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Sample records for accuracy positive predictive

  1. The Influence of Application a Simplified Transformation Model Between Reference Frames ECEF and ECI onto Prediction Accuracy of Position and Velocity of GLONASS Satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Krzyżek, Robert; Skorupa, Bogdan

    2015-12-01

    In computational tasks of satellite geodesy there is a need for transformation of coordinates between reference frames ECEF - Earth Centered, Earth Fixed and ECI - Earth Centered, Inertial. Strict and simplified transformation models, which can be used in case of the position and velocity short-term predictions of GLONASS satellites, have been presented in this study. Comparison of the results of state vector components predictions of the GLONASS satellites, in dependence of the used transformation model, have also been presented. Accuracy of the prediction has been determined on the basis of the analyse of deviations of the predicted positions and velocities of GLONASS satellites from their values given in broadcast ephemeris.

  2. Piezoresistive position microsensors with ppm-accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stavrov, Vladimir; Shulev, Assen; Stavreva, Galina; Todorov, Vencislav

    2015-05-01

    In this article, the relation between position accuracy and the number of simultaneously measured values, such as coordinates, has been analyzed. Based on this, a conceptual layout of MEMS devices (microsensors) for multidimensional position monitoring comprising a single anchored and a single actuated part has been developed. Both parts are connected with a plurality of micromechanical flexures, and each flexure includes position detecting cantilevers. Microsensors having detecting cantilevers oriented in X and Y direction have been designed and prototyped. Experimentally measured results at characterization of 1D, 2D and 3D position microsensors are reported as well. Exploiting different flexure layouts, a travel range between 50μm and 1.8mm and sensors' sensitivity in the range between 30μV/μm and 5mV/μm@ 1V DC supply voltage have been demonstrated. A method for accurate calculation of all three Cartesian coordinates, based on measurement of at least three microsensors' signals has also been described. The analyses of experimental results prove the capability of position monitoring with ppm-(part per million) accuracy. The technology for fabrication of MEMS devices with sidewall embedded piezoresistors removes restrictions in strong improvement of their usability for position sensing with a high accuracy. The present study is, also a part of a common strategy for developing a novel MEMS-based platform for simultaneous accurate measurement of various physical values when they are transduced to a change of position.

  3. Positional Accuracy Assessment of Googleearth in Riyadh

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Farah, Ashraf; Algarni, Dafer

    2014-06-01

    Google Earth is a virtual globe, map and geographical information program that is controlled by Google corporation. It maps the Earth by the superimposition of images obtained from satellite imagery, aerial photography and GIS 3D globe. With millions of users all around the globe, GoogleEarth® has become the ultimate source of spatial data and information for private and public decision-support systems besides many types and forms of social interactions. Many users mostly in developing countries are also using it for surveying applications, the matter that raises questions about the positional accuracy of the Google Earth program. This research presents a small-scale assessment study of the positional accuracy of GoogleEarth® Imagery in Riyadh; capital of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). The results show that the RMSE of the GoogleEarth imagery is 2.18 m and 1.51 m for the horizontal and height coordinates respectively.

  4. Positioning accuracy of the neurotron 1000

    SciTech Connect

    Cox, R.S.; Murphy, M.J.

    1995-12-31

    The Neuotron 1000 is a novel treatment machine under development for frameless stereotaxic radiosurgery that consists of a compact X-band accelerator mounted on a robotic arm. The therapy beam is guided to the lesion by an imaging system, which included two diagnostic x-ray cameras that view the patient during treatment. Patient position and motion are measured by the imaging system and appropriate corrections are communicated in real time to the robotic arm for beam targeting and motion tracking. The three tests reported here measured the pointing accuracy of the therapy beam and the present capability of the imaging guidance system. The positioning and pointing test measured the ability of the robotic arm to direct the beam through a test isocenter from arbitrary arm positions. The test isocenter was marked by a small light-sensitive crystal and the beam axis was simulated by a laser.

  5. Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

    SciTech Connect

    King, Bruce Hardison; Hansen, Clifford; Stein, Joshua

    2015-12-01

    PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

  6. Positional Accuracy of Gps Satellite Almanac

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Lihua; Zhou, Shangli

    2014-12-01

    How to accelerate signal acquisition and shorten starting time are key problems in the Global Positioning System (GPS). GPS satellite almanac plays an important role in signal reception period. Almanac accuracy directly affects the speed of GPS signal acquisition, the start time of the receiver, and even the system performance to some extent. Combined with precise ephemeris products released by the International GNSS Service (IGS), the authors analyse GPS satellite almanac from the first day to the third day in the 1805th GPS week (from August 11 to 13, 2014 in the Gregorian calendar). The results show that mean of position errors in three-dimensional coordinate system varies from about 1 kilometer to 3 kilometers, which can satisfy the needs of common users.

  7. Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest

    PubMed Central

    Aharoni, Eyal; Mallett, Joshua; Vincent, Gina M.; Harenski, Carla L.; Calhoun, Vince D.; Sinnott-Armstrong, Walter; Gazzaniga, Michael S.; Kiehl, Kent A.

    2014-01-01

    A recently published study by the present authors (Aharoni et al., 2013) reported evidence that functional changes in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) within a sample of 96 criminal offenders who were engaged in a Go/No-Go impulse control task significantly predicted their rearrest following release from prison. In an extended analysis, we use discrimination and calibration techniques to test the accuracy of these predictions relative to more traditional models and their ability to generalize to new observations in both full and reduced models. Modest to strong discrimination and calibration accuracy were found, providing additional support for the utility of neurobiological measures in predicting rearrest. PMID:24720689

  8. Time and position accuracy using codeless GPS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dunn, C. E.; Jefferson, D. C.; Lichten, S. M.; Thomas, J. B.; Vigue, Y.; Young, L. E.

    1994-01-01

    The Global Positioning System has allowed scientists and engineers to make measurements having accuracy far beyond the original 15 meter goal of the system. Using global networks of P-Code capable receivers and extensive post-processing, geodesists have achieved baseline precision of a few parts per billion, and clock offsets have been measured at the nanosecond level over intercontinental distances. A cloud hangs over this picture, however. The Department of Defense plans to encrypt the P-Code (called Anti-Spoofing, or AS) in the fall of 1993. After this event, geodetic and time measurements will have to be made using codeless GPS receivers. However, there appears to be a silver lining to the cloud. In response to the anticipated encryption of the P-Code, the geodetic and GPS receiver community has developed some remarkably effective means of coping with AS without classified information. We will discuss various codeless techniques currently available and the data noise resulting from each. We will review some geodetic results obtained using only codeless data, and discuss the implications for time measurements. Finally, we will present the status of GPS research at JPL in relation to codeless clock measurements.

  9. High-accuracy discrete positioning device

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brooks, John J. (Inventor)

    1994-01-01

    An article (30) is controllably and precisely positioned at one of three discrete locations defined by a linkage. The positioning apparatus includes two independently driven cranks (34, 42), with a link (50) pivotably connected between the two cranks (34, 42). Another connector (44) is pivotably connected between one of the cranks (34 or 42) and the article (30) to be positioned. The cranks (34, 42) are rotationally adjusted so that the pivot points (52, 54) of the link (50) are collinear with the axes of rotation of the cranks (40, 48), thereby defining one of the three discrete locations. Additional cranks and links can be provided to define additional discrete locations.

  10. Optical-fiber pyrometer positioning accuracy analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tapetado, A.; García, E.; Díaz-Álvarez, J.; Miguélez, M. H.; Vazquez, C.

    2016-05-01

    The influence of the distance between the fiber end and the machined surface on temperature measurements in a two-color fiber-optic pyrometer is analyzed. The propose fiber-optic pyrometer is capable of measuring highly localized temperatures, while avoiding the use of lenses or fiber bundles, by using a standard graded index glass fiber OM1 with 62.5/125 core and cladding diameters. The fiber is placed very close to the target and below the tool insert. The output optical power at both wavelength bands is theoretically and experimentally analyzed for a temperature of 650°C at different fiber positions in a range of 2mm. The results show that there is no influence of the fiber position on the measured optical power and therefore, on the measured temperature.

  11. Predicting Predictable: Accuracy and Reliability of Earthquake Forecasts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kossobokov, V. G.

    2014-12-01

    Earthquake forecast/prediction is an uncertain profession. The famous Gutenberg-Richter relationship limits magnitude range of prediction to about one unit. Otherwise, the statistics of outcomes would be related to the smallest earthquakes and may be misleading when attributed to the largest earthquakes. Moreover, the intrinsic uncertainty of earthquake sizing allows self-deceptive picking of justification "just from below" the targeted magnitude range. This might be important encouraging evidence but, by no means, can be a "helpful" additive to statistics of a rigid testing that determines reliability and efficiency of a farecast/prediction method. Usually, earthquake prediction is classified in respect to expectation time while overlooking term-less identification of earthquake prone areas, as well as spatial accuracy. The forecasts are often made for a "cell" or "seismic region" whose area is not linked to the size of target earthquakes. This might be another source for making a wrong choice in parameterization of an forecast/prediction method and, eventually, for unsatisfactory performance in a real-time application. Summing up, prediction of time and location of an earthquake of a certain magnitude range can be classified into categories listed in the Table below - Classification of earthquake prediction accuracy Temporal, in years Spatial, in source zone size (L) Long-term 10 Long-range Up to 100 Intermediate-term 1 Middle-range 5-10 Short-term 0.01-0.1 Narrow-range 2-3 Immediate 0.001 Exact 1 Note that a wide variety of possible combinations that exist is much larger than usually considered "short-term exact" one. In principle, such an accurate statement about anticipated seismic extreme might be futile due to the complexities of the Earth's lithosphere, its blocks-and-faults structure, and evidently nonlinear dynamics of the seismic process. The observed scaling of source size and preparation zone with earthquake magnitude implies exponential scales for

  12. Hybrid position/force and positional accuracy controller for a hydraulic manipulator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Unruh, Stanley G.; Faddis, Terry N.; Greenway, Bryan R.; Hibbard, Wilthea

    1995-12-01

    A hybrid position/force controller is presented for a 6 DOF hydraulic manipulator. The controller has been implemented on a Kraft telerobotic slave which has been modified to accommodate a 6 DOF force/torque sensor at the wrist. The controller is implemented within the task frame, and both the position and force are controlled with a non-conventional hybrid control method. Positional accuracy control is maintained at the joint level by using a joint error prediction method based on measured joint torques which have been low-pass filtered. This prediction method eliminates the need for integral gains, which introduce unwanted limit cycling. Dynamic stability is maintained and Cartesian positional error is held to less than 0.2 inches. Conventional hybrid control is based on the ability to control joint torques, but hydraulic actuator torque can not generally be directly controlled. We instead employ a feedback loop which adjusts positional commands along force controlled DOFs until desired end effector force/,moments have been realized. This feedback loop has been implemented in both joint and Cartesian space. The joint space feedback method is based on the observed joint error verses joint torque characteristics used in the positional accuracy control portion. The joint space method has better force tracking capabilities than the Cartesian method, but is not stable for all robot configurations. Cartesian space feedback method has sufficient force tracking for a useful range of tasks, and is stable for all configurations.

  13. High accuracy autonomous navigation using the global positioning system (GPS)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Truong, Son H.; Hart, Roger C.; Shoan, Wendy C.; Wood, Terri; Long, Anne C.; Oza, Dipak H.; Lee, Taesul

    1997-01-01

    The application of global positioning system (GPS) technology to the improvement of the accuracy and economy of spacecraft navigation, is reported. High-accuracy autonomous navigation algorithms are currently being qualified in conjunction with the GPS attitude determination flyer (GADFLY) experiment for the small satellite technology initiative Lewis spacecraft. Preflight performance assessments indicated that these algorithms are able to provide a real time total position accuracy of better than 10 m and a velocity accuracy of better than 0.01 m/s, with selective availability at typical levels. It is expected that the position accuracy will be increased to 2 m if corrections are provided by the GPS wide area augmentation system.

  14. Alaska national hydrography dataset positional accuracy assessment study

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arundel, Samantha; Yamamoto, Kristina H.; Constance, Eric; Mantey, Kim; Vinyard-Houx, Jeremy

    2013-01-01

    Initial visual assessments Wide range in the quality of fit between features in NHD and these new image sources. No statistical analysis has been performed to actually quantify accuracy Determining absolute accuracy is cost prohibitive (must collect independent, well defined test points) Quantitative analysis of relative positional error is feasible.

  15. Parametric Characterization of SGP4 Theory and TLE Positional Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oltrogge, D.; Ramrath, J.

    2014-09-01

    Two-Line Elements, or TLEs, contain mean element state vectors compatible with General Perturbations (GP) singly-averaged semi-analytic orbit theory. This theory, embodied in the SGP4 orbit propagator, provides sufficient accuracy for some (but perhaps not all) orbit operations and SSA tasks. For more demanding tasks, higher accuracy orbit and force model approaches (i.e. Special Perturbations numerical integration or SP) may be required. In recent times, the suitability of TLEs or GP theory for any SSA analysis has been increasingly questioned. Meanwhile, SP is touted as being of high quality and well-suited for most, if not all, SSA applications. Yet the lack of truth or well-known reference orbits that haven't already been adopted for radar and optical sensor network calibration has typically prevented a truly unbiased assessment of such assertions. To gain better insight into the practical limits of applicability for TLEs, SGP4 and the underlying GP theory, the native SGP4 accuracy is parametrically examined for the statistically-significant range of RSO orbit inclinations experienced as a function of all orbit altitudes from LEO through GEO disposal altitude. For each orbit altitude, reference or truth orbits were generated using full force modeling, time-varying space weather, and AGIs HPOP numerical integration orbit propagator. Then, TLEs were optimally fit to these truth orbits. The resulting TLEs were then propagated and positionally differenced with the truth orbits to determine how well the GP theory was able to fit the truth orbits. Resultant statistics characterizing these empirically-derived accuracies are provided. This TLE fit process of truth orbits was intentionally designed to be similar to the JSpOC process operationally used to generate Enhanced GP TLEs for debris objects. This allows us to draw additional conclusions of the expected accuracies of EGP TLEs. In the real world, Orbit Determination (OD) programs aren't provided with dense optical

  16. SHAPES - Spatial, high-accuracy, position-encoding sensor

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nerheim, Noble M.; Blue, Randel C.

    1992-01-01

    Future space systems will require control sensors capable of real-time measurements of position coordinates of many structural locations. Applications for such a sensor include figure and vibration control, rendezvous and docking, and structure assembly verification. The paper discusses an experimental study of SHAPES (spatial, high-accuracy, position-encoding sensor), a 3D position sensor that provides range and two angular positions of laser-illuminated retroreflector targets that mark the locations to be measured. Simultaneous range measurements to multiple targets by a time-of-flight corelation of short laser pulses are made with a CCD-equipped streak tube. Angular positions are measured with a CCD camera. Position measurements of 24 targets with sub-millimeter range accuracy at a 10 Hz update rate have been demonstrated.

  17. COMPASS time synchronization and dissemination—Toward centimetre positioning accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, ZhengBo; Zhao, Lu; Wang, ShiGuang; Zhang, JianWei; Wang, Bo; Wang, LiJun

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we investigate methods to achieve highly accurate time synchronization among the satellites of the COMPASS global navigation satellite system (GNSS). Owing to the special design of COMPASS which implements several geo-stationary satellites (GEO), time synchronization can be highly accurate via microwave links between ground stations to the GEO satellites. Serving as space-borne relay stations, the GEO satellites can further disseminate time and frequency signals to other satellites such as the inclined geo-synchronous (IGSO) and mid-earth orbit (MEO) satellites within the system. It is shown that, because of the accuracy in clock synchronization, the theoretical accuracy of COMPASS positioning and navigation will surpass that of the GPS. In addition, the COMPASS system can function with its entire positioning, navigation, and time-dissemination services even without the ground link, thus making it much more robust and secure. We further show that time dissemination using the COMPASS-GEO satellites to earth-fixed stations can achieve very high accuracy, to reach 100 ps in time dissemination and 3 cm in positioning accuracy, respectively. In this paper, we also analyze two feasible synchronization plans. All special and general relativistic effects related to COMPASS clocks frequency and time shifts are given. We conclude that COMPASS can reach centimeter-level positioning accuracy and discuss potential applications.

  18. Evaluating the accuracy of SHAPE-directed RNA secondary structure predictions.

    PubMed

    Sükösd, Zsuzsanna; Swenson, M Shel; Kjems, Jørgen; Heitsch, Christine E

    2013-03-01

    Recent advances in RNA structure determination include using data from high-throughput probing experiments to improve thermodynamic prediction accuracy. We evaluate the extent and nature of improvements in data-directed predictions for a diverse set of 16S/18S ribosomal sequences using a stochastic model of experimental SHAPE data. The average accuracy for 1000 data-directed predictions always improves over the original minimum free energy (MFE) structure. However, the amount of improvement varies with the sequence, exhibiting a correlation with MFE accuracy. Further analysis of this correlation shows that accurate MFE base pairs are typically preserved in a data-directed prediction, whereas inaccurate ones are not. Thus, the positive predictive value of common base pairs is consistently higher than the directed prediction accuracy. Finally, we confirm sequence dependencies in the directability of thermodynamic predictions and investigate the potential for greater accuracy improvements in the worst performing test sequence.

  19. Operating a real time high accuracy positioning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnston, G.; Hanley, J.; Russell, D.; Vooght, A.

    2003-04-01

    The paper shall review the history and development of real time DGPS services prior to then describing the design of a high accuracy GPS commercial augmentation system and service currently delivering over a wide area to users of precise positioning products. The infrastructure and system shall be explained in relation to the need for high accuracy and high integrity of positioning for users. A comparison of the different techniques for the delivery of data shall be provided to outline the technical approach taken. Examples of the performance of the real time system shall be shown in various regions and modes to outline the current achievable accuracies. Having described and established the current GPS based situation, a review of the potential of the Galileo system shall be presented. Following brief contextual information relating to the Galileo project, core system and services, the paper will identify possible key applications and the main user communities for sub decimetre level precise positioning. The paper will address the Galileo and modernised GPS signals in space that are relevant to commercial precise positioning for the future and will discuss the implications for precise positioning performance. An outline of the proposed architecture shall be described and associated with pointers towards a successful implementation. Central to this discussion will be an assessment of the likely evolution of system infrastructure and user equipment implementation, prospects for new applications and their effect upon the business case for precise positioning services.

  20. Accuracy of the LPM tracking system considering dynamic position changes.

    PubMed

    Ogris, Georg; Leser, Roland; Horsak, Brian; Kornfeind, Philipp; Heller, Mario; Baca, Arnold

    2012-01-01

    This study investigates the accuracy of the tracking system LPM (local position measurement). The goal was to determine detailed error values of the system in the context of sports performance analyses. Six moderately trained male soccer players (amateur level) performed 276 runs on three different courses at six different speeds. Additionally, ten small-sided game plays were carried out. All runs and game plays were recorded with the LPM tracking system and the motion capture system VICON simultaneously. VICON served as the reference system. The absolute error of all LPM position estimations was on average 23.4±20.7 cm. The estimation for average velocities varied between 0.01 km h(-1) and 0.23 km h(-1), the maximum speed estimations differed by up to 2.71 km h(-1). In addition, the results showed that the accuracy of the LPM system is highly dependent on the instantaneous dynamics of the player and decreases in the margins of the observation field. These dependencies were quantified. Considering commonly used applications of position tracking systems in sports (Leser, Ogris, & Baca, 2011), the accuracy of LPM is acceptable for position and velocity estimations. The system provides valuable results for average velocities but seems to be far less reliable when dealing with high dynamic movements and measuring instantaneous velocities.

  1. Correcting Memory Improves Accuracy of Predicted Task Duration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roy, Michael M.; Mitten, Scott T.; Christenfeld, Nicholas J. S.

    2008-01-01

    People are often inaccurate in predicting task duration. The memory bias explanation holds that this error is due to people having incorrect memories of how long previous tasks have taken, and these biased memories cause biased predictions. Therefore, the authors examined the effect on increasing predictive accuracy of correcting memory through…

  2. Theoretical Positioning Accuracy for Serial and Parallel Kinematic Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kurekova, Eva; Halaj, Martin; Omachelová, Milada; Martišovitš, Ilja

    2014-10-01

    Modern production machines employ complex kinematic structures that shall enhance their performance. As those machines are very sophisticated electro-mechanical structures, their design is time consuming and financially demanding. Therefore, designers search for new possibilities how to estimate future properties of the machine as early as in the design phase. The paper gives a brief introduction to the adoption of methodology of measurement uncertainties into the design of production machines. The adapted methodology enables to estimate the theoretical positioning accuracy of the machine end effector that is one of the important indicators of machine performance. Both serial and parallel kinematic structures are considered in the paper. Methodology and sample calculations of theoretical positioning accuracy are presented for serial kinematic structure (represented by advanced plasma cutting head) and parallel kinematic structure, represented by one specific design named Tricept.

  3. Prediction of Rate Constants for Catalytic Reactions with Chemical Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Catlow, C Richard A

    2016-08-01

    Ex machina: A computational method for predicting rate constants for reactions within microporous zeolite catalysts with chemical accuracy has recently been reported. A key feature of this method is a stepwise QM/MM approach that allows accuracy to be achieved while using realistic models with accessible computer resources.

  4. Positioning Accuracy in Otosurgery Measured with Optical Tracking

    PubMed Central

    Óvári, Attila; Neményi, Dóra; Just, Tino; Schuldt, Tobias; Buhr, Anne; Mlynski, Robert; Csókay, András; Pau, Hans-Wilhelm; Valálik, István

    2016-01-01

    Objectives To assess positioning accuracy in otosurgery and to test the impact of the two-handed instrument holding technique and the instrument support technique on surgical precision. To test an otologic training model with optical tracking. Study Design In total, 14 ENT surgeons in the same department with different levels of surgical experience performed static and dynamic tasks with otologic microinstruments under simulated otosurgical conditions. Methods Tip motion of the microinstrument was registered in three dimensions by optical tracking during 10 different tasks simulating surgical steps such as prosthesis crimping and dissection of the middle ear using formalin-fixed temporal bone. Instrument marker trajectories were compared within groups of experienced and less experienced surgeons performing uncompensated or compensated exercises. Results Experienced surgeons have significantly better positioning accuracy than novice ear surgeons in terms of mean displacement values of marker trajectories. The instrument support and the two-handed instrument holding techniques significantly reduce surgeons’ tremor. The laboratory set-up presented in this study provides precise feedback for otosurgeons about their surgical skills and proved to be a useful device for otosurgical training. Conclusions Simple tremor compensation techniques may offer trainees the potential to improve their positioning accuracy to the level of more experienced surgeons. Training in an experimental otologic environment with optical tracking may aid acquisition of technical skills in middle ear surgery and potentially shorten the learning curve. Thus, simulated exercises of surgical steps should be integrated into the training of otosurgeons. PMID:27027500

  5. Assessing the Accuracy of the Precise Point Positioning Technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bisnath, S. B.; Collins, P.; Seepersad, G.

    2012-12-01

    The Precise Point Positioning (PPP) GPS data processing technique has developed over the past 15 years to become a standard method for growing categories of positioning and navigation applications. The technique relies on single receiver point positioning combined with the use of precise satellite orbit and clock information and high-fidelity error modelling. The research presented here uniquely addresses the current accuracy of the technique, explains the limits of performance, and defines paths to improvements. For geodetic purposes, performance refers to daily static position accuracy. PPP processing of over 80 IGS stations over one week results in few millimetre positioning rms error in the north and east components and few centimetres in the vertical (all one sigma values). Larger error statistics for real-time and kinematic processing are also given. GPS PPP with ambiguity resolution processing is also carried out, producing slight improvements over the float solution results. These results are categorised into quality classes in order to analyse the root error causes of the resultant accuracies: "best", "worst", multipath, site displacement effects, satellite availability and geometry, etc. Also of interest in PPP performance is solution convergence period. Static, conventional solutions are slow to converge, with approximately 35 minutes required for 95% of solutions to reach the 20 cm or better horizontal accuracy. Ambiguity resolution can significantly reduce this period without biasing solutions. The definition of a PPP error budget is a complex task even with the resulting numerical assessment, as unlike the epoch-by-epoch processing in the Standard Position Service, PPP processing involving filtering. An attempt is made here to 1) define the magnitude of each error source in terms of range, 2) transform ranging error to position error via Dilution Of Precision (DOP), and 3) scale the DOP through the filtering process. The result is a deeper

  6. Can we estimate the accuracy of ADME-Tox predictions?

    PubMed

    Tetko, Igor V; Bruneau, Pierre; Mewes, Hans-Werner; Rohrer, Douglas C; Poda, Gennadiy I

    2006-08-01

    There have recently been developments in the methods used to access the accuracy of the prediction and applicability domain of absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and toxicity models, and also in the methods used to predict the physicochemical properties of compounds in the early stages of drug development. The methods are classified into two main groups: those based on the analysis of similarity of molecules, and those based on the analysis of calculated properties. An analysis of octanol-water distribution coefficients is used to exemplify the consistency of estimated and calculated accuracy of the ALOGPS program (http://www.vcclab.org) to predict in-house and publicly available datasets.

  7. Accuracy of patient positioning in mantle field irradiation.

    PubMed

    Creutzberg, C L; Visser, A G; De Porre, P M; Meerwaldt, J H; Althof, V G; Levendag, P C

    1992-04-01

    A prospective study of the accuracy of patient positioning in mantle field irradiation was carried out in 13 lymphoma patients treated with curative radiotherapy. Patients were treated in the supine and prone position for anterior and posterior fields, respectively. Individually shaped divergent shielding blocks were placed in a fixed position in a template which was positioned on a tray above the patient. A total number of 94 megavoltage portal films (MV) was analysed and compared to 26 simulation films (SIM). MV-SIM differences were larger for posterior fields than for anterior fields. Regarding the position of the lung shielding blocks, mean MV-SIM differences ranged from 1.3 to 4.4 mm and errors exceeding 1 cm were found in 7.2% of cases. Most discrepancies appeared to be randomly distributed. A 4-5 mm systematic cranial shift of patients in the posterior treatment position was noted. Discrepancies in the position of the laryngeal block, spinal cord shielding block and humerus blocks were small with mean MV-SIM differences ranging from 0.3 to 2.7 mm. Differences between simulation set-up and treatment set-up were modest as compared to error rates reported in the literature. Shielding of tumour-bearing areas did not occur. It was concluded that the present standardised technique of patient positioning and the design of treatment fields results in acceptable error rates. Attention should be directed towards increasing the stability of patients in the prone treatment position in order to further reduce both systematic and random error rates. PMID:1609130

  8. Accuracy of patient positioning in mantle field irradiation.

    PubMed

    Creutzberg, C L; Visser, A G; De Porre, P M; Meerwaldt, J H; Althof, V G; Levendag, P C

    1992-04-01

    A prospective study of the accuracy of patient positioning in mantle field irradiation was carried out in 13 lymphoma patients treated with curative radiotherapy. Patients were treated in the supine and prone position for anterior and posterior fields, respectively. Individually shaped divergent shielding blocks were placed in a fixed position in a template which was positioned on a tray above the patient. A total number of 94 megavoltage portal films (MV) was analysed and compared to 26 simulation films (SIM). MV-SIM differences were larger for posterior fields than for anterior fields. Regarding the position of the lung shielding blocks, mean MV-SIM differences ranged from 1.3 to 4.4 mm and errors exceeding 1 cm were found in 7.2% of cases. Most discrepancies appeared to be randomly distributed. A 4-5 mm systematic cranial shift of patients in the posterior treatment position was noted. Discrepancies in the position of the laryngeal block, spinal cord shielding block and humerus blocks were small with mean MV-SIM differences ranging from 0.3 to 2.7 mm. Differences between simulation set-up and treatment set-up were modest as compared to error rates reported in the literature. Shielding of tumour-bearing areas did not occur. It was concluded that the present standardised technique of patient positioning and the design of treatment fields results in acceptable error rates. Attention should be directed towards increasing the stability of patients in the prone treatment position in order to further reduce both systematic and random error rates.

  9. Accuracy of genomic prediction when combining two related crossbred populations.

    PubMed

    Vallée, A; van Arendonk, J A M; Bovenhuis, H

    2014-10-01

    Charolais bulls are selected for their crossbreed performance when mated to Montbéliard or Holstein dams. To implement genomic prediction, one could build a reference population for each crossbred population independently. An alternative could be to combine both crossbred populations into a single reference population to increase size and accuracy of prediction. The objective of this study was to investigate the accuracy of genomic prediction by combining different crossbred populations. Three scenarios were considered: 1) using 1 crossbred population as reference to predict phenotype of animals from the same crossbred population, 2) combining the 2 crossbred populations into 1 reference to predict phenotype of animals from 1 crossbred population, and 3) using 1 crossbred population as reference to predict phenotype of animals from the other crossbred population. Traits studied were bone thinness, height, and muscular development. Phenotypes and 45,117 SNP genotypes were available for 1,764 Montbéliard × Charolais calves and 447 Holstein × Charolais calves. The population was randomly spilt into 10 subgroups, which were assigned to the validation one by one. To allow fair comparison between scenarios, size of the reference population was kept constant for all scenarios. Breeding values were estimated with BLUP and genomic BLUP. Accuracy of prediction was calculated as the correlation between the EBV and the phenotypic values of the calves in the validation divided by the square root of the heritability. Genomic BLUP showed higher accuracies (between 0.281 and 0.473) than BLUP (between 0.197 and 0.452). Accuracies tended to be highest when prediction was within 1 crossbred population, intermediate when populations were combined into the reference population, and lowest when prediction was across populations. Decrease in accuracy from a prediction within 1 population to a prediction across populations was more pronounced for bone thinness (-27%) and height (-29

  10. Cadastral Positioning Accuracy Improvement: a Case Study in Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hashim, N. M.; Omar, A. H.; Omar, K. M.; Abdullah, N. M.; Yatim, M. H. M.

    2016-09-01

    Cadastral map is a parcel-based information which is specifically designed to define the limitation of boundaries. In Malaysia, the cadastral map is under authority of the Department of Surveying and Mapping Malaysia (DSMM). With the growth of spatial based technology especially Geographical Information System (GIS), DSMM decided to modernize and reform its cadastral legacy datasets by generating an accurate digital based representation of cadastral parcels. These legacy databases usually are derived from paper parcel maps known as certified plan. The cadastral modernization will result in the new cadastral database no longer being based on single and static parcel paper maps, but on a global digital map. Despite the strict process of the cadastral modernization, this reform has raised unexpected queries that remain essential to be addressed. The main focus of this study is to review the issues that have been generated by this transition. The transformed cadastral database should be additionally treated to minimize inherent errors and to fit them to the new satellite based coordinate system with high positional accuracy. This review result will be applied as a foundation for investigation to study the systematic and effectiveness method for Positional Accuracy Improvement (PAI) in cadastral database modernization.

  11. Accuracy of the modified Hardinge approach in acetabular positioning

    PubMed Central

    Goyal, Prateek; Lau, Adrian; McCalden, Richard; Teeter, Matthew G.; Howard, James L.; Lanting, Brent A.

    2016-01-01

    Background The surgical approach chosen for total hip arthroplasty (THA) may affect the positioning of the acetabular component. The purpose of this study was to examine the accuracy in orienting the acetabular component using the modified Hardinge approach. Methods We used our institutional arthroplasty database to identify patients with primary, press-fit, hemispherical acetabular components of a metal-on-polyethylene THA performed between 2003 and 2011. Patients with radiographs obtained 1–3 years after the index procedure were included for measurement of anteversion and inclination angles. Acceptable values of anteversion and abduction angles were defined as 15° ± 10° and 40° ± 10°, respectively. Results We identified 1241 patients from the database, and the modified Hardinge approach was used in 1010 of the patients included in our analysis. The acetabular component was anteverted in the acceptable zone in 54.1% of patients. The abduction angle was within the defined range in 79.2% of patients. Combined anteversion and abduction angles within the defined zone were present in 43.6% of patients. Conclusion Consistent with studies examining accuracy from other approaches, our study reveals that the modified Hardinge approach was only moderately accurate in positioning the acetabular component in the acceptable zone. PMID:27240130

  12. The predictive accuracy of intertemporal-choice models.

    PubMed

    Arfer, Kodi B; Luhmann, Christian C

    2015-05-01

    How do people choose between a smaller reward available sooner and a larger reward available later? Past research has evaluated models of intertemporal choice by measuring goodness of fit or identifying which decision-making anomalies they can accommodate. An alternative criterion for model quality, which is partly antithetical to these standard criteria, is predictive accuracy. We used cross-validation to examine how well 10 models of intertemporal choice could predict behaviour in a 100-trial binary-decision task. Many models achieved the apparent ceiling of 85% accuracy, even with smaller training sets. When noise was added to the training set, however, a simple logistic-regression model we call the difference model performed particularly well. In many situations, between-model differences in predictive accuracy may be small, contrary to long-standing controversy over the modelling question in research on intertemporal choice, but the simplicity and robustness of the difference model recommend it to future use.

  13. Acoustic positioning and orientation prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barmatz, Martin B.; Aveni, Glenn; Putterman, Seth; Rudnick, Joseph

    1990-10-01

    A method is described for use with an acoustic positioner, which enables a determination of the equilibrium position and orientation which an object assumes in a zero gravity environment, as well as restoring forces and torques of an object in an acoustic standing wave field. An acoustic standing wave field is established in the chamber, and the object is held at several different positions near the expected equilibrium position. While the object is held at each position, the center resonant frequency of the chamber is determined, by noting which frequency results in the greatest pressure of the acoustic field. The object position which results in the lowest center resonant frequency is the equilibrium position. The orientation of a nonspherical object is similarly determined, by holding the object in a plurality of different orientations at its equilibrium position, and noting the center resonant frequency for each orientation. The orientation which results in the lowest center resonant frequency is the equilibrium orientation. Where the acoustic frequency is constant, but the chamber length is variable, the equilibrium position or orientation is that which results in the greatest chamber length at the center resonant frequency.

  14. Acoustic positioning and orientation prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Barmatz, Martin B. (Inventor); Aveni, Glenn (Inventor); Putterman, Seth (Inventor); Rudnick, Joseph (Inventor)

    1990-01-01

    A method is described for use with an acoustic positioner, which enables a determination of the equilibrium position and orientation which an object assumes in a zero gravity environment, as well as restoring forces and torques of an object in an acoustic standing wave field. An acoustic standing wave field is established in the chamber, and the object is held at several different positions near the expected equilibrium position. While the object is held at each position, the center resonant frequency of the chamber is determined, by noting which frequency results in the greatest pressure of the acoustic field. The object position which results in the lowest center resonant frequency is the equilibrium position. The orientation of a nonspherical object is similarly determined, by holding the object in a plurality of different orientations at its equilibrium position, and noting the center resonant frequency for each orientation. The orientation which results in the lowest center resonant frequency is the equilibrium orientation. Where the acoustic frequency is constant, but the chamber length is variable, the equilibrium position or orientation is that which results in the greatest chamber length at the center resonant frequency.

  15. Predictive Accuracy of Exercise Stress Testing the Healthy Adult.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lamont, Linda S.

    1981-01-01

    Exercise stress testing provides information on the aerobic capacity, heart rate, and blood pressure responses to graded exercises of a healthy adult. The reliability of exercise tests as a diagnostic procedure is discussed in relation to sensitivity and specificity and predictive accuracy. (JN)

  16. Assessing genomic selection prediction accuracy in a dynamic barley breeding

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Genomic selection is a method to improve quantitative traits in crops and livestock by estimating breeding values of selection candidates using phenotype and genome-wide marker data sets. Prediction accuracy has been evaluated through simulation and cross-validation, however validation based on prog...

  17. High accuracy operon prediction method based on STRING database scores.

    PubMed

    Taboada, Blanca; Verde, Cristina; Merino, Enrique

    2010-07-01

    We present a simple and highly accurate computational method for operon prediction, based on intergenic distances and functional relationships between the protein products of contiguous genes, as defined by STRING database (Jensen,L.J., Kuhn,M., Stark,M., Chaffron,S., Creevey,C., Muller,J., Doerks,T., Julien,P., Roth,A., Simonovic,M. et al. (2009) STRING 8-a global view on proteins and their functional interactions in 630 organisms. Nucleic Acids Res., 37, D412-D416). These two parameters were used to train a neural network on a subset of experimentally characterized Escherichia coli and Bacillus subtilis operons. Our predictive model was successfully tested on the set of experimentally defined operons in E. coli and B. subtilis, with accuracies of 94.6 and 93.3%, respectively. As far as we know, these are the highest accuracies ever obtained for predicting bacterial operons. Furthermore, in order to evaluate the predictable accuracy of our model when using an organism's data set for the training procedure, and a different organism's data set for testing, we repeated the E. coli operon prediction analysis using a neural network trained with B. subtilis data, and a B. subtilis analysis using a neural network trained with E. coli data. Even for these cases, the accuracies reached with our method were outstandingly high, 91.5 and 93%, respectively. These results show the potential use of our method for accurately predicting the operons of any other organism. Our operon predictions for fully-sequenced genomes are available at http://operons.ibt.unam.mx/OperonPredictor/. PMID:20385580

  18. Accuracy of perioperative mandibular positions in orthognathic surgery.

    PubMed

    Borba, A M; Ribeiro-Junior, O; Brozoski, M A; Cé, P S; Espinosa, M M; Deboni, M C Z; Miloro, M; Naclério-Homem, M G

    2014-08-01

    Mandibular position is an important parameter used for the diagnosis of dentofacial deformities, as well as for orthognathic surgery planning and execution. Centric relation (anterior and superior relationship of the mandibular condyles interposed by the thinnest portion of their disks against the articular eminencies), centric occlusion (when lower teeth contact upper teeth at centric relation), and maximal intercuspation (complete interdigitation of lower and upper teeth) are not often addressed as factors that influence the results of orthognathic surgery, although these relationships are critical to ensure accuracy during the surgery. The present study assessed occlusal measurements taken before and after the induction of general anaesthesia from consecutive orthognathic surgery subjects. The variables assessed included the differences between these occlusal measurements, patient age, gender, type of deformity, and type of proposed orthognathic surgical procedure. The results demonstrated statistically significant differences for mandibular retrusion from maximal intercuspation to centric occlusion position, whereas the mandible appeared not to change significantly from centric occlusion after the induction of general anaesthesia. Patient age and the type of deformity appeared to influence the results. While in most instances centric occlusion can be adequately reproduced under general anaesthesia, for some specific orthognathic cases more accurate results might be obtained if the mandible-first sequence is used.

  19. Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, Timothy K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

    1991-01-01

    Modeling uncertainty is defined in terms of the difference between predicted and measured eigenvalues and eigenvectors. Data compiled from 22 sets of analysis/test results was used to create statistical databases for large truss-type space structures and both pretest and posttest models of conventional satellite-type space structures. Modeling uncertainty is propagated through the model to produce intervals of uncertainty on frequency response functions, both amplitude and phase. This methodology was used successfully to evaluate the predictive accuracy of several structures, including the NASA CSI Evolutionary Structure tested at Langley Research Center. Test measurements for this structure were within + one-sigma intervals of predicted accuracy for the most part, demonstrating the validity of the methodology and computer code.

  20. Accuracy of genomic predictions in Bos indicus (Nellore) cattle

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Nellore cattle play an important role in beef production in tropical systems and there is great interest in determining if genomic selection can contribute to accelerate genetic improvement of production and fertility in this breed. We present the first results of the implementation of genomic prediction in a Bos indicus (Nellore) population. Methods Influential bulls were genotyped with the Illumina Bovine HD chip in order to assess genomic predictive ability for weight and carcass traits, gestation length, scrotal circumference and two selection indices. 685 samples and 320 238 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were used in the analyses. A forward-prediction scheme was adopted to predict the genomic breeding values (DGV). In the training step, the estimated breeding values (EBV) of bulls were deregressed (dEBV) and used as pseudo-phenotypes to estimate marker effects using four methods: genomic BLUP with or without a residual polygenic effect (GBLUP20 and GBLUP0, respectively), a mixture model (Bayes C) and Bayesian LASSO (BLASSO). Empirical accuracies of the resulting genomic predictions were assessed based on the correlation between DGV and dEBV for the testing group. Results Accuracies of genomic predictions ranged from 0.17 (navel at weaning) to 0.74 (finishing precocity). Across traits, Bayesian regression models (Bayes C and BLASSO) were more accurate than GBLUP. The average empirical accuracies were 0.39 (GBLUP0), 0.40 (GBLUP20) and 0.44 (Bayes C and BLASSO). Bayes C and BLASSO tended to produce deflated predictions (i.e. slope of the regression of dEBV on DGV greater than 1). Further analyses suggested that higher-than-expected accuracies were observed for traits for which EBV means differed significantly between two breeding subgroups that were identified in a principal component analysis based on genomic relationships. Conclusions Bayesian regression models are of interest for future applications of genomic selection in this population

  1. Prediction of OCR accuracy using simple image features

    SciTech Connect

    Blando, L.R.; Kanai, Junichi; Nartker, T.A.

    1995-04-01

    A classifier for predicting the character accuracy of a given page achieved by any Optical Character Recognition (OCR) system is presented. This classifier is based on measuring the amount of white speckle, the amount of character fragments, and overall size information in the page. No output from the OCR system is used. The given page is classified as either good quality (i.e., high OCR accuracy expected) or poor (i.e., low OCR accuracy expected). Six OCR systems processed two different sets of test data: a set of 439 pages obtained from technical and scientific documents and a set of 200 pages obtained from magazines. For every system, approximately 85% of the pages in each data set were correctly predicted. The performance of this classifier is also compared with the ideal-case performance of a prediction method based upon the number of reject markers in OCR generated text. In several cases, this method matched or exceeded the performance of the reject based approach.

  2. Wind Prediction Accuracy for Air Traffic Management Decision Support Tools

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Cole, Rod; Green, Steve; Jardin, Matt; Schwartz, Barry; Benjamin, Stan

    2000-01-01

    The performance of Air Traffic Management and flight deck decision support tools depends in large part on the accuracy of the supporting 4D trajectory predictions. This is particularly relevant to conflict prediction and active advisories for the resolution of conflicts and the conformance with of traffic-flow management flow-rate constraints (e.g., arrival metering / required time of arrival). Flight test results have indicated that wind prediction errors may represent the largest source of trajectory prediction error. The tests also discovered relatively large errors (e.g., greater than 20 knots), existing in pockets of space and time critical to ATM DST performance (one or more sectors, greater than 20 minutes), are inadequately represented by the classic RMS aggregate prediction-accuracy studies of the past. To facilitate the identification and reduction of DST-critical wind-prediction errors, NASA has lead a collaborative research and development activity with MIT Lincoln Laboratories and the Forecast Systems Lab of the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This activity, begun in 1996, has focussed on the development of key metrics for ATM DST performance, assessment of wind-prediction skill for state of the art systems, and development/validation of system enhancements to improve skill. A 13 month study was conducted for the Denver Center airspace in 1997. Two complementary wind-prediction systems were analyzed and compared to the forecast performance of the then standard 60 km Rapid Update Cycle - version 1 (RUC-1). One system, developed by NOAA, was the prototype 40-km RUC-2 that became operational at NCEP in 1999. RUC-2 introduced a faster cycle (1 hr vs. 3 hr) and improved mesoscale physics. The second system, Augmented Winds (AW), is a prototype en route wind application developed by MITLL based on the Integrated Terminal Wind System (ITWS). AW is run at a local facility (Center) level, and updates RUC predictions based on an

  3. Accuracy of the VO2peak prediction equation in firefighters

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background A leading contributing factor to firefighter injury and death is lack of fitness. Therefore, the Fire Service Joint Labor Management Wellness-Fitness Initiative (WFI) was established that includes a focus on providing fitness assessments to all fire service personnel. The current fitness assessment includes a submaximal exercise test protocol and associated prediction equation to predict individual VO2peak as a measure of fitness. There is limited information on the accuracy, precision, and sources of error of this prediction equation. This study replicated previous research by validating the accuracy of the WFI VO2peak prediction equation for a group of firefighters and further examining potential sources of error for an individual firefighters’ assessment. Methods The sample consisted of 22 firefighters who completed a maximal exercise test protocol similar to the WFI submaximal protocol, but the test was terminated when firefighters reached a maximal level of exertion (i.e., measured VO2peak). We then calculated the predicted VO2peak based on the WFI prediction equation along with individual firefighters’ body mass index (BMI) and 85% of maximum heart rate. The data were analyzed using paired samples t-tests in SPSS v. 21.0. Results The difference between predicted and measured VO2peak was -0.77 ± 8.35 mL•kg-1•min-1. However, there was a weak, statistically non-significant association between measured VO2peak and predicted VO2peak (R2 = 0.09, F(1,21) = 2.05, p = 0.17). The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC = 0.215, p > 0.05) and Pearson (r = 0.31, p = 0.17) and Spearman (ρ = 0.28, p = 0.21) correlation coefficients were small. The standard error of the estimate (SEE) was 8.5 mL•kg-1•min-1. Further, both age and baseline fitness level were associated with increased inaccuracy of the prediction equation. Conclusions We provide data on the inaccuracy and sources of error for the WFI VO2peak

  4. Using Genetic Distance to Infer the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction.

    PubMed

    Scutari, Marco; Mackay, Ian; Balding, David

    2016-09-01

    The prediction of phenotypic traits using high-density genomic data has many applications such as the selection of plants and animals of commercial interest; and it is expected to play an increasing role in medical diagnostics. Statistical models used for this task are usually tested using cross-validation, which implicitly assumes that new individuals (whose phenotypes we would like to predict) originate from the same population the genomic prediction model is trained on. In this paper we propose an approach based on clustering and resampling to investigate the effect of increasing genetic distance between training and target populations when predicting quantitative traits. This is important for plant and animal genetics, where genomic selection programs rely on the precision of predictions in future rounds of breeding. Therefore, estimating how quickly predictive accuracy decays is important in deciding which training population to use and how often the model has to be recalibrated. We find that the correlation between true and predicted values decays approximately linearly with respect to either FST or mean kinship between the training and the target populations. We illustrate this relationship using simulations and a collection of data sets from mice, wheat and human genetics. PMID:27589268

  5. Using Genetic Distance to Infer the Accuracy of Genomic Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Scutari, Marco; Mackay, Ian

    2016-01-01

    The prediction of phenotypic traits using high-density genomic data has many applications such as the selection of plants and animals of commercial interest; and it is expected to play an increasing role in medical diagnostics. Statistical models used for this task are usually tested using cross-validation, which implicitly assumes that new individuals (whose phenotypes we would like to predict) originate from the same population the genomic prediction model is trained on. In this paper we propose an approach based on clustering and resampling to investigate the effect of increasing genetic distance between training and target populations when predicting quantitative traits. This is important for plant and animal genetics, where genomic selection programs rely on the precision of predictions in future rounds of breeding. Therefore, estimating how quickly predictive accuracy decays is important in deciding which training population to use and how often the model has to be recalibrated. We find that the correlation between true and predicted values decays approximately linearly with respect to either FST or mean kinship between the training and the target populations. We illustrate this relationship using simulations and a collection of data sets from mice, wheat and human genetics. PMID:27589268

  6. Predicting Nucleosome Positioning Using Multiple Evidence Tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reynolds, Sheila M.; Weng, Zhiping; Bilmes, Jeff A.; Noble, William Stafford

    We describe a probabilistic model, implemented as a dynamic Bayesian network, that can be used to predict nucleosome positioning along a chromosome based on one or more genomic input tracks containing position-specific information (evidence). Previous models have either made predictions based on primary DNA sequence alone, or have been used to infer nucleosome positions from experimental data. Our framework permits the combination of these two distinct types of information. We show how this flexible framework can be used to make predictions based on either sequence-model scores or experimental data alone, or by using the two in combination to interpret the experimental data and fill in gaps. The model output represents the posterior probability, at each position along the chromosome, that a nucleosome core overlaps that position, given the evidence. This posterior probability is computed by integrating the information contained in the input evidence tracks along the entire input sequence, and fitting the evidence to a simple grammar of alternating nucleosome cores and linkers. In addition to providing a novel mechanism for the prediction of nucleosome positioning from arbitrary heterogeneous data sources, this framework is also applicable to other genomic segmentation tasks in which local scores are available from models or from data that can be interpreted as defining a probability assignment over labels at that position. The ability to combine sequence-based predictions and data from experimental assays is a significant and novel contribution to the ongoing research regarding the primary structure of chromatin and its effects upon gene regulation.

  7. Delta-Beta Coupled Oscillations Underlie Temporal Prediction Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Arnal, Luc H; Doelling, Keith B; Poeppel, David

    2015-09-01

    The ability to generate temporal predictions is fundamental for adaptive behavior. Precise timing at the time-scale of seconds is critical, for instance to predict trajectories or to select relevant information. What mechanisms form the basis for such accurate timing? Recent evidence suggests that (1) temporal predictions adjust sensory selection by controlling neural oscillations in time and (2) the motor system plays an active role in inferring "when" events will happen. We hypothesized that oscillations in the delta and beta bands are instrumental in predicting the occurrence of auditory targets. Participants listened to brief rhythmic tone sequences and detected target delays while undergoing magnetoencephalography recording. Prior to target occurrence, we found that coupled delta (1-3 Hz) and beta (18-22 Hz) oscillations temporally align with upcoming targets and bias decisions towards correct responses, suggesting that delta-beta coupled oscillations underpin prediction accuracy. Subsequent to target occurrence, subjects update their decisions using the magnitude of the alpha-band (10-14 Hz) response as internal evidence of target timing. These data support a model in which the orchestration of oscillatory dynamics between sensory and motor systems is exploited to accurately select sensory information in time. PMID:24846147

  8. Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

    PubMed

    Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

    2016-08-01

    The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. PMID:27184070

  9. Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

    PubMed

    Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

    2016-08-01

    The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis.

  10. Modelled three-dimensional suction accuracy predicts prey capture success in three species of centrarchid fishes.

    PubMed

    Kane, Emily A; Higham, Timothy E

    2014-06-01

    Prey capture is critical for survival, and differences in correctly positioning and timing a strike (accuracy) are likely related to variation in capture success. However, an ability to quantify accuracy under natural conditions, particularly for fishes, is lacking. We developed a predictive model of suction hydrodynamics and applied it to natural behaviours using three-dimensional kinematics of three centrarchid fishes capturing evasive and non-evasive prey. A spheroid ingested volume of water (IVW) with dimensions predicted by peak gape and ram speed was verified with known hydrodynamics for two species. Differences in capture success occurred primarily with evasive prey (64-96% success). Micropterus salmoides had the greatest ram and gape when capturing evasive prey, resulting in the largest and most elongate IVW. Accuracy predicted capture success, although other factors may also be important. The lower accuracy previously observed in M. salmoides was not replicated, but this is likely due to more natural conditions in our study. Additionally, we discuss the role of modulation and integrated behaviours in shaping the IVW and determining accuracy. With our model, accuracy is a more accessible performance measure for suction-feeding fishes, which can be used to explore macroevolutionary patterns of prey capture evolution. PMID:24718455

  11. Modelled three-dimensional suction accuracy predicts prey capture success in three species of centrarchid fishes

    PubMed Central

    Kane, Emily A.; Higham, Timothy E.

    2014-01-01

    Prey capture is critical for survival, and differences in correctly positioning and timing a strike (accuracy) are likely related to variation in capture success. However, an ability to quantify accuracy under natural conditions, particularly for fishes, is lacking. We developed a predictive model of suction hydrodynamics and applied it to natural behaviours using three-dimensional kinematics of three centrarchid fishes capturing evasive and non-evasive prey. A spheroid ingested volume of water (IVW) with dimensions predicted by peak gape and ram speed was verified with known hydrodynamics for two species. Differences in capture success occurred primarily with evasive prey (64–96% success). Micropterus salmoides had the greatest ram and gape when capturing evasive prey, resulting in the largest and most elongate IVW. Accuracy predicted capture success, although other factors may also be important. The lower accuracy previously observed in M. salmoides was not replicated, but this is likely due to more natural conditions in our study. Additionally, we discuss the role of modulation and integrated behaviours in shaping the IVW and determining accuracy. With our model, accuracy is a more accessible performance measure for suction-feeding fishes, which can be used to explore macroevolutionary patterns of prey capture evolution. PMID:24718455

  12. An Upper Bound for Accuracy of Prediction Using GBLUP

    PubMed Central

    Karaman, Emre; Cheng, Hao; Firat, Mehmet Z.; Garrick, Dorian J.; Fernando, Rohan L.

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at characterizing the asymptotic behavior of genomic prediction R2 as the size of the reference population increases for common or rare QTL alleles through simulations. Haplotypes derived from whole-genome sequence of 85 Caucasian individuals from the 1,000 Genomes Project were used to simulate random mating in a population of 10,000 individuals for at least 100 generations to create the LD structure in humans for a large number of individuals. To reduce computational demands, only SNPs within a 0.1M region of each of the first 5 chromosomes were used in simulations, and therefore, the total genome length simulated was 0.5M. When the genome length is 30M, to get the same genomic prediction R2 as with a 0.5M genome would require a reference population 60 fold larger. Three scenarios were considered varying in minor allele frequency distributions of markers and QTL, for h2 = 0.8 resembling height in humans. Total number of markers was 4,200 and QTL were 70 for each scenario. In this study, we considered the prediction accuracy in terms of an estimability problem, and thereby provided an upper bound for reliability of prediction, and thus, for prediction R2. Genomic prediction methods GBLUP, BayesB and BayesC were compared. Our results imply that for human height variable selection methods BayesB and BayesC applied to a 30M genome have no advantage over GBLUP when the size of reference population was small (<6,000 individuals), but are superior as more individuals are included in the reference population. All methods become asymptotically equivalent in terms of prediction R2, which approaches genomic heritability when the size of the reference population reaches 480,000 individuals. PMID:27529480

  13. An Upper Bound for Accuracy of Prediction Using GBLUP.

    PubMed

    Karaman, Emre; Cheng, Hao; Firat, Mehmet Z; Garrick, Dorian J; Fernando, Rohan L

    2016-01-01

    This study aims at characterizing the asymptotic behavior of genomic prediction R2 as the size of the reference population increases for common or rare QTL alleles through simulations. Haplotypes derived from whole-genome sequence of 85 Caucasian individuals from the 1,000 Genomes Project were used to simulate random mating in a population of 10,000 individuals for at least 100 generations to create the LD structure in humans for a large number of individuals. To reduce computational demands, only SNPs within a 0.1M region of each of the first 5 chromosomes were used in simulations, and therefore, the total genome length simulated was 0.5M. When the genome length is 30M, to get the same genomic prediction R2 as with a 0.5M genome would require a reference population 60 fold larger. Three scenarios were considered varying in minor allele frequency distributions of markers and QTL, for h2 = 0.8 resembling height in humans. Total number of markers was 4,200 and QTL were 70 for each scenario. In this study, we considered the prediction accuracy in terms of an estimability problem, and thereby provided an upper bound for reliability of prediction, and thus, for prediction R2. Genomic prediction methods GBLUP, BayesB and BayesC were compared. Our results imply that for human height variable selection methods BayesB and BayesC applied to a 30M genome have no advantage over GBLUP when the size of reference population was small (<6,000 individuals), but are superior as more individuals are included in the reference population. All methods become asymptotically equivalent in terms of prediction R2, which approaches genomic heritability when the size of the reference population reaches 480,000 individuals. PMID:27529480

  14. On the Accuracy and Limits of Peptide Fragmentation Spectrum Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Li, Sujun; Arnold, Randy J.; Tang, Haixu; Radivojac, Predrag

    2011-01-01

    We estimated the reproducibility of tandem mass fragmentation spectra for the widely-used collision-induced dissociation (CID) instruments. Using the Pearson correlation coefficient as a measure of spectral similarity, we found that the within-experiment reproducibility of fragment ion intensities is very high (about 0.85). However, across different experiments and instrument types/setups, the correlation decreases by more than 15% (to about 0.70). We further investigated the accuracy of current predictors of peptide fragmentation spectra and found that they are more accurate than the ad-hoc models generally used by search engines (e.g. SEQUEST) and, surprisingly, approaching the empirical upper limit set by the average across-experiment spectral reproducibility (especially for charge +1 and charge +2 precursor ions). These results provide evidence that, in terms of accuracy of modeling, predicted peptide fragmentation spectra provide a viable alternative to spectral libraries for peptide identification, with a higher coverage of peptides and lower storage requirements. Furthermore, using five data sets of proteome digests by two different proteases, we find that PeptideART (a data-driven machine learning approach) is generally more accurate than MassAnalyzer (an approach based on a kinetic model for peptide fragmentation) in predicting fragmentation spectra, but that both models are significantly more accurate than the ad-hoc models. Availability: PeptideART is freely available at www.informatics.indiana.edu/predrag. PMID:21175207

  15. Reward positivity elicited by predictive cues.

    PubMed

    Holroyd, Clay B; Krigolson, Olav E; Lee, Seung

    2011-03-30

    A recent theory holds that a component of the human event-related brain potential called the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal. We investigated this idea in gambling-like task in which, on each trial, a visual stimulus predicted a subsequent rewarding or nonrewarding outcome with 80% probability. Consistent with earlier results, we found that the reward positivity was larger to unexpected than to expected outcomes. In addition, we found that the predictive cues also elicited a reward positivity, as proposed by the theory. These results indicate that the reward positivity reflects the initial assessment of whether a trial will end in success or failure and the reappraisal of that information once the outcome actually occurs.

  16. How a GNSS Receiver Is Held May Affect Static Horizontal Position Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Weaver, Steven A; Ucar, Zennure; Bettinger, Pete; Merry, Krista

    2015-01-01

    The static horizontal position accuracy of a mapping-grade GNSS receiver was tested in two forest types over two seasons, and subsequently was tested in one forest type against open sky conditions in the winter season. The main objective was to determine whether the holding position during data collection would result in significantly different static horizontal position accuracy. Additionally, we wanted to determine whether the time of year (season), forest type, or environmental variables had an influence on accuracy. In general, the F4Devices Flint GNSS receiver was found to have mean static horizontal position accuracy levels within the ranges typically expected for this general type of receiver (3 to 5 m) when differential correction was not employed. When used under forest cover, in some cases the GNSS receiver provided a higher level of static horizontal position accuracy when held vertically, as opposed to held at an angle or horizontally (the more natural positions), perhaps due to the orientation of the antenna within the receiver, or in part due to multipath or the inability to use certain satellite signals. Therefore, due to the fact that numerous variables may affect static horizontal position accuracy, we only conclude that there is weak to moderate evidence that the results of holding position are significant. Statistical test results also suggest that the season of data collection had no significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy, and results suggest that atmospheric variables had weak correlation with horizontal position accuracy. Forest type was found to have a significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy in one aspect of one test, yet otherwise there was little evidence that forest type affected horizontal position accuracy. Since the holding position was found in some cases to be significant with regard to the static horizontal position accuracy of positions collected in forests, it may be beneficial to have an

  17. How a GNSS Receiver Is Held May Affect Static Horizontal Position Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Steven A.; Ucar, Zennure; Bettinger, Pete; Merry, Krista

    2015-01-01

    The static horizontal position accuracy of a mapping-grade GNSS receiver was tested in two forest types over two seasons, and subsequently was tested in one forest type against open sky conditions in the winter season. The main objective was to determine whether the holding position during data collection would result in significantly different static horizontal position accuracy. Additionally, we wanted to determine whether the time of year (season), forest type, or environmental variables had an influence on accuracy. In general, the F4Devices Flint GNSS receiver was found to have mean static horizontal position accuracy levels within the ranges typically expected for this general type of receiver (3 to 5 m) when differential correction was not employed. When used under forest cover, in some cases the GNSS receiver provided a higher level of static horizontal position accuracy when held vertically, as opposed to held at an angle or horizontally (the more natural positions), perhaps due to the orientation of the antenna within the receiver, or in part due to multipath or the inability to use certain satellite signals. Therefore, due to the fact that numerous variables may affect static horizontal position accuracy, we only conclude that there is weak to moderate evidence that the results of holding position are significant. Statistical test results also suggest that the season of data collection had no significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy, and results suggest that atmospheric variables had weak correlation with horizontal position accuracy. Forest type was found to have a significant effect on static horizontal position accuracy in one aspect of one test, yet otherwise there was little evidence that forest type affected horizontal position accuracy. Since the holding position was found in some cases to be significant with regard to the static horizontal position accuracy of positions collected in forests, it may be beneficial to have an

  18. Accuracy Improvement for Predicting Parkinson’s Disease Progression

    PubMed Central

    Nilashi, Mehrbakhsh; Ibrahim, Othman; Ahani, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a member of a larger group of neuromotor diseases marked by the progressive death of dopamineproducing cells in the brain. Providing computational tools for Parkinson disease using a set of data that contains medical information is very desirable for alleviating the symptoms that can help the amount of people who want to discover the risk of disease at an early stage. This paper proposes a new hybrid intelligent system for the prediction of PD progression using noise removal, clustering and prediction methods. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Expectation Maximization (EM) are respectively employed to address the multi-collinearity problems in the experimental datasets and clustering the data. We then apply Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) for prediction of PD progression. Experimental results on public Parkinson’s datasets show that the proposed method remarkably improves the accuracy of prediction of PD progression. The hybrid intelligent system can assist medical practitioners in the healthcare practice for early detection of Parkinson disease. PMID:27686748

  19. Prediction Accuracy of Error Rates for MPTB Space Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buchner, S. P.; Campbell, A. B.; Davis, D.; McMorrow, D.; Petersen, E. L.; Stassinopoulos, E. G.; Ritter, J. C.

    1998-01-01

    This paper addresses the accuracy of radiation-induced upset-rate predictions in space using the results of ground-based measurements together with standard environmental and device models. The study is focused on two part types - 16 Mb NEC DRAM's (UPD4216) and 1 Kb SRAM's (AMD93L422) - both of which are currently in space on board the Microelectronics and Photonics Test Bed (MPTB). To date, ground-based measurements of proton-induced single event upset (SEM cross sections as a function of energy have been obtained and combined with models of the proton environment to predict proton-induced error rates in space. The role played by uncertainties in the environmental models will be determined by comparing the modeled radiation environment with the actual environment measured aboard MPTB. Heavy-ion induced upsets have also been obtained from MPTB and will be compared with the "predicted" error rate following ground testing that will be done in the near future. These results should help identify sources of uncertainty in predictions of SEU rates in space.

  20. Accuracy of Four Tooth Size Prediction Methods on Malay Population

    PubMed Central

    Mahmoud, Belal Khaled; Abu Asab, Saifeddin Hamed I.; Taib, Haslina

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To examine the accuracy of Moyers 50%, Tanaka and Johnston, Ling and Wong and Jaroontham and Godfrey methods in predicting the mesio-distal crown width of the permanent canines and premolars (C + P1 + P2) in Malay population. Materials and Methods. The study models of 240 Malay children (120 males and 120 females) aged 14 to 18 years, all free of any signs of dental pathology or anomalies, were measured using a digital caliper accurate to 0.01 mm. The predicted widths (C + P1 + P2) in both arches derived from the tested prediction equations were compared with the actual measured widths. Results. Moyers and Tanaka and Johnston methods showed significant difference between the actual and predicted widths of (C + P1 + P2) for both sexes. Ling and Wong method also showed statistically significant difference for males, however, there was no significant difference for females. Jaroontham and Godfrey method showed statistical significant difference for females, but the male values did not show any significant difference. Conclusion. For male Malay, the method proposed by Jaroontham and Godfrey for male Thai proved to be highly accurate. For female Malay, the method proposed by Ling and Wong for southern Chinese females proved to be highly accurate. PMID:23209918

  1. Blind Prediction of Interfacial Water Positions in CAPRI

    PubMed Central

    Moal, Iain H.; Bates, Paul A.; Kastritis, Panagiotis L.; Melquiond, Adrien S.J.; Karaca, Ezgi; Schmitz, Christophe; van Dijk, Marc; Bonvin, Alexandre M.J.J.; Eisenstein, Miriam; Jiménez-García, Brian; Grosdidier, Solène; Solernou, Albert; Pérez-Cano, Laura; Pallara, Chiara; Fernández-Recio, Juan; Xu, Jianqing; Muthu, Pravin; Kilambi, Krishna Praneeth; Gray, Jeffrey J.; Grudinin, Sergei; Derevyanko, Georgy; Mitchell, Julie C.; Wieting, John; Kanamori, Eiji; Tsuchiya, Yuko; Murakami, Yoichi; Sarmiento, Joy; Standley, Daron M.; Shirota, Matsuyuki; Kinoshita, Kengo; Nakamura, Haruki; Chavent, Matthieu; Ritchie, David W.; Park, Hahnbeom; Ko, Junsu; Lee, Hasup; Seok, Chaok; Shen, Yang; Kozakov, Dima; Vajda, Sandor; Kundrotas, Petras J.; Vakser, Ilya A.; Pierce, Brian G.; Hwang, Howook; Vreven, Thom; Weng, Zhiping; Buch, Idit; Farkash, Efrat; Wolfson, Haim J.; Zacharias, Martin; Qin, Sanbo; Zhou, Huan-Xiang; Huang, Shen-You; Zou, Xiaoqin; Wojdyla, Justyna A.; Kleanthous, Colin; Wodak, Shoshana J.

    2015-01-01

    We report the first assessment of blind predictions of water positions at protein-protein interfaces, performed as part of the CAPRI (Critical Assessment of Predicted Interactions) community-wide experiment. Groups submitting docking predictions for the complex of the DNase domain of colicin E2 and Im2 immunity protein (CAPRI target 47), were invited to predict the positions of interfacial water molecules using the method of their choice. The predictions – 20 groups submitted a total of 195 models – were assessed by measuring the recall fraction of water-mediated protein contacts. Of the 176 high or medium quality docking models – a very good docking performance per se – only 44% had a recall fraction above 0.3, and a mere 6% above 0.5. The actual water positions were in general predicted to an accuracy level no better than 1.5 Å, and even in good models about half of the contacts represented false positives. This notwithstanding, three hotspot interface water positions were quite well predicted, and so was one of the water positions that is believed to stabilize the loop that confers specificity in these complexes. Overall the best interface water predictions was achieved by groups that also produced high quality docking models, indicating that accurate modelling of the protein portion is a determinant factor. The use of established molecular mechanics force fields, coupled to sampling and optimization procedures also seemed to confer an advantage. Insights gained from this analysis should help improve the prediction of protein-water interactions and their role in stabilizing protein complexes. PMID:24155158

  2. General Theory versus ENA Theory: Comparing Their Predictive Accuracy and Scope.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Lee; Hoskin, Anthony; Hartley, Richard; Walsh, Anthony; Widmayer, Alan; Ratnasingam, Malini

    2015-12-01

    General theory attributes criminal behavior primarily to low self-control, whereas evolutionary neuroandrogenic (ENA) theory envisions criminality as being a crude form of status-striving promoted by high brain exposure to androgens. General theory predicts that self-control will be negatively correlated with risk-taking, while ENA theory implies that these two variables should actually be positively correlated. According to ENA theory, traits such as pain tolerance and muscularity will be positively associated with risk-taking and criminality while general theory makes no predictions concerning these relationships. Data from Malaysia and the United States are used to test 10 hypotheses derived from one or both of these theories. As predicted by both theories, risk-taking was positively correlated with criminality in both countries. However, contrary to general theory and consistent with ENA theory, the correlation between self-control and risk-taking was positive in both countries. General theory's prediction of an inverse correlation between low self-control and criminality was largely supported by the U.S. data but only weakly supported by the Malaysian data. ENA theory's predictions of positive correlations between pain tolerance, muscularity, and offending were largely confirmed. For the 10 hypotheses tested, ENA theory surpassed general theory in predictive scope and accuracy.

  3. Global positioning system measurements for crustal deformation: Precision and accuracy

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Prescott, W.H.; Davis, J.L.; Svarc, J.L.

    1989-01-01

    Analysis of 27 repeated observations of Global Positioning System (GPS) position-difference vectors, up to 11 kilometers in length, indicates that the standard deviation of the measurements is 4 millimeters for the north component, 6 millimeters for the east component, and 10 to 20 millimeters for the vertical component. The uncertainty grows slowly with increasing vector length. At 225 kilometers, the standard deviation of the measurement is 6, 11, and 40 millimeters for the north, east, and up components, respectively. Measurements with GPS and Geodolite, an electromagnetic distance-measuring system, over distances of 10 to 40 kilometers agree within 0.2 part per million. Measurements with GPS and very long baseline interferometry of the 225-kilometer vector agree within 0.05 part per million.

  4. Global positioning system measurements for crustal deformation: precision and accuracy.

    PubMed

    Prescott, W H; Davis, J L; Svarc, J L

    1989-06-16

    Analysis of 27 repeated observations of Global Positioning System (GPS) position-difference vectors, up to 11 kilometers in length, indicates that the standard deviation of the measurements is 4 millimeters for the north component, 6 millimeters for the east component, and 10 to 20 millimeters for the vertical component. The uncertainty grows slowly with increasing vector length. At 225 kilometers, the standard deviation of the measurement is 6, 11, and 40 millimeters for the north, east, and up components, respectively. Measurements with GPS and Geodolite, an electromagnetic distance-measuring system, over distances of 10 to 40 kilometers agree within 0.2 part per million. Measurements with GPS and very long baseline interferometry of the 225-kilometer vector agree within 0.05 part per million. PMID:17820661

  5. Prediction Accuracy: The Role of Feedback in 6th Graders' Recall Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Al-Harthy, Ibrahim S.

    2016-01-01

    The current study focused on the role of feedback on students' prediction accuracy (calibration). This phenomenon has been widely studied, but questions remain about how best to improve it. In the current investigation, fifty-seven students from sixth grade were randomly assigned to control and experimental groups. Thirty pictures were chosen from…

  6. Effects of spacecraft reflections on RF interferometer position location accuracy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wallace, R. G.; Ward, F. C.

