Science.gov

Sample records for accurate parameter estimates

  1. Accurate Parameter Estimation for Unbalanced Three-Phase System

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Yuan

    2014-01-01

    Smart grid is an intelligent power generation and control console in modern electricity networks, where the unbalanced three-phase power system is the commonly used model. Here, parameter estimation for this system is addressed. After converting the three-phase waveforms into a pair of orthogonal signals via the α β-transformation, the nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator is developed for accurately finding the frequency, phase, and voltage parameters. The estimator is realized by the Newton-Raphson scheme, whose global convergence is studied in this paper. Computer simulations show that the mean square error performance of NLS method can attain the Cramér-Rao lower bound. Moreover, our proposal provides more accurate frequency estimation when compared with the complex least mean square (CLMS) and augmented CLMS. PMID:25162056

  2. Accurate parameter estimation for unbalanced three-phase system.

    PubMed

    Chen, Yuan; So, Hing Cheung

    2014-01-01

    Smart grid is an intelligent power generation and control console in modern electricity networks, where the unbalanced three-phase power system is the commonly used model. Here, parameter estimation for this system is addressed. After converting the three-phase waveforms into a pair of orthogonal signals via the α β-transformation, the nonlinear least squares (NLS) estimator is developed for accurately finding the frequency, phase, and voltage parameters. The estimator is realized by the Newton-Raphson scheme, whose global convergence is studied in this paper. Computer simulations show that the mean square error performance of NLS method can attain the Cramér-Rao lower bound. Moreover, our proposal provides more accurate frequency estimation when compared with the complex least mean square (CLMS) and augmented CLMS.

  3. Parameter Estimation of Ion Current Formulations Requires Hybrid Optimization Approach to Be Both Accurate and Reliable

    PubMed Central

    Loewe, Axel; Wilhelms, Mathias; Schmid, Jochen; Krause, Mathias J.; Fischer, Fathima; Thomas, Dierk; Scholz, Eberhard P.; Dössel, Olaf; Seemann, Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    Computational models of cardiac electrophysiology provided insights into arrhythmogenesis and paved the way toward tailored therapies in the last years. To fully leverage in silico models in future research, these models need to be adapted to reflect pathologies, genetic alterations, or pharmacological effects, however. A common approach is to leave the structure of established models unaltered and estimate the values of a set of parameters. Today’s high-throughput patch clamp data acquisition methods require robust, unsupervised algorithms that estimate parameters both accurately and reliably. In this work, two classes of optimization approaches are evaluated: gradient-based trust-region-reflective and derivative-free particle swarm algorithms. Using synthetic input data and different ion current formulations from the Courtemanche et al. electrophysiological model of human atrial myocytes, we show that neither of the two schemes alone succeeds to meet all requirements. Sequential combination of the two algorithms did improve the performance to some extent but not satisfactorily. Thus, we propose a novel hybrid approach coupling the two algorithms in each iteration. This hybrid approach yielded very accurate estimates with minimal dependency on the initial guess using synthetic input data for which a ground truth parameter set exists. When applied to measured data, the hybrid approach yielded the best fit, again with minimal variation. Using the proposed algorithm, a single run is sufficient to estimate the parameters. The degree of superiority over the other investigated algorithms in terms of accuracy and robustness depended on the type of current. In contrast to the non-hybrid approaches, the proposed method proved to be optimal for data of arbitrary signal to noise ratio. The hybrid algorithm proposed in this work provides an important tool to integrate experimental data into computational models both accurately and robustly allowing to assess the often non

  4. Accurate estimation of motion blur parameters in noisy remote sensing image

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Xueyan; Wang, Lin; Shao, Xiaopeng; Wang, Huilin; Tao, Zhong

    2015-05-01

    The relative motion between remote sensing satellite sensor and objects is one of the most common reasons for remote sensing image degradation. It seriously weakens image data interpretation and information extraction. In practice, point spread function (PSF) should be estimated firstly for image restoration. Identifying motion blur direction and length accurately is very crucial for PSF and restoring image with precision. In general, the regular light-and-dark stripes in the spectrum can be employed to obtain the parameters by using Radon transform. However, serious noise existing in actual remote sensing images often causes the stripes unobvious. The parameters would be difficult to calculate and the error of the result relatively big. In this paper, an improved motion blur parameter identification method to noisy remote sensing image is proposed to solve this problem. The spectrum characteristic of noisy remote sensing image is analyzed firstly. An interactive image segmentation method based on graph theory called GrabCut is adopted to effectively extract the edge of the light center in the spectrum. Motion blur direction is estimated by applying Radon transform on the segmentation result. In order to reduce random error, a method based on whole column statistics is used during calculating blur length. Finally, Lucy-Richardson algorithm is applied to restore the remote sensing images of the moon after estimating blur parameters. The experimental results verify the effectiveness and robustness of our algorithm.

  5. Bayesian parameter estimation of a k-ε model for accurate jet-in-crossflow simulations

    DOE PAGES

    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia; Arunajatesan, Srinivasan; Dechant, Lawrence

    2016-05-31

    Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes models are not very accurate for high-Reynolds-number compressible jet-in-crossflow interactions. The inaccuracy arises from the use of inappropriate model parameters and model-form errors in the Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes model. In this study, the hypothesis is pursued that Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes predictions can be significantly improved by using parameters inferred from experimental measurements of a supersonic jet interacting with a transonic crossflow.

  6. Polynomial fitting of DT-MRI fiber tracts allows accurate estimation of muscle architectural parameters.

    PubMed

    Damon, Bruce M; Heemskerk, Anneriet M; Ding, Zhaohua

    2012-06-01

    Fiber curvature is a functionally significant muscle structural property, but its estimation from diffusion-tensor magnetic resonance imaging fiber tracking data may be confounded by noise. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of polynomial fitting of fiber tracts for improving the accuracy and precision of fiber curvature (κ) measurements. Simulated image data sets were created in order to provide data with known values for κ and pennation angle (θ). Simulations were designed to test the effects of increasing inherent fiber curvature (3.8, 7.9, 11.8 and 15.3 m(-1)), signal-to-noise ratio (50, 75, 100 and 150) and voxel geometry (13.8- and 27.0-mm(3) voxel volume with isotropic resolution; 13.5-mm(3) volume with an aspect ratio of 4.0) on κ and θ measurements. In the originally reconstructed tracts, θ was estimated accurately under most curvature and all imaging conditions studied; however, the estimates of κ were imprecise and inaccurate. Fitting the tracts to second-order polynomial functions provided accurate and precise estimates of κ for all conditions except very high curvature (κ=15.3 m(-1)), while preserving the accuracy of the θ estimates. Similarly, polynomial fitting of in vivo fiber tracking data reduced the κ values of fitted tracts from those of unfitted tracts and did not change the θ values. Polynomial fitting of fiber tracts allows accurate estimation of physiologically reasonable values of κ, while preserving the accuracy of θ estimation.

  7. FAST TRACK COMMUNICATION Accurate estimate of α variation and isotope shift parameters in Na and Mg+

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sahoo, B. K.

    2010-12-01

    We present accurate calculations of fine-structure constant variation coefficients and isotope shifts in Na and Mg+ using the relativistic coupled-cluster method. In our approach, we are able to discover the roles of various correlation effects explicitly to all orders in these calculations. Most of the results, especially for the excited states, are reported for the first time. It is possible to ascertain suitable anchor and probe lines for the studies of possible variation in the fine-structure constant by using the above results in the considered systems.

  8. Compact and accurate linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average model parameter estimation using laguerre functions.

    PubMed

    Chon, K H; Cohen, R J; Holstein-Rathlou, N H

    1997-01-01

    A linear and nonlinear autoregressive moving average (ARMA) identification algorithm is developed for modeling time series data. The algorithm uses Laguerre expansion of kernals (LEK) to estimate Volterra-Wiener kernals. However, instead of estimating linear and nonlinear system dynamics via moving average models, as is the case for the Volterra-Wiener analysis, we propose an ARMA model-based approach. The proposed algorithm is essentially the same as LEK, but this algorithm is extended to include past values of the output as well. Thus, all of the advantages associated with using the Laguerre function remain with our algorithm; but, by extending the algorithm to the linear and nonlinear ARMA model, a significant reduction in the number of Laguerre functions can be made, compared with the Volterra-Wiener approach. This translates into a more compact system representation and makes the physiological interpretation of higher order kernels easier. Furthermore, simulation results show better performance of the proposed approach in estimating the system dynamics than LEK in certain cases, and it remains effective in the presence of significant additive measurement noise. PMID:9236985

  9. A robust and accurate center-frequency estimation (RACE) algorithm for improving motion estimation performance of SinMod on tagged cardiac MR images without known tagging parameters.

    PubMed

    Liu, Hong; Wang, Jie; Xu, Xiangyang; Song, Enmin; Wang, Qian; Jin, Renchao; Hung, Chih-Cheng; Fei, Baowei

    2014-11-01

    A robust and accurate center-frequency (CF) estimation (RACE) algorithm for improving the performance of the local sine-wave modeling (SinMod) method, which is a good motion estimation method for tagged cardiac magnetic resonance (MR) images, is proposed in this study. The RACE algorithm can automatically, effectively and efficiently produce a very appropriate CF estimate for the SinMod method, under the circumstance that the specified tagging parameters are unknown, on account of the following two key techniques: (1) the well-known mean-shift algorithm, which can provide accurate and rapid CF estimation; and (2) an original two-direction-combination strategy, which can further enhance the accuracy and robustness of CF estimation. Some other available CF estimation algorithms are brought out for comparison. Several validation approaches that can work on the real data without ground truths are specially designed. Experimental results on human body in vivo cardiac data demonstrate the significance of accurate CF estimation for SinMod, and validate the effectiveness of RACE in facilitating the motion estimation performance of SinMod.

  10. Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T. Douglas

    2015-09-01

    Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature.

  11. Optimization of tissue physical parameters for accurate temperature estimation from finite-element simulation of radiofrequency ablation.

    PubMed

    Subramanian, Swetha; Mast, T Douglas

    2015-10-01

    Computational finite element models are commonly used for the simulation of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) treatments. However, the accuracy of these simulations is limited by the lack of precise knowledge of tissue parameters. In this technical note, an inverse solver based on the unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is proposed to optimize values for specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity resulting in accurately simulated temperature elevations. A total of 15 RFA treatments were performed on ex vivo bovine liver tissue. For each RFA treatment, 15 finite-element simulations were performed using a set of deterministically chosen tissue parameters to estimate the mean and variance of the resulting tissue ablation. The UKF was implemented as an inverse solver to recover the specific heat, thermal conductivity, and electrical conductivity corresponding to the measured area of the ablated tissue region, as determined from gross tissue histology. These tissue parameters were then employed in the finite element model to simulate the position- and time-dependent tissue temperature. Results show good agreement between simulated and measured temperature. PMID:26352462

  12. Aircraft parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iliff, Kenneth W.

    1987-01-01

    The aircraft parameter estimation problem is used to illustrate the utility of parameter estimation, which applies to many engineering and scientific fields. Maximum likelihood estimation has been used to extract stability and control derivatives from flight data for many years. This paper presents some of the basic concepts of aircraft parameter estimation and briefly surveys the literature in the field. The maximum likelihood estimator is discussed, and the basic concepts of minimization and estimation are examined for a simple simulated aircraft example. The cost functions that are to be minimized during estimation are defined and discussed. Graphic representations of the cost functions are given to illustrate the minimization process. Finally, the basic concepts are generalized, and estimation from flight data is discussed. Some of the major conclusions for the simulated example are also developed for the analysis of flight data from the F-14, highly maneuverable aircraft technology (HiMAT), and space shuttle vehicles.

  13. Precision cosmological parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fendt, William Ashton, Jr.

    2009-09-01

    methods. These techniques will help in the understanding of new physics contained in current and future data sets as well as benefit the research efforts of the cosmology community. Our idea is to shift the computationally intensive pieces of the parameter estimation framework to a parallel training step. We then provide a machine learning code that uses this training set to learn the relationship between the underlying cosmological parameters and the function we wish to compute. This code is very accurate and simple to evaluate. It can provide incredible speed- ups of parameter estimation codes. For some applications this provides the convenience of obtaining results faster, while in other cases this allows the use of codes that would be impossible to apply in the brute force setting. In this thesis we provide several examples where our method allows more accurate computation of functions important for data analysis than is currently possible. As the techniques developed in this work are very general, there are no doubt a wide array of applications both inside and outside of cosmology. We have already seen this interest as other scientists have presented ideas for using our algorithm to improve their computational work, indicating its importance as modern experiments push forward. In fact, our algorithm will play an important role in the parameter analysis of Planck, the next generation CMB space mission.

  14. Parameter Estimation with Ignorance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, H.; Smith, L. A.

    2012-04-01

    Parameter estimation in nonlinear models is a common task, and one for which there is no general solution at present. In the case of linear models, the distribution of forecast errors provides a reliable guide to parameter estimation, but in nonlinear models the facts that (1) predictability may vary with location in state space, and that (2) the distribution of forecast errors is expected not to be Normal, suggests that parameter estimates based on least squares methods may be systematically biased. Parameter estimation for nonlinear systems based on variations in the accuracy of probability forecasts is considered. Empirical results for several chaotic systems (the Logistic Map, the Henon Map and the 12-D Lorenz96 flow) are presented at various noise levels and sampling rates. Selecting parameter values by minimizing Ignorance, a proper local skill score for continuous probability forecasts as a function of the parameter values is easier to implement in practice than alternative nonlinear methods based on the geometry of attractors, the ability of the model to shadow the observations or model synchronization. As expected, it is more effective when the forecast error distributions are non-Gaussian. The goal of parameter estimation is not defined uniquely when the model class is imperfect. In short, the desired parameter values can be expected to be a function of the application for which they are determined. Parameter estimation in this imperfect model scenario is also discussed. Initial experiments suggest that our approach is also useful for identifying "best" parameter in an imperfect model as long as the notion of "best" is well defined. The information deficit, defined as the difference between the Empirical Ignorance and Implied Ignorance can be used to identify remaining forecast system inadequacy, in both perfect and imperfect model scenario.

  15. Accurate Stellar Parameters for Exoplanet Host Stars

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brewer, John Michael; Fischer, Debra; Basu, Sarbani; Valenti, Jeff A.

    2015-01-01

    A large impedement to our understanding of planet formation is obtaining a clear picture of planet radii and densities. Although determining precise ratios between planet and stellar host are relatively easy, determining accurate stellar parameters is still a difficult and costly undertaking. High resolution spectral analysis has traditionally yielded precise values for some stellar parameters but stars in common between catalogs from different authors or analyzed using different techniques often show offsets far in excess of their uncertainties. Most analyses now use some external constraint, when available, to break observed degeneracies between surface gravity, effective temperature, and metallicity which can otherwise lead to correlated errors in results. However, these external constraints are impossible to obtain for all stars and can require more costly observations than the initial high resolution spectra. We demonstrate that these discrepencies can be mitigated by use of a larger line list that has carefully tuned atomic line data. We use an iterative modeling technique that does not require external constraints. We compare the surface gravity obtained with our spectral synthesis modeling to asteroseismically determined values for 42 Kepler stars. Our analysis agrees well with only a 0.048 dex offset and an rms scatter of 0.05 dex. Such accurate stellar gravities can reduce the primary source of uncertainty in radii by almost an order of magnitude over unconstrained spectral analysis.

  16. Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    McKellip, Rodney D.; Ross, Kenton W.; Spruce, Joseph P.; Smoot, James C.; Ryan, Robert E.; Gasser, Gerald E.; Prados, Donald L.; Vaughan, Ronald D.

    2010-01-01

    The Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool (PPET) is a set of algorithms implemented in MATLAB that estimates key vegetative phenological parameters. For a given year, the PPET software package takes in temporally processed vegetation index data (3D spatio-temporal arrays) generated by the time series product tool (TSPT) and outputs spatial grids (2D arrays) of vegetation phenological parameters. As a precursor to PPET, the TSPT uses quality information for each pixel of each date to remove bad or suspect data, and then interpolates and digitally fills data voids in the time series to produce a continuous, smoothed vegetation index product. During processing, the TSPT displays NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) time series plots and images from the temporally processed pixels. Both the TSPT and PPET currently use moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite multispectral data as a default, but each software package is modifiable and could be used with any high-temporal-rate remote sensing data collection system that is capable of producing vegetation indices. Raw MODIS data from the Aqua and Terra satellites is processed using the TSPT to generate a filtered time series data product. The PPET then uses the TSPT output to generate phenological parameters for desired locations. PPET output data tiles are mosaicked into a Conterminous United States (CONUS) data layer using ERDAS IMAGINE, or equivalent software package. Mosaics of the vegetation phenology data products are then reprojected to the desired map projection using ERDAS IMAGINE

  17. Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wheeler, Kevin R.; Knuth, Kevin H.; Castle, Joseph P.; Lvov, Nikolay

    2005-01-01

    The following concepts were introduced: a) Bayesian adaptive sampling for solving biomass estimation; b) Characterization of MISR Rahman model parameters conditioned upon MODIS landcover. c) Rigorous non-parametric Bayesian approach to analytic mixture model determination. d) Unique U.S. asset for science product validation and verification.

  18. Bibliography for aircraft parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iliff, Kenneth W.; Maine, Richard E.

    1986-01-01

    An extensive bibliography in the field of aircraft parameter estimation has been compiled. This list contains definitive works related to most aircraft parameter estimation approaches. Theoretical studies as well as practical applications are included. Many of these publications are pertinent to subjects peripherally related to parameter estimation, such as aircraft maneuver design or instrumentation considerations.

  19. Estimation for large non-centrality parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inácio, Sónia; Mexia, João; Fonseca, Miguel; Carvalho, Francisco

    2016-06-01

    We introduce the concept of estimability for models for which accurate estimators can be obtained for the respective parameters. The study was conducted for model with almost scalar matrix using the study of estimability after validation of these models. In the validation of these models we use F statistics with non centrality parameter τ =‖λ/‖2 σ2 when this parameter is sufficiently large we obtain good estimators for λ and α so there is estimability. Thus, we are interested in obtaining a lower bound for the non-centrality parameter. In this context we use for the statistical inference inducing pivot variables, see Ferreira et al. 2013, and asymptotic linearity, introduced by Mexia & Oliveira 2011, to derive confidence intervals for large non-centrality parameters (see Inácio et al. 2015). These results enable us to measure relevance of effects and interactions in multifactors models when we get highly statistically significant the values of F tests statistics.

  20. Parameter estimation in food science.

    PubMed

    Dolan, Kirk D; Mishra, Dharmendra K

    2013-01-01

    Modeling includes two distinct parts, the forward problem and the inverse problem. The forward problem-computing y(t) given known parameters-has received much attention, especially with the explosion of commercial simulation software. What is rarely made clear is that the forward results can be no better than the accuracy of the parameters. Therefore, the inverse problem-estimation of parameters given measured y(t)-is at least as important as the forward problem. However, in the food science literature there has been little attention paid to the accuracy of parameters. The purpose of this article is to summarize the state of the art of parameter estimation in food science, to review some of the common food science models used for parameter estimation (for microbial inactivation and growth, thermal properties, and kinetics), and to suggest a generic method to standardize parameter estimation, thereby making research results more useful. Scaled sensitivity coefficients are introduced and shown to be important in parameter identifiability. Sequential estimation and optimal experimental design are also reviewed as powerful parameter estimation methods that are beginning to be used in the food science literature.

  1. 31 CFR 205.24 - How are accurate estimates maintained?

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 31 Money and Finance: Treasury 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false How are accurate estimates maintained... Treasury-State Agreement § 205.24 How are accurate estimates maintained? (a) If a State has knowledge that an estimate does not reasonably correspond to the State's cash needs for a Federal assistance...

  2. Accurate estimation of sigma(exp 0) using AIRSAR data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holecz, Francesco; Rignot, Eric

    1995-01-01

    During recent years signature analysis, classification, and modeling of Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data as well as estimation of geophysical parameters from SAR data have received a great deal of interest. An important requirement for the quantitative use of SAR data is the accurate estimation of the backscattering coefficient sigma(exp 0). In terrain with relief variations radar signals are distorted due to the projection of the scene topography into the slant range-Doppler plane. The effect of these variations is to change the physical size of the scattering area, leading to errors in the radar backscatter values and incidence angle. For this reason the local incidence angle, derived from sensor position and Digital Elevation Model (DEM) data must always be considered. Especially in the airborne case, the antenna gain pattern can be an additional source of radiometric error, because the radar look angle is not known precisely as a result of the the aircraft motions and the local surface topography. Consequently, radiometric distortions due to the antenna gain pattern must also be corrected for each resolution cell, by taking into account aircraft displacements (position and attitude) and position of the backscatter element, defined by the DEM data. In this paper, a method to derive an accurate estimation of the backscattering coefficient using NASA/JPL AIRSAR data is presented. The results are evaluated in terms of geometric accuracy, radiometric variations of sigma(exp 0), and precision of the estimated forest biomass.

  3. Micromagnetometer calibration for accurate orientation estimation.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhi-Qiang; Yang, Guang-Zhong

    2015-02-01

    Micromagnetometers, together with inertial sensors, are widely used for attitude estimation for a wide variety of applications. However, appropriate sensor calibration, which is essential to the accuracy of attitude reconstruction, must be performed in advance. Thus far, many different magnetometer calibration methods have been proposed to compensate for errors such as scale, offset, and nonorthogonality. They have also been used for obviate magnetic errors due to soft and hard iron. However, in order to combine the magnetometer with inertial sensor for attitude reconstruction, alignment difference between the magnetometer and the axes of the inertial sensor must be determined as well. This paper proposes a practical means of sensor error correction by simultaneous consideration of sensor errors, magnetic errors, and alignment difference. We take the summation of the offset and hard iron error as the combined bias and then amalgamate the alignment difference and all the other errors as a transformation matrix. A two-step approach is presented to determine the combined bias and transformation matrix separately. In the first step, the combined bias is determined by finding an optimal ellipsoid that can best fit the sensor readings. In the second step, the intrinsic relationships of the raw sensor readings are explored to estimate the transformation matrix as a homogeneous linear least-squares problem. Singular value decomposition is then applied to estimate both the transformation matrix and magnetic vector. The proposed method is then applied to calibrate our sensor node. Although there is no ground truth for the combined bias and transformation matrix for our node, the consistency of calibration results among different trials and less than 3(°) root mean square error for orientation estimation have been achieved, which illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed sensor calibration method for practical applications. PMID:25265625

  4. Robot arm geometric link parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hayati, S. A.

    A general method for estimating serial link manipulator geometric parameter errors is proposed in this paper. The positioning accuracy of the end-effector may be increased significantly by updating the nominal link parameters in the control software to represent the physical system more accurately. The proposed method is applicable for serial link manipulators with any combination of revolute or prismatic joints, and is not limited to a specific measurement technique.

  5. Reionization history and CMB parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Dizgah, Azadeh Moradinezhad; Kinney, William H.; Gnedin, Nickolay Y. E-mail: gnedin@fnal.edu

    2013-05-01

    We study how uncertainty in the reionization history of the universe affects estimates of other cosmological parameters from the Cosmic Microwave Background. We analyze WMAP7 data and synthetic Planck-quality data generated using a realistic scenario for the reionization history of the universe obtained from high-resolution numerical simulation. We perform parameter estimation using a simple sudden reionization approximation, and using the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) technique proposed by Mortonson and Hu. We reach two main conclusions: (1) Adopting a simple sudden reionization model does not introduce measurable bias into values for other parameters, indicating that detailed modeling of reionization is not necessary for the purpose of parameter estimation from future CMB data sets such as Planck. (2) PCA analysis does not allow accurate reconstruction of the actual reionization history of the universe in a realistic case.

  6. Frequency tracking and parameter estimation for robust quantum state estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Ralph, Jason F.; Jacobs, Kurt; Hill, Charles D.

    2011-11-15

    In this paper we consider the problem of tracking the state of a quantum system via a continuous weak measurement. If the system Hamiltonian is known precisely, this merely requires integrating the appropriate stochastic master equation. However, even a small error in the assumed Hamiltonian can render this approach useless. The natural answer to this problem is to include the parameters of the Hamiltonian as part of the estimation problem, and the full Bayesian solution to this task provides a state estimate that is robust against uncertainties. However, this approach requires considerable computational overhead. Here we consider a single qubit in which the Hamiltonian contains a single unknown parameter. We show that classical frequency estimation techniques greatly reduce the computational overhead associated with Bayesian estimation and provide accurate estimates for the qubit frequency.

  7. Parameter Estimation Using VLA Data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Venter, Willem C.

    The main objective of this dissertation is to extract parameters from multiple wavelength images, on a pixel-to-pixel basis, when the images are corrupted with noise and a point spread function. The data used are from the field of radio astronomy. The very large array (VLA) at Socorro in New Mexico was used to observe planetary nebula NGC 7027 at three different wavelengths, 2 cm, 6 cm and 20 cm. A temperature model, describing the temperature variation in the nebula as a function of optical depth, is postulated. Mathematical expressions for the brightness distribution (flux density) of the nebula, at the three observed wavelengths, are obtained. Using these three equations and the three data values available, one from the observed flux density map at each wavelength, it is possible to solve for two temperature parameters and one optical depth parameter at each pixel location. Due to the fact that the number of unknowns equal the number of equations available, estimation theory cannot be used to smooth any noise present in the data values. It was found that a direct solution of the three highly nonlinear flux density equations is very sensitive to noise in the data. Results obtained from solving for the three unknown parameters directly, as discussed above, were not physical realizable. This was partly due to the effect of incomplete sampling at the time when the data were gathered and to noise in the system. The application of rigorous digital parameter estimation techniques result in estimated parameters that are also not physically realizable. The estimated values for the temperature parameters are for example either too high or negative, which is not physically possible. Simulation studies have shown that a "double smoothing" technique improves the results by a large margin. This technique consists of two parts: in the first part the original observed data are smoothed using a running window and in the second part a similar smoothing of the estimated parameters

  8. Parameter and state estimation for articulated heavy vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheng, Caizhen; Cebon, David

    2011-02-01

    This article discusses algorithms to estimate parameters and states of articulated heavy vehicles. First, 3- and 5-degrees-of-freedom linear vehicle models of a tractor semitrailer are presented. Vehicle parameter estimation methods based on the dual extended Kalman filter and state estimation based on the Kalman filter are presented. A program of experimental tests on an instrumental heavy goods vehicle is described. Simulation and experimental results showed that the algorithms generate accurate estimates of vehicle parameters and states under most circumstances.

  9. Quantifying Accurate Calorie Estimation Using the "Think Aloud" Method

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Holmstrup, Michael E.; Stearns-Bruening, Kay; Rozelle, Jeffrey

    2013-01-01

    Objective: Clients often have limited time in a nutrition education setting. An improved understanding of the strategies used to accurately estimate calories may help to identify areas of focused instruction to improve nutrition knowledge. Methods: A "Think Aloud" exercise was recorded during the estimation of calories in a standard dinner meal…

  10. Machine learning of parameters for accurate semiempirical quantum chemical calculations

    SciTech Connect

    Dral, Pavlo O.; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Thiel, Walter

    2015-04-14

    We investigate possible improvements in the accuracy of semiempirical quantum chemistry (SQC) methods through the use of machine learning (ML) models for the parameters. For a given class of compounds, ML techniques require sufficiently large training sets to develop ML models that can be used for adapting SQC parameters to reflect changes in molecular composition and geometry. The ML-SQC approach allows the automatic tuning of SQC parameters for individual molecules, thereby improving the accuracy without deteriorating transferability to molecules with molecular descriptors very different from those in the training set. The performance of this approach is demonstrated for the semiempirical OM2 method using a set of 6095 constitutional isomers C7H10O2, for which accurate ab initio atomization enthalpies are available. The ML-OM2 results show improved average accuracy and a much reduced error range compared with those of standard OM2 results, with mean absolute errors in atomization enthalpies dropping from 6.3 to 1.7 kcal/mol. They are also found to be superior to the results from specific OM2 reparameterizations (rOM2) for the same set of isomers. The ML-SQC approach thus holds promise for fast and reasonably accurate high-throughput screening of materials and molecules.

  11. Machine learning of parameters for accurate semiempirical quantum chemical calculations

    DOE PAGES

    Dral, Pavlo O.; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Thiel, Walter

    2015-04-14

    We investigate possible improvements in the accuracy of semiempirical quantum chemistry (SQC) methods through the use of machine learning (ML) models for the parameters. For a given class of compounds, ML techniques require sufficiently large training sets to develop ML models that can be used for adapting SQC parameters to reflect changes in molecular composition and geometry. The ML-SQC approach allows the automatic tuning of SQC parameters for individual molecules, thereby improving the accuracy without deteriorating transferability to molecules with molecular descriptors very different from those in the training set. The performance of this approach is demonstrated for the semiempiricalmore » OM2 method using a set of 6095 constitutional isomers C7H10O2, for which accurate ab initio atomization enthalpies are available. The ML-OM2 results show improved average accuracy and a much reduced error range compared with those of standard OM2 results, with mean absolute errors in atomization enthalpies dropping from 6.3 to 1.7 kcal/mol. They are also found to be superior to the results from specific OM2 reparameterizations (rOM2) for the same set of isomers. The ML-SQC approach thus holds promise for fast and reasonably accurate high-throughput screening of materials and molecules.« less

  12. Parameter estimation for transformer modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cho, Sung Don

    Large Power transformers, an aging and vulnerable part of our energy infrastructure, are at choke points in the grid and are key to reliability and security. Damage or destruction due to vandalism, misoperation, or other unexpected events is of great concern, given replacement costs upward of $2M and lead time of 12 months. Transient overvoltages can cause great damage and there is much interest in improving computer simulation models to correctly predict and avoid the consequences. EMTP (the Electromagnetic Transients Program) has been developed for computer simulation of power system transients. Component models for most equipment have been developed and benchmarked. Power transformers would appear to be simple. However, due to their nonlinear and frequency-dependent behaviors, they can be one of the most complex system components to model. It is imperative that the applied models be appropriate for the range of frequencies and excitation levels that the system experiences. Thus, transformer modeling is not a mature field and newer improved models must be made available. In this work, improved topologically-correct duality-based models are developed for three-phase autotransformers having five-legged, three-legged, and shell-form cores. The main problem in the implementation of detailed models is the lack of complete and reliable data, as no international standard suggests how to measure and calculate parameters. Therefore, parameter estimation methods are developed here to determine the parameters of a given model in cases where available information is incomplete. The transformer nameplate data is required and relative physical dimensions of the core are estimated. The models include a separate representation of each segment of the core, including hysteresis of the core, lambda-i saturation characteristic, capacitive effects, and frequency dependency of winding resistance and core loss. Steady-state excitation, and de-energization and re-energization transients

  13. Rapid Compact Binary Coalescence Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pankow, Chris; Brady, Patrick; O'Shaughnessy, Richard; Ochsner, Evan; Qi, Hong

    2016-03-01

    The first observation run with second generation gravitational-wave observatories will conclude at the beginning of 2016. Given their unprecedented and growing sensitivity, the benefit of prompt and accurate estimation of the orientation and physical parameters of binary coalescences is obvious in its coupling to electromagnetic astrophysics and observations. Popular Bayesian schemes to measure properties of compact object binaries use Markovian sampling to compute the posterior. While very successful, in some cases, convergence is delayed until well after the electromagnetic fluence has subsided thus diminishing the potential science return. With this in mind, we have developed a scheme which is also Bayesian and simply parallelizable across all available computing resources, drastically decreasing convergence time to a few tens of minutes. In this talk, I will emphasize the complementary use of results from low latency gravitational-wave searches to improve computational efficiency and demonstrate the capabilities of our parameter estimation framework with a simulated set of binary compact object coalescences.

  14. Direct computation of parameters for accurate polarizable force fields

    SciTech Connect

    Verstraelen, Toon Vandenbrande, Steven; Ayers, Paul W.

    2014-11-21

    We present an improved electronic linear response model to incorporate polarization and charge-transfer effects in polarizable force fields. This model is a generalization of the Atom-Condensed Kohn-Sham Density Functional Theory (DFT), approximated to second order (ACKS2): it can now be defined with any underlying variational theory (next to KS-DFT) and it can include atomic multipoles and off-center basis functions. Parameters in this model are computed efficiently as expectation values of an electronic wavefunction, obviating the need for their calibration, regularization, and manual tuning. In the limit of a complete density and potential basis set in the ACKS2 model, the linear response properties of the underlying theory for a given molecular geometry are reproduced exactly. A numerical validation with a test set of 110 molecules shows that very accurate models can already be obtained with fluctuating charges and dipoles. These features greatly facilitate the development of polarizable force fields.

  15. Multidimensional Item Response Theory Parameter Estimation with Nonsimple Structure Items

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, Holmes

    2011-01-01

    Estimation of multidimensional item response theory (MIRT) model parameters can be carried out using the normal ogive with unweighted least squares estimation with the normal-ogive harmonic analysis robust method (NOHARM) software. Previous simulation research has demonstrated that this approach does yield accurate and efficient estimates of item…

  16. An Accurate Link Correlation Estimator for Improving Wireless Protocol Performance

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Zhiwei; Xu, Xianghua; Dong, Wei; Bu, Jiajun

    2015-01-01

    Wireless link correlation has shown significant impact on the performance of various sensor network protocols. Many works have been devoted to exploiting link correlation for protocol improvements. However, the effectiveness of these designs heavily relies on the accuracy of link correlation measurement. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art link correlation measurement and analyze the limitations of existing works. We then propose a novel lightweight and accurate link correlation estimation (LACE) approach based on the reasoning of link correlation formation. LACE combines both long-term and short-term link behaviors for link correlation estimation. We implement LACE as a stand-alone interface in TinyOS and incorporate it into both routing and flooding protocols. Simulation and testbed results show that LACE: (1) achieves more accurate and lightweight link correlation measurements than the state-of-the-art work; and (2) greatly improves the performance of protocols exploiting link correlation. PMID:25686314

  17. An accurate link correlation estimator for improving wireless protocol performance.

    PubMed

    Zhao, Zhiwei; Xu, Xianghua; Dong, Wei; Bu, Jiajun

    2015-02-12

    Wireless link correlation has shown significant impact on the performance of various sensor network protocols. Many works have been devoted to exploiting link correlation for protocol improvements. However, the effectiveness of these designs heavily relies on the accuracy of link correlation measurement. In this paper, we investigate state-of-the-art link correlation measurement and analyze the limitations of existing works. We then propose a novel lightweight and accurate link correlation estimation (LACE) approach based on the reasoning of link correlation formation. LACE combines both long-term and short-term link behaviors for link correlation estimation. We implement LACE as a stand-alone interface in TinyOS and incorporate it into both routing and flooding protocols. Simulation and testbed results show that LACE: (1) achieves more accurate and lightweight link correlation measurements than the state-of-the-art work; and (2) greatly improves the performance of protocols exploiting link correlation.

  18. Clinically accurate fetal ECG parameters acquired from maternal abdominal sensors

    PubMed Central

    CLIFFORD, Gari; SAMENI, Reza; WARD, Mr. Jay; ROBINSON, Julian; WOLFBERG, Adam J.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE To evaluate the accuracy of a novel system for measuring fetal heart rate and ST-segment changes using non-invasive electrodes on the maternal abdomen. STUDY DESIGN Fetal ECGs were recorded using abdominal sensors from 32 term laboring women who had a fetal scalp electrode (FSE) placed for a clinical indication. RESULTS Good quality data for FHR estimation was available in 91.2% of the FSE segments, and 89.9% of the abdominal electrode segments. The root mean square (RMS) error between the FHR data calculated by both methods over all processed segments was 0.36 beats per minute. ST deviation from the isoelectric point ranged from 0 to 14.2% of R-wave amplitude. The RMS error between the ST change calculated by both methods averaged over all processed segments was 3.2%. CONCLUSION FHR and ST change acquired from the maternal abdomen is highly accurate and on average is clinically indistinguishable from FHR and ST change calculated using FSE data. PMID:21514560

  19. Accurate photometric redshift probability density estimation - method comparison and application

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rau, Markus Michael; Seitz, Stella; Brimioulle, Fabrice; Frank, Eibe; Friedrich, Oliver; Gruen, Daniel; Hoyle, Ben

    2015-10-01

    We introduce an ordinal classification algorithm for photometric redshift estimation, which significantly improves the reconstruction of photometric redshift probability density functions (PDFs) for individual galaxies and galaxy samples. As a use case we apply our method to CFHTLS galaxies. The ordinal classification algorithm treats distinct redshift bins as ordered values, which improves the quality of photometric redshift PDFs, compared with non-ordinal classification architectures. We also propose a new single value point estimate of the galaxy redshift, which can be used to estimate the full redshift PDF of a galaxy sample. This method is competitive in terms of accuracy with contemporary algorithms, which stack the full redshift PDFs of all galaxies in the sample, but requires orders of magnitude less storage space. The methods described in this paper greatly improve the log-likelihood of individual object redshift PDFs, when compared with a popular neural network code (ANNZ). In our use case, this improvement reaches 50 per cent for high-redshift objects (z ≥ 0.75). We show that using these more accurate photometric redshift PDFs will lead to a reduction in the systematic biases by up to a factor of 4, when compared with less accurate PDFs obtained from commonly used methods. The cosmological analyses we examine and find improvement upon are the following: gravitational lensing cluster mass estimates, modelling of angular correlation functions and modelling of cosmic shear correlation functions.

  20. Accurate Satellite-Derived Estimates of Tropospheric Ozone Radiative Forcing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Joiner, Joanna; Schoeberl, Mark R.; Vasilkov, Alexander P.; Oreopoulos, Lazaros; Platnick, Steven; Livesey, Nathaniel J.; Levelt, Pieternel F.

    2008-01-01

    Estimates of the radiative forcing due to anthropogenically-produced tropospheric O3 are derived primarily from models. Here, we use tropospheric ozone and cloud data from several instruments in the A-train constellation of satellites as well as information from the GEOS-5 Data Assimilation System to accurately estimate the instantaneous radiative forcing from tropospheric O3 for January and July 2005. We improve upon previous estimates of tropospheric ozone mixing ratios from a residual approach using the NASA Earth Observing System (EOS) Aura Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) by incorporating cloud pressure information from OMI. Since we cannot distinguish between natural and anthropogenic sources with the satellite data, our estimates reflect the total forcing due to tropospheric O3. We focus specifically on the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud effect on both the shortand long-wave radiative forcing. The estimates presented here can be used to validate present day O3 radiative forcing produced by models.

  1. Does more accurate exposure prediction necessarily improve health effect estimates?

    PubMed

    Szpiro, Adam A; Paciorek, Christopher J; Sheppard, Lianne

    2011-09-01

    A unique challenge in air pollution cohort studies and similar applications in environmental epidemiology is that exposure is not measured directly at subjects' locations. Instead, pollution data from monitoring stations at some distance from the study subjects are used to predict exposures, and these predicted exposures are used to estimate the health effect parameter of interest. It is usually assumed that minimizing the error in predicting the true exposure will improve health effect estimation. We show in a simulation study that this is not always the case. We interpret our results in light of recently developed statistical theory for measurement error, and we discuss implications for the design and analysis of epidemiologic research.

  2. RAINFALL-LOSS PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR ILLINOIS.

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiss, Linda S.; Ishii, Audrey

    1986-01-01

    The U. S. Geological Survey is currently conducting an investigation to estimate values of parameters for two rainfall-loss computation methods used in a commonly used flood-hydrograph model. Estimates of six rainfall-loss parameters are required: four for the Exponential Loss-Rate method and two for the Initial and Uniform Loss-Rate method. Multiple regression analyses on calibrated data from 616 storms at 98 gaged basins are being used to develop parameter-estimating techniques for these six parameters at ungaged basins in Illinois. Parameter-estimating techniques are being verified using data from a total of 105 storms at 35 uncalibrated gaged basins.

  3. Method for estimating solubility parameter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lawson, D. D.; Ingham, J. D.

    1973-01-01

    Semiempirical correlations have been developed between solubility parameters and refractive indices for series of model hydrocarbon compounds and organic polymers. Measurement of intermolecular forces is useful for assessment of material compatibility, glass-transition temperature, and transport properties.

  4. Kalman filter data assimilation: Targeting observations and parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Bellsky, Thomas Kostelich, Eric J.; Mahalov, Alex

    2014-06-15

    This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

  5. Kalman filter data assimilation: targeting observations and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Bellsky, Thomas; Kostelich, Eric J; Mahalov, Alex

    2014-06-01

    This paper studies the effect of targeted observations on state and parameter estimates determined with Kalman filter data assimilation (DA) techniques. We first provide an analytical result demonstrating that targeting observations within the Kalman filter for a linear model can significantly reduce state estimation error as opposed to fixed or randomly located observations. We next conduct observing system simulation experiments for a chaotic model of meteorological interest, where we demonstrate that the local ensemble transform Kalman filter (LETKF) with targeted observations based on largest ensemble variance is skillful in providing more accurate state estimates than the LETKF with randomly located observations. Additionally, we find that a hybrid ensemble Kalman filter parameter estimation method accurately updates model parameters within the targeted observation context to further improve state estimation.

  6. Accurate estimators of correlation functions in Fourier space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sefusatti, E.; Crocce, M.; Scoccimarro, R.; Couchman, H. M. P.

    2016-08-01

    Efficient estimators of Fourier-space statistics for large number of objects rely on fast Fourier transforms (FFTs), which are affected by aliasing from unresolved small-scale modes due to the finite FFT grid. Aliasing takes the form of a sum over images, each of them corresponding to the Fourier content displaced by increasing multiples of the sampling frequency of the grid. These spurious contributions limit the accuracy in the estimation of Fourier-space statistics, and are typically ameliorated by simultaneously increasing grid size and discarding high-frequency modes. This results in inefficient estimates for e.g. the power spectrum when desired systematic biases are well under per cent level. We show that using interlaced grids removes odd images, which include the dominant contribution to aliasing. In addition, we discuss the choice of interpolation kernel used to define density perturbations on the FFT grid and demonstrate that using higher order interpolation kernels than the standard Cloud-In-Cell algorithm results in significant reduction of the remaining images. We show that combining fourth-order interpolation with interlacing gives very accurate Fourier amplitudes and phases of density perturbations. This results in power spectrum and bispectrum estimates that have systematic biases below 0.01 per cent all the way to the Nyquist frequency of the grid, thus maximizing the use of unbiased Fourier coefficients for a given grid size and greatly reducing systematics for applications to large cosmological data sets.

  7. Valid lower bound for all estimators in quantum parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Jing; Yuan, Haidong

    2016-09-01

    The widely used quantum Cramér–Rao bound (QCRB) sets a lower bound for the mean square error of unbiased estimators in quantum parameter estimation, however, in general QCRB is only tight in the asymptotical limit. With a limited number of measurements biased estimators can have a far better performance for which QCRB cannot calibrate. Here we introduce a valid lower bound for all estimators, either biased or unbiased, which can serve as standard of merit for all quantum parameter estimations.

  8. Parameter estimation by genetic algorithms

    SciTech Connect

    Reese, G.M.

    1993-11-01

    Test/Analysis correlation, or structural identification, is a process of reconciling differences in the structural dynamic models constructed analytically (using the finite element (FE) method) and experimentally (from modal test). This is a methodology for assessing the reliability of the computational model, and is very important in building models of high integrity, which may be used as predictive tools in design. Both the analytic and experimental models evaluate the same quantities: the natural frequencies (or eigenvalues, ({omega}{sub i}), and the mode shapes (or eigenvectors, {var_phi}). In this paper, selected frequencies are reconciled in the two models by modifying physical parameters in the FE model. A variety of parameters may be modified such as the stiffness of a joint member or the thickness of a plate. Engineering judgement is required to identify important frequencies, and to characterize the uncertainty of the model design parameters.

  9. A parameter estimation subroutine package

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bierman, G. J.; Nead, M. W.

    1978-01-01

    Linear least squares estimation and regression analyses continue to play a major role in orbit determination and related areas. A library of FORTRAN subroutines were developed to facilitate analyses of a variety of estimation problems. An easy to use, multi-purpose set of algorithms that are reasonably efficient and which use a minimal amount of computer storage are presented. Subroutine inputs, outputs, usage and listings are given, along with examples of how these routines can be used. The routines are compact and efficient and are far superior to the normal equation and Kalman filter data processing algorithms that are often used for least squares analyses.

  10. Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2000-01-01

    A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state-space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than one cycle of the dominant dynamic mode, using no a priori information, with control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements and could be implemented

  11. Real-Time Parameter Estimation in the Frequency Domain

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    1999-01-01

    A method for real-time estimation of parameters in a linear dynamic state space model was developed and studied. The application is aircraft dynamic model parameter estimation from measured data in flight for indirect adaptive or reconfigurable control. Equation error in the frequency domain was used with a recursive Fourier transform for the real-time data analysis. Linear and nonlinear simulation examples and flight test data from the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle HARV) were used to demonstrate that the technique produces accurate model parameter estimates with appropriate error bounds. Parameter estimates converged in less than 1 cycle of the dominant dynamic mode natural frequencies, using control surface inputs measured in flight during ordinary piloted maneuvers. The real-time parameter estimation method has low computational requirements, and could be implemented aboard an aircraft in real time.

  12. A parameter estimation subroutine package

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bierman, G. J.; Nead, M. W.

    1978-01-01

    Linear least squares estimation and regression analyses continue to play a major role in orbit determination and related areas. In this report we document a library of FORTRAN subroutines that have been developed to facilitate analyses of a variety of estimation problems. Our purpose is to present an easy to use, multi-purpose set of algorithms that are reasonably efficient and which use a minimal amount of computer storage. Subroutine inputs, outputs, usage and listings are given along with examples of how these routines can be used. The following outline indicates the scope of this report: Section (1) introduction with reference to background material; Section (2) examples and applications; Section (3) subroutine directory summary; Section (4) the subroutine directory user description with input, output, and usage explained; and Section (5) subroutine FORTRAN listings. The routines are compact and efficient and are far superior to the normal equation and Kalman filter data processing algorithms that are often used for least squares analyses.

  13. Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

    1997-01-01

    An important put of building mathematical models based on measured date is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. An expression is developed for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates when the output residuals are colored. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle. As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, whereas conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

  14. Estimating Infiltration Parameters from Basic Soil Properties

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van de Genachte, G.; Mallants, D.; Ramos, J.; Deckers, J. A.; Feyen, J.

    1996-05-01

    the Ferralsol data show that the parameters of the Green-Ampt and Kostiakov model were estimated relatively accurately (maximum R2 = 0.76). For the Arenosol, use of the second information level together with PCA produced regression models with an R2 value ranging from 0.38 to 0.68. For the Ferralsol, most of the variance was explained by the root content and organic matter content. In the Arenosol plot, the fractions medium and fine sand explained most of the observed variance.

  15. Estimation of ground motion parameters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, David M.; Joyner, W.B.; Oliver, A.A.; Page, R.A.

    1978-01-01

    Strong motion data from western North America for earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5 are examined to provide the basis for estimating peak acceleration, velocity, displacement, and duration as a function of distance for three magnitude classes. A subset of the data (from the San Fernando earthquake) is used to assess the effects of structural size and of geologic site conditions on peak motions recorded at the base of structures. Small but statistically significant differences are observed in peak values of horizontal acceleration, velocity and displacement recorded on soil at the base of small structures compared with values recorded at the base of large structures. The peak acceleration tends to b3e less and the peak velocity and displacement tend to be greater on the average at the base of large structures than at the base of small structures. In the distance range used in the regression analysis (15-100 km) the values of peak horizontal acceleration recorded at soil sites in the San Fernando earthquake are not significantly different from the values recorded at rock sites, but values of peak horizontal velocity and displacement are significantly greater at soil sites than at rock sites. Some consideration is given to the prediction of ground motions at close distances where there are insufficient recorded data points. As might be expected from the lack of data, published relations for predicting peak horizontal acceleration give widely divergent estimates at close distances (three well known relations predict accelerations between 0.33 g to slightly over 1 g at a distance of 5 km from a magnitude 6.5 earthquake). After considering the physics of the faulting process, the few available data close to faults, and the modifying effects of surface topography, at the present time it would be difficult to accept estimates less than about 0.8 g, 110 cm/s, and 40 cm, respectively, for the mean values of peak acceleration, velocity, and displacement at rock sites

  16. Accurate heart rate estimation from camera recording via MUSIC algorithm.

    PubMed

    Fouladi, Seyyed Hamed; Balasingham, Ilangko; Ramstad, Tor Audun; Kansanen, Kimmo

    2015-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an algorithm to extract heart rate frequency from video camera using the Multiple SIgnal Classification (MUSIC) algorithm. This leads to improved accuracy of the estimated heart rate frequency in cases the performance is limited by the number of samples and frame rate. Monitoring vital signs remotely can be exploited for both non-contact physiological and psychological diagnosis. The color variation recorded by ordinary cameras is used for heart rate monitoring. The orthogonality between signal space and noise space is used to find more accurate heart rate frequency in comparison with traditional methods. It is shown via experimental results that the limitation of previous methods can be overcome by using subspace methods. PMID:26738015

  17. Estimating random signal parameters from noisy images with nuisance parameters

    PubMed Central

    Whitaker, Meredith Kathryn; Clarkson, Eric; Barrett, Harrison H.

    2008-01-01

    In a pure estimation task, an object of interest is known to be present, and we wish to determine numerical values for parameters that describe the object. This paper compares the theoretical framework, implementation method, and performance of two estimation procedures. We examined the performance of these estimators for tasks such as estimating signal location, signal volume, signal amplitude, or any combination of these parameters. The signal is embedded in a random background to simulate the effect of nuisance parameters. First, we explore the classical Wiener estimator, which operates linearly on the data and minimizes the ensemble mean-squared error. The results of our performance tests indicate that the Wiener estimator can estimate amplitude and shape once a signal has been located, but is fundamentally unable to locate a signal regardless of the quality of the image. Given these new results on the fundamental limitations of Wiener estimation, we extend our methods to include more complex data processing. We introduce and evaluate a scanning-linear estimator that performs impressively for location estimation. The scanning action of the estimator refers to seeking a solution that maximizes a linear metric, thereby requiring a global-extremum search. The linear metric to be optimized can be derived as a special case of maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation when the likelihood is Gaussian and a slowly varying covariance approximation is made. PMID:18545527

  18. ESTIM: A parameter estimation computer program: Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Hills, R.G.

    1987-08-01

    The computer code, ESTIM, enables subroutine versions of existing simulation codes to be used to estimate model parameters. Nonlinear least squares techniques are used to find the parameter values that result in a best fit between measurements made in the simulation domain and the simulation code's prediction of these measurements. ESTIM utilizes the non-linear least square code DQED (Hanson and Krogh (1982)) to handle the optimization aspects of the estimation problem. In addition to providing weighted least squares estimates, ESTIM provides a propagation of variance analysis. A subroutine version of COYOTE (Gartling (1982)) is provided. The use of ESTIM with COYOTE allows one to estimate the thermal property model parameters that result in the best agreement (in a least squares sense) between internal temperature measurements and COYOTE's predictions of these internal temperature measurements. We demonstrate the use of ESTIM through several example problems which utilize the subroutine version of COYOTE.

  19. Estimation of ground motion parameters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Boore, David M.; Oliver, Adolph A.; Page, Robert A.; Joyner, William B.

    1978-01-01

    Strong motion data from western North America for earthquakes of magnitude greater than 5 are examined to provide the basis for estimating peak acceleration, velocity, displacement, and duration as a function of distance for three magnitude classes. Data from the San Fernando earthquake are examined to assess the effects of associated structures and of geologic site conditions on peak recorded motions. Small but statistically significant differences are observed in peak values of horizontal acceleration, velocity, and displacement recorded on soil at the base of small structures compared with values recorded at the base of large structures. Values of peak horizontal acceleration recorded at soil sites in the San Fernando earthquake are not significantly different from the values recorded at rock sites, but values of peak horizontal velocity and displacement are significantly greater at soil sites than at rock sites. Three recently published relationships for predicting peak horizontal acceleration are compared and discussed. Considerations are reviewed relevant to ground motion predictions at close distances where there are insufficient recorded data points.

  20. Accurate Orientation Estimation Using AHRS under Conditions of Magnetic Distortion

    PubMed Central

    Yadav, Nagesh; Bleakley, Chris

    2014-01-01

    Low cost, compact attitude heading reference systems (AHRS) are now being used to track human body movements in indoor environments by estimation of the 3D orientation of body segments. In many of these systems, heading estimation is achieved by monitoring the strength of the Earth's magnetic field. However, the Earth's magnetic field can be locally distorted due to the proximity of ferrous and/or magnetic objects. Herein, we propose a novel method for accurate 3D orientation estimation using an AHRS, comprised of an accelerometer, gyroscope and magnetometer, under conditions of magnetic field distortion. The system performs online detection and compensation for magnetic disturbances, due to, for example, the presence of ferrous objects. The magnetic distortions are detected by exploiting variations in magnetic dip angle, relative to the gravity vector, and in magnetic strength. We investigate and show the advantages of using both magnetic strength and magnetic dip angle for detecting the presence of magnetic distortions. The correction method is based on a particle filter, which performs the correction using an adaptive cost function and by adapting the variance during particle resampling, so as to place more emphasis on the results of dead reckoning of the gyroscope measurements and less on the magnetometer readings. The proposed method was tested in an indoor environment in the presence of various magnetic distortions and under various accelerations (up to 3 g). In the experiments, the proposed algorithm achieves <2° static peak-to-peak error and <5° dynamic peak-to-peak error, significantly outperforming previous methods. PMID:25347584

  1. Parameter estimation of qubit states with unknown phase parameter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Jun

    2015-02-01

    We discuss a problem of parameter estimation for quantum two-level system, qubit system, in presence of unknown phase parameter. We analyze trade-off relations for mean square errors (MSEs) when estimating relevant parameters with separable measurements based on known precision bounds; the symmetric logarithmic derivative (SLD) Cramér-Rao (CR) bound and Hayashi-Gill-Massar (HGM) bound. We investigate the optimal measurement which attains the HGM bound and discuss its properties. We show that the HGM bound for relevant parameters can be attained asymptotically by using some fraction of given n quantum states to estimate the phase parameter. We also discuss the Holevo bound which can be attained asymptotically by a collective measurement.

  2. Cosmological parameter estimation using Particle Swarm Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Prasad, J.; Souradeep, T.

    2014-03-01

    Constraining parameters of a theoretical model from observational data is an important exercise in cosmology. There are many theoretically motivated models, which demand greater number of cosmological parameters than the standard model of cosmology uses, and make the problem of parameter estimation challenging. It is a common practice to employ Bayesian formalism for parameter estimation for which, in general, likelihood surface is probed. For the standard cosmological model with six parameters, likelihood surface is quite smooth and does not have local maxima, and sampling based methods like Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method are quite successful. However, when there are a large number of parameters or the likelihood surface is not smooth, other methods may be more effective. In this paper, we have demonstrated application of another method inspired from artificial intelligence, called Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) for estimating cosmological parameters from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) data taken from the WMAP satellite.

  3. Parameter Estimation of Partial Differential Equation Models.

    PubMed

    Xun, Xiaolei; Cao, Jiguo; Mallick, Bani; Carroll, Raymond J; Maity, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Partial differential equation (PDE) models are commonly used to model complex dynamic systems in applied sciences such as biology and finance. The forms of these PDE models are usually proposed by experts based on their prior knowledge and understanding of the dynamic system. Parameters in PDE models often have interesting scientific interpretations, but their values are often unknown, and need to be estimated from the measurements of the dynamic system in the present of measurement errors. Most PDEs used in practice have no analytic solutions, and can only be solved with numerical methods. Currently, methods for estimating PDE parameters require repeatedly solving PDEs numerically under thousands of candidate parameter values, and thus the computational load is high. In this article, we propose two methods to estimate parameters in PDE models: a parameter cascading method and a Bayesian approach. In both methods, the underlying dynamic process modeled with the PDE model is represented via basis function expansion. For the parameter cascading method, we develop two nested levels of optimization to estimate the PDE parameters. For the Bayesian method, we develop a joint model for data and the PDE, and develop a novel hierarchical model allowing us to employ Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques to make posterior inference. Simulation studies show that the Bayesian method and parameter cascading method are comparable, and both outperform other available methods in terms of estimation accuracy. The two methods are demonstrated by estimating parameters in a PDE model from LIDAR data. PMID:24363476

  4. Practical Aspects of the Equation-Error Method for Aircraft Parameter Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene a.

    2006-01-01

    Various practical aspects of the equation-error approach to aircraft parameter estimation were examined. The analysis was based on simulated flight data from an F-16 nonlinear simulation, with realistic noise sequences added to the computed aircraft responses. This approach exposes issues related to the parameter estimation techniques and results, because the true parameter values are known for simulation data. The issues studied include differentiating noisy time series, maximum likelihood parameter estimation, biases in equation-error parameter estimates, accurate computation of estimated parameter error bounds, comparisons of equation-error parameter estimates with output-error parameter estimates, analyzing data from multiple maneuvers, data collinearity, and frequency-domain methods.

  5. Parameter Estimation in Atmospheric Data Sets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wenig, Mark; Colarco, Peter

    2004-01-01

    In this study the structure tensor technique is used to estimate dynamical parameters in atmospheric data sets. The structure tensor is a common tool for estimating motion in image sequences. This technique can be extended to estimate other dynamical parameters such as diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. As a test scenario this technique will be applied to modeled dust data. In this case vertically integrated dust concentrations were used to derive wind information. Those results can be compared to the wind vector fields which served as input to the model. Based on this analysis, a method to compute atmospheric data parameter fields will be presented. .

  6. Parameter estimation in complex flows with chemical reactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Daniel J.

    The estimation of unknown parameters in engineering and scientific models continues to be of great importance in order to validate them to available experimental data. These parameters of concern cannot be known beforehand, but must be measured experimentally, variables such as chemical species concentrations, pressures, or temperatures as examples. Particularly, in chemically reacting flows, the estimation of kinetic rate parameters from experimentally determined values is in great demand and not well understood. New parameter optimization algorithms have been developed from a Gauss-Newton formulation for the estimation of reaction rate parameters in several different complex flow applications. A zero-dimensional parameter estimation methodology was used in conjunction with a parameter sensitivity study and then applied to three-dimensional flow models. This new parameter estimation technique was applied to three-dimensional models for chemical vapor deposition of silicon carbide and gallium arsenide semiconductor materials. The parameter estimation for silicon carbide for several different operating points was in close agreement to experiment. The parameter estimation for gallium arsenide proved to be very accurate, being within four percent of the experimental data. New parameter estimation algorithms were likewise created for a three-dimensional multiphase model for methanol spray combustion. The kinetic rate parameters delivered results in close agreement to experiment for profiles of combustion species products. In addition, a new parameter estimation method for the determination of spray droplet sizes and velocities is presented. The results for methanol combustion chemical species profiles are in good agreement to experiment for several different droplet sizes. Lastly, the parameter estimation method was extended to a bio-kinetic application, namely mitochondrial cells, that are cardiac or respiratory cells found in animals and humans. The results for the

  7. Autonomous terrain parameter estimation for wheeled vehicles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ray, Laura E.

    2008-04-01

    This paper reports a methodology for inferring terrain parameters from estimated terrain forces in order to allow wheeled autonomous vehicles to assess mobility in real-time. Terrain force estimation can be used to infer the ability to accelerate, climb, or tow a load independent of the underlying terrain model. When a terrain model is available, physical soil properties and stress distribution parameters that relate to mobility are inferred from vehicle-terrain forces using multiple-model estimation. The approach uses Bayesian statistics to select the most likely terrain parameters from a set of hypotheses, given estimated terrain forces. The hypotheses are based on the extensive literature of soil properties for soils with cohesions from 1 - 70 kPa. Terrain parameter estimation is subject to mathematical uniqueness of the net forces resulting from vehicle-terrain interaction for a given set of terrain parameters; uniqueness properties are characterized in the paper motivating the approach. Terrain force and parameter estimation requires proprioceptive sensors - accelerometers, rate gyros, wheel speeds, motor currents, and ground speed. Simulation results demonstrate efficacy of the method on three terrains - low cohesion sand, sandy loam, and high cohesion clay, with parameter convergence times as low as .02 sec. The method exhibits an ability to interpolate between hypotheses when no single hypothesis adequately characterizes the terrain.

  8. Estimating Geophysical Parameters From Gravity Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sjogren, William L.; Wimberly, Ravenel N.

    1988-01-01

    ORBSIM program developed for accurate extraction of parameters of geophysical models from Doppler-radio-tracking data acquired from orbiting planetary spacecraft. Model of proposed planetary structure used in numerical integration along simulated trajectories of spacecraft around primary body. Written in FORTRAN 77.

  9. MODFLOW-style parameters in underdetermined parameter estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    D'Oria, M.; Fienen, M.N.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the use of MODFLOW-Style parameters in the numerical codes MODFLOW-2005 and MODFLOW-2005-Adjoint for the definition of variables in the Layer Property Flow package. Parameters are a useful tool to represent aquifer properties in both codes and are the only option available in the adjoint version. Moreover, for overdetermined parameter estimation problems, the parameter approach for model input can make data input easier. We found that if each estimable parameter is defined by one parameter, the codes require a large computational effort and substantial gains in efficiency are achieved by removing logical comparison of character strings that represent the names and types of the parameters. An alternative formulation already available in the current implementation of the code can also alleviate the efficiency degradation due to character comparisons in the special case of distributed parameters defined through multiplication matrices. The authors also hope that lessons learned in analyzing the performance of the MODFLOW family codes will be enlightening to developers of other Fortran implementations of numerical codes. ?? 2011, National Ground Water Association.

  10. MODFLOW-style parameters in underdetermined parameter estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    D'Oria, Marco D.; Fienen, Michael N.

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the use of MODFLOW-Style parameters in the numerical codes MODFLOW_2005 and MODFLOW_2005-Adjoint for the definition of variables in the Layer Property Flow package. Parameters are a useful tool to represent aquifer properties in both codes and are the only option available in the adjoint version. Moreover, for overdetermined parameter estimation problems, the parameter approach for model input can make data input easier. We found that if each estimable parameter is defined by one parameter, the codes require a large computational effort and substantial gains in efficiency are achieved by removing logical comparison of character strings that represent the names and types of the parameters. An alternative formulation already available in the current implementation of the code can also alleviate the efficiency degradation due to character comparisons in the special case of distributed parameters defined through multiplication matrices. The authors also hope that lessons learned in analyzing the performance of the MODFLOW family codes will be enlightening to developers of other Fortran implementations of numerical codes.

  11. MODFLOW-Style parameters in underdetermined parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    D'Oria, Marco; Fienen, Michael N

    2012-01-01

    In this article, we discuss the use of MODFLOW-Style parameters in the numerical codes MODFLOW_2005 and MODFLOW_2005-Adjoint for the definition of variables in the Layer Property Flow package. Parameters are a useful tool to represent aquifer properties in both codes and are the only option available in the adjoint version. Moreover, for overdetermined parameter estimation problems, the parameter approach for model input can make data input easier. We found that if each estimable parameter is defined by one parameter, the codes require a large computational effort and substantial gains in efficiency are achieved by removing logical comparison of character strings that represent the names and types of the parameters. An alternative formulation already available in the current implementation of the code can also alleviate the efficiency degradation due to character comparisons in the special case of distributed parameters defined through multiplication matrices. The authors also hope that lessons learned in analyzing the performance of the MODFLOW family codes will be enlightening to developers of other Fortran implementations of numerical codes. PMID:21352210

  12. Parameter adaptive estimation of random processes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Caglayan, A. K.; Vanlandingham, H. F.

