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Sample records for accurate posterior probability

  1. Children's Understanding of Posterior Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Girotto, Vittorio; Gonzalez, Michael

    2008-01-01

    Do young children have a basic intuition of posterior probability? Do they update their decisions and judgments in the light of new evidence? We hypothesized that they can do so extensionally, by considering and counting the various ways in which an event may or may not occur. The results reported in this paper showed that from the age of five,…

  2. The Estimation of Tree Posterior Probabilities Using Conditional Clade Probability Distributions

    PubMed Central

    Larget, Bret

    2013-01-01

    In this article I introduce the idea of conditional independence of separated subtrees as a principle by which to estimate the posterior probability of trees using conditional clade probability distributions rather than simple sample relative frequencies. I describe an algorithm for these calculations and software which implements these ideas. I show that these alternative calculations are very similar to simple sample relative frequencies for high probability trees but are substantially more accurate for relatively low probability trees. The method allows the posterior probability of unsampled trees to be calculated when these trees contain only clades that are in other sampled trees. Furthermore, the method can be used to estimate the total probability of the set of sampled trees which provides a measure of the thoroughness of a posterior sample. [Bayesian phylogenetics; conditional clade distributions; improved accuracy; posterior probabilities of trees.] PMID:23479066

  3. Local estimation of posterior class probabilities to minimize classification errors.

    PubMed

    Guerrero-Curieses, Alicia; Cid-Sueiro, Jesús; Alaiz-Rodríguez, Rocío; Figueiras-Vidal, Aníbal R

    2004-03-01

    Decision theory shows that the optimal decision is a function of the posterior class probabilities. More specifically, in binary classification, the optimal decision is based on the comparison of the posterior probabilities with some threshold. Therefore, the most accurate estimates of the posterior probabilities are required near these decision thresholds. This paper discusses the design of objective functions that provide more accurate estimates of the probability values, taking into account the characteristics of each decision problem. We propose learning algorithms based on the stochastic gradient minimization of these loss functions. We show that the performance of the classifier is improved when these algorithms behave like sample selectors: samples near the decision boundary are the most relevant during learning.

  4. Posterior Probabilities for a Consensus Ordering.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fligner, Michael A.; Verducci, Joseph S.

    1990-01-01

    The concept of consensus ordering is defined, and formulas for exact and approximate posterior probabilities for consensus ordering are developed under the assumption of a generalized Mallows' model with a diffuse conjugate prior. These methods are applied to a data set concerning 98 college students. (SLD)

  5. Multiclass Posterior Probability Twin SVM for Motor Imagery EEG Classification.

    PubMed

    She, Qingshan; Ma, Yuliang; Meng, Ming; Luo, Zhizeng

    2015-01-01

    Motor imagery electroencephalography is widely used in the brain-computer interface systems. Due to inherent characteristics of electroencephalography signals, accurate and real-time multiclass classification is always challenging. In order to solve this problem, a multiclass posterior probability solution for twin SVM is proposed by the ranking continuous output and pairwise coupling in this paper. First, two-class posterior probability model is constructed to approximate the posterior probability by the ranking continuous output techniques and Platt's estimating method. Secondly, a solution of multiclass probabilistic outputs for twin SVM is provided by combining every pair of class probabilities according to the method of pairwise coupling. Finally, the proposed method is compared with multiclass SVM and twin SVM via voting, and multiclass posterior probability SVM using different coupling approaches. The efficacy on the classification accuracy and time complexity of the proposed method has been demonstrated by both the UCI benchmark datasets and real world EEG data from BCI Competition IV Dataset 2a, respectively.

  6. GNSS integer ambiguity validation based on posterior probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wu, Zemin; Bian, Shaofeng

    2015-10-01

    GNSS integer ambiguity validation is considered to be a challenge task for decades. Several kinds of validation tests are developed and widely used in these years, but theoretical basis is their weakness. Ambiguity validation theoretically is an issue of hypothesis test. In the frame of Bayesian hypothesis testing, posterior probability is the canonical standard that statistical decision should be based on. In this contribution, (i) we derive the posterior probability of the fixed ambiguity based on the Bayesian principle and modify it for practice ambiguity validation. (ii) The optimal property of the posterior probability test is proved based on an extended Neyman-Pearson lemma. Since validation failure rate is the issue users most concerned about, (iii) we derive the failure rate upper bound of the posterior probability test, so the user can use the posterior probability test either in the fixed posterior probability or in the fixed failure rate way. Simulated as well as real observed data are used for experimental validations. The results show that (i) the posterior probability test is the most effective within the R-ratio test, difference test, ellipsoidal integer aperture test and posterior probability test, (ii) the posterior probability test is computational efficient and (iii) the failure rate estimation for posterior probability test is useful.

  7. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making.

    PubMed

    Murray, Richard F; Patel, Khushbu; Yee, Alan

    2015-06-01

    Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models' performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods provide new tools

  8. Posterior Probability Matching and Human Perceptual Decision Making

    PubMed Central

    Murray, Richard F.; Patel, Khushbu; Yee, Alan

    2015-01-01

    Probability matching is a classic theory of decision making that was first developed in models of cognition. Posterior probability matching, a variant in which observers match their response probabilities to the posterior probability of each response being correct, is being used increasingly often in models of perception. However, little is known about whether posterior probability matching is consistent with the vast literature on vision and hearing that has developed within signal detection theory. Here we test posterior probability matching models using two tools from detection theory. First, we examine the models’ performance in a two-pass experiment, where each block of trials is presented twice, and we measure the proportion of times that the model gives the same response twice to repeated stimuli. We show that at low performance levels, posterior probability matching models give highly inconsistent responses across repeated presentations of identical trials. We find that practised human observers are more consistent across repeated trials than these models predict, and we find some evidence that less practised observers more consistent as well. Second, we compare the performance of posterior probability matching models on a discrimination task to the performance of a theoretical ideal observer that achieves the best possible performance. We find that posterior probability matching is very inefficient at low-to-moderate performance levels, and that human observers can be more efficient than is ever possible according to posterior probability matching models. These findings support classic signal detection models, and rule out a broad class of posterior probability matching models for expert performance on perceptual tasks that range in complexity from contrast discrimination to symmetry detection. However, our findings leave open the possibility that inexperienced observers may show posterior probability matching behaviour, and our methods provide new tools

  9. An alternative approach to calculate the posterior probability of GNSS integer ambiguity resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xianwen; Wang, Jinling; Gao, Wang

    2017-03-01

    When precise positioning is carried out via GNSS carrier phases, it is important to make use of the property that every ambiguity should be an integer. With the known float solution, any integer vector, which has the same degree of freedom as the ambiguity vector, is the ambiguity vector in probability. For both integer aperture estimation and integer equivariant estimation, it is of great significance to know the posterior probabilities. However, to calculate the posterior probability, we have to face the thorny problem that the equation involves an infinite number of integer vectors. In this paper, using the float solution of ambiguity and its variance matrix, a new approach to rapidly and accurately calculate the posterior probability is proposed. The proposed approach consists of four steps. First, the ambiguity vector is transformed via decorrelation. Second, the range of the adopted integer of every component is directly obtained via formulas, and a finite number of integer vectors are obtained via combination. Third, using the integer vectors, the principal value of posterior probability and the correction factor are worked out. Finally, the posterior probability of every integer vector and its error upper bound can be obtained. In the paper, the detailed process to calculate the posterior probability and the derivations of the formulas are presented. The theory and numerical examples indicate that the proposed approach has the advantages of small amount of computations, high calculation accuracy and strong adaptability.

  10. An alternative approach to calculate the posterior probability of GNSS integer ambiguity resolution

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Xianwen; Wang, Jinling; Gao, Wang

    2016-10-01

    When precise positioning is carried out via GNSS carrier phases, it is important to make use of the property that every ambiguity should be an integer. With the known float solution, any integer vector, which has the same degree of freedom as the ambiguity vector, is the ambiguity vector in probability. For both integer aperture estimation and integer equivariant estimation, it is of great significance to know the posterior probabilities. However, to calculate the posterior probability, we have to face the thorny problem that the equation involves an infinite number of integer vectors. In this paper, using the float solution of ambiguity and its variance matrix, a new approach to rapidly and accurately calculate the posterior probability is proposed. The proposed approach consists of four steps. First, the ambiguity vector is transformed via decorrelation. Second, the range of the adopted integer of every component is directly obtained via formulas, and a finite number of integer vectors are obtained via combination. Third, using the integer vectors, the principal value of posterior probability and the correction factor are worked out. Finally, the posterior probability of every integer vector and its error upper bound can be obtained. In the paper, the detailed process to calculate the posterior probability and the derivations of the formulas are presented. The theory and numerical examples indicate that the proposed approach has the advantages of small amount of computations, high calculation accuracy and strong adaptability.

  11. Learning about Posterior Probability: Do Diagrams and Elaborative Interrogation Help?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clinton, Virginia; Alibali, Martha W.; Nathan, Mitchell J.

    2016-01-01

    To learn from a text, students must make meaningful connections among related ideas in that text. This study examined the effectiveness of two methods of improving connections--elaborative interrogation and diagrams--in written lessons about posterior probability. Undergraduate students (N = 198) read a lesson in one of three questioning…

  12. Posterior Probability and Fluctuation Theorem in Stochastic Processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ohkubo, Jun

    2009-12-01

    A generalization of fluctuation theorems in stochastic processes is proposed. The new theorem is written in terms of posterior probabilities, which are introduced via Bayes’ theorem. In conventional fluctuation theorems, a forward path and its time reversal play an important role, so that a microscopically reversible condition is essential. In contrast, the microscopically reversible condition is not necessary in the new theorem. It is shown that the new theorem recovers various theorems and relations previously known, such as the Gallavotti-Cohen-type fluctuation theorem, the Jarzynski equality, and the Hatano-Sasa relation, when suitable assumptions are employed.

  13. The development of posterior probability models in risk-based integrity modeling.

    PubMed

    Thodi, Premkumar N; Khan, Faisal I; Haddara, Mahmoud R

    2010-03-01

    There is a need for accurate modeling of mechanisms causing material degradation of equipment in process installation, to ensure safety and reliability of the equipment. Degradation mechanisms are stochastic processes. They can be best described using risk-based approaches. Risk-based integrity assessment quantifies the level of risk to which the individual components are subjected and provides means to mitigate them in a safe and cost-effective manner. The uncertainty and variability in structural degradations can be best modeled by probability distributions. Prior probability models provide initial description of the degradation mechanisms. As more inspection data become available, these prior probability models can be revised to obtain posterior probability models, which represent the current system and can be used to predict future failures. In this article, a rejection sampling-based Metropolis-Hastings (M-H) algorithm is used to develop posterior distributions. The M-H algorithm is a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm used to generate a sequence of posterior samples without actually knowing the normalizing constant. Ignoring the transient samples in the generated Markov chain, the steady state samples are rejected or accepted based on an acceptance criterion. To validate the estimated parameters of posterior models, analytical Laplace approximation method is used to compute the integrals involved in the posterior function. Results of the M-H algorithm and Laplace approximations are compared with conjugate pair estimations of known prior and likelihood combinations. The M-H algorithm provides better results and hence it is used for posterior development of the selected priors for corrosion and cracking.

  14. Generalizing Swendsen-Wang to sampling arbitrary posterior probabilities.

    PubMed

    Barbu, Adrian; Zhu, Song-Chun

    2005-08-01

    Many vision tasks can be formulated as graph partition problems that minimize energy functions. For such problems, the Gibbs sampler provides a general solution but is very slow, while other methods, such as Ncut and graph cuts are computationally effective but only work for specific energy forms and are not generally applicable. In this paper, we present a new inference algorithm that generalizes the Swendsen-Wang method to arbitrary probabilities defined on graph partitions. We begin by computing graph edge weights, based on local image features. Then, the algorithm iterates two steps. 1) Graph clustering: It forms connected components by cutting the edges probabilistically based on their weights. 2) Graph relabeling: It selects one connected component and flips probabilistically, the coloring of all vertices in the component simultaneously. Thus, it realizes the split, merge, and regrouping of a "chunk" of the graph, in contrast to Gibbs sampler that flips a single vertex. We prove that this algorithm simulates ergodic and reversible Markov chain jumps in the space of graph partitions and is applicable to arbitrary posterior probabilities or energy functions defined on graphs. We demonstrate the algorithm on two typical problems in computer vision--image segmentation and stereo vision. Experimentally, we show that it is 100-400 times faster in CPU time than the classical Gibbs sampler and 20-40 times faster then the DDMCMC segmentation algorithm. For stereo, we compare performance with graph cuts and belief propagation. We also show that our algorithm can automatically infer generative models and obtain satisfactory results (better than the graphic cuts or belief propagation) in the same amount of time.

  15. Alternative estimate of source distribution in microbial source tracking using posterior probabilities.

    PubMed

    Greenberg, Joshua; Price, Bertram; Ware, Adam

    2010-04-01

    Microbial source tracking (MST) is a procedure used to determine the relative contributions of humans and animals to fecal microbial contamination of surface waters in a given watershed. Studies of MST methodology have focused on optimizing sampling, laboratory, and statistical analysis methods in order to improve the reliability of determining which sources contributed most to surface water fecal contaminant. The usual approach for estimating a source distribution of microbial contamination is to classify water sample microbial isolates into discrete source categories and calculate the proportion of these isolates in each source category. The set of proportions is an estimate of the contaminant source distribution. In this paper we propose and compare an alternative method for estimating a source distribution-averaging posterior probabilities of source identity across isolates. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation covering a wide variety of watershed scenarios to compare the two methods. The results show that averaging source posterior probabilities across isolates leads to more accurate source distribution estimates than proportions that follow classification.

  16. Judging the Probability of Hypotheses Versus the Impact of Evidence: Which Form of Inductive Inference Is More Accurate and Time-Consistent?

    PubMed

    Tentori, Katya; Chater, Nick; Crupi, Vincenzo

    2016-04-01

    Inductive reasoning requires exploiting links between evidence and hypotheses. This can be done focusing either on the posterior probability of the hypothesis when updated on the new evidence or on the impact of the new evidence on the credibility of the hypothesis. But are these two cognitive representations equally reliable? This study investigates this question by comparing probability and impact judgments on the same experimental materials. The results indicate that impact judgments are more consistent in time and more accurate than probability judgments. Impact judgments also predict the direction of errors in probability judgments. These findings suggest that human inductive reasoning relies more on estimating evidential impact than on posterior probability.

  17. Bayes factor and posterior probability: Complementary statistical evidence to p-value.

    PubMed

    Lin, Ruitao; Yin, Guosheng

    2015-07-26

    As a convention, a p-value is often computed in hypothesis testing and compared with the nominal level of 0.05 to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. Although the smaller the p-value, the more significant the statistical test, it is difficult to perceive the p-value in a probability scale and quantify it as the strength of the data against the null hypothesis. In contrast, the Bayesian posterior probability of the null hypothesis has an explicit interpretation of how strong the data support the null. We make a comparison of the p-value and the posterior probability by considering a recent clinical trial. The results show that even when we reject the null hypothesis, there is still a substantial probability (around 20%) that the null is true. Not only should we examine whether the data would have rarely occurred under the null hypothesis, but we also need to know whether the data would be rare under the alternative. As a result, the p-value only provides one side of the information, for which the Bayes factor and posterior probability may offer complementary evidence.

  18. Performance of the Rayleigh task based on the posterior probability of tomographic reconstructions

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, K.M.

    1991-01-01

    We seek the best possible performance of the Rayleigh task in which one must decide whether a perceived object is a pair of Gaussian-blurred points or a blurred line. Two Bayesian reconstruction algorithms are used, the first based on a Gaussian prior-probability distribution with a nonnegativity constraint and the second based on an entropic prior. In both cases, the reconstructions are found that maximize the posterior probability. We compare the performance of the Rayleigh task obtained with two decision variables, the logarithm of the posterior probability ratio and the change in the mean-squared deviation from the reconstruction. The method of evaluation is based on the results of a numerical testing procedure in which the stated discrimination task is carried out on reconstructions of a randomly generated sequence of images. The ability to perform the Rayleigh task is summarized in terms of a discrimination index that is derived from the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve. We find that the use of the posterior probability does not result in better performance of the Rayleigh task than the mean-squared deviation from the reconstruction. 10 refs., 6 figs.

  19. Quantifying diagnostic uncertainty using item response theory: the Posterior Probability of Diagnosis Index.

    PubMed

    Lindhiem, Oliver; Kolko, David J; Yu, Lan

    2013-06-01

    Using traditional Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition, text revision (American Psychiatric Association, 2000) diagnostic criteria, clinicians are forced to make categorical decisions (diagnosis vs. no diagnosis). This forced choice implies that mental and behavioral health disorders are categorical and does not fully characterize varying degrees of uncertainty associated with a particular diagnosis. Using an item response theory (latent trait model) framework, we describe the development of the Posterior Probability of Diagnosis (PPOD) Index, which answers the question: What is the likelihood that a patient meets or exceeds the latent trait threshold for a diagnosis? The PPOD Index is based on the posterior distribution of θ (latent trait score) for each patient's profile of symptoms. The PPOD Index allows clinicians to quantify and communicate the degree of uncertainty associated with each diagnosis in probabilistic terms. We illustrate the advantages of the PPOD Index in a clinical sample (N = 321) of children and adolescents with oppositional defiant disorder.

  20. Land-use/land-cover change detection using change-vector analysis in posterior probability space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Xuehong; Chen, Jin; Shen, Miaogen; Yang, Wei

    2008-10-01

    Land use/land cover change is an important field in global environmental change research. Remote sensing is a valuable data source from which land use/land cover change information can be extracted efficiently. A number of techniques for accomplishing change detection using satellite imagery have been formulated, applied, and evaluated, which can be generally grouped into two types. (1) Those based on spectral classification of the input data such as post-classification comparison and direct two-date classification; and (2) those based on radiometric change between different acquisition dates. The shortage of type 1 is cumulative error in image classification of an individual date. However, radiometric change approaches has a strict requirement for reliable image radiometry. In light of the above mentioned drawbacks of those two types of change detection methods, this paper presents a new method named change vector analysis in posterior probability space (CVAPS). Change-vector analysis (CVA) is one of the most successful radiometric change-based approaches. CVAPS approach incorporates post-classification comparison method and CVA approach, which is expected to inherit the advantages of two traditional methods and avoid their defects at the same time. CVAPS includes the following four steps. (1) Images in different periods are classified by certain classifier which can provide posterior probability output. Then, the posterior probability can be treated as a vector, the dimension of which is equal to the number of classes. (2) A procedure similar with CVA is employed. Compared with traditional CVA, new method analyzes the change vector in posterior probability space instead of spectral feature space. (3) A semiautomatic method, named Double-Window Flexible Pace Search (DFPS), is employed to determine the threshold of change magnitude. (4) Change category is discriminated by cosines of the change vectors. CVAPS approach was applied and validated by a case study of

  1. Binary tree of posterior probability support vector machines for hyperspectral image classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Dongli; Zhou, Yan; Zheng, Jianguo

    2011-01-01

    The problem of hyperspectral remote sensing images classification is revisited by posterior probability support vector machines (PPSVMs). To address the multiclass classification problem, PPSVMs are extended using binary tree structure and boosting with the Fisher ratio as class separability measure. The class pair with larger Fisher ratio separability measure is separated at upper nodes of the binary tree to optimize the structure of the tree and improve the classification accuracy. Two approaches are proposed to select the class pair and construct the binary tree. One is the so-called some-against-rest binary tree of PPSVMs (SBT), in which some classes are separated from the remaining classes at each node considering the Fisher ratio separability measure. For the other approach, named one-against-rest binary tree of PPSVMs (OBT), only one class is separated from the remaining classes at each node. Both approaches need only to train n - 1 (n is the number of classes) binary PPSVM classifiers, while the average convergence performance of SBT and OBT are O(log2n) and O[(n! - 1)/n], respectively. Experimental results show that both approaches obtain classification accuracy if not higher, at least comparable to other multiclass approaches, while using significantly fewer support vectors and reduced testing time.

  2. Laser Raman detection for oral cancer based on an adaptive Gaussian process classification method with posterior probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Zhanwei; Yang, Yongjian; Bai, Yuan; Wang, Lijun; Su, Le; Chen, Yong; Li, Xianchang; Zhou, Xiaodong; Jia, Jun; Shen, Aiguo; Hu, Jiming

    2013-03-01

    The existing methods for early and differential diagnosis of oral cancer are limited due to the unapparent early symptoms and the imperfect imaging examination methods. In this paper, the classification models of oral adenocarcinoma, carcinoma tissues and a control group with just four features are established by utilizing the hybrid Gaussian process (HGP) classification algorithm, with the introduction of the mechanisms of noise reduction and posterior probability. HGP shows much better performance in the experimental results. During the experimental process, oral tissues were divided into three groups, adenocarcinoma (n = 87), carcinoma (n = 100) and the control group (n = 134). The spectral data for these groups were collected. The prospective application of the proposed HGP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to 56.35% and the specificity to about 70.00%, and resulted in a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.36. It is proved that the utilization of HGP in LRS detection analysis for the diagnosis of oral cancer gives accurate results. The prospect of application is also satisfactory.

  3. Reweighting Data in the Spirit of Tukey: Using Bayesian Posterior Probabilities as Rasch Residuals for Studying Misfit

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dardick, William R.; Mislevy, Robert J.

    2016-01-01

    A new variant of the iterative "data = fit + residual" data-analytical approach described by Mosteller and Tukey is proposed and implemented in the context of item response theory psychometric models. Posterior probabilities from a Bayesian mixture model of a Rasch item response theory model and an unscalable latent class are expressed…

  4. Posterior probability of linkage analysis of autism dataset identifies linkage to chromosome 16

    PubMed Central

    Wassink, Thomas H.; Vieland, Veronica J.; Sheffield, Val C.; Bartlett, Christopher W.; Goedken, Rhinda; Childress, Deborah; Piven, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    Objective To apply phenotypic and statistical methods designed to account for heterogeneity to linkage analyses of the autism Collaborative Linkage Study of Autism (CLSA) affected sibling pair families. Method The CLSA contains two sets of 57 families each; Set 1 has been analyzed previously, whereas this study presents the first analyses of Set 2. The two sets were analyzed independently, and were further split based on the degree of phrase speech delay in the siblings. Linkage analysis was carried out using the posterior probability of linkage (PPL), a Bayesian statistic that provides a mathematically rigorous mechanism for combining linkage evidence across multiple samples. Results Two-point PPLs from Set 1 led to the follow-up genotyping of 18 markers around linkage peaks on 1q, 13p, 13q, 16q, and 17q in both sets of families. Multipoint PPLs were then calculated for the entire CLSA sample. These analyses identified four regions with at least modest evidence in support of linkage: 1q at 173 cM, PPL = 0.12; 13p at 21 cM, PPL = 0.16; 16q at 63 cM, PPL= 0.36; Xq at 40 cM, PPL = 0.11. Conclusion We find strengthened evidence for linkage of autism to chromosomes 1q, 13p, 16q, and Xq, and diminished evidence for linkage to 7q and 13q. The verity of these findings will be tested by continuing to update our PPL analyses with data from additional autism datasets. PMID:18349700

  5. MLIP: using multiple processors to compute the posterior probability of linkage

    PubMed Central

    Govil, Manika; Segre, Alberto M; Vieland, Veronica J

    2008-01-01

    Background Localization of complex traits by genetic linkage analysis may involve exploration of a vast multidimensional parameter space. The posterior probability of linkage (PPL), a class of statistics for complex trait genetic mapping in humans, is designed to model the trait model complexity represented by the multidimensional parameter space in a mathematically rigorous fashion. However, the method requires the evaluation of integrals with no functional form, making it difficult to compute, and thus further test, develop and apply. This paper describes MLIP, a multiprocessor two-point genetic linkage analysis system that supports statistical calculations, such as the PPL, based on the full parameter space implicit in the linkage likelihood. Results The fundamental question we address here is whether the use of additional processors effectively reduces total computation time for a PPL calculation. We use a variety of data – both simulated and real – to explore the question "how close can we get?" to linear speedup. Empirical results of our study show that MLIP does significantly speed up two-point log-likelihood ratio calculations over a grid space of model parameters. Conclusion Observed performance of the program is dependent on characteristics of the data including granularity of the parameter grid space being explored and pedigree size and structure. While work continues to further optimize performance, the current version of the program can already be used to efficiently compute the PPL. Thanks to MLIP, full multidimensional genome scans are now routinely being completed at our centers with runtimes on the order of days, not months or years. PMID:18541055

  6. Probable atypical cat scratch disease presenting as isolated posterior pancreatic duodenal lymphadenitis and abdominal pain.

    PubMed

    Dzelalija, B; Petrovec, M; Avsic-Zupanc, T

    2001-09-15

    We report a case involving a 15-year-old girl with atypical, clinically unsuspected cat scratch disease (CSD) presenting as isolated posterior pancreatic duodenal lymphadenitis, fever, and abdominal pain. The serological, abdominal ultrasonographic, and CT findings, as well as clinical and epidemiological data, indicate that B. henselae was likely an etiologic agent of CSD in our patient.

  7. Building a Model Using Bayesian Network for Assessment of Posterior Probabilities of Falling From Height at Workplaces

    PubMed Central

    Alizadeh, Seyed Shamseddin; Mortazavi, Seyed Bagher; Sepehri, Mohammad Mehdi

    2014-01-01

    Background: Falls from height are one of the main causes of fatal occupational injuries. The objective of this study was to present a model for estimating occurrence probability of falling from height. Methods: In order to make a list of factors affecting falls, we used four expert group's judgment, literature review and an available database. Then the validity and reliability of designed questionnaire were determined and Bayesian networks were built. The built network, nodes and curves were quantified. For network sensitivity analysis, four types of analysis carried out. Results: A Bayesian network for assessment of posterior probabilities of falling from height proposed. The presented Bayesian network model shows the interrelationships among 37 causes affecting the falling from height and can calculate its posterior probabilities. The most important factors affecting falling were Non-compliance with safety instructions for work at height (0.127), Lack of safety equipment for work at height (0.094) and Lack of safety instructions for work at height (0.071) respectively. Conclusion: The proposed Bayesian network used to determine how different causes could affect the falling from height at work. The findings of this study can be used to decide on the falling accident prevention programs. PMID:25648498

  8. Adapting the posterior probability of diagnosis index to enhance evidence-based screening: an application to ADHD in primary care.

    PubMed

    Lindhiem, Oliver; Yu, Lan; Grasso, Damion J; Kolko, David J; Youngstrom, Eric A

    2015-04-01

    This study adapts the Posterior Probability of Diagnosis (PPOD) Index for use with screening data. The original PPOD Index, designed for use in the context of comprehensive diagnostic assessments, is overconfident when applied to screening data. To correct for this overconfidence, we describe a simple method for adjusting the PPOD Index to improve its calibration when used for screening. Specifically, we compare the adjusted PPOD Index to the original index and naïve Bayes probability estimates on two dimensions of accuracy, discrimination and calibration, using a clinical sample of children and adolescents (N = 321) whose caregivers completed the Vanderbilt Assessment Scale to screen for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder and who subsequently completed a comprehensive diagnostic assessment. Results indicated that the adjusted PPOD Index, original PPOD Index, and naïve Bayes probability estimates are comparable using traditional measures of accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve), but the adjusted PPOD Index showed superior calibration. We discuss the importance of calibration for screening and diagnostic support tools when applied to individual patients.

  9. Accurate measurement of the sticking time and sticking probability of Rb atoms on a polydimethylsiloxane coating

    SciTech Connect

    Atutov, S. N. Plekhanov, A. I.

    2015-01-15

    We present the results of a systematic study of Knudsen’s flow of Rb atoms in cylindrical capillary cells coated with a polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) compound. The purpose of the investigation is to determine the characterization of the coating in terms of the sticking probability and sticking time of Rb on the two types of coating of high and medium viscosities. We report the measurement of the sticking probability of a Rb atom to the coating equal to 4.3 × 10{sup −5}, which corresponds to the number of bounces 2.3 × 10{sup 4} at room temperature. These parameters are the same for the two kinds of PDMS used. We find that at room temperature, the respective sticking times for high-viscosity and medium-viscosity PDMS are 22 ± 3 μs and 49 ± 6 μs. These sticking times are about million times larger than the sticking time derived from the surface Rb atom adsorption energy and temperature of the coating. A tentative explanation of this surprising result is proposed based on the bulk diffusion of the atoms that collide with the surface and penetrate inside the coating. The results can be important in many resonance cell experiments, such as the efficient magnetooptical trapping of rare elements or radioactive isotopes and in experiments on the light-induced drift effect.

  10. Accurate Estimation of the Entropy of Rotation-Translation Probability Distributions.

    PubMed

    Fogolari, Federico; Dongmo Foumthuim, Cedrix Jurgal; Fortuna, Sara; Soler, Miguel Angel; Corazza, Alessandra; Esposito, Gennaro

    2016-01-12

    The estimation of rotational and translational entropies in the context of ligand binding has been the subject of long-time investigations. The high dimensionality (six) of the problem and the limited amount of sampling often prevent the required resolution to provide accurate estimates by the histogram method. Recently, the nearest-neighbor distance method has been applied to the problem, but the solutions provided either address rotation and translation separately, therefore lacking correlations, or use a heuristic approach. Here we address rotational-translational entropy estimation in the context of nearest-neighbor-based entropy estimation, solve the problem numerically, and provide an exact and an approximate method to estimate the full rotational-translational entropy.

  11. Fast and accurate probability density estimation in large high dimensional astronomical datasets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gupta, Pramod; Connolly, Andrew J.; Gardner, Jeffrey P.

    2015-01-01

    Astronomical surveys will generate measurements of hundreds of attributes (e.g. color, size, shape) on hundreds of millions of sources. Analyzing these large, high dimensional data sets will require efficient algorithms for data analysis. An example of this is probability density estimation that is at the heart of many classification problems such as the separation of stars and quasars based on their colors. Popular density estimation techniques use binning or kernel density estimation. Kernel density estimation has a small memory footprint but often requires large computational resources. Binning has small computational requirements but usually binning is implemented with multi-dimensional arrays which leads to memory requirements which scale exponentially with the number of dimensions. Hence both techniques do not scale well to large data sets in high dimensions. We present an alternative approach of binning implemented with hash tables (BASH tables). This approach uses the sparseness of data in the high dimensional space to ensure that the memory requirements are small. However hashing requires some extra computation so a priori it is not clear if the reduction in memory requirements will lead to increased computational requirements. Through an implementation of BASH tables in C++ we show that the additional computational requirements of hashing are negligible. Hence this approach has small memory and computational requirements. We apply our density estimation technique to photometric selection of quasars using non-parametric Bayesian classification and show that the accuracy of the classification is same as the accuracy of earlier approaches. Since the BASH table approach is one to three orders of magnitude faster than the earlier approaches it may be useful in various other applications of density estimation in astrostatistics.

  12. A three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability method for InSAR data inversion of coseismic rupture with application to four recent large earthquakes in Asia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, J.; Shen, Z.; Burgmann, R.; Liang, F.

    2012-12-01

    We develop a three-step Maximum-A-Posterior probability (MAP) method for coseismic rupture inversion, which aims at maximizing the a posterior probability density function (PDF) of elastic solutions of earthquake rupture. The method originates from the Fully Bayesian Inversion (FBI) and the Mixed linear-nonlinear Bayesian inversion (MBI) methods , shares the same a posterior PDF with them and keeps most of their merits, while overcoming its convergence difficulty when large numbers of low quality data are used and improving the convergence rate greatly using optimization procedures. A highly efficient global optimization algorithm, Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA), is used to search for the maximum posterior probability in the first step. The non-slip parameters are determined by the global optimization method, and the slip parameters are inverted for using the least squares method without positivity constraint initially, and then damped to physically reasonable range. This step MAP inversion brings the inversion close to 'true' solution quickly and jumps over local maximum regions in high-dimensional parameter space. The second step inversion approaches the 'true' solution further with positivity constraints subsequently applied on slip parameters using the Monte Carlo Inversion (MCI) technique, with all parameters obtained from step one as the initial solution. Then the slip artifacts are eliminated from slip models in the third step MAP inversion with fault geometry parameters fixed. We first used a designed model with 45 degree dipping angle and oblique slip, and corresponding synthetic InSAR data sets to validate the efficiency and accuracy of method. We then applied the method on four recent large earthquakes in Asia, namely the 2010 Yushu, China earthquake, the 2011 Burma earthquake, the 2011 New Zealand earthquake and the 2008 Qinghai, China earthquake, and compared our results with those results from other groups. Our results show the effectiveness of

  13. Prestack inversion based on anisotropic Markov random field-maximum posterior probability inversion and its application to identify shale gas sweet spots

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, Kang-Ning; Sun, Zan-Dong; Dong, Ning

    2015-12-01

    Economic shale gas production requires hydraulic fracture stimulation to increase the formation permeability. Hydraulic fracturing strongly depends on geomechanical parameters such as Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. Fracture-prone sweet spots can be predicted by prestack inversion, which is an ill-posed problem; thus, regularization is needed to obtain unique and stable solutions. To characterize gas-bearing shale sedimentary bodies, elastic parameter variations are regarded as an anisotropic Markov random field. Bayesian statistics are adopted for transforming prestack inversion to the maximum posterior probability. Two energy functions for the lateral and vertical directions are used to describe the distribution, and the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior probability of elastic parameters. Finally, the inversion yields clear geological boundaries, high vertical resolution, and reasonable lateral continuity using the conjugate gradient method to minimize the objective function. Antinoise and imaging ability of the method were tested using synthetic and real data.

  14. Probability distributions of the logarithm of inter-spike intervals yield accurate entropy estimates from small datasets.

    PubMed

    Dorval, Alan D

    2008-08-15

    The maximal information that the spike train of any neuron can pass on to subsequent neurons can be quantified as the neuronal firing pattern entropy. Difficulties associated with estimating entropy from small datasets have proven an obstacle to the widespread reporting of firing pattern entropies and more generally, the use of information theory within the neuroscience community. In the most accessible class of entropy estimation techniques, spike trains are partitioned linearly in time and entropy is estimated from the probability distribution of firing patterns within a partition. Ample previous work has focused on various techniques to minimize the finite dataset bias and standard deviation of entropy estimates from under-sampled probability distributions on spike timing events partitioned linearly in time. In this manuscript we present evidence that all distribution-based techniques would benefit from inter-spike intervals being partitioned in logarithmic time. We show that with logarithmic partitioning, firing rate changes become independent of firing pattern entropy. We delineate the entire entropy estimation process with two example neuronal models, demonstrating the robust improvements in bias and standard deviation that the logarithmic time method yields over two widely used linearly partitioned time approaches.

  15. Assessing Goodness of Fit in Item Response Theory with Nonparametric Models: A Comparison of Posterior Probabilities and Kernel-Smoothing Approaches

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sueiro, Manuel J.; Abad, Francisco J.

    2011-01-01

    The distance between nonparametric and parametric item characteristic curves has been proposed as an index of goodness of fit in item response theory in the form of a root integrated squared error index. This article proposes to use the posterior distribution of the latent trait as the nonparametric model and compares the performance of an index…

  16. Normal Tissue Complication Probability Estimation by the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman Method Does Not Accurately Predict Spinal Cord Tolerance to Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Daly, Megan E.; Luxton, Gary; Choi, Clara Y.H.; Gibbs, Iris C.; Chang, Steven D.; Adler, John R.; Soltys, Scott G.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To determine whether normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) analyses of the human spinal cord by use of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, supplemented by linear-quadratic modeling to account for the effect of fractionation, predict the risk of myelopathy from stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: From November 2001 to July 2008, 24 spinal hemangioblastomas in 17 patients were treated with SRS. Of the tumors, 17 received 1 fraction with a median dose of 20 Gy (range, 18-30 Gy) and 7 received 20 to 25 Gy in 2 or 3 sessions, with cord maximum doses of 22.7 Gy (range, 17.8-30.9 Gy) and 22.0 Gy (range, 20.2-26.6 Gy), respectively. By use of conventional values for {alpha}/{beta}, volume parameter n, 50% complication probability dose TD{sub 50}, and inverse slope parameter m, a computationally simplified implementation of the LKB model was used to calculate the biologically equivalent uniform dose and NTCP for each treatment. Exploratory calculations were performed with alternate values of {alpha}/{beta} and n. Results: In this study 1 case (4%) of myelopathy occurred. The LKB model using radiobiological parameters from Emami and the logistic model with parameters from Schultheiss overestimated complication rates, predicting 13 complications (54%) and 18 complications (75%), respectively. An increase in the volume parameter (n), to assume greater parallel organization, improved the predictive value of the models. Maximum-likelihood LKB fitting of {alpha}/{beta} and n yielded better predictions (0.7 complications), with n = 0.023 and {alpha}/{beta} = 17.8 Gy. Conclusions: The spinal cord tolerance to the dosimetry of SRS is higher than predicted by the LKB model using any set of accepted parameters. Only a high {alpha}/{beta} value in the LKB model and only a large volume effect in the logistic model with Schultheiss data could explain the low number of complications observed. This finding emphasizes that radiobiological models

  17. Posterior sampling with improved efficiency

    SciTech Connect

    Hanson, K.M.; Cunningham, G.S.

    1998-12-01

    The Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique provides a means to generate a random sequence of model realizations that sample the posterior probability distribution of a Bayesian analysis. That sequence may be used to make inferences about the model uncertainties that derive from measurement uncertainties. This paper presents an approach to improving the efficiency of the Metropolis approach to MCMC by incorporating an approximation to the covariance matrix of the posterior distribution. The covariance matrix is approximated using the update formula from the BFGS quasi-Newton optimization algorithm. Examples are given for uncorrelated and correlated multidimensional Gaussian posterior distributions.

  18. Probability and radical behaviorism

    PubMed Central

    Espinosa, James M.

    1992-01-01

    The concept of probability appears to be very important in the radical behaviorism of Skinner. Yet, it seems that this probability has not been accurately defined and is still ambiguous. I give a strict, relative frequency interpretation of probability and its applicability to the data from the science of behavior as supplied by cumulative records. Two examples of stochastic processes are given that may model the data from cumulative records that result under conditions of continuous reinforcement and extinction, respectively. PMID:22478114

  19. Percutaneous Posterior Calcaneal Osteotomy.

    PubMed

    Lui, Tun Hing

    2015-01-01

    Different types of posterior calcaneal osteotomy are used for calcaneal realignment in the management of hindfoot deformity. We describe a percutaneous technique of posterior calcaneal osteotomy that can be either a Dwyer-type closing wedge osteotomy or displacement osteotomy.

  20. Estimating Prior Model Probabilities Using an Entropy Principle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ye, M.; Meyer, P. D.; Neuman, S. P.; Pohlmann, K.

    2004-12-01

    Considering conceptual model uncertainty is an important process in environmental uncertainty/risk analyses. Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) (Hoeting et al., 1999) and its Maximum Likelihood version, MLBMA, (Neuman, 2003) jointly assess predictive uncertainty of competing alternative models to avoid bias and underestimation of uncertainty caused by relying on one single model. These methods provide posterior distribution (or, equivalently, leading moments) of quantities of interests for decision-making. One important step of these methods is to specify prior probabilities of alternative models for the calculation of posterior model probabilities. This problem, however, has not been satisfactorily resolved and equally likely prior model probabilities are usually accepted as a neutral choice. Ye et al. (2004) have shown that whereas using equally likely prior model probabilities has led to acceptable geostatistical estimates of log air permeability data from fractured unsaturated tuff at the Apache Leap Research Site (ALRS) in Arizona, identifying more accurate prior probabilities can improve these estimates. In this paper we present a new methodology to evaluate prior model probabilities by maximizing Shannon's entropy with restrictions postulated a priori based on model plausibility relationships. It yields optimum prior model probabilities conditional on prior information used to postulate the restrictions. The restrictions and corresponding prior probabilities can be modified as more information becomes available. The proposed method is relatively easy to use in practice as it is generally less difficult for experts to postulate relationships between models than to specify numerical prior model probability values. Log score, mean square prediction error (MSPE) and mean absolute predictive error (MAPE) criteria consistently show that applying our new method to the ALRS data reduces geostatistical estimation errors provided relationships between models are

  1. Asteroidal collision probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bottke, W. F.; Greenberg, R.

    1993-05-01

    Several past calculations of collision probabilities between pairs of bodies on independent orbits have yielded inconsistent results. We review the methodologies and identify their various problems. Greenberg's (1982) collision probability formalism (now with a corrected symmetry assumption) is equivalent to Wetherill's (1967) approach, except that it includes a way to avoid singularities near apsides. That method shows that the procedure by Namiki and Binzel (1991) was accurate for those cases where singularities did not arise.

  2. Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaynes, E. T.; Bretthorst, G. Larry

    2003-04-01

    Foreword; Preface; Part I. Principles and Elementary Applications: 1. Plausible reasoning; 2. The quantitative rules; 3. Elementary sampling theory; 4. Elementary hypothesis testing; 5. Queer uses for probability theory; 6. Elementary parameter estimation; 7. The central, Gaussian or normal distribution; 8. Sufficiency, ancillarity, and all that; 9. Repetitive experiments, probability and frequency; 10. Physics of 'random experiments'; Part II. Advanced Applications: 11. Discrete prior probabilities, the entropy principle; 12. Ignorance priors and transformation groups; 13. Decision theory: historical background; 14. Simple applications of decision theory; 15. Paradoxes of probability theory; 16. Orthodox methods: historical background; 17. Principles and pathology of orthodox statistics; 18. The Ap distribution and rule of succession; 19. Physical measurements; 20. Model comparison; 21. Outliers and robustness; 22. Introduction to communication theory; References; Appendix A. Other approaches to probability theory; Appendix B. Mathematical formalities and style; Appendix C. Convolutions and cumulants.

  3. Lexicographic Probability, Conditional Probability, and Nonstandard Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2009-11-11

    the following conditions: CP1. µ(U |U) = 1 if U ∈ F ′. CP2 . µ(V1 ∪ V2 |U) = µ(V1 |U) + µ(V2 |U) if V1 ∩ V2 = ∅, U ∈ F ′, and V1, V2 ∈ F . CP3. µ(V |U...µ(V |X)× µ(X |U) if V ⊆ X ⊆ U , U,X ∈ F ′, V ∈ F . Note that it follows from CP1 and CP2 that µ(· |U) is a probability measure on (W,F) (and, in... CP2 hold. This is easily seen to determine µ. Moreover, µ vaciously satisfies CP3, since there do not exist distinct sets U and X in F ′ such that U

  4. Improved Log(gf) Values for Lines of Ti I and Abundance Determinations in the Photospheres of the Sun and Metal-Poor Star HD 84937 (Accurate Transition Probabilities for Ti I)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, J. E.; Guzman, A.; Wood, M. P.; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J.

    2013-04-01

    New atomic transition probability measurements for 948 lines of Ti I are reported. Branching fractions from Fourier transform spectra and from spectra recorded using a 3 m echelle spectrometer are combined with published radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements to determine these transition probabilities. Generally good agreement is found in comparisons to the NIST Atomic Spectra Database. The new Ti I data are applied to re-determine the Ti abundance in the photospheres of the Sun and metal-poor star HD 84937 using many lines covering a range of wavelength and excitation potential to explore possible non-local thermal equilibrium effects. The variation of relative Ti/Fe abundance with metallicity in metal-poor stars observed in earlier studies is supported in this study.

  5. IMPROVED log(gf) VALUES FOR LINES OF Ti I AND ABUNDANCE DETERMINATIONS IN THE PHOTOSPHERES OF THE SUN AND METAL-POOR STAR HD 84937 (ACCURATE TRANSITION PROBABILITIES FOR Ti I)

    SciTech Connect

    Lawler, J. E.; Guzman, A.; Wood, M. P.; Sneden, C.; Cowan, J. J. E-mail: adrianaguzman2014@u.northwestern.edu E-mail: chris@verdi.as.utexas.edu

    2013-04-01

    New atomic transition probability measurements for 948 lines of Ti I are reported. Branching fractions from Fourier transform spectra and from spectra recorded using a 3 m echelle spectrometer are combined with published radiative lifetimes from laser-induced fluorescence measurements to determine these transition probabilities. Generally good agreement is found in comparisons to the NIST Atomic Spectra Database. The new Ti I data are applied to re-determine the Ti abundance in the photospheres of the Sun and metal-poor star HD 84937 using many lines covering a range of wavelength and excitation potential to explore possible non-local thermal equilibrium effects. The variation of relative Ti/Fe abundance with metallicity in metal-poor stars observed in earlier studies is supported in this study.

  6. Congenital basis of posterior fossa anomalies

    PubMed Central

    Cotes, Claudia; Bonfante, Eliana; Lazor, Jillian; Jadhav, Siddharth; Caldas, Maria; Swischuk, Leonard

    2015-01-01

    The classification of posterior fossa congenital anomalies has been a controversial topic. Advances in genetics and imaging have allowed a better understanding of the embryologic development of these abnormalities. A new classification schema correlates the embryologic, morphologic, and genetic bases of these anomalies in order to better distinguish and describe them. Although they provide a better understanding of the clinical aspects and genetics of these disorders, it is crucial for the radiologist to be able to diagnose the congenital posterior fossa anomalies based on their morphology, since neuroimaging is usually the initial step when these disorders are suspected. We divide the most common posterior fossa congenital anomalies into two groups: 1) hindbrain malformations, including diseases with cerebellar or vermian agenesis, aplasia or hypoplasia and cystic posterior fossa anomalies; and 2) cranial vault malformations. In addition, we will review the embryologic development of the posterior fossa and, from the perspective of embryonic development, will describe the imaging appearance of congenital posterior fossa anomalies. Knowledge of the developmental bases of these malformations facilitates detection of the morphological changes identified on imaging, allowing accurate differentiation and diagnosis of congenital posterior fossa anomalies. PMID:26246090

  7. Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Axelrod, M

    2005-08-18

    In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.

  8. Posterior Cruciate Ligament Injury

    MedlinePlus

    ... ACL connect your thighbone (femur) to your shinbone (tibia). If either ligament is torn, it might cause ... ligaments connect the thighbone (femur) to the shinbone (tibia). The anterior and posterior cruciate ligaments form an " ...

  9. Posterior ankle impingement syndrome.

    PubMed

    Maquirriain, Javier

    2005-10-01

    Posterior ankle impingement syndrome is a clinical disorder characterized by posterior ankle pain that occurs in forced plantar flexion. The pain may be acute as a result of trauma or chronic from repetitive stress. Pathology of the os trigonum-talar process is the most common cause of this syndrome, but it also may result from flexor hallucis longus tenosynovitis, ankle osteochondritis, subtalar joint disease, and fracture. Patients usually report chronic or recurrent posterior ankle pain caused or exacerbated by forced plantar flexion or push-off maneuvers, such as may occur during dancing, kicking, or downhill running. Diagnosis of posterior ankle impingement syndrome is based primarily on clinical history and physical examination. Radiography, scintigraphy, computed tomography, and magnetic resonance imaging depict associated bone and soft-tissue abnormalities. Symptoms typically improve with nonsurgical management, but surgery may be required in refractory cases.

  10. Naive Probability: A Mental Model Theory of Extensional Reasoning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson-Laird, P. N.; Legrenzi, Paolo; Girotto, Vittorio; Legrenzi, Maria Sonino; Caverni, Jean-Paul

    1999-01-01

    Outlines a theory of naive probability in which individuals who are unfamiliar with the probability calculus can infer the probabilities of events in an "extensional" way. The theory accommodates reasoning based on numerical premises, and explains how naive reasoners can infer posterior probabilities without relying on Bayes's theorem.…

  11. Huge interparietal posterior fontanel meningohydroencephalocele

    PubMed Central

    Dos Santos, Manuel Filipe Dias; de Santa Barbara, Rita de Cassia

    2015-01-01

    Congenital encephalocele is a neural tube defect characterized by a sac-like protrusion of the brain, meninges, and other intracranial structures through the skull, which is caused by an embryonic development abnormality. The most common location is at the occipital bone, and its incidence varies according to different world regions. We report a case of an 1-month and 7-day-old male child with a huge interparietal-posterior fontanel meningohydroencephalocele, a rare occurrence. Physical examination and volumetric computed tomography were diagnostic. The encephalocele was surgically resected. Intradural and extradural approaches were performed; the bone defect was not primarily closed. Two days after surgery, the patient developed hydrocephaly requiring ventriculoperitoneal shunting. The surgical treatment of the meningohydroencephalocele of the interparietal-posterior fontanel may be accompanied by technical challenges and followed by complications due to the presence of large blood vessels under the overlying skin. In these cases, huge sacs herniate through large bone defects including meninges, brain, and blood vessels. The latter present communication with the superior sagittal sinus and ventricular system. A favorable surgical outcome generally follows an accurate strategy taking into account individual features of the lesion. PMID:26484324

  12. The tibialis posterior tendon.

    PubMed

    Lhoste-Trouilloud, A

    2012-02-01

    The tibialis posterior tendon is the largest and anteriormost tendon in the medial ankle. It produces plantar flexion and supination of the ankle and stabilizes the plantar vault. Sonographic assessment of this tendon is done with high-frequency, linear-array transducers; an optimal examination requires transverse retromalleolar, longitudinal retromalleolar, and distal longitudinal scans, as well as dynamic studies. Disorders of the posterior tibial tendon include chronic tendinopathy with progressive rupture, tenosynovitis, acute rupture, dislocation and instability, enthesopathies. The most common lesion is a progressive "chewing gum" lesion that develops in a setting of chronic tendinopathy; it is usually seen in overweight women over 50 years of age with valgus flat feet. Medial ankle pain must also be carefully investigated, and the presence of instability assessed with dynamic maneuvers (forced inversion, or dorsiflexion) of the foot. Sonography plays an important role in the investigation of disorders involving the posterior tibial tendon.

  13. Posterior Fossa Tumors.

    PubMed

    Brandão, Lara A; Young Poussaint, Tina

    2017-02-01

    Pediatric brain tumors are the leading cause of death from solid tumors in childhood. The most common posterior fossa tumors in children are medulloblastoma, atypical teratoid/rhabdoid tumor, cerebellar pilocytic astrocytoma, ependymoma, and brainstem glioma. Location, and imaging findings on computed tomography (CT) and conventional MR (cMR) imaging may provide important clues to the most likely diagnosis. Moreover, information obtained from advanced MR imaging techniques increase diagnostic confidence and help distinguish between different histologic tumor types. Here we discuss the most common posterior fossa tumors in children, including typical imaging findings on CT, cMR imaging, and advanced MR imaging studies.

  14. Posterior crossbites in children.

    PubMed

    Zhu, J F; Crevoisier, R; King, D L; Henry, R; Mills, C M

    1996-11-01

    Posterior crossbite, the most common malocclusion in young children, can be caused by a variety of skeletal, muscular, or dental factors. This condition produces insufficient maxillary arch width and is frequently associated with various oral sucking and postural habits. If left untreated, this problem can result in adverse skeletal growth changes. Various mechanical treatment modalities designed to expand the posterior maxillary arch width are available to correct this problem. The appropriate treatment method depends on the patient's age and level of cooperation as well as the determined etiology of the constriction.

  15. Tibialis Posterior Tendon Entrapment Within Posterior Malleolar Fracture Fragment.

    PubMed

    Fantry, Amanda; Lareau, Craig; Vopat, Bryan; Blankenhorn, Brad

    2016-01-01

    Management of posterior malleolus fractures continues to be controversial, with respect to both need for fixation and fixation methods. Fixation methods include an open posterior approach to the ankle as well as percutaneous reduction and fixation with or without arthroscopy for visualization of the articular surface. Plain radiographs are unreliable in identifying fracture pattern and intraoperative reduction, making arthroscopy a valuable adjunct to posterior malleolus fracture management. In this article, we report a case of tibialis posterior tendon entrapment within a posterior malleolus fracture, as identified by arthroscopy and managed with open reduction. Tibialis posterior tendon entrapment within a posterior malleolus has not been previously reported. Ankle arthroscopy for posterior malleolus fractures provides an opportunity to identify soft-tissue or tendinous entrapment, articular surface reduction, and articular cartilage injuries unlikely to be identified with fluoroscopy alone and should be considered in reduction and fixation of posterior malleolus fractures.

  16. An Alternative Version of Conditional Probabilities and Bayes' Rule: An Application of Probability Logic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Satake, Eiki; Amato, Philip P.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents an alternative version of formulas of conditional probabilities and Bayes' rule that demonstrate how the truth table of elementary mathematical logic applies to the derivations of the conditional probabilities of various complex, compound statements. This new approach is used to calculate the prior and posterior probabilities…

  17. Posterior Circulation Ischemic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Go, Steven

    2015-01-01

    Approximately 20-25% of all acute strokes occur in the posterior circulation. These strokes can be rather difficult to diagnose because they present in such diverse ways, and can easily be mistaken for more benign entities. A fastidious history, physical exam, high clinical suspicion, and appropriate use of imaging are essential for the emergency physician to properly diagnose and treat these patients. Expert stroke neurologist consultation should be utilized liberally.

  18. Pig Data and Bayesian Inference on Multinomial Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kern, John C.

    2006-01-01

    Bayesian inference on multinomial probabilities is conducted based on data collected from the game Pass the Pigs[R]. Prior information on these probabilities is readily available from the instruction manual, and is easily incorporated in a Dirichlet prior. Posterior analysis of the scoring probabilities quantifies the discrepancy between empirical…

  19. Posterior interosseous neuropathy

    PubMed Central

    Kele, Henrich; Xia, Annie; Weiler, Markus; Schwarz, Daniel; Bendszus, Martin; Pham, Mirko

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To investigate the spatial pattern of lesion dispersion in posterior interosseous neuropathy syndrome (PINS) by high-resolution magnetic resonance neurography. Methods: This prospective study was approved by the local ethics committee and written informed consent was obtained from all patients. In 19 patients with PINS and 20 healthy controls, a standardized magnetic resonance neurography protocol at 3-tesla was performed with coverage of the upper arm and elbow (T2-weighted fat-saturated: echo time/repetition time 52/7,020 milliseconds, in-plane resolution 0.27 × 0.27 mm2). Lesion classification of the radial nerve trunk and its deep branch (which becomes the posterior interosseous nerve) was performed by visual rating and additional quantitative analysis of normalized T2 signal of radial nerve voxels. Results: Of 19 patients with PINS, only 3 (16%) had a focal neuropathy at the entry of the radial nerve deep branch into the supinator muscle at elbow/forearm level. The other 16 (84%) had proximal radial nerve lesions at the upper arm level with a predominant lesion focus 8.3 ± 4.6 cm proximal to the humeroradial joint. Most of these lesions (75%) followed a specific somatotopic pattern, involving only those fascicles that would form the posterior interosseous nerve more distally. Conclusions: PINS is not necessarily caused by focal compression at the supinator muscle but is instead frequently a consequence of partial fascicular lesions of the radial nerve trunk at the upper arm level. Neuroimaging should be considered as a complementary diagnostic method in PINS. PMID:27683851

  20. Posterior Urethral Strictures

    PubMed Central

    Gelman, Joel; Wisenbaugh, Eric S.

    2015-01-01

    Pelvic fracture urethral injuries are typically partial and more often complete disruptions of the most proximal bulbar and distal membranous urethra. Emergency management includes suprapubic tube placement. Subsequent primary realignment to place a urethral catheter remains a controversial topic, but what is not controversial is that when there is the development of a stricture (which is usually obliterative with a distraction defect) after suprapubic tube placement or urethral catheter removal, the standard of care is delayed urethral reconstruction with excision and primary anastomosis. This paper reviews the management of patients who suffer pelvic fracture urethral injuries and the techniques of preoperative urethral imaging and subsequent posterior urethroplasty. PMID:26691883

  1. Symptomatic posterior mediastinal angioleiomyoma.

    PubMed

    I, Hoseok; Jeong, Yeon Joo; Choi, Kyung Un; Kim, Yeong-Dae

    2008-08-30

    We report a case of a symptomatic angioleiomyoma in the left posterior mediastinum. A 66-year-old woman presented with left back and flank pain for 6 months. Chest computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) revealed a well-circumscribed 4.3 cm round mass. The mass was initially diagnosed as nerve sheath tumor, because of her symptoms and its close location to the sympathetic trunk and intercostal nerve. It was uneventfully removed through video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery. The pathology revealed an angioleiomyoma.

  2. Robust bayesian sensitivity analysis for case-control studies with uncertain exposure misclassification probabilities.

    PubMed

    Mak, Timothy Shin Heng; Best, Nicky; Rushton, Lesley

    2015-05-01

    Exposure misclassification in case-control studies leads to bias in odds ratio estimates. There has been considerable interest recently to account for misclassification in estimation so as to adjust for bias as well as more accurately quantify uncertainty. These methods require users to elicit suitable values or prior distributions for the misclassification probabilities. In the event where exposure misclassification is highly uncertain, these methods are of limited use, because the resulting posterior uncertainty intervals tend to be too wide to be informative. Posterior inference also becomes very dependent on the subjectively elicited prior distribution. In this paper, we propose an alternative "robust Bayesian" approach, where instead of eliciting prior distributions for the misclassification probabilities, a feasible region is given. The extrema of posterior inference within the region are sought using an inequality constrained optimization algorithm. This method enables sensitivity analyses to be conducted in a useful way as we do not need to restrict all of our unknown parameters to fixed values, but can instead consider ranges of values at a time.