    1984-01-01

    This report describes one of three study tasks related to the application of an RF interferometer aboard a low-orbiting spacecraft to determine the location of ground-based transmitters. Computer modeling was used to estimate the error in the measured signal angle-of-arrival caused by reflection and diffraction off the spacecraft. Existing computer codes (NEC-BSC) were modified and used to determine the perturbation, due to the spacecraft, in the phase difference between two interferometer antennas, suspended on either side of the spacecraft. This phase perturbation was found as a function of the angle-of-arrival of the signal from a far-field source. The spacecraft antennas were assumed to be circularly polarized with a cardioid pattern. It was found that the perturbation was as much 12.4 deg within the + or - 60 deg field-of-view. This suggests that phase calibration and correction of phase measurements are essential for precision position location using this technique.

  7. Predicting midsagittal pharynx shape from tongue position during vowel production.

    PubMed

    Whalen, D H; Kang, A M; Magen, H S; Fulbright, R K; Gore, J C

    1999-06-01

    The shape of the pharynx has a large effect on the acoustics of vowels, but direct measurement of this part of the vocal tract is difficult. The present study examines the efficacy of inferring midsagittal pharynx shape from the position of the tongue, which is much more amenable to measurement. Midsagittal magnetic resonance (MR) images were obtained for multiple repetitions of 11 static English vowels spoken by two subjects (one male and one female). From these, midsagittal widths were measured at approximately 3-mm intervals along the entire vocal tract. A regression analysis was then used to assess whether the pharyngeal widths could be predicted from the locations and width measurements for four positions on the tongue, namely, those likely to be the locations of a receiver coil for an electromagnetometer system. Predictability was quite high throughout the vocal tract (multiple r> 0.9), except for the extreme ends (i.e., larynx and lips) and small decreases for the male subject in the uvula region. The residuals from this analysis showed that the accuracy of predictions was generally quite high, with 89.2% of errors being less than 2 mm. The extremes of the vocal tract, where the resolution of the MRI was poorer, accounted for much of the error. For languages like English, which do not use advanced tongue root (ATR) distinctively, the midsagittal pharynx shape of static vowels can be predicted with high accuracy.

  8. Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, S.; Grace, M.; Williams, D.

    1999-01-01

    The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major

  9. Social anxiety and the accuracy of predicted affect.

    PubMed

    Martin, Shannon M; Quirk, Stuart W

    2015-01-01

    Social anxiety is theorised to arise from sustained over-activation of a mammalian evolved system for detecting and responding to social threat with corresponding diminished opportunities for attaining the pleasure of safe attachments. Emotional forecasting data from two holidays were used to test the hypothesis that greater social anxiety would be associated with decreased expectations of positive affect (PA) and greater anticipated negative affect (NA) on a holiday marked by group celebration (St. Patrick's Day) while being associated with greater predicted PA for daters on a romantic holiday (Valentine's Day). Participants completed symptom reports, made affective forecasts and provided multiple affect reports throughout each holiday. Higher levels of social anxiety were associated with greater anticipated PA for Valentine's Day daters, but lower experienced PA on the holiday; this was not found for trait anxiety and depression. Alternatively, trait anxiety, depression and social anxiety were associated with less predicted PA for St. Patrick's Day, greater anticipated NA and diminished experienced PA/greater NA during the holiday. Results are discussed in light of perceived hope for rewarding safe emotional contact for those daters in contrast to the greater possibility for social threat associated with group celebration typical of St. Patrick's Day.

  10. The Diagnostic Accuracy of Purple Line in Prediction of Labor Progress in Omolbanin Hospital, Iran

    PubMed Central

    Kordi, Masoumeh; Irani, Morvarid; Tara, Fatemeh; Esmaily, Habibollah

    2014-01-01

    Background: Currently, vaginal examination is the gold standard for assessment of labor progress. The World Health Organization emphasizes that the number of vaginal examinations should be limited where it is necessary. Objectives: Therefore, this study aimed to determine the diagnostic accuracy of purple line in the prediction of labor progress. Patients and Methods: In this cross-sectional study, 350 women with a single pregnancy in vertex presentation and gestational age of 38-42 weeks without any medical disorder, admitted to government hospitals of Mashhad, were selected using convenience sampling. Vaginal examination and observation of the line each hour in the active phase of labor were measured. Abnormal progress of labor was defined as cervical dilatation less than 1 centimeter/hour in the active phase for two consecutive hours and fetal head descend less than 1cm/h or duration of more than two hours for nulliparous and one hour for multiparous In the second stage of labor. Data was analyzed by SPSS version 16 using chi -square test. Results: The purple line appeared in 75.3% of women during the active phase of labor. Appearance of the purple line in the prediction of labor progress had 90.2% sensitivity, 45.3% specificity, 88.1% positive predictive value, 51.0% negative predictive value in the first stage of labor and had 87.6% sensitivity, 52.4% specificity, 96.5% positive predictive value, 22.0% negative predictive value in the second stage of labor and has 68.57% sensitivity, 42.66% specificity, 85.32% positive predictive value, and 43.85% negative predictive value for the total labor. Conclusions: According to the appearance of the purple line in most of the cases and its high sensitivity and specificity, we can use it as a non-invasive complementary method for clinical assessment of labor progress. PMID:25763210

  11. Lorentzian’ analysis of the accuracy of modern catalogues of stellar positions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Varaksina, N. Y.; Nefedyev, Y. A.; Churkin, K. O.; Zabbarova, R. R.; Demin, S. A.

    2015-12-01

    There is a new approach for the estimation of the position accuracy and proper motions of the stars in astrometric catalogues by comparison of the stars' positions in the researched and Hipparcos catalogues in different periods, but under a standard equinox. To verify this method was carried out the analysis of the star positions and proper motions UCAC2, PPM, ACRS, Tycho-2, ACT, TRC, FON and Tycho catalogues. As a result of this study was obtained that the accuracy of positions and proper motions of the stars in Tycho-2 and UCAC2 catalogues are approximately equal. The results of the comparison are represented graphically.

  12. Group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence.

    PubMed

    Koopmeiners, Joseph S; Feng, Ziding

    2016-04-15

    Group sequential testing procedures have been proposed as an approach to conserving resources in biomarker validation studies. Previously, we derived the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) curves, which summarize the predictive accuracy of a continuous marker, under case-control sampling. A limitation of this approach is that the prevalence cannot be estimated from a case-control study and must be assumed known. In this paper, we consider group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence. First, we develop asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical PPV and NPV curves when the prevalence must be estimated, rather than assumed known in a case-control study. We then discuss how our results can be combined with standard group sequential methods to develop group sequential testing procedures and bias-adjusted estimators for the PPV and NPV curve. The small sample properties of the proposed group sequential testing procedures and estimators are evaluated by simulation, and we illustrate our approach in the context of a study to validate a novel biomarker for prostate cancer.

  13. Accuracy Analysis of a Low-Cost Platform for Positioning and Navigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hofmann, S.; Kuntzsch, C.; Schulze, M. J.; Eggert, D.; Sester, M.

    2012-07-01

    This paper presents an accuracy analysis of a platform based on low-cost components for landmark-based navigation intended for research and teaching purposes. The proposed platform includes a LEGO MINDSTORMS NXT 2.0 kit, an Android-based Smartphone as well as a compact laser scanner Hokuyo URG-04LX. The robot is used in a small indoor environment, where GNSS is not available. Therefore, a landmark map was produced in advance, with the landmark positions provided to the robot. All steps of procedure to set up the platform are shown. The main focus of this paper is the reachable positioning accuracy, which was analyzed in this type of scenario depending on the accuracy of the reference landmarks and the directional and distance measuring accuracy of the laser scanner. Several experiments were carried out, demonstrating the practically achievable positioning accuracy. To evaluate the accuracy, ground truth was acquired using a total station. These results are compared to the theoretically achievable accuracies and the laser scanner's characteristics.

  14. Combined adjustment of multi-resolution satellite imagery for improved geo-positioning accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tang, Shengjun; Wu, Bo; Zhu, Qing

    2016-04-01

    Due to the widespread availability of satellite imagery nowadays, it is common for regions to be covered by satellite imagery from multiple sources with multiple resolutions. This paper presents a combined adjustment approach to integrate multi-source multi-resolution satellite imagery for improved geo-positioning accuracy without the use of ground control points (GCPs). Instead of using all the rational polynomial coefficients (RPCs) of images for processing, only those dominating the geo-positioning accuracy are used in the combined adjustment. They, together with tie points identified in the images, are used as observations in the adjustment model. Proper weights are determined for each observation, and ridge parameters are determined for better convergence of the adjustment solution. The outputs from the combined adjustment are the improved dominating RPCs of images, from which improved geo-positioning accuracy can be obtained. Experiments using ZY-3, SPOT-7 and Pleiades-1 imagery in Hong Kong, and Cartosat-1 and Worldview-1 imagery in Catalonia, Spain demonstrate that the proposed method is able to effectively improve the geo-positioning accuracy of satellite images. The combined adjustment approach offers an alternative method to improve geo-positioning accuracy of satellite images. The approach enables the integration of multi-source and multi-resolution satellite imagery for generating more precise and consistent 3D spatial information, which permits the comparative and synergistic use of multi-resolution satellite images from multiple sources.

  15. The Positioning Accuracy of BAUV Using Fusion of Data from USBL System and Movement Parameters Measurements.

    PubMed

    Krzysztof, Naus; Aleksander, Nowak

    2016-08-15

    The article presents a study of the accuracy of estimating the position coordinates of BAUV (Biomimetic Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) by the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method. The fusion of movement parameters measurements and position coordinates fixes was applied. The movement parameters measurements are carried out by on-board navigation devices, while the position coordinates fixes are done by the USBL (Ultra Short Base Line) system. The problem of underwater positioning and the conceptual design of the BAUV navigation system constructed at the Naval Academy (Polish Naval Academy-PNA) are presented in the first part of the paper. The second part consists of description of the evaluation results of positioning accuracy, the genesis of the problem of selecting method for underwater positioning, and the mathematical description of the method of estimating the position coordinates using the EKF method by the fusion of measurements with on-board navigation and measurements obtained with the USBL system. The main part contains a description of experimental research. It consists of a simulation program of navigational parameter measurements carried out during the BAUV passage along the test section. Next, the article covers the determination of position coordinates on the basis of simulated parameters, using EKF and DR methods and the USBL system, which are then subjected to a comparative analysis of accuracy. The final part contains systemic conclusions justifying the desirability of applying the proposed fusion method of navigation parameters for the BAUV positioning.

  16. The Positioning Accuracy of BAUV Using Fusion of Data from USBL System and Movement Parameters Measurements.

    PubMed

    Krzysztof, Naus; Aleksander, Nowak

    2016-01-01

    The article presents a study of the accuracy of estimating the position coordinates of BAUV (Biomimetic Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) by the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method. The fusion of movement parameters measurements and position coordinates fixes was applied. The movement parameters measurements are carried out by on-board navigation devices, while the position coordinates fixes are done by the USBL (Ultra Short Base Line) system. The problem of underwater positioning and the conceptual design of the BAUV navigation system constructed at the Naval Academy (Polish Naval Academy-PNA) are presented in the first part of the paper. The second part consists of description of the evaluation results of positioning accuracy, the genesis of the problem of selecting method for underwater positioning, and the mathematical description of the method of estimating the position coordinates using the EKF method by the fusion of measurements with on-board navigation and measurements obtained with the USBL system. The main part contains a description of experimental research. It consists of a simulation program of navigational parameter measurements carried out during the BAUV passage along the test section. Next, the article covers the determination of position coordinates on the basis of simulated parameters, using EKF and DR methods and the USBL system, which are then subjected to a comparative analysis of accuracy. The final part contains systemic conclusions justifying the desirability of applying the proposed fusion method of navigation parameters for the BAUV positioning. PMID:27537884

  17. The Positioning Accuracy of BAUV Using Fusion of Data from USBL System and Movement Parameters Measurements

    PubMed Central

    Krzysztof, Naus; Aleksander, Nowak

    2016-01-01

    The article presents a study of the accuracy of estimating the position coordinates of BAUV (Biomimetic Autonomous Underwater Vehicle) by the extended Kalman filter (EKF) method. The fusion of movement parameters measurements and position coordinates fixes was applied. The movement parameters measurements are carried out by on-board navigation devices, while the position coordinates fixes are done by the USBL (Ultra Short Base Line) system. The problem of underwater positioning and the conceptual design of the BAUV navigation system constructed at the Naval Academy (Polish Naval Academy—PNA) are presented in the first part of the paper. The second part consists of description of the evaluation results of positioning accuracy, the genesis of the problem of selecting method for underwater positioning, and the mathematical description of the method of estimating the position coordinates using the EKF method by the fusion of measurements with on-board navigation and measurements obtained with the USBL system. The main part contains a description of experimental research. It consists of a simulation program of navigational parameter measurements carried out during the BAUV passage along the test section. Next, the article covers the determination of position coordinates on the basis of simulated parameters, using EKF and DR methods and the USBL system, which are then subjected to a comparative analysis of accuracy. The final part contains systemic conclusions justifying the desirability of applying the proposed fusion method of navigation parameters for the BAUV positioning. PMID:27537884

  18. Automated novel high-accuracy miniaturized positioning system for use in analytical instrumentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Siomos, Konstadinos; Kaliakatsos, John; Apostolakis, Manolis; Lianakis, John; Duenow, Peter

    1996-01-01

    The development of three-dimensional automotive devices (micro-robots) for applications in analytical instrumentation, clinical chemical diagnostics and advanced laser optics, depends strongly on the ability of such a device: firstly to be positioned with high accuracy, reliability, and automatically, by means of user friendly interface techniques; secondly to be compact; and thirdly to operate under vacuum conditions, free of most of the problems connected with conventional micropositioners using stepping-motor gear techniques. The objective of this paper is to develop and construct a mechanically compact computer-based micropositioning system for coordinated motion in the X-Y-Z directions with: (1) a positioning accuracy of less than 1 micrometer, (the accuracy of the end-position of the system is controlled by a hard/software assembly using a self-constructed optical encoder); (2) a heat-free propulsion mechanism for vacuum operation; and (3) synchronized X-Y motion.

  19. Positional Accuracy of Airborne Integrated Global Positioning and Inertial Navigation Systems for Mapping in Glen Canyon, Arizona

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Sanchez, Richard D.; Hothem, Larry D.

    2002-01-01

    High-resolution airborne and satellite image sensor systems integrated with onboard data collection based on the Global Positioning System (GPS) and inertial navigation systems (INS) may offer a quick and cost-effective way to gather accurate topographic map information without ground control or aerial triangulation. The Applanix Corporation?s Position and Orientation Solutions for Direct Georeferencing of aerial photography was used in this project to examine the positional accuracy of integrated GPS/INS for terrain mapping in Glen Canyon, Arizona. The research application in this study yielded important information on the usefulness and limits of airborne integrated GPS/INS data-capture systems for mapping.

  20. Fundamentals, accuracy and input parameters of frost heave prediction models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schellekens, Fons Jozef

    In this thesis, the frost heave knowledge of physical geographers and soil physicists, a detailed description of the frost heave process, methods to determine soil parameters, and analysis of the spatial variability of these soil parameters are connected to the expertise of civil engineers and mathematicians in the (computer) modelling of the process. A description is given of observations of frost heave in laboratory experiments and in the field. Frost heave modelling is made accessible by a detailed description of the main principles of frost heave modelling in a language which can be understood by persons who do not have a thorough mathematical background. Two examples of practical one-dimensional frost heave prediction models are described: a model developed by Wang (1994) and a model developed by Nixon (1991). Advantages, limitations and some improvements of these models are described. It is suggested that conventional frost heave prediction using estimated extreme input parameters may be improved by using locally measured input parameters. The importance of accurate input parameters in frost heave prediction models is demonstrated in a case study using the frost heave models developed by Wang and Nixon. Methods to determine the input parameters are discussed, concluding with a suite of methods, some of which are new, to determine the input parameters of frost heave prediction models from very basic grain size parameters. The spatial variability of the required input parameters is analysed using data obtained along the Norman Wells-Zama oil pipeline at Norman Wells, NWT, located in the transition between discontinuous and continuous permafrost regions at the northern end of Canada's northernmost oil pipeline. A method based on spatial variability analysis of the input parameters in frost heave models is suggested to optimize the improvement that arises from adequate sampling, while minimizing the costs of obtaining field data. A series of frost heave

  1. An effective approach to improving low-cost GPS positioning accuracy in real-time navigation.

    PubMed

    Islam, Md Rashedul; Kim, Jong-Myon

    2014-01-01

    Positioning accuracy is a challenging issue for location-based applications using a low-cost global positioning system (GPS). This paper presents an effective approach to improving the positioning accuracy of a low-cost GPS receiver for real-time navigation. The proposed method precisely estimates position by combining vehicle movement direction, velocity averaging, and distance between waypoints using coordinate data (latitude, longitude, time, and velocity) of the GPS receiver. The previously estimated precious reference point, coordinate translation, and invalid data check also improve accuracy. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, we conducted an experiment using a GARMIN GPS 19xHVS receiver attached to a car and used Google Maps to plot the processed data. The proposed method achieved improvement of 4-10 meters in several experiments. In addition, we compared the proposed approach with two other state-of-the-art methods: recursive averaging and ARMA interpolation. The experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in terms of positioning accuracy.

  2. An Effective Approach to Improving Low-Cost GPS Positioning Accuracy in Real-Time Navigation

    PubMed Central

    Islam, Md. Rashedul; Kim, Jong-Myon

    2014-01-01

    Positioning accuracy is a challenging issue for location-based applications using a low-cost global positioning system (GPS). This paper presents an effective approach to improving the positioning accuracy of a low-cost GPS receiver for real-time navigation. The proposed method precisely estimates position by combining vehicle movement direction, velocity averaging, and distance between waypoints using coordinate data (latitude, longitude, time, and velocity) of the GPS receiver. The previously estimated precious reference point, coordinate translation, and invalid data check also improve accuracy. In order to evaluate the performance of the proposed method, we conducted an experiment using a GARMIN GPS 19xHVS receiver attached to a car and used Google Maps to plot the processed data. The proposed method achieved improvement of 4–10 meters in several experiments. In addition, we compared the proposed approach with two other state-of-the-art methods: recursive averaging and ARMA interpolation. The experimental results show that the proposed approach outperforms other state-of-the-art methods in terms of positioning accuracy. PMID:25136679

  3. Evaluation of approaches for estimating the accuracy of genomic prediction in plant breeding

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In genomic prediction, an important measure of accuracy is the correlation between the predicted and the true breeding values. Direct computation of this quantity for real datasets is not possible, because the true breeding value is unknown. Instead, the correlation between the predicted breeding values and the observed phenotypic values, called predictive ability, is often computed. In order to indirectly estimate predictive accuracy, this latter correlation is usually divided by an estimate of the square root of heritability. In this study we use simulation to evaluate estimates of predictive accuracy for seven methods, four (1 to 4) of which use an estimate of heritability to divide predictive ability computed by cross-validation. Between them the seven methods cover balanced and unbalanced datasets as well as correlated and uncorrelated genotypes. We propose one new indirect method (4) and two direct methods (5 and 6) for estimating predictive accuracy and compare their performances and those of four other existing approaches (three indirect (1 to 3) and one direct (7)) with simulated true predictive accuracy as the benchmark and with each other. Results The size of the estimated genetic variance and hence heritability exerted the strongest influence on the variation in the estimated predictive accuracy. Increasing the number of genotypes considerably increases the time required to compute predictive accuracy by all the seven methods, most notably for the five methods that require cross-validation (Methods 1, 2, 3, 4 and 6). A new method that we propose (Method 5) and an existing method (Method 7) used in animal breeding programs were the fastest and gave the least biased, most precise and stable estimates of predictive accuracy. Of the methods that use cross-validation Methods 4 and 6 were often the best. Conclusions The estimated genetic variance and the number of genotypes had the greatest influence on predictive accuracy. Methods 5 and 7 were the

  4. Heterogeneity of long-history migration predicts emotion recognition accuracy.

    PubMed

    Wood, Adrienne; Rychlowska, Magdalena; Niedenthal, Paula M

    2016-06-01

    Recent work (Rychlowska et al., 2015) demonstrated the power of a relatively new cultural dimension, historical heterogeneity, in predicting cultural differences in the endorsement of emotion expression norms. Historical heterogeneity describes the number of source countries that have contributed to a country's present-day population over the last 500 years. People in cultures originating from a large number of source countries may have historically benefited from greater and clearer emotional expressivity, because they lacked a common language and well-established social norms. We therefore hypothesized that in addition to endorsing more expressive display rules, individuals from heterogeneous cultures will also produce facial expressions that are easier to recognize by people from other cultures. By reanalyzing cross-cultural emotion recognition data from 92 papers and 82 cultures, we show that emotion expressions of people from heterogeneous cultures are more easily recognized by observers from other cultures than are the expressions produced in homogeneous cultures. Heterogeneity influences expression recognition rates alongside the individualism-collectivism of the perceivers' culture, as more individualistic cultures were more accurate in emotion judgments than collectivistic cultures. This work reveals the present-day behavioral consequences of long-term historical migration patterns and demonstrates the predictive power of historical heterogeneity. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27045686

  5. Online Medical Device Use Prediction: Assessment of Accuracy.

    PubMed

    Maktabi, Marianne; Neumuth, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    Cost-intensive units in the hospital such as the operating room require effective resource management to improve surgical workflow and patient care. To maximize efficiency, online management systems should accurately forecast the use of technical resources (medical instruments and devices). We compare several surgical activities like using the coagulator based on spectral analysis and application of a linear time variant system to obtain future technical resource usage. In our study we examine the influence of the duration of usage and total usage rate of the technical equipment to the prediction performance in several time intervals. A cross validation was conducted with sixty-two neck dissections to evaluate the prediction performance. The performance of a use-state-forecast does not change whether duration is considered or not, but decreases with lower total usage rates of the observed instruments. A minimum number of surgical workflow recordings (here: 62) and >5 minute time intervals for use-state forecast are required for applying our described method to surgical practice. The work presented here might support the reduction of resource conflicts when resources are shared among different operating rooms. PMID:27577445

  6. The effect of different Global Navigation Satellite System methods on positioning accuracy in elite alpine skiing.

    PubMed

    Gilgien, Matthias; Spörri, Jörg; Limpach, Philippe; Geiger, Alain; Müller, Erich

    2014-10-03

    In sport science, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are frequently applied to capture athletes' position, velocity and acceleration. Application of GNSS includes a large range of different GNSS technologies and methods. To date no study has comprehensively compared the different GNSS methods applied. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of differential and non-differential solutions, different satellite systems and different GNSS signal frequencies on position accuracy. Twelve alpine ski racers were equipped with high-end GNSS devices while performing runs on a giant slalom course. The skiers' GNSS antenna positions were calculated in three satellite signal obstruction conditions using five different GNSS methods. The GNSS antenna positions were compared to a video-based photogrammetric reference system over one turn and against the most valid GNSS method over the entire run. Furthermore, the time for acquisitioning differential GNSS solutions was assessed for four differential methods. The only GNSS method that consistently yielded sub-decimetre position accuracy in typical alpine skiing conditions was a differential method using American (GPS) and Russian (GLONASS) satellite systems and the satellite signal frequencies L1 and L2. Under conditions of minimal satellite signal obstruction, valid results were also achieved when either the satellite system GLONASS or the frequency L2 was dropped from the best configuration. All other methods failed to fulfill the accuracy requirements needed to detect relevant differences in the kinematics of alpine skiers, even in conditions favorable for GNSS measurements. The methods with good positioning accuracy had also the shortest times to compute differential solutions. This paper highlights the importance to choose appropriate methods to meet the accuracy requirements for sport applications.

  7. The Effect of Different Global Navigation Satellite System Methods on Positioning Accuracy in Elite Alpine Skiing

    PubMed Central

    Gilgien, Matthias; Spörri, Jörg; Limpach, Philippe; Geiger, Alain; Müller, Erich

    2014-01-01

    In sport science, Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) are frequently applied to capture athletes' position, velocity and acceleration. Application of GNSS includes a large range of different GNSS technologies and methods. To date no study has comprehensively compared the different GNSS methods applied. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to investigate the effect of differential and non-differential solutions, different satellite systems and different GNSS signal frequencies on position accuracy. Twelve alpine ski racers were equipped with high-end GNSS devices while performing runs on a giant slalom course. The skiers' GNSS antenna positions were calculated in three satellite signal obstruction conditions using five different GNSS methods. The GNSS antenna positions were compared to a video-based photogrammetric reference system over one turn and against the most valid GNSS method over the entire run. Furthermore, the time for acquisitioning differential GNSS solutions was assessed for four differential methods. The only GNSS method that consistently yielded sub-decimetre position accuracy in typical alpine skiing conditions was a differential method using American (GPS) and Russian (GLONASS) satellite systems and the satellite signal frequencies L1 and L2. Under conditions of minimal satellite signal obstruction, valid results were also achieved when either the satellite system GLONASS or the frequency L2 was dropped from the best configuration. All other methods failed to fulfill the accuracy requirements needed to detect relevant differences in the kinematics of alpine skiers, even in conditions favorable for GNSS measurements. The methods with good positioning accuracy had also the shortest times to compute differential solutions. This paper highlights the importance to choose appropriate methods to meet the accuracy requirements for sport applications. PMID:25285461

  8. Predictive Attitude Estimation Using Global Positioning System Signals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crassidis, John L.; Markley, F. Landis; Lightsey, E. Glenn; Ketchum, Eleanor

    1997-01-01

    In this paper, a new algorithm is developed for attitude estimation using Global Positioning System (GPS) signals. The new algorithm is based on a predictive filtering scheme designed for spacecraft without rate measuring devices. The major advantage of this new algorithm over traditional Kalman filter approaches is that the model error is not assumed to represented by an unbiased Gaussian noise process with known covariance, but instead is determined during the estimation process. This is achieved by simultaneously solving system optimality conditions and an output error constraint. This approach is well suited for GPS attitude estimation since some error sources that contribute to attitude inaccuracy, such as signal multipath, are known to be non-Gaussian processes. Also, the predictive filter scheme can use either GPS signals or vector observations or a combination of both for attitude estimation, so that performance characteristics can be maintained during periods of GPS attitude sensor outage. The performance of the new algorithm is tested using flight data from the REX-2 spacecraft. Results are shown using the predictive filter to estimate the attitude from both GPS signals and magnetometer measurements, and comparing that solution to a magnetometer-only based solution. Results using the new estimation algorithm indicate that GPS-based solutions are verified to within 2 degrees using the magnetometer cross-check for the REX-2 spacecraft. GPS attitude accuracy of better than 1 degree is expected per axis, but cannot be reliably proven due to inaccuracies in the magnetic field model.

  9. Horizontal Positional Accuracy of Google Earth's High-Resolution Imagery Archive

    PubMed Central

    Potere, David

    2008-01-01

    Google Earth now hosts high-resolution imagery that spans twenty percent of the Earth's landmass and more than a third of the human population. This contemporary high-resolution archive represents a significant, rapidly expanding, cost-free and largely unexploited resource for scientific inquiry. To increase the scientific utility of this archive, we address horizontal positional accuracy (georegistration) by comparing Google Earth with Landsat GeoCover scenes over a global sample of 436 control points located in 109 cities worldwide. Landsat GeoCover is an orthorectified product with known absolute positional accuracy of less than 50 meters root-mean-squared error (RMSE). Relative to Landsat GeoCover, the 436 Google Earth control points have a positional accuracy of 39.7 meters RMSE (error magnitudes range from 0.4 to 171.6 meters). The control points derived from satellite imagery have an accuracy of 22.8 meters RMSE, which is significantly more accurate than the 48 control-points based on aerial photography (41.3 meters RMSE; t-test p-value < 0.01). The accuracy of control points in more-developed countries is 24.1 meters RMSE, which is significantly more accurate than the control points in developing countries (44.4 meters RMSE; t-test p-value < 0.01). These findings indicate that Google Earth high-resolution imagery has a horizontal positional accuracy that is sufficient for assessing moderate-resolution remote sensing products across most of the world's peri-urban areas.

  10. Accuracy of velocities from repeated GPS surveys: relative positioning is concerned

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Duman, Huseyin; Ugur Sanli, D.

    2016-04-01

    Over more than a decade, researchers have been interested in studying the accuracy of GPS positioning solutions. Recently, reporting the accuracy of GPS velocities has been added to this. Researchers studying landslide motion, tectonic motion, uplift, sea level rise, and subsidence still report results from GPS experiments in which repeated GPS measurements from short sessions are used. This motivated some other researchers to study the accuracy of GPS deformation rates/velocities from various repeated GPS surveys. In one of the efforts, the velocity accuracy was derived from repeated GPS static surveys using short observation sessions and Precise Point Positioning mode of GPS software. Velocities from short GPS sessions were compared with the velocities from 24 h sessions. The accuracy of velocities was obtained using statistical hypothesis testing and quantifying the accuracy of least squares estimation models. The results reveal that 45-60 % of the horizontal and none of the vertical solutions comply with the results from 24 h solutions. We argue that this case in which the data was evaluated using PPP should also apply to the case in which the data belonging to long GPS base lengths is processed using fundamental relative point positioning. To test this idea we chose the two IGS stations ANKR and NICO and derive their velocities from the reference stations held fixed in the stable EURASIAN plate. The University of Bern's GNSS software BERNESE was used to produce relative positioning solutions, and the results are compared with those of GIPSY/OASIS II PPP results. First impressions indicate that it is worth designing a global experiment and test these ideas in detail.

  11. Portable device to assess dynamic accuracy of global positioning systems (GPS) receivers used in agricultural aircraft

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    A device was designed to test the dynamic accuracy of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers used in aerial vehicles. The system works by directing a sun-reflected light beam from the ground to the aircraft using mirrors. A photodetector is placed pointing downward from the aircraft and circuitry...

  12. Methods for evaluating the predictive accuracy of structural dynamic models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hasselman, T. K.; Chrostowski, Jon D.

    1990-01-01

    Uncertainty of frequency response using the fuzzy set method and on-orbit response prediction using laboratory test data to refine an analytical model are emphasized with respect to large space structures. Two aspects of the fuzzy set approach were investigated relative to its application to large structural dynamics problems: (1) minimizing the number of parameters involved in computing possible intervals; and (2) the treatment of extrema which may occur in the parameter space enclosed by all possible combinations of the important parameters of the model. Extensive printer graphics were added to the SSID code to help facilitate model verification, and an application of this code to the LaRC Ten Bay Truss is included in the appendix to illustrate this graphics capability.

  13. PreCisIon: PREdiction of CIS-regulatory elements improved by gene's positION.

    PubMed

    Elati, Mohamed; Nicolle, Rémy; Junier, Ivan; Fernández, David; Fekih, Rim; Font, Julio; Képès, François

    2013-02-01

    Conventional approaches to predict transcriptional regulatory interactions usually rely on the definition of a shared motif sequence on the target genes of a transcription factor (TF). These efforts have been frustrated by the limited availability and accuracy of TF binding site motifs, usually represented as position-specific scoring matrices, which may match large numbers of sites and produce an unreliable list of target genes. To improve the prediction of binding sites, we propose to additionally use the unrelated knowledge of the genome layout. Indeed, it has been shown that co-regulated genes tend to be either neighbors or periodically spaced along the whole chromosome. This study demonstrates that respective gene positioning carries significant information. This novel type of information is combined with traditional sequence information by a machine learning algorithm called PreCisIon. To optimize this combination, PreCisIon builds a strong gene target classifier by adaptively combining weak classifiers based on either local binding sequence or global gene position. This strategy generically paves the way to the optimized incorporation of any future advances in gene target prediction based on local sequence, genome layout or on novel criteria. With the current state of the art, PreCisIon consistently improves methods based on sequence information only. This is shown by implementing a cross-validation analysis of the 20 major TFs from two phylogenetically remote model organisms. For Bacillus subtilis and Escherichia coli, respectively, PreCisIon achieves on average an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 70 and 60%, a sensitivity of 80 and 70% and a specificity of 60 and 56%. The newly predicted gene targets are demonstrated to be functionally consistent with previously known targets, as assessed by analysis of Gene Ontology enrichment or of the relevant literature and databases.

  14. The Impact of Ionospheric Disturbances on High Accuracy Positioning in Brazil

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, L.; Park, J.; Susnik, A.; Aquino, M. H.; Dodson, A.

    2013-12-01

    High positioning accuracy is a key requirement to a number of applications with a high economic impact, such as precision agriculture, surveying, geodesy, land management, off-shore operations. Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) carrier phase measurement based techniques, such as Real Time Kinematic (RTK), Network-RTK (NRTK) and Precise Point Positioning (PPP), have played an important role in providing centimetre-level positioning accuracy, and become the core of the above applications. However these techniques are especially sensitive to ionospheric perturbations, in particular scintillation. Brazil sits in one of the most affected regions of the Earth and can be regarded as a test-bed for scenarios of the severe ionospheric condition. Over the Brazilian territory, the ionosphere behaves in a considerably unpredictable way and scintillation activity is very prominent, occurring especially after sunset hours. NRTK services may not be able to provide satisfactory accuracy, or even continuous positioning during strong scintillation periods. CALIBRA (Countering GNSS high Accuracy applications Limitations due to Ionospheric disturbances in BRAzil) started in late 2012 and is a project funded by the GSA (European GNSS Agency) and the European Commission under the Framework Program 7 to deliver improvements on carrier phase based high accuracy algorithms and their implementation in GNSS receivers, aiming to counter the adverse ionospheric effects over Brazil. As the first stage of this project, the ionospheric disturbances, which affect the applications of RTK, NRTK or PPP, are characterized. Typical problems include degraded positioning accuracy, difficulties in ambiguity fixing, NRTK network interpolation errors, long PPP convergence time etc. It will identify how GNSS observables and existing algorithms are degraded by ionosphere related phenomena, evaluating the impact on positioning techniques in terms of accuracy, integrity and availability. Through the

  15. Design of a contact probe with high positioning accuracy for plasmonic lithography.

    PubMed

    Jang, Jinhee; Kim, Yongwoo; Kim, Seok; Jung, Howon; Hahn, Jae Won

    2011-01-01

    Plasmonic lithography with a contact probe records nano-meter scale features and has high-throughput owing to its capability to scan in contact mode. The probe is commonly based on a micrometer-scale cantilever, which leads to the tip-positioning problem due to force-deflection that induces lateral tip displacement. We propose a geometrically modified probe to achieve high positioning accuracy. Contrary to a conventional cantilever-tip probe, we designed a "circular probe" with arc-shaped arms that hold the tip in the center. The mechanism is based on the "fixed-fixed beam" concept in material mechanics. To confirm its positioning accuracy, we used a finite element method (FEM) to calculate the tip displacement for a circular probe and compared the results with those using a conventional cantilever-tip probe. The probe was designed considering a silicon-based micro-fabrication process. The designed probe has a square outline boundary with a length of 50 µm, four arms, and a pyramidal tip with a height of 5 µm. The ratio of the lateral tip displacement to the vertical deflection was evaluated to indicate the accuracy of the probe. The probe has higher positioning accuracy by a factor of 10(3) and 10 in its approach mode and scan mode, respectively, compared with a cantilever-tip probe. We expect that the probe is suitable for the applications that require high positioning accuracy, such as nanolithography in contact mode and applications based on multiple-probe arrays. PMID:21445985

  16. Positioning Accuracy in Stereotactic Radiotherapy Using a Mask System With Added Vacuum Mouth Piece and Stereoscopic X-Ray Positioning

    SciTech Connect

    Santvoort, Jan van Wiggenraad, Ruud; Bos, Petra

    2008-09-01

    Purpose: For cranial patients receiving stereotactic radiotherapy, we use the Exactrac stereoscopic X-ray system to optimize patient positioning. Patients are immobilized with the BrainLAB Mask System (BrainLAB, Feldkirchen, Germany). We have developed an adapter to this system that accommodates a vacuum mouth piece (VMP). Measurements with the Exactrac system have been performed to study the positioning accuracy after corrections with this system and to evaluate the accuracy of the VMP vs. the standard available upper jaw support (UJS). Methods and Materials: Positioning results were collected for 20 patients with the UJS and 20 patients with the VMP, before treatment (1,122 fractions) and after treatment (400 fractions). For all 6 degrees of freedom the average, the random error and systematic error were calculated. Results: The average vector length before and after correction with the Exactrac system was 2.1 {+-} 1.2 mm and 0.7 {+-} 0.6 mm respectively for UJS and 1.7 {+-} 0.7 mm and 0.4 {+-} 0.4 mm for VMP. Interfraction positioning for translations was greatly improved after correction with the Exactrac system (p < 0.0005) and is better with VMP than with UJS (p = 0.005). Outliers were greatly reduced. Interfraction rotations were significantly smaller for VMP. Intrafraction errors for vertical and longitudinal translations and for rotations were smaller for the VMP. Conclusions: Positioning correction using the Exactrac X-ray system greatly improves accuracy. Adding the VMP results in even better patient fixation and smaller rotations, making it a useful addition to the Mask System. Combined, this is a convenient and accurate alternative to invasive fixation methods.

  17. Posterior Predictive Checks for Conditional Independence between Response Time and Accuracy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bolsinova, Maria; Tijmstra, Jesper

    2016-01-01

    Conditional independence (CI) between response time and response accuracy is a fundamental assumption of many joint models for time and accuracy used in educational measurement. In this study, posterior predictive checks (PPCs) are proposed for testing this assumption. These PPCs are based on three discrepancy measures reflecting different…

  18. High accuracy position response calibration method for a micro-channel plate ion detector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hong, R.; Leredde, A.; Bagdasarova, Y.; Fléchard, X.; García, A.; Müller, P.; Knecht, A.; Liénard, E.; Kossin, M.; Sternberg, M. G.; Swanson, H. E.; Zumwalt, D. W.

    2016-11-01

    We have developed a position response calibration method for a micro-channel plate (MCP) detector with a delay-line anode position readout scheme. Using an in situ calibration mask, an accuracy of 8 μm and a resolution of 85 μm (FWHM) have been achieved for MeV-scale α particles and ions with energies of ∼10 keV. At this level of accuracy, the difference between the MCP position responses to high-energy α particles and low-energy ions is significant. The improved performance of the MCP detector can find applications in many fields of AMO and nuclear physics. In our case, it helps reducing systematic uncertainties in a high-precision nuclear β-decay experiment.

  19. Current issues on 3D volumetric positioning accuracy: measurement, compensation, and definition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, C.

    2008-10-01

    Traditionally, manufacturers have ensured part accuracy by linear calibration of each machine tool axis. The conventional definition of the 3-D volumetric positioning error is the root mean square of the three-axis displacement error. 20 years ago, the dominate error is the lead screw pitch error of 3 axes. This definition is adequate. However, now the machine accuracy has been improved with better lead screw, linear encoder and compensation, the dominate errors become the squareness errors and straightness errors. Hence the above definition is inadequate. During the past years, the industry has seen demand emerge for the "volumetric accuracy" specification on machine tools. One hurdle remains: a standard definition so that everyone measures volumetric accuracy with the same yardstick. The issue has been discussed in many Standards Committees, machine tool builders and the metrology community. Reported here are, a new 3D volumetric positioning error measurement and compensation technique, proposed definitions or measures of 3 D volumetric positioning errors of a CNC machine tool, and its verification.

  20. The accuracy and timeliness of neuraminidase inhibitor dispensing data for predicting laboratory-confirmed influenza.

    PubMed

    Papenburg, J; Charland, K M; DE Serres, G; Buckeridge, D L

    2016-06-01

    Neuraminidase inhibitor (NI) dispensing has emerged as a possible automated data source for influenza surveillance. We aimed to evaluate its timeliness, correlation, and predictive accuracy in relation to influenza activity in Quebec, Canada, 2010-2013. Our secondary objective was to use the same metrics to compare NI dispensing to visits for influenza-like illness (ILI) in emergency departments (EDs). Provincial weekly counts of positive influenza laboratory tests were used as a reference measure for the level of influenza circulation. We applied ARIMA models to account for serial correlation. We computed cross-correlations to measure the strengths of association and lead-lag relationships between NI dispensing, ILI ED visits, and our reference indicator. Finally, using an ARIMA model, we evaluated the ability of NI dispensing and ILI ED visits to predict laboratory-confirmed influenza. NI dispensing was significantly correlated (R = 0·68) with influenza activity with no lag. The maximal correlation of ILI ED visits was not as strong (R = 0·50). Both NI dispensing and ILI ED visits were significant predictors of laboratory-confirmed influenza in a multivariable model; predictive potential was greatest when NI counts were lagged to precede laboratory surveillance by 2 weeks. We conclude that NI dispensing data provides timely and valuable information for influenza surveillance. PMID:26611607

  1. Accuracy of Predicted Genomic Breeding Values in Purebred and Crossbred Pigs

    PubMed Central

    Hidalgo, André M.; Bastiaansen, John W. M.; Lopes, Marcos S.; Harlizius, Barbara; Groenen, Martien A. M.; de Koning, Dirk-Jan

    2015-01-01

    Genomic selection has been widely implemented in dairy cattle breeding when the aim is to improve performance of purebred animals. In pigs, however, the final product is a crossbred animal. This may affect the efficiency of methods that are currently implemented for dairy cattle. Therefore, the objective of this study was to determine the accuracy of predicted breeding values in crossbred pigs using purebred genomic and phenotypic data. A second objective was to compare the predictive ability of SNPs when training is done in either single or multiple populations for four traits: age at first insemination (AFI); total number of piglets born (TNB); litter birth weight (LBW); and litter variation (LVR). We performed marker-based and pedigree-based predictions. Within-population predictions for the four traits ranged from 0.21 to 0.72. Multi-population prediction yielded accuracies ranging from 0.18 to 0.67. Predictions across purebred populations as well as predicting genetic merit of crossbreds from their purebred parental lines for AFI performed poorly (not significantly different from zero). In contrast, accuracies of across-population predictions and accuracies of purebred to crossbred predictions for LBW and LVR ranged from 0.08 to 0.31 and 0.11 to 0.31, respectively. Accuracy for TNB was zero for across-population prediction, whereas for purebred to crossbred prediction it ranged from 0.08 to 0.22. In general, marker-based outperformed pedigree-based prediction across populations and traits. However, in some cases pedigree-based prediction performed similarly or outperformed marker-based prediction. There was predictive ability when purebred populations were used to predict crossbred genetic merit using an additive model in the populations studied. AFI was the only exception, indicating that predictive ability depends largely on the genetic correlation between PB and CB performance, which was 0.31 for AFI. Multi-population prediction was no better than within

  2. Enhanced Positioning Algorithm of ARPS for Improving Accuracy and Expanding Service Coverage

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Kyuman; Baek, Hoki; Lim, Jaesung

    2016-01-01

    The airborne relay-based positioning system (ARPS), which employs the relaying of navigation signals, was proposed as an alternative positioning system. However, the ARPS has limitations, such as relatively large vertical error and service restrictions, because firstly, the user position is estimated based on airborne relays that are located in one direction, and secondly, the positioning is processed using only relayed navigation signals. In this paper, we propose an enhanced positioning algorithm to improve the performance of the ARPS. The main idea of the enhanced algorithm is the adaptable use of either virtual or direct measurements of reference stations in the calculation process based on the structural features of the ARPS. Unlike the existing two-step algorithm for airborne relay and user positioning, the enhanced algorithm is divided into two cases based on whether the required number of navigation signals for user positioning is met. In the first case, where the number of signals is greater than four, the user first estimates the positions of the airborne relays and its own initial position. Then, the user position is re-estimated by integrating a virtual measurement of a reference station that is calculated using the initial estimated user position and known reference positions. To prevent performance degradation, the re-estimation is performed after determining its requirement through comparing the expected position errors. If the navigation signals are insufficient, such as when the user is outside of airborne relay coverage, the user position is estimated by additionally using direct signal measurements of the reference stations in place of absent relayed signals. The simulation results demonstrate that a higher accuracy level can be achieved because the user position is estimated based on the measurements of airborne relays and a ground station. Furthermore, the service coverage is expanded by using direct measurements of reference stations for user

  3. Enhanced Positioning Algorithm of ARPS for Improving Accuracy and Expanding Service Coverage.

    PubMed

    Lee, Kyuman; Baek, Hoki; Lim, Jaesung

    2016-01-01

    The airborne relay-based positioning system (ARPS), which employs the relaying of navigation signals, was proposed as an alternative positioning system. However, the ARPS has limitations, such as relatively large vertical error and service restrictions, because firstly, the user position is estimated based on airborne relays that are located in one direction, and secondly, the positioning is processed using only relayed navigation signals. In this paper, we propose an enhanced positioning algorithm to improve the performance of the ARPS. The main idea of the enhanced algorithm is the adaptable use of either virtual or direct measurements of reference stations in the calculation process based on the structural features of the ARPS. Unlike the existing two-step algorithm for airborne relay and user positioning, the enhanced algorithm is divided into two cases based on whether the required number of navigation signals for user positioning is met. In the first case, where the number of signals is greater than four, the user first estimates the positions of the airborne relays and its own initial position. Then, the user position is re-estimated by integrating a virtual measurement of a reference station that is calculated using the initial estimated user position and known reference positions. To prevent performance degradation, the re-estimation is performed after determining its requirement through comparing the expected position errors. If the navigation signals are insufficient, such as when the user is outside of airborne relay coverage, the user position is estimated by additionally using direct signal measurements of the reference stations in place of absent relayed signals. The simulation results demonstrate that a higher accuracy level can be achieved because the user position is estimated based on the measurements of airborne relays and a ground station. Furthermore, the service coverage is expanded by using direct measurements of reference stations for user

  4. Diagnostic Accuracy of Procalcitonin for Predicting Blood Culture Results in Patients With Suspected Bloodstream Infection

    PubMed Central

    Oussalah, Abderrahim; Ferrand, Janina; Filhine-Tresarrieu, Pierre; Aissa, Nejla; Aimone-Gastin, Isabelle; Namour, Fares; Garcia, Matthieu; Lozniewski, Alain; Guéant, Jean-Louis

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Previous studies have suggested that procalcitonin is a reliable marker for predicting bacteremia. However, these studies have had relatively small sample sizes or focused on a single clinical entity. The primary endpoint of this study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin for predicting or excluding clinically relevant pathogen categories in patients with suspected bloodstream infections. The secondary endpoint was to look for organisms significantly associated with internationally validated procalcitonin intervals. We performed a cross-sectional study that included 35,343 consecutive patients who underwent concomitant procalcitonin assays and blood cultures for suspected bloodstream infections. Biochemical and microbiological data were systematically collected in an electronic database and extracted for purposes of this study. Depending on blood culture results, patients were classified into 1 of the 5 following groups: negative blood culture, Gram-positive bacteremia, Gram-negative bacteremia, fungi, and potential contaminants found in blood cultures (PCBCs). The highest procalcitonin concentration was observed in patients with blood cultures growing Gram-negative bacteria (median 2.2 ng/mL [IQR 0.6–12.2]), and the lowest procalcitonin concentration was observed in patients with negative blood cultures (median 0.3 ng/mL [IQR 0.1–1.1]). With optimal thresholds ranging from ≤0.4 to ≤0.75 ng/mL, procalcitonin had a high diagnostic accuracy for excluding all pathogen categories with the following negative predictive values: Gram-negative bacteria (98.9%) (including enterobacteria [99.2%], nonfermenting Gram-negative bacilli [99.7%], and anaerobic bacteria [99.9%]), Gram-positive bacteria (98.4%), and fungi (99.6%). A procalcitonin concentration ≥10 ng/mL was associated with a high risk of Gram-negative (odds ratio 5.98; 95% CI, 5.20–6.88) or Gram-positive (odds ratio 3.64; 95% CI, 3.11–4.26) bacteremia but

  5. The prediction of the hepatic clearance of tanshinone IIA in rat liver subcellular fractions: accuracy improvement.

    PubMed

    Li, Peng; Wang, Guang-Ji; Li, Jing; Zhang, Qian; Liu, Xin; Khlentzos, Alexander; Roberts, Michael S

    2008-01-01

    The in vivo hepatic clearance of tanshinone IIA in the rat was predicted using microsome, cytosol and S9 fractions combined with two different cofactor systems, NADPH-regenerating and UDPGA system. Two different models, the well stirred model and the parallel-tube model, were used in predicting the in vivo clearance in the rat. The in vivo clearance of tanshinone IIA was acquired from a pharmacokinetic study in rat. The results show that the prediction accuracy acquired from the microsome combined with the NADPH is poor. The in vivo clearance in the rat is almost 32 fold higher than the clearance predicted in microsome. The predicted clearance of the S9 model combined with both NADPH and UDPGA system is about 4 fold lower than the in vivo clearance. The predicted clearance of the cytosol combined with the two cofactor system is about 7 fold lower than the in vivo clearance. Although the prediction accuracy acquired from the S9 and cytosol system is not perfect, the prediction accuracy is improved in these two incubation systems. Using S9 combined with both the phase I and phase II metabolism can improve the prediction accuracy. PMID:18220570

  6. A computational approach for prediction of donor splice sites with improved accuracy.

    PubMed

    Meher, Prabina Kumar; Sahu, Tanmaya Kumar; Rao, A R; Wahi, S D

    2016-09-01

    Identification of splice sites is important due to their key role in predicting the exon-intron structure of protein coding genes. Though several approaches have been developed for the prediction of splice sites, further improvement in the prediction accuracy will help predict gene structure more accurately. This paper presents a computational approach for prediction of donor splice sites with higher accuracy. In this approach, true and false splice sites were first encoded into numeric vectors and then used as input in artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF) for prediction. ANN and SVM were found to perform equally and better than RF, while tested on HS3D and NN269 datasets. Further, the performance of ANN, SVM and RF were analyzed by using an independent test set of 50 genes and found that the prediction accuracy of ANN was higher than that of SVM and RF. All the predictors achieved higher accuracy while compared with the existing methods like NNsplice, MEM, MDD, WMM, MM1, FSPLICE, GeneID and ASSP, using the independent test set. We have also developed an online prediction server (PreDOSS) available at http://cabgrid.res.in:8080/predoss, for prediction of donor splice sites using the proposed approach. PMID:27302911

  7. Improving protein–protein interactions prediction accuracy using protein evolutionary information and relevance vector machine model

    PubMed Central

    An, Ji‐Yong; Meng, Fan‐Rong; Chen, Xing; Yan, Gui‐Ying; Hu, Ji‐Pu

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Predicting protein–protein interactions (PPIs) is a challenging task and essential to construct the protein interaction networks, which is important for facilitating our understanding of the mechanisms of biological systems. Although a number of high‐throughput technologies have been proposed to predict PPIs, there are unavoidable shortcomings, including high cost, time intensity, and inherently high false positive rates. For these reasons, many computational methods have been proposed for predicting PPIs. However, the problem is still far from being solved. In this article, we propose a novel computational method called RVM‐BiGP that combines the relevance vector machine (RVM) model and Bi‐gram Probabilities (BiGP) for PPIs detection from protein sequences. The major improvement includes (1) Protein sequences are represented using the Bi‐gram probabilities (BiGP) feature representation on a Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM), in which the protein evolutionary information is contained; (2) For reducing the influence of noise, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of BiGP vector; (3) The powerful and robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) algorithm is used for classification. Five‐fold cross‐validation experiments executed on yeast and Helicobacter pylori datasets, which achieved very high accuracies of 94.57 and 90.57%, respectively. Experimental results are significantly better than previous methods. To further evaluate the proposed method, we compare it with the state‐of‐the‐art support vector machine (SVM) classifier on the yeast dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our RVM‐BiGP method is significantly better than the SVM‐based method. In addition, we achieved 97.15% accuracy on imbalance yeast dataset, which is higher than that of balance yeast dataset. The promising experimental results show the efficiency and robust of the proposed method, which can be an automatic

  8. Improving protein-protein interactions prediction accuracy using protein evolutionary information and relevance vector machine model.

    PubMed

    An, Ji-Yong; Meng, Fan-Rong; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Yan, Gui-Ying; Hu, Ji-Pu

    2016-10-01

    Predicting protein-protein interactions (PPIs) is a challenging task and essential to construct the protein interaction networks, which is important for facilitating our understanding of the mechanisms of biological systems. Although a number of high-throughput technologies have been proposed to predict PPIs, there are unavoidable shortcomings, including high cost, time intensity, and inherently high false positive rates. For these reasons, many computational methods have been proposed for predicting PPIs. However, the problem is still far from being solved. In this article, we propose a novel computational method called RVM-BiGP that combines the relevance vector machine (RVM) model and Bi-gram Probabilities (BiGP) for PPIs detection from protein sequences. The major improvement includes (1) Protein sequences are represented using the Bi-gram probabilities (BiGP) feature representation on a Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM), in which the protein evolutionary information is contained; (2) For reducing the influence of noise, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of BiGP vector; (3) The powerful and robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) algorithm is used for classification. Five-fold cross-validation experiments executed on yeast and Helicobacter pylori datasets, which achieved very high accuracies of 94.57 and 90.57%, respectively. Experimental results are significantly better than previous methods. To further evaluate the proposed method, we compare it with the state-of-the-art support vector machine (SVM) classifier on the yeast dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our RVM-BiGP method is significantly better than the SVM-based method. In addition, we achieved 97.15% accuracy on imbalance yeast dataset, which is higher than that of balance yeast dataset. The promising experimental results show the efficiency and robust of the proposed method, which can be an automatic decision support tool for future

  9. Improving protein-protein interactions prediction accuracy using protein evolutionary information and relevance vector machine model.

    PubMed

    An, Ji-Yong; Meng, Fan-Rong; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Yan, Gui-Ying; Hu, Ji-Pu

    2016-10-01

    Predicting protein-protein interactions (PPIs) is a challenging task and essential to construct the protein interaction networks, which is important for facilitating our understanding of the mechanisms of biological systems. Although a number of high-throughput technologies have been proposed to predict PPIs, there are unavoidable shortcomings, including high cost, time intensity, and inherently high false positive rates. For these reasons, many computational methods have been proposed for predicting PPIs. However, the problem is still far from being solved. In this article, we propose a novel computational method called RVM-BiGP that combines the relevance vector machine (RVM) model and Bi-gram Probabilities (BiGP) for PPIs detection from protein sequences. The major improvement includes (1) Protein sequences are represented using the Bi-gram probabilities (BiGP) feature representation on a Position Specific Scoring Matrix (PSSM), in which the protein evolutionary information is contained; (2) For reducing the influence of noise, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) method is used to reduce the dimension of BiGP vector; (3) The powerful and robust Relevance Vector Machine (RVM) algorithm is used for classification. Five-fold cross-validation experiments executed on yeast and Helicobacter pylori datasets, which achieved very high accuracies of 94.57 and 90.57%, respectively. Experimental results are significantly better than previous methods. To further evaluate the proposed method, we compare it with the state-of-the-art support vector machine (SVM) classifier on the yeast dataset. The experimental results demonstrate that our RVM-BiGP method is significantly better than the SVM-based method. In addition, we achieved 97.15% accuracy on imbalance yeast dataset, which is higher than that of balance yeast dataset. The promising experimental results show the efficiency and robust of the proposed method, which can be an automatic decision support tool for future

  10. Atomic-Accuracy Prediction of Protein Loop Structures through an RNA-Inspired Ansatz

    PubMed Central

    Das, Rhiju

    2013-01-01

    Consistently predicting biopolymer structure at atomic resolution from sequence alone remains a difficult problem, even for small sub-segments of large proteins. Such loop prediction challenges, which arise frequently in comparative modeling and protein design, can become intractable as loop lengths exceed 10 residues and if surrounding side-chain conformations are erased. Current approaches, such as the protein local optimization protocol or kinematic inversion closure (KIC) Monte Carlo, involve stages that coarse-grain proteins, simplifying modeling but precluding a systematic search of all-atom configurations. This article introduces an alternative modeling strategy based on a ‘stepwise ansatz’, recently developed for RNA modeling, which posits that any realistic all-atom molecular conformation can be built up by residue-by-residue stepwise enumeration. When harnessed to a dynamic-programming-like recursion in the Rosetta framework, the resulting stepwise assembly (SWA) protocol enables enumerative sampling of a 12 residue loop at a significant but achievable cost of thousands of CPU-hours. In a previously established benchmark, SWA recovers crystallographic conformations with sub-Angstrom accuracy for 19 of 20 loops, compared to 14 of 20 by KIC modeling with a comparable expenditure of computational power. Furthermore, SWA gives high accuracy results on an additional set of 15 loops highlighted in the biological literature for their irregularity or unusual length. Successes include cis-Pro touch turns, loops that pass through tunnels of other side-chains, and loops of lengths up to 24 residues. Remaining problem cases are traced to inaccuracies in the Rosetta all-atom energy function. In five additional blind tests, SWA achieves sub-Angstrom accuracy models, including the first such success in a protein/RNA binding interface, the YbxF/kink-turn interaction in the fourth ‘RNA-puzzle’ competition. These results establish all-atom enumeration as an

  11. A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of multi-leaf collimator positional errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Joel N. K.; Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; In Park, Jong; Choi, Yunseok; Ye, Sung-Joon

    2016-03-01

    Discrepancies between planned and delivered movements of multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) are an important source of errors in dose distributions during radiotherapy. In this work we used machine learning techniques to train models to predict these discrepancies, assessed the accuracy of the model predictions, and examined the impact these errors have on quality assurance (QA) procedures and dosimetry. Predictive leaf motion parameters for the models were calculated from the plan files, such as leaf position and velocity, whether the leaf was moving towards or away from the isocenter of the MLC, and many others. Differences in positions between synchronized DICOM-RT planning files and DynaLog files reported during QA delivery were used as a target response for training of the models. The final model is capable of predicting MLC positions during delivery to a high degree of accuracy. For moving MLC leaves, predicted positions were shown to be significantly closer to delivered positions than were planned positions. By incorporating predicted positions into dose calculations in the TPS, increases were shown in gamma passing rates against measured dose distributions recorded during QA delivery. For instance, head and neck plans with 1%/2 mm gamma criteria had an average increase in passing rate of 4.17% (SD  =  1.54%). This indicates that the inclusion of predictions during dose calculation leads to a more realistic representation of plan delivery. To assess impact on the patient, dose volumetric histograms (DVH) using delivered positions were calculated for comparison with planned and predicted DVHs. In all cases, predicted dose volumetric parameters were in closer agreement to the delivered parameters than were the planned parameters, particularly for organs at risk on the periphery of the treatment area. By incorporating the predicted positions into the TPS, the treatment planner is given a more realistic view of the dose distribution as it will truly be

  12. Effects of attachment position and shoulder orientation during calibration on the accuracy of the acromial tracker.

    PubMed

    Shaheen, A F; Alexander, C M; Bull, A M J

    2011-04-29

    The acromial tracker is used to measure scapular rotations during dynamic movements. The method has low accuracy in high elevations and is sensitive to its attachment location on the acromion. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of the attachment position and shoulder orientation during calibration on the tracker accuracy. The tracker was attached to one of three positions: near the anterior edge of the acromion process, just above the acromial angle and the meeting point between the acromion and the scapular spine. The scapula locator was used to track the scapula during bilateral abduction simultaneously. The locator was used to calibrate the tracker at: no abduction, 30°, 60°, 90° and 120° humerothoracic abduction. ANOVA tests compared RMS errors for different attachment positions and calibration angles. The results showed that attaching the device at the meeting point between the acromion and the scapular spine gave the smallest errors and it was best to calibrate the device at 60° for elevations ≤90°, at 120° for elevations >90° and at 90°or 120° for the full range of abduction. The accuracy of the tracker is significantly improved if attached appropriately and calibrated for the range of movement being measured.

  13. Factors Associated with the Accuracy of Physicians’ Predictions of Patient Adherence

    PubMed Central

    Phillips, L. Alison; Leventhal, Elaine A.; Leventhal, Howard

    2011-01-01

    Objective Physicians are inaccurate in predicting non-adherence in patients, a problem that interferes with physicians’: 1) appropriate prescribing decisions and 2) effective prevention/intervention of non-adherence. The purpose of the current study is to investigate potential reasons for the poor accuracy of physicians’ adherence-predictions and conditions under which their predictions may be more accurate. Methods After the medical encounter, predictions of patient-adherence and other ratings from primary-care physicians (n=24) regarding patient-factors that may have influenced their predictions were collected. Patients (n=288) rated their agreement regarding the prescribed treatment after the encounter and reported adherence one month later. Results Several factors were related to physicians’ adherence-predictions, including physicians’ perceptions of patient-agreement regarding treatment. However, some factors were not related to adherence and agreement-perceptions were inaccurate overall, potentially contributing to the poor accuracy of adherence-predictions. The degree to which physicians discussed treatment-specifics with the patient moderated agreement-perception accuracy but not adherence-prediction accuracy. Conclusions Training providers to discuss certain treatment-specifics with patients may improve their ability to perceive patient-agreement regarding treatment and may directly improve patient-adherence. Practice Implications Discussing treatment-specifics with patients may directly improve adherence, but providers should not rely on these discussions to give them accurate estimates of the patients’ likely adherence. PMID:21501943

  14. Developmental stress predicts social network position.

    PubMed

    Boogert, Neeltje J; Farine, Damien R; Spencer, Karen A

    2014-10-01

    The quantity and quality of social relationships, as captured by social network analysis, can have major fitness consequences. Various studies have shown that individual differences in social behaviour can be due to variation in exposure to developmental stress. However, whether these developmental differences translate to consistent differences in social network position is not known. We experimentally increased levels of the avian stress hormone corticosterone (CORT) in nestling zebra finches in a fully balanced design. Upon reaching nutritional independence, we released chicks and their families into two free-flying rooms, where we measured daily social networks over five weeks using passive integrated transponder tags. Developmental stress had a significant effect on social behaviour: despite having similar foraging patterns, CORT chicks had weaker associations to their parents than control chicks. Instead, CORT chicks foraged with a greater number of flock mates and were less choosy with whom they foraged, resulting in more central network positions. These findings highlight the importance of taking developmental history into account to understand the drivers of social organization in gregarious species. PMID:25354917

  15. A Study on the Effect of Input Parameters on Springback Prediction Accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Y. S.; Yang, W. H.; Choi, K. Y.; Kim, B. H.

    2011-08-01

    In this study, it is considered the input parameters in springback simulation affect factors to use member part by Taguchi's method into six-sigma tool on the basis of experiment for acquiring much more accurate springback prediction in Pamstamp2G. The best combination of input parameters for higher springback prediction accuracy is determined to the fender part as the one is applied for member part. The cracks and wrinkles in drawing and flanging operation must be removed for predicting the higher springback in accuracy. The compensation of springback on the basis of simulation is carried out. It is concluded that 95% of accuracy for springback prediction in dimension is secured as comparing with tryout panel.

  16. Accuracy of WAAS-enabled GPS for the determination of position and speed over ground.

    PubMed

    Witte, T H; Wilson, A M

    2005-08-01

    The Global Positioning System (GPS) offers many advantages over conventional methods for the determination of subject speed during biomechanical studies. Recent advances in GPS technology, in particular the implementation of the Wide-Angle Augmentation System and European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (WAAS/EGNOS), mean that small, highly portable units are available offering the potential of superior accuracy in the determination of both position and speed. This study set out to examine the accuracy of a WAAS-enabled GPS unit for the determination of position and speed. Comparison with the new and published data showed significant enhancements in both position and speed accuracy over a non-WAAS system. Position data collected during straight line cycling showed significantly lower sample-to-sample variation (mean absolute deviation from straight line 0.11 vs. 0.78 m) and greater repeatability from trial to trial (mean absolute deviation from actual path 0.37 vs. 4.8 m) for the WAAS-enabled unit compared to the non-WAAS unit. The speed determined by the WAAS-enabled GPS receiver during cycling in a straight line was within 0.2 ms(-1) of the actual speed measured for 57% of the values with 82% lying within 0.4 ms(-1), however, the data tended towards underestimation of speed during circle cycling, with 65% of values within 0.2 ms(-1) and 87% within 0.4 ms(-1) of the actual value. Local dGPS and dual frequency techniques are more accurate still, however, traditional differential GPS (dGPS), employing FM radio transmission of correction data to a separate receiver, now offers no advantage over WAAS and appears redundant.

  17. Accuracy in GPS/Acoustic positioning on a moored buoy moving around far from the optimal position

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imano, M.; Kido, M.; Ohta, Y.; Takahashi, N.; Fukuda, T.; Ochi, H.; Hino, R.

    2015-12-01

    For detecting the seafloor crustal deformation and Tsunami associated with large earthquakes in real-time, it is necessary to monitor them just above the possible source region. For this purpose, we have been dedicated in developing a real-time continuous observation system using a multi-purpose moored buoy. Sea-trials of the system have been carried out near the Nanakai trough in 2013 and 2014 (Takahashi et al., 2014). We especially focused on the GPS/Acoustic measurement (GPS/A) in the system for horizontal crustal movement. The GPS/A on a moored buoy has a critical drawback compared to the traditional ones, in which the data can be stacked over ranging points fixed at an optimal position. Accuracy in positioning with a single ranging from an arbitrary point is the subject to be improved in this study. Here, we report the positioning results in the buoy system using data in the 2014 sea-trial and demonstrate the improvement of the result. We also address the potential resolving power in the positioning using synthetic tests. The target GPS/A site consists of six seafloor transponders (PXPs) forming a small inner- and a large outer-triangles. The bottom of the moored cable is anchored nearly the center of the triangles. In the sea-trial, 11 times successive ranging was scheduled once a week, and we plotted positioning results from different buoy position. We confirmed that scatter in positioning using six PXPs simultaneously is ten times smaller than that using individual triangle separately. Next, we modified the definition of the PXP array geometry using data obtained in a campaign observation. Definition of an array geometry is insensitive as far as ranging is made in the same position, however, severely affects the positioning when ranging is made from various positions like the moored buoy. The modified PXP array is slightly smaller and 2m deeper than the original one. We found that the scatter of positioning results in the sea-trial is reduced from 4m to 1

  18. Accuracy of prediction of canine litter size and gestational age with ultrasound.

    PubMed

    Lenard, Z M; Hopper, B J; Lester, N V; Richardson, J L; Robertson, I D

    2007-06-01

    Different sonographic criteria have been developed to estimate canine fetal age, including fetal mensuration and assessment of fetal organ development. This retrospective study assessed the accuracy of gestational age and litter size predictions in 76 bitches using one of two techniques. The first method used the differential features of fetal organ development that occur in early and mid pregnancy, based on published tables for beagles. The second method used biparietal head and trunk diameters to predict gestational age based on tables published for late gestational Labrador Retrievers. The accuracy of the two methods was compared and the effect of maternal body weight and litter size evaluated. Litter size and maternal body weight did not affect the accuracy of gestational age prediction. Using a combination of both methods, the overall accuracy of predicting parturition date within 65 +/- 1 day and +/- 2 days was 70.8% and 86.1%, respectively. The correct litter size was predicted in 65% of cases, and in 89.5% of cases for +/- 1 pup. Pearson's correlation between actual litter size and predicted litter size was high (R = 0.957, P < 0.001). The organ development method of predicting gestational age was more accurate than late gestational fetal mensuration (P = 0.019). The optimum time for sonographic estimation of fetal age and litter size is early and mid pregnancy.

  19. Accuracy improvement techniques in Precise Point Positioning method using multiple GNSS constellations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vasileios Psychas, Dimitrios; Delikaraoglou, Demitris

    2016-04-01

    The future Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), including modernized GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou, offer three or more signal carriers for civilian use and much more redundant observables. The additional frequencies can significantly improve the capabilities of the traditional geodetic techniques based on GPS signals at two frequencies, especially with regard to the availability, accuracy, interoperability and integrity of high-precision GNSS applications. Furthermore, highly redundant measurements can allow for robust simultaneous estimation of static or mobile user states including more parameters such as real-time tropospheric biases and more reliable ambiguity resolution estimates. This paper presents an investigation and analysis of accuracy improvement techniques in the Precise Point Positioning (PPP) method using signals from the fully operational (GPS and GLONASS), as well as the emerging (Galileo and BeiDou) GNSS systems. The main aim was to determine the improvement in both the positioning accuracy achieved and the time convergence it takes to achieve geodetic-level (10 cm or less) accuracy. To this end, freely available observation data from the recent Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) of the International GNSS Service, as well as the open source program RTKLIB were used. Following a brief background of the PPP technique and the scope of MGEX, the paper outlines the various observational scenarios that were used in order to test various data processing aspects of PPP solutions with multi-frequency, multi-constellation GNSS systems. Results from the processing of multi-GNSS observation data from selected permanent MGEX stations are presented and useful conclusions and recommendations for further research are drawn. As shown, data fusion from GPS, GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou systems is becoming increasingly significant nowadays resulting in a position accuracy increase (mostly in the less favorable East direction) and a large reduction of convergence

  20. Position Accuracy Improvement by Implementing the DGNSS-CP Algorithm in Smartphones.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Donghwan; Kee, Changdon; Seo, Jiwon; Park, Byungwoon

    2016-01-01

    The position accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) modules is one of the most significant factors in determining the feasibility of new location-based services for smartphones. Considering the structure of current smartphones, it is impossible to apply the ordinary range-domain Differential GNSS (DGNSS) method. Therefore, this paper describes and applies a DGNSS-correction projection method to a commercial smartphone. First, the local line-of-sight unit vector is calculated using the elevation and azimuth angle provided in the position-related output of Android's LocationManager, and this is transformed to Earth-centered, Earth-fixed coordinates for use. To achieve position-domain correction for satellite systems other than GPS, such as GLONASS and BeiDou, the relevant line-of-sight unit vectors are used to construct an observation matrix suitable for multiple constellations. The results of static and dynamic tests show that the standalone GNSS accuracy is improved by about 30%-60%, thereby reducing the existing error of 3-4 m to just 1 m. The proposed algorithm enables the position error to be directly corrected via software, without the need to alter the hardware and infrastructure of the smartphone. This method of implementation and the subsequent improvement in performance are expected to be highly effective to portability and cost saving. PMID:27322284

  1. Position Accuracy Improvement by Implementing the DGNSS-CP Algorithm in Smartphones.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Donghwan; Kee, Changdon; Seo, Jiwon; Park, Byungwoon

    2016-06-18

    The position accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) modules is one of the most significant factors in determining the feasibility of new location-based services for smartphones. Considering the structure of current smartphones, it is impossible to apply the ordinary range-domain Differential GNSS (DGNSS) method. Therefore, this paper describes and applies a DGNSS-correction projection method to a commercial smartphone. First, the local line-of-sight unit vector is calculated using the elevation and azimuth angle provided in the position-related output of Android's LocationManager, and this is transformed to Earth-centered, Earth-fixed coordinates for use. To achieve position-domain correction for satellite systems other than GPS, such as GLONASS and BeiDou, the relevant line-of-sight unit vectors are used to construct an observation matrix suitable for multiple constellations. The results of static and dynamic tests show that the standalone GNSS accuracy is improved by about 30%-60%, thereby reducing the existing error of 3-4 m to just 1 m. The proposed algorithm enables the position error to be directly corrected via software, without the need to alter the hardware and infrastructure of the smartphone. This method of implementation and the subsequent improvement in performance are expected to be highly effective to portability and cost saving.