    1975-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the parameter adaptive least squares estimation of random processes. The main result is a general representation theorem for the conditional expectation of a random variable on a product probability space. Using this theorem along with the general likelihood ratio expression, the least squares estimate of the process is found in terms of the parameter conditioned estimates. The stochastic differential for the a posteriori probability and the stochastic differential equation for the a posteriori density are found by using simple stochastic calculus on the representations obtained. The results are specialized to the case when the parameter has a discrete distribution. The results can be used to construct an implementable recursive estimator for certain types of nonlinear filtering problems. This is illustrated by some simple examples.

  13. GEODYN- ORBITAL AND GEODETIC PARAMETER ESTIMATION

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Putney, B.

    1994-01-01

    The Orbital and Geodetic Parameter Estimation program, GEODYN, possesses the capability to estimate that set of orbital elements, station positions, measurement biases, and a set of force model parameters such that the orbital tracking data from multiple arcs of multiple satellites best fits the entire set of estimation parameters. The estimation problem can be divided into two parts: the orbit prediction problem, and the parameter estimation problem. GEODYN solves these two problems by employing Cowell's method for integrating the orbit and a Bayesian least squares statistical estimation procedure for parameter estimation. GEODYN has found a wide range of applications including determination of definitive orbits, tracking instrumentation calibration, satellite operational predictions, and geodetic parameter estimation, such as the estimations for global networks of tracking stations. The orbit prediction problem may be briefly described as calculating for some later epoch the new conditions of state for the satellite, given a set of initial conditions of state for some epoch, and the disturbing forces affecting the motion of the satellite. The user is required to supply only the initial conditions of state and GEODYN will provide the forcing function and integrate the equations of motion of the satellite. Additionally, GEODYN performs time and coordinate transformations to insure the continuity of operations. Cowell's method of numerical integration is used to solve the satellite equations of motion and the variational partials for force model parameters which are to be adjusted. This method uses predictor-corrector formulas for the equations of motion and corrector formulas only for the variational partials. The parameter estimation problem is divided into three separate parts: 1) instrument measurement modeling and partial derivative computation, 2) data error correction, and 3) statistical estimation of the parameters. Since all of the measurements modeled by

  14. An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

    1989-01-01

    The method proposed for estimating sensitivity derivatives is based on the Recursive Quadratic Programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This method is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RQP algorithm. Initial testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity.

  15. Fast and Accurate Learning When Making Discrete Numerical Estimates.

    PubMed

    Sanborn, Adam N; Beierholm, Ulrik R

    2016-04-01

    Many everyday estimation tasks have an inherently discrete nature, whether the task is counting objects (e.g., a number of paint buckets) or estimating discretized continuous variables (e.g., the number of paint buckets needed to paint a room). While Bayesian inference is often used for modeling estimates made along continuous scales, discrete numerical estimates have not received as much attention, despite their common everyday occurrence. Using two tasks, a numerosity task and an area estimation task, we invoke Bayesian decision theory to characterize how people learn discrete numerical distributions and make numerical estimates. Across three experiments with novel stimulus distributions we found that participants fell between two common decision functions for converting their uncertain representation into a response: drawing a sample from their posterior distribution and taking the maximum of their posterior distribution. While this was consistent with the decision function found in previous work using continuous estimation tasks, surprisingly the prior distributions learned by participants in our experiments were much more adaptive: When making continuous estimates, participants have required thousands of trials to learn bimodal priors, but in our tasks participants learned discrete bimodal and even discrete quadrimodal priors within a few hundred trials. This makes discrete numerical estimation tasks good testbeds for investigating how people learn and make estimates. PMID:27070155

  16. Fast and Accurate Learning When Making Discrete Numerical Estimates.

    PubMed

    Sanborn, Adam N; Beierholm, Ulrik R

    2016-04-01

    Many everyday estimation tasks have an inherently discrete nature, whether the task is counting objects (e.g., a number of paint buckets) or estimating discretized continuous variables (e.g., the number of paint buckets needed to paint a room). While Bayesian inference is often used for modeling estimates made along continuous scales, discrete numerical estimates have not received as much attention, despite their common everyday occurrence. Using two tasks, a numerosity task and an area estimation task, we invoke Bayesian decision theory to characterize how people learn discrete numerical distributions and make numerical estimates. Across three experiments with novel stimulus distributions we found that participants fell between two common decision functions for converting their uncertain representation into a response: drawing a sample from their posterior distribution and taking the maximum of their posterior distribution. While this was consistent with the decision function found in previous work using continuous estimation tasks, surprisingly the prior distributions learned by participants in our experiments were much more adaptive: When making continuous estimates, participants have required thousands of trials to learn bimodal priors, but in our tasks participants learned discrete bimodal and even discrete quadrimodal priors within a few hundred trials. This makes discrete numerical estimation tasks good testbeds for investigating how people learn and make estimates.

  17. Fast and Accurate Learning When Making Discrete Numerical Estimates

    PubMed Central

    Sanborn, Adam N.; Beierholm, Ulrik R.

    2016-01-01

    Many everyday estimation tasks have an inherently discrete nature, whether the task is counting objects (e.g., a number of paint buckets) or estimating discretized continuous variables (e.g., the number of paint buckets needed to paint a room). While Bayesian inference is often used for modeling estimates made along continuous scales, discrete numerical estimates have not received as much attention, despite their common everyday occurrence. Using two tasks, a numerosity task and an area estimation task, we invoke Bayesian decision theory to characterize how people learn discrete numerical distributions and make numerical estimates. Across three experiments with novel stimulus distributions we found that participants fell between two common decision functions for converting their uncertain representation into a response: drawing a sample from their posterior distribution and taking the maximum of their posterior distribution. While this was consistent with the decision function found in previous work using continuous estimation tasks, surprisingly the prior distributions learned by participants in our experiments were much more adaptive: When making continuous estimates, participants have required thousands of trials to learn bimodal priors, but in our tasks participants learned discrete bimodal and even discrete quadrimodal priors within a few hundred trials. This makes discrete numerical estimation tasks good testbeds for investigating how people learn and make estimates. PMID:27070155

  18. Estimation of saxophone reed parameters during playing.

    PubMed

    Muñoz Arancón, Alberto; Gazengel, Bruno; Dalmont, Jean-Pierre; Conan, Ewen

    2016-05-01

    An approach for the estimation of single reed parameters during playing, using an instrumented mouthpiece and an iterative method, is presented. Different physical models describing the reed tip movement are tested in the estimation method. The uncertainties of the sensors installed on the mouthpiece and the limits of the estimation method are studied. A tenor saxophone reed is mounted on this mouthpiece connected to a cylinder, played by a musician, and characterized at different dynamic levels. Results show that the method can be used to estimate the reed parameters with a small error for low and medium sound levels (piano and mezzoforte dynamic levels). The analysis reveals that the complexity of the physical model describing the reed behavior must increase with dynamic levels. For medium level dynamics, the most relevant physical model assumes that the reed is an oscillator with non-linear stiffness and damping, the effect of mass (inertia) being very small. PMID:27250168

  19. LISA Parameter Estimation using Numerical Merger Waveforms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thorpe, J. I.; McWilliams, S.; Baker, J.

    2008-01-01

    Coalescing supermassive black holes are expected to provide the strongest sources for gravitational radiation detected by LISA. Recent advances in numerical relativity provide a detailed description of the waveforms of such signals. We present a preliminary study of LISA's sensitivity to waveform parameters using a hybrid numerical/analytic waveform describing the coalescence of two equal-mass, nonspinning black holes. The Synthetic LISA software package is used to simulate the instrument response and the Fisher information matrix method is used to estimate errors in the waveform parameters. Initial results indicate that inclusion of the merger signal can significantly improve the precision of some parameter estimates. For example, the median parameter errors for an ensemble of systems with total redshifted mass of 10(exp 6) deg M solar mass at a redshift of z is approximately 1 were found to decrease by a factor of slightly more than two when the merger was included.

  20. Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb, we incorporated Pb-contaminated soils or Pb acetate into diets for Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica), fed the quail for 15 days, and ...

  1. BIOACCESSIBILITY TESTS ACCURATELY ESTIMATE BIOAVAILABILITY OF LEAD TO QUAIL

    EPA Science Inventory

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, we measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contami...

  2. Regularized estimation of Euler pole parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aktuğ, Bahadir; Yildirim, Ömer

    2013-07-01

    Euler vectors provide a unified framework to quantify the relative or absolute motions of tectonic plates through various geodetic and geophysical observations. With the advent of space geodesy, Euler parameters of several relatively small plates have been determined through the velocities derived from the space geodesy observations. However, the available data are usually insufficient in number and quality to estimate both the Euler vector components and the Euler pole parameters reliably. Since Euler vectors are defined globally in an Earth-centered Cartesian frame, estimation with the limited geographic coverage of the local/regional geodetic networks usually results in highly correlated vector components. In the case of estimating the Euler pole parameters directly, the situation is even worse, and the position of the Euler pole is nearly collinear with the magnitude of the rotation rate. In this study, a new method, which consists of an analytical derivation of the covariance matrix of the Euler vector in an ideal network configuration, is introduced and a regularized estimation method specifically tailored for estimating the Euler vector is presented. The results show that the proposed method outperforms the least squares estimation in terms of the mean squared error.

  3. A novel multistage estimation of signal parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kumar, Rajendra

    1990-01-01

    A multistage estimation scheme is presented for estimating the parameters of a received carrier signal possibly phase-modulated by unknown data and experiencing very high Doppler, Doppler rate, etc. Such a situation arises, for example, in the case of the Global Positioning Systems (GPS). In the proposed scheme, the first-stage estimator operates as a coarse estimator of the frequency and its derivatives, resulting in higher rms estimation errors but with a relatively small probability of the frequency estimation error exceeding one-half of the sampling frequency (an event termed cycle slip). The second stage of the estimator operates on the error signal available from the first stage, refining the overall estimates, and in the process also reduces the number of cycle slips. The first-stage algorithm is a modified least-squares algorithm operating on the differential signal model and referred to as differential least squares (DLS). The second-stage algorithm is an extended Kalman filter, which yields the estimate of the phase as well as refining the frequency estimate. A major advantage of the is a reduction in the threshold for the received carrier power-to-noise power spectral density ratio (CNR) as compared with the threshold achievable by either of the algorithms alone.

  4. ZASPE: Zonal Atmospheric Stellar Parameters Estimator

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Brahm, Rafael; Jordan, Andres; Hartman, Joel; Bakos, Gaspar

    2016-07-01

    ZASPE (Zonal Atmospheric Stellar Parameters Estimator) computes the atmospheric stellar parameters (Teff, log(g), [Fe/H] and vsin(i)) from echelle spectra via least squares minimization with a pre-computed library of synthetic spectra. The minimization is performed only in the most sensitive spectral zones to changes in the atmospheric parameters. The uncertainities and covariances computed by ZASPE assume that the principal source of error is the systematic missmatch between the observed spectrum and the sythetic one that produces the best fit. ZASPE requires a grid of synthetic spectra and can use any pre-computed library minor modifications.

  5. Estimation of Time-Varying Pilot Model Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zaal, Peter M. T.; Sweet, Barbara T.

    2011-01-01

    Human control behavior is rarely completely stationary over time due to fatigue or loss of attention. In addition, there are many control tasks for which human operators need to adapt their control strategy to vehicle dynamics that vary in time. In previous studies on the identification of time-varying pilot control behavior wavelets were used to estimate the time-varying frequency response functions. However, the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters was not considered. Estimating these parameters can be a valuable tool for the quantification of different aspects of human time-varying manual control. This paper presents two methods for the estimation of time-varying pilot model parameters, a two-step method using wavelets and a windowed maximum likelihood estimation method. The methods are evaluated using simulations of a closed-loop control task with time-varying pilot equalization and vehicle dynamics. Simulations are performed with and without remnant. Both methods give accurate results when no pilot remnant is present. The wavelet transform is very sensitive to measurement noise, resulting in inaccurate parameter estimates when considerable pilot remnant is present. Maximum likelihood estimation is less sensitive to pilot remnant, but cannot detect fast changes in pilot control behavior.

  6. New approaches to estimation of magnetotelluric parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Egbert, G.D.

    1991-01-01

    Fully efficient robust data processing procedures were developed and tested for single station and remote reference magnetotelluric (Mr) data. Substantial progress was made on development, testing and comparison of optimal procedures for single station data. A principal finding of this phase of the research was that the simplest robust procedures can be more heavily biased by noise in the (input) magnetic fields, than standard least squares estimates. To deal with this difficulty we developed a robust processing scheme which combined the regression M-estimate with coherence presorting. This hybrid approach greatly improves impedance estimates, particularly in the low signal-to-noise conditions often encountered in the dead band'' (0.1--0.0 hz). The methods, and the results of comparisons of various single station estimators are described in detail. Progress was made on developing methods for estimating static distortion parameters, and for testing hypotheses about the underlying dimensionality of the geological section.

  7. A Method to Accurately Estimate the Muscular Torques of Human Wearing Exoskeletons by Torque Sensors

    PubMed Central

    Hwang, Beomsoo; Jeon, Doyoung

    2015-01-01

    In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user’s muscular effort is important to recognize the user’s motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users’ muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user’s limb accurately from the measured torque. The user’s limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user’s muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions. PMID:25860074

  8. A method to accurately estimate the muscular torques of human wearing exoskeletons by torque sensors.

    PubMed

    Hwang, Beomsoo; Jeon, Doyoung

    2015-04-09

    In exoskeletal robots, the quantification of the user's muscular effort is important to recognize the user's motion intentions and evaluate motor abilities. In this paper, we attempt to estimate users' muscular efforts accurately using joint torque sensor which contains the measurements of dynamic effect of human body such as the inertial, Coriolis, and gravitational torques as well as torque by active muscular effort. It is important to extract the dynamic effects of the user's limb accurately from the measured torque. The user's limb dynamics are formulated and a convenient method of identifying user-specific parameters is suggested for estimating the user's muscular torque in robotic exoskeletons. Experiments were carried out on a wheelchair-integrated lower limb exoskeleton, EXOwheel, which was equipped with torque sensors in the hip and knee joints. The proposed methods were evaluated by 10 healthy participants during body weight-supported gait training. The experimental results show that the torque sensors are to estimate the muscular torque accurately in cases of relaxed and activated muscle conditions.

  9. Effective Echo Detection and Accurate Orbit Estimation Algorithms for Space Debris Radar

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isoda, Kentaro; Sakamoto, Takuya; Sato, Toru

    Orbit estimation of space debris, objects of no inherent value orbiting the earth, is a task that is important for avoiding collisions with spacecraft. The Kamisaibara Spaceguard Center radar system was built in 2004 as the first radar facility in Japan devoted to the observation of space debris. In order to detect the smaller debris, coherent integration is effective in improving SNR (Signal-to-Noise Ratio). However, it is difficult to apply coherent integration to real data because the motions of the targets are unknown. An effective algorithm is proposed for echo detection and orbit estimation of the faint echoes from space debris. The characteristics of the evaluation function are utilized by the algorithm. Experiments show the proposed algorithm improves SNR by 8.32dB and enables estimation of orbital parameters accurately to allow for re-tracking with a single radar.

  10. Estimating physiological skin parameters from hyperspectral signatures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vyas, Saurabh; Banerjee, Amit; Burlina, Philippe

    2013-05-01

    We describe an approach for estimating human skin parameters, such as melanosome concentration, collagen concentration, oxygen saturation, and blood volume, using hyperspectral radiometric measurements (signatures) obtained from in vivo skin. We use a computational model based on Kubelka-Munk theory and the Fresnel equations. This model forward maps the skin parameters to a corresponding multiband reflectance spectra. Machine-learning-based regression is used to generate the inverse map, and hence estimate skin parameters from hyperspectral signatures. We test our methods using synthetic and in vivo skin signatures obtained in the visible through the short wave infrared domains from 24 patients of both genders and Caucasian, Asian, and African American ethnicities. Performance validation shows promising results: good agreement with the ground truth and well-established physiological precepts. These methods have potential use in the characterization of skin abnormalities and in minimally-invasive prescreening of malignant skin cancers.

  11. NEFDS contamination model parameter estimation of powder contaminated surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbs, Timothy J.; Messinger, David W.

    2016-05-01

    Hyperspectral signatures of powdered contaminated surfaces are challenging to characterize due to intimate mixing between materials. Most radiometric models have difficulties in recreating these signatures due to non-linear interactions between particles with different physical properties. The Nonconventional Exploitation Factors Data System (NEFDS) Contamination Model is capable of recreating longwave hyperspectral signatures at any contamination mixture amount, but only for a limited selection of materials currently in the database. A method has been developed to invert the NEFDS model and perform parameter estimation on emissivity measurements from a variety of powdered materials on substrates. This model was chosen for its potential to accurately determine contamination coverage density as a parameter in the inverted model. Emissivity data were measured using a Designs and Prototypes fourier transform infrared spectrometer model 102 for different levels of contamination. Temperature emissivity separation was performed to convert data from measure radiance to estimated surface emissivity. Emissivity curves were then input into the inverted model and parameters were estimated for each spectral curve. A comparison of measured data with extrapolated model emissivity curves using estimated parameter values assessed performance of the inverted NEFDS contamination model. This paper will present the initial results of the experimental campaign and the estimated surface coverage parameters.

  12. Target parameter and error estimation using magnetometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Norton, S. J.; Witten, A. J.; Won, I. J.; Taylor, D.

    The problem of locating and identifying buried unexploded ordnance from magnetometry measurements is addressed within the context of maximum likelihood estimation. In this approach, the magnetostatic theory is used to develop data templates, which represent the modeled magnetic response of a buried ferrous object of arbitrary location, iron content, size, shape, and orientation. It is assumed that these objects are characterized both by a magnetic susceptibility representing their passive response to the earth's magnetic field and by a three-dimensional magnetization vector representing a permanent dipole magnetization. Analytical models were derived for four types of targets: spheres, spherical shells, ellipsoids, and ellipsoidal shells. The models can be used to quantify the Cramer-Rao (error) bounds on the parameter estimates. These bounds give the minimum variance in the estimated parameters as a function of measurement signal-to-noise ratio, spatial sampling, and target characteristics. For cases where analytic expressions for the Cramer-Rao bounds can be derived, these expressions prove quite useful in establishing optimal sampling strategies. Analytic expressions for various Cramer-Rao bounds have been developed for spherical- and spherical shell-type objects. An maximum likelihood estimation algorithm has been developed and tested on data acquired at the Magnetic Test Range at the Naval Explosive Ordnance Disposal Tech Center in Indian Head, Maryland. This algorithm estimates seven target parameters. These parameters are the three Cartesian coordinates (x, y, z) identifying the buried ordnance's location, the three Cartesian components of the permanent dipole magnetization vector, and the equivalent radius of the ordnance assuming it is a passive solid iron sphere.

  13. Global parameter estimation methods for stochastic biochemical systems

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    described in this work have provided an effective and practical approach in the estimation of kinetic parameters of stochastic systems from either sparse or dense cell population data. Nevertheless, similar to kinetic parameter estimation in other modelling frameworks, not all parameters can be estimated accurately, which is a common problem arising from the lack of complete parameter identifiability from the available data. PMID:20691037

  14. Cosmological parameter estimation: impact of CMB aberration

    SciTech Connect

    Catena, Riccardo; Notari, Alessio E-mail: notari@ffn.ub.es

    2013-04-01

    The peculiar motion of an observer with respect to the CMB rest frame induces an apparent deflection of the observed CMB photons, i.e. aberration, and a shift in their frequency, i.e. Doppler effect. Both effects distort the temperature multipoles a{sub lm}'s via a mixing matrix at any l. The common lore when performing a CMB based cosmological parameter estimation is to consider that Doppler affects only the l = 1 multipole, and neglect any other corrections. In this paper we reconsider the validity of this assumption, showing that it is actually not robust when sky cuts are included to model CMB foreground contaminations. Assuming a simple fiducial cosmological model with five parameters, we simulated CMB temperature maps of the sky in a WMAP-like and in a Planck-like experiment and added aberration and Doppler effects to the maps. We then analyzed with a MCMC in a Bayesian framework the maps with and without aberration and Doppler effects in order to assess the ability of reconstructing the parameters of the fiducial model. We find that, depending on the specific realization of the simulated data, the parameters can be biased up to one standard deviation for WMAP and almost two standard deviations for Planck. Therefore we conclude that in general it is not a solid assumption to neglect aberration in a CMB based cosmological parameter estimation.

  15. Multiple emitter location and signal parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schmidt, R. O.

    1986-03-01

    Multiple signal classification (MUSIC) techniques involved in determining the parameters of multiple wavefronts arriving at an antenna array are discussed. A MUSIC algorithm is described, which provides asymptotically unbiased estimates of (1) the number of signals, (2) directions of arrival (or emitter locations), (3) strengths and cross correlations among the incident waveforms, and (4) the strength of noise/interference. The example of the use of the algorithm as a multiple frequency estimator operating on time series is examined. Comparisons of this method with methods based on maximum likelihood and maximum entropy, as well as conventional beamforming, are presented.

  16. Accurate feature detection and estimation using nonlinear and multiresolution analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rudin, Leonid; Osher, Stanley

    1994-11-01

    A program for feature detection and estimation using nonlinear and multiscale analysis was completed. The state-of-the-art edge detection was combined with multiscale restoration (as suggested by the first author) and robust results in the presence of noise were obtained. Successful applications to numerous images of interest to DOD were made. Also, a new market in the criminal justice field was developed, based in part, on this work.

  17. Simulation model accurately estimates total dietary iodine intake.

    PubMed

    Verkaik-Kloosterman, Janneke; van 't Veer, Pieter; Ocké, Marga C

    2009-07-01

    One problem with estimating iodine intake is the lack of detailed data about the discretionary use of iodized kitchen salt and iodization of industrially processed foods. To be able to take into account these uncertainties in estimating iodine intake, a simulation model combining deterministic and probabilistic techniques was developed. Data from the Dutch National Food Consumption Survey (1997-1998) and an update of the Food Composition database were used to simulate 3 different scenarios: Dutch iodine legislation until July 2008, Dutch iodine legislation after July 2008, and a potential future situation. Results from studies measuring iodine excretion during the former legislation are comparable with the iodine intakes estimated with our model. For both former and current legislation, iodine intake was adequate for a large part of the Dutch population, but some young children (<5%) were at risk of intakes that were too low. In the scenario of a potential future situation using lower salt iodine levels, the percentage of the Dutch population with intakes that were too low increased (almost 10% of young children). To keep iodine intakes adequate, salt iodine levels should not be decreased, unless many more foods will contain iodized salt. Our model should be useful in predicting the effects of food reformulation or fortification on habitual nutrient intakes.

  18. Parameter estimation uncertainty: Comparing apples and apples?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hart, D.; Yoon, H.; McKenna, S. A.

    2012-12-01

    Given a highly parameterized ground water model in which the conceptual model of the heterogeneity is stochastic, an ensemble of inverse calibrations from multiple starting points (MSP) provides an ensemble of calibrated parameters and follow-on transport predictions. However, the multiple calibrations are computationally expensive. Parameter estimation uncertainty can also be modeled by decomposing the parameterization into a solution space and a null space. From a single calibration (single starting point) a single set of parameters defining the solution space can be extracted. The solution space is held constant while Monte Carlo sampling of the parameter set covering the null space creates an ensemble of the null space parameter set. A recently developed null-space Monte Carlo (NSMC) method combines the calibration solution space parameters with the ensemble of null space parameters, creating sets of calibration-constrained parameters for input to the follow-on transport predictions. Here, we examine the consistency between probabilistic ensembles of parameter estimates and predictions using the MSP calibration and the NSMC approaches. A highly parameterized model of the Culebra dolomite previously developed for the WIPP project in New Mexico is used as the test case. A total of 100 estimated fields are retained from the MSP approach and the ensemble of results defining the model fit to the data, the reproduction of the variogram model and prediction of an advective travel time are compared to the same results obtained using NSMC. We demonstrate that the NSMC fields based on a single calibration model can be significantly constrained by the calibrated solution space and the resulting distribution of advective travel times is biased toward the travel time from the single calibrated field. To overcome this, newly proposed strategies to employ a multiple calibration-constrained NSMC approach (M-NSMC) are evaluated. Comparison of the M-NSMC and MSP methods suggests

  19. CosmoSIS: Modular cosmological parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Zuntz, J.; Paterno, M.; Jennings, E.; Rudd, D.; Manzotti, A.; Dodelson, S.; Bridle, S.; Sehrish, S.; Kowalkowski, J.

    2015-06-09

    Cosmological parameter estimation is entering a new era. Large collaborations need to coordinate high-stakes analyses using multiple methods; furthermore such analyses have grown in complexity due to sophisticated models of cosmology and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we argue that modularity is the key to addressing these challenges: calculations should be broken up into interchangeable modular units with inputs and outputs clearly defined. Here we present a new framework for cosmological parameter estimation, CosmoSIS, designed to connect together, share, and advance development of inference tools across the community. We describe the modules already available in CosmoSIS, including CAMB, Planck, cosmic shear calculations, and a suite of samplers. Lastly, we illustrate it using demonstration code that you can run out-of-the-box with the installer available at http://bitbucket.org/joezuntz/cosmosis

  20. CosmoSIS: Modular cosmological parameter estimation

    DOE PAGES

    Zuntz, J.; Paterno, M.; Jennings, E.; Rudd, D.; Manzotti, A.; Dodelson, S.; Bridle, S.; Sehrish, S.; Kowalkowski, J.

    2015-06-09

    Cosmological parameter estimation is entering a new era. Large collaborations need to coordinate high-stakes analyses using multiple methods; furthermore such analyses have grown in complexity due to sophisticated models of cosmology and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we argue that modularity is the key to addressing these challenges: calculations should be broken up into interchangeable modular units with inputs and outputs clearly defined. Here we present a new framework for cosmological parameter estimation, CosmoSIS, designed to connect together, share, and advance development of inference tools across the community. We describe the modules already available in CosmoSIS, including CAMB, Planck, cosmicmore » shear calculations, and a suite of samplers. Lastly, we illustrate it using demonstration code that you can run out-of-the-box with the installer available at http://bitbucket.org/joezuntz/cosmosis« less

  1. Renal parameter estimates in unrestrained dogs

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rader, R. D.; Stevens, C. M.

    1974-01-01

    A mathematical formulation has been developed to describe the hemodynamic parameters of a conceptualized kidney model. The model was developed by considering regional pressure drops and regional storage capacities within the renal vasculature. Estimation of renal artery compliance, pre- and postglomerular resistance, and glomerular filtration pressure is feasible by considering mean levels and time derivatives of abdominal aortic pressure and renal artery flow. Changes in the smooth muscle tone of the renal vessels induced by exogenous angiotensin amide, acetylcholine, and by the anaesthetic agent halothane were estimated by use of the model. By employing totally implanted telemetry, the technique was applied on unrestrained dogs to measure renal resistive and compliant parameters while the dogs were being subjected to obedience training, to avoidance reaction, and to unrestrained caging.

  2. Generalized REGression Package for Nonlinear Parameter Estimation

    1995-05-15

    GREG computes modal (maximum-posterior-density) and interval estimates of the parameters in a user-provided Fortran subroutine MODEL, using a user-provided vector OBS of single-response observations or matrix OBS of multiresponse observations. GREG can also select the optimal next experiment from a menu of simulated candidates, so as to minimize the volume of the parametric inference region based on the resulting augmented data set.

  3. Estimation of regional pulmonary perfusion parameters from microfocal angiograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clough, Anne V.; Al-Tinawi, Amir; Linehan, John H.; Dawson, Christopher A.

    1995-05-01

    An important application of functional imaging is the estimation of regional blood flow and volume using residue detection of vascular indicators. An indicator-dilution model applicable to tissue regions distal from the inlet site was developed. Theoretical methods for determining regional blood flow, volume, and mean transit time parameters from time-absorbance curves arise from this model. The robustness of the parameter estimation methods was evaluated using a computer-simulated vessel network model. Flow through arterioles, networks of capillaries, and venules was simulated. Parameter identification and practical implementation issues were addressed. The shape of the inlet concentration curve and moderate amounts of random noise did not effect the ability of the method to recover accurate parameter estimates. The parameter estimates degraded in the presence of significant dispersion of the measured inlet concentration curve as it traveled through arteries upstream from the microvascular region. The methods were applied to image data obtained using microfocal x-ray angiography to study the pulmonary microcirculation. Time- absorbance curves were acquired from a small feeding artery, the surrounding microvasculature and a draining vein of an isolated dog lung as contrast material passed through the field-of-view. Changes in regional microvascular volume were determined from these curves.

  4. Estimating recharge rates with analytic element models and parameter estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dripps, W.R.; Hunt, R.J.; Anderson, M.P.

    2006-01-01

    Quantifying the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge is usually a prerequisite for effective ground water flow modeling. In this study, an analytic element (AE) code (GFLOW) was used with a nonlinear parameter estimation code (UCODE) to quantify the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge using measured base flows as calibration targets. The ease and flexibility of AE model construction and evaluation make this approach well suited for recharge estimation. An AE flow model of an undeveloped watershed in northern Wisconsin was optimized to match median annual base flows at four stream gages for 1996 to 2000 to demonstrate the approach. Initial optimizations that assumed a constant distributed recharge rate provided good matches (within 5%) to most of the annual base flow estimates, but discrepancies of >12% at certain gages suggested that a single value of recharge for the entire watershed is inappropriate. Subsequent optimizations that allowed for spatially distributed recharge zones based on the distribution of vegetation types improved the fit and confirmed that vegetation can influence spatial recharge variability in this watershed. Temporally, the annual recharge values varied >2.5-fold between 1996 and 2000 during which there was an observed 1.7-fold difference in annual precipitation, underscoring the influence of nonclimatic factors on interannual recharge variability for regional flow modeling. The final recharge values compared favorably with more labor-intensive field measurements of recharge and results from studies, supporting the utility of using linked AE-parameter estimation codes for recharge estimation. Copyright ?? 2005 The Author(s).

  5. Parameter estimation, model reduction and quantum filtering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chase, Bradley A.

    This thesis explores the topics of parameter estimation and model reduction in the context of quantum filtering. The last is a mathematically rigorous formulation of continuous quantum measurement, in which a stream of auxiliary quantum systems is used to infer the state of a target quantum system. Fundamental quantum uncertainties appear as noise which corrupts the probe observations and therefore must be filtered in order to extract information about the target system. This is analogous to the classical filtering problem in which techniques of inference are used to process noisy observations of a system in order to estimate its state. Given the clear similarities between the two filtering problems, I devote the beginning of this thesis to a review of classical and quantum probability theory, stochastic calculus and filtering. This allows for a mathematically rigorous and technically adroit presentation of the quantum filtering problem and solution. Given this foundation, I next consider the related problem of quantum parameter estimation, in which one seeks to infer the strength of a parameter that drives the evolution of a probe quantum system. By embedding this problem in the state estimation problem solved by the quantum filter, I present the optimal Bayesian estimator for a parameter when given continuous measurements of the probe system to which it couples. For cases when the probe takes on a finite number of values, I review a set of sufficient conditions for asymptotic convergence of the estimator. For a continuous-valued parameter, I present a computational method called quantum particle filtering for practical estimation of the parameter. Using these methods, I then study the particular problem of atomic magnetometry and review an experimental method for potentially reducing the uncertainty in the estimate of the magnetic field beyond the standard quantum limit. The technique involves double-passing a probe laser field through the atomic system, giving

  6. Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Beyer, W. Nelson; Basta, Nicholas T; Chaney, Rufus L.; Henry, Paula F.; Mosby, David; Rattner, Barnett A.; Scheckel, Kirk G.; Sprague, Dan; Weber, John

    2016-01-01

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, we measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contaminated soils. Relative bioavailabilities were expressed by comparison with blood Pb concentrations in quail fed a Pb acetate reference diet. Diets containing soil from five Pb-contaminated Superfund sites had relative bioavailabilities from 33%-63%, with a mean of about 50%. Treatment of two of the soils with phosphorus significantly reduced the bioavailability of Pb. Bioaccessibility of Pb in the test soils was then measured in six in vitro tests and regressed on bioavailability. They were: the “Relative Bioavailability Leaching Procedure” (RBALP) at pH 1.5, the same test conducted at pH 2.5, the “Ohio State University In vitro Gastrointestinal” method (OSU IVG), the “Urban Soil Bioaccessible Lead Test”, the modified “Physiologically Based Extraction Test” and the “Waterfowl Physiologically Based Extraction Test.” All regressions had positive slopes. Based on criteria of slope and coefficient of determination, the RBALP pH 2.5 and OSU IVG tests performed very well. Speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy demonstrated that, on average, most of the Pb in the sampled soils was sorbed to minerals (30%), bound to organic matter (24%), or present as Pb sulfate (18%). Additional Pb was associated with P (chloropyromorphite, hydroxypyromorphite and tertiary Pb phosphate), and with Pb carbonates, leadhillite (a lead sulfate carbonate hydroxide), and Pb sulfide. The formation of chloropyromorphite reduced the bioavailability of Pb and the amendment of Pb-contaminated soils with P may be a thermodynamically favored means to sequester Pb.

  7. Adaptive Estimation of Intravascular Shear Rate Based on Parameter Optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitta, Naotaka; Takeda, Naoto

    2008-05-01

    The relationships between the intravascular wall shear stress, controlled by flow dynamics, and the progress of arteriosclerosis plaque have been clarified by various studies. Since the shear stress is determined by the viscosity coefficient and shear rate, both factors must be estimated accurately. In this paper, an adaptive method for improving the accuracy of quantitative shear rate estimation was investigated. First, the parameter dependence of the estimated shear rate was investigated in terms of the differential window width and the number of averaged velocity profiles based on simulation and experimental data, and then the shear rate calculation was optimized. The optimized result revealed that the proposed adaptive method of shear rate estimation was effective for improving the accuracy of shear rate calculation.

  8. Intraocular lens power estimation by accurate ray tracing for eyes underwent previous refractive surgeries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yang, Que; Wang, Shanshan; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Chunyu; Zhang, Lu; Meng, Qingyu; Zhu, Qiudong

    2015-08-01

    For normal eyes without history of any ocular surgery, traditional equations for calculating intraocular lens (IOL) power, such as SRK-T, Holladay, Higis, SRK-II, et al., all were relativley accurate. However, for eyes underwent refractive surgeries, such as LASIK, or eyes diagnosed as keratoconus, these equations may cause significant postoperative refractive error, which may cause poor satisfaction after cataract surgery. Although some methods have been carried out to solve this problem, such as Hagis-L equation[1], or using preoperative data (data before LASIK) to estimate K value[2], no precise equations were available for these eyes. Here, we introduced a novel intraocular lens power estimation method by accurate ray tracing with optical design software ZEMAX. Instead of using traditional regression formula, we adopted the exact measured corneal elevation distribution, central corneal thickness, anterior chamber depth, axial length, and estimated effective lens plane as the input parameters. The calculation of intraocular lens power for a patient with keratoconus and another LASIK postoperative patient met very well with their visual capacity after cataract surgery.

  9. Bioaccessibility tests accurately estimate bioavailability of lead to quail.

    PubMed

    Beyer, W Nelson; Basta, Nicholas T; Chaney, Rufus L; Henry, Paula F P; Mosby, David E; Rattner, Barnett A; Scheckel, Kirk G; Sprague, Daniel T; Weber, John S

    2016-09-01

    Hazards of soil-borne lead (Pb) to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, the authors measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contaminated soils. Relative bioavailabilities were expressed by comparison with blood Pb concentrations in quail fed a Pb acetate reference diet. Diets containing soil from 5 Pb-contaminated Superfund sites had relative bioavailabilities from 33% to 63%, with a mean of approximately 50%. Treatment of 2 of the soils with phosphorus (P) significantly reduced the bioavailability of Pb. Bioaccessibility of Pb in the test soils was then measured in 6 in vitro tests and regressed on bioavailability: the relative bioavailability leaching procedure at pH 1.5, the same test conducted at pH 2.5, the Ohio State University in vitro gastrointestinal method, the urban soil bioaccessible lead test, the modified physiologically based extraction test, and the waterfowl physiologically based extraction test. All regressions had positive slopes. Based on criteria of slope and coefficient of determination, the relative bioavailability leaching procedure at pH 2.5 and Ohio State University in vitro gastrointestinal tests performed very well. Speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy demonstrated that, on average, most of the Pb in the sampled soils was sorbed to minerals (30%), bound to organic matter (24%), or present as Pb sulfate (18%). Additional Pb was associated with P (chloropyromorphite, hydroxypyromorphite, and tertiary Pb phosphate) and with Pb carbonates, leadhillite (a lead sulfate carbonate hydroxide), and Pb sulfide. The formation of chloropyromorphite reduced the bioavailability of Pb, and the amendment of Pb-contaminated soils with P may be a thermodynamically favored means to sequester Pb. Environ Toxicol Chem 2016;35:2311-2319. Published 2016 Wiley Periodicals Inc. on behalf of

  10. Advanced Method to Estimate Fuel Slosh Simulation Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlee, Keith; Gangadharan, Sathya; Ristow, James; Sudermann, James; Walker, Charles; Hubert, Carl

    2005-01-01

    The nutation (wobble) of a spinning spacecraft in the presence of energy dissipation is a well-known problem in dynamics and is of particular concern for space missions. The nutation of a spacecraft spinning about its minor axis typically grows exponentially and the rate of growth is characterized by the Nutation Time Constant (NTC). For launch vehicles using spin-stabilized upper stages, fuel slosh in the spacecraft propellant tanks is usually the primary source of energy dissipation. For analytical prediction of the NTC this fuel slosh is commonly modeled using simple mechanical analogies such as pendulums or rigid rotors coupled to the spacecraft. Identifying model parameter values which adequately represent the sloshing dynamics is the most important step in obtaining an accurate NTC estimate. Analytic determination of the slosh model parameters has met with mixed success and is made even more difficult by the introduction of propellant management devices and elastomeric diaphragms. By subjecting full-sized fuel tanks with actual flight fuel loads to motion similar to that experienced in flight and measuring the forces experienced by the tanks these parameters can be determined experimentally. Currently, the identification of the model parameters is a laborious trial-and-error process in which the equations of motion for the mechanical analog are hand-derived, evaluated, and their results are compared with the experimental results. The proposed research is an effort to automate the process of identifying the parameters of the slosh model using a MATLAB/SimMechanics-based computer simulation of the experimental setup. Different parameter estimation and optimization approaches are evaluated and compared in order to arrive at a reliable and effective parameter identification process. To evaluate each parameter identification approach, a simple one-degree-of-freedom pendulum experiment is constructed and motion is induced using an electric motor. By applying the

  11. An investigation of new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Beltracchi, Todd J.; Gabriele, Gary A.

    1988-01-01

    Parameter sensitivity is defined as the estimation of changes in the modeling functions and the design variables due to small changes in the fixed parameters of the formulation. There are currently several methods for estimating parameter sensitivities requiring either difficult to obtain second order information, or do not return reliable estimates for the derivatives. Additionally, all the methods assume that the set of active constraints does not change in a neighborhood of the estimation point. If the active set does in fact change, than any extrapolations based on these derivatives may be in error. The objective here is to investigate more efficient new methods for estimating parameter sensitivities when the active set changes. The new method is based on the recursive quadratic programming (RQP) method and in conjunction a differencing formula to produce estimates of the sensitivities. This is compared to existing methods and is shown to be very competitive in terms of the number of function evaluations required. In terms of accuracy, the method is shown to be equivalent to a modified version of the Kuhn-Tucker method, where the Hessian of the Lagrangian is estimated using the BFS method employed by the RPQ algorithm. Inital testing on a test set with known sensitivities demonstrates that the method can accurately calculate the parameter sensitivity. To handle changes in the active set, a deflection algorithm is proposed for those cases where the new set of active constraints remains linearly independent. For those cases where dependencies occur, a directional derivative is proposed. A few simple examples are included for the algorithm, but extensive testing has not yet been performed.

  12. Parameter estimation in tree graph metabolic networks

    PubMed Central

    Stigter, Hans; Gomez Roldan, Maria Victoria; van Eeuwijk, Fred; Hall, Robert D.; Groenenboom, Marian; Molenaar, Jaap J.

    2016-01-01

    We study the glycosylation processes that convert initially toxic substrates to nutritionally valuable metabolites in the flavonoid biosynthesis pathway of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) seedlings. To estimate the reaction rates we use ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to model the enzyme kinetics. A popular choice is to use a system of linear ODEs with constant kinetic rates or to use Michaelis–Menten kinetics. In reality, the catalytic rates, which are affected among other factors by kinetic constants and enzyme concentrations, are changing in time and with the approaches just mentioned, this phenomenon cannot be described. Another problem is that, in general these kinetic coefficients are not always identifiable. A third problem is that, it is not precisely known which enzymes are catalyzing the observed glycosylation processes. With several hundred potential gene candidates, experimental validation using purified target proteins is expensive and time consuming. We aim at reducing this task via mathematical modeling to allow for the pre-selection of most potential gene candidates. In this article we discuss a fast and relatively simple approach to estimate time varying kinetic rates, with three favorable properties: firstly, it allows for identifiable estimation of time dependent parameters in networks with a tree-like structure. Secondly, it is relatively fast compared to usually applied methods that estimate the model derivatives together with the network parameters. Thirdly, by combining the metabolite concentration data with a corresponding microarray data, it can help in detecting the genes related to the enzymatic processes. By comparing the estimated time dynamics of the catalytic rates with time series gene expression data we may assess potential candidate genes behind enzymatic reactions. As an example, we show how to apply this method to select prominent glycosyltransferase genes in tomato seedlings.

  13. Parameter estimation in tree graph metabolic networks.

    PubMed

    Astola, Laura; Stigter, Hans; Gomez Roldan, Maria Victoria; van Eeuwijk, Fred; Hall, Robert D; Groenenboom, Marian; Molenaar, Jaap J

    2016-01-01

    We study the glycosylation processes that convert initially toxic substrates to nutritionally valuable metabolites in the flavonoid biosynthesis pathway of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) seedlings. To estimate the reaction rates we use ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to model the enzyme kinetics. A popular choice is to use a system of linear ODEs with constant kinetic rates or to use Michaelis-Menten kinetics. In reality, the catalytic rates, which are affected among other factors by kinetic constants and enzyme concentrations, are changing in time and with the approaches just mentioned, this phenomenon cannot be described. Another problem is that, in general these kinetic coefficients are not always identifiable. A third problem is that, it is not precisely known which enzymes are catalyzing the observed glycosylation processes. With several hundred potential gene candidates, experimental validation using purified target proteins is expensive and time consuming. We aim at reducing this task via mathematical modeling to allow for the pre-selection of most potential gene candidates. In this article we discuss a fast and relatively simple approach to estimate time varying kinetic rates, with three favorable properties: firstly, it allows for identifiable estimation of time dependent parameters in networks with a tree-like structure. Secondly, it is relatively fast compared to usually applied methods that estimate the model derivatives together with the network parameters. Thirdly, by combining the metabolite concentration data with a corresponding microarray data, it can help in detecting the genes related to the enzymatic processes. By comparing the estimated time dynamics of the catalytic rates with time series gene expression data we may assess potential candidate genes behind enzymatic reactions. As an example, we show how to apply this method to select prominent glycosyltransferase genes in tomato seedlings.

  14. Parameter estimation in tree graph metabolic networks.

    PubMed

    Astola, Laura; Stigter, Hans; Gomez Roldan, Maria Victoria; van Eeuwijk, Fred; Hall, Robert D; Groenenboom, Marian; Molenaar, Jaap J

    2016-01-01

    We study the glycosylation processes that convert initially toxic substrates to nutritionally valuable metabolites in the flavonoid biosynthesis pathway of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) seedlings. To estimate the reaction rates we use ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to model the enzyme kinetics. A popular choice is to use a system of linear ODEs with constant kinetic rates or to use Michaelis-Menten kinetics. In reality, the catalytic rates, which are affected among other factors by kinetic constants and enzyme concentrations, are changing in time and with the approaches just mentioned, this phenomenon cannot be described. Another problem is that, in general these kinetic coefficients are not always identifiable. A third problem is that, it is not precisely known which enzymes are catalyzing the observed glycosylation processes. With several hundred potential gene candidates, experimental validation using purified target proteins is expensive and time consuming. We aim at reducing this task via mathematical modeling to allow for the pre-selection of most potential gene candidates. In this article we discuss a fast and relatively simple approach to estimate time varying kinetic rates, with three favorable properties: firstly, it allows for identifiable estimation of time dependent parameters in networks with a tree-like structure. Secondly, it is relatively fast compared to usually applied methods that estimate the model derivatives together with the network parameters. Thirdly, by combining the metabolite concentration data with a corresponding microarray data, it can help in detecting the genes related to the enzymatic processes. By comparing the estimated time dynamics of the catalytic rates with time series gene expression data we may assess potential candidate genes behind enzymatic reactions. As an example, we show how to apply this method to select prominent glycosyltransferase genes in tomato seedlings. PMID:27688960

  15. Parameter estimation in tree graph metabolic networks

    PubMed Central

    Stigter, Hans; Gomez Roldan, Maria Victoria; van Eeuwijk, Fred; Hall, Robert D.; Groenenboom, Marian; Molenaar, Jaap J.

    2016-01-01

    We study the glycosylation processes that convert initially toxic substrates to nutritionally valuable metabolites in the flavonoid biosynthesis pathway of tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) seedlings. To estimate the reaction rates we use ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to model the enzyme kinetics. A popular choice is to use a system of linear ODEs with constant kinetic rates or to use Michaelis–Menten kinetics. In reality, the catalytic rates, which are affected among other factors by kinetic constants and enzyme concentrations, are changing in time and with the approaches just mentioned, this phenomenon cannot be described. Another problem is that, in general these kinetic coefficients are not always identifiable. A third problem is that, it is not precisely known which enzymes are catalyzing the observed glycosylation processes. With several hundred potential gene candidates, experimental validation using purified target proteins is expensive and time consuming. We aim at reducing this task via mathematical modeling to allow for the pre-selection of most potential gene candidates. In this article we discuss a fast and relatively simple approach to estimate time varying kinetic rates, with three favorable properties: firstly, it allows for identifiable estimation of time dependent parameters in networks with a tree-like structure. Secondly, it is relatively fast compared to usually applied methods that estimate the model derivatives together with the network parameters. Thirdly, by combining the metabolite concentration data with a corresponding microarray data, it can help in detecting the genes related to the enzymatic processes. By comparing the estimated time dynamics of the catalytic rates with time series gene expression data we may assess potential candidate genes behind enzymatic reactions. As an example, we show how to apply this method to select prominent glycosyltransferase genes in tomato seedlings. PMID:27688960

  16. Precise and accurate assessment of uncertainties in model parameters from stellar interferometry. Application to stellar diameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lachaume, Regis; Rabus, Markus; Jordan, Andres

    2015-08-01

    In stellar interferometry, the assumption that the observables can be seen as Gaussian, independent variables is the norm. In particular, neither the optical interferometry FITS (OIFITS) format nor the most popular fitting software in the field, LITpro, offer means to specify a covariance matrix or non-Gaussian uncertainties. Interferometric observables are correlated by construct, though. Also, the calibration by an instrumental transfer function ensures that the resulting observables are not Gaussian, even if uncalibrated ones happened to be so.While analytic frameworks have been published in the past, they are cumbersome and there is no generic implementation available. We propose here a relatively simple way of dealing with correlated errors without the need to extend the OIFITS specification or making some Gaussian assumptions. By repeatedly picking at random which interferograms, which calibrator stars, and which are the errors on their diameters, and performing the data processing on the bootstrapped data, we derive a sampling of p(O), the multivariate probability density function (PDF) of the observables O. The results can be stored in a normal OIFITS file. Then, given a model m with parameters P predicting observables O = m(P), we can estimate the PDF of the model parameters f(P) = p(m(P)) by using a density estimation of the observables' PDF p.With observations repeated over different baselines, on nights several days apart, and with a significant set of calibrators systematic errors are de facto taken into account. We apply the technique to a precise and accurate assessment of stellar diameters obtained at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer with PIONIER.

  17. PhyloPars: estimation of missing parameter values using phylogeny.

    PubMed

    Bruggeman, Jorn; Heringa, Jaap; Brandt, Bernd W

    2009-07-01

    A wealth of information on metabolic parameters of a species can be inferred from observations on species that are phylogenetically related. Phylogeny-based information can complement direct empirical evidence, and is particularly valuable if experiments on the species of interest are not feasible. The PhyloPars web server provides a statistically consistent method that combines an incomplete set of empirical observations with the species phylogeny to produce a complete set of parameter estimates for all species. It builds upon a state-of-the-art evolutionary model, extended with the ability to handle missing data. The resulting approach makes optimal use of all available information to produce estimates that can be an order of magnitude more accurate than ad-hoc alternatives. Uploading a phylogeny and incomplete feature matrix suffices to obtain estimates of all missing values, along with a measure of certainty. Real-time cross-validation provides further insight in the accuracy and bias expected for estimated values. The server allows for easy, efficient estimation of metabolic parameters, which can benefit a wide range of fields including systems biology and ecology. PhyloPars is available at: http://www.ibi.vu.nl/programs/phylopars/.

  18. A simple and accurate resist parameter extraction method for sub-80-nm DRAM patterns

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sook; Hwang, Chan; Park, Dong-Woon; Kim, In-Sung; Kim, Ho-Chul; Woo, Sang-Gyun; Cho, Han-Ku; Moon, Joo-Tae

    2004-05-01

    Due to the polarization effect of high NA lithography, the consideration of resist effect in lithography simulation becomes increasingly important. In spite of the importance of resist simulation, many process engineers are reluctant to consider resist effect in lithography simulation due to time-consuming procedure to extract required resist parameters and the uncertainty of measurement of some parameters. Weiss suggested simplified development model, and this model does not require the complex kinetic parameters. For the device fabrication engineers, there is a simple and accurate parameter extraction and optimizing method using Weiss model. This method needs refractive index, Dill"s parameters and development rate monitoring (DRM) data in parameter extraction. The parameters extracted using referred sequence is not accurate, so that we have to optimize the parameters to fit the critical dimension scanning electron microscopy (CD SEM) data of line and space patterns. Hence, the FiRM of Sigma-C is utilized as a resist parameter-optimizing program. According to our study, the illumination shape, the aberration and the pupil mesh point have a large effect on the accuracy of resist parameter in optimization. To obtain the optimum parameters, we need to find the saturated mesh points in terms of normalized intensity log slope (NILS) prior to an optimization. The simulation results using the optimized parameters by this method shows good agreement with experiments for iso-dense bias, Focus-Exposure Matrix data and sub 80nm device pattern simulation.

  19. Real-Time Parameter Estimation Using Output Error

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Grauer, Jared A.

    2014-01-01

    Output-error parameter estimation, normally a post- ight batch technique, was applied to real-time dynamic modeling problems. Variations on the traditional algorithm were investigated with the goal of making the method suitable for operation in real time. Im- plementation recommendations are given that are dependent on the modeling problem of interest. Application to ight test data showed that accurate parameter estimates and un- certainties for the short-period dynamics model were available every 2 s using time domain data, or every 3 s using frequency domain data. The data compatibility problem was also solved in real time, providing corrected sensor measurements every 4 s. If uncertainty corrections for colored residuals are omitted, this rate can be increased to every 0.5 s.

  20. [Automatic Measurement of the Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Based Mass Estimation].

    PubMed

    Tu, Liang-ping; Wei, Hui-ming; Luo, A-li; Zhao, Yong-heng

    2015-11-01

    We have collected massive stellar spectral data in recent years, which leads to the research on the automatic measurement of stellar atmospheric physical parameters (effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/ H]) become an important issue. To study the automatic measurement of these three parameters has important significance for some scientific problems, such as the evolution of the universe and so on. But the research of this problem is not very widely, some of the current methods are not able to estimate the values of the stellar atmospheric physical parameters completely and accurately. So in this paper, an automatic method to predict stellar atmospheric parameters based on mass estimation was presented, which can achieve the prediction of stellar effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/H]. This method has small amount of computation and fast training speed. The main idea of this method is that firstly it need us to build some mass distributions, secondly the original spectral data was mapped into the mass space and then to predict the stellar parameter with the support vector regression (SVR) in the mass space. we choose the stellar spectral data from the United States SDSS-DR8 for the training and testing. We also compared the predicted results of this method with the SSPP and achieve higher accuracy. The predicted results are more stable and the experimental results show that the method is feasible and can predict the stellar atmospheric physical parameters effectively. PMID:26978937

  1. [Automatic Measurement of the Stellar Atmospheric Parameters Based Mass Estimation].

    PubMed

    Tu, Liang-ping; Wei, Hui-ming; Luo, A-li; Zhao, Yong-heng

    2015-11-01

    We have collected massive stellar spectral data in recent years, which leads to the research on the automatic measurement of stellar atmospheric physical parameters (effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/ H]) become an important issue. To study the automatic measurement of these three parameters has important significance for some scientific problems, such as the evolution of the universe and so on. But the research of this problem is not very widely, some of the current methods are not able to estimate the values of the stellar atmospheric physical parameters completely and accurately. So in this paper, an automatic method to predict stellar atmospheric parameters based on mass estimation was presented, which can achieve the prediction of stellar effective temperature Teff, surface gravity log g and metallic abundance [Fe/H]. This method has small amount of computation and fast training speed. The main idea of this method is that firstly it need us to build some mass distributions, secondly the original spectral data was mapped into the mass space and then to predict the stellar parameter with the support vector regression (SVR) in the mass space. we choose the stellar spectral data from the United States SDSS-DR8 for the training and testing. We also compared the predicted results of this method with the SSPP and achieve higher accuracy. The predicted results are more stable and the experimental results show that the method is feasible and can predict the stellar atmospheric physical parameters effectively.

  2. Online Parameter Estimation and Adaptive Control of Magnetic Wire Actuators

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karve, Harshwardhan

    Cantilevered magnetic wires and fibers can be used as actuators in microfluidic applications. The actuator may be unstable in some range of displacements. Precise position control is required for actuation. The goal of this work is to develop position controllers for cantilevered magnetic wires. A simple exact model knowledge (EMK) controller can be used for position control, but the actuator needs to be modeled accurately for the EMK controller to work. Continuum models have been proposed for magnetic wires in literature. Reduced order models have also been proposed. A one degree of freedom model sufficiently describes the dynamics of a cantilevered wire in the field of one magnet over small displacements. This reduced order model is used to develop the EMK controller here. The EMK controller assumes that model parameters are known accurately. Some model parameters depend on the magnetic field. However, the effect of the magnetic field on the wire is difficult to measure in practice. Stability analysis shows that an inaccurate estimate of the magnetic field introduces parametric perturbations in the closed loop system. This makes the system less robust to disturbances. Therefore, the model parameters need to be estimated accurately for the EMK controller to work. An adaptive observer that can estimate system parameters on-line and reduce parametric perturbations is designed here. The adaptive observer only works if the system is stable. The EMK controller is not guaranteed to stabilize the system under perturbations. Precise tuning of parameters is required to stabilize the system using the EMK controller. Therefore, a controller that stabilizes the system using imprecise model parameters is required for the observer to work as intended. The adaptive observer estimates system states and parameters. These states and parameters are used here to implement an indirect adaptive controller. This indirect controller can stabilize the system using imprecise initial

  3. Significance of accurate diffraction corrections for the second harmonic wave in determining the acoustic nonlinearity parameter

    SciTech Connect

    Jeong, Hyunjo; Zhang, Shuzeng; Li, Xiongbing; Barnard, Dan

    2015-09-15

    The accurate measurement of acoustic nonlinearity parameter β for fluids or solids generally requires making corrections for diffraction effects due to finite size geometry of transmitter and receiver. These effects are well known in linear acoustics, while those for second harmonic waves have not been well addressed and therefore not properly considered in previous studies. In this work, we explicitly define the attenuation and diffraction corrections using the multi-Gaussian beam (MGB) equations which were developed from the quasilinear solutions of the KZK equation. The effects of making these corrections are examined through the simulation of β determination in water. Diffraction corrections are found to have more significant effects than attenuation corrections, and the β values of water can be estimated experimentally with less than 5% errors when the exact second harmonic diffraction corrections are used together with the negligible attenuation correction effects on the basis of linear frequency dependence between attenuation coefficients, α{sub 2} ≃ 2α{sub 1}.

  4. Maximum-likelihood estimation of circle parameters via convolution.

    PubMed

    Zelniker, Emanuel E; Clarkson, I Vaughan L

    2006-04-01

    The accurate fitting of a circle to noisy measurements of circumferential points is a much studied problem in the literature. In this paper, we present an interpretation of the maximum-likelihood estimator (MLE) and the Delogne-Kåsa estimator (DKE) for circle-center and radius estimation in terms of convolution on an image which is ideal in a certain sense. We use our convolution-based MLE approach to find good estimates for the parameters of a circle in digital images. In digital images, it is then possible to treat these estimates as preliminary estimates into various other numerical techniques which further refine them to achieve subpixel accuracy. We also investigate the relationship between the convolution of an ideal image with a "phase-coded kernel" (PCK) and the MLE. This is related to the "phase-coded annulus" which was introduced by Atherton and Kerbyson who proposed it as one of a number of new convolution kernels for estimating circle center and radius. We show that the PCK is an approximate MLE (AMLE). We compare our AMLE method to the MLE and the DKE as well as the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound in ideal images and in both real and synthetic digital images. PMID:16579374

  5. Noncoherent sampling technique for communications parameter estimations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Su, Y. T.; Choi, H. J.

    1985-01-01

    This paper presents a method of noncoherent demodulation of the PSK signal for signal distortion analysis at the RF interface. The received RF signal is downconverted and noncoherently sampled for further off-line processing. Any mismatch in phase and frequency is then compensated for by the software using the estimation techniques to extract the baseband waveform, which is needed in measuring various signal parameters. In this way, various kinds of modulated signals can be treated uniformly, independent of modulation format, and additional distortions introduced by the receiver or the hardware measurement instruments can thus be eliminated. Quantization errors incurred by digital sampling and ensuing software manipulations are analyzed and related numerical results are presented also.

  6. Efficient and accurate estimation of relative order tensors from λ- maps

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mukhopadhyay, Rishi; Miao, Xijiang; Shealy, Paul; Valafar, Homayoun

    2009-06-01

    The rapid increase in the availability of RDC data from multiple alignment media in recent years has necessitated the development of more sophisticated analyses that extract the RDC data's full information content. This article presents an analysis of the distribution of RDCs from two media (2D-RDC data), using the information obtained from a λ-map. This article also introduces an efficient algorithm, which leverages these findings to extract the order tensors for each alignment medium using unassigned RDC data in the absence of any structural information. The results of applying this 2D-RDC analysis method to synthetic and experimental data are reported in this article. The relative order tensor estimates obtained from the 2D-RDC analysis are compared to order tensors obtained from the program REDCAT after using assignment and structural information. The final comparisons indicate that the relative order tensors estimated from the unassigned 2D-RDC method very closely match the results from methods that require assignment and structural information. The presented method is successful even in cases with small datasets. The results of analyzing experimental RDC data for the protein 1P7E are presented to demonstrate the potential of the presented work in accurately estimating the principal order parameters from RDC data that incompletely sample the RDC space. In addition to the new algorithm, a discussion of the uniqueness of the solutions is presented; no more than two clusters of distinct solutions have been shown to satisfy each λ-map.

  7. An investigation of numerical grid effects in parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Zyvoloski, George A; Vesselinov, Velimir V

    2006-01-01

    Modern ground water characterization and remediation projects routinely require calibration and inverse analysis of large three-dimensional numerical models of complex hydrogeological systems. Hydrogeologic complexity can be prompted by various aquifer characteristics including complicated spatial hydrostratigraphy and aquifer recharge from infiltration through an unsaturated zone. To keep the numerical models computationally efficient, compromises are frequently made in the model development, particularly, about resolution of the computational grid and numerical representation of the governing flow equation. The compromise is required so that the model can be used in calibration, parameter estimation, performance assessment, and analysis of sensitivity and uncertainty in model predictions. However, grid properties and resolution as well as applied computational schemes can have large effects on forward-model predictions and on inverse parameter estimates. We investigate these effects for a series of one- and two-dimensional synthetic cases representing saturated and variably saturated flow problems. We show that "conformable" grids, despite neglecting terms in the numerical formulation, can lead to accurate solutions of problems with complex hydrostratigraphy. Our analysis also demonstrates that, despite slower computer run times and higher memory requirements for a given problem size, the control volume finite-element method showed an advantage over finite-difference techniques in accuracy of parameter estimation for a given grid resolution for most of the test problems.

  8. A method of estimating optimal catchment model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ibrahim, Yaacob; Liong, Shie-Yui

    1993-09-01

    A review of a calibration method developed earlier (Ibrahim and Liong, 1992) is presented. The method generates optimal values for single events. It entails randomizing the calibration parameters over bounds such that a system response under consideration is bounded. Within the bounds, which are narrow and generated automatically, explicit response surface representation of the response is obtained using experimental design techniques and regression analysis. The optimal values are obtained by searching on the response surface for a point at which the predicted response is equal to the measured response and the value of the joint probability density function at that point in a transformed space is the highest. The method is demonstrated on a catchment in Singapore. The issue of global optimal values is addressed by applying the method on wider bounds. The results indicate that the optimal values arising from the narrow set of bounds are, indeed, global. Improvements which are designed to achieve comparably accurate estimates but with less expense are introduced. A linear response surface model is used. Two approximations of the model are studied. The first is to fit the model using data points generated from simple Monte Carlo simulation; the second is to approximate the model by a Taylor series expansion. Very good results are obtained from both approximations. Two methods of obtaining a single estimate from the individual event's estimates of the parameters are presented. The simulated and measured hydrographs of four verification storms using these estimates compare quite well.

  9. Accelerated gravitational wave parameter estimation with reduced order modeling.

    PubMed

    Canizares, Priscilla; Field, Scott E; Gair, Jonathan; Raymond, Vivien; Smith, Rory; Tiglio, Manuel

    2015-02-20

    Inferring the astrophysical parameters of coalescing compact binaries is a key science goal of the upcoming advanced LIGO-Virgo gravitational-wave detector network and, more generally, gravitational-wave astronomy. However, current approaches to parameter estimation for these detectors require computationally expensive algorithms. Therefore, there is a pressing need for new, fast, and accurate Bayesian inference techniques. In this Letter, we demonstrate that a reduced order modeling approach enables rapid parameter estimation to be performed. By implementing a reduced order quadrature scheme within the LIGO Algorithm Library, we show that Bayesian inference on the 9-dimensional parameter space of nonspinning binary neutron star inspirals can be sped up by a factor of ∼30 for the early advanced detectors' configurations (with sensitivities down to around 40 Hz) and ∼70 for sensitivities down to around 20 Hz. This speedup will increase to about 150 as the detectors improve their low-frequency limit to 10 Hz, reducing to hours analyses which could otherwise take months to complete. Although these results focus on interferometric gravitational wave detectors, the techniques are broadly applicable to any experiment where fast Bayesian analysis is desirable. PMID:25763948

  10. Estimation of growth parameters using a nonlinear mixed Gompertz model.

    PubMed

    Wang, Z; Zuidhof, M J

    2004-06-01

    In order to maximize the utility of simulation models for decision making, accurate estimation of growth parameters and associated variances is crucial. A mixed Gompertz growth model was used to account for between-bird variation and heterogeneous variance. The mixed model had several advantages over the fixed effects model. The mixed model partitioned BW variation into between- and within-bird variation, and the covariance structure assumed with the random effect accounted for part of the BW correlation across ages in the same individual. The amount of residual variance decreased by over 55% with the mixed model. The mixed model reduced estimation biases that resulted from selective sampling. For analysis of longitudinal growth data, the mixed effects growth model is recommended.

