Science.gov

Sample records for accurate age estimation

  1. Accurate radiocarbon age estimation using "early" measurements: a new approach to reconstructing the Paleolithic absolute chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omori, Takayuki; Sano, Katsuhiro; Yoneda, Minoru

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents new correction approaches for "early" radiocarbon ages to reconstruct the Paleolithic absolute chronology. In order to discuss time-space distribution about the replacement of archaic humans, including Neanderthals in Europe, by the modern humans, a massive data, which covers a wide-area, would be needed. Today, some radiocarbon databases focused on the Paleolithic have been published and used for chronological studies. From a viewpoint of current analytical technology, however, the any database have unreliable results that make interpretation of radiocarbon dates difficult. Most of these unreliable ages had been published in the early days of radiocarbon analysis. In recent years, new analytical methods to determine highly-accurate dates have been developed. Ultrafiltration and ABOx-SC methods, as new sample pretreatments for bone and charcoal respectively, have attracted attention because they could remove imperceptible contaminates and derive reliable accurately ages. In order to evaluate the reliability of "early" data, we investigated the differences and variabilities of radiocarbon ages on different pretreatments, and attempted to develop correction functions for the assessment of the reliability. It can be expected that reliability of the corrected age is increased and the age applied to chronological research together with recent ages. Here, we introduce the methodological frameworks and archaeological applications.

  2. Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

  3. Accurate pose estimation for forensic identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Merckx, Gert; Hermans, Jeroen; Vandermeulen, Dirk

    2010-04-01

    In forensic authentication, one aims to identify the perpetrator among a series of suspects or distractors. A fundamental problem in any recognition system that aims for identification of subjects in a natural scene is the lack of constrains on viewing and imaging conditions. In forensic applications, identification proves even more challenging, since most surveillance footage is of abysmal quality. In this context, robust methods for pose estimation are paramount. In this paper we will therefore present a new pose estimation strategy for very low quality footage. Our approach uses 3D-2D registration of a textured 3D face model with the surveillance image to obtain accurate far field pose alignment. Starting from an inaccurate initial estimate, the technique uses novel similarity measures based on the monogenic signal to guide a pose optimization process. We will illustrate the descriptive strength of the introduced similarity measures by using them directly as a recognition metric. Through validation, using both real and synthetic surveillance footage, our pose estimation method is shown to be accurate, and robust to lighting changes and image degradation.

  4. 31 CFR 205.24 - How are accurate estimates maintained?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How are accurate estimates maintained... Treasury-State Agreement § 205.24 How are accurate estimates maintained? (a) If a State has knowledge that an estimate does not reasonably correspond to the State's cash needs for a Federal assistance...

  5. Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay

    2005-01-01

    The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.

  6. Micromagnetometer calibration for accurate orientation estimation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhi-Qiang; Yang, Guang-Zhong

    2015-02-01

    Micromagnetometers, together with inertial sensors, are widely used for attitude estimation for a wide variety of applications. However, appropriate sensor calibration, which is essential to the accuracy of attitude reconstruction, must be performed in advance. Thus far, many different magnetometer calibration methods have been proposed to compensate for errors such as scale, offset, and nonorthogonality. They have also been used for obviate magnetic errors due to soft and hard iron. However, in order to combine the magnetometer with inertial sensor for attitude reconstruction, alignment difference between the magnetometer and the axes of the inertial sensor must be determined as well. This paper proposes a practical means of sensor error correction by simultaneous consideration of sensor errors, magnetic errors, and alignment difference. We take the summation of the offset and hard iron error as the combined bias and then amalgamate the alignment difference and all the other errors as a transformation matrix. A two-step approach is presented to determine the combined bias and transformation matrix separately. In the first step, the combined bias is determined by finding an optimal ellipsoid that can best fit the sensor readings. In the second step, the intrinsic relationships of the raw sensor readings are explored to estimate the transformation matrix as a homogeneous linear least-squares problem. Singular value decomposition is then applied to estimate both the transformation matrix and magnetic vector. The proposed method is then applied to calibrate our sensor node. Although there is no ground truth for the combined bias and transformation matrix for our node, the consistency of calibration results among different trials and less than 3(°) root mean square error for orientation estimation have been achieved, which illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed sensor calibration method for practical applications. PMID:25265625

  7. Quantifying Accurate Calorie Estimation Using the "Think Aloud" Method

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holmstrup, Michael E.; Stearns-Bruening, Kay; Rozelle, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Clients often have limited time in a nutrition education setting. An improved understanding of the strategies used to accurately estimate calories may help to identify areas of focused instruction to improve nutrition knowledge. Methods: A "Think Aloud" exercise was recorded during the estimation of calories in a standard dinner meal…

  8. Stereotypes of age differences in personality traits: universal and accurate?

    PubMed

    Chan, Wayne; McCrae, Robert R; De Fruyt, Filip; Jussim, Lee; Löckenhoff, Corinna E; De Bolle, Marleen; Costa, Paul T; Sutin, Angelina R; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri; Nakazato, Katsuharu; Shimonaka, Yoshiko; Hřebíčková, Martina; Graf, Sylvie; Yik, Michelle; Brunner-Sciarra, Marina; de Figueora, Nora Leibovich; Schmidt, Vanina; Ahn, Chang-Kyu; Ahn, Hyun-nie; Aguilar-Vafaie, Maria E; Siuta, Jerzy; Szmigielska, Barbara; Cain, Thomas R; Crawford, Jarret T; Mastor, Khairul Anwar; Rolland, Jean-Pierre; Nansubuga, Florence; Miramontez, Daniel R; Benet-Martínez, Veronica; Rossier, Jérôme; Bratko, Denis; Marušić, Iris; Halberstadt, Jamin; Yamaguchi, Mami; Knežević, Goran; Martin, Thomas A; Gheorghiu, Mirona; Smith, Peter B; Barbaranelli, Claudio; Wang, Lei; Shakespeare-Finch, Jane; Lima, Margarida P; Klinkosz, Waldemar; Sekowski, Andrzej; Alcalay, Lidia; Simonetti, Franco; Avdeyeva, Tatyana V; Pramila, V S; Terracciano, Antonio

    2012-12-01

    Age trajectories for personality traits are known to be similar across cultures. To address whether stereotypes of age groups reflect these age-related changes in personality, we asked participants in 26 countries (N = 3,323) to rate typical adolescents, adults, and old persons in their own country. Raters across nations tended to share similar beliefs about different age groups; adolescents were seen as impulsive, rebellious, undisciplined, preferring excitement and novelty, whereas old people were consistently considered lower on impulsivity, activity, antagonism, and Openness. These consensual age group stereotypes correlated strongly with published age differences on the five major dimensions of personality and most of 30 specific traits, using as criteria of accuracy both self-reports and observer ratings, different survey methodologies, and data from up to 50 nations. However, personal stereotypes were considerably less accurate, and consensual stereotypes tended to exaggerate differences across age groups. PMID:23088227

  9. Stereotypes of Age Differences in Personality Traits: Universal and Accurate?

    PubMed Central

    Chan, Wayne; McCrae, Robert R.; De Fruyt, Filip; Jussim, Lee; Löckenhoff, Corinna E.; De Bolle, Marleen; Costa, Paul T.; Sutin, Angelina R.; Realo, Anu; Allik, Jüri; Nakazato, Katsuharu; Shimonaka, Yoshiko; Hřebíčková, Martina; Kourilova, Sylvie; Yik, Michelle; Ficková, Emília; Brunner-Sciarra, Marina; de Figueora, Nora Leibovich; Schmidt, Vanina; Ahn, Chang-kyu; Ahn, Hyun-nie; Aguilar-Vafaie, Maria E.; Siuta, Jerzy; Szmigielska, Barbara; Cain, Thomas R.; Crawford, Jarret T.; Mastor, Khairul Anwar; Rolland, Jean-Pierre; Nansubuga, Florence; Miramontez, Daniel R.; Benet-Martínez, Veronica; Rossier, Jérôme; Bratko, Denis; Halberstadt, Jamin; Yamaguchi, Mami; Knežević, Goran; Martin, Thomas A.; Gheorghiu, Mirona; Smith, Peter B.; Barbaranelli, Claduio; Wang, Lei; Shakespeare-Finch, Jane; Lima, Margarida P.; Klinkosz, Waldemar; Sekowski, Andrzej; Alcalay, Lidia; Simonetti, Franco; Avdeyeva, Tatyana V.; Pramila, V. S.; Terracciano, Antonio

    2012-01-01

    Age trajectories for personality traits are known to be similar across cultures. To address whether stereotypes of age groups reflect these age-related changes in personality, we asked participants in 26 countries (N = 3,323) to rate typical adolescents, adults, and old persons in their own country. Raters across nations tended to share similar beliefs about different age groups; adolescents were seen as impulsive, rebellious, undisciplined, preferring excitement and novelty, whereas old people were consistently considered lower on impulsivity, activity, antagonism, and Openness. These consensual age group stereotypes correlated strongly with published age differences on the five major dimensions of personality and most of 30 specific traits, using as criteria of accuracy both self-reports and observer ratings, different survey methodologies, and data from up to 50 nations. However, personal stereotypes were considerably less accurate, and consensual stereotypes tended to exaggerate differences across age groups. PMID:23088227

  10. Accurate parameter estimation for unbalanced three-phase system.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yuan; So, Hing Cheung

    2014-01-01

    Smart grid is an intelligent power generation and control console in modern electricity networks, where the unbalanced three-phase power system is the commonly used model. Here, parameter estimation for this system is addressed. After converting the three-phase waveforms into a pair of orthogonal signals via the α β-transformation, the nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator is developed for accurately finding the frequency, phase, and voltage parameters. The estimator is realized by the Newton-Raphson scheme, whose global convergence is studied in this paper. Computer simulations show that the mean square error performance of NLS method can attain the Cramér-Rao lower bound. Moreover, our proposal provides more accurate frequency estimation when compared with the complex least mean square (CLMS) and augmented CLMS. PMID:25162056

  11. Age estimation from canine volumes.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gaudio, Daniel; Guercini, Nicola; Cipriani, Filippo; Gibelli, Daniele; Caputi, Sergio; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-08-01

    Techniques for estimation of biological age are constantly evolving and are finding daily application in the forensic radiology field in cases concerning the estimation of the chronological age of a corpse in order to reconstruct the biological profile, or of a living subject, for example in cases of immigration of people without identity papers from a civil registry. The deposition of teeth secondary dentine and consequent decrease of pulp chamber in size are well known as aging phenomena, and they have been applied to the forensic context by the development of age estimation procedures, such as Kvaal-Solheim and Cameriere methods. The present study takes into consideration canines pulp chamber volume related to the entire teeth volume, with the aim of proposing new regression formulae for age estimation using 91 cone beam computerized scans and a freeware open-source software, in order to permit affordable reproducibility of volumes calculation. PMID:25698302

  12. Accurate pose estimation using single marker single camera calibration system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pati, Sarthak; Erat, Okan; Wang, Lejing; Weidert, Simon; Euler, Ekkehard; Navab, Nassir; Fallavollita, Pascal

    2013-03-01

    Visual marker based tracking is one of the most widely used tracking techniques in Augmented Reality (AR) applications. Generally, multiple square markers are needed to perform robust and accurate tracking. Various marker based methods for calibrating relative marker poses have already been proposed. However, the calibration accuracy of these methods relies on the order of the image sequence and pre-evaluation of pose-estimation errors, making the method offline. Several studies have shown that the accuracy of pose estimation for an individual square marker depends on camera distance and viewing angle. We propose a method to accurately model the error in the estimated pose and translation of a camera using a single marker via an online method based on the Scaled Unscented Transform (SUT). Thus, the pose estimation for each marker can be estimated with highly accurate calibration results independent of the order of image sequences compared to cases when this knowledge is not used. This removes the need for having multiple markers and an offline estimation system to calculate camera pose in an AR application.

  13. ESTIMATION OF AGE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    ZINTER, JUDITH R.

    THIS NOTE DESCRIBES THE PROCEDURES USED IN DETERMINING DYNAMOD II AGE TRANSITION MATRICES. A SEPARATE MATRIX FOR EACH SEX-RACE GROUP IS DEVELOPED. THESE MATRICES WILL BE USED AS AN AID IN ESTIMATING THE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES IN THE LARGER DYNAMOD II MATRIX RELATING AGE TO OCCUPATIONAL CATEGORIES. THREE STEPS WERE USED IN THE PROCEDURE--(1)…

  14. An Accurate Link Correlation Estimator for Improving Wireless Protocol Performance

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhiwei; Xu, Xianghua; Dong, Wei; Bu, Jiajun

    2015-01-01

    Wireless link correlation has shown significant impact on the performance of various sensor network protocols. Many works have been devoted to exploiting link correlation for protocol improvements. However, the effectiveness of these designs heavily relies on the accuracy of link correlation measurement. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art link correlation measurement and analyze the limitations of existing works. We then propose a novel lightweight and accurate link correlation estimation (LACE) approach based on the reasoning of link correlation formation. LACE combines both long-term and short-term link behaviors for link correlation estimation. We implement LACE as a stand-alone interface in TinyOS and incorporate it into both routing and flooding protocols. Simulation and testbed results show that LACE: (1) achieves more accurate and lightweight link correlation measurements than the state-of-the-art work; and (2) greatly improves the performance of protocols exploiting link correlation. PMID:25686314

  15. An accurate link correlation estimator for improving wireless protocol performance.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhiwei; Xu, Xianghua; Dong, Wei; Bu, Jiajun

    2015-01-01

    Wireless link correlation has shown significant impact on the performance of various sensor network protocols. Many works have been devoted to exploiting link correlation for protocol improvements. However, the effectiveness of these designs heavily relies on the accuracy of link correlation measurement. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art link correlation measurement and analyze the limitations of existing works. We then propose a novel lightweight and accurate link correlation estimation (LACE) approach based on the reasoning of link correlation formation. LACE combines both long-term and short-term link behaviors for link correlation estimation. We implement LACE as a stand-alone interface in TinyOS and incorporate it into both routing and flooding protocols. Simulation and testbed results show that LACE: (1) achieves more accurate and lightweight link correlation measurements than the state-of-the-art work; and (2) greatly improves the performance of protocols exploiting link correlation. PMID:25686314

  16. Fast and accurate estimation for astrophysical problems in large databases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Richards, Joseph W.

    2010-10-01

    A recent flood of astronomical data has created much demand for sophisticated statistical and machine learning tools that can rapidly draw accurate inferences from large databases of high-dimensional data. In this Ph.D. thesis, methods for statistical inference in such databases will be proposed, studied, and applied to real data. I use methods for low-dimensional parametrization of complex, high-dimensional data that are based on the notion of preserving the connectivity of data points in the context of a Markov random walk over the data set. I show how this simple parameterization of data can be exploited to: define appropriate prototypes for use in complex mixture models, determine data-driven eigenfunctions for accurate nonparametric regression, and find a set of suitable features to use in a statistical classifier. In this thesis, methods for each of these tasks are built up from simple principles, compared to existing methods in the literature, and applied to data from astronomical all-sky surveys. I examine several important problems in astrophysics, such as estimation of star formation history parameters for galaxies, prediction of redshifts of galaxies using photometric data, and classification of different types of supernovae based on their photometric light curves. Fast methods for high-dimensional data analysis are crucial in each of these problems because they all involve the analysis of complicated high-dimensional data in large, all-sky surveys. Specifically, I estimate the star formation history parameters for the nearly 800,000 galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) Data Release 7 spectroscopic catalog, determine redshifts for over 300,000 galaxies in the SDSS photometric catalog, and estimate the types of 20,000 supernovae as part of the Supernova Photometric Classification Challenge. Accurate predictions and classifications are imperative in each of these examples because these estimates are utilized in broader inference problems

  17. Anchoring the Population II Distance Scale: Accurate Ages for Globular Clusters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chaboyer, Brian C.; Chaboyer, Brian C.; Carney, Bruce W.; Latham, David W.; Dunca, Douglas; Grand, Terry; Layden, Andy; Sarajedini, Ataollah; McWilliam, Andrew; Shao, Michael

    2004-01-01

    The metal-poor stars in the halo of the Milky Way galaxy were among the first objects formed in our Galaxy. These Population II stars are the oldest objects in the universe whose ages can be accurately determined. Age determinations for these stars allow us to set a firm lower limit, to the age of the universe and to probe the early formation history of the Milky Way. The age of the universe determined from studies of Population II stars may be compared to the expansion age of the universe and used to constrain cosmological models. The largest uncertainty in estimates for the ages of stars in our halo is due to the uncertainty in the distance scale to Population II objects. We propose to obtain accurate parallaxes to a number of Population II objects (globular clusters and field stars in the halo) resulting in a significant improvement in the Population II distance scale and greatly reducing the uncertainty in the estimated ages of the oldest stars in our galaxy. At the present time, the oldest stars are estimated to be 12.8 Gyr old, with an uncertainty of approx. 15%. The SIM observations obtained by this key project, combined with the supporting theoretical research and ground based observations outlined in this proposal will reduce the estimated uncertainty in the age estimates to 5%).

  18. Accurate estimation of sigma(exp 0) using AIRSAR data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holecz, Francesco; Rignot, Eric

    1995-01-01

    During recent years signature analysis, classification, and modeling of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data as well as estimation of geophysical parameters from SAR data have received a great deal of interest. An important requirement for the quantitative use of SAR data is the accurate estimation of the backscattering coefficient sigma(exp 0). In terrain with relief variations radar signals are distorted due to the projection of the scene topography into the slant range-Doppler plane. The effect of these variations is to change the physical size of the scattering area, leading to errors in the radar backscatter values and incidence angle. For this reason the local incidence angle, derived from sensor position and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data must always be considered. Especially in the airborne case, the antenna gain pattern can be an additional source of radiometric error, because the radar look angle is not known precisely as a result of the the aircraft motions and the local surface topography. Consequently, radiometric distortions due to the antenna gain pattern must also be corrected for each resolution cell, by taking into account aircraft displacements (position and attitude) and position of the backscatter element, defined by the DEM data. In this paper, a method to derive an accurate estimation of the backscattering coefficient using NASA/JPL AIRSAR data is presented. The results are evaluated in terms of geometric accuracy, radiometric variations of sigma(exp 0), and precision of the estimated forest biomass.

  19. Accurate and robust estimation of camera parameters using RANSAC

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Fuqiang; Cui, Yi; Wang, Yexin; Liu, Liu; Gao, He

    2013-03-01

    Camera calibration plays an important role in the field of machine vision applications. The popularly used calibration approach based on 2D planar target sometimes fails to give reliable and accurate results due to the inaccurate or incorrect localization of feature points. To solve this problem, an accurate and robust estimation method for camera parameters based on RANSAC algorithm is proposed to detect the unreliability and provide the corresponding solutions. Through this method, most of the outliers are removed and the calibration errors that are the main factors influencing measurement accuracy are reduced. Both simulative and real experiments have been carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed method and the results show that the proposed method is robust under large noise condition and quite efficient to improve the calibration accuracy compared with the original state.

  20. Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joiner, Joanna; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Vasilkov, Alexander P.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Levelt, Pieternel F.

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.

  1. Robust ODF smoothing for accurate estimation of fiber orientation.

    PubMed

    Beladi, Somaieh; Pathirana, Pubudu N; Brotchie, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Q-ball imaging was presented as a model free, linear and multimodal diffusion sensitive approach to reconstruct diffusion orientation distribution function (ODF) using diffusion weighted MRI data. The ODFs are widely used to estimate the fiber orientations. However, the smoothness constraint was proposed to achieve a balance between the angular resolution and noise stability for ODF constructs. Different regularization methods were proposed for this purpose. However, these methods are not robust and quite sensitive to the global regularization parameter. Although, numerical methods such as L-curve test are used to define a globally appropriate regularization parameter, it cannot serve as a universal value suitable for all regions of interest. This may result in over smoothing and potentially end up in neglecting an existing fiber population. In this paper, we propose to include an interpolation step prior to the spherical harmonic decomposition. This interpolation based approach is based on Delaunay triangulation provides a reliable, robust and accurate smoothing approach. This method is easy to implement and does not require other numerical methods to define the required parameters. Also, the fiber orientations estimated using this approach are more accurate compared to other common approaches. PMID:21096202

  2. Accurate estimators of correlation functions in Fourier space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sefusatti, E.; Crocce, M.; Scoccimarro, R.; Couchman, H. M. P.

    2016-08-01

    Efficient estimators of Fourier-space statistics for large number of objects rely on fast Fourier transforms (FFTs), which are affected by aliasing from unresolved small-scale modes due to the finite FFT grid. Aliasing takes the form of a sum over images, each of them corresponding to the Fourier content displaced by increasing multiples of the sampling frequency of the grid. These spurious contributions limit the accuracy in the estimation of Fourier-space statistics, and are typically ameliorated by simultaneously increasing grid size and discarding high-frequency modes. This results in inefficient estimates for e.g. the power spectrum when desired systematic biases are well under per cent level. We show that using interlaced grids removes odd images, which include the dominant contribution to aliasing. In addition, we discuss the choice of interpolation kernel used to define density perturbations on the FFT grid and demonstrate that using higher order interpolation kernels than the standard Cloud-In-Cell algorithm results in significant reduction of the remaining images. We show that combining fourth-order interpolation with interlacing gives very accurate Fourier amplitudes and phases of density perturbations. This results in power spectrum and bispectrum estimates that have systematic biases below 0.01 per cent all the way to the Nyquist frequency of the grid, thus maximizing the use of unbiased Fourier coefficients for a given grid size and greatly reducing systematics for applications to large cosmological data sets.

  3. Estimating age in black South African children.

    PubMed

    Uys, A; Fabris-Rotelli, I; Bernitz, H

    2014-03-01

    Forensic dentists are frequently required to determine the age at death of unidentified skeletons, or to age live individuals who have no record/documentation of their chronological age. In order to be of the greatest value, the method used should have the lowest possible standard deviation and be validated for the individual's specific population group. The method most frequently used in Forensic Dentistry for the estimation of age in children, was described by Demirjian et al. The maturity standards determined were based on samples of French Canadian origin and it has been recommended by several authors that correction factors be incorporated when applying this method to different population groups. The current research was carried out on a sample of 838 black South African children. A new model for age estimation in the said population was developed, to accurately determine the chronological age from dental development. A sample of 604 black South African children was used to test the validity of the method described by Demirjian. PMID:24974518

  4. Forensic Dental Age Estimation: An Overview.

    PubMed

    Lewis, James M; Senn, David R

    2015-06-01

    Forensic age estimation is a scientific process that estimates an individual's true chronologic age by assessing skeletal and dental development and maturation. Although human growth and maturation is unique to each individual, dental techniques for estimating age are currently considered the best in assessing true chronologic age particularly during the age range when the dentition is undergoing morphologic development. This article reviews the principles, methodology and commonly used techniques in forensic age estimation cases. PMID:26126347

  5. Accurate Orientation Estimation Using AHRS under Conditions of Magnetic Distortion

    PubMed Central

    Yadav, Nagesh; Bleakley, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Low cost, compact attitude heading reference systems (AHRS) are now being used to track human body movements in indoor environments by estimation of the 3D orientation of body segments. In many of these systems, heading estimation is achieved by monitoring the strength of the Earth's magnetic field. However, the Earth's magnetic field can be locally distorted due to the proximity of ferrous and/or magnetic objects. Herein, we propose a novel method for accurate 3D orientation estimation using an AHRS, comprised of an accelerometer, gyroscope and magnetometer, under conditions of magnetic field distortion. The system performs online detection and compensation for magnetic disturbances, due to, for example, the presence of ferrous objects. The magnetic distortions are detected by exploiting variations in magnetic dip angle, relative to the gravity vector, and in magnetic strength. We investigate and show the advantages of using both magnetic strength and magnetic dip angle for detecting the presence of magnetic distortions. The correction method is based on a particle filter, which performs the correction using an adaptive cost function and by adapting the variance during particle resampling, so as to place more emphasis on the results of dead reckoning of the gyroscope measurements and less on the magnetometer readings. The proposed method was tested in an indoor environment in the presence of various magnetic distortions and under various accelerations (up to 3 g). In the experiments, the proposed algorithm achieves <2° static peak-to-peak error and <5° dynamic peak-to-peak error, significantly outperforming previous methods. PMID:25347584

  6. Age Estimation in Forensic Sciences

    PubMed Central

    Alkass, Kanar; Buchholz, Bruce A.; Ohtani, Susumu; Yamamoto, Toshiharu; Druid, Henrik; Spalding, Kirsty L.

    2010-01-01

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster because the age at death, birth date, and year of death as well as gender can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization, has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this study, we analyzed teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that aboveground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955–1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 (14C), which has been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel, and 10 of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2 = 0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 1.0 ± 0.6 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 ± 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification. PMID:19965905

  7. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages.

    PubMed

    Drummond, Alexei J; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-07-19

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth-death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the 'morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses.This article is part of the themed issue 'Dating species divergences using

  8. Bayesian phylogenetic estimation of fossil ages

    PubMed Central

    Drummond, Alexei J.; Stadler, Tanja

    2016-01-01

    Recent advances have allowed for both morphological fossil evidence and molecular sequences to be integrated into a single combined inference of divergence dates under the rule of Bayesian probability. In particular, the fossilized birth–death tree prior and the Lewis-Mk model of discrete morphological evolution allow for the estimation of both divergence times and phylogenetic relationships between fossil and extant taxa. We exploit this statistical framework to investigate the internal consistency of these models by producing phylogenetic estimates of the age of each fossil in turn, within two rich and well-characterized datasets of fossil and extant species (penguins and canids). We find that the estimation accuracy of fossil ages is generally high with credible intervals seldom excluding the true age and median relative error in the two datasets of 5.7% and 13.2%, respectively. The median relative standard error (RSD) was 9.2% and 7.2%, respectively, suggesting good precision, although with some outliers. In fact, in the two datasets we analyse, the phylogenetic estimate of fossil age is on average less than 2 Myr from the mid-point age of the geological strata from which it was excavated. The high level of internal consistency found in our analyses suggests that the Bayesian statistical model employed is an adequate fit for both the geological and morphological data, and provides evidence from real data that the framework used can accurately model the evolution of discrete morphological traits coded from fossil and extant taxa. We anticipate that this approach will have diverse applications beyond divergence time dating, including dating fossils that are temporally unconstrained, testing of the ‘morphological clock', and for uncovering potential model misspecification and/or data errors when controversial phylogenetic hypotheses are obtained based on combined divergence dating analyses. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Dating species divergences

  9. Fast and Accurate Learning When Making Discrete Numerical Estimates.

    PubMed

    Sanborn, Adam N; Beierholm, Ulrik R

    2016-04-01

    Many everyday estimation tasks have an inherently discrete nature, whether the task is counting objects (e.g., a number of paint buckets) or estimating discretized continuous variables (e.g., the number of paint buckets needed to paint a room). While Bayesian inference is often used for modeling estimates made along continuous scales, discrete numerical estimates have not received as much attention, despite their common everyday occurrence. Using two tasks, a numerosity task and an area estimation task, we invoke Bayesian decision theory to characterize how people learn discrete numerical distributions and make numerical estimates. Across three experiments with novel stimulus distributions we found that participants fell between two common decision functions for converting their uncertain representation into a response: drawing a sample from their posterior distribution and taking the maximum of their posterior distribution. While this was consistent with the decision function found in previous work using continuous estimation tasks, surprisingly the prior distributions learned by participants in our experiments were much more adaptive: When making continuous estimates, participants have required thousands of trials to learn bimodal priors, but in our tasks participants learned discrete bimodal and even discrete quadrimodal priors within a few hundred trials. This makes discrete numerical estimation tasks good testbeds for investigating how people learn and make estimates. PMID:27070155

  10. Fast and Accurate Learning When Making Discrete Numerical Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Sanborn, Adam N.; Beierholm, Ulrik R.

    2016-01-01

    Many everyday estimation tasks have an inherently discrete nature, whether the task is counting objects (e.g., a number of paint buckets) or estimating discretized continuous variables (e.g., the number of paint buckets needed to paint a room). While Bayesian inference is often used for modeling estimates made along continuous scales, discrete numerical estimates have not received as much attention, despite their common everyday occurrence. Using two tasks, a numerosity task and an area estimation task, we invoke Bayesian decision theory to characterize how people learn discrete numerical distributions and make numerical estimates. Across three experiments with novel stimulus distributions we found that participants fell between two common decision functions for converting their uncertain representation into a response: drawing a sample from their posterior distribution and taking the maximum of their posterior distribution. While this was consistent with the decision function found in previous work using continuous estimation tasks, surprisingly the prior distributions learned by participants in our experiments were much more adaptive: When making continuous estimates, participants have required thousands of trials to learn bimodal priors, but in our tasks participants learned discrete bimodal and even discrete quadrimodal priors within a few hundred trials. This makes discrete numerical estimation tasks good testbeds for investigating how people learn and make estimates. PMID:27070155

  11. Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb, we incorporated Pb-contaminated soils or Pb acetate into diets for Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica), fed the quail for 15 days, and ...

  12. BIOACCESSIBILITY TESTS ACCURATELY ESTIMATE BIOAVAILABILITY OF LEAD TO QUAIL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, we measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contami...

  13. Ethics in age estimation of unaccompanied minors.

    PubMed

    Thevissen, P W; Kvaal, S I; Willems, G

    2012-11-01

    Children absconding from countries of conflict and war are often not able to document their age. When an age is given, it is frequently untraceable or poorly documented and therefore questioned by immigration authorities. Consequently many countries perform age estimations on these children. Provision of ethical practice during the age estimation investigation of unaccompanied minors is considered from different angles: (1) The UN convention on children's rights, formulating specific rights, protection, support, healthcare and education for unaccompanied minors. (2) Since most age estimation investigations are based on medical examination, the four basic principles of biomedical ethics, namely autonomy, beneficence, non-malevolence, justice. (3) The use of medicine for non treatment purposes. (4) How age estimates with highest accuracy in age prediction can be obtained. Ethical practice in age estimation of unaccompanied minors is achieved when different but related aspects are searched, evaluated, weighted in importance and subsequently combined. However this is not always feasible and unanswered questions remain. PMID:23221269

  14. [Hard to accurately determine the age of children seeking asylum].

    PubMed

    Hjern, Anders; Ascher, Henry

    2015-01-01

    Many unaccompanied asylum seeking young people in Europe lack documents proving their age. X rays of the wrist and wisdom teeth are often used by European migration authorities to assess age in this situation. The large inter-individual differences in physical maturation during adolescence create such large margins of error for these methods that their informative value is very limited. The Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare should reconsider its previous position on these methods and examine the possibility to include psychosocial methods in these age assessment procedures. PMID:26461513

  15. How Accurately Do Spectral Methods Estimate Effective Elastic Thickness?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perez-Gussinye, M.; Lowry, A. R.; Watts, A. B.; Velicogna, I.

    2002-12-01

    The effective elastic thickness, Te, is an important parameter that has the potential to provide information on the long-term thermal and mechanical properties of the the lithosphere. Previous studies have estimated Te using both forward and inverse (spectral) methods. While there is generally good agreement between the results obtained using these methods, spectral methods are limited because they depend on the spectral estimator and the window size chosen for analysis. In order to address this problem, we have used a multitaper technique which yields optimal estimates of the bias and variance of the Bouguer coherence function relating topography and gravity anomaly data. The technique has been tested using realistic synthetic topography and gravity. Synthetic data were generated assuming surface and sub-surface (buried) loading of an elastic plate with fractal statistics consistent with real data sets. The cases of uniform and spatially varying Te are examined. The topography and gravity anomaly data consist of 2000x2000 km grids sampled at 8 km interval. The bias in the Te estimate is assessed from the difference between the true Te value and the mean from analyzing 100 overlapping windows within the 2000x2000 km data grids. For the case in which Te is uniform, the bias and variance decrease with window size and increase with increasing true Te value. In the case of a spatially varying Te, however, there is a trade-off between spatial resolution and variance. With increasing window size the variance of the Te estimate decreases, but the spatial changes in Te are smeared out. We find that for a Te distribution consisting of a strong central circular region of Te=50 km (radius 600 km) and progressively smaller Te towards its edges, the 800x800 and 1000x1000 km window gave the best compromise between spatial resolution and variance. Our studies demonstrate that assumed stationarity of the relationship between gravity and topography data yields good results even in

  16. Accurate feature detection and estimation using nonlinear and multiresolution analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudin, Leonid; Osher, Stanley

    1994-11-01

    A program for feature detection and estimation using nonlinear and multiscale analysis was completed. The state-of-the-art edge detection was combined with multiscale restoration (as suggested by the first author) and robust results in the presence of noise were obtained. Successful applications to numerous images of interest to DOD were made. Also, a new market in the criminal justice field was developed, based in part, on this work.

  17. Accurate tempo estimation based on harmonic + noise decomposition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Alonso, Miguel; Richard, Gael; David, Bertrand

    2006-12-01

    We present an innovative tempo estimation system that processes acoustic audio signals and does not use any high-level musical knowledge. Our proposal relies on a harmonic + noise decomposition of the audio signal by means of a subspace analysis method. Then, a technique to measure the degree of musical accentuation as a function of time is developed and separately applied to the harmonic and noise parts of the input signal. This is followed by a periodicity estimation block that calculates the salience of musical accents for a large number of potential periods. Next, a multipath dynamic programming searches among all the potential periodicities for the most consistent prospects through time, and finally the most energetic candidate is selected as tempo. Our proposal is validated using a manually annotated test-base containing 961 music signals from various musical genres. In addition, the performance of the algorithm under different configurations is compared. The robustness of the algorithm when processing signals of degraded quality is also measured.

  18. Bayesian estimation of isotopic age differences

    SciTech Connect

    Curl, R.L.

    1988-08-01

    Isotopic dating is subject to uncertainties arising from counting statistics and experimental errors. These uncertainties are additive when an isotopic age difference is calculated. If large, they can lead to no significant age difference by classical statistics. In many cases, relative ages are known because of stratigraphic order or other clues. Such information can be used to establish a Bayes estimate of age difference which will include prior knowledge of age order. Age measurement errors are assumed to be log-normal and a noninformative but constrained bivariate prior for two true ages in known order is adopted. True-age ratio is distributed as a truncated log-normal variate. Its expected value gives an age-ratio estimate, and its variance provides credible intervals. Bayesian estimates of ages are different and in correct order even if measured ages are identical or reversed in order. For example, age measurements on two samples might both yield 100 ka with coefficients of variation of 0.2. Bayesian estimates are 22.7 ka for age difference with a 75% credible interval of (4.4, 43.7) ka.

  19. Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beyer, W. Nelson; Basta, Nicholas T; Chaney, Rufus L.; Henry, Paula F.; Mosby, David; Rattner, Barnett A.; Scheckel, Kirk G.; Sprague, Dan; Weber, John

    2016-01-01

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, we measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contaminated soils. Relative bioavailabilities were expressed by comparison with blood Pb concentrations in quail fed a Pb acetate reference diet. Diets containing soil from five Pb-contaminated Superfund sites had relative bioavailabilities from 33%-63%, with a mean of about 50%. Treatment of two of the soils with phosphorus significantly reduced the bioavailability of Pb. Bioaccessibility of Pb in the test soils was then measured in six in vitro tests and regressed on bioavailability. They were: the “Relative Bioavailability Leaching Procedure” (RBALP) at pH 1.5, the same test conducted at pH 2.5, the “Ohio State University In vitro Gastrointestinal” method (OSU IVG), the “Urban Soil Bioaccessible Lead Test”, the modified “Physiologically Based Extraction Test” and the “Waterfowl Physiologically Based Extraction Test.” All regressions had positive slopes. Based on criteria of slope and coefficient of determination, the RBALP pH 2.5 and OSU IVG tests performed very well. Speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy demonstrated that, on average, most of the Pb in the sampled soils was sorbed to minerals (30%), bound to organic matter (24%), or present as Pb sulfate (18%). Additional Pb was associated with P (chloropyromorphite, hydroxypyromorphite and tertiary Pb phosphate), and with Pb carbonates, leadhillite (a lead sulfate carbonate hydroxide), and Pb sulfide. The formation of chloropyromorphite reduced the bioavailability of Pb and the amendment of Pb-contaminated soils with P may be a thermodynamically favored means to sequester Pb.

  20. Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail.

    PubMed

    Beyer, W Nelson; Basta, Nicholas T; Chaney, Rufus L; Henry, Paula F P; Mosby, David E; Rattner, Barnett A; Scheckel, Kirk G; Sprague, Daniel T; Weber, John S

    2016-09-01

    Hazards of soil-borne lead (Pb) to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, the authors measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contaminated soils. Relative bioavailabilities were expressed by comparison with blood Pb concentrations in quail fed a Pb acetate reference diet. Diets containing soil from 5 Pb-contaminated Superfund sites had relative bioavailabilities from 33% to 63%, with a mean of approximately 50%. Treatment of 2 of the soils with phosphorus (P) significantly reduced the bioavailability of Pb. Bioaccessibility of Pb in the test soils was then measured in 6 in vitro tests and regressed on bioavailability: the relative bioavailability leaching procedure at pH 1.5, the same test conducted at pH 2.5, the Ohio State University in vitro gastrointestinal method, the urban soil bioaccessible lead test, the modified physiologically based extraction test, and the waterfowl physiologically based extraction test. All regressions had positive slopes. Based on criteria of slope and coefficient of determination, the relative bioavailability leaching procedure at pH 2.5 and Ohio State University in vitro gastrointestinal tests performed very well. Speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy demonstrated that, on average, most of the Pb in the sampled soils was sorbed to minerals (30%), bound to organic matter (24%), or present as Pb sulfate (18%). Additional Pb was associated with P (chloropyromorphite, hydroxypyromorphite, and tertiary Pb phosphate) and with Pb carbonates, leadhillite (a lead sulfate carbonate hydroxide), and Pb sulfide. The formation of chloropyromorphite reduced the bioavailability of Pb, and the amendment of Pb-contaminated soils with P may be a thermodynamically favored means to sequester Pb. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2311-2319. Published 2016 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of

  1. Age estimation and validation for South Pacific albacore Thunnus alalunga.

    PubMed

    Farley, J H; Williams, A J; Clear, N P; Davies, C R; Nicol, S J

    2013-05-01

    Validated estimates of age are presented for albacore Thunnus alalunga, sampled from a large part of the south-western Pacific Ocean, based on counts of annual opaque growth zones from transverse sections of otoliths. Counts of daily increments were used to estimate the location of the first opaque growth zone, which was completed before the first assumed birthday. The periodicity of opaque zones was estimated by marginal increment analysis and an oxytetracycline mark-recapture experiment. Both validation methods indicated that opaque zones formed over the austral summer and were completed by autumn to winter (April to August). The direct comparison of age estimates obtained from otoliths and dorsal-fin spines of the same fish indicated bias, which was assumed to be due to poor increment clarity and resorption of early growth zones in spines, resulting in imprecise age estimates. As such, age estimates from otoliths are considered to be more accurate than those from spines for T. alalunga. This is consistent with results for a growing number of tropical and temperate tuna Thunnini species. It is recommend that validated counts of annual growth zones from sectioned otoliths is used as the preferred method for estimating age-based parameters for assessment and management advice for these important stocks. PMID:23639152

  2. Calibration age and quartet divergence date estimation.

    PubMed

    Brochu, Christopher A

    2004-06-01

    The date of a single divergence point--between living alligators and crocodiles--was estimated with quartet dating using calibrations of widely divergent ages. For five mitochondrial sequence datasets, there is a clear relationship between calibration age and quartet estimate--quartets based on two relatively recent calibrations support younger divergence estimates than do quartets based on two older calibrations. Some of the estimates supported by young quartets are impossibly young and exclude the first appearance of the group in the fossil record as too old. The older estimates--those based on two relatively old calibrations--may be overestimates, and those based on one old and one recent calibration support divergence estimates very close to fossil data. This suggests that quartet dating methods may be most effective when calibrations are applied from different parts of a clade's history. PMID:15266985

  3. Relative Attribute SVM+ Learning for Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shengzheng; Tao, Dacheng; Yang, Jie

    2016-03-01

    When estimating age, human experts can provide privileged information that encodes the facial attributes of aging, such as smoothness, face shape, face acne, wrinkles, and bags under-eyes. In automatic age estimation, privileged information is unavailable to test images. To overcome this problem, we hypothesize that asymmetric information can be explored and exploited to improve the generalizability of the trained model. Using the learning using privileged information (LUPI) framework, we tested this hypothesis by carefully defining relative attributes for support vector machine (SVM+) to improve the performance of age estimation. We term this specific setting as relative attribute SVM+ (raSVM+), in which the privileged information enables separation of outliers from inliers at the training stage and effectively manipulates slack variables and age determination errors during model training, and thus guides the trained predictor toward a generalizable solution. Experimentally, the superiority of raSVM+ was confirmed by comparing it with state-of-the-art algorithms on the face and gesture recognition research network (FG-NET) and craniofacial longitudinal morphological face aging databases. raSVM+ is a promising development that improves age estimation, with the mean absolute error reaching 4.07 on FG-NET. PMID:25850101

  4. Age estimation using intraoral periapical radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Rajpal, Pooja S.; Krishnamurthy, Vasavi; Pagare, Sandeep S.; Sachdev, Geeta D.

    2016-01-01

    Context: Changes in the size of dental pulp caused by the apposition of secondary dentin and occlusal wear are morphometric parameters for estimating age. Aim: To estimate the accuracy of age evaluation by Kvaal's method and the effect of occlusal wear on age using digital intraoral periapical radiographs in a subset of the Indian population. Materials and Methods: A total of 300 teeth were radiographically evaluated using intraoral periapical digital radiographs from 50 adult patients. A few modifications were made in the design of the study compared to the original Kvaal's method. The radiographs of three teeth from each jaw were taken and morphometric measurements in ratios were analyzed, which included the pulp length to tooth length (X1), pulp length to root length (X2), pulp width to root widths at three defined levels (X3), and tooth length to root length (X4). Statistical Analysis: The Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (PCC) between age and the morphological variables showed that among them X1, X2, and X3 were statistically significant but not the tooth root length ratio (X4). Conclusions: The ratios X1, X2, and X3 were good indicators of age and hence a multiple linear regression model for age estimation was derived using these three variables. However, it was found that X4 was not a good indicator of age estimation in said population. PMID:27051226

  5. So You Think You Look Young? Matching Older Adults' Subjective Ages with Age Estimations Provided by Younger, Middle-Aged, and Older Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kotter-Gruhn, Dana; Hess, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Perceived age plays an important role in the context of age identity and social interactions. To examine how accurate individuals are in estimating how old they look and how old others are, younger, middle-aged, and older adults rated photographs of older target persons (for whom we had information about objective and subjective age) in terms of…

  6. Bayesian calibration for forensic age estimation.

    PubMed

    Ferrante, Luigi; Skrami, Edlira; Gesuita, Rosaria; Cameriere, Roberto

    2015-05-10

    Forensic medicine is increasingly called upon to assess the age of individuals. Forensic age estimation is mostly required in relation to illegal immigration and identification of bodies or skeletal remains. A variety of age estimation methods are based on dental samples and use of regression models, where the age of an individual is predicted by morphological tooth changes that take place over time. From the medico-legal point of view, regression models, with age as the dependent random variable entail that age tends to be overestimated in the young and underestimated in the old. To overcome this bias, we describe a new full Bayesian calibration method (asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration) for forensic age estimation that uses asymmetric Laplace distribution as the probability model. The method was compared with three existing approaches (two Bayesian and a classical method) using simulated data. Although its accuracy was comparable with that of the other methods, the asymmetric Laplace Bayesian calibration appears to be significantly more reliable and robust in case of misspecification of the probability model. The proposed method was also applied to a real dataset of values of the pulp chamber of the right lower premolar measured on x-ray scans of individuals of known age. PMID:25645903

  7. Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the dental age estimation technique developed by Kvaal et al.

    PubMed

    Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel

    2014-02-01

    In the present global socio-political scenario, an increasing demand exists for age estimation in living persons, such as refugees and asylum seekers, who seldom have any documentation for proof of identity. Age estimation in the living poses significant challenges because the methods need to be non-invasive, accurate and ethically viable. Methods based on the analysis of the pulp chamber are recommended for age estimation in living adults. There is, however, a paucity of studies of this nature and population specific standards in Western Australia. The aim of the present study is therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the method developed by Kvaal et al. (1995) for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 279 digital orthopantomograms (143 female; and 136 male) of Australian individuals were analysed. A subset of the total sample (50) was removed as a cross-validation (holdout) sample. Following the method described in Kvaal et al. (1995), length and width measurements of the tooth and pulp chamber were acquired in maxillary central and lateral incisors; second premolars, mandibular lateral incisors; canines and first premolars. Those measurements were then used to calculate a series of ratios (length and width), which were subsequently used to formulate age estimation regression models. The most accurate model based on a single tooth was for the maxillary central incisor (SEE ±9.367 years), followed by the maxillary second premolar (SEE ±9.525 years). Regression models based on the measurement of multiple teeth improved age prediction accuracy (SEE ±7.963 years). The regression models presented here have expected accuracy rates comparable (if not higher than) to established skeletal morphoscopic methods. This method, therefore, offers a statistically quantified methodological approach for forensic age estimation in Western Australian adults. PMID:24411636

  8. Epigenetic estimation of age in humpback whales.

    PubMed

    Polanowski, Andrea M; Robbins, Jooke; Chandler, David; Jarman, Simon N

    2014-09-01

    Age is a fundamental aspect of animal ecology, but is difficult to determine in many species. Humpback whales exemplify this as they have a lifespan comparable to humans, mature sexually as early as 4 years and have no reliable visual age indicators after their first year. Current methods for estimating humpback age cannot be applied to all individuals and populations. Assays for human age have recently been developed based on age-induced changes in DNA methylation of specific genes. We used information on age-associated DNA methylation in human and mouse genes to identify homologous gene regions in humpbacks. Humpback skin samples were obtained from individuals with a known year of birth and employed to calibrate relationships between cytosine methylation and age. Seven of 37 cytosines assayed for methylation level in humpback skin had significant age-related profiles. The three most age-informative cytosine markers were selected for a humpback epigenetic age assay. The assay has an R(2) of 0.787 (P = 3.04e-16) and predicts age from skin samples with a standard deviation of 2.991 years. The epigenetic method correctly determined which of parent-offspring pairs is the parent in more than 93% of cases. To demonstrate the potential of this technique, we constructed the first modern age profile of humpback whales off eastern Australia and compared the results to population structure 5 decades earlier. This is the first epigenetic age estimation method for a wild animal species and the approach we took for developing it can be applied to many other nonmodel organisms. PMID:24606053

  9. Age estimation of indian adults from orthopantomographs.

    PubMed

    Saxena, Sudhanshu

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a method for estimating the chronological age of Indian adults based on the relationship between age and various morphological variables of canine teeth, obtained using orthopantomographs. Orthopantomographs of 120 selected patients were digitized, and radiographic images of the right maxillary canine in each case were processed using a computer aided drafting program. Pulp/tooth area ratio, pulp/root length ratio, pulp/tooth length ratio, pulp/root width ratio at the cemento-enamel junction level, pulp/root width ratio at midroot level, and pulp/root width ratio at the midpoint between the cemento-enamel junction and the midroot of the canine were calculated by measuring various features on the images. Pearson's correlation, multiple linear regression, one way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and Student's t-test were used for statistical analysis. Regression equations were developed to estimate age from morphological variables. The observed minus the estimated age in the total study sample ranged from -2.2 to +1.5 years, in males from -0.9 to +0.8 years, while in females it was from -1 to +0.8 years. Differences between observed and estimated ages of subjects were not statistically significant. In conclusion there is a linear relationship of pulp/root width ratio at mid-root level and pulp/tooth area ratio of the right maxillary canine with chronological age in the Indian population. Age of subjects can therefore be estimated with a good degree of accuracy using regression equations. PMID:21503416

  10. Age estimation for forensic purposes in Italy: ethical issues.

    PubMed

    Focardi, Martina; Pinchi, Vilma; De Luca, Federica; Norelli, Gian-Aristide

    2014-05-01

    Age assessment in children and young adults is a relevant medicolegal issue due to the gradual increase of persons devoid of proper identification documents in European countries. Because of the illegal immigration and growing crime rates among children and adolescents, age estimation for forensic purposes is often required. The scientific research and the extensive experience of forensic experts in the last decades focused on the use of radiographic methods addressed to evaluate the degree of skeletal or dental development as the most accurate parameters to estimate the chronological age of children and adolescents. This paper analyzes the ethical issues related to age estimation procedures based on radiographic methods, showing how the ethical principles of beneficence, nonmalevolence, justice, and autonomy may be guaranteed during the execution of the age assessment in forensic practice. The procedure might be conducted in accordance with international guidelines and protocols, though they need a higher homogenization and standardization. A strong collaboration between various scientific societies of professionals (forensic odontologists, forensic pathologists, forensic anthropologist, radiologists, pediatricians, and psychologists), who have been involved in age estimation for years, is needed to reach this goal. PMID:24633466

  11. Radiologists’ ability to accurately estimate and compare their own interpretative mammography performance to their peers

    PubMed Central

    Cook, Andrea J.; Elmore, Joann G.; Zhu, Weiwei; Jackson, Sara L.; Carney, Patricia A.; Flowers, Chris; Onega, Tracy; Geller, Berta; Rosenberg, Robert D.; Miglioretti, Diana L.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine if U.S. radiologists accurately estimate their own interpretive performance of screening mammography and how they compare their performance to their peers’. Materials and Methods 174 radiologists from six Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registries completed a mailed survey between 2005 and 2006. Radiologists’ estimated and actual recall, false positive, and cancer detection rates and positive predictive value of biopsy recommendation (PPV2) for screening mammography were compared. Radiologists’ ratings of their performance as lower, similar, or higher than their peers were compared to their actual performance. Associations with radiologist characteristics were estimated using weighted generalized linear models. The study was approved by the institutional review boards of the participating sites, informed consent was obtained from radiologists, and procedures were HIPAA compliant. Results While most radiologists accurately estimated their cancer detection and recall rates (74% and 78% of radiologists), fewer accurately estimated their false positive rate and PPV2 (19% and 26%). Radiologists reported having similar (43%) or lower (31%) recall rates and similar (52%) or lower (33%) false positive rates compared to their peers, and similar (72%) or higher (23%) cancer detection rates and similar (72%) or higher (38%) PPV2. Estimation accuracy did not differ by radiologists’ characteristics except radiologists who interpret ≤1,000 mammograms annually were less accurate at estimating their recall rates. Conclusion Radiologists perceive their performance to be better than it actually is and at least as good as their peers. Radiologists have particular difficulty estimating their false positive rates and PPV2. PMID:22915414

  12. Accurate Non-parametric Estimation of Recent Effective Population Size from Segments of Identity by Descent

    PubMed Central

    Browning, Sharon R.; Browning, Brian L.

    2015-01-01

    Existing methods for estimating historical effective population size from genetic data have been unable to accurately estimate effective population size during the most recent past. We present a non-parametric method for accurately estimating recent effective population size by using inferred long segments of identity by descent (IBD). We found that inferred segments of IBD contain information about effective population size from around 4 generations to around 50 generations ago for SNP array data and to over 200 generations ago for sequence data. In human populations that we examined, the estimates of effective size were approximately one-third of the census size. We estimate the effective population size of European-ancestry individuals in the UK four generations ago to be eight million and the effective population size of Finland four generations ago to be 0.7 million. Our method is implemented in the open-source IBDNe software package. PMID:26299365

  13. Dental age estimation standards for a Western Australian population.

    PubMed

    Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel

    2015-12-01

    Age estimation in the juvenile skeleton primarily relies on the assessment of the degree of dental and skeletal development relative to full maturity. The timing of the mineralization and eruption of the teeth is a sequential process that, compared to skeletal growth and development, is less affected by extrinsic influences such as nutrition and/or chronic illness. Accordingly, radiographic visualization and analysis of different tooth formation stages are the foundation for a number of widely applied age estimation standards. Presently, however, there is a relative paucity of contemporary dental age estimation standards for a Western Australian population. To that end, the aim of the present study is to develop statistically quantified radiographic age estimation standards for a Western Australian juvenile population. A total of 392 digital orthopantomograms (202 male and 190 female) of Western Australian individuals are analyzed. Following, Moorrees et al. (J. Dent. Res. 42 (1963a) 490-502; Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 21 (1963) 205-213), dental development and root resorption was assessed. Alveolar eruption was analyzed following Bengston (Northwest Univ. Bull. 35 (1935) 3-9). Stages of dental development were used to formulate a series of age estimation polynomial regression models; prediction accuracy (±0.998 to 2.183 years) is further validated using a cross-validation (holdout) sample of 30 film orthopantomograms. A visual atlas of dental development and eruption was subsequently designed for the pooled sex sample. The standards presented here represent a non-invasive and statistically quantified approach for accurate dental age estimation in Western Australian juvenile individuals. PMID:26344558

  14. Age estimation of bloodstains using smartphones and digital image analysis.

    PubMed

    Thanakiatkrai, Phuvadol; Yaodam, Alisa; Kitpipit, Thitika

    2013-12-10

    Recent studies on bloodstains have focused on determining the time since deposition of bloodstains, which can provide useful temporal information to forensic investigations. This study is the first to use smartphone cameras in combination with a truly low-cost illumination system as a tool to estimate the age of bloodstains. Bloodstains were deposited on various substrates and photographed with a smartphone camera. Three smartphones (Samsung Galaxy S Plus, Apple iPhone 4, and Apple iPad 2) were compared. The environmental effects - temperature, humidity, light exposure, and anticoagulant - on the bloodstain age estimation process were explored. The color values from the digital images were extracted and correlated with time since deposition. Magenta had the highest correlation (R(2)=0.966) and was used in subsequent experiments. The Samsung Galaxy S Plus was the most suitable smartphone as its magenta decreased exponentially with increasing time and had highest repeatability (low variation within and between pictures). The quantifiable color change observed is consistent with well-established hemoglobin denaturation process. Using a statistical classification technique called Random Forests™, we could predict bloodstain age accurately up to 42 days with an error rate of 12%. Additionally, the age of forty blind stains were all correctly predicted, and 83% of mock casework samples were correctly classified. No within- and between-person variations were observed (p>0.05), while smartphone camera, temperature, humidity, and substrate color influenced the age determination process in different ways. Our technique provides a cheap, rapid, easy-to-use, and truly portable alternative to more complicated analysis using specialized equipment, e.g. spectroscopy and HPLC. No training is necessary with our method, and we envision a smartphone application that could take user inputs of environmental factors and provide an accurate estimate of bloodstain age. PMID:24314532

  15. Age estimation of adults from dental radiographs.

    PubMed

    Kvaal, S I; Kolltveit, K M; Thomsen, I O; Solheim, T

    1995-07-28

    Previous studies have shown that with advancing age the size of the dental pulp cavity is reduced as a result of secondary dentine deposit, so that measurements of this reduction can be used as an indicator of age. The aim of the present study was to find a method which could be used to estimate the chronological age of an adult from measurements of the size of the pulp on full mouth dental radiographs. The material consisted of periapical radiographs from 100 dental patients who had attended the clinics of the Dental Faculty in Oslo. The radiographs of six types of teeth from each jaw were measured: maxillary central and lateral incisors and second premolars, and mandibular lateral incisors, canines and first premolars. To compensate for differences in magnification and angulation on the radiographs, the following ratios were calculated: pulp/root length, pulp/tooth length, tooth/root length and pulp/root width at three different levels. Statistical analyses showed that Pearson's correlation coefficient between age and the different ratios for each type of tooth was significant, except for the ratio between tooth and root length, which was, therefore, excluded from further analysis. Principal component analyses were performed on all ratios, followed by regression analyses with age as dependent variable and the principal components as independent variables. The principal component analyses showed that only the two first of them had significant influence on age, and a good and easily calculated approximation to the first component was found to be the mean of all the ratios. A good approximation to the second principal component was found to be the difference between the mean of two width ratios and the mean of two length ratios, and these approximations of the first and second principal components were chosen as predictors in regression analyses with age as the dependent variable. The coefficient of determination (r2) for the estimation was strongest when the ratios

  16. Simple, fast and accurate eight points amplitude estimation method of sinusoidal signals for DSP based instrumentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vizireanu, D. N.; Halunga, S. V.

    2012-04-01

    A simple, fast and accurate amplitude estimation algorithm of sinusoidal signals for DSP based instrumentation is proposed. It is shown that eight samples, used in two steps, are sufficient. A practical analytical formula for amplitude estimation is obtained. Numerical results are presented. Simulations have been performed when the sampled signal is affected by white Gaussian noise and when the samples are quantized on a given number of bits.

  17. Secondary Forest Age and Tropical Forest Biomass Estimation Using TM

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nelson, R. F.; Kimes, D. S.; Salas, W. A.; Routhier, M.

    1999-01-01

    The age of secondary forests in the Amazon will become more critical with respect to the estimation of biomass and carbon budgets as tropical forest conversion continues. Multitemporal Thematic Mapper data were used to develop land cover histories for a 33,000 Square kM area near Ariquemes, Rondonia over a 7 year period from 1989-1995. The age of the secondary forest, a surrogate for the amount of biomass (or carbon) stored above-ground, was found to be unimportant in terms of biomass budget error rates in a forested TM scene which had undergone a 20% conversion to nonforest/agricultural cover types. In such a situation, the 80% of the scene still covered by primary forest accounted for over 98% of the scene biomass. The difference between secondary forest biomass estimates developed with and without age information were inconsequential relative to the estimate of biomass for the entire scene. However, in futuristic scenarios where all of the primary forest has been converted to agriculture and secondary forest (55% and 42% respectively), the ability to age secondary forest becomes critical. Depending on biomass accumulation rate assumptions, scene biomass budget errors on the order of -10% to +30% are likely if the age of the secondary forests are not taken into account. Single-date TM imagery cannot be used to accurately age secondary forests into single-year classes. A neural network utilizing TM band 2 and three TM spectral-texture measures (bands 3 and 5) predicted secondary forest age over a range of 0-7 years with an RMSE of 1.59 years and an R(Squared) (sub actual vs predicted) = 0.37. A proposal is made, based on a literature review, to use satellite imagery to identify general secondary forest age groups which, within group, exhibit relatively constant biomass accumulation rates.

  18. On the accurate estimation of gap fraction during daytime with digital cover photography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Y. R.; Ryu, Y.; Kimm, H.; Macfarlane, C.; Lang, M.; Sonnentag, O.

    2015-12-01

    Digital cover photography (DCP) has emerged as an indirect method to obtain gap fraction accurately. Thus far, however, the intervention of subjectivity, such as determining the camera relative exposure value (REV) and threshold in the histogram, hindered computing accurate gap fraction. Here we propose a novel method that enables us to measure gap fraction accurately during daytime under various sky conditions by DCP. The novel method computes gap fraction using a single DCP unsaturated raw image which is corrected for scattering effects by canopies and a reconstructed sky image from the raw format image. To test the sensitivity of the novel method derived gap fraction to diverse REVs, solar zenith angles and canopy structures, we took photos in one hour interval between sunrise to midday under dense and sparse canopies with REV 0 to -5. The novel method showed little variation of gap fraction across different REVs in both dense and spares canopies across diverse range of solar zenith angles. The perforated panel experiment, which was used to test the accuracy of the estimated gap fraction, confirmed that the novel method resulted in the accurate and consistent gap fractions across different hole sizes, gap fractions and solar zenith angles. These findings highlight that the novel method opens new opportunities to estimate gap fraction accurately during daytime from sparse to dense canopies, which will be useful in monitoring LAI precisely and validating satellite remote sensing LAI products efficiently.

  19. A new geometric-based model to accurately estimate arm and leg inertial estimates.

    PubMed

    Wicke, Jason; Dumas, Geneviève A

    2014-06-01

    Segment estimates of mass, center of mass and moment of inertia are required input parameters to analyze the forces and moments acting across the joints. The objectives of this study were to propose a new geometric model for limb segments, to evaluate it against criterion values obtained from DXA, and to compare its performance to five other popular models. Twenty five female and 24 male college students participated in the study. For the criterion measures, the participants underwent a whole body DXA scan, and estimates for segment mass, center of mass location, and moment of inertia (frontal plane) were directly computed from the DXA mass units. For the new model, the volume was determined from two standing frontal and sagittal photographs. Each segment was modeled as a stack of slices, the sections of which were ellipses if they are not adjoining another segment and sectioned ellipses if they were adjoining another segment (e.g. upper arm and trunk). Length of axes of the ellipses was obtained from the photographs. In addition, a sex-specific, non-uniform density function was developed for each segment. A series of anthropometric measurements were also taken by directly following the definitions provided of the different body segment models tested, and the same parameters determined for each model. Comparison of models showed that estimates from the new model were consistently closer to the DXA criterion than those from the other models, with an error of less than 5% for mass and moment of inertia and less than about 6% for center of mass location. PMID:24735506

  20. Accurate Estimation of the Entropy of Rotation-Translation Probability Distributions.

    PubMed

    Fogolari, Federico; Dongmo Foumthuim, Cedrix Jurgal; Fortuna, Sara; Soler, Miguel Angel; Corazza, Alessandra; Esposito, Gennaro

    2016-01-12

    The estimation of rotational and translational entropies in the context of ligand binding has been the subject of long-time investigations. The high dimensionality (six) of the problem and the limited amount of sampling often prevent the required resolution to provide accurate estimates by the histogram method. Recently, the nearest-neighbor distance method has been applied to the problem, but the solutions provided either address rotation and translation separately, therefore lacking correlations, or use a heuristic approach. Here we address rotational-translational entropy estimation in the context of nearest-neighbor-based entropy estimation, solve the problem numerically, and provide an exact and an approximate method to estimate the full rotational-translational entropy. PMID:26605696

  1. Polynomial Fitting of DT-MRI Fiber Tracts Allows Accurate Estimation of Muscle Architectural Parameters

    PubMed Central

    Damon, Bruce M.; Heemskerk, Anneriet M.; Ding, Zhaohua

    2012-01-01

    Fiber curvature is a functionally significant muscle structural property, but its estimation from diffusion-tensor MRI fiber tracking data may be confounded by noise. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of polynomial fitting of fiber tracts for improving the accuracy and precision of fiber curvature (κ) measurements. Simulated image datasets were created in order to provide data with known values for κ and pennation angle (θ). Simulations were designed to test the effects of increasing inherent fiber curvature (3.8, 7.9, 11.8, and 15.3 m−1), signal-to-noise ratio (50, 75, 100, and 150), and voxel geometry (13.8 and 27.0 mm3 voxel volume with isotropic resolution; 13.5 mm3 volume with an aspect ratio of 4.0) on κ and θ measurements. In the originally reconstructed tracts, θ was estimated accurately under most curvature and all imaging conditions studied; however, the estimates of κ were imprecise and inaccurate. Fitting the tracts to 2nd order polynomial functions provided accurate and precise estimates of κ for all conditions except very high curvature (κ=15.3 m−1), while preserving the accuracy of the θ estimates. Similarly, polynomial fitting of in vivo fiber tracking data reduced the κ values of fitted tracts from those of unfitted tracts and did not change the θ values. Polynomial fitting of fiber tracts allows accurate estimation of physiologically reasonable values of κ, while preserving the accuracy of θ estimation. PMID:22503094

  2. Using Dental Age to Estimate Chronological Age in Czech Children Aged 3-18 Years.

    PubMed

    Ginzelová, Kristina; Dostálová, Taťjana; Eliášová, Hana; Vinšů, Alex; Buček, Antonín; Bučková, Michaela

    2015-01-01

    The Demirjian methods to determine dental age are based on analysis of orthopantograms. The dental age estimation is based on establishing the tooth development stages. The purpose of this study was to assess the accuracy of estimation of dental age by Demirjian in the use of all of his four methods. 505 Czech healthy boys and girls aged 3 to 18 years were examined radiographically at the Department of Stomatology, Second Faculty of Medicine, Charles University in Prague. It was mentioned the factors of underlying diseases influence the accuracy of the dental age estimation. For statistical evaluation, descriptive statistics was used to compare deviations of the mean values of chronological and dental age in each age group. The resulting difference between dental age and chronological age is not significant in both genders only when using both Demirjian 7-teeth methods of 1973 and 1976. Therefore these may be most appropriately used for forensic age estimation. There are shown standard deviation differences in different countries. Demirjian's original 7-teeth method from 1973 and Demirjian's revised 4-teeth method from 1976 appear to be the best methods for calculating the dental age of healthy Czech children of both genders. PMID:26093668

  3. Skin Temperature Over the Carotid Artery, an Accurate Non-invasive Estimation of Near Core Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Imani, Farsad; Karimi Rouzbahani, Hamid Reza; Goudarzi, Mehrdad; Tarrahi, Mohammad Javad; Ebrahim Soltani, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background: During anesthesia, continuous body temperature monitoring is essential, especially in children. Anesthesia can increase the risk of loss of body temperature by three to four times. Hypothermia in children results in increased morbidity and mortality. Since the measurement points of the core body temperature are not easily accessible, near core sites, like rectum, are used. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to measure skin temperature over the carotid artery and compare it with the rectum temperature, in order to propose a model for accurate estimation of near core body temperature. Patients and Methods: Totally, 124 patients within the age range of 2 - 6 years, undergoing elective surgery, were selected. Temperature of rectum and skin over the carotid artery was measured. Then, the patients were randomly divided into two groups (each including 62 subjects), namely modeling (MG) and validation groups (VG). First, in the modeling group, the average temperature of the rectum and skin over the carotid artery were measured separately. The appropriate model was determined, according to the significance of the model’s coefficients. The obtained model was used to predict the rectum temperature in the second group (VG group). Correlation of the predicted values with the real values (the measured rectum temperature) in the second group was investigated. Also, the difference in the average values of these two groups was examined in terms of significance. Results: In the modeling group, the average rectum and carotid temperatures were 36.47 ± 0.54°C and 35.45 ± 0.62°C, respectively. The final model was obtained, as follows: Carotid temperature × 0.561 + 16.583 = Rectum temperature. The predicted value was calculated based on the regression model and then compared with the measured rectum value, which showed no significant difference (P = 0.361). Conclusions: The present study was the first research, in which rectum temperature was compared with that

  4. Accuracy of age estimation of radiographic methods using developing teeth.

    PubMed

    Maber, M; Liversidge, H M; Hector, M P

    2006-05-15

    Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in a number of disciplines, however the accuracy of different methods has not been systematically investigated. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of several methods. Tooth formation was assessed from radiographs of healthy children attending a dental teaching hospital. The sample was 946 children (491 boys, 455 girls, aged 3-16.99 years) with similar number of children from Bangladeshi and British Caucasian ethnic origin. Panoramic radiographs were examined and seven mandibular teeth staged according to Demirjian's dental maturity scale [A. Demirjian, Dental development, CD-ROM, Silver Platter Education, University of Montreal, Montreal, 1993-1994; A. Demirjian, H. Goldstein, J.M. Tanner, A new system of dental age assessment, Hum. Biol. 45 (1973) 211-227; A. Demirjian, H. Goldstein, New systems for dental maturity based on seven and four teeth, Ann. Hum. Biol. 3 (1976) 411-421], Nolla [C.M. Nolla, The development of the permanent teeth, J. Dent. Child. 27 (1960) 254-266] and Haavikko [K. Haavikko, The formation and the alveolar and clinical eruption of the permanent teeth. An orthopantomographic study. Proc. Finn. Dent. Soc. 66 (1970) 103-170]. Dental age was calculated for each method, including an adaptation of Demirjian's method with updated scoring [G. Willems, A. Van Olmen, B. Spiessens, C. Carels, Dental age estimation in Belgian children: Demirjian's technique revisited, J. Forensic Sci. 46 (2001) 893-895]. The mean difference (+/-S.D. in years) between dental and real age was calculated for each method and in the case of Haavikko, each tooth type; and tested using t-test. Mean difference was also calculated for the age group 3-13.99 years for Haavikko (mean and individual teeth). Results show that the most accurate method was by Willems [G. Willems, A. Van Olmen, B. Spiessens, C. Carels, Dental age estimation in Belgian children: Demirjian's technique revisited, J. Forensic Sci

  5. Accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks by 3-D remote sensing of individual trees.

    PubMed

    Omasa, Kenji; Qiu, Guo Yu; Watanuki, Kenichi; Yoshimi, Kenji; Akiyama, Yukihide

    2003-03-15

    Forests are one of the most important carbon sinks on Earth. However, owing to the complex structure, variable geography, and large area of forests, accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks is still a challenge for both site surveying and remote sensing. For these reasons, the Kyoto Protocol requires the establishment of methodologies for estimating the carbon stocks of forests (Kyoto Protocol, Article 5). A possible solution to this challenge is to remotely measure the carbon stocks of every tree in an entire forest. Here, we present a methodology for estimating carbon stocks of a Japanese cedar forest by using a high-resolution, helicopter-borne 3-dimensional (3-D) scanning lidar system that measures the 3-D canopy structure of every tree in a forest. Results show that a digital image (10-cm mesh) of woody canopy can be acquired. The treetop can be detected automatically with a reasonable accuracy. The absolute error ranges for tree height measurements are within 42 cm. Allometric relationships of height to carbon stocks then permit estimation of total carbon storage by measurement of carbon stocks of every tree. Thus, we suggest that our methodology can be used to accurately estimate the carbon stocks of Japanese cedar forests at a stand scale. Periodic measurements will reveal changes in forest carbon stocks. PMID:12680675

  6. A method to accurately estimate the muscular torques of human wearing exoskeletons by torque sensors.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Beomsoo; Jeon, Doyoung

    2015-01-01

    In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user's muscular effort is important to recognize the user's motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users' muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user's limb accurately from the measured torque. The user's limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user's muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions. PMID:25860074

  7. Accurate age determinations of several nearby open clusters containing magnetic Ap stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Silaj, J.; Landstreet, J. D.