  2. High-Accuracy Positioning of an Industrial Robot Using Image/PSD-Based Hybrid Servo Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Yong; Xi, Ning; Shen, Yantao

    2011-04-01

    This article presents a new and effective multi-sensor-based control strategy for high-accuracy/precision and high-efficiency automatic robot positioning in the field of industrial robot calibration. The strategy combines both coarsely visual servo and fine position-sensitive detector (PSD) servo control methods. In a large field of view, an image-based visual servo control system is employed to roughly guide the laser spot, which is from a single laser pointer attached to the end-effector of a robot to project to the segmented PSDs with a resolution of better than 0.1 µm. Once the laser spot is projected onto the active area of the PSD surface, the control will automatically be switched to the PSD feedback and servoing for fine positioning. An image/PSD-based servoing system has been presented. Based on the system, the controller design and switch logic of the hybrid servoing are given. The experimental results conducted on an ABB industrial robot IRB1600 verified the effectiveness of the developed visual/PSD hybrid servo controllers, as well as demonstrated that the high accuracy of 30 µm of robot positioning can be approached. The development of the hybrid control method and system has played a major role in achieving high-performance automatic robot calibration.

  3. Position Accuracy Improvement by Implementing the DGNSS-CP Algorithm in Smartphones

    PubMed Central

    Yoon, Donghwan; Kee, Changdon; Seo, Jiwon; Park, Byungwoon

    2016-01-01

    The position accuracy of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) modules is one of the most significant factors in determining the feasibility of new location-based services for smartphones. Considering the structure of current smartphones, it is impossible to apply the ordinary range-domain Differential GNSS (DGNSS) method. Therefore, this paper describes and applies a DGNSS-correction projection method to a commercial smartphone. First, the local line-of-sight unit vector is calculated using the elevation and azimuth angle provided in the position-related output of Android’s LocationManager, and this is transformed to Earth-centered, Earth-fixed coordinates for use. To achieve position-domain correction for satellite systems other than GPS, such as GLONASS and BeiDou, the relevant line-of-sight unit vectors are used to construct an observation matrix suitable for multiple constellations. The results of static and dynamic tests show that the standalone GNSS accuracy is improved by about 30%–60%, thereby reducing the existing error of 3–4 m to just 1 m. The proposed algorithm enables the position error to be directly corrected via software, without the need to alter the hardware and infrastructure of the smartphone. This method of implementation and the subsequent improvement in performance are expected to be highly effective to portability and cost saving. PMID:27322284

  4. Genomic Prediction in Pea: Effect of Marker Density and Training Population Size and Composition on Prediction Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Tayeh, Nadim; Klein, Anthony; Le Paslier, Marie-Christine; Jacquin, Françoise; Houtin, Hervé; Rond, Céline; Chabert-Martinello, Marianne; Magnin-Robert, Jean-Bernard; Marget, Pascal; Aubert, Grégoire; Burstin, Judith

    2015-01-01

    Pea is an important food and feed crop and a valuable component of low-input farming systems. Improving resistance to biotic and abiotic stresses is a major breeding target to enhance yield potential and regularity. Genomic selection (GS) has lately emerged as a promising technique to increase the accuracy and gain of marker-based selection. It uses genome-wide molecular marker data to predict the breeding values of candidate lines to selection. A collection of 339 genetic resource accessions (CRB339) was subjected to high-density genotyping using the GenoPea 13.2K SNP Array. Genomic prediction accuracy was evaluated for thousand seed weight (TSW), the number of seeds per plant (NSeed), and the date of flowering (BegFlo). Mean cross-environment prediction accuracies reached 0.83 for TSW, 0.68 for NSeed, and 0.65 for BegFlo. For each trait, the statistical method, the marker density, and/or the training population size and composition used for prediction were varied to investigate their effects on prediction accuracy: the effect was large for the size and composition of the training population but limited for the statistical method and marker density. Maximizing the relatedness between individuals in the training and test sets, through the CDmean-based method, significantly improved prediction accuracies. A cross-population cross-validation experiment was further conducted using the CRB339 collection as a training population set and nine recombinant inbred lines populations as test set. Prediction quality was high with mean Q2 of 0.44 for TSW and 0.59 for BegFlo. Results are discussed in the light of current efforts to develop GS strategies in pea. PMID:26635819

  5. Estimated results analysis and application of the precise point positioning based high-accuracy ionosphere delay

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Shi-tai; Peng, Jun-huan

    2015-12-01

    The characterization of ionosphere delay estimated with precise point positioning is analyzed in this paper. The estimation, interpolation and application of the ionosphere delay are studied based on the processing of 24-h data from 5 observation stations. The results show that the estimated ionosphere delay is affected by the hardware delay bias from receiver so that there is a difference between the estimated and interpolated results. The results also show that the RMSs (root mean squares) are bigger, while the STDs (standard deviations) are better than 0.11 m. When the satellite difference is used, the hardware delay bias can be canceled. The interpolated satellite-differenced ionosphere delay is better than 0.11 m. Although there is a difference between the between the estimated and interpolated ionosphere delay results it cannot affect its application in single-frequency positioning and the positioning accuracy can reach cm level.

  6. Multi-sensor fusion with interacting multiple model filter for improved aircraft position accuracy.

    PubMed

    Cho, Taehwan; Lee, Changho; Choi, Sangbang

    2013-01-01

    The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has decided to adopt Communications, Navigation, and Surveillance/Air Traffic Management (CNS/ATM) as the 21st century standard for navigation. Accordingly, ICAO members have provided an impetus to develop related technology and build sufficient infrastructure. For aviation surveillance with CNS/ATM, Ground-Based Augmentation System (GBAS), Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B), multilateration (MLAT) and wide-area multilateration (WAM) systems are being established. These sensors can track aircraft positions more accurately than existing radar and can compensate for the blind spots in aircraft surveillance. In this paper, we applied a novel sensor fusion method with Interacting Multiple Model (IMM) filter to GBAS, ADS-B, MLAT, and WAM data in order to improve the reliability of the aircraft position. Results of performance analysis show that the position accuracy is improved by the proposed sensor fusion method with the IMM filter.

  7. Mapping stream habitats with a global positioning system: Accuracy, precision, and comparison with traditional methods

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.; Belt, K.C.

    2006-01-01

    We tested the precision and accuracy of the Trimble GeoXT??? global positioning system (GPS) handheld receiver on point and area features and compared estimates of stream habitat dimensions (e.g., lengths and areas of riffles and pools) that were made in three different Oklahoma streams using the GPS receiver and a tape measure. The precision of differentially corrected GPS (DGPS) points was not affected by the number of GPS position fixes (i.e., geographic location estimates) averaged per DGPS point. Horizontal error of points ranged from 0.03 to 2.77 m and did not differ with the number of position fixes per point. The error of area measurements ranged from 0.1% to 110.1% but decreased as the area increased. Again, error was independent of the number of position fixes averaged per polygon corner. The estimates of habitat lengths, widths, and areas did not differ when measured using two methods of data collection (GPS and a tape measure), nor did the differences among methods change at three stream sites with contrasting morphologies. Measuring features with a GPS receiver was up to 3.3 times faster on average than using a tape measure, although signal interference from high streambanks or overhanging vegetation occasionally limited satellite signal availability and prolonged measurements with a GPS receiver. There were also no differences in precision of habitat dimensions when mapped using a continuous versus a position fix average GPS data collection method. Despite there being some disadvantages to using the GPS in stream habitat studies, measuring stream habitats with a GPS resulted in spatially referenced data that allowed the assessment of relative habitat position and changes in habitats over time, and was often faster than using a tape measure. For most spatial scales of interest, the precision and accuracy of DGPS data are adequate and have logistical advantages when compared to traditional methods of measurement. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media

  8. Vehicle Position Estimation Based on Magnetic Markers: Enhanced Accuracy by Compensation of Time Delays

    PubMed Central

    Byun, Yeun-Sub; Jeong, Rag-Gyo; Kang, Seok-Won

    2015-01-01

    The real-time recognition of absolute (or relative) position and orientation on a network of roads is a core technology for fully automated or driving-assisted vehicles. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the design, implementation, and evaluation of a self-positioning system based on a magnetic marker reference sensing method for an autonomous vehicle. Specifically, the estimation accuracy of the magnetic sensing ruler (MSR) in the up-to-date estimation of the actual position was successfully enhanced by compensating for time delays in signal processing when detecting the vertical magnetic field (VMF) in an array of signals. In this study, the signal processing scheme was developed to minimize the effects of the distortion of measured signals when estimating the relative positional information based on magnetic signals obtained using the MSR. In other words, the center point in a 2D magnetic field contour plot corresponding to the actual position of magnetic markers was estimated by tracking the errors between pre-defined reference models and measured magnetic signals. The algorithm proposed in this study was validated by experimental measurements using a test vehicle on a pilot network of roads. From the results, the positioning error was found to be less than 0.04 m on average in an operational test. PMID:26580622

  9. Vehicle Position Estimation Based on Magnetic Markers: Enhanced Accuracy by Compensation of Time Delays.

    PubMed

    Byun, Yeun-Sub; Jeong, Rag-Gyo; Kang, Seok-Won

    2015-01-01

    The real-time recognition of absolute (or relative) position and orientation on a network of roads is a core technology for fully automated or driving-assisted vehicles. This paper presents an empirical investigation of the design, implementation, and evaluation of a self-positioning system based on a magnetic marker reference sensing method for an autonomous vehicle. Specifically, the estimation accuracy of the magnetic sensing ruler (MSR) in the up-to-date estimation of the actual position was successfully enhanced by compensating for time delays in signal processing when detecting the vertical magnetic field (VMF) in an array of signals. In this study, the signal processing scheme was developed to minimize the effects of the distortion of measured signals when estimating the relative positional information based on magnetic signals obtained using the MSR. In other words, the center point in a 2D magnetic field contour plot corresponding to the actual position of magnetic markers was estimated by tracking the errors between pre-defined reference models and measured magnetic signals. The algorithm proposed in this study was validated by experimental measurements using a test vehicle on a pilot network of roads. From the results, the positioning error was found to be less than 0.04 m on average in an operational test. PMID:26580622

  10. Predicting transition to the supine sleep position in preterm infants.

    PubMed

    McMullen, Sherri L; Carey, Mary G

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this secondary analysis was to determine what factors predict the transition of preterm infants to the supine sleep position prior to hospital discharge (N = 286). The supine position reduces the risk of sudden infant death syndrome. Factors found to predict a greater than 1-week transition to the supine sleep position were hospital policy (P < .001), gestational age (P < .001), and birth weight (P < .01). Transition to the supine position during hospitalization potentially reduces the risk of preterm infants being placed in nonsupine positions after hospitalization and, ultimately, the risk of untimely death by sudden infant death syndrome. PMID:25365287

  11. Accuracy of critical-temperature sensitivity coefficients predicted by multilayered composite plate theories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Noor, Ahmed K.; Burton, Scott

    1992-01-01

    An assessment is made of the accuracy of the critical-temperature sensitivity coefficients of multilayered plates predicted by different modeling approaches, based on two-dimensional shear-deformation theories. The sensitivity coefficients considered measure the sensitivity of the critical temperatures to variations in different lamination and material parameters of the plate. The standard of comparison is taken to be the sensitivity coefficients obtained by the three-dimensional theory of thermoelasticity. Numerical studies are presented showing the effects of variation in the geometric and lamination parameters of the plate on the accuracy of both the sensitivity coefficients and the critical temperatures predicted by the different modeling approaches.

  12. High accuracy motor controller for positioning optical filters in the CLAES Spectrometer

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thatcher, John B.

    1989-01-01

    The Etalon Drive Motor (EDM), a precision etalon control system designed for accurate positioning of etalon filters in the IR spectrometer of the Cryogenic Limb Array Etalon Spectrometer (CLAES) experiment is described. The EDM includes a brushless dc torque motor, which has an infinite resolution for setting an etalon filter to any desired angle, a four-filter etalon wheel, and an electromechanical resolver for angle information. An 18-bit control loop provides high accuracy, resolution, and stability. Dynamic computer interaction allows the user to optimize the step response. A block diagram of the motor controller is presented along with a schematic of the digital/analog converter circuit.

  13. [Positional accuracy and quality assurance of Backup JAWs required for volumetric modulated arc therapy].

    PubMed

    Tatsumi, Daisaku; Nakada, Ryosei; Ienaga, Akinori; Yomoda, Akane; Inoue, Makoto; Ichida, Takao; Hosono, Masako

    2012-01-01

    The tolerance of the Backup diaphragm (Backup JAW) setting in Elekta linac was specified as 2 mm according to the AAPM TG-142 report. However, the tolerance and the quality assurance procedure for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) was not provided. This paper describes positional accuracy and quality assurance procedure of the Backup JAWs required for VMAT. It was found that a gap-width error of the Backup JAW by a sliding window test needed to be less than 1.5 mm for prostate VMAT delivery. It was also confirmed that the gap-widths had been maintained with an error of 0.2 mm during the past one year.

  14. Accuracy improvement in peak positioning of spectrally distorted fiber Bragg grating sensors by Gaussian curve fitting

    SciTech Connect

    Lee, Hyun-Wook; Park, Hyoung-Jun; Lee, June-Ho; Song, Minho

    2007-04-20

    To improve measurement accuracy of spectrally distorted fiber Bragg grating temperature sensors, reflection profiles were curve fitted to Gaussian shapes, of which center positions were transformed into temperature information.By applying the Gaussian curve-fitting algorithm in a tunable bandpass filter demodulation scheme,{approx}0.3 deg. C temperature resolution was obtained with a severely distorted grating sensor, which was much better than that obtained using the highest peak search algorithm. A binary search was also used to retrieve the optimal fitting curves with the least amount of processing time.

  15. Even modest prediction accuracy of genomic models can have large clinical utility.

    PubMed

    Dhurandhar, Emily J; Vazquez, Ana I; Argyropoulos, George A; Allison, David B

    2014-01-01

    Whole Genome Prediction (WGP) jointly fits thousands of SNPs into a regression model to yield estimates for the contribution of markers to the overall variance of a particular trait, and for their associations with that trait. To date, WGP has offered only modest prediction accuracy, but in some cases even modest prediction accuracy may be useful. We provide an illustration of this using a theoretical simulation that used WGP to predict weight loss after bariatric surgery with moderate accuracy (R (2) = 0.07) to assess the clinical utility of WGP despite these limitations. Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) post-surgery was considered the major outcome. Treating only patients above predefined threshold of predicted weight loss in our simulation, in the realistic context of finite resources for the surgery, significantly reduced lifetime risk of T2DM in the treatable population by selecting those most likely to succeed. Thus, our example illustrates how WGP may be clinically useful in some situations, and even with moderate accuracy, may provide a clear path for turning personalized medicine from theory to reality.

  16. Even modest prediction accuracy of genomic models can have large clinical utility

    PubMed Central

    Dhurandhar, Emily J.; Vazquez, Ana I.; Argyropoulos, George A.; Allison, David B.

    2014-01-01

    Whole Genome Prediction (WGP) jointly fits thousands of SNPs into a regression model to yield estimates for the contribution of markers to the overall variance of a particular trait, and for their associations with that trait. To date, WGP has offered only modest prediction accuracy, but in some cases even modest prediction accuracy may be useful. We provide an illustration of this using a theoretical simulation that used WGP to predict weight loss after bariatric surgery with moderate accuracy (R2 = 0.07) to assess the clinical utility of WGP despite these limitations. Prevention of Type 2 Diabetes (T2DM) post-surgery was considered the major outcome. Treating only patients above predefined threshold of predicted weight loss in our simulation, in the realistic context of finite resources for the surgery, significantly reduced lifetime risk of T2DM in the treatable population by selecting those most likely to succeed. Thus, our example illustrates how WGP may be clinically useful in some situations, and even with moderate accuracy, may provide a clear path for turning personalized medicine from theory to reality. PMID:25506355

  17. Accuracy assessment of the ERP prediction method based on analysis of 100-year ERP series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malkin, Z.; Tissen, V. M.

    2012-12-01

    A new method has been developed at the Siberian Research Institute of Metrology (SNIIM) for highly accurate prediction of UT1 and Pole motion (PM). In this study, a detailed comparison was made of real-time UT1 predictions made in 2006-2011 and PMpredictions made in 2009-2011making use of the SNIIM method with simultaneous predictions computed at the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS), USNO. Obtained results have shown that proposed method provides better accuracy at different prediction lengths.

  18. High accuracy integrated global positioning system/inertial navigation system LDRD: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Owen, T.E.; Meindl, M.A.; Fellerhoff, J.R.

    1997-03-01

    This report contains the results of a Sandia National Laboratories Directed Research and Development (LDRD) program to investigate the integration of Global Positioning System (GPS) and inertial navigation system (INS) technologies toward the goal of optimizing the navigational accuracy of the combined GPSANS system. The approach undertaken is to integrate the data from an INS, which has long term drifts, but excellent short term accuracy, with GPS carrier phase signal information, which is accurate to the sub-centimeter level, but requires continuous tracking of the GPS signals. The goal is to maintain a sub-meter accurate navigation solution while the vehicle is in motion by using the GPS measurements to estimate the INS navigation errors and then using the refined INS data to aid the GPS carrier phase cycle slip detection and correction and bridge dropouts in the GPS data. The work was expanded to look at GPS-based attitude determination, using multiple GPS receivers and antennas on a single platform, as a possible navigation aid. Efforts included not only the development of data processing algorithms and software, but also the collection and analysis of GPS and INS flight data aboard a Twin Otter aircraft. Finally, the application of improved navigation system accuracy to synthetic aperture radar (SAR) target location is examined.

  19. Predicted accuracy of and response to genomic selection for new traits in dairy cattle.

    PubMed

    Calus, M P L; de Haas, Y; Pszczola, M; Veerkamp, R F

    2013-02-01

    Genomic selection relaxes the requirement of traditional selection tools to have phenotypic measurements on close relatives of all selection candidates. This opens up possibilities to select for traits that are difficult or expensive to measure. The objectives of this paper were to predict accuracy of and response to genomic selection for a new trait, considering that only a cow reference population of moderate size was available for the new trait, and that selection simultaneously targeted an index and this new trait. Accuracy for and response to selection were deterministically evaluated for three different breeding goals. Single trait selection for the new trait based only on a limited cow reference population of up to 10 000 cows, showed that maximum genetic responses of 0.20 and 0.28 genetic standard deviation (s.d.) per year can be achieved for traits with a heritability of 0.05 and 0.30, respectively. Adding information from the index based on a reference population of 5000 bulls, and assuming a genetic correlation of 0.5, increased genetic response for both heritability levels by up to 0.14 genetic s.d. per year. The scenario with simultaneous selection for the new trait and the index, yielded a substantially lower response for the new trait, especially when the genetic correlation with the index was negative. Despite the lower response for the index, whenever the new trait had considerable economic value, including the cow reference population considerably improved the genetic response for the new trait. For scenarios with a zero or negative genetic correlation with the index and equal economic value for the index and the new trait, a reference population of 2000 cows increased genetic response for the new trait with at least 0.10 and 0.20 genetic s.d. per year, for heritability levels of 0.05 and 0.30, respectively. We conclude that for new traits with a very small or positive genetic correlation with the index, and a high positive economic value

  20. The devil is in the specificity: the negative effect of prediction specificity on prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Song-Oh; Suk, Kwanho; Goo, Jin Kyung; Lee, Jiheon; Lee, Seon Min

    2013-07-01

    In the research reported here, we proposed and demonstrated the prediction-specificity effect, which states that people's prediction of the general outcome of an event (e.g., the winner of a soccer match) is less accurate when the prediction question is framed in a more specific manner (e.g., guessing the score) rather than in a less specific manner (e.g., guessing the winner). We demonstrated this effect by examining people's predictions on actual sports games both in field and laboratory studies. In Study 1, the analysis of 19 billion bets from a commercial sports-betting business provided evidence for the effect of prediction specificity. This effect was replicated in three controlled laboratory studies, in which participants predicted the outcomes of a series of soccer matches. Furthermore, the negative effect of prediction specificity was mediated by participants' underweighting of important holistic information during decision making.

  1. Quality assurance of stereotactic alignment and patient positioning mechanical accuracy for robotized Gamma Knife radiosurgery.

    PubMed

    Ma, Lijun; Chiu, Joshua; Hoye, Jocelyn; McGuiness, Christopher; Perez-Andujar, Angelica

    2014-12-01

    The automatic patient positioning system and its alignment is critical and specified to be less than 0.35 mm for a radiosurgical treatment with the latest robotized Gamma Knife Perfexion (GKPFX). In this study, we developed a quantitative QA procedure to verify the accuracy and robustness of such a system. In particular, we applied the test to a unit that has performed >1000 procedures at our institution. For the test, a radiochromic film was first placed inside a spherical film phantom and then irradiated with a sequence of linearly placed shots of equal collimator size (e.g. 4 mm) via the Leksell Gamma Knife Perfexion system (PFX). The shots were positioned with either equal or unequal gaps of approximately 8 mm both at center and off-center positions of the patient positioning system. Two independent methods of localizing the irradiation shot center coordinates were employed to measure the gap spacing between adjacent shots. The measured distance was then compared with the initial preset values for the test. On average, the positioning uncertainty for the PFX delivery system was found to be 0.03 ± 0.2 mm (2σ). No significant difference in the positioning uncertainty was noted among measurements in the x-, y- and z-axis orientations. In conclusion, a simple, fast, and quantitative test was developed and demonstrated for routine QA of the submillimeter PFX patient positioning system. This test also enables independent verification of any patient-specific shot positioning for a critical treatment such as a tumor in the brainstem.

  2. Probability of criminal acts of violence: a test of jury predictive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Reidy, Thomas J; Sorensen, Jon R; Cunningham, Mark D

    2013-01-01

    The ability of capital juries to accurately predict future prison violence at the sentencing phase of aggravated murder trials was examined through retrospective review of the disciplinary records of 115 male inmates sentenced to either life (n = 65) or death (n = 50) in Oregon from 1985 through 2008, with a mean post-conviction time at risk of 15.3 years. Violent prison behavior was completely unrelated to predictions made by capital jurors, with bidirectional accuracy simply reflecting the base rate of assaultive misconduct in the group. Rejection of the special issue predicting future violence enjoyed 90% accuracy. Conversely, predictions that future violence was probable had 90% error rates. More than 90% of the assaultive rule violations committed by these offenders resulted in no harm or only minor injuries.

  3. Probability of criminal acts of violence: a test of jury predictive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Reidy, Thomas J; Sorensen, Jon R; Cunningham, Mark D

    2013-01-01

    The ability of capital juries to accurately predict future prison violence at the sentencing phase of aggravated murder trials was examined through retrospective review of the disciplinary records of 115 male inmates sentenced to either life (n = 65) or death (n = 50) in Oregon from 1985 through 2008, with a mean post-conviction time at risk of 15.3 years. Violent prison behavior was completely unrelated to predictions made by capital jurors, with bidirectional accuracy simply reflecting the base rate of assaultive misconduct in the group. Rejection of the special issue predicting future violence enjoyed 90% accuracy. Conversely, predictions that future violence was probable had 90% error rates. More than 90% of the assaultive rule violations committed by these offenders resulted in no harm or only minor injuries. PMID:23613146

  4. Patient positioning and the accuracy of pulmonary artery pressure measurements (180f).

    PubMed

    Shih, F J

    1999-12-01

    The measurement of pulmonary artery pressure (PAP) is a common nursing practice in hemodynamic monitoring of patients in the emergency room and intensive care unit. Several researchers have proposed that PAP should be measured with the patient in a supine position with legs horizontal in order to promote a relaxed state. The most widely used reference point is the phlebostatic axis, which is located at the intersection of the fourth intercostal space and the midchest level. However, this positioning requirement is in conflict with one of the goals of nursing care, which is to achieve comfortable positioning of the patient without compromising respiratory or cardiovascular function. In addition, since frequent readings are necessary, critically ill patients can lose valuable sleep time. The existing literature still fails to justify the validity of the phlebostatic axis as an external reference point for leveling the pressure transducer. In addition, findings on the accuracy of readings obtained in the supine, Fowler's and lateral recumbent positions are also in conflict. This paper reviewed research related to measurement of PAP in the supine, various Fowler's, and lateral positions in order to clarify the major factors which might have resulted in the conflicts in data on PAP measurements. Suggestions are also provided for nurse clinicians to obtain more accurate PAP measurements. PMID:10576120

  5. Accuracy of relative positioning by interferometry with GPS Double-blind test results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Counselman, C. C., III; Gourevitch, S. A.; Herring, T. A.; King, B. W.; Shapiro, I. I.; Cappallo, R. J.; Rogers, A. E. E.; Whitney, A. R.; Greenspan, R. L.; Snyder, R. E.

    1983-01-01

    MITES (Miniature Interferometer Terminals for Earth Surveying) observations conducted on December 17 and 29, 1980, are analyzed. It is noted that the time span of the observations used on each day was 78 minutes, during which five satellites were always above 20 deg elevation. The observations are analyzed to determine the intersite position vectors by means of the algorithm described by Couselman and Gourevitch (1981). The average of the MITES results from the two days is presented. The rms differences between the two determinations of the components of the three vectors, which were about 65, 92, and 124 m long, were 8 mm for the north, 3 mm for the east, and 6 mm for the vertical. It is concluded that, at least for short distances, relative positioning by interferometry with GPS can be done reliably with subcentimeter accuracy.

  6. Position detection accuracy of a novel linac-mounted intrafractional x-ray imaging system

    SciTech Connect

    Fast, Martin F.; Krauss, Andreas; Oelfke, Uwe; Nill, Simeon

    2012-01-15

    Purpose: The authors have developed a system that monitors intrafractional target motion perpendicular to the treatment beam with the aid of radioopaque markers by means of separating kV image and megavoltage (MV) treatment field on a single flat-panel detector. Methods: They equipped a research Siemens Artiste linear accelerator (linac) with a 41 x 41 cm{sup 2} a-Si flat-panel detector underneath the treatment head. The in-line geometry allows kV (imaging) and MV (treatment) beams to share closely aligned beam axes. The kV source, usually mounted directly across from the flat-panel imager, was retracted toward the gantry by 13 cm to intentionally misalign kV and MV beams, resulting in a geometric separation of MV treatment field and kV image on the detector. Two consecutive images acquired within 140 ms (the first with MV-only and the second with kV and MV signal) were subtracted to generate a kV-only image. The images were then analyzed ''online'' with an automated threshold-based marker detection algorithm. They employed a 3D and a 4D phantom equipped with either a single radioopaque marker or three Calypso beacons to mimic respiratory motion. Measured room positions were either cross-referenced with a phantom voltage signal (single marker) or the Calypso system. The accuracy of the back-projection (from detected marker positions into room coordinates) was verified by a simulation study. Results: A phantom study has demonstrated that the imaging framework is capable of automatically detecting marker positions and sending this information to the tracking tool at an update rate of 7.14 Hz. The system latency is 86.9 {+-} 1.0 ms for single marker detection in the absence of MV radiation. In the presence of a circular MV field of 5 cm diameter, the latency is 87.1 {+-} 0.9 ms. The total RMS position detection accuracy is 0.20 mm (without MV radiation) and 0.23 mm (with MV). Conclusions: Based on the evaluated motion patterns and MV field size, the positional

  7. Comparison between predicted and actual accuracies for an Ultra-Precision CNC measuring machine

    SciTech Connect

    Thompson, D.C.; Fix, B.L.

    1995-05-30

    At the 1989 CIRP annual meeting, we reported on the design of a specialized, ultra-precision CNC measuring machine, and on the error budget that was developed to guide the design process. In our paper we proposed a combinatorial rule for merging estimated and/or calculated values for all known sources of error, to yield a single overall predicted accuracy for the machine. In this paper we compare our original predictions with measured performance of the completed instrument.

  8. Effect of Traffic Position Accuracy for Conducting Safe Airport Surface Operations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jones, Denise R.; Prinzel, Lawrence J., III; Bailey, Randall E.; Arthur, Jarvis J., III; Barnes, James R.

    2014-01-01

    The Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen) concept proposes many revolutionary operational concepts and technologies, such as display of traffic information and movements, airport moving maps (AMM), and proactive alerts of runway incursions and surface traffic conflicts, to deliver an overall increase in system capacity and safety. A piloted simulation study was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Langley Research Center to evaluate the ability to conduct safe and efficient airport surface operations while utilizing an AMM displaying traffic of various position accuracies as well as the effect of traffic position accuracy on airport conflict detection and resolution (CD&R) capability. Nominal scenarios and off-nominal conflict scenarios were conducted using 12 airline crews operating in a simulated Memphis International Airport terminal environment. The data suggest that all traffic should be shown on the airport moving map, whether qualified or unqualified, and conflict detection and resolution technologies provide significant safety benefits. Despite the presence of traffic information on the map, collisions or near collisions still occurred; when indications or alerts were generated in these same scenarios, the incidences were averted.

  9. Reduction in accuracy of genomic prediction for ordered categorical data compared to continuous observations

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Accuracy of genomic prediction depends on number of records in the training population, heritability, effective population size, genetic architecture, and relatedness of training and validation populations. Many traits have ordered categories including reproductive performance and susceptibility or resistance to disease. Categorical scores are often recorded because they are easier to obtain than continuous observations. Bayesian linear regression has been extended to the threshold model for genomic prediction. The objective of this study was to quantify reductions in accuracy for ordinal categorical traits relative to continuous traits. Methods Efficiency of genomic prediction was evaluated for heritabilities of 0.10, 0.25 or 0.50. Phenotypes were simulated for 2250 purebred animals using 50 QTL selected from actual 50k SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) genotypes giving a proportion of causal to total loci of.0001. A Bayes C π threshold model simultaneously fitted all 50k markers except those that represented QTL. Estimated SNP effects were utilized to predict genomic breeding values in purebred (n = 239) or multibreed (n = 924) validation populations. Correlations between true and predicted genomic merit in validation populations were used to assess predictive ability. Results Accuracies of genomic estimated breeding values ranged from 0.12 to 0.66 for purebred and from 0.04 to 0.53 for multibreed validation populations based on Bayes C π linear model analysis of the simulated underlying variable. Accuracies for ordinal categorical scores analyzed by the Bayes C π threshold model were 20% to 50% lower and ranged from 0.04 to 0.55 for purebred and from 0.01 to 0.44 for multibreed validation populations. Analysis of ordinal categorical scores using a linear model resulted in further reductions in accuracy. Conclusions Threshold traits result in markedly lower accuracy than a linear model on the underlying variable. To achieve an accuracy equal or

  10. Predictive Validity and Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency for English Learners

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vanderwood, Michael L.; Tung, Catherine Y.; Checca, C. Jason

    2014-01-01

    The predictive validity and accuracy of an oral reading fluency (ORF) measure for a statewide assessment in English language arts was examined for second-grade native English speakers (NESs) and English learners (ELs) with varying levels of English proficiency. In addition to comparing ELs with native English speakers, the impact of English…

  11. Advancing monthly streamflow prediction accuracy of CART models using ensemble learning paradigms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Erdal, Halil Ibrahim; Karakurt, Onur

    2013-01-01

    SummaryStreamflow forecasting is one of the most important steps in the water resources planning and management. Ensemble techniques such as bagging, boosting and stacking have gained popularity in hydrological forecasting in the recent years. The study investigates the potential usage of two ensemble learning paradigms (i.e., bagging; stochastic gradient boosting) in building classification and regression trees (CARTs) ensembles to advance the streamflow prediction accuracy. The study, initially, investigates the use of classification and regression trees for monthly streamflow forecasting and employs a support vector regression (SVR) model as the benchmark model. The analytic results indicate that CART outperforms SVR in both training and testing phases. Although the obtained results of CART model in training phase are considerable, it is not in testing phase. Thus, to optimize the prediction accuracy of CART for monthly streamflow forecasting, we incorporate bagging and stochastic gradient boosting which are rooted in same philosophy, advancing the prediction accuracy of weak learners. Comparing with the results of bagged regression trees (BRTs) and stochastic gradient boosted regression trees (GBRTs) models possess satisfactory monthly streamflow forecasting performance than CART and SVR models. Overall, it is found that ensemble learning paradigms can remarkably advance the prediction accuracy of CART models in monthly streamflow forecasting.

  12. Phishtest: Measuring the Impact of Email Headers on the Predictive Accuracy of Machine Learning Techniques

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tout, Hicham

    2013-01-01

    The majority of documented phishing attacks have been carried by email, yet few studies have measured the impact of email headers on the predictive accuracy of machine learning techniques in detecting email phishing attacks. Research has shown that the inclusion of a limited subset of email headers as features in training machine learning…

  13. An Information-Processing Analysis of Children's Accuracy in Predicting the Appearance of Rotated Stimuli.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Rosser, Rosemary A.; And Others

    1984-01-01

    The ability of 40 children four and five years of age to discriminate reflections and rotations of visual stimuli was examined in a kinetic imagery task. Results revealed that prediction accuracy was associated with the existence of orientation markers on the stimuli, as well as age, sex, type of discrimination, and several interactions among the…

  14. Predictive accuracy of the Miller assessment for preschoolers in children with prenatal drug exposure.

    PubMed

    Fulks, Mary-Ann L; Harris, Susan R

    2005-01-01

    The Miller Assessment for Preschoolers (MAP) is a standardized test purported to identify preschool-aged children at risk for later learning difficulties. We evaluated the predictive validity of the MAP Total Score, relative to later cognitive performance and across a range of possible cut-points, in 37 preschool-aged children with prenatal drug exposure. Criterion measures were the Wechsler Preschool & Primary Scale of Intelligence-Revised (WPPSI-R), Test of Early Reading Ability-2, Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test-Revised, and Developmental Test of Visual Motor Integration. The highest predictive accuracy was demonstrated when the WPPSI-R was the criterion measure. The 14th percentile cutoff point demonstrated the highest predictive accuracy across all measures.

  15. SherLoc2: a high-accuracy hybrid method for predicting subcellular localization of proteins.

    PubMed

    Briesemeister, Sebastian; Blum, Torsten; Brady, Scott; Lam, Yin; Kohlbacher, Oliver; Shatkay, Hagit

    2009-11-01

    SherLoc2 is a comprehensive high-accuracy subcellular localization prediction system. It is applicable to animal, fungal, and plant proteins and covers all main eukaryotic subcellular locations. SherLoc2 integrates several sequence-based features as well as text-based features. In addition, we incorporate phylogenetic profiles and Gene Ontology (GO) terms derived from the protein sequence to considerably improve the prediction performance. SherLoc2 achieves an overall classification accuracy of up to 93% in 5-fold cross-validation. A novel feature, DiaLoc, allows users to manually provide their current background knowledge by describing a protein in a short abstract which is then used to improve the prediction. SherLoc2 is available both as a free Web service and as a stand-alone version at http://www-bs.informatik.uni-tuebingen.de/Services/SherLoc2.

  16. Predicting fish species distribution in estuaries: Influence of species' ecology in model accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    França, Susana; Cabral, Henrique N.

    2016-10-01

    Current threats to biodiversity, combined with limited data availability, have made for species distribution models (SDMs) to be increasingly used due to their ability to predict species' potential distribution, by relating species occurrence with environmental estimates. Often used in ecology, conservation biology and environmental management, SDMs have been informing conservation strategies, and thus it is becoming crucial to understand how trustworthy their predictions are. Uncertainty in model predictions is expected, but knowing the origin of prediction errors may help reducing it. Indeed, uncertainty may be related not only with data quality and the modelling algorithm used, but also with species ecological characteristics. To investigate whether the performance of SDM's may vary with species' ecological characteristics, distribution models for 21 fish species occurring in estuaries from the Portuguese coast were examined. These models were built at two distinct spatial resolutions and seven environmental explanatory variables were used as predictors. SDMs' accuracy was assessed with the area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristics (ROC) plots, sensitivity and specificity. Relationships between each measure of accuracy and species ecological characteristics were then examined. SDMs of the fish species presented small differences between the considered scales, and predictors as latitude, temperature and salinity were often selected at both scales. Measures of model accuracy presented differences between species and scales, but generally higher accuracy was obtained at smaller spatial scales. Among the ecological traits tested, species feeding mode and estuarine use functional groups were the most influential on the performance of distribution models. Habitat tolerance (number of habitat types frequented), species abundance, body size and spawning period also showed some effect. This analyses will contribute to distinguish, based on species

  17. An other perspective on personality: meta-analytic integration of observers' accuracy and predictive validity.

    PubMed

    Connelly, Brian S; Ones, Deniz S

    2010-11-01

    The bulk of personality research has been built from self-report measures of personality. However, collecting personality ratings from other-raters, such as family, friends, and even strangers, is a dramatically underutilized method that allows better explanation and prediction of personality's role in many domains of psychology. Drawing hypotheses from D. C. Funder's (1995) realistic accuracy model about trait and information moderators of accuracy, we offer 3 meta-analyses to help researchers and applied psychologists understand and interpret both consistencies and unique insights afforded by other-ratings of personality. These meta-analyses integrate findings based on 44,178 target individuals rated across 263 independent samples. Each meta-analysis assessed the accuracy of observer ratings, as indexed by interrater consensus/reliability (Study 1), self-other correlations (Study 2), and predictions of behavior (Study 3). The results show that although increased frequency of interacting with targets does improve accuracy in rating personality, informants' interpersonal intimacy with the target is necessary for substantial increases in other-rating accuracy. Interpersonal intimacy improved accuracy especially for traits low in visibility (e.g., Emotional Stability) but only minimally for traits high in evaluativeness (e.g., Agreeableness). In addition, observer ratings were strong predictors of behaviors. When the criterion was academic achievement or job performance, other-ratings yielded predictive validities substantially greater than and incremental to self-ratings. These findings indicate that extraordinary value can gained by using other-reports to measure personality, and these findings provide guidelines toward enriching personality theory. Various subfields of psychology in which personality variables are systematically assessed and utilized in research and practice can benefit tremendously from use of others' ratings to measure personality variables.

  18. Accuracy of Genomic Prediction in Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Improved by Accounting for Linkage Disequilibrium

    PubMed Central

    Ramstein, Guillaume P.; Evans, Joseph; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; Mitchell, Robert B.; Vogel, Kenneth P.; Buell, C. Robin; Casler, Michael D.

    2016-01-01

    Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height, and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families’ parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs. PMID:26869619

  19. Accuracy of Genomic Prediction in Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) Improved by Accounting for Linkage Disequilibrium.

    PubMed

    Ramstein, Guillaume P; Evans, Joseph; Kaeppler, Shawn M; Mitchell, Robert B; Vogel, Kenneth P; Buell, C Robin; Casler, Michael D

    2016-04-07

    Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height, and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families' parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs.

  20. The accuracy of station positions determined from inhomogeneous laser ranging data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kuzmicz-Cieslak, Magdalena; Schillak, Stanislaw

    The paper presents positions of 34 Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) stations as determined in the ITRF97 system from the LAGEOS-2 laser ranging data. Three different variants of data selection were used to determine the coordinates of the stations. The calculations were performed with the use of the GEODYN II and SOLVE programs on the basis of monthly orbital arcs for 1999. The accuracy of the results for a given station strongly depends on a number and quality of observations. Preferably at least 50 of normal points per station in one month should be used for coordinates determination. The variant of orbit determination from 16 the best stations is more accurate than from all 34 stations.

  1. Bias corrected double judgment accuracy during spatial attention cueing: unmasked stimuli with non-predictive and semi-predictive cues.

    PubMed

    Pack, Weston; Klein, Stanley A; Carney, Thom

    2014-12-01

    The present experiments indicate that in a 7-AFC double judgment accuracy task with unmasked stimuli, cue location response bias can be quantified and removed, revealing unbiased improvements in response accuracy for valid cues compared to invalid cues. By testing for cueing effects over a range of contrast levels with unmasked stimuli, changes in the psychometric function were examined and provide insight into the mechanisms of involuntary attention which might account for the observed cueing effects. Cue validity was varied between two separate experiments showing that non-predictive (14.3%) and moderately-predictive cues (50%) equally facilitate stimulus identification and localization during transient involuntary attention capture. Observers had improved accuracy at identifying both the location and the feature identity of target letters throughout a range of contrast levels, without any dependence on backward masking. There was a leftward shift of the psychometric function threshold with valid cued data and no slope reduction suggesting that any additive hypothesis based on spatial uncertainty reduction or perceptual enhancement is not a sufficient explanation for the observed cueing effects. The interdependence of the perceptual processes of stimulus discrimination and localization were also investigated by analyzing response contingencies, showing that observers were equally skilled at making identification and localization accuracy judgments with unmasked stimuli.

  2. Numerical simulation of turbulence flow in a Kaplan turbine -Evaluation on turbine performance prediction accuracy-

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ko, P.; Kurosawa, S.

    2014-03-01

    The understanding and accurate prediction of the flow behaviour related to cavitation and pressure fluctuation in a Kaplan turbine are important to the design work enhancing the turbine performance including the elongation of the operation life span and the improvement of turbine efficiency. In this paper, high accuracy turbine and cavitation performance prediction method based on entire flow passage for a Kaplan turbine is presented and evaluated. Two-phase flow field is predicted by solving Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes equations expressed by volume of fluid method tracking the free surface and combined with Reynolds Stress model. The growth and collapse of cavitation bubbles are modelled by the modified Rayleigh-Plesset equation. The prediction accuracy is evaluated by comparing with the model test results of Ns 400 Kaplan model turbine. As a result that the experimentally measured data including turbine efficiency, cavitation performance, and pressure fluctuation are accurately predicted. Furthermore, the cavitation occurrence on the runner blade surface and the influence to the hydraulic loss of the flow passage are discussed. Evaluated prediction method for the turbine flow and performance is introduced to facilitate the future design and research works on Kaplan type turbine.

  3. Combined Scintigraphy and Tumor Marker Analysis Predicts Unfavorable Histopathology of Neuroblastic Tumors with High Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Fendler, Wolfgang Peter; Wenter, Vera; Thornton, Henriette Ingrid; Ilhan, Harun; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Coppenrath, Eva; Schmid, Irene; Bartenstein, Peter; Pfluger, Thomas

    2015-01-01

    Objectives Our aim was to improve the prediction of unfavorable histopathology (UH) in neuroblastic tumors through combined imaging and biochemical parameters. Methods 123I-MIBG SPECT and MRI was performed before surgical resection or biopsy in 47 consecutive pediatric patients with neuroblastic tumor. Semi-quantitative tumor-to-liver count-rate ratio (TLCRR), MRI tumor size and margins, urine catecholamine and NSE blood levels of neuron specific enolase (NSE) were recorded. Accuracy of single and combined variables for prediction of UH was tested by ROC analysis with Bonferroni correction. Results 34 of 47 patients had UH based on the International Neuroblastoma Pathology Classification (INPC). TLCRR and serum NSE both predicted UH with moderate accuracy. Optimal cut-off for TLCRR was 2.0, resulting in 68% sensitivity and 100% specificity (AUC-ROC 0.86, p < 0.001). Optimal cut-off for NSE was 25.8 ng/ml, resulting in 74% sensitivity and 85% specificity (AUC-ROC 0.81, p = 0.001). Combination of TLCRR/NSE criteria reduced false negative findings from 11/9 to only five, with improved sensitivity and specificity of 85% (AUC-ROC 0.85, p < 0.001). Conclusion Strong 123I-MIBG uptake and high serum level of NSE were each predictive of UH. Combined analysis of both parameters improved the prediction of UH in patients with neuroblastic tumor. MRI parameters and urine catecholamine levels did not predict UH. PMID:26177109

  4. Accuracy of three-dimensional soft tissue predictions in orthognathic surgery after Le Fort I advancement osteotomies.

    PubMed

    Ullah, R; Turner, P J; Khambay, B S

    2015-02-01

    Prediction of postoperative facial appearance after orthognathic surgery can be used for communication, managing patients' expectations,avoiding postoperative dissatisfaction and exploring different treatment options. We have assessed the accuracy of 3dMD Vultus in predicting the final 3-dimensional soft tissue facial morphology after Le Fort I advancement osteotomy. We retrospectively studied 13 patients who were treated with a Le Fort I advancement osteotomy alone. We used routine cone-beam computed tomographic (CT) images taken immediately before and a minimum of 6 months after operation, and 3dMD Vultus to virtually reposition the preoperative maxilla and mandible in their post operative positions to generate a prediction of what the soft tissue would look like. Segmented anatomical areas of the predicted mesh were then compared with the actual soft tissue. The means of the absolute distance between the 90th percentile of the mesh points for each region were calculated, and a one-sample Student's t test was used to calculate if the difference differed significantly from 3 mm.The differences in the mean absolute distances between the actual soft tissue and the prediction were significantly below 3 mm for all segmented anatomical areas (p < 0.001), and ranged from 0.65 mm (chin) to 1.17 mm (upper lip). 3dMD Vultus produces clinically satisfactory 3-dimensional facial soft tissue predictions after Le Fort I advancement osteotomy. The mass-spring model for prediction seems to be able to predict the position of the lip and chin, but its ability to predict nasal and paranasal areas could be improved.

  5. Empirical Accuracies of U.S. Space Surveillance Network Reentry Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Nicholas L.

    2008-01-01

    The U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) issues formal satellite reentry predictions for objects which have the potential for generating debris which could pose a hazard to people or property on Earth. These prognostications, known as Tracking and Impact Prediction (TIP) messages, are nominally distributed at daily intervals beginning four days prior to the anticipated reentry and several times during the final 24 hours in orbit. The accuracy of these messages depends on the nature of the satellite s orbit, the characteristics of the space vehicle, solar activity, and many other factors. Despite the many influences on the time and the location of reentry, a useful assessment of the accuracies of TIP messages can be derived and compared with the official accuracies included with each TIP message. This paper summarizes the results of a study of numerous uncontrolled reentries of spacecraft and rocket bodies from nearly circular orbits over a span of several years. Insights are provided into the empirical accuracies and utility of SSN TIP messages.

  6. Openstage: A Low-Cost Motorized Microscope Stage with Sub-Micron Positioning Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Campbell, Robert A. A.; Eifert, Robert W.; Turner, Glenn C.

    2014-01-01

    Recent progress in intracellular calcium sensors and other fluorophores has promoted the widespread adoption of functional optical imaging in the life sciences. Home-built multiphoton microscopes are easy to build, highly customizable, and cost effective. For many imaging applications a 3-axis motorized stage is critical, but commercially available motorization hardware (motorized translators, controller boxes, etc) are often very expensive. Furthermore, the firmware on commercial motor controllers cannot easily be altered and is not usually designed with a microscope stage in mind. Here we describe an open-source motorization solution that is simple to construct, yet far cheaper and more customizable than commercial offerings. The cost of the controller and motorization hardware are under $1000. Hardware costs are kept low by replacing linear actuators with high quality stepper motors. Electronics are assembled from commonly available hobby components, which are easy to work with. Here we describe assembly of the system and quantify the positioning accuracy of all three axes. We obtain positioning repeatability of the order of in X/Y and in Z. A hand-held control-pad allows the user to direct stage motion precisely over a wide range of speeds ( to ), rapidly store and return to different locations, and execute “jumps” of a fixed size. In addition, the system can be controlled from a PC serial port. Our “OpenStage” controller is sufficiently flexible that it could be used to drive other devices, such as micro-manipulators, with minimal modifications. PMID:24586468

  7. Influence of both angle and position error of pentaprism on accuracy of pentaprism scanning system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Kun; Han, Sen; Zhang, Qiyuan; Wu, Quanying

    2014-11-01

    Pentaprism scanning system has been widely used in the measurement of large flat and wavefront, based on its property that the deviated beam will have no motion in the pitch direction. But the manufacturing and position errors of pentaprisms will bring error to the measurement and so a good error analysis method is indispensable. In this paper, we propose a new method of building mathematic models of pentaprism and through which the size and angle errors of a pentaprism can be put into the model as parameters. 4 size parameters are selected to determine the size and 11 angle parameters are selected to determine the angles of a pentaprism. Yaw, Roll and Pitch are used to describe the position error of a pentaprism and an autocollimator. A pentaprism scanning system of wavefront test is simulated by ray tracing using matlab. We design a method of separating the constant from the measurement results which will improve the measurement accuracy and analyze the system error by Monte Carlo method. This method is simple, rapid, accurate and convenient for computer programming.

  8. Early prediction of eruption site using lightning location data: Estimates of accuracy during past eruptions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nína Petersen, Guðrún; Arason, Þórður; Bjornsson, Halldór

    2013-04-01

    Eruption of subglacial volcanoes may lead to catastrophic floods and therefore early determination of the exact eruption site may be critical to civil protection evacuation plans. Poor visibility due to weather or darkness often inhibit positive identification of exact eruption location for many hours. However, because of the proximity and abundance of water in powerful subglacial volcanic eruptions, they are probably always accompanied by early lightning activity in the volcanic column. Lightning location systems, designed for weather thunderstorm monitoring, based on remote detection of electromagnetic waves from lightning, can provide valuable real-time information on location of eruption site. Important aspect of such remote detection is its independence of weather, apart from thunderstorms close to the volcano. Individual lightning strikes can be 5-10 km in length and are sometimes tilted and to the side of the volcanic column. This adds to the lightning location uncertainty, which is often a few km. Furthermore, the volcanic column may be swayed by the local wind to one side. Therefore, location of a single lightning can be misleading but by calculating average location of many lightning strikes and applying wind correction a more accurate eruption site location can be obtained. In an effort to assess the expected accuracy, the average lightning locations during the past five volcanic eruptions in Iceland (1998-2011) were compared to the exact site of the eruption vent. Simultaneous weather thunderstorms might have complicated this analysis, but there were no signs of ordinary thunderstorms in Iceland during these eruptions. To identify a suitable wind correction, the vector wind at the 500 hPa pressure level (5-6 km altitude) was compared to mean lightning locations during the eruptions. The essential elements of a system, which predicts the eruption site during the first hour(s) of an eruption, will be described.

  9. Predicting quantitative traits from genome and phenome with near perfect accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Märtens, Kaspar; Hallin, Johan; Warringer, Jonas; Liti, Gianni; Parts, Leopold

    2016-01-01

    In spite of decades of linkage and association studies and its potential impact on human health, reliable prediction of an individual's risk for heritable disease remains difficult. Large numbers of mapped loci do not explain substantial fractions of heritable variation, leaving an open question of whether accurate complex trait predictions can be achieved in practice. Here, we use a genome sequenced population of ∼7,000 yeast strains of high but varying relatedness, and predict growth traits from family information, effects of segregating genetic variants and growth in other environments with an average coefficient of determination R2 of 0.91. This accuracy exceeds narrow-sense heritability, approaches limits imposed by measurement repeatability and is higher than achieved with a single assay in the laboratory. Our results prove that very accurate prediction of complex traits is possible, and suggest that additional data from families rather than reference cohorts may be more useful for this purpose. PMID:27160605

  10. Influence of Yield Condition on the Accuracy of Earing Prediction for Steel Sheets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gösling, Marco

    2016-08-01

    This paper is dealing with the material modelling of steel sheets and is focused on the input parameters for a correct earing prediction. The cause of earing is the anisotropy of the rolled sheet which is usually modelled by a yield criterion. In a first study earing predictions with the Hill’48 yield criterion and with the Barlat’2000 yield criterion are conducted for different steel grades between 200 and 800 MPa yield strength. A comparison of the results shows that the Barlat’2000 yield criterion leads in almost all cases to a better earing prediction. In a second study the measurements for the Barlat’2000 law were analysed, to find the main parameter influencing the accuracy in earing prediction. The results of this study show that it is not affected by the biaxial measurements, but by the yield strength in 45° regarding to rolling direction.

  11. Accuracy of Implant Position Transfer and Surface Detail Reproduction with Different Impression Materials and Techniques

    PubMed Central

    Alikhasi, Marzieh; Siadat, Hakimeh; Kharazifard, Mohammad Javad

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of implant position transfer and surface detail reproduction using two impression techniques and materials. Materials and Methods: A metal model with two implants and three grooves of 0.25, 0.50 and 0.75 mm in depth on the flat superior surface of a die was fabricated. Ten regular-body polyether (PE) and 10 regular-body polyvinyl siloxane (PVS) impressions with square and conical transfer copings using open tray and closed tray techniques were made for each group. Impressions were poured with type IV stone, and linear and angular displacements of the replica heads were evaluated using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM). Also, accurate reproduction of the grooves was evaluated by a video measuring machine (VMM). These measurements were compared with the measurements calculated on the reference model that served as control, and the data were analyzed with two-way ANOVA and t-test at P= 0.05. Results: There was less linear displacement for PVS and less angular displacement for PE in closed-tray technique, and less linear displacement for PE in open tray technique (P<0.001). Also, the open tray technique showed less angular displacement with the use of PVS impression material. Detail reproduction accuracy was the same in all the groups (P>0.05). Conclusion: The open tray technique was more accurate using PE, and also both closed tray and open tray techniques had acceptable results with the use of PVS. The choice of impression material and technique made no significant difference in surface detail reproduction. PMID:27252761

  12. Positive urgency predicts illegal drug use and risky sexual behavior.

    PubMed

    Zapolski, Tamika C B; Cyders, Melissa A; Smith, Gregory T

    2009-06-01

    There are several different personality traits that dispose individuals to engage in rash action. One such trait is positive urgency: the tendency to act rashly when experiencing extremely positive affect. This trait may be relevant for college student risky behavior, because it appears that a great deal of college student risky behavior is undertaken during periods of intensely positive mood states. To test this possibility, the authors conducted a longitudinal study designed to predict increases in risky sexual behavior and illegal drug use over the course of the first year of college (n=407). In a well-fitting structural model, positive urgency predicted increases in illegal drug use and risky sexual behavior, even after controlling for time 1 (T1) involvement in both risky behaviors, biological sex, and T1 scores on four other personality dispositions to rash action. The authors discuss the theoretical and practical implications of this finding. PMID:19586152

  13. Accuracy of positioning and irradiation targeting for multiple targets in intracranial image-guided radiation therapy: a phantom study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tominaga, Hirofumi; Araki, Fujio; Shimohigashi, Yoshinobu; Ishihara, Terunobu; Kawasaki, Keiichi; Kanetake, Nagisa; Sakata, Junichi; Iwashita, Yuki

    2014-12-01

    This study investigated the accuracy of positioning and irradiation targeting for multiple off-isocenter targets in intracranial image-guided radiation therapy (IGRT). A phantom with nine circular targets was created to evaluate both accuracies. First, the central point of the isocenter target was positioned with a combination of an ExacTrac x-ray (ETX) and a 6D couch. The positioning accuracy was determined from the deviations of coordinates of the central point in each target obtained from the kV-cone beam computed tomography (kV-CBCT) for IGRT and the planning CT. Similarly, the irradiation targeting accuracy was evaluated from the deviations of the coordinates between the central point of each target and the central point of each multi-leaf collimator (MLC) field for multiple targets. Secondly, the 6D couch was intentionally rotated together with both roll and pitch angles of 0.5° and 1° at the isocenter and similarly the deviations were evaluated. The positioning accuracy for all targets was less than 1 mm after 6D positioning corrections. The irradiation targeting accuracy was up to 1.3 mm in the anteroposterior (AP) direction for a target 87 mm away from isocenter. For the 6D couch rotations with both roll and pitch angles of 0.5° and 1°, the positioning accuracy was up to 1.0 mm and 2.3 mm in the AP direction for the target 87 mm away from the isocenter, respectively. The irradiation targeting accuracy was up to 2.1 mm and 2.6 mm in the AP direction for the target 87 mm away from the isocenter, respectively. The off-isocenter irradiation targeting accuracy became worse than the positioning accuracy. Both off-isocenter accuracies worsened in proportion to rotation angles and the distance from the isocenter to the targets. It is necessary to examine the set-up margin for off-isocenter multiple targets at each institution because irradiation targeting accuracy is peculiar to the linac machine.

  14. Unsupervised HLA Peptidome Deconvolution Improves Ligand Prediction Accuracy and Predicts Cooperative Effects in Peptide-HLA Interactions.

    PubMed

    Bassani-Sternberg, Michal; Gfeller, David

    2016-09-15

    Ag presentation on HLA molecules plays a central role in infectious diseases and tumor immunology. To date, large-scale identification of (neo-)Ags from DNA sequencing data has mainly relied on predictions. In parallel, mass spectrometry analysis of HLA peptidome is increasingly performed to directly detect peptides presented on HLA molecules. In this study, we use a novel unsupervised approach to assign mass spectrometry-based HLA peptidomics data to their cognate HLA molecules. We show that incorporation of deconvoluted HLA peptidomics data in ligand prediction algorithms can improve their accuracy for HLA alleles with few ligands in existing databases. The results of our computational analysis of large datasets of naturally processed HLA peptides, together with experimental validation and protein structure analysis, further reveal how HLA-binding motifs change with peptide length and predict new cooperative effects between distant residues in HLA-B07:02 ligands. PMID:27511729

  15. Unsupervised HLA Peptidome Deconvolution Improves Ligand Prediction Accuracy and Predicts Cooperative Effects in Peptide-HLA Interactions.

    PubMed

    Bassani-Sternberg, Michal; Gfeller, David

    2016-09-15

    Ag presentation on HLA molecules plays a central role in infectious diseases and tumor immunology. To date, large-scale identification of (neo-)Ags from DNA sequencing data has mainly relied on predictions. In parallel, mass spectrometry analysis of HLA peptidome is increasingly performed to directly detect peptides presented on HLA molecules. In this study, we use a novel unsupervised approach to assign mass spectrometry-based HLA peptidomics data to their cognate HLA molecules. We show that incorporation of deconvoluted HLA peptidomics data in ligand prediction algorithms can improve their accuracy for HLA alleles with few ligands in existing databases. The results of our computational analysis of large datasets of naturally processed HLA peptides, together with experimental validation and protein structure analysis, further reveal how HLA-binding motifs change with peptide length and predict new cooperative effects between distant residues in HLA-B07:02 ligands.

  16. Assessing the impacts of precipitation bias on distributed hydrologic model calibration and prediction accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Looper, Jonathan P.; Vieux, Baxter E.; Moreno, Maria A.

    2012-02-01

    SummaryPhysics-based distributed (PBD) hydrologic models predict runoff throughout a basin using the laws of conservation of mass and momentum, and benefit from more accurate and representative precipitation input. V flo™ is a gridded distributed hydrologic model that predicts runoff and continuously updates soil moisture. As a participating model in the second Distributed Model Intercomparison Project (DMIP2), V flo™ is applied to the Illinois and Blue River basins in Oklahoma. Model parameters are derived from geospatial data for initial setup, and then adjusted to reproduce the observed flow under continuous time-series simulations and on an event basis. Simulation results demonstrate that certain runoff events are governed by saturation excess processes, while in others, infiltration-rate excess processes dominate. Streamflow prediction accuracy is enhanced when multi-sensor precipitation estimates (MPE) are bias corrected through re-analysis of the MPE provided in the DMIP2 experiment, resulting in gauge-corrected precipitation estimates (GCPE). Model calibration identified a set of parameters that minimized objective functions for errors in runoff volume and instantaneous discharge. Simulated streamflow for the Blue and Illinois River basins, have Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients between 0.61 and 0.68, respectively, for the 1996-2002 period using GCPE. The streamflow prediction accuracy improves by 74% in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency when GCPE is used during the calibration period. Without model calibration, excellent agreement between hourly simulated and observed discharge is obtained for the Illinois, whereas in the Blue River, adjustment of parameters affecting both saturation and infiltration-rate excess processes were necessary. During the 1996-2002 period, GCPE input was more important than model calibration for the Blue River, while model calibration proved more important for the Illinois River. During the verification period (2002

  17. Prediction of soil properties using imaging spectroscopy: Considering fractional vegetation cover to improve accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Franceschini, M. H. D.; Demattê, J. A. M.; da Silva Terra, F.; Vicente, L. E.; Bartholomeus, H.; de Souza Filho, C. R.

    2015-06-01

    Spectroscopic techniques have become attractive to assess soil properties because they are fast, require little labor and may reduce the amount of laboratory waste produced when compared to conventional methods. Imaging spectroscopy (IS) can have further advantages compared to laboratory or field proximal spectroscopic approaches such as providing spatially continuous information with a high density. However, the accuracy of IS derived predictions decreases when the spectral mixture of soil with other targets occurs. This paper evaluates the use of spectral data obtained by an airborne hyperspectral sensor (ProSpecTIR-VS - Aisa dual sensor) for prediction of physical and chemical properties of Brazilian highly weathered soils (i.e., Oxisols). A methodology to assess the soil spectral mixture is adapted and a progressive spectral dataset selection procedure, based on bare soil fractional cover, is proposed and tested. Satisfactory performances are obtained specially for the quantification of clay, sand and CEC using airborne sensor data (R2 of 0.77, 0.79 and 0.54; RPD of 2.14, 2.22 and 1.50, respectively), after spectral data selection is performed; although results obtained for laboratory data are more accurate (R2 of 0.92, 0.85 and 0.75; RPD of 3.52, 2.62 and 2.04, for clay, sand and CEC, respectively). Most importantly, predictions based on airborne-derived spectra for which the bare soil fractional cover is not taken into account show considerable lower accuracy, for example for clay, sand and CEC (RPD of 1.52, 1.64 and 1.16, respectively). Therefore, hyperspectral remotely sensed data can be used to predict topsoil properties of highly weathered soils, although spectral mixture of bare soil with vegetation must be considered in order to achieve an improved prediction accuracy.

  18. Reducing patient posture variability using the predicted couch position

    SciTech Connect

    Kruijf, Wilhelmus J.M. de Martens, Rob J.W.

    2015-10-01

    A method is presented in which the couch position is predicted before the treatment instead of obtaining a reference position at the first treatment fraction. This prevents systematic differences in patient posture between preparation and treatment. In literature, only limited data are available on couch positioning. We position our patients at the planned couch position, allowing a small difference between skin marks and lasers, followed by online imaging. For a 3-month period, our standard deviations (mm) in couch position in the vertical, longitudinal, and lateral directions were head and neck—1.6, 2.8, and 2.5; thorax—2.9, 5.5, and 4.5; breast—3.0, 4.1, and 4.0; and pelvis—3.5, 4.0, and 4.7, respectively. We have improved the reproducibility of patient posture in our institute by using the predicted couch position. Our data may serve as a reference for other institutes because the couch position variation is less than that published in literature.

  19. Accuracy of genomic prediction in switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) improved by accounting for linkage disequilibrium

    DOE PAGES

    Ramstein, Guillaume P.; Evans, Joseph; Kaeppler, Shawn M.; Mitchell, Robert B.; Vogel, Kenneth P.; Buell, C. Robin; Casler, Michael D.

    2016-02-11

    Switchgrass is a relatively high-yielding and environmentally sustainable biomass crop, but further genetic gains in biomass yield must be achieved to make it an economically viable bioenergy feedstock. Genomic selection (GS) is an attractive technology to generate rapid genetic gains in switchgrass, and meet the goals of a substantial displacement of petroleum use with biofuels in the near future. In this study, we empirically assessed prediction procedures for genomic selection in two different populations, consisting of 137 and 110 half-sib families of switchgrass, tested in two locations in the United States for three agronomic traits: dry matter yield, plant height,more » and heading date. Marker data were produced for the families’ parents by exome capture sequencing, generating up to 141,030 polymorphic markers with available genomic-location and annotation information. We evaluated prediction procedures that varied not only by learning schemes and prediction models, but also by the way the data were preprocessed to account for redundancy in marker information. More complex genomic prediction procedures were generally not significantly more accurate than the simplest procedure, likely due to limited population sizes. Nevertheless, a highly significant gain in prediction accuracy was achieved by transforming the marker data through a marker correlation matrix. Our results suggest that marker-data transformations and, more generally, the account of linkage disequilibrium among markers, offer valuable opportunities for improving prediction procedures in GS. Furthermore, some of the achieved prediction accuracies should motivate implementation of GS in switchgrass breeding programs.« less

  20. Evaluation of two methods of predicting MLC leaf positions using EPID measurements

    SciTech Connect

    Parent, Laure; Seco, Joao; Evans, Phil M.; Dance, David R.; Fielding, Andrew

    2006-09-15

    In intensity modulated radiation treatments (IMRT), the position of the field edges and the modulation within the beam are often achieved with a multileaf collimator (MLC). During the MLC calibration process, due to the finite accuracy of leaf position measurements, a systematic error may be introduced to leaf positions. Thereafter leaf positions of the MLC depend on the systematic error introduced on each leaf during MLC calibration and on the accuracy of the leaf position control system (random errors). This study presents and evaluates two methods to predict the systematic errors on the leaf positions introduced during the MLC calibration. The two presented methods are based on a series of electronic portal imaging device (EPID) measurements. A comparison with film measurements showed that the EPID could be used to measure leaf positions without introducing any bias. The first method, referred to as the 'central leaf method', is based on the method currently used at this center for MLC leaf calibration. It mimics the manner in which leaf calibration parameters are specified in the MLC control system and consequently is also used by other centers. The second method, a new method proposed by the authors and referred to as the ''individual leaf method,'' involves the measurement of two positions for each leaf (-5 and +15 cm) and the interpolation and extrapolation from these two points to any other given position. The central leaf method and the individual leaf method predicted leaf positions at prescribed positions of -11, 0, 5, and 10 cm within 2.3 and 1.0 mm, respectively, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.3 and 0.2 mm, respectively. The individual leaf method provided a better prediction of the leaf positions than the central leaf method. Reproducibility tests for leaf positions of -5 and +15 cm were performed. The reproducibility was within 0.4 mm on the same day and 0.4 mm six weeks later (1 SD). Measurements at gantry angles of 0 deg., 90 deg., and 270 deg

  1. Improving Neural Network Prediction Accuracy for PM10 Individual Air Quality Index Pollution Levels.

    PubMed

    Feng, Qi; Wu, Shengjun; Du, Yun; Xue, Huaiping; Xiao, Fei; Ban, Xuan; Li, Xiaodong

    2013-12-01

    Fugitive dust deriving from construction sites is a serious local source of particulate matter (PM) that leads to air pollution in cities undergoing rapid urbanization in China. In spite of this fact, no study has yet been published relating to prediction of high levels of PM with diameters <10 μm (PM10) as adjudicated by the Individual Air Quality Index (IAQI) on fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. To combat this problem, the Construction Influence Index (Ci) is introduced in this article to improve forecasting models based on three neural network models (multilayer perceptron, Elman, and support vector machine) in predicting daily PM10 IAQI one day in advance. To obtain acceptable forecasting accuracy, measured time series data were decomposed into wavelet representations and wavelet coefficients were predicted. Effectiveness of these forecasters were tested using a time series recorded between January 1, 2005, and December 31, 2011, at six monitoring stations situated within the urban area of the city of Wuhan, China. Experimental trials showed that the improved models provided low root mean square error values and mean absolute error values in comparison to the original models. In addition, these improved models resulted in higher values of coefficients of determination and AHPC (the accuracy rate of high PM10 IAQI caused by nearby construction activity) compared to the original models when predicting high PM10 IAQI levels attributable to fugitive dust from nearby construction sites. PMID:24381481

  2. Effects of insertion speed and trocar stiffness on the accuracy of needle position for brachytherapy

    SciTech Connect

    McGill, Carl S.; Schwartz, Jonathon A.; Moore, Jason Z.; McLaughlin, Patrick W.; Shih, Albert J.

    2012-04-15

    Purpose: In prostate brachytherapy, accurate positioning of the needle tip to place radioactive seeds at its target site is critical for successful radiation treatment. During the procedure, needle deflection leads to seed misplacement and suboptimal radiation dose to cancerous cells. In practice, radiation oncologists commonly use high-speed hand needle insertion to minimize displacement of the prostate as well as the needle deflection. Effects of speed during needle insertion and stiffness of trocar (a solid rod inside the hollow cannula) on needle deflection are studied. Methods: Needle insertion experiments into phantom were performed using a 2{sup 2} factorial design (2 parameters at 2 levels), with each condition having replicates. Analysis of the deflection data included calculating the average, standard deviation, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) to find significant single and two-way interaction factors. Results: The stiffer tungsten carbide trocar is effective in reducing the average and standard deviation of needle deflection. The fast insertion speed together with the stiffer trocar generated the smallest average and standard deviation for needle deflection for almost all cases. Conclusions: The combination of stiff tungsten carbide trocar and fast needle insertion speed are important to decreasing needle deflection. The knowledge gained from this study can be used to improve the accuracy of needle insertion during brachytherapy procedures.

  3. Assessment of Completeness and Positional Accuracy of Linear Features in Volunteered Geographic Information (vgi)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eshghi, M.; Alesheikh, A. A.

    2015-12-01

    Recent advances in spatial data collection technologies and online services dramatically increase the contribution of ordinary people to produce, share, and use geographic information. Collecting spatial data as well as disseminating them on the internet by citizens has led to a huge source of spatial data termed as Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) by Mike Goodchild. Although, VGI has produced previously unavailable data assets, and enriched existing ones. But its quality can be highly variable and challengeable. This presents several challenges to potential end users who are concerned about the validation and the quality assurance of the data which are collected. Almost, all the existing researches are based on how to find accurate VGI data from existing VGI data which consist of a) comparing the VGI data with the accurate official data, or b) in cases that there is no access to correct data; therefore, looking for an alternative way to determine the quality of VGI data is essential, and so forth. In this paper it has been attempt to develop a useful method to reach this goal. In this process, the positional accuracy of linear feature of Iran, Tehran OSM data have been analyzed.