  3. Posterior Cortical Atrophy

    PubMed Central

    Crutch, Sebastian J; Lehmann, Manja; Schott, Jonathan M; Rabinovici, Gil D; Rossor, Martin N; Fox, Nick C

    2013-01-01

    Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) is a neurodegenerative syndrome that is characterized by a progressive decline in visuospatial, visuoperceptual, literacy and praxic skills. The progressive neurodegeneration affecting parietal, occipital and occipito-temporal cortices which underlies PCA is attributable to Alzheimer's disease (AD) in the majority of patients. However, alternative underlying aetiologies including Dementia with Lewy Bodies (DLB), corticobasal degeneration (CBD) and prion disease have also been identified, and not all PCA patients have atrophy on clinical imaging. This heterogeneity has led to diagnostic and terminological inconsistencies, caused difficulty comparing studies from different centres, and limited the generalizability of clinical trials and investigations of factors driving phenotypic variability. Significant challenges remain in identifying the factors associated with both the selective vulnerability of posterior cortical regions and the young age of onset seen in PCA. Greater awareness of the syndrome and agreement over the correspondence between syndrome-and disease-level classifications are required in order to improve diagnostic accuracy, research study design and clinical management. PMID:22265212

  4. Posterior Fossa Meningioma

    PubMed Central

    Saleh, Essam A.; Taibah, Abdel Kader; Achilli, Vittorio; Aristegui, Miguel; Mazzoni, Antonio; Sanna, Mario

    1994-01-01

    Posterior fossa meningioma is the second most common tumor in the cerebellopontine angle. It has a higher rate of postoperative morbidity and mortality compared to acoustic neuroma. Forty posterior fossa meningioma patients managed in our centers were reviewed. Thirty-nine patients were managed surgically with 42 surgical procedures. The approaches used were the translabyrinthine approach in 18 patients (43%), the modified transcochlear in 11 cases (26%), the petro-occipital transsigmoid in 5 cases (12%), the suboccipital in 4 cases (10%), the petro-occipital trassigmoid transcervical in 2 cases (5%), the petro-occipital transsigmoid transtentorial in 1 case (2%), and a subtemporal transtentorial for another case (2%). Facial nerve anatomical integrity was preserved in 87% of procedures but was interrupted in 5 cases, with 4 of the latter subsequently repaired. Total tumor removal was accomplished in 38 cases. A second-stage total tumor removal is planned for the remaining case. There was only one case of perioperative death and no cases of radiological recurrence so far. ImagesFigure 1Figure 2Figure 3Figure 4p206-bFigure 5p207-bFigure 5 PMID:17171173

  5. Acute traumatic posterior elbow dislocation in children.

    PubMed

    Lieber, Justus; Zundel, Sabine M; Luithle, Tobias; Fuchs, Jörg; Kirschner, Hans-Joachim

    2012-09-01

    Traumatic posterior dislocation of the elbow is often associated with significant morbidity and incomplete recovery. The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyse the outcome of 33 children (median age 10.8 years). Patients underwent reduction and assessment of stability under general anaesthesia. Pure dislocations (n=10) were immobilized, whereas unstable fractures (n=23) were stabilized. Refixation of ligaments was performed if stability was not achieved by fracture stabilization alone. Immobilization was continued for 26 (pure dislocations) or 35 days (associated injuries), respectively. Results were excellent (n=9) or good (n=1) after pure dislocation. Results were excellent (n=15), good (n=7) or poor (n=1) in children with associated injuries. Accurate diagnosis, concentric stable reduction of the elbow as well as stable osteosynthesis of displaced fractures are associated with good results in children with acute posterior elbow dislocations.

  6. Novel posterior fixation keratoprosthesis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lacombe, Emmanuel

    1992-08-01

    The keratoprosthesis is the last solution for corneally blind patients that cannot benefit from corneal transplants. Keratoprostheses that have been designed to be affixed anteriorly usually necessitate multi-step surgical procedures and are continuously subjected to the extrusion forces generated by the positive intraocular pressure; therefore, clinical results in patients prove inconsistent. We proposed a novel keratoprosthesis concept that utilizes posterior corneal fixation which `a priori' minimizes the risk of aqueous leakage and expulsion. This prosthesis is implanted in a single procedure thereby reducing the number of surgical complications normally associated with anterior fixation devices. In addition, its novel design makes this keratoprosthesis implantable in phakic eyes. With an average follow-up of 13 months (range 3 to 25 months), our results on 21 cases are encouraging. Half of the keratoprostheses were implanted in severe burn cases, with the remainder in cases of pseudo- pemphigus. Good visual results and cosmetic appearance were obtained in 14 of 21 eyes.

  7. Posterior pole tumor update.

    PubMed

    Ou, Judy I; Wheeler, Sharon M; O'Brien, Joan M

    2002-12-01

    This chapter focuses on the diagnosis and management of choroidal melanoma in light of recent findings from the COMS. Retinoblastoma is emphasized to describe recent trends in primary treatment away from EBRT and toward chemoreduction with local therapy. In addition, vascular and glial tumors of the retina and tumors of the retinal pigment epithelium are described because of the association between these lesions and systemic disease. Recent advances in treatment and genetic testing for these diseases are discussed. Finally, ocular metastasis, intraocular lymphoid tumors, and intraocular leukemia are included because of their importance in determining systemic treatment and prognosis. The chapter gives an overview of important posterior pole tumors and highlights recent developments in the management of each intraocular disease process.

  8. Ordering genes: controlling the decision-error probabilities.

    PubMed Central

    Rogatko, A; Zacks, S

    1993-01-01

    Determination of the relative gene order on chromosomes is of critical importance in the construction of human gene maps. In this paper we develop a sequential algorithm for gene ordering. We start by comparing three sequential procedures to order three genes on the basis of Bayesian posterior probabilities, maximum-likelihood ratio, and minimal recombinant class. In the second part of the paper we extend sequential procedure based on the posterior probabilities to the general case of g genes. We present a theorem that states that the predicted average probability of committing a decision error, associated with a Bayesian sequential procedure that accepts the hypothesis of a gene-order configuration with posterior probability equal to or greater than pi *, is smaller than 1 - pi *. This theorem holds irrespective of the number of genes, the genetic model, and the source of genetic information. The theorem is an extension of a classical result of Wald, concerning the sum of the actual and the nominal error probabilities in the sequential probability ratio test of two hypotheses. A stepwise strategy for ordering a large number of genes, with control over the decision-error probabilities, is discussed. An asymptotic approximation is provided, which facilitates the calculations with existing computer software for gene mapping, of the posterior probabilities of an order and the error probabilities. We illustrate with some simulations that the stepwise ordering is an efficient procedure. PMID:8488844

  9. Accurate colon residue detection algorithm with partial volume segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Xiang; Liang, Zhengrong; Zhang, PengPeng; Kutcher, Gerald J.

    2004-05-01

    Colon cancer is the second leading cause of cancer-related death in the United States. Earlier detection and removal of polyps can dramatically reduce the chance of developing malignant tumor. Due to some limitations of optical colonoscopy used in clinic, many researchers have developed virtual colonoscopy as an alternative technique, in which accurate colon segmentation is crucial. However, partial volume effect and existence of residue make it very challenging. The electronic colon cleaning technique proposed by Chen et al is a very attractive method, which is also kind of hard segmentation method. As mentioned in their paper, some artifacts were produced, which might affect the accurate colon reconstruction. In our paper, instead of labeling each voxel with a unique label or tissue type, the percentage of different tissues within each voxel, which we call a mixture, was considered in establishing a maximum a posterior probability (MAP) image-segmentation framework. A Markov random field (MRF) model was developed to reflect the spatial information for the tissue mixtures. The spatial information based on hard segmentation was used to determine which tissue types are in the specific voxel. Parameters of each tissue class were estimated by the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm during the MAP tissue-mixture segmentation. Real CT experimental results demonstrated that the partial volume effects between four tissue types have been precisely detected. Meanwhile, the residue has been electronically removed and very smooth and clean interface along the colon wall has been obtained.

  10. Multinomial mixture model with heterogeneous classification probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holland, M.D.; Gray, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    Royle and Link (Ecology 86(9):2505-2512, 2005) proposed an analytical method that allowed estimation of multinomial distribution parameters and classification probabilities from categorical data measured with error. While useful, we demonstrate algebraically and by simulations that this method yields biased multinomial parameter estimates when the probabilities of correct category classifications vary among sampling units. We address this shortcoming by treating these probabilities as logit-normal random variables within a Bayesian framework. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo to compute Bayes estimates from a simulated sample from the posterior distribution. Based on simulations, this elaborated Royle-Link model yields nearly unbiased estimates of multinomial and correct classification probability estimates when classification probabilities are allowed to vary according to the normal distribution on the logit scale or according to the Beta distribution. The method is illustrated using categorical submersed aquatic vegetation data. ?? 2010 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  11. An improved probability mapping approach to assess genome mosaicism

    PubMed Central

    Zhaxybayeva, Olga; Gogarten, J Peter

    2003-01-01

    Background Maximum likelihood and posterior probability mapping are useful visualization techniques that are used to ascertain the mosaic nature of prokaryotic genomes. However, posterior probabilities, especially when calculated for four-taxon cases, tend to overestimate the support for tree topologies. Furthermore, because of poor taxon sampling four-taxon analyses suffer from sensitivity to the long branch attraction artifact. Here we extend the probability mapping approach by improving taxon sampling of the analyzed datasets, and by using bootstrap support values, a more conservative tool to assess reliability. Results Quartets of orthologous proteins were complemented with homologs from selected reference genomes. The mapping of bootstrap support values from these extended datasets gives results similar to the original maximum likelihood and posterior probability mapping. The more conservative nature of the plotted support values allows to focus further analyses on those protein families that strongly disagree with the majority or plurality of genes present in the analyzed genomes. Conclusion Posterior probability is a non-conservative measure for support, and posterior probability mapping only provides a quick estimation of phylogenetic information content of four genomes. This approach can be utilized as a pre-screen to select genes that might have been horizontally transferred. Better taxon sampling combined with subtree analyses prevents the inconsistencies associated with four-taxon analyses, but retains the power of visual representation. Nevertheless, a case-by-case inspection of individual multi-taxon phylogenies remains necessary to differentiate unrecognized paralogy and shared phylogenetic reconstruction artifacts from horizontal gene transfer events. PMID:12974984

  12. Probability 1/e

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.

    2011-01-01

    Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.

  13. Posterior Reversible Encephalopathy Syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Algahtani, Abdulhadi; Aldarmahi, Ahmad; Hmoud, Mohammed; Marzuk, Yousef; Shirah, Bader

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a clinicoradiological syndrome characterized by headache, altered mental status, seizures, or loss of vision. In this study, we report the largest series of PRES coming from Saudi Arabia and explore the etiology, clinical presentation, and outcome. We also report new imaging findings associated with this condition. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of all cases of PRES admitted to King Abdulaziz Medical City, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, between the years 2005 and 2015. A neurologist reviewed all charts and analyzed the clinical presentations, etiological factors, and outcomes, and a neuroradiologist reviewed the imaging studies. Only patients with clinical and imaging features consistent with PRES were included in the study. Results: We collected 31 patients who had clinical and radiological features consistent with PRES. Females were more affected than males (18 females and 13 males), and patients’ age ranged from 6 to 95 years, with a mean of 38.3 years. Patients were treated by removing the precipitating causes and treating the underlying conditions. Resolution of neurologic signs occurred within 2 to 3 weeks in all patients. Conclusion: In our opinion, PRES itself is usually a benign condition with complete recovery if the condition is recognized early and managed appropriately. Although clinical signs are nonspecific, the constellation of symptoms including headache, visual problems, seizures, and altered level of consciousness should suggest the possibility of PRES, especially in high-risk group. Abnormalities on magnetic resonance imaging are often characteristic and may be the first clue to the diagnosis. PMID:28042366

  14. Imaging in spinal posterior epidural space lesions: A pictorial essay.

    PubMed

    Gala, Foram B; Aswani, Yashant

    2016-01-01

    Spinal epidural space is a real anatomic space located outside the dura mater and within the spinal canal extending from foramen magnum to sacrum. Important contents of this space are epidural fat, spinal nerves, epidural veins and arteries. Due to close proximity of posterior epidural space to spinal cord and spinal nerves, the lesions present with symptoms of radiculopathy and/or myelopathy. In this pictorial essay, detailed anatomy of the posterior epidural space, pathologies affecting it along with imaging pearls to accurately diagnose them are discussed. Various pathologies affecting the posterior epidural space either arising from the space itself or occurring secondary to vertebral/intervertebral disc pathologies. Primary spinal bone tumors affecting the posterior epidural space have been excluded. The etiological spectrum affecting the posterior epidural space ranges from degenerative, infective, neoplastic - benign or malignant to miscellaneous pathologies. MRI is the modality of choice in evaluation of these lesions with CT scan mainly helpful in detecting calcification. Due to its excellent soft tissue contrast, Magnetic Resonance Imaging is extremely useful in assessing the pathologies of posterior epidural space, to know their entire extent, characterize them and along with clinical history and laboratory data, arrive at a specific diagnosis and guide the referring clinician. It is important to diagnose these lesions early so as to prevent permanent neurological complication.

  15. Imaging in spinal posterior epidural space lesions: A pictorial essay

    PubMed Central

    Gala, Foram B; Aswani, Yashant

    2016-01-01

    Spinal epidural space is a real anatomic space located outside the dura mater and within the spinal canal extending from foramen magnum to sacrum. Important contents of this space are epidural fat, spinal nerves, epidural veins and arteries. Due to close proximity of posterior epidural space to spinal cord and spinal nerves, the lesions present with symptoms of radiculopathy and/or myelopathy. In this pictorial essay, detailed anatomy of the posterior epidural space, pathologies affecting it along with imaging pearls to accurately diagnose them are discussed. Various pathologies affecting the posterior epidural space either arising from the space itself or occurring secondary to vertebral/intervertebral disc pathologies. Primary spinal bone tumors affecting the posterior epidural space have been excluded. The etiological spectrum affecting the posterior epidural space ranges from degenerative, infective, neoplastic - benign or malignant to miscellaneous pathologies. MRI is the modality of choice in evaluation of these lesions with CT scan mainly helpful in detecting calcification. Due to its excellent soft tissue contrast, Magnetic Resonance Imaging is extremely useful in assessing the pathologies of posterior epidural space, to know their entire extent, characterize them and along with clinical history and laboratory data, arrive at a specific diagnosis and guide the referring clinician. It is important to diagnose these lesions early so as to prevent permanent neurological complication. PMID:27857455

  16. Probability and Relative Frequency

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Drieschner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    The concept of probability seems to have been inexplicable since its invention in the seventeenth century. In its use in science, probability is closely related with relative frequency. So the task seems to be interpreting that relation. In this paper, we start with predicted relative frequency and show that its structure is the same as that of probability. I propose to call that the `prediction interpretation' of probability. The consequences of that definition are discussed. The "ladder"-structure of the probability calculus is analyzed. The expectation of the relative frequency is shown to be equal to the predicted relative frequency. Probability is shown to be the most general empirically testable prediction.

  17. What Are Probability Surveys?

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The National Aquatic Resource Surveys (NARS) use probability-survey designs to assess the condition of the nation’s waters. In probability surveys (also known as sample-surveys or statistical surveys), sampling sites are selected randomly.

  18. Dependent Probability Spaces

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris

    2008-01-01

    The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…

  19. Dynamical Simulation of Probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices(such as random number generators). Self-orgainizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed. Special attention was focused upon coupled stochastic processes, defined in terms of conditional probabilities, for which joint probability does not exist. Simulations of quantum probabilities are also discussed.

  20. Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome associated with bone marrow transplantation.

    PubMed

    Teive, H A; Brandi, I V; Camargo, C H; Bittencourt, M A; Bonfim, C M; Friedrich, M L; de Medeiros, C R; Werneck, L C; Pasquini, R

    2001-09-01

    Reversible posterior leucoencephalopathy syndrome (RPLS) has previously been described in patients who have renal insufficiency, eclampsia, hypertensive encephalopathy and patients receiving immunosuppressive therapy. The mechanism by which immunosuppressive agents can cause this syndrome is not clear, but it is probably related with cytotoxic effects of these agents on the vascular endothelium. We report eight patients who received cyclosporine A (CSA) after allogeneic bone marrow transplantation or as treatment for severe aplastic anemia (SSA) who developed posterior leucoencephalopathy. The most common signs and symptoms were seizures and headache. Neurological dysfunction occurred preceded by or concomitant with high blood pressure and some degree of acute renal failure in six patients. Computerized tomography studies showed low-density white matter lesions involving the posterior areas of cerebral hemispheres. Symptoms and neuroimaging abnormalities were reversible and improvement occurred in all patients when given lower doses of CSA or when the drug was withdrawn. RPLS may be considered an expression of CSA neurotoxicity.

  1. Rethinking "posterior" tongue-tie.

    PubMed

    Douglas, Pamela Sylvia

    2013-12-01

    Currently, many clinicians who help with breastfeeding problems are diagnosing "posterior" tongue-tie in infants and performing or referring for frenotomy. In this "Speaking Out" article, I argue that the diagnosis of "posterior" tongue-tie has successfully raised awareness of the importance of impaired tongue function in breastfeeding difficulty. However, the diagnosis of "posterior" tongue-tie also applies a reductionist, medicalized theoretical frame to the complex problem of impaired tongue function, risking unintended outcomes. Impaired tongue function arises out of multiple interacting and co-evolving factors, including the interplay between social behaviors concerning breastfeeding and mother-infant biology. Consideration of theoretical frames is vital if we are to build an evidence base through efficient use of the scarce resources available for clinical breastfeeding research and minimize unintended outcomes.

  2. Risk estimation using probability machines

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Logistic regression has been the de facto, and often the only, model used in the description and analysis of relationships between a binary outcome and observed features. It is widely used to obtain the conditional probabilities of the outcome given predictors, as well as predictor effect size estimates using conditional odds ratios. Results We show how statistical learning machines for binary outcomes, provably consistent for the nonparametric regression problem, can be used to provide both consistent conditional probability estimation and conditional effect size estimates. Effect size estimates from learning machines leverage our understanding of counterfactual arguments central to the interpretation of such estimates. We show that, if the data generating model is logistic, we can recover accurate probability predictions and effect size estimates with nearly the same efficiency as a correct logistic model, both for main effects and interactions. We also propose a method using learning machines to scan for possible interaction effects quickly and efficiently. Simulations using random forest probability machines are presented. Conclusions The models we propose make no assumptions about the data structure, and capture the patterns in the data by just specifying the predictors involved and not any particular model structure. So they do not run the same risks of model mis-specification and the resultant estimation biases as a logistic model. This methodology, which we call a “risk machine”, will share properties from the statistical machine that it is derived from. PMID:24581306

  3. On differentiating the probability of error in multipopular feature selection

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Peters, B. C.

    1974-01-01

    A method of linear feature selection for n dimensional observation vectors which belong to one of m populations is presented. Each population has a known apriori probability and is described by a known multivariate normal density function. Specifically we consider the problem of finding a k x n matrix B of rank k (k n) for which the transformed probability of misclassification is minimized. Providing that the transformed a posterior probabilities are distinct theoretical results are obtained which, for the case k = l, give rise to a numerically tractable formula for the derivative of the probability of misclassification. It is shown that for the two population problem this condition is also necessary. The dependence of the minimum probability of error on the a priori probabilities is investigated. The minimum probability of error satisfies a uniform Lipschitz condition with respect to the a priori probabilities.

  4. Accuracy of Posterior Subtalar Joint Injection Without Fluoroscopy

    PubMed Central

    Kirk, Kevin L.; Campbell, John T.; Guyton, Gregory P.

    2008-01-01

    Injection into the posterior subtalar joint has not been validated for accuracy using radiographic end points. We asked whether needle placement into a normal posterior subtalar joint could be performed accurately and selectively by experienced surgeons without fluoroscopic guidance. Three fellowship-trained orthopaedic foot and ankle surgeons each injected the posterior subtalar joint of 20 cadaveric specimens using an anterolateral approach. Fluoroscopic images were obtained by an independent investigator and blinded. A separate fellowship-trained foot and ankle surgeon interpreted the images. Of 60 injections, 58 were accurate and two were extraarticular based on interpretation by an independent foot and ankle surgeon. Extravasation into the ankle occurred in 14 samples and into the peroneal sheath in two samples. Experienced surgeons can place intraarticular injections into a radiographically normal posterior subtalar joint without fluoroscopy with a high degree of accuracy. However, extravasation into the ankle or peroneal tendon sheath occurred in an unpredictable fashion, suggesting selectivity of injection placement is relatively limited without the use of fluoroscopy. Fluoroscopy may not be necessary for injections used solely for therapeutic purposes. However, if the injection is intended for diagnostic purposes or to assist in surgical decision-making or if the joint is abnormal, we recommend fluoroscopy to ensure the subtalar joint is the only anatomic structure impacted by the injection. PMID:18404293

  5. Statistics and Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Laktineh, Imad

    2010-04-01

    This ourse constitutes a brief introduction to probability applications in high energy physis. First the mathematical tools related to the diferent probability conepts are introduced. The probability distributions which are commonly used in high energy physics and their characteristics are then shown and commented. The central limit theorem and its consequences are analysed. Finally some numerical methods used to produce diferent kinds of probability distribution are presented. The full article (17 p.) corresponding to this lecture is written in french and is provided in the proceedings of the book SOS 2008.

  6. Probability of satellite collision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mccarter, J. W.

    1972-01-01

    A method is presented for computing the probability of a collision between a particular artificial earth satellite and any one of the total population of earth satellites. The collision hazard incurred by the proposed modular Space Station is assessed using the technique presented. The results of a parametric study to determine what type of satellite orbits produce the greatest contribution to the total collision probability are presented. Collision probability for the Space Station is given as a function of Space Station altitude and inclination. Collision probability was also parameterized over miss distance and mission duration.

  7. PROBABILITY AND STATISTICS.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    STATISTICAL ANALYSIS, REPORTS), (*PROBABILITY, REPORTS), INFORMATION THEORY, DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS, STATISTICAL PROCESSES, STOCHASTIC PROCESSES, MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS, DISTRIBUTION THEORY , DECISION THEORY, MEASURE THEORY, OPTIMIZATION

  8. Stereolithography for Posterior Fossa Cranioplasty

    PubMed Central

    Agner, Celso; Dujovny, Manuel; Evenhouse, Raymond; Charbel, Fady T.; Sadler, Lewis

    1998-01-01

    Posterior fossa cranioplasty has been suggested for improvement of neurological symptoms following craniectomy. However, there is no particular recommendation in the literature about techniques for prosthesis manufacture and implantation. We report our experience using rapid prototyping technology and stereolithography for pre-surgical implant design and production of cranioplasties. ImagesFigure 1Figure 2Figure 3Figure 4Figure 5 PMID:17171056

  9. Probabilistic techniques for obtaining accurate patient counts in Clinical Data Warehouses.

    PubMed

    Myers, Risa B; Herskovic, Jorge R

    2011-12-01

    Proposal and execution of clinical trials, computation of quality measures and discovery of correlation between medical phenomena are all applications where an accurate count of patients is needed. However, existing sources of this type of patient information, including Clinical Data Warehouses (CDWs) may be incomplete or inaccurate. This research explores applying probabilistic techniques, supported by the MayBMS probabilistic database, to obtain accurate patient counts from a Clinical Data Warehouse containing synthetic patient data. We present a synthetic Clinical Data Warehouse, and populate it with simulated data using a custom patient data generation engine. We then implement, evaluate and compare different techniques for obtaining patients counts. We model billing as a test for the presence of a condition. We compute billing's sensitivity and specificity both by conducting a "Simulated Expert Review" where a representative sample of records are reviewed and labeled by experts, and by obtaining the ground truth for every record. We compute the posterior probability of a patient having a condition through a "Bayesian Chain", using Bayes' Theorem to calculate the probability of a patient having a condition after each visit. The second method is a "one-shot" approach that computes the probability of a patient having a condition based on whether the patient is ever billed for the condition. Our results demonstrate the utility of probabilistic approaches, which improve on the accuracy of raw counts. In particular, the simulated review paired with a single application of Bayes' Theorem produces the best results, with an average error rate of 2.1% compared to 43.7% for the straightforward billing counts. Overall, this research demonstrates that Bayesian probabilistic approaches improve patient counts on simulated patient populations. We believe that total patient counts based on billing data are one of the many possible applications of our Bayesian framework. Use of

  10. Probability and Statistics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barnes, Bernis, Ed.; And Others

    This teacher's guide to probability and statistics contains three major sections. The first section on elementary combinatorial principles includes activities, student problems, and suggested teaching procedures for the multiplication principle, permutations, and combinations. Section two develops an intuitive approach to probability through…

  11. Teachers' Understandings of Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Yan; Thompson, Patrick

    2007-01-01

    Probability is an important idea with a remarkably wide range of applications. However, psychological and instructional studies conducted in the last two decades have consistently documented poor understanding of probability among different populations across different settings. The purpose of this study is to develop a theoretical framework for…

  12. Arthroscopic Management of Anterior, Posterior, and Multidirectional Shoulder Instabilities.

    PubMed

    Field, Larry D; Ryu, Richard K N; Abrams, Jeffrey S; Provencher, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Arthroscopic shoulder stabilization offers several potential advantages compared with open surgery, including the opportunity to more accurately evaluate the glenohumeral joint at the time of diagnostic assessment; comprehensively address multiple pathologic lesions that may be identified; and avoid potential complications unique to open stabilization, such as postoperative subscapularis failure. A thorough understanding of normal shoulder anatomy and biomechanics, along with the pathoanatomy responsible for anterior, posterior, and multidirectional shoulder instability patterns, is very important in the management of patients who have shoulder instability. The treating physician also must be familiar with diagnostic imaging and physical examination maneuvers that are required to accurately diagnose shoulder instability.

  13. Probability summation--a critique.

    PubMed

    Laming, Donald

    2013-03-01

    This Discussion Paper seeks to kill off probability summation, specifically the high-threshold assumption, as an explanatory idea in visual science. In combination with a Weibull function of a parameter of about 4, probability summation can accommodate, to within the limits of experimental error, the shape of the detectability function for contrast, the reduction in threshold that results from the combination of widely separated grating components, summation with respect to duration at threshold, and some instances, but not all, of spatial summation. But it has repeated difficulty with stimuli below threshold, because it denies the availability of input from such stimuli. All the phenomena listed above, and many more, can be accommodated equally accurately by signal-detection theory combined with an accelerated nonlinear transform of small, near-threshold, contrasts. This is illustrated with a transform that is the fourth power for the smallest contrasts, but tends to linear above threshold. Moreover, this particular transform can be derived from elementary properties of sensory neurons. Probability summation cannot be regarded as a special case of a more general theory, because it depends essentially on the 19th-century notion of a high fixed threshold. It is simply an obstruction to further progress.

  14. Distortions of posterior visual space.

    PubMed

    Phillips, Flip; Voshell, Martin G

    2009-01-01

    The study of spatial vision is a long and well traveled road (which, of course, converges to a vanishing point at the horizon). Its various distortions have been widely investigated empirically, and most concentrate, pragmatically, on the space anterior to the observer. The visual world behind the observer has received relatively less attention and it is this perspective the current experiments address. Our results show systematic perceptual distortions in the posterior visual world when viewed statically. Under static viewing conditions, observer's perceptual representation was consistently 'spread' in a hyperbolic fashion. Directions to distant, peripheral locations were consistently overestimated by about 11 degrees from the ground truth and this variability increased as the target was moved toward the center of the observer's back. The perceptual representation of posterior visual space is, no doubt, secondary to the more immediate needs of the anterior visual world. Still, it is important in some domains including certain sports, such as rowing, and in vehicular navigation.

  15. Guide star probabilities

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soneira, R. M.; Bahcall, J. N.

    1981-01-01

    Probabilities are calculated for acquiring suitable guide stars (GS) with the fine guidance system (FGS) of the space telescope. A number of the considerations and techniques described are also relevant for other space astronomy missions. The constraints of the FGS are reviewed. The available data on bright star densities are summarized and a previous error in the literature is corrected. Separate analytic and Monte Carlo calculations of the probabilities are described. A simulation of space telescope pointing is carried out using the Weistrop north galactic pole catalog of bright stars. Sufficient information is presented so that the probabilities of acquisition can be estimated as a function of position in the sky. The probability of acquiring suitable guide stars is greatly increased if the FGS can allow an appreciable difference between the (bright) primary GS limiting magnitude and the (fainter) secondary GS limiting magnitude.

  16. Quantum computing and probability.

    PubMed

    Ferry, David K

    2009-11-25

    Over the past two decades, quantum computing has become a popular and promising approach to trying to solve computationally difficult problems. Missing in many descriptions of quantum computing is just how probability enters into the process. Here, we discuss some simple examples of how uncertainty and probability enter, and how this and the ideas of quantum computing challenge our interpretations of quantum mechanics. It is found that this uncertainty can lead to intrinsic decoherence, and this raises challenges for error correction.

  17. Rationalizing Hybrid Earthquake Probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gomberg, J.; Reasenberg, P.; Beeler, N.; Cocco, M.; Belardinelli, M.

    2003-12-01

    An approach to including stress transfer and frictional effects in estimates of the probability of failure of a single fault affected by a nearby earthquake has been suggested in Stein et al. (1997). This `hybrid' approach combines conditional probabilities, which depend on the time elapsed since the last earthquake on the affected fault, with Poissonian probabilities that account for friction and depend only on the time since the perturbing earthquake. The latter are based on the seismicity rate change model developed by Dieterich (1994) to explain the temporal behavior of aftershock sequences in terms of rate-state frictional processes. The model assumes an infinite population of nucleation sites that are near failure at the time of the perturbing earthquake. In the hybrid approach, assuming the Dieterich model can lead to significant transient increases in failure probability. We explore some of the implications of applying the Dieterich model to a single fault and its impact on the hybrid probabilities. We present two interpretations that we believe can rationalize the use of the hybrid approach. In the first, a statistical distribution representing uncertainties in elapsed and/or mean recurrence time on the fault serves as a proxy for Dieterich's population of nucleation sites. In the second, we imagine a population of nucleation patches distributed over the fault with a distribution of maturities. In both cases we find that the probability depends on the time since the last earthquake. In particular, the size of the transient probability increase may only be significant for faults already close to failure. Neglecting the maturity of a fault may lead to overestimated rate and probability increases.

  18. Bladder neck incompetence at posterior urethroplasty

    PubMed Central

    Koraitim, Mamdouh M.

    2015-01-01

    The finding of an incompetent bladder neck (BN) at the time of posterior urethroplasty will necessarily exacerbate the already difficult situation. In such cases the aim of the treatment is not only to restore urethral continuity by end-to-end urethral anastomosis, but also to restore the function of the BN to maintain urinary continence. Fortunately, the incidence of incompetence of the BN at posterior urethroplasty is uncommon, usually ≈4.5%. It seems that pelvic fracture-related BN injuries, in contrast to urethral injuries which result from a shearing force, are due to direct injury by the sharp edge of the fractured and displaced pubic bone. The risk of injuries to the BN is greater in children, in patients with a fracture involving both superior and inferior pubic rami on the same side, and in those managed initially by primary realignment. An incompetent BN is suspected by finding an open rectangular BN on cystography, and a fixedly open BN on suprapubic cystoscopy. An incompetent BN can be treated either subsequent to or concomitant with the urethral repair, according to whether a perineal or a perineo-abdominal urethroplasty is used, respectively. Several options have been reported to treat pelvic fracture-related BN incompetence, including reconstructing the BN, forming a new sphincter by tubularisation of a rectangular flap of the anterior bladder wall, and mechanical occlusion by an artificial sphincter or collagen injection. Reconstruction of the BN by the Young-Dees-Leadbetter∗∗ procedure probably provides the most successful results. PMID:26019982

  19. Probabilities in implicit learning.

    PubMed

    Tseng, Philip; Hsu, Tzu-Yu; Tzeng, Ovid J L; Hung, Daisy L; Juan, Chi-Hung

    2011-01-01

    The visual system possesses a remarkable ability in learning regularities from the environment. In the case of contextual cuing, predictive visual contexts such as spatial configurations are implicitly learned, retained, and used to facilitate visual search-all without one's subjective awareness and conscious effort. Here we investigated whether implicit learning and its facilitatory effects are sensitive to the statistical property of such implicit knowledge. In other words, are highly probable events learned better than less probable ones even when such learning is implicit? We systematically varied the frequencies of context repetition to alter the degrees of learning. Our results showed that search efficiency increased consistently as contextual probabilities increased. Thus, the visual contexts, along with their probability of occurrences, were both picked up by the visual system. Furthermore, even when the total number of exposures was held constant between each probability, the highest probability still enjoyed a greater cuing effect, suggesting that the temporal aspect of implicit learning is also an important factor to consider in addition to the effect of mere frequency. Together, these findings suggest that implicit learning, although bypassing observers' conscious encoding and retrieval effort, behaves much like explicit learning in the sense that its facilitatory effect also varies as a function of its associative strengths.

  20. Launch Collision Probability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bollenbacher, Gary; Guptill, James D.

    1999-01-01

    This report analyzes the probability of a launch vehicle colliding with one of the nearly 10,000 tracked objects orbiting the Earth, given that an object on a near-collision course with the launch vehicle has been identified. Knowledge of the probability of collision throughout the launch window can be used to avoid launching at times when the probability of collision is unacceptably high. The analysis in this report assumes that the positions of the orbiting objects and the launch vehicle can be predicted as a function of time and therefore that any tracked object which comes close to the launch vehicle can be identified. The analysis further assumes that the position uncertainty of the launch vehicle and the approaching space object can be described with position covariance matrices. With these and some additional simplifying assumptions, a closed-form solution is developed using two approaches. The solution shows that the probability of collision is a function of position uncertainties, the size of the two potentially colliding objects, and the nominal separation distance at the point of closest approach. ne impact of the simplifying assumptions on the accuracy of the final result is assessed and the application of the results to the Cassini mission, launched in October 1997, is described. Other factors that affect the probability of collision are also discussed. Finally, the report offers alternative approaches that can be used to evaluate the probability of collision.

  1. Accurate Finite Difference Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodrich, John W.

    1996-01-01

    Two families of finite difference algorithms for computational aeroacoustics are presented and compared. All of the algorithms are single step explicit methods, they have the same order of accuracy in both space and time, with examples up to eleventh order, and they have multidimensional extensions. One of the algorithm families has spectral like high resolution. Propagation with high order and high resolution algorithms can produce accurate results after O(10(exp 6)) periods of propagation with eight grid points per wavelength.

  2. Accurate monotone cubic interpolation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huynh, Hung T.

    1991-01-01

    Monotone piecewise cubic interpolants are simple and effective. They are generally third-order accurate, except near strict local extrema where accuracy degenerates to second-order due to the monotonicity constraint. Algorithms for piecewise cubic interpolants, which preserve monotonicity as well as uniform third and fourth-order accuracy are presented. The gain of accuracy is obtained by relaxing the monotonicity constraint in a geometric framework in which the median function plays a crucial role.

  3. The perception of probability.

    PubMed

    Gallistel, C R; Krishan, Monika; Liu, Ye; Miller, Reilly; Latham, Peter E

    2014-01-01

    We present a computational model to explain the results from experiments in which subjects estimate the hidden probability parameter of a stepwise nonstationary Bernoulli process outcome by outcome. The model captures the following results qualitatively and quantitatively, with only 2 free parameters: (a) Subjects do not update their estimate after each outcome; they step from one estimate to another at irregular intervals. (b) The joint distribution of step widths and heights cannot be explained on the assumption that a threshold amount of change must be exceeded in order for them to indicate a change in their perception. (c) The mapping of observed probability to the median perceived probability is the identity function over the full range of probabilities. (d) Precision (how close estimates are to the best possible estimate) is good and constant over the full range. (e) Subjects quickly detect substantial changes in the hidden probability parameter. (f) The perceived probability sometimes changes dramatically from one observation to the next. (g) Subjects sometimes have second thoughts about a previous change perception, after observing further outcomes. (h) The frequency with which they perceive changes moves in the direction of the true frequency over sessions. (Explaining this finding requires 2 additional parametric assumptions.) The model treats the perception of the current probability as a by-product of the construction of a compact encoding of the experienced sequence in terms of its change points. It illustrates the why and the how of intermittent Bayesian belief updating and retrospective revision in simple perception. It suggests a reinterpretation of findings in the recent literature on the neurobiology of decision making.

  4. Experimental Probability in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrew, Lane

    2009-01-01

    Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.

  5. Bilateral posterior shoulder dislocation after electrical shock: A case report

    PubMed Central

    Ketenci, Ismail Emre; Duymus, Tahir Mutlu; Ulusoy, Ayhan; Yanik, Hakan Serhat; Mutlu, Serhat; Durakbasa, Mehmet Oguz

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Posterior dislocation of the shoulder is a rare and commonly missed injury. Unilateral dislocations occur mostly due to trauma. Bilateral posterior shoulder dislocations are even more rare and result mainly from epileptic seizures. Electrical injury is a rare cause of posterior shoulder dislocation. Injury mechanism in electrical injury is similar to epileptic seizures, where the shoulder is forced to internal rotation, flexion and adduction. Presentation of case This report presents a case of bilateral posterior shoulder dislocation after electrical shock. We were able to find a few individual case reports describing this condition. The case was acute and humeral head impression defects were minor. Our treatment in this case consisted of closed reduction under general anesthesia and applying of orthoses which kept the shoulders in abduction and external rotation. A rehabilitation program was begun after 3 weeks of immobilization. After 6 months of injury the patient has returned to work. 20 months postoperatively, at final follow-up, he was painless and capable of performing all of his daily activities. Discussion The amount of bilateral shoulder dislocations after electrical injury is not reported but is known to be very rare. The aim of this case presentation is to report an example for this rare entity, highlight the difficulties in diagnosis and review the treatment options. Conclusion Physical examination and radiographic evaluation are important for quick and accurate diagnosis. PMID:26904192

  6. FEMORAL INSERTION OF THE POSTERIOR CRUCIATE LIGAMENT: AN ANATOMICAL STUDY

    PubMed Central

    de Paula Leite Cury, Ricardo; Severino, Nilson Roberto; Camargo, Osmar Pedro Arbix; Aihara, Tatsuo; Neto, Leopoldo Viana Batista; Goarayeb, Dedley Nelson

    2015-01-01

    Objective: To identify objective parameters to guide correct location of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) in the femur. Methods: The PCLs of 20 human cadavers were resected. The following portions were measured: distance from the most distal portion of the PCL, close to the roof, to the most anterior edge of the cartilage (AB); distance from the most proximal portion of the PCL, close to the roof, to the most anterior cartilage (AC); distance between the two parts of the ligament close to the roof (BC); distance from the distal edge in its posterior portion, to the more posterior joint edge (DE); distance from the distal edge of the ligament in its posterior portion, to the intercondylar roof (DF); and finally, the format of the ligament insertion and area of coverage on the femoral condyle. Results: The PCL has the shape of a quarter ellipse, with an average area of 153.5mm2. The mean distances found were: AB of 2.1mm, AC of 10.7mm, BC of 8.6mm DE of 12.4mm and DF of 16.8mm. Conclusions: The edge close to the roof of the anterolateral bundle is closer to the joint cartilage (2.1mm) than the posteromedial bundle is, which is 12.4mm from the edge proximal to the cartilage. These references should assist in better and more accurate positioning of femoral tunnels in PCL reconstruction. PMID:27027059

  7. Posterior commissure of the human larynx revisited.

    PubMed

    Tucker, John A; Tucker, Sean T

    2010-05-01

    The existence of the posterior commissure (PC) of the human larynx has been disputed (Hirano M, Sato K, et al. The posterior glottis. Trans Am Laryngol Assoc. 1986;107:70-75). "The term posterior commissure has no relevance to anatomical structure. The term commissure means a joining together. The bilateral vocal folds never join at their posterior ends. The posterior aspect of the glottis is a wall. The posterior lateral aspect of the posterior glottis is also the lateral wall of the posterior glottis" (Hirano M, Sato K, et al. The posterior glottis. Trans Am Laryngol Assoc. 1986;107:70-75). This study is intended to clarify the development of anatomical and morphological aspects of the PC in conjunction with a clinical classification of the larynx in sagittal view. This study uses human embryo and fetal laryngeal sections from the Carnegie Collection of Human Embryos (the world standard) and whole organ laryngeal sections from the Tucker Laryngeal Fetal Collection. Correlation of histologic and gross anatomical structure is made with the Hirano et al atlas, the Vidić Photographic Atlas of the Human Body, and the O'Rahilly Embryonic Atlas. Embryologic data clearly describe and illustrate the posterior union of the cricoid cartilage with formation of the PC. The anatomical functional aspects of the posterior lateral cricoid lamina as the supporting buttress of the articulating arytenoid cartilages are illustrated.

  8. Estimating tail probabilities

    SciTech Connect

    Carr, D.B.; Tolley, H.D.

    1982-12-01

    This paper investigates procedures for univariate nonparametric estimation of tail probabilities. Extrapolated values for tail probabilities beyond the data are also obtained based on the shape of the density in the tail. Several estimators which use exponential weighting are described. These are compared in a Monte Carlo study to nonweighted estimators, to the empirical cdf, to an integrated kernel, to a Fourier series estimate, to a penalized likelihood estimate and a maximum likelihood estimate. Selected weighted estimators are shown to compare favorably to many of these standard estimators for the sampling distributions investigated.

  9. Isolated posterior cruciate ligament calcification

    PubMed Central

    Koukoulias, Nikolaos E; Papastergiou, Stergios G

    2011-01-01

    The authors present a case of calcified posterior cruciate ligament (PCL). A 61-year-old female presented in our department reporting 12 months history of knee pain that was getting worse during the night. The patient was under medication for epileptic seizure, osteoporosis and hyperthyroidism. X-rays demonstrated calcification of the PCL. CT and MRI excluded any other intra-articular and extra-articular pathology. Arthroscopic debridement of the calcium deposits was performed and the symptoms resolved immediately, while the postoperative x-rays were normal. Histological examination confirmed the calcium nature of the lesion. Two years postoperatively the patient remains asymptomatic. PMID:22669889

  10. A Unifying Probability Example.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.

    2002-01-01

    Presents an example from probability and statistics that ties together several topics including the mean and variance of a discrete random variable, the binomial distribution and its particular mean and variance, the sum of independent random variables, the mean and variance of the sum, and the central limit theorem. Uses Excel to illustrate these…

  11. Varga: On Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Varga, Tamas

    This booklet resulted from a 1980 visit by the author, a Hungarian mathematics educator, to the Teachers' Center Project at Southern Illinois University at Edwardsville. Included are activities and problems that make probablility concepts accessible to young children. The topics considered are: two probability games; choosing two beads; matching…

  12. Univariate Probability Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leemis, Lawrence M.; Luckett, Daniel J.; Powell, Austin G.; Vermeer, Peter E.

    2012-01-01

    We describe a web-based interactive graphic that can be used as a resource in introductory classes in mathematical statistics. This interactive graphic presents 76 common univariate distributions and gives details on (a) various features of the distribution such as the functional form of the probability density function and cumulative distribution…

  13. Approximating Integrals Using Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Maruszewski, Richard F., Jr.; Caudle, Kyle A.

    2005-01-01

    As part of a discussion on Monte Carlo methods, which outlines how to use probability expectations to approximate the value of a definite integral. The purpose of this paper is to elaborate on this technique and then to show several examples using visual basic as a programming tool. It is an interesting method because it combines two branches of…

  14. Transoral decompression and posterior stabilisation in Morquio's disease.

    PubMed Central

    Ashraf, J; Crockard, H A; Ransford, A O; Stevens, J M

    1991-01-01

    A 3.5 year old boy with Morquio's disease was referred with a persisting left hemiparesis four months after a fall and was found to have craniocervical junction compression due to atlantoaxial subluxation and significant anterior soft tissue compression. Transient unconsciousness at the time of the fall was probably due to medullary concussion as a result of hyperextension, not a head injury. Spinal cord compression due to atlantoaxial subluxation at the craniovertebral junction is a major cause of disability and death in these patients. Once cervical myelopathy appears, early posterior occipitocervical fusion has been advocated in order to arrest the progression of neurological disability and this is successful in most cases. This conventional approach was considered unsafe because of the significant anterior compression. A combined anterior transoral decompression with posterior fusion to deal with this particularly difficult problem is described. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 PMID:1755646

  15. Downregulation of the posterior medial frontal cortex prevents social conformity.

    PubMed

    Klucharev, Vasily; Munneke, Moniek A M; Smidts, Ale; Fernández, Guillén

    2011-08-17

    We often change our behavior to conform to real or imagined group pressure. Social influence on our behavior has been extensively studied in social psychology, but its neural mechanisms have remained largely unknown. Here we demonstrate that the transient downregulation of the posterior medial frontal cortex by theta-burst transcranial magnetic stimulation reduces conformity, as indicated by reduced conformal adjustments in line with group opinion. Both the extent and probability of conformal behavioral adjustments decreased significantly relative to a sham and a control stimulation over another brain area. The posterior part of the medial frontal cortex has previously been implicated in behavioral and attitudinal adjustments. Here, we provide the first interventional evidence of its critical role in social influence on human behavior.

  16. Longevity of Posterior Composite Restorations

    PubMed Central

    Opdam, N.J.M.; van de Sande, F.H.; Bronkhorst, E.; Cenci, M.S.; Bottenberg, P.; Pallesen, U.; Gaengler, P.; Lindberg, A.; Huysmans, M.C.D.N.J.M.; van Dijken, J.W.

    2014-01-01

    The aim of this meta-analysis, based on individual participant data from several studies, was to investigate the influence of patient-, materials-, and tooth-related variables on the survival of posterior resin composite restorations. Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we conducted a search resulting in 12 longitudinal studies of direct posterior resin composite restorations with at least 5 years’ follow-up. Original datasets were still available, including placement/failure/censoring of restorations, restored surfaces, materials used, reasons for clinical failure, and caries-risk status. A database including all restorations was constructed, and a multivariate Cox regression method was used to analyze variables of interest [patient (age; gender; caries-risk status), jaw (upper; lower), number of restored surfaces, resin composite and adhesive materials, and use of glass-ionomer cement as base/liner (present or absent)]. The hazard ratios with respective 95% confidence intervals were determined, and annual failure rates were calculated for subgroups. Of all restorations, 2,816 (2,585 Class II and 231 Class I) were included in the analysis, of which 569 failed during the observation period. Main reasons for failure were caries and fracture. The regression analyses showed a significantly higher risk of failure for restorations in high-caries-risk individuals and those with a higher number of restored surfaces. PMID:25048250

  17. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomputers, have made it possible to solve a number of electronic structure problems exactly using the full configuration interaction (FCI) method within a subspace of the complete Hilbert space. These exact results can be used to benchmark approximate techniques that are applicable to a wider range of chemical and physical problems. The methodology of many-electron quantum chemistry is reviewed. Methods are considered in detail for performing FCI calculations. The application of FCI methods to several three-electron problems in molecular physics are discussed. A number of benchmark applications of FCI wave functions are described. Atomic basis sets and the development of improved methods for handling very large basis sets are discussed: these are then applied to a number of chemical and spectroscopic problems; to transition metals; and to problems involving potential energy surfaces. Although the experiences described give considerable grounds for optimism about the general ability to perform accurate calculations, there are several problems that have proved less tractable, at least with current computer resources, and these and possible solutions are discussed.

  18. Gaussianization for fast and accurate inference from cosmological data

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schuhmann, Robert L.; Joachimi, Benjamin; Peiris, Hiranya V.

    2016-06-01

    We present a method to transform multivariate unimodal non-Gaussian posterior probability densities into approximately Gaussian ones via non-linear mappings, such as Box-Cox transformations and generalizations thereof. This permits an analytical reconstruction of the posterior from a point sample, like a Markov chain, and simplifies the subsequent joint analysis with other experiments. This way, a multivariate posterior density can be reported efficiently, by compressing the information contained in Markov Chain Monte Carlo samples. Further, the model evidence integral (i.e. the marginal likelihood) can be computed analytically. This method is analogous to the search for normal parameters in the cosmic microwave background, but is more general. The search for the optimally Gaussianizing transformation is performed computationally through a maximum-likelihood formalism; its quality can be judged by how well the credible regions of the posterior are reproduced. We demonstrate that our method outperforms kernel density estimates in this objective. Further, we select marginal posterior samples from Planck data with several distinct strongly non-Gaussian features, and verify the reproduction of the marginal contours. To demonstrate evidence computation, we Gaussianize the joint distribution of data from weak lensing and baryon acoustic oscillations, for different cosmological models, and find a preference for flat Λcold dark matter. Comparing to values computed with the Savage-Dickey density ratio, and Population Monte Carlo, we find good agreement of our method within the spread of the other two.

  19. Bayesian Probability Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

    2014-06-01

    Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

  20. Superpositions of probability distributions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jizba, Petr; Kleinert, Hagen

    2008-09-01

    Probability distributions which can be obtained from superpositions of Gaussian distributions of different variances v=σ2 play a favored role in quantum theory and financial markets. Such superpositions need not necessarily obey the Chapman-Kolmogorov semigroup relation for Markovian processes because they may introduce memory effects. We derive the general form of the smearing distributions in v which do not destroy the semigroup property. The smearing technique has two immediate applications. It permits simplifying the system of Kramers-Moyal equations for smeared and unsmeared conditional probabilities, and can be conveniently implemented in the path integral calculus. In many cases, the superposition of path integrals can be evaluated much easier than the initial path integral. Three simple examples are presented, and it is shown how the technique is extended to quantum mechanics.

  1. Efficient Probability Sequences

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-08-18

    Ungar (2014), to produce a distinct forecasting system. The system consists of the method for eliciting individual subjective forecasts together with...E. Stone, and L. H. Ungar (2014). Two reasons to make aggregated probability forecasts more extreme. Decision Analysis 11 (2), 133–145. Bickel, J. E...Letters 91 (3), 425–429. Mellers, B., L. Ungar , J. Baron, J. Ramos, B. Gurcay, K. Fincher, S. E. Scott, D. Moore, P. Atanasov, S. A. Swift, et al. (2014

  2. Searching with Probabilities

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-07-26

    DeGroot , Morris H. Probability and Statistic. Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 1975. [Gillogly 78] Gillogly, J.J. Performance...distribution [ DeGroot 751 has just begun. The beta distribution has several features that might make it a more reasonable choice. As with the normal-based...1982. [Cooley 65] Cooley, J.M. and Tukey, J.W. An algorithm for the machine calculation of complex Fourier series. Math. Comp. 19, 1965. [ DeGroot 75

  3. Regional flood probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Troutman, B.M.; Karlinger, M.R.

    2003-01-01

    The T-year annual maximum flood at a site is defined to be that streamflow, that has probability 1/T of being exceeded in any given year, and for a group of sites the corresponding regional flood probability (RFP) is the probability that at least one site will experience a T-year flood in any given year. The RFP depends on the number of sites of interest and on the spatial correlation of flows among the sites. We present a Monte Carlo method for obtaining the RFP and demonstrate that spatial correlation estimates used in this method may be obtained with rank transformed data and therefore that knowledge of the at-site peak flow distribution is not necessary. We examine the extent to which the estimates depend on specification of a parametric form for the spatial correlation function, which is known to be nonstationary for peak flows. It is shown in a simulation study that use of a stationary correlation function to compute RFPs yields satisfactory estimates for certain nonstationary processes. Application of asymptotic extreme value theory is examined, and a methodology for separating channel network and rainfall effects on RFPs is suggested. A case study is presented using peak flow data from the state of Washington. For 193 sites in the Puget Sound region it is estimated that a 100-year flood will occur on the average every 4,5 years.

  4. BIOACCESSIBILITY TESTS ACCURATELY ESTIMATE ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Hazards of soil-borne Pb to wild birds may be more accurately quantified if the bioavailability of that Pb is known. To better understand the bioavailability of Pb to birds, we measured blood Pb concentrations in Japanese quail (Coturnix japonica) fed diets containing Pb-contaminated soils. Relative bioavailabilities were expressed by comparison with blood Pb concentrations in quail fed a Pb acetate reference diet. Diets containing soil from five Pb-contaminated Superfund sites had relative bioavailabilities from 33%-63%, with a mean of about 50%. Treatment of two of the soils with P significantly reduced the bioavailability of Pb. The bioaccessibility of the Pb in the test soils was then measured in six in vitro tests and regressed on bioavailability. They were: the “Relative Bioavailability Leaching Procedure” (RBALP) at pH 1.5, the same test conducted at pH 2.5, the “Ohio State University In vitro Gastrointestinal” method (OSU IVG), the “Urban Soil Bioaccessible Lead Test”, the modified “Physiologically Based Extraction Test” and the “Waterfowl Physiologically Based Extraction Test.” All regressions had positive slopes. Based on criteria of slope and coefficient of determination, the RBALP pH 2.5 and OSU IVG tests performed very well. Speciation by X-ray absorption spectroscopy demonstrated that, on average, most of the Pb in the sampled soils was sorbed to minerals (30%), bound to organic matter 24%, or present as Pb sulfate 18%. Ad

  5. Imaging of the Posterior Skull Base.

    PubMed

    Job, Joici; Branstetter, Barton F

    2017-01-01

    The posterior skull base can be involved by a variety of pathologic processes. They can be broadly classified as: traumatic, neoplastic, vascular, and inflammatory. Pathology in the posterior skull base usually involves the lower cranial nerves, either as a source of pathology or a secondary source of symptoms. This review will categorize pathology arising in the posterior skull base and describe how it affects the skull base itself and surrounding structures.

  6. Posterior peritoneal recesses: assessment using CT

    SciTech Connect

    Rubenstein, W.A.; Auh, Y.H.; Zirinsky, K.; Kneeland, J.B.; Whalen, J.P.; Kazam, E.

    1985-08-01

    Intraperitoneal compartments may extend posteriorly to the level of known retroperitoneal structures at several locations within the abdomen. These locations include the posterior subhepatic or hepatorenal space, the splenorenal space, the retropancreatic recess, the paracolic gutters, and the pararectal fossae. Because of their posterior location, fluid collections within these compartments may be mistaken radiologically for retroperitoneal masses. The sectional anatomy of these spaces and particularly their appearance on computed tomographic scans, are illustrated in this paper.

  7. Posterior ankle impingement in the dancer.

    PubMed

    Moser, Brad R

    2011-01-01

    Dancers spend a lot of time in the relevé position in demi-pointe and en pointe in their training and their careers. Pain from both osseous and soft tissue causes may start to occur in the posterior aspect of their ankle. This article reviews the potential causes of posterior ankle impingement in dancers. It will discuss the clinical evaluation of a dancer and the appropriate workup and radiographic studies needed to further evaluate a dancer with suspected posterior ankle impingement.

  8. Accurate spectral color measurements

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hiltunen, Jouni; Jaeaeskelaeinen, Timo; Parkkinen, Jussi P. S.

    1999-08-01

    Surface color measurement is of importance in a very wide range of industrial applications including paint, paper, printing, photography, textiles, plastics and so on. For a demanding color measurements spectral approach is often needed. One can measure a color spectrum with a spectrophotometer using calibrated standard samples as a reference. Because it is impossible to define absolute color values of a sample, we always work with approximations. The human eye can perceive color difference as small as 0.5 CIELAB units and thus distinguish millions of colors. This 0.5 unit difference should be a goal for the precise color measurements. This limit is not a problem if we only want to measure the color difference of two samples, but if we want to know in a same time exact color coordinate values accuracy problems arise. The values of two instruments can be astonishingly different. The accuracy of the instrument used in color measurement may depend on various errors such as photometric non-linearity, wavelength error, integrating sphere dark level error, integrating sphere error in both specular included and specular excluded modes. Thus the correction formulas should be used to get more accurate results. Another question is how many channels i.e. wavelengths we are using to measure a spectrum. It is obvious that the sampling interval should be short to get more precise results. Furthermore, the result we get is always compromise of measuring time, conditions and cost. Sometimes we have to use portable syste or the shape and the size of samples makes it impossible to use sensitive equipment. In this study a small set of calibrated color tiles measured with the Perkin Elmer Lamda 18 and the Minolta CM-2002 spectrophotometers are compared. In the paper we explain the typical error sources of spectral color measurements, and show which are the accuracy demands a good colorimeter should have.

  9. Retrieve Tether Survival Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    cuts of the tether by meteorites and orbital debris , is calculated to be 99.934% for the planned experiment duration of six months or less. This is...due to the unlikely event of a strike by a large piece of orbital debris greater than 1 meter in size cutting all the lines of the tether at once. The...probability of the tether surviving multiple cuts by meteoroid and orbital debris impactors smaller than 5 cm in diameter is 99.9993% at six months

  10. Large radiopaque lesion in the posterior mandible: A challenging case

    PubMed Central

    Sasirekha, B.; Mathew, Philips; Ganeshkumar, M.; Austin, Ravi David; Prabhu, Raj

    2016-01-01

    Radiopaque lesions of the jawbones are frequently encountered in dental radiographs. A variety of conditions such as chronic inflammation, soft tissue calcifications, fibrosseous lesions, odontogenic tumors, and bone neoplasms can manifest as radiopaque lesions on the jawbones. These radiopaque lesions are often difficult to distinguish from each other, hence making the formulation of differential diagnosis challenging. A thorough patient's history and clinical examination supplemented by appropriate investigations will enable the clinician in narrowing down the differential diagnosis and to identify the condition accurately. Presented here is a case of the large radiopaque lesion on posterior mandible surrounded by lytic areas in a 20-year-old male patient. PMID:27829771

  11. Ganglion cyst on the posterior cruciate ligament: a case report

    PubMed Central

    Durante, Jaclyn A.

