Science.gov

Sample records for accurate prediction results

  1. Infectious titres of sheep scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents cannot be accurately predicted from quantitative laboratory test results.

    PubMed

    González, Lorenzo; Thorne, Leigh; Jeffrey, Martin; Martin, Stuart; Spiropoulos, John; Beck, Katy E; Lockey, Richard W; Vickery, Christopher M; Holder, Thomas; Terry, Linda

    2012-11-01

    It is widely accepted that abnormal forms of the prion protein (PrP) are the best surrogate marker for the infectious agent of prion diseases and, in practice, the detection of such disease-associated (PrP(d)) and/or protease-resistant (PrP(res)) forms of PrP is the cornerstone of diagnosis and surveillance of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). Nevertheless, some studies question the consistent association between infectivity and abnormal PrP detection. To address this discrepancy, 11 brain samples of sheep affected with natural scrapie or experimental bovine spongiform encephalopathy were selected on the basis of the magnitude and predominant types of PrP(d) accumulation, as shown by immunohistochemical (IHC) examination; contra-lateral hemi-brain samples were inoculated at three different dilutions into transgenic mice overexpressing ovine PrP and were also subjected to quantitative analysis by three biochemical tests (BCTs). Six samples gave 'low' infectious titres (10⁶·⁵ to 10⁶·⁷ LD₅₀ g⁻¹) and five gave 'high titres' (10⁸·¹ to ≥ 10⁸·⁷ LD₅₀ g⁻¹) and, with the exception of the Western blot analysis, those two groups tended to correspond with samples with lower PrP(d)/PrP(res) results by IHC/BCTs. However, no statistical association could be confirmed due to high individual sample variability. It is concluded that although detection of abnormal forms of PrP by laboratory methods remains useful to confirm TSE infection, infectivity titres cannot be predicted from quantitative test results, at least for the TSE sources and host PRNP genotypes used in this study. Furthermore, the near inverse correlation between infectious titres and Western blot results (high protease pre-treatment) argues for a dissociation between infectivity and PrP(res).

  2. Hounsfield unit density accurately predicts ESWL success.

    PubMed

    Magnuson, William J; Tomera, Kevin M; Lance, Raymond S

    2005-01-01

    Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (ESWL) is a commonly used non-invasive treatment for urolithiasis. Helical CT scans provide much better and detailed imaging of the patient with urolithiasis including the ability to measure density of urinary stones. In this study we tested the hypothesis that density of urinary calculi as measured by CT can predict successful ESWL treatment. 198 patients were treated at Alaska Urological Associates with ESWL between January 2002 and April 2004. Of these 101 met study inclusion with accessible CT scans and stones ranging from 5-15 mm. Follow-up imaging demonstrated stone freedom in 74.2%. The overall mean Houndsfield density value for stone-free compared to residual stone groups were significantly different ( 93.61 vs 122.80 p < 0.0001). We determined by receiver operator curve (ROC) that HDV of 93 or less carries a 90% or better chance of stone freedom following ESWL for upper tract calculi between 5-15mm.

  3. Can Selforganizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Way, Michael J.; Klose, Christian

    2012-01-01

    We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using delta(z) = z(sub phot) - z(sub spec)) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods

  4. Plant diversity accurately predicts insect diversity in two tropical landscapes.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Kai; Lin, Siliang; Ji, Yinqiu; Yang, Chenxue; Wang, Xiaoyang; Yang, Chunyan; Wang, Hesheng; Jiang, Haisheng; Harrison, Rhett D; Yu, Douglas W

    2016-09-01

    Plant diversity surely determines arthropod diversity, but only moderate correlations between arthropod and plant species richness had been observed until Basset et al. (Science, 338, 2012 and 1481) finally undertook an unprecedentedly comprehensive sampling of a tropical forest and demonstrated that plant species richness could indeed accurately predict arthropod species richness. We now require a high-throughput pipeline to operationalize this result so that we can (i) test competing explanations for tropical arthropod megadiversity, (ii) improve estimates of global eukaryotic species diversity, and (iii) use plant and arthropod communities as efficient proxies for each other, thus improving the efficiency of conservation planning and of detecting forest degradation and recovery. We therefore applied metabarcoding to Malaise-trap samples across two tropical landscapes in China. We demonstrate that plant species richness can accurately predict arthropod (mostly insect) species richness and that plant and insect community compositions are highly correlated, even in landscapes that are large, heterogeneous and anthropogenically modified. Finally, we review how metabarcoding makes feasible highly replicated tests of the major competing explanations for tropical megadiversity. PMID:27474399

  5. On the Accurate Prediction of CME Arrival At the Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jie; Hess, Phillip

    2016-07-01

    We will discuss relevant issues regarding the accurate prediction of CME arrival at the Earth, from both observational and theoretical points of view. In particular, we clarify the importance of separating the study of CME ejecta from the ejecta-driven shock in interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). For a number of CME-ICME events well observed by SOHO/LASCO, STEREO-A and STEREO-B, we carry out the 3-D measurements by superimposing geometries onto both the ejecta and sheath separately. These measurements are then used to constrain a Drag-Based Model, which is improved through a modification of including height dependence of the drag coefficient into the model. Combining all these factors allows us to create predictions for both fronts at 1 AU and compare with actual in-situ observations. We show an ability to predict the sheath arrival with an average error of under 4 hours, with an RMS error of about 1.5 hours. For the CME ejecta, the error is less than two hours with an RMS error within an hour. Through using the best observations of CMEs, we show the power of our method in accurately predicting CME arrival times. The limitation and implications of our accurate prediction method will be discussed.

  6. PredictSNP: robust and accurate consensus classifier for prediction of disease-related mutations.

    PubMed

    Bendl, Jaroslav; Stourac, Jan; Salanda, Ondrej; Pavelka, Antonin; Wieben, Eric D; Zendulka, Jaroslav; Brezovsky, Jan; Damborsky, Jiri

    2014-01-01

    Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp.

  7. Accurate stress resultants equations for laminated composite deep thick shells

    SciTech Connect

    Qatu, M.S.

    1995-11-01

    This paper derives accurate equations for the normal and shear force as well as bending and twisting moment resultants for laminated composite deep, thick shells. The stress resultant equations for laminated composite thick shells are shown to be different from those of plates. This is due to the fact the stresses over the thickness of the shell have to be integrated on a trapezoidal-like shell element to obtain the stress resultants. Numerical results are obtained and showed that accurate stress resultants are needed for laminated composite deep thick shells, especially if the curvature is not spherical.

  8. Fast and accurate predictions of covalent bonds in chemical space.

    PubMed

    Chang, K Y Samuel; Fias, Stijn; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

    2016-05-01

    We assess the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among molecules. We have investigated σ bonding to hydrogen, as well as σ and π bonding between main-group elements, occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecules with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order Taylor expansions of covalent bonding potentials can achieve high accuracy if (i) the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry), (ii) it involves elements from the third and fourth rows of the periodic table, and (iii) an optimal reference geometry is used. This leads to near linear changes in the bonding potential, resulting in analytical predictions with chemical accuracy (∼1 kcal/mol). Second order estimates deteriorate the prediction. If initial and final molecules differ not only in composition but also in geometry, all estimates become substantially worse, with second order being slightly more accurate than first order. The independent particle approximation based second order perturbation theory performs poorly when compared to the coupled perturbed or finite difference approach. Taylor series expansions up to fourth order of the potential energy curve of highly symmetric systems indicate a finite radius of convergence, as illustrated for the alchemical stretching of H2 (+). Results are presented for (i) covalent bonds to hydrogen in 12 molecules with 8 valence electrons (CH4, NH3, H2O, HF, SiH4, PH3, H2S, HCl, GeH4, AsH3, H2Se, HBr); (ii) main-group single bonds in 9 molecules with 14 valence electrons (CH3F, CH3Cl, CH3Br, SiH3F, SiH3Cl, SiH3Br, GeH3F, GeH3Cl, GeH3Br); (iii) main-group double bonds in 9 molecules with 12 valence electrons (CH2O, CH2S, CH2Se, SiH2O, SiH2S, SiH2Se, GeH2O, GeH2S, GeH2Se); (iv) main-group triple bonds in 9 molecules with 10 valence electrons (HCN, HCP, HCAs, HSiN, HSi

  9. Fast and accurate predictions of covalent bonds in chemical space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, K. Y. Samuel; Fias, Stijn; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole

    2016-05-01

    We assess the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among molecules. We have investigated σ bonding to hydrogen, as well as σ and π bonding between main-group elements, occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecules with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order Taylor expansions of covalent bonding potentials can achieve high accuracy if (i) the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry), (ii) it involves elements from the third and fourth rows of the periodic table, and (iii) an optimal reference geometry is used. This leads to near linear changes in the bonding potential, resulting in analytical predictions with chemical accuracy (˜1 kcal/mol). Second order estimates deteriorate the prediction. If initial and final molecules differ not only in composition but also in geometry, all estimates become substantially worse, with second order being slightly more accurate than first order. The independent particle approximation based second order perturbation theory performs poorly when compared to the coupled perturbed or finite difference approach. Taylor series expansions up to fourth order of the potential energy curve of highly symmetric systems indicate a finite radius of convergence, as illustrated for the alchemical stretching of H 2+ . Results are presented for (i) covalent bonds to hydrogen in 12 molecules with 8 valence electrons (CH4, NH3, H2O, HF, SiH4, PH3, H2S, HCl, GeH4, AsH3, H2Se, HBr); (ii) main-group single bonds in 9 molecules with 14 valence electrons (CH3F, CH3Cl, CH3Br, SiH3F, SiH3Cl, SiH3Br, GeH3F, GeH3Cl, GeH3Br); (iii) main-group double bonds in 9 molecules with 12 valence electrons (CH2O, CH2S, CH2Se, SiH2O, SiH2S, SiH2Se, GeH2O, GeH2S, GeH2Se); (iv) main-group triple bonds in 9 molecules with 10 valence electrons (HCN, HCP, HCAs, HSiN, HSi

  10. Fast and accurate predictions of covalent bonds in chemical space.

    PubMed

    Chang, K Y Samuel; Fias, Stijn; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

    2016-05-01

    We assess the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among molecules. We have investigated σ bonding to hydrogen, as well as σ and π bonding between main-group elements, occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecules with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order Taylor expansions of covalent bonding potentials can achieve high accuracy if (i) the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry), (ii) it involves elements from the third and fourth rows of the periodic table, and (iii) an optimal reference geometry is used. This leads to near linear changes in the bonding potential, resulting in analytical predictions with chemical accuracy (∼1 kcal/mol). Second order estimates deteriorate the prediction. If initial and final molecules differ not only in composition but also in geometry, all estimates become substantially worse, with second order being slightly more accurate than first order. The independent particle approximation based second order perturbation theory performs poorly when compared to the coupled perturbed or finite difference approach. Taylor series expansions up to fourth order of the potential energy curve of highly symmetric systems indicate a finite radius of convergence, as illustrated for the alchemical stretching of H2 (+). Results are presented for (i) covalent bonds to hydrogen in 12 molecules with 8 valence electrons (CH4, NH3, H2O, HF, SiH4, PH3, H2S, HCl, GeH4, AsH3, H2Se, HBr); (ii) main-group single bonds in 9 molecules with 14 valence electrons (CH3F, CH3Cl, CH3Br, SiH3F, SiH3Cl, SiH3Br, GeH3F, GeH3Cl, GeH3Br); (iii) main-group double bonds in 9 molecules with 12 valence electrons (CH2O, CH2S, CH2Se, SiH2O, SiH2S, SiH2Se, GeH2O, GeH2S, GeH2Se); (iv) main-group triple bonds in 9 molecules with 10 valence electrons (HCN, HCP, HCAs, HSiN, HSi

  11. Passive samplers accurately predict PAH levels in resident crayfish.

    PubMed

    Paulik, L Blair; Smith, Brian W; Bergmann, Alan J; Sower, Greg J; Forsberg, Norman D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Anderson, Kim A

    2016-02-15

    Contamination of resident aquatic organisms is a major concern for environmental risk assessors. However, collecting organisms to estimate risk is often prohibitively time and resource-intensive. Passive sampling accurately estimates resident organism contamination, and it saves time and resources. This study used low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive water samplers to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus. Resident crayfish were collected at 5 sites within and outside of the Portland Harbor Superfund Megasite (PHSM) in the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon. LDPE deployment was spatially and temporally paired with crayfish collection. Crayfish visceral and tail tissue, as well as water-deployed LDPE, were extracted and analyzed for 62 PAHs using GC-MS/MS. Freely-dissolved concentrations (Cfree) of PAHs in water were calculated from concentrations in LDPE. Carcinogenic risks were estimated for all crayfish tissues, using benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq). ∑PAH were 5-20 times higher in viscera than in tails, and ∑BaPeq were 6-70 times higher in viscera than in tails. Eating only tail tissue of crayfish would therefore significantly reduce carcinogenic risk compared to also eating viscera. Additionally, PAH levels in crayfish were compared to levels in crayfish collected 10 years earlier. PAH levels in crayfish were higher upriver of the PHSM and unchanged within the PHSM after the 10-year period. Finally, a linear regression model predicted levels of 34 PAHs in crayfish viscera with an associated R-squared value of 0.52 (and a correlation coefficient of 0.72), using only the Cfree PAHs in water. On average, the model predicted PAH concentrations in crayfish tissue within a factor of 2.4 ± 1.8 of measured concentrations. This affirms that passive water sampling accurately estimates PAH contamination in crayfish. Furthermore, the strong predictive ability of this simple model suggests

  12. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; et al

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  13. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.

  14. PredictSNP: Robust and Accurate Consensus Classifier for Prediction of Disease-Related Mutations

    PubMed Central

    Bendl, Jaroslav; Stourac, Jan; Salanda, Ondrej; Pavelka, Antonin; Wieben, Eric D.; Zendulka, Jaroslav; Brezovsky, Jan; Damborsky, Jiri

    2014-01-01

    Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp. PMID:24453961

  15. Passive samplers accurately predict PAH levels in resident crayfish.

    PubMed

    Paulik, L Blair; Smith, Brian W; Bergmann, Alan J; Sower, Greg J; Forsberg, Norman D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Anderson, Kim A

    2016-02-15

    Contamination of resident aquatic organisms is a major concern for environmental risk assessors. However, collecting organisms to estimate risk is often prohibitively time and resource-intensive. Passive sampling accurately estimates resident organism contamination, and it saves time and resources. This study used low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive water samplers to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus. Resident crayfish were collected at 5 sites within and outside of the Portland Harbor Superfund Megasite (PHSM) in the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon. LDPE deployment was spatially and temporally paired with crayfish collection. Crayfish visceral and tail tissue, as well as water-deployed LDPE, were extracted and analyzed for 62 PAHs using GC-MS/MS. Freely-dissolved concentrations (Cfree) of PAHs in water were calculated from concentrations in LDPE. Carcinogenic risks were estimated for all crayfish tissues, using benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq). ∑PAH were 5-20 times higher in viscera than in tails, and ∑BaPeq were 6-70 times higher in viscera than in tails. Eating only tail tissue of crayfish would therefore significantly reduce carcinogenic risk compared to also eating viscera. Additionally, PAH levels in crayfish were compared to levels in crayfish collected 10 years earlier. PAH levels in crayfish were higher upriver of the PHSM and unchanged within the PHSM after the 10-year period. Finally, a linear regression model predicted levels of 34 PAHs in crayfish viscera with an associated R-squared value of 0.52 (and a correlation coefficient of 0.72), using only the Cfree PAHs in water. On average, the model predicted PAH concentrations in crayfish tissue within a factor of 2.4 ± 1.8 of measured concentrations. This affirms that passive water sampling accurately estimates PAH contamination in crayfish. Furthermore, the strong predictive ability of this simple model suggests

  16. Does more accurate exposure prediction necessarily improve health effect estimates?

    PubMed

    Szpiro, Adam A; Paciorek, Christopher J; Sheppard, Lianne

    2011-09-01

    A unique challenge in air pollution cohort studies and similar applications in environmental epidemiology is that exposure is not measured directly at subjects' locations. Instead, pollution data from monitoring stations at some distance from the study subjects are used to predict exposures, and these predicted exposures are used to estimate the health effect parameter of interest. It is usually assumed that minimizing the error in predicting the true exposure will improve health effect estimation. We show in a simulation study that this is not always the case. We interpret our results in light of recently developed statistical theory for measurement error, and we discuss implications for the design and analysis of epidemiologic research.

  17. Mouse models of human AML accurately predict chemotherapy response

    PubMed Central

    Zuber, Johannes; Radtke, Ina; Pardee, Timothy S.; Zhao, Zhen; Rappaport, Amy R.; Luo, Weijun; McCurrach, Mila E.; Yang, Miao-Miao; Dolan, M. Eileen; Kogan, Scott C.; Downing, James R.; Lowe, Scott W.

    2009-01-01

    The genetic heterogeneity of cancer influences the trajectory of tumor progression and may underlie clinical variation in therapy response. To model such heterogeneity, we produced genetically and pathologically accurate mouse models of common forms of human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and developed methods to mimic standard induction chemotherapy and efficiently monitor therapy response. We see that murine AMLs harboring two common human AML genotypes show remarkably diverse responses to conventional therapy that mirror clinical experience. Specifically, murine leukemias expressing the AML1/ETO fusion oncoprotein, associated with a favorable prognosis in patients, show a dramatic response to induction chemotherapy owing to robust activation of the p53 tumor suppressor network. Conversely, murine leukemias expressing MLL fusion proteins, associated with a dismal prognosis in patients, are drug-resistant due to an attenuated p53 response. Our studies highlight the importance of genetic information in guiding the treatment of human AML, functionally establish the p53 network as a central determinant of chemotherapy response in AML, and demonstrate that genetically engineered mouse models of human cancer can accurately predict therapy response in patients. PMID:19339691

  18. Towards Accurate Ab Initio Predictions of the Spectrum of Methane

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwenke, David W.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We have carried out extensive ab initio calculations of the electronic structure of methane, and these results are used to compute vibrational energy levels. We include basis set extrapolations, core-valence correlation, relativistic effects, and Born- Oppenheimer breakdown terms in our calculations. Our ab initio predictions of the lowest lying levels are superb.

  19. Is Three-Dimensional Soft Tissue Prediction by Software Accurate?

    PubMed

    Nam, Ki-Uk; Hong, Jongrak

    2015-11-01

    The authors assessed whether virtual surgery, performed with a soft tissue prediction program, could correctly simulate the actual surgical outcome, focusing on soft tissue movement. Preoperative and postoperative computed tomography (CT) data for 29 patients, who had undergone orthognathic surgery, were obtained and analyzed using the Simplant Pro software. The program made a predicted soft tissue image (A) based on presurgical CT data. After the operation, we obtained actual postoperative CT data and an actual soft tissue image (B) was generated. Finally, the 2 images (A and B) were superimposed and analyzed differences between the A and B. Results were grouped in 2 classes: absolute values and vector values. In the absolute values, the left mouth corner was the most significant error point (2.36 mm). The right mouth corner (2.28 mm), labrale inferius (2.08 mm), and the pogonion (2.03 mm) also had significant errors. In vector values, prediction of the right-left side had a left-sided tendency, the superior-inferior had a superior tendency, and the anterior-posterior showed an anterior tendency. As a result, with this program, the position of points tended to be located more left, anterior, and superior than the "real" situation. There is a need to improve the prediction accuracy for soft tissue images. Such software is particularly valuable in predicting craniofacial soft tissues landmarks, such as the pronasale. With this software, landmark positions were most inaccurate in terms of anterior-posterior predictions.

  20. Standardized EEG interpretation accurately predicts prognosis after cardiac arrest

    PubMed Central

    Rossetti, Andrea O.; van Rootselaar, Anne-Fleur; Wesenberg Kjaer, Troels; Horn, Janneke; Ullén, Susann; Friberg, Hans; Nielsen, Niklas; Rosén, Ingmar; Åneman, Anders; Erlinge, David; Gasche, Yvan; Hassager, Christian; Hovdenes, Jan; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Kuiper, Michael; Pellis, Tommaso; Stammet, Pascal; Wanscher, Michael; Wetterslev, Jørn; Wise, Matt P.; Cronberg, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To identify reliable predictors of outcome in comatose patients after cardiac arrest using a single routine EEG and standardized interpretation according to the terminology proposed by the American Clinical Neurophysiology Society. Methods: In this cohort study, 4 EEG specialists, blinded to outcome, evaluated prospectively recorded EEGs in the Target Temperature Management trial (TTM trial) that randomized patients to 33°C vs 36°C. Routine EEG was performed in patients still comatose after rewarming. EEGs were classified into highly malignant (suppression, suppression with periodic discharges, burst-suppression), malignant (periodic or rhythmic patterns, pathological or nonreactive background), and benign EEG (absence of malignant features). Poor outcome was defined as best Cerebral Performance Category score 3–5 until 180 days. Results: Eight TTM sites randomized 202 patients. EEGs were recorded in 103 patients at a median 77 hours after cardiac arrest; 37% had a highly malignant EEG and all had a poor outcome (specificity 100%, sensitivity 50%). Any malignant EEG feature had a low specificity to predict poor prognosis (48%) but if 2 malignant EEG features were present specificity increased to 96% (p < 0.001). Specificity and sensitivity were not significantly affected by targeted temperature or sedation. A benign EEG was found in 1% of the patients with a poor outcome. Conclusions: Highly malignant EEG after rewarming reliably predicted poor outcome in half of patients without false predictions. An isolated finding of a single malignant feature did not predict poor outcome whereas a benign EEG was highly predictive of a good outcome. PMID:26865516

  1. Accurate contact predictions using covariation techniques and machine learning

    PubMed Central

    Kosciolek, Tomasz

    2015-01-01

    ABSTRACT Here we present the results of residue–residue contact predictions achieved in CASP11 by the CONSIP2 server, which is based around our MetaPSICOV contact prediction method. On a set of 40 target domains with a median family size of around 40 effective sequences, our server achieved an average top‐L/5 long‐range contact precision of 27%. MetaPSICOV method bases on a combination of classical contact prediction features, enhanced with three distinct covariation methods embedded in a two‐stage neural network predictor. Some unique features of our approach are (1) the tuning between the classical and covariation features depending on the depth of the input alignment and (2) a hybrid approach to generate deepest possible multiple‐sequence alignments by combining jackHMMer and HHblits. We discuss the CONSIP2 pipeline, our results and show that where the method underperformed, the major factor was relying on a fixed set of parameters for the initial sequence alignments and not attempting to perform domain splitting as a preprocessing step. Proteins 2016; 84(Suppl 1):145–151. © 2015 The Authors. Proteins: Structure, Function, and Bioinformatics Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:26205532

  2. How Accurately Can We Predict Eclipses for Algol? (Poster abstract)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, D.