    2014-06-01

    Context. To study the time evolution of magnetic fields, chemical abundance peculiarities, and other characteristics of magnetic Ap and Bp stars during their main sequence lives, a sample of these stars in open clusters has been obtained, as such stars can be assumed to have the same ages as the clusters to which they belong. However, in exploring age determinations in the literature, we find a large dispersion among different age determinations, even for bright, nearby clusters. Aims: Our aim is to obtain ages that are as accurate as possible for the seven nearby open clusters α Per, Coma Ber, IC 2602, NGC 2232, NGC 2451A, NGC 2516, and NGC 6475, each of which contains at least one magnetic Ap or Bp star. Simultaneously, we test the current calibrations of Te and luminosity for the Ap/Bp star members, and identify clearly blue stragglers in the clusters studied. Methods: We explore the possibility that isochrone fitting in the theoretical Hertzsprung-Russell diagram (i.e. log (L/L⊙) vs. log Te), rather than in the conventional colour-magnitude diagram, can provide more precise and accurate cluster ages, with well-defined uncertainties. Results: Well-defined ages are found for all the clusters studied. For the nearby clusters studied, the derived ages are not very sensitive to the small uncertainties in distance, reddening, membership, metallicity, or choice of isochrones. Our age determinations are all within the range of previously determined values, but the associated uncertainties are considerably smaller than the spread in recent age determinations from the literature. Furthermore, examination of proper motions and HR diagrams confirms that the Ap stars identified in these clusters are members, and that the presently accepted temperature scale and bolometric corrections for Ap stars are approximately correct. We show that in these theoretical HR diagrams blue stragglers are particularly easy to identify. Conclusions: Constructing the theoretical HR diagram

  8. Easy and accurate variance estimation of the nonparametric estimator of the partial area under the ROC curve and its application.

    PubMed

    Yu, Jihnhee; Yang, Luge; Vexler, Albert; Hutson, Alan D

    2016-06-15

    The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is a popular technique with applications, for example, investigating an accuracy of a biomarker to delineate between disease and non-disease groups. A common measure of accuracy of a given diagnostic marker is the area under the ROC curve (AUC). In contrast with the AUC, the partial area under the ROC curve (pAUC) looks into the area with certain specificities (i.e., true negative rate) only, and it can be often clinically more relevant than examining the entire ROC curve. The pAUC is commonly estimated based on a U-statistic with the plug-in sample quantile, making the estimator a non-traditional U-statistic. In this article, we propose an accurate and easy method to obtain the variance of the nonparametric pAUC estimator. The proposed method is easy to implement for both one biomarker test and the comparison of two correlated biomarkers because it simply adapts the existing variance estimator of U-statistics. In this article, we show accuracy and other advantages of the proposed variance estimation method by broadly comparing it with previously existing methods. Further, we develop an empirical likelihood inference method based on the proposed variance estimator through a simple implementation. In an application, we demonstrate that, depending on the inferences by either the AUC or pAUC, we can make a different decision on a prognostic ability of a same set of biomarkers. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. PMID:26790540

  9. Estimating the Effective Permittivity for Reconstructing Accurate Microwave-Radar Images.

    PubMed

    Lavoie, Benjamin R; Okoniewski, Michal; Fear, Elise C

    2016-01-01

    We present preliminary results from a method for estimating the optimal effective permittivity for reconstructing microwave-radar images. Using knowledge of how microwave-radar images are formed, we identify characteristics that are typical of good images, and define a fitness function to measure the relative image quality. We build a polynomial interpolant of the fitness function in order to identify the most likely permittivity values of the tissue. To make the estimation process more efficient, the polynomial interpolant is constructed using a locally and dimensionally adaptive sampling method that is a novel combination of stochastic collocation and polynomial chaos. Examples, using a series of simulated, experimental and patient data collected using the Tissue Sensing Adaptive Radar system, which is under development at the University of Calgary, are presented. These examples show how, using our method, accurate images can be reconstructed starting with only a broad estimate of the permittivity range. PMID:27611785

  10. Accurate estimation of object location in an image sequence using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Yuan-Liang; Kasturi, Rangachar

    1994-01-01

    In autonomous navigation, it is essential to obtain a three-dimensional (3D) description of the static environment in which the vehicle is traveling. For a rotorcraft conducting low-latitude flight, this description is particularly useful for obstacle detection and avoidance. In this paper, we address the problem of 3D position estimation for static objects from a monocular sequence of images captured from a low-latitude flying helicopter. Since the environment is static, it is well known that the optical flow in the image will produce a radiating pattern from the focus of expansion. We propose a motion analysis system which utilizes the epipolar constraint to accurately estimate 3D positions of scene objects in a real world image sequence taken from a low-altitude flying helicopter. Results show that this approach gives good estimates of object positions near the rotorcraft's intended flight-path.

  11. Effective Echo Detection and Accurate Orbit Estimation Algorithms for Space Debris Radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isoda, Kentaro; Sakamoto, Takuya; Sato, Toru

    Orbit estimation of space debris, objects of no inherent value orbiting the earth, is a task that is important for avoiding collisions with spacecraft. The Kamisaibara Spaceguard Center radar system was built in 2004 as the first radar facility in Japan devoted to the observation of space debris. In order to detect the smaller debris, coherent integration is effective in improving SNR (Signal-to-Noise Ratio). However, it is difficult to apply coherent integration to real data because the motions of the targets are unknown. An effective algorithm is proposed for echo detection and orbit estimation of the faint echoes from space debris. The characteristics of the evaluation function are utilized by the algorithm. Experiments show the proposed algorithm improves SNR by 8.32dB and enables estimation of orbital parameters accurately to allow for re-tracking with a single radar.

  12. Parameter Estimation of Ion Current Formulations Requires Hybrid Optimization Approach to Be Both Accurate and Reliable

    PubMed Central

    Loewe, Axel; Wilhelms, Mathias; Schmid, Jochen; Krause, Mathias J.; Fischer, Fathima; Thomas, Dierk; Scholz, Eberhard P.; Dössel, Olaf; Seemann, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology provided insights into arrhythmogenesis and paved the way toward tailored therapies in the last years. To fully leverage in silico models in future research, these models need to be adapted to reflect pathologies, genetic alterations, or pharmacological effects, however. A common approach is to leave the structure of established models unaltered and estimate the values of a set of parameters. Today’s high-throughput patch clamp data acquisition methods require robust, unsupervised algorithms that estimate parameters both accurately and reliably. In this work, two classes of optimization approaches are evaluated: gradient-based trust-region-reflective and derivative-free particle swarm algorithms. Using synthetic input data and different ion current formulations from the Courtemanche et al. electrophysiological model of human atrial myocytes, we show that neither of the two schemes alone succeeds to meet all requirements. Sequential combination of the two algorithms did improve the performance to some extent but not satisfactorily. Thus, we propose a novel hybrid approach coupling the two algorithms in each iteration. This hybrid approach yielded very accurate estimates with minimal dependency on the initial guess using synthetic input data for which a ground truth parameter set exists. When applied to measured data, the hybrid approach yielded the best fit, again with minimal variation. Using the proposed algorithm, a single run is sufficient to estimate the parameters. The degree of superiority over the other investigated algorithms in terms of accuracy and robustness depended on the type of current. In contrast to the non-hybrid approaches, the proposed method proved to be optimal for data of arbitrary signal to noise ratio. The hybrid algorithm proposed in this work provides an important tool to integrate experimental data into computational models both accurately and robustly allowing to assess the often non

  13. Accurate reconstruction of viral quasispecies spectra through improved estimation of strain richness

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Estimating the number of different species (richness) in a mixed microbial population has been a main focus in metagenomic research. Existing methods of species richness estimation ride on the assumption that the reads in each assembled contig correspond to only one of the microbial genomes in the population. This assumption and the underlying probabilistic formulations of existing methods are not useful for quasispecies populations where the strains are highly genetically related. The lack of knowledge on the number of different strains in a quasispecies population is observed to hinder the precision of existing Viral Quasispecies Spectrum Reconstruction (QSR) methods due to the uncontrolled reconstruction of a large number of in silico false positives. In this work, we formulated a novel probabilistic method for strain richness estimation specifically targeting viral quasispecies. By using this approach we improved our recently proposed spectrum reconstruction pipeline ViQuaS to achieve higher levels of precision in reconstructed quasispecies spectra without compromising the recall rates. We also discuss how one other existing popular QSR method named ShoRAH can be improved using this new approach. Results On benchmark data sets, our estimation method provided accurate richness estimates (< 0.2 median estimation error) and improved the precision of ViQuaS by 2%-13% and F-score by 1%-9% without compromising the recall rates. We also demonstrate that our estimation method can be used to improve the precision and F-score of ShoRAH by 0%-7% and 0%-5% respectively. Conclusions The proposed probabilistic estimation method can be used to estimate the richness of viral populations with a quasispecies behavior and to improve the accuracy of the quasispecies spectra reconstructed by the existing methods ViQuaS and ShoRAH in the presence of a moderate level of technical sequencing errors. Availability http://sourceforge.net/projects/viquas/ PMID:26678073

  14. Utilization of bone impedance for age estimation in postmortem cases.

    PubMed

    Ishikawa, Noboru; Suganami, Hideki; Nishida, Atsushi; Miyamori, Daisuke; Kakiuchi, Yasuhiro; Yamada, Naotake; Wook-Cheol, Kim; Kubo, Toshikazu; Ikegaya, Hiroshi

    2015-11-01

    In the field of Forensic Medicine the number of unidentified cadavers has increased due to natural disasters and international terrorism. The age estimation is very important for identification of the victims. The degree of sagittal closure is one of such age estimation methods. However it is not widely accepted as a reliable method for age estimation. In this study, we have examined whether measuring impedance value (z-values) of the sagittal suture of the skull is related to the age in men and women and discussed the possibility to use bone impedance for age estimation. Bone impedance values increased with aging and decreased after the age of 64.5. Then we compared age estimation through the conventional visual method and the proposed bone impedance measurement technique. It is suggested that the bone impedance measuring technique may be of value to forensic science as a method of age estimation. PMID:26421720

  15. Intraocular lens power estimation by accurate ray tracing for eyes underwent previous refractive surgeries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Que; Wang, Shanshan; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Chunyu; Zhang, Lu; Meng, Qingyu; Zhu, Qiudong

    2015-08-01

    For normal eyes without history of any ocular surgery, traditional equations for calculating intraocular lens (IOL) power, such as SRK-T, Holladay, Higis, SRK-II, et al., all were relativley accurate. However, for eyes underwent refractive surgeries, such as LASIK, or eyes diagnosed as keratoconus, these equations may cause significant postoperative refractive error, which may cause poor satisfaction after cataract surgery. Although some methods have been carried out to solve this problem, such as Hagis-L equation[1], or using preoperative data (data before LASIK) to estimate K value[2], no precise equations were available for these eyes. Here, we introduced a novel intraocular lens power estimation method by accurate ray tracing with optical design software ZEMAX. Instead of using traditional regression formula, we adopted the exact measured corneal elevation distribution, central corneal thickness, anterior chamber depth, axial length, and estimated effective lens plane as the input parameters. The calculation of intraocular lens power for a patient with keratoconus and another LASIK postoperative patient met very well with their visual capacity after cataract surgery.

  16. Accurate and quantitative polarization-sensitive OCT by unbiased birefringence estimator with noise-stochastic correction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasaragod, Deepa; Sugiyama, Satoshi; Ikuno, Yasushi; Alonso-Caneiro, David; Yamanari, Masahiro; Fukuda, Shinichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Hong, Young-Joo; Li, En; Makita, Shuichi; Miura, Masahiro; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

    2016-03-01

    Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) is a functional extension of OCT that contrasts the polarization properties of tissues. It has been applied to ophthalmology, cardiology, etc. Proper quantitative imaging is required for a widespread clinical utility. However, the conventional method of averaging to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the contrast of the phase retardation (or birefringence) images introduce a noise bias offset from the true value. This bias reduces the effectiveness of birefringence contrast for a quantitative study. Although coherent averaging of Jones matrix tomography has been widely utilized and has improved the image quality, the fundamental limitation of nonlinear dependency of phase retardation and birefringence to the SNR was not overcome. So the birefringence obtained by PS-OCT was still not accurate for a quantitative imaging. The nonlinear effect of SNR to phase retardation and birefringence measurement was previously formulated in detail for a Jones matrix OCT (JM-OCT) [1]. Based on this, we had developed a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator and quantitative birefringence imaging was demonstrated [2]. However, this first version of estimator had a theoretical shortcoming. It did not take into account the stochastic nature of SNR of OCT signal. In this paper, we present an improved version of the MAP estimator which takes into account the stochastic property of SNR. This estimator uses a probability distribution function (PDF) of true local retardation, which is proportional to birefringence, under a specific set of measurements of the birefringence and SNR. The PDF was pre-computed by a Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation based on the mathematical model of JM-OCT before the measurement. A comparison between this new MAP estimator, our previous MAP estimator [2], and the standard mean estimator is presented. The comparisons are performed both by numerical simulation and in vivo measurements of anterior and

  17. Regularization Based Iterative Point Match Weighting for Accurate Rigid Transformation Estimation.

    PubMed

    Liu, Yonghuai; De Dominicis, Luigi; Wei, Baogang; Chen, Liang; Martin, Ralph R

    2015-09-01

    Feature extraction and matching (FEM) for 3D shapes finds numerous applications in computer graphics and vision for object modeling, retrieval, morphing, and recognition. However, unavoidable incorrect matches lead to inaccurate estimation of the transformation relating different datasets. Inspired by AdaBoost, this paper proposes a novel iterative re-weighting method to tackle the challenging problem of evaluating point matches established by typical FEM methods. Weights are used to indicate the degree of belief that each point match is correct. Our method has three key steps: (i) estimation of the underlying transformation using weighted least squares, (ii) penalty parameter estimation via minimization of the weighted variance of the matching errors, and (iii) weight re-estimation taking into account both matching errors and information learnt in previous iterations. A comparative study, based on real shapes captured by two laser scanners, shows that the proposed method outperforms four other state-of-the-art methods in terms of evaluating point matches between overlapping shapes established by two typical FEM methods, resulting in more accurate estimates of the underlying transformation. This improved transformation can be used to better initialize the iterative closest point algorithm and its variants, making 3D shape registration more likely to succeed. PMID:26357287

  18. Caregiver's Country of Birth Is a Significant Determinant of Accurate Perception of Preschool-Age Children's Weight

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Natale, Ruby; Uhlhorn, Susan B.; Lopez-Mitnik, Gabriela; Camejo, Stephanie; Englebert, Nicole; Delamater, Alan M.; Messiah, Sarah E.

    2016-01-01

    Background: One in four preschool-age children in the United States are currently overweight or obese. Previous studies have shown that caregivers of this age group often have difficulty accurately recognizing their child's weight status. The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with accurate/inaccurate perception of child body…

  19. The accurate estimation of physicochemical properties of ternary mixtures containing ionic liquids via artificial neural networks.

    PubMed

    Cancilla, John C; Díaz-Rodríguez, Pablo; Matute, Gemma; Torrecilla, José S

    2015-02-14

    The estimation of the density and refractive index of ternary mixtures comprising the ionic liquid (IL) 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium tetrafluoroborate, 2-propanol, and water at a fixed temperature of 298.15 K has been attempted through artificial neural networks. The obtained results indicate that the selection of this mathematical approach was a well-suited option. The mean prediction errors obtained, after simulating with a dataset never involved in the training process of the model, were 0.050% and 0.227% for refractive index and density estimation, respectively. These accurate results, which have been attained only using the composition of the dissolutions (mass fractions), imply that, most likely, ternary mixtures similar to the one analyzed, can be easily evaluated utilizing this algorithmic tool. In addition, different chemical processes involving ILs can be monitored precisely, and furthermore, the purity of the compounds in the studied mixtures can be indirectly assessed thanks to the high accuracy of the model. PMID:25583241

  20. Toward an Accurate Estimate of the Exfoliation Energy of Black Phosphorus: A Periodic Quantum Chemical Approach.

    PubMed

    Sansone, Giuseppe; Maschio, Lorenzo; Usvyat, Denis; Schütz, Martin; Karttunen, Antti

    2016-01-01

    The black phosphorus (black-P) crystal is formed of covalently bound layers of phosphorene stacked together by weak van der Waals interactions. An experimental measurement of the exfoliation energy of black-P is not available presently, making theoretical studies the most important source of information for the optimization of phosphorene production. Here, we provide an accurate estimate of the exfoliation energy of black-P on the basis of multilevel quantum chemical calculations, which include the periodic local Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of second order, augmented by higher-order corrections, which are evaluated with finite clusters mimicking the crystal. Very similar results are also obtained by density functional theory with the D3-version of Grimme's empirical dispersion correction. Our estimate of the exfoliation energy for black-P of -151 meV/atom is substantially larger than that of graphite, suggesting the need for different strategies to generate isolated layers for these two systems. PMID:26651397

  1. Estimating age of sea otters with cementum layers in the first premolar

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bodkin, J.L.; Ames, J.A.; Jameson, R.J.; Johnson, A.M.; Matson, G.M.

    1997-01-01

    We assessed sources of variation in the use of tooth cementum layers to determine age by comparing counts in premolar tooth sections to known ages of 20 sea otters (Enhydra lutris). Three readers examined each sample 3 times, and the 3 readings of each sample were averaged by reader to provide the mean estimated age. The mean (SE) of known age sample was 5.2 years (1.0) and the 3 mean estimated ages were 7.0 (1.0), 5.9 (1.1) and, 4.4 (0.8). The proportion of estimates accurate to within +/- 1 year were 0.25, 0.55, and 0.65 and to within +/- 2 years 0.65, 0.80, and 0.70, by reader. The proportions of samples estimated with >3 years error were 0.20, 0.10, and 0.05. Errors as large as 7, 6, and 5 years were made among readers. In few instances did all readers uniformly provide either accurate (error 1 yr) counts. In most cases (0.85), 1 or 2 of the readers provided accurate counts. Coefficients of determination (R2) between known ages and mean estimated ages were 0.81, 0.87, and 0.87, by reader. The results of this study suggest that cementum layers within sea otter premolar teeth likely are deposited annually and can be used for age estimation. However, criteria used in interpreting layers apparently varied by reader, occasionally resulting in large errors, which were not consistent among readers. While large errors were evident for some individual otters, there were no differences between the known and estimated age-class distribution generated by each reader. Until accuracy can be improved, application of this ageing technique should be limited to sample sizes of at least 6-7 individuals within age classes of >/=1 year.

  2. Lamb mode selection for accurate wall loss estimation via guided wave tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Huthwaite, P.; Ribichini, R.; Lowe, M. J. S.; Cawley, P.

    2014-02-18

    Guided wave tomography offers a method to accurately quantify wall thickness losses in pipes and vessels caused by corrosion. This is achieved using ultrasonic waves transmitted over distances of approximately 1–2m, which are measured by an array of transducers and then used to reconstruct a map of wall thickness throughout the inspected region. To achieve accurate estimations of remnant wall thickness, it is vital that a suitable Lamb mode is chosen. This paper presents a detailed evaluation of the fundamental modes, S{sub 0} and A{sub 0}, which are of primary interest in guided wave tomography thickness estimates since the higher order modes do not exist at all thicknesses, to compare their performance using both numerical and experimental data while considering a range of challenging phenomena. The sensitivity of A{sub 0} to thickness variations was shown to be superior to S{sub 0}, however, the attenuation from A{sub 0} when a liquid loading was present was much higher than S{sub 0}. A{sub 0} was less sensitive to the presence of coatings on the surface of than S{sub 0}.

  3. Lamb mode selection for accurate wall loss estimation via guided wave tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huthwaite, P.; Ribichini, R.; Lowe, M. J. S.; Cawley, P.

    2014-02-01

    Guided wave tomography offers a method to accurately quantify wall thickness losses in pipes and vessels caused by corrosion. This is achieved using ultrasonic waves transmitted over distances of approximately 1-2m, which are measured by an array of transducers and then used to reconstruct a map of wall thickness throughout the inspected region. To achieve accurate estimations of remnant wall thickness, it is vital that a suitable Lamb mode is chosen. This paper presents a detailed evaluation of the fundamental modes, S0 and A0, which are of primary interest in guided wave tomography thickness estimates since the higher order modes do not exist at all thicknesses, to compare their performance using both numerical and experimental data while considering a range of challenging phenomena. The sensitivity of A0 to thickness variations was shown to be superior to S0, however, the attenuation from A0 when a liquid loading was present was much higher than S0. A0 was less sensitive to the presence of coatings on the surface of than S0.

  4. Removing the thermal component from heart rate provides an accurate VO2 estimation in forest work.

    PubMed

    Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Lebel, Luc; Kolus, Ahmet

    2016-05-01

    Heart rate (HR) was monitored continuously in 41 forest workers performing brushcutting or tree planting work. 10-min seated rest periods were imposed during the workday to estimate the HR thermal component (ΔHRT) per Vogt et al. (1970, 1973). VO2 was measured using a portable gas analyzer during a morning submaximal step-test conducted at the work site, during a work bout over the course of the day (range: 9-74 min), and during an ensuing 10-min rest pause taken at the worksite. The VO2 estimated, from measured HR and from corrected HR (thermal component removed), were compared to VO2 measured during work and rest. Varied levels of HR thermal component (ΔHRTavg range: 0-38 bpm) originating from a wide range of ambient thermal conditions, thermal clothing insulation worn, and physical load exerted during work were observed. Using raw HR significantly overestimated measured work VO2 by 30% on average (range: 1%-64%). 74% of VO2 prediction error variance was explained by the HR thermal component. VO2 estimated from corrected HR, was not statistically different from measured VO2. Work VO2 can be estimated accurately in the presence of thermal stress using Vogt et al.'s method, which can be implemented easily by the practitioner with inexpensive instruments. PMID:26851474

  5. Accurate Estimation of the Intrinsic Dimension Using Graph Distances: Unraveling the Geometric Complexity of Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Granata, Daniele; Carnevale, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    The collective behavior of a large number of degrees of freedom can be often described by a handful of variables. This observation justifies the use of dimensionality reduction approaches to model complex systems and motivates the search for a small set of relevant “collective” variables. Here, we analyze this issue by focusing on the optimal number of variable needed to capture the salient features of a generic dataset and develop a novel estimator for the intrinsic dimension (ID). By approximating geodesics with minimum distance paths on a graph, we analyze the distribution of pairwise distances around the maximum and exploit its dependency on the dimensionality to obtain an ID estimate. We show that the estimator does not depend on the shape of the intrinsic manifold and is highly accurate, even for exceedingly small sample sizes. We apply the method to several relevant datasets from image recognition databases and protein multiple sequence alignments and discuss possible interpretations for the estimated dimension in light of the correlations among input variables and of the information content of the dataset. PMID:27510265

  6. Hybridization modeling of oligonucleotide SNP arrays for accurate DNA copy number estimation

    PubMed Central

    Wan, Lin; Sun, Kelian; Ding, Qi; Cui, Yuehua; Li, Ming; Wen, Yalu; Elston, Robert C.; Qian, Minping; Fu, Wenjiang J

    2009-01-01

    Affymetrix SNP arrays have been widely used for single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotype calling and DNA copy number variation inference. Although numerous methods have achieved high accuracy in these fields, most studies have paid little attention to the modeling of hybridization of probes to off-target allele sequences, which can affect the accuracy greatly. In this study, we address this issue and demonstrate that hybridization with mismatch nucleotides (HWMMN) occurs in all SNP probe-sets and has a critical effect on the estimation of allelic concentrations (ACs). We study sequence binding through binding free energy and then binding affinity, and develop a probe intensity composite representation (PICR) model. The PICR model allows the estimation of ACs at a given SNP through statistical regression. Furthermore, we demonstrate with cell-line data of known true copy numbers that the PICR model can achieve reasonable accuracy in copy number estimation at a single SNP locus, by using the ratio of the estimated AC of each sample to that of the reference sample, and can reveal subtle genotype structure of SNPs at abnormal loci. We also demonstrate with HapMap data that the PICR model yields accurate SNP genotype calls consistently across samples, laboratories and even across array platforms. PMID:19586935

  7. Accurate Estimation of the Intrinsic Dimension Using Graph Distances: Unraveling the Geometric Complexity of Datasets.

    PubMed

    Granata, Daniele; Carnevale, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    The collective behavior of a large number of degrees of freedom can be often described by a handful of variables. This observation justifies the use of dimensionality reduction approaches to model complex systems and motivates the search for a small set of relevant "collective" variables. Here, we analyze this issue by focusing on the optimal number of variable needed to capture the salient features of a generic dataset and develop a novel estimator for the intrinsic dimension (ID). By approximating geodesics with minimum distance paths on a graph, we analyze the distribution of pairwise distances around the maximum and exploit its dependency on the dimensionality to obtain an ID estimate. We show that the estimator does not depend on the shape of the intrinsic manifold and is highly accurate, even for exceedingly small sample sizes. We apply the method to several relevant datasets from image recognition databases and protein multiple sequence alignments and discuss possible interpretations for the estimated dimension in light of the correlations among input variables and of the information content of the dataset. PMID:27510265

  8. How Accurate and Robust Are the Phylogenetic Estimates of Austronesian Language Relationships?

    PubMed Central

    Greenhill, Simon J.; Drummond, Alexei J.; Gray, Russell D.

    2010-01-01

    We recently used computational phylogenetic methods on lexical data to test between two scenarios for the peopling of the Pacific. Our analyses of lexical data supported a pulse-pause scenario of Pacific settlement in which the Austronesian speakers originated in Taiwan around 5,200 years ago and rapidly spread through the Pacific in a series of expansion pulses and settlement pauses. We claimed that there was high congruence between traditional language subgroups and those observed in the language phylogenies, and that the estimated age of the Austronesian expansion at 5,200 years ago was consistent with the archaeological evidence. However, the congruence between the language phylogenies and the evidence from historical linguistics was not quantitatively assessed using tree comparison metrics. The robustness of the divergence time estimates to different calibration points was also not investigated exhaustively. Here we address these limitations by using a systematic tree comparison metric to calculate the similarity between the Bayesian phylogenetic trees and the subgroups proposed by historical linguistics, and by re-estimating the age of the Austronesian expansion using only the most robust calibrations. The results show that the Austronesian language phylogenies are highly congruent with the traditional subgroupings, and the date estimates are robust even when calculated using a restricted set of historical calibrations. PMID:20224774

  9. Methods for accurate estimation of net discharge in a tidal channel

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, M.R.; Bland, R.

    2000-01-01

    Accurate estimates of net residual discharge in tidally affected rivers and estuaries are possible because of recently developed ultrasonic discharge measurement techniques. Previous discharge estimates using conventional mechanical current meters and methods based on stage/discharge relations or water slope measurements often yielded errors that were as great as or greater than the computed residual discharge. Ultrasonic measurement methods consist of: 1) the use of ultrasonic instruments for the measurement of a representative 'index' velocity used for in situ estimation of mean water velocity and 2) the use of the acoustic Doppler current discharge measurement system to calibrate the index velocity measurement data. Methods used to calibrate (rate) the index velocity to the channel velocity measured using the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler are the most critical factors affecting the accuracy of net discharge estimation. The index velocity first must be related to mean channel velocity and then used to calculate instantaneous channel discharge. Finally, discharge is low-pass filtered to remove the effects of the tides. An ultrasonic velocity meter discharge-measurement site in a tidally affected region of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers was used to study the accuracy of the index velocity calibration procedure. Calibration data consisting of ultrasonic velocity meter index velocity and concurrent acoustic Doppler discharge measurement data were collected during three time periods. Two sets of data were collected during a spring tide (monthly maximum tidal current) and one of data collected during a neap tide (monthly minimum tidal current). The relative magnitude of instrumental errors, acoustic Doppler discharge measurement errors, and calibration errors were evaluated. Calibration error was found to be the most significant source of error in estimating net discharge. Using a comprehensive calibration method, net discharge estimates developed from the three

  10. MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blewitt, Geoffrey; Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

    2016-03-01

    Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj-xi)/(tj-ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

  11. High-Resolution Tsunami Inundation Simulations Based on Accurate Estimations of Coastal Waveforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oishi, Y.; Imamura, F.; Sugawara, D.; Furumura, T.

    2015-12-01

    We evaluate the accuracy of high-resolution tsunami inundation simulations in detail using the actual observational data of the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake (Mw9.0) and investigate the methodologies to improve the simulation accuracy.Due to the recent development of parallel computing technologies, high-resolution tsunami inundation simulations are conducted more commonly than before. To evaluate how accurately these simulations can reproduce inundation processes, we test several types of simulation configurations on a parallel computer, where we can utilize the observational data (e.g., offshore and coastal waveforms and inundation properties) that are recorded during the Tohoku-Oki earthquake.Before discussing the accuracy of inundation processes on land, the incident waves at coastal sites must be accurately estimated. However, for megathrust earthquakes, it is difficult to find the tsunami source that can provide accurate estimations of tsunami waveforms at every coastal site because of the complex spatiotemporal distribution of the source and the limitation of observation. To overcome this issue, we employ a site-specific source inversion approach that increases the estimation accuracy within a specific coastal site by applying appropriate weighting to the observational data in the inversion process.We applied our source inversion technique to the Tohoku tsunami and conducted inundation simulations using 5-m resolution digital elevation model data (DEM) for the coastal area around Miyako Bay and Sendai Bay. The estimated waveforms at the coastal wave gauges of these bays successfully agree with the observed waveforms. However, the simulations overestimate the inundation extent indicating the necessity to improve the inundation model. We find that the value of Manning's roughness coefficient should be modified from the often-used value of n = 0.025 to n = 0.033 to obtain proper results at both cities.In this presentation, the simulation results with several

  12. Accurate estimation of the RMS emittance from single current amplifier data

    SciTech Connect

    Stockli, Martin P.; Welton, R.F.; Keller, R.; Letchford, A.P.; Thomae, R.W.; Thomason, J.W.G.

    2002-05-31

    This paper presents the SCUBEEx rms emittance analysis, a self-consistent, unbiased elliptical exclusion method, which combines traditional data-reduction methods with statistical methods to obtain accurate estimates for the rms emittance. Rather than considering individual data, the method tracks the average current density outside a well-selected, variable boundary to separate the measured beam halo from the background. The average outside current density is assumed to be part of a uniform background and not part of the particle beam. Therefore the average outside current is subtracted from the data before evaluating the rms emittance within the boundary. As the boundary area is increased, the average outside current and the inside rms emittance form plateaus when all data containing part of the particle beam are inside the boundary. These plateaus mark the smallest acceptable exclusion boundary and provide unbiased estimates for the average background and the rms emittance. Small, trendless variations within the plateaus allow for determining the uncertainties of the estimates caused by variations of the measured background outside the smallest acceptable exclusion boundary. The robustness of the method is established with complementary variations of the exclusion boundary. This paper presents a detailed comparison between traditional data reduction methods and SCUBEEx by analyzing two complementary sets of emittance data obtained with a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and an ISIS H{sup -} ion source.

  13. Accurate estimation of motion blur parameters in noisy remote sensing image

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Xueyan; Wang, Lin; Shao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Huilin; Tao, Zhong

    2015-05-01

    The relative motion between remote sensing satellite sensor and objects is one of the most common reasons for remote sensing image degradation. It seriously weakens image data interpretation and information extraction. In practice, point spread function (PSF) should be estimated firstly for image restoration. Identifying motion blur direction and length accurately is very crucial for PSF and restoring image with precision. In general, the regular light-and-dark stripes in the spectrum can be employed to obtain the parameters by using Radon transform. However, serious noise existing in actual remote sensing images often causes the stripes unobvious. The parameters would be difficult to calculate and the error of the result relatively big. In this paper, an improved motion blur parameter identification method to noisy remote sensing image is proposed to solve this problem. The spectrum characteristic of noisy remote sensing image is analyzed firstly. An interactive image segmentation method based on graph theory called GrabCut is adopted to effectively extract the edge of the light center in the spectrum. Motion blur direction is estimated by applying Radon transform on the segmentation result. In order to reduce random error, a method based on whole column statistics is used during calculating blur length. Finally, Lucy-Richardson algorithm is applied to restore the remote sensing images of the moon after estimating blur parameters. The experimental results verify the effectiveness and robustness of our algorithm.

  14. Painfree and accurate Bayesian estimation of psychometric functions for (potentially) overdispersed data.

    PubMed

    Schütt, Heiko H; Harmeling, Stefan; Macke, Jakob H; Wichmann, Felix A

    2016-05-01

    The psychometric function describes how an experimental variable, such as stimulus strength, influences the behaviour of an observer. Estimation of psychometric functions from experimental data plays a central role in fields such as psychophysics, experimental psychology and in the behavioural neurosciences. Experimental data may exhibit substantial overdispersion, which may result from non-stationarity in the behaviour of observers. Here we extend the standard binomial model which is typically used for psychometric function estimation to a beta-binomial model. We show that the use of the beta-binomial model makes it possible to determine accurate credible intervals even in data which exhibit substantial overdispersion. This goes beyond classical measures for overdispersion-goodness-of-fit-which can detect overdispersion but provide no method to do correct inference for overdispersed data. We use Bayesian inference methods for estimating the posterior distribution of the parameters of the psychometric function. Unlike previous Bayesian psychometric inference methods our software implementation-psignifit 4-performs numerical integration of the posterior within automatically determined bounds. This avoids the use of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods typically requiring expert knowledge. Extensive numerical tests show the validity of the approach and we discuss implications of overdispersion for experimental design. A comprehensive MATLAB toolbox implementing the method is freely available; a python implementation providing the basic capabilities is also available. PMID:27013261

  15. Accurate estimation of human body orientation from RGB-D sensors.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wu; Zhang, Yongdong; Tang, Sheng; Tang, Jinhui; Hong, Richang; Li, Jintao

    2013-10-01

    Accurate estimation of human body orientation can significantly enhance the analysis of human behavior, which is a fundamental task in the field of computer vision. However, existing orientation estimation methods cannot handle the various body poses and appearances. In this paper, we propose an innovative RGB-D-based orientation estimation method to address these challenges. By utilizing the RGB-D information, which can be real time acquired by RGB-D sensors, our method is robust to cluttered environment, illumination change and partial occlusions. Specifically, efficient static and motion cue extraction methods are proposed based on the RGB-D superpixels to reduce the noise of depth data. Since it is hard to discriminate all the 360 (°) orientation using static cues or motion cues independently, we propose to utilize a dynamic Bayesian network system (DBNS) to effectively employ the complementary nature of both static and motion cues. In order to verify our proposed method, we build a RGB-D-based human body orientation dataset that covers a wide diversity of poses and appearances. Our intensive experimental evaluations on this dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. PMID:23893759

  16. Estimating Neuronal Ageing with Hidden Markov Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Bing; Pham, Tuan D.

    2011-06-01

    Neuronal degeneration is widely observed in normal ageing, meanwhile the neurode-generative disease like Alzheimer's disease effects neuronal degeneration in a faster way which is considered as faster ageing. Early intervention of such disease could benefit subjects with potentials of positive clinical outcome, therefore, early detection of disease related brain structural alteration is required. In this paper, we propose a computational approach for modelling the MRI-based structure alteration with ageing using hidden Markov model. The proposed hidden Markov model based brain structural model encodes intracortical tissue/fluid distribution using discrete wavelet transformation and vector quantization. Further, it captures gray matter volume loss, which is capable of reflecting subtle intracortical changes with ageing. Experiments were carried out on healthy subjects to validate its accuracy and robustness. Results have shown its ability of predicting the brain age with prediction error of 1.98 years without training data, which shows better result than other age predition methods.

  17. Quick and accurate estimation of the elastic constants using the minimum image method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretiakov, Konstantin V.; Wojciechowski, Krzysztof W.

    2015-04-01

    A method for determining the elastic properties using the minimum image method (MIM) is proposed and tested on a model system of particles interacting by the Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential. The elastic constants of the LJ system are determined in the thermodynamic limit, N → ∞, using the Monte Carlo (MC) method in the NVT and NPT ensembles. The simulation results show that when determining the elastic constants, the contribution of long-range interactions cannot be ignored, because that would lead to erroneous results. In addition, the simulations have revealed that the inclusion of further interactions of each particle with all its minimum image neighbors even in case of small systems leads to results which are very close to the values of elastic constants in the thermodynamic limit. This enables one for a quick and accurate estimation of the elastic constants using very small samples.

  18. A Simple yet Accurate Method for the Estimation of the Biovolume of Planktonic Microorganisms.

    PubMed

    Saccà, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Determining the biomass of microbial plankton is central to the study of fluxes of energy and materials in aquatic ecosystems. This is typically accomplished by applying proper volume-to-carbon conversion factors to group-specific abundances and biovolumes. A critical step in this approach is the accurate estimation of biovolume from two-dimensional (2D) data such as those available through conventional microscopy techniques or flow-through imaging systems. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method for the assessment of the biovolume of planktonic microorganisms, which works with any image analysis system allowing for the measurement of linear distances and the estimation of the cross sectional area of an object from a 2D digital image. The proposed method is based on Archimedes' principle about the relationship between the volume of a sphere and that of a cylinder in which the sphere is inscribed, plus a coefficient of 'unellipticity' introduced here. Validation and careful evaluation of the method are provided using a variety of approaches. The new method proved to be highly precise with all convex shapes characterised by approximate rotational symmetry, and combining it with an existing method specific for highly concave or branched shapes allows covering the great majority of cases with good reliability. Thanks to its accuracy, consistency, and low resources demand, the new method can conveniently be used in substitution of any extant method designed for convex shapes, and can readily be coupled with automated cell imaging technologies, including state-of-the-art flow-through imaging devices. PMID:27195667

  19. A Simple yet Accurate Method for the Estimation of the Biovolume of Planktonic Microorganisms

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Determining the biomass of microbial plankton is central to the study of fluxes of energy and materials in aquatic ecosystems. This is typically accomplished by applying proper volume-to-carbon conversion factors to group-specific abundances and biovolumes. A critical step in this approach is the accurate estimation of biovolume from two-dimensional (2D) data such as those available through conventional microscopy techniques or flow-through imaging systems. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method for the assessment of the biovolume of planktonic microorganisms, which works with any image analysis system allowing for the measurement of linear distances and the estimation of the cross sectional area of an object from a 2D digital image. The proposed method is based on Archimedes’ principle about the relationship between the volume of a sphere and that of a cylinder in which the sphere is inscribed, plus a coefficient of ‘unellipticity’ introduced here. Validation and careful evaluation of the method are provided using a variety of approaches. The new method proved to be highly precise with all convex shapes characterised by approximate rotational symmetry, and combining it with an existing method specific for highly concave or branched shapes allows covering the great majority of cases with good reliability. Thanks to its accuracy, consistency, and low resources demand, the new method can conveniently be used in substitution of any extant method designed for convex shapes, and can readily be coupled with automated cell imaging technologies, including state-of-the-art flow-through imaging devices. PMID:27195667

  20. Accurate Estimation of the Fine Layering Effect on the Wave Propagation in the Carbonate Rocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchaala, F.; Ali, M. Y.

    2014-12-01

    The attenuation caused to the seismic wave during its propagation can be mainly divided into two parts, the scattering and the intrinsic attenuation. The scattering is an elastic redistribution of the energy due to the medium heterogeneities. However the intrinsic attenuation is an inelastic phenomenon, mainly due to the fluid-grain friction during the wave passage. The intrinsic attenuation is directly related to the physical characteristics of the medium, so this parameter is very can be used for media characterization and fluid detection, which is beneficial for the oil and gas industry. The intrinsic attenuation is estimated by subtracting the scattering from the total attenuation, therefore the accuracy of the intrinsic attenuation is directly dependent on the accuracy of the total attenuation and the scattering. The total attenuation can be estimated from the recorded waves, by using in-situ methods as the spectral ratio and frequency shift methods. The scattering is estimated by assuming the heterogeneities as a succession of stacked layers, each layer is characterized by a single density and velocity. The accuracy of the scattering is strongly dependent on the layer thicknesses, especially in the case of the media composed of carbonate rocks, such media are known for their strong heterogeneity. Previous studies gave some assumptions for the choice of the layer thickness, but they showed some limitations especially in the case of carbonate rocks. In this study we established a relationship between the layer thicknesses and the frequency of the propagation, after certain mathematical development of the Generalized O'Doherty-Anstey formula. We validated this relationship through some synthetic tests and real data provided from a VSP carried out over an onshore oilfield in the emirate of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, primarily composed of carbonate rocks. The results showed the utility of our relationship for an accurate estimation of the scattering

  1. Accurate biopsy-needle depth estimation in limited-angle tomography using multi-view geometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Sommen, Fons; Zinger, Sveta; de With, Peter H. N.

    2016-03-01

    Recently, compressed-sensing based algorithms have enabled volume reconstruction from projection images acquired over a relatively small angle (θ < 20°). These methods enable accurate depth estimation of surgical tools with respect to anatomical structures. However, they are computationally expensive and time consuming, rendering them unattractive for image-guided interventions. We propose an alternative approach for depth estimation of biopsy needles during image-guided interventions, in which we split the problem into two parts and solve them independently: needle-depth estimation and volume reconstruction. The complete proposed system consists of the previous two steps, preceded by needle extraction. First, we detect the biopsy needle in the projection images and remove it by interpolation. Next, we exploit epipolar geometry to find point-to-point correspondences in the projection images to triangulate the 3D position of the needle in the volume. Finally, we use the interpolated projection images to reconstruct the local anatomical structures and indicate the position of the needle within this volume. For validation of the algorithm, we have recorded a full CT scan of a phantom with an inserted biopsy needle. The performance of our approach ranges from a median error of 2.94 mm for an distributed viewing angle of 1° down to an error of 0.30 mm for an angle larger than 10°. Based on the results of this initial phantom study, we conclude that multi-view geometry offers an attractive alternative to time-consuming iterative methods for the depth estimation of surgical tools during C-arm-based image-guided interventions.

  2. [Problems associated with chronological age estimation of children exploited in child pornography production].

    PubMed

    Bednarek, Jarosław

    2006-01-01

    Chronological age assessment of young persons featuring in pornographic pictures and videos is crucial to prove a violation of law. The paper discusses possibilities of and difficulties inherent in age estimation in cases of production and distribution of child pornography. The presented problems were divided into technical and individual development-associated issues. Technical difficulties included lack of a reference system for biological features reconstruction, poor quality and resolution of pictures or movies, pictures retouching and photomontage. The author stressed that biological hindrances in age assessment were the consequences of interpersonal variation of developmental patterns, namely overlapping of ranges typical for feature values at particular ages and biological variations between different human populations. The described problems can render age estimation impossible or far from precise. Developing more accurate methods of estimating age from pictures and videos requires the collaboration of specialists in the field of auxology, anthropology, pediatrics, as well as experts in photography and video techniques. PMID:17131758

  3. Impairment of age estimation from faces in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Moyse, Evelyne; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric; Brédart, Serge

    2015-01-01

    A prerequisite for any function in social cognition is the perception and processing of social cues. Age estimation is a skill that is used in everyday life and is fundamental in social interactions. This study evaluated whether facial age estimation is impaired in patients with mild to moderate Alzheimer's disease (AD). The current age of faces is known to have an impact on age estimation, and therefore stimuli belonging to different age groups (young, middle-aged, and older adults' faces) were used. As expected, an impairment of age estimation from faces was observed in mild to moderate AD patients. However, the profile of impairment depended on the age of faces and stage of the disease. Mild AD patients presented difficulties mainly in assessing the age of middle-aged adults. In moderate disease stage, these difficulties also affected the age estimation of young adult faces. Interestingly, AD patients remained relatively good at estimating the age of older adults' faces, compared to healthy controls. PMID:25589725

  4. Can student health professionals accurately estimate alcohol content in commonly occurring drinks?

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, Julia; Searle, Emma

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Correct identification of alcohol as a contributor to, or comorbidity of, many psychiatric diseases requires health professionals to be competent and confident to take an accurate alcohol history. Being able to estimate (or calculate) the alcohol content in commonly consumed drinks is a prerequisite for quantifying levels of alcohol consumption. The aim of this study was to assess this ability in medical and nursing students. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 891 medical and nursing students across different years of training was conducted. Students were asked the alcohol content of 10 different alcoholic drinks by seeing a slide of the drink (with picture, volume and percentage of alcohol by volume) for 30 s. Results: Overall, the mean number of correctly estimated drinks (out of the 10 tested) was 2.4, increasing to just over 3 if a 10% margin of error was used. Wine and premium strength beers were underestimated by over 50% of students. Those who drank alcohol themselves, or who were further on in their clinical training, did better on the task, but overall the levels remained low. Conclusions: Knowledge of, or the ability to work out, the alcohol content of commonly consumed drinks is poor, and further research is needed to understand the reasons for this and the impact this may have on the likelihood to undertake screening or initiate treatment. PMID:27536344

  5. Ultrasound Fetal Weight Estimation: How Accurate Are We Now Under Emergency Conditions?

    PubMed

    Dimassi, Kaouther; Douik, Fatma; Ajroudi, Mariem; Triki, Amel; Gara, Mohamed Faouzi

    2015-10-01

    The primary aim of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of sonographic estimation of fetal weight when performed at due date by first-line sonographers. This was a prospective study including 500 singleton pregnancies. Ultrasound examinations were performed by residents on delivery day. Estimated fetal weights (EFWs) were calculated and compared with the corresponding birth weights. The median absolute difference between EFW and birth weight was 200 g (100-330). This difference was within ±10% in 75.2% of the cases. The median absolute percentage error was 5.53% (2.70%-10.03%). Linear regression analysis revealed a good correlation between EFW and birth weight (r = 0.79, p < 0.0001). According to Bland-Altman analysis, bias was -85.06 g (95% limits of agreement: -663.33 to 494.21). In conclusion, EFWs calculated by residents were as accurate as those calculated by experienced sonographers. Nevertheless, predictive performance remains limited, with a low sensitivity in the diagnosis of macrosomia. PMID:26164286

  6. Ocean Lidar Measurements of Beam Attenuation and a Roadmap to Accurate Phytoplankton Biomass Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yongxiang; Behrenfeld, Mike; Hostetler, Chris; Pelon, Jacques; Trepte, Charles; Hair, John; Slade, Wayne; Cetinic, Ivona; Vaughan, Mark; Lu, Xiaomei; Zhai, Pengwang; Weimer, Carl; Winker, David; Verhappen, Carolus C.; Butler, Carolyn; Liu, Zhaoyan; Hunt, Bill; Omar, Ali; Rodier, Sharon; Lifermann, Anne; Josset, Damien; Hou, Weilin; MacDonnell, David; Rhew, Ray

    2016-06-01

    Beam attenuation coefficient, c, provides an important optical index of plankton standing stocks, such as phytoplankton biomass and total particulate carbon concentration. Unfortunately, c has proven difficult to quantify through remote sensing. Here, we introduce an innovative approach for estimating c using lidar depolarization measurements and diffuse attenuation coefficients from ocean color products or lidar measurements of Brillouin scattering. The new approach is based on a theoretical formula established from Monte Carlo simulations that links the depolarization ratio of sea water to the ratio of diffuse attenuation Kd and beam attenuation C (i.e., a multiple scattering factor). On July 17, 2014, the CALIPSO satellite was tilted 30° off-nadir for one nighttime orbit in order to minimize ocean surface backscatter and demonstrate the lidar ocean subsurface measurement concept from space. Depolarization ratios of ocean subsurface backscatter are measured accurately. Beam attenuation coefficients computed from the depolarization ratio measurements compare well with empirical estimates from ocean color measurements. We further verify the beam attenuation coefficient retrievals using aircraft-based high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) data that are collocated with in-water optical measurements.

  7. Age-related changes in multifinger synergies in accurate moment of force production tasks

    PubMed Central

    Olafsdottir, Halla; Zhang, Wei; Zatsiorsky, Vladimir M.; Latash, Mark L.

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this investigation was to document and quantify age-related differences in the coordination of fingers during a task that required production of an accurate time profile of the total moment of force by the four fingers of a hand. We hypothesized that elderly subjects would show a decreased ability to stabilize a time profile of the total moment of force, leading to larger indexes of moment variability compared with young subjects. The subjects followed a trapezoidal template on a computer screen by producing a time profile of the total moment of force while pressing down on force sensors with the four fingers of the right (dominant) hand. To quantify synergies, we used the framework of the uncontrolled manifold hypothesis. The elderly subjects produced larger total force, larger variance of both total force and total moment of force, and larger involvement of fingers that produced moment of force against the required moment direction (antagonist moment). This was particularly prominent during supination efforts. Young subjects showed covariation of commands to fingers across trials that stabilized the moment of total force (moment-stabilizing synergy), while elderly subjects failed to do so. Both subject groups showed similar indexes of covariation of commands to the fingers that stabilized the time profile of the total force. The lack of moment-stabilizing synergies may be causally related to the documented impairment of hand function with age. PMID:17204576

  8. Age at death estimation from bone histology in Malaysian males.

    PubMed

    Nor, Faridah Mohd; Pastor, Robert F; Schutkowski, Holger

    2014-10-01

    Estimation of age from microscopic examination of human bone utilizes bone remodeling. This allows 2 regression equation to be determined in a specific population based on the variation in osteon turnover in different populations. The aim of this study was to provide age estimation for Malaysian males. Ground undecalcified cross sections were prepared from long limb bones of 50 deceased males aged between 21 and 78 years. Ten microstructural parameters were measured and subjected to multivariate regression analysis. Results showed that osteon count had the highest correlation with age (R = 0.43), and age was estimated to be within 10.94 years of the true value in 98% of males. Cross validation of the equation on 50 individuals showed close correspondence of true ages with estimated ages. Further studies are needed to validate and expand these results. PMID:24189643

  9. Discrete state model and accurate estimation of loop entropy of RNA secondary structures.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jian; Lin, Ming; Chen, Rong; Wang, Wei; Liang, Jie

    2008-03-28

    Conformational entropy makes important contribution to the stability and folding of RNA molecule, but it is challenging to either measure or compute conformational entropy associated with long loops. We develop optimized discrete k-state models of RNA backbone based on known RNA structures for computing entropy of loops, which are modeled as self-avoiding walks. To estimate entropy of hairpin, bulge, internal loop, and multibranch loop of long length (up to 50), we develop an efficient sampling method based on the sequential Monte Carlo principle. Our method considers excluded volume effect. It is general and can be applied to calculating entropy of loops with longer length and arbitrary complexity. For loops of short length, our results are in good agreement with a recent theoretical model and experimental measurement. For long loops, our estimated entropy of hairpin loops is in excellent agreement with the Jacobson-Stockmayer extrapolation model. However, for bulge loops and more complex secondary structures such as internal and multibranch loops, we find that the Jacobson-Stockmayer extrapolation model has large errors. Based on estimated entropy, we have developed empirical formulae for accurate calculation of entropy of long loops in different secondary structures. Our study on the effect of asymmetric size of loops suggest that loop entropy of internal loops is largely determined by the total loop length, and is only marginally affected by the asymmetric size of the two loops. Our finding suggests that the significant asymmetric effects of loop length in internal loops measured by experiments are likely to be partially enthalpic. Our method can be applied to develop improved energy parameters important for studying RNA stability and folding, and for predicting RNA secondary and tertiary structures. The discrete model and the program used to calculate loop entropy can be downloaded at http://gila.bioengr.uic.edu/resources/RNA.html. PMID:18376982

  10. Age estimation standards for a Western Australian population using the coronal pulp cavity index.

    PubMed

    Karkhanis, Shalmira; Mack, Peter; Franklin, Daniel

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is a vital aspect in creating a biological profile and aids investigators by narrowing down potentially matching identities from the available pool. In addition to routine casework, in the present global political scenario, age estimation in living individuals is required in cases of refugees, asylum seekers, human trafficking and to ascertain age of criminal responsibility. Thus robust methods that are simple, non-invasive and ethically viable are required. The aim of the present study is, therefore, to test the reliability and applicability of the coronal pulp cavity index method, for the purpose of developing age estimation standards for an adult Western Australian population. A total of 450 orthopantomograms (220 females and 230 males) of Australian individuals were analyzed. Crown and coronal pulp chamber heights were measured in the mandibular left and right premolars, and the first and second molars. These measurements were then used to calculate the tooth coronal index. Data was analyzed using paired sample t-tests to assess bilateral asymmetry followed by simple linear and multiple regressions to develop age estimation models. The most accurate age estimation based on simple linear regression model was with mandibular right first molar (SEE ±8.271 years). Multiple regression models improved age prediction accuracy considerably and the most accurate model was with bilateral first and second molars (SEE ±6.692 years). This study represents the first investigation of this method in a Western Australian population and our results indicate that the method is suitable for forensic application. PMID:23664550

  11. Evaluating the Reliability of Three Different Dental Age Estimation Methods in Visakhapatnam Children

    PubMed Central

    Vabbalareddy, Raja Sekhar; V Vanga, Narasimha Rao

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT% Dental age is important for treatment planning in the specialities of pedodontics and orthodontics. Although, Demirjian's method was considered standard for dental age estimation, it may not be reliable for all population. Aim: The goal of the study was to evaluate the reliability of Demir-jian's, Haavikko's and Willems method of dental age estimation methods in Visakhapatnam (Andhra Pradesh, India) children. Study design: One hundred and two children of 6 to 14 years old who underwent panaromic digital radiography for routine diagnostic purposes were included. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian's, Haavikko's and Willems methods and compared with chronologic age for each patient. Results: Dental age showed a significant overestimation by Demirjian's method with a mean difference of 0.55 year and underestimation by Haavikko's and Willems methods with a mean difference of 1.95 and 0.20 year respectively when compared with chronologic age. The mean difference between dental age and chronologic age was not significant in Willems method which shows a close relation between dental and chronologic ages. Conclusion: The dental age estimation by Willems method is found to be more accurate than Demirjian's and Haavikko's methods in Visakhapatnam children. How to cite this article: Patnana AK, Vabbalareddy RS, Vanga NRV. Evaluating the Reliability of Three Different Dental Age Estimation Methods in Visakhapatnam Children. Int J Clin Pediatr Dent 2014;7(3):186-191. PMID:25709299

  12. A revised burial dose estimation procedure for optical dating of youngand modern-age sediments

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Arnold, L.J.; Roberts, R.G.; Galbraith, R.F.; DeLong, S.B.

    2009-01-01

    The presence of genuinely zero-age or near-zero-age grains in modern-age and very young samples poses a problem for many existing burial dose estimation procedures used in optical (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL) dating. This difficulty currently necessitates consideration of relatively simplistic and statistically inferior age models. In this study, we investigate the potential for using modified versions of the statistical age models of Galbraith et??al. [Galbraith, R.F., Roberts, R.G., Laslett, G.M., Yoshida, H., Olley, J.M., 1999. Optical dating of single and multiple grains of quartz from Jinmium rock shelter, northern Australia: Part I, experimental design and statistical models. Archaeometry 41, 339-364.] to provide reliable equivalent dose (De) estimates for young and modern-age samples that display negative, zero or near-zero De estimates. For this purpose, we have revised the original versions of the central and minimum age models, which are based on log-transformed De values, so that they can be applied to un-logged De estimates and their associated absolute standard errors. The suitability of these 'un-logged' age models is tested using a series of known-age fluvial samples deposited within two arroyo systems from the American Southwest. The un-logged age models provide accurate burial doses and final OSL ages for roughly three-quarters of the total number of samples considered in this study. Sensitivity tests reveal that the un-logged versions of the central and minimum age models are capable of producing accurate burial dose estimates for modern-age and very young (<350??yr) fluvial samples that contain (i) more than 20% of well-bleached grains in their De distributions, or (ii) smaller sub-populations of well-bleached grains for which the De values are known with high precision. Our results indicate that the original (log-transformed) versions of the central and minimum age models are still preferable for most routine dating applications

  13. Age estimation based on Kvaal's technique using digital panoramic radiographs

    PubMed Central

    Mittal, Samta; Nagendrareddy, Suma Gundareddy; Sharma, Manisha Lakhanpal; Agnihotri, Poornapragna; Chaudhary, Sunil; Dhillon, Manu

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is important for administrative and ethical reasons and also because of legal consequences. Dental pulp undergoes regression in size with increasing age due to secondary dentin deposition and can be used as a parameter of age estimation even beyond 25 years of age. Kvaal et al. developed a method for chronological age estimation based on the pulp size using periapical dental radiographs. There is a need for testing this method of age estimation in the Indian population using simple tools like digital imaging on living individuals not requiring extraction of teeth. Aims and Objectives: Estimation of the chronological age of subjects by Kvaal's method using digital panoramic radiographs and also testing the validity of regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. Materials and Methods: The study sample included a total of 152 subjects in the age group of 14-60 years. Measurements were performed on the standardized digital panoramic radiographs based on Kvaal's method. Different regression formulae were derived and the age was assessed. The assessed age was then correlated to the actual age of the patient using Student's t-test. Results: No significant difference between the mean of the chronological age and the estimated age was observed. However, the values of the mean age estimated by using regression equations as given previously in the study of Kvaal et al. significantly underestimated the chronological age in the present study sample. Conclusion: The results of the study give an inference for the feasibility of this technique by calculation of regression equations on digital panoramic radiographs. However, it negates the applicability of same regression equations as given by Kvaal et al. on the study population.

  14. Skeletal age estimation in a contemporary Western Australian population using the Tanner-Whitehouse method.

    PubMed

    Maggio, Ariane; Flavel, Ambika; Hart, Rob; Franklin, Daniel

    2016-06-01

    Various age estimation techniques have been utilised in Australia to evaluate the age of individuals who do not have documentation to determine legal majority/culpability. These age estimation techniques rely on the assessment of skeletal development as visualised in radiographs, CT scans, MRI or ultrasound modalities, and subsequent comparison to reference standards. These standards are not always population specific and are thus known to be less accurate when applied outside of the original reference sample, leading to potential ethical implications. Therefore, the present study aims to: (i) explore the variation in developmental trajectories between the established Tanner-Whitehouse (TW) age estimation standards and a Western Australian population; and (ii) develop specific hand-wrist age estimation standards for the latter population. The present study examines digital anterior-posterior hand-wrist radiographs of 360 individuals 0 to 24.9 years of age, equally represented by sex. Each radiograph was assessed using the RUS, Carpal and 20-bone methods of Tanner et al. The standard error of the estimate (SEE) was calculated for each method (range: ♀ SEE ±0.4-11.5 years; ♂ SEE ±0.9-10.1 years). The most accurate method was TW3 RUS for females and the TW2 Carpal system for males. The 50th centile skeletal maturity scores for each year age group were plotted against average chronological age to produce polynomial regression standards with a demonstrated accuracy of (♀ SEE ±0.09-3.46 years; ♂ SEE ±0.02-3.42 years) for females and males, respectively. The standards presented here can be used in future forensic investigations that require age estimation of hand-wrist bones in a Western Australian population, however, they are not appropriate for establishing age of majority (18 years), as skeletal maturity was attained on average earlier than 15 years of age in both sexes for all three systems examined. PMID:27080619

  15. Re-Evaluating Neonatal-Age Models for Ungulates: Does Model Choice Affect Survival Estimates?

    PubMed Central

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  16. Re-evaluating neonatal-age models for ungulates: Does model choice affect survival estimates?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grovenburg, Troy W.; Monteith, Kevin L.; Jacques, Christopher N.; Klaver, Robert W.; DePerno, Christopher S.; Brinkman, Todd J.; Monteith, Kyle B.; Gilbert, Sophie L.; Smith, Joshua B.; Bleich, Vernon C.; Swanson, Christopher C.; Jenks, Jonathan A.

    2014-01-01

    New-hoof growth is regarded as the most reliable metric for predicting age of newborn ungulates, but variation in estimated age among hoof-growth equations that have been developed may affect estimates of survival in staggered-entry models. We used known-age newborns to evaluate variation in age estimates among existing hoof-growth equations and to determine the consequences of that variation on survival estimates. During 2001–2009, we captured and radiocollared 174 newborn (≤24-hrs old) ungulates: 76 white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) in Minnesota and South Dakota, 61 mule deer (O. hemionus) in California, and 37 pronghorn (Antilocapra americana) in South Dakota. Estimated age of known-age newborns differed among hoof-growth models and varied by >15 days for white-tailed deer, >20 days for mule deer, and >10 days for pronghorn. Accuracy (i.e., the proportion of neonates assigned to the correct age) in aging newborns using published equations ranged from 0.0% to 39.4% in white-tailed deer, 0.0% to 3.3% in mule deer, and was 0.0% for pronghorns. Results of survival modeling indicated that variability in estimates of age-at-capture affected short-term estimates of survival (i.e., 30 days) for white-tailed deer and mule deer, and survival estimates over a longer time frame (i.e., 120 days) for mule deer. Conversely, survival estimates for pronghorn were not affected by estimates of age. Our analyses indicate that modeling survival in daily intervals is too fine a temporal scale when age-at-capture is unknown given the potential inaccuracies among equations used to estimate age of neonates. Instead, weekly survival intervals are more appropriate because most models accurately predicted ages within 1 week of the known age. Variation among results of neonatal-age models on short- and long-term estimates of survival for known-age young emphasizes the importance of selecting an appropriate hoof-growth equation and appropriately defining intervals (i.e., weekly

  17. Dental Age Estimation Helps Create a New Identity.

    PubMed

    De Angelis, Danilo; Gibelli, Daniele; Fabbri, Paolo; Cattaneo, Cristina

    2015-09-01

    Age estimation involves the reconstruction of age by biological parameters such as skeletal and dental development in minors, or reduction of pulp chamber in adults, to gain indications concerning the chronological age of the person. In most cases, it is needed in forensic scenarios to verify if the supposed age of an individual is correct; in exceptional cases, age estimation is instead required by judicial authorities to create a new identity usually in persons who do not remember who they are.This article aims at reporting the case of J. who was found in 2005 with signs of amnesia because he did not remember his name and age. After several unsuccessful attempts at identifying him, the judicial authority decided to assign a new identity, which was to be constructed according to the real biological data of the individual. The help of a forensic pathologist and a forensic odontologist was then requested, and age estimation was reached by applying methods for adults based on the physiological reduction of pulp chamber. Dental age estimation yielded a final result of approximately 31 years, which was the new age assigned to the person.This article shows a peculiar application of dental age estimation, which can be used not only to ascertain or deny supposed age, but is sometimes needed to create a new identity. PMID:26079404

  18. Accurate Visual Heading Estimation at High Rotation Rate Without Oculomotor or Static-Depth Cues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stone, Leland S.; Perrone, John A.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    It has been claimed that either oculomotor or static depth cues provide the signals about self-rotation necessary approx.-1 deg/s. We tested this hypothesis by simulating self-motion along a curved path with the eyes fixed in the head (plus or minus 16 deg/s of rotation). Curvilinear motion offers two advantages: 1) heading remains constant in retinotopic coordinates, and 2) there is no visual-oculomotor conflict (both actual and simulated eye position remain stationary). We simulated 400 ms of rotation combined with 16 m/s of translation at fixed angles with respect to gaze towards two vertical planes of random dots initially 12 and 24 m away, with a field of view of 45 degrees. Four subjects were asked to fixate a central cross and to respond whether they were translating to the left or right of straight-ahead gaze. From the psychometric curves, heading bias (mean) and precision (semi-interquartile) were derived. The mean bias over 2-5 runs was 3.0, 4.0, -2.0, -0.4 deg for the first author and three naive subjects, respectively (positive indicating towards the rotation direction). The mean precision was 2.0, 1.9, 3.1, 1.6 deg. respectively. The ability of observers to make relatively accurate and precise heading judgments, despite the large rotational flow component, refutes the view that extra-flow-field information is necessary for human visual heading estimation at high rotation rates. Our results support models that process combined translational/rotational flow to estimate heading, but should not be construed to suggest that other cues do not play an important role when they are available to the observer.