  4. Predicting Positive Outcomes for Students with Emotional Disturbance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nickerson, Amanda B.; Brosof, Amy M.; Shapiro, Valerie B.

    2004-01-01

    This longitudinal study assessed changes in skills for students with emotional disturbance (ED) over a one-year time period in a private special education school and examined variables that predicted positive outcomes for these students. At Time 1, teachers rated 84 students with ED using standardized behavior rating scales to assess problem…

  5. Involuntary attention enhances identification accuracy for unmasked low contrast letters using non-predictive peripheral cues.

    PubMed

    Pack, Weston; Carney, Thom; Klein, Stanley A

    2013-08-30

    There is controversy regarding whether or not involuntary attention improves response accuracy at a cued location when the cue is non-predictive and if these cueing effects are dependent on backward masking. Various perceptual and decisional mechanisms of performance enhancement have been proposed, such as signal enhancement, noise reduction, spatial uncertainty reduction, and decisional processes. Herein we review a recent report of mask-dependent accuracy improvements with low contrast stimuli and demonstrate that the experiments contained stimulus artifacts whereby the cue impaired perception of low contrast stimuli, leading to an absence of improved response accuracy with unmasked stimuli. Our experiments corrected these artifacts by implementing an isoluminant cue and increasing its distance relative to the targets. The results demonstrate that cueing effects are robust for unmasked stimuli presented in the periphery, resolving some of the controversy concerning cueing enhancement effects from involuntary attention and mask dependency. Unmasked low contrast and/or short duration stimuli as implemented in these experiments may have a short enough iconic decay that the visual system functions similarly as if a mask were present leading to improved accuracy with a valid cue.

  6. Empathic accuracy for happiness in the daily lives of older couples: Fluid cognitive performance predicts pattern accuracy among men.

    PubMed

    Hülür, Gizem; Hoppmann, Christiane A; Rauers, Antje; Schade, Hannah; Ram, Nilam; Gerstorf, Denis

    2016-08-01

    Correctly identifying other's emotional states is a central cognitive component of empathy. We examined the role of fluid cognitive performance for empathic accuracy for happiness in the daily lives of 86 older couples (mean relationship length = 45 years; mean age = 75 years) on up to 42 occasions over 7 consecutive days. Men performing better on the Digit Symbol test were more accurate in identifying ups and downs of their partner's happiness. A similar association was not found for women. We discuss the potential role of fluid cognitive performance and other individual, partner, and situation characteristics for empathic accuracy. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:27362351

  7. Positive interpretation bias predicts well-being in medical interns

    PubMed Central

    Kleim, Birgit; Thörn, Hanna A.; Ehlert, Ulrike

    2014-01-01

    Cognitive theories of emotion posit that affective responses may be shaped by how individuals interpret emotion-eliciting situations. This study tested whether individual differences in interpretation bias (i.e., interpreting ambiguous scenarios in a more negative or positive manner) independently predict trait resilience and depression in medical interns. Interpretation bias and trait resilience scores were assessed in 47 interns prior to their first internship. Depressive symptoms were assessed twice during internship. Nearly half of the sample (42%) scored above the cut-off for mild depressive symptoms during internship, a significant rise compared to the initial assessment. Those with a more positive interpretation bias had higher trait resilience (β = 0.44, p = 0.004) and a 6-fold decreased depressive symptom risk during internship (OR = 6.41, p = 0.027). The predictive power of a positive interpretation bias for decreased depression symptoms held over and above initial depressive symptoms, demographics and trait reappraisal. Assessing positive interpretation bias may have practical utility for predicting future well-being in at risk-populations. PMID:25009521

  8. Unexpected but Incidental Positive Outcomes Predict Real-World Gambling.

    PubMed

    Otto, A Ross; Fleming, Stephen M; Glimcher, Paul W

    2016-03-01

    Positive mood can affect a person's tendency to gamble, possibly because positive mood fosters unrealistic optimism. At the same time, unexpected positive outcomes, often called prediction errors, influence mood. However, a linkage between positive prediction errors-the difference between expected and obtained outcomes-and consequent risk taking has yet to be demonstrated. Using a large data set of New York City lottery gambling and a model inspired by computational accounts of reward learning, we found that people gamble more when incidental outcomes in the environment (e.g., local sporting events and sunshine) are better than expected. When local sports teams performed better than expected, or a sunny day followed a streak of cloudy days, residents gambled more. The observed relationship between prediction errors and gambling was ubiquitous across the city's socioeconomically diverse neighborhoods and was specific to sports and weather events occurring locally in New York City. Our results suggest that unexpected but incidental positive outcomes influence risk taking. PMID:26796614

  9. Accuracy of some simple models for predicting particulate interception and retention in agricultural systems

    SciTech Connect

    Pinder, J.E. III; McLeod, K.W.; Adriano, D.C.

    1989-04-01

    The accuracy of three radionuclide transfer models for predicting the interception and retention of airborne particles by agricultural crops was tested using Pu-bearing aerosols released to the atmosphere from nuclear fuel facilities on the U.S. Department of Energy's Savannah River Plant, near Aiken, SC. The models evaluated were: (1) NRC, the model defined in U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Guide 1.109; (2) FOOD, a model similar to the NRC model that also predicts concentrations in grains; and (3) AGNS, a model developed from the NRC model for the southeastern United States. Plutonium concentrations in vegetation and grain were predicted from measured deposition rates and compared to concentrations observed in the field. Crops included wheat, soybeans, corn and cabbage. Although predictions of the three models differed by less than a factor of 4, they showed different abilities to predict concentrations observed in the field. The NRC and FOOD models consistently underpredicted the observed Pu concentrations for vegetation. The AGNS model was a more accurate predictor of Pu concentrations for vegetation. Both the FOOD and AGNS models accurately predicted the Pu concentrations for grains.

  10. Enhancing Predictive Accuracy of Cardiac Autonomic Neuropathy Using Blood Biochemistry Features and Iterative Multitier Ensembles.

    PubMed

    Abawajy, Jemal; Kelarev, Andrei; Chowdhury, Morshed U; Jelinek, Herbert F

    2016-01-01

    Blood biochemistry attributes form an important class of tests, routinely collected several times per year for many patients with diabetes. The objective of this study is to investigate the role of blood biochemistry for improving the predictive accuracy of the diagnosis of cardiac autonomic neuropathy (CAN) progression. Blood biochemistry contributes to CAN, and so it is a causative factor that can provide additional power for the diagnosis of CAN especially in the absence of a complete set of Ewing tests. We introduce automated iterative multitier ensembles (AIME) and investigate their performance in comparison to base classifiers and standard ensemble classifiers for blood biochemistry attributes. AIME incorporate diverse ensembles into several tiers simultaneously and combine them into one automatically generated integrated system so that one ensemble acts as an integral part of another ensemble. We carried out extensive experimental analysis using large datasets from the diabetes screening research initiative (DiScRi) project. The results of our experiments show that several blood biochemistry attributes can be used to supplement the Ewing battery for the detection of CAN in situations where one or more of the Ewing tests cannot be completed because of the individual difficulties faced by each patient in performing the tests. The results show that AIME provide higher accuracy as a multitier CAN classification paradigm. The best predictive accuracy of 99.57% has been obtained by the AIME combining decorate on top tier with bagging on middle tier based on random forest. Practitioners can use these findings to increase the accuracy of CAN diagnosis.

  11. Consonant Production Accuracy in Young Cochlear Implant Recipients: Developmental Sound Classes and Word Position Effects

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ertmer, David J.; Kloiber, Diana True; Jung, Jongmin; Kirleis, Katie Connell; Bradford, Denise

    2012-01-01

    Purpose: To compare young cochlear implant (CI) recipients' consonant production accuracy with that of age- and gender-matched peers who were typically developing (TD). In addition to examining initial consonants, the authors compiled new data regarding the accuracy of final consonants and the order of consonant acquisition. Methods: Eleven young…

  12. Knowing right from wrong in mental arithmetic judgments: calibration of confidence predicts the development of accuracy.

    PubMed

    Rinne, Luke F; Mazzocco, Michèle M M

    2014-01-01

    Does knowing when mental arithmetic judgments are right--and when they are wrong--lead to more accurate judgments over time? We hypothesize that the successful detection of errors (and avoidance of false alarms) may contribute to the development of mental arithmetic performance. Insight into error detection abilities can be gained by examining the "calibration" of mental arithmetic judgments-that is, the alignment between confidence in judgments and the accuracy of those judgments. Calibration may be viewed as a measure of metacognitive monitoring ability. We conducted a developmental longitudinal investigation of the relationship between the calibration of children's mental arithmetic judgments and their performance on a mental arithmetic task. Annually between Grades 5 and 8, children completed a problem verification task in which they rapidly judged the accuracy of arithmetic expressions (e.g., 25 + 50 = 75) and rated their confidence in each judgment. Results showed that calibration was strongly related to concurrent mental arithmetic performance, that calibration continued to develop even as mental arithmetic accuracy approached ceiling, that poor calibration distinguished children with mathematics learning disability from both low and typically achieving children, and that better calibration in Grade 5 predicted larger gains in mental arithmetic accuracy between Grades 5 and 8. We propose that good calibration supports the implementation of cognitive control, leading to long-term improvement in mental arithmetic accuracy. Because mental arithmetic "fluency" is critical for higher-level mathematics competence, calibration of confidence in mental arithmetic judgments may represent a novel and important developmental predictor of future mathematics performance. PMID:24988539

  13. Knowing Right From Wrong In Mental Arithmetic Judgments: Calibration Of Confidence Predicts The Development Of Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Rinne, Luke F.; Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.

    2014-01-01

    Does knowing when mental arithmetic judgments are right—and when they are wrong—lead to more accurate judgments over time? We hypothesize that the successful detection of errors (and avoidance of false alarms) may contribute to the development of mental arithmetic performance. Insight into error detection abilities can be gained by examining the “calibration” of mental arithmetic judgments—that is, the alignment between confidence in judgments and the accuracy of those judgments. Calibration may be viewed as a measure of metacognitive monitoring ability. We conducted a developmental longitudinal investigation of the relationship between the calibration of children's mental arithmetic judgments and their performance on a mental arithmetic task. Annually between Grades 5 and 8, children completed a problem verification task in which they rapidly judged the accuracy of arithmetic expressions (e.g., 25+50 = 75) and rated their confidence in each judgment. Results showed that calibration was strongly related to concurrent mental arithmetic performance, that calibration continued to develop even as mental arithmetic accuracy approached ceiling, that poor calibration distinguished children with mathematics learning disability from both low and typically achieving children, and that better calibration in Grade 5 predicted larger gains in mental arithmetic accuracy between Grades 5 and 8. We propose that good calibration supports the implementation of cognitive control, leading to long-term improvement in mental arithmetic accuracy. Because mental arithmetic “fluency” is critical for higher-level mathematics competence, calibration of confidence in mental arithmetic judgments may represent a novel and important developmental predictor of future mathematics performance. PMID:24988539

  14. Positive-Unlabeled Learning for Pupylation Sites Prediction.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Ming; Cao, Jun-Zhe

    2016-01-01

    Pupylation plays a key role in regulating various protein functions as a crucial posttranslational modification of prokaryotes. In order to understand the molecular mechanism of pupylation, it is important to identify pupylation substrates and sites accurately. Several computational methods have been developed to identify pupylation sites because the traditional experimental methods are time-consuming and labor-sensitive. With the existing computational methods, the experimentally annotated pupylation sites are used as the positive training set and the remaining nonannotated lysine residues as the negative training set to build classifiers to predict new pupylation sites from the unknown proteins. However, the remaining nonannotated lysine residues may contain pupylation sites which have not been experimentally validated yet. Unlike previous methods, in this study, the experimentally annotated pupylation sites were used as the positive training set whereas the remaining nonannotated lysine residues were used as the unlabeled training set. A novel method named PUL-PUP was proposed to predict pupylation sites by using positive-unlabeled learning technique. Our experimental results indicated that PUL-PUP outperforms the other methods significantly for the prediction of pupylation sites. As an application, PUL-PUP was also used to predict the most likely pupylation sites in nonannotated lysine sites. PMID:27579315

  15. Positive-Unlabeled Learning for Pupylation Sites Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Jun-Zhe

    2016-01-01

    Pupylation plays a key role in regulating various protein functions as a crucial posttranslational modification of prokaryotes. In order to understand the molecular mechanism of pupylation, it is important to identify pupylation substrates and sites accurately. Several computational methods have been developed to identify pupylation sites because the traditional experimental methods are time-consuming and labor-sensitive. With the existing computational methods, the experimentally annotated pupylation sites are used as the positive training set and the remaining nonannotated lysine residues as the negative training set to build classifiers to predict new pupylation sites from the unknown proteins. However, the remaining nonannotated lysine residues may contain pupylation sites which have not been experimentally validated yet. Unlike previous methods, in this study, the experimentally annotated pupylation sites were used as the positive training set whereas the remaining nonannotated lysine residues were used as the unlabeled training set. A novel method named PUL-PUP was proposed to predict pupylation sites by using positive-unlabeled learning technique. Our experimental results indicated that PUL-PUP outperforms the other methods significantly for the prediction of pupylation sites. As an application, PUL-PUP was also used to predict the most likely pupylation sites in nonannotated lysine sites. PMID:27579315

  16. Accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients

    PubMed Central

    Martinez, Bruno Prata; Gomes, Isabela Barboza; de Oliveira, Carolina Santana; Ramos, Isis Resende; Rocha, Mônica Diniz Marques; Júnior, Luiz Alberto Forgiarini; Camelier, Fernanda Warken Rosa; Camelier, Aquiles Assunção

    2015-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The ability of the Timed Up and Go test to predict sarcopenia has not been evaluated previously. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients. METHODS: This cross-sectional study analyzed 68 elderly patients (≥60 years of age) in a private hospital in the city of Salvador-BA, Brazil, between the 1st and 5th day of hospitalization. The predictive variable was the Timed Up and Go test score, and the outcome of interest was the presence of sarcopenia (reduced muscle mass associated with a reduction in handgrip strength and/or weak physical performance in a 6-m gait-speed test). After the descriptive data analyses, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of a test using the predictive variable to predict the presence of sarcopenia were calculated. RESULTS: In total, 68 elderly individuals, with a mean age 70.4±7.7 years, were evaluated. The subjects had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 5.35±1.97. Most (64.7%) of the subjects had a clinical admission profile; the main reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular disorders (22.1%), pneumonia (19.1%) and abdominal disorders (10.2%). The frequency of sarcopenia in the sample was 22.1%, and the mean length of time spent performing the Timed Up and Go test was 10.02±5.38 s. A time longer than or equal to a cutoff of 10.85 s on the Timed Up and Go test predicted sarcopenia with a sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 88.7%. The accuracy of this cutoff for the Timed Up and Go test was good (0.80; IC=0.66-0.94; p=0.002). CONCLUSION: The Timed Up and Go test was shown to be a predictor of sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients. PMID:26039955

  17. The accuracy of body mass prediction for elderly specimens: Implications for paleoanthropology and legal medicine.

    PubMed

    Chevalier, Tony; Lefèvre, Philippe; Clarys, Jan Pieter; Beauthier, Jean-Pol

    2016-10-01

    Different practices in paleoanthropology and legal medicine raise questions concerning the robustness of body mass (BM) prediction. Integrating personal identification from body mass estimation with skeleton is not a classic approach in legal medicine. The originality of our study is the use of an elderly sample in order to push prediction methods to their limits and to discuss about implications in paleoanthropology and legal medicine. The aim is to observe the accuracy of BM prediction in relation to the body mass index (BMI, index of classification) using five femoral head (FH) methods and one shaft (FSH) method. The sample is composed of 41 dry femurs obtained from dissection where age (c. 82 years) and gender are known, and weight (c. 59.5 kg) and height are measured upon admission to the body leg service. We show that the estimation of the mean BM of the elderly sample is not significantly different to the real mean BM when the appropriate formula is used for the femoral head diameter. In fact, the best prediction is obtained with the McHenry formula (1992), which was based on a sample with an equivalent average mass to that of our sample. In comparison, external shaft diameters, which are known to be more influenced by mechanical stimuli than femoral head diameters, yield less satisfactory results with the McHenry formula (1992) for shaft diameters. Based on all the methods used and the distinctive selected sample, overestimation (always observed with the different femoral head methods) can be restricted to 1.1%. The observed overestimation with the shaft method can be restricted to 7%. However, the estimation of individual BM is much less reliable. The BMI has a strong impact on the accuracy of individual BM prediction, and is unquestionably more reliable for individuals with normal BMI (9.6% vs 16.7% for the best prediction error). In this case, the FH method is also the better predictive method but not if we integrate the total sample (i.e., the FSH

  18. The accuracy of body mass prediction for elderly specimens: Implications for paleoanthropology and legal medicine.

    PubMed

    Chevalier, Tony; Lefèvre, Philippe; Clarys, Jan Pieter; Beauthier, Jean-Pol

    2016-10-01

    Different practices in paleoanthropology and legal medicine raise questions concerning the robustness of body mass (BM) prediction. Integrating personal identification from body mass estimation with skeleton is not a classic approach in legal medicine. The originality of our study is the use of an elderly sample in order to push prediction methods to their limits and to discuss about implications in paleoanthropology and legal medicine. The aim is to observe the accuracy of BM prediction in relation to the body mass index (BMI, index of classification) using five femoral head (FH) methods and one shaft (FSH) method. The sample is composed of 41 dry femurs obtained from dissection where age (c. 82 years) and gender are known, and weight (c. 59.5 kg) and height are measured upon admission to the body leg service. We show that the estimation of the mean BM of the elderly sample is not significantly different to the real mean BM when the appropriate formula is used for the femoral head diameter. In fact, the best prediction is obtained with the McHenry formula (1992), which was based on a sample with an equivalent average mass to that of our sample. In comparison, external shaft diameters, which are known to be more influenced by mechanical stimuli than femoral head diameters, yield less satisfactory results with the McHenry formula (1992) for shaft diameters. Based on all the methods used and the distinctive selected sample, overestimation (always observed with the different femoral head methods) can be restricted to 1.1%. The observed overestimation with the shaft method can be restricted to 7%. However, the estimation of individual BM is much less reliable. The BMI has a strong impact on the accuracy of individual BM prediction, and is unquestionably more reliable for individuals with normal BMI (9.6% vs 16.7% for the best prediction error). In this case, the FH method is also the better predictive method but not if we integrate the total sample (i.e., the FSH

  19. Friends' knowledge of youth internalizing and externalizing adjustment: accuracy, bias, and the influences of gender, grade, positive friendship quality, and self-disclosure.

    PubMed

    Swenson, Lance P; Rose, Amanda J

    2009-08-01

    Some evidence suggests that close friends may be knowledgeable of youth's psychological adjustment. However, friends are understudied as reporters of adjustment. The current study examines associations between self- and friend-reports of internalizing and externalizing adjustment in a community sample of fifth-, eighth-, and eleventh-grade youth. The study extends prior work by considering the degree to which friends' reports of youth adjustment are accurate (i.e., predicted by youths' actual adjustment) versus biased (i.e., predicted by the friend reporters' own adjustment). Findings indicated stronger bias effects than accuracy effects, but the accuracy effects were significant for both internalizing and externalizing adjustment. Additionally, friends who perceived their relationships as high in positive quality, friends in relationships high in disclosure, and girls perceived youths' internalizing symptoms most accurately. Knowledge of externalizing adjustment was not influenced by gender, grade, relationship quality, or self-disclosure. Findings suggest that friends could play an important role in prevention efforts.

  20. Accuracy of different DFT formalisms for prediction of two-photon absorption properties of conjugated polymers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nayyar, Iffat; Mikhailov, Ivan; Masunov, Artem

    2010-03-01

    The importance of organic molecules with large two-photon absorption (2PA) is realized for deep-tissue fluorescence microscopy, photodynamic therapy, three-dimensional microfabrication and optical data storage. Computer predictions provide understanding of structure/activity relationships and assist in the rational design of polymer materials as an alternative to trial and error methods. In this contribution, we compare various density functional theory (DFT) formalisms to predict two-photon absorption spectra in a series of large donor-acceptor substituted conjugated molecules. We conclude that the accuracy of a posteriori Tamm-Dancoff approximation [1] is close to the exact results obtained in Coupled Electronic Oscillators formalism [2]. Adjusting fraction of exact exchange in XC functionals allow for improved agreement with experiment. [1] Mikhailov, I.A.; Tafur, S.; Masunov, A.E., Phys. Rev. A 77, 01250 (2008) [2] Masunov, A.M.; Tretiak, S., J. Phys. Chem. B 108, 899 (2004)

  1. Accuracy of binding mode prediction with a cascadic stochastic tunneling method.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Bernhard; Basili, Serena; Merlitz, Holger; Wenzel, Wolfgang

    2007-07-01

    We investigate the accuracy of the binding modes predicted for 83 complexes of the high-resolution subset of the ASTEX/CCDC receptor-ligand database using the atomistic FlexScreen approach with a simple forcefield-based scoring function. The median RMS deviation between experimental and predicted binding mode was just 0.83 A. Over 80% of the ligands dock within 2 A of the experimental binding mode, for 60 complexes the docking protocol locates the correct binding mode in all of ten independent simulations. Most docking failures arise because (a) the experimental structure clashed in our forcefield and is thus unattainable in the docking process or (b) because the ligand is stabilized by crystal water.

  2. Accuracy of binding mode prediction with a cascadic stochastic tunneling method.

    PubMed

    Fischer, Bernhard; Basili, Serena; Merlitz, Holger; Wenzel, Wolfgang

    2007-07-01

    We investigate the accuracy of the binding modes predicted for 83 complexes of the high-resolution subset of the ASTEX/CCDC receptor-ligand database using the atomistic FlexScreen approach with a simple forcefield-based scoring function. The median RMS deviation between experimental and predicted binding mode was just 0.83 A. Over 80% of the ligands dock within 2 A of the experimental binding mode, for 60 complexes the docking protocol locates the correct binding mode in all of ten independent simulations. Most docking failures arise because (a) the experimental structure clashed in our forcefield and is thus unattainable in the docking process or (b) because the ligand is stabilized by crystal water. PMID:17427957

  3. Accuracy of Life Tables in Predicting Overall Survival in Candidates for Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Walz, Jochen; Gallina, Andrea; Hutterer, Georg; Perrotte, Paul; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Graefen, Markus; McCormack, Michael; Benard, Francois; Valiquette, Luc; Saad, Fred; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.

    2007-09-01

    Purpose: To test the accuracy of life tables (LTs) in predicting survival in men treated with radiotherapy for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We selected the records of 3,176 patients treated with radiotherapy and who had no clinical evidence of disease relapse. Life table-derived life expectancy (LE) was defined for every individual using a population-specific LT. Age, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and LT-derived LE were then used as predictors of overall mortality in Cox regression models. Predictive accuracy (PA) was estimated with the Harrell's concordance index and was internally validated with 200 bootstrap resamples. Results: The actuarial median survival was 4.7 years (mean, 6.4 years). At radiotherapy, median age was 70.6 years, median CCI was 2, and median LT-derived LE was 12 years. All variables were statistically significant predictors of overall mortality (all p values <0.001). Age (PA, 60.2%), CCI (PA, 60.1%), and LT-derived LE (PA, 60.2%) were equally accurate. Finally, when age and CCI were combined (PA, 63.2%), both variables provided more accurate mortality predictions than either variable alone (all p values = 0.01). Conclusions: Life tables have a limited ability to predict LE in patients treated with radiotherapy for prostate cancer. We, therefore, recommend the use of multivariate prognostic models that integrate several variables, such as at least age and comorbidities, to estimate LE. This might help to improve LE estimation during prostate cancer treatment decision making.

  4. Functional Knowledge Transfer for High-accuracy Prediction of Under-studied Biological Processes

    PubMed Central

    Rowland, Jessica; Guan, Yuanfang; Bongo, Lars A.; Burdine, Rebecca D.; Troyanskaya, Olga G.

    2013-01-01

    A key challenge in genetics is identifying the functional roles of genes in pathways. Numerous functional genomics techniques (e.g. machine learning) that predict protein function have been developed to address this question. These methods generally build from existing annotations of genes to pathways and thus are often unable to identify additional genes participating in processes that are not already well studied. Many of these processes are well studied in some organism, but not necessarily in an investigator's organism of interest. Sequence-based search methods (e.g. BLAST) have been used to transfer such annotation information between organisms. We demonstrate that functional genomics can complement traditional sequence similarity to improve the transfer of gene annotations between organisms. Our method transfers annotations only when functionally appropriate as determined by genomic data and can be used with any prediction algorithm to combine transferred gene function knowledge with organism-specific high-throughput data to enable accurate function prediction. We show that diverse state-of-art machine learning algorithms leveraging functional knowledge transfer (FKT) dramatically improve their accuracy in predicting gene-pathway membership, particularly for processes with little experimental knowledge in an organism. We also show that our method compares favorably to annotation transfer by sequence similarity. Next, we deploy FKT with state-of-the-art SVM classifier to predict novel genes to 11,000 biological processes across six diverse organisms and expand the coverage of accurate function predictions to processes that are often ignored because of a dearth of annotated genes in an organism. Finally, we perform in vivo experimental investigation in Danio rerio and confirm the regulatory role of our top predicted novel gene, wnt5b, in leftward cell migration during heart development. FKT is immediately applicable to many bioinformatics techniques and will

  5. 3D combinational curves for accuracy and performance analysis of positive biometrics identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Yingzi; Chang, Chein-I.

    2008-06-01

    The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve has been widely used as an evaluation criterion to measure the accuracy of biometrics system. Unfortunately, such an ROC curve provides no indication of the optimum threshold and cost function. In this paper, two kinds of 3D combinational curves are proposed: the 3D combinational accuracy curve and the 3D combinational performance curve. The 3D combinational accuracy curve gives a balanced view of the relationships among FAR (false alarm rate), FRR (false rejection rate), threshold t, and Cost. Six 2D curves can be derived from the 3D combinational accuracy curve: the conventional 2D ROC curve, 2D curve of (FRR, t), 2D curve of (FAR, t), 2D curve of (FRR, Cost), 2D curve of (FAR, Cost), and 2D curve of ( t, Cost). The 3D combinational performance curve can be derived from the 3D combinational accuracy curve which can give a balanced view among Security, Convenience, threshold t, and Cost. The advantages of using the proposed 3D combinational curves are demonstrated by iris recognition systems where the experimental results show that the proposed 3D combinational curves can provide more comprehensive information of the system accuracy and performance.

  6. Accuracy of Igenity genomically estimated breeding values for predicting Australian Angus BREEDPLAN traits.

    PubMed

    Boerner, V; Johnston, D; Wu, X-L; Bauck, S

    2015-02-01

    Genomically estimated breeding values (GEBV) for Angus beef cattle are available from at least 2 commercial suppliers (Igenity [http://www.igenity.com] and Zoetis [http://www.zoetis.com]). The utility of these GEBV for improving genetic evaluation depends on their accuracies, which can be estimated by the genetic correlation with phenotypic target traits. Genomically estimated breeding values of 1,032 Angus bulls calculated from prediction equations (PE) derived by 2 different procedures in the U.S. Angus population were supplied by Igenity. Both procedures were based on Illuminia BovineSNP50 BeadChip genotypes. In procedure sg, GEBV were calculated from PE that used subsets of only 392 SNP, where these subsets were individually selected for each trait by BayesCπ. In procedure rg GEBV were calculated from PE derived in a ridge regression approach using all available SNP. Because the total set of 1,032 bulls with GEBV contained 732 individuals used in the Igenity training population, GEBV subsets were formed characterized by a decreasing average relationship between individuals in the subsets and individuals in the training population. Accuracies of GEBV were estimated as genetic correlations between GEBV and their phenotypic target traits modeling GEBV as trait observations in a bivariate REML approach, in which phenotypic observations were those recorded in the commercial Australian Angus seed stock sector. Using results from the GEBV subset excluding all training individuals as a reference, estimated accuracies were generally in agreement with those already published, with both types of GEBV (sg and rg) yielding similar results. Accuracies for growth traits ranged from 0.29 to 0.45, for reproductive traits from 0.11 to 0.53, and for carcass traits from 0.3 to 0.75. Accuracies generally decreased with an increasing genetic distance between the training and the validation population. However, for some carcass traits characterized by a low number of phenotypic

  7. Predicting the accuracy of multiple sequence alignment algorithms by using computational intelligent techniques

    PubMed Central

    Ortuño, Francisco M.; Valenzuela, Olga; Pomares, Hector; Rojas, Fernando; Florido, Javier P.; Urquiza, Jose M.

    2013-01-01

    Multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) have become one of the most studied approaches in bioinformatics to perform other outstanding tasks such as structure prediction, biological function analysis or next-generation sequencing. However, current MSA algorithms do not always provide consistent solutions, since alignments become increasingly difficult when dealing with low similarity sequences. As widely known, these algorithms directly depend on specific features of the sequences, causing relevant influence on the alignment accuracy. Many MSA tools have been recently designed but it is not possible to know in advance which one is the most suitable for a particular set of sequences. In this work, we analyze some of the most used algorithms presented in the bibliography and their dependences on several features. A novel intelligent algorithm based on least square support vector machine is then developed to predict how accurate each alignment could be, depending on its analyzed features. This algorithm is performed with a dataset of 2180 MSAs. The proposed system first estimates the accuracy of possible alignments. The most promising methodologies are then selected in order to align each set of sequences. Since only one selected algorithm is run, the computational time is not excessively increased. PMID:23066102

  8. How Nonrecidivism Affects Predictive Accuracy: Evidence from a Cross-Validation of the Ontario Domestic Assault Risk Assessment (ODARA)

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hilton, N. Zoe; Harris, Grant T.

    2009-01-01

    Prediction effect sizes such as ROC area are important for demonstrating a risk assessment's generalizability and utility. How a study defines recidivism might affect predictive accuracy. Nonrecidivism is problematic when predicting specialized violence (e.g., domestic violence). The present study cross-validates the ability of the Ontario…

  9. Joint analysis of psychiatric disorders increases accuracy of risk prediction for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Maier, Robert; Moser, Gerhard; Chen, Guo-Bo; Ripke, Stephan; Coryell, William; Potash, James B; Scheftner, William A; Shi, Jianxin; Weissman, Myrna M; Hultman, Christina M; Landén, Mikael; Levinson, Douglas F; Kendler, Kenneth S; Smoller, Jordan W; Wray, Naomi R; Lee, S Hong

    2015-02-01

    Genetic risk prediction has several potential applications in medical research and clinical practice and could be used, for example, to stratify a heterogeneous population of patients by their predicted genetic risk. However, for polygenic traits, such as psychiatric disorders, the accuracy of risk prediction is low. Here we use a multivariate linear mixed model and apply multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction for genetic risk prediction. This method exploits correlations between disorders and simultaneously evaluates individual risk for each disorder. We show that the multivariate approach significantly increases the prediction accuracy for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder in the discovery as well as in independent validation datasets. By grouping SNPs based on genome annotation and fitting multiple random effects, we show that the prediction accuracy could be further improved. The gain in prediction accuracy of the multivariate approach is equivalent to an increase in sample size of 34% for schizophrenia, 68% for bipolar disorder, and 76% for major depressive disorders using single trait models. Because our approach can be readily applied to any number of GWAS datasets of correlated traits, it is a flexible and powerful tool to maximize prediction accuracy. With current sample size, risk predictors are not useful in a clinical setting but already are a valuable research tool, for example in experimental designs comparing cases with high and low polygenic risk.

  10. Joint Analysis of Psychiatric Disorders Increases Accuracy of Risk Prediction for Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder, and Major Depressive Disorder

    PubMed Central

    Maier, Robert; Moser, Gerhard; Chen, Guo-Bo; Ripke, Stephan; Absher, Devin; Agartz, Ingrid; Akil, Huda; Amin, Farooq; Andreassen, Ole A.; Anjorin, Adebayo; Anney, Richard; Arking, Dan E.; Asherson, Philip; Azevedo, Maria H.; Backlund, Lena; Badner, Judith A.; Bailey, Anthony J.; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barchas, Jack D.; Barnes, Michael R.; Barrett, Thomas B.; Bass, Nicholas; Battaglia, Agatino; Bauer, Michael; Bayés, Mònica; Bellivier, Frank; Bergen, Sarah E.; Berrettini, Wade; Betancur, Catalina; Bettecken, Thomas; Biederman, Joseph; Binder, Elisabeth B.; Black, Donald W.; Blackwood, Douglas H.R.; Bloss, Cinnamon S.; Boehnke, Michael; Boomsma, Dorret I.; Breen, Gerome; Breuer, René; Bruggeman, Richard; Buccola, Nancy G.; Buitelaar, Jan K.; Bunney, William E.; Buxbaum, Joseph D.; Byerley, William F.; Caesar, Sian; Cahn, Wiepke; Cantor, Rita M.; Casas, Miguel; Chakravarti, Aravinda; Chambert, Kimberly; Choudhury, Khalid; Cichon, Sven; Cloninger, C. Robert; Collier, David A.; Cook, Edwin H.; Coon, Hilary; Cormand, Bru; Cormican, Paul; Corvin, Aiden; Coryell, William H.; Craddock, Nicholas; Craig, David W.; Craig, Ian W.; Crosbie, Jennifer; Cuccaro, Michael L.; Curtis, David; Czamara, Darina; Daly, Mark J.; Datta, Susmita; Dawson, Geraldine; Day, Richard; De Geus, Eco J.; Degenhardt, Franziska; Devlin, Bernie; Djurovic, Srdjan; Donohoe, Gary J.; Doyle, Alysa E.; Duan, Jubao; Dudbridge, Frank; Duketis, Eftichia; Ebstein, Richard P.; Edenberg, Howard J.; Elia, Josephine; Ennis, Sean; Etain, Bruno; Fanous, Ayman; Faraone, Stephen V.; Farmer, Anne E.; Ferrier, I. Nicol; Flickinger, Matthew; Fombonne, Eric; Foroud, Tatiana; Frank, Josef; Franke, Barbara; Fraser, Christine; Freedman, Robert; Freimer, Nelson B.; Freitag, Christine M.; Friedl, Marion; Frisén, Louise; Gallagher, Louise; Gejman, Pablo V.; Georgieva, Lyudmila; Gershon, Elliot S.; Geschwind, Daniel H.; Giegling, Ina; Gill, Michael; Gordon, Scott D.; Gordon-Smith, Katherine; Green, Elaine K.; Greenwood, Tiffany A.; Grice, Dorothy E.; Gross, Magdalena; Grozeva, Detelina; Guan, Weihua; Gurling, Hugh; De Haan, Lieuwe; Haines, Jonathan L.; Hakonarson, Hakon; Hallmayer, Joachim; Hamilton, Steven P.; Hamshere, Marian L.; Hansen, Thomas F.; Hartmann, Annette M.; Hautzinger, Martin; Heath, Andrew C.; Henders, Anjali K.; Herms, Stefan; Hickie, Ian B.; Hipolito, Maria; Hoefels, Susanne; Holmans, Peter A.; Holsboer, Florian; Hoogendijk, Witte J.; Hottenga, Jouke-Jan; Hultman, Christina M.; Hus, Vanessa; Ingason, Andrés; Ising, Marcus; Jamain, Stéphane; Jones, Ian; Jones, Lisa; Kähler, Anna K.; Kahn, René S.; Kandaswamy, Radhika; Keller, Matthew C.; Kelsoe, John R.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Kennedy, James L.; Kenny, Elaine; Kent, Lindsey; Kim, Yunjung; Kirov, George K.; Klauck, Sabine M.; Klei, Lambertus; Knowles, James A.; Kohli, Martin A.; Koller, Daniel L.; Konte, Bettina; Korszun, Ania; Krabbendam, Lydia; Krasucki, Robert; Kuntsi, Jonna; Kwan, Phoenix; Landén, Mikael; Långström, Niklas; Lathrop, Mark; Lawrence, Jacob; Lawson, William B.; Leboyer, Marion; Ledbetter, David H.; Lee, Phil H.; Lencz, Todd; Lesch, Klaus-Peter; Levinson, Douglas F.; Lewis, Cathryn M.; Li, Jun; Lichtenstein, Paul; Lieberman, Jeffrey A.; Lin, Dan-Yu; Linszen, Don H.; Liu, Chunyu; Lohoff, Falk W.; Loo, Sandra K.; Lord, Catherine; Lowe, Jennifer K.; Lucae, Susanne; MacIntyre, Donald J.; Madden, Pamela A.F.; Maestrini, Elena; Magnusson, Patrik K.E.; Mahon, Pamela B.; Maier, Wolfgang; Malhotra, Anil K.; Mane, Shrikant M.; Martin, Christa L.; Martin, Nicholas G.; Mattheisen, Manuel; Matthews, Keith; Mattingsdal, Morten; McCarroll, Steven A.; McGhee, Kevin A.; McGough, James J.; McGrath, Patrick J.; McGuffin, Peter; McInnis, Melvin G.; McIntosh, Andrew; McKinney, Rebecca; McLean, Alan W.; McMahon, Francis J.; McMahon, William M.; McQuillin, Andrew; Medeiros, Helena; Medland, Sarah E.; Meier, Sandra; Melle, Ingrid; Meng, Fan; Meyer, Jobst; Middeldorp, Christel M.; Middleton, Lefkos; Milanova, Vihra; Miranda, Ana; Monaco, Anthony P.; Montgomery, Grant W.; Moran, Jennifer L.; Moreno-De-Luca, Daniel; Morken, Gunnar; Morris, Derek W.; Morrow, Eric M.; Moskvina, Valentina; Mowry, Bryan J.; Muglia, Pierandrea; Mühleisen, Thomas W.; Müller-Myhsok, Bertram; Murtha, Michael; Myers, Richard M.; Myin-Germeys, Inez; Neale, Benjamin M.; Nelson, Stan F.; Nievergelt, Caroline M.; Nikolov, Ivan; Nimgaonkar, Vishwajit; Nolen, Willem A.; Nöthen, Markus M.; Nurnberger, John I.; Nwulia, Evaristus A.; Nyholt, Dale R.; O’Donovan, Michael C.; O’Dushlaine, Colm; Oades, Robert D.; Olincy, Ann; Oliveira, Guiomar; Olsen, Line; Ophoff, Roel A.; Osby, Urban; Owen, Michael J.; Palotie, Aarno; Parr, Jeremy R.; Paterson, Andrew D.; Pato, Carlos N.; Pato, Michele T.; Penninx, Brenda W.; Pergadia, Michele L.; Pericak-Vance, Margaret A.; Perlis, Roy H.; Pickard, Benjamin S.; Pimm, Jonathan; Piven, Joseph; Posthuma, Danielle; Potash, James B.; Poustka, Fritz; Propping, Peter; Purcell, Shaun M.; Puri, Vinay; Quested, Digby J.; Quinn, Emma M.; Ramos-Quiroga, Josep Antoni; Rasmussen, Henrik B.; Raychaudhuri, Soumya; Rehnström, Karola; Reif, Andreas; Ribasés, Marta; Rice, John P.; Rietschel, Marcella; Ripke, Stephan; Roeder, Kathryn; Roeyers, Herbert; Rossin, Lizzy; Rothenberger, Aribert; Rouleau, Guy; Ruderfer, Douglas; Rujescu, Dan; Sanders, Alan R.; Sanders, Stephan J.; Santangelo, Susan L.; Schachar, Russell; Schalling, Martin; Schatzberg, Alan F.; Scheftner, William A.; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Scherer, Stephen W.; Schork, Nicholas J.; Schulze, Thomas G.; Schumacher, Johannes; Schwarz, Markus; Scolnick, Edward; Scott, Laura J.; Sergeant, Joseph A.; Shi, Jianxin; Shilling, Paul D.; Shyn, Stanley I.; Silverman, Jeremy M.; Sklar, Pamela; Slager, Susan L.; Smalley, Susan L.; Smit, Johannes H.; Smith, Erin N.; Smoller, Jordan W.; Sonuga-Barke, Edmund J.S.; St Clair, David; State, Matthew; Steffens, Michael; Steinhausen, Hans-Christoph; Strauss, John S.; Strohmaier, Jana; Stroup, T. Scott; Sullivan, Patrick F.; Sutcliffe, James; Szatmari, Peter; Szelinger, Szabocls; Thapar, Anita; Thirumalai, Srinivasa; Thompson, Robert C.; Todorov, Alexandre A.; Tozzi, Federica; Treutlein, Jens; Tzeng, Jung-Ying; Uhr, Manfred; van den Oord, Edwin J.C.G.; Van Grootheest, Gerard; Van Os, Jim; Vicente, Astrid M.; Vieland, Veronica J.; Vincent, John B.; Visscher, Peter M.; Walsh, Christopher A.; Wassink, Thomas H.; Watson, Stanley J.; Weiss, Lauren A.; Weissman, Myrna M.; Werge, Thomas; Wienker, Thomas F.; Wiersma, Durk; Wijsman, Ellen M.; Willemsen, Gonneke; Williams, Nigel; Willsey, A. Jeremy; Witt, Stephanie H.; Wray, Naomi R.; Xu, Wei; Young, Allan H.; Yu, Timothy W.; Zammit, Stanley; Zandi, Peter P.; Zhang, Peng; Zitman, Frans G.; Zöllner, Sebastian; Coryell, William; Potash, James B.; Scheftner, William A.; Shi, Jianxin; Weissman, Myrna M.; Hultman, Christina M.; Landén, Mikael; Levinson, Douglas F.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Smoller, Jordan W.; Wray, Naomi R.; Lee, S. Hong

    2015-01-01

    Genetic risk prediction has several potential applications in medical research and clinical practice and could be used, for example, to stratify a heterogeneous population of patients by their predicted genetic risk. However, for polygenic traits, such as psychiatric disorders, the accuracy of risk prediction is low. Here we use a multivariate linear mixed model and apply multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction for genetic risk prediction. This method exploits correlations between disorders and simultaneously evaluates individual risk for each disorder. We show that the multivariate approach significantly increases the prediction accuracy for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder in the discovery as well as in independent validation datasets. By grouping SNPs based on genome annotation and fitting multiple random effects, we show that the prediction accuracy could be further improved. The gain in prediction accuracy of the multivariate approach is equivalent to an increase in sample size of 34% for schizophrenia, 68% for bipolar disorder, and 76% for major depressive disorders using single trait models. Because our approach can be readily applied to any number of GWAS datasets of correlated traits, it is a flexible and powerful tool to maximize prediction accuracy. With current sample size, risk predictors are not useful in a clinical setting but already are a valuable research tool, for example in experimental designs comparing cases with high and low polygenic risk. PMID:25640677

  11. Joint analysis of psychiatric disorders increases accuracy of risk prediction for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder.

    PubMed

    Maier, Robert; Moser, Gerhard; Chen, Guo-Bo; Ripke, Stephan; Coryell, William; Potash, James B; Scheftner, William A; Shi, Jianxin; Weissman, Myrna M; Hultman, Christina M; Landén, Mikael; Levinson, Douglas F; Kendler, Kenneth S; Smoller, Jordan W; Wray, Naomi R; Lee, S Hong

    2015-02-01

    Genetic risk prediction has several potential applications in medical research and clinical practice and could be used, for example, to stratify a heterogeneous population of patients by their predicted genetic risk. However, for polygenic traits, such as psychiatric disorders, the accuracy of risk prediction is low. Here we use a multivariate linear mixed model and apply multi-trait genomic best linear unbiased prediction for genetic risk prediction. This method exploits correlations between disorders and simultaneously evaluates individual risk for each disorder. We show that the multivariate approach significantly increases the prediction accuracy for schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, and major depressive disorder in the discovery as well as in independent validation datasets. By grouping SNPs based on genome annotation and fitting multiple random effects, we show that the prediction accuracy could be further improved. The gain in prediction accuracy of the multivariate approach is equivalent to an increase in sample size of 34% for schizophrenia, 68% for bipolar disorder, and 76% for major depressive disorders using single trait models. Because our approach can be readily applied to any number of GWAS datasets of correlated traits, it is a flexible and powerful tool to maximize prediction accuracy. With current sample size, risk predictors are not useful in a clinical setting but already are a valuable research tool, for example in experimental designs comparing cases with high and low polygenic risk. PMID:25640677

  12. No pain no gain: The positive impact of punishment on the strategic regulation of accuracy.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Michelle M; Chisholm, Lisa M; Prike, Toby

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that punishing people through a large penalty for volunteering incorrect information typically leads them to withhold more information (metacognitive response bias), but it does not appear to influence their ability to distinguish between their own correct and incorrect answers (metacognitive accuracy discrimination). The goal of the current study was to demonstrate that punishing people for volunteering incorrect information-versus rewarding volunteering correct information-produces more effective metacognitive accuracy discrimination. All participants completed three different general-knowledge tests: a reward test (high points for correct volunteered answers), a baseline test (equal points/penalties for volunteered correct/incorrect answers) and a punishment test (high penalty for incorrect volunteered answers). Participants were significantly better at distinguishing between their own correct and incorrect answers on the punishment than reward test, which has implications for situations requiring effective accuracy monitoring. PMID:25529220

  13. No pain no gain: The positive impact of punishment on the strategic regulation of accuracy.

    PubMed

    Arnold, Michelle M; Chisholm, Lisa M; Prike, Toby

    2016-01-01

    Previous studies have shown that punishing people through a large penalty for volunteering incorrect information typically leads them to withhold more information (metacognitive response bias), but it does not appear to influence their ability to distinguish between their own correct and incorrect answers (metacognitive accuracy discrimination). The goal of the current study was to demonstrate that punishing people for volunteering incorrect information-versus rewarding volunteering correct information-produces more effective metacognitive accuracy discrimination. All participants completed three different general-knowledge tests: a reward test (high points for correct volunteered answers), a baseline test (equal points/penalties for volunteered correct/incorrect answers) and a punishment test (high penalty for incorrect volunteered answers). Participants were significantly better at distinguishing between their own correct and incorrect answers on the punishment than reward test, which has implications for situations requiring effective accuracy monitoring.

  14. The contact caveat: negative contact predicts increased prejudice more than positive contact predicts reduced prejudice.

    PubMed

    Barlow, Fiona Kate; Paolini, Stefania; Pedersen, Anne; Hornsey, Matthew J; Radke, Helena R M; Harwood, Jake; Rubin, Mark; Sibley, Chris G

    2012-12-01

    Contact researchers have largely overlooked the potential for negative intergroup contact to increase prejudice. In Study 1, we tested the interaction between contact quantity and valence on prejudice toward Black Australians (n = 1,476), Muslim Australians (n = 173), and asylum seekers (n = 293). In all cases, the association between contact quantity and prejudice was moderated by its valence, with negative contact emerging as a stronger and more consistent predictor than positive contact. In Study 2, White Americans (n = 441) indicated how much positive and negative contact they had with Black Americans on separate measures. Although both quantity of positive and negative contact predicted racism and avoidance, negative contact was the stronger predictor. Furthermore, negative (but not positive) contact independently predicted suspicion about Barack Obama's birthplace. These results extend the contact hypothesis by issuing an important caveat: Negative contact may be more strongly associated with increased racism and discrimination than positive contact is with its reduction.

  15. Increased prediction accuracy in wheat breeding trials using a marker × environment interaction genomic selection model.

    PubMed

    Lopez-Cruz, Marco; Crossa, Jose; Bonnett, David; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Poland, Jesse; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Singh, Ravi P; Autrique, Enrique; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2015-04-01

    Genomic selection (GS) models use genome-wide genetic information to predict genetic values of candidates of selection. Originally, these models were developed without considering genotype × environment interaction(G×E). Several authors have proposed extensions of the single-environment GS model that accommodate G×E using either covariance functions or environmental covariates. In this study, we model G×E using a marker × environment interaction (M×E) GS model; the approach is conceptually simple and can be implemented with existing GS software. We discuss how the model can be implemented by using an explicit regression of phenotypes on markers or using co-variance structures (a genomic best linear unbiased prediction-type model). We used the M×E model to analyze three CIMMYT wheat data sets (W1, W2, and W3), where more than 1000 lines were genotyped using genotyping-by-sequencing and evaluated at CIMMYT's research station in Ciudad Obregon, Mexico, under simulated environmental conditions that covered different irrigation levels, sowing dates and planting systems. We compared the M×E model with a stratified (i.e., within-environment) analysis and with a standard (across-environment) GS model that assumes that effects are constant across environments (i.e., ignoring G×E). The prediction accuracy of the M×E model was substantially greater of that of an across-environment analysis that ignores G×E. Depending on the prediction problem, the M×E model had either similar or greater levels of prediction accuracy than the stratified analyses. The M×E model decomposes marker effects and genomic values into components that are stable across environments (main effects) and others that are environment-specific (interactions). Therefore, in principle, the interaction model could shed light over which variants have effects that are stable across environments and which ones are responsible for G×E. The data set and the scripts required to reproduce the analysis are

  16. Increased Prediction Accuracy in Wheat Breeding Trials Using a Marker × Environment Interaction Genomic Selection Model

    PubMed Central

    Lopez-Cruz, Marco; Crossa, Jose; Bonnett, David; Dreisigacker, Susanne; Poland, Jesse; Jannink, Jean-Luc; Singh, Ravi P.; Autrique, Enrique; de los Campos, Gustavo

    2015-01-01

    Genomic selection (GS) models use genome-wide genetic information to predict genetic values of candidates of selection. Originally, these models were developed without considering genotype × environment interaction(G×E). Several authors have proposed extensions of the single-environment GS model that accommodate G×E using either covariance functions or environmental covariates. In this study, we model G×E using a marker × environment interaction (M×E) GS model; the approach is conceptually simple and can be implemented with existing GS software. We discuss how the model can be implemented by using an explicit regression of phenotypes on markers or using co-variance structures (a genomic best linear unbiased prediction-type model). We used the M×E model to analyze three CIMMYT wheat data sets (W1, W2, and W3), where more than 1000 lines were genotyped using genotyping-by-sequencing and evaluated at CIMMYT’s research station in Ciudad Obregon, Mexico, under simulated environmental conditions that covered different irrigation levels, sowing dates and planting systems. We compared the M×E model with a stratified (i.e., within-environment) analysis and with a standard (across-environment) GS model that assumes that effects are constant across environments (i.e., ignoring G×E). The prediction accuracy of the M×E model was substantially greater of that of an across-environment analysis that ignores G×E. Depending on the prediction problem, the M×E model had either similar or greater levels of prediction accuracy than the stratified analyses. The M×E model decomposes marker effects and genomic values into components that are stable across environments (main effects) and others that are environment-specific (interactions). Therefore, in principle, the interaction model could shed light over which variants have effects that are stable across environments and which ones are responsible for G×E. The data set and the scripts required to reproduce the analysis

  17. The utility and accuracy of oral reading fluency score types in predicting reading comprehension.

    PubMed

    Petscher, Yaacov; Kim, Young-Suk

    2011-02-01

    This study used data from the Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills (DIBELS; Good & Kaminski, 2002) oral reading fluency (ORF) probes to examine variation among different ORF score types (i.e., the median of three passages, the mean of all three passages, the mean of passages 2 and 3, and the score from passage 3) in predicting reading comprehension as a function of student reading fluency level and to compare the screening accuracy of these score types in predicting student reading comprehension. The results revealed that the relation between oral reading fluency and reading comprehension varied as a function of students' oral reading fluency and that different score types had varying predictive validity for year-end reading comprehension. The mean of all three passages demonstrated a marginally better balance in screening efficiency from September to December of grade one (especially for low-performing students), whereas in grades two and three, the median score was the best predictor. Furthermore, across all grades, increasing reading rates were observed for the three administered passages within an assessment period. The observed patterns mimicked previous experimental studies (Francis et al., 2008; Jenkins, Graff, & Miglioretti, 2009), suggesting that practice effects are an important consideration in the administration of multiple passages assessing oral reading fluency.

  18. ABodyBuilder: Automated antibody structure prediction with data–driven accuracy estimation

    PubMed Central

    Leem, Jinwoo; Dunbar, James; Georges, Guy; Shi, Jiye; Deane, Charlotte M.

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Computational modeling of antibody structures plays a critical role in therapeutic antibody design. Several antibody modeling pipelines exist, but no freely available methods currently model nanobodies, provide estimates of expected model accuracy, or highlight potential issues with the antibody's experimental development. Here, we describe our automated antibody modeling pipeline, ABodyBuilder, designed to overcome these issues. The algorithm itself follows the standard 4 steps of template selection, orientation prediction, complementarity-determining region (CDR) loop modeling, and side chain prediction. ABodyBuilder then annotates the ‘confidence’ of the model as a probability that a component of the antibody (e.g., CDRL3 loop) will be modeled within a root–mean square deviation threshold. It also flags structural motifs on the model that are known to cause issues during in vitro development. ABodyBuilder was tested on 4 separate datasets, including the 11 antibodies from the Antibody Modeling Assessment–II competition. ABodyBuilder builds models that are of similar quality to other methodologies, with sub–Angstrom predictions for the ‘canonical’ CDR loops. Its ability to model nanobodies, and rapidly generate models (∼30 seconds per model) widens its potential usage. ABodyBuilder can also help users in decision–making for the development of novel antibodies because it provides model confidence and potential sequence liabilities. ABodyBuilder is freely available at http://opig.stats.ox.ac.uk/webapps/abodybuilder. PMID:27392298

  19. Accuracy of genomic prediction using deregressed breeding values estimated from purebred and crossbred offspring phenotypes in pigs.

    PubMed

    Hidalgo, A M; Bastiaansen, J W M; Lopes, M S; Veroneze, R; Groenen, M A M; de Koning, D-J

    2015-07-01

    Genomic selection is applied to dairy cattle breeding to improve the genetic progress of purebred (PB) animals, whereas in pigs and poultry the target is a crossbred (CB) animal for which a different strategy appears to be needed. The source of information used to estimate the breeding values, i.e., using phenotypes of CB or PB animals, may affect the accuracy of prediction. The objective of our study was to assess the direct genomic value (DGV) accuracy of CB and PB pigs using different sources of phenotypic information. Data used were from 3 populations: 2,078 Dutch Landrace-based, 2,301 Large White-based, and 497 crossbreds from an F1 cross between the 2 lines. Two female reproduction traits were analyzed: gestation length (GLE) and total number of piglets born (TNB). Phenotypes used in the analyses originated from offspring of genotyped individuals. Phenotypes collected on CB and PB animals were analyzed as separate traits using a single-trait model. Breeding values were estimated separately for each trait in a pedigree BLUP analysis and subsequently deregressed. Deregressed EBV for each trait originating from different sources (CB or PB offspring) were used to study the accuracy of genomic prediction. Accuracy of prediction was computed as the correlation between DGV and the DEBV of the validation population. Accuracy of prediction within PB populations ranged from 0.43 to 0.62 across GLE and TNB. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with one PB population in the training set ranged from 0.12 to 0.28, with the exception of using the CB offspring phenotype of the Dutch Landrace that resulted in an accuracy estimate around 0 for both traits. Accuracies to predict genetic merit of CB animals with both parental PB populations in the training set ranged from 0.17 to 0.30. We conclude that prediction within population and trait had good predictive ability regardless of the trait being the PB or CB performance, whereas using PB population(s) to predict

  20. Reconciling multiple data sources to improve accuracy of large-scale prediction of forest disease incidence

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Hanks, E.M.; Hooten, M.B.; Baker, F.A.

    2011-01-01

    Ecological spatial data often come from multiple sources, varying in extent and accuracy. We describe a general approach to reconciling such data sets through the use of the Bayesian hierarchical framework. This approach provides a way for the data sets to borrow strength from one another while allowing for inference on the underlying ecological process. We apply this approach to study the incidence of eastern spruce dwarf mistletoe (Arceuthobium pusillum) in Minnesota black spruce (Picea mariana). A Minnesota Department of Natural Resources operational inventory of black spruce stands in northern Minnesota found mistletoe in 11% of surveyed stands, while a small, specific-pest survey found mistletoe in 56% of the surveyed stands. We reconcile these two surveys within a Bayesian hierarchical framework and predict that 35-59% of black spruce stands in northern Minnesota are infested with dwarf mistletoe. ?? 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.

  1. High Accuracy Liquid Propellant Slosh Predictions Using an Integrated CFD and Controls Analysis Interface

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Griffin, David; Schallhorn, Dr. Paul; Roth, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    Coupling computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with a controls analysis tool elegantly allows for high accuracy predictions of the interaction between sloshing liquid propellants and th e control system of a launch vehicle. Instead of relying on mechanical analogs which are not valid during aU stages of flight, this method allows for a direct link between the vehicle dynamic environments calculated by the solver in the controls analysis tool to the fluid flow equations solved by the CFD code. This paper describes such a coupling methodology, presents the results of a series of test cases, and compares said results against equivalent results from extensively validated tools. The coupling methodology, described herein, has proven to be highly accurate in a variety of different cases.

  2. Accuracy of methods of age estimation in predicting dental age of preadolescents in South Indian children.

    PubMed

    Balla, Sudheer B; Venkat Baghirath, P; Hari Vinay, B; Vijay Kumar, J; Babu, D B Gandhi

    2016-10-01

    Age estimation in forensic context is of prime importance for criminal, civil and administrative laws. The objective of this study is to test the accuracy of 3 methods of age estimation in South Indian children (preadolescents) aged between 7 and 15 years. It is a retrospective study of orthopantamograms (OPGs) of 150 children among which 79 were boys and 71 were girls. Cameriere's, Willems and Acharya's age estimation methods were used to predict chronological age. Paired t-test was used to compare all data and relationships between continuous variables were examined using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The Cameriere's method Underestimated the real age by -0.62 years in boys and -0.54 years in girls. Both Willems and Acharya's methods overestimated age in both sexes by 0.41, 0.18 years and 0.41, 0.47 years respectively.

  3. Accuracy of methods of age estimation in predicting dental age of preadolescents in South Indian children.

    PubMed

    Balla, Sudheer B; Venkat Baghirath, P; Hari Vinay, B; Vijay Kumar, J; Babu, D B Gandhi

    2016-10-01

    Age estimation in forensic context is of prime importance for criminal, civil and administrative laws. The objective of this study is to test the accuracy of 3 methods of age estimation in South Indian children (preadolescents) aged between 7 and 15 years. It is a retrospective study of orthopantamograms (OPGs) of 150 children among which 79 were boys and 71 were girls. Cameriere's, Willems and Acharya's age estimation methods were used to predict chronological age. Paired t-test was used to compare all data and relationships between continuous variables were examined using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The Cameriere's method Underestimated the real age by -0.62 years in boys and -0.54 years in girls. Both Willems and Acharya's methods overestimated age in both sexes by 0.41, 0.18 years and 0.41, 0.47 years respectively. PMID:27428567

  4. Integrated CFD and Controls Analysis Interface for High Accuracy Liquid Propellant Slosh Predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Marsell, Brandon; Griffin, David; Schallhorn, Paul; Roth, Jacob

    2012-01-01

    Coupling computational fluid dynamics (CFD) with a controls analysis tool elegantly allows for high accuracy predictions of the interaction between sloshing liquid propellants and the control system of a launch vehicle. Instead of relying on mechanical analogs which are n0t va lid during all stages of flight, this method allows for a direct link between the vehicle dynamic environments calculated by the solver in the controls analysis tool to the fluid now equations solved by the CFD code. This paper describes such a coupling methodology, presents the results of a series of test cases, and compares said results against equivalent results from extensively validated tools. The coupling methodology, described herein, has proven to be highly accurate in a variety of different cases.

  5. Positioning accuracy of cone-beam computed tomography in combination with a HexaPOD robot treatment table

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Juergen . E-mail: juergen.meyer@canterbury.ac.nz; Wilbert, Juergen; Baier, Kurt; Guckenberger, Matthias; Richter, Anne; Sauer, Otto; Flentje, Michael

    2007-03-15

    Purpose: To scrutinize the positioning accuracy and reproducibility of a commercial hexapod robot treatment table (HRTT) in combination with a commercial cone-beam computed tomography system for image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). Methods and Materials: The mechanical stability of the X-ray volume imaging (XVI) system was tested in terms of reproducibility and with a focus on the moveable parts, i.e., the influence of kV panel and the source arm on the reproducibility and accuracy of both bone and gray value registration using a head-and-neck phantom. In consecutive measurements the accuracy of the HRTT for translational, rotational, and a combination of translational and rotational corrections was investigated. The operational range of the HRTT was also determined and analyzed. Results: The system performance of the XVI system alone was very stable with mean translational and rotational errors of below 0.2 mm and below 0.2{sup o}, respectively. The mean positioning accuracy of the HRTT in combination with the XVI system summarized over all measurements was below 0.3 mm and below 0.3{sup o} for translational and rotational corrections, respectively. The gray value match was more accurate than the bone match. Conclusion: The XVI image acquisition and registration procedure were highly reproducible. Both translational and rotational positioning errors can be corrected very precisely with the HRTT. The HRTT is therefore well suited to complement cone-beam computed tomography to take full advantage of position correction in six degrees of freedom for IGRT. The combination of XVI and the HRTT has the potential to improve the accuracy of high-precision treatments.

  6. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling.

    PubMed

    Nakas, Christos T; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the "big data" era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures. PMID:27414408

  7. Population activity in the human dorsal pathway predicts the accuracy of visual motion detection.

    PubMed

    Donner, Tobias H; Siegel, Markus; Oostenveld, Robert; Fries, Pascal; Bauer, Markus; Engel, Andreas K

    2007-07-01

    A person's ability to detect a weak visual target stimulus varies from one viewing to the next. We tested whether the trial-to-trial fluctuations of neural population activity in the human brain are related to the fluctuations of behavioral performance in a "yes-no" visual motion-detection task. We recorded neural population activity with whole head magnetoencephalography (MEG) while subjects searched for a weak coherent motion signal embedded in spatiotemporal noise. We found that, during motion viewing, MEG activity in the 12- to 24-Hz ("beta") frequency range is higher, on average, before correct behavioral choices than before errors and that it predicts correct choices on a trial-by-trial basis. This performance-predictive activity is not evident in the prestimulus baseline and builds up slowly after stimulus onset. Source reconstruction revealed that the performance-predictive activity is expressed in the posterior parietal and dorsolateral prefrontal cortices and, less strongly, in the visual motion-sensitive area MT+. The 12- to 24-Hz activity in these key stages of the human dorsal visual pathway is correlated with behavioral choice in both target-present and target-absent conditions. Importantly, in the absence of the target, 12- to 24-Hz activity tends to be higher before "no" choices ("correct rejects") than before "yes" choices ("false alarms"). It thus predicts the accuracy, and not the content, of subjects' upcoming perceptual reports. We conclude that beta band activity in the human dorsal visual pathway indexes, and potentially controls, the efficiency of neural computations underlying simple perceptual decisions.

  8. Accuracy and Calibration of Computational Approaches for Inpatient Mortality Predictive Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Nakas, Christos T.; Schütz, Narayan; Werners, Marcus; Leichtle, Alexander B.

    2016-01-01

    Electronic Health Record (EHR) data can be a key resource for decision-making support in clinical practice in the “big data” era. The complete database from early 2012 to late 2015 involving hospital admissions to Inselspital Bern, the largest Swiss University Hospital, was used in this study, involving over 100,000 admissions. Age, sex, and initial laboratory test results were the features/variables of interest for each admission, the outcome being inpatient mortality. Computational decision support systems were utilized for the calculation of the risk of inpatient mortality. We assessed the recently proposed Acute Laboratory Risk of Mortality Score (ALaRMS) model, and further built generalized linear models, generalized estimating equations, artificial neural networks, and decision tree systems for the predictive modeling of the risk of inpatient mortality. The Area Under the ROC Curve (AUC) for ALaRMS marginally corresponded to the anticipated accuracy (AUC = 0.858). Penalized logistic regression methodology provided a better result (AUC = 0.872). Decision tree and neural network-based methodology provided even higher predictive performance (up to AUC = 0.912 and 0.906, respectively). Additionally, decision tree-based methods can efficiently handle Electronic Health Record (EHR) data that have a significant amount of missing records (in up to >50% of the studied features) eliminating the need for imputation in order to have complete data. In conclusion, we show that statistical learning methodology can provide superior predictive performance in comparison to existing methods and can also be production ready. Statistical modeling procedures provided unbiased, well-calibrated models that can be efficient decision support tools for predicting inpatient mortality and assigning preventive measures. PMID:27414408

  9. Accuracy of implant positioning for minimally invasive total knee arthroplasty in patients with severe varus deformity.

    PubMed

    Niki, Yasuo; Matsumoto, Hideo; Otani, Toshiro; Enomoto, Hiroyuki; Toyama, Yoshiaki; Suda, Yasunori

    2010-04-01

    Minimally invasive surgery (MIS) in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) reportedly yields decreased patient morbidity and a rapid return of function, but how much deformity can be accepted for MIS-TKA remains unclear. This study investigated 238 knees from 218 consecutive patients who underwent MIS-TKA. Patients were divided into groups with tibiofemoral mechanical axis (TFM) 195 degrees or greater and TFM less than 195 degrees, then clinical and radiographic results were compared. Similar improvements in knee score at 3 months postoperatively were obtained in the both groups, whereas radiographic accuracy of the coronal alignment in the TFM >or=195 degrees group was inferior to that in TFM <195 degrees group. Postoperative TFM was significantly worsened in patients with lateral bowing angle of the femoral shaft (LBFS) 4 degrees or greater, and 53% of patients in the TFM >or=195 degrees group displayed LBFS 4 degrees or greater, explaining the inferior radiographic accuracy in this group compared with the TFM <195 degrees group. These results indicate that use of MIS techniques decreases radiographic accuracy, particularly in patients with severe genu varum and increased LBFS. PMID:20347714

  10. The Annular Suspension and Pointing (ASP) system for space experiments and predicted pointing accuracies

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Anderson, W. W.; Joshi, S. M.

    1975-01-01

    An annular suspension and pointing system consisting of pointing assemblies for coarse and vernier pointing is described. The first assembly is attached to a carrier spacecraft (e.g., the space shuttle) and consists of an azimuth gimbal and an elevation gimbal which provide 'coarse' pointing. The second or vernier pointing assembly is made up of magnetic actuators of suspension and fine pointing, roll motor segments, and an instrument or experiment mounting plate around which is attached a continuous annular rim similar to that used in the annular momentum control device. The rim provides appropriate magnetic circuits for the actuators and the roll motor segments for any instrument roll position. The results of a study to determine the pointing accuracy of the system in the presence of crew motion disturbances are presented. Typical 3 sigma worst-case errors are found to be of the order of 0.001 arc-second.

  11. Chasing probabilities - Signaling negative and positive prediction errors across domains.

    PubMed

    Meder, David; Madsen, Kristoffer H; Hulme, Oliver; Siebner, Hartwig R

    2016-07-01

    Adaptive actions build on internal probabilistic models of possible outcomes that are tuned according to the errors of their predictions when experiencing an actual outcome. Prediction errors (PEs) inform choice behavior across a diversity of outcome domains and dimensions, yet neuroimaging studies have so far only investigated such signals in singular experimental contexts. It is thus unclear whether the neuroanatomical distribution of PE encoding reported previously pertains to computational features that are invariant with respect to outcome valence, sensory domain, or some combination of the two. We acquired functional MRI data while volunteers performed four probabilistic reversal learning tasks which differed in terms of outcome valence (reward-seeking versus punishment-avoidance) and domain (abstract symbols versus facial expressions) of outcomes. We found that ventral striatum and frontopolar cortex coded increasingly positive PEs, whereas dorsal anterior cingulate cortex (dACC) traced increasingly negative PEs, irrespectively of the outcome dimension. Individual reversal behavior was unaffected by context manipulations and was predicted by activity in dACC and right inferior frontal gyrus (IFG). The stronger the response to negative PEs in these areas, the lower was the tendency to reverse choice behavior in response to negative events, suggesting that these regions enforce a rule-based strategy across outcome dimensions. Outcome valence influenced PE-related activity in left amygdala, IFG, and dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, where activity selectively scaled with increasingly positive PEs in the reward-seeking but not punishment-avoidance context, irrespective of sensory domain. Left amygdala displayed an additional influence of sensory domain. In the context of avoiding punishment, amygdala activity increased with increasingly negative PEs, but only for facial stimuli, indicating an integration of outcome valence and sensory domain during probabilistic

  12. Method to quantify accuracy of position feedback signals of a three-dimensional two-photon laser-scanning microscope

    PubMed Central

    Kummer, Michael; Kirmse, Knut; Witte, Otto W.; Haueisen, Jens; Holthoff, Knut

    2015-01-01

    Two-photon laser-scanning microscopy enables to record neuronal network activity in three-dimensional space while maintaining single-cellular resolution. One of the proposed approaches combines galvanometric x-y scanning with piezo-driven objective movements and employs hardware feedback signals for position monitoring. However, readily applicable methods to quantify the accuracy of those feedback signals are currently lacking. Here we provide techniques based on contact-free laser reflection and laser triangulation for the quantification of positioning accuracy of each spatial axis. We found that the lateral feedback signals are sufficiently accurate (defined as <2.5 µm) for a wide range of scan trajectories and frequencies. We further show that axial positioning accuracy does not only depend on objective acceleration and mass but also its geometry. We conclude that the introduced methods allow a reliable quantification of position feedback signals in a cost-efficient, easy-to-install manner and should be applicable for a wide range of two-photon laser scanning microscopes. PMID:26504620

  13. Method to quantify accuracy of position feedback signals of a three-dimensional two-photon laser-scanning microscope.