  11. Determining Sample Size for Accurate Estimation of the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Olejnik, Stephen

    2000-01-01

    Discusses determining sample size for estimation of the squared multiple correlation coefficient and presents regression equations that permit determination of the sample size for estimating this parameter for up to 20 predictor variables. (SLD)

  12. Accurate Estimation of the Fine Layering Effect on the Wave Propagation in the Carbonate Rocks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bouchaala, F.; Ali, M. Y.

    2014-12-01

    The attenuation caused to the seismic wave during its propagation can be mainly divided into two parts, the scattering and the intrinsic attenuation. The scattering is an elastic redistribution of the energy due to the medium heterogeneities. However the intrinsic attenuation is an inelastic phenomenon, mainly due to the fluid-grain friction during the wave passage. The intrinsic attenuation is directly related to the physical characteristics of the medium, so this parameter is very can be used for media characterization and fluid detection, which is beneficial for the oil and gas industry. The intrinsic attenuation is estimated by subtracting the scattering from the total attenuation, therefore the accuracy of the intrinsic attenuation is directly dependent on the accuracy of the total attenuation and the scattering. The total attenuation can be estimated from the recorded waves, by using in-situ methods as the spectral ratio and frequency shift methods. The scattering is estimated by assuming the heterogeneities as a succession of stacked layers, each layer is characterized by a single density and velocity. The accuracy of the scattering is strongly dependent on the layer thicknesses, especially in the case of the media composed of carbonate rocks, such media are known for their strong heterogeneity. Previous studies gave some assumptions for the choice of the layer thickness, but they showed some limitations especially in the case of carbonate rocks. In this study we established a relationship between the layer thicknesses and the frequency of the propagation, after certain mathematical development of the Generalized O'Doherty-Anstey formula. We validated this relationship through some synthetic tests and real data provided from a VSP carried out over an onshore oilfield in the emirate of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates, primarily composed of carbonate rocks. The results showed the utility of our relationship for an accurate estimation of the scattering

  13. Analysis of neutron scattering data: Visualization and parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Beauchamp, J.J.; Fedorov, V.; Hamilton, W.A.; Yethiraj, M.

    1998-09-01

    Traditionally, small-angle neutron and x-ray scattering (SANS and SAXS) data analysis requires measurements of the signal and corrections due to the empty sample container, detector efficiency and time-dependent background. These corrections are then made on a pixel-by-pixel basis and estimates of relevant parameters (e.g., the radius of gyration) are made using the corrected data. This study was carried out in order to determine whether treatment of the detector efficiency and empty sample cell in a more statistically sound way would significantly reduce the uncertainties in the parameter estimators. Elements of experiment design are shortly discussed in this paper. For instance, we studied the way the time for a measurement should be optimally divided between the counting for signal, background and detector efficiency. In Section 2 we introduce the commonly accepted models for small-angle neutron and x-scattering and confine ourselves to the Guinier and Rayleigh models and their minor generalizations. The traditional approaches of data analysis are discussed only to the extent necessary to allow their comparison with the proposed techniques. Section 3 describes the main stages of the proposed method: visual data exploration, fitting the detector sensitivity function, and fitting a compound model. This model includes three additive terms describing scattering by the sampler, scattering with an empty container and a background noise. We compare a few alternatives for the first term by applying various scatter plots and computing sums of standardized squared residuals. Possible corrections due to smearing effects and randomness of estimated parameters are also shortly discussed. In Section 4 the robustness of the estimators with respect to low and upper bounds imposed on the momentum value is discussed. We show that for the available data set the most accurate and stable estimates are generated by models containing double terms either of Guinier's or Rayleigh's type

  14. System and method for motor parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Luhrs, Bin; Yan, Ting

    2014-03-18

    A system and method for determining unknown values of certain motor parameters includes a motor input device connectable to an electric motor having associated therewith values for known motor parameters and an unknown value of at least one motor parameter. The motor input device includes a processing unit that receives a first input from the electric motor comprising values for the known motor parameters for the electric motor and receive a second input comprising motor data on a plurality of reference motors, including values for motor parameters corresponding to the known motor parameters of the electric motor and values for motor parameters corresponding to the at least one unknown motor parameter value of the electric motor. The processor determines the unknown value of the at least one motor parameter from the first input and the second input and determines a motor management strategy for the electric motor based thereon.

  15. Parameter estimation with Sandage-Loeb test

    SciTech Connect

    Geng, Jia-Jia; Zhang, Jing-Fei; Zhang, Xin E-mail: jfzhang@mail.neu.edu.cn

    2014-12-01

    The Sandage-Loeb (SL) test directly measures the expansion rate of the universe in the redshift range of 2 ∼< z ∼< 5 by detecting redshift drift in the spectra of Lyman-α forest of distant quasars. We discuss the impact of the future SL test data on parameter estimation for the ΛCDM, the wCDM, and the w{sub 0}w{sub a}CDM models. To avoid the potential inconsistency with other observational data, we take the best-fitting dark energy model constrained by the current observations as the fiducial model to produce 30 mock SL test data. The SL test data provide an important supplement to the other dark energy probes, since they are extremely helpful in breaking the existing parameter degeneracies. We show that the strong degeneracy between Ω{sub m} and H{sub 0} in all the three dark energy models is well broken by the SL test. Compared to the current combined data of type Ia supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillation, cosmic microwave background, and Hubble constant, the 30-yr observation of SL test could improve the constraints on Ω{sub m} and H{sub 0} by more than 60% for all the three models. But the SL test can only moderately improve the constraint on the equation of state of dark energy. We show that a 30-yr observation of SL test could help improve the constraint on constant w by about 25%, and improve the constraints on w{sub 0} and w{sub a} by about 20% and 15%, respectively. We also quantify the constraining power of the SL test in the future high-precision joint geometric constraints on dark energy. The mock future supernova and baryon acoustic oscillation data are simulated based on the space-based project JDEM. We find that the 30-yr observation of SL test would help improve the measurement precision of Ω{sub m}, H{sub 0}, and w{sub a} by more than 70%, 20%, and 60%, respectively, for the w{sub 0}w{sub a}CDM model.

  16. Estimation method of point spread function based on Kalman filter for accurately evaluating real optical properties of photonic crystal fibers.

    PubMed

    Shen, Yan; Lou, Shuqin; Wang, Xin

    2014-03-20

    The evaluation accuracy of real optical properties of photonic crystal fibers (PCFs) is determined by the accurate extraction of air hole edges from microscope images of cross sections of practical PCFs. A novel estimation method of point spread function (PSF) based on Kalman filter is presented to rebuild the micrograph image of the PCF cross-section and thus evaluate real optical properties for practical PCFs. Through tests on both artificially degraded images and microscope images of cross sections of practical PCFs, we prove that the proposed method can achieve more accurate PSF estimation and lower PSF variance than the traditional Bayesian estimation method, and thus also reduce the defocus effect. With this method, we rebuild the microscope images of two kinds of commercial PCFs produced by Crystal Fiber and analyze the real optical properties of these PCFs. Numerical results are in accord with the product parameters.

  17. Estimation of high altitude Martian dust parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pabari, Jayesh; Bhalodi, Pinali

    2016-07-01

    Dust devils are known to occur near the Martian surface mostly during the mid of Southern hemisphere summer and they play vital role in deciding background dust opacity in the atmosphere. The second source of high altitude Martian dust could be due to the secondary ejecta caused by impacts on Martian Moons, Phobos and Deimos. Also, the surfaces of the Moons are charged positively due to ultraviolet rays from the Sun and negatively due to space plasma currents. Such surface charging may cause fine grains to be levitated, which can easily escape the Moons. It is expected that the escaping dust form dust rings within the orbits of the Moons and therefore also around the Mars. One more possible source of high altitude Martian dust is interplanetary in nature. Due to continuous supply of the dust from various sources and also due to a kind of feedback mechanism existing between the ring or tori and the sources, the dust rings or tori can sustain over a period of time. Recently, very high altitude dust at about 1000 km has been found by MAVEN mission and it is expected that the dust may be concentrated at about 150 to 500 km. However, it is mystery how dust has reached to such high altitudes. Estimation of dust parameters before-hand is necessary to design an instrument for the detection of high altitude Martian dust from a future orbiter. In this work, we have studied the dust supply rate responsible primarily for the formation of dust ring or tori, the life time of dust particles around the Mars, the dust number density as well as the effect of solar radiation pressure and Martian oblateness on dust dynamics. The results presented in this paper may be useful to space scientists for understanding the scenario and designing an orbiter based instrument to measure the dust surrounding the Mars for solving the mystery. The further work is underway.

  18. Biases on cosmological parameter estimators from galaxy cluster number counts

    SciTech Connect

    Penna-Lima, M.; Wuensche, C.A.; Makler, M. E-mail: martin@cbpf.br

    2014-05-01

    Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) surveys are promising probes of cosmology — in particular for Dark Energy (DE) —, given their ability to find distant clusters and provide estimates for their mass. However, current SZ catalogs contain tens to hundreds of objects and maximum likelihood estimators may present biases for such sample sizes. In this work we study estimators from cluster abundance for some cosmological parameters, in particular the DE equation of state parameter w{sub 0}, the amplitude of density fluctuations σ{sub 8}, and the Dark Matter density parameter Ω{sub c}. We begin by deriving an unbinned likelihood for cluster number counts, showing that it is equivalent to the one commonly used in the literature. We use the Monte Carlo approach to determine the presence of bias using this likelihood and study its behavior with both the area and depth of the survey, and the number of cosmological parameters fitted. Our fiducial models are based on the South Pole Telescope (SPT) SZ survey. Assuming perfect knowledge of mass and redshift some estimators have non-negligible biases. For example, the bias of σ{sub 8} corresponds to about 40% of its statistical error bar when fitted together with Ω{sub c} and w{sub 0}. Including a SZ mass-observable relation decreases the relevance of the bias, for the typical sizes of current SZ surveys. Considering a joint likelihood for cluster abundance and the so-called ''distance priors'', we obtain that the biases are negligible compared to the statistical errors. However, we show that the biases from SZ estimators do not go away with increasing sample sizes and they may become the dominant source of error for an all sky survey at the SPT sensitivity. Finally, we compute the confidence regions for the cosmological parameters using Fisher matrix and profile likelihood approaches, showing that they are compatible with the Monte Carlo ones. The results of this work validate the use of the current maximum likelihood methods for

  19. An accurate Fortran code for computing hydrogenic continuum wave functions at a wide range of parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Peng, Liang-You; Gong, Qihuang

    2010-12-01

    The accurate computations of hydrogenic continuum wave functions are very important in many branches of physics such as electron-atom collisions, cold atom physics, and atomic ionization in strong laser fields, etc. Although there already exist various algorithms and codes, most of them are only reliable in a certain ranges of parameters. In some practical applications, accurate continuum wave functions need to be calculated at extremely low energies, large radial distances and/or large angular momentum number. Here we provide such a code, which can generate accurate hydrogenic continuum wave functions and corresponding Coulomb phase shifts at a wide range of parameters. Without any essential restrict to angular momentum number, the present code is able to give reliable results at the electron energy range [10,10] eV for radial distances of [10,10] a.u. We also find the present code is very efficient, which should find numerous applications in many fields such as strong field physics. Program summaryProgram title: HContinuumGautchi Catalogue identifier: AEHD_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEHD_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen's University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 1233 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 7405 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Fortran90 in fixed format Computer: AMD Processors Operating system: Linux RAM: 20 MBytes Classification: 2.7, 4.5 Nature of problem: The accurate computation of atomic continuum wave functions is very important in many research fields such as strong field physics and cold atom physics. Although there have already existed various algorithms and codes, most of them can only be applicable and reliable in a certain range of parameters. We present here an accurate FORTRAN program for

  20. Bayesian parameter estimation by continuous homodyne detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kiilerich, Alexander Holm; Mølmer, Klaus

    2016-09-01

    We simulate the process of continuous homodyne detection of the radiative emission from a quantum system, and we investigate how a Bayesian analysis can be employed to determine unknown parameters that govern the system evolution. Measurement backaction quenches the system dynamics at all times and we show that the ensuing transient evolution is more sensitive to system parameters than the steady state of the system. The parameter sensitivity can be quantified by the Fisher information, and we investigate numerically and analytically how the temporal noise correlations in the measurement signal contribute to the ultimate sensitivity limit of homodyne detection.

  1. A fast and accurate frequency estimation algorithm for sinusoidal signal with harmonic components

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Jinghua; Pan, Mengchun; Zeng, Zhidun; Hu, Jiafei; Chen, Dixiang; Tian, Wugang; Zhao, Jianqiang; Du, Qingfa

    2016-10-01

    Frequency estimation is a fundamental problem in many applications, such as traditional vibration measurement, power system supervision, and microelectromechanical system sensors control. In this paper, a fast and accurate frequency estimation algorithm is proposed to deal with low efficiency problem in traditional methods. The proposed algorithm consists of coarse and fine frequency estimation steps, and we demonstrate that it is more efficient than conventional searching methods to achieve coarse frequency estimation (location peak of FFT amplitude) by applying modified zero-crossing technique. Thus, the proposed estimation algorithm requires less hardware and software sources and can achieve even higher efficiency when the experimental data increase. Experimental results with modulated magnetic signal show that the root mean square error of frequency estimation is below 0.032 Hz with the proposed algorithm, which has lower computational complexity and better global performance than conventional frequency estimation methods.

  2. Time resolved diffuse optical spectroscopy with geometrically accurate models for bulk parameter recovery

    PubMed Central

    Guggenheim, James A.; Bargigia, Ilaria; Farina, Andrea; Pifferi, Antonio; Dehghani, Hamid

    2016-01-01

    A novel straightforward, accessible and efficient approach is presented for performing hyperspectral time-domain diffuse optical spectroscopy to determine the optical properties of samples accurately using geometry specific models. To allow bulk parameter recovery from measured spectra, a set of libraries based on a numerical model of the domain being investigated is developed as opposed to the conventional approach of using an analytical semi-infinite slab approximation, which is known and shown to introduce boundary effects. Results demonstrate that the method improves the accuracy of derived spectrally varying optical properties over the use of the semi-infinite approximation. PMID:27699137

  3. Time resolved diffuse optical spectroscopy with geometrically accurate models for bulk parameter recovery

    PubMed Central

    Guggenheim, James A.; Bargigia, Ilaria; Farina, Andrea; Pifferi, Antonio; Dehghani, Hamid

    2016-01-01

    A novel straightforward, accessible and efficient approach is presented for performing hyperspectral time-domain diffuse optical spectroscopy to determine the optical properties of samples accurately using geometry specific models. To allow bulk parameter recovery from measured spectra, a set of libraries based on a numerical model of the domain being investigated is developed as opposed to the conventional approach of using an analytical semi-infinite slab approximation, which is known and shown to introduce boundary effects. Results demonstrate that the method improves the accuracy of derived spectrally varying optical properties over the use of the semi-infinite approximation.

  4. Estimation Methods for One-Parameter Testlet Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jiao, Hong; Wang, Shudong; He, Wei

    2013-01-01

    This study demonstrated the equivalence between the Rasch testlet model and the three-level one-parameter testlet model and explored the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for model parameter estimation in WINBUGS. The estimation accuracy from the MCMC method was compared with those from the marginalized maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE)…

  5. Development of Classification and Story Building Data for Accurate Earthquake Damage Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sakai, Yuki; Fukukawa, Noriko; Arai, Kensuke

    We investigated the method of developing classification and story building data from census population database in order to estimate earthquake damage more accurately especially in the urban area presuming that there are correlation between numbers of non-wooden or high-rise buildings and the population. We formulated equations of estimating numbers of wooden houses, low-to-mid-rise(1-9 story) and high-rise(over 10 story) non-wooden buildings in the 1km mesh from night and daytime population database based on the building data we investigated and collected in the selected 20 meshs in Kanto area. We could accurately estimate the numbers of three classified buildings by the formulated equations, but in some special cases, such as the apartment block mesh, the estimated values are quite different from actual values.

  6. Noniterative estimation of a nonlinear parameter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bergstroem, A.

    1973-01-01

    An algorithm is described which solves the parameters X = (x1,x2,...,xm) and p in an approximation problem Ax nearly equal to y(p), where the parameter p occurs nonlinearly in y. Instead of linearization methods, which require an approximate value of p to be supplied as a priori information, and which may lead to the finding of local minima, the proposed algorithm finds the global minimum by permitting the use of series expansions of arbitrary order, exploiting an a priori knowledge that the addition of a particular function, corresponding to a new column in A, will not improve the goodness of the approximation.

  7. Attitude determination and parameter estimation using vector observations - Theory

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Markley, F. Landis

    1989-01-01

    Procedures for attitude determination based on Wahba's loss function are generalized to include the estimation of parameters other than the attitude, such as sensor biases. Optimization with respect to the attitude is carried out using the q-method, which does not require an a priori estimate of the attitude. Optimization with respect to the other parameters employs an iterative approach, which does require an a priori estimate of these parameters. Conventional state estimation methods require a priori estimates of both the parameters and the attitude, while the algorithm presented in this paper always computes the exact optimal attitude for given values of the parameters. Expressions for the covariance of the attitude and parameter estimates are derived.

  8. Parameter and uncertainty estimation for mechanistic, spatially explicit epidemiological models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Finger, Flavio; Schaefli, Bettina; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Mari, Lorenzo; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Epidemiological models can be a crucially important tool for decision-making during disease outbreaks. The range of possible applications spans from real-time forecasting and allocation of health-care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. Our spatially explicit, mechanistic models for cholera epidemics have been successfully applied to several epidemics including, the one that struck Haiti in late 2010 and is still ongoing. Calibration and parameter estimation of such models represents a major challenge because of properties unusual in traditional geoscientific domains such as hydrology. Firstly, the epidemiological data available might be subject to high uncertainties due to error-prone diagnosis as well as manual (and possibly incomplete) data collection. Secondly, long-term time-series of epidemiological data are often unavailable. Finally, the spatially explicit character of the models requires the comparison of several time-series of model outputs with their real-world counterparts, which calls for an appropriate weighting scheme. It follows that the usual assumption of a homoscedastic Gaussian error distribution, used in combination with classical calibration techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, is likely to be violated, whereas the construction of an appropriate formal likelihood function seems close to impossible. Alternative calibration methods, which allow for accurate estimation of total model uncertainty, particularly regarding the envisaged use of the models for decision-making, are thus needed. Here we present the most recent developments regarding methods for parameter and uncertainty estimation to be used with our mechanistic, spatially explicit models for cholera epidemics, based on informal measures of goodness of fit.

  9. How Good are our Source Parameter Estimates for Small Earthquakes?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abercrombie, R. E.

    2002-12-01

    Measuring reliable and accurate source parameters for small earthquakes (M<3) is a long term goal for seismologists. Small earthquakes are important as they bridge the gap between laboratory measurements of stick-slip sliding and large damaging earthquakes. They also provide insights into the nucleation process of unstable slip. Unfortunately, uncertainties in such parameters as the stress drop and radiated energy of small earthquakes are as large as an order of magnitude. This is a consequence of the high frequency radiation (> 100 Hz) needed to resolve the source process. High frequency energy is severely attenuated and distorted along the ray path. The best records of small earthquakes are from deep (> 1km) boreholes and mines, where the waves are recorded before passing through the near-surface rocks. Abercrombie (1995) and Prejean & Ellsworth (2001) used such deep recordings to investigate source scaling and discovered that the radiated energy is a significantly smaller fraction of the total energy than for larger earthquakes. Richardson and Jordan (2002) obtained a similar result from seismograms recorded in deep mines. Ide and Beroza (2001) investigated the effect of limited recording bandwidth in such studies and found that there was evidence of selection bias. Recalculating the source parameters of earthquakes recorded in the Cajon Pass borehole, correcting for the limited bandwidth, does not remove the scale dependence. Ide et al. (2002) used empirical Green's function methods to improve source parameter estimates, and found that even deep borehole recording is not a guarantee of negligible site effects. Another problem is that the lack of multiple recordings of small earthquakes means that very simple source models have to be used to calculate source parameters. The rupture velocity must also be assumed. There are still significant differences (nearly a factor of 10 in stress drop) between the predictions of even the simple models commonly in use. Here I

  10. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach. PMID:27197044

  11. Do We Know Whether Researchers and Reviewers are Estimating Risk and Benefit Accurately?

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips; Kimmelman, Jonathan

    2016-10-01

    Accurate estimation of risk and benefit is integral to good clinical research planning, ethical review, and study implementation. Some commentators have argued that various actors in clinical research systems are prone to biased or arbitrary risk/benefit estimation. In this commentary, we suggest the evidence supporting such claims is very limited. Most prior work has imputed risk/benefit beliefs based on past behavior or goals, rather than directly measuring them. We describe an approach - forecast analysis - that would enable direct and effective measure of the quality of risk/benefit estimation. We then consider some objections and limitations to the forecasting approach.

  12. Applications of parameter estimation in the study of spinning airplanes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    W Taylor, L., Jr.

    1982-01-01

    Spinning airplanes offer challenges to estimating dynamic parameters because of the nonlinear nature of the dynamics. In this paper, parameter estimation techniques are applied to spin flight test data for estimating the error in measuring post-stall angles of attack, deriving Euler angles from angular velocity data, and estimating nonlinear aerodynamic characteristics. The value of the scale factor for post-stall angles of attack agrees closely with that obtained from special wind-tunnel tests. The independently derived Euler angles are seen to be valid in spite of steep pitch angles. Estimates of flight derived nonlinear aerodynamic parameters are evaluated in terms of the expected fit error.

  13. Advances in parameter estimation techniques applied to flexible structures

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maben, Egbert; Zimmerman, David C.

    1994-01-01

    In this work, various parameter estimation techniques are investigated in the context of structural system identification utilizing distributed parameter models and 'measured' time-domain data. Distributed parameter models are formulated using the PDEMOD software developed by Taylor. Enhancements made to PDEMOD for this work include the following: (1) a Wittrick-Williams based root solving algorithm; (2) a time simulation capability; and (3) various parameter estimation algorithms. The parameter estimations schemes will be contrasted using the NASA Mini-Mast as the focus structure.

  14. A hybrid optimization approach to the estimation of distributed parameters in two-dimensional confined aquifers

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Heidari, M.; Ranjithan, S.R.

    1998-01-01

    In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is experimentally demonstrated that only one piece of prior information of the least sensitive parameter is sufficient to arrive at the global or near-global optimum solution. For hydraulic head data with measurement errors, the error in the estimation of parameters increases as the standard deviation of the errors increases. Results from our experiments show that, in general, the accuracy of the estimated parameters depends on the level of noise in the hydraulic head data and the initial values used in the truncated-Newton search technique.In using non-linear optimization techniques for estimation of parameters in a distributed ground water model, the initial values of the parameters and prior information about them play important roles. In this paper, the genetic algorithm (GA) is combined with the truncated-Newton search technique to estimate groundwater parameters for a confined steady-state ground water model. Use of prior information about the parameters is shown to be important in estimating correct or near-correct values of parameters on a regional scale. The amount of prior information needed for an accurate solution is estimated by evaluation of the sensitivity of the performance function to the parameters. For the example presented here, it is

  15. On the accurate estimation of gap fraction during daytime with digital cover photography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hwang, Y. R.; Ryu, Y.; Kimm, H.; Macfarlane, C.; Lang, M.; Sonnentag, O.

    2015-12-01

    Digital cover photography (DCP) has emerged as an indirect method to obtain gap fraction accurately. Thus far, however, the intervention of subjectivity, such as determining the camera relative exposure value (REV) and threshold in the histogram, hindered computing accurate gap fraction. Here we propose a novel method that enables us to measure gap fraction accurately during daytime under various sky conditions by DCP. The novel method computes gap fraction using a single DCP unsaturated raw image which is corrected for scattering effects by canopies and a reconstructed sky image from the raw format image. To test the sensitivity of the novel method derived gap fraction to diverse REVs, solar zenith angles and canopy structures, we took photos in one hour interval between sunrise to midday under dense and sparse canopies with REV 0 to -5. The novel method showed little variation of gap fraction across different REVs in both dense and spares canopies across diverse range of solar zenith angles. The perforated panel experiment, which was used to test the accuracy of the estimated gap fraction, confirmed that the novel method resulted in the accurate and consistent gap fractions across different hole sizes, gap fractions and solar zenith angles. These findings highlight that the novel method opens new opportunities to estimate gap fraction accurately during daytime from sparse to dense canopies, which will be useful in monitoring LAI precisely and validating satellite remote sensing LAI products efficiently.

  16. Determining the Accuracy of Aerodynamic Model Parameters Estimated from Flight Test Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

    1995-01-01

    An important part of building mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of this accuracy, the parameter estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression for computing quantitatively correct parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals is developed and validated. This result is important because experience in analyzing flight test data reveals that the output residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Monte Carlo simulation runs were used to show that parameter accuracy measures from the new technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for correction factors or frequency domain analysis of the output residuals. The technique was applied to flight test data from repeated maneuvers flown on the F-18 High Alpha Research Vehicle (HARV). As in the simulated cases, parameter accuracy measures from the new technique were in agreement with the scatter in the parameter estimates from repeated maneuvers, while conventional parameter accuracy measures were optimistic.

  17. Expectation Maximisation based Kalman Filter parameter estimation of GRACE data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fuhrmann, Marcel; Holschneider, Matthias; Lorenz, Christof

    2015-04-01

    GRACE gravity field solutions have proven to be a great device to measure Earth's water storage variations. Nevertheless, if one tries to project the available satellite space-time structure of the time varying fields onto a global time varying field, the well known problem of aliasing appears, as it is manifested in the stripes of the inverse solution. This phenomenon is largely enforced through the use of global spacial modeling functions like spherical harmonics. One method to approach this problem is to apply the Kalman filter technique. This procedure requires knowledge of stochastic models of observations and process dynamics. However, Earth's gravity field is constantly changing in such a complex manner that it is impossible to accurately determine the correct process dynamic. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process was applied as a viable process dynamic. This process contains free hyper parameters, that need to be estimated by an Expectation- Minimization(EM) algorithm, allowing it to take into account an a-priori space-time correlation pattern to improve Kalman Filter estimations. The method was applied to unfiltered GRACE gaussian coefficients, using the intrinsic regularization abilities of the Kalman Filter itself. The result was a regularized potential field without additional hydrological information or other assumptions of the gravity field other than Kaula's Law.

  18. Accurate Estimation of the Entropy of Rotation-Translation Probability Distributions.

    PubMed

    Fogolari, Federico; Dongmo Foumthuim, Cedrix Jurgal; Fortuna, Sara; Soler, Miguel Angel; Corazza, Alessandra; Esposito, Gennaro

    2016-01-12

    The estimation of rotational and translational entropies in the context of ligand binding has been the subject of long-time investigations. The high dimensionality (six) of the problem and the limited amount of sampling often prevent the required resolution to provide accurate estimates by the histogram method. Recently, the nearest-neighbor distance method has been applied to the problem, but the solutions provided either address rotation and translation separately, therefore lacking correlations, or use a heuristic approach. Here we address rotational-translational entropy estimation in the context of nearest-neighbor-based entropy estimation, solve the problem numerically, and provide an exact and an approximate method to estimate the full rotational-translational entropy.

  19. Optimization of Correlation Kernel Size for Accurate Estimation of Myocardial Contraction and Relaxation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Honjo, Yasunori; Hasegawa, Hideyuki; Kanai, Hiroshi

    2012-07-01

    For noninvasive and quantitative measurements of global two-dimensional (2D) heart wall motion, speckle tracking methods have been developed and applied. In these conventional methods, the frame rate is limited to about 200 Hz, corresponding to the sampling period of 5 ms. However, myocardial function during short periods, as obtained by these conventional speckle tracking methods, remains unclear owing to low temporal and spatial resolutions of these methods. Moreover, an important parameter, the optimal kernel size, has not been thoroughly investigated. In our previous study, the optimal kernel size was determined in a phantom experiment under a high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR), and the determined optimal kernel size was applied to the in vivo measurement of 2D displacements of the heart wall by block matching using normalized cross-correlation between RF echoes at a high frame rate of 860 Hz, corresponding to a temporal resolution of 1.1 ms. However, estimations under low SNRs and the effects of the difference in echo characteristics, i.e., specular reflection and speckle-like echoes, have not been considered, and the evaluation of accuracy in the estimation of the strain rate is still insufficient. In this study, the optimal kernel sizes were determined in a phantom experiment under several SNRs and, then, the myocardial strain rate was estimated such that the myocardial function can be measured at a high frame rate. In a basic experiment, the optimal kernel sizes at depths of 20, 40, 60, and 80 mm yielded similar results: in particular, SNR was more than 15 dB. Moreover, it was found that the kernel size at the boundary must be set larger than that at the inside. The optimal sizes of the correlation kernel were seven times and four times the size of the point spread function around the boundary and inside the silicone rubber, respectively. To compare the optimal kernel sizes, which was determined in a phantom experiment, with other sizes, the radial strain

  20. Estimating winter wheat phenological parameters: Implications for crop modeling

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Crop parameters, such as the timing of developmental events, are critical for accurate simulation results in crop simulation models, yet uncertainty often exists in determining the parameters. Factors contributing to the uncertainty include: a) sources of variation within a plant (i.e., within diffe...

  1. Periodic orbits of hybrid systems and parameter estimation via AD.

    SciTech Connect

    Guckenheimer, John.; Phipps, Eric Todd; Casey, Richard

    2004-07-01

    Rhythmic, periodic processes are ubiquitous in biological systems; for example, the heart beat, walking, circadian rhythms and the menstrual cycle. Modeling these processes with high fidelity as periodic orbits of dynamical systems is challenging because: (1) (most) nonlinear differential equations can only be solved numerically; (2) accurate computation requires solving boundary value problems; (3) many problems and solutions are only piecewise smooth; (4) many problems require solving differential-algebraic equations; (5) sensitivity information for parameter dependence of solutions requires solving variational equations; and (6) truncation errors in numerical integration degrade performance of optimization methods for parameter estimation. In addition, mathematical models of biological processes frequently contain many poorly-known parameters, and the problems associated with this impedes the construction of detailed, high-fidelity models. Modelers are often faced with the difficult problem of using simulations of a nonlinear model, with complex dynamics and many parameters, to match experimental data. Improved computational tools for exploring parameter space and fitting models to data are clearly needed. This paper describes techniques for computing periodic orbits in systems of hybrid differential-algebraic equations and parameter estimation methods for fitting these orbits to data. These techniques make extensive use of automatic differentiation to accurately and efficiently evaluate derivatives for time integration, parameter sensitivities, root finding and optimization. The boundary value problem representing a periodic orbit in a hybrid system of differential algebraic equations is discretized via multiple-shooting using a high-degree Taylor series integration method [GM00, Phi03]. Numerical solutions to the shooting equations are then estimated by a Newton process yielding an approximate periodic orbit. A metric is defined for computing the distance

  2. FUZZY SUPERNOVA TEMPLATES. II. PARAMETER ESTIMATION

    SciTech Connect

    Rodney, Steven A.; Tonry, John L. E-mail: jt@ifa.hawaii.ed

    2010-05-20

    Wide-field surveys will soon be discovering Type Ia supernovae (SNe) at rates of several thousand per year. Spectroscopic follow-up can only scratch the surface for such enormous samples, so these extensive data sets will only be useful to the extent that they can be characterized by the survey photometry alone. In a companion paper we introduced the Supernova Ontology with Fuzzy Templates (SOFT) method for analyzing SNe using direct comparison to template light curves, and demonstrated its application for photometric SN classification. In this work we extend the SOFT method to derive estimates of redshift and luminosity distance for Type Ia SNe, using light curves from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and Supernova Legacy Survey (SNLS) as a validation set. Redshifts determined by SOFT using light curves alone are consistent with spectroscopic redshifts, showing an rms scatter in the residuals of rms{sub z} = 0.051. SOFT can also derive simultaneous redshift and distance estimates, yielding results that are consistent with the currently favored {Lambda}CDM cosmological model. When SOFT is given spectroscopic information for SN classification and redshift priors, the rms scatter in Hubble diagram residuals is 0.18 mag for the SDSS data and 0.28 mag for the SNLS objects. Without access to any spectroscopic information, and even without any redshift priors from host galaxy photometry, SOFT can still measure reliable redshifts and distances, with an increase in the Hubble residuals to 0.37 mag for the combined SDSS and SNLS data set. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we predict that SOFT will be able to improve constraints on time-variable dark energy models by a factor of 2-3 with each new generation of large-scale SN surveys.

  3. Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter

    PubMed Central

    Reddy, Chinthala P.; Rathi, Yogesh

    2016-01-01

    Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts. PMID:27147956

  4. Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter.

    PubMed

    Reddy, Chinthala P; Rathi, Yogesh

    2016-01-01

    Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts. PMID:27147956

  5. Joint Multi-Fiber NODDI Parameter Estimation and Tractography Using the Unscented Information Filter.

    PubMed

    Reddy, Chinthala P; Rathi, Yogesh

    2016-01-01

    Tracing white matter fiber bundles is an integral part of analyzing brain connectivity. An accurate estimate of the underlying tissue parameters is also paramount in several neuroscience applications. In this work, we propose to use a joint fiber model estimation and tractography algorithm that uses the NODDI (neurite orientation dispersion diffusion imaging) model to estimate fiber orientation dispersion consistently and smoothly along the fiber tracts along with estimating the intracellular and extracellular volume fractions from the diffusion signal. While the NODDI model has been used in earlier works to estimate the microstructural parameters at each voxel independently, for the first time, we propose to integrate it into a tractography framework. We extend this framework to estimate the NODDI parameters for two crossing fibers, which is imperative to trace fiber bundles through crossings as well as to estimate the microstructural parameters for each fiber bundle separately. We propose to use the unscented information filter (UIF) to accurately estimate the model parameters and perform tractography. The proposed approach has significant computational performance improvements as well as numerical robustness over the unscented Kalman filter (UKF). Our method not only estimates the confidence in the estimated parameters via the covariance matrix, but also provides the Fisher-information matrix of the state variables (model parameters), which can be quite useful to measure model complexity. Results from in-vivo human brain data sets demonstrate the ability of our algorithm to trace through crossing fiber regions, while estimating orientation dispersion and other biophysical model parameters in a consistent manner along the tracts.

  6. Estimating parameters for generalized mass action models with connectivity information

    PubMed Central

    Ko, Chih-Lung; Voit, Eberhard O; Wang, Feng-Sheng

    2009-01-01

    Background Determining the parameters of a mathematical model from quantitative measurements is the main bottleneck of modelling biological systems. Parameter values can be estimated from steady-state data or from dynamic data. The nature of suitable data for these two types of estimation is rather different. For instance, estimations of parameter values in pathway models, such as kinetic orders, rate constants, flux control coefficients or elasticities, from steady-state data are generally based on experiments that measure how a biochemical system responds to small perturbations around the steady state. In contrast, parameter estimation from dynamic data requires time series measurements for all dependent variables. Almost no literature has so far discussed the combined use of both steady-state and transient data for estimating parameter values of biochemical systems. Results In this study we introduce a constrained optimization method for estimating parameter values of biochemical pathway models using steady-state information and transient measurements. The constraints are derived from the flux connectivity relationships of the system at the steady state. Two case studies demonstrate the estimation results with and without flux connectivity constraints. The unconstrained optimal estimates from dynamic data may fit the experiments well, but they do not necessarily maintain the connectivity relationships. As a consequence, individual fluxes may be misrepresented, which may cause problems in later extrapolations. By contrast, the constrained estimation accounting for flux connectivity information reduces this misrepresentation and thereby yields improved model parameters. Conclusion The method combines transient metabolic profiles and steady-state information and leads to the formulation of an inverse parameter estimation task as a constrained optimization problem. Parameter estimation and model selection are simultaneously carried out on the constrained

  7. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Chemical Kinetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian

    2011-01-01

    We discuss the need for devoting time in differential equations courses to modelling and the completion of the modelling process with efforts to estimate the parameters in the models using data. We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of chemical reactions of order n, where n = 0, 1, 2, and apply more general…

  8. Estimating stellar effective temperatures and detected angular parameters using stochastic particle swarm optimization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Chuan-Xin; Yuan, Yuan; Zhang, Hao-Wei; Shuai, Yong; Tan, He-Ping

    2016-09-01

    Considering features of stellar spectral radiation and sky surveys, we established a computational model for stellar effective temperatures, detected angular parameters and gray rates. Using known stellar flux data in some bands, we estimated stellar effective temperatures and detected angular parameters using stochastic particle swarm optimization (SPSO). We first verified the reliability of SPSO, and then determined reasonable parameters that produced highly accurate estimates under certain gray deviation levels. Finally, we calculated 177 860 stellar effective temperatures and detected angular parameters using data from the Midcourse Space Experiment (MSX) catalog. These derived stellar effective temperatures were accurate when we compared them to known values from literatures. This research makes full use of catalog data and presents an original technique for studying stellar characteristics. It proposes a novel method for calculating stellar effective temperatures and detecting angular parameters, and provides theoretical and practical data for finding information about radiation in any band.

  9. Joint state and parameter estimation of the hemodynamic model by particle smoother expectation maximization method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aslan, Serdar; Taylan Cemgil, Ali; Akın, Ata

    2016-08-01

    Objective. In this paper, we aimed for the robust estimation of the parameters and states of the hemodynamic model by using blood oxygen level dependent signal. Approach. In the fMRI literature, there are only a few successful methods that are able to make a joint estimation of the states and parameters of the hemodynamic model. In this paper, we implemented a maximum likelihood based method called the particle smoother expectation maximization (PSEM) algorithm for the joint state and parameter estimation. Main results. Former sequential Monte Carlo methods were only reliable in the hemodynamic state estimates. They were claimed to outperform the local linearization (LL) filter and the extended Kalman filter (EKF). The PSEM algorithm is compared with the most successful method called square-root cubature Kalman smoother (SCKS) for both state and parameter estimation. SCKS was found to be better than the dynamic expectation maximization (DEM) algorithm, which was shown to be a better estimator than EKF, LL and particle filters. Significance. PSEM was more accurate than SCKS for both the state and the parameter estimation. Hence, PSEM seems to be the most accurate method for the system identification and state estimation for the hemodynamic model inversion literature. This paper do not compare its results with Tikhonov-regularized Newton—CKF (TNF-CKF), a recent robust method which works in filtering sense.

  10. Comparing Parameter Estimation Techniques for an Electrical Power Transformer Oil Temperature Prediction Model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morris, A. Terry

    1999-01-01

    This paper examines various sources of error in MIT's improved top oil temperature rise over ambient temperature model and estimation process. The sources of error are the current parameter estimation technique, quantization noise, and post-processing of the transformer data. Results from this paper will show that an output error parameter estimation technique should be selected to replace the current least squares estimation technique. The output error technique obtained accurate predictions of transformer behavior, revealed the best error covariance, obtained consistent parameter estimates, and provided for valid and sensible parameters. This paper will also show that the output error technique should be used to minimize errors attributed to post-processing (decimation) of the transformer data. Models used in this paper are validated using data from a large transformer in service.

  11. Accurate parameters of the oldest known rocky-exoplanet hosting system: Kepler-10 revisited

    SciTech Connect

    Fogtmann-Schulz, Alexandra; Hinrup, Brian; Van Eylen, Vincent; Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jørgen; Kjeldsen, Hans; Silva Aguirre, Víctor; Tingley, Brandon

    2014-02-01

    Since the discovery of Kepler-10, the system has received considerable interest because it contains a small, rocky planet which orbits the star in less than a day. The system's parameters, announced by the Kepler team and subsequently used in further research, were based on only five months of data. We have reanalyzed this system using the full span of 29 months of Kepler photometric data, and obtained improved information about its star and the planets. A detailed asteroseismic analysis of the extended time series provides a significant improvement on the stellar parameters: not only can we state that Kepler-10 is the oldest known rocky-planet-harboring system at 10.41 ± 1.36 Gyr, but these parameters combined with improved planetary parameters from new transit fits gives us the radius of Kepler-10b to within just 125 km. A new analysis of the full planetary phase curve leads to new estimates on the planetary temperature and albedo, which remain degenerate in the Kepler band. Our modeling suggests that the flux level during the occultation is slightly lower than at the transit wings, which would imply that the nightside of this planet has a non-negligible temperature.

  12. Accurate Atmospheric Parameters at Moderate Resolution Using Spectral Indices: Preliminary Application to the MARVELS Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ghezzi, Luan; Dutra-Ferreira, Letícia; Lorenzo-Oliveira, Diego; Porto de Mello, Gustavo F.; Santiago, Basílio X.; De Lee, Nathan; Lee, Brian L.; da Costa, Luiz N.; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Ogando, Ricardo L. C.; Wisniewski, John P.; González Hernández, Jonay I.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Fleming, Scott W.; Schneider, Donald P.; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Cargile, Phillip; Ge, Jian; Pepper, Joshua; Wang, Ji; Paegert, Martin

    2014-12-01

    Studies of Galactic chemical, and dynamical evolution in the solar neighborhood depend on the availability of precise atmospheric parameters (effective temperature T eff, metallicity [Fe/H], and surface gravity log g) for solar-type stars. Many large-scale spectroscopic surveys operate at low to moderate spectral resolution for efficiency in observing large samples, which makes the stellar characterization difficult due to the high degree of blending of spectral features. Therefore, most surveys employ spectral synthesis, which is a powerful technique, but relies heavily on the completeness and accuracy of atomic line databases and can yield possibly correlated atmospheric parameters. In this work, we use an alternative method based on spectral indices to determine the atmospheric parameters of a sample of nearby FGK dwarfs and subgiants observed by the MARVELS survey at moderate resolving power (R ~ 12,000). To avoid a time-consuming manual analysis, we have developed three codes to automatically normalize the observed spectra, measure the equivalent widths of the indices, and, through a comparison of those with values calculated with predetermined calibrations, estimate the atmospheric parameters of the stars. The calibrations were derived using a sample of 309 stars with precise stellar parameters obtained from the analysis of high-resolution FEROS spectra, permitting the low-resolution equivalent widths to be directly related to the stellar parameters. A validation test of the method was conducted with a sample of 30 MARVELS targets that also have reliable atmospheric parameters derived from the high-resolution spectra and spectroscopic analysis based on the excitation and ionization equilibria method. Our approach was able to recover the parameters within 80 K for T eff, 0.05 dex for [Fe/H], and 0.15 dex for log g, values that are lower than or equal to the typical external uncertainties found between different high-resolution analyses. An additional test was

  13. Accurate atmospheric parameters at moderate resolution using spectral indices: Preliminary application to the marvels survey

    SciTech Connect

    Ghezzi, Luan; Da Costa, Luiz N.; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Ogando, Ricardo L. C.; Dutra-Ferreira, Letícia; Lorenzo-Oliveira, Diego; Porto de Mello, Gustavo F.; Santiago, Basílio X.; De Lee, Nathan; Lee, Brian L.; Ge, Jian; Wisniewski, John P.; González Hernández, Jonay I.; Stassun, Keivan G.; Cargile, Phillip; Pepper, Joshua; Fleming, Scott W.; Schneider, Donald P.; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Wang, Ji; and others

    2014-12-01

    Studies of Galactic chemical, and dynamical evolution in the solar neighborhood depend on the availability of precise atmospheric parameters (effective temperature T {sub eff}, metallicity [Fe/H], and surface gravity log g) for solar-type stars. Many large-scale spectroscopic surveys operate at low to moderate spectral resolution for efficiency in observing large samples, which makes the stellar characterization difficult due to the high degree of blending of spectral features. Therefore, most surveys employ spectral synthesis, which is a powerful technique, but relies heavily on the completeness and accuracy of atomic line databases and can yield possibly correlated atmospheric parameters. In this work, we use an alternative method based on spectral indices to determine the atmospheric parameters of a sample of nearby FGK dwarfs and subgiants observed by the MARVELS survey at moderate resolving power (R ∼ 12,000). To avoid a time-consuming manual analysis, we have developed three codes to automatically normalize the observed spectra, measure the equivalent widths of the indices, and, through a comparison of those with values calculated with predetermined calibrations, estimate the atmospheric parameters of the stars. The calibrations were derived using a sample of 309 stars with precise stellar parameters obtained from the analysis of high-resolution FEROS spectra, permitting the low-resolution equivalent widths to be directly related to the stellar parameters. A validation test of the method was conducted with a sample of 30 MARVELS targets that also have reliable atmospheric parameters derived from the high-resolution spectra and spectroscopic analysis based on the excitation and ionization equilibria method. Our approach was able to recover the parameters within 80 K for T {sub eff}, 0.05 dex for [Fe/H], and 0.15 dex for log g, values that are lower than or equal to the typical external uncertainties found between different high-resolution analyses. An

  14. Estimation of raindrop size distribution parameters from a dual-parameter spaceborne radar measurement

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kozu, Toshiaki; Nakamura, Kenji; Meneghini, Robert

    1991-01-01

    A method to estimate raindrop size distribution (DSD) parameters from a combined Zm profile and path-integrated attenuation is shown, and a test result of the method using the data from an aircraft experiment is presented. The 'semi' dual-parameter (SDP) measurement is employed to estimate DSD parameters using the data obtained from an aircraft experiment conducted by Communications Research Laboratory, Tokyo, in conjunction with NASA. The validity of estimated DSD parameters is examined using measured Ka-band radar reflectivities. The estimated path-averaged N(0) is consistent with the Ka/X Ze ratio, and the use of estimated DSD shows excellent agreement between the rain rates estimated from the X-band and K-band Zes. The feasibility of estimating DSD parameters from space is confirmed.

  15. Adjoint method for estimating Jiles-Atherton hysteresis model parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zaman, Mohammad Asif; Hansen, Paul C.; Neustock, Lars T.; Padhy, Punnag; Hesselink, Lambertus

    2016-09-01

    A computationally efficient method for identifying the parameters of the Jiles-Atherton hysteresis model is presented. Adjoint analysis is used in conjecture with an accelerated gradient descent optimization algorithm. The proposed method is used to estimate the Jiles-Atherton model parameters of two different materials. The obtained results are found to be in good agreement with the reported values. By comparing with existing methods of model parameter estimation, the proposed method is found to be computationally efficient and fast converging.

  16. Mental health disorders among individuals with mental retardation: challenges to accurate prevalence estimates.

    PubMed Central

    Kerker, Bonnie D.; Owens, Pamela L.; Zigler, Edward; Horwitz, Sarah M.

    2004-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The objectives of this literature review were to assess current challenges to estimating the prevalence of mental health disorders among individuals with mental retardation (MR) and to develop recommendations to improve such estimates for this population. METHODS: The authors identified 200 peer-reviewed articles, book chapters, government documents, or reports from national and international organizations on the mental health status of people with MR. Based on the study's inclusion criteria, 52 articles were included in the review. RESULTS: Available data reveal inconsistent estimates of the prevalence of mental health disorders among those with MR, but suggest that some mental health conditions are more common among these individuals than in the general population. Two main challenges to identifying accurate prevalence estimates were found: (1) health care providers have difficulty diagnosing mental health conditions among individuals with MR; and (2) methodological limitations of previous research inhibit confidence in study results. CONCLUSIONS: Accurate prevalence estimates are necessary to ensure the availability of appropriate treatment services. To this end, health care providers should receive more training regarding the mental health treatment of individuals with MR. Further, government officials should discuss mechanisms of collecting nationally representative data, and the research community should utilize consistent methods with representative samples when studying mental health conditions in this population. PMID:15219798

  17. Accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks by 3-D remote sensing of individual trees.

    PubMed

    Omasa, Kenji; Qiu, Guo Yu; Watanuki, Kenichi; Yoshimi, Kenji; Akiyama, Yukihide

    2003-03-15

    Forests are one of the most important carbon sinks on Earth. However, owing to the complex structure, variable geography, and large area of forests, accurate estimation of forest carbon stocks is still a challenge for both site surveying and remote sensing. For these reasons, the Kyoto Protocol requires the establishment of methodologies for estimating the carbon stocks of forests (Kyoto Protocol, Article 5). A possible solution to this challenge is to remotely measure the carbon stocks of every tree in an entire forest. Here, we present a methodology for estimating carbon stocks of a Japanese cedar forest by using a high-resolution, helicopter-borne 3-dimensional (3-D) scanning lidar system that measures the 3-D canopy structure of every tree in a forest. Results show that a digital image (10-cm mesh) of woody canopy can be acquired. The treetop can be detected automatically with a reasonable accuracy. The absolute error ranges for tree height measurements are within 42 cm. Allometric relationships of height to carbon stocks then permit estimation of total carbon storage by measurement of carbon stocks of every tree. Thus, we suggest that our methodology can be used to accurately estimate the carbon stocks of Japanese cedar forests at a stand scale. Periodic measurements will reveal changes in forest carbon stocks.

  18. Consistency of Rasch Model Parameter Estimation: A Simulation Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    van den Wollenberg, Arnold L.; And Others

    1988-01-01

    The unconditional--simultaneous--maximum likelihood (UML) estimation procedure for the one-parameter logistic model produces biased estimators. The UML method is inconsistent and is not a good alternative to conditional maximum likelihood method, at least with small numbers of items. The minimum Chi-square estimation procedure produces unbiased…

  19. Complexity Analysis and Parameter Estimation of Dynamic Metabolic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Tian, Li-Ping; Shi, Zhong-Ke; Wu, Fang-Xiang

    2013-01-01

    A metabolic system consists of a number of reactions transforming molecules of one kind into another to provide the energy that living cells need. Based on the biochemical reaction principles, dynamic metabolic systems can be modeled by a group of coupled differential equations which consists of parameters, states (concentration of molecules involved), and reaction rates. Reaction rates are typically either polynomials or rational functions in states and constant parameters. As a result, dynamic metabolic systems are a group of differential equations nonlinear and coupled in both parameters and states. Therefore, it is challenging to estimate parameters in complex dynamic metabolic systems. In this paper, we propose a method to analyze the complexity of dynamic metabolic systems for parameter estimation. As a result, the estimation of parameters in dynamic metabolic systems is reduced to the estimation of parameters in a group of decoupled rational functions plus polynomials (which we call improper rational functions) or in polynomials. Furthermore, by taking its special structure of improper rational functions, we develop an efficient algorithm to estimate parameters in improper rational functions. The proposed method is applied to the estimation of parameters in a dynamic metabolic system. The simulation results show the superior performance of the proposed method. PMID:24233242

  20. Novel serologic biomarkers provide accurate estimates of recent Plasmodium falciparum exposure for individuals and communities

    PubMed Central

    Helb, Danica A.; Tetteh, Kevin K. A.; Felgner, Philip L.; Skinner, Jeff; Hubbard, Alan; Arinaitwe, Emmanuel; Mayanja-Kizza, Harriet; Ssewanyana, Isaac; Kamya, Moses R.; Beeson, James G.; Tappero, Jordan; Smith, David L.; Crompton, Peter D.; Rosenthal, Philip J.; Dorsey, Grant; Drakeley, Christopher J.; Greenhouse, Bryan

    2015-01-01

    Tools to reliably measure Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) exposure in individuals and communities are needed to guide and evaluate malaria control interventions. Serologic assays can potentially produce precise exposure estimates at low cost; however, current approaches based on responses to a few characterized antigens are not designed to estimate exposure in individuals. Pf-specific antibody responses differ by antigen, suggesting that selection of antigens with defined kinetic profiles will improve estimates of Pf exposure. To identify novel serologic biomarkers of malaria exposure, we evaluated responses to 856 Pf antigens by protein microarray in 186 Ugandan children, for whom detailed Pf exposure data were available. Using data-adaptive statistical methods, we identified combinations of antibody responses that maximized information on an individual’s recent exposure. Responses to three novel Pf antigens accurately classified whether an individual had been infected within the last 30, 90, or 365 d (cross-validated area under the curve = 0.86–0.93), whereas responses to six antigens accurately estimated an individual’s malaria incidence in the prior year. Cross-validated incidence predictions for individuals in different communities provided accurate stratification of exposure between populations and suggest that precise estimates of community exposure can be obtained from sampling a small subset of that community. In addition, serologic incidence predictions from cross-sectional samples characterized heterogeneity within a community similarly to 1 y of continuous passive surveillance. Development of simple ELISA-based assays derived from the successful selection strategy outlined here offers the potential to generate rich epidemiologic surveillance data that will be widely accessible to malaria control programs. PMID:26216993

  1. Sample Size Requirements for Estimation of Item Parameters in the Multidimensional Graded Response Model.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Shengyu; Wang, Chun; Weiss, David J

    2016-01-01

    Likert types of rating scales in which a respondent chooses a response from an ordered set of response options are used to measure a wide variety of psychological, educational, and medical outcome variables. The most appropriate item response theory model for analyzing and scoring these instruments when they provide scores on multiple scales is the multidimensional graded response model (MGRM) A simulation study was conducted to investigate the variables that might affect item parameter recovery for the MGRM. Data were generated based on different sample sizes, test lengths, and scale intercorrelations. Parameter estimates were obtained through the flexMIRT software. The quality of parameter recovery was assessed by the correlation between true and estimated parameters as well as bias and root-mean-square-error. Results indicated that for the vast majority of cases studied a sample size of N = 500 provided accurate parameter estimates, except for tests with 240 items when 1000 examinees were necessary to obtain accurate parameter estimates. Increasing sample size beyond N = 1000 did not increase the accuracy of MGRM parameter estimates. PMID:26903916

  2. Estimating parameter of influenza transmission using regularized least square

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nuraini, N.; Syukriah, Y.; Indratno, S. W.

    2014-02-01

    Transmission process of influenza can be presented in a mathematical model as a non-linear differential equations system. In this model the transmission of influenza is determined by the parameter of contact rate of the infected host and susceptible host. This parameter will be estimated using a regularized least square method where the Finite Element Method and Euler Method are used for approximating the solution of the SIR differential equation. The new infected data of influenza from CDC is used to see the effectiveness of the method. The estimated parameter represents the contact rate proportion of transmission probability in a day which can influence the number of infected people by the influenza. Relation between the estimated parameter and the number of infected people by the influenza is measured by coefficient of correlation. The numerical results show positive correlation between the estimated parameters and the infected people.

  3. Determining the accuracy of maximum likelihood parameter estimates with colored residuals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; Klein, Vladislav

    1994-01-01

    An important part of building high fidelity mathematical models based on measured data is calculating the accuracy associated with statistical estimates of the model parameters. Indeed, without some idea of the accuracy of parameter estimates, the estimates themselves have limited value. In this work, an expression based on theoretical analysis was developed to properly compute parameter accuracy measures for maximum likelihood estimates with colored residuals. This result is important because experience from the analysis of measured data reveals that the residuals from maximum likelihood estimation are almost always colored. The calculations involved can be appended to conventional maximum likelihood estimation algorithms. Simulated data runs were used to show that the parameter accuracy measures computed with this technique accurately reflect the quality of the parameter estimates from maximum likelihood estimation without the need for analysis of the output residuals in the frequency domain or heuristically determined multiplication factors. The result is general, although the application studied here is maximum likelihood estimation of aerodynamic model parameters from flight test data.

  4. Two-Dimensional Advective Transport in Ground-Water Flow Parameter Estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Anderman, E.R.; Hill, M.C.; Poeter, E.P.

    1996-01-01

    Nonlinear regression is useful in ground-water flow parameter estimation, but problems of parameter insensitivity and correlation often exist given commonly available hydraulic-head and head-dependent flow (for example, stream and lake gain or loss) observations. To address this problem, advective-transport observations are added to the ground-water flow, parameter-estimation model MODFLOWP using particle-tracking methods. The resulting model is used to investigate the importance of advective-transport observations relative to head-dependent flow observations when either or both are used in conjunction with hydraulic-head observations in a simulation of the sewage-discharge plume at Otis Air Force Base, Cape Cod, Massachusetts, USA. The analysis procedure for evaluating the probable effect of new observations on the regression results consists of two steps: (1) parameter sensitivities and correlations calculated at initial parameter values are used to assess the model parameterization and expected relative contributions of different types of observations to the regression; and (2) optimal parameter values are estimated by nonlinear regression and evaluated. In the Cape Cod parameter-estimation model, advective-transport observations did not significantly increase the overall parameter sensitivity; however: (1) inclusion of advective-transport observations decreased parameter correlation enough for more unique parameter values to be estimated by the regression; (2) realistic uncertainties in advective-transport observations had a small effect on parameter estimates relative to the precision with which the parameters were estimated; and (3) the regression results and sensitivity analysis provided insight into the dynamics of the ground-water flow system, especially the importance of accurate boundary conditions. In this work, advective-transport observations improved the calibration of the model and the estimation of ground-water flow parameters, and use of

  5. Evaluation of the sample needed to accurately estimate outcome-based measurements of dairy welfare on farm.

    PubMed

    Endres, M I; Lobeck-Luchterhand, K M; Espejo, L A; Tucker, C B

    2014-01-01

    score ≥ 3, whereas 30% to estimate the prevalence of severe hock lesions. Estimating very thin and fat cows required that 70 to 80% of the pen be measured. In experiment 2, none of the pen subsamples met our criteria for accurate estimates of herd prevalence. In conclusion, we found that both a higher percentage of the pen must be sampled to generate accurate values for relatively rare parameters and that the population measured plays an important role in prevalence estimates.

  6. A simulation of water pollution model parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kibler, J. F.

    1976-01-01

    A parameter estimation procedure for a water pollution transport model is elaborated. A two-dimensional instantaneous-release shear-diffusion model serves as representative of a simple transport process. Pollution concentration levels are arrived at via modeling of a remote-sensing system. The remote-sensed data are simulated by adding Gaussian noise to the concentration level values generated via the transport model. Model parameters are estimated from the simulated data using a least-squares batch processor. Resolution, sensor array size, and number and location of sensor readings can be found from the accuracies of the parameter estimates.

  7. Dynamic noise, chaos and parameter estimation in population biology.

    PubMed

    Stollenwerk, N; Aguiar, M; Ballesteros, S; Boto, J; Kooi, B; Mateus, L

    2012-04-01

    We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models such as multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even the most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, such as maximum likelihood iterated filtering, reach their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and the deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.

  8. Parameter Estimation in Epidemiology: from Simple to Complex Dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguiar, Maíra; Ballesteros, Sebastién; Boto, João Pedro; Kooi, Bob W.; Mateus, Luís; Stollenwerk, Nico

    2011-09-01

    We revisit the parameter estimation framework for population biological dynamical systems, and apply it to calibrate various models in epidemiology with empirical time series, namely influenza and dengue fever. When it comes to more complex models like multi-strain dynamics to describe the virus-host interaction in dengue fever, even most recently developed parameter estimation techniques, like maximum likelihood iterated filtering, come to their computational limits. However, the first results of parameter estimation with data on dengue fever from Thailand indicate a subtle interplay between stochasticity and deterministic skeleton. The deterministic system on its own already displays complex dynamics up to deterministic chaos and coexistence of multiple attractors.

  9. Estimating the Effective Permittivity for Reconstructing Accurate Microwave-Radar Images.

    PubMed

    Lavoie, Benjamin R; Okoniewski, Michal; Fear, Elise C

    2016-01-01

    We present preliminary results from a method for estimating the optimal effective permittivity for reconstructing microwave-radar images. Using knowledge of how microwave-radar images are formed, we identify characteristics that are typical of good images, and define a fitness function to measure the relative image quality. We build a polynomial interpolant of the fitness function in order to identify the most likely permittivity values of the tissue. To make the estimation process more efficient, the polynomial interpolant is constructed using a locally and dimensionally adaptive sampling method that is a novel combination of stochastic collocation and polynomial chaos. Examples, using a series of simulated, experimental and patient data collected using the Tissue Sensing Adaptive Radar system, which is under development at the University of Calgary, are presented. These examples show how, using our method, accurate images can be reconstructed starting with only a broad estimate of the permittivity range.

  10. Estimating the Effective Permittivity for Reconstructing Accurate Microwave-Radar Images

    PubMed Central

    Lavoie, Benjamin R.; Okoniewski, Michal; Fear, Elise C.

    2016-01-01

    We present preliminary results from a method for estimating the optimal effective permittivity for reconstructing microwave-radar images. Using knowledge of how microwave-radar images are formed, we identify characteristics that are typical of good images, and define a fitness function to measure the relative image quality. We build a polynomial interpolant of the fitness function in order to identify the most likely permittivity values of the tissue. To make the estimation process more efficient, the polynomial interpolant is constructed using a locally and dimensionally adaptive sampling method that is a novel combination of stochastic collocation and polynomial chaos. Examples, using a series of simulated, experimental and patient data collected using the Tissue Sensing Adaptive Radar system, which is under development at the University of Calgary, are presented. These examples show how, using our method, accurate images can be reconstructed starting with only a broad estimate of the permittivity range. PMID:27611785

  11. Estimating the Effective Permittivity for Reconstructing Accurate Microwave-Radar Images.

    PubMed

    Lavoie, Benjamin R; Okoniewski, Michal; Fear, Elise C

    2016-01-01

    We present preliminary results from a method for estimating the optimal effective permittivity for reconstructing microwave-radar images. Using knowledge of how microwave-radar images are formed, we identify characteristics that are typical of good images, and define a fitness function to measure the relative image quality. We build a polynomial interpolant of the fitness function in order to identify the most likely permittivity values of the tissue. To make the estimation process more efficient, the polynomial interpolant is constructed using a locally and dimensionally adaptive sampling method that is a novel combination of stochastic collocation and polynomial chaos. Examples, using a series of simulated, experimental and patient data collected using the Tissue Sensing Adaptive Radar system, which is under development at the University of Calgary, are presented. These examples show how, using our method, accurate images can be reconstructed starting with only a broad estimate of the permittivity range. PMID:27611785

  12. Accurate estimation of object location in an image sequence using helicopter flight data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tang, Yuan-Liang; Kasturi, Rangachar

    1994-01-01

    In autonomous navigation, it is essential to obtain a three-dimensional (3D) description of the static environment in which the vehicle is traveling. For a rotorcraft conducting low-latitude flight, this description is particularly useful for obstacle detection and avoidance. In this paper, we address the problem of 3D position estimation for static objects from a monocular sequence of images captured from a low-latitude flying helicopter. Since the environment is static, it is well known that the optical flow in the image will produce a radiating pattern from the focus of expansion. We propose a motion analysis system which utilizes the epipolar constraint to accurately estimate 3D positions of scene objects in a real world image sequence taken from a low-altitude flying helicopter. Results show that this approach gives good estimates of object positions near the rotorcraft's intended flight-path.

  13. A new set of atomic radii for accurate estimation of solvation free energy by Poisson-Boltzmann solvent model.

    PubMed

    Yamagishi, Junya; Okimoto, Noriaki; Morimoto, Gentaro; Taiji, Makoto

    2014-11-01

    The Poisson-Boltzmann implicit solvent (PB) is widely used to estimate the solvation free energies of biomolecules in molecular simulations. An optimized set of atomic radii (PB radii) is an important parameter for PB calculations, which determines the distribution of dielectric constants around the solute. We here present new PB radii for the AMBER protein force field to accurately reproduce the solvation free energies obtained from explicit solvent simulations. The presented PB radii were optimized using results from explicit solvent simulations of the large systems. In addition, we discriminated PB radii for N- and C-terminal residues from those for nonterminal residues. The performances using our PB radii showed high accuracy for the estimation of solvation free energies at the level of the molecular fragment. The obtained PB radii are effective for the detailed analysis of the solvation effects of biomolecules.

