rather than continuing the reliance on reviews, evaluations and audits.`` The entire Seamless Safety design and development process is verified by a concurrent hazard assessment (HA). The primary purpose of the SS-21 Demonstration Project HA was to demonstrate the feasibility of performing concurrent HAs as part of an engineering design and development effort and then to evaluate the use of the HA to provide an indication in the risk reduction or gain in safety achieved. To accomplish this objective, HAs were performed on both baseline (i.e., old) and new (i.e. SS-21) B61-0 Center Case Section disassembly processes. These HAs were used to support the identification and documentation of weapon- and process-specific hazards and safety-critical operating steps. Both HAs focused on identifying accidents that had the potential for worker injury, public health effects, facility damage, toxic gas release, and dispersal of radioactive materials. A comparison of the baseline and SS-21 process risks provided a semi-quantitative estimate of the risk reduction gained via the Seamless Safety process.

  17. Tenth Warren K. Sinclair keynote address-the Fukushima nuclear power plant accident and comprehensive health risk management.

    PubMed

    Yamashita, Shunichi

    2014-02-01

    Just two years have passed since the Tokyo Electric Power Company-Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) accident, a multidimensional disaster that combined to destroy the local infrastructure on which the safety system depended and gave a serious impact to the world. Countermeasures including evacuation, sheltering, and control of the food chain were implemented in a timely manner by the Japanese government. However, there is a clear need for improvement, especially in the areas of nuclear safety and protection and also in the management of the radiation health risk during and even after the accident. To date there have been no acute radiation injuries. The radiation-related physical health consequences to the general public, including evacuees, are likely to be much lower than those arising from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident, because the radiation fallout and the subsequent environmental contamination were much more limited. However, the social, psychological, and economic impacts of the Fukushima NPP accident are expected to be considerable. Currently, continued monitoring and characterization of the levels of radioactivity in the environment and foods in Fukushima are vital for obtaining informed consent to the decisions on living in the areas already radiocontaminated and returning back to the evacuated areas once re-entry is permitted; it is also important to perform a realistic assessment of the radiation doses on the basis of measurements. We are currently implementing the official plans of the Fukushima Health Management Survey, which includes a basic survey for the estimation of the external doses that were received during the first 4 mo after the accident and four more detailed surveys (thyroid ultrasound examination, comprehensive health check-up, mental health and life-style survey, and survey of pregnant women and nursing mothers), with the aim to take care of the health of all of the residents of the Fukushima Prefecture for a long time

  18. JWST Pathfinder Telescope Risk Reduction Cryo Test Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Matthews, Gary W.; Scorse, Thomas R.; Spina, John A.; Noel, Darin M.; Havey, Keith A., Jr.; Huguet, Jesse A.; Whitman, Tony L.; Wells, Conrad; Walker, Chanda B.; Lunt, Sharon; Hadaway, James B.; Keski-Kuha, Ritva; Feinberg, Lee D.; Voyton, Mark F.; Lander, Juli A.; Marsh, James M.

    2015-01-01

    In 2014, the Optical Ground Support Equipment was integrated into the large cryo vacuum chamber at Johnson Space Center (JSC) and an initial Chamber Commissioning Test was completed. This insured that the support equipment was ready for the three Pathfinder telescope cryo tests. The Pathfinder telescope which consists of two primary mirror segment assemblies and the secondary mirror was delivered to JSC in February 2015 in support of this critical risk reduction test program prior to the flight hardware. This paper will detail the Chamber Commissioning and first optical test of the JWST Pathfinder telescope.

  19. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    PubMed

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP.

  20. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant

    PubMed Central

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents’ risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  1. Bipolarization of Risk Perception about the Health Effects of Radiation in Residents after the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant.

    PubMed

    Orita, Makiko; Hayashida, Naomi; Nakayama, Yumi; Shinkawa, Tetsuko; Urata, Hideko; Fukushima, Yoshiko; Endo, Yuuko; Yamashita, Shunichi; Takamura, Noboru

    2015-01-01

    The late health effects of low-dose rate radiation exposure are still a serious public concern in the Fukushima area even four years after the accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant (FNPP). To clarify the factors associated with residents' risk perception of radiation exposure and consequent health effects, we conducted a survey among residents of Kawauchi village in May and June 2014, which is located within 30 km of FNPP. 85 of 285 residents (29.8%) answered that acute radiation syndrome might develop in residents after the accident, 154 (54.0%) residents responded that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on children, and 140 (49.1%) residents indicated that they had anxieties about the health effects of radiation on offspring. Furthermore, 107 (37.5%) residents answered that they had concerns about health effects that would appear in the general population simply by living in an environment with a 0.23 μSv per hour ambient dose for one year, 149 (52.2%) residents reported that they were reluctant to eat locally produced foods, and 164 (57.5%) residents believed that adverse health effects would occur in the general population by eating 100 Bq per kg of mushrooms every day for one year. The present study shows that a marked bipolarization of the risk perception about the health effects of radiation among residents could have a major impact on social well-being after the accident at FNPP. PMID:26057539

  2. Risk reduction for nonmelanoma skin cancer with childhood sunscreen use

    SciTech Connect

    Stern, R.S.; Weinstein, M.C.; Baker, S.G.

    1986-05-01

    Exposure to ultraviolet radiation is the principle cause of basal and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin, which are the most frequent tumors occurring in white residents of the United States. Using a mathematical model based on epidemiologic data, we quantified the potential benefits of using a sunscreen with a sun protective factor of 15 and estimate that regular use of such a sunscreen during the first 18 years of life would reduce the lifetime incidence of these tumors by 78%. Additional benefits of sunscreen use during childhood include reduced risk of sunburn, retarding the pace of skin aging, and possible reduction in melanoma risk. We recommend that pediatricians encourage sunscreen use and sun avoidance as a regular part of pediatric preventive health care.

  3. Disaster risk reduction in developing countries: costs, benefits and institutions.

    PubMed

    Kenny, Charles

    2012-10-01

    Some 60,000 people worldwide die annually in natural disasters, mostly due to the collapse of buildings in earthquakes, and primarily in the developing world. This is despite the fact that engineering solutions exist that can eliminate almost completely the risk of such deaths. Why is this? The solutions are expensive and technically demanding, so their cost-benefit ratio often is unfavourable as compared to other interventions. Nonetheless, there are various public disaster risk reduction interventions that are highly cost-effective. That such interventions frequently remain unimplemented or ineffectively executed points to a role for issues of political economy. Building regulations in developing countries appear to have limited impact in many cases, perhaps because of inadequate capacity and corruption. Public construction often is of low quality, perhaps for similar reasons. This suggests the need for approaches that emphasise simple and limited disaster risk regulation covering only the most at-risk structures-and that, preferably, non-experts can monitor-as well as numerous transparency and oversight mechanisms for public construction projects.

  4. Kennedy Space Center Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Program evaluation.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Kristine S; Smallwood, Charles; Tipton, David A

    2008-01-01

    This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values) are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03); diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002); total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001) as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04). Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05); and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001). These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information at the worksite to high risk CVD participants may impact CVD risk factors.

  5. Kennedy Space Center Cardiovascular Disease Risk Reduction Program evaluation.

    PubMed

    Calderon, Kristine S; Smallwood, Charles; Tipton, David A

    2008-01-01

    This program evaluation examined the Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Risk Reduction Program which aims to identify CVD risk factors and reduce these risk factors through health education phone counseling. High risk participants (those having two or more elevated lipid values) are identified from monthly voluntary CVD screenings and counseled. Phone counseling consists of reviewing lab values with the participant, discussing dietary fat intake frequency using an intake questionnaire, and promoting the increase in exercise frequency. The participants are followed-up at two-months and five-months for relevant metrics including blood pressure, weight, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein (HDL) and low density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol, triglycerides, dietary fat intake, and exercise frequency. Data for three years of the KSC CVD Program included 366 participants, average age of 49 years, 75% male, and 25% female. For those with complete two and five month follow-up data, significant baseline to two-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in systolic blood pressure (p = 0.03); diastolic blood pressure (p = 0.002); total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary fat intake (all three at p < 0.0001) as well as a significant increase in exercise frequency (p = 0.04). Significant baseline to five-month follow-up comparisons included decreases in triglycerides (p = 0.05); and total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol and dietary intake (all three at p < 0.0001). These program evaluation results indicate that providing brief phone health education counseling and information at the worksite to high risk CVD participants may impact CVD risk factors. PMID:18561517

  6. Risks of pedestrian serious injuries and fatalities associated with impact velocities of cars in car-versus-pedestrian accidents in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko; Ando, Kenichi

    2013-11-01

    The first purpose of this study is to clarify the relation between the car impact velocity and pedestrian injury severity or mortality risk. We investigated the frequency of serious injuries and fatalities of pedestrians using vehicle-pedestrian accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, minivans, and box vans (ordinary automobiles) and light passenger cars and light cargo vans (light automobiles). The results revealed that a 10-km/h reduction in impact velocity could mitigate severe pedestrian injuries in cases involving impact velocities of 40 km/h or more for the five vehicle types analyzed. Specifically, if the impact velocity was 30 km/h or less, the frequency of serious injuries was less than 27% and the frequency of fatalities was less than 5% for the five vehicle types. Therefore, if the collision damage mitigation braking system (CDMBS) that uses a sensor to detect pedestrians can effectively reduce the impact velocity for various vehicle types, pedestrian injuries will be greatly mitigated. The second purpose of this study is to identify the factors that affect injury risk. Impact experiments were conducted in which a sedan impacted against a pedestrian full-scale dummy at 40 km/h and a pedestrian headform impactor was impacted against a road surface. The results indicated that the risk of pedestrian serious injury was significantly affected by multiple impact conditions, such as the pedestrian height, car impact velocity, car frontal shape, and car stiffness in cases where the car impacted the pedestrian's head, the degrees of influence of which were driven by the vehicle impact velocity.

  7. Landslide risk reduction strategies: an inventory for the Global South

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maes, Jan; Kervyn, Matthieu; Vranken, Liesbet; Dewitte, Olivier; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Mertens, Kewan; Jacobs, Liesbet; Poesen, Jean

    2015-04-01

    Landslides constitute a serious problem globally. Moreover, landslide impact remains underestimated especially in the Global South. It is precisely there where the largest impact is experienced. An overview of measures taken to reduce risk of landslides in the Global South is however still lacking. Because in many countries of the Global South disaster risk reduction (DRR) is at an emerging stage, it is crucial to monitor the ongoing efforts (e.g. discussions on the Post-2015 Framework for DRR). The first objective of this study is to make an inventory of techniques and strategies that are applied to reduce risk from landslides in tropical countries. The second objective is to investigate what are the main bottlenecks for implementation of DRR strategies. In order to achieve these objectives, a review of both scientific and grey literature was conducted, supplemented with expert knowledge. The compilation of recommended and implemented DRR measures from landslide-prone tropical countries is based on an adapted classification proposed by the SafeLand project. According to Vaciago (2013), landslide risk can be reduced by either reducing the hazard, the vulnerability, the number or value of elements at risk or by sharing the residual risk. In addition, these measures can be combined with education and/or awareness raising and are influenced by governance structures and cultural beliefs. Global landslide datasets have been used to identify landslide-prone countries, augmented with region-specific datasets. Countries located in the tropics were selected in order to include landslide-prone countries with a different Human Development Index (HDI) but with a similar climate. Preliminary results support the statement made by Anderson (2013) that although the importance of shifting from post-disaster emergency actions to pre-disaster mitigation is acknowledged, in practice this paradigm shift seems rather limited. It is expected that this is especially the case in countries

  8. Smartphone Delivery of Mobile HIV Risk Reduction Education.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Karran A; Epstein, David H; Mezghanni, Mustapha; Vahabzadeh, Massoud; Reamer, David; Agage, Daniel; Preston, Kenzie L

    2013-01-01

    We sought to develop and deploy a video-based smartphone-delivered mobile HIV Risk Reduction (mHIVRR) intervention to individuals in an addiction treatment clinic. We developed 3 video modules that consisted of a 10-minute HIVRR video, 11 acceptability questions, and 3 knowledge questions and deployed them as a secondary study within a larger study of ecological momentary and geographical momentary assessments. All 24 individuals who remained in the main study long enough completed the mHIVRR secondary study. All 3 videos met our a priori criteria for acceptability "as is" in the population: they achieved median scores of ≤2.5 on a 5-point Likert scale; ≤20% of the individuals gave them the most negative rating on the scale; a majority of the individuals stated that they would not prefer other formats over video-based smartphone-delivered one (all P < 0.05). Additionally, all of our video modules met our a priori criteria for feasibility: ≤20% of data were missing due to participant noncompliance and ≤20% were missing due to technical failure. We concluded that video-based mHIVRR education delivered via smartphone is acceptable, feasible and may increase HIV/STD risk reduction knowledge. Future studies, with pre-intervention assessments of knowledge and random assignment, are needed to confirm these findings. PMID:24159383

  9. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-11-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of general systems theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the "state of the system". The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm.

  10. Resilience and disaster risk reduction: an etymological journey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alexander, D. E.

    2013-04-01

    This paper examines the development over historical time of the meaning and uses of the term resilience. The objective is to deepen our understanding of how the term came to be adopted in disaster risk reduction and resolve some of the conflicts and controversies that have arisen when it has been used. The paper traces the development of resilience through the sciences, humanities, and legal and political spheres. It considers how mechanics passed the word to ecology and psychology, and how from there it was adopted by social research and sustainability science. As other authors have noted, as a concept, resilience involves some potentially serious conflicts or contradictions, for example between stability and dynamism, or between dynamic equilibrium (homeostasis) and evolution. Moreover, although the resilience concept works quite well within the confines of General Systems Theory, in situations in which a systems formulation inhibits rather than fosters explanation, a different interpretation of the term is warranted. This may be the case for disaster risk reduction, which involves transformation rather than preservation of the ''state of the system''. The article concludes that the modern conception of resilience derives benefit from a rich history of meanings and applications, but that it is dangerous - or at least potentially disappointing - to read to much into the term as a model and a paradigm. Sagitta in lapidem numquam figitur, interdum resiliens percutit dirigentem. ("An arrow never lodges in a stone: often it recoils upon its sender.") St. John Chrysostom (c. 347-407), Archbishop of Constantinople.

  11. The manzamarketing system for forest fire risk reduction

    SciTech Connect

    Burton, R.E.

    1994-12-31

    A key to forest fire risk reduction to the required level is the development of a market for removed materials. Such market must be found or developed to a degree that income from the sale of the removed material will cover the expenses of the required forest removal operations and provide a margin of profit sufficient for entrepeneurs to carry out the vital work. A successful approach should make full use of the removed material which may include short piece lumber for fine wood products, charcoal, animal feed and compost. Innovative machinery to carry out the thinning operations without damage to the forest are described. Portable units permitting on-site solar-vacuum drying, sawing and processing are planned using photo-voltaics, reducing noise and any internal combustion hazards. A major firestorm like the Calaveras, Fountain or Yellowstone is usually described to the public in terms of highways closed, houses burned and lives lost. The media seldom mentions the silting of hydroelectric reservoirs and the loss of water-absorbing top soil. No one ever considers chaparral as a renewable resource and/or wildlife habitat. The cost to the State for a big campaign fire can be millions of dollars. This paper describes EBC Company`s effort to find a market for material removed from thinning operations as part of the forest fire risk reduction.

  12. Reduction factors for wooden houses due to external γ-radiation based on in situ measurements after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Yoshida-Ohuchi, Hiroko; Hosoda, Masahiro; Kanagami, Takashi; Uegaki, Masaki; Tashima, Hideo

    2014-12-18

    For estimation of residents' exposure dose after a nuclear accident, the reduction factor, which is the ratio of the indoor dose to the outdoor dose is essential, as most individuals spend a large portion of their time indoors. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, we evaluated the median reduction factor with an interquartile range of 0.43 (0.34-0.53) based on 522 survey results for 69 detached wooden houses in two evacuation zones, Iitate village and Odaka district. The results indicated no statistically significant difference in the median reduction factor to the representative value of 0.4 given in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-TECDOC-225 and 1162. However, with regard to the representative range of the reduction factor, we recommend the wider range of 0.2 to 0.7 or at least 0.2 to 0.6, which covered 87.7% and 80.7% of the data, respectively, rather than 0.2 to 0.5 given in the IAEA document, which covered only 66.5% of the data. We found that the location of the room within the house and area topography, and the use of cement roof tiles had the greatest influence on the reduction factor.

  13. Reduction factors for wooden houses due to external γ-radiation based on in situ measurements after the Fukushima nuclear accident

    PubMed Central

    Yoshida-Ohuchi, Hiroko; Hosoda, Masahiro; Kanagami, Takashi; Uegaki, Masaki; Tashima, Hideo

    2014-01-01

    For estimation of residents' exposure dose after a nuclear accident, the reduction factor, which is the ratio of the indoor dose to the outdoor dose is essential, as most individuals spend a large portion of their time indoors. After the Fukushima nuclear accident, we evaluated the median reduction factor with an interquartile range of 0.43 (0.34–0.53) based on 522 survey results for 69 detached wooden houses in two evacuation zones, Iitate village and Odaka district. The results indicated no statistically significant difference in the median reduction factor to the representative value of 0.4 given in the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)-TECDOC-225 and 1162. However, with regard to the representative range of the reduction factor, we recommend the wider range of 0.2 to 0.7 or at least 0.2 to 0.6, which covered 87.7% and 80.7% of the data, respectively, rather than 0.2 to 0.5 given in the IAEA document, which covered only 66.5% of the data. We found that the location of the room within the house and area topography, and the use of cement roof tiles had the greatest influence on the reduction factor. PMID:25519512

  14. Energy choices and risk beliefs: is it just global warming and fear of a nuclear power plant accident?

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Michael; Truelove, Heather Barnes

    2011-05-01

    A survey of 3,200 U.S. residents focused on two issues associated with the use of nuclear and coal fuels to produce electrical energy. The first was the association between risk beliefs and preferences for coal and nuclear energy. As expected, concern about nuclear power plant accidents led to decreased support for nuclear power, and those who believed that coal causes global warming preferred less coal use. Yet other risk beliefs about the coal and nuclear energy fuel cycles were stronger or equal correlates of public preferences. The second issue is the existence of what we call acknowledged risk takers, respondents who favored increased reliance on nuclear energy, although also noting that there could be a serious nuclear plant accident, and those who favored greater coal use, despite acknowledging a link to global warming. The pro-nuclear group disproportionately was affluent educated white males, and the pro-coal group was relatively poor less educated African-American and Latino females. Yet both shared four similarities: older age, trust in management, belief that the energy facilities help the local economy, and individualistic personal values. These findings show that there is no single public with regard to energy preferences and risk beliefs. Rather, there are multiple populations with different viewpoints that surely would benefit by hearing a clear and comprehensive national energy life cycle policy from the national government.

  15. 2nd Generation RLV Risk Reduction Definition Program: Pratt & Whitney Propulsion Risk Reduction Requirements Program (TA-3 & TA-4)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Matlock, Steve

    2001-01-01

    This is the final report and addresses all of the work performed on this program. Specifically, it covers vehicle architecture background, definition of six baseline engine cycles, reliability baseline (space shuttle main engine QRAS), and component level reliability/performance/cost for the six baseline cycles, and selection of 3 cycles for further study. This report further addresses technology improvement selection and component level reliability/performance/cost for the three cycles selected for further study, as well as risk reduction plans, and recommendation for future studies.

  16. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-01

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger's injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  17. Partial least square method for modelling ergonomic risks factors on express bus accidents in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia

    SciTech Connect

    Hashim, Yusof bin; Taha, Zahari bin

    2015-02-03

    Public, stake holders and authorities in Malaysian government show great concern towards high numbers of passenger’s injuries and passengers fatalities in express bus accident. This paper studies the underlying factors involved in determining ergonomics risk factors towards human error as the reasons in express bus accidents in order to develop an integrated analytical framework. Reliable information about drivers towards bus accident should lead to the design of strategies intended to make the public feel safe in public transport services. In addition there is an analysis of ergonomics risk factors to determine highly ergonomic risk factors which led to accidents. The research was performed in east coast of peninsular Malaysia using variance-based structural equation modeling namely the Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression techniques. A questionnaire survey was carried out at random among 65 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuantan in Pahang and among 49 express bus drivers operating from the city of Kuala Terengganu in Terengganu to all towns in the east coast of peninsular west Malaysia. The ergonomic risks factors questionnaire is based on demographic information, occupational information, organizational safety climate, ergonomic workplace, physiological factors, stress at workplace, physical fatigue and near miss accidents. The correlation and significant values between latent constructs (near miss accident) were analyzed using SEM SmartPLS, 3M. The finding shows that the correlated ergonomic risks factors (occupational information, t=2.04, stress at workplace, t = 2.81, physiological factor, t=2.08) are significant to physical fatigue and as the mediator to near miss accident at t = 2.14 at p<0.05and T-statistics, t>1.96. The results shows that the effects of physical fatigue due to ergonomic risks factors influence the human error as the reasons in express bus accidents.

  18. A School-Based Intervention for Diabetes Risk Reduction

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    BACKGROUND We examined the effects of a multicomponent, school-based program addressing risk factors for diabetes among children whose race or ethnic group and socioeconomic status placed them at high risk for obesity and type 2 diabetes. METHODS Using a cluster design, we randomly assigned 42 schools to either a multicomponent school-based intervention (21 schools) or assessment only (control, 21 schools). A total of 4603 students participated (mean [±SD] age, 11.3±0.6 years; 54.2% Hispanic and 18.0% black; 52.7% girls). At the beginning of 6th grade and the end of 8th grade, students underwent measurements of body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference, and fasting glucose and insulin levels. RESULTS There was a decrease in the primary outcome — the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity — in both the intervention and control schools, with no significant difference between the school groups. The intervention schools had greater reductions in the secondary outcomes of BMI z score, percentage of students with waist circumference at or above the 90th percentile, fasting insulin levels (P = 0.04 for all comparisons), and prevalence of obesity (P = 0.05). Similar findings were observed among students who were at or above the 85th percentile for BMI at baseline. Less than 3% of the students who were screened had an adverse event; the proportions were nearly equivalent in the intervention and control schools. CONCLUSIONS Our comprehensive school-based program did not result in greater decreases in the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity than those that occurred in control schools. However, the intervention did result in significantly greater reductions in various indexes of adiposity. These changes may reduce the risk of childhood-onset type 2 diabetes. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and the American Diabetes Association; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00458029.) PMID:20581420

  19. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

    PubMed

    Lewis, James

    2012-01-01

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

  20. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC)

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, James

    2012-01-01

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes—and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters—tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which “vulnerability drivers” emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability. PMID:22919564

  1. The Good, The Bad and The Ugly: Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Versus Disaster Risk Creation (DRC).

    PubMed

    Lewis, James

    2012-01-01

    In understanding and trying to reduce the risk from disasters, connections are often articulated amongst poverty, vulnerability, risk, and disasters. These are welcome steps, but the approach taken in top-down international documents is rarely to articulate explicitly that vulnerability accrues from a wide variety of dynamic and long-term processes. Neglecting these processes-and failing to explore their links with poverty, risk, and disasters-tends to encourage disaster risk creation. This paper identifies seven examples of on-the-ground realities of long-term vulnerability within two clusters: Endangerment: 1 Environmental degradation. 2 Discrimination. 3 Displacement. Impoverishment: 4 Self-seeking public expenditure. 5 Denial of access to resources. 6 Corruption. 7 Siphoning of public money. Examples are presented as vignettes, many contemporary and many rooted in historical contexts, to demonstrate the extent to which "vulnerability drivers" emanate from greed, the misuse of political and commercial power, mismanagement and incompetence amongst other behaviours. Moving forward to the tackling of disaster risk creation, instead of simply seeking disaster risk reduction, requires detailed investigation into these contemporary and historical realities of the causes of vulnerability. That would support the integration of disaster risk reduction within the many wider contexts that foment and perpetuate vulnerability.

  2. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    Robert S. Balch; Ron Broadhead

    2005-03-01

    Incomplete or sparse data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduce a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results when working with sparse data. State-of-the-art expert exploration tools, relying on a database, and computer maps generated by neural networks and user inputs, have been developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk has been reduced with the use of these properly verified and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tools.'' Through the course of this project, FEE Tools and supporting software were developed for two producing formations in southeast New Mexico. Tools of this type can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In today's oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lack the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, volatile oil prices, and scarcity of domestic exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tools benefit a diverse group in the U.S., allowing a more efficient use of scarce funds, and potentially reducing dependence on foreign oil and providing lower product prices for consumers.

  3. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    William W. Weiss

    2000-12-31

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed for development through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This tool will be beneficial in many regions of the US, enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting and decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the US as reserves are depleted. The proposed expert exploration tool will benefit a diverse group in the US, leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. This third of ten semi-annual reports contains an account of the progress, problems encountered, plans for the next quarter, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress.

  4. Sustained improvement of attitudes about epilepsy following a reduction in media coverage of car accidents involving persons with epilepsy.

    PubMed

    Okumura, Akihisa; Nakazawa, Mika; Abe, Shinpei; Ikeno, Mitsuru; Igarashi, Ayuko; Shimizu, Toshiaki

    2015-07-01

    To evaluate changes in the attitudes of nonmedical students about epilepsy, the present study compared the results of a questionnaire that was completed in three different time periods: before media coverage of car accidents associated with epilepsy, during a period of abundant media coverage about epilepsy-related accidents, and after media coverage of epilepsy-related accidents. The nonmedical students who completed the questionnaire were divided into three groups: Years 08-10 (preaccident era), Years 11-12 (media coverage era), and Years 13-14 (postmedia coverage era). The rates of students who had read or heard about epilepsy and of students who did not think that epilepsy was a mental disorder increased annually throughout the study period. There was an improvement in attitudes about epilepsy after the media coverage era, and this change was not altered even after a decrease in the media coverage of epilepsy-related car accidents. Additionally, the rate of positive answers did not differ between Years 11-12 and Years 13-14. These findings demonstrate that the familiarity with and improved attitudes about epilepsy were sustained even after the media coverage of car accidents involving persons with epilepsy had decreased.

  5. Effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the risk perception of residents near a nuclear power plant in China

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Lei; Zhou, Ying; Han, Yuting; Hammitt, James K.; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang

    2013-01-01

    We assessed the influence of the Fukushima nuclear accident (FNA) on the Chinese public’s attitude and acceptance of nuclear power plants in China. Two surveys (before and after the FNA) were administered to separate subsamples of residents near the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, China. A structural equation model was constructed to describe the public acceptance of nuclear power and four risk perception factors: knowledge, perceived risk, benefit, and trust. Regression analysis was conducted to estimate the relationship between acceptance of nuclear power and the risk perception factors while controlling for demographic variables. Meanwhile, we assessed the median public acceptable frequencies for three levels of nuclear events. The FNA had a significant impact on risk perception of the Chinese public, especially on the factor of perceived risk, which increased from limited risk to great risk. Public acceptance of nuclear power decreased significantly after the FNA. The most sensitive groups include females, those not in public service, those with lower income, and those living close to the Tianwan nuclear power plant. Fifty percent of the survey respondents considered it acceptable to have a nuclear anomaly no more than once in 50 y. For nuclear incidents and serious incidents, the frequencies are once in 100 y and 150 y, respectively. The change in risk perception and acceptance may be attributed to the FNA. Decreased acceptance of nuclear power after the FNA among the Chinese public creates additional obstacles to further development of nuclear power in China and require effective communication strategies. PMID:24248341

  6. A Bayesian network for assessing the collision induced risk of an oil accident in the Gulf of Finland.

    PubMed

    Lehikoinen, Annukka; Hänninen, Maria; Storgård, Jenni; Luoma, Emilia; Mäntyniemi, Samu; Kuikka, Sakari

    2015-05-01

    The growth of maritime oil transportation in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-Eastern Baltic Sea, increases environmental risks by increasing the probability of oil accidents. By integrating the work of a multidisciplinary research team and information from several sources, we have developed a probabilistic risk assessment application that considers the likely future development of maritime traffic and oil transportation in the area and the resulting risk of environmental pollution. This metamodel is used to compare the effects of two preventative management actions on the tanker collision probabilities and the consequent risk. The resulting risk is evaluated from four different perspectives. Bayesian networks enable large amounts of information about causalities to be integrated and utilized in probabilistic inference. Compared with the baseline period of 2007-2008, the worst-case scenario is that the risk level increases 4-fold by the year 2015. The management measures are evaluated and found to decrease the risk by 4-13%, but the utility gained by their joint implementation would be less than the sum of their independent effects. In addition to the results concerning the varying risk levels, the application provides interesting information about the relationships between the different elements of the system. PMID:25780862

  7. Effect of the Fukushima nuclear accident on the risk perception of residents near a nuclear power plant in China.

    PubMed

    Huang, Lei; Zhou, Ying; Han, Yuting; Hammitt, James K; Bi, Jun; Liu, Yang

    2013-12-01

    We assessed the influence of the Fukushima nuclear accident (FNA) on the Chinese public's attitude and acceptance of nuclear power plants in China. Two surveys (before and after the FNA) were administered to separate subsamples of residents near the Tianwan nuclear power plant in Lianyungang, China. A structural equation model was constructed to describe the public acceptance of nuclear power and four risk perception factors: knowledge, perceived risk, benefit, and trust. Regression analysis was conducted to estimate the relationship between acceptance of nuclear power and the risk perception factors while controlling for demographic variables. Meanwhile, we assessed the median public acceptable frequencies for three levels of nuclear events. The FNA had a significant impact on risk perception of the Chinese public, especially on the factor of perceived risk, which increased from limited risk to great risk. Public acceptance of nuclear power decreased significantly after the FNA. The most sensitive groups include females, those not in public service, those with lower income, and those living close to the Tianwan nuclear power plant. Fifty percent of the survey respondents considered it acceptable to have a nuclear anomaly no more than once in 50 y. For nuclear incidents and serious incidents, the frequencies are once in 100 y and 150 y, respectively. The change in risk perception and acceptance may be attributed to the FNA. Decreased acceptance of nuclear power after the FNA among the Chinese public creates additional obstacles to further development of nuclear power in China and require effective communication strategies.

  8. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Main report and appendices, Volume 6, Part 1

    SciTech Connect

    Brown, T.D.; Kmetyk, L.N.; Whitehead, D.; Miller, L.; Forester, J.; Johnson, J.

    1995-03-01

    Traditionally, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAS) of severe accidents in nuclear power plants have considered initiating events potentially occurring only during full power operation. Recent studies and operational experience have, however, implied that accidents during low power and shutdown could be significant contributors to risk. In response to this concern, in 1989 the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The program consists of two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (Surry) and Sandia National Laboratories (Grand Gulf). The program objectives include assessing the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and comparing the estimated risks with the risk associated with accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program is that of a Level-3 PRA. The subject of this report is the PRA of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, Unit 1. The Grand Gulf plant utilizes a 3833 MWt BUR-6 boiling water reactor housed in a Mark III containment. The Grand Gulf plant is located near Port Gibson, Mississippi. The regime of shutdown analyzed in this study was plant operational state (POS) 5 during a refueling outage, which is approximately Cold Shutdown as defined by Grand Gulf Technical Specifications. The entire PRA of POS 5 is documented in a multi-volume NUREG report (NUREG/CR-6143). The internal events accident sequence analysis (Level 1) is documented in Volume 2. The Level 1 internal fire and internal flood analyses are documented in Vols 3 and 4, respectively.

  9. Ethical questions in landslide management and risk reduction in Norway

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taurisano, A.; Lyche, E.; Thakur, V.; Wiig, T.; Øvrelid, K.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    ? As a result, we may use large amounts of money to mitigate the risk for a few houses with a yearly probability of damage of 1/300 and not do anything for an isolated farm with a yearly probability of damage larger than 1/50. 3. Is it ethical to stop the plan to construct a pedestrian and a cycling way or a new road crossing exposed to potential landslide hazard, when the delay or disapproval of the implementation of the plan itself involves a severe consequence than the actual landslide hazard? 4. Most fatalities from natural hazards in Norway happen because of snow avalanches in recreational activities. On the one hand, this suggests that one should use a large share of the annual budget to prevent this type of accident, where there are most lives to spare. On the other hand, one could argue that the voluntary exposure to hazard shouldn't be given too much priority at the expense of buildings and public infrastructures. 5. More generally, how ethical is it to use large amounts of money to manage hazards that has a remote probability to occur or that will not cause human losses or property damage, instead of for example strengthening other social demands?

  10. A probabilistic risk assessment of the LLNL Plutonium Facility`s evaluation basis fire operational accident. Revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Brumburgh, G. P.

    1995-02-27

    The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) Plutonium Facility conducts numerous programmatic activities involving plutonium to include device fabrication, development of improved and/or unique fabrication techniques, metallurgy research, and laser isotope separation. A Safety Analysis Report (SAR) for the building 332 Plutonium Facility was completed in July 1994 to address operational safety and acceptable risk to employees, the public, government property, and the environmental. This paper outlines the PRA analysis of the Evaluation Basis Fire (EBF) operational accident. The EBF postulates the worst-case programmatic impact event for the Plutonium Facility.

  11. National Aerospace Plane Integrated Fuselage/Cryotank Risk Reduction program

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dayton, K. E.

    1993-06-01

    The principal objectives and results of the National Aerospace Plane (NASP) Integrated Risk Reduction program are briefly reviewed. The program demonstrated the feasibility of manufacturing lightweight advanced composite materials for single-stage-to-orbit hypersonic flight vehicle applications. A series of combined load simulation tests (thermal, mechanical, and cryogenic) demonstrated proof of concept performance for an all unlined composite cryogenic fuel tank with flat end bulkheads and a high-temperature thin-shell advanced composite fuselage. Temperatures of the fuselage were as high as 1300 F, with 100 percent bending and shear loads applied to the tank while filled with 850 gallons of cryogenic fluid hydrogen (-425 F). Leak rates measured on and around the cryotank shell and bulkheads were well below acceptable levels.

  12. Global Human Settlement Analysis for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pesaresi, M.; Ehrlich, D.; Ferri, S.; Florczyk, A.; Freire, S.; Haag, F.; Halkia, M.; Julea, A. M.; Kemper, T.; Soille, P.

    2015-04-01

    The Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) is supported by the European Commission, Joint Research Center (JRC) in the frame of his institutional research activities. Scope of GHSL is developing, testing and applying the technologies and analysis methods integrated in the JRC Global Human Settlement analysis platform for applications in support to global disaster risk reduction initiatives (DRR) and regional analysis in the frame of the European Cohesion policy. GHSL analysis platform uses geo-spatial data, primarily remotely sensed and population. GHSL also cooperates with the Group on Earth Observation on SB-04-Global Urban Observation and Information, and various international partners andWorld Bank and United Nations agencies. Some preliminary results integrating global human settlement information extracted from Landsat data records of the last 40 years and population data are presented.

  13. Risk reduction and the privatization option: First principles

    SciTech Connect

    Bjornstad, D.J.; Jones, D.W.; Russell, M.; Cummings, R.C.; Valdez, G.; Duemmer, C.L.

    1997-06-25

    The Department of Energy`s Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) faces a challenging mission. To increase efficiency, EM is undertaking a number of highly innovative initiatives--two of which are of particular importance to the present study. One is the 2006 Plan, a planning and budgeting process that seeks to convert the clean-up program from a temporally and fiscally open-ended endeavor to a strictly bounded one, with firm commitments over a decade-long horizon. The second is a major overhauling of the management and contracting practices that define the relationship between the Department and the private sector, aimed at cost reduction by increasing firms` responsibilities and profit opportunities and reducing DOE`s direct participation in management practices and decisions. The goal of this paper is to provide an independent perspective on how EM should create new management practices to deal with private sector partners that are motivated by financial incentives. It seeks to ground this perspective in real world concerns--the background of the clean-up effort, the very difficult technical challenges it faces, the very real threats to environment, health and safety that have now been juxtaposed with financial drivers, and the constraints imposed by government`s unique business practices and public responsibilities. The approach is to raise issues through application of first principles. The paper is targeted at the EM policy officer who must implement the joint visions of the 2006 plan and privatization within the context of the tradeoff between terminal risk reduction and interim risk management.