  19. Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

    PubMed Central

    Verochana, Karune; Prapayasatok, Sangsom; Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May; Korwanich, Narumanas

    2016-01-01

    Purpose This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, P≤0.01). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ±1 year, while 75% fell within a range of error of ±2 years. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. PMID:27051633

  20. Listener estimations of talker age: A meta-analysis of the literature.

    PubMed

    Hunter, Eric J; Ferguson, Sarah Hargus; Newman, Catherine Anne

    2016-10-01

    Numerous studies, most of them cross-sectional studies using one sample per talker, have demonstrated that listeners make relatively accurate age judgments from hearing talkers' voices. The current study analyzed the results of several such direct age estimation studies to characterize better the perception of talker age over a larger number of individuals. A review of the direct age estimation literature was performed. Data sets from seven papers were reconstituted, and an analysis of the combined data (meta-analysis) including 530 data points was conducted. The reconstituted and combined data included talkers aged 10-90. Listeners appeared to overestimate age when talkers were younger and to underestimate it when talkers were older. PMID:26079468

  1. Accuracy of two dental and one skeletal age estimation methods in 6-16 year old Gujarati children

    PubMed Central

    Patel, Purv S.; Chaudhary, Anjani Ramachandra; Dudhia, Bhavin B.; Bhatia, Parul V.; Soni, Naresh C.; Jani, Yesha V.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is of immense importance not only for personal identification but also for treatment planning in medicine and dentistry. Chronologic age conveys only a rough approximation of the maturational status of a person, hence dental and skeletal ages have been explored as maturity indicators since decades. The tooth maturation provides a valuable indicator of dental age and serves as a better index of the maturation of a child as compared to other maturity indicators. Aims and Objectives: To test the applicability of Demirjian's and Willem's dental age assessment methods as well as Greulich and Pyle skeletal age assessment method in children residing in Gandhinagar district. Materials and Methods: The study consisted of randomly selected 180 subjects (90 males and 90 females) ranging from 6 to 16 years age and residing in Gandhinagar district. Dental age estimation was performed from radiovisuograph (RVG) images of mandibular teeth of left quadrant by both Demirjian's and Willem's methods. Skeletal age estimation was done from right hand wrist radiograph by Greulich and Pyle method. The differences between the chronological age and the estimated dental and skeletal ages were statistically tested using paired ‘t’ test. The correlation between chronological age, dental and skeletal age estimation methods was confirmed statistically by Pearson's correlation. The reproducibility of the estimations was statistically tested using the Pearson's Chi-square test. Results: Amongst the age estimation methods used in this study, the Willem's dental age estimation method proved to be the most accurate and consistent. Conclusion: Although various age estimation methods do exist, the results are varied in different populations due to ethnic differences. However, till new tables are formulated, the Willem's method (Modified Demirjian method) can be accurately applied to estimate chronological age for the population residing in Gandhinagar district. PMID

  2. Analysis of age-at-death estimation through the use of pubic symphyseal data.

    PubMed

    Kimmerle, Erin H; Konigsberg, Lyle W; Jantz, Richard L; Baraybar, Jose Pablo

    2008-05-01

    The question of whether age parameters derived from an American population will reliably estimate age-at-death for East European skeletal populations is important since the ability to accurately estimate an individual's age-at-death hinges on what standard is used. A reference sample of identified individuals with known ages-at-death from the regions of the Former Yugoslavia (n = 861) is used to determine the age structure of victims and serves as the prior in the Bayesian analysis. Pubic symphyseal data in the manners of Todd (Am J Phys Anthropol, 3 [1920], 285; Am J Phys Anthropol, 4 [1921], 1) and Suchey-Brooks (Am J Phys Anthropol, 80 [1986], 167) were collected for n = 296 Balkan males and females and for n = 2078 American males and females. An analysis of deviance is calculated using an improvement chi-square to test for population variation in the aging processes of American and East European populations using proportional odds probit regression. When males and females are treated separately, there is a significant association among females and the population (df = 1, chi-square likelihood ratio = 15.071, p = 0.001). New age estimates for Balkan populations are provided and are based on the calculated age distribution from the Gompertz-Makeham hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density regions for each symphyseal phase are provided. PMID:18471198

  3. Calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves from harvest age ratios

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Miller, David A.; Otis, David L.

    2010-01-01

    We examined results from the first national-scale effort to estimate mourning dove (Zenaida macroura) age ratios and developed a simple, efficient, and generalizable methodology for calibrating estimates. Our method predicted age classes of unknown-age wings based on backward projection of molt distributions from fall harvest collections to preseason banding. We estimated 1) the proportion of late-molt individuals in each age class, and 2) the molt rates of juvenile and adult birds. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated our estimator was minimally biased. We estimated model parameters using 96,811 wings collected from hunters and 42,189 birds banded during preseason from 68 collection blocks in 22 states during the 2005–2007 hunting seasons. We also used estimates to derive a correction factor, based on latitude and longitude of samples, which can be applied to future surveys. We estimated differential vulnerability of age classes to harvest using data from banded birds and applied that to harvest age ratios to estimate population age ratios. Average, uncorrected age ratio of known-age wings for states that allow hunting was 2.25 (SD 0.85) juveniles:adult, and average, corrected ratio was 1.91 (SD 0.68), as determined from harvest age ratios from an independent sample of 41,084 wings collected from random hunters in 2007 and 2008. We used an independent estimate of differential vulnerability to adjust corrected harvest age ratios and estimated the average population age ratio as 1.45 (SD 0.52), a direct measure of recruitment rates. Average annual recruitment rates were highest east of the Mississippi River and in the northwestern United States, with lower rates between. Our results demonstrate a robust methodology for calibrating recruitment estimates for mourning doves and represent the first large-scale estimates of recruitment for the species. Our methods can be used by managers to correct future harvest survey data to generate recruitment estimates for use in

  4. Accuracy of Four Dental Age Estimation Methods in Southern Indian Children

    PubMed Central

    Sanghvi, Praveen; Perumalla, Kiran Kumar; Srinivasaraju, D.; Srinivas, Jami; Kalyan, U. Siva; Rasool, SK. Md. Iftekhar

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: For various forensic investigations of both living and dead individuals, the knowledge of the actual age or date of birth of the subject is of utmost importance. In recent years, age estimation has gained importance for a variety of reasons, including identifying criminal and legal responsibility, and for many other social events such as birth certificate, marriage, beginning a job, joining the army and retirement. Developing teeth are used to assess maturity and estimate age in number of disciplines; however the accuracy of different methods has not been assessed systematically. The aim of this study was to determine the accuracy of four dental age estimation methods. Materials and Methods: Digital Orthopantomographs (OPGS) of South Indian children between the ages of 6 and 16 y who visited the department of Department of Oral medicine and Radiology of GITAM Dental College, Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, India with similar ethnic origin were assessed. Dental age was calculated using Demirjian, Willems, Nolla, and adopted Haavikko methods and the difference between estimated dental age and chronological age were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: An overestimation of the dental age was observed by using Demirjian and Nolla methods (0.1±1.63, 0.47±0.83 years in total sample respectively) and an underestimation of dental age was observed by using Willems and Haavikko methods (-0.4±1.53, -2.9±1.41 years respectively in total sample). Conclusion: Nolla’s method was more accurate in estimating dental age compared to other methods. Moreover, all the four methods were found to be reliable in estimating age of individuals of unknown chronological age in South Indian children. PMID:25738008

  5. Precision of two methods for estimating age from burbot otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Edwards, W.H.; Stapanian, M.A.; Stoneman, A.T.

    2011-01-01

    Lower reproductive success and older age structure are associated with many burbot (Lota lota L.) populations that are declining or of conservation concern. Therefore, reliable methods for estimating the age of burbot are critical for effective assessment and management. In Lake Erie, burbot populations have declined in recent years due to the combined effects of an aging population (&xmacr; = 10 years in 2007) and extremely low recruitment since 2002. We examined otoliths from burbot (N = 91) collected in Lake Erie in 2007 and compared the estimates of burbot age by two agers, each using two established methods (cracked-and-burned and thin-section) of estimating ages from burbot otoliths. One ager was experienced at estimating age from otoliths, the other was a novice. Agreement (precision) between the two agers was higher for the thin-section method, particularly at ages 6–11 years, based on linear regression analyses and 95% confidence intervals. As expected, precision between the two methods was higher for the more experienced ager. Both agers reported that the thin sections offered clearer views of the annuli, particularly near the margins on otoliths from burbot ages ≥8. Slides for the thin sections required some costly equipment and more than 2 days to prepare. In contrast, preparing the cracked-and-burned samples was comparatively inexpensive and quick. We suggest use of the thin-section method for estimating the age structure of older burbot populations.

  6. An evaluation of agreement between pectoral spines and otoliths for estimating ages of catfishes

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Olive, J.A.; Schramm, Harold, Jr.; Gerard, Patrick D.; Irwin, E.

    2011-01-01

    Otoliths have been shown to provide more accurate ages than pectoral spine sections for several catfish populations; but sampling otoliths requires euthanizing the specimen, whereas spines can be sampled non-lethally. To evaluate whether, and under what conditions, spines provide the same or similar age estimates as otoliths, we examined data sets of individual fish aged from pectoral spines and otoliths for six blue catfish Ictalurus furcatus populations (n=420), 14 channel catfish Ictalurus punctatus populations (n=997), and 10 flathead catfish Pylodictus olivaris populations (n=947) from lotic and lentic waters throughout the central and eastern U.S. Logistic regression determined that agreement between ages estimated from otoliths and spines was consistently related to age, but inconsistently related to growth rate. When modeled at mean growth rate, we found at least 80% probability of no difference in spine- and otolith-assigned ages up to ages 4 and 5 for blue and channel catfish, respectively. For flathead catfish, an 80% probability of agreement between spine- and otolith-assigned ages did not occur at any age due to high incidence of differences in assigned ages even for age-1 fish. Logistic regression models predicted at least 80% probability that spine and otolith ages differed by ≤1 year up to ages 13, 16, and 9 for blue, channel, and flathead catfish, respectively. Age-bias assessment found mean spine-assigned age differed by less than 1 year from otolith-assigned age up to ages 19, 9, and 17 for blue catfish, channel catfish, and flathead catfish, respectively. These results can be used to help guide decisions about which structure is most appropriate for estimating catfish ages for particular populations and management objectives.

  7. Egg flotation estimates nest age for Pacific and Red-throated Loons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Rizzolo, D.J.; Schmutz, J.A.

    2007-01-01

    We used Pacific Loon (Gavia pacifica) and Red-throated Loon (G. stellata) nests with known ages to gauge the efficacy of egg flotation for determining nest age in coastal Alaska. Egg flotation accurately estimated nest age for both species; the mean ?? 1SD difference between known age and age determined with egg flotation was - 0.05 ?? 2.00 d and -0.02 ?? 1.63 d for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, respectively. Day of nest initiation did not influence the relationship between known nest age and nest age estimated with egg flotation, indicating incubation period was not shortened in nests initiated later in the season. Additionally, we found no difference in the ability of egg flotation to estimate nest age between two widely dispersed study sites for Pacific Loons, and only a small difference between two of three widely dispersed study sites for Red-throated Loons. Thus, our described relationships between egg flotation categories and nest age should be broadly applicable for these holarctic species. We conclude that for Pacific and Red-throated Loons, egg flotation is a useful technique for determining nest age in the field to better monitor nest fate, and to quantify nest age effects on nest daily survival rate.

  8. The challenges of accurately estimating time of long bone injury in children.

    PubMed

    Pickett, Tracy A

    2015-07-01

    The ability to determine the time an injury occurred can be of crucial significance in forensic medicine and holds special relevance to the investigation of child abuse. However, dating paediatric long bone injury, including fractures, is nuanced by complexities specific to the paediatric population. These challenges include the ability to identify bone injury in a growing or only partially-calcified skeleton, different injury patterns seen within the spectrum of the paediatric population, the effects of bone growth on healing as a separate entity from injury, differential healing rates seen at different ages, and the relative scarcity of information regarding healing rates in children, especially the very young. The challenges posed by these factors are compounded by a lack of consistency in defining and categorizing healing parameters. This paper sets out the primary limitations of existing knowledge regarding estimating timing of paediatric bone injury. Consideration and understanding of the multitude of factors affecting bone injury and healing in children will assist those providing opinion in the medical-legal forum. PMID:26048508

  9. Weight Estimation Tool for Children Aged 6 to 59 Months in Limited-Resource Settings

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Importance A simple, reliable anthropometric tool for rapid estimation of weight in children would be useful in limited-resource settings where current weight estimation tools are not uniformly reliable, nearly all global under-five mortality occurs, severe acute malnutrition is a significant contributor in approximately one-third of under-five mortality, and a weight scale may not be immediately available in emergencies to first-response providers. Objective To determine the accuracy and precision of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and height as weight estimation tools in children under five years of age in low-to-middle income countries. Design This was a retrospective observational study. Data were collected in 560 nutritional surveys during 1992–2006 using a modified Expanded Program of Immunization two-stage cluster sample design. Setting Locations with high prevalence of acute and chronic malnutrition. Participants A total of 453,990 children met inclusion criteria (age 6–59 months; weight ≤ 25 kg; MUAC 80–200 mm) and exclusion criteria (bilateral pitting edema; biologically implausible weight-for-height z-score (WHZ), weight-for-age z-score (WAZ), and height-for-age z-score (HAZ) values). Exposures Weight was estimated using Broselow Tape, Hong Kong formula, and database MUAC alone, height alone, and height and MUAC combined. Main Outcomes and Measures Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight, proportion of estimates accurate to within ± 25% and ± 10% of true weight, weighted Kappa statistic, and Bland-Altman bias were reported as measures of tool accuracy. Standard deviation of mean percentage difference and Bland-Altman 95% limits of agreement were reported as measures of tool precision. Results Database height was a more accurate and precise predictor of weight compared to Broselow Tape 2007 [B], Broselow Tape 2011 [A], and MUAC. Mean percentage difference between true and estimated weight was +0.49% (SD = 10

  10. Crop area estimation based on remotely-sensed data with an accurate but costly subsample

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gunst, R. F.

    1983-01-01

    Alternatives to sampling-theory stratified and regression estimators of crop production and timber biomass were examined. An alternative estimator which is viewed as especially promising is the errors-in-variable regression estimator. Investigations established the need for caution with this estimator when the ratio of two error variances is not precisely known.

  11. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana)

    PubMed Central

    Stansfield, Fiona J.

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These ‘Age Reference Lines’ were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70–75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  12. A Novel Objective Method of Estimating the Age of Mandibles from African Elephants (Loxodonta africana Africana).

    PubMed

    Stansfield, Fiona J

    2015-01-01

    The importance of assigning an accurate estimate of age and sex to elephant carcasses found in the wild has increased in recent years with the escalation in levels of poaching throughout Africa. Irregularities identified in current ageing techniques prompted the development of a new method to describe molar progression throughout life. Elephant mandibles (n = 323) were studied and a point near the distal dental alveolus was identified as being most useful in ranking each jaw according to molar progression. These 'Age Reference Lines' were then associated with an age scale based on previous studies and Zimbabwean mandibles of known age. The new ranking produced a single age scale that proved useful for both male and female mandibles up to the maximum lifespan age of 70-75 years. Methods to aid in molar identification and the sexing of found jaws were also identified. PMID:25970428

  13. Discriminating Projections for Estimating Face Age in Wild Images

    SciTech Connect

    Tokola, Ryan A; Bolme, David S; Ricanek, Karl; Barstow, Del R; Boehnen, Chris Bensing

    2014-01-01

    We introduce a novel approach to estimating the age of a human from a single uncontrolled image. Current face age estimation algorithms work well in highly controlled images, and some are robust to changes in illumination, but it is usually assumed that images are close to frontal. This bias is clearly seen in the datasets that are commonly used to evaluate age estimation, which either entirely or mostly consist of frontal images. Using pose-specific projections, our algorithm maps image features into a pose-insensitive latent space that is discriminative with respect to age. Age estimation is then performed using a multi-class SVM. We show that our approach outperforms other published results on the Images of Groups dataset, which is the only age-related dataset with a non-trivial number of off-axis face images, and that we are competitive with recent age estimation algorithms on the mostly-frontal FG-NET dataset. We also experimentally demonstrate that our feature projections introduce insensitivity to pose.

  14. Age-dependent forest carbon sink: Estimation via inverse modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhou, Tao; Shi, Peijun; Jia, Gensuo; Dai, Yongjiu; Zhao, Xiang; Shangguan, Wei; Du, Ling; Wu, Hao; Luo, Yiqi

    2015-12-01

    Forests have been recognized to sequester a substantial amount of carbon (C) from the atmosphere. However, considerable uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and time course of the C sink. Revealing the intrinsic relationship between forest age and C sink is crucial for reducing uncertainties in prediction of forest C sink potential. In this study, we developed a stepwise data assimilation approach to combine a process-based Terrestrial ECOsystem Regional model, observations from multiple sources, and stochastic sampling to inversely estimate carbon cycle parameters including carbon sink at different forest ages for evergreen needle-leaved forests in China. The new approach is effective to estimate age-dependent parameter of maximal light-use efficiency (R2 = 0.99) and, accordingly, can quantify a relationship between forest age and the vegetation and soil C sinks. The estimated ecosystem C sink increases rapidly with age, peaks at 0.451 kg C m-2 yr-1 at age 22 years (ranging from 0.421 to 0.465 kg C m-2 yr-1), and gradually decreases thereafter. The dynamic patterns of C sinks in vegetation and soil are significantly different. C sink in vegetation first increases rapidly with age and then decreases. C sink in soil, however, increases continuously with age; it acts as a C source when the age is less than 20 years, after which it acts as a sink. For the evergreen needle-leaved forest, the highest C sink efficiency (i.e., C sink per unit net primary productivity) is approximately 60%, with age between 11 and 43 years. Overall, the inverse estimation of carbon cycle parameters can make reasonable estimates of age-dependent C sequestration in forests.

  15. Ages estimated from a diffusion equation model for scarp degradation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Colman, Steven M.; Watson, K.E.N.

    1983-01-01

    The diffusion equation derived from the continuity equation for hillslopes is applied to scarp erosion in unconsolidated materials. Solutions to this equation allow direct calculation of the product of the rate coefficient and the age of the scarp from measurements of scarp morphology. Where the rate coefficient can be estimated or can be derived from scarps of known age, this method allows direct calculation of unknown ages of scarps.

  16. Age synthesis and estimation via faces: a survey.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yun; Guo, Guodong; Huang, Thomas S

    2010-11-01

    Human age, as an important personal trait, can be directly inferred by distinct patterns emerging from the facial appearance. Derived from rapid advances in computer graphics and machine vision, computer-based age synthesis and estimation via faces have become particularly prevalent topics recently because of their explosively emerging real-world applications, such as forensic art, electronic customer relationship management, security control and surveillance monitoring, biometrics, entertainment, and cosmetology. Age synthesis is defined to rerender a face image aesthetically with natural aging and rejuvenating effects on the individual face. Age estimation is defined to label a face image automatically with the exact age (year) or the age group (year range) of the individual face. Because of their particularity and complexity, both problems are attractive yet challenging to computer-based application system designers. Large efforts from both academia and industry have been devoted in the last a few decades. In this paper, we survey the complete state-of-the-art techniques in the face image-based age synthesis and estimation topics. Existing models, popular algorithms, system performances, technical difficulties, popular face aging databases, evaluation protocols, and promising future directions are also provided with systematic discussions. PMID:20847387

  17. Estimation of gestational age from gall-bladder length.

    PubMed

    Udaykumar, K; Udaykumar, Padmaja; Nagesh, K R

    2016-01-01

    Establishing a precise duration of gestation is vital in situations such as infanticide and criminal abortions. The present study attempted to estimate the gestational age of the foetus from gall-bladder length. Foetuses of various gestational age groups were dissected, and the length of the gall bladder was measured. The results were analysed, and a substantial degree of correlation was statistically confirmed. This novel method is helpful when the foetus is fragmented, putrefied or eviscerated, where this method can be used as an additional parameter to improve the accuracy of foetal age estimation. PMID:25990829

  18. Estimation of Stratospheric Age Spectrum from Chemical Tracers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schoeberl, Mark R.; Douglass, Anne R.; Polansky, Brian

    2005-01-01

    We have developed a technique to diagnose the stratospheric age spectrum and estimate the mean age of air using the distributions of at least four constituents with different photochemical lifetimes. We demonstrate that the technique works using a 3D CTM and then apply the technique to UMS CLAES January 1993 observations of CFC11, CFC12, CH4 and N2O. Our results are generally in agreement with mean age of air estimates from the chemical model and from observations of SF6 and CO2; however, the mean age estimates show an intrusion of very young tropical air into the mid-latitude stratosphere. This feature is consistent with mixing of high N20 air out of the tropics during the westerly phase of the QBO.

  19. An accurate modeling, simulation, and analysis tool for predicting and estimating Raman LIDAR system performance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Grasso, Robert J.; Russo, Leonard P.; Barrett, John L.; Odhner, Jefferson E.; Egbert, Paul I.

    2007-09-01

    BAE Systems presents the results of a program to model the performance of Raman LIDAR systems for the remote detection of atmospheric gases, air polluting hydrocarbons, chemical and biological weapons, and other molecular species of interest. Our model, which integrates remote Raman spectroscopy, 2D and 3D LADAR, and USAF atmospheric propagation codes permits accurate determination of the performance of a Raman LIDAR system. The very high predictive performance accuracy of our model is due to the very accurate calculation of the differential scattering cross section for the specie of interest at user selected wavelengths. We show excellent correlation of our calculated cross section data, used in our model, with experimental data obtained from both laboratory measurements and the published literature. In addition, the use of standard USAF atmospheric models provides very accurate determination of the atmospheric extinction at both the excitation and Raman shifted wavelengths.

  20. Estimating Small-area Populations by Age and Sex Using Spatial Interpolation and Statistical Inference Methods

    SciTech Connect

    Qai, Qiang; Rushton, Gerald; Bhaduri, Budhendra L; Bright, Eddie A; Coleman, Phil R

    2006-01-01

    The objective of this research is to compute population estimates by age and sex for small areas whose boundaries are different from those for which the population counts were made. In our approach, population surfaces and age-sex proportion surfaces are separately estimated. Age-sex population estimates for small areas and their confidence intervals are then computed using a binomial model with the two surfaces as inputs. The approach was implemented for Iowa using a 90 m resolution population grid (LandScan USA) and U.S. Census 2000 population. Three spatial interpolation methods, the areal weighting (AW) method, the ordinary kriging (OK) method, and a modification of the pycnophylactic method, were used on Census Tract populations to estimate the age-sex proportion surfaces. To verify the model, age-sex population estimates were computed for paired Block Groups that straddled Census Tracts and therefore were spatially misaligned with them. The pycnophylactic method and the OK method were more accurate than the AW method. The approach is general and can be used to estimate subgroup-count types of variables from information in existing administrative areas for custom-defined areas used as the spatial basis of support in other applications.

  1. Validity of demirjian and nolla methods for dental age estimation for Northeastern Turkish children aged 5–16 years old

    PubMed Central

    Nur, Bilge; Kusgoz, Adem; Bayram, Mehmet; Nur, Metin; Kayipmaz, Saadettin; Yildirim, Sina

    2012-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the applicability of Demirjian and Nolla methods for northeastern Turkish population. Material and Method: A retrospective study was performed on panoramic radiographs of 673 subjects aged 5–15.9 years. The mean dental age (DA) according to the Demirjian and Nolla methods were compared to the mean chronological age (CA). Results: The mean CA of the study sample was 10.37±2.90 and 10.03±2.81 years for females and males, respectively. Using the Demirjian method, the mean estimated DA was 11.26±3.02 years for females and 10.87±2.96 years for males. For Nolla method, the mean estimated DA was 9.80±3.41 and 9.53±3.14 years for females and males, respectively. The mean differences between the CA and DA according to the Demirjian and Nolla methods were 0.86 and -0.54 years for total study sample. Conclusion: Nolla method was found to be a more accurate method for estimating DA in northeastern Turkish population. Key words:Dental age, demirjian method, nolla method, chronological age. PMID:22549686

  2. Age Estimation in Living Egyptians Using Signal Joint T-cell Receptor Excision Circle Rearrangement.

    PubMed

    Ibrahim, Samah F; Gaballah, Iman F; Rashed, Laila A

    2016-07-01

    Age estimation is one of the challenges in forensic sciences. There are many techniques to estimate the age. Molecular biology approach is one of these techniques. Signal joint T-cell receptor excision circles gene (sjTRECs), is one of this approach. We aimed to use sjTRECs as a suitable marker for age estimation among Egyptian population. TaqMan qPCR approach was used to quantify sjTREC levels in blood samples obtained from 153 healthy Egyptian individuals ranging from a few weeks to 70 years. Our results showed a significant negative correlation between sjTREC levels and age with p ≤ 0.05. Moreover, the individual's age can be determined through this formula Age = -30.671+ (-5.998Y) (Y is dCtTBP - sjTREC) with standard error ±7.35 years. Within the forensic context, sjTREC' levels can be used to estimate the Egyptian individual's age accurately. PMID:27184828

  3. Estimating ages of white-tailed deer: Age and sex patterns of error using tooth wear-and-replacement and consistency of cementum annuli

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Samuel, Michael D.; Storm, Daniel J.; Rolley, Robert E.; Beissel, Thomas; Richards, Bryan J.; Van Deelen, Timothy R.

    2014-01-01

    The age structure of harvested animals provides the basis for many demographic analyses. Ages of harvested white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and other ungulates often are estimated by evaluating replacement and wear patterns of teeth, which is subjective and error-prone. Few previous studies however, examined age- and sex-specific error rates. Counting cementum annuli of incisors is an alternative, more accurate method of estimating age, but factors that influence consistency of cementum annuli counts are poorly known. We estimated age of 1,261 adult (≥1.5 yr old) white-tailed deer harvested in Wisconsin and Illinois (USA; 2005–2008) using both wear-and-replacement and cementum annuli. We compared cementum annuli with wear-and-replacement estimates to assess misclassification rates by sex and age. Wear-and-replacement for estimating ages of white-tailed deer resulted in substantial misclassification compared with cementum annuli. Age classes of females were consistently underestimated, while those of males were underestimated for younger age classes but overestimated for older age classes. Misclassification resulted in an impression of a younger age-structure than actually was the case. Additionally, we obtained paired age-estimates from cementum annuli for 295 deer. Consistency of paired cementum annuli age-estimates decreased with age, was lower in females than males, and decreased as age estimates became less certain. Our results indicated that errors in the wear-and-replacement techniques are substantial and could impact demographic analyses that use age-structure information. 

  4. Bi-fluorescence imaging for estimating accurately the nuclear condition of Rhizoctonia spp.

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Aims: To simplify the determination of the nuclear condition of the pathogenic Rhizoctonia, which currently needs to be performed either using two fluorescent dyes, thus is more costly and time-consuming, or using only one fluorescent dye, and thus less accurate. Methods and Results: A red primary ...

  5. Estimation method of point spread function based on Kalman filter for accurately evaluating real optical properties of photonic crystal fibers.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yan; Lou, Shuqin; Wang, Xin

    2014-03-20

    The evaluation accuracy of real optical properties of photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) is determined by the accurate extraction of air hole edges from microscope images of cross sections of practical PCFs. A novel estimation method of point spread function (PSF) based on Kalman filter is presented to rebuild the micrograph image of the PCF cross-section and thus evaluate real optical properties for practical PCFs. Through tests on both artificially degraded images and microscope images of cross sections of practical PCFs, we prove that the proposed method can achieve more accurate PSF estimation and lower PSF variance than the traditional Bayesian estimation method, and thus also reduce the defocus effect. With this method, we rebuild the microscope images of two kinds of commercial PCFs produced by Crystal Fiber and analyze the real optical properties of these PCFs. Numerical results are in accord with the product parameters. PMID:24663461

  6. Conventional versus digital approach for measuring dentin translucency in forensic age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Chopra, Varun; Thodasam, Gopal; Ahmad, Zeeshan Heera; Singh, Simranjit; Rajawat, Indresh; Gupta, Sonal

    2015-01-01

    Background: Root dentine translucency remains the method of choice providing the most accurate results for age estimation. Conventionally, translucency is measured using calipers. In recent times, computer-based methods are proposed, which require the use of custom-built software programs. Aims and Objectives: The aim was to use a digital method to measure dentinal translucency on sectioned teeth and to compare digital measurements to conventionally obtained translucency measurements. Materials and Methods: A total of 200 extracted permanent teeth were collected and were sectioned to a thickness of 250 μm. Translucency measurements were obtained using the digital method and compared with those obtained using a caliper. Results: Correlation coefficients of translucency measurements to age were statistically significant for both methods (P < 0.001), although marginally higher correlation was observed for the conventional method (r = 0.612). Application of derived linear regression equations on an independent sample (n = 25) suggested that conventional approach is marginally better in estimating age to within 5 years of the actual age, both the methods are similar in assessing age within 5-10 years of the actual age, and digital approach is marginally better in estimating age beyond 10 years of actual age. Conclusion: The translucency measurements obtained by the two methods were identical, with no clear superiority of one method over the other. PMID:25810651

  7. Technical note: tree truthing: how accurate are substrate estimates in primate field studies?

    PubMed

    Bezanson, Michelle; Watts, Sean M; Jobin, Matthew J

    2012-04-01

    Field studies of primate positional behavior typically rely on ground-level estimates of substrate size, angle, and canopy location. These estimates potentially influence the identification of positional modes by the observer recording behaviors. In this study we aim to test ground-level estimates against direct measurements of support angles, diameters, and canopy heights in trees at La Suerte Biological Research Station in Costa Rica. After reviewing methods that have been used by past researchers, we provide data collected within trees that are compared to estimates obtained from the ground. We climbed five trees and measured 20 supports. Four observers collected measurements of each support from different locations on the ground. Diameter estimates varied from the direct tree measures by 0-28 cm (Mean: 5.44 ± 4.55). Substrate angles varied by 1-55° (Mean: 14.76 ± 14.02). Height in the tree was best estimated using a clinometer as estimates with a two-meter reference placed by the tree varied by 3-11 meters (Mean: 5.31 ± 2.44). We determined that the best support size estimates were those generated relative to the size of the focal animal and divided into broader categories. Support angles were best estimated in 5° increments and then checked using a Haglöf clinometer in combination with a laser pointer. We conclude that three major factors should be addressed when estimating support features: observer error (e.g., experience and distance from the target), support deformity, and how support size and angle influence the positional mode selected by a primate individual. individual. PMID:22371099

  8. Accurate state estimation for a hydraulic actuator via a SDRE nonlinear filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strano, Salvatore; Terzo, Mario

    2016-06-01

    The state estimation in hydraulic actuators is a fundamental tool for the detection of faults or a valid alternative to the installation of sensors. Due to the hard nonlinearities that characterize the hydraulic actuators, the performances of the linear/linearization based techniques for the state estimation are strongly limited. In order to overcome these limits, this paper focuses on an alternative nonlinear estimation method based on the State-Dependent-Riccati-Equation (SDRE). The technique is able to fully take into account the system nonlinearities and the measurement noise. A fifth order nonlinear model is derived and employed for the synthesis of the estimator. Simulations and experimental tests have been conducted and comparisons with the largely used Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) are illustrated. The results show the effectiveness of the SDRE based technique for applications characterized by not negligible nonlinearities such as dead zone and frictions.

  9. Statistical estimation of mineral age by K-Ar method

    SciTech Connect

    Vistelius, A.B.; Drubetzkoy, E.R.; Faas, A.V. )

    1989-11-01

    Statistical estimation of age of {sup 40}Ar/{sup 40}K ratios may be considered a result of convolution of uniform and normal distributions with different weights for different minerals. Data from Gul'shad Massif (Nearbalkhash, Kazakhstan, USSR) indicate that {sup 40}Ar/{sup 40}K ratios reflecting the intensity of geochemical processes can be resolved using convolutions. Loss of {sup 40}Ar in biotites is shown whereas hornblende retained the original content of {sup 40}Ar throughout the geological history of the massif. Results demonstrate that different estimation methods must be used for different minerals and different rocks when radiometric ages are employed for dating.

  10. A Bayesian estimation of the helioseismic solar age

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanno, A.; Fröhlich, H.-E.

    2015-08-01

    Context. The helioseismic determination of the solar age has been a subject of several studies because it provides us with an independent estimation of the age of the solar system. Aims: We present the Bayesian estimates of the helioseismic age of the Sun, which are determined by means of calibrated solar models that employ different equations of state and nuclear reaction rates. Methods: We use 17 frequency separation ratios r02(n) = (νn,l = 0-νn-1,l = 2)/(νn,l = 1-νn-1,l = 1) from 8640 days of low-ℓBiSON frequencies and consider three likelihood functions that depend on the handling of the errors of these r02(n) ratios. Moreover, we employ the 2010 CODATA recommended values for Newton's constant, solar mass, and radius to calibrate a large grid of solar models spanning a conceivable range of solar ages. Results: It is shown that the most constrained posterior distribution of the solar age for models employing Irwin EOS with NACRE reaction rates leads to t⊙ = 4.587 ± 0.007 Gyr, while models employing the Irwin EOS and Adelberger, et al. (2011, Rev. Mod. Phys., 83, 195) reaction rate have t⊙ = 4.569 ± 0.006 Gyr. Implementing OPAL EOS in the solar models results in reduced evidence ratios (Bayes factors) and leads to an age that is not consistent with the meteoritic dating of the solar system. Conclusions: An estimate of the solar age that relies on an helioseismic age indicator such as r02(n) turns out to be essentially independent of the type of likelihood function. However, with respect to model selection, abandoning any information concerning the errors of the r02(n) ratios leads to inconclusive results, and this stresses the importance of evaluating the trustworthiness of error estimates.

  11. Objective measurement of shade color in age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Vaidya, Sharad; Ahuja, Nitin; Bajaj, Puneet; Kapoor, Charu; Sabarwal, Robin; Rajpal, Karan

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is an important subspecialty of forensic medicine. Dental hard tissues are highly resistant to degradation and putrefaction. Enamel is translucent and varies in color from light yellow to grey white. The color of the teeth has been reported to be affected by chronological age. Enamel color may also depend on environmental factors viz. diet, occupational habits, vitamin deficiencies, fluoride level in drinking water etc., It has been found that color changes in dentin vary from white to yellow. Studies have been done to measure the dentin color for age estimation. Aim: To find a correlation between the enamel color and chronological age and secondly to estimate the age of an individual from enamel color. Material and Methods: A total of 300 patients visiting the outpatient department of oral medicine and radiology were selected. Out of those, 150 were men and 150 women. The patients were divided into V groups based on the age. A thorough case history was taken for all the patients. Maxillary Central and Lateral incisor was used for the estimation of shade. The enamel color was evaluated using a VITA classical shade guide. Statistical Analysis: Data were exported to an Excel spread sheet and statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS. Linear regression analysis was used to find correlations between age and enamel shade. Results: In the group 1 and 2 i.e. from 15 to 36 years, the shades A 2 and B 2 (reddish hue) was found to be most common. While in the group 3 and 4, shades ranged from A 3 to B 3 (brownish to yellowish hue). In the patients above 59 years i.e. group 5 the enamel shade with greyish hue was found to be most common. Conclusion: Age determination using enamel color can be tried in forensic cases in the identification of individuals with no birth records. PMID:26816455

  12. Age estimation of immature human skeletal remains from the diaphyseal length of the long bones in the postnatal period.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Abrantes, Joana; Humphrey, Louise T

    2014-09-01

    Age at death in immature human skeletal remains has been estimated from the diaphyseal length of the long bones, but few studies have actually been designed specifically for the purpose of age estimation and those which have, show important caveats. This study uses regression and classical calibration to model the relationship between age and diaphyseal length of the six long bones, in a sample of 184 known sex and age individuals (72 females and 112 males), younger than 13 years of age, selected from Portuguese and English skeletal collections. Age estimation models based on classical calibration were obtained for each of the six long bones, and separately for each sex and for the sexes combined, and also for the entire sample and when it is subdivided into two subsamples at the age of 2 years. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show there is a systematic bias in age estimations obtained from inverse calibration. In the classical calibration models, the length of the femur provides the most accurate estimates of age. Age estimates are more accurate for the male subsample and for individuals under the age of 2 years. These results and a test of previously published methods caution against inverse calibration as a technique for developing age estimation methods even from the immature skeleton. Age estimation methods developed using cemetery collections of identified human skeletons should not be uncritically applied to present-day populations from the same region since many populations have experienced dramatic secular trends in growth and adult height over the last century. PMID:24126574

  13. 40Ar/39Ar dating of Pleistocene tuffs: an accurate age for the Matuyama-Brunhes geomagnetic reversal (MBGR)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mark, D. F.; Renne, P. R.; Morgan, L. E.; Deino, A.; Smith, V. C.; Ellis, B. S.; Pearce, N. J.

    2012-12-01

    Recent recalibrations of the 40Ar/39Ar system [1,2] reveal inconsistencies with some previous ages inferred for the MBGR. An Ar/Ar age [3] for the Bishop Tuff (BT) (which post-dates the MBGR by at least 15.3 ± 2.2 ka [3]) recalculated [2] yields an age of 778.0 ± 3.8 ka (1σ, full systematic uncertainty). The age is c. 10 ka older than the BT zircon ID-TIMS U-Pb age [4] and places the MBGR at c. 793 ka, c. 13 and 20 ka older than astronomical ages for the MBGR of 780 ka [5] and 773 ka [6], respectively. To determine an accurate age for the MBGR, we have made a series of 40Ar/39Ar age determinations for Pleistocene tuffs from both Indonesia and North America that have direct relationships to the MBGR. Blind analyses were conducted at SUERC and BGC. We observed excellent inter-laboratory agreement and no systematic offset in data. Ar/Ar ages are reported relative to [2] (1σ, full systematic uncertainty). Drill cores from ODP Site 758 show the precise location of the MBGR. Below the MBGR are two distal tephra horizons that we have identified as products of two temporally distinct Old Toba Tuff (OTT) eruptions (layer d OTT1 and layer D OTT2). Continuous sedimentation between OTT1 (802.8 ± 0.7 ka, n = 100, MSWD 1.2) and OTT2 (796.2 ± 0.8 ka, n = 62, MSWD 1.3) allows for calculation of an accurate sedimentation rate and for extrapolation of an age from OTT2 to the MBGR. Data define an age for the MBGR of 795.2 ± 0.9 ka. Using tephra above the MBGR boundary, the Middle Toba Tuff (layer C) and Young Toba Tuff (layer A), extrapolation down core supports a MBGR age of c. 795 ka. Recent age data for BT sanidine reported relative to FCs at 28.172 Ma (767.4 ± 1.1 Ma) [7] oddly yielded an Ar/Ar age that was indistinguishable from the BT zircon U-Pb age [4], which is consistent with previous 40Ar/39Ar age measurements made relative to FCs at 28.02 Ma [3]. Thus we made a series of 40Ar/39Ar measurements on the exact same sample as used by Rivera et al. [7] and observed

  14. FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION Accurate estimate of α variation and isotope shift parameters in Na and Mg+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahoo, B. K.

    2010-12-01

    We present accurate calculations of fine-structure constant variation coefficients and isotope shifts in Na and Mg+ using the relativistic coupled-cluster method. In our approach, we are able to discover the roles of various correlation effects explicitly to all orders in these calculations. Most of the results, especially for the excited states, are reported for the first time. It is possible to ascertain suitable anchor and probe lines for the studies of possible variation in the fine-structure constant by using the above results in the considered systems.

  15. Paleoglaciation of the Tibetan Plateau based on exposure ages and ELA depression estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heyman, Jakob

    2014-05-01

    The Tibetan Plateau holds a major part of all glaciers outside the polar regions and an ample record of past glaciations. The glacial history of the Tibetan Plateau has attracted significant interest, with a large body of research investigating the extent, timing, and climatic implications of past glaciations. Here I present an extensive compilation of exposure ages and equilibrium line altitude (ELA) depression estimates from glacial deposits across the Tibetan Plateau to address the timing and degree of past glaciations. I compiled Be-10 exposure age data for a total of 1877 samples and recalculated exposure ages using an updated (lower) global Be-10 production rate. All samples were organized in groups of individual glacial deposits where each deposit represents one glacial event enabling evaluation of the exposure age clustering. For each glacial deposit I estimated the ELA depression based on a simple toe to headwall ratio approach using Google Earth. To discriminate good (well-clustered) from poor (scattered) exposure age groups the glacial deposits were divided into three groups based on exposure age clustering. A major part of the glacial deposits have scattered exposure ages affected by prior or incomplete exposure, complicating exposure age interpretations. The well-clustered exposure age groups are primarily from mountain ranges along the margins of the Tibetan Plateau with a main peak in age between 10 and 30 ka, indicating glacial advances during the global last glacial maximum (LGM). A large number of exposure ages older than 30 ka indicates maximum glaciation predating the LGM, but the exposure age scatter generally prohibits accurate definition of the glacial chronology. The ELA depression estimates scatter significantly, but a major part is remarkably low. Average ELA depressions of 333 ± 191 m for the LGM and 494 ± 280 m for the pre-LGM exposure indicate restricted glacier expansion and limited glacial cooling.

  16. Accurate State Estimation and Tracking of a Non-Cooperative Target Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thienel, Julie K.; Sanner, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Autonomous space rendezvous scenarios require knowledge of the target vehicle state in order to safely dock with the chaser vehicle. Ideally, the target vehicle state information is derived from telemetered data, or with the use of known tracking points on the target vehicle. However, if the target vehicle is non-cooperative and does not have the ability to maintain attitude control, or transmit attitude knowledge, the docking becomes more challenging. This work presents a nonlinear approach for estimating the body rates of a non-cooperative target vehicle, and coupling this estimation to a tracking control scheme. The approach is tested with the robotic servicing mission concept for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Such a mission would not only require estimates of the HST attitude and rates, but also precision control to achieve the desired rate and maintain the orientation to successfully dock with HST.

  17. Precision Pointing Control to and Accurate Target Estimation of a Non-Cooperative Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanEepoel, John; Thienel, Julie; Sanner, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    In 2004, NASA began investigating a robotic servicing mission for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Such a mission would not only require estimates of the HST attitude and rates in order to achieve capture by the proposed Hubble Robotic Vehicle (HRV), but also precision control to achieve the desired rate and maintain the orientation to successfully dock with HST. To generalize the situation, HST is the target vehicle and HRV is the chaser. This work presents a nonlinear approach for estimating the body rates of a non-cooperative target vehicle, and coupling this estimation to a control scheme. Non-cooperative in this context relates to the target vehicle no longer having the ability to maintain attitude control or transmit attitude knowledge.

  18. A microbial clock provides an accurate estimate of the postmortem interval in a mouse model system

    PubMed Central

    Metcalf, Jessica L; Wegener Parfrey, Laura; Gonzalez, Antonio; Lauber, Christian L; Knights, Dan; Ackermann, Gail; Humphrey, Gregory C; Gebert, Matthew J; Van Treuren, Will; Berg-Lyons, Donna; Keepers, Kyle; Guo, Yan; Bullard, James; Fierer, Noah; Carter, David O; Knight, Rob

    2013-01-01

    Establishing the time since death is critical in every death investigation, yet existing techniques are susceptible to a range of errors and biases. For example, forensic entomology is widely used to assess the postmortem interval (PMI), but errors can range from days to months. Microbes may provide a novel method for estimating PMI that avoids many of these limitations. Here we show that postmortem microbial community changes are dramatic, measurable, and repeatable in a mouse model system, allowing PMI to be estimated within approximately 3 days over 48 days. Our results provide a detailed understanding of bacterial and microbial eukaryotic ecology within a decomposing corpse system and suggest that microbial community data can be developed into a forensic tool for estimating PMI. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01104.001 PMID:24137541

  19. Fast and accurate probability density estimation in large high dimensional astronomical datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Pramod; Connolly, Andrew J.; Gardner, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    Astronomical surveys will generate measurements of hundreds of attributes (e.g. color, size, shape) on hundreds of millions of sources. Analyzing these large, high dimensional data sets will require efficient algorithms for data analysis. An example of this is probability density estimation that is at the heart of many classification problems such as the separation of stars and quasars based on their colors. Popular density estimation techniques use binning or kernel density estimation. Kernel density estimation has a small memory footprint but often requires large computational resources. Binning has small computational requirements but usually binning is implemented with multi-dimensional arrays which leads to memory requirements which scale exponentially with the number of dimensions. Hence both techniques do not scale well to large data sets in high dimensions. We present an alternative approach of binning implemented with hash tables (BASH tables). This approach uses the sparseness of data in the high dimensional space to ensure that the memory requirements are small. However hashing requires some extra computation so a priori it is not clear if the reduction in memory requirements will lead to increased computational requirements. Through an implementation of BASH tables in C++ we show that the additional computational requirements of hashing are negligible. Hence this approach has small memory and computational requirements. We apply our density estimation technique to photometric selection of quasars using non-parametric Bayesian classification and show that the accuracy of the classification is same as the accuracy of earlier approaches. Since the BASH table approach is one to three orders of magnitude faster than the earlier approaches it may be useful in various other applications of density estimation in astrostatistics.

  20. Spectral estimation from laser scanner data for accurate color rendering of objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baribeau, Rejean

    2002-06-01

    Estimation methods are studied for the recovery of the spectral reflectance across the visible range from the sensing at just three discrete laser wavelengths. Methods based on principal component analysis and on spline interpolation are judged based on the CIE94 color differences for some reference data sets. These include the Macbeth color checker, the OSA-UCS color charts, some artist pigments, and a collection of miscellaneous surface colors. The optimal three sampling wavelengths are also investigated. It is found that color can be estimated with average accuracy ΔE94 = 2.3 when optimal wavelengths 455 nm, 540 n, and 610 nm are used.

  1. Crop area estimation based on remotely-sensed data with an accurate but costly subsample

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gunst, R. F.

    1985-01-01

    Research activities conducted under the auspices of National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cooperative Agreement NCC 9-9 are discussed. During this contract period research efforts are concentrated in two primary areas. The first are is an investigation of the use of measurement error models as alternatives to least squares regression estimators of crop production or timber biomass. The secondary primary area of investigation is on the estimation of the mixing proportion of two-component mixture models. This report lists publications, technical reports, submitted manuscripts, and oral presentation generated by these research efforts. Possible areas of future research are mentioned.

  2. Late Enrichment Maintains Accurate Recent and Remote Spatial Memory Only in Aged Rats That Were Unimpaired When Middle Aged

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fuchs, Fanny; Herbeaux, Karine; Aufrere, Noémie; Kelche, Christian; Mathis, Chantal; Barbelivien, Alexandra; Majchrzak, Monique

    2016-01-01

    Exposure of rodents to a stimulating environment has beneficial effects on some cognitive functions that are impaired during physiological aging, and especially spatial reference memory. The present study investigated whether environmental enrichment rescues these functions in already declining subjects and/or protects them from subsequent…

  3. A Generalized Subspace Least Mean Square Method for High-resolution Accurate Estimation of Power System Oscillation Modes

    SciTech Connect

    Zhang, Peng; Zhou, Ning; Abdollahi, Ali

    2013-09-10

    A Generalized Subspace-Least Mean Square (GSLMS) method is presented for accurate and robust estimation of oscillation modes from exponentially damped power system signals. The method is based on orthogonality of signal and noise eigenvectors of the signal autocorrelation matrix. Performance of the proposed method is evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation and compared with Prony method. Test results show that the GSLMS is highly resilient to noise and significantly dominates Prony method in tracking power system modes under noisy environments.

  4. Accurate motion parameter estimation for colonoscopy tracking using a regression method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jianfei; Subramanian, Kalpathi R.; Yoo, Terry S.

    2010-03-01

    Co-located optical and virtual colonoscopy images have the potential to provide important clinical information during routine colonoscopy procedures. In our earlier work, we presented an optical flow based algorithm to compute egomotion from live colonoscopy video, permitting navigation and visualization of the corresponding patient anatomy. In the original algorithm, motion parameters were estimated using the traditional Least Sum of squares(LS) procedure which can be unstable in the context of optical flow vectors with large errors. In the improved algorithm, we use the Least Median of Squares (LMS) method, a robust regression method for motion parameter estimation. Using the LMS method, we iteratively analyze and converge toward the main distribution of the flow vectors, while disregarding outliers. We show through three experiments the improvement in tracking results obtained using the LMS method, in comparison to the LS estimator. The first experiment demonstrates better spatial accuracy in positioning the virtual camera in the sigmoid colon. The second and third experiments demonstrate the robustness of this estimator, resulting in longer tracked sequences: from 300 to 1310 in the ascending colon, and 410 to 1316 in the transverse colon.

  5. Accurate Angle Estimator for High-Frame-Rate 2-D Vector Flow Imaging.

    PubMed

    Villagomez Hoyos, Carlos Armando; Stuart, Matthias Bo; Hansen, Kristoffer Lindskov; Nielsen, Michael Bachmann; Jensen, Jorgen Arendt

    2016-06-01

    This paper presents a novel approach for estimating 2-D flow angles using a high-frame-rate ultrasound method. The angle estimator features high accuracy and low standard deviation (SD) over the full 360° range. The method is validated on Field II simulations and phantom measurements using the experimental ultrasound scanner SARUS and a flow rig before being tested in vivo. An 8-MHz linear array transducer is used with defocused beam emissions. In the simulations of a spinning disk phantom, a 360° uniform behavior on the angle estimation is observed with a median angle bias of 1.01° and a median angle SD of 1.8°. Similar results are obtained on a straight vessel for both simulations and measurements, where the obtained angle biases are below 1.5° with SDs around 1°. Estimated velocity magnitudes are also kept under 10% bias and 5% relative SD in both simulations and measurements. An in vivo measurement is performed on a carotid bifurcation of a healthy individual. A 3-s acquisition during three heart cycles is captured. A consistent and repetitive vortex is observed in the carotid bulb during systoles. PMID:27093598

  6. Accuracy of early stand exam age estimates in the Swan Valley of Western Montana. Forest Service research note

    SciTech Connect

    Hart, M.; Lesica, P.

    1994-04-01

    The stand exams conducted in western Montana over 50 years ago provide a valuable source of information on prefire suppression and preharvest condition of the region's forests. Of the early exam estimates of stand origin, 52 percent were within 20 years of estimates taken from stand exams conducted in the 1980's, and 73 percent were within 60 years. There was no significant bias toward either higher or lower age estimates. The early stand exam data can give an accurate estimate of stand age distributions over large areas.

  7. Human age estimation from blood using mRNA, DNA methylation, DNA rearrangement, and telomere length.

    PubMed

    Zubakov, Dmitry; Liu, Fan; Kokmeijer, Iris; Choi, Ying; van Meurs, Joyce B J; van IJcken, Wilfred F J; Uitterlinden, André G; Hofman, Albert; Broer, Linda; van Duijn, Cornelia M; Lewin, Jörn; Kayser, Manfred

    2016-09-01

    Establishing the age of unknown persons, or persons with unknown age, can provide important leads in police investigations, disaster victim identification, fraud cases, and in other legal affairs. Previous methods mostly relied on morphological features available from teeth or skeletal parts. The development of molecular methods for age estimation allowing to use human specimens that possess no morphological age information, such as bloodstains, is extremely valuable as this type of samples is commonly found at crime scenes. Recently, we introduced a DNA-based approach for human age estimation from blood based on the quantification of T-cell specific DNA rearrangements (sjTRECs), which achieves accurate assignment of blood DNA samples to one of four 20-year-interval age categories. Aiming at improving the accuracy of molecular age estimation from blood, we investigated different types of biomarkers. We started out by systematic genome-wide surveys for new age-informative mRNA and DNA methylation markers in blood from the same young and old individuals using microarray technologies. The obtained candidate markers were validated in independent samples covering a wide age range using alternative technologies together with previously proposed DNA methylation, sjTREC, and telomere length markers. Cross-validated multiple regression analysis was applied for estimating and validating the age predictive power of various sets of biomarkers within and across different marker types. We found that DNA methylation markers outperformed mRNA, sjTREC, and telomere length in age predictive power. The best performing model included 8 DNA methylation markers derived from 3 CpG islands reaching a high level of accuracy (cross-validated R(2)=0.88, SE±6.97 years, mean absolute deviation 5.07 years). However, our data also suggest that mRNA markers can provide independent age information: a model using a combined set of 5 DNA methylation markers and one mRNA marker could provide

  8. Age estimation from the acetabulum in South African black males.

    PubMed

    Botha, D; Pretorius, S; Myburgh, J; Steyn, M

    2016-05-01

    Anthropologists are constantly seeking to improve methods for age estimation in the human skeleton. A new method was introduced about a decade ago that assesses the morphological changes that take place in the acetabulum as an individual ages. The pelvis is usually well preserved in forensic cases, which makes this method potentially valuable as an adult age indicator. This method employs seven variables, each with its own set of phases. To test the accuracy and reliability of this method, 100 black South African male acetabula from the Pretoria Bone Collection were assessed based on the criteria described in the original study. Box plots and transition curves were constructed to establish whether progression with age was visible and how it could possibly be modelled. Inter-observer reliability was also assessed by making use of Fleiss's Kappa statistic. Five specimens were used as out-of-sample examples for which maximum likelihood (point) estimates were calculated. The results demonstrated that middle and older individuals' age estimates were vastly underestimated. Inter-observer repeatability was poor, which suggested that the classification system most likely needs to be modified. A discussion and recommendation is given for improvement of reliability and repeatability of this method. PMID:26662190

  9. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    PubMed

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. PMID:26553980

  10. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S. C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search–based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people’s online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. PMID:26553980

  11. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma

    PubMed Central

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D.; Wancata, Lauren M.; Muenz, Daniel G.; Haymart, Megan R.; Wong, Sandra L.

    2016-01-01

    Objective Overall cancer incidence is decreasing while melanoma cases increase. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients as they survive past diagnosis. It is unknown the effect age and stage has on a melanoma patient’s conditional survival estimate. Methods Surveillance, Epidemiology, End Results (SEER) data was utilized, identifying new diagnosis cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95,041), from 1998–2005, with up to 12 year follow up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression and transformed to estimate conditional five-year survival. Results Localized melanoma patients have an excellent five-year survival at diagnosis and subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70–79 years) to younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 (95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01–4.84) and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93–2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87–1.53). Over time conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease nor is the age gradient. Conclusions Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanoma is initially impacted by older age with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional five-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  12. Implications of age and conditional survival estimates for patients with melanoma.

    PubMed

    Banerjee, Mousumi; Lao, Christopher D; Wancata, Lauren M; Muenz, Daniel G; Haymart, Megan R; Wong, Sandra L

    2016-02-01

    Overall cancer incidence is decreasing, whereas melanoma cases are increasing. Conditional survival estimates offer a more accurate prognosis for patients the farther they are from time of diagnosis. The effect of age and stage on a melanoma patient's conditional survival estimate is unknown. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were utilized to identify newly diagnosed cutaneous melanoma patients (N=95 041), from 1998 to 2005, with up to 12 years of follow-up. Estimates of disease-specific survival by stage and age were determined by Cox regression analysis and transformed to estimated conditional 5-year survival. Localized melanoma patients have an excellent 5-year survival at diagnosis and over subsequent years. For patients with localized and regional disease, an age effect is present for disease-specific mortality when comparing older patients (70-79 years) with younger patients (<30 years): hazard ratio (HR) for mortality 3.79 [95% confidence interval (CI) 3.01-4.84] and HR 2.36 (95% CI 1.93-2.91), respectively. No age effect difference is observed in disease-specific survival for advanced disease: HR 1.14 (95% CI 0.87-1.53). Over time, conditional survival estimates improve for older patients with localized and regional disease. This improvement is not seen in distant disease, neither is the age gradient. Disease-specific mortality and conditional survival for patients with localized and regional melanomas are initially impacted by older age, with effects dissipating over time. Age does not affect survival in patients with advanced disease. Understanding the conditional 5-year disease-specific survival of melanoma based on age and stage can help patients and physicians, informing decision-making about treatment and surveillance. PMID:26479218

  13. Age estimation of the Deccan Traps from the North American apparent polar wander path

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stoddard, Paul R.; Jurdy, Donna M.

    1988-01-01

    It has recently been proposed that flood basalt events, such as the eruption of the Deccan Traps, have been responsible for mass extinctions. To test this hypothesis, accurate estimations of the ages and duration of these events are needed. In the case of the Deccan Traps, however, neither age nor duration of emplacement is well constrianed; measured ages range from 40 to more than 80 Myr, and estimates of duration range from less than 1 to 67 Myr. To make an independent age determination, paleomagnetic and sea-floor-spreading data are used, and the associated errors are estimated. The Deccan paleomagnetic pole is compared with the reference apparent polar wander path of North America by rotating the positions of the paleomagnetic pole for the Deccan Traps to the reference path for a range of assumed ages. Uncertainties in the apparent polar wander path, Deccan paleopole position, and errors resulting from the plate reconstruction are estimated. It is suggested that 83-70 Myr is the most likely time of extrusion of these volcanic rocks.

  14. Techniques for accurate estimation of net discharge in a tidal channel

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Michael R.; Bland, Roger

    1999-01-01

    An ultrasonic velocity meter discharge-measurement site in a tidally affected region of the Sacramento-San Joaquin rivers was used to study the accuracy of the index velocity calibration procedure. Calibration data consisting of ultrasonic velocity meter index velocity and concurrent acoustic Doppler discharge measurement data were collected during three time periods. The relative magnitude of equipment errors, acoustic Doppler discharge measurement errors, and calibration errors were evaluated. Calibration error was the most significant source of error in estimating net discharge. Using a comprehensive calibration method, net discharge estimates developed from the three sets of calibration data differed by less than an average of 4 cubic meters per second. Typical maximum flow rates during the data-collection period averaged 750 cubic meters per second.

  15. Lower bound on reliability for Weibull distribution when shape parameter is not estimated accurately

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Zhaofeng; Porter, Albert A.

    1991-01-01

    The mathematical relationships between the shape parameter Beta and estimates of reliability and a life limit lower bound for the two parameter Weibull distribution are investigated. It is shown that under rather general conditions, both the reliability lower bound and the allowable life limit lower bound (often called a tolerance limit) have unique global minimums over a range of Beta. Hence lower bound solutions can be obtained without assuming or estimating Beta. The existence and uniqueness of these lower bounds are proven. Some real data examples are given to show how these lower bounds can be easily established and to demonstrate their practicality. The method developed here has proven to be extremely useful when using the Weibull distribution in analysis of no-failure or few-failures data. The results are applicable not only in the aerospace industry but anywhere that system reliabilities are high.

  16. Lower bound on reliability for Weibull distribution when shape parameter is not estimated accurately

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Zhaofeng; Porter, Albert A.

    1990-01-01

    The mathematical relationships between the shape parameter Beta and estimates of reliability and a life limit lower bound for the two parameter Weibull distribution are investigated. It is shown that under rather general conditions, both the reliability lower bound and the allowable life limit lower bound (often called a tolerance limit) have unique global minimums over a range of Beta. Hence lower bound solutions can be obtained without assuming or estimating Beta. The existence and uniqueness of these lower bounds are proven. Some real data examples are given to show how these lower bounds can be easily established and to demonstrate their practicality. The method developed here has proven to be extremely useful when using the Weibull distribution in analysis of no-failure or few-failures data. The results are applicable not only in the aerospace industry but anywhere that system reliabilities are high.

  17. Are satellite based rainfall estimates accurate enough for crop modelling under Sahelian climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramarohetra, J.; Sultan, B.

    2012-04-01

    Agriculture is considered as the most climate dependant human activity. In West Africa and especially in the sudano-sahelian zone, rain-fed agriculture - that represents 93% of cultivated areas and is the means of support of 70% of the active population - is highly vulnerable to precipitation variability. To better understand and anticipate climate impacts on agriculture, crop models - that estimate crop yield from climate information (e.g rainfall, temperature, insolation, humidity) - have been developed. These crop models are useful (i) in ex ante analysis to quantify the impact of different strategies implementation - crop management (e.g. choice of varieties, sowing date), crop insurance or medium-range weather forecast - on yields, (ii) for early warning systems and to (iii) assess future food security. Yet, the successful application of these models depends on the accuracy of their climatic drivers. In the sudano-sahelian zone , the quality of precipitation estimations is then a key factor to understand and anticipate climate impacts on agriculture via crop modelling and yield estimations. Different kinds of precipitation estimations can be used. Ground measurements have long-time series but an insufficient network density, a large proportion of missing values, delay in reporting time, and they have limited availability. An answer to these shortcomings may lie in the field of remote sensing that provides satellite-based precipitation estimations. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRFE) are not a direct measurement but rather an estimation of precipitation. Used as an input for crop models, it determines the performance of the simulated yield, hence SRFE require validation. The SARRAH crop model is used to model three different varieties of pearl millet (HKP, MTDO, Souna3) in a square degree centred on 13.5°N and 2.5°E, in Niger. Eight satellite-based rainfall daily products (PERSIANN, CMORPH, TRMM 3b42-RT, GSMAP MKV+, GPCP, TRMM 3b42v6, RFEv2 and

  18. Plant DNA Barcodes Can Accurately Estimate Species Richness in Poorly Known Floras

    PubMed Central

    Costion, Craig; Ford, Andrew; Cross, Hugh; Crayn, Darren; Harrington, Mark; Lowe, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    Background Widespread uptake of DNA barcoding technology for vascular plants has been slow due to the relatively poor resolution of species discrimination (∼70%) and low sequencing and amplification success of one of the two official barcoding loci, matK. Studies to date have mostly focused on finding a solution to these intrinsic limitations of the markers, rather than posing questions that can maximize the utility of DNA barcodes for plants with the current technology. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we test the ability of plant DNA barcodes using the two official barcoding loci, rbcLa and matK, plus an alternative barcoding locus, trnH-psbA, to estimate the species diversity of trees in a tropical rainforest plot. Species discrimination accuracy was similar to findings from previous studies but species richness estimation accuracy proved higher, up to 89%. All combinations which included the trnH-psbA locus performed better at both species discrimination and richness estimation than matK, which showed little enhanced species discriminatory power when concatenated with rbcLa. The utility of the trnH-psbA locus is limited however, by the occurrence of intraspecific variation observed in some angiosperm families to occur as an inversion that obscures the monophyly of species. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate for the first time, using a case study, the potential of plant DNA barcodes for the rapid estimation of species richness in taxonomically poorly known areas or cryptic populations revealing a powerful new tool for rapid biodiversity assessment. The combination of the rbcLa and trnH-psbA loci performed better for this purpose than any two-locus combination that included matK. We show that although DNA barcodes fail to discriminate all species of plants, new perspectives and methods on biodiversity value and quantification may overshadow some of these shortcomings by applying barcode data in new ways. PMID:22096501

  19. Caregiver's Country of Birth Is a Significant Determinant of Accurate Perception of Preschool-Age Children's Weight.

    PubMed

    Natale, Ruby; Uhlhorn, Susan B; Lopez-Mitnik, Gabriela; Camejo, Stephanie; Englebert, Nicole; Delamater, Alan M; Messiah, Sarah E

    2016-04-01

    Background One in four preschool-age children in the United States are currently overweight or obese. Previous studies have shown that caregivers of this age group often have difficulty accurately recognizing their child's weight status. The purpose of this study was to examine factors associated with accurate/inaccurate perception of child body mass index (BMI) among a multicultural sample of caregivers who were predominantly low-income and foreign-born.Methods A total of 980 caregivers (72% Hispanic, 71% born outside of the United States) of preschool-age children (N= 1,105) were asked if their child was normal weight, overweight, or obese. Answers were compared to actual child BMI percentile category via chi-square analysis. Logistic regression analysis was performed to assess predictors of accurate perception of child BMI percentile category.Results More than one third of preschoolers were either overweight (18.4%) or obese (16.5%). The majority (92%) of caregivers of an overweight/obese child inaccurately perceived that their child was in a normal BMI category. Overall, foreign-born caregivers were significantly less likely to accurately perceive their child's BMI percentile category versus U.S.-born caregivers (odds ratio [OR] = 0.65, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.48-0.88). Specifically, those born in South America (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.36-0.98), Central America/Mexico (OR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.41-0.85), and Caribbean Hispanic nations (OR = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.35-0.83) were significantly less likely to accurately perceive their child's BMI category versus U.S.-born caregivers.Conclusions The results of this study suggest that foreign-born caregivers of U.S. preschool-age overweight/obese children in particular do not accurately perceive their child's BMI status. Health care professionals serving foreign-born caregivers may consider additional culturally appropriate healthy weight counseling for these families. PMID:26304710

  20. Accurate estimation of retinal vessel width using bagged decision trees and an extended multiresolution Hermite model.

    PubMed

    Lupaşcu, Carmen Alina; Tegolo, Domenico; Trucco, Emanuele

    2013-12-01

    We present an algorithm estimating the width of retinal vessels in fundus camera images. The algorithm uses a novel parametric surface model of the cross-sectional intensities of vessels, and ensembles of bagged decision trees to estimate the local width from the parameters of the best-fit surface. We report comparative tests with REVIEW, currently the public database of reference for retinal width estimation, containing 16 images with 193 annotated vessel segments and 5066 profile points annotated manually by three independent experts. Comparative tests are reported also with our own set of 378 vessel widths selected sparsely in 38 images from the Tayside Scotland diabetic retinopathy screening programme and annotated manually by two clinicians. We obtain considerably better accuracies compared to leading methods in REVIEW tests and in Tayside tests. An important advantage of our method is its stability (success rate, i.e., meaningful measurement returned, of 100% on all REVIEW data sets and on the Tayside data set) compared to a variety of methods from the literature. We also find that results depend crucially on testing data and conditions, and discuss criteria for selecting a training set yielding optimal accuracy. PMID:24001930

  1. Compact and accurate linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using laguerre functions.

    PubMed

    Chon, K H; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

    1997-01-01

    A linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) identification algorithm is developed for modeling time series data. The algorithm uses Laguerre expansion of kernals (LEK) to estimate Volterra-Wiener kernals. However, instead of estimating linear and nonlinear system dynamics via moving average models, as is the case for the Volterra-Wiener analysis, we propose an ARMA model-based approach. The proposed algorithm is essentially the same as LEK, but this algorithm is extended to include past values of the output as well. Thus, all of the advantages associated with using the Laguerre function remain with our algorithm; but, by extending the algorithm to the linear and nonlinear ARMA model, a significant reduction in the number of Laguerre functions can be made, compared with the Volterra-Wiener approach. This translates into a more compact system representation and makes the physiological interpretation of higher order kernels easier. Furthermore, simulation results show better performance of the proposed approach in estimating the system dynamics than LEK in certain cases, and it remains effective in the presence of significant additive measurement noise. PMID:9236985

  2. Accurate estimation of sea surface temperatures using dissolution-corrected calibrations for Mg/Ca paleothermometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rosenthal, Yair; Lohmann, George P.

    2002-09-01

    Paired δ18O and Mg/Ca measurements on the same foraminiferal shells offer the ability to independently estimate sea surface temperature (SST) changes and assess their temporal relationship to the growth and decay of continental ice sheets. The accuracy of this method is confounded, however, by the absence of a quantitative method to correct Mg/Ca records for alteration by dissolution. Here we describe dissolution-corrected calibrations for Mg/Ca-paleothermometry in which the preexponent constant is a function of size-normalized shell weight: (1) for G. ruber (212-300 μm) (Mg/Ca)ruber = (0.025 wt + 0.11) e0.095T and (b) for G. sacculifer (355-425 μm) (Mg/Ca)sacc = (0.0032 wt + 0.181) e0.095T. The new calibrations improve the accuracy of SST estimates and are globally applicable. With this correction, eastern equatorial Atlantic SST during the Last Glacial Maximum is estimated to be 2.9° ± 0.4°C colder than today.