    PubMed

    Kummer, Michael; Kirmse, Knut; Witte, Otto W; Haueisen, Jens; Holthoff, Knut

    2015-10-01

    Two-photon laser-scanning microscopy enables to record neuronal network activity in three-dimensional space while maintaining single-cellular resolution. One of the proposed approaches combines galvanometric x-y scanning with piezo-driven objective movements and employs hardware feedback signals for position monitoring. However, readily applicable methods to quantify the accuracy of those feedback signals are currently lacking. Here we provide techniques based on contact-free laser reflection and laser triangulation for the quantification of positioning accuracy of each spatial axis. We found that the lateral feedback signals are sufficiently accurate (defined as <2.5 µm) for a wide range of scan trajectories and frequencies. We further show that axial positioning accuracy does not only depend on objective acceleration and mass but also its geometry. We conclude that the introduced methods allow a reliable quantification of position feedback signals in a cost-efficient, easy-to-install manner and should be applicable for a wide range of two-photon laser scanning microscopes. PMID:26504620

  14. Self-Evaluation Accuracy and Satisfaction with Performance: Are there Affective Costs or Benefits of Positive Self-Evaluation Bias?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Narciss, Susanne; Koerndle, Hermann; Dresel, Markus

    2011-01-01

    This paper examines how self-evaluation biases may influence satisfaction with performance. A review of theoretical positions suggests there are two views, both of which are supported by studies involving laboratory tasks. The first view predicts affective costs, and the second affective benefits of positive self-evaluation bias. We test the…

  15. Statistical Potentials for Hairpin and Internal Loops Improve the Accuracy of the Predicted RNA Structure

    PubMed Central

    Gardner, David P.; Ren, Pengyu; Ozer, Stuart; Gutell, Robin R.

    2011-01-01

    RNA is directly associated with a growing number of functions within the cell. The accurate prediction of different RNAs higher-order structure from their nucleic acid sequences will provide insight into their functions and molecular mechanics. We have been determining statistical potentials for a collection of structural elements that is larger than the number of structural elements determined with experimentally determined energy values. The experimentally derived free-energies and the statistical potentials for canonical base pair stacks are analogous, demonstrating that statistical potentials derived from comparative data can be used as an alternative energetic parameter. A new computational infrastructure - RNA Comparative Analysis Database (rCAD) - that utilizes a relational database was developed to manipulate and analyze very large sequence alignments and secondary structure datasets. Using rCAD, a richer set of energetic parameters for RNA fundamental structural elements including hairpin and internal loops was determined. A new version of RNAfold was developed to utilize these statistical potentials. Overall, these new statistical potentials for hairpin and internal loops integrated into the new version of RNAfold demonstrated significant improvements in the prediction accuracy of RNA secondary structure. PMID:21889515

  16. SU-E-J-118: Verification of Intrafractional Positional Accuracy Using Ultrasound Autoscan Tracking for Prostate Cancer Treatment

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, S; Hristov, D; Phillips, T

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: Transperineal ultrasound imaging is attractive option for imageguided radiation therapy as there is no need to implant fiducials, no extra imaging dose, and real time continuous imaging is possible during treatment. The aim of this study is to verify the tracking accuracy of a commercial ultrasound system under treatment conditions with a male pelvic phantom. Methods: A CT and ultrasound scan were acquired for the male pelvic phantom. The phantom was then placed in a treatment mimicking position on a motion platform. The axial and lateral tracking accuracy of the ultrasound system were verified using an independent optical tracking system. The tracking accuracy was evaluated by tracking the phantom position detected by the ultrasound system, and comparing it to the optical tracking system under the conditions of beam on (15 MV), beam off, poor image quality with an acoustic shadow introduced, and different phantom motion cycles (10 and 20 second periods). Additionally, the time lag between the ultrasound-detected and actual phantom motion was investigated. Results: Displacement amplitudes reported by the ultrasound system and optical system were within 0.5 mm of each other for both directions and all conditions. The ultrasound tracking performance in axial direction was better than in lateral direction. Radiation did not interfere with ultrasound tracking while image quality affected tracking accuracy. The tracking accuracy was better for periodic motion with 20 second period. The time delay between the ultrasound tracking system and the phantom motion was clinically acceptable. Conclusion: Intrafractional prostate motion is a potential source of treatment error especially in the context of emerging SBRT regimens. It is feasible to use transperineal ultrasound daily to monitor prostate motion during treatment. Our results verify the tracking accuracy of a commercial ultrasound system to be better than 1 mm under typical external beam treatment conditions.

  17. The effects of relatedness and GxE interaction on prediction accuracies in genomic selection: a study in cassava

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Prior to implementation of genomic selection, an evaluation of the potential accuracy of prediction can be obtained by cross validation. In this procedure, a population with both phenotypes and genotypes is split into training and validation sets. The prediction model is fitted using the training se...

  18. Lean meat prediction with HGP, CGM and CSB-Image-Meater, with prediction accuracy evaluated for different proportions of gilts, boars and castrated boars in the pig population.

    PubMed

    Engel, B; Lambooij, E; Buist, W G; Vereijken, P

    2012-02-01

    Prediction equations for the percentage lean meat in pig carcasses in The Netherlands were derived for the Hennessy Grading Probe 7, Capteur Gras/Maigre--Sydel and CSB-Image-Meater. Because castrated males are expected to vanish from the Dutch pig population in the near future, accuracy of prediction was evaluated for different scenarios representing a wide range of different proportions for entire males, castrated males and females in the Dutch pig population. The prediction equations for the instruments are in compliance with the EC regulations for prediction accuracy for the different scenarios. So, these equations will remain valid when castrated males are (gradually) removed from the Dutch slaughter population. Results of this study are of interest for researchers from countries or areas contemplating the use of one of the aforementioned instruments. The statistical approach for evaluation of prediction accuracy is of particular interest when changes in proportions of important subpopulations in the target population are foreseen.

  19. Lean meat prediction with HGP, CGM and CSB-Image-Meater, with prediction accuracy evaluated for different proportions of gilts, boars and castrated boars in the pig population.

    PubMed

    Engel, B; Lambooij, E; Buist, W G; Vereijken, P

    2012-02-01

    Prediction equations for the percentage lean meat in pig carcasses in The Netherlands were derived for the Hennessy Grading Probe 7, Capteur Gras/Maigre--Sydel and CSB-Image-Meater. Because castrated males are expected to vanish from the Dutch pig population in the near future, accuracy of prediction was evaluated for different scenarios representing a wide range of different proportions for entire males, castrated males and females in the Dutch pig population. The prediction equations for the instruments are in compliance with the EC regulations for prediction accuracy for the different scenarios. So, these equations will remain valid when castrated males are (gradually) removed from the Dutch slaughter population. Results of this study are of interest for researchers from countries or areas contemplating the use of one of the aforementioned instruments. The statistical approach for evaluation of prediction accuracy is of particular interest when changes in proportions of important subpopulations in the target population are foreseen. PMID:21871739

  20. The predictive accuracy of PREDICT: a personalized decision-making tool for Southeast Asian women with breast cancer.

    PubMed

    Wong, Hoong-Seam; Subramaniam, Shridevi; Alias, Zarifah; Taib, Nur Aishah; Ho, Gwo-Fuang; Ng, Char-Hong; Yip, Cheng-Har; Verkooijen, Helena M; Hartman, Mikael; Bhoo-Pathy, Nirmala

    2015-02-01

    Web-based prognostication tools may provide a simple and economically feasible option to aid prognostication and selection of chemotherapy in early breast cancers. We validated PREDICT, a free online breast cancer prognostication and treatment benefit tool, in a resource-limited setting. All 1480 patients who underwent complete surgical treatment for stages I to III breast cancer from 1998 to 2006 were identified from the prospective breast cancer registry of University Malaya Medical Centre, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. Calibration was evaluated by comparing the model-predicted overall survival (OS) with patients' actual OS. Model discrimination was tested using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Median age at diagnosis was 50 years. The median tumor size at presentation was 3 cm and 54% of patients had lymph node-negative disease. About 55% of women had estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer. Overall, the model-predicted 5 and 10-year OS was 86.3% and 77.5%, respectively, whereas the observed 5 and 10-year OS was 87.6% (difference: -1.3%) and 74.2% (difference: 3.3%), respectively; P values for goodness-of-fit test were 0.18 and 0.12, respectively. The program was accurate in most subgroups of patients, but significantly overestimated survival in patients aged <40 years, and in those receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy. PREDICT performed well in terms of discrimination; areas under ROC curve were 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.74-0.81) and 0.73 (95% CI: 0.68-0.78) for 5 and 10-year OS, respectively. Based on its accurate performance in this study, PREDICT may be clinically useful in prognosticating women with breast cancer and personalizing breast cancer treatment in resource-limited settings. PMID:25715267

  1. At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction.

    PubMed

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Borgwardt, Stefan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas H; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

    2015-10-01

    An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR-). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR- subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan's nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR-: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan's nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide. PMID:26407788

  2. At risk or not at risk? A meta-analysis of the prognostic accuracy of psychometric interviews for psychosis prediction

    PubMed Central

    Fusar-Poli, Paolo; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Schultze-Lutter, Frauke; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Borgwardt, Stefan; Riecher-Rössler, Anita; Addington, Jean; Perkins, Diana; Woods, Scott W; McGlashan, Thomas H; Lee, Jimmy; Klosterkötter, Joachim; Yung, Alison R; McGuire, Philip

    2015-01-01

    An accurate detection of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis is a prerequisite for effective preventive interventions. Several psychometric interviews are available, but their prognostic accuracy is unknown. We conducted a prognostic accuracy meta-analysis of psychometric interviews used to examine referrals to high risk services. The index test was an established CHR psychometric instrument used to identify subjects with and without CHR (CHR+ and CHR−). The reference index was psychosis onset over time in both CHR+ and CHR− subjects. Data were analyzed with MIDAS (STATA13). Area under the curve (AUC), summary receiver operating characteristic curves, quality assessment, likelihood ratios, Fagan’s nomogram and probability modified plots were computed. Eleven independent studies were included, with a total of 2,519 help-seeking, predominately adult subjects (CHR+: N=1,359; CHR−: N=1,160) referred to high risk services. The mean follow-up duration was 38 months. The AUC was excellent (0.90; 95% CI: 0.87-0.93), and comparable to other tests in preventive medicine, suggesting clinical utility in subjects referred to high risk services. Meta-regression analyses revealed an effect for exposure to antipsychotics and no effects for type of instrument, age, gender, follow-up time, sample size, quality assessment, proportion of CHR+ subjects in the total sample. Fagan’s nomogram indicated a low positive predictive value (5.74%) in the general non-help-seeking population. Albeit the clear need to further improve prediction of psychosis, these findings support the use of psychometric prognostic interviews for CHR as clinical tools for an indicated prevention in subjects seeking help at high risk services worldwide. PMID:26407788

  3. Accuracies of southwell and force/stiffness methods in the prediction of buckling strength of hypersonic aircraft wing tubular panels

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ko, William L.

    1987-01-01

    Accuracies of the Southwell method and the force/stiffness (F/S) method are examined when the methods were used in the prediction of buckling loads of hypersonic aircraft wing tubular panels, based on nondestructive buckling test data. Various factors affecting the accuracies of the two methods were discussed. Effects of load cutoff point in the nondestructive buckling tests on the accuracies of the two methods were discussed in great detail. For the tubular panels under pure compression, the F/S method was found to give more accurate buckling load predictions than the Southwell method, which excessively overpredicts the buckling load. It was found that the Southwell method required a higher load cutoff point, as compared with the F/S method. In using the F/S method for predicting the buckling load of tubular panels under pure compression, the load cutoff point of approximately 50 percent of the critical load could give reasonably accurate predictions.

  4. Accuracy of whole-genome prediction using a genetic architecture-enhanced variance-covariance matrix.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhe; Erbe, Malena; He, Jinlong; Ober, Ulrike; Gao, Ning; Zhang, Hao; Simianer, Henner; Li, Jiaqi

    2015-02-09

    Obtaining accurate predictions of unobserved genetic or phenotypic values for complex traits in animal, plant, and human populations is possible through whole-genome prediction (WGP), a combined analysis of genotypic and phenotypic data. Because the underlying genetic architecture of the trait of interest is an important factor affecting model selection, we propose a new strategy, termed BLUP|GA (BLUP-given genetic architecture), which can use genetic architecture information within the dataset at hand rather than from public sources. This is achieved by using a trait-specific covariance matrix ( T: ), which is a weighted sum of a genetic architecture part ( S: matrix) and the realized relationship matrix ( G: ). The algorithm of BLUP|GA (BLUP-given genetic architecture) is provided and illustrated with real and simulated datasets. Predictive ability of BLUP|GA was validated with three model traits in a dairy cattle dataset and 11 traits in three public datasets with a variety of genetic architectures and compared with GBLUP and other approaches. Results show that BLUP|GA outperformed GBLUP in 20 of 21 scenarios in the dairy cattle dataset and outperformed GBLUP, BayesA, and BayesB in 12 of 13 traits in the analyzed public datasets. Further analyses showed that the difference of accuracies for BLUP|GA and GBLUP significantly correlate with the distance between the T: and G: matrices. The new strategy applied in BLUP|GA is a favorable and flexible alternative to the standard GBLUP model, allowing to account for the genetic architecture of the quantitative trait under consideration when necessary. This feature is mainly due to the increased similarity between the trait-specific relationship matrix ( T: matrix) and the genetic relationship matrix at unobserved causal loci. Applying BLUP|GA in WGP would ease the burden of model selection.

  5. Accuracy of Whole-Genome Prediction Using a Genetic Architecture-Enhanced Variance-Covariance Matrix

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhe; Erbe, Malena; He, Jinlong; Ober, Ulrike; Gao, Ning; Zhang, Hao; Simianer, Henner; Li, Jiaqi

    2015-01-01

    Obtaining accurate predictions of unobserved genetic or phenotypic values for complex traits in animal, plant, and human populations is possible through whole-genome prediction (WGP), a combined analysis of genotypic and phenotypic data. Because the underlying genetic architecture of the trait of interest is an important factor affecting model selection, we propose a new strategy, termed BLUP|GA (BLUP-given genetic architecture), which can use genetic architecture information within the dataset at hand rather than from public sources. This is achieved by using a trait-specific covariance matrix (T), which is a weighted sum of a genetic architecture part (S matrix) and the realized relationship matrix (G). The algorithm of BLUP|GA (BLUP-given genetic architecture) is provided and illustrated with real and simulated datasets. Predictive ability of BLUP|GA was validated with three model traits in a dairy cattle dataset and 11 traits in three public datasets with a variety of genetic architectures and compared with GBLUP and other approaches. Results show that BLUP|GA outperformed GBLUP in 20 of 21 scenarios in the dairy cattle dataset and outperformed GBLUP, BayesA, and BayesB in 12 of 13 traits in the analyzed public datasets. Further analyses showed that the difference of accuracies for BLUP|GA and GBLUP significantly correlate with the distance between the T and G matrices. The new strategy applied in BLUP|GA is a favorable and flexible alternative to the standard GBLUP model, allowing to account for the genetic architecture of the quantitative trait under consideration when necessary. This feature is mainly due to the increased similarity between the trait-specific relationship matrix (T matrix) and the genetic relationship matrix at unobserved causal loci. Applying BLUP|GA in WGP would ease the burden of model selection. PMID:25670771

  6. On the Accuracy of CFD-Based Pressure Drop Predictions for Right-Angle Ducts

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Brankovic, Andreja

    1993-01-01

    The predictive capability of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) codes for turbulent flow through curved ducts is of significant importance to the design and performance analysis of modern rocket engine flowpaths. Code calibration and validation studies for this class of flow are desireable to estimate the performance margin and operating range of components designed using Navier-Stokes methods. Parametric experimental studies such as that of Weske (NACA ARR W-39) provided a wealth of performance data for the design of single- and compound elbow configurations with various cross-sections, curvature and aspect ratios at varying Reynolds numbers. In that work, the majority of data is presented in the form of loss coefficients, characterizing pressure losses due to duct curvature, and including losses due to wall friction. Using measured friction coefficients, losses of equivalent straight lengths of duct are subtracted, resulting in performance curves useful for design computations. These data are currently used in a CFD-based parametric study covering a broad range of operating conditions. Of particular interest for the accuracy of CFD predictions are the effects on pressure loss due to inlet boundary layer thickness (dependent on upstream development length), and the wall treatment for the turbulence equations (conventional wall functions vs. wall integration using a two-layer model). The experimental data are reassessed in the form of an error analysis, and are compared with CFD predictions for 18 computational cases. Grid-independence, grid spacing, and convergence requirements of the cases are discussed. Conclusions regarding the relative importance of the parametric variables will be presented.

  7. Predictive Accuracy of Urinary neutrophil gelatinase associated lipocalin (NGAL) for renal parenchymal involvement in Children with Acute Pyelonephritis

    PubMed Central

    Ghasemi, Kambiz; Esteghamati, Maryam; Borzoo, Sara; Parvaneh, Erfan; Borzoo, Samira

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Urinary tract infections (UTIs) are among the most prevalent infections in children and infants. Early and accurate detection of renal parenchymal involvement in UTI is necessary for decision making and determining treatment strategies. The aim of this study was to determine the predictive accuracy of urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin (NGAL) for renal parenchymal involvement in children with acute pyelonephritis. Methods This descriptive, cross-sectional study was conducted in 2014 on children who had been diagnosed with UTI. Children who were admitted to Koodakan Hospital in Bandar Abbas, Hormozgan Province, Iran, and whose ages ranged from two months to 14 years were enrolled in the study. Urine samples were taken to conduct urinary NGAL tests, urine cultures, and urinalyses. In addition, some blood samples were collected for the purpose of determining leukocyte count and C-reactive protein (CRP) and to conduct erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR) tests. All patients underwent a dimercaptosuccinic acid (DMSA) scan. SPSS software was used to analyze the data. Results Among the participants in the study, 29 were male (32%), and 60 were female (68%). The mean age of the children who participated in the study was 2.99 ± 2.94 years. The results of the Kruskal-Wallis test showed a significant increase in the urinary NGAL level, an increase in the CRP level, and higher DMSA scan grades (p < 0.001). The cutoff point amounted to > 5 mg/l, having the negative predictive value (NPV) of 76.3%, the specificity of 97.83%, the positive predictive value (PPV) of 96.7%, and the sensitivity of 67.4%. Conclusion Urinary NGAL is not sensitive enough for the prediction of renal parenchymal involvement, but it is a specific marker. PMID:27053998

  8. Accuracy of an UWB-based position tracking system used for time-motion analyses in game sports.

    PubMed

    Leser, Roland; Schleindlhuber, Armin; Lyons, Keith; Baca, Arnold

    2014-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of the ultra-wideband (UWB)-based positioning system Ubisense, which is used for time-motion analysis in sports. Furthermore, some alternatives for positioning the system's transponders on the atheletes, as well as the accuracy depending on the location of measurement, were tested. Therefore, in a pre-study, some basic issues were examined (measurement assumptions and consistency and location of the system's transponder used for position detection), and position measurements at the borders and in the centre of a basketball field were performed. In the main study, 13 male basketball players (15.8 years ± 0.6; 187.9 height ± 3.4; 77.5 weight ± 3.7), equipped with a Ubisense transponder mounted on top of their heads, handled a trundle wheel during simulated match play. The players with the trundle wheel participated passively in the match by following one of the ten competing players. The distance measurements of the trundle wheel were used as reference values and compared to the Ubisense distance estimations. Best results were found with the measurements of a single mounted transponder on top of the athlete's heads. No differences were detectable in the accuracy between measurements in the centre and at the borders of the basketball field. The (Ubisense) system's difference to the (trundle wheel) reference was 3.45 ± 1.99%, resulting in 95% limits of agreement of -0.46-7.35%. The study indicates the examined system's sufficient accuracy for time-motion analysis in basketball. PMID:24512176

  9. Accuracy of an UWB-based position tracking system used for time-motion analyses in game sports.

    PubMed

    Leser, Roland; Schleindlhuber, Armin; Lyons, Keith; Baca, Arnold

    2014-01-01

    The main aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of the ultra-wideband (UWB)-based positioning system Ubisense, which is used for time-motion analysis in sports. Furthermore, some alternatives for positioning the system's transponders on the atheletes, as well as the accuracy depending on the location of measurement, were tested. Therefore, in a pre-study, some basic issues were examined (measurement assumptions and consistency and location of the system's transponder used for position detection), and position measurements at the borders and in the centre of a basketball field were performed. In the main study, 13 male basketball players (15.8 years ± 0.6; 187.9 height ± 3.4; 77.5 weight ± 3.7), equipped with a Ubisense transponder mounted on top of their heads, handled a trundle wheel during simulated match play. The players with the trundle wheel participated passively in the match by following one of the ten competing players. The distance measurements of the trundle wheel were used as reference values and compared to the Ubisense distance estimations. Best results were found with the measurements of a single mounted transponder on top of the athlete's heads. No differences were detectable in the accuracy between measurements in the centre and at the borders of the basketball field. The (Ubisense) system's difference to the (trundle wheel) reference was 3.45 ± 1.99%, resulting in 95% limits of agreement of -0.46-7.35%. The study indicates the examined system's sufficient accuracy for time-motion analysis in basketball.

  10. Examination of the Position Accuracy of Implant Abutments Reproduced by Intra-Oral Optical Impression

    PubMed Central

    Odaira, Chikayuki; Kobayashi, Takuya; Kondo, Hisatomo

    2016-01-01

    An impression technique called optical impression using intraoral scanner has attracted attention in digital dentistry. This study aimed to evaluate the accuracy of the optical impression, comparing a virtual model reproduced by an intraoral scanner to a working cast made by conventional silicone impression technique. Two implants were placed on a master model. Working casts made of plaster were fabricated from the master model by silicone impression. The distance between the ball abutments and the angulation between the healing abutments of 5 mm and 7 mm height at master model were measured using Computer Numerical Control Coordinate Measuring Machine (CNCCMM) as control. Working casts were then measured using CNCCMM, and virtual models via stereo lithography data of master model were measured by a three-dimensional analyzing software. The distance between ball abutments of the master model was 9634.9 ± 1.2 μm. The mean values of trueness of the Lava COS and working casts were 64.5 μm and 22.5 μm, respectively, greater than that of control. The mean of precision values of the Lava COS and working casts were 15.6 μm and 13.5 μm, respectively. In the case of a 5-mm-height healing abutment, mean angulation error of the Lava COS was greater than that of the working cast, resulting in significant differences in trueness and precision. However, in the case of a 7-mm-height abutment, mean angulation errors of the Lava COS and the working cast were not significantly different in trueness and precision. Therefore, distance errors of the optical impression were slightly greater than those of conventional impression. Moreover, the trueness and precision of angulation error could be improved in the optical impression using longer healing abutments. In the near future, the development of information technology could enable improvement in the accuracy of the optical impression with intraoral scanners. PMID:27706225

  11. Performance Prediction For Multi-Sensor Tracking Systems: Kinematic Accuracy And Data Association Performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Broida, Ted J.

    1990-03-01

    This paper addresses some of the performance issues encountered in the use of multiple sensors for surveillance and tracking in aerospace and defense applications. These problems generally involve detecting the presence of an unknown number of objects of interest (often referred to as "targets"), and estimating their position and motion from periodic measurements (tracking). Measurements zk = z(tk) are received from one or more sensors at times tk and are classified (labelled) as arising either from one of the objects currently being tracked, from a new or previously undetected object, or as a false alarm or clutter. Typically, measurement models involve nonlinear functions of true object kinematics in additive zero-mean white noise, z(tk) = h[x(tk)] n(tk). Estimates of object kinematics (e.g. position, velocity, acceleration) x are formed from each labelled measurement sequence {zk}, with the objective of keeping an accurate and complete awareness of the external environment. In addition to additive measurement noise, a number of uncertainties are present: (1) objects can maneuver between measurements ("random" acceleration), (2) some measurements (threshold crossings) are due to noise alone (false alarms), or due to non-zero-mean interference, with unknown spatial and temporal covariance ("clutter"), and can be misclassified as being from an object of interest, (3) some measurements actually from an object of interest can be misclassified as being from a different object, or as being noise or clutter, (4) object detection is not guaranteed, so that a sensor can "observe" a region containing an object but fail to detect it (PD < 1), whether or not it is being tracked, and (5) there are errors in knowledge of the relative position and attitude of different sensors, particularly if sensors are moving independently (different platforms). The functions of data association (labelling measurements from different sensors, at different times, that corre-spond to the same

  12. Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience.

    PubMed

    Thoern, Hanna A; Grueschow, Marcus; Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C; Kleim, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology. PMID:27008475

  13. Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience.

    PubMed

    Thoern, Hanna A; Grueschow, Marcus; Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C; Kleim, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology.

  14. Attentional Bias towards Positive Emotion Predicts Stress Resilience

    PubMed Central

    Ehlert, Ulrike; Ruff, Christian C.; Kleim, Birgit

    2016-01-01

    There is extensive evidence for an association between an attentional bias towards emotionally negative stimuli and vulnerability to stress-related psychopathology. Less is known about whether selective attention towards emotionally positive stimuli relates to mental health and stress resilience. The current study used a modified Dot Probe task to investigate if individual differences in attentional biases towards either happy or angry emotional stimuli, or an interaction between these biases, are related to self-reported trait stress resilience. In a nonclinical sample (N = 43), we indexed attentional biases as individual differences in reaction time for stimuli preceded by either happy or angry (compared to neutral) face stimuli. Participants with greater attentional bias towards happy faces (but not angry faces) reported higher trait resilience. However, an attentional bias towards angry stimuli moderated this effect: The attentional bias towards happy faces was only predictive for resilience in those individuals who also endorsed an attentional bias towards angry stimuli. An attentional bias towards positive emotional stimuli may thus be a protective factor contributing to stress resilience, specifically in those individuals who also endorse an attentional bias towards negative emotional stimuli. Our findings therefore suggest a novel target for prevention and treatment interventions addressing stress-related psychopathology. PMID:27008475

  15. Predictive accuracy of bioelectrical impedance in estimating body composition of Native American women.

    PubMed

    Stolarczyk, L M; Heyward, V H; Hicks, V L; Baumgartner, R N

    1994-05-01

    The predictive accuracy of race-specific and fatness-specific bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) equations for estimating criterion fat-free mass (FFM) derived from two-component (2C) and multicomponent (MC) models was examined. Body density (Db) of Native American women (n = 151) aged 18-60 y was measured by hydrostatic weighing at residual volume. Total body bone ash was obtained by dual-energy, x-ray absorptiometry. Cross-validation of the Rising (5), Segal (3), and Gray (4) equations against FFM2C yielded high correlation coefficients (0.86-0.95) and acceptable SEEs (1.47-2.72 kg). Cross-validation of these equations against criterion FFMMC, with Db adjusted for total body mineral, yielded similar correlation coefficients (0.82-0.94) and SEEs (1.69-2.80 kg). However, each BIA equation significantly overestimated FFMMC. A new race-specific BIA equation based on an MC model was developed: FFMMC = 0.001254(HT2)-0.04904(R) + 0.1555(WT) + 0.1417(Xc) - 0.0833(AGE) + 20.05 (R = 0.864, and SEE = 2.63 kg). PMID:8172101

  16. Evaluation of the soil moisture prediction accuracy of a space radar using simulation techniques. [Kansas

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ulaby, F. T. (Principal Investigator); Dobson, M. C.; Stiles, J. A.; Moore, R. K.; Holtzman, J. C.

    1981-01-01

    Image simulation techniques were employed to generate synthetic aperture radar images of a 17.7 km x 19.3 km test site located east of Lawrence, Kansas. The simulations were performed for a space SAR at an orbital altitude of 600 km, with the following sensor parameters: frequency = 4.75 GHz, polarization = HH, and angle of incidence range = 7 deg to 22 deg from nadir. Three sets of images were produced corresponding to three different spatial resolutions; 20 m x 20 m with 12 looks, 100 m x 100 m with 23 looks, and 1 km x 1 km with 1000 looks. Each set consisted of images for four different soil moisture distributions across the test site. Results indicate that, for the agricultural portion of the test site, the soil moisture in about 90% of the pixels can be predicted with an accuracy of = + or - 20% of field capacity. Among the three spatial resolutions, the 1 km x 1 km resolution gave the best results for most cases, however, for very dry soil conditions, the 100 m x 100 m resolution was slightly superior.

  17. Violence risk assessment and women: predictive accuracy of the HCR-20 in a civil psychiatric sample.

    PubMed

    Garcia-Mansilla, Alexandra; Rosenfeld, Barry; Cruise, Keith R

    2011-01-01

    Research to date has not adequately demonstrated whether the HCR-20 Violence Risk Assessment Scheme (HCR-20; Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, 1997), a structured violence risk assessment measure with a robust literature supporting its validity in male samples, is a valid indicator of violence risk in women. This study utilized data from the MacArthur Study of Mental Disorder and Violence to retrospectively score an abbreviated version of HCR-20 in 827 civil psychiatric patients. HCR-20 scores and predictive accuracy of community violence were compared for men and women. Results suggested that the HCR-20 is slightly, but not significantly, better for evaluating future risk for violence in men than in women, although the magnitude of the gender differences was small and was largely limited to historical factors. The results do not indicate that the HCR-20 needs to be tailored for use in women or that it should not be used in women, but they do highlight that the HCR-20 should be used cautiously and with full awareness of its potential limitations in women.

  18. Improving the predictive accuracy of hurricane power outage forecasts using generalized additive models.

    PubMed

    Han, Seung-Ryong; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

    2009-10-01

    Electric power is a critical infrastructure service after hurricanes, and rapid restoration of electric power is important in order to minimize losses in the impacted areas. However, rapid restoration of electric power after a hurricane depends on obtaining the necessary resources, primarily repair crews and materials, before the hurricane makes landfall and then appropriately deploying these resources as soon as possible after the hurricane. This, in turn, depends on having sound estimates of both the overall severity of the storm and the relative risk of power outages in different areas. Past studies have developed statistical, regression-based approaches for estimating the number of power outages in advance of an approaching hurricane. However, these approaches have either not been applicable for future events or have had lower predictive accuracy than desired. This article shows that a different type of regression model, a generalized additive model (GAM), can outperform the types of models used previously. This is done by developing and validating a GAM based on power outage data during past hurricanes in the Gulf Coast region and comparing the results from this model to the previously used generalized linear models.

  19. Predicting the accuracy of facial affect recognition: the interaction of child maltreatment and intellectual functioning.

    PubMed

    Shenk, Chad E; Putnam, Frank W; Noll, Jennie G

    2013-02-01

    Previous research demonstrates that both child maltreatment and intellectual performance contribute uniquely to the accurate identification of facial affect by children and adolescents. The purpose of this study was to extend this research by examining whether child maltreatment affects the accuracy of facial recognition differently at varying levels of intellectual functioning. A sample of maltreated (n=50) and nonmaltreated (n=56) adolescent females, 14 to 19 years of age, was recruited to participate in this study. Participants completed demographic and study-related questionnaires and interviews to control for potential psychological and psychiatric confounds such as symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, negative affect, and difficulties in emotion regulation. Participants also completed an experimental paradigm that recorded responses to facial affect displays starting in a neutral expression and changing into a full expression of one of six emotions: happiness, sadness, anger, disgust, fear, or surprise. Hierarchical multiple regression assessed the incremental advantage of evaluating the interaction between child maltreatment and intellectual functioning. Results indicated that the interaction term accounted for a significant amount of additional variance in the accurate identification of facial affect after controlling for relevant covariates and main effects. Specifically, maltreated females with lower levels of intellectual functioning were least accurate in identifying facial affect displays, whereas those with higher levels of intellectual functioning performed as well as nonmaltreated females. These results suggest that maltreatment and intellectual functioning interact to predict the recognition of facial affect, with potential long-term consequences for the interpersonal functioning of maltreated females.

  20. Predicting the accuracy of facial affect recognition: the interaction of child maltreatment and intellectual functioning.

    PubMed

    Shenk, Chad E; Putnam, Frank W; Noll, Jennie G

    2013-02-01

    Previous research demonstrates that both child maltreatment and intellectual performance contribute uniquely to the accurate identification of facial affect by children and adolescents. The purpose of this study was to extend this research by examining whether child maltreatment affects the accuracy of facial recognition differently at varying levels of intellectual functioning. A sample of maltreated (n=50) and nonmaltreated (n=56) adolescent females, 14 to 19 years of age, was recruited to participate in this study. Participants completed demographic and study-related questionnaires and interviews to control for potential psychological and psychiatric confounds such as symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, negative affect, and difficulties in emotion regulation. Participants also completed an experimental paradigm that recorded responses to facial affect displays starting in a neutral expression and changing into a full expression of one of six emotions: happiness, sadness, anger, disgust, fear, or surprise. Hierarchical multiple regression assessed the incremental advantage of evaluating the interaction between child maltreatment and intellectual functioning. Results indicated that the interaction term accounted for a significant amount of additional variance in the accurate identification of facial affect after controlling for relevant covariates and main effects. Specifically, maltreated females with lower levels of intellectual functioning were least accurate in identifying facial affect displays, whereas those with higher levels of intellectual functioning performed as well as nonmaltreated females. These results suggest that maltreatment and intellectual functioning interact to predict the recognition of facial affect, with potential long-term consequences for the interpersonal functioning of maltreated females. PMID:23036371

  1. Tracking Accuracy of a Real-Time Fiducial Tracking System for Patient Positioning and Monitoring in Radiation Therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Shchory, Tal; Schifter, Dan; Lichtman, Rinat; Neustadter, David; Corn, Benjamin W.

    2010-11-15

    Purpose: In radiation therapy there is a need to accurately know the location of the target in real time. A novel radioactive tracking technology has been developed to answer this need. The technology consists of a radioactive implanted fiducial marker designed to minimize migration and a linac mounted tracking device. This study measured the static and dynamic accuracy of the new tracking technology in a clinical radiation therapy environment. Methods and Materials: The tracking device was installed on the linac gantry. The radioactive marker was located in a tissue equivalent phantom. Marker location was measured simultaneously by the radioactive tracking system and by a Microscribe G2 coordinate measuring machine (certified spatial accuracy of 0.38 mm). Localization consistency throughout a volume and absolute accuracy in the Fixed coordinate system were measured at multiple gantry angles over volumes of at least 10 cm in diameter centered at isocenter. Dynamic accuracy was measured with the marker located inside a breathing phantom. Results: The mean consistency for the static source was 0.58 mm throughout the tested region at all measured gantry angles. The mean absolute position error in the Fixed coordinate system for all gantry angles was 0.97 mm. The mean real-time tracking error for the dynamic source within the breathing phantom was less than 1 mm. Conclusions: This novel radioactive tracking technology has the potential to be useful in accurate target localization and real-time monitoring for radiation therapy.

  2. Frontal sinus accuracy in identification as measured by false positives in kin groups.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Molleson, Theya; Brown, Barry

    2008-11-01

    The aims of this study were to verify if frontal sinuses can uniquely identify individuals belonging to family groups using Cameriere methods and to test if kinship can affect the proportion of erroneous identifications. For this purpose, we compared the proportion of false-positive identifications in a sample of 99 individuals within 20 families with a control sample of 98 other individuals without kinship. The results show that the combined use of SOR and the Yoshino code number allows personal identification with a small probability of false positives (p < 10(-6)), even when kinship is taken into account. The present research confirms the importance of studying anthropological frameworks for identification, which leads to reliable methods and allows for both quick and economic procedures.

  3. An investigation of airborne GPS/INS for high accuracy position and velocity determination

    SciTech Connect

    Sun, H.; Cannon, M.E.; Owen, T.E.; Meindl, M.A.

    1993-12-31

    An airborne test using a differential GPS-INS system in a Twin Otter was conducted by Sandia National Laboratories to assess the feasibility of using the integrated system for cm-level position and cm/s velocity. The INS is a miniaturized ring-laser gyro IMU jointly developed by Sandia and Honeywell while the GPS system consists of the NovAtel GPSCard{trademark}. INS position, velocity and attitude data were computed using Sandia`s SANDAC flight computer system and logged at 4 Hz and GPS data was acquired at a 1 Hz rate. The mission was approximately 2.5 hours in duration and the aircraft reached separations of up to 19 km from the base station. The data was post-processed using a centralized Kalman filter approach in which the double differenced carrier phase measurements are used to update the INS data. The INS position is in turn used to detect and correct GPS carrier phase cycle slips and also to bridge GPS outages. Results are presented for the GPS-only case and also for integrated GPS/INS.

  4. RF propagation simulator to predict location accuracy of GSM mobile phones for emergency applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, Marilynn P.; Wang, S. S. Peter

    2002-11-01

    Mobile location is one of the fastest growing areas for the development of new technologies, services and applications. This paper describes the channel models that were developed as a basis of discussion to assist the Technical Subcommittee T1P1.5 in its consideration of various mobile location technologies for emergency applications (1997 - 1998) for presentation to the U.S. Federal Communication Commission (FCC). It also presents the PCS 1900 extension to this model, which is based on the COST-231 extended Hata model and review of the original Okumura graphical interpretation of signal propagation characteristics in different environments. Based on a wide array of published (and non-publicly disclosed) empirical data, the signal propagation models described in this paper were all obtained by consensus of a group of inter-company participants in order to facilitate the direct comparison between simulations of different handset-based and network-based location methods prior to their standardization for emergency E-911 applications by the FCC. Since that time, this model has become a de-facto standard for assessing the positioning accuracy of different location technologies using GSM mobile terminals. In this paper, the radio environment is described to the level of detail that is necessary to replicate it in a software environment.

  5. Predicting Ambulance Time of Arrival to the Emergency Department Using Global Positioning System and Google Maps

    PubMed Central

    Fleischman, Ross J.; Lundquist, Mark; Jui, Jonathan; Newgard, Craig D.; Warden, Craig

    2014-01-01

    Objective To derive and validate a model that accurately predicts ambulance arrival time that could be implemented as a Google Maps web application. Methods This was a retrospective study of all scene transports in Multnomah County, Oregon, from January 1 through December 31, 2008. Scene and destination hospital addresses were converted to coordinates. ArcGIS Network Analyst was used to estimate transport times based on street network speed limits. We then created a linear regression model to improve the accuracy of these street network estimates using weather, patient characteristics, use of lights and sirens, daylight, and rush-hour intervals. The model was derived from a 50% sample and validated on the remainder. Significance of the covariates was determined by p < 0.05 for a t-test of the model coefficients. Accuracy was quantified by the proportion of estimates that were within 5 minutes of the actual transport times recorded by computer-aided dispatch. We then built a Google Maps-based web application to demonstrate application in real-world EMS operations. Results There were 48,308 included transports. Street network estimates of transport time were accurate within 5 minutes of actual transport time less than 16% of the time. Actual transport times were longer during daylight and rush-hour intervals and shorter with use of lights and sirens. Age under 18 years, gender, wet weather, and trauma system entry were not significant predictors of transport time. Our model predicted arrival time within 5 minutes 73% of the time. For lights and sirens transports, accuracy was within 5 minutes 77% of the time. Accuracy was identical in the validation dataset. Lights and sirens saved an average of 3.1 minutes for transports under 8.8 minutes, and 5.3 minutes for longer transports. Conclusions An estimate of transport time based only on a street network significantly underestimated transport times. A simple model incorporating few variables can predict ambulance time of

  6. Climatic associations of British species distributions show good transferability in time but low predictive accuracy for range change.

    PubMed

    Rapacciuolo, Giovanni; Roy, David B; Gillings, Simon; Fox, Richard; Walker, Kevin; Purvis, Andy

    2012-01-01

    Conservation planners often wish to predict how species distributions will change in response to environmental changes. Species distribution models (SDMs) are the primary tool for making such predictions. Many methods are widely used; however, they all make simplifying assumptions, and predictions can therefore be subject to high uncertainty. With global change well underway, field records of observed range shifts are increasingly being used for testing SDM transferability. We used an unprecedented distribution dataset documenting recent range changes of British vascular plants, birds, and butterflies to test whether correlative SDMs based on climate change provide useful approximations of potential distribution shifts. We modelled past species distributions from climate using nine single techniques and a consensus approach, and projected the geographical extent of these models to a more recent time period based on climate change; we then compared model predictions with recent observed distributions in order to estimate the temporal transferability and prediction accuracy of our models. We also evaluated the relative effect of methodological and taxonomic variation on the performance of SDMs. Models showed good transferability in time when assessed using widespread metrics of accuracy. However, models had low accuracy to predict where occupancy status changed between time periods, especially for declining species. Model performance varied greatly among species within major taxa, but there was also considerable variation among modelling frameworks. Past climatic associations of British species distributions retain a high explanatory power when transferred to recent time--due to their accuracy to predict large areas retained by species--but fail to capture relevant predictors of change. We strongly emphasize the need for caution when using SDMs to predict shifts in species distributions: high explanatory power on temporally-independent records--as assessed using

  7. Accuracy of Prediction Method of Cryogenic Tensile Strength for Austenitic Stainless Steels in ITER Toroidal Field Coil Structure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakurai, Takeru; Icuchi, Masahide; Nakahira, Masatake; Saito, Toru; Morimoto, Masaaki; Inagaki, Takashi; Hong, Yunseok; Matsui, Kunihiro; Hemmi, Tsutomu; Kajitani, Hideki; Koizumi, Norikiyo

    The Japan Atomic Energy Agency (JAEA) has developed the prediction method for yield stress and ultimate tensile strength at liquid helium temperature (4 K) using the quadratic curve as a function of the content of carbon and nitrogen. Prediction method was formulated based on the tensile strength data of materials with shape of rectangle. In this study, tensile strength of the forged materials with round bar and complex shape were obtained so as to compare with the predicted value. The accuracy of the prediction method was 10.2% of Yield Strength (YS), 2.5% of Ultimate Tensile Strength (UTS) when the prediction method was applied to round bar forged materials. By contrast, the accuracy about prediction method was 1.8% of YS, -0.8% of UTS when prediction method was applied to complex shape forged materials. It can be presumed the tendency of tensile strength other than materials with shape of rectangle. However, it was found accuracy of round bar is larger than other materials because of difference in the forging method."The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the ITER Organization"

  8. Education Level Predicts Retrospective Metamemory Accuracy in Healthy Aging and Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Szajer, Jacquelyn; Murphy, Claire

    2013-01-01

    The current study investigated the effect of education on retrospective metamemory accuracy in 143 healthy older adults and 143 early to moderate AD patients, using retrospective measures of confidence in the accuracy of retrieval responses in an episodic odor recognition memory task. Relative confidence accuracy was computed as the difference between confidence judgments for correct and incorrect responses. In both AD patients and controls, individuals reporting 17 years of education or more had significantly more accurate levels of confidence than individuals with 12 years or less. Thus, education was a significant predictor of retrospective metamemory accuracy in healthy aging and AD. PMID:24131064

  9. Diagnostic Accuracy of Anthropometric Indicators in the Prediction of Urinary Incontinence in Physically Active Older Women.

    PubMed

    Menezes, Enaiane Cristina; Virtuoso, Janeisa Franck; Capeletto, Eduardo; Silva, Lislayne Luiza da; Chagas, Jodelle Machado; Mazo, Giovana Zarpellon

    2016-08-01

    Purpose To determine the diagnostic accuracy and the cutoff point of the variables conicity index, waist to height ratio and fat percentage to detect urinary incontinence in physically active older women. Method A total of 152 women were analyzed. The instruments used were the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ [Area 4]) to check the level of physical activity, and the Diagnostic Form to obtain sociodemographic data and presence of urinary incontinence. To calculate the conicity index, waist to height ratio and fat percentage, body mass, height and waist circumference were measured. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Cutoff points, sensitivity (S) and specificity (SP) were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. A 5% significance level was adopted. Results The prevalence of urinary incontinence was of 32.2%. The cutoff point with better sensitivity and specificity for the conicity index was 1.23 (S = 87.8; SP = 35.9); for the waist to height ratio, it was 0.57 (S = 79.6; SP = 45.6); and for the fat percentage, it was 39.71 (S = 89.8; SP = 42.7). The area under the ROC curve was 0.666 for the conicity index, 0.653 for the waist to height ratio, and 0.660 for the fat percentage. Conclusions The cutoff points for the anthropometric measurements conicity index, waist to height ratio and fat percentage indicate that these measures can be used to predict urinary incontinence in physically active older women. Furthermore, fat percentage seemed to be the best measure for this population. PMID:27571385

  10. Reduced Set of Virulence Genes Allows High Accuracy Prediction of Bacterial Pathogenicity in Humans

    PubMed Central

    Iraola, Gregorio; Vazquez, Gustavo; Spangenberg, Lucía; Naya, Hugo

    2012-01-01

    Although there have been great advances in understanding bacterial pathogenesis, there is still a lack of integrative information about what makes a bacterium a human pathogen. The advent of high-throughput sequencing technologies has dramatically increased the amount of completed bacterial genomes, for both known human pathogenic and non-pathogenic strains; this information is now available to investigate genetic features that determine pathogenic phenotypes in bacteria. In this work we determined presence/absence patterns of different virulence-related genes among more than finished bacterial genomes from both human pathogenic and non-pathogenic strains, belonging to different taxonomic groups (i.e: Actinobacteria, Gammaproteobacteria, Firmicutes, etc.). An accuracy of 95% using a cross-fold validation scheme with in-fold feature selection is obtained when classifying human pathogens and non-pathogens. A reduced subset of highly informative genes () is presented and applied to an external validation set. The statistical model was implemented in the BacFier v1.0 software (freely available at ), that displays not only the prediction (pathogen/non-pathogen) and an associated probability for pathogenicity, but also the presence/absence vector for the analyzed genes, so it is possible to decipher the subset of virulence genes responsible for the classification on the analyzed genome. Furthermore, we discuss the biological relevance for bacterial pathogenesis of the core set of genes, corresponding to eight functional categories, all with evident and documented association with the phenotypes of interest. Also, we analyze which functional categories of virulence genes were more distinctive for pathogenicity in each taxonomic group, which seems to be a completely new kind of information and could lead to important evolutionary conclusions. PMID:22916122

  11. Implementation of a program for quality assurance on leaf positioning accuracy using Gafchromic® RTQA2 films

    PubMed Central

    Girardi, Andrea; Anglesio, Silvia; Amadore, Gianluca; Trevisiol, Edoardo; Redda, Maria Grazia Ruo

    2014-01-01

    In radiotherapy treatments the correct dose delivery to the target volume and the consequent conservation of healthy tissues is affected by multileaf collimator (MLC) leaf positioning accuracy and reproducibility, mostly in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT): For this reason a quality assurance (QA) program is necessary to ensure the best treatment possible to each patient. The aim of this study is the implementation of a method using Gafchromic® RTQA 2 films to perform routine QA on the MLC, both for qualitative and quantitative analysis. A flatbed document scanner (Epson 10000XL) was used in conjunction with radiochromic detector; a scanning protocol was firstly defined to improve readout accuracy. RTQA2 films were irradiated with 6 MV X-rays at different dose levels to obtain calibration curve. To evaluate the leaf positioning accuracy in different conditions, a rhomboidal shape and a field consisting in three rectangular segments were selected. The images quantitative analysis was handled with a program developed in MATLAB to evaluate the differences between expected and measured leaves positions. The reproducibility and global uncertainty of the method were estimated to be equal to 0.5% and 0.6 mm, respectively. Moreover, a qualitative test was performed: A garden picket fence field, consisting in multiple segments 2 × 22 cm2, was realized setting known leaves shifts to test the method sensitivity. The picket fence test shows that the method is able to detect displacements equal to 1 mm. The results suggest that Gafchromic® RTQA2 films represent a reliable tool to perform MLC routine QA. PMID:24872610

  12. Accuracy of navigation-assisted acetabular component positioning studied by computed tomography measurements: methods and results.

    PubMed

    Ybinger, Thomas; Kumpan, W; Hoffart, H E; Muschalik, B; Bullmann, W; Zweymüller, K

    2007-09-01

    The postoperative position of the acetabular component is key for the outcome of total hip arthroplasty. Various aids have been developed to support the surgeon during implant placement. In a prospective study involving 4 centers, the computer-recorded cup alignment of 37 hip systems at the end of navigation-assisted surgery was compared with the cup angles measured on postoperative computerized tomograms. This comparison showed an average difference of 3.5 degrees (SD, 4.4 degrees ) for inclination and 6.5 degrees (SD, 7.3 degrees ) for anteversion angles. The differences in inclination correlated with the thickness of the soft tissue overlying the anterior superior iliac spine (r = 0.44; P = .007), whereas the differences in anteversion showed a correlation with the thickness of the soft tissue overlying the pubic tubercles (r = 0.52; P = .001). In centers experienced in the use of navigational tools, deviations were smaller than in units with little experience in their use. PMID:17826270

  13. An accuracy assessment of different rigid body image registration methods and robotic couch positional corrections using a novel phantom

    SciTech Connect

    Arumugam, Sankar; Xing Aitang; Jameson, Michael G.; Holloway, Lois

    2013-03-15

    Purpose: Image guided radiotherapy (IGRT) using cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) images greatly reduces interfractional patient positional uncertainties. An understanding of uncertainties in the IGRT process itself is essential to ensure appropriate use of this technology. The purpose of this study was to develop a phantom capable of assessing the accuracy of IGRT hardware and software including a 6 degrees of freedom patient positioning system and to investigate the accuracy of the Elekta XVI system in combination with the HexaPOD robotic treatment couch top. Methods: The constructed phantom enabled verification of the three automatic rigid body registrations (gray value, bone, seed) available in the Elekta XVI software and includes an adjustable mount that introduces known rotational offsets to the phantom from its reference position. Repeated positioning of the phantom was undertaken to assess phantom rotational accuracy. Using this phantom the accuracy of the XVI registration algorithms was assessed considering CBCT hardware factors and image resolution together with the residual error in the overall image guidance process when positional corrections were performed through the HexaPOD couch system. Results: The phantom positioning was found to be within 0.04 ({sigma}= 0.12) Degree-Sign , 0.02 ({sigma}= 0.13) Degree-Sign , and -0.03 ({sigma}= 0.06) Degree-Sign in X, Y, and Z directions, respectively, enabling assessment of IGRT with a 6 degrees of freedom patient positioning system. The gray value registration algorithm showed the least error in calculated offsets with maximum mean difference of -0.2({sigma}= 0.4) mm in translational and -0.1({sigma}= 0.1) Degree-Sign in rotational directions for all image resolutions. Bone and seed registration were found to be sensitive to CBCT image resolution. Seed registration was found to be most sensitive demonstrating a maximum mean error of -0.3({sigma}= 0.9) mm and -1.4({sigma}= 1.7) Degree-Sign in translational

  14. Classification Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency and Maze in Predicting Performance on Large-Scale Reading Assessments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Decker, Dawn M.; Hixson, Michael D.; Shaw, Amber; Johnson, Gloria

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine whether using a multiple-measure framework yielded better classification accuracy than oral reading fluency (ORF) or maze alone in predicting pass/fail rates for middle-school students on a large-scale reading assessment. Participants were 178 students in Grades 7 and 8 from a Midwestern school district.…

  15. Accuracy of positioning the cervical spine for radiation therapy and the relationship to GTV, CTV and PTV.

    PubMed

    Kippenes, Hege; Gavin, Patrick R; Sande, Ronald D; Rogers, Dennis; Sweet, Vaughn

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to evaluate the accuracy and precision of a rigid positioning device for repositioning the cervical spine accurately and precisely during conformal radiation therapy of dogs. Fifteen purpose bred research dogs in a radiation therapy study were included. The dogs were positioned using a head holder and a deflatable pillow attached to the treatment table. Port films were reviewed retrospectively, and repositioning precision was recorded by measurements in three orthogonal planes of the head, 2nd cervical vertebra and 1st thoracic spinous process. Mean treatment position was compared to the planning position for a measurement of systematic set-up error. Mean interfraction position variation of the 2nd cervical vertebra was 0.2, 0.1 and 0.2 cm for the ventrodorsal, caudocranial and laterolateral directions respectively, and the average systematic set up error was 0.2, 0.1 and 0.2 cm for the ventrodorsal, caudocranial and laterolateral directions respectively. Knowledge of the magnitude of reposition errors should be included when determining the margins around the tumor. PMID:14703256

  16. Ultrasound indoor positioning system based on a low-power wireless sensor network providing sub-centimeter accuracy.

    PubMed

    Medina, Carlos; Segura, José Carlos; De la Torre, Ángel

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the TELIAMADE system, a new indoor positioning system based on time-of-flight (TOF) of ultrasonic signal to estimate the distance between a receiver node and a transmitter node. TELIAMADE system consists of a set of wireless nodes equipped with a radio module for communication and a module for the transmission and reception of ultrasound. The access to the ultrasonic channel is managed by applying a synchronization algorithm based on a time-division multiplexing (TDMA) scheme. The ultrasonic signal is transmitted using a carrier frequency of 40 kHz and the TOF measurement is estimated by applying a quadrature detector to the signal obtained at the A/D converter output. Low sampling frequencies of 17.78 kHz or even 12.31 kHz are possible using quadrature sampling in order to optimize memory requirements and to reduce the computational cost in signal processing. The distance is calculated from the TOF taking into account the speed of sound. An excellent accuracy in the estimation of the TOF is achieved using parabolic interpolation to detect of maximum of the signal envelope at the matched filter output. The signal phase information is also used for enhancing the TOF measurement accuracy. Experimental results show a root mean square error (rmse) less than 2 mm and a standard deviation less than 0.3 mm for pseudorange measurements in the range of distances between 2 and 6 m. The system location accuracy is also evaluated by applying multilateration. A sub-centimeter location accuracy is achieved with an average rmse of 9.6 mm. PMID:23486218

  17. Ultrasound Indoor Positioning System Based on a Low-Power Wireless Sensor Network Providing Sub-Centimeter Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Medina, Carlos; Segura, José Carlos; De la Torre, Ángel

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the TELIAMADE system, a new indoor positioning system based on time-of-flight (TOF) of ultrasonic signal to estimate the distance between a receiver node and a transmitter node. TELIAMADE system consists of a set of wireless nodes equipped with a radio module for communication and a module for the transmission and reception of ultrasound. The access to the ultrasonic channel is managed by applying a synchronization algorithm based on a time-division multiplexing (TDMA) scheme. The ultrasonic signal is transmitted using a carrier frequency of 40 kHz and the TOF measurement is estimated by applying a quadrature detector to the signal obtained at the A/D converter output. Low sampling frequencies of 17.78 kHz or even 12.31 kHz are possible using quadrature sampling in order to optimize memory requirements and to reduce the computational cost in signal processing. The distance is calculated from the TOF taking into account the speed of sound. An excellent accuracy in the estimation of the TOF is achieved using parabolic interpolation to detect of maximum of the signal envelope at the matched filter output. The signal phase information is also used for enhancing the TOF measurement accuracy. Experimental results show a root mean square error (rmse) less than 2 mm and a standard deviation less than 0.3 mm for pseudorange measurements in the range of distances between 2 and 6 m. The system location accuracy is also evaluated by applying multilateration. A sub-centimeter location accuracy is achieved with an average rmse of 9.6 mm. PMID:23486218

  18. Development and application of a statistical methodology to evaluate the predictive accuracy of building energy baseline models

    SciTech Connect

    Granderson, Jessica; Price, Phillip N.

    2014-03-01

    This paper documents the development and application of a general statistical methodology to assess the accuracy of baseline energy models, focusing on its application to Measurement and Verification (M&V) of whole-­building energy savings. The methodology complements the principles addressed in resources such as ASHRAE Guideline 14 and the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol. It requires fitting a baseline model to data from a ``training period’’ and using the model to predict total electricity consumption during a subsequent ``prediction period.’’ We illustrate the methodology by evaluating five baseline models using data from 29 buildings. The training period and prediction period were varied, and model predictions of daily, weekly, and monthly energy consumption were compared to meter data to determine model accuracy. Several metrics were used to characterize the accuracy of the predictions, and in some cases the best-­performing model as judged by one metric was not the best performer when judged by another metric.

  19. The Incremental Validity of Positive Emotions in Predicting School Functioning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Ashley D.; Huebner, E. Scott; Reschly, Amy L.; Valois, Robert F.

    2009-01-01

    Proponents of positive psychology have argued for more comprehensive assessments incorporating positive measures (e.g., student strengths) as well as negative measures (e.g., psychological symptoms). However, few variable-centered studies have addressed the incremental validity of positive assessment data. The authors investigated the incremental…

  20. Predicting Likelihood of Having Four or More Positive Nodes in Patient With Sentinel Lymph Node-Positive Breast Cancer: A Nomogram Validation Study

    SciTech Connect

    Unal, Bulent; Gur, Akif Serhat; Beriwal, Sushil; Tang Gong; Johnson, Ronald; Ahrendt, Gretchen; Bonaventura, Marguerite; Soran, Atilla

    2009-11-15

    Purpose: Katz suggested a nomogram for predicting having four or more positive nodes in sentinel lymph node (SLN)-positive breast cancer patients. The findings from this formula might influence adjuvant radiotherapy decisions. Our goal was to validate the accuracy of the Katz nomogram. Methods and Materials: We reviewed the records of 309 patients with breast cancer who had undergone completion axillary lymph node dissection. The factors associated with the likelihood of having four or more positive axillary nodes were evaluated in patients with one to three positive SLNs. The nomogram developed by Katz was applied to our data set. The area under the curve of the corresponding receiver operating characteristics curve was calculated for the nomogram. Results: Of the 309 patients, 80 (25.9%) had four or more positive axillary lymph nodes. On multivariate analysis, the number of positive SLNs (p < .0001), overall metastasis size (p = .019), primary tumor size (p = .0001), and extracapsular extension (p = .01) were significant factors predicting for four or more positive nodes. For patients with <5% probability, 90.3% had fewer than four positive nodes and 9.7% had four or more positive nodes. The negative predictive value was 91.7%, and sensitivity was 80%. The nomogram was accurate and discriminating (area under the curve, .801). Conclusion: The probability of four or more involved nodes is significantly greater in patients who have an increased number of positive SLNs, increased overall metastasis size, increased tumor size, and extracapsular extension. The Katz nomogram was validated in our patients. This nomogram will be helpful to clinicians making adjuvant treatment recommendations to their patients.

  1. A novel unscented predictive filter for relative position and attitude estimation of satellite formation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cao, Lu; Chen, Xiaoqian; Misra, Arun K.

    2015-07-01

    This paper presents a novel sigma-point unscented predictive filter (UPF) for relative position and attitude estimation of satellite formation taking into account the influence of J2. A coupled relative translational dynamics model is formulated to represent orbital motion of arbitrary feature points on the deputy spacecraft, and the relative attitude motion is formulated by considering a rotational dynamics for a satellite without gyros. Based on the proposed coupled dynamic model, the UPF is developed based on unscented transformation technique, extending the capability of a traditional predictive filter (PF). The algorithm flow of the UPF is described first. Then it is demonstrated that the estimation accuracy of the model error and system state for UPF is higher than that of the traditional PF. In addition, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is also employed in order to compare the performance of the proposed UPF with that of the UKF. Several different scenarios are simulated to validate the effectiveness of the coupled dynamics model and the performance of the proposed UPF. Through comparisons, the proposed UPF is shown to yield highly accurate estimation of relative position and attitude during satellite formation flying.

  2. Age-Related Differences in the Accuracy of Web Query-Based Predictions of Influenza-Like Illness

    PubMed Central

    Domnich, Alexander; Panatto, Donatella; Signori, Alessio; Lai, Piero Luigi; Gasparini, Roberto; Amicizia, Daniela

    2015-01-01

    Background Web queries are now widely used for modeling, nowcasting and forecasting influenza-like illness (ILI). However, given that ILI attack rates vary significantly across ages, in terms of both magnitude and timing, little is known about whether the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related queries is comparable across different age-groups. The present study aimed to investigate features of the association between ILI morbidity and ILI-related query volume from the perspective of age. Methods Since Google Flu Trends is unavailable in Italy, Google Trends was used to identify entry terms that correlated highly with official ILI surveillance data. All-age and age-class-specific modeling was performed by means of linear models with generalized least-square estimation. Hold-out validation was used to quantify prediction accuracy. For purposes of comparison, predictions generated by exponential smoothing were computed. Results Five search terms showed high correlation coefficients of > .6. In comparison with exponential smoothing, the all-age query-based model correctly predicted the peak time and yielded a higher correlation coefficient with observed ILI morbidity (.978 vs. .929). However, query-based prediction of ILI morbidity was associated with a greater error. Age-class-specific query-based models varied significantly in terms of prediction accuracy. In the 0–4 and 25–44-year age-groups, these did well and outperformed exponential smoothing predictions; in the 15–24 and ≥ 65-year age-classes, however, the query-based models were inaccurate and highly overestimated peak height. In all but one age-class, peak timing predicted by the query-based models coincided with observed timing. Conclusions The accuracy of web query-based models in predicting ILI morbidity rates could differ among ages. Greater age-specific detail may be useful in flu query-based studies in order to account for age-specific features of the epidemiology of ILI. PMID:26011418

  3. Visuo-vestibular interaction: predicting the position of a visual target during passive body rotation.

    PubMed

    Mackrous, I; Simoneau, M

    2011-11-10

    Following body rotation, optimal updating of the position of a memorized target is attained when retinal error is perceived and corrective saccade is performed. Thus, it appears that these processes may enable the calibration of the vestibular system by facilitating the sharing of information between both reference frames. Here, it is assessed whether having sensory information regarding body rotation in the target reference frame could enhance an individual's learning rate to predict the position of an earth-fixed target. During rotation, participants had to respond when they felt their body midline had crossed the position of the target and received knowledge of result. During practice blocks, for two groups, visual cues were displayed in the same reference frame of the target, whereas a third group relied on vestibular information (vestibular-only group) to predict the location of the target. Participants, unaware of the role of the visual cues (visual cues group), learned to predict the location of the target and spatial error decreased from 16.2 to 2.0°, reflecting a learning rate of 34.08 trials (determined from fitting a falling exponential model). In contrast, the group aware of the role of the visual cues (explicit visual cues group) showed a faster learning rate (i.e. 2.66 trials) but similar final spatial error 2.9°. For the vestibular-only group, similar accuracy was achieved (final spatial error of 2.3°), but their learning rate was much slower (i.e. 43.29 trials). Transferring to the Post-test (no visual cues and no knowledge of result) increased the spatial error of the explicit visual cues group (9.5°), but it did not change the performance of the vestibular group (1.2°). Overall, these results imply that cognition assists the brain in processing the sensory information within the target reference frame.

  4. High-Accuracy Self-Calibration for Smart, Optical Orbiting Payloads Integrated with Attitude and Position Determination.

    PubMed

    Li, Jin; Xing, Fei; Chu, Daping; Liu, Zilong

    2016-01-01

    A high-accuracy space smart payload integrated with attitude and position (SSPIAP) is a new type of optical remote sensor that can autonomously complete image positioning. Inner orientation parameters (IOPs) are a prerequisite for image position determination of an SSPIAP. The calibration of IOPs significantly influences the precision of image position determination of SSPIAPs. IOPs can be precisely measured and calibrated in a laboratory. However, they may drift to a significant degree because of vibrations during complicated launches and on-orbit functioning. Therefore, laboratory calibration methods are not suitable for on-orbit functioning. We propose an on-orbit self-calibration method for SSPIAPs. Our method is based on an auto-collimating dichroic filter combined with a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) point-source focal plane. A MEMS procedure is used to manufacture a light transceiver focal plane, which integrates with point light sources and a complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) sensor. A dichroic filter is used to fabricate an auto-collimation light reflection element. The dichroic filter and the MEMS point light sources focal plane are integrated into an SSPIAP so it can perform integrated self-calibration. Experiments show that our method can achieve micrometer-level precision, which is good enough to complete real-time calibration without temporal or spatial limitations. PMID:27472339

  5. High-Accuracy Self-Calibration for Smart, Optical Orbiting Payloads Integrated with Attitude and Position Determination

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jin; Xing, Fei; Chu, Daping; Liu, Zilong

    2016-01-01

    A high-accuracy space smart payload integrated with attitude and position (SSPIAP) is a new type of optical remote sensor that can autonomously complete image positioning. Inner orientation parameters (IOPs) are a prerequisite for image position determination of an SSPIAP. The calibration of IOPs significantly influences the precision of image position determination of SSPIAPs. IOPs can be precisely measured and calibrated in a laboratory. However, they may drift to a significant degree because of vibrations during complicated launches and on-orbit functioning. Therefore, laboratory calibration methods are not suitable for on-orbit functioning. We propose an on-orbit self-calibration method for SSPIAPs. Our method is based on an auto-collimating dichroic filter combined with a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) point-source focal plane. A MEMS procedure is used to manufacture a light transceiver focal plane, which integrates with point light sources and a complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) sensor. A dichroic filter is used to fabricate an auto-collimation light reflection element. The dichroic filter and the MEMS point light sources focal plane are integrated into an SSPIAP so it can perform integrated self-calibration. Experiments show that our method can achieve micrometer-level precision, which is good enough to complete real-time calibration without temporal or spatial limitations. PMID:27472339

  6. High-Accuracy Self-Calibration for Smart, Optical Orbiting Payloads Integrated with Attitude and Position Determination.

    PubMed

    Li, Jin; Xing, Fei; Chu, Daping; Liu, Zilong

    2016-01-01

    A high-accuracy space smart payload integrated with attitude and position (SSPIAP) is a new type of optical remote sensor that can autonomously complete image positioning. Inner orientation parameters (IOPs) are a prerequisite for image position determination of an SSPIAP. The calibration of IOPs significantly influences the precision of image position determination of SSPIAPs. IOPs can be precisely measured and calibrated in a laboratory. However, they may drift to a significant degree because of vibrations during complicated launches and on-orbit functioning. Therefore, laboratory calibration methods are not suitable for on-orbit functioning. We propose an on-orbit self-calibration method for SSPIAPs. Our method is based on an auto-collimating dichroic filter combined with a micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) point-source focal plane. A MEMS procedure is used to manufacture a light transceiver focal plane, which integrates with point light sources and a complementary metal oxide semiconductor (CMOS) sensor. A dichroic filter is used to fabricate an auto-collimation light reflection element. The dichroic filter and the MEMS point light sources focal plane are integrated into an SSPIAP so it can perform integrated self-calibration. Experiments show that our method can achieve micrometer-level precision, which is good enough to complete real-time calibration without temporal or spatial limitations.

  7. Accuracy of CT cerebral perfusion in predicting infarct in the emergency department: lesion characterization on CT perfusion based on commercially available software.

    PubMed

    Ho, Chang Y; Hussain, Sajjad; Alam, Tariq; Ahmad, Iftikhar; Wu, Isaac C; O'Neill, Darren P

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to assess the diagnostic accuracy of a single vendor commercially available CT perfusion (CTP) software in predicting stroke. A retrospective analysis on patients presenting with stroke-like symptoms within 6 h with CTP and diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) was performed. Lesion maps, which overlays areas of computer-detected abnormally elevated mean transit time (MTT) and decreased cerebral blood volume (CBV), were assessed from a commercially available software package and compared to qualitative interpretation of color maps. Using DWI as the gold standard, parameters of diagnostic accuracy were calculated. Point biserial correlation was performed to assess for relationship of lesion size to a true positive result. Sixty-five patients (41 females and 24 males, age range 22-92 years, mean 57) were included in the study. Twenty-two (34 %) had infarcts on DWI. Sensitivity (83 vs. 70 %), specificity (21 vs. 69 %), negative predictive value (77 vs. 84 %), and positive predictive value (29 vs. 50 %) for lesion maps were contrasted to qualitative interpretation of perfusion color maps, respectively. By using the lesion maps to exclude lesions detected qualitatively on color maps, specificity improved (80 %). Point biserial correlation for computer-generated lesions (R pb = 0.46, p < 0.0001) and lesions detected qualitatively (R pb = 0.32, p = 0.0016) demonstrated positive correlation between size and infarction. Seventy-three percent (p = 0.018) of lesions which demonstrated an increasing size from CBV, cerebral blood flow, to MTT/time to peak were true positive. Used in isolation, computer-generated lesion maps in CTP provide limited diagnostic utility in predicting infarct, due to their inherently low specificity. However, when used in conjunction with qualitative perfusion color map assessment, the lesion maps can help improve specificity.

  8. Evaluation of MLC leaf positioning accuracy for static and dynamic IMRT treatments using DAVID in vivo dosimetric system.

    PubMed

    Karagoz, Gulay; Zorlu, Faruk; Yeginer, Mete; Yildiz, Demet; Ozyigit, Gokhan

    2016-01-01

    Accuracy and precision of leaf positioning in multileaf collimators (MLCs) are significant factors for the accuracy of IMRT treatments. This study aimed to inves-tigate the accuracy and repeatability of the MLC leaf positioning via the DAVID invivo dosimetric system for dynamic and static MLC systems. The DAVID system was designed as multiwire transmission ionization chamber which is placed in accessory holder of linear accelerators. Each wire of DAVID system corresponds to a MLC leaf-pair to verify the leaf positioning accuracy during IMRT treatment and QA. In this study, verifications of IMRT plans of five head and neck (H&N) and five prostate patients treated in a Varian DHX linear accelerator with 80-leaf MLC were performed using DAVID system. Before DAVID-based dosimetry, Electronics Portal Imaging Device (EPID) and PTW 2D ARRAY dosimetry system were used for 2D verification of each plan. The measurements taken by DAVID system in the first day of the treatments were used as reference for the following measurements taken over the next four weeks. The deviations in leaf positioning were evaluated by "Total Deviation (TD)" parameter calculated by DAVID software. The delivered IMRT plans were originally prepared using dynamic MLC method. The same plans were subsequently calculated based on static MLC method with three different intensity levels of five (IL5), 10 (IL10) and 20 (IL20) in order to compare the performances of MLC leaf positioning repeatability for dynamic and static IMRT plans. The leaf positioning accuracy is also evaluated by analyzing DynaLog files based on error histograms and root mean square (RMS) errors of leaf pairs' positions. Moreover, a correlation analysis between simultaneously taken DAVID and EPID measurements and DynaLog file recordings was subsequently performed. In the analysis of DAVID outputs, the overall deviations of dynamic MLC-based IMRT calculated from the deviations of the four weeks were found as 0.55% ± 0.57% and 1.48% ± 0

  9. Evaluation of MLC leaf positioning accuracy for static and dynamic IMRT treatments using DAVID in vivo dosimetric system.