    2009-01-01

    Objective: To present the diagnostic and clinical features of a ganglion cyst located on the posterior cruciate ligament and create awareness amongst clinicians of this uncommon diagnosis. Clinical Features: A 24-year old woman complaining of intermittent left knee pain brought on by an increase in mileage during her training for a half-marathon. A diagnosis of mild chondromalacia patella and a ganglion cyst on the posterior cruciate ligament was made via diagnostic imaging. Intervention and outcome: Patient was followed up with imaging. The patient chose to withdraw a surgical consult due to patient preference. No conservative treatment was provided. Conclusion: Although chondromalacia patella is the more probable, a secondary diagnostic consideration in this patient could be a ganglion cyst. A ganglion cyst on the posterior cruciate ligament is an uncommon diagnosis and the clinical manifestations are variable and non-specific. It is important to be aware of its clinical features and to obtain appropriate methods of imaging to generate the diagnosis promptly. PMID:20037698

  12. Computing posterior probabilities for score-based alignments using ppALIGN.

    PubMed

    Wolfsheimer, Stefan; Hartmann, Alexander; Rabus, Ralf; Nuel, Gregory

    2012-05-16

    Score-based pairwise alignments are widely used in bioinformatics in particular with molecular database search tools, such as the BLAST family. Due to sophisticated heuristics, such algorithms are usually fast but the underlying scoring model unfortunately lacks a statistical description of the reliability of the reported alignments. In particular, close to gaps, in low-score or low-complexity regions, a huge number of alternative alignments arise which results in a decrease of the certainty of the alignment. ppALIGN is a software package that uses hidden Markov Model techniques to compute position-wise reliability of score-based pairwise alignments of DNA or protein sequences. The design of the model allows for a direct connection between the scoring function and the parameters of the probabilistic model. For this reason it is suitable to analyze the outcomes of popular score based aligners and search tools without having to choose a complicated set of parameters. By contrast, our program only requires the classical score parameters (the scoring function and gap costs). The package comes along with a library written in C++, a standalone program for user defined alignments (ppALIGN) and another program (ppBLAST) which can process a complete result set of BLAST. The main algorithms essentially exhibit a linear time complexity (in the alignment lengths), and they are hence suitable for on-line computations. We have also included alternative decoding algorithms to provide alternative alignments. ppALIGN is a fast program/library that helps detect and quantify questionable regions in pairwise alignments. Due to its structure, the input/output interface it can to be connected to other post-processing tools. Empirically, we illustrate its usefulness in terms of correctly predicted reliable regions for sequences generated using the ROSE model for sequence evolution, and identify sensor-specific regions in the denitrifying betaproteobacterium Aromatoleum aromaticum.

  13. Estimation of Posterior Probabilities Using Multivariate Smoothing Splines and Generalized Cross-Validation.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-09-01

    nonlinear optimization problem in n -M variables but there is still the problem of choos - ing the value of the smoothing parameter. Since the conditional...method, The Annals of Statistics 10, 3. pp. 795-810. Smith. C.A.B. (1947). Some exrmples of discrimination, Annals of Eugenics 13, pp 272-282. Tapia. R. A

  14. Frontal-posterior coherence and cognitive function in older adults.

    PubMed

    Fleck, Jessica I; Kuti, Julia; Brown, Jessica; Mahon, Jessica R; Gayda-Chelder, Christine

    2016-12-01

    The reliable measurement of brain health and cognitive function is essential in mitigating the negative effects associated with cognitive decline through early and accurate diagnosis of change. The present research explored the relationship between EEG coherence for electrodes within frontal and posterior regions, as well as coherence between frontal and posterior electrodes and performance on standard neuropsychological measures of memory and executive function. EEG coherence for eyes-closed resting-state EEG activity was calculated for delta, theta, alpha, beta, and gamma frequency bands. Participants (N=66; mean age=67.15years) had their resting-state EEGs recorded and completed a neuropsychological battery that assessed memory and executive function, two cognitive domains that are significantly affected during aging. A positive relationship was observed between coherence within the frontal region and performance on measures of memory and executive function for delta and beta frequency bands. In addition, an inverse relationship was observed for coherence between frontal and posterior electrode pairs, particularly within the theta frequency band, and performance on Digit Span Sequencing, a measure of working memory. The present research supports a more substantial link between EEG coherence, rather than spectral power, and cognitive function. Continued study in this area may enable EEG to be applied broadly as a diagnostic measure of cognitive ability.

  15. Posterior repair and sexual function

    PubMed Central

    Komesu, Yuko M.; Rogers, Rebecca G.; Kammerer-Doak, Dorothy N.; Barber, Matthew D.; Olsen, Ambre L.

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of posterior repair (PR) on sexual function in patients who have undergone incontinence and/or pelvic reconstructive surgery. STUDY DESIGN A cohort study of women who underwent incontinence and/or prolapse surgery was performed. Participants completed the pelvic organ prolapse urinary incontinence sexual questionnaire (PISQ) before and after the operation. PISQ scores were compared between women who underwent PR and women who did not. RESULTS Of 73 study participants, 30 women underwent PR; 43 women did not (no PR). Although there was no difference in dyspareunia between groups pre-op, dyspareunia prevalence post-op was significantly lower in the no PR group. Preoperative PISQ scores were similar between groups. After the operation, both groups significantly improved their PISQ scores, without a difference between groups. CONCLUSION Although the incidence of dyspareunia differed between PR and no PR groups, overall improvement in sexual function was reflected in improved total PISQ scores that occurred irrespective of PR performance. PMID:17618777

  16. People's conditional probability judgments follow probability theory (plus noise).

    PubMed

    Costello, Fintan; Watts, Paul

    2016-09-01

    A common view in current psychology is that people estimate probabilities using various 'heuristics' or rules of thumb that do not follow the normative rules of probability theory. We present a model where people estimate conditional probabilities such as P(A|B) (the probability of A given that B has occurred) by a process that follows standard frequentist probability theory but is subject to random noise. This model accounts for various results from previous studies of conditional probability judgment. This model predicts that people's conditional probability judgments will agree with a series of fundamental identities in probability theory whose form cancels the effect of noise, while deviating from probability theory in other expressions whose form does not allow such cancellation. Two experiments strongly confirm these predictions, with people's estimates on average agreeing with probability theory for the noise-cancelling identities, but deviating from probability theory (in just the way predicted by the model) for other identities. This new model subsumes an earlier model of unconditional or 'direct' probability judgment which explains a number of systematic biases seen in direct probability judgment (Costello & Watts, 2014). This model may thus provide a fully general account of the mechanisms by which people estimate probabilities.

  17. Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedance of annual floods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lye, L. M.

    1990-03-01

    In this paper Lindley's Bayesian approximation procedure is used to obtain the Bayes estimate of the probability of exceedence of a flood discharge. The Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence has been shown by S.K. Sinha to be equivalent to the estimate of the probability of exceedence from the predictive or Bayesian disribution, of a future flood discharge. The evaluation of complex ratios of multiple integrals common in a Bayesian analysis is not necessary using Lindley's procedure. The Bayes estimates are compared to those obtained by the method of maximum likelihood and the method of moments. The results show that Bayes estimates of the probability of exceedence are larger as expected, but have smaller posterior standard deviations.

  18. Probability state modeling theory.

    PubMed

    Bagwell, C Bruce; Hunsberger, Benjamin C; Herbert, Donald J; Munson, Mark E; Hill, Beth L; Bray, Chris M; Preffer, Frederic I

    2015-07-01

    As the technology of cytometry matures, there is mounting pressure to address two major issues with data analyses. The first issue is to develop new analysis methods for high-dimensional data that can directly reveal and quantify important characteristics associated with complex cellular biology. The other issue is to replace subjective and inaccurate gating with automated methods that objectively define subpopulations and account for population overlap due to measurement uncertainty. Probability state modeling (PSM) is a technique that addresses both of these issues. The theory and important algorithms associated with PSM are presented along with simple examples and general strategies for autonomous analyses. PSM is leveraged to better understand B-cell ontogeny in bone marrow in a companion Cytometry Part B manuscript. Three short relevant videos are available in the online supporting information for both of these papers. PSM avoids the dimensionality barrier normally associated with high-dimensionality modeling by using broadened quantile functions instead of frequency functions to represent the modulation of cellular epitopes as cells differentiate. Since modeling programs ultimately minimize or maximize one or more objective functions, they are particularly amenable to automation and, therefore, represent a viable alternative to subjective and inaccurate gating approaches.

  19. Treatment implications of posterior fossa ependymoma subgroups.

    PubMed

    Ramaswamy, Vijay; Taylor, Michael D

    2016-11-15

    Posterior fossa ependymoma comprises two distinct molecular entities, ependymoma_posterior fossa A (EPN_PFA) and ependymoma_posterior fossa B (EPN_PFB), with differentiable gene expression profiles. As yet, the response of the two entities to treatment is unclear. To determine the relationship between the two molecular subgroups of posterior fossa ependymoma and treatment, we studied a cohort of 820 patients with molecularly profiled, clinically annotated posterior fossa ependymomas. We found that the strongest predictor of poor outcome in patients with posterior fossa ependymoma across the entire age spectrum was molecular subgroup EPN_PFA, which was recently reported in the paper entitled "Therapeutic impact of cytoreductive surgery and irradiation of posterior fossa ependymoma in the molecular era: a retrospective multicohort analysis" in the Journal of Clinical Oncology. Patients with incompletely resected EPN_PFA tumors had a very poor outcome despite receiving adjuvant radiation therapy, whereas a substantial proportion of patients with EPN_PFB tumors can be cured with surgery alone.

  20. Recurrent posterior shoulder instability. Diagnosis and treatment.

    PubMed

    Pollock, R G; Bigliani, L U

    1993-06-01

    Recurrent posterior glenohumeral instability is regarded as a difficult problem to diagnose and treat. A careful history and physical examination are the most helpful tools in making this diagnosis. A positive posterior stress test, demonstrable posterior subluxation, and a sulcus sign are frequently present on examination. Special roentgenographic studies, such as the computerized arthrotomography (arthro-CT) scan, may be used in cases in which plain roentgenographs suggest bony glenoid abnormalities. When conservative therapy fails, there is no consensus on the operative treatment. Procedures that address the soft tissues, such as capsulorrhaphy and posterior labral repair, as well as those that alter the bony geometry of the joint, such as posterior bone blocks and glenoid or humeral osteotomies, have been described. Capsular laxity is the most common pathologic finding in the authors' experience, and they favor the use of a posterior-inferior capsular shift procedure to correct this problem. Augmentation of the repair with a posterior bone block is reserved for unusual cases, such as when glenoid hypoplasia is present or in certain revision situations.

  1. Posterior labral injury in contact athletes.

    PubMed

    Mair, S D; Zarzour, R H; Speer, K P

    1998-01-01

    Nine athletes (seven football offensive linemen, one defensive lineman, and one lacrosse player) were found at arthroscopy to have posterior labral detachment from the glenoid. In our series, this lesion is specific to contact athletes who engage their opponents with arms in front of the body. All patients had pain with bench pressing and while participating in their sport, diminishing their ability to play effectively. Conservative measures were ineffective in relieving their symptoms. Examination under anesthesia revealed symmetric glenohumeral translation bilaterally, without evidence of posterior instability. Treatment consisted of glenoid rim abradement and posterior labral repair with a bioabsorbable tack. All patients returned to complete at least one full season of contact sports and weightlifting without pain (minimum follow-up, > or = 2 years). Although many injuries leading to subluxation of the glenohumeral joint occur when an unanticipated force is applied, contact athletes ready their shoulder muscles in anticipation of impact with opponents. This leads to a compressive force at the glenohumeral joint. We hypothesize that, in combination with a posteriorly directed force at impact, the resultant vector is a shearing force to the posterior labrum and articular surface. Repeated exposure leads to posterior labral detachment without capsular injury. Posterior labral reattachment provides consistently good results, allowing the athlete to return to competition.

  2. Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.

    2008-01-01

    In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.

  3. A Probability Distribution over Latent Causes, in the Orbitofrontal Cortex

    PubMed Central

    Niv, Yael; Norman, Kenneth A.

    2016-01-01

    The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been implicated in both the representation of “state,” in studies of reinforcement learning and decision making, and also in the representation of “schemas,” in studies of episodic memory. Both of these cognitive constructs require a similar inference about the underlying situation or “latent cause” that generates our observations at any given time. The statistically optimal solution to this inference problem is to use Bayes' rule to compute a posterior probability distribution over latent causes. To test whether such a posterior probability distribution is represented in the OFC, we tasked human participants with inferring a probability distribution over four possible latent causes, based on their observations. Using fMRI pattern similarity analyses, we found that BOLD activity in the OFC is best explained as representing the (log-transformed) posterior distribution over latent causes. Furthermore, this pattern explained OFC activity better than other task-relevant alternatives, such as the most probable latent cause, the most recent observation, or the uncertainty over latent causes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Our world is governed by hidden (latent) causes that we cannot observe, but which generate the observations we see. A range of high-level cognitive processes require inference of a probability distribution (or “belief distribution”) over the possible latent causes that might be generating our current observations. This is true for reinforcement learning and decision making (where the latent cause comprises the true “state” of the task), and for episodic memory (where memories are believed to be organized by the inferred situation or “schema”). Using fMRI, we show that this belief distribution over latent causes is encoded in patterns of brain activity in the orbitofrontal cortex, an area that has been separately implicated in the representations of both states and schemas. PMID:27466328

  4. Fusion probability in heavy nuclei

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Tathagata; Nath, S.; Pal, Santanu

    2015-03-01

    Background: Fusion between two massive nuclei is a very complex process and is characterized by three stages: (a) capture inside the potential barrier, (b) formation of an equilibrated compound nucleus (CN), and (c) statistical decay of the CN leading to a cold evaporation residue (ER) or fission. The second stage is the least understood of the three and is the most crucial in predicting yield of superheavy elements (SHE) formed in complete fusion reactions. Purpose: A systematic study of average fusion probability, , is undertaken to obtain a better understanding of its dependence on various reaction parameters. The study may also help to clearly demarcate onset of non-CN fission (NCNF), which causes fusion probability, PCN, to deviate from unity. Method: ER excitation functions for 52 reactions leading to CN in the mass region 170-220, which are available in the literature, have been compared with statistical model (SM) calculations. Capture cross sections have been obtained from a coupled-channels code. In the SM, shell corrections in both the level density and the fission barrier have been included. for these reactions has been extracted by comparing experimental and theoretical ER excitation functions in the energy range ˜5 %-35% above the potential barrier, where known effects of nuclear structure are insignificant. Results: has been shown to vary with entrance channel mass asymmetry, η (or charge product, ZpZt ), as well as with fissility of the CN, χCN. No parameter has been found to be adequate as a single scaling variable to determine . Approximate boundaries have been obtained from where starts deviating from unity. Conclusions: This study quite clearly reveals the limits of applicability of the SM in interpreting experimental observables from fusion reactions involving two massive nuclei. Deviation of from unity marks the beginning of the domain of dynamical models of fusion. Availability of precise ER cross

  5. Approaching system equilibrium with accurate or not accurate feedback information in a two-route system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhao, Xiao-mei; Xie, Dong-fan; Li, Qi

    2015-02-01

    With the development of intelligent transport system, advanced information feedback strategies have been developed to reduce traffic congestion and enhance the capacity. However, previous strategies provide accurate information to travelers and our simulation results show that accurate information brings negative effects, especially in delay case. Because travelers prefer to the best condition route with accurate information, and delayed information cannot reflect current traffic condition but past. Then travelers make wrong routing decisions, causing the decrease of the capacity and the increase of oscillations and the system deviating from the equilibrium. To avoid the negative effect, bounded rationality is taken into account by introducing a boundedly rational threshold BR. When difference between two routes is less than the BR, routes have equal probability to be chosen. The bounded rationality is helpful to improve the efficiency in terms of capacity, oscillation and the gap deviating from the system equilibrium.

  6. Central posterior capsule pigmentation in a patient with pigment dispersion and previous ocular trauma: a case report.

    PubMed

    Al-Mezaine, Hani S

    2010-01-01

    We report a 55-year-old man with unusually dense, unilateral central posterior capsule pigmentation associated with the characteristic clinical features of pigment dispersion syndrome, including a Krukenberg's spindle and dense trabecular pigmentation in both eyes. A history of an old blunt ocular trauma probably caused separation of the anterior hyaloid from the back of the lens, thereby creating an avenue by which pigment could reach the potential space of Berger's from the posterior chamber.

  7. A Tale of Two Probabilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Kendig, Keith

    2013-01-01

    Two contestants debate the notorious probability problem of the sex of the second child. The conclusions boil down to explication of the underlying scenarios and assumptions. Basic principles of probability theory are highlighted.

  8. Coherent Assessment of Subjective Probability

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1981-03-01

    known results of de Finetti (1937, 1972, 1974), Smith (1961), and Savage (1971) and some recent results of Lind- ley (1980) concerning the use of...provides the motivation for de Finettis definition of subjective probabilities as coherent bet prices. From the definition of the probability measure...subjective probability, the probability laws which are traditionally stated as axioms or definitions are obtained instead as theorems. (De Finetti F -7

  9. Posterior Hip Pain in an Athletic Population

    PubMed Central

    Frank, Rachel M.; Slabaugh, Mark A.; Grumet, Robert C.; Virkus, Walter W.; Bush-Joseph, Charles A.; Nho, Shane J.

    2010-01-01

    Context: Posterior hip pain is a relatively uncommon but increasingly recognized complaint in the orthopaedic community. Patient complaints and presentations are often vague or nonspecific, making diagnosis and subsequent treatment decisions difficult. The purposes of this article are to review the anatomy and pathophysiology related to posterior hip pain in the athletic patient population. Evidence Acquisition: Data were collected through a thorough review of the literature via a MEDLINE search of all relevant articles between 1980 and 2010. Results: Many patients who complain of posterior hip pain actually have pain referred from another part of the body—notably, the lumbar spine or sacroiliac joint. Treatment options for posterior hip pain are typically nonoperative; however, surgery is warranted in some cases. Conclusions: Recent advancements in the understanding of hip anatomy, pathophysiology, and treatment options have enabled physicians to better diagnosis athletic hip injuries and select patients for appropriate treatment. PMID:23015944

  10. Posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) injury - aftercare

    MedlinePlus

    Adib F, Curtis C, Bienkowski P Micheli LJ. Posterior cruciate ligament sprain. In: Frontera WR, Silver JK, Rizzo TD Jr, eds. Essentials of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation: Musculoskeletal Disorders, ...

  11. Analysis of the efficiency of the Ensemble Kalman Filter for Marginal and Joint Posteriors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Morzfeld, M.; Hodyss, D.; Snyder, C.

    2015-12-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is widely used to sample a probability density function (pdf) generated by a stochastic model conditioned by noisy data. This pdf can be either a joint posterior that describes the evolution of the state of the system in time, conditioned on all the data up to the present, or a particular marginal of this posterior that describes the state at the current time conditioned on all past data. We show that the EnKF collapses in the same way and under even broader conditions as a particle filter when it samples the joint posterior. However, this does not imply that EnKF collapses when it samples the marginal posterior. We we show that a localized and inflated EnKF can efficiently sample this marginal, and argue that the marginal posterior is often the more useful pdf in geophysics. This explains the wide applicability of EnKF in this field. We further investigate the typical tuning of EnKF, in which one attempts to match the mean square error (MSE) to the marginal posterior variance, and show that sampling error may be huge, even if the MSE is moderate.

  12. Atomic Transition Probabilities for Rare Earths

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, J. J.; Anderson, Heidi M.; den Hartog, E. A.; Wickliffe, M. E.; Lawler, J. E.

    1996-10-01

    Accurate absolute atomic transition probabilities for selected neutral and singly ionized rare earth elements including Tm, Dy, and Ho are being measured. The increasing use of rare earths in high intensity discharge lamps provides motivation; the data are needed for diagnosing and modeling the lamps. Radiative lifetimes, measured using time resolved laser induced fluorescence (LIF), are combined with branching fractions, measured using a large Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS), to determine accurate absolute atomic transition probabilities. More than 15,000 LIF decay curves from Tm and Dy atoms and ions in slow beams have been recorded and analyzed. Radiative lifetimes for 298 levels of TmI and TmII and for 450 levels of DyI and DyII are determined. Branching fractions are extracted from spectra recorded using the 1.0 m FTS at the National Solar Observatory. Branching fractions and absolute transition probabilities for 500 of the strongest TmI and TmII lines are complete. Representative lifetime and branching fraction data will be presented and discussed. Supported by Osram Sylvania Inc. and the NSF.

  13. Gibbs Sampling for Marginal Posterior Expectations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1991-11-19

    Achcar and Smith (1989) shows that performance of the Laplace method is often very sensitive to parametrization. Morris (1988) offers expansions based on...Berkeley Symp. 1, 453-468. Lindley, D.V. (1980). "Approximate Bayesian Methods" in Bayesian Statistics, J.M. Bernardo, M.H. DeGroot , D.V. Lindley...A.F.M. Smith, University Press, Valencia, Spain. Morris , C. "Approximating Posterior Distributions and Posterior Moments" In: Bayesian Statistics 3, J.M

  14. [Posterior cortical atrophy (Benson-syndrome)].

    PubMed

    Rózsa, Anikó; Szilvássy, Ildikó; Kovács, Krisztina; Boór, Krisztina; Gács, Gyula

    2010-01-30

    We present the characteristics of posterior cortical atrophy--a very rare cortical dementia--in a 69 year old woman's case. Our patient's symptoms began with a visual problem which was initially explained by ophthalmological disorder. After neurological exam visual agnosia was diagnosed apart from other cognitive disorder (alexia without agraphia, acalculia, prosopagnosia, constructional disorder, clock-time recognition disorder, dressing apraxia, visuospatial disorientation). The brain MRI showed bilateral asymmetric parieto-occipital atrophy which is characteristic of posterior cortical atrophy.

  15. Posterior Wnts Have Distinct Roles in Specification and Patterning of the Planarian Posterior Region.

    PubMed

    Sureda-Gómez, Miquel; Pascual-Carreras, Eudald; Adell, Teresa

    2015-11-05

    The wnt signaling pathway is an intercellular communication mechanism essential in cell-fate specification, tissue patterning and regional-identity specification. A βcatenin-dependent signal specifies the AP (Anteroposterior) axis of planarians, both during regeneration of new tissues and during normal homeostasis. Accordingly, four wnts (posterior wnts) are expressed in a nested manner in central and posterior regions of planarians. We have analyzed the specific role of each posterior wnt and the possible cooperation between them in specifying and patterning planarian central and posterior regions. We show that each posterior wnt exerts a distinct role during re-specification and maintenance of the central and posterior planarian regions, and that the integration of the different wnt signals (βcatenin dependent and independent) underlies the patterning of the AP axis from the central region to the tip of the tail. Based on these findings and data from the literature, we propose a model for patterning the planarian AP axis.

  16. Vertigo due to posterior circulation stroke.

    PubMed

    Kim, Ji Soo; Lee, Hyung

    2013-07-01

    Stroke in the distribution of the posterior circulation may present as acute onset spontaneous vertigo and imbalance. Although vertigo due to posterior circulation stroke is usually associated with other neurologic symptoms or signs, small infarcts in the cerebellum or brainstem can present with vertigo without other localizing symptoms. Approximately 17% of patients with isolated posterior inferior cerebellar artery territory infarction presented with isolated vertigo, nystagmus, and postural unsteadiness. A head impulse test can differentiate acute isolated vertigo associated with cerebellar stroke from more benign disorders involving the inner ear. Sometimes acute isolated audiovestibular loss can be the initial symptom of impending posterior circulation ischemic stroke (particularly within the territory of the anterior inferior cerebellar artery). In this case, evaluation of isolated audiovestibular loss may prevent the progression of acute vertigo and hearing loss into more widespread areas of infarction in the posterior circulation. In this article, the clinical syndromes and signs of acute vestibular syndrome due to posterior circulation stroke involving the brainstem and cerebellum are summarized.

  17. Probabilities of transversions and transitions.

    PubMed

    Vol'kenshtein, M V

    1976-01-01

    The values of the mean relative probabilities of transversions and transitions have been refined on the basis of the data collected by Jukes and found to be equal to 0.34 and 0.66, respectively. Evolutionary factors increase the probability of transversions to 0.44. The relative probabilities of individual substitutions have been determined, and a detailed classification of the nonsense mutations has been given. Such mutations are especially probable in the UGG (Trp) codon. The highest probability of AG, GA transitions correlates with the lowest mean change in the hydrophobic nature of the amino acids coded.

  18. Posterior urethral polyp with type I posterior urethral valves: a rare association in a neonate.

    PubMed

    Kesan, Krushnakumar V; Gupta, Rahul Kumar; Kothari, Paras; Gupta, Abhaya; Mudkhedkar, Kedar; Kamble, Ravikiran; Dikshit, K Vishesh

    2014-06-01

    Urethral polyp is a rare cause of bladder outlet obstruction, voiding dysfunction, and hematuria in the pediatric age group. Urethral polyps are rarely associated with other congenital urinary tract anomalies. In this study, we report a case of solitary posterior urethral polyp with type I posterior urethral valve in a 7-day-old neonate presented with urinary retention and deranged renal function. The polyp was diagnosed on cystoscopy. Transurethral resection of the polyp with posterior urethral valve fulguration was performed. Pathologic assessment revealed a fibroepithelial lesion, which was consistent with congenital posterior urethral polyp.

  19. Probability workshop to be better in probability topic

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed

    2015-02-01

    The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.

  20. Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ballentine, Leslie E.

    2016-08-01

    Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.

  1. Defining Predictive Probability Functions for Species Sampling Models.

    PubMed

    Lee, Jaeyong; Quintana, Fernando A; Müller, Peter; Trippa, Lorenzo

    2013-01-01

    We review the class of species sampling models (SSM). In particular, we investigate the relation between the exchangeable partition probability function (EPPF) and the predictive probability function (PPF). It is straightforward to define a PPF from an EPPF, but the converse is not necessarily true. In this paper we introduce the notion of putative PPFs and show novel conditions for a putative PPF to define an EPPF. We show that all possible PPFs in a certain class have to define (unnormalized) probabilities for cluster membership that are linear in cluster size. We give a new necessary and sufficient condition for arbitrary putative PPFs to define an EPPF. Finally, we show posterior inference for a large class of SSMs with a PPF that is not linear in cluster size and discuss a numerical method to derive its PPF.

  2. Accurate transition probabilities from large-scale multiconfiguration calculations - A tribute to Charlotte Froese Fischer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jönsson, Per; Godefroid, Michel; Gaigalas, Gediminas; Bieroń, Jacek; Brage, Tomas

    2013-07-01

    The development of multiconfiguration computer packages for atomic structure calculations is reviewed with special attention to the work of Charlotte Froese Fischer. The underlying theory is described along with methodologies to choose basis expansions of configuration state functions. Calculations of energies and transitions rates are presented and the accuracy of the results is assessed. Limitations of multiconfiguration methods are discussed and it is shown how these limitations can be circumvented by a division of the original large-scale computational problem into a number of smaller problems.

  3. Posterior dental size reduction in hominids: the Atapuerca evidence.

    PubMed

    Bermúdez de Castro, J M; Nicolas, M E

    1995-04-01

    In order to reassess previous hypotheses concerning dental size reduction of the posterior teeth during Pleistocene human evolution, current fossil dental evidence is examined. This evidence includes the large sample of hominid teeth found in recent excavations (1984-1993) in the Sima de los Huesos Middle Pleistocene cave site of the Sierra de Atapuerca (Burgos, Spain). The lower fourth premolars and molars of the Atapuerca hominids, probably older than 300 Kyr, have dimensions similar to those of modern humans. Further, these hominids share the derived state of other features of the posterior teeth with modern humans, such as a similar relative molar size and frequent absence of the hypoconulid, thus suggesting a possible case of parallelism. We believe that dietary changes allowed size reduction of the posterior teeth during the Middle Pleistocene, and the present evidence suggests that the selective pressures that operated on the size variability of these teeth were less restrictive than what is assumed by previous models of dental reduction. Thus, the causal relationship between tooth size decrease and changes in food-preparation techniques during the Pleistocene should be reconsidered. Moreover, the present evidence indicates that the differential reduction of the molars cannot be explained in terms of restriction of available growth space. The molar crown area measurements of a modern human sample were also investigated. The results of this study, as well as previous similar analyses, suggest that a decrease of the rate of cell proliferation, which affected the later-forming crown regions to a greater extent, may be the biological process responsible for the general and differential dental size reduction that occurred during human evolution.

  4. Accurate Evaluation of Quantum Integrals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Galant, D. C.; Goorvitch, D.; Witteborn, Fred C. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    Combining an appropriate finite difference method with Richardson's extrapolation results in a simple, highly accurate numerical method for solving a Schrodinger's equation. Important results are that error estimates are provided, and that one can extrapolate expectation values rather than the wavefunctions to obtain highly accurate expectation values. We discuss the eigenvalues, the error growth in repeated Richardson's extrapolation, and show that the expectation values calculated on a crude mesh can be extrapolated to obtain expectation values of high accuracy.

  5. The Probabilities of Unique Events

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-08-30

    probabilities into quantum mechanics, and some psychologists have argued that they have a role to play in accounting for errors in judgment [30]. But, in...Discussion The mechanisms underlying naive estimates of the probabilities of unique events are largely inaccessible to consciousness , but they...Can quantum probability provide a new direc- tion for cognitive modeling? Behavioral and Brain Sciences (in press). 31. Paolacci G, Chandler J

  6. Probability Surveys, Conditional Probability, and Ecological Risk Assessment

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  7. PROBABILITY SURVEYS, CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES, AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Asscssment Program EMAP) can be analyzed with a conditional probability analysis (CPA) to conduct quantitative probabi...

  8. PROBABILITY SURVEYS , CONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES AND ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT

    EPA Science Inventory

    We show that probability-based environmental resource monitoring programs, such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (U.S. EPA) Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program, and conditional probability analysis can serve as a basis for estimating ecological risk over ...

  9. Posterior cruciate ligament removal contributes to abnormal knee motion during posterior stabilized total knee arthroplasty.

    PubMed

    Cromie, Melinda J; Siston, Robert A; Giori, Nicholas J; Delp, Scott L

    2008-11-01

    Abnormal anterior translation of the femur on the tibia has been observed in mid flexion (20-60 degrees ) following posterior stabilized total knee arthroplasty. The underlying biomechanical causes of this abnormal motion remain unknown. The purpose of this study was to isolate the effects of posterior cruciate ligament removal on knee motion after total knee arthroplasty. We posed two questions: Does removing the posterior cruciate ligament introduce abnormal anterior femoral translation? Does implanting a posterior stabilized prosthesis change the kinematics from the cruciate deficient case? Using a navigation system, we measured passive knee kinematics of ten male osteoarthritic patients during surgery after initial exposure, after removing the anterior cruciate ligament, after removing the posterior cruciate ligament, and after implanting the prosthesis. Passively flexing and extending the knee, we calculated anterior femoral translation and the flexion angle at which femoral rollback began. Removing the posterior cruciate ligament doubled anterior translation (from 5.1 +/- 4.3 mm to 10.4 +/- 5.1 mm) and increased the flexion angle at which femoral rollback began (from 31.2 +/- 9.6 degrees to 49.3 +/- 7.3 degrees). Implanting the prosthesis increased the amount of anterior translation (to 16.1 +/- 4.4 mm), and did not change the flexion angle at which femoral rollback began. Abnormal anterior translation was observed in low and mid flexion (0-60 degrees) after removing the posterior cruciate ligament, and normal motion was not restored by the posterior stabilized prosthesis.

  10. Information Processing Using Quantum Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Behera, Laxmidhar

    2006-11-01

    This paper presents an information processing paradigm that introduces collective response of multiple agents (computational units) while the level of intelligence associated with the information processing has been increased manifold. It is shown that if the potential field of the Schroedinger wave equation is modulated using a self-organized learning scheme, then the probability density function associated with the stochastic data is transferred to the probability amplitude function which is the response of the Schroedinger wave equation. This approach illustrates that information processing of data with stochastic behavior can be efficiently done using quantum probability instead of classical probability. The proposed scheme has been demonstrated through two applications: denoising and adaptive control.

  11. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are < 1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  12. The relationship between species detection probability and local extinction probability

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Alpizar-Jara, R.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.; Sauer, J.R.; Pollock, K.H.; Rosenberry, C.S.

    2004-01-01

    In community-level ecological studies, generally not all species present in sampled areas are detected. Many authors have proposed the use of estimation methods that allow detection probabilities that are <1 and that are heterogeneous among species. These methods can also be used to estimate community-dynamic parameters such as species local extinction probability and turnover rates (Nichols et al. Ecol Appl 8:1213-1225; Conserv Biol 12:1390-1398). Here, we present an ad hoc approach to estimating community-level vital rates in the presence of joint heterogeneity of detection probabilities and vital rates. The method consists of partitioning the number of species into two groups using the detection frequencies and then estimating vital rates (e.g., local extinction probabilities) for each group. Estimators from each group are combined in a weighted estimator of vital rates that accounts for the effect of heterogeneity. Using data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey, we computed such estimates and tested the hypothesis that detection probabilities and local extinction probabilities were negatively related. Our analyses support the hypothesis that species detection probability covaries negatively with local probability of extinction and turnover rates. A simulation study was conducted to assess the performance of vital parameter estimators as well as other estimators relevant to questions about heterogeneity, such as coefficient of variation of detection probabilities and proportion of species in each group. Both the weighted estimator suggested in this paper and the original unweighted estimator for local extinction probability performed fairly well and provided no basis for preferring one to the other.

  13. Bayesian analysis for OPC modeling with film stack properties and posterior predictive checking

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Burbine, Andrew; Fenger, Germain; Sturtevant, John; Fryer, David

    2016-10-01

    The use of optical proximity correction (OPC) demands increasingly accurate models of the photolithographic process. Model building and analysis techniques in the data science community have seen great strides in the past two decades which make better use of available information. This paper expands upon Bayesian analysis methods for parameter selection in lithographic models by increasing the parameter set and employing posterior predictive checks. Work continues with a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) search algorithm to generate posterior distributions of parameters. Models now include wafer film stack refractive indices, n and k, as parameters, recognizing the uncertainties associated with these values. Posterior predictive checks are employed as a method to validate parameter vectors discovered by the analysis, akin to cross validation.

  14. Fundus autofluorescence imaging in posterior uveitis.

    PubMed

    Durrani, Khayyam; Foster, C Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Although the phenomenon of fundus autofluorescence has been known for decades, it has only recently been recognized as a measure of retinal pigment epithelial function and health. Characteristic fundus autofluorescence patterns have been described in eyes affected by inflammation of the posterior segment, and these patterns have provided insights into the pathogenesis of posterior uveitis entities. In addition, preliminary data indicate that fundus autofluorescence characteristics may serve as markers of disease activity, allow prediction of visual prognosis, and may help determine the adequacy of therapy. We provide an overview of the current state of fundus autofluorescence imaging technology and review our current knowledge of fundus autoflourescence findings and their clinical use in the posterior uveitis entities.

  15. Reversible cortical blindness: posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome.

    PubMed

    Bandyopadhyay, Sabyasachi; Mondal, Kanchan Kumar; Das, Somnath; Gupta, Anindya; Biswas, Jaya; Bhattacharyya, Subir Kumar; Biswas, Gautam

    2010-11-01

    Cortical blindness is defined as visual failure with preserved pupillary reflexes in structurally intact eyes due to bilateral lesions affecting occipital cortex. Bilateral oedema and infarction of the posterior and middle cerebral arterial territory, trauma, glioma and meningioma of the occipital cortex are the main causes of cortical blindness. Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) refers to the reversible subtype of cortical blindness and is usually associated with hypertension, diabetes, immunosuppression, puerperium with or without eclampsia. Here, 3 cases of PRES with complete or partial visual recovery following treatment in 6-month follow-up are reported.

  16. Posterior cortical atrophy: a brief review.

    PubMed

    Kirshner, Howard S; Lavin, Patrick J M

    2006-11-01

    Posterior cortical atrophy is a striking clinical syndrome in which a dementing illness begins with visual symptoms. Initially, the problem may seem to be loss of elementary vision, but over time the patient develops features of visual agnosia, topographical difficulty, optic ataxia, simultanagnosia, ocular apraxia (Balint's syndrome), alexia, acalculia, right-left confusion, and agraphia (Gerstmann's syndrome), and later a more generalized dementia. Occasional patients have visual hallucinations and signs of Parkinson's disease or Lewy body dementia. A number of different neuropathologic disorders are associated with posterior cortical atrophy.

  17. Capture probabilities for secondary resonances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malhotra, Renu

    1990-01-01

    A perturbed pendulum model is used to analyze secondary resonances, and it is shown that a self-similarity between secondary and primary resonances exists. Henrard's (1982) theory is used to obtain formulas for the capture probability into secondary resonances. The tidal evolution of Miranda and Umbriel is considered as an example, and significant probabilities of capture into secondary resonances are found.

  18. Deep convolutional networks for automated detection of posterior-element fractures on spine CT

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roth, Holger R.; Wang, Yinong; Yao, Jianhua; Lu, Le; Burns, Joseph E.; Summers, Ronald M.

    2016-03-01

    Injuries of the spine, and its posterior elements in particular, are a common occurrence in trauma patients, with potentially devastating consequences. Computer-aided detection (CADe) could assist in the detection and classification of spine fractures. Furthermore, CAD could help assess the stability and chronicity of fractures, as well as facilitate research into optimization of treatment paradigms. In this work, we apply deep convolutional networks (ConvNets) for the automated detection of posterior element fractures of the spine. First, the vertebra bodies of the spine with its posterior elements are segmented in spine CT using multi-atlas label fusion. Then, edge maps of the posterior elements are computed. These edge maps serve as candidate regions for predicting a set of probabilities for fractures along the image edges using ConvNets in a 2.5D fashion (three orthogonal patches in axial, coronal and sagittal planes). We explore three different methods for training the ConvNet using 2.5D patches along the edge maps of `positive', i.e. fractured posterior-elements and `negative', i.e. non-fractured elements. An experienced radiologist retrospectively marked the location of 55 displaced posterior-element fractures in 18 trauma patients. We randomly split the data into training and testing cases. In testing, we achieve an area-under-the-curve of 0.857. This corresponds to 71% or 81% sensitivities at 5 or 10 false-positives per patient, respectively. Analysis of our set of trauma patients demonstrates the feasibility of detecting posterior-element fractures in spine CT images using computer vision techniques such as deep convolutional networks.

  19. Treatment rationale of fractured posterior teeth.

    PubMed

    Silvestri, A R; Singh, I

    1978-11-01

    The four types of fractures most frequently encountered in posterior teeth--obliquely directed complete fractures, vertically directed complete fractures, obliquely directed incomplete fractures, and vertically directed incomplete fractures--have been described. A detailed treatment approach for each type has been presented.

  20. Posterior Predictive Model Checking in Bayesian Networks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crawford, Aaron

    2014-01-01

    This simulation study compared the utility of various discrepancy measures within a posterior predictive model checking (PPMC) framework for detecting different types of data-model misfit in multidimensional Bayesian network (BN) models. The investigated conditions were motivated by an applied research program utilizing an operational complex…

  1. Complicated posterior capsulorhexis: aetiology, management, and outcome

    PubMed Central

    Van Cauwenberge, F.; Rakic, J.; Galand, A.

    1997-01-01

    BACKGROUND—A 1 year retrospective analysis of 650 patients, who underwent a posterior capsulorhexis on their intact capsules, was performed to examine the incidence of complications, their aetiologies, and the outcome.
METHODS—Data were analysed on 32 patients with complicated capsulorhexis for type of surgery, preoperative and postoperative factors, and relative risk factors for vitreous issue.
RESULTS—There were six patients with vitreous loss. The posterior capsulorhexis was uncontrolled in 14 cases and difficult to perform in 12 cases. Implantation into the capsular bag was possible in all cases. Systemic vascular hazard and old age (over 80 years) were found to be statistically significant risk factors for vitreous loss (p=0.002 and p=0.03 respectively). The mean follow up was 13.5 months (range 4-25 months). One patient developed a retinal detachment and two had a transient clinical cystoid macular oedema. Visual acuity of ≥ 20/40 was obtained in 93% of the patients.
CONCLUSION—Loss of control of the posterior capsulorhexis has a low incidence but can lead to serious problems during surgery. A good knowledge of the technique is necessary to complete the procedure with a posterior capsulorhexis of the optimum size without vitreous loss.

 PMID:9135382

  2. Subspecialization in the human posterior medial cortex

    PubMed Central

    Bzdok, Danilo; Heeger, Adrian; Langner, Robert; Laird, Angela R.; Fox, Peter T.; Palomero-Gallagher, Nicola; Vogt, Brent A.; Zilles, Karl; Eickhoff, Simon B.

    2014-01-01

    The posterior medial cortex (PMC) is particularly poorly understood. Its neural activity changes have been related to highly disparate mental processes. We therefore investigated PMC properties with a data-driven exploratory approach. First, we subdivided the PMC by whole-brain coactivation profiles. Second, functional connectivity of the ensuing PMC regions was compared by task-constrained meta-analytic coactivation mapping (MACM) and task-unconstrained resting-state correlations (RSFC). Third, PMC regions were functionally described by forward/reverse functional inference. A precuneal cluster was mostly connected to the intraparietal sulcus, frontal eye fields, and right temporo-parietal junction; associated with attention and motor tasks. A ventral posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) cluster was mostly connected to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and middle left inferior parietal cortex (IPC); associated with facial appraisal and language tasks. A dorsal PCC cluster was mostly connected to the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, anterior/posterior IPC, posterior midcingulate cortex, and left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex; associated with delay discounting. A cluster in the retrosplenial cortex was mostly connected to the anterior thalamus and hippocampus. Furthermore, all PMC clusters were congruently coupled with the default mode network according to task-constrained but not task-unconstrained connectivity. We thus identified distinct regions in the PMC and characterized their neural networks and functional implications. PMID:25462801

  3. Fuchs's heterochromic cyclitis and posterior capsulotomy.

    PubMed Central

    Roussel, T J; Coster, D J

    1985-01-01

    We report a case of intractable glaucoma following an uncomplicated secondary posterior capsulotomy in a 48-year-old male with Fuchs's heterochromic cyclitis. The patient had been free of inflammation and glaucoma since cataract extraction 27 years previously. We also report the results of phenotypic analysis of lymphocytes removed from the anterior chamber. Images PMID:3859323

  4. Posterior dislocation of the shoulder in athletes.

    PubMed

    Samilson, R L; Prieto, V

    1983-07-01

    Although posterior dislocation of the shoulder is a rare injury in athletes, failure to recognize and properly manage acute dislocation may have serious consequences. The article discusses the incidence, mechanism of injury, classification, pathologic findings, clinical and radiologic diagnosis, and management.

  5. BAER suppression during posterior fossa dural opening

    PubMed Central

    Shields, Christopher B.; Shields, Lisa B. E.; Jiang, Yi Dan; Yao, Tom; Zhang, Yi Ping; Sun, David A.

    2015-01-01

    Background: Intraoperative monitoring with brainstem auditory evoked responses (BAER) provides an early warning signal of potential neurological injury and may avert tissue damage to the auditory pathway or brainstem. Unexplained loss of the BAER signal in the operating room may present a dilemma to the neurosurgeon. Methods: This paper documents two patients who displayed a unique mechanism of suppression of the BAER apparent within minutes following dural opening for resection of a posterior fossa meningioma. Results: In two patients with anterior cerebellopontine angle and clival meningiomas, there was a significant deterioration of the BAER soon after durotomy but prior to cerebellar retraction and tumor removal. Intracranial structures in the posterior fossa lying between the tumor and dural opening were shifted posteriorly after durotomy. Conclusion: We hypothesized that the cochlear nerve and vessels entering the acoustic meatus were compressed or stretched when subjected to tissue shift. This movement caused cochlear nerve dysfunction that resulted in BAER suppression. BAER was partially restored after the tumor was decompressed, dura repaired, and bone replaced. BAER was not suppressed following durotomy for removal of a meningioma lying posterior to the cochlear complex. Insight into the mechanisms of durotomy-induced BAER inhibition would allay the neurosurgeon's anxiety during the operation. PMID:25883849

  6. Approximation to the Probability Density at the Output of a Photmultiplier Tube

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stokey, R. J.; Lee, P. J.

    1983-01-01

    The probability density of the integrated output of a photomultiplier tube (PMT) is approximated by the Gaussian, Rayleigh, and Gamma probability densities. The accuracy of the approximations depends on the signal energy alpha: the Gamma distribution is accurate for all alpha, the Raleigh distribution is accurate for small alpha (approximate or less than 1 photon) and the Gaussian distribution is accurate for large alpha (approximate or greater than 10 photons).

  7. Definition of the Neutrosophic Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smarandache, Florentin

    2014-03-01

    Neutrosophic probability (or likelihood) [1995] is a particular case of the neutrosophic measure. It is an estimation of an event (different from indeterminacy) to occur, together with an estimation that some indeterminacy may occur, and the estimation that the event does not occur. The classical probability deals with fair dice, coins, roulettes, spinners, decks of cards, random works, while neutrosophic probability deals with unfair, imperfect such objects and processes. For example, if we toss a regular die on an irregular surface which has cracks, then it is possible to get the die stuck on one of its edges or vertices in a crack (indeterminate outcome). The sample space is in this case: {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, indeterminacy}. So, the probability of getting, for example 1, is less than 1/6. Since there are seven outcomes. The neutrosophic probability is a generalization of the classical probability because, when the chance of determinacy of a stochastic process is zero, these two probabilities coincide. The Neutrosophic Probability that of an event A occurs is NP (A) = (ch (A) , ch (indetA) , ch (A ̲)) = (T , I , F) , where T , I , F are subsets of [0,1], and T is the chance that A occurs, denoted ch(A); I is the indeterminate chance related to A, ch(indetermA) ; and F is the chance that A does not occur, ch (A ̲) . So, NP is a generalization of the Imprecise Probability as well. If T, I, and F are crisp numbers then: - 0 <= T + I + F <=3+ . We used the same notations (T,I,F) as in neutrosophic logic and set.

  8. Failure probability under parameter uncertainty.

    PubMed

    Gerrard, R; Tsanakas, A

    2011-05-01

    In many problems of risk analysis, failure is equivalent to the event of a random risk factor exceeding a given threshold. Failure probabilities can be controlled if a decisionmaker is able to set the threshold at an appropriate level. This abstract situation applies, for example, to environmental risks with infrastructure controls; to supply chain risks with inventory controls; and to insurance solvency risks with capital controls. However, uncertainty around the distribution of the risk factor implies that parameter error will be present and the measures taken to control failure probabilities may not be effective. We show that parameter uncertainty increases the probability (understood as expected frequency) of failures. For a large class of loss distributions, arising from increasing transformations of location-scale families (including the log-normal, Weibull, and Pareto distributions), the article shows that failure probabilities can be exactly calculated, as they are independent of the true (but unknown) parameters. Hence it is possible to obtain an explicit measure of the effect of parameter uncertainty on failure probability. Failure probability can be controlled in two different ways: (1) by reducing the nominal required failure probability, depending on the size of the available data set, and (2) by modifying of the distribution itself that is used to calculate the risk control. Approach (1) corresponds to a frequentist/regulatory view of probability, while approach (2) is consistent with a Bayesian/personalistic view. We furthermore show that the two approaches are consistent in achieving the required failure probability. Finally, we briefly discuss the effects of data pooling and its systemic risk implications.

  9. Cluster membership probability: polarimetric approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Medhi, Biman J.; Tamura, Motohide

    2013-04-01

    Interstellar polarimetric data of the six open clusters Hogg 15, NGC 6611, NGC 5606, NGC 6231, NGC 5749 and NGC 6250 have been used to estimate the membership probability for the stars within them. For proper-motion member stars, the membership probability estimated using the polarimetric data is in good agreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. However, for proper-motion non-member stars, the membership probability estimated by the polarimetric method is in total disagreement with the proper-motion cluster membership probability. The inconsistencies in the determined memberships may be because of the fundamental differences between the two methods of determination: one is based on stellar proper motion in space and the other is based on selective extinction of the stellar output by the asymmetric aligned dust grains present in the interstellar medium. The results and analysis suggest that the scatter of the Stokes vectors q (per cent) and u (per cent) for the proper-motion member stars depends on the interstellar and intracluster differential reddening in the open cluster. It is found that this method could be used to estimate the cluster membership probability if we have additional polarimetric and photometric information for a star to identify it as a probable member/non-member of a particular cluster, such as the maximum wavelength value (λmax), the unit weight error of the fit (σ1), the dispersion in the polarimetric position angles (overline{ɛ }), reddening (E(B - V)) or the differential intracluster reddening (ΔE(B - V)). This method could also be used to estimate the membership probability of known member stars having no membership probability as well as to resolve disagreements about membership among different proper-motion surveys.

  10. Holographic Probabilities in Eternal Inflation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bousso, Raphael

    2006-11-01

    In the global description of eternal inflation, probabilities for vacua are notoriously ambiguous. The local point of view is preferred by holography and naturally picks out a simple probability measure. It is insensitive to large expansion factors or lifetimes and so resolves a recently noted paradox. Any cosmological measure must be complemented with the probability for observers to emerge in a given vacuum. In lieu of anthropic criteria, I propose to estimate this by the entropy that can be produced in a local patch. This allows for prior-free predictions.

  11. Posterior Density Estimation for a Class of On-line Quality Control Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dorea, Chang C. Y.; Santos, Walter B.

    2011-11-01

    On-line quality control during production calls for a periodical monitoring of the produced items according to some prescribed strategy. It is reasonable to assume the existence of internal non-observable variables so that the carried out monitoring is only partially reliable. Under the setting of a Hidden Markov Model (HMM), posterior density estimates are obtained via particle filter type algorithms. Making use of kernel density methods the stable regime densities are approximated and false-alarm probabilities are estimated.

  12. Probability theory, not the very guide of life.

    PubMed

    Juslin, Peter; Nilsson, Håkan; Winman, Anders

    2009-10-01

    Probability theory has long been taken as the self-evident norm against which to evaluate inductive reasoning, and classical demonstrations of violations of this norm include the conjunction error and base-rate neglect. Many of these phenomena require multiplicative probability integration, whereas people seem more inclined to linear additive integration, in part, at least, because of well-known capacity constraints on controlled thought. In this article, the authors show with computer simulations that when based on approximate knowledge of probabilities, as is routinely the case in natural environments, linear additive integration can yield as accurate estimates, and as good average decision returns, as estimates based on probability theory. It is proposed that in natural environments people have little opportunity or incentive to induce the normative rules of probability theory and, given their cognitive constraints, linear additive integration may often offer superior bounded rationality.

  13. Logic, probability, and human reasoning.

    PubMed

    Johnson-Laird, P N; Khemlani, Sangeet S; Goodwin, Geoffrey P

    2015-04-01

    This review addresses the long-standing puzzle of how logic and probability fit together in human reasoning. Many cognitive scientists argue that conventional logic cannot underlie deductions, because it never requires valid conclusions to be withdrawn - not even if they are false; it treats conditional assertions implausibly; and it yields many vapid, although valid, conclusions. A new paradigm of probability logic allows conclusions to be withdrawn and treats conditionals more plausibly, although it does not address the problem of vapidity. The theory of mental models solves all of these problems. It explains how people reason about probabilities and postulates that the machinery for reasoning is itself probabilistic. Recent investigations accordingly suggest a way to integrate probability and deduction.

  14. Dinosaurs, Dinosaur Eggs, and Probability.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Teppo, Anne R.; Hodgson, Ted

    2001-01-01

    Outlines several recommendations for teaching probability in the secondary school. Offers an activity that employs simulation by hand and using a programmable calculator in which geometry, analytical geometry, and discrete mathematics are explored. (KHR)

  15. Joint probabilities and quantum cognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    de Barros, J. Acacio

    2012-12-01

    In this paper we discuss the existence of joint probability distributions for quantumlike response computations in the brain. We do so by focusing on a contextual neural-oscillator model shown to reproduce the main features of behavioral stimulus-response theory. We then exhibit a simple example of contextual random variables not having a joint probability distribution, and describe how such variables can be obtained from neural oscillators, but not from a quantum observable algebra.

  16. Posterior Wnts Have Distinct Roles in Specification and Patterning of the Planarian Posterior Region

    PubMed Central

    Sureda-Gómez, Miquel; Pascual-Carreras, Eudald; Adell, Teresa

    2015-01-01

    The wnt signaling pathway is an intercellular communication mechanism essential in cell-fate specification, tissue patterning and regional-identity specification. A βcatenin-dependent signal specifies the AP (Anteroposterior) axis of planarians, both during regeneration of new tissues and during normal homeostasis. Accordingly, four wnts (posterior wnts) are expressed in a nested manner in central and posterior regions of planarians. We have analyzed the specific role of each posterior wnt and the possible cooperation between them in specifying and patterning planarian central and posterior regions. We show that each posterior wnt exerts a distinct role during re-specification and maintenance of the central and posterior planarian regions, and that the integration of the different wnt signals (βcatenin dependent and independent) underlies the patterning of the AP axis from the central region to the tip of the tail. Based on these findings and data from the literature, we propose a model for patterning the planarian AP axis. PMID:26556349

  17. Anterior canal BPPV and apogeotropic posterior canal BPPV: two rare forms of vertical canalolithiasis.

    PubMed

    Califano, L; Salafia, F; Mazzone, S; Melillo, M G; Califano, M

    2014-06-01

    therapeutic manoeuvres, the authors propose a grading system for diagnosis of AC and APC: "certain" when a canalar conversion in ipsilateral typical posterior canal BPPV is obtained; "probable" when APC or AC are directly resolved; "possible" when disease is not resolved and cerebral neuroimaging is negative for neurological diseases. Our results show that the oculomotor patterns proposed in the literature are effective in diagnosing APC and AC, and that APC is more frequent than AC. Both of these rare forms of vertical canal BPPV can be treated effectively with liberatory manoeuvres.

  18. Peripapillary and posterior scleral mechanics--part I: development of an anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive model.

    PubMed

    Girard, Michaël J A; Downs, J Crawford; Burgoyne, Claude F; Suh, J-K Francis

    2009-05-01

    The sclera is the white outer shell and principal load-bearing tissue of the eye as it sustains the intraocular pressure. We have hypothesized that the mechanical properties of the posterior sclera play a significant role in and are altered by the development of glaucoma-an ocular disease manifested by structural damage to the optic nerve head. An anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive model is presented to simulate the mechanical behavior of the posterior sclera under acute elevations of intraocular pressure. The constitutive model is derived from fiber-reinforced composite theory, and incorporates stretch-induced stiffening of the reinforcing collagen fibers. Collagen fiber alignment was assumed to be multidirectional at local material points, confined within the plane tangent to the scleral surface, and described by the semicircular von Mises distribution. The introduction of a model parameter, namely, the fiber concentration factor, was used to control collagen fiber alignment along a preferred fiber orientation. To investigate the effects of scleral collagen fiber alignment on the overall behaviors of the posterior sclera and optic nerve head, finite element simulations of an idealized eye were performed. The four output quantities analyzed were the scleral canal expansion, the scleral canal twist, the posterior scleral canal deformation, and the posterior laminar deformation. A circumferential fiber organization in the sclera restrained scleral canal expansion but created posterior laminar deformation, whereas the opposite was observed with a meridional fiber organization. Additionally, the fiber concentration factor acted as an amplifying parameter on the considered outputs. The present model simulation suggests that the posterior sclera has a large impact on the overall behavior of the optic nerve head. It is therefore primordial to provide accurate mechanical properties for this tissue. In a companion paper (Girard, Downs, Bottlang, Burgoyne, and Suh, 2009

  19. Normal probability plots with confidence.

    PubMed

    Chantarangsi, Wanpen; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J; Wan, Fang

    2015-01-01

    Normal probability plots are widely used as a statistical tool for assessing whether an observed simple random sample is drawn from a normally distributed population. The users, however, have to judge subjectively, if no objective rule is provided, whether the plotted points fall close to a straight line. In this paper, we focus on how a normal probability plot can be augmented by intervals for all the points so that, if the population distribution is normal, then all the points should fall into the corresponding intervals simultaneously with probability 1-α. These simultaneous 1-α probability intervals provide therefore an objective mean to judge whether the plotted points fall close to the straight line: the plotted points fall close to the straight line if and only if all the points fall into the corresponding intervals. The powers of several normal probability plot based (graphical) tests and the most popular nongraphical Anderson-Darling and Shapiro-Wilk tests are compared by simulation. Based on this comparison, recommendations are given in Section 3 on which graphical tests should be used in what circumstances. An example is provided to illustrate the methods.

  20. [Manual rotation of occiput posterior presentation].

    PubMed

    Le Ray, C; Goffinet, F

    2011-10-01

    Delivery in occiput posterior position is associated with a higher risk of cesarean section, operative vaginal delivery and severe perineal tears. We report the technic of manual rotation described by Tarnier and Chantreuil and used daily in our maternity center. Only five studies were published on this topic; all of them demonstrate that manual rotation decreases the risk of cesarean section. Moreover, it could decrease the risk of prolonged second stage, chorioamnionitis and third and fourth degree tears in comparison with expectant management. However, manual rotation is associated with a two-fold higher risk of cervical and vaginal lacerations. Manual rotation performed with an adequate technic is an efficient and safe manœuvre to avoid complications associated with occiput posterior vaginal delivery.

  1. Posterior tibial nerve lesions in ankle arthroscopy.

    PubMed

    Cugat, Ramon; Ares, Oscar; Cuscó, Xavier; Garcia, Montserrat; Samitier, Gonzalo; Seijas, Roberto

    2008-05-01

    Ankle arthroscopy provides a minimally invasive approach to the diagnosis and treatment of certain ankle disorders. Neurological complications resulting from ankle arthroscopy have been well documented in orthopaedic and podiatric literature. Owing to the superficial location of the ankle joint and the abundance of overlying periarticular neurovascular structures, complications reported in ankle arthroscopy are greater than those reported for other joints. In particular, all reported neurovascular injuries following ankle arthroscopy have been the direct result of distractor pin or portal placement. The standard posteromedial portal has recognized risks because of the proximity of the posterior neurovascular structures. There can be considerable variability in the course of these portals and their proximity to the neurovascular structures. We found one report of intra-articular damage to the posterior tibial nerve as a result of ankle arthroscopy in the English-language literature and we report this paper as a second case described in the literature.