  3. Estimating parametric survival model parameters in gerontological aging studies: methodological problems and insights.

    PubMed

    Eakin, T; Shouman, R; Qi, Y; Liu, G; Witten, M

    1995-05-01

    Studies of the biology of aging (both experimental and evolutionary) frequently involve the estimation of parameters arising in various multi-parameter survival models such as the Gompertz or Weibull distribution. Standard parameter estimation methodologies, such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) or nonlinear regression (NLR), require knowledge of the actual life spans or their explicit algebraic equivalents in order to provide reliable parameter estimates. Many fundamental biological discussions and conclusions are highly dependent upon accurate estimates of these survival parameters (this has historically been the case in the study of genetic and environmental effects on longevity and the evolutionary biology of aging). In this article, we examine some of the issues arising in the estimation of gerontologic survival model parameters. We not only address issues of accuracy when the original life-span data are unknown, we consider the accuracy of the estimates even when the exact life spans are known. We examine these issues as applied to known experimental data on diet restriction and we fit the frequently used, two-parameter Gompertzian survival distribution to these experimental data. Consequences of methodological misuse are demonstrated and subsequently related to the values of the final parameter estimates and their associated errors. These results generalize to other multiparametric distributions such as the Weibull, Makeham, and logistic survival distributions. PMID:7743396

  4. Fetal age estimation using MSCT scans of deciduous tooth germs.

    PubMed

    Minier, Marie; Maret, Delphine; Dedouit, Fabrice; Vergnault, Marion; Mokrane, Fathima-Zohra; Rousseau, Hervé; Adalian, Pascal; Telmon, Norbert; Rougé, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of fetal age is an essential element in many fields such as anthropology, odontology, paleopathology, and forensic sciences. This study examines the correlation between fetal age, femoral diaphyseal length (considered as the gold standard), and deciduous tooth germs of fetuses aged 22 to 40 weeks amenorrhea (WA) based on computed tomography (MSCT) reconstructions. Qualitative and quantitative studies of femoral and deciduous tooth germ lengths were performed on 81 fetuses (39 females and 42 males). R software was used for statistical analyses. Intra-observer and inter-observer variabilities and the interclass correlation coefficient (ICC) were calculated. Correlation coefficients (R (2)) and linear regression equations were calculated. Intra- and inter-observer variabilities were very satisfactory (intra-observer ICC ≥ 0.96, inter-observer ICC ≥ 0.95). Femoral length was significantly correlated with age (R (2) = 0.9). The correlation coefficient between age and height, width, and dental volume was R (2) ≥ 0.73. Tooth germs were good indicators of fetal age. Our method appears to be reliable and reproducible, and the results of this study agreed with those of the literature. The dental formula provided a precise estimation of fetal age between 25 and 32 WA. Tooth germs were reliable indicators of fetal age, and multislice computed tomography was shown to be an innovative and reliable technology for this purpose. PMID:23828625

  5. A method for estimating gestational age of fetal remains based on long bone lengths.

    PubMed

    Carneiro, Cristiana; Curate, Francisco; Cunha, Eugénia

    2016-09-01

    The estimation of gestational age (GA) in fetal human remains is important in forensic settings, particularly to assess fetal viability, in addition to often being the only biological profile parameter that can be assessed with some accuracy for non-adults. The length of long bone diaphysis is one of the most frequently used methods for fetal age estimation. The main objective of this study was to present a simple and objective method for estimating GA based on the measurements of the diaphysis of the femur, tibia, fibula, humerus, ulna, and radius. Conventional least squares regression equations (classical and inverse calibration approaches) and quick reference tables were generated. A supplementary objective was to compare the performance of the new formulae against previously published models. The sample comprised 257 fetuses (136 females and 121 males) with known GA (between 12 and 40 weeks) and was selected based on clinical and pathological information. All measurements were performed on radiographic images acquired in anonymous clinical autopsy records from spontaneous and therapeutic abortions in two Portuguese hospitals. The proposed technique is straightforward and reproducible. The models for the GA estimation are exceedingly accurate and unbiased. Comparisons between inverse and classical calibration show that both perform exceptionally well, with high accuracy and low bias. Also, the newly developed equations generally outperform earlier methods of GA estimation in forensic contexts. Quick reference tables for each long bone are now available. The obtained models for the estimation of gestational age are of great applicability in forensic contexts. PMID:27251047

  6. Higher Accurate Estimation of Axial and Bending Stiffnesses of Plates Clamped by Bolts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Naruse, Tomohiro; Shibutani, Yoji

    Equivalent stiffness of clamped plates should be prescribed not only to evaluate the strength of bolted joints by the scheme of “joint diagram” but also to make structural analyses for practical structures with many bolted joints. We estimated the axial stiffness and bending stiffness of clamped plates by using Finite Element (FE) analyses while taking the contact condition on bearing surfaces and between the plates into account. The FE models were constructed for bolted joints tightened with M8, 10, 12 and 16 bolts and plate thicknesses of 3.2, 4.5, 6.0 and 9.0 mm, and the axial and bending compliances were precisely evaluated. These compliances of clamped plates were compared with those from VDI 2230 (2003) code, in which the equivalent conical compressive stress field in the plate has been assumed. The code gives larger axial stiffness for 11% and larger bending stiffness for 22%, and it cannot apply to the clamped plates with different thickness. Thus the code shall give lower bolt stress (unsafe estimation). We modified the vertical angle tangent, tanφ, of the equivalent conical by adding a term of the logarithm of thickness ratio t1/t2 and by fitting to the analysis results. The modified tanφ can estimate the axial compliance with the error from -1.5% to 6.8% and the bending compliance with the error from -6.5% to 10%. Furthermore, the modified tanφ can take the thickness difference into consideration.

  7. Relationship Between Mitochondrial DNA Mutations and Aging. Estimation of Age-at-death.

    PubMed

    Zapico, Sara C; Ubelaker, Douglas H

    2016-04-01

    Some studies have pointed to the relationship between mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) mutations and age in different tissues, which are potentially interesting in aging research and in forensic identification because they could help to improve the estimation of age-at-death. The present study aims to evaluate the mutations in mtDNA from dentin and pulp and their relation with age. Healthy erupted third molars were extracted from individuals from two Spanish populations, aged 20-70. When analyzing the amplification of hypervariable region 2 of the mtDNA by real-time polymerase chain reaction, a negative strong linear correlation was found between the mtDNA amplification and age in dentin from both populations. In contrast, a significant correlation between mtDNA amplification and age in pulp was not discovered, probably due to the majority of the mitochondria are placed in dentin. A difference in mtDNA damage between these two populations was also detected, indicating the role of ancestry as a component. The findings from this research enrich the current studies related to aging and mitochondrial damage and provide a new quantitative tool for estimating the age-at-death that, in combination with traditional age markers, could improve identification accuracy in forensic cases. PMID:26286606

  8. Accurate estimation of airborne ultrasonic time-of-flight for overlapping echoes.

    PubMed

    Sarabia, Esther G; Llata, Jose R; Robla, Sandra; Torre-Ferrero, Carlos; Oria, Juan P

    2013-01-01

    In this work, an analysis of the transmission of ultrasonic signals generated by piezoelectric sensors for air applications is presented. Based on this analysis, an ultrasonic response model is obtained for its application to the recognition of objects and structured environments for navigation by autonomous mobile robots. This model enables the analysis of the ultrasonic response that is generated using a pair of sensors in transmitter-receiver configuration using the pulse-echo technique. This is very interesting for recognizing surfaces that simultaneously generate a multiple echo response. This model takes into account the effect of the radiation pattern, the resonant frequency of the sensor, the number of cycles of the excitation pulse, the dynamics of the sensor and the attenuation with distance in the medium. This model has been developed, programmed and verified through a battery of experimental tests. Using this model a new procedure for obtaining accurate time of flight is proposed. This new method is compared with traditional ones, such as threshold or correlation, to highlight its advantages and drawbacks. Finally the advantages of this method are demonstrated for calculating multiple times of flight when the echo is formed by several overlapping echoes. PMID:24284774

  9. Accurate Estimation of Airborne Ultrasonic Time-of-Flight for Overlapping Echoes

    PubMed Central

    Sarabia, Esther G.; Llata, Jose R.; Robla, Sandra; Torre-Ferrero, Carlos; Oria, Juan P.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, an analysis of the transmission of ultrasonic signals generated by piezoelectric sensors for air applications is presented. Based on this analysis, an ultrasonic response model is obtained for its application to the recognition of objects and structured environments for navigation by autonomous mobile robots. This model enables the analysis of the ultrasonic response that is generated using a pair of sensors in transmitter-receiver configuration using the pulse-echo technique. This is very interesting for recognizing surfaces that simultaneously generate a multiple echo response. This model takes into account the effect of the radiation pattern, the resonant frequency of the sensor, the number of cycles of the excitation pulse, the dynamics of the sensor and the attenuation with distance in the medium. This model has been developed, programmed and verified through a battery of experimental tests. Using this model a new procedure for obtaining accurate time of flight is proposed. This new method is compared with traditional ones, such as threshold or correlation, to highlight its advantages and drawbacks. Finally the advantages of this method are demonstrated for calculating multiple times of flight when the echo is formed by several overlapping echoes. PMID:24284774

  10. Estimating carbon stocks based on forest volume-age relationship

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hangnan, Y.; Lee, W.; Son, Y.; Kwak, D.; Nam, K.; Moonil, K.; Taesung, K.

    2012-12-01

    This research attempted to estimate potential change of forest carbon stocks between 2010 and 2110 in South Korea, using the forest cover map and National Forest Inventory (NFI) data. Allometric functions (logistic regression models) of volume-age relationships were developed to estimate carbon stock change during upcoming 100 years for Pinus densiflora, Pinus koraiensis, Pinus rigida, Larix kaempferi,and Quercus spp. The current forest volume was estimated with the developed regression model and 4th forest cover map. The future volume was predicted by developed volume-age models with adding n years to current age. As a result, we found that the total forest volume would increase from 126.89 m^3/ha to 246.61 m^3/ha and the carbon stocks would increase from 90.55 Mg C ha^(-1) to 174.62 Mg C ha^(-1) during 100 years when current forest remains unchanged. The carbon stocks would increase by approximately 0.84 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1), which has high value if considering other northern countries' (Canada, Russia, China) -0.10 ~ 0.28 Mg C ha^(-1) yr^(-1) in pervious study. This can be attributed to the fact that mixed forest and bamboo forest in this study did not considered. Moreover, it must be influenced by that the change of carbon stocks was estimated without the consideration of mortality, thinning, and tree species' change in this study. ;

  11. A non-destructive dental method for age estimation.

    PubMed

    Kvaal, S; Solheim, T

    1994-06-01

    Dental radiographs have rarely been used in dental age estimation methods for adults and the aim of this investigation was to derive formulae for age calculation based on measurements of teeth and their radiographs. Age-related changes were studied in 452 extracted, unsectioned incisors, canines and premolars. The length of the apical translucent zone and extent of the periodontal retraction were measured on the teeth while the pulp length and width as well as root length and width were measured on the radiographs and the ratios between the root and pulp measurements calculated. For all types of teeth significant, negative Pearson's correlation coefficients were found between age and the ratios between the pulp and the root width. In this study also, the correlation between age and the length of the apical translucent zone was weaker than expected. The periodontal retraction was significantly correlated with age in maxillary premolars alone. Multiple regression analyses showed inclusion of the ratio between the measurements of the pulp and the root on the radiographs for all teeth; the length of the apical translucency in five types; and periodontal retraction in only three types of teeth. The correlation coefficients ranged from r = 0.48 to r = 0.90 between the chronological and the calculated age using the formulae from this multiple regression study. The strongest coefficients were for premolars. These formulae may be recommended for use in odontological age estimations in forensic and archaeological cases where teeth are loose or can be extracted and where it is important that the teeth are not sectioned. PMID:9227083

  12. Voxel-based registration of simulated and real patient CBCT data for accurate dental implant pose estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira, António H. J.; Queirós, Sandro; Morais, Pedro; Rodrigues, Nuno F.; Correia, André Ricardo; Fernandes, Valter; Pinho, A. C. M.; Fonseca, Jaime C.; Vilaça, João. L.

    2015-03-01

    The success of dental implant-supported prosthesis is directly linked to the accuracy obtained during implant's pose estimation (position and orientation). Although traditional impression techniques and recent digital acquisition methods are acceptably accurate, a simultaneously fast, accurate and operator-independent methodology is still lacking. Hereto, an image-based framework is proposed to estimate the patient-specific implant's pose using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) and prior knowledge of implanted model. The pose estimation is accomplished in a threestep approach: (1) a region-of-interest is extracted from the CBCT data using 2 operator-defined points at the implant's main axis; (2) a simulated CBCT volume of the known implanted model is generated through Feldkamp-Davis-Kress reconstruction and coarsely aligned to the defined axis; and (3) a voxel-based rigid registration is performed to optimally align both patient and simulated CBCT data, extracting the implant's pose from the optimal transformation. Three experiments were performed to evaluate the framework: (1) an in silico study using 48 implants distributed through 12 tridimensional synthetic mandibular models; (2) an in vitro study using an artificial mandible with 2 dental implants acquired with an i-CAT system; and (3) two clinical case studies. The results shown positional errors of 67+/-34μm and 108μm, and angular misfits of 0.15+/-0.08° and 1.4°, for experiment 1 and 2, respectively. Moreover, in experiment 3, visual assessment of clinical data results shown a coherent alignment of the reference implant. Overall, a novel image-based framework for implants' pose estimation from CBCT data was proposed, showing accurate results in agreement with dental prosthesis modelling requirements.

  13. Estimating the Age Distribution of Oceanic Dissolved Organic Carbon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Follett, C. L.; Forney, D. C.; Repeta, D.; Rothman, D.

    2010-12-01

    Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is a large, ubiquitous component of open ocean water at all depths and impacts atmospheric carbon dioxide levels at both short and long timescales. It is currently believed that oceanic DOC contains a multi-thousand-year-old refractory deep-water component which is mixed with a young labile component in surface waters. Unfortunately, the only evidence for this comes from a few isolated depth profiles of both DOC concentration and bulk radiocarbon. Although the profile data is consistent with a two-component mixing model, directly separating the two components has proven to be a challenge. We explore the validity of the two component mixing model by directly estimating the age distribution of oceanic DOC. The two-component model suggests that the age distribution is composed of two distinct peaks. In order to obtain an estimate of the age distribution we first record changes in both concentration and percent radiocarbon as a sample is oxidized under ultra-violet radiation [1]. We formulate a mathematical model relating the age distribution to these changes, assuming that they result from components of different radiocarbon age and UV-reactivity. This allows us to numerically invert the data and estimate the age distribution. We apply our procedure to DOC samples collected from three distinct depths (50, 500, and 2000 meters) in the north-central Pacific Ocean. [1] S.R. Beaupre, E.R.M. Druffel, and S. Griffin. A low-blank photochemical extraction system for concentration and isotopic analyses of marine dissolved organic carbon. Limnol. Oceanogr. Methods, 5:174-184, 2007.

  14. Psychophysical estimation of speed discrimination. II. Aging effects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Raghuram, Aparna; Lakshminarayanan, Vasudevan; Khanna, Ritu

    2005-10-01

    We studied the effects of aging on a speed discrimination task using a pair of first-order drifting luminance gratings. Two reference speeds of 2 and 8 deg/s were presented at stimulus durations of 500 ms and 1000 ms. The choice of stimulus parameters, etc., was determined in preliminary experiments and described in Part I. Thresholds were estimated using a two-alternative-forced-choice staircase methodology. Data were collected from 16 younger subjects (mean age 24 years) and 17 older subjects (mean age 71 years). Results showed that thresholds for speed discrimination were higher for the older age group. This was especially true at stimulus duration of 500 ms for both slower and faster speeds. This could be attributed to differences in temporal integration of speed with age. Visual acuity and contrast sensitivity were not statistically observed to mediate age differences in the speed discrimination thresholds. Gender differences were observed in the older age group, with older women having higher thresholds.

  15. Human Age Estimation Based on Locality and Ordinal Information.

    PubMed

    Li, Changsheng; Liu, Qingshan; Dong, Weishan; Zhu, Xiaobin; Liu, Jing; Lu, Hanqing

    2015-11-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel feature selection-based method for facial age estimation. The face aging is a typical temporal process, and facial images should have certain ordinal patterns in the aging feature space. From the geometrical perspective, a facial image can be usually seen as sampled from a low-dimensional manifold embedded in the original high-dimensional feature space. Thus, we first measure the energy of each feature in preserving the underlying local structure information and the ordinal information of the facial images, respectively, and then we intend to learn a low-dimensional aging representation that can maximally preserve both kinds of information. To further improve the performance, we try to eliminate the redundant local information and ordinal information as much as possible by minimizing nonlinear correlation and rank correlation among features. Finally, we formulate all these issues into a unified optimization problem, which is similar to linear discriminant analysis in format. Since it is expensive to collect the labeled facial aging images in practice, we extend the proposed supervised method to a semi-supervised learning mode including the semi-supervised feature selection method and the semi-supervised age prediction algorithm. Extensive experiments are conducted on the FACES dataset, the Images of Groups dataset, and the FG-NET aging dataset to show the power of the proposed algorithms, compared to the state-of-the-arts. PMID:26470062

  16. An Energy-Efficient Strategy for Accurate Distance Estimation in Wireless Sensor Networks

    PubMed Central

    Tarrío, Paula; Bernardos, Ana M.; Casar, José R.

    2012-01-01

    In line with recent research efforts made to conceive energy saving protocols and algorithms and power sensitive network architectures, in this paper we propose a transmission strategy to minimize the energy consumption in a sensor network when using a localization technique based on the measurement of the strength (RSS) or the time of arrival (TOA) of the received signal. In particular, we find the transmission power and the packet transmission rate that jointly minimize the total consumed energy, while ensuring at the same time a desired accuracy in the RSS or TOA measurements. We also propose some corrections to these theoretical results to take into account the effects of shadowing and packet loss in the propagation channel. The proposed strategy is shown to be effective in realistic scenarios providing energy savings with respect to other transmission strategies, and also guaranteeing a given accuracy in the distance estimations, which will serve to guarantee a desired accuracy in the localization result. PMID:23202218

  17. Application OF LIBS To Estimate The Age Of Broiler Breeders

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salam, Z. Abdel; Harith, M. A.

    2011-09-01

    Laser Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) is a well-known spectrochemical elemental analysis technique. In our investigations of the LIBS spectra it has been found that there is a remarkable correlation between the ionic to atomic spectral lines emission ratio and the surface hardness of eggshell for two Different Broiler Breeder at different age. The proposed technique has been applied successfully in poultry science to estimate the age of broiler breeders by measuring the surface hardness of their eggshell. The experiments have been performed on two different strains, Arbor Acres plus (AAP) and Hubard Classic (HC), and the results were satisfactory.

  18. [Research on maize multispectral image accurate segmentation and chlorophyll index estimation].

    PubMed

    Wu, Qian; Sun, Hong; Li, Min-zan; Song, Yuan-yuan; Zhang, Yan-e

    2015-01-01

    In order to rapidly acquire maize growing information in the field, a non-destructive method of maize chlorophyll content index measurement was conducted based on multi-spectral imaging technique and imaging processing technology. The experiment was conducted at Yangling in Shaanxi province of China and the crop was Zheng-dan 958 planted in about 1 000 m X 600 m experiment field. Firstly, a 2-CCD multi-spectral image monitoring system was available to acquire the canopy images. The system was based on a dichroic prism, allowing precise separation of the visible (Blue (B), Green (G), Red (R): 400-700 nm) and near-infrared (NIR, 760-1 000 nm) band. The multispectral images were output as RGB and NIR images via the system vertically fixed to the ground with vertical distance of 2 m and angular field of 50°. SPAD index of each sample was'measured synchronously to show the chlorophyll content index. Secondly, after the image smoothing using adaptive smooth filtering algorithm, the NIR maize image was selected to segment the maize leaves from background, because there was a big difference showed in gray histogram between plant and soil background. The NIR image segmentation algorithm was conducted following steps of preliminary and accuracy segmentation: (1) The results of OTSU image segmentation method and the variable threshold algorithm were discussed. It was revealed that the latter was better one in corn plant and weed segmentation. As a result, the variable threshold algorithm based on local statistics was selected for the preliminary image segmentation. The expansion and corrosion were used to optimize the segmented image. (2) The region labeling algorithm was used to segment corn plants from soil and weed background with an accuracy of 95. 59 %. And then, the multi-spectral image of maize canopy was accurately segmented in R, G and B band separately. Thirdly, the image parameters were abstracted based on the segmented visible and NIR images. The average gray

  19. The Prevalence of Age-Related Eye Diseases and Visual Impairment in Aging: Current Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Klein, Ronald; Klein, Barbara E. K.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. To examine prevalence of five age-related eye conditions (age-related cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, diabetic retinopathy [DR], and visual impairment) in the United States. Methods. Review of published scientific articles and unpublished research findings. Results. Cataract, AMD, open-angle glaucoma, DR, and visual impairment prevalences are high in four different studies of these conditions, especially in people over 75 years of age. There are disparities among racial/ethnic groups with higher age-specific prevalence of DR, open-angle glaucoma, and visual impairment in Hispanics and blacks compared with whites, higher prevalence of age-related cataract in whites compared with blacks, and higher prevalence of late AMD in whites compared with Hispanics and blacks. The estimates are based on old data and do not reflect recent changes in the distribution of age and race/ethnicity in the United States population. There are no epidemiologic estimates of prevalence for many visually-impairing conditions. Conclusions. Ongoing prevalence surveys designed to provide reliable estimates of visual impairment, AMD, age-related cataract, open-angle glaucoma, and DR are needed. It is important to collect objective data on these and other conditions that affect vision and quality of life in order to plan for health care needs and identify areas for further research. PMID:24335069

  20. Age estimation in Indian children and adolescents in the NCR region of Haryana: A comparative study

    PubMed Central

    Gupta, Swati; Mehendiratta, Monica; Rehani, Shweta; Kumra, Madhumani; Nagpal, Ruchi; Gupta, Ramakant

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Age estimation is a preliminary step in the identification of an individual. It is a crucial and often most critical step for forensic experts. The assessment has been standardized utilizing common dental diagnostic x-rays, but most such age-estimating systems are European population-based and their applicability has not been determined in the context of the Indian population. Aims and Objectives: To assess the applicability and to compare the methods of dental age estimation by Demirjian's method and the same method as modified by Willems (i.e. the Willems method) in Indian children of the National Capital Region (NCR). Also, to find a correlation among skeletal maturity using the Cervical vertebrae maturation index (CVMI), dental maturity, and chronological age in the same population. Materials and Methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted using dental radiographs of 70 orthodontic patients (37 males, 33 females) in the age range 9-16 years selected by simple random sampling. pantomogram were used to estimate dental age by Demirjian's method and the Willems method using their scoring tables. Lateral cephalograms were used to estimate skeletal maturity using CVMI. The latter was compared with Demirjian's stage for mandibular left second molar. Results: Overestimation of age among males by 0.856 years and 0.496 years was found by Demirjian's and the Willems methods, respectively. Among females, both the methods underestimated the age by 0.31 years and 0.45 years, respectively. Demirjian's stage G corresponded to CVMI stage 3 in males and stage 2 in females. Conclusion: In our study, the Willems method has proved to be more accurate for age estimation among Indian males, and Demirjian's method for Indian females. A statistically significant association appeared between Demirjian's stages and CVMI among both males and females. Our study recommends the derivation of a regression formula by studying a larger section of the Indian population

  1. Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

    2009-06-01

    When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

  2. Accurate Estimation of Protein Folding and Unfolding Times: Beyond Markov State Models.

    PubMed

    Suárez, Ernesto; Adelman, Joshua L; Zuckerman, Daniel M

    2016-08-01

    Because standard molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are unable to access time scales of interest in complex biomolecular systems, it is common to "stitch together" information from multiple shorter trajectories using approximate Markov state model (MSM) analysis. However, MSMs may require significant tuning and can yield biased results. Here, by analyzing some of the longest protein MD data sets available (>100 μs per protein), we show that estimators constructed based on exact non-Markovian (NM) principles can yield significantly improved mean first-passage times (MFPTs) for protein folding and unfolding. In some cases, MSM bias of more than an order of magnitude can be corrected when identical trajectory data are reanalyzed by non-Markovian approaches. The NM analysis includes "history" information, higher order time correlations compared to MSMs, that is available in every MD trajectory. The NM strategy is insensitive to fine details of the states used and works well when a fine time-discretization (i.e., small "lag time") is used. PMID:27340835

  3. Thermal Conductivities in Solids from First Principles: Accurate Computations and Rapid Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carbogno, Christian; Scheffler, Matthias

    In spite of significant research efforts, a first-principles determination of the thermal conductivity κ at high temperatures has remained elusive. Boltzmann transport techniques that account for anharmonicity perturbatively become inaccurate under such conditions. Ab initio molecular dynamics (MD) techniques using the Green-Kubo (GK) formalism capture the full anharmonicity, but can become prohibitively costly to converge in time and size. We developed a formalism that accelerates such GK simulations by several orders of magnitude and that thus enables its application within the limited time and length scales accessible in ab initio MD. For this purpose, we determine the effective harmonic potential occurring during the MD, the associated temperature-dependent phonon properties and lifetimes. Interpolation in reciprocal and frequency space then allows to extrapolate to the macroscopic scale. For both force-field and ab initio MD, we validate this approach by computing κ for Si and ZrO2, two materials known for their particularly harmonic and anharmonic character. Eventually, we demonstrate how these techniques facilitate reasonable estimates of κ from existing MD calculations at virtually no additional computational cost.

  4. Influence of age in estimating maximal oxygen uptake

    PubMed Central

    de Souza e Silva, Christina G; Franklin, Barry A; Forman, Daniel E; Araújo, Claudio Gil S

    2016-01-01

    Objective To assess the influence of age on the error of estimate (EE) of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) using sex and population specific-equations in cycle ergometer exercise testing, since estimated VO2 max is associated with a substantial EE, often exceeding 20%, possibly due to intrinsic variability of mechanical efficiency. Methods 1850 adults (68% men), aged 18 to 91 years, underwent maximal cycle ergometer cardiopulmonary exercise testing. Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) was assessed relative to sex and age [younger (18 to 35 years), middle-aged (36 to 60 years) and older (> 60 years)]. VO2max [mL·(kg·min)−1] was directly measured by assessment of gas exchange and estimated using sex and population specific-equations. Measured and estimated values of VO2max and related EE were compared among the three age- and sex-specific groups. Results Directly measured VO2max of men and women were 29.5 ± 10.5 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 24.2 ± 9.0 mL·(kg·min)−1 (P < 0.01). EE [mL·(kg·min)−1] and percent errors (%E) for men and women had similar values, 0.5 ± 3.2 and 0.4 ± 2.9 mL·(kg·min)−1, and −0.8 ± 13.1% and −1.7 ± 15.4% (P > 0.05), respectively. EE and %E for each age-group were, respectively, for men: younger = 1.9 ± 4.1 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 3.8 ± 10.5%, middle-aged = 0.6 ± 3.1 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 0.4 ± 10.3%, older = −0.2 ± 2.7 mL·(kg·min)−1 and −4.2 ± 16.6% (P < 0.01); and for women: younger = 1.2 ± 3.1 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 2.7 ± 10.0%, middle-aged = 0.7 ± 2.8 mL·(kg·min)−1 and 0.5 ± 11.1%, older = -0.8 ± 2.3 mL·(kg·min)−1 and −9.5 ± 22.4% (P < 0.01). Conclusion VO2max were underestimated in younger age-groups and were overestimated in older age groups. Age significantly influences the magnitude of the EE of VO2max in both men and women and should be considered when CRF is estimated using population specific equations, rather than directly measured. PMID:27168737

  5. ProViDE: A software tool for accurate estimation of viral diversity in metagenomic samples

    PubMed Central

    Ghosh, Tarini Shankar; Mohammed, Monzoorul Haque; Komanduri, Dinakar; Mande, Sharmila Shekhar

    2011-01-01

    Given the absence of universal marker genes in the viral kingdom, researchers typically use BLAST (with stringent E-values) for taxonomic classification of viral metagenomic sequences. Since majority of metagenomic sequences originate from hitherto unknown viral groups, using stringent e-values results in most sequences remaining unclassified. Furthermore, using less stringent e-values results in a high number of incorrect taxonomic assignments. The SOrt-ITEMS algorithm provides an approach to address the above issues. Based on alignment parameters, SOrt-ITEMS follows an elaborate work-flow for assigning reads originating from hitherto unknown archaeal/bacterial genomes. In SOrt-ITEMS, alignment parameter thresholds were generated by observing patterns of sequence divergence within and across various taxonomic groups belonging to bacterial and archaeal kingdoms. However, many taxonomic groups within the viral kingdom lack a typical Linnean-like taxonomic hierarchy. In this paper, we present ProViDE (Program for Viral Diversity Estimation), an algorithm that uses a customized set of alignment parameter thresholds, specifically suited for viral metagenomic sequences. These thresholds capture the pattern of sequence divergence and the non-uniform taxonomic hierarchy observed within/across various taxonomic groups of the viral kingdom. Validation results indicate that the percentage of ‘correct’ assignments by ProViDE is around 1.7 to 3 times higher than that by the widely used similarity based method MEGAN. The misclassification rate of ProViDE is around 3 to 19% (as compared to 5 to 42% by MEGAN) indicating significantly better assignment accuracy. ProViDE software and a supplementary file (containing supplementary figures and tables referred to in this article) is available for download from http://metagenomics.atc.tcs.com/binning/ProViDE/ PMID:21544173

  6. A new method based on the subpixel Gaussian model for accurate estimation of asteroid coordinates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Savanevych, V. E.; Briukhovetskyi, O. B.; Sokovikova, N. S.; Bezkrovny, M. M.; Vavilova, I. B.; Ivashchenko, Yu. M.; Elenin, L. V.; Khlamov, S. V.; Movsesian, Ia. S.; Dashkova, A. M.; Pogorelov, A. V.

    2015-08-01

    We describe a new iteration method to estimate asteroid coordinates, based on a subpixel Gaussian model of the discrete object image. The method operates by continuous parameters (asteroid coordinates) in a discrete observational space (the set of pixel potentials) of the CCD frame. In this model, the kind of coordinate distribution of the photons hitting a pixel of the CCD frame is known a priori, while the associated parameters are determined from a real digital object image. The method that is developed, which is flexible in adapting to any form of object image, has a high measurement accuracy along with a low calculating complexity, due to the maximum-likelihood procedure that is implemented to obtain the best fit instead of a least-squares method and Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for minimization of the quadratic form. Since 2010, the method has been tested as the basis of our Collection Light Technology (COLITEC) software, which has been installed at several observatories across the world with the aim of the automatic discovery of asteroids and comets in sets of CCD frames. As a result, four comets (C/2010 X1 (Elenin), P/2011 NO1(Elenin), C/2012 S1 (ISON) and P/2013 V3 (Nevski)) as well as more than 1500 small Solar system bodies (including five near-Earth objects (NEOs), 21 Trojan asteroids of Jupiter and one Centaur object) have been discovered. We discuss these results, which allowed us to compare the accuracy parameters of the new method and confirm its efficiency. In 2014, the COLITEC software was recommended to all members of the Gaia-FUN-SSO network for analysing observations as a tool to detect faint moving objects in frames.

  7. Dental radiographic indicators, a key to age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Panchbhai, AS

    2011-01-01

    Objective The present review article is aimed at describing the radiological methods utilized for human age identification. Methods The application and importance of radiological methods in human age assessment was discussed through the literature survey. Results Following a literature search, 46 articles were included in the study and the relevant information is depicted in the article. Dental tissue is often preserved indefinitely after death. Implementation of radiography is based on the assessment of the extent of calcification of teeth and in turn the degree of formation of crown and root structures, along with the sequence and the stages of eruption. Several radiological techniques can be used to assist in both individual and general identification, including determination of gender, ethnic group and age. The radiographic method is a simpler and cheaper method of age identification compared with histological and biochemical methods. Radiographic and tomographic images have become an essential aid for human identification in forensic dentistry, particularly with the refinement of techniques and the incorporation of information technology resources. Conclusion Based on an appropriate knowledge of the available methods, forensic dentists can choose the most appropriate since the validity of age estimation crucially depends on the method used and its proper application. The multifactorial approach will lead to optimum age assessment. The legal requirements also have to be considered. PMID:21493876

  8. Age estimation from physiological changes of teeth: A reliable age marker?

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Nishant; Grover, Neeraj; Puri, Navin; Singh, Sanjeet; Arora, Swati

    2014-01-01

    Background: Age is an essential factor in establishing the identity of a person. Teeth are one of the most durable and resilient part of skeleton. Gustafson (1950) suggested the use of six retrogressive dental changes that are seen with increasing age. Aim: The aim of the study was to evaluate the results and to check the reliability of modified Gustafson's method for determining the age of an individual. Materials and Methods: Total 70 patients in the age group of 20-65 years, undergoing extraction were included in this present work. The ground sections of extracted teeth were prepared and examined under the microscope. Modified Gustafson's criteria were used for the estimation of age. Degree of attrition, root translucency, secondary dentin deposition, cementum apposition, and root resorption were measured. A linear regression formula was obtained using different statistical equations in a sample of 70 patients. Results: The mean age difference of total 70 cases studied was ±2.64 years. Difference of actual and calculated age was significant and was observed at 5% level of significance, that is, t-cal > t-tab (t-cal = 7.72). P < 0.05, indicates that the results were statistically significant. Conclusion: The present study concludes that Gustafson's method is a reliable method for age estimation with some proposed modifications. PMID:25125919

  9. Fetal age estimation using MSCT scans of the mandible.

    PubMed

    Minier, Marie; Dedouit, Fabrice; Maret, Delphine; Vergnault, Marion; Mokrane, Fathima-Zohra; Rousseau, Hervé; Adalian, Pascal; Telmon, Norbert; Rougé, Daniel

    2014-05-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine a documented fetal collection, to carry out morphometric analysis of femoral length and of the mandible, and to develop diagnostic standards for estimating fetal age at death based on multislice computed tomography (MSCT) reconstructions. The sample was composed of 81 fetuses, whose ages were recorded in weeks of amenorrhea (WA) between 20 to 40 WA. The measurements made were femoral length (FL) and six distances and four angles of the mandible. Femoral length was measured in 81 fetuses (39 females and 42 males). Morphometric study of the mandible was carried out in 65 fetuses (31 females and 34 males), as the mandible was missing in 16 fetuses. R software was used for statistical analyses. Coefficient correlation (R(2)) and linear regression formulas were calculated. Intra-observer and inter-observer variabilities were very satisfactory (intra-class correlation coefficient ≥0.95). Our method appears to be reliable and reproducible. Femoral length was most strongly correlated with age (R(2) = 0.9). The measurement of six distances and four mandible angles from four landmark positions showed a correlation similar to the femoral length correlation (R(2) ≥ 0.72). The results of this study agreed with those of the literature. We conclude that the mandible is a reliable indicator for estimating fetal age at death. Moreover, MSCT has been shown to be an innovative and reliable technology for this purpose. PMID:24213737

  10. Figure of merit of diamond power devices based on accurately estimated impact ionization processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiraiwa, Atsushi; Kawarada, Hiroshi

    2013-07-01

    Although a high breakdown voltage or field is considered as a major advantage of diamond, there has been a large difference in breakdown voltages or fields of diamond devices in literature. Most of these apparently contradictory results did not correctly reflect material properties because of specific device designs, such as punch-through structure and insufficient edge termination. Once these data were removed, the remaining few results, including a record-high breakdown field of 20 MV/cm, were theoretically reproduced, exactly calculating ionization integrals based on the ionization coefficients that were obtained after compensating for possible errors involved in reported theoretical values. In this compensation, we newly developed a method for extracting an ionization coefficient from an arbitrary relationship between breakdown voltage and doping density in the Chynoweth's framework. The breakdown field of diamond was estimated to depend on the doping density more than other materials, and accordingly required to be compared at the same doping density. The figure of merit (FOM) of diamond devices, obtained using these breakdown data, was comparable to the FOMs of 4H-SiC and Wurtzite-GaN devices at room temperature, but was projected to be larger than the latter by more than one order of magnitude at higher temperatures about 300 °C. Considering the relatively undeveloped state of diamond technology, there is room for further enhancement of the diamond FOM, improving breakdown voltage and mobility. Through these investigations, junction breakdown was found to be initiated by electrons or holes in a p--type or n--type drift layer, respectively. The breakdown voltages in the two types of drift layers differed from each other in a strict sense but were practically the same. Hence, we do not need to care about the conduction type of drift layers, but should rather exactly calculate the ionization integral without approximating ionization coefficients by a power

  11. Wind effect on PV module temperature: Analysis of different techniques for an accurate estimation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwingshackl, Clemens; Petitta, Marcello; Ernst Wagner, Jochen; Belluardo, Giorgio; Moser, David; Castelli, Mariapina; Zebisch, Marc; Tetzlaff, Anke

    2013-04-01

    temperature estimation using meteorological parameters. References: [1] Skoplaki, E. et al., 2008: A simple correlation for the operating temperature of photovoltaic modules of arbitrary mounting, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells 92, 1393-1402 [2] Skoplaki, E. et al., 2008: Operating temperature of photovoltaic modules: A survey of pertinent correlations, Renewable Energy 34, 23-29 [3] Koehl, M. et al., 2011: Modeling of the nominal operating cell temperature based on outdoor weathering, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells 95, 1638-1646 [4] Mattei, M. et al., 2005: Calculation of the polycrystalline PV module temperature using a simple method of energy balance, Renewable Energy 31, 553-567 [5] Kurtz, S. et al.: Evaluation of high-temperature exposure of rack-mounted photovoltaic modules

  12. Age estimation among Brazilians: Younger or older than 18?

    PubMed

    Deitos, Alexandre Raphael; Costa, Claudio; Michel-Crosato, Edgard; Galić, Ivan; Cameriere, Roberto; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye

    2015-07-01

    The age estimation of living or dead individuals is an important part of forensic science because it can be used in various situations, including mass disasters, or for civil or criminal reasons, such as adoption or asylum. Teeth play a major role in this context because they are more resistant than bones in extreme environmental conditions and their development is hardly affected by exogenous or endogenous factors. Because the third molars (3rdM) are still in development from the age of 14, they are useful for determining whether an individual has reached the legal age of 18 years. This study aims to verify the method of Cameriere et al. (2008) in Brazil to discriminate whether an individual is under or over 18 years from the maturity index of the 3rdM (I3m). The analysis of 444 panoramic radiographs resulted in a sensitivity of 78.3%, a specificity of 85.1% and a correct classification of 87%. Significant differences in sexual dimorphism in the early mineralization of males were found only for the average age with I3m ≥ 0.08, except for the range (0.7, 0.9). Due to the high miscegenation ratio of the Brazilian population the ancestry was not one of the studied variables. The method is suitable for estimating adulthood for forensic purposes in Brazil, although it must be applied carefully and judiciously. We recommend a combination of several methods that are available to increase accuracy as well as the establishment of different parameters that are likely to determine whether a person is more or less than 18 years of age, depending on the different legal requirements, whether civil or criminal. PMID:26048509

  13. Toward an Accurate and Inexpensive Estimation of CCSD(T)/CBS Binding Energies of Large Water Clusters.

    PubMed

    Sahu, Nityananda; Singh, Gurmeet; Nandi, Apurba; Gadre, Shridhar R

    2016-07-21

    Owing to the steep scaling behavior, highly accurate CCSD(T) calculations, the contemporary gold standard of quantum chemistry, are prohibitively difficult for moderate- and large-sized water clusters even with the high-end hardware. The molecular tailoring approach (MTA), a fragmentation-based technique is found to be useful for enabling such high-level ab initio calculations. The present work reports the CCSD(T) level binding energies of many low-lying isomers of large (H2O)n (n = 16, 17, and 25) clusters employing aug-cc-pVDZ and aug-cc-pVTZ basis sets within the MTA framework. Accurate estimation of the CCSD(T) level binding energies [within 0.3 kcal/mol of the respective full calculation (FC) results] is achieved after effecting the grafting procedure, a protocol for minimizing the errors in the MTA-derived energies arising due to the approximate nature of MTA. The CCSD(T) level grafting procedure presented here hinges upon the well-known fact that the MP2 method, which scales as O(N(5)), can be a suitable starting point for approximating to the highly accurate CCSD(T) [that scale as O(N(7))] energies. On account of the requirement of only an MP2-level FC on the entire cluster, the current methodology ultimately leads to a cost-effective solution for the CCSD(T) level accurate binding energies of large-sized water clusters even at the complete basis set limit utilizing off-the-shelf hardware. PMID:27351269

  14. Estimating the age of alleles by use of intraallelic variability

    SciTech Connect

    Slatkin, M.; Rannala, B.

    1997-02-01

    A method is presented for estimating the age of an allele by use of its frequency and the extent of variation among different copies. The method uses the joint distribution of the number of copies in a population sample and the coalescence times of the intraallelic gene genealogy conditioned on the number of copies. The linear birth-death process is used to approximate the dynamics of a rare allele in a finite population. A maximum-likelihood estimate of the age of the allele is obtained by Monte Carlo integration over the coalescence times. The method is applied to two alleles at the cystic fibrosis (CFTR) locus, {Delta}F508 and G542X, for which intraallelic variability at three intronic microsatellite loci has been examined. Our results indicate that G542X is somewhat older than {Delta}F508. Although absolute estimates depend on the mutation rates at the microsatellite loci, our results support the hypothesis that {Delta}F508 arose <500 generations ({approx}10,000 years) ago. 32 refs., 4 figs.

  15. Accurate assessment of early gestational age in normal and diabetic women by serum human placental lactogen concentration.

    PubMed

    Whittaker, P G; Aspillaga, M O; Lind, T

    1983-08-01

    Serum human placental lactogen (hPL) and human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) were assayed and fetal crown-rump length (CRL) was determined by sonar in three groups of pregnant women--35 with uncomplicated pregnancies, 13 with insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, and 21 who represented a general pregnancy population. Each patient had a regular cycle and recorded last menstrual period, ovulated spontaneously, and was delivered of a single live baby. Serum hPL concentrations within the range 0.01-0.80 microU/ml in patients in the first group gave estimates of gestation with an SD of 6.3 days which was the same as the SD derived from CRL measurements. When the hPL regression equation was applied to the diabetic mothers the difference between the gestational age estimated from hPL and that estimated from LMP had a mean value of - 0.9 days with an SD of 6.2 days; this difference was not significantly different from zero. The third group of patients had a mean difference between hPL and LMP derived gestational age of 0.7 days (+/- 6.7 SD). Serum hPL offers a method of estimating gestation sufficiently precise to be used as a practical alternative to sonar measurements of CRL. PMID:6135831

  16. Incentives Increase Participation in Mass Dog Rabies Vaccination Clinics and Methods of Coverage Estimation Are Assessed to Be Accurate

    PubMed Central

    Steinmetz, Melissa; Czupryna, Anna; Bigambo, Machunde; Mzimbiri, Imam; Powell, George; Gwakisa, Paul

    2015-01-01

    In this study we show that incentives (dog collars and owner wristbands) are effective at increasing owner participation in mass dog rabies vaccination clinics and we conclude that household questionnaire surveys and the mark-re-sight (transect survey) method for estimating post-vaccination coverage are accurate when all dogs, including puppies, are included. Incentives were distributed during central-point rabies vaccination clinics in northern Tanzania to quantify their effect on owner participation. In villages where incentives were handed out participation increased, with an average of 34 more dogs being vaccinated. Through economies of scale, this represents a reduction in the cost-per-dog of $0.47. This represents the price-threshold under which the cost of the incentive used must fall to be economically viable. Additionally, vaccination coverage levels were determined in ten villages through the gold-standard village-wide census technique, as well as through two cheaper and quicker methods (randomized household questionnaire and the transect survey). Cost data were also collected. Both non-gold standard methods were found to be accurate when puppies were included in the calculations, although the transect survey and the household questionnaire survey over- and under-estimated the coverage respectively. Given that additional demographic data can be collected through the household questionnaire survey, and that its estimate of coverage is more conservative, we recommend this method. Despite the use of incentives the average vaccination coverage was below the 70% threshold for eliminating rabies. We discuss the reasons and suggest solutions to improve coverage. Given recent international targets to eliminate rabies, this study provides valuable and timely data to help improve mass dog vaccination programs in Africa and elsewhere. PMID:26633821

  17. Incentives Increase Participation in Mass Dog Rabies Vaccination Clinics and Methods of Coverage Estimation Are Assessed to Be Accurate.

    PubMed

    Minyoo, Abel B; Steinmetz, Melissa; Czupryna, Anna; Bigambo, Machunde; Mzimbiri, Imam; Powell, George; Gwakisa, Paul; Lankester, Felix

    2015-12-01

    In this study we show that incentives (dog collars and owner wristbands) are effective at increasing owner participation in mass dog rabies vaccination clinics and we conclude that household questionnaire surveys and the mark-re-sight (transect survey) method for estimating post-vaccination coverage are accurate when all dogs, including puppies, are included. Incentives were distributed during central-point rabies vaccination clinics in northern Tanzania to quantify their effect on owner participation. In villages where incentives were handed out participation increased, with an average of 34 more dogs being vaccinated. Through economies of scale, this represents a reduction in the cost-per-dog of $0.47. This represents the price-threshold under which the cost of the incentive used must fall to be economically viable. Additionally, vaccination coverage levels were determined in ten villages through the gold-standard village-wide census technique, as well as through two cheaper and quicker methods (randomized household questionnaire and the transect survey). Cost data were also collected. Both non-gold standard methods were found to be accurate when puppies were included in the calculations, although the transect survey and the household questionnaire survey over- and under-estimated the coverage respectively. Given that additional demographic data can be collected through the household questionnaire survey, and that its estimate of coverage is more conservative, we recommend this method. Despite the use of incentives the average vaccination coverage was below the 70% threshold for eliminating rabies. We discuss the reasons and suggest solutions to improve coverage. Given recent international targets to eliminate rabies, this study provides valuable and timely data to help improve mass dog vaccination programs in Africa and elsewhere. PMID:26633821

  18. A quantitative method for estimation of volume changes in arachnoid foveae with age.

    PubMed

    Duray, Stephen M; Martel, Stacie S

    2006-03-01

    Age-related changes of arachnoid foveae have been described, but objective, quantitative analyses are lacking. A new quantitative method is presented for estimation of change in total volume of arachnoid foveae with age. The pilot sample consisted of nine skulls from the Palmer Anatomy Laboratory. Arachnoid foveae were filled with sand, which was extracted using a vacuum pump. Mass was determined with an analytical balance and converted to volume. A reliability analysis was performed using intraclass correlation coefficients. The method was found to be highly reliable (intraobserver ICC = 0.9935, interobserver ICC = 0.9878). The relationship between total volume and age was then examined in a sample of 63 males of accurately known age from the Hamann-Todd collection. Linear regression analysis revealed no statistically significant relationship between total volume and age, or foveae frequency and age (alpha = 0.05). Development of arachnoid foveae may be influenced by health factors, which could limit its usefulness in aging. PMID:16566755

  19. Estimation of fetal gestational age from ultrasound images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Salari, Valiollah

    1992-06-01

    Estimation of fetal gestational age, weight, and determination of fetal growth from the measurements of certain parameters of fetal head, abdomen, and femur have been well established in prenatal sonography. The measurements are made from the two dimensional, B- mode, ultrasound images of the fetus. The most common parameters measured are, biparietal diameter, occipital frontal diameter, head circumference, femur diaphysis length, and abdominal circumference. Since the fetal head has an elliptical shape and the femur has a linear shape, fitting the ellipse on the image of the fetal head, a line on the image of the femur are the tasks of image processing which are discussed in this paper.

  20. Assignment of Calibration Information to Deeper Phylogenetic Nodes is More Effective in Obtaining Precise and Accurate Divergence Time Estimates.

    PubMed

    Mello, Beatriz; Schrago, Carlos G

    2014-01-01

    Divergence time estimation has become an essential tool for understanding macroevolutionary events. Molecular dating aims to obtain reliable inferences, which, within a statistical framework, means jointly increasing the accuracy and precision of estimates. Bayesian dating methods exhibit the propriety of a linear relationship between uncertainty and estimated divergence dates. This relationship occurs even if the number of sites approaches infinity and places a limit on the maximum precision of node ages. However, how the placement of calibration information may affect the precision of divergence time estimates remains an open question. In this study, relying on simulated and empirical data, we investigated how the location of calibration within a phylogeny affects the accuracy and precision of time estimates. We found that calibration priors set at median and deep phylogenetic nodes were associated with higher precision values compared to analyses involving calibration at the shallowest node. The results were independent of the tree symmetry. An empirical mammalian dataset produced results that were consistent with those generated by the simulated sequences. Assigning time information to the deeper nodes of a tree is crucial to guarantee the accuracy and precision of divergence times. This finding highlights the importance of the appropriate choice of outgroups in molecular dating. PMID:24855333

  1. Accurate state estimation from uncertain data and models: an application of data assimilation to mathematical models of human brain tumors

    PubMed Central

    2011-01-01

    Background Data assimilation refers to methods for updating the state vector (initial condition) of a complex spatiotemporal model (such as a numerical weather model) by combining new observations with one or more prior forecasts. We consider the potential feasibility of this approach for making short-term (60-day) forecasts of the growth and spread of a malignant brain cancer (glioblastoma multiforme) in individual patient cases, where the observations are synthetic magnetic resonance images of a hypothetical tumor. Results We apply a modern state estimation algorithm (the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter), previously developed for numerical weather prediction, to two different mathematical models of glioblastoma, taking into account likely errors in model parameters and measurement uncertainties in magnetic resonance imaging. The filter can accurately shadow the growth of a representative synthetic tumor for 360 days (six 60-day forecast/update cycles) in the presence of a moderate degree of systematic model error and measurement noise. Conclusions The mathematical methodology described here may prove useful for other modeling efforts in biology and oncology. An accurate forecast system for glioblastoma may prove useful in clinical settings for treatment planning and patient counseling. Reviewers This article was reviewed by Anthony Almudevar, Tomas Radivoyevitch, and Kristin Swanson (nominated by Georg Luebeck). PMID:22185645

  2. Validity of Demirjian's and modified Demirjian's methods in age estimation for Korean juveniles and adolescents.

    PubMed

    Lee, Sang-Seob; Kim, Dongjae; Lee, Saebomi; Lee, U-Young; Seo, Joong Seok; Ahn, Yong Woo; Han, Seung-Ho

    2011-09-10

    In estimating age of juveniles and adolescents, the teeth are employed primarily because of its low variability and less affection by endocrine and nutritional status in development. Demirjian established criteria for evaluating maturity of teeth and his method has been used throughout the world. However, several studies showed the inappropriateness of Demirjian's method on populations other than the one it is based on. Consequently some researchers modified Demirjian's method using data of several different populations. Demirjian himself also published a revised method to overcome other shortcomings of his original method. The aim of this study was to test the validity of Demirjian's and the modified methods (Demirjian's revised, Willems', Chaillet's and new Korean methods) for Korean juveniles and adolescents. 1483 digital orthopantomograms which consist of 754 males and 729 females in the age range of 3-16 years were collected. New age estimation method based on Korean population data was calculated. Dental age was estimated according to each method and the validity was evaluated using the differences between chronological and dental age. The inter- and intra-observer reliability was evaluated to be excellent. Statistically significant difference was observed between chronological and dental age in all the methods for both sexes except new Korean method for both sexes and Demirjian's revised method for males. However, when analyzing absolute and squared value of difference, Willems' method was found to be most accurate followed by new Korean method with slight difference for Korean population for both sexes. In conclusion, both Willems' method and new Korean method conducted by present study were proven to be suitable for Korean population. PMID:21561728

  3. Application of age estimation methods based on teeth eruption: how easy is Olze method to use?

    PubMed

    De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Merelli, V; Botto, M; Ventura, F; Cattaneo, C

    2014-09-01

    The development of new methods for age estimation has become with time an urgent issue because of the increasing immigration, in order to estimate accurately the age of those subjects who lack valid identity documents. Methods of age estimation are divided in skeletal and dental ones, and among the latter, Olze's method is one of the most recent, since it was introduced in 2010 with the aim to identify the legal age of 18 and 21 years by evaluating the different stages of development of the periodontal ligament of the third molars with closed root apices. The present study aims at verifying the applicability of the method to the daily forensic practice, with special focus on the interobserver repeatability. Olze's method was applied by three different observers (two physicians and one dentist without a specific training in Olze's method) to 61 orthopantomograms from subjects of mixed ethnicity aged between 16 and 51 years. The analysis took into consideration the lower third molars. The results provided by the different observers were then compared in order to verify the interobserver error. Results showed that interobserver error varies between 43 and 57 % for the right lower third molar (M48) and between 23 and 49 % for the left lower third molar (M38). Chi-square test did not show significant differences according to the side of teeth and type of professional figure. The results prove that Olze's method is not easy to apply when used by not adequately trained personnel, because of an intrinsic interobserver error. Since it is however a crucial method in age determination, it should be used only by experienced observers after an intensive and specific training. PMID:24781787

  4. Reservoir evaluation of thin-bedded turbidites and hydrocarbon pore thickness estimation for an accurate quantification of resource

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omoniyi, Bayonle; Stow, Dorrik

    2016-04-01

    One of the major challenges in the assessment of and production from turbidite reservoirs is to take full account of thin and medium-bedded turbidites (<10cm and <30cm respectively). Although such thinner, low-pay sands may comprise a significant proportion of the reservoir succession, they can go unnoticed by conventional analysis and so negatively impact on reserve estimation, particularly in fields producing from prolific thick-bedded turbidite reservoirs. Field development plans often take little note of such thin beds, which are therefore bypassed by mainstream production. In fact, the trapped and bypassed fluids can be vital where maximising field value and optimising production are key business drivers. We have studied in detail, a succession of thin-bedded turbidites associated with thicker-bedded reservoir facies in the North Brae Field, UKCS, using a combination of conventional logs and cores to assess the significance of thin-bedded turbidites in computing hydrocarbon pore thickness (HPT). This quantity, being an indirect measure of thickness, is critical for an accurate estimation of original-oil-in-place (OOIP). By using a combination of conventional and unconventional logging analysis techniques, we obtain three different results for the reservoir intervals studied. These results include estimated net sand thickness, average sand thickness, and their distribution trend within a 3D structural grid. The net sand thickness varies from 205 to 380 ft, and HPT ranges from 21.53 to 39.90 ft. We observe that an integrated approach (neutron-density cross plots conditioned to cores) to HPT quantification reduces the associated uncertainties significantly, resulting in estimation of 96% of actual HPT. Further work will focus on assessing the 3D dynamic connectivity of the low-pay sands with the surrounding thick-bedded turbidite facies.

  5. Estimation of Energy Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions considering Aging and Climate Change in Residential Sector

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, M.; Park, C.; Park, J. H.; Jung, T. Y.; Lee, D. K.

    2015-12-01

    The impacts of climate change, particularly that of rising temperatures, are being observed across the globe and are expected to further increase. To counter this phenomenon, numerous nations are focusing on the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Because energy demand management is considered as a key factor in emissions reduction, it is necessary to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in relation to climate change. Further, because South Korea is the world's fastest nation to become aged, demographics have also become instrumental in the accurate estimation of energy demands and emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to estimate energy consumption and GHG emissions in the residential sectors of South Korea with regard to climate change and aging to build more accurate strategies for energy demand management and emissions reduction goals. This study, which was stablished with 2010 and 2050 as the base and target years, respectively, was divided into a two-step process. The first step evaluated the effects of aging and climate change on energy demand, and the second estimated future energy use and GHG emissions through projected scenarios. First, aging characteristics and climate change factors were analyzed by using the logarithmic mean divisia index (LMDI) decomposition analysis and the application of historical data. In the analysis of changes in energy use, the effects of activity, structure, and intensity were considered; the degrees of contribution were derived from each effect in addition to their relations to energy demand. Second, two types of scenarios were stablished based on this analysis. The aging scenarios are business as usual and future characteristics scenarios, and were used in combination with Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 8.5. Finally, energy consumption and GHG emissions were estimated by using a combination of scenarios. The results of these scenarios show an increase in energy consumption

  6. Dental age estimation and different predictive ability of various tooth types in the Czech population: data mining methods.

    PubMed

    Velemínská, Jana; Pilný, Ales; Cepek, Miroslav; Kot'ová, Magdaléna; Kubelková, Radka

    2013-01-01

    Dental development is frequently used to estimate age in many anthropological specializations. The aim of this study was to extract an accurate predictive age system for the Czech population and to discover any different predictive ability of various tooth types and their ontogenetic stability during infancy and adolescence. A cross-sectional panoramic X-ray study was based on developmental stages assessment of mandibular teeth (Moorrees et al. 1963) using 1393 individuals aged from 3 to 17 years. Data mining methods were used for dental age estimation. These are based on nonlinear relationships between the predicted age and data sets. Compared with other tested predictive models, the GAME method predicted age with the highest accuracy. Age-interval estimations between the 10th and 90th percentiles ranged from -1.06 to +1.01 years in girls and from -1.13 to +1.20 in boys. Accuracy was expressed by RMS error, which is the average deviation between estimated and chronological age. The predictive value of individual teeth changed during the investigated period from 3 to 17 years. When we evaluated the whole period, the second molars exhibited the best predictive ability. When evaluating partial age periods, we found that the accuracy of biological age prediction declines with increasing age (from 0.52 to 1.20 years in girls and from 0.62 to 1.22 years in boys) and that the predictive importance of tooth types changes, depending on variability and the number of developmental stages in the age interval. GAME is a promising tool for age-interval estimation studies as they can provide reliable predictive models. PMID:24466642

  7. Can endocranial volume be estimated accurately from external skull measurements in great-tailed grackles (Quiscalus mexicanus)?

    PubMed

    Logan, Corina J; Palmstrom, Christin R

    2015-01-01

    There is an increasing need to validate and collect data approximating brain size on individuals in the field to understand what evolutionary factors drive brain size variation within and across species. We investigated whether we could accurately estimate endocranial volume (a proxy for brain size), as measured by computerized tomography (CT) scans, using external skull measurements and/or by filling skulls with beads and pouring them out into a graduated cylinder for male and female great-tailed grackles. We found that while females had higher correlations than males, estimations of endocranial volume from external skull measurements or beads did not tightly correlate with CT volumes. We found no accuracy in the ability of external skull measures to predict CT volumes because the prediction intervals for most data points overlapped extensively. We conclude that we are unable to detect individual differences in endocranial volume using external skull measurements. These results emphasize the importance of validating and explicitly quantifying the predictive accuracy of brain size proxies for each species and each sex. PMID:26082858

  8. A plan for accurate estimation of daily area-mean rainfall during the CaPE experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Duchon, Claude E.

    1992-01-01

    The Convection and Precipitation/Electrification (CaPE) experiment took place in east central Florida from 8 July to 18 August, 1991. There were five research themes associated with CaPE. In broad terms they are: investigation of the evolution of the electric field in convective clouds, determination of meteorological and electrical conditions associated with lightning, development of mesoscale numerical forecasts (2-12 hr) and nowcasts (less than 2 hr) of convective initiation and remote estimation of rainfall. It is the last theme coupled with numerous raingage and streamgage measurements, satellite and aircraft remote sensing, radiosondes and other meteorological measurements in the atmospheric boundary layer that provide the basis for determining the hydrologic cycle for the CaPE experiment area. The largest component of the hydrologic cycle in this region is rainfall. An accurate determination of daily area-mean rainfall is important in correctly modeling its apportionment into runoff, infiltration and evapotranspiration. In order to achieve this goal a research plan was devised and initial analysis begun. The overall research plan is discussed with special emphasis placed on the adjustment of radar rainfall estimates to raingage rainfall.

  9. A systematic approach for the accurate non-invasive estimation of blood glucose utilizing a novel light-tissue interaction adaptive modelling scheme

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rybynok, V. O.; Kyriacou, P. A.

    2007-10-01

    Diabetes is one of the biggest health challenges of the 21st century. The obesity epidemic, sedentary lifestyles and an ageing population mean prevalence of the condition is currently doubling every generation. Diabetes is associated with serious chronic ill health, disability and premature mortality. Long-term complications including heart disease, stroke, blindness, kidney disease and amputations, make the greatest contribution to the costs of diabetes care. Many of these long-term effects could be avoided with earlier, more effective monitoring and treatment. Currently, blood glucose can only be monitored through the use of invasive techniques. To date there is no widely accepted and readily available non-invasive monitoring technique to measure blood glucose despite the many attempts. This paper challenges one of the most difficult non-invasive monitoring techniques, that of blood glucose, and proposes a new novel approach that will enable the accurate, and calibration free estimation of glucose concentration in blood. This approach is based on spectroscopic techniques and a new adaptive modelling scheme. The theoretical implementation and the effectiveness of the adaptive modelling scheme for this application has been described and a detailed mathematical evaluation has been employed to prove that such a scheme has the capability of extracting accurately the concentration of glucose from a complex biological media.

  10. Lake Erie Yellow perch age estimation based on three structures: Precision, processing times, and management implications

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Vandergoot, C.S.; Bur, M.T.; Powell, K.A.

    2008-01-01

    Yellow perch Perca flavescens support economically important recreational and commercial fisheries in Lake Erie and are intensively managed. Age estimation represents an integral component in the management of Lake Erie yellow perch stocks, as age-structured population models are used to set safe harvest levels on an annual basis. We compared the precision associated with yellow perch (N = 251) age estimates from scales, sagittal otoliths, and anal spine sections and evaluated the time required to process and estimate age from each structure. Three readers of varying experience estimated ages. The precision (mean coefficient of variation) of estimates among readers was 1% for sagittal otoliths, 5-6% for anal spines, and 11-13% for scales. Agreement rates among readers were 94-95% for otoliths, 71-76% for anal spines, and 45-50% for scales. Systematic age estimation differences were evident among scale and anal spine readers; less-experienced readers tended to underestimate ages of yellow perch older than age 4 relative to estimates made by an experienced reader. Mean scale age tended to underestimate ages of age-6 and older fish relative to otolith ages estimated by an experienced reader. Total annual mortality estimates based on scale ages were 20% higher than those based on otolith ages; mortality estimates based on anal spine ages were 4% higher than those based on otolith ages. Otoliths required more removal and preparation time than scales and anal spines, but age estimation time was substantially lower for otoliths than for the other two structures. We suggest the use of otoliths or anal spines for age estimation in yellow perch (regardless of length) from Lake Erie and other systems where precise age estimates are necessary, because age estimation errors resulting from the use of scales could generate incorrect management decisions. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2008.

  11. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in lower premolars by orthopantomography.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; De Luca, Stefano; Alemán, Inmaculada; Ferrante, Luigi; Cingolani, Mariano

    2012-01-10

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Since 2004, in order to examine patterns of secondary dentine apposition, Cameriere et al. have been extensively studying the pulp/tooth area ratio of the canines by panoramic and peri-apical X-ray images. The main aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between age and age-related changes in the pulp/tooth area ratio in monoradicular teeth, with the exception of canines, by orthopantomography. A total of 606 orthopantomograms of Spanish white Caucasian patients (289 women and 317 men), aged between 18 and 75 years and coming from Bilbao and Granada (Spain), was analysed. Regression analysis of age of monoradicular teeth indicated that the lower premolars were the most closely correlated with age. An ANCOVA did not show significant differences between men and women. Multiple regression analysis, with age as dependent variable and pulp/tooth area ratio as predictor, yielded several formulae. R(2) ranged from 0.69 to 0.75 for a single lower premolar tooth and from 0.79 to 0.86 for multiple lower premolar teeth. Depending on the available number of premolar teeth, the mean of the absolute values of residual standard error, at 95% confidence interval, ranged between 4.34 and 6.02 years, showing that the pulp/tooth area ratio is a useful variable for assessing age with reasonable accuracy. PMID:21821373

  12. Dental age estimation in a Brazilian adult population using Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    Azevedo, Alana de Cássia Silva; Alves, Nathalia Zanini; Michel-Crosato, Edgard; Rocha, Marcos; Cameriere, Roberto; Biazevic, Maria Gabriela Haye

    2015-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to develop a specific formula to estimate age in a Brazilian adult population and to compare the original formula from Cameriere to this Brazilian formula. The sample comprised 1,772 periapical radiographs from 443 subjects (219 men, 224 women) that were organized into 12 groups according to sex (men or women) and age (20-29, 30-39, 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, and 70 years and older). The films were analyzed using the criteria described by Cameriere et al. (2004) and Adobe Photoshop®. We obtained a mean error of 8.56 (SD = 5.80) years for tooth 13, 7.99 (SD = 5.78) years for tooth 23, 8.38 (SD = 6.26) years for tooth 33, and 8.20 (SD = 6.54) years for tooth 43. When teeth were combined in the analysis, we observed lower mean errors. The Brazilian formula developed from this sample group was more accurate than Cameriere's formula. However, other factors must be considered to improve age estimates in adults. PMID:25590504

  13. Development of a new, robust and accurate, spectroscopic metric for scatterer size estimation in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kassinopoulos, Michalis; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The modulations appearing on the backscattering spectrum originating from a scatterer are related to its diameter as described by Mie theory for spherical particles. Many metrics for Spectroscopic Optical Coherence Tomography (SOCT) take advantage of this observation in order to enhance the contrast of Optical Coherence Tomography (OCT) images. However, none of these metrics has achieved high accuracy when calculating the scatterer size. In this work, Mie theory was used to further investigate the relationship between the degree of modulation in the spectrum and the scatterer size. From this study, a new spectroscopic metric, the bandwidth of the Correlation of the Derivative (COD) was developed which is more robust and accurate, compared to previously reported techniques, in the estimation of scatterer size. The self-normalizing nature of the derivative and the robustness of the first minimum of the correlation as a measure of its width, offer significant advantages over other spectral analysis approaches especially for scatterer sizes above 3 μm. The feasibility of this technique was demonstrated using phantom samples containing 6, 10 and 16 μm diameter microspheres as well as images of normal and cancerous human colon. The results are very promising, suggesting that the proposed metric could be implemented in OCT spectral analysis for measuring nuclear size distribution in biological tissues. A technique providing such information would be of great clinical significance since it would allow the detection of nuclear enlargement at the earliest stages of precancerous development.

  14. Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T Douglas

    2015-10-01

    Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature. PMID:26352462

  15. Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T. Douglas

    2015-09-01

    Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature.

  16. Radii, masses, and ages of 18 bright stars using interferometry and new estimations of exoplanetary parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ligi, R.; Creevey, O.; Mourard, D.; Crida, A.; Lagrange, A.-M.; Nardetto, N.; Perraut, K.; Schultheis, M.; Tallon-Bosc, I.; ten Brummelaar, T.