    2016-06-01

    (Abstract only) beta Persei, or Algol, is a very well known eclipsing binary system consisting of a late B-type dwarf that is regularly eclipsed by a GK subgiant every 2.867 days. Eclipses, which last about 8 hours, are regular enough that predictions for times of minima are published in various places, Sky & Telescope magazine and The Observer's Handbook, for example. But eclipse minimum lasts for less than a half hour, whereas subtle mistakes in the current ephemeris for the star can result in predictions that are off by a few hours or more. The Algol system is fairly complex, with the Algol A and Algol B eclipsing system also orbited by Algol C with an orbital period of nearly 2 years. Added to that are complex long-term O-C variations with a periodicity of almost two centuries that, although suggested by Hoffmeister to be spurious, fit the type of light travel time variations expected for a fourth star also belonging to the system. The AB sub-system also undergoes mass transfer events that add complexities to its O-C behavior. Is it actually possible to predict precise times of eclipse minima for Algol months in advance given such complications, or is it better to encourage ongoing observations of the star so that O-C variations can be tracked in real time?

  3. Accurate and predictive antibody repertoire profiling by molecular amplification fingerprinting

    PubMed Central

    Khan, Tarik A.; Friedensohn, Simon; de Vries, Arthur R. Gorter; Straszewski, Jakub; Ruscheweyh, Hans-Joachim; Reddy, Sai T.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput antibody repertoire sequencing (Ig-seq) provides quantitative molecular information on humoral immunity. However, Ig-seq is compromised by biases and errors introduced during library preparation and sequencing. By using synthetic antibody spike-in genes, we determined that primer bias from multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) library preparation resulted in antibody frequencies with only 42 to 62% accuracy. Additionally, Ig-seq errors resulted in antibody diversity measurements being overestimated by up to 5000-fold. To rectify this, we developed molecular amplification fingerprinting (MAF), which uses unique molecular identifier (UID) tagging before and during multiplex PCR amplification, which enabled tagging of transcripts while accounting for PCR efficiency. Combined with a bioinformatic pipeline, MAF bias correction led to measurements of antibody frequencies with up to 99% accuracy. We also used MAF to correct PCR and sequencing errors, resulting in enhanced accuracy of full-length antibody diversity measurements, achieving 98 to 100% error correction. Using murine MAF-corrected data, we established a quantitative metric of recent clonal expansion—the intraclonal diversity index—which measures the number of unique transcripts associated with an antibody clone. We used this intraclonal diversity index along with antibody frequencies and somatic hypermutation to build a logistic regression model for prediction of the immunological status of clones. The model was able to predict clonal status with high confidence but only when using MAF error and bias corrected Ig-seq data. Improved accuracy by MAF provides the potential to greatly advance Ig-seq and its utility in immunology and biotechnology. PMID:26998518

  4. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-01-01

    Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale. PMID:26198229

  5. Earthquake prediction; new studies yield promising results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Robinson, R.

    1974-01-01

    On Agust 3, 1973, a small earthquake (magnitude 2.5) occurred near Blue Mountain Lake in the Adirondack region of northern New York State. This seemingly unimportant event was of great significance, however, because it was predicted. Seismologsits at the Lamont-Doherty geologcal Observatory of Columbia University accurately foretold the time, place, and magnitude of the event. Their prediction was based on certain pre-earthquake processes that are best explained by a hypothesis known as "dilatancy," a concept that has injected new life and direction into the science of earthquake prediction. Although much mroe reserach must be accomplished before we can expect to predict potentially damaging earthquakes with any degree of consistency, results such as this indicate that we are on a promising road. 

  6. Accurately Predicting Complex Reaction Kinetics from First Principles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Green, William

    Many important systems contain a multitude of reactive chemical species, some of which react on a timescale faster than collisional thermalization, i.e. they never achieve a Boltzmann energy distribution. Usually it is impossible to fully elucidate the processes by experiments alone. Here we report recent progress toward predicting the time-evolving composition of these systems a priori: how unexpected reactions can be discovered on the computer, how reaction rates are computed from first principles, and how the many individual reactions are efficiently combined into a predictive simulation for the whole system. Some experimental tests of the a priori predictions are also presented.

  7. Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises. PMID:27260782

  8. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  9. Accurate predictions for the production of vaporized water

    SciTech Connect

    Morin, E.; Montel, F.

    1995-12-31

    The production of water vaporized in the gas phase is controlled by the local conditions around the wellbore. The pressure gradient applied to the formation creates a sharp increase of the molar water content in the hydrocarbon phase approaching the well; this leads to a drop in the pore water saturation around the wellbore. The extent of the dehydrated zone which is formed is the key controlling the bottom-hole content of vaporized water. The maximum water content in the hydrocarbon phase at a given pressure, temperature and salinity is corrected by capillarity or adsorption phenomena depending on the actual water saturation. Describing the mass transfer of the water between the hydrocarbon phases and the aqueous phase into the tubing gives a clear idea of vaporization effects on the formation of scales. Field example are presented for gas fields with temperatures ranging between 140{degrees}C and 180{degrees}C, where water vaporization effects are significant. Conditions for salt plugging in the tubing are predicted.

  10. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

    PubMed

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future. PMID:27272707

  11. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately in the future? The unrevealed hurdle of endodormancy break.

    PubMed

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean-Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Iñaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2016-10-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been earlier by 2.3 days per decade during the last 40 years in temperate Europe because of global warming. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is, however, not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud endodormancy, and, on the other hand, higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cell growth afterward. Different process-based models have been developed in the last decades to predict the date of budbreak of woody species. They predict that global warming should delay or compromise endodormancy break at the species equatorward range limits leading to a delay or even impossibility to flower or set new leaves. These models are classically parameterized with flowering or budbreak dates only, with no information on the endodormancy break date because this information is very scarce. Here, we evaluated the efficiency of a set of phenological models to accurately predict the endodormancy break dates of three fruit trees. Our results show that models calibrated solely with budbreak dates usually do not accurately predict the endodormancy break date. Providing endodormancy break date for the model parameterization results in much more accurate prediction of this latter, with, however, a higher error than that on budbreak dates. Most importantly, we show that models not calibrated with endodormancy break dates can generate large discrepancies in forecasted budbreak dates when using climate scenarios as compared to models calibrated with endodormancy break dates. This discrepancy increases with mean annual temperature and is therefore the strongest after 2050 in the southernmost regions. Our results claim for the urgent need of massive measurements of endodormancy break dates in forest and fruit trees to yield more robust projections of phenological changes in a near future.

  12. Change in BMI accurately predicted by social exposure to acquaintances.

    PubMed

    Oloritun, Rahman O; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Moturu, Sai; Madan, Anmol; Pentland, Alex Sandy; Khayal, Inas

    2013-01-01

    Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and R(2). This study found a model that explains 68% (p<0.0001) of the variation in change in BMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as close friends.

  13. Can Self-Organizing Maps Accurately Predict Photometric Redshifts?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Way, M. J.; Klose, C. D.

    2012-03-01

    We present an unsupervised machine-learning approach that can be employed for estimating photometric redshifts. The proposed method is based on a vector quantization called the self-organizing-map (SOM) approach. A variety of photometrically derived input values were utilized from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey's main galaxy sample, luminous red galaxy, and quasar samples, along with the PHAT0 data set from the Photo-z Accuracy Testing project. Regression results obtained with this new approach were evaluated in terms of root-mean-square error (RMSE) to estimate the accuracy of the photometric redshift estimates. The results demonstrate competitive RMSE and outlier percentages when compared with several other popular approaches, such as artificial neural networks and Gaussian process regression. SOM RMSE results (using Δz = zphot - zspec) are 0.023 for the main galaxy sample, 0.027 for the luminous red galaxy sample, 0.418 for quasars, and 0.022 for PHAT0 synthetic data. The results demonstrate that there are nonunique solutions for estimating SOM RMSEs. Further research is needed in order to find more robust estimation techniques using SOMs, but the results herein are a positive indication of their capabilities when compared with other well-known methods.

  14. Accurate similarity index based on activity and connectivity of node for link prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Longjie; Qian, Lvjian; Wang, Xiaoping; Luo, Shishun; Chen, Xiaoyun

    2015-05-01

    Recent years have witnessed the increasing of available network data; however, much of those data is incomplete. Link prediction, which can find the missing links of a network, plays an important role in the research and analysis of complex networks. Based on the assumption that two unconnected nodes which are highly similar are very likely to have an interaction, most of the existing algorithms solve the link prediction problem by computing nodes' similarities. The fundamental requirement of those algorithms is accurate and effective similarity indices. In this paper, we propose a new similarity index, namely similarity based on activity and connectivity (SAC), which performs link prediction more accurately. To compute the similarity between two nodes, this index employs the average activity of these two nodes in their common neighborhood and the connectivities between them and their common neighbors. The higher the average activity is and the stronger the connectivities are, the more similar the two nodes are. The proposed index not only commendably distinguishes the contributions of paths but also incorporates the influence of endpoints. Therefore, it can achieve a better predicting result. To verify the performance of SAC, we conduct experiments on 10 real-world networks. Experimental results demonstrate that SAC outperforms the compared baselines.

  15. Prediction of Accurate Thermochemistry of Medium and Large Sized Radicals Using Connectivity-Based Hierarchy (CBH).

    PubMed

    Sengupta, Arkajyoti; Raghavachari, Krishnan

    2014-10-14

    Accurate modeling of the chemical reactions in many diverse areas such as combustion, photochemistry, or atmospheric chemistry strongly depends on the availability of thermochemical information of the radicals involved. However, accurate thermochemical investigations of radical systems using state of the art composite methods have mostly been restricted to the study of hydrocarbon radicals of modest size. In an alternative approach, systematic error-canceling thermochemical hierarchy of reaction schemes can be applied to yield accurate results for such systems. In this work, we have extended our connectivity-based hierarchy (CBH) method to the investigation of radical systems. We have calibrated our method using a test set of 30 medium sized radicals to evaluate their heats of formation. The CBH-rad30 test set contains radicals containing diverse functional groups as well as cyclic systems. We demonstrate that the sophisticated error-canceling isoatomic scheme (CBH-2) with modest levels of theory is adequate to provide heats of formation accurate to ∼1.5 kcal/mol. Finally, we predict heats of formation of 19 other large and medium sized radicals for which the accuracy of available heats of formation are less well-known. PMID:26588131

  16. Accurate verification of the conserved-vector-current and standard-model predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Sirlin, A.; Zucchini, R.

    1986-10-20

    An approximate analytic calculation of O(Z..cap alpha../sup 2/) corrections to Fermi decays is presented. When the analysis of Koslowsky et al. is modified to take into account the new results, it is found that each of the eight accurately studied scrFt values differs from the average by approx. <1sigma, thus significantly improving the comparison of experiments with conserved-vector-current predictions. The new scrFt values are lower than before, which also brings experiments into very good agreement with the three-generation standard model, at the level of its quantum corrections.

  17. Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

    2011-01-01

    A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

  18. State Test Results Are Predictable

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tienken, Christopher H.

    2014-01-01

    Out-of-school, community demographic and family-level variables have an important influence on student achievement as measured by large-scale standardized tests. Studies described here demonstrated that about half of the test score is accounted for by variables outside the control of teachers and school administrators. The results from these…

  19. Toward an Accurate Prediction of the Arrival Time of Geomagnetic-Effective Coronal Mass Ejections

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, T.; Wang, Y.; Wan, L.; Cheng, X.; Ding, M.; Zhang, J.

    2015-12-01

    Accurately predicting the arrival of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) to the Earth based on remote images is of critical significance for the study of space weather. Here we make a statistical study of 21 Earth-directed CMEs, specifically exploring the relationship between CME initial speeds and transit times. The initial speed of a CME is obtained by fitting the CME with the Graduated Cylindrical Shell model and is thus free of projection effects. We then use the drag force model to fit results of the transit time versus the initial speed. By adopting different drag regimes, i.e., the viscous, aerodynamics, and hybrid regimes, we get similar results, with a least mean estimation error of the hybrid model of 12.9 hr. CMEs with a propagation angle (the angle between the propagation direction and the Sun-Earth line) larger than their half-angular widths arrive at the Earth with an angular deviation caused by factors other than the radial solar wind drag. The drag force model cannot be reliably applied to such events. If we exclude these events in the sample, the prediction accuracy can be improved, i.e., the estimation error reduces to 6.8 hr. This work suggests that it is viable to predict the arrival time of CMEs to the Earth based on the initial parameters with fairly good accuracy. Thus, it provides a method of forecasting space weather 1-5 days following the occurrence of CMEs.

  20. Intermolecular potentials and the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water

    SciTech Connect

    Shvab, I.; Sadus, Richard J.

    2013-11-21

    The ability of intermolecular potentials to correctly predict the thermodynamic properties of liquid water at a density of 0.998 g/cm{sup 3} for a wide range of temperatures (298–650 K) and pressures (0.1–700 MPa) is investigated. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for the pressure, thermal pressure coefficient, thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, and Joule-Thomson coefficient of liquid water using the non-polarizable SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials. The results are compared with both experiment data and results obtained from the ab initio-based Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine non-additive (MCYna) [J. Li, Z. Zhou, and R. J. Sadus, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 154509 (2007)] potential, which includes polarization contributions. The data clearly indicate that both the SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials are only in qualitative agreement with experiment, whereas the polarizable MCYna potential predicts some properties within experimental uncertainty. This highlights the importance of polarizability for the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water, particularly at temperatures beyond 298 K.

  1. ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    printability of defects at wafer level and automates the process of defect dispositioning from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. It first eliminates false defects due to registration, focus errors, image capture errors and random noise caused during inspection. For the remaining real defects, actual mask-like contours are generated using the Calibre® ILT solution [1][2], which is enhanced to predict the actual mask contours from high resolution defect images. It enables accurate prediction of defect contours, which is not possible from images captured using inspection machine because some information is already lost due to optical effects. Calibre's simulation engine is used to generate images at wafer level using scanner optical conditions and mask-like contours as input. The tool then analyses simulated images and predicts defect printability. It automatically calculates maximum CD variation and decides which defects are severe to affect patterns on wafer. In this paper, we assess the printability of defects for the mask of advanced technology nodes. In particular, we will compare the recovered mask contours with contours extracted from SEM image of the mask and compare simulation results with AIMSTM for a variety of defects and patterns. The results of printability assessment and the accuracy of comparison are presented in this paper. We also suggest how this method can be extended to predict printability of defects identified on EUV photomasks.

  2. A Single Linear Prediction Filter that Accurately Predicts the AL Index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    McPherron, R. L.; Chu, X.

    2015-12-01

    The AL index is a measure of the strength of the westward electrojet flowing along the auroral oval. It has two components: one from the global DP-2 current system and a second from the DP-1 current that is more localized near midnight. It is generally believed that the index a very poor measure of these currents because of its dependence on the distance of stations from the source of the two currents. In fact over season and solar cycle the coupling strength defined as the steady state ratio of the output AL to the input coupling function varies by a factor of four. There are four factors that lead to this variation. First is the equinoctial effect that modulates coupling strength with peaks (strongest coupling) at the equinoxes. Second is the saturation of the polar cap potential which decreases coupling strength as the strength of the driver increases. Since saturation occurs more frequently at solar maximum we obtain the result that maximum coupling strength occurs at equinox at solar minimum. A third factor is ionospheric conductivity with stronger coupling at summer solstice as compared to winter. The fourth factor is the definition of a solar wind coupling function appropriate to a given index. We have developed an optimum coupling function depending on solar wind speed, density, transverse magnetic field, and IMF clock angle which is better than previous functions. Using this we have determined the seasonal variation of coupling strength and developed an inverse function that modulates the optimum coupling function so that all seasonal variation is removed. In a similar manner we have determined the dependence of coupling strength on solar wind driver strength. The inverse of this function is used to scale a linear prediction filter thus eliminating the dependence on driver strength. Our result is a single linear filter that is adjusted in a nonlinear manner by driver strength and an optimum coupling function that is seasonal modulated. Together this

  3. Direct Pressure Monitoring Accurately Predicts Pulmonary Vein Occlusion During Cryoballoon Ablation

    PubMed Central

    Kosmidou, Ioanna; Wooden, Shannnon; Jones, Brian; Deering, Thomas; Wickliffe, Andrew; Dan, Dan

    2013-01-01

    Cryoballoon ablation (CBA) is an established therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF). Pulmonary vein (PV) occlusion is essential for achieving antral contact and PV isolation and is typically assessed by contrast injection. We present a novel method of direct pressure monitoring for assessment of PV occlusion. Transcatheter pressure is monitored during balloon advancement to the PV antrum. Pressure is recorded via a single pressure transducer connected to the inner lumen of the cryoballoon. Pressure curve characteristics are used to assess occlusion in conjunction with fluoroscopic or intracardiac echocardiography (ICE) guidance. PV occlusion is confirmed when loss of typical left atrial (LA) pressure waveform is observed with recordings of PA pressure characteristics (no A wave and rapid V wave upstroke). Complete pulmonary vein occlusion as assessed with this technique has been confirmed with concurrent contrast utilization during the initial testing of the technique and has been shown to be highly accurate and readily reproducible. We evaluated the efficacy of this novel technique in 35 patients. A total of 128 veins were assessed for occlusion with the cryoballoon utilizing the pressure monitoring technique; occlusive pressure was demonstrated in 113 veins with resultant successful pulmonary vein isolation in 111 veins (98.2%). Occlusion was confirmed with subsequent contrast injection during the initial ten procedures, after which contrast utilization was rapidly reduced or eliminated given the highly accurate identification of occlusive pressure waveform with limited initial training. Verification of PV occlusive pressure during CBA is a novel approach to assessing effective PV occlusion and it accurately predicts electrical isolation. Utilization of this method results in significant decrease in fluoroscopy time and volume of contrast. PMID:23485956

  4. A fast and accurate method to predict 2D and 3D aerodynamic boundary layer flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bijleveld, H. A.; Veldman, A. E. P.

    2014-12-01

    A quasi-simultaneous interaction method is applied to predict 2D and 3D aerodynamic flows. This method is suitable for offshore wind turbine design software as it is a very accurate and computationally reasonably cheap method. This study shows the results for a NACA 0012 airfoil. The two applied solvers converge to the experimental values when the grid is refined. We also show that in separation the eigenvalues remain positive thus avoiding the Goldstein singularity at separation. In 3D we show a flow over a dent in which separation occurs. A rotating flat plat is used to show the applicability of the method for rotating flows. The shown capabilities of the method indicate that the quasi-simultaneous interaction method is suitable for design methods for offshore wind turbine blades.

  5. Distance scaling method for accurate prediction of slowly varying magnetic fields in satellite missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zacharias, Panagiotis P.; Chatzineofytou, Elpida G.; Spantideas, Sotirios T.; Capsalis, Christos N.

    2016-07-01

    In the present work, the determination of the magnetic behavior of localized magnetic sources from near-field measurements is examined. The distance power law of the magnetic field fall-off is used in various cases to accurately predict the magnetic signature of an equipment under test (EUT) consisting of multiple alternating current (AC) magnetic sources. Therefore, parameters concerning the location of the observation points (magnetometers) are studied towards this scope. The results clearly show that these parameters are independent of the EUT's size and layout. Additionally, the techniques developed in the present study enable the placing of the magnetometers close to the EUT, thus achieving high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Finally, the proposed method is verified by real measurements, using a mobile phone as an EUT.

  6. Accurate prediction of solvent accessibility using neural networks-based regression.

    PubMed

    Adamczak, Rafał; Porollo, Aleksey; Meller, Jarosław

    2004-09-01

    Accurate prediction of relative solvent accessibilities (RSAs) of amino acid residues in proteins may be used to facilitate protein structure prediction and functional annotation. Toward that goal we developed a novel method for improved prediction of RSAs. Contrary to other machine learning-based methods from the literature, we do not impose a classification problem with arbitrary boundaries between the classes. Instead, we seek a continuous approximation of the real-value RSA using nonlinear regression, with several feed forward and recurrent neural networks, which are then combined into a consensus predictor. A set of 860 protein structures derived from the PFAM database was used for training, whereas validation of the results was carefully performed on several nonredundant control sets comprising a total of 603 structures derived from new Protein Data Bank structures and had no homology to proteins included in the training. Two classes of alternative predictors were developed for comparison with the regression-based approach: one based on the standard classification approach and the other based on a semicontinuous approximation with the so-called thermometer encoding. Furthermore, a weighted approximation, with errors being scaled by the observed levels of variability in RSA for equivalent residues in families of homologous structures, was applied in order to improve the results. The effects of including evolutionary profiles and the growth of sequence databases were assessed. In accord with the observed levels of variability in RSA for different ranges of RSA values, the regression accuracy is higher for buried than for exposed residues, with overall 15.3-15.8% mean absolute errors and correlation coefficients between the predicted and experimental values of 0.64-0.67 on different control sets. The new method outperforms classification-based algorithms when the real value predictions are projected onto two-class classification problems with several commonly

  7. Highly Accurate Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions via Incorporating Evolutionary Information and Physicochemical Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zheng-Wei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Gui, Jie; Nie, Ru

    2016-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) occur at almost all levels of cell functions and play crucial roles in various cellular processes. Thus, identification of PPIs is critical for deciphering the molecular mechanisms and further providing insight into biological processes. Although a variety of high-throughput experimental techniques have been developed to identify PPIs, existing PPI pairs by experimental approaches only cover a small fraction of the whole PPI networks, and further, those approaches hold inherent disadvantages, such as being time-consuming, expensive, and having high false positive rate. Therefore, it is urgent and imperative to develop automatic in silico approaches to predict PPIs efficiently and accurately. In this article, we propose a novel mixture of physicochemical and evolutionary-based feature extraction method for predicting PPIs using our newly developed discriminative vector machine (DVM) classifier. The improvements of the proposed method mainly consist in introducing an effective feature extraction method that can capture discriminative features from the evolutionary-based information and physicochemical characteristics, and then a powerful and robust DVM classifier is employed. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that DVM model is applied to the field of bioinformatics. When applying the proposed method to the Yeast and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) datasets, we obtain excellent prediction accuracies of 94.35% and 90.61%, respectively. The computational results indicate that our method is effective and robust for predicting PPIs, and can be taken as a useful supplementary tool to the traditional experimental methods for future proteomics research. PMID:27571061

  8. Highly Accurate Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions via Incorporating Evolutionary Information and Physicochemical Characteristics.