  2. Quantifying variability in the planum temporale: a probability map.

    PubMed

    Westbury, C F; Zatorre, R J; Evans, A C

    1999-06-01

    The acquisition of definitive evidence for systematic hemispheric asymmetries in the size of the planum temporale (PT) has been restricted by difficulties in identifying, standardizing and measuring the region of interest. In this paper an operational definition for identifying the problematic posterior border of the PT on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans is proposed. An interactive voxel-painting program was used to identify and label the PT simultaneously in horizontal, sagittal and coronal planes in MRI scans, transformed into the standardized Talairach-Tournoux stereo-taxic space, from 50 normal right-handed volunteers. Both grey matter volume and cortical surface area of the PT were measured, while controlling for individual variation in overall brain shape and volume. The labeled tissue was averaged together to produce a probability map in standardized space of the region of interest. The PT region is highly variable, with no single voxel being labeled with a probability of >65%. In this study there were no significant hemispheric differences in volume or area of the PT. An asymmetry in area and volume was introduced by using an alternative method - the 'knife-cut' method - for identifying the posterior border. Implications for functional neuroimaging of the PT are discussed.

  3. Progressive visual agnosia with posterior cortical atrophy.

    PubMed

    Mizuno, M; Sartori, G; Liccione, D; Battelli, L; Campo, R

    1996-05-01

    A patient of posterior cortical atrophy characterized by early signs of progressive visual agnosia documented by repeated neuropsychological tests, is reported. SPECT and MRI findings showed left unilateral parieto-occipital involvement in the earlier stage. A PET study executed eight months later showed bilateral parieto-occipital hypometabolism, but predominantly in the left hemisphere. This suggests that the degeneration may have developed asymmetrically, progressing from left unilateral to bilateral.

  4. Endoscopic posterior interhemispheric complete corpus callosotomy.

    PubMed

    Sood, Sandeep; Asano, Eishi; Altinok, Deniz; Luat, Aimee

    2016-12-01

    Traditionally corpus callosotomy is done through a craniotomy centered at the coronal suture, with the aid of a microscope. This involves dissecting through the interhemispheric fissure below the falx to reach the corpus callosum. The authors describe a posterior interhemispheric approach to complete corpus callosotomy with an endoscope, which bypasses the need to perform interhemispheric dissection because the falx is generally close to the corpus callosum in this region.

  5. Material Properties of the Posterior Human Sclera☆

    PubMed Central

    Grytz, Rafael; Fazio, Massimo A.; Girard, Michael J.A.; Libertiaux, Vincent; Bruno, Luigi; Gardiner, Stuart; Girkin, Christopher A.; Downs, J. Crawford

    2013-01-01

    To characterize the material properties of posterior and peripapillary sclera from human donors, and to investigate the macro- and micro-scale strains as potential control mechanisms governing mechanical homeostasis. Posterior scleral shells from 9 human donors aged 57–90 years were subjected to IOP elevations from 5 to 45 mmHg and the resulting full-field displacements were recorded using laser speckle interferometry. Eye-specific finite element models were generated based on experimentally measured scleral shell surface geometry and thickness. Inverse numerical analyses were performed to identify material parameters for each eye by matching experimental deformation measurements to model predictions using a microstructure-based constitutive formulation that incorporates the crimp response and anisotropic architecture of scleral collagen fibrils. The material property fitting produced models that fit both the overall and local deformation responses of posterior scleral shells very well. The nonlinear stiffening of the sclera with increasing IOP was well reproduced by the uncrimping of scleral collagen fibrils, and a circumferentially-aligned ring of collagen fibrils around the scleral canal was predicted in all eyes. Macroscopic in-plane strains were significantly higher in peripapillary region then in the mid-periphery. In contrast, the meso- and micro-scale strains at the collagen network and collagen fibril level were not significantly different between regions. The elastic response of the posterior human sclera can be characterized by the anisotropic architecture and crimp response of scleral collagen fibrils. The similar collagen fibril strains in the peripapillary and mid-peripheral regions support the notion that the scleral collagen architecture including the circumpapillary ring of collagen fibrils evolved to establish optimal load bearing conditions at the collagen fibril level. PMID:23684352

  6. Iris fixation of posterior chamber intraocular lenses.

    PubMed

    Yazdani-Abyaneh, Alireza; Djalilian, Ali R; Fard, Masoud Aghsaei

    2016-12-01

    We introduce a technique for iris fixation of a posterior chamber intraocular lens (IOL) in which most of the procedure is done outside the eye. This minimizes intraocular manipulation, maximizes corneal endothelial preservation, and avoids the risk for IOL drop into the vitreous cavity intraoperatively. The IOL is fixated to the most peripheral part of the iris, resulting in a rounder pupil. Sutures are placed at exact positions on the haptics, resulting in a well-centered IOL.

  7. Cervical disc hernia operations through posterior laminoforaminotomy

    PubMed Central

    Yolas, Coskun; Ozdemir, Nuriye Guzin; Okay, Hilmi Onder; Kanat, Ayhan; Senol, Mehmet; Atci, Ibrahim Burak; Yilmaz, Hakan; Coban, Mustafa Kemal; Yuksel, Mehmet Onur; Kahraman, Umit

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The most common used technique for posterolateral cervical disc herniations is anterior approach. However, posterior cervical laminotoforaminomy can provide excellent results in appropriately selected patients with foraminal stenosis in either soft disc prolapse or cervical spondylosis. The purpose of this study was to present the clinical outcomes following posterior laminoforaminotomy in patients with radiculopathy. Materials and Methods: We retrospectively evaluated 35 patients diagnosed with posterolateral cervical disc herniation and cervical spondylosis with foraminal stenosis causing radiculopathy operated by the posterior cervical keyhole laminoforaminotomy between the years 2010 and 2015. Results: The file records and the radiographic images of the 35 patients were assessed retrospectively. The mean age was 46.4 years (range: 34-66 years). Of the patients, 19 were males and 16 were females. In all of the patients, the neurologic deficit observed was radiculopathy. The posterolaterally localized disc herniations and the osteophytic structures were on the left side in 18 cases and on the right in 17 cases. In 10 of the patients, the disc level was at C5-6, in 18 at C6-7, in 2 at C3-4, in 2 at C4-5, in 1 at C7-T1, in 1 patient at both C5-6 and C6-7, and in 1 at both C4-5 and C5-6. In 14 of these 35 patients, both osteophytic structures and protruded disc herniation were present. Intervertebral foramen stenosis was present in all of the patients with osteophytes. Postoperatively, in 31 patients the complaints were relieved completely and four patients had complaints of neck pain and paresthesia radiating to the arm (the success of operation was 88.5%). On control examinations, there was no finding of instability or cervical kyphosis. Conclusion: Posterior cervical laminoforaminotomy is an alternative appropriate choice in both cervical soft disc herniations and cervical stenosis. PMID:27217655

  8. Posterior fossa syndrome—a narrative review

    PubMed Central

    Wahab, Salima S.; Hettige, Samantha; Mankad, Kshtij

    2016-01-01

    Posterior fossa syndrome (PFS), or cerebellar mutism syndrome (CMS), is a collection of neurological symptoms that occur following surgical resection of a posterior fossa tumour, and is characterised by either a reduction or an absence of speech. Some authors suggest that CM is only one symptom of the CMS complex that also includes ataxia, hypotonia and irritability as well as cranial nerve deficits, neurobehavioral changes and urinary retention or incontinence. It is seen almost exclusively in children. In 1985 Rekate et al. published the first work describing CM as a clinical entity, occurring as a consequence of bilateral cerebellar injury. Other associated symptoms include visual impairment, altered mood, impaired swallowing and significant gross and fine motor deficits. The effects of this can have a devastating impact on both the patient and their carers, posing a significant clinical challenge to neurorehabilitation services. The reported incidence was between 8% and 31% of children undergoing surgery for posterior fossa tumour. The underlying pathologies include vasospasm, oedema, and axonal/neuronal injury. Neuroimaging has contributed to a better understanding of the anatomical location of postoperative injury. There have been a number of suggestions for treatment interventions for PFS. However, apart from some individual reports, there have been no clinical trials indicating possible benefit. Occupational therapy, speech and language therapy, as well as neurocognitive support, contribute to the recovery of these patients. PMID:27942479

  9. Classifier calibration using splined empirical probabilities in clinical risk prediction.

    PubMed

    Gaudoin, René; Montana, Giovanni; Jones, Simon; Aylin, Paul; Bottle, Alex

    2015-06-01

    The aims of supervised machine learning (ML) applications fall into three broad categories: classification, ranking, and calibration/probability estimation. Many ML methods and evaluation techniques relate to the first two. Nevertheless, there are many applications where having an accurate probability estimate is of great importance. Deriving accurate probabilities from the output of a ML method is therefore an active area of research, resulting in several methods to turn a ranking into class probability estimates. In this manuscript we present a method, splined empirical probabilities, based on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) to complement existing algorithms such as isotonic regression. Unlike most other methods it works with a cumulative quantity, the ROC curve, and as such can be tagged onto an ROC analysis with minor effort. On a diverse set of measures of the quality of probability estimates (Hosmer-Lemeshow, Kullback-Leibler divergence, differences in the cumulative distribution function) using simulated and real health care data, our approach compares favourably with the standard calibration method, the pool adjacent violators algorithm used to perform isotonic regression.

  10. Detonation probabilities of high explosives

    SciTech Connect

    Eisenhawer, S.W.; Bott, T.F.; Bement, T.R.

    1995-07-01

    The probability of a high explosive violent reaction (HEVR) following various events is an extremely important aspect of estimating accident-sequence frequency for nuclear weapons dismantlement. In this paper, we describe the development of response curves for insults to PBX 9404, a conventional high-performance explosive used in US weapons. The insults during dismantlement include drops of high explosive (HE), strikes of tools and components on HE, and abrasion of the explosive. In the case of drops, we combine available test data on HEVRs and the results of flooring certification tests to estimate the HEVR probability. For other insults, it was necessary to use expert opinion. We describe the expert solicitation process and the methods used to consolidate the responses. The HEVR probabilities obtained from both approaches are compared.

  11. Bayesian probability approach to ADHD appraisal.

    PubMed

    Robeva, Raina; Penberthy, Jennifer Kim

    2009-01-01

    Accurate diagnosis of attentional disorders such as attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is imperative because there are multiple negative psychosocial sequelae related to undiagnosed and untreated ADHD. Early and accurate detection can lead to effective intervention and prevention of negative sequelae. Unfortunately, diagnosing ADHD presents a challenge to traditional assessment paradigms because there is no single test that definitively establishes its presence. Even though ADHD is a physiologically based disorder with a multifactorial etiology, the diagnosis has been traditionally based on a subjective history of symptoms. In this chapter we outline a stochastic method that utilizes a Bayesian interface for quantifying and assessing ADHD. It can be used to combine of a variety of psychometric tests and physiological markers into a single standardized instrument that, on each step, refines a probability for ADHD for each individual based on information provided by the individual assessments. The method is illustrated with data from a small study of six college female students with ADHD and six matched controls in which the method achieves correct classification for all participants, where none of the individual assessments was capable of achieving perfect classification. Further, we provide a framework for applying this Bayesian method for performing meta-analysis of data obtained from disparate studies and using disparate tests for ADHD based on calibration of the data into a unified probability scale. We use this method to combine data from five studies that examine the diagnostic abilities of different behavioral rating scales and EEG assessments of ADHD, enrolling a total of 56 ADHD and 55 control subjects of different age groups and gender.

  12. Peripapillary and posterior scleral mechanics--part II: experimental and inverse finite element characterization.

    PubMed

    Girard, Michaël J A; Downs, J Crawford; Bottlang, Michael; Burgoyne, Claude F; Suh, J-K Francis

    2009-05-01

    The posterior sclera likely plays an important role in the development of glaucoma, and accurate characterization of its mechanical properties is needed to understand its impact on the more delicate optic nerve head--the primary site of damage in the disease. The posterior scleral shells from both eyes of one rhesus monkey were individually mounted on a custom-built pressurization apparatus. Intraocular pressure was incrementally increased from 5 mm Hg to 45 mm Hg, and the 3D displacements were measured using electronic speckle pattern interferometry. Finite element meshes of each posterior scleral shell were reconstructed from data generated by a 3D digitizer arm (shape) and a 20 MHz ultrasound transducer (thickness). An anisotropic hyperelastic constitutive model described in a companion paper (Girard, Downs, Burgoyne, and Suh, 2009, "Peripapillary and Posterior Scleral Mechanics--Part I: Development of an Anisotropic Hyperelastic Constitutive Model," ASME J. Biomech. Eng., 131, p. 051011), which includes stretch-induced stiffening and multidirectional alignment of the collagen fibers, was applied to each reconstructed mesh. Surface node displacements of each model were fitted to the experimental displacements using an inverse finite element method, which estimated a unique set of 13 model parameters. The predictions of the proposed constitutive model matched the 3D experimental displacements well. In both eyes, the tangent modulus increased dramatically with IOP, which indicates that the sclera is mechanically nonlinear. The sclera adjacent to the optic nerve head, known as the peripapillary sclera, was thickest and exhibited the lowest tangent modulus, which might have contributed to the uniform distribution of the structural stiffness for each entire scleral shell. Posterior scleral deformation following acute IOP elevations appears to be nonlinear and governed by the underlying scleral collagen microstructure as predicted by finite element modeling. The

  13. Electrocardiographic diagnosis of remote posterior wall myocardial infarction using unipolar posterior lead V9

    SciTech Connect

    Rich, M.W.; Imburgia, M.; King, T.R.; Fischer, K.C.; Kovach, K.L. )

    1989-09-01

    The accuracy of four electrocardiographic criteria for diagnosing remote posterior myocardial infarction was assessed prospectively in 369 patients undergoing exercise treadmill testing with thallium scintigraphy. Criteria included the following: (1) R-wave width greater than or equal to 0.04 s and R-wave greater than or equal to S-wave in V1; (2) R-wave greater than or equal to S-wave in V2; (3) T-wave voltage in V2 minus V6 greater than or equal to 0.38 mV (T-wave index); (4) Q-wave greater than or equal to 0.04 s in left paraspinal lead V9. Twenty-seven patients (7.3 percent) met thallium criteria for posterior myocardial infarction, defined as a persistent perfusion defect in the posterobase of the left ventricle. Sensitivities for the four criteria ranged from 4 to 56 percent, and specificities ranged from 64 to 99 percent. Posterior paraspinal lead V9 provided the best overall predictive accuracy (94 percent), positive predictive value (58 percent), and ability to differentiate patients with and without posterior myocardial infarction of any single criterion (p less than .0001). Combining the T-wave index with lead V9 further enhanced the diagnostic yield: the sensitivity for detecting posterior infarction by at least one of these criteria was 78 percent, and when both criteria were positive, specificity was 98.5 percent. It is concluded that a single, unipolar posterior lead in the V9 position is superior to standard 12-lead electrocardiographic criteria in diagnosing remote posterior myocardial infarction, and that combining V9 with the T-wave index maximizes the diagnostic yield.

  14. Interference of probabilities in dynamics

    SciTech Connect

    Zak, Michail

    2014-08-15

    A new class of dynamical systems with a preset type of interference of probabilities is introduced. It is obtained from the extension of the Madelung equation by replacing the quantum potential with a specially selected feedback from the Liouville equation. It has been proved that these systems are different from both Newtonian and quantum systems, but they can be useful for modeling spontaneous collective novelty phenomena when emerging outputs are qualitatively different from the weighted sum of individual inputs. Formation of language and fast decision-making process as potential applications of the probability interference is discussed.

  15. Knowledge typology for imprecise probabilities.

    SciTech Connect

    Wilson, G. D.; Zucker, L. J.

    2002-01-01

    When characterizing the reliability of a complex system there are often gaps in the data available for specific subsystems or other factors influencing total system reliability. At Los Alamos National Laboratory we employ ethnographic methods to elicit expert knowledge when traditional data is scarce. Typically, we elicit expert knowledge in probabilistic terms. This paper will explore how we might approach elicitation if methods other than probability (i.e., Dempster-Shafer, or fuzzy sets) prove more useful for quantifying certain types of expert knowledge. Specifically, we will consider if experts have different types of knowledge that may be better characterized in ways other than standard probability theory.

  16. Stretching Probability Explorations with Geoboards

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wheeler, Ann; Champion, Joe

    2016-01-01

    Students are faced with many transitions in their middle school mathematics classes. To build knowledge, skills, and confidence in the key areas of algebra and geometry, students often need to practice using numbers and polygons in a variety of contexts. Teachers also want students to explore ideas from probability and statistics. Teachers know…

  17. On probability-possibility transformations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Klir, George J.; Parviz, Behzad

    1992-01-01

    Several probability-possibility transformations are compared in terms of the closeness of preserving second-order properties. The comparison is based on experimental results obtained by computer simulation. Two second-order properties are involved in this study: noninteraction of two distributions and projections of a joint distribution.

  18. Comments on quantum probability theory.

    PubMed

    Sloman, Steven

    2014-01-01

    Quantum probability theory (QP) is the best formal representation available of the most common form of judgment involving attribute comparison (inside judgment). People are capable, however, of judgments that involve proportions over sets of instances (outside judgment). Here, the theory does not do so well. I discuss the theory both in terms of descriptive adequacy and normative appropriateness.

  19. Probability Simulation in Middle School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lappan, Glenda; Winter, M. J.

    1980-01-01

    Two simulations designed to teach probability to middle-school age pupils are presented. The first simulates the one-on-one foul shot simulation in basketball; the second deals with collecting a set of six cereal box prizes by buying boxes containing one toy each. (MP)

  20. GPS: Geometry, Probability, and Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Field, Mike

    2012-01-01

    It might be said that for most occupations there is now less of a need for mathematics than there was say fifty years ago. But, the author argues, geometry, probability, and statistics constitute essential knowledge for everyone. Maybe not the geometry of Euclid, but certainly geometrical ways of thinking that might enable us to describe the world…

  1. Accurate Biomass Estimation via Bayesian Adaptive Sampling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wheeler, K.; Knuth, K.; Castle, P.

    2005-12-01

    Typical estimates of standing wood derived from remote sensing sources take advantage of aggregate measurements of canopy heights (e.g. LIDAR) and canopy diameters (segmentation of IKONOS imagery) to obtain a wood volume estimate by assuming homogeneous species and a fixed function that returns volume. The validation of such techniques use manually measured diameter at breast height records (DBH). Our goal is to improve the accuracy and applicability of biomass estimation methods to heterogeneous forests and transitional areas. We are developing estimates with quantifiable uncertainty using a new form of estimation function, active sampling, and volumetric reconstruction image rendering for species specific mass truth. Initially we are developing a Bayesian adaptive sampling method for BRDF associated with the MISR Rahman model with respect to categorical biomes. This involves characterizing the probability distributions of the 3 free parameters of the Rahman model for the 6 categories of biomes used by MISR. Subsequently, these distributions can be used to determine the optimal sampling methodology to distinguish biomes during acquisition. We have a remotely controlled semi-autonomous helicopter that has stereo imaging, lidar, differential GPS, and spectrometers covering wavelengths from visible to NIR. We intend to automatically vary the way points of the flight path via the Bayesian adaptive sampling method. The second critical part of this work is in automating the validation of biomass estimates via using machine vision techniques. This involves taking 2-D pictures of trees of known species, and then via Bayesian techniques, reconstructing 3-D models of the trees to estimate the distribution moments associated with wood volume. Similar techniques have been developed by the medical imaging community. This then provides probability distributions conditional upon species. The final part of this work is in relating the BRDF actively sampled measurements to species

  2. Time-dependent earthquake probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Gomberg, J.; Belardinelli, M.E.; Cocco, M.; Reasenberg, P.

    2005-01-01

    We have attempted to provide a careful examination of a class of approaches for estimating the conditional probability of failure of a single large earthquake, particularly approaches that account for static stress perturbations to tectonic loading as in the approaches of Stein et al. (1997) and Hardebeck (2004). We have loading as in the framework based on a simple, generalized rate change formulation and applied it to these two approaches to show how they relate to one another. We also have attempted to show the connection between models of seismicity rate changes applied to (1) populations of independent faults as in background and aftershock seismicity and (2) changes in estimates of the conditional probability of failures of different members of a the notion of failure rate corresponds to successive failures of different members of a population of faults. The latter application requires specification of some probability distribution (density function of PDF) that describes some population of potential recurrence times. This PDF may reflect our imperfect knowledge of when past earthquakes have occurred on a fault (epistemic uncertainty), the true natural variability in failure times, or some combination of both. We suggest two end-member conceptual single-fault models that may explain natural variability in recurrence times and suggest how they might be distinguished observationally. When viewed deterministically, these single-fault patch models differ significantly in their physical attributes, and when faults are immature, they differ in their responses to stress perturbations. Estimates of conditional failure probabilities effectively integrate over a range of possible deterministic fault models, usually with ranges that correspond to mature faults. Thus conditional failure probability estimates usually should not differ significantly for these models. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

  3. Facilitating normative judgments of conditional probability: frequency or nested sets?

    PubMed

    Yamagishi, Kimihiko

    2003-01-01

    Recent probability judgment research contrasts two opposing views. Some theorists have emphasized the role of frequency representations in facilitating probabilistic correctness; opponents have noted that visualizing the probabilistic structure of the task sufficiently facilitates normative reasoning. In the current experiment, the following conditional probability task, an isomorph of the "Problem of Three Prisoners" was tested. "A factory manufactures artificial gemstones. Each gemstone has a 1/3 chance of being blurred, a 1/3 chance of being cracked, and a 1/3 chance of being clear. An inspection machine removes all cracked gemstones, and retains all clear gemstones. However, the machine removes 1/2 of the blurred gemstones. What is the chance that a gemstone is blurred after the inspection?" A 2 x 2 design was administered. The first variable was the use of frequency instruction. The second manipulation was the use of a roulette-wheel diagram that illustrated a "nested-sets" relationship between the prior and the posterior probabilities. Results from two experiments showed that frequency alone had modest effects, while the nested-sets instruction achieved a superior facilitation of normative reasoning. The third experiment compared the roulette-wheel diagram to tree diagrams that also showed the nested-sets relationship. The roulette-wheel diagram outperformed the tree diagrams in facilitation of probabilistic reasoning. Implications for understanding the nature of intuitive probability judgments are discussed.

  4. Maximum Probability Reaction Sequences in Stochastic Chemical Kinetic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Salehi, Maryam; Perkins, Theodore J.

    2010-01-01

    The detailed behavior of many molecular processes in the cell, such as protein folding, protein complex assembly, and gene regulation, transcription and translation, can often be accurately captured by stochastic chemical kinetic models. We investigate a novel computational problem involving these models – that of finding the most-probable sequence of reactions that connects two or more states of the system observed at different times. We describe an efficient method for computing the probability of a given reaction sequence, but argue that computing most-probable reaction sequences is EXPSPACE-hard. We develop exact (exhaustive) and approximate algorithms for finding most-probable reaction sequences. We evaluate these methods on test problems relating to a recently-proposed stochastic model of folding of the Trp-cage peptide. Our results provide new computational tools for analyzing stochastic chemical models, and demonstrate their utility in illuminating the behavior of real-world systems. PMID:21629860

  5. Posterior pelvic pain provocation test is negative in patients with lumbar herniated discs.

    PubMed

    Gutke, Annelie; Hansson, Eva Roos; Zetherström, Gunilla; Ostgaard, Hans Christian

    2009-07-01

    The classification of pelvic girdle pain can only be reached after lumbar causes have been excluded by a clinical examination. During clinical examination, the posterior pelvic pain provocation test is a well-established method for verifying pelvic girdle pain. However, a criticism of pelvic pain provocation tests is that they may have an effect on lumbar structures, thus yielding false-positive results. The posterior pelvic pain provocation test was performed with four groups of patients: patients with computed tomography-verified disc herniations (1) on the waiting list for surgery (14 women; 9 men); (2) 6 weeks after disc surgery (18 women, 12 men); (3) pregnant women seeking care for pelvic girdle pain (n = 25); and (4) women with persistent pelvic girdle pain after delivery (n = 32). The sensitivity of the posterior pelvic pain provocation test was 0.88 and the specificity was 0.89. The positive predictive value was 0.89 and the negative predictive value was 0.87. Analysis of only women showed similar results. In our study, the posterior pelvic pain provocation test was negative in patients with a well-defined lumbar diagnosis of lumbar disc herniation, both before and after disc surgery. Our results are an important step toward the more accurate classification of lumbopelvic pain.

  6. On numerically accurate finite element

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nagtegaal, J. C.; Parks, D. M.; Rice, J. R.

    1974-01-01

    A general criterion for testing a mesh with topologically similar repeat units is given, and the analysis shows that only a few conventional element types and arrangements are, or can be made suitable for computations in the fully plastic range. Further, a new variational principle, which can easily and simply be incorporated into an existing finite element program, is presented. This allows accurate computations to be made even for element designs that would not normally be suitable. Numerical results are given for three plane strain problems, namely pure bending of a beam, a thick-walled tube under pressure, and a deep double edge cracked tensile specimen. The effects of various element designs and of the new variational procedure are illustrated. Elastic-plastic computation at finite strain are discussed.

  7. Distortions of the posterior surface in optical coherence tomography images of the isolated crystalline lens: effect of the lens index gradient

    PubMed Central

    Borja, David; Siedlecki, Damian; de Castro, Alberto; Uhlhorn, Stephen; Ortiz, Sergio; Arrieta, Esdras; Parel, Jean-Marie; Marcos, Susana; Manns, Fabrice

    2010-01-01

    We quantify the posterior surface distortions in optical coherence tomography (OCT) images of isolated crystalline lenses. The posterior radius of curvature and asphericity obtained from OCT images acquired with the beam incident first on the anterior, and then the posterior, surface were compared. The results were compared with predictions of a ray-tracing model which includes the index gradient. The results show that the error in the radius of curvature is within the measurement reproducibility and that it can be corrected by assuming a uniform refractive index. However, accurate asphericity values require a correction algorithm that takes into account the gradient. PMID:21258553

  8. Understanding Y haplotype matching probability.

    PubMed

    Brenner, Charles H

    2014-01-01

    The Y haplotype population-genetic terrain is better explored from a fresh perspective rather than by analogy with the more familiar autosomal ideas. For haplotype matching probabilities, versus for autosomal matching probabilities, explicit attention to modelling - such as how evolution got us where we are - is much more important while consideration of population frequency is much less so. This paper explores, extends, and explains some of the concepts of "Fundamental problem of forensic mathematics - the evidential strength of a rare haplotype match". That earlier paper presented and validated a "kappa method" formula for the evidential strength when a suspect matches a previously unseen haplotype (such as a Y-haplotype) at the crime scene. Mathematical implications of the kappa method are intuitive and reasonable. Suspicions to the contrary raised in rest on elementary errors. Critical to deriving the kappa method or any sensible evidential calculation is understanding that thinking about haplotype population frequency is a red herring; the pivotal question is one of matching probability. But confusion between the two is unfortunately institutionalized in much of the forensic world. Examples make clear why (matching) probability is not (population) frequency and why uncertainty intervals on matching probabilities are merely confused thinking. Forensic matching calculations should be based on a model, on stipulated premises. The model inevitably only approximates reality, and any error in the results comes only from error in the model, the inexactness of the approximation. Sampling variation does not measure that inexactness and hence is not helpful in explaining evidence and is in fact an impediment. Alternative haplotype matching probability approaches that various authors have considered are reviewed. Some are based on no model and cannot be taken seriously. For the others, some evaluation of the models is discussed. Recent evidence supports the adequacy of

  9. Accurate and quantitative polarization-sensitive OCT by unbiased birefringence estimator with noise-stochastic correction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kasaragod, Deepa; Sugiyama, Satoshi; Ikuno, Yasushi; Alonso-Caneiro, David; Yamanari, Masahiro; Fukuda, Shinichi; Oshika, Tetsuro; Hong, Young-Joo; Li, En; Makita, Shuichi; Miura, Masahiro; Yasuno, Yoshiaki

    2016-03-01

    Polarization sensitive optical coherence tomography (PS-OCT) is a functional extension of OCT that contrasts the polarization properties of tissues. It has been applied to ophthalmology, cardiology, etc. Proper quantitative imaging is required for a widespread clinical utility. However, the conventional method of averaging to improve the signal to noise ratio (SNR) and the contrast of the phase retardation (or birefringence) images introduce a noise bias offset from the true value. This bias reduces the effectiveness of birefringence contrast for a quantitative study. Although coherent averaging of Jones matrix tomography has been widely utilized and has improved the image quality, the fundamental limitation of nonlinear dependency of phase retardation and birefringence to the SNR was not overcome. So the birefringence obtained by PS-OCT was still not accurate for a quantitative imaging. The nonlinear effect of SNR to phase retardation and birefringence measurement was previously formulated in detail for a Jones matrix OCT (JM-OCT) [1]. Based on this, we had developed a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimator and quantitative birefringence imaging was demonstrated [2]. However, this first version of estimator had a theoretical shortcoming. It did not take into account the stochastic nature of SNR of OCT signal. In this paper, we present an improved version of the MAP estimator which takes into account the stochastic property of SNR. This estimator uses a probability distribution function (PDF) of true local retardation, which is proportional to birefringence, under a specific set of measurements of the birefringence and SNR. The PDF was pre-computed by a Monte-Carlo (MC) simulation based on the mathematical model of JM-OCT before the measurement. A comparison between this new MAP estimator, our previous MAP estimator [2], and the standard mean estimator is presented. The comparisons are performed both by numerical simulation and in vivo measurements of anterior and

  10. Posterior ventricular anchoring neochordal repair of degenerative mitral regurgitation efficiently remodels and repositions posterior leaflet prolapse†

    PubMed Central

    Woo, Y. Joseph; MacArthur, John W.

    2013-01-01

    OBJECTIVES Mitral valve repair techniques for degenerative disease typically entail leaflet resection or neochordal construction, which may require extensive resection, leaflet detachment/reattachment, reliance on diseased native chords or precise neochordal measuring. Occasionally, impaired leaflet mobility, reduced coaptation surface and systolic anterior motion (SAM) may result. We describe a novel technique for addressing posterior leaflet prolapse/flail, which both simplifies repair and addresses these issues. METHODS Fifty-four patients (age 62 ± 11 years) with degenerative MR underwent this new repair, 36 of whom minimally-invasively. A CV5 Gore-Tex suture was placed into the posterior left ventricular myocardium underneath the prolapsing segment as an anchor. This suture was then used to imbricate a portion of the prolapsed segment into the ventricle, creating a smooth, broad, non-prolapsed coapting surface on a leaflet with preserved mobility, additional neochordal support and posteriorly positioned enough to preclude SAM. RESULTS Repair was successful in all patients. The mean MR grade was reduced from +3.8 to +0.1 with 50 of 54 patients having zero MR and 4 of the 54 having trace or mild MR. All patients had proper antero-posterior location of the coaptation line of a mean length of 10.2 mm, and preserved posterior leaflet mobility. No patients had SAM or mitral stenosis. All patients were discharged and are currently doing well. CONCLUSION This new technique facilitated efficient single-suture repair of the prolapsed posterior leaflet mitral regurgitation without the need for resection or sliding annuloplasty. It precluded the need for precise neochordal measurement and preserved the leaflet coaptation surface. PMID:23449863

  11. Talar Osteochondroma Fracture Presenting as Posterior Ankle Impingement.

    PubMed

    Ercin, Ersin; Bilgili, Mustafa Gokhan; Gamsizkan, Mehmet; Avsar, Serdar

    2016-05-01

    Osteochondromas are the most common benign bone tumors. They are usually asymptomatic and found incidentally. When symptomatic, the symptoms are usually due to its location and size. Fracture of an osteochondroma presenting as posterior ankle impingement is a rare condition. We describe a 22-year-old man with solitary exostosis who presented with a posterior ankle mass and posterior ankle impingement with 2 years of follow-up. Surgical intervention was the treatment of choice in this patient, and histologic examination revealed a benign osteochondroma. Osteochondromas found in the posterior aspect of the talus can be complicated by fracture due to persistent motion of the ankle. Talar osteochondroma should be included in the differential diagnosis of posterior ankle impingement causes. Posterior talar osteochondromas, especially when a stalk is present, should be treated surgically before it is more complicated by a fracture and posterior ankle impingement.

  12. Surgical management of posterior fossa metastases.

    PubMed

    Sunderland, Geraint J; Jenkinson, Michael D; Zakaria, Rasheed

    2016-12-01

    The diagnosis of brain metastases is associated with a poor prognosis reflecting uncontrolled primary disease that has spread to the relative sanctuary of the central nervous system. 20 % of brain metastases occur in the posterior fossa and are associated with significant morbidity. The risk of acute hydrocephalus and potential for sudden death means these metastases are often dealt with as emergency cases. This approach means a full pre-operative assessment and staging of underlying disease may be neglected and a proportion of patients undergo comparatively high risk surgery with little or no survival benefit. This study aimed to assess outcomes in patients to identify factors that may assist in case selection. We report a retrospective case series of 92 consecutive patients operated for posterior fossa metastases between 2007 and 2012. Routine demographic data was collected plus data on performance status, primary cancer site, details of surgery, adjuvant treatment and survival. The only independent positive prognostic factors identified on multivariate analysis were good performance status (if Karnofsky performance score >70, hazard ratio (HR) for death 0.36, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 0.18-0.69), adjuvant whole brain radiotherapy (HR 0.37, 95 % CI 0.21-0.65) and adjuvant chemotherapy where there was extracranial disease and non-synchronous presentation (HR 0.51, 95 % CI 0.31-0.82). Patients presenting with posterior fossa metastases may not be investigated as thoroughly as those with supratentorial tumours. Staging and assessment is essential however, and in the meantime emergencies related to tumour mass effect should be managed with steroids and cerebrospinal fluid diversion as required.

  13. Discrete sensors distribution for accurate plantar pressure analyses.

    PubMed

    Claverie, Laetitia; Ille, Anne; Moretto, Pierre

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the distribution of discrete sensors under the footprint for accurate plantar pressure analyses. For this purpose, two different sensor layouts have been tested and compared, to determine which was the most accurate to monitor plantar pressure with wireless devices in research and/or clinical practice. Ten healthy volunteers participated in the study (age range: 23-58 years). The barycenter of pressures (BoP) determined from the plantar pressure system (W-inshoe®) was compared to the center of pressures (CoP) determined from a force platform (AMTI) in the medial-lateral (ML) and anterior-posterior (AP) directions. Then, the vertical ground reaction force (vGRF) obtained from both W-inshoe® and force platform was compared for both layouts for each subject. The BoP and vGRF determined from the plantar pressure system data showed good correlation (SCC) with those determined from the force platform data, notably for the second sensor organization (ML SCC= 0.95; AP SCC=0.99; vGRF SCC=0.91). The study demonstrates that an adjusted placement of removable sensors is key to accurate plantar pressure analyses. These results are promising for a plantar pressure recording outside clinical or laboratory settings, for long time monitoring, real time feedback or for whatever activity requiring a low-cost system.

  14. [Posterior dislocation of the sternoclavicular joint].

    PubMed

    Mäkinen, Tatu; Madanat, Rami; Heinänen, Mikko; Brinck, Tuomas; Pajarinen, Jarkko

    2013-01-01

    Posterior dislocation of the sternoclavicular joint is a rare injury. It can be associated with life-threatening complications. Computed tomography is the imaging modality of choice with which possible associated injuries can be detected. Acute injuries are managed with closed reduction under general anaesthesia. A fracture-dislocation is inherently more unstable than an isolated dislocation. Surgical treatment is advocated in cases of delayed diagnosis or failed closed reduction. With early diagnosis and treatment, the long-term outcome of this injury is good.

  15. Fast and accurate database searches with MS-GF+Percolator.

    PubMed

    Granholm, Viktor; Kim, Sangtae; Navarro, José C F; Sjölund, Erik; Smith, Richard D; Käll, Lukas

    2014-02-07

    One can interpret fragmentation spectra stemming from peptides in mass-spectrometry-based proteomics experiments using so-called database search engines. Frequently, one also runs post-processors such as Percolator to assess the confidence, infer unique peptides, and increase the number of identifications. A recent search engine, MS-GF+, has shown promising results, due to a new and efficient scoring algorithm. However, MS-GF+ provides few statistical estimates about the peptide-spectrum matches, hence limiting the biological interpretation. Here, we enabled Percolator processing for MS-GF+ output and observed an increased number of identified peptides for a wide variety of data sets. In addition, Percolator directly reports p values and false discovery rate estimates, such as q values and posterior error probabilities, for peptide-spectrum matches, peptides, and proteins, functions that are useful for the whole proteomics community.

  16. Electrofishing capture probability of smallmouth bass in streams

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Dauwalter, D.C.; Fisher, W.L.

    2007-01-01

    Abundance estimation is an integral part of understanding the ecology and advancing the management of fish populations and communities. Mark-recapture and removal methods are commonly used to estimate the abundance of stream fishes. Alternatively, abundance can be estimated by dividing the number of individuals sampled by the probability of capture. We conducted a mark-recapture study and used multiple repeated-measures logistic regression to determine the influence of fish size, sampling procedures, and stream habitat variables on the cumulative capture probability for smallmouth bass Micropterus dolomieu in two eastern Oklahoma streams. The predicted capture probability was used to adjust the number of individuals sampled to obtain abundance estimates. The observed capture probabilities were higher for larger fish and decreased with successive electrofishing passes for larger fish only. Model selection suggested that the number of electrofishing passes, fish length, and mean thalweg depth affected capture probabilities the most; there was little evidence for any effect of electrofishing power density and woody debris density on capture probability. Leave-one-out cross validation showed that the cumulative capture probability model predicts smallmouth abundance accurately. ?? Copyright by the American Fisheries Society 2007.

  17. Fixation of strategies driven by switching probabilities in evolutionary games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xu, Zimin; Zhang, Jianlei; Zhang, Chunyan; Chen, Zengqiang

    2016-12-01

    We study the evolutionary dynamics of strategies in finite populations which are homogeneous and well mixed by means of the pairwise comparison process, the core of which is the proposed switching probability. Previous studies about this subject are usually based on the known payoff comparison of the related players, which is an ideal assumption. In real social systems, acquiring the accurate payoffs of partners at each round of interaction may be not easy. So we bypass the need of explicit knowledge of payoffs, and encode the payoffs into the willingness of any individual shift from her current strategy to the competing one, and the switching probabilities are wholly independent of payoffs. Along this way, the strategy updating can be performed when game models are fixed and payoffs are unclear, expected to extend ideal assumptions to be more realistic one. We explore the impact of the switching probability on the fixation probability and derive a simple formula which determines the fixation probability. Moreover we find that cooperation dominates defection if the probability of cooperation replacing defection is always larger than the probability of defection replacing cooperation in finite populations. Last, we investigate the influences of model parameters on the fixation of strategies in the framework of three concrete game models: prisoner's dilemma, snowdrift game and stag-hunt game, which effectively portray the characteristics of cooperative dilemmas in real social systems.

  18. Decompression of Posterior Ankle Impingement With Concomitant Anterior Ankle Pathology by Posterior Ankle Arthroscopy in the Supine Position.

    PubMed

    Lui, Tun Hing

    2016-10-01

    Posterior ankle endoscopy is a safe and effective approach for treatment of posterior ankle impingement. This is usually performed with the patient in prone position. The purpose of this technical note is to describe an arthroscopic approach of decompression of posterior ankle impingement with the patient in supine position. This is indicated if there is posterior ankle impingement together with other ankle pathology requiring anterior ankle arthroscopy. This approach allows treatment of both anterior ankle and posterior ankle pathology with the patient in the supine position. Concomitant anterior ankle arthroscopy can be performed with the usual orientation without the need of change of patient's position.

  19. The Prediction of Spatial Aftershock Probabilities (PRESAP)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McCloskey, J.

    2003-12-01

    It is now widely accepted that the goal of deterministic earthquake prediction is unattainable in the short term and may even be forbidden by nonlinearity in the generating dynamics. This nonlinearity does not, however, preclude the estimation of earthquake probability and, in particular, how this probability might change in space and time; earthquake hazard estimation might be possible in the absence of earthquake prediction. Recently, there has been a major development in the understanding of stress triggering of earthquakes which allows accurate calculation of the spatial variation of aftershock probability following any large earthquake. Over the past few years this Coulomb stress technique (CST) has been the subject of intensive study in the geophysics literature and has been extremely successful in explaining the spatial distribution of aftershocks following several major earthquakes. The power of current micro-computers, the great number of local, telemeter seismic networks, the rapid acquisition of data from satellites coupled with the speed of modern telecommunications and data transfer all mean that it may be possible that these new techniques could be applied in a forward sense. In other words, it is theoretically possible today to make predictions of the likely spatial distribution of aftershocks in near-real-time following a large earthquake. Approximate versions of such predictions could be available within, say, 0.1 days after the mainshock and might be continually refined and updated over the next 100 days. The European Commission has recently provided funding for a project to assess the extent to which it is currently possible to move CST predictions into a practically useful time frame so that low-confidence estimates of aftershock probability might be made within a few hours of an event and improved in near-real-time, as data of better quality become available over the following day to tens of days. Specifically, the project aim is to assess the

  20. Atomic transition probabilities of Ce I from Fourier transform spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nitz, D. E.; Lawler, J. E.; Chisholm, J.; Wood, M. P.; Sobeck, J.; den Hartog, E. A.

    2010-03-01

    We report transition probabilities for 2874 lines of CeI in the wavelength range 360 -- 1500 nm. These are derived from new branching fraction measurements on Fourier transform spectra normalized with recently-reported radiative lifetimes (Den Hartog et al., J. Phys. B 42, 085006 (2009)). We have analyzed the decay branches for 153 upper levels in 14 different spectra recorded under a variety of discharge lamp conditions. Comparison of results with previous less extensive investigations shows good agreement for lines studied in common. Accurate Ce I transition probabilities are needed for applications in astrophysics and in lighting research, particularly for the development of improved metal halide high-intensity discharge lamps.

  1. Atomic transition probabilities of Ce I from Fourier transform spectra

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lawler, J. E.; Chisholm, J.; Nitz, D. E.; Wood, M. P.; Sobeck, J.; Den Hartog, E. A.

    2010-04-01

    Atomic transition probabilities for 2874 lines of the first spectrum of cerium (Ce I) are reported. These data are from new branching fraction measurements on Fourier transform spectra normalized with previously reported radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced-fluorescence measurements (Den Hartog et al 2009 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 42 085006). The wavelength range of the data set is from 360 to 1500 nm. Comparisons are made to previous investigations which are less extensive. Accurate Ce i transition probabilities are needed for lighting research and development on metal halide high-intensity discharge lamps.

  2. Objective Probability and Quantum Fuzziness

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mohrhoff, U.

    2009-02-01

    This paper offers a critique of the Bayesian interpretation of quantum mechanics with particular focus on a paper by Caves, Fuchs, and Schack containing a critique of the “objective preparations view” or OPV. It also aims to carry the discussion beyond the hardened positions of Bayesians and proponents of the OPV. Several claims made by Caves et al. are rebutted, including the claim that different pure states may legitimately be assigned to the same system at the same time, and the claim that the quantum nature of a preparation device cannot legitimately be ignored. Both Bayesians and proponents of the OPV regard the time dependence of a quantum state as the continuous dependence on time of an evolving state of some kind. This leads to a false dilemma: quantum states are either objective states of nature or subjective states of belief. In reality they are neither. The present paper views the aforesaid dependence as a dependence on the time of the measurement to whose possible outcomes the quantum state serves to assign probabilities. This makes it possible to recognize the full implications of the only testable feature of the theory, viz., the probabilities it assigns to measurement outcomes. Most important among these are the objective fuzziness of all relative positions and momenta and the consequent incomplete spatiotemporal differentiation of the physical world. The latter makes it possible to draw a clear distinction between the macroscopic and the microscopic. This in turn makes it possible to understand the special status of measurements in all standard formulations of the theory. Whereas Bayesians have written contemptuously about the “folly” of conjoining “objective” to “probability,” there are various reasons why quantum-mechanical probabilities can be considered objective, not least the fact that they are needed to quantify an objective fuzziness. But this cannot be appreciated without giving thought to the makeup of the world, which

  3. Traumatic posterior dislocation of hip in children.

    PubMed

    Kutty, S; Thornes, B; Curtin, W A; Gilmore, M F

    2001-02-01

    Traumatic posterior dislocation of the hip joint in children is an uncommon injury. It constitutes a true orthopedic emergency. It makes up over 80% of pediatric hip dislocations. In children, it can occur as a result of minimal trauma, which is attributed to a soft pliable acetabulum and ligamentous laxity. In skeletally mature adolescents, a greater force is required to dislocate the hip joint. Delay in reduction is associated with long-term complications such as avascular necrosis and degenerative arthritis. Avascular necrosis is related to the duration of dislocation. A poorer prognosis is associated with delay in reduction beyond 6 hours, advanced skeletal maturity, or multiple traumas. Prompt reduction minimizes complications. We report two cases of traumatic posterior dislocation of hip in children aged 3 and 14 years. Both were reduced within 6 hours of dislocation, and review at 6 months revealed normal examination and no evidence of any post-traumatic changes. Post-reduction treatment remains without a consensus. This review highlights the clinical presentation, management, and time-sensitive complications of the injury.

  4. Management of an Uncomplicated Posterior Elbow Dislocation

    PubMed Central

    Blackard, Douglas; Sampson, Jo-Ann

    1997-01-01

    Objective: To present a case of an uncomplicated posterior elbow dislocation in a US World Cup athlete and discuss her rehabilitation. Background: Traditional protocol for management of this injury has been splint immobilization for several weeks, but research suggests a shortened duration of immobilization and early active motion. Differential Diagnosis: Elbow dislocation with possible fracture. Treatment: The dislocation was reduced and a compression bandage and sling were applied. The sports medicine staff and athlete determined that rehabilitation would involve limited immobilization with a posterior splint. Also, active range-of- motion exercises were to be incorporated early in the range-of- motion program to decrease pain at the articulation. Uniqueness: The athlete was not immobilized and her aggressive five-phase rehabilitation program progressed according to decrease in inflammation and increase in range of motion and strength. Conclusions: Shortened immobilization and return to World Championship competition 6 weeks postinjury had no longterm adverse effects on the athlete. ImagesFig 1.Fig 2.Fig 3.Fig 4.Fig. 5. PMID:16558436

  5. Posterior malleolar fractures of the ankle.

    PubMed

    Bartoníček, J; Rammelt, S; Tuček, M; Naňka, O

    2015-12-01

    Despite an increasing awareness of injuries to PM in ankle fracture-dislocations, there are still many open questions. The mere presence of a posterior fragment leads to significantly poorer outcomes. Adequate diagnosis, classification and treatment require preoperative CT examination, preferably with 3D reconstructions. The indication for surgical treatment is made individually on the basis of comprehensive assessment of the three-dimensional outline of the PM fracture and all associated injuries to the ankle including syndesmotic instability. Anatomic fixation of the avulsed posterior tibiofibular ligament will contribute to syndesmotic stability and restore the integrity of the incisura tibiae thus facilitating anatomic reduction of the distal fibula. A necessary prerequisite is mastering of posterolateral and posteromedial approaches and the technique of direct reduction and internal fixation. Further clinical studies with higher numbers of patients treated by similar methods and evaluation of pre- and postoperative CT scans will be necessary to determine reliable prognostic factors associated with certain types of PM fractures and associated injuries to the ankle.

  6. Microsurgical anatomy of the posterior fossa cisterns.

    PubMed

    Matsuno, H; Rhoton, A L; Peace, D

    1988-07-01

    The microsurgical anatomy of the posterior fossa cisterns was examined in 15 cadavers using 3X to 40X magnification. Liliequist's membrane was found to split into two arachnoidal sheets as it spreads upward from the dorsum sellae: an upper sheet, called the diencephalic membrane, which attaches to the diencephalon at the posterior edge of the mamillary bodies, and a lower sheet, called the mesencephalic membrane, which attaches along the junction of the midbrain and pons. Several other arachnoidal membranes that separate the cisterns were identified. These include the anterior pontine membrane, which separates the prepontine and cerebellopontine cisterns; the lateral pontomesencephalic membrane, which separates the ambient and cerebellopontine cisterns; the medial pontomedullary membrane, which separates the premedullary and prepontine cisterns; and the lateral pontomedullary membrane, which separates the cerebellopontine and cerebellomedullary cisterns. The three cisterns in which the arachnoid trabeculae and membranes are the most dense and present the greatest obstacle at operation are the interpeduncular and quadrigeminal cisterns and the cisterna magna. Numerous arachnoid membranes were found to intersect the oculomotor nerves. The neural and vascular structures in each cistern are reviewed.

  7. Accurate ab Initio Spin Densities.

    PubMed

    Boguslawski, Katharina; Marti, Konrad H; Legeza, Ors; Reiher, Markus

    2012-06-12

    We present an approach for the calculation of spin density distributions for molecules that require very large active spaces for a qualitatively correct description of their electronic structure. Our approach is based on the density-matrix renormalization group (DMRG) algorithm to calculate the spin density matrix elements as a basic quantity for the spatially resolved spin density distribution. The spin density matrix elements are directly determined from the second-quantized elementary operators optimized by the DMRG algorithm. As an analytic convergence criterion for the spin density distribution, we employ our recently developed sampling-reconstruction scheme [J. Chem. Phys.2011, 134, 224101] to build an accurate complete-active-space configuration-interaction (CASCI) wave function from the optimized matrix product states. The spin density matrix elements can then also be determined as an expectation value employing the reconstructed wave function expansion. Furthermore, the explicit reconstruction of a CASCI-type wave function provides insight into chemically interesting features of the molecule under study such as the distribution of α and β electrons in terms of Slater determinants, CI coefficients, and natural orbitals. The methodology is applied to an iron nitrosyl complex which we have identified as a challenging system for standard approaches [J. Chem. Theory Comput.2011, 7, 2740].

  8. Prehension Movements in a Patient (AC) with Posterior Parietal Cortex Damage and Posterior Callosal Section

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Frak, Victor; Paulignan, Yves; Jeannerod, Marc; Michel, Francois; Cohen, Henri

    2006-01-01

    Prehension movements of the right hand were recorded in a right-handed man (AC), with an injury to the left posterior parietal cortex (PPC) and with a section of the left half of the splenium. The kinematic analysis of AC's grasping movements in direct and perturbed conditions was compared to that of five control subjects. A novel effect in…

  9. Potential acuity meter for predicting visual acuity after Nd:YAG posterior capsulotomy

    SciTech Connect

    Smiddy, W.E.; Radulovic, D.; Yeo, J.H.; Stark, W.J.; Maumenee, A.E.

    1986-03-01

    We studied 30 patients with opacifications of the posterior capsule to determine if the potential acuity meter (PAM) could accurately predict final visual outcome after Nd:YAG discussion. The final visual acuity was within one line of the PAM prediction in 22 of 30 patients (73%), better by two or more lines in seven patients (23%), and worse in one patient (4%) by two lines. Although in thicker capsules the final acuity was occasionally better than the PAM prediction, the rates of false negative and false positive predictions were very low. Mild cystoid macular edema (3 patients), age-related macular degeneration (3 patients), intraocular lens status, and level of initial acuity did not diminish PAM accuracy. The PAM effectively predicts final visual acuity after YAG posterior capsulotomy, when used in a patient, unhurried manner.

  10. MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO POSTERIOR SAMPLING WITH THE HAMILTONIAN METHOD

    SciTech Connect

    K. HANSON

    2001-02-01

    The Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique provides a means for drawing random samples from a target probability density function (pdf). MCMC allows one to assess the uncertainties in a Bayesian analysis described by a numerically calculated posterior distribution. This paper describes the Hamiltonian MCMC technique in which a momentum variable is introduced for each parameter of the target pdf. In analogy to a physical system, a Hamiltonian H is defined as a kinetic energy involving the momenta plus a potential energy {var_phi}, where {var_phi} is minus the logarithm of the target pdf. Hamiltonian dynamics allows one to move along trajectories of constant H, taking large jumps in the parameter space with relatively few evaluations of {var_phi} and its gradient. The Hamiltonian algorithm alternates between picking a new momentum vector and following such trajectories. The efficiency of the Hamiltonian method for multidimensional isotropic Gaussian pdfs is shown to remain constant at around 7% for up to several hundred dimensions. The Hamiltonian method handles correlations among the variables much better than the standard Metropolis algorithm. A new test, based on the gradient of {var_phi}, is proposed to measure the convergence of the MCMC sequence.

  11. Visual input to the mouse lateral posterior and posterior thalamic nuclei: photoreceptive origins and retinotopic order

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Annette E.; Procyk, Christopher A.; Howarth, Michael; Walmsley, Lauren

    2016-01-01

    Key points The lateral posterior and posterior thalamic nuclei have been implicated in aspects of visually guided behaviour and reflex responses to light, including those dependent on melanopsin photoreception.Here we investigated the extent and basic properties of visually evoked activity across the mouse lateral posterior and posterior thalamus.We show that a subset of retinal projections to these regions derive from melanopsin‐expressing retinal ganglion cells and find many cells that exhibit melanopsin‐dependent changes in firing.We also show that subsets of cells across these regions integrate signals from both eyes in various ways and that, within the lateral posterior thalamus, visual responses are retinotopically ordered. Abstract In addition to the primary thalamocortical visual relay in the lateral geniculate nuclei, a number of other thalamic regions contribute to aspects of visual processing. Thus, the lateral posterior thalamic nuclei (LP/pulvinar) appear important for various functions including determining visual saliency, visually guided behaviours and, alongside dorsal portions of the posterior thalamic nuclei (Po), multisensory processing of information related to aversive stimuli. However, despite the growing importance of mice as a model for understanding visual system organisation, at present we know very little about the basic visual response properties of cells in the mouse LP or Po. Prompted by earlier suggestions that melanopsin photoreception might be important for certain functions of these nuclei, we first employ specific viral tracing to show that a subset of retinal projections to the LP derive from melanopsin‐expressing retinal ganglion cells. We next use multielectrode electrophysiology to demonstrate that LP and dorsal Po cells exhibit a variety of responses to simple visual stimuli including two distinct classes that express melanopsin‐dependent changes in firing (together comprising ∼25% of neurons we recorded). We also

  12. Association Between Lateral Posterior Tibial Slope, Body Mass Index, and ACL Injury Risk

    PubMed Central

    Bojicic, Katherine M.; Beaulieu, Mélanie L.; Imaizumi Krieger, Daniel Y.; Ashton-Miller, James A.; Wojtys, Edward M.

    2017-01-01

    Background: While body mass index (BMI), a modifiable parameter, and knee morphology, a nonmodifiable parameter, have been identified as risk factors for anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) rupture, the interaction between them remains unknown. An understanding of this interaction is important because greater compressive axial force (perhaps due to greater BMI) applied to a knee that is already at an increased risk because of its geometry, such as a steep lateral posterior tibial slope, could further increase the probability of ACL injury. Purpose: To quantify the relationship between BMI and select knee morphological parameters as potential risk factors for ACL injury. Study Design: Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Sagittal knee magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) files from 76 ACL-injured and 42 uninjured subjects were gathered from the University of Michigan Health System’s archive. The posterior tibial slope (PTS), middle cartilage slope (MCS), posterior meniscus height (PMH), and posterior meniscus bone angle (MBA) in the lateral compartment were measured using MRI. BMI was calculated from demographic data. The association between the knee structural factors, BMI, and ACL injury risk was explored using univariate and multivariate logistic regression. Results: PTS (P = .043) and MCS (P = .037) significantly predicted ACL injury risk. As PTS and MCS increased by 1°, odds of sustaining an ACL injury increased by 12% and 13%, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression analysis, which included PTS, BMI centered around the mean (cBMI), and their interaction, showed that this interaction predicted the odds of ACL rupture (P = .050; odds ratio, 1.03). For every 1-unit increase in BMI from the average that is combined with a 1° increase in PTS, the odds of an ACL tear increased by 15%. Conclusion: An increase in BMI was associated with increased risk of ACL tear in the presence of increased lateral posterior tibial slope. Larger values of PTS or

  13. Probability for Weather and Climate

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, L. A.

    2013-12-01

    Over the last 60 years, the availability of large-scale electronic computers has stimulated rapid and significant advances both in meteorology and in our understanding of the Earth System as a whole. The speed of these advances was due, in large part, to the sudden ability to explore nonlinear systems of equations. The computer allows the meteorologist to carry a physical argument to its conclusion; the time scales of weather phenomena then allow the refinement of physical theory, numerical approximation or both in light of new observations. Prior to this extension, as Charney noted, the practicing meteorologist could ignore the results of theory with good conscience. Today, neither the practicing meteorologist nor the practicing climatologist can do so, but to what extent, and in what contexts, should they place the insights of theory above quantitative simulation? And in what circumstances can one confidently estimate the probability of events in the world from model-based simulations? Despite solid advances of theory and insight made possible by the computer, the fidelity of our models of climate differs in kind from the fidelity of models of weather. While all prediction is extrapolation in time, weather resembles interpolation in state space, while climate change is fundamentally an extrapolation. The trichotomy of simulation, observation and theory which has proven essential in meteorology will remain incomplete in climate science. Operationally, the roles of probability, indeed the kinds of probability one has access too, are different in operational weather forecasting and climate services. Significant barriers to forming probability forecasts (which can be used rationally as probabilities) are identified. Monte Carlo ensembles can explore sensitivity, diversity, and (sometimes) the likely impact of measurement uncertainty and structural model error. The aims of different ensemble strategies, and fundamental differences in ensemble design to support of

  14. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew R.; Piro, Anthony; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-01-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. Using the observed BH mass distribution from Galactic X-ray binaries, we investigate the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass. Although the shape of the black hole formation probability function is poorly constrained by current measurements, we believe that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. We also consider some of the implications of this probability distribution, from its impact on the chemical enrichment from massive stars, to its connection with the structure of the core at the time of collapse, to the birth kicks that black holes receive. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be a useful input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  15. Posterior cortical atrophy: visuomotor deficits in reaching and grasping

    PubMed Central

    Meek, Benjamin P.; Shelton, Paul; Marotta, Jonathan J.