    PubMed

    Karagoz, Gulay; Zorlu, Faruk; Yeginer, Mete; Yildiz, Demet; Ozyigit, Gokhan

    2016-03-08

    Accuracy and precision of leaf positioning in multileaf collimators (MLCs) are significant factors for the accuracy of IMRT treatments. This study aimed to inves-tigate the accuracy and repeatability of the MLC leaf positioning via the DAVID invivo dosimetric system for dynamic and static MLC systems. The DAVID system was designed as multiwire transmission ionization chamber which is placed in accessory holder of linear accelerators. Each wire of DAVID system corresponds to a MLC leaf-pair to verify the leaf positioning accuracy during IMRT treatment and QA. In this study, verifications of IMRT plans of five head and neck (H&N) and five prostate patients treated in a Varian DHX linear accelerator with 80-leaf MLC were performed using DAVID system. Before DAVID-based dosimetry, Electronics Portal Imaging Device (EPID) and PTW 2D ARRAY dosimetry system were used for 2D verification of each plan. The measurements taken by DAVID system in the first day of the treatments were used as reference for the following measurements taken over the next four weeks. The deviations in leaf positioning were evaluated by "Total Deviation (TD)" parameter calculated by DAVID software. The delivered IMRT plans were originally prepared using dynamic MLC method. The same plans were subsequently calculated based on static MLC method with three different intensity levels of five (IL5), 10 (IL10) and 20 (IL20) in order to compare the performances of MLC leaf positioning repeatability for dynamic and static IMRT plans. The leaf positioning accuracy is also evaluated by analyzing DynaLog files based on error histograms and root mean square (RMS) errors of leaf pairs' positions. Moreover, a correlation analysis between simultaneously taken DAVID and EPID measurements and DynaLog file recordings was subsequently performed. In the analysis of DAVID outputs, the overall deviations of dynamic MLC-based IMRT calculated from the deviations of the four weeks were found as 0.55% ± 0.57% and 1.48% ± 0

  10. Geopositioning accuracy prediction results for registration of imaging and nonimaging sensors using moving objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Charles R.; Dolloff, John T.; Lofy, Brian A.; Luker, Steve A.

    2003-08-01

    BAE SYSTEMS is developing a "4D Registration" capability for DARPA's Dynamic Tactical Targeting program. This will further advance our automatic image registration capability to use moving objects for image registration, and extend our current capability to include the registration of non-imaging sensors. Moving objects produce signals that are identifiable across multiple sensors such as radar moving target indicators, unattended ground sensors, and imaging sensors. Correspondences of those signals across sensor types make it possible to improve the support data accuracy for each of the sensors involved in the correspondence. The amount of accuracy improvement possible, and the effects of the accuracy improvement on geopositioning with the sensors, is a complex problem. The main factors that contribute to the complexity are the sensor-to-target geometry, the a priori sensor support data accuracy, sensor measurement accuracy, the distribution of identified objects in ground space, and the motion and motion uncertainty of the identified objects. As part of the 4D Registration effort, BAE SYSTEMS is conducting a sensitivity study to investigate the complexities and benefits of multisensor registration with moving objects. The results of the study will be summarized.

  11. Assessing the accuracy of software predictions of mammalian and microbial metabolites

    EPA Science Inventory

    New chemical development and hazard assessments benefit from accurate predictions of mammalian and microbial metabolites. Fourteen biotransformation libraries encoded in eight software packages that predict metabolite structures were assessed for their sensitivity (proportion of ...

  12. Estimation of accuracies and expected genetic change from selection for selection indexes that use multiple-trait predictions of breeding values.

    PubMed

    Barwick, S A; Tier, B; Swan, A A; Henzell, A L

    2013-10-01

    Procedures are described for estimating selection index accuracies for individual animals and expected genetic change from selection for the general case where indexes of EBVs predict an aggregate breeding objective of traits that may or may not have been measured. Index accuracies for the breeding objective are shown to take an important general form, being able to be expressed as the product of the accuracy of the index function of true breeding values and the accuracy with which that function predicts the breeding objective. When the accuracies of the individual EBVs of the index are known, prediction error variances (PEVs) and covariances (PECs) for the EBVs within animal are able to be well approximated, and index accuracies and expected genetic change from selection estimated with high accuracy. The procedures are suited to routine use in estimating index accuracies in genetic evaluation, and for providing important information, without additional modelling, on the directions in which a population will move under selection.

  13. Improving the accuracy of computed 13C NMR shift predictions by specific environment error correction: fragment referencing.

    PubMed

    Andrews, Keith G; Spivey, Alan C

    2013-11-15

    The accuracy of both Gauge-including atomic orbital (GIAO) and continuous set of gauge transformations (CSGT) (13)C NMR spectra prediction by Density Functional Theory (DFT) at the B3LYP/6-31G** level is shown to be usefully enhanced by employing a 'fragment referencing' method for predicting chemical shifts without recourse to empirical scaling. Fragment referencing refers to a process of reducing the error in calculating a particular NMR shift by consulting a similar molecule for which the error in the calculation is easily deduced. The absolute accuracy of the chemical shifts predicted when employing fragment referencing relative to conventional techniques (e.g., using TMS or MeOH/benzene dual referencing) is demonstrated to be improved significantly for a range of substrates, which illustrates the superiority of the technique particularly for systems with similar chemical shifts arising from different chemical environments. The technique is particularly suited to molecules of relatively low molecular weight containing 'non-standard' magnetic environments, e.g., α to halogen atoms, which are poorly predicted by other methods. The simplicity and speed of the technique mean that it can be employed to resolve routine structural assignment problems that require a degree of accuracy not provided by standard incremental or hierarchically ordered spherical description of environment (HOSE) algorithms. The approach is also demonstrated to be applicable when employing the MP2 method at 6-31G**, cc-pVDZ, aug-cc-pVDZ, and cc-pVTZ levels, although none of these offer advantage in terms of accuracy of prediction over the B3LYP/6-31G** DFT method.

  14. Predicting behaviour from perceived behavioural control: tests of the accuracy assumption of the theory of planned behaviour.

    PubMed

    Sheeran, Paschal; Trafimow, David; Armitage, Christopher J

    2003-09-01

    The theory of planned behaviour assumes that the accuracy of perceived behavioural control (PBC) determines the strength of the PBC-behaviour relationship. However, this assumption has never been formally tested. The present research developed and validated a proxy measure of actual control (PMAC) in order to test the assumption. In two studies, participants completed measures of intention and PBC, and subsequently completed measures of behaviour and the PMAC. Validity of the PMAC was established by findings showing; (a). that the PMAC moderated the intention-behaviour relation, and (b). that PMAC scores did not reflect attributions for participants' failure to enact their stated intentions. Accuracy was operationalized as the difference between PBC and PMAC scores. Consistent with theoretical expectations, several analyses indicated that greater accuracy of PBC was associated with improved prediction of behaviour by PBC. PMID:14567844

  15. Optimization of the Coverage and Accuracy of an Indoor Positioning System with a Variable Number of Sensors.

    PubMed

    Domingo-Perez, Francisco; Lazaro-Galilea, Jose Luis; Bravo, Ignacio; Gardel, Alfredo; Rodriguez, David

    2016-06-22

    This paper focuses on optimal sensor deployment for indoor localization with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Our goal is to obtain an algorithm to deploy sensors taking the number of sensors, accuracy and coverage into account. Contrary to most works in the literature, we consider the presence of obstacles in the region of interest (ROI) that can cause occlusions between the target and some sensors. In addition, we aim to obtain all of the Pareto optimal solutions regarding the number of sensors, coverage and accuracy. To deal with a variable number of sensors, we add speciation and structural mutations to the well-known non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). Speciation allows one to keep the evolution of sensor sets under control and to apply genetic operators to them so that they compete with other sets of the same size. We show some case studies of the sensor placement of an infrared range-difference indoor positioning system with a fairly complex model of the error of the measurements. The results obtained by our algorithm are compared to sensor placement patterns obtained with random deployment to highlight the relevance of using such a deployment algorithm.

  16. Optimization of the Coverage and Accuracy of an Indoor Positioning System with a Variable Number of Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Domingo-Perez, Francisco; Lazaro-Galilea, Jose Luis; Bravo, Ignacio; Gardel, Alfredo; Rodriguez, David

    2016-01-01

    This paper focuses on optimal sensor deployment for indoor localization with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm. Our goal is to obtain an algorithm to deploy sensors taking the number of sensors, accuracy and coverage into account. Contrary to most works in the literature, we consider the presence of obstacles in the region of interest (ROI) that can cause occlusions between the target and some sensors. In addition, we aim to obtain all of the Pareto optimal solutions regarding the number of sensors, coverage and accuracy. To deal with a variable number of sensors, we add speciation and structural mutations to the well-known non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II). Speciation allows one to keep the evolution of sensor sets under control and to apply genetic operators to them so that they compete with other sets of the same size. We show some case studies of the sensor placement of an infrared range-difference indoor positioning system with a fairly complex model of the error of the measurements. The results obtained by our algorithm are compared to sensor placement patterns obtained with random deployment to highlight the relevance of using such a deployment algorithm. PMID:27338414

  17. Pitfalls at the root of facial assessment on photographs: a quantitative study of accuracy in positioning facial landmarks.

    PubMed

    Cummaudo, M; Guerzoni, M; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cigada, A; Obertovà, Z; Ratnayake, M; Poppa, P; Gabriel, P; Ritz-Timme, S; Cattaneo, C

    2013-05-01

    In the last years, facial analysis has gained great interest also for forensic anthropology. The application of facial landmarks may bring about relevant advantages for the analysis of 2D images by measuring distances and extracting quantitative indices. However, this is a complex task which depends upon the variability in positioning facial landmarks. In addition, literature provides only general indications concerning the reliability in positioning facial landmarks on photographic material, and no study is available concerning the specific errors which may be encountered in such an operation. The aim of this study is to analyze the inter- and intra-observer error in defining facial landmarks on photographs by using a software specifically developed for this purpose. Twenty-four operators were requested to define 22 facial landmarks on frontal view photographs and 11 on lateral view images; in addition, three operators repeated the procedure on the same photographs 20 times (at distance of 24 h). In the frontal view, the landmarks with less dispersion were the pupil, cheilion, endocanthion, and stomion (sto), and the landmarks with the highest dispersion were gonion, zygion, frontotemporale, tragion, and selion (se). In the lateral view, the landmarks with the least dispersion were se, pronasale, subnasale, and sto, whereas landmarks with the highest dispersion were gnathion, pogonion, and tragion. Results confirm that few anatomical points can be defined with the highest accuracy and show the importance of the preliminary investigation of reliability in positioning facial landmarks. PMID:23515681

  18. Pitfalls at the root of facial assessment on photographs: a quantitative study of accuracy in positioning facial landmarks.

    PubMed

    Cummaudo, M; Guerzoni, M; Marasciuolo, L; Gibelli, D; Cigada, A; Obertovà, Z; Ratnayake, M; Poppa, P; Gabriel, P; Ritz-Timme, S; Cattaneo, C

    2013-05-01

    In the last years, facial analysis has gained great interest also for forensic anthropology. The application of facial landmarks may bring about relevant advantages for the analysis of 2D images by measuring distances and extracting quantitative indices. However, this is a complex task which depends upon the variability in positioning facial landmarks. In addition, literature provides only general indications concerning the reliability in positioning facial landmarks on photographic material, and no study is available concerning the specific errors which may be encountered in such an operation. The aim of this study is to analyze the inter- and intra-observer error in defining facial landmarks on photographs by using a software specifically developed for this purpose. Twenty-four operators were requested to define 22 facial landmarks on frontal view photographs and 11 on lateral view images; in addition, three operators repeated the procedure on the same photographs 20 times (at distance of 24 h). In the frontal view, the landmarks with less dispersion were the pupil, cheilion, endocanthion, and stomion (sto), and the landmarks with the highest dispersion were gonion, zygion, frontotemporale, tragion, and selion (se). In the lateral view, the landmarks with the least dispersion were se, pronasale, subnasale, and sto, whereas landmarks with the highest dispersion were gnathion, pogonion, and tragion. Results confirm that few anatomical points can be defined with the highest accuracy and show the importance of the preliminary investigation of reliability in positioning facial landmarks.

  19. Accuracy of an automatic patient-positioning system based on the correlation of two edge images in radiotherapy.

    PubMed

    Yoon, Myonggeun; Cheong, Minho; Kim, Jinsung; Shin, Dong Ho; Park, Sung Yong; Lee, Se Byeong

    2011-04-01

    We have clinically evaluated the accuracy of an automatic patient-positioning system based on the image correlation of two edge images in radiotherapy. Ninety-six head & neck images from eight patients undergoing proton therapy were compared with a digitally reconstructed radiograph (DRR) of planning CT. Two edge images, a reference image and a test image, were extracted by applying a Canny edge detector algorithm to a DRR and a 2D X-ray image, respectively, of each patient before positioning. In a simulation using a humanoid phantom, performed to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method, no registration errors were observed for given ranges of rotation, pitch, and translation in the x, y, and z directions. For real patients, however, there were discrepancies between the automatic positioning method and manual positioning by physicians or technicians. Using edged head coronal- and sagittal-view images, the average differences in registration between these two methods for the x, y, and z directions were 0.11 cm, 0.09 cm and 0.11 cm, respectively, whereas the maximum discrepancies were 0.34 cm, 0.38 cm, and 0.50 cm, respectively. For rotation and pitch, the average registration errors were 0.95° and 1.00°, respectively, and the maximum errors were 3.6° and 2.3°, respectively. The proposed automatic patient-positioning system based on edge image comparison was relatively accurate for head and neck patients. However, image deformation during treatment may render the automatic method less accurate, since the test image many differ significantly from the reference image.

  20. Positioning System Accuracy Assessment for the Runway Incursion Prevention System Flight Test at the Dallas/Ft. Worth International Airport

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Quach, Cuong C.

    2004-01-01

    NASA/Langley Research Center collaborated with the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to test a Runway Incursion Prevention System (RIPS) at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport (DFW) in October 2000. The RIPS combines airborne and ground sensor data with various cockpit displays to improve pilots' awareness of traffic conditions on the airport surface. The systems tested at DFW involved surface radar and data systems that gather and send surface traffic information to a research aircraft outfitted with the RIPS software, cockpit displays, and data link transceivers. The data sent to the airborne systems contained identification and GPS location of traffic. This information was compared with the own-ship location from airborne GPS receivers to generate incursion alerts. A total of 93 test tracks were flown while operating RIPS. This report compares the accuracy of the airborne GPS systems that gave the own-ship position of the research aircraft for the 93 test tracks.

  1. Maternal Accuracy in Predicting Toddlers' Behaviors and Associations with Toddlers' Fearful Temperament

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Buss, Kristin A.

    2006-01-01

    Past research provides associations between maternal parenting behaviors and characteristics such as depression and toddlers' fearful temperament. Less is known about how maternal cognitive characteristics and normal personality relate to fearful temperament. This study examined associations among the maternal cognitive characteristic of accuracy,…

  2. An Accuracy--Response Time Capacity Assessment Function that Measures Performance against Standard Parallel Predictions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Townsend, James T.; Altieri, Nicholas

    2012-01-01

    Measures of human efficiency under increases in mental workload or attentional limitations are vital in studying human perception, cognition, and action. Assays of efficiency as workload changes have typically been confined to either reaction times (RTs) or accuracy alone. Within the realm of RTs, a nonparametric measure called the "workload…

  3. Predicting the Accuracy of Facial Affect Recognition: The Interaction of Child Maltreatment and Intellectual Functioning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shenk, Chad E.; Putnam, Frank W.; Noll, Jennie G.

    2013-01-01

    Previous research demonstrates that both child maltreatment and intellectual performance contribute uniquely to the accurate identification of facial affect by children and adolescents. The purpose of this study was to extend this research by examining whether child maltreatment affects the accuracy of facial recognition differently at varying…

  4. Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes.

    PubMed

    Sammis, C G; Sornette, D

    2002-02-19

    We review the "critical point" concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called "finite-time singularities." The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress.

  5. Positive feedback, memory, and the predictability of earthquakes

    PubMed Central

    Sammis, C. G.; Sornette, D.

    2002-01-01

    We review the “critical point” concept for large earthquakes and enlarge it in the framework of so-called “finite-time singularities.” The singular behavior associated with accelerated seismic release is shown to result from a positive feedback of the seismic activity on its release rate. The most important mechanisms for such positive feedback are presented. We solve analytically a simple model of geometrical positive feedback in which the stress shadow cast by the last large earthquake is progressively fragmented by the increasing tectonic stress. PMID:11875202

  6. A consensus approach for estimating the predictive accuracy of dynamic models in biology.

    PubMed

    Villaverde, Alejandro F; Bongard, Sophia; Mauch, Klaus; Müller, Dirk; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Schmid, Joachim; Banga, Julio R

    2015-04-01

    Mathematical models that predict the complex dynamic behaviour of cellular networks are fundamental in systems biology, and provide an important basis for biomedical and biotechnological applications. However, obtaining reliable predictions from large-scale dynamic models is commonly a challenging task due to lack of identifiability. The present work addresses this challenge by presenting a methodology for obtaining high-confidence predictions from dynamic models using time-series data. First, to preserve the complex behaviour of the network while reducing the number of estimated parameters, model parameters are combined in sets of meta-parameters, which are obtained from correlations between biochemical reaction rates and between concentrations of the chemical species. Next, an ensemble of models with different parameterizations is constructed and calibrated. Finally, the ensemble is used for assessing the reliability of model predictions by defining a measure of convergence of model outputs (consensus) that is used as an indicator of confidence. We report results of computational tests carried out on a metabolic model of Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells, which are used for recombinant protein production. Using noisy simulated data, we find that the aggregated ensemble predictions are on average more accurate than the predictions of individual ensemble models. Furthermore, ensemble predictions with high consensus are statistically more accurate than ensemble predictions with large variance. The procedure provides quantitative estimates of the confidence in model predictions and enables the analysis of sufficiently complex networks as required for practical applications. PMID:25716416

  7. A consensus approach for estimating the predictive accuracy of dynamic models in biology.

    PubMed

    Villaverde, Alejandro F; Bongard, Sophia; Mauch, Klaus; Müller, Dirk; Balsa-Canto, Eva; Schmid, Joachim; Banga, Julio R

    2015-04-01

    Mathematical models that predict the complex dynamic behaviour of cellular networks are fundamental in systems biology, and provide an important basis for biomedical and biotechnological applications. However, obtaining reliable predictions from large-scale dynamic models is commonly a challenging task due to lack of identifiability. The present work addresses this challenge by presenting a methodology for obtaining high-confidence predictions from dynamic models using time-series data. First, to preserve the complex behaviour of the network while reducing the number of estimated parameters, model parameters are combined in sets of meta-parameters, which are obtained from correlations between biochemical reaction rates and between concentrations of the chemical species. Next, an ensemble of models with different parameterizations is constructed and calibrated. Finally, the ensemble is used for assessing the reliability of model predictions by defining a measure of convergence of model outputs (consensus) that is used as an indicator of confidence. We report results of computational tests carried out on a metabolic model of Chinese Hamster Ovary (CHO) cells, which are used for recombinant protein production. Using noisy simulated data, we find that the aggregated ensemble predictions are on average more accurate than the predictions of individual ensemble models. Furthermore, ensemble predictions with high consensus are statistically more accurate than ensemble predictions with large variance. The procedure provides quantitative estimates of the confidence in model predictions and enables the analysis of sufficiently complex networks as required for practical applications.

  8. Positive and negative emotional contexts unevenly predict episodic memory.

    PubMed

    Martínez-Galindo, Joyce Graciela; Cansino, Selene

    2015-09-15

    The aim of this study was to investigate whether the recognition of faces with neutral expressions differs when they are encoded under different emotional contexts (positive, negative or non-emotional). The effects of the emotional valence context on the subsequent memory effect (SME) and the autonomic responses were also examined. Twenty-eight participants performed a betting-game task in which the faces of their virtual opponents were presented in each trial. The probability of winning or losing was manipulated to generate positive or negative contexts, respectively. Additionally, the participants performed the same task without betting as a non-emotional condition. After the encoding phase, an old/new paradigm was performed for the faces of the virtual opponents. The recognition was superior for the faces encoded in the positive contexts than for the faces encoded in the non-emotional contexts. The skin conductance response amplitude was equivalent for both of the emotional contexts. The N170 and P300 components at occipital sites and the frontal slow wave manifested SMEs that were modulated by positive contexts; neither negative nor non-emotional contexts influenced these effects. The behavioral and neurophysiological data demonstrated that positive contexts are stronger predictors of episodic memory than negative or non-emotional contexts. PMID:26003944

  9. The Diagnostic Accuracy and Clinical Utility of Three Noninvasive Models for Predicting Liver Fibrosis in Patients with HBV Infection

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhiqiao; Wang, Gongsui; Kang, Kaifu; Wu, Guobiao; Wang, Peng

    2016-01-01

    Aim To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and clinical utility of the fibrosis index based on the four factors (FIB-4), aspartate aminotransferase -to-platelet ratio index (APRI), and aspartate aminotransferase–alanine aminotransferase ratio index (AAR) for predicting liver fibrosis in patients with HBV infection. Methods From January 2006 to December 2010,a total of 1543 consecutive chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients who underwent liver biopsies were enrolled. FIB-4,APRI, and AAR were calculated.The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were calculated to assess the diagnostic accuracy of these models.The AUROCs of these models were compared by DeLong’s test.For further comparisons in different studies,the AUROCs were adjusted to conduct Adjusted AUROCs(ADjAUROCs) according to the prevalence of fibrosis stages using the difference between advanced and nonadvanced fibrosis (DANA). Results For prediction of significant fibrosis,severe fibrosis,and cirrhosis,the AUROCs of FIB-4 were 0.646(ADjAUROC 0.717),0.670(ADjAUROC 0.741), and 0.715(ADjAUROC 0.786) respectively;whereas it were 0.656(ADjAUROC 0.727),0.653(ADjAUROC 0.724) and 0.639(ADjAUROC 0.710) for APRI, 0.498(ADjAUROC 0.569),0.548(ADjAUROC 0.619) and 0.573(ADjAUROC 0.644) for AAR. The further comparisons demonstrated that there were no significant differences of AUROCs between FIB-4 and APRI in predicting significant and severe fibrosis(P > 0.05),while FIB-4 was superior to APRI in predicting cirrhosis(P < 0.001). Further subgroup analysis demonstrated that the diagnostic accuracy of FIB-4 and APRI in patients with normal alanine aminotransferase(ALT) were higher than that in patients with elevated ALT. Conclusions The results demonstrated that FIB-4 and APRI are useful for diagnosis of fibrosis. FIB-4 and APRI have similar diagnostic accuracy in predicting significant and severe fibrosis,while FIB-4 is superior to APRI in predicting cirrhosis. The clinical utility of FIB-4 and APRI

  10. Computer-assisted orthognathic surgery: waferless maxillary positioning, versatility, and accuracy of an image-guided visualisation display.

    PubMed

    Zinser, Max J; Mischkowski, Robert A; Dreiseidler, Timo; Thamm, Oliver C; Rothamel, Daniel; Zöller, Joachim E

    2013-12-01

    There may well be a shift towards 3-dimensional orthognathic surgery when virtual surgical planning can be applied clinically. We present a computer-assisted protocol that uses surgical navigation supplemented by an interactive image-guided visualisation display (IGVD) to transfer virtual maxillary planning precisely. The aim of this study was to analyse its accuracy and versatility in vivo. The protocol consists of maxillofacial imaging, diagnosis, planning of virtual treatment, and intraoperative surgical transfer using an IGV display. The advantage of the interactive IGV display is that the virtually planned maxilla and its real position can be completely superimposed during operation through a video graphics array (VGA) camera, thereby augmenting the surgeon's 3-dimensional perception. Sixteen adult class III patients were treated with by bimaxillary osteotomy. Seven hard tissue variables were chosen to compare (ΔT1-T0) the virtual maxillary planning (T0) with the postoperative result (T1) using 3-dimensional cephalometry. Clinically acceptable precision for the surgical planning transfer of the maxilla (<0.35 mm) was seen in the anteroposterior and mediolateral angles, and in relation to the skull base (<0.35°), and marginal precision was seen in the orthogonal dimension (<0.64 mm). An interactive IGV display complemented surgical navigation, augmented virtual and real-time reality, and provided a precise technique of waferless stereotactic maxillary positioning, which may offer an alternative approach to the use of arbitrary splints and 2-dimensional orthognathic planning.

  11. Single-frequency receivers as master permanent stations in GNSS networks: precision and accuracy of the positioning in mixed networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dabove, Paolo; Manzino, Ambrogio Maria

    2015-04-01

    The use of GPS/GNSS instruments is a common practice in the world at both a commercial and academic research level. Since last ten years, Continuous Operating Reference Stations (CORSs) networks were born in order to achieve the possibility to extend a precise positioning more than 15 km far from the master station. In this context, the Geomatics Research Group of DIATI at the Politecnico di Torino has carried out several experiments in order to evaluate the achievable precision obtainable with different GNSS receivers (geodetic and mass-market) and antennas if a CORSs network is considered. This work starts from the research above described, in particular focusing the attention on the usefulness of single frequency permanent stations in order to thicken the existing CORSs, especially for monitoring purposes. Two different types of CORSs network are available today in Italy: the first one is the so called "regional network" and the second one is the "national network", where the mean inter-station distances are about 25/30 and 50/70 km respectively. These distances are useful for many applications (e.g. mobile mapping) if geodetic instruments are considered but become less useful if mass-market instruments are used or if the inter-station distance between master and rover increases. In this context, some innovative GNSS networks were developed and tested, analyzing the performance of rover's positioning in terms of quality, accuracy and reliability both in real-time and post-processing approach. The use of single frequency GNSS receivers leads to have some limits, especially due to a limited baseline length, the possibility to obtain a correct fixing of the phase ambiguity for the network and to fix the phase ambiguity correctly also for the rover. These factors play a crucial role in order to reach a positioning with a good level of accuracy (as centimetric o better) in a short time and with an high reliability. The goal of this work is to investigate about the

  12. Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

    1985-01-01

    This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

  13. A technique to improve the accuracy of Earth orientation prediction algorithms based on least squares extrapolation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guo, J. Y.; Li, Y. B.; Dai, C. L.; Shum, C. K.

    2013-10-01

    We present a technique to improve the least squares (LS) extrapolation of Earth orientation parameters (EOPs), consisting of fixing the last observed data point on the LS extrapolation curve, which customarily includes a polynomial and a few sinusoids. For the polar motion (PM), a more sophisticated two steps approach has been developed, which consists of estimating the amplitude of the more stable one of the annual (AW) and Chandler (CW) wobbles using data of longer time span, and then estimating the other parameters using a shorter time span. The technique is studied using hindcast experiments, and justified using year-by-year statistics of 8 years. In order to compare with the official predictions of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) performed at the U.S. Navy Observatory (USNO), we have enforced short-term predictions by applying the ARIMA method to the residuals computed by subtracting the LS extrapolation curve from the observation data. The same as at USNO, we have also used atmospheric excitation function (AEF) to further improve predictions of UT1-UTC. As results, our short-term predictions are comparable to the USNO predictions, and our long-term predictions are marginally better, although not for every year. In addition, we have tested the use of AEF and oceanic excitation function (OEF) in PM prediction. We find that use of forecasts of AEF alone does not lead to any apparent improvement or worsening, while use of forecasts of AEF + OEF does lead to apparent improvement.

  14. Accuracy of genomic predictions for feed efficiency traits of beef cattle using 50K and imputed HD genotypes.

    PubMed

    Lu, D; Akanno, E C; Crowley, J J; Schenkel, F; Li, H; De Pauw, M; Moore, S S; Wang, Z; Li, C; Stothard, P; Plastow, G; Miller, S P; Basarab, J A

    2016-04-01

    The accuracy of genomic predictions can be used to assess the utility of dense marker genotypes for genetic improvement of beef efficiency traits. This study was designed to test the impact of genomic distance between training and validation populations, training population size, statistical methods, and density of genetic markers on prediction accuracy for feed efficiency traits in multibreed and crossbred beef cattle. A total of 6,794 beef cattle data collated from various projects and research herds across Canada were used. Illumina BovineSNP50 (50K) and imputed Axiom Genome-Wide BOS 1 Array (HD) genotypes were available for all animals. The traits studied were DMI, ADG, and residual feed intake (RFI). Four validation groups of 150 animals each, including Angus (AN), Charolais (CH), Angus-Hereford crosses (ANHH), and a Charolais-based composite (TX) were created by considering the genomic distance between pairs of individuals in the validation groups. Each validation group had 7 corresponding training groups of increasing sizes ( = 1,000, 1,999, 2,999, 3,999, 4,999, 5,998, and 6,644), which also represent increasing average genomic distance between pairs of individuals in the training and validations groups. Prediction of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) was performed using genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) and Bayesian method C (BayesC). The accuracy of genomic predictions was defined as the Pearson's correlation between adjusted phenotype and GEBV (), unless otherwise stated. Using 50K genotypes, the highest average achieved in purebreds (AN, CH) was 0.41 for DMI, 0.34 for ADG, and 0.35 for RFI, whereas in crossbreds (ANHH, TX) it was 0.38 for DMI, 0.21 for ADG, and 0.25 for RFI. Similarly, when imputed HD genotypes were applied in purebreds (AN, CH), the highest average was 0.14 for DMI, 0.15 for ADG, and 0.14 for RFI, whereas in crossbreds (ANHH, TX) it was 0.38 for DMI, 0.22 for ADG, and 0.24 for RFI. The of GBLUP predictions were

  15. Does Positive Youth Development Predict Adolescent Attitudes about Sexuality?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chapman, Erin N.; Werner-Wilson, Ronald Jay

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships among individual factors, parental factors, involvement in activities, and adolescent attitudes regarding sex (the outcome variable). We suggest that Positive Youth Development (PYD) research and programming should include promoting healthy sexuality as an important developmental outcome…

  16. Positive affect and markers of inflammation: discrete positive emotions predict lower levels of inflammatory cytokines.

    PubMed

    Stellar, Jennifer E; John-Henderson, Neha; Anderson, Craig L; Gordon, Amie M; McNeil, Galen D; Keltner, Dacher

    2015-04-01

    Negative emotions are reliably associated with poorer health (e.g., Kiecolt-Glaser, McGuire, Robles, & Glaser, 2002), but only recently has research begun to acknowledge the important role of positive emotions for our physical health (Fredrickson, 2003). We examine the link between dispositional positive affect and one potential biological pathway between positive emotions and health-proinflammatory cytokines, specifically levels of interleukin-6 (IL-6). We hypothesized that greater trait positive affect would be associated with lower levels of IL-6 in a healthy sample. We found support for this hypothesis across two studies. We also explored the relationship between discrete positive emotions and IL-6 levels, finding that awe, measured in two different ways, was the strongest predictor of lower levels of proinflammatory cytokines. These effects held when controlling for relevant personality and health variables. This work suggests a potential biological pathway between positive emotions and health through proinflammatory cytokines.

  17. Accuracy of the Chinese lunar calendar method to predict a baby's sex: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Villamor, Eduardo; Dekker, Louise; Svensson, Tobias; Cnattingius, Sven

    2010-07-01

    We estimated the accuracy of a non-invasive, inexpensive method (the Chinese lunar calendar, CLC) to predict the sex of a baby from around the time of conception, using 2,840,755 singleton births occurring in Sweden between 1973 and 2006. Maternal lunar age and month of conception were estimated, and used to predict each baby's sex, according to a published algorithm. Kappa statistics were estimated for the actual vs. the CLC-predicted sex of the baby. Overall kappa was 0.0002 [95% CI -0.0009, 0.0014]. Accuracy was not modified by year of conception, maternal age, level of education, body mass index or parity. In a validation subset of 1000 births in which we used a website-customised algorithm to estimate lunar dates, kappa was -0.02 [95% CI -0.08, 0.04]. Simulating the misuse of the method by failing to convert Gregorian dates into lunar did not change the results. We conclude that the CLC method is no better at predicting the sex of a baby than tossing a coin and advise against painting the nursery based on this method's result. PMID:20618730

  18. Accuracy of the Chinese lunar calendar method to predict a baby's sex: a population-based study.

    PubMed

    Villamor, Eduardo; Dekker, Louise; Svensson, Tobias; Cnattingius, Sven

    2010-07-01

    We estimated the accuracy of a non-invasive, inexpensive method (the Chinese lunar calendar, CLC) to predict the sex of a baby from around the time of conception, using 2,840,755 singleton births occurring in Sweden between 1973 and 2006. Maternal lunar age and month of conception were estimated, and used to predict each baby's sex, according to a published algorithm. Kappa statistics were estimated for the actual vs. the CLC-predicted sex of the baby. Overall kappa was 0.0002 [95% CI -0.0009, 0.0014]. Accuracy was not modified by year of conception, maternal age, level of education, body mass index or parity. In a validation subset of 1000 births in which we used a website-customised algorithm to estimate lunar dates, kappa was -0.02 [95% CI -0.08, 0.04]. Simulating the misuse of the method by failing to convert Gregorian dates into lunar did not change the results. We conclude that the CLC method is no better at predicting the sex of a baby than tossing a coin and advise against painting the nursery based on this method's result.

  19. Dorsomedial prefrontal cortex activity predicts the accuracy in estimating others' preferences.

    PubMed

    Kang, Pyungwon; Lee, Jongbin; Sul, Sunhae; Kim, Hackjin

    2013-01-01

    The ability to accurately estimate another person's preferences is crucial for a successful social life. In daily interactions, we often do this on the basis of minimal information. The aims of the present study were (a) to examine whether people can accurately judge others based only on a brief exposure to their appearances, and (b) to reveal the underlying neural mechanisms with functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Participants were asked to make guesses about unfamiliar target individuals' preferences for various items after looking at their faces for 3 s. The behavioral results showed that participants estimated others' preferences above chance level. The fMRI data revealed that higher accuracy in preference estimation was associated with greater activity in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex (DMPFC) when participants were guessing the targets' preferences relative to thinking about their own preferences. These findings suggest that accurate estimations of others' preferences may require increased activity in the DMPFC. A functional connectivity analysis revealed that higher accuracy in preference estimation was related to increased functional connectivity between the DMPFC and the brain regions that are known to be involved in theory of mind processing, such as the temporoparietal junction (TPJ) and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC)/precuneus, during correct vs. incorrect guessing trials. On the contrary, the tendency to refer to self-preferences when estimating others' preference was related to greater activity in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex. These findings imply that the DMPFC may be a core region in estimating the preferences of others and that higher accuracy may require stronger communication between the DMPFC and the TPJ and PCC/precuneus, part of a neural network known to be engaged in mentalizing.

  20. Optimism predicts positive health in repatriated prisoners of war.

    PubMed

    Segovia, Francine; Moore, Jeffrey L; Linnville, Steven E; Hoyt, Robert E

    2015-05-01

    "Positive health," defined as a state beyond the mere absence of disease, was used as a model to examine factors for enhancing health despite extreme trauma. The study examined the United States' longest detained American prisoners of war, those held in Vietnam in the 1960s through early 1970s. Positive health was measured using a physical and a psychological composite score for each individual, based on 9 physical and 9 psychological variables. Physical and psychological health was correlated with optimism obtained postrepatriation (circa 1973). Linear regressions were employed to determine which variables contributed most to health ratings. Optimism was the strongest predictor of physical health (β = -.33, t = -2.73, p = .008), followed by fewer sleep complaints (β = -.29, t = -2.52, p = .01). This model accounted for 25% of the variance. Optimism was also the strongest predictor of psychological health (β = -.41, t = -2.87, p = .006), followed by Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Psychopathic Deviate (MMPI-PD; McKinley & Hathaway, 1944) scores (β = -.23, t = -1.88, p = .07). This model strongly suggests that optimism is a significant predictor of positive physical and psychological health, and optimism also provides long-term protective benefits. These findings and the utility of this model suggest a promising area for future research and intervention. PMID:25961116

  1. Evolutionary-guided de novo structure prediction of self-associated transmembrane helical proteins with near-atomic accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Y.; Barth, P.

    2015-05-01

    How specific protein associations regulate the function of membrane receptors remains poorly understood. Conformational flexibility currently hinders the structure determination of several classes of membrane receptors and associated oligomers. Here we develop EFDOCK-TM, a general method to predict self-associated transmembrane protein helical (TMH) structures from sequence guided by co-evolutionary information. We show that accurate intermolecular contacts can be identified using a combination of protein sequence covariation and TMH binding surfaces predicted from sequence. When applied to diverse TMH oligomers, including receptors characterized in multiple conformational and functional states, the method reaches unprecedented near-atomic accuracy for most targets. Blind predictions of structurally uncharacterized receptor tyrosine kinase TMH oligomers provide a plausible hypothesis on the molecular mechanisms of disease-associated point mutations and binding surfaces for the rational design of selective inhibitors. The method sets the stage for uncovering novel determinants of molecular recognition and signalling in single-spanning eukaryotic membrane receptors.

  2. Evolutionary-guided de novo structure prediction of self-associated transmembrane helical proteins with near-atomic accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Y.; Barth, P.

    2016-01-01

    How specific protein associations regulate the function of membrane receptors remains poorly understood. Conformational flexibility currently hinders the structure determination of several classes of membrane receptors and associated oligomers. Here we develop EFDOCK-TM, a general method to predict self-associated transmembrane protein helical (TMH) structures from sequence guided by co-evolutionary information. We show that accurate intermolecular contacts can be identified using a combination of protein sequence covariation and TMH binding surfaces predicted from sequence. When applied to diverse TMH oligomers, including receptors characterized in multiple conformational and functional states, the method reaches unprecedented near-atomic accuracy for most targets. Blind predictions of structurally uncharacterized receptor tyrosine kinase TMH oligomers provide a plausible hypothesis on the molecular mechanisms of disease-associated point mutations and binding surfaces for the rational design of selective inhibitors. The method sets the stage for uncovering novel determinants of molecular recognition and signalling in single-spanning eukaryotic membrane receptors. PMID:25995083

  3. Does scapular positioning predict shoulder pain in recreational overhead athletes?

    PubMed

    Struyf, F; Nijs, J; Meeus, M; Roussel, N A; Mottram, S; Truijen, S; Meeusen, R

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this prospective study is to investigate possible scapular related risk factors for developing shoulder pain. Therefore, a 2-year follow-up study in a general community sports centre setting was conducted. A sample of convenience of 113 recreational overhead athletes (59 women and 54 men) with a mean age of 34 (17-64; SD 12) years were recruited. At baseline, visual observation for scapular dyskinesis, measured scapular protraction, upward scapular rotation and dynamic scapular control were evaluated. 22% (n=25) of all athletes developed shoulder pain during the 24 months following baseline assessment. The Mean Shoulder Disability Questionnaire (SDQ) score for the painful shoulders was 34.8 (6.3-62.5; SD 17.4). None of the scapular characteristics predicted the development of shoulder pain. However, the athletes that developed shoulder pain demonstrated significantly less upward scapular rotation at 45° (p=0.010) and 90° (p=0.016) of shoulder abduction in the frontal plane at baseline in comparison to the athletes that remained pain-free. In conclusion, although these scapular characteristics are not of predictive value for the development of shoulder pain, this study increases our understanding of the importance of a scapular upward rotation assessment among recreational overhead athletes.

  4. Cognitive models of risky choice: parameter stability and predictive accuracy of prospect theory.

    PubMed

    Glöckner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-04-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are individual differences as measured by model parameters stable enough to improve the ability to predict behavior as compared to modeling without adjustable parameters? We examined this issue in cumulative prospect theory (CPT), arguably the most widely used framework to model decisions under risk. Specifically, we examined (a) the temporal stability of CPT's parameters; and (b) how well different implementations of CPT, varying in the number of adjustable parameters, predict individual choice relative to models with no adjustable parameters (such as CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and various heuristics). We presented participants with risky choice problems and fitted CPT to each individual's choices in two separate sessions (which were 1 week apart). All parameters were correlated across time, in particular when using a simple implementation of CPT. CPT allowing for individual variability in parameter values predicted individual choice better than CPT with fixed parameters, expected value theory, and the heuristics. CPT's parameters thus seem to pick up stable individual differences that need to be considered when predicting risky choice.

  5. Accuracy of patient's turnover time prediction using RFID technology in an academic ambulatory surgery center.

    PubMed

    Marchand-Maillet, Florence; Debes, Claire; Garnier, Fanny; Dufeu, Nicolas; Sciard, Didier; Beaussier, Marc

    2015-02-01

    Patients flow in outpatient surgical unit is a major issue with regards to resource utilization, overall case load and patient satisfaction. An electronic Radio Frequency Identification Device (RFID) was used to document the overall time spent by the patients between their admission and discharge from the unit. The objective of this study was to evaluate how a RFID-based data collection system could provide an accurate prediction of the actual time for the patient to be discharged from the ambulatory surgical unit after surgery. This is an observational prospective evaluation carried out in an academic ambulatory surgery center (ASC). Data on length of stay at each step of the patient care, from admission to discharge, were recorded by a RFID device and analyzed according to the type of surgical procedure, the surgeon and the anesthetic technique. Based on these initial data (n = 1520), patients were scheduled in a sequential manner according to the expected duration of the previous case. The primary endpoint was the difference between actual and predicted time of discharge from the unit. A total of 414 consecutive patients were prospectively evaluated. One hundred seventy four patients (42%) were discharged at the predicted time ± 30 min. Only 24% were discharged behind predicted schedule. Using an automatic record of patient's length of stay would allow an accurate prediction of the discharge time according to the type of surgery, the surgeon and the anesthetic procedure.

  6. Method for enhanced accuracy in predicting peptides using liquid separations or chromatography

    DOEpatents

    Kangas, Lars J.; Auberry, Kenneth J.; Anderson, Gordon A.; Smith, Richard D.

    2006-11-14

    A method for predicting the elution time of a peptide in chromatographic and electrophoretic separations by first providing a data set of known elution times of known peptides, then creating a plurality of vectors, each vector having a plurality of dimensions, and each dimension representing the elution time of amino acids present in each of these known peptides from the data set. The elution time of any protein is then be predicted by first creating a vector by assigning dimensional values for the elution time of amino acids of at least one hypothetical peptide and then calculating a predicted elution time for the vector by performing a multivariate regression of the dimensional values of the hypothetical peptide using the dimensional values of the known peptides. Preferably, the multivariate regression is accomplished by the use of an artificial neural network and the elution times are first normalized using a transfer function.

  7. Improving the Accuracy of Predicting Maximal Oxygen Consumption (VO2pk)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Downs, Meghan E.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Feiveson, Alan

    2016-01-01

    Maximal oxygen (VO2pk) is the maximum amount of oxygen that the body can use during intense exercise and is used for benchmarking endurance exercise capacity. The most accurate method to determineVO2pk requires continuous measurements of ventilation and gas exchange during an exercise test to maximal effort, which necessitates expensive equipment, a trained staff, and time to set-up the equipment. For astronauts, accurate VO2pk measures are important to assess mission critical task performance capabilities and to prescribe exercise intensities to optimize performance. Currently, astronauts perform submaximal exercise tests during flight to predict VO2pk; however, while submaximal VO2pk prediction equations provide reliable estimates of mean VO2pk for populations, they can be unacceptably inaccurate for a given individual. The error in current predictions and logistical limitations of measuring VO2pk, particularly during spaceflight, highlights the need for improved estimation methods.

  8. Improving the Accuracy of Predicting Maximal Oxygen Consumption (VO2peak)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Downs, Meghan E.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Ploutz-Snyder, Lori; Feiveson, Alan

    2016-01-01

    Maximal oxygen (VO2pk) is the maximum amount of oxygen that the body can use during intense exercise and is used for benchmarking endurance exercise capacity. The most accurate method to determineVO2pk requires continuous measurements of ventilation and gas exchange during an exercise test to maximal effort, which necessitates expensive equipment, a trained staff, and time to set-up the equipment. For astronauts, accurate VO2pk measures are important to assess mission critical task performance capabilities and to prescribe exercise intensities to optimize performance. Currently, astronauts perform submaximal exercise tests during flight to predict VO2pk; however, while submaximal VO2pk prediction equations provide reliable estimates of mean VO2pk for populations, they can be unacceptably inaccurate for a given individual. The error in current predictions and logistical limitations of measuring VO2pk, particularly during spaceflight, highlights the need for improved estimation methods.

  9. Positive predictive value of cholescintigraphy in common bile duct obstruction

    SciTech Connect

    Lecklitner, M.L.; Austin, A.R.; Benedetto, A.R.; Growcock, G.W.

    1986-09-01

    Technetium-99m DISIDA imaging was employed in 400 patients to differentiate obstruction of the common bile duct from medical and other surgical causes of hyperbilirubinemia. Sequential anterior images demonstrated variable degrees of liver uptake, yet there was no evidence of intrabiliary or extrabiliary radioactivity for at least 4 hr after injection in 25 patients. Twenty-three patients were surgically documented to have complete obstruction of the common bile duct. One patient had hepatitis, and another had sickle cell crisis without bile duct obstruction. The remaining patients had either partial or no obstruction of the common bile duct. We conclude that the presence of liver uptake without evident biliary excretion by 4 hr on cholescintigraphy is highly sensitive and predictive of total obstruction of the common bile duct.

  10. Right Temporoparietal Gray Matter Predicts Accuracy of Social Perception in the Autism Spectrum

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    David, Nicole; Schultz, Johannes; Milne, Elizabeth; Schunke, Odette; Schöttle, Daniel; Münchau, Alexander; Siegel, Markus; Vogeley, Kai; Engel, Andreas K.

    2014-01-01

    Individuals with an autism spectrum disorder (ASD) show hallmark deficits in social perception. These difficulties might also reflect fundamental deficits in integrating visual signals. We contrasted predictions of a social perception and a spatial-temporal integration deficit account. Participants with ASD and matched controls performed two…

  11. Diagnostic accuracy of a mathematical model to predict apnea-hypopnea index using nighttime pulse oximetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebben, Matthew R.; Krieger, Ana C.

    2016-03-01

    The intent of this study is to develop a predictive model to convert an oxygen desaturation index (ODI) to an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). This model will then be compared to actual AHI to determine its precision. One thousand four hundred and sixty-seven subjects given polysomnograms with concurrent pulse oximetry between April 14, 2010, and February 7, 2012, were divided into model development (n=733) and verification groups (n=734) in order to develop a predictive model of AHI using ODI. Quadratic regression was used for model development. The coefficient of determination (r2) between the actual AHI and the predicted AHI (PredAHI) was 0.80 (r=0.90), which was significant at a p<0.001. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.96 for AHI thresholds of ≥10 and ≥15/h to 0.97 for thresholds of ≥5 and ≥30/h. The algorithm described in this paper provides a convenient and accurate way to convert ODI to a predicted AHI. This tool makes it easier for clinicians to understand oximetry data in the context of traditional measures of sleep apnea.

  12. Accuracy of the DIBELS Oral Reading Fluency Measure for Predicting Third Grade Reading Comprehension Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Roehrig, Alysia D.; Petscher, Yaacov; Nettles, Stephen M.; Hudson, Roxanne F.; Torgesen, Joseph K.

    2008-01-01

    We evaluated the validity of DIBELS ("Dynamic Indicators of Basic Early Literacy Skills") ORF ("Oral Reading Fluency") for predicting performance on the "Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test" (FCAT-SSS) and "Stanford Achievement Test" (SAT-10) reading comprehension measures. The usefulness of previously established ORF risk-level cutoffs [Good,…

  13. Beware of R2: simple, unambiguous assessment of the prediction accuracy of QSAR and QSPR models

    PubMed Central

    Alexander, D. L. J.; Tropsha, A.; Winkler, David A.

    2015-01-01

    The statistical metrics used to characterize the external predictivity of a model, i.e., how well it predicts the properties of an independent test set, have proliferated over the past decade. This paper clarifies some apparent confusion over the use of the coefficient of determination, R2, as a measure of model fit and predictive power in QSAR and QSPR modelling. R2 (or R2) has been used in various contexts in the literature in conjunction with training and test data, for both ordinary linear regression and regression through the origin as well as with linear and nonlinear regression models. We analyze the widely adopted model fit criteria suggested by Golbraikh and Tropsha1 in a strict statistical manner. Shortcomings in these criteria are identified and a clearer and simpler alternative method to characterize model predictivity is provided. The intent is not to repeat the well-documented arguments for model validation using test data, but to guide the application of R2 as a model fit statistic. Examples are used to illustrate both correct and incorrect use of R2. Reporting the root mean squared error or equivalent measures of dispersion, typically of more practical importance than R2, is also encouraged and important challenges in addressing the needs of different categories of users such as computational chemists, experimental scientists, and regulatory decision support specialists are outlined. PMID:26099013

  14. Diagnostic accuracy of a mathematical model to predict apnea–hypopnea index using nighttime pulse oximetry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ebben, Matthew R.; Krieger, Ana C.

    2016-03-01

    The intent of this study is to develop a predictive model to convert an oxygen desaturation index (ODI) to an apnea-hypopnea index (AHI). This model will then be compared to actual AHI to determine its precision. One thousand four hundred and sixty-seven subjects given polysomnograms with concurrent pulse oximetry between April 14, 2010, and February 7, 2012, were divided into model development (n=733) and verification groups (n=734) in order to develop a predictive model of AHI using ODI. Quadratic regression was used for model development. The coefficient of determination (r2) between the actual AHI and the predicted AHI (PredAHI) was 0.80 (r=0.90), which was significant at a p<0.001. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 0.96 for AHI thresholds of ≥10 and ≥15/h to 0.97 for thresholds of ≥5 and ≥30/h. The algorithm described in this paper provides a convenient and accurate way to convert ODI to a predicted AHI. This tool makes it easier for clinicians to understand oximetry data in the context of traditional measures of sleep apnea.

  15. Cognitive Models of Risky Choice: Parameter Stability and Predictive Accuracy of Prospect Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Glockner, Andreas; Pachur, Thorsten

    2012-01-01

    In the behavioral sciences, a popular approach to describe and predict behavior is cognitive modeling with adjustable parameters (i.e., which can be fitted to data). Modeling with adjustable parameters allows, among other things, measuring differences between people. At the same time, parameter estimation also bears the risk of overfitting. Are…

  16. An Other Perspective on Personality: Meta-Analytic Integration of Observers' Accuracy and Predictive Validity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Connelly, Brian S.; Ones, Deniz S.

    2010-01-01

    The bulk of personality research has been built from self-report measures of personality. However, collecting personality ratings from other-raters, such as family, friends, and even strangers, is a dramatically underutilized method that allows better explanation and prediction of personality's role in many domains of psychology. Drawing…

  17. Further Evaluation of the Accuracy of Managerial Prediction of Employee Preference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilder, David A.; Harris, Carelle; Casella, Sarah; Wine, Byron; Postma, Nicki

    2011-01-01

    Previous research (i.e., Wilder, Rost, & McMahon, 2007) has suggested that managers perform poorly when predicting items and activities which their employees state that they might like to earn as part of performance improvement programs. The purpose of the current study was to replicate the earlier study conducted by Wilder et al. (2007) with a…

  18. The Accuracy of Managerial Prediction of Employee Preference: A Brief Report

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wilder, David A.; Rost, Kristen; McMahon, Meghan

    2007-01-01

    The extent to which managers could accurately predict what items/activities their employees report as preferred was examined. First, managers were asked to rank order a list of items/activities they thought their employees would most prefer to be incorporated into a performance improvement plan. Next, employee preference for these same items was…

  19. The use of imprecise processing to improve accuracy in weather and climate prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Düben, Peter D.; McNamara, Hugh; Palmer, T.N.

    2014-08-15

    The use of stochastic processing hardware and low precision arithmetic in atmospheric models is investigated. Stochastic processors allow hardware-induced faults in calculations, sacrificing bit-reproducibility and precision in exchange for improvements in performance and potentially accuracy of forecasts, due to a reduction in power consumption that could allow higher resolution. A similar trade-off is achieved using low precision arithmetic, with improvements in computation and communication speed and savings in storage and memory requirements. As high-performance computing becomes more massively parallel and power intensive, these two approaches may be important stepping stones in the pursuit of global cloud-resolving atmospheric modelling. The impact of both hardware induced faults and low precision arithmetic is tested using the Lorenz '96 model and the dynamical core of a global atmosphere model. In the Lorenz '96 model there is a natural scale separation; the spectral discretisation used in the dynamical core also allows large and small scale dynamics to be treated separately within the code. Such scale separation allows the impact of lower-accuracy arithmetic to be restricted to components close to the truncation scales and hence close to the necessarily inexact parametrised representations of unresolved processes. By contrast, the larger scales are calculated using high precision deterministic arithmetic. Hardware faults from stochastic processors are emulated using a bit-flip model with different fault rates. Our simulations show that both approaches to inexact calculations do not substantially affect the large scale behaviour, provided they are restricted to act only on smaller scales. By contrast, results from the Lorenz '96 simulations are superior when small scales are calculated on an emulated stochastic processor than when those small scales are parametrised. This suggests that inexact calculations at the small scale could reduce computation and

  20. Eyes on crowding: crowding is preserved when responding by eye and similarly affects identity and position accuracy.

    PubMed

    Yildirim, Funda; Meyer, Vincent; Cornelissen, Frans W

    2015-02-16

    Peripheral vision guides recognition and selection of targets for eye movements. Crowding—a decline in recognition performance that occurs when a potential target is surrounded by other, similar, objects—influences peripheral object recognition. A recent model study suggests that crowding may be due to increased uncertainty about both the identity and the location of peripheral target objects, but very few studies have assessed these properties in tandem. Eye tracking can integrally provide information on both the perceived identity and the position of a target and therefore could become an important approach in crowding studies. However, recent reports suggest that around the moment of saccade preparation crowding may be significantly modified. If these effects were to generalize to regular crowding tasks, it would complicate the interpretation of results obtained with eye tracking and the comparison to results obtained using manual responses. For this reason, we first assessed whether the manner by which participants responded—manually or by eye—affected their performance. We found that neither recognition performance nor response time was affected by the response type. Hence, we conclude that crowding magnitude was preserved when observers responded by eye. In our main experiment, observers made eye movements to the location of a tilted Gabor target while we varied flanker tilt to manipulate target-flanker similarity. The results indicate that this similarly affected the accuracy of peripheral recognition and saccadic target localization. Our results inform about the importance of both location and identity uncertainty in crowding.

  1. Does positive youth development predict adolescent attitudes about sexuality?

    PubMed

    Chapman, Erin N; Werner-Wilson, Ronald Jay

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships among individual factors, parental factors, involvement in activities, and adolescent attitudes regarding sex (the outcome variable). We suggest that Positive Youth Development (PYD) research and programming should include promoting healthy sexuality as an important developmental outcome for youth. PYD philosophy and theory, bioecological theory (Bronfenbrenner & Morris, 1998), and identity development theory (Erikson, 1983, 1968; Marcia, 1980, 1993) provided the foundation for this study and were used to make the connections between PYD, adolescent sexuality (including attitudes and behavior), and aspects of the parent-adolescent relationship. Both self-esteem and sexual experience were significant predictors of attitudes regarding sex, but overall, parents contributed the most influence on the outcome variable. (It should be noted, however, that parental influence was the only factor that was a significant predictor.) Only one of the two involvements in activities variables was a significant predictor of attitudes regarding sex.

  2. Assessing the prediction accuracy of cure in the Cox proportional hazards cure model: an application to breast cancer data.

    PubMed

    Asano, Junichi; Hirakawa, Akihiro; Hamada, Chikuma

    2014-01-01

    A cure rate model is a survival model incorporating the cure rate with the assumption that the population contains both uncured and cured individuals. It is a powerful statistical tool for prognostic studies, especially in cancer. The cure rate is important for making treatment decisions in clinical practice. The proportional hazards (PH) cure model can predict the cure rate for each patient. This contains a logistic regression component for the cure rate and a Cox regression component to estimate the hazard for uncured patients. A measure for quantifying the predictive accuracy of the cure rate estimated by the Cox PH cure model is required, as there has been a lack of previous research in this area. We used the Cox PH cure model for the breast cancer data; however, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) could not be estimated because many patients were censored. In this study, we used imputation-based AUCs to assess the predictive accuracy of the cure rate from the PH cure model. We examined the precision of these AUCs using simulation studies. The results demonstrated that the imputation-based AUCs were estimable and their biases were negligibly small in many cases, although ordinary AUC could not be estimated. Additionally, we introduced the bias-correction method of imputation-based AUCs and found that the bias-corrected estimate successfully compensated the overestimation in the simulation studies. We also illustrated the estimation of the imputation-based AUCs using breast cancer data.

  3. A Function Accounting for Training Set Size and Marker Density to Model the Average Accuracy of Genomic Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Erbe, Malena; Gredler, Birgit; Seefried, Franz Reinhold; Bapst, Beat; Simianer, Henner

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of genomic breeding values is of major practical relevance in dairy cattle breeding. Deterministic equations have been suggested to predict the accuracy of genomic breeding values in a given design which are based on training set size, reliability of phenotypes, and the number of independent chromosome segments (). The aim of our study was to find a general deterministic equation for the average accuracy of genomic breeding values that also accounts for marker density and can be fitted empirically. Two data sets of 5′698 Holstein Friesian bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and 1′332 Brown Swiss bulls genotyped with 50 K SNPs and imputed to ∼600 K SNPs were available. Different k-fold (k = 2–10, 15, 20) cross-validation scenarios (50 replicates, random assignment) were performed using a genomic BLUP approach. A maximum likelihood approach was used to estimate the parameters of different prediction equations. The highest likelihood was obtained when using a modified form of the deterministic equation of Daetwyler et al. (2010), augmented by a weighting factor (w) based on the assumption that the maximum achievable accuracy is . The proportion of genetic variance captured by the complete SNP sets () was 0.76 to 0.82 for Holstein Friesian and 0.72 to 0.75 for Brown Swiss. When modifying the number of SNPs, w was found to be proportional to the log of the marker density up to a limit which is population and trait specific and was found to be reached with ∼20′000 SNPs in the Brown Swiss population studied. PMID:24339895

  4. The utility and accuracy of four equations in predicting sodium levels in dysnatremic patients

    PubMed Central

    Hanna, Ramy Magdy; Yang, Wan-Ting; Lopez, Eduardo A.; Riad, Joseph Nabil; Wilson, James

    2016-01-01

    Background Improper correction of hyponatremia can cause severe complications, including osmotic demyelination syndrome (ODS). The Adrogué–Madias equation (AM), the Barsoum–Levine (BL) equation, the Electrolyte Free Water Clearance (EFWC) equation and the Nguyen–Kurtz (NK) equation are four derived equations based on the empirically derived Edelman equation for predicting sodium at a later time (Na2) from a known starting sodium (Na1), fluid/electrolyte composition and input and output volumes. Methods Our retrospective study included 43 data points from 31 mostly hyponatremic patients. We calculated Na2 based on five sets of rules that were progressively more precisely calculated. Sets A–D included all 31 patients and 43 data points and set E was based on 15 patients and 27 data points. Results The root mean square error was calculated and found to be between 4.79 and 6.37 mmol/L (mEq/L) for all sets. Bland–Altman analysis showed high variability and discrepancies between the predicted and actual Na2. Conclusions Like similar studies in hypernatremic patients, the data suggest that hyponatremic modeling equations are not reliably accurate in predicting Na2 from Na1 and available clinical data regarding sodium, potassium and fluid balance over longer time frames (12–30 h). Our study was retrospective and was done in an inpatient setting and thus was subject to limitations and laboratory measurement variability, but showed that all four equations are not able to reliably predict Na2 from Na1 and inputs across a 12–30 h period. PMID:27478591

  5. Prediction accuracy of various models for angle-of-arrival fluctuations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Porat, O.; Shapira, J.

    2016-03-01

    We have compared measured angle-of-arrival (AOA) fluctuations to the prediction of various models, for a laser beam propagating through a turbulent atmosphere at ground level. Three models have been investigated: a simple small perturbation model, a model which incorporates also inner and outer scale effects and a third model which takes into account the contribution of additional spatial scales and is able to predict a saturation regime. Data were collected in an approximately ten year time span. We have used near infra-red LIDAR systems to determine the AOA fluctuations by measuring the short term movement of a laser spot in the receiver plane, reflected from targets placed at various distances. In parallel, we have also measured the turbulence strength with a short-range scintilometer and recorded the average wind speed along the laser path. Our analysis indicates that the simple model predictions are quite good for weak turbulence and short distances, however on the majority of the scenarios the conditions (turbulence strength and distance) are such that the AOA fluctuations deviate from the simple model and even approach saturation. In these cases the fluctuations follows the general form of the third model. We also found some differences between the day and night behavior which wasn't considered by any of the models.

  6. Assessment of the accuracy of PPP for very-high-frequency dynamic, satellite positioning and earthquake modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moschas, F.; Avallone, A.; Moschonas, N.; Saltogianni, V.; Stiros, S.

    2012-04-01

    With the advent of various GPS/GNSS Point Positioning techniques, it became possible to model the dynamic displacement history of specific points during large and rather moderate earthquakes using satellite positioning, 1Hz and occasionally 10Hz sampling data. While there is evidence that the obtained data are precise, experience from monitoring of engineering structures like bridges, indicates that GPS/GNSS records are contaminated by coloured (mostly background noise) noise even in the cases of differential-type analysis of the satellite signals. This made the necessary the assessment of the results of different PPP processing using supervised learning techniques. Our work was based on a modification of an experiment first made to assess the potential of GPS to measure oscillations of civil engineering structures. A 10Hz GNSS antenna-receiver unit was mounted on the top of a vertical rod, fixed on the ground and forced to controlled oscillations. Oscillations were also recorded by a robotic theodolite and an accelerometer, and the whole experiment was video-recorded. A second 10Hz GNSS antenna-receiver unit was left on stable ground, in a nearby position. The rod was forced to semi-static motion (bending) and then was left to oscillate freely until still, and the whole movement was recorded by all sensors. GNSS data were analyzed both in kinematic mode and in PPP mode, using the GIPSY-OASIS II (http://gipsy-oasis.jpl.nasa.gov) (only GPS) and the PPP CRCS facility (GPS + GLONAS). Recorded PPP and differential kinematic processing coordinates (apparent displacements) were found to follow the real motion, but to be contaminated by a long-period noise. On the contrary, the short-period component of the apparent PPP displacements, obtained using high-pass filtering, were very much consistent with the real motion, with sub-mm mean deviation, though occasionally contaminated by clipping. The assessment of the very-high frequency GPS noise will provide useful information

  7. Impact of time-variable vegetation on accuracy of rapid hydrologic predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stec, Magdalena; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2016-04-01

    It is crucial to identify the processes that impact errors of hydrologic forecasts. Since existence of vegetation and its ability to store precipitation is an important element of water distribution in the catchment, especially at the beginning of a rainfall event, it may be considered as one of the processes influencing skills of hydrological forecasts. The main objective of the study is to verify the hypothesis that water level predictions are controlled by vegetation dynamics in the contributing mountainous basins. The analysis is conducted for the upper Nysa Klodzka catchment with the outlet in Bardo (SW Poland). The basin includes a mid-mountain abasement covered with crops, while surrounding medium-altitude mountain ranges are mainly covered with forests. We focus on the entire year, from autumn 2013 to summer 2014. Herein, we analyze prediction errors and efficiency measures of hydrologic forecasts provided by two stochastic models - uni- and multivariate autoregressive models as well as their two-model ensemble prediction. In addition, we use the satellite-derived Leaf Area Index (LAI) images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Hydrological prognoses are derived by the HydroProg real-time rapid forecasting system, built at the University of Wroclaw (Poland) in frame of the research project 2011/01/D/ST10/04171 of the National Science Centre of Poland. Correlation analysis between the plant maximum water storage capacity and prediction error/skill statistics (mean absolute error, root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency , index of agreement) is conducted. To cope with small sample size, the bootstrap simulation is performed. We conclude that there is a strong negative association between mean or median prediction errors and vegetation state for all meteorological seasons of a year. This result implies that basins with higher interception potential are more vulnerable to forecast inaccuracy than those with sparse natural

  8. Predicting College Students' Positive Psychology Associated Traits with Executive Functioning Dimensions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Marshall, Seth

    2016-01-01

    More research is needed that investigates how positive psychology-associated traits are predicted by neurocognitive processes. Correspondingly, the purpose of this study was to ascertain how, and to what extent, four traits, namely, grit, optimism, positive affect, and life satisfaction were predicted by the executive functioning (EF) dimensions…

  9. The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

    PubMed

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Atanasov, Pavel; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Metz, S Emlen; Ungar, Lyle; Bishop, Michael M; Horowitz, Michael; Merkle, Ed; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-03-01

    This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs. PMID:25581088

  10. The psychology of intelligence analysis: drivers of prediction accuracy in world politics.

    PubMed

    Mellers, Barbara; Stone, Eric; Atanasov, Pavel; Rohrbaugh, Nick; Metz, S Emlen; Ungar, Lyle; Bishop, Michael M; Horowitz, Michael; Merkle, Ed; Tetlock, Philip

    2015-03-01

    This article extends psychological methods and concepts into a domain that is as profoundly consequential as it is poorly understood: intelligence analysis. We report findings from a geopolitical forecasting tournament that assessed the accuracy of more than 150,000 forecasts of 743 participants on 199 events occurring over 2 years. Participants were above average in intelligence and political knowledge relative to the general population. Individual differences in performance emerged, and forecasting skills were surprisingly consistent over time. Key predictors were (a) dispositional variables of cognitive ability, political knowledge, and open-mindedness; (b) situational variables of training in probabilistic reasoning and participation in collaborative teams that shared information and discussed rationales (Mellers, Ungar, et al., 2014); and (c) behavioral variables of deliberation time and frequency of belief updating. We developed a profile of the best forecasters; they were better at inductive reasoning, pattern detection, cognitive flexibility, and open-mindedness. They had greater understanding of geopolitics, training in probabilistic reasoning, and opportunities to succeed in cognitively enriched team environments. Last but not least, they viewed forecasting as a skill that required deliberate practice, sustained effort, and constant monitoring of current affairs.

  11. A simulation study of predictive ability measures in a survival model II: explained randomness and predictive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Choodari-Oskooei, B; Royston, P; Parmar, Mahesh K B

    2012-10-15

    Several R(2) -type measures have been proposed to evaluate the predictive ability of a survival model. In Part I, we classified the measures into four categories and studied the measures in the explained variation category. In this paper, we study the remaining measures in a similar fashion, discussing their strengths and shortcomings. Simulation studies are used to examine the performance of the measures with respect to the criteria we set out in Part I. Our simulation studies showed that among the measures studied in this paper, the measures proposed by Kent and O'Quigley ρ(W)(2) (and its approximation ρ(W,A)(2)) and Schemper and Kaider R(SK)(2) perform better with respect to our criteria. However, our investigations showed that ρ(W)(2) is adversely affected by the distribution of covariate and the presence of influential observations. The results show that the other measures perform poorly, primarily because they are affected either by the degree of censoring or the follow-up period.