    2016-02-01

    Context. Accurate stellar parameters are needed in numerous domains of astrophysics. The position of stars on the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram is an important indication of their structure and evolution, and it helps improve stellar models. Furthermore, the age and mass of stars hosting planets are required elements for studying exoplanetary systems. Aims: We aim at determining accurate parameters of a set of 18 bright exoplanet host and potential host stars from interferometric measurements, photometry, and stellar models. Methods: Using the VEGA/CHARA interferometer operating in the visible domain, we measured the angular diameters of 18 stars, ten of which host exoplanets. We combined them with their distances to estimate their radii. We used photometry to derive their bolometric flux and, then, their effective temperature and luminosity to place them on the H-R diagram. We then used the PARSEC models to derive their best fit ages and masses, with error bars derived from Monte Carlo calculations. Results: Our interferometric measurements lead to an average of 1.9% uncertainty on angular diameters and 3% on stellar radii. There is good agreement between measured and indirect estimations of angular diameters (either from SED fitting or from surface brightness relations) for main sequence (MS) stars, but not as good for more evolved stars. For each star, we provide a likelihood map in the mass-age plane; typically, two distinct sets of solutions appear (an old and a young age). The errors on the ages and masses that we provide account for the metallicity uncertainties, which are often neglected by other works. From measurements of its radius and density, we also provide the mass of 55 Cnc independently of models. From the stellar masses, we provide new estimates of semi-major axes and minimum masses of exoplanets with reliable uncertainties. We also derive the radius, density, and mass of 55 Cnc e, a super-Earth that transits its stellar host. Our exoplanetary

  17. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age

    PubMed Central

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker’s age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by “naïve” listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers’ natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60–65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20–25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40–45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

  18. Can you hear my age? Influences of speech rate and speech spontaneity on estimation of speaker age.

    PubMed

    Skoog Waller, Sara; Eriksson, Mårten; Sörqvist, Patrik

    2015-01-01

    Cognitive hearing science is mainly about the study of how cognitive factors contribute to speech comprehension, but cognitive factors also partake in speech processing to infer non-linguistic information from speech signals, such as the intentions of the talker and the speaker's age. Here, we report two experiments on age estimation by "naïve" listeners. The aim was to study how speech rate influences estimation of speaker age by comparing the speakers' natural speech rate with increased or decreased speech rate. In Experiment 1, listeners were presented with audio samples of read speech from three different speaker age groups (young, middle aged, and old adults). They estimated the speakers as younger when speech rate was faster than normal and as older when speech rate was slower than normal. This speech rate effect was slightly greater in magnitude for older (60-65 years) speakers in comparison with younger (20-25 years) speakers, suggesting that speech rate may gain greater importance as a perceptual age cue with increased speaker age. This pattern was more pronounced in Experiment 2, in which listeners estimated age from spontaneous speech. Faster speech rate was associated with lower age estimates, but only for older and middle aged (40-45 years) speakers. Taken together, speakers of all age groups were estimated as older when speech rate decreased, except for the youngest speakers in Experiment 2. The absence of a linear speech rate effect in estimates of younger speakers, for spontaneous speech, implies that listeners use different age estimation strategies or cues (possibly vocabulary) depending on the age of the speaker and the spontaneity of the speech. Potential implications for forensic investigations and other applied domains are discussed. PMID:26236259

  19. Learning Multiple Band-Pass Filters for Sleep Stage Estimation: Towards Care Support for Aged Persons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takadama, Keiki; Hirose, Kazuyuki; Matsushima, Hiroyasu; Hattori, Kiyohiko; Nakajima, Nobuo

    This paper proposes the sleep stage estimation method that can provide an accurate estimation for each person without connecting any devices to human's body. In particular, our method learns the appropriate multiple band-pass filters to extract the specific wave pattern of heartbeat, which is required to estimate the sleep stage. For an accurate estimation, this paper employs Learning Classifier System (LCS) as the data-mining techniques and extends it to estimate the sleep stage. Extensive experiments on five subjects in mixed health confirm the following implications: (1) the proposed method can provide more accurate sleep stage estimation than the conventional method, and (2) the sleep stage estimation calculated by the proposed method is robust regardless of the physical condition of the subject.

  20. A Bayesian approach to estimate skeletal age-at-death utilizing dental wear.

    PubMed

    Prince, Debra A; Kimmerle, Erin H; Konigsberg, Lyle W

    2008-05-01

    In the forensic context, teeth are often recovered in mass disasters, armed conflicts, and mass graves associated with human rights violations. Therefore, for victim identification, techniques utilizing the dentition to estimate the first parameters of identity (e.g., age) can be critical. This analysis was undertaken to apply a Bayesian statistical method, transition analysis, based on the Gompertz-Makeham (GM) hazard model, to estimate individual ages-at-death for Balkan populations utilizing dental wear. Dental wear phases were scored following Smith's eight-phase ordinal scoring method and chart. To estimate age, probability density functions for the posterior distributions of age for each tooth phase are calculated. Transition analysis was utilized to generate a mean age-of-transition from one dental wear phase to the next. The age estimates are based on the calculated age distribution from the GM hazard analysis and the ages-of-transition. To estimate the age-at-death for an individual, the highest posterior density region for each phase is calculated. By using a Bayesian statistical approach to estimate age, the population's age distribution is taken into account. Therefore, the age estimates are reliable for the Balkan populations, regardless of population or sex differences. The results showed that a vast amount of interpersonal variation in dental wear exists within the current sample and that this method may be most useful for classifying unknown individuals into broad age cohorts rather than small age ranges. PMID:18471201

  1. Comparison of otolith and scale readings for age and growth estimation of common dentex Dentex dentex.

    PubMed

    Baudouin, M; Marengo, M; Pere, A; Culioli, J-M; Santoni, M-C; Marchand, B; Durieux, E D H

    2016-02-01

    Three methods of age estimation were compared for Dentex dentex. Based on sectioned otoliths, scales appeared to be relevant only up to 5 years and whole otoliths up to 12 years. The maximum estimated age was 36 years, which constitutes to date the oldest age reported. PMID:26563912

  2. 77 FR 4000 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-01-26

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2011 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2011, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  3. 78 FR 6289 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-01-30

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2012 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ] ACTION: General notice announcing population estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2012, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  4. 76 FR 37314 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2011-06-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2010 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2010, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  5. 75 FR 4343 - Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2010-01-27

    ... Office of the Secretary Estimates of the Voting Age Population for 2009 AGENCY: Office of the Secretary, Commerce. ACTION: General Notice Announcing Population Estimates. SUMMARY: This notice announces the voting age population estimates as of July 1, 2009, for each state and the District of Columbia. We...

  6. Application of the Bang and Ramm age at death estimation method to two known-age archaeological assemblages.

    PubMed

    Tang, Nancy; Antoine, Daniel; Hillson, Simon

    2014-11-01

    The Bang and Ramm method uses root dentine translucency (RDT) length in sectioned or unsectioned teeth as a sole indicator of chronological age at death in adult human remains. The formulae have been tested on modern remains of known age and on modern and archaeological remains of unknown age. This is the first published study of the method on known-age archaeological specimens and tests whether RDT is a good indicator of chronological age in buried human remains. We applied the Bang and Ramm equations to two 18th and 19th century assemblages excavated from the crypt of Christ Church, Spitalfields, and the cemetery of All Hallows by the Tower. Translucency was defined by shining a light through the external unsectioned root surface and was measured from digital images of 583 and 83 nonmolar roots from 126 Spitalfields and 12 All Hallows individuals, respectively, aged 21-81 years. Average absolute difference between real age and estimated age was 10.7 years and 8.4 years for Spitalfields and All Hallows individuals, respectively, with 58% and 75% estimated within 10 years of known age, and 29% and 33% estimated within five years of known age. These estimations are comparable to results from other ageing methods applied to the Spitalfields collection. Ages from both populations were estimated largely to the middle ranges, with younger individuals overestimated and older individuals underestimated. This is a common occurrence when using inverse calibration, where age is treated as the dependent variable and the ageing feature as the independent variable. PMID:25043454

  7. Observing Volcanic Thermal Anomalies from Space: How Accurate is the Estimation of the Hotspot's Size and Temperature?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaksek, K.; Pick, L.; Lombardo, V.; Hort, M. K.

    2015-12-01

    Measuring the heat emission from active volcanic features on the basis of infrared satellite images contributes to the volcano's hazard assessment. Because these thermal anomalies only occupy a small fraction (< 1 %) of a typically resolved target pixel (e.g. from Landsat 7, MODIS) the accurate determination of the hotspot's size and temperature is however problematic. Conventionally this is overcome by comparing observations in at least two separate infrared spectral wavebands (Dual-Band method). We investigate the resolution limits of this thermal un-mixing technique by means of a uniquely designed indoor analog experiment. Therein the volcanic feature is simulated by an electrical heating alloy of 0.5 mm diameter installed on a plywood panel of high emissivity. Two thermographic cameras (VarioCam high resolution and ImageIR 8300 by Infratec) record images of the artificial heat source in wavebands comparable to those available from satellite data. These range from the short-wave infrared (1.4-3 µm) over the mid-wave infrared (3-8 µm) to the thermal infrared (8-15 µm). In the conducted experiment the pixel fraction of the hotspot was successively reduced by increasing the camera-to-target distance from 3 m to 35 m. On the basis of an individual target pixel the expected decrease of the hotspot pixel area with distance at a relatively constant wire temperature of around 600 °C was confirmed. The deviation of the hotspot's pixel fraction yielded by the Dual-Band method from the theoretically calculated one was found to be within 20 % up until a target distance of 25 m. This means that a reliable estimation of the hotspot size is only possible if the hotspot is larger than about 3 % of the pixel area, a resolution boundary most remotely sensed volcanic hotspots fall below. Future efforts will focus on the investigation of a resolution limit for the hotspot's temperature by varying the alloy's amperage. Moreover, the un-mixing results for more realistic multi

  8. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas.

    PubMed

    White, Paula A; Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3-13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

  9. Age Estimation of African Lions Panthera leo by Ratio of Tooth Areas

    PubMed Central

    Ikanda, Dennis; Ferrante, Luigi; Chardonnet, Philippe; Mesochina, Pascal; Cameriere, Roberto

    2016-01-01

    Improved age estimation of African lions Panthera leo is needed to address a number of pressing conservation issues. Here we present a formula for estimating lion age to within six months of known age based on measuring the extent of pulp closure from X-rays, or Ratio Of tooth AReas (ROAR). Derived from measurements taken from lions aged 3–13 years for which exact ages were known, the formula explains 92% of the total variance. The method of calculating the pulp/tooth area ratio, which has been used extensively in forensic science, is novel in the study of lion aging. As a quantifiable measure, ROAR offers improved lion age estimates for population modeling and investigations of age-related mortality, and may assist national and international wildlife authorities in judging compliance with regulatory measures involving age. PMID:27089506

  10. The effects of racemization rate for age estimation of pink teeth.

    PubMed

    Sakuma, Ayaka; Saitoh, Hisako; Ishii, Namiko; Iwase, Hirotaro

    2015-03-01

    Pink teeth is thought to result from the seepage of hemoglobin caused by dental pulp decomposition. We investigated whether racemization can be applied for age estimation in cases of pink teeth where the whole tooth is used. The pink teeth used were three cases and the normal teeth for control were five mandibular canines of known age. Age of the pink teeth was calculated on the basis of regression formula obtained from the five control teeth. Only a slight error was noted between the actual and estimated ages of the pink teeth (R(2) = 0.980, r = 0.990): Cases 1-3 actually aged 23, 53, and 59 years were estimated to be 26, 52, and 60 years. Based on our results of testing pink teeth of known age, we suggest that racemization techniques allow for the age estimation of pink teeth using the same methods for normally colored teeth. PMID:25684096

  11. Thermoluminescence and new 14C age estimates for late quaternary loesses in southwestern Nebraska

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Maat, P.B.; Johnson, W.C.

    1996-01-01

    Loess of late Quaternary age mantles most of Nebraska south of the Platte River Valley. At least five late Quaternary loesses are recognized: from oldest to youngest, one or more undifferentiated pre-lllinoian loesses, the Loveland Loess, the Gilman Canyon Loess, which exhibits a well developed soil and rests unconformably on the Sangamon soil, the Peoria Loess capped by the Brady soil, and the Bignell Loess, which is distributed discontinuously. Previous research shows that the Loveland Loess is Illinoian. the Gilman Canyon Loess and Peoria Loess are Wisconsin, and the Bignell Loess is Holocene. We present here the first thermoluminescence (TL) age estimates and new C ages for these late Quaternary loesses at two key sections in southwestern Nebraska, the Eustis ash pit and the Bignell Hill road cut. TL age estimates from all samples collected from Eustis ash pit and Bignell Hill were internally consistent. TL and C age estimates from these two sections generally agree and support previous age determinations. The TL age estimate on Loveland Loess indicates deposition at 163 ka. TL and radiocarbon age estimates indicate that Oilman Canyon Loess, believed to be deposited during the Farmdale interstade, first began to accumulate at about 40 ka: the lower part of the Gilman Canyon Loess is 36 ka at Eustis and the middle of the unit is 30 ka at Bignell Hill. The lower and upper parts of the Peoria Loess give age estimates of 24 ka and 17 ka, respectively. TL age estimates for deposition of the Bignell Loess are 9 ka near the base, in agreement with radiocarbon age estimates, and 6 ka immediately below the modern soil, substantiating its Holocene age. Comparisons of TL age estimates with ??18O and insolation curves which show loess deposition during interglacial and interstadial as well as glacial periods, indicate that loess deposition on the Great Plains can occur under a variety of climatic conditions.

  12. Estimating Accurate Relative Spacecraft Angular Position from DSN VLBI Phases Using X-Band Telemetry or DOR Tones

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bagri, Durgadas S.; Majid, Walid

    2009-01-01

    At present spacecraft angular position with Deep Space Network (DSN) is determined using group delay estimates from very long baseline interferometer (VLBI) phase measurements employing differential one way ranging (DOR) tones. As an alternative to this approach, we propose estimating position of a spacecraft to half a fringe cycle accuracy using time variations between measured and calculated phases as the Earth rotates using DSN VLBI baseline(s). Combining fringe location of the target with the phase allows high accuracy for spacecraft angular position estimate. This can be achieved using telemetry signals of at least 4-8 MSamples/sec data rate or DOR tones.

  13. The Technological Adolescent Age Transition: A Boundary to Estimate the Last Factor of the Drake Equation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lemarchand, Guillermo A.

    2004-06-01

    Based on the study of several long-term societal indicators we estimate the phase transition between the ``Technological Adolescent Age'' (TAA) and the ``Technological Mature Age'' (TMA). Assuming the ``Principle of Mediocrity'' and using the Drake Equation we estimate a lower threshold for the number of technological civilizations in the galaxy.

  14. The lateral clavicular epiphysis: fusion timing and age estimation.

    PubMed

    Langley, Natalie R

    2016-03-01

    This study utilizes a forensic autopsy sample of twentieth century American Whites (the McCormick Clavicle Collection) to describe the morphology, variation, and fusion timing of the lateral clavicle epiphysis. Clavicles from individuals between 11 and 25 years at the time of death were used to document fusion of the lateral epiphysis (n= 133, 38 females and 95 males). The lateral epiphysis was scored as unfused, fusing, or fused. A linear weighted kappa indicates that this scoring method is highly replicable with almost perfect inter-rater agreement (kappa = 0.849), according to a widely used standard for assessing kappa values. Transition analysis, or probit regression, was employed to quantify fusion timing of the lateral epiphysis. The transition from "unfused" to "fusing" is most likely to occur at 16.5 years in females and 17.5 years in males. The transition from "fusing" to "fused" occurs at age 21 in females and age 20 in males. The earliest age at which fusion began was 15 years (n = 1), but the majority began fusing between 17 and 20 years. Most individuals (98.5 % of the sample) aged >24 years had fused lateral epiphyses. The epiphysis assumes one of two forms: (1) a separate bony flake fusing to the diaphysis or (2) a mound of bone glazing/smoothing over the diaphyseal surface. As socioeconomic status has been cited as the most influential variable on skeletal maturation rates, the fusion ages offered here should not be applied to populations with a socioeconomic status different from the greater US population. PMID:26253853

  15. Quaternion-Based Unscented Kalman Filter for Accurate Indoor Heading Estimation Using Wearable Multi-Sensor System

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Xuebing; Yu, Shuai; Zhang, Shengzhi; Wang, Guoping; Liu, Sheng

    2015-01-01

    Inertial navigation based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMUs) has attracted numerous researchers due to its high reliability and independence. The heading estimation, as one of the most important parts of inertial navigation, has been a research focus in this field. Heading estimation using magnetometers is perturbed by magnetic disturbances, such as indoor concrete structures and electronic equipment. The MEMS gyroscope is also used for heading estimation. However, the accuracy of gyroscope is unreliable with time. In this paper, a wearable multi-sensor system has been designed to obtain the high-accuracy indoor heading estimation, according to a quaternion-based unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithm. The proposed multi-sensor system including one three-axis accelerometer, three single-axis gyroscopes, one three-axis magnetometer and one microprocessor minimizes the size and cost. The wearable multi-sensor system was fixed on waist of pedestrian and the quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for heading estimation experiments in our college building. The results show that the mean heading estimation errors are less 10° and 5° to multi-sensor system fixed on waist of pedestrian and the quadrotor UAV, respectively, compared to the reference path. PMID:25961384

  16. Quaternion-based unscented Kalman filter for accurate indoor heading estimation using wearable multi-sensor system.

    PubMed

    Yuan, Xuebing; Yu, Shuai; Zhang, Shengzhi; Wang, Guoping; Liu, Sheng

    2015-01-01

    Inertial navigation based on micro-electromechanical system (MEMS) inertial measurement units (IMUs) has attracted numerous researchers due to its high reliability and independence. The heading estimation, as one of the most important parts of inertial navigation, has been a research focus in this field. Heading estimation using magnetometers is perturbed by magnetic disturbances, such as indoor concrete structures and electronic equipment. The MEMS gyroscope is also used for heading estimation. However, the accuracy of gyroscope is unreliable with time. In this paper, a wearable multi-sensor system has been designed to obtain the high-accuracy indoor heading estimation, according to a quaternion-based unscented Kalman filter (UKF) algorithm. The proposed multi-sensor system including one three-axis accelerometer, three single-axis gyroscopes, one three-axis magnetometer and one microprocessor minimizes the size and cost. The wearable multi-sensor system was fixed on waist of pedestrian and the quadrotor unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) for heading estimation experiments in our college building. The results show that the mean heading estimation errors are less 10° and 5° to multi-sensor system fixed on waist of pedestrian and the quadrotor UAV, respectively, compared to the reference path. PMID:25961384

  17. A Novel Physiology-Based Mathematical Model to Estimate Red Blood Cell Lifespan in Different Human Age Groups.

    PubMed

    An, Guohua; Widness, John A; Mock, Donald M; Veng-Pedersen, Peter

    2016-09-01

    Direct measurement of red blood cell (RBC) survival in humans has improved from the original accurate but limited differential agglutination technique to the current reliable, safe, and accurate biotin method. Despite this, all of these methods are time consuming and require blood sampling over several months to determine the RBC lifespan. For situations in which RBC survival information must be obtained quickly, these methods are not suitable. With the exception of adults and infants, RBC survival has not been extensively investigated in other age groups. To address this need, we developed a novel, physiology-based mathematical model that quickly estimates RBC lifespan in healthy individuals at any age. The model is based on the assumption that the total number of RBC recirculations during the lifespan of each RBC (denoted by N max) is relatively constant for all age groups. The model was initially validated using the data from our prior infant and adult biotin-labeled red blood cell studies and then extended to the other age groups. The model generated the following estimated RBC lifespans in 2-year-old, 5-year-old, 8-year-old, and 10-year-old children: 62, 74, 82, and 86 days, respectively. We speculate that this model has useful clinical applications. For example, HbA1c testing is not reliable in identifying children with diabetes because HbA1c is directly affected by RBC lifespan. Because our model can estimate RBC lifespan in children at any age, corrections to HbA1c values based on the model-generated RBC lifespan could improve diabetes diagnosis as well as therapy in children. PMID:27215601

  18. Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gorresen, P. Marcos; Camp, Richard J.; Brinck, Kevin W.; Farmer, Chris

    2012-01-01

    Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

  19. GGOS and the EOP - the key role of SLR for a stable estimation of highly accurate Earth orientation parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bloßfeld, Mathis; Panzetta, Francesca; Müller, Horst; Gerstl, Michael

    2016-04-01

    The GGOS vision is to integrate geometric and gravimetric observation techniques to estimate consistent geodetic-geophysical parameters. In order to reach this goal, the common estimation of station coordinates, Stokes coefficients and Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) is necessary. Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) provides the ability to study correlations between the different parameter groups since the observed satellite orbit dynamics are sensitive to the above mentioned geodetic parameters. To decrease the correlations, SLR observations to multiple satellites have to be combined. In this paper, we compare the estimated EOP of (i) single satellite SLR solutions and (ii) multi-satellite SLR solutions. Therefore, we jointly estimate station coordinates, EOP, Stokes coefficients and orbit parameters using different satellite constellations. A special focus in this investigation is put on the de-correlation of different geodetic parameter groups due to the combination of SLR observations. Besides SLR observations to spherical satellites (commonly used), we discuss the impact of SLR observations to non-spherical satellites such as, e.g., the JASON-2 satellite. The goal of this study is to discuss the existing parameter interactions and to present a strategy how to obtain reliable estimates of station coordinates, EOP, orbit parameter and Stokes coefficients in one common adjustment. Thereby, the benefits of a multi-satellite SLR solution are evaluated.

  20. New Method of Age Estimation from Maxillary Sutures Closure in a Thai Population.

    PubMed

    Sinthubua, A; Theera-Umpon, N; Auephanwiriyakul, S; Ruengdit, S; Das, S; Mahakkanukrauh, P

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation is one of the major components of forensic identification. Cranial suture closure has long been used as indicator for age estimation. Maxillary sutures have been less studied for estimation of age at death because they vary in their timing of closure with age. The purpose of this study was to estimate age by examining 190 Thai skulls with age ranging between 15-93 years from Forensic Osteology Research Center, Faculty of Medicine, and Chiang Mai University. Four parts of maxillary suture (incisive, anterior, transverse, and posterior sutures) were investigated the suture obliteration of each suture by computerizing from photograph. The suture were measured by pixel counting.The prediction model which based on the support vector machine (SVM) for regression or support vector regression (SVR) was utilized for data analysis. The results showed high correlation (R2 = 0.9086) between the predicted age and actual age. Plot between actual age group and predicted age in seven groups also revealed high correlation (R2 = 0.9434). These can be implied that we are able to use this SVR model to predict age at death using maxillary suture information.The interesting issue is to further apply this model in more cases to ensure the generalization of the finding. This study is the first attempt to estimate age at death using a new method based on novel analysis which considers a characteristic of relationship between maxillary suture closures with age that are not in linear form. The present study may contribute as a basis knowledge and method for further study of age estimation in archaeological and forensic anthropological contexts, especially when only skull or base of skull are found. PMID:27212570

  1. [Forensic age estimation in juveniles and young adults: Reducing the range of scatter in age diagnosis by combining different methods].

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Sven; Schramm, Danilo; Ribbecke, Sebastian; Schulz, Ronald; Wittschieber, Daniel; Olze, Andreas; Vieth, Volker; Ramsthaler, H Frank; Pfischel, Klaus; Pfeiffer, Heidi; Geserick, Gunther; Schmeling, Andreas

    2016-01-01

    The dramatic rise in the number of refugees entering Germany means that age estimation for juveniles and young adults whose age is unclear but relevant to legal and official procedures has become more important than ever. Until now, whether and to what extent the combination of methods recommended by the Study Group on Forensic Age Diagnostics has resulted in a reduction of the range of scatter of the summarized age diagnosis has been unclear. Hand skeletal age, third molar mineralization stage and ossification stage of the medial clavicular epiphyses were determined for 307 individuals aged between 10 and 29 at time of death on whom autopsies were performed at the Institutes of Legal Medicine in Berlin, Frankfurt am Main and Hamburg between 2001 and 2011. To measure the range of scatter, linear regression analysis was used to calculate the standard error of estimate for each of the above methods individually and in combination. It was found that combining the above methods led to a reduction in the range of scatter. Due to various limitations of the study, the statistical parameters determined cannot, however, be used for age estimation practice. PMID:26934764

  2. Accuracy and precision of estimating age of gray wolves by tooth wear

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gipson, P.S.; Ballard, W.B.; Nowak, R.M.; Mech, L.D.

    2000-01-01

    We evaluated the accuracy and precision of tooth wear for aging gray wolves (Canis lupus) from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario based on 47 known-age or known-minimum-age skulls. Estimates of age using tooth wear and a commercial cementum annuli-aging service were useful for wolves up to 14 years old. The precision of estimates from cementum annuli was greater than estimates from tooth wear, but tooth wear estimates are more applicable in the field. We tended to overestimate age by 1-2 years and occasionally by 3 or 4 years. The commercial service aged young wolves with cementum annuli to within ?? 1 year of actual age, but under estimated ages of wolves ???9 years old by 1-3 years. No differences were detected in tooth wear patterns for wild wolves from Alaska, Minnesota, and Ontario, nor between captive and wild wolves. Tooth wear was not appropriate for aging wolves with an underbite that prevented normal wear or severely broken and missing teeth.

  3. How Accurate Are German Work-Time Data? A Comparison of Time-Diary Reports and Stylized Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Otterbach, Steffen; Sousa-Poza, Alfonso

    2010-01-01

    This study compares work time data collected by the German Time Use Survey (GTUS) using the diary method with stylized work time estimates from the GTUS, the German Socio-Economic Panel, and the German Microcensus. Although on average the differences between the time-diary data and the interview data is not large, our results show that significant…

  4. Postnatal growth and age estimation in Scotophilus kuhlii.

    PubMed

    Chen, Shiang-Fan; Huang, Shang-Shang; Lu, Dau-Jye; Shen, Tsung-Jen

    2016-01-01

    Adequate postnatal growth is important for young bats to develop skilled sensory and locomotor abilities, which are highly associated with their survival once independent. This study investigated the postnatal growth and development of Scotophilus kuhlii in captivity. An empirical growth curve was established, and the postnatal growth rate was quantified to derive an age-predictive equation. By further controlling the fostering conditions of twins, the differences in the development patterns between pups that received maternal care or were hand-reared were analyzed to determine whether the latter developed in the same manner as their maternally reared counterparts. Our results indicate that both forearm length and body mass increased rapidly and linearly during the first 4 weeks, after which the growth rate gradually decreased to reach a stable level. The first flight occurred at an average age of 39 days with a mean forearm length and body mass of 92.07% and 70.52% of maternal size, respectively. The developmental pattern of hand-reared pups, although similar to that of their maternally reared twin siblings, displayed a slightly faster growth rate in the 4th and 5th weeks. The heavier body mass of hand-reared pups during the pre-fledging period may cause higher wing loading, potentially influencing the flight performance and survival of the bats once independent. PMID:26600428

  5. Radiographic Estimation of Chronological Age using Mineralization of Third Molars in Coastal Andhra, India

    PubMed Central

    Babburi, Suresh; Nelakurthi, Hasini; Aparna, V; Soujanya, P; Kotti, Ajay Benarji; Ganipineni, Kiranmai

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is an important factor in establishing the identity of a person. Among various techniques, dental age estimation is helpful in estimating the age in children above 16 years of age. Determination of age using developmental stages of teeth is more useful than using tooth eruption. Materials and Methods: A total of 550 orthopantomographs of 248 males and 302 females aged between 15 and 22 years were taken and evaluated by Demirjian’s tooth mineralization stages. Statistical assessment was done using logistic regression analysis. Results: Complete apical closure of third molars was observed at the age of 20.4 years in 50% of males. Gender is also thought to influence mineralization and males showed early apical closure than females. Mean value testing is also done but showed influence of high and lower end age groups on age estimation. Conclusion: Finally, we conclude that, though the exact age of a person cannot be determined, the Demirjian’s stage at which 18 years of age is attained can be found out. PMID:26028903

  6. The utility of near infrared spectroscopy for age estimation of deepwater sharks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rigby, Cassandra L.; Wedding, Brett B.; Grauf, Steve; Simpfendorfer, Colin A.

    2014-12-01

    Reliable age information is vital for effective fisheries management, yet age determinations are absent for many deepwater sharks as they cannot be aged using traditional methods of growth bands counts. An alternative approach to ageing using near infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) was investigated using dorsal fin spines, vertebrae and fin clips of three species of deepwater sharks. Ages were successfully estimated for the two dogfish, Squalus megalops and Squalus montalbani, and NIRS spectra were correlated with body size in the catshark, Asymbolus pallidus. Correlations between estimated-ages of the dogfish dorsal fin spines and their NIRS spectra were good, with S. megalops R2=0.82 and S. montalbani R2=0.73. NIRS spectra from S. megalops vertebrae and fin clips that have no visible growth bands were correlated with estimated-ages, with R2=0.89 and 0.76, respectively. NIRS has the capacity to non-lethally estimate ages from fin spines and fin clips, and thus could significantly reduce the numbers of sharks that need to be lethally sampled for ageing studies. The detection of ageing materials by NIRS in poorly calcified deepwater shark vertebrae could potentially enable ageing of this group of sharks that are vulnerable to exploitation.

  7. A method for estimating the dynamical age of FR II-type radio sources from multi-frequency data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Machalski, J.; Chyży, K. T.; Stawarz, Ł.; Kozieł, D.

    2007-01-01

    by the jet's terminal shocks to the expanding lobes/cocoons. We briefly considered this issue and conclude that the broad-band single power-law form assumed here may be accurate enough for the age estimates, although most likely it does not strictly correspond to some well-defined realistic particle acceleration process. Instead, it should be considered as the simplest model approximation of the initial electron continuum, averaged over a very broad energy range and over the age of the source, with the effective spectral index that may be different for different sources, but within the relatively narrow range of p = 2.0-2.4 suggested by our modeling.

  8. Age estimation for shovelnose sturgeon: A cautionary note based on annulus formation in pectoral fin rays

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Whiteman, K.W.; Travnichek, V.H.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.; Papoulias, D.; Tillett, D.

    2004-01-01

    Numerous studies have examined the age and growth of shovelnose sturgeon Scaphirhynchus platorynchus, but only one study attempted to validate age estimation techniques. Therefore, our objective was to use marginal increment analysis to validate annulus formation in pectoral fin rays of shovelnose sturgeon collected from the Missouri River. We also compared the precision of age estimates between two different readers. Marginal increment distance indicated that for most of the populations an opaque band was laid down in pectoral fin rays during the summer. However, opaque bands were formed throughout the year in some individuals, which could be problematic when using fin rays for age estimation. The agreement of age estimates by two readers for shovelnose sturgeon was only 18%, and differences in ages between the two readers increased for older fish. The presence of split annuli, false annuli, spawning bands, imbedded rays, and deteriorating sections made individual growth rings difficult to separate. Our findings verified that opaque bands are formed annually during the summer in the pectoral fin rays of most shovelnose sturgeon, but some individuals form opaque bands during other times. Pectoral fin rays will probably continue to be the most practical method of age estimation in shovelnose sturgeon, but ages estimated by this method should be used with caution.

  9. Estimating survival rates with time series of standing age-structure data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Udevitz, Mark S.; Gogan, Peter J.

    2014-01-01

    It has long been recognized that age-structure data contain useful information for assessing the status and dynamics of wildlife populations. For example, age-specific survival rates can be estimated with just a single sample from the age distribution of a stable, stationary population. For a population that is not stable, age-specific survival rates can be estimated using techniques such as inverse methods that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data. However, estimation of survival rates using these methods typically requires numerical optimization, a relatively long time series of data, and smoothing or other constraints to provide useful estimates. We developed general models for possibly unstable populations that combine time series of age-structure data with other demographic data to provide explicit maximum likelihood estimators of age-specific survival rates with as few as two years of data. As an example, we applied these methods to estimate survival rates for female bison (Bison bison) in Yellowstone National Park, USA. This approach provides a simple tool for monitoring survival rates based on age-structure data.

  10. Accurate 3D rigid-body target motion and structure estimation by using GMTI/HRR with template information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Shunguang; Hong, Lang

    2008-04-01

    A framework of simultaneously estimating the motion and structure parameters of a 3D object by using high range resolution (HRR) and ground moving target indicator (GMTI) measurements with template information is given. By decoupling the motion and structure information and employing rigid-body constraints, we have developed the kinematic and measurement equations of the problem. Since the kinematic system is unobservable by using only one scan HRR and GMTI measurements, we designed an architecture to run the motion and structure filters in parallel by using multi-scan measurements. Moreover, to improve the estimation accuracy in large noise and/or false alarm environments, an interacting multi-template joint tracking (IMTJT) algorithm is proposed. Simulation results have shown that the averaged root mean square errors for both motion and structure state vectors have been significantly reduced by using the template information.

  11. Dense and accurate motion and strain estimation in high resolution speckle images using an image-adaptive approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cofaru, Corneliu; Philips, Wilfried; Van Paepegem, Wim

    2011-09-01

    Digital image processing methods represent a viable and well acknowledged alternative to strain gauges and interferometric techniques for determining full-field displacements and strains in materials under stress. This paper presents an image adaptive technique for dense motion and strain estimation using high-resolution speckle images that show the analyzed material in its original and deformed states. The algorithm starts by dividing the speckle image showing the original state into irregular cells taking into consideration both spatial and gradient image information present. Subsequently the Newton-Raphson digital image correlation technique is applied to calculate the corresponding motion for each cell. Adaptive spatial regularization in the form of the Geman- McClure robust spatial estimator is employed to increase the spatial consistency of the motion components of a cell with respect to the components of neighbouring cells. To obtain the final strain information, local least-squares fitting using a linear displacement model is performed on the horizontal and vertical displacement fields. To evaluate the presented image partitioning and strain estimation techniques two numerical and two real experiments are employed. The numerical experiments simulate the deformation of a specimen with constant strain across the surface as well as small rigid-body rotations present while real experiments consist specimens that undergo uniaxial stress. The results indicate very good accuracy of the recovered strains as well as better rotation insensitivity compared to classical techniques.

  12. A test of the Lamendin method of age estimation in South African canines.

    PubMed

    Ackermann, Anja; Steyn, Maryna

    2014-03-01

    Age estimation in unknown adult skeletons remains a considerable problem in forensic anthropology. In 1992, Lamendin et al. published a non-destructive method of age estimation on single rooted teeth. With this method, periodontosis and root transparency are judged against root height, and these are then used in regression formulae to estimate age. The aim of this study was to test the accuracy of the Lamendin method on a large sample of canines of South Africans, and if necessary to adapt the formulae for this population. A sample of known sex, age and population group was used. This included 537 upper and lower canines from 498 skulls, and included black males, black females, white males and white females. The age of the individuals ranged from 20 to 90 years. The original formulae gave relatively poor results, and in an attempt to obtain better accuracy the formulae were adapted with the current data. Even after adaptation of the formulae, the highest correlation between estimated age and actual age remained low (R(2)=0.41), with mean errors ranging between 12 and 15 years. Periodontosis was better correlated with age than root transparency. The accuracy of the method was found to be much lower than what was originally published, but probably reflects biological reality and is on a par with other methods of adult age estimation. PMID:24445081

  13. Strategic Decision-Making Learning from Label Distributions: An Approach for Facial Age Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Wei; Wang, Han

    2016-01-01

    Nowadays, label distribution learning is among the state-of-the-art methodologies in facial age estimation. It takes the age of each facial image instance as a label distribution with a series of age labels rather than the single chronological age label that is commonly used. However, this methodology is deficient in its simple decision-making criterion: the final predicted age is only selected at the one with maximum description degree. In many cases, different age labels may have very similar description degrees. Consequently, blindly deciding the estimated age by virtue of the highest description degree would miss or neglect other valuable age labels that may contribute a lot to the final predicted age. In this paper, we propose a strategic decision-making label distribution learning algorithm (SDM-LDL) with a series of strategies specialized for different types of age label distribution. Experimental results from the most popular aging face database, FG-NET, show the superiority and validity of all the proposed strategic decision-making learning algorithms over the existing label distribution learning and other single-label learning algorithms for facial age estimation. The inner properties of SDM-LDL are further explored with more advantages. PMID:27367691

  14. Age estimation of an Indian population by using the Kim's scoring system of occlusal tooth wear

    PubMed Central

    Telang, Lahari A.; Patil, Karthikeya; Mahima, V. G.

    2014-01-01

    Context: Age is one of the prime factors employed to establish the identity of an individual and the use of teeth for this purpose has been considered reliable. Tooth wear is widely accepted as a physiological consequence of aging and evaluation of tooth wear can be a simple and convenient tool to estimate age in adults. Aims: The present study was conducted to record the degree of tooth wear among Indian adults and to estimate their ages from the degree of tooth wear based on Kim's scoring system. Materials and Methods: Dental stone casts of 120 participants were used to assess the degree of occlusal tooth wear based on the criteria given by Kim et al. Statistical Analysis Used: The age of all subjects was estimated based on these scores using multiple regression analysis function. Results: The degree of tooth wear showed a significant positive correlation with age in each and every examined tooth of both males and females. The predicted age was within ± 5 years of actual age in 70% of males and 68.3% females, and within ± 3 years of actual age in 50% of males and 50.1% of females. Conclusions: Kim's scoring system has proven to be a useful tool in estimation of age using occlusal wear in an Indian population with a high level of accuracy in adults. PMID:24695780

  15. Estimating Geriatric Mortality after Injury Using Age, Injury Severity, and Performance of a Transfusion: The Geriatric Trauma Outcome Score

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Frank Z.; Wolf, Steven E.; Nakonezny, Paul A.; Minhajuddin, Abu; Rhodes, Ramona L.; Paulk, M. Elizabeth

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: A tool to determine the probability of mortality for severely injured geriatric patients is needed. Objective: We sought to create an easily calculated geriatric trauma prognostic score based on parameters available at the bedside to aid in mortality probability determination. Methods: All patients ≥65 years of age were identified from our Level I trauma center's registry between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2013. Measurements included age, Injury Severity score (ISS), units of packed red blood cells (PRBCs) transfused in the first 24 hours, and patients' mortality status at the end of their index hospitalization. As a first step, a logistic regression model with maximum likelihood estimation and robust standard errors was used to estimate the odds of mortality from age, ISS, and PRBCs after dichotomizing PRBCs as yes/no. We then constructed a Geriatric Trauma Outcome (GTO) score that became the sole predictor in the re-specified logistic regression model. Results: The sample (n=3841) mean age was 76.5±8.1 years and the mean ISS was 12.4±9.8. In-hospital mortality was 10.8%, and 11.9% received a transfusion by 24 hours. Based on the logistic regression model, the equation with the highest discriminatory ability to estimate probability of mortality was GTO Score=age+(2.5×ISS)+22 (if given PRBCs). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for this model was 0.82. Selected GTO scores and their related probability of dying were: 205=75%, 233=90%, 252=95%, 310=99%. The range of GTO scores was 67.5 (survivor) to 275.1 (died). Conclusion: The GTO model accurately estimates the probability of dying, and can be calculated at bedside by those possessing a working knowledge of ISS calculation. PMID:25974408

  16. Accurate estimate of the critical exponent nu for self-avoiding walks via a fast implementation of the pivot algorithm.

    PubMed

    Clisby, Nathan

    2010-02-01

    We introduce a fast implementation of the pivot algorithm for self-avoiding walks, which we use to obtain large samples of walks on the cubic lattice of up to 33x10{6} steps. Consequently the critical exponent nu for three-dimensional self-avoiding walks is determined to great accuracy; the final estimate is nu=0.587 597(7). The method can be adapted to other models of polymers with short-range interactions, on the lattice or in the continuum. PMID:20366773

  17. How old am I? Age estimation in living adults: a case report.

    PubMed

    Cattaneo, C; De Angelis, D; Ruspa, M; Gibelli, D; Cameriere, R; Grandi, M

    2008-12-01

    Age estimation is a common task in forensic medicine. Odontologists are frequently involved in the age assessment of human remains or living juveniles. The need to estimate the age of living individuals is becoming more frequent, because of the increasing number of immigrants (illegal or otherwise) without acceptable identification documents and with missing or uncertain birth dates. Whereas age estimation in subadults is usually performed by methods based on the physiological growth of bones and teeth, in the case of living adults age determination is more difficult, because body maturation has come to an end and the most commonly used procedures in forensics on human remains are too invasive for the living individual. The following case report aims at highlighting the difficulties of performing age estimation in the living adult and the importance of a multidisciplinary approach including forensic odontology: a middle-aged woman from Ethiopia who was supposed to be 62 years old (according to one set of documents), was removed from employment lists as she had reached the retirement age for Italy. However another set of documents indicated a younger age (46 years). Hormonal dosage of E2 (17-β estradiol) and FSH (Follicle Stimulating Hormone) showed an age close to the begininng of menopause. An experimental dental method, based on the decrease of canine pulp chamber with age, was performed in order to obtain more information: the result was an estimation of a 47-57 age range. Combined results suggested that it was more likely that the actual age of the woman was closer to 46 than to 62. PMID:22717788

  18. Accurate and Precise in Situ Zircon U-Pb age Dating With High Sample Throughput by Automated LA-SF-ICP-MS

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frei, D.; Gerdes, A.; Schersten, A.; Hollis, J. A.; Martina, F.; Knudsen, C.

    2006-12-01

    Zircon is an ubiquitous mineral in most crystalline rocks as well as clastic sediments. The high resistance to thermal resetting and physical erosion makes zircon an exceptionally useful mineral for precise and accurate dating of thermal geological events. For example, the analysis of the U-Pb ages of detrital zircon grains in clastic sediments is a powerful tool in sedimentary provenance studies. Accurate and precise U-Pb ages of > 100 zircon grains in a sample usually allow to detect all major sedimentary source age components with statistical confidence. U-Pb age dating of detrital zircons is generally the domain of high resolution ion microprobe techniques (high resolution SIMS), where relatively rapid in situ analysis can be achieved. The major limitations of these techniques are sample throughput (about 75 zircon age dates per 24 hours), the very high purchasing and operating costs of the equipment and the need for highly specialised personnel, resulting in high cost. These high costs usually impose uncomfortable restrictions on the number of samples that can be analysed in a provenance study. Here, we present a high sample throughput technique for highly accurate and precise U-Pb dating of zircons by laser ablation magnetic sectorfield inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-SF-ICP-MS). This technique takes advantage of recent progress in laser technology and the introduction of magnetic sectorfield ICP-MS instruments. Based on a ThermoFinnigan Element2 magnetic sctorfield ICP-MS and a New Wave UP 213 laser ablation system, this techniques allows U-Pb dating of zircon grains with precision, accuray and spatial resolution comparable to high resolution SIMS. Because an individual analysis is carried out in less than two minutes and all data is acquired automated in pre-set mode with only minimal operator presence, the sample throughput is an order of magnitude higher compared to high resolution SIMS. Furthermore, the purchasing and operating costs of

  19. Influence of sectioning location on age estimates from common carp dorsal spines

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Watkins, Carson J.; Klein, Zachary B.; Terrazas, Marc M.; Quist, Michael

    2015-01-01

    Dorsal spines have been shown to provide precise age estimates for Common CarpCyprinus carpio and are commonly used by management agencies to gain information on Common Carp populations. However, no previous studies have evaluated variation in the precision of age estimates obtained from different sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. We evaluated the precision, relative readability, and distribution of age estimates obtained from various sectioning locations along Common Carp dorsal spines. Dorsal spines from 192 Common Carp were sectioned at the base (section 1), immediately distal to the basal section (section 2), and at 25% (section 3), 50% (section 4), and 75% (section 5) of the total length of the dorsal spine. The exact agreement and within-1-year agreement among readers was highest and the coefficient of variation lowest for section 2. In general, age estimates derived from sections 2 and 3 had similar age distributions and displayed the highest concordance in age estimates with section 1. Our results indicate that sections taken at ≤ 25% of the total length of the dorsal spine can be easily interpreted and provide precise estimates of Common Carp age. The greater consistency in age estimates obtained from section 2 indicates that by using a standard sectioning location, fisheries scientists can expect age-based estimates of population metrics to be more comparable and thus more useful for understanding Common Carp population dynamics.

  20. Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840).

    PubMed

    Usseglio, Paolo; Friedlander, Alan M; DeMartini, Edward E; Schuhbauer, Anna; Schemmel, Eva; Salinas de Léon, Pelayo

    2015-01-01

    The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2-3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L ∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = - 1.7 years) show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female) was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F), with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%). Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability. PMID:26401463

  1. Improved estimates of age, growth and reproduction for the regionally endemic Galapagos sailfin grouper Mycteroperca olfax (Jenyns, 1840)

    PubMed Central

    Friedlander, Alan M.; DeMartini, Edward E.; Schuhbauer, Anna; Schemmel, Eva; Salinas de Léon, Pelayo

    2015-01-01

    The Galapagos Sailfin grouper, Mycteroperca olfax, locally known as bacalao and listed as vulnerable by the IUCN, is culturally, economically, and ecologically important to the Galapagos archipelago and its people. It is regionally endemic to the Eastern Tropical Pacific, and, while an important fishery resource that has shown substantial declines in recent years, to date no effective management regulations are in place to ensure the sustainability of the Galapagos fishery for this species. Previous estimates of longevity and size at maturity for bacalao are inconsistent with estimates for congeners, which brings into question the accuracy of prior estimates. We set out to assess the age, growth, and reproductive biology of bacalao in order to provide more accurate life history information to inform more effective fisheries management for this species. The oldest fish in our sample was 21 years old, which is 2–3 times greater than previously reported estimates of longevity. Parameter estimates for the von Bertalanffy growth function (k = 0.11, L∞ = 110 cm TL, and to = − 1.7 years) show bacalao to grow much slower and attain substantially larger asymptotic maximum length than previous studies. Mean size at maturity (as female) was estimated at 65.3 cm TL, corresponding to a mean age of 6.5 years. We found that sex ratios were extremely female biased (0.009 M:1F), with a large majority of the individuals in our experimental catch being immature (79%). Our results show that bacalao grow slower, live longer, and mature at a much larger size and greater age than previously thought, with very few mature males in the population. These findings have important implications for the fishery of this valuable species and provide the impetus for a long-overdue species management plan to ensure its long-term sustainability. PMID:26401463

  2. Age Estimation Based on Children's Voice: A Fuzzy-Based Decision Fusion Strategy

    PubMed Central

    Ting, Hua-Nong

    2014-01-01

    Automatic estimation of a speaker's age is a challenging research topic in the area of speech analysis. In this paper, a novel approach to estimate a speaker's age is presented. The method features a “divide and conquer” strategy wherein the speech data are divided into six groups based on the vowel classes. There are two reasons behind this strategy. First, reduction in the complicated distribution of the processing data improves the classifier's learning performance. Second, different vowel classes contain complementary information for age estimation. Mel-frequency cepstral coefficients are computed for each group and single layer feed-forward neural networks based on self-adaptive extreme learning machine are applied to the features to make a primary decision. Subsequently, fuzzy data fusion is employed to provide an overall decision by aggregating the classifier's outputs. The results are then compared with a number of state-of-the-art age estimation methods. Experiments conducted based on six age groups including children aged between 7 and 12 years revealed that fuzzy fusion of the classifier's outputs resulted in considerable improvement of up to 53.33% in age estimation accuracy. Moreover, the fuzzy fusion of decisions aggregated the complementary information of a speaker's age from various speech sources. PMID:25006595

  3. Accuracy and sampling error of two age estimation techniques using rib histomorphometry on a modern sample.

    PubMed

    García-Donas, Julieta G; Dyke, Jeffrey; Paine, Robert R; Nathena, Despoina; Kranioti, Elena F

    2016-02-01

    Most age estimation methods are proven problematic when applied in highly fragmented skeletal remains. Rib histomorphometry is advantageous in such cases; yet it is vital to test and revise existing techniques particularly when used in legal settings (Crowder and Rosella, 2007). This study tested Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994) histological age estimation methods on a Modern Greek sample using different sampling sites. Six left 4th ribs of known age and sex were selected from a modern skeletal collection. Each rib was cut into three equal segments. Two thin sections were acquired from each segment. A total of 36 thin sections were prepared and analysed. Four variables (cortical area, intact and fragmented osteon density and osteon population density) were calculated for each section and age was estimated according to Stout & Paine (1992) and Stout et al. (1994). The results showed that both methods produced a systemic underestimation of the individuals (to a maximum of 43 years) although a general improvement in accuracy levels was observed when applying the Stout et al. (1994) formula. There is an increase of error rates with increasing age with the oldest individual showing extreme differences between real age and estimated age. Comparison of the different sampling sites showed small differences between the estimated ages suggesting that any fragment of the rib could be used without introducing significant error. Yet, a larger sample should be used to confirm these results. PMID:26698389

  4. Dental age estimation of growing children by measurement of open apices: A Malaysian formula

    PubMed Central

    Cugati, Navaneetha; Kumaresan, Ramesh; Srinivasan, Balamanikanda; Karthikeyan, Priyadarshini

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is of prime importance in forensic science and clinical dentistry. Age estimation based on teeth development is one reliable approach. Many radiographic methods are proposed on the Western population for estimating dental age, and a similar assessment was found to be inadequate in Malaysian population. Hence, this study aims at formulating a regression model for dental age estimation in Malaysian children population using Cameriere's method. Materials and Methods: Orthopantomographs of 421 Malaysian children aged between 5 and 16 years involving all the three ethnic origins were digitalized and analyzed using Cameriere's method of age estimation. The subjects’ age was modeled as a function of the morphological variables, gender (g), ethnicity, sum of normalized open apices (s), number of tooth with completed root formation (N0) and the first-order interaction between s and N0. Results: The variables that contributed significantly to the fit were included in the regression model, yielding the following formula: Age = 11.368-0.345g + 0.553No -1.096s - 0.380s.No, where g is a variable, 1 for males and 2 for females. The equation explained 87.1% of total deviance. Conclusion: The results obtained insist on reframing the original Cameriere's formula to suit the population of the nation specifically. Further studies are to be conducted to evaluate the applicability of this formula on a larger sample size. PMID:26816464

  5. How accurate and precise are limited sampling strategies in estimating exposure to mycophenolic acid in people with autoimmune disease?

    PubMed

    Abd Rahman, Azrin N; Tett, Susan E; Staatz, Christine E

    2014-03-01

    Mycophenolic acid (MPA) is a potent immunosuppressant agent, which is increasingly being used in the treatment of patients with various autoimmune diseases. Dosing to achieve a specific target MPA area under the concentration-time curve from 0 to 12 h post-dose (AUC12) is likely to lead to better treatment outcomes in patients with autoimmune disease than a standard fixed-dose strategy. This review summarizes the available published data around concentration monitoring strategies for MPA in patients with autoimmune disease and examines the accuracy and precision of methods reported to date using limited concentration-time points to estimate MPA AUC12. A total of 13 studies were identified that assessed the correlation between single time points and MPA AUC12 and/or examined the predictive performance of limited sampling strategies in estimating MPA AUC12. The majority of studies investigated mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) rather than the enteric-coated mycophenolate sodium (EC-MPS) formulation of MPA. Correlations between MPA trough concentrations and MPA AUC12 estimated by full concentration-time profiling ranged from 0.13 to 0.94 across ten studies, with the highest associations (r (2) = 0.90-0.94) observed in lupus nephritis patients. Correlations were generally higher in autoimmune disease patients compared with renal allograft recipients and higher after MMF compared with EC-MPS intake. Four studies investigated use of a limited sampling strategy to predict MPA AUC12 determined by full concentration-time profiling. Three studies used a limited sampling strategy consisting of a maximum combination of three sampling time points with the latest sample drawn 3-6 h after MMF intake, whereas the remaining study tested all combinations of sampling times. MPA AUC12 was best predicted when three samples were taken at pre-dose and at 1 and 3 h post-dose with a mean bias and imprecision of 0.8 and 22.6 % for multiple linear regression analysis and of -5.5 and 23.0 % for

  6. Radiological age estimation: based on third molar mineralization and eruption in Turkish children and young adults.

    PubMed

    Karadayi, Beytullah; Kaya, Ahsen; Kolusayın, Melek Ozlem; Karadayi, Sükriye; Afsin, Hüseyin; Ozaslan, Abdi

    2012-11-01

    Radiographic evaluation of mineralization and eruption stages of third molars using dental panoramic radiographies can be an efficient tool for chronological age estimation in both forensic sciences and legal medicine. The third molar tooth is utilized for dental age estimation about the age span of 15-23 years because it represents the only tooth still in development. The aim of this study is to obtain and analyze data regarding third molar development and eruption in Turkish population for dental age estimation. A total of 744 dental panoramic radiographies of 394 female and 350 male subjects aged between 8 and 22 years were examined. Third molar development was determined according to the Nolla classification system, and eruption was assessed relative to the alveolar bone level. Mandibular and maxillary third molars were generally found at similar stages of development on both sides. Nolla stage 6 (completed crown calcification) was reached at around the age of 15 in both maxillary and mandibular third molars in both sexes. Alveolar emergence was at around the age of 16 in males and around age of 17 in females. Although third molars' eruption shows greater variability than development of third molars, data which were obtained from this study about eruption of these teeth can be supportive to development data for age estimation. PMID:23010906

  7. The ability of parents to accurately report concussion occurrence in their bantam-aged minor hockey league children

    PubMed Central

    Coghlin, Craig J; Myles, Bryan D; Howitt, Scott D.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the ability of hockey parents/guardians to recognize concussion symptoms in their 13–14 year old (Bantam-aged) children. Outcome Measures: The outcome measures were the ability to recognize different signs and symptoms listed on the Sport Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT) as well as 8 detractors consisting of signs and symptoms not associated with post concussive syndrome. Additional questions assessing the parents’ knowledge of concussion management and recognition abilities were also posed. Participants: Parents of Bantam-aged minor hockey league athletes volunteered for the study. Methods: The study investigators distributed questionnaires during the warm up period or following their children’s games to the study participants. Following questionnaire completion, participants were provided with an information package outlining the correct signs and symptoms of concussion. Results: The mean number of correct responses to signs and symptoms of concussion was 21.25/25 for the mothers and 20.41/25 for the fathers. The mean number of detractors identified as not associated with concussion was 5.93/8 for the mothers and 4.85/8 for the fathers, indicating that mothers were more capable of recognizing the signs and symptoms than fathers. An analysis of variance including sporting experience in the model did not strengthen the relationship between parent gender and test outcome. Conclusion: This investigation revealed that there is still a disconnect in regards to key components of recognizing a concussion, such as difficulty with sleep, disorientation symptoms, and emotional irritability. Mothers have displayed an ability to better differentiate between true and false signs and symptoms of concussion as compared to fathers. Continued education and awareness of mild traumatic brain injury in athletes should address the misconceptions amongst parents in regards to the true signs and symptoms of a concussion. PMID

  8. Accurate spike estimation from noisy calcium signals for ultrafast three-dimensional imaging of large neuronal populations in vivo

    PubMed Central

    Deneux, Thomas; Kaszas, Attila; Szalay, Gergely; Katona, Gergely; Lakner, Tamás; Grinvald, Amiram; Rózsa, Balázs; Vanzetta, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    Extracting neuronal spiking activity from large-scale two-photon recordings remains challenging, especially in mammals in vivo, where large noises often contaminate the signals. We propose a method, MLspike, which returns the most likely spike train underlying the measured calcium fluorescence. It relies on a physiological model including baseline fluctuations and distinct nonlinearities for synthetic and genetically encoded indicators. Model parameters can be either provided by the user or estimated from the data themselves. MLspike is computationally efficient thanks to its original discretization of probability representations; moreover, it can also return spike probabilities or samples. Benchmarked on extensive simulations and real data from seven different preparations, it outperformed state-of-the-art algorithms. Combined with the finding obtained from systematic data investigation (noise level, spiking rate and so on) that photonic noise is not necessarily the main limiting factor, our method allows spike extraction from large-scale recordings, as demonstrated on acousto-optical three-dimensional recordings of over 1,000 neurons in vivo. PMID:27432255

  9. Accurate spike estimation from noisy calcium signals for ultrafast three-dimensional imaging of large neuronal populations in vivo.

    PubMed

    Deneux, Thomas; Kaszas, Attila; Szalay, Gergely; Katona, Gergely; Lakner, Tamás; Grinvald, Amiram; Rózsa, Balázs; Vanzetta, Ivo

    2016-01-01

    Extracting neuronal spiking activity from large-scale two-photon recordings remains challenging, especially in mammals in vivo, where large noises often contaminate the signals. We propose a method, MLspike, which returns the most likely spike train underlying the measured calcium fluorescence. It relies on a physiological model including baseline fluctuations and distinct nonlinearities for synthetic and genetically encoded indicators. Model parameters can be either provided by the user or estimated from the data themselves. MLspike is computationally efficient thanks to its original discretization of probability representations; moreover, it can also return spike probabilities or samples. Benchmarked on extensive simulations and real data from seven different preparations, it outperformed state-of-the-art algorithms. Combined with the finding obtained from systematic data investigation (noise level, spiking rate and so on) that photonic noise is not necessarily the main limiting factor, our method allows spike extraction from large-scale recordings, as demonstrated on acousto-optical three-dimensional recordings of over 1,000 neurons in vivo. PMID:27432255

  10. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement.

    PubMed

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  11. Human Age Estimation Method Robust to Camera Sensor and/or Face Movement

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Dat Tien; Cho, So Ra; Pham, Tuyen Danh; Park, Kang Ryoung

    2015-01-01

    Human age can be employed in many useful real-life applications, such as customer service systems, automatic vending machines, entertainment, etc. In order to obtain age information, image-based age estimation systems have been developed using information from the human face. However, limitations exist for current age estimation systems because of the various factors of camera motion and optical blurring, facial expressions, gender, etc. Motion blurring can usually be presented on face images by the movement of the camera sensor and/or the movement of the face during image acquisition. Therefore, the facial feature in captured images can be transformed according to the amount of motion, which causes performance degradation of age estimation systems. In this paper, the problem caused by motion blurring is addressed and its solution is proposed in order to make age estimation systems robust to the effects of motion blurring. Experiment results show that our method is more efficient for enhancing age estimation performance compared with systems that do not employ our method. PMID:26334282

  12. Accurate age scale of the Dome Fuji ice core, Antarctica from O2/N2 ratio of trapped air

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kawamura, K.; Aoki, S.; Nakazawa, T.; Suzuki, K.; Parrenin, F.

    2012-04-01

    Chronology of the first Dome Fuji deep ice core (core length: 2,500 m, ice thickness: 3,035 m) for the age range from 80 kyr to 340 kyr ago was established by orbital tuning of measured O2/N2 ratios in trapped air to local summer insolation, with precision better than about 2,000 years (Kawamura et al., 2007). The O2/N2 ratios found in polar ice cores are slightly lower than the atmospheric ratio because of size-dependent molecular fractionation during bubble close-off. The magnitude of this gas fractionation is believed to be governed by the magnitude of snow metamorphism when the layer was originally at the surface, which in turn is controlled by local summer insolation (Fujita et al., 2009). A strong advantage of the O2/N2 chronology is that there is no need to assume a lag between climatic records in the ice core and orbital forcings, becacuse O2/N2 ratios record local insolation through physical processes. Accuracy of the chronology was validated by comparing the O2/N2 chronology with U-Th radiometric chronology of speleothem records (Cheng et al., 2009) for the ends of Terminations II, III and IV, as well as several large climatic events, for which both ice-core CH4 and speleothem δ18O (a proxy for precipitation) show abrupt shifts as seen in the last glacial period. All ages from O2/N2 and U-Th chronology agreed with each other within ~2,000 yr. The O2/N2 chronology permits comparisons between Antarctic climate, greenhouse gases, astronomically calculated orbital parameters, and radiometrically-dated sea level and monsoon records. Here, we completed the measurements of O2/N2 ratios of the second Dome Fuji ice core, which reached bedrock, for the range from 2,400 to 3,028 m (320 - 700 kyr ago) at approximately 2,000-year time resolution. We made significant improvements in ice core storage practices and mass spectrometry. In particular, the ice core samples were stored at about -50 ° C until the air extraction, except during short periods of transportation

  13. Using a near-infrared spectrometer to estimate the age of Anopheles mosquitoes exposed to pyrethroids

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as ,7 or $7 d ol...

  14. Comparison of rainbow smelt age estimates from fin rays and otoliths

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Walsh, M.G.; Maloy, A.P.; O'Brien, T. P.

    2008-01-01

    Rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax, although nonnative, are an important component of the offshore food web in the Laurentian Great Lakes. In Lake Ontario, we estimate ages of rainbow smelt annually to study population dynamics such as year-class strength and age-specific growth and mortality. Since the early 1980s, we have used pectoral fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages, but the sectioning and mounting of fin rays are time and labor intensive. Our objective was to assess the feasibility of using otoliths rather than fin rays to estimate rainbow smelt ages. Three readers interpreted the ages of 172 rainbow smelt (60-198 mm total length) based on thin sections of pectoral fin rays, whole otoliths with no preparation, and whole otoliths that had been cleared for 1 month in a 70:30 ethanol : glycerin solution. Bias was lower and precision was greater for fin rays than for otoliths; these results were consistent for comparisons within readers (first and second readings by one individual; three readers were used) and between readers (one reading for each reader within a pair). Both otolith methods appeared to misclassify age-1 rainbow smelt. Fin ray ages had the highest precision and provided the best approximation of age estimates inferred from the Lake Ontario population's length frequency distribution and from our understanding of this population. ?? American Fisheries Society 2008.

  15. A new method for estimating species age supports the coexistence of malaria parasites and their Mammalian hosts.

    PubMed

    Silva, Joana C; Egan, Amy; Arze, Cesar; Spouge, John L; Harris, David G

    2015-05-01

    Species in the genus Plasmodium cause malaria in humans and infect a variety of mammals and other vertebrates. Currently, estimated ages for several mammalian Plasmodium parasites differ by as much as one order of magnitude, an inaccuracy that frustrates reliable estimation of evolutionary rates of disease-related traits. We developed a novel statistical approach to dating the relative age of evolutionary lineages, based on Total Least Squares regression. We validated this lineage dating approach by applying it to the genus Drosophila. Using data from the Drosophila 12 Genomes project, our approach accurately reconstructs the age of well-established Drosophila clades, including the speciation event that led to the subgenera Drosophila and Sophophora, and age of the melanogaster species subgroup. We applied this approach to hundreds of loci from seven mammalian Plasmodium species. We demonstrate the existence of a molecular clock specific to individual Plasmodium proteins, and estimate the relative age of mammalian-infecting Plasmodium. These analyses indicate that: 1) the split between the human parasite Plasmodium vivax and P. knowlesi, from Old World monkeys, occurred 6.1 times earlier than that between P. falciparum and P. reichenowi, parasites of humans and chimpanzees, respectively; and 2) mammalian Plasmodium parasites originated 22 times earlier than the split between P. falciparum and P. reichenowi. Calibrating the absolute divergence times for Plasmodium with eukaryotic substitution rates, we show that the split between P. falciparum and P. reichenowi occurred 3.0-5.5 Ma, and that mammalian Plasmodium parasites originated over 64 Ma. Our results indicate that mammalian-infecting Plasmodium evolved contemporaneously with their hosts, with little evidence for parasite host-switching on an evolutionary scale, and provide a solid timeframe within which to place the evolution of new Plasmodium species. PMID:25589738

  16. A New Method for Estimating Species Age Supports the Coexistence of Malaria Parasites and Their Mammalian Hosts

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Joana C.; Egan, Amy; Arze, Cesar; Spouge, John L.; Harris, David G.

    2015-01-01

    Species in the genus Plasmodium cause malaria in humans and infect a variety of mammals and other vertebrates. Currently, estimated ages for several mammalian Plasmodium parasites differ by as much as one order of magnitude, an inaccuracy that frustrates reliable estimation of evolutionary rates of disease-related traits. We developed a novel statistical approach to dating the relative age of evolutionary lineages, based on Total Least Squares regression. We validated this lineage dating approach by applying it to the genus Drosophila. Using data from the Drosophila 12 Genomes project, our approach accurately reconstructs the age of well-established Drosophila clades, including the speciation event that led to the subgenera Drosophila and Sophophora, and age of the melanogaster species subgroup. We applied this approach to hundreds of loci from seven mammalian Plasmodium species. We demonstrate the existence of a molecular clock specific to individual Plasmodium proteins, and estimate the relative age of mammalian-infecting Plasmodium. These analyses indicate that: 1) the split between the human parasite Plasmodium vivax and P. knowlesi, from Old World monkeys, occurred 6.1 times earlier than that between P. falciparum and P. reichenowi, parasites of humans and chimpanzees, respectively; and 2) mammalian Plasmodium parasites originated 22 times earlier than the split between P. falciparum and P. reichenowi. Calibrating the absolute divergence times for Plasmodium with eukaryotic substitution rates, we show that the split between P. falciparum and P. reichenowi occurred 3.0–5.5 Ma, and that mammalian Plasmodium parasites originated over 64 Ma. Our results indicate that mammalian-infecting Plasmodium evolved contemporaneously with their hosts, with little evidence for parasite host-switching on an evolutionary scale, and provide a solid timeframe within which to place the evolution of new Plasmodium species. PMID:25589738

  17. How reliable are the risk estimates for X-ray examinations in forensic age estimations? A safety update.

    PubMed

    Ramsthaler, F; Proschek, P; Betz, W; Verhoff, M A

    2009-05-01

    Possible biological side effects of exposure to X-rays are stochastic effects such as carcinogenesis and genetic alterations. In recent years, a number of new studies have been published about the special cancer risk that children may suffer from diagnostic X-rays. Children and adolescents who constitute many of the probands in forensic age-estimation proceedings are considerably more sensitive to the carcinogenic risks of ionizing radiation than adults. Established doses for X-ray examinations in forensic age estimations vary from less than 0.1 microSv (left hand X-ray) up to more than 800 microSv (computed tomography). Computed tomography in children, as a relatively high-dose procedure, is of particular interest because the doses involved are near to the lower limit of the doses observed and analyzed in A-bombing survivor studies. From these studies, direct epidemiological data exist concerning the lifetime cancer risk. Since there is no medical indication for forensic age examinations, it should be stressed that only safe methods are generally acceptable. This paper reviews current knowledge on cancer risks associated with diagnostic radiation and aims to help forensic experts, dentists, and pediatricians evaluate the risk from radiation when using X-rays in age-estimation procedures. PMID:19153756

  18. The Ages of A-Stars. I. Interferometric Observations and Age Estimates for Stars in the Ursa Major Moving Group

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jones, Jeremy; White, R. J.; Boyajian, T.; Schaefer, G.; Baines, E.; Ireland, M.; Patience, J.; ten Brummelaar, T.; McAlister, H.; Ridgway, S. T.; Sturmann, J.; Sturmann, L.; Turner, N.; Farrington, C.; Goldfinger, P. J.