    2013-01-01

    Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA) is a rare clinical syndrome characterized by the predominance of higher-order visual disturbances such as optic ataxia, a characteristic of Balint's syndrome. Deficits result from progressive neurodegeneration of occipito-temporal and occipito-parietal cortices. The current study sought to explore the visuomotor functioning of four individuals with PCA by testing their ability to reach out and grasp real objects under various viewing conditions. Experiment 1 had participants reach out and grasp simple, rectangular blocks under visually- and memory-guided conditions. Experiment 2 explored participants' abilities to accurately reach for objects located in their visual periphery. This investigation revealed that PCA patients demonstrate many of the same deficits that have been previously reported in other individuals with optic ataxia, such as “magnetic misreaching”—a pathological reaching bias toward the point of visual fixation when grasping peripheral targets. Unlike many other individuals with optic ataxia, however, the patients in the current study also show symptoms indicative of damage to the more perceptual stream of visual processing, including abolished grip scaling during memory-guided grasping and deficits in face and object identification. These investigations are the first to perform a quantitative analysis of the visuomotor deficits exhibited by patients with PCA. Critically, this study helps characterize common symptoms of PCA, a vital first step for generating effective diagnostic criteria and therapeutic strategies for this understudied neurodegenerative disorder. PMID:23801956

  16. Tendoscopy in stage I posterior tibial tendon dysfunction.

    PubMed

    Khazen, Gabriel; Khazen, Cesar

    2012-09-01

    Stage I PTTD was defined by Johnson and Strom as tenosynovitis or tendinitis whereby tendon length remains normal, there is no hindfoot deformity, and diagnosis is basically clinical, characterized by swelling and tenderness posterior to the medial malleolus. The PTT has a hypovascular zone 40 mm proximal to the insertion of the tendon and 14 mm in length. Pain often is localized to this portion of the tendon. Tendon power might be normal, and the patient can perform single heel rise, sometimes with slight discomfort. This condition is often misdiagnosed as ankle sprain, which delays correct diagnosis and early treatment that may improve symptoms, stop the disease process, and prevent the development of adult acquired flatfoot deformity. Ultrasonography is a valuable adjunctive diagnostic tool for stage I PTTD, but the authors always indicate MRI for accurate diagnosis in such patients. Patients with stage I PTTD are first treated nonoperatively with nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs for 5 days, cryotherapy, local ultrasound, and a PTTD airlift brace (Aircast) for 3 to 6 months. If symptoms persist, surgical debridement and synovectomy has been suggested. PTT tendoscopic synovectomy is a minimally invasive and effective surgical procedure to treat patients with stage I PTTD. It has the advantages of less wound pain, and fewer scar and wound problems. If tendon tear is observed during tendoscopy, it must be repaired with nonabsorbable sutures using a 3- or 4-cm incision.

  17. Lectures on probability and statistics

    SciTech Connect

    Yost, G.P.

    1984-09-01

    These notes are based on a set of statistics lectures delivered at Imperial College to the first-year postgraduate students in High Energy Physics. They are designed for the professional experimental scientist. We begin with the fundamentals of probability theory, in which one makes statements about the set of possible outcomes of an experiment, based upon a complete a priori understanding of the experiment. For example, in a roll of a set of (fair) dice, one understands a priori that any given side of each die is equally likely to turn up. From that, we can calculate the probability of any specified outcome. We finish with the inverse problem, statistics. Here, one begins with a set of actual data (e.g., the outcomes of a number of rolls of the dice), and attempts to make inferences about the state of nature which gave those data (e.g., the likelihood of seeing any given side of any given die turn up). This is a much more difficult problem, of course, and one's solutions often turn out to be unsatisfactory in one respect or another.

  18. Modality, probability, and mental models.

    PubMed

    Hinterecker, Thomas; Knauff, Markus; Johnson-Laird, P N

    2016-10-01

    We report 3 experiments investigating novel sorts of inference, such as: A or B or both. Therefore, possibly (A and B). Where the contents were sensible assertions, for example, Space tourism will achieve widespread popularity in the next 50 years or advances in material science will lead to the development of antigravity materials in the next 50 years, or both. Most participants accepted the inferences as valid, though they are invalid in modal logic and in probabilistic logic too. But, the theory of mental models predicts that individuals should accept them. In contrast, inferences of this sort—A or B but not both. Therefore, A or B or both—are both logically valid and probabilistically valid. Yet, as the model theory also predicts, most reasoners rejected them. The participants’ estimates of probabilities showed that their inferences tended not to be based on probabilistic validity, but that they did rate acceptable conclusions as more probable than unacceptable conclusions. We discuss the implications of the results for current theories of reasoning.

  19. Maximum entropy principle and partial probability weighted moments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deng, Jian; Pandey, M. D.; Xie, W. C.

    2012-05-01

    Maximum entropy principle (MaxEnt) is usually used for estimating the probability density function under specified moment constraints. The density function is then integrated to obtain the cumulative distribution function, which needs to be inverted to obtain a quantile corresponding to some specified probability. In such analysis, consideration of higher ordermoments is important for accurate modelling of the distribution tail. There are three drawbacks for this conventional methodology: (1) Estimates of higher order (>2) moments from a small sample of data tend to be highly biased; (2) It can merely cope with problems with complete or noncensored samples; (3) Only probability weighted moments of integer orders have been utilized. These difficulties inevitably induce bias and inaccuracy of the resultant quantile estimates and therefore have been the main impediments to the application of the MaxEnt Principle in extreme quantile estimation. This paper attempts to overcome these problems and presents a distribution free method for estimating the quantile function of a non-negative randomvariable using the principle of maximum partial entropy subject to constraints of the partial probability weighted moments estimated from censored sample. The main contributions include: (1) New concepts, i.e., partial entropy, fractional partial probability weighted moments, and partial Kullback-Leibler measure are elegantly defined; (2) Maximum entropy principle is re-formulated to be constrained by fractional partial probability weighted moments; (3) New distribution free quantile functions are derived. Numerical analyses are performed to assess the accuracy of extreme value estimates computed from censored samples.

  20. Iodine-125 radiation of posterior uveal melanoma

    SciTech Connect

    Packer, S.

    1987-12-01

    Twenty-eight cases of posterior choroidal melanoma were treated with iodine-125 in gold eye plaques. Eleven cases were located within 3.0 mm of the optic nerve (group A), nine were within 3.0 mm of the fovea (group B), and eight were within 3.0 mm of the optic nerve and fovea (group C). The mean follow-up of group A was 46.3 months; group B, 25.5 months; and group C, 42.7 months. Complications included macular edema, cataract and tumor growth. Visual acuity remained within two lines of that tested preoperatively for 4 of 11 patients in group A, 4 of 9 in group B, and 5 of 8 in group C. These results with iodine-125 suggest it as an appropriate treatment for patients with choroidal melanoma located near optic nerve and/or macula.

  1. Polycythemia causing posterior segment vascular occlusions

    PubMed Central

    Ganesan, Suganeswari; Raman, Rajiv; Sharma, Tarun

    2017-01-01

    A 44-year-old male patient presented with features suggestive of transient central retinal artery occlusion (CRAO) followed by permanent CRAO and lateral posterior ciliary artery occlusion. He had diagnostic features of polycythemia vera (PV). When presented for the first time, the patient had features of ocular ischemia such as ocular pain, conjunctival congestion, and retinal opacification but with normal arm-to-retina time and normal arteriovenous transit time. During the second presentation, he had ocular pain, congested conjunctiva, retinal opacification, cherry red spot with box-carrying of retinal vessels, and choroidal infarct (Amalric's sign). He had lost light perception in that eye. Patients with polycythemia are prone to multifocal vascular occlusions and this can be the presenting feature in PV. A timely diagnosis and prompt management can prevent these repeated thromboembolic occlusive episodes. PMID:28298862

  2. Hemifacial spasm and posterior auricular muscle.

    PubMed

    Kiziltan, M; Sahin, R; Uzun, N; Kiziltan, G

    2006-09-01

    We aimed to investigate to which extent posterior auricular muscle (PAM) was affected and whether it contributed to the reflex activity in hemifacial spasm (HFS) patients. 19 HFS patients' spasm activities were recorded from facial muscles. Spasm activity of PAM was recorded synchronously on the symptomatic side in all patients. Lateral spread of blink reflex to orbicularis oris and PAMs were recorded in all but two patients. Botulinum toxin was applied to the PAM with the 14 patients presenting tinnitus, "clicking" or a "ticking" sound on the sane side and other positive auricular symptoms. After treatment, there was symptomatic improvement in 9 of 14 patients. The patients presenting with auricular symptoms and showing spasm activity in their PAMs can be thought as a candidate for botulinum toxin treatment scheme.

  3. Constrained Mathematics for Calculating Logical Safety and Reliability Probabilities with Uncertain Inputs

    SciTech Connect

    Cooper, D.K.; Cooper, J.A.; Ferson, S.

    1999-01-21

    Calculating safety and reliability probabilities with functions of uncertain variables can yield incorrect or misleading results if some precautions are not taken. One important consideration is the application of constrained mathematics for calculating probabilities for functions that contain repeated variables. This paper includes a description of the problem and develops a methodology for obtaining an accurate solution.

  4. Impact of MCNP unresolved resonance probability-table treatment on uranium and plutonium benchmarks

    SciTech Connect

    Mosteller, R.D.; Little, R.C.

    1998-12-31

    Versions of MCNP up through and including 4B have not accurately modeled neutron self-shielding effects in the unresolved resonance energy region. Recently, a probability-table treatment has been incorporated into a developmental version of MCNP. This paper presents MCNP results for a variety of uranium and plutonium critical benchmarks, calculated with and without the probability-table treatment.

  5. Study of the most probable explanation in hybrid Bayesian networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Wei; Chang, KC

    2011-06-01

    In addition to computing the posterior distributions for hidden variables in Bayesian networks, one other important inference task is to find the most probable explanation (MPE). MPE provides the most likely configurations to explain away the evidence and helps to manage hypotheses for decision making. In recent years, researchers have proposed a few methods to find the MPE for discrete Bayesian networks. However, finding the MPE for hybrid networks remains challenging. In this paper, we first briefy review the current state-of-the-art in the literature regarding various explanation methods. We then present an algorithm by using a modified max-product clique tree to find the MPE for accommodating the needs in hybrid Bayesian networks. A detailed example is demonstrated to show the algorithm.

  6. Dependences of posterior pdf on observational constraint and model errors in nonlinear data assimilation.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Beechler, B. E.; Vukicevic, T.; Weiss, J. B.

    2008-12-01

    In this study, the relationship between data assimilation solutions and nonlinear model properties together with observational constraint is analyzed using a numerical technique based on the inverse problem theory formulated by Mosegaard and Tarantola. By this theory, the inverse problem and solution are defined via convolution and conjunction of probability density functions (pdfs) that represent stochastic information obtained from the model, observations and prior knowledge in a joint multidimensional space. This theory provides an explicit analysis of the nonlinear model function, together with information about uncertainties in the model, observations, and prior knowledge through construction of the joint probability density, from which marginal posterior solution functions can then be evaluated. The numerical analysis technique derived from the theory computes the component probability density functions in discretized form via a combination of function mapping on a discrete grid in the model and observation phase space, and sampling from known parametric distributions. This numerical diagnostic analysis technique was first demonstrated in Vukicevic and Posselt (2008) on examples of two well known simplified models of Atmospheric physics: Damped oscillations and Lorenz' 3-component model of dry cellular convection. In the current study the diagnostic analysis of the controls of posterior pdf in data assimilation is performed using a beta plane quasi- geostrophic numerical model. The control parameter space in the model consists of coefficients of two- dimensional Fourier decomposition of stream function fields within regions of unstable dynamical modes. The impact of assumed modeling errors and spatial and temporal distribution of observations on the posterior multi dimensional pdf is studied to evaluate conditions which render this pdf uni-modal. The validity of the Gaussian approximation is then evaluated.

  7. MSPI False Indication Probability Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Dana Kelly; Kurt Vedros; Robert Youngblood

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines false indication probabilities in the context of the Mitigating System Performance Index (MSPI), in order to investigate the pros and cons of different approaches to resolving two coupled issues: (1) sensitivity to the prior distribution used in calculating the Bayesian-corrected unreliability contribution to the MSPI, and (2) whether (in a particular plant configuration) to model the fuel oil transfer pump (FOTP) as a separate component, or integrally to its emergency diesel generator (EDG). False indication probabilities were calculated for the following situations: (1) all component reliability parameters at their baseline values, so that the true indication is green, meaning that an indication of white or above would be false positive; (2) one or more components degraded to the extent that the true indication would be (mid) white, and “false” would be green (negative) or yellow (negative) or red (negative). In key respects, this was the approach taken in NUREG-1753. The prior distributions examined were the constrained noninformative (CNI) prior used currently by the MSPI, a mixture of conjugate priors, the Jeffreys noninformative prior, a nonconjugate log(istic)-normal prior, and the minimally informative prior investigated in (Kelly et al., 2010). The mid-white performance state was set at ?CDF = ?10 ? 10-6/yr. For each simulated time history, a check is made of whether the calculated ?CDF is above or below 10-6/yr. If the parameters were at their baseline values, and ?CDF > 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false positive. Conversely, if one or all of the parameters are set to values corresponding to ?CDF > 10-6/yr but that time history’s ?CDF < 10-6/yr, this is counted as a false negative indication. The false indication (positive or negative) probability is then estimated as the number of false positive or negative counts divided by the number of time histories (100,000). Results are presented for a set of base case parameter values

  8. Diagnostics for insufficiencies of posterior calculations in Bayesian signal inference.

    PubMed

    Dorn, Sebastian; Oppermann, Niels; Ensslin, Torsten A

    2013-11-01

    We present an error-diagnostic validation method for posterior distributions in Bayesian signal inference, an advancement of a previous work. It transfers deviations from the correct posterior into characteristic deviations from a uniform distribution of a quantity constructed for this purpose. We show that this method is able to reveal and discriminate several kinds of numerical and approximation errors, as well as their impact on the posterior distribution. For this we present four typical analytical examples of posteriors with incorrect variance, skewness, position of the maximum, or normalization. We show further how this test can be applied to multidimensional signals.

  9. Model and test in a fungus of the probability that beneficial mutations survive drift.

    PubMed

    Gifford, Danna R; de Visser, J Arjan G M; Wahl, Lindi M

    2013-02-23

    Determining the probability of fixation of beneficial mutations is critically important for building predictive models of adaptive evolution. Despite considerable theoretical work, models of fixation probability have stood untested for nearly a century. However, recent advances in experimental and theoretical techniques permit the development of models with testable predictions. We developed a new model for the probability of surviving genetic drift, a major component of fixation probability, for novel beneficial mutations in the fungus Aspergillus nidulans, based on the life-history characteristics of its colony growth on a solid surface. We tested the model by measuring the probability of surviving drift in 11 adapted strains introduced into wild-type populations of different densities. We found that the probability of surviving drift increased with mutant invasion fitness, and decreased with wild-type density, as expected. The model accurately predicted the survival probability for the majority of mutants, yielding one of the first direct tests of the extinction probability of beneficial mutations.

  10. Techniques for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, R.L. ); Mann, C.J. )

    1992-01-01

    The primary goal of this study has been to search out and evaluate existing quantitative methods for determining probabilities of events and processes in fields that seemed to be most closely related to the majority of the events considered important to long-term performance by earlier workers. These fields are thermomechanical behavior, mining engineering, hydrology, climatology, seismicity and tectonics, seismic hazard, volcanology, geochemistry, and resource exploration. Most of these events and processes can initiate, releases of the radioactive waste from a geologic repository, although geochemical processes primarily affect transport of wastes after release. The quantitative methods for determining probabilities identified here are those that have been reported in the literature, and some that could be used but have not been reported. Merits and limitations of each method have been described, and the current availability of databases adequate for determining accurate probabilities of events and processes has been appraised. A secondary goal has been to identify phenomena for which accurate probabilities cannot be determined now and areas of research that could materially improve our ability to make better probabilistic predictions in the immediate future.

  11. Techniques for determining probabilities of geologic events and processes

    SciTech Connect

    Hunter, R.L.; Mann, C.J.

    1992-10-01

    The primary goal of this study has been to search out and evaluate existing quantitative methods for determining probabilities of events and processes in fields that seemed to be most closely related to the majority of the events considered important to long-term performance by earlier workers. These fields are thermomechanical behavior, mining engineering, hydrology, climatology, seismicity and tectonics, seismic hazard, volcanology, geochemistry, and resource exploration. Most of these events and processes can initiate, releases of the radioactive waste from a geologic repository, although geochemical processes primarily affect transport of wastes after release. The quantitative methods for determining probabilities identified here are those that have been reported in the literature, and some that could be used but have not been reported. Merits and limitations of each method have been described, and the current availability of databases adequate for determining accurate probabilities of events and processes has been appraised. A secondary goal has been to identify phenomena for which accurate probabilities cannot be determined now and areas of research that could materially improve our ability to make better probabilistic predictions in the immediate future.

  12. WITPO (What Is the Probability Of).

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ericksen, Donna Bird; And Others

    1991-01-01

    Included in this probability board game are the requirements, the rules, the board, and 44 sample questions. This game can be used as a probability unit review for practice on basic skills and algorithms, such as computing compound probability and using Pascal's triangle to solve binomial probability problems. (JJK)

  13. Associativity and normative credal probability.

    PubMed

    Snow, P

    2002-01-01

    Cox's Theorem is a widely cited motivation for probabilistic models of uncertain belief. The theorem relates the associativity of the logical connectives to that of the arithmetic operations of probability. Recent questions about the correctness of Cox's Theorem have been resolved, but there are new questions about one functional equation used by Cox in 1946. This equation is missing from his later work. Advances in knowledge since 1946 and changes in Cox's research interests explain the equation's disappearance. Other associativity-based motivations avoid functional equations altogether, and so may be more transparently applied to finite domains and discrete beliefs. A discrete counterpart of Cox's Theorem can be assembled from results that have been in the literature since 1959.

  14. Posterior tibial subluxation and short-term arthritis resulting from failed posterior cruciate ligament reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Mavrodontidis, Alexandros N; Papadonikolakis, Anastasios; Moebius, Ulf G; Gelalis, Ioannis; Motsis, Efstathios; Soucacos, Panayotis N

    2003-01-01

    Posterior tibial subluxations because of combined or isolated posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) injuries require detailed evaluation. PCL reconstructions are difficult procedures because of the low rate of such injuries and the complex anatomy of the ligament. We report on 2 cases of failed PCL reconstruction because of malpositioned femoral tunnels. These 2 cases support the existing biomechanical evidence that the correct placement of the tunnels, especially in the femur, is a major factor in defining the outcome. It seems that the drilling of the tunnels, especially in the femur, during PCL reconstruction must be performed with accuracy and always be evaluated in cases of graft failure. In addition, failed PCL reconstructions are usually accompanied by a short-term excessive arthritis that results in poor functional outcome.

  15. 38 CFR 4.46 - Accurate measurement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Accurate measurement. 4... RATING DISABILITIES Disability Ratings The Musculoskeletal System § 4.46 Accurate measurement. Accurate measurement of the length of stumps, excursion of joints, dimensions and location of scars with respect...

  16. 38 CFR 4.46 - Accurate measurement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Accurate measurement. 4... RATING DISABILITIES Disability Ratings The Musculoskeletal System § 4.46 Accurate measurement. Accurate measurement of the length of stumps, excursion of joints, dimensions and location of scars with respect...

  17. 38 CFR 4.46 - Accurate measurement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Accurate measurement. 4... RATING DISABILITIES Disability Ratings The Musculoskeletal System § 4.46 Accurate measurement. Accurate measurement of the length of stumps, excursion of joints, dimensions and location of scars with respect...

  18. 38 CFR 4.46 - Accurate measurement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Accurate measurement. 4... RATING DISABILITIES Disability Ratings The Musculoskeletal System § 4.46 Accurate measurement. Accurate measurement of the length of stumps, excursion of joints, dimensions and location of scars with respect...

  19. 38 CFR 4.46 - Accurate measurement.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 38 Pensions, Bonuses, and Veterans' Relief 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Accurate measurement. 4... RATING DISABILITIES Disability Ratings The Musculoskeletal System § 4.46 Accurate measurement. Accurate measurement of the length of stumps, excursion of joints, dimensions and location of scars with respect...

  20. Costello syndrome: Analysis of the posterior cranial fossa in children with posterior fossa crowding.

    PubMed

    Calandrelli, Rosalinda; D'Apolito, Gabriella; Marco, Panfili; Zampino, Giuseppe; Tartaglione, Tommaso; Colosimo, Cesare

    2015-06-01

    This study aimed to assess changes in the posterior cranial fossa (PCF) to shed light on the mechanism of cerebellar herniation in children with Costello syndrome (CS) and posterior fossa crowding. We performed a morphovolumetric PCF analysis on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in seven children with CS (mean age 31 ± 16 months) comparing the MRI scans with those of seven age-matched healthy subjects.PCF volume (PCFV), PCF brain volume (PCFBV) and cerebellar volume (CeV) were assessed on axial T2-weighted MRI. Morphometric parameters (diameters of the foramen magnum, tentorial angle, basiocciput, supraocciput, basisphenoid and exocciput lengths) were measured on sagittal T1-weighted MRI. The volume of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces was calculated as PCFV minus PCFBV.Five out of seven CS children showed tonsillar herniation in the upper cervical canal; no child had hydrocephalus but three out of seven children showed ventriculomegaly. In addition, the PCFV/PCFBV ratio, PCFV, CSF spaces volume, basiocciput, basisphenoid and exocciput lengths and latero-lateral and antero-posterior diameters of the foramen magnum were significantly reduced, whereas no significant changes were found in supraocciput length, PCFBV, CeV or hindbrain volume. The volumetric reduction of the PCF due to bony posterior fossa hypoplasia is a predisposing factor for developing cerebellar tonsillar herniation through the foramen magnum in children with CS. The altered anatomy of the foramen magnum and upward expansion of the PCF secondary to an increased tentorial slope serves to explain the possible mechanism of cerebellar herniation in patients with CS.

  1. Costello syndrome: Analysis of the posterior cranial fossa in children with posterior fossa crowding

    PubMed Central

    D’Apolito, Gabriella; Panfili, Marco; Zampino, Giuseppe; Tartaglione, Tommaso; Colosimo, Cesare

    2015-01-01

    This study aimed to assess changes in the posterior cranial fossa (PCF) to shed light on the mechanism of cerebellar herniation in children with Costello syndrome (CS) and posterior fossa crowding. We performed a morphovolumetric PCF analysis on brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in seven children with CS (mean age 31 ± 16 months) comparing the MRI scans with those of seven age-matched healthy subjects. PCF volume (PCFV), PCF brain volume (PCFBV) and cerebellar volume (CeV) were assessed on axial T2-weighted MRI. Morphometric parameters (diameters of the foramen magnum, tentorial angle, basiocciput, supraocciput, basisphenoid and exocciput lengths) were measured on sagittal T1-weighted MRI. The volume of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) spaces was calculated as PCFV minus PCFBV. Five out of seven CS children showed tonsillar herniation in the upper cervical canal; no child had hydrocephalus but three out of seven children showed ventriculomegaly. In addition, the PCFV/PCFBV ratio, PCFV, CSF spaces volume, basiocciput, basisphenoid and exocciput lengths and latero-lateral and antero-posterior diameters of the foramen magnum were significantly reduced, whereas no significant changes were found in supraocciput length, PCFBV, CeV or hindbrain volume The volumetric reduction of the PCF due to bony posterior fossa hypoplasia is a predisposing factor for developing cerebellar tonsillar herniation through the foramen magnum in children with CS. The altered anatomy of the foramen magnum and upward expansion of the PCF secondary to an increased tentorial slope serves to explain the possible mechanism of cerebellar herniation in patients with CS. PMID:26246091

  2. Digging up the recent Spanish memory: genetic identification of human remains from mass graves of the Spanish Civil War and posterior dictatorship.

    PubMed

    Baeta, Miriam; Núñez, Carolina; Cardoso, Sergio; Palencia-Madrid, Leire; Herrasti, Lourdes; Etxeberria, Francisco; de Pancorbo, Marian M

    2015-11-01

    The Spanish Civil War (1936-1939) and posterior dictatorship (until 1970s) stands as one of the major conflicts in the recent history of Spain. It led to nearly two hundred thousand men and women executed or murdered extra-judicially or after dubious legal procedures. Nowadays, most of them remain unidentified or even buried in irretraceable mass graves across Spain. Here, we present the genetic identification of human remains found in 26 mass graves located in Northern Spain. A total of 252 post-mortem remains were analyzed and compared to 186 relatives, allowing the identification of 87 victims. Overall, a significant success of DNA profiling was reached, since informative profiles (≥ 12 STRs and/or mitochondrial DNA profile) were obtained in 85.71% of the remains. This high performance in DNA profiling from challenging samples demonstrated the efficacy of DNA extraction and amplification methods used herein, given that only around 14.29% of the samples did not provide an informative genetic profile for the analysis performed, probably due to the presence of degraded and/or limited DNA in these remains. However, this study shows a partial identification success rate, which is clearly a consequence of the lack of both appropriate family members for genetic comparisons and accurate information about the victims' location. Hence, further perseverance in the exhumation of other intact graves as well as in the search of more alleged relatives is crucial in order to facilitate and increase the number of genetic identifications.

  3. Posterior regeneration in Isodiametra pulchra (Acoela, Acoelomorpha)

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Introduction Regeneration is a widespread phenomenon in the animal kingdom, but the capacity to restore damaged or missing tissue varies greatly between different phyla and even within the same phylum. However, the distantly related Acoelomorpha and Platyhelminthes share a strikingly similar stem-cell system and regenerative capacity. Therefore, comparing the underlying mechanisms in these two phyla paves the way for an increased understanding of the evolution of this developmental process. To date, Isodiametra pulchra is the most promising candidate as a model for the Acoelomorpha, as it reproduces steadily under laboratory conditions and is amenable to various techniques, including the silencing of gene expression by RNAi. In order to provide an essential framework for future studies, we report the succession of regeneration events via the use of cytochemical, histological and microscopy techniques, and specify the total number of cells in adult individuals. Results Isodiametra pulchra is not capable of regenerating a new head, but completely restores all posterior structures within 10 days. Following amputation, the wound closes via the contraction of local muscle fibres and an extension of the dorsal epidermis. Subsequently, stem cells and differentiating cells invade the wound area and form a loosely delimited blastema. After two days, the posterior end is re-patterned with the male (and occasionally the female) genital primordium being apparent. Successively, these primordia differentiate into complete copulatory organs. The size of the body and also of the male and female copulatory organs, as well as the distance between the copulatory organs, progressively increase and by nine days copulation is possible. Adult individuals with an average length of 670 μm consist of approximately 8100 cells. Conclusion Isodiametra pulchra regenerates through a combination of morphallactic and epimorphic processes. Existing structures are “re-modelled” and provide a

  4. Paratrooper's Ankle Fracture: Posterior Malleolar Fracture

    PubMed Central

    Young, Ki Won; Cho, Jae Ho; Kim, Hyung Seuk; Cho, Hun Ki; Lee, Kyung Tai

    2015-01-01

    Background We assessed the frequency and types of ankle fractures that frequently occur during parachute landings of special operation unit personnel and analyzed the causes. Methods Fifty-six members of the special force brigade of the military who had sustained ankle fractures during parachute landings between January 2005 and April 2010 were retrospectively analyzed. The injury sites and fracture sites were identified and the fracture types were categorized by the Lauge-Hansen and Weber classifications. Follow-up surveys were performed with respect to the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society ankle-hindfoot score, patient satisfaction, and return to preinjury activity. Results The patients were all males with a mean age of 23.6 years. There were 28 right and 28 left ankle fractures. Twenty-two patients had simple fractures and 34 patients had comminuted fractures. The average number of injury and fractures sites per person was 2.07 (116 injuries including a syndesmosis injury and a deltoid injury) and 1.75 (98 fracture sites), respectively. Twenty-three cases (41.07%) were accompanied by posterior malleolar fractures. Fifty-five patients underwent surgery; of these, 30 had plate internal fixations. Weber type A, B, and C fractures were found in 4, 38, and 14 cases, respectively. Based on the Lauge-Hansen classification, supination-external rotation injuries were found in 20 cases, supination-adduction injuries in 22 cases, pronation-external rotation injuries in 11 cases, tibiofibular fractures in 2 cases, and simple medial malleolar fractures in 2 cases. The mean follow-up period was 23.8 months, and the average follow-up American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society ankle-hindfoot score was 85.42. Forty-five patients (80.36%) reported excellent or good satisfaction with the outcome. Conclusions Posterior malleolar fractures occurred in 41.07% of ankle fractures sustained in parachute landings. Because most of the ankle fractures in parachute injuries were

  5. Trajectory versus probability density entropy.

    PubMed

    Bologna, M; Grigolini, P; Karagiorgis, M; Rosa, A

    2001-07-01

    We show that the widely accepted conviction that a connection can be established between the probability density entropy and the Kolmogorov-Sinai (KS) entropy is questionable. We adopt the definition of density entropy as a functional of a distribution density whose time evolution is determined by a transport equation, conceived as the only prescription to use for the calculation. Although the transport equation is built up for the purpose of affording a picture equivalent to that stemming from trajectory dynamics, no direct use of trajectory time evolution is allowed, once the transport equation is defined. With this definition in mind we prove that the detection of a time regime of increase of the density entropy with a rate identical to the KS entropy is possible only in a limited number of cases. The proposals made by some authors to establish a connection between the two entropies in general, violate our definition of density entropy and imply the concept of trajectory, which is foreign to that of density entropy.

  6. Radial head fracture associated with posterior interosseous nerve injury.

    PubMed

    Terra, Bernardo Barcellos; Sassine, Tannus Jorge; Lima, Guilherme de Freitas; Rodrigues, Leandro Marano; Padua, David Victoria Hoffmann; Nadai, Anderson de

    2016-01-01

    Fractures of the radial head and radial neck correspond to 1.7-5.4% of all fractures and approximately 30% may present associated injuries. In the literature, there are few reports of radial head fracture with posterior interosseous nerve injury. This study aimed to report a case of radial head fracture associated with posterior interosseous nerve injury.

  7. ACCURATE CHEMICAL MASTER EQUATION SOLUTION USING MULTI-FINITE BUFFERS

    PubMed Central

    Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a fundamental framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic networks. Because of the multi-scale nature of many networks where reaction rates have large disparity, directly solving dCMEs is intractable due to the exploding size of the state space. It is important to truncate the state space effectively with quantified errors, so accurate solutions can be computed. It is also important to know if all major probabilistic peaks have been computed. Here we introduce the Accurate CME (ACME) algorithm for obtaining direct solutions to dCMEs. With multi-finite buffers for reducing the state space by O(n!), exact steady-state and time-evolving network probability landscapes can be computed. We further describe a theoretical framework of aggregating microstates into a smaller number of macrostates by decomposing a network into independent aggregated birth and death processes, and give an a priori method for rapidly determining steady-state truncation errors. The maximal sizes of the finite buffers for a given error tolerance can also be pre-computed without costly trial solutions of dCMEs. We show exactly computed probability landscapes of three multi-scale networks, namely, a 6-node toggle switch, 11-node phage-lambda epigenetic circuit, and 16-node MAPK cascade network, the latter two with no known solutions. We also show how probabilities of rare events can be computed from first-passage times, another class of unsolved problems challenging for simulation-based techniques due to large separations in time scales. Overall, the ACME method enables accurate and efficient solutions of the dCME for a large class of networks. PMID:27761104

  8. ACCURATE CHEMICAL MASTER EQUATION SOLUTION USING MULTI-FINITE BUFFERS.

    PubMed

    Cao, Youfang; Terebus, Anna; Liang, Jie

    2016-01-01

    The discrete chemical master equation (dCME) provides a fundamental framework for studying stochasticity in mesoscopic networks. Because of the multi-scale nature of many networks where reaction rates have large disparity, directly solving dCMEs is intractable due to the exploding size of the state space. It is important to truncate the state space effectively with quantified errors, so accurate solutions can be computed. It is also important to know if all major probabilistic peaks have been computed. Here we introduce the Accurate CME (ACME) algorithm for obtaining direct solutions to dCMEs. With multi-finite buffers for reducing the state space by O(n!), exact steady-state and time-evolving network probability landscapes can be computed. We further describe a theoretical framework of aggregating microstates into a smaller number of macrostates by decomposing a network into independent aggregated birth and death processes, and give an a priori method for rapidly determining steady-state truncation errors. The maximal sizes of the finite buffers for a given error tolerance can also be pre-computed without costly trial solutions of dCMEs. We show exactly computed probability landscapes of three multi-scale networks, namely, a 6-node toggle switch, 11-node phage-lambda epigenetic circuit, and 16-node MAPK cascade network, the latter two with no known solutions. We also show how probabilities of rare events can be computed from first-passage times, another class of unsolved problems challenging for simulation-based techniques due to large separations in time scales. Overall, the ACME method enables accurate and efficient solutions of the dCME for a large class of networks.

  9. Wnt signaling and the evolution of embryonic posterior development.

    PubMed

    Martin, Benjamin L; Kimelman, David

    2009-03-10

    During vertebrate embryogenesis, most of the mesodermal tissue posterior to the head forms from a progenitor population that continuously adds blocks of muscles (the somites) from the back end of the embryo. Recent work in less commonly studied arthropods--the flour beetle Tribolium and the common house spider--provides evidence suggesting that this posterior growth process might be evolutionarily conserved, with canonical Wnt signaling playing a key role in vertebrates and invertebrates. We discuss these findings as well as other evidence that suggests that the genetic network controlling posterior growth was already present in the last common ancestor of the Bilateria. We also highlight other interesting commonalities as well as differences between posterior growth in vertebrates and invertebrates, suggest future areas of research, and hypothesize that posterior growth may facilitate evolution of animal body plans.

  10. Management of the posterior capsule during pediatric intraocular lens implantation.

    PubMed

    Buckley, E G; Klombers, L A; Seaber, J H; Scalise-Gordy, A; Minzter, R

    1993-06-15

    One of the major obstacles in pediatric intraocular lens implantation has been the subsequent dense opacification of the posterior capsule. We used a modification of the standard pediatric cataract surgical procedure, which involved endocapsular cataract extraction, posterior chamber intraocular lens implantation, pars plana posterior capsulotomy, and pars plana anterior vitrectomy in 20 consecutive patients with unilateral traumatic, radiation-induced, and developmental cataracts. Visual axes were rapidly restored in all patients without further intervention for posterior capsule opacification. Visual acuity returned to 20/40 or better in all patients and 75% of all patients (15 patients) reached maximum improvement by five weeks. No complications attributed to intraoperative removal of the posterior capsule occurred.

  11. Towards accurate and precise estimates of lion density.

    PubMed

    Elliot, Nicholas B; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M

    2016-12-13

    Reliable estimates of animal density are fundamental to our understanding of ecological processes and population dynamics. Furthermore, their accuracy is vital to conservation biology since wildlife authorities rely on these figures to make decisions. However, it is notoriously difficult to accurately estimate density for wide-ranging species such as carnivores that occur at low densities. In recent years, significant progress has been made in density estimation of Asian carnivores, but the methods have not been widely adapted to African carnivores. African lions (Panthera leo) provide an excellent example as although abundance indices have been shown to produce poor inferences, they continue to be used to estimate lion density and inform management and policy. In this study we adapt a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture model to estimate lion density in the Maasai Mara National Reserve (MMNR) and surrounding conservancies in Kenya. We utilize sightings data from a three-month survey period to produce statistically rigorous spatial density estimates. Overall posterior mean lion density was estimated to be 16.85 (posterior standard deviation = 1.30) lions over one year of age per 100km(2) with a sex ratio of 2.2♀:1♂. We argue that such methods should be developed, improved and favored over less reliable methods such as track and call-up surveys. We caution against trend analyses based on surveys of differing reliability and call for a unified framework to assess lion numbers across their range in order for better informed management and policy decisions to be made. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  12. New infectious etiologies for posterior uveitis.

    PubMed

    Khairallah, Moncef; Kahloun, Rim; Ben Yahia, Salim; Jelliti, Bechir; Messaoud, Riadh

    2013-01-01

    Emergent and resurgent arthropod vector-borne diseases are major causes of systemic morbidity and death and expanding worldwide. Among them, viral and bacterial agents including West Nile virus, Dengue fever, Chikungunya, Rift Valley fever, and rickettsioses have been recently associated with an array of ocular manifestations. These include anterior uveitis, retinitis, chorioretinitis, retinal vasculitis and optic nerve involvement. Proper clinical diagnosis of any of these infectious diseases is based on epidemiological data, history, systemic symptoms and signs, and the pattern of ocular involvement. The diagnosis is usually confirmed by the detection of a specific antibody in serum. Ocular involvement associated with emergent infections usually has a self-limited course, but it can result in persistent visual impairment. There is currently no proven specific treatment for arboviral diseases, and therapy is mostly supportive. Vaccination for humans against these viruses is still in the research phase. Doxycycline is the treatment of choice for rickettsial diseases. Prevention, including public measures to reduce the number of mosquitoes and personal protection, remains the mainstay for arthropod vector disease control. Influenza A (H1N1) virus was responsible for a pandemic human influenza in 2009, and was recently associated with various posterior segment changes.

  13. Facilitating text reading in posterior cortical atrophy

    PubMed Central

    Rajdev, Kishan; Shakespeare, Timothy J.; Leff, Alexander P.; Crutch, Sebastian J.

    2015-01-01

    Objective: We report (1) the quantitative investigation of text reading in posterior cortical atrophy (PCA), and (2) the effects of 2 novel software-based reading aids that result in dramatic improvements in the reading ability of patients with PCA. Methods: Reading performance, eye movements, and fixations were assessed in patients with PCA and typical Alzheimer disease and in healthy controls (experiment 1). Two reading aids (single- and double-word) were evaluated based on the notion that reducing the spatial and oculomotor demands of text reading might support reading in PCA (experiment 2). Results: Mean reading accuracy in patients with PCA was significantly worse (57%) compared with both patients with typical Alzheimer disease (98%) and healthy controls (99%); spatial aspects of passages were the primary determinants of text reading ability in PCA. Both aids led to considerable gains in reading accuracy (PCA mean reading accuracy: single-word reading aid = 96%; individual patient improvement range: 6%–270%) and self-rated measures of reading. Data suggest a greater efficiency of fixations and eye movements under the single-word reading aid in patients with PCA. Conclusions: These findings demonstrate how neurologic characterization of a neurodegenerative syndrome (PCA) and detailed cognitive analysis of an important everyday skill (reading) can combine to yield aids capable of supporting important everyday functional abilities. Classification of evidence: This study provides Class III evidence that for patients with PCA, 2 software-based reading aids (single-word and double-word) improve reading accuracy. PMID:26138948

  14. Automatic quantification of posterior capsule opacification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barman, Sarah A.; Uyyanonvara, Bunyarit; Boyce, James F.; Sanguinetti, Giorgia; Hollick, Emma J.; Meacock, William R.; Spalton, David J.; Paplinski, Andrew P.

    2000-06-01

    After Cataract surgery where a plastic implant lens is implanted into the eye to replace the natural lens, many patients suffer from cell growth across a membrane situated at the back of the lens which degrades their vision. The cell growth is known as Posterior Capsule Opacification (or PCO). It is important to be able to quantify PCO so that the effect of different implant lens types and surgical techniques may be evaluated. Initial results obtained using a neural network to detect PCO from implant lenses are compared to an established but less automated method of detection, which segments the images using texture segmentation in conjunction with co- occurrence matrices. Tests show that the established method performs well in clinical validation and repeatability trials. The requirement to use a neural network to analyze the implant lens images evolved from the analysis of over 1000 images using the established co-occurrence matrix segmentation method. The work shows that a method based on neural networks is a promising tool to automate the procedure of calculating PCO.

  15. Representation of numerosity in posterior parietal cortex

    PubMed Central

    Roitman, Jamie D.; Brannon, Elizabeth M.; Platt, Michael L.

    2012-01-01

    Humans and animals appear to share a similar representation of number as an analog magnitude on an internal, subjective scale. Neurological and neurophysiological data suggest that posterior parietal cortex (PPC) is a critical component of the circuits that form the basis of numerical abilities in humans. Patients with parietal lesions are impaired in their ability to access the deep meaning of numbers. Acalculiac patients with inferior parietal damage often have difficulty performing arithmetic (2 + 4?) or number bisection (what is between 3 and 5?) tasks, but are able to recite multiplication tables and read or write numerals. Functional imaging studies of neurologically intact humans performing subtraction, number comparison, and non-verbal magnitude comparison tasks show activity in areas within the intraparietal sulcus (IPS). Taken together, clinical cases and imaging studies support a critical role for parietal cortex in the mental manipulation of numerical quantities. Further, responses of single PPC neurons in non-human primates are sensitive to the numerosity of visual stimuli independent of low-level stimulus qualities. When monkeys are trained to make explicit judgments about the numerical value of such stimuli, PPC neurons encode their cardinal numerical value; without such training PPC neurons appear to encode numerical magnitude in an analog fashion. Here we suggest that the spatial and integrative properties of PPC neurons contribute to their critical role in numerical cognition. PMID:22666194

  16. [Posterior reversible encephalopathy: beyond the original description].

    PubMed

    Avecillas-Chasín, Josué M; Matías-Guiu, Jordi A; Bautista-Balbás, Luis

    2015-07-16

    Introduccion. La encefalopatia posterior reversible (EPR) es una entidad clinicorradiologica caracterizada tipicamente por cuadros de cefalea, alteraciones visuales y crisis epilepticas, asociada a edema vasogeno corticosubcortical reversible en la neuroimagen. Objetivo. Presentar una revision de los aspectos fisiopatologicos de esta entidad y tambien de las asociaciones de la EPR descritas en la bibliografia. Desarrollo. Existe una serie de factores desencadenantes bien conocidos, como las crisis hipertensivas, la eclampsia o ciertos medicamentos. La descripcion de cada vez mas casos atipicos desde un punto de vista clinico y radiologico, asi como de posibles nuevos factores desencadenantes, obliga a una redefinicion de la entidad. Conclusiones. La EPR es un conjunto de manifestaciones clinicas y radiologicas que no se pueden enmarcar dentro la palabra 'sindrome'. Aunque la EPR se ha comunicado como irreversible en ciertos casos, el concepto de reversibilidad debe mantenerse en la definicion de esta entidad, ya que, en la mayor parte de los casos, el rapido control de la condicion desencadenante de la EPR permite la reversibilidad de las lesiones.

  17. Dynamic properties of the posterior cricoarytenoid muscle.

    PubMed

    Cooper, D S; Shindo, M; Sinha, U; Hast, M H; Rice, D H

    1994-12-01

    The aim of this research was to investigate the contractile properties of the posterior cricoarytenoid (PCA) muscle. Simultaneous measurements were made of the isometric force, temperature, and electromyographic activity of the dorsal cricoarytenoid muscle of anesthetized dogs during supramaximal stimulation of the recurrent laryngeal nerve for twitch and tetanic contraction. The conduction delay between stimulation of the recurrent nerve at the level of the larynx and the onset of the muscle action potential averaged 2.0 +/- 0.2 milliseconds (ms), and the latent period between the onset of electrical activity of the muscle and the onset of contraction had a mean duration of 3.3 +/- 0.8 ms. The mean of isometric contraction times found was 33.3 +/- 2.0 ms, shorter than most previous studies of canine PCA muscle. Tetanic frequency defined as smooth contraction was higher than previous estimates. Considerations of scaling of physiological time based on animal mass were applied to analysis of the experimental findings to make possible systematic comparison of previous findings across species and animal size.

  18. Ganglion cysts of the posterior cruciate ligament.

    PubMed

    Shetty, Gautam M; Nha, Kyung Wook; Patil, Sachin P; Chae, Dong Ju; Kang, Ki Hoon; Yoon, Jung Ro; Choo, Suk Kyu; Yi, Jeong Woo; Kim, Ji Hoon; Baek, Jong Ryoon

    2008-08-01

    Ganglion cysts of the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) are uncommon lesions found incidentally on MRI and arthroscopy. Twenty patients (11 males and nine females) with the mean age of 35 years presenting with a variety of knee signs and symptoms were found to have PCL cysts on MRI. Out of these, thirteen patients (65%) had isolated symptomatic PCL cysts and seven patients had associated chondral and meniscal lesions. Eight out of the 20 patients (40%) gave a history of antecedent trauma. On arthroscopy, the majority of the cysts were situated at the midsubstance of the ligament with inter-cruciate distension and no involvement of the substance of the ligament. The content of the cysts varied with the majority having yellowish viscous fluid and three containing serous and bloody fluid. All cysts were successfully treated arthroscopically through standard anterior, posteromedial and posterolateral portals with no signs of recurrence on MRI at a mean followup of 24 months. PCL cysts may clinically mimic meniscal or chondral lesions and preoperatively, MRI is essential for the diagnosis of ganglion cysts arising from the PCL. Ganglion cysts of the PCL can be successfully treated arthroscopically using standard portals.

  19. Mitral Valve Mechanics Following Posterior Leaflet Patch Augmentation

    PubMed Central

    Rahmani, Azadeh; Rasmussen, Ann Q.; Honge, Jesper L.; Ostli, Bjorn; Levine, Robert A.; Hagège, Albert; Nygaard, Hans; Nielsen, Sten L.; Jensen, Morten O.

    2013-01-01

    Background and aim of the study Attention towards the optimization of mitral valve repair methods is increasing. Patch augmentation is one strategy used to treat functional ischemic mitral regurgitation (FIMR). The study aim was to investigate the force balance changes in specific chordae tendineae emanating from the posterior papillary muscle in a FIMR-simulated valve, following posterior leaflet patch augmentation. Methods Mitral valves were obtained from 12 pigs (body weight 80 kg). An in vitro test set-up simulating the left ventricle was used to hold the valves. The left ventricular pressure was regulated with water to simulate different static pressures during valve closure. A standardized oval pericardial patch (17 × 29 mm) was introduced into the posterior leaflet from mid P2 to the end of the P3 scallop. Dedicated miniature transducers were used to record the forces exerted on the chordae tendineae. Data were acquired before and after 12 mm posterior and 5 mm apical posterior papillary muscle displacement to simulate the effect from one of the main contributors of FIMR, before and after patch augmentation. Results The effect of displacing the posterior papillary muscle induced tethering on the intermediate chordae tendineae to the posterior leaflet, and resulted in a 39.8% force increase (p = 0.014). Posterior leaflet patch augmentation of the FIMR valve induced a 31.1% force decrease (p = 0.007). There was no difference in force between the healthy and the repaired valve simulations (p = 0.773). Conclusion Posterior leaflet patch augmentation significantly reduced the forces exerted on the intermediate chordae tendineae from the posterior papillary muscle following FIMR simulation. As changes in chordal tension lead to a redistribution of the total stress exerted on the valve, patch augmentation may have an adverse long-term influence on mitral valve function and remodeling. PMID:23610985

  20. THE BLACK HOLE FORMATION PROBABILITY

    SciTech Connect

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P {sub BH}(M {sub ZAMS}) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  1. The Black Hole Formation Probability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Clausen, Drew; Piro, Anthony L.; Ott, Christian D.

    2015-02-01

    A longstanding question in stellar evolution is which massive stars produce black holes (BHs) rather than neutron stars (NSs) upon death. It has been common practice to assume that a given zero-age main sequence (ZAMS) mass star (and perhaps a given metallicity) simply produces either an NS or a BH, but this fails to account for a myriad of other variables that may effect this outcome, such as spin, binarity, or even stochastic differences in the stellar structure near core collapse. We argue that instead a probabilistic description of NS versus BH formation may be better suited to account for the current uncertainties in understanding how massive stars die. We present an initial exploration of the probability that a star will make a BH as a function of its ZAMS mass, P BH(M ZAMS). Although we find that it is difficult to derive a unique P BH(M ZAMS) using current measurements of both the BH mass distribution and the degree of chemical enrichment by massive stars, we demonstrate how P BH(M ZAMS) changes with these various observational and theoretical uncertainties. We anticipate that future studies of Galactic BHs and theoretical studies of core collapse will refine P BH(M ZAMS) and argue that this framework is an important new step toward better understanding BH formation. A probabilistic description of BH formation will be useful as input for future population synthesis studies that are interested in the formation of X-ray binaries, the nature and event rate of gravitational wave sources, and answering questions about chemical enrichment.

  2. Overfitting, generalization, and MSE in class probability estimation with high-dimensional data.

    PubMed

    Kim, Kyung In; Simon, Richard

    2014-03-01

    Accurate class probability estimation is important for medical decision making but is challenging, particularly when the number of candidate features exceeds the number of cases. Special methods have been developed for nonprobabilistic classification, but relatively little attention has been given to class probability estimation with numerous candidate variables. In this paper, we investigate overfitting in the development of regularized class probability estimators. We investigate the relation between overfitting and accurate class probability estimation in terms of mean square error. Using simulation studies based on real datasets, we found that some degree of overfitting can be desirable for reducing mean square error. We also introduce a mean square error decomposition for class probability estimation that helps clarify the relationship between overfitting and prediction accuracy.

  3. Bayesian Retrieval of Complete Posterior PDFs of Oceanic Rain Rate From Microwave Observations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Chiu, J. Christine; Petty, Grant W.

    2005-01-01

    This paper presents a new Bayesian algorithm for retrieving surface rain rate from Tropical Rainfall Measurements Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) over the ocean, along with validations against estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR). The Bayesian approach offers a rigorous basis for optimally combining multichannel observations with prior knowledge. While other rain rate algorithms have been published that are based at least partly on Bayesian reasoning, this is believed to be the first self-contained algorithm that fully exploits Bayes Theorem to yield not just a single rain rate, but rather a continuous posterior probability distribution of rain rate. To advance our understanding of theoretical benefits of the Bayesian approach, we have conducted sensitivity analyses based on two synthetic datasets for which the true conditional and prior distribution are known. Results demonstrate that even when the prior and conditional likelihoods are specified perfectly, biased retrievals may occur at high rain rates. This bias is not the result of a defect of the Bayesian formalism but rather represents the expected outcome when the physical constraint imposed by the radiometric observations is weak, due to saturation effects. It is also suggested that the choice of the estimators and the prior information are both crucial to the retrieval. In addition, the performance of our Bayesian algorithm is found to be comparable to that of other benchmark algorithms in real-world applications, while having the additional advantage of providing a complete continuous posterior probability distribution of surface rain rate.

  4. Using Playing Cards to Differentiate Probability Interpretations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    López Puga, Jorge

    2014-01-01

    The aprioristic (classical, naïve and symmetric) and frequentist interpretations of probability are commonly known. Bayesian or subjective interpretation of probability is receiving increasing attention. This paper describes an activity to help students differentiate between the three types of probability interpretations.

  5. Teaching Probabilities and Statistics to Preschool Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pange, Jenny

    2003-01-01

    This study considers the teaching of probabilities and statistics to a group of preschool children using traditional classroom activities and Internet games. It was clear from this study that children can show a high level of understanding of probabilities and statistics, and demonstrate high performance in probability games. The use of Internet…

  6. The Cognitive Substrate of Subjective Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nilsson, Hakan; Olsson, Henrik; Juslin, Peter

    2005-01-01

    The prominent cognitive theories of probability judgment were primarily developed to explain cognitive biases rather than to account for the cognitive processes in probability judgment. In this article the authors compare 3 major theories of the processes and representations in probability judgment: the representativeness heuristic, implemented as…

  7. Posterior urethral valves: long-term outcome.

    PubMed

    Caione, Paolo; Nappo, Simona Gerocarni

    2011-10-01

    Posterior urethral valves represent the most common cause of bladder outlet obstruction in infancy that impairs renal and bladder function. Long-term outcome of patients with previous PUV is evaluated. Patients over 18 years of age, treated from 1982 to 1995 before the age of 3 years were considered. Previous surgery, renal function, bladder activity, urinary incontinence, and fertility/sexual activity were evaluated. Clinical interview, creatinine clearance, uroflowmetry with ultrasound post-void urine residue, and self-administered questionnaire were recorded. Out of 45 identified records, 24 patients (53.3%) accepted to be enrolled (age 18-34 years, mean 23 years). The mean follow-up was 19.5 years (16-30 years). Out of the 21 excluded patients, 20 did not reply to the clinical interview and 1 died at age of 6 years. All the 24 patients had early endoscopic section of PUV; nine also received transient ureterocutaneostomy or vesicostomy. Ureteroneocystostomy was performed in five patients and ureterocystoplasty with unilateral nephrectomy in two. At follow-up chronic renal failure was detected in 13 patients (54.1%) and 9 (37.5%) had arterial hypertension. End-stage renal disease developed in five patients (20.8%): three had successful renal transplantation and two were in dialysis. Lower urinary tract symptoms were present in seven patients (29.1%). No significant fertility deficit and sexual dysfunction were observed in 23 patients, while 1 patient was azoospermic. No paternity was reported so far. Long-term outcome of patients with previously treated PUV is mandatory. Kidney, bladder, and sexual functions should be monitored till adulthood to verify any modified behaviour.

  8. The language profile of Posterior Cortical Atrophy

    PubMed Central

    Crutch, Sebastian J.; Lehmann, Manja; Warren, Jason D.; Rohrer, Jonathan D.

    2015-01-01

    Background Posterior Cortical Atrophy (PCA) is typically considered to be a visual syndrome, primarily characterised by progressive impairment of visuoperceptual and visuospatial skills. However patients commonly describe early difficulties with word retrieval. This paper details the first systematic analysis of linguistic function in PCA. Characterising and quantifying the aphasia associated with PCA is important for clarifying diagnostic and selection criteria for clinical and research studies. Methods Fifteen patients with PCA, 7 patients with logopenic/phonological aphasia (LPA) and 18 age-matched healthy participants completed a detailed battery of linguistic tests evaluating auditory input processing, repetition and working memory, lexical and grammatical comprehension, single word retrieval and fluency, and spontaneous speech. Results Relative to healthy controls, PCA patients exhibited language impairments across all the domains examined, but with anomia, reduced phonemic fluency and slowed speech rate the most prominent deficits. PCA performance most closely resembled that of LPA patients on tests of auditory input processing, repetition and digit span, but was relatively stronger on tasks of comprehension and spontaneous speech. Conclusions The study demonstrates that in addition to the well-reported degradation of vision, literacy and numeracy, PCA is characterised by a progressive oral language dysfunction with prominent word retrieval difficulties. Overlap in the linguistic profiles of PCA and LPA, which are both most commonly caused by Alzheimer’s disease, further emphasises the notion of a phenotypic continuum between typical and atypical manifestations of the disease. Clarifying the boundaries between AD phenotypes has important implications for diagnosis, clinical trial recruitment and investigations into biological factors driving phenotypic heterogeneity in AD. Rehabilitation strategies to ameliorate the phonological deficit in PCA are required

  9. Posterior ankle impingement syndrome: A systematic four-stage approach

    PubMed Central

    Yasui, Youichi; Hannon, Charles P; Hurley, Eoghan; Kennedy, John G

    2016-01-01

    Posterior ankle impingement syndrome (PAIS) is a common injury in athletes engaging in repetitive plantarflexion, particularly ballet dancers and soccer players. Despite the increase in popularity of the posterior two-portal hindfoot approach, concerns with the technique remain, including; the technical difficulty, relatively steep learning curve, and difficulty performing simultaneous anterior ankle arthroscopy. The purpose of the current literature review is to provide comprehensive knowledge about PAIS, and to describe a systematic four-stage approach of the posterior two-portal arthroscopy. The etiology, clinical presentation, diagnostic strategies are first introduced followed by options in conservative and surgical management. A detailed systematic approach to posterior hindfoot arthroscopy is then described. This technique allows for systematic review of the anatomic structures and treatment of the bony and/or soft tissue lesions in four regions of interest in the hindfoot (superolateral, superomedial, inferomedial, and inferolateral). The review then discusses biological adjuncts and postoperative rehabilitation and ends with a discussion on the most recent clinical outcomes after posterior hindfoot arthroscopy for PAIS. Although clinical evidence suggests high success rates following posterior hindfoot arthroscopy in the short- and mid-term it may be limited in the pathology that can be addressed due to the technical skills required, but the systematic four-stage approach of the posterior two-portal arthroscopy may improve upon this problem. PMID:27795947

  10. Dissociable contributions of the left and right posterior medial orbitofrontal cortex in motivational control of goal-directed behavior.

    PubMed

    Szatkowska, Iwona; Szymańska, Olga; Marchewka, Artur; Soluch, Paweł; Rymarczyk, Krystyna

    2011-09-01

    Several findings from both human neuroimaging and nonhuman primate studies suggest that the posterior medial orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) may be critical for the motivational control of goal-directed behavior. The present study was conducted to clarify the role of the left and right posterior medial OFC in that function by examining the effects of focal unilateral lesions to this region on the performance on an incentive working memory task. The study covered patients who had undergone surgery for an ACoA aneurysm and normal control subjects (C). The patients were subdivided into three groups: those with resection of the left (LGR+) or right (RGR+) posterior part of the gyrus rectus, and without such a resection (GR-). Participants performed a 2-back working memory task under three motivational conditions (penalty, reward, and no-incentive). The C group performed worse in the penalty condition and better in the reward condition as compared to the no-incentive condition. Similar results were obtained for the GR- group. Performance of the LGR+ group did not depend on incentive manipulations, whereas the RGR+ group performed better in both the penalty and reward conditions than in the no-incentive condition. The results show that the posterior medial OFC is involved in the motivational modulation of working memory performance. Our findings also suggest that the left posterior medial OFC plays a crucial role in this function, whereas the right posterior medial OFC is particularly involved in the processing of the punishing aspect of salient events and it probably mediates in guiding behavior on the basis of negative outcomes of action.