  12. Visual Discrimination Predicts Naming and Semantic Association Accuracy in Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Harnish, Stacy M.; Neils-Strunjas, Jean; Eliassen, James; Reilly, Jamie; Meinzer, Marcus; Clark, John Greer; Joseph, Jane

    2010-01-01

    Objective Language impairment is a common symptom of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and is thought to be related to semantic processing. The present study examines the contribution of another process, namely visual perception, on measures of confrontation naming and semantic association abilities in persons with probable AD. Methods Twenty individuals with probable mild-moderate Alzheimer’s disease and twenty age-matched controls completed a battery of neuropsychological measures assessing visual perception, naming, and semantic association ability. Visual discrimination tasks that varied in the degree to which they likely accessed stored structural representations were used to gauge whether structural processing deficits could account for deficits in naming and in semantic association in AD. Results Visual discrimination abilities of nameable objects in AD strongly predicted performance on both picture naming and semantic association ability but lacked the same predictive value for controls. Although impaired, performance on visual discrimination tests of abstract shapes and novel faces showed no significant relationship with picture naming and semantic association. These results provide additional evidence to support that structural processing deficits exist in AD and may contribute to object recognition and naming deficits. Conclusions Our findings suggest that there is a common deficit in discrimination of pictures using nameable objects, picture naming and semantic association of pictures in AD. Disturbances in structural processing of pictured items may be associated with lexical-semantic impairment in AD due to degraded internal storage of structural knowledge. PMID:21042208

  13. Accuracy of density functional theory in the prediction of carbon dioxide adsorbent materials.

    PubMed

    Cazorla, Claudio; Shevlin, Stephen A

    2013-04-01

    Density functional theory (DFT) has become the computational method of choice for modeling and characterization of carbon dioxide adsorbents, a broad family of materials which at present are urgently sought after for environmental applications. The description of polar carbon dioxide (CO(2)) molecules in low-coordinated environments like surfaces and porous materials, however, may be challenging for local and semi-local DFT approximations. Here, we present a thorough computational study in which the accuracy of DFT methods in describing the interactions of CO(2) with model alkali-earth-metal (AEM, Ca and Li) decorated carbon structures, namely anthracene (C(14)H(10)) molecules, is assessed. We find that gas-adsorption energies and equilibrium structures obtained with standard (i.e. LDA and GGA), hybrid (i.e. PBE0 and B3LYP) and van der Waals exchange-correlation functionals of DFT dramatically differ from the results obtained with second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), an accurate computational quantum chemistry method. The major disagreements found can be mostly rationalized in terms of electron correlation errors that lead to wrong charge-transfer and electrostatic Coulomb interactions between CO(2) and AEM-decorated anthracene molecules. Nevertheless, we show that when the concentration of AEM atoms in anthracene is tuned to resemble as closely as possible the electronic structure of AEM-decorated graphene (i.e. an extended two-dimensional material), hybrid exchange-correlation DFT and MP2 methods quantitatively provide similar results. PMID:23361567

  14. Does subdivision of the "atypical" urine cytology increase predictive accuracy for urothelial carcinoma?

    PubMed

    Bostwick, David G; Hossain, Deloar

    2014-12-01

    Urine cytology is routinely used for early diagnosis and monitoring of patients with hematuria or a history of urothelial carcinoma, but its clinical utility is greatly diminished by a high frequency of "atypical" specimens, reportedly around 20% in the literature. We compared our results with double-stained urine cytology specimens (papanicolaou and acid hematoxylin stains) with published results with only a single or double papanicolaou stain. The acid hematoxylin stain enhanced nuclear chromatin staining, eliminated significant background debris, and improved visibility of diagnostic cells in the presence of obscuring blood. Medical records of all urine cytologies received between 2005 and 2012 in our laboratories were reviewed. The study group consisted of all cases with bladder biopsy follow-up within one year of cytology. Of 43,131 urine cytologies diagnosed in our laboratories, biopsy follow-up results were available within one year in 10,473 cases, including 852 for symptoms and 1,461 for follow-up of bladder cancer. An additional 6,427 cases had cystoscopy results in which no biopsy was obtained. Cases were classified as negative (81.6%), atypical, favor reactive (2.9%), atypical, favor neoplastic (7.3%), suspicious (5.7%), and malignant (2.5%), with subsequent frequencies for urothelial cancer on biopsy of 13.3%, 31.1%, 37.6%, 53.6%, and 74.3%, respectively. No significant difference was found if atypical was subdivided into two categories: favor reactive and favor neoplastic. Subdivision of the atypical category did not improve diagnostic accuracy. Addition of the acid hematoxylin stain decreased the incidence of atypical urine cytologies from about 20% to 10.2%. PMID:24838797

  15. BEYOND THE MAIN SEQUENCE: TESTING THE ACCURACY OF STELLAR MASSES PREDICTED BY THE PARSEC EVOLUTIONARY TRACKS

    SciTech Connect

    Ghezzi, Luan; Johnson, John Asher

    2015-10-20

    Characterizing the physical properties of exoplanets and understanding their formation and orbital evolution requires precise and accurate knowledge of their host stars. Accurately measuring stellar masses is particularly important because they likely influence planet occurrence and the architectures of planetary systems. Single main-sequence stars typically have masses estimated from evolutionary tracks, which generally provide accurate results due to their extensive empirical calibration. However, the validity of this method for subgiants and giants has been called into question by recent studies, with suggestions that the masses of these evolved stars could have been overestimated. We investigate these concerns using a sample of 59 benchmark evolved stars with model-independent masses (from binary systems or asteroseismology) obtained from the literature. We find very good agreement between these benchmark masses and the ones estimated using evolutionary tracks. The average fractional difference in the mass interval ∼0.7–4.5 M{sub ⊙} is consistent with zero (−1.30 ± 2.42%), with no significant trends in the residuals relative to the input parameters. A good agreement between model-dependent and -independent radii (−4.81 ± 1.32%) and surface gravities (0.71 ± 0.51%) is also found. The consistency between independently determined ages for members of binary systems adds further support for the accuracy of the method employed to derive the stellar masses. Taken together, our results indicate that determination of masses of evolved stars using grids of evolutionary tracks is not significantly affected by systematic errors, and is thus valid for estimating the masses of isolated stars beyond the main sequence.

  16. Design and implementation of a two-axis micromanipulator to enhance the gripper positional accuracy of a single flexible link

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiaoying

    1994-05-01

    Accurate and versatile robots are required to perform advanced assembly and manufacturing tasks. To improve the end effector positional accuracy of lightweight robot arms, a two-axis micro-manipulator is mounted between the robot wrist and its manipulator. The rationale is to reduce the wrist sensitivity to the structural deflections of the robotic manipulator. In an attempt to separate the problem of the end-of-arm deflections from the overall control problem of multi-link systems, the micromanipulator is tested on a single flexible link. A laser head with a dual axis photodetector is used to provide direct measurements of the transverse deflections at the free-end of the beam and to detect mechanical inaccuracies caused by manufacturing imperfections and assembly misalignment. The advantages of the integrated system of the micro-manipulator with a single compliant beam are demonstrated and compared to the one without the micro-manipulator for two different control schemes, 'rigid body controller (RBC)' and 'rigid and flexible motion controller (RFMC)' . Both theoretical and experimental results have proven the capability of the micro-manipulator in significantly improving the gripper positional accuracy. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that the micromanipulator tends to complement rather than overlap the effort exerted by the host beam controller. The experimental results have revealed the significant adverse effects of the backlash in gearing on the overall performance of the macro- and micro-manipulators. To address this problem, the dynamic model of the macro- and micro-manipulators is modified to include the dynamics of joint actuators along with the effects of backlash in the indirect drive mechanism of the compliant beam. A general method is developed to handle the dynamic characteristics of backlash in gearing. It entails the derivation of a variable structure model with one auxiliary degree-of-freedom. The latter serves to increase the number of degrees

  17. Positional Accuracy Assessment of the Openstreetmap Buildings Layer Through Automatic Homologous Pairs Detection: the Method and a Case Study

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brovelli, M. A.; Minghini, M.; Molinari, M. E.; Zamboni, G.

    2016-06-01

    OpenStreetMap (OSM) is currently the largest openly licensed collection of geospatial data. Being OSM increasingly exploited in a variety of applications, research has placed great attention on the assessment of its quality. This work focuses on assessing the quality of OSM buildings. While most of the studies available in literature are limited to the evaluation of OSM building completeness, this work proposes an original approach to assess the positional accuracy of OSM buildings based on comparison with a reference dataset. The comparison relies on a quasi-automated detection of homologous pairs on the two datasets. Based on the homologous pairs found, warping algorithms like e.g. affine transformations and multi-resolution splines can be applied to the OSM buildings to generate a new version having an optimal local match to the reference layer. A quality assessment of the OSM buildings of Milan Municipality (Northern Italy), having an area of about 180 km2, is then presented. After computing some measures of completeness, the algorithm based on homologous points is run using the building layer of the official vector cartography of Milan Municipality as the reference dataset. Approximately 100000 homologous points are found, which show a systematic translation of about 0.4 m on both the X and Y directions and a mean distance of about 0.8 m between the datasets. Besides its efficiency and high degree of automation, the algorithm generates a warped version of OSM buildings which, having by definition a closest match to the reference buildings, can be eventually integrated in the OSM database.

  18. Criterion validity and accuracy of global positioning satellite and data logging devices for wheelchair tennis court movement

    PubMed Central

    Sindall, Paul; Lenton, John P.; Whytock, Katie; Tolfrey, Keith; Oyster, Michelle L.; Cooper, Rory A.; Goosey-Tolfrey, Victoria L.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose To compare the criterion validity and accuracy of a 1 Hz non-differential global positioning system (GPS) and data logger device (DL) for the measurement of wheelchair tennis court movement variables. Methods Initial validation of the DL device was performed. GPS and DL were fitted to the wheelchair and used to record distance (m) and speed (m/second) during (a) tennis field (b) linear track, and (c) match-play test scenarios. Fifteen participants were monitored at the Wheelchair British Tennis Open. Results Data logging validation showed underestimations for distance in right (DLR) and left (DLL) logging devices at speeds >2.5 m/second. In tennis-field tests, GPS underestimated distance in five drills. DLL was lower than both (a) criterion and (b) DLR in drills moving forward. Reversing drill direction showed that DLR was lower than (a) criterion and (b) DLL. GPS values for distance and average speed for match play were significantly lower than equivalent values obtained by DL (distance: 2816 (844) vs. 3952 (1109) m, P = 0.0001; average speed: 0.7 (0.2) vs. 1.0 (0.2) m/second, P = 0.0001). Higher peak speeds were observed in DL (3.4 (0.4) vs. 3.1 (0.5) m/second, P = 0.004) during tennis match play. Conclusions Sampling frequencies of 1 Hz are too low to accurately measure distance and speed during wheelchair tennis. GPS units with a higher sampling rate should be advocated in further studies. Modifications to existing DL devices may be required to increase measurement precision. Further research into the validity of movement devices during match play will further inform the demands and movement patterns associated with wheelchair tennis. PMID:23820154

  19. EEG activity during movement planning encodes upcoming peak speed and acceleration and improves the accuracy in predicting hand kinematics.

    PubMed

    Yang, Lingling; Leung, Howard; Plank, Markus; Snider, Joe; Poizner, Howard

    2015-01-01

    The relationship between movement kinematics and human brain activity is an important and fundamental question for the development of neural prosthesis. The peak velocity and the peak acceleration could best reflect the feedforward-type movement; thus, it is worthwhile to investigate them further. Most related studies focused on the correlation between kinematics and brain activity during the movement execution or imagery. However, human movement is the result of the motor planning phase as well as the execution phase and researchers have demonstrated that statistical correlations exist between EEG activity during the motor planning and the peak velocity and the peak acceleration using grand-average analysis. In this paper, we examined whether the correlations were concealed in trial-to-trial decoding from the low signal-to-noise ratio of EEG activity. The alpha and beta powers from the movement planning phase were combined with the alpha and beta powers from the movement execution phase to predict the peak tangential speed and acceleration. The results showed that EEG activity from the motor planning phase could also predict the peak speed and the peak acceleration with a reasonable accuracy. Furthermore, the decoding accuracy of the peak speed and the peak acceleration could both be improved by combining band powers from the motor planning phase with the band powers from the movement execution.

  20. Accuracy of Inferior Vena Cava Ultrasound for Predicting Dehydration in Children with Acute Diarrhea in Resource-Limited Settings

    PubMed Central

    Modi, Payal; Glavis-Bloom, Justin; Nasrin, Sabiha; Guy, Allysia; Rege, Soham; Noble, Vicki E.; Alam, Nur H.; Levine, Adam C.

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Although dehydration from diarrhea is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in children under five, existing methods of assessing dehydration status in children have limited accuracy. Objective To assess the accuracy of point-of-care ultrasound measurement of the aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration in children. Methods A prospective cohort study of children under five years with acute diarrhea was conducted in the rehydration unit of the International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (icddr,b). Ultrasound measurements of aorta-to-IVC ratio and dehydrated weight were obtained on patient arrival. Percent weight change was monitored during rehydration to classify children as having “some dehydration” with weight change 3–9% or “severe dehydration” with weight change > 9%. Logistic regression analysis and Receiver-Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the accuracy of aorta-to-IVC ratio as a predictor of dehydration severity. Results 850 children were enrolled, of which 771 were included in the final analysis. Aorta to IVC ratio was a significant predictor of the percent dehydration in children with acute diarrhea, with each 1-point increase in the aorta to IVC ratio predicting a 1.1% increase in the percent dehydration of the child. However, the area under the ROC curve (0.60), sensitivity (67%), and specificity (49%), for predicting severe dehydration were all poor. Conclusions Point-of-care ultrasound of the aorta-to-IVC ratio was statistically associated with volume status, but was not accurate enough to be used as an independent screening tool for dehydration in children under five years presenting with acute diarrhea in a resource-limited setting. PMID:26766306

  1. Increasing shape modelling accuracy by adjusting for subject positioning: an application to the analysis of radiographic proximal femur symmetry using data from the Osteoarthritis Initiative.

    PubMed

    Lindner, C; Wallis, G A; Cootes, T F

    2014-04-01

    ) adjusting for subject positioning increases the accuracy of predicting the shape of the contra-lateral hip.

  2. Constructing positive futures: modeling the relationship between adolescents' hopeful future expectations and intentional self regulation in predicting positive youth development.

    PubMed

    Schmid, Kristina L; Phelps, Erin; Lerner, Richard M

    2011-12-01

    Intentional self regulation and hopeful expectations for the future are theoretically-related constructs shown to lead to positive youth development (PYD). However, the nature of their relationship over time has not been tested. Therefore, this study explored the associations between hopeful future expectations and intentional self regulation in predicting positive developmental outcomes. Participants were in Grades 7, 8, and 9 of the 4-H Study of PYD (N = 1311), a longitudinal study involving U.S. adolescents. A cross-lagged panel analysis using Structural Equation Modeling assessed the relations among hopeful future expectations and intentional self regulation across time in predicting PYD. Results indicated that earlier hopeful expectations for the future may be influential for later intentional self-regulation abilities, although both constructs were strong predictors of PYD in middle adolescence. We discuss implications for research and practice of hopeful expectations in adolescents' constructions of their positive futures.

  3. Which are the most useful scales for predicting repeat self-harm? A systematic review evaluating risk scales using measures of diagnostic accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Quinlivan, L; Cooper, J; Davies, L; Hawton, K; Gunnell, D; Kapur, N

    2016-01-01

    Objectives The aims of this review were to calculate the diagnostic accuracy statistics of risk scales following self-harm and consider which might be the most useful scales in clinical practice. Design Systematic review. Methods We based our search terms on those used in the systematic reviews carried out for the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence self-harm guidelines (2012) and evidence update (2013), and updated the searches through to February 2015 (CINAHL, EMBASE, MEDLINE, and PsychINFO). Methodological quality was assessed and three reviewers extracted data independently. We limited our analysis to cohort studies in adults using the outcome of repeat self-harm or attempted suicide. We calculated diagnostic accuracy statistics including measures of global accuracy. Statistical pooling was not possible due to heterogeneity. Results The eight papers included in the final analysis varied widely according to methodological quality and the content of scales employed. Overall, sensitivity of scales ranged from 6% (95% CI 5% to 6%) to 97% (CI 95% 94% to 98%). The positive predictive value (PPV) ranged from 5% (95% CI 3% to 9%) to 84% (95% CI 80% to 87%). The diagnostic OR ranged from 1.01 (95% CI 0.434 to 2.5) to 16.3 (95%CI 12.5 to 21.4). Scales with high sensitivity tended to have low PPVs. Conclusions It is difficult to be certain which, if any, are the most useful scales for self-harm risk assessment. No scales perform sufficiently well so as to be recommended for routine clinical use. Further robust prospective studies are warranted to evaluate risk scales following an episode of self-harm. Diagnostic accuracy statistics should be considered in relation to the specific service needs, and scales should only be used as an adjunct to assessment. PMID:26873046

  4. Accuracy of the actuator disc-RANS approach for predicting the performance and wake of tidal turbines.

    PubMed

    Batten, W M J; Harrison, M E; Bahaj, A S

    2013-02-28

    The actuator disc-RANS model has widely been used in wind and tidal energy to predict the wake of a horizontal axis turbine. The model is appropriate where large-scale effects of the turbine on a flow are of interest, for example, when considering environmental impacts, or arrays of devices. The accuracy of the model for modelling the wake of tidal stream turbines has not been demonstrated, and flow predictions presented in the literature for similar modelled scenarios vary significantly. This paper compares the results of the actuator disc-RANS model, where the turbine forces have been derived using a blade-element approach, to experimental data measured in the wake of a scaled turbine. It also compares the results with those of a simpler uniform actuator disc model. The comparisons show that the model is accurate and can predict up to 94 per cent of the variation in the experimental velocity data measured on the centreline of the wake, therefore demonstrating that the actuator disc-RANS model is an accurate approach for modelling a turbine wake, and a conservative approach to predict performance and loads. It can therefore be applied to similar scenarios with confidence.

  5. Accuracy of the actuator disc-RANS approach for predicting the performance and wake of tidal turbines.

    PubMed

    Batten, W M J; Harrison, M E; Bahaj, A S

    2013-02-28

    The actuator disc-RANS model has widely been used in wind and tidal energy to predict the wake of a horizontal axis turbine. The model is appropriate where large-scale effects of the turbine on a flow are of interest, for example, when considering environmental impacts, or arrays of devices. The accuracy of the model for modelling the wake of tidal stream turbines has not been demonstrated, and flow predictions presented in the literature for similar modelled scenarios vary significantly. This paper compares the results of the actuator disc-RANS model, where the turbine forces have been derived using a blade-element approach, to experimental data measured in the wake of a scaled turbine. It also compares the results with those of a simpler uniform actuator disc model. The comparisons show that the model is accurate and can predict up to 94 per cent of the variation in the experimental velocity data measured on the centreline of the wake, therefore demonstrating that the actuator disc-RANS model is an accurate approach for modelling a turbine wake, and a conservative approach to predict performance and loads. It can therefore be applied to similar scenarios with confidence. PMID:23319711

  6. The effects of the accuracy of the atmospheric forcings on the prediction of the sea surface transport in coastal areas.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cucco, Andrea; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Satta, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; della Valle, Antonio; De Biasio, Francesco; Cadau, Enrico; Zecchetto, Stefano; Umgiesser, Georg

    2015-04-01

    In the framework of the Italian flagship project RITMARE (http://www.ritmare.it/en/) an Operational Oceanography Systems (OOS hereafter) based on high resolution 3D hydrodynamic model has been developed for the Oristano Gulf (Sardinia, Italy), with the aim of making short term predictions of water currents and pollutant transport. Atmospheric data provided by the SKIRON meteorological model system (http://forecast.uoa.gr/) were used to make the predictions. In order to asses the quality of the wind field adopted to force the hydrodynamic model, a coastal wind measuring system (WMS hereafter) was developed. The WMS is composed by five three-components anemometers located along the Gulf coasts, which provide hourly and operationally wind measurements. These data are then used operationally to derive high resolution wind fields over the entire Gulf and surrounding coastal areas. The modelled wind data have been compared with the measured ones and the meteorological model accuracy estimated. A set of lagrangian buoys were deployed within the Gulf to measure the sea surface transport due to the main local wind regimes. The OOS were used to reproduce the paths followed by each lagrangian buoy using as forcing conditions both the wind fields measured by the local WMS and the predicted ones. Therefore the effects of the atmospheric forcing quality on predicting the surface hydrodynamics at coastal scale were determined.

  7. Accuracy of sea level predictions with lead time of one week: a comparison between Prognocean and MyOcean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Swierczynska, Malgorzata; Mizinski, Bartlomiej; Niedzielski, Tomasz

    2015-04-01

    There exist several systems which produce sea level forecasts in real time, with lead times ranging from hours to two weeks in the future. One of the recently developed solutions is Prognocean, the system that has been built and implemented at the University of Wroclaw, Poland. Its main feature is that it uses simple time series models to predict sea level anomaly maps, and does it for lead times ranging from 1 to 14 days with daily update. The empirical data-based models are fitted in real time both to individual grids (polynomial-harmonic model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with autoregressive model, polynomial-harmonic model combined with threshold autoregressive model) and to numerous grids forming a spatial latitude x longitude window of 3˚ x 5˚ (polynomial-harmonic model combined with multivariate autoregressive model). Although their simplicity, the approaches have already been shown to produce sea level anomaly predictions of reasonable accuracy. However, none of the analyses targeted at the comparative study which would present the skills of the Prognocean system against a background of the performance of other systems that use physically-based models. This study aims to fill this gap by comparing Prognocean-based predictions for one week into the future with the corresponding prognoses calculated by MyOcean. The reader is provided with the objectively-calculated set of statistics, presented as maps, which describes prediction errors (mean absolute error, root mean square error, index of agreement) and prediction skills (prediction efficiency, coefficient of determination) of the two systems. The exercise enables to compare the skills of the approaches, and the gridwise comparison allows one to identify areas of superior performance of each system.

  8. Effect of Over-Tree Evaporative Cooling in Orchards on Microclimate and Accuracy of Insect Model Predictions.

    PubMed

    Chambers, Ute; Jones, Vincent P

    2015-12-01

    Orchard design and management practices can alter microclimate and, thus, potentially affect insect development. If sufficiently large, these deviations in microclimate can compromise the accuracy of phenology model predictions used in integrated pest management (IPM) programs. Sunburn causes considerable damage in the Pacific Northwest, United States, apple-producing region. Common prevention strategies include the use of fruit surface protectants, evaporative cooling (EC), or both. This study focused on the effect of EC on ambient temperatures and model predictions for four insects (codling moth, Cydia pomonella L.; Lacanobia fruitworm, Lacanobia subjuncta Grote and Robinson; oblique-banded leafroller, Choristoneura rosaceana Harris; and Pandemis leafroller, Pandemis pyrusana Kearfott). Over-tree EC was applied in July and August when daily maximum temperatures were predicted to be ≥30°C between 1200-1700 hours (15/15 min on/off interval) in 2011 and between 1200-1800 hours (15/10 min on/off interval, or continuous on) in 2012. Control plots were sprayed once with kaolin clay in early July. During interval and continuous cooling, over-tree cooling reduced average afternoon temperatures compared with the kaolin treatment by 2.1-3.2°C. Compared with kaolin-treated controls, codling moth and Lacanobia fruitworm egg hatch in EC plots was predicted to occur up to 2 d and 1 d late, respectively. The presence of fourth-instar oblique-banded leafroller and Pandemis leafroller was predicted to occur up to 2 d and 1 d earlier in EC plots, respectively. These differences in model predictions were negligible, suggesting that no adjustments in pest management timing are needed when using EC in high-density apple orchards. PMID:26331306

  9. Effect of Over-Tree Evaporative Cooling in Orchards on Microclimate and Accuracy of Insect Model Predictions.

    PubMed

    Chambers, Ute; Jones, Vincent P

    2015-12-01

    Orchard design and management practices can alter microclimate and, thus, potentially affect insect development. If sufficiently large, these deviations in microclimate can compromise the accuracy of phenology model predictions used in integrated pest management (IPM) programs. Sunburn causes considerable damage in the Pacific Northwest, United States, apple-producing region. Common prevention strategies include the use of fruit surface protectants, evaporative cooling (EC), or both. This study focused on the effect of EC on ambient temperatures and model predictions for four insects (codling moth, Cydia pomonella L.; Lacanobia fruitworm, Lacanobia subjuncta Grote and Robinson; oblique-banded leafroller, Choristoneura rosaceana Harris; and Pandemis leafroller, Pandemis pyrusana Kearfott). Over-tree EC was applied in July and August when daily maximum temperatures were predicted to be ≥30°C between 1200-1700 hours (15/15 min on/off interval) in 2011 and between 1200-1800 hours (15/10 min on/off interval, or continuous on) in 2012. Control plots were sprayed once with kaolin clay in early July. During interval and continuous cooling, over-tree cooling reduced average afternoon temperatures compared with the kaolin treatment by 2.1-3.2°C. Compared with kaolin-treated controls, codling moth and Lacanobia fruitworm egg hatch in EC plots was predicted to occur up to 2 d and 1 d late, respectively. The presence of fourth-instar oblique-banded leafroller and Pandemis leafroller was predicted to occur up to 2 d and 1 d earlier in EC plots, respectively. These differences in model predictions were negligible, suggesting that no adjustments in pest management timing are needed when using EC in high-density apple orchards.

  10. Accuracy of predicting maximal quadriceps force from submaximal effort contractions after anterior cruciate ligament injury.

    PubMed

    Farquhar, Sara J; Chmielewski, Terese L; Snyder-Mackler, Lynn

    2005-10-01

    Weakness and failure of voluntary activation of the quadriceps femoris muscles often occur after anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture. Side-to-side strength comparisons are used as a measure of progress, and are inaccurate if the quadriceps has activation failure. Burst superimposition testing is commonly used to assess quadriceps strength and activation during a maximal volitional isometric contraction (MVIC), using the central activation ratio (CAR) calculation. A recently developed mathematical model predicts the MVIC from submaximal efforts. The purpose of this study was to compare the CAR calculation to the mathematical model. We hypothesized that the model would be a more accurate predictor of strength than the CAR calculation when voluntary activation failure is present. Data from the involved and uninvolved quadriceps muscles of 100 consecutive subjects with complete, isolated ACL rupture were retrospectively evaluated. Subjects who required multiple trials to produce an MVIC with full activation (true MVIC) were used to compare the CAR calculation, the mathematical model, and this true MVIC. Subjects unable to produce a true MVIC with multiple trials were used to compare the mathematical model to the CAR calculation. Results demonstrate that both methods reliably and accurately estimate the quadriceps weakness associated with ACL rupture. We recommend use of the CAR calculation to provide estimations of true quadriceps strength to facilitate clinical decisions about progress in rehabilitation after ACL rupture.

  11. The Value of Combining Blood Culture and SeptiFast Data for Predicting Complicated Bloodstream Infections Caused by Gram-Positive Bacteria or Candida Species

    PubMed Central

    Marín, Mercedes; Kestler, Martha; Alcalá, Luis; Rodriguez-Créixems, Marta; Bouza, Emilio

    2013-01-01

    Management of complicated bloodstream infections requires more aggressive treatment than uncomplicated bloodstream infections. We assessed the value of follow-up blood culture in bloodstream infections caused by Staphylococcus aureus, Enterococcus spp., Streptococcus spp., and Candida spp. and studied the value of persistence of DNA in blood (using SeptiFast) for predicting complicated bloodstream infections. Patients with bloodstream infections caused by these microorganisms were enrolled prospectively. After the first positive blood culture, samples were obtained every third day to perform blood culture and SeptiFast analyses simultaneously. Patients were followed to detect complicated bloodstream infection. The study sample comprised 119 patients. One-third of the patients developed complicated bloodstream infections. The values of persistently positive tests to predict complicated bloodstream infections were as follows: SeptiFast positive samples (sensitivity, 56%; specificity, 79.5%; positive predictive value, 54%; negative predictive value, 80.5%; accuracy, 72.3%) and positive blood cultures (sensitivity, 30.5%; specificity, 92.8%; positive predictive value, 64%; negative predictive value, 75.5%; accuracy, 73.9%). Multivariate analysis showed that patients with a positive SeptiFast result between days 3 and 7 had an almost 8-fold-higher risk of developing a complicated bloodstream infection. In S. aureus, the combination of both techniques to exclude endovascular complications was significantly better than the use of blood culture alone. We obtained a score with variables selected by the multivariate model. With a cutoff of 7, the negative predictive value for complicated bloodstream infection was 96.6%. Patients with a positive SeptiFast result between days 3 and 7 after a positive blood culture have an almost 8-fold-higher risk of developing complicated bloodstream infections. A score combining clinical data with the SeptiFast result may improve the

  12. Parameters affecting the accuracy of oxide thickness prediction in thin metal-oxide-semiconductor structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohaidat, J. M.; Ahmad-Bitar, Riyad N.

    2004-01-01

    On the basis of the solution of the time dependent Schrödinger equation within the framework of the effective mass theory, a complete quantum mechanical electron tunneling through a biased square potential model with abrupt interfaces was deduced. Barriers of 3 eV height and widths up to 140 Å were investigated. Current density-voltage ( J- V) curves were computed for Al/SiO 2/ n+Si structure. The computed J- V curves exhibited oscillations at applied voltages above (Fowler-Nordheim tunneling) and below (direct tunneling) 3 V. For oxide thickness estimation, the position of the oscillation extrema from this quantum mechanical model were fitted to a wave interference formula and showed excellent agreement for oxide layer widths less than 50 Å. However, a systematic deviation appeared for layers larger than 50 Å. We show that the electron energy distribution at the injection layer and the electron effective mass on layers other than the oxide layer are important parameters for accurate oxide thickness estimation.

  13. Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Santanello, Joseph A.; Kumar, Sujay; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.; Harrison, Kenneth W.; Zhou, Shuija

    2012-01-01

    Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

  14. Positive teacher and peer relations combine to predict primary school students' academic skill development.

    PubMed

    Kiuru, Noona; Aunola, Kaisa; Lerkkanen, Marja-Kristiina; Pakarinen, Eija; Poskiparta, Elisa; Ahonen, Timo; Poikkeus, Anna-Maija; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

    2015-04-01

    This study examined cross-lagged associations between positive teacher and peer relations and academic skill development. Reading and math skills were tested among 625 students in kindergarten and Grade 4. Teacher reports of positive affect toward each student and classmate reports of peer acceptance were gathered in Grades 1-3. The results showed, first, that positive teacher affect toward the student and peer acceptance were reciprocally associated: Positive teacher affect predicted higher peer acceptance, and higher peer acceptance predicted a higher level of positive teacher affect. Second, the effect of positive teacher affect on academic skill development was partly mediated via peer acceptance, while the effect of early academic skills on peer acceptance was partly mediated via positive teacher affect. The results suggest that a warm and supportive teacher can increase a student's peer acceptance, which, in turn, is positively associated with learning outcomes.

  15. Positive teacher and peer relations combine to predict primary school students' academic skill development.

    PubMed

    Kiuru, Noona; Aunola, Kaisa; Lerkkanen, Marja-Kristiina; Pakarinen, Eija; Poskiparta, Elisa; Ahonen, Timo; Poikkeus, Anna-Maija; Nurmi, Jari-Erik

    2015-04-01

    This study examined cross-lagged associations between positive teacher and peer relations and academic skill development. Reading and math skills were tested among 625 students in kindergarten and Grade 4. Teacher reports of positive affect toward each student and classmate reports of peer acceptance were gathered in Grades 1-3. The results showed, first, that positive teacher affect toward the student and peer acceptance were reciprocally associated: Positive teacher affect predicted higher peer acceptance, and higher peer acceptance predicted a higher level of positive teacher affect. Second, the effect of positive teacher affect on academic skill development was partly mediated via peer acceptance, while the effect of early academic skills on peer acceptance was partly mediated via positive teacher affect. The results suggest that a warm and supportive teacher can increase a student's peer acceptance, which, in turn, is positively associated with learning outcomes. PMID:25751095

  16. Is a positive history of non-anaesthetic drug allergy a predictive factor for positive allergy tests to anaesthetics?

    PubMed Central

    Hagau, Natalia; Gherman-Ionica, Nadia; Hagau, Denisa; Tranca, Sebastian; Sfichi, Manuela; Longrois, Dan

    2012-01-01

    AIMS International recommendations stipulate not performing screening skin tests to a drug in the absence of a clinical history consistent with that specific drug allergy. Nevertheless, two publications showed that a positive history of non-anaesthetic drug allergy was the only predictive factor for a positive skin test when screening for allergy to anaesthetic drugs was done. We selected from a surgical population 40 volunteers with a prior history of allergy to non-anaesthetic drugs in order to analyse the prevalence of positive allergy tests to anaesthetics. METHODS The selected adult patients were tested for 11 anaesthetic drugs using in vivo tests: skin prick (SPT) and intradermal (IDT) tests and in vitro tests: the basophil activation test (BAT) and detection of drug-specific immunoglobulin E (IgE). RESULTS The prevalence for the positive SPT and IDT was 1.6% and 5.8% respectively. The result of flow cytometry agreed with the SPT in five out of seven positive SPT (71%). IgEs confirmed two positive SPT with corresponding positive BAT. Ten per cent of the patients had a positive prick test to neuromuscular blocking agents (NMBA). For midazolam none of the SPT was positive, but 11 patients had positive IDT nonconfirmed by BAT. CONCLUSION The prevalence of positive in vivo and in vitro allergy tests to NMBAs is higher in our study population. This could be an argument for pre-operative SPT to NMBAs for the surgical population with reported non-anaesthetic drug allergies. A larger prospective study is needed to validate changes in clinical practice. PMID:21988224

  17. Diagnostic accuracy and predictive value of extended autoantibody profile in systemic sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Villalta, Danilo; Imbastaro, Tiziana; Di Giovanni, Sabrina; Lauriti, Ciro; Gabini, Marco; Turi, Maria Costanza; Bizzaro, Nicola

    2012-12-01

    Systemic sclerosis (SSc) is a heterogeneous autoimmune disorder characterized by microvascular injury, fibrosis of the skin and other organs, and presence of antinuclear autoantibodies (ANA) with a prevalence varying from 80 to 98%. The ANA classically detected in SSc include anti-centromere (ACA) and anti-topoisomerase I (ATA), which are positive in 50-60% of the patients. Even if other autoantibodies, such as anti-fibrillarin (AFA), anti-RNA polymerase III (RNAP III), anti-PMScl, anti-Th/To, and anti-hUF/NOR-90, are almost specific for SSc, until recently they were not routinely looked for, since the techniques for their identification were not suitable for routine use. In recent years, the advances in the knowledge of the biochemistry and of the immunoreactive sites of the autoantigens led to the development of new immunoassays using recombinant proteins as autoantigens. We evaluated a new multiplex line immunoblot assay (LIA) for the simultaneous detection of 13 different SSc-associated autoantibodies, in a cohort of 210 SSc Italian patients. The sensitivity and the specificity of this assay were as follows: 30.5% and 97.3% for ACA (anti-CENP-B), 29.5% and 96% for ACA (anti-CENP-A), 20% and 99.3% for ATA, 5.7% and 99.3% for anti-RNAP III (RP-155), 5.2% and 100% for anti-RNP III (RP-11), 6.7% and 98% for anti-PMScl (PMScl-100), 10.9% and 93.3% for anti-PMScl (PMscl-75), 3.3% and 98.7% for anti-Th/To, 0.48% and 100% for AFA, 4.8% and 96.7% for anti-hUF/NOR-90, 4.7% and 96% for anti-Ku, 0.95% and 100% for anti-Platelet-Derived Growth Factor Receptor, and 18.1% and 50% for anti-Ro-52, respectively. These results, which are similar to those obtained in other studies using traditional techniques, show that the LIA assay can be considered a more rapid and a more practical method than immunoprecipitation assays for studying SSc-related antibodies in the diagnostic work-up of SSc patients.

  18. Accuracy of color prediction of anthraquinone dyes in methanol solution estimated from first principle quantum chemistry computations.

    PubMed

    Cysewski, Piotr; Jeliński, Tomasz

    2013-10-01

    The electronic spectrum of four different anthraquinones (1,2-dihydroxyanthraquinone, 1-aminoanthraquinone, 2-aminoanthraquinone and 1-amino-2-methylanthraquinone) in methanol solution was measured and used as reference data for theoretical color prediction. The visible part of the spectrum was modeled according to TD-DFT framework with a broad range of DFT functionals. The convoluted theoretical spectra were validated against experimental data by a direct color comparison in terms of CIE XYZ and CIE Lab tristimulus model color. It was found, that the 6-31G** basis set provides the most accurate color prediction and there is no need to extend the basis set since it does not improve the prediction of color. Although different functionals were found to give the most accurate color prediction for different anthraquinones, it is possible to apply the same DFT approach for the whole set of analyzed dyes. Especially three functionals seem to be valuable, namely mPW1LYP, B1LYP and PBE0 due to very similar spectra predictions. The major source of discrepancies between theoretical and experimental spectra comes from L values, representing the lightness, and the a parameter, depicting the position on green→magenta axis. Fortunately, the agreement between computed and observed blue→yellow axis (parameter b) is very precise in the case of studied anthraquinone dyes in methanol solution. Despite discussed shortcomings, color prediction from first principle quantum chemistry computations can lead to quite satisfactory results, expressed in terms of color space parameters.

  19. Using cross-validation to evaluate predictive accuracy of survival risk classifiers based on high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard M; Subramanian, Jyothi; Li, Ming-Chung; Menezes, Supriya

    2011-05-01

    Developments in whole genome biotechnology have stimulated statistical focus on prediction methods. We review here methodology for classifying patients into survival risk groups and for using cross-validation to evaluate such classifications. Measures of discrimination for survival risk models include separation of survival curves, time-dependent ROC curves and Harrell's concordance index. For high-dimensional data applications, however, computing these measures as re-substitution statistics on the same data used for model development results in highly biased estimates. Most developments in methodology for survival risk modeling with high-dimensional data have utilized separate test data sets for model evaluation. Cross-validation has sometimes been used for optimization of tuning parameters. In many applications, however, the data available are too limited for effective division into training and test sets and consequently authors have often either reported re-substitution statistics or analyzed their data using binary classification methods in order to utilize familiar cross-validation. In this article we have tried to indicate how to utilize cross-validation for the evaluation of survival risk models; specifically how to compute cross-validated estimates of survival distributions for predicted risk groups and how to compute cross-validated time-dependent ROC curves. We have also discussed evaluation of the statistical significance of a survival risk model and evaluation of whether high-dimensional genomic data adds predictive accuracy to a model based on standard covariates alone.

  20. The short- to medium-term predictive accuracy of static and dynamic risk assessment measures in a secure forensic hospital.

    PubMed

    Chu, Chi Meng; Thomas, Stuart D M; Ogloff, James R P; Daffern, Michael

    2013-04-01

    Although violence risk assessment knowledge and practice has advanced over the past few decades, it remains practically difficult to decide which measures clinicians should use to assess and make decisions about the violence potential of individuals on an ongoing basis, particularly in the short to medium term. Within this context, this study sought to compare the predictive accuracy of dynamic risk assessment measures for violence with static risk assessment measures over the short term (up to 1 month) and medium term (up to 6 months) in a forensic psychiatric inpatient setting. Results showed that dynamic measures were generally more accurate than static measures for short- to medium-term predictions of inpatient aggression. These findings highlight the necessity of using risk assessment measures that are sensitive to important clinical risk state variables to improve the short- to medium-term prediction of aggression within the forensic inpatient setting. Such knowledge can assist with the development of more accurate and efficient risk assessment procedures, including the selection of appropriate risk assessment instruments to manage and prevent the violence of offenders with mental illnesses during inpatient treatment.

  1. Does diagnosis affect the predictive accuracy of risk assessment tools for juvenile offenders: Conduct Disorder and Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Dinesh; Shaw, Jenny; Dolan, Mairead; Lennox, Charlotte

    2014-10-01

    Studies have suggested an increased risk of criminality in juveniles if they suffer from co-morbid Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) along with Conduct Disorder. The Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth (SAVRY), the Psychopathy Checklist Youth Version (PCL:YV), and Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) have been shown to be good predictors of violent and non-violent re-offending. The aim was to compare the accuracy of these tools to predict violent and non-violent re-offending in young people with co-morbid ADHD and Conduct Disorder and Conduct Disorder only. The sample included 109 White-British adolescent males in secure settings. Results revealed no significant differences between the groups for re-offending. SAVRY factors had better predictive values than PCL:YV or YLS/CMI. Tools generally had better predictive values for the Conduct Disorder only group than the co-morbid group. Possible reasons for these findings have been discussed along with limitations of the study. PMID:25173178

  2. Accuracy of prediction of genomic breeding values for residual feed intake and carcass and meat quality traits in Bos taurus, Bos indicus, and composite beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Bolormaa, S; Pryce, J E; Kemper, K; Savin, K; Hayes, B J; Barendse, W; Zhang, Y; Reich, C M; Mason, B A; Bunch, R J; Harrison, B E; Reverter, A; Herd, R M; Tier, B; Graser, H-U; Goddard, M E

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of genomic predictions for 19 traits including feed efficiency, growth, and carcass and meat quality traits in beef cattle. The 10,181 cattle in our study had real or imputed genotypes for 729,068 SNP although not all cattle were measured for all traits. Animals included Bos taurus, Brahman, composite, and crossbred animals. Genomic EBV (GEBV) were calculated using 2 methods of genomic prediction [BayesR and genomic BLUP (GBLUP)] either using a common training dataset for all breeds or using a training dataset comprising only animals of the same breed. Accuracies of GEBV were assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. The accuracy of genomic prediction varied by trait and by method. Traits with a large number of recorded and genotyped animals and with high heritability gave the greatest accuracy of GEBV. Using GBLUP, the average accuracy was 0.27 across traits and breeds, but the accuracies between breeds and between traits varied widely. When the training population was restricted to animals from the same breed as the validation population, GBLUP accuracies declined by an average of 0.04. The greatest decline in accuracy was found for the 4 composite breeds. The BayesR accuracies were greater by an average of 0.03 than GBLUP accuracies, particularly for traits with known genes of moderate to large effect mutations segregating. The accuracies of 0.43 to 0.48 for IGF-I traits were among the greatest in the study. Although accuracies are low compared with those observed in dairy cattle, genomic selection would still be beneficial for traits that are hard to improve by conventional selection, such as tenderness and residual feed intake. BayesR identified many of the same quantitative trait loci as a genomewide association study but appeared to map them more precisely. All traits appear to be highly polygenic with thousands of SNP independently associated with each trait. PMID:23658330

  3. Accuracy of prediction of genomic breeding values for residual feed intake and carcass and meat quality traits in Bos taurus, Bos indicus, and composite beef cattle.

    PubMed

    Bolormaa, S; Pryce, J E; Kemper, K; Savin, K; Hayes, B J; Barendse, W; Zhang, Y; Reich, C M; Mason, B A; Bunch, R J; Harrison, B E; Reverter, A; Herd, R M; Tier, B; Graser, H-U; Goddard, M E

    2013-07-01

    The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of genomic predictions for 19 traits including feed efficiency, growth, and carcass and meat quality traits in beef cattle. The 10,181 cattle in our study had real or imputed genotypes for 729,068 SNP although not all cattle were measured for all traits. Animals included Bos taurus, Brahman, composite, and crossbred animals. Genomic EBV (GEBV) were calculated using 2 methods of genomic prediction [BayesR and genomic BLUP (GBLUP)] either using a common training dataset for all breeds or using a training dataset comprising only animals of the same breed. Accuracies of GEBV were assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. The accuracy of genomic prediction varied by trait and by method. Traits with a large number of recorded and genotyped animals and with high heritability gave the greatest accuracy of GEBV. Using GBLUP, the average accuracy was 0.27 across traits and breeds, but the accuracies between breeds and between traits varied widely. When the training population was restricted to animals from the same breed as the validation population, GBLUP accuracies declined by an average of 0.04. The greatest decline in accuracy was found for the 4 composite breeds. The BayesR accuracies were greater by an average of 0.03 than GBLUP accuracies, particularly for traits with known genes of moderate to large effect mutations segregating. The accuracies of 0.43 to 0.48 for IGF-I traits were among the greatest in the study. Although accuracies are low compared with those observed in dairy cattle, genomic selection would still be beneficial for traits that are hard to improve by conventional selection, such as tenderness and residual feed intake. BayesR identified many of the same quantitative trait loci as a genomewide association study but appeared to map them more precisely. All traits appear to be highly polygenic with thousands of SNP independently associated with each trait.

  4. Impact of aerosols on the forecast accuracy of solar irradiance calculated by a numerical weather prediction model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shimose, Ken-ichi; Ohtake, Hideaki; Fonseca, Joao Gari da Silva; Takashima, Takumi; Oozeki, Takashi; Yamada, Yoshinori

    2014-10-01

    The impact of aerosols on the forecast accuracy of solar irradiance calculated by a fine-scale, one day-ahead, and operational numerical weather prediction model (NWP) is investigated in this study. In order to investigate the impact of aerosols only, the clear sky period is chosen, which is defined as when there are no clouds in the observation data and in the forecast data at the same time. The evaluation of the forecast accuracy of the solar irradiance is done at a single observation point that is sometimes affected by aerosol events. The analysis period is one year from April 2010 to March 2011. During the clear sky period, the root mean square errors (RMSE) of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI), direct normal irradiance (DNI), and diffuse horizontal irradiance (DHI) are 40.0 W m-2, 84.0 Wm-2, and 47.9 W m-2, respectively. During one extreme event, the RMSEs of the GHI, DNI, and DHI are 70.1 W m-2, 211.6 W m-2, and 141.7 W m-2, respectively. It is revealed that the extreme events were caused by aerosols such as dust or haze. In order to investigate the impact of the aerosols, the sensitivity experiments of the aerosol optical depth (AOD) for the extreme events are executed. The best result is obtained by changing the AOD to 2.5 times the original AOD. This changed AOD is consistent with the satellite observation. Thus, it is our conclusion that an accurate aerosol forecast is important for the forecast accuracy of the solar irradiance.

  5. Robust Raman measurement of hydrogen peroxide directly through plastic containers under the change of bottle position and its long-term prediction reproducibility.

    PubMed

    Kim, Minjung; Chung, Hoeil; Kemper, Mark S

    2008-11-01

    Hydrogen peroxide concentration in antiseptic solutions has been non-destructively measured with the use of wide area illumination (WAI) scheme by applying a laser beam directly through a plastic container. The prediction accuracy was comparable to that from the use of quartz cell instead of a plastic bottle as well as near-infrared (NIR) prediction result in the previous study. Although the position of a plastic bottle was artificially changed in three-dimensional directions up to +/-10 mm to simulate real situation of practical measurement, the prediction accuracy was not degraded within +/-5 mm positional variation. This robust prediction performance was powered by the merits of WAI scheme that could provide improved reproducibility by illuminating large sample areas as well as less sensitivity of sample placement by the design of long focal length. Moreover, the prediction accuracy was successfully maintained over a long period of time. Finally, the prediction was also reproducible under the situation of laser power variation. The overall results demonstrate that WAI Raman scheme can provide robust and non-destructive quantitative analysis for not only hydrogen peroxide in antiseptic solution, but also other active pharmaceutical ingredients in diverse containers.

  6. Prediction of SAMPL3 host-guest binding affinities: evaluating the accuracy of generalized force-fields.

    PubMed

    Muddana, Hari S; Gilson, Michael K

    2012-05-01

    We used the second-generation mining minima method (M2) to compute the binding affinities of the novel host-guest complexes in the SAMPL3 blind prediction challenge. The predictions were in poor agreement with experiment, and we conjectured that much of the error might derive from the force field, CHARMm with Vcharge charges. Repeating the calculations with other generalized force-fields led to no significant improvement, and we observed that the predicted affinities were highly sensitive to the choice of force-field. We therefore embarked on a systematic evaluation of a set of generalized force fields, based upon comparisons with PM6-DH2, a fast yet accurate semi-empirical quantum mechanics method. In particular, we compared gas-phase interaction energies and entropies for the host-guest complexes themselves, as well as for smaller chemical fragments derived from the same molecules. The mean deviations of the force field interaction energies from the quantum results were greater than 3 kcal/mol and 9 kcal/mol, for the fragments and host-guest systems respectively. We further evaluated the accuracy of force-fields for computing the vibrational entropies and found the mean errors to be greater than 4 kcal/mol. Given these errors in energy and entropy, it is not surprising in retrospect that the predicted binding affinities deviated from the experiment by several kcal/mol. These results emphasize the need for improvements in generalized force-fields and also highlight the importance of systematic evaluation of force-field parameters prior to evaluating different free-energy methods.

  7. Diagnostic accuracy of calculated serum osmolarity to predict dehydration in older people: adding value to pathology laboratory reports

    PubMed Central

    Hooper, Lee; Abdelhamid, Asmaa; Ali, Adam; Bunn, Diane K; Jennings, Amy; John, W Garry; Kerry, Susan; Lindner, Gregor; Pfortmueller, Carmen A; Sjöstrand, Fredrik; Walsh, Neil P; Fairweather-Tait, Susan J; Potter, John F; Hunter, Paul R; Shepstone, Lee

    2015-01-01

    Objectives To assess which osmolarity equation best predicts directly measured serum/plasma osmolality and whether its use could add value to routine blood test results through screening for dehydration in older people. Design Diagnostic accuracy study. Participants Older people (≥65 years) in 5 cohorts: Dietary Strategies for Healthy Ageing in Europe (NU-AGE, living in the community), Dehydration Recognition In our Elders (DRIE, living in residential care), Fortes (admitted to acute medical care), Sjöstrand (emergency room) or Pfortmueller cohorts (hospitalised with liver cirrhosis). Reference standard for hydration status Directly measured serum/plasma osmolality: current dehydration (serum osmolality >300 mOsm/kg), impending/current dehydration (≥295 mOsm/kg). Index tests 39 osmolarity equations calculated using serum indices from the same blood draw as directly measured osmolality. Results Across 5 cohorts 595 older people were included, of whom 19% were dehydrated (directly measured osmolality >300 mOsm/kg). Of 39 osmolarity equations, 5 showed reasonable agreement with directly measured osmolality and 3 had good predictive accuracy in subgroups with diabetes and poor renal function. Two equations were characterised by narrower limits of agreement, low levels of differential bias and good diagnostic accuracy in receiver operating characteristic plots (areas under the curve >0.8). The best equation was osmolarity=1.86×(Na++ K+)+1.15×glucose+urea+14 (all measured in mmol/L). It appeared useful in people aged ≥65 years with and without diabetes, poor renal function, dehydration, in men and women, with a range of ages, health, cognitive and functional status. Conclusions Some commonly used osmolarity equations work poorly, and should not be used. Given costs and prevalence of dehydration in older people we suggest use of the best formula by pathology laboratories using a cutpoint of 295 mOsm/L (sensitivity 85%, specificity 59%), to report

  8. Model predictions and observed performance of JWST's cryogenic position metrology system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lunt, Sharon R.; Rhodes, David; DiAntonio, Andrew; Boland, John; Wells, Conrad; Gigliotti, Trevis; Johanning, Gary

    2016-07-01

    The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) cryogenic testing requires measurement systems that both obtain a very high degree of accuracy and can function in that environment. Close-range photogrammetry was identified as meeting those criteria. Testing the capability of a close-range photogrammetric system prior to its existence is a challenging problem. Computer simulation was chosen over building a scaled mock-up to allow for increased flexibility in testing various configurations. Extensive validation work was done to ensure that the actual as-built system meets accuracy and repeatability requirements. The simulated image data predicted the uncertainty in measurement to be within specification and this prediction was borne out experimentally. Uncertainty at all levels was verified experimentally to be <0.1 mm.

  9. Trait Reappraisal Predicts Affective Reactivity to Daily Positive and Negative Events

    PubMed Central

    Gunaydin, Gul; Selcuk, Emre; Ong, Anthony D.

    2016-01-01

    Past research on emotion regulation has provided evidence that cognitive reappraisal predicts reactivity to affective stimuli and challenge tests in laboratory settings. However, little is known about how trait reappraisal might contribute to affective reactivity to everyday positive and negative events. Using a large, life-span sample of adults (N = 1755), the present study addressed this important gap in the literature. Respondents completed a measure of trait reappraisal and reported on their daily experiences of positive and negative events and positive and negative affect for eight consecutive days. Results showed that trait reappraisal predicted lower increases in negative affect in response to daily negative events and lower increases in positive affect in response to daily positive events. These findings advance our understanding of the role of reappraisal in emotion regulation by showing how individual differences in the use of this strategy relate to emotional reactions to both positive and negative events outside the laboratory. PMID:27445954

  10. Diagnostic Accuracy of Perioperative Measurement of Basal Anterior Pituitary and Target Gland Hormones in Predicting Adrenal Insufficiency After Pituitary Surgery.

    PubMed

    Cerina, Vatroslav; Kruljac, Ivan; Radosevic, Jelena Marinkovic; Kirigin, Lora Stanka; Stipic, Darko; Pecina, Hrvoje Ivan; Vrkljan, Milan

    2016-03-01

    The insulin tolerance test (ITT) is the gold standard for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency (AI) after pituitary surgery. The ITT is unpleasant for patients, requires close medical supervision and is contraindicated in several comorbidities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether tumor size, remission rate, preoperative, and early postoperative baseline hormone concentrations could serve as predictors of AI in order to increase the diagnostic accuracy of morning serum cortisol. This prospective study enrolled 70 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed pituitary adenomas. Thirty-seven patients had nonfunctioning pituitary adenomas (NPA), 28 had prolactinomas and 5 had somatotropinomas. Thyroxin (T4), thyrotropin (TSH), prolactin, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), testosterone, and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I) were measured preoperatively and on the sixth postoperative day. Serum morning cortisol was measured on the third postoperative day (CORT3) as well as the sixth postoperative day (CORT6). Tumor mass was measured preoperatively and remission was assessed 3 months after surgery. An ITT was performed 3 to 6 months postoperatively. Remission was achieved in 48% of patients and AI occurred in 51%. Remission rates and tumor type were not associated with AI. CORT3 had the best predictive value for AI (area under the curve (AUC) 0.868, sensitivity 82.4%, specificity 83.3%). Tumor size, preoperative T4, postoperative T4, and TSH were also associated with AI in a multivariate regression model. A combination of all preoperative and postoperative variables (excluding serum cortisol) had a sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 77.8%. The predictive power of CORT3 substantially improved by adding those variables into the model (AUC 0.921, sensitivity 94.1%, specificity 78.3%, PPV 81.9%, NPV of 92.7%). In a subgroup analysis that included only female patients with NPA, LH had exactly the same predictive value as CORT3. The addition

  11. Diagnostic Accuracy of Perioperative Measurement of Basal Anterior Pituitary and Target Gland Hormones in Predicting Adrenal Insufficiency After Pituitary Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Cerina, Vatroslav; Kruljac, Ivan; Radosevic, Jelena Marinkovic; Kirigin, Lora Stanka; Stipic, Darko; Pecina, Hrvoje Ivan; Vrkljan, Milan

    2016-01-01

    Abstract The insulin tolerance test (ITT) is the gold standard for diagnosing adrenal insufficiency (AI) after pituitary surgery. The ITT is unpleasant for patients, requires close medical supervision and is contraindicated in several comorbidities. The aim of this study was to analyze whether tumor size, remission rate, preoperative, and early postoperative baseline hormone concentrations could serve as predictors of AI in order to increase the diagnostic accuracy of morning serum cortisol. This prospective study enrolled 70 consecutive patients with newly diagnosed pituitary adenomas. Thirty-seven patients had nonfunctioning pituitary adenomas (NPA), 28 had prolactinomas and 5 had somatotropinomas. Thyroxin (T4), thyrotropin (TSH), prolactin, follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), luteinizing hormone (LH), testosterone, and insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-I) were measured preoperatively and on the sixth postoperative day. Serum morning cortisol was measured on the third postoperative day (CORT3) as well as the sixth postoperative day (CORT6). Tumor mass was measured preoperatively and remission was assessed 3 months after surgery. An ITT was performed 3 to 6 months postoperatively. Remission was achieved in 48% of patients and AI occurred in 51%. Remission rates and tumor type were not associated with AI. CORT3 had the best predictive value for AI (area under the curve (AUC) 0.868, sensitivity 82.4%, specificity 83.3%). Tumor size, preoperative T4, postoperative T4, and TSH were also associated with AI in a multivariate regression model. A combination of all preoperative and postoperative variables (excluding serum cortisol) had a sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 77.8%. The predictive power of CORT3 substantially improved by adding those variables into the model (AUC 0.921, sensitivity 94.1%, specificity 78.3%, PPV 81.9%, NPV of 92.7%). In a subgroup analysis that included only female patients with NPA, LH had exactly the same predictive value as CORT3. The

  12. Estimation of the accuracy with which the position of the center of mass of an Interkosmos series artificial earth satellite is calculated. [the effect of atmospheric density

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Elyasberg, P. Y.; Kugayenko, B. V.; Voyskovskiy, M. I.

    1975-01-01

    The effects of disturbing forces on position calculation, and errors in the initial conditions of motion and in the selected assignment calculation schemes are estimated. It is shown that the main disturbing effects on the accuracy are due to density variations of the upper atmosphere. Recommendations are presented for estimating the calculation accuracy along with an example of such an estimate for the Interkosmos-7 artificial earth satellite. Other factors considered include the adopted scheme and computational algorithms used, effects of disturbing forces not taken into account earlier, and errors in the values of constants and in models of disturbing forces.

  13. Accuracy and efficiency of an infrared based positioning and tracking system for patient set-up and monitoring in image guided radiotherapy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jia, Jing; Xu, Gongming; Pei, Xi; Cao, Ruifen; Hu, Liqin; Wu, Yican

    2015-03-01

    An infrared based positioning and tracking (IPT) system was introduced and its accuracy and efficiency for patient setup and monitoring were tested for daily radiotherapy treatment. The IPT system consists of a pair of floor mounted infrared stereoscopic cameras, passive infrared markers and tools used for acquiring localization information as well as a custom controlled software which can perform the positioning and tracking functions. The evaluation of IPT system characteristics was conducted based on the AAPM 147 task report. Experiments on spatial drift and reproducibility as well as static and dynamic localization accuracy were carried out to test the efficiency of the IPT system. Measurements of known translational (up to 55.0 mm) set-up errors in three dimensions have been performed on a calibration phantom. The accuracy of positioning was evaluated on an anthropomorphic phantom with five markers attached to the surface; the precision of the tracking ability was investigated through a sinusoidal motion platform. For the monitoring of the respiration, three volunteers contributed to the breathing testing in real time. The spatial drift of the IPT system was 0.65 mm within 60 min to be stable. The reproducibility of position variations were between 0.01 and 0.04 mm. The standard deviation of static marker localization was 0.26 mm. The repositioning accuracy was 0.19 mm, 0.29 mm, and 0.53 mm in the left/right (L/R), superior/inferior (S/I) and anterior/posterior (A/P) directions, respectively. The measured dynamic accuracy was 0.57 mm and discrepancies measured for the respiratory motion tracking was better than 1 mm. The overall positioning accuracy of the IPT system was within 2 mm. In conclusion, the IPT system is an accurate and effective tool for assisting patient positioning in the treatment room. The characteristics of the IPT system can successfully meet the needs for real time external marker tracking and patient positioning as well as respiration

  14. SHAPES - Spatial, High-Accuracy, Position-Encoding Sensor for multi-point, 3-D position measurement of large flexible structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nerheim, N. M

    1987-01-01

    An electro-optical position sensor for precise simultaneous measurement of the 3-D positions of multiple points on large space structures is described. The sensor data rate is sufficient for most control purposes. Range is determined by time-of-flight correlation of short laser pulses returned from retroreflector targets using a streak tube/CCD detector. Angular position is determined from target image locations on a second CCD. Experimental verification of dynamic ranging to multiple targets is discussed.

  15. Physical Activity Level Improves the Predictive Accuracy of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: The ATTICA Study (2002–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Georgousopoulou, Ekavi N.; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Bougatsas, Dimitrios; Chatzigeorgiou, Michael; Kavouras, Stavros A.; Chrysohoou, Christina; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Pitsavos, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although physical activity (PA) has long been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), assessment of PA status has never been used as a part of CVD risk prediction tools. The aim of the present work was to examine whether the inclusion of PA status in a CVD risk model improves its predictive accuracy. Methods: Data from the 10-year follow-up (2002–2012) of the n = 2020 participants (aged 18–89 years) of the ATTICA prospective study were used to test the research hypothesis. The HellenicSCORE (that incorporates age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure levels) was calculated to estimate the baseline 10-year CVD risk; assessment of PA status was based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The estimated CVD risk was tested against the observed 10-year incidence (i.e., development of acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD according to the World Health Organization [WHO]-International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 criteria). Changes in the predictive ability of the nested CVD risk model that contained the HellenicSCORE plus PA assessment were evaluated using Harrell's C and net reclassification index. Results: Both HellenicSCORE and PA status were predictors of future CVD events (P < 0.05). However, the estimating classification bias of the model that included only the HellenicSCORE was significantly reduced when PA assessment was included (Harrel's C = 0.012, P = 0.032); this reduction remained significant even when adjusted for diabetes mellitus and dietary habits (P < 0.05). Conclusions: CVD risk scores seem to be more accurate by incorporating individuals’ PA status; thus, may be more effective tools in primary prevention by efficiently allocating CVD candidates. PMID:27076890

  16. Influence of Ethnicity on the Accuracy of Non-Invasive Scores Predicting Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

    PubMed Central

    Xia, Ming-Feng; Yki-Järvinen, Hannele; Bian, Hua; Lin, Huan-Dong; Yan, Hong-Mei; Chang, Xin-Xia; Zhou, You; Gao, Xin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives Presence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) can predict risks for diabetes, cardiovascular disease and advanced liver disease in the general population. We aimed to establish a non-invasive score for prediction of NAFLD in Han Chinese, the largest ethnic group in the world, and detect whether ethnicity influences the accuracy of such a score. Methods Liver fat content (LFAT) was measured by quantitative ultrasound in 3548 subjects in the Shanghai Changfeng Community and a Chinese score was created using multivariate logistic regression analyses. This new score was internally validated in Chinese and externally in Finns. Its diagnostic performance was compared to the NAFLD liver fat score, fatty liver index (FLI) and hepatic steatosis index (HSI) developed in Finns, Italians and Koreans. We also analyzed how obesity related to LFAT measured by 1H-MRS in 79 Finns and 118 Chinese with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Results The metabolic syndrome and T2D, fasting serum insulin, body mass index (BMI) and AST/ALT ratio were independent predictors of NAFLD in Chinese. The AUROC in the Chinese validation cohort was 0.76 (0.73–0.78) and in Finns 0.73 (0.68–0.78) (p<0.0001). 43%, 27%, 32% and 42% of Chinese had NAFLD when determined by the Chinese score, NAFLD liver fat score (p<0.001 vs. Chinese score), FLI (p<0.001) and HSI (NS). For any given BMI and waist circumference, the Chinese had a markedly higher LFAT than the Finns. Conclusion The predictors of NAFLD in Han Chinese are as in Europids but the Chinese have more LFAT for any given degree of obesity than Europids. Ethnicity needs to be considered when NAFLD is predicted using risk scores. PMID:27579785

  17. Accuracy of finite element analyses of CT scans in predictions of vertebral failure patterns under axial compression and anterior flexion.

    PubMed

    Jackman, Timothy M; DelMonaco, Alex M; Morgan, Elise F

    2016-01-25

    Finite element (FE) models built from quantitative computed tomography (QCT) scans can provide patient-specific estimates of bone strength and fracture risk in the spine. While prior studies demonstrate accurate QCT-based FE predictions of vertebral stiffness and strength, the accuracy of the predicted failure patterns, i.e., the locations where failure occurs within the vertebra and the way in which the vertebra deforms as failure progresses, is less clear. This study used digital volume correlation (DVC) analyses of time-lapse micro-computed tomography (μCT) images acquired during mechanical testing (compression and anterior flexion) of thoracic spine segments (T7-T9, n=28) to measure displacements occurring throughout the T8 vertebral body at the ultimate point. These displacements were compared to those simulated by QCT-based FE analyses of T8. We hypothesized that the FE predictions would be more accurate when the boundary conditions are based on measurements of pressure distributions within intervertebral discs of similar level of disc degeneration vs. boundary conditions representing rigid platens. The FE simulations captured some of the general, qualitative features of the failure patterns; however, displacement errors ranged 12-279%. Contrary to our hypothesis, no differences in displacement errors were found when using boundary conditions representing measurements of disc pressure vs. rigid platens. The smallest displacement errors were obtained using boundary conditions that were measured directly by DVC at the T8 endplates. These findings indicate that further work is needed to develop methods of identifying physiological loading conditions for the vertebral body, for the purpose of achieving robust, patient-specific FE analyses of failure mechanisms.

  18. Improving the Accuracy of Whole Genome Prediction for Complex Traits Using the Results of Genome Wide Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhe; Ober, Ulrike; Erbe, Malena; Zhang, Hao; Gao, Ning; He, Jinlong; Li, Jiaqi; Simianer, Henner

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the whole genomic variation of complex traits to predict the yet-to-be observed phenotypes or unobserved genetic values via whole genome prediction (WGP) and to infer the underlying genetic architecture via genome wide association study (GWAS) is an interesting and fast developing area in the context of human disease studies as well as in animal and plant breeding. Though thousands of significant loci for several species were detected via GWAS in the past decade, they were not used directly to improve WGP due to lack of proper models. Here, we propose a generalized way of building trait-specific genomic relationship matrices which can exploit GWAS results in WGP via a best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) model for which we suggest the name BLUP|GA. Results from two illustrative examples show that using already existing GWAS results from public databases in BLUP|GA improved the accuracy of WGP for two out of the three model traits in a dairy cattle data set, and for nine out of the 11 traits in a rice diversity data set, compared to the reference methods GBLUP and BayesB. While BLUP|GA outperforms BayesB, its required computing time is comparable to GBLUP. Further simulation results suggest that accounting for publicly available GWAS results is potentially more useful for WGP utilizing smaller data sets and/or traits of low heritability, depending on the genetic architecture of the trait under consideration. To our knowledge, this is the first study incorporating public GWAS results formally into the standard GBLUP model and we think that the BLUP|GA approach deserves further investigations in animal breeding, plant breeding as well as human genetics. PMID:24663104

  19. Improving the accuracy of whole genome prediction for complex traits using the results of genome wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhe; Ober, Ulrike; Erbe, Malena; Zhang, Hao; Gao, Ning; He, Jinlong; Li, Jiaqi; Simianer, Henner

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the whole genomic variation of complex traits to predict the yet-to-be observed phenotypes or unobserved genetic values via whole genome prediction (WGP) and to infer the underlying genetic architecture via genome wide association study (GWAS) is an interesting and fast developing area in the context of human disease studies as well as in animal and plant breeding. Though thousands of significant loci for several species were detected via GWAS in the past decade, they were not used directly to improve WGP due to lack of proper models. Here, we propose a generalized way of building trait-specific genomic relationship matrices which can exploit GWAS results in WGP via a best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) model for which we suggest the name BLUP|GA. Results from two illustrative examples show that using already existing GWAS results from public databases in BLUP|GA improved the accuracy of WGP for two out of the three model traits in a dairy cattle data set, and for nine out of the 11 traits in a rice diversity data set, compared to the reference methods GBLUP and BayesB. While BLUP|GA outperforms BayesB, its required computing time is comparable to GBLUP. Further simulation results suggest that accounting for publicly available GWAS results is potentially more useful for WGP utilizing smaller data sets and/or traits of low heritability, depending on the genetic architecture of the trait under consideration. To our knowledge, this is the first study incorporating public GWAS results formally into the standard GBLUP model and we think that the BLUP|GA approach deserves further investigations in animal breeding, plant breeding as well as human genetics.

  20. Happiness as a motivator: positive affect predicts primary control striving for career and educational goals.

    PubMed

    Haase, Claudia M; Poulin, Michael J; Heckhausen, Jutta

    2012-08-01

    What motivates individuals to invest time and effort and overcome obstacles (i.e., strive for primary control) when pursuing important goals? We propose that positive affect predicts primary control striving for career and educational goals, and we explore the mediating role of control beliefs. In Study 1, positive affect predicted primary control striving for career goals in a two-wave longitudinal study of a U.S. sample. In Study 2, positive affect predicted primary control striving for career and educational goals and objective career outcomes in a six-wave longitudinal study of a German sample. Control beliefs partially mediated the longitudinal associations with primary control striving. Thus, when individuals experience positive affect, they become more motivated to invest time and effort, and overcome obstacles when pursuing their goals, in part because they believe they have more control over attaining their goals. PMID:22569224

  1. Mean Expected Error in Prediction of Total Body Water: A True Accuracy Comparison between Bioimpedance Spectroscopy and Single Frequency Regression Equations

    PubMed Central

    Abtahi, Shirin; Abtahi, Farhad; Ellegård, Lars; Johannsson, Gudmundur; Bosaeus, Ingvar

    2015-01-01

    For several decades electrical bioimpedance (EBI) has been used to assess body fluid distribution and body composition. Despite the development of several different approaches for assessing total body water (TBW), it remains uncertain whether bioimpedance spectroscopic (BIS) approaches are more accurate than single frequency regression equations. The main objective of this study was to answer this question by calculating the expected accuracy of a single measurement for different EBI methods. The results of this study showed that all methods produced similarly high correlation and concordance coefficients, indicating good accuracy as a method. Even the limits of agreement produced from the Bland-Altman analysis indicated that the performance of single frequency, Sun's prediction equations, at population level was close to the performance of both BIS methods; however, when comparing the Mean Absolute Percentage Error value between the single frequency prediction equations and the BIS methods, a significant difference was obtained, indicating slightly better accuracy for the BIS methods. Despite the higher accuracy of BIS methods over 50 kHz prediction equations at both population and individual level, the magnitude of the improvement was small. Such slight improvement in accuracy of BIS methods is suggested insufficient to warrant their clinical use where the most accurate predictions of TBW are required, for example, when assessing over-fluidic status on dialysis. To reach expected errors below 4-5%, novel and individualized approaches must be developed to improve the accuracy of bioimpedance-based methods for the advent of innovative personalized health monitoring applications. PMID:26137489

  2. Predicting the Incidence of Smear Positive Tuberculosis Cases in Iran Using Time Series Analysis

    PubMed Central

    MOOSAZADEH, Mahmood; KHANJANI, Narges; NASEHI, Mahshid; BAHRAMPOUR, Abbas

    2015-01-01

    Background: Determining the temporal variation and forecasting the incidence of smear positive tuberculosis (TB) can play an important role in promoting the TB control program. Its results may be used as a decision-supportive tool for planning and allocating resources. The present study forecasts the incidence of smear positive TB in Iran. Methods: This a longitudinal study using monthly tuberculosis incidence data recorded in the Iranian National Tuberculosis Control Program. The sum of registered cases in each month created 84 time points. Time series methods were used for analysis. Based on the residual chart of ACF, PACF, Ljung-Box tests and the lowest levels of AIC and BIC, the most suitable model was selected. Results: From April 2005 until March 2012, 34012 smear positive TB cases were recorded. The mean of TB monthly incidence was 404.9 (SD=54.7). The highest number of cases was registered in May and the difference in monthly incidence of smear positive TB was significant (P<0.001). SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was selected as the most adequate model for prediction. It was predicted that the incidence of smear positive TB for 2015 will be about 9.8 per 100,000 people. Conclusion: Based on the seasonal pattern of smear positive TB recorded cases, seasonal ARIMA model was suitable for predicting its incidence. Meanwhile, prediction results show an increasing trend of smear positive TB cases in Iran. PMID:26744711

  3. Design of a low-density SNP chip for the main Australian sheep breeds and its effect on imputation and genomic prediction accuracy.