    PubMed

    Li, Zheng-Wei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Gui, Jie; Nie, Ru

    2016-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) occur at almost all levels of cell functions and play crucial roles in various cellular processes. Thus, identification of PPIs is critical for deciphering the molecular mechanisms and further providing insight into biological processes. Although a variety of high-throughput experimental techniques have been developed to identify PPIs, existing PPI pairs by experimental approaches only cover a small fraction of the whole PPI networks, and further, those approaches hold inherent disadvantages, such as being time-consuming, expensive, and having high false positive rate. Therefore, it is urgent and imperative to develop automatic in silico approaches to predict PPIs efficiently and accurately. In this article, we propose a novel mixture of physicochemical and evolutionary-based feature extraction method for predicting PPIs using our newly developed discriminative vector machine (DVM) classifier. The improvements of the proposed method mainly consist in introducing an effective feature extraction method that can capture discriminative features from the evolutionary-based information and physicochemical characteristics, and then a powerful and robust DVM classifier is employed. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that DVM model is applied to the field of bioinformatics. When applying the proposed method to the Yeast and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) datasets, we obtain excellent prediction accuracies of 94.35% and 90.61%, respectively. The computational results indicate that our method is effective and robust for predicting PPIs, and can be taken as a useful supplementary tool to the traditional experimental methods for future proteomics research. PMID:27571061

  9. Highly Accurate Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions via Incorporating Evolutionary Information and Physicochemical Characteristics.

    PubMed

    Li, Zheng-Wei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Gui, Jie; Nie, Ru

    2016-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) occur at almost all levels of cell functions and play crucial roles in various cellular processes. Thus, identification of PPIs is critical for deciphering the molecular mechanisms and further providing insight into biological processes. Although a variety of high-throughput experimental techniques have been developed to identify PPIs, existing PPI pairs by experimental approaches only cover a small fraction of the whole PPI networks, and further, those approaches hold inherent disadvantages, such as being time-consuming, expensive, and having high false positive rate. Therefore, it is urgent and imperative to develop automatic in silico approaches to predict PPIs efficiently and accurately. In this article, we propose a novel mixture of physicochemical and evolutionary-based feature extraction method for predicting PPIs using our newly developed discriminative vector machine (DVM) classifier. The improvements of the proposed method mainly consist in introducing an effective feature extraction method that can capture discriminative features from the evolutionary-based information and physicochemical characteristics, and then a powerful and robust DVM classifier is employed. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that DVM model is applied to the field of bioinformatics. When applying the proposed method to the Yeast and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) datasets, we obtain excellent prediction accuracies of 94.35% and 90.61%, respectively. The computational results indicate that our method is effective and robust for predicting PPIs, and can be taken as a useful supplementary tool to the traditional experimental methods for future proteomics research.

  10. Accurate load prediction by BEM with airfoil data from 3D RANS simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Marc S.; Nitzsche, Jens; Hennings, Holger

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, two methods for the extraction of airfoil coefficients from 3D CFD simulations of a wind turbine rotor are investigated, and these coefficients are used to improve the load prediction of a BEM code. The coefficients are extracted from a number of steady RANS simulations, using either averaging of velocities in annular sections, or an inverse BEM approach for determination of the induction factors in the rotor plane. It is shown that these 3D rotor polars are able to capture the rotational augmentation at the inner part of the blade as well as the load reduction by 3D effects close to the blade tip. They are used as input to a simple BEM code and the results of this BEM with 3D rotor polars are compared to the predictions of BEM with 2D airfoil coefficients plus common empirical corrections for stall delay and tip loss. While BEM with 2D airfoil coefficients produces a very different radial distribution of loads than the RANS simulation, the BEM with 3D rotor polars manages to reproduce the loads from RANS very accurately for a variety of load cases, as long as the blade pitch angle is not too different from the cases from which the polars were extracted.

  11. ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

    SciTech Connect

    Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong; Zhang, Tao; Akiyama, Jennifer A.; Holt, Amy; Plajzer-Frick, Ingrid; Shoukry, Malak; Wright, Crystal; Chen, Feng; Afzal, Veena; Ren, Bing; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

    2009-02-01

    A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. We tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.

  12. Mind-set and close relationships: when bias leads to (In)accurate predictions.

    PubMed

    Gagné, F M; Lydon, J E

    2001-07-01

    The authors investigated whether mind-set influences the accuracy of relationship predictions. Because people are more biased in their information processing when thinking about implementing an important goal, relationship predictions made in an implemental mind-set were expected to be less accurate than those made in a more impartial deliberative mind-set. In Study 1, open-ended thoughts of students about to leave for university were coded for mind-set. In Study 2, mind-set about a major life goal was assessed using a self-report measure. In Study 3, mind-set was experimentally manipulated. Overall, mind-set interacted with forecasts to predict relationship survival. Forecasts were more accurate in a deliberative mind-set than in an implemental mind-set. This effect was more pronounced for long-term than for short-term relationship survival. Finally, deliberatives were not pessimistic; implementals were unduly optimistic.

  13. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction.

    PubMed

    Sahraeian, Sayed M; Luo, Kevin R; Brenner, Steven E

    2015-07-01

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access to precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. The SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.

  14. Development of a New Model for Accurate Prediction of Cloud Water Deposition on Vegetation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Katata, G.; Nagai, H.; Wrzesinsky, T.; Klemm, O.; Eugster, W.; Burkard, R.

    2006-12-01

    Scarcity of water resources in arid and semi-arid areas is of great concern in the light of population growth and food shortages. Several experiments focusing on cloud (fog) water deposition on the land surface suggest that cloud water plays an important role in water resource in such regions. A one-dimensional vegetation model including the process of cloud water deposition on vegetation has been developed to better predict cloud water deposition on the vegetation. New schemes to calculate capture efficiency of leaf, cloud droplet size distribution, and gravitational flux of cloud water were incorporated in the model. Model calculations were compared with the data acquired at the Norway spruce forest at the Waldstein site, Germany. High performance of the model was confirmed by comparisons of calculated net radiation, sensible and latent heat, and cloud water fluxes over the forest with measurements. The present model provided a better prediction of measured turbulent and gravitational fluxes of cloud water over the canopy than the Lovett model, which is a commonly used cloud water deposition model. Detailed calculations of evapotranspiration and of turbulent exchange of heat and water vapor within the canopy and the modifications are necessary for accurate prediction of cloud water deposition. Numerical experiments to examine the dependence of cloud water deposition on the vegetation species (coniferous and broad-leaved trees, flat and cylindrical grasses) and structures (Leaf Area Index (LAI) and canopy height) are performed using the presented model. The results indicate that the differences of leaf shape and size have a large impact on cloud water deposition. Cloud water deposition also varies with the growth of vegetation and seasonal change of LAI. We found that the coniferous trees whose height and LAI are 24 m and 2.0 m2m-2, respectively, produce the largest amount of cloud water deposition in all combinations of vegetation species and structures in the

  15. Can radiation therapy treatment planning system accurately predict surface doses in postmastectomy radiation therapy patients?

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Sharon; Back, Michael; Tan, Poh Wee; Lee, Khai Mun; Baggarley, Shaun; Lu, Jaide Jay

    2012-07-01

    Skin doses have been an important factor in the dose prescription for breast radiotherapy. Recent advances in radiotherapy treatment techniques, such as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and new treatment schemes such as hypofractionated breast therapy have made the precise determination of the surface dose necessary. Detailed information of the dose at various depths of the skin is also critical in designing new treatment strategies. The purpose of this work was to assess the accuracy of surface dose calculation by a clinically used treatment planning system and those measured by thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) in a customized chest wall phantom. This study involved the construction of a chest wall phantom for skin dose assessment. Seven TLDs were distributed throughout each right chest wall phantom to give adequate representation of measured radiation doses. Point doses from the CMS Xio Registered-Sign treatment planning system (TPS) were calculated for each relevant TLD positions and results correlated. There were no significant difference between measured absorbed dose by TLD and calculated doses by the TPS (p > 0.05 (1-tailed). Dose accuracy of up to 2.21% was found. The deviations from the calculated absorbed doses were overall larger (3.4%) when wedges and bolus were used. 3D radiotherapy TPS is a useful and accurate tool to assess the accuracy of surface dose. Our studies have shown that radiation treatment accuracy expressed as a comparison between calculated doses (by TPS) and measured doses (by TLD dosimetry) can be accurately predicted for tangential treatment of the chest wall after mastectomy.

  16. How accurately can we predict the melting points of drug-like compounds?

    PubMed

    Tetko, Igor V; Sushko, Yurii; Novotarskyi, Sergii; Patiny, Luc; Kondratov, Ivan; Petrenko, Alexander E; Charochkina, Larisa; Asiri, Abdullah M

    2014-12-22

    This article contributes a highly accurate model for predicting the melting points (MPs) of medicinal chemistry compounds. The model was developed using the largest published data set, comprising more than 47k compounds. The distributions of MPs in drug-like and drug lead sets showed that >90% of molecules melt within [50,250]°C. The final model calculated an RMSE of less than 33 °C for molecules from this temperature interval, which is the most important for medicinal chemistry users. This performance was achieved using a consensus model that performed calculations to a significantly higher accuracy than the individual models. We found that compounds with reactive and unstable groups were overrepresented among outlying compounds. These compounds could decompose during storage or measurement, thus introducing experimental errors. While filtering the data by removing outliers generally increased the accuracy of individual models, it did not significantly affect the results of the consensus models. Three analyzed distance to models did not allow us to flag molecules, which had MP values fell outside the applicability domain of the model. We believe that this negative result and the public availability of data from this article will encourage future studies to develop better approaches to define the applicability domain of models. The final model, MP data, and identified reactive groups are available online at http://ochem.eu/article/55638.

  17. How accurately can we predict the melting points of drug-like compounds?

    PubMed

    Tetko, Igor V; Sushko, Yurii; Novotarskyi, Sergii; Patiny, Luc; Kondratov, Ivan; Petrenko, Alexander E; Charochkina, Larisa; Asiri, Abdullah M

    2014-12-22

    This article contributes a highly accurate model for predicting the melting points (MPs) of medicinal chemistry compounds. The model was developed using the largest published data set, comprising more than 47k compounds. The distributions of MPs in drug-like and drug lead sets showed that >90% of molecules melt within [50,250]°C. The final model calculated an RMSE of less than 33 °C for molecules from this temperature interval, which is the most important for medicinal chemistry users. This performance was achieved using a consensus model that performed calculations to a significantly higher accuracy than the individual models. We found that compounds with reactive and unstable groups were overrepresented among outlying compounds. These compounds could decompose during storage or measurement, thus introducing experimental errors. While filtering the data by removing outliers generally increased the accuracy of individual models, it did not significantly affect the results of the consensus models. Three analyzed distance to models did not allow us to flag molecules, which had MP values fell outside the applicability domain of the model. We believe that this negative result and the public availability of data from this article will encourage future studies to develop better approaches to define the applicability domain of models. The final model, MP data, and identified reactive groups are available online at http://ochem.eu/article/55638. PMID:25489863

  18. A survey of factors contributing to accurate theoretical predictions of atomization energies and molecular structures

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Feller, David; Peterson, Kirk A.; Dixon, David A.

    2008-11-01

    High level electronic structure predictions of thermochemical properties and molecular structure are capable of accuracy rivaling the very best experimental measurements as a result of rapid advances in hardware, software, and methodology. Despite the progress, real world limitations require practical approaches designed for handling general chemical systems that rely on composite strategies in which a single, intractable calculation is replaced by a series of smaller calculations. As typically implemented, these approaches produce a final, or "best," estimate that is constructed from one major component, fine-tuned by multiple corrections that are assumed to be additive. Though individually much smaller than the original, unmanageable computational problem, these corrections are nonetheless extremely costly. This study presents a survey of the widely varying magnitude of the most important components contributing to the atomization energies and structures of 106 small molecules. It combines large Gaussian basis sets and coupled cluster theory up to quadruple excitations for all systems. In selected cases, the effects of quintuple excitations and/or full configuration interaction were also considered. The availability of reliable experimental data for most of the molecules permits an expanded statistical analysis of the accuracy of the approach. In cases where reliable experimental information is currently unavailable, the present results are expected to provide some of the most accurate benchmark values available.

  19. A review of the kinetic detail required for accurate predictions of normal shock waves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Muntz, E. P.; Erwin, Daniel A.; Pham-Van-diep, Gerald C.

    1991-01-01

    Several aspects of the kinetic models used in the collision phase of Monte Carlo direct simulations have been studied. Accurate molecular velocity distribution function predictions require a significantly increased number of computational cells in one maximum slope shock thickness, compared to predictions of macroscopic properties. The shape of the highly repulsive portion of the interatomic potential for argon is not well modeled by conventional interatomic potentials; this portion of the potential controls high Mach number shock thickness predictions, indicating that the specification of the energetic repulsive portion of interatomic or intermolecular potentials must be chosen with care for correct modeling of nonequilibrium flows at high temperatures. It has been shown for inverse power potentials that the assumption of variable hard sphere scattering provides accurate predictions of the macroscopic properties in shock waves, by comparison with simulations in which differential scattering is employed in the collision phase. On the other hand, velocity distribution functions are not well predicted by the variable hard sphere scattering model for softer potentials at higher Mach numbers.

  20. Accurate prediction of band gaps and optical properties of HfO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ondračka, Pavel; Holec, David; Nečas, David; Zajíčková, Lenka

    2016-10-01

    We report on optical properties of various polymorphs of hafnia predicted within the framework of density functional theory. The full potential linearised augmented plane wave method was employed together with the Tran-Blaha modified Becke-Johnson potential (TB-mBJ) for exchange and local density approximation for correlation. Unit cells of monoclinic, cubic and tetragonal crystalline, and a simulated annealing-based model of amorphous hafnia were fully relaxed with respect to internal positions and lattice parameters. Electronic structures and band gaps for monoclinic, cubic, tetragonal and amorphous hafnia were calculated using three different TB-mBJ parametrisations and the results were critically compared with the available experimental and theoretical reports. Conceptual differences between a straightforward comparison of experimental measurements to a calculated band gap on the one hand and to a whole electronic structure (density of electronic states) on the other hand, were pointed out, suggesting the latter should be used whenever possible. Finally, dielectric functions were calculated at two levels, using the random phase approximation without local field effects and with a more accurate Bethe-Salpether equation (BSE) to account for excitonic effects. We conclude that a satisfactory agreement with experimental data for HfO2 was obtained only in the latter case.

  1. Accurate prediction of the linear viscoelastic properties of highly entangled mono and bidisperse polymer melts.

    PubMed

    Stephanou, Pavlos S; Mavrantzas, Vlasis G

    2014-06-01

    We present a hierarchical computational methodology which permits the accurate prediction of the linear viscoelastic properties of entangled polymer melts directly from the chemical structure, chemical composition, and molecular architecture of the constituent chains. The method entails three steps: execution of long molecular dynamics simulations with moderately entangled polymer melts, self-consistent mapping of the accumulated trajectories onto a tube model and parameterization or fine-tuning of the model on the basis of detailed simulation data, and use of the modified tube model to predict the linear viscoelastic properties of significantly higher molecular weight (MW) melts of the same polymer. Predictions are reported for the zero-shear-rate viscosity η0 and the spectra of storage G'(ω) and loss G″(ω) moduli for several mono and bidisperse cis- and trans-1,4 polybutadiene melts as well as for their MW dependence, and are found to be in remarkable agreement with experimentally measured rheological data. PMID:24908037

  2. Accurate prediction of the linear viscoelastic properties of highly entangled mono and bidisperse polymer melts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Stephanou, Pavlos S.; Mavrantzas, Vlasis G.

    2014-06-01

    We present a hierarchical computational methodology which permits the accurate prediction of the linear viscoelastic properties of entangled polymer melts directly from the chemical structure, chemical composition, and molecular architecture of the constituent chains. The method entails three steps: execution of long molecular dynamics simulations with moderately entangled polymer melts, self-consistent mapping of the accumulated trajectories onto a tube model and parameterization or fine-tuning of the model on the basis of detailed simulation data, and use of the modified tube model to predict the linear viscoelastic properties of significantly higher molecular weight (MW) melts of the same polymer. Predictions are reported for the zero-shear-rate viscosity η0 and the spectra of storage G'(ω) and loss G″(ω) moduli for several mono and bidisperse cis- and trans-1,4 polybutadiene melts as well as for their MW dependence, and are found to be in remarkable agreement with experimentally measured rheological data.

  3. Unilateral Prostate Cancer Cannot be Accurately Predicted in Low-Risk Patients

    SciTech Connect

    Isbarn, Hendrik; Karakiewicz, Pierre I.; Vogel, Susanne

    2010-07-01

    Purpose: Hemiablative therapy (HAT) is increasing in popularity for treatment of patients with low-risk prostate cancer (PCa). The validity of this therapeutic modality, which exclusively treats PCa within a single prostate lobe, rests on accurate staging. We tested the accuracy of unilaterally unremarkable biopsy findings in cases of low-risk PCa patients who are potential candidates for HAT. Methods and Materials: The study population consisted of 243 men with clinical stage {<=}T2a, a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) concentration of <10 ng/ml, a biopsy-proven Gleason sum of {<=}6, and a maximum of 2 ipsilateral positive biopsy results out of 10 or more cores. All men underwent a radical prostatectomy, and pathology stage was used as the gold standard. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were tested for significant predictors of unilateral, organ-confined PCa. These predictors consisted of PSA, %fPSA (defined as the quotient of free [uncomplexed] PSA divided by the total PSA), clinical stage (T2a vs. T1c), gland volume, and number of positive biopsy cores (2 vs. 1). Results: Despite unilateral stage at biopsy, bilateral or even non-organ-confined PCa was reported in 64% of all patients. In multivariable analyses, no variable could clearly and independently predict the presence of unilateral PCa. This was reflected in an overall accuracy of 58% (95% confidence interval, 50.6-65.8%). Conclusions: Two-thirds of patients with unilateral low-risk PCa, confirmed by clinical stage and biopsy findings, have bilateral or non-organ-confined PCa at radical prostatectomy. This alarming finding questions the safety and validity of HAT.

  4. A Novel Method for Accurate Operon Predictions in All SequencedProkaryotes

    SciTech Connect

    Price, Morgan N.; Huang, Katherine H.; Alm, Eric J.; Arkin, Adam P.

    2004-12-01

    We combine comparative genomic measures and the distance separating adjacent genes to predict operons in 124 completely sequenced prokaryotic genomes. Our method automatically tailors itself to each genome using sequence information alone, and thus can be applied to any prokaryote. For Escherichia coli K12 and Bacillus subtilis, our method is 85 and 83% accurate, respectively, which is similar to the accuracy of methods that use the same features but are trained on experimentally characterized transcripts. In Halobacterium NRC-1 and in Helicobacterpylori, our method correctly infers that genes in operons are separated by shorter distances than they are in E.coli, and its predictions using distance alone are more accurate than distance-only predictions trained on a database of E.coli transcripts. We use microarray data from sixphylogenetically diverse prokaryotes to show that combining intergenic distance with comparative genomic measures further improves accuracy and that our method is broadly effective. Finally, we survey operon structure across 124 genomes, and find several surprises: H.pylori has many operons, contrary to previous reports; Bacillus anthracis has an unusual number of pseudogenes within conserved operons; and Synechocystis PCC6803 has many operons even though it has unusually wide spacings between conserved adjacent genes.

  5. Machine Learning Predictions of Molecular Properties: Accurate Many-Body Potentials and Nonlocality in Chemical Space.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-06-18

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. In addition, the same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.

  6. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Müller, Klaus -Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-06-04

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.

  7. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    DOE PAGES

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Müller, Klaus -Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-06-04

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstratemore » prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.« less

  8. Machine Learning Predictions of Molecular Properties: Accurate Many-Body Potentials and Nonlocality in Chemical Space

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. In addition, the same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies. PMID:26113956

  9. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    DOE PAGES

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    2015-05-15

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access tomore » precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. Lastly, the SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.« less

  10. Accurate Prediction of Severe Allergic Reactions by a Small Set of Environmental Parameters (NDVI, Temperature)

    PubMed Central

    Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

    2015-01-01

    Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions. PMID:25794106

  11. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction.

    PubMed

    Sahraeian, Sayed M; Luo, Kevin R; Brenner, Steven E

    2015-07-01

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access to precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. The SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded. PMID:25979264

  12. Microstructure-Dependent Gas Adsorption: Accurate Predictions of Methane Uptake in Nanoporous Carbons

    SciTech Connect

    Ihm, Yungok; Cooper, Valentino R; Gallego, Nidia C; Contescu, Cristian I; Morris, James R

    2014-01-01

    We demonstrate a successful, efficient framework for predicting gas adsorption properties in real materials based on first-principles calculations, with a specific comparison of experiment and theory for methane adsorption in activated carbons. These carbon materials have different pore size distributions, leading to a variety of uptake characteristics. Utilizing these distributions, we accurately predict experimental uptakes and heats of adsorption without empirical potentials or lengthy simulations. We demonstrate that materials with smaller pores have higher heats of adsorption, leading to a higher gas density in these pores. This pore-size dependence must be accounted for, in order to predict and understand the adsorption behavior. The theoretical approach combines: (1) ab initio calculations with a van der Waals density functional to determine adsorbent-adsorbate interactions, and (2) a thermodynamic method that predicts equilibrium adsorption densities by directly incorporating the calculated potential energy surface in a slit pore model. The predicted uptake at P=20 bar and T=298 K is in excellent agreement for all five activated carbon materials used. This approach uses only the pore-size distribution as an input, with no fitting parameters or empirical adsorbent-adsorbate interactions, and thus can be easily applied to other adsorbent-adsorbate combinations.

  13. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    2015-05-15

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access to precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. Lastly, the SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.

  14. Change in heat capacity accurately predicts vibrational coupling in enzyme catalyzed reactions.

    PubMed

    Arcus, Vickery L; Pudney, Christopher R

    2015-08-01

    The temperature dependence of kinetic isotope effects (KIEs) have been used to infer the vibrational coupling of the protein and or substrate to the reaction coordinate, particularly in enzyme-catalyzed hydrogen transfer reactions. We find that a new model for the temperature dependence of experimentally determined observed rate constants (macromolecular rate theory, MMRT) is able to accurately predict the occurrence of vibrational coupling, even where the temperature dependence of the KIE fails. This model, that incorporates the change in heat capacity for enzyme catalysis, demonstrates remarkable consistency with both experiment and theory and in many respects is more robust than models used at present.

  15. Predictive aging results in radiation environments

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

    1993-06-01

    We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

  16. Nonempirically Tuned Range-Separated DFT Accurately Predicts Both Fundamental and Excitation Gaps in DNA and RNA Nucleobases

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Using a nonempirically tuned range-separated DFT approach, we study both the quasiparticle properties (HOMO–LUMO fundamental gaps) and excitation energies of DNA and RNA nucleobases (adenine, thymine, cytosine, guanine, and uracil). Our calculations demonstrate that a physically motivated, first-principles tuned DFT approach accurately reproduces results from both experimental benchmarks and more computationally intensive techniques such as many-body GW theory. Furthermore, in the same set of nucleobases, we show that the nonempirical range-separated procedure also leads to significantly improved results for excitation energies compared to conventional DFT methods. The present results emphasize the importance of a nonempirically tuned range-separation approach for accurately predicting both fundamental and excitation gaps in DNA and RNA nucleobases. PMID:22904693

  17. Size-extensivity-corrected multireference configuration interaction schemes to accurately predict bond dissociation energies of oxygenated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Oyeyemi, Victor B.; Krisiloff, David B.; Keith, John A.; Libisch, Florian; Pavone, Michele; Carter, Emily A.

    2014-01-28

    Oxygenated hydrocarbons play important roles in combustion science as renewable fuels and additives, but many details about their combustion chemistry remain poorly understood. Although many methods exist for computing accurate electronic energies of molecules at equilibrium geometries, a consistent description of entire combustion reaction potential energy surfaces (PESs) requires multireference correlated wavefunction theories. Here we use bond dissociation energies (BDEs) as a foundational metric to benchmark methods based on multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) for several classes of oxygenated compounds (alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids, and methyl esters). We compare results from multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction to those utilizing a posteriori and a priori size-extensivity corrections, benchmarked against experiment and coupled cluster theory. We demonstrate that size-extensivity corrections are necessary for chemically accurate BDE predictions even in relatively small molecules and furnish examples of unphysical BDE predictions resulting from using too-small orbital active spaces. We also outline the specific challenges in using MRCI methods for carbonyl-containing compounds. The resulting complete basis set extrapolated, size-extensivity-corrected MRCI scheme produces BDEs generally accurate to within 1 kcal/mol, laying the foundation for this scheme's use on larger molecules and for more complex regions of combustion PESs.

  18. Size-extensivity-corrected multireference configuration interaction schemes to accurately predict bond dissociation energies of oxygenated hydrocarbons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oyeyemi, Victor B.; Krisiloff, David B.; Keith, John A.; Libisch, Florian; Pavone, Michele; Carter, Emily A.

    2014-01-01

    Oxygenated hydrocarbons play important roles in combustion science as renewable fuels and additives, but many details about their combustion chemistry remain poorly understood. Although many methods exist for computing accurate electronic energies of molecules at equilibrium geometries, a consistent description of entire combustion reaction potential energy surfaces (PESs) requires multireference correlated wavefunction theories. Here we use bond dissociation energies (BDEs) as a foundational metric to benchmark methods based on multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) for several classes of oxygenated compounds (alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids, and methyl esters). We compare results from multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction to those utilizing a posteriori and a priori size-extensivity corrections, benchmarked against experiment and coupled cluster theory. We demonstrate that size-extensivity corrections are necessary for chemically accurate BDE predictions even in relatively small molecules and furnish examples of unphysical BDE predictions resulting from using too-small orbital active spaces. We also outline the specific challenges in using MRCI methods for carbonyl-containing compounds. The resulting complete basis set extrapolated, size-extensivity-corrected MRCI scheme produces BDEs generally accurate to within 1 kcal/mol, laying the foundation for this scheme's use on larger molecules and for more complex regions of combustion PESs.

  19. Accurate prediction of cellular co-translational folding indicates proteins can switch from post- to co-translational folding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nissley, Daniel A.; Sharma, Ajeet K.; Ahmed, Nabeel; Friedrich, Ulrike A.; Kramer, Günter; Bukau, Bernd; O'Brien, Edward P.

    2016-02-01

    The rates at which domains fold and codons are translated are important factors in determining whether a nascent protein will co-translationally fold and function or misfold and malfunction. Here we develop a chemical kinetic model that calculates a protein domain's co-translational folding curve during synthesis using only the domain's bulk folding and unfolding rates and codon translation rates. We show that this model accurately predicts the course of co-translational folding measured in vivo for four different protein molecules. We then make predictions for a number of different proteins in yeast and find that synonymous codon substitutions, which change translation-elongation rates, can switch some protein domains from folding post-translationally to folding co-translationally--a result consistent with previous experimental studies. Our approach explains essential features of co-translational folding curves and predicts how varying the translation rate at different codon positions along a transcript's coding sequence affects this self-assembly process.

  20. Accurate prediction of interfacial residues in two-domain proteins using evolutionary information: implications for three-dimensional modeling.

    PubMed

    Bhaskara, Ramachandra M; Padhi, Amrita; Srinivasan, Narayanaswamy

    2014-07-01

    With the preponderance of multidomain proteins in eukaryotic genomes, it is essential to recognize the constituent domains and their functions. Often function involves communications across the domain interfaces, and the knowledge of the interacting sites is essential to our understanding of the structure-function relationship. Using evolutionary information extracted from homologous domains in at least two diverse domain architectures (single and multidomain), we predict the interface residues corresponding to domains from the two-domain proteins. We also use information from the three-dimensional structures of individual domains of two-domain proteins to train naïve Bayes classifier model to predict the interfacial residues. Our predictions are highly accurate (∼85%) and specific (∼95%) to the domain-domain interfaces. This method is specific to multidomain proteins which contain domains in at least more than one protein architectural context. Using predicted residues to constrain domain-domain interaction, rigid-body docking was able to provide us with accurate full-length protein structures with correct orientation of domains. We believe that these results can be of considerable interest toward rational protein and interaction design, apart from providing us with valuable information on the nature of interactions.

  1. A simple accurate method to predict time of ponding under variable intensity rainfall

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Assouline, S.; Selker, J. S.; Parlange, J.-Y.

    2007-03-01

    The prediction of the time to ponding following commencement of rainfall is fundamental to hydrologic prediction of flood, erosion, and infiltration. Most of the studies to date have focused on prediction of ponding resulting from simple rainfall patterns. This approach was suitable to rainfall reported as average values over intervals of up to a day but does not take advantage of knowledge of the complex patterns of actual rainfall now commonly recorded electronically. A straightforward approach to include the instantaneous rainfall record in the prediction of ponding time and excess rainfall using only the infiltration capacity curve is presented. This method is tested against a numerical solution of the Richards equation on the basis of an actual rainfall record. The predicted time to ponding showed mean error ≤7% for a broad range of soils, with and without surface sealing. In contrast, the standard predictions had average errors of 87%, and worst-case errors exceeding a factor of 10. In addition to errors intrinsic in the modeling framework itself, errors that arise from averaging actual rainfall records over reporting intervals were evaluated. Averaging actual rainfall records observed in Israel over periods of as little as 5 min significantly reduced predicted runoff (75% for the sealed sandy loam and 46% for the silty clay loam), while hourly averaging gave complete lack of prediction of ponding in some of the cases.

  2. Combining Evolutionary Information and an Iterative Sampling Strategy for Accurate Protein Structure Prediction.

    PubMed

    Braun, Tatjana; Koehler Leman, Julia; Lange, Oliver F

    2015-12-01

    Recent work has shown that the accuracy of ab initio structure prediction can be significantly improved by integrating evolutionary information in form of intra-protein residue-residue contacts. Following this seminal result, much effort is put into the improvement of contact predictions. However, there is also a substantial need to develop structure prediction protocols tailored to the type of restraints gained by contact predictions. Here, we present a structure prediction protocol that combines evolutionary information with the resolution-adapted structural recombination approach of Rosetta, called RASREC. Compared to the classic Rosetta ab initio protocol, RASREC achieves improved sampling, better convergence and higher robustness against incorrect distance restraints, making it the ideal sampling strategy for the stated problem. To demonstrate the accuracy of our protocol, we tested the approach on a diverse set of 28 globular proteins. Our method is able to converge for 26 out of the 28 targets and improves the average TM-score of the entire benchmark set from 0.55 to 0.72 when compared to the top ranked models obtained by the EVFold web server using identical contact predictions. Using a smaller benchmark, we furthermore show that the prediction accuracy of our method is only slightly reduced when the contact prediction accuracy is comparatively low. This observation is of special interest for protein sequences that only have a limited number of homologs.

  3. The Compensatory Reserve For Early and Accurate Prediction Of Hemodynamic Compromise: A Review of the Underlying Physiology.

    PubMed

    Convertino, Victor A; Wirt, Michael D; Glenn, John F; Lein, Brian C

    2016-06-01

    Shock is deadly and unpredictable if it is not recognized and treated in early stages of hemorrhage. Unfortunately, measurements of standard vital signs that are displayed on current medical monitors fail to provide accurate or early indicators of shock because of physiological mechanisms that effectively compensate for blood loss. As a result of new insights provided by the latest research on the physiology of shock using human experimental models of controlled hemorrhage, it is now recognized that measurement of the body's reserve to compensate for reduced circulating blood volume is the single most important indicator for early and accurate assessment of shock. We have called this function the "compensatory reserve," which can be accurately assessed by real-time measurements of changes in the features of the arterial waveform. In this paper, the physiology underlying the development and evaluation of a new noninvasive technology that allows for real-time measurement of the compensatory reserve will be reviewed, with its clinical implications for earlier and more accurate prediction of shock. PMID:26950588

  4. Differential contribution of visual and auditory information to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of a visual stimulus.

    PubMed

    Park, Seoung Hoon; Kim, Seonjin; Kwon, MinHyuk; Christou, Evangelos A

    2016-03-01

    Vision and auditory information are critical for perception and to enhance the ability of an individual to respond accurately to a stimulus. However, it is unknown whether visual and auditory information contribute differentially to identify the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus. The purpose of this study was to determine the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction and rotational motion of the stimulus based on visual and auditory information. In this study, we recruited 9 expert table-tennis players and used table-tennis service as our experimental model. Participants watched recorded services with different levels of visual and auditory information. The goal was to anticipate the direction of the service (left or right) and the rotational motion of service (topspin, sidespin, or cut). We recorded their responses and quantified the following outcomes: (i) directional accuracy and (ii) rotational motion accuracy. The response accuracy was the accurate predictions relative to the total number of trials. The ability of the participants to predict the direction of the service accurately increased with additional visual information but not with auditory information. In contrast, the ability of the participants to predict the rotational motion of the service accurately increased with the addition of auditory information to visual information but not with additional visual information alone. In conclusion, this finding demonstrates that visual information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the direction of the stimulus, whereas additional auditory information enhances the ability of an individual to accurately predict the rotational motion of stimulus.

  5. In vitro transcription accurately predicts lac repressor phenotype in vivo in Escherichia coli

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    A multitude of studies have looked at the in vivo and in vitro behavior of the lac repressor binding to DNA and effector molecules in order to study transcriptional repression, however these studies are not always reconcilable. Here we use in vitro transcription to directly mimic the in vivo system in order to build a self consistent set of experiments to directly compare in vivo and in vitro genetic repression. A thermodynamic model of the lac repressor binding to operator DNA and effector is used to link DNA occupancy to either normalized in vitro mRNA product or normalized in vivo fluorescence of a regulated gene, YFP. An accurate measurement of repressor, DNA and effector concentrations were made both in vivo and in vitro allowing for direct modeling of the entire thermodynamic equilibrium. In vivo repression profiles are accurately predicted from the given in vitro parameters when molecular crowding is considered. Interestingly, our measured repressor–operator DNA affinity differs significantly from previous in vitro measurements. The literature values are unable to replicate in vivo binding data. We therefore conclude that the repressor-DNA affinity is much weaker than previously thought. This finding would suggest that in vitro techniques that are specifically designed to mimic the in vivo process may be necessary to replicate the native system. PMID:25097824

  6. Measuring solar reflectance Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    SciTech Connect

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul

    2010-05-14

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective 'cool colored' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland U.S. latitudes, this metric RE891BN can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {le} 5:12 [23{sup o}]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool-roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear-sky air mass one global horizontal ('AM1GH') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer.

  7. Measuring solar reflectance - Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    SciTech Connect

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul

    2010-09-15

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective ''cool colored'' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland US latitudes, this metric R{sub E891BN} can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {<=} 5:12 [23 ]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear sky air mass one global horizontal (''AM1GH'') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer. (author)

  8. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  9. A Simple and Accurate Model to Predict Responses to Multi-electrode Stimulation in the Retina.

    PubMed

    Maturana, Matias I; Apollo, Nicholas V; Hadjinicolaou, Alex E; Garrett, David J; Cloherty, Shaun L; Kameneva, Tatiana; Grayden, David B; Ibbotson, Michael R; Meffin, Hamish

    2016-04-01

    Implantable electrode arrays are widely used in therapeutic stimulation of the nervous system (e.g. cochlear, retinal, and cortical implants). Currently, most neural prostheses use serial stimulation (i.e. one electrode at a time) despite this severely limiting the repertoire of stimuli that can be applied. Methods to reliably predict the outcome of multi-electrode stimulation have not been available. Here, we demonstrate that a linear-nonlinear model accurately predicts neural responses to arbitrary patterns of stimulation using in vitro recordings from single retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) stimulated with a subretinal multi-electrode array. In the model, the stimulus is projected onto a low-dimensional subspace and then undergoes a nonlinear transformation to produce an estimate of spiking probability. The low-dimensional subspace is estimated using principal components analysis, which gives the neuron's electrical receptive field (ERF), i.e. the electrodes to which the neuron is most sensitive. Our model suggests that stimulation proportional to the ERF yields a higher efficacy given a fixed amount of power when compared to equal amplitude stimulation on up to three electrodes. We find that the model captures the responses of all the cells recorded in the study, suggesting that it will generalize to most cell types in the retina. The model is computationally efficient to evaluate and, therefore, appropriate for future real-time applications including stimulation strategies that make use of recorded neural activity to improve the stimulation strategy. PMID:27035143

  10. A Simple and Accurate Model to Predict Responses to Multi-electrode Stimulation in the Retina

    PubMed Central

    Maturana, Matias I.; Apollo, Nicholas V.; Hadjinicolaou, Alex E.; Garrett, David J.; Cloherty, Shaun L.; Kameneva, Tatiana; Grayden, David B.; Ibbotson, Michael R.; Meffin, Hamish

    2016-01-01

    Implantable electrode arrays are widely used in therapeutic stimulation of the nervous system (e.g. cochlear, retinal, and cortical implants). Currently, most neural prostheses use serial stimulation (i.e. one electrode at a time) despite this severely limiting the repertoire of stimuli that can be applied. Methods to reliably predict the outcome of multi-electrode stimulation have not been available. Here, we demonstrate that a linear-nonlinear model accurately predicts neural responses to arbitrary patterns of stimulation using in vitro recordings from single retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) stimulated with a subretinal multi-electrode array. In the model, the stimulus is projected onto a low-dimensional subspace and then undergoes a nonlinear transformation to produce an estimate of spiking probability. The low-dimensional subspace is estimated using principal components analysis, which gives the neuron’s electrical receptive field (ERF), i.e. the electrodes to which the neuron is most sensitive. Our model suggests that stimulation proportional to the ERF yields a higher efficacy given a fixed amount of power when compared to equal amplitude stimulation on up to three electrodes. We find that the model captures the responses of all the cells recorded in the study, suggesting that it will generalize to most cell types in the retina. The model is computationally efficient to evaluate and, therefore, appropriate for future real-time applications including stimulation strategies that make use of recorded neural activity to improve the stimulation strategy. PMID:27035143

  11. Accurate Analytic Results for the Steady State Distribution of the Eigen Model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huang, Guan-Rong; Saakian, David B.; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2016-04-01

    Eigen model of molecular evolution is popular in studying complex biological and biomedical systems. Using the Hamilton-Jacobi equation method, we have calculated analytic equations for the steady state distribution of the Eigen model with a relative accuracy of O(1/N), where N is the length of genome. Our results can be applied for the case of small genome length N, as well as the cases where the direct numerics can not give accurate result, e.g., the tail of distribution.

  12. Accurate First-Principles Spectra Predictions for Planetological and Astrophysical Applications at Various T-Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rey, M.; Nikitin, A. V.; Tyuterev, V.

    2014-06-01

    Knowledge of near infrared intensities of rovibrational transitions of polyatomic molecules is essential for the modeling of various planetary atmospheres, brown dwarfs and for other astrophysical applications 1,2,3. For example, to analyze exoplanets, atmospheric models have been developed, thus making the need to provide accurate spectroscopic data. Consequently, the spectral characterization of such planetary objects relies on the necessity of having adequate and reliable molecular data in extreme conditions (temperature, optical path length, pressure). On the other hand, in the modeling of astrophysical opacities, millions of lines are generally involved and the line-by-line extraction is clearly not feasible in laboratory measurements. It is thus suggested that this large amount of data could be interpreted only by reliable theoretical predictions. There exists essentially two theoretical approaches for the computation and prediction of spectra. The first one is based on empirically-fitted effective spectroscopic models. Another way for computing energies, line positions and intensities is based on global variational calculations using ab initio surfaces. They do not yet reach the spectroscopic accuracy stricto sensu but implicitly account for all intramolecular interactions including resonance couplings in a wide spectral range. The final aim of this work is to provide reliable predictions which could be quantitatively accurate with respect to the precision of available observations and as complete as possible. All this thus requires extensive first-principles quantum mechanical calculations essentially based on three necessary ingredients which are (i) accurate intramolecular potential energy surface and dipole moment surface components well-defined in a large range of vibrational displacements and (ii) efficient computational methods combined with suitable choices of coordinates to account for molecular symmetry properties and to achieve a good numerical

  13. Why don't we learn to accurately forecast feelings? How misremembering our predictions blinds us to past forecasting errors.

    PubMed

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-11-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent forecasts. In the context of a Super Bowl loss (Study 1), a presidential election (Studies 2 and 3), an important purchase (Study 4), and the consumption of candies (Study 5), individuals mispredicted their affective reactions to these experiences and subsequently misremembered their predictions as more accurate than they actually had been. The findings indicate that this recall error results from people's tendency to anchor on their current affective state when trying to recall their affective forecasts. Further, those who showed larger recall errors were less likely to learn to adjust their subsequent forecasts and reminding people of their actual forecasts enhanced learning. These results suggest that a failure to accurately recall one's past predictions contributes to the perpetuation of forecasting errors.

  14. An Accurate Method for Prediction of Protein-Ligand Binding Site on Protein Surface Using SVM and Statistical Depth Function

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Kui; Gao, Jianzhao; Shen, Shiyi; Tuszynski, Jack A.; Ruan, Jishou

    2013-01-01

    Since proteins carry out their functions through interactions with other molecules, accurately identifying the protein-ligand binding site plays an important role in protein functional annotation and rational drug discovery. In the past two decades, a lot of algorithms were present to predict the protein-ligand binding site. In this paper, we introduce statistical depth function to define negative samples and propose an SVM-based method which integrates sequence and structural information to predict binding site. The results show that the present method performs better than the existent ones. The accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity on training set are 77.55%, 56.15%, and 87.96%, respectively; on the independent test set, the accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity are 80.36%, 53.53%, and 92.38%, respectively. PMID:24195070

  15. A cross-race effect in metamemory: Predictions of face recognition are more accurate for members of our own race.

    PubMed

    Hourihan, Kathleen L; Benjamin, Aaron S; Liu, Xiping

    2012-09-01

    The Cross-Race Effect (CRE) in face recognition is the well-replicated finding that people are better at recognizing faces from their own race, relative to other races. The CRE reveals systematic limitations on eyewitness identification accuracy and suggests that some caution is warranted in evaluating cross-race identification. The CRE is a problem because jurors value eyewitness identification highly in verdict decisions. In the present paper, we explore how accurate people are in predicting their ability to recognize own-race and other-race faces. Caucasian and Asian participants viewed photographs of Caucasian and Asian faces, and made immediate judgments of learning during study. An old/new recognition test replicated the CRE: both groups displayed superior discriminability of own-race faces, relative to other-race faces. Importantly, relative metamnemonic accuracy was also greater for own-race faces, indicating that the accuracy of predictions about face recognition is influenced by race. This result indicates another source of concern when eliciting or evaluating eyewitness identification: people are less accurate in judging whether they will or will not recognize a face when that face is of a different race than they are. This new result suggests that a witness's claim of being likely to recognize a suspect from a lineup should be interpreted with caution when the suspect is of a different race than the witness.

  16. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    nighttime to well mixed conditions during the day presents a big challenge to NWP models. Fast decrease and successive increase in hub-height wind speed after sunrise, and the formation of nocturnal low level jets will be discussed. For PV, the life cycle of low stratus clouds and fog is crucial. Capturing these processes correctly depends on the accurate simulation of diffusion or vertical momentum transport and the interaction with other atmospheric and soil processes within the numerical weather model. Results from Single Column Model simulations and 3d case studies will be presented. Emphasis is placed on wind forecasts; however, some references to highlights concerning the PV-developments will also be given. *) ORKA: Optimierung von Ensembleprognosen regenerativer Einspeisung für den Kürzestfristbereich am Anwendungsbeispiel der Netzsicherheitsrechnungen **) EWeLiNE: Erstellung innovativer Wetter- und Leistungsprognosemodelle für die Netzintegration wetterabhängiger Energieträger, www.projekt-eweline.de

  17. Assessing hydrologic prediction uncertainty resulting from soft land cover classification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Loosvelt, Lien; De Baets, Bernard; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Verhoest, Niko E. C.

    2014-09-01

    For predictions in ungauged basins (PUB), environmental data is generally not available and needs to be inferred by indirect means. Existing technologies such as remote sensing are valuable tools for estimating the lacking data, as these technologies become more widely available and have a high areal coverage. However, indirect estimates of the environmental characteristics are prone to uncertainty. Hence, an improved understanding of the quality of the estimates and the development of methods for dealing with their associated uncertainty are essential to evolve towards accurate PUB. In this study, the impact of the uncertainty associated with the classification of land cover based on multi-temporal SPOT imagery, resulting from the use of the Random Forests classifier, on the predictions of the hydrologic model TOPLATS is investigated through a Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that the predictions of evapotranspiration, runoff and baseflow are hardly affected by the classification uncertainty when area-averaged predictions are intended, implying that uncertainty propagation is only advisable in case a spatial distribution of the predictions is relevant for decision making or is coupled to other spatially distributed models. Based on the resulting uncertainty map, guidelines for additional data collection are formulated in order to reduce the uncertainty for future model applications. Because a Monte Carlo-based uncertainty analysis is computationally very demanding, especially when complex models are involved, we developed a fast indicative uncertainty assessment method that allows for generating proxies of the Monte Carlo-based result in terms of the mean prediction and its associated uncertainty based on a single model evaluation. These proxies are shown to perform well and provide a good indication of the impact of classification uncertainty on the prediction result.

  18. Predicting accurate fluorescent spectra for high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Jacob; Heider, Emily C.; Campiglia, Andres; Harper, James K.

    2016-10-01

    The ability of density functional theory (DFT) methods to predict accurate fluorescence spectra for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is explored. Two methods, PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP, are evaluated both in the gas phase and in solution. Spectra for several of the most toxic PAHs are predicted and compared to experiment, including three isomers of C24H14 and a PAH containing heteroatoms. Unusually high-resolution experimental spectra are obtained for comparison by analyzing each PAH at 4.2 K in an n-alkane matrix. All theoretical spectra visually conform to the profiles of the experimental data but are systematically offset by a small amount. Specifically, when solvent is included the PBE0 functional overestimates peaks by 16.1 ± 6.6 nm while CAM-B3LYP underestimates the same transitions by 14.5 ± 7.6 nm. These calculated spectra can be empirically corrected to decrease the uncertainties to 6.5 ± 5.1 and 5.7 ± 5.1 nm for the PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP methods, respectively. A comparison of computed spectra in the gas phase indicates that the inclusion of n-octane shifts peaks by +11 nm on average and this change is roughly equivalent for PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP. An automated approach for comparing spectra is also described that minimizes residuals between a given theoretical spectrum and all available experimental spectra. This approach identifies the correct spectrum in all cases and excludes approximately 80% of the incorrect spectra, demonstrating that an automated search of theoretical libraries of spectra may eventually become feasible.

  19. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    PubMed

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

  20. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    PubMed

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases). PMID:26430979

  1. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed.

  2. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed. PMID:26121186

  3. Accurate prediction of V1 location from cortical folds in a surface coordinate system

    PubMed Central

    Hinds, Oliver P.; Rajendran, Niranjini; Polimeni, Jonathan R.; Augustinack, Jean C.; Wiggins, Graham; Wald, Lawrence L.; Rosas, H. Diana; Potthast, Andreas; Schwartz, Eric L.; Fischl, Bruce

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies demonstrated substantial variability of the location of primary visual cortex (V1) in stereotaxic coordinates when linear volume-based registration is used to match volumetric image intensities (Amunts et al., 2000). However, other qualitative reports of V1 location (Smith, 1904; Stensaas et al., 1974; Rademacher et al., 1993) suggested a consistent relationship between V1 and the surrounding cortical folds. Here, the relationship between folds and the location of V1 is quantified using surface-based analysis to generate a probabilistic atlas of human V1. High-resolution (about 200 μm) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 7 T of ex vivo human cerebral hemispheres allowed identification of the full area via the stria of Gennari: a myeloarchitectonic feature specific to V1. Separate, whole-brain scans were acquired using MRI at 1.5 T to allow segmentation and mesh reconstruction of the cortical gray matter. For each individual, V1 was manually identified in the high-resolution volume and projected onto the cortical surface. Surface-based intersubject registration (Fischl et al., 1999b) was performed to align the primary cortical folds of individual hemispheres to those of a reference template representing the average folding pattern. An atlas of V1 location was constructed by computing the probability of V1 inclusion for each cortical location in the template space. This probabilistic atlas of V1 exhibits low prediction error compared to previous V1 probabilistic atlases built in volumetric coordinates. The increased predictability observed under surface-based registration suggests that the location of V1 is more accurately predicted by the cortical folds than by the shape of the brain embedded in the volume of the skull. In addition, the high quality of this atlas provides direct evidence that surface-based intersubject registration methods are superior to volume-based methods at superimposing functional areas of cortex, and therefore are better

  4. Accurate prediction of kidney allograft outcome based on creatinine course in the first 6 months posttransplant.

    PubMed

    Fritsche, L; Hoerstrup, J; Budde, K; Reinke, P; Neumayer, H-H; Frei, U; Schlaefer, A

    2005-03-01

    Most attempts to predict early kidney allograft loss are based on the patient and donor characteristics at baseline. We investigated how the early posttransplant creatinine course compares to baseline information in the prediction of kidney graft failure within the first 4 years after transplantation. Two approaches to create a prediction rule for early graft failure were evaluated. First, the whole data set was analysed using a decision-tree building software. The software, rpart, builds classification or regression models; the resulting models can be represented as binary trees. In the second approach, a Hill-Climbing algorithm was applied to define cut-off values for the median creatinine level and creatinine slope in the period between day 60 and 180 after transplantation. Of the 497 patients available for analysis, 52 (10.5%) experienced an early graft loss (graft loss within the first 4 years after transplantation). From the rpart algorithm, a single decision criterion emerged: Median creatinine value on days 60 to 180 higher than 3.1 mg/dL predicts early graft failure (accuracy 95.2% but sensitivity = 42.3%). In contrast, the Hill-Climbing algorithm delivered a cut-off of 1.8 mg/dL for the median creatinine level and a cut-off of 0.3 mg/dL per month for the creatinine slope (sensitivity = 69.5% and specificity 79.0%). Prediction rules based on median and slope of creatinine levels in the first half year after transplantation allow early identification of patients who are at risk of loosing their graft early after transplantation. These patients may benefit from therapeutic measures tailored for this high-risk setting. PMID:15848516

  5. Accurate Prediction of Transposon-Derived piRNAs by Integrating Various Sequential and Physicochemical Features

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Longqiang; Li, Dingfang; Zhang, Wen; Tu, Shikui; Zhu, Xiaopeng; Tian, Gang

    2016-01-01

    Background Piwi-interacting RNA (piRNA) is the largest class of small non-coding RNA molecules. The transposon-derived piRNA prediction can enrich the research contents of small ncRNAs as well as help to further understand generation mechanism of gamete. Methods In this paper, we attempt to differentiate transposon-derived piRNAs from non-piRNAs based on their sequential and physicochemical features by using machine learning methods. We explore six sequence-derived features, i.e. spectrum profile, mismatch profile, subsequence profile, position-specific scoring matrix, pseudo dinucleotide composition and local structure-sequence triplet elements, and systematically evaluate their performances for transposon-derived piRNA prediction. Finally, we consider two approaches: direct combination and ensemble learning to integrate useful features and achieve high-accuracy prediction models. Results We construct three datasets, covering three species: Human, Mouse and Drosophila, and evaluate the performances of prediction models by 10-fold cross validation. In the computational experiments, direct combination models achieve AUC of 0.917, 0.922 and 0.992 on Human, Mouse and Drosophila, respectively; ensemble learning models achieve AUC of 0.922, 0.926 and 0.994 on the three datasets. Conclusions Compared with other state-of-the-art methods, our methods can lead to better performances. In conclusion, the proposed methods are promising for the transposon-derived piRNA prediction. The source codes and datasets are available in S1 File. PMID:27074043

  6. FastRNABindR: Fast and Accurate Prediction of Protein-RNA Interface Residues

    PubMed Central

    EL-Manzalawy, Yasser; Abbas, Mostafa; Malluhi, Qutaibah; Honavar, Vasant

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of biological processes, including regulation of gene expression, protein synthesis, and replication and assembly of many viruses are mediated by RNA-protein interactions. However, experimental determination of the structures of protein-RNA complexes is expensive and technically challenging. Hence, a number of computational tools have been developed for predicting protein-RNA interfaces. Some of the state-of-the-art protein-RNA interface predictors rely on position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM)-based encoding of the protein sequences. The computational efforts needed for generating PSSMs severely limits the practical utility of protein-RNA interface prediction servers. In this work, we experiment with two approaches, random sampling and sequence similarity reduction, for extracting a representative reference database of protein sequences from more than 50 million protein sequences in UniRef100. Our results suggest that random sampled databases produce better PSSM profiles (in terms of the number of hits used to generate the profile and the distance of the generated profile to the corresponding profile generated using the entire UniRef100 data as well as the accuracy of the machine learning classifier trained using these profiles). Based on our results, we developed FastRNABindR, an improved version of RNABindR for predicting protein-RNA interface residues using PSSM profiles generated using 1% of the UniRef100 sequences sampled uniformly at random. To the best of our knowledge, FastRNABindR is the only protein-RNA interface residue prediction online server that requires generation of PSSM profiles for query sequences and accepts hundreds of protein sequences per submission. Our approach for determining the optimal BLAST database for a protein-RNA interface residue classification task has the potential of substantially speeding up, and hence increasing the practical utility of, other amino acid sequence based predictors of protein-protein and protein

  7. FastRNABindR: Fast and Accurate Prediction of Protein-RNA Interface Residues.

    PubMed

    El-Manzalawy, Yasser; Abbas, Mostafa; Malluhi, Qutaibah; Honavar, Vasant

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of biological processes, including regulation of gene expression, protein synthesis, and replication and assembly of many viruses are mediated by RNA-protein interactions. However, experimental determination of the structures of protein-RNA complexes is expensive and technically challenging. Hence, a number of computational tools have been developed for predicting protein-RNA interfaces. Some of the state-of-the-art protein-RNA interface predictors rely on position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM)-based encoding of the protein sequences. The computational efforts needed for generating PSSMs severely limits the practical utility of protein-RNA interface prediction servers. In this work, we experiment with two approaches, random sampling and sequence similarity reduction, for extracting a representative reference database of protein sequences from more than 50 million protein sequences in UniRef100. Our results suggest that random sampled databases produce better PSSM profiles (in terms of the number of hits used to generate the profile and the distance of the generated profile to the corresponding profile generated using the entire UniRef100 data as well as the accuracy of the machine learning classifier trained using these profiles). Based on our results, we developed FastRNABindR, an improved version of RNABindR for predicting protein-RNA interface residues using PSSM profiles generated using 1% of the UniRef100 sequences sampled uniformly at random. To the best of our knowledge, FastRNABindR is the only protein-RNA interface residue prediction online server that requires generation of PSSM profiles for query sequences and accepts hundreds of protein sequences per submission. Our approach for determining the optimal BLAST database for a protein-RNA interface residue classification task has the potential of substantially speeding up, and hence increasing the practical utility of, other amino acid sequence based predictors of protein-protein and protein

  8. Improving DOE-2's RESYS routine: User defined functions to provide more accurate part load energy use and humidity predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Henderson, Hugh I.; Parker, Danny; Huang, Yu J.

    2000-08-04

    In hourly energy simulations, it is important to properly predict the performance of air conditioning systems over a range of full and part load operating conditions. An important component of these calculations is to properly consider the performance of the cycling air conditioner and how it interacts with the building. This paper presents improved approaches to properly account for the part load performance of residential and light commercial air conditioning systems in DOE-2. First, more accurate correlations are given to predict the degradation of system efficiency at part load conditions. In addition, a user-defined function for RESYS is developed that provides improved predictions of air conditioner sensible and latent capacity at part load conditions. The user function also provides more accurate predictions of space humidity by adding ''lumped'' moisture capacitance into the calculations. The improved cooling coil model and the addition of moisture capacitance predicts humidity swings that are more representative of the performance observed in real buildings.

  9. Robust and Accurate Modeling Approaches for Migraine Per-Patient Prediction from Ambulatory Data

    PubMed Central

    Pagán, Josué; Irene De Orbe, M.; Gago, Ana; Sobrado, Mónica; Risco-Martín, José L.; Vivancos Mora, J.; Moya, José M.; Ayala, José L.

    2015-01-01

    Migraine is one of the most wide-spread neurological disorders, and its medical treatment represents a high percentage of the costs of health systems. In some patients, characteristic symptoms that precede the headache appear. However, they are nonspecific, and their prediction horizon is unknown and pretty variable; hence, these symptoms are almost useless for prediction, and they are not useful to advance the intake of drugs to be effective and neutralize the pain. To solve this problem, this paper sets up a realistic monitoring scenario where hemodynamic variables from real patients are monitored in ambulatory conditions with a wireless body sensor network (WBSN). The acquired data are used to evaluate the predictive capabilities and robustness against noise and failures in sensors of several modeling approaches. The obtained results encourage the development of per-patient models based on state-space models (N4SID) that are capable of providing average forecast windows of 47 min and a low rate of false positives. PMID:26134103

  10. Accurate structure prediction of peptide–MHC complexes for identifying highly immunogenic antigens

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Min-Sun; Park, Sung Yong; Miller, Keith R.; Collins, Edward J.; Lee, Ha Youn

    2013-11-01

    Designing an optimal HIV-1 vaccine faces the challenge of identifying antigens that induce a broad immune capacity. One factor to control the breadth of T cell responses is the surface morphology of a peptide–MHC complex. Here, we present an in silico protocol for predicting peptide–MHC structure. A robust signature of a conformational transition was identified during all-atom molecular dynamics, which results in a model with high accuracy. A large test set was used in constructing our protocol and we went another step further using a blind test with a wild-type peptide and two highly immunogenic mutants, which predicted substantial conformational changes in both mutants. The center residues at position five of the analogs were configured to be accessible to solvent, forming a prominent surface, while the residue of the wild-type peptide was to point laterally toward the side of the binding cleft. We then experimentally determined the structures of the blind test set, using high resolution of X-ray crystallography, which verified predicted conformational changes. Our observation strongly supports a positive association of the surface morphology of a peptide–MHC complex to its immunogenicity. Our study offers the prospect of enhancing immunogenicity of vaccines by identifying MHC binding immunogens.

  11. Accurate single-sequence prediction of solvent accessible surface area using local and global features.

    PubMed

    Faraggi, Eshel; Zhou, Yaoqi; Kloczkowski, Andrzej

    2014-11-01

    We present a new approach for predicting the Accessible Surface Area (ASA) using a General Neural Network (GENN). The novelty of the new approach lies in not using residue mutation profiles generated by multiple sequence alignments as descriptive inputs. Instead we use solely sequential window information and global features such as single-residue and two-residue compositions of the chain. The resulting predictor is both highly more efficient than sequence alignment-based predictors and of comparable accuracy to them. Introduction of the global inputs significantly helps achieve this comparable accuracy. The predictor, termed ASAquick, is tested on predicting the ASA of globular proteins and found to perform similarly well for so-called easy and hard cases indicating generalizability and possible usability for de-novo protein structure prediction. The source code and a Linux executables for GENN and ASAquick are available from Research and Information Systems at http://mamiris.com, from the SPARKS Lab at http://sparks-lab.org, and from the Battelle Center for Mathematical Medicine at http://mathmed.org. PMID:25204636

  12. Accurate prediction of cellular co-translational folding indicates proteins can switch from post- to co-translational folding

    PubMed Central

    Nissley, Daniel A.; Sharma, Ajeet K.; Ahmed, Nabeel; Friedrich, Ulrike A.; Kramer, Günter; Bukau, Bernd; O'Brien, Edward P.

    2016-01-01

    The rates at which domains fold and codons are translated are important factors in determining whether a nascent protein will co-translationally fold and function or misfold and malfunction. Here we develop a chemical kinetic model that calculates a protein domain's co-translational folding curve during synthesis using only the domain's bulk folding and unfolding rates and codon translation rates. We show that this model accurately predicts the course of co-translational folding measured in vivo for four different protein molecules. We then make predictions for a number of different proteins in yeast and find that synonymous codon substitutions, which change translation-elongation rates, can switch some protein domains from folding post-translationally to folding co-translationally—a result consistent with previous experimental studies. Our approach explains essential features of co-translational folding curves and predicts how varying the translation rate at different codon positions along a transcript's coding sequence affects this self-assembly process. PMID:26887592

  13. Accurate prediction of cellular co-translational folding indicates proteins can switch from post- to co-translational folding.

    PubMed

    Nissley, Daniel A; Sharma, Ajeet K; Ahmed, Nabeel; Friedrich, Ulrike A; Kramer, Günter; Bukau, Bernd; O'Brien, Edward P

    2016-01-01

    The rates at which domains fold and codons are translated are important factors in determining whether a nascent protein will co-translationally fold and function or misfold and malfunction. Here we develop a chemical kinetic model that calculates a protein domain's co-translational folding curve during synthesis using only the domain's bulk folding and unfolding rates and codon translation rates. We show that this model accurately predicts the course of co-translational folding measured in vivo for four different protein molecules. We then make predictions for a number of different proteins in yeast and find that synonymous codon substitutions, which change translation-elongation rates, can switch some protein domains from folding post-translationally to folding co-translationally--a result consistent with previous experimental studies. Our approach explains essential features of co-translational folding curves and predicts how varying the translation rate at different codon positions along a transcript's coding sequence affects this self-assembly process. PMID:26887592

  14. Small-scale field experiments accurately scale up to predict density dependence in reef fish populations at large scales.

    PubMed

    Steele, Mark A; Forrester, Graham E

    2005-09-20

    Field experiments provide rigorous tests of ecological hypotheses but are usually limited to small spatial scales. It is thus unclear whether these findings extrapolate to larger scales relevant to conservation and management. We show that the results of experiments detecting density-dependent mortality of reef fish on small habitat patches scale up to have similar effects on much larger entire reefs that are the size of small marine reserves and approach the scale at which some reef fisheries operate. We suggest that accurate scaling is due to the type of species interaction causing local density dependence and the fact that localized events can be aggregated to describe larger-scale interactions with minimal distortion. Careful extrapolation from small-scale experiments identifying species interactions and their effects should improve our ability to predict the outcomes of alternative management strategies for coral reef fishes and their habitats.

  15. Effects of the inlet conditions and blood models on accurate prediction of hemodynamics in the stented coronary arteries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jiang, Yongfei; Zhang, Jun; Zhao, Wanhua

    2015-05-01

    Hemodynamics altered by stent implantation is well-known to be closely related to in-stent restenosis. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method has been used to investigate the hemodynamics in stented arteries in detail and help to analyze the performances of stents. In this study, blood models with Newtonian or non-Newtonian properties were numerically investigated for the hemodynamics at steady or pulsatile inlet conditions respectively employing CFD based on the finite volume method. The results showed that the blood model with non-Newtonian property decreased the area of low wall shear stress (WSS) compared with the blood model with Newtonian property and the magnitude of WSS varied with the magnitude and waveform of the inlet velocity. The study indicates that the inlet conditions and blood models are all important for accurately predicting the hemodynamics. This will be beneficial to estimate the performances of stents and also help clinicians to select the proper stents for the patients.

  16. A simple yet accurate correction for winner's curse can predict signals discovered in much larger genome scans

    PubMed Central

    Bigdeli, T. Bernard; Lee, Donghyung; Webb, Bradley Todd; Riley, Brien P.; Vladimirov, Vladimir I.; Fanous, Ayman H.; Kendler, Kenneth S.; Bacanu, Silviu-Alin

    2016-01-01

    Motivation: For genetic studies, statistically significant variants explain far less trait variance than ‘sub-threshold’ association signals. To dimension follow-up studies, researchers need to accurately estimate ‘true’ effect sizes at each SNP, e.g. the true mean of odds ratios (ORs)/regression coefficients (RRs) or Z-score noncentralities. Naïve estimates of effect sizes incur winner’s curse biases, which are reduced only by laborious winner’s curse adjustments (WCAs). Given that Z-scores estimates can be theoretically translated on other scales, we propose a simple method to compute WCA for Z-scores, i.e. their true means/noncentralities. Results:WCA of Z-scores shrinks these towards zero while, on P-value scale, multiple testing adjustment (MTA) shrinks P-values toward one, which corresponds to the zero Z-score value. Thus, WCA on Z-scores scale is a proxy for MTA on P-value scale. Therefore, to estimate Z-score noncentralities for all SNPs in genome scans, we propose FDR Inverse Quantile Transformation (FIQT). It (i) performs the simpler MTA of P-values using FDR and (ii) obtains noncentralities by back-transforming MTA P-values on Z-score scale. When compared to competitors, realistic simulations suggest that FIQT is more (i) accurate and (ii) computationally efficient by orders of magnitude. Practical application of FIQT to Psychiatric Genetic Consortium schizophrenia cohort predicts a non-trivial fraction of sub-threshold signals which become significant in much larger supersamples. Conclusions: FIQT is a simple, yet accurate, WCA method for Z-scores (and ORs/RRs, via simple transformations). Availability and Implementation: A 10 lines R function implementation is available at https://github.com/bacanusa/FIQT. Contact: sabacanu@vcu.edu Supplementary information: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. PMID:27187203

  17. TIMP2•IGFBP7 biomarker panel accurately predicts acute kidney injury in high-risk surgical patients

    PubMed Central

    Gunnerson, Kyle J.; Shaw, Andrew D.; Chawla, Lakhmir S.; Bihorac, Azra; Al-Khafaji, Ali; Kashani, Kianoush; Lissauer, Matthew; Shi, Jing; Walker, Michael G.; Kellum, John A.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important complication in surgical patients. Existing biomarkers and clinical prediction models underestimate the risk for developing AKI. We recently reported data from two trials of 728 and 408 critically ill adult patients in whom urinary TIMP2•IGFBP7 (NephroCheck, Astute Medical) was used to identify patients at risk of developing AKI. Here we report a preplanned analysis of surgical patients from both trials to assess whether urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2 (TIMP-2) and insulin-like growth factor–binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) accurately identify surgical patients at risk of developing AKI. STUDY DESIGN We enrolled adult surgical patients at risk for AKI who were admitted to one of 39 intensive care units across Europe and North America. The primary end point was moderate-severe AKI (equivalent to KDIGO [Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes] stages 2–3) within 12 hours of enrollment. Biomarker performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, integrated discrimination improvement, and category-free net reclassification improvement. RESULTS A total of 375 patients were included in the final analysis of whom 35 (9%) developed moderate-severe AKI within 12 hours. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for [TIMP-2]•[IGFBP7] alone was 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.76–0.90; p < 0.0001). Biomarker performance was robust in sensitivity analysis across predefined subgroups (urgency and type of surgery). CONCLUSION For postoperative surgical intensive care unit patients, a single urinary TIMP2•IGFBP7 test accurately identified patients at risk for developing AKI within the ensuing 12 hours and its inclusion in clinical risk prediction models significantly enhances their performance. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level I. PMID:26816218

  18. PSI: A Comprehensive and Integrative Approach for Accurate Plant Subcellular Localization Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Ming

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the subcellular localization of proteins conquers the major drawbacks of high-throughput localization experiments that are costly and time-consuming. However, current subcellular localization predictors are limited in scope and accuracy. In particular, most predictors perform well on certain locations or with certain data sets while poorly on others. Here, we present PSI, a novel high accuracy web server for plant subcellular localization prediction. PSI derives the wisdom of multiple specialized predictors via a joint-approach of group decision making strategy and machine learning methods to give an integrated best result. The overall accuracy obtained (up to 93.4%) was higher than best individual (CELLO) by ∼10.7%. The precision of each predicable subcellular location (more than 80%) far exceeds that of the individual predictors. It can also deal with multi-localization proteins. PSI is expected to be a powerful tool in protein location engineering as well as in plant sciences, while the strategy employed could be applied to other integrative problems. A user-friendly web server, PSI, has been developed for free access at http://bis.zju.edu.cn/psi/. PMID:24194827

  19. A Foundation for the Accurate Prediction of the Soft Error Vulnerability of Scientific Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Bronevetsky, G; de Supinski, B; Schulz, M

    2009-02-13

    Understanding the soft error vulnerability of supercomputer applications is critical as these systems are using ever larger numbers of devices that have decreasing feature sizes and, thus, increasing frequency of soft errors. As many large scale parallel scientific applications use BLAS and LAPACK linear algebra routines, the soft error vulnerability of these methods constitutes a large fraction of the applications overall vulnerability. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of these routines to soft errors by characterizing how their outputs are affected by injected errors and by evaluating several techniques for predicting how errors propagate from the input to the output of each routine. The resulting error profiles can be used to understand the fault vulnerability of full applications that use these routines.

  20. Accurate prediction model of bead geometry in crimping butt of the laser brazing using generalized regression neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rong, Y. M.; Chang, Y.; Huang, Y.; Zhang, G. J.; Shao, X. Y.

    2015-12-01

    There are few researches that concentrate on the prediction of the bead geometry for laser brazing with crimping butt. This paper addressed the accurate prediction of the bead profile by developing a generalized regression neural network (GRNN) algorithm. Firstly GRNN model was developed and trained to decrease the prediction error that may be influenced by the sample size. Then the prediction accuracy was demonstrated by comparing with other articles and back propagation artificial neural network (BPNN) algorithm. Eventually the reliability and stability of GRNN model were discussed from the points of average relative error (ARE), mean square error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE), while the maximum ARE and MSE were 6.94% and 0.0303 that were clearly less than those (14.28% and 0.0832) predicted by BPNN. Obviously, it was proved that the prediction accuracy was improved at least 2 times, and the stability was also increased much more.

  1. Lateral impact validation of a geometrically accurate full body finite element model for blunt injury prediction.

    PubMed

    Vavalle, Nicholas A; Moreno, Daniel P; Rhyne, Ashley C; Stitzel, Joel D; Gayzik, F Scott

    2013-03-01

    This study presents four validation cases of a mid-sized male (M50) full human body finite element model-two lateral sled tests at 6.7 m/s, one sled test at 8.9 m/s, and a lateral drop test. Model results were compared to transient force curves, peak force, chest compression, and number of fractures from the studies. For one of the 6.7 m/s impacts (flat wall impact), the peak thoracic, abdominal and pelvic loads were 8.7, 3.1 and 14.9 kN for the model and 5.2 ± 1.1 kN, 3.1 ± 1.1 kN, and 6.3 ± 2.3 kN for the tests. For the same test setup in the 8.9 m/s case, they were 12.6, 6, and 21.9 kN for the model and 9.1 ± 1.5 kN, 4.9 ± 1.1 kN, and 17.4 ± 6.8 kN for the experiments. The combined torso load and the pelvis load simulated in a second rigid wall impact at 6.7 m/s were 11.4 and 15.6 kN, respectively, compared to 8.5 ± 0.2 kN and 8.3 ± 1.8 kN experimentally. The peak thorax load in the drop test was 6.7 kN for the model, within the range in the cadavers, 5.8-7.4 kN. When analyzing rib fractures, the model predicted Abbreviated Injury Scale scores within the reported range in three of four cases. Objective comparison methods were used to quantitatively compare the model results to the literature studies. The results show a good match in the thorax and abdomen regions while the pelvis results over predicted the reaction loads from the literature studies. These results are an important milestone in the development and validation of this globally developed average male FEA model in lateral impact.

  2. Neural network approach to quantum-chemistry data: Accurate prediction of density functional theory energies

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balabin, Roman M.; Lomakina, Ekaterina I.

    2009-08-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) approach has been applied to estimate the density functional theory (DFT) energy with large basis set using lower-level energy values and molecular descriptors. A total of 208 different molecules were used for the ANN training, cross validation, and testing by applying BLYP, B3LYP, and BMK density functionals. Hartree-Fock results were reported for comparison. Furthermore, constitutional molecular descriptor (CD) and quantum-chemical molecular descriptor (QD) were used for building the calibration model. The neural network structure optimization, leading to four to five hidden neurons, was also carried out. The usage of several low-level energy values was found to greatly reduce the prediction error. An expected error, mean absolute deviation, for ANN approximation to DFT energies was 0.6±0.2 kcal mol-1. In addition, the comparison of the different density functionals with the basis sets and the comparison of multiple linear regression results were also provided. The CDs were found to overcome limitation of the QD. Furthermore, the effective ANN model for DFT/6-311G(3df,3pd) and DFT/6-311G(2df,2pd) energy estimation was developed, and the benchmark results were provided.

  3. Combining multiple regression and principal component analysis for accurate predictions for column ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajab, Jasim M.; MatJafri, M. Z.; Lim, H. S.

    2013-06-01

    This study encompasses columnar ozone modelling in the peninsular Malaysia. Data of eight atmospheric parameters [air surface temperature (AST), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), water vapour (H2Ovapour), skin surface temperature (SSKT), atmosphere temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), and mean surface pressure (MSP)] data set, retrieved from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), for the entire period (2003-2008) was employed to develop models to predict the value of columnar ozone (O3) in study area. The combined method, which is based on using both multiple regressions combined with principal component analysis (PCA) modelling, was used to predict columnar ozone. This combined approach was utilized to improve the prediction accuracy of columnar ozone. Separate analysis was carried out for north east monsoon (NEM) and south west monsoon (SWM) seasons. The O3 was negatively correlated with CH4, H2Ovapour, RH, and MSP, whereas it was positively correlated with CO, AST, SSKT, and AT during both the NEM and SWM season periods. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the columnar ozone data using the atmospheric parameter's variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to acquire subsets of the predictor variables to be comprised in the linear regression model of the atmospheric parameter's variables. It was found that the increase in columnar O3 value is associated with an increase in the values of AST, SSKT, AT, and CO and with a drop in the levels of CH4, H2Ovapour, RH, and MSP. The result of fitting the best models for the columnar O3 value using eight of the independent variables gave about the same values of the R (≈0.93) and R2 (≈0.86) for both the NEM and SWM seasons. The common variables that appeared in both regression equations were SSKT, CH4 and RH, and the principal precursor of the columnar O3 value in both the NEM and SWM seasons was SSKT.

  4. A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of multi-leaf collimator positional errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Joel N. K.; Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; In Park, Jong; Choi, Yunseok; Ye, Sung-Joon

    2016-03-01

    Discrepancies between planned and delivered movements of multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) are an important source of errors in dose distributions during radiotherapy. In this work we used machine learning techniques to train models to predict these discrepancies, assessed the accuracy of the model predictions, and examined the impact these errors have on quality assurance (QA) procedures and dosimetry. Predictive leaf motion parameters for the models were calculated from the plan files, such as leaf position and velocity, whether the leaf was moving towards or away from the isocenter of the MLC, and many others. Differences in positions between synchronized DICOM-RT planning files and DynaLog files reported during QA delivery were used as a target response for training of the models. The final model is capable of predicting MLC positions during delivery to a high degree of accuracy. For moving MLC leaves, predicted positions were shown to be significantly closer to delivered positions than were planned positions. By incorporating predicted positions into dose calculations in the TPS, increases were shown in gamma passing rates against measured dose distributions recorded during QA delivery. For instance, head and neck plans with 1%/2 mm gamma criteria had an average increase in passing rate of 4.17% (SD  =  1.54%). This indicates that the inclusion of predictions during dose calculation leads to a more realistic representation of plan delivery. To assess impact on the patient, dose volumetric histograms (DVH) using delivered positions were calculated for comparison with planned and predicted DVHs. In all cases, predicted dose volumetric parameters were in closer agreement to the delivered parameters than were the planned parameters, particularly for organs at risk on the periphery of the treatment area. By incorporating the predicted positions into the TPS, the treatment planner is given a more realistic view of the dose distribution as it will truly be

  5. Accurate prediction of the refractive index of polymers using first principles and data modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Afzal, Mohammad Atif Faiz; Cheng, Chong; Hachmann, Johannes

    Organic polymers with a high refractive index (RI) have recently attracted considerable interest due to their potential application in optical and optoelectronic devices. The ability to tailor the molecular structure of polymers is the key to increasing the accessible RI values. Our work concerns the creation of predictive in silico models for the optical properties of organic polymers, the screening of large-scale candidate libraries, and the mining of the resulting data to extract the underlying design principles that govern their performance. This work was set up to guide our experimentalist partners and allow them to target the most promising candidates. Our model is based on the Lorentz-Lorenz equation and thus includes the polarizability and number density values for each candidate. For the former, we performed a detailed benchmark study of different density functionals, basis sets, and the extrapolation scheme towards the polymer limit. For the number density we devised an exceedingly efficient machine learning approach to correlate the polymer structure and the packing fraction in the bulk material. We validated the proposed RI model against the experimentally known RI values of 112 polymers. We could show that the proposed combination of physical and data modeling is both successful and highly economical to characterize a wide range of organic polymers, which is a prerequisite for virtual high-throughput screening.

  6. Towards Accurate Prediction of Turbulent, Three-Dimensional, Recirculating Flows with the NCC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iannetti, A.; Tacina, R.; Jeng, S.-M.; Cai, J.

    2001-01-01

    The National Combustion Code (NCC) was used to calculate the steady state, nonreacting flow field of a prototype Lean Direct Injection (LDI) swirler. This configuration used nine groups of eight holes drilled at a thirty-five degree angle to induce swirl. These nine groups created swirl in the same direction, or a corotating pattern. The static pressure drop across the holes was fixed at approximately four percent. Computations were performed on one quarter of the geometry, because the geometry is considered rotationally periodic every ninety degrees. The final computational grid used was approximately 2.26 million tetrahedral cells, and a cubic nonlinear k - epsilon model was used to model turbulence. The NCC results were then compared to time averaged Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) data. The LDV measurements were performed on the full geometry, but four ninths of the geometry was measured. One-, two-, and three-dimensional representations of both flow fields are presented. The NCC computations compare both qualitatively and quantitatively well to the LDV data, but differences exist downstream. The comparison is encouraging, and shows that NCC can be used for future injector design studies. To improve the flow prediction accuracy of turbulent, three-dimensional, recirculating flow fields with the NCC, recommendations are given.

  7. Are restrained eaters accurate monitors of their intoxication? Results from a field experiment.

    PubMed

    Buchholz, Laura J; Crowther, Janis H; Olds, R Scott; Smith, Kathryn E; Ridolfi, Danielle R

    2013-04-01

    Brief interventions encourage college students to eat more before drinking to prevent harm (Dimeff et al., 1999), although many women decrease their caloric intake (Giles et al., 2009) and the number of eating episodes (Luce et al., 2012) prior to drinking alcohol. Participants were 37 undergraduate women (24.3% Caucasian) who were recruited from a local bar district in the Midwest. This study examined whether changes in eating after intending to drink interacted with dietary restraint to predict accuracy of one's intoxication. Results indicated that changes in eating significantly moderated the relationship between dietary restraint and accuracy of one's intoxication level. After eating more food before intending to drink, women higher in restraint were more likely to overestimate their intoxication than women lower in restraint. There were no differences between women with high levels and low levels of dietary restraint in the accuracy of their intoxication after eating less food before intending to drink. Future research would benefit from examining interoceptive awareness as a possible mechanism involved in this relationship.

  8. A Support Vector Machine model for the prediction of proteotypic peptides for accurate mass and time proteomics

    SciTech Connect

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Cannon, William R.; Oehmen, Christopher S.; Shah, Anuj R.; Gurumoorthi, Vidhya; Lipton, Mary S.; Waters, Katrina M.

    2008-07-01

    Motivation: The standard approach to identifying peptides based on accurate mass and elution time (AMT) compares these profiles obtained from a high resolution mass spectrometer to a database of peptides previously identified from tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) studies. It would be advantageous, with respect to both accuracy and cost, to only search for those peptides that are detectable by MS (proteotypic). Results: We present a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model that uses a simple descriptor space based on 35 properties of amino acid content, charge, hydrophilicity, and polarity for the quantitative prediction of proteotypic peptides. Using three independently derived AMT databases (Shewanella oneidensis, Salmonella typhimurium, Yersinia pestis) for training and validation within and across species, the SVM resulted in an average accuracy measure of ~0.8 with a standard deviation of less than 0.025. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these results are achievable with a small set of 12 variables and can achieve high proteome coverage. Availability: http://omics.pnl.gov/software/STEPP.php

  9. How Accurate Are the Anthropometry Equations in in Iranian Military Men in Predicting Body Composition?

    PubMed Central

    Shakibaee, Abolfazl; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Alishiri, Gholam Hossein; Ebrahimpour, Zeynab; Faradjzadeh, Shahram; Sobhani, Vahid; Asgari, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Background: The body composition varies according to different life styles (i.e. intake calories and caloric expenditure). Therefore, it is wise to record military personnel’s body composition periodically and encourage those who abide to the regulations. Different methods have been introduced for body composition assessment: invasive and non-invasive. Amongst them, the Jackson and Pollock equation is most popular. Objectives: The recommended anthropometric prediction equations for assessing men’s body composition were compared with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) gold standard to develop a modified equation to assess body composition and obesity quantitatively among Iranian military men. Patients and Methods: A total of 101 military men aged 23 - 52 years old with a mean age of 35.5 years were recruited and evaluated in the present study (average height, 173.9 cm and weight, 81.5 kg). The body-fat percentages of subjects were assessed both with anthropometric assessment and DEXA scan. The data obtained from these two methods were then compared using multiple regression analysis. Results: The mean and standard deviation of body fat percentage of the DEXA assessment was 21.2 ± 4.3 and body fat percentage obtained from three Jackson and Pollock 3-, 4- and 7-site equations were 21.1 ± 5.8, 22.2 ± 6.0 and 20.9 ± 5.7, respectively. There was a strong correlation between these three equations and DEXA (R² = 0.98). Conclusions: The mean percentage of body fat obtained from the three equations of Jackson and Pollock was very close to that of body fat obtained from DEXA; however, we suggest using a modified Jackson-Pollock 3-site equation for volunteer military men because the 3-site equation analysis method is simpler and faster than other methods. PMID:26715964

  10. Multi-omics integration accurately predicts cellular state in unexplored conditions for Escherichia coli

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Minseung; Rai, Navneet; Zorraquino, Violeta; Tagkopoulos, Ilias

    2016-01-01

    A significant obstacle in training predictive cell models is the lack of integrated data sources. We develop semi-supervised normalization pipelines and perform experimental characterization (growth, transcriptional, proteome) to create Ecomics, a consistent, quality-controlled multi-omics compendium for Escherichia coli with cohesive meta-data information. We then use this resource to train a multi-scale model that integrates four omics layers to predict genome-wide concentrations and growth dynamics. The genetic and environmental ontology reconstructed from the omics data is substantially different and complementary to the genetic and chemical ontologies. The integration of different layers confers an incremental increase in the prediction performance, as does the information about the known gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions. The predictive performance of the model ranges from 0.54 to 0.87 for the various omics layers, which far exceeds various baselines. This work provides an integrative framework of omics-driven predictive modelling that is broadly applicable to guide biological discovery. PMID:27713404

  11. Empirical approaches to more accurately predict benthic-pelagic coupling in biogeochemical ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dale, Andy; Stolpovsky, Konstantin; Wallmann, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    The recycling and burial of biogenic material in the sea floor plays a key role in the regulation of ocean chemistry. Proper consideration of these processes in ocean biogeochemical models is becoming increasingly recognized as an important step in model validation and prediction. However, the rate of organic matter remineralization in sediments and the benthic flux of redox-sensitive elements are difficult to predict a priori. In this communication, examples of empirical benthic flux models that can be coupled to earth system models to predict sediment-water exchange in the open ocean are presented. Large uncertainties hindering further progress in this field include knowledge of the reactivity of organic carbon reaching the sediment, the importance of episodic variability in bottom water chemistry and particle rain rates (for both the deep-sea and margins) and the role of benthic fauna. How do we meet the challenge?

  12. An endometrial gene expression signature accurately predicts recurrent implantation failure after IVF

    PubMed Central

    Koot, Yvonne E. M.; van Hooff, Sander R.; Boomsma, Carolien M.; van Leenen, Dik; Groot Koerkamp, Marian J. A.; Goddijn, Mariëtte; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Holstege, Frank C. P.; Macklon, Nick S.

    2016-01-01

    The primary limiting factor for effective IVF treatment is successful embryo implantation. Recurrent implantation failure (RIF) is a condition whereby couples fail to achieve pregnancy despite consecutive embryo transfers. Here we describe the collection of gene expression profiles from mid-luteal phase endometrial biopsies (n = 115) from women experiencing RIF and healthy controls. Using a signature discovery set (n = 81) we identify a signature containing 303 genes predictive of RIF. Independent validation in 34 samples shows that the gene signature predicts RIF with 100% positive predictive value (PPV). The strength of the RIF associated expression signature also stratifies RIF patients into distinct groups with different subsequent implantation success rates. Exploration of the expression changes suggests that RIF is primarily associated with reduced cellular proliferation. The gene signature will be of value in counselling and guiding further treatment of women who fail to conceive upon IVF and suggests new avenues for developing intervention. PMID:26797113

  13. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Significant dosimetric benefits had been previously demonstrated in highly noncoplanar treatment plans. In this study, the authors developed and verified an individualized collision model for the purpose of delivering highly noncoplanar radiotherapy and tested the feasibility of total delivery automation with Varian TrueBeam developer mode. Methods: A hand-held 3D scanner was used to capture the surfaces of an anthropomorphic phantom and a human subject, which were positioned with a computer-aided design model of a TrueBeam machine to create a detailed virtual geometrical collision model. The collision model included gantry, collimator, and couch motion degrees of freedom. The accuracy of the 3D scanner was validated by scanning a rigid cubical phantom with known dimensions. The collision model was then validated by generating 300 linear accelerator orientations corresponding to 300 gantry-to-couch and gantry-to-phantom distances, and comparing the corresponding distance measurements to their corresponding models. The linear accelerator orientations reflected uniformly sampled noncoplanar beam angles to the head, lung, and prostate. The distance discrepancies between measurements on the physical and virtual systems were used to estimate treatment-site-specific safety buffer distances with 0.1%, 0.01%, and 0.001% probability of collision between the gantry and couch or phantom. Plans containing 20 noncoplanar beams to the brain, lung, and prostate optimized via an in-house noncoplanar radiotherapy platform were converted into XML script for automated delivery and the entire delivery was recorded and timed to demonstrate the feasibility of automated delivery. Results: The 3D scanner measured the dimension of the 14 cm cubic phantom within 0.5 mm. The maximal absolute discrepancy between machine and model measurements for gantry-to-couch and gantry-to-phantom was 0.95 and 2.97 cm, respectively. The reduced accuracy of gantry-to-phantom measurements was

  14. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke

    2015-11-15

    Purpose: Significant dosimetric benefits had been previously demonstrated in highly noncoplanar treatment plans. In this study, the authors developed and verified an individualized collision model for the purpose of delivering highly noncoplanar radiotherapy and tested the feasibility of total delivery automation with Varian TrueBeam developer mode. Methods: A hand-held 3D scanner was used to capture the surfaces of an anthropomorphic phantom and a human subject, which were positioned with a computer-aided design model of a TrueBeam machine to create a detailed virtual geometrical collision model. The collision model included gantry, collimator, and couch motion degrees of freedom. The accuracy of the 3D scanner was validated by scanning a rigid cubical phantom with known dimensions. The collision model was then validated by generating 300 linear accelerator orientations corresponding to 300 gantry-to-couch and gantry-to-phantom distances, and comparing the corresponding distance measurements to their corresponding models. The linear accelerator orientations reflected uniformly sampled noncoplanar beam angles to the head, lung, and prostate. The distance discrepancies between measurements on the physical and virtual systems were used to estimate treatment-site-specific safety buffer distances with 0.1%, 0.01%, and 0.001% probability of collision between the gantry and couch or phantom. Plans containing 20 noncoplanar beams to the brain, lung, and prostate optimized via an in-house noncoplanar radiotherapy platform were converted into XML script for automated delivery and the entire delivery was recorded and timed to demonstrate the feasibility of automated delivery. Results: The 3D scanner measured the dimension of the 14 cm cubic phantom within 0.5 mm. The maximal absolute discrepancy between machine and model measurements for gantry-to-couch and gantry-to-phantom was 0.95 and 2.97 cm, respectively. The reduced accuracy of gantry-to-phantom measurements was

  15. High IFIT1 expression predicts improved clinical outcome, and IFIT1 along with MGMT more accurately predicts prognosis in newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jin-Feng; Chen, Yao; Lin, Guo-Shi; Zhang, Jian-Dong; Tang, Wen-Long; Huang, Jian-Huang; Chen, Jin-Shou; Wang, Xing-Fu; Lin, Zhi-Xiong

    2016-06-01

    Interferon-induced protein with tetratricopeptide repeat 1 (IFIT1) plays a key role in growth suppression and apoptosis promotion in cancer cells. Interferon was reported to induce the expression of IFIT1 and inhibit the expression of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT).This study aimed to investigate the expression of IFIT1, the correlation between IFIT1 and MGMT, and their impact on the clinical outcome in newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The expression of IFIT1 and MGMT and their correlation were investigated in the tumor tissues from 70 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The effects on progression-free survival and overall survival were evaluated. Of 70 cases, 57 (81.4%) tissue samples showed high expression of IFIT1 by immunostaining. The χ(2) test indicated that the expression of IFIT1 and MGMT was negatively correlated (r = -0.288, P = .016). Univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed high IFIT1 expression as a favorable prognostic indicator for progression-free survival (P = .005 and .017) and overall survival (P = .001 and .001), respectively. Patients with 2 favorable factors (high IFIT1 and low MGMT) had an improved prognosis as compared with others. The results demonstrated significantly increased expression of IFIT1 in newly diagnosed glioblastoma tissue. The negative correlation between IFIT1 and MGMT expression may be triggered by interferon. High IFIT1 can be a predictive biomarker of favorable clinical outcome, and IFIT1 along with MGMT more accurately predicts prognosis in newly diagnosed glioblastoma. PMID:26980050

  16. Accurate ab initio prediction of NMR chemical shifts of nucleic acids and nucleic acids/protein complexes

    PubMed Central

    Victora, Andrea; Möller, Heiko M.; Exner, Thomas E.

    2014-01-01

    NMR chemical shift predictions based on empirical methods are nowadays indispensable tools during resonance assignment and 3D structure calculation of proteins. However, owing to the very limited statistical data basis, such methods are still in their infancy in the field of nucleic acids, especially when non-canonical structures and nucleic acid complexes are considered. Here, we present an ab initio approach for predicting proton chemical shifts of arbitrary nucleic acid structures based on state-of-the-art fragment-based quantum chemical calculations. We tested our prediction method on a diverse set of nucleic acid structures including double-stranded DNA, hairpins, DNA/protein complexes and chemically-modified DNA. Overall, our quantum chemical calculations yield highly/very accurate predictions with mean absolute deviations of 0.3–0.6 ppm and correlation coefficients (r2) usually above 0.9. This will allow for identifying misassignments and validating 3D structures. Furthermore, our calculations reveal that chemical shifts of protons involved in hydrogen bonding are predicted significantly less accurately. This is in part caused by insufficient inclusion of solvation effects. However, it also points toward shortcomings of current force fields used for structure determination of nucleic acids. Our quantum chemical calculations could therefore provide input for force field optimization. PMID:25404135

  17. Change in body mass accurately and reliably predicts change in body water after endurance exercise.

    PubMed

    Baker, Lindsay B; Lang, James A; Kenney, W Larry

    2009-04-01

    This study tested the hypothesis that the change in body mass (DeltaBM) accurately reflects the change in total body water (DeltaTBW) after prolonged exercise. Subjects (4 men, 4 women; 22-36 year; 66 +/- 10 kg) completed 2 h of interval running (70% VO(2max)) in the heat (30 degrees C), followed by a run to exhaustion (85% VO(2max)), and then sat for a 1 h recovery period. During exercise and recovery, subjects drank fluid or no fluid to maintain their BM, increase BM by 2%, or decrease BM by 2 or 4% in separate trials. Pre- and post-experiment TBW were determined using the deuterium oxide (D(2)O) dilution technique and corrected for D(2)O lost in urine, sweat, breath vapor, and nonaqueous hydrogen exchange. The average difference between DeltaBM and DeltaTBW was 0.07 +/- 1.07 kg (paired t test, P = 0.29). The slope and intercept of the relation between DeltaBM and DeltaTBW were not significantly different from 1 and 0, respectively. The intraclass correlation coefficient between DeltaBM and DeltaTBW was 0.76, which is indicative of excellent reliability between methods. Measuring pre- to post-exercise DeltaBM is an accurate and reliable method to assess the DeltaTBW.

  18. Simple Learned Weighted Sums of Inferior Temporal Neuronal Firing Rates Accurately Predict Human Core Object Recognition Performance.

    PubMed

    Majaj, Najib J; Hong, Ha; Solomon, Ethan A; DiCarlo, James J

    2015-09-30

    To go beyond qualitative models of the biological substrate of object recognition, we ask: can a single ventral stream neuronal linking hypothesis quantitatively account for core object recognition performance over a broad range of tasks? We measured human performance in 64 object recognition tests using thousands of challenging images that explore shape similarity and identity preserving object variation. We then used multielectrode arrays to measure neuronal population responses to those same images in visual areas V4 and inferior temporal (IT) cortex of monkeys and simulated V1 population responses. We tested leading candidate linking hypotheses and control hypotheses, each postulating how ventral stream neuronal responses underlie object recognition behavior. Specifically, for each hypothesis, we computed the predicted performance on the 64 tests and compared it with the measured pattern of human performance. All tested hypotheses based on low- and mid-level visually evoked activity (pixels, V1, and V4) were very poor predictors of the human behavioral pattern. However, simple learned weighted sums of distributed average IT firing rates exactly predicted the behavioral pattern. More elaborate linking hypotheses relying on IT trial-by-trial correlational structure, finer IT temporal codes, or ones that strictly respect the known spatial substructures of IT ("face patches") did not improve predictive power. Although these results do not reject those more elaborate hypotheses, they suggest a simple, sufficient quantitative model: each object recognition task is learned from the spatially distributed mean firing rates (100 ms) of ∼60,000 IT neurons and is executed as a simple weighted sum of those firing rates. Significance statement: We sought to go beyond qualitative models of visual object recognition and determine whether a single neuronal linking hypothesis can quantitatively account for core object recognition behavior. To achieve this, we designed a

  19. Simple Learned Weighted Sums of Inferior Temporal Neuronal Firing Rates Accurately Predict Human Core Object Recognition Performance

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Ha; Solomon, Ethan A.; DiCarlo, James J.

    2015-01-01

    To go beyond qualitative models of the biological substrate of object recognition, we ask: can a single ventral stream neuronal linking hypothesis quantitatively account for core object recognition performance over a broad range of tasks? We measured human performance in 64 object recognition tests using thousands of challenging images that explore shape similarity and identity preserving object variation. We then used multielectrode arrays to measure neuronal population responses to those same images in visual areas V4 and inferior temporal (IT) cortex of monkeys and simulated V1 population responses. We tested leading candidate linking hypotheses and control hypotheses, each postulating how ventral stream neuronal responses underlie object recognition behavior. Specifically, for each hypothesis, we computed the predicted performance on the 64 tests and compared it with the measured pattern of human performance. All tested hypotheses based on low- and mid-level visually evoked activity (pixels, V1, and V4) were very poor predictors of the human behavioral pattern. However, simple learned weighted sums of distributed average IT firing rates exactly predicted the behavioral pattern. More elaborate linking hypotheses relying on IT trial-by-trial correlational structure, finer IT temporal codes, or ones that strictly respect the known spatial substructures of IT (“face patches”) did not improve predictive power. Although these results do not reject those more elaborate hypotheses, they suggest a simple, sufficient quantitative model: each object recognition task is learned from the spatially distributed mean firing rates (100 ms) of ∼60,000 IT neurons and is executed as a simple weighted sum of those firing rates. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT We sought to go beyond qualitative models of visual object recognition and determine whether a single neuronal linking hypothesis can quantitatively account for core object recognition behavior. To achieve this, we designed a

  20. Simple Learned Weighted Sums of Inferior Temporal Neuronal Firing Rates Accurately Predict Human Core Object Recognition Performance.

    PubMed

    Majaj, Najib J; Hong, Ha; Solomon, Ethan A; DiCarlo, James J

    2015-09-30

    To go beyond qualitative models of the biological substrate of object recognition, we ask: can a single ventral stream neuronal linking hypothesis quantitatively account for core object recognition performance over a broad range of tasks? We measured human performance in 64 object recognition tests using thousands of challenging images that explore shape similarity and identity preserving object variation. We then used multielectrode arrays to measure neuronal population responses to those same images in visual areas V4 and inferior temporal (IT) cortex of monkeys and simulated V1 population responses. We tested leading candidate linking hypotheses and control hypotheses, each postulating how ventral stream neuronal responses underlie object recognition behavior. Specifically, for each hypothesis, we computed the predicted performance on the 64 tests and compared it with the measured pattern of human performance. All tested hypotheses based on low- and mid-level visually evoked activity (pixels, V1, and V4) were very poor predictors of the human behavioral pattern. However, simple learned weighted sums of distributed average IT firing rates exactly predicted the behavioral pattern. More elaborate linking hypotheses relying on IT trial-by-trial correlational structure, finer IT temporal codes, or ones that strictly respect the known spatial substructures of IT ("face patches") did not improve predictive power. Although these results do not reject those more elaborate hypotheses, they suggest a simple, sufficient quantitative model: each object recognition task is learned from the spatially distributed mean firing rates (100 ms) of ∼60,000 IT neurons and is executed as a simple weighted sum of those firing rates. Significance statement: We sought to go beyond qualitative models of visual object recognition and determine whether a single neuronal linking hypothesis can quantitatively account for core object recognition behavior. To achieve this, we designed a

  1. Towards Accurate Residue-Residue Hydrophobic Contact Prediction for Alpha Helical Proteins Via Integer Linear Optimization

    PubMed Central

    Rajgaria, R.; McAllister, S. R.; Floudas, C. A.

    2008-01-01

    A new optimization-based method is presented to predict the hydrophobic residue contacts in α-helical proteins. The proposed approach uses a high resolution distance dependent force field to calculate the interaction energy between different residues of a protein. The formulation predicts the hydrophobic contacts by minimizing the sum of these contact energies. These residue contacts are highly useful in narrowing down the conformational space searched by protein structure prediction algorithms. The proposed algorithm also offers the algorithmic advantage of producing a rank ordered list of the best contact sets. This model was tested on four independent α-helical protein test sets and was found to perform very well. The average accuracy of the predictions (separated by at least six residues) obtained using the presented method was approximately 66% for single domain proteins. The average true positive and false positive distances were also calculated for each protein test set and they are 8.87 Å and 14.67 Å respectively. PMID:18767158

  2. Industrial Compositional Streamline Simulation for Efficient and Accurate Prediction of Gas Injection and WAG Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Margot Gerritsen

    2008-10-31

    Gas-injection processes are widely and increasingly used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the United States, for example, EOR production by gas injection accounts for approximately 45% of total EOR production and has tripled since 1986. The understanding of the multiphase, multicomponent flow taking place in any displacement process is essential for successful design of gas-injection projects. Due to complex reservoir geometry, reservoir fluid properties and phase behavior, the design of accurate and efficient numerical simulations for the multiphase, multicomponent flow governing these processes is nontrivial. In this work, we developed, implemented and tested a streamline based solver for gas injection processes that is computationally very attractive: as compared to traditional Eulerian solvers in use by industry it computes solutions with a computational speed orders of magnitude higher and a comparable accuracy provided that cross-flow effects do not dominate. We contributed to the development of compositional streamline solvers in three significant ways: improvement of the overall framework allowing improved streamline coverage and partial streamline tracing, amongst others; parallelization of the streamline code, which significantly improves wall clock time; and development of new compositional solvers that can be implemented along streamlines as well as in existing Eulerian codes used by industry. We designed several novel ideas in the streamline framework. First, we developed an adaptive streamline coverage algorithm. Adding streamlines locally can reduce computational costs by concentrating computational efforts where needed, and reduce mapping errors. Adapting streamline coverage effectively controls mass balance errors that mostly result from the mapping from streamlines to pressure grid. We also introduced the concept of partial streamlines: streamlines that do not necessarily start and/or end at wells. This allows more efficient coverage and avoids

  3. Accurate, conformation-dependent predictions of solvent effects on protein ionization constants

    PubMed Central

    Barth, P.; Alber, T.; Harbury, P. B.

    2007-01-01

    Predicting how aqueous solvent modulates the conformational transitions and influences the pKa values that regulate the biological functions of biomolecules remains an unsolved challenge. To address this problem, we developed FDPB_MF, a rotamer repacking method that exhaustively samples side chain conformational space and rigorously calculates multibody protein–solvent interactions. FDPB_MF predicts the effects on pKa values of various solvent exposures, large ionic strength variations, strong energetic couplings, structural reorganizations and sequence mutations. The method achieves high accuracy, with root mean square deviations within 0.3 pH unit of the experimental values measured for turkey ovomucoid third domain, hen lysozyme, Bacillus circulans xylanase, and human and Escherichia coli thioredoxins. FDPB_MF provides a faithful, quantitative assessment of electrostatic interactions in biological macromolecules. PMID:17360348

  4. Revisiting the blind tests in crystal structure prediction: accurate energy ranking of molecular crystals.

    PubMed

    Asmadi, Aldi; Neumann, Marcus A; Kendrick, John; Girard, Pascale; Perrin, Marc-Antoine; Leusen, Frank J J

    2009-12-24

    In the 2007 blind test of crystal structure prediction hosted by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC), a hybrid DFT/MM method correctly ranked each of the four experimental structures as having the lowest lattice energy of all the crystal structures predicted for each molecule. The work presented here further validates this hybrid method by optimizing the crystal structures (experimental and submitted) of the first three CCDC blind tests held in 1999, 2001, and 2004. Except for the crystal structures of compound IX, all structures were reminimized and ranked according to their lattice energies. The hybrid method computes the lattice energy of a crystal structure as the sum of the DFT total energy and a van der Waals (dispersion) energy correction. Considering all four blind tests, the crystal structure with the lowest lattice energy corresponds to the experimentally observed structure for 12 out of 14 molecules. Moreover, good geometrical agreement is observed between the structures determined by the hybrid method and those measured experimentally. In comparison with the correct submissions made by the blind test participants, all hybrid optimized crystal structures (apart from compound II) have the smallest calculated root mean squared deviations from the experimentally observed structures. It is predicted that a new polymorph of compound V exists under pressure.

  5. Fast and accurate numerical method for predicting gas chromatography retention time.

    PubMed

    Claumann, Carlos Alberto; Wüst Zibetti, André; Bolzan, Ariovaldo; Machado, Ricardo A F; Pinto, Leonel Teixeira

    2015-08-01

    Predictive modeling for gas chromatography compound retention depends on the retention factor (ki) and on the flow of the mobile phase. Thus, different approaches for determining an analyte ki in column chromatography have been developed. The main one is based on the thermodynamic properties of the component and on the characteristics of the stationary phase. These models can be used to estimate the parameters and to optimize the programming of temperatures, in gas chromatography, for the separation of compounds. Different authors have proposed the use of numerical methods for solving these models, but these methods demand greater computational time. Hence, a new method for solving the predictive modeling of analyte retention time is presented. This algorithm is an alternative to traditional methods because it transforms its attainments into root determination problems within defined intervals. The proposed approach allows for tr calculation, with accuracy determined by the user of the methods, and significant reductions in computational time; it can also be used to evaluate the performance of other prediction methods.

  6. Revisiting the blind tests in crystal structure prediction: accurate energy ranking of molecular crystals.

    PubMed

    Asmadi, Aldi; Neumann, Marcus A; Kendrick, John; Girard, Pascale; Perrin, Marc-Antoine; Leusen, Frank J J

    2009-12-24

    In the 2007 blind test of crystal structure prediction hosted by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC), a hybrid DFT/MM method correctly ranked each of the four experimental structures as having the lowest lattice energy of all the crystal structures predicted for each molecule. The work presented here further validates this hybrid method by optimizing the crystal structures (experimental and submitted) of the first three CCDC blind tests held in 1999, 2001, and 2004. Except for the crystal structures of compound IX, all structures were reminimized and ranked according to their lattice energies. The hybrid method computes the lattice energy of a crystal structure as the sum of the DFT total energy and a van der Waals (dispersion) energy correction. Considering all four blind tests, the crystal structure with the lowest lattice energy corresponds to the experimentally observed structure for 12 out of 14 molecules. Moreover, good geometrical agreement is observed between the structures determined by the hybrid method and those measured experimentally. In comparison with the correct submissions made by the blind test participants, all hybrid optimized crystal structures (apart from compound II) have the smallest calculated root mean squared deviations from the experimentally observed structures. It is predicted that a new polymorph of compound V exists under pressure. PMID:19950907

  7. HAAD: A quick algorithm for accurate prediction of hydrogen atoms in protein structures.

    PubMed

    Li, Yunqi; Roy, Ambrish; Zhang, Yang

    2009-08-20

    Hydrogen constitutes nearly half of all atoms in proteins and their positions are essential for analyzing hydrogen-bonding interactions and refining atomic-level structures. However, most protein structures determined by experiments or computer prediction lack hydrogen coordinates. We present a new algorithm, HAAD, to predict the positions of hydrogen atoms based on the positions of heavy atoms. The algorithm is built on the basic rules of orbital hybridization followed by the optimization of steric repulsion and electrostatic interactions. We tested the algorithm using three independent data sets: ultra-high-resolution X-ray structures, structures determined by neutron diffraction, and NOE proton-proton distances. Compared with the widely used programs CHARMM and REDUCE, HAAD has a significantly higher accuracy, with the average RMSD of the predicted hydrogen atoms to the X-ray and neutron diffraction structures decreased by 26% and 11%, respectively. Furthermore, hydrogen atoms placed by HAAD have more matches with the NOE restraints and fewer clashes with heavy atoms. The average CPU cost by HAAD is 18 and 8 times lower than that of CHARMM and REDUCE, respectively. The significant advantage of HAAD in both the accuracy and the speed of the hydrogen additions should make HAAD a useful tool for the detailed study of protein structure and function. Both an executable and the source code of HAAD are freely available at http://zhang.bioinformatics.ku.edu/HAAD.

  8. Comparative motif discovery combined with comparative transcriptomics yields accurate targetome and enhancer predictions.

    PubMed

    Naval-Sánchez, Marina; Potier, Delphine; Haagen, Lotte; Sánchez, Máximo; Munck, Sebastian; Van de Sande, Bram; Casares, Fernando; Christiaens, Valerie; Aerts, Stein

    2013-01-01

    The identification of transcription factor binding sites, enhancers, and transcriptional target genes often relies on the integration of gene expression profiling and computational cis-regulatory sequence analysis. Methods for the prediction of cis-regulatory elements can take advantage of comparative genomics to increase signal-to-noise levels. However, gene expression data are usually derived from only one species. Here we investigate tissue-specific cross-species gene expression profiling by high-throughput sequencing, combined with cross-species motif discovery. First, we compared different methods for expression level quantification and cross-species integration using Tag-seq data. Using the optimal pipeline, we derived a set of genes with conserved expression during retinal determination across Drosophila melanogaster, Drosophila yakuba, and Drosophila virilis. These genes are enriched for binding sites of eye-related transcription factors including the zinc-finger Glass, a master regulator of photoreceptor differentiation. Validation of predicted Glass targets using RNA-seq in homozygous glass mutants confirms that the majority of our predictions are expressed downstream from Glass. Finally, we tested nine candidate enhancers by in vivo reporter assays and found eight of them to drive GFP in the eye disc, of which seven colocalize with the Glass protein, namely, scrt, chp, dpr10, CG6329, retn, Lim3, and dmrt99B. In conclusion, we show for the first time the combined use of cross-species expression profiling with cross-species motif discovery as a method to define a core developmental program, and we augment the candidate Glass targetome from a single known target gene, lozenge, to at least 62 conserved transcriptional targets. PMID:23070853

  9. PSSP-RFE: Accurate Prediction of Protein Structural Class by Recursive Feature Extraction from PSI-BLAST Profile, Physical-Chemical Property and Functional Annotations

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Sanjiu; Zhang, Yuan; Luo, Zhong; Yang, Hua; Zhou, Yue; Zheng, Xiaoqi

    2014-01-01

    Protein structure prediction is critical to functional annotation of the massively accumulated biological sequences, which prompts an imperative need for the development of high-throughput technologies. As a first and key step in protein structure prediction, protein structural class prediction becomes an increasingly challenging task. Amongst most homological-based approaches, the accuracies of protein structural class prediction are sufficiently high for high similarity datasets, but still far from being satisfactory for low similarity datasets, i.e., below 40% in pairwise sequence similarity. Therefore, we present a novel method for accurate and reliable protein structural class prediction for both high and low similarity datasets. This method is based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) in conjunction with integrated features from position-specific score matrix (PSSM), PROFEAT and Gene Ontology (GO). A feature selection approach, SVM-RFE, is also used to rank the integrated feature vectors through recursively removing the feature with the lowest ranking score. The definitive top features selected by SVM-RFE are input into the SVM engines to predict the structural class of a query protein. To validate our method, jackknife tests were applied to seven widely used benchmark datasets, reaching overall accuracies between 84.61% and 99.79%, which are significantly higher than those achieved by state-of-the-art tools. These results suggest that our method could serve as an accurate and cost-effective alternative to existing methods in protein structural classification, especially for low similarity datasets. PMID:24675610

  10. Accurate and Rigorous Prediction of the Changes in Protein Free Energies in a Large-Scale Mutation Scan.

    PubMed

    Gapsys, Vytautas; Michielssens, Servaas; Seeliger, Daniel; de Groot, Bert L

    2016-06-20

    The prediction of mutation-induced free-energy changes in protein thermostability or protein-protein binding is of particular interest in the fields of protein design, biotechnology, and bioengineering. Herein, we achieve remarkable accuracy in a scan of 762 mutations estimating changes in protein thermostability based on the first principles of statistical mechanics. The remaining error in the free-energy estimates appears to be due to three sources in approximately equal parts, namely sampling, force-field inaccuracies, and experimental uncertainty. We propose a consensus force-field approach, which, together with an increased sampling time, leads to a free-energy prediction accuracy that matches those reached in experiments. This versatile approach enables accurate free-energy estimates for diverse proteins, including the prediction of changes in the melting temperature of the membrane protein neurotensin receptor 1. PMID:27122231

  11. CRYSpred: accurate sequence-based protein crystallization propensity prediction using sequence-derived structural characteristics.

    PubMed

    Mizianty, Marcin J; Kurgan, Lukasz A

    2012-01-01

    Relatively low success rates of X-ray crystallography, which is the most popular method for solving proteins structures, motivate development of novel methods that support selection of tractable protein targets. This aspect is particularly important in the context of the current structural genomics efforts that allow for a certain degree of flexibility in the target selection. We propose CRYSpred, a novel in-silico crystallization propensity predictor that uses a set of 15 novel features which utilize a broad range of inputs including charge, hydrophobicity, and amino acid composition derived from the protein chain, and the solvent accessibility and disorder predicted from the protein sequence. Our method outperforms seven modern crystallization propensity predictors on three, independent from training dataset, benchmark test datasets. The strong predictive performance offered by the CRYSpred is attributed to the careful design of the features, utilization of the comprehensive set of inputs, and the usage of the Support Vector Machine classifier. The inputs utilized by CRYSpred are well-aligned with the existing rules-of-thumb that are used in the structural genomics studies. PMID:21919861

  12. CRYSpred: accurate sequence-based protein crystallization propensity prediction using sequence-derived structural characteristics.

    PubMed

    Mizianty, Marcin J; Kurgan, Lukasz A

    2012-01-01

    Relatively low success rates of X-ray crystallography, which is the most popular method for solving proteins structures, motivate development of novel methods that support selection of tractable protein targets. This aspect is particularly important in the context of the current structural genomics efforts that allow for a certain degree of flexibility in the target selection. We propose CRYSpred, a novel in-silico crystallization propensity predictor that uses a set of 15 novel features which utilize a broad range of inputs including charge, hydrophobicity, and amino acid composition derived from the protein chain, and the solvent accessibility and disorder predicted from the protein sequence. Our method outperforms seven modern crystallization propensity predictors on three, independent from training dataset, benchmark test datasets. The strong predictive performance offered by the CRYSpred is attributed to the careful design of the features, utilization of the comprehensive set of inputs, and the usage of the Support Vector Machine classifier. The inputs utilized by CRYSpred are well-aligned with the existing rules-of-thumb that are used in the structural genomics studies.

  13. Accurate predictions of dielectrophoretic force and torque on particles with strong mutual field, particle, and wall interactions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liu, Qianlong; Reifsnider, Kenneth

    2012-11-01

    The basis of dielectrophoresis (DEP) is the prediction of the force and torque on particles. The classical approach to the prediction is based on the effective moment method, which, however, is an approximate approach, assumes infinitesimal particles. Therefore, it is well-known that for finite-sized particles, the DEP approximation is inaccurate as the mutual field, particle, wall interactions become strong, a situation presently attracting extensive research for practical significant applications. In the present talk, we provide accurate calculations of the force and torque on the particles from first principles, by directly resolving the local geometry and properties and accurately accounting for the mutual interactions for finite-sized particles with both dielectric polarization and conduction in a sinusoidally steady-state electric field. Since the approach has a significant advantage, compared to other numerical methods, to efficiently simulate many closely packed particles, it provides an important, unique, and accurate technique to investigate complex DEP phenomena, for example heterogeneous mixtures containing particle chains, nanoparticle assembly, biological cells, non-spherical effects, etc. This study was supported by the Department of Energy under funding for an EFRC (the HeteroFoaM Center), grant no. DE-SC0001061.

  14. A time accurate prediction of the viscous flow in a turbine stage including a rotor in motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shavalikul, Akamol

    In this current study, the flow field in the Pennsylvania State University Axial Flow Turbine Research Facility (AFTRF) was simulated. This study examined four sets of simulations. The first two sets are for an individual NGV and for an individual rotor. The last two sets use a multiple reference frames approach for a complete turbine stage with two different interface models: a steady circumferential average approach called a mixing plane model, and a time accurate flow simulation approach called a sliding mesh model. The NGV passage flow field was simulated using a three-dimensional Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes finite volume solver (RANS) with a standard kappa -- epsilon turbulence model. The mean flow distributions on the NGV surfaces and endwall surfaces were computed. The numerical solutions indicate that two passage vortices begin to be observed approximately at the mid axial chord of the NGV suction surface. The first vortex is a casing passage vortex which occurs at the corner formed by the NGV suction surface and the casing. This vortex is created by the interaction of the passage flow and the radially inward flow, while the second vortex, the hub passage vortex, is observed near the hub. These two vortices become stronger towards the NGV trailing edge. By comparing the results from the X/Cx = 1.025 plane and the X/Cx = 1.09 plane, it can be concluded that the NGV wake decays rapidly within a short axial distance downstream of the NGV. For the rotor, a set of simulations was carried out to examine the flow fields associated with different pressure side tip extension configurations, which are designed to reduce the tip leakage flow. The simulation results show that significant reductions in tip leakage mass flow rate and aerodynamic loss reduction are possible by using suitable tip platform extensions located near the pressure side corner of the blade tip. The computations used realistic turbine rotor inlet flow conditions in a linear cascade arrangement

  15. A novel method to predict visual field progression more accurately, using intraocular pressure measurements in glaucoma patients

    PubMed Central

    Asaoka, Ryo; Fujino, Yuri; Murata, Hiroshi; Miki, Atsuya; Tanito, Masaki; Mizoue, Shiro; Mori, Kazuhiko; Suzuki, Katsuyoshi; Yamashita, Takehiro; Kashiwagi, Kenji; Shoji, Nobuyuki

    2016-01-01

    Visual field (VF) data were retrospectively obtained from 491 eyes in 317 patients with open angle glaucoma who had undergone ten VF tests (Humphrey Field Analyzer, 24-2, SITA standard). First, mean of total deviation values (mTD) in the tenth VF was predicted using standard linear regression of the first five VFs (VF1-5) through to using all nine preceding VFs (VF1-9). Then an ‘intraocular pressure (IOP)-integrated VF trend analysis’ was carried out by simply using time multiplied by IOP as the independent term in the linear regression model. Prediction errors (absolute prediction error or root mean squared error: RMSE) for predicting mTD and also point wise TD values of the tenth VF were obtained from both approaches. The mTD absolute prediction errors associated with the IOP-integrated VF trend analysis were significantly smaller than those from the standard trend analysis when VF1-6 through to VF1-8 were used (p < 0.05). The point wise RMSEs from the IOP-integrated trend analysis were significantly smaller than those from the standard trend analysis when VF1-5 through to VF1-9 were used (p < 0.05). This was especially the case when IOP was measured more frequently. Thus a significantly more accurate prediction of VF progression is possible using a simple trend analysis that incorporates IOP measurements. PMID:27562553

  16. A novel method to predict visual field progression more accurately, using intraocular pressure measurements in glaucoma patients.

    PubMed

    2016-01-01

    Visual field (VF) data were retrospectively obtained from 491 eyes in 317 patients with open angle glaucoma who had undergone ten VF tests (Humphrey Field Analyzer, 24-2, SITA standard). First, mean of total deviation values (mTD) in the tenth VF was predicted using standard linear regression of the first five VFs (VF1-5) through to using all nine preceding VFs (VF1-9). Then an 'intraocular pressure (IOP)-integrated VF trend analysis' was carried out by simply using time multiplied by IOP as the independent term in the linear regression model. Prediction errors (absolute prediction error or root mean squared error: RMSE) for predicting mTD and also point wise TD values of the tenth VF were obtained from both approaches. The mTD absolute prediction errors associated with the IOP-integrated VF trend analysis were significantly smaller than those from the standard trend analysis when VF1-6 through to VF1-8 were used (p < 0.05). The point wise RMSEs from the IOP-integrated trend analysis were significantly smaller than those from the standard trend analysis when VF1-5 through to VF1-9 were used (p < 0.05). This was especially the case when IOP was measured more frequently. Thus a significantly more accurate prediction of VF progression is possible using a simple trend analysis that incorporates IOP measurements. PMID:27562553

  17. nuMap: a web platform for accurate prediction of nucleosome positioning.

    PubMed

    Alharbi, Bader A; Alshammari, Thamir H; Felton, Nathan L; Zhurkin, Victor B; Cui, Feng

    2014-10-01

    Nucleosome positioning is critical for gene expression and of major biological interest. The high cost of experimentally mapping nucleosomal arrangement signifies the need for computational approaches to predict nucleosome positions at high resolution. Here, we present a web-based application to fulfill this need by implementing two models, YR and W/S schemes, for the translational and rotational positioning of nucleosomes, respectively. Our methods are based on sequence-dependent anisotropic bending that dictates how DNA is wrapped around a histone octamer. This application allows users to specify a number of options such as schemes and parameters for threading calculation and provides multiple layout formats. The nuMap is implemented in Java/Perl/MySQL and is freely available for public use at http://numap.rit.edu. The user manual, implementation notes, description of the methodology and examples are available at the site. PMID:25220945

  18. Simplified versus geometrically accurate models of forefoot anatomy to predict plantar pressures: A finite element study.

    PubMed

    Telfer, Scott; Erdemir, Ahmet; Woodburn, James; Cavanagh, Peter R

    2016-01-25

    Integration of patient-specific biomechanical measurements into the design of therapeutic footwear has been shown to improve clinical outcomes in patients with diabetic foot disease. The addition of numerical simulations intended to optimise intervention design may help to build on these advances, however at present the time and labour required to generate and run personalised models of foot anatomy restrict their routine clinical utility. In this study we developed second-generation personalised simple finite element (FE) models of the forefoot with varying geometric fidelities. Plantar pressure predictions from barefoot, shod, and shod with insole simulations using simplified models were compared to those obtained from CT-based FE models incorporating more detailed representations of bone and tissue geometry. A simplified model including representations of metatarsals based on simple geometric shapes, embedded within a contoured soft tissue block with outer geometry acquired from a 3D surface scan was found to provide pressure predictions closest to the more complex model, with mean differences of 13.3kPa (SD 13.4), 12.52kPa (SD 11.9) and 9.6kPa (SD 9.3) for barefoot, shod, and insole conditions respectively. The simplified model design could be produced in <1h compared to >3h in the case of the more detailed model, and solved on average 24% faster. FE models of the forefoot based on simplified geometric representations of the metatarsal bones and soft tissue surface geometry from 3D surface scans may potentially provide a simulation approach with improved clinical utility, however further validity testing around a range of therapeutic footwear types is required.

  19. Four-protein signature accurately predicts lymph node metastasis and survival in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Zanaruddin, Sharifah Nurain Syed; Saleh, Amyza; Yang, Yi-Hsin; Hamid, Sharifah; Mustafa, Wan Mahadzir Wan; Khairul Bariah, A A N; Zain, Rosnah Binti; Lau, Shin Hin; Cheong, Sok Ching

    2013-03-01

    The presence of lymph node (LN) metastasis significantly affects the survival of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Successful detection and removal of positive LNs are crucial in the treatment of this disease. Current evaluation methods still have their limitations in detecting the presence of tumor cells in the LNs, where up to a third of clinically diagnosed metastasis-negative (N0) patients actually have metastasis-positive LNs in the neck. We developed a molecular signature in the primary tumor that could predict LN metastasis in OSCC. A total of 211 cores from 55 individuals were included in the study. Eleven proteins were evaluated using immunohistochemical analysis in a tissue microarray. Of the 11 biomarkers evaluated using receiver operating curve analysis, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), v-erb-b2 erythroblastic leukemia viral oncogene homolog 2 (HER-2/neu), laminin, gamma 2 (LAMC2), and ras homolog family member C (RHOC) were found to be significantly associated with the presence of LN metastasis. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering-demonstrated expression patterns of these 4 proteins could be used to differentiate specimens that have positive LN metastasis from those that are negative for LN metastasis. Collectively, EGFR, HER-2/neu, LAMC2, and RHOC have a specificity of 87.5% and a sensitivity of 70%, with a prognostic accuracy of 83.4% for LN metastasis. We also demonstrated that the LN signature could independently predict disease-specific survival (P = .036). The 4-protein LN signature validated in an independent set of samples strongly suggests that it could reliably distinguish patients with LN metastasis from those who were metastasis-free and therefore could be a prognostic tool for the management of patients with OSCC.

  20. Four-protein signature accurately predicts lymph node metastasis and survival in oral squamous cell carcinoma.

    PubMed

    Zanaruddin, Sharifah Nurain Syed; Saleh, Amyza; Yang, Yi-Hsin; Hamid, Sharifah; Mustafa, Wan Mahadzir Wan; Khairul Bariah, A A N; Zain, Rosnah Binti; Lau, Shin Hin; Cheong, Sok Ching

    2013-03-01

    The presence of lymph node (LN) metastasis significantly affects the survival of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC). Successful detection and removal of positive LNs are crucial in the treatment of this disease. Current evaluation methods still have their limitations in detecting the presence of tumor cells in the LNs, where up to a third of clinically diagnosed metastasis-negative (N0) patients actually have metastasis-positive LNs in the neck. We developed a molecular signature in the primary tumor that could predict LN metastasis in OSCC. A total of 211 cores from 55 individuals were included in the study. Eleven proteins were evaluated using immunohistochemical analysis in a tissue microarray. Of the 11 biomarkers evaluated using receiver operating curve analysis, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), v-erb-b2 erythroblastic leukemia viral oncogene homolog 2 (HER-2/neu), laminin, gamma 2 (LAMC2), and ras homolog family member C (RHOC) were found to be significantly associated with the presence of LN metastasis. Unsupervised hierarchical clustering-demonstrated expression patterns of these 4 proteins could be used to differentiate specimens that have positive LN metastasis from those that are negative for LN metastasis. Collectively, EGFR, HER-2/neu, LAMC2, and RHOC have a specificity of 87.5% and a sensitivity of 70%, with a prognostic accuracy of 83.4% for LN metastasis. We also demonstrated that the LN signature could independently predict disease-specific survival (P = .036). The 4-protein LN signature validated in an independent set of samples strongly suggests that it could reliably distinguish patients with LN metastasis from those who were metastasis-free and therefore could be a prognostic tool for the management of patients with OSCC. PMID:23026198

  1. Accurate predictions of C-SO2R bond dissociation enthalpies using density functional theory methods.

    PubMed

    Yu, Hai-Zhu; Fu, Fang; Zhang, Liang; Fu, Yao; Dang, Zhi-Min; Shi, Jing

    2014-10-14

    The dissociation of the C-SO2R bond is frequently involved in organic and bio-organic reactions, and the C-SO2R bond dissociation enthalpies (BDEs) are potentially important for understanding the related mechanisms. The primary goal of the present study is to provide a reliable calculation method to predict the different C-SO2R bond dissociation enthalpies (BDEs). Comparing the accuracies of 13 different density functional theory (DFT) methods (such as B3LYP, TPSS, and M05 etc.), and different basis sets (such as 6-31G(d) and 6-311++G(2df,2p)), we found that M06-2X/6-31G(d) gives the best performance in reproducing the various C-S BDEs (and especially the C-SO2R BDEs). As an example for understanding the mechanisms with the aid of C-SO2R BDEs, some primary mechanistic studies were carried out on the chemoselective coupling (in the presence of a Cu-catalyst) or desulfinative coupling reactions (in the presence of a Pd-catalyst) between sulfinic acid salts and boryl/sulfinic acid salts.

  2. An improved method for accurate prediction of mass flows through combustor liner holes

    SciTech Connect

    Adkins, R.C.; Gueroui, D.

    1986-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to present a simple approach to the solution of flow through combustor liner holes which can be used by practicing combustor engineers as well as providing the specialist modeler with a convenient boundary condition. For modeling, suppose that all relevant details of the incoming jets can be readily predicted, then the computational boundary can be limited to the inner wall of the liner and to the jets themselves. The scope of this paper is limited to the derivation of a simple analysis, the development of a reliable test technique, and to the correlation of data for plane holes having a diameter which is large when compared to the liner wall thickness. The effect of internal liner flow on the performance of the holes is neglected; this is considered to be justifiable because the analysis terminates at a short distance downstream of the hole and the significantly lower velocities inside the combustor have had little opportunity to have taken any effect. It is intended to extend the procedure to more complex hole forms and flow configurations in later papers.

  3. Line Shape Parameters for CO_2 Transitions: Accurate Predictions from Complex Robert-Bonamy Calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lamouroux, Julien; Gamache, Robert R.

    2013-06-01

    A model for the prediction of the vibrational dependence of CO_2 half-widths and line shifts for several broadeners, based on a modification of the model proposed by Gamache and Hartmann, is presented. This model allows the half-widths and line shifts for a ro-vibrational transition to be expressed in terms of the number of vibrational quanta exchanged in the transition raised to a power p and a reference ro-vibrational transition. Complex Robert-Bonamy calculations were made for 24 bands for lower rotational quantum numbers J'' from 0 to 160 for N_2-, O_2-, air-, and self-collisions with CO_2. In the model a Quantum Coordinate is defined by (c_1 Δν_1 + c_2 Δν_2 + c_3 Δν_3)^p where a linear least-squares fit to the data by the model expression is made. The model allows the determination of the slope and intercept as a function of rotational transition, broadening gas, and temperature. From these fit data, the half-width, line shift, and the temperature dependence of the half-width can be estimated for any ro-vibrational transition, allowing spectroscopic CO_2 databases to have complete information for the line shape parameters. R. R. Gamache, J.-M. Hartmann, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer. {{83}} (2004), 119. R. R. Gamache, J. Lamouroux, J. Quant. Spectrosc. Radiat. Transfer. {{117}} (2013), 93.

  4. Length of sick leave – Why not ask the sick-listed? Sick-listed individuals predict their length of sick leave more accurately than professionals

    PubMed Central

    Fleten, Nils; Johnsen, Roar; Førde, Olav Helge

    2004-01-01

    Background The knowledge of factors accurately predicting the long lasting sick leaves is sparse, but information on medical condition is believed to be necessary to identify persons at risk. Based on the current practice, with identifying sick-listed individuals at risk of long-lasting sick leaves, the objectives of this study were to inquire the diagnostic accuracy of length of sick leaves predicted in the Norwegian National Insurance Offices, and to compare their predictions with the self-predictions of the sick-listed. Methods Based on medical certificates, two National Insurance medical consultants and two National Insurance officers predicted, at day 14, the length of sick leave in 993 consecutive cases of sick leave, resulting from musculoskeletal or mental disorders, in this 1-year follow-up study. Two months later they reassessed 322 cases based on extended medical certificates. Self-predictions were obtained in 152 sick-listed subjects when their sick leave passed 14 days. Diagnostic accuracy of the predictions was analysed by ROC area, sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratio, and positive predictive value was included in the analyses of predictive validity. Results The sick-listed identified sick leave lasting 12 weeks or longer with an ROC area of 80.9% (95% CI 73.7–86.8), while the corresponding estimates for medical consultants and officers had ROC areas of 55.6% (95% CI 45.6–65.6%) and 56.0% (95% CI 46.6–65.4%), respectively. The predictions of sick-listed males were significantly better than those of female subjects, and older subjects predicted somewhat better than younger subjects. Neither formal medical competence, nor additional medical information, noticeably improved the diagnostic accuracy based on medical certificates. Conclusion This study demonstrates that the accuracy of a prognosis based on medical documentation in sickness absence forms, is lower than that of one based on direct communication with the sick-listed themselves

  5. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  6. A Systematic Review of Predictions of Survival in Palliative Care: How Accurate Are Clinicians and Who Are the Experts?

    PubMed Central

    Harris, Adam; Harries, Priscilla

    2016-01-01

    overall accuracy being reported. Data were extracted using a standardised tool, by one reviewer, which could have introduced bias. Devising search terms for prognostic studies is challenging. Every attempt was made to devise search terms that were sufficiently sensitive to detect all prognostic studies; however, it remains possible that some studies were not identified. Conclusion Studies of prognostic accuracy in palliative care are heterogeneous, but the evidence suggests that clinicians’ predictions are frequently inaccurate. No sub-group of clinicians was consistently shown to be more accurate than any other. Implications of Key Findings Further research is needed to understand how clinical predictions are formulated and how their accuracy can be improved. PMID:27560380

  7. Accurate Prediction of the Statistics of Repetitions in Random Sequences: A Case Study in Archaea Genomes

    PubMed Central

    Régnier, Mireille; Chassignet, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Repetitive patterns in genomic sequences have a great biological significance and also algorithmic implications. Analytic combinatorics allow to derive formula for the expected length of repetitions in a random sequence. Asymptotic results, which generalize previous works on a binary alphabet, are easily computable. Simulations on random sequences show their accuracy. As an application, the sample case of Archaea genomes illustrates how biological sequences may differ from random sequences. PMID:27376057

  8. Accurate Prediction of the Statistics of Repetitions in Random Sequences: A Case Study in Archaea Genomes.

    PubMed

    Régnier, Mireille; Chassignet, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Repetitive patterns in genomic sequences have a great biological significance and also algorithmic implications. Analytic combinatorics allow to derive formula for the expected length of repetitions in a random sequence. Asymptotic results, which generalize previous works on a binary alphabet, are easily computable. Simulations on random sequences show their accuracy. As an application, the sample case of Archaea genomes illustrates how biological sequences may differ from random sequences.

  9. Accurate Prediction of the Statistics of Repetitions in Random Sequences: A Case Study in Archaea Genomes.

    PubMed

    Régnier, Mireille; Chassignet, Philippe

    2016-01-01

    Repetitive patterns in genomic sequences have a great biological significance and also algorithmic implications. Analytic combinatorics allow to derive formula for the expected length of repetitions in a random sequence. Asymptotic results, which generalize previous works on a binary alphabet, are easily computable. Simulations on random sequences show their accuracy. As an application, the sample case of Archaea genomes illustrates how biological sequences may differ from random sequences. PMID:27376057

  10. How accurately can subject-specific finite element models predict strains and strength of human femora? Investigation using full-field measurements.

    PubMed

    Grassi, Lorenzo; Väänänen, Sami P; Ristinmaa, Matti; Jurvelin, Jukka S; Isaksson, Hanna

    2016-03-21

    Subject-specific finite element models have been proposed as a tool to improve fracture risk assessment in individuals. A thorough laboratory validation against experimental data is required before introducing such models in clinical practice. Results from digital image correlation can provide full-field strain distribution over the specimen surface during in vitro test, instead of at a few pre-defined locations as with strain gauges. The aim of this study was to validate finite element models of human femora against experimental data from three cadaver femora, both in terms of femoral strength and of the full-field strain distribution collected with digital image correlation. The results showed a high accuracy between predicted and measured principal strains (R(2)=0.93, RMSE=10%, 1600 validated data points per specimen). Femoral strength was predicted using a rate dependent material model with specific strain limit values for yield and failure. This provided an accurate prediction (<2% error) for two out of three specimens. In the third specimen, an accidental change in the boundary conditions occurred during the experiment, which compromised the femoral strength validation. The achieved strain accuracy was comparable to that obtained in state-of-the-art studies which validated their prediction accuracy against 10-16 strain gauge measurements. Fracture force was accurately predicted, with the predicted failure location being very close to the experimental fracture rim. Despite the low sample size and the single loading condition tested, the present combined numerical-experimental method showed that finite element models can predict femoral strength by providing a thorough description of the local bone mechanical response. PMID:26944687

  11. The Dirac equation in electronic structure calculations: Accurate evaluation of DFT predictions for actinides

    SciTech Connect

    Wills, John M; Mattsson, Ann E

    2012-06-06

    Brooks, Johansson, and Skriver, using the LMTO-ASA method and considerable insight, were able to explain many of the ground state properties of the actinides. In the many years since this work was done, electronic structure calculations of increasing sophistication have been applied to actinide elements and compounds, attempting to quantify the applicability of DFT to actinides and actinide compounds and to try to incorporate other methodologies (i.e. DMFT) into DFT calculations. Through these calculations, the limits of both available density functionals and ad hoc methodologies are starting to become clear. However, it has also become clear that approximations used to incorporate relativity are not adequate to provide rigorous tests of the underlying equations of DFT, not to mention ad hoc additions. In this talk, we describe the result of full-potential LMTO calculations for the elemental actinides, comparing results obtained with a full Dirac basis with those obtained from scalar-relativistic bases, with and without variational spin-orbit. This comparison shows that the scalar relativistic treatment of actinides does not have sufficient accuracy to provide a rigorous test of theory and that variational spin-orbit introduces uncontrolled errors in the results of electronic structure calculations on actinide elements.

  12. Ray tracing algorithm for accurate solar irradiance prediction in urban areas.

    PubMed

    Vitucci, Enrico M; Falaschi, Federico; Degli-Esposti, Vittorio

    2014-08-20

    A ray tracing algorithm has been developed to model solar radiation interaction with complex urban environments and, in particular, its effects, including the total irradiance on each surface and overall dissipated power contribution. The proposed model accounts for multiple reflection and diffuse scattering interactions and is based on a rigorous theory, so that the overall power balance is satisfied at the generic surface element. Such approach is validated against measurements in the present work in simple reference scenarios. The results show the importance of multiple-bounce interactions and diffuse scattering to obtain reliable solar irradiance and heat dissipation estimates in urban areas.

  13. A Stationary Wavelet Entropy-Based Clustering Approach Accurately Predicts Gene Expression

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, Nha; Vo, An; Choi, Inchan

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Studying epigenetic landscapes is important to understand the condition for gene regulation. Clustering is a useful approach to study epigenetic landscapes by grouping genes based on their epigenetic conditions. However, classical clustering approaches that often use a representative value of the signals in a fixed-sized window do not fully use the information written in the epigenetic landscapes. Clustering approaches to maximize the information of the epigenetic signals are necessary for better understanding gene regulatory environments. For effective clustering of multidimensional epigenetic signals, we developed a method called Dewer, which uses the entropy of stationary wavelet of epigenetic signals inside enriched regions for gene clustering. Interestingly, the gene expression levels were highly correlated with the entropy levels of epigenetic signals. Dewer separates genes better than a window-based approach in the assessment using gene expression and achieved a correlation coefficient above 0.9 without using any training procedure. Our results show that the changes of the epigenetic signals are useful to study gene regulation. PMID:25383910

  14. NIBBS-Search for Fast and Accurate Prediction of Phenotype-Biased Metabolic Systems

    PubMed Central

    Padmanabhan, Kanchana; Shpanskaya, Yekaterina; Banfield, Jill; Scott, Kathleen; Mihelcic, James R.; Samatova, Nagiza F.

    2012-01-01

    Understanding of genotype-phenotype associations is important not only for furthering our knowledge on internal cellular processes, but also essential for providing the foundation necessary for genetic engineering of microorganisms for industrial use (e.g., production of bioenergy or biofuels). However, genotype-phenotype associations alone do not provide enough information to alter an organism's genome to either suppress or exhibit a phenotype. It is important to look at the phenotype-related genes in the context of the genome-scale network to understand how the genes interact with other genes in the organism. Identification of metabolic subsystems involved in the expression of the phenotype is one way of placing the phenotype-related genes in the context of the entire network. A metabolic