  14. Research on Parameter Estimation Methods for Alpha Stable Noise in a Laser Gyroscope's Random Error.

    PubMed

    Wang, Xueyun; Li, Kui; Gao, Pengyu; Meng, Suxia

    2015-01-01

    Alpha stable noise, determined by four parameters, has been found in the random error of a laser gyroscope. Accurate estimation of the four parameters is the key process for analyzing the properties of alpha stable noise. Three widely used estimation methods-quantile, empirical characteristic function (ECF) and logarithmic moment method-are analyzed in contrast with Monte Carlo simulation in this paper. The estimation accuracy and the application conditions of all methods, as well as the causes of poor estimation accuracy, are illustrated. Finally, the highest precision method, ECF, is applied to 27 groups of experimental data to estimate the parameters of alpha stable noise in a laser gyroscope's random error. The cumulative probability density curve of the experimental data fitted by an alpha stable distribution is better than that by a Gaussian distribution, which verifies the existence of alpha stable noise in a laser gyroscope's random error.

  15. Unrealistic parameter estimates in inverse modelling: A problem or a benefit for model calibration?

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Poeter, E.P.; Hill, M.C.

    1996-01-01

    Estimation of unrealistic parameter values by inverse modelling is useful for constructed model discrimination. This utility is demonstrated using the three-dimensional, groundwater flow inverse model MODFLOWP to estimate parameters in a simple synthetic model where the true conditions and character of the errors are completely known. When a poorly constructed model is used, unreasonable parameter values are obtained even when using error free observations and true initial parameter values. This apparent problem is actually a benefit because it differentiates accurately and inaccurately constructed models. The problems seem obvious for a synthetic problem in which the truth is known, but are obscure when working with field data. Situations in which unrealistic parameter estimates indicate constructed model problems are illustrated in applications of inverse modelling to three field sites and to complex synthetic test cases in which it is shown that prediction accuracy also suffers when constructed models are inaccurate.

  16. Accurate parameters for HD 209458 and its planet from HST spectrophotometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    del Burgo, C.; Allende Prieto, C.

    2016-08-01

    We present updated parameters for the star HD 209458 and its transiting giant planet. The stellar angular diameter θ=0.2254±0.0017 mas is obtained from the average ratio between the absolute flux observed with the Hubble Space Telescope and that of the best-fitting Kurucz model atmosphere. This angular diameter represents an improvement in precision of more than four times compared to available interferometric determinations. The stellar radius R⋆=1.20±0.05 R⊙ is ascertained by combining the angular diameter with the Hipparcos trigonometric parallax, which is the main contributor to its uncertainty, and therefore the radius accuracy should be significantly improved with Gaia's measurements. The radius of the exoplanet Rp=1.41±0.06 RJ is derived from the corresponding transit depth in the light curve and our stellar radius. From the model fitting, we accurately determine the effective temperature, Teff=6071±20 K, which is in perfect agreement with the value of 6070±24 K calculated from the angular diameter and the integrated spectral energy distribution. We also find precise values from recent Padova Isochrones, such as R⋆=1.20±0.06 R⊙ and Teff=6099±41 K. We arrive at a consistent picture from these methods and compare the results with those from the literature.

  17. Exploratory Study for Continuous-time Parameter Estimation of Ankle Dynamics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kukreja, Sunil L.; Boyle, Richard D.

    2014-01-01

    Recently, a parallel pathway model to describe ankle dynamics was proposed. This model provides a relationship between ankle angle and net ankle torque as the sum of a linear and nonlinear contribution. A technique to identify parameters of this model in discrete-time has been developed. However, these parameters are a nonlinear combination of the continuous-time physiology, making insight into the underlying physiology impossible. The stable and accurate estimation of continuous-time parameters is critical for accurate disease modeling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, development of optimal exercise protocols for longterm space exploration, sports medicine, etc. This paper explores the development of a system identification technique to estimate the continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. The effectiveness of this approach is assessed via simulation of a continuous-time model of ankle dynamics with typical parameters found in clinical studies. The results show that although this technique improves estimates, it does not provide robust estimates of continuous-time parameters of ankle dynamics. Due to this we conclude that alternative modeling strategies and more advanced estimation techniques be considered for future work.

  18. Estimation of real-time runway surface contamination using flight data recorder parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, Donovan

    Within this research effort, the development of an analytic process for friction coefficient estimation is presented. Under static equilibrium, the sum of forces and moments acting on the aircraft, in the aircraft body coordinate system, while on the ground at any instant is equal to zero. Under this premise the longitudinal, lateral and normal forces due to landing are calculated along with the individual deceleration components existent when an aircraft comes to a rest during ground roll. In order to validate this hypothesis a six degree of freedom aircraft model had to be created and landing tests had to be simulated on different surfaces. The simulated aircraft model includes a high fidelity aerodynamic model, thrust model, landing gear model, friction model and antiskid model. Three main surfaces were defined in the friction model; dry, wet and snow/ice. Only the parameters recorded by an FDR are used directly from the aircraft model all others are estimated or known a priori. The estimation of unknown parameters is also presented in the research effort. With all needed parameters a comparison and validation with simulated and estimated data, under different runway conditions, is performed. Finally, this report presents results of a sensitivity analysis in order to provide a measure of reliability of the analytic estimation process. Linear and non-linear sensitivity analysis has been performed in order to quantify the level of uncertainty implicit in modeling estimated parameters and how they can affect the calculation of the instantaneous coefficient of friction. Using the approach of force and moment equilibrium about the CG at landing to reconstruct the instantaneous coefficient of friction appears to be a reasonably accurate estimate when compared to the simulated friction coefficient. This is also true when the FDR and estimated parameters are introduced to white noise and when crosswind is introduced to the simulation. After the linear analysis the

  19. Parameter estimation in deformable models using Markov chain Monte Carlo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chalana, Vikram; Haynor, David R.; Sampson, Paul D.; Kim, Yongmin

    1997-04-01

    Deformable models have gained much popularity recently for many applications in medical imaging, such as image segmentation, image reconstruction, and image registration. Such models are very powerful because various kinds of information can be integrated together in an elegant statistical framework. Each such piece of information is typically associated with a user-defined parameter. The values of these parameters can have a significant effect on the results generated using these models. Despite the popularity of deformable models for various applications, not much attention has been paid to the estimation of these parameters. In this paper we describe systematic methods for the automatic estimation of these deformable model parameters. These methods are derived by posing the deformable models as a Bayesian inference problem. Our parameter estimation methods use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for generating samples from highly complex probability distributions.

  20. Kalman filter application for distributed parameter estimation in reactor systems

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, R.P.; Edwards, R.M.

    1996-07-01

    An application of the Kalman filter has been developed for the real-time identification of a distributed parameter in a nuclear power plant. This technique can be used to improve numerical method-based best-estimate simulation of complex systems such as nuclear power plants. The application to a reactor system involves a unique modal model that approximates physical components, such as the reactor, as a coupled oscillator, i.e., a modal model with coupled modes. In this model both states and parameters are described by an orthogonal expansion. The Kalman filter with the sequential least-squares parameter estimation algorithm was used to estimate the modal coefficients of all states and one parameter. Results show that this state feedback algorithm is an effective way to parametrically identify a distributed parameter system in the presence of uncertainties.

  1. Estimating convective boundary layer parameters for diffusion applications. Final report

    SciTech Connect

    Weil, J.

    1983-04-01

    Simple methods are presented for estimating those boundary layer parameters most important in controlling turbulence and diffusion within the convective boundary layer (CBL). These parameters include: surface heat flux, friction velocity, mean wind speed, and boundary layer height. Emphasis is on estimation methods requiring only routinely available data such as may exist at local airports. We focus on the CBL because the main diffusion application of interest is tall stacks, which generally produce their highest ground-level concentrations during convective conditions.

  2. Accurate and quantitative polarization-sensitive OCT by unbiased birefringence estimator with noise-stochastic correction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasaragod, Deepa; Sugiyama, Satoshi; Ikuno, Yasushi; Alonso-Caneiro, David; Yamanari, Masahiro; Fukuda, Shinichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Hong, Young-Joo; Li, En; Makita, Shuichi; Miura, Masahiro; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

    2016-03-01

    Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) is a functional extension of OCT that contrasts the polarization properties of tissues. It has been applied to ophthalmology, cardiology, etc. Proper quantitative imaging is required for a widespread clinical utility. However, the conventional method of averaging to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the contrast of the phase retardation (or birefringence) images introduce a noise bias offset from the true value. This bias reduces the effectiveness of birefringence contrast for a quantitative study. Although coherent averaging of Jones matrix tomography has been widely utilized and has improved the image quality, the fundamental limitation of nonlinear dependency of phase retardation and birefringence to the SNR was not overcome. So the birefringence obtained by PS-OCT was still not accurate for a quantitative imaging. The nonlinear effect of SNR to phase retardation and birefringence measurement was previously formulated in detail for a Jones matrix OCT (JM-OCT) [1]. Based on this, we had developed a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator and quantitative birefringence imaging was demonstrated [2]. However, this first version of estimator had a theoretical shortcoming. It did not take into account the stochastic nature of SNR of OCT signal. In this paper, we present an improved version of the MAP estimator which takes into account the stochastic property of SNR. This estimator uses a probability distribution function (PDF) of true local retardation, which is proportional to birefringence, under a specific set of measurements of the birefringence and SNR. The PDF was pre-computed by a Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation based on the mathematical model of JM-OCT before the measurement. A comparison between this new MAP estimator, our previous MAP estimator [2], and the standard mean estimator is presented. The comparisons are performed both by numerical simulation and in vivo measurements of anterior and

  3. Identification of Neurofuzzy models using GTLS parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Jakubek, Stefan; Hametner, Christoph

    2009-10-01

    In this paper, nonlinear system identification utilizing generalized total least squares (GTLS) methodologies in neurofuzzy systems is addressed. The problem involved with the estimation of the local model parameters of neurofuzzy networks is the presence of noise in measured data. When some or all input channels are subject to noise, the GTLS algorithm yields consistent parameter estimates. In addition to the estimation of the parameters, the main challenge in the design of these local model networks is the determination of the region of validity for the local models. The method presented in this paper is based on an expectation-maximization algorithm that uses a residual from the GTLS parameter estimation for proper partitioning. The performance of the resulting nonlinear model with local parameters estimated by weighted GTLS is a product both of the parameter estimation itself and the associated residual used for the partitioning process. The applicability and benefits of the proposed algorithm are demonstrated by means of illustrative examples and an automotive application. PMID:19336320

  4. READSCAN: a fast and scalable pathogen discovery program with accurate genome relative abundance estimation

    PubMed Central

    Rashid, Mamoon; Pain, Arnab

    2013-01-01

    Summary: READSCAN is a highly scalable parallel program to identify non-host sequences (of potential pathogen origin) and estimate their genome relative abundance in high-throughput sequence datasets. READSCAN accurately classified human and viral sequences on a 20.1 million reads simulated dataset in <27 min using a small Beowulf compute cluster with 16 nodes (Supplementary Material). Availability: http://cbrc.kaust.edu.sa/readscan Contact: arnab.pain@kaust.edu.sa or raeece.naeem@gmail.com Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:23193222

  5. Simultaneous optimal experimental design for in vitro binding parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Ernest, C Steven; Karlsson, Mats O; Hooker, Andrew C

    2013-10-01

    Simultaneous optimization of in vitro ligand binding studies using an optimal design software package that can incorporate multiple design variables through non-linear mixed effect models and provide a general optimized design regardless of the binding site capacity and relative binding rates for a two binding system. Experimental design optimization was employed with D- and ED-optimality using PopED 2.8 including commonly encountered factors during experimentation (residual error, between experiment variability and non-specific binding) for in vitro ligand binding experiments: association, dissociation, equilibrium and non-specific binding experiments. Moreover, a method for optimizing several design parameters (ligand concentrations, measurement times and total number of samples) was examined. With changes in relative binding site density and relative binding rates, different measurement times and ligand concentrations were needed to provide precise estimation of binding parameters. However, using optimized design variables, significant reductions in number of samples provided as good or better precision of the parameter estimates compared to the original extensive sampling design. Employing ED-optimality led to a general experimental design regardless of the relative binding site density and relative binding rates. Precision of the parameter estimates were as good as the extensive sampling design for most parameters and better for the poorly estimated parameters. Optimized designs for in vitro ligand binding studies provided robust parameter estimation while allowing more efficient and cost effective experimentation by reducing the measurement times and separate ligand concentrations required and in some cases, the total number of samples. PMID:23943088

  6. Generalized Limits for Single-Parameter Quantum Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Boixo, Sergio; Flammia, Steven T.; Caves, Carlton M.; Geremia, JM

    2007-03-02

    We develop generalized bounds for quantum single-parameter estimation problems for which the coupling to the parameter is described by intrinsic multisystem interactions. For a Hamiltonian with k-system parameter-sensitive terms, the quantum limit scales as 1/N{sup k}, where N is the number of systems. These quantum limits remain valid when the Hamiltonian is augmented by any parameter-independent interaction among the systems and when adaptive measurements via parameter-independent coupling to ancillas are allowed.

  7. Simultaneous estimation of parameters in the bivariate Emax model.

    PubMed

    Magnusdottir, Bergrun T; Nyquist, Hans

    2015-12-10

    In this paper, we explore inference in multi-response, nonlinear models. By multi-response, we mean models with m > 1 response variables and accordingly m relations. Each parameter/explanatory variable may appear in one or more of the relations. We study a system estimation approach for simultaneous computation and inference of the model and (co)variance parameters. For illustration, we fit a bivariate Emax model to diabetes dose-response data. Further, the bivariate Emax model is used in a simulation study that compares the system estimation approach to equation-by-equation estimation. We conclude that overall, the system estimation approach performs better for the bivariate Emax model when there are dependencies among relations. The stronger the dependencies, the more we gain in precision by using system estimation rather than equation-by-equation estimation.

  8. A comparison of approximate interval estimators for the Bernoulli parameter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leemis, Lawrence; Trivedi, Kishor S.

    1993-01-01

    The goal of this paper is to compare the accuracy of two approximate confidence interval estimators for the Bernoulli parameter p. The approximate confidence intervals are based on the normal and Poisson approximations to the binomial distribution. Charts are given to indicate which approximation is appropriate for certain sample sizes and point estimators.

  9. On the Nature of SEM Estimates of ARMA Parameters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hamaker, Ellen L.; Dolan, Conor V.; Molenaar, Peter C. M.

    2002-01-01

    Reexamined the nature of structural equation modeling (SEM) estimates of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models, replicated the simulation experiments of P. Molenaar, and examined the behavior of the log-likelihood ratio test. Simulation studies indicate that estimates of ARMA parameters observed with SEM software are identical to those…

  10. A Simple Technique for Estimating Latent Trait Mental Test Parameters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jensema, Carl

    1976-01-01

    A simple and economical method for estimating initial parameter values for the normal ogive or logistic latent trait mental test model is outlined. The accuracy of the method in comparison with maximum likelihood estimation is investigated through the use of Monte-Carlo data. (Author)

  11. ASCAL: A Microcomputer Program for Estimating Logistic IRT Item Parameters.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vale, C. David; Gialluca, Kathleen A.

    ASCAL is a microcomputer-based program for calibrating items according to the three-parameter logistic model of item response theory. It uses a modified multivariate Newton-Raphson procedure for estimating item parameters. This study evaluated this procedure using Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques. The current version of ASCAL was then compared to…

  12. Synchronization-based parameter estimation from time series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Parlitz, U.; Junge, L.; Kocarev, L.

    1996-12-01

    The parameters of a given (chaotic) dynamical model are estimated from scalar time series by adapting a computer model until it synchronizes with the given data. This parameter identification method is applied to numerically generated and experimental data from Chua's circuit.

  13. A novel cost function to estimate parameters of oscillatory biochemical systems

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Oscillatory pathways are among the most important classes of biochemical systems with examples ranging from circadian rhythms and cell cycle maintenance. Mathematical modeling of these highly interconnected biochemical networks is needed to meet numerous objectives such as investigating, predicting and controlling the dynamics of these systems. Identifying the kinetic rate parameters is essential for fully modeling these and other biological processes. These kinetic parameters, however, are not usually available from measurements and most of them have to be estimated by parameter fitting techniques. One of the issues with estimating kinetic parameters in oscillatory systems is the irregularities in the least square (LS) cost function surface used to estimate these parameters, which is caused by the periodicity of the measurements. These irregularities result in numerous local minima, which limit the performance of even some of the most robust global optimization algorithms. We proposed a parameter estimation framework to address these issues that integrates temporal information with periodic information embedded in the measurements used to estimate these parameters. This periodic information is used to build a proposed cost function with better surface properties leading to fewer local minima and better performance of global optimization algorithms. We verified for three oscillatory biochemical systems that our proposed cost function results in an increased ability to estimate accurate kinetic parameters as compared to the traditional LS cost function. We combine this cost function with an improved noise removal approach that leverages periodic characteristics embedded in the measurements to effectively reduce noise. The results provide strong evidence on the efficacy of this noise removal approach over the previous commonly used wavelet hard-thresholding noise removal methods. This proposed optimization framework results in more accurate kinetic parameters that

  14. Toward an Accurate Estimate of the Exfoliation Energy of Black Phosphorus: A Periodic Quantum Chemical Approach.

    PubMed

    Sansone, Giuseppe; Maschio, Lorenzo; Usvyat, Denis; Schütz, Martin; Karttunen, Antti

    2016-01-01

    The black phosphorus (black-P) crystal is formed of covalently bound layers of phosphorene stacked together by weak van der Waals interactions. An experimental measurement of the exfoliation energy of black-P is not available presently, making theoretical studies the most important source of information for the optimization of phosphorene production. Here, we provide an accurate estimate of the exfoliation energy of black-P on the basis of multilevel quantum chemical calculations, which include the periodic local Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of second order, augmented by higher-order corrections, which are evaluated with finite clusters mimicking the crystal. Very similar results are also obtained by density functional theory with the D3-version of Grimme's empirical dispersion correction. Our estimate of the exfoliation energy for black-P of -151 meV/atom is substantially larger than that of graphite, suggesting the need for different strategies to generate isolated layers for these two systems. PMID:26651397

  15. Toward an Accurate Estimate of the Exfoliation Energy of Black Phosphorus: A Periodic Quantum Chemical Approach.

    PubMed

    Sansone, Giuseppe; Maschio, Lorenzo; Usvyat, Denis; Schütz, Martin; Karttunen, Antti

    2016-01-01

    The black phosphorus (black-P) crystal is formed of covalently bound layers of phosphorene stacked together by weak van der Waals interactions. An experimental measurement of the exfoliation energy of black-P is not available presently, making theoretical studies the most important source of information for the optimization of phosphorene production. Here, we provide an accurate estimate of the exfoliation energy of black-P on the basis of multilevel quantum chemical calculations, which include the periodic local Møller-Plesset perturbation theory of second order, augmented by higher-order corrections, which are evaluated with finite clusters mimicking the crystal. Very similar results are also obtained by density functional theory with the D3-version of Grimme's empirical dispersion correction. Our estimate of the exfoliation energy for black-P of -151 meV/atom is substantially larger than that of graphite, suggesting the need for different strategies to generate isolated layers for these two systems.

  16. Accurate Estimation of Carotid Luminal Surface Roughness Using Ultrasonic Radio-Frequency Echo

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kitamura, Kosuke; Hasegawa, Hideyuki; Kanai, Hiroshi

    2012-07-01

    It would be useful to measure the minute surface roughness of the carotid arterial wall to detect the early stage of atherosclerosis. In conventional ultrasonography, the axial resolution of a B-mode image depends on the ultrasonic wavelength of 150 µm at 10 MHz because a B-mode image is constructed using the amplitude of the radio-frequency (RF) echo. Therefore, the surface roughness caused by atherosclerosis in an early stage cannot be measured using a conventional B-mode image obtained by ultrasonography because the roughness is 10-20 µm. We have realized accurate transcutaneous estimation of such a minute surface profile using the lateral motion of the carotid arterial wall, which is estimated by block matching of received ultrasonic signals. However, the width of the region where the surface profile is estimated depends on the magnitude of the lateral displacement of the carotid arterial wall (i.e., if the lateral displacement of the arterial wall is 1 mm, the surface profile is estimated in a region of 1 mm in width). In this study, the width was increased by combining surface profiles estimated using several ultrasonic beams. In the present study, we first measured a fine wire, whose diameter was 13 µm, using ultrasonic equipment to obtain an ultrasonic beam profile for determination of the optimal kernel size for block matching based on the correlation between RF echoes. Second, we estimated the lateral displacement and surface profile of a phantom, which had a saw tooth profile on its surface, and compared the surface profile measured by ultrasound with that measured by a laser profilometer. Finally, we estimated the lateral displacement and surface roughness of the carotid arterial wall of three healthy subjects (24-, 23-, and 23-year-old males) using the proposed method.

  17. Accurate fundamental parameters and detailed abundance patterns from spectroscopy of 93 solar-type Kepler targets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bruntt, H.; Basu, S.; Smalley, B.; Chaplin, W. J.; Verner, G. A.; Bedding, T. R.; Catala, C.; Gazzano, J.-C.; Molenda-Żakowicz, J.; Thygesen, A. O.; Uytterhoeven, K.; Hekker, S.; Huber, D.; Karoff, C.; Mathur, S.; Mosser, B.; Appourchaux, T.; Campante, T. L.; Elsworth, Y.; García, R. A.; Handberg, R.; Metcalfe, T. S.; Quirion, P.-O.; Régulo, C.; Roxburgh, I. W.; Stello, D.; Christensen-Dalsgaard, J.; Kawaler, S. D.; Kjeldsen, H.; Morris, R. L.; Quintana, E. V.; Sanderfer, D. T.

    2012-06-01

    We present a detailed spectroscopic study of 93 solar-type stars that are targets of the NASA/Kepler mission and provide detailed chemical composition of each target. We find that the overall metallicity is well represented by Fe lines. Relative abundances of light elements (CNO) and α elements are generally higher for low-metallicity stars. Our spectroscopic analysis benefits from the accurately measured surface gravity from the asteroseismic analysis of the Kepler light curves. The accuracy on the log g parameter is better than 0.03 dex and is held fixed in the analysis. We compare our Teff determination with a recent colour calibration of VT-KS [TYCHO V magnitude minus Two Micron All Sky Survey (2MASS) KS magnitude] and find very good agreement and a scatter of only 80 K, showing that for other nearby Kepler targets, this index can be used. The asteroseismic log g values agree very well with the classical determination using Fe I-Fe II balance, although we find a small systematic offset of 0.08 dex (asteroseismic log g values are lower). The abundance patterns of metals, α elements and the light elements (CNO) show that a simple scaling by [Fe/H] is adequate to represent the metallicity of the stars, except for the stars with metallicity below -0.3, where α-enhancement becomes important. However, this is only important for a very small fraction of the Kepler sample. We therefore recommend that a simple scaling with [Fe/H] be employed in the asteroseismic analyses of large ensembles of solar-type stars.

  18. Consistency of VDJ Rearrangement and Substitution Parameters Enables Accurate B Cell Receptor Sequence Annotation

    PubMed Central

    Ralph, Duncan K.; Matsen, Frederick A.

    2016-01-01

    VDJ rearrangement and somatic hypermutation work together to produce antibody-coding B cell receptor (BCR) sequences for a remarkable diversity of antigens. It is now possible to sequence these BCRs in high throughput; analysis of these sequences is bringing new insight into how antibodies develop, in particular for broadly-neutralizing antibodies against HIV and influenza. A fundamental step in such sequence analysis is to annotate each base as coming from a specific one of the V, D, or J genes, or from an N-addition (a.k.a. non-templated insertion). Previous work has used simple parametric distributions to model transitions from state to state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) of VDJ recombination, and assumed that mutations occur via the same process across sites. However, codon frame and other effects have been observed to violate these parametric assumptions for such coding sequences, suggesting that a non-parametric approach to modeling the recombination process could be useful. In our paper, we find that indeed large modern data sets suggest a model using parameter-rich per-allele categorical distributions for HMM transition probabilities and per-allele-per-position mutation probabilities, and that using such a model for inference leads to significantly improved results. We present an accurate and efficient BCR sequence annotation software package using a novel HMM “factorization” strategy. This package, called partis (https://github.com/psathyrella/partis/), is built on a new general-purpose HMM compiler that can perform efficient inference given a simple text description of an HMM. PMID:26751373

  19. Consistency of VDJ Rearrangement and Substitution Parameters Enables Accurate B Cell Receptor Sequence Annotation.

    PubMed

    Ralph, Duncan K; Matsen, Frederick A

    2016-01-01

    VDJ rearrangement and somatic hypermutation work together to produce antibody-coding B cell receptor (BCR) sequences for a remarkable diversity of antigens. It is now possible to sequence these BCRs in high throughput; analysis of these sequences is bringing new insight into how antibodies develop, in particular for broadly-neutralizing antibodies against HIV and influenza. A fundamental step in such sequence analysis is to annotate each base as coming from a specific one of the V, D, or J genes, or from an N-addition (a.k.a. non-templated insertion). Previous work has used simple parametric distributions to model transitions from state to state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) of VDJ recombination, and assumed that mutations occur via the same process across sites. However, codon frame and other effects have been observed to violate these parametric assumptions for such coding sequences, suggesting that a non-parametric approach to modeling the recombination process could be useful. In our paper, we find that indeed large modern data sets suggest a model using parameter-rich per-allele categorical distributions for HMM transition probabilities and per-allele-per-position mutation probabilities, and that using such a model for inference leads to significantly improved results. We present an accurate and efficient BCR sequence annotation software package using a novel HMM "factorization" strategy. This package, called partis (https://github.com/psathyrella/partis/), is built on a new general-purpose HMM compiler that can perform efficient inference given a simple text description of an HMM. PMID:26751373

  20. Noise reduction for modal parameters estimation using algorithm of solving partially described inverse singular value problem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bao, Xingxian; Cao, Aixia; Zhang, Jing

    2016-07-01

    Modal parameters estimation plays an important role for structural health monitoring. Accurately estimating the modal parameters of structures is more challenging as the measured vibration response signals are contaminated with noise. This study develops a mathematical algorithm of solving the partially described inverse singular value problem (PDISVP) combined with the complex exponential (CE) method to estimate the modal parameters. The PDISVP solving method is to reconstruct an L2-norm optimized (filtered) data matrix from the measured (noisy) data matrix, when the prescribed data constraints are one or several sets of singular triplets of the matrix. The measured data matrix is Hankel structured, which is constructed based on the measured impulse response function (IRF). The reconstructed matrix must maintain the Hankel structure, and be lowered in rank as well. Once the filtered IRF is obtained, the CE method can be applied to extract the modal parameters. Two physical experiments, including a steel cantilever beam with 10 accelerometers mounted, and a steel plate with 30 accelerometers mounted, excited by an impulsive load, respectively, are investigated to test the applicability of the proposed scheme. In addition, the consistency diagram is proposed to exam the agreement among the modal parameters estimated from those different accelerometers. Results indicate that the PDISVP-CE method can significantly remove noise from measured signals and accurately estimate the modal frequencies and damping ratios.

  1. Linear Parameter Varying Control Synthesis for Actuator Failure, Based on Estimated Parameter

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Shin, Jong-Yeob; Wu, N. Eva; Belcastro, Christine

    2002-01-01

    The design of a linear parameter varying (LPV) controller for an aircraft at actuator failure cases is presented. The controller synthesis for actuator failure cases is formulated into linear matrix inequality (LMI) optimizations based on an estimated failure parameter with pre-defined estimation error bounds. The inherent conservatism of an LPV control synthesis methodology is reduced using a scaling factor on the uncertainty block which represents estimated parameter uncertainties. The fault parameter is estimated using the two-stage Kalman filter. The simulation results of the designed LPV controller for a HiMXT (Highly Maneuverable Aircraft Technology) vehicle with the on-line estimator show that the desired performance and robustness objectives are achieved for actuator failure cases.

  2. Parameter estimation on gravitational waves from multiple coalescing binaries

    SciTech Connect

    Mandel, Ilya

    2010-04-15

    Future ground-based and space-borne interferometric gravitational-wave detectors may capture between tens and thousands of binary coalescence events per year. There is a significant and growing body of work on the estimation of astrophysically relevant parameters, such as masses and spins, from the gravitational-wave signature of a single event. This paper introduces a robust Bayesian framework for combining the parameter estimates for multiple events into a parameter distribution of the underlying event population. The framework can be readily deployed as a rapid post-processing tool.

  3. Estimation of Defect's Geometric Parameters with a Thermal Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Protasov, A.; Sineglazov, V.

    2003-03-01

    The problem of estimation of flaws' parameters has been realized in two stages. At the first stage, it has been estimated relationship between temperature difference of a heated sample's surface and geometrical parameters of the flaw. For this purpose we have solved a direct heat conduction problem for various combination of the geometrical sizes of the flaw. At the second stage, we have solved an inverse heat conduction problem using the H - infinity method of identification. The results have shown good convergence to real parameters.

  4. Estimation of nonlinear pilot model parameters including time delay.

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schiess, J. R.; Roland, V. R.; Wells, W. R.

    1972-01-01

    Investigation of the feasibility of using a Kalman filter estimator for the identification of unknown parameters in nonlinear dynamic systems with a time delay. The problem considered is the application of estimation theory to determine the parameters of a family of pilot models containing delayed states. In particular, the pilot-plant dynamics are described by differential-difference equations of the retarded type. The pilot delay, included as one of the unknown parameters to be determined, is kept in pure form as opposed to the Pade approximations generally used for these systems. Problem areas associated with processing real pilot response data are included in the discussion.

  5. EFFECT OF UNCERTAINTIES IN STELLAR MODEL PARAMETERS ON ESTIMATED MASSES AND RADII OF SINGLE STARS

    SciTech Connect

    Basu, Sarbani; Verner, Graham A.; Chaplin, William J.; Elsworth, Yvonne E-mail: gav@bison.ph.bham.ac.uk E-mail: y.p.elsworth@bham.ac.uk

    2012-02-10

    Accurate and precise values of radii and masses of stars are needed to correctly estimate properties of extrasolar planets. We examine the effect of uncertainties in stellar model parameters on estimates of the masses, radii, and average densities of solar-type stars. We find that in the absence of seismic data on solar-like oscillations, stellar masses can be determined to a greater accuracy than either stellar radii or densities; but to get reasonably accurate results the effective temperature, log g, and metallicity must be measured to high precision. When seismic data are available, stellar density is the most well-determined property, followed by radius, with mass the least well-determined property. Uncertainties in stellar convection, quantified in terms of uncertainties in the value of the mixing length parameter, cause the most significant errors in the estimates of stellar properties.

  6. Lamb mode selection for accurate wall loss estimation via guided wave tomography

    SciTech Connect

    Huthwaite, P.; Ribichini, R.; Lowe, M. J. S.; Cawley, P.

    2014-02-18

    Guided wave tomography offers a method to accurately quantify wall thickness losses in pipes and vessels caused by corrosion. This is achieved using ultrasonic waves transmitted over distances of approximately 1–2m, which are measured by an array of transducers and then used to reconstruct a map of wall thickness throughout the inspected region. To achieve accurate estimations of remnant wall thickness, it is vital that a suitable Lamb mode is chosen. This paper presents a detailed evaluation of the fundamental modes, S{sub 0} and A{sub 0}, which are of primary interest in guided wave tomography thickness estimates since the higher order modes do not exist at all thicknesses, to compare their performance using both numerical and experimental data while considering a range of challenging phenomena. The sensitivity of A{sub 0} to thickness variations was shown to be superior to S{sub 0}, however, the attenuation from A{sub 0} when a liquid loading was present was much higher than S{sub 0}. A{sub 0} was less sensitive to the presence of coatings on the surface of than S{sub 0}.

  7. Iterative methods for distributed parameter estimation in parabolic PDE

    SciTech Connect

    Vogel, C.R.; Wade, J.G.

    1994-12-31

    The goal of the work presented is the development of effective iterative techniques for large-scale inverse or parameter estimation problems. In this extended abstract, a detailed description of the mathematical framework in which the authors view these problem is presented, followed by an outline of the ideas and algorithms developed. Distributed parameter estimation problems often arise in mathematical modeling with partial differential equations. They can be viewed as inverse problems; the `forward problem` is that of using the fully specified model to predict the behavior of the system. The inverse or parameter estimation problem is: given the form of the model and some observed data from the system being modeled, determine the unknown parameters of the model. These problems are of great practical and mathematical interest, and the development of efficient computational algorithms is an active area of study.

  8. Parameter estimation of copula functions using an optimization-based method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Abdi, Amin; Hassanzadeh, Yousef; Talatahari, Siamak; Fakheri-Fard, Ahmad; Mirabbasi, Rasoul

    2016-02-01

    Application of the copulas can be useful for the accurate multivariate frequency analysis of hydrological phenomena. There are many copula functions and some methods were proposed for estimating the copula parameters. Since the copula functions are mathematically complicated, estimating of the copula parameter is an effortful work. In the present study, an optimization-based method (OBM) is proposed to obtain the parameters of copulas. The usefulness of the proposed method is illustrated on drought events. For this purpose, three commonly used copulas of Archimedean family, namely, Clayton, Frank, and Gumbel copulas are used to construct the joint probability distribution of drought characteristics of 60 gauging sites located in East-Azarbaijan province, Iran. The performance of OBM was compared with two conventional methods, namely, method of moments and inference function for margins. The results illustrate the supremacy of the OBM to estimate the copula parameters compared to the other considered methods.

  9. Dynamic State Estimation and Parameter Calibration of DFIG based on Ensemble Kalman Filter

    SciTech Connect

    Fan, Rui; Huang, Zhenyu; Wang, Shaobu; Diao, Ruisheng; Meng, Da

    2015-07-30

    With the growing interest in the application of wind energy, doubly fed induction generator (DFIG) plays an essential role in the industry nowadays. To deal with the increasing stochastic variations introduced by intermittent wind resource and responsive loads, dynamic state estimation (DSE) are introduced in any power system associated with DFIGs. However, sometimes this dynamic analysis canould not work because the parameters of DFIGs are not accurate enough. To solve the problem, an ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) method is proposed for the state estimation and parameter calibration tasks. In this paper, a DFIG is modeled and implemented with the EnKF method. Sensitivity analysis is demonstrated regarding the measurement noise, initial state errors and parameter errors. The results indicate this EnKF method has a robust performance on the state estimation and parameter calibration of DFIGs.

  10. Accurate Estimation of the Intrinsic Dimension Using Graph Distances: Unraveling the Geometric Complexity of Datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Granata, Daniele; Carnevale, Vincenzo

    2016-08-01

    The collective behavior of a large number of degrees of freedom can be often described by a handful of variables. This observation justifies the use of dimensionality reduction approaches to model complex systems and motivates the search for a small set of relevant “collective” variables. Here, we analyze this issue by focusing on the optimal number of variable needed to capture the salient features of a generic dataset and develop a novel estimator for the intrinsic dimension (ID). By approximating geodesics with minimum distance paths on a graph, we analyze the distribution of pairwise distances around the maximum and exploit its dependency on the dimensionality to obtain an ID estimate. We show that the estimator does not depend on the shape of the intrinsic manifold and is highly accurate, even for exceedingly small sample sizes. We apply the method to several relevant datasets from image recognition databases and protein multiple sequence alignments and discuss possible interpretations for the estimated dimension in light of the correlations among input variables and of the information content of the dataset.

  11. Accurate Estimation of the Intrinsic Dimension Using Graph Distances: Unraveling the Geometric Complexity of Datasets

    PubMed Central

    Granata, Daniele; Carnevale, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    The collective behavior of a large number of degrees of freedom can be often described by a handful of variables. This observation justifies the use of dimensionality reduction approaches to model complex systems and motivates the search for a small set of relevant “collective” variables. Here, we analyze this issue by focusing on the optimal number of variable needed to capture the salient features of a generic dataset and develop a novel estimator for the intrinsic dimension (ID). By approximating geodesics with minimum distance paths on a graph, we analyze the distribution of pairwise distances around the maximum and exploit its dependency on the dimensionality to obtain an ID estimate. We show that the estimator does not depend on the shape of the intrinsic manifold and is highly accurate, even for exceedingly small sample sizes. We apply the method to several relevant datasets from image recognition databases and protein multiple sequence alignments and discuss possible interpretations for the estimated dimension in light of the correlations among input variables and of the information content of the dataset. PMID:27510265

  12. Accurate Estimation of the Intrinsic Dimension Using Graph Distances: Unraveling the Geometric Complexity of Datasets.

    PubMed

    Granata, Daniele; Carnevale, Vincenzo

    2016-01-01

    The collective behavior of a large number of degrees of freedom can be often described by a handful of variables. This observation justifies the use of dimensionality reduction approaches to model complex systems and motivates the search for a small set of relevant "collective" variables. Here, we analyze this issue by focusing on the optimal number of variable needed to capture the salient features of a generic dataset and develop a novel estimator for the intrinsic dimension (ID). By approximating geodesics with minimum distance paths on a graph, we analyze the distribution of pairwise distances around the maximum and exploit its dependency on the dimensionality to obtain an ID estimate. We show that the estimator does not depend on the shape of the intrinsic manifold and is highly accurate, even for exceedingly small sample sizes. We apply the method to several relevant datasets from image recognition databases and protein multiple sequence alignments and discuss possible interpretations for the estimated dimension in light of the correlations among input variables and of the information content of the dataset. PMID:27510265

  13. Removing the thermal component from heart rate provides an accurate VO2 estimation in forest work.

    PubMed

    Dubé, Philippe-Antoine; Imbeau, Daniel; Dubeau, Denise; Lebel, Luc; Kolus, Ahmet

    2016-05-01

    Heart rate (HR) was monitored continuously in 41 forest workers performing brushcutting or tree planting work. 10-min seated rest periods were imposed during the workday to estimate the HR thermal component (ΔHRT) per Vogt et al. (1970, 1973). VO2 was measured using a portable gas analyzer during a morning submaximal step-test conducted at the work site, during a work bout over the course of the day (range: 9-74 min), and during an ensuing 10-min rest pause taken at the worksite. The VO2 estimated, from measured HR and from corrected HR (thermal component removed), were compared to VO2 measured during work and rest. Varied levels of HR thermal component (ΔHRTavg range: 0-38 bpm) originating from a wide range of ambient thermal conditions, thermal clothing insulation worn, and physical load exerted during work were observed. Using raw HR significantly overestimated measured work VO2 by 30% on average (range: 1%-64%). 74% of VO2 prediction error variance was explained by the HR thermal component. VO2 estimated from corrected HR, was not statistically different from measured VO2. Work VO2 can be estimated accurately in the presence of thermal stress using Vogt et al.'s method, which can be implemented easily by the practitioner with inexpensive instruments.

  14. Accurate distortion estimation and optimal bandwidth allocation for scalable H.264 video transmission over MIMO systems.

    PubMed

    Jubran, Mohammad K; Bansal, Manu; Kondi, Lisimachos P; Grover, Rohan

    2009-01-01

    In this paper, we propose an optimal strategy for the transmission of scalable video over packet-based multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems. The scalable extension of H.264/AVC that provides a combined temporal, quality and spatial scalability is used. For given channel conditions, we develop a method for the estimation of the distortion of the received video and propose different error concealment schemes. We show the accuracy of our distortion estimation algorithm in comparison with simulated wireless video transmission with packet errors. In the proposed MIMO system, we employ orthogonal space-time block codes (O-STBC) that guarantee independent transmission of different symbols within the block code. In the proposed constrained bandwidth allocation framework, we use the estimated end-to-end decoder distortion to optimally select the application layer parameters, i.e., quantization parameter (QP) and group of pictures (GOP) size, and physical layer parameters, i.e., rate-compatible turbo (RCPT) code rate and symbol constellation. Results show the substantial performance gain by using different symbol constellations across the scalable layers as compared to a fixed constellation.

  15. MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blewitt, Geoffrey; Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

    2016-03-01

    Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil-Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj-xi)/(tj-ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil-Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil-Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one-sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root-mean-square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

  16. Methods for accurate estimation of net discharge in a tidal channel

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, M.R.; Bland, R.

    2000-01-01

    Accurate estimates of net residual discharge in tidally affected rivers and estuaries are possible because of recently developed ultrasonic discharge measurement techniques. Previous discharge estimates using conventional mechanical current meters and methods based on stage/discharge relations or water slope measurements often yielded errors that were as great as or greater than the computed residual discharge. Ultrasonic measurement methods consist of: 1) the use of ultrasonic instruments for the measurement of a representative 'index' velocity used for in situ estimation of mean water velocity and 2) the use of the acoustic Doppler current discharge measurement system to calibrate the index velocity measurement data. Methods used to calibrate (rate) the index velocity to the channel velocity measured using the Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler are the most critical factors affecting the accuracy of net discharge estimation. The index velocity first must be related to mean channel velocity and then used to calculate instantaneous channel discharge. Finally, discharge is low-pass filtered to remove the effects of the tides. An ultrasonic velocity meter discharge-measurement site in a tidally affected region of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Rivers was used to study the accuracy of the index velocity calibration procedure. Calibration data consisting of ultrasonic velocity meter index velocity and concurrent acoustic Doppler discharge measurement data were collected during three time periods. Two sets of data were collected during a spring tide (monthly maximum tidal current) and one of data collected during a neap tide (monthly minimum tidal current). The relative magnitude of instrumental errors, acoustic Doppler discharge measurement errors, and calibration errors were evaluated. Calibration error was found to be the most significant source of error in estimating net discharge. Using a comprehensive calibration method, net discharge estimates developed from the three

  17. MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

    PubMed Central

    Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil‐Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj–xi)/(tj–ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil‐Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil‐Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one‐sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root‐mean‐square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences. PMID:27668140

  18. MIDAS robust trend estimator for accurate GPS station velocities without step detection

    PubMed Central

    Kreemer, Corné; Hammond, William C.; Gazeaux, Julien

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Automatic estimation of velocities from GPS coordinate time series is becoming required to cope with the exponentially increasing flood of available data, but problems detectable to the human eye are often overlooked. This motivates us to find an automatic and accurate estimator of trend that is resistant to common problems such as step discontinuities, outliers, seasonality, skewness, and heteroscedasticity. Developed here, Median Interannual Difference Adjusted for Skewness (MIDAS) is a variant of the Theil‐Sen median trend estimator, for which the ordinary version is the median of slopes vij = (xj–xi)/(tj–ti) computed between all data pairs i > j. For normally distributed data, Theil‐Sen and least squares trend estimates are statistically identical, but unlike least squares, Theil‐Sen is resistant to undetected data problems. To mitigate both seasonality and step discontinuities, MIDAS selects data pairs separated by 1 year. This condition is relaxed for time series with gaps so that all data are used. Slopes from data pairs spanning a step function produce one‐sided outliers that can bias the median. To reduce bias, MIDAS removes outliers and recomputes the median. MIDAS also computes a robust and realistic estimate of trend uncertainty. Statistical tests using GPS data in the rigid North American plate interior show ±0.23 mm/yr root‐mean‐square (RMS) accuracy in horizontal velocity. In blind tests using synthetic data, MIDAS velocities have an RMS accuracy of ±0.33 mm/yr horizontal, ±1.1 mm/yr up, with a 5th percentile range smaller than all 20 automatic estimators tested. Considering its general nature, MIDAS has the potential for broader application in the geosciences.

  19. Line Shape Parameters for CO_2 Transitions: Accurate Predictions from Complex Robert-Bonamy Calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamouroux, Julien; Gamache, Robert R.

    2013-06-01

    A model for the prediction of the vibrational dependence of CO_2 half-widths and line shifts for several broadeners, based on a modification of the model proposed by Gamache and Hartmann, is presented. This model allows the half-widths and line shifts for a ro-vibrational transition to be expressed in terms of the number of vibrational quanta exchanged in the transition raised to a power p and a reference ro-vibrational transition. Complex Robert-Bonamy calculations were made for 24 bands for lower rotational quantum numbers J'' from 0 to 160 for N_2-, O_2-, air-, and self-collisions with CO_2. In the model a Quantum Coordinate is defined by (c_1 Δν_1 + c_2 Δν_2 + c_3 Δν_3)^p where a linear least-squares fit to the data by the model expression is made. The model allows the determination of the slope and intercept as a function of rotational transition, broadening gas, and temperature. From these fit data, the half-width, line shift, and the temperature dependence of the half-width can be estimated for any ro-vibrational transition, allowing spectroscopic CO_2 databases to have complete information for the line shape parameters. R. R. Gamache, J.-M. Hartmann, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer. {{83}} (2004), 119. R. R. Gamache, J. Lamouroux, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer. {{117}} (2013), 93.

  20. Estimation of Temperature Dependent Parameters of a Batch Alcoholic Fermentation Process

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Andrade, Rafael Ramos; Rivera, Elmer Ccopa; Costa, Aline C.; Atala, Daniel I. P.; Filho, Francisco Maugeri; Filho, Rubens Maciel

    In this work, a procedure was established to develop a mathematical model considering the effect of temperature on reaction kinetics. Experiments were performed in batch mode in temperatures from 30 to 38°C. The microorganism used was Saccharomyces cerevisiae and the culture media, sugarcane molasses. The objective is to assess the difficulty in updating the kinetic parameters when there are changes in fermentation conditions. We conclude that, although the re-estimation is a time-consuming task, it is possible to accurately describe the process when there are changes in raw material composition if a re-estimation of parameters is performed.

  1. Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

    PubMed

    Luo, Shezhou; Chen, Jing M; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Zeng, Hongcheng; Peng, Dailiang; Li, Dong

    2016-05-30

    Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R2 = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m2), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data. PMID:27410085

  2. Effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on estimation accuracy of crop biophysical parameters.

    PubMed

    Luo, Shezhou; Chen, Jing M; Wang, Cheng; Xi, Xiaohuan; Zeng, Hongcheng; Peng, Dailiang; Li, Dong

    2016-05-30

    Vegetation leaf area index (LAI), height, and aboveground biomass are key biophysical parameters. Corn is an important and globally distributed crop, and reliable estimations of these parameters are essential for corn yield forecasting, health monitoring and ecosystem modeling. Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) is considered an effective technology for estimating vegetation biophysical parameters. However, the estimation accuracies of these parameters are affected by multiple factors. In this study, we first estimated corn LAI, height and biomass (R2 = 0.80, 0.874 and 0.838, respectively) using the original LiDAR data (7.32 points/m2), and the results showed that LiDAR data could accurately estimate these biophysical parameters. Second, comprehensive research was conducted on the effects of LiDAR point density, sampling size and height threshold on the estimation accuracy of LAI, height and biomass. Our findings indicated that LiDAR point density had an important effect on the estimation accuracy for vegetation biophysical parameters, however, high point density did not always produce highly accurate estimates, and reduced point density could deliver reasonable estimation results. Furthermore, the results showed that sampling size and height threshold were additional key factors that affect the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Therefore, the optimal sampling size and the height threshold should be determined to improve the estimation accuracy of biophysical parameters. Our results also implied that a higher LiDAR point density, larger sampling size and height threshold were required to obtain accurate corn LAI estimation when compared with height and biomass estimations. In general, our results provide valuable guidance for LiDAR data acquisition and estimation of vegetation biophysical parameters using LiDAR data.

  3. Accurate Relative Location Estimates for the North Korean Nuclear Tests Using Empirical Slowness Corrections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gibbons, S. J.; Pabian, F.; Näsholm, S. P.; Kværna', T.; Mykkeltveit, S.

    2016-10-01

    modified velocity gradients reduce the residuals, the relative location uncertainties, and the sensitivity to the combination of stations used. The traveltime gradients appear to be overestimated for the regional phases, and teleseismic relative location estimates are likely to be more accurate despite an apparent lower precision. Calibrations for regional phases are essential given that smaller magnitude events are likely not to be recorded teleseismically. We discuss the implications for the absolute event locations. Placing the 2006 event under a local maximum of overburden at 41.293°N, 129.105°E would imply a location of 41.299°N, 129.075°E for the January 2016 event, providing almost optimal overburden for the later four events.

  4. Stellar atmospheric parameter estimation using Gaussian process regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bu, Yude; Pan, Jingchang

    2015-02-01

    As is well known, it is necessary to derive stellar parameters from massive amounts of spectral data automatically and efficiently. However, in traditional automatic methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs) and kernel regression (KR), it is often difficult to optimize the algorithm structure and determine the optimal algorithm parameters. Gaussian process regression (GPR) is a recently developed method that has been proven to be capable of overcoming these difficulties. Here we apply GPR to derive stellar atmospheric parameters from spectra. Through evaluating the performance of GPR on Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) spectra, Medium resolution Isaac Newton Telescope Library of Empirical Spectra (MILES) spectra, ELODIE spectra and the spectra of member stars of galactic globular clusters, we conclude that GPR can derive stellar parameters accurately and precisely, especially when we use data preprocessed with principal component analysis (PCA). We then compare the performance of GPR with that of several widely used regression methods (ANNs, support-vector regression and KR) and find that with GPR it is easier to optimize structures and parameters and more efficient and accurate to extract atmospheric parameters.

  5. Standard Errors of Estimated Latent Variable Scores with Estimated Structural Parameters

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoshino, Takahiro; Shigemasu, Kazuo

    2008-01-01

    The authors propose a concise formula to evaluate the standard error of the estimated latent variable score when the true values of the structural parameters are not known and must be estimated. The formula can be applied to factor scores in factor analysis or ability parameters in item response theory, without bootstrap or Markov chain Monte…

  6. Parameter estimation and forecasting for multiplicative log-normal cascades.

    PubMed

    Leövey, Andrés E; Lux, Thomas

    2012-04-01

    We study the well-known multiplicative log-normal cascade process in which the multiplication of Gaussian and log normally distributed random variables yields time series with intermittent bursts of activity. Due to the nonstationarity of this process and the combinatorial nature of such a formalism, its parameters have been estimated mostly by fitting the numerical approximation of the associated non-Gaussian probability density function to empirical data, cf. Castaing et al. [Physica D 46, 177 (1990)]. More recently, alternative estimators based upon various moments have been proposed by Beck [Physica D 193, 195 (2004)] and Kiyono et al. [Phys. Rev. E 76, 041113 (2007)]. In this paper, we pursue this moment-based approach further and develop a more rigorous generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation procedure to cope with the documented difficulties of previous methodologies. We show that even under uncertainty about the actual number of cascade steps, our methodology yields very reliable results for the estimated intermittency parameter. Employing the Levinson-Durbin algorithm for best linear forecasts, we also show that estimated parameters can be used for forecasting the evolution of the turbulent flow. We compare forecasting results from the GMM and Kiyono et al.'s procedure via Monte Carlo simulations. We finally test the applicability of our approach by estimating the intermittency parameter and forecasting of volatility for a sample of financial data from stock and foreign exchange markets.

  7. Subsonic flight test evaluation of a propulsion system parameter estimation process for the F100 engine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Orme, John S.; Gilyard, Glenn B.

    1992-01-01

    Integrated engine-airframe optimal control technology may significantly improve aircraft performance. This technology requires a reliable and accurate parameter estimator to predict unmeasured variables. To develop this technology base, NASA Dryden Flight Research Facility (Edwards, CA), McDonnell Aircraft Company (St. Louis, MO), and Pratt & Whitney (West Palm Beach, FL) have developed and flight-tested an adaptive performance seeking control system which optimizes the quasi-steady-state performance of the F-15 propulsion system. This paper presents flight and ground test evaluations of the propulsion system parameter estimation process used by the performance seeking control system. The estimator consists of a compact propulsion system model and an extended Kalman filter. The extended Laman filter estimates five engine component deviation parameters from measured inputs. The compact model uses measurements and Kalman-filter estimates as inputs to predict unmeasured propulsion parameters such as net propulsive force and fan stall margin. The ability to track trends and estimate absolute values of propulsion system parameters was demonstrated. For example, thrust stand results show a good correlation, especially in trends, between the performance seeking control estimated and measured thrust.

  8. Effective Temperatures of Selected Main-Sequence Stars with the Most Accurate Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Soydugan, F.; Eker, Z.; Soydugan, E.; Bilir, S.; Gökçe, E. Y.; Steer, I.; Tüysüz, M.; Šenyüz, T.; Demircan, O.

    2015-07-01

    In this study we investigate the distributions of the properties of detached double-lined binaries (DBs) in the mass-luminosity, mass-radius, and mass-effective temperature diagrams. We have improved the classical mass-luminosity relation based on the database of DBs by Eker et al. (2014a). Based on the accurate observational data available to us we propose a method for improving the effective temperatures of eclipsing binaries with accurate mass and radius determinations.

  9. Evaluating parasite densities and estimation of parameters in transmission systems.

    PubMed

    Heinzmann, D; Torgerson, P R

    2008-09-01

    Mathematical modelling of parasite transmission systems can provide useful information about host parasite interactions and biology and parasite population dynamics. In addition good predictive models may assist in designing control programmes to reduce the burden of human and animal disease. Model building is only the first part of the process. These models then need to be confronted with data to obtain parameter estimates and the accuracy of these estimates has to be evaluated. Estimation of parasite densities is central to this. Parasite density estimates can include the proportion of hosts infected with parasites (prevalence) or estimates of the parasite biomass within the host population (abundance or intensity estimates). Parasite density estimation is often complicated by highly aggregated distributions of parasites within the hosts. This causes additional challenges when calculating transmission parameters. Using Echinococcus spp. as a model organism, this manuscript gives a brief overview of the types of descriptors of parasite densities, how to estimate them and on the use of these estimates in a transmission model.

  10. Model-Based MR Parameter Mapping with Sparsity Constraints: Parameter Estimation and Performance Bounds

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Bo; Lam, Fan; Liang, Zhi-Pei

    2014-01-01

    MR parameter mapping (e.g., T1 mapping, T2 mapping, T2∗ mapping) is a valuable tool for tissue characterization. However, its practical utility has been limited due to long data acquisition times. This paper addresses this problem with a new model-based parameter mapping method. The proposed method utilizes a formulation that integrates the explicit signal model with sparsity constraints on the model parameters, enabling direct estimation of the parameters of interest from highly undersampled, noisy k-space data. An efficient greedy-pursuit algorithm is described to solve the resulting constrained parameter estimation problem. Estimation-theoretic bounds are also derived to analyze the benefits of incorporating sparsity constraints and benchmark the performance of the proposed method. The theoretical properties and empirical performance of the proposed method are illustrated in a T2 mapping application example using computer simulations. PMID:24833520

  11. Non-stationary Bayesian estimation of parameters from a body cover model of the vocal folds.

    PubMed

    Hadwin, Paul J; Galindo, Gabriel E; Daun, Kyle J; Zañartu, Matías; Erath, Byron D; Cataldo, Edson; Peterson, Sean D

    2016-05-01

    The evolution of reduced-order vocal fold models into clinically useful tools for subject-specific diagnosis and treatment hinges upon successfully and accurately representing an individual patient in the modeling framework. This, in turn, requires inference of model parameters from clinical measurements in order to tune a model to the given individual. Bayesian analysis is a powerful tool for estimating model parameter probabilities based upon a set of observed data. In this work, a Bayesian particle filter sampling technique capable of estimating time-varying model parameters, as occur in complex vocal gestures, is introduced. The technique is compared with time-invariant Bayesian estimation and least squares methods for determining both stationary and non-stationary parameters. The current technique accurately estimates the time-varying unknown model parameter and maintains tight credibility bounds. The credibility bounds are particularly relevant from a clinical perspective, as they provide insight into the confidence a clinician should have in the model predictions. PMID:27250162

  12. Accurate estimation of human body orientation from RGB-D sensors.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wu; Zhang, Yongdong; Tang, Sheng; Tang, Jinhui; Hong, Richang; Li, Jintao

    2013-10-01

    Accurate estimation of human body orientation can significantly enhance the analysis of human behavior, which is a fundamental task in the field of computer vision. However, existing orientation estimation methods cannot handle the various body poses and appearances. In this paper, we propose an innovative RGB-D-based orientation estimation method to address these challenges. By utilizing the RGB-D information, which can be real time acquired by RGB-D sensors, our method is robust to cluttered environment, illumination change and partial occlusions. Specifically, efficient static and motion cue extraction methods are proposed based on the RGB-D superpixels to reduce the noise of depth data. Since it is hard to discriminate all the 360 (°) orientation using static cues or motion cues independently, we propose to utilize a dynamic Bayesian network system (DBNS) to effectively employ the complementary nature of both static and motion cues. In order to verify our proposed method, we build a RGB-D-based human body orientation dataset that covers a wide diversity of poses and appearances. Our intensive experimental evaluations on this dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method. PMID:23893759

  13. Accurate estimation of human body orientation from RGB-D sensors.

    PubMed

    Liu, Wu; Zhang, Yongdong; Tang, Sheng; Tang, Jinhui; Hong, Richang; Li, Jintao

    2013-10-01

    Accurate estimation of human body orientation can significantly enhance the analysis of human behavior, which is a fundamental task in the field of computer vision. However, existing orientation estimation methods cannot handle the various body poses and appearances. In this paper, we propose an innovative RGB-D-based orientation estimation method to address these challenges. By utilizing the RGB-D information, which can be real time acquired by RGB-D sensors, our method is robust to cluttered environment, illumination change and partial occlusions. Specifically, efficient static and motion cue extraction methods are proposed based on the RGB-D superpixels to reduce the noise of depth data. Since it is hard to discriminate all the 360 (°) orientation using static cues or motion cues independently, we propose to utilize a dynamic Bayesian network system (DBNS) to effectively employ the complementary nature of both static and motion cues. In order to verify our proposed method, we build a RGB-D-based human body orientation dataset that covers a wide diversity of poses and appearances. Our intensive experimental evaluations on this dataset demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed method.

  14. Accurate estimation of the RMS emittance from single current amplifier data

    SciTech Connect

    Stockli, Martin P.; Welton, R.F.; Keller, R.; Letchford, A.P.; Thomae, R.W.; Thomason, J.W.G.

    2002-05-31

    This paper presents the SCUBEEx rms emittance analysis, a self-consistent, unbiased elliptical exclusion method, which combines traditional data-reduction methods with statistical methods to obtain accurate estimates for the rms emittance. Rather than considering individual data, the method tracks the average current density outside a well-selected, variable boundary to separate the measured beam halo from the background. The average outside current density is assumed to be part of a uniform background and not part of the particle beam. Therefore the average outside current is subtracted from the data before evaluating the rms emittance within the boundary. As the boundary area is increased, the average outside current and the inside rms emittance form plateaus when all data containing part of the particle beam are inside the boundary. These plateaus mark the smallest acceptable exclusion boundary and provide unbiased estimates for the average background and the rms emittance. Small, trendless variations within the plateaus allow for determining the uncertainties of the estimates caused by variations of the measured background outside the smallest acceptable exclusion boundary. The robustness of the method is established with complementary variations of the exclusion boundary. This paper presents a detailed comparison between traditional data reduction methods and SCUBEEx by analyzing two complementary sets of emittance data obtained with a Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory and an ISIS H{sup -} ion source.

  15. Estimation of Dynamical Parameters in Atmospheric Data Sets

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wenig, Mark O.

    2004-01-01

    In this study a new technique is used to derive dynamical parameters out of atmospheric data sets. This technique, called the structure tensor technique, can be used to estimate dynamical parameters such as motion, source strengths, diffusion constants or exponential decay rates. A general mathematical framework was developed for the direct estimation of the physical parameters that govern the underlying processes from image sequences. This estimation technique can be adapted to the specific physical problem under investigation, so it can be used in a variety of applications in trace gas, aerosol, and cloud remote sensing. The fundamental algorithm will be extended to the analysis of multi- channel (e.g. multi trace gas) image sequences and to provide solutions to the extended aperture problem. In this study sensitivity studies have been performed to determine the usability of this technique for data sets with different resolution in time and space and different dimensions.

  16. Parameter estimation of general regression neural network using Bayesian approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Choir, Achmad Syahrul; Prasetyo, Rindang Bangun; Ulama, Brodjol Sutijo Suprih; Iriawan, Nur; Fitriasari, Kartika; Dokhi, Mohammad

    2016-02-01

    General Regression Neural Network (GRNN) has been applied in a large number of forecasting/prediction problem. Generally, there are two types of GRNN: GRNN which is based on kernel density; and Mixture Based GRNN (MBGRNN) which is based on adaptive mixture model. The main problem on GRNN modeling lays on how its parameters were estimated. In this paper, we propose Bayesian approach and its computation using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms for estimating the MBGRNN parameters. This method is applied in simulation study. In this study, its performances are measured by using MAPE, MAE and RMSE. The application of Bayesian method to estimate MBGRNN parameters using MCMC is straightforward but it needs much iteration to achieve convergence.

  17. Unscented Kalman filter with parameter identifiability analysis for the estimation of multiple parameters in kinetic models.

    PubMed

    Baker, Syed Murtuza; Poskar, C Hart; Junker, Björn H

    2011-01-01

    In systems biology, experimentally measured parameters are not always available, necessitating the use of computationally based parameter estimation. In order to rely on estimated parameters, it is critical to first determine which parameters can be estimated for a given model and measurement set. This is done with parameter identifiability analysis. A kinetic model of the sucrose accumulation in the sugar cane culm tissue developed by Rohwer et al. was taken as a test case model. What differentiates this approach is the integration of an orthogonal-based local identifiability method into the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), rather than using the more common observability-based method which has inherent limitations. It also introduces a variable step size based on the system uncertainty of the UKF during the sensitivity calculation. This method identified 10 out of 12 parameters as identifiable. These ten parameters were estimated using the UKF, which was run 97 times. Throughout the repetitions the UKF proved to be more consistent than the estimation algorithms used for comparison. PMID:21989173

  18. AMT-200S Motor Glider Parameter and Performance Estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Taylor, Brian R.

    2011-01-01

    Parameter and performance estimation of an instrumented motor glider was conducted at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Dryden Flight Research Center in order to provide the necessary information to create a simulation of the aircraft. An output-error technique was employed to generate estimates from doublet maneuvers, and performance estimates were compared with results from a well-known flight-test evaluation of the aircraft in order to provide a complete set of data. Aircraft specifications are given along with information concerning instrumentation, flight-test maneuvers flown, and the output-error technique. Discussion of Cramer-Rao bounds based on both white noise and colored noise assumptions is given. Results include aerodynamic parameter and performance estimates for a range of angles of attack.

  19. Quick and accurate estimation of the elastic constants using the minimum image method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tretiakov, Konstantin V.; Wojciechowski, Krzysztof W.

    2015-04-01

    A method for determining the elastic properties using the minimum image method (MIM) is proposed and tested on a model system of particles interacting by the Lennard-Jones (LJ) potential. The elastic constants of the LJ system are determined in the thermodynamic limit, N → ∞, using the Monte Carlo (MC) method in the NVT and NPT ensembles. The simulation results show that when determining the elastic constants, the contribution of long-range interactions cannot be ignored, because that would lead to erroneous results. In addition, the simulations have revealed that the inclusion of further interactions of each particle with all its minimum image neighbors even in case of small systems leads to results which are very close to the values of elastic constants in the thermodynamic limit. This enables one for a quick and accurate estimation of the elastic constants using very small samples.