    2015-11-01

    We have observed and spatially resolved a set of seven A-type stars in the nearby Ursa Major moving group with the Classic, CLIMB, and PAVO beam combiners on the Center for High Angular Resolution Astronomy Array. At least four of these stars have large rotational velocities (v{sin}i ≳ 170 {km} {{{s}}}-1) and are expected to be oblate. These interferometric measurements, the stars’ observed photometric energy distributions, and v{sin}i values are used to computationally construct model oblate stars from which stellar properties (inclination, rotational velocity, and the radius and effective temperature as a function of latitude, etc.) are determined. The results are compared with MESA stellar evolution models to determine masses and ages. The value of this new technique is that it enables the estimation of the fundamental properties of rapidly rotating stars without the need to fully image the star. It can thus be applied to stars with sizes comparable to the interferometric resolution limit as opposed to those that are several times larger than the limit. Under the assumption of coevality, the spread in ages can be used as a test of both the prescription presented here and the MESA evolutionary code for rapidly rotating stars. With our validated technique, we combine these age estimates and determine the age of the moving group to be 414 ± 23 Myr, which is consistent with, but much more precise than previous estimates.

  19. Use of soil catena field data for estimating relative ages of moraines

    SciTech Connect

    Birkeland, P.W.; Berry, M.E. ); Swanson, D.K. )

    1991-03-01

    Soils at the crests of moraines are commonly used to estimate the relative ages of moraines. However, for various pedologic and geomorphic reasons, soil development at crest sites may not truly reflect the time since moraine formation; for example, some crest soils on moraines of greatly different age are similar in morphology and development. Soil catena data for soils at several sites aligned downslope from the crest can greatly improve on the usefulness of soil data for estimating moraine ages. For this purpose, the authors use the weighted mean catena profile development index, which condenses field data for all of the soils in each catena into a single value.

  20. Age estimation using lower permanent first molars on a panoramic radiograph: A digital image analysis

    PubMed Central

    Talabani, Ranjdar M.; Baban, Mohammed T.; Mahmood, Mohammed A.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: A study was carried out to analyze the efficacy and practical application for age estimation using digital panoramic radiograph to exploit image analysis to obtain metric measurement of morphological parameters of permanent mandibular first molar on Sulaimani population. Materials and Methods: In the present study a population of known age and sex was studied and subjected to digital panoramic radiographic examination. The correlation between the reduction of coronal pulp cavity and chronological age was examined in a sample of 96 individuals distributed into four age groups: 20-29 years (29 cases), 30-39 years (29 cases), 40-49 years (26 cases) and 50-59 years (12 cases). The height (mm) of the crown (CH = coronal height) and the height (mm) of coronal pulp cavity (CPCH = coronal pulp cavity height) of 96 of first molars from all subjects was measured. The tooth–coronal index (TCI) after Ikeda et al. was computed for each tooth and regressed on real age. Results: ANOVA was used to show the strength of relation between the age and TCI (P = 0.0000). The correlation coefficient (r2) was 0.49, which mean there is strong negative linear regression between age and TCI with the r2, regarding predicting age using TCI value, after the following equation calculated, Predicted age = 3.78 – (0.064 TCI) showed that there is no significant difference between real age and estimated age. Conclusion: There is a strong negative liner relationship between TCIs of mandibular first molars with chronological age of Sulaimani population, and age of individuals can therefore be estimated with a good degree of accuracy using regression equations. PMID:26005307

  1. A method for estimating age of Danish medieval sub-adults based on long bone length.

    PubMed

    Primeau, Charlotte; Friis, Laila; Sejrsen, Birgitte; Lynnerup, Niels

    2012-07-01

    The preferred method for aging archaeological sub-adult skeletons is by dental examination. In cases where no dental records are available, age estimation may be performed according to epiphyseal union, skeletal elements or diaphyseal lengths. Currently no data have been produced specifically for aging archaeological Danish sub-adults from the medieval period based on diaphyseal lengths. The problem with using data on Danish samples, which have been derived from a different population, is the possibility of skewing age estimates. In this study 58 Danish archaeological sub-adults were examined, aged from approximately six years to twenty-one years. The samples were aged according to two dental methods: Haavikko and Ubelaker. Regression formulae were constructed for aging according to their diaphyseal lengths both for individual long bones and combinations of upper and lower long bones. This study indicated that with the regression formulae developed, estimation of age can be done with reasonable results on Danish sub-adults. The Danish data were then compared to data from a different archaeological sample and a modern sample. It showed that the modern data indicated a consistently lower age compared to this sample which increased until reaching a maximum of nearly five years and six months. When comparing the archaeological data to this study, the growth profile crossed over at 12.5 years with a maximum age difference before the cross point of two years and three months lower for the archaeological data. After the cross point there was a maximum difference of three years and four months higher for the archaeological data. This study has shown the importance of using data for age estimation for archaeological material which has been developed specifically for that population. In addition it has presented a possible solution for Danish sub-adult material when dental material is not available. PMID:22928354

  2. Shorter sampling periods and accurate estimates of milk volume and components are possible for pasture based dairy herds milked with automated milking systems.

    PubMed

    Kamphuis, Claudia; Burke, Jennie K; Taukiri, Sarah; Petch, Susan-Fay; Turner, Sally-Anne

    2016-08-01

    Dairy cows grazing pasture and milked using automated milking systems (AMS) have lower milking frequencies than indoor fed cows milked using AMS. Therefore, milk recording intervals used for herd testing indoor fed cows may not be suitable for cows on pasture based farms. We hypothesised that accurate standardised 24 h estimates could be determined for AMS herds with milk recording intervals of less than the Gold Standard (48 hs), but that the optimum milk recording interval would depend on the herd average for milking frequency. The Gold Standard protocol was applied on five commercial dairy farms with AMS, between December 2011 and February 2013. From 12 milk recording test periods, involving 2211 cow-test days and 8049 cow milkings, standardised 24 h estimates for milk volume and milk composition were calculated for the Gold Standard protocol and compared with those collected during nine alternative sampling scenarios, including six shorter sampling periods and three in which a fixed number of milk samples per cow were collected. Results infer a 48 h milk recording protocol is unnecessarily long for collecting accurate estimates during milk recording on pasture based AMS farms. Collection of two milk samples only per cow was optimal in terms of high concordance correlation coefficients for milk volume and components and a low proportion of missed cow-test days. Further research is required to determine the effects of diurnal variations in milk composition on standardised 24 h estimates for milk volume and components, before a protocol based on a fixed number of samples could be considered. Based on the results of this study New Zealand have adopted a split protocol for herd testing based on the average milking frequency for the herd (NZ Herd Test Standard 8100:2015). PMID:27600967

  3. Clonal diversity and estimation of relative clone age: application to agrobiodiversity of yam (Dioscorea rotundata)

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Clonal propagation is a particular reproductive system found in both the plant and animal kingdoms, from human parasites to clonally propagated crops. Clonal diversity provides information about plant and animal evolutionary history, i.e. how clones spread, or the age of a particular clone. In plants, this could provide valuable information about agrobiodiversity dynamics and more broadly about the evolutionary history of a particular crop. We studied the evolutionary history of yam, Dioscorea rotundata. In Africa, Yam is cultivated by tuber clonal propagation. Results We used 12 microsatellite markers to identify intra-clonal diversity in yam varieties. We then used this diversity to assess the relative ages of clones. Using simulations, we assessed how Approximate Bayesian Computation could use clonal diversity to estimate the age of a clone depending on the size of the sample, the number of independent samples and the number of markers. We then applied this approach to our particular dataset and showed that the relative ages of varieties could be estimated, and that each variety could be ranked by age. Conclusions We give a first estimation of clone age in an approximate Bayesian framework. However the precise estimation of clone age depends on the precision of the mutation rate. We provide useful information on agrobiodiversity dynamics and suggest recurrent creation of varietal diversity in a clonally propagated crop. PMID:24219837

  4. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in canines by peri-apical X-rays.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Belcastro, Maria Giovanna; Bonfiglioli, Benedetta; Rastelli, Elisa; Cingolani, Mariano

    2007-01-01

    Estimation of age in individuals has received considerable attention in forensic science, in which it is a widely used method for individual identification, together with paleo-demographic analyses to establish mortality patterns in past populations. The present investigation, which is a continuation of a previously published pilot study, was conducted to examine the possible application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical images as an indicator of age at death. A total of 200 peri-apical X-rays of upper and lower canines were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. They belong to the Frassetto osteological collection of Sassari (Sardinia) and are housed in the Museum of Anthropology, Department of Experimental and Evolutionistic Biology, University of Bologna. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio on upper (x(1)) and lower (x(2)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intraobserver measurements. Statistical analysis was performed in order to obtain multiple regression formulae for dental age calculation, with chronological age as dependent variable, and gender, and upper and lower canines as independent variables. Stepwise regression analysis showed that gender did not contribute significantly to the fit (p=0.881) whereas variables x(1) and x(2) and the first-order interaction between them did. These two variables explained 92.5% of variations in estimated chronological age and the residual standard error was 4.06 years. Lastly, two simple linear regression equations were obtained for age estimation using canines from the maxilla and mandible separately. Both models explained 86% of variations in estimated chronological age and allowed an age-at-death estimate with a residual standard error of about 5.4 years. PMID:17209930

  5. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D B

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  6. Computed tomography evaluation of the iliac crest apophysis: age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Inci, Ercan; Erdil, Irem; Hocaoglu, Elif; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Kazimoglu, Cemal; Reisoglu, Ali; Can, Ismail Ozgur

    2016-07-01

    Determination of the ossification properties of the iliac apophysis is important not only in the clinical evaluation of patients undergoing orthopedic surgery but also in age estimation studies for forensic purposes. The literature includes both anthropological and radiological (conventional radiography, ultrasonography, and magnetic resonance imaging modalities) investigations of the different staging systems used for these purposes. In this study, we assessed the utility of computed tomography (CT) of the iliac crest apophysis in estimating forensic age. CT scans of the iliac crest apophysis of 380 patients (187 females, 193 males, and 10-29 years of age) were evaluated according to the four-stage system. Further subclassification did not give data properly due to the reference length measurement of the iliac wing with CT. Thus, in our series, stage 2 was first seen in 12 years of age and stage 3 in those 14 years of age in both sexes and on both sides of the pelvis. Stage 4 was first seen in 17 years of both sexes but only on the right side; on the left side, it appeared in females 18 years of age and in males 17 years of age. Present data was found consistent with previous pelvic radiographic findings. First seen ages for stage 2 and 3 are 12 and 14 years respectively which presented valuable information for legally important age thresholds. However, disadvantages of CT, including high-dose radiation exposure to gonads, the difficulty of evaluating the iliac crest, and the age boundary of 17 years, could make this method infeasible, as compared with hand wrist and pelvic radiographic methods. CT of the iliac crest has probably a greater utility where preexisting CT scans of the pelvic region are available, and it may be considered as a supportive method for age-estimation purposes. PMID:26914804

  7. Estimation of Heterogeneity in Diagnostic Parameters of Age-related Diseases.

    PubMed

    Blokh, David; Stambler, Ilia

    2014-08-01

    The heterogeneity of parameters is a ubiquitous biological phenomenon, with critical implications for biological systems functioning in normal and diseased states. We developed a method to estimate the level of objects set heterogeneity with reference to particular parameters and applied it to type II diabetes and heart disease, as examples of age-related systemic dysfunctions. The Friedman test was used to establish the existence of heterogeneity. The Newman-Keuls multiple comparison method was used to determine clusters. The normalized Shannon entropy was used to provide the quantitative evaluation of heterogeneity. There was obtained an estimate for the heterogeneity of the diagnostic parameters in healthy subjects, as well as in heart disease and type II diabetes patients, which was strongly related to their age. With aging, as with the diseases, the level of heterogeneity (entropy) was reduced, indicating a formal analogy between these phenomena. The similarity of the patterns in aging and disease suggested a kind of "early aging" of the diseased subjects, or alternatively a "disease-like" aging process, with reference to these particular parameters. The proposed method and its validation on the chronic age-related disease samples may support a way toward a formal mathematical relation between aging and chronic diseases and a formal definition of aging and disease, as determined by particular heterogeneity (entropy) changes. PMID:25110613

  8. Preliminary age, growth and maturity estimates of spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) in British Columbia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    King, J. R.; McPhie, R. P.

    2015-05-01

    The spotted ratfish (Hydrolagus colliei) is a chimaeroid ranging from southeast Alaska to Baja California and found at depths of up to 1029 m. Despite being widespread and ubiquitous, few biological parameter estimates exist for spotted ratfish due to a lack of suitable ageing structures to estimate age and growth. We present preliminary results of age, growth and maturity estimates based on a new method in which tritor ridges are counted on the vomerine tooth plate. We also provide a method for estimating the number of worn tritor ridges based on tooth plate diameter measurements for the spotted ratfish. The tritor ridges are distinct bumps that are easy to identify and precision estimates between readers suggests that this method is transferable. Tritor ridges are a potential structure for estimating age in H. colliei and we provide recommendations for future research to improve the method. We sampled 269 spotted ratfish captured in trawl surveys off the coast British Columbia ranging in size from 74 to 495 mm in precaudal length (PCL). The estimated ages ranged from 2 to 16 years for males and from 2 to 21 years for females. The von Bertalanffy, von Bertalanffy with known size at birth, Gompertz and logistic growth models were fitted to the data. Based on Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size and number of parameters estimated, the logistic growth curve was selected as most suitable. The logistic growth model yielded the following parameter estimates: Linf=407.22 mm (PCL), k=0.23 year-1, t0=-7.06 years for males; L∞=494.52 mm (PCL), k=0.26 year-1, t0=-8.35 years for females. Estimated ages at 50% maturity were 12 and 14 years for males and females, respectively. Correspondingly, the size at 50% maturity estimates was smaller for males (302 mm, PCL) than females (393 mm, PCL). Both estimates are larger than those made for spotted ratfish off of California indicating regional differences in life history traits for this species. Our preliminary

  9. Age estimation in Indians from pulp/tooth area ratio of mandibular canines.

    PubMed

    Babshet, Medha; Acharya, Ashith B; Naikmasur, Venkatesh G

    2010-04-15

    In India, age estimation of living individuals is gaining importance, particularly in cases of child labour, ascertaining majority status and to assess disputed age in criminals. Previous studies on adult age prediction in Indians have focused on histological parameters, which are invasive in nature and not feasible in the living. Methods for age estimation in living adults make use of radiographs to indirectly measure the rate of secondary dentine deposition and studies have focused on ratios of linear measurements rather than absolute dimensions per se. Recently, the ratio of the pulp/tooth area of canines was suggested by a group in Italy who developed regression formulas for age estimation. The present study has assessed the usefulness of one of the formulas on an Indian sample and also examined the use of an India-specific equation in age prediction. Intraoral periapical digital radiographs of mandibular canines were obtained from 143 individuals (aged 20-70 years) using the paralleling technique; pulp and tooth areas were measured using a commercially available computer software programme and the pulp/tooth area ratio was computed. Age was calculated using the Italian formula which revealed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 11.01 years in Indians, an error recognisably greater than the 4.38 years reported in the Italian sample. The divergence may be explained on account of population differences that exist between Italians and Indians as well as variation in the pattern of secondary dentine deposition in Indians. The Indian formula derived (age=64.413-(195.265 x PTR), where PTR is the pulp/tooth area ratio) was applied on a control group of 35 radiographs. The Italian formula was also applied on the control sample to ascertain if the Indian formula markedly improved age prediction. No apparent difference was observed between the two (MAE was 10.76 and 11.58 years, respectively, using the Indian and Italian formula) however, the Indian formula had a tendency to

  10. Radiological pitfalls of age estimation in adopted children: a case report.

    PubMed

    Gibelli, D; De Angelis, D; Cattaneo, C

    2015-04-01

    Age estimation has a relevant importance in assessing adopted children, also in cases where the age of the minor seems unquestioned, since pathological conditions may radically alter bodily growth. This may lead to an incorrect age evaluation, with consequent social and psychological problems linked to an inadequate collocation in public school. This study aims at exposing a case report concerning age estimation for a newly adopted child from Cambodia; previous clinical documentation reported information suggesting possible malnutrition, which was verified by the observation of a general disalignment of bone and dental structures. This example shows the importance of a thorough forensic evaluation of adopted children from other countries in order to verify the possible environmental modification of physiological growth even where it seems not to be needed, and represents a caveat for clinical and social personnel dealing with adoption procedures. PMID:25786535

  11. Using a Near-Infrared Spectrometer to Estimate the Age of Anopheles Mosquitoes Exposed to Pyrethroids

    PubMed Central

    Sikulu, Maggy T.; Majambere, Silas; Khatib, Bakar O.; Ali, Abdullah S.; Hugo, Leon E.; Dowell, Floyd E.

    2014-01-01

    We report on the accuracy of using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) to predict the age of Anopheles mosquitoes reared from wild larvae and a mixed age-wild adult population collected from pit traps after exposure to pyrethroids. The mosquitoes reared from wild larvae were estimated as <7 or ≥7 d old with an overall accuracy of 79%. The age categories of Anopheles mosquitoes that were not exposed to the insecticide papers were predicted with 78% accuracy whereas the age categories of resistant, susceptible and mosquitoes exposed to control papers were predicted with 82%, 78% and 79% accuracy, respectively. The ages of 85% of the wild-collected mixed-age Anopheles were predicted by NIRS as ≤8 d for both susceptible and resistant groups. The age structure of wild-collected mosquitoes was not significantly different for the pyrethroid-susceptible and pyrethroid-resistant mosquitoes (P = 0.210). Based on these findings, NIRS chronological age estimation technique for Anopheles mosquitoes may be independent of insecticide exposure and the environmental conditions to which the mosquitoes are exposed. PMID:24594705

  12. Age estimation based on pelvic ossification using regression models from conventional radiography.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kui; Dong, Xiao-Ai; Fan, Fei; Deng, Zhen-Hua

    2016-07-01

    To establish regression models for age estimation from the combination of the ossification of iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. One thousand three hundred and seventy-nine conventional pelvic radiographs at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University between January 2010 and June 2012 were evaluated retrospectively. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed to measure the value of estimation of 18 years of age with the classification scheme for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity. Regression analysis was performed, and formulas for calculating approximate chronological age according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity were developed. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were above 0.9 (p < 0.001), indicating a good prediction of the grading systems, and the cubic regression model was found to have the highest R-square value (R (2) = 0.744 for female and R (2) = 0.753 for male). The present classification scheme for apophyseal iliac crest ossification and the ischial tuberosity may be used for age estimation. And the present established cubic regression model according to the combination developmental status of the ossification for the iliac crest and ischial tuberosity can be used for age estimation. PMID:27169673

  13. The study on telomere length for age estimation in a Thai population.

    PubMed

    Srettabunjong, Supawon; Satitsri, Saravut; Thongnoppakhun, Wanna; Tirawanchai, Nednapis

    2014-06-01

    Age is one of the key parameters in establishing a physical characteristic profile of an individual. For biological evidence left in crime scenes such as blood, saliva, hair, etc, the evidence owner's age can be determined only by DNA extracted from these materials. Previous researches have found that there are certain DNA regions with specialized characteristic and function called telomere being able to predict age. The present study was to determine the correlation between telomere length and age as well as the effect of sex on the correlation and to create linear regression equation for age estimation in Thai population for forensic purposes. Blood samples obtained from unrelated healthy Thai fresh cadavers without anatomical organ abnormalities were used in this study. All cadaver subjects underwent the postmortem examination in jurisdiction of the Department of Forensic Medicine, Faculty of Medicine Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, and Institute of Forensic Medicine, Police General Hospital. Fifty blood samples from both sexes of all ages divided into 6 groups for equal age distribution (0-11, 12-23, 24-35, 36-47, 48-59, and 60 years old and older) were collected for a total of 100 samples. The extracted genomic DNA samples were then subjected to telomere length estimation by terminal restriction fragment (TRF) assay. The results showed that the mean TRF length was inversely correlated with age (r = -0.625), and sex did not have a statistically significant influence on the association between age and mean TRF length (P > 0.05). The obtained linear regression equation was y = 113.538 ± 9.604 - 0.012 × (R = 0.391; P < 0.001). However, the correlation was too low to be used for age estimation with high certainty and a possible reason for this in part would be the postmortem DNA degradation at some level, even using fresh cadaver blood, and other biological factors such as ethnicity and DNA sources. Roughly, those individuals who had a mean TRF length

  14. Age-at-maturity estimates for Atlantic coast female striped bass

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berlinsky, David L.; Fabrizio, Mary C.; O'Brien, John F.; Specker, Jennifer L.

    1995-01-01

    This study was undertaken to estimate the percentage of mature female striped bass Morone saxatilis present in each age-class during annual coastal feeding migration. Migratory striped bass (N = 302) were sampled in coastal Rhode Island waters during spring (May-June) and fall (September-November) from 1985 to 1987. Stocks were identified by analysis of morphometric characters and isoelectric focusing of eye-lens proteins. Histological sections of ovarian tissue were used to categorize maturity state. Fish were considered mature if a class of oocytes measuring at least 150 μm and containing cytoplasmic inclusions was found in the ovarian sections. All females whose age at next potential spawning was 7 and older were mature. Our empirical observations indicated that 12% of fish in age-class 4, 34% of fish in age-class 5, and 77% of fish in age-class 6 were mature. The estimate of the proportion of mature fish in age-class 5 differs significantly from that of Merriman (1941), who also examined coastal migrants. No significant differences were found in maturity estimates of fish from stocks of different origin.

  15. Cost-Sensitive Local Binary Feature Learning for Facial Age Estimation.

    PubMed

    Lu, Jiwen; Liong, Venice Erin; Zhou, Jie

    2015-12-01

    In this paper, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary feature learning (CS-LBFL) method for facial age estimation. Unlike the conventional facial age estimation methods that employ hand-crafted descriptors or holistically learned descriptors for feature representation, our CS-LBFL method learns discriminative local features directly from raw pixels for face representation. Motivated by the fact that facial age estimation is a cost-sensitive computer vision problem and local binary features are more robust to illumination and expression variations than holistic features, we learn a series of hashing functions to project raw pixel values extracted from face patches into low-dimensional binary codes, where binary codes with similar chronological ages are projected as close as possible, and those with dissimilar chronological ages are projected as far as possible. Then, we pool and encode these local binary codes within each face image as a real-valued histogram feature for face representation. Moreover, we propose a cost-sensitive local binary multi-feature learning method to jointly learn multiple sets of hashing functions using face patches extracted from different scales to exploit complementary information. Our methods achieve competitive performance on four widely used face aging data sets. PMID:26415174

  16. Demirjian's method in the estimation of age: A study on human third molars

    PubMed Central

    Lewis, Amitha J.; Boaz, Karen; Nagesh, K. R; Srikant, N; Gupta, Neha; Nandita, K. P; Manaktala, Nidhi

    2015-01-01

    Aim: The primary aim of the following study is to estimate the chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A to H) method of Demirjian et al. (along with two modifications-Orhan) and secondary aim is to compare third molar development with sex and age. Materials and Methods: The sample consisted of 115 orthopantomograms from South Indian subjects with known chronological age and gender. Multiple regression analysis was performed with chronological age as the dependable variable and third molar root development as independent variable. All the statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS 11.0 package (IBM ® Corporation). Results: Statistically no significant differences were found in third molar development between males and females. Depending on the available number of wisdom teeth in an individual, R2 varied for males from 0.21 to 0.48 and for females from 0.16 to 0.38. New equations were derived for estimating the chronological age. Conclusion: The chronological age of a South Indian individual between 14 and 22 years may be estimated based on the regression formulae. However, additional studies with a larger study population must be conducted to meet the need for population-based information on third molar development. PMID:26005306

  17. Problems in estimating age-specific survival rates from recovery data of birds ringed as young

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderson, D.R.; Burnham, Kenneth P.; White, Gary C.

    1985-01-01

    (1) The life table model is frequently employed in the analysis of ringer samples of young in bird populations. The basic model is biologically unrealistic and of little use in making inferences concerning age-specific survival probabilities. (2) This model rests on a number of restrictive assumptions, the failure of which causes serious biases. Several important assumptions are not met with real data and the estimators of age-specific survival are not robust enough to these failures. (3) Five major problems in the use of the life table method are reviewed. Examples are provided to illustrate several of the problems involved in using this method in making inferences about survival rates and its age-specific nature. (4) We conclude that this is an invalid procedure and it should not be used. Furthermore, ringing studies involving only young birds are pointless as regards survival estimation because no valid method exists for estimating age-specific or time-specific survival rates from such data. (5) In our view, inferences about age-specific survival rates are possible only if both young and adult (or young, subadult and adult) age classes are ringed each year for k years (k ≥ 2).

  18. Improving estimates of surface water radiocarbon reservoir ages in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Greenop, Rosanna; Burke, Andrea; Rae, James; Austin, William; Reimer, Paula; Blaauw, Maarten; Crocker, Anya; Chalk, Thomas; Barker, Stephen; Knutz, Paul; Hall, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Radiocarbon measurements from foraminifera in marine sediment cores are widely used to constrain age models and the timing of paleoceanographic events, as well as past changes in ocean circulation and carbon cycling. However, the use of radiocarbon for both dating and palaeoceanographic applications is limited in sediment cores by a lack of knowledge about the surface ocean radiocarbon reservoir age and how it varies in both space and time. Typically, to convert a planktic radiocarbon age into a calendar age, an assumed constant reservoir age is applied. However, there is mounting evidence to suggest that this assumption of constant reservoir age through time is an oversimplification, particularly for the high latitude oceans during the cold climates of the last glacial and deglacial periods. Here we present new high-resolution radiocarbon records together with tephra tie points and 230-thorium (230Th) constrained sedimentation rates to improve estimates of radiocarbon reservoir age in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean. In addition we will explore the impact of the new reservoir ages for both the age models of the cores studied, as well as the palaeoceanographic implications of these reservoir age changes during intervals of rapid climate change over the past 40,000 years.

  19. Simplified Assay for Epigenetic Age Estimation in Whole Blood of Adults

    PubMed Central

    Vidal-Bralo, Laura; Lopez-Golan, Yolanda; Gonzalez, Antonio

    2016-01-01

    Biological age is not always concordant with chronological age and the departures are of interest for understanding how diseases and environmental insults affect tissue function, organismal health, and life expectancy. The best-known biological age biomarker is telomere length, but there are more accurate biomarkers as the recently developed based in epigenetic, transcriptomic, or biochemical changes. The most accurate are the epigenetic biomarkers based on specific changes in DNA methylation referred as DNA methylation age measures (DmAM). Here, we have developed and validated a new DmAM that addresses some limitations of the previously available. The new DmAM includes the study in whole blood (WB) of 8 CpG sites selected as the most informative on a training set of 390 healthy subjects. The 8 CpG DmAM showed better accuracy than other DmAM based in few CpG in an independent validation set of 335 subjects. Results were not significantly influenced by sex, smoking, or variation in blood cell subpopulations. In addition, the new 8 CpG DmAM was amenable to study in a single multiplex reaction done with methylation-sensitive single-nucleotide primer extension (MS-SNuPE), a methodology based on commercially available reagents and run in capillary electrophoresis sequencers. In this way, the high cost of DNA methylation microarrays or of a pyrosequencer, which are needed for alternative DmAM, was avoided. Performance of the DmAM with MS-SNuPE was assessed in a set of 557 donors, showing high call rate (>97%), low CV (<3.3%) and high accuracy (Mean Absolute Deviation = 6.07 years). Therefore, the 8 CpG DmAM is a feasible and accurate tool for assessing the epigenetic component of biological age in blood of adults. PMID:27471517

  20. Preterm or Not – An Evaluation of Estimates of Gestational Age in a Cohort of Women from Rural Papua New Guinea

    PubMed Central

    Ome-Kaius, Maria; Mola, Glen; White, Lisa; Wangnapi, Regina A.; Rogerson, Stephen J.; Mueller, Ivo

    2015-01-01

    Background Knowledge of accurate gestational age is required for comprehensive pregnancy care and is an essential component of research evaluating causes of preterm birth. In industrialised countries gestational age is determined with the help of fetal biometry in early pregnancy. Lack of ultrasound and late presentation to antenatal clinic limits this practice in low-resource settings. Instead, clinical estimators of gestational age are used, but their accuracy remains a matter of debate. Methods In a cohort of 688 singleton pregnancies from rural Papua New Guinea, delivery gestational age was calculated from Ballard score, last menstrual period, symphysis-pubis fundal height at first visit and quickening as well as mid- and late pregnancy fetal biometry. Published models using sequential fundal height measurements and corrected last menstrual period to estimate gestational age were also tested. Novel linear models that combined clinical measurements for gestational age estimation were developed. Predictions were compared with the reference early pregnancy ultrasound (<25 gestational weeks) using correlation, regression and Bland-Altman analyses and ranked for their capability to predict preterm birth using the harmonic mean of recall and precision (F-measure). Results Average bias between reference ultrasound and clinical methods ranged from 0–11 days (95% confidence levels: 14–42 days). Preterm birth was best predicted by mid-pregnancy ultrasound (F-measure: 0.72), and neuromuscular Ballard score provided the least reliable preterm birth prediction (F-measure: 0.17). The best clinical methods to predict gestational age and preterm birth were last menstrual period and fundal height (F-measures 0.35). A linear model combining both measures improved prediction of preterm birth (F-measure: 0.58). Conclusions Estimation of gestational age without ultrasound is prone to significant error. In the absence of ultrasound facilities, last menstrual period and fundal

  1. Age estimation in children by measurement of open apices in teeth with Bayesian calibration approach.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, R; Pacifici, A; Pacifici, L; Polimeni, A; Federici, F; Cingolani, M; Ferrante, L

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation from teeth by radiological analysis, in both children and adolescents, has wide applications in several scientific and forensic fields. In 2006, Cameriere et al. proposed a regression method to estimate chronological age in children, according to measurements of open apices of permanent teeth. Although several regression models are used to analyze the relationship between age and dental development, one serious limitation is the unavoidable bias in age estimation when regression models are used. The aim of this paper is to develop a full Bayesian calibration method for age estimation in children according to the sum of open apices, S, of the seven left permanent mandibular teeth. This cross-sectional study included 2630 orthopantomographs (OPGs) from healthy living Italian subjects, aged between 4 and 17 years and with no obvious developmental abnormalities. All radiographs were in digital format and were processed by the ImageJ computer-aided drawing program. The distance between the inner side of the open apex was measured for each tooth. Dental maturity was then evaluated according to the sum of normalized open apices (S). Intra- and inter-observer agreement was satisfactory, according to an intra-class correlation coefficient of S on 50 randomly selected OPGs. Mean absolute errors were 0.72 years (standard deviation 0.60) and 0.73 years (standard deviation 0.61) in boys and girls, respectively. The mean interquartile range (MIQR) of the calibrating distribution was 1.37 years (standard deviation 0.46) and 1.51 years (standard deviation 0.52) in boys and girls, respectively. Estimate bias was βERR=-0.005 and 0.003 for boys and girls, corresponding to a bias of a few days for all individuals in the sample. Neither of the βERR values was significantly different from 0 (p>0.682). In conclusion, the Bayesian calibration method overcomes problems of bias in age estimation when regression models are used, and appears to be suitable for assessing both

  2. Unbiased Stereological Analysis of Reactive Astrogliosis to Estimate Age-Associated Cerebral White Matter Injury.

    PubMed

    McNeal, David W; Brandner, Dieter D; Gong, Xi; Postupna, Nadia O; Montine, Thomas J; Keene, C Dirk; Back, Stephen A

    2016-06-01

    Cerebral white matter injury (WMI) contributes to cognitive dysfunction associated with pathological aging. Because reactive astrocyte-related factors contribute to remyelination failure after WMI, we sought accurate, cost-effective, and reproducible histopathological approaches for quantification of morphometric features of reactive astrogliosis in aged human white matter in patients with vascular brain injury (VBI). We compared 7 distinct approaches to quantify the features of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP)-labeled astrocytes in the prefrontal white matter of brains from patients with VBI (n = 17, mean age 88.8 years) and controls that did not exhibit VBI (n = 11, mean age 86.6 years). Only modern stereological techniques (ie, optical fractionator and spaceballs) and virtual process thickness measurements demonstrated significant changes in astrocyte number, process length, or proximal process thickness in cases with VBI relative to controls. The widely employed methods of neuropathological scoring, antibody capture assay (histelide), area fraction fractionator, and Cavalieri point counting failed to detect significant differences in GFAP expression between the groups. Unbiased stereological approaches and virtual thickness measurements provided the only sensitive and accurate means to quantify astrocyte reactivity as a surrogate marker of WMI in human brains with VBI. PMID:27142644

  3. Estimating Black Carbon Aging Time-Scales with a Particle-Resolved Aerosol Model

    SciTech Connect

    Riemer, Nicole; West, Matt; Zaveri, Rahul A.; Easter, Richard C.

    2010-01-13

    Understanding the aging process of aerosol particles is important for assessing their chemical reactivity, cloud condensation nuclei activity, radiative properties and health impacts. In this study we investigate the aging of black carbon containing particles in an idealized urban plume using a new approach, the particleresolved aerosol model PartMC-MOSAIC. We present a method to estimate aging time-scales using an aging criterion based on cloud condensation nuclei activation. The results show a separation into a daytime regime where condensation dominates and a nighttime regime where coagulation dominates. For the chosen urban plume scenario, depending on the supersaturation threshold, the values for the aging timescales vary between 0.06 hours and 10 hours during the day, and between 6 hours and 20 hours during the night.

  4. Variation in osteon histomorphometrics and their impact on age-at-death estimation in older individuals.

    PubMed

    Goliath, Jesse R; Stewart, Marissa C; Stout, Sam D

    2016-05-01

    Histomorphometric studies have reported relations between osteon size and age; however, data focused on the shape of osteons is sparse. The purpose of this study was to determine how osteon circularity (On.Cr) varies with age in different skeletal elements. Regression analysis was used to evaluate the relationship between age and osteon shape and size. We hypothesized that age would be negatively related to osteon size (area, On.Ar) and positively related to osteon shape (On.Cr). On.Cr and On.Ar were determined for the ribs and femora of 27 cadaveric specimens with known age-at-death. As predicted, age was significantly related to osteon size and shape for both the femur and rib. With age, there was a decrease in size and an increase in circularity. No relationship between sex and On.Cr was detected. An age predicting model, including On.Cr, On.Ar and OPD, is proposed to improve our ability to estimate age-at-death, especially for older individuals. PMID:27021159

  5. MAGNETO-CONVECTION AND LITHIUM AGE ESTIMATES OF THE {beta} PICTORIS MOVING GROUP

    SciTech Connect

    Macdonald, J.; Mullan, D. J. E-mail: mullan@udel.ed

    2010-11-10

    Although the means of the ages of stars in young groups determined from Li depletion often agree with mean ages determined from Hertzsprung-Russell (H-R) diagram isochrones, there are often statistically significant differences in the ages of individual stars determined by the two methods. We find that inclusion of the effects of inhibition of convection due to the presence of magnetic fields leads to consistent ages for the individual stars. We illustrate how age consistency arises by applying our results to the {beta} Pictoris moving group (BPMG). We find that, although magnetic inhibition of convection leads to increased ages from the H-R diagram isochrones for all stars, Li ages are decreased for fully convective M stars and increased for stars with radiative cores. Our consistent age determination for BPMG of 40 Myr is larger than previous determinations by a factor of about two. We have also considered models in which the mixing length ratio is adjusted to give consistent ages. We find that our magneto-convection models, which give quantitative estimates of magnetic field strength, provide a viable alternative to models in which the effects of magnetic fields (and other processes) are accounted for by reducing the mixing length ratio.

  6. Evaluation of three methodologies to estimate the VO2max in people of different ages.

    PubMed

    Balderrama, C; Ibarra, G; De La Riva, J; López, S

    2010-12-01

    Aging and gender are factors that affect the variation of physical work capacity. The present paper highlights the importance of the metabolism used by ergonomics to establish the appropriate limits of loads at work. This study compares the aerobic capacity of people from 20 to 71 years old split in 5 different groups. The laboratory experiment tested 33 volunteers (19 women and 14 men). A submaximal step test was used to measure the VO(2) using a portable breath by breath metabolic system and a telemetric heart rate monitor. Three methods to estimate the VO(2max) were compared: 1) a direct measurement of VO(2), 2) estimation by heart rate, and 3) a step test method using predetermined charts. Significant difference was encountered among the estimation methods as well as among the age ranges (F(2,92)=6.43, p<0.05 y F(4,92)=7.18, p<0.05 respectively). The method of direct measurement and the method of predetermined charts were different for the estimation of the VO(2max) with a confidence level of 95%. The method of predetermined charts is better adapted for males and people younger than 30 years. The estimation through non invasive heart rate apparatus was a good appraiser of the maximal oxygen consumption considering both genders and all the age groups. PMID:20650446

  7. The estimated prevalence and incidence of late stage age related macular degeneration in the UK

    PubMed Central

    Jarrar, Zakariya; Wormald, Richard; Cook, Derek G; Fletcher, Astrid E; Rudnicka, Alicja R

    2012-01-01

    Background UK estimates of age related macular degeneration (AMD) occurrence vary. Aims To estimate prevalence, number and incidence of AMD by type in the UK population aged ≥50 years. Methods Age-specific prevalence rates of AMD obtained from a Bayesian meta-analysis of AMD prevalence were applied to UK 2007–2009 population data. Incidence was estimated from modelled age-specific prevalence. Results Overall prevalence of late AMD was 2.4% (95% credible interval (CrI) 1.7% to 3.3%), equivalent to 513 000 cases (95% CrI 363 000 to 699 000); estimated to increase to 679 000 cases by 2020. Prevalences were 4.8% aged ≥65 years, 12.2% aged ≥80 years. Geographical atrophy (GA) prevalence rates were 1.3% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.9%), 2.6% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.7%) and 6.7% (95% CrI 4.6% to 9.6%); neovascular AMD (NVAMD) 1.2% (95% CrI 0.9% to 1.7%), 2.5% (95% CrI 1.8% to 3.4%) and 6.3% (95% CrI 4.5% to 8.6%), respectively. The estimated number of prevalent cases of late AMD were 60% higher in women versus men (314 000 cases in women, 192 000 men). Annual incidence of late AMD, GA and NVAMD per 1000 women was 4.1 (95% CrI 2.4% to 6.8%), 2.4 (95% CrI 1.5% to 3.9%) and 2.3 (95% CrI 1.4% to 4.0%); in men 2.6 (95% CrI 1.5% to 4.4%), 1.7 (95% CrI 1.0% to 2.8%) and 1.4 (95% CrI 0.8% to 2.4%), respectively. 71 000 new cases of late AMD were estimated per year. Conclusions These estimates will guide health and social service provision for those with late AMD and enable estimation of the cost of introducing new treatments. PMID:22329913

  8. Ultrasonographic estimation of prostate size in normal dogs and relationship to bodyweight and age.

    PubMed

    Atalan, G; Holt, P E; Barr, F J

    1999-03-01

    A study was undertaken to establish the ranges of prostate dimensions, weight and volume in mature normal dogs and thus provide information which would allow differentiation from normality of size changes associated with disease. The study was performed on 154 healthy adult male entire dogs. Each prostate was imaged ultrasonographically and standard longitudinal and transverse sections were obtained. Prostate length (L), depth on longitudinal (DL) and transverse sections (DT) and width (W) were measured. Prostatic volume and weight were estimated according to formulae derived previously. There were statistically significant correlations between bodyweight or age and L, DL, DT and W. There were also significant correlations between estimated prostatic weight or volume and bodyweight, age, L, DL, DT and W. Formulae were derived to express the relationships between prostate size (weight or volume) and age or bodyweight. PMID:10200922

  9. The applicability of Willems' method for age estimation in southern Turkish children: A preliminary study.

    PubMed

    Onat Altan, Halenur; Altan, Ahmet; Bilgiç, Fundagül; Akıncı Sözer, Özlem; Damlar, İbrahim

    2016-02-01

    The aims of the present study were to evaluate the applicability and accuracy of Willems' method for assessing southern Turkish children and to analyze the practicability of this method in different age groups for both genders. Panoramic radiographs of 756 children (378 females, 378 males) aged between 5 and 14.99 years were examined by one observer. This retrospective study involved a contemporary southern Turkish population. The chronological ages of the subjects were divided into 10 groups. These 10 groups consisted of children of the following ages 5 and 14.99. Relationships between continuous variables were examined using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The paired t-test was used to compare all data according to gender and age groups. A p-value of less than 0.05 was considered significant for all statistical data. According to the results, a very high correlation was found for both girls (r(2) = 0.946) and for boys (r(2) = 0.940). Dental age (DA) and chronological age (CA) were consistent for girls in the four age groups (5-5.99, 6-6.99, 12-12.99, and 14-14.99) and for boys in the three age groups (5-5.99,13-13.99, 14-14.99). The maturity score of Willems' Belgian samples of the DA was applicable to seven groups of the southern Turkish children. The present study reports that Willems' method is more accurate for girls than for boys. PMID:26698388

  10. Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons.

    PubMed

    Sironi, Emanuele; Gallidabino, Matteo; Weyermann, Céline; Taroni, Franco

    2016-03-01

    Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed. PMID:25794687

  11. Twins and the paradox of dental-age estimations: a caution for researchers and clinicians.

    PubMed

    Pechníková, M; De Angelis, D; Gibelli, D; Vecchio, V; Cameriere, R; Zeqiri, B; Cattaneo, C

    2014-08-01

    The biological age difference among twins is frequently an issue in studies of genetic influence on various dental features, particularly dental development. The timing of dental development is a crucial issue also for many clinicians and researchers. The aim of this study was therefore to verify within groups of twins how dental development differs, by applying Demirjian's method, Mincer's charts of development of third molars and two of Cameriere's methods for dental age estimation, which are among the most popular methods both in the clinical and the forensic scenario. The sample consisted of 64 twin pairs: 21 monozygotic, 30 dizygotic same-sex and 13 dizygotic opposite-sex with an age range between 5.8 and 22.6 years. Dental age was determined from radiographs using the mentioned methods. Results showed that dental age of monozygotic twins is not identical even if they share all their genes. The mean intra-pair difference of monozygotic pairs was low and similar to the difference in dizygotic same-sex twins; the maximum difference between monozygotic twins, however, was surprisingly large (nearly two years). This should lead to some circumspection in the interpretation of systematic estimations of dental age both in the clinical and forensic scenario. PMID:24951409

  12. Age estimation from stages of epiphyseal union in the presacral vertebrae.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V; Ríos, Luis

    2011-02-01

    The presacral vertebrae have various secondary centers of ossification, whose timing of fusion can be used for age estimation of human skeletal remains up to the middle to the latter third decade. However, detailed information about the age at which these secondary centers of ossification fuse has been lacking. In this study, the timing of epiphyseal union in presacral vertebrae was studied in a sample of modern Portuguese skeletons (57 females and 47 males) between the ages of 9 and 30, taken from the Lisbon documented skeletal collection. A detailed photographic record of these epiphyses and the age ranges for the different stages of epiphyseal union are provided. Partial union of epiphyses was observed from 11 to 27 years of age. In general, centers of ossification begin to fuse first in the cervical and lumbar vertebrae, followed by centers of ossification in the thoracic region. The first center of ossification to complete fusion is usually that of the mammillary process in lumbar vertebrae. This is usually followed by that of the transverse process, spinous transverse process, and annular ring, regardless of vertebra type. There were no statistically significant sex differences in timing of fusion, but there was a trend toward early maturation in females for some vertebra or epiphyses. Bilateral epiphyses did not show statistically significant differences in timing of fusion. This study offers information on timing of fusion of diverse epiphyseal locations useful for age estimation of complete or fragmented human skeletal remains. PMID:20872802

  13. Application of modified reverse panoramic radiograph on lambdoid suture for age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Dwivedy, Shweta; Sah, Kunal; Sinha, Shruti

    2015-01-01

    Background Cranial suture closure has long been recognized as a character of human development related to aging. For this reason, it has been utilized for various forensic and archaeological studies to determine the age of an unidentified/or skeletonized individuals. Various cadaveric studies have established the role of lambdoid suture in age estimation, but not routinely practiced. The objective is to establish if any correlation exists between individual’s age and lambdoid sutures closure status (ectocranially) in mortals through modified reverse panoramic radiograph (RPRg). Methods Total number of 85 subjects, 25 years and beyond were included in the study, and divided into four groups with an age interval of 10 years. Assessment of lambdoid suture closure was done according to Frederic Rating Scale on modified RPRg. Data obtained was subjected to statistical analysis using Spearman’s correlation test. Results A significant difference was observed between the age group and suture closure. Correlation coefficient of 0.570 was obtained, and was interpreted as a good correlation between the age and suture closure status with a P value of <0.001. Conclusions Lambdoid suture can be very effective and practical tool for age assessment in mortals through modified RPRg (ectocranially). PMID:26435915

  14. Hierarchical Bayesian analysis to incorporate age uncertainty in growth curve analysis and estimates of age from length: Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schwarz, L.K.; Runge, M.C.

    2009-01-01

    Age estimation of individuals is often an integral part of species management research, and a number of ageestimation techniques are commonly employed. Often, the error in these techniques is not quantified or accounted for in other analyses, particularly in growth curve models used to describe physiological responses to environment and human impacts. Also, noninvasive, quick, and inexpensive methods to estimate age are needed. This research aims to provide two Bayesian methods to (i) incorporate age uncertainty into an age-length Schnute growth model and (ii) produce a method from the growth model to estimate age from length. The methods are then employed for Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus) carcasses. After quantifying the uncertainty in the aging technique (counts of ear bone growth layers), we fit age-length data to the Schnute growth model separately by sex and season. Independent prior information about population age structure and the results of the Schnute model are then combined to estimate age from length. Results describing the age-length relationship agree with our understanding of manatee biology. The new methods allow us to estimate age, with quantified uncertainty, for 98% of collected carcasses: 36% from ear bones, 62% from length.

  15. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems - Revison 1.

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O. K.; Energy Technology

    1994-10-05

    This report presents a revision of the procedure and correlations presented earlier in NUREG/CR-4513, ANL-90/42 (June 1991) for predicting the change in mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water reactors at 280-330 C (535-625 F). The correlations presented in this report are based on an expanded data base and have been optimized with mechanical-property data on cast stainless steels aged up to {approx}58,000 h at 290-350 C (554-633 F). The correlations for estimating the change in tensile stress, including the Ramberg/Osgood parameters for strain hardening, are also described. The fracture toughness J-R curve, tensile stress, and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known material information. Mechanical properties of a specific cast stainless steel are estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. Embrittlement of cast stainless steels is characterized in terms of room-temperature Charpy-impact energy. The extent or degree of thermal embrittlement at 'saturation,' i.e., the minimum impact energy that can be achieved for a material after long-term aging, is determined from the chemical composition of the steel. Charpy-impact energy as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which are also determined from the chemical composition. The initial impact energy of the unaged steel is required for these estimations. Initial tensile flow stress is needed for estimating the flow stress of the aged material. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained by correlating room-temperature Charpy-impact energy with fracture toughness parameters. The values of JIC are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. A common 'predicted lower-bound' J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, range of

  16. An Age Estimate for the beta Pictoris Analog HR 4796A

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stauffer, John R.; Hartmann, Lee W.; Barrado y Navascues, David

    1995-12-01

    We have obtained a high-resolution, moderate signal-to-noise spectrum for the M dwarf companion to HR 4796A, an AO star with a β Pictoris-type IR excess. The spectrum of the M star shows an extraordinarily strong lithium 6708 Å absorption line with an equivalent width of 550 mÅ. Age estimates derived from the lithium strength and from pre-main-sequence isochrone fitting indicate an age of about 8 ± 2 Myr for HR 4796B. Assuming this age is also applicable to HR 4796A, we conclude that HR 4796A is a relatively normal A star seen at an unusual time (i.e., when it is very young) rather than an A star of "average" age which has somehow managed to retain or acquire a dense, circumstellar disk, in rough agreement with conclusions reached previously by Jura et al.

  17. Reliability and validity of eight dental age estimation methods for adults.

    PubMed

    Soomer, Helena; Ranta, Helena; Lincoln, Michael J; Penttilä, Antti; Leibur, Edvitar

    2003-01-01

    This paper evaluates the reliability and validity of eight published dental age estimation methods for adults that may aid in victim identification. Age was calculated on 20 Caucasian teeth of known age according to the methods of Kvaal (for in situ and extracted teeth), Solheim (for in situ and sectioned teeth), Lamendin (for extracted teeth), Johanson (for sectioned teeth) and Bang (for extracted and sectioned teeth) by one independent observer. For each method, mean age error and standard error were assessed as the measures of accuracy and precision. In addition, method simplicity, requirements for tooth preparation and the equipment necessary were assessed and recommendations given for forensic use in various situations. Methods for sectioned teeth gave more reliable results when compared to methods for intact teeth. PMID:12570217

  18. Age estimates of globular clusters in the Milky Way: constraints on cosmology.

    PubMed

    Krauss, Lawrence M; Chaboyer, Brian

    2003-01-01

    Recent observations of stellar globular clusters in the Milky Way Galaxy, combined with revised ranges of parameters in stellar evolution codes and new estimates of the earliest epoch of globular cluster formation, result in a 95% confidence level lower limit on the age of the Universe of 11.2 billion years. This age is inconsistent with the expansion age for a flat Universe for the currently allowed range of the Hubble constant, unless the cosmic equation of state is dominated by a component that violates the strong energy condition. This means that the three fundamental observables in cosmology-the age of the Universe, the distance-redshift relation, and the geometry of the Universe-now independently support the case for a dark energy-dominated Universe. PMID:12511641

  19. Age of acquisition estimates for 1,208 ambiguous and polysemous words.

    PubMed

    Khanna, Maya M; Cortese, Michael J

    2011-03-01

    Age of acquisition (AoA) estimates are provided for 3,460 senses of 1,208 words (i.e., words with multiple meanings e.g., duck). The AoA rating estimates appear to be relatively consistent across participants. The Spearman-Brown split-half reliability coefficient is .95, while the correlations between each participant's ratings and the overall mean ratings yielded correlation coefficients between .325 to .794 with a mean of .69 (SD = .10). These estimates will be of use to those interested in: (a) the influence of AoA on word processing, (b) the influence of AoA on meaning access, (c) the structure of semantic memory, and (d) developmental trends in lexical ambiguity resolution. These AoA estimates can be downloaded from the Psychonomic Society's Web archive of norms, stimuli, and data at www.psychonomic.org/archive. PMID:21287120

  20. Estimation of submarine mass failure probability from a sequence of deposits with age dates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geist, Eric L.; Chaytor, Jason D.; Parsons, Thomas E.; ten Brink, Uri S.

    2013-01-01

    The empirical probability of submarine mass failure is quantified from a sequence of dated mass-transport deposits. Several different techniques are described to estimate the parameters for a suite of candidate probability models. The techniques, previously developed for analyzing paleoseismic data, include maximum likelihood and Type II (Bayesian) maximum likelihood methods derived from renewal process theory and Monte Carlo methods. The estimated mean return time from these methods, unlike estimates from a simple arithmetic mean of the center age dates and standard likelihood methods, includes the effects of age-dating uncertainty and of open time intervals before the first and after the last event. The likelihood techniques are evaluated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) and Akaike’s Bayesian Information Criterion (ABIC) to select the optimal model. The techniques are applied to mass transport deposits recorded in two Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drill sites located in the Ursa Basin, northern Gulf of Mexico. Dates of the deposits were constrained by regional bio- and magnetostratigraphy from a previous study. Results of the analysis indicate that submarine mass failures in this location occur primarily according to a Poisson process in which failures are independent and return times follow an exponential distribution. However, some of the model results suggest that submarine mass failures may occur quasiperiodically at one of the sites (U1324). The suite of techniques described in this study provides quantitative probability estimates of submarine mass failure occurrence, for any number of deposits and age uncertainty distributions.

  1. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K. )

    1991-06-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting the change in fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water rectors (LWRs) at 280--330{degrees}C (535--625{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known mineral in formation. Fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel is estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. The extent of thermal embrittlement is characterized by the room-temperature normalized'' Charpy-impact energy. A correlation for the extent of embrittlement at saturation,'' i.e., the minimum impact energy that would be achieved for the material after long-term aging, is given in terms of a material parameter, {Phi}, which is determined from the chemical composition. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained from correlations between room-temperature Charpy-impact energy and fracture toughness parameters. Fracture toughness as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which is determined from chemical composition. A common lower-bound'' J-R curve for cast stainless steels with unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given material specification, ferrite content, and temperature. Examples for estimating impact strength and fracture toughness of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are describes. 24 refs., 39 figs., 2 tabs.

  2. Estimating the Burden of Leptospirosis among Febrile Subjects Aged below 20 Years in Kampong Cham Communities, Cambodia, 2007-2009

    PubMed Central

    Hem, Sopheak; Ly, Sowath; Votsi, Irene; Vogt, Florian; Asgari, Nima; Buchy, Philippe; Heng, Seiha; Picardeau, Mathieu; Sok, Touch; Ly, Sovann; Huy, Rekol; Guillard, Bertrand; Cauchemez, Simon; Tarantola, Arnaud

    2016-01-01

    Background Leptospirosis is an emerging but neglected public health challenge in the Asia/Pacific Region with an annual incidence estimated at 10–100 per 100,000 population. No accurate data, however, are available for at-risk rural Cambodian communities. Method We conducted anonymous, unlinked testing for IgM antibodies to Leptospira spp. on paired sera of Cambodian patients <20 years of age between 2007–2009 collected through active, community-based surveillance for febrile illnesses in a convenience sample of 27 rural and semi-rural villages in four districts of Kampong Cham province, Cambodia. Leptospirosis testing was done on paired serological samples negative for Dengue, Japanese encephalitis and Chikungunya viruses after random selection. Convalescent samples found positive while initial samples were negative were considered as proof of acute infection. We then applied a mathematical model to estimate the risk of fever caused by leptospirosis, dengue or other causes in rural Cambodia. Results A total of 630 samples are coming from a randomly selected subset of 2358 samples. IgM positive were found on the convalescent serum sample, among which 100 (15.8%) samples were IgM negative on an earlier sample. Seventeen of these 100 seroconversions were confirmed using a Microagglutination Test. We estimated the probability of having a fever due to leptospirosis at 1. 03% (95% Credible Interval CI: 0. 95%–1. 22%) per semester. In comparison, this probability was 2. 61% (95% CI: 2. 55%, 2. 83%) for dengue and 17. 65% (95% CI: 17. 49%, 18. 08%) for other causes. Conclusion Our data from febrile cases aged below 20 years suggest that the burden of leptospirosis is high in rural Cambodian communities. This is especially true during the rainy season, even in the absence of identified epidemics. PMID:27043016

  3. Estimating brain age using high-resolution pattern recognition: Younger brains in long-term meditation practitioners.

    PubMed

    Luders, Eileen; Cherbuin, Nicolas; Gaser, Christian

    2016-07-01

    Normal aging is known to be accompanied by loss of brain substance. The present study was designed to examine whether the practice of meditation is associated with a reduced brain age. Specific focus was directed at age fifty and beyond, as mid-life is a time when aging processes are known to become more prominent. We applied a recently developed machine learning algorithm trained to identify anatomical correlates of age in the brain translating those into one single score: the BrainAGE index (in years). Using this validated approach based on high-dimensional pattern recognition, we re-analyzed a large sample of 50 long-term meditators and 50 control subjects estimating and comparing their brain ages. We observed that, at age fifty, brains of meditators were estimated to be 7.5years younger than those of controls. In addition, we examined if the brain age estimates change with increasing age. While brain age estimates varied only little in controls, significant changes were detected in meditators: for every additional year over fifty, meditators' brains were estimated to be an additional 1month and 22days younger than their chronological age. Altogether, these findings seem to suggest that meditation is beneficial for brain preservation, effectively protecting against age-related atrophy with a consistently slower rate of brain aging throughout life. PMID:27079530

  4. Uncertainty in age-specific harvest estimates and consequences for white-tailed deer management

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Collier, B.A.; Krementz, D.G.

    2007-01-01

    age classes. Thus, we suggest that using harvest proportions for management planning and evaluation should be viewed with caution. In addition, we recommend that managers focus more attention on estimation of age-specific harvest rates, and modeling approaches which combine harvest rates with information from harvested individuals to further increase their ability to effectively manage deer populations under selective harvest programs. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  5. Threshold groundwater ages and young water fractions estimated from 3H, 3He, and 14C

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirchner, James; Jasechko, Scott

    2016-04-01

    It is widely recognized that a water sample taken from a running stream is not described by a single age, but rather by a distribution of ages. It is less widely recognized that the same principle holds true for groundwaters, as indicated by the commonly observed discordances between model ages obtained from different tracers (e.g., 3H vs 14C) in the same sample. Water age distributions are often characterized by their mean residence times (MRT's). However, MRT estimates are highly uncertain because they depend on the shape of the assumed residence time distribution (in particular on the thickness of the long-time tail), which is difficult or impossible to constrain with data. Furthermore, because MRT's are typically nonlinear functions of age tracer concentrations, they are subject to aggregation bias. That is, MRT estimates derived from a mixture of waters with different ages (and thus different tracer concentrations) will systematically underestimate the mixture's true mean age. Here, building on recent work with stable isotope tracers in surface waters [1-3], we present a new framework for using 3H, 3He and 14C to characterize groundwater age distributions. Rather than describing groundwater age distributions by their MRT, we characterize them by the fraction of the distribution that is younger or older than a threshold age. The threshold age that separates "young" from "old" water depends on the characteristics of the specific tracer, including its history of atmospheric inputs. Our approach depends only on whether a given slice of the age distribution is younger or older than the threshold age, but not on how much younger or older it is. Thus our approach is insensitive to the tails of the age distribution, and is therefore relatively unaffected by uncertainty in the distribution's shape. Here we show that concentrations of 3H, 3He, and 14C are almost linearly related to the fractions of water that are younger or older than specified threshold ages. These

  6. The biochemical estimation of age in Euphausiids: Laboratory calibration and field comparisons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harvey, H. R.; Ju, Se-J.; Son, S.-K.; Feinberg, L. R.; Shaw, C. T.; Peterson, W. T.

    2010-04-01

    Euphausiids play a key role in many marine ecosystems as a link between primary producers and top predators. Understanding their demographic (i.e. age) structure is an essential tool to assess growth and recruitment as well as to determine how changes in environmental conditions might alter their condition and distribution. Age determination of crustaceans cannot be accomplished using traditional approaches, and here we evaluate the potential for biochemical products of tissue metabolism (termed lipofuscins) to determine the demographic structure of euphausiids in field collections . Lipofuscin was extracted from krill neural tissues (eye and eye-stalk), quantified using fluorescent intensity and normalized to tissue protein content to allow comparisons across animal sizes. Multiple fluorescent components from krill were observed, with the major product having a maximum fluorescence at excitation of 355 nm and emission of 510 nm. Needed age calibration of lipofuscin accumulation in Euphausia pacifica was accomplished using known-age individuals hatched and reared in the laboratory for over one year. Lipofuscin content extracted from neural tissues of laboratory-reared animals was highly correlated with the chronological age of animals ( r=0.87). Calibrated with laboratory lipofuscin accumulation rates, field-collected sub-adult and adult E. pacifica in the Northeast Pacific were estimated to be older than 100 days and younger than 1year. Comparative data for the Antarctic krill, E. superba showed much higher lipofuscin values suggesting a much longer lifespan than the more temperate species, E. pacifica. These regional comparisons suggest that biochemical indices allow a practical approach to estimate population age structure of diverse populations, and combined with other measurements can provide estimates of vital rates (i.e. longevity, mortality, growth) for krill populations in dynamic environments.

  7. Permanent teeth development in a Spanish sample. Application to dental age estimation.

    PubMed

    Feijóo, Gonzalo; Barbería, Elena; De Nova, Joaquín; Prieto, Jose Luis

    2012-01-10

    The purpose of this study is to clarify the chronology of different stages of dental development, according to Demirjian, in a sample of Spanish children, which will enable us to build a database that will be used as a reference in regard to the dental development of individuals of our socio-geographic environment. In the same studied sample, a calculation of the dental age according to Demirjian was carried out. This study was conducted in a final sample consisting of 1010 orthopantograms, corresponding to Spanish children (485 boys and 525 girls) ages 2-16. Comparing the age of onset of the different stages among the children, evidence was found that girls had an earlier general development than boys. These differences were only statistically significant in teeth and concrete stages. The canine teeth revealed greater gender dimorphism, with significant differences in all stages compared with the upper canines. The method proposed by Demirjian for dental age calculation resulted in a significant overestimation of dental age in relation to the chronological age in boys (average of 0.87 years) and girls (average of 0.55 years). Data from this study may be used as reference for dental maturity, as well as a standard for estimating age in Spanish children. PMID:21940122

  8. Evaluation of third molar development in the estimation of chronological age.

    PubMed

    Soares, Caio Belém Rodrigues Barros; Figueiroa, José Natal; Dantas, Renata Moura Xavier; Kurita, Lúcio Mitsuo; Pontual, Andréa dos Anjos; Ramos-Perez, Flávia Maria de Moraes; Perez, Danyel Elias da Cruz; Pontual, Maria Luiza dos Anjos

    2015-09-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the correlation between chronological age and the degree of third molar mineralization by Demirjian's developmental stages (Demirjian et al., 1973) using panoramic radiography. From a total of 11.396 digital panoramic radiographs of patients from three oral radiology private clinics from the northeast region of Brazil, obtained from January to June 2009, 2097 radiographic images from patients aged between 6 and 22 years were selected. The images were analyzed individually by two obsevers using a 21-inch computer screen and Windows Picture and Fax Viewer. Reliability was achieved by intra- and interobserver evaluation, using the Kappa test. Chronological age, calcification stage, gender and third molar were interrelated using a multiple linear regression model, considering age as a response variable. There was reliability with Demirjian et al.'s developmental stage assesment, displaying a significant relationship between mineralization stages and patients' age (P<0.05). There was no significant difference between the average age and the calcification stage taking gender and localization of the third molar into consideration. It is possible to estimate chronological age based on Demirjian's stage of a third molar, regardless of gender and location. PMID:26164359

  9. Age estimation in children and young adolescents for forensic purposes using fourth cervical vertebra (C4).

    PubMed

    Cameriere, R; Giuliodori, A; Zampi, M; Galić, I; Cingolani, M; Pagliara, F; Ferrante, L

    2015-03-01

    The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of using the growth of the body of C4 vertebra for the estimation of age in children and young adolescents. We used the fact that the proportions between the radiologic projections of the posterior and anterior sides of the C4 vertebral body, which forms a trapezoidal shape, differ with age: in younger individuals, the posterior side is higher, whereas in older individuals, the projections of the sides of the vertebral body form a rectangular shape with the two sides equal or with the anterior side slightly higher. Cephalograms of 444 Italian subjects (214 female and 230 male individuals) aged between 5 and 15 years and with no obvious development abnormalities were analyzed. The projections of the anterior side (a) and of the posterior side (b) of each C4 body were measured, and their ratio (Vba), as a value of the C4 body development, was used for age estimation. Distribution of the Vba suggested that it does not change after 13 years in female and 14 years in male subjects. Consequently, we restricted our analysis of the Vba growing model until 14 years in both sexes. We used a Bayesian calibration method to estimate chronological age as function of Vba as a predicting variable. The intra- and inter-observer agreement was satisfactory, using intra-class correlation coefficient of Vba on 30 randomly selected cephalograms. The mean absolute errors were 1.34 years (standard deviation 0.95) and 1.01 years (standard deviation 0.71), and the mean inter-quartile ranges of the calibrating distribution were 2.32 years (standard deviation 0.25) in male and 1.72 years (standard deviation 0.39) in female individuals, respectively. The slopes of the regression of the estimated age error to chronological age were 0.02 in male and 0.06 in female individuals, where both values did not result significantly different from 0 (p > 0.12). In conclusion, although our Bayesian calibration method might not really

  10. Age estimation of a large bighead carp from Grand Lake, Oklahoma

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Long, James M.; Nealis, Ashley

    2011-01-01

    On April 23, 2011, a 1356-mm total length (TL), 39.8 kg bighead carp (Hypophthalmichthys nobilis) was brought to the Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation. This specimen is the largest bighead carp recorded from Oklahoma, and it is near the maximum size reported from the United States. This specimen was estimated to be nine years old based on estimates from three different structures (pectoral fin ray, branchiostegal ray, and otolith). The age, together with past Oklahoma records of the species, indicates that there has been multiple introductions or undocumented reproduction of bighead carp in the Grand Lake basin.