  14. Special Diabetes Program for Indians: Retention in Cardiovascular Risk Reduction

    PubMed Central

    Manson, Spero M.; Jiang, Luohua; Zhang, Lijing; Beals, Janette; Acton, Kelly J.; Roubideaux, Yvette

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined the associations between participant and site characteristics and retention in a multisite cardiovascular disease risk reduction project. Design and Methods: Data were derived from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Healthy Heart Demonstration Project, an intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk among American Indians and Alaska Natives with diabetes. In 2006, a total of 1,072 participants from 30 participating sites completed baseline questionnaires measuring demographics and sociobehavioral factors. They also underwent a medical examination at baseline and were reassessed annually after baseline. A Provider Annual Questionnaire was administered to staff members of each grantee site at the end of each year to assess site characteristics. Generalized estimating equation models were used to evaluate the relationships between participant and site characteristics and retention 1 year after baseline. Results: Among enrolled participants, 792 (74%) completed their first annual assessment. Participants who completed the first annual assessment tended to be older and had, at baseline, higher body mass index and higher level of physical activity. Site characteristics associated with retention included average age of staff, proportion of female staff members, and percentage of staff members having completed graduate or professional school. Implications: Understanding successful retention must reach beyond individual characteristics of participants to include features of the settings that house the interventions. PMID:21565816

  15. Global recycling services for short and long term risk reduction

    SciTech Connect

    Arslan, M.; Grygiel, J.M.; Drevon, C.; Lelievre, F.; Lesage, M.; Vincent, O.

    2013-07-01

    New schemes are being developed by AREVA in order to provide global solutions for safe and non-proliferating management of used fuels, thereby significantly contributing to overall risks reduction and sustainable nuclear development. Utilities are thereby provided with a service through which they will be able to send their used fuels and only get returned vitrified and compacted waste, the only waste remaining after reprocessing. This waste is stable, standard and has demonstrated capability for very long term interim storage. They are provided as well with associated facilities and all necessary services for storage in a demonstrated safely manner. Recycled fuels, in particular MOX, would be used either in existing LWRs or in a very limited number of full MOX reactors (like the EPR reactor), located in selected countries, that will recycle MOX so as to downgrade the isotopic quality of the Pu inventories in a significant manner. Reprocessed uranium also can be recycled. These schemes, on top of offering demonstrated operational advantages and a responsible approach, result into optimized economics for all shareholders of the scheme, as part of reactor financing (under Opex or Capex form) will be secured thanks to the value of the recycled flows. It also increases fuel cost predictability as recycled fuel is not subject to market fluctuations as much and allows, in a limited span of time, for clear risk mitigation. (authors)

  16. Capability for Integrated Systems Risk-Reduction Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mindock, J.; Lumpkins, S.; Shelhamer, M.

    2016-01-01

    NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) is working to increase the likelihoods of human health and performance success during long-duration missions, and subsequent crew long-term health. To achieve these goals, there is a need to develop an integrated understanding of how the complex human physiological-socio-technical mission system behaves in spaceflight. This understanding will allow HRP to provide cross-disciplinary spaceflight countermeasures while minimizing resources such as mass, power, and volume. This understanding will also allow development of tools to assess the state of and enhance the resilience of individual crewmembers, teams, and the integrated mission system. We will discuss a set of risk-reduction questions that has been identified to guide the systems approach necessary to meet these needs. In addition, a framework of factors influencing human health and performance in space, called the Contributing Factor Map (CFM), is being applied as the backbone for incorporating information addressing these questions from sources throughout HRP. Using the common language of the CFM, information from sources such as the Human System Risk Board summaries, Integrated Research Plan, and HRP-funded publications has been combined and visualized in ways that allow insight into cross-disciplinary interconnections in a systematic, standardized fashion. We will show examples of these visualizations. We will also discuss applications of the resulting analysis capability that can inform science portfolio decisions, such as areas in which cross-disciplinary solicitations or countermeasure development will potentially be fruitful.

  17. ASTARTE: Assessment Strategy and Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baptista, M. A.; Yalciner, A. C.; Canals, M.

    2014-12-01

    enhancement of the Tsunami Warning System in the NEAM region in terms of monitoring, early warning and forecast, governance and resilience. This work is funded by project ASTARTE - Assessment, STrategy And Risk Reduction for Tsunamis in Europe. Grant 603839, 7th FP (ENV.2013.6.4-3 ENV.2013.6.4-3)

  18. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Balch

    2003-10-15

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This ninth of ten semi-annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the March 2003 through September 2003 period was directed toward Silurian-Devonian geology, development of rules for the fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  19. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Balch

    2003-04-15

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The pool of experts is much reduced today. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This fourth of five annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the April 2002 through March 2003 period was directed toward Silurian-Devonian geology, development of rules for the fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  20. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    Robert Balch

    2004-04-08

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds, and possibly decreasing dependence on foreign oil and lower product prices for consumers. This fifth annual (and tenth of 12 semi-annual reports) contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the March 2003 through March 2004 period was directed toward completion of the Brushy Canyon FEE Tool and to Silurian-Devonian geology, and development of rules for the Devonian fuzzy system, and on-line software.

  1. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    William W. Weiss

    2001-09-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. As a result, today's pool of experts is much reduced. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. This fifth of ten semi-annual reports contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next year, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. The emphasis during the May 2001 through September 2001 was directed toward development of rules for the fuzzy system.

  2. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Volume 6, Part 2: Appendices

    SciTech Connect

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L.; Mubayi, V.

    1995-05-01

    The objectives are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed. Volume 1 summarizes the results of the study. The scope of the level-1 study includes plant damage state analyses, and uncertainty analysis. The internal event analysis is documented in Volume 2. The internal fire and internal flood analysis are documented in Volumes 3 and 4, respectively. A separate study on seismic analysis, documented in Volume 5, was performed for the NRC by Future Resources Associated, Inc. A phased approach was used in the level 2/3 PRA program, however both phases addressed the risk from only mid-loop operation. The first phase of the level 2/3 PRA was initiated in late 1991 and consisted of an Abridged Risk Study. This study was completed in May 1992 and was focused on accident progression and consequences, conditional on core damage. Phase 2 is a more detailed study in which an evaluation of risk during mid-loop operation was performed. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6. This report, Volume 6, Part 2, consists of five appendices containing supporting information for: the PDS (plant damage state) analysis; the accident progression analysis; the source term analysis; the consequence analysis; and the Melcor analysis. 73 figs., 21 tabs.

  3. Relationships among trust in messages, risk perception, and risk reduction preferences based upon avian influenza in Taiwan.

    PubMed

    Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

    2012-08-01

    Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers' risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

  4. Relationships among Trust in Messages, Risk Perception, and Risk Reduction Preferences Based upon Avian Influenza in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Fang, David; Fang, Chen-Ling; Tsai, Bi-Kun; Lan, Li-Chi; Hsu, Wen-Shan

    2012-01-01

    Improvements in communications technology enable consumers to receive information through diverse channels. In the case of avian influenza, information repeated by the mass media socially amplifies the consumer awareness of risks. Facing indeterminate risks, consumers may feel anxious and increase their risk perception. When consumers trust the information published by the media, their uncertainty toward avian influenza may decrease. Consumers might take some actions to reduce risk. Therefore, this study focuses on relationships among trust in messages, risk perception and risk reduction preferences. This study administered 525 random samples and consumer survey questionnaires in different city of Taiwan in 2007. Through statistical analysis, the results demonstrate: (1) the higher the trust consumers have in messages about avian influenza, the lower their risk perceptions are; (2) the higher the consumers’ risk perceptions are and, therefore, the higher their desired level of risk reductive, the more likely they are to accept risk reduction strategies; (3) consumer attributes such as age, education level, and marital status correlate with significant differences in risk perception and risk reduction preferences acceptance. Gender has significant differences only in risk reduction preferences and not in risk perception. PMID:23066394

  5. Assessing Major Accident Risks to Support Land-Use Planning Using a Severity-Vulnerability Combination Method: A Case Study in Dagushan Peninsula, China.

    PubMed

    Ma, Shuming; Zhang, Shushen; Yu, Chen; Zheng, Hongbo; Song, Guobao; Semakula, Henry Musoke; Chai, Yingying

    2015-08-01

    Major accident risks posed by chemical hazards have raised major social concerns in today's China. Land-use planning has been adopted by many countries as one of the essential elements for accident prevention. This article aims at proposing a method to assess major accident risks to support land-use planning in the vicinity of chemical installations. This method is based on the definition of risk by the Accidental Risk Assessment Methodology for IndustrieS (ARAMIS) project and it is an expansion application of severity and vulnerability assessment tools. The severity and vulnerability indexes from the ARAMIS methodology are employed to assess both the severity and vulnerability levels, respectively. A risk matrix is devised to support risk ranking and compatibility checking. The method consists of four main steps and is presented in geographical information-system-based maps. As an illustration, the proposed method is applied in Dagushan Peninsula, China. The case study indicated that the method could not only aid risk regulations on existing land-use planning, but also support future land-use planning by offering alternatives or influencing the plans at the development stage, and thus further enhance the roles and influence of land-use planning in the accident prevention activities in China.

  6. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part VIII: Risk, Risk Reduction, Risk Management, and Capacity Building.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Loretti, Alessandro; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P

    2016-06-01

    There is a cascade of risks associated with a hazard evolving into a disaster that consists of the risk that: (1) a hazard will produce an event; (2) an event will cause structural damage; (3) structural damage will create functional damages and needs; (4) needs will create an emergency (require use of the local response capacity); and (5) the needs will overwhelm the local response capacity and result in a disaster (ie, the need for outside assistance). Each step along the continuum/cascade can be characterized by its probability of occurrence and the probability of possible consequences of its occurrence, and each risk is dependent upon the preceding occurrence in the progression from a hazard to a disaster. Risk-reduction measures are interventions (actions) that can be implemented to: (1) decrease the risk that a hazard will manifest as an event; (2) decrease the amounts of structural and functional damages that will result from the event; and/or (3) increase the ability to cope with the damage and respond to the needs that result from an event. Capacity building increases the level of resilience by augmenting the absorbing and/or buffering and/or response capacities of a community-at-risk. Risks for some hazards vary by the context in which they exist and by the Societal System(s) involved. Birnbaum ML , Loretti A , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part VIII: risk, risk reduction, risk management, and capacity building. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):300-308. PMID:27025980

  7. Global flood risk modelling and its applications for disaster risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jongman, Brenden; Winsemius, Hessel; Bierkens, Marc; Bouwman, Arno; van Beek, Rens; Ligtvoet, Willem; Ward, Philip

    2014-05-01

    Flooding of river systems is the most costly natural hazard affecting societies around the world, with an average of 55 billion in direct losses and 4,500 fatalities each year between 1990 and 2012. The accurate and consistent assessment of flood risk on a global scale is essential for international development organizations and the reinsurance industry, and for enhancing our understanding of climate change impacts. This need is especially felt in developing countries, where local data and models are largely unavailable, and where flood risk is increasing rapidly under strong population growth and economic development. Here we present ongoing applications of high-resolution flood risk modelling at a global scale. The work is based on GLOFRIS, a modelling chain that produces flood risk maps at a 1km spatial resolution for the entire globe, under a range of climate and socioeconomic scenarios and various past and future time periods. This modelling chain combines a hydrological inundation model with socioeconomic datasets to assess past, current and future population exposure; economic damages; and agricultural risk. These tools are currently applied scientifically to gain insights in geographical patterns in current risk, and to assess the effects of possible future scenarios under climate change and climate variability. In this presentation we show recent applications from global scale to national scales. The global scale applications include global risk profiling for the reinsurance industry; and novel estimation of global flood mortality risk. In addition it will be demonstrated how the global flood modelling approach was successfully applied to assess disaster risk reduction priorities on a national scale in Africa. Finally, we indicate how these global modelling tools can be used to quantify the costs and benefits of adaptation, and explore pathways for development under a changing environment.

  8. The impact of major transformations of a production process on age-related accident risks: a study of an iron-ore mine.

    PubMed

    Blank, V L; Laflamme, L; Diderichsen, F

    1996-09-01

    This paper describes a study of whether accident risks were equally distributed across age categories among a population of mining workers whose work activities were suspected to be age-impaired. The impairment factors in focus are the transformation of production technology during the 80s and consequent changes in job content. It was hypothesized that the combined effect of these factors might lead accident risks, both non-specific (aggregated) and specific (by kind), to increase with age. Accident risk ratios (ARRs), however, proved to be higher for younger workers than older ones, in both the non-specific and the specific cases. However, two accident patterns (specific risks) also show relatively high ARRs among workers in their 40s (and even 30s), results that might be explained by particular exposures and/or age-related performance problems. The findings suggest that technological changes designed to increase productivity and reduce staffing levels more rapidly affect efficiency and productivity than they do accident occurrence, and that they penalize young workers in the first instance. PMID:8899044

  9. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Maggiò, F.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.

    2008-07-01

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  10. A procedure for seismic risk reduction in Campania Region

    SciTech Connect

    Zuccaro, G.; Palmieri, M.; Cicalese, S.; Grassi, V.; Rauci, M.; Maggio, F.

    2008-07-08

    The Campania Region has set and performed a peculiar procedure in the field of seismic risk reduction. Great attention has been paid to public strategic buildings such as town halls, civil protection buildings and schools. The Ordinance 3274 promulgate in the 2004 by the Italian central authority obliged the owners of strategic buildings to perform seismic analyses within 2008 in order to check the safety of the structures and the adequacy to the use. In the procedure the Campania region, instead of the local authorities, ensure the complete drafting of seismic checks through financial resources of the Italian Government. A regional scientific technical committee has been constituted, composed of scientific experts, academics in seismic engineering. The committee has drawn up guidelines for the processing of seismic analyses. At the same time, the Region has issued a public competition to select technical seismic engineering experts to appoint seismic analysis in accordance with guidelines. The scientific committee has the option of requiring additional documents and studies in order to approve the safety checks elaborated. The Committee is supported by a technical and administrative secretariat composed of a group of expert in seismic engineering. At the moment several seismic safety checks have been completed. The results will be presented in this paper. Moreover, the policy to mitigate the seismic risk, set by Campania region, was to spend the most of the financial resources available on structural strengthening of public strategic buildings rather than in safety checks. A first set of buildings of which the response under seismic action was already known by data and studies of vulnerability previously realised, were selected for immediate retrofitting designs. Secondly, an other set of buildings were identified for structural strengthening. These were selected by using the criteria specified in the Guide Line prepared by the Scientific Committee and based on

  11. Clinical relevance of nalmefene versus placebo in alcohol treatment: Reduction in mortality risk

    PubMed Central

    Roerecke, Michael; Sørensen, Per; Laramée, Philippe; Rahhali, Nora; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-01-01

    Reduction of long-term mortality risk, an important clinical outcome for people in alcohol dependence treatment, can rarely be established in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We calculated the reduction in all-cause mortality risk using data from short-term (6 and 12 months) double-blind RCTs comparing as-needed nalmefene treatment to placebo, and mortality risks from meta-analyses on all-cause-mortality risk by reduction of drinking in people with alcohol dependence. A reduction in drinking in the RCTs was defined by shifts in drinking risk levels established by the European Medicines Agency. Results showed that the reduction of drinking in the nalmefene group was associated with a reduction in mortality risk by 8% (95% CI: 2%, 13%) when compared to the placebo group. Sensitivity analyses confirmed a significant effect. Thus comparing the difference between nalmefene and placebo in reduction in drinking levels with results on all-cause mortality risk from meta-analyses indicated a clinically relevant reduction in mortality risk. Given the high mortality risk of people with alcohol dependence, abstinence or a reduction in drinking have been shown to reduce mortality risk and should be considered treatment goals. PMID:26349557

  12. Clinical relevance of nalmefene versus placebo in alcohol treatment: reduction in mortality risk.

    PubMed

    Roerecke, Michael; Sørensen, Per; Laramée, Philippe; Rahhali, Nora; Rehm, Jürgen

    2015-11-01

    Reduction of long-term mortality risk, an important clinical outcome for people in alcohol dependence treatment, can rarely be established in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We calculated the reduction in all-cause mortality risk using data from short-term (6 and 12 months) double-blind RCTs comparing as-needed nalmefene treatment to placebo, and mortality risks from meta-analyses on all-cause-mortality risk by reduction of drinking in people with alcohol dependence. A reduction in drinking in the RCTs was defined by shifts in drinking risk levels established by the European Medicines Agency. Results showed that the reduction of drinking in the nalmefene group was associated with a reduction in mortality risk by 8% (95% CI: 2%, 13%) when compared to the placebo group. Sensitivity analyses confirmed a significant effect. Thus comparing the difference between nalmefene and placebo in reduction in drinking levels with results on all-cause mortality risk from meta-analyses indicated a clinically relevant reduction in mortality risk. Given the high mortality risk of people with alcohol dependence, abstinence or a reduction in drinking have been shown to reduce mortality risk and should be considered treatment goals.

  13. Occupational accidents aboard merchant ships

    PubMed Central

    Hansen, H; Nielsen, D; Frydenberg, M

    2002-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the frequency, circumstances, and causes of occupational accidents aboard merchant ships in international trade, and to identify risk factors for the occurrence of occupational accidents as well as dangerous working situations where possible preventive measures may be initiated. Methods: The study is a historical follow up on occupational accidents among crew aboard Danish merchant ships in the period 1993–7. Data were extracted from the Danish Maritime Authority and insurance data. Exact data on time at risk were available. Results: A total of 1993 accidents were identified during a total of 31 140 years at sea. Among these, 209 accidents resulted in permanent disability of 5% or more, and 27 were fatal. The mean risk of having an occupational accident was 6.4/100 years at sea and the risk of an accident causing a permanent disability of 5% or more was 0.67/100 years aboard. Relative risks for notified accidents and accidents causing permanent disability of 5% or more were calculated in a multivariate analysis including ship type, occupation, age, time on board, change of ship since last employment period, and nationality. Foreigners had a considerably lower recorded rate of accidents than Danish citizens. Age was a major risk factor for accidents causing permanent disability. Change of ship and the first period aboard a particular ship were identified as risk factors. Walking from one place to another aboard the ship caused serious accidents. The most serious accidents happened on deck. Conclusions: It was possible to clearly identify work situations and specific risk factors for accidents aboard merchant ships. Most accidents happened while performing daily routine duties. Preventive measures should focus on workplace instructions for all important functions aboard and also on the prevention of accidents caused by walking around aboard the ship. PMID:11850550

  14. A risk-reduction nutrition course for adults.

    PubMed

    Boeckner, L S; Kohn, H; Rockwell, S K

    1990-02-01

    This article details the development, delivery, and evaluation of a six-session nutrition course entitled "Eating Today for a Healthier Tomorrow." The course addressed nutrition practices associated with the reduction of risk for coronary heart disease, cancer, osteoporosis, and obesity. Teaching teams, consisting of an extension agent and a registered dietitian, were used in course delivery. A wide variety of printed and audiovisual teaching aids helped participants learn through discussion, goal setting, games, and food tasting. Evaluation components of the course included demographic and pre- and post-course food frequency information as well as an overall evaluation by each participant. Post-course evaluation data were collected at a reunion session held 2 months after course completion. One hundred forty-two of 195 participants (73%) completed the course and the evaluation. Three-fourths of the participants had a family history of at least one of the life-style diseases addressed by the course. The food frequency results indicated that participants made some significant changes in their food practices. They decreased the number of times they selected high-fat cheese, regular red meats, foods from the saturated fatty acid group, desserts, sodium-rich products, and tea/coffee (p less than .05), and they increased selection of low-fat dairy products (p less than .05). Further study is recommended to determine whether individuals maintain the dietary changes and how those changes affect others in the person's immediate environment.

  15. The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie; Jones, Lucile

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey (CGS), the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  16. Time-to-Compromise Model for Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2005-09-01

    We propose a new model for estimating the time to compromise a system component that is visible to an attacker. The model provides an estimate of the expected value of the time-to-compromise as a function of known and visible vulnerabilities, and attacker skill level. The time-to-compromise random process model is a composite of three subprocesses associated with attacker actions aimed at the exploitation of vulnerabilities. In a case study, the model was used to aid in a risk reduction estimate between a baseline Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system and the baseline system enhanced through a specific set of control system security remedial actions. For our case study, the total number of system vulnerabilities was reduced by 86% but the dominant attack path was through a component where the number of vulnerabilities was reduced by only 42% and the time-to-compromise of that component was increased by only 13% to 30% depending on attacker skill level.

  17. Learning lessons from Natech accidents - the eNATECH accident database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krausmann, Elisabeth; Girgin, Serkan

    2016-04-01

    When natural hazards impact industrial facilities that house or process hazardous materials, fires, explosions and toxic releases can occur. This type of accident is commonly referred to as Natech accident. In order to prevent the recurrence of accidents or to better mitigate their consequences, lessons-learned type studies using available accident data are usually carried out. Through post-accident analysis, conclusions can be drawn on the most common damage and failure modes and hazmat release paths, particularly vulnerable storage and process equipment, and the hazardous materials most commonly involved in these types of accidents. These analyses also lend themselves to identifying technical and organisational risk-reduction measures that require improvement or are missing. Industrial accident databases are commonly used for retrieving sets of Natech accident case histories for further analysis. These databases contain accident data from the open literature, government authorities or in-company sources. The quality of reported information is not uniform and exhibits different levels of detail and accuracy. This is due to the difficulty of finding qualified information sources, especially in situations where accident reporting by the industry or by authorities is not compulsory, e.g. when spill quantities are below the reporting threshold. Data collection has then to rely on voluntary record keeping often by non-experts. The level of detail is particularly non-uniform for Natech accident data depending on whether the consequences of the Natech event were major or minor, and whether comprehensive information was available for reporting. In addition to the reporting bias towards high-consequence events, industrial accident databases frequently lack information on the severity of the triggering natural hazard, as well as on failure modes that led to the hazmat release. This makes it difficult to reconstruct the dynamics of the accident and renders the development of

  18. Risk management study for the Hanford Site facilities: Risk reduction cost comparison for the retired Hanford Site facilities. Volume 4

    SciTech Connect

    Coles, G.A.; Egge, R.G.; Senger, E.; Shultz, M.W.; Taylor, W.E.

    1994-02-01

    This document provides a cost-comparison evaluation for implementing certain risk-reduction measures and their effect on the overall risk of the 100 and 200 Area retired, surplus facilities. The evaluation is based on conditions that existed at the time the risk evaluation team performed facility investigations, and does not acknowledge risk-reduction measures that occurred soon after risk identification. This evaluation is one part of an overall risk management study for these facilities. The retired facilities investigated for this evaluation are located in the 100 and 200 Areas of the 1450-km{sup 2} Hanford Site. The Hanford Site is a semiarid tract of land in southeastern Washington State. The nearest population center is Richland, Washington, (population 32,000) 30 km southeast of the 200 Area. This cost-comparison evaluation (1) determines relative costs for reducing risk to acceptable levels; (2) compares the cost of reducing risk using different risk-reduction options; and (3) compares the cost of reducing risks at different facilities. The result is an identification of the cost effective risk-reduction measures. Supporting information required to develop costs of the various risk-reduction options also is included.

  19. Residence place as a risk factor in different types of fatal car accidents.

    PubMed

    Leveau, Carlos M; Vacchino, Marta N

    2015-01-01

    The association between place of residence, population density, relief and type of event (collision or non-collision of the vehicle) has not been evaluated in developing countries. The main objective of this study is to determine the differential factors associated with the occurrence of deaths of collision and non-collision automobile users in Patagonia, Argentina. A multiple logistic regression analysis was performed using as the dependent variable death by car accident (collision or non-collision of the vehicle) and sex, age, place of residence of the victim, relief and population density as the independent variables. Collision fatalities were related to areas of high population density, while non-collision fatalities were related to areas of low population density, mountainous landscape and place of residence of the victims outside the Patagonian region. The results obtained in this study indicate the need to develop differential primary prevention policies by place of residence of car occupants, focusing on Patagonia non-resident drivers and by emphasising non-collision accidents.

  20. Manual accidents, biological risk control, and quality indicators at a children’s hospital in north-east Italy

    PubMed Central

    Parco, Sergio; Vascotto, Fulvia; Simeone, Roberto; Visconti, Patrizia

    2015-01-01

    Background Working in health care carries the risk of transmission of infected blood to patients by hospital workers and to other health personnel in the form of occupational infections. Conscientious application of the standard precautions is the main method used to avoid needle stick injuries, contamination of skin and mucous membranes, cuts with sharp tools, and inadequate disposal and recapping of needles. The aim of this work was to investigate in Friuli Venezia Giulia, a region in north-east Italy, the enhancement carried out to prevent situations of biologic risk for health care workers, and to verify the related laboratory analyses. Methods Biological accidents occurring during the years 2012–2013 in the departments of oncology and pediatric-obstetric surgery, and in the intensive care unit at Burlo Garofolo Children’s Hospital in Trieste (a large town in Friuli Venezia Giulia) were reviewed, and a new panel of tests was introduced for patients and health care workers, to also detect human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), hepatitis B virus (HBV), and aspartate transaminase and immunoglobulin G. All tests were submitted for external quality assessment. Results In total, 230 nosocomial events were reported by health care workers in the above-mentioned hospital departments in 2012–2013. There were 158 accidents in 2012, including 55 accidental needle stick injuries (34.81%), 59 blood splashes (37.34%), and 44 cuts with infected instruments (27.84%). The risk of sustaining a cut was related to movement error during surgery when the appropriate procedure was not followed or when devices were being assembled and passed between doctors and nurses. Most accidents happened among physicians compared to nurses; the high percentage of needle stick injuries (34.81%) versus nurses (25.94%) were due to incorrect recapping of needles after use. No cases of health care workers being infected with HCV, HBV, or HIV were identified. In 2013, the

  1. Accident involvement among learner drivers--an analysis of the consequences of supervised practice.

    PubMed

    Gregersen, Nils Petter; Nyberg, Anders; Berg, Hans-Yngve

    2003-09-01

    It is a well-known fact that experience is important for safe driving. Previously, this presented a problem since experience was mostly gained during the most dangerous period of driving-the first years with a licence. In many countries, this "experience paradox" has been addressed by providing increased opportunities to gain experience through supervised practice. One question, however, which still needs to be answered is what has been lost and what has been gained through supervised practice. Does this method lead to fewer accidents after licensing and/or has the number of accidents in driving practice increased? There were three aims in the study. The first was to calculate the size of the accident problem in terms of the number of accidents, health risk and accident risk during practising. The second aim was to evaluate the solution of the "experience paradox" that supervised practice suggests by calculating the costs in terms of accidents during driving practice and the benefits in terms of reduced accident involvement after obtaining a licence. The third aim was to analyse conflict types that occur during driving practice. National register data on licence holders and police-reported injury accidents and self-reported exposure were used. The results show that during the period 1994-2000, 444 driving practice injury accidents were registered, compared to 13657 accidents during the first 2 years with a licence. The health risk during the period after licensing was 33 times higher and the accident risk 10 times higher than the corresponding risk during practice. The cost-benefit analysis showed that the benefits in terms of accident reduction after licensing were 30 times higher than the costs in terms of driving practice accidents. It is recommended that measures to reduce such accidents should focus on better education of the lay instructor, but not on introducing measures to reduce the amount of lay-instructed practice. PMID:12850073

  2. LISA Technology Development and Risk Reduction at NASA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stebbins, Robin T.

    2010-01-01

    The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a joint ESA-NASA project to design, build and operate a space-based gravitational wave detector based on a laser interferometer. LISA relies on several technologies that are either new to spaceflight or must perform at levels not previously demonstrated in a spaceflight environment. The ESA-led LISA Pathfinder mission is the main effort to demonstrate LISA technology. NASA also supports complementary ground-based technology development and risk reduction activities. This presentation will report the status of NASA work on micronewton thrusters, the telescope, the optical pointing subsystem and mission formulation. More details on some of these topics will be given in posters. Other talks and posters will describe NASA-supported work on the laser subsystem, the phasemeter, and aspects of the interferometry. Two flight-qualified clusters of four colloid micronewton thrusters, each capable of thrust Levels between 5 and 30 microNewton with a resolution less than 0.l microNewton and a thrust noise less than 0.1 microNewton/vHz (0.001 to 4 Hz), have been integrated onto the LISA Pathfinder spacecraft. The complementary ground-based development focuses on lifetime demonstration. Laboratory verification of failure models and accelerated life tests are just getting started. LISA needs a 40 cm diameter, afocal telescope for beam expansion/reduction that maintains an optical pathlength stability of approximately 1 pm/vHz in an extremely stable thermal environment. A mechanical prototype of a silicon carbide primary-secondary structure has been fabricated for stability testing. Two optical assemblies must point at different distant spacecraft with nanoradian accuracy over approximately 1 degree annual variation in the angle between the distant spacecraft. A candidate piezo-inchworm actuator is being tested in a suitable testbed. In addition to technology development, NASA has carried out several studies in support of the

  3. Anatomy of an Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mobley, Michael

    1984-01-01

    The findings of industrial safety engineers in the areas of accident causation and prevention are wholly applicable to adventure programs. Adventure education instructors can use safety engineering concepts to assess the risk in a particular activity, understand factors that cause accidents, and intervene to minimize injuries and damages if…

  4. Guidelines for contingency planning NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) ADP security risk reduction decision studies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tompkins, F. G.

    1984-01-01

    Guidance is presented to NASA Computer Security Officials for determining the acceptability or unacceptability of ADP security risks based on the technical, operational and economic feasibility of potential safeguards. The risk management process is reviewed as a specialized application of the systems approach to problem solving and information systems analysis and design. Reporting the results of the risk reduction analysis to management is considered. Report formats for the risk reduction study are provided.

  5. Space Launch System NASA Research Announcement Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crumbly, Christopher M.; Craig, Kellie D.

    2011-01-01

    The intent of the Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) effort is to: (1) Reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS (2) Enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Key Concepts (1) Offerors must propose an Advanced Booster concept that meets SLS Program requirements (2) Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction must relate to the Offeror s Advanced Booster concept (3) NASA Research Announcement (NRA) will not be prescriptive in defining Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction

  6. Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) Project: Dissemination of Weather Information for the Reduction of Aviation Weather-Related Accident Causal Factors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jarrell, Michael; Tanger, Thomas

    2004-01-01

    Weather Information Communications (WINCOMM) is part of the Weather Accident Prevention (WxAP) Project, which is part of the NASA's Aviation Safety and Security Program. The goals of WINCOMM are to facilitate the exchange of tactical and strategic weather information between air and ground. This viewgraph presentation provides information on data link decision factors, architectures, validation goals. WINCOMM is capable of providing en-route communication air-to-ground, ground-to-air, and air-to-air, even on international or intercontinental flights. The presentation also includes information on the capacity, cost, and development of data links.

  7. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Surry, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risk during mid-loop operations. Main report. Volume 6. Part 1

    SciTech Connect

    Jo, J.; Lin, C.C.; Neymotin, L.

    1995-05-01

    During 1989, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) initiated an extensive program to carefully examine the potential risks during low power and shutdown operations. The program includes two parallel projects being performed by Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). Two plants, Surry (pressurized water reactor) and Grand Gulf (boiling water reactor), were selected as the plants to be studied. The objectives of the program are to assess the risks of severe accidents initiated during plant operational states other than full power operation and to compare the estimated core damage frequencies, important accident sequences and other qualitative and quantitative results with those accidents initiated during full power operation as assessed in NUREG-1150. The scope of the program includes that of a level-3 PRA. A phased approach was used in the level-1 program. In phase 1 which was completed in Fall 1991, a coarse screening analysis including internal fire and flood was performed for all plant operational states (POSs). The objective of the phase 1 study was to identify potential vulnerable plant configurations, to characterize (on a high, medium, or low basis) the potential core damage accident scenarios, and to provide a foundation for a detailed phase 2 analysis. In phase 2, mid-loop operation was selected as the plant configuration to be analyzed based on the results of the phase 1 study. The objective of the phase 2 study is to perform a detailed analysis of the potential accident scenarios that may occur during mid-loop operation, and compare the results with those of NUREG-1150. The results of the phase 2 level 2/3 study are the subject of this volume of NUREG/CR-6144, Volume 6.

  8. Advances in volcano monitoring and risk reduction in Latin America

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCausland, W. A.; White, R. A.; Lockhart, A. B.; Marso, J. N.; Assitance Program, V. D.; Volcano Observatories, L. A.

    2014-12-01

    We describe results of cooperative work that advanced volcanic monitoring and risk reduction. The USGS-USAID Volcano Disaster Assistance Program (VDAP) was initiated in 1986 after disastrous lahars during the 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz dramatizedthe need to advance international capabilities in volcanic monitoring, eruption forecasting and hazard communication. For the past 28 years, VDAP has worked with our partners to improve observatories, strengthen monitoring networks, and train observatory personnel. We highlight a few of the many accomplishments by Latin American volcano observatories. Advances in monitoring, assessment and communication, and lessons learned from the lahars of the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz eruption and the 1994 Paez earthquake enabled the Servicio Geológico Colombiano to issue timely, life-saving warnings for 3 large syn-eruptive lahars at Nevado del Huila in 2007 and 2008. In Chile, the 2008 eruption of Chaitén prompted SERNAGEOMIN to complete a national volcanic vulnerability assessment that led to a major increase in volcano monitoring. Throughout Latin America improved seismic networks now telemeter data to observatories where the decades-long background rates and types of seismicity have been characterized at over 50 volcanoes. Standardization of the Earthworm data acquisition system has enabled data sharing across international boundaries, of paramount importance during both regional tectonic earthquakes and during volcanic crises when vulnerabilities cross international borders. Sharing of seismic forecasting methods led to the formation of the international organization of Latin American Volcano Seismologists (LAVAS). LAVAS courses and other VDAP training sessions have led to international sharing of methods to forecast eruptions through recognition of precursors and to reduce vulnerabilities from all volcano hazards (flows, falls, surges, gas) through hazard assessment, mapping and modeling. Satellite remote sensing data

  9. Distribution and risk assessment of radionuclides released by Fukushima nuclear accident at the northwest Pacific.

    PubMed

    Yu, Wen; He, Jianhua; Lin, Wuhui; Li, Yiliang; Men, Wu; Wang, Fenfen; Huang, Jiang

    2015-04-01

    In order to understand the impact of Fukushima Nuclear Accident (FNA) on the marine environment, seawater and a composite squid (Ommastrephe bartrami) sample were collected on the monitoring cruise XT01 during June 16-July 4, 2011. The concentration levels of Cesium-134, Cesium-137, Strontium-90, Silver-110 m, Cobalt-58 and Cobalt-60 were measured both for the seawater and squid samples. The elevated activity levels of Cesium-134 and Cesium-137 were found in the sampling area. Cesium-134 and Silver-110 m, which were usually undetectable before FNA, were also found in the squid sample, with the activity levels of 1.65 ± 0.13 Bq/kg-wet and 0.07 ± 0.01 Bq/kg-wet, respectively. The radiological assessment result showed that the radioactive release from the FNA would not have a significant adverse effect on marine biota at the population level.

  10. Perception of Radiation Risk by Japanese Radiation Specialists Evaluated as a Safe Dose Before the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Miura, Miwa; Ono, Koji; Yamauchi, Motohiro; Matsuda, Naoki

    2016-06-01

    From October to December 2010, just before the radiological accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 71 radiation professionals from radiation facilities in Japan were asked what they considered as a "safe dose" of radiation for themselves, their partners, parents, children, siblings, and friends. Although the 'safe dose' they noted varied widely, from less than 1 mSv y to more than 100 mSv y, the average dose was 35.6 mSv y, which is around the middle point between the legal exposure dose limits for the annual average and for any single year. Similar results were obtained from other surveys of members of the Japan Radioisotope Association (36.9 mSv y) and of the Oita Prefectural Hospital (36.8 mSv y). Among family members and friends, the minimum average "safe" dose was 8.5 mSv y for children, for whom 50% of the responders claimed a "safe dose" of less than 1 mSv. Gender, age and specialty of the radiation professional also affected their notion of a "safe dose." These findings suggest that the perception of radiation risk varies widely even for radiation professionals and that the legal exposure dose limits derived from regulatory science may act as an anchor of safety. The different levels of risk perception for different target groups among radiation professionals appear similar to those in the general population. The gap between these characteristics of radiation professionals and the generally accepted picture of radiation professionals might have played a role in the state of confusion after the radiological accident.