  11. Neural correlates of cognitive impairment in posterior cortical atrophy.

    PubMed

    Kas, Aurélie; de Souza, Leonardo Cruz; Samri, Dalila; Bartolomeo, Paolo; Lacomblez, Lucette; Kalafat, Michel; Migliaccio, Raffaella; Thiebaut de Schotten, Michel; Cohen, Laurent; Dubois, Bruno; Habert, Marie-Odile; Sarazin, Marie

    2011-05-01

    With the prospect of disease-modifying drugs that will target the physiopathological process of Alzheimer's disease, it is now crucial to increase the understanding of the atypical focal presentations of Alzheimer's disease, such as posterior cortical atrophy. This study aimed to (i) characterize the brain perfusion profile in posterior cortical atrophy using regions of interest and a voxel-based approach; (ii) study the influence of the disease duration on the clinical and imaging profiles; and (iii) explore the correlations between brain perfusion and cognitive deficits. Thirty-nine patients with posterior cortical atrophy underwent a specific battery of neuropsychological tests, mainly targeting visuospatial functions, and a brain perfusion scintigraphy with 99mTc-ethyl cysteinate dimer. The imaging analysis included a comparison with a group of 24 patients with Alzheimer's disease, matched for age, disease duration and Mini-Mental State Examination, and 24 healthy controls. The single-photon emission computed tomography profile in patients with posterior cortical atrophy was characterized by extensive and severe hypoperfusion in the occipital, parietal, posterior temporal cortices and in a smaller cortical area corresponding to the frontal eye fields (Brodmann areas 6/8). Compared with patients with Alzheimer's disease, the group with posterior cortical atrophy showed more severe occipitoparietal hypoperfusion and higher perfusion in the frontal, anterior cingulate and mesiotemporal regions. When considering the disease duration, the functional changes began and remained centred on the posterior lobes, even in the late stage. Correlation analyses of brain perfusion and neuropsychological scores in posterior cortical atrophy highlighted the prominent role of left inferior parietal damage in acalculia, Gerstmann's syndrome, left-right indistinction and limb apraxia, whereas damage to the bilateral dorsal occipitoparietal regions appeared to be involved in B

  12. Detection of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Isolates from Tonsils and Posterior Oropharynx

    PubMed Central

    Whiley, D. M.; Lee, D. M.; Snow, A. F.; Fairley, C. K.; Peel, J.; Bradshaw, C. S.; Hocking, J. S.; Lahra, M. M.; Chen, M. Y.

    2015-01-01

    We examined the factors influencing gonorrhea detection at the pharynx. One hundred men infected with Neisseria gonorrhoeae were swabbed from the tonsils and posterior oropharynx. N. gonorrhoeae was reisolated from the tonsils and posterior oropharynx in 62% and 52%, respectively (P = 0.041). Culture positivity was greater with higher gonococcal DNA loads at the tonsils (P = 0.001) and oropharynx (P < 0.001). N. gonorrhoeae can be cultured from the tonsils and posterior oropharynx with greater isolation rates where gonococcal loads are higher. PMID:26292303

  13. Immunopathology of the noninfectious posterior and intermediate uveitides.

    PubMed

    Boyd, S R; Young, S; Lightman, S

    2001-01-01

    The posterior and intermediate uveitides share an underlying immune etiology; however, they can be clinically and immunopathologically distinguished. Although the initiating stimuli for posterior and intermediate uveities are not known, it is believed that an exogenous agent (such as a bacterium or a virus) or an endogenous molecule may induce disease. In either case, T-helper lymphocytes in conjunction with human leukocyte antigens are likely to be involved. This review examines the epidemiology, histology, immunopathology, and theories of pathogenesis of several posterior and intermediate uveitides, including sympathetic ophthalmia, Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada syndrome, Behçet's disease, sarcoidosis, intermediate uveitis, white dot syndromes, and birdshot retinochoroidopathy.

  14. Posterior cortical atrophy: an atypical variant of Alzheimer disease.

    PubMed

    Suárez-González, Aida; Henley, Susie M; Walton, Jill; Crutch, Sebastian J

    2015-06-01

    Posterior cortical atrophy (PCA) is a neurodegenerative syndrome characterized by striking progressive visual impairment and a pattern of atrophy mainly involving posterior cortices. PCA is the most frequent atypical presentation of Alzheimer disease. The purpose of this article is to provide a summary of PCA's neuropsychiatric manifestations. Emotional and psychotic symptoms are discussed in the context of signal characteristic features of the PCA syndrome (the early onset, focal loss of visual perception, focal posterior brain atrophy) and the underlying cause of the disease. The authors' experience with psychotherapeutic intervention and PCA support groups is shared in detail.

  15. Incidence and surgical importance of the posterior gastric artery.

    PubMed Central

    Suzuki, K; Prates, J C; DiDio, L J

    1978-01-01

    In a series of 61 adult cadavers, the posterior gastric artery was found in 38 (62.3%), originating from the superior aspect of the mid-third of the splenic artery. The posterior gastric artery, running behind the parietal peritoneum of the omental bursa, produced a peritoneal fold before reaching the posterior wall of the superior portion of the gastric body, near the cardiac region, and the fundus. Its high incidence, hidden origin, deep course, and distribution make this artery very important for surgical procedures relating to the stomach, pancreas, spleen, and celiac region. It may be crucial, especially if partial gastric resection of splenectomy have obliterated other gastric vessels. PMID:629615

  16. Asystole during posterior fossa surgery: Report of two cases

    PubMed Central

    Goyal, Keshav; Philip, Frenny Ann; Rath, Girija Prasad; Mahajan, Charu; Sujatha, M.; Bharti, Sachidanand Jee; Gupta, Nidhi

    2012-01-01

    Asystole during posterior fossa neurosurgical procedures is not uncommon. Various causes have been implicated, especially when surgical manipulation is carried out in the vicinity of the brain stem. The trigemino-cardiac reflex has been attributed as one of the causes. Here, we report two cases who suffered asystole during the resection of posterior fossa tumors. The vago-glossopharyngeal reflex and the direct stimulation of the brainstem were hypothesized as the causes of asytole. These episodes resolved spontaneously following withdrawal of the surgical stimulus emphasizing the importance of anticipation and vigilance during critical moments of tumor dissection during posterior fossa surgery. PMID:22870159

  17. Ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament: a case report

    PubMed Central

    Aker, PD; O’Connor, SM; Mior, SA; Beauchemin, D

    1989-01-01

    Ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) has recently been recognized as a clinical entity. It is a rare condition, having a higher incidence in the Japanese population. It is characterized by hyperplasia of cartilage cells with eventual endochondral ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament. The radiographic signs are characteristic and consist of a linear band of ossified tissue along the posterior margin of the vertebral body. OPLL can be associated with mild to serious neurological complications due to spinal cord or nerve root compression, or it may be asymptomatic. This paper reviews the radiological, clinical and therapeutic aspects of this rare condition. ImagesFigures 1 and 2Figures 3 and 4

  18. Posterior Wall Blowout in Anterior Cruciate Ligament Reconstruction

    PubMed Central

    Mitchell, Justin J.; Dean, Chase S.; Chahla, Jorge; Menge, Travis J.; Cram, Tyler R.; LaPrade, Robert F.

    2016-01-01

    Violation of the posterior femoral cortex, commonly referred to as posterior wall blowout, can be a devastating intraoperative complication in anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction and lead to loss of graft fixation or early graft failure. If cortical blowout occurs despite careful planning and adherence to proper surgical technique, a thorough knowledge of the anatomy and alternative fixation techniques is imperative to ensure optimal patient outcomes. This article highlights anatomic considerations for femoral tunnel placement in ACL reconstruction and techniques for avoidance and salvage of a posterior wall blowout. PMID:27335885

  19. Modeling the effect of reward amount on probability discounting.

    PubMed

    Myerson, Joel; Green, Leonard; Morris, Joshua

    2011-03-01

    The present study with college students examined the effect of amount on the discounting of probabilistic monetary rewards. A hyperboloid function accurately described the discounting of hypothetical rewards ranging in amount from $20 to $10,000,000. The degree of discounting increased continuously with amount of probabilistic reward. This effect of amount was not due to changes in the rate parameter of the discounting function, but rather was due to increases in the exponent. These results stand in contrast to those observed with the discounting of delayed monetary rewards, in which the degree of discounting decreases with reward amount due to amount-dependent decreases in the rate parameter. Taken together, this pattern of results suggests that delay and probability discounting reflect different underlying mechanisms. That is, the fact that the exponent in the delay discounting function is independent of amount is consistent with a psychophysical scaling interpretation, whereas the finding that the exponent of the probability-discounting function is amount-dependent is inconsistent with such an interpretation. Instead, the present results are consistent with the idea that the probability-discounting function is itself the product of a value function and a weighting function. This idea was first suggested by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), although their prospect theory does not predict amount effects like those observed. The effect of amount on probability discounting was parsimoniously incorporated into our hyperboloid discounting function by assuming that the exponent was proportional to the amount raised to a power. The amount-dependent exponent of the probability-discounting function may be viewed as reflecting the effect of amount on the weighting of the probability with which the reward will be received.

  20. Probabilistic Inference: Task Dependency and Individual Differences of Probability Weighting Revealed by Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling

    PubMed Central

    Boos, Moritz; Seer, Caroline; Lange, Florian; Kopp, Bruno

    2016-01-01

    Cognitive determinants of probabilistic inference were examined using hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques. A classic urn-ball paradigm served as experimental strategy, involving a factorial two (prior probabilities) by two (likelihoods) design. Five computational models of cognitive processes were compared with the observed behavior. Parameter-free Bayesian posterior probabilities and parameter-free base rate neglect provided inadequate models of probabilistic inference. The introduction of distorted subjective probabilities yielded more robust and generalizable results. A general class of (inverted) S-shaped probability weighting functions had been proposed; however, the possibility of large differences in probability distortions not only across experimental conditions, but also across individuals, seems critical for the model's success. It also seems advantageous to consider individual differences in parameters of probability weighting as being sampled from weakly informative prior distributions of individual parameter values. Thus, the results from hierarchical Bayesian modeling converge with previous results in revealing that probability weighting parameters show considerable task dependency and individual differences. Methodologically, this work exemplifies the usefulness of hierarchical Bayesian modeling techniques for cognitive psychology. Theoretically, human probabilistic inference might be best described as the application of individualized strategic policies for Bayesian belief revision. PMID:27303323

  1. Exact probability-density function for phase-measurement interferometry

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ho, Keang-Po; Kahn, Joseph M.

    1995-09-01

    Conventional analyses of the accuracy of phase-measurement interferometry derive a figure of merit that is either a variance or a signal-to-noise ratio. We derive the probability-density function of the phase-measurement output, so that the measurement confidence interval can be determined. We include both laser phase noise and additive Gaussian noise, and we consider both unmodulated interferometers and those employing phase or frequency modulation. For both unmodulated and modulated interferometers the confidence interval can be obtained by numerical integration of the probability-density function. For the modulated interferometer we derive a series summation for the confidence interval. For both unmodulated and modulated interferometers we derive approximate analytical expressions for the confidence interval, which we show to be extremely accurate at high signal-to-noise ratios.

  2. Probability and the changing shape of response distributions for orientation.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Britt

    2014-11-18

    Spatial attention and feature-based attention are regarded as two independent mechanisms for biasing the processing of sensory stimuli. Feature attention is held to be a spatially invariant mechanism that advantages a single feature per sensory dimension. In contrast to the prediction of location independence, I found that participants were able to report the orientation of a briefly presented visual grating better for targets defined by high probability conjunctions of features and locations even when orientations and locations were individually uniform. The advantage for high-probability conjunctions was accompanied by changes in the shape of the response distributions. High-probability conjunctions had error distributions that were not normally distributed but demonstrated increased kurtosis. The increase in kurtosis could be explained as a change in the variances of the component tuning functions that comprise a population mixture. By changing the mixture distribution of orientation-tuned neurons, it is possible to change the shape of the discrimination function. This prompts the suggestion that attention may not "increase" the quality of perceptual processing in an absolute sense but rather prioritizes some stimuli over others. This results in an increased number of highly accurate responses to probable targets and, simultaneously, an increase in the number of very inaccurate responses.

  3. Supervised learning of probability distributions by neural networks

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baum, Eric B.; Wilczek, Frank

    1988-01-01

    Supervised learning algorithms for feedforward neural networks are investigated analytically. The back-propagation algorithm described by Werbos (1974), Parker (1985), and Rumelhart et al. (1986) is generalized by redefining the values of the input and output neurons as probabilities. The synaptic weights are then varied to follow gradients in the logarithm of likelihood rather than in the error. This modification is shown to provide a more rigorous theoretical basis for the algorithm and to permit more accurate predictions. A typical application involving a medical-diagnosis expert system is discussed.

  4. Rhinocerebral mucormycosis with extension to the posterior fossa: case report.

    PubMed

    Soloniuk, D S; Moreland, D B

    1988-11-01

    A 25-year-old man with juvenile onset diabetes presented with rhinoorbital mucormycosis. He was treated aggressively with orbital extirpation and amphotericin B. Six months later, he presented with posterior fossa extension of the mucormycosis.

  5. Modified posterior vertebral column resection for Kümmell disease

    PubMed Central

    Liu, Feng-Yu; Huo, Li-Shuang; Liu, Sen; Wang, Hui; Zhang, Li-Jun; Yang, Da-Long; Ding, Wen-Yuan

    2017-01-01

    Abstract Rationale: Kümmell's disease is defined as delayed traumatic vertebral collapse disease in which patients develop a kyphosis after asymptomatic minor spinal trauma. Both anterior approach and posterior approach have been reported, however, there is no standard treatment for Kümmell's disease. Patient concerns: We described a successful modified posterior vertebral column resection in a patient with Kümmell's disease. A 65-year-old woman reported persistent back pain for almost three months. Diagnoses: Kümmell's disease was diagnosed based on computer tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Interventions: Modified posterior vertebral column resection combined with short-segment fixation was designed to treat this disease. Outcomes: The procedure was successful without any complications. Patient reported that symptoms were obviously improved in one week after operation. Lessons: Modified posterior vertebral column resection combined with short-segment fixation is an effective treatment option for Kümmell's disease. PMID:28151882

  6. Aneurysms of the posterior cerebral artery in children.

    PubMed

    Romero, F J; Tàpies, C; Ibarra, B; Rovira, M

    1988-01-01

    Two cases of aneurysms of the posterior cerebral artery, diagnosed by CT and confirmed angiographically, are reported. In the first case, the aneurysm was discovered fortuitously. The second began with intracerebral haemorrhage. A review of the literature is reported.

  7. Resection of Beak-Type Thoracic Ossification of the Posterior Longitudinal Ligament from a Posterior Approach under Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring for Paralysis after Posterior Decompression and Fusion Surgery.

    PubMed

    Imagama, Shiro; Ando, Kei; Ito, Zenya; Kobayashi, Kazuyoshi; Hida, Tetsuro; Ito, Kenyu; Ishikawa, Yoshimoto; Tsushima, Mikito; Matsumoto, Akiyuki; Tanaka, Satoshi; Morozumi, Masayoshi; Machino, Masaaki; Ota, Kyotaro; Nakashima, Hiroaki; Wakao, Norimitsu; Nishida, Yoshihiro; Matsuyama, Yukihiro; Ishiguro, Naoki

    2016-12-01

    Study Design Prospective clinical study. Objective Posterior decompression and fusion surgery for beak-type thoracic ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (T-OPLL) generally has a favorable outcome. However, some patients require additional surgery for postoperative severe paralysis, a condition that is inadequately discussed in the literature. The objective of this study was to describe the efficacy of a procedure we refer to as "resection at an anterior site of the spinal cord from a posterior approach" (RASPA) for severely paralyzed patients after posterior decompression and fusion surgery for beak-type T-OPLL. Methods Among 58 consecutive patients who underwent posterior decompression and fusion surgery for beak-type T-OPLL since 1999, 3 with postoperative paralysis (5%) underwent RASPA in our institute. Clinical records, the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score, gait status, intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) findings, and complications were evaluated in these cases. Results All three patients experienced a postoperative decline in Manual Muscle Test (MMT) scores of 0 to 2 after the first surgery. RASPA was performed 3 weeks after the first surgery. All patients showed gradual improvements in MMT scores for the lower extremity and in ambulatory status; all could walk with a cane at an average of 4 months following RASPA surgery. There were no postoperative complications. Conclusions RASPA surgery for beak-type T-OPLL after posterior decompression and fusion surgery resulted in good functional outcomes as a salvage surgery for patients with severe paralysis. Advantages of RASPA include a wide working space, no spinal cord retraction, and additional decompression at levels without T-OPLL resection and spinal cord shortening after additional dekyphosis and compression maneuvers. When used with IONM, this procedure may help avoid permanent postoperative paralysis.

  8. Resection of Beak-Type Thoracic Ossification of the Posterior Longitudinal Ligament from a Posterior Approach under Intraoperative Neurophysiological Monitoring for Paralysis after Posterior Decompression and Fusion Surgery

    PubMed Central

    Imagama, Shiro; Ando, Kei; Ito, Zenya; Kobayashi, Kazuyoshi; Hida, Tetsuro; Ito, Kenyu; Ishikawa, Yoshimoto; Tsushima, Mikito; Matsumoto, Akiyuki; Tanaka, Satoshi; Morozumi, Masayoshi; Machino, Masaaki; Ota, Kyotaro; Nakashima, Hiroaki; Wakao, Norimitsu; Nishida, Yoshihiro; Matsuyama, Yukihiro; Ishiguro, Naoki

    2016-01-01

    Study Design Prospective clinical study. Objective Posterior decompression and fusion surgery for beak-type thoracic ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (T-OPLL) generally has a favorable outcome. However, some patients require additional surgery for postoperative severe paralysis, a condition that is inadequately discussed in the literature. The objective of this study was to describe the efficacy of a procedure we refer to as “resection at an anterior site of the spinal cord from a posterior approach” (RASPA) for severely paralyzed patients after posterior decompression and fusion surgery for beak-type T-OPLL. Methods Among 58 consecutive patients who underwent posterior decompression and fusion surgery for beak-type T-OPLL since 1999, 3 with postoperative paralysis (5%) underwent RASPA in our institute. Clinical records, the Japanese Orthopaedic Association score, gait status, intraoperative neurophysiological monitoring (IONM) findings, and complications were evaluated in these cases. Results All three patients experienced a postoperative decline in Manual Muscle Test (MMT) scores of 0 to 2 after the first surgery. RASPA was performed 3 weeks after the first surgery. All patients showed gradual improvements in MMT scores for the lower extremity and in ambulatory status; all could walk with a cane at an average of 4 months following RASPA surgery. There were no postoperative complications. Conclusions RASPA surgery for beak-type T-OPLL after posterior decompression and fusion surgery resulted in good functional outcomes as a salvage surgery for patients with severe paralysis. Advantages of RASPA include a wide working space, no spinal cord retraction, and additional decompression at levels without T-OPLL resection and spinal cord shortening after additional dekyphosis and compression maneuvers. When used with IONM, this procedure may help avoid permanent postoperative paralysis. PMID:27853667

  9. Using Particle Imaging Velocimetry to Measure Anterior-Posterior Velocity Gradients in the Excised Canine Larynx Model

    PubMed Central

    Khosla, Sid; Murugappan, Shanmugam; Lakhamraju, Raghavaraju; Gutmark, Ephraim

    2008-01-01

    Objectives To quantify the anterior-posterior velocity gradient, we studied the velocity flow fields above the vocal folds in both the midcoronal and midsagittal planes. It was also our purpose to use these fields to deduce the mechanisms that cause the anterior-posterior gradient and to determine whether the vortical structures are highly 3-dimensional. Methods Using the particle imaging velocimetry method for 5 excised canine larynges. we obtained phase-averaged velocity fields in the midcoronal and midsagittal planes for 30 phases of phonation. The velocity fields were determined synchronously with the vocal fold motion recorded by high-speed videography. Results The results show that immediately above the folds, there is no significant anterior-posterior velocity gradient. However, as the flow travels downstream, the laryngeal jet tends to narrow in width and skew toward the anterior commissure. Vortices are seen at the anterior and posterior edges of the flow. Conclusions The downstream narrowing in the midsagittal plane is consistent with and is probably due to a phenomenon known as axis switching. Axis switching also involves vortices in the sagittal and coronal planes bending in the axial plane. This results in highly 3-dimensional, complex vortical structures. However, there is remarkable cyclic repeatability of these vortices during a phonation cycle. PMID:18357838

  10. Abnormalities of fixation, saccade and pursuit in posterior cortical atrophy.

    PubMed

    Shakespeare, Timothy J; Kaski, Diego; Yong, Keir X X; Paterson, Ross W; Slattery, Catherine F; Ryan, Natalie S; Schott, Jonathan M; Crutch, Sebastian J

    2015-07-01

    The clinico-neuroradiological syndrome posterior cortical atrophy is the cardinal 'visual dementia' and most common atypical Alzheimer's disease phenotype, offering insights into mechanisms underlying clinical heterogeneity, pathological propagation and basic visual phenomena (e.g. visual crowding). Given the extensive attention paid to patients' (higher order) perceptual function, it is surprising that there have been no systematic analyses of basic oculomotor function in this population. Here 20 patients with posterior cortical atrophy, 17 patients with typical Alzheimer's disease and 22 healthy controls completed tests of fixation, saccade (including fixation/target gap and overlap conditions) and smooth pursuit eye movements using an infrared pupil-tracking system. Participants underwent detailed neuropsychological and neurological examinations, with a proportion also undertaking brain imaging and analysis of molecular pathology. In contrast to informal clinical evaluations of oculomotor dysfunction frequency (previous studies: 38%, current clinical examination: 33%), detailed eyetracking investigations revealed eye movement abnormalities in 80% of patients with posterior cortical atrophy (compared to 17% typical Alzheimer's disease, 5% controls). The greatest differences between posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer's disease were seen in saccadic performance. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy made significantly shorter saccades especially for distant targets. They also exhibited a significant exacerbation of the normal gap/overlap effect, consistent with 'sticky fixation'. Time to reach saccadic targets was significantly associated with parietal and occipital cortical thickness measures. On fixation stability tasks, patients with typical Alzheimer's disease showed more square wave jerks whose frequency was associated with lower cerebellar grey matter volume, while patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed large saccadic intrusions

  11. Abnormalities of fixation, saccade and pursuit in posterior cortical atrophy

    PubMed Central

    Kaski, Diego; Yong, Keir X. X.; Paterson, Ross W.; Slattery, Catherine F.; Ryan, Natalie S.; Schott, Jonathan M.; Crutch, Sebastian J.

    2015-01-01

    The clinico-neuroradiological syndrome posterior cortical atrophy is the cardinal ‘visual dementia’ and most common atypical Alzheimer’s disease phenotype, offering insights into mechanisms underlying clinical heterogeneity, pathological propagation and basic visual phenomena (e.g. visual crowding). Given the extensive attention paid to patients’ (higher order) perceptual function, it is surprising that there have been no systematic analyses of basic oculomotor function in this population. Here 20 patients with posterior cortical atrophy, 17 patients with typical Alzheimer’s disease and 22 healthy controls completed tests of fixation, saccade (including fixation/target gap and overlap conditions) and smooth pursuit eye movements using an infrared pupil-tracking system. Participants underwent detailed neuropsychological and neurological examinations, with a proportion also undertaking brain imaging and analysis of molecular pathology. In contrast to informal clinical evaluations of oculomotor dysfunction frequency (previous studies: 38%, current clinical examination: 33%), detailed eyetracking investigations revealed eye movement abnormalities in 80% of patients with posterior cortical atrophy (compared to 17% typical Alzheimer’s disease, 5% controls). The greatest differences between posterior cortical atrophy and typical Alzheimer’s disease were seen in saccadic performance. Patients with posterior cortical atrophy made significantly shorter saccades especially for distant targets. They also exhibited a significant exacerbation of the normal gap/overlap effect, consistent with ‘sticky fixation’. Time to reach saccadic targets was significantly associated with parietal and occipital cortical thickness measures. On fixation stability tasks, patients with typical Alzheimer’s disease showed more square wave jerks whose frequency was associated with lower cerebellar grey matter volume, while patients with posterior cortical atrophy showed large

  12. The influence of posterior occlusion when restoring anterior teeth.

    PubMed

    Reshad, Mamaly; Jivraj, Sajid

    2008-08-01

    When any type of esthetic restorative procedure is being considered or performed, a comprehensive diagnosis and treatment plan is required. Attention to the diagnostic signs of the loss of posterior support (LPS) and their influence on the anterior dentition will guarantee a more predictable outcome. Historical solutions and their inadequacies are addressed. Patient presentations are utilized to demonstrate contemporary treatment of patients requiring esthetic rehabilitations who are lacking posterior support.

  13. Parascapular mass revealing primary tuberculosis of the posterior arch

    PubMed Central

    Arbault, Anais; Ornetti, Paul; Chevallier, Olivier; Avril, Julien; Pottecher, Pierre

    2016-01-01

    We report the case of a parascapular abscess revealing primary tuberculosis of the posterior arch in a 31-year-old man. Sectional imaging is essential in order to detect the different lesions of this atypical spinal tuberculosis as osteolysis of the posterior arch extendible to vertebral body, osteocondensation, epidural extension which is common in this location, and high specificity of a zygapophysial, costo-vertebral or transverse arthritis. PMID:27709081

  14. [Tuberculosis of the posterior vertebral arch. A case report].

    PubMed

    Nassar, I; Mahi, M; Semlali, S; Kacemi, L; El Quessar, A; Chakir, N; El Hassani, M R; Jiddane, M

    2002-09-01

    Tuberculosis of the spine usually involves the vertebral body and intervertebral disk. Involvement of the posterior arch is rare. We report a case of tuberculosis involving the posterior elements of the T4 and T5 vertebrae in a 38 year old woman. CT is helpful to assess bony structures whereas MRI is ideal to evaluate the neural structures. Clinical, radiographic, and therapeutic considerations regarding tuberculosis of the spine are reviewed.

  15. Brainstem variant of posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome: A case report

    PubMed Central

    Caranci, Ferdinando; Belfiore, Maria Paola; Manzi, Francesca; Pagliano, Pasquale; Cirillo, Sossio

    2015-01-01

    Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a clinico-radiological condition, generally observed in conjunction with severe and acute hypertension, that involves mainly the posterior head areas (occipital and temporal lobes) and anterior “watershed” areas. In this syndrome it is rare to observe a predominant involvement of the brainstem. We describe the clinical and radiological findings in a patient with brainstem involvement, discussing its pathophysiological features and possible differential diagnosis. PMID:26515750

  16. Brainstem variant of posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome: A case report.

    PubMed

    Tortora, Fabio; Caranci, Ferdinando; Belfiore, Maria Paola; Manzi, Francesca; Pagliano, Pasquale; Cirillo, Sossio

    2015-12-01

    Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a clinico-radiological condition, generally observed in conjunction with severe and acute hypertension, that involves mainly the posterior head areas (occipital and temporal lobes) and anterior "watershed" areas. In this syndrome it is rare to observe a predominant involvement of the brainstem. We describe the clinical and radiological findings in a patient with brainstem involvement, discussing its pathophysiological features and possible differential diagnosis.

  17. Posterior polymorphous dystrophy and keratoglobus in a child.

    PubMed

    Patel, Sangita P; Sajnani, Manoj M; Pineda, Roberto

    2011-01-01

    A 13-year-old boy presented with gradually progressive deterioration of vision in both eyes, bilateral photophobia, and regular headaches. Clinical examination, anterior segment findings, and specular microscopy findings were consistent with the diagnosis of posterior polymorphous dystrophy and keratoglobus. To the authors' knowledge, this is the first pediatric case and the second case overall of the simultaneous occurrence of posterior polymorphous dystrophy and keratoglobus.

  18. Increase of posterior connectivity in aging within the Ventral Attention Network: A functional connectivity analysis using independent component analysis.

    PubMed

    Deslauriers, Johnathan; Ansado, Jennyfer; Marrelec, Guillaume; Provost, Jean-Sébastien; Joanette, Yves

    2017-02-15

    Multiple studies have found neurofunctional changes in normal aging in a context of selective attention. Furthermore, many articles report intrahemispheric alteration in functional networks. However, little is known about age-related changes within the Ventral Attention Network (VAN), which underlies selective attention. The aim of this study is to examine age-related changes within the VAN, focusing on connectivity between its regions. Here we report our findings on the analysis of 27 participants' (13 younger and 14 older healthy adults) BOLD signals as well as their performance on a letter-matching task. We identified the VAN independently for both groups using spatial independent component analysis. Three main findings emerged: First, younger adults were faster and more accurate on the task. Second, older adults had greater connectivity among posterior regions (right temporoparietal junction, right superior parietal lobule, right middle temporal gyrus and left cerebellum crus I) than younger adults but lower connectivity among anterior regions (right anterior insula, right medial superior frontal gyrus and right middle frontal gyrus). Older adults also had more connectivity between anterior and posterior regions than younger adults. Finally, correlations between connectivity and response time on the task showed a trend toward connectivity in posterior regions for the older group and in anterior regions for the younger group. Thus, this study shows that intrahemispheric neurofunctional changes in aging also affect the VAN. The results suggest that, in contexts of selective attention, posterior regions increased in importance for older adults, while anterior regions had reduced centrality.

  19. Optimizing tooth form with direct posterior composite restorations

    PubMed Central

    Raghu, Ramya; Srinivasan, Raghu

    2011-01-01

    Advances in material sciences and technology have provided today's clinicians the strategies to transform the mechanistic approach of operative dentistry into a biologic philosophy. In the last three decades, composite resins have gone from being just an esthetically pleasing way of restoring Class III and Class IV cavities to become the universal material for both anterior and posterior situations as they closely mimic the natural esthetics while restoring the form of the human dentition. In order to enhance their success, clinicians have to rethink their protocol instead of applying the same restorative concepts and principles practiced with metallic restorations. Paralleling the evolution of posterior composite resin materials, cavity designs, restorative techniques and armamentarium have also developed rapidly to successfully employ composite resins in Class II situations. Most of the earlier problems with posterior composites such as poor wear resistance, polymerization shrinkage, postoperative sensitivity, predictable bonding to dentin, etc., have been overcome to a major extent. However, the clinically relevant aspect of achieving tight contacts in Class II situations has challenged clinicians the most. This paper reviews the evolution of techniques and recent developments in achieving predictable contacts with posterior composites. A Medline search was performed for articles on “direct posterior composite contacts.” The keywords used were “contacts and contours of posterior composites.” The reference list of each article was manually checked for additional articles of relevance. PMID:22144797

  20. Is there something special with probabilities?--insight vs. computational ability in multiple risk combination.

    PubMed

    Juslin, Peter; Lindskog, Marcus; Mayerhofer, Bastian

    2015-03-01

    While a wealth of evidence suggests that humans tend to rely on additive cue combination to make controlled judgments, many of the normative rules for probability combination require multiplicative combination. In this article, the authors combine the experimental paradigms on probability reasoning and multiple-cue judgment to allow a comparison between formally identical tasks that involve probability vs. other task contents. The purpose was to investigate if people have cognitive algorithms for the combination, specifically, of probability, affording multiplicative combination in the context of probability. Three experiments suggest that, although people show some signs of a qualitative understanding of the combination rules that are specific to probability, in all but the simplest cases they lack the cognitive algorithms needed for multiplication, but instead use a variety of additive heuristics to approximate the normative combination. Although these heuristics are surprisingly accurate, normative combination is not consistently achieved until the problems are framed in an additive way.

  1. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) probability wheel

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant", about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  2. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) Probability Wheel.

    PubMed

    Huang, Sheng-Cheng; Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K

    2016-01-01

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an "investigator" and a "participant," about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences.

  3. Derivation of quantum probability from measurement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Herbut, Fedor

    2016-05-01

    To begin with, it is pointed out that the form of the quantum probability formula originates in the very initial state of the object system as seen when the state is expanded with the eigenprojectors of the measured observable. Making use of the probability reproducibility condition, which is a key concept in unitary measurement theory, one obtains the relevant coherent distribution of the complete-measurement results in the final unitary-measurement state in agreement with the mentioned probability formula. Treating the transition from the final unitary, or premeasurement, state, where all possible results are present, to one complete-measurement result sketchily in the usual way, the well-known probability formula is derived. In conclusion it is pointed out that the entire argument is only formal unless one makes it physical assuming that the quantum probability law is valid in the extreme case of probability-one (certain) events (projectors).

  4. Error probability performance of unbalanced QPSK receivers

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simon, M. K.

    1978-01-01

    A simple technique for calculating the error probability performance and associated noisy reference loss of practical unbalanced QPSK receivers is presented. The approach is based on expanding the error probability conditioned on the loop phase error in a power series in the loop phase error and then, keeping only the first few terms of this series, averaging this conditional error probability over the probability density function of the loop phase error. Doing so results in an expression for the average error probability which is in the form of a leading term representing the ideal (perfect synchronization references) performance plus a term proportional to the mean-squared crosstalk. Thus, the additional error probability due to noisy synchronization references occurs as an additive term proportional to the mean-squared phase jitter directly associated with the receiver's tracking loop. Similar arguments are advanced to give closed-form results for the noisy reference loss itself.

  5. UT Biomedical Informatics Lab (BMIL) Probability Wheel

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Sara; Wang, Allen; Cantor, Scott B.; Sun, Clement; Fan, Kaili; Reece, Gregory P.; Kim, Min Soon; Markey, Mia K.

    2016-01-01

    A probability wheel app is intended to facilitate communication between two people, an “investigator” and a “participant,” about uncertainties inherent in decision-making. Traditionally, a probability wheel is a mechanical prop with two colored slices. A user adjusts the sizes of the slices to indicate the relative value of the probabilities assigned to them. A probability wheel can improve the adjustment process and attenuate the effect of anchoring bias when it is used to estimate or communicate probabilities of outcomes. The goal of this work was to develop a mobile application of the probability wheel that is portable, easily available, and more versatile. We provide a motivating example from medical decision-making, but the tool is widely applicable for researchers in the decision sciences. PMID:28105462

  6. Probability and Quantum Paradigms: the Interplay

    SciTech Connect

    Kracklauer, A. F.

    2007-12-03

    Since the introduction of Born's interpretation of quantum wave functions as yielding the probability density of presence, Quantum Theory and Probability have lived in a troubled symbiosis. Problems arise with this interpretation because quantum probabilities exhibit features alien to usual probabilities, namely non Boolean structure and non positive-definite phase space probability densities. This has inspired research into both elaborate formulations of Probability Theory and alternate interpretations for wave functions. Herein the latter tactic is taken and a suggested variant interpretation of wave functions based on photo detection physics proposed, and some empirical consequences are considered. Although incomplete in a few details, this variant is appealing in its reliance on well tested concepts and technology.

  7. Location probability learning requires focal attention.

    PubMed

    Kabata, Takashi; Yokoyama, Takemasa; Noguchi, Yasuki; Kita, Shinichi

    2014-01-01

    Target identification is related to the frequency with which targets appear at a given location, with greater frequency enhancing identification. This phenomenon suggests that location probability learned through repeated experience with the target modulates cognitive processing. However, it remains unclear whether attentive processing of the target is required to learn location probability. Here, we used a dual-task paradigm to test the location probability effect of attended and unattended stimuli. Observers performed an attentionally demanding central-letter task and a peripheral-bar discrimination task in which location probability was manipulated. Thus, we were able to compare performance on the peripheral task when attention was fully engaged to the target (single-task condition) versus when attentional resources were drawn away by the central task (dual-task condition). The location probability effect occurred only in the single-task condition, when attention resources were fully available. This suggests that location probability learning requires attention to the target stimuli.

  8. Experience matters: information acquisition optimizes probability gain.

    PubMed

    Nelson, Jonathan D; McKenzie, Craig R M; Cottrell, Garrison W; Sejnowski, Terrence J

    2010-07-01

    Deciding which piece of information to acquire or attend to is fundamental to perception, categorization, medical diagnosis, and scientific inference. Four statistical theories of the value of information-information gain, Kullback-Liebler distance, probability gain (error minimization), and impact-are equally consistent with extant data on human information acquisition. Three experiments, designed via computer optimization to be maximally informative, tested which of these theories best describes human information search. Experiment 1, which used natural sampling and experience-based learning to convey environmental probabilities, found that probability gain explained subjects' information search better than the other statistical theories or the probability-of-certainty heuristic. Experiments 1 and 2 found that subjects behaved differently when the standard method of verbally presented summary statistics (rather than experience-based learning) was used to convey environmental probabilities. Experiment 3 found that subjects' preference for probability gain is robust, suggesting that the other models contribute little to subjects' search behavior.

  9. Total variation denoising of probability measures using iterated function systems with probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    La Torre, Davide; Mendivil, Franklin; Vrscay, Edward R.

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we present a total variation denoising problem for probability measures using the set of fixed point probability measures of iterated function systems with probabilities IFSP. By means of the Collage Theorem for contraction mappings, we provide an upper bound for this problem that can be solved by determining a set of probabilities.

  10. One step arthroscopically assisted Latarjet and posterior bone-block, for recurrent posterior instability and anterior traumatic dislocation

    PubMed Central

    D’Ambrosi, Riccardo; Perfetti, Carlo; Garavaglia, Guido; Taverna, Ettore

    2015-01-01

    This case presents the challenges of the surgical management for a patient with a history of recurrent posterior shoulder instability and subsequently traumatic anterior dislocation. The patient was already on the waiting list for an arthroscopic posterior stabilization with anchors, when a car accident caused an additional anterior shoulder dislocation. This traumatic anterior dislocation created a bone loss with a glenoid fracture and aggravated the preexisting posterior instability. In order to address both problems, we decided to perform an arthroscopically assisted Latarjet procedure for anterior instability and to stabilize with a bone graft for posterior instability. To our best knowledge, this type of surgical procedure has so far never been reported in the literature. The purpose of this report is to present the surgical technique and to outline the decision making process. PMID:26288539

  11. SU-E-T-144: Bayesian Inference of Local Relapse Data Using a Poisson-Based Tumour Control Probability Model

    SciTech Connect

    La Russa, D

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: The purpose of this project is to develop a robust method of parameter estimation for a Poisson-based TCP model using Bayesian inference. Methods: Bayesian inference was performed using the PyMC3 probabilistic programming framework written in Python. A Poisson-based TCP regression model that accounts for clonogen proliferation was fit to observed rates of local relapse as a function of equivalent dose in 2 Gy fractions for a population of 623 stage-I non-small-cell lung cancer patients. The Slice Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithm was used to sample the posterior distributions, and was initiated using the maximum of the posterior distributions found by optimization. The calculation of TCP with each sample step required integration over the free parameter α, which was performed using an adaptive 24-point Gauss-Legendre quadrature. Convergence was verified via inspection of the trace plot and posterior distribution for each of the fit parameters, as well as with comparisons of the most probable parameter values with their respective maximum likelihood estimates. Results: Posterior distributions for α, the standard deviation of α (σ), the average tumour cell-doubling time (Td), and the repopulation delay time (Tk), were generated assuming α/β = 10 Gy, and a fixed clonogen density of 10{sup 7} cm−{sup 3}. Posterior predictive plots generated from samples from these posterior distributions are in excellent agreement with the observed rates of local relapse used in the Bayesian inference. The most probable values of the model parameters also agree well with maximum likelihood estimates. Conclusion: A robust method of performing Bayesian inference of TCP data using a complex TCP model has been established.

  12. Mill profiler machines soft materials accurately

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Rauschl, J. A.

    1966-01-01

    Mill profiler machines bevels, slots, and grooves in soft materials, such as styrofoam phenolic-filled cores, to any desired thickness. A single operator can accurately control cutting depths in contour or straight line work.

  13. Fine structure of bat deep posterior lingual glands (von Ebner's)

    PubMed

    Azzali, G; Gatti, R; Bucci, G; Orlandini, G

    1989-10-01

    We studied the morphology and ultrastructure of the bat (Pipistrellus k.k. and Rhinolophus f.e.) deep posterior lingual glands (Ebner's glands) during hibernation, summer and after stimulation with pilocarpine. Ebner's glands are formed by serous tubulo-alveolar adenomeres and by an excretory system organized in intercalated ducts, long excretory ducts and a main excretory duct. The latter opens in the vallum which surrounds the circumvallate papillae and in the groove of the foliate papillae. The secretory cells, which lack basal folds, show abundant and dense granules (PAS+, Alcian blue -), microvilli (scarce during hibernation), a Golgi apparatus (well developed during summer and after stimulation with pilocarpine), a large nucleus and RER cisternae stacked at the basal pole. Centrioles, lipid droplets, heterogeneous bodies (in content and density, probably lipofuscin bodies), lysosomal multivesicular bodies and large, dense granules with a microcrystalline structure were also encountered. The lateral membranes of adjacent cells are joined by desmosomes; their interdigitations are neither numerous nor prominent during summer. Microfilaments, often gathered in small bundles, lie in the lateral, peripheral cytoplasm without any relation with desmosomes. In summer and particularly after stimulation with pilocarpine, the apical pole of the secretory cells is characterized by many long microvilli, pedunculated hyaloplasmic protrusions and secretory granules. During hibernation the lumen is filled with secretory material. Myoepithelial cells are arranged among secretory cells or between them and the basal lamina. The short intercalated ducts show similarities with the analogous ducts of the parotid gland. Striated ducts are absent. Excretory ducts are endowed with: a) an inner layer of cuboidal cells characterized by poorly developed cytoplasmic organelles, rare dense granules and a few small microvilli; b) an outer layer of basal cells lying on the basal lamina

  14. [Postoperative opacification of posterior chamber intraocular lenses - a review].

    PubMed

    Schmidbauer, J M; Werner, L; Apple, D J; Pandey, S K; Izak, A M; Trivedi, R H; Macky, T A; Auffarth, G U; Peng, Q; Arthur, S N; Escobar-Gomez, M; Ma, L; Vargas, L G

    2001-09-01

    Postoperative opacification of intraocular lenses (IOLs) is a very unpleasant complication for the ophthalmic surgeon and the patient. We report on our experiences with opacification of different foldable IOL designs and rigid poly (methyl methacrylate) (PMMA) posterior chamber lenses.1. Snowflake degeneration of PMMA IOLs: This condition is an unanticipated and surprising late postoperative finding 8 to 15 years after implantation. In our opinion, this complication is probably not related to the PMMA biomaterial itself, but rather it appears to represent a manufacturing problem that has affected a selected, albeit large number of lenses manufactured in the 1980s-mid 1990s.2. Degeneration of UV absorber material and calcium deposits within the optic of hydrophilic IOLs: Two years postoperatively degenerations of UV absorber material and calcium deposits within the optic of single piece hydrophilic acrylic lenses SC60B-OUV manufactured by MDR (Medical developmental research Inc. Clearwater FL, USA) can occur. Although the precise mechanism is not fully known, it was assumed that these opacifications are due to premature aging of the UV blocking agent incorporated in the lens biomaterial and calcification.3. Calcification on the surface of the Bausch & Lomb Hydroviewtrade mark IOLs: Twelve to 15 months postoperatively granular surface calcifications in Hydroviewtrade mark IOLs occured. The mechanism is not fully understood. According to Bausch and Lomb studies, part of the components of the packaging contained silicone, which may have come off the packaging onto the lens optic, where it then appears to be a catalyst for calcium precipitation. The manufacturer has correlated a change in packaging with the appearance of the opacification. The manufacturer now believes that this problem has been solved. However, final verification will require a careful 1 - 2 years clinical study.4. Glistenings in the hydrophobic acrylic AcrySoftrade mark IOLs: The time frame of

  15. Preserving Posterior Complex Can Prevent Adjacent Segment Disease following Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion Surgeries: A Finite Element Analysis

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Yun-Peng; Du, Cheng-Fei; Cheng, Cheng-Kung; Zhong, Zheng-Cheng; Chen, Xuan-Wei; Wu, Gui; Li, Zhe-Cheng; Ye, Jin-Duo; Lin, Jian-Hua; Wang, Li Zhen

    2016-01-01

    Objective To investigate the biomechanical effects of the lumbar posterior complex on the adjacent segments after posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) surgeries. Methods A finite element model of the L1–S1 segment was modified to simulate PLIF with total laminectomy (PLIF-LAM) and PLIF with hemilaminectomy (PLIF-HEMI) procedures. The models were subjected to a 400N follower load with a 7.5-N.m moment of flexion, extension, torsion, and lateral bending. The range of motion (ROM), intradiscal pressure (IDP), and ligament force were compared. Results In Flexion, the ROM, IDP and ligament force of posterior longitudinal ligament, intertransverse ligament, and capsular ligament remarkably increased at the proximal adjacent segment in the PLIF-LAM model, and slightly increased in the PLIF-HEMI model. There was almost no difference for the ROM, IDP and ligament force at L5-S1 level between the two PLIF models although the ligament forces of ligamenta flava remarkably increased compared with the intact lumbar spine (INT) model. For the other loading conditions, these two models almost showed no difference in ROM, IDP and ligament force on the adjacent discs. Conclusions Preserved posterior complex acts as the posterior tension band during PLIF surgery and results in less ROM, IDP and ligament forces on the proximal adjacent segment in flexion. Preserving the posterior complex during decompression can be effective on preventing adjacent segment degeneration (ASD) following PLIF surgeries. PMID:27870867

  16. Posterolateral versus posterior interbody fusion in isthmic spondylolisthesis.

    PubMed

    Farrokhi, Majid Reza; Rahmanian, Abdolkarim; Masoudi, Mohammad Sadegh

    2012-05-20

    Spondylolisthesis is a heterogeneous disorder characterized by subluxation of a vertebral body over another in the sagittal plane. Its most common form is isthmic spondylolisthesis (IS). This study aims to compare clinical outcomes of posterolateral fusion (PLF) with posterior lumbar interbody fusion (PLIF) with posterior instrumentation in the treatment of IS. We performed a randomized prospective study in which 80 patients out of a total of 85 patients with IS were randomly allocated to one of two groups: PLF with posterior instrumentation (group I) or PLIF with posterior instrumentation (group II). Posterior decompression was performed in the patients. The Oswestry low back pain disability (OLBP) scale and Visual Analogue Scale (VAS) were used to evaluate the quality of life (QoL) and pain, respectively. Fisher's exact test was used to evaluate fusion rate and the Mann-Whitney U test was used to compare categorical data. Fusion in group II was significantly better than in group I (p=0.012). Improvement in low back pain was statistically more significant in group I (p=0.001). The incidence of neurogenic claudication was significantly lower in group I than in group II (p=0.004). In group I, there was no significant correlation between slip Meyerding grade and disc space height, radicular pain, and low back pain. There was no significant difference in post-operative complications at 1-year follow-up. Our data showed that PLF with posterior instrumentation provides better clinical outcomes and more improvement in low back pain compared to PLIF with posterior instrumentation despite the low fusion rate.

  17. Interoceptive awareness changes the posterior insula functional connectivity profile.

    PubMed

    Kuehn, Esther; Mueller, Karsten; Lohmann, Gabriele; Schuetz-Bosbach, Simone

    2016-04-01

    Interoceptive awareness describes the ability to consciously perceive inner bodily signals, such as one's own heartbeat. The right anterior insula is assumed to mediate this ability. The role of the posterior insula, particularly posterior-to-anterior insula signal flows is less clear in this respect. We scanned 27 healthy people with either high or low interoceptive awareness using 3T fMRI, while they either monitored their own heartbeats, or external tones, respectively. We used a combination of network centrality and bivariate connectivity analyses to characterize changes in cortical signal flows between the posterior insula and the anterior insula during interoceptive awareness or exteroceptive awareness, respectively. We show that heartbeat monitoring was accompanied by reduced network centrality of the right posterior insula, and decreased functional connectivity strengths between the right posterior insula and the right mid and anterior insula. In addition, decreased signal flows between the right posterior insula and the bilateral anterior cingulate cortices, and the bilateral orbitofrontal cortices were observed during interoceptive awareness. Functional connectivity changes were only shown by people with high interoceptive awareness, and occurred specifically within the low-frequency range (i.e., <0.1 Hz). Both groups did not differ in their functional connectivity profiles during rest. Our results show for the first time that interoceptive awareness changes intra-insula signal flows in the low-frequency range. We speculate that the selective inhibition of slow signal progression along the posterior-to-anterior insula pathway during interoceptive awareness allows the salient and noiseless detection of one's own heartbeat.

  18. Posterior scissors-bite: masticatory jaw movement and muscle activity.

    PubMed

    Tomonari, H; Kubota, T; Yagi, T; Kuninori, T; Kitashima, F; Uehara, S; Miyawaki, S

    2014-04-01

    Scissors-bite is a malocclusion characterised by buccal inclination or buccoversion of the maxillary posterior tooth and/or linguoclination or linguoversion of the mandibular posterior tooth. This type of malocclusion causes reduced contact of the occlusal surfaces and can cause excessive vertical overlapping of the posterior teeth. This case-control study is the first to evaluate both masticatory jaw movement and masseter and temporalis muscle activity in patients with unilateral posterior scissors-bite. Jaw movement variables and surface electromyography data were recorded in 30 adult patients with unilateral posterior scissors-bite malocclusion and 18 subjects with normal occlusion in a case-control study. The chewing pattern on the scissors-bite side significantly differed from that of the non-scissors-bite side in the patients and of the right side in the normal subjects. These differences included a narrower chewing pattern (closing angle, P < 0.01; cycle width, P < 0.01), a longer closing duration (P < 0.05), a slower closing velocity (P < 0.01) and lower activities of both the temporalis (P < 0.05) and the masseter (P < 0.05) muscles on the working side. In 96% of the patients with unilateral posterior scissors-bite, the preferred chewing side was the non-scissors-bite side (P = 0.005). These findings suggest that scissors-bite malocclusion is associated with the masticatory chewing pattern and muscle activity, involving the choice of the preferred chewing side in patients with unilateral posterior scissors-bite.

  19. Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, M.

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  20. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2012-10-01 2012-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Grants by Random Selection Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a)...

  1. Correlation as Probability of Common Descent.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falk, Ruma; Well, Arnold D.

    1996-01-01

    One interpretation of the Pearson product-moment correlation ("r"), correlation as the probability of originating from common descent, important to the genetic measurement of inbreeding, is examined. The conditions under which "r" can be interpreted as the probability of "identity by descent" are specified, and the…

  2. Probability: A Matter of Life and Death

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hassani, Mehdi; Kippen, Rebecca; Mills, Terence

    2016-01-01

    Life tables are mathematical tables that document probabilities of dying and life expectancies at different ages in a society. Thus, the life table contains some essential features of the health of a population. Probability is often regarded as a difficult branch of mathematics. Life tables provide an interesting approach to introducing concepts…

  3. Phonotactic Probabilities in Young Children's Speech Production

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zamuner, Tania S.; Gerken, Louann; Hammond, Michael

    2004-01-01

    This research explores the role of phonotactic probability in two-year-olds' production of coda consonants. Twenty-nine children were asked to repeat CVC non-words that were used as labels for pictures of imaginary animals. The CVC non-words were controlled for their phonotactic probabilities, neighbourhood densities, word-likelihood ratings, and…

  4. 47 CFR 1.1623 - Probability calculation.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 47 Telecommunication 1 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Probability calculation. 1.1623 Section 1.1623 Telecommunication FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION GENERAL PRACTICE AND PROCEDURE Random Selection Procedures for Mass Media Services General Procedures § 1.1623 Probability calculation. (a) All calculations shall be computed to no less than...

  5. Teaching Statistics and Probability: 1981 Yearbook.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shulte, Albert P., Ed.; Smart, James R., Ed.

    This 1981 yearbook of the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics (NCTM) offers classroom ideas for teaching statistics and probability, viewed as important topics in the school mathematics curriculum. Statistics and probability are seen as appropriate because they: (1) provide meaningful applications of mathematics at all levels; (2) provide…

  6. Teaching Probability: A Socio-Constructivist Perspective

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sharma, Sashi

    2015-01-01

    There is a considerable and rich literature on students' misconceptions in probability. However, less attention has been paid to the development of students' probabilistic thinking in the classroom. This paper offers a sequence, grounded in socio-constructivist perspective for teaching probability.

  7. Stimulus Probability Effects in Absolute Identification

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kent, Christopher; Lamberts, Koen

    2016-01-01

    This study investigated the effect of stimulus presentation probability on accuracy and response times in an absolute identification task. Three schedules of presentation were used to investigate the interaction between presentation probability and stimulus position within the set. Data from individual participants indicated strong effects of…

  8. WPE: A Mathematical Microworld for Learning Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kiew, Su Ding; Sam, Hong Kian

    2006-01-01

    In this study, the researchers developed the Web-based Probability Explorer (WPE), a mathematical microworld and investigated the effectiveness of the microworld's constructivist learning environment in enhancing the learning of probability and improving students' attitudes toward mathematics. This study also determined the students' satisfaction…

  9. Malawian Students' Meanings for Probability Vocabulary

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kazima, Mercy

    2007-01-01

    The paper discusses findings of a study that investigated Malawian students' meanings for some probability vocabulary. The study explores the meanings that, prior to instruction, students assign to some words that are commonly used in teaching probability. The aim is to have some insight into the meanings that students bring to the classroom. The…

  10. Probability Simulations by Non-Lipschitz Chaos

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Zak, Michail

    1996-01-01

    It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-Lipschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices. Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.

  11. Laboratory-Tutorial Activities for Teaching Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wittmann, Michael C.; Morgan, Jeffrey T.; Feeley, Roger E.

    2006-01-01

    We report on the development of students' ideas of probability and probability density in a University of Maine laboratory-based general education physics course called "Intuitive Quantum Physics". Students in the course are generally math phobic with unfavorable expectations about the nature of physics and their ability to do it. We…

  12. Probability Issues in without Replacement Sampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Joarder, A. H.; Al-Sabah, W. S.

    2007-01-01

    Sampling without replacement is an important aspect in teaching conditional probabilities in elementary statistics courses. Different methods proposed in different texts for calculating probabilities of events in this context are reviewed and their relative merits and limitations in applications are pinpointed. An alternative representation of…

  13. Average Transmission Probability of a Random Stack

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lu, Yin; Miniatura, Christian; Englert, Berthold-Georg

    2010-01-01

    The transmission through a stack of identical slabs that are separated by gaps with random widths is usually treated by calculating the average of the logarithm of the transmission probability. We show how to calculate the average of the transmission probability itself with the aid of a recurrence relation and derive analytical upper and lower…

  14. Assessment of the probability of contaminating Mars

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Judd, B. R.; North, D. W.; Pezier, J. P.

    1974-01-01

    New methodology is proposed to assess the probability that the planet Mars will by biologically contaminated by terrestrial microorganisms aboard a spacecraft. Present NASA methods are based on the Sagan-Coleman formula, which states that the probability of contamination is the product of the expected microbial release and a probability of growth. The proposed new methodology extends the Sagan-Coleman approach to permit utilization of detailed information on microbial characteristics, the lethality of release and transport mechanisms, and of other information about the Martian environment. Three different types of microbial release are distinguished in the model for assessing the probability of contamination. The number of viable microbes released by each mechanism depends on the bio-burden in various locations on the spacecraft and on whether the spacecraft landing is accomplished according to plan. For each of the three release mechanisms a probability of growth is computed, using a model for transport into an environment suited to microbial growth.

  15. Alternative probability theories for cognitive psychology.

    PubMed

    Narens, Louis

    2014-01-01

    Various proposals for generalizing event spaces for probability functions have been put forth in the mathematical, scientific, and philosophic literatures. In cognitive psychology such generalizations are used for explaining puzzling results in decision theory and for modeling the influence of context effects. This commentary discusses proposals for generalizing probability theory to event spaces that are not necessarily boolean algebras. Two prominent examples are quantum probability theory, which is based on the set of closed subspaces of a Hilbert space, and topological probability theory, which is based on the set of open sets of a topology. Both have been applied to a variety of cognitive situations. This commentary focuses on how event space properties can influence probability concepts and impact cognitive modeling.

  16. Optimizing Probability of Detection Point Estimate Demonstration

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Koshti, Ajay M.

    2017-01-01

    Probability of detection (POD) analysis is used in assessing reliably detectable flaw size in nondestructive evaluation (NDE). MIL-HDBK-18231and associated mh18232POD software gives most common methods of POD analysis. Real flaws such as cracks and crack-like flaws are desired to be detected using these NDE methods. A reliably detectable crack size is required for safe life analysis of fracture critical parts. The paper provides discussion on optimizing probability of detection (POD) demonstration experiments using Point Estimate Method. POD Point estimate method is used by NASA for qualifying special NDE procedures. The point estimate method uses binomial distribution for probability density. Normally, a set of 29 flaws of same size within some tolerance are used in the demonstration. The optimization is performed to provide acceptable value for probability of passing demonstration (PPD) and achieving acceptable value for probability of false (POF) calls while keeping the flaw sizes in the set as small as possible.

  17. Time-dependent landslide probability mapping

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Campbell, Russell H.; Bernknopf, Richard L.; ,

    1993-01-01

    Case studies where time of failure is known for rainfall-triggered debris flows can be used to estimate the parameters of a hazard model in which the probability of failure is a function of time. As an example, a time-dependent function for the conditional probability of a soil slip is estimated from independent variables representing hillside morphology, approximations of material properties, and the duration and rate of rainfall. If probabilities are calculated in a GIS (geomorphic information system ) environment, the spatial distribution of the result for any given hour can be displayed on a map. Although the probability levels in this example are uncalibrated, the method offers a potential for evaluating different physical models and different earth-science variables by comparing the map distribution of predicted probabilities with inventory maps for different areas and different storms. If linked with spatial and temporal socio-economic variables, this method could be used for short-term risk assessment.

  18. An introductory analysis of satellite collision probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlton-Wippern, Kitt C.