  11. Striking effect of time variation in the estimation of groundwater age in the Wairarapa valley

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Petrus, Karine; Toews, Michael; Daughney, Christopher; Cornaton, Fabien

    2014-05-01

    The Wairarapa Valley exhibits complex interactions between its rivers and shallow aquifers. With agriculture being an essential part of the region the risk of contamination and depletion of groundwater exists. In order to assist with water resource management in the region, we can do predictions with the help of numerical models. Among these predictions, the evaluation of groundwater age is critical for decision making. This project builds on work done by Greater Wellington Regional Council and will focus on the Wairarapa Valley. The aim of this study is to evaluate the age of the groundwater in the Wairarapa region. Investigations have already been done thanks to hydrochemistry. However radiometric age can be misleading in the sense that it does not consider the mixing process in the motion of groundwater particules. Therefore another approach can be considered .This latter is physic based by considering the age as a property that we transport through two main processes: advection at a macroscopic scale and diffusion at a microscopic scale. The determination of the distribution age by this approach has already been done for the Lake Rotorua but in the steady state case (cf Daughney). The unique contribution of the present study is to estimate the changes in groundwater age distribution through time within the region. Indeed transient simulations are needed to explicitly account for seasonally variable rainfall and pumping wells. This affects the simulated flow solution and then the simulated age solution. In order to solve numerically the transport of age distribution we have chosen to use the Time Marching Laplace Transform Galerkin technique which has been developed in a research code by Fabien Cornaton. The obtained results depict that temporal variations in groundwater age are present and have important implication for resource management

  12. Estimating Gestational Age in Late Presenters to Antenatal Care in a Resource-Limited Setting on the Thai-Myanmar Border

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Kerryn A.; Simpson, Julie A.; Thomas, Kyla H.; Rijken, Marcus J.; White, Lisa J.; Lu Moo Dwell, Saw; Paw, Moo Kho; Wiladphaingern, Jacher; Pukrittayakamee, Sasithon; Nosten, François; Fowkes, Freya J. I.; McGready, Rose

    2015-01-01

    Estimating gestational age in resource-limited settings is prone to considerable inaccuracy because crown-rump length measured by ultrasound before 14 weeks gestation, the recommended method for estimating gestational age, is often unavailable. Judgements regarding provision of appropriate obstetric and neonatal care are dependent on accurate estimation of gestational age. We determined the accuracy of the Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment, a population-specific symphysis-fundal height formula, and ultrasound biometry performed between 16 and 40 weeks gestation in estimating gestational age using pre-existing data from antenatal clinics of the Shoklo Malaria Research Unit on the Thai-Myanmar border, where malaria is endemic. Two cohorts of women who gave birth to live singletons were analysed: 1) 250 women who attended antenatal care between July 2001 and May 2006 and had both ultrasound crown-rump length (reference) and a Dubowitz Gestational Age Assessment; 2) 975 women attending antenatal care between April 2007 and October 2010 who had ultrasound crown-rump length, symphysis-fundal measurements, and an additional study ultrasound (biparietal diameter and head circumference) randomly scheduled between 16 and 40 weeks gestation. Mean difference in estimated newborn gestational age between methods and 95% limits of agreement (LOA) were determined from linear mixed-effects models. The Dubowitz method and the symphysis-fundal height formula performed well in term newborns, but overestimated gestational age of preterms by 2.57 weeks (95% LOA: 0.49, 4.65) and 3.94 weeks (95% LOA: 2.50, 5.38), respectively. Biparietal diameter overestimated gestational age by 0.83 weeks (95% LOA: -0.93, 2.58). Head circumference underestimated gestational age by 0.39 weeks (95% LOA: -2.60, 1.82), especially if measured after 24 weeks gestation. The results of this study can be used to quantify biases associated with alternative methods for estimating gestational age in the absence of

  13. Early-age concrete strength estimation based on piezoelectric sensor using artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Junkyeong; Kim, Ju-Won; Park, Seunghee

    2014-04-01

    Recently, novel methods to estimate the strength of concrete have been reported based on numerous NDT methods. Especially, electro-mechanical impedance technique using piezoelectric sensors are studied to estimate the strength of concrete. However, the previous research works could not provide the general information about the early-age strength important to manage the quality of concrete and/or the construction process. In order to estimate the early-age strength of concrete, the electro-mechanical impedance method and the artificial neural network(ANN) is utilized in this study. The electro-mechanical impedance varies with the mechanical properties of host structures. Because the strength development is most influential factor among the change of mechanical properties at early-age of curing, it is possible to estimate the strength of concrete by analyzing the change of E/M impedance. The strength of concrete is a complex function of several factors like mix proportion, temperature, elasticity, etc. Because of this, it is hard to mathematically derive equations about strength of concrete. The ANN can provide the solution about early-age strength of concrete without mathematical equations. To verify the proposed approach, a series of experimental studies are conducted. The impedance signals are measured using embedded piezoelectric sensors during curing process and the resonant frequency of impedance is extracted as a strength feature. The strength of concrete is calculated by regression of strength development curve obtained by destructive test. Then ANN model is established by trained using experimental results. Finally the ANN model is verified using impedance data of other sensors.

  14. Why Was Kelvin's Estimate of the Earth's Age Wrong?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lovatt, Ian; Syed, M. Qasim

    2014-01-01

    This is a companion to our previous paper in which we give a published example, based primarily on Perry's work, of a graph of ln "y" versus "t" when "y" is an exponential function of "t". This work led us to the idea that Lord Kelvin's (William Thomson's) estimate of the Earth's age was…

  15. New age estimates for the Palaeolithic assemblages and Pleistocene succession of Casablanca, Morocco

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rhodes, E. J.; Singarayer, J. S.; Raynal, J.-P.; Westaway, K. E.; Sbihi-Alaoui, F. Z.

    2006-10-01

    Marine and aeolian Quaternary sediments from Casablanca, Morocco were dated using the optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) signal of quartz grains. These sediments form part of an extensive succession spanning the Pleistocene, and contain a rich faunal and archaeological record, including an Acheulian lithic assemblage from before the Brunhes-Matayama boundary, and a Homo erectus jaw from younger cave deposits. Sediment samples from the sites of Reddad Ben Ali, Oulad J'mel, Sidi Abderhamane and Thomas Quarries have been dated, in order to assess the upper limits of OSL. The revision of previously measured mammalian tooth enamel electron spin resonance (ESR) dates from the Grotte des Rhinocéros, Oulad Hamida Quarry 1, incorporating updated environmental dose rate measurements and attenuation calculations, also provide chronological constraint for the archaeological material preserved at Thomas Quarries. Several OSL age estimates extend back to around 500,000 years, with a single sample providing an OSL age close to 1 Ma in magnetically reversed sediments. These luminescence dates are some of the oldest determined, and their reliability is assessed using both internal criteria based on stratigraphic consistency, and external lithostratigraphic, morphostratigraphic and independent chronological constraints. For most samples, good internal agreement is observed using single aliquot regenerative-dose OSL measurements, while multiple aliquot additive-dose measurements generally have poorer resolution and consistency. Novel slow-component and component-resolved OSL approaches applied to four samples provide significantly enhanced dating precision, and an examination of the degree of signal zeroing at deposition. A comparison of the OSL age estimates with the updated ESR dates and one U-series date demonstrate that this method has great potential for providing reliable age estimates for sediments of this antiquity. We consider the cause of some slight age inversion

  16. Accuracy of developing tooth length as an estimate of age in human skeletal remains: the deciduous dentition.

    PubMed

    Cardoso, Hugo F V

    2007-10-01

    Dental age assessments are widely used to estimate age of immature skeletal remains. Most methods have relied on fractional stages of tooth emergence and formation, particularly of the permanent dentition, for predicting the age of infants and very young children. In this study, the accuracy of regression equations of developing deciduous tooth length for age estimation (Liversidge et al.) is tested on a sample of 30 Portuguese subadult skeletons of known age at death. Overall the method shows high accuracy and the average difference between estimated and chronological age is between 0.20 and -0.14 years when using single teeth, and 0.06 years, when using all available teeth. However, there is a tendency for the deciduous molars to provide overestimates of chronological age. Results show that age estimates can be obtained within +/-0.10 years with a 95% confidence interval when several teeth are used. Overall between-tooth agreement in age estimates decreases with increasing age but there is less variability of estimates with more teeth contributing to overall mean age. One seemingly limitation of this method may be the fact that it was developed by combining the maxillary and mandibular teeth. The other is related to the accuracy with which radiographic tooth length can be used as a valid surrogate for actual tooth length. Nevertheless, the advantages of this metric method surpass the limitations of chronologies based on stages of dental development. PMID:17174050

  17. Age and growth of round gobies in Lake Michigan, with preliminary mortality estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Huo, Bin; Madenjian, Charles P.; Xie, Cong X.; Zhao, Yingming; O'Brien, Timothy P.; Czesny, Sergiusz J.

    2015-01-01

    The round goby (Neogobius melanostomus) is a prevalent invasive species throughout Lake Michigan, as well as other Laurentian Great Lakes, yet little information is available on spatial variation in round goby growth within one body of water. Age and growth of round goby at three areas of Lake Michigan were studied by otolith analysis from a sample of 659 specimens collected from 2008 to 2012. Total length (TL) ranged from 48 to 131 mm for Sturgeon Bay, from 50 to 125 mm for Waukegan, and from 54 to 129 mm for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Ages ranged from 2 to 7 years for Sturgeon Bay, from 2 to 5 years for Waukegan, and from 2 to 6 years for Sleeping Bear Dunes. Area-specific and sex-specific body–otolith relationships were used to back-calculate estimates of total length at age, which were fitted to von Bertalanffy models to estimate growth rates. For both sexes, round gobies at Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan grew significantly faster than those at Sturgeon Bay. However, round goby growth did not significantly differ between Sleeping Bear Dunes and Waukegan for either sex. At all three areas of Lake Michigan, males grew significantly faster than females. Based on catch curve analysis, estimates of annual mortality rates ranged from 0.79 to 0.84. These relatively high mortality rates suggested that round gobies may be under predatory control in Lake Michigan.

  18. The Impact of Starspots on Mass and Age Estimates for Pre-main Sequence Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Somers, Garrett; Pinsonneault, Marc H.

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the impact of starspots on the evolution of late-type stars during the pre-main sequence (pre-MS). We find that heavy spot coverage increases the radii of stars by 4-10%, consistent with inflation factors in eclipsing binary systems, and suppresses the rate of pre-MS lithium depletion, leading to a dispersion in zero-age MS Li abundance (comparable to observed spreads) if a range of spot properties exist within clusters from 3-10 Myr. This concordance with data implies that spots induce a range of radii at fixed mass during the pre-MS. These spots decrease the luminosity and T eff of stars, leading to a displacement on the HR diagram. This displacement causes isochrone derived masses and ages to be systematically under-estimated, and can lead to the spurious appearance of an age spread in a co-eval population.

  19. Foraminiferal faunal estimates of paleotemperature: Circumventing the no-analog problem yields cool ice age tropics

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Mix, A.C.; Morey, A.E.; Pisias, N.G.; Hostetler, S.W.

    1999-01-01

    The sensitivity of the tropics to climate change, particularly the amplitude of glacial-to-interglacial changes in sea surface temperature (SST), is one of the great controversies in paleoclimatology. Here we reassess faunal estimates of ice age SSTs, focusing on the problem of no-analog planktonic foraminiferal assemblages in the equatorial oceans that confounds both classical transfer function and modern analog methods. A new calibration strategy developed here, which uses past variability of species to define robust faunal assemblages, solves the no-analog problem and reveals ice age cooling of 5??to 6??C in the equatorial current systems of the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans. Classical transfer functions underestimated temperature changes in some areas of the tropical oceans because core-top assemblages misrepresented the ice age faunal assemblages. Our finding is consistent with some geochemical estimates and model predictions of greater ice age cooling in the tropics than was inferred by Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) [1981] and thus may help to resolve a long-standing controversy. Our new foraminiferal transfer function suggests that such cooling was limited to the equatorial current systems, however, and supports CLIMAP's inference of stability of the subtropical gyre centers.

  20. Refined age estimates and Paleoanthropological investigation of the Manyara Beds, Tanzania.

    PubMed

    Frost, Stephen; Schwartz, Hilde; Giemsch, Liane; Morgan, Leah; Renne, Paul; Wildgoose, Maya; Saanane, Charles; Schrenk, Friedemann; Harvati, Katerina

    2012-01-01

    The Manyara Beds in the area of Makuyuni Village in the Lake Manyara Basin, Tanzania have been studied for nearly a century, but interpretations of their age have ranged from Middle Pleistocene to Late Pliocene. New geological, paleontological and archeological fieldwork was conducted at the site and has provided siginificant new evidence, including refined stratigraphy, radiometric age estimates, preliminary paleomagnetic analysis, significant new faunal collections, as well as stratigraphic context for some of the lithic artifacts in stratigraphic context. These efforts have succesfully constrained the geological age estimates for the Manyara Beds to between less than 0.63 to 1.3 Ma, and the age of the two hominin bearing localities to between 0.63 and 0.78 Ma. This new chronology may impact the taxonomic interpretation of the hominin remains recovered from the site. They also suggest that two mammalian taxa, Metridiochoerus compactus and Eurygnathohippus, may have some of their youngest known occurences in the Manyara Beds. Acheulean lithics were also found in stratigraphic context during this more narrow time interval. Furthermore, the presence of potential cut-marks on the surface of a bovid mandible may represent the first evidence for human modification of bones from the Manyara Beds. PMID:22408125

  1. Methods for the quantitative comparison of molecular estimates of clade age and the fossil record.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Julia A; Boyd, Clint A

    2015-01-01

    Approaches quantifying the relative congruence, or incongruence, of molecular divergence estimates and the fossil record have been limited. Previously proposed methods are largely node specific, assessing incongruence at particular nodes for which both fossil data and molecular divergence estimates are available. These existing metrics, and other methods that quantify incongruence across topologies including entirely extinct clades, have so far not taken into account uncertainty surrounding both the divergence estimates and the ages of fossils. They have also treated molecular divergence estimates younger than previously assessed fossil minimum estimates of clade age as if they were the same as cases in which they were older. However, these cases are not the same. Recovered divergence dates younger than compared oldest known occurrences require prior hypotheses regarding the phylogenetic position of the compared fossil record and standard assumptions about the relative timing of morphological and molecular change to be incorrect. Older molecular dates, by contrast, are consistent with an incomplete fossil record and do not require prior assessments of the fossil record to be unreliable in some way. Here, we compare previous approaches and introduce two new descriptive metrics. Both metrics explicitly incorporate information on uncertainty by utilizing the 95% confidence intervals on estimated divergence dates and data on stratigraphic uncertainty concerning the age of the compared fossils. Metric scores are maximized when these ranges are overlapping. MDI (minimum divergence incongruence) discriminates between situations where molecular estimates are younger or older than known fossils reporting both absolute fit values and a number score for incompatible nodes. DIG range (divergence implied gap range) allows quantification of the minimum increase in implied missing fossil record induced by enforcing a given set of molecular-based estimates. These metrics are used

  2. Magnetic resonance imaging of distal tibia and calcaneus for forensic age estimation in living individuals.

    PubMed

    Ekizoglu, Oguzhan; Hocaoglu, Elif; Can, Ismail Ozgur; Inci, Ercan; Aksoy, Sema; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan

    2015-07-01

    In recent years, methods by which to decrease radiation exposure during age estimation have gained importance and become a main research area in the forensic sciences. Imaging tools such as X-ray and computed tomography (CT) are accepted as the main diagnostic methods for evaluation of the epiphysis in living individuals; however, radiation exposure and superimposition are the main disadvantages of these techniques. Magnetic resonance (MR) imaging provides an advantage in terms of preventing radiation exposure. In this study, we performed an MR analysis of the degree of fusion of the distal tibia and calcaneal epiphysis and investigated the utility of this technique in the Turkish population. Using the three-stage method described by Saint-Martin et al., we retrospectively evaluated 167 MR images (97 males, 70 females; mean age, 17.7 ± 4.8 years for males and 17.6 ± 4.9 years for females; age range of all subjects, 8-25 years). Intraobserver and interobserver evaluation showed good repeatability and consistency of this method. Stages 2 and 3 ossification of the distal tibial epiphysis first occurred at age 14 and 15 years in males and 12 and 14 years in females, respectively. Stages 2 and 3 ossification of the calcaneal epiphysis first occurred at age 14 and 16 years in males and 10 and 12 years in females, respectively. When performed alone, MR analysis of the distal tibial and calcaneal epiphysis offers limited information for forensic age estimation. However, we suggest that MR analysis can be used as a supportive method when it is necessary to avoid repeated radiation exposure. PMID:25904076

  3. Age-specific survival estimates of King Eiders derived from satellite telemetry

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Oppel, Steffen; Powell, Abby N.

    2010-01-01

    Age- and sex-specific survival and dispersal are important components in the dynamics and genetic structure of bird populations. For many avian taxa survival rates at the adult and juvenile life stages differ, but in long-lived species juveniles' survival is logistically challenging to study. We present the first estimates of hatch-year annual survival rates for a sea duck, the King Eider (Somateria spectabilis), estimated from satellite telemetry. From 2006 to 2008 we equipped pre-fiedging King Eiders with satellite transmitters on breeding grounds in Alaska and estimated annual survival rates during their first 2 years of life with known-fate models. We compared those estimates to survival rates of adults marked in the same area from 2002 to 2008. Hatch-year survival varied by season during the first year of life, and model-averaged annual survival rate was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.48–0.80). We did not record any mortality during the second year and were therefore unable to estimate second-year survival rate. Adults' survival rate was constant through the year (0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–0.97). No birds appeared to breed during their second summer. While 88% of females with an active transmitter (n = 9) returned to their natal area at the age of 2 years, none of the 2-year old males (n = 3) did. This pattern indicates that females' natal philopatry is high and suggests that males' higher rates of dispersal may account for sex-specific differences in apparent survival rates of juvenile sea ducks when estimated with mark—recapture methods.

  4. Global estimate of the incidence of clinical pneumonia among children under five years of age.

    PubMed Central

    Rudan, Igor; Tomaskovic, Lana; Boschi-Pinto, Cynthia; Campbell, Harry

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: Clinical pneumonia (defined as respiratory infections associated with clinical signs of pneumonia, principally pneumonia and bronchiolitis) in children under five years of age is still the leading cause of childhood mortality in the world. In this paper we aim to estimate the worldwide incidence of clinical pneumonia in young children. METHODS: Our estimate for the developing world is based on an analysis of published data on the incidence of clinical pneumonia from community based longitudinal studies. Among more than 2000 studies published since 1961, we identified 46 studies that reported the incidence of clinical pneumonia, and 28 of these met pre-defined quality criteria. FINDINGS: The estimate of the median incidence from those studies was 0.28 episodes per child-year (e/cy). The 25-75% interquartile range was 0.21-0.71. We assessed the plausibility of this estimate using estimates of global mortality from acute respiratory infections and reported case fatality rates for all episodes of clinical pneumonia reported in community-based studies or the case-fatality rate reported only for severe cases and estimates of the proportion of severe cases occurring in a defined population or community. CONCLUSION: The overlap between the ranges of the estimates implies that a plausible incidence estimate of clinical pneumonia for developing countries is 0.29 e/cy. This equates to an annual incidence of 150.7 million new cases, 11-20 million (7-13%) of which are severe enough to require hospital admission. In the developed world no comparable data are available. However, large population-based studies report that the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia among children less than five years old is approximately 0.026 e/cy, suggesting that more than 95% of all episodes of clinical pneumonia in young children worldwide occur in developing countries. PMID:15654403

  5. A case of an adoptive girl with precocious puberty: the problem of age estimation.

    PubMed

    De Donno, Antonio; Roca, Roberta; Introna, Francesco; Santoro, Valeria

    2013-09-10

    Age estimation is one of the main tasks of forensic anthropology and odontology, both on the dead and the living. In living subjects, age estimation may be used to establish an individual's status as a minor in cases involving adoption, criminal responsibility, child pornography, and those seeking asylum, especially where adequate identification documents are lacking. The authors report a case about age assessment of a girl born in Mbujimayi (Democratic Republic of Congo) and later adopted in Italy. The birth certificate issued after finding the child in a state of abandonment (in December 2007), bore date of 12.12.2004, but this was in contrast with the year of birth - 2003 - stated on the certification available to the center that had provided accommodation to the girl in Africa. Her adoptive parents reported that the child had been diagnosed with precocious puberty and was thus under treatment. She weighed 32.5 kg and was 132.5 cm tall. Body mass index (BMI) corresponded to the range between 9.5 and 14 years of age. The assessment of maturity indicators (sexual characteristics) placed the child at the lower limits of Stage II of Tanner's classification (sparse growth of long, slightly darkened, downy straight pubic hair; elevation of the breast and nipple as a small mound with increased diameter of the areolae). The skeletal age was determined by taking X-rays of the hand and wrist using Fels, TW2 and Greulich and Pyle methods. Dental growth was assessed through orthopantomogram using Demirjian's technique. The methods applied were adjusted considering the studies on African population found in the literature, and a skeletal and dental age of 10 years was established. Afterwards, the wrist X-rays performed at the Children's Hospital of Bari, 7 months before our investigation, revealed a skeletal age of 7 years. This evidence showed that, despite the treatment the child had promptly initiated, early puberty had influenced the skeletal growth with an acceleration

  6. A New X-ray/Infrared Age Estimator For Young Stellar Clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Getman, Konstantin; Feigelson, Eric; Kuhn, Michael; Broos, Patrick; Townsley, Leisa; Naylor, Tim; Povich, Matthew; Luhman, Kevin; Garmire, Gordon

    2013-07-01

    The MYStIX (Massive Young Star-Forming Complex Study in Infrared and X-ray; Feigelson et al. 2013) project seeks to characterize 20 OB-dominated young star forming regions (SFRs) at distances <4 kpc using photometric catalogs from the Chandra X-ray Observatory, Spitzer Space Telescope, and UKIRT and 2MASS NIR telescopes. A major impediment to understand star formation in the massive SFRs is the absence of a reliable stellar chronometer to unravel their complex star formation histories. We present estimation of stellar ages using a new method that employs NIR and X-ray photometry, t(JX). Stellar masses are directly derived from absorption-corrected X-ray luminosities using the Lx-Mass relation from the Taurus cloud. J-band magnitudes corrected for absorption and distance are compared to the mass-dependent pre-main-sequence evolutionary models of Siess et al. (2000) to estimate ages. Unlike some other age estimators, t(JX) is sensitive to all stages of evolution, from deeply embedded disky objects to widely dispersed older pre-main sequence stars. The method has been applied to >5500 out of >30000 MYStIX stars in 20 SFRs. As individual t(JX) values can be highly uncertain, we report median ages of samples within (sub)clusters defined by the companion study of Kuhn et al. (2013). Here a maximum likelihood model of the spatial distribution produces an objective assignment of each star to an isothermal ellipsoid or a distributed population. The MYStIX (sub)clusters show 0.5 < t(JX) < 5 Myr. The important science result of our study is the discovery of previously unknown age gradients across many different MYStIX regions and clusters. The t(JX) ages are often correlated with (sub)cluster extinction and location with respect to molecular cores and ionized pillars on the peripheries of HII regions. The NIR color J-H, a surrogate measure of extinction, can serve as an approximate age predictor for young embedded clusters.

  7. Estimation of gestational age and assessment of canine fetal maturation using radiology and ultrasonography: a review.

    PubMed

    Lopate, C

    2008-08-01

    Since the duration of pregnancy in the bitch is relatively short, it is critical that fetuses are fully mature prior to delivery for them to survive. For breeders to be able to prepare for normal whelpings and align medical care in case of emergency, an estimated due date is necessary. In cases where ovulation timing is lacking and there is a singleton fetus or oversize fetuses, it is necessary to ascertain gestational age prior to setting the date of Cesarean section. In high-risk pregnancies, where there is poor or no ovulation timing, determination of fetal maturation and gestational age will assist in determining if pregnancy has progressed long enough to allow delivery of viable puppies. In cases where bitches are receiving supplemental progesterone for pregnancy maintenance medications must be discontinued at an appropriate time to permit delivery of viable puppies. It also allows for estimation of the likelihood of fetal survival if the pregnancy is terminated due to failing bitch health, with subsequent surgical delivery of the fetuses. Use of breeding dates alone does not provide due dates with adequate accuracy. In cases where there has been inadequate or no breeding management or ovulation timing, estimation of due date can be performed at the time of pregnancy diagnosis, or closer to term. Radiography can be used to confirm pregnancy and facilitate determination of gestational age, beginning 45d after the LH surge. Ultrasonography can be used from 19 to 21d after the LH surge to term to confirm pregnancy and predict gestational age, and from 25 or 26d to term to assess fetal viability and fetal stress. PMID:18534674

  8. Multiple automated headspace in-tube extraction for the accurate analysis of relevant wine aroma compounds and for the estimation of their relative liquid-gas transfer rates.

    PubMed

    Zapata, Julián; Lopez, Ricardo; Herrero, Paula; Ferreira, Vicente

    2012-11-30

    An automated headspace in-tube extraction (ITEX) method combined with multiple headspace extraction (MHE) has been developed to provide simultaneously information about the accurate wine content in 20 relevant aroma compounds and about their relative transfer rates to the headspace and hence about the relative strength of their interactions with the matrix. In the method, 5 μL (for alcohols, acetates and carbonyl alcohols) or 200 μL (for ethyl esters) of wine sample were introduced in a 2 mL vial, heated at 35°C and extracted with 32 (for alcohols, acetates and carbonyl alcohols) or 16 (for ethyl esters) 0.5 mL pumping strokes in four consecutive extraction and analysis cycles. The application of the classical theory of Multiple Extractions makes it possible to obtain a highly reliable estimate of the total amount of volatile compound present in the sample and a second parameter, β, which is simply the proportion of volatile not transferred to the trap in one extraction cycle, but that seems to be a reliable indicator of the actual volatility of the compound in that particular wine. A study with 20 wines of different types and 1 synthetic sample has revealed the existence of significant differences in the relative volatility of 15 out of 20 odorants. Differences are particularly intense for acetaldehyde and other carbonyls, but are also notable for alcohols and long chain fatty acid ethyl esters. It is expected that these differences, linked likely to sulphur dioxide and some unknown specific compositional aspects of the wine matrix, can be responsible for relevant sensory changes, and may even be the cause explaining why the same aroma composition can produce different aroma perceptions in two different wines. PMID:23102525

  9. An improved model to estimate trapping parameters in polymeric materials and its application on normal and aged low-density polyethylenes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Ning; He, Miao; Alghamdi, Hisham; Chen, George; Fu, Mingli; Li, Ruihai; Hou, Shuai

    2015-08-01

    Trapping parameters can be considered as one of the important attributes to describe polymeric materials. In the present paper, a more accurate charge dynamics model has been developed, which takes account of charge dynamics in both volts-on and off stage into simulation. By fitting with measured charge data with the highest R-square value, trapping parameters together with injection barrier of both normal and aged low-density polyethylene samples were estimated using the improved model. The results show that, after long-term ageing process, the injection barriers of both electrons and holes is lowered, overall trap depth is shallower, and trap density becomes much greater. Additionally, the changes in parameters for electrons are more sensitive than those of holes after ageing.

  10. An improved model to estimate trapping parameters in polymeric materials and its application on normal and aged low-density polyethylenes

    SciTech Connect

    Liu, Ning He, Miao; Alghamdi, Hisham; Chen, George; Fu, Mingli; Li, Ruihai; Hou, Shuai

    2015-08-14

    Trapping parameters can be considered as one of the important attributes to describe polymeric materials. In the present paper, a more accurate charge dynamics model has been developed, which takes account of charge dynamics in both volts-on and off stage into simulation. By fitting with measured charge data with the highest R-square value, trapping parameters together with injection barrier of both normal and aged low-density polyethylene samples were estimated using the improved model. The results show that, after long-term ageing process, the injection barriers of both electrons and holes is lowered, overall trap depth is shallower, and trap density becomes much greater. Additionally, the changes in parameters for electrons are more sensitive than those of holes after ageing.

  11. Discriminating the effects of phylogenetic hypothesis, tree resolution and clade age estimates on phylogenetic signal measurements.

    PubMed

    Seger, G D S; Duarte, L D S; Debastiani, V J; Kindel, A; Jarenkow, J A

    2013-09-01

    Understanding how species traits evolved over time is the central question to comprehend assembly rules that govern the phylogenetic structure of communities. The measurement of phylogenetic signal (PS) in ecologically relevant traits is a first step to understand phylogenetically structured community patterns. The different methods available to estimate PS make it difficult to choose which is most appropriate. Furthermore, alternative phylogenetic tree hypotheses, node resolution and clade age estimates might influence PS measurements. In this study, we evaluated to what extent these parameters affect different methods of PS analysis, and discuss advantages and disadvantages when selecting which method to use. We measured fruit/seed traits and flowering/fruiting phenology of endozoochoric species occurring in Southern Brazilian Araucaria forests and evaluated their PS using Mantel regressions, phylogenetic eigenvector regressions (PVR) and K statistic. Mantel regressions always gave less significant results compared to PVR and K statistic in all combinations of phylogenetic trees constructed. Moreover, a better phylogenetic resolution affected PS, independently of the method used to estimate it. Morphological seed traits tended to show higher PS than diaspores traits, while PS in flowering/fruiting phenology depended mostly on the method used to estimate it. This study demonstrates that different PS estimates are obtained depending on the chosen method and the phylogenetic tree resolution. This finding has implications for inferences on phylogenetic niche conservatism or ecological processes determining phylogenetic community structure. PMID:23368095

  12. Age estimation by dental developmental stages in children and adolescents in Iceland.

    PubMed

    Vidisdottir, Sigridur Rosa; Richter, Svend

    2015-12-01

    Studies have shown that it is necessary to create a database for dental maturity for every population and compare it to others. The present study is the first one for dental development in the Icelandic population the age range being 4-24 years. It will help in forensic dental age estimation and will also help dentists, physicians, anthropologists, archaeologists and other professionals who rely on developmental age assessment in children and adolescents. In this present retrospective cross-sectional study, dental maturity was determined in 1100 Icelandic children and adolescents from orthopantomograms (OPGs). The first 100 were used for a pilot study and the remaining 1000 for the main study. A total of 23 subjects were excluded. The sample consisted of 508 girls and 469 boys from the age of 4-24 years and a dental developmental scoring system was used as a standard for determination of dental maturity stages. A total of 200 OPGs were studied both on the left and right side and the remaining on the right side. Dental maturity was established for all teeth and both genders, when the sample permitted, from the beginning of crown formation to the root apex closure. The Cronbach's Alpha reliability test showed high reliability, R=0.982. Girls in Iceland reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 17.81 years of age for the maxillary and at 18.47 years for the mandibular teeth. Boys reach dental maturity root completed (stage 10, Rc) at 18.00 years of age in the maxilla and 17.63 in the mandible. There was no significant difference between left and right side (r=0.95-1.00) and there was no gender difference, except in root formation in maxillary and mandibular canines where girls reached root completed earlier than boys. A reliable database has been established in Iceland for tooth development in the age range of 4-24 years, which is compatible with international studies. These results will help forensic odontologists and other professionals to estimate with

  13. Age estimation using annulations in root cementum of human teeth: A comparison between longitudinal and cross sections

    PubMed Central

    Mallar, Kavya B; Girish, HC; Murgod, Sanjay; Kumar, BN Yathindra

    2015-01-01

    Background: Age estimation is an important factor in the identification of an individual in forensic science. Research indicates that cemental annulations may be used more reliably than other morphological or histological traits of human skeleton for age estimation. Materials and Methods: Twenty-five teeth were sectioned longitudinally, and twenty-five teeth were cross-sectioned at the mid portion of the root. Sections were ground, mounted and viewed under a bright light microscope. The area selected for counting was photographed under ×10 objective, magnified 5 times; cemental lines were counted and added to the eruption age of that patient, to obtain the chronological age. The statistical software SAS 9.2, SPSS 15.0, Stata 10.1, MedCalc 9.0.1, Systat 12.0 and R environment ver.2.11.1 were used for the analysis of the data. Results: The P value comparing actual age and calculated age using longitudinal sections is moderately significant and the P value comparing actual age and calculated age in the age group of <30 years is significant. Interpretation and Conclusion: The middle third of tooth root was most suitable to count annulations. The cross sections are easier to count but longitudinal sections give more appropriate results on age estimation. Though the procedure predicts under assessment of age in the younger age group and over assessment of age in the older age group, it provides a close estimate of the actual age of an individual. It can be correlated with other age estimation methods for better reliability. PMID:26980973

  14. RESEARCH PAPER: Old stellar population synthesis: new age and mass estimates for Mayall II = G1

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jun; de Grijs, Richard; Fan, Zhou; Rey, Soo-Chang; Wu, Zhen-Yu; Zhou, Xu; Wu, Jiang-Hua; Jiang, Zhao-Ji; Chen, Jian-Sheng; Lee, Kyungsook; Sohn, Sangmo Tony

    2009-06-01

    Mayall II = G1 is one of the most luminous globular clusters (GCs) in M31. Here, we determine its age and mass by comparing multicolor photometry with theoretical stellar population synthesis models. Based on far- and near-ultraviolet GALEX photometry, broad-band UBVRI, and infrared JHKS 2MASS data, we construct the most extensive spectral energy distribution of G1 to date, spanning the wavelength range from 1538 to 20 000 Å. A quantitative comparison with a variety of simple stellar population (SSP) models yields a mean age which is consistent with G1 being among the oldest building blocks of M31 and having formed within ~1.7 Gyr after the Big Bang. Irrespective of the SSP model or stellar initial mass function adopted, the resulting mass estimates (of order 107 Modot) indicate that G1 is one of the most massive GCs in the Local Group. However, we speculate that the cluster's exceptionally high mass suggests that it may not be a genuine GC. Our results also suggest that G1 may contain, on average, (1.65±0.63) × 102 Lodot far-ultraviolet-bright, hot, extreme horizontal-branch stars, depending on the adopted SSP model. In addition, we demonstrate that extensive multi-passband photometry coupled with SSP analysis enables one to obtain age estimates for old SSPs that have similar accuracies as those from integrated spectroscopy or resolved stellar photometry, provided that some of the free parameters can be constrained independently.

  15. Tropical dendrochemistry: A novel approach to estimate age and growth from ringless trees

    SciTech Connect

    Poussart,P.; Myneni, S.; Lanzirotti, A.

    2006-01-01

    Although tropical forests play an active role in the global carbon cycle and climate, their growth history remains poorly characterized compared to other ecosystems on the planet. Trees are prime candidates for the extraction of paleoclimate archives as they can be probed sub-annually, are widely distributed and can live for over 1400 years. However, dendrochronological techniques have found limited applications in the tropics because trees often lack visible growth rings. Alternative methods exist (dendrometry, radio- and stable isotopes), but the derived records are either of short-duration, lack seasonal resolution or are prohibitively labor intensive to produce. Here, we show the first X-ray microprobe synchrotron record of calcium (Ca) from a ringless Miliusa velutina tree from Thailand and use it to estimate the tree's age and growth history. The Ca age model agrees within {le}2 years of bomb-radiocarbon age estimates and confirms that the cycles are seasonal. The amplitude of the Ca annual cycle is correlated significantly with growth and annual Ca maxima correlate with the amount of dry season rainfall. Synchrotron measurements are fast and producing sufficient numbers of replicated multi-century tropical dendrochemical climate records now seems analytically feasible.

  16. Estimation of Gestational Age, Using Neonatal Anthropometry: A Cross-sectional Study in India

    PubMed Central

    Thawani, Rajat; Faridi, M.M.A.; Arora, Shilpa Khanna; Kumar, Rajeev

    2013-01-01

    Prematurity is a significant contributor to neonatal mortality in India. Conventionally, assessment of gestational age of newborns is based on New Ballard Technique, for which a paediatric specialist is needed. Anthropometry of the newborn, especially birthweight, has been used in the past to predict the gestational age of the neonate in peripheral health facilities where a trained paediatrician is often not available. We aimed to determine if neonatal anthropometric parameters, viz. birthweight, crown heel-length, head-circumference, mid-upper arm-circumference, lower segment-length, foot-length, umbilical nipple distance, calf-circumference, intermammary distance, and hand-length, can reliably predict the gestational age. The study also aimed to derive an equation for the same. We also assessed if these neonatal anthropometric parameters had a better prediction of gestational age when used in combination compared to individual parameters. We evaluated 1,000 newborns in a cross-sectional study conducted in Guru Teg Bahadur Hospital in Delhi. Detailed anthropometric estimation of the neonates was done within 48 hours after birth, using standard techniques. Gestational age was estimated using New Ballard Scoring. Out of 1,250 consecutive neonates, 1,000 were included in the study. Of them, 800 randomly-selected newborns were used in devising the model, and the remaining 200 newborns were used in validating the final model. Quadratic regression analysis using stepwise selection was used in building the predictive model. Birthweight (R=0.72), head-circumference (R=0.60), and mid-upper arm-circumference (R=0.67) were found highly correlated with gestation. The final equation to assess gestational age was as follows: Gestational age (weeks)=5.437×W–0.781×W2+2.815×HC–0.041×HC2+0.285×MUAC–22.745 where W=Weight, HC=Head-circumference and MUAC=Mid-upper arm-circumference; Adjusted R=0.76. On validation, the predictability of this equation is 46% (±1 week), 75

  17. Age and Mass Estimates for 41 Star Clusters in M33

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Jun; Zhou, Xu; Chen, Jian-Sheng

    2004-04-01

    In this second paper of our series, we estimate the age of 41 star clusters, which were detected by Melnick & D'odorico in the nearby spiral galaxy M33, by comparing the integrated photometric measurements with theoretical stellar population synthesis models of Bruzual & Charlot. Also, we calculate the mass of these star clusters using the theoretical M/L_V ratio. The results show that, these star clusters formed continuously in M33 from ˜ 7× 106 -- 1010 years and have masses between ˜ 103 and 2 ×106 M⊙. M33 frames were observed as a part of the BATC Multicolor Survey of the sky in 13 intermediate-band filters from 3800 to 10 000 Å. The relation between age and mass confirms that the sample star cluster masses systematically decrease from the oldest to the youngest.

  18. Age estimation in forensic sciences: Application of combined aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Alkass, K; Buchholz, B A; Ohtani, S; Yamamoto, T; Druid, H; Spalding, S L

    2009-11-02

    Age determination of unknown human bodies is important in the setting of a crime investigation or a mass disaster, since the age at death, birth date and year of death, as well as gender, can guide investigators to the correct identity among a large number of possible matches. Traditional morphological methods used by anthropologists to determine age are often imprecise, whereas chemical analysis of tooth dentin, such as aspartic acid racemization has shown reproducible and more precise results. In this paper we analyze teeth from Swedish individuals using both aspartic acid racemization and radiocarbon methodologies. The rationale behind using radiocarbon analysis is that above-ground testing of nuclear weapons during the cold war (1955-1963) caused an extreme increase in global levels of carbon-14 ({sup 14}C) which have been carefully recorded over time. Forty-four teeth from 41 individuals were analyzed using aspartic acid racemization analysis of tooth crown dentin or radiocarbon analysis of enamel and ten of these were split and subjected to both radiocarbon and racemization analysis. Combined analysis showed that the two methods correlated well (R2=0.66, p < 0.05). Radiocarbon analysis showed an excellent precision with an overall absolute error of 0.6 {+-} 04 years. Aspartic acid racemization also showed a good precision with an overall absolute error of 5.4 {+-} 4.2 years. Whereas radiocarbon analysis gives an estimated year of birth, racemization analysis indicates the chronological age of the individual at the time of death. We show how these methods in combination can also assist in the estimation of date of death of an unidentified victim. This strategy can be of significant assistance in forensic casework involving dead victim identification.

  19. Estimation of gestational age in Egyptian native goats by ultrasonographic fetometry.

    PubMed

    Karen, Aly M; Fattouh, El-Sayed M; Abu-Zeid, Saber S

    2009-08-01

    The main aim of the present study was to estimate the gestational age of Egyptian goats by B-mode ultrasound measurement of embryonic or fetal parts throughout pregnancy. Trans-rectal (TR) ultrasonography (7 MHz) was carried out on 15 pregnant Egyptian does at Day 10 post mating on alternate days until Day 25 and then once at 3-5-day intervals until Day 50. Trans-abdominal (TA) ultrasonography (3.5-5 MHz) was carried out on the same animals from Days 25 to 130 at 3-5-day intervals. After imaging the embryo or the fetus, the following parameters were measured: length of the embryo or fetus (CRL), heart rate (FHR), biparital diameter (BPD), trunk diameter (TD), placentome size (PS), umbilical cord diameter (UCD) and femur length (FL). The average of days at which the embryonic vesicle was first determined by TR and TA ultrasonography was 16.98+/-1.97 and 27.87+/-3.48, respectively. The embryo proper with a beating heart was first determined by TR and TA ultrasonography at an average of 22.36+/-2.66 and 30.36+/-4.75 days, respectively. All the fetal measures were significantly (P<0.0001) correlated with the gestational age. With the exception of fetal heart rate (R(2)=0.551), all the measured fetal structures were highly correlated (R(2)> or =90) with the gestational age. In conclusion, the age of embryo or fetus in Egyptian does can be estimated by ultrasound measuring the crown rump length, biparital diameter, trunk diameter, placentome size, umbilical cord diameter and femur length. PMID:18805657

  20. Estimation of mechanical properties of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K.

    1991-10-01

    A procedure and correlations are presented for predicting Charpy- impact energy, tensile flow stress, fracture toughness J-R curve, and J{sub IC} of aged cast stainless steels from known material information. The ``saturation`` impact strength and fracture toughness of a specific cast stainless steel, i.e., the minimum value that would be achieved for the material after long-term service, is estimated from the chemical composition of the steel. Mechanical properties as a function of time and temperature of reactor service are estimated from impact energy and flow stress of the unaged material and the kinetics of embrittlement, which are also determined from chemical composition. The J{sub IC} values are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented. A common ``lower-bound`` J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, ferrite content, and temperature.

  1. Obtaining appropriate interval estimates for age when multiple indicators are used: evaluation of an ad-hoc procedure.

    PubMed

    Fieuws, Steffen; Willems, Guy; Larsen-Tangmose, Sara; Lynnerup, Niels; Boldsen, Jesper; Thevissen, Patrick

    2016-03-01

    When an estimate of age is needed, typically multiple indicators are present as found in skeletal or dental information. There exists a vast literature on approaches to estimate age from such multivariate data. Application of Bayes' rule has been proposed to overcome drawbacks of classical regression models but becomes less trivial as soon as the number of indicators increases. Each of the age indicators can lead to a different point estimate ("the most plausible value for age") and a prediction interval ("the range of possible values"). The major challenge in the combination of multiple indicators is not the calculation of a combined point estimate for age but the construction of an appropriate prediction interval. Ignoring the correlation between the age indicators results in intervals being too small. Boldsen et al. (2002) presented an ad-hoc procedure to construct an approximate confidence interval without the need to model the multivariate correlation structure between the indicators. The aim of the present paper is to bring under attention this pragmatic approach and to evaluate its performance in a practical setting. This is all the more needed since recent publications ignore the need for interval estimation. To illustrate and evaluate the method, Köhler et al. (1995) third molar scores are used to estimate the age in a dataset of 3200 male subjects in the juvenile age range. PMID:26024791

  2. Age Estimation in Living Adults using 3D Volume Rendered CT Images of the Sternal Plastron and Lower Chest.

    PubMed

    Oldrini, Guillaume; Harter, Valentin; Witte, Yannick; Martrille, Laurent; Blum, Alain

    2016-01-01

    Age estimation is commonly of interest in a judicial context. In adults, it is less documented than in children. The aim of this study was to evaluate age estimation in adults using CT images of the sternal plastron with volume rendering technique (VRT). The evaluation criteria are derived from known methods used for age estimation and are applicable in living or dead subjects. The VRT images of 456 patients were analyzed. Two radiologists performed age estimation independently from an anterior view of the plastron. Interobserver agreement and correlation coefficients between each reader's classification and real age were calculated. The interobserver agreement was 0.86, and the correlation coefficients between readers classifications and real age classes were 0.60 and 0.65. Spearman correlation coefficients were, respectively, 0.89, 0.67, and 0.71. Analysis of the plastron using VRT allows age estimation in vivo quickly and with results similar than methods such as Iscan, Suchey-Brooks, and radiographs used to estimate the age of death. PMID:27092960

  3. Estimation of age from stained sections of canine teeth in the Cape fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus).

    PubMed

    Oosthuizen, W H; Greyling, F J; Bester, M N

    1998-02-01

    Methods of cutting and staining thin sections of Cape fur seal canines are described. The accuracy of age determination from the histology of the prepared sections and the suitability of the sectioning method is assessed. Known-age canines were used to validate age determination. Longitudinal sections along the midline enable growth layer groups (GLGs) in the dentine to be counted along the length of the canine root. GLGs in the cementum were either absent, or returned estimates of age that were too low. Only GLGs in the dentine of female upper canines could be used to determine age reliably, and only for the < 10 year age-classes. PMID:9722409

  4. Population-Calibrated Gene Characterization: Estimating Age at Onset Distributions Associated With Cancer Genes

    PubMed Central

    Iversen, Edwin S.; Chen, Sining

    2008-01-01

    Phenotypic characterization of rare disease genes poses a significant statistical challenge, but the need to do so is clear. Clinical management of patients carrying a disease gene depends crucially on an accurate characterization of the genetically predisposed disease, including its likelihood of occurrence among mutation carriers, natural history, and response to treatment. We propose a formal yet practical method for controlling for bias due to ignoring ascertainment, defined as the sampling mechanism, when quantifying the association between genotype and disease using data on high-risk families. The approach is more statistically efficient than conditioning on the variables used in sampling. In it, the likelihood is adjusted by a factor that is a function of sampling weights in strata defined by those variables. It requires that these variables and the sampling probabilities in the strata they define either are known or can be estimated. The latter requires a second, population-based dataset. As an example, we derive ascertainment-corrected estimates of penetrance for the breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. The Bayesian analysis that we use incorporates a modified segregation model and prior data on penetrance derived from the literature. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used for inference. PMID:18418465

  5. Age estimation using development of third molars in South Indian population: A radiological study

    PubMed Central

    Priyadharshini, K. Indra; Idiculla, Jose Joy; Sivapathasundaram, B.; Mohanbabu, V.; Augustine, Dominic; Patil, Shankargouda

    2015-01-01

    Aim: To assess the estimation of chronological age based on the stages of third molar development following the eight stages (A–H) method of Demirjian et al. in Chennai population of South India. Materials and Methods: A sample consisting of 848 individuals (471 males and 377 females) aged between 14 and 30 years was randomly selected for the clinical evaluation and 323 orthopantomograms with clinically missing third molars were taken for radiological evaluation using Demirjian's method from a Chennai population of known chronological age and sex. Statistical analysis was performed using Pearson's Chi-square test and mean values were compared between the study groups using t-test or analysis of variance (ANOVA) followed by Tukey's highly significant difference (HSD). In the present study, P < 0.05 was considered as the level of significance. Results: The results showed that the mean age of having clinically completely erupted maxillary third molars was 22.41 years in male subjects and 23.81 years in female subjects and that of mandibular third molars was 21.49 years in male subjects and 23.34 years in female subjects. Mandibular third molars were clinically missing more often in females than in males. Eruption of mandibular third molars was generally ahead of the emergence of maxillary third molars into the oral cavity. Third molar development between male and female subjects showed statistically significant differences at calcification stage F and stage G in maxillary third molars and stage F in mandibular third molars (P < 0.05). Conclusion: There are differences indicating that maxillary and mandibular third molar eruption reached Demirjian's formation stages earlier in males than in females. It is suggested that in future studies, to increase the accuracy of age determination, indications of sexual maturity and ossification should also be evaluated in addition to third molar mineralization. PMID:25984465

  6. Age estimation by pulp/tooth area ratio in canines: Cameriere's method assessed in an Indian sample using radiovisiography.

    PubMed

    Jeevan, M B; Kale, Alka D; Angadi, Punnya V; Hallikerimath, Seema

    2011-01-30

    Age estimation of an individual whether living or dead is an intimidating task in forensic investigations. Since teeth are more resistant to most peri- and post-mortem changes, they are frequently used for identification and age estimation when skeletal remains are in poor condition. However, most methods are destructive and warrant extraction of teeth which is not feasible in living individuals. Cameriere's et al. put forth a radiographic method of age estimation by pulp to tooth area ratio (AR) in canines and revealed a linear regression between age and the AR. In the present study, we estimated the AR in 456 canines (upper, lower and both) in an Indian sample (114 males and 114 females) using radiovisiography technique. Linear regression equations were derived for upper canine, lower canine and both using the AR to estimate chronological age. Additionally, the efficacy of these equations was also evaluated in younger age group (<45 years). The formulas derived, i.e., age=96.795-513.561x(1) (Eq. (1)) for upper canine, age=88.308-458.137x(2) (Eq. (2)) for lower canine and age=99.190-283.537x(1)-306.902x(2)+400.873x(1)x(2) (Eq. (3)) for both the canines were applied to predict the chronological age. The mean value of residuals using these regression equations ranged from 4.28 to 6.39 years with upper canine equation generally giving a precise result. When these equations were applied for younger ages (<45 years), the regression equation derived from both canines gave a better result (mean residual 2.70 years). Overall these equations were better able to predict the age in younger ages, i.e., up to 45 years. PMID:20869824

  7. Estimation of age based on tooth cementum annulations: A comparative study using light, polarized, and phase contrast microscopy

    PubMed Central

    Kaur, Prabhpreet; Astekar, Madhusudan; Singh, Jappreet; Arora, Karandeep Singh; Bhalla, Gagandeep

    2015-01-01

    Context: The identification of living or deceased persons using unique traits and characteristics of the teeth and jaws is a cornerstone of forensic science. Teeth have been used to estimate age both in the young and old, as well as in the living and dead. Gradual structural changes in teeth throughout life are the basis for age estimation. Tooth cementum annulation (TCA) is a microscopic method for the determination of an individual's age based on the analysis of incremental lines of cementum. Aim: To compare ages estimated using incremental lines of cementum as visualized by bright field microscopy, polarized microscopy, and phase contrast microscopy with the actual age of subject and to determine accuracy and feasibility of the method used. Materials and Methods: Cementum annulations of 60 permanent teeth were analyzed after longitudinal ground sections were made in the mesiodistal plane. The incremental lines were counted manually using a light, polarized and phase contrast microscopy. Ages were estimated and then compared with the actual age of individual. Statistical Analysis: Analysis of variance (ANOVA), Student's t-test, the Pearson product-moment corre (PPMCC) and regression analysis were performed. Results: PPMCC value r = 0.347, 0.542 and 0.989 were obtained using light, polarized and phase contrast microscopy methods respectively. Conclusion: It was concluded that incremental lines of cementum were most clearly visible under a phase contrast microscope, followed by a polarized microscope, and then a light microscope when used for age estimation. PMID:26816462

  8. Estimating Age Ratios and Size of Pacific Walrus Herds on Coastal Haulouts using Video Imaging

    PubMed Central

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  9. Estimating age ratios and size of Pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Monson, Daniel H.; Udevitz, Mark S.; Jay, Chadwick V.

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010–2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m2 (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03–0.06) and we documented ~30,000 animals along ~1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0–2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species.

  10. Estimating age ratios and size of pacific walrus herds on coastal haulouts using video imaging.

    PubMed

    Monson, Daniel H; Udevitz, Mark S; Jay, Chadwick V

    2013-01-01

    During Arctic summers, sea ice provides resting habitat for Pacific walruses as it drifts over foraging areas in the eastern Chukchi Sea. Climate-driven reductions in sea ice have recently created ice-free conditions in the Chukchi Sea by late summer causing walruses to rest at coastal haulouts along the Chukotka and Alaska coasts, which provides an opportunity to study walruses at relatively accessible locations. Walrus age can be determined from the ratio of tusk length to snout dimensions. We evaluated use of images obtained from a gyro-stabilized video system mounted on a helicopter flying at high altitudes (to avoid disturbance) to classify the sex and age of walruses hauled out on Alaska beaches in 2010-2011. We were able to classify 95% of randomly selected individuals to either an 8- or 3-category age class, and we found measurement-based age classifications were more repeatable than visual classifications when using images presenting the correct head profile. Herd density at coastal haulouts averaged 0.88 walruses/m(2) (std. err. = 0.02), herd size ranged from 8,300 to 19,400 (CV 0.03-0.06) and we documented ∼30,000 animals along ∼1 km of beach in 2011. Within the herds, dependent walruses (0-2 yr-olds) tended to be located closer to water, and this tendency became more pronounced as the herd spent more time on the beach. Therefore, unbiased estimation of herd age-ratios will require a sampling design that allows for spatial and temporal structuring. In addition, randomly sampling walruses available at the edge of the herd for other purposes (e.g., tagging, biopsying) will not sample walruses with an age structure representative of the herd. Sea ice losses are projected to continue, and population age structure data collected with aerial videography at coastal haulouts may provide demographic information vital to ongoing efforts to understand effects of climate change on this species. PMID:23936106

  11. Improving artificial forest biomass estimates using afforestation age information from time series Landsat stacks.

    PubMed

    Liu, Liangyun; Peng, Dailiang; Wang, Zhihui; Hu, Yong

    2014-11-01

    China maintains the largest artificial forest area in the world. Studying the dynamic variation of forest biomass and carbon stock is important to the sustainable use of forest resources and understanding of the artificial forest carbon budget in China. In this study, we investigated the potential of Landsat time series stacks for aboveground biomass (AGB) estimation in Yulin District, a key region of the Three-North Shelter region of China. Firstly, the afforestation age was successfully retrieved from the Landsat time series stacks in the last 40 years (from 1974 to 2013) and shown to be consistent with the surveyed tree ages, with a root-mean-square error (RMSE) value of 4.32 years and a determination coefficient (R (2)) of 0.824. Then, the AGB regression models were successfully developed by integrating vegetation indices and tree age. The simple ratio vegetation index (SR) is the best candidate of the commonly used vegetation indices for estimating forest AGB, and the forest AGB model was significantly improved using the combination of SR and tree age, with R (2) values from 0.50 to 0.727. Finally, the forest AGB images were mapped at eight epochs from 1985 to 2013 using SR and afforestation age. The total forest AGB in seven counties of Yulin District increased by 20.8 G kg, from 5.8 G kg in 1986 to 26.6 G kg in 2013, a total increase of 360 %. For the persistent forest area since 1974, the forest AGB density increased from 15.72 t/ha in 1986 to 44.53 t/ha in 2013, with an annual rate of about 0.98 t/ha. For the artificial forest planted after 1974, the AGB density increased about 1.03 t/ha a year from 1974 to 2013. The results present a noticeable carbon increment for the planted artificial forest in Yulin District over the last four decades. PMID:25034235

  12. Estimating Risks of Heat Strain by Age and Sex: A Population-Level Simulation Model

    PubMed Central

    Glass, Kathryn; Tait, Peter W.; Hanna, Elizabeth G.; Dear, Keith

    2015-01-01

    Individuals living in hot climates face health risks from hyperthermia due to excessive heat. Heat strain is influenced by weather exposure and by individual characteristics such as age, sex, body size, and occupation. To explore the population-level drivers of heat strain, we developed a simulation model that scales up individual risks of heat storage (estimated using Myrup and Morgan’s man model “MANMO”) to a large population. Using Australian weather data, we identify high-risk weather conditions together with individual characteristics that increase the risk of heat stress under these conditions. The model identifies elevated risks in children and the elderly, with females aged 75 and older those most likely to experience heat strain. Risk of heat strain in males does not increase as rapidly with age, but is greatest on hot days with high solar radiation. Although cloudy days are less dangerous for the wider population, older women still have an elevated risk of heat strain on hot cloudy days or when indoors during high temperatures. Simulation models provide a valuable method for exploring population level risks of heat strain, and a tool for evaluating public health and other government policy interventions. PMID:25993102

  13. Image analysis of pubic bone for age estimation in a computed tomography sample.

    PubMed

    López-Alcaraz, Manuel; González, Pedro Manuel Garamendi; Aguilera, Inmaculada Alemán; López, Miguel Botella

    2015-03-01

    Radiology has demonstrated great utility for age estimation, but most of the studies are based on metrical and morphological methods in order to perform an identification profile. A simple image analysis-based method is presented, aimed to correlate the bony tissue ultrastructure with several variables obtained from the grey-level histogram (GLH) of computed tomography (CT) sagittal sections of the pubic symphysis surface and the pubic body, and relating them with age. The CT sample consisted of 169 hospital Digital Imaging and Communications in Medicine (DICOM) archives of known sex and age. The calculated multiple regression models showed a maximum R (2) of 0.533 for females and 0.726 for males, with a high intra- and inter-observer agreement. The method suggested is considered not only useful for performing an identification profile during virtopsy, but also for application in further studies in order to attach a quantitative correlation for tissue ultrastructure characteristics, without complex and expensive methods beyond image analysis. PMID:24986514

  14. Simple mathematical formulae for estimation of median values of fetal biometry at each gestational age

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Hwa Young; Kim, Jeong Ha; Park, Jee Yoon; Jung, Eun Young; No, Jae Hong; Oh, Kyung Joon

    2016-01-01

    Objective The aim of this study was to propose simple mathematical formulae to estimate median values of fetal biometry including biparietal diameter (BPD), abdominal circumference (AC) and femur length (FL) at each gestational age (GA) easily without looking up the previously established reference values. Methods Simple mathematical formulae to estimate median values of fetal biometric values at each gestational week were inferred. To validate these formulae, three different linear equations were derived from previously reported reference values of median BPD, AC and FL using regression analysis at each gestational week. Finally, calculated data through the inferred formula were compared to retrospectively collected data (observed data). Results The equation revealing the relationship between BPD and GA was: median BPD (cm)=GA (wk)/4. Using this simple mathematical formula, the absolute percentage error between observed data and calculated data ranged from 0.12% to 7.50%. The equation between AC and GA was: median AC (cm)=GA (wk)-5. Through this formula, the absolute percentage error was analyzed same as above and it ranged from 0.30% to 4.76%. Lastly the derived formula between FL and GA was: median FL (cm)=GA (wk)/5 and the absolute percentage error ranged from 4.52% to 16.75%. Conclusion The three simple formulae suggested in our study showed a significantly easy way to estimate the median values of fetal biometry at each gestational week with good reliability. PMID:27004198

  15. ON A NEW NEAR-INFRARED METHOD TO ESTIMATE THE ABSOLUTE AGES OF STAR CLUSTERS: NGC 3201 AS A FIRST TEST CASE

    SciTech Connect

    Bono, G.; Di Cecco, A.; Sanna, N.; Buonanno, R.; Stetson, P. B.; VandenBerg, D. A.; Calamida, A.; Amico, P.; Marchetti, E.; D'Odorico, S.; Gilmozzi, R.; Dall'Ora, M.; Iannicola, G.; Caputo, F.; Corsi, C. E.; Ferraro, I.; Monelli, M.; Walker, A. R.; Zoccali, M.; Degl'Innocenti, S.

    2010-01-10

    We present a new method to estimate the absolute ages of stellar systems. This method is based on the difference in magnitude between the main-sequence turnoff (MSTO) and a well-defined knee located along the lower main sequence (MSK). This feature is caused by the collisionally induced absorption of molecular hydrogen, and it can easily be identified in near-infrared (NIR) and in optical-NIR color-magnitude diagrams of stellar systems. We took advantage of deep and accurate NIR images collected with the Multi-Conjugate Adaptive Optics Demonstrator temporarily available on the Very Large Telescope and of optical images collected with the Advanced Camera for Surveys Wide Field Camera on the Hubble Space Telescope and with ground-based telescopes to estimate the absolute age of the globular NGC 3201 using both the MSTO and the {delta}(MSTO-MSK). We have adopted a new set of cluster isochrones, and we found that the absolute ages based on the two methods agree to within 1{sigma}. However, the errors of the ages based on the {delta}(MSTO-MSK) method are potentially more than a factor of 2 smaller, since they are not affected by uncertainties in cluster distance or reddening. Current isochrones appear to predict slightly bluer ({approx}0.05 mag) NIR and optical-NIR colors than observed for magnitudes fainter than the MSK.

  16. Estimation of individual age and season of death in woolly rhinoceros, Coelodonta antiquitatis (Blumenbach, 1799), from Sakha-Yakutia, Russia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kirillova, Irina V.; Shidlovskiy, Fedor K.

    2010-11-01

    A unique find of a woolly rhinoceros skull bearing both nasal and frontal horns is described from a thermokarst lake of the Bol'shaya Chukoch'ya River basin in north-eastern Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), Russia. Based on counts of cementum layers of the maxillary first molar and dark and transverse bands of the nasal and frontal horns a correlation of individual age records within these structures is established. Both estimations of individual age are agreed as well as three other age estimation criteria followed from cranial characteristics, general aspects of dentition and tooth wear pattern. Thus, the number of horn bands, which is equal to 30 or 31, does express the individual age at the moment when the woolly rhinoceros died. The tooth cementum and both horns are proved to be recording structures of woolly rhinoceroses which can be used as precise individual age estimation criteria. The season in which death occurred is also discussed.

  17. How accurately can students estimate their performance on an exam and how does this relate to their actual performance on the exam?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rebello, N. Sanjay

    2012-02-01

    Research has shown students' beliefs regarding their own abilities in math and science can influence their performance in these disciplines. I investigated the relationship between students' estimated performance and actual performance on five exams in a second semester calculus-based physics class. Students in a second-semester calculus-based physics class were given about 72 hours after the completion of each of five exams, to estimate their individual and class mean score on each exam. Students were given extra credit worth 1% of the exam points for estimating their score correct within 2% of the actual score and another 1% extra credit for estimating the class mean score within 2% of the correct value. I compared students' individual and mean score estimations with the actual scores to investigate the relationship between estimation accuracies and exam performance of the students as well as trends over the semester.

  18. Estimating the age of deciduous forests in northeast China with Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data acquired in different phenological seasons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Dengqiu; Ju, Weimin; Fan, Wenyi; Gu, Zhujun

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the ability of Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus data acquired in leaf-on and leaf-off seasons to estimate stand age of Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla in northeast China. The relationships of six band reflectances, nine vegetation indices, and six texture measures with stand age were examined. Linear and multivariable regression models and multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) were employed to estimate forest age based on these variables. The results indicate that reflectance in short-wave infrared bands and wetness are more significantly correlated with stand age in the leaf-on image, while reflectance in blue and green bands and greenness are more sensitive to stand age in leaf-off image. The MLP NN model can be effectively used to retrieve the stand age; the highest coefficient of determination and minimum root mean square error values of retrieved age are 0.47 and 21.3 years for Larix gmelinii, and 0.60 and 10.1 years for Betula platyphylla, respectively. The predicted age errors increased significantly when stand ages were >100 and >50 years for Larix gmelinii and Betula platyphylla, respectively. Remote sensing data acquired in the leaf-on season is more suitable for estimating forest age than that acquired in the leaf-off season over the study area.

  19. Geomorphologic Features and Age Estimation of Submarine Landslides in the Southwestern Colombian Caribbean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Idarraga Garcia, J.; Vargas-Jimenez, C. A.

    2013-05-01

    We analyzed ~17000 km2 of high-resolution-bathymetric data in the southwestern Caribbean Sea of Colombia between the La Aguja Submarine Canyon (LASC) and the Gulf of Urabá. The data allowed us to identify and describe submarine landslides and to calculate their ages based on scarp dating by using numerical solutions of the diffusion equation. The ages are presented in terms of the constant k of diffusivity due to the absence of well constrained values for submarine environments. In the northeastern sector of the study area we differentiated 31 submarine failures associated with the LASC flanks, between 1200 and 3285 m depth, with escarpments slopes ranging between 6.1° and 36.8°; estimated ages suggest ranges between ~407 and ~103.5 k (m2). Triggering mechanisms of these landslides are close related to the occurrence of earthquakes originated in the convergence zone of the Santa Marta and Oca fault systems, and to the flanks instabilities product of the mud diapirism phenomena that is present in the area. In the central sector of the study zone, the continental margin is dominated by the presence of the Magdalena Submarine Fan (MSF). Here, most of the submarine failures are disintegrative (i.e. with no obvious deposit near or at the base of the scar) and all are related to a system of canyons belonging to the Magdalena turbidite system and to an abrupt slope break at the border of the continental shelf. Scarp dating suggests a wide range of ages fluctuating between ~207.1 and ~146427.8 k (m2). Landslides at southernmost sector of the study zone are mainly associated to anticline-related ridges of the Sinú Accretionary Prism. These ridges are structural highs cut by channels and canyons, and are associated with slopes of 10°-25°. In many cases, the failures are disintegrative and it is probable that the associated landslide deposits are buried by subsequent sediments related to broad fans forming in the mouth of channels and canyons. Additionally, some

  20. Contribution of Quantitative Methods of Estimating Mortality Dynamics to Explaining Mechanisms of Aging.

    PubMed

    Shilovsky, G A; Putyatina, T S; Markov, A V; Skulachev, V P

    2015-12-01

    Accumulation of various types of unrepaired damage of the genome because of increasing production of reactive oxygen species and decreasing efficiency of the antioxidant defense system and repair systems can cause age-related diseases and emergence of phenotypic signs of senescence. This should lead to increasing vulnerability and to mortality monotonously increasing with age independently of the position of the species on the evolutionary tree. In this light, the survival, mortality, and fertility curves for 45 animal and plant species and one alga published by the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (Germany/Denmark) are of special interest (Jones, O. R., et al. (2014) Nature, 505, 169-173). We divided all species treated in that study into four groups according to the ratio of mortality at the terminal age (which corresponds to 5% survival) and average mortality during the entire studied period. For animals of group IV (long-lived and senescent), including humans, the Jones method makes it possible to trace mortality during the entire life cycle. The same applies to short-lived animals (e.g. nematodes or the tundra vole), whether they display the Gompertz type of senescence or not. However, in long-lived species with a less pronounced increase in mortality with age (e.g. the freshwater crocodile, hermit crab, or Scots pine), as well as in animals of average lifespan that reach the terminal age earlier than they could have enough time to become senescent, the Jones method is capable of characterizing only a small part of the life cycle and does not allow judging how senescence manifests itself at late stages of the life cycle. Thus, it is known that old trees display signs of biological senescence rather clearly; although Jones et al. consider them non-senescent organisms because less than 5% of sexually mature individuals survive to display the first manifestations of these characters. We have concluded that the classification proposed by Jones et al

  1. Differences in geriatric anthropometric data between DXA-based subject-specific estimates and non-age-specific traditional regression models

    PubMed Central

    Sukits, Alison L.; McCrory, Jean L.; Cham, Rakié

    2016-01-01

    Age, obesity, and gender can have a significant impact on the anthropometrics of adults aged 65 and older. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in body segment parameters derived using two methods: (1) a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) subject-specific method (Chambers et al., 2010) and (2) traditional regression models (de Leva, 1996). The impact of aging, gender, and obesity on the potential differences between these methods was examined. Eighty-three healthy older adults were recruited for participation. Participants underwent a whole-body DXA scan (Hologic QDR 1000/W). Mass, length, center of mass, and radius of gyration were determined for each segment. In addition, traditional regressions were used to estimate these parameters (de Leva, 1996). A mixed linear regression model was performed (α = 0.05). Method type was significant in every variable of interest except forearm segment mass. The obesity and gender differences that we observed translate into differences associated with using traditional regressions to predict anthropometric variables in an aging population. Our data point to a need to consider age, obesity, and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets and to develop regression models that accurately predict body segment parameters in the geriatric population, considering gender and obesity. PMID:21844608

  2. Differences in geriatric anthropometric data between DXA-based subject-specific estimates and non-age-specific traditional regression models.

    PubMed

    Chambers, April J; Sukits, Alison L; McCrory, Jean L; Cham, Rakie

    2011-08-01

    Age, obesity, and gender can have a significant impact on the anthropometrics of adults aged 65 and older. The aim of this study was to investigate differences in body segment parameters derived using two methods: (1) a dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) subject-specific method (Chambers et al., 2010) and (2) traditional regression models (de Leva, 1996). The impact of aging, gender, and obesity on the potential differences between these methods was examined. Eighty-three healthy older adults were recruited for participation. Participants underwent a whole-body DXA scan (Hologic QDR 1000/W). Mass, length, center of mass, and radius of gyration were determined for each segment. In addition, traditional regressions were used to estimate these parameters (de Leva, 1996). A mixed linear regression model was performed (α = 0.05). Method type was significant in every variable of interest except forearm segment mass. The obesity and gender differences that we observed translate into differences associated with using traditional regressions to predict anthropometric variables in an aging population. Our data point to a need to consider age, obesity, and gender when utilizing anthropometric data sets and to develop regression models that accurately predict body segment parameters in the geriatric population, considering gender and obesity. PMID:21844608

  3. Estimation of age of Dali-Ganis rifting and associated volcanic activity, Venus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Basilevsky, A. T.