  11. Perception of Radiation Risk by Japanese Radiation Specialists Evaluated as a Safe Dose Before the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.

    PubMed

    Miura, Miwa; Ono, Koji; Yamauchi, Motohiro; Matsuda, Naoki

    2016-06-01

    From October to December 2010, just before the radiological accident at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, 71 radiation professionals from radiation facilities in Japan were asked what they considered as a "safe dose" of radiation for themselves, their partners, parents, children, siblings, and friends. Although the 'safe dose' they noted varied widely, from less than 1 mSv y to more than 100 mSv y, the average dose was 35.6 mSv y, which is around the middle point between the legal exposure dose limits for the annual average and for any single year. Similar results were obtained from other surveys of members of the Japan Radioisotope Association (36.9 mSv y) and of the Oita Prefectural Hospital (36.8 mSv y). Among family members and friends, the minimum average "safe" dose was 8.5 mSv y for children, for whom 50% of the responders claimed a "safe dose" of less than 1 mSv. Gender, age and specialty of the radiation professional also affected their notion of a "safe dose." These findings suggest that the perception of radiation risk varies widely even for radiation professionals and that the legal exposure dose limits derived from regulatory science may act as an anchor of safety. The different levels of risk perception for different target groups among radiation professionals appear similar to those in the general population. The gap between these characteristics of radiation professionals and the generally accepted picture of radiation professionals might have played a role in the state of confusion after the radiological accident. PMID:27115222

  12. Cost-effectiveness analysis of risk-reduction measures to reach water safety targets.

    PubMed

    Lindhe, Andreas; Rosén, Lars; Norberg, Tommy; Bergstedt, Olof; Pettersson, Thomas J R

    2011-01-01

    Identifying the most suitable risk-reduction measures in drinking water systems requires a thorough analysis of possible alternatives. In addition to the effects on the risk level, also the economic aspects of the risk-reduction alternatives are commonly considered important. Drinking water supplies are complex systems and to avoid sub-optimisation of risk-reduction measures, the entire system from source to tap needs to be considered. There is a lack of methods for quantification of water supply risk reduction in an economic context for entire drinking water systems. The aim of this paper is to present a novel approach for risk assessment in combination with economic analysis to evaluate risk-reduction measures based on a source-to-tap approach. The approach combines a probabilistic and dynamic fault tree method with cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). The developed approach comprises the following main parts: (1) quantification of risk reduction of alternatives using a probabilistic fault tree model of the entire system; (2) combination of the modelling results with CEA; and (3) evaluation of the alternatives with respect to the risk reduction, the probability of not reaching water safety targets and the cost-effectiveness. The fault tree method and CEA enable comparison of risk-reduction measures in the same quantitative unit and consider costs and uncertainties. The approach provides a structured and thorough analysis of risk-reduction measures that facilitates transparency and long-term planning of drinking water systems in order to avoid sub-optimisation of available resources for risk reduction.

  13. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  14. Spatio-temporal patterns of hazards and their use in risk assessment and mitigation. Case study of road accidents in Romania

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Catalin Stanga, Iulian

    2013-04-01

    the spatial or temporal clustering of crash accidents. Since the 1990's, Geographical Informational Systems (GIS) became a very important tool for traffic and road safety management, allowing not only the spatial and multifactorial analysis, but also graphical and non-graphical outputs. The current paper presents an accessible GIS methodology to study the spatio-temporal pattern of injury related road accidents, to identify the high density accidents zones, to make a cluster analysis, to create multicriterial typologies, to identify spatial and temporal similarities and to explain them. In this purpose, a Geographical Information System was created, allowing a complex analysis that involves not only the events, but also a large set of interrelated and spatially linked attributes. The GIS includes the accidents as georeferenced point elements with a spatially linked attribute database: identification information (date, location details); accident type; main, secondary and aggravating causes; data about driver; vehicle information; consequences (damages, injured peoples and fatalities). Each attribute has its own number code that allows both the statistical analysis and the spatial interrogation. The database includes those road accidents that led to physical injuries and loss of human lives between 2007 and 2012 and the spatial analysis was realized using TNTmips 7.3 software facilities. Data aggregation and processing allowed creating the spatial pattern of injury related road accidents through Kernel density estimation at three different levels (national - Romania; county level - Iasi County; local level - Iasi town). Spider graphs were used to create the temporal pattern or road accidents at three levels (daily, weekly and monthly) directly related to their causes. Moreover the spatial and temporal database relates the natural hazards (glazed frost, fog, and blizzard) with the human made ones, giving the opportunity to evaluate the nature of uncertainties in risk

  15. Reduction in Sexual Risk Behaviors among College Students Following a Comprehensive Health Education Intervention.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turner, James C.; And Others

    1993-01-01

    Researchers studied college students' sexual behavior and the association of a comprehensive health education program with subsequent sexual risk behavior modifications. Pre- and postintervention surveys indicated the intervention created short-term reduction in sexual risk behaviors, but the reduction varied according to gender. (SM)

  16. Modifiable Prostate Cancer Risk Reduction and Early Detection Behaviors in Black Men

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Odedina, Folakemi T.; Scrivens, John J., Jr.; Larose-Pierre, Margareth; Emanuel, Frank; Adams, Angela Denise; Dagne, Getachew A.; Pressey, Shannon Alexis; Odedina, Oladapo

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To explore the personal factors related to modifiable prostate cancer risk-reduction and detection behaviors among black men. Methods: Three thousand four hundred thirty (3430) black men were surveyed and structural equation modeling employed to test study hypotheses. Results: Modifiable prostate cancer risk-reduction behavior was found…

  17. Safety Is No Accident.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Christiansen, Monty L.

    1985-01-01

    Liability suits involving accidents in park and recreation areas are expensive and intangible costs are incalculable. Risk management practices related to park planning, personnel, and administrative practices are discussed. (MT)

  18. Risk factors for failed closed reduction of pediatric supracondylar humerus fractures.

    PubMed

    Beck, John D; Riehl, John T; Moore, Blake E; Deegan, John H; Sartorius, Jennifer; Graham, John; Mirenda, William M

    2012-10-01

    The purpose of this retrospective study was to examine pediatric supracondylar humerus fractures at a Level I trauma center. Data were analyzed to identify risk factors associated with closed reduction failure. Closed pediatric supracondylar humerus fractures that were treated at the authors' trauma center between October 1997 and January 2009 were reviewed. The main outcome variable was necessity of open reduction. To determine which factors were independently associated with a failed closed reduction, a multivariate logistic model was fit predicting open reduction status.A total of 174 patients required operative treatment. Of these, 23 underwent open reduction and 151 underwent with closed reduction and percutaneous pinning. For patients who required open reduction, 39.1% had an associated injury compared with 14.6% of patients treated with closed reduction (P=.008). Average time from presentation to surgery was 4.1 hours in the open reduction and 6.3 hours in the closed reduction group (P=.049). Risk factors that significantly predicted failure of closed reduction were the presence of an associated injury, initial fracture displacement, and Gartland type III fracture (P=.008, .03, and .023, respectively).Associated injury, large initial fracture displacement, and Gartland type III factures were statistically significant independent risk factors for closed reduction failure. Increased time from injury to presentation demonstrated a trend toward open reduction. Consideration should be given to the expedient transfer of patients with type III supracondylar humerus fractures with associated injuries when definitive care will be provided at another institution. PMID:23027486

  19. Termination of light-water reactor core-melt accidents with a chemical core catcher: the core-melt source reduction system (COMSORS)

    SciTech Connect

    Forsberg, C.W.; Parker, G.W.; Rudolph, J.C.; Osborne-Lee, I.W.; Kenton, M.A.

    1996-09-01

    The Core-Melt Source Reduction System (COMSORS) is a new approach to terminate light-water reactor core melt accidents and ensure containment integrity. A special dissolution glass is placed under the reactor vessel. If core debris is released onto the glass, the glass melts and the debris dissolves into the molten glass, thus creating a homogeneous molten glass. The molten glass, with dissolved core debris, spreads into a wide pool, distributing the heat for removal by radiation to the reactor cavity above or by transfer to water on top of the molten glass. Expected equilibrium glass temperatures are approximately 600 degrees C. The creation of a low-temperature, homogeneous molten glass with known geometry permits cooling of the glass without threatening containment integrity. This report describes the technology, initial experiments to measure key glass properties, and modeling of COMSORS operations.

  20. [The change in efficiency of protective measures for reduction of 137Cs accumulation by agricultural plants in various periods after the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Panov, A V; Aleksakhin, R M; Muzalevskaia, A A

    2011-01-01

    Dynamics of 137Cs transfer factors to plants and the effects of protective measures on this radionuclide accumulation in the agricultural production is estimated on the example of the south-western regions of Bryansk District. Three periods in decreasing the 137Cs content in plants during 20 years after the Chernobyl accident are identified. The contribution of radionuclide decay, natural biogeochemical processes and protective measures aimed at reduction of the 137Cs accumulation in agricultural plants during various periods after radioactive fallout is shown. Maximum permissible levels of 137Cs contamination of cultivated lands, where crop products meeting current standards may be obtained, at different scopes of protective measures on radioactive-contaminated territories are forecasted. Periods after radioactive fallout, when crop and forage products meeting radiological standards are obtained, are assessed. PMID:21520624

  1. [The change in efficiency of protective measures for reduction of 137Cs accumulation by agricultural plants in various periods after the Chernobyl accident].

    PubMed

    Panov, A V; Aleksakhin, R M; Muzalevskaia, A A

    2011-01-01

    Dynamics of 137Cs transfer factors to plants and the effects of protective measures on this radionuclide accumulation in the agricultural production is estimated on the example of the south-western regions of Bryansk District. Three periods in decreasing the 137Cs content in plants during 20 years after the Chernobyl accident are identified. The contribution of radionuclide decay, natural biogeochemical processes and protective measures aimed at reduction of the 137Cs accumulation in agricultural plants during various periods after radioactive fallout is shown. Maximum permissible levels of 137Cs contamination of cultivated lands, where crop products meeting current standards may be obtained, at different scopes of protective measures on radioactive-contaminated territories are forecasted. Periods after radioactive fallout, when crop and forage products meeting radiological standards are obtained, are assessed.

  2. ST Day 2000: Risk Reduction for the Next Generations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2000-01-01

    The goal of in-space transportation technology is to achieve within 15 years a factor of ten reduction in the cost of Earth orbital transportation and a factor of two to three reduction in propulsion system mass and travel time required for planetary missions and within 25 years to enable bold new missions to the edge of the solar system and beyond by reducing travel times by one to two orders of magnitude.

  3. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    William W. Weiss

    2001-05-17

    Incomplete or sparse information on types of data such as geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. ''Expert'' systems developed and used in several disciplines and industries have demonstrated beneficial results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized database and computer maps generated by neural networks, is being developed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. Oil prospecting risk can be reduced with the use of a properly developed and validated ''Fuzzy Expert Exploration (FEE) Tool.'' This FEE Tool can be beneficial in many regions of the U.S. by enabling risk reduction in oil and gas prospecting as well as decreased prospecting and development costs. In the 1998-1999 oil industry environment, many smaller exploration companies lacked the resources of a pool of expert exploration personnel. Downsizing, low oil prices, and scarcity of exploration funds have also affected larger companies, and will, with time, affect the end users of oil industry products in the U.S. as reserves are depleted. The FEE Tool will benefit a diverse group in the U.S., leading to a more efficient use of scarce funds and lower product prices for consumers. This second annual report contains a summary of progress to date, problems encountered, plans for the next quarter, and an assessment of the prospects for future progress. During the second year of the project, data acquisition of the Brushy Canyon Formation was completed with the compiling and analyzing of well logs, geophysical data, and production information needed to characterize production potential in the Delaware Basin. A majority of this data now resides in several online databases on our servers and is in proper form to be accessed by external programs such as Web applications. A new concept was developed and tested in well log

  4. A school-based intervention for diabetes risk reduction

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We examined the effects of a multicomponent, school-based program, addressing risk factors for diabetes among children whose race, or ethnic group and socioeconomic status placed them at high risk for obesity and type 2 diabetes. Using a cluster design, we randomly assigned 42 schools to either a mu...

  5. Generating tsunami risk knowledge at community level as a base for planning and implementation of risk reduction strategies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wegscheider, S.; Post, J.; Zosseder, K.; Mück, M.; Strunz, G.; Riedlinger, T.; Muhari, A.; Anwar, H. Z.

    2011-02-01

    More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunami-prone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences. The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk. Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

  6. Risk Reduction and Training using Simulation Based Tools - 12180

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, Irin P.

    2012-07-01

    Process Modeling and Simulation (M and S) has been used for many years in manufacturing and similar domains, as part of an industrial engineer's tool box. Traditionally, however, this technique has been employed in small, isolated projects where models were created from scratch, often making it time and cost prohibitive. Newport News Shipbuilding (NNS) has recognized the value of this predictive technique and what it offers in terms of risk reduction, cost avoidance and on-schedule performance of highly complex work. To facilitate implementation, NNS has been maturing a process and the software to rapidly deploy and reuse M and S based decision support tools in a variety of environments. Some examples of successful applications by NNS of this technique in the nuclear domain are a reactor refueling simulation based tool, a fuel handling facility simulation based tool and a tool for dynamic radiation exposure tracking. The next generation of M and S applications include expanding simulation based tools into immersive and interactive training. The applications discussed here take a tool box approach to creating simulation based decision support tools for maximum utility and return on investment. This approach involves creating a collection of simulation tools that can be used individually or integrated together for a larger application. The refueling simulation integrates with the fuel handling facility simulation to understand every aspect and dependency of the fuel handling evolutions. This approach translates nicely to other complex domains where real system experimentation is not feasible, such as nuclear fuel lifecycle and waste management. Similar concepts can also be applied to different types of simulation techniques. For example, a process simulation of liquid waste operations may be useful to streamline and plan operations, while a chemical model of the liquid waste composition is an important tool for making decisions with respect to waste disposition

  7. [New perspectives in cardiovascular risk reduction: focus on HDL].

    PubMed

    Paolillo, Stefania; Della Ratta, Giuseppe Luca; Vitagliano, Alice; Cirillo, Annapaola; Lardino, Elisabetta; Formisano, Tiziana; Fabiani, Irma; Pellegrino, Angela Maria; Riello, Pietro; Filardi, Pasquale Perrone

    2013-03-01

    Cardiovascular diseases represent the leading cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, mostly contributing to hospitalizations and health care costs. Dyslipidemias represent one of the major cardiovascular risk factor and its management, throughout life-style modifications and pharmacological interventions, has shown to reduce cardiac events. The risk of adverse cardiovascular events is related not only to elevated LDL blood levels, but also to decreased HDL concentrations, that exhibit protective effects in the development of atherosclerotic process. Aim of this review is to summarize current evidences about defensing effects of such lipoproteins and to show the most recent pharmacological strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk through the increase of their circulating levels. PMID:23923587

  8. African American Adolescent Females: Mother-Involved HIV Risk-Reduction Intervention

    PubMed Central

    Dancy, Barbara L.; Hsieh, Yu-Li; Crittenden, Kathleen S.; Kennedy, Arlisha; Spencer, Bernel; Ashford, Daniell

    2009-01-01

    African American adolescent females continue to be at disproportionate high risk for HIV infection. A repeated measures quasi-experimental comparison group design compared an HIV risk-reduction intervention delivered by mothers with an HIV risk-reduction intervention delivered by health professionals and with a health promotion intervention delivered by mothers. The three interventions were randomly assigned to one of three geographical distinct sites. A convenience sample of 553 low-income African American adolescent girls with a baseline age of 11 to 14 years participated in the study. The results revealed that over a 6-month period, compared to girls in the health promotion intervention, the girls in the HIV risk-reduction interventions had significant higher scores on HIV transmission knowledge, condom attitudes, and self-efficacy to use condoms. The implication is mothers who receive appropriate training may be able to deliver HIV risk reduction to their daughters as well as health professionals. PMID:20090855

  9. Integrating Health Into Disaster Risk Reduction Strategies: Key Considerations for Success

    PubMed Central

    Dar, Osman; Rokadiya, Sakib; Huda, Qudsia; Abrahams, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    The human and financial costs of disasters are vast. In 2011, disasters were estimated to have cost $378 billion worldwide; disasters have affected 64% of the world’s population since 1992. Consequently, disaster risk reduction strategies have become increasingly prominent on national and international policy agendas. However, the function of health in disaster risk reduction strategies often has been restricted to emergency response. To mitigate the effect of disasters on social and health development goals (such as risk reduction Millennium Development Goals) and increase resilience among at-risk populations, disaster strategies should assign the health sector a more all-encompassing, proactive role. We discuss proposed methods and concepts for mainstreaming health in disaster risk reduction and consider barriers faced by the health sector in this field. PMID:25122022

  10. Integrating health into disaster risk reduction strategies: key considerations for success.

    PubMed

    Dar, Osman; Buckley, Emmeline J; Rokadiya, Sakib; Huda, Qudsia; Abrahams, Jonathan

    2014-10-01

    The human and financial costs of disasters are vast. In 2011, disasters were estimated to have cost $378 billion worldwide; disasters have affected 64% of the world's population since 1992. Consequently, disaster risk reduction strategies have become increasingly prominent on national and international policy agendas. However, the function of health in disaster risk reduction strategies often has been restricted to emergency response. To mitigate the effect of disasters on social and health development goals (such as risk reduction Millennium Development Goals) and increase resilience among at-risk populations, disaster strategies should assign the health sector a more all-encompassing, proactive role. We discuss proposed methods and concepts for mainstreaming health in disaster risk reduction and consider barriers faced by the health sector in this field.

  11. Integrating health into disaster risk reduction strategies: key considerations for success.

    PubMed

    Dar, Osman; Buckley, Emmeline J; Rokadiya, Sakib; Huda, Qudsia; Abrahams, Jonathan

    2014-10-01

    The human and financial costs of disasters are vast. In 2011, disasters were estimated to have cost $378 billion worldwide; disasters have affected 64% of the world's population since 1992. Consequently, disaster risk reduction strategies have become increasingly prominent on national and international policy agendas. However, the function of health in disaster risk reduction strategies often has been restricted to emergency response. To mitigate the effect of disasters on social and health development goals (such as risk reduction Millennium Development Goals) and increase resilience among at-risk populations, disaster strategies should assign the health sector a more all-encompassing, proactive role. We discuss proposed methods and concepts for mainstreaming health in disaster risk reduction and consider barriers faced by the health sector in this field. PMID:25122022

  12. [Significance of changes in habits followed by risk reduction].

    PubMed

    Völler, H

    2006-01-01

    Cardiovascular risk is substantially influenced by changes in habits. In this context the INTERHEART study showed that a healthy vitamin-packed nutrition and regular workout reduced the cardiovascular risk up to 79%. In this case people older than 50 years would benefit most from change. Patients suffering from obesity should combine a low-calory diet with physical training in order to reduce weight. Here optimal results can be achieved by considering intensity as well as quantity for each patient.

  13. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident. PMID:22951483

  14. The Fukushima radiation accident: consequences for radiation accident medical management.

    PubMed

    Meineke, Viktor; Dörr, Harald

    2012-08-01

    The March 2011 radiation accident in Fukushima, Japan, is a textbook example of a radiation accident of global significance. In view of the global dimensions of the accident, it is important to consider the lessons learned. In this context, emphasis must be placed on consequences for planning appropriate medical management for radiation accidents including, for example, estimates of necessary human and material resources. The specific characteristics of the radiation accident in Fukushima are thematically divided into five groups: the exceptional environmental influences on the Fukushima radiation accident, particular circumstances of the accident, differences in risk perception, changed psychosocial factors in the age of the Internet and globalization, and the ignorance of the effects of ionizing radiation both among the general public and health care professionals. Conclusions like the need for reviewing international communication, interfacing, and interface definitions will be drawn from the Fukushima radiation accident.

  15. Estimates of radiation dose and health risks to the United States population following the Chernobyl nuclear plant accident.

    PubMed

    Broadway, J A; Smith, J M; Norwood, D L; Porter, C R

    1988-09-01

    Estimates of both individual and collective doses received by the United States population following the Chernobyl accident have been made by using the data obtained from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Radiation Ambient Monitoring System. Radionuclides associated with the debris first were measured in precipitation and surface air particulates at Portland, OR and Olympia, WA on 5 May 1986. Iodine-131 was the most consistently measured nuclide in all media, although several Cs and Ru isotopes also were observed. Strontium and any actinides notably were absent from the samples at the lower level of detection. The highest calculated individual-organ dose due to intake during May and June 1986 was 0.52 mSv to the infant thyroid in the state of Washington. This was predominantly (98%) from the ingestion of milk. The maximum U.S. collective dose equivalent to any organ was calculated to be 3,300 person-Sv to the thyroid. Risk estimates project three excess lung cancer deaths and an additional four deaths due to cancers of thyroid, breast and leukemia in the U.S. population over the next 45 y from exposure during the May-June 1986 interval. The only long-lived radionuclide measured in milk samples following the accident was 137Cs. We estimate 20 excess fatalities from the ingestion of 137Cs in milk during all subsequent years, with six of these due to lung cancer and the majority of the remainder distributed approximately equally among cancers of the thyroid, breast, liver and leukemia. A total of 100 excess fatalities from all dietary components was estimated. Because of the uncertainty of risk estimates from data such as those available for this study, all calculated values carry a range of uncertainty from a minimum of one-half the calculated value to a maximum of two times the calculated value. The estimated excess fatalities given above may be compared with corresponding projected cancer mortality from all other causes: 41,000 fatalities

  16. COMPARING SAFE VS. AT-RISK BEHAVIORAL DATA TO PREDICT ACCIDENTS

    SciTech Connect

    Jeffrey C. Joe

    2001-11-01

    The Safety Observations Achieve Results (SOAR) program at the Idaho National Laboratory (INL) encourages employees to perform in-field observations of each other’s behaviors. One purpose for performing these observations is that it gives the observers the opportunity to correct, if needed, their co-worker’s at-risk work practices and habits (i.e., behaviors). The underlying premise of doing this is that major injuries (e.g., OSHA-recordable events) are prevented from occurring because the lower level at-risk behaviors are identified and corrected before they can propagate into culturally accepted unsafe behaviors that result in injuries or fatalities. However, unlike other observation programs, SOAR also emphasizes positive reinforcement for safe behaviors observed. The underlying premise of doing this is that positive reinforcement of safe behaviors helps establish a strong positive safety culture. Since the SOAR program collects both safe and at-risk leading indicator data, this provides a unique opportunity to assess and compare the two kinds of data in terms of their ability to predict future adverse safety events. This paper describes the results of analyses performed on SOAR data to assess their relative predictive ability. Implications are discussed.

  17. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  18. Using Numerical Models in the Development of Software Tools for Risk Management of Accidents with Oil and Inert Spills

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fernandes, R.; Leitão, P. C.; Braunschweig, F.; Lourenço, F.; Galvão, P.; Neves, R.

    2012-04-01

    The increasing ship traffic and maritime transport of dangerous substances make it more difficult to significantly reduce the environmental, economic and social risks posed by potential spills, although the security rules are becoming more restrictive (ships with double hull, etc.) and the surveillance systems are becoming more developed (VTS, AIS). In fact, the problematic associated to spills is and will always be a main topic: spill events are continuously happening, most of them unknown for the general public because of their small scale impact, but with some of them (in a much smaller number) becoming authentic media phenomena in this information era, due to their large dimensions and environmental and social-economic impacts on ecosystems and local communities, and also due to some spectacular or shocking pictures generated. Hence, the adverse consequences posed by these type of accidents, increase the preoccupation of avoiding them in the future, or minimize their impacts, using not only surveillance and monitoring tools, but also increasing the capacity to predict the fate and behaviour of bodies, objects, or substances in the following hours after the accident - numerical models can have now a leading role in operational oceanography applied to safety and pollution response in the ocean because of their predictive potential. Search and rescue operation, oil, inert (ship debris, or floating containers), and HNS (hazardous and noxious substances) spills risk analysis are the main areas where models can be used. Model applications have been widely used in emergency or planning issues associated to pollution risks, and contingency and mitigation measures. Before a spill, in the planning stage, modelling simulations are used in environmental impact studies, or risk maps, using historical data, reference situations, and typical scenarios. After a spill, the use of fast and simple modelling applications allow to understand the fate and behaviour of the spilt

  19. A SCOPING STUDY: Development of Probabilistic Risk Assessment Models for Reactivity Insertion Accidents During Shutdown In U.S. Commercial Light Water Reactors

    SciTech Connect

    S. Khericha

    2011-06-01

    This report documents the scoping study of developing generic simplified fuel damage risk models for quantitative analysis from inadvertent reactivity insertion events during shutdown (SD) in light water pressurized and boiling water reactors. In the past, nuclear fuel reactivity accidents have been analyzed both mainly deterministically and probabilistically for at-power and SD operations of nuclear power plants (NPPs). Since then, many NPPs had power up-rates and longer refueling intervals, which resulted in fuel configurations that may potentially respond differently (in an undesirable way) to reactivity accidents. Also, as shown in a recent event, several inadvertent operator actions caused potential nuclear fuel reactivity insertion accident during SD operations. The set inadvertent operator actions are likely to be plant- and operation-state specific and could lead to accident sequences. This study is an outcome of the concern which arose after the inadvertent withdrawal of control rods at Dresden Unit 3 in 2008 due to operator actions in the plant inadvertently three control rods were withdrawn from the reactor without knowledge of the main control room operator. The purpose of this Standardized Plant Analysis Risk (SPAR) Model development project is to develop simplified SPAR Models that can be used by staff analysts to perform risk analyses of operating events and/or conditions occurring during SD operation. These types of accident scenarios are dominated by the operator actions, (e.g., misalignment of valves, failure to follow procedures and errors of commissions). Human error probabilities specific to this model were assessed using the methodology developed for SPAR model human error evaluations. The event trees, fault trees, basic event data and data sources for the model are provided in the report. The end state is defined as the reactor becomes critical. The scoping study includes a brief literature search/review of historical events, developments of

  20. Somatic symptoms in women 11 years after the Chornobyl accident: prevalence and risk factors.

    PubMed

    Bromet, Evelyn J; Gluzman, Semyon; Schwartz, Joseph E; Goldgaber, Dmitry

    2002-08-01

    Exposure to the Chornobyl nuclear power plant explosion resulted in widespread, persistent somatic complaints, but little is known about the nature and risk factors for these conditions. This study compares the health reports of 300 women evacuated to Kyiv from the contamination zone around the plant and 300 controls with a child in the same homeroom as the evacuees in 1997. The interview addressed somatic concerns, risk factors for poor health, and Chornobyl-related stress. Compared with controls, evacuees reported significantly more health problems and rated their health more poorly overall. These differences remained significant after controlling for demographic and clinical risk factors, including the tendency to amplify physical symptoms. Significantly more evacuees received a diagnosis of a Chornobyl-related illness by a local physician, believed that their health and their children's health had been adversely affected, and were positive for Chornobyl-induced post-traumatic stress disorder. After controlling for these Chornobyl stress variables, the differences in number of health problems commonly attributed to Chornobyl remained significant but differences in general health ratings did not. The perceptions of controls were similar to those of women in a national sample. The relationship between Chornobyl stress and illness was twice as strong in evacuees (odds ratio = 6.95) as in Kyiv controls (odds ratio = 3.34) and weakest in the national sample (odds ratio = 1.64). The results confirm the persistence and nonspecificity of the subjective medical consequences of Chornobyl and are consistent with the hypothesis that traumatic events exert their greatest negative impacts on health in vulnerable or disadvantaged groups.

  1. Bioastronautics Roadmap: A Risk Reduction Strategy for Human Space Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    2005-01-01

    The Bioastronautics Critical Path Roadmap is the framework used to identify and assess the risks to crews exposed to the hazardous environments of space. It guides the implementation of research strategies to prevent or reduce those risks. Although the BCPR identifies steps that must be taken to reduce the risks to health and performance that are associated with human space flight, the BCPR is not a "critical path" analysis in the strict engineering sense. The BCPR will evolve to accommodate new information and technology development and will enable NASA to conduct a formal critical path analysis in the future. As a management tool, the BCPR provides information for making informed decisions about research priorities and resource allocation. The outcome-driven nature of the BCPR makes it amenable for assessing the focus, progress and success of the Bioastronautics research and technology program. The BCPR is also a tool for communicating program priorities and progress to the research community and NASA management.

  2. Evaluating the risk-reduction benefits of wind energy

    SciTech Connect

    Brower, M.C.; Bell, K.; Spinney, P.

    1997-05-01

    The question of uncertainty and risk in electric utility resource planning has received considerable attention in recent years. During the 1980s, many utilities suffered financial losses because of unexpectedly high plant construction costs and low growth in electricity demand. In addition, the introduction of competition to the electric industry is creating new risks for power companies. No longer will utilities be able to count on regulatory protections and a base of captive consumers to provide a stable market and adequate return on their investments. Alternative risk management strategies will have to be considered instead. One approach to managing risk is for a utility company to invest in diverse power sources such as wind power plants. Since wind plants consume no fuel, can be built in relatively small increments with short construction lead times, and generate no pollutants, it is often said that they offer significant protection from risks associated with conventional fossil-fuel power plants. So far there have been few efforts to quantify these benefits, however. The study compares the costs and risks of two competing resource options, a gas-fired combined cycle plant and a wind plant, both utility-owned, through decision analysis. The case study utility is Texas Utilities Electric, a very large investor-owned company serving an area with substantial, high-quality wind resources. The authors chose a specific moment in the future - the year 2003 - when the utility currently plans to build a large fossil-fueled power plant, and examined the implications for the utility`s expected revenues, costs, and profits if a wind plant were to be built instead.

  3. Cooperative measures to support the Indo-Pak Agreement Reducing Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons.

    SciTech Connect

    Mishra, Sitakanta; Ahmed, Mansoor

    2014-04-01

    In 2012, India and Pakistan reaffirmed the Agreement on Reducing the Risk from Accidents Relating to Nuclear Weapons. Despite a history of mutual animosity and persistent conflict between the two countries, this agreement derives strength from a few successful nuclear confidence building measures that have stood the test of time. It also rests on the hope that the region would be spared a nuclear holocaust from an accidental nuclear weapon detonation that might be misconstrued as a deliberate use of a weapon by the other side. This study brings together two emerging strategic analysts from South Asia to explore measures to support the Agreement and further develop cooperation around this critical issue. This study briefly dwells upon the strategic landscape of nuclear South Asia with the respective nuclear force management structures, doctrines, and postures of India and Pakistan. It outlines the measures in place for the physical protection and safety of nuclear warheads, nuclear materials, and command and control mechanisms in the two countries, and it goes on to identify the prominent, emerging challenges posed by the introduction of new weapon technologies and modernization of the respective strategic forces. This is followed by an analysis of the agreement itself leading up to a proposed framework for cooperative measures that might enhance the spirit and implementation of the agreement.

  4. Low-cost risk reduction strategy for small workplaces: how can we spread good practices?

    PubMed

    Kogi, K

    2006-01-01

    Recent advances in health risk reduction approaches are examined based on inter-country networking experiences. A noteworthy progress is the wider application of low-cost improvements to risk reduction particularly in small enterprises and agriculture in both industrially developing and developed countries. This is helped by the readiness of managers and workers to implement these improvements despite many constraints. Typical improvements include mobile racks, simple workstation changes, screening hazards, better welfare facilities and teamwork arrangements. In view of the complex circumstances of work-related health risks, it is important to know whether a low-cost strategy can advance risk reduction practices effectively and what support measures are necessary. It is confirmed that the strategy can overcome related constraints through its advantages. Main advantages lie in (a) the facilitation of improved practices in multiple technical areas, (b) the strengthening of realistic stepwise risk reduction, and (c) the enhanced multiplier effects through training of local trainers. Action-oriented risk assessment tools, such as action checklists and low-cost improvement guides, can encourage risk-reducing measures adjusted to each local situation. It is suggested to spread the low-cost risk reduction strategy for improving small workplaces in diversified settings with the support of these locally tailored tools.

  5. HIV-Risk Reduction with Juvenile Offenders on Probation

    PubMed Central

    Donenberg, Geri R.; Emerson, Erin; Mackesy-Amiti, Mary Ellen; Udell, Wadiya

    2014-01-01

    Youth involved in the juvenile justice system are at elevated risk for HIV as a result of high rates of sexual risk taking, substance use, mental health problems and sexually transmitted infections. Yet few HIV prevention programs exist for young offenders. This pilot study examined change in juvenile offenders’ sexual activity, drug/alcohol use, HIV testing and counseling, and theoretical mediators of risk taking following participation in PHAT Life, an HIV-prevention program for teens on probation. Participants (N=54) were 13–17 year-old arrested males and females remanded to a detention alternative setting. Youth participated in a uniquely tailored HIV prevention intervention and completed a baseline and 3-month follow up assessment of their HIV and substance use knowledge, attitudes, beliefs, and behaviors. At 3-month follow up, teens reported less alcohol use, more positive attitudes toward peers with HIV, greater ability to resist temptation to use substances, and for males, improved HIV prevention self-efficacy and peer norms supporting prevention. Teens were also more likely to seek HIV counseling and males were more likely to get tested for HIV. Effect sizes revealed moderate change in sexual behavior. Findings support PHAT Life as a promising intervention to reduce HIV-risk among youth in juvenile justice. PMID:26097376

  6. Risk Reduction with a Fuzzy Expert Exploration Tool

    SciTech Connect

    Weiss, William W.; Broadhead, Ron; Sung, Andrew

    2000-10-24

    This project developed an Artificial Intelligence system that drew up on a wide variety of information in providing realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods derived usable conclusions, were demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications.

  7. Dietary lignans: physiology and potential for cardiovascular disease risk reduction

    PubMed Central

    Peterson, Julia; Dwyer, Johanna; Adlercreutz, Herman; Scalbert, Augustin; Jacques, Paul; McCullough, Marjorie L

    2010-01-01

    We reviewed lignan physiology and lignan intervention and epidemiological studies to determine if they decreased the risks of cardiovascular disease in Western populations. Five intervention studies using flaxseed lignan supplements indicated beneficial associations with C-reactive protein and a meta-analysis, which included these studies, also suggested a lowering effect on plasma total and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Three intervention studies using sesamin supplements indicated possible lipid and blood pressure lowering associations. Eleven human observational epidemiological studies examined dietary intakes of lignans in relation to cardiovascular disease risk. Five showed decreased risk with either increasing dietary intakes of lignans or increased levels of serum enterolactone (an enterolignan used as a biomarker of lignan intake), five studies were of borderline significance, and one was null. The associations between lignans and decreased risk of cardiovascular disease are promising, but are yet not well established, perhaps due to low lignan intakes in habitual Western diets. At the higher doses used in intervention studies, associations were more evident. PMID:20883417

  8. Osteoporosis: Implications for Risk Reduction in the College Setting.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leslie, Maryann; St. Pierre, Richard W.

    1999-01-01

    Examines risk factors for osteoporosis that are especially relevant to the college health setting, focusing on bone development, inadequate calcium and vitamin D intake, cigarette smoking and alcohol use, steroid use and high protein diets, and physical inactivity and excessive exercise. Also presents intervention strategies for college health…

  9. Cardiovascular Risk Reduction. The Problems Facing Our Society.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harrison, Donald C.; Winston, Mary

    1982-01-01

    Continued and expanded efforts to educate people as to what factors contribute to coronary heart disease will help to decrease its occurrence. Risk factors include: cholesterol, smoking, hypertension, obesity, heredity, psychological influences, and the taking of oral contraceptives or alcohol. (CJ)

  10. Training and verification process implementation for risk reduction on new missions at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Fragoso, R. S.; Bryant, L. W.

    2003-01-01

    The focus on improving and increasing planetary exploration with lower cost missions and the unfortunate incidents of the not so distant past point to a need for risk reduction without budget inflation.