    This paper addresses a probailistic approach in assessing the probabilities of a satellite collision occurring due to relative trajectory analyses and probability density functions representing the satellites' position/momentum vectors. The paper is divided into 2 parts: Static and Dynamic Collision Probabilities. In the Static Collision Probability section, the basic phenomenon under study is: given the mean positions and associated position probability density functions for the two objects, calculate the probability that the two objects collide (defined as being within some distance of each other). The paper presents the classic Laplace problem of the probability of arrival, using standard uniform distribution functions. This problem is then extrapolated to show how 'arrival' can be classified as 'collision', how the arrival space geometries map to collision space geometries and how arbitrary position density functions can then be included and integrated into the analysis. In the Dynamic Collision Probability section, the nature of collisions based upon both trajectory and energy considerations is discussed, and that energy states alone cannot be used to completely describe whether or not a collision occurs. This fact invalidates some earlier work on the subject and demonstrates why Liouville's theorem cannot be used in general to describe the constant density of the position/momentum space in which a collision may occur. Future position probability density functions are then shown to be the convolution of the current position and momentum density functions (linear analysis), and the paper further demonstrates the dependency of the future position density functions on time. Strategies for assessing the collision probabilities for two point masses with uncertainties in position and momentum at some given time, and thes integrated with some arbitrary impact volume schema, are then discussed. This presentation concludes with the formulation of a high level design

  19. Ultrasound elasticity imaging of human posterior tibial tendon

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gao, Liang

    Posterior tibial tendon dysfunction (PTTD) is a common degenerative condition leading to a severe impairment of gait. There is currently no effective method to determine whether a patient with advanced PTTD would benefit from several months of bracing and physical therapy or ultimately require surgery. Tendon degeneration is closely associated with irreversible degradation of its collagen structure, leading to changes to its mechanical properties. If these properties could be monitored in vivo, it could be used to quantify the severity of tendonosis and help determine the appropriate treatment. Ultrasound elasticity imaging (UEI) is a real-time, noninvasive technique to objectively measure mechanical properties in soft tissue. It consists of acquiring a sequence of ultrasound frames and applying speckle tracking to estimate displacement and strain at each pixel. The goals of my dissertation were to 1) use acoustic simulations to investigate the performance of UEI during tendon deformation with different geometries; 2) develop and validate UEI as a potentially noninvasive technique for quantifying tendon mechanical properties in human cadaver experiments; 3) design a platform for UEI to measure mechanical properties of the PTT in vivo and determine whether there are detectable and quantifiable differences between healthy and diseased tendons. First, ultrasound simulations of tendon deformation were performed using an acoustic modeling program. The effects of different tendon geometries (cylinder and curved cylinder) on the performance of UEI were investigated. Modeling results indicated that UEI accurately estimated the strain in the cylinder geometry, but underestimated in the curved cylinder. The simulation also predicted that the out-of-the-plane motion of the PTT would cause a non-uniform strain pattern within incompressible homogeneous isotropic material. However, to average within a small region of interest determined by principal component analysis (PCA

  20. Posterior Corneal Characteristics of Cataract Patients with High Myopia

    PubMed Central

    Jing, Qinghe; Tang, Yating; Qian, Dongjin; Lu, Yi; Jiang, Yongxiang

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the characteristics of the posterior corneal surface in patients with high myopia before cataract surgery. Methods We performed a cross-sectional study at the Eye and ENT Hospital of Fudan University, Shanghai, China. Corneal astigmatism and axial length were measured with a rotating Scheimpflug camera (Pentacam) and partial coherence interferometry (IOLMaster) in a high-myopia study group of 167 eyes (axial length ≥ 26 mm) and a control group of 150 eyes (axial length > 20 mm and < 25 mm). Results Total corneal astigmatism and anterior corneal astigmatism values were higher in the high-myopia group than in the control group. There was no significant difference in posterior corneal astigmatism between the high-myopia study group and the control group. In the study group, the mean posterior corneal astigmatism (range 0 – −0.9 diopters) was –0.29 diopters (D) ± 0.17 standard deviations (SD). The steep corneal meridian was aligned vertically (60°–120°) in 87.43% of eyes for the posterior corneal surface, and did not change with increasing age. There was a significant correlation (r = 0.235, p = 0.002) between posterior corneal astigmatism and anterior corneal astigmatism, especially when the anterior corneal surface showed with-the-rule (WTR) astigmatism (r = 0.452, p = 0.000). There was a weak negative correlation between posterior corneal astigmatism and age (r = –0.15, p = 0.053) in the high-myopia group. Compared with total corneal astigmatism values, the anterior corneal measurements alone overestimated WTR astigmatism by a mean of 0.27 ± 0.18 D in 68.75% of eyes, underestimated against-the-rule (ATR) astigmatism by a mean of 0.41 ± 0.28 D in 88.89% of eyes, and underestimated oblique astigmatism by a mean of 0.24 ± 0.13 D in 63.64% of eyes. Conclusions Posterior corneal astigmatism decreased with age and remained as ATR astigmatism in most cases of high myopia. There was a significant correlation between posterior corneal

  1. Treatment of noninfectious posterior uveitis with dexamethasone intravitreal implant

    PubMed Central

    Myung, Jane S; Aaker, Grant D; Kiss, Szilárd

    2010-01-01

    Purpose To report our experience with dexamethasone 0.7 mg sustained-release intravitreal implant (Ozurdex®; Allergan, Inc, Irvine, CA) in noninfectious posterior uveitis. Methods A retrospective chart review of patients with noninfectious uveitis treated with sustained-release dexamethasone 0.7 mg intravitreal implant was performed. Complete ophthalmic examination including signs of inflammatory activity, visual acuity, fundus photography, fluorescein angiography, optical coherence tomography, and tolerability of the implant were assessed. Results Six eyes of 4 consecutive patients treated with a total of 8 dexamethasone 0.7 mg sustained-release intravitreal implants for posterior noninfectious uveitis were included. Two patients presented with unilateral idiopathic posterior uveitis; 2 patients had bilateral posterior uveitis, one secondary to sarcoidosis and the other to Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada syndrome. All eyes showed clinical and angiographic evidence of decreased inflammation following implant placement. Mean follow-up time post-injection was 5.25 months. Four eyes received 1 and 2 eyes received 2 Ozurdex implants during the follow-up period. The duration of effect of the implant was 3 to 4 months. No serious ocular or systemic adverse events were noted during the follow-up period. Conclusions In patients with noninfectious posterior uveitis, sustained-release dexamethasone 0.7 mg intravitreal implant may be an effective treatment option for controlling intraocular inflammation. PMID:21188153

  2. Flexor Digitorum Accessorius Longus: Importance of Posterior Ankle Endoscopy

    PubMed Central

    Batista, Jorge Pablo; del Vecchio, Jorge Javier; Golanó, Pau; Vega, Jordi

    2015-01-01

    Endoscopy for the posterior region of the ankle through two portals is becoming more widespread for the treatment of a large number of conditions which used to be treated with open surgery years ago. The tendon of the flexor hallucis longus (FHL) travels along an osteofibrous tunnel between the posterolateral and posteromedial tubercles of the talus. Chronic inflammation of this tendon may lead to painful stenosing tenosynovitis. The aim of this report is to describe two cases depicting an accessory tendon which is an anatomical variation of the flexor hallucis longus in patients with posterior friction syndrome due to posterior ankle impingement and associated with a posteromedial osteochondral lesion of the talus. The anatomical variation (FDAL) described was a finding during an endoscopy of the posterior region of the ankle, and we have spared it by sectioning the superior flexor retinaculum only. The accessory flexor digitorum longus is an anatomical variation and should be taken into account when performing an arthroscopy of the posterior region of the ankle. We recommend this treatment on this type of injury although we admit this does not make a definite conclusion. PMID:26060592

  3. Arthroscopic subtalar arthrodesis: the posterior approach in the prone position.

    PubMed

    Carro, Luis Perez; Golanó, Pau; Vega, Jordi

    2007-04-01

    Arthroscopic subtalar arthrodesis, as reported by Tasto, is done in the lateral decubitus position, and the portal sites are lateral. This report describes a new alternative method in which the patient is in the prone position and a posterior 2-portal approach is used, as described by van Dijk et al. The initial debridement and synovectomy are performed with 4- and 5-mm resectors. Debridement and decortication are done posterior to the interosseous ligament because only the posterior facet is fused. Denudation of the articular surfaces is performed with curettes, as well as 4.5- and 5.5-mm burs, to remove 2 mm of subchondral bone. Stabilization in 5 degrees of hindfoot valgus is accomplished with 2 percutaneous cannulated headless screws from the non-weight-bearing portion of the calcaneal tuberosity directed to a point 5 to 10 mm posterior to the anterior margin of the posterior facet. The advantages of this alternative treatment are better intra-articular visualization, more thorough preparation of the fusion site, and minimal bone removal of the lateral side with better control of the arthrodesis position and with less chance of malunion, as well as the possibility to perform a concomitant surgical fusion or debridement of the ankle joint during the same operative procedure with no need for additional portals or orientation.

  4. Instrumented Posterior Lumbar Interbody Fusion in Adult Spondylolisthesis

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Ching-Hsiao; Wang, Chen-Ti

    2008-01-01

    It is unclear whether using artificial cages increases fusion rates compared with use of bone chips alone in posterior lumbar interbody fusion for patients with lumbar spondylolisthesis. We hypothesized artificial cages for posterior lumbar interbody fusion would provide better clinical and radiographic outcomes than bone chips alone. We assumed solid fusion would provide good clinical outcomes. We clinically and radiographically followed 34 patients with spondylolisthesis having posterior lumbar interbody fusion with mixed autogenous and allogeneic bone chips alone and 42 patients having posterior lumbar interbody fusion with implantation of artificial cages packed with morselized bone graft. Patients with the artificial cage had better functional improvement in the Oswestry disability index than those with bone chips alone, whereas pain score, patient satisfaction, and fusion rate were similar in the two groups. Postoperative disc height ratio, slip ratio, and segmental lordosis all decreased at final followup in the patients with bone chips alone but remained unchanged in the artificial cage group. The functional outcome correlated with radiographic fusion status. We conclude artificial cages provide better functional outcomes and radiographic improvement than bone chips alone in posterior lumbar interbody fusion for lumbar spondylolisthesis, although both techniques achieved comparable fusion rates. Level of Evidence: Level III, therapeutic study. See the Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence. PMID:18846411

  5. Biochemical and Clinical Assessments of Segmental Maxillary Posterior Tooth Intrusion

    PubMed Central

    Tasanapanont, Jintana; Wattanachai, Tanapan; Apisariyakul, Janya; Pothacharoen, Peraphan; Kongtawelert, Prachya; Midtbø, Marit

    2017-01-01

    Objective. To compare chondroitin sulphate (CS) levels around maxillary second premolars, first molars, and second molars between the unloaded and the loaded periods and to measure the rates of intrusion of maxillary posterior teeth during segmental posterior tooth intrusion. Materials and Methods. In this prospective clinical study, 105 teeth (from 15 patients exhibiting anterior open bite and requiring maxillary posterior tooth intrusion) were studied. Competitive ELISA was used to detect CS levels. Dental casts (during the unloaded and loaded periods) were scanned, and posterior tooth intrusion distances were measured. Results. During the unloaded period, the median CS levels around maxillary second premolars, first molars, second molars (experimental teeth), and mandibular first molars (negative control) were 0.006, 0.055, 0.056, and 0.012 and during the loaded period were 2.592, 5.738, 4.727, and 0.163 ng/μg of total protein, respectively. The median CS levels around experimental teeth were significantly elevated during the loaded period. The mean rates of maxillary second premolar and first and second molar intrusion were 0.72, 0.58, and 0.40 mm/12 weeks, respectively. Conclusions. Biochemical and clinical assessments suggested that the segmental posterior tooth intrusion treatment modality with 50 g of vertical force per side was sufficient. Trial Registration. The study is registered as TCTR20170206006. PMID:28321256

  6. Weighted maximum posterior marginals for random fields using an ensemble of conditional densities from multiple Markov chain Monte Carlo simulations.

    PubMed

    Monaco, James Peter; Madabhushi, Anant

    2011-07-01

    The ability of classification systems to adjust their performance (sensitivity/specificity) is essential for tasks in which certain errors are more significant than others. For example, mislabeling cancerous lesions as benign is typically more detrimental than mislabeling benign lesions as cancerous. Unfortunately, methods for modifying the performance of Markov random field (MRF) based classifiers are noticeably absent from the literature, and thus most such systems restrict their performance to a single, static operating point (a paired sensitivity/specificity). To address this deficiency we present weighted maximum posterior marginals (WMPM) estimation, an extension of maximum posterior marginals (MPM) estimation. Whereas the MPM cost function penalizes each error equally, the WMPM cost function allows misclassifications associated with certain classes to be weighted more heavily than others. This creates a preference for specific classes, and consequently a means for adjusting classifier performance. Realizing WMPM estimation (like MPM estimation) requires estimates of the posterior marginal distributions. The most prevalent means for estimating these--proposed by Marroquin--utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Though Marroquin's method (M-MCMC) yields estimates that are sufficiently accurate for MPM estimation, they are inadequate for WMPM. To more accurately estimate the posterior marginals we present an equally simple, but more effective extension of the MCMC method (E-MCMC). Assuming an identical number of iterations, E-MCMC as compared to M-MCMC yields estimates with higher fidelity, thereby 1) allowing a far greater number and diversity of operating points and 2) improving overall classifier performance. To illustrate the utility of WMPM and compare the efficacies of M-MCMC and E-MCMC, we integrate them into our MRF-based classification system for detecting cancerous glands in (whole-mount or quarter) histological sections of the prostate.

  7. Mortality Probability Model III and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II

    PubMed Central

    Vasilevskis, Eduard E.; Kuzniewicz, Michael W.; Cason, Brian A.; Lane, Rondall K.; Dean, Mitzi L.; Clay, Ted; Rennie, Deborah J.; Vittinghoff, Eric; Dudley, R. Adams

    2009-01-01

    Background: To develop and compare ICU length-of-stay (LOS) risk-adjustment models using three commonly used mortality or LOS prediction models. Methods: Between 2001 and 2004, we performed a retrospective, observational study of 11,295 ICU patients from 35 hospitals in the California Intensive Care Outcomes Project. We compared the accuracy of the following three LOS models: a recalibrated acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHE) IV-LOS model; and models developed using risk factors in the mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0) and the simplified acute physiology score (SAPS) II mortality prediction model. We evaluated models by calculating the following: (1) grouped coefficients of determination; (2) differences between observed and predicted LOS across subgroups; and (3) intraclass correlations of observed/expected LOS ratios between models. Results: The grouped coefficients of determination were APACHE IV with coefficients recalibrated to the LOS values of the study cohort (APACHE IVrecal) [R2 = 0.422], mortality probability model III at zero hours (MPM0 III) [R2 = 0.279], and simplified acute physiology score (SAPS II) [R2 = 0.008]. For each decile of predicted ICU LOS, the mean predicted LOS vs the observed LOS was significantly different (p ≤ 0.05) for three, two, and six deciles using APACHE IVrecal, MPM0 III, and SAPS II, respectively. Plots of the predicted vs the observed LOS ratios of the hospitals revealed a threefold variation in LOS among hospitals with high model correlations. Conclusions: APACHE IV and MPM0 III were more accurate than SAPS II for the prediction of ICU LOS. APACHE IV is the most accurate and best calibrated model. Although it is less accurate, MPM0 III may be a reasonable option if the data collection burden or the treatment effect bias is a consideration. PMID:19363210

  8. Progress on Radiative Transition Probabilities in Neutral Cerium

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Curry, J. J.

    2009-10-01

    Cerium is a rare-earth atom that is currently used in energy-efficient metal-halide lamps because of its rich visible emission spectrum. More than 20,000 lines have been observed and classified for neutral cerium in the wavelength range of 340 nm to 1 μm (Bill Martin, unpublished). We recently derived more than 500 absolute transition probabilities from existing experimental data (J. Phys. D: Appl. Phys. 2009). Lawler and Den Hartog at the University of Wisconsin have made measurements that are expected to produce a few thousand transition probabilities. These advances, however, leave the data situation far short of what is needed to simulate an accurate global emission spectrum in numerical models of metal-halide lamps containing cerium. One possibility for closing this gap is through atomic structure calculations. Although it may be difficult for calculations to match the accuracy of measurements for any given transition, the global spectral distribution produced with calculated transition probabilities may still be satisfactory. For such a large number of lines, calculations may be the only realistic way to produce a reasonably complete set of data. We will discuss our recent atomic structure calculations of neutral cerium with the Cowan code based on a parametric fit of calculated energy level values to experimental values.

  9. Non-Parametric Collision Probability for Low-Velocity Encounters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Carpenter, J. Russell

    2007-01-01

    An implicit, but not necessarily obvious, assumption in all of the current techniques for assessing satellite collision probability is that the relative position uncertainty is perfectly correlated in time. If there is any mis-modeling of the dynamics in the propagation of the relative position error covariance matrix, time-wise de-correlation of the uncertainty will increase the probability of collision over a given time interval. The paper gives some examples that illustrate this point. This paper argues that, for the present, Monte Carlo analysis is the best available tool for handling low-velocity encounters, and suggests some techniques for addressing the issues just described. One proposal is for the use of a non-parametric technique that is widely used in actuarial and medical studies. The other suggestion is that accurate process noise models be used in the Monte Carlo trials to which the non-parametric estimate is applied. A further contribution of this paper is a description of how the time-wise decorrelation of uncertainty increases the probability of collision.

  10. Probability-based stability robustness assessment of controlled structures

    SciTech Connect

    Field, R.V. Jr.; Voulgaris, P.G.; Bergman, L.A.

    1996-01-01

    Model uncertainty, if ignored, can seriously degrade the performance of an otherwise well-designed control system. If the level of this uncertainty is extreme, the system may even be driven to instability. In the context of structural control, performance degradation and instability imply excessive vibration or even structural failure. Robust control has typically been applied to the issue of model uncertainty through worst-case analyses. These traditional methods include the use of the structured singular value, as applied to the small gain condition, to provide estimates of controller robustness. However, this emphasis on the worst-case scenario has not allowed a probabilistic understanding of robust control. In this paper an attempt to view controller robustness as a probability measure is presented. The probability of failure due to parametric uncertainty is estimated using first-order reliability methods (FORM). It is demonstrated that this method can provide quite accurate results on the probability of failure of actively controlled structures. Moreover, a comparison of this method to a suitability modified structured singular value robustness analysis in a probabilistic framework is performed. It is shown that FORM is the superior analysis technique when applied to a controlled three degree-of-freedom structure. In addition, the robustness qualities of various active control design schemes such as LQR, H{sub 2}, H {sub oo}, and {mu}-synthesis is discussed in order to provide some design guidelines.

  11. Posterior predictive checks of tetrad subsets for covariance structures of measurement models.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Timothy R; Bodner, Todd E

    2013-12-01

    Confirmatory tetrad analysis is based on tetrads that are assumed to be 0 or to "vanish" under an assumed model to test the goodness of fit of a model or the relative fit of nested models. A strength of a tetrad-based approach to model fit assessment over standard methods is that researchers can evaluate the plausibility of a theoretical model structure when estimation or identification is problematic. Previous research has developed confirmatory tetrad analysis for covariance structures using asymptotic and bootstrap sampling distributions for omnibus test statistics for all vanishing tetrads. We extend confirmatory tetrad analysis in 2 ways. First, we develop an approach to confirmatory tetrad analysis based on posterior predictive checks for Bayesian probability models using tetrads to construct discrepancy measures. Second, we show how the discrepancy measure for all vanishing tetrads can be additively decomposed into measures for subsets of tetrads using a typology of tetrads proposed by Kenny (1979). We show that posterior predictive checks using a hierarchy of subsets of tetrads from this typology can be effectively used to identify potential and specific sources for lack of fit. We demonstrate the utility of this approach with classic data sets from the literature and with simulated data.

  12. Liquefaction probability curves for surficial geologic deposits

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Holzer, Thomas L.; Noce, Thomas E.; Bennett, Michael J.

    2011-01-01

    Liquefaction probability curves that predict the probability of surface manifestations of earthquake-induced liquefaction are developed for 14 different types of surficial geologic units. The units consist of alluvial fan, beach ridge, river delta topset and foreset beds, eolian dune, point bar, flood basin, natural river and alluvial fan levees, abandoned river channel, deep-water lake, lagoonal, sandy artificial fill, and valley train deposits. Probability is conditioned on earthquake magnitude and peak ground acceleration. Curves are developed for water table depths of 1.5 and 5.0 m. Probabilities are derived from complementary cumulative frequency distributions of the liquefaction potential index (LPI) that were computed from 927 cone penetration tests. For natural deposits with a water table at 1.5 m and subjected to a M7.5 earthquake with peak ground acceleration (PGA)  =  0.25g, probabilities range from 0.5 for beach ridge, point bar, and deltaic deposits. The curves also were used to assign ranges of liquefaction probabilities to the susceptibility categories proposed previously for different geologic deposits. For the earthquake described here, probabilities for susceptibility categories have ranges of 0–0.08 for low, 0.09–0.30 for moderate, 0.31–0.62 for high, and 0.63–1.00 for very high. Retrospective predictions of liquefaction during historical earthquakes based on the curves compare favorably to observations.

  13. Seismicity alert probabilities at Parkfield, California, revisited

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Michael, A.J.; Jones, L.M.

    1998-01-01

    For a decade, the US Geological Survey has used the Parkfield Earthquake Prediction Experiment scenario document to estimate the probability that earthquakes observed on the San Andreas fault near Parkfield will turn out to be foreshocks followed by the expected magnitude six mainshock. During this time, we have learned much about the seismogenic process at Parkfield, about the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock, and about the estimation of these types of probabilities. The probabilities for potential foreshocks at Parkfield are reexamined and revised in light of these advances. As part of this process, we have confirmed both the rate of foreshocks before strike-slip earthquakes in the San Andreas physiographic province and the uniform distribution of foreshocks with magnitude proposed by earlier studies. Compared to the earlier assessment, these new estimates of the long-term probability of the Parkfield mainshock are lower, our estimate of the rate of background seismicity is higher, and we find that the assumption that foreshocks at Parkfield occur in a unique way is not statistically significant at the 95% confidence level. While the exact numbers vary depending on the assumptions that are made, the new alert probabilities are lower than previously estimated. Considering the various assumptions and the statistical uncertainties in the input parameters, we also compute a plausible range for the probabilities. The range is large, partly due to the extra knowledge that exists for the Parkfield segment, making us question the usefulness of these numbers.

  14. Pippi — Painless parsing, post-processing and plotting of posterior and likelihood samples

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scott, Pat

    2012-11-01

    Interpreting samples from likelihood or posterior probability density functions is rarely as straightforward as it seems it should be. Producing publication-quality graphics of these distributions is often similarly painful. In this short note I describe pippi, a simple, publicly available package for parsing and post-processing such samples, as well as generating high-quality PDF graphics of the results. Pippi is easily and extensively configurable and customisable, both in its options for parsing and post-processing samples, and in the visual aspects of the figures it produces. I illustrate some of these using an existing supersymmetric global fit, performed in the context of a gamma-ray search for dark matter. Pippi can be downloaded and followed at http://github.com/patscott/pippi.

  15. The probability distribution of intense daily precipitation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cavanaugh, Nicholas R.; Gershunov, Alexander; Panorska, Anna K.; Kozubowski, Tomasz J.

    2015-03-01

    The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical and practical implications for the modeling of high-frequency climate variability worldwide.

  16. Class probability estimation for medical studies.

    PubMed

    Simon, Richard

    2014-07-01

    I provide a commentary on two papers "Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: Theory" by Jochen Kruppa, Yufeng Liu, Gérard Biau, Michael Kohler, Inke R. König, James D. Malley, and Andreas Ziegler; and "Probability estimation with machine learning methods for dichotomous and multicategory outcome: Applications" by Jochen Kruppa, Yufeng Liu, Hans-Christian Diener, Theresa Holste, Christian Weimar, Inke R. König, and Andreas Ziegler. Those papers provide an up-to-date review of some popular machine learning methods for class probability estimation and compare those methods to logistic regression modeling in real and simulated datasets.

  17. Objective and subjective probability in gene expression.

    PubMed

    Velasco, Joel D

    2012-09-01

    In this paper I address the question of whether the probabilities that appear in models of stochastic gene expression are objective or subjective. I argue that while our best models of the phenomena in question are stochastic models, this fact should not lead us to automatically assume that the processes are inherently stochastic. After distinguishing between models and reality, I give a brief introduction to the philosophical problem of the interpretation of probability statements. I argue that the objective vs. subjective distinction is a false dichotomy and is an unhelpful distinction in this case. Instead, the probabilities in our models of gene expression exhibit standard features of both objectivity and subjectivity.

  18. Subjective experience, involuntary movement, and posterior alien hand syndrome

    PubMed Central

    Bundick, T; Spinella, M

    2000-01-01

    The alien hand syndrome, as originally defined, was used to describe cases involving anterior corpus callosal lesions producing involuntary movement and a concomitant inability to distinguish the affected hand from an examiner's hand when these were placed in the patient's unaffected hand. In recent years, acceptable usage of the term has broadened considerably, and has been defined as involuntary movement occurring in the context of feelings of estrangement from or personification of the affected limb or its movements. Three varieties of alien hand syndrome have been reported, involving lesions of the corpus callosum alone, the corpus callosum plus dominant medial frontal cortex, and posterior cortical/subcortical areas. A patient with posterior alien hand syndrome of vascular aetiology is reported and the findings are discussed in the light of a conceptualisation of posterior alien hand syndrome as a disorder which may be less associated with specific focal neuropathology than are its callosal and callosal-frontal counterparts.

 PMID:10601408

  19. ‘Split posterior tooth’: conservative clinical re-attachment

    PubMed Central

    Abraham, Sathish; Chacko, Lisa Neelathil

    2014-01-01

    Trauma is the prime causative factor for fracture of teeth/dentition. Many procedural management options are followed successfully in relation to the anterior teeth. However, most posterior cases where the tooth is fractured have only limited options to pursue to save the tooth. Fractured teeth, whether they are vital/non-vital, are predominantly managed with surgical options. This paper discusses a conservative approach to reattaching a split posterior tooth. A split tooth situation is mostly an absolute indication for extraction, but the clinician may go in for extensive surgical procedures if he/she wishes to save it. The reattachment of the tooth can be successfully done and it can be put to function. This paper discusses how a split posterior tooth can be treated successfully, although depending on multiple factors. A full crown cemented after successful reattachment and root canal therapy would provide sufficient support in order for the tooth to heal. PMID:25080545

  20. Endothelin: A novel peptide in the posterior pituitary system

    SciTech Connect

    Yoshizawa, Toshihiro; Kanazawa, Ichiro; Shinmi, Osamu; Kimura, Sadao; Yanagisawa, Masashi; Masaki, Tomoh; Uchiyama, Yasuo ); Giaid, A.; Gibson, S.J.; Polak, J.M. )

    1990-01-26

    Endothelin (ET), originally characterized as a 21-residue vasoconstrictor peptide from endothelial cells, is present in the porcine spinal cord and may act as a neuropeptide. Endothelin-like immunoreactivity has now been demonstrated by immunohistochemistry in the paraventricular and supraoptic nuclear neurons and their terminals in the posterior pituitary of the pig and the rat. The presence of ET in the porcine hypothalamus was confirmed by reversed-phase high-pressure liquid chromatography and radioimmunoassay. Moreover, in situ hybridization demonstrated ET messenger RNA in porcine paraventricular nuclear neurons. Endothelin-like immunoreactive products in the posterior pituitary of the rat were depleted by water deprivation, suggesting a release of ET under physiological conditions. These findings indicate that ET is synthesized in the posterior pituitary system and may be involved in neurosecretory functions.

  1. Quantification of Posterior Globe Flattening: Methodology Development and Validation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lumpkins, Sarah B.; Garcia, Kathleen M.; Sargsyan, Ashot E.; Hamilton, Douglas R.; Berggren, Michael D.; Ebert, Douglas

    2012-01-01

    Microgravity exposure affects visual acuity in a subset of astronauts and mechanisms may include structural changes in the posterior globe and orbit. Particularly, posterior globe flattening has been implicated in the eyes of several astronauts. This phenomenon is known to affect some terrestrial patient populations and has been shown to be associated with intracranial hypertension. It is commonly assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT) or B-mode Ultrasound (US), without consistent objective criteria. NASA uses a semiquantitative scale of 0-3 as part of eye/orbit MRI and US analysis for occupational monitoring purposes. The goal of this study was ot initiate development of an objective quantification methodology to monitor small changes in posterior globe flattening.

  2. Quantification of Posterior Globe Flattening: Methodology Development and Validationc

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lumpkins, S. B.; Garcia, K. M.; Sargsyan, A. E.; Hamilton, D. R.; Berggren, M. D.; Antonsen, E.; Ebert, D.

    2011-01-01

    Microgravity exposure affects visual acuity in a subset of astronauts, and mechanisms may include structural changes in the posterior globe and orbit. Particularly, posterior globe flattening has been implicated in several astronauts. This phenomenon is known to affect some terrestrial patient populations, and has been shown to be associated with intracranial hypertension. It is commonly assessed by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), computed tomography (CT), or B-mode ultrasound (US), without consistent objective criteria. NASA uses a semi-quantitative scale of 0-3 as part of eye/orbit MRI and US analysis for occupational monitoring purposes. The goal of this study was to initiate development of an objective quantification methodology for posterior globe flattening.

  3. Ligamentous and capsular restraints to experimental posterior elbow joint dislocation.

    PubMed

    Deutch, Søren R; Olsen, Bo S; Jensen, Steen L; Tyrdal, Stein; Sneppen, Otto

    2003-10-01

    Pathological external forearm rotation (PEFR) relates to posterolateral elbow joint instability, and is considered a possible requisite step in a simple posterior elbow joint dislocation. The aim of this study was to evaluate the capsuloligamentous restraint to PEFR. In all, 18 elbow joint specimens were examined in a joint analysis system developed for experimental elbow dislocation. Sequential cutting of capsule and ligaments followed by stability testing provided specific data relating to each capsuloligamentous structure. The primary stabilizers against PEFR in the extended elbow were the anterior capsule and the lateral collateral ligament complex (LCLC), whereas in the flexed elbow the anterior capsule did not have a stabilizing effect. In flexed joint positions, the LCLC seems to be the only immediate stabilizer against PEFR, and thereby against posterolateral instability and possibly against posterior dislocation. The medial collateral ligament did not have any immediate stabilizing effect, but it prevented the final step of the posterior dislocation.

  4. Ossification of the posterior atlantoaxial membrane associated with atlas hypoplasia

    PubMed Central

    Meng, Yichen; Zhou, Dongxiao; Gao, Rui; Ma, Jun; Wang, Ce; Zhou, Xuhui

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Rationale: Hypoplasia with an intact posterior arch of the atlas and ossification of the posterior atlantoaxial membrane (PAAM) are individually rare. Patient concerns: The patient presented with a 6-month history of progressive weakness and paresthesia of his lower extremities. Diagnoses: Cervical myelopathy resulting from atlas hypoplasia and ossification of the posterior atlantoaxial membrane. Interventions: Laminectomy of the atlas with duroplasty. Outcomes: Preoperative symptoms were alleviated. Lessons: In most reported cases, either atlas hypoplasia or ossification of the PAAM is responsible for patients’ myelopathy. The case illustrated here, to the best of our knowledge, is the first one with coexistent atlas hypoplasia and ossification of the PAAM. And laminectomy of the atlas with duroplasty provided satisfied outcome. PMID:27902623

  5. Language Disorders due to Posterior System Strokes - An Ignored Dysfunction

    PubMed Central

    ÖZTÜRK, Şerefnur; EGE, Fahrettin; EKMEKÇİ, Hakan

    2014-01-01

    The anterior system is primarily responsible for the clinical picture in a patient that presents with clinical aphasia. However, recent reports have shown that injuries to posterior structures, the cerebellum in particular, may have a role in language processing. Herein, we will look first at the linguistic role of the cerebellum in light of the literature, then of the thalamus and some described clinical syndromes, and finally, specific syndromes resulting from occipital lobe lesions, all of which are supported by the posterior vascular system. The human brain is such a complex organization that in addition to the thalamus and occipital cortex, we can see the involvement of the cerebellum in high cognitive functions. Posterior system strokes may lead to clinical findings of cognitive deficits, including neurolinguistic components. Determining these defects in stroke patients may precipitate changes in current management strategies. PMID:28360648

  6. [Segmental posterior spinal osteosynthesis using the Luque-Dove technic].

    PubMed

    Kerboul, B; Courtois, B

    1989-03-01

    The Hartshill frame is method for segmental osteosynthesis of the spine. It is attached at each vertebral level by sub-laminal metal wires. This frame therefore ensures immediate stability and avoids the need for a post-operative corset. It enables correction of frontal deformities (scoliosis) whilst retaining sagittal physiological curves (lumbar lordosis--dorsal kyphosis). It ensures the fixation of posterior spinal instability (destruction of posterior ligaments and bone tissue, spondylolisthesis, etc.). The Hartshill frame can thus be seen to be a posterior brace. It has been used in 92 patients, (53 lumbar disorders, 10 cases of scoliosis, 4 of kyphosis, 19 tumors, 6 fractures). Results are generally entirely satisfactory in the mid term apart from fractures (recurrence of initial displacement). Specific complications are of a neurological nature (cases of cutaneous hyperesthesia, one severe motor deficit) long-term problems with device and material are uncommon; rupture of sub-laminar wire 8 cases; secondary incurving of frame 1 case.

  7. Ganglion cyst of the posterior cruciate ligament in a child.

    PubMed

    Hameed, Shamsi Abdul; Sujir, Premjit; Naik, Monappa A; Rao, Sharath K

    2012-04-01

    Ganglion cysts are more commonly associated with the anterior cruciate ligament than the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL). A literature review showed that all reported cases of ganglion cysts to date involved adults. We report a rare case of ganglion cyst in the PCL of a four-year-old boy, and discuss its aetiology, clinical presentation, imaging features and management. Ganglion cysts of the PCL may be confused with meniscal cysts arising from tears of the posterior horn of the medial meniscus on magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. Hence, the posterior horn of the medial meniscus has to be carefully evaluated to rule out a tear. MR imaging is the method of choice to confirm diagnosis, and arthroscopic resection is a safe treatment modality even in children.

  8. Posterior Wall Gastric Leiomyoma: Endoscopic Tattooing Facilitates Laparoscopic Resection

    PubMed Central

    Mehta, Dhiren; Zelen, Johnathan; Fogler, Richard

    1998-01-01

    Objective: To demonstrate the application of tattooing for the intraoperative localization of posterior wall gastric leiomyoma during laparoscopic resection. The preoperative injection of Indian ink in the tumor-bearing area of the posterior gastric wall eliminates the need to perform anterior wall gastrostomy or intraoperative upper endoscopic tumor localization. Methods: A patient with posterior wall gastric leiomyoma was marked with Indian ink during preoperative upper endoscopy. The dye was visualized intraoperatively facilitating wedge resection of the tumor-bearing area with the Endo GIA. Results: The patient had an uneventful surgery and recovery. Complete excision of the tumor was accomplished. Conclusion: The preoperative endoscopic marking of gastric lesions, facilitates the intraoperative localization and resection of these lesions. PMID:9876718

  9. Structural Position of the Posterior Vagina and Pelvic Floor in Women with and without Posterior Vaginal Prolapse

    PubMed Central

    LEWICKY-GAUPP, Christina; YOUSUF, Aisha; LARSON, Kindra A; FENNER, Dee E; DeLANCEY, John OL

    2012-01-01

    Objective Compare pelvic structure location on MRI during maximal Valsalva among women with posterior prolapse and those with normal support. Methods and Materials Cases (n=37) had posterior vaginal wall (PVW) prolapse > +1cm. All underwent mid-sagittal, dynamic MRI. Structure locations (distal vagina, apex, perineal body, external anal sphincter) were determined. PVW length, levator and urogenital hiatus diameters, and prolapse diameter were measured. Results Cases had more caudal structures (p<0.001) and larger hiatus diameters (p<0.005); the posterior wall was longer, while the straight-line distance between the apex and distal vagina was shorter. In enteroceles, the apex was more ventrally displaced compared to rectoceles (p=0.003). Unlike apical descent (r=-0.3, p=0.1), PVW length and point Bp were correlated with MRI prolapse size (r=0.5, p=0.002; r=0.7, P<0.001, respectively). Conclusion At maximal Valsalva on MRI, structures are more caudal in women with posterior prolapse. The posterior vaginal wall is longer; this length strongly correlates with prolapse size. PMID:20452497

  10. Posterior clinoidectomy: dural tailoring technique and clinical application.

    PubMed

    Youssef, A Samy; van Loveren, Harry R

    2009-05-01

    The posterior clinoid process, a bony prominence at the superolateral aspect of the dorsum sellae, has a strategic importance in a transcavernous approach to basilar tip aneurysms. To further optimize this microsurgical technique during posterior clinoidectomy, we performed a cadaveric study of this regional anatomy, describe a technique called dural tailoring, and report initial results in the surgical treatment of upper basilar artery (BA) aneurysm. After 10 adult cadaver heads (silicone-injected) were prepared for dissection, a posterior clinoidectomy with dural tailoring was performed. The dura overlying the upper clivus was coagulated with bipolar electrocoagulation and incised. Stripping dura off the clivus and lateral reflection then exposed the ipsilateral posterior clinoid process and dorsum sellae, thus creating a dural flap. Posterior clinoidectomy with dural tailoring was then used in seven patients with upper BA aneurysms. Our stepwise modification of the posterior clinoidectomy with dural tailoring created a flap that afforded protection of the cavernous sinus and oculomotor nerve. During surgery, there were no recorded intraoperative injuries to neurovascular structures. One patient died postoperatively from morbidity related to severe-grade subarachnoid hemorrhage. Postoperative oculomotor nerve palsy occurred in 3 patients (43%). In all cases, the nerve was anatomically preserved and partial to complete recovery was recorded during the first postoperative year. This technique effectively provided exposure of retrosellar upper basilar aneurysms in seven patients (basilar tip 43% and superior cerebellar artery aneurysms 57%). Outcomes and safety are at least equivalent to or better than basilar aneurysm surgery performed without surgical adjuncts, presumably a less complex subset.

  11. Teaching of posterior composites in dental schools in Japan.

    PubMed

    Hayashi, M; Seow, L L; Lynch, C D; Wilson, N H F

    2009-04-01

    The teaching of posterior composites has undergone considerable refinement and development in western countries in recent years. However, little information exists on this teaching in other parts of the world. The aim of this paper is to investigate the teaching of posterior composites to undergraduate dental students in Japan. In late 2007/early 2008, a questionnaire seeking information on the teaching of posterior composites was distributed by email to the person responsible for teaching operative dentistry in each of the 29 dental schools having undergraduate dental degree programmes in Japan. Twenty-three completed responses were returned (response rate = 79%). While all 23 schools taught the placement of composite in occlusal cavities in premolars and molars, 7 schools did not teach the placement of two-surface occlusoproximal composites in premolars (n = 1) and molars (n = 6) and 14 schools and 15 schools do not teach placement of three surface occlusoproximal composites in premolars and molars, respectively. While composite at the time of the survey accounted for 45% of posterior direct restorations placed by students, it is anticipated that this proportion will increase to 59% in 5 years time. Variations were noted between schools in the teaching of principles of cavity design, techniques for restoring proximal contours and light-curing technologies; however, more consistency was observed in techniques used for protecting operatively exposed dentine than that observed in western countries. Despite variations between dental schools being noted in the teaching of certain techniques for posterior composites, the overall extent and content of teaching of posterior composites in Japan could be described as comparable, if not exceeding, than that observed in western countries.

  12. Scrotal dermoid extending to the posterior urethra through a corpus cavernosum in a child.

    PubMed

    Canali, Raffaella; Angelini, Lorenzo; Castagnetti, Marco; Zhapa, Evisa; Rigamonti, Waifro

    2012-08-01

    A 3-year-old boy presented with an asymptomatic intertesticular mass increasing in size. Plasma tumor markers (α-fetoprotein and β-human chorionic gonadotrophin) were negative. The mass had a pattern similar to testicular parenchyma but no discernable blood flow on scrotal Doppler ultrasound. Magnetic resonance imaging scan showed that it reached the posterior urethra after passing through the right corpus cavernosum with a progressive tapering extending into the pelvis. The mass was excised surgically and histologically found to be consistent with a dermoid cyst. Such rare benign lesions should be considered in the differential diagnosis of painless scrotal masses in children. Its anatomy was accurately defined by magnetic resonance imaging and was essential to minimize the risk to adjacent structures.

  13. Sensitivity of posterior parameter correlations and response parameter correlations to prior response uncertainty

    SciTech Connect

    Wagschal, J. J.

    2012-07-01

    The two parameters one response model of the generalized linear least squares parameter adjustment methodology was used in order to analyze the procedure of improving cross sections agreement with integral experimental results. Two extreme adjustment cases were considered. One case is using extremely accurate measured integral responses, such as k{sub eff} of Godiva or Jezebel for instance. The other one is modifying only one parameter, for instance the modification of {nu}-bar in ENDF/B-VII, in order to improve agreement of calculated responses with corresponding integral measurements results. In both cases new posterior parameters correlations are generated. The conclusion is that it is not advised to use integral measurements information in the evaluation process of a general purpose nuclear data file. (authors)

  14. Posterior tibial vein aneurysm presenting as tarsal tunnel syndrome.

    PubMed

    Ayad, Micheal; Whisenhunt, Anumeha; Hong, EnYaw; Heller, Josh; Salvatore, Dawn; Abai, Babak; DiMuzio, Paul J

    2015-06-01

    Tarsal tunnel syndrome is a compressive neuropathy of the posterior tibial nerve within the tarsal tunnel. Its etiology varies, including space occupying lesions, trauma, inflammation, anatomic deformity, iatrogenic injury, and idiopathic and systemic causes. Herein, we describe a 46-year-old man who presented with left foot pain. Work up revealed a venous aneurysm impinging on the posterior tibial nerve. Following resection of the aneurysm and lysis of the nerve, his symptoms were alleviated. Review of the literature reveals an association between venous disease and tarsal tunnel syndrome; however, this report represents the first case of venous aneurysm causing symptomatic compression of the nerve.

  15. Posture and posterior crossbite in oral and nasal breathing children.

    PubMed

    Costa, Jecilene Rosana; Pereira, Silvia Regina Amorim; Pignatari, Shirley S N; Weckx, Luc Louis Maurice

    2010-01-01

    The most known etiologic factors of oral breathing may influence the craniofacial development leading to anatomical and functional alterations. A proper head and cervical spine posture allows a well functioning of the stomatognathic system structures and vice versa. This study was conducted to evaluate the prevalence of posterior crossbite in a group of oral breathing children (OB) and nasal (NB) and associate the type of bite with the head and cervical spine posture. It was concluded that most of the children, either oral or nasal breathers, did not present a crossbite and any kind of head posture and cervical spine can vary independently of a posterior crossbite.

  16. Posterior dislocation of the sternoclavicular joint: report of two cases.

    PubMed

    Labronici, Pedro José; Souza, Fabrício Cardoso de; Pires, Robinson Esteves Santos; Santos Filho, Fernando Claudino Dos; Gameiro, Vinicius Schott; Labronici, Gustavo José

    2016-01-01

    The authors report the cases of two young patients who had suffered a sporting accident with posterior traumatic dislocation of sternoclavicular joint. In one of the patients closed reduction was accomplished by keeping the limb in a sling. The second patient, after reduction was done, presented recurrence of the dislocation, thus requiring surgical treatment. It is important to observe the relevance of computed tomography to help diagnosing, as well as monitoring the reduction procedure. The objective of this study was to demonstrate two different types of treatment in a rare injury such as the posterior dislocation of sternoclavicular joint.

  17. Posterior shoulder dislocation while lifting weights: a missed diagnosis

    PubMed Central

    Cuffolo, Giulio; Coomber, Ross; Burtt, Simon; Gray, Jim

    2014-01-01

    Summary We present a case of a 24-year-old man who suffered acute shoulder pain and subsequent inability to move his arm while lifting weights in the bench-press position. He attended A&E where he was examined and X-rays were performed. He was diagnosed with presumed pectoralis major tendon rupture and was discharged to fracture clinic the following day with analgesia. On review in clinic he was found to have a posterior shoulder dislocation and was taken to theatre for relocation under anaesthesia. This case report examines the mechanism, investigations and management of posterior shoulder dislocation. PMID:24557475

  18. Management of Posterior Reversible Syndrome in Preeclamptic Women

    PubMed Central

    Poma, S.; Delmonte, M. P.; Gigliuto, C.; Imberti, R.; Delmonte, M.; Arossa, A.; Iotti, G. A.

    2014-01-01

    Posterior reversible encephalopathy syndrome (PRES) is a neurological syndrome associated with a number of conditions including preeclampsia. It is characterized by seizures, alteration of consciousness, visual disturbances, and symmetric white matter abnormalities, typically in the posterior parietooccipital regions of the cerebral hemispheres, at computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MRI). We report three new cases of PRES in preeclamptic patients and describe the management of these patients. We present a brief review of other cases in the literature, with particular attention to the anesthetic management. PMID:25506009

  19. Spectral domain optical coherence tomography finding in posterior microphthalmos.

    PubMed

    Kumar, Mukesh; Das, Taraprasad; Kesarwani, Siddharth

    2012-11-01

    An eight-year-old boy presented with decreased vision in both eyes. At presentation, the visual acuity was 6/60 in both eyes with high plus spheres. Anterior segment examination was normal. Fundus examination and spectral domain optical coherence tomography were consistent with posterior microphthalmos and showed an elevated foveal contour and fold in the outer plexiform layer. External limiting membrane, photoreceptor and retinal pigment epithelium were not involved in the fold. To the best of our knowledge this is the first such case report with optical coherence tomography imaging of the retinal layer involved in a case of posterior microphthalmos.

  20. Recanalization of an occluded popliteal artery following posterior knee dislocation.

    PubMed

    Kirby, L; Abbas, J; Brophy, C

    1999-11-01

    Posterior knee dislocation results in popliteal artery injury in up to one-third of cases. Prompt recognition and treatment of arterial injury is essential for limb salvage. We report a case of complete occlusion of the popliteal artery following posterior knee dislocation treated with saphenous vein bypass without exclusion of the injured arterial segment. Follow-up duplex scanning demonstrated a patent vein graft and a patent ipsilateral popliteal artery. This report suggests that, in some instances, a traumatically occluded popliteal artery may recanalize, and that revascularization with a bypass graft may be the preferred method of repair, particularly in young patients.

  1. Bilateral epididymitis in a child with undiagnosed posterior urethral valves.

    PubMed

    Kwong, Justin; Lorenzo, Armando J; DeMaria, Jorge; Braga, Luis H P

    2013-07-01

    Posterior urethral valves are most commonly detected in the early neonatal period, the diagnosis often antenatally suspected from ultrasound findings. Nevertheless, some cases might go undetected and become manifest later in life with lower urinary tract symptoms. We describe the unusual case of a 5-year-old boy with a 2-month history of bladder distension, urinary dribbling, and epididymitis. Cystourethrography revealed posterior urethral valves with reflux into the seminal vesicles, vas deferens, and epididymis, bilaterally. A review of the published data is provided in the context of this unusual presentation pattern.

  2. Double triangular resection for a widely prolapsed posterior mitral leaflet†

    PubMed Central

    Sawazaki, Masaru; Tomari, Shiro; Tsunekawa, Tomohiro; Izawa, Naoto

    2013-01-01

    A wide and redundant prolapse of the posterior mitral leaflet in active infective endocarditis cannot be easily repaired. A sliding plasty can be attempted, but the range of annular plication is often too large. Chordal replacement is another option, but is prone to long-term degeneration because the redundant leaflet still exists. Here, we describe a simple resection technique that utilizes only two small triangular resections. The resections are sutured with no need to shorten the annulus. The leaflet tissue between the two triangular resections must be preserved to make an appropriately shaped posterior leaflet. PMID:23223672

  3. Recurrent Massive Epistaxis from an Anomalous Posterior Ethmoid Artery

    PubMed Central

    Mattioli, Francesco; Alberici, Maria Paola; Presutti, Livio

    2016-01-01

    A 50-year-old man, with no previous history of epistaxis, was hospitalized at our facility for left recurrent posterior epistaxis. The patient underwent surgical treatment three times and only the operator's experience and radiological support (cranial angiography) allowed us to control the epistaxis and stop the bleeding. The difficult bleeding management and control was attributed to an abnormal course of the left posterior ethmoidal artery. When bleeding seems to come from the roof of the nasal cavity, it is important to identify the ethmoid arteries always bearing in mind the possible existence of anomalous courses. PMID:28025632

  4. Characteristic length of the knotting probability revisited

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Uehara, Erica; Deguchi, Tetsuo

    2015-09-01

    We present a self-avoiding polygon (SAP) model for circular DNA in which the radius of impermeable cylindrical segments corresponds to the screening length of double-stranded DNA surrounded by counter ions. For the model we evaluate the probability for a generated SAP with N segments having a given knot K through simulation. We call it the knotting probability of a knot K with N segments for the SAP model. We show that when N is large the most significant factor in the knotting probability is given by the exponentially decaying part exp(-N/NK), where the estimates of parameter NK are consistent with the same value for all the different knots we investigated. We thus call it the characteristic length of the knotting probability. We give formulae expressing the characteristic length as a function of the cylindrical radius rex, i.e. the screening length of double-stranded DNA.

  5. Transition Probability and the ESR Experiment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McBrierty, Vincent J.

    1974-01-01

    Discusses the use of a modified electron spin resonance apparatus to demonstrate some features of the expression for the transition probability per second between two energy levels. Applications to the third year laboratory program are suggested. (CC)

  6. Inclusion probability with dropout: an operational formula.

    PubMed

    Milot, E; Courteau, J; Crispino, F; Mailly, F

    2015-05-01

    In forensic genetics, a mixture of two or more contributors to a DNA profile is often interpreted using the inclusion probabilities theory. In this paper, we present a general formula for estimating the probability of inclusion (PI, also known as the RMNE probability) from a subset of visible alleles when dropouts are possible. This one-locus formula can easily be extended to multiple loci using the cumulative probability of inclusion. We show that an exact formulation requires fixing the number of contributors, hence to slightly modify the classic interpretation of the PI. We discuss the implications of our results for the enduring debate over the use of PI vs likelihood ratio approaches within the context of low template amplifications.

  7. The low synaptic release probability in vivo.

    PubMed

    Borst, J Gerard G

    2010-06-01

    The release probability, the average probability that an active zone of a presynaptic terminal releases one or more vesicles following an action potential, is tightly regulated. Measurements in cultured neurons or in slices indicate that this probability can vary greatly between synapses, but on average it is estimated to be as high as 0.5. In vivo, however, the size of synaptic potentials is relatively independent of recent history, suggesting that release probability is much lower. Possible causes for this discrepancy include maturational differences, a higher spontaneous activity, a lower extracellular calcium concentration and more prominent tonic inhibition by ambient neurotransmitters during in vivo recordings. Existing evidence thus suggests that under physiological conditions in vivo, presynaptic action potentials trigger the release of neurotransmitter much less frequently than what is observed in in vitro preparations.

  8. Classical and Quantum Spreading of Position Probability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Farina, J. E. G.

    1977-01-01

    Demonstrates that the standard deviation of the position probability of a particle moving freely in one dimension is a function of the standard deviation of its velocity distribution and time in classical or quantum mechanics. (SL)

  9. On Convergent Probability of a Random Walk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Y.-F.; Ching, W.-K.

    2006-01-01

    This note introduces an interesting random walk on a straight path with cards of random numbers. The method of recurrent relations is used to obtain the convergent probability of the random walk with different initial positions.

  10. Accurate pointing of tungsten welding electrodes

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ziegelmeier, P.

    1971-01-01

    Thoriated-tungsten is pointed accurately and quickly by using sodium nitrite. Point produced is smooth and no effort is necessary to hold the tungsten rod concentric. The chemically produced point can be used several times longer than ground points. This method reduces time and cost of preparing tungsten electrodes.

  11. Robust satisficing and the probability of survival

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben-Haim, Yakov

    2014-01-01

    Concepts of robustness are sometimes employed when decisions under uncertainty are made without probabilistic information. We present a theorem that establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for non-probabilistic robustness to be equivalent to the probability of satisfying the specified outcome requirements. When this holds, probability is enhanced (or maximised) by enhancing (or maximising) robustness. Two further theorems establish important special cases. These theorems have implications for success or survival under uncertainty. Applications to foraging and finance are discussed.

  12. Probability, clinical decision making and hypothesis testing

    PubMed Central

    Banerjee, A.; Jadhav, S. L.; Bhawalkar, J. S.

    2009-01-01

    Few clinicians grasp the true concept of probability expressed in the ‘P value.’ For most, a statistically significant P value is the end of the search for truth. In fact, the opposite is the case. The present paper attempts to put the P value in proper perspective by explaining different types of probabilities, their role in clinical decision making, medical research and hypothesis testing. PMID:21234167

  13. Grounding quantum probability in psychological mechanism.

    PubMed

    Love, Bradley C

    2013-06-01

    Pothos & Busemeyer (P&B) provide a compelling case that quantum probability (QP) theory is a better match to human judgment than is classical probability (CP) theory. However, any theory (QP, CP, or other) phrased solely at the computational level runs the risk of being underconstrained. One suggestion is to ground QP accounts in mechanism, to leverage a wide range of process-level data.

  14. A Manual for Encoding Probability Distributions.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1978-09-01

    summary of the most significant information contained in the report. If the report contains a significant bibliography or literature survey, mention it...probability distri- bution. Some terms in the literature that are used synonymously to Encoding: Assessment, Assignment (used for single events in this...sessions conducted as parts of practical decision analyses as well as on experimental evidence in the literature . Probability encoding can be applied

  15. Imprecise Probability Methods for Weapons UQ

    SciTech Connect

    Picard, Richard Roy; Vander Wiel, Scott Alan

    2016-05-13

    Building on recent work in uncertainty quanti cation, we examine the use of imprecise probability methods to better characterize expert knowledge and to improve on misleading aspects of Bayesian analysis with informative prior distributions. Quantitative approaches to incorporate uncertainties in weapons certi cation are subject to rigorous external peer review, and in this regard, certain imprecise probability methods are well established in the literature and attractive. These methods are illustrated using experimental data from LANL detonator impact testing.

  16. Probability distribution of the vacuum energy density

    SciTech Connect

    Duplancic, Goran; Stefancic, Hrvoje; Glavan, Drazen

    2010-12-15

    As the vacuum state of a quantum field is not an eigenstate of the Hamiltonian density, the vacuum energy density can be represented as a random variable. We present an analytical calculation of the probability distribution of the vacuum energy density for real and complex massless scalar fields in Minkowski space. The obtained probability distributions are broad and the vacuum expectation value of the Hamiltonian density is not fully representative of the vacuum energy density.

  17. When probability trees don't work

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chan, K. C.; Lenard, C. T.; Mills, T. M.

    2016-08-01

    Tree diagrams arise naturally in courses on probability at high school or university, even at an elementary level. Often they are used to depict outcomes and associated probabilities from a sequence of games. A subtle issue is whether or not the Markov condition holds in the sequence of games. We present two examples that illustrate the importance of this issue. Suggestions as to how these examples may be used in a classroom are offered.

  18. Site occupancy models with heterogeneous detection probabilities

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Royle, J. Andrew

    2006-01-01

    Models for estimating the probability of occurrence of a species in the presence of imperfect detection are important in many ecological disciplines. In these ?site occupancy? models, the possibility of heterogeneity in detection probabilities among sites must be considered because variation in abundance (and other factors) among sampled sites induces variation in detection probability (p). In this article, I develop occurrence probability models that allow for heterogeneous detection probabilities by considering several common classes of mixture distributions for p. For any mixing distribution, the likelihood has the general form of a zero-inflated binomial mixture for which inference based upon integrated likelihood is straightforward. A recent paper by Link (2003, Biometrics 59, 1123?1130) demonstrates that in closed population models used for estimating population size, different classes of mixture distributions are indistinguishable from data, yet can produce very different inferences about population size. I demonstrate that this problem can also arise in models for estimating site occupancy in the presence of heterogeneous detection probabilities. The implications of this are discussed in the context of an application to avian survey data and the development of animal monitoring programs.

  19. Posterior Trans-Dural Repair of Iatrogenic Spinal Cord Herniation after Resection of Ossification of Posterior Longitudinal Ligament

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Hong-Ki; Kim, Ki-Jeong; Jahng, Tae-Ahn; Kim, Hyun-Jib

    2016-01-01

    Iatrogenic spinal cord herniation is a rare complication following spinal surgery. We introduce a posterior trans-dural repair technique used in a case of thoracic spinal cord herniation through a ventral dural defect following resection of ossification of the posterior longitudinal ligament (OPLL) in the cervicothoracic spine. A 51-year-old female was suffering from paraplegia after laminectomy alone for cervicothoracic OPLL. Magnetic resonance imaging revealed a severely compressed spinal cord with pseudomeningocele identified postoperatively. Cerebrospinal fluid leak and iatrogenic spinal cord herniation persisted despite several operations with duroplasty and sealing agent. Finally, the problems were treated by repair of the ventral dural defect with posterior trans-dural duroplasty. Several months after surgery, the patient could walk independently. This surgical technique can be applied to treat ventral dural defect and spinal cord herniation. PMID:27114779

  20. Neural dynamics of reward probability coding: a Magnetoencephalographic study in humans.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Julie; Vanni-Mercier, Giovanna; Dreher, Jean-Claude

    2013-01-01

    Prediction of future rewards and discrepancy between actual and expected outcomes (prediction error) are crucial signals for adaptive behavior. In humans, a number of fMRI studies demonstrated that reward probability modulates these two signals in a large brain network. Yet, the spatio-temporal dynamics underlying the neural coding of reward probability remains unknown. Here, using magnetoencephalography, we investigated the neural dynamics of prediction and reward prediction error computations while subjects learned to associate cues of slot machines with monetary rewards with different probabilities. We showed that event-related magnetic fields (ERFs) arising from the visual cortex coded the expected reward value 155 ms after the cue, demonstrating that reward value signals emerge early in the visual stream. Moreover, a prediction error was reflected in ERF peaking 300 ms after the rewarded outcome and showing decreasing amplitude with higher reward probability. This prediction error signal was generated in a network including the anterior and posterior cingulate cortex. These findings pinpoint the spatio-temporal characteristics underlying reward probability coding. Together, our results provide insights into the neural dynamics underlying the ability to learn probabilistic stimuli-reward contingencies.