    1993-01-01

    This paper deals with the estimation of age for the Dali and Ganis Chasma rift zones and their associated volcanism based on photogeologic analysis of stratigraphic relations of rift-associated features with impact craters which have associated features indicative of their age. The features are radar-dark and parabolic, and they are believed to be mantles of debris derived from fallout of the craters' ejecta. They are thought to be among the youngest features on the Venusian surface, so their 'parent' craters must also be very young, evidently among the youngest 10 percent of Venus' crater population. Dali Chasma and Ganis Chasma are a part of a system of rift zones contained within eastern Aphrodite and Atla Regio which is a significant component of Venus tectonics. The rifts of this system are fracture belts which dissect typical Venusian plains with rare islands of tessera terrain. The rift zone system consists of several segments following each other (Diane, Dali, Ganis) and forming the major rift zone line, about 10,000 km long, which has junctions with several other rift zones, including Parga Chasma Rift. The junctions are usually locations of rift-associated volcanism in the form of volcanic edifices (Maat and Ozza Montes) or plain-forming flows flooding some areas within the rift zones and the adjacent plains.

  4. Improved age estimates for key Late Quaternary European tephra horizons in the RESET lattice

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bronk Ramsey, Christopher; Albert, Paul G.; Blockley, Simon P. E.; Hardiman, Mark; Housley, Rupert A.; Lane, Christine S.; Lee, Sharen; Matthews, Ian P.; Smith, Victoria C.; Lowe, John J.

    2015-06-01

    The research project 'Response of Humans to Abrupt Environmental Transitions' (RESET) used tephra layers to tie together and synchronise the chronologies of stratigraphic records at archaeological and environmental sites. With the increasing importance of tephra as chronological markers in sedimentary sequences, both in this project and more generally, comes a requirement to have good estimates for the absolute age of these volcanic horizons. This paper summarises the chronology of the key tephra in the RESET tephra lattice in the time range 10-60 ka BP, from the existing literature, from papers produced as part of the RESET project, and reanalysis conducted for this paper. The paper outlines the chronological approach taken to the dating of tephra within the RESET project, and the basis for further work, as part of the INTIMATE (INTegrating Ice core MArine and TErrestrial records) initiative. For each of the tephra layers in the lattice, the existing literature is discussed and, where relevant date estimates updated using the latest radiocarbon calibration curves (IntCal13 and Marine13) and methods. Maps show the approximate extent of tephra finds, giving a visual indication of the coverage of the lattice in different time-periods.

  5. Revised age estimates of Brunhes palaeomagnetic events - Support for a link between geomagnetism and eccentricity

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rampino, M. R.

    1981-01-01

    Revisions in the dates of reported geomagnetic excursions during the Brunhes Epoch are proposed in light of possible correlations between a section at Gioia Tauro, Italy, deep-sea cores, a core from Lake Biwa, Japan, and some lava flows. The anomalously long, double Blake Event reported at Gioia Tauro is here correlated with the Blake Event (approximately 110 kyr) and the Biwa 1 event (180 plus or minus 5 kyr); an hiatus may be present in the section between these two events. The alpha event at Gioia Tauro is correlated with the Biwa 2 event at about 295 kyr; the beta event with the 'Biwa 3' event at about 400 kyr; the gamma event with the Snake River event at 480 plus or minus 50; and the delta event, not recorded elsewhere, is estimated to have occurred at approximately 620 kyr. These proposed refinements in the age estimates of the excursions suggest an approximately 100 kyr cyclicity. If the events are real and the revised dating is correct, the timing of the geomagnetic events seems to coincide with times of peak eccentricity of the earth's orbit, suggesting a causal connection.

  6. Age calibration of carbonate rind thickness in late Pleistocene soils for surficial deposit age estimation, Southwest USA

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Amoroso, L.

    2006-01-01

    Carbonate rinds have been used for cross-correlation of landforms as well as a quantitative indicator of soil age. Using the measured rind thickness of clasts found within a deposit, whose age has been independently determined, allows the construction of a calibrated surface-age proxy. Measurements were taken at sites within the Mojave Desert, the northwestern Sonoran Desert, the southern Great Basin, and the western Colorado Plateau. These sites are all within about 300 km of the intersection of the borders of the states of California, Arizona, and Nevada. In the study area, elevation varied from 200 to 1200 m, MAP was from 95 to 195 mm, and MAT was from 18.4?? to 23.3??. The calibrated proxy, while not accounting for the effects of parent material or climate on rind development, does show a strong correlation (R2 = 0.74, P < 0.05) between carbonate rind thickness and surface age for deposits of late to middle Pleistocene age. The calibrated chronosequence, rind thickness = 0.0889 + 0.0079 [surface age]), is in general valid over a large region of southwestern United States. This statistical relation suggests that parent material, climate, and elevation may not be as strong a control on carbonate accumulation as is age for younger soils.

  7. Objective estimation of patient age through a new composite scale for facial aging assessment: The face - Objective assessment scale.

    PubMed

    La Padula, Simone; Hersant, Barbara; SidAhmed, Mounia; Niddam, Jeremy; Meningaud, Jean Paul

    2016-07-01

    Most patients requesting aesthetic rejuvenation treatment expect to look healthier and younger. Some scales for ageing assessment have been proposed, but none is focused on patient age prediction. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a new facial rating scale assessing facial ageing sign severity. One thousand Caucasian patients were included and assessed. The Rasch model was used as part of the validation process. A score was attributed to each patient, based on the scales we developed. The correlation between the real age and scores obtained, the inter-rater reliability and test-retest reliability were analysed. The objective was to develop a tool enabling the assigning of a patient to a specific age range based on the calculated score. All scales exceeded criteria for acceptability, reliability and validity. The real age strongly correlated with the total facial score in both sex groups. The test-retest reliability confirmed this strong correlation. We developed a facial ageing scale which could be a useful tool to assess patients before and after rejuvenation treatment and an important new metrics to be used in facial rejuvenation and regenerative clinical research. PMID:27221225

  8. Ages and Accumulation Rates of the Martian Polar Layered Deposits Estimated from Orbital Tuning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sori, M.; Bailey, E. A.; Perron, J.; Huybers, P. J.; Aharonson, O.; Limaye, A.

    2013-12-01

    Layers of dusty water ice in the polar caps of Mars have been hypothesized to record climate changes driven by variation of the planet's orbit and spin axis, but the time interval over which the polar layered deposits (PLDs) formed is unknown, and an orbital influence has not been conclusively demonstrated. We performed orbital tuning of reconstructed PLD stratigraphic sequences in an attempt to constrain the accumulation interval and test for the presence of an orbital signal. Our procedure uses dynamic time warping (DTW) to search for a match between two time series - the polar insolation history and brightness or topographic information in the PLDs - and then assesses the significance of potential matches using a Monte Carlo procedure. We selected 30 images of the northern PLDs from the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) aboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and used Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter profiles to transform each image into a record of image brightness as a function of vertical depth. To constrain the PLD age and accumulation rate, we tuned each image record to Martian insolation records for varying time intervals. If a particular insolation interval produced the strongest match to an image, and if the match became weaker as the image was tuned to progressively longer or shorter intervals, we chose the best-fitting interval as an estimated accumulation time for that PLD sequence, and used the depth range to estimate a corresponding PLD accumulation rate. We also tuned the insolation records to synthetic records containing no orbital influence to test whether the image matches were spurious. Of the 30 MOC images analyzed, 16 produce insolation intervals that we consider strong matches. These images yield an average deposition rate of 0.5 × 0.2 mm/yr for the northern PLDs. The images represent only a fraction of the entire stratigraphy; extrapolating that deposition rate farther back in time yields an age of ~4 Ma for the entire PLD sequence present in the

  9. Age Invariance in Semantic and Episodic Metamemory: Both Younger and Older Adults Provide Accurate Feeling of Knowing For Names of Faces

    PubMed Central

    Eakin, Deborah K.; Hertzog, Christopher; Harris, William

    2013-01-01

    Age differences in feeling-of-knowing (FOK) accuracy were examined for both episodic memory and semantic memory. Younger and older adults either viewed pictures of famous faces (semantic memory) or associated nonfamous faces and names (episodic memory) and were tested on their memory for the name of the presented face. Participants viewed the faces again and made a FOK prediction about future recognition of the name associated with the presented face. Finally, four-alternative forced-choice recognition memory for the name, cued by the face, was tested and confidence judgments (CJs) were collected for each recognition response. Age differences were not obtained in semantic memory or the resolution of semantic FOKs, defined by within-person correlations of FOKs with recognition memory performance. Although age differences were obtained in level of episodic memory, there were no age differences in the resolution of episodic FOKs. FOKs for correctly recognized items correlated reliably with CJs for both types of materials, and did not differ by age group. The results indicate age invariance in monitoring of retrieval processes for name-face associations. PMID:23537379

  10. Family Sponsorship and Late-Age Immigration in Aging America: Revised and Expanded Estimates of Chained Migration

    PubMed Central

    Carr, Stacie; Tienda, Marta

    2013-01-01

    We use the Immigrants Admitted to the United States (micro-data) supplemented with special tabulations from the Department of Homeland Security to examine how family reunification impacts the age composition of new immigrant cohorts since 1980. We develop a family migration multiplier measure for the period 1981 to 2009 that improves on prior studies by including immigrants granted legal status under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act and relaxing unrealistic assumptions required by synthetic cohort measures. Results show that every 100 initiating immigrants admitted between 1981–85 sponsored an average of 260 family members; the comparable figure for initiating immigrants for the 1996–2000 cohort is 345 family members. Furthermore, the number of family migrants ages 50 and over rose from 44 to 74 per 100 initiating migrants. The discussion considers the health and welfare implications of late-age immigration in a climate of growing fiscal restraint and an aging native population. PMID:24415816

  11. Age-at-death estimation by pulp/tooth area ratio in canines: study of a 20th-century Mexican sample of prisoners to test Cameriere's method.

    PubMed

    De Luca, Stefano; Bautista, Josefina; Alemán, Inmaculada; Cameriere, Roberto

    2011-09-01

    Accurate age estimation has always been a problem for forensic scientists, and apposition of secondary dentine is often used as an indicator of age. Cameriere et al. studied the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-ray images of the canines, to observe the apposition of secondary dentine. The present study examines the application of this technique in a Mexican identified sample coming from the Department of Physical Anthropology of the INAH, at Mexico City. The main aim of this work is to test the reliability of this method in a skeletal sample of a specific population, different from the samples used for its development. The obtained regression model explained 96.2% of total variance (R(2) = 0.962) with a standard error of estimate of 1.909 and a standard deviation of 1.947. These results demonstrate great reliability and that the age/secondary dentine relationship is not variable in this specific population. PMID:21496018

  12. Age determination of raccoons

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Grau, G.A.; Sanderson, G.C.; Rogers, J.P.

    1970-01-01

    Age criteria, based on 61 skulls and eye lenses from 103 known-age captives, are described for separating raccoons (Procyon lotor) into eight age-classes as follows: young-of-the-year, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6-7, > 7 years. Criteria studied were eye lens nitrogen, cranial suture closure, tooth wear and incisor cementum layers. Lens nitrogen increased rapidly up to 12 months of age, but at much reduced rate thereafter. Total lens nitrogen was useful only in separating young-of-the-year from adults. The closure sequence for five cranial sutures accurately divided the total known-age sample of males into seven groups, and the adults into five groups. The tooth wear criteria divided the known-age sample into five relative age groups, but aging of individuals by this method was inaccurate. Histological sectioning of known-age teeth was the best method of observing layering in the cementum tissue. The technique of basing estimation of age on cementum ring counts, although subjective, was accurate for aging individuals through their fourth year but tended to underestimate the age of animals over 4 years old. However, suture closure or tooth wear can be used to identify males over 4 years old. In field studies, technical difficulties limit the utility of age estimation by cementum layers. Maximum root thickness of the lower canine was accurate in determining the sex of individuals from 5 months to ,at least 48 months of age.

  13. Modeling Bone Surface Morphology: A Fully Quantitative Method for Age-at-Death Estimation Using the Pubic Symphysis.

    PubMed

    Slice, Dennis E; Algee-Hewitt, Bridget F B

    2015-07-01

    The pubic symphysis is widely used in age estimation for the adult skeleton. Standard practice requires the visual comparison of surface morphology against criteria representing predefined phases and the estimation of case-specific age from an age range associated with the chosen phase. Known problems of method and observer error necessitate alternative tools to quantify age-related change in pubic morphology. This paper presents an objective, fully quantitative method for estimating age-at-death from the skeleton, which exploits a variance-based score of surface complexity computed from vertices obtained from a scanner sampling the pubic symphysis. For laser scans from 41 modern American male skeletons, this method produces results that are significantly associated with known age-at-death (RMSE = 17.15 years). Chronological age is predicted, therefore, equally well, if not, better, with this robust, objective, and fully quantitative method than with prevailing phase-aging systems. This method contributes to forensic casework by responding to medico-legal expectations for evidence standards. PMID:25929827

  14. Letter report: Population estimates by age, sex and race for 10-county study area. Hanford Environmental Dose Reconstruction Project

    SciTech Connect

    Pittenger, D.B.

    1992-02-01

    The Hanford Environmental Does Reconstruction (HEDR) Project was established to estimate radiation doses that people could have received from nuclear operations at the Hanford Site since 1944. To identify groups that may have received doses, population estimates containing age, race, and sex detail for ten counties in Washington and Oregon for the years 1940 to 1980 were prepared by the Demographics Laboratory under a subcontract with the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL). A data base of population information was developed from census reports and published and unpublished collections from the Washington State Office of Financial Management and Center for Population Research. Three estimation methods were then explored: the cohort-component model, cohort interpolation, and age-group interpolation. The estimates generated through cohort and age-group interpolation are considered adequate for initial use in the HEDR Project. Results are presented in two forms: (1) county populations by sex and single year of age and (2) county populations by sex and race for age groupings. These results are made available to the HEDR Project for further refinement into population estimates by county census divisions.

  15. Reliability of India-specific regression formula for age estimation of population in and around Bahadurgarh, Haryana (India)

    PubMed Central

    Tandon, Ankita; Agarwal, Vartika; Arora, Varun

    2015-01-01

    Objectives The study was conducted to check the reliability of India-specific regression formula for age estimation of population in and around Bahadurgarh, Haryana (India). Materials and methods The study was conducted using digital orthopantomograms (OPGs) of 464 subjects (253 males and 211 females). Chronologic age (CA) was derived from that mentioned on the OPG. Each tooth in the left mandibular segment was scored using Demirjian's scoring and age was calculated using the regression formulas derived by Acharya. The difference of the chronologic and estimated age was used to check the reliability of India-specific regression formula. Results The mean estimated age was found to be significantly higher as compared to CA for overall as well as both the genders independently (p < 0.001). Difference (in ±) between estimated and CA ranged from 0 to 4.2 years. Mean difference in age was 0.85 ± 0.73 years for males and 0.87 ± 0.76 years for females. Conclusion The published India-specific regression formula does not have reliability in the population of Bahadurgarh, Haryana and hence cannot be universally applied. PMID:26587381

  16. A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age-depth relationship of Dome Fuji ice core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, S.; Suzuki, K.; Kawamura, K.; Parrenin, F.; Higuchi, T.

    2015-06-01

    A technique for estimating the age-depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age-depth relationship is mainly determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process due to the horizontal stretching and vertical compression of ice layers. However, since neither the accumulation process nor the thinning process are fully understood, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated from age markers and δ18O data. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method, in which the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method is combined with the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning processes are computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood is obtained with the SMC method. Meanwhile, the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method with Metropolis iterations. The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age-depth relationship without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica.

  17. A sequential Bayesian approach for the estimation of the age-depth relationship of the Dome Fuji ice core

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Shin'ya; Suzuki, Kazue; Kawamura, Kenji; Parrenin, Frédéric; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

    2016-02-01

    A technique for estimating the age-depth relationship in an ice core and evaluating its uncertainty is presented. The age-depth relationship is determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process as a result of the deformation of ice layers. However, since neither the accumulation rate nor the thinning process is fully known, it is essential to incorporate observational information into a model that describes the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated by making use of age markers and δ18O data. The age markers provide reliable age information at several depths. The data of δ18O are used as a proxy of the temperature for estimating the accumulation rate. The estimation is achieved using the particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (PMCMC) method, which is a combination of the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method. In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning process are computed using the Metropolis method, in which the likelihood is obtained with the SMC method, and the posterior distribution for the age as a function of depth is obtained by collecting the samples generated by the SMC method with Metropolis iterations. The use of this PMCMC method enables us to estimate the age-depth relationship without assuming either linearity or Gaussianity. The performance of the proposed technique is demonstrated by applying it to ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica.

  18. The radiocarbon age of calcite dissolving at the sea floor: Estimates from pore water data

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, W.R.; McNichol, A.P.; McCorkle, D.C.

    2000-04-01

    The authors measured the radiocarbon content and stable isotopic composition of pore water and bottom water {Sigma}CO{sub 2}, sedimentary organic carbon, and CaCO{sub 3} at two sites on the Ceara Rise, one underlying bottom water that is supersaturated with respect to calcite (Site B), the other underlying under saturated bottom water (Site G). The results were combined with pore water O{sub 2}, {Sigma}CO{sub 2}, and Ca{sup 2+} profiles (Martin and Sayles, 1996) to estimate the radiocarbon content of the CaCO{sub 3} that is dissolving in the sediment mixed layer. At Site G, the CaCO{sub 3} that is dissolving in the upper 2 cm of the sediments is clearly younger (richer in {sup 14}C) than the bulk sedimentary CaCO{sub 3}, indicating that nonhomogeneous CaCO{sub 3} dissolution occurs there. The case for nonhomogeneous dissolution is much weaker at the site underlying supersaturated bottom water. The results indicate that nonhomogeneous dissolution occurs in sediments underlying under saturated bottom water, that the dissolution is rapid relative to the rate of homogenization of the CaCO{sub 3} in the mixed layer by bioturbation, and that the dissolution rate of CaCO{sub 3} decreases as it ages in the sediment mixed layer. The results support the hypothesis, based on solid phase analyses, that the preferential dissolution of young (i.e., radiocarbon-rich) CaCO{sub 3} leads to a pattern of increasing radiocarbon age of mixed-layer CaCO{sub 3} as the degree of under saturation of bottom water increases (Keir, 1984; Broecker et al., 1991).

  19. Redundant 230Th/ 234U/ 238U, 231Pa/ 235U and 14C dating of fossil corals for accurate radiocarbon age calibration

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chiu, Tzu-Chien; Fairbanks, Richard G.; Mortlock, Richard A.; Cao, Li; Fairbanks, Todd W.; Bloom, Arthur L.

    2006-09-01

    230Th/ 234U/ 238U dating of fossil corals by mass spectrometry is remarkably precise, but some samples exposed to freshwater over thousands of years may gain and/or lose uranium and/or thorium and consequently yield inaccurate ages. Although a δ 234U initial value equivalent to modern seawater and modern corals has been an effective quality control criterion, for samples exposed to freshwater but having δ 234U initial values indistinguishable from modern seawater and modern corals, there remains a need for additional age validation in the most demanding applications such as the 14C calibration (Fairbanks et al., 2005. Radiocarbon calibration curve spanning 0 to 50,000 years BP based on paired 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 14C dates on pristine corals. Quaternary Science Reviews 24(16-17), 1781-1796). In this paper we enhance screening criteria for fossil corals older than 30,000 years BP in the Fairbanks0805 radiocarbon calibration data set (Fairbanks et al., 2005) by measuring redundant 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 231Pa/ 235U dates via multi-collector magnetic sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-MS-ICPMS) using techniques described in Mortlock et al. (2005. 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 231Pa/ 235U ages from a single fossil coral fragment by multi-collector magnetic-sector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 69(3), 649-657.). In our present study, we regard paired 231Pa/ 235U and 230Th/ 234U/ 238U ages concordant when the 231Pa/ 235U age (±2 σ) overlaps with the associated 230Th/ 234U/ 238U age (±2 σ). Out of a representative set of 11 Fairbanks0805 (Fairbanks et al., 2005) radiocarbon calibration coral samples re-measured in this study, nine passed this rigorous check on the accuracy of their 230Th/ 234U/ 238U ages. The concordancy observed between 230Th/ 234U/ 238U and 231Pa/ 235U dates provides convincing evidence to support closed system behavior of these fossil corals and validation of their 230Th/ 234U/ 238U

  20. Otolith reading and multi-model inference for improved estimation of age and growth in the gilthead seabream Sparus aurata (L.)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mercier, Lény; Panfili, Jacques; Paillon, Christelle; N'diaye, Awa; Mouillot, David; Darnaude, Audrey M.

    2011-05-01

    Accurate knowledge of fish age and growth is crucial for species conservation and management of exploited marine stocks. In exploited species, age estimation based on otolith reading is routinely used for building growth curves that are used to implement fishery management models. However, the universal fit of the von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) on data from commercial landings can lead to uncertainty in growth parameter inference, preventing accurate comparison of growth-based history traits between fish populations. In the present paper, we used a comprehensive annual sample of wild gilthead seabream ( Sparus aurata L.) in the Gulf of Lions (France, NW Mediterranean) to test a methodology improving growth modelling for exploited fish populations. After validating the timing for otolith annual increment formation for all life stages, a comprehensive set of growth models (including VBGF) were fitted to the obtained age-length data, used as a whole or sub-divided between group 0 individuals and those coming from commercial landings (ages 1-6). Comparisons in growth model accuracy based on Akaike Information Criterion allowed assessment of the best model for each dataset and, when no model correctly fitted the data, a multi-model inference (MMI) based on model averaging was carried out. The results provided evidence that growth parameters inferred with VBGF must be used with high caution. Hence, VBGF turned to be among the less accurate for growth prediction irrespective of the dataset and its fit to the whole population, the juvenile or the adult datasets provided different growth parameters. The best models for growth prediction were the Tanaka model, for group 0 juveniles, and the MMI, for the older fish, confirming that growth differs substantially between juveniles and adults. All asymptotic models failed to correctly describe the growth of adult S. aurata, probably because of the poor representation of old individuals in the dataset. Multi

  1. Ages at a Crime Scene: Simultaneous Estimation of the Time since Deposition and Age of Its Originator.

    PubMed

    Agudelo, Juliana; Halámková, Lenka; Brunelle, Erica; Rodrigues, Roselyn; Huynh, Crystal; Halámek, Jan

    2016-06-21

    Blood is a major contributor of evidence in investigations involving violent crimes because of the unique composition of proteins and low molecular weight compounds present in the circulatory system, which often serve as biomarkers in clinical diagnostics. It was recently shown that biomarkers present in blood can also identify characteristics of the originator, such as ethnicity and biological sex. A biocatalytic assay for on-site forensic investigations was developed to simultaneously identify the age range of the blood sample originator and the time since deposition (TSD) of the blood spot. For these two characteristics to be identified, the levels of alkaline phosphatase (ALP), a marker commonly used in clinical diagnostics corresponding to old and young originators, were monitored after deposition for up to 48 h to mimic a crime scene setting. ALP was chosen as the biomarker due to its age-dependent nature. The biocatalytic assay was used to determine the age range of the originator using human serum samples. By means of statistical tools for evaluation and the physiological levels of ALP in healthy people, the applicability of this assay in forensic science was shown for the simultaneous determination of the age of the originator and the TSD of the blood spot. The stability of ALP in serum allows for the differentiation between old and young originators up to 2 days after the sample was left under mimicked crime scene conditions. PMID:27212711

  2. A multiple-approach radiometric age estimate for the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions, New Zealand, with implications for the MIS 4/3 boundary

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wilson, C.J.N.; Rhoades, D.A.; Lanphere, M.A.; Calvert, A.T.; Houghton, B.F.; Weaver, S.D.; Cole, J.W.

    2007-01-01

    Pyroclastic fall deposits of the paired Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruptions from the Taupo Volcanic Zone (New Zealand) combine to form a widespread isochronous horizon over much of northern New Zealand and the southwest Pacific. This horizon is important for correlating climatic and environmental changes during the Last Glacial period, but has been the subject of numerous disparate age estimates between 35.1??2.8 and 71??6 ka (all errors are 1 s.d.), obtained by a variety of techniques. A potassium-argon (K-Ar) age of 64??4 ka was previously determined on bracketing lavas at Mayor Island volcano, offshore from the Taupo Volcanic Zone. We present a new, more-precise 40Ar/39Ar age determination on a lava flow on Mayor Island, that shortly post-dates the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits, of 58.5??1.1 ka. This value, coupled with existing ages from underlying lavas, yield a new estimate for the age of the combined eruptions of 61.0??1.4 ka, which is consistent with U-Th disequilibrium model-age data for zircons from the Rotoiti deposits. Direct 40Ar/39Ar age determinations of plagioclase and biotite from the Rotoiti and Earthquake Flat eruption products yield variable values between 49.6??2.8 and 125.3??10.0 ka, with the scatter attributed to low radiogenic Ar yields, and/or alteration, and/or inheritance of xenocrystic material with inherited Ar. Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat fall deposits occur in New Zealand in association with palynological indicators of mild climate, attributed to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3 and thus used to suggest an age that is post-59 ka. The natures of the criteria used to define the MIS 4/3 boundary in the Northern and Southern hemispheres, however, imply that the new 61 ka age for the Rotoiti/Earthquake Flat eruption deposits will provide the inverse, namely, a more accurate isochronous marker for correlating diverse changes across the MIS 4/3 boundary in the southwest Pacific. ?? 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. The use of otolith microstructure to estimate age in adult Atlantic cod Gadus morhua.

    PubMed

    Hüssy, K; Hinrichsen, H-H; Fey, D P; Walther, Y; Velasco, A

    2010-05-01

    Transverse sections of otoliths from Atlantic cod Gadus morhua from the Baltic Sea revealed narrow growth increments. The widths of these increments corresponded to daily increments from fish with known otolith growth rates and were therefore assumed to be daily increments. They exhibited a distinct pattern with increasing distance from the primary primordium. A series of zones with clearly distinguishable increments, first with increasing then with decreasing widths in a dome-shaped pattern, were separated by zones where no regular increment structure was visible. Increment width seemed to be tightly coupled to the annual cycle in environmental temperature at a depth of 30-60 m, where G. morhua predominantly reside. Between 135 and 200 increments occurred within the different zones, with a non-significant trend towards lower increment numbers and widths with distance from the primary primordium of the otolith. Increment formation apparently ceased at temperatures < 5-6 degrees C, but growth during the cold months corresponded closely with estimated growth rates. The increment patterns seemed to reflect annual cycles in environmental temperature, and the count of the increment cycles may thus be a promising tool for the determination of the true age of Baltic G. morhua. PMID:20557621

  4. Diagnostic and Prognostic Tools for Residual Life Estimation in Aging Nuclear Power Plant Components

    SciTech Connect

    Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Bond, Leonard J.; Griffin, Jeffrey W.; Henager, Charles H.; Dixit, Mukul

    2011-06-23

    A central issue in life extension for the current fleet of light water nuclear power reactors (LWR) is the early detection and monitoring of significant materials degradation. To meet this need, nondestructive methods that are suitable for continuous monitoring over extended time periods (months to years) are needed. A related issue is the ability to estimate remaining useful life (RUL) of components and systems based on condition assessment or degradation information. Monitoring for early detection of materials degradation requires novel sensors and enhanced data integration techniques. A range of acoustic and electromagnetic measurement methods may be suitable, including acoustic microscopy, eddy current and magnetic Barkhausen emission. Prognostic methods that predict rate of degradation and remaining life based on phenomena that can be described by linear elastic fracture mechanics have been reported by several researchers. However, the challenge of predicting remaining life starting from earlier phases of degradation is largely unsolved. This paper discusses an assessment of selected diagnostic techniques, and the application of Bayesian prognostic algorithms to detection of early degradation and rate of degradation/life prediction. Such measurement and modeling methods are expected to form the basis for a new range of advanced diagnostic and prognostic approaches for assessing and monitoring life extension of ageing light water reactors.

  5. A Comparison of the Accuracy of Four Age Estimation Methods Based on Panoramic Radiography of Developing Teeth

    PubMed Central

    Javadinejad, Shahrzad; Sekhavati, Hajar; Ghafari, Roshanak

    2015-01-01

    Background and aims. Tooth development is widely used in determining age and state of maturity. Dental age is of high importance in forensic and pediatric dentistry and also orthodontic treatment planning .The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of four radiographic age estimation methods. Materials and methods. Orthopantomographic images of 537 healthy children (age: 3.9-14.5 years old) were evaluated. Dental age of the subjects was determined through Demirjian’s, Willem’s, Cameriere’s, and Smith’s methods. Differences and correlations between chronological and dental ages were assessed by paired t-tests and Pearson’s correlation analysis, respectively. Results. The mean chronological age of the subjects was 8.93 ± 2.04 years. Overestimations of age were observed following the use of Demirjian’s method (0.87 ± 1.00 years), Willem’s method (0.36 ± 0.87 years), and Smith’s method (0.06 ± 0.63 years). However, Cameriere’s method underestimated age by 0.19 ± 0.86 years. While paired t-tests revealed significant differences between the mean chronological age and ages determined by Demirjian’s, Willem’s, and Cameriere’s methods (P < 0.001), such a significant difference was absent between chronological age and dental age based on Smith’s method (P = 0.079). Pearson’s correlation analysis suggested linear correlations between chronological age and dental age determined by all four methods. Conclusion. Our findings indicated Smith’s method to have the highest accuracy among the four assessed methods. How-ever, all four methods can be used with acceptable accuracy. PMID:26236431

  6. Application of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) to estimate the groundwater age at a headwater wetland in Ichikawa City, Chiba Prefecture, Japan

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Han, Zhiwei; Tang, Changyuan; Piao, Jingqiu; Li, Xing; Cao, Yingjie; Matsumaru, Touma; Zhang, Chipeng

    2014-09-01

    To delineate the groundwater flow system in a basin, the groundwater age was estimated by analyzing chlorofluorocarbons (CFC-11, CFC-12 and CFC-113) in a typical headwater wetland in Ichikawa, Japan. Feasibility of groundwater dating by CFCs was assessed comprehensively based on the concentrations of NO3 -, SO4 2-, Fe2+ and dissolved CH4 in the groundwater, because the CFCs would be degraded under the reduction condition available in a wetland. It was found that the CFC-11 apparent age was much older than that estimated by other CFC species. It showed that CFC-12 and CFC-113 were suitable tracers for groundwater dating because of their stability in the wetland environment. Furthermore, the mixture of groundwater with different age was discussed by CFC-12 and CFC-113 based on the binary mixing model and piston-flow model. As a result, the apparent age of groundwater in the study area is in the range of 38-48 years.

  7. Age and sex suicide rates in the Eastern Mediterranean Region based on global burden of disease estimates for 2000.

    PubMed

    Rezaeian, M

    2007-01-01

    Suicide was estimated to be the 25th leading cause of death in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region in the year 2000. Using data from the WHO global burden of disease project, estimated rates of suicidal deaths were plotted for different sex and age groups. Overall rates of suicide were higher in females than males in age groups 5-14 and 15-29 years. The peak age for suicides among females was 15-29 years (8.6 per 100,000) and for males 60+ years (100,000). As a proportion of all deaths due to injury, suicides were substantially higher in females than males. Females in high-income countries had the lowest rates of suicide in all age groups and males in high-income countries had a lower rate than males in low- and middle-income countries. PMID:17955778

  8. Age estimation using the radiographic visibility of the periodontal ligament in lower third molars in a Portuguese population

    PubMed Central

    Sequeira, Catarina-Dourado; Teixeira, Alexandra; Afonso, Américo; Pérez-Mongiovi, Daniel

    2014-01-01

    Objectives: The mineralization of third molars has been used repeatedly as a method of forensic age estimation. However, this procedure is of little use beyond age 18, especially to determinate if an individual is older than 21 years of age; thus, the development of new approaches is essential. The visibility of the periodontal ligament has been suggested for this purpose. The aim of this work was to determine the usefulness of this methodology in a Portuguese population. Study Design: Periodontal ligament visibility was assessed in the lower third molars, using a sample of 487 orthopantomograms, 228 of which belonging to females and 259 to males, from a Portuguese population aged 17 to 31 years. A classification of four stages based on the visual phenomenon of disappearance of the periodontal ligament of fully mineralized third molars was used. For each stage, median, variance, minimal and maximal age were assessed. Results: The relationship between age and stage of periodontal ligament had a statistical significance for both sexes. In this population, stage 3 can be used to state that a male person is over 21 years-old; for females, another marker should be used. Conclusions: This technique can be useful for determining age over 21, particularly in males. Differences between studies are evident, suggesting that specific population standards should be used when applying this technique. Key words:Forensic sciences, forensic odontology, age estimation, third molar, periodontal ligament. PMID:25674324

  9. Age estimation from pulp/tooth area ratio in maxillary incisors among Egyptians using dental radiographic images.

    PubMed

    Zaher, Jaklin Fekri; Fawzy, Irene Atef; Habib, Sahar Refaat; Ali, Magdy Mohamed

    2011-02-01

    Age estimation from dental radiographs is a non-destructive, simple method to obtain information. The aim of this study was to determine the reliability of age estimation from Egyptians' incisors radiographs. 144 periapical radiographs of maxillary (central & lateral) incisors (both sexes) aged 12-60 were used. Digital camera was used to image the radiographs. Images were computed and pulp/tooth area ratios were determined by AutoCAD Program. Data were subjected to correlation and regression analysis which showed statistically significant correlation (r = 0.23 &P = 0.006 for maxillary central incisors and r = -0.2 &P = 0.05 for maxillary lateral incisors) between age and pulp tooth area ratio. Linear regression equations were determined separately for both central and lateral incisors along with the corresponding Standard Error of Estimate, which ranged from 1.2 to 5.08 years. Consequently, it was concluded that pulp/tooth area ratios of incisors are reliable for estimation of age among Egyptians in forensic work. PMID:21315299

  10. Pulp/tooth ratio of mandibular first and second molars on panoramic radiographs: An aid for forensic age estimation

    PubMed Central

    Shah, Palak H.; Venkatesh, Rashmi

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To determine and compare the accuracy of pulp/tooth ratio method in mandibular first and second molar teeth in forensic age estimation. Materials and Methods: A total 300 panoramic radiographs of the Gujarati population (187 males and 113 females) were studied. The measurements of Pulp Chamber Height (PCH) and Crown Root Trunk Height (CRTH) were performed on the mandibular first and second molar teeth. The acquired data was subjected to correlation and regression. Results: The pulp chamber crown root trunk height ratios (PCTHR) of both the first (r = −0.609) and second molars (r = −0.422) were significantly correlated with the age of the individual. Individual regression formulae were derived for both the teeth which were then used separately to calculate the age. The standard errors estimate (SEE) for the first and second molars were 8.84 years and 10.11 years, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference between chronological and calculated age by both the teeth (P = 1.000). Conclusion: The mandibular first and second molar is a potential tool for age estimation in forensic dentistry. The pulp/tooth ratio of both the teeth is a useful method for forensic age prediction with reasonable accuracy in the Gujarati population.

  11. Polydimethylsiloxane-air partition ratios for semi-volatile organic compounds by GC-based measurement and COSMO-RS estimation: Rapid measurements and accurate modelling.

    PubMed

    Okeme, Joseph O; Parnis, J Mark; Poole, Justen; Diamond, Miriam L; Jantunen, Liisa M

    2016-08-01

    Polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) shows promise for use as a passive air sampler (PAS) for semi-volatile organic compounds (SVOCs). To use PDMS as a PAS, knowledge of its chemical-specific partitioning behaviour and time to equilibrium is needed. Here we report on the effectiveness of two approaches for estimating the partitioning properties of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS), values of PDMS-to-air partition ratios or coefficients (KPDMS-Air), and time to equilibrium of a range of SVOCs. Measured values of KPDMS-Air, Exp' at 25 °C obtained using the gas chromatography retention method (GC-RT) were compared with estimates from a poly-parameter free energy relationship (pp-FLER) and a COSMO-RS oligomer-based model. Target SVOCs included novel flame retardants (NFRs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), organophosphate flame retardants (OPFRs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and organochlorine pesticides (OCPs). Significant positive relationships were found between log KPDMS-Air, Exp' and estimates made using the pp-FLER model (log KPDMS-Air, pp-LFER) and the COSMOtherm program (log KPDMS-Air, COSMOtherm). The discrepancy and bias between measured and predicted values were much higher for COSMO-RS than the pp-LFER model, indicating the anticipated better performance of the pp-LFER model than COSMO-RS. Calculations made using measured KPDMS-Air, Exp' values show that a PDMS PAS of 0.1 cm thickness will reach 25% of its equilibrium capacity in ∼1 day for alpha-hexachlorocyclohexane (α-HCH) to ∼ 500 years for tris (4-tert-butylphenyl) phosphate (TTBPP), which brackets the volatility range of all compounds tested. The results presented show the utility of GC-RT method for rapid and precise measurements of KPDMS-Air. PMID:27179237

  12. Evolution on a volcanic conveyor belt: using phylogeographic reconstructions and K-Ar-based ages of the Hawaiian Islands to estimate molecular evolutionary rates.

    PubMed

    Fleischer, R C; McIntosh, C E; Tarr, C L

    1998-04-01

    The Hawaiian Islands form as the Pacific Plate moves over a 'hot spot' in the earth's mantle where magma extrudes through the crust to build huge shield volcanos. The islands subside and erode as the plate carries them to the north-west, eventually to become coral atolls and seamounts. Thus islands are ordered linearly by age, with the oldest islands in the north-west (e.g. Kauai at 5.1 Ma) and the youngest in the south-east (e.g. Hawaii at 0.43 Ma). K-Ar estimates of the date of an island's formation provide a maximum age for the taxa inhabiting the island. These ages can be used to calibrate rates of molecular change under the following assumptions: (i) K-Ar dates are accurate; (ii) tree topologies show that derivation of taxa parallels the timing of island formation; (iii) populations do not colonize long after island emergence; (iv) the coalescent point for sister taxa does not greatly predate the formation of the colonized younger island; (v) saturation effects and (vi) among-lineage rate variation are minimal or correctable; and (vii) unbiased standard errors of distances and regressions can be estimated from multiple pairwise comparisons. We use the approach to obtain overall corrected rate calibrations for: (i) part of the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene in Hawaiian drepanidines (0.016 sequence divergence/Myr); (ii) the Yp1 gene in Hawaiian Drosophila (0.019/Myr Kambysellis et al. 1995); and (iii) parts of the mitochondrial 12S and 16S rRNA and tRNAval in Laupala crickets (0.024-0.102/Myr, Shaw 1996). We discuss the reliability of the estimates given the assumptions (i-vii) above and contrast the results with previous calibrations of Adh in Hawaiian Drosophila and chloroplast DNA in lobeliods. PMID:9628004

  13. Application of isotopes to estimate water ages in variable time scales in surface and groundwaters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kralik, Martin

    2014-05-01

    Water-Isotopes (2H, 3H, 18O) are ideal tracers not only to determine the origin of waters in precipitation, surface water (river + lakes) as well as in groundwater close to the surface and in deep groundwater but also the mean residence time (MRT) in many applied projects as drinking water supply, hydroelectric power plants, road tunnels etc. . Their application has a long history, but must be always evaluated by a feasible hydrogeological concept and/or other isotope and geochemical tracers. In Alpine areas the retention of precipitation in form of snow and ice in the winter half year is indicated by the lowest 18O-values. The snow melt of the highest part of the recharge area is marked by the lowest 18O-values in the river water, but may not coincide with the maximum flow. Time-series of precipitation station in the mountain and on river station indicate the arrival of the peak snow-melt water in the river and in Low-land areas 4-7 month later. Tritium series indicate that MRTs of several Austrian rivers are in the range of 4 - 6 years. The seasonal input variation of in 18O in precipitation and/or river waters can be used to calculate by lumped parameter models MRT of groundwater at a certain well and compare it with lysimeter measurements and transient model simulations. The MRT of the dispersion model is in good agreement with the estimated time calculated by the numerical transport model and the vertical lysimeter measurements. The MRT of spring water was studied by several methods (3H/3He, SF6 and 85Kr) and a long time series of 3H-measurements. The gas tracers are in good agreement in the range of 6-10 year whereas the 3H-series model (dispersion model) indicate ages in the range of 18-23 years. The hydrogeological concept indicate that the precipitation infiltrates in a mountainous karst area, but the transfer into the porous aquifer in the Vienna Basin occurs either through rivers draining away in the basin or through the lateral transport from the karst

  14. Accurate age classification of 6 and 12 month-old infants based on resting-state functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging data

    PubMed Central

    Pruett, John R.; Kandala, Sridhar; Hoertel, Sarah; Snyder, Abraham Z.; Elison, Jed T.; Nishino, Tomoyuki; Feczko, Eric; Dosenbach, Nico U.F.; Nardos, Binyam; Power, Jonathan D.; Adeyemo, Babatunde; Botteron, Kelly N.; McKinstry, Robert C.; Evans, Alan C.; Hazlett, Heather C.; Dager, Stephen R.; Paterson, Sarah; Schultz, Robert T.; Collins, D. Louis; Fonov, Vladimir S.; Styner, Martin; Gerig, Guido; Das, Samir; Kostopoulos, Penelope; Constantino, John N.; Estes, Annette M.; Petersen, Steven E.; Schlaggar, Bradley L.; Piven, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Human large-scale functional brain networks are hypothesized to undergo significant changes over development. Little is known about these functional architectural changes, particularly during the second half of the first year of life. We used multivariate pattern classification of resting-state functional connectivity magnetic resonance imaging (fcMRI) data obtained in an on-going, multi-site, longitudinal study of brain and behavioral development to explore whether fcMRI data contained information sufficient to classify infant age. Analyses carefully account for the effects of fcMRI motion artifact. Support vector machines (SVMs) classified 6 versus 12 month-old infants (128 datasets) above chance based on fcMRI data alone. Results demonstrate significant changes in measures of brain functional organization that coincide with a special period of dramatic change in infant motor, cognitive, and social development. Explorations of the most different correlations used for SVM lead to two different interpretations about functional connections that support 6 versus 12-month age categorization. PMID:25704288

  15. Estimation of Genetic Parameters for Real-time Ultrasound Measurements for Hanwoo Cows at Different Ages and Pregnancy Status

    PubMed Central

    Lee, J. H.; Lee, Y. M.; Oh, S.-H.; Son, H. J.; Jeong, D. J.; Whitley, Niki; Kim, J. J.

    2014-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate genetic parameters of ultrasound measurements for longissimus dorsi muscle area (LMA), backfat thickness (BFT), and marbling score (MS) in Hanwoo cows (N = 3,062) at the ages between 18 and 42 months. Data were collected from 100 Hanwoo breeding farms in Gyeongbuk province, Korea, in 2007 and 2008. The cows were classified into four different age groups, i.e. 18 to 22 months (the first pregnancy period), 23 to 27 (the first parturition), 28 to 32 (the second pregnancy), and 33 to 42 (the second parturition), respectively. For each age group, a multi-trait animal model was used to estimate variance components and heritabilities of the three traits. The averages of LMA, BFT, and MS measurements across the cows of all age groups were 50.1 cm2, 4.62 mm, and 3.04, respectively and heritability estimates were 0.09, 0.10, and 0.08 for the respective traits. However, when the data were analyzed in different age groups, heritability estimates of LMA and BFT were 0.24 and 0.47, respectively, for the cows of 18 to 22 months of age, and 0.21 for MS in the 28 to 32 months old cows. When the cows of all age groups were used, the estimates of genetic (phenotypic) correlations were 0.43 (0.35), −0.06 (0.34) and 0.21 (0.32) between LMA and BFT, LMA and MS, and BFT and MS, respectively. However, in the cow age group between 28 and 32 (18 and 22) months, the estimates of genetic (phenotypic) correlations were 0.05 (0.29), −0.15 (0.24) and 0.38 (0.24), for the respective pairs of traits. These results suggest that genetic, environmental, and phenotypic variations differ depending on cow age, such that care must be taken when ultrasound measurements are applied to selection of cows for meat quality. PMID:25049938

  16. Constructing an index of physical fitness age for Japanese elderly based on 7-year longitudinal data: sex differences in estimated physical fitness age.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Misaka; Mizuta, Chinatsu; Yamada, Yosuke; Okayama, Yasuko; Nakamura, Eitaro

    2012-02-01

    A standardized method for assessing the physical fitness of elderly adults has not yet been established. In this study, we developed an index of physical fitness age (fitness age score, FAS) for older Japanese adults and investigated sex differences based on the estimated FAS. Healthy elderly adults (52 men, 70 women) who underwent physical fitness tests once yearly for 7 years between 2002 and 2008 were included in this study. The age of the participants at the beginning of this study ranged from 60.0 to 83.0 years. The physical fitness tests consisted of 13 items to measure balance, agility, flexibility, muscle strength, and endurance. Three criteria were used to evaluate fitness markers of aging: (1) significant cross-sectional correlation with age; (2) significant longitudinal change with age consistent with the cross-sectional correlation; and (3) significant stability of individual differences. We developed an equation to assess individual FAS values using the first principal component derived from principal component analysis. Five candidate fitness markers of aging (10-m walking time, functional reach, one leg stand with eyes open, vertical jump and grip strength) were selected from the 13 physical fitness tests. Individual FAS was predicted from these five fitness markers using a principal component model. Individual FAS showed high longitudinal stability for age-related changes. This investigation of the longitudinal changes of individual FAS revealed that women had relatively lower physical fitness compared with men, but their rate of physical fitness aging was slower than that of men. PMID:21424789

  17. Estimation of fracture toughness of cast stainless steels during thermal aging in LWR systems-revision 1

    SciTech Connect

    Chopra, O.K

    1994-08-01

    This report presents a revision of the procedure and correlations presented earlier in NUREG/CR-4513, ANL-90/42 (June 1991) for predicting the change in mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components due to thermal aging during service in light water reactors at 280-330{degrees}C (535-625{degrees}F). The correlations presented in this report are based on an expanded data base and have been optimized with mechanical-property data on cast stainless steels aged up to {approx}58,000 h at 290-350{degrees}C (554-633{degrees}F). The fracture toughness J-R curve, tensile stress, and Charpy-impact energy of aged cast stainless steels are estimated from known material information. Mechanical properties of a specific cast stainless steel are estimated from the extent and kinetics of thermal embrittlement. Embrittlement of cast stainless steels is characterized in terms of room-temperature Charpy-impact energy. Charpy-impact energy as a function of time and temperature of reactor service is estimated from the kinetics of thermal embrittlement, which are also determined from the chemical composition. The initial impact energy of the unaged steel is required for these estimations. Initial tensile flow stress is needed for estimating the flow stress of the aged material. The fracture toughness J-R curve for the material is then obtained by correlating room-temperature Charpy-impact energy with fracture toughness parameters. The values of J{sub IC} are determined from the estimated J-R curve and flow stress. A common {open_quotes}predicted lower-bound{close_quotes} J-R curve for cast stainless steels of unknown chemical composition is also defined for a given grade of steel, range of ferrite content, and temperature. Examples of estimating mechanical properties of cast stainless steel components during reactor service are presented.

  18. Estimating migratory game-bird productivity by integrating age ratio and banding data

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Zimmerman, G.S.; Link, W.A.; Conroy, M.J.; Sauer, J.R.; Richkus, K.D.; Boomer, G. Scott

    2010-01-01

    Implications: Several national and international management strategies for migratory game birds in North America rely on measures of productivity from harvest survey parts collections, without a justification of the estimator or providing estimates of precision. We derive an estimator of productivity with realistic measures of uncertainty that can be directly incorporated into management plans or ecological studies across large spatial scales.

  19. Is Greulich and Pyle standards of skeletal maturation applicable for age estimation in South Indian Andhra children?

    PubMed Central

    Mohammed, Rezwana Begum; Rao, Dola Srinivasa; Goud, Alampur Srinivas; Sailaja, S.; Thetay, Anshuj Ajay Rao; Gopalakrishnan, Meera

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: Now-a-day age determination has gained importance for various forensic and legal reasons. Skeletal age (SA) of a test population can be estimated by comparing with established standards of Greulich and Pyle (G-P). As this atlas has been prepared using data from upper-class children born between 1917 and 1942 in the USA and the applicability of these standards to contemporary populations has yet to be tested on Andhra children living in India. Hence, this study was aimed to assess the reliability of bone age calculated by G-P atlas in estimation of age in selected population. Materials and Methods: A total of 660 children (330 girls, 330 boys) between ages 9 and 20 years were randomly selected from outpatient Department of Oral Medicine in GITAM Dental College, Andhra Pradesh. Digital hand-wrist radiographs were obtained and assessed for SA using G-P atlas and the difference between estimated SA and chronological age (CA) were compared with paired t-test and Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results: G-P method underestimated the SA by 0.23 ± 1.53 years for boys and overestimated SA by 0.02 ± 2 years in girls and mild underestimation was noted in the total sample of about 0.1 ± 1.78 years. Spearman rank test showed significant correlation between SA and CA (r = 0.86; P < 0.001). Conclusion: This study concluded that G-P standards were reliable in assessing age in South Indian Andhra children of age 9–20 years with unknown CA. PMID:26229357

  20. Risk Factors for Learning-Related Behavior Problems at 24 Months of Age: Population-Based Estimates

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Morgan, Paul L.; Farkas, George; Hillemeier, Marianne M.; Maczuga, Steven

    2009-01-01

    We used a large sample of singleton children to estimate the effects of socioeconomic status (SES), race/ethnicity, gender, additional socio-demographics, gestational and birth factors, and parenting on children's risk for learning-related behavior problems at 24 months of age. We investigated to what extent these factors increased a child's risk…

  1. Age estimation by measuring open apices of lower erupted teeth in 12-16 years olds by radiographic evaluation.

    PubMed

    Jatti, Deepa; Kantaraj, Yashodadevi; Nagaraju, Rakesh; Janardhan, Sujatha; Nataraj, Santana

    2013-07-01

    The purpose of this study was to estimate chronological age from panoramic radiographs by measuring open apices of seven right or left mandibular teeth in children of South Indian origin. A total of 101 male and female patients aged between 12 and 16 years were selected. The panoramic radiographs of the patient were indirectly digitised. The variables N0, x3, x4, x5, x6, x7 and s were measured using a computer-aided drafting program. Statistical analysis was performed to derive a regression equation for estimation of age. Two variables x3 and x7 contributed significantly to the fit, yielding the following linear regression formula: Age = 16.025-9.445 (x7) + 1.620 (x3). Statistical analysis indicated that the regression equation explained 97.5% of total variance (R(2) = 0.975). The median of the residuals was -0.0348 years with an interquartile range (IQR) of 0.2520 years. The derived regression equations from these variables can serve as an invaluable tool in estimating the age of children between 12 and 16 years of South Indian origin. PMID:23756511

  2. A spatio-temporal latent atlas for semi-supervised learning of fetal brain segmentations and morphological age estimation.

    PubMed

    Dittrich, Eva; Riklin Raviv, Tammy; Kasprian, Gregor; Donner, René; Brugger, Peter C; Prayer, Daniela; Langs, Georg

    2014-01-01

    Prenatal neuroimaging requires reference models that reflect the normal spectrum of fetal brain development, and summarize observations from a representative sample of individuals. Collecting a sufficiently large data set of manually annotated data to construct a comprehensive in vivo atlas of rapidly developing structures is challenging but necessary for large population studies and clinical application. We propose a method for the semi-supervised learning of a spatio-temporal latent atlas of fetal brain development, and corresponding segmentations of emerging cerebral structures, such as the ventricles or cortex. The atlas is based on the annotation of a few examples, and a large number of imaging data without annotation. It models the morphological and developmental variability across the population. Furthermore, it serves as basis for the estimation of a structures' morphological age, and its deviation from the nominal gestational age during the assessment of pathologies. Experimental results covering the gestational period of 20-30 gestational weeks demonstrate segmentation accuracy achievable with minimal annotation, and precision of morphological age estimation. Age estimation results on fetuses suffering from lissencephaly demonstrate that they detect significant differences in the age offset compared to a control group. PMID:24080527

  3. Estimation of age-specific per capita home-produced food intake among populations that garden, farm, or raise animals.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Linda; Moya, Jacqueline

    2012-01-01

    Intake of home-produced foods may be a concern in areas where chemical contamination exists. Estimating exposure to contaminants in home-produced foods requires knowledge of the amount of these foods consumed. The US Environmental Protection Agency's (US EPA's) Exposure Factors Handbook provides data on consumption of home-produced foods based on the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA's) 1987-1988 Nationwide Food Consumption Survey (NFCS), the most recent national food survey that contains the information necessary to estimate home-produced consumption. These data represent "consumer-only" intake rate distributions for various age and demographic categories. "Consumers-only" information is also provided for households who garden, farm, and raise animals for all age groups combined. However, these "consumer-only" values may not always be appropriate when assessing chronic exposures. Furthermore, data for all ages combined may not be useful for estimating exposure among age groups that may be of particular concern. This paper provides age-specific "per capita" intake rate distributions of home-produced foods specifically for the populations that garden, farm, and raise animals, using data from EPA's Exposure Factors Handbook. PMID:21522189

  4. An HST/WFPC2 survey of bright young clusters in M 31. IV. Age and mass estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perina, S.; Cohen, J. G.; Barmby, P.; Beasley, M. A.; Bellazzini, M.; Brodie, J. P.; Federici, L.; Fusi Pecci, F.; Galleti, S.; Hodge, P. W.; Huchra, J. P.; Kissler-Patig, M.; Puzia, T. H.; Strader, J.

    2010-02-01

    Aims: We present the main results of an imaging survey of possible young massive clusters (YMC) in M 31 performed with the Wide Field and Planetary Camera 2 (WFPC2) on the Hubble Space Telescope (HST), with the aim of estimating their age and their mass. We obtained shallow (to B ˜ 25) photometry of individual stars in 19 clusters (of the 20 targets of the survey). We present the images and color magnitude diagrams (CMDs) of all of our targets. Methods: Point spread function fitting photometry of individual stars was obtained for all the WFPC2 images of the target clusters, and the completeness of the final samples was estimated using extensive sets of artificial stars experiments. The reddening, age, and metallicity of the clusters were estimated by comparing the observed CMDs and luminosity functions (LFs) with theoretical models. Stellar masses were estimated by comparison with theoretical models in the log(Age) vs. absolute integrated magnitude plane, using ages estimated from our CMDs and integrated J, H, K magnitudes from 2MASS-6X. Results: Nineteen of the twenty surveyed candidates were confirmed to be real star clusters, while one turned out to be a bright star. Three of the clusters were found not to be good YMC candidates from newly available integrated spectroscopy and were in fact found to be old from their CMD. Of the remaining sixteen clusters, fourteen have ages between 25 Myr and 280 Myr, two have older ages than 500 Myr (lower limits). By including ten other YMC with HST photometry from the literature, we assembled a sample of 25 clusters younger than 1 Gyr, with mass ranging from 0.6× 10^4 Msun to 6× 10^4 Msun, with an average of ˜3× 10^4 Msun. Our estimates of ages and masses well agree with recent independent studies based on integrated spectra. Conclusions: The clusters considered here are confirmed to have masses significantly higher than Galactic open clusters (OC) in the same age range. Our analysis indicates that YMCs are relatively

  5. Results from the HARPS-N 2014 Campaign to Estimate Accurately the Densities of Planets Smaller than 2.5 Earth Radii

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Charbonneau, David; Harps-N Collaboration

    2015-01-01

    Although the NASA Kepler Mission has determined the physical sizes of hundreds of small planets, and we have in many cases characterized the star in detail, we know virtually nothing about the planetary masses: There are only 7 planets smaller than 2.5 Earth radii for which there exist published mass estimates with a precision better than 20 percent, the bare minimum value required to begin to distinguish between different models of composition.HARPS-N is an ultra-stable fiber-fed high-resolution spectrograph optimized for the measurement of very precise radial velocities. We have 80 nights of guaranteed time per year, of which half are dedicated to the study of small Kepler planets.In preparation for the 2014 season, we compared all available Kepler Objects of Interest to identify the ones for which our 40 nights could be used most profitably. We analyzed the Kepler light curves to constrain the stellar rotation periods, the lifetimes of active regions on the stellar surface, and the noise that would result in our radial velocities. We assumed various mass-radius relations to estimate the observing time required to achieve a mass measurement with a precision of 15%, giving preference to stars that had been well characterized through asteroseismology. We began by monitoring our long list of targets. Based on preliminary results we then selected our final short list, gathering typically 70 observations per target during summer 2014.These resulting mass measurements will have a signifcant impact on our understanding of these so-called super-Earths and small Neptunes. They would form a core dataset with which the international astronomical community can meaningfully seek to understand these objects and their formation in a quantitative fashion.HARPS-N was funded by the Swiss Space Office, the Harvard Origin of Life Initiative, the Scottish Universities Physics Alliance, the University of Geneva, the Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory, the Italian National

  6. Glacial retreat between the Late-Glacial and Early Holocene sequences in the Southern French Alps : definition of an accurate pattern by new Cosmic Ray Exposure ages.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cossart, Etienne; Fort, Monique; Bourlès, Didier; Braucher, Régis; Carcaillet, Julien; Perrier, Romain; Siame, Lionel; Gribenski, Natacha

    2010-05-01

    The Southern French Alps, characterized by many climatic influences (oceanic, continental and mediterranean), remain a scientific problem for palaeo-environmental studies. Indeed, the lack of chronological benchmarks hitherto hampered the definition of sequences of glacier variations since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), even if a scenario was based upon an extensive fieldwork realized in the Ubaye valley. This scenario was then considered as a regional model by many geomorphologists, but this valley is not necessarily representative of the entire region. Firstly, this valley is the driest area within the Southern French Alps due the sheltering effect of relief against humid fluxes. Secondly, topography (altitudes, slopes and shapes) of the upper part of watersheds are not particularly prone to snow accumulation into the cirques. The established scenario is as follows. Glaciers shrank and decayed between the LGM and the Late-Glacial periods and glaciers were restricted in cirques areas during the Late-Glacial and Holocene glaciations. We try to discuss this model thanks to geomorphic investigations and new chronological benchmarks acquired in Briançonnais area, in the upper part of Durance watershed. The upper part of the Durance watershed was chosen because it corresponds to the accumulation zone of the main glacier of the Southern French Alps during the LGM. Thanks to extensive fieldwork and geomorphic mapping of remnants of past glaciations, and thanks to new chronological data (about 35 cosmic ray exposure -CRE- ages, acquired in 2004 and 2009) we propose here the first absolute scenario established in the very upper part of the catchment. To assess CRE ages, we sampled glacially-polished surfaces, along both longitudinal and transverse valley cross-sections, in order to assess both the retreat of the front and the thinning rate of the glacial tongue. We also paid attention to knobs located at the outlet of glacial cirques, and some morainic ridges. The

  7. Accurate Evaluation of Quantum Integrals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galant, David C.; Goorvitch, D.

    1994-01-01

    Combining an appropriate finite difference method with Richardson's extrapolation results in a simple, highly accurate numerical method for solving a Schr\\"{o}dinger's equation. Important results are that error estimates are provided, and that one can extrapolate expectation values rather than the wavefunctions to obtain highly accurate expectation values. We discuss the eigenvalues, the error growth in repeated Richardson's extrapolation, and show that the expectation values calculated on a crude mesh can be extrapolated to obtain expectation values of high accuracy.

  8. A method for estimating the age-depth relationship of Dome Fuji Ice Core using a sequential Monte Carlo method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nakano, Shinya; Suzuki, Kazue; Kawamura, Kenji; Parrenin, Frederic; Higuchi, Tomoyuki

    2015-04-01

    A technique for estimating the age-depth relationship and its uncertainty in ice cores has been developed. The age-depth relationship is mainly determined by the accumulation of snow at the site of the ice core and the thinning process due to the horizontal stretching and vertical compression of an ice layer. However, both the accumulation process and the thinning process are not fully known. In order to appropriately estimate the age as a function of depth, it is crucial to incorporate observational information into a model describing the accumulation and thinning processes. In the proposed technique, the age as a function of depth is estimated from age markers and time series of δ18O data. The estimation is achieved using a method combining a sequential Monte Carlo method and the Markov chain Monte Carlo method as proposed by Andrieu et al. (2010). In this hybrid method, the posterior distributions for the parameters in the models for the accumulation and thinning processes are basically computed using a way of the standard Metropolis-Hastings method. Meanwhile, sampling from the posterior distribution for the age-depth relationship is achieved by using a sequential Monte Carlo approach at each iteration of the Metropolis-Hastings method. A sequential Monte Carlo method normally suffers from the degeneracy problem, especially in cases that the number of steps is large. However, when it is combined with the Metropolis-Hastings method, the degeneracy problem can be overcome by collecting a large number of samples obtained by many iterations of the Metropolis-Hastings method. We will demonstrate the result obtained by applying the proposed technique to the ice core data from Dome Fuji in Antarctica.

  9. Effects of age, weight, and fat slaughter end points on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects for carcass traits.

    PubMed

    Ríos-Utrera, A; Cundiff, L V; Gregory, K E; Koch, R M; Dikeman, M E; Koohmaraie, M; Van Vleck, L D

    2006-01-01

    The influence of different levels of adjusted fat thickness (AFT) and HCW slaughter end points (covariates) on estimates of breed and retained heterosis effects was studied for 14 carcass traits from serially slaughtered purebred and composite steers from the US Meat Animal Research Center (MARC). Contrasts among breed solutions were estimated at 0.7, 1.1, and 1.5 cm of AFT, and at 295.1, 340.5, and 385.9 kg of HCW. For constant slaughter age, contrasts were adjusted to the overall mean (432.5 d). Breed effects for Red Poll, Hereford, Limousin, Braunvieh, Pinzgauer, Gelbvieh, Simmental, Charolais, MARC I, MARC II, and MARC III were estimated as deviations from Angus. In addition, purebreds were pooled into 3 groups based on lean-to-fat ratio, and then differences were estimated among groups. Retention of combined individual and maternal heterosis was estimated for each composite. Mean retained heterosis for the 3 composites also was estimated. Breed rankings and expression of heterosis varied within and among end points. For example, Charolais had greater (P < 0.05) dressing percentages than Angus at the 2 largest levels of AFT and smaller (P < 0.01) percentages at the 2 largest levels of HCW, whereas the 2 breeds did not differ (P > or = 0.05) at a constant age. The MARC III composite produced 9.7 kg more (P < 0.01) fat than Angus at AFT of 0.7 cm, but 7.9 kg less (P < 0.05) at AFT of 1.5 cm. For MARC III, the estimate of retained heterosis for HCW was significant (P < 0.05) at the lowest level of AFT, but at the intermediate and greatest levels estimates were nil. The pattern was the same for MARC I and MARC III for LM area. Adjustment for age resulted in near zero estimates of retained heterosis for AFT, and similarly, adjustment for HCW resulted in nil estimates of retained heterosis for LM area. For actual retail product as a percentage of HCW, the estimate of retained heterosis for MARC III was negative (-1.27%; P < 0.05) at 0.7 cm but was significantly

  10. Evaluation of age estimation in forensic medicine by examination of medial clavicular ossification from thin-slice computed tomography images.

    PubMed

    Gurses, Murat Serdar; Inanir, Nursel Turkmen; Gokalp, Gokhan; Fedakar, Recep; Tobcu, Eren; Ocakoglu, Gokhan

    2016-09-01

    Forensic age estimation, a recent topic of research in forensic medicine, is of primary importance to criminal and civil law. Previous studies indicate that the observation of medial clavicular ossification allows for age discrimination along the completed 18th and 21st years of life. Experts recommend that the Schmeling and Kellinghaus methods be used together. In this study, we used these staging methods to retrospectively analyze 725 case studies (385 males, 340 females) of thin-slice computed tomography (CT) images, ranging from 0.6 to 1 mm in thickness, from individuals aged 10 to 35 years. Stage 1 was found at 18 years of age maximum for males, whereas it was found at 17 years of age for females. Stage 2a was found at 18 years of age maximum for both genders. Stage 3c was initially observed at 18 years for both genders. Stage 4 was initially found at 21 years for males and 20 years for females. Stage 5 was initially observed at 25 years for both genders. Of note, stage 3c was found close to 19 years of age for both genders (18.92 years for male, 18.99 years for female), and it may be employed to differentiate along the age majority cutoff. The data obtained from our study were consistent with previous studies. We believe that such a comprehensive database will greatly contribute to future studies focusing on medial clavicular ossification based on thin-slice CT. Moreover, we also recommend that if medial clavicular ossification based on CT is to be examined for forensic age estimation, both methods should be employed together. PMID:27352083

  11. Age estimation by pulp/tooth ratio in canines by mesial and vestibular peri-apical X-rays.

    PubMed

    Cameriere, Roberto; Ferrante, Luigi; Belcastro, Maria Giovanna; Bonfiglioli, Benedetta; Rastelli, Elisa; Cingolani, Mariano

    2007-09-01

    Changes in the size of the pulp canal, caused by apposition of secondary dentine, are the best morphometric parameters for estimating age by X-rays. The apposition of secondary dentine is the most frequently used method for age estimation in adult subjects. In two previous papers, we studied the application of the pulp/tooth area ratio by peri-apical X-rays as an indicator of age at death. The aim of the present study was to test the accuracy of age evaluation by combined analysis of labio-lingual and mesial peri-apical X-rays of lower and upper canines. A total of 200 such X-rays were assembled from 57 male and 43 female skeletons of Caucasian origin, aged between 20 and 79 years. For each skeleton, dental maturity was evaluated by measuring the pulp/tooth area ratio according to labio-lingual and mesial X-rays on upper (x(1), x(2)) and lower (x(3), x(4)) canines. Very good agreement was found between intra-observer measurements. Statistical analysis showed that all variables x(1), x(2), x(3), and x(4) and the first-order interaction between x(1) and x(3) contributed significantly to the fit, so that they were included in the regression model, yielding the following regression formula: Age = 120.737 - 337.112x(1) - 79.709x(2) - 364.534x(3) - 65.655x(4) + 1531.918x(1)x(3) . The residual standard error of estimated ages was 3.62 years, with 94 degrees of freedom, and the median of the residuals was -0.155 years, with an interquartile range of 4.96 years. The accuracy of the method was ME = 2.8 years, where ME is the mean prediction error. The model also explained 94% of total variance (R(2) = 0.94). PMID:17680998

  12. Age estimation by modified Demirjian's method (2004) and its applicability in Tibetan young adults: A digital panoramic study

    PubMed Central

    Bijjaragi, Shobha C; Sangle, Varsha A; Saraswathi, FK; Patil, Veerendra S; Ashwini Rani, SR; Bapure, Sunil K

    2015-01-01

    Context: Estimation of the age is a procedure adopted by anthropologists, archeologists and forensic scientists. Different methods have been undertaken. However none of them meet the standards as Demirjian's method since 1973. Various researchers have applied this method, in both original and modified form (Chaillet and Demirjian in 2004) in different ethnic groups and the results obtained were not satisfactory. Aims: To determine the applicability and accuracy of modified Demirjian's method of dental age estimation (AE) in 8–18 year old Tibetan young adults to evaluate the interrelationship between dental and chronological age and the reliability between intra- and inter observer relationship. Settings and Design: Clinical setting and computerized design. Subjects and Methods: A total of 300 Tibetan young adults with an age range from 8 to 18 years were recruited in the study. D