  20. Pitfalls in accurate estimation of overdiagnosis: implications for screening policy and compliance.

    PubMed

    Feig, Stephen A

    2013-01-01

    Stories in the public media that 30 to 50% of screen-detected breast cancers are overdiagnosed dissuade women from being screened because overdiagnosed cancers would never result in death if undetected yet do result in unnecessary treatment. However, such concerns are unwarranted because the frequency of overdiagnosis, when properly calculated, is only 0 to 5%. In the previous issue of Breast Cancer Research, Duffy and Parmar report that accurate estimation of the rate of overdiagnosis recognizes the effect of lead time on detection rates and the consequent requirement for an adequate number of years of follow-up. These indispensable elements were absent from highly publicized studies that overestimated the frequency of overdiagnosis.

  1. Developing an Interpretation of Item Parameters for Personality Items: Content Correlates of Parameter Estimates.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zickar, Michael J.; Ury, Karen L.

    2002-01-01

    Attempted to relate content features of personality items to item parameter estimates from the partial credit model of E. Muraki (1990) by administering the Adjective Checklist (L. Goldberg, 1992) to 329 undergraduates. As predicted, the discrimination parameter was related to the item subtlety ratings of personality items but the level of word…

  2. Inversion of canopy reflectance models for estimation of vegetation parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goel, Narendra S.

    1987-01-01

    One of the keys to successful remote sensing of vegetation is to be able to estimate important agronomic parameters like leaf area index (LAI) and biomass (BM) from the bidirectional canopy reflectance (CR) data obtained by a space-shuttle or satellite borne sensor. One approach for such an estimation is through inversion of CR models which relate these parameters to CR. The feasibility of this approach was shown. The overall objective of the research carried out was to address heretofore uninvestigated but important fundamental issues, develop the inversion technique further, and delineate its strengths and limitations.

  3. Estimation of octanol/water partition coefficients using LSER parameters

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Luehrs, Dean C.; Hickey, James P.; Godbole, Kalpana A.; Rogers, Tony N.

    1998-01-01

    The logarithms of octanol/water partition coefficients, logKow, were regressed against the linear solvation energy relationship (LSER) parameters for a training set of 981 diverse organic chemicals. The standard deviation for logKow was 0.49. The regression equation was then used to estimate logKow for a test of 146 chemicals which included pesticides and other diverse polyfunctional compounds. Thus the octanol/water partition coefficient may be estimated by LSER parameters without elaborate software but only moderate accuracy should be expected.

  4. Estimation of the elastic Earth parameters from the SLR technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rutkowska, Milena

    ABSTRACT. The global elastic parameters (Love and Shida numbers) associated with the tide variations for satellite and stations are estimated from the Satellite Laser Ranging (SLR) data. The study is based on satellite observations taken by the global network of the ground stations during the period from January 1, 2005 until January 1, 2007 for monthly orbital arcs of Lageos 1 satellite. The observation equations contain unknown for orbital arcs, some constants and elastic Earth parameters which describe tide variations. The adjusted values are discussed and compared with geophysical estimations of Love numbers. All computations were performed employing the NASA software GEODYN II (eddy et al. 1990).

  5. Parameter Estimation for Single Diode Models of Photovoltaic Modules

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, Clifford

    2015-03-01

    Many popular models for photovoltaic system performance employ a single diode model to compute the I - V curve for a module or string of modules at given irradiance and temperature conditions. A single diode model requires a number of parameters to be estimated from measured I - V curves. Many available parameter estimation methods use only short circuit, o pen circuit and maximum power points for a single I - V curve at standard test conditions together with temperature coefficients determined separately for individual cells. In contrast, module testing frequently records I - V curves over a wide range of irradi ance and temperature conditions which, when available , should also be used to parameterize the performance model. We present a parameter estimation method that makes use of a fu ll range of available I - V curves. We verify the accuracy of the method by recov ering known parameter values from simulated I - V curves . We validate the method by estimating model parameters for a module using outdoor test data and predicting the outdoor performance of the module.

  6. A Simple yet Accurate Method for the Estimation of the Biovolume of Planktonic Microorganisms.

    PubMed

    Saccà, Alessandro

    2016-01-01

    Determining the biomass of microbial plankton is central to the study of fluxes of energy and materials in aquatic ecosystems. This is typically accomplished by applying proper volume-to-carbon conversion factors to group-specific abundances and biovolumes. A critical step in this approach is the accurate estimation of biovolume from two-dimensional (2D) data such as those available through conventional microscopy techniques or flow-through imaging systems. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method for the assessment of the biovolume of planktonic microorganisms, which works with any image analysis system allowing for the measurement of linear distances and the estimation of the cross sectional area of an object from a 2D digital image. The proposed method is based on Archimedes' principle about the relationship between the volume of a sphere and that of a cylinder in which the sphere is inscribed, plus a coefficient of 'unellipticity' introduced here. Validation and careful evaluation of the method are provided using a variety of approaches. The new method proved to be highly precise with all convex shapes characterised by approximate rotational symmetry, and combining it with an existing method specific for highly concave or branched shapes allows covering the great majority of cases with good reliability. Thanks to its accuracy, consistency, and low resources demand, the new method can conveniently be used in substitution of any extant method designed for convex shapes, and can readily be coupled with automated cell imaging technologies, including state-of-the-art flow-through imaging devices. PMID:27195667

  7. A Simple yet Accurate Method for the Estimation of the Biovolume of Planktonic Microorganisms

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Determining the biomass of microbial plankton is central to the study of fluxes of energy and materials in aquatic ecosystems. This is typically accomplished by applying proper volume-to-carbon conversion factors to group-specific abundances and biovolumes. A critical step in this approach is the accurate estimation of biovolume from two-dimensional (2D) data such as those available through conventional microscopy techniques or flow-through imaging systems. This paper describes a simple yet accurate method for the assessment of the biovolume of planktonic microorganisms, which works with any image analysis system allowing for the measurement of linear distances and the estimation of the cross sectional area of an object from a 2D digital image. The proposed method is based on Archimedes’ principle about the relationship between the volume of a sphere and that of a cylinder in which the sphere is inscribed, plus a coefficient of ‘unellipticity’ introduced here. Validation and careful evaluation of the method are provided using a variety of approaches. The new method proved to be highly precise with all convex shapes characterised by approximate rotational symmetry, and combining it with an existing method specific for highly concave or branched shapes allows covering the great majority of cases with good reliability. Thanks to its accuracy, consistency, and low resources demand, the new method can conveniently be used in substitution of any extant method designed for convex shapes, and can readily be coupled with automated cell imaging technologies, including state-of-the-art flow-through imaging devices. PMID:27195667

  8. Estimation of atmospheric turbulence parameters with wave front sensor data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iroshnikov, N. G.; Koryabin, A. V.; Larichev, A. V.; Shmalhausen, V. I.; Andreeva, M. S.

    2012-11-01

    Estimates of atmospheric turbulence parameters can be calculated on the basis of data, obtained with wave front sensor. The method described is based on decomposition of phase fluctuations into Zernike series and analysis of statistics of this decomposition coefficients. Estimates of turbulence outer scale L0 and refractive index structure constant C2/n obtained in experiments with turbulence in water cell showed good agreement with previous results.

  9. Parameter estimation for the Euler-Bernoulli-beam

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Graif, E.; Kunisch, K.

    1984-01-01

    An approximation involving cubic spline functions for parameter estimation problems in the Euler-Bernoulli-beam equation (phrased as an optimization problem with respect to the parameters) is described and convergence is proved. The resulting algorithm was implemented and several of the test examples are documented. It is observed that the use of penalty terms in the cost functional can improve the rate of convergence.

  10. Human ECG signal parameters estimation during controlled physical activity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Maciejewski, Marcin; Surtel, Wojciech; Dzida, Grzegorz

    2015-09-01

    ECG signal parameters are commonly used indicators of human health condition. In most cases the patient should remain stationary during the examination to decrease the influence of muscle artifacts. During physical activity, the noise level increases significantly. The ECG signals were acquired during controlled physical activity on a stationary bicycle and during rest. Afterwards, the signals were processed using a method based on Pan-Tompkins algorithms to estimate their parameters and to test the method.

  11. Accurate biopsy-needle depth estimation in limited-angle tomography using multi-view geometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van der Sommen, Fons; Zinger, Sveta; de With, Peter H. N.

    2016-03-01

    Recently, compressed-sensing based algorithms have enabled volume reconstruction from projection images acquired over a relatively small angle (θ < 20°). These methods enable accurate depth estimation of surgical tools with respect to anatomical structures. However, they are computationally expensive and time consuming, rendering them unattractive for image-guided interventions. We propose an alternative approach for depth estimation of biopsy needles during image-guided interventions, in which we split the problem into two parts and solve them independently: needle-depth estimation and volume reconstruction. The complete proposed system consists of the previous two steps, preceded by needle extraction. First, we detect the biopsy needle in the projection images and remove it by interpolation. Next, we exploit epipolar geometry to find point-to-point correspondences in the projection images to triangulate the 3D position of the needle in the volume. Finally, we use the interpolated projection images to reconstruct the local anatomical structures and indicate the position of the needle within this volume. For validation of the algorithm, we have recorded a full CT scan of a phantom with an inserted biopsy needle. The performance of our approach ranges from a median error of 2.94 mm for an distributed viewing angle of 1° down to an error of 0.30 mm for an angle larger than 10°. Based on the results of this initial phantom study, we conclude that multi-view geometry offers an attractive alternative to time-consuming iterative methods for the depth estimation of surgical tools during C-arm-based image-guided interventions.

  12. An Indirect System Identification Technique for Stable Estimation of Continuous-Time Parameters of the Vestibulo-Ocular Reflex (VOR)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kukreja, Sunil L.; Wallin, Ragnar; Boyle, Richard D.

    2013-01-01

    The vestibulo-ocular reflex (VOR) is a well-known dual mode bifurcating system that consists of slow and fast modes associated with nystagmus and saccade, respectively. Estimation of continuous-time parameters of nystagmus and saccade models are known to be sensitive to estimation methodology, noise and sampling rate. The stable and accurate estimation of these parameters are critical for accurate disease modelling, clinical diagnosis, robotic control strategies, mission planning for space exploration and pilot safety, etc. This paper presents a novel indirect system identification method for the estimation of continuous-time parameters of VOR employing standardised least-squares with dual sampling rates in a sparse structure. This approach permits the stable and simultaneous estimation of both nystagmus and saccade data. The efficacy of this approach is demonstrated via simulation of a continuous-time model of VOR with typical parameters found in clinical studies and in the presence of output additive noise.

  13. Bayesian parameter estimation in spectral quantitative photoacoustic tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pulkkinen, Aki; Cox, Ben T.; Arridge, Simon R.; Kaipio, Jari P.; Tarvainen, Tanja

    2016-03-01

    Photoacoustic tomography (PAT) is an imaging technique combining strong contrast of optical imaging to high spatial resolution of ultrasound imaging. These strengths are achieved via photoacoustic effect, where a spatial absorption of light pulse is converted into a measurable propagating ultrasound wave. The method is seen as a potential tool for small animal imaging, pre-clinical investigations, study of blood vessels and vasculature, as well as for cancer imaging. The goal in PAT is to form an image of the absorbed optical energy density field via acoustic inverse problem approaches from the measured ultrasound data. Quantitative PAT (QPAT) proceeds from these images and forms quantitative estimates of the optical properties of the target. This optical inverse problem of QPAT is illposed. To alleviate the issue, spectral QPAT (SQPAT) utilizes PAT data formed at multiple optical wavelengths simultaneously with optical parameter models of tissue to form quantitative estimates of the parameters of interest. In this work, the inverse problem of SQPAT is investigated. Light propagation is modelled using the diffusion equation. Optical absorption is described with chromophore concentration weighted sum of known chromophore absorption spectra. Scattering is described by Mie scattering theory with an exponential power law. In the inverse problem, the spatially varying unknown parameters of interest are the chromophore concentrations, the Mie scattering parameters (power law factor and the exponent), and Gruneisen parameter. The inverse problem is approached with a Bayesian method. It is numerically demonstrated, that estimation of all parameters of interest is possible with the approach.

  14. Parameter estimation for support vector anomaly detection in hyperspectral imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Meth, Reuven; Ahn, James; Banerjee, Amit; Juang, Radford; Burlina, Philippe

    2012-06-01

    Hyperspectral Image (HSI) anomaly detectors typically employ local background modeling techniques to facilitate target detection from surrounding clutter. Global background modeling has been challenging due to the multi-modal content that must be automatically modeled to enable target/background separation. We have previously developed a support vector based anomaly detector that does not impose an a priori parametric model on the data and enables multi-modal modeling of large background regions with inhomogeneous content. Effective application of this support vector approach requires the setting of a kernel parameter that controls the tightness of the model fit to the background data. Estimation of the kernel parameter has typically considered Type I / false-positive error optimization due to the availability of background samples, but this approach has not proven effective for general application since these methods only control the false alarm level, without any optimization for maximizing detection. Parameter optimization with respect to Type II / false-negative error has remained elusive due to the lack of sufficient target training exemplars. We present an approach that optimizes parameter selection based on both Type I and Type II error criteria by introducing outliers based on existing hypercube content to guide parameter estimation. The approach has been applied to hyperspectral imagery and has demonstrated automatic estimation of parameters consistent with those that were found to be optimal, thereby providing an automated method for general anomaly detection applications.

  15. SCoPE: an efficient method of Cosmological Parameter Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Das, Santanu; Souradeep, Tarun E-mail: tarun@iucaa.ernet.in

    2014-07-01

    Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler is widely used for cosmological parameter estimation from CMB and other data. However, due to the intrinsic serial nature of the MCMC sampler, convergence is often very slow. Here we present a fast and independently written Monte Carlo method for cosmological parameter estimation named as Slick Cosmological Parameter Estimator (SCoPE), that employs delayed rejection to increase the acceptance rate of a chain, and pre-fetching that helps an individual chain to run on parallel CPUs. An inter-chain covariance update is also incorporated to prevent clustering of the chains allowing faster and better mixing of the chains. We use an adaptive method for covariance calculation to calculate and update the covariance automatically as the chains progress. Our analysis shows that the acceptance probability of each step in SCoPE is more than 95% and the convergence of the chains are faster. Using SCoPE, we carry out some cosmological parameter estimations with different cosmological models using WMAP-9 and Planck results. One of the current research interests in cosmology is quantifying the nature of dark energy. We analyze the cosmological parameters from two illustrative commonly used parameterisations of dark energy models. We also asses primordial helium fraction in the universe can be constrained by the present CMB data from WMAP-9 and Planck. The results from our MCMC analysis on the one hand helps us to understand the workability of the SCoPE better, on the other hand it provides a completely independent estimation of cosmological parameters from WMAP-9 and Planck data.

  16. Estimating soil hydraulic parameters from transient flow experiments in a centrifuge using parameter optimization technique

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simunek, J.; Nimmo, J.R.

    2005-01-01

    A modified version of the Hydrus software package that can directly or inversely simulate water flow in a transient centrifugal field is presented. The inverse solver for parameter estimation of the soil hydraulic parameters is then applied to multirotation transient flow experiments in a centrifuge. Using time-variable water contents measured at a sequence of several rotation speeds, soil hydraulic properties were successfully estimated by numerical inversion of transient experiments. The inverse method was then evaluated by comparing estimated soil hydraulic properties with those determined independently using an equilibrium analysis. The optimized soil hydraulic properties compared well with those determined using equilibrium analysis and steady state experiment. Multirotation experiments in a centrifuge not only offer significant time savings by accelerating time but also provide significantly more information for the parameter estimation procedure compared to multistep outflow experiments in a gravitational field. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  17. Can student health professionals accurately estimate alcohol content in commonly occurring drinks?

    PubMed Central

    Sinclair, Julia; Searle, Emma

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Correct identification of alcohol as a contributor to, or comorbidity of, many psychiatric diseases requires health professionals to be competent and confident to take an accurate alcohol history. Being able to estimate (or calculate) the alcohol content in commonly consumed drinks is a prerequisite for quantifying levels of alcohol consumption. The aim of this study was to assess this ability in medical and nursing students. Methods: A cross-sectional survey of 891 medical and nursing students across different years of training was conducted. Students were asked the alcohol content of 10 different alcoholic drinks by seeing a slide of the drink (with picture, volume and percentage of alcohol by volume) for 30 s. Results: Overall, the mean number of correctly estimated drinks (out of the 10 tested) was 2.4, increasing to just over 3 if a 10% margin of error was used. Wine and premium strength beers were underestimated by over 50% of students. Those who drank alcohol themselves, or who were further on in their clinical training, did better on the task, but overall the levels remained low. Conclusions: Knowledge of, or the ability to work out, the alcohol content of commonly consumed drinks is poor, and further research is needed to understand the reasons for this and the impact this may have on the likelihood to undertake screening or initiate treatment. PMID:27536344

  18. Ocean Lidar Measurements of Beam Attenuation and a Roadmap to Accurate Phytoplankton Biomass Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hu, Yongxiang; Behrenfeld, Mike; Hostetler, Chris; Pelon, Jacques; Trepte, Charles; Hair, John; Slade, Wayne; Cetinic, Ivona; Vaughan, Mark; Lu, Xiaomei; Zhai, Pengwang; Weimer, Carl; Winker, David; Verhappen, Carolus C.; Butler, Carolyn; Liu, Zhaoyan; Hunt, Bill; Omar, Ali; Rodier, Sharon; Lifermann, Anne; Josset, Damien; Hou, Weilin; MacDonnell, David; Rhew, Ray

    2016-06-01

    Beam attenuation coefficient, c, provides an important optical index of plankton standing stocks, such as phytoplankton biomass and total particulate carbon concentration. Unfortunately, c has proven difficult to quantify through remote sensing. Here, we introduce an innovative approach for estimating c using lidar depolarization measurements and diffuse attenuation coefficients from ocean color products or lidar measurements of Brillouin scattering. The new approach is based on a theoretical formula established from Monte Carlo simulations that links the depolarization ratio of sea water to the ratio of diffuse attenuation Kd and beam attenuation C (i.e., a multiple scattering factor). On July 17, 2014, the CALIPSO satellite was tilted 30° off-nadir for one nighttime orbit in order to minimize ocean surface backscatter and demonstrate the lidar ocean subsurface measurement concept from space. Depolarization ratios of ocean subsurface backscatter are measured accurately. Beam attenuation coefficients computed from the depolarization ratio measurements compare well with empirical estimates from ocean color measurements. We further verify the beam attenuation coefficient retrievals using aircraft-based high spectral resolution lidar (HSRL) data that are collocated with in-water optical measurements.

  19. mBEEF: An accurate semi-local Bayesian error estimation density functional

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wellendorff, Jess; Lundgaard, Keld T.; Jacobsen, Karsten W.; Bligaard, Thomas

    2014-04-01

    We present a general-purpose meta-generalized gradient approximation (MGGA) exchange-correlation functional generated within the Bayesian error estimation functional framework [J. Wellendorff, K. T. Lundgaard, A. Møgelhøj, V. Petzold, D. D. Landis, J. K. Nørskov, T. Bligaard, and K. W. Jacobsen, Phys. Rev. B 85, 235149 (2012)]. The functional is designed to give reasonably accurate density functional theory (DFT) predictions of a broad range of properties in materials physics and chemistry, while exhibiting a high degree of transferability. Particularly, it improves upon solid cohesive energies and lattice constants over the BEEF-vdW functional without compromising high performance on adsorption and reaction energies. We thus expect it to be particularly well-suited for studies in surface science and catalysis. An ensemble of functionals for error estimation in DFT is an intrinsic feature of exchange-correlation models designed this way, and we show how the Bayesian ensemble may provide a systematic analysis of the reliability of DFT based simulations.

  20. Greater contrast in Martian hydrological history from more accurate estimates of paleodischarge

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jacobsen, R. E.; Burr, D. M.

    2016-09-01

    Correlative width-discharge relationships from the Missouri River Basin are commonly used to estimate fluvial paleodischarge on Mars. However, hydraulic geometry provides alternative, and causal, width-discharge relationships derived from broader samples of channels, including those in reduced-gravity (submarine) environments. Comparison of these relationships implies that causal relationships from hydraulic geometry should yield more accurate and more precise discharge estimates. Our remote analysis of a Martian-terrestrial analog channel, combined with in situ discharge data, substantiates this implication. Applied to Martian features, these results imply that paleodischarges of interior channels of Noachian-Hesperian (~3.7 Ga) valley networks have been underestimated by a factor of several, whereas paleodischarges for smaller fluvial deposits of the Late Hesperian-Early Amazonian (~3.0 Ga) have been overestimated. Thus, these new paleodischarges significantly magnify the contrast between early and late Martian hydrologic activity. Width-discharge relationships from hydraulic geometry represent validated tools for quantifying fluvial input near candidate landing sites of upcoming missions.

  1. Cubic spline approximation techniques for parameter estimation in distributed systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Banks, H. T.; Crowley, J. M.; Kunisch, K.

    1983-01-01

    Approximation schemes employing cubic splines in the context of a linear semigroup framework are developed for both parabolic and hyperbolic second-order partial differential equation parameter estimation problems. Convergence results are established for problems with linear and nonlinear systems, and a summary of numerical experiments with the techniques proposed is given.

  2. Synchronous Generator Model Parameter Estimation Based on Noisy Dynamic Waveforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berhausen, Sebastian; Paszek, Stefan

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, there have occurred system failures in many power systems all over the world. They have resulted in a lack of power supply to a large number of recipients. To minimize the risk of occurrence of power failures, it is necessary to perform multivariate investigations, including simulations, of power system operating conditions. To conduct reliable simulations, the current base of parameters of the models of generating units, containing the models of synchronous generators, is necessary. In the paper, there is presented a method for parameter estimation of a synchronous generator nonlinear model based on the analysis of selected transient waveforms caused by introducing a disturbance (in the form of a pseudorandom signal) in the generator voltage regulation channel. The parameter estimation was performed by minimizing the objective function defined as a mean square error for deviations between the measurement waveforms and the waveforms calculated based on the generator mathematical model. A hybrid algorithm was used for the minimization of the objective function. In the paper, there is described a filter system used for filtering the noisy measurement waveforms. The calculation results of the model of a 44 kW synchronous generator installed on a laboratory stand of the Institute of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science of the Silesian University of Technology are also given. The presented estimation method can be successfully applied to parameter estimation of different models of high-power synchronous generators operating in a power system.

  3. Parameter Estimates in Differential Equation Models for Population Growth

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Winkel, Brian J.

    2011-01-01

    We estimate the parameters present in several differential equation models of population growth, specifically logistic growth models and two-species competition models. We discuss student-evolved strategies and offer "Mathematica" code for a gradient search approach. We use historical (1930s) data from microbial studies of the Russian biologist,…

  4. Estimation of coefficients and boundary parameters in hyperbolic systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Banks, H. T.; Murphy, K. A.

    1984-01-01

    Semi-discrete Galerkin approximation schemes are considered in connection with inverse problems for the estimation of spatially varying coefficients and boundary condition parameters in second order hyperbolic systems typical of those arising in 1-D surface seismic problems. Spline based algorithms are proposed for which theoretical convergence results along with a representative sample of numerical findings are given.

  5. Online vegetation parameter estimation using passive microwave remote sensing observations

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    In adaptive system identification the Kalman filter can be used to identify the coefficient of the observation operator of a linear system. Here the ensemble Kalman filter is tested for adaptive online estimation of the vegetation opacity parameter of a radiative transfer model. A state augmentatio...

  6. A parameter estimation framework for patient-specific hemodynamic computations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Itu, Lucian; Sharma, Puneet; Passerini, Tiziano; Kamen, Ali; Suciu, Constantin; Comaniciu, Dorin

    2015-01-01

    We propose a fully automated parameter estimation framework for performing patient-specific hemodynamic computations in arterial models. To determine the personalized values of the windkessel models, which are used as part of the geometrical multiscale circulation model, a parameter estimation problem is formulated. Clinical measurements of pressure and/or flow-rate are imposed as constraints to formulate a nonlinear system of equations, whose fixed point solution is sought. A key feature of the proposed method is a warm-start to the optimization procedure, with better initial solution for the nonlinear system of equations, to reduce the number of iterations needed for the calibration of the geometrical multiscale models. To achieve these goals, the initial solution, computed with a lumped parameter model, is adapted before solving the parameter estimation problem for the geometrical multiscale circulation model: the resistance and the compliance of the circulation model are estimated and compensated. The proposed framework is evaluated on a patient-specific aortic model, a full body arterial model, and multiple idealized anatomical models representing different arterial segments. For each case it leads to the best performance in terms of number of iterations required for the computational model to be in close agreement with the clinical measurements.

  7. Matched filtering and parameter estimation of ringdown waveforms

    SciTech Connect

    Berti, Emanuele; Cardoso, Jaime; Cardoso, Vitor; Cavaglia, Marco

    2007-11-15

    Using recent results from numerical relativity simulations of nonspinning binary black hole mergers, we revisit the problem of detecting ringdown waveforms and of estimating the source parameters, considering both LISA and Earth-based interferometers. We find that Advanced LIGO and EGO could detect intermediate-mass black holes of mass up to {approx}10{sup 3}M{sub {center_dot}} out to a luminosity distance of a few Gpc. For typical multipolar energy distributions, we show that the single-mode ringdown templates presently used for ringdown searches in the LIGO data stream can produce a significant event loss (>10% for all detectors in a large interval of black hole masses) and very large parameter estimation errors on the black hole's mass and spin. We estimate that more than {approx}10{sup 6} templates would be needed for a single-stage multimode search. Therefore, we recommend a ''two-stage'' search to save on computational costs: single-mode templates can be used for detection, but multimode templates or Prony methods should be used to estimate parameters once a detection has been made. We update estimates of the critical signal-to-noise ratio required to test the hypothesis that two or more modes are present in the signal and to resolve their frequencies, showing that second-generation Earth-based detectors and LISA have the potential to perform no-hair tests.

  8. Hybrid fault diagnosis of nonlinear systems using neural parameter estimators.

    PubMed

    Sobhani-Tehrani, E; Talebi, H A; Khorasani, K

    2014-02-01

    This paper presents a novel integrated hybrid approach for fault diagnosis (FD) of nonlinear systems taking advantage of both the system's mathematical model and the adaptive nonlinear approximation capability of computational intelligence techniques. Unlike most FD techniques, the proposed solution simultaneously accomplishes fault detection, isolation, and identification (FDII) within a unified diagnostic module. At the core of this solution is a bank of adaptive neural parameter estimators (NPEs) associated with a set of single-parameter fault models. The NPEs continuously estimate unknown fault parameters (FPs) that are indicators of faults in the system. Two NPE structures, series-parallel and parallel, are developed with their exclusive set of desirable attributes. The parallel scheme is extremely robust to measurement noise and possesses a simpler, yet more solid, fault isolation logic. In contrast, the series-parallel scheme displays short FD delays and is robust to closed-loop system transients due to changes in control commands. Finally, a fault tolerant observer (FTO) is designed to extend the capability of the two NPEs that originally assumes full state measurements for systems that have only partial state measurements. The proposed FTO is a neural state estimator that can estimate unmeasured states even in the presence of faults. The estimated and the measured states then comprise the inputs to the two proposed FDII schemes. Simulation results for FDII of reaction wheels of a three-axis stabilized satellite in the presence of disturbances and noise demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed FDII solutions under partial state measurements.

  9. Estimation of rice biophysical parameters using multitemporal RADARSAT-2 images

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, S.; Ni, P.; Cui, G.; He, P.; Liu, H.; Li, L.; Liang, Z.

    2016-04-01

    Compared with optical sensors, synthetic aperture radar (SAR) has the capability of acquiring images in all-weather conditions. Thus, SAR images are suitable for using in rice growth regions that are characterized by frequent cloud cover and rain. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the probability of rice biophysical parameters estimation using multitemporal RADARSAT-2 images, and to develop the estimation models. Three RADARSTA-2 images were acquired during the rice critical growth stages in 2014 near Meishan, Sichuan province, Southwest China. Leaf area index (LAI), the fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR), height, biomass and canopy water content (WC) were observed at 30 experimental plots over 5 periods. The relationship between RADARSAT-2 backscattering coefficients (σ 0) or their ratios and rice biophysical parameters were analysed. These biophysical parameters were significantly and consistently correlated with the VV and VH σ 0 ratio (σ 0 VV/ σ 0 VH) throughout all growth stages. The regression model were developed between biophysical parameters and σ 0 VV/ σ 0 VH. The results suggest that the RADARSAT-2 data has great potential capability for the rice biophysical parameters estimation and the timely rice growth monitoring.

  10. Parameter estimation of an air-bearing suspended test table

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fu, Zhenxian; Lin, Yurong; Liu, Yang; Chen, Xinglin; Chen, Fang

    2015-02-01

    A parameter estimation approach is proposed for parameter determination of a 3-axis air-bearing suspended test table. The table is to provide a balanced and frictionless environment for spacecraft ground test. To balance the suspension, the mechanical parameters of the table, including its angular inertias and centroid deviation from its rotating center, have to be determined first. Then sliding masses on the table can be adjusted by stepper motors to relocate the centroid of the table to its rotating center. Using the angular momentum theorem and the coriolis theorem, dynamic equations are derived describing the rotation of the table under the influence of gravity imbalance torque and activating torques. To generate the actuating torques, use of momentum wheels is proposed, whose virtue is that no active control is required to the momentum wheels, which merely have to spin at constant rates, thus avoiding the singularity problem and the difficulty of precisely adjusting the output torques, issues associated with control moment gyros. The gyroscopic torques generated by the momentum wheels, as they are forced by the table to precess, are sufficient to activate the table for parameter estimation. Then least-square estimation is be employed to calculate the desired parameters. The effectiveness of the method is validated by simulation.

  11. Inverse estimation of parameters for an estuarine eutrophication model

    SciTech Connect

    Shen, J.; Kuo, A.Y.

    1996-11-01

    An inverse model of an estuarine eutrophication model with eight state variables is developed. It provides a framework to estimate parameter values of the eutrophication model by assimilation of concentration data of these state variables. The inverse model using the variational technique in conjunction with a vertical two-dimensional eutrophication model is general enough to be applicable to aid model calibration. The formulation is illustrated by conducting a series of numerical experiments for the tidal Rappahannock River, a western shore tributary of the Chesapeake Bay. The numerical experiments of short-period model simulations with different hypothetical data sets and long-period model simulations with limited hypothetical data sets demonstrated that the inverse model can be satisfactorily used to estimate parameter values of the eutrophication model. The experiments also showed that the inverse model is useful to address some important questions, such as uniqueness of the parameter estimation and data requirements for model calibration. Because of the complexity of the eutrophication system, degrading of speed of convergence may occur. Two major factors which cause degradation of speed of convergence are cross effects among parameters and the multiple scales involved in the parameter system.

  12. Estimation of uncertain material parameters using modal test data

    SciTech Connect

    Veers, P.S.; Laird, D.L.; Carne, T.G.; Sagartz, M.J.

    1997-11-01

    Analytical models of wind turbine blades have many uncertainties, particularly with composite construction where material properties and cross-sectional dimension may not be known or precisely controllable. In this paper the authors demonstrate how modal testing can be used to estimate important material parameters and to update and improve a finite-element (FE) model of a prototype wind turbine blade. An example of prototype blade is used here to demonstrate how model parameters can be identified. The starting point is an FE model of the blade, using best estimates for the material constants. Frequencies of the lowest fourteen modes are used as the basis for comparisons between model predictions and test data. Natural frequencies and mode shapes calculated with the FE model are used in an optimal test design code to select instrumentation (accelerometer) and excitation locations that capture all the desired mode shapes. The FE model is also used to calculate sensitivities of the modal frequencies to each of the uncertain material parameters. These parameters are estimated, or updated, using a weighted least-squares technique to minimize the difference between test frequencies and predicted results. Updated material properties are determined for axial, transverse, and shear moduli in two separate regions of the blade cross section: in the central box, and in the leading and trailing panels. Static FE analyses are then conducted with the updated material parameters to determine changes in effective beam stiffness and buckling loads.

  13. [Atmospheric parameter estimation for LAMOST/GUOSHOUJING spectra].

    PubMed

    Lu, Yu; Li, Xiang-Ru; Yang, Tan

    2014-11-01

    It is a key task to estimate the atmospheric parameters from the observed stellar spectra in exploring the nature of stars and universe. With our Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopy Telescope (LAMOST) which begun its formal Sky Survey in September 2012, we are obtaining a mass of stellar spectra in an unprecedented speed. It has brought a new opportunity and a challenge for the research of galaxies. Due to the complexity of the observing system, the noise in the spectrum is relatively large. At the same time, the preprocessing procedures of spectrum are also not ideal, such as the wavelength calibration and the flow calibration. Therefore, there is a slight distortion of the spectrum. They result in the high difficulty of estimating the atmospheric parameters for the measured stellar spectra. It is one of the important issues to estimate the atmospheric parameters for the massive stellar spectra of LAMOST. The key of this study is how to eliminate noise and improve the accuracy and robustness of estimating the atmospheric parameters for the measured stellar spectra. We propose a regression model for estimating the atmospheric parameters of LAMOST stellar(SVM(lasso)). The basic idea of this model is: First, we use the Haar wavelet to filter spectrum, suppress the adverse effects of the spectral noise and retain the most discrimination information of spectrum. Secondly, We use the lasso algorithm for feature selection and extract the features of strongly correlating with the atmospheric parameters. Finally, the features are input to the support vector regression model for estimating the parameters. Because the model has better tolerance to the slight distortion and the noise of the spectrum, the accuracy of the measurement is improved. To evaluate the feasibility of the above scheme, we conduct experiments extensively on the 33 963 pilot surveys spectrums by LAMOST. The accuracy of three atmospheric parameters is log Teff: 0.006 8 dex, log g: 0.155 1 dex

  14. ORAN- ORBITAL AND GEODETIC PARAMETER ESTIMATION ERROR ANALYSIS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Putney, B.

    1994-01-01

    The Orbital and Geodetic Parameter Estimation Error Analysis program, ORAN, was developed as a Bayesian least squares simulation program for orbital trajectories. ORAN does not process data, but is intended to compute the accuracy of the results of a data reduction, if measurements of a given accuracy are available and are processed by a minimum variance data reduction program. Actual data may be used to provide the time when a given measurement was available and the estimated noise on that measurement. ORAN is designed to consider a data reduction process in which a number of satellite data periods are reduced simultaneously. If there is more than one satellite in a data period, satellite-to-satellite tracking may be analyzed. The least squares estimator in most orbital determination programs assumes that measurements can be modeled by a nonlinear regression equation containing a function of parameters to be estimated and parameters which are assumed to be constant. The partitioning of parameters into those to be estimated (adjusted) and those assumed to be known (unadjusted) is somewhat arbitrary. For any particular problem, the data will be insufficient to adjust all parameters subject to uncertainty, and some reasonable subset of these parameters is selected for estimation. The final errors in the adjusted parameters may be decomposed into a component due to measurement noise and a component due to errors in the assumed values of the unadjusted parameters. Error statistics associated with the first component are generally evaluated in an orbital determination program. ORAN is used to simulate the orbital determination processing and to compute error statistics associated with the second component. Satellite observations may be simulated with desired noise levels given in many forms including range and range rate, altimeter height, right ascension and declination, direction cosines, X and Y angles, azimuth and elevation, and satellite-to-satellite range and

  15. Characterization, parameter estimation, and aircraft response statistics of atmospheric turbulence

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mark, W. D.

    1981-01-01

    A nonGaussian three component model of atmospheric turbulence is postulated that accounts for readily observable features of turbulence velocity records, their autocorrelation functions, and their spectra. Methods for computing probability density functions and mean exceedance rates of a generic aircraft response variable are developed using nonGaussian turbulence characterizations readily extracted from velocity recordings. A maximum likelihood method is developed for optimal estimation of the integral scale and intensity of records possessing von Karman transverse of longitudinal spectra. Formulas for the variances of such parameter estimates are developed. The maximum likelihood and least-square approaches are combined to yield a method for estimating the autocorrelation function parameters of a two component model for turbulence.

  16. Modal parameters estimation using ant colony optimisation algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sitarz, Piotr; Powałka, Bartosz

    2016-08-01

    The paper puts forward a new estimation method of modal parameters for dynamical systems. The problem of parameter estimation has been simplified to optimisation which is carried out using the ant colony system algorithm. The proposed method significantly constrains the solution space, determined on the basis of frequency plots of the receptance FRFs (frequency response functions) for objects presented in the frequency domain. The constantly growing computing power of readily accessible PCs makes this novel approach a viable solution. The combination of deterministic constraints of the solution space with modified ant colony system algorithms produced excellent results for systems in which mode shapes are defined by distinctly different natural frequencies and for those in which natural frequencies are similar. The proposed method is fully autonomous and the user does not need to select a model order. The last section of the paper gives estimation results for two sample frequency plots, conducted with the proposed method and the PolyMAX algorithm.

  17. Semidefinite Programming for Approximate Maximum Likelihood Sinusoidal Parameter Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lui, Kenneth W. K.; So, H. C.

    2009-12-01

    We study the convex optimization approach for parameter estimation of several sinusoidal models, namely, single complex/real tone, multiple complex sinusoids, and single two-dimensional complex tone, in the presence of additive Gaussian noise. The major difficulty for optimally determining the parameters is that the corresponding maximum likelihood (ML) estimators involve finding the global minimum or maximum of multimodal cost functions because the frequencies are nonlinear in the observed signals. By relaxing the nonconvex ML formulations using semidefinite programs, high-fidelity approximate solutions are obtained in a globally optimum fashion. Computer simulations are included to contrast the estimation performance of the proposed semi-definite relaxation methods with the iterative quadratic maximum likelihood technique as well as Cramér-Rao lower bound.

  18. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-01

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times.

  19. Aerodynamic parameter estimation via Fourier modulating function techniques

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pearson, A. E.

    1995-01-01

    Parameter estimation algorithms are developed in the frequency domain for systems modeled by input/output ordinary differential equations. The approach is based on Shinbrot's method of moment functionals utilizing Fourier based modulating functions. Assuming white measurement noises for linear multivariable system models, an adaptive weighted least squares algorithm is developed which approximates a maximum likelihood estimate and cannot be biased by unknown initial or boundary conditions in the data owing to a special property attending Shinbrot-type modulating functions. Application is made to perturbation equation modeling of the longitudinal and lateral dynamics of a high performance aircraft using flight-test data. Comparative studies are included which demonstrate potential advantages of the algorithm relative to some well established techniques for parameter identification. Deterministic least squares extensions of the approach are made to the frequency transfer function identification problem for linear systems and to the parameter identification problem for a class of nonlinear-time-varying differential system models.

  20. Estimating Arrhenius parameters using temperature programmed molecular dynamics.

    PubMed

    Imandi, Venkataramana; Chatterjee, Abhijit

    2016-07-21

    Kinetic rates at different temperatures and the associated Arrhenius parameters, whenever Arrhenius law is obeyed, are efficiently estimated by applying maximum likelihood analysis to waiting times collected using the temperature programmed molecular dynamics method. When transitions involving many activated pathways are available in the dataset, their rates may be calculated using the same collection of waiting times. Arrhenius behaviour is ascertained by comparing rates at the sampled temperatures with ones from the Arrhenius expression. Three prototype systems with corrugated energy landscapes, namely, solvated alanine dipeptide, diffusion at the metal-solvent interphase, and lithium diffusion in silicon, are studied to highlight various aspects of the method. The method becomes particularly appealing when the Arrhenius parameters can be used to find rates at low temperatures where transitions are rare. Systematic coarse-graining of states can further extend the time scales accessible to the method. Good estimates for the rate parameters are obtained with 500-1000 waiting times. PMID:27448871

  1. Estimating Building Simulation Parameters via Bayesian Structure Learning

    SciTech Connect

    Edwards, Richard E; New, Joshua Ryan; Parker, Lynne Edwards

    2013-01-01

    Many key building design policies are made using sophisticated computer simulations such as EnergyPlus (E+), the DOE flagship whole-building energy simulation engine. E+ and other sophisticated computer simulations have several major problems. The two main issues are 1) gaps between the simulation model and the actual structure, and 2) limitations of the modeling engine's capabilities. Currently, these problems are addressed by having an engineer manually calibrate simulation parameters to real world data or using algorithmic optimization methods to adjust the building parameters. However, some simulations engines, like E+, are computationally expensive, which makes repeatedly evaluating the simulation engine costly. This work explores addressing this issue by automatically discovering the simulation's internal input and output dependencies from 20 Gigabytes of E+ simulation data, future extensions will use 200 Terabytes of E+ simulation data. The model is validated by inferring building parameters for E+ simulations with ground truth building parameters. Our results indicate that the model accurately represents parameter means with some deviation from the means, but does not support inferring parameter values that exist on the distribution's tail.

  2. Instrumental noise estimates stabilize and quantify endothelial cell micro-impedance barrier function parameter estimates

    SciTech Connect

    English, Anthony E; Moy, Alan B; Kruse, Kara L; Ward, Richard C; Kirkpatrick, Stacy S; GoldmanM.D., Mitchell H

    2009-04-01

    A novel transcellular micro-impedance biosensor, referred to as the electric cell-substrate impedance sensor or ECIS, has become increasingly applied to the study and quantification of endothelial cell physiology. In principle, frequency dependent impedance measurements obtained from this sensor can be used to estimate the cell cell and cell matrix impedance components of endothelial cell barrier function based on simple geometric models. Few studies, however, have examined the numerical optimization of these barrier function parameters and established their error bounds. This study, therefore, illustrates the implementation of a multi-response Levenberg Marquardt algorithm that includes instrumental noise estimates and applies it to frequency dependent porcine pulmonary artery endothelial cell impedance measurements. The stability of cell cell, cell matrix and membrane impedance parameter estimates based on this approach is carefully examined, and several forms of parameter instability and refinement illustrated. Including frequency dependent noise variance estimates in the numerical optimization reduced the parameter value dependence on the frequency range of measured impedances. The increased stability provided by a multi-response non-linear fit over one-dimensional algorithms indicated that both real and imaginary data should be used in the parameter optimization. Error estimates based on single fits and Monte Carlo simulations showed that the model barrier parameters were often highly correlated with each other. Independently resolving the different parameters can, therefore, present a challenge to the experimentalist and demand the use of non-linear multivariate statistical methods when comparing different sets of parameters.

  3. Summary of the DREAM8 Parameter Estimation Challenge: Toward Parameter Identification for Whole-Cell Models

    PubMed Central

    Karr, Jonathan R.; Williams, Alex H.; Zucker, Jeremy D.; Raue, Andreas; Steiert, Bernhard; Timmer, Jens; Kreutz, Clemens; Wilkinson, Simon; Allgood, Brandon A.; Bot, Brian M.; Hoff, Bruce R.; Kellen, Michael R.; Covert, Markus W.; Stolovitzky, Gustavo A.; Meyer, Pablo

    2015-01-01

    Whole-cell models that explicitly represent all cellular components at the molecular level have the potential to predict phenotype from genotype. However, even for simple bacteria, whole-cell models will contain thousands of parameters, many of which are poorly characterized or unknown. New algorithms are needed to estimate these parameters and enable researchers to build increasingly comprehensive models. We organized the Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM) 8 Whole-Cell Parameter Estimation Challenge to develop new parameter estimation algorithms for whole-cell models. We asked participants to identify a subset of parameters of a whole-cell model given the model’s structure and in silico “experimental” data. Here we describe the challenge, the best performing methods, and new insights into the identifiability of whole-cell models. We also describe several valuable lessons we learned toward improving future challenges. Going forward, we believe that collaborative efforts supported by inexpensive cloud computing have the potential to solve whole-cell model parameter estimation. PMID:26020786

  4. Estimation of Cometary Rotation Parameters Based on Camera Images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spindler, Karlheinz

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the Rosetta mission is the in situ analysis of a cometary nucleus using both remote sensing equipment and scientific instruments delivered to the comet surface by a lander and transmitting measurement data to the comet-orbiting probe. Following a tour of planets including one Mars swing-by and three Earth swing-bys, the Rosetta probe is scheduled to rendezvous with comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in May 2014. The mission poses various flight dynamics challenges, both in terms of parameter estimation and maneuver planning. Along with spacecraft parameters, the comet's position, velocity, attitude, angular velocity, inertia tensor and gravitatonal field need to be estimated. The measurements on which the estimation process is based are ground-based measurements (range and Doppler) yielding information on the heliocentric spacecraft state and images taken by an on-board camera yielding informaton on the comet state relative to the spacecraft. The image-based navigation depends on te identification of cometary landmarks (whose body coordinates also need to be estimated in the process). The paper will describe the estimation process involved, focusing on the phase when, after orbit insertion, the task arises to estimate the cometary rotational motion from camera images on which individual landmarks begin to become identifiable.

  5. Improving parameter priors for data-scarce estimation problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Almeida, Susana; Bulygina, Nataliya; McIntyre, Neil; Wagener, Thorsten; Buytaert, Wouter

    2013-09-01

    Runoff prediction in ungauged catchments is a recurrent problem in hydrology. Conceptual models are usually calibrated by defining a feasible parameter range and then conditioning parameter sets on observed system responses, e.g., streamflow. In ungauged catchments, several studies condition models on regionalized response signatures, such as runoff ratio or base flow index, using a Bayesian procedure. In this technical note, the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) data set is used to explore the impact on model performance of assumptions made about the prior distribution. In particular, the common assumption of uniform prior on parameters is shown to be unsuitable. This is because the uniform prior on parameters maps onto skewed response signature priors that can counteract the valuable information gained from the regionalization. To address this issue, we test a methodological development based on an initial transformation of the uniform prior on parameters into a prior that maps to a uniform response signature distribution. We demonstrate that this method contributes to improved estimation of the response signatures.

  6. Tumor parameter estimation considering the body geometry by thermography.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Shazzat; Mohammadi, Farah A

    2016-09-01

    Implementation of non-invasive, non-contact, radiation-free thermal diagnostic tools requires an accurate correlation between surface temperature and interior physiology derived from living bio-heat phenomena. Such associations in the chest, forearm, and natural and deformed breasts have been investigated using finite element analysis (FEA), where the geometry and heterogeneity of an organ are accounted for by creating anatomically-accurate FEA models. The quantitative links are involved in the proposed evolutionary methodology for forecasting unknown Physio-thermo-biological parameters, including the depth, size and metabolic rate of the underlying nodule. A Custom Genetic Algorithm (GA) is tailored to parameterize a tumor by minimizing a fitness function. The study has employed the finite element method to develop simulated data sets and gradient matrix. Furthermore, simulated thermograms are obtained by enveloping the data sets with ±10% random noise. PMID:27416548

  7. Seamless continental-domain hydrologic model parameter estimations with Multi-Scale Parameter Regionalization

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Newman, Andrew; Wood, Andy

    2016-04-01

    Estimation of spatially distributed parameters is one of the biggest challenges in hydrologic modeling over a large spatial domain. This problem arises from methodological challenges such as the transfer of calibrated parameters to ungauged locations. Consequently, many current large scale hydrologic assessments rely on spatially inconsistent parameter fields showing patchwork patterns resulting from individual basin calibration or spatially constant parameters resulting from the adoption of default or a-priori estimates. In this study we apply the Multi-scale Parameter Regionalization (MPR) framework (Samaniego et al., 2010) to generate spatially continuous and optimized parameter fields for the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model over the contiguous United States(CONUS). The MPR method uses transfer functions that relate geophysical attributes (e.g., soil) to model parameters (e.g., parameters that describe the storage and transmission of water) at the native resolution of the geophysical attribute data and then scale to the model spatial resolution with several scaling functions, e.g., arithmetic mean, harmonic mean, and geometric mean. Model parameter adjustments are made by calibrating the parameters of the transfer function rather than the model parameters themselves. In this presentation, we first discuss conceptual challenges in a "model agnostic" continental-domain application of the MPR approach. We describe development of transfer functions for the soil parameters, and discuss challenges associated with extending MPR for VIC to multiple models. Next, we discuss the "computational shortcut" of headwater basin calibration where we estimate the parameters for only 500 headwater basins rather than conducting simulations for every grid box across the entire domain. We first performed individual basin calibration to obtain a benchmark of the maximum achievable performance in each basin, and examined their transferability to the other basins. We then

  8. Mammalian Cell Culture Process for Monoclonal Antibody Production: Nonlinear Modelling and Parameter Estimation

    PubMed Central

    Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies. PMID:25685797

  9. Mammalian cell culture process for monoclonal antibody production: nonlinear modelling and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad; Roman, Monica

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies. PMID:25685797

  10. Application of high-resolution, remotely sensed data for transient storage modeling parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bingham, Q. G.; Neilson, B. T.; Neale, C. M. U.; Cardenas, M. B.

    2012-08-01

    This paper presents a method that uses high-resolution multispectral and thermal infrared imagery from airborne remote sensing for estimating two model parameters within the two-zone in-stream temperature and solute (TZTS) model. Previous TZTS modeling efforts have provided accurate in-stream temperature predictions; however, model parameter ranges resulting from the multiobjective calibrations were quite large. In addition to the data types previously required to populate and calibrate the TZTS model, high-resolution, remotely sensed thermal infrared (TIR) and near-infrared, red, and green (multispectral) band imagery were collected to help estimate two previously calibrated parameters: (1) average total channel width (BTOT) and (2) the fraction of the channel comprising surface transient storage zones (β). Multispectral imagery in combination with the TIR imagery provided high-resolution estimates ofBTOT. In-stream temperature distributions provided by the TIR imagery enabled the calculation of temperature thresholds at which main channel temperatures could be delineated from surface transient storage, permitting the estimation ofβ. It was found that an increase in the resolution and frequency at which BTOT and β were physically estimated resulted in similar objective functions in the main channel and transient storage zones, but the uncertainty associated with the estimated parameters decreased.

  11. Mammalian cell culture process for monoclonal antibody production: nonlinear modelling and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Selişteanu, Dan; Șendrescu, Dorin; Georgeanu, Vlad; Roman, Monica

    2015-01-01

    Monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) are at present one of the fastest growing products of pharmaceutical industry, with widespread applications in biochemistry, biology, and medicine. The operation of mAbs production processes is predominantly based on empirical knowledge, the improvements being achieved by using trial-and-error experiments and precedent practices. The nonlinearity of these processes and the absence of suitable instrumentation require an enhanced modelling effort and modern kinetic parameter estimation strategies. The present work is dedicated to nonlinear dynamic modelling and parameter estimation for a mammalian cell culture process used for mAb production. By using a dynamical model of such kind of processes, an optimization-based technique for estimation of kinetic parameters in the model of mammalian cell culture process is developed. The estimation is achieved as a result of minimizing an error function by a particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. The proposed estimation approach is analyzed in this work by using a particular model of mammalian cell culture, as a case study, but is generic for this class of bioprocesses. The presented case study shows that the proposed parameter estimation technique provides a more accurate simulation of the experimentally observed process behaviour than reported in previous studies.

  12. Re-estimating temperature-dependent consumption parameters in bioenergetics models for juvenile Chinook salmon

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Plumb, John M.; Moffitt, Christine M.

    2015-01-01

    Researchers have cautioned against the borrowing of consumption and growth parameters from other species and life stages in bioenergetics growth models. In particular, the function that dictates temperature dependence in maximum consumption (Cmax) within the Wisconsin bioenergetics model for Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha produces estimates that are lower than those measured in published laboratory feeding trials. We used published and unpublished data from laboratory feeding trials with subyearling Chinook Salmon from three stocks (Snake, Nechako, and Big Qualicum rivers) to estimate and adjust the model parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax. The data included growth measures in fish ranging from 1.5 to 7.2 g that were held at temperatures from 14°C to 26°C. Parameters for temperature dependence in Cmax were estimated based on relative differences in food consumption, and bootstrapping techniques were then used to estimate the error about the parameters. We found that at temperatures between 17°C and 25°C, the current parameter values did not match the observed data, indicating that Cmax should be shifted by about 4°C relative to the current implementation under the bioenergetics model. We conclude that the adjusted parameters for Cmax should produce more accurate predictions from the bioenergetics model for subyearling Chinook Salmon.

  13. Estimating parameters with pre-specified accuracies in distributed parameter systems using optimal experiment design

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potters, M. G.; Bombois, X.; Mansoori, M.; Van den Hof, Paul M. J.

    2016-08-01

    Estimation of physical parameters in dynamical systems driven by linear partial differential equations is an important problem. In this paper, we introduce the least costly experiment design framework for these systems. It enables parameter estimation with an accuracy that is specified by the experimenter prior to the identification experiment, while at the same time minimising the cost of the experiment. We show how to adapt the classical framework for these systems and take into account scaling and stability issues. We also introduce a progressive subdivision algorithm that further generalises the experiment design framework in the sense that it returns the lowest cost by finding the optimal input signal, and optimal sensor and actuator locations. Our methodology is then applied to a relevant problem in heat transfer studies: estimation of conductivity and diffusivity parameters in front-face experiments. We find good correspondence between numerical and theoretical results.

  14. Model and Parameter Discretization Impacts on Estimated ASR Recovery Efficiency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Forghani, A.; Peralta, R. C.

    2015-12-01

    We contrast computed recovery efficiency of one Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR) well using several modeling situations. Test situations differ in employed finite difference grid discretization, hydraulic conductivity, and storativity. We employ a 7-layer regional groundwater model calibrated for Salt Lake Valley. Since the regional model grid is too coarse for ASR analysis, we prepare two local models with significantly smaller discretization capable of analyzing ASR recovery efficiency. Some addressed situations employ parameters interpolated from the coarse valley model. Other situations employ parameters derived from nearby well logs or pumping tests. The intent of the evaluations and subsequent sensitivity analysis is to show how significantly the employed discretization and aquifer parameters affect estimated recovery efficiency. Most of previous studies to evaluate ASR recovery efficiency only consider hypothetical uniform specified boundary heads and gradient assuming homogeneous aquifer parameters. The well is part of the Jordan Valley Water Conservancy District (JVWCD) ASR system, that lies within Salt Lake Valley.

  15. Bayesian hemodynamic parameter estimation by bolus tracking perfusion weighted imaging.

    PubMed

    Boutelier, Timothé; Kudo, Koshuke; Pautot, Fabrice; Sasaki, Makoto

    2012-07-01

    A delay-insensitive probabilistic method for estimating hemodynamic parameters, delays, theoretical residue functions, and concentration time curves by computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) perfusion weighted imaging is presented. Only a mild stationarity hypothesis is made beyond the standard perfusion model. New microvascular parameters with simple hemodynamic interpretation are naturally introduced. Simulations on standard digital phantoms show that the method outperforms the oscillating singular value decomposition (oSVD) method in terms of goodness-of-fit, linearity, statistical and systematic errors on all parameters, especially at low signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). Delay is always estimated sharply with user-supplied resolution and is purely arterial, by contrast to oSVD time-to-maximum TMAX that is very noisy and biased by mean transit time (MTT), blood volume, and SNR. Residue functions and signals estimates do not suffer overfitting anymore. One CT acute stroke case confirms simulation results and highlights the ability of the method to reliably estimate MTT when SNR is low. Delays look promising for delineating the arterial occlusion territory and collateral circulation. PMID:22410325

  16. Anisotropic parameter estimation using velocity variation with offset analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Herawati, I.; Saladin, M.; Pranowo, W.; Winardhie, S.; Priyono, A.

    2013-09-09

    Seismic anisotropy is defined as velocity dependent upon angle or offset. Knowledge about anisotropy effect on seismic data is important in amplitude analysis, stacking process and time to depth conversion. Due to this anisotropic effect, reflector can not be flattened using single velocity based on hyperbolic moveout equation. Therefore, after normal moveout correction, there will still be residual moveout that relates to velocity information. This research aims to obtain anisotropic parameters, ε and δ, using two proposed methods. The first method is called velocity variation with offset (VVO) which is based on simplification of weak anisotropy equation. In VVO method, velocity at each offset is calculated and plotted to obtain vertical velocity and parameter δ. The second method is inversion method using linear approach where vertical velocity, δ, and ε is estimated simultaneously. Both methods are tested on synthetic models using ray-tracing forward modelling. Results show that δ value can be estimated appropriately using both methods. Meanwhile, inversion based method give better estimation for obtaining ε value. This study shows that estimation on anisotropic parameters rely on the accuracy of normal moveout velocity, residual moveout and offset to angle transformation.

  17. Informed spectral analysis: audio signal parameter estimation using side information

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fourer, Dominique; Marchand, Sylvain

    2013-12-01

    Parametric models are of great interest for representing and manipulating sounds. However, the quality of the resulting signals depends on the precision of the parameters. When the signals are available, these parameters can be estimated, but the presence of noise decreases the resulting precision of the estimation. Furthermore, the Cramér-Rao bound shows the minimal error reachable with the best estimator, which can be insufficient for demanding applications. These limitations can be overcome by using the coding approach which consists in directly transmitting the parameters with the best precision using the minimal bitrate. However, this approach does not take advantage of the information provided by the estimation from the signal and may require a larger bitrate and a loss of compatibility with existing file formats. The purpose of this article is to propose a compromised approach, called the 'informed approach,' which combines analysis with (coded) side information in order to increase the precision of parameter estimation using a lower bitrate than pure coding approaches, the audio signal being known. Thus, the analysis problem is presented in a coder/decoder configuration where the side information is computed and inaudibly embedded into the mixture signal at the coder. At the decoder, the extra information is extracted and is used to assist the analysis process. This study proposes applying this approach to audio spectral analysis using sinusoidal modeling which is a well-known model with practical applications and where theoretical bounds have been calculated. This work aims at uncovering new approaches for audio quality-based applications. It provides a solution for challenging problems like active listening of music, source separation, and realistic sound transformations.

  18. Improving the quality of parameter estimates obtained from slug tests

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Butler, J.J.; McElwee, C.D.; Liu, W.

    1996-01-01

    The slug test is one of the most commonly used field methods for obtaining in situ estimates of hydraulic conductivity. Despite its prevalence, this method has received criticism from many quarters in the ground-water community. This criticism emphasizes the poor quality of the estimated parameters, a condition that is primarily a product of the somewhat casual approach that is often employed in slug tests. Recently, the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) has pursued research directed it improving methods for the performance and analysis of slug tests. Based on extensive theoretical and field research, a series of guidelines have been proposed that should enable the quality of parameter estimates to be improved. The most significant of these guidelines are: (1) three or more slug tests should be performed at each well during a given test period; (2) two or more different initial displacements (Ho) should be used at each well during a test period; (3) the method used to initiate a test should enable the slug to be introduced in a near-instantaneous manner and should allow a good estimate of Ho to be obtained; (4) data-acquisition equipment that enables a large quantity of high quality data to be collected should be employed; (5) if an estimate of the storage parameter is needed, an observation well other than the test well should be employed; (6) the method chosen for analysis of the slug-test data should be appropriate for site conditions; (7) use of pre- and post-analysis plots should be an integral component of the analysis procedure, and (8) appropriate well construction parameters should be employed. Data from slug tests performed at a number of KGS field sites demonstrate the importance of these guidelines.

  19. Improving the quality of parameter estimates obtained from slug tests

    SciTech Connect

    Butler, J.J. Jr.; McElwee, C.D.; Liu, W.

    1996-05-01

    The slug test is one of the most commonly used field methods for obtaining in situ estimates of hydraulic conductivity. Despite its prevalence, this method has received criticism from many quarters in the ground-water community. This criticism emphasizes the poor quality of the estimated parameters, a condition that is primarily a product of the somewhat casual approach that is often employed in slug tests. Recently, the Kansas Geological Survey (KGS) has pursued research directed at improving methods for the performance and analysis of slug tests. Based on extensive theoretical and field research, a series of guidelines have been proposed that should enable the quality of parameter estimates to be improved. The most significant of these guidelines are: (1) three or more slug tests should be performed at each well during a given test period; (2) two or more different initial displacements (H{sub 0}) should be used at each well during a test period; (3) the method used to initiate a test should enable the slug to e introduced in a near-instantaneous manner and should allow a good estimate of H{sub 0} to be obtained; (4) data-acquisition equipment that enables a large quantity of high quality data to be collected should be employed; (5) if an estimate of the storage parameter is needed, an observation well other than the test well should be employed; (6) the method chosen for analysis of the slug-test data should be appropriate for site conditions; (7) use of pre- and post-analysis plots should be an integral component of the analysis procedure, and (8) appropriate well construction parameters should be employed. Data from slug tests performed at a number of KGS field sites demonstrate the importance of these guidelines.

  20. Accurate Visual Heading Estimation at High Rotation Rate Without Oculomotor or Static-Depth Cues

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stone, Leland S.; Perrone, John A.; Null, Cynthia H. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    It has been claimed that either oculomotor or static depth cues provide the signals about self-rotation necessary approx.-1 deg/s. We tested this hypothesis by simulating self-motion along a curved path with the eyes fixed in the head (plus or minus 16 deg/s of rotation). Curvilinear motion offers two advantages: 1) heading remains constant in retinotopic coordinates, and 2) there is no visual-oculomotor conflict (both actual and simulated eye position remain stationary). We simulated 400 ms of rotation combined with 16 m/s of translation at fixed angles with respect to gaze towards two vertical planes of random dots initially 12 and 24 m away, with a field of view of 45 degrees. Four subjects were asked to fixate a central cross and to respond whether they were translating to the left or right of straight-ahead gaze. From the psychometric curves, heading bias (mean) and precision (semi-interquartile) were derived. The mean bias over 2-5 runs was 3.0, 4.0, -2.0, -0.4 deg for the first author and three naive subjects, respectively (positive indicating towards the rotation direction). The mean precision was 2.0, 1.9, 3.1, 1.6 deg. respectively. The ability of observers to make relatively accurate and precise heading judgments, despite the large rotational flow component, refutes the view that extra-flow-field information is necessary for human visual heading estimation at high rotation rates. Our results support models that process combined translational/rotational flow to estimate heading, but should not be construed to suggest that other cues do not play an important role when they are available to the observer.

  1. Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Joshua H; Johnson, Devin S; Lindberg, Mark S; Adams, Layne G

    2015-10-01

    Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark-resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package. PMID:26649379

  2. Estimating demographic parameters using a combination of known-fate and open N-mixture models

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Schmidt, Joshua H.; Johnson, Devin S.; Lindberg, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are required to infer appropriate ecological relationships and inform management actions. Known-fate data from marked individuals are commonly used to estimate survival rates, whereas N-mixture models use count data from unmarked individuals to estimate multiple demographic parameters. However, a joint approach combining the strengths of both analytical tools has not been developed. Here we develop an integrated model combining known-fate and open N-mixture models, allowing the estimation of detection probability, recruitment, and the joint estimation of survival. We demonstrate our approach through both simulations and an applied example using four years of known-fate and pack count data for wolves (Canis lupus). Simulation results indicated that the integrated model reliably recovered parameters with no evidence of bias, and survival estimates were more precise under the joint model. Results from the applied example indicated that the marked sample of wolves was biased toward individuals with higher apparent survival rates than the unmarked pack mates, suggesting that joint estimates may be more representative of the overall population. Our integrated model is a practical approach for reducing bias while increasing precision and the amount of information gained from mark–resight data sets. We provide implementations in both the BUGS language and an R package.

  3. Estimation of atmospheric parameters from time-lapse imagery

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCrae, Jack E.; Basu, Santasri; Fiorino, Steven T.