  11. ACTINIC MASK INSPECTION AT THE ALS: RISK REDUCTION ACTIVITIES FOR 2003

    SciTech Connect

    Barty, A; Levesque, R; Ayers, J; Liu, Y; Gullikson, E; Barale, P

    2004-01-05

    This document reports on risk reduction activities performed at the VNL during CY2003 as a part of the Lith-343 actinic inspection project funded by International SEMATECH. The risk reduction activities described in this document comprise deliverable items 3.1.3, 3.1.4, 3.1.5 and 3.1.6 of Amendment 6 to the VNL EUV mask blank technology transfer contract.

  12. Brief Communication: Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction - success or warning sign for Paris?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mysiak, J.; Surminski, S.; Thieken, A.; Mechler, R.; Aerts, J.

    2015-06-01

    In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading to the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.

  13. Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction - success or warning sign for Paris?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mysiak, Jaroslav; Surminski, Swenja; Thieken, Annegret; Mechler, Reinhard; Aerts, Jeroen

    2016-09-01

    In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) was adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, 14-18 March 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR) and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change.

  14. Re-suspension of the radioactive fallout after the Fukushima accident: risk of internal dose during the first week and the first two months

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yamauchi, M.; Takeda, M.; Makino, M.; Owada, T.

    2012-04-01

    The nuclear accident at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant in March 2011 contaminated an area of more than 100 km in diameter by radioactive material with amount of about 10-20% of that by the Chernobyl accident. According to the Chernobyl experience, a part of fallout radionuclide is expected to be re-suspended by wind, causing possible risk of internal dose. However, this re-suspension process and its amounts have not been studied very much due to the difficulty of direct measurement of low-density dusts. To estimate forms and periods of the re-suspension of the radioactive fallout, we used both the radiation dose rate data and vertical (downward) component of the DC electric field near the ground, or potential gradient (PG) at Kakioka, 150 km away from the accident site. The data indicates: (1) During 14-15 March, the radioactive dust is most likely suspended in the air near the ground. (2) During 2-7 UT on 16 March, the radioactive dust is most likely blown up from the surface by the strong wind from the non-contaminated area. (3) During 16-20 March, the radioactive dust most likely stayed re-suspended. (4) After the wet contamination on 20 March until late April, the radioactive fallout on the ground are re-suspended during daytime by daily convection due to sunshine, and transported to downwind direction. (5) At more than 30 km distance from the accident site, the re-suspension most likely ceased by the end of April. However, no data is available within 20 km distance from the accident site. Yamauchi, et al. (2012): Settlement process of radioactive dust to the ground inferred from the atmospheric electric field measurement, Ann. Geophys., 30, 49-56, doi:10.5194/angeo-30-49-2012. Yamauchi (2012): Secondary wind transport of radioactive materials after the Fukushima accident, Earth Planet Space, accepted for publication.

  15. Quantitative Risk reduction estimation Tool For Control Systems, Suggested Approach and Research Needs

    SciTech Connect

    Miles McQueen; Wayne Boyer; Mark Flynn; Sam Alessi

    2006-03-01

    For the past year we have applied a variety of risk assessment technologies to evaluate the risk to critical infrastructure from cyber attacks on control systems. More recently, we identified the need for a stand alone control system risk reduction estimation tool to provide owners and operators of control systems with a more useable, reliable, and credible method for managing the risks from cyber attack. Risk is defined as the probability of a successful attack times the value of the resulting loss, typically measured in lives and dollars. Qualitative and ad hoc techniques for measuring risk do not provide sufficient support for cost benefit analyses associated with cyber security mitigation actions. To address the need for better quantitative risk reduction models we surveyed previous quantitative risk assessment research; evaluated currently available tools; developed new quantitative techniques [17] [18]; implemented a prototype analysis tool to demonstrate how such a tool might be used; used the prototype to test a variety of underlying risk calculational engines (e.g. attack tree, attack graph); and identified technical and research needs. We concluded that significant gaps still exist and difficult research problems remain for quantitatively assessing the risk to control system components and networks, but that a useable quantitative risk reduction estimation tool is not beyond reach.

  16. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%.

  17. Risks of Serious Injuries and Fatalities of Cyclists Associated with Impact Velocities of Cars in Car-Cyclist Accidents in Japan.

    PubMed

    Matsui, Yasuhiro; Oikawa, Shoko

    2015-11-01

    The main purpose of this study is to define the relationship between the car impact velocity and serious injury risk or fatality risk of cyclists. The authors investigated the risks of serious injuries and fatalities of cyclists using vehicle-cyclist accident data from the database of the Institute for Traffic Accident Research and Data Analysis (ITARDA) in Japan. The vehicle types considered are sedans, mini vans, box vans, light passenger cars and light cargo vans. The results revealed that a 10-km/h decrease in the impact velocity could reduce the severe injury risk and fatality risk for impact velocities of 40 km/h or higher. Specifically, when the impact velocity was less than or equal to 30 km/h, the serious injury risks were less than 21% and the fatality risks were less than or equal to 1% for the above listed vehicle types. Therefore, if the Collision Damage Mitigation Braking System (CDMBS) equipped vehicles can perform its functions effectively so as to reduce the impact velocities, then cyclist injuries will likely be significantly reduced. Another purpose of this study is to assess the effect of wearing a helmet for protection of the cyclist's head. Impact experiment results showed that the measured head injury criterion (HIC) with helmets are lower than that of head-form impactor without a helmet, reducing the HIC by 57%. PMID:26660752

  18. Evaluation of risk factor reduction in a European City Network.

    PubMed

    Farrington, Jill L; Faskunger, Johan; Mackiewicz, Karolina

    2015-06-01

    There is a substantial and growing burden of premature mortality caused by non-communicable diseases (NCDs) globally. This paper evaluates the preventive efforts of the WHO European Healthy Cities Network during its fifth phase (2009-13), specifically for four behavioural risk factors (tobacco use, alcohol abuse, unhealthy diet and physical inactivity). Drawing on case studies, questionnaire responses and other materials, it notes which cities were involved, what worked and did not, the triggers for action, challenges met and lessons learnt. Few cities appeared to have taken comprehensive approaches to NCD prevention across multiple risk factors, or have combined population- and individual-level interventions. Work on healthy food and diet predominantly focused on children in educational or care settings, and few cities appeared to take a comprehensive approach to tackling obesity. Partnerships were a strong feature for all the NCD risk factor work, and were frequently extensive, being most diverse for the Healthy Diet and Food work. There were strong examples of engagement with communities, also involved in co-designing and shaping projects. Equity also featured strongly and there were multiple examples of how attention had been paid to the social determinants of health. There was evidence that cities continue to be significant innovative forces within their countries and drivers of change, and the mutual dependency of the national and local levels was highlighted. Interventions to promote physical activity have shifted focus from specific events and projects to being more integrated with other policy areas and based on intersectoral collaboration. PMID:26069321

  19. Ensuring Disaster Risk Reduction via Sustainable Wetland Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lyon, S. W.; Lindborg, R.; Nyström, S.; Silengo, M.; Tumbo, M.; Koutsouris, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Wetland ecosystems around the world are increasingly being targeted as land use development 'hotspots' under growing concerns of climate variability and food security. Anthropogenic encroachment on natural wetland ecosystems can have direct consequences locally through loss of biodiversity and regionally through increased disaster risks associated with, for example, flooding. We consider two regionally-relevant wetland ecosystems in eastern Africa, namely Zambia's Lukanga Swamps and Tanzania's Kilombero Valley, experiencing varying trajectories of development under climatic variations. These regions have been targeted for inclusive, multi-stakeholder initiatives that aim at developing agricultural potential through combinations of large and small scale irrigation schemes. Through our data-driven analysis we highlight the potential for shifts in hydrologic regime of each wetland ecosystem which can have significant regional impacts on disaster risks. In the case of the Lukanga Swamps, wetlands maintain water table fluctuations that help mitigate water cycling with implications for the downstream flooding impact of annual rains. With regards to Kilombero Valley, understanding seasonal changes in hydrological processes and storages provides the cornerstone for managing future water resource impacts/feedbacks under different scenarios of land management. This work emphasizes the need to tailor strategies towards sustainable uses of wetlands that reduce disaster risks regionally while contributing to improved community health and wellbeing. It remains an open (and fundamental) question of how to best define management recommendations and activities that not only achieve climate resiliency but also are acceptable for stakeholders without compromising the balance between ecosystem service supply and biodiversity conservation.

  20. Farmers Prone to Drought Risk: Why Some Farmers Undertake Farm-Level Risk-Reduction Measures While Others Not?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  1. Farmers prone to drought risk: why some farmers undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures while others not?

    PubMed

    Gebrehiwot, Tagel; van der Veen, Anne

    2015-03-01

    This research investigates farmers' cognitive perceptions of risk and the behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. It has been observed that people who are susceptible to natural hazards often fail to act, or do very little, to protect their assets or lives. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, a socio-psychological model of precautionary adaptation based on protection motivation theory and trans-theoretical stage model has been applied for the first time to areas of drought risk in the developing countries cultural context. The applicability of the integrated model is explored by means of a representative sample survey of smallholder farmers in northern Ethiopia. The result of the study showed that there is a statistically significant association between farmer's behavioral intention to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures and the main important protection motivation model variables. High perceived vulnerability, severity of consequences, self-efficacy, and response efficacy lead to higher levels of behavioral intentions to undertake farm-level risk-reduction measures. For farmers in the action stage, self-efficacy and response efficacy were the main motivators of behavioral intention. For farmers in the contemplative stage, self-efficacy and cost appear to be the main motivators for them to act upon risk reduction, while perceived severity of consequences and cost of response actions were found to be important for farmers in the pre-contemplative stage.

  2. Reducing the risk of surgical site infections: does chlorhexidine gluconate provide a risk reduction benefit?

    PubMed

    Edmiston, Charles E; Bruden, Benjamin; Rucinski, Maria C; Henen, Cindy; Graham, Mary Beth; Lewis, Brian L

    2013-05-01

    Chlorhexidine gluconate (CHG) has been available as a topical antiseptic for over 50 years, having broad clinical application throughout the health care environment. Evidence-based clinical studies have shown chlorhexidine gluconate to be a safe and effective perioperative skin-prepping agent. Renewed interest has emerged for use of the antiseptic bath/shower to reduce the microbial skin burden prior to hospital admission. Recent clinical studies have documented that multiple applications of 2% or 4% CHG using a standardized protocol results in high skin surface concentrations sufficient to inhibit/kill skin colonizing flora, including methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. A new focus for the use of CHG in surgical patients involves irrigation of the wound prior to closure with 0.05% CHG followed by saline rinse. Recent laboratory studies suggest that, following a 1-minute exposure, 0.05% CHG produces a >5-log reduction against selective health care-associated pathogens and reduces microbial adherence to the surface of implantable biomedical devices. General, orthopedic, cardiothoracic, and obstetrical surgical studies have documented the safety of selective CHG formulations in elective surgical procedures. The following discussion will address both the evidence-based literature and preliminary findings suggesting that CHG has a broad and safe range of applications when used as an adjunctive interventional strategy for reducing the risk of postoperative surgical site infections (SSI). PMID:23622749

  3. [Reduction of nicotinic risk--is it possible?].

    PubMed

    Dubois, Gérard

    2004-11-15

    To decrease the health consequences of tabagism pandemic, quitting is still the only goal. The size of the problem leads to question if harm reduction is possible. Today, this concept, which was successful with illegal drugs, cannot be applied to tobacco because of a lack of proof. There is no safe cigarette and all brands have the same toxicity. Arguments in favor of smokeless tobacco are still insufficient for a public health decision. A voluntary decrease of tobacco consumption does not decrease morbidity and mortality of heavy smokers. A long-term use of nicotine replacement therapy is acceptable to reduce the daily smoking under medical supervision in smokers with chronic tobacco related disease who have previously failed in attempts to quit smoking. PMID:15655913

  4. Social Norms vs. Risk Reduction Approaches to 21st Birthday Celebrations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glassman, Tavis; Dodd, Virginia; Kenzik, Kelly; Miller, E. Maureen; Sheu, Jiunn-Jye

    2010-01-01

    Background: Celebratory drinking among college students on their 21st birthday often involves dangerous levels of alcohol consumption. Purpose: This study utilized an experimental design to assess the efficacy of social norm and risk reduction strategies developed to reduce high-risk drinking and alcohol related consequences among college students…

  5. 78 FR 28892 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-05-16

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY... to reduce the risk of fire hazard. These projects would affect approximately 998 acres of...

  6. Effectiveness of a Pharmacist-Led Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinic in Rural Perry County, Alabama

    PubMed Central

    Sands, Charles; Ford, Frances

    2016-01-01

    Background. The Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinic (CRRC) in Perry County, Alabama, provides free pharmacist-led services. Clinic goals include improving health outcomes and reducing cardiovascular risk factors. Objective. To investigate the effectiveness of the CRRC in rural Perry County, Alabama. The reduction of the modifiable cardiovascular risk factors, blood pressure and body mass index, was evaluated to measure a decrease from baseline to last clinic date. Methods. This retrospective chart review identified 130 patients with at least two blood pressure and BMI measurements from baseline to June 30, 2010. The patients' paper files were used to collect baseline data and most recent measurements, which were recorded on a data collection sheet. Results. There was a statistically significant reduction in systolic blood pressure of 4.08 mmHg, 3.25 mmHg reduction in diastolic blood pressure, and 0.42 kg/m2 reduction in mean BMI. At their last visit prior to June 30, 2010, 59% of hypertensive patients and 35% of diabetic patients were meeting their blood pressure goals. Conclusion. Pharmacist-led management of patients with cardiovascular risk factors significantly reduced blood pressure and allowed more patients to meet their hypertension treatment goals. Despite being modest, reductions in blood pressure and BMI help reduce overall cardiovascular risks. PMID:27525302

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment for the Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility worst-case design-basis accident

    SciTech Connect

    Sharirli, M.; Butner, J.M.; Rand, J.L.; Macek, R.J. ); McKinney, S.J. ); Roush, M.L. . Center for Reliability Engineering)

    1992-01-01

    This paper presents results from a Los Alamos National Laboratory Engineering and Safety Analysis Group assessment of the worse-case design-basis accident associated with the Clinton P. Anderson Meson Physics Facility (LAMPF)/Weapons Neutron Research (WNR) Facility. The primary goal of the analysis was to quantify the accident sequences that result in personnel radiation exposure in the WNR Experimental Hall following the worst-case design-basis accident, a complete spill of the LAMPF accelerator 1L beam. This study also provides information regarding the roles of hardware systems and operators in these sequences, and insights regarding the areas where improvements can increase facility-operation safety. Results also include confidence ranges to incorporate combined effects of uncertainties in probability estimates and importance measures to determine how variations in individual events affect the frequencies in accident sequences.

  8. Probabilistic risk assessment for the Los Alamos Meson Physics Facility worst-case design-basis accident

    SciTech Connect

    Sharirli, M.; Butner, J.M.; Rand, J.L.; Macek, R.J.; McKinney, S.J.; Roush, M.L.

    1992-12-01

    This paper presents results from a Los Alamos National Laboratory Engineering and Safety Analysis Group assessment of the worse-case design-basis accident associated with the Clinton P. Anderson Meson Physics Facility (LAMPF)/Weapons Neutron Research (WNR) Facility. The primary goal of the analysis was to quantify the accident sequences that result in personnel radiation exposure in the WNR Experimental Hall following the worst-case design-basis accident, a complete spill of the LAMPF accelerator 1L beam. This study also provides information regarding the roles of hardware systems and operators in these sequences, and insights regarding the areas where improvements can increase facility-operation safety. Results also include confidence ranges to incorporate combined effects of uncertainties in probability estimates and importance measures to determine how variations in individual events affect the frequencies in accident sequences.

  9. Research and Evaluations of the Health Aspects of Disasters, Part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework.

    PubMed

    Birnbaum, Marvin L; Daily, Elaine K; O'Rourke, Ann P; Loretti, Alessandro

    2016-06-01

    A disaster is a failure of resilience to an event. Mitigating the risks that a hazard will progress into a destructive event, or increasing the resilience of a society-at-risk, requires careful analysis, planning, and execution. The Disaster Logic Model (DLM) is used to define the value (effects, costs, and outcome(s)), impacts, and benefits of interventions directed at risk reduction. A Risk-Reduction Framework, based on the DLM, details the processes involved in hazard mitigation and/or capacity-building interventions to augment the resilience of a community or to decrease the risk that a secondary event will develop. This Framework provides the structure to systematically undertake and evaluate risk-reduction interventions. It applies to all interventions aimed at hazard mitigation and/or increasing the absorbing, buffering, or response capacities of a community-at-risk for a primary or secondary event that could result in a disaster. The Framework utilizes the structure provided by the DLM and consists of 14 steps: (1) hazards and risks identification; (2) historical perspectives and predictions; (3) selection of hazard(s) to address; (4) selection of appropriate indicators; (5) identification of current resilience standards and benchmarks; (6) assessment of the current resilience status; (7) identification of resilience needs; (8) strategic planning; (9) selection of an appropriate intervention; (10) operational planning; (11) implementation; (12) assessments of outputs; (13) synthesis; and (14) feedback. Each of these steps is a transformation process that is described in detail. Emphasis is placed on the role of Coordination and Control during planning, implementation of risk-reduction/capacity building interventions, and evaluation. Birnbaum ML , Daily EK , O'Rourke AP , Loretti A . Research and evaluations of the health aspects of disasters, part IX: Risk-Reduction Framework. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2016;31(3):309-325. PMID:27033777

  10. Risk reduction for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome among intravenous drug users.

    PubMed

    Des Jarlais, D C; Friedman, S R; Hopkins, W

    1985-11-01

    Intravenous drug users are the second largest risk group for the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and a bridge to two other groups: children and heterosexual partners. In the absence of effective treatment or vaccines, control of the epidemic among drug users will rely on efforts to reduce needle sharing. However, the traditional image of intravenous drug users leads one to expect little or no risk reduction. We review characteristics of AIDS as a disease that impede efforts at risk reduction among drug users and report on current risk reduction among intravenous drug users in New York City. There has been a sustained increase in the demand for new, unused needles, as shown in the emergence of "resealed" needles and in interviews with persons selling needles in illicit drug-purchasing areas.

  11. Development of a Pediatric Fall Risk And Injury Reduction Program.

    PubMed

    Kramlich, Debra L; Dende, Denise

    2016-01-01

    Fall prevention programs that include reliable, valid, and clinically tested screening tools have demonstrated more positive effects for adult and geriatric populations than those not including such assessment. In contrast, because falling is a natural part of growth and development for pediatric patients, progression toward effective prevention programs for this population has proven to be a challenge; a significant impediment is the lack of definition regarding what constitutes a reportable fall. This project explored pediatric health care providers' perceptions of patient falls in order to define a reportable pediatric fall and inform development of a prevention program. A concept analysis of defining attributes, antecedents, and consequences of pediatric falls from literature formed the basis for a set of questions; a convenience sample of 28 pediatric health care providers in an acute care hospital in New England participated in six moderated focus groups. Constant comparison method was used to code the qualitative data and develop themes. Participants unanimously agreed on several points; as expected, their years of experience in pediatric practice provided valuable insight. Three major themes emerged: patient characteristics, caregiver characteristics, and environmental characteristics. Based on factors identified by staff, a screening tool was adopted and integrated into the electronic medical record. Staff were actively engaged in developing definitions, selecting tools, and identifying next steps toward a comprehensive fall reduction program for their patients. As a result, they have embraced changes and advocated successfully for endorsement by the organization. PMID:27254976

  12. Development of a Pediatric Fall Risk And Injury Reduction Program.

    PubMed

    Kramlich, Debra L; Dende, Denise

    2016-01-01

    Fall prevention programs that include reliable, valid, and clinically tested screening tools have demonstrated more positive effects for adult and geriatric populations than those not including such assessment. In contrast, because falling is a natural part of growth and development for pediatric patients, progression toward effective prevention programs for this population has proven to be a challenge; a significant impediment is the lack of definition regarding what constitutes a reportable fall. This project explored pediatric health care providers' perceptions of patient falls in order to define a reportable pediatric fall and inform development of a prevention program. A concept analysis of defining attributes, antecedents, and consequences of pediatric falls from literature formed the basis for a set of questions; a convenience sample of 28 pediatric health care providers in an acute care hospital in New England participated in six moderated focus groups. Constant comparison method was used to code the qualitative data and develop themes. Participants unanimously agreed on several points; as expected, their years of experience in pediatric practice provided valuable insight. Three major themes emerged: patient characteristics, caregiver characteristics, and environmental characteristics. Based on factors identified by staff, a screening tool was adopted and integrated into the electronic medical record. Staff were actively engaged in developing definitions, selecting tools, and identifying next steps toward a comprehensive fall reduction program for their patients. As a result, they have embraced changes and advocated successfully for endorsement by the organization.

  13. Nuclear fuel cycle facility accident analysis handbook

    SciTech Connect

    Ayer, J E; Clark, A T; Loysen, P; Ballinger, M Y; Mishima, J; Owczarski, P C; Gregory, W S; Nichols, B D

    1988-05-01

    The Accident Analysis Handbook (AAH) covers four generic facilities: fuel manufacturing, fuel reprocessing, waste storage/solidification, and spent fuel storage; and six accident types: fire, explosion, tornado, criticality, spill, and equipment failure. These are the accident types considered to make major contributions to the radiological risk from accidents in nuclear fuel cycle facility operations. The AAH will enable the user to calculate source term releases from accident scenarios manually or by computer. A major feature of the AAH is development of accident sample problems to provide input to source term analysis methods and transport computer codes. Sample problems and illustrative examples for different accident types are included in the AAH.

  14. Reduction of livelihood risk for river bank erosion affected villagers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Majumder, S. Sen; Fox, D. M.; Chakrabari, S.; Bhandari, G.

    2014-12-01

    Bank erosion process of the Ganga River created a serious livelihood risk for the villagers situated on left bank of the river in Malda district of the State of West Bengal, India since last four decades. Due to the erosion of agriculture land by the river, most of the villagers having agriculture as their only means of livelihood became jobless suddenly. Presently they are living in a miserable condition. One of the main objectives of this paper is to find out an alternative means of livelihood for the victims to improve their miserable socio-economic condition. It has been found from field survey that some erosion affected villagers have started to live and practice agriculture temporarily on the riverine islands (large and stable since thirteen years) as these islands have very fertile soil. If the re-emerged land plots can again be demarcated on the newly formed islands and distributed among the landless people to practice agriculture over there, then it will be a useful alternative livelihood strategy for the victims. The demarcation of re-emerged plots can be achieved by georeferencing the cadastral maps and then overlaying the plots on the present river course. In the present study area geo-referencing process of the cadastral maps became a serious issue as the study area has been very dynamic in terms of land cover and land use. Most of the villages were lost into the river course. Thus the common permanent features, required for geo-referencing, shown in the cadastral maps (surveyed during 1954-1962) were not found in the present satellite images. The second important objective of the present study is to develop a proper methodology for geo-referencing the cadastral maps of this area. The Spatial Adjustment Transformation and Automatic Digitization tools of Arc GIS were used to prepare geo-referenced plot maps. In Projective Transformation method the geometrically corrected block maps having village boundaries were used as source file. Then the

  15. Social media in disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

    PubMed

    Alexander, David E

    2014-09-01

    This paper reviews the actual and potential use of social media in emergency, disaster and crisis situations. This is a field that has generated intense interest. It is characterised by a burgeoning but small and very recent literature. In the emergencies field, social media (blogs, messaging, sites such as Facebook, wikis and so on) are used in seven different ways: listening to public debate, monitoring situations, extending emergency response and management, crowd-sourcing and collaborative development, creating social cohesion, furthering causes (including charitable donation) and enhancing research. Appreciation of the positive side of social media is balanced by their potential for negative developments, such as disseminating rumours, undermining authority and promoting terrorist acts. This leads to an examination of the ethics of social media usage in crisis situations. Despite some clearly identifiable risks, for example regarding the violation of privacy, it appears that public consensus on ethics will tend to override unscrupulous attempts to subvert the media. Moreover, social media are a robust means of exposing corruption and malpractice. In synthesis, the widespread adoption and use of social media by members of the public throughout the world heralds a new age in which it is imperative that emergency managers adapt their working practices to the challenge and potential of this development. At the same time, they must heed the ethical warnings and ensure that social media are not abused or misused when crises and emergencies occur.

  16. Social media in disaster risk reduction and crisis management.

    PubMed

    Alexander, David E

    2014-09-01

    This paper reviews the actual and potential use of social media in emergency, disaster and crisis situations. This is a field that has generated intense interest. It is characterised by a burgeoning but small and very recent literature. In the emergencies field, social media (blogs, messaging, sites such as Facebook, wikis and so on) are used in seven different ways: listening to public debate, monitoring situations, extending emergency response and management, crowd-sourcing and collaborative development, creating social cohesion, furthering causes (including charitable donation) and enhancing research. Appreciation of the positive side of social media is balanced by their potential for negative developments, such as disseminating rumours, undermining authority and promoting terrorist acts. This leads to an examination of the ethics of social media usage in crisis situations. Despite some clearly identifiable risks, for example regarding the violation of privacy, it appears that public consensus on ethics will tend to override unscrupulous attempts to subvert the media. Moreover, social media are a robust means of exposing corruption and malpractice. In synthesis, the widespread adoption and use of social media by members of the public throughout the world heralds a new age in which it is imperative that emergency managers adapt their working practices to the challenge and potential of this development. At the same time, they must heed the ethical warnings and ensure that social media are not abused or misused when crises and emergencies occur. PMID:24306994

  17. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tilling, R. I.

    2008-01-01

    Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks - ground-based as well space-based - has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions) are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. elens (Washington, USA) in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines) in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-of-the-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  18. The critical role of volcano monitoring in risk reduction

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Tilling, R.I.

    2008-01-01

    Data from volcano-monitoring studies constitute the only scientifically valid basis for short-term forecasts of a future eruption, or of possible changes during an ongoing eruption. Thus, in any effective hazards-mitigation program, a basic strategy in reducing volcano risk is the initiation or augmentation of volcano monitoring at historically active volcanoes and also at geologically young, but presently dormant, volcanoes with potential for reactivation. Beginning with the 1980s, substantial progress in volcano-monitoring techniques and networks - ground-based as well space-based - has been achieved. Although some geochemical monitoring techniques (e.g., remote measurement of volcanic gas emissions) are being increasingly applied and show considerable promise, seismic and geodetic methods to date remain the techniques of choice and are the most widely used. Availability of comprehensive volcano-monitoring data was a decisive factor in the successful scientific and governmental responses to the reawakening of Mount St. Helens (Washington, USA) in 1980 and, more recently, to the powerful explosive eruptions at Mount Pinatubo (Luzon, Philippines) in 1991. However, even with the ever-improving state-ofthe-art in volcano monitoring and predictive capability, the Mount St. Helens and Pinatubo case histories unfortunately still represent the exceptions, rather than the rule, in successfully forecasting the most likely outcome of volcano unrest.

  19. POTENTIAL HEALTH RISK REDUCTION ARISING FROM REDUCED MERCURY EMISSIONS FROM COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS.

    SciTech Connect

    Sullivan, T. M.; Lipfert, F. W.; Morris, S. C.; Moskowitz, P. D.

    2001-09-01

    The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has announced plans to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from coal-fired power plants. EPA has not prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. To address this issue, Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) with support from the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy (DOE FE) prepared a quantitative assessment of the reduction in human health risk that could be achieved through reduction in coal plant emissions of Hg. The primary pathway for Hg exposure is through consumption of fish. The most susceptible population to Hg exposure is the fetus. Therefore the risk assessment focused on consumption of fish by women of child-bearing age. Dose response factors were generated from studies on loss of cognitive abilities (language skills, motor skills, etc.) by young children whose mothers consumed large amounts of fish with high Hg levels. Population risks were estimated for the general population in three regions of the country, (the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast) that were identified by EPA as being heavily impacted by coal emissions. Three scenarios for reducing Hg emissions from coal plants were considered: (1) A base case using current conditions; (2) A 50% reduction; and, (3) A 90% reduction. These reductions in emissions were assumed to translate linearly into a reduction in fish Hg levels of 8.6% and 15.5%, respectively. Population risk estimates were also calculated for two subsistence fisher populations. These groups of people consume substantially more fish than the general public and, depending on location, the fish may contain higher Hg levels than average. Risk estimates for these groups were calculated for the three Hg levels used for the general population analyses. Analysis shows that the general population risks for exposure of the fetus to Hg are small. Estimated risks under current conditions (i.e., no

  20. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  1. Tools for improving safety management in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet occupational accidents analysis period of 1998-2006.

    PubMed

    Aasjord, Halvard L

    2006-01-01

    Reporting of human accidents in the Norwegian Fishing Fleet has always been very difficult because there has been no tradition in making reports on all types of working accidents among fishermen, if the accident does not seem to be very serious or there is no economical incentive to report. Therefore reports are only written when the accidents are serious or if the fisherman is reported sick. Reports about an accident are sent to the insurance company, but another report should also be sent to the Norwegian Maritime Directorate (NMD). Comparing of data from one former insurance company and NMD shows that the real numbers of injuries or serious accidents among Norwegian fishermen could be up to two times more than the numbers reported to NMD. Special analyses of 1690 accidents from the so called PUS-database (NMD) for the period 1998-2002, show that the calculated risk was 23.6 accidents per 1000 man-years. This is quite a high risk level, and most of the accidents in the fishing fleet were rather serious. The calculated risks are highest for fishermen on board the deep sea fleet of trawlers (28.6 accidents per 1000 man-years) and also on the deep sea fleet of purse seiners (28.9 accidents per 1000 man-years). Fatal accidents over a longer period of 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006 are also roughly analysed. These data from SINTEF's own database show that the numbers of fatal accidents have been decreasing over this long period, except for the two periods 1980-84 and 1990-94 where we had some casualties with total losses of larger vessels with the loss of most of the crew, but also many others typical work accidents on smaller vessels. The total numbers of registered Norwegian fishermen and also the numbers of man-years have been drastically reduced over the 51.5 years from 1955 to 2006. The risks of fatal accidents have been very steady over time at a high level, although there has been a marked risk reduction since 1990-94. For the last 8.5-year period of January 1998

  2. RISK REDUCTION WITH A FUZZY EXPERT EXPLORATION TOOL

    SciTech Connect

    William W. Weiss

    2000-06-30

    Incomplete or sparse information on geologic or formation characteristics introduces a high level of risk for oil exploration and development projects. Expert systems have been developed and used in several disciplines and industries, including medical diagnostics, with favorable results. A state-of-the-art exploration ''expert'' tool, relying on a computerized data base and computer maps generated by neural networks, is proposed through the use of ''fuzzy'' logic, a relatively new mathematical treatment of imprecise or non-explicit parameters and values. This project will develop an Artificial Intelligence system that will draw upon a wide variety of information to provide realistic estimates of risk. ''Fuzzy logic,'' a system of integrating large amounts of inexact, incomplete information with modern computational methods to derive usable conclusions, has been demonstrated as a cost-effective computational technology in many industrial applications. During project year 1, 90% of geologic, geophysical, production and price data were assimilated for installation into the database. Logs provided geologic data consisting of formation tops of the Brushy Canyon, Lower Brushy Canyon, and Bone Springs zones of 700 wells used to construct regional cross sections. Regional structure and isopach maps were constructed using kriging to interpolate between the measured points. One of the structure derivative maps (azimuth of curvature) visually correlates with Brushy Canyon fields on the maximum change contours. Derivatives of the regional geophysical data also visually correlate with the location of the fields. The azimuth of maximum dip approximately locates fields on the maximum change contours. In a similar manner the second derivative in the x-direction of the gravity map visually correlates with the alignment of the known fields. The visual correlations strongly suggest that neural network architectures will be found to correlate regional attributes with individual well

  3. Overview of pivotal studies for prostate cancer risk reduction, past and present.

    PubMed

    Andriole, Gerald L

    2009-05-01

    Prostate cancer (PCa), with its potentially long latency, generally late-age onset, and high prevalence, is an ideal target for risk reduction and disease prevention strategies. Treatment of the disease is currently associated with significant side effects and reduced quality of life. Encouraging results are emerging in PCa risk reduction with 5alpha-reductase inhibitors (5-ARIs). The pivotal Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) with finasteride established the efficacy of 5-ARIs in reducing the period prevalence of PCa. Ongoing trials that will further clarify the role of 5-ARIs in preventing and treating PCa include the Reduction by Dutasteride of Prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE) with dutasteride in PCa risk reduction; the Reduction by Dutasteride of Clinical Progression Events in Expectant Management (REDEEM) trial on the effect of dutasteride on disease progression in low-grade localized PCa; and the Therapeutic Assessment of Rising PSAs [prostate-specific antigens] (TARP) trial on dutasteride in asymptomatic recurrent cancer. The data from these trials might initiate a paradigm shift in the attitudes of clinicians, healthcare policymakers, and patients to the benefits of PCa risk reduction strategies and their potential effect on a patient's health and quality of life. PMID:19375625

  4. Reflections from the interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sargeant, S.

    2012-04-01

    Scientific understanding of earthquakes and their attendant hazards is vital for the development of effective earthquake risk reduction strategies. Within the global disaster reduction policy framework (the Hyogo Framework for Action, overseen by the UN International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), the anticipated role of science and scientists is clear, with respect to risk assessment, loss estimation, space-based observation, early warning and forecasting. The importance of information sharing and cooperation, cross-disciplinary networks and developing technical and institutional capacity for effective disaster management is also highlighted. In practice, the degree to which seismological information is successfully delivered to and applied by individuals, groups or organisations working to manage or reduce the risk from earthquakes is variable. The challenge for scientists is to provide fit-for-purpose information that can be integrated simply into decision-making and risk reduction activities at all levels of governance and at different geographic scales, often by a non-technical audience (i.e. people without any seismological/earthquake engineering training). The interface between seismological research and earthquake risk reduction (defined here in terms of both the relationship between the science and its application, and the scientist and other risk stakeholders) is complex. This complexity is a function of a range issues that arise relating to communication, multidisciplinary working, politics, organisational practices, inter-organisational collaboration, working practices, sectoral cultures, individual and organisational values, worldviews and expectations. These factors can present significant obstacles to scientific information being incorporated into the decision-making process. The purpose of this paper is to present some personal reflections on the nature of the interface between the worlds of seismological research and risk reduction, and the

  5. Disaster Risk Reduction through Innovative Uses of Crowd Sourcing (Invited)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berger, J.; Greene, M.