    PubMed

    Bolormaa, S; Gore, K; van der Werf, J H J; Hayes, B J; Daetwyler, H D

    2015-10-01

    Genotyping sheep for genome-wide SNPs at lower density and imputing to a higher density would enable cost-effective implementation of genomic selection, provided imputation was accurate enough. Here, we describe the design of a low-density (12k) SNP chip and evaluate the accuracy of imputation from the 12k SNP genotypes to 50k SNP genotypes in the major Australian sheep breeds. In addition, the impact of imperfect imputation on genomic predictions was evaluated by comparing the accuracy of genomic predictions for 15 novel meat traits including carcass and meat quality and omega fatty acid traits in sheep, from 12k SNP genotypes, imputed 50k SNP genotypes and real 50k SNP genotypes. The 12k chip design included 12 223 SNPs with a high minor allele frequency that were selected with intermarker spacing of 50-475 kb. SNPs for parentage and horned or polled tests also were represented. Chromosome ends were enriched with SNPs to reduce edge effects on imputation. The imputation performance of the 12k SNP chip was evaluated using 50k SNP genotypes of 4642 animals from six breeds in three different scenarios: (1) within breed, (2) single breed from multibreed reference and (3) multibreed from a single-breed reference. The highest imputation accuracies were found with scenario 2, whereas scenario 3 was the worst, as expected. Using scenario 2, the average imputation accuracy in Border Leicester, Polled Dorset, Merino, White Suffolk and crosses was 0.95, 0.95, 0.92, 0.91 and 0.93 respectively. Imputation scenario 2 was used to impute 50k genotypes for 10 396 animals with novel meat trait phenotypes to compare genomic prediction accuracy using genomic best linear unbiased prediction (GBLUP) with real and imputed 50k genotypes. The weighted mean imputation accuracy achieved was 0.92. The average accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs) based on only 12k data was 0.08 across traits and breeds, but accuracies varied widely. The mean GBLUP accuracies with imputed

  4. Accuracy of surface registration compared to conventional volumetric registration in patient positioning for head-and-neck radiotherapy: A simulation study using patient data

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Youngjun; Li, Ruijiang; Na, Yong Hum; Xing, Lei; Lee, Rena

    2014-12-15

    Purpose: 3D optical surface imaging has been applied to patient positioning in radiation therapy (RT). The optical patient positioning system is advantageous over conventional method using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in that it is radiation free, frameless, and is capable of real-time monitoring. While the conventional radiographic method uses volumetric registration, the optical system uses surface matching for patient alignment. The relative accuracy of these two methods has not yet been sufficiently investigated. This study aims to investigate the theoretical accuracy of the surface registration based on a simulation study using patient data. Methods: This study compares the relative accuracy of surface and volumetric registration in head-and-neck RT. The authors examined 26 patient data sets, each consisting of planning CT data acquired before treatment and patient setup CBCT data acquired at the time of treatment. As input data of surface registration, patient’s skin surfaces were created by contouring patient skin from planning CT and treatment CBCT. Surface registration was performed using the iterative closest points algorithm by point–plane closest, which minimizes the normal distance between source points and target surfaces. Six degrees of freedom (three translations and three rotations) were used in both surface and volumetric registrations and the results were compared. The accuracy of each method was estimated by digital phantom tests. Results: Based on the results of 26 patients, the authors found that the average and maximum root-mean-square translation deviation between the surface and volumetric registrations were 2.7 and 5.2 mm, respectively. The residual error of the surface registration was calculated to have an average of 0.9 mm and a maximum of 1.7 mm. Conclusions: Surface registration may lead to results different from those of the conventional volumetric registration. Only limited accuracy can be achieved for patient

  5. Incremental validity of positive and negative valence in predicting personality disorder.

    PubMed

    Simms, Leonard J; Yufik, Tom; Gros, Daniel F

    2010-04-01

    The Big Seven model of personality includes five dimensions similar to the Big Five model as well as two evaluative dimensions—Positive Valence (PV) and Negative Valence (NV)—which reflect extremely positive and negative person descriptors, respectively. Recent theory and research have suggested that PV and NV predict significant variance in personality disorder (PD) above that predicted by the Big Five, but firm conclusions have not been possible because previous studies have been limited to only single measures of PV, NV, and the Big Five traits. In the present study, we replicated and extended previous findings using three markers of all key constructs—including PV, NV, and the Big Five—in a diverse sample of 338 undergraduates. Results of hierarchical multiple regression analyses revealed that PV incrementally predicted Narcissistic and Histrionic PDs above the Big Five and that NV nonspecifically incremented the prediction of most PDs. Implications for dimensional models of personality pathology are discussed.

  6. Variable selection procedures before partial least squares regression enhance the accuracy of milk fatty acid composition predicted by mid-infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Gottardo, P; Penasa, M; Lopez-Villalobos, N; De Marchi, M

    2016-10-01

    Mid-infrared spectroscopy is a high-throughput technique that allows the prediction of milk quality traits on a large-scale. The accuracy of prediction achievable using partial least squares (PLS) regression is usually high for fatty acids (FA) that are more abundant in milk, whereas it decreases for FA that are present in low concentrations. Two variable selection methods, uninformative variable elimination or a genetic algorithm combined with PLS regression, were used in the present study to investigate their effect on the accuracy of prediction equations for milk FA profile expressed either as a concentration on total identified FA or a concentration in milk. For FA expressed on total identified FA, the coefficient of determination of cross-validation from PLS alone was low (0.25) for the prediction of polyunsaturated FA and medium (0.70) for saturated FA. The coefficient of determination increased to 0.54 and 0.95 for polyunsaturated and saturated FA, respectively, when FA were expressed on a milk basis and using PLS alone. Both algorithms before PLS regression improved the accuracy of prediction for FA, especially for FA that are usually difficult to predict; for example, the improvement with respect to the PLS regression ranged from 9 to 80%. In general, FA were better predicted when their concentrations were expressed on a milk basis. These results might favor the use of prediction equations in the dairy industry for genetic purposes and payment system. PMID:27522434

  7. Computationally predicting protein-RNA interactions using only positive and unlabeled examples.

    PubMed

    Cheng, Zhanzhan; Zhou, Shuigeng; Guan, Jihong

    2015-06-01

    Protein-RNA interactions (PRIs) are considerably important in a wide variety of cellular processes, ranging from transcriptional and post-transcriptional regulations of gene expression to the active defense of host against virus. With the development of high throughput technology, large amounts of PRI information is available for computationally predicting unknown PRIs. In recent years, a number of computational methods for predicting PRIs have been developed in the literature, which usually artificially construct negative samples based on verified nonredundant datasets of PRIs to train classifiers. However, such negative samples are not real negative samples, some even may be unknown positive samples. Consequently, the classifiers trained with such training datasets cannot achieve satisfactory prediction performance. In this paper, we propose a novel method PRIPU that employs biased-support vector machine (SVM) for predicting Protein-RNA Interactions using only Positive and Unlabeled examples. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that predicts PRIs using only positive and unlabeled samples. We first collect known PRIs as our benchmark datasets and extract sequence-based features to represent each PRI. To reduce the dimension of feature vectors for lowering computational cost, we select a subset of features by a filter-based feature selection method. Then, biased-SVM is employed to train prediction models with different PRI datasets. To evaluate the new method, we also propose a new performance measure called explicit positive recall (EPR), which is specifically suitable for the task of learning positive and unlabeled data. Experimental results over three datasets show that our method not only outperforms four existing methods, but also is able to predict unknown PRIs. Source code, datasets and related documents of PRIPU are available at: http://admis.fudan.edu.cn/projects/pripu.htm . PMID:25790785

  8. The Positive Predictive Value of Lyme Elisa for the Diagnosis of Lyme Disease in Children.

    PubMed

    Lipsett, Susan C; Pollock, Nira R; Branda, John A; Gordon, Caroline D; Gordon, Catherine R; Lantos, Paul M; Nigrovic, Lise E

    2015-11-01

    By using a Lyme enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), we demonstrated that high ELISA index values are strongly predictive of Lyme disease. In children with clinical presentations consistent with Lyme disease, ELISA index values ≥3.0 had a positive predictive value of 99.4% (95% confidence interval: 98.1-99.8%) for Lyme disease, making a supplemental Western immunoblot potentially unnecessary.

  9. Accuracy of Computed Tomography for Predicting Pathologic Nodal Extracapsular Extension in Patients With Head-and-Neck Cancer Undergoing Initial Surgical Resection

    SciTech Connect

    Prabhu, Roshan S.; Magliocca, Kelly R.; Hanasoge, Sheela; Aiken, Ashley H.; Hudgins, Patricia A.; Hall, William A.; Chen, Susie A.; Eaton, Bree R.; Higgins, Kristin A.; Saba, Nabil F.; Beitler, Jonathan J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: Nodal extracapsular extension (ECE) in patients with head-and-neck cancer increases the loco-regional failure risk and is an indication for adjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT). To reduce the risk of requiring trimodality therapy, patients with head-and-neck cancer who are surgical candidates are often treated with definitive CRT when preoperative computed tomographic imaging suggests radiographic ECE. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of preoperative CT imaging for predicting pathologic nodal ECE (pECE). Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 432 consecutive patients with oral cavity or locally advanced/nonfunctional laryngeal cancer who underwent preoperative CT imaging before initial surgical resection and neck dissection. Specimens with pECE had the extent of ECE graded on a scale from 1 to 4. Results: Radiographic ECE was documented in 46 patients (10.6%), and pECE was observed in 87 (20.1%). Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 43.7%, 97.7%, 82.6%, and 87.3%, respectively. The sensitivity of radiographic ECE increased from 18.8% for grade 1 to 2 ECE, to 52.9% for grade 3, and 72.2% for grade 4. Radiographic ECE criteria of adjacent structure invasion was a better predictor than irregular borders/fat stranding for pECE. Conclusions: Radiographic ECE has poor sensitivity, but excellent specificity for pECE in patients who undergo initial surgical resection. PPV and NPV are reasonable for clinical decision making. The performance of preoperative CT imaging increased as pECE grade increased. Patients with resectable head-and-neck cancer with radiographic ECE based on adjacent structure invasion are at high risk for high-grade pECE requiring adjuvant CRT when treated with initial surgery; definitive CRT as an alternative should be considered where appropriate.

  10. Theoretical prediction of stationary positions in the rectangular chamber during asymmetric electroosmotic flow

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1985-01-01

    Most microscopic cell electrophoretic work depends on the theortical prediction of stationary positions by Smoluchowski and Komagata. Their theoretical solutions are based on the assumption that the electroosmotic flow in a chamber is symmetric. Because experiences with the rectangular chamber indicate that symmetric flow occurs during less than 8% of the experiments, the existing theory for stationary position determination is expanded to include the more general case of asymmetric flow. Smoluchowski's equation for symmetric electroosmotic flow in a rectangular chamber having a width much smaller than its height or length is examined. Smoluchowski's approach is used to approximate stationary positions in rectangular chambers with height/width ratios greater than 40. Support for the theoretical prediction of stationary positions using is given by three types of experimental evidence.

  11. Mediofrontal event-related potentials in response to positive, negative and unsigned prediction errors.

    PubMed

    Sambrook, Thomas D; Goslin, Jeremy

    2014-08-01

    Reinforcement learning models make use of reward prediction errors (RPEs), the difference between an expected and obtained reward. There is evidence that the brain computes RPEs, but an outstanding question is whether positive RPEs ("better than expected") and negative RPEs ("worse than expected") are represented in a single integrated system. An electrophysiological component, feedback related negativity, has been claimed to encode an RPE but its relative sensitivity to the utility of positive and negative RPEs remains unclear. This study explored the question by varying the utility of positive and negative RPEs in a design that controlled for other closely related properties of feedback and could distinguish utility from salience. It revealed a mediofrontal sensitivity to utility, for positive RPEs at 275-310ms and for negative RPEs at 310-390ms. These effects were preceded and succeeded by a response consistent with an unsigned prediction error, or "salience" coding.

  12. Personality Moderates the Interaction between Positive and Negative Daily Events Predicting Negative Affect and Stress

    PubMed Central

    Longua, Julie; DeHart, Tracy; Tennen, Howard; Armeli, Stephen

    2009-01-01

    A 30-day diary study examined personality moderators (neuroticism and extraversion) of the interaction between positive and negative daily events predicting daily negative affect and night-time stress. Multilevel analyses revealed positive daily events buffered the effect of negative daily events on negative affect for individuals low in neuroticism and individuals high in extraversion, but not for individuals high in neuroticism or individuals low in extraversion. Positive daily events also buffered the effect of negative daily events on that night’s stress, but only for participants low in neuroticism. As such, this research linked today’s events to tonight’s stressfulness. This study advances our understanding of how neuroticism and extraversion influence within-person associations between positive and negative events predicting negative affect and stress. PMID:20161239

  13. Accuracy analysis on C/A code and P(Y) code pseudo-range of GPS dual frequency receiver and application in point positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Xiuying; Fan, Shijie; Guo, Jiming

    2008-10-01

    When the Anti-Spoofing (A-S) is active, the civilian users have some difficulties in using the P(Y) code for precise navigation and positioning. Z-tracking technique is one of the effective methods to acquire the P(Y) code. In this paper, the accuracy of pseudoranges from C/A code and P(Y) code for dual frequency GPS receiver is discussed. The principle of measuring the encrypted P(Y) code is described firstly, then a large data set from IGS tracking stations is utilized for analysis and verification with the help of a precise point positioning software developed by authors. Especially, P(Y) code pseudoranges of civilian GPS receivers allow eliminating/reducing the effect of ionospheric delay and improve the precision of positioning. The point positioning experiments for this are made in the end.

  14. Robotic-based carbon ion therapy and patient positioning in 6 degrees of freedom: setup accuracy of two standard immobilization devices used in carbon ion therapy and IMRT

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To investigate repositioning accuracy in particle radiotherapy in 6 degrees of freedom (DOF) and intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT, 3 DOF) for two immobilization devices (Scotchcast masks vs thermoplastic head masks) currently in use at our institution for fractionated radiation therapy in head and neck cancer patients. Methods and materials Position verifications in patients treated with carbon ion therapy and IMRT for head and neck malignancies were evaluated. Most patients received combined treatment regimen (IMRT plus carbon ion boost), immobilization was achieved with either Scotchcast or thermoplastic head masks. Position corrections in robotic-based carbon ion therapy allowing 6 DOF were compared to IMRT allowing corrections in 3 DOF for two standard immobilization devices. In total, 838 set-up controls of 38 patients were analyzed. Results Robotic-based position correction including correction of rotations was well tolerated and without discomfort. Standard deviations of translational components were between 0.5 and 0.8 mm for Scotchcast and 0.7 and 1.3 mm for thermoplastic masks in 6 DOF and 1.2 - 1.4 mm and 1.0 - 1.1 mm in 3 DOF respectively. Mean overall displacement vectors were between 2.1 mm (Scotchcast) and 2.9 mm (thermoplastic masks) in 6 DOF and 3.9 - 3.0 mm in 3 DOF respectively. Displacement vectors were lower when correction in 6 DOF was allowed as opposed to 3 DOF only, which was maintained at the traditional action level of > 3 mm for position correction in the pre-on-board imaging era. Conclusion Setup accuracy for both systems was within the expected range. Smaller shifts were required when 6 DOF were available for correction as opposed to 3 DOF. Where highest possible positioning accuracy is required, frequent image guidance is mandatory to achieve best possible plan delivery and maintenance of sharp gradients and optimal normal tissue sparing inherent in carbon ion therapy. PMID:22458824

  15. Improvement of walking speed prediction by accelerometry and altimetry, validated by satellite positioning.

    PubMed

    Perrin, O; Terrier, P; Ladetto, Q; Merminod, B; Schutz, Y

    2000-03-01

    Activity monitors based on accelerometry are used to predict the speed and energy cost of walking at 0% slope, but not at other inclinations. Parallel measurements of body accelerations and altitude variation were studied to determine whether walking speed prediction could be improved. Fourteen subjects walked twice along a 1.3 km circuit with substantial slope variations (-17% to +17%). The parameters recorded were body acceleration using a uni-axial accelerometer, altitude variation using differential barometry, and walking speed using satellite positioning (DGPS). Linear regressions were calculated between acceleration and walking speed, and between acceleration/altitude and walking speed. These predictive models, calculated using the data from the first circuit run, were used to predict speed during the second circuit. Finally the predicted velocity was compared with the measured one. The result was that acceleration alone failed to predict speed (mean r = 0.4). Adding altitude variation improved the prediction (mean r = 0.7). With regard to the altitude/acceleration-speed relationship, substantial inter-individual variation was found. It is concluded that accelerometry, combined with altitude measurement, can assess position variations of humans provided inter-individual variation is taken into account. It is also confirmed that DGPS can be used for outdoor walking speed measurements, opening up new perspectives in the field of biomechanics.

  16. Low-dose CT imaging of radio-opaque markers for assessing human rotator cuff repair: accuracy, repeatability and the effect of arm position.

    PubMed

    Derwin, K A; Milks, R A; Davidson, I; Iannotti, J P; McCarron, J A; Bey, M J

    2012-02-01

    Previous studies have used radiostereometric analysis (RSA) to assess the integrity and mechanical properties of repaired tendons and ligament grafts. A conceptually similar approach is to use CT imaging to measure the 3D position and distance between implanted markers. The purpose of this study was to quantify the accuracy and repeatability of measuring the position and distance between metallic markers placed in the rotator cuff using low-dose CT imaging. We also investigated the effect of repeated or variable positions of the arm on position and distance measures. Six human patients had undergone rotator cuff repair and placement of tantalum beads in the rotator cuff at least one year prior to participating in this study. On a single day each patient underwent nine low-dose CT scans in seven unique arm positions. CT scans were analyzed to assess bias, precision and RMS error of the measurement technique. The effect of repeated or variable positions of the arm on the 3D position of the beads and the distance between these beads and suture anchors in the humeral head were also assessed. Results showed the CT imaging method is accurate and repeatable to within 0.7 mm. Further, measures of bead position and anchor-to-bead distance are influenced by arm position and location of the bead within the rotator cuff. Beads located in the posterior rotator cuff moved medially as much as 20 mm in abduction or external rotation. When clinically relevant CT arm positions such as the hand on umbilicus or at side were repeated, bead position varied less than 4 mm in any anatomic direction and anchor-to-bead distance varied +2.8 to -1.6 mm (RMS 1.3 mm). We conclude that a range of ± 3 mm is a conservative estimate of the uncertainty in anchor-to-bead distance for patients repeatedly scanned in clinically-relevant arm positions.

  17. Further improvements in deconvolution of pass-through paleomagnetic measurement data: Accuracy of positioning and sensor response

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oda, H.; Xuan, C.; Yamamoto, Y.

    2015-12-01

    Pass-through superconducting rock magnetometer (SRM) is one of the most important tools for modern paleomagnetism research. It offers rapid and continuous measurements of weak remanent magnetization preserved in various geological archives. However, pass-through SRM measurements are inevitably smoothed and even distorted due to the convolution effect of the SRM sensor response, and deconvolution is necessary to restore high-resolution signal from pass-through measurements. Reliable deconvolution relies on accurate estimate of the SRM sensor response and our understanding of errors associated with sample measurements. In this presentation, we introduce new practical tool and procedure to facilitate rapid and accurate measurements of SRM sensor response with demonstration using an SRM at the Kochi Core Center, Japan. We also report accurate measurements of SRM tray positions measured using laser interferometry. The measured positions with an actual u-channel sample on the tray show vibrations with peak amplitudes of ~50μm following each stop of the tray. The vibrations diminish towards background level in ~0.4 sec. Comparison with the positions expected from the stepping motor counts show random discrepancies with standard deviations of 0.1~0.2 mm. Measurements with u-channel show higher standard deviations including significant stepwise changes of up to ~0.5mm.

  18. Extreme Appraisals of Internal States and Bipolar Symptoms: The Hypomanic Attitudes and Positive Predictions Inventory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dodd, Alyson L.; Mansell, Warren; Morrison, Anthony P.; Tai, Sara

    2011-01-01

    The Hypomanic Attitudes and Positive Predictions Inventory (HAPPI; W. Mansell, 2006) was developed to assess multiple, extreme, self-relevant appraisals of internal states. The present study aimed to validate the HAPPI in a clinical sample. Participants (N = 50) with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (confirmed by a structured clinical interview)…

  19. Critical Features Predicting Sustained Implementation of School-Wide Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mathews, Susanna; McIntosh, Kent; Frank, Jennifer L.; May, Seth L.

    2014-01-01

    The current study explored the extent to which a common measure of perceived implementation of critical features of Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) predicted fidelity of implementation 3 years later. Respondents included school personnel from 261 schools across the United States implementing PBIS. School teams completed the…

  20. Critical Features Predicting Sustained Implementation of School-Wide Positive Behavior Support

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mathews, Susanna; McIntosh, Kent; Frank, Jennifer; May, Seth

    2014-01-01

    The current study explored the extent to which a common measure of perceived implementation of critical features of School-wide Positive Behavior Support (SWPBS) predicted fidelity of implementation 3 years later. Respondents included school personnel from 261 schools across the United States implementing SWPBS. School teams completed the…

  1. A positive Babinski reflex predicts delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae in Chinese patients with carbon monoxide poisoning.

    PubMed

    Zou, Jian-Fang; Guo, Qiming; Shao, Hua; Li, Bin; Du, Yuxiu; Liu, Maofeng; Liu, Fengling; Dai, Lixin; Chung, Min-Hsien; Lin, Hung-Jung; Guo, How-Ran; Yang, Tzu-Meng; Huang, Chien-Cheng; Hsu, Chien-Chin

    2014-01-01

    As the human population increased in China, the carbon monoxide is a serious environmental toxin in public health. However, predicting the delayed neuropsychiatric sequelae (DNS) of carbon monoxide poisoning (COP) has not been well studied. We investigated the independent predictors of DNS in patients with COP. This study was conducted at four hospitals in China. Data were retrospectively collected from 258 patients with COP between November 1990 and October 2011. DNS was the primary endpoint. A positive Babinski reflex was the independent predictor for DNS: sensitivity = 53.8% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 26.1-79.6), specificity = 88.6% (95% CI: 83.7-92.1), positive predictive value (PPV) = 20.0% (95% CI: 9.1-37.5), and negative predictive value (NPV) = 97.3% (95% CI: 94.0-98.9). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.712 (95% CI: 0.544-0.880). A positive Babinski reflex was very memorable, immediately available, and applicable in clinical practice. Even when the sensitivity and PPV of a positive Babinski reflex were unsatisfactory, it had a good specificity and NPV for excluding the risk of DNS. In patients without a positive Babinski reflex, the risk for DNS was only 2.7%. This finding may help physicians make decisions about dispositions for patients with COP.

  2. Toddler Inhibitory Control, Bold Response to Novelty, and Positive Affect Predict Externalizing Symptoms in Kindergarten

    PubMed Central

    Buss, Kristin A.; Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Morales, Santiago; Robinson, Emily

    2013-01-01

    Poor inhibitory control and bold-approach have been found to predict the development of externalizing behavior problems in young children. Less research has examined how positive affect may influence the development of externalizing behavior in the context of low inhibitory control and high approach. We used a multimethod approach to examine how observed toddler inhibitory control, bold-approach, and positive affect predicted externalizing outcomes (observed, adult- and self-reported) in additive and interactive ways at the beginning of kindergarten. 24-month-olds (N = 110) participated in a laboratory visit and 84 were followed up in kindergarten for externalizing behaviors. Overall, children who were low in inhibitory control, high in bold-approach, and low in positive affect at 24-months of age were at greater risk for externalizing behaviors during kindergarten. PMID:25018589

  3. Positive and negative family emotional climate differentially predict youth anxiety and depression via distinct affective pathways.

    PubMed

    Luebbe, Aaron M; Bell, Debora J

    2014-08-01

    A socioaffective specificity model was tested in which positive and negative affect differentially mediated relations of family emotional climate to youth internalizing symptoms. Participants were 134 7(th)-9(th) grade adolescents (65 girls; 86 % Caucasian) and mothers who completed measures of emotion-related family processes, experienced affect, anxiety, and depression. Results suggested that a family environment characterized by maternal psychological control and family negative emotion expressiveness predicted greater anxiety and depression, and was mediated by experienced negative affect. Conversely, a family emotional environment characterized by low maternal warmth and low positive emotion expressiveness predicted only depression, and was mediated through lowered experienced positive affect. This study synthesizes a theoretical model of typical family emotion socialization with an extant affect-based model of shared and unique aspects of anxiety and depression symptom expression.

  4. Study of accuracy in the position determination with SALSA, a γ-scanning system for the characterization of segmented HPGe detectors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hernandez-Prieto, A.; Quintana, B.; Martìn, S.; Domingo-Pardo, C.

    2016-07-01

    Accurate characterization of the electric response of segmented high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors as a function of the interaction position is one of the current goals of the Nuclear Physics community seeking to perform γ-ray tracking or even imaging with these detectors. For this purpose, scanning devices must be developed to achieve the signal-position association with the highest precision. With a view to studying the accuracy achieved with SALSA, the SAlamanca Lyso-based Scanning Array, here we report a detailed study on the uncertainty sources and their effect in the position determination inside the HPGe detector to be scanned. The optimization performed on the design of SALSA, aimed at minimizing the effect of the uncertainty sources, afforded an intrinsic uncertainty of ∼2 mm for large coaxial detectors and ∼1 mm for planar ones.

  5. Development of X-Y Servo Pneumatic-Piezoelectric Hybrid Actuators for Position Control with High Response, Large Stroke and Nanometer Accuracy

    PubMed Central

    Chiang, Mao-Hsiung

    2010-01-01

    This study aims to develop a X-Y dual-axial intelligent servo pneumatic-piezoelectric hybrid actuator for position control with high response, large stroke (250 mm, 200 mm) and nanometer accuracy (20 nm). In each axis, the rodless pneumatic actuator serves to position in coarse stroke and the piezoelectric actuator compensates in fine stroke. Thus, the overall control systems of the single axis become a dual-input single-output (DISO) system. Although the rodless pneumatic actuator has relatively larger friction force, it has the advantage of mechanism for multi-axial development. Thus, the X-Y dual-axial positioning system is developed based on the servo pneumatic-piezoelectric hybrid actuator. In addition, the decoupling self-organizing fuzzy sliding mode control is developed as the intelligent control strategies. Finally, the proposed novel intelligent X-Y dual-axial servo pneumatic-piezoelectric hybrid actuators are implemented and verified experimentally. PMID:22319266

  6. Accuracy of Prediction Equations to Assess Percentage of Body Fat in Children and Adolescents with Down Syndrome Compared to Air Displacement Plethysmography

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gonzalez-Aguero, A.; Vicente-Rodriguez, G.; Ara, I.; Moreno, L. A.; Casajus, J. A.

    2011-01-01

    To determine the accuracy of the published percentage body fat (%BF) prediction equations (Durnin et al., Johnston et al., Brook and Slaughter et al.) from skinfold thickness compared to air displacement plethysmography (ADP) in children and adolescents with Down syndrome (DS). Twenty-eight children and adolescents with DS (10-20 years old; 12…

  7. Predictive Utility and Classification Accuracy of Oral Reading Fluency and the Measures of Academic Progress for the Wisconsin Knowledge and Concepts Exam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ball, Carrie R.; O'Connor, Edward

    2016-01-01

    This study examined the predictive validity and classification accuracy of two commonly used universal screening measures relative to a statewide achievement test. Results indicated that second-grade performance on oral reading fluency and the Measures of Academic Progress (MAP), together with special education status, explained 68% of the…

  8. Improved accuracy and speed in scanning probe microscopy by image reconstruction from non-gridded position sensor data.

    PubMed

    Ziegler, Dominik; Meyer, Travis R; Farnham, Rodrigo; Brune, Christoph; Bertozzi, Andrea L; Ashby, Paul D

    2013-08-23

    Scanning probe microscopy (SPM) has facilitated many scientific discoveries utilizing its strengths of spatial resolution, non-destructive characterization and realistic in situ environments. However, accurate spatial data are required for quantitative applications but this is challenging for SPM especially when imaging at higher frame rates. We present a new operation mode for scanning probe microscopy that uses advanced image processing techniques to render accurate images based on position sensor data. This technique, which we call sensor inpainting, frees the scanner to no longer be at a specific location at a given time. This drastically reduces the engineering effort of position control and enables the use of scan waveforms that are better suited for the high inertia nanopositioners of SPM. While in raster scanning, typically only trace or retrace images are used for display, in Archimedean spiral scans 100% of the data can be displayed and at least a two-fold increase in temporal or spatial resolution is achieved. In the new mode, the grid size of the final generated image is an independent variable. Inpainting to a few times more pixels than the samples creates images that more accurately represent the ground truth.

  9. Accuracy of Ultrasound-Based Image Guidance for Daily Positioning of the Upper Abdomen: An Online Comparison With Cone Beam CT

    SciTech Connect

    Boda-Heggemann, Judit Mennemeyer, Philipp; Wertz, Hansjoerg; Riesenacker, Nadja; Kuepper, Beate; Lohr, Frank; Wenz, Frederik

    2009-07-01

    Purpose: Image-guided intensity-modulated radiotherapy can improve protection of organs at risk when large abdominal target volumes are irradiated. We estimated the daily positioning accuracy of ultrasound-based image guidance for abdominal target volumes by a direct comparison of daily imaging obtained with cone beam computed tomography (CBCT). Methods and Materials: Daily positioning (n = 83 positionings) of 15 patients was completed by using ultrasound guidance after an initial CBCT was obtained. Residual error after ultrasound was estimated by comparison with a second CBCT. Ultrasound image quality was visually rated using a scale of 1 to 4. Results: Of 15 patients, 7 patients had good sonographic imaging quality, 5 patients had satisfactory sonographic quality, and 3 patients were excluded because of unsatisfactory sonographic quality. When image quality was good, residual errors after ultrasound were -0.1 {+-} 3.11 mm in the x direction (left-right; group systematic error M = -0.09 mm; standard deviation [SD] of systematic error, {sigma} = 1.37 mm; SD of the random error, {sigma} = 2.99 mm), 0.93 {+-} 4.31 mm in the y direction (superior-inferior, M = 1.12 mm; {sigma} = 2.96 mm; {sigma} = 3.39 mm), and 0.71 {+-} 3.15 mm in the z direction (anteroposterior; M = 1.01 mm; {sigma} = 2.46 mm; {sigma} = 2.24 mm). For patients with satisfactory image quality, residual error after ultrasound was -0.6 {+-} 5.26 mm in the x (M = 0.07 mm; {sigma} = 5.67 mm; {sigma} = 4.86 mm), 1.76 {+-} 4.92 mm in the y (M = 3.54 mm; {sigma} = 4.1 mm; {sigma} = 5.29 mm), and 1.19 {+-} 4.75 mm in the z (M = 0.82 mm; {sigma} = 2.86 mm; {sigma} = 3.05 mm) directions. Conclusions: In patients from whom good sonographic image quality could be obtained, ultrasound improved daily positioning accuracy. In the case of satisfactory image quality, ultrasound guidance improved accuracy compared to that of skin marks only minimally. If sonographic image quality was unsatisfactory, daily CBCT

  10. Accuracy of an infrared marker-based patient positioning system (ExacTrac®) for stereotactic body radiotherapy in localizing the planned isocenter using fiducial markers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Montes-Rodríguez, María de los Ángeles; Hernández-Bojórquez, Mariana; Martínez-Gómez, Alma Angélica; Contreras-Pérez, Agustín; Negrete-Hernández, Ingrid Mireya; Hernández-Oviedo, Jorge Omar; Mitsoura, Eleni; Santiago-Concha, Bernardino Gabriel

    2014-11-01

    Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) requires a controlled immobilization and position monitoring of patient and target. The purpose of this work is to analyze the performance of the imaging system ExacTrac® (ETX) using infrared and fiducial markers. Materials and methods: In order to assure the accuracy of isocenter localization, a Quality Assurance procedure was applied using an infrared marker-based positioning system. Scans were acquired of an inhouse-agar gel and solid water phantom with infrared spheres. In the inner part of the phantom, three reference markers were delineated as reference and one pellet was place internally; which was assigned as the isocenter. The iPlan® RT Dose treatment planning system. Images were exported to the ETX console. Images were acquired with the ETX to check the correctness of the isocenter placement. Adjustments were made in 6D the reference markers were used to fuse the images. Couch shifts were registered. The procedure was repeated for verification purposes. Results: The data recorded of the verifications in translational and rotational movements showed averaged 3D spatial uncertainties of 0.31 ± 0.42 mm respectively 0.82° ± 0.46° in the phantom and the first correction of these uncertainties were of 1.51 ± 1.14 mm respectively and 1.37° ± 0.61°. Conclusions: This study shows a high accuracy and repeatability in positioning the selected isocenter. The ETX-system for verifying the treatment isocenter position has the ability to monitor the tracing position of interest, making it possible to be used for SBRT positioning within uncertainty ≤1mm.

  11. Accuracy of an infrared marker-based patient positioning system (ExacTrac®) for stereotactic body radiotherapy in localizing the planned isocenter using fiducial markers

    SciTech Connect

    Montes-Rodríguez, María de los Ángeles Mitsoura, Eleni; Hernández-Bojórquez, Mariana; Martínez-Gómez, Alma Angélica; Contreras-Pérez, Agustín; Negrete-Hernández, Ingrid Mireya; Hernández-Oviedo, Jorge Omar; Santiago-Concha, Bernardino Gabriel

    2014-11-07

    Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy (SBRT) requires a controlled immobilization and position monitoring of patient and target. The purpose of this work is to analyze the performance of the imaging system ExacTrac® (ETX) using infrared and fiducial markers. Materials and methods: In order to assure the accuracy of isocenter localization, a Quality Assurance procedure was applied using an infrared marker-based positioning system. Scans were acquired of an inhouse-agar gel and solid water phantom with infrared spheres. In the inner part of the phantom, three reference markers were delineated as reference and one pellet was place internally; which was assigned as the isocenter. The iPlan® RT Dose treatment planning system. Images were exported to the ETX console. Images were acquired with the ETX to check the correctness of the isocenter placement. Adjustments were made in 6D the reference markers were used to fuse the images. Couch shifts were registered. The procedure was repeated for verification purposes. Results: The data recorded of the verifications in translational and rotational movements showed averaged 3D spatial uncertainties of 0.31 ± 0.42 mm respectively 0.82° ± 0.46° in the phantom and the first correction of these uncertainties were of 1.51 ± 1.14 mm respectively and 1.37° ± 0.61°. Conclusions: This study shows a high accuracy and repeatability in positioning the selected isocenter. The ETX-system for verifying the treatment isocenter position has the ability to monitor the tracing position of interest, making it possible to be used for SBRT positioning within uncertainty ≤1mm.

  12. Situational motivation and perceived intensity: their interaction in predicting changes in positive affect from physical activity.

    PubMed

    Guérin, Eva; Fortier, Michelle S

    2012-01-01

    There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE)] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P < .05) but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

  13. Situational Motivation and Perceived Intensity: Their Interaction in Predicting Changes in Positive Affect from Physical Activity

    PubMed Central

    Guérin, Eva; Fortier, Michelle S.

    2012-01-01

    There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE)] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P < .05) but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed. PMID:22778914

  14. Automaticity and eyewitness accuracy: a 10- to 12-second rule for distinguishing accurate from inaccurate positive identifications.

    PubMed

    Dunning, David; Perretta, Scott

    2002-10-01

    Eyewitness researchers have shown that witnesses accurately choosing the culprit out of a lineup reach their decisions more quickly than those erroneously choosing an innocent individual. However, this research is silent regarding how quickly or slowly witnesses must be, in absolute terms, to indicate that they are accurate or inaccurate. Across 4 studies, the authors discovered that a time boundary of roughly 10 to 12 s best differentiated accurate from inaccurate positive identifications. Witnesses making their identification faster than 10 to 12 s were nearly 90% accurate; those taking longer were roughly 50% accurate. This finding is consistent with previous research showing that accurate witnesses are more likely than inaccurate witnesses to reach their decisions automatically, that is, quickly, without conscious thought or effort. PMID:12395819

  15. Potential of EnMAP spaceborne imaging spectroscopy for the prediction of common surface soil properties and expected accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chabrillat, Sabine; Foerster, Saskia; Steinberg, Andreas; Stevens, Antoine; Segl, Karl

    2016-04-01

    There is a renewed awareness of the finite nature of the world's soil resources, growing concern about soil security, and significant uncertainties about the carrying capacity of the planet. As a consequence, soil scientists are being challenged to provide regular assessments of soil conditions from local through to global scales. However, only a few countries have the necessary survey and monitoring programs to meet these new needs and existing global data sets are out-of-date. A particular issue is the clear demand for a new area-wide regional to global coverage with accurate, up-to-date, and spatially referenced soil information as expressed by the modeling scientific community, farmers and land users, and policy and decision makers. Soil spectroscopy from remote sensing observations based on studies from the laboratory scale to the airborne scale has been shown to be a proven method for the quantitative prediction of key soil surface properties in local areas for exposed soils in appropriate surface conditions such as low vegetation cover and low water content. With the upcoming launch of the next generation of hyperspectral satellite sensors in the next 3 to 5 years (EnMAP, HISUI, PRISMA, SHALOM), a great potential for the global mapping and monitoring of soil properties is appearing. Nevertheless, the capabilities to extend the soil properties current spectral modeling from local to regional scales are still to be demonstrated using robust methods. In particular, three central questions are at the forefront of research nowadays: a) methodological developments toward improved algorithms and operational tools for the extraction of soil properties, b) up scaling from the laboratory into space domain, and c) demonstration of the potential of upcoming satellite systems and expected accuracy of soil maps. In this study, airborne imaging spectroscopy data from several test sites are used to simulate EnMAP satellite images at 30 m scale. Then, different soil

  16. Integration of small run-of-river and solar power: The hydrological regime prediction/assessment accuracy

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Francois, Baptiste; Creutin, Jean-Dominique; Hingray, Benoit; Zoccatelli, Davide

    2014-05-01

    analyzed how water discharge prediction accuracy controls the assessment quality of run-of-river- and solar-power interaction. We especially sought over which hydro-meteorological context a simple prediction method of water discharge is able to produce pertinent run-of-river and solar power interaction assessment. We considered three degrees of complexity to estimate water discharges: i) model-based estimation using calibrated parameters over the watershed, ii) model-based estimation using parameters from nearby watershed and then iii) a scaling law. This work has been performed for a set of watersheds over a climate transect going from the Alpine crests to the Veneto plains in the north eastern part of Italy, where observed run-of-river power generations present different degrees of complementarities with solar power. The work presented is part of the FP7 project COMPLEX (Knowledge based climate mitigation systems for a low carbon economy; http://www.complex.ac.uk/).

  17. The uncertainty of position predictions for comet Halley in March 1986

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Landgraf, W.

    1986-03-01

    With reference to the space missions to comet Halley, its position uncertainty for mid March 1986 is investigated. Without light biases in the observations, one can expect a position uncertainty of approximately 100 km, and in cases of light shifts which cannot be modelled, up to 700 km. The light shift between the center of light or the image center and the nucleus of the comet is the largest source of uncertainty, the nongravitational forces are of negligible importance compared to this. With increased observational effort during the first part of March 1986, the accuracy can improve significantly. A source of large systematic errors are the differences between the reference system for astrometric observations (FK4) and earth coordinates (DE 118) and the navigation frame of the space probes which should be corrected.

  18. Predictability, plausibility, and two late ERP positivities during written sentence comprehension

    PubMed Central

    DeLong, Katherine A.; Quante, Laura; Kutas, Marta

    2014-01-01

    Van Petten & Luka’s (2012) literature survey of late positive ERP components elicited by more or less predictable words during sentence processing led them to propose two topographically and functionally distinct positivities: a parietal one associated with semantically incongruent words related to semantic reanalysis and a frontal one with unknown significance associated with congruent but lexically unpredicted words. With the goal of testing this hypothesis within a single set of experimental materials and participants, we report results from two ERP studies: Experiment 1, a post hoc analysis of a dataset that varied on dimensions of both cloze probability (predictability) and plausibility, and Experiment 2, a follow-up study in which these factors were manipulated in a controlled fashion. In both studies, we observed distinct post-N400 positivities: a more anterior one to plausible, but not anomalous, low cloze probability sentence medial words, and a more posterior one to semantically anomalous sentence continuations. Taken together with an observed canonical cloze-modulated N400, these dual positivities indicate a dissociation between brain processes relating to written words’ sentential predictability versus plausibility, clearly an important distinction for any viable neural or psycholinguistic model of written sentence processing. PMID:24953958

  19. Predictability, plausibility, and two late ERP positivities during written sentence comprehension.

    PubMed

    DeLong, Katherine A; Quante, Laura; Kutas, Marta

    2014-08-01

    Van Petten and Luka's (2012, International Journal of Psychophysiology, 83(2), 176-190) literature survey of late positive ERP components elicited by more or less predictable words during sentence processing led them to propose two topographically and functionally distinct positivities: a parietal one associated with semantically incongruent words related to semantic reanalysis and a frontal one with unknown significance associated with congruent but lexically unpredicted words. With the goal of testing this hypothesis within a single set of experimental materials and participants, we report results from two ERP studies: Experiment 1, a post-hoc analysis of a dataset that varied on dimensions of both cloze probability (predictability) and plausibility, and Experiment 2, a follow-up study in which these factors were manipulated in a controlled fashion. In both studies, we observed distinct post-N400 positivities: a more anterior one to plausible, but not anomalous, low cloze probability sentence medial words, and a more posterior one to semantically anomalous sentence continuations. Taken together with an observed canonical cloze-modulated N400, these dual positivities indicate a dissociation between brain processes relating to written words׳ sentential predictability versus plausibility, clearly an important distinction for any viable neural or psycholinguistic model of written sentence processing.

  20. Evaluation of the positive predictive value of a rapid Immunochromatographic test to detect Campylobacter in stools.

    PubMed

    Floch, Pauline; Goret, Julien; Bessède, Emilie; Lehours, Philippe; Mégraud, Francis

    2012-01-01

    The recently developed rapid immunochromatographic tests (ICT) have the potential to provide a quick and easy diagnosis of Campylobacter enteritis in comparison to culture. In a previous study we found them sensitive but lacking in specificity. The aim of the present study was to focus on the problem of specificity and determine the positive predictive value (PPV) of a positive result of the ImmunoCard Stat! Campy (Meridian Bioscience, Cincinnati, OH, USA). For this purpose, the stools positive by ICT were cultured according to 3 different protocols: Karmali agar, Preston enrichment broth subcultured on Karmali agar, and a filtration method on a blood agar without antibiotics, all incubated for 7 days at 37°C. Out of 609 stools from adults and children with community acquired enteritis, the reference methods detected 25 positive cases (4.1%) (culture: 19, specific PCR and ELISA both positive: 6) and the ICT: 31 including the 25 true positives. The PPV was 80.6%. We conclude that ICT is a good method to screen Campylobacter positive stools but because of its lack of specificity the positive stools must be tested by another method. PMID:23206554

  1. A Beginning or the End? A Meta-analysis to Assess the Diagnostic Accuracy of Transient Elastography for the Prediction of Esophageal Varices

    PubMed Central

    Qu, Yundong; Li, Tao; Ye, Qian; Zhang, Lixin; Wang, Lei

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aims: To assess the accuracy of transient elastography (TE) in the prediction of esophageal varices (EV). Materials and Methods: The literature search was conducted by using PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and CENTRAL on The Cochrane Library without time or language restrictions. Terms used were “FibroScan,” “transient elastography,” “stiffness,” and “esophageal varices.” The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and other parameters were obtained using a bivariate mixed-effects regression model. Result: Twenty studies (2530 patients) were identified for inclusion. The pooled sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative likelihood ratios, and diagnostic odds ratio were 0.84 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.79–0.87), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.61–0.73), 2.58 (95% CI, 2.15–3.10), 0.24 (95% CI, 0.19–0.32), and 10.60 (95%CI, 7.20–15.62), respectively. The summary area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curves was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.79–0.86). Especially, for hepatitis C patients, the diagnostic performance of TE for detecting the presence of EV was similar to all other patients with a sensitivity of 0.83 and a specificity of 0.63, but without heterogeneity (I2 = 0.00). For the prediction of large esophageal varices in patients with viral liver cirrhosis, the pooled sensitivity and specificity of TE were 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.89) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.65-0.85), respectively, without significant heterogeneity (I2 = 0.00). Conclusion: Transient elastography has good sensitivity and moderate specificity. TE can be used as an effective noninvasive screening tool for the prediction of esophageal varices, especially in hepatitis C patients, and for the prediction of large esophageal varices in patients with viral liver cirrhosis.

  2. Positive thinking about the future in newspaper reports and presidential addresses predicts economic downturn.

    PubMed

    Sevincer, A Timur; Wagner, Greta; Kalvelage, Johanna; Oettingen, Gabriele

    2014-04-01

    Previous research has shown that positive thinking, in the form of fantasies about an idealized future, predicts low effort and poor performance. In the studies reported here, we used computerized content analysis of historical documents to investigate the relation between positive thinking about the future and economic development. During the financial crisis from 2007 to 2009, the more weekly newspaper articles in the economy page of USA Today contained positive thinking about the future, the more the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined in the subsequent week and 1 month later. In addition, between the New Deal era and the present time, the more presidential inaugural addresses contained positive thinking about the future, the more the gross domestic product and the employment rate declined in the presidents' subsequent tenures. These counterintuitive findings may help reveal the psychological processes that contribute to an economic crisis.

  3. Disturbance in hitting accuracy by professional and collegiate baseball players due to intentional change of target position.

    PubMed

    Higuchi, Takatoshi; Nagami, Tomoyuki; Morohoshi, Jun; Nakata, Hiroki; Kanosue, Kazuyuki

    2013-04-01

    The present study investigated bat control of skilled baseball batters during tee batting, faced with an intentional change in target position. Twelve, skilled, male baseball players (M age = 24 yr., SD = 4) participated in the study. Participants were instructed to hit a baseball off a tee 0.8 m from the ground (Hitting condition), and also to deliberately swing just above the ball (Air Swing condition). The task for the participants was to perform, in alternate order, 15 swings at a real baseball on a stationary tee and 15 swings at an imaginary ball that was said to be on top of the real baseball. The participants were instructed to hit the ball toward center field just as they would hit in a game. While most participants could hit the real ball in the sweet area of the bat, only one participant did so in the Air Swing condition. Average distances from the center of the sweet area to ball center at the moment of ball-bat contact in the Air Swing condition (85 mm) were significantly greater than the distance in the Hitting condition (38 mm). The larger error in hitting an imaginary ball in the sweet area could be due to perceptual changes following the batter's altered focus, expectation of a lack of contact, and/or lack of feedback from the swing. It was suggested that baseball batters should be aware of the possible error in hitting accurately when they intentionally shifted the target. PMID:24032335

  4. Disturbance in hitting accuracy by professional and collegiate baseball players due to intentional change of target position.

    PubMed

    Higuchi, Takatoshi; Nagami, Tomoyuki; Morohoshi, Jun; Nakata, Hiroki; Kanosue, Kazuyuki

    2013-04-01

    The present study investigated bat control of skilled baseball batters during tee batting, faced with an intentional change in target position. Twelve, skilled, male baseball players (M age = 24 yr., SD = 4) participated in the study. Participants were instructed to hit a baseball off a tee 0.8 m from the ground (Hitting condition), and also to deliberately swing just above the ball (Air Swing condition). The task for the participants was to perform, in alternate order, 15 swings at a real baseball on a stationary tee and 15 swings at an imaginary ball that was said to be on top of the real baseball. The participants were instructed to hit the ball toward center field just as they would hit in a game. While most participants could hit the real ball in the sweet area of the bat, only one participant did so in the Air Swing condition. Average distances from the center of the sweet area to ball center at the moment of ball-bat contact in the Air Swing condition (85 mm) were significantly greater than the distance in the Hitting condition (38 mm). The larger error in hitting an imaginary ball in the sweet area could be due to perceptual changes following the batter's altered focus, expectation of a lack of contact, and/or lack of feedback from the swing. It was suggested that baseball batters should be aware of the possible error in hitting accurately when they intentionally shifted the target.

  5. Precision of high-resolution multibeam echo sounding coupled with high-accuracy positioning in a shallow water coastal environment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ernstsen, Verner B.; Noormets, Riko; Hebbeln, Dierk; Bartholomä, Alex; Flemming, Burg W.

    2006-09-01

    Over 4 years, repetitive bathymetric measurements of a shipwreck in the Grådyb tidal inlet channel in the Danish Wadden Sea were carried out using a state-of-the-art high-resolution multibeam echosounder (MBES) coupled with a real-time long range kinematic (LRK™) global positioning system. Seven measurements during a single survey in 2003 ( n=7) revealed a horizontal and vertical precision of the MBES system of ±20 and ±2 cm, respectively, at a 95% confidence level. By contrast, four annual surveys from 2002 to 2005 ( n=4) yielded a horizontal and vertical precision (at 95% confidence level) of only ±30 and ±8 cm, respectively. This difference in precision can be explained by three main factors: (1) the dismounting of the system between the annual surveys, (2) rougher sea conditions during the survey in 2004 and (3) the limited number of annual surveys. In general, the precision achieved here did not correspond to the full potential of the MBES system, as this could certainly have been improved by an increase in coverage density (soundings/m2), achievable by reducing the survey speed of the vessel. Nevertheless, precision was higher than that reported to date for earlier offshore test surveys using comparable equipment.

  6. Interplay effects between dose distribution quality and positioning accuracy in total marrow irradiation with volumetric modulated arc therapy

    SciTech Connect

    Mancosu, Pietro; Navarria, Piera; Reggiori, Giacomo; Tomatis, Stefano; Alongi, Filippo; Scorsetti, Marta; Castagna, Luca; Sarina, Barbara; Nicolini, Giorgia; Fogliata, Antonella; Cozzi, Luca

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the dosimetric consequences of inaccurate isocenter positioning during treatment of total marrow (lymph-node) irradiation (TMI-TMLI) using volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT).Methods: Four patients treated with TMI and TMLI were randomly selected from the internal database. Plans were optimized with VMAT technique. Planning target volume (PTV) included all the body bones; for TMLI, lymph nodes and spleen were considered into the target, too. Dose prescription to PTV was 12 Gy in six fractions, two times per day for TMI, and 2 Gy in single fraction for TMLI. Ten arcs on five isocenters (two arcs for isocenter) were used to cover the upper part of PTV (i.e., from cranium to middle femurs). For each plan, three series of random shifts with values between −3 and +3 mm and three between −5 and +5 mm were applied to the five isocenters simulating involuntary patient motion during treatment. The shifts were applied separately in the three directions: left–right (L-R), anterior–posterior (A-P), and cranial–caudal (C-C). The worst case scenario with simultaneous random shifts in all directions simultaneously was considered too. Doses were recalculated for the 96 shifted plans (24 for each patient).Results: For all shifts, differences <0.5% were found for mean doses to PTV, body, and organs at risk with volumes >100 cm{sup 3}. Maximum doses increased up to 15% for C-C shifted plans. PTV covered by the 95% isodose decreased of 2%–8% revealing target underdosage with the highest values in C-C direction.Conclusions: The correct isocenter repositioning of TMI-TMLI patients is fundamental, in particular in C-C direction, in order to avoid over- and underdosages especially in the overlap regions. For this reason, a dedicated immobilization system was developed in the authors' center to best immobilize the patient.

  7. Continuous and Discrete Space Particle Filters for Predictions in Acoustic Positioning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bauer, Will; Kim, Surrey; Kouritzin, Michael A.

    2002-12-01

    Predicting the future state of a random dynamic signal based on corrupted, distorted, and partial observations is vital for proper real-time control of a system that includes time delay. Motivated by problems from Acoustic Positioning Research Inc., we consider the continual automated illumination of an object moving within a bounded domain, which requires object location prediction due to inherent mechanical and physical time lags associated with robotic lighting. Quality computational predictions demand high fidelity models for the coupled moving object signal and observation equipment pair. In our current problem, the signal represents the vector position, orientation, and velocity of a stage performer. Acoustic observations are formed by timing ultrasonic waves traveling from four perimeter speakers to a microphone attached to the performer. The goal is to schedule lighting movements that are coordinated with the performer by anticipating his/her future position based upon these observations using filtering theory. Particle system based methods have experienced rapid development and have become an essential technique of contemporary filtering strategies. Hitherto, researchers have largely focused on continuous state particle filters, ranging from traditional weighted particle filters to adaptive refining particle filters, readily able to perform path-space estimation and prediction. Herein, we compare the performance of a state-of-the-art refining particle filter to that of a novel discrete-space particle filter on the acoustic positioning problem. By discrete space particle filter we mean a Markov chain that counts particles in discretized cells of the signal state space in order to form an approximated unnormalized distribution of the signal state. For both filters mentioned above, we will examine issues like the mean time to localize a signal, the fidelity of filter estimates at various signal to noise ratios, computational costs, and the effect of signal

  8. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory.

    PubMed

    Korn, Christoph W; Rosenblau, Gabriela; Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M; Heekeren, Hauke R

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors' credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did--or did not--receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors' credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors' credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect performance

  9. Performance Feedback Processing Is Positively Biased As Predicted by Attribution Theory

    PubMed Central

    Rodriguez Buritica, Julia M.; Heekeren, Hauke R.

    2016-01-01

    A considerable literature on attribution theory has shown that healthy individuals exhibit a positivity bias when inferring the causes of evaluative feedback on their performance. They tend to attribute positive feedback internally (e.g., to their own abilities) but negative feedback externally (e.g., to environmental factors). However, all empirical demonstrations of this bias suffer from at least one of the three following drawbacks: First, participants directly judge explicit causes for their performance. Second, participants have to imagine events instead of experiencing them. Third, participants assess their performance only after receiving feedback and thus differences in baseline assessments cannot be excluded. It is therefore unclear whether the classically reported positivity bias generalizes to setups without these drawbacks. Here, we aimed at establishing the relevance of attributions for decision-making by showing an attribution-related positivity bias in a decision-making task. We developed a novel task, which allowed us to test how participants changed their evaluations in response to positive and negative feedback about performance. Specifically, we used videos of actors expressing different facial emotional expressions. Participants were first asked to evaluate the actors’ credibility in expressing a particular emotion. After this initial rating, participants performed an emotion recognition task and did—or did not—receive feedback on their veridical performance. Finally, participants re-rated the actors’ credibility, which provided a measure of how they changed their evaluations after feedback. Attribution theory predicts that participants change their evaluations of the actors’ credibility toward the positive after receiving positive performance feedback and toward the negative after negative performance feedback. Our results were in line with this prediction. A control condition without feedback showed that correct or incorrect

  10. A method to improve the stability and accuracy of ANN- and SVM-based time series models for long-term groundwater level predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yoon, Heesung; Hyun, Yunjung; Ha, Kyoochul; Lee, Kang-Kun; Kim, Gyoo-Bum

    2016-05-01

    The prediction of long-term groundwater level fluctuations is necessary to effectively manage groundwater resources and to assess the effects of changes in rainfall patterns on groundwater resources. In the present study, a weighted error function approach was utilised to improve the performance of artificial neural network (ANN)- and support vector machine (SVM)-based recursive prediction models for the long-term prediction of groundwater levels in response to rainfall. The developed time series models were applied to groundwater level data from 5 groundwater-monitoring stations in South Korea. The results demonstrated that the weighted error function approach can improve the stability and accuracy of recursive prediction models, especially for ANN models. The comparison of the model performance showed that the recursive prediction performance of the SVM was superior to the performance of the ANN in this case study.

  11. Adaptability and Prediction of Anticipatory Muscular Activity Parameters to Different Movements in the Sitting Position.

    PubMed

    Chikh, Soufien; Watelain, Eric; Faupin, Arnaud; Pinti, Antonio; Jarraya, Mohamed; Garnier, Cyril

    2016-08-01

    Voluntary movement often causes postural perturbation that requires an anticipatory postural adjustment to minimize perturbation and increase the efficiency and coordination during execution. This systematic review focuses specifically on the relationship between the parameters of anticipatory muscular activities and movement finality in sitting position among adults, to study the adaptability and predictability of anticipatory muscular activities parameters to different movements and conditions in sitting position in adults. A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, Springer-Link, Engineering Village, and EbscoHost. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to retain the most rigorous and specific studies, yielding 76 articles, Seventeen articles were excluded at first reading, and after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 23 were retained. In a sitting position, central nervous system activity precedes movement by diverse anticipatory muscular activities and shows the ability to adapt anticipatory muscular activity parameters to the movement direction, postural stability, or charge weight. In addition, these parameters could be adapted to the speed of execution, as found for the standing position. Parameters of anticipatory muscular activities (duration, order, and amplitude of muscle contractions constituting the anticipatory muscular activity) could be used as a predictive indicator of forthcoming movement. In addition, this systematic review may improve methodology in empirical studies and assistive technology for people with disabilities. PMID:27440765

  12. Prediction of positive food effect: Bioavailability enhancement of BCS class II drugs.

    PubMed

    Raman, Siddarth; Polli, James E

    2016-06-15

    High-throughput screening methods have increased the number of poorly water-soluble, highly permeable drug candidates. Many of these candidates have increased bioavailability when administered with food (i.e., exhibit a positive food effect). Food is known to impact drug bioavailability through a variety of mechanisms, including drug solubilization and prolonged gastric residence time. In vitro dissolution media that aim to mimic in vivo gastrointestinal (GI) conditions have been developed to lessen the need for fed human bioequivalence studies. The objective of this work was to develop an in vitro lipolysis model to predict positive food effect of three BCS Class II drugs (i.e., danazol, amiodarone and ivermectin) in previously developed lipolysis media. This in vitro lipolysis model was comparatively benchmarked against FeSSIF and FaSSIF media that were modified for an in vitro lipolysis approach, as FeSSIF and FaSSIF are widely used in in vitro dissolution studies. The in vitro lipolysis model accurately predicted the in vivo positive food effect for three model BCS class II drugs. The in vitro lipolysis model has potential use as a screening test of drug candidates in early development to assess positive food effect.

  13. Adaptability and Prediction of Anticipatory Muscular Activity Parameters to Different Movements in the Sitting Position.

    PubMed

    Chikh, Soufien; Watelain, Eric; Faupin, Arnaud; Pinti, Antonio; Jarraya, Mohamed; Garnier, Cyril

    2016-08-01

    Voluntary movement often causes postural perturbation that requires an anticipatory postural adjustment to minimize perturbation and increase the efficiency and coordination during execution. This systematic review focuses specifically on the relationship between the parameters of anticipatory muscular activities and movement finality in sitting position among adults, to study the adaptability and predictability of anticipatory muscular activities parameters to different movements and conditions in sitting position in adults. A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed, Science Direct, Web of Science, Springer-Link, Engineering Village, and EbscoHost. Inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied to retain the most rigorous and specific studies, yielding 76 articles, Seventeen articles were excluded at first reading, and after the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 23 were retained. In a sitting position, central nervous system activity precedes movement by diverse anticipatory muscular activities and shows the ability to adapt anticipatory muscular activity parameters to the movement direction, postural stability, or charge weight. In addition, these parameters could be adapted to the speed of execution, as found for the standing position. Parameters of anticipatory muscular activities (duration, order, and amplitude of muscle contractions constituting the anticipatory muscular activity) could be used as a predictive indicator of forthcoming movement. In addition, this systematic review may improve methodology in empirical studies and assistive technology for people with disabilities.

  14. Accuracy of imaging parameters in the prediction of lethal pulmonary hypoplasia secondary to mid-trimester prelabor rupture of fetal membranes: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

    PubMed

    van Teeffelen, A S P; Van Der Heijden, J; Oei, S G; Porath, M M; Willekes, C; Opmeer, B; Mol, B W J

    2012-05-01

    In women who have suffered mid-trimester prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM), prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia is important for optimal management. We performed a systematic review to assess the capacity of imaging parameters to predict pulmonary hypoplasia. We searched for published articles that reported on biometric parameters and allowed the construction of a 2 × 2 table, comparing at least one of these parameters with the occurrence of pulmonary hypoplasia. The selected studies were scored on methodological quality and we calculated sensitivity and specificity of the tests in the prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia and lethal pulmonary hypoplasia. Overall performance was assessed by summary receiver-operating characteristics (sROC) analyses that were performed with bivariate meta-analysis. We detected 13 studies that reported on the prediction of lethal pulmonary hypoplasia. The quality of the included studies was poor to mediocre. The estimated sROC curves for the chest circumference/abdominal circumference ratio and other parameters showed limited accuracy in the prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia. In women with mid-trimester PPROM, the available evidence indicates limited accuracy of biometric parameters in the prediction of pulmonary hypoplasia.

  15. Predictive IP controller for robust position control of linear servo system.

    PubMed

    Lu, Shaowu; Zhou, Fengxing; Ma, Yajie; Tang, Xiaoqi

    2016-07-01

    Position control is a typical application of linear servo system. In this paper, to reduce the system overshoot, an integral plus proportional (IP) controller is used in the position control implementation. To further improve the control performance, a gain-tuning IP controller based on a generalized predictive control (GPC) law is proposed. Firstly, to represent the dynamics of the position loop, a second-order linear model is used and its model parameters are estimated on-line by using a recursive least squares method. Secondly, based on the GPC law, an optimal control sequence is obtained by using receding horizon, then directly supplies the IP controller with the corresponding control parameters in the real operations. Finally, simulation and experimental results are presented to show the efficiency of proposed scheme.

  16. nuMap: a web platform for accurate prediction of nucleosome positioning.

    PubMed

    Alharbi, Bader A; Alshammari, Thamir H; Felton, Nathan L; Zhurkin, Victor B; Cui, Feng

    2014-10-01

    Nucleosome positioning is critical for gene expression and of major biological interest. The high cost of experimentally mapping nucleosomal arrangement signifies the need for computational approaches to predict nucleosome positions at high resolution. Here, we present a web-based application to fulfill this need by implementing two models, YR and W/S schemes, for the translational and rotational positioning of nucleosomes, respectively. Our methods are based on sequence-dependent anisotropic bending that dictates how DNA is wrapped around a histone octamer. This application allows users to specify a number of options such as schemes and parameters for threading calculation and provides multiple layout formats. The nuMap is implemented in Java/Perl/MySQL and is freely available for public use at http://numap.rit.edu. The user manual, implementation notes, description of the methodology and examples are available at the site. PMID:25220945

  17. Performance and Accuracy of Lightweight and Low-Cost GPS Data Loggers According to Antenna Positions, Fix Intervals, Habitats and Animal Movements.

    PubMed

    Forin-Wiart, Marie-Amélie; Hubert, Pauline; Sirguey, Pascal; Poulle, Marie-Lazarine

    2015-01-01

    Recently developed low-cost Global Positioning System (GPS) data loggers are promising tools for wildlife research because of their affordability for low-budget projects and ability to simultaneously track a greater number of individuals compared with expensive built-in wildlife GPS. However, the reliability of these devices must be carefully examined because they were not developed to track wildlife. This study aimed to assess the performance and accuracy of commercially available GPS data loggers for the first time using the same methods applied to test built-in wildlife GPS. The effects of antenna position, fix interval and habitat on the fix-success rate (FSR) and location error (LE) of CatLog data loggers were investigated in stationary tests, whereas the effects of animal movements on these errors were investigated in motion tests. The units operated well and presented consistent performance and accuracy over time in stationary tests, and the FSR was good for all antenna positions and fix intervals. However, the LE was affected by the GPS antenna and fix interval. Furthermore, completely or partially obstructed habitats reduced the FSR by up to 80% in households and increased the LE. Movement across habitats had no effect on the FSR, whereas forest habitat influenced the LE. Finally, the mean FSR (0.90 ± 0.26) and LE (15.4 ± 10.1 m) values from low-cost GPS data loggers were comparable to those of built-in wildlife GPS collars (71.6% of fixes with LE < 10 m for motion tests), thus confirming their suitability for use in wildlife studies.

  18. Performance and Accuracy of Lightweight and Low-Cost GPS Data Loggers According to Antenna Positions, Fix Intervals, Habitats and Animal Movements

    PubMed Central

    Forin-Wiart, Marie-Amélie; Hubert, Pauline; Sirguey, Pascal; Poulle, Marie-Lazarine

    2015-01-01

    Recently developed low-cost Global Positioning System (GPS) data loggers are promising tools for wildlife research because of their affordability for low-budget projects and ability to simultaneously track a greater number of individuals compared with expensive built-in wildlife GPS. However, the reliability of these devices must be carefully examined because they were not developed to track wildlife. This study aimed to assess the performance and accuracy of commercially available GPS data loggers for the first time using the same methods applied to test built-in wildlife GPS. The effects of antenna position, fix interval and habitat on the fix-success rate (FSR) and location error (LE) of CatLog data loggers were investigated in stationary tests, whereas the effects of animal movements on these errors were investigated in motion tests. The units operated well and presented consistent performance and accuracy over time in stationary tests, and the FSR was good for all antenna positions and fix intervals. However, the LE was affected by the GPS antenna and fix interval. Furthermore, completely or partially obstructed habitats reduced the FSR by up to 80% in households and increased the LE. Movement across habitats had no effect on the FSR, whereas forest habitat influenced the LE. Finally, the mean FSR (0.90 ± 0.26) and LE (15.4 ± 10.1 m) values from low-cost GPS data loggers were comparable to those of built-in wildlife GPS collars (71.6% of fixes with LE < 10 m for motion tests), thus confirming their suitability for use in wildlife studies. PMID:26086958

  19. Self-Confidence and Performance Goal Orientation Interactively Predict Performance in a Reasoning Test with Accuracy Feedback

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Beckmann, Nadin; Beckmann, Jens F.; Elliott, Julian G.

    2009-01-01

    This study takes an individual differences' perspective on performance feedback effects in psychometric testing. A total of 105 students in a mainstream secondary school in North East England undertook a cognitive ability test on two occasions. In one condition, students received item-specific accuracy feedback while in the other (standard…

  20. Verification of the Prediction Accuracy of Annual Energy Output at Noma Wind Park by the Non-Stationary and Non-Linear Wind Synopsis Simulator, RIAM-COMPACT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uchida, Takanori; Ohya, Yuji

    In the present study, the hub-height wind speed ratios for 16 individual wind directional groups were estimated by the RIAM-COMPACT for Noma Wind Park, Kagoshima Prefecture. The validity of the proposed estimation technique for the actual wind was examined. For this procedure, field observational data from the one year period between April, 2004 and March, 2005 were studied. In this case, the relative error on the prediction accuracy was less than 10% and less than 5% for the monthly and annual average wind speeds, respectively. Similar to the results for the annual average wind speed, the difference in the selected reference points (Wind Turbines #4 and #6) had little difference in the relative error on the prediction accuracy of the annual energy output. For both reference points, the relative error was within 10%.

  1. Accuracy of gap analysis habitat models in predicting physical features for wildlife-habitat associations in the southwest U.S.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boykin, K.G.; Thompson, B.C.; Propeck-Gray, S.

    2010-01-01

    Despite widespread and long-standing efforts to model wildlife-habitat associations using remotely sensed and other spatially explicit data, there are relatively few evaluations of the performance of variables included in predictive models relative to actual features on the landscape. As part of the National Gap Analysis Program, we specifically examined physical site features at randomly selected sample locations in the Southwestern U.S. to assess degree of concordance with predicted features used in modeling vertebrate habitat distribution. Our analysis considered hypotheses about relative accuracy with respect to 30 vertebrate species selected to represent the spectrum of habitat generalist to specialist and categorization of site by relative degree of conservation emphasis accorded to the site. Overall comparison of 19 variables observed at 382 sample sites indicated ???60% concordance for 12 variables. Directly measured or observed variables (slope, soil composition, rock outcrop) generally displayed high concordance, while variables that required judgments regarding descriptive categories (aspect, ecological system, landform) were less concordant. There were no differences detected in concordance among taxa groups, degree of specialization or generalization of selected taxa, or land conservation categorization of sample sites with respect to all sites. We found no support for the hypothesis that accuracy of habitat models is inversely related to degree of taxa specialization when model features for a habitat specialist could be more difficult to represent spatially. Likewise, we did not find support for the hypothesis that physical features will be predicted with higher accuracy on lands with greater dedication to biodiversity conservation than on other lands because of relative differences regarding available information. Accuracy generally was similar (>60%) to that observed for land cover mapping at the ecological system level. These patterns demonstrate

  2. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    PubMed Central

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

    2016-01-01

    The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015–2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013–2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase. PMID:27251760

  3. Can scapular and humeral head position predict shoulder pain in adolescent swimmers and non-swimmers?

    PubMed

    McKenna, Leanda; Straker, Leon; Smith, Anne

    2012-12-01

    The aims of this study were to determine whether scapular and humeral head position can predict the development of shoulder pain in swimmers, whether those predictors were applicable to non-swimmers and the annual rate of shoulder pain in adolescent swimmers and non-swimmers. Forty-six adolescent swimmers and 43 adolescent non-swimmers were examined prospectively with a questionnaire and anthropometric measures. The questionnaire examined demographic and training variables. Anthropometric measures examined the distances between the T7 spinous process and the inferior scapula (Inferior Kibler) and T3 spinous process and the medial spine of the scapula (Superior Kibler), humeral head position in relation to the acromion using palpation, BMI and chest width. Shoulder pain was re-assessed 12 months later by questionnaire. Shoulder pain in swimmers was best predicted by a larger BMI (OR = 1.48, P = 0.049), a smaller Inferior Kibler distance in abduction (e.g. OR = 0.90, P = 0.009) and a smaller horizontal distance between the anterior humeral head and the anterior acromion (OR = 0.76, P = 0.035). These variables were not significantly predictive of shoulder pain in non-swimmers. Annual prevalence of shoulder pain was 23.9% in swimmers and 30.8% in non-swimmers (χ(2) = 0.50, P = 0.478).

  4. Initialized decadal prediction for transition to positive phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meehl, Gerald A.; Hu, Aixue; Teng, Haiyan

    2016-06-01

    The negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), a dominant mode of multi-decadal variability of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Pacific, contributed to the reduced rate of global surface temperature warming in the early 2000s. A proposed mechanism for IPO multidecadal variability indicates that the presence of decadal timescale upper ocean heat content in the off-equatorial western tropical Pacific can provide conditions for an interannual El Niño/Southern Oscillation event to trigger a transition of tropical Pacific SSTs to the opposite IPO phase. Here we show that a decadal prediction initialized in 2013 simulates predicted Niño3.4 SSTs that have qualitatively tracked the observations through 2015. The year three to seven average prediction (2015-2019) from the 2013 initial state shows a transition to the positive phase of the IPO from the previous negative phase and a resumption of larger rates of global warming over the 2013-2022 period consistent with a positive IPO phase.

  5. Initialized decadal prediction