    2016-05-01

    A time-lapse imaging experiment was conducted to estimate various atmospheric parameters for the imaging path. Atmospheric turbulence caused frame-to-frame shifts of the entire image as well as parts of the image. The statistics of these shifts encode information about the turbulence strength (as characterized by Cn2, the refractive index structure function constant) along the optical path. The shift variance observed is simply proportional to the variance of the tilt of the optical field averaged over the area being tracked. By presuming this turbulence follows the Kolmogorov spectrum, weighting functions can be derived which relate the turbulence strength along the path to the shifts measured. These weighting functions peak at the camera and fall to zero at the object. The larger the area observed, the more quickly the weighting function decays. One parameter we would like to estimate is r0 (the Fried parameter, or atmospheric coherence diameter.) The weighting functions derived for pixel sized or larger parts of the image all fall faster than the weighting function appropriate for estimating the spherical wave r0. If we presume Cn2 is constant along the path, then an estimate for r0 can be obtained for each area tracked, but since the weighting function for r0 differs substantially from that for every realizable tracked area, it can be expected this approach would yield a poor estimator. Instead, the weighting functions for a number of different patch sizes can be combined through the Moore-Penrose pseudo-inverse to create a new weighting function which yields the least-squares optimal linear combination of measurements for estimation of r0. This approach is carried out, and it is observed that this approach is somewhat noisy because the pseudo-inverse assigns weights much greater than one to many of the observations.

  4. Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data.

    PubMed

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes.

  5. Parameter Estimation for Groundwater Models under Uncertain Irrigation Data.

    PubMed

    Demissie, Yonas; Valocchi, Albert; Cai, Ximing; Brozovic, Nicholas; Senay, Gabriel; Gebremichael, Mekonnen

    2015-01-01

    The success of modeling groundwater is strongly influenced by the accuracy of the model parameters that are used to characterize the subsurface system. However, the presence of uncertainty and possibly bias in groundwater model source/sink terms may lead to biased estimates of model parameters and model predictions when the standard regression-based inverse modeling techniques are used. This study first quantifies the levels of bias in groundwater model parameters and predictions due to the presence of errors in irrigation data. Then, a new inverse modeling technique called input uncertainty weighted least-squares (IUWLS) is presented for unbiased estimation of the parameters when pumping and other source/sink data are uncertain. The approach uses the concept of generalized least-squares method with the weight of the objective function depending on the level of pumping uncertainty and iteratively adjusted during the parameter optimization process. We have conducted both analytical and numerical experiments, using irrigation pumping data from the Republican River Basin in Nebraska, to evaluate the performance of ordinary least-squares (OLS) and IUWLS calibration methods under different levels of uncertainty of irrigation data and calibration conditions. The result from the OLS method shows the presence of statistically significant (p < 0.05) bias in estimated parameters and model predictions that persist despite calibrating the models to different calibration data and sample sizes. However, by directly accounting for the irrigation pumping uncertainties during the calibration procedures, the proposed IUWLS is able to minimize the bias effectively without adding significant computational burden to the calibration processes. PMID:25040235

  6. Beef quality parameters estimation using ultrasound and color images

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Beef quality measurement is a complex task with high economic impact. There is high interest in obtaining an automatic quality parameters estimation in live cattle or post mortem. In this paper we set out to obtain beef quality estimates from the analysis of ultrasound (in vivo) and color images (post mortem), with the measurement of various parameters related to tenderness and amount of meat: rib eye area, percentage of intramuscular fat and backfat thickness or subcutaneous fat. Proposal An algorithm based on curve evolution is implemented to calculate the rib eye area. The backfat thickness is estimated from the profile of distances between two curves that limit the steak and the rib eye, previously detected. A model base in Support Vector Regression (SVR) is trained to estimate the intramuscular fat percentage. A series of features extracted on a region of interest, previously detected in both ultrasound and color images, were proposed. In all cases, a complete evaluation was performed with different databases including: color and ultrasound images acquired by a beef industry expert, intramuscular fat estimation obtained by an expert using a commercial software, and chemical analysis. Conclusions The proposed algorithms show good results to calculate the rib eye area and the backfat thickness measure and profile. They are also promising in predicting the percentage of intramuscular fat. PMID:25734452

  7. Estimation of economic parameters of U.S. hydropower resources

    SciTech Connect

    Hall, Douglas G.; Hunt, Richard T.; Reeves, Kelly S.; Carroll, Greg R.

    2003-06-01

    Tools for estimating the cost of developing and operating and maintaining hydropower resources in the form of regression curves were developed based on historical plant data. Development costs that were addressed included: licensing, construction, and five types of environmental mitigation. It was found that the data for each type of cost correlated well with plant capacity. A tool for estimating the annual and monthly electric generation of hydropower resources was also developed. Additional tools were developed to estimate the cost of upgrading a turbine or a generator. The development and operation and maintenance cost estimating tools, and the generation estimating tool were applied to 2,155 U.S. hydropower sites representing a total potential capacity of 43,036 MW. The sites included totally undeveloped sites, dams without a hydroelectric plant, and hydroelectric plants that could be expanded to achieve greater capacity. Site characteristics and estimated costs and generation for each site were assembled in a database in Excel format that is also included within the EERE Library under the title, “Estimation of Economic Parameters of U.S. Hydropower Resources - INL Hydropower Resource Economics Database.”

  8. ESTIMATION OF DISTANCES TO STARS WITH STELLAR PARAMETERS FROM LAMOST

    SciTech Connect

    Carlin, Jeffrey L.; Newberg, Heidi Jo; Liu, Chao; Deng, Licai; Li, Guangwei; Luo, A-Li; Wu, Yue; Yang, Ming; Zhang, Haotong; Beers, Timothy C.; Chen, Li; Hou, Jinliang; Smith, Martin C.; Guhathakurta, Puragra; Lépine, Sébastien; Yanny, Brian; Zheng, Zheng

    2015-07-15

    We present a method to estimate distances to stars with spectroscopically derived stellar parameters. The technique is a Bayesian approach with likelihood estimated via comparison of measured parameters to a grid of stellar isochrones, and returns a posterior probability density function for each star’s absolute magnitude. This technique is tailored specifically to data from the Large Sky Area Multi-object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope (LAMOST) survey. Because LAMOST obtains roughly 3000 stellar spectra simultaneously within each ∼5° diameter “plate” that is observed, we can use the stellar parameters of the observed stars to account for the stellar luminosity function and target selection effects. This removes biasing assumptions about the underlying populations, both due to predictions of the luminosity function from stellar evolution modeling, and from Galactic models of stellar populations along each line of sight. Using calibration data of stars with known distances and stellar parameters, we show that our method recovers distances for most stars within ∼20%, but with some systematic overestimation of distances to halo giants. We apply our code to the LAMOST database, and show that the current precision of LAMOST stellar parameters permits measurements of distances with ∼40% error bars. This precision should improve as the LAMOST data pipelines continue to be refined.

  9. Terrain mechanical parameters online estimation for lunar rovers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Bing; Cui, Pingyuan; Ju, Hehua

    2007-11-01

    This paper presents a new method for terrain mechanical parameters estimation for a wheeled lunar rover. First, after deducing the detailed distribution expressions of normal stress and sheer stress at the wheel-terrain interface, the force/torque balance equations of the drive wheel for computing terrain mechanical parameters is derived through analyzing the rigid drive wheel of a lunar rover which moves with uniform speed in deformable terrain. Then a two-points Guass-Lengendre numerical integral method is used to simplify the balance equations, after simplifying and rearranging the resolve model are derived which are composed of three non-linear equations. Finally the iterative method of Newton and the steepest descent method are combined to solve the non-linear equations, and the outputs of on-board virtual sensors are used for computing terrain key mechanical parameters i.e. internal friction angle and press-sinkage parameters. Simulation results show correctness under high noises disturbance and effectiveness with low computational complexity, which allows a lunar rover for online terrain mechanical parameters estimation.

  10. Estimation of Nutation Time Constant Model Parameters for On-Axis Spinning Spacecraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlee, Keith; Sudermann, James

    2008-01-01

    Calculating an accurate nutation time constant for a spinning spacecraft is an important step for ensuring mission success. Spacecraft nutation is caused by energy dissipation about the spin axis. Propellant slosh in the spacecraft fuel tanks is the primary source for this dissipation and can be simulated using a forced motion spin table. Mechanical analogs, such as pendulums and rotors, are typically used to simulate propellant slosh. A strong desire exists for an automated method to determine these analog parameters. The method presented accomplishes this task by using a MATLAB Simulink/SimMechanics based simulation that utilizes the Parameter Estimation Tool.

  11. Estimation of parameters for the elimination of an orally administered test substance with unknown absorption.

    PubMed

    Vogt, Josef A; Denzer, Christian

    2013-04-01

    Assessment of the elimination of an oral test dose based on plasma concentration values requires correction for the effect of gastric release and absorption. Irregular uptake processes should be described 'model independently', which requires estimation of a large number of absorption parameters. To limit the associated computational effort a new approach is developed with a reduced number of unknown parameters. A marginalized and regularized absorption approach (MRA) is defined, which uses for the uptake just one parameter to control rigidity of the uptake curve. For validation, elimination and absorption were reproduced using published IVIVC data and a synthetic data set for comparison with approaches using a 'model-free'--staircase function or mechanistic models to describe absorption. MRA performed almost as accurate as well specified mechanistic models, which gave the best reproduction. MRA demonstrated a 50fold increase in computational efficiency compared to other approaches. The absorption estimated for the IVIVC study demonstrated an in vivo-in vitro correlation comparable to published values. The newly developed MRA approach can be used to efficiently and accurately estimate elimination and absorption with a restricted number of adaptive parameters and with automatic adjustment of the complexity of the uptake.

  12. An evolutionary firefly algorithm for the estimation of nonlinear biological model parameters.

    PubMed

    Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Anwar, Sohail; Arjunan, Satya N V

    2013-01-01

    The development of accurate computational models of biological processes is fundamental to computational systems biology. These models are usually represented by mathematical expressions that rely heavily on the system parameters. The measurement of these parameters is often difficult. Therefore, they are commonly estimated by fitting the predicted model to the experimental data using optimization methods. The complexity and nonlinearity of the biological processes pose a significant challenge, however, to the development of accurate and fast optimization methods. We introduce a new hybrid optimization method incorporating the Firefly Algorithm and the evolutionary operation of the Differential Evolution method. The proposed method improves solutions by neighbourhood search using evolutionary procedures. Testing our method on models for the arginine catabolism and the negative feedback loop of the p53 signalling pathway, we found that it estimated the parameters with high accuracy and within a reasonable computation time compared to well-known approaches, including Particle Swarm Optimization, Nelder-Mead, and Firefly Algorithm. We have also verified the reliability of the parameters estimated by the method using an a posteriori practical identifiability test.

  13. Application of parameter estimation to highly unstable aircraft

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Maine, R. E.; Murray, J. E.

    1986-01-01

    The application of parameter estimation to highly unstable aircraft is discussed. Included are a discussion of the problems in applying the output error method to such aircraft and demonstrates that the filter error method eliminates these problems. The paper shows that the maximum likelihood estimator with no process noise does not reduce to the output error method when the system is unstable. It also proposes and demonstrates an ad hoc method that is similar in form to the filter error method, but applicable to nonlinear problems. Flight data from the X-29 forward-swept-wing demonstrator is used to illustrate the problems and methods discussed.

  14. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing.

    PubMed

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-02-12

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is more significant. These results give new insights into the ETAS model and the efficiency of the maximum-likelihood method within this context.

  15. Estimation of the parameters of ETAS models by Simulated Annealing

    PubMed Central

    Lombardi, Anna Maria

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes a new algorithm to estimate the maximum likelihood parameters of an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences (ETAS) model. It is based on Simulated Annealing, a versatile method that solves problems of global optimization and ensures convergence to a global optimum. The procedure is tested on both simulated and real catalogs. The main conclusion is that the method performs poorly as the size of the catalog decreases because the effect of the correlation of the ETAS parameters is more significant. These results give new insights into the ETAS model and the efficiency of the maximum-likelihood method within this context. PMID:25673036

  16. Estimating stellar parameters and interstellar extinction from evolutionary tracks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sichevsky, S.; Malkov, O.

    Developing methods for analyzing and extracting information from modern sky surveys is a challenging task in astrophysical studies. We study possibilities of parameterizing stars and interstellar medium from multicolor photometry performed in three modern photometric surveys: GALEX, SDSS, and 2MASS. For this purpose, we have developed a method to estimate stellar radius from effective temperature and gravity with the help of evolutionary tracks and model stellar atmospheres. In accordance with the evolution rate at every point of the evolutionary track, star formation rate, and initial mass function, a weight is assigned to the resulting value of radius that allows us to estimate the radius more accurately. The method is verified for the most populated areas of the Hertzsprung-Russell diagram: main-sequence stars and red giants, and it was found to be rather precise (for main-sequence stars, the average relative error of radius and its standard deviation are 0.03% and 3.87%, respectively).

  17. Accurate nuclear masses from a three parameter Kohn-Sham DFT approach (BCPM)

    SciTech Connect

    Baldo, M.; Robledo, L. M.; Schuck, P.; Vinas, X.

    2012-10-20

    Given the promising features of the recently proposed Barcelona-Catania-Paris (BCP) functional [1], it is the purpose of this work to still improve on it. It is, for instance, shown that the number of open parameters can be reduced from 4-5 to 2-3, i.e. by practically a factor of two without deteriorating the results.

  18. How accurately can we estimate energetic costs in a marine top predator, the king penguin?

    PubMed

    Halsey, Lewis G; Fahlman, Andreas; Handrich, Yves; Schmidt, Alexander; Woakes, Anthony J; Butler, Patrick J

    2007-01-01

    King penguins (Aptenodytes patagonicus) are one of the greatest consumers of marine resources. However, while their influence on the marine ecosystem is likely to be significant, only an accurate knowledge of their energy demands will indicate their true food requirements. Energy consumption has been estimated for many marine species using the heart rate-rate of oxygen consumption (f(H) - V(O2)) technique, and the technique has been applied successfully to answer eco-physiological questions. However, previous studies on the energetics of king penguins, based on developing or applying this technique, have raised a number of issues about the degree of validity of the technique for this species. These include the predictive validity of the present f(H) - V(O2) equations across different seasons and individuals and during different modes of locomotion. In many cases, these issues also apply to other species for which the f(H) - V(O2) technique has been applied. In the present study, the accuracy of three prediction equations for king penguins was investigated based on validity studies and on estimates of V(O2) from published, field f(H) data. The major conclusions from the present study are: (1) in contrast to that for walking, the f(H) - V(O2) relationship for swimming king penguins is not affected by body mass; (2) prediction equation (1), log(V(O2) = -0.279 + 1.24log(f(H) + 0.0237t - 0.0157log(f(H)t, derived in a previous study, is the most suitable equation presently available for estimating V(O2) in king penguins for all locomotory and nutritional states. A number of possible problems associated with producing an f(H) - V(O2) relationship are discussed in the present study. Finally, a statistical method to include easy-to-measure morphometric characteristics, which may improve the accuracy of f(H) - V(O2) prediction equations, is explained. PMID:17363231

  19. Evaluation of Three Methods for Determining EMG-Muscle Force Parameter Estimates for the Shoulder Muscles

    PubMed Central

    Gatti, Christopher J.; Doro, Lisa Case; Langenderfer, Joseph E.; Mell, Amy G.; Maratt, Joseph D.; Carpenter, James E.; Hughes, Richard E.

    2008-01-01

    Background Accurate prediction of in vivo muscle forces is essential for relevant analyses of musculoskeletal biomechanics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate three methods for predicting muscle forces of the shoulder by comparing calculated muscle parameters, which relate electromyographic activity to muscle forces. Methods Thirteen subjects performed sub-maximal, isometric contractions consisting of six actions about the shoulder and two actions about the elbow. Electromyography from 12 shoulder muscles and internal shoulder moments were used to determine muscle parameters using traditional multiple linear regression, principal-components regression, and a sequential muscle parameter determination process using principal-components regression. Muscle parameters were evaluated based on their sign (positive or negative), standard deviations, and error between the measured and predicted internal shoulder moments. Findings It was found that no method was superior with respect to all evaluation criteria. The sequential principal-components regression method most frequently produced muscle parameters that could be used to estimate muscle forces, multiple regression best predicted the measured internal shoulder moments, and the results of principal-components regression fell between those of sequential principal-components regression and multiple regression. Interpretation The selection of a muscle parameter estimation method should be based on the importance of the evaluation criteria. Sequential principal-components regression should be used if a greater number of physiologically accurate muscle forces are desired, while multiple regression should be used for a more accurate prediction of measured internal shoulder moments. However, all methods produced muscle parameters which can be used to predict in vivo muscle forces of the shoulder. PMID:17945401

  20. On Using Exponential Parameter Estimators with an Adaptive Controller

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Patre, Parag; Joshi, Suresh M.

    2011-01-01

    Typical adaptive controllers are restricted to using a specific update law to generate parameter estimates. This paper investigates the possibility of using any exponential parameter estimator with an adaptive controller such that the system tracks a desired trajectory. The goal is to provide flexibility in choosing any update law suitable for a given application. The development relies on a previously developed concept of controller/update law modularity in the adaptive control literature, and the use of a converse Lyapunov-like theorem. Stability analysis is presented to derive gain conditions under which this is possible, and inferences are made about the tracking error performance. The development is based on a class of Euler-Lagrange systems that are used to model various engineering systems including space robots and manipulators.

  1. Estimation of Geodetic and Geodynamical Parameters with VieVS

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Spicakova, Hana; Bohm, Johannes; Bohm, Sigrid; Nilsson, tobias; Pany, Andrea; Plank, Lucia; Teke, Kamil; Schuh, Harald

    2010-01-01

    Since 2008 the VLBI group at the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics at TU Vienna has focused on the development of a new VLBI data analysis software called VieVS (Vienna VLBI Software). One part of the program, currently under development, is a unit for parameter estimation in so-called global solutions, where the connection of the single sessions is done by stacking at the normal equation level. We can determine time independent geodynamical parameters such as Love and Shida numbers of the solid Earth tides. Apart from the estimation of the constant nominal values of Love and Shida numbers for the second degree of the tidal potential, it is possible to determine frequency dependent values in the diurnal band together with the resonance frequency of Free Core Nutation. In this paper we show first results obtained from the 24-hour IVS R1 and R4 sessions.

  2. Identification of vehicle parameters and estimation of vertical forces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Imine, H.; Fridman, L.; Madani, T.

    2015-12-01

    The aim of the present work is to estimate the vertical forces and to identify the unknown dynamic parameters of a vehicle using the sliding mode observers approach. The estimation of vertical forces needs a good knowledge of dynamic parameters such as damping coefficient, spring stiffness and unsprung masses, etc. In this paper, suspension stiffness and unsprung masses have been identified by the Least Square Method. Real-time tests have been carried out on an instrumented static vehicle, excited vertically by hydraulic jacks. The vehicle is equipped with different sensors in order to measure its dynamics. The measurements coming from these sensors have been considered as unknown inputs of the system. However, only the roll angle and the suspension deflection measurements have been used in order to perform the observer. Experimental results are presented and discussed to show the quality of the proposed approach.

  3. CosmoSIS: A System for MC Parameter Estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Zuntz, Joe; Paterno, Marc; Jennings, Elise; Rudd, Douglas; Manzotti, Alessandro; Dodelson, Scott; Bridle, Sarah; Sehrish, Saba; Kowalkowski, James

    2015-01-01

    Cosmological parameter estimation is entering a new era. Large collaborations need to coordinate high-stakes analyses using multiple methods; furthermore such analyses have grown in complexity due to sophisticated models of cosmology and systematic uncertainties. In this paper we argue that modularity is the key to addressing these challenges: calculations should be broken up into interchangeable modular units with inputs and outputs clearly defined. We present a new framework for cosmological parameter estimation, CosmoSIS, designed to connect together, share, and advance development of inference tools across the community. We describe the modules already available in Cosmo- SIS, including camb, Planck, cosmic shear calculations, and a suite of samplers. We illustrate it using demonstration code that you can run out-of-the-box with the installer available at http://bitbucket.org/joezuntz/cosmosis.

  4. A Bayesian consistent dual ensemble Kalman filter for state-parameter estimation in subsurface hydrology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ait-El-Fquih, Boujemaa; El Gharamti, Mohamad; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2016-08-01

    Ensemble Kalman filtering (EnKF) is an efficient approach to addressing uncertainties in subsurface groundwater models. The EnKF sequentially integrates field data into simulation models to obtain a better characterization of the model's state and parameters. These are generally estimated following joint and dual filtering strategies, in which, at each assimilation cycle, a forecast step by the model is followed by an update step with incoming observations. The joint EnKF directly updates the augmented state-parameter vector, whereas the dual EnKF empirically employs two separate filters, first estimating the parameters and then estimating the state based on the updated parameters. To develop a Bayesian consistent dual approach and improve the state-parameter estimates and their consistency, we propose in this paper a one-step-ahead (OSA) smoothing formulation of the state-parameter Bayesian filtering problem from which we derive a new dual-type EnKF, the dual EnKFOSA. Compared with the standard dual EnKF, it imposes a new update step to the state, which is shown to enhance the performance of the dual approach with almost no increase in the computational cost. Numerical experiments are conducted with a two-dimensional (2-D) synthetic groundwater aquifer model to investigate the performance and robustness of the proposed dual EnKFOSA, and to evaluate its results against those of the joint and dual EnKFs. The proposed scheme is able to successfully recover both the hydraulic head and the aquifer conductivity, providing further reliable estimates of their uncertainties. Furthermore, it is found to be more robust to different assimilation settings, such as the spatial and temporal distribution of the observations, and the level of noise in the data. Based on our experimental setups, it yields up to 25 % more accurate state and parameter estimations than the joint and dual approaches.

  5. Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation using optimal estimation techniques, volume 1

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1983-01-01

    The mathematical developments and their computer program implementation for the Space Shuttle propulsion parameter estimation project are summarized. The estimation approach chosen is the extended Kalman filtering with a modified Bryson-Frazier smoother. Its use here is motivated by the objective of obtaining better estimates than those available from filtering and to eliminate the lag associated with filtering. The estimation technique uses as the dynamical process the six degree equations-of-motion resulting in twelve state vector elements. In addition to these are mass and solid propellant burn depth as the ""system'' state elements. The ""parameter'' state elements can include aerodynamic coefficient, inertia, center-of-gravity, atmospheric wind, etc. deviations from referenced values. Propulsion parameter state elements have been included not as options just discussed but as the main parameter states to be estimated. The mathematical developments were completed for all these parameters. Since the systems dynamics and measurement processes are non-linear functions of the states, the mathematical developments are taken up almost entirely by the linearization of these equations as required by the estimation algorithms.

  6. Estimation of Parameters from Discrete Random Nonstationary Time Series

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Takayasu, H.; Nakamura, T.

    For the analysis of nonstationary stochastic time series we introduce a formulation to estimate the underlying time-dependent parameters. This method is designed for random events with small numbers that are out of the applicability range of the normal distribution. The method is demonstrated for numerical data generated by a known system, and applied to time series of traffic accidents, batting average of a baseball player and sales volume of home electronics.

  7. Accuracy in parameter estimation in cluster randomized designs.

    PubMed

    Pornprasertmanit, Sunthud; Schneider, W Joel

    2014-09-01

    When planning to conduct a study, not only is it important to select a sample size that will ensure adequate statistical power, often it is important to select a sample size that results in accurate effect size estimates. In cluster-randomized designs (CRD), such planning presents special challenges. In CRD studies, instead of assigning individual objects to treatment conditions, objects are grouped in clusters, and these clusters are then assigned to different treatment conditions. Sample size in CRD studies is a function of 2 components: the number of clusters and the cluster size. Planning to conduct a CRD study is difficult because 2 distinct sample size combinations might be associated with similar costs but can result in dramatically different levels of statistical power and accuracy in effect size estimation. Thus, we present a method that assists researchers in finding the least expensive sample size combination that still results in adequate accuracy in effect size estimation. Alternatively, if researchers have a fixed budget, they can select the sample size combination that results in the most precise estimate of effect size. A free computer program that automates these procedures is available. PMID:25046449

  8. Multi-criteria parameter estimation for the Unified Land Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livneh, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-08-01

    We describe a parameter estimation framework for the Unified Land Model (ULM) that utilizes multiple independent data sets over the continental United States. These include a satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) product based on MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) imagery, an atmospheric-water balance based ET estimate that utilizes North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric fields, terrestrial water storage content (TWSC) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and streamflow (Q) primarily from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges. The study domain includes 10 large-scale (≥105 km2) river basins and 250 smaller-scale (<104 km2) tributary basins. ULM, which is essentially a merger of the Noah Land Surface Model and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model, is the basis for these experiments. Calibrations were made using each of the data sets individually, in addition to combinations of multiple criteria, with multi-criteria skill scores computed for all cases. At large scales, calibration to Q resulted in the best overall performance, whereas certain combinations of ET and TWSC calibrations lead to large errors in other criteria. At small scales, about one-third of the basins had their highest Q performance from multi-criteria calibrations (to Q and ET) suggesting that traditional calibration to Q may benefit by supplementing observed Q with remote sensing estimates of ET. Model streamflow errors using optimized parameters were mostly due to over (under) estimation of low (high) flows. Overall, uncertainties in remote-sensing data proved to be a limiting factor in the utility of multi-criteria parameter estimation.

  9. Multi-criteria parameter estimation for the unified land model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Livneh, B.; Lettenmaier, D. P.

    2012-04-01

    We describe a parameter estimation framework for the Unified Land Model (ULM) that utilizes multiple independent data sets over the Continental United States. These include a satellite-based evapotranspiration (ET) product based on MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Geostationary Operation Environmental Satellites (GOES) imagery, an atmospheric-water balance based ET estimate that utilizes North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) atmospheric fields, terrestrial water storage content (TWSC) data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), and streamflow (Q) primarily from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauges. The study domain includes 10 large-scale (≥105 km2) river basins and 250 smaller-scale (<104 km2) tributary basins. ULM, which is essentially a merger of the Noah Land Surface Model and Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, is the basis for these experiments. Calibrations were made using each of the criteria individually, in addition to combinations of multiple criteria, with multi-criteria skill scores computed for all cases. At large-scales calibration to Q resulted in the best overall performance, whereas certain combinations of ET and TWSC calibrations lead to large errors in other criteria. At small scales, about one-third of the basins had their highest Q performance from multi-criteria calibrations (to Q and ET) suggesting that traditional calibration to Q may benefit by supplementing observed Q with remote sensing estimates of ET. Model streamflow errors using optimized parameters were mostly due to over (under) estimation of low (high) flows. Overall, uncertainties in remote-sensing data proved to be a limiting factor in the utility of multi-criteria parameter estimation.

  10. Revised digestive parameter estimates for the Molly cow model.

    PubMed

    Hanigan, M D; Appuhamy, J A D R N; Gregorini, P

    2013-06-01

    The Molly cow model represents nutrient digestion and metabolism based on a mechanistic representation of the key biological elements. Digestive parameters were derived ad hoc from literature observations or were assumed. Preliminary work determined that several of these parameters did not represent the true relationships. The current work was undertaken to derive ruminal and postruminal digestive parameters and to use a meta-approach to assess the effects of interactions among nutrients and identify areas of model weakness. Model predictions were compared with a database of literature observations containing 233 treatment means. Mean square prediction errors were assessed to characterize model performance. Ruminal pH prediction equations had substantial mean bias, which caused problems in fiber digestion and microbial growth predictions. The pH prediction equation was reparameterized simultaneously with the several ruminal and postruminal digestion parameters, resulting in more realistic parameter estimates for ruminal fiber digestion, and moderate reductions in prediction errors for pH, neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, and microbial N outflow from the rumen; and postruminal digestion of neutral detergent fiber, acid detergent fiber, and protein. Prediction errors are still large for ruminal ammonia and outflow of starch from the rumen. The gain in microbial efficiency associated with fat feeding was found to be more than twice the original estimate, but in contrast to prior assumptions, fat feeding did not exert negative effects on fiber and protein degradation in the rumen. Microbial responses to ruminal ammonia concentrations were half saturated at 0.2mM versus the original estimate of 1.2mM. Residuals analyses indicated that additional progress could be made in predicting microbial N outflow, volatile fatty acid production and concentrations, and cycling of N between blood and the rumen. These additional corrections should lead to an even more

  11. Accounting for Transport Parameter Uncertainty in Geostatistical Groundwater Contaminant Release History Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ostrowski, J.; Shlomi, S.; Michalak, A.

    2007-12-01

    The process of estimating the release history of a contaminant in groundwater relies on coupling a limited number of concentration measurements with a groundwater flow and transport model in an inverse modeling framework. The information provided by available measurements is generally not sufficient to fully characterize the unknown release history; therefore, an accurate assessment of the estimation uncertainty is required. The modeler's level of confidence in the transport parameters, expressed as pdfs, can be incorporated into the inverse model to improve the accuracy of the release estimates. In this work, geostatistical inverse modeling is used in conjunction with Monte Carlo sampling of transport parameters to estimate groundwater contaminant release histories. Concentration non-negativity is enforced using a Gibbs sampling algorithm based on a truncated normal distribution. The method is applied to two one-dimensional test cases: a hypothetical dataset commonly used in validating contaminant source identification methods, and data collected from a tetrachloroethylene and trichloroethylene plume at the Dover Air Force Base in Delaware. The estimated release histories and associated uncertainties are compared to results from a geostatistical inverse model where uncertainty in transport parameters is ignored. Results show that the a posteriori uncertainty associated with the model that accounts for parameter uncertainty is higher, but that this model provides a more realistic representation of the release history based on available data. This modified inverse modeling technique has many applications, including assignment of liability in groundwater contamination cases, characterization of groundwater contamination, and model calibration.

  12. Testing Different Methods for Estimating Uncertainties on Rietveld Refined Parameters Using SrRietveld

    SciTech Connect

    Billinge S. J.; Tian, P.

    2011-12-01

    The advent of fast computing allows more computationally expensive, though possibly more accurate, approaches for estimating uncertainties on Rietveld refined parameters. Here we compare three such methods, using two different refinement programs, FullProf and GSAS. This is facilitated by the use of a new Rietveld refinement package, SrRietveld, that provides Python wrappers for FullProf and GSAS. The refined values on the parameters from two different refinement engines match each other very well. The uncertainty estimates determined using the different methods are also consistent, though FullProf and GSAS estimate the parameter uncertainties slightly differently from each other, which is discussed. More importantly, we find that the refined results are very sensitive to the statistical weights used in the least squares equation. Different weights, for example from uncertain or incorrectly propagated random errors on the data, lead to significantly different refined values. This means that uncertainty estimates on refined parameters should be increased when the random errors on the data are not well known, as for example in many cases where area detectors are used, and care should be taken to propagate errors correctly in any data preprocessing such as normalization by a smoothed spectrum. The computationally expensive bootstrap error estimation methods are facilitated by the use of SrRietveld, but are not required in most cases though may be useful in some cases, for example if the random errors on the data are not well known.

  13. Micro-vibration model and parameter estimation method of a reaction wheel assembly

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Dae-Kwan

    2014-09-01

    Reaction wheel assemblies (RWAs) are a source of disturbance in satellites, and they are regarded as the largest jitter contributor in optical payloads. In order to ensure a stringent jitter requirement, the wheel disturbance effects on spacecraft should be predicted precisely prior to launch through analytical or experimental approaches. For this purpose, the wheel disturbance should be identified and modeled accurately. In the present study, a micro-vibration model of the RWA is introduced through coupling an analytical wheel model and an empirical disturbance model; furthermore, a parameter estimation process of the coupled model from the micro-vibration disturbance data is proposed. In order to verify the modeling and estimation techniques, a micro-vibration model of a numerical RWA is established and its estimation error is validated. Then, the micro-vibration model is extended to consider an axial disturbance and a measurement offset effect. Finally, the micro-vibration model is applied to a commercial RWA and the model parameters are extracted from the disturbance test data of the RWA using the parameter estimation process. The analytical and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed micro-vibration model and parameter estimation process are effective in the dynamic disturbance modeling of RWAs.

  14. Estimating Sea Ice Parameters from Multi-Look SAR Images Using - and Second-Order Variograms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Xiaojian; Li, Yu; Zhao, Quanhua

    2016-06-01

    The spatial structures revealed in SAR intensity imagery provide essential information characterizing the natural variation processes of sea ice. This paper proposes a new method to extract the spatial structures of sea ice based on two spatial stochastic models. One is a multi-Gamma model, which characterizes continuous variations corresponding to ice-free area or the background. The other is a Poisson line mosaic model, which characterizes the regional variations of sea ice with different types. The linear combination of the two models builds the mixture model to represent spatial structures of sea ice within SAR intensity imagery. To estimate different sea ice parameters, such as its concentration, scale etc. We define two kinds of geostatistic metrics, theoretical first- and second-order variograms. Their experimental alternatives can be calculated from the SAR intensity imagery directly, then the parameters of the mixture model are estimated through fitting the theoretical variograms to the experimental ones, and by comparing the estimated parameters to the egg code, it is verified that the estimated parameters can indicate sea ice structure information showing in the egg code. The proposed method is applied to simulated images and Radarsat-1 images. The results of the experiments show that the proposed method can estimate the sea ice concentration and floe size accurately and stably within SAR testing images.

  15. Parameter estimation for inspiraling eccentric compact binaries including pericenter precession

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mikóczi, Balázs; Kocsis, Bence; Forgács, Péter; Vasúth, Mátyás

    2012-11-01

    Inspiraling supermassive black hole binary systems with high orbital eccentricity are important sources for space-based gravitational wave observatories like the Laser Interferometer Space Antenna. Eccentricity adds orbital harmonics to the Fourier transform of the gravitational wave signal, and relativistic pericenter precession leads to a three-way splitting of each harmonic peak. We study the parameter estimation accuracy for such waveforms with different initial eccentricity, using the Fisher matrix method and a Monte Carlo sampling of the initial binary orientation. The eccentricity improves the parameter estimation by breaking degeneracies between different parameters. In particular, we find that the source localization precision improves significantly for higher-mass binaries due to eccentricity. The typical sky position errors are ˜1deg for a nonspinning, 107M⊙, equal-mass binary at redshift z=1, if the initial eccentricity 1 yr before merger is e0˜0.6. Pericenter precession does not affect the source localization accuracy significantly, but it does further improve the mass and eccentricity estimation accuracy systematically by a factor of 3-10 for masses between 106M⊙ and 107M⊙ for e0˜0.3.

  16. Estimating Hydraulic Parameters When Poroelastic Effects Are Significant

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Berg, S.J.; Hsieh, P.A.; Illman, W.A.

    2011-01-01

    For almost 80 years, deformation-induced head changes caused by poroelastic effects have been observed during pumping tests in multilayered aquifer-aquitard systems. As water in the aquifer is released from compressive storage during pumping, the aquifer is deformed both in the horizontal and vertical directions. This deformation in the pumped aquifer causes deformation in the adjacent layers, resulting in changes in pore pressure that may produce drawdown curves that differ significantly from those predicted by traditional groundwater theory. Although these deformation-induced head changes have been analyzed in several studies by poroelasticity theory, there are at present no practical guidelines for the interpretation of pumping test data influenced by these effects. To investigate the impact that poroelastic effects during pumping tests have on the estimation of hydraulic parameters, we generate synthetic data for three different aquifer-aquitard settings using a poroelasticity model, and then analyze the synthetic data using type curves and parameter estimation techniques, both of which are based on traditional groundwater theory and do not account for poroelastic effects. Results show that even when poroelastic effects result in significant deformation-induced head changes, it is possible to obtain reasonable estimates of hydraulic parameters using methods based on traditional groundwater theory, as long as pumping is sufficiently long so that deformation-induced effects have largely dissipated. ?? 2011 The Author(s). Journal compilation ?? 2011 National Ground Water Association.

  17. Hydraulic parameters estimation from well logging resistivity and geoelectrical measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Perdomo, S.; Ainchil, J. E.; Kruse, E.

    2014-06-01

    In this paper, a methodology is suggested for deriving hydraulic parameters, such as hydraulic conductivity or transmissivity combining classical hydrogeological data with geophysical measurements. Estimates values of transmissivity and conductivity, with this approach, can reduce uncertainties in numerical model calibration and improve data coverage, reducing time and cost of a hydrogeological investigation at a regional scale. The conventional estimation of hydrogeological parameters needs to be done by analyzing wells data or laboratory measurements. Furthermore, to make a regional survey many wells should be considered, and the location of each one plays an important role in the interpretation stage. For this reason, the use of geoelectrical methods arises as an effective complementary technique, especially in developing countries where it is necessary to optimize resources. By combining hydraulic parameters from pumping tests and electrical resistivity from well logging profiles, it was possible to adjust three empirical laws in a semi-confined alluvial aquifer in the northeast of the province of Buenos Aires (Argentina). These relations were also tested to be used with surficial geoelectrical data. The hydraulic conductivity and transmissivity estimated in porous material were according to expected values for the region (20 m/day; 457 m2/day), and are very consistent with previous results from other authors (25 m/day and 500 m2/day). The methodology described could be used with similar data sets and applied to other areas with similar hydrogeological conditions.

  18. Parameter Estimation and Parameterization Uncertainty Using Bayesian Model Averaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tsai, F. T.; Li, X.

    2007-12-01

    This study proposes Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to address parameter estimation uncertainty arisen from non-uniqueness in parameterization methods. BMA provides a means of incorporating multiple parameterization methods for prediction through the law of total probability, with which an ensemble average of hydraulic conductivity distribution is obtained. Estimation uncertainty is described by the BMA variances, which contain variances within and between parameterization methods. BMA shows the facts that considering more parameterization methods tends to increase estimation uncertainty and estimation uncertainty is always underestimated using a single parameterization method. Two major problems in applying BMA to hydraulic conductivity estimation using a groundwater inverse method will be discussed in the study. The first problem is the use of posterior probabilities in BMA, which tends to single out one best method and discard other good methods. This problem arises from Occam's window that only accepts models in a very narrow range. We propose a variance window to replace Occam's window to cope with this problem. The second problem is the use of Kashyap information criterion (KIC), which makes BMA tend to prefer high uncertain parameterization methods due to considering the Fisher information matrix. We found that Bayesian information criterion (BIC) is a good approximation to KIC and is able to avoid controversial results. We applied BMA to hydraulic conductivity estimation in the 1,500-foot sand aquifer in East Baton Rouge Parish, Louisiana.

  19. Estimating cellular parameters through optimization procedures: elementary principles and applications.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Akatsuki; Celani, Antonio; Nagao, Hiromichi; Stasevich, Timothy; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Construction of quantitative models is a primary goal of quantitative biology, which aims to understand cellular and organismal phenomena in a quantitative manner. In this article, we introduce optimization procedures to search for parameters in a quantitative model that can reproduce experimental data. The aim of optimization is to minimize the sum of squared errors (SSE) in a prediction or to maximize likelihood. A (local) maximum of likelihood or (local) minimum of the SSE can efficiently be identified using gradient approaches. Addition of a stochastic process enables us to identify the global maximum/minimum without becoming trapped in local maxima/minima. Sampling approaches take advantage of increasing computational power to test numerous sets of parameters in order to determine the optimum set. By combining Bayesian inference with gradient or sampling approaches, we can estimate both the optimum parameters and the form of the likelihood function related to the parameters. Finally, we introduce four examples of research that utilize parameter optimization to obtain biological insights from quantified data: transcriptional regulation, bacterial chemotaxis, morphogenesis, and cell cycle regulation. With practical knowledge of parameter optimization, cell and developmental biologists can develop realistic models that reproduce their observations and thus, obtain mechanistic insights into phenomena of interest.

  20. Estimating cellular parameters through optimization procedures: elementary principles and applications.

    PubMed

    Kimura, Akatsuki; Celani, Antonio; Nagao, Hiromichi; Stasevich, Timothy; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Construction of quantitative models is a primary goal of quantitative biology, which aims to understand cellular and organismal phenomena in a quantitative manner. In this article, we introduce optimization procedures to search for parameters in a quantitative model that can reproduce experimental data. The aim of optimization is to minimize the sum of squared errors (SSE) in a prediction or to maximize likelihood. A (local) maximum of likelihood or (local) minimum of the SSE can efficiently be identified using gradient approaches. Addition of a stochastic process enables us to identify the global maximum/minimum without becoming trapped in local maxima/minima. Sampling approaches take advantage of increasing computational power to test numerous sets of parameters in order to determine the optimum set. By combining Bayesian inference with gradient or sampling approaches, we can estimate both the optimum parameters and the form of the likelihood function related to the parameters. Finally, we introduce four examples of research that utilize parameter optimization to obtain biological insights from quantified data: transcriptional regulation, bacterial chemotaxis, morphogenesis, and cell cycle regulation. With practical knowledge of parameter optimization, cell and developmental biologists can develop realistic models that reproduce their observations and thus, obtain mechanistic insights into phenomena of interest. PMID:25784880

  1. Estimating cellular parameters through optimization procedures: elementary principles and applications

    PubMed Central

    Kimura, Akatsuki; Celani, Antonio; Nagao, Hiromichi; Stasevich, Timothy; Nakamura, Kazuyuki

    2015-01-01

    Construction of quantitative models is a primary goal of quantitative biology, which aims to understand cellular and organismal phenomena in a quantitative manner. In this article, we introduce optimization procedures to search for parameters in a quantitative model that can reproduce experimental data. The aim of optimization is to minimize the sum of squared errors (SSE) in a prediction or to maximize likelihood. A (local) maximum of likelihood or (local) minimum of the SSE can efficiently be identified using gradient approaches. Addition of a stochastic process enables us to identify the global maximum/minimum without becoming trapped in local maxima/minima. Sampling approaches take advantage of increasing computational power to test numerous sets of parameters in order to determine the optimum set. By combining Bayesian inference with gradient or sampling approaches, we can estimate both the optimum parameters and the form of the likelihood function related to the parameters. Finally, we introduce four examples of research that utilize parameter optimization to obtain biological insights from quantified data: transcriptional regulation, bacterial chemotaxis, morphogenesis, and cell cycle regulation. With practical knowledge of parameter optimization, cell and developmental biologists can develop realistic models that reproduce their observations and thus, obtain mechanistic insights into phenomena of interest. PMID:25784880

  2. Spacecraft design impacts on the post-Newtonian parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuster, Anja Katharina; et al.

    2015-08-01

    The ESA mission BepiColombo, reaching out to explore the elusive planet Mercury, features unprecedented tracking techniques. The highly precise orbit determination around Mercury is a compelling opportunity for a modern test of General Relativity (GR). Using the software tool GRETCHEN incorporating the Square Root Information Filter (SRIF), MPO's orbit is simulated and the post-Newtonian parameters (PNP) are estimated. In this work, the influence of a specific constraint of the Mercury Orbiter Radio science Experiment (MORE) on the achievable accuracy of the PNP estimates is investigated. The power system design of the spacecraft requires that ±35° around perihelion the Ka transponder needs to be switched off, thus radiometric data is only gathered via X band. This analysis shows the impact of this constraint on the achievable accuracy of PNP estimates. On a bigger scale, if GR shows some violation at a detectable level it inevitably leads to its invalidation.

  3. Estimation of multiexponential fluorescence decay parameters using compressive sensing.

    PubMed

    Yang, Sejung; Lee, Joohyun; Lee, Youmin; Lee, Minyung; Lee, Byung-Uk

    2015-09-01

    Fluorescence lifetime imaging microscopy (FLIM) is a microscopic imaging technique to present an image of fluorophore lifetimes. It circumvents the problems of typical imaging methods such as intensity attenuation from depth since a lifetime is independent of the excitation intensity or fluorophore concentration. The lifetime is estimated from the time sequence of photon counts observed with signal-dependent noise, which has a Poisson distribution. Conventional methods usually estimate single or biexponential decay parameters. However, a lifetime component has a distribution or width, because the lifetime depends on macromolecular conformation or inhomogeneity. We present a novel algorithm based on a sparse representation which can estimate the distribution of lifetime. We verify the enhanced performance through simulations and experiments.

  4. Framework for estimating tumour parameters using thermal imaging

    PubMed Central

    Umadevi, V.; Raghavan, S.V.; Jaipurkar, Sandeep

    2011-01-01

    Background & objectives: Non-invasive and non-ionizing medical imaging techniques are safe as these can be repeatedly used on as individual and are applicable across all age groups. Breast thermography is a non-invasive and non-ionizing medical imaging that can be potentially used in breast cancer detection and diagnosis. In this study, we used breast thermography to estimate the tumour contour from the breast skin surface temperature. Methods: We proposed a framework called infrared thermography based image construction (ITBIC) to estimate tumour parameters such as size and depth from cancerous breast skin surface temperature data. Markov Chain Monte Carlo method was used to enhance the accuracy of estimation in order to reflect clearly realistic situation. Results: We validated our method experimentally using Watermelon and Agar models. For the Watermelon experiment error in estimation of size and depth parameters was 1.5 and 3.8 per cent respectively. For the Agar model it was 0 and 8 per cent respectively. Further, thermal breast screening was done on female volunteers and compared it with the magnetic resonance imaging. The results were positive and encouraging. Interpretation & conclusions: ITBIC is computationally fast thermal imaging system and is perhaps affordable. Such a system will be useful for doctors or radiologists for breast cancer diagnosis. PMID:22199114

  5. Estimating demographic parameters using hidden process dynamic models.

    PubMed

    Gimenez, Olivier; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; Choquet, Rémi; Pradel, Roger

    2012-12-01

    Structured population models are widely used in plant and animal demographic studies to assess population dynamics. In matrix population models, populations are described with discrete classes of individuals (age, life history stage or size). To calibrate these models, longitudinal data are collected at the individual level to estimate demographic parameters. However, several sources of uncertainty can complicate parameter estimation, such as imperfect detection of individuals inherent to monitoring in the wild and uncertainty in assigning a state to an individual. Here, we show how recent statistical models can help overcome these issues. We focus on hidden process models that run two time series in parallel, one capturing the dynamics of the true states and the other consisting of observations arising from these underlying possibly unknown states. In a first case study, we illustrate hidden Markov models with an example of how to accommodate state uncertainty using Frequentist theory and maximum likelihood estimation. In a second case study, we illustrate state-space models with an example of how to estimate lifetime reproductive success despite imperfect detection, using a Bayesian framework and Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation. Hidden process models are a promising tool as they allow population biologists to cope with process variation while simultaneously accounting for observation error. PMID:22373775

  6. CosmoSIS: A system for MC parameter estimation

    SciTech Connect

    Bridle, S.; Dodelson, S.; Jennings, E.; Kowalkowski, J.; Manzotti, A.; Paterno, M.; Rudd, D.; Sehrish, S.; Zuntz, J.

    2015-01-01

    CosmoSIS is a modular system for cosmological parameter estimation, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and related techniques. It provides a series of samplers, which drive the exploration of the parameter space, and a series of modules, which calculate the likelihood of the observed data for a given physical model, determined by the location of a sample in the parameter space. While CosmoSIS ships with a set of modules that calculate quantities of interest to cosmologists, there is nothing about the framework itself, nor in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, that is specific to cosmology. Thus CosmoSIS could be used for parameter estimation problems in other fields, including HEP. This paper describes the features of CosmoSIS and show an example of its use outside of cosmology. Furthermore, it also discusses how collaborative development strategies differ between two different communities: that of HEP physicists, accustomed to working in large collaborations, and that of cosmologists, who have traditionally not worked in large groups.

  7. CosmoSIS: A system for MC parameter estimation

    DOE PAGES

    Bridle, S.; Dodelson, S.; Jennings, E.; Kowalkowski, J.; Manzotti, A.; Paterno, M.; Rudd, D.; Sehrish, S.; Zuntz, J.

    2015-01-01

    CosmoSIS is a modular system for cosmological parameter estimation, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo and related techniques. It provides a series of samplers, which drive the exploration of the parameter space, and a series of modules, which calculate the likelihood of the observed data for a given physical model, determined by the location of a sample in the parameter space. While CosmoSIS ships with a set of modules that calculate quantities of interest to cosmologists, there is nothing about the framework itself, nor in the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique, that is specific to cosmology. Thus CosmoSIS could bemore » used for parameter estimation problems in other fields, including HEP. This paper describes the features of CosmoSIS and show an example of its use outside of cosmology. Furthermore, it also discusses how collaborative development strategies differ between two different communities: that of HEP physicists, accustomed to working in large collaborations, and that of cosmologists, who have traditionally not worked in large groups.« less

  8. Effects of parameter estimation on maximum-likelihood bootstrap analysis.

    PubMed

    Ripplinger, Jennifer; Abdo, Zaid; Sullivan, Jack

    2010-08-01

    Bipartition support in maximum-likelihood (ML) analysis is most commonly assessed using the nonparametric bootstrap. Although bootstrap replicates should theoretically be analyzed in the same manner as the original data, model selection is almost never conducted for bootstrap replicates, substitution-model parameters are often fixed to their maximum-likelihood estimates (MLEs) for the empirical data, and bootstrap replicates may be subjected to less rigorous heuristic search strategies than the original data set. Even though this approach may increase computational tractability, it may also lead to the recovery of suboptimal tree topologies and affect bootstrap values. However, since well-supported bipartitions are often recovered regardless of method, use of a less intensive bootstrap procedure may not significantly affect the results. In this study, we investigate the impact of parameter estimation (i.e., assessment of substitution-model parameters and tree topology) on ML bootstrap analysis. We find that while forgoing model selection and/or setting substitution-model parameters to their empirical MLEs may lead to significantly different bootstrap values, it probably would not change their biological interpretation. Similarly, even though the use of reduced search methods often results in significant differences among bootstrap values, only omitting branch swapping is likely to change any biological inferences drawn from the data.

  9. Entanglement detection and parameter estimation of quantum channels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Suzuki, Jun

    2016-10-01

    We derive a general criterion to detect entangled states in multipartite systems based on the symmetric logarithmic derivative quantum Fisher information. This criterion is a direct consequence of the fact that separable states do not improve the accuracy upon estimating the one-parameter family of quantum channels. Our result is a generalization of the previously known criterion for the one-parameter unitary channel to any one-parameter quantum channel. Several variants of the proposed criterion are also given, and then the general structure is revealed behind this sort of entanglement criteria based on quantum Fisher information. We discuss several examples to illustrate our criterion. In the last part, we briefly show how the proposed criterion can be extended to a more general setting that is applicable for a certain class of open quantum systems, and we discuss how to detect entangled states even in the presence of decoherence.

  10. Automatic estimation of aquifer parameters using long-term water supply pumping and injection records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Luo, Ning; Illman, Walter A.

    2016-09-01

    Analyses are presented of long-term hydrographs perturbed by variable pumping/injection events in a confined aquifer at a municipal water-supply well field in the Region of Waterloo, Ontario (Canada). Such records are typically not considered for aquifer test analysis. Here, the water-level variations are fingerprinted to pumping/injection rate changes using the Theis model implemented in the WELLS code coupled with PEST. Analyses of these records yield a set of transmissivity ( T) and storativity ( S) estimates between each monitoring and production borehole. These individual estimates are found to poorly predict water-level variations at nearby monitoring boreholes not used in the calibration effort. On the other hand, the geometric means of the individual T and S estimates are similar to those obtained from previous pumping tests conducted at the same site and adequately predict water-level variations in other boreholes. The analyses reveal that long-term municipal water-level records are amenable to analyses using a simple analytical solution to estimate aquifer parameters. However, uniform parameters estimated with analytical solutions should be considered as first rough estimates. More accurate hydraulic parameters should be obtained by calibrating a three-dimensional numerical model that rigorously captures the complexities of the site with these data.

  11. Accurate Prediction of Severe Allergic Reactions by a Small Set of Environmental Parameters (NDVI, Temperature)

    PubMed Central

    Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

    2015-01-01

    Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions. PMID:25794106

  12. Combined Estimation of Hydrogeologic Conceptual Model and Parameter Uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Meyer, Philip D.; Ye, Ming; Neuman, Shlomo P.; Cantrell, Kirk J.

    2004-03-01

    The objective of the research described in this report is the development and application of a methodology for comprehensively assessing the hydrogeologic uncertainties involved in dose assessment, including uncertainties associated with conceptual models, parameters, and scenarios. This report describes and applies a statistical method to quantitatively estimate the combined uncertainty in model predictions arising from conceptual model and parameter uncertainties. The method relies on model averaging to combine the predictions of a set of alternative models. Implementation is driven by the available data. When there is minimal site-specific data the method can be carried out with prior parameter estimates based on generic data and subjective prior model probabilities. For sites with observations of system behavior (and optionally data characterizing model parameters), the method uses model calibration to update the prior parameter estimates and model probabilities based on the correspondence between model predictions and site observations. The set of model alternatives can contain both simplified and complex models, with the requirement that all models be based on the same set of data. The method was applied to the geostatistical modeling of air permeability at a fractured rock site. Seven alternative variogram models of log air permeability were considered to represent data from single-hole pneumatic injection tests in six boreholes at the site. Unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of variogram and drift parameters were obtained for each model. Standard information criteria provided an ambiguous ranking of the models, which would not justify selecting one of them and discarding all others as is commonly done in practice. Instead, some of the models were eliminated based on their negligibly small updated probabilities and the rest were used to project the measured log permeabilities by kriging onto a rock volume containing the six boreholes. These four

  13. Skin Temperature Over the Carotid Artery, an Accurate Non-invasive Estimation of Near Core Temperature

    PubMed Central

    Imani, Farsad; Karimi Rouzbahani, Hamid Reza; Goudarzi, Mehrdad; Tarrahi, Mohammad Javad; Ebrahim Soltani, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background: During anesthesia, continuous body temperature monitoring is essential, especially in children. Anesthesia can increase the risk of loss of body temperature by three to four times. Hypothermia in children results in increased morbidity and mortality. Since the measurement points of the core body temperature are not easily accessible, near core sites, like rectum, are used. Objectives: The purpose of this study was to measure skin temperature over the carotid artery and compare it with the rectum temperature, in order to propose a model for accurate estimation of near core body temperature. Patients and Methods: Totally, 124 patients within the age range of 2 - 6 years, undergoing elective surgery, were selected. Temperature of rectum and skin over the carotid artery was measured. Then, the patients were randomly divided into two groups (each including 62 subjects), namely modeling (MG) and validation groups (VG). First, in the modeling group, the average temperature of the rectum and skin over the carotid artery were measured separately. The appropriate model was determined, according to the significance of the model’s coefficients. The obtained model was used to predict the rectum temperature in the second group (VG group). Correlation of the predicted values with the real values (the measured rectum temperature) in the second group was investigated. Also, the difference in the average values of these two groups was examined in terms of significance. Results: In the modeling group, the average rectum and carotid temperatures were 36.47 ± 0.54°C and 35.45 ± 0.62°C, respectively. The final model was obtained, as follows: Carotid temperature × 0.561 + 16.583 = Rectum temperature. The predicted value was calculated based on the regression model and then compared with the measured rectum value, which showed no significant difference (P = 0.361). Conclusions: The present study was the first research, in which rectum temperature was compared with that

  14. An Accurate and Generic Testing Approach to Vehicle Stability Parameters Based on GPS and INS

    PubMed Central

    Miao, Zhibin; Zhang, Hongtian; Zhang, Jinzhu

    2015-01-01

    With the development of the vehicle industry, controlling stability has become more and more important. Techniques of evaluating vehicle stability are in high demand. As a common method, usually GPS sensors and INS sensors are applied to measure vehicle stability parameters by fusing data from the two system sensors. Although prior model parameters should be recognized in a Kalman filter, it is usually used to fuse data from multi-sensors. In this paper, a robust, intelligent and precise method to the measurement of vehicle stability is proposed. First, a fuzzy interpolation method is proposed, along with a four-wheel vehicle dynamic model. Second, a two-stage Kalman filter, which fuses the data from GPS and INS, is established. Next, this approach is applied to a case study vehicle to measure yaw rate and sideslip angle. The results show the advantages of the approach. Finally, a simulation and real experiment is made to verify the advantages of this approach. The experimental results showed the merits of this method for measuring vehicle stability, and the approach can meet the design requirements of a vehicle stability controller. PMID:26690154

  15. Limitations of polynomial chaos in Bayesian parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, F.; Morzfeld, M.; Tu, X.; Chorin, A. J.

    2014-12-01

    In many science or engineering problems one needs to estimate parameters in a model on the basis of noisy data. In a Bayesian approach, prior information and the likelihood of the model and data are combined to yield a posterior that describes the parameters. The posterior can be represented by Monte Carlo sampling, which requires repeated evaluation of the posterior, which in turn requires repeated evaluation of the model. This is expensive if the model is complex or if the dimension of the parameters is high. Polynomial chaos expansions (PCE) have been used to reduce the computational cost by providing an approximate representation of the model based on the prior and, hence, creating a surrogate posterior. This surrogate posterior can be evaluated inexpensively and without solving the model. Here we investigate the accuracy of the surrogate posterior and PCE-based samplers. We show, by analysis of the small noise setting, that the surrogate posterior can be very different from the posterior when the data contains significant information beyond what is assumed in the prior. In this case, the PCE-based parameter estimates are inaccurate. The accuracy can be improved by adaptively increasing the order of the PCE, but the cost may increase too fast for this to be efficient. We illustrate the theory with an example from subsurface hydrodynamics in which we estimate the permeability on the basis of noisy pressure measurements. Our numerical results confirm what we found in theory and indicate that an advanced MC sampler which uses data to generate effective samples can be be more efficient than a PCE-based sampler.

  16. Can a combination of ultrasonographic parameters accurately evaluate concussion and guide return-to-play decisions?

    PubMed

    Cartwright, Michael S; Dupuis, Janae E; Bargoil, Jessica M; Foster, Dana C

    2015-09-01

    Mild traumatic brain injury, often referred to as concussion, is a common, potentially debilitating, and costly condition. One of the main challenges in diagnosing and managing concussion is that there is not currently an objective test to determine the presence of a concussion and to guide return-to-play decisions for athletes. Traditional neuroimaging tests, such as brain magnetic resonance imaging, are normal in concussion, and therefore diagnosis and management are guided by reported symptoms. Some athletes will under-report symptoms to accelerate their return-to-play and others will over-report symptoms out of fear of further injury or misinterpretation of underlying conditions, such as migraine headache. Therefore, an objective measure is needed to assist in several facets of concussion management. Limited data in animal and human testing indicates that intracranial pressure increases slightly and cerebrovascular reactivity (the ability of the cerebral arteries to auto-regulate in response to changes in carbon dioxide) decreases slightly following mild traumatic brain injury. We hypothesize that a combination of ultrasonographic measurements (optic nerve sheath diameter and transcranial Doppler assessment of cerebrovascular reactivity) into a single index will allow for an accurate and non-invasive measurement of intracranial pressure and cerebrovascular reactivity, and this index will be clinically relevant and useful for guiding concussion diagnosis and management. Ultrasound is an ideal modality for the evaluation of concussion because it is portable (allowing for evaluation in many settings, such as on the playing field or in a combat zone), radiation-free (making repeat scans safe), and relatively inexpensive (resulting in nearly universal availability). This paper reviews the literature supporting our hypothesis that an ultrasonographic index can assist in the diagnosis and management of concussion, and it also presents limited data regarding the

  17. Can a combination of ultrasonographic parameters accurately evaluate concussion and guide return-to-play decisions?

    PubMed

    Cartwright, Michael S; Dupuis, Janae E; Bargoil, Jessica M; Foster, Dana C

    2015-09-01

    Mild traumatic brain injury, often referred to as concussion, is a common, potentially debilitating, and costly condition. One of the main challenges in diagnosing and managing concussion is that there is not currently an objective test to determine the presence of a concussion and to guide return-to-play decisions for athletes. Traditional neuroimaging tests, such as brain magnetic resonance imaging, are normal in concussion, and therefore diagnosis and management are guided by reported symptoms. Some athletes will under-report symptoms to accelerate their return-to-play and others will over-report symptoms out of fear of further injury or misinterpretation of underlying conditions, such as migraine headache. Therefore, an objective measure is needed to assist in several facets of concussion management. Limited data in animal and human testing indicates that intracranial pressure increases slightly and cerebrovascular reactivity (the ability of the cerebral arteries to auto-regulate in response to changes in carbon dioxide) decreases slightly following mild traumatic brain injury. We hypothesize that a combination of ultrasonographic measurements (optic nerve sheath diameter and transcranial Doppler assessment of cerebrovascular reactivity) into a single index will allow for an accurate and non-invasive measurement of intracranial pressure and cerebrovascular reactivity, and this index will be clinically relevant and useful for guiding concussion diagnosis and management. Ultrasound is an ideal modality for the evaluation of concussion because it is portable (allowing for evaluation in many settings, such as on the playing field or in a combat zone), radiation-free (making repeat scans safe), and relatively inexpensive (resulting in nearly universal availability). This paper reviews the literature supporting our hypothesis that an ultrasonographic index can assist in the diagnosis and management of concussion, and it also presents limited data regarding the

  18. Can a Combination of Ultrasonographic Parameters Accurately Evaluate Concussion and Guide Return-to-Play Decisions?

    PubMed Central

    Cartwright, Michael S.; Dupuis, Janae E.; Bargoil, Jessica M.; Foster, Dana C.

    2015-01-01

    Mild traumatic brain injury, often referred to as concussion, is a common, potentially debilitating, and costly condition. One of the main challenges in diagnosing and managing concussion is that there is not currently an objective test to determine the presence of a concussion and to guide return-to-play decisions for athletes. Traditional neuroimaging tests, such as brain magnetic resonance imaging, are normal in concussion, and therefore diagnosis and management are guided by reported symptoms. Some athletes will under-report symptoms to accelerate their return-to-play and others will over-report symptoms out of fear of further injury or misinterpretation of underlying conditions, such as migraine headache. Therefore, an objective measure is needed to assist in several facets of concussion management. Limited data in animal and human testing indicates that intracranial pressure increases slightly and cerebrovascular reactivity (the ability of the cerebral arteries to auto-regulate in response to changes in carbon dioxide) decreases slightly following mild traumatic brain injury. We hypothesize that a combination of ultrasonographic measurements (optic nerve sheath diameter and transcranial Doppler assessment of cerebrovascular reactivity) into a single index will allow for an accurate and non-invasive measurement of intracranial pressure and cerebrovascular reactivity, and this index will be clinically relevant and useful for guiding concussion diagnosis and management. Ultrasound is an ideal modality for the evaluation of concussion because it is portable (allowing for evaluation in many settings, such as on the playing field or in a combat zone), radiation-free (making repeat scans safe), and relatively inexpensive (resulting in nearly universal availability). This paper reviews the literature supporting our hypothesis that an ultrasonographic index can assist in the diagnosis and management of concussion, and it also presents limited data regarding the

  19. Volcano deformation source parameters estimated from InSAR: Sensitivities to uncertainties in seismic tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Masterlark, Timothy; Donovan, Theodore; Feigl, Kurt L.; Haney, Matthew; Thurber, Clifford H.; Tung, Sui

    2016-04-01

    The eruption cycle of a volcano is controlled in part by the upward migration of magma. The characteristics of the magma flux produce a deformation signature at the Earth's surface. Inverse analyses use geodetic data to estimate strategic controlling parameters that describe the position and pressurization of a magma chamber at depth. The specific distribution of material properties controls how observed surface deformation translates to source parameter estimates. Seismic tomography models describe the spatial distributions of material properties that are necessary for accurate models of volcano deformation. This study investigates how uncertainties in seismic tomography models propagate into variations in the estimates of volcano deformation source parameters inverted from geodetic data. We conduct finite element model-based nonlinear inverse analyses of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data for Okmok volcano, Alaska, as an example. We then analyze the estimated parameters and their uncertainties to characterize the magma chamber. Analyses are performed separately for models simulating a pressurized chamber embedded in a homogeneous domain as well as for a domain having a heterogeneous distribution of material properties according to seismic tomography. The estimated depth of the source is sensitive to the distribution of material properties. The estimated depths for the homogeneous and heterogeneous domains are 2666 ± 42 and 3527 ± 56 m below mean sea level, respectively (99% confidence). A Monte Carlo analysis indicates that uncertainties of the seismic tomography cannot account for this discrepancy at the 99% confidence level. Accounting for the spatial distribution of elastic properties according to seismic tomography significantly improves the fit of the deformation model predictions and significantly influences estimates for parameters that describe the location of a pressurized magma chamber.

  20. Estimation of genetic parameters for reproductive traits in Shall sheep.

    PubMed

    Amou Posht-e-Masari, Hesam; Shadparvar, Abdol Ahad; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, Navid; Hadi Tavatori, Mohammad Hossein

    2013-06-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for reproductive traits in Shall sheep. Data included 1,316 records on reproductive performances of 395 Shall ewes from 41 sires and 136 dams which were collected from 2001 to 2007 in Shall breeding station in Qazvin province at the Northwest of Iran. Studied traits were litter size at birth (LSB), litter size at weaning (LSW), litter mean weight per lamb born (LMWLB), litter mean weight per lamb weaned (LMWLW), total litter weight at birth (TLWB), and total litter weight at weaning (TLWW). Test of significance to include fixed effects in the statistical model was performed using the general linear model procedure of SAS. The effects of lambing year and ewe age at lambing were significant (P<0.05). Genetic parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood procedure, under repeatability animal models. Direct heritability estimates were 0.02, 0.01, 0.47, 0.40, 0.15, and 0.03 for LSB, LSW, LMWLB, LMWLW, TLWB, and TLWW, respectively, and corresponding repeatabilities were 0.02, 0.01, 0.73, 0.41, 0.27, and 0.03. Genetic correlation estimates between traits ranged from -0.99 for LSW-LMWLW to 0.99 for LSB-TLWB, LSW-TLWB, and LSW-TLWW. Phenotypic correlations ranged from -0.71 for LSB-LMWLW to 0.98 for LSB-TLWW and environmental correlations ranged from -0.89 for LSB-LMWLW to 0.99 for LSB-TLWW. Results showed that the highest heritability estimates were for LMWLB and LMWLW suggesting that direct selection based on these traits could be effective. Also, strong positive genetic correlations of LMWLB and LMWLW with other traits may improve meat production efficiency in Shall sheep.

  1. Estimation of genetic parameters for reproductive traits in Shall sheep.

    PubMed

    Amou Posht-e-Masari, Hesam; Shadparvar, Abdol Ahad; Ghavi Hossein-Zadeh, Navid; Hadi Tavatori, Mohammad Hossein

    2013-06-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for reproductive traits in Shall sheep. Data included 1,316 records on reproductive performances of 395 Shall ewes from 41 sires and 136 dams which were collected from 2001 to 2007 in Shall breeding station in Qazvin province at the Northwest of Iran. Studied traits were litter size at birth (LSB), litter size at weaning (LSW), litter mean weight per lamb born (LMWLB), litter mean weight per lamb weaned (LMWLW), total litter weight at birth (TLWB), and total litter weight at weaning (TLWW). Test of significance to include fixed effects in the statistical model was performed using the general linear model procedure of SAS. The effects of lambing year and ewe age at lambing were significant (P<0.05). Genetic parameters were estimated using restricted maximum likelihood procedure, under repeatability animal models. Direct heritability estimates were 0.02, 0.01, 0.47, 0.40, 0.15, and 0.03 for LSB, LSW, LMWLB, LMWLW, TLWB, and TLWW, respectively, and corresponding repeatabilities were 0.02, 0.01, 0.73, 0.41, 0.27, and 0.03. Genetic correlation estimates between traits ranged from -0.99 for LSW-LMWLW to 0.99 for LSB-TLWB, LSW-TLWB, and LSW-TLWW. Phenotypic correlations ranged from -0.71 for LSB-LMWLW to 0.98 for LSB-TLWW and environmental correlations ranged from -0.89 for LSB-LMWLW to 0.99 for LSB-TLWW. Results showed that the highest heritability estimates were for LMWLB and LMWLW suggesting that direct selection based on these traits could be effective. Also, strong positive genetic correlations of LMWLB and LMWLW with other traits may improve meat production efficiency in Shall sheep. PMID:23334381

  2. Uncertainty Analysis and Parameter Estimation For Nearshore Hydrodynamic Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ardani, S.; Kaihatu, J. M.

    2012-12-01

    Numerical models represent deterministic approaches used for the relevant physical processes in the nearshore. Complexity of the physics of the model and uncertainty involved in the model inputs compel us to apply a stochastic approach to analyze the robustness of the model. The Bayesian inverse problem is one powerful way to estimate the important input model parameters (determined by apriori sensitivity analysis) and can be used for uncertainty analysis of the outputs. Bayesian techniques can be used to find the range of most probable parameters based on the probability of the observed data and the residual errors. In this study, the effect of input data involving lateral (Neumann) boundary conditions, bathymetry and off-shore wave conditions on nearshore numerical models are considered. Monte Carlo simulation is applied to a deterministic numerical model (the Delft3D modeling suite for coupled waves and flow) for the resulting uncertainty analysis of the outputs (wave height, flow velocity, mean sea level and etc.). Uncertainty analysis of outputs is performed by random sampling from the input probability distribution functions and running the model as required until convergence to the consistent results is achieved. The case study used in this analysis is the Duck94 experiment, which was conducted at the U.S. Army Field Research Facility at Duck, North Carolina, USA in the fall of 1994. The joint probability of model parameters relevant for the Duck94 experiments will be found using the Bayesian approach. We will further show that, by using Bayesian techniques to estimate the optimized model parameters as inputs and applying them for uncertainty analysis, we can obtain more consistent results than using the prior information for input data which means that the variation of the uncertain parameter will be decreased and the probability of the observed data will improve as well. Keywords: Monte Carlo Simulation, Delft3D, uncertainty analysis, Bayesian techniques

  3. Estimation of Eruption Source Parameters from Plume Growth Rate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pouget, Solene; Bursik, Marcus; Webley, Peter; Dehn, Jon; Pavalonis, Michael; Singh, Tarunraj; Singla, Puneet; Patra, Abani; Pitman, Bruce; Stefanescu, Ramona; Madankan, Reza; Morton, Donald; Jones, Matthew

    2013-04-01

    The eruption of Eyjafjallajokull, Iceland in April and May, 2010, brought to light the hazards of airborne volcanic ash and the importance of Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion models (VATD) to estimate the concentration of ash with time. These models require Eruption Source Parameters (ESP) as input, which typically include information about the plume height, the mass eruption rate, the duration of the eruption and the particle size distribution. However much of the time these ESP are unknown or poorly known a priori. We show that the mass eruption rate can be estimated from the downwind plume or umbrella cloud growth rate. A simple version of the continuity equation can be applied to the growth of either an umbrella cloud or the downwind plume. The continuity equation coupled with the momentum equation using only inertial and gravitational terms provides another model. Numerical modeling or scaling relationships can be used, as necessary, to provide values for unknown or unavailable parameters. Use of these models applied to data on plume geometry provided by satellite imagery allows for direct estimation of plume volumetric and mass growth with time. To test our methodology, we compared our results with five well-studied and well-characterized historical eruptions: Mount St. Helens, 1980; Pinatubo, 1991, Redoubt, 1990; Hekla, 2000 and Eyjafjallajokull, 2010. These tests show that the methodologies yield results comparable to or better than currently accepted methodologies of ESP estimation. We then applied the methodology to umbrella clouds produced by the eruptions of Okmok, 12 July 2008, and Sarychev Peak, 12 June 2009, and to the downwind plume produced by the eruptions of Hekla, 2000; Kliuchevsko'i, 1 October 1994; Kasatochi 7-8 August 2008 and Bezymianny, 1 September 2012. The new methods allow a fast, remote assessment of the mass eruption rate, even for remote volcanoes. They thus provide an additional path to estimation of the ESP and the forecasting

  4. Crop area estimation based on remotely-sensed data with an accurate but costly subsample

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gunst, R. F.

    1983-01-01

    Alternatives to sampling-theory stratified and regression estimators of crop production and timber biomass were examined. An alternative estimator which is viewed as especially promising is the errors-in-variable regression estimator. Investigations established the need for caution with this estimator when the ratio of two error variances is not precisely known.

  5. Accurate structure and dynamics of the metal-site of paramagnetic metalloproteins from NMR parameters using natural bond orbitals.

    PubMed

    Hansen, D Flemming; Westler, William M; Kunze, Micha B A; Markley, John L; Weinhold, Frank; Led, Jens J

    2012-03-14

    A natural bond orbital (NBO) analysis of unpaired electron spin density in metalloproteins is presented, which allows a fast and robust calculation of paramagnetic NMR parameters. Approximately 90% of the unpaired electron spin density occupies metal-ligand NBOs, allowing the majority of the density to be modeled by only a few NBOs that reflect the chemical bonding environment. We show that the paramagnetic relaxation rate of protons can be calculated accurately using only the metal-ligand NBOs and that these rates are in good agreement with corresponding rates measured experimentally. This holds, in particular, for protons of ligand residues where the point-dipole approximation breaks down. To describe the paramagnetic relaxation of heavy nuclei, also the electron spin density in the local orbitals must be taken into account. Geometric distance restraints for (15)N can be derived from the paramagnetic relaxation enhancement and the Fermi contact shift when local NBOs are included in the analysis. Thus, the NBO approach allows us to include experimental paramagnetic NMR parameters of (15)N nuclei as restraints in a structure optimization protocol. We performed a molecular dynamics simulation and structure determination of oxidized rubredoxin using the experimentally obtained paramagnetic NMR parameters of (15)N. The corresponding structures obtained are in good agreement with the crystal structure of rubredoxin. Thus, the NBO approach allows an accurate description of the geometric structure and the dynamics of metalloproteins, when NMR parameters are available of nuclei in the immediate vicinity of the metal-site.

  6. Accurate Structure and Dynamics of the Metal-Site of Paramagnetic Metalloproteins from NMR Parameters Using Natural Bond Orbitals

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    A natural bond orbital (NBO) analysis of unpaired electron spin density in metalloproteins is presented, which allows a fast and robust calculation of paramagnetic NMR parameters. Approximately 90% of the unpaired electron spin density occupies metal–ligand NBOs, allowing the majority of the density to be modeled by only a few NBOs that reflect the chemical bonding environment. We show that the paramagnetic relaxation rate of protons can be calculated accurately using only the metal–ligand NBOs and that these rates are in good agreement with corresponding rates measured experimentally. This holds, in particular, for protons of ligand residues where the point-dipole approximation breaks down. To describe the paramagnetic relaxation of heavy nuclei, also the electron spin density in the local orbitals must be taken into account. Geometric distance restraints for 15N can be derived from the paramagnetic relaxation enhancement and the Fermi contact shift when local NBOs are included in the analysis. Thus, the NBO approach allows us to include experimental paramagnetic NMR parameters of 15N nuclei as restraints in a structure optimization protocol. We performed a molecular dynamics simulation and structure determination of oxidized rubredoxin using the experimentally obtained paramagnetic NMR parameters of 15N. The corresponding structures obtained are in good agreement with the crystal structure of rubredoxin. Thus, the NBO approach allows an accurate description of the geometric structure and the dynamics of metalloproteins, when NMR parameters are available of nuclei in the immediate vicinity of the metal-site. PMID:22329704

  7. Accurate estimation of normal incidence absorption coefficients with confidence intervals using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vuye, Cedric; Vanlanduit, Steve; Guillaume, Patrick

    2009-06-01

    When using optical measurements of the sound fields inside a glass tube, near the material under test, to estimate the reflection and absorption coefficients, not only these acoustical parameters but also confidence intervals can be determined. The sound fields are visualized using a scanning laser Doppler vibrometer (SLDV). In this paper the influence of different test signals on the quality of the results, obtained with this technique, is examined. The amount of data gathered during one measurement scan makes a thorough statistical analysis possible leading to the knowledge of confidence intervals. The use of a multi-sine, constructed on the resonance frequencies of the test tube, shows to be a very good alternative for the traditional periodic chirp. This signal offers the ability to obtain data for multiple frequencies in one measurement, without the danger of a low signal-to-noise ratio. The variability analysis in this paper clearly shows the advantages of the proposed multi-sine compared to the periodic chirp. The measurement procedure and the statistical analysis are validated by measuring the reflection ratio at a closed end and comparing the results with the theoretical value. Results of the testing of two building materials (an acoustic ceiling tile and linoleum) are presented and compared to supplier data.

  8. Trapping phenomenon of the parameter estimation in asymptotic quantum states

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berrada, K.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we study in detail the behavior of the precision of the parameter estimation in open quantum systems using the quantum Fisher information (QFI). In particular, we study the sensitivity of the estimation on a two-qubit system evolving under Kossakowski-type quantum dynamical semigroups of completely positive maps. In such an environment, the precision of the estimation can even persist asymptotically for different effects of the initial parameters. We find that the QFI can be resistant to the action of the environment with respect to the initial asymptotic states, and it can persist even in the asymptotic long-time regime. In addition, our results provide further evidence that the initial pure and separable mixed states of the input state may enhance quantum metrology. These features make quantum states in this kind of environment a good candidate for the implementation of different schemes of quantum optics and information with high precision. Finally, we show that this quantity may be proposed to detect the amount of the total quantum information that the whole state contains with respect to projective measurements.

  9. Estimating Mass of Inflatable Aerodynamic Decelerators Using Dimensionless Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Samareh, Jamshid A.

    2011-01-01

    This paper describes a technique for estimating mass for inflatable aerodynamic decelerators. The technique uses dimensional analysis to identify a set of dimensionless parameters for inflation pressure, mass of inflation gas, and mass of flexible material. The dimensionless parameters enable scaling of an inflatable concept with geometry parameters (e.g., diameter), environmental conditions (e.g., dynamic pressure), inflation gas properties (e.g., molecular mass), and mass growth allowance. This technique is applicable for attached (e.g., tension cone, hypercone, and stacked toroid) and trailing inflatable aerodynamic decelerators. The technique uses simple engineering approximations that were developed by NASA in the 1960s and 1970s, as well as some recent important developments. The NASA Mars Entry and Descent Landing System Analysis (EDL-SA) project used this technique to estimate the masses of the inflatable concepts that were used in the analysis. The EDL-SA results compared well with two independent sets of high-fidelity finite element analyses.

  10. Exponential depression as a test of estimated decay parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Isenberg, Irvin; Small, Enoch W.

    1982-09-01

    A new test for judging the goodness of estimated decay parameters is presented. The test is based on the fact that a convolution is invariant under exponential depression. In the absence of significant error the estimated parameters will then remain constant as the degree of depression is varied over a finite range. In the presence of error, the parameters will vary. Up to now, no test has existed to see if moment index displacement corrects errors to a satisfactory extent in any given analysis. It has always been necessary to have some a priori knowledge of the type of error that limited the analysis. The test presented here removes that requirement. In addition, it is shown that the test performs better than a visual inspection of residual and autocorrelation plots in judging analyses when decays are closely spaced, even in the absence of nonrandom errors. The test is useful in accepting or rejecting analyses, with or without automatic error correction, in helping to discriminate between different models of sample decay, and in tuning pulse fluorometers for optimal performance. The test is, in principle, independent of the method of moments; it may be used with any method which needs only a small amount of computer time, and which is a statistically resistant procedure.

  11. A continuous wavelet transform approach for harmonic parameters estimation in the presence of impulsive noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dai, Yu; Xue, Yuan; Zhang, Jianxun

    2016-01-01

    Impulsive noise caused by some random events has the main character of short rise-time and wide frequency spectrum range, so it has the potential to degrade the performance and reliability of the harmonic estimation. This paper focuses on the harmonic estimation procedure based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) when the analyzed signal is corrupted by the impulsive noise. The digital CWT of both the time-varying sinusoidal signal and the impulsive noise are analyzed, and there are two cross ridges in the time-frequency plane of CWT, which are generated by the signal and the noise separately. In consideration of the amplitude of the noise and the number of the spike event, two inequalities are derived to provide limitations on the wavelet parameters. Based on the amplitude distribution of the noise, the optimal wavelet parameters determined by solving these inequalities are used to suppress the contamination of the noise, as well as increase the amplitude of the ridge corresponding to the signal, so the parameters of each harmonic component can be estimated accurately. The proposed procedure is applied to a numerical simulation and a bone vibration signal test giving satisfactory results of stationary and time-varying harmonic parameter estimation.

  12. GUIDANCE2: accurate detection of unreliable alignment regions accounting for the uncertainty of multiple parameters

    PubMed Central

    Sela, Itamar; Ashkenazy, Haim; Katoh, Kazutaka; Pupko, Tal

    2015-01-01

    Inference of multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) is a critical part of phylogenetic and comparative genomics studies. However, from the same set of sequences different MSAs are often inferred, depending on the methodologies used and the assumed parameters. Much effort has recently been devoted to improving the ability to identify unreliable alignment regions. Detecting such unreliable regions was previously shown to be important for downstream analyses relying on MSAs, such as the detection of positive selection. Here we developed GUIDANCE2, a new integrative methodology that accounts for: (i) uncertainty in the process of indel formation, (ii) uncertainty in the assumed guide tree and (iii) co-optimal solutions in the pairwise alignments, used as building blocks in progressive alignment algorithms. We compared GUIDANCE2 with seven methodologies to detect unreliable MSA regions using extensive simulations and empirical benchmarks. We show that GUIDANCE2 outperforms all previously developed methodologies. Furthermore, GUIDANCE2 also provides a set of alternative MSAs which can be useful for downstream analyses. The novel algorithm is implemented as a web-server, available at: http://guidance.tau.ac.il. PMID:25883146

  13. GUIDANCE2: accurate detection of unreliable alignment regions accounting for the uncertainty of multiple parameters.

    PubMed

    Sela, Itamar; Ashkenazy, Haim; Katoh, Kazutaka; Pupko, Tal

    2015-07-01

    Inference of multiple sequence alignments (MSAs) is a critical part of phylogenetic and comparative genomics studies. However, from the same set of sequences different MSAs are often inferred, depending on the methodologies used and the assumed parameters. Much effort has recently been devoted to improving the ability to identify unreliable alignment regions. Detecting such unreliable regions was previously shown to be important for downstream analyses relying on MSAs, such as the detection of positive selection. Here we developed GUIDANCE2, a new integrative methodology that accounts for: (i) uncertainty in the process of indel formation, (ii) uncertainty in the assumed guide tree and (iii) co-optimal solutions in the pairwise alignments, used as building blocks in progressive alignment algorithms. We compared GUIDANCE2 with seven methodologies to detect unreliable MSA regions using extensive simulations and empirical benchmarks. We show that GUIDANCE2 outperforms all previously developed methodologies. Furthermore, GUIDANCE2 also provides a set of alternative MSAs which can be useful for downstream analyses. The novel algorithm is implemented as a web-server, available at: http://guidance.tau.ac.il.

  14. Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation for the X-43A (Hyper-X) from Flight Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.; Derry, Stephen D.; Smith, Mark S.

    2005-01-01

    Aerodynamic parameters were estimated based on flight data from the third flight of the X-43A hypersonic research vehicle, also called Hyper-X. Maneuvers were flown using multiple orthogonal phase-optimized sweep inputs applied as simultaneous control surface perturbations at Mach 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, and 3 during the vehicle descent. Aerodynamic parameters, consisting of non-dimensional longitudinal and lateral stability and control derivatives, were estimated from flight data at each Mach number. Multi-step inputs at nearly the same flight conditions were also flown to assess the prediction capability of the identified models. Prediction errors were found to be comparable in magnitude to the modeling errors, which indicates accurate modeling. Aerodynamic parameter estimates were plotted as a function of Mach number, and compared with estimates from the pre-flight aerodynamic database, which was based on wind-tunnel tests and computational fluid dynamics. Agreement between flight estimates and values computed from the aerodynamic database was excellent overall.

  15. Estimating Model Parameters of Adaptive Software Systems in Real-Time

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kumar, Dinesh; Tantawi, Asser; Zhang, Li

    Adaptive software systems have the ability to adapt to changes in workload and execution environment. In order to perform resource management through model based control in such systems, an accurate mechanism for estimating the software system's model parameters is required. This paper deals with real-time estimation of a performance model for adaptive software systems that process multiple classes of transactional workload. First, insights in to the static performance model estimation problem are provided. Then an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) design is combined with an open queueing network model to dynamically estimate the model parameters in real-time. Specific problems that are encountered in the case of multiple classes of workload are analyzed. These problems arise mainly due to the under-deterministic nature of the estimation problem. This motivates us to propose a modified design of the filter. Insights for choosing tuning parameters of the modified design, i.e., number of constraints and sampling intervals are provided. The modified filter design is shown to effectively tackle problems with multiple classes of workload through experiments.

  16. Parameter Estimation Analysis for Hybrid Adaptive Fault Tolerant Control

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Eshak, Peter B.

    Research efforts have increased in recent years toward the development of intelligent fault tolerant control laws, which are capable of helping the pilot to safely maintain aircraft control at post failure conditions. Researchers at West Virginia University (WVU) have been actively involved in the development of fault tolerant adaptive control laws in all three major categories: direct, indirect, and hybrid. The first implemented design to provide adaptation was a direct adaptive controller, which used artificial neural networks to generate augmentation commands in order to reduce the modeling error. Indirect adaptive laws were implemented in another controller, which utilized online PID to estimate and update the controller parameter. Finally, a new controller design was introduced, which integrated both direct and indirect control laws. This controller is known as hybrid adaptive controller. This last control design outperformed the two earlier designs in terms of less NNs effort and better tracking quality. The performance of online PID has an important role in the quality of the hybrid controller; therefore, the quality of the estimation will be of a great importance. Unfortunately, PID is not perfect and the online estimation process has some inherited issues; the online PID estimates are primarily affected by delays and biases. In order to ensure updating reliable estimates to the controller, the estimator consumes some time to converge. Moreover, the estimator will often converge to a biased value. This thesis conducts a sensitivity analysis for the estimation issues, delay and bias, and their effect on the tracking quality. In addition, the performance of the hybrid controller as compared to direct adaptive controller is explored. In order to serve this purpose, a simulation environment in MATLAB/SIMULINK has been created. The simulation environment is customized to provide the user with the flexibility to add different combinations of biases and delays to

  17. Parameter estimation of labial movements in speech production: implications for speech motor control.

    PubMed

    Hinton, V A; Robey, R R

    1995-08-01

    Central to theories of speech motor control are estimates on magnitudes of lip activity expressed in terms of central tendency, variability, and interrelatedness. In fact, the tenability of each of two competing theories of motor control for speech production rests solely on the observation of the predicted direction of the correlation coefficient (one positive and one negative) that indexes the relationship of concurrent lip activity. Each theory, however, predicts a relationship that is the complete opposite of the relationship predicted by the other. That is, one theory proposes that the labial system functions on the basis of complementary variation, whereas the other assumes positive covariation, or complementary modulation. In apparent contradiction, each prediction has been observed under laboratory conditions. The explanation for this apparent contradiction resides in the small sample sizes upon which each estimate was based. The minimum number of observations that are necessary to achieve accurate estimates of lip displacement parameters has remained unclear. This paper addresses three fundamental questions: (a) how many observations of on-task behavior are necessary to accurately estimate mean and variance values for the magnitude of upper lip displacement in a speech production experiment?, (b) what is the analogous number of observations for estimating the same values of lower lip displacement (together with the mandible) in the same context?, and (c) how many observations are necessary to accurately estimate the correlation coefficient indexing the relationship of lip displacements during the production of speech? Answers to these questions are accomplished through a review of estimator properties, a Monte Carlo computer simulation, and through laboratory observations.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

  18. Accurate Analytical and Statistical Approaches to Reduce O-C Discrepancies in the Precessional Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Martínez, M. J.; Marco, F. J.; López, J. A.

    2009-02-01

    The Hipparcos catalog provides a reference frame at optical wavelengths for the new International Celestial Reference System (ICRS). This new reference system was adopted following the resolution agreed at the 23rd IAU General Assembly held in Kyoto in 1997. Differences in the Hipparcos system of proper motions and the previous materialization of the reference frame, the FK5, are expected to be caused only by the combined effects of the motion of the equinox of the FK5 and the precession of the equator and the ecliptic. Several authors have pointed out an inconsistency between the differences in proper motion of the Hipparcos-FK5 and the correction of the precessional values derived from VLBI and lunar laser ranging (LLR) observations. Most of them have claimed that these discrepancies are due to slightly biased proper motions in the FK5 catalog. The different mathematical models that have been employed to explain these errors have not fully accounted for the discrepancies in the correction of the precessional parameters. Our goal here is to offer an explanation for this fact. We propose the use of independent parametric and nonparametric models. The introduction of a nonparametric model, combined with the inner product in the square integrable functions over the unitary sphere, would give us values which do not depend on the possible interdependencies existing in the data set. The evidence shows that zonal studies are needed. This would lead us to introduce a local nonparametric model. All these models will provide independent corrections to the precessional values, which could then be compared in order to study the reliability in each case. Finally, we obtain values for the precession corrections that are very consistent with those that are currently adopted.

  19. Estimation of Aircraft Nonlinear Unsteady Parameters From Wind Tunnel Data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klein, Vladislav; Murphy, Patrick C.

    1998-01-01

    Aerodynamic equations were formulated for an aircraft in one-degree-of-freedom large amplitude motion about each of its body axes. The model formulation based on indicial functions separated the resulting aerodynamic forces and moments into static terms, purely rotary terms and unsteady terms. Model identification from experimental data combined stepwise regression and maximum likelihood estimation in a two-stage optimization algorithm that can identify the unsteady term and rotary term if necessary. The identification scheme was applied to oscillatory data in two examples. The model identified from experimental data fit the data well, however, some parameters were estimated with limited accuracy. The resulting model was a good predictor for oscillatory and ramp input data.

  20. Area-to-point parameter estimation with geographically weighted regression

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Murakami, Daisuke; Tsutsumi, Morito

    2015-07-01

    The modifiable areal unit problem (MAUP) is a problem by which aggregated units of data influence the results of spatial data analysis. Standard GWR, which ignores aggregation mechanisms, cannot be considered to serve as an efficient countermeasure of MAUP. Accordingly, this study proposes a type of GWR with aggregation mechanisms, termed area-to-point (ATP) GWR herein. ATP GWR, which is closely related to geostatistical approaches, estimates the disaggregate-level local trend parameters by using aggregated variables. We examine the effectiveness of ATP GWR for mitigating MAUP through a simulation study and an empirical study. The simulation study indicates that the method proposed herein is robust to the MAUP when the spatial scales of aggregation are not too global compared with the scale of the underlying spatial variations. The empirical studies demonstrate that the method provides intuitively consistent estimates.

  1. [Research on maize multispectral image accurate segmentation and chlorophyll index estimation].

    PubMed

    Wu, Qian; Sun, Hong; Li, Min-zan; Song, Yuan-yuan; Zhang, Yan-e

    2015-01-01

    In order to rapidly acquire maize growing information in the field, a non-destructive method of maize chlorophyll content index measurement was conducted based on multi-spectral imaging technique and imaging processing technology. The experiment was conducted at Yangling in Shaanxi province of China and the crop was Zheng-dan 958 planted in about 1 000 m X 600 m experiment field. Firstly, a 2-CCD multi-spectral image monitoring system was available to acquire the canopy images. The system was based on a dichroic prism, allowing precise separation of the visible (Blue (B), Green (G), Red (R): 400-700 nm) and near-infrared (NIR, 760-1 000 nm) band. The multispectral images were output as RGB and NIR images via the system vertically fixed to the ground with vertical distance of 2 m and angular field of 50°. SPAD index of each sample was'measured synchronously to show the chlorophyll content index. Secondly, after the image smoothing using adaptive smooth filtering algorithm, the NIR maize image was selected to segment the maize leaves from background, because there was a big difference showed in gray histogram between plant and soil background. The NIR image segmentation algorithm was conducted following steps of preliminary and accuracy segmentation: (1) The results of OTSU image segmentation method and the variable threshold algorithm were discussed. It was revealed that the latter was better one in corn plant and weed segmentation. As a result, the variable threshold algorithm based on local statistics was selected for the preliminary image segmentation. The expansion and corrosion were used to optimize the segmented image. (2) The region labeling algorithm was used to segment corn plants from soil and weed background with an accuracy of 95. 59 %. And then, the multi-spectral image of maize canopy was accurately segmented in R, G and B band separately. Thirdly, the image parameters were abstracted based on the segmented visible and NIR images. The average gray

  2. Earth-moon system: Dynamics and parameter estimation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Breedlove, W. J., Jr.

    1975-01-01

    A theoretical development of the equations of motion governing the earth-moon system is presented. The earth and moon were treated as finite rigid bodies and a mutual potential was utilized. The sun and remaining planets were treated as particles. Relativistic, non-rigid, and dissipative effects were not included. The translational and rotational motion of the earth and moon were derived in a fully coupled set of equations. Euler parameters were used to model the rotational motions. The mathematical model is intended for use with data analysis software to estimate physical parameters of the earth-moon system using primarily LURE type data. Two program listings are included. Program ANEAMO computes the translational/rotational motion of the earth and moon from analytical solutions. Program RIGEM numerically integrates the fully coupled motions as described above.

  3. Error estimates and specification parameters for functional renormalization

    SciTech Connect

    Schnoerr, David; Boettcher, Igor; Pawlowski, Jan M.; Wetterich, Christof

    2013-07-15

    We present a strategy for estimating the error of truncated functional flow equations. While the basic functional renormalization group equation is exact, approximated solutions by means of truncations do not only depend on the choice of the retained information, but also on the precise definition of the truncation. Therefore, results depend on specification parameters that can be used to quantify the error of a given truncation. We demonstrate this for the BCS–BEC crossover in ultracold atoms. Within a simple truncation the precise definition of the frequency dependence of the truncated propagator affects the results, indicating a shortcoming of the choice of a frequency independent cutoff function.

  4. Estimation of Modal Parameters Using a Wavelet-Based Approach

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lind, Rick; Brenner, Marty; Haley, Sidney M.

    1997-01-01

    Modal stability parameters are extracted directly from aeroservoelastic flight test data by decomposition of accelerometer response signals into time-frequency atoms. Logarithmic sweeps and sinusoidal pulses are used to generate DAST closed loop excitation data. Novel wavelets constructed to extract modal damping and frequency explicitly from the data are introduced. The so-called Haley and Laplace wavelets are used to track time-varying modal damping and frequency in a matching pursuit algorithm. Estimation of the trend to aeroservoelastic instability is demonstrated successfully from analysis of the DAST data.

  5. Enhancing the Precision of Parameter Estimation in Band Gap

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, J.; Zhan, Q.; Liu, Z. K.

    2016-09-01

    Recently, the dynamics of quantum Fisher information(QFI) in various environment are investigated and many kinds of schemes to overcome the drawback of decoherence are designed. Here we propose the pseudomode method to enhance the phase parameter precision of optimal quantum estimation of a qubit coupled to a non-Markovian structured environment. We find that the QFI can be enhanced in the weak-coupling regime with non-perfect band gap and can be trapped permanently with a large value in the perfect band gap. The effects of qubit-pseudomode detuning and the spectrum of reservoir are discussed, a reasonable physical explanation is given, too.

  6. Confidence Region Estimation for Groundwater Parameter Identification Problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vugrin, K. W.; Swiler, L. P.; Roberts, R. M.

    2007-12-01

    This presentation focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F--test method, and a Log--Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well--test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Each of the three methods produce similar and reasonable confidence regions for the case study using synthetic data. The linear approximation method grossly overestimates the confidence region for the first groundwater parameter identification case study. The F--test and Log--Likelihood methods result in similar reasonable regions for this test case. For the second groundwater parameter identification case study, the linear approximation method produces a confidence region of reasonable size. In this test case, the F--test and Log--Likelihood methods generate disjoint confidence regions of reasonable size. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed. Sandia is a multi program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04- 94AL85000. This research is funded by WIPP programs administered by the Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the U.S Department of Energy.

  7. Wind effect on PV module temperature: Analysis of different techniques for an accurate estimation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schwingshackl, Clemens; Petitta, Marcello; Ernst Wagner, Jochen; Belluardo, Giorgio; Moser, David; Castelli, Mariapina; Zebisch, Marc; Tetzlaff, Anke

    2013-04-01

    temperature estimation using meteorological parameters. References: [1] Skoplaki, E. et al., 2008: A simple correlation for the operating temperature of photovoltaic modules of arbitrary mounting, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells 92, 1393-1402 [2] Skoplaki, E. et al., 2008: Operating temperature of photovoltaic modules: A survey of pertinent correlations, Renewable Energy 34, 23-29 [3] Koehl, M. et al., 2011: Modeling of the nominal operating cell temperature based on outdoor weathering, Solar Energy Materials & Solar Cells 95, 1638-1646 [4] Mattei, M. et al., 2005: Calculation of the polycrystalline PV module temperature using a simple method of energy balance, Renewable Energy 31, 553-567 [5] Kurtz, S. et al.: Evaluation of high-temperature exposure of rack-mounted photovoltaic modules

  8. A Modified Rodrigues Parameter-based Nonlinear Observer Design for Spacecraft Gyroscope Parameters Estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yong, Kilyuk; Jo, Sujang; Bang, Hyochoong

    This paper presents a modified Rodrigues parameter (MRP)-based nonlinear observer design to estimate bias, scale factor and misalignment of gyroscope measurements. A Lyapunov stability analysis is carried out for the nonlinear observer. Simulation is performed and results are presented illustrating the performance of the proposed nonlinear observer under the condition of persistent excitation maneuver. In addition, a comparison between the nonlinear observer and alignment Kalman filter (AKF) is made to highlight favorable features of the nonlinear observer.

  9. Estimating quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations: a comparison of pedigree and genomic approaches

    PubMed Central

    Bérénos, Camillo; Ellis, Philip A; Pilkington, Jill G; Pemberton, Josephine M

    2014-01-01

    The estimation of quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations is generally limited by the accuracy and completeness of the available pedigree information. Using relatedness at genomewide markers can potentially remove this limitation and lead to less biased and more precise estimates. We estimated heritability, maternal genetic effects and genetic correlations for body size traits in an unmanaged long-term study population of Soay sheep on St Kilda using three increasingly complete and accurate estimates of relatedness: (i) Pedigree 1, using observation-derived maternal links and microsatellite-derived paternal links; (ii) Pedigree 2, using SNP-derived assignment of both maternity and paternity; and (iii) whole-genome relatedness at 37 037 autosomal SNPs. In initial analyses, heritability estimates were strikingly similar for all three methods, while standard errors were systematically lower in analyses based on Pedigree 2 and genomic relatedness. Genetic correlations were generally strong, differed little between the three estimates of relatedness and the standard errors declined only very slightly with improved relatedness information. When partitioning maternal effects into separate genetic and environmental components, maternal genetic effects found in juvenile traits increased substantially across the three relatedness estimates. Heritability declined compared to parallel models where only a maternal environment effect was fitted, suggesting that maternal genetic effects are confounded with direct genetic effects and that more accurate estimates of relatedness were better able to separate maternal genetic effects from direct genetic effects. We found that the heritability captured by SNP markers asymptoted at about half the SNPs available, suggesting that denser marker panels are not necessarily required for precise and unbiased heritability estimates. Finally, we present guidelines for the use of genomic relatedness in future quantitative genetics

  10. Estimating canopy fuel parameters for Atlantic Coastal Plain forest types.

    SciTech Connect

    Parresol, Bernard, R.

    2007-01-15

    Abstract It is necessary to quantify forest canopy characteristics to assess crown fire hazard, prioritize treatment areas, and design treatments to reduce crown fire potential. A number of fire behavior models such as FARSITE, FIRETEC, and NEXUS require as input four particular canopy fuel parameters: 1) canopy cover, 2) stand height, 3) crown base height, and 4) canopy bulk density. These canopy characteristics must be mapped across the landscape at high spatial resolution to accurately simulate crown fire. Currently no models exist to forecast these four canopy parameters for forests of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, a region that supports millions of acres of loblolly, longleaf, and slash pine forests as well as pine-broadleaf forests and mixed species broadleaf forests. Many forest cover types are recognized, too many to efficiently model. For expediency, forests of the Savannah River Site are categorized as belonging to 1 of 7 broad forest type groups, based on composition: 1) loblolly pine, 2) longleaf pine, 3) slash pine, 4) pine-hardwood, 5) hardwood-pine, 6) hardwoods, and 7) cypress-tupelo. These 7 broad forest types typify forests of the Atlantic Coastal Plain region, from Maryland to Florida.

  11. Genetic Parameter Estimation in Seedstock Swine Population for Growth Performances

    PubMed Central

    Choi, Jae Gwan; Cho, Chung Il; Choi, Im Soo; Lee, Seung Soo; Choi, Tae Jeong; Cho, Kwang Hyun; Park, Byoung Ho; Choy, Yun Ho

    2013-01-01

    The objective of this study was to estimate genetic parameters that are to be used for across-herd genetic evaluations of seed stock pigs at GGP level. Performance data with pedigree information collected from swine breeder farms in Korea were provided by Korea Animal Improvement Association (AIAK). Performance data were composed of final body weights at test days and ultrasound measures of back fat thickness (BF), rib eye area (EMA) and retail cut percentage (RCP). Breeds of swine tested were Landrace, Yorkshire and Duroc. Days to 90 kg body weight (DAYS90) were estimated with linear function of age and ADG calculated from body weights at test days. Ultrasound measures were taken with A-mode ultrasound scanners by trained technicians. Number of performance records after censoring outliers and keeping records pigs only born from year 2000 were of 78,068 Duroc pigs, 101,821 Landrace pigs and 281,421 Yorkshire pigs. Models included contemporary groups defined by the same herd and the same seasons of births of the same year, which was regarded as fixed along with the effect of sex for all traits and body weight at test day as a linear covariate for ultrasound measures. REML estimation was processed with REMLF90 program. Heritability estimates were 0.40, 0.32, 0.21 0.39 for DAYS90, ADG, BF, EMA, RCP, respectively for Duroc population. Respective heritability estimates for Landrace population were 0.43, 0.41, 0.22, and 0.43 and for Yorkshire population were 0.36, 0.38, 0.22, and 0.42. Genetic correlation coefficients of DAYS90 with BF, EMA, or RCP were estimated to be 0.00 to 0.09, −0.15 to −0.25, 0.22 to 0.28, respectively for three breeds populations. Genetic correlation coefficients estimated between BF and EMA was −0.33 to −0.39. Genetic correlation coefficient estimated between BF and RCP was high and negative (−0.78 to −0.85) but the environmental correlation coefficients between these two traits was medium and negative (near −0.35), which describes

  12. Accounting for environmental variability, modeling errors, and parameter estimation uncertainties in structural identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behmanesh, Iman; Moaveni, Babak

    2016-07-01

    This paper presents a Hierarchical Bayesian model updating framework to account for the effects of ambient temperature and excitation amplitude. The proposed approach is applied for model calibration, response prediction and damage identification of a footbridge under changing environmental/ambient conditions. The concrete Young's modulus of the footbridge deck is the considered updating structural parameter with its mean and variance modeled as functions of temperature and excitation amplitude. The identified modal parameters over 27 months of continuous monitoring of the footbridge are used to calibrate the updating parameters. One of the objectives of this study is to show that by increasing the levels of information in the updating process, the posterior variation of the updating structural parameter (concrete Young's modulus) is reduced. To this end, the calibration is performed at three information levels using (1) the identified modal parameters, (2) modal parameters and ambient temperatures, and (3) modal parameters, ambient temperatures, and excitation amplitudes. The calibrated model is then validated by comparing the model-predicted natural frequencies and those identified from measured data after deliberate change to the structural mass. It is shown that accounting for modeling error uncertainties is crucial for reliable response prediction, and accounting only the estimated variability of the updating structural parameter is not sufficient for accurate response predictions. Finally, the calibrated model is used for damage identification of the footbridge.

  13. Parameter estimation in space systems using recurrent neural networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parlos, Alexander G.; Atiya, Amir F.; Sunkel, John W.

    1991-01-01

    The identification of time-varying parameters encountered in space systems is addressed, using artificial neural systems. A hybrid feedforward/feedback neural network, namely a recurrent multilayer perception, is used as the model structure in the nonlinear system identification. The feedforward portion of the network architecture provides its well-known interpolation property, while through recurrency and cross-talk, the local information feedback enables representation of temporal variations in the system nonlinearities. The standard back-propagation-learning algorithm is modified and it is used for both the off-line and on-line supervised training of the proposed hybrid network. The performance of recurrent multilayer perceptron networks in identifying parameters of nonlinear dynamic systems is investigated by estimating the mass properties of a representative large spacecraft. The changes in the spacecraft inertia are predicted using a trained neural network, during two configurations corresponding to the early and late stages of the spacecraft on-orbit assembly sequence. The proposed on-line mass properties estimation capability offers encouraging results, though, further research is warranted for training and testing the predictive capabilities of these networks beyond nominal spacecraft operations.

  14. Parameter estimation of neuron models using in-vitro and in-vivo electrophysiological data

    PubMed Central

    Lynch, Eoin P.; Houghton, Conor J.

    2015-01-01

    Spiking neuron models can accurately predict the response of neurons to somatically injected currents if the model parameters are carefully tuned. Predicting the response of in-vivo neurons responding to natural stimuli presents a far more challenging modeling problem. In this study, an algorithm is presented for parameter estimation of spiking neuron models. The algorithm is a hybrid evolutionary algorithm which uses a spike train metric as a fitness function. We apply this to parameter discovery in modeling two experimental data sets with spiking neurons; in-vitro current injection responses from a regular spiking pyramidal neuron are modeled using spiking neurons and in-vivo extracellular auditory data is modeled using a two stage model consisting of a stimulus filter and spiking neuron model. PMID:25941485

  15. Parameter estimation and uncertainty for gravitational waves from binary black holes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Berry, Christopher; LIGO Scientific Collaboration; Virgo Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    Binary black holes are one of the most promising sources of gravitational waves that could be observed by Advanced LIGO. To accurately infer the parameters of an astrophysical signal, it is necessary to have a reliable model of the gravitational waveform. Uncertainty in the waveform leads to uncertainty in the measured parameters. For loud signals, this theoretical uncertainty could dominate statistical uncertainty, to be the primary source of error in gravitational-wave astronomy. However, we expect the first candidate events will be closer to the detection threshold. We look at how parameter estimation would be influenced by the use of different waveform models for a binary black-hole signal near detection threshold, and how this can be folded in to a Bayesian analysis.

  16. Estimation of genetic parameters for reproductive traits in alpacas.

    PubMed

    Cruz, A; Cervantes, I; Burgos, A; Morante, R; Gutiérrez, J P

    2015-12-01

    One of the main deficiencies affecting animal breeding programs in Peruvian alpacas is the low reproductive performance leading to low number of animals available to select from, decreasing strongly the selection intensity. Some reproductive traits could be improved by artificial selection, but very few information about genetic parameters exists for these traits in this specie. The aim of this study was to estimate genetic parameters for six reproductive traits in alpacas both in Suri (SU) and Huacaya (HU) ecotypes, as well as their genetic relationship with fiber and morphological traits. Dataset belonging to Pacomarca experimental farm collected between 2000 and 2014 was used. Number of records for age at first service (AFS), age at first calving (AFC), copulation time (CT), pregnancy diagnosis (PD), gestation length (GL), and calving interval (CI) were, respectively, 1704, 854, 19,770, 5874, 4290 and 934. Pedigree consisted of 7742 animals. Regarding reproductive traits, model of analysis included additive and residual random effects for all traits, and also permanent environmental effect for CT, PD, GL and CI traits, with color and year of recording as fixed effects for all the reproductive traits and also age at mating and sex of calf for GL trait. Estimated heritabilities, respectively for HU and SU were 0.19 and 0.09 for AFS, 0.45 and 0.59 for AFC, 0.04 and 0.05 for CT, 0.07 and 0.05 for PD, 0.12 and 0.20 for GL, and 0.14 and 0.09 for CI. Genetic correlations between them ranged from -0.96 to 0.70. No important genetic correlations were found between reproductive traits and fiber or morphological traits in HU. However, some moderate favorable genetic correlations were found between reproductive and either fiber and morphological traits in SU. According to estimated genetic correlations, some reproductive traits might be included as additional selection criteria in HU. PMID:26490188

  17. Surrogate models of precessing numerical relativity gravitational waveforms for use in parameter estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott; Galley, Chad; Hemberger, Daniel; Scheel, Mark; Schmidt, Patricia; Smith, Rory; SXS Collaboration Collaboration

    2016-03-01

    We are now in the advanced detector era of gravitational wave astronomy, and the merger of two black holes (BHs) is one of the most promising sources of gravitational waves that could be detected on earth. To infer the BH masses and spins, the observed signal must be compared to waveforms predicted by general relativity for millions of binary configurations. Numerical relativity (NR) simulations can produce accurate waveforms, but are prohibitively expensive to use for parameter estimation. Other waveform models are fast enough but may lack accuracy in portions of the parameter space. Numerical relativity surrogate models attempt to rapidly predict the results of a NR code with a small or negligible modeling error, after being trained on a set of input waveforms. Such surrogate models are ideal for parameter estimation, as they are both fast and accurate, and have already been built for the case of non-spinning BHs. Using 250 input waveforms, we build a surrogate model for waveforms from the Spectral Einstein Code (SpEC) for a subspace of precessing systems.

  18. On-line estimation of concentration parameters in fermentation processes.

    PubMed

    Xiong, Zhi-hua; Huang, Guo-hong; Shao, Hui-he

    2005-06-01

    It has long been thought that bioprocess, with their inherent measurement difficulties and complex dynamics, posed almost insurmountable problems to engineers. A novel software sensor is proposed to make more effective use of those measurements that are already available, which enable improvement in fermentation process control. The proposed method is based on mixtures of Gaussian processes (GP) with expectation maximization (EM) algorithm employed for parameter estimation of mixture of models. The mixture model can alleviate computational complexity of GP and also accord with changes of operating condition in fermentation processes, i.e., it would certainly be able to examine what types of process-knowledge would be most relevant for local models' specific operating points of the process and then combine them into a global one. Demonstrated by on-line estimate of yeast concentration in fermentation industry as an example, it is shown that soft sensor based state estimation is a powerful technique for both enhancing automatic control performance of biological systems and implementing on-line monitoring and optimization.

  19. Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aslanyan, Grigor; Easther, Richard; Price, Layne C.

    2015-09-01

    Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

  20. Real-Time Aerodynamic Parameter Estimation without Air Flow Angle Measurements

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Morelli, Eugene A.

    2010-01-01

    A technique for estimating aerodynamic parameters in real time from flight data without air flow angle measurements is described and demonstrated. The method is applied to simulated F-16 data, and to flight data from a subscale jet transport aircraft. Modeling results obtained with the new approach using flight data without air flow angle measurements were compared to modeling results computed conventionally using flight data that included air flow angle measurements. Comparisons demonstrated that the new technique can provide accurate aerodynamic modeling results without air flow angle measurements, which are often difficult and expensive to obtain. Implications for efficient flight testing and flight safety are discussed.

  1. A Fortran IV Program for Estimating Parameters through Multiple Matrix Sampling with Standard Errors of Estimate Approximated by the Jackknife.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shoemaker, David M.

    Described and listed herein with concomitant sample input and output is the Fortran IV program which estimates parameters and standard errors of estimate per parameters for parameters estimated through multiple matrix sampling. The specific program is an improved and expanded version of an earlier version. (Author/BJG)

  2. Nonlinear RANSAC Optimization for Parameter Estimation with Applications to Phagocyte Transmigration.

    PubMed

    Kang, Mingon; Gao, Jean; Tang, Liping

    2011-01-01

    Developing vigorous mathematical equations and estimating accurate parameters within feasible computational time are two indispensable parts to build reliable system models for representing biological properties of the system and for producing reliable simulation. For a complex biological system with limited observations, one of the daunting tasks is the large number of unknown parameters in the mathematical modeling whose values directly determine the performance of computational modeling. To tackle this problem, we have developed a data-driven global optimization method, nonlinear RANSAC, based on RANdom SAmple Consensus (a.k.a. RANSAC) method for parameter estimation of nonlinear system models. Conventional RANSAC method is sound and simple, but it is oriented for linear system models. We not only adopt the strengths of RANSAC, but also extend the method to nonlinear systems with outstanding performance. As a specific application example, we have targeted understanding phagocyte transmigration which is involved in the fibrosis process for biomedical device implantation. With well-defined mathematical nonlinear equations of the system, nonlinear RANSAC is performed for the parameter estimation. In order to evaluate the general performance of the method, we also applied the method to signalling pathways with ordinary differential equations as a general format. PMID:23227455

  3. An Improved Swarm Optimization for Parameter Estimation and Biological Model Selection

    PubMed Central

    Abdullah, Afnizanfaizal; Deris, Safaai; Mohamad, Mohd Saberi; Anwar, Sohail

    2013-01-01

    One of the key aspects of computational systems biology is the investigation on the dynamic biological processes within cells. Computational models are often required to elucidate the mechanisms and principles driving the processes because of the nonlinearity and complexity. The models usually incorporate a set of parameters that signify the physical properties of the actual biological systems. In most cases, these parameters are estimated by fitting the model outputs with the corresponding experimental data. However, this is a challenging task because the available experimental data are frequently noisy and incomplete. In this paper, a new hybrid optimization method is proposed to estimate these parameters from the noisy and incomplete experimental data. The proposed method, called Swarm-based Chemical Reaction Optimization, integrates the evolutionary searching strategy employed by the Chemical Reaction Optimization, into the neighbouring searching strategy of the Firefly Algorithm method. The effectiveness of the method was evaluated using a simulated nonlinear model and two biological models: synthetic transcriptional oscillators, and extracellular protease production models. The results showed that the accuracy and computational speed of the proposed method were better than the existing Differential Evolution, Firefly Algorithm and Chemical Reaction Optimization methods. The reliability of the estimated parameters was statistically validated, which suggests that the model outputs produced by these parameters were valid even when noisy and incomplete experimental data were used. Additionally, Akaike Information Criterion was employed to evaluate the model selection, which highlighted the capability of the proposed method in choosing a plausible model based on the experimental data. In conclusion, this paper presents the effectiveness of the proposed method for parameter estimation and model selection problems using noisy and incomplete experimental data. This

  4. US-based Drug Cost Parameter Estimation for Economic Evaluations

    PubMed Central

    Levy, Joseph F; Meek, Patrick D; Rosenberg, Marjorie A

    2014-01-01

    Introduction In the US, more than 10% of national health expenditures are for prescription drugs. Assessing drug costs in US economic evaluation studies is not consistent, as the true acquisition cost of a drug is not known by decision modelers. Current US practice focuses on identifying one reasonable drug cost and imposing some distributional assumption to assess uncertainty. Methods We propose a set of Rules based on current pharmacy practice that account for the heterogeneity of drug product costs. The set of products derived from our Rules, and their associated costs, form an empirical distribution that can be used for more realistic sensitivity analyses, and create transparency in drug cost parameter computation. The Rules specify an algorithmic process to select clinically equivalent drug products that reduce pill burden, use an appropriate package size, and assume uniform weighting of substitutable products. Three diverse examples show derived empirical distributions and are compared with previously reported cost estimates. Results The shapes of the empirical distributions among the three drugs differ dramatically, including multiple modes and different variation. Previously published estimates differed from the means of the empirical distributions. Published ranges for sensitivity analyses did not cover the ranges of the empirical distributions. In one example using lisinopril, the empirical mean cost of substitutable products was $444 (range $23–$953) as compared to a published estimate of $305 (range $51–$523). Conclusions Our Rules create a simple and transparent approach to create cost estimates of drug products and assess their variability. The approach is easily modified to include a subset of, or different weighting for, substitutable products. The derived empirical distribution is easily incorporated into one-way or probabilistic sensitivity analyses. PMID:25532826

  5. Excitations for Rapidly Estimating Flight-Control Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Moes, Tim; Smith, Mark; Morelli, Gene

    2006-01-01

    A flight test on an F-15 airplane was performed to evaluate the utility of prescribed simultaneous independent surface excitations (PreSISE) for real-time estimation of flight-control parameters, including stability and control derivatives. The ability to extract these derivatives in nearly real time is needed to support flight demonstration of intelligent flight-control system (IFCS) concepts under development at NASA, in academia, and in industry. Traditionally, flight maneuvers have been designed and executed to obtain estimates of stability and control derivatives by use of a post-flight analysis technique. For an IFCS, it is required to be able to modify control laws in real time for an aircraft that has been damaged in flight (because of combat, weather, or a system failure). The flight test included PreSISE maneuvers, during which all desired control surfaces are excited simultaneously, but at different frequencies, resulting in aircraft motions about all coordinate axes. The objectives of the test were to obtain data for post-flight analysis and to perform the analysis to determine: 1) The accuracy of derivatives estimated by use of PreSISE, 2) The required durations of PreSISE inputs, and 3) The minimum required magnitudes of PreSISE inputs. The PreSISE inputs in the flight test consisted of stacked sine-wave excitations at various frequencies, including symmetric and differential excitations of canard and stabilator control surfaces and excitations of aileron and rudder control surfaces of a highly modified F-15 airplane. Small, medium, and large excitations were tested in 15-second maneuvers at subsonic, transonic, and supersonic speeds. Typical excitations are shown in Figure 1. Flight-test data were analyzed by use of pEst, which is an industry-standard output-error technique developed by Dryden Flight Research Center. Data were also analyzed by use of Fourier-transform regression (FTR), which was developed for onboard, real-time estimation of the

  6. Estimating the gas transfer velocity: a prerequisite for more accurate and higher resolution GHG fluxes (lower Aare River, Switzerland)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sollberger, S.; Perez, K.; Schubert, C. J.; Eugster, W.; Wehrli, B.; Del Sontro, T.

    2013-12-01

    Currently, carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) emissions from lakes, reservoirs and rivers are readily investigated due to the global warming potential of those gases and the role these inland waters play in the carbon cycle. However, there is a lack of high spatiotemporally-resolved emission estimates, and how to accurately assess the gas transfer velocity (K) remains controversial. In anthropogenically-impacted systems where run-of-river reservoirs disrupt the flow of sediments by increasing the erosion and load accumulation patterns, the resulting production of carbonic greenhouse gases (GH-C) is likely to be enhanced. The GH-C flux is thus counteracting the terrestrial carbon sink in these environments that act as net carbon emitters. The aim of this project was to determine the GH-C emissions from a medium-sized river heavily impacted by several impoundments and channelization through a densely-populated region of Switzerland. Estimating gas emission from rivers is not trivial and recently several models have been put forth to do so; therefore a second goal of this project was to compare the river emission models available with direct measurements. Finally, we further validated the modeled fluxes by using a combined approach with water sampling, chamber measurements, and highly temporal GH-C monitoring using an equilibrator. We conducted monthly surveys along the 120 km of the lower Aare River where we sampled for dissolved CH4 (';manual' sampling) at a 5-km sampling resolution, and measured gas emissions directly with chambers over a 35 km section. We calculated fluxes (F) via the boundary layer equation (F=K×(Cw-Ceq)) that uses the water-air GH-C concentration (C) gradient (Cw-Ceq) and K, which is the most sensitive parameter. K was estimated using 11 different models found in the literature with varying dependencies on: river hydrology (n=7), wind (2), heat exchange (1), and river width (1). We found that chamber fluxes were always higher than boundary

  7. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed.

  8. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. PMID:26121186

  9. Estimation of distributional parameters for censored trace level water quality data. 1. Estimation techniques

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gilliom, R.J.; Helsel, D.R.

    1986-01-01

    A recurring difficulty encountered in investigations of many metals and organic contaminants in ambient waters is that a substantial portion of water sample concentrations are below limits of detection established by analytical laboratories. Several methods were evaluated for estimating distributional parameters for such censored data sets using only uncensored observations. Their reliabilities were evaluated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which small samples were generated from a wide range of parent distributions and censored at varying levels. Eight methods were used to estimate the mean, standard deviation, median, and interquartile range. Criteria were developed, based on the distribution of uncensored observations, for determining the best performing parameter estimation method for any particular data set. The most robust method for minimizing error in censored-sample estimates of the four distributional parameters over all simulation conditions was the log-probability regression method. With this method, censored observations are assumed to follow the zero-to-censoring level portion of a lognormal distribution obtained by a least squares regression between logarithms of uncensored concentration observations and their z scores.

  10. Integrating Soft Data into Hydrologic Modeling to Improve Post-fire Parameter Estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jung, H. Y.; Hogue, T. S.

    2008-12-01

    A significant problem with post-fire streamflow prediction is the limited availability of data for parameter estimation and for independent validation of model performance. The goal of the current study is to evaluate a range of optimization techniques which allow integration of alternative soft-data data into a hydrologic modeling and prediction framework and improve post-fire simulations. This project utilizes the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (SAC-SMA), the National Weather Service operational conceptual rainfall- runoff model and incorporates both discharge and geochemical data to estimate model parameters. The analysis is undertaken in a watershed which has undergone an extensive land cover change (fire) and for which both pre- and post-fire geochemical and streamflow data are available. We utilize the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) algorithms coupled to the SACSMA and integrate estimates of geochemically-derived flow components. Success is determined not only by the accurate prediction of total discharge, but also by the prediction of flow from contributing sources (i.e. overland, lateral and baseflow components). The coupled SCEM-SACSMA, using only discharge as a criterion, shows reasonable simulation of total runoff and various flow components under pre-fire conditions. Post-fire model simulations show less accurate simulation of total discharge and unrealistic representation of watershed behavior. Pre-fire model runs using the coupled GLUE-SACSMA show reasonable performance integrating total discharge as the threshold criteria; whereas the post fire model run returned empty parameter sets (no sets met threshold criteria). Predictions using the GLUE- SACSMA and derived flow components showed significant improvement, narrowing the uncertainty bounds in total discharge as well as all observed flow components.

  11. Virtual parameter-estimation experiments in Bioprocess-Engineering education.

    PubMed

    Sessink, Olivier D T; Beeftink, Hendrik H; Hartog, Rob J M; Tramper, Johannes

    2006-05-01

    Cell growth kinetics and reactor concepts constitute essential knowledge for Bioprocess-Engineering students. Traditional learning of these concepts is supported by lectures, tutorials, and practicals: ICT offers opportunities for improvement. A virtual-experiment environment was developed that supports both model-related and experimenting-related learning objectives. Students have to design experiments to estimate model parameters: they choose initial conditions and 'measure' output variables. The results contain experimental error, which is an important constraint for experimental design. Students learn from these results and use the new knowledge to re-design their experiment. Within a couple of hours, students design and run many experiments that would take weeks in reality. Usage was evaluated in two courses with questionnaires and in the final exam. The faculties involved in the two courses are convinced that the experiment environment supports essential learning objectives well. PMID:16411072

  12. Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

    PubMed

    Baranyi, József; George, Susan M; Kutalik, Zoltán

    2009-07-01

    In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

  13. Enhancing parameter precision of optimal quantum estimation by quantum screening

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Huang; You-Neng, Guo; Qin, Xie

    2016-02-01

    We propose a scheme of quantum screening to enhance the parameter-estimation precision in open quantum systems by means of the dynamics of quantum Fisher information. The principle of quantum screening is based on an auxiliary system to inhibit the decoherence processes and erase the excited state to the ground state. By comparing the case without quantum screening, the results show that the dynamics of quantum Fisher information with quantum screening has a larger value during the evolution processes. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 11374096), the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province, China (Grants No. 2015A030310354), and the Project of Enhancing School with Innovation of Guangdong Ocean University (Grants Nos. GDOU2014050251 and GDOU2014050252).

  14. Multiphase flow parameter estimation based on laser scattering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vendruscolo, Tiago P.; Fischer, Robert; Martelli, Cicero; Rodrigues, Rômulo L. P.; Morales, Rigoberto E. M.; da Silva, Marco J.

    2015-07-01

    The flow of multiple constituents inside a pipe or vessel, known as multiphase flow, is commonly found in many industry branches. The measurement of the individual flow rates in such flow is still a challenge, which usually requires a combination of several sensor types. However, in many applications, especially in industrial process control, it is not necessary to know the absolute flow rate of the respective phases, but rather to continuously monitor flow conditions in order to quickly detect deviations from the desired parameters. Here we show how a simple and low-cost sensor design can achieve this, by using machine-learning techniques to distinguishing the characteristic patterns of oblique laser light scattered at the phase interfaces. The sensor is capable of estimating individual phase fluxes (as well as their changes) in multiphase flows and may be applied to safety applications due to its quick response time.

  15. CosmoHammer: Cosmological parameter estimation with the MCMC Hammer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Akeret, Joël; Seehars, Sebastian; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre; Csillaghy, André

    2013-08-01

    We study the benefits and limits of parallelised Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling in cosmology. MCMC methods are widely used for the estimation of cosmological parameters from a given set of observations and are typically based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. Some of the required calculations can however be computationally intensive, meaning that a single long chain can take several hours or days to calculate. In practice, this can be limiting, since the MCMC process needs to be performed many times to test the impact of possible systematics and to understand the robustness of the measurements being made. To achieve greater speed through parallelisation, MCMC algorithms need to have short autocorrelation times and minimal overheads caused by tuning and burn-in. The resulting scalability is hence influenced by two factors, the MCMC overheads and the parallelisation costs. In order to efficiently distribute the MCMC sampling over thousands of cores on modern cloud computing infrastructure, we developed a Python framework called CosmoHammer which embeds emcee, an implementation by Foreman-Mackey et al. (2012) of the affine invariant ensemble sampler by Goodman and Weare (2010). We test the performance of CosmoHammer for cosmological parameter estimation from cosmic microwave background data. While Metropolis-Hastings is dominated by overheads, CosmoHammer is able to accelerate the sampling process from a wall time of 30 h on a dual core notebook to 16 min by scaling out to 2048 cores. Such short wall times for complex datasets open possibilities for extensive model testing and control of systematics.

  16. Accurate state estimation for a hydraulic actuator via a SDRE nonlinear filter

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strano, Salvatore; Terzo, Mario

    2016-06-01

    The state estimation in hydraulic actuators is a fundamental tool for the detection of faults or a valid alternative to the installation of sensors. Due to the hard nonlinearities that characterize the hydraulic actuators, the performances of the linear/linearization based techniques for the state estimation are strongly limited. In order to overcome these limits, this paper focuses on an alternative nonlinear estimation method based on the State-Dependent-Riccati-Equation (SDRE). The technique is able to fully take into account the system nonlinearities and the measurement noise. A fifth order nonlinear model is derived and employed for the synthesis of the estimator. Simulations and experimental tests have been conducted and comparisons with the largely used Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) are illustrated. The results show the effectiveness of the SDRE based technique for applications characterized by not negligible nonlinearities such as dead zone and frictions.

  17. Forage quantity estimation from MERIS using band depth parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ullah, Saleem; Yali, Si; Schlerf, Martin

    Saleem Ullah1 , Si Yali1 , Martin Schlerf1 Forage quantity is an important factor influencing feeding pattern and distribution of wildlife. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the predictive performance of vegetation indices and band depth analysis parameters for estimation of green biomass using MERIS data. Green biomass was best predicted by NBDI (normalized band depth index) and yielded a calibration R2 of 0.73 and an accuracy (independent validation dataset, n=30) of 136.2 g/m2 (47 % of the measured mean) compared to a much lower accuracy obtained by soil adjusted vegetation index SAVI (444.6 g/m2, 154 % of the mean) and by other vegetation indices. This study will contribute to map and monitor foliar biomass over the year at regional scale which intern can aid the understanding of bird migration pattern. Keywords: Biomass, Nitrogen density, Nitrogen concentration, Vegetation indices, Band depth analysis parameters 1 Faculty of Geo-Information Science and Earth Observation (ITC), University of Twente, The Netherlands

  18. The GFR and GFR decline cannot be accurately estimated in type 2 diabetics.

    PubMed

    Gaspari, Flavio; Ruggenenti, Piero; Porrini, Esteban; Motterlini, Nicola; Cannata, Antonio; Carrara, Fabiola; Jiménez Sosa, Alejandro; Cella, Claudia; Ferrari, Silvia; Stucchi, Nadia; Parvanova, Aneliya; Iliev, Ilian; Trevisan, Roberto; Bossi, Antonio; Zaletel, Jelka; Remuzzi, Giuseppe

    2013-07-01

    There are no adequate studies that have formally tested the performance of different estimating formulas in patients with type 2 diabetes both with and without overt nephropathy. Here we evaluated the agreement between baseline GFRs, GFR changes at month 6, and long-term GFR decline measured by iohexol plasma clearance or estimated by 15 creatinine-based formulas in 600 type 2 diabetics followed for a median of 4.0 years. Ninety patients were hyperfiltering. The number of those identified by estimation formulas ranged from 0 to 24:58 were not identified by any formula. Baseline GFR was significantly underestimated and a 6-month GFR reduction was missed in hyperfiltering patients. Long-term GFR decline was also underestimated by all formulas in the whole study group and in hyper-, normo-, and hypofiltering patients considered separately. Five formulas generated positive slopes in hyperfiltering patients. Baseline concordance correlation coefficients and total deviation indexes ranged from 32.1% to 92.6% and from 0.21 to 0.53, respectively. Concordance correlation coefficients between estimated and measured long-term GFR decline ranged from -0.21 to 0.35. The agreement between estimated and measured values was also poor within each subgroup considered separately. Thus, our study questions the use of any estimation formula to identify hyperfiltering patients and monitor renal disease progression and response to treatment in type 2 diabetics without overt nephropathy.

  19. Parameter estimation for models of ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzyme kinetics

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Gangsheng; Post, Wilfred M; Mayes, Melanie; Frerichs, Joshua T; Jagadamma, Sindhu

    2012-01-01

    While soil enzymes have been explicitly included in the soil organic carbon (SOC) decomposition models, there is a serious lack of suitable data for model parameterization. This study provides well-documented enzymatic parameters for application in enzyme-driven SOC decomposition models from a compilation and analysis of published measurements. In particular, we developed appropriate kinetic parameters for five typical ligninolytic and cellulolytic enzymes ( -glucosidase, cellobiohydrolase, endo-glucanase, peroxidase, and phenol oxidase). The kinetic parameters included the maximum specific enzyme activity (Vmax) and half-saturation constant (Km) in the Michaelis-Menten equation. The activation energy (Ea) and the pH optimum and sensitivity (pHopt and pHsen) were also analyzed. pHsen was estimated by fitting an exponential-quadratic function. The Vmax values, often presented in different units under various measurement conditions, were converted into the same units at a reference temperature (20 C) and pHopt. Major conclusions are: (i) Both Vmax and Km were log-normal distributed, with no significant difference in Vmax exhibited between enzymes originating from bacteria or fungi. (ii) No significant difference in Vmax was found between cellulases and ligninases; however, there was significant difference in Km between them. (iii) Ligninases had higher Ea values and lower pHopt than cellulases; average ratio of pHsen to pHopt ranged 0.3 0.4 for the five enzymes, which means that an increase or decrease of 1.1 1.7 pH units from pHopt would reduce Vmax by 50%. (iv) Our analysis indicated that the Vmax values from lab measurements with purified enzymes were 1 2 orders of magnitude higher than those for use in SOC decomposition models under field conditions.

  20. Improving a regional model using reduced complexity and parameter estimation

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Kelson, Victor A.; Hunt, Randall J.; Haitjema, Henk M.

    2002-01-01

    The availability of powerful desktop computers and graphical user interfaces for ground water flow models makes possible the construction of ever more complex models. A proposed copper-zinc sulfide mine in northern Wisconsin offers a unique case in which the same hydrologic system has been modeled using a variety of techniques covering a wide range of sophistication and complexity. Early in the permitting process, simple numerical models were used to evaluate the necessary amount of water to be pumped from the mine, reductions in streamflow, and the drawdowns in the regional aquifer. More complex models have subsequently been used in an attempt to refine the predictions. Even after so much modeling effort, questions regarding the accuracy and reliability of the predictions remain. We have performed a new analysis of the proposed mine using the two-dimensional analytic element code GFLOW coupled with the nonlinear parameter estimation code UCODE. The new model is parsimonious, containing fewer than 10 parameters, and covers a region several times larger in areal extent than any of the previous models. The model demonstrates the suitability of analytic element codes for use with parameter estimation codes. The simplified model results are similar to the more complex models; predicted mine inflows and UCODE-derived 95% confidence intervals are consistent with the previous predictions. More important, the large areal extent of the model allowed us to examine hydrological features not included in the previous models, resulting in new insights about the effects that far-field boundary conditions can have on near-field model calibration and parameterization. In this case, the addition of surface water runoff into a lake in the headwaters of a stream while holding recharge constant moved a regional ground watershed divide and resulted in some of the added water being captured by the adjoining basin. Finally, a simple analytical solution was used to clarify the GFLOW model

  1. Parameter estimation for boundary value problems by integral equations of the second kind

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kojima, Fumio

    1988-01-01

    This paper is concerned with the parameter estimation for boundary integral equations of the second kind. The parameter estimation technique through use of the spline collocation method is proposed. Based on the compactness assumption imposed on the parameter space, the convergence analysis for the numerical method of parameter estimation is discussed. The results obtained here are applied to a boundary parameter estimation for 2-D elliptic systems.

  2. Supernovae as probes of cosmic parameters: estimating the bias from under-dense lines of sight

    SciTech Connect

    Busti, V.C.; Clarkson, C.; Holanda, R.F.L. E-mail: holanda@uepb.edu.br

    2013-11-01

    Correctly interpreting observations of sources such as type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) require knowledge of the power spectrum of matter on AU scales — which is very hard to model accurately. Because under-dense regions account for much of the volume of the universe, light from a typical source probes a mean density significantly below the cosmic mean. The relative sparsity of sources implies that there could be a significant bias when inferring distances of SNe Ia, and consequently a bias in cosmological parameter estimation. While the weak lensing approximation should in principle give the correct prediction for this, linear perturbation theory predicts an effectively infinite variance in the convergence for ultra-narrow beams. We attempt to quantify the effect typically under-dense lines of sight might have in parameter estimation by considering three alternative methods for estimating distances, in addition to the usual weak lensing approximation. We find in each case this not only increases the errors in the inferred density parameters, but also introduces a bias in the posterior value.

  3. Parameter Estimation and Energy Minimization for Region-Based Semantic Segmentation.

    PubMed

    Kumar, M Pawan; Turki, Haithem; Preston, Dan; Koller, Daphne

    2015-07-01

    We consider the problem of parameter estimation and energy minimization for a region-based semantic segmentation model. The model divides the pixels of an image into non-overlapping connected regions, each of which is to a semantic class. In the context of energy minimization, the main problem we face is the large number of putative pixel-to-region assignments. We address this problem by designing an accurate linear programming based approach for selecting the best set of regions from a large dictionary. The dictionary is constructed by merging and intersecting segments obtained from multiple bottom-up over-segmentations. The linear program is solved efficiently using dual decomposition. In the context of parameter estimation, the main problem we face is the lack of fully supervised data. We address this issue by developing a principled framework for parameter estimation using diverse data. More precisely, we propose a latent structural support vector machine formulation, where the latent variables model any missing information in the human annotation. Of particular interest to us are three types of annotations: (i) images segmented using generic foreground or background classes; (ii) images with bounding boxes specified for objects; and (iii) images labeled to indicate the presence of a class. Using large, publicly available datasets we show that our methods are able to significantly improve the accuracy of the region-based model. PMID:26352446

  4. An efficient estimator of the mutation parameter and analysis of polymorphism from the 1000 genomes project.

    PubMed

    Fu, Yunxin

    2014-01-01

    The mutation parameter θ is fundamental and ubiquitous in the analysis of population samples of DNA sequences. This paper presents a new highly efficient estimator of θ by utilizing the phylogenetic information among distinct alleles in a sample of DNA sequences. The new estimator, called Allelic BLUE, is derived from a generalized linear model about the mutations in the allelic genealogy. This estimator is not only highly accurate, but also computational efficient, which makes it particularly useful for estimating θ for large samples, as well as for a large number of cases, such as the situation of analyzing sequence data from a large genome project, such as the 1000 Genomes Project. Simulation shows that Allelic BLUE is nearly unbiased, with variance nearly as small as the minimum achievable variance, and in many situations, it can be hundreds- or thousands-fold more efficient than a previous method, which was already quite efficient compared to other approaches. One useful feature of the new estimator is its applicability to collections of distinct alleles without detailed frequencies. The utility of the new estimator is demonstrated by analyzing the pattern of θ in the data from the 1000 Genomes Project. PMID:25055200

  5. Innovative Meta-Heuristic Approach Application for Parameter Estimation of Probability Distribution Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, T. S.; Yoon, S.; Jeong, C.

    2012-12-01

    The primary purpose of frequency analysis in hydrology is to estimate the magnitude of an event with a given frequency of occurrence. The precision of frequency analysis depends on the selection of an appropriate probability distribution model (PDM) and parameter estimation techniques. A number of PDMs have been developed to describe the probability distribution of the hydrological variables. For each of the developed PDMs, estimated parameters are provided based on alternative estimation techniques, such as the method of moments (MOM), probability weighted moments (PWM), linear function of ranked observations (L-moments), and maximum likelihood (ML). Generally, the results using ML are more reliable than the other methods. However, the ML technique is more laborious than the other methods because an iterative numerical solution, such as the Newton-Raphson method, must be used for the parameter estimation of PDMs. In the meantime, meta-heuristic approaches have been developed to solve various engineering optimization problems (e.g., linear and stochastic, dynamic, nonlinear). These approaches include genetic algorithms, ant colony optimization, simulated annealing, tabu searches, and evolutionary computation methods. Meta-heuristic approaches use a stochastic random search instead of a gradient search so that intricate derivative information is unnecessary. Therefore, the meta-heuristic approaches have been shown to be a useful strategy to solve optimization problems in hydrology. A number of studies focus on using meta-heuristic approaches for estimation of hydrological variables with parameter estimation of PDMs. Applied meta-heuristic approaches offer reliable solutions but use more computation time than derivative-based methods. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to enhance the meta-heuristic approach for the parameter estimation of PDMs by using a recently developed algorithm known as a harmony search (HS). The performance of the HS is compared to the

  6. Probabilistic Analysis and Density Parameter Estimation Within Nessus

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Godines, Cody R.; Manteufel, Randall D.

    2002-12-01

    , and 99th percentile of the four responses at the 50 percent confidence level and using the same number of response evaluations for each method. In addition, LHS requires fewer calculations than MC in order to be 99.7 percent confident that a single mean, standard deviation, or 99th percentile estimate will be within at most 3 percent of the true value of the each parameter. Again, this is shown for all of the test cases studied. For that reason it can be said that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ; furthermore, the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

  7. Probabilistic Analysis and Density Parameter Estimation Within Nessus

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Godines, Cody R.; Manteufel, Randall D.; Chamis, Christos C. (Technical Monitor)

    2002-01-01

    , and 99th percentile of the four responses at the 50 percent confidence level and using the same number of response evaluations for each method. In addition, LHS requires fewer calculations than MC in order to be 99.7 percent confident that a single mean, standard deviation, or 99th percentile estimate will be within at most 3 percent of the true value of the each parameter. Again, this is shown for all of the test cases studied. For that reason it can be said that NESSUS is an important reliability tool that has a variety of sound probabilistic methods a user can employ; furthermore, the newest LHS module is a valuable new enhancement of the program.

  8. Precision Pointing Control to and Accurate Target Estimation of a Non-Cooperative Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    VanEepoel, John; Thienel, Julie; Sanner, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    In 2004, NASA began investigating a robotic servicing mission for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Such a mission would not only require estimates of the HST attitude and rates in order to achieve capture by the proposed Hubble Robotic Vehicle (HRV), but also precision control to achieve the desired rate and maintain the orientation to successfully dock with HST. To generalize the situation, HST is the target vehicle and HRV is the chaser. This work presents a nonlinear approach for estimating the body rates of a non-cooperative target vehicle, and coupling this estimation to a control scheme. Non-cooperative in this context relates to the target vehicle no longer having the ability to maintain attitude control or transmit attitude knowledge.

  9. Some recommendations for an accurate estimation of Lanice conchilega density based on tube counts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    van Hoey, Gert; Vincx, Magda; Degraer, Steven

    2006-12-01

    The tube building polychaete Lanice conchilega is a common and ecologically important species in intertidal and shallow subtidal sands. It builds a characteristic tube with ragged fringes and can retract rapidly into its tube to depths of more than 20 cm. Therefore, it is very difficult to sample L. conchilega individuals, especially with a Van Veen grab. Consequently, many studies have used tube counts as estimates of real densities. This study reports on some aspects to be considered when using tube counts as a density estimate of L. conchilega, based on intertidal and subtidal samples. Due to its accuracy and independence of sampling depth, the tube method is considered the prime method to estimate the density of L. conchilega. However, caution is needed when analyzing samples with fragile young individuals and samples from areas where temporary physical disturbance is likely to occur.

  10. Accurate State Estimation and Tracking of a Non-Cooperative Target Vehicle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thienel, Julie K.; Sanner, Robert M.

    2006-01-01

    Autonomous space rendezvous scenarios require knowledge of the target vehicle state in order to safely dock with the chaser vehicle. Ideally, the target vehicle state information is derived from telemetered data, or with the use of known tracking points on the target vehicle. However, if the target vehicle is non-cooperative and does not have the ability to maintain attitude control, or transmit attitude knowledge, the docking becomes more challenging. This work presents a nonlinear approach for estimating the body rates of a non-cooperative target vehicle, and coupling this estimation to a tracking control scheme. The approach is tested with the robotic servicing mission concept for the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). Such a mission would not only require estimates of the HST attitude and rates, but also precision control to achieve the desired rate and maintain the orientation to successfully dock with HST.

  11. A microbial clock provides an accurate estimate of the postmortem interval in a mouse model system

    PubMed Central

    Metcalf, Jessica L; Wegener Parfrey, Laura; Gonzalez, Antonio; Lauber, Christian L; Knights, Dan; Ackermann, Gail; Humphrey, Gregory C; Gebert, Matthew J; Van Treuren, Will; Berg-Lyons, Donna; Keepers, Kyle; Guo, Yan; Bullard, James; Fierer, Noah; Carter, David O; Knight, Rob

    2013-01-01

    Establishing the time since death is critical in every death investigation, yet existing techniques are susceptible to a range of errors and biases. For example, forensic entomology is widely used to assess the postmortem interval (PMI), but errors can range from days to months. Microbes may provide a novel method for estimating PMI that avoids many of these limitations. Here we show that postmortem microbial community changes are dramatic, measurable, and repeatable in a mouse model system, allowing PMI to be estimated within approximately 3 days over 48 days. Our results provide a detailed understanding of bacterial and microbial eukaryotic ecology within a decomposing corpse system and suggest that microbial community data can be developed into a forensic tool for estimating PMI. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.01104.001 PMID:24137541

  12. Fast and accurate probability density estimation in large high dimensional astronomical datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Pramod; Connolly, Andrew J.; Gardner, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    Astronomical surveys will generate measurements of hundreds of attributes (e.g. color, size, shape) on hundreds of millions of sources. Analyzing these large, high dimensional data sets will require efficient algorithms for data analysis. An example of this is probability density estimation that is at the heart of many classification problems such as the separation of stars and quasars based on their colors. Popular density estimation techniques use binning or kernel density estimation. Kernel density estimation has a small memory footprint but often requires large computational resources. Binning has small computational requirements but usually binning is implemented with multi-dimensional arrays which leads to memory requirements which scale exponentially with the number of dimensions. Hence both techniques do not scale well to large data sets in high dimensions. We present an alternative approach of binning implemented with hash tables (BASH tables). This approach uses the sparseness of data in the high dimensional space to ensure that the memory requirements are small. However hashing requires some extra computation so a priori it is not clear if the reduction in memory requirements will lead to increased computational requirements. Through an implementation of BASH tables in C++ we show that the additional computational requirements of hashing are negligible. Hence this approach has small memory and computational requirements. We apply our density estimation technique to photometric selection of quasars using non-parametric Bayesian classification and show that the accuracy of the classification is same as the accuracy of earlier approaches. Since the BASH table approach is one to three orders of magnitude faster than the earlier approaches it may be useful in various other applications of density estimation in astrostatistics.

  13. Crop area estimation based on remotely-sensed data with an accurate but costly subsample

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gunst, R. F.

    1985-01-01

    Research activities conducted under the auspices of National Aeronautics and Space Administration Cooperative Agreement NCC 9-9 are discussed. During this contract period research efforts are concentrated in two primary areas. The first are is an investigation of the use of measurement error models as alternatives to least squares regression estimators of crop production or timber biomass. The secondary primary area of investigation is on the estimation of the mixing proportion of two-component mixture models. This report lists publications, technical reports, submitted manuscripts, and oral presentation generated by these research efforts. Possible areas of future research are mentioned.

  14. Spectral estimation from laser scanner data for accurate color rendering of objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Baribeau, Rejean

    2002-06-01

    Estimation methods are studied for the recovery of the spectral reflectance across the visible range from the sensing at just three discrete laser wavelengths. Methods based on principal component analysis and on spline interpolation are judged based on the CIE94 color differences for some reference data sets. These include the Macbeth color checker, the OSA-UCS color charts, some artist pigments, and a collection of miscellaneous surface colors. The optimal three sampling wavelengths are also investigated. It is found that color can be estimated with average accuracy ΔE94 = 2.3 when optimal wavelengths 455 nm, 540 n, and 610 nm are used.

  15. Investigating the Impact of Uncertainty about Item Parameters on Ability Estimation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zhang, Jinming; Xie, Minge; Song, Xiaolan; Lu, Ting

    2011-01-01

    Asymptotic expansions of the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and weighted likelihood estimator (WLE) of an examinee's ability are derived while item parameter estimators are treated as covariates measured with error. The asymptotic formulae present the amount of bias of the ability estimators due to the uncertainty of item parameter estimators.…

  16. Accurate radiocarbon age estimation using "early" measurements: a new approach to reconstructing the Paleolithic absolute chronology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Omori, Takayuki; Sano, Katsuhiro; Yoneda, Minoru

    2014-05-01

    This paper presents new correction approaches for "early" radiocarbon ages to reconstruct the Paleolithic absolute chronology. In order to discuss time-space distribution about the replacement of archaic humans, including Neanderthals in Europe, by the modern humans, a massive data, which covers a wide-area, would be needed. Today, some radiocarbon databases focused on the Paleolithic have been published and used for chronological studies. From a viewpoint of current analytical technology, however, the any database have unreliable results that make interpretation of radiocarbon dates difficult. Most of these unreliable ages had been published in the early days of radiocarbon analysis. In recent years, new analytical methods to determine highly-accurate dates have been developed. Ultrafiltration and ABOx-SC methods, as new sample pretreatments for bone and charcoal respectively, have attracted attention because they could remove imperceptible contaminates and derive reliable accurately ages. In order to evaluate the reliability of "early" data, we investigated the differences and variabilities of radiocarbon ages on different pretreatments, and attempted to develop correction functions for the assessment of the reliability. It can be expected that reliability of the corrected age is increased and the age applied to chronological research together with recent ages. Here, we introduce the methodological frameworks and archaeological applications.

  17. Graphical estimation of the dual-enzyme kinetic parameters for Cr(VI) reduction.

    PubMed

    Hossain, Md Akram

    2006-03-01

    Chromium(VI) (Cr(VI)) contamination of soil and groundwater is a major environmental concern. Bioreduction of Cr(VI) by Shewanella oneidensis MR-1 (MR-1) can be considered a feasible option to reduce the toxic and mobile Cr(VI) to the less toxic and less mobile chromium(III) (Cr(III)). The reaction rate expression for Cr(VI) reduction is nonlinear and the rate constants are evaluated by employing nonlinear optimization techniques. The outcome of the optimization techniques, in general, depends on the initial estimate of the kinetic parameters which is not always available. A graphical approach based on sound mathematical reasoning has been developed which is accurate, simpler to use, and can provide the best initial estimate for nonlinear optimization.

  18. Estimating maize grain yield from crop biophysical parameters using remote sensing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guindin-Garcia, Noemi

    The overall objective of this investigation was to develop a robust technique to predict maize (Zea mays L.) grain yield that could be applied at a regional level using remote sensing with or without a simple crop growth simulation model. This study evaluated capabilities and limitations of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Vegetation Index 250-m and MODIS surface reflectance 500-m products to track and retrieve information over maize fields. Results demonstrated the feasibility of using MODIS data to estimate maize green leaf area index (LAIg). Estimates of maize LAIg obtained from Wide Dynamic Range Vegetation Index using data retrieved from MODIS 250-m products (e.g. MOD13Q1) can be incorporated in crop simulation models to improve LAIg simulations by the Muchow-Sinclair-Bennet (MSB) model reducing the RMSE of LAIg simulations for all years of study under irrigation. However, more accurate estimates of LAIg did not necessarily imply better final yield (FY) predictions in the MSB maize model. The approach of incorporating better LAIg estimates into crop simulation models may not offer a panacea for problem solving; this approach is limited in its ability to simulate other factors influencing crop yields. On the other hand, the approach of relating key crop biophysical parameters at the optimum stage with maize grain final yields is a robust technique to early FY estimation over large areas. Results suggest that estimates of LAI g obtained during the mid-grain filling period can used to detect variability of maize grain yield and this technique offers a rapid and accurate (RMSE < 900 kg ha-1) method to detect FY at county level using MODIS 250-m products.

  19. How Accurate and Robust Are the Phylogenetic Estimates of Austronesian Language Relationships?

    PubMed Central

    Greenhill, Simon J.; Drummond, Alexei J.; Gray, Russell D.

    2010-01-01

    We recently used computational phylogenetic methods on lexical data to test between two scenarios for the peopling of the Pacific. Our analyses of lexical data supported a pulse-pause scenario of Pacific settlement in which the Austronesian speakers originated in Taiwan around 5,200 years ago and rapidly spread through the Pacific in a series of expansion pulses and settlement pauses. We claimed that there was high congruence between traditional language subgroups and those observed in the language phylogenies, and that the estimated age of the Austronesian expansion at 5,200 years ago was consistent with the archaeological evidence. However, the congruence between the language phylogenies and the evidence from historical linguistics was not quantitatively assessed using tree comparison metrics. The robustness of the divergence time estimates to different calibration points was also not investigated exhaustively. Here we address these limitations by using a systematic tree comparison metric to calculate the similarity between the Bayesian phylogenetic trees and the subgroups proposed by historical linguistics, and by re-estimating the age of the Austronesian expansion using only the most robust calibrations. The results show that the Austronesian language phylogenies are highly congruent with the traditional subgroupings, and the date estimates are robust even when calculated using a restricted set of historical calibrations. PMID:20224774

  20. A Two-Stage Algorithm for Origin-Destination Matrices Estimation Considering Dynamic Dispersion Parameter for Route Choice

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Yong; Ma, Xiaolei; Liu, Yong; Gong, Ke; Henricakson, Kristian C.; Xu, Maozeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage algorithm to simultaneously estimate origin-destination (OD) matrix, link choice proportion, and dispersion parameter using partial traffic counts in a congested network. A non-linear optimization model is developed which incorporates a dynamic dispersion parameter, followed by a two-stage algorithm in which Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation and a Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) assignment model are iteratively applied until the convergence is reached. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the proposed approach is implemented in a hypothetical network using input data with high error, and tested under a range of variation coefficients. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of the estimated OD demand and link flows are used to evaluate the model estimation results. The results indicate that the estimated dispersion parameter theta is insensitive to the choice of variation coefficients. The proposed approach is shown to outperform two established OD estimation methods and produce parameter estimates that are close to the ground truth. In addition, the proposed approach is applied to an empirical network in Seattle, WA to validate the robustness and practicality of this methodology. In summary, this study proposes and evaluates an innovative computational approach to accurately estimate OD matrices using link-level traffic flow data, and provides useful insight for optimal parameter selection in modeling travelers’ route choice behavior. PMID:26761209

  1. A Two-Stage Algorithm for Origin-Destination Matrices Estimation Considering Dynamic Dispersion Parameter for Route Choice.

    PubMed

    Wang, Yong; Ma, Xiaolei; Liu, Yong; Gong, Ke; Henrickson, Kristian C; Henricakson, Kristian C; Xu, Maozeng; Wang, Yinhai

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a two-stage algorithm to simultaneously estimate origin-destination (OD) matrix, link choice proportion, and dispersion parameter using partial traffic counts in a congested network. A non-linear optimization model is developed which incorporates a dynamic dispersion parameter, followed by a two-stage algorithm in which Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation and a Stochastic User Equilibrium (SUE) assignment model are iteratively applied until the convergence is reached. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the proposed approach is implemented in a hypothetical network using input data with high error, and tested under a range of variation coefficients. The root mean squared error (RMSE) of the estimated OD demand and link flows are used to evaluate the model estimation results. The results indicate that the estimated dispersion parameter theta is insensitive to the choice of variation coefficients. The proposed approach is shown to outperform two established OD estimation methods and produce parameter estimates that are close to the ground truth. In addition, the proposed approach is applied to an empirical network in Seattle, WA to validate the robustness and practicality of this methodology. In summary, this study proposes and evaluates an innovative computational approach to accurately estimate OD matrices using link-level traffic flow data, and provides useful insight for optimal parameter selection in modeling travelers' route choice behavior. PMID:26761209

  2. ORBSIM- ESTIMATING GEOPHYSICAL MODEL PARAMETERS FROM PLANETARY GRAVITY DATA

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sjogren, W. L.

    1994-01-01

    The ORBSIM program was developed for the accurate extraction of geophysical model parameters from Doppler radio tracking data acquired from orbiting planetary spacecraft. The model of the proposed planetary structure is used in a numerical integration of the spacecraft along simulated trajectories around the primary body. Using line of sight (LOS) Doppler residuals, ORBSIM applies fast and efficient modelling and optimization procedures which avoid the traditional complex dynamic reduction of data. ORBSIM produces quantitative geophysical results such as size, depth, and mass. ORBSIM has been used extensively to investigate topographic features on the Moon, Mars, and Venus. The program has proven particulary suitable for modelling gravitational anomalies and mascons. The basic observable for spacecraft-based gravity data is the Doppler frequency shift of a transponded radio signal. The time derivative of this signal carries information regarding the gravity field acting on the spacecraft in the LOS direction (the LOS direction being the path between the spacecraft and the receiving station, either Earth or another satellite). There are many dynamic factors taken into account: earth rotation, solar radiation, acceleration from planetary bodies, tracking station time and location adjustments, etc. The actual trajectories of the spacecraft are simulated using least squares fitted to conic motion. The theoretical Doppler readings from the simulated orbits are compared to actual Doppler observations and another least squares adjustment is made. ORBSIM has three modes of operation: trajectory simulation, optimization, and gravity modelling. In all cases, an initial gravity model of curved and/or flat disks, harmonics, and/or a force table are required input. ORBSIM is written in FORTRAN 77 for batch execution and has been implemented on a DEC VAX 11/780 computer operating under VMS. This program was released in 1985.

  3. Clinical refinement of the automatic lung parameter estimator (ALPE).

    PubMed

    Thomsen, Lars P; Karbing, Dan S; Smith, Bram W; Murley, David; Weinreich, Ulla M; Kjærgaard, Søren; Toft, Egon; Thorgaard, Per; Andreassen, Steen; Rees, Stephen E

    2013-06-01

    The automatic lung parameter estimator (ALPE) method was developed in 2002 for bedside estimation of pulmonary gas exchange using step changes in inspired oxygen fraction (FIO₂). Since then a number of studies have been conducted indicating the potential for clinical application and necessitating systems evolution to match clinical application. This paper describes and evaluates the evolution of the ALPE method from a research implementation (ALPE1) to two commercial implementations (ALPE2 and ALPE3). A need for dedicated implementations of the ALPE method was identified: one for spontaneously breathing (non-mechanically ventilated) patients (ALPE2) and one for mechanically ventilated patients (ALPE3). For these two implementations, design issues relating to usability and automation are described including the mixing of gasses to achieve FIO₂ levels, and the automatic selection of FIO₂. For ALPE2, these improvements are evaluated against patients studied using the system. The major result is the evolution of the ALPE method into two dedicated implementations, namely ALPE2 and ALPE3. For ALPE2, the usability and automation of FIO₂ selection has been evaluated in spontaneously breathing patients showing that variability of gas delivery is 0.3 % (standard deviation) in 1,332 breaths from 20 patients. Also for ALPE2, the automated FIO2 selection method was successfully applied in 287 patient cases, taking 7.2 ± 2.4 min and was shown to be safe with only one patient having SpO₂ < 86 % when the clinician disabled the alarms. The ALPE method has evolved into two practical, usable systems targeted at clinical application, namely ALPE2 for spontaneously breathing patients and ALPE3 for mechanically ventilated patients. These systems may promote the exploration of the use of more detailed descriptions of pulmonary gas exchange in clinical practice.

  4. Use of Dual-wavelength Radar for Snow Parameter Estimates

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liao, Liang; Meneghini, Robert; Iguchi, Toshio; Detwiler, Andrew

    2005-01-01

    Use of dual-wavelength radar, with properly chosen wavelengths, will significantly lessen the ambiguities in the retrieval of microphysical properties of hydrometeors. In this paper, a dual-wavelength algorithm is described to estimate the characteristic parameters of the snow size distributions. An analysis of the computational results, made at X and Ka bands (T-39 airborne radar) and at S and X bands (CP-2 ground-based radar), indicates that valid estimates of the median volume diameter of snow particles, D(sub 0), should be possible if one of the two wavelengths of the radar operates in the non-Rayleigh scattering region. However, the accuracy may be affected to some extent if the shape factors of the Gamma function used for describing the particle distribution are chosen far from the true values or if cloud water attenuation is significant. To examine the validity and accuracy of the dual-wavelength radar algorithms, the algorithms are applied to the data taken from the Convective and Precipitation-Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in 1991, in which the dual-wavelength airborne radar was coordinated with in situ aircraft particle observations and ground-based radar measurements. Having carefully co-registered the data obtained from the different platforms, the airborne radar-derived size distributions are then compared with the in-situ measurements and ground-based radar. Good agreement is found for these comparisons despite the uncertainties resulting from mismatches of the sample volumes among the different sensors as well as spatial and temporal offsets.

  5. Estimation of impact damping parameters for a cam-follower system based on measurements and analytical model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sundar, Sriram; Dreyer, Jason T.; Singh, Rajendra

    2016-12-01

    A new cam-follower system experiment capable of generating periodic impacts is utilized to estimate the impact damping model parameters. The experiment is designed to precisely measure the forces and acceleration during impulsive events. The impact damping force is described as a product of a damping coefficient, the indentation displacement raised to the power of a damping index, and the time derivative of the indentation displacement. A novel time-domain based technique and a signal processing procedure are developed to accurately estimate the damping coefficient and index. The measurements are compared to the predictions from a corresponding contact mechanics model with trial values of damping parameters on the basis of a particular residue; both parameters are quantified based on the minimization of this residue. The estimated damping parameters are justified using the literature and an equivalent coefficient of restitution model is developed. Also, some unresolved issues regarding the impact damping model are addressed.

  6. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    PubMed

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions.

  7. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO.

    PubMed

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S C

    2015-11-24

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search-based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people's online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. PMID:26553980

  8. Accurate estimation of influenza epidemics using Google search data via ARGO

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Shihao; Santillana, Mauricio; Kou, S. C.

    2015-01-01

    Accurate real-time tracking of influenza outbreaks helps public health officials make timely and meaningful decisions that could save lives. We propose an influenza tracking model, ARGO (AutoRegression with GOogle search data), that uses publicly available online search data. In addition to having a rigorous statistical foundation, ARGO outperforms all previously available Google-search–based tracking models, including the latest version of Google Flu Trends, even though it uses only low-quality search data as input from publicly available Google Trends and Google Correlate websites. ARGO not only incorporates the seasonality in influenza epidemics but also captures changes in people’s online search behavior over time. ARGO is also flexible, self-correcting, robust, and scalable, making it a potentially powerful tool that can be used for real-time tracking of other social events at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. PMID:26553980

  9. Raman spectroscopy for highly accurate estimation of the age of refrigerated porcine muscle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Timinis, Constantinos; Pitris, Costas

    2016-03-01

    The high water content of meat, combined with all the nutrients it contains, make it vulnerable to spoilage at all stages of production and storage even when refrigerated at 5 °C. A non-destructive and in situ tool for meat sample testing, which could provide an accurate indication of the storage time of meat, would be very useful for the control of meat quality as well as for consumer safety. The proposed solution is based on Raman spectroscopy which is non-invasive and can be applied in situ. For the purposes of this project, 42 meat samples from 14 animals were obtained and three Raman spectra per sample were collected every two days for two weeks. The spectra were subsequently processed and the sample age was calculated using a set of linear differential equations. In addition, the samples were classified in categories corresponding to the age in 2-day steps (i.e., 0, 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 12 or 14 days old), using linear discriminant analysis and cross-validation. Contrary to other studies, where the samples were simply grouped into two categories (higher or lower quality, suitable or unsuitable for human consumption, etc.), in this study, the age was predicted with a mean error of ~ 1 day (20%) or classified, in 2-day steps, with 100% accuracy. Although Raman spectroscopy has been used in the past for the analysis of meat samples, the proposed methodology has resulted in a prediction of the sample age far more accurately than any report in the literature.

  10. Are satellite based rainfall estimates accurate enough for crop modelling under Sahelian climate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramarohetra, J.; Sultan, B.

    2012-04-01

    Agriculture is considered as the most climate dependant human activity. In West Africa and especially in the sudano-sahelian zone, rain-fed agriculture - that represents 93% of cultivated areas and is the means of support of 70% of the active population - is highly vulnerable to precipitation variability. To better understand and anticipate climate impacts on agriculture, crop models - that estimate crop yield from climate information (e.g rainfall, temperature, insolation, humidity) - have been developed. These crop models are useful (i) in ex ante analysis to quantify the impact of different strategies implementation - crop management (e.g. choice of varieties, sowing date), crop insurance or medium-range weather forecast - on yields, (ii) for early warning systems and to (iii) assess future food security. Yet, the successful application of these models depends on the accuracy of their climatic drivers. In the sudano-sahelian zone , the quality of precipitation estimations is then a key factor to understand and anticipate climate impacts on agriculture via crop modelling and yield estimations. Different kinds of precipitation estimations can be used. Ground measurements have long-time series but an insufficient network density, a large proportion of missing values, delay in reporting time, and they have limited availability. An answer to these shortcomings may lie in the field of remote sensing that provides satellite-based precipitation estimations. However, satellite-based rainfall estimates (SRFE) are not a direct measurement but rather an estimation of precipitation. Used as an input for crop models, it determines the performance of the simulated yield, hence SRFE require validation. The SARRAH crop model is used to model three different varieties of pearl millet (HKP, MTDO, Souna3) in a square degree centred on 13.5°N and 2.5°E, in Niger. Eight satellite-based rainfall daily products (PERSIANN, CMORPH, TRMM 3b42-RT, GSMAP MKV+, GPCP, TRMM 3b42v6, RFEv2 and

  11. Techniques for accurate estimation of net discharge in a tidal channel

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Simpson, Michael R.; Bland, Roger

    1999-01-01

    An ultrasonic velocity meter discharge-measurement site in a tidally affected region of the Sacramento-San Joaquin rivers was used to study the accuracy of the index velocity calibration procedure. Calibration data consisting of ultrasonic velocity meter index velocity and concurrent acoustic Doppler discharge measurement data were collected during three time periods. The relative magnitude of equipment errors, acoustic Doppler discharge measurement errors, and calibration errors were evaluated. Calibration error was the most significant source of error in estimating net discharge. Using a comprehensive calibration method, net discharge estimates developed from the three sets of calibration data differed by less than an average of 4 cubic meters per second. Typical maximum flow rates during the data-collection period averaged 750 cubic meters per second.

  12. Plant DNA Barcodes Can Accurately Estimate Species Richness in Poorly Known Floras

    PubMed Central

    Costion, Craig; Ford, Andrew; Cross, Hugh; Crayn, Darren; Harrington, Mark; Lowe, Andrew

    2011-01-01

    Background Widespread uptake of DNA barcoding technology for vascular plants has been slow due to the relatively poor resolution of species discrimination (∼70%) and low sequencing and amplification success of one of the two official barcoding loci, matK. Studies to date have mostly focused on finding a solution to these intrinsic limitations of the markers, rather than posing questions that can maximize the utility of DNA barcodes for plants with the current technology. Methodology/Principal Findings Here we test the ability of plant DNA barcodes using the two official barcoding loci, rbcLa and matK, plus an alternative barcoding locus, trnH-psbA, to estimate the species diversity of trees in a tropical rainforest plot. Species discrimination accuracy was similar to findings from previous studies but species richness estimation accuracy proved higher, up to 89%. All combinations which included the trnH-psbA locus performed better at both species discrimination and richness estimation than matK, which showed little enhanced species discriminatory power when concatenated with rbcLa. The utility of the trnH-psbA locus is limited however, by the occurrence of intraspecific variation observed in some angiosperm families to occur as an inversion that obscures the monophyly of species. Conclusions/Significance We demonstrate for the first time, using a case study, the potential of plant DNA barcodes for the rapid estimation of species richness in taxonomically poorly known areas or cryptic populations revealing a powerful new tool for rapid biodiversity assessment. The combination of the rbcLa and trnH-psbA loci performed better for this purpose than any two-locus combination that included matK. We show that although DNA barcodes fail to discriminate all species of plants, new perspectives and methods on biodiversity value and quantification may overshadow some of these shortcomings by applying barcode data in new ways. PMID:22096501

  13. Cosmological parameter estimation with large scale structure observations

    SciTech Connect

    Dio, Enea Di; Montanari, Francesco; Durrer, Ruth; Lesgourgues, Julien E-mail: Francesco.Montanari@unige.ch E-mail: Julien.Lesgourgues@cern.ch

    2014-01-01

    We estimate the sensitivity of future galaxy surveys to cosmological parameters, using the redshift dependent angular power spectra of galaxy number counts, C{sub ℓ}(z{sub 1},z{sub 2}), calculated with all relativistic corrections at first order in perturbation theory. We pay special attention to the redshift dependence of the non-linearity scale and present Fisher matrix forecasts for Euclid-like and DES-like galaxy surveys. We compare the standard P(k) analysis with the new C{sub ℓ}(z{sub 1},z{sub 2}) method. We show that for surveys with photometric redshifts the new analysis performs significantly better than the P(k) analysis. For spectroscopic redshifts, however, the large number of redshift bins which would be needed to fully profit from the redshift information, is severely limited by shot noise. We also identify surveys which can measure the lensing contribution and we study the monopole, C{sub 0}(z{sub 1},z{sub 2})

  14. Anaerobic biodegradability of fish remains: experimental investigation and parameter estimation.

    PubMed

    Donoso-Bravo, Andres; Bindels, Francoise; Gerin, Patrick A; Vande Wouwer, Alain

    2015-01-01

    The generation of organic waste associated with aquaculture fish processing has increased significantly in recent decades. The objective of this study is to evaluate the anaerobic biodegradability of several fish processing fractions, as well as water treatment sludge, for tilapia and sturgeon species cultured in recirculated aquaculture systems. After substrate characterization, the ultimate biodegradability and the hydrolytic rate were estimated by fitting a first-order kinetic model with the biogas production profiles. In general, the first-order model was able to reproduce the biogas profiles properly with a high correlation coefficient. In the case of tilapia, the skin/fin, viscera, head and flesh presented a high level of biodegradability, above 310 mLCH₄gCOD⁻¹, whereas the head and bones showed a low hydrolytic rate. For sturgeon, the results for all fractions were quite similar in terms of both parameters, although viscera presented the lowest values. Both the substrate characterization and the kinetic analysis of the anaerobic degradation may be used as design criteria for implementing anaerobic digestion in a recirculating aquaculture system.

  15. Bayesian analysis of inflation: Parameter estimation for single field models

    SciTech Connect

    Mortonson, Michael J.; Peiris, Hiranya V.; Easther, Richard

    2011-02-15

    Future astrophysical data sets promise to strengthen constraints on models of inflation, and extracting these constraints requires methods and tools commensurate with the quality of the data. In this paper we describe ModeCode, a new, publicly available code that computes the primordial scalar and tensor power spectra for single-field inflationary models. ModeCode solves the inflationary mode equations numerically, avoiding the slow roll approximation. It is interfaced with CAMB and CosmoMC to compute cosmic microwave background angular power spectra and perform likelihood analysis and parameter estimation. ModeCode is easily extendable to additional models of inflation, and future updates will include Bayesian model comparison. Errors from ModeCode contribute negligibly to the error budget for analyses of data from Planck or other next generation experiments. We constrain representative single-field models ({phi}{sup n} with n=2/3, 1, 2, and 4, natural inflation, and 'hilltop' inflation) using current data, and provide forecasts for Planck. From current data, we obtain weak but nontrivial limits on the post-inflationary physics, which is a significant source of uncertainty in the predictions of inflationary models, while we find that Planck will dramatically improve these constraints. In particular, Planck will link the inflationary dynamics with the post-inflationary growth of the horizon, and thus begin to probe the ''primordial dark ages'' between TeV and grand unified theory scale energies.

  16. Effect of climate variability on estimation of greenhouse parameters: Usefulness of a pre-instrumental temperature record

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kheshgi, Haroon S.; White, Benjamin S.

    To estimate the strength of the greenhouse warming signal embedded in the noise of natural climate variability, a statistical methodology is applied to a functional model of the signal and stochastic models of the noise. The confidence of greenhouse parameter estimates, namely climate sensitivity, obtained from a record of global near-surface temperature is highly dependent on natural climate variability with a time scale of roughly a century. A pre-instrumental temperature record is needed to construct empirically a model for natural variability of century time-scale which, in turn, is needed to determine the confidence of parameter estimates. However, for assumed models for climate variability, data prior to 1950 does not significantly improve the confidence of estimates. In fact, addition of an accurate pre-instrumental record is not expected to have a large impact on climate sensitivity estimates made with only the instrumental temperature record.

  17. Using groundwater temperature data to constrain parameter estimation in a groundwater flow model of a wetland system

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Bravo, H.R.; Jiang, F.; Hunt, R.J.

    2002-01-01

    Parameter estimation is a powerful way to calibrate models. While head data alone are often insufficient to estimate unique parameters due to model nonuniqueness, flow-and-heat-transport modeling can constrain estimation and allow simultaneous estimation of boundary fluxes and hydraulic conductivity. In this work, synthetic and field models that did not converge when head data were used did converge when head and temperature were used. Furthermore, frequency domain analyses of head and temperature data allowed selection of appropriate modeling timescales. Inflows in the Wilton, Wisconsin, wetlands could be estimated over periods such as a growing season and over periods of a few days when heads were nearly steady and groundwater temperature varied during the day. While this methodology is computationally more demanding than traditional head calibration, the results gained are unobtainable using the traditional approach. These results suggest that temperature can efficiently supplement head data in systems where accurate flux calibration targets are unavailable.

  18. Estimating Photometric Redshifts with Artificial Neural Networks and Multi-Parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Li-Li; Zhang, Yan-Xia; Zhao, Yong-Heng; Yang, Da-Wei

    2007-06-01

    We calculate photometric redshifts from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 2 (SDSS DR2) Galaxy Sample using artificial neural networks (ANNs). Different input sets based on various parameters (e.g. magnitude, color index, flux information) are explored. Mainly, parameters from broadband photometry are utilized and their performances in redshift prediction are compared. While any parameter may be easily incorporated in the input, our results indicate that using the dereddened magnitudes often produces more accurate photometric redshifts than using the Petrosian magnitudes or model magnitudes as input, but the model magnitudes are superior to the Petrosian magnitudes. Also, better performance results when more effective parameters are used in the training set. The method is tested on a sample of 79 346 galaxies from the SDSS DR2. When using 19 parameters based on the dereddened magnitudes, the rms error in redshift estimation is σz = 0.020184. The ANN is highly competitive tool compared to the traditional template-fitting methods when a large and representative training set is available.

  19. Parameter estimation for chaotic systems using a hybrid adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Shudao; Zhou, Bihua

    2014-03-01

    This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm.

  20. Parameter estimation for chaotic systems using a hybrid adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm.

    PubMed

    Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Shudao; Zhou, Bihua

    2014-03-01

    This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm.

  1. Parameter estimation for chaotic systems using a hybrid adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm.

    PubMed

    Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Shudao; Zhou, Bihua

    2014-03-01

    This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm. PMID:24697395

  2. Parameter estimation for chaotic systems using a hybrid adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm

    SciTech Connect

    Sheng, Zheng; Wang, Jun; Zhou, Bihua; Zhou, Shudao

    2014-03-15

    This paper introduces a novel hybrid optimization algorithm to establish the parameters of chaotic systems. In order to deal with the weaknesses of the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, the proposed adaptive cuckoo search with simulated annealing algorithm is presented, which incorporates the adaptive parameters adjusting operation and the simulated annealing operation in the cuckoo search algorithm. Normally, the parameters of the cuckoo search algorithm are kept constant that may result in decreasing the efficiency of the algorithm. For the purpose of balancing and enhancing the accuracy and convergence rate of the cuckoo search algorithm, the adaptive operation is presented to tune the parameters properly. Besides, the local search capability of cuckoo search algorithm is relatively weak that may decrease the quality of optimization. So the simulated annealing operation is merged into the cuckoo search algorithm to enhance the local search ability and improve the accuracy and reliability of the results. The functionality of the proposed hybrid algorithm is investigated through the Lorenz chaotic system under the noiseless and noise condition, respectively. The numerical results demonstrate that the method can estimate parameters efficiently and accurately in the noiseless and noise condition. Finally, the results are compared with the traditional cuckoo search algorithm, genetic algorithm, and particle swarm optimization algorithm. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness and superior performance of the proposed algorithm.

  3. Automated source term and wind parameter estimation for atmospheric transport and dispersion applications

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bieringer, Paul E.; Rodriguez, Luna M.; Vandenberghe, Francois; Hurst, Jonathan G.; Bieberbach, George; Sykes, Ian; Hannan, John R.; Zaragoza, Jake; Fry, Richard N.

    2015-12-01

    Accurate simulations of the atmospheric transport and dispersion (AT&D) of hazardous airborne materials rely heavily on the source term parameters necessary to characterize the initial release and meteorological conditions that drive the downwind dispersion. In many cases the source parameters are not known and consequently based on rudimentary assumptions. This is particularly true of accidental releases and the intentional releases associated with terrorist incidents. When available, meteorological observations are often not representative of the conditions at the location of the release and the use of these non-representative meteorological conditions can result in significant errors in the hazard assessments downwind of the sensors, even when the other source parameters are accurately characterized. Here, we describe a computationally efficient methodology to characterize both the release source parameters and the low-level winds (eg. winds near the surface) required to produce a refined downwind hazard. This methodology, known as the Variational Iterative Refinement Source Term Estimation (STE) Algorithm (VIRSA), consists of a combination of modeling systems. These systems include a back-trajectory based source inversion method, a forward Gaussian puff dispersion model, a variational refinement algorithm that uses both a simple forward AT&D model that is a surrogate for the more complex Gaussian puff model and a formal adjoint of this surrogate model. The back-trajectory based method is used to calculate a "first guess" source estimate based on the available observations of the airborne contaminant plume and atmospheric conditions. The variational refinement algorithm is then used to iteratively refine the first guess STE parameters and meteorological variables. The algorithm has been evaluated across a wide range of scenarios of varying complexity. It has been shown to improve the source parameters for location by several hundred percent (normalized by the

  4. Accurate Estimation of Airborne Ultrasonic Time-of-Flight for Overlapping Echoes

    PubMed Central

    Sarabia, Esther G.; Llata, Jose R.; Robla, Sandra; Torre-Ferrero, Carlos; Oria, Juan P.

    2013-01-01

    In this work, an analysis of the transmission of ultrasonic signals generated by piezoelectric sensors for air applications is presented. Based on this analysis, an ultrasonic response model is obtained for its application to the recognition of objects and structured environments for navigation by autonomous mobile robots. This model enables the analysis of the ultrasonic response that is generated using a pair of sensors in transmitter-receiver configuration using the pulse-echo technique. This is very interesting for recognizing surfaces that simultaneously generate a multiple echo response. This model takes into account the effect of the radiation pattern, the resonant frequency of the sensor, the number of cycles of the excitation pulse, the dynamics of the sensor and the attenuation with distance in the medium. This model has been developed, programmed and verified through a battery of experimental tests. Using this model a new procedure for obtaining accurate time of flight is proposed. This new method is compared with traditional ones, such as threshold or correlation, to highlight its advantages and drawbacks. Finally the advantages of this method are demonstrated for calculating multiple times of flight when the echo is formed by several overlapping echoes. PMID:24284774

  5. Accurate estimation of airborne ultrasonic time-of-flight for overlapping echoes.

    PubMed

    Sarabia, Esther G; Llata, Jose R; Robla, Sandra; Torre-Ferrero, Carlos; Oria, Juan P

    2013-01-01

    In this work, an analysis of the transmission of ultrasonic signals generated by piezoelectric sensors for air applications is presented. Based on this analysis, an ultrasonic response model is obtained for its application to the recognition of objects and structured environments for navigation by autonomous mobile robots. This model enables the analysis of the ultrasonic response that is generated using a pair of sensors in transmitter-receiver configuration using the pulse-echo technique. This is very interesting for recognizing surfaces that simultaneously generate a multiple echo response. This model takes into account the effect of the radiation pattern, the resonant frequency of the sensor, the number of cycles of the excitation pulse, the dynamics of the sensor and the attenuation with distance in the medium. This model has been developed, programmed and verified through a battery of experimental tests. Using this model a new procedure for obtaining accurate time of flight is proposed. This new method is compared with traditional ones, such as threshold or correlation, to highlight its advantages and drawbacks. Finally the advantages of this method are demonstrated for calculating multiple times of flight when the echo is formed by several overlapping echoes. PMID:24284774

  6. Observation model and parameter partials for the JPL VLBI parameter estimation software MODEST, 19 94

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sovers, O. J.; Jacobs, C. S.

    1994-01-01

    This report is a revision of the document Observation Model and Parameter Partials for the JPL VLBI Parameter Estimation Software 'MODEST'---1991, dated August 1, 1991. It supersedes that document and its four previous versions (1983, 1985, 1986, and 1987). A number of aspects of the very long baseline interferometry (VLBI) model were improved from 1991 to 1994. Treatment of tidal effects is extended to model the effects of ocean tides on universal time and polar motion (UTPM), including a default model for nearly diurnal and semidiurnal ocean tidal UTPM variations, and partial derivatives for all (solid and ocean) tidal UTPM amplitudes. The time-honored 'K(sub 1) correction' for solid earth tides has been extended to include analogous frequency-dependent response of five tidal components. Partials of ocean loading amplitudes are now supplied. The Zhu-Mathews-Oceans-Anisotropy (ZMOA) 1990-2 and Kinoshita-Souchay models of nutation are now two of the modeling choices to replace the increasingly inadequate 1980 International Astronomical Union (IAU) nutation series. A rudimentary model of antenna thermal expansion is provided. Two more troposphere mapping functions have been added to the repertoire. Finally, corrections among VLBI observations via the model of Treuhaft and lanyi improve modeling of the dynamic troposphere. A number of minor misprints in Rev. 4 have been corrected.

  7. Dual attitude and parameter estimation of passively magnetically stabilized nano satellites

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burton, R.; Rock, S.; Springmann, J.; Cutler, J.

    2014-01-01

    The attitude determination capability of a nano satellite is limited by a lack of traditional high performance attitude sensors, a result of having small budgets for mass and power. Attitude determination can still be performed on a nano satellite with low fidelity sensors, but an accurate model of the spacecraft attitude dynamics is required. The passive magnetic stabilization systems commonly employed in nano satellites are known to introduce uncertainties in the parameters of the attitude dynamics model that cannot easily be resolved prior to launch. In this paper, a batch estimation problem is formulated that simultaneously solves for the attitude of the spacecraft and performs parameter estimation on the magnetic properties of the magnetic materials using only a measurement of the solar vector. The estimation technique is applied to data from NASA Ames Research Center's O/OREOS nano satellite and the University of Michigan's RAX-1 nano satellite, where clear differences are detected between the magnetic properties as measured before launch and those that fit the observed data. To date this is the first known on-orbit verification of the attitude dynamics model of a passively magnetically stabilized spacecraft.

  8. [Estimation of Fraction of Absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation for Winter Wheat Based on Hyperspectral Characteristic Parameters].

    PubMed

    Zhang, Chao; Cai, Huan-jie; Li, Zhi-jun

    2015-09-01

    Estimating fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) precisely has great importance for detecting vegetation water content, energy and carbon cycle balance. Based on this, ASD FieldSpec 3 and SunScan canopy analyzer were applied to measure the canopy spectral reflectance and photosynthetically active radiation over whole growth stage of winter wheat. Canopy reflectance spectral data was used to build up 24 hyperspectral characteristic parameters and the correlation between FPAR and different spectral characteristic parameters were analyzed to establish the estimation model of FPAR for winter wheat. The results indicated that there were extremely significant correlations (p<0.01) between FPAR and hyperspectral characteristic parameters except the slope of blue edge (Db). The correlation coefficient between FPAR and the ratio of red edge area to blue edge area (VI4) was the highest, reaching at 0.836. Seven spectral parameters with higher correlation coefficient were selected to establish optimal linear and nonlinear estimation models of FPAR, and the best estimating models of FPAR were obtained by accuracy analysis. For the linear model, the inversin model between green edge and FPAR was the best, with R2, RMSE and RRMSE of predicted model reaching 0.679, 0.111 and 20.82% respectively. For the nonlinear model, the inversion model between VI2 (normalized ratio of green peak to red valley of reflectivity) and FPAR was the best, with R2, RMSE and RRMSE of predicted model reaching 0.724, 0.088 and 21.84% for. In order to further improve the precision of the model, the multiple linear regression and BP neural network methods were used to establish models with multiple high spectral parameters BP neural network model (R2=0.906, RMSE=0.08, RRMSE=16.57%) could significantly improve the inversion precision compared with the single variable model. The results show that using hyperspectral characteristic parameters to estimate FPAR of winter wheat is

  9. Estimation of body temperature rhythm based on heart activity parameters in daily life.

    PubMed

    Sooyoung Sim; Heenam Yoon; Hosuk Ryou; Kwangsuk Park

    2014-01-01

    Body temperature contains valuable health related information such as circadian rhythm and menstruation cycle. Also, it was discovered from previous studies that body temperature rhythm in daily life is related with sleep disorders and cognitive performances. However, monitoring body temperature with existing devices during daily life is not easy because they are invasive, intrusive, or expensive. Therefore, the technology which can accurately and nonintrusively monitor body temperature is required. In this study, we developed body temperature estimation model based on heart rate and heart rate variability parameters. Although this work was inspired by previous research, we originally identified that the model can be applied to body temperature monitoring in daily life. Also, we could find out that normalized Mean heart rate (nMHR) and frequency domain parameters of heart rate variability showed better performance than other parameters. Although we should validate the model with more number of subjects and consider additional algorithms to decrease the accumulated estimation error, we could verify the usefulness of this approach. Through this study, we expect that we would be able to monitor core body temperature and circadian rhythm from simple heart rate monitor. Then, we can obtain various health related information derived from daily body temperature rhythm.

  10. Voxel-based registration of simulated and real patient CBCT data for accurate dental implant pose estimation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Moreira, António H. J.; Queirós, Sandro; Morais, Pedro; Rodrigues, Nuno F.; Correia, André Ricardo; Fernandes, Valter; Pinho, A. C. M.; Fonseca, Jaime C.; Vilaça, João. L.

    2015-03-01

    The success of dental implant-supported prosthesis is directly linked to the accuracy obtained during implant's pose estimation (position and orientation). Although traditional impression techniques and recent digital acquisition methods are acceptably accurate, a simultaneously fast, accurate and operator-independent methodology is still lacking. Hereto, an image-based framework is proposed to estimate the patient-specific implant's pose using cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) and prior knowledge of implanted model. The pose estimation is accomplished in a threestep approach: (1) a region-of-interest is extracted from the CBCT data using 2 operator-defined points at the implant's main axis; (2) a simulated CBCT volume of the known implanted model is generated through Feldkamp-Davis-Kress reconstruction and coarsely aligned to the defined axis; and (3) a voxel-based rigid registration is performed to optimally align both patient and simulated CBCT data, extracting the implant's pose from the optimal transformation. Three experiments were performed to evaluate the framework: (1) an in silico study using 48 implants distributed through 12 tridimensional synthetic mandibular models; (2) an in vitro study using an artificial mandible with 2 dental implants acquired with an i-CAT system; and (3) two clinical case studies. The results shown positional errors of 67+/-34μm and 108μm, and angular misfits of 0.15+/-0.08° and 1.4°, for experiment 1 and 2, respectively. Moreover, in experiment 3, visual assessment of clinical data results shown a coherent alignment of the reference implant. Overall, a novel image-based framework for implants' pose estimation from CBCT data was proposed, showing accurate results in agreement with dental prosthesis modelling requirements.

  11. Estimation of uranium migration parameters in sandstone aquifers.

    PubMed

    Malov, A I

    2016-03-01

    The chemical composition and isotopes of carbon and uranium were investigated in groundwater samples that were collected from 16 wells and 2 sources in the Northern Dvina Basin, Northwest Russia. Across the dataset, the temperatures in the groundwater ranged from 3.6 to 6.9 °C, the pH ranged from 7.6 to 9.0, the Eh ranged from -137 to +128 mV, the total dissolved solids (TDS) ranged from 209 to 22,000 mg L(-1), and the dissolved oxygen (DO) ranged from 0 to 9.9 ppm. The (14)C activity ranged from 0 to 69.96 ± 0.69 percent modern carbon (pmC). The uranium content in the groundwater ranged from 0.006 to 16 ppb, and the (234)U:(238)U activity ratio ranged from 1.35 ± 0.21 to 8.61 ± 1.35. The uranium concentration and (234)U:(238)U activity ratio increased from the recharge area to the redox barrier; behind the barrier, the uranium content is minimal. The results were systematized by creating a conceptual model of the Northern Dvina Basin's hydrogeological system. The use of uranium isotope dating in conjunction with radiocarbon dating allowed the determination of important water-rock interaction parameters, such as the dissolution rate:recoil loss factor ratio Rd:p (a(-1)) and the uranium retardation factor:recoil loss factor ratio R:p in the aquifer. The (14)C age of the water was estimated to be between modern and >35,000 years. The (234)U-(238)U age of the water was estimated to be between 260 and 582,000 years. The Rd:p ratio decreases with increasing groundwater residence time in the aquifer from n × 10(-5) to n × 10(-7) a(-1). This finding is observed because the TDS increases in that direction from 0.2 to 9 g L(-1), and accordingly, the mineral saturation indices increase. Relatively high values of R:p (200-1000) characterize aquifers in sandy-clayey sediments from the Late Pleistocene and the deepest parts of the Vendian strata. In samples from the sandstones of the upper part of the Vendian strata, the R:p value is ∼ 24, i.e., sorption processes are

  12. Estimation of uranium migration parameters in sandstone aquifers.

    PubMed

    Malov, A I

    2016-03-01

    The chemical composition and isotopes of carbon and uranium were investigated in groundwater samples that were collected from 16 wells and 2 sources in the Northern Dvina Basin, Northwest Russia. Across the dataset, the temperatures in the groundwater ranged from 3.6 to 6.9 °C, the pH ranged from 7.6 to 9.0, the Eh ranged from -137 to +128 mV, the total dissolved solids (TDS) ranged from 209 to 22,000 mg L(-1), and the dissolved oxygen (DO) ranged from 0 to 9.9 ppm. The (14)C activity ranged from 0 to 69.96 ± 0.69 percent modern carbon (pmC). The uranium content in the groundwater ranged from 0.006 to 16 ppb, and the (234)U:(238)U activity ratio ranged from 1.35 ± 0.21 to 8.61 ± 1.35. The uranium concentration and (234)U:(238)U activity ratio increased from the recharge area to the redox barrier; behind the barrier, the uranium content is minimal. The results were systematized by creating a conceptual model of the Northern Dvina Basin's hydrogeological system. The use of uranium isotope dating in conjunction with radiocarbon dating allowed the determination of important water-rock interaction parameters, such as the dissolution rate:recoil loss factor ratio Rd:p (a(-1)) and the uranium retardation factor:recoil loss factor ratio R:p in the aquifer. The (14)C age of the water was estimated to be between modern and >35,000 years. The (234)U-(238)U age of the water was estimated to be between 260 and 582,000 years. The Rd:p ratio decreases with increasing groundwater residence time in the aquifer from n × 10(-5) to n × 10(-7) a(-1). This finding is observed because the TDS increases in that direction from 0.2 to 9 g L(-1), and accordingly, the mineral saturation indices increase. Relatively high values of R:p (200-1000) characterize aquifers in sandy-clayey sediments from the Late Pleistocene and the deepest parts of the Vendian strata. In samples from the sandstones of the upper part of the Vendian strata, the R:p value is ∼ 24, i.e., sorption processes are

  13. An Energy-Efficient Strategy for Accurate Distance Estimation in Wireless Sensor Networks

    PubMed Central

    Tarrío, Paula; Bernardos, Ana M.; Casar, José R.

    2012-01-01

    In line with recent research efforts made to conceive energy saving protocols and algorithms and power sensitive network architectures, in this paper we propose a transmission strategy to minimize the energy consumption in a sensor network when using a localization technique based on the measurement of the strength (RSS) or the time of arrival (TOA) of the received signal. In particular, we find the transmission power and the packet transmission rate that jointly minimize the total consumed energy, while ensuring at the same time a desired accuracy in the RSS or TOA measurements. We also propose some corrections to these theoretical results to take into account the effects of shadowing and packet loss in the propagation channel. The proposed strategy is shown to be effective in realistic scenarios providing energy savings with respect to other transmission strategies, and also guaranteeing a given accuracy in the distance estimations, which will serve to guarantee a desired accuracy in the localization result. PMID:23202218

  14. Accurate automatic estimation of total intracranial volume: a nuisance variable with less nuisance.

    PubMed

    Malone, Ian B; Leung, Kelvin K; Clegg, Shona; Barnes, Josephine; W