    2010-12-01

    Crowd sourcing can be described as a method of distributed problem-solving. It takes advantage of the power of the crowd, which can in some cases be a community of experts and in other cases the collective insight of a broader range of contributors with varying degrees of domain knowledge. The term crowd sourcing was first used by Jeff Howe in a June 2006 Wired magazine article “The Rise of Crowdsourcing,” and is a combination of the terms “crowd” and “outsourcing.” Some commonly known examples of crowd sourcing, in its broadest sense, include Wikepedia, distributed participatory design projects, and consumer websites such as Yelp and Angie’s List. The popularity and success of early large-scale crowd sourcing activities is made possible through leveraging Web 2.0 technologies that allow for mass participation from distributed individuals. The Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI) in Oakland, California recently participated in two crowd sourcing projects. One was initiated and coordinated by EERI, while in the second case EERI was invited to contribute once the crowd sourcing activity was underway. In both projects there was: 1) the determination of a problem or set of tasks that could benefit immediately from the engagement of an informed volunteer group of professionals; 2) a segmenting of the problem into discrete pieces that could be completed in a short period of time (from ten minutes to four hours); 3) a call to action, where an interested community was made aware of the project; and 4) the collection, aggregation, vetting and ultimately distribution of the results in a relatively short period of time. The first EERI crowd sourcing example was the use of practicing engineers and engineering students in California to help estimate the number of pre-1980 concrete buildings in the high seismic risk counties in the state. This building type is known to perform poorly in earthquakes, and state officials were interested in understanding

  6. Sleep apnea and occupational accidents: Are oral appliances the solution?

    PubMed Central

    Rabelo Guimarães, Maria De Lourdes; Hermont, Ana Paula

    2014-01-01

    Background: Dental practitioners have a key role in the quality of life and prevention of occupational accidents of workers with Obstructive Sleep Apnea Syndrome (OSAS). Aim: The aim of this study was to review the impact of OSAS, the Continuous Positive Airway Pressure (CPAP) therapy, and the evidence regarding the use of oral appliances (OA) on the health and safety of workers. Materials and Methods: Searches were conducted in MEDLINE (PubMed), Lilacs and Sci ELO. Articles published from January 1980 to June 2014 were included. Results: The research retrieved 2188 articles and 99 met the inclusion criteria. An increase in occupational accidents due to reduced vigilance and attention in snorers and patients with OSAS was observed. Such involvements were related to excessive daytime sleepiness and neurocognitive function impairments. The use of OA are less effective when compared with CPAP, but the results related to excessive sleepiness and cognitive performance showed improvements similar to CPAP. Treatments with OA showed greater patient compliance than the CPAP therapy. Conclusion: OSAS is a prevalent disorder among workers, leads to increased risk of occupational accidents, and has a significant impact on the economy. The CPAP therapy reduces the risk of occupational accidents. The OA can improve the work performance; but there is no scientific evidence associating its use with occupational accidents reduction. Future research should focus on determining the cost-effectiveness of OA as well as its influence and efficacy in preventing occupational accidents. PMID:25568596

  7. What HIV-Positive MSM Want from Sexual Risk Reduction Interventions: Findings from a Qualitative Study

    PubMed Central

    Carey, Michael P.; Brown, Jennifer L.; Littlewood, Rae A.; Bostwick, Rebecca; Blair, Donald

    2014-01-01

    To facilitate the development of a tailored intervention that meets the needs of HIV-positive men who have sex with men (HIV-positive MSM), we conducted formative research with 52 HIV-positive MSM. We sought to (a) identify major barriers to consistent condom use, (b) characterize their interest in sexual risk reduction interventions, and (c) elicit feedback regarding optimal intervention format. Men identified several key barriers to consistent condom use, including treatment optimism, lessened support for safer sex in the broader gay community, challenges communicating with partners, and concerns about stigmatization following serostatus disclosure. Many men expressed an interest in health promotion programming, but did not want to participate in an intervention focusing exclusively on safer sex. Instead, they preferred a supportive group intervention that addresses other coping challenges as well as sexual risk reduction. Study results reveal important considerations for the development of appealing and efficacious risk reduction interventions for HIV-positive MSM. PMID:21993565

  8. What HIV-positive MSM want from sexual risk reduction interventions: findings from a qualitative study.

    PubMed

    Vanable, Peter A; Carey, Michael P; Brown, Jennifer L; Littlewood, Rae A; Bostwick, Rebecca; Blair, Donald

    2012-04-01

    To facilitate the development of a tailored intervention that meets the needs of HIV-positive men who have sex with men (HIV-positive MSM), we conducted formative research with 52 HIV-positive MSM. We sought to (a) identify major barriers to consistent condom use, (b) characterize their interest in sexual risk reduction interventions, and (c) elicit feedback regarding optimal intervention format. Men identified several key barriers to consistent condom use, including treatment optimism, lessened support for safer sex in the broader gay community, challenges communicating with partners, and concerns about stigmatization following serostatus disclosure. Many men expressed an interest in health promotion programming, but did not want to participate in an intervention focusing exclusively on safer sex. Instead, they preferred a supportive group intervention that addresses other coping challenges as well as sexual risk reduction. Study results reveal important considerations for the development of appealing and efficacious risk reduction interventions for HIV-positive MSM. PMID:21993565

  9. A framework for assessing risk reduction due to DNAPL mass removal from low permeability soils

    SciTech Connect

    Freeze, R.A.; McWhorter, D.B.

    1996-08-01

    Many emerging remediation technologies are designed to remove contaminant mass from source zones at DNAPL sites in response to regulatory requirements. There is often concern in the regulated community as to whether mass removal actually reduces risk, or whether the small risk reductions achieved warrant the large costs incurred. This paper sets out a framework for quantifying the degree to which risk is reduced as mass is removed from shallow, saturated, low-permeability, dual-porosity, DNAPL source zones. Risk is defined in terms of meeting an alternate concentration level (ACL) at a compliance well in an aquifer underlying the source zone. The ACL is back-calculated from a carcinogenic health-risk characterization at a downstream water-supply well. Source-zone mass-removal efficiencies are heavily dependent on the distribution of mass between media (fractures, matrix) and phases (dissolved, sorbed, free product). Due to the uncertainties in currently-available technology performance data, the scope of the paper is limited to developing a framework for generic technologies rather than making risk-reduction calculations for specific technologies. Despite the qualitative nature of the exercise, results imply that very high mass-removal efficiencies are required to achieve significant long-term risk reduction with technology, applications of finite duration. 17 refs., 7 figs., 6 tabs.

  10. Evaluation of potential severe accidents during low power and shutdown operations at Grand Gulf, Unit 1: Evaluation of severe accident risks for plant operational state 5 during a refueling outage. Supporting MELCOR calculations, Volume 6, Part 2

    SciTech Connect

    Kmetyk, L.N.; Brown, T.D.

    1995-03-01

    To gain a better understanding of the risk significance of low power and shutdown modes of operation, the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research at the NRC established programs to investigate the likelihood and severity of postulated accidents that could occur during low power and shutdown (LP&S) modes of operation at commercial nuclear power plants. To investigate the likelihood of severe core damage accidents during off power conditions, probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) were performed for two nuclear plants: Unit 1 of the Grand Gulf Nuclear Station, which is a BWR-6 Mark III boiling water reactor (BWR), and Unit 1 of the Surry Power Station, which is a three-loop, subatmospheric, pressurized water reactor (PWR). The analysis of the BWR was conducted at Sandia National Laboratories while the analysis of the PWR was performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory. This multi-volume report presents and discusses the results of the BWR analysis. The subject of this part presents the deterministic code calculations, performed with the MELCOR code, that were used to support the development and quantification of the PRA models. The background for the work documented in this report is summarized, including how deterministic codes are used in PRAS, why the MELCOR code is used, what the capabilities and features of MELCOR are, and how the code has been used by others in the past. Brief descriptions of the Grand Gulf plant and its configuration during LP&S operation and of the MELCOR input model developed for the Grand Gulf plant in its LP&S configuration are given.

  11. 41 CFR 102-80.55 - Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... Management Risks and Risk Reduction Strategies § 102-80.55 Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the... 41 Public Contracts and Property Management 3 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Are Federal agencies responsible for managing the execution of risk reduction projects? 102-80.55 Section 102-80.55...

  12. HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category among MSM in Vancouver.

    PubMed

    Bogowicz, Paul; Moore, David; Kanters, Steve; Michelow, Warren; Robert, Wayne; Hogg, Robert; Gustafson, Réka; Gilbert, Mark

    2016-03-01

    We carried out an analysis of a serobehavioural study of men who have sex with men >19 years of age in Vancouver, Canada to examine HIV testing behaviour and use of risk reduction strategies by HIV risk category, as defined by routinely gathered clinical data. We restricted our analysis to those who self-identified as HIV-negative, completed a questionnaire, and provided a dried blood spot sample. Of 842 participants, 365 (43.3%) were categorised as lower-risk, 245 (29.1%) as medium-risk and 232 (27.6%) as higher-risk. The prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was low (lower 0.8%, medium 3.3%, higher 3.9%; p = 0.032). Participants differed by risk category in terms of having had an HIV test in the previous year (lower 46.5%, medium 54.6%, higher 67.0%; p < 0.001) and in their use of serosorting (lower 23.3%, medium 48.3%, higher 43.1%; p < 0.001) and only having sex with HIV-positive men if those men had low viral loads or were taking HIV medication (lower 5.1%, medium 4.8%, higher 10.9%; p = 0.021) as risk reduction strategies. These findings speak to the need to consider segmented health promotion services for men who have sex with men with differing risk profiles. Risk stratification could be used to determine who might benefit from tailored multiple health promotion interventions, including HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis.

  13. Accident management information needs

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, D.J.; Ward, L.W.; Nelson, W.R.; Meyer, O.R. )

    1990-04-01

    In support of the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) Accident Management Research Program, a methodology has been developed for identifying the plant information needs necessary for personnel involved in the management of an accident to diagnose that an accident is in progress, select and implement strategies to prevent or mitigate the accident, and monitor the effectiveness of these strategies. This report describes the methodology and presents an application of this methodology to a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) with a large dry containment. A risk-important severe accident sequence for a PWR is used to examine the capability of the existing measurements to supply the necessary information. The method includes an assessment of the effects of the sequence on the measurement availability including the effects of environmental conditions. The information needs and capabilities identified using this approach are also intended to form the basis for more comprehensive information needs assessment performed during the analyses and development of specific strategies for use in accident management prevention and mitigation. 3 refs., 16 figs., 7 tabs.

  14. Promoting the University Social Responsibility in the Capacity Development Program for Landslide Risk Reduction in Indonesia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Verrier, M.; Fathani, T. F.; Andayani, B.

    2011-12-01

    One of the most challenges efforts for landslides disaster risk reduction in Indonesia is to provide an effective program for capacity development of the community living in the vulnerable area. Limited access for appropriate information and knowledge about the geology and landslide phenomena as well as the social-security constrains are the major challenges in capacity development program in the landslide prone area. Accordingly, an action for conducting community-based research and education program with respect to landslide mitigation and disaster risk reduction at the village level was established by implementing the University Social Responsibility Program. Such program has been conducted regularly in every academic semester as a part of the formal academic program at Universitas Gadjah Mada , Indonesia. Twenty students with multi-discipline backgrounds and supported by their lectures/advisers have to be deployed at the village for two months to carry out such mission. This action is also conducted under the coordination with the local/ national Government together with the local community, and may also with the private sectors. A series of research actions such as landslide investigation and hazard-risk mapping, social mapping and development of landslide early warning system were carried out in parallel with public education and evacuation drill for community empowerment and landslide risk reduction. A Community Task Force for Disaster Risk Reduction was also established during the community empowerment program, in order to guarantee the affectivity and sustainability of the disaster risk reduction program at the village level. It is crucial that this program is not only beneficial for empowering the village community to tackle the landslide problems, but also important to support the education for sustainable development program at the disaster prone area. Indeed, this capacity development program may also be considered as one best practice for transforming

  15. Estimation of thyroid doses and health risks resulting from the intake of radioactive iodine in foods and drinking water by the citizens of Tokyo after the Fukushima nuclear accident.

    PubMed

    Murakami, Michio; Oki, Taikan

    2012-06-01

    The release of radioactive materials from the Fukushima nuclear power plant after the Great East Japan Earthquake on 11 March 2011 poses health risks. In this study, the intake of iodine 131 (I-131) in drinking water and foods (milk, dairy products, and vegetables) by citizens of Tokyo was estimated. The effects of countermeasures (restrictions on the distribution of foods and the distribution of bottled water for infants) on reducing intake were also evaluated. The average thyroid equivalent doses without countermeasures from 21 March 2011 were 0.42 mSv in adults, 1.49 mSv in children, and 2.08 mSv in infants. Those with countermeasures were 0.28, 0.97, and 1.14 mSv respectively, reductions of 33%, 35%, and 45%. Drinking water contributed more to intake by adults and children than foods. The intake of I-131 within the first 2 weeks was more than 80% of the estimated intake, owing to its short half-life, indicating that rapid countermeasures are important in reducing intake. The average risks of cancer incidence and mortality due to I-131 for infants were estimated to be 3×10(-5) and 0.2×10(-5), respectively, lower than the annual risks of traffic accidents, naturally occurring radioactive material (potassium 40), and environmental pollutants such as diesel exhaust particles.

  16. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH USE OF EXTERNAL TECHNICAL REVIEWS, TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS AND TECHNICAL RISK RATINGS - 9174

    SciTech Connect

    Cercy, M; Steven P Schneider, S; Kurt D Gerdes, K

    2009-01-15

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. A large majority of these wastes and facilities are 'one-of-a-kind' and unique to DOE. Many of the programs to treat these wastes have been 'first-of-a-kind' and unprecedented in scope and complexity. This has meant that many of the technologies needed to successfully disposition these wastes were not yet developed or required significant re-engineering to be adapted for DOE-EM's needs. The DOE-EM program believes strongly in reducing the technical risk of its projects and has initiated several efforts to reduce those risks: (1) Technology Readiness Assessments to reduce the risks of deployment of new technologies; (2) External Technical Reviews as one of several steps to ensure the timely resolution of engineering and technology issues; and (3) Technical Risk Ratings as a means to monitor and communicate information about technical risks. This paper will present examples of how Technology Readiness Assessments, External Technical Reviews, and Technical Risk Ratings are being used by DOE-EM to reduce technical risks.

  17. RISK REDUCTION THROUGH USE OF EXTERNAL TECHNICAL REVIEWS, TECHNOLOGY READINESS ASSESSMENTS AND TECHNICAL RISK RATINGS - 9174

    SciTech Connect

    Cercy, M; Steven P Schneider, S; Kurt D Gerdes, K

    2008-12-12

    The U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Environmental Management (DOE-EM) was established to achieve the safe and compliant disposition of legacy wastes and facilities from defense nuclear applications. A large majority of these wastes and facilities are 'one-of-a-kind' and unique to DOE. Many of the programs to treat these wastes have been 'first-of-a-kind' and unprecedented in scope and complexity. This has meant that many of the technologies needed to successfully disposition these wastes were not yet developed or required significant re-engineering to be adapted for DOE-EM's needs. The DOE-EM program believes strongly in reducing the technical risk of its projects and has initiated several efforts to reduce those risks: (1) Technology Readiness Assessments to reduce the risks of deployment of new technologies; (2) External Technical Reviews as one of several steps to ensure the timely resolution of engineering and technology issues; and (3) Technical Risk Ratings as a means to monitor and communicate information about technical risks. This paper will present examples of how Technology Readiness Assessments, External Technical Reviews, and Technical Risk Ratings are being used by DOE-EM to reduce technical risks.

  18. Radiotherapy Accidents

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mckenzie, Alan

    A major benefit of a Quality Assurance system in a radiotherapy centre is that it reduces the likelihood of an accident. For over 20 years I have been the interface in the UK between the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine and the media — newspapers, radio and TV — and so I have learned about radiotherapy accidents from personal experience. In some cases, these accidents did not become public and so the hospital cannot be identified. Nevertheless, lessons are still being learned.

  19. Assessment of the Risk of Medium-Term Internal Contamination in Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Accident

    PubMed Central

    Gilmour, Stuart; Tsubokura, Masaharu; Nomura, Shuhei; Kami, Masahiro; Oikawa, Tomoyoshi; Kanazawa, Yukio; Shibuya, Kenji

    2014-01-01

    Background: The Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear disaster, the first level-7 major nuclear disaster since Chernobyl, raised concerns about the future health consequences of exposure to and intake of radionuclides. Factors determining the risk and level of internal radiation contamination after a nuclear accident, which are a key to understanding and improving current nuclear disaster management, are not well studied. Objective: We investigated both the prevalence and level of internal contamination in residents of Minamisoma, and identified factors determining the risk and levels of contamination. Methods: We implemented a program assessing internal radiation contamination using a whole body counter (WBC) measurement and a questionnaire survey in Minamisoma, between October 2011 and March 2012. Results: Approximately 20% of the city’s population (8,829 individuals) participated in the WBC measurement for internal contamination, of which 94% responded to the questionnaire. The proportion of participants with detectable internal contamination was 40% in adults and 9% in children. The level of internal contamination ranged from 2.3 to 196.5 Bq/kg (median, 11.3 Bq/kg). Tobit regression analysis identified two main risk factors: more time spent outdoors, and intake of potentially contaminated foods and water. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, with sensible and reasonable precautions, people may be able to live continuously in radiation-affected areas with limited contamination risk. To enable this, nuclear disaster response should strictly enforce food and water controls and disseminate evidence-based and up-to-date information about avoidable contamination risks. Citation: Sugimoto A, Gilmour S, Tsubokura M, Nomura S, Kami M, Oikawa T, Kanazawa Y, Shibuya K. 2014. Assessment of the risk of medium-term internal contamination in Minamisoma City, Fukushima, Japan, after the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear accident. Environ Health Perspect 122:587–593;

  20. Cardiovascular Risk Reduction for African-American Men through Health Empowerment and Anger Management

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stephens, Torrance; Braithwaite, Harold; Johnson, Larry; Harris, Catrell; Katkowsky, Steven; Troutman, Adewale

    2008-01-01

    Objective: To examine impact of CVD risk reduction intervention for African-American men in the Atlanta Empowerment Zone (AEZ) designed to target anger management. Design: Wilcoxon Signed-Rank Test was employed as a non-parametric alternative to the t-test for independent samples. This test was employed because the data used in this analysis…

  1. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    PubMed

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns.

  2. Ready for the Storm: Education for Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kagawa, Fumiyo; Selby, David

    2012-01-01

    Incidences of disaster and climate change impacts are rising globally. Disaster risk reduction and climate change education are two educational responses to present and anticipated increases in the severity and frequency of hazards. They share significant complementarities and potential synergies, the latter as yet largely unexploited. Three…

  3. Combining Primary Prevention and Risk Reduction Approaches in Sexual Assault Protection Programming

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Menning, Chadwick; Holtzman, Mellisa

    2015-01-01

    Objective: The object of this study is to extend prior evaluations of Elemental, a sexual assault protection program that combines primary prevention and risk reduction strategies within a single program. Participants and Methods: During 2012 and 2013, program group and control group students completed pretest, posttest, and 6-week and 6-month…

  4. 75 FR 44275 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-07-28

    ..., 2010, (75 FR 32960), FEMA published a notice of intent to prepare an EIS and request for comments for... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA...

  5. 75 FR 32960 - Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-06-10

    ... From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY Federal Emergency Management Agency Hazardous Fire Risk Reduction, East Bay Hills, CA AGENCY... of fire hazard. These projects would affect approximately 980 acres of the Wildland-Urban...

  6. The STD and HIV Epidemics in African American Youth: Reconceptualizing Approaches to Risk Reduction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Kim S.; Boyer, Cherrie B.; Cotton, Garnette

    2004-01-01

    Sexually transmitted infections, including human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), disproportionately affect African American adolescents and young adults. Many of our current strategies and approaches have been inadequate in the promotion of risk reduction among youth and need to be reconceptualized. This article identifies issues that may guide…

  7. Nation-building policies in Timor-Leste: disaster risk reduction, including climate change adaptation.

    PubMed

    Mercer, Jessica; Kelman, Ilan; do Rosario, Francisco; de Deus de Jesus Lima, Abilio; da Silva, Augusto; Beloff, Anna-Maija; McClean, Alex

    2014-10-01

    Few studies have explored the relationships between nation-building, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Focusing on small island developing states, this paper examines nation-building in Timor-Leste, a small island developing state that recently achieved independence. Nation-building in Timor-Leste is explored in the context of disaster risk reduction, which necessarily includes climate change adaptation. The study presents a synopsis of Timor-Leste's history and its nation-building efforts as well as an overview of the state of knowledge of disaster risk reduction including climate change adaptation. It also offers an analysis of significant gaps and challenges in terms of vertical and horizontal governance, large donor presence, data availability and the integration of disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation for nation-building in Timor-Leste. Relevant and applicable lessons are provided from other small island developing states to assist Timor-Leste in identifying its own trajectory out of underdevelopment while it builds on existing strengths.

  8. Social Psychological Dynamics of Enhanced HIV Risk Reduction among Peer Interventionists

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dickson-Gomez, Julia; Weeks, Margaret R.; Convey, Mark; Li, Jianghong

    2011-01-01

    The authors present a model of interactive social psychological and relational feedback processes leading to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) risk reduction behavior change among active drug users trained as Peer Health Advocates (PHAs). The model is supported by data from qualitative interviews with PHAs and members of their drug-using networks…

  9. Evaluation of an Alcohol Risk Reduction Program (PRIME for Life) in Young Swedish Military Conscripts

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hallgren, Mats A.; Kallmen, Hakan; Leifman, Hakan; Sjolund, Torbjorn; Andreasson, Sven

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of the PRIME for Life risk reduction program in reducing alcohol consumption and improving knowledge and attitudes towards alcohol use in male Swedish military conscripts, aged 18 to 22 years. Design/methodology/approach: A quasi-experimental design was used in which 1,371…

  10. Some Methodological Problems, Solutions and Findings from Evaluating Risk Reduction Projects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goldstein, Harris K.; Di Nitto, Diana

    1982-01-01

    Reports three methodological problems found in evaluating five risk reduction projects in Florida. Found that activities aimed at producing positive self-awareness and exposure to rewarding nondrug activities taught with a mixture of didactic and discussion methods and exercises are best. (Author/JAC)

  11. Criminality among Female Drug Users Following an HIV Risk-Reduction Intervention

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Theall, Katherine P.; Elifson, Kirk W.; Sterk, Claire E.; Stewart, Eric A.

    2007-01-01

    The main objectives of this article are to determine the prevalence of criminality among a sample of female African American drug users and to examine change in criminality over time, including the correlates associated with this change. Data were collected from 336 adult women who participated in an HIV risk-reduction intervention focused on the…

  12. Pediatricians' Role and Practices regarding Provision of Guidance about Sexual Risk Reduction to Parents

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Kim S.; Wyckoff, Sarah C.; Lin, Carol Y.; Whitaker, Daniel J.; Sukalac, Thomas; Fowler, Mary Glenn

    2008-01-01

    A randomly selected nationally representative sample of 508 practicing pediatricians was surveyed in order to identify factors associated with physician delivery of primary prevention to parents about sexual risk reduction (SRR). A full 86% (n=435) reported that provision of SRR guidance is equally or more important than other guidance provided to…

  13. College Women and Personal Goals: Cognitive Dimensions that Differentiate Risk-Reduction Sexual Decisions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Moore, Nelwyn B.; Davidson, J. Kenneth, Sr.

    2006-01-01

    As the twenty-first century begins, a high level of participation in premarital sexual intercourse by college women is well-documented. But, in the research exploring risk-reduction sexual behaviors, the relationship of cognitive abilities to responsible sexual behavior has been under-researched. Anonymous questionnaires were administered to 626…

  14. The Differential Effects of Social Media Sites for Promoting Cancer Risk Reduction.

    PubMed

    Lauckner, Carolyn; Whitten, Pamela

    2016-09-01

    Social media are potentially valuable tools for disseminating cancer education messages, but the differential effects of various sites on persuasive outcomes are unknown. In an effort to inform future health promotion, this research tested the effects of Facebook, YouTube, Twitter, and blogs for delivering a cancer risk reduction message. Using an experimental design, participants were randomly placed in several conditions that delivered the same message but with different forms of social media. Effects on comprehension and attitudes were examined, as they are important variables in the behavior change process. YouTube led to higher comprehension and stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction than Twitter, but there were no differences between other sites. Additionally, YouTube led to stronger attitudes toward cancer risk reduction as compared to Facebook, but not any other sites. These results demonstrate that, even if the message is kept constant, the form of social media used to deliver content can have an effect on persuasive outcomes. More research is needed to determine the mechanisms behind the differences found, however. Altogether, this line of research is valuable for any individuals seeking to use social media for health promotion purposes and could have direct implications for the development of cancer risk reduction campaigns. PMID:26156568

  15. Perceived Drug Use Functions and Risk Reduction Practices Among High-Risk Nonmedical Users of Prescription Drugs

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Karol; Kecojevic, Aleksandar; Lankenau, Stephen E.

    2014-01-01

    Nonmedical use of prescription drugs has become the fastest growing drug problem in the United States, particularly among young adults. This study examines the reasons young polydrug users misuse prescription drugs, and explores how young users employ risk reduction strategies to minimize adverse consequences. The sample was recruited during 2008 and 2009 in Los Angeles and New York, and comprised 45 nonmedical users of prescription drugs, aged 16 to 25. Data from a semistructured interview were analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively. Participants reported nonmedical use of prescription drugs to change mood, to facilitate activity, and to monitor the intake of other substances. Commonly employed risk reduction strategies included calculating pill timing, dosage, and access, and monitoring frequency of use, particularly when combining different substances. Most study participants often planned drug use to occur within socially acceptable parameters, such that prescription drug misuse was a normalized feature of their everyday lives. PMID:25477621

  16. Quantitative Cyber Risk Reduction Estimation Methodology for a Small Scada Control System

    SciTech Connect

    Miles A. McQueen; Wayne F. Boyer; Mark A. Flynn; George A. Beitel

    2006-01-01

    We propose a new methodology for obtaining a quick quantitative measurement of the risk reduction achieved when a control system is modified with the intent to improve cyber security defense against external attackers. The proposed methodology employs a directed graph called a compromise graph, where the nodes represent stages of a potential attack and the edges represent the expected time-to-compromise for differing attacker skill levels. Time-to-compromise is modeled as a function of known vulnerabilities and attacker skill level. The methodology was used to calculate risk reduction estimates for a specific SCADA system and for a specific set of control system security remedial actions. Despite an 86% reduction in the total number of vulnerabilities, the estimated time-to-compromise was increased only by about 3 to 30% depending on target and attacker skill level.

  17. Radionuclide release calculations for selected severe accident scenarios. Volume 3. PWR, subatmospheric containment design

    SciTech Connect

    Denning, R.S.; Gieseke, J.A.; Cybulskis, P.; Lee, K.W.; Jordan, H.; Curtis, L.A.; Kelly, R.F.; Kogan, V.; Schumacher, P.M.

    1986-07-01

    This report presents results of analyses of the enviromental releases of fission products (source terms) for severe accident scenarios in a pressurized water reactor with a subatmospheric containment design. The analyses were performed to support the Severe Accident Risk Reduction/Risk Rebaselining Program (SARRP) which is being undertaken for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission by Sandia National Laboratories. In the SARRP program, risk estimates are being generated for a number of reference plant designs. the Surry plant has been used in this study as the reference plant for a subatmospheric design.

  18. The association of hypertension and diabetes: prevalence, cardiovascular risk and protection by blood pressure reduction.

    PubMed

    Mancia, G

    2005-04-01

    Diabetes and hypertension frequently coexist, and their combination provides additive increases in the risk of life-threatening cardiovascular events. Recent guidelines agree on the need for early, aggressive reduction of blood pressure, with a goal of <130/80 mmHg, in patients with diabetes. The mechanism that underpins the increased sensitivity of diabetic subjects to hypertension is not known, but may involve impaired autoregulation or attenuated nocturnal decrease of blood pressure. All classes of antihypertensive agents are effective in reducing blood pressure in diabetic subjects, and all show evidence of a concomitant reduction in cardiovascular risk. Although there is some evidence that agents that interrupt the renin-angiotensin system (RAS) provide greater protective effects, the data are not conclusive. However, most diabetic subjects will require combination therapy to reach goal blood pressure. Antihypertensive drugs can also significantly influence the probability that otherwise healthy individuals will develop metabolic syndrome or type 2 diabetes. While diuretics and betablockers have a prodiabetic effect, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin II receptor blockers may prevent diabetes more effectively than the metabolically neutral calcium channel blockers. Given that diabetes is an important cardiovascular risk factor, there is the potential for reductions in risk due to reduced blood pressure to be offset by an increased risk due to the development of diabetes. Such concerns should be considered in the selection of antihypertensive therapy. PMID:15868115

  19. A Contextualized Approach to Faith-Based HIV Risk Reduction for African American Women

    PubMed Central

    Stewart, Jennifer M.; Rogers, Christopher K.; Bellinger, Dawn; Thompson, Keitra

    2016-01-01

    HIV/AIDS has a devastating impact on African Americans (AA), particularly women and young adults. We sought to characterize risks, barriers, content and delivery needs for a faith-based intervention to reduce HIV risk among AA women ages 18–25. In a convergent parallel mixed methods study we conducted four focus groups (n=38) and surveyed 71 young adult women. Data were collected across 4 AA churches for a total of 109 participants. We found the majority of women in this sample were engaged in behaviors that put them at risk for contracting HIV, struggled with religiously based barriers and matters of sexuality, and had a desire to incorporate their intimate relationships, parenting and financial burdens into faith-based HIV risk reduction interventions (RRIs). Incorporating additional social context related factors into HIV RRIs for young AA women is critical to adapting and developing HIV interventions to reduce risk among young adult women in faith settings. PMID:26879828

  20. Cost-Effectiveness of Health Risk Reduction After Lifestyle Education in the Small Workplace

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Jorie C.; Lewis, James B.

    2012-01-01

    Introduction Investigations suggest that worksite health promotions in large companies decrease employer health costs and the risk for chronic disease. However, evidence of the success of such programs in small organizations is lacking. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a worksite health promotion program improves health risk and is cost-effective for a small employer. Methods Intervention (n = 29) and comparison (n = 31) participants from a 172-employee organization underwent health screening of risk factors for coronary heart disease at baseline (fall 2006) and at 12 months (fall 2007). The intervention group attended lifestyle education videoconferences and reported physical activity. We used the Framingham Risk Score to calculate risk of coronary heart disease. To calculate cost-effectiveness, we used direct employer costs of the program divided by either the relative reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol or the absolute change in coronary heart disease risk. Results At 12 months, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, total cholesterol, and number of metabolic syndrome markers were significantly higher in the comparison group than in the intervention group. Total cholesterol was significantly lower at 12 months than at baseline in the intervention group. Waist circumference and number of metabolic syndrome markers increased significantly from baseline in the comparison group. Cost-effectiveness of the intervention was $10.17 per percentage-point reduction of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol and $454.23 per point reduction in coronary heart disease risk. Conclusion This study demonstrated the cost-effectiveness in a small organization of a worksite health promotion that improved low-density lipoproteins and coronary heart disease risk in participating employees. PMID:22575081

  1. Calculation notes that support accident scenario and consequence development for the subsurface leak remaining subsurface accident

    SciTech Connect

    Ryan, G.W., Westinghouse Hanford

    1996-07-12

    This document supports the development and presentation of the following accident scenario in the TWRS Final Safety Analysis Report: Subsurface Leak Remaining Subsurface. The calculations needed to quantify the risk associated with this accident scenario are included within.

  2. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part I: Introduction, Terminology, Research and Operational Applications.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-01-01

    Twitter, a popular communications platform, is identified as contributing to improved mortality and morbidity outcomes resulting from the 2013 Hattiesburg, Mississippi EF-4 Tornado. This study describes the methodology by which Twitter was investigated as a potential disaster risk reduction and management tool at the community level and the process by which the at-risk population was identified from the broader Twitter user population. By understanding how various factors contribute to the superspreading of messages, one can better optimize Twitter as an essential communications and risk reduction tool. This study introduces Parts II, III and IV which further define the technological and scientific knowledge base necessary for developing future competency base curriculum and content for Twitter assisted disaster management education and training at the community level. PMID:26203395

  3. Preliminary findings of an intervention integrating modified directly observed therapy and risk reduction counseling.

    PubMed

    Mitchell, C G; Freels, S; Creticos, C M; Oltean, A; Douglas, R

    2007-04-01

    Various interventions have been proposed to address these ongoing needs of HIV-positive patients as they encounter challenges with medication adherence and risk reduction. This report presents the findings of a study that pilots 'DAART+', an intervention that integrates modified directly observed therapy (MDOT), and risk reduction counseling for a population of marginally housed, substance-using persons. The pilot study intended to assess the feasibility of the intervention and to obtain data to assess the intervention's potential effectiveness. The preliminary data reveal that 83% of participants who completed the intervention (n=18) had undetectable viral load (VL) (VL< or =400 copies/mL) which represents a 2.15 log(10) decrease from baseline. Risk behaviors also changed modestly with self-reported increases in condom usage.

  4. Nuts and legume seeds for cardiovascular risk reduction: scientific evidence and mechanisms of action.

    PubMed

    Souza, Rávila G M; Gomes, Aline C; Naves, Maria M V; Mota, João F

    2015-06-01

    Consumption of tree nuts and legume seeds is associated with a reduction in cardiovascular risk. The reduction in blood lipids and in inflammatory and oxidative processes exhibited by bioactive compounds such as monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids, fibers, phenolic compounds, tocopherols, phospholipids, carotenoids, some minerals, and arginine, has stimulated research on the mechanisms of action of these substances through distinct experimental approaches. It is, therefore, important to know the metabolic effect of each nut and legume seed or the mixture of them to choose the most suitable nutritional interventions in clinical practice. The aim of this narrative bibliographic review was to investigate the effects of tree nuts and legume seeds on biomarkers of cardiovascular risk, as well as their mechanisms of action with regard to lipid profiles, insulin resistance, arterial pressure, oxidative stress, and inflammation. The findings indicate that a mixture of nuts and legume seeds optimizes the protective effect against cardiovascular risk. PMID:26011909

  5. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part I: Introduction, Terminology, Research and Operational Applications.

    PubMed

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-06-29

    Twitter, a popular communications platform, is identified as contributing to improved mortality and morbidity outcomes resulting from the 2013 Hattiesburg, Mississippi EF-4 Tornado. This study describes the methodology by which Twitter was investigated as a potential disaster risk reduction and management tool at the community level and the process by which the at-risk population was identified from the broader Twitter user population. By understanding how various factors contribute to the superspreading of messages, one can better optimize Twitter as an essential communications and risk reduction tool. This study introduces Parts II, III and IV which further define the technological and scientific knowledge base necessary for developing future competency base curriculum and content for Twitter assisted disaster management education and training at the community level.

  6. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  7. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation.

    PubMed

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W; Storlazzi, Curt D; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world's coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence. PMID:24825660

  8. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-05-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

  9. Nuts and legume seeds for cardiovascular risk reduction: scientific evidence and mechanisms of action.

    PubMed

    Souza, Rávila G M; Gomes, Aline C; Naves, Maria M V; Mota, João F

    2015-06-01

    Consumption of tree nuts and legume seeds is associated with a reduction in cardiovascular risk. The reduction in blood lipids and in inflammatory and oxidative processes exhibited by bioactive compounds such as monounsaturated and polyunsaturated fatty acids, fibers, phenolic compounds, tocopherols, phospholipids, carotenoids, some minerals, and arginine, has stimulated research on the mechanisms of action of these substances through distinct experimental approaches. It is, therefore, important to know the metabolic effect of each nut and legume seed or the mixture of them to choose the most suitable nutritional interventions in clinical practice. The aim of this narrative bibliographic review was to investigate the effects of tree nuts and legume seeds on biomarkers of cardiovascular risk, as well as their mechanisms of action with regard to lipid profiles, insulin resistance, arterial pressure, oxidative stress, and inflammation. The findings indicate that a mixture of nuts and legume seeds optimizes the protective effect against cardiovascular risk.

  10. The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

    PubMed Central

    Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

    2014-01-01

    The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence. PMID:24825660

  11. Twitter as a Potential Disaster Risk Reduction Tool. Part I: Introduction, Terminology, Research and Operational Applications

    PubMed Central

    Cooper, Guy Paul; Yeager, Violet; Burkle, Frederick M.; Subbarao, Italo

    2015-01-01

    Twitter, a popular communications platform, is identified as contributing to improved mortality and morbidity outcomes resulting from the 2013 Hattiesburg, Mississippi EF-4 Tornado. This study describes the methodology by which Twitter was investigated as a potential disaster risk reduction and management tool at the community level and the process by which the at-risk population was identified from the broader Twitter user population. By understanding how various factors contribute to the superspreading of messages, one can better optimize Twitter as an essential communications and risk reduction tool. This study introduces Parts II, III and IV which further define the technological and scientific knowledge base necessary for developing future competency base curriculum and content for Twitter assisted disaster management education and training at the community level.  PMID:26203395

  12. The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

    2014-01-01

    Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2564 grade 10 students and their parents in The Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention which should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs. PMID:25490732

  13. The impact of parent involvement in an effective adolescent risk reduction intervention on sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Bo; Stanton, Bonita; Deveaux, Lynette; Li, Xiaoming; Koci, Veronica; Lunn, Sonja

    2014-12-01

    Parent involvement in prevention efforts targeting adolescents increases the impact of such programs. However, the majority of risk-reduction intervention programs that are implemented through schools do not include parents, in part because most existing parental interventions require significant time commitment by parents. We designed a brief parent-adolescent sexual risk communication intervention to be delivered with an effective HIV prevention intervention as part of a randomized, controlled trial among 2,564 grade 10 students and their parents in the Bahamas. Mixed effects modeling analysis was conducted to evaluate the effect of the brief parent-adolescent communication intervention using four waves of longitudinal data. Results indicate that a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention is effective in improving parent-adolescent communication on sex-related issues and perceived parental monitoring as well as the youth's condom use skills and self-efficacy. There is a marginal effect on consistent condom use. In addition, there is an apparent dose effect of the brief parent intervention on perceived parent-adolescent sexual risk communication and adolescent outcomes. These findings suggest that adolescent risk reduction interventions should include a brief parent-adolescent communication intervention that should be reinforced by periodic boosters in order to enhance the impact of adolescent HIV prevention programs. PMID:25490732

  14. Trial of stress reduction for hypertension in older African Americans. II. Sex and risk subgroup analysis.

    PubMed

    Alexander, C N; Schneider, R H; Staggers, F; Sheppard, W; Clayborne, B M; Rainforth, M; Salerno, J; Kondwani, K; Smith, S; Walton, K G; Egan, B

    1996-08-01

    Our objective was to test the short-term efficacy and feasibility of two stress-reduction approaches for the treatment of hypertension in older African Americans, focusing on subgroup analysis by sex and by high and low risk on six measures of hypertension risk: psychosocial stress, obesity, alcohol use, physical inactivity, dietary sodium-potassium ratio, and a composite measure. The study involved a follow-up subgroup analysis of a 3-month randomized, controlled, single-blind trial conducted in a primary care, inner-city health center. Subjects were 127 African American men and women, aged 55 to 85 years, with diastolic pressure of 90 to 104 mm Hg and systolic pressure less than or equal to 179 mm Hg. Of these, 16 did not complete follow-up blood pressure measurements. Mental and physical stress-reduction approaches-the Transcendental Meditation technique and progressive muscle relaxation, respectively-were compared with a life-style modification education control and with each other. Both systolic and diastolic pressures changed from baseline to follow-up for both sexes and for high and low risk level (defined by median split) on the six measures of hypertension risk. Compared with education control subjects, women practicing the Transcendental Meditation technique showed adjusted declines in systolic (10.4 mm Hg, P < .01) and diastolic (5.9 mm Hg, P < .01) pressures. Men in this treatment group also declined in both systolic (12.7 mm Hg, P < .01) and diastolic (8.1 mm Hg, P < .001) pressures compared with control subjects. Women practicing muscle relaxation did not show a significant decrease compared with control subjects, and men declined significantly in diastolic pressure only (6.2 mm Hg, P < .01). For the measure of psychosocial stress, both the high and low risk subgroups using the Transcendental Meditation technique declined in systolic (high risk, P = .0003; low, P = .06) and diastolic (high risk, P = .001; low, P = .008) pressures compared with control

  15. Schizophrenia--A High-Risk Factor for Suicides: Clues to Risk Reduction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Caldwell, Constance B.; Gottesman, Irving I.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that suicide is chief cause of premature death among schizophrenic persons, with lifetime incidence of suicide for patients with schizophrenia at 10-13% compared to general population estimate of 1%. Discusses salient risk factors for suicide in schizophrenics and types of especially vulnerable patients identified by research. Notes that…

  16. 76 FR 44301 - Information Collection; Homeowner Risk Reduction Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate...

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-07-25

    ... Climate Change Impacts AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice; request for comment. SUMMARY: In... Behaviors Concerning Wildfire Risks and Climate Change Impacts. The information will be collected from... these choices, particularly factors related to climate change impacts. This information will assist...

  17. HIV Risk Reduction With Buprenorphine-Naloxone or Methadone: Findings From A Randomized Trial

    PubMed Central

    Woody, George; Bruce, Douglas; Korthuis, P. Todd; Chhatre, Sumedha; Hillhouse, Maureen; Jacobs, Petra; Sorensen, James; Saxon, Andrew J.; Metzger, David; Ling, Walter

    2014-01-01

    Objectives Compare HIV injecting and sex risk in patients being treated with methadone (MET) or buprenorphine-naloxone (BUP). Methods Secondary analysis from a study of liver enzyme changes in patients randomized to MET or BUP who completed 24-weeks of treatment and had 4 or more blood draws. The initial 1:1 randomization was changed to 2:1 (BUP: MET) after 18 months due to higher dropout in BUP. The Risk Behavior Survey (RBS) measured past 30-day HIV risk at baseline and weeks 12 and 24. Results Among 529 patients randomized to MET, 391 (74%) were completers; among 740 randomized to BUP, 340 (46%) were completers; 700 completed the RBS. There were significant reductions in injecting risk (p< 0.0008) with no differences between groups in mean number of times reported injecting heroin, speedball, other opiates, and number of injections; or percent who shared needles, did not clean shared needles with bleach, shared cookers, or engaged in front/back loading of syringes. The percent having multiple sex partners decreased equally in both groups (p<0.03). For males on BUP the sex risk composite increased; for males on MET, the sex risk decreased resulting in significant group differences over time (p<0.03). For females, there was a significant reduction in sex risk (p<0.02) with no group differences. Conclusions Among MET and BUP patients that remained in treatment, HIV injecting risk was equally and markedly reduced, however MET retained more patients. Sex risk was equally and significantly reduced among females in both treatment conditions, but increased for males on BUP, and decreased for males on MET. PMID:24751432

  18. Hombre Seguro (Safe Men): a sexual risk reduction intervention for male clients of female sex workers

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Male clients of female sex workers (FSWs) are at risk of HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We conducted a two-arm randomized controlled trial to test the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention for male clients of FSWs in Tijuana, Mexico. Methods/Design Male clients of FSWs who were at least 18, were HIV-negative at baseline, and reported recent unprotected sex with FSWs were randomized to the Hombre Seguro sexual risk reduction intervention, or a time-attention didactic control condition. Each condition lasted approximately one hour. Participants underwent interviewer-administered surveys and testing for HIV and other STIs at baseline, and at 4, 8, and 12 month follow-ups. Combined HIV/STI incidence and unprotected vaginal and anal sex acts with FSWs were the primary outcomes. Discussion A total of 400 participants were randomized to one of the two conditions. Analyses indicated that randomization was successful; there were no significant differences between the participants in the two conditions at baseline. Average follow-up was 84% across both conditions. This is the first study to test the efficacy of a sexual risk reduction intervention for male clients of FSWs using the rigor of a randomized controlled trial. Trial registration NCT01280838, Date of registration: January 19, 2011. PMID:24885949

  19. Amphetamine-type stimulant use and the risk of injury or death as a result of a road-traffic accident: A systematic review of observational studies.

    PubMed

    Hayley, Amie C; Downey, Luke A; Shiferaw, Brook; Stough, Con

    2016-06-01

    Amphetamine-type substances are frequently detected among drivers injured or killed due to road-trauma. However, the role of this substance in crash causation remains equivocal. We performed a systematic review to evaluate existing evidence regarding the association between amphetamine use and the risk of injury or death due to road traffic accidents. A bibliographical search of PubMed, SafetyLit, Scopus, and Science Direct literature databases from 01 January 1980 until May 2015 was performed. The quality of included studies was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottowa Scale (NOS) (cut-off of ≥7 indicated high quality). Inter-rater reliability between three independent reviewers for the NOS was calculated using Cohens kappa (κ) statistic, and best-evidence synthesis was performed. A total of 182 articles were found. Nine studies met eligibility criteria for inclusion for review, and seven studies were included for best-evidence synthesis. Best-evidence synthesis demonstrated a conflicting level of evidence for associations between the use of-amphetamine-type substances and the risk of sustaining an injury, and a moderate level of evidence between amphetamine use and the risk of death due to road trauma. This is the first review to synthesise evidence regarding the association between amphetamine-type substance use and the risk of injury or death due to a road traffic accident. More conclusive evidence of death due to road trauma among amphetamine users may reflect significant and global deficits in functioning associated with effective vehicular control under the influence of this substance. Additional high quality, sufficiently powered studies are required to elucidate the magnitude of these associations. PMID:27006144

  20. Predicted reduction in lung cancer risk following cessation of smoking and radon exposure

    SciTech Connect

    Ennever, F.K. )

    1990-03-01

    Recently there has been considerable public and regulatory concern that radon, produced by the decay of naturally occurring uranium, can accumulate in homes, offices, and schools at levels that may substantially increase the risk of lung cancer. The major cause of lung cancer is smoking, and radon appears to interact multiplicatively with smoking in causing lung cancer. Thus, the most effective way to reduce the increased risk of lung cancer resulting from radon exposure is to cease smoking. In this paper, a model for the risks associated with radon exposure that was developed by a committee of the National Academy of Sciences is used to calculate the benefits, in terms of reduction in lifetime risk of lung cancer, of ceasing to smoke, ceasing radon exposure, or ceasing both. Ceasing to smoke is considerably more beneficial than ceasing radon exposure, and thus policymakers addressing the health effects of radon should place priority on encouraging individuals to stop smoking.

  1. A risk-reduction approach for optimal software release time determination with the delay incurred cost

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Rui; Li, Yan-Fu; Zhang, Jun-Guang; Li, Xiang

    2015-07-01

    Most existing research on software release time determination assumes that parameters of the software reliability model (SRM) are deterministic and the reliability estimate is accurate. In practice, however, there exists a risk that the reliability requirement cannot be guaranteed due to the parameter uncertainties in the SRM, and such risk can be as high as 50% when the mean value is used. It is necessary for the software project managers to reduce the risk to a lower level by delaying the software release, which inevitably increases the software testing costs. In order to incorporate the managers' preferences over these two factors, a decision model based on multi-attribute utility theory (MAUT) is developed for the determination of optimal risk-reduction release time.

  2. Rapid Exposure Assessment of Nationwide River Flood for Disaster Risk Reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kwak, Y.; Park, J.; Arifuzzaman, B.; Iwami, Y.; Amirul, Md.; Kondoh, A.

    2016-06-01

    considerably increased. For flood disaster risk reduction, it is important to identify and characterize flood area, locations (particularly lowland along rivers), and durations. For this purpose, flood mapping and monitoring are an imperative process and the fundamental part of risk management as well as emergency response. Our ultimate goal is to detect flood inundation areas over a nationwide scale despite limitations of optical and multispectral images, and to estimate flood risk in terms of affected people. We propose a methodological possibility to be used as a standard approach for nationwide rapid flood exposure assessment with the use of the multi-temporal Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS), a big contributor to progress in near-real-time flood mapping. The preliminary results in Bangladesh show that a propensity of flood risk change strongly depends on the temporal and spatial dynamics of exposure such as distributed population.

  3. Fire risk reduction through a community-based risk assessment: reflections from Makola Market, Accra, Ghana.

    PubMed

    Oteng-Ababio, Martin; Sarpong, Akwasi Owusu

    2015-07-01

    This paper explores the level of vulnerability to the hazard of fire that exists in Makola Market in Accra, Ghana, and assesses how this threat can be reduced through a community-based risk assessment. It examines the perceptions of both market-stall occupants and primary stakeholders regarding the hazard of fire, and analyses the availability of local assets (coping strategies) with which to address the challenge. Through an evaluation of past instances of fire, as well as in-depth key stakeholder interviews, field visits, and observations, the study produces a detailed hazard map of the market. It goes on to recommend that policymakers consider short-to-long-term interventions to reduce the degree of risk. By foregrounding the essence of holistic and integrated planning, the paper calls for the incorporation of disaster mitigation measures in the overall urban planning process and for the strict enforcement of relevant building and fire safety codes by responsible public agencies.

  4. Fire risk reduction through a community-based risk assessment: reflections from Makola Market, Accra, Ghana.

    PubMed

    Oteng-Ababio, Martin; Sarpong, Akwasi Owusu

    2015-07-01

    This paper explores the level of vulnerability to the hazard of fire that exists in Makola Market in Accra, Ghana, and assesses how this threat can be reduced through a community-based risk assessment. It examines the perceptions of both market-stall occupants and primary stakeholders regarding the hazard of fire, and analyses the availability of local assets (coping strategies) with which to address the challenge. Through an evaluation of past instances of fire, as well as in-depth key stakeholder interviews, field visits, and observations, the study produces a detailed hazard map of the market. It goes on to recommend that policymakers consider short-to-long-term interventions to reduce the degree of risk. By foregrounding the essence of holistic and integrated planning, the paper calls for the incorporation of disaster mitigation measures in the overall urban planning process and for the strict enforcement of relevant building and fire safety codes by responsible public agencies. PMID:25581394

  5. Relationship among Food-Safety Knowledge, Beliefs, and Risk-Reduction Behavior in University Students in Japan

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Takeda, Sayaka; Akamatsu, Rie; Horiguchi, Itsuko; Marui, Eiji

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To identify whether university students who have both food-safety knowledge and beliefs perform risk-reduction behaviors. Design: Cross-sectional research using a questionnaire that included food-safety knowledge, perceptions, risk-reduction behavior, stages for the selection of safer food based on the Transtheoretical Model, and…

  6. Fear of AIDS and Risk Reduction among Heroin-Addicted Female Street Prostitutes: Personal Interviews with 72 Southern California Subjects.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bellis, David J.

    1990-01-01

    Interviewed 72 heroin-addicted female street prostitutes and assessed fear of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), AIDS risk reduction behavior, and prostitutes' recommendations for AIDS risk reduction programs. Self-reported data showed that, although subjects were afraid of AIDS, irrationality produced by addiction compelled risky…

  7. Barriers to human immunodeficiency virus related risk reduction among male street prostitutes.

    PubMed

    Simon, P M; Morse, E V; Balson, P M; Osofsky, H J; Gaumer, H R

    1993-01-01

    Two hundred eleven male street prostitutes between the ages of 18 and 51 years were interviewed and tested for antibodies to the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Economic, social, and emotional barriers to the reduction of HIV-related risk behavior were examined within the context of several concepts present in the Health Belief Model (HBM). Three lifestyle factors were found to function as barriers to engaging in risk reduction behavior. Subjects who were more economically dependent on prostitution, perceived less control over the hustling encounter, and reported increased pleasure from sexual activity with their customers were more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior. Prostitutes' perception of the severity of HIV infection was not significantly associated with their risk behavior. Unexpected findings indicated that increases in perceived susceptibility to HIV and perceived benefit of condom use for HIV prevention were significantly related to increased risk-taking behavior. Practical applications of findings in the design and implementation of future HIV-related preventive health education programs are discussed. PMID:8491637

  8. Attitudes and practices of hemophilia care providers involved in HIV risk-reduction counseling.

    PubMed

    Meredith, K L; Hannan, J A; Green, T A; Wiley, S D

    1994-10-01

    Hemophilia physicians, nurses, and social workers attending a national conference were asked to complete a questionnaire assessing their attitudes and practices regarding HIV risk-reduction counseling. All of the 150 respondents reported recommending the use of condoms to their clients, but only two-thirds felt comfortable demonstrating a condom, while fewer could explain condom choices or how to make safe sex more pleasurable. Less than half questioned their clients about history of STDs, sexual practices, or level of sexual satisfaction. Those who devoted 50 percent or more time to HIV risk-reduction efforts reported being more complete in their assessment and more comfortable in their counseling role. Providers claimed it would help if they had more time (84%) and better skills (64%, especially nurses) for this practice. Because HIV prevention services in hemophilia are delivered by a team, further studies are required to determine the aggregate impact of their intervention on the client.

  9. Sustainable development through a gendered lens: climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Lewis, Nancy D

    2016-03-01

    The UN General Assembly has just adopted the post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda articulated in the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Achieving the SDGs will be furthered by the closer integration of the climate change adaptation (CCA) and disaster risk reduction (DRR) agendas. Gender provides us a valuable portal for considering this integration. Acknowledging that gender relaters to both women and men and that men and women experience climate variability and disasters differently, in this paper the role of women in both CCA and DRR is explored, shifting the focus from women as vulnerable victims to women as critical agents for change with respect to climate change mitigation and adaptation and reduction of disaster risks. Appropriately targeted interventions can also empower women and contribute to more just and inclusive sustainable development.

  10. Ongoing data from the breast cancer prevention trials: opportunity for breast cancer risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Vogel, Victor G

    2015-03-26

    Selective estrogen receptor modulators (SERMs) reduce the risk of recurrence of invasive breast cancer and the incidence of first breast cancers in women who are at increased risk. Multiple, randomized clinical trials have shown both the efficacy and safety of SERMs in reducing the risk of breast cancer. Long-term follow-up as long as 20 years in the randomized trials shows persistent efficacy with acceptable safety. Hormone replacement therapy given concurrently with tamoxifen abrogates its preventive effect, but women with atypical hyperplasia derive particular benefit from SERM therapy. Aromatase inhibitors also reduce the risk of developing invasive breast cancer, but the experience with them for risk reduction is limited to few trials. National organizations have made recommendations to use SERMs and aromatase inhibitors to reduce the risk of breast cancer in high-risk women and additional efforts should be made to increase their use in clinical practice, where the number of women needed to treat to prevent one case of breast cancer conforms to accepted standards of preventive medicine.

  11. Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) Special Case Study Report: Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) Program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kirsch, Paul J.; Hayes, Jane; Zelinski, Lillian

    2000-01-01

    This special case study report presents the Science and Engineering Technical Assessments (SETA) team's findings for exploring the correlation between the underlying models of Advanced Risk Reduction Tool (ARRT) relative to how it identifies, estimates, and integrates Independent Verification & Validation (IV&V) activities. The special case study was conducted under the provisions of SETA Contract Task Order (CTO) 15 and the approved technical approach documented in the CTO-15 Modification #1 Task Project Plan.

  12. Ethical Responsibility of Governance for Integrating Disaster Risk Reduction with Development

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parkash Gupta, Surya

    2015-04-01

    The development in the public as well as the private sectors is controlled and regulated, directly or indirectly by the governments at federal, provincial and local levels. If this development goes haphazard and unplanned, without due considerations to environmental constraints and potential hazards; it is likely to cause disasters or may get affected by disasters. Therefore, it becomes an ethical responsibility of the people involved in governance sector to integrate disaster risk reduction with development in their administrative territories through enforcement of appropriate policies, guidelines and regulatory mechanisms. Such mechanisms should address the social, scientific, economic, environmental, and legal requirements that play significant role in planning, implementation of developmental activities as well as disaster management. The paper focuses on defining the ethical responsibilities for the governance sector for integrating disaster risk reduction with development. It highlights the ethical issues with examples from two case studies, one from the Uttarakhand state and the other Odhisa state in India. The case studies illustrates how does it make a difference in disaster risk reduction if the governments own or do not own ethical responsibilities. The paper considers two major disaster events, flash floods in Uttarakhand state and Cyclone Phailin in Odhisa state, that happened during the year 2013. The study points out that it makes a great difference in terms of consequences and response to disasters when ethical responsibilities are owned by the governance sector. The papers attempts to define these ethical responsibilities for integrating disaster risk reduction with development so that the governments can be held accountable for their acts or non-actions.

  13. THE LANGUAGE OF BLACK GAY MEN’S SEXUAL BEHAVIOR: IMPLICATIONS FOR AIDS RISK REDUCTION

    PubMed Central

    Mays, Vickie M.; Cochran, Susan D.; Bellinger, George; Smith, Robert G.; Henley, Nancy; Daniels, Marlon; Tibbits, Thomas; Victorianne, Gregory D.; Osei, Olu Kwasi; Birt, Darryl K.

    2011-01-01

    The development of appropriate AIDS risk reduction interventions targeted at African-American gay men could be aided by an awareness of their terminology for specific sexual behaviors and types of sexual encounters. This paper explores similarities and differences between the HIV-related sexual language of Black and White gay men. While much of the vernacular is shared, differences in some terms and greater or lesser emphasis on others are apparent. PMID:25382870

  14. Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas.

    PubMed

    Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation.

  15. Risk reduction activities for an F-1-based advanced booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crocker, A. M.; Doering, K. B.; Cook, S. A.; Meadows, R. G.; Lariviere, B. W.; Bachtel, F. D.

    For NASA's Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) procurement, Dynetics, Inc. and Pratt & Whitney Rocketdyne (PWR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's goal of enabling competition on an affordable booster that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team will apply state-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. ABEDRR will use NASA test facilities to perform full-scale F-1 gas generator and powerpack hot-fire test campaigns for engine risk reduction. Dynetics will also fabricate and test a tank assembly to verify the structural design. The Dynetics Team is partnered with NASA through Space Act Agreements (SAAs) to maximize the expertise and capabilities applied to ABEDRR.

  16. Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas.

    PubMed

    Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

  17. Social Participation and Disaster Risk Reduction Behaviors in Tsunami Prone Areas

    PubMed Central

    Witvorapong, Nopphol; Muttarak, Raya; Pothisiri, Wiraporn

    2015-01-01

    This paper examines the relationships between social participation and disaster risk reduction actions. A survey of 557 households in tsunami prone areas in Phang Nga, Thailand was conducted following the 2012 Indian Ocean earthquakes. We use a multivariate probit model to jointly estimate the likelihood of undertaking three responses to earthquake and tsunami hazards (namely, (1) following disaster-related news closely, (2) preparing emergency kits and/or having a family emergency plan, and (3) having an intention to migrate) and community participation. We find that those who experienced losses from the 2004 tsunami are more likely to participate in community activities and respond to earthquake hazards. Compared to men, women are more likely to prepare emergency kits and/or have an emergency plan and have a greater intention to migrate. Living in a community with a higher proportion of women with tertiary education increases the probability of engaging in community activities and carrying out disaster risk reduction measures. Individuals who participate in village-based activities are 5.2% more likely to undertake all three risk reduction actions compared to those not engaging in community activities. This implies that encouraging participation in community activities can have positive externalities in disaster mitigation. PMID:26153891

  18. [Amphetamine use by truck drivers on highways of Sao Paulo State: a risk for the occurrence of traffic accidents?].

    PubMed

    Takitane, Juliana; de Oliveira, Lucio Garcia; Endo, Ligia Góes; de Oliveira, Keziah Cristina Barbosa Gruber; Muñoz, Daniel Romero; Yonamine, Mauricio; Leyton, Vilma

    2013-05-01

    The use of amphetamines in Brazil is common among truck drivers, which may be an important factor in the occurrence of traffic accidents. This article seeks to estimate the prevalence of amphetamine use among truck drivers. Drivers (N = 134) were stopped on two different highways in Sao Paulo state and they were asked to answer a questionnaire and provide a urine sample for toxicological analysis. All data were analyzed on Stata 8.0. All participants were males with low levels of schooling, whose mean age was 40.8 years. The presence of amphetamines was detected in 10.8% of all urine samples collected, being commonly justified in order to make truck drivers able to maintain their state of awareness. Amphetamine use was detected among truck drivers on Sao Paulo highways. The problem is that when the stimulant effects wear off, sleepiness due to sleep deprivation reduces concentration and good driver performance, making drivers vulnerable to traffic accidents and the related effects.

  19. Reducing risks to health and wellbeing at mass gatherings: the role of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction.

    PubMed

    Aitsi-Selmi, Amina; Murray, Virginia; Heymann, David; McCloskey, Brian; Azhar, Esam I; Petersen, Eskild; Zumla, Alimuddin; Dar, Osman

    2016-06-01

    Mass gatherings of people at religious pilgrimages and sporting events are linked to numerous health hazards, including the transmission of infectious diseases, physical injuries, and an impact on local and global health systems and services. As with other forms of disaster, mass gathering-related disasters are the product of the management of different hazards, levels of exposure, and vulnerability of the population and environment, and require comprehensive risk management that looks beyond single hazards and response. Incorporating an all-hazard, prevention-driven, evidence-based approach that is multisectoral and multidisciplinary is strongly advocated by the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030. This paper reviews some of the broader impacts of mass gatherings, the opportunity for concerted action across policy sectors and scientific disciplines offered by the year 2015 (including through the Sendai Framework), and the elements of a 21(st) century approach to mass gatherings. PMID:27062983

  20. Mainstreaming risk reduction in urban planning and housing: a challenge for international aid organisations.

    PubMed

    Wamsler, Christine

    2006-06-01

    The effects of 'natural' disasters in cities can be worse than in other environments, with poor and marginalised urban communities in the developing world being most at risk. To avoid post-disaster destruction and the forced eviction of these communities, proactive and preventive urban planning, including housing, is required. This paper examines current perceptions and practices within international aid organisations regarding the existing and potential roles of urban planning as a tool for reducing disaster risk. It reveals that urban planning confronts many of the generic challenges to mainstreaming risk reduction in development planning. However, it faces additional barriers. The main reasons for the identified lack of integration of urban planning and risk reduction are, first, the marginal position of both fields within international aid organisations, and second, an incompatibility between the respective professional disciplines. To achieve better integration, a conceptual shift from conventional to non-traditional urban planning is proposed. This paper suggests related operative measures and initiatives to achieve this change. PMID:16689916

  1. Development and use of role model stories in a community level HIV risk reduction intervention.

    PubMed

    Corby, N H; Enguídanos, S M; Kay, L S

    1996-01-01

    A theory-based HIV prevention intervention was implemented as part of a five-city AIDS Community Demonstration Project for the development and testing of a community-level intervention to reduce AIDS risk among historically underserved groups. This intervention employed written material containing stories of risk-reducing experiences of members of the priority populations, in this case, injecting drug users, their female sex partners, and female sex workers. These materials were distributed to members of these populations by their peers, volunteers from the population who were trained to deliver social reinforcement for interest in personal risk reduction and the materials. The participation of the priority populations in the development and implementation of the intervention was designed to increase the credibility of the intervention and the acceptance of the message. The techniques involved in developing role-model stories are described in this paper.

  2. Reduction of earthquake risk in the united states: Bridging the gap between research and practice

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hays, W.W.

    1998-01-01

    Continuing efforts under the auspices of the National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program are under way to improve earthquake risk assessment and risk management in earthquake-prone regions of Alaska, California, Nevada, Washington, Oregon, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, and Idaho, the New Madrid and Wabash Valley seismic zones in the central United States, the southeastern and northeastern United States, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Guam, and Hawaii. Geologists, geophysicists, seismologists, architects, engineers, urban planners, emergency managers, health care specialists, and policymakers are having to work at the margins of their disciplines to bridge the gap between research and practice and to provide a social, technical, administrative, political, legal, and economic basis for changing public policies and professional practices in communities where the earthquake risk is unacceptable. ?? 1998 IEEE.

  3. Alcoholism Risk Reduction in France: A Modernised Approach Related to Alcohol Misuse Disorders

    PubMed Central

    Brousse, Georges; Bendimerad, Patrick; de Chazeron, Ingrid; Llorca, Pierre Michel; Perney, Pascal; Dematteis, Maurice

    2014-01-01

    During many years in France, risk reduction strategies for substance abuse concerned prevention strategies in the general population or interventions near users of illicit substances. In this spirit, the reduction of consumption only concerned opiate addicts. With regard to alcohol, the prevention messages relative to controlled consumption were difficult to transmit because of the importance of this product in the culture of the country. In addition, methods of treatment of alcoholism rested on the dogma of abstinence. Several factors have recently led to an evolution in the treatment of alcohol use disorders integrating the reduction of consumption in strategies. Strategies for reducing consumption should aim for consumption below recommended thresholds (two drinks per day for women, three for the men) or, at least, in that direction. It must also be supported by pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy, which offer possibilities. Failure to manage reduction will allow the goals to be revisited and to reconsider abstinence. Finally this evolution or revolution is a new paradigm carried in particular by a pragmatic approach of the disease and new treatments. The aims of this article are to give elements of comprehension relating to the evolution of the practices in France in prevention and treatment of alcohol use disorders and in particular with regard to the reduction of consumption. PMID:25402563

  4. NASA's New Approach for Evaluating Risk Reduction Due to Space Shuttle Upgrades

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Safie, Fayssal M.; Belyeu, Rebecca L.

    2000-01-01

    As part of NASA's intensive effort to incorporate quantitative risk assessment (QRA) tools in the Agency's decision-making process concerning Space Shuttle risk, NASA has developed a powerful risk assessment tool called the Quantitative Risk Assessment System (QRAS). The QRAS is a tool designed to estimate Space Shuttle risk and evaluate Space Shuttle upgrades. This paper presents an overview of the QRAS with focus on its application for evaluating the risk reduction due to proposed Space Shuttle upgrades. The application includes a case study from the Space Shuttle main engine (SSME). The QRAS overview section of the paper includes the QRAS development process, the technical approach to model development, the QRA quantification methods and techniques, and observations concerning the complex modeling involved in QRAS. The application section of the paper describes a practical case study using QRAS models for evaluating critical Space Shuttle Program upgrades, specifically a proposed SSME nozzle upgrade. This paper presents the method for evaluating the proposed upgrade by comparing the current nozzle (old design with well-established probabilistic models) to the channel wall nozzle (new design at the preliminary design level).

  5. Assessing urban potential flooding risk and identifying effective risk-reduction measures.

    PubMed

    Cherqui, Frédéric; Belmeziti, Ali; Granger, Damien; Sourdril, Antoine; Le Gauffre, Pascal

    2015-05-01

    Flood protection is one of the traditional functions of any drainage system, and it remains a major issue in many cities because of economic and health impact. Heavy rain flooding has been well studied and existing simulation software can be used to predict and improve level of protection. However, simulating minor flooding remains highly complex, due to the numerous possible causes related to operational deficiencies or negligent behaviour. According to the literature, causes of blockages vary widely from one case to another: it is impossible to provide utility managers with effective recommendations on how to improve the level of protection. It is therefore vital to analyse each context in order to define an appropriate strategy. Here we propose a method to represent and assess the flooding risk, using GIS and data gathered during operation and maintenance. Our method also identifies potential management responses. The approach proposed aims to provide decision makers with clear and comprehensible information. Our method has been successfully applied to the Urban Community of Bordeaux (France) on 4895 interventions related to flooding recorded during the 2009-2011 period. Results have shown the relative importance of different issues, such as human behaviour (grease, etc.) or operational deficiencies (roots, etc.), and lead to identify corrective and proactive. This study also confirms that blockages are not always directly due to the network itself and its deterioration. Many causes depend on environmental and operating conditions on the network and often require collaboration between municipal departments in charge of roads, green spaces, etc.

  6. Behavior Change and Health-Related Interventions for Heterosexual Risk Reduction Among Drug Users

    PubMed Central

    SEMAAN, SALAAM; JARLAIS, DON C. DES; MALOW, ROB

    2007-01-01

    Prevention of heterosexual transmission of HIV between and from drug users is important for controlling the local and global HIV heterosexual epidemic. Sex risk reduction interventions and health-related interventions are important for reducing the sex risk behaviors of drug users. Sex risk reduction interventions address individual-level, peer-level, and structural-level determinants of risk reduction. Health-related interventions include HIV counseling and testing, prevention and treatment of sexually transmitted diseases, and delivery of highly active antiretroviral therapy. It is important to adapt effective interventions implemented in resource-rich countries to the realities of the resource-constrained settings and to address relevant contextual factors. RESUMEN Il est important de prévenir la transmission hétérosexuelle du VIH à partir des usagers de drogue pour contrôler l’épidémie hétérosexuelle locale et mondiale de VIH. Des interventions ciblant à la fois la réduction de risque sexuel et la santé des usagers de drogue sont nécessaires. Les interventions de réduction de risque sexuel prennent en compte le niveau individuel, le niveau des pairs et celui des déterminants structurels de la réduction des risques. Les interventions visant l’amélioration de la santé comprennent le conseil et le dépistage du VIH, la prévention et le traitement des infections sexuellement transmissibles et la prescription d’antirétroviraux. Il est important d’adapter les interventions efficaces mises en place dans les pays riches aux réalités des contextes de pays à ressources limitées et de tenir compte des facteurs contextuels pertinents. PMID:17002987

  7. Decision-making using absolute cardiovascular risk reduction and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios: a case study

    PubMed Central

    Ker, J A; Oosthuizen, H; Rheeder, P

    2008-01-01

    Summary Background Many clinical guidelines have adopted a multifactorial cardiovascular risk assessment to identify high-risk individuals for treatment. The Framingham risk chart is a widely used risk engine to calculate the absolute cardiovascular risk of an individual. Cost-effective analyses are typically used to evaluate therapeutic strategies, but it is more problematic for a clinician when faced with alternative therapeutic strategies to calculate cost effectiveness. Aim We used a single simulated-patient model to explore the effect of different drug treatments on the calculated absolute cardiovascular risk. Methods The Framingham risk score was calculated on a hypothetical patient, and drug treatment was initiated. After every drug introduced, the score was recalculated. Single-exit pricing of the various drugs in South Africa was used to calculate the cost of reducing predicted cardiovascular risk. Results The cost-effective ratio of an antihypertensive treatment strategy was calculated to be R21.35 per percentage of risk reduction. That of a statin treatment strategy was R22.93 per percentage of risk reduction. Using a high-dose statin, the cost-effective ratio was R12.81 per percentage of risk reduction. Combining the antihypertensive and statin strategy demonstrated a cost-effective ratio of R23.84 per percentage of risk reduction. A combination of several drugs enabled the hypothetical patient to reduce the risk to 14% at a cost-effective ratio of R17.18 per percentage of risk reduction. Conclusion This model demonstrates a method to compare different therapeutic strategies to reduce cardiovascular risk with their cost-effective ratios. PMID:18516355

  8. Mechanisms of Partner Violence Reduction in a Group HIV-Risk Intervention for Hispanic Women.

    PubMed

    McCabe, Brian E; Gonzalez-Guarda, Rosa M; Peragallo, Nilda P; Mitrani, Victoria B

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to test whether partner communication about HIV and/or alcohol intoxication mediated reductions in intimate partner violence (IPV) in SEPA (Salud [health], Educación [education], Promoción [promotion], y [and] Autocuidado [self-care]), a culturally specific, theoretically based group HIV-risk reduction intervention for Hispanic women. SEPA had five sessions covering sexually transmitted infection (STI)/HIV prevention, partner communication, condom negotiation and use, and IPV. SEPA reduced IPV and alcohol intoxication, and improved partner communication compared with controls in a randomized trial with adult U.S. Hispanic women (SEPA, n = 274; delayed intervention control, n = 274) who completed structured interviews at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months post-baseline. Parallel process latent growth curve models indicated that partner communication about HIV mediated the reduction in male-to-female IPV in SEPA, B = -0.78, SE = 0.14, p< .001, but alcohol intoxication did not, B = -0.15, SE = 0.19, p = .431. Male-to-female IPV mediated the intervention effect on female-to-male IPV, B = -1.21, SE = 0.24, p< .001. Skills building strategies originally designed to enhance women's communication with their partners about sexual risk behaviors also worked to reduce male-to-female IPV, which in turn reduced female-to-male IPV. These strategies could be integrated into other types of health promotion interventions. PMID:25805845

  9. Mechanisms of Partner Violence Reduction in a Group HIV-Risk Intervention for Hispanic Women.

    PubMed

    McCabe, Brian E; Gonzalez-Guarda, Rosa M; Peragallo, Nilda P; Mitrani, Victoria B

    2016-08-01

    The objective of this study was to test whether partner communication about HIV and/or alcohol intoxication mediated reductions in intimate partner violence (IPV) in SEPA (Salud [health], Educación [education], Promoción [promotion], y [and] Autocuidado [self-care]), a culturally specific, theoretically based group HIV-risk reduction intervention for Hispanic women. SEPA had five sessions covering sexually transmitted infection (STI)/HIV prevention, partner communication, condom negotiation and use, and IPV. SEPA reduced IPV and alcohol intoxication, and improved partner communication compared with controls in a randomized trial with adult U.S. Hispanic women (SEPA, n = 274; delayed intervention control, n = 274) who completed structured interviews at baseline and 3, 6, and 12 months post-baseline. Parallel process latent growth curve models indicated that partner communication about HIV mediated the reduction in male-to-female IPV in SEPA, B = -0.78, SE = 0.14, p< .001, but alcohol intoxication did not, B = -0.15, SE = 0.19, p = .431. Male-to-female IPV mediated the intervention effect on female-to-male IPV, B = -1.21, SE = 0.24, p< .001. Skills building strategies originally designed to enhance women's communication with their partners about sexual risk behaviors also worked to reduce male-to-female IPV, which in turn reduced female-to-male IPV. These strategies could be integrated into other types of health promotion interventions.

  10. SY 09-1 LOWERING SALT INTAKE AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK REDUCTION: WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?

    PubMed

    Cappuccio, Francesco

    2016-09-01

    The evidence. Salt (i.e. sodium chloride) is causally related to blood pressure (BP). The higher the salt intake, the higher the BP, an effect seen since birth. A small and sustained reduction in salt intake causes a fall in BP. The evidence from controlled studies, small and large, short and long, all agree on the following: (1) salt intake is one of the major determinants of BP in populations and individuals; (2) a reduction in salt intake causes a dose-dependent reduction in BP - the lower the salt the lower the BP; (3) the effect is seen in both sexes, in people of all ages and ethnic groups, and with all starting BPs. High BP causes strokes and heart attacks and a reduction in BP is associated with their reduction. A reduction in salt intake reduces BP, stroke and other cardiovascular events, including chronic kidney disease, by as much as 23% (i.e. 1.25 M deaths worldwide). The effect is related to the size of the fall in BP, the bigger the fall in BP the greater the benefits. It is therefore conceivable that a moderate reduction in salt intake in a population would help reduce stroke, heart attacks and vascular kidney disease through BP reduction.The preventive imperative. In a population, there is a log-linear (exponential) relationship between the levels of BP (that are normally distributed) and the risk of developing a cardiovascular event, especially stroke. Whilst the relative risk of having a stroke is the highest in the upper level of BP (i.e. the hypertensives), the attributable events in the population (absolute risk) are fewer that those that would be attributable to the moderate relative risk of moderate levels of BP amongst the majority (i.e. the normotensives). Therefore, a shift in the entire BP distribution, even of a moderate amount, would avert a greater number of events than just the 'treatment' of those in the extreme end of the BP distribution. Population salt reduction strategies aim at exactly this.The economic imperative. All

  11. SY 09-1 LOWERING SALT INTAKE AND CARDIOVASCULAR RISK REDUCTION: WHAT IS THE EVIDENCE?

    PubMed

    Cappuccio, Francesco

    2016-09-01

    The evidence. Salt (i.e. sodium chloride) is causally related to blood pressure (BP). The higher the salt intake, the higher the BP, an effect seen since birth. A small and sustained reduction in salt intake causes a fall in BP. The evidence from controlled studies, small and large, short and long, all agree on the following: (1) salt intake is one of the major determinants of BP in populations and individuals; (2) a reduction in salt intake causes a dose-dependent reduction in BP - the lower the salt the lower the BP; (3) the effect is seen in both sexes, in people of all ages and ethnic groups, and with all starting BPs. High BP causes strokes and heart attacks and a reduction in BP is associated with their reduction. A reduction in salt intake reduces BP, stroke and other cardiovascular events, including chronic kidney disease, by as much as 23% (i.e. 1.25 M deaths worldwide). The effect is related to the size of the fall in BP, the bigger the fall in BP the greater the benefits. It is therefore conceivable that a moderate reduction in salt intake in a population would help reduce stroke, heart attacks and vascular kidney disease through BP reduction.The preventive imperative. In a population, there is a log-linear (exponential) relationship between the levels of BP (that are normally distributed) and the risk of developing a cardiovascular event, especially stroke. Whilst the relative risk of having a stroke is the highest in the upper level of BP (i.e. the hypertensives), the attributable events in the population (absolute risk) are fewer that those that would be attributable to the moderate relative risk of moderate levels of BP amongst the majority (i.e. the normotensives). Therefore, a shift in the entire BP distribution, even of a moderate amount, would avert a greater number of events than just the 'treatment' of those in the extreme end of the BP distribution. Population salt reduction strategies aim at exactly this.The economic imperative. All

  12. Update on Risk Reduction Activities for a Liquid Advanced Booster for NASA's Space Launch System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crocker, Andrew M.; Doering, Kimberly B; Meadows, Robert G.; Lariviere, Brian W.; Graham, Jerry B.

    2015-01-01

    The stated goals of NASA's Research Announcement for the Space Launch System (SLS) Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction (ABEDRR) are to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the evolved capabilities of SLS; and enable competition by mitigating targeted Advanced Booster risks to enhance SLS affordability. Dynetics, Inc. and Aerojet Rocketdyne (AR) formed a team to offer a wide-ranging set of risk reduction activities and full-scale, system-level demonstrations that support NASA's ABEDRR goals. For NASA's SLS ABEDRR procurement, Dynetics and AR formed a team to offer a series of full-scale risk mitigation hardware demonstrations for an affordable booster approach that meets the evolved capabilities of the SLS. To establish a basis for the risk reduction activities, the Dynetics Team developed a booster design that takes advantage of the flight-proven Apollo-Saturn F-1. Using NASA's vehicle assumptions for the SLS Block 2, a two-engine, F-1-based booster design delivers 150 mT (331 klbm) payload to LEO, 20 mT (44 klbm) above NASA's requirements. This enables a low-cost, robust approach to structural design. During the ABEDRR effort, the Dynetics Team has modified proven Apollo-Saturn components and subsystems to improve affordability and reliability (e.g., reduce parts counts, touch labor, or use lower cost manufacturing processes and materials). The team has built hardware to validate production costs and completed tests to demonstrate it can meet performance requirements. State-of-the-art manufacturing and processing techniques have been applied to the heritage F-1, resulting in a low recurring cost engine while retaining the benefits of Apollo-era experience. NASA test facilities have been used to perform low-cost risk-reduction engine testing. In early 2014, NASA and the Dynetics Team agreed to move additional large liquid oxygen/kerosene engine work under Dynetics' ABEDRR contract. Also led by AR, the

  13. Remote Imaging of Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Entry Heating Risk Reduction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schuster, David M.; Horvath, Thomas J.; Schwartz, Richard J.

    2016-01-01

    A Measure of Performance (MOP) identified with an Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1) Multi- Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Flight Test Objective (FTO) (OFT1.091) specified an observation during reentry though external ground-based or airborne assets with thermal detection capabilities. The objective of this FTO was to be met with onboard Developmental Flight Instrumentation (DFI), but the MOP for external observation was intended to provide complementary quantitative data and serve as a risk reduction in the event of anomalous DFI behavior (or failure). Mr. Gavin Mendeck, the Entry, Descent, and Landing (EDL) Phase Engineer for the MPCV Program (Vehicle Integration Office/Systems & Mission Integration) requested a risk-reduction assessment from the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) to determine whether quantitative imagery could be obtained from remote aerial assets to support the external observation MOP. If so, then a viable path forward was to be determined, risks identified, and an observation pursued. If not, then the MOP for external observation was to be eliminated.

  14. Risk reduction treatment of psychopathy and applications to mentally disordered offenders.

    PubMed

    Wong, Stephen C P; Olver, Mark E

    2015-06-01

    Therapeutic nihilism on treating psychopathy is widespread and is largely based on many outdated and poorly designed studies. Important recent advances have been made in assessing psychopathy and recidivism risks, as well as in offender rehabilitation to reduce reoffending, all of which are now well supported by a considerable literature based on credible empirical research. A 2-component model to guide risk reduction treatment of psychopathy has been proposed based on the integration of key points from the 3 bodies of literature. Treatment programs in line with the model have been in operation, and the results of early outcome evaluations are encouraging. Important advances also have been made in understanding the possible etiology of mentally disordered offenders with schizophrenia and history of criminality and violence, some with significant features of psychopathy. This article presents a review of recent research on risk reduction treatment of psychopathy with the additional aim to extend the research to the treatment of mentally disordered offenders with schizophrenia, violence, and psychopathy. PMID:25997606

  15. Risk reduction in a changing insurance climate: examples from the US and UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Horn, Diane; McShane, Michael

    2015-04-01

    Coastal cities face a range of increasingly severe challenges as sea level rises, and adaptation to future flood risk will require more than structural defences. Many cities will not be able to rely solely on engineering structures for protection and will need to develop a suite of policy responses to increase their resilience to impacts of rising sea level. Insurance can be used as a risk-sharing mechanism to encourage adaptation to sea level rise, using pricing or restrictions on availability of cover to discourage new development in flood risk areas or to encourage the uptake of flood resilience measures. We draw on flood insurance policy lessons learned from the United States and the United Kingdom to propose risk-sharing among private insurers/reinsurers, government, and policyholders to alleviate major issues of the current programs, while still maintaining a holistic approach to managing flood risk. The UK and the US are almost polar opposites in the way flood insurance is implemented. Flood insurance in the US is fully public and in the UK fully private; however, in both countries the participants feel that the established system is unsustainable. In the US, flood coverage is excluded from property policies provided by private insurers, and is only available through the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), with the federal government acting as insurer of last resort. Flood risk reduction has been part of the NFIP remit since the introduction of the program in 1968. Following massive payments for flood claims related primarily to Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy, the NFIP is approximately 26 billion in debt, prompting calls to bring private insurance back into the flood insurance business. Two major Congressional modifications to the NFIP in 2012 and 2014 have pushed the contradictory goals of fully risk-based, yet affordable premiums. The private market has not been significantly involved in a risk-bearing role, but that is changing as private insurers

  16. The risk of needle stick accidents during surgical procedures: HIV-1 viral load in blood and bone marrow.

    PubMed

    Regez, Rosa M; Kleipool, Arthur E; Speekenbrink, Ron G; Frissen, P H Jos

    2005-10-01

    Health-care workers are at risk to acquire HIV through occupational exposure to blood of HIV-infected patients. The mean risk after a percutaneous exposure is approximately 0.3%. A large inoculum and a source patient with a high plasma viral load increases the transmission risk. To ensure the safety of the operating team, we try to reduce HIV viral load in plasma prior to high-risk interventions (cardiothoracic and orthopaedic surgery). However, in 15.7% of the exposures occurring in the operating room, the possible source material is bone marrow. To make more accurate exposure risk assessments, we measured HIV-1 RNA in both plasma and bone marrow of five HIV-infected patients undergoing surgery. We found that the plasma viral load was not different from the viral load in bone marrow.

  17. Decreasing number of young licence holders and reduced number of accidents. A description of trends in Sweden.

    PubMed

    Murray, Asa

    2003-11-01

    The following study compares rates of licence holders and rates of car accidents in two age cohorts born in Sweden in 1972 and 1977, respectively. The research material consists of all accidents with injury which these young people have been involved in as car drivers at age 16-21. The periods concerned are 1988-1993 and 1993-1998, respectively. In the respective periods altogether 2082 and 1453 car accidents leading to injury were recorded. The results show a lower rate of licence holders and a lower rate of car accidents in the later age cohort. Particularly the rate of fatal accidents and accidents leading to serious injury was lower. Comparing the earlier with the later age cohort, the reduction of accidents was greatest in the most densely built-up counties of Sweden and in the groups with the highest risk, namely those age and socio-economic groups who had the highest rate of fatalities and accidents leading to serious injury. Factors behind the decrease in the rates of licence holders and the rates of car accidents are discussed. Recession in the economy and less interest in car driving among young people are factors which are suggested as explanations.

  18. Coronary artery disease risk reduction in HIV-infected persons: a comparative analysis.

    PubMed

    Okeke, Nwora Lance; Chin, Tammy; Clement, Meredith; Chow, Shein-Chung; Hicks, Charles B

    2016-01-01

    Despite an increased risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) in persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), few data are available on primary prevention of CAD in this population. In this retrospective cohort study, HIV-infected patients treated in an academic medical center HIV Specialty Clinic between 1996 and 2010 were matched by age, gender, and ethnicity to a cohort of presumed uninfected persons followed in an academic medical center Internal Medicine primary care clinic. We compared CAD primary prevention care practices between the two clinics, including use of aspirin, HMG-CoA reductase inhibitors ("statins"), and anti-hypertensive drugs. CAD risk between the two groups was assessed with 10-year Framingham CAD risk scores. In the comparative analysis, 890 HIV-infected persons were compared to 807 controls. Ten-year Framingham CAD Risk Scores were similar in the two groups (median, 3; interquartile range [IQR], 0-5). After adjusting for relevant risk factors, HIV-infected persons were less likely to be prescribed aspirin (odds ratio [OR] 0.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.40-0.71), statins (OR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.53-0.92), and anti-hypertensive drugs (OR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.50-0.79) than persons in the control group. In summary, when compared to demographically similar uninfected persons, HIV-infected persons treated in an HIV specialty clinic were less likely to be prescribed medications appropriate for CAD risk reduction. Improving primary preventative CAD care in HIV specialty clinic populations is an important step toward diminishing risk of heart disease in HIV-infected persons.

  19. Are decreases in drug use risk associated with reductions in HIV sex risk behaviors among adults in an urban hospital primary care setting?

    PubMed

    Walter, Angela Wangari; Cheng, Debbie M; Lloyd-Travaglini, Christine A; Samet, Jeffrey H; Bernstein, Judith; Saitz, Richard

    2016-12-01

    Drug use is associated with increased sexual risk behaviors. We examined whether decreases in drug use risk are associated with reduction in HIV-related sex risk behaviors among adults. Data was from a cohort of participants (n = 574) identified by drug use screening in a randomized trial of brief intervention for drug use in an urban primary care setting. Inverse probability of treatment weighted (IPTW) logistic regression models were used to examine the relationship between decreases in drug use risk and sex-related HIV risk behavior reduction from study entry to six months. Weights were derived from propensity score modeling of decreases in drug use risk as a function of potential confounders. Thirty seven percent of the study participants (213/574) reported a decrease in drug use risk, and 7% (33/505) reported decreased sex-related HIV risk behavior at the six-month follow-up point. We did not detect a difference in reduction of risky sexual behaviors for those who decreased drug use risk (unadjusted: OR 1.32, 95% CI 0.65-2.70; adjusted OR [AOR] 1.12, 95% CI 0.54-2.36). Adults who screened positive for high drug use risk had greater odds of reducing sex risk behavior in unadjusted analyses OR 3.71, 95% CI 1.81-7.60; but the results were not significant after adjusting for confounding AOR 2.50, 95% CI 0.85-7.30). In this primary care population, reductions in HIV sex risk behaviors have complex etiologies and reductions in drug use risk do not appear to be an independent predictor of them. PMID:27570734

  20. Concurrent administration of sexual assault prevention and risk reduction programming: outcomes for women.

    PubMed

    Gidycz, Christine A; Orchowski, Lindsay M; Probst, Danielle R; Edwards, Katie M; Murphy, Megan; Tansill, Erin

    2015-06-01

    The present study describes the 4- and 7-month postintervention outcomes of a sexual assault risk reduction program for women, which was part of an evaluation that included a prevention program for men. Relative to the control group, participants evidenced more relational sexual assertiveness and self-protective behavior, and were more likely to indicate that they utilized active verbal and physical self-defense strategies. Whether or not women experienced subsequent victimization did not differ between groups. Relative to control group women who were victimized, program participants who were victimized between the 4- and 7-month follow-up blamed the perpetrator more and evidenced less self-blame. PMID:25845615

  1. [Assessment and reduction of risk of cardiac complications of noncardiac surgery].

    PubMed

    Sumin, A N

    2014-01-01

    One of actual problems of modern cardiology is assessment and correction of risk of cardiac complications of noncardiac surgery. Recommendations on this issue propose reduction of preoperative examination and wide use of drug therapy, primarily statins and β-blockers. However, new data accumulated in recent years, as well as the recognition of scientific inconsistency of the DECREASE research series, force a new outlook at the problem. In this review in light of new facts the following important issues of perioperative medicine are discussed: administration of β-blockers and statins, volume of preoperative cardiac examination, value of preventive myocardial revascularization. PMID:25464615

  2. Short and long term efficiencies of debris risk reduction measures: Application to a European LEO mission

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lang, T.; Kervarc, R.; Bertrand, S.; Carle, P.; Donath, T.; Destefanis, R.; Grassi, L.; Tiboldo, F.; Schäfer, F.; Kempf, S.; Gelhaus, J.

    2015-01-01

    Recent numerical studies indicate that the low Earth orbit (LEO) debris environment has reached a point such that even if no further space launches were conducted, the Earth satellite population would remain relatively constant for only the next 50 years or so. Beyond that, the debris population would begin to increase noticeably, due to the production of collisional debris (Liou and Johnson, 2008). Measures to be enforced play thus a major role to preserve an acceptable space mission risk and ensure sustainable space activities. The identification of such measures and the quantification of their efficiency over time for LEO missions is of prime concern in the decision-making process, as it has been investigated for the last few decades by the Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (IADC). This paper addresses the final results of a generic methodology and the characteristics of a tool developed to assess the efficiency of the risk reduction measures identified for the Sentinel-1 (S1) mission. This work is performed as part of the 34-month P2-ROTECT project (Prediction, Protection & Reduction of OrbiTal Exposure to Collision Threats), funded by the European Union within the Seventh Framework Programme. Three ways of risk reduction have been investigated, both in short and long-term, namely: better satellite protection, better conjunction prediction, and cleaner environment. According to our assumptions, the S1 mission vulnerability evaluations in the long term (from 2093 to 2100) show that full compliance to the mitigation measures leads to a situation twice safer than that induced by an active debris removal of 5 objects per year in a MASTER2009 Business-As-Usual context. Because these measures have visible risk reduction effects in the long term, complementary measures with short response time are also studied. In the short term (from 2013 to 2020), a better prediction of the conjunctions is more efficient than protecting the satellite S1 itself. By

  3. SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario--Executive Summary and Introduction: Chapter A in The SAFRR (Science Application for Risk Reduction) Tsunami Scenario

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Ross, Stephanie L.; Jones, Lucile M.; Miller, Kevin; Porter, Keith A.; Wein, Anne; Wilson, Rick I.; Bahng, Bohyun; Barberopoulou, Aggeliki; Borrero, Jose C.; Brosnan, Deborah M.; Bwarie, John T.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, Laurie A.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Knight, William R.; Long, Kate; Lynett, Patrick; Mortensen, Carl E.; Nicolsky, Dmitry J.; Perry, Suzanne C.; Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Real, Charles R.; Ryan, Kenneth; Suleimani, Elena; Thio, Hong Kie; Titov, Vasily V.; Whitmore, Paul M.; Wood, Nathan J.

    2013-01-01

    The Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) tsunami scenario depicts a hypothetical but plausible tsunami created by an earthquake offshore from the Alaska Peninsula and its impacts on the California coast. The tsunami scenario is a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the California Geological Survey, the California Governor’s Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), other Federal, State, County, and local agencies, private companies, and academic and other institutions. This document presents evidence for past tsunamis, the scientific basis for the source, likely inundation areas, current velocities in key ports and harbors, physical damage and repair costs, economic consequences, environmental and ecological impacts, social vulnerability, emergency management and evacuation challenges, and policy implications for California associated with this hypothetical tsunami. We also discuss ongoing mitigation efforts by the State of California and new communication products. The intended users are those who need to make mitigation decisions before future tsunamis, and those who will need to make rapid decisions during tsunami events. The results of the tsunami scenario will help managers understand the context and consequences of their decisions and how they may improve preparedness and response. An evaluation component will assess the effectiveness of the scenario process for target stakeholders in a separate report to improve similar efforts in the future.

  4. [Skateboard and rollerskate accidents].

    PubMed

    Lohmann, M; Petersen, A O; Pedersen, O D

    1990-05-28

    The increasing popularity of skateboards and rollerskates has resulted in an increased number of contacts with the casualty department in Denmark after accidents. As part of the Danish share in the EHLASS project (European Home and Leisure Surveillance System), 120,000 consecutive contacts with the casualty departments were reviewed. Out of these 516 were due to accidents with skateboards and rollerskates (181/335). A total of 194 of these injuries (38%) were fractures and 80% of these were in the upper limbs. Twenty fractures required reposition under general anaesthesia and two required osteosynthesis. Nine patients were admitted for observation for concussion. One patient had sustained rupture of the spleen and splenectomy was necessary. A total of 44 patients were admitted. None of the 516 patients had employed protective equipment on the injured region. Considerable reduction in the number of injuries could probably be produced by employment of suitable protective equipment.

  5. An effective HIV risk-reduction protocol for drug-using female sex workers.

    PubMed

    Surratt, Hilary L; Inciardi, James A

    2010-01-01

    Female sex workers are especially vulnerable to HIV infection, particularly those who use drugs and engage in street-based sex exchange. This study examines the risk behaviors and HIV serostatus of 806 drug-using female sex workers in Miami and assesses the relative impact of two HIV and hepatitis prevention interventions on changes in risk behavior. Drug-using sex workers were recruited using targeted sampling strategies and were randomly assigned to the NIDA Standard Intervention or an innovative Sex Worker Focused (SWF) Intervention. Outcome analyses indicate that both groups benefited from participation in the intervention trial. However, the SWF Intervention was found to be more efficacious in regard to reductions in unprotected oral sex and sexual violence. PMID:20391059

  6. Breast Cancer Risk Reduction and Membrane-Bound Catechol O-Methyltransferase Genetic Polymorphisms

    PubMed Central

    Ji, Yuan; Olson, Janet; Zhang, Jianping; Hildebrandt, Michelle; Wang, Liewei; Ingle, James; Fredericksen, Zachary; Sellers, Thomas; Miller, William R.; Dixon, J. Michael; Brauch, Hiltrud; Eichelbaum, Michel; Justenhoven, Christina; Hamann, Ute; Ko, Yon; Brüning, Thomas; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Wang-Gohrke, Shan; Schaid, Daniel; Weinshilboum, Richard

    2008-01-01

    Catechol O-methyltransferase (COMT)-catalyzed methylation of catecholestrogens has been proposed to play a protective role in estrogen-induced genotoxic carcinogenesis. We have taken a comprehensive approach to test the hypothesis that genetic variation in COMT might influence breast cancer risk. Fifteen COMT SNPs selected on the basis of in-depth resequencing of the COMT gene were genotyped in 1482 DNA samples from a Mayo Clinic breast cancer case-control study. Two common SNPs in the distal promoter for membrane-bound (MB) COMT, rs2020917 and rs737865, were associated with breast cancer risk reduction in premenopausal women in the Mayo Clinic study, with allele-specific odds ratios of 0.70 (95% CI = 0.52–0.95) and 0.68 (95% CI = 0.51–0.92), respectively. These two SNPs were then subjected to functional genomic analysis and were genotyped in an additional 3683 DNA samples from two independent case-control studies (GENICA and GESBC). Functional genomic experiments showed that these SNPs could up-regulate transcription and that they altered DNA-protein binding patterns. Furthermore, substrate kinetic and exon array analyses suggested a role for MB-COMT in catecholestrogen inactivation. The GENICA results were similar to the Mayo case-control observations, with ORs of 0.85 (95% CI = 0.72–1.00) and 0.85 (95% CI = 0.72–1.01) for the two SNPs. No significant effect was observed in the GESBC study. These studies demonstrated that two SNPs in the COMT distal promoter were associated with breast cancer risk reduction in 2 of 3 case-control studies, compatible with the results of functional genomic experiments, suggesting a role for MB-COMT in breast cancer risk. PMID:18632656

  7. Effects of exercise training and Mediterranean diet on vascular risk reduction in post-menopausal women.

    PubMed

    Alkhatib, Ahmad; Klonizakis, Markos

    2014-01-01

    This study tested the potential risk-reduction benefits of Mediterranean Diet (MD) and regular exercise training on microvascular activity and cardiorespiratory capacity in postmenopausal women. Fifteen sedentary postmenopausal participants (age = 54.6 ± 3.6) were randomised into either exercise training or exercise combined with following MD for eight-weeks, and were assessed for their cardiorespiratory capacity, and upper- and lower-limb endothelial cutaneous vascular conductance (CVC) test using Laser Doppler Fluximetry (LDF), coupled with measuring endothelium-dependent Acetylcholine Chloride (Ach) and -dependent Sodium Nitropurruside (SNP) vasodilators. Exercise training improved cardiorespiratory capacity as indicated by ventilatory threshold (11.5 ± 2.1 vs. 14.0 ± 3.0 ml·kg-1·min-1, p < 0.05) and improved the microcirculatory perfusion results of CVC for both vasodilators Ach (p < 0.001, d = 0.65) and SNP (p = 0.003, d = 0.53) in the lower-limb and ACh (p = 0.01, d = 0.41) and SNP (p = 0.03, d = 0.48) in the upper-limb, all (p < 0.05). However, combining exercise with MD showed a stronger improvement in Ach (p = 0.02, d = 0.36) of the lower limb, than in exercise alone group. The results suggest that regular moderate exercise improves microcirculatory vascular function and increases exercise tolerance, both are responsible for reducing cardiovascular risk in postmenopausal women. However, combining MD with exercise suggests additional microvascular vasodialiatory improvement, suggesting an effective strategy for further cardiovascular risk-reduction in this high-risk group.

  8. NASA's Space Launch System Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction Efforts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crumbly, Christopher M.; Dumbacher, Daniel L.; May, Todd A.

    2012-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) formally initiated the Space Launch System (SLS) development in September 2011, with the approval of the program s acquisition plan, which engages the current workforce and infrastructure to deliver an initial 70 metric ton (t) SLS capability in 2017, while using planned block upgrades to evolve to a full 130 t capability after 2021. A key component of the acquisition plan is a three-phased approach for the first stage boosters. The first phase is to complete the development of the Ares and Space Shuttle heritage 5-segment solid rocket boosters (SRBs) for initial exploration missions in 2017 and 2021. The second phase in the booster acquisition plan is the Advanced Booster Risk Reduction and/or Engineering Demonstration NASA Research Announcement (NRA), which was recently awarded after a full and open competition. The NRA was released to industry on February 9, 2012, with a stated intent to reduce risks leading to an affordable advanced booster and to enable competition. The third and final phase will be a full and open competition for Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDT&E) of the advanced boosters. There are no existing boosters that can meet the performance requirements for the 130 t class SLS. The expected thrust class of the advanced boosters is potentially double the current 5-segment solid rocket booster capability. These new boosters will enable the flexible path approach to space exploration beyond Earth orbit (BEO), opening up vast opportunities including near-Earth asteroids, Lagrange Points, and Mars. This evolved capability offers large volume for science missions and payloads, will be modular and flexible, and will be right-sized for mission requirements. NASA developed the Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction NRA to seek industry participation in reducing risks leading to an affordable advanced booster that meets the SLS performance requirements

  9. NASA's Space Launch System Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and Risk Reduction Efforts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crumbly, Christopher M.; May, Todd; Dumbacher, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) formally initiated the Space Launch System (SLS) development in September 2011, with the approval of the program s acquisition plan, which engages the current workforce and infrastructure to deliver an initial 70 metric ton (t) SLS capability in 2017, while using planned block upgrades to evolve to a full 130 t capability after 2021. A key component of the acquisition plan is a three-phased approach for the first stage boosters. The first phase is to complete the development of the Ares and Space Shuttle heritage 5-segment solid rocket boosters for initial exploration missions in 2017 and 2021. The second phase in the booster acquisition plan is the Advanced Booster Risk Reduction and/or Engineering Demonstration NASA Research Announcement (NRA), which was recently awarded after a full and open competition. The NRA was released to industry on February 9, 2012, and its stated intent was to reduce risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster and to enable competition. The third and final phase will be a full and open competition for Design, Development, Test, and Evaluation (DDT&E) of the Advanced Boosters. There are no existing boosters that can meet the performance requirements for the 130 t class SLS. The expected thrust class of the Advanced Boosters is potentially double the current 5-segment solid rocket booster capability. These new boosters will enable the flexible path approach to space exploration beyond Earth orbit, opening up vast opportunities including near-Earth asteroids, Lagrange Points, and Mars. This evolved capability offers large volume for science missions and payloads, will be modular and flexible, and will be right-sized for mission requirements. NASA developed the Advanced Booster Engineering Demonstration and/or Risk Reduction NRA to seek industry participation in reducing risks leading to an affordable Advanced Booster that meets the SLS performance requirements. Demonstrations and

  10. Correlates of HIV Risk Reduction Self-Efficacy among Youth in South Africa

    PubMed Central

    Louw, Julia; Peltzer, Karl; Chirinda, Witness

    2012-01-01

    Even though a decline in HIV prevalence has been reported among South African youth 15–24 from 10.3% in 2005 to 8.6% in 2008, the prevalence remains disproportionately high for females overall in comparison to males. This study examines factors associated by HIV risk reduction self-efficacy of South African youth as part of an evaluation of the impact of loveLife, a youth focused HIV prevention programme. A cross-sectional population-based household survey was conducted with persons of ages 18 to 24 years in four selected provinces in South Africa. Among female respondents (n = 1007), factors associated with high self-efficacy in the adjusted model were having a low HIV risk perception, HIV/AIDS stigma, ever using drugs, and having life goals. Male respondents (n = 1127) with high self-efficacy were more likely to have been tested for HIV, have concurrent sexual partners, have had a transactional sex partner in lifetime, a low HIV risk perception, difficulty in having condoms, agreed with coercive sex, high relationship control, and had loveLife face-to-face programme participation. The factors identified with high self-efficacy and HIV-sexual risk behaviour may be considered to strengthen youth HIV prevention programmes in South Africa. PMID:23251106

  11. Soybean products and reduction of breast cancer risk: a case–control study in Japan

    PubMed Central

    Hirose, K; Imaeda, N; Tokudome, Y; Goto, C; Wakai, K; Matsuo, K; Ito, H; Toyama, T; Iwata, H; Tokudome, S; Tajima, K

    2005-01-01

    Components of the Japanese diet, which might contribute to the relatively low breast cancer incidence rates in Japan, have not been clarified in detail. Since soybean products are widely consumed in Japan, a case–control study taking account of the menopausal status was conducted using data from the hospital-based epidemiologic research program at Aichi Cancer Center (HERPACC). In total, 167 breast cancer cases were included and 854 women confirmed as free of cancer were recruited as the control group. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were determined by multiple logistic regression analysis. There were reductions in risk of breast cancer associated with high intake of soybean products among premenopausal women. Compared with women in the lowest tertile, the adjusted ORs for top tertile intake of tofu (soybean curd) was 0.49 (95% CI, 0.25–0.95). A significant decrease in premenopausal breast cancer risk was also observed for increasing consumption of isoflavones (OR=0.44; 95% CI, 0.22–0.89 for highest vs lowest tertile; P for trend=0.02). The present study found a statistically inverse association between tofu or isoflavone intake and risk of breast cancer in Japanese premenopausal women, while no statistically significant association was evident with the risk among postmenopausal women. PMID:15942624

  12. Impact of Uncertainties in Exposure Assessment on Estimates of Thyroid Cancer Risk among Ukrainian Children and Adolescents Exposed from the Chernobyl Accident

    PubMed Central

    Little, Mark P.; Kukush, Alexander G.; Masiuk, Sergii V.; Shklyar, Sergiy; Carroll, Raymond J.; Lubin, Jay H.; Kwon, Deukwoo; Brenner, Alina V.; Tronko, Mykola D.; Mabuchi, Kiyohiko; Bogdanova, Tetiana I.; Hatch, Maureen; Zablotska, Lydia B.; Tereshchenko, Valeriy P.; Ostroumova, Evgenia; Bouville, André C.; Drozdovitch, Vladimir; Chepurny, Mykola I.; Kovgan, Lina N.; Simon, Steven L.; Shpak, Victor M.; Likhtarev, Ilya A.

    2014-01-01

    The 1986 accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant remains the most serious nuclear accident in history, and excess thyroid cancers, particularly among those exposed to releases of iodine-131 remain the best-documented sequelae. Failure to take dose-measurement error into account can lead to bias in assessments of dose-response slope. Although risks in the Ukrainian-US thyroid screening study have been previously evaluated, errors in dose assessments have not been addressed hitherto. Dose-response patterns were examined in a thyroid screening prevalence cohort of 13,127 persons aged <18 at the time of the accident who were resident in the most radioactively contaminated regions of Ukraine. We extended earlier analyses in this cohort by adjusting for dose error in the recently developed TD-10 dosimetry. Three methods of statistical correction, via two types of regression calibration, and Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood, were applied to the doses that can be derived from the ratio of thyroid activity to thyroid mass. The two components that make up this ratio have different types of error, Berkson error for thyroid mass and classical error for thyroid activity. The first regression-calibration method yielded estimates of excess odds ratio of 5.78 Gy−1 (95% CI 1.92, 27.04), about 7% higher than estimates unadjusted for dose error. The second regression-calibration method gave an excess odds ratio of 4.78 Gy−1 (95% CI 1.64, 19.69), about 11% lower than unadjusted analysis. The Monte Carlo maximum-likelihood method produced an excess odds ratio of 4.93 Gy−1 (95% CI 1.67, 19.90), about 8% lower than unadjusted analysis. There are borderline-significant (p = 0.101–0.112) indications of downward curvature in the dose response, allowing for which nearly doubled the low-dose linear coefficient. In conclusion, dose-error adjustment has comparatively modest effects on regression parameters, a consequence of the relatively small errors, of a mixture of Berkson

  13. Hand hygiene regimens for the reduction of risk in food service environments.

    PubMed

    Edmonds, Sarah L; McCormack, Robert R; Zhou, Sifang Steve; Macinga, David R; Fricker, Christopher M

    2012-07-01

    Pathogenic strains of Escherichia coli and human norovirus are the main etiologic agents of foodborne illness resulting from inadequate hand hygiene practices by food service workers. This study was conducted to evaluate the antibacterial and antiviral efficacy of various hand hygiene product regimens under different soil conditions representative of those in food service settings and assess the impact of product formulation on this efficacy. On hands contaminated with chicken broth containing E. coli, representing a moderate soil load, a regimen combining an antimicrobial hand washing product with a 70% ethanol advanced formula (EtOH AF) gel achieved a 5.22-log reduction, whereas a nonantimicrobial hand washing product alone achieved a 3.10log reduction. When hands were heavily soiled from handling ground beef containing E. coli, a wash-sanitize regimen with a 0.5% chloroxylenol antimicrobial hand washing product and the 70% EtOH AF gel achieved a 4.60-log reduction, whereas a wash-sanitize regimen with a 62% EtOH foam achieved a 4.11-log reduction. Sanitizing with the 70% EtOH AF gel alone was more effective than hand washing with a nonantimicrobial product for reducing murine norovirus (MNV), a surrogate for human norovirus, with 2.60- and 1.79-log reductions, respectively. When combined with hand washing, the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 3.19-log reduction against MNV. A regimen using the SaniTwice protocol with the 70% EtOH AF gel produced a 4.04-log reduction against MNV. These data suggest that although the process of hand washing helped to remove pathogens from the hands, use of a wash-sanitize regimen was even more effective for reducing organisms. Use of a high-efficacy sanitizer as part of a wash-sanitize regimen further increased the efficacy of the regimen. The use of a well-formulated alcohol-based hand rub as part of a wash-sanitize regimen should be considered as a means to reduce risk of infection transmission in food service facilities. PMID

  14. Exploratory analysis of Spanish energetic mining accidents.

    PubMed

    Sanmiquel, Lluís; Freijo, Modesto; Rossell, Josep M

    2012-01-01

    Using data on work accidents and annual mining statistics, the paper studies work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining sector in 1999-2008. The following 3 parameters are considered: age, experience and size of the mine (in number of workers) where the accident took place. The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between different accident indicators: risk index (as an expression of the incidence), average duration index for the age and size of the mine variables (as a measure of the seriousness of an accident), and the gravity index for the various sizes of mines (which measures the seriousness of an accident, too). The conclusions of this study could be useful to develop suitable prevention policies that would contribute towards a decrease in work-related accidents in the Spanish energetic mining industry. PMID:22721539

  15. JV Task 104 - Risk Reduction Using Innovative Vacuum-Enhanced Plume Controls

    SciTech Connect

    Jaroslav Solc; Barry Botnen

    2009-03-01

    The Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) conducted remediation of hydrocarbon-contaminated soils and groundwater at the Vining Oil site in Carrington, North Dakota. The primary technological synergies included (1) contaminant recovery using simultaneous operation of multiphase recovery and high-vacuum soil vapor extraction (SVE) and (2) vacuum-controlled air and ozone sparging on the periphery of an induced hydraulic and pneumatic depression. Final risk reduction steps included design and retrofit for the municipal well. The successful remediation effort resulted in the reduction of long-term health risks associated with rate-limited contaminant release within the capture zone for the municipal well and allowed for its reintegration into the water supply system. Contaminant recovery for the remediation period of September 2006 to June 2008 totaled over 12,653 lb (5,740 kg) of hydrocarbons, an equivalent to 2022 gallons (7653 l) of product. Integration of the air-sparging subsystem operated simultaneously with multiphase extraction and SVE systems resulted in accelerated volatile organic contaminant transport from the saturated zone and increased contaminants of concern recovery. Delivery of over 7.7 million ft{sup 3} of oxygen (219.8 thousand m{sup 3}) into the contaminated aquifer would translate into in situ biodegradation of 2007 kg (4424 lb) of benzene and provide for long term stimulation of the natural attenuation process.

  16. Integrating community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: examples from the Pacific

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gero, A.; Méheux, K.; Dominey-Howes, D.

    2011-01-01

    It is acknowledged by academics and development practitioners alike that many common strategies addressing community based disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation duplicate each other. Thus, there is a strong push to integrate the two fields to enhance aid effectiveness and reduce confusion for communities. Examples of community based disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA) projects are presented to highlight some of the ways these issues are tackled in the Pacific. Various approaches are employed but all aim to reduce the vulnerability and enhance the resilience of local communities to the impacts of climate change and disasters. By focusing on three case studies, elements of best practice are drawn out to illustrate how DRR and CCA can be integrated for enhanced aid effectiveness, and also look at ways in which these two often overlapping fields can be better coordinated in ongoing and future projects. Projects that address vulnerability holistically, and target the overall needs and capacity of the community are found to be effective in enhancing the resilience of communities. By strategically developing a multi-stakeholder and multi-sector approach, community projects are likely to encapsulate a range of experience and skills that will benefit the community. Furthermore, by incorporating local knowledge, communities are far more likely to be engaged and actively participate in the project. From selected case studies, commonly occurring best practice methods to integrate DRR and CCA are identified and discussed and recommendations on how to overcome the common challenges also presented.

  17. [Risk reduction and intravenous drug use abstinence in patients with HIV infection. The SEROCO group].

    PubMed

    Meyer, L; Wade, A; Persoz, A; Boué, F; Dellamonica, P; Caroli-Bosc, C; Carré, N

    1998-02-01

    Few prospective studies have described the stepwise process of giving up intravenous drug (IV) use. In an effort to deepen the understanding of the relationship between risk reduction related to IV drug use and giving up such drug use, the authors studied factors associated with IV drug abstinence among HIV-infected patients using IV drugs at their enrollment in the multicenter French cohort SEROCO between 1988 and 1994. 63 HIV-infected patients injecting IV drugs at enrollment were followed clinically every 6 months and with a questionnaire on their sexual practices and drug use since their most recent consultations. The termination of drug use was defined as not using drugs for a period of at least 6 months. The 30 subjects who gave up IV drug use over the 3-year follow-up were compared to the 33 subjects who continued using IV drugs. Those who gave up IV drugs were more likely to be professionally active at enrollment than those who kept injecting, they more often used during the follow-up period new injection materials for each injection, and more often used condoms with HIV-negative partners and those of unknown serostatus. The abandonment of IV drug use in this study followed a stepwise process in which the reduction of risks preceded the eventual cessation of drug use.

  18. Health benefits of solar UV-B radiation: cancer risk reduction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grant, William B.

    2002-01-01

    Based on geographical distributions of various cancers in the U.S. and elsewhere, ecologic studies comparing these distributions to indices of solar radiation during the past 20 years have led to the understanding that solar UVB radiation is a risk reduction factor for breast, colon, ovarian, prostate cancer and non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL). Photo-initiated production of vitamin D is the mechanism that enables solar UVB to play this role. The work presented here explores the use of the USDA UVB Radiation Monitoring Program ground station values to confirm and extend the prior results, and compares these results to those obtained using UVB data from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS). Inverse correlations between solar UVB radiation have been found for a total of 14 cancers using mortality data from the U.S. with these data sets, and are supported by additional studies using cancer mortality and dietary supply data from Europe. While vitamin D has been shown to be a risk reduction factor for several of these cancers, it is hoped that additional studies will be conducted to confirm or disprove the protective role of UVB and/or vitamin D for the remaining cancers.

  19. Reduction of Perceived Social Distance as an Explanation for Media's Influence on Personal Risk Perceptions: A Test of the Risk Convergence Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    So, Jiyeon; Nabi, Robin

    2013-01-01

    The risk convergence model proposes reduction of perceived social distance to a mediated personality as a mechanism through which the mass media can influence audiences' personal risk perceptions. As an initial test of the model, this study examined whether 5 audience variables known to facilitate media effects on personal risk…

  20. Nurses failure to appreciate the risks of infection due to needle stick accidents: a hospital based survey.

    PubMed

    Leliopoulou, C; Waterman, H; Chakrabarty, S

    1999-05-01

    One of the most important occupational risks to healthcare workers is exposure is to blood-borne viruses. This study examined nurses' perceptions of risk of contracting infection following single or multiple exposure to blood or body fluids. Two hundred and ninety nurses were surveyed using a questionnaire. One hundred and thirty-three responded; 85 worked in higher risk areas (ITU, Haematology, Haemodialysis and Neonatal Surgical Units) (Group A) and 48 worked in lower risk areas (medical wards, an orthopaedic and an ENT ward) (Group B). Forty-nine percent of subjects from group A and 60% of subjects from Group B believed that a needle stick injury with a needle contaminated with infected blood was an unlikely source of infection. Fifteen percent from group A and 20% from group B thought that infection with a blood-borne virus following a needle stick injury contaminated with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infected blood was very unlikely. Twelve percent from group A and 10% from Group B did not know whether resheathing needles between use can provide protection against HIV. Sixty-seven percent from group A and 71% from group B disagreed with the statement that nurses are at higher risk of exposure to HIV/HBV than the other healthcare workers. Thirteen percent from group A and 5% from group B agreed with the statement, whereas 8% from group A and 5% from group B thought that nurses are at less risk. Only 22% from group A and 23% from group B would take more precautions if they knew that the patient had HIV/HBV infection, whilst 11% and 8% respectively admitted that they would take special precautions only when the patient has clinical symptoms of HIV/HBV infection. The findings suggest that these nurses would benefit from further education regarding infection from blood-borne viruses.

  1. Program for Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas: Translation of Science into Policy and Practice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mangan, Margaret; Pierson, Thomas; Wilkinson, Stuart; Westby, Elizabeth; Driedger, Carolyn; Ewert, John

    2016-04-01

    In 2013, the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Agency for International Development/Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) inaugurated Volcanic Risk Reduction in the Americas, a program that brings together binational delegations of scientists, civil authorities, and emergency response managers to discuss the challenges of integrating volcano science into crisis response and risk reduction practices. During reciprocal visits, delegations tour areas impacted by volcanic unrest and/or eruption, meet with affected communities, and exchange insights and best practices. The 2013 exchange focused on hazards at Mount Rainier (Washington, USA) and Nevado del Ruiz (Caldas/Tolima, Colombia). Both of these volcanoes are highly susceptible to large volcanic mudflows (lahars). The Colombia-USA exchange allowed participants to share insights on lahar warning systems, self-evacuation planning, and effective education programs for at-risk communities. [See Driedger and Ewert (2015) Abstract 76171 presented at 2015 Fall AGU, San Francisco, Calif., Dec 14-18]. The second exchange, in 2015, took place between the USA and Chile, focusing on the Long Valley volcanic region (California, USA) and Chaitén volcano (Lagos, Chile) - both are centers of rhyolite volcanism. The high viscosity of rhyolite magma can cause explosive eruptions with widespread destruction. The rare but catastrophic "super eruptions" of the world have largely been the result of rhyolite volcanism. Chaitén produced the world's first explosive rhyolite eruption in the age of modern volcano monitoring in 2008-2009. Rhyolite eruptions of similar scale and style have occurred frequently in the Long Valley volcanic region, most recently about 600 years ago. The explosivity and relative rarity of rhyolite eruptions create unique challenges to risk reduction efforts. The recent Chaitén eruption was unexpected - little was known of Chaitén's eruptive history, and because of this, monitoring

  2. Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.

    PubMed

    O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani

    2015-10-01

    "Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious. PMID:25969177

  3. Mediation of an efficacious HIV risk reduction intervention for South African men.

    PubMed

    O'Leary, Ann; Jemmott, John B; Jemmott, Loretta S; Bellamy, Scarlett; Icard, Larry D; Ngwane, Zolani

    2015-10-01

    "Men, Together Making a Difference!" is an HIV/STD risk-reduction intervention that significantly increased self-reported consistent condom use during vaginal intercourse compared with a health-promotion attention-control intervention among men (N = 1181) in Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. The present analyses were designed to identify mediators of the intervention's efficacy. The potential mediators were Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) constructs that the intervention targeted, including several aspects of condom-use self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, and knowledge. Mediation was assessed using a product-of-coefficients approach where an α path (the intervention's effect on the potential mediator) and a β path (the potential mediator's effect on the outcome of interest, adjusting for intervention) were estimated independently in a generalized estimating equations framework. Condom-use negotiation self-efficacy, technical-skill self-efficacy, and impulse-control self-efficacy were significant mediators. Although not mediators, descriptive norm and expected friends' approval of condom use predicted subsequent self-reported condom use, whereas the expected approval of sexual partner did not. The present results suggest that HIV/STD risk-reduction interventions that draw upon SCT and that address self-efficacy to negotiate condom use, to apply condoms correctly, and to exercise sufficient control when sexually aroused to use condoms may contribute to efforts to reduce sexual risk behavior among South African men. Future research must examine whether approaches that build normative support for condom use among men's friends are also efficacious.

  4. Persistence of LNAPL sources: relationship between risk reduction and LNAPL recovery.

    PubMed

    Huntley, David; Beckett, G D

    2002-11-01

    Light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs), such as fuels, are the source of much soil and groundwater contamination. Though the mobility of LNAPLs is limited in many environments, dissolved-phase components, such as benzene, can produce groundwater plumes that are more mobile than the LNAPL source. In such a setting, it is commonly assumed that recovery of the LNAPL will result in a reduction in risk associated with the dissolved phase. This paper synthesizes several existing multiphase and chemical transport solutions into a single linked methodology that predicts concentrations of soluble constituents within and downgradient of LNAPL source zones from dissolution of those constituents into groundwater flowing through and below LNAPL sources. This approach has been applied to a variety of LNAPL spill conditions. For biodegradable compounds, these analyses show that the period of time where the dissolved-phase plume is expanding is very small compared to the duration of most LNAPL sources, and that the downgradient extent is generally less than about 100 m for BTEX compounds. Therefore, the risk to receptors, as measured by the maximum downgradient extent of dissolved-phase plume or the maximum concentration of these compounds at a downgradient receptor, is generally unrelated to the longevity of the LNAPL sources. The maximum downgradient extent of the dissolved-phase plume is determined almost entirely by the groundwater velocity and the biodegradation rate. These analyses further demonstrate that recovery of LNAPL by hydraulic methods is often ineffective at reducing risk. Except in coarse-grained soils or intermediate soils with significant LNAPL saturations, free-product recovery approaches do not result in significant reductions in the longevity of downgradient dissolved-phase contamination. Further, for biodegradable constituents, remediation does not result in a near-term decrease in the downgradient extent of contamination. Cleanup methods that act to change

  5. Application of satellite derived information for disaster risk reduction: vulnerability assessment for southwest coast of Pakistan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rafiq, Lubna; Blaschke, Thomas; Zeil, Peter

    2010-10-01

    The SW-coast of Pakistan is vulnerable to natural disasters, such as cyclones and tsunamis. Lack of spatially referenced information is a major hinder for proper disaster risk management programs in Pakistan, but satellite remote sensing being reliable, fast and spatially referenced information can be used as an important component in various natural disaster risk reduction activities. This study aimed to investigate vulnerability of coastal communities to cyclone and tsunamis based on satellite derived information. It is observed that SPOT-5 is relevant source on threatened features with respect to certain vulnerabilities like road, settlements, infrastructure and used in preparation of hazard zonation and vulnerability maps. Landsat ETM found very useful in demarcation of flood inundated areas. The GIS integrated evaluation of LANDSAT and ASTER GDEM helps identify low lying areas most susceptible to flooding and inundation by cyclone surges and tsunamis. The GIS integrated evaluation of SPOT, LANDSAT and ASTER GDEM data helps identify areas and infrastructure most vulnerable to cyclone surges and tsunami. Additionally, analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures (schools, hospitals) within hazard zones provides indicators for the degree of spatial exposure to disaster. Satellite derived information in conjunction with detailed surveys of hazard prone areas can provide comprehensive vulnerability and risk analysis.

  6. Preventing cardiovascular disease through community-based risk reduction: the Bootheel Heart Health Project.

    PubMed Central

    Brownson, R C; Smith, C A; Pratt, M; Mack, N E; Jackson-Thompson, J; Dean, C G; Dabney, S; Wilkerson, J C

    1996-01-01

    OBJECTIVES. The purpose of this study was to determine whether a community-based risk reduction project affected behavioral risk factors for cardiovascular disease. METHODS. Community-based activities (e.g., exercise groups, healthy cooking demonstrations, blood pressure and cholesterol screenings, and cardiovascular disease education) were conducted in six southeastern Missouri counties. Evaluation involved population-based, cross-sectional samples of adult residents of the state and the intervention region. Weighted prevalence estimates were calculated for self-reported physical inactivity, cigarette smoking, consumption of fruits and vegetables, overweight, and cholesterol screening. RESULTS. Physical inactivity decreased within the intervention region, that is, in communities where heart health coalitions were developed and among respondents who were aware of these coalitions. In addition, the prevalence rates for reports of cholesterol screening within the past 2 years were higher for respondents in areas with coalitions and among persons who were aware of the coalitions. CONCLUSIONS. Even with modest resources, community-based interventions show promise in reducing self-reported risk for cardiovascular disease within a relatively brief period. PMID:8633737

  7. Risk reduction among HIV-seroconcordant and -discordant couples: the Zambia NOW2 intervention.

    PubMed

    Jones, Deborah; Kashy, Deborah; Chitalu, Ndashi; Kankasa, Chipepo; Mumbi, Mirriam; Cook, Ryan; Weiss, Stephen

    2014-08-01

    Heterosexual HIV transmission remains the leading cause of HIV incidence in adult men and women in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assessed whether an HIV risk-reduction intervention would be more likely to increase sexual barrier acceptability and decrease risk behavior when delivered to couples in gender concordant groups or in an individual format. This study also examined the mutual impact of couple members as a source of influence on acceptability, and assessed whether product acceptability, intimate partner violence (IPV), and/or partner communication predicted sexual barrier use. HIV seroconcordant and serodiscordant couples (n=216) were recruited in Lusaka, Zambia, and randomized to a four session gender-concordant intervention. Participants were assessed at baseline, 6, and 12 months. Willingness to use barriers (p=0.012), acceptability (p<0.001), and barrier use (p<0.001) increased over time in both conditions, and were influenced by gender preferences. IPV decreased (p=0.040) and positive communication increased (p<0.001) in both conditions. Individual and gender concordant group sessions achieved similar increases in sexual barrier use following the intervention. Results highlight the influence of partners as well as product acceptability as predictors of sexual barrier use among couples in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention studies should consider both product acceptability and partner influence to achieve optimal sexual risk behavior outcomes.

  8. Using radon risk to motivate smoking reduction: evaluation of written materials and brief telephone counselling

    PubMed Central

    Lichtenstein, E.; Andrews, J.; Lee, M.; Glasgow, R.; Hampson, S.

    2000-01-01

    OBJECTIVE—Radon and cigarette smoking have synergistic effects on lung cancer, even when radon concentrations are relatively low. Working through an electric utility company, we sought to reach smoking households with low radon concentrations and motivate smoking cessation or prohibiting smoking in the home.
DESIGN—Eligible homes (n = 714) were randomised to receive: (1) the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA's) "A citizen's guide to radon"; (2) a specially developed pamphlet; or (3) that pamphlet plus brief telephone counselling.
PROCEDURE—Utility company "bill stuffers" offered free radon test kits to smoking households. All households received radon test results with an explanatory cover letter. Both the specially developed pamphlet and the telephone counselling emphasised that smoking cessation or prohibiting smoking in the home were the optimal risk reduction strategies. Households were followed up at 3 and 12 months after receiving materials.
RESULTS—The specially developed pamphlet and the EPA guide yielded similar outcomes. There was a non-significant trend for telephone counselling to produce greater sustained quitting than the specially developed pamphlet, and phone counselling led to significantly more new household smoking bans.
CONCLUSIONS—Working through a public utility company is an efficient way to reach smoking households, and brief telephone counselling is a promising method for promoting household smoking bans and cessation in homes alerted to the risk posed by the combination of radon and smoking.


Keywords: radon risk; smoking cessation; smoking bans; telephone counselling PMID:10982577

  9. Breaking Patterns of Environmentally Influenced Disease for Health Risk Reduction: Immune Perspectives

    PubMed Central

    Dietert, Rodney R.; DeWitt, Jamie C.; Germolec, Dori R.; Zelikoff, Judith T.

    2010-01-01

    Background Diseases rarely, if ever, occur in isolation. Instead, most represent part of a more complex web or “pattern” of conditions that are connected via underlying biological mechanisms and processes, emerge across a lifetime, and have been identified with the aid of large medical databases. Objective We have described how an understanding of patterns of disease may be used to develop new strategies for reducing the prevalence and risk of major immune-based illnesses and diseases influenced by environmental stimuli. Findings Examples of recently defined patterns of diseases that begin in childhood include not only metabolic syndrome, with its characteristics of inflammatory dysregulation, but also allergic, autoimmune, recurrent infection, and other inflammatory patterns of disease. The recent identification of major immune-based disease patterns beginning in childhood suggests that the immune system may play an even more important role in determining health status and health care needs across a lifetime than was previously understood. Conclusions Focusing on patterns of disease, as opposed to individual conditions, offers two important venues for environmental health risk reduction. First, prevention of developmental immunotoxicity and pediatric immune dysfunction can be used to act against multiple diseases. Second, pattern-based treatment of entryway diseases can be tailored with the aim of disrupting the entire disease pattern and reducing the risk of later-life illnesses connected to underlying immune dysfunction. Disease-pattern–based evaluation, prevention, and treatment will require a change from the current approach for both immune safety testing and pediatric disease management. PMID:20483701

  10. Temporal patterns of deer-vehicle collisions consistent with deer activity pattern and density increase but not general accident risk.

    PubMed

    Hothorn, Torsten; Müller, Jörg; Held, Leonhard; Möst, Lisa; Mysterud, Atle

    2015-08-01

    The increasing number of deer-vehicle collisions (DVCs) across Europe during recent decades poses a serious threat to human health and animal welfare and increasing costs for society. DVCs are triggered by both a human-related and a deer-related component. Mitigation requires an understanding of the processes driving temporal and spatial collision patterns. Separating human-related from deer-related processes is important for identifying potentially effective countermeasures, but this has rarely been done. We analysed two time series of 341,655 DVCs involving roe deer and 854,659 non-deer-related accidents (non-DVCs) documented between 2002 and 2011. Nonparametric smoothing and temporal parametric modelling were used to estimate annual, seasonal, weekly and diurnal patterns in DVCs, non-DVCs and adjusted DVCs. As we had access to data on both DVCs and non-DVCs, we were able to disentangle the relative role of human-related and deer-related processes contributing to the overall temporal DVC pattern. We found clear evidence that variation in DVCs was mostly driven by deer-related and not human-related activity on annual, seasonal, weekly and diurnal scales. A very clear crepuscular activity pattern with high activity after sunset and around sunrise throughout the year was identified. Early spring and the mating season between mid-July and mid-August are typically periods of high roe deer activity, and as expected we found a high number of DVC during these periods, although these patterns differed tremendously during different phases of a day. The role of human activity was mainly reflected in fewer DVCs on weekends than on weekdays. Over the ten-year study period, we estimated that DVCs increased by 25%, whereas the number of non-DVCs decreased by 10%. Increasing deer densities are the most likely driver behind this rise in DVCs. Precise estimates of DVC patterns and their relationship to deer and human activity patterns allow implementation of specific mitigation

  11. Radiation accidents

    SciTech Connect

    Saenger, E.L.

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity.

  12. Radiation accidents.

    PubMed

    Saenger, E L

    1986-09-01

    It is essential that emergency physicians understand ways to manage patients contaminated by radioactive materials and/or exposed to external radiation sources. Contamination accidents require careful surveys to identify the metabolic pathway of the radionuclides to guide prognosis and treatment. The level of treatment required will depend on careful surveys and meticulous decontamination. There is no specific therapy for the acute radiation syndrome. Prophylactic antibodies are desirable. For severely exposed patients treatment is similar to the supportive care given to patients undergoing organ transplantation. For high-dose extremity injury, no methods have been developed to reverse the fibrosing endarteritis that eventually leads to tissue death so frequently found with this type of injury. Although the Three Mile Island episode of March 1979 created tremendous public concern, there were no radiation injuries. The contamination outside the reactor building and the release of radioiodine were negligible. The accidental fuel element meltdown at Chernobyl, USSR, resulted in many cases of acute radiation syndrome. More than 100,000 people were exposed to high levels of radioactive fallout. The general principles outlined here are applicable to accidents of that degree of severity. PMID:3526994

  13. Usability Testing and Adaptation of the Pediatric Cardiovascular Risk Reduction Clinical Decision Support Tool

    PubMed Central

    Furberg, Robert D; Bagwell, Jacqueline E; LaBresh, Kenneth A

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is 1 of the leading causes of death, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted years of life lost worldwide. CVD prevention for children and teens is needed, as CVD risk factors and behaviors beginning in youth contribute to CVD development. In 2012, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute released their “Integrated Guidelines for Cardiovascular Health and Risk Reduction in Children and Adolescents” for clinicians, describing CVD risk factors they should address with patients at primary care preventative visits. However, uptake of new guidelines is slow. Clinical decision support (CDS) tools can improve guideline uptake. In this paper, we describe our process of testing and adapting a CDS tool to help clinicians evaluate patient risk, recommend behaviors to prevent development of risk, and complete complex calculations to determine appropriate interventions as recommended by the guidelines, using a user-centered design approach. Objective The objective of the study was to assess the usability of a pediatric CVD risk factor tool by clinicians. Methods The tool was tested using one-on-one in-person testing and a “think aloud” approach with 5 clinicians and by using the tool in clinical practice along with formal usability metrics with 14 pediatricians. Thematic analysis of the data from the in-person testing and clinical practice testing identified suggestions for change in 3 major areas: user experience, content refinement, and technical deployment. Descriptive statistical techniques were employed to summarize users’ overall experience with the tool. Results Data from testers showed that general reactions toward the CDS tool were positive. Clinical practice testers suggested revisions to make the application more user-friendly, especially for clinicians using the application on the iPhone, and called for refining recommendations to be more succinct and better tailored to the patient. Tester feedback was

  14. The effect of risk perception on public preferences and willingness to pay for reductions in the health risks posed by toxic cyanobacterial blooms.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Peter D; Hanley, Nick; Czajkowski, Mikołaj; Mearns, Kathryn; Tyler, Andrew N; Carvalho, Laurence; Codd, Geoffrey A

    2012-06-01

    Mass populations of toxin-producing cyanobacteria are an increasingly common occurrence in inland and coastal waters used for recreational purposes. These mass populations pose serious risks to human and animal health and impose potentially significant economic costs on society. In this study, we used contingent valuation (CV) methods to elicit public willingness to pay (WTP) for reductions in the morbidity risks posed by blooms of toxin-producing cyanobacteria in Loch Leven, Scotland. We found that 55% of respondents (68% excluding protest voters) were willing to pay for a reduction in the number of days per year (from 90, to either 45 or 0 days) that cyanobacteria pose a risk to human health at Loch Leven. The mean WTP for a risk reduction was UK£9.99-12.23/household/year estimated using a logistic spike model. In addition, using the spike model and a simultaneous equations model to control for endogeneity bias, we found the respondents' WTP was strongly dependent on socio-demographic characteristics, economic status and usage of the waterbody, but also individual-specific attitudes and perceptions towards health risks. This study demonstrates that anticipated health risk reductions are an important nonmarket benefit of improving water quality in recreational waters and should be accounted for in future cost-benefit analyses such as those being undertaken under the auspices of the European Union's Water Framework Directive, but also that such values depend on subjective perceptions of water-related health risks and general attitudes towards the environment.

  15. Risk-informed regulation and safety management of nuclear power plants--on the prevention of severe accidents.

    PubMed

    Himanen, Risto; Julin, Ari; Jänkälä, Kalle; Holmberg, Jan-Erik; Virolainen, Reino

    2012-11-01

    There are four operating nuclear power plant (NPP) units in Finland. The Teollisuuden Voima (TVO) power company has two 840 MWe BWR units supplied by Asea-Atom at the Olkiluoto site. The Fortum corporation (formerly IVO) has two 500 MWe VVER 440/213 units at the Loviisa site. In addition, a 1600 MWe European Pressurized Water Reactor supplied by AREVA NP (formerly the Framatome ANP--Siemens AG Consortium) is under construction at the Olkiluoto site. Recently, the Finnish Parliament ratified the government Decision in Principle that the utilities' applications to build two new NPP units are in line with the total good of the society. The Finnish utilities, Fenno power company, and TVO company are in progress of qualifying the type of the new nuclear builds. In Finland, risk-informed applications are formally integrated in the regulatory process of NPPs that are already in the early design phase and these are to run through the construction and operation phases all through the entire plant service time. A plant-specific full-scope probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is required for each NPP. PRAs shall cover internal events, area events (fires, floods), and external events such as harsh weather conditions and seismic events in all operating modes. Special attention is devoted to the use of various risk-informed PRA applications in the licensing of Olkiluoto 3 NPP.

  16. Coordination of International Risk-Reduction Investigations by the Multilateral Human Research Panel for Exploration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Charles, John B.; Bogomolov, Valery V.

    2015-01-01

    Effective use of the unique capabilities of the International Space Station (ISS) for risk reduction on future deep space missions involves preliminary work in analog environments to identify and evaluate the most promising techniques, interventions and treatments. This entails a consolidated multinational approach to biomedical research both on ISS and in ground analogs. The Multilateral Human Research Panel for Exploration (MHRPE) was chartered by the five ISS partners to recommend the best combination of partner investigations on ISS for risk reduction in the relatively short time available for ISS utilization. MHRPE will also make recommendations to funding agencies for appropriate preparatory analog work. In 2011, NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) and the Institute of Biomedical Problems (IBMP) of the Russian Academy of Science, acting for MHRPE, developed a joint US-Russian biomedical program for the 2015 one-year ISS mission (1YM) of American and Russian crewmembers. This was to evaluate the possibilities for multilateral research on ISS. An overlapping list of 16 HRP, 9 IBMP, 3 Japanese, 3 European and 1 Canadian investigations were selected to address risk-reduction goals in 7 categories: Functional Performance, Behavioral Health, Visual Impairment, Metabolism, Physical Capacity, Microbial and Human Factors. MHRPE intends to build on this bilateral foundation to recommend more fully-integrated multilateral investigations on future ISS missions commencing after the 1YM. MHRPE has also endorsed an on-going program of coordinated research on 6-month, one-year and 6-week missions ISS expeditions that is now under consideration by ISS managers. Preparatory work for these missions will require coordinated and collaborative campaigns especially in the psychological and psychosocial areas using analog isolation facilities in Houston, Köln and Moscow, and possibly elsewhere. The multilateral Human Analogs research working group (HANA) is the focal point of those

  17. On-ground casualty risk reduction by structural design for demise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemmens, Stijn; Funke, Quirin; Krag, Holger

    2015-06-01

    In recent years, awareness concerning the on-ground risk posed by un-controlled re-entering space systems has increased. On average over the past decade, an object with mass above 800 kg re-enters every week from which only a few, e.g. ESA's GOCE in 2013 and NASA's UARS in 2011, appeared prominent in international media. Space agencies and nations have discussed requirements to limit the on-ground risk for future missions. To meet the requirements, the amount of debris falling back on Earth has to be limited in number, mass and size. Design for demise (D4D) refers to all measures taken in the design of a space object to increase the potential for demise of the object and its components during re-entry. SCARAB (Spacecraft Atmospheric Re-entry and Break-Up) is ESA's high-fidelity tool which analyses the thermal and structural effects of atmospheric re-entry on spacecraft with a finite-element approach. For this study, a model of a representative satellite is developed in SCARAB to serve as test-bed for D4D analyses on a structural level. The model is used as starting point for different D4D approaches based on increasing the exposure of the satellite components to the aero-thermal environment, as a way to speed up the demise. Statistical bootstrapping is applied to the resulting on-ground fragment lists in order to compare the different re-entry scenarios and to determine the uncertainties of the results. Moreover, the bootstrap results can be used to analyse the casualty risk estimator from a theoretical point of view. The risk reductions for the analysed D4D techniques are presented with respect to the reference scenario for the modelled representative satellite.

  18. Guide to radiological accident considerations for siting and design of DOE nonreactor nuclear facilities

    SciTech Connect

    Elder, J.C.; Graf, J.M.; Dewart, J.M.; Buhl, T.E.; Wenzel, W.J.; Walker, L.J.; Stoker, A.K.

    1986-01-01

    This guide was prepared to provide the experienced safety analyst with accident analysis guidance in greater detail than is possible in Department of Energy (DOE) Orders. The guide addresses analysis of postulated serious accidents considered in the siting and selection of major design features of DOE nuclear facilities. Its scope has been limited to radiological accidents at nonreactor nuclear facilities. The analysis steps addressed in the guide lead to evaluation of radiological dose to exposed persons for comparison with siting guideline doses. Other possible consequences considered are environmental contamination, population dose, and public health effects. Choices of models and parameters leading to estimation of source terms, release fractions, reduction and removal factors, dispersion and dose factors are discussed. Although requirements for risk analysis have not been established, risk estimates are finding increased use in siting of major nuclear facilities, and are discussed in the guide. 3 figs., 9 tabs.

  19. From LEO, to the Moon and then Mars: Developing a Global Strategy for Exploration Risk Reduction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Laurini, Kathleen C.; Hufenbach, Bernard

    2009-01-01

    Most nations currently involved in human spaceflight, or with such ambitions, believe that space exploration will capture the imagination of our youth resulting in future engineers and scientists, advance technologies which will improve life on earth, increase the knowledge of our solar system, and strengthen bonds and relationships across the globe. The Global Exploration Strategy, published in 2007 by 14 space agencies, eloquently makes this case and presents a vision for space exploration. It argues that in order for space exploration to be sustainable, nations must work together to address the challenges and share the burden of costs. This paper will examine Mars mission scenarios developed by NASA, ESA and other agencies and show resulting conclusions regarding key challenges, needed technologies and associated mission risks. It will discuss the importance of using the International Space Station as a platform for exploration risk reduction and how the global exploration community will develop lunar exploration elements and architectures that enable the long term goal of human missions to Mars. The International Space Station (ISS) is a critical first step both from a technology and capability demonstration point of view, but also from a partnership point of view. There is much work that can be done in low earth orbit for exploration risk reduction. As the current "outpost at the edge of the frontier", the ISS is a place where we can demonstrate certain technologies and capabilities that will substantially reduce the risk of deploying an outpost on the lunar surface and Mars mission scenarios. The ISS partnership is strong and has fulfilled mission needs. Likewise, the partnerships we build on the moon will provide a strong foundation for establishing partnerships for the human Mars missions. On the moon, we build a permanently manned outpost and deploy technologies and capabilities to allow humans to stay for long periods of time. The moon is interesting from

  20. Predictors of Intention to Change HIV Sexual and Injection Risk Behaviors among Heterosexual Methamphetamine-Using Offenders in Drug Treatment: A Test of the AIDS Risk Reduction Model

    PubMed Central

    Brecht, Mary-Lynn; Stein, Judith; Evans, Elizabeth; Murphy, Debra A.; Longshore, Douglas

    2013-01-01

    This study tested components of the AIDS Risk Reduction Model (ARRM) for a sample of methamphetamine-using offenders in drug treatment. Analyses included the first two stages of the ARRM, problem recognition and intention to reduce risk (potential precursors to later possible behavior change), assessing predictors of intentions to increase condom use, reduce other sexual risk, and disinfect needles. Path analysis results showed potential applicability of the ARRM as a basis for intervention development for this population. There was a consistent effect of self-efficacy for risk reduction strategies, as well as direct or indirect effects of problem recognition factors (AIDS knowledge, peer norms), on the three intention indicators. Prior sex risk behavior (condom use) was directly negatively related to intention to use condoms; prior needle use was indirectly negatively related to intention to disinfect. Intention to use condoms was lower for females. Results can help identify areas for intervention development. PMID:18214688

  1. Community food environment measures in the Alabama Black Belt: Implications for cancer risk reduction.

    PubMed

    Gyawu, Rebecca; Quansah, Joseph E; Fall, Souleymane; Gichuhi, Peter N; Bovell-Benjamin, Adelia C

    2015-01-01

    In-store measures were utilized to evaluate the availability of healthy food choices and nutrition/health promotion messages for cancer risk reduction in the selected Alabama Black Belt counties/cities. Sixty one retail food outlets (RFOs) were audited in 12 Alabama Black Belt cities. Store types included convenience stores (49.2%), restaurants (19.7%), fast food restaurants (16.4%), small supermarkets (8.2%), and large supermarket and farmers' markets (3.3 %), respectively. Although there were low numbers of farmers' markets/street stands and large supermarkets, these had significantly (p < 0.0001) higher health scores than the other store types. A few health promotion messages were highly visible or obscurely positioned in some RFOs. The Alabama Black Belt food environment had limited opportunities for healthy food choices. PMID:26844138

  2. Fighting Testing ACAT/FRRP: Automatic Collision Avoidance Technology/Fighter Risk Reduction Project

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Skoog, Mark A.

    2009-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews the work of the Flight testing Automatic Collision Avoidance Technology/Fighter Risk Reduction Project (ACAT/FRRP). The goal of this project is to develop common modular architecture for all aircraft, and to enable the transition of technology from research to production as soon as possible to begin to reduce the rate of mishaps. The automated Ground Collision Avoidance System (GCAS) system is designed to prevent collision with the ground, by avionics that project the future trajectory over digital terrain, and request an evasion maneuver at the last instance. The flight controls are capable of automatically performing a recovery. The collision avoidance is described in the presentation. Also included in the presentation is a description of the flight test.

  3. Youth participation in disaster risk reduction through science clubs in the Philippines.

    PubMed

    Fernandez, Glenn; Shaw, Rajib

    2015-04-01

    With the UN-led celebration of the International Year of Youth from August 2010 to August 2011 there has been a renewed interest in young people and the vital role they can play in important issues, such as disaster risk reduction (DRR). This study aims to examine the potential of science clubs as a vehicle for youth participation in DRR in the Philippines. A questionnaire survey was conducted to obtain quantitative and qualitative data. A total of 658 science club members from different provinces of the Philippines participated in the survey. The result of the survey is used to explain how the major barriers to youth participation in DRR can be overcome. Through science clubs, the youth can become a link between their school, home and community and can contribute to spreading knowledge about disaster prevention, preparedness and response learned inside and outside the classroom.

  4. Developing interpretable models with optimized set reduction for identifying high risk software components

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Briand, Lionel C.; Basili, Victor R.; Hetmanski, Christopher J.

    1993-01-01

    Applying equal testing and verification effort to all parts of a software system is not very efficient, especially when resources are limited and scheduling is tight. Therefore, one needs to be able to differentiate low/high fault frequency components so that testing/verification effort can be concentrated where needed. Such a strategy is expected to detect more faults and thus improve the resulting reliability of the overall system. This paper presents the Optimized Set Reduction approach for constructing such models, intended to fulfill specific software engineering needs. Our approach to classification is to measure the software system and build multivariate stochastic models for predicting high risk system components. We present experimental results obtained by classifying Ada components into two