  1. Feedback about More Accurate versus Less Accurate Trials: Differential Effects on Self-Confidence and Activation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badami, Rokhsareh; VaezMousavi, Mohammad; Wulf, Gabriele; Namazizadeh, Mahdi

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of the present study was to examine whether self-confidence or anxiety would be differentially affected by feedback from more accurate rather than less accurate trials. The second purpose was to determine whether arousal variations (activation) would predict performance. On Day 1, participants performed a golf putting task under one of…

  2. Tsunami probability in the Caribbean Region

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Parsons, T.; Geist, E.L.

    2008-01-01

    We calculated tsunami runup probability (in excess of 0.5 m) at coastal sites throughout the Caribbean region. We applied a Poissonian probability model because of the variety of uncorrelated tsunami sources in the region. Coastlines were discretized into 20 km by 20 km cells, and the mean tsunami runup rate was determined for each cell. The remarkable ???500-year empirical record compiled by O'Loughlin and Lander (2003) was used to calculate an empirical tsunami probability map, the first of three constructed for this study. However, it is unclear whether the 500-year record is complete, so we conducted a seismic moment-balance exercise using a finite-element model of the Caribbean-North American plate boundaries and the earthquake catalog, and found that moment could be balanced if the seismic coupling coefficient is c = 0.32. Modeled moment release was therefore used to generate synthetic earthquake sequences to calculate 50 tsunami runup scenarios for 500-year periods. We made a second probability map from numerically-calculated runup rates in each cell. Differences between the first two probability maps based on empirical and numerical-modeled rates suggest that each captured different aspects of tsunami generation; the empirical model may be deficient in primary plate-boundary events, whereas numerical model rates lack backarc fault and landslide sources. We thus prepared a third probability map using Bayesian likelihood functions derived from the empirical and numerical rate models and their attendant uncertainty to weight a range of rates at each 20 km by 20 km coastal cell. Our best-estimate map gives a range of 30-year runup probability from 0 - 30% regionally. ?? irkhaueser 2008.

  3. Probability detection mechanisms and motor learning.

    PubMed

    Lungu, O V; Wächter, T; Liu, T; Willingham, D T; Ashe, J

    2004-11-01

    The automatic detection of patterns or regularities in the environment is central to certain forms of motor learning, which are largely procedural and implicit. The rules underlying the detection and use of probabilistic information in the perceptual-motor domain are largely unknown. We conducted two experiments involving a motor learning task with direct and crossed mapping of motor responses in which probabilities were present at the stimulus set level, the response set level, and at the level of stimulus-response (S-R) mapping. We manipulated only one level at a time, while controlling for the other two. The results show that probabilities were detected only when present at the S-R mapping and motor levels, but not at the perceptual one (experiment 1), unless the perceptual features have a dimensional overlap with the S-R mapping rule (experiment 2). The effects of probability detection were mostly facilitatory at the S-R mapping, both facilitatory and inhibitory at the perceptual level, and predominantly inhibitory at the response-set level. The facilitatory effects were based on learning the absolute frequencies first and transitional probabilities later (for the S-R mapping rule) or both types of information at the same time (for perceptual level), whereas the inhibitory effects were based on learning first the transitional probabilities. Our data suggest that both absolute frequencies and transitional probabilities are used in motor learning, but in different temporal orders, according to the probabilistic properties of the environment. The results support the idea that separate neural circuits may be involved in detecting absolute frequencies as compared to transitional probabilities.

  4. Posterior Predictive Assessment of Item Response Theory Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sinharay, Sandip; Johnson, Matthew S.; Stern, Hal S.

    2006-01-01

    Model checking in item response theory (IRT) is an underdeveloped area. There is no universally accepted tool for checking IRT models. The posterior predictive model-checking method is a popular Bayesian model-checking tool because it has intuitive appeal, is simple to apply, has a strong theoretical basis, and can provide graphical or numerical…

  5. Missed C1 posterior arch fracture: a case report

    PubMed Central

    Munro, Donald S

    1990-01-01

    A case of a C1 posterior arch fracture following a fall is presented. The need to perform a thorough history and examination, regardless of previous examination findings, is emphasized. This is especially true when there is a history of recent trauma. A brief discussion of the characteristics and management of C1 fractures follows. ImagesFigure 1Figure 2Figure 3

  6. Spontaneous defects between the mastoid and posterior cranial fossa.

    PubMed

    Rereddy, Shruthi K; Mattox, Douglas E

    2016-01-01

    Conclusions Spontaneous defects between the mastoid and the posterior cranial fossa are exceedingly rare. Patients with these lesions may have a lower BMI compared to those with middle cranial fossa encephaloceles, but are otherwise demographically similar. This study recommends repair via a transtemporal approach to allow for examination of the entire posterior face of the temporal bone. Objective To describe cases of spontaneous posterior cranial fossa defects. Methods This study reviewed all cases of spontaneous posterior fossa defects presenting to a tertiary referral center over the last decade and described clinical presentation, imaging, operative findings, and outcomes. We also compared these lesions to those previously reported in the literature as well as the more common spontaneous encephaloceles of the middle cranial fossa. Results This study identified five cases with a mean age of 61.4 years, female-to-male ratio of 4:1, and a mean BMI of 31. Three cases presented with spontaneous pneumocephalus, one with CSF otorrhea, and one as an incidental imaging finding. Four defects were found medial to the sigmoid sinus and one was in the lateral retrosigmoid air cells.

  7. Covering Your Posterior: Teaching Signaling Games Using Classroom Experiments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turocy, Theodore L.

    2009-01-01

    The author describes a protocol for classroom experiments for courses that introduce undergraduates to signaling games. Signaling games are conceptually difficult because, when analyzing the game, students are not naturally inclined to think in probabilistic, Bayesian terms. The experimental design explicitly presents the posterior frequencies of…

  8. Atrial natriuretic factor-like activity in rat posterior pituitary

    SciTech Connect

    Gutkowska, J.; Debinski, W.; Racz, K.; Thibault, G.; Garcia, R.; Kuchel, O.; Genest, J.; Cantin, M.

    1986-03-05

    The presence of a biologically active peptide: Atrial Natriuretic Factor (ANF) has been demonstrated in rat and human circulation and ANF is considered now as a new hormone. ANF may be involved in body fluid regulation. A very sensitive radioimmunoassay for rat ANF allowed the authors to search for immunoreactive ANF (IR-ANF) in rat posterior pituitary. Serial dilutions of homogenates of rat posterior pituitary showed a good parallelism with a reference curve in a radioimmunoassay system. The IR-ANF was extracted from rat posterior pituitary homogenates by activated Vycor glass beads. The lyophilized extract was purified by HPLC on C/sub 18/ ..mu.. Bondapak column. The HPLC yielded two IR-ANF peaks. Both isolated ANF-like material showed biological activity. The IR-ANF eluted with 33% acetonitrile, inhibited ACTH-stimulated aldosterone secretion with a similar potency as synthetic (Arg 101 - Tyr 126) ANF (0.7 x 10/sup -10/M). A much less potent ANF-like material was found in the second peak eluted with 36% acetonitrile. They conclude that ANF-like material is present in rat posterior pituitary and this suggest a possible role in ANF on AVP secretion directly in situ.

  9. The posterior meniscofemoral ligament: morphologic study and anatomic classification.

    PubMed

    Han, Seung-Ho; Kim, Deog-Im; Choi, Seung-Gyu; Lee, Jun-Hee; Kim, Yi-Suk

    2012-07-01

    The meniscofemoral ligaments (MFLs) run from the medial femoral condyle to the posterior horn of the lateral meniscus and consist of anterior MFL (aMFL) and/or posterior MFL (pMFL) components according to whether it passes anterior or posterior to the posterior cruciate ligament (PCL). The purpose of this study was to analyze the incidence and morphologic features of the MFLs in Koreans and formulate an anatomic classification system of MFLs to aid the detailed interpretation of medical imaging or biomechanical data. One hundred knees from 52 cadavers were studied. Eighty-seven knees had pMFLs, whereas an aMFL was only found in one knee from a male cadaver. The pMFLs and PCLs were longer in males than in females (P < 0.05). The most common type of MFL was the high crossing of a typical pMFL against the PCL in both genders. Regarding other types, the incidence of absent pMFLs was higher in males than in females and the oblique bundle of the PCL was easily confused with the pMFL in several cases in both genders. These results provide the basis for the classification system of the MFL and will contribute to better outcomes for evaluating the MFL and PCL when using medical imaging such as arthro-CT scan or MRI through a better understanding of the anatomy of the MFL and PCL.

  10. Roseomonas spinal epidural abscess complicating instrumented posterior lumbar interbody fusion.

    PubMed

    Maraki, Sofia; Bantouna, Vasiliki; Lianoudakis, Efstratios; Stavrakakis, Ioannis; Scoulica, Efstathia

    2013-07-01

    The first case of a spinal epidural abscess caused by Roseomonas mucosa following instrumented posterior lumbar fusion is presented. Although rare, because of its highly resistant profile, Roseomonas species should be included in the differential diagnosis of epidural abscesses in both immunocompromised and immunocompetent hosts.

  11. Distinguishing torpedo maculopathy from similar lesions of the posterior segment.

    PubMed

    Villegas, Victor M; Schwartz, Stephen G; Flynn, Harry W; Capó, Hilda; Berrocal, Audina M; Murray, Timothy G; Harbour, J William

    2014-01-01

    Torpedo maculopathy is a congenital solitary, oval-shaped lesion typically located temporal to the center of the macula. Congenital hypertrophy of the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), RPE lesions of Gardner syndrome, and other lesions can present with similar characteristics. Because of its unique clinical and imaging features, torpedo maculopathy generally can be differentiated from other posterior segment lesions.

  12. Posterior Predictive Model Checking for Multidimensionality in Item Response Theory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levy, Roy; Mislevy, Robert J.; Sinharay, Sandip

    2009-01-01

    If data exhibit multidimensionality, key conditional independence assumptions of unidimensional models do not hold. The current work pursues posterior predictive model checking, a flexible family of model-checking procedures, as a tool for criticizing models due to unaccounted for dimensions in the context of item response theory. Factors…

  13. Trypan blue-assisted posterior capsulorhexis in pediatric cataract surgery

    PubMed Central

    Lotfy, Ayman; Abdelrahman, Ayman

    2017-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the safety and efficacy of staining the posterior capsule with trypan blue during capsulorhexis in pediatric cataract surgery. Patients and methods This was a prospective randomized comparative study carried out at Alpha Vision Center, Zagazig, Egypt. This study included 2 groups of children with pediatric cataract randomly allocated to undergo irrigation and aspiration. In the trypan group, which included 11 eyes, trypan blue was used to stain the posterior capsule during posterior capsulorhexis. In the control group, which included 10 eyes, no staining was performed. All surgeries were performed by the same surgeon. The 2 groups were compared for criteria such as completion of capsulorhexis, disruption of vitreous face and in-the-bag intraocular lens implantation. Results This study included 21 eyes of 16 patients (age range: 6 months–4 years). A statistically significant difference was observed for the following parameters between the 2 groups: capsulorhexis completion (P=0.04), vitreous face disruption (P=0.01) and in-the-bag intraocular lens implantation (P=0.022). Conclusion This study suggests that staining of the posterior capsule during capsulorhexis in pediatric cataract operation gives better results than capsulorhexis without staining. The stain changes the capsule texture making capsulorhexis easier with fewer complications. PMID:28182152

  14. Tibialis posterior tendon rupture: a cause of rheumatoid flat foot.

    PubMed

    Downey, D J; Simkin, P A; Mack, L A; Richardson, M L; Kilcoyne, R F; Hansen, S T

    1988-03-01

    Flat foot, a major cause of foot pain and disability, may result from rupture of the tibialis posterior tendon. We describe 2 patients with rheumatoid arthritis who developed flat feet secondary to surgically confirmed tendon rupture, and we discuss the anatomy and diagnosis of this condition. In the second patient, we also present the results of tendon imaging with both magnetic resonance and ultrasound.

  15. Posterior crossbite and temporomandibular disorders (TMDs): need for orthodontic treatment?

    PubMed

    Thilander, Birgit; Bjerklin, Krister

    2012-12-01

    The aim of this work was to update the bibliography regarding the concept of 'temporomandibular disorder (TMD)' and 'posterior crossbite' and try to find out if there is any association between some special signs/symptoms of TMD and type of posterior crossbite. A literature search from 1970 to 2009, due to specified criterion, resulted in 14 publications that were found to be relevant for the present systematic review. An association between TMD and posterior crossbite (Yes-group) was reported as often as absence of such a relationship (No-group). The samples in the two groups showed similarities as well as differences with respect to number, gender, and age. Most articles reported only on 'presence' or 'absence' of crossbite and only few on type of crossbite opposite to a thorough account of clinical signs and symptoms of TMD. This review seems, however, to state that a functional posterior crossbite (mandibular guidance with midline deviation) is associated with headache, temporomandibular joint and muscular pain, and clicking. As evident from the discussion, such type needs orthodontic treatment to rehabilitate the asymmetric muscular activity between the crossbite and non-crossbite sides and the changed condyle/temporal relationship caused by mandibular deviation. Whether this treatment also will avoid future TMD problems can be answered only after clinical follow-up studies have been performed.

  16. Tissue probability map constrained CLASSIC for increased accuracy and robustness in serial image segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Xue, Zhong; Shen, Dinggang; Wong, Stephen T. C.

    2009-02-01

    Traditional fuzzy clustering algorithms have been successfully applied in MR image segmentation for quantitative morphological analysis. However, the clustering results might be biased due to the variability of tissue intensities and anatomical structures. For example, clustering-based algorithms tend to over-segment white matter tissues of MR brain images. To solve this problem, we introduce a tissue probability map constrained clustering algorithm and apply it to serialMR brain image segmentation for longitudinal study of human brains. The tissue probability maps consist of segmentation priors obtained from a population and reflect the probability of different tissue types. More accurate image segmentation can be achieved by using these segmentation priors in the clustering algorithm. Experimental results of both simulated longitudinal MR brain data and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) data using the new serial image segmentation algorithm in the framework of CLASSIC show more accurate and robust longitudinal measures.

  17. Orientation Probability and Spatial Exogenous Cuing Improve Perceptual Precision and Response Speed by Different Mechanisms

    PubMed Central

    Jabar, Syaheed B.; Anderson, Britt

    2017-01-01

    We are faster and more accurate at detecting frequently occurring objects than infrequent ones, just as we are faster and more accurate at detecting objects that have been spatially cued. Does this behavioral similarity reflect similar processes? To evaluate this question we manipulated orientation probability and exogenous spatial cuing within a single perceptual estimation task. Both increased target probability and spatial cuing led to shorter response initiation times and more precise perceptual reports, but these effects were additive. Further, target probability changed the shape of the distribution of errors while spatial cuing did not. Different routes and independent mechanisms could lead to changes in behavioral measures that look similar to each other and to ‘attentional’ effects. PMID:28228744

  18. Accurate Guitar Tuning by Cochlear Implant Musicians

    PubMed Central

    Lu, Thomas; Huang, Juan; Zeng, Fan-Gang

    2014-01-01

    Modern cochlear implant (CI) users understand speech but find difficulty in music appreciation due to poor pitch perception. Still, some deaf musicians continue to perform with their CI. Here we show unexpected results that CI musicians can reliably tune a guitar by CI alone and, under controlled conditions, match simultaneously presented tones to <0.5 Hz. One subject had normal contralateral hearing and produced more accurate tuning with CI than his normal ear. To understand these counterintuitive findings, we presented tones sequentially and found that tuning error was larger at ∼30 Hz for both subjects. A third subject, a non-musician CI user with normal contralateral hearing, showed similar trends in performance between CI and normal hearing ears but with less precision. This difference, along with electric analysis, showed that accurate tuning was achieved by listening to beats rather than discriminating pitch, effectively turning a spectral task into a temporal discrimination task. PMID:24651081

  19. New model accurately predicts reformate composition

    SciTech Connect

    Ancheyta-Juarez, J.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E. )

    1994-01-31

    Although naphtha reforming is a well-known process, the evolution of catalyst formulation, as well as new trends in gasoline specifications, have led to rapid evolution of the process, including: reactor design, regeneration mode, and operating conditions. Mathematical modeling of the reforming process is an increasingly important tool. It is fundamental to the proper design of new reactors and revamp of existing ones. Modeling can be used to optimize operating conditions, analyze the effects of process variables, and enhance unit performance. Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo has developed a model of the catalytic reforming process that accurately predicts reformate composition at the higher-severity conditions at which new reformers are being designed. The new AA model is more accurate than previous proposals because it takes into account the effects of temperature and pressure on the rate constants of each chemical reaction.

  20. Accurate colorimetric feedback for RGB LED clusters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man, Kwong; Ashdown, Ian

    2006-08-01

    We present an empirical model of LED emission spectra that is applicable to both InGaN and AlInGaP high-flux LEDs, and which accurately predicts their relative spectral power distributions over a wide range of LED junction temperatures. We further demonstrate with laboratory measurements that changes in LED spectral power distribution with temperature can be accurately predicted with first- or second-order equations. This provides the basis for a real-time colorimetric feedback system for RGB LED clusters that can maintain the chromaticity of white light at constant intensity to within +/-0.003 Δuv over a range of 45 degrees Celsius, and to within 0.01 Δuv when dimmed over an intensity range of 10:1.

  1. Accurate guitar tuning by cochlear implant musicians.

    PubMed

    Lu, Thomas; Huang, Juan; Zeng, Fan-Gang

    2014-01-01

    Modern cochlear implant (CI) users understand speech but find difficulty in music appreciation due to poor pitch perception. Still, some deaf musicians continue to perform with their CI. Here we show unexpected results that CI musicians can reliably tune a guitar by CI alone and, under controlled conditions, match simultaneously presented tones to <0.5 Hz. One subject had normal contralateral hearing and produced more accurate tuning with CI than his normal ear. To understand these counterintuitive findings, we presented tones sequentially and found that tuning error was larger at ∼ 30 Hz for both subjects. A third subject, a non-musician CI user with normal contralateral hearing, showed similar trends in performance between CI and normal hearing ears but with less precision. This difference, along with electric analysis, showed that accurate tuning was achieved by listening to beats rather than discriminating pitch, effectively turning a spectral task into a temporal discrimination task.

  2. Fast Bayesian approach for modal identification using free vibration data, Part I - Most probable value

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Feng-Liang; Ni, Yan-Chun; Au, Siu-Kui; Lam, Heung-Fai

    2016-03-01

    The identification of modal properties from field testing of civil engineering structures is becoming economically viable, thanks to the advent of modern sensor and data acquisition technology. Its demand is driven by innovative structural designs and increased performance requirements of dynamic-prone structures that call for a close cross-checking or monitoring of their dynamic properties and responses. Existing instrumentation capabilities and modal identification techniques allow structures to be tested under free vibration, forced vibration (known input) or ambient vibration (unknown broadband loading). These tests can be considered complementary rather than competing as they are based on different modeling assumptions in the identification model and have different implications on costs and benefits. Uncertainty arises naturally in the dynamic testing of structures due to measurement noise, sensor alignment error, modeling error, etc. This is especially relevant in field vibration tests because the test condition in the field environment can hardly be controlled. In this work, a Bayesian statistical approach is developed for modal identification using the free vibration response of structures. A frequency domain formulation is proposed that makes statistical inference based on the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) of the data in a selected frequency band. This significantly simplifies the identification model because only the modes dominating the frequency band need to be included. It also legitimately ignores the information in the excluded frequency bands that are either irrelevant or difficult to model, thereby significantly reducing modeling error risk. The posterior probability density function (PDF) of the modal parameters is derived rigorously from modeling assumptions and Bayesian probability logic. Computational difficulties associated with calculating the posterior statistics, including the most probable value (MPV) and the posterior covariance matrix

  3. An Accurate, Simplified Model Intrabeam Scattering

    SciTech Connect

    Bane, Karl LF

    2002-05-23

    Beginning with the general Bjorken-Mtingwa solution for intrabeam scattering (IBS) we derive an accurate, greatly simplified model of IBS, valid for high energy beams in normal storage ring lattices. In addition, we show that, under the same conditions, a modified version of Piwinski's IBS formulation (where {eta}{sub x,y}{sup 2}/{beta}{sub x,y} has been replaced by {Eta}{sub x,y}) asymptotically approaches the result of Bjorken-Mtingwa.

  4. An accurate registration technique for distorted images

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Delapena, Michele; Shaw, Richard A.; Linde, Peter; Dravins, Dainis

    1990-01-01

    Accurate registration of International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) images is crucial because the variability of the geometrical distortions that are introduced by the SEC-Vidicon cameras ensures that raw science images are never perfectly aligned with the Intensity Transfer Functions (ITFs) (i.e., graded floodlamp exposures that are used to linearize and normalize the camera response). A technique for precisely registering IUE images which uses a cross correlation of the fixed pattern that exists in all raw IUE images is described.

  5. On accurate determination of contact angle

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Concus, P.; Finn, R.

    1992-01-01

    Methods are proposed that exploit a microgravity environment to obtain highly accurate measurement of contact angle. These methods, which are based on our earlier mathematical results, do not require detailed measurement of a liquid free-surface, as they incorporate discontinuous or nearly-discontinuous behavior of the liquid bulk in certain container geometries. Physical testing is planned in the forthcoming IML-2 space flight and in related preparatory ground-based experiments.

  6. Minimal entropy probability paths between genome families.

    PubMed

    Ahlbrandt, Calvin; Benson, Gary; Casey, William

    2004-05-01

    We develop a metric for probability distributions with applications to biological sequence analysis. Our distance metric is obtained by minimizing a functional defined on the class of paths over probability measures on N categories. The underlying mathematical theory is connected to a constrained problem in the calculus of variations. The solution presented is a numerical solution, which approximates the true solution in a set of cases called rich paths where none of the components of the path is zero. The functional to be minimized is motivated by entropy considerations, reflecting the idea that nature might efficiently carry out mutations of genome sequences in such a way that the increase in entropy involved in transformation is as small as possible. We characterize sequences by frequency profiles or probability vectors, in the case of DNA where N is 4 and the components of the probability vector are the frequency of occurrence of each of the bases A, C, G and T. Given two probability vectors a and b, we define a distance function based as the infimum of path integrals of the entropy function H( p) over all admissible paths p(t), 0 < or = t< or =1, with p(t) a probability vector such that p(0)=a and p(1)=b. If the probability paths p(t) are parameterized as y(s) in terms of arc length s and the optimal path is smooth with arc length L, then smooth and "rich" optimal probability paths may be numerically estimated by a hybrid method of iterating Newton's method on solutions of a two point boundary value problem, with unknown distance L between the abscissas, for the Euler-Lagrange equations resulting from a multiplier rule for the constrained optimization problem together with linear regression to improve the arc length estimate L. Matlab code for these numerical methods is provided which works only for "rich" optimal probability vectors. These methods motivate a definition of an elementary distance function which is easier and faster to calculate, works on non

  7. The neural correlates of subjective utility of monetary outcome and probability weight in economic and in motor decision under risk.

    PubMed

    Wu, Shih-Wei; Delgado, Mauricio R; Maloney, Laurence T

    2011-06-15

    In decision under risk, people choose between lotteries that contain a list of potential outcomes paired with their probabilities of occurrence. We previously developed a method for translating such lotteries to mathematically equivalent "motor lotteries." The probability of each outcome in a motor lottery is determined by the subject's noise in executing a movement. In this study, we used functional magnetic resonance imaging in humans to compare the neural correlates of monetary outcome and probability in classical lottery tasks in which information about probability was explicitly communicated to the subjects and in mathematically equivalent motor lottery tasks in which probability was implicit in the subjects' own motor noise. We found that activity in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and the posterior cingulate cortex quantitatively represent the subjective utility of monetary outcome in both tasks. For probability, we found that the mPFC significantly tracked the distortion of such information in both tasks. Specifically, activity in mPFC represents probability information but not the physical properties of the stimuli correlated with this information. Together, the results demonstrate that mPFC represents probability from two distinct forms of decision under risk.

  8. Causal inference, probability theory, and graphical insights.

    PubMed

    Baker, Stuart G

    2013-11-10

    Causal inference from observational studies is a fundamental topic in biostatistics. The causal graph literature typically views probability theory as insufficient to express causal concepts in observational studies. In contrast, the view here is that probability theory is a desirable and sufficient basis for many topics in causal inference for the following two reasons. First, probability theory is generally more flexible than causal graphs: Besides explaining such causal graph topics as M-bias (adjusting for a collider) and bias amplification and attenuation (when adjusting for instrumental variable), probability theory is also the foundation of the paired availability design for historical controls, which does not fit into a causal graph framework. Second, probability theory is the basis for insightful graphical displays including the BK-Plot for understanding Simpson's paradox with a binary confounder, the BK2-Plot for understanding bias amplification and attenuation in the presence of an unobserved binary confounder, and the PAD-Plot for understanding the principal stratification component of the paired availability design.

  9. Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Holliday, James R.; Graves, William R.; Rundle, John B.; Turcotte, Donald L.

    2016-03-01

    Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.

  10. The role of probabilities in physics.

    PubMed

    Le Bellac, Michel

    2012-09-01

    Although modern physics was born in the XVIIth century as a fully deterministic theory in the form of Newtonian mechanics, the use of probabilistic arguments turned out later on to be unavoidable. Three main situations can be distinguished. (1) When the number of degrees of freedom is very large, on the order of Avogadro's number, a detailed dynamical description is not possible, and in fact not useful: we do not care about the velocity of a particular molecule in a gas, all we need is the probability distribution of the velocities. This statistical description introduced by Maxwell and Boltzmann allows us to recover equilibrium thermodynamics, gives a microscopic interpretation of entropy and underlies our understanding of irreversibility. (2) Even when the number of degrees of freedom is small (but larger than three) sensitivity to initial conditions of chaotic dynamics makes determinism irrelevant in practice, because we cannot control the initial conditions with infinite accuracy. Although die tossing is in principle predictable, the approach to chaotic dynamics in some limit implies that our ignorance of initial conditions is translated into a probabilistic description: each face comes up with probability 1/6. (3) As is well-known, quantum mechanics is incompatible with determinism. However, quantum probabilities differ in an essential way from the probabilities introduced previously: it has been shown from the work of John Bell that quantum probabilities are intrinsic and cannot be given an ignorance interpretation based on a hypothetical deeper level of description.

  11. Anterior and posterior corneal stroma elasticity assessed using nanoindentation

    PubMed Central

    Dias, Janice; Ziebarth, Noël M.

    2013-01-01

    Corneal biomechanics is an essential parameter for developing diagnostic and treatment methods of corneal-related diseases. It is widely accepted that corneal mechanical strength stems from the stroma's collagenous composition. However, more comprehensive insight into the mechanical properties within the stroma is needed to improve current corneal diagnostic and treatment techniques. The purpose of this study was to perform elasticity characterization of anterior and posterior stromal regions of human corneas using atomic force microscopy (AFM). Nine pairs of human whole globes were placed in 20% Dextran solution, cornea side down, to restore the corneal thickness to physiological levels (400-600μm). The epithelium and Bowman's membrane were removed from all eyes. Anterior stromal AFM elasticity testing was then performed on left (OS) eyes. Additional stroma was removed from right (OD) eyes to allow posterior stromal measurements at a depth of 50% of the original thickness. All experiments were performed with corneas submerged in 15% Dextran to maintain corneal hydration. The results of the study showed that the Young's modulus of elasticity of the anterior stroma (average: 281 ± 214kPa; range: 59-764kPa) was significantly higher than that of the posterior stroma (average: 89.5 ± 46.1kPa; range: 29-179kPa) (p=0.014). In addition, a linear relationship was found between the posterior stromal elasticity and anterior stromal elasticity (p=0.0428). On average, the elasticity of the posterior stroma is 39.3% of the anterior stroma. In summary, there appears to be an elasticity gradient within the corneal stroma, which should be considered in the design and development of corneal diagnostic and treatment methods to enhance efficacy. PMID:23800511

  12. Morphofunctional Compensation of Masseter Muscles in Unilateral Posterior Crossbite Patients

    PubMed Central

    Cutroneo, G.; Vermiglio, G.; Centofanti, A.; Rizzo, G.; Runci, M.; Favaloro, A.; Piancino, M.G.; Bracco, P.; Ramieri, G.; Bianchi, F.; Speciale, F.; Arco, A.; Trimarchi, F.

    2016-01-01

    Unilateral posterior crossbite is a widespread, asymmetric malocclusion characterized by an inverse relationship of the upper and lower buccal dental cusps, in the molar and premolar regions, on one side only of the dental arch. Patients with unilateral posterior crossbite exhibit an altered chewing cycles and the crossbite side masseter results to be less active with respect to the contralateral one. Few studies about morphological features of masticatory muscle in malocclusion disorders exist and most of these have been performed on animal models. The aim of the present study was to evaluate morphological and protein expression characteristics of masseter muscles in patients affected by unilateral posterior crossbite, by histological and immunofluorescence techniques. We have used antibody against PAX-7, marker of satellite cells, and against α-, β-, γ-, δ-, ε- and ζ-sarcoglycans which are transmembrane glycoproteins involved in sarcolemma stabilization. By statistical analysis we have evaluated differences in amount of myonucley between contralateral and ipsilateral side. Results have shown: i) altered fibers morphology and atrophy of ipsilateral muscle if compared to the contralateral one; ii) higher number of myonuclei and PAX-7 positive cells in contralateral side than ipsilateral one; iii) higher pattern of fluorescence for all tested sarcoglycans in contralateral side than ipsilateral one. Results show that in unilateral posterior crossbite hypertrophic response of contralateral masseter and atrophic events in ipsilateral masseter take place; by that, in unilateral posterior crossbite malocclusion masticatory muscles modify their morphology depending on the function. That could be relevant in understanding and healing of malocclusion disorders; in fact, the altered balance about structure and function between ipsilateral and contralateral muscles could, long-term, lead and/ or worsen skeletal asymmetries. PMID:27349311

  13. Posterior Eye Shape Measurement With Retinal OCT Compared to MRI

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Anthony N.; Verkicharla, Pavan K.; McNabb, Ryan P.; Cheung, Carol Y.; Hilal, Saima; Farsiu, Sina; Chen, Christopher; Wong, Tien Y.; Ikram, M. Kamran; Cheng, Ching Y.; Young, Terri L.; Saw, Seang M.; Izatt, Joseph A.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Posterior eye shape assessment by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) is used to study myopia. We tested the hypothesis that optical coherence tomography (OCT), as an alternative, could measure posterior eye shape similarly to MRI. Methods Macular spectral-domain OCT and brain MRI images previously acquired as part of the Singapore Epidemiology of Eye Diseases study were analyzed. The right eye in the MRI and OCT images was automatically segmented. Optical coherence tomography segmentations were corrected for optical and display distortions requiring biometry data. The segmentations were fitted to spheres and ellipsoids to obtain the posterior eye radius of curvature (Rc) and asphericity (Qxz). The differences in Rc and Qxz measured by MRI and OCT were tested using paired t-tests. Categorical assignments of prolateness or oblateness using Qxz were compared. Results Fifty-two subjects (67.8 ± 5.6 years old) with spherical equivalent refraction from +0.50 to −5.38 were included. The mean paired difference between MRI and original OCT posterior eye Rc was 24.03 ± 46.49 mm (P = 0.0005). For corrected OCT images, the difference in Rc decreased to −0.23 ± 2.47 mm (P = 0.51). The difference between MRI and OCT asphericity, Qxz, was −0.052 ± 0.343 (P = 0.28). However, categorical agreement was only moderate (κ = 0.50). Conclusions Distortion-corrected OCT measurements of Rc and Qxz were not statistically significantly different from MRI, although the moderate categorical agreement suggests that individual differences remained. This study provides evidence that with distortion correction, noninvasive office-based OCT could potentially be used instead of MRI for the study of posterior eye shape. PMID:27409473

  14. [Application of terms of probability theory in embryology and teratology].

    PubMed

    Rother, P; Wendler, D; Bochmann, C

    1983-01-01

    The aim of the paper was to show that accurate morphological statements can be made with the help of simple concepts of the theory of probability. Binomial distribution was used to find out whether the number of male and female births in large families was random or whether a particular disposition to boys/girls was to be assumed. It was found that the relation was random as a rule. A second question was that of the connection between a number of simultaneous variations and deformities. After the injection of trypan blue, combined deformities were studies in rats and found to be independent of each other, i.e. all had been directly caused by trypan blue.

  15. High Frequency QRS ECG Accurately Detects Cardiomyopathy

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schlegel, Todd T.; Arenare, Brian; Poulin, Gregory; Moser, Daniel R.; Delgado, Reynolds

    2005-01-01

    High frequency (HF, 150-250 Hz) analysis over the entire QRS interval of the ECG is more sensitive than conventional ECG for detecting myocardial ischemia. However, the accuracy of HF QRS ECG for detecting cardiomyopathy is unknown. We obtained simultaneous resting conventional and HF QRS 12-lead ECGs in 66 patients with cardiomyopathy (EF = 23.2 plus or minus 6.l%, mean plus or minus SD) and in 66 age- and gender-matched healthy controls using PC-based ECG software recently developed at NASA. The single most accurate ECG parameter for detecting cardiomyopathy was an HF QRS morphological score that takes into consideration the total number and severity of reduced amplitude zones (RAZs) present plus the clustering of RAZs together in contiguous leads. This RAZ score had an area under the receiver operator curve (ROC) of 0.91, and was 88% sensitive, 82% specific and 85% accurate for identifying cardiomyopathy at optimum score cut-off of 140 points. Although conventional ECG parameters such as the QRS and QTc intervals were also significantly longer in patients than controls (P less than 0.001, BBBs excluded), these conventional parameters were less accurate (area under the ROC = 0.77 and 0.77, respectively) than HF QRS morphological parameters for identifying underlying cardiomyopathy. The total amplitude of the HF QRS complexes, as measured by summed root mean square voltages (RMSVs), also differed between patients and controls (33.8 plus or minus 11.5 vs. 41.5 plus or minus 13.6 mV, respectively, P less than 0.003), but this parameter was even less accurate in distinguishing the two groups (area under ROC = 0.67) than the HF QRS morphologic and conventional ECG parameters. Diagnostic accuracy was optimal (86%) when the RAZ score from the HF QRS ECG and the QTc interval from the conventional ECG were used simultaneously with cut-offs of greater than or equal to 40 points and greater than or equal to 445 ms, respectively. In conclusion 12-lead HF QRS ECG employing

  16. Probability, arrow of time and decoherence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bacciagaluppi, Guido

    This paper relates both to the metaphysics of probability and to the physics of time asymmetry. Using the formalism of decoherent histories, it investigates whether intuitions about intrinsic time directedness that are often associated with probability can be justified in the context of no-collapse approaches to quantum mechanics. The standard (two-vector) approach to time symmetry in the decoherent histories literature is criticised, and an alternative approach is proposed, based on two decoherence conditions ('forwards' and 'backwards') within the one-vector formalism. In turn, considerations of forwards and backwards decoherence and of decoherence and recoherence suggest that a time-directed interpretation of probabilities, if adopted, should be both contingent and perspectival.

  17. Pointwise probability reinforcements for robust statistical inference.

    PubMed

    Frénay, Benoît; Verleysen, Michel

    2014-02-01

    Statistical inference using machine learning techniques may be difficult with small datasets because of abnormally frequent data (AFDs). AFDs are observations that are much more frequent in the training sample that they should be, with respect to their theoretical probability, and include e.g. outliers. Estimates of parameters tend to be biased towards models which support such data. This paper proposes to introduce pointwise probability reinforcements (PPRs): the probability of each observation is reinforced by a PPR and a regularisation allows controlling the amount of reinforcement which compensates for AFDs. The proposed solution is very generic, since it can be used to robustify any statistical inference method which can be formulated as a likelihood maximisation. Experiments show that PPRs can be easily used to tackle regression, classification and projection: models are freed from the influence of outliers. Moreover, outliers can be filtered manually since an abnormality degree is obtained for each observation.

  18. Match probabilities in racially admixed populations.

    PubMed Central

    Lange, K

    1993-01-01

    The calculation of match probabilities is the most contentious issue dividing prosecution and defense experts in the forensic applications of DNA fingerprinting. In particular, defense experts question the applicability of the population genetic laws of Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium to racially admixed American populations. Linkage equilibrium justifies the product rule for computing match probabilities across loci. The present paper suggests a method of bounding match probabilities that depends on modeling gene descent from ancestral populations to contemporary populations under the assumptions of Hardy-Weinberg and linkage equilibrium only in the ancestral populations. Although these bounds are conservative from the defendant's perspective, they should be small enough in practice to satisfy prosecutors. PMID:8430693

  19. Local Directed Percolation Probability in Two Dimensions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Inui, Norio; Konno, Norio; Komatsu, Genichi; Kameoka, Koichi

    1998-01-01

    Using the series expansion method and Monte Carlo simulation,we study the directed percolation probability on the square lattice Vn0=\\{ (x,y) \\in {Z}2:x+y=even, 0 ≤ y ≤ n, - y ≤ x ≤ y \\}.We calculate the local percolationprobability Pnl defined as the connection probability between theorigin and a site (0,n). The critical behavior of P∞lis clearly different from the global percolation probability P∞g characterized by a critical exponent βg.An analysis based on the Padé approximants shows βl=2βg.In addition, we find that the series expansion of P2nl can be expressed as a function of Png.

  20. Posterior Capsular Opacification in Preschool- and School-Age Patients after Pediatric Cataract Surgery without Posterior Capsulotomy

    PubMed Central

    Batur, Muhammed; Gül, Adem; Seven, Erbil; Can, Ertuğrul; Yaşar, Tekin

    2016-01-01

    Objectives: We aimed to evaluate the development of posterior capsular opacification (PCO) in preschool- and school-age children with cataract who underwent cataract surgery without posterior capsulotomy and anterior vitrectomy. Materials and Methods: The records of 30 eyes of 21 patients who underwent pediatric cataract surgery and intraocular lens (IOL) implantation were retrospectively reviewed. Patients’ age, PCO status and duration, need for neodymium-doped yttrium aluminium garnet (Nd:YAG) laser treatment based on coverage of visual axis, and follow-up period were recorded. Results: The mean age of the patients was 7.6±2.83 (4-12) years. Unilateral cataract surgery and IOL implantation were performed in 12 patients (57.14%) and bilateral cataract surgery and IOL implantation were performed in nine patients (42.86%). Average follow-up time was 17.7±22.67 (3-83) months. PCO developed in 21 eyes (70%) and covered the visual axis in 15 eyes (50%), which therefore required Nd:YAG laser posterior capsulotomy. The mean duration of postoperative PCO development was 8.91±18.7 months (1 week-71 months). Conclusion: We believe that with adequately experienced surgeons, performing both cataract surgery and posterior capsulotomy with anterior vitrectomy in the same session is appropriate for selected preschool- and school-age children with cataract. PMID:28058161

  1. Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs.

    PubMed

    MacDonald, Jacqueline Anne; Small, Mitchell J; Morgan, M G

    2008-08-01

    This article reports on a study to quantify expert beliefs about the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). Some 1,976 sites at closed military bases in the United States are contaminated with UXO and are slated for cleanup, at an estimated cost of $15-140 billion. Because no available technology can guarantee 100% removal of UXO, information about explosion probability is needed to assess the residual risks of civilian reuse of closed military bases and to make decisions about how much to invest in cleanup. This study elicited probability distributions for the chance of UXO explosion from 25 experts in explosive ordnance disposal, all of whom have had field experience in UXO identification and deactivation. The study considered six different scenarios: three different types of UXO handled in two different ways (one involving children and the other involving construction workers). We also asked the experts to rank by sensitivity to explosion 20 different kinds of UXO found at a case study site at Fort Ord, California. We found that the experts do not agree about the probability of UXO explosion, with significant differences among experts in their mean estimates of explosion probabilities and in the amount of uncertainty that they express in their estimates. In three of the six scenarios, the divergence was so great that the average of all the expert probability distributions was statistically indistinguishable from a uniform (0, 1) distribution-suggesting that the sum of expert opinion provides no information at all about the explosion risk. The experts' opinions on the relative sensitivity to explosion of the 20 UXO items also diverged. The average correlation between rankings of any pair of experts was 0.41, which, statistically, is barely significant (p= 0.049) at the 95% confidence level. Thus, one expert's rankings provide little predictive information about another's rankings. The lack of consensus among experts suggests that empirical studies

  2. Exact probability distribution functions for Parrondo's games

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zadourian, Rubina; Saakian, David B.; Klümper, Andreas

    2016-12-01

    We study the discrete time dynamics of Brownian ratchet models and Parrondo's games. Using the Fourier transform, we calculate the exact probability distribution functions for both the capital dependent and history dependent Parrondo's games. In certain cases we find strong oscillations near the maximum of the probability distribution with two limiting distributions for odd and even number of rounds of the game. Indications of such oscillations first appeared in the analysis of real financial data, but now we have found this phenomenon in model systems and a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon. The method of our work can be applied to Brownian ratchets, molecular motors, and portfolio optimization.

  3. Intrinsic Probability of a Multifractal Set

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hosokawa, Iwao

    1991-12-01

    It is shown that a self-similar measure isotropically distributed in a d-dimensional set should have its own intermittency exponents equivalent to its own generalized dimensions (in the sense of Hentschel and Procaccia), and that the intermittency exponents are completely designated by an intrinsic probability which governs the spatial distribution of the measure. Based on this, it is proven that the intrinsic probability uniquely determines the spatial distribution of the scaling index α of the measure as well as the so-called f-α spectrum of the multifractal set.

  4. Atomic transition probabilities of Nd I

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stockett, M. H.; Wood, M. P.; Den Hartog, E. A.; Lawler, J. E.

    2011-12-01

    Fourier transform spectra are used to determine emission branching fractions for 236 lines of the first spectrum of neodymium (Nd i). These branching fractions are converted to absolute atomic transition probabilities using radiative lifetimes from time-resolved laser-induced fluorescence measurements (Den Hartog et al 2011 J. Phys. B: At. Mol. Opt. Phys. 44 225001). The wavelength range of the data set is from 390 to 950 nm. These transition probabilities from emission and laser measurements are compared to relative absorption measurements in order to assess the importance of unobserved infrared branches from selected upper levels.

  5. Probabilities for separating sets of order statistics.

    PubMed

    Glueck, D H; Karimpour-Fard, A; Mandel, J; Muller, K E

    2010-04-01

    Consider a set of order statistics that arise from sorting samples from two different populations, each with their own, possibly different distribution functions. The probability that these order statistics fall in disjoint, ordered intervals and that of the smallest statistics, a certain number come from the first populations is given in terms of the two distribution functions. The result is applied to computing the joint probability of the number of rejections and the number of false rejections for the Benjamini-Hochberg false discovery rate procedure.

  6. Quantum probability and quantum decision-making.

    PubMed

    Yukalov, V I; Sornette, D

    2016-01-13

    A rigorous general definition of quantum probability is given, which is valid not only for elementary events but also for composite events, for operationally testable measurements as well as for inconclusive measurements, and also for non-commuting observables in addition to commutative observables. Our proposed definition of quantum probability makes it possible to describe quantum measurements and quantum decision-making on the same common mathematical footing. Conditions are formulated for the case when quantum decision theory reduces to its classical counterpart and for the situation where the use of quantum decision theory is necessary.

  7. Steering in spin tomographic probability representation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Man'ko, V. I.; Markovich, L. A.

    2016-09-01

    The steering property known for two-qubit state in terms of specific inequalities for the correlation function is translated for the state of qudit with the spin j = 3 / 2. Since most steering detection inequalities are based on the correlation functions we introduce analogs of such functions for the single qudit systems. The tomographic probability representation for the qudit states is applied. The connection between the correlation function in the two-qubit system and the single qudit is presented in an integral form with an intertwining kernel calculated explicitly in tomographic probability terms.

  8. Determining system maintainability as a probability

    SciTech Connect

    Wright, R.E.; Atwood, C.L.

    1988-01-01

    Maintainability has often been defined in principle as the probability that a system or component can be repaired in a specific time given that it is in a failed state, but presented in practice in terms of mean-time-to-repair. In this paper, formulas are developed for maintainability as a probability, analogous to those for reliability and availability. This formulation is expressed in terms of cut sets, and leads to a natural definition of unmaintainability importance for cut sets and basic events. 6 refs.

  9. Probability in biology: overview of a comprehensive theory of probability in living systems.

    PubMed

    Nakajima, Toshiyuki

    2013-09-01

    Probability is closely related to biological organization and adaptation to the environment. Living systems need to maintain their organizational order by producing specific internal events non-randomly, and must cope with the uncertain environments. These processes involve increases in the probability of favorable events for these systems by reducing the degree of uncertainty of events. Systems with this ability will survive and reproduce more than those that have less of this ability. Probabilistic phenomena have been deeply explored using the mathematical theory of probability since Kolmogorov's axiomatization provided mathematical consistency for the theory. However, the interpretation of the concept of probability remains both unresolved and controversial, which creates problems when the mathematical theory is applied to problems in real systems. In this article, recent advances in the study of the foundations of probability from a biological viewpoint are reviewed, and a new perspective is discussed toward a comprehensive theory of probability for understanding the organization and adaptation of living systems.

  10. Probability learning and Piagetian probability conceptions in children 5 to 12 years old.

    PubMed

    Kreitler, S; Zigler, E; Kreitler, H

    1989-11-01

    This study focused on the relations between performance on a three-choice probability-learning task and conceptions of probability as outlined by Piaget concerning mixture, normal distribution, random selection, odds estimation, and permutations. The probability-learning task and four Piagetian tasks were administered randomly to 100 male and 100 female, middle SES, average IQ children in three age groups (5 to 6, 8 to 9, and 11 to 12 years old) from different schools. Half the children were from Middle Eastern backgrounds, and half were from European or American backgrounds. As predicted, developmental level of probability thinking was related to performance on the probability-learning task. The more advanced the child's probability thinking, the higher his or her level of maximization and hypothesis formulation and testing and the lower his or her level of systematically patterned responses. The results suggest that the probability-learning and Piagetian tasks assess similar cognitive skills and that performance on the probability-learning task reflects a variety of probability concepts.

  11. Objective Lightning Probability Forecasts for East-Central Florida Airports

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crawford, Winfred C.

    2013-01-01

    The forecasters at the National Weather Service in Melbourne, FL, (NWS MLB) identified a need to make more accurate lightning forecasts to help alleviate delays due to thunderstorms in the vicinity of several commercial airports in central Florida at which they are responsible for issuing terminal aerodrome forecasts. Such forecasts would also provide safer ground operations around terminals, and would be of value to Center Weather Service Units serving air traffic controllers in Florida. To improve the forecast, the AMU was tasked to develop an objective lightning probability forecast tool for the airports using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN). The resulting forecast tool is similar to that developed by the AMU to support space launch operations at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) for use by the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS) in previous tasks (Lambert and Wheeler 2005, Lambert 2007). The lightning probability forecasts are valid for the time periods and areas needed by the NWS MLB forecasters in the warm season months, defined in this task as May-September.

  12. Posterior arch C-1 screw technique: a cadaveric comparison study.

    PubMed

    Moisi, Marc; Fisahn, Christian; Tkachenko, Lara; Jeyamohan, Shiveindra; Reintjes, Stephen; Grunert, Peter; Norvell, Daniel C; Tubbs, R Shane; Page, Jeni; Newell, David W; Nora, Peter; Oskouian, Rod J; Chapman, Jens

    2017-03-17

    OBJECTIVE Posterior atlantoaxial stabilization and fusion using C-1 lateral mass screw fixation has become commonly used in the treatment of instability and for reconstructive indications since its introduction by Goel and Laheri in 1994 and modification by Harms in 2001. Placement of such lateral mass screws can be challenging because of the proximity to the spinal cord, vertebral artery, an extensive venous plexus, and the C-2 nerve root, which overlies the designated starting point on the posterior center of the lateral mass. An alternative posterior access point starting on the posterior arch of C-1 could provide a C-2 nerve root-sparing starting point for screw placement, with the potential benefit of greater directional control and simpler trajectory. The authors present a cadaveric study comparing an alternative strategy (i.e., a C-1 screw with a posterior arch starting point) to the conventional strategy (i.e., using the lower lateral mass entry site), specifically assessing the safety of screw placement to preserve the C-2 nerve root. METHODS Five US-trained spine fellows instrumented 17 fresh human cadaveric heads using the Goel/Harms C-1 lateral mass (GHLM) technique on the left and the posterior arch lateral mass (PALM) technique on the right, under fluoroscopic guidance. After screw placement, a CT scan was obtained on each specimen to assess for radiographic screw placement accuracy. Four faculty spine surgeons, blinded to the surgeon who instrumented the cadaver, independently graded the quality of screw placement using a modified Upendra classification. RESULTS Of the 17 specimens, the C-2 nerve root was anatomically impinged in 13 (76.5%) of the specimens. The GHLM technique was graded Type 1 or 2, which is considered "acceptable," in 12 specimens (70.6%), and graded Type 3 or 4 ("unacceptable") in 5 specimens (29.4%). In contrast, the PALM technique had 17 (100%) of 17 graded Type 1 or 2 (p = 0.015). There were no vertebral artery injuries found

  13. Accurate upwind methods for the Euler equations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huynh, Hung T.

    1993-01-01

    A new class of piecewise linear methods for the numerical solution of the one-dimensional Euler equations of gas dynamics is presented. These methods are uniformly second-order accurate, and can be considered as extensions of Godunov's scheme. With an appropriate definition of monotonicity preservation for the case of linear convection, it can be shown that they preserve monotonicity. Similar to Van Leer's MUSCL scheme, they consist of two key steps: a reconstruction step followed by an upwind step. For the reconstruction step, a monotonicity constraint that preserves uniform second-order accuracy is introduced. Computational efficiency is enhanced by devising a criterion that detects the 'smooth' part of the data where the constraint is redundant. The concept and coding of the constraint are simplified by the use of the median function. A slope steepening technique, which has no effect at smooth regions and can resolve a contact discontinuity in four cells, is described. As for the upwind step, existing and new methods are applied in a manner slightly different from those in the literature. These methods are derived by approximating the Euler equations via linearization and diagonalization. At a 'smooth' interface, Harten, Lax, and Van Leer's one intermediate state model is employed. A modification for this model that can resolve contact discontinuities is presented. Near a discontinuity, either this modified model or a more accurate one, namely, Roe's flux-difference splitting. is used. The current presentation of Roe's method, via the conceptually simple flux-vector splitting, not only establishes a connection between the two splittings, but also leads to an admissibility correction with no conditional statement, and an efficient approximation to Osher's approximate Riemann solver. These reconstruction and upwind steps result in schemes that are uniformly second-order accurate and economical at smooth regions, and yield high resolution at discontinuities.

  14. Accurate measurement of unsteady state fluid temperature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jaremkiewicz, Magdalena

    2017-03-01

    In this paper, two accurate methods for determining the transient fluid temperature were presented. Measurements were conducted for boiling water since its temperature is known. At the beginning the thermometers are at the ambient temperature and next they are immediately immersed into saturated water. The measurements were carried out with two thermometers of different construction but with the same housing outer diameter equal to 15 mm. One of them is a K-type industrial thermometer widely available commercially. The temperature indicated by the thermometer was corrected considering the thermometers as the first or second order inertia devices. The new design of a thermometer was proposed and also used to measure the temperature of boiling water. Its characteristic feature is a cylinder-shaped housing with the sheath thermocouple located in its center. The temperature of the fluid was determined based on measurements taken in the axis of the solid cylindrical element (housing) using the inverse space marching method. Measurements of the transient temperature of the air flowing through the wind tunnel using the same thermometers were also carried out. The proposed measurement technique provides more accurate results compared with measurements using industrial thermometers in conjunction with simple temperature correction using the inertial thermometer model of the first or second order. By comparing the results, it was demonstrated that the new thermometer allows obtaining the fluid temperature much faster and with higher accuracy in comparison to the industrial thermometer. Accurate measurements of the fast changing fluid temperature are possible due to the low inertia thermometer and fast space marching method applied for solving the inverse heat conduction problem.

  15. Parametric Probability Distribution Functions for Axon Diameters of Corpus Callosum.

    PubMed

    Sepehrband, Farshid; Alexander, Daniel C; Clark, Kristi A; Kurniawan, Nyoman D; Yang, Zhengyi; Reutens, David C

    2016-01-01

    Axon diameter is an important neuroanatomical characteristic of the nervous system that alters in the course of neurological disorders such as multiple sclerosis. Axon diameters vary, even within a fiber bundle, and are not normally distributed. An accurate distribution function is therefore beneficial, either to describe axon diameters that are obtained from a direct measurement technique (e.g., microscopy), or to infer them indirectly (e.g., using diffusion-weighted MRI). The gamma distribution is a common choice for this purpose (particularly for the inferential approach) because it resembles the distribution profile of measured axon diameters which has been consistently shown to be non-negative and right-skewed. In this study we compared a wide range of parametric probability distribution functions against empirical data obtained from electron microscopy images. We observed that the gamma distribution fails to accurately describe the main characteristics of the axon diameter distribution, such as location and scale of the mode and the profile of distribution tails. We also found that the generalized extreme value distribution consistently fitted the measured distribution better than other distribution functions. This suggests that there may be distinct subpopulations of axons in the corpus callosum, each with their own distribution profiles. In addition, we observed that several other distributions outperformed the gamma distribution, yet had the same number of unknown parameters; these were the inverse Gaussian, log normal, log logistic and Birnbaum-Saunders distributions.

  16. Parametric Probability Distribution Functions for Axon Diameters of Corpus Callosum

    PubMed Central

    Sepehrband, Farshid; Alexander, Daniel C.; Clark, Kristi A.; Kurniawan, Nyoman D.; Yang, Zhengyi; Reutens, David C.

    2016-01-01

    Axon diameter is an important neuroanatomical characteristic of the nervous system that alters in the course of neurological disorders such as multiple sclerosis. Axon diameters vary, even within a fiber bundle, and are not normally distributed. An accurate distribution function is therefore beneficial, either to describe axon diameters that are obtained from a direct measurement technique (e.g., microscopy), or to infer them indirectly (e.g., using diffusion-weighted MRI). The gamma distribution is a common choice for this purpose (particularly for the inferential approach) because it resembles the distribution profile of measured axon diameters which has been consistently shown to be non-negative and right-skewed. In this study we compared a wide range of parametric probability distribution functions against empirical data obtained from electron microscopy images. We observed that the gamma distribution fails to accurately describe the main characteristics of the axon diameter distribution, such as location and scale of the mode and the profile of distribution tails. We also found that the generalized extreme value distribution consistently fitted the measured distribution better than other distribution functions. This suggests that there may be distinct subpopulations of axons in the corpus callosum, each with their own distribution profiles. In addition, we observed that several other distributions outperformed the gamma distribution, yet had the same number of unknown parameters; these were the inverse Gaussian, log normal, log logistic and Birnbaum-Saunders distributions. PMID:27303273

  17. The first accurate description of an aurora

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schröder, Wilfried

    2006-12-01

    As technology has advanced, the scientific study of auroral phenomena has increased by leaps and bounds. A look back at the earliest descriptions of aurorae offers an interesting look into how medieval scholars viewed the subjects that we study.Although there are earlier fragmentary references in the literature, the first accurate description of the aurora borealis appears to be that published by the German Catholic scholar Konrad von Megenberg (1309-1374) in his book Das Buch der Natur (The Book of Nature). The book was written between 1349 and 1350.

  18. Determining accurate distances to nearby galaxies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bonanos, Alceste Zoe

    2005-11-01

    Determining accurate distances to nearby or distant galaxies is a very simple conceptually, yet complicated in practice, task. Presently, distances to nearby galaxies are only known to an accuracy of 10-15%. The current anchor galaxy of the extragalactic distance scale is the Large Magellanic Cloud, which has large (10-15%) systematic uncertainties associated with it, because of its morphology, its non-uniform reddening and the unknown metallicity dependence of the Cepheid period-luminosity relation. This work aims to determine accurate distances to some nearby galaxies, and subsequently help reduce the error in the extragalactic distance scale and the Hubble constant H 0 . In particular, this work presents the first distance determination of the DIRECT Project to M33 with detached eclipsing binaries. DIRECT aims to obtain a new anchor galaxy for the extragalactic distance scale by measuring direct, accurate (to 5%) distances to two Local Group galaxies, M31 and M33, with detached eclipsing binaries. It involves a massive variability survey of these galaxies and subsequent photometric and spectroscopic follow-up of the detached binaries discovered. In this work, I also present a catalog of variable stars discovered in one of the DIRECT fields, M31Y, which includes 41 eclipsing binaries. Additionally, we derive the distance to the Draco Dwarf Spheroidal galaxy, with ~100 RR Lyrae found in our first CCD variability study of this galaxy. A "hybrid" method of discovering Cepheids with ground-based telescopes is described next. It involves applying the image subtraction technique on the images obtained from ground-based telescopes and then following them up with the Hubble Space Telescope to derive Cepheid period-luminosity distances. By re-analyzing ESO Very Large Telescope data on M83 (NGC 5236), we demonstrate that this method is much more powerful for detecting variability, especially in crowded fields. I finally present photometry for the Wolf-Rayet binary WR 20a

  19. New law requires 'medically accurate' lesson plans.

    PubMed

    1999-09-17

    The California Legislature has passed a bill requiring all textbooks and materials used to teach about AIDS be medically accurate and objective. Statements made within the curriculum must be supported by research conducted in compliance with scientific methods, and published in peer-reviewed journals. Some of the current lesson plans were found to contain scientifically unsupported and biased information. In addition, the bill requires material to be "free of racial, ethnic, or gender biases." The legislation is supported by a wide range of interests, but opposed by the California Right to Life Education Fund, because they believe it discredits abstinence-only material.

  20. Investigating Probability with the NBA Draft Lottery.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Quinn, Robert J.

    1997-01-01

    Investigates an interesting application of probability in the world of sports. Considers the role of permutations in the lottery system used by the National Basketball Association (NBA) in the United States to determine the order in which nonplayoff teams select players from the college ranks. Presents a lesson on this topic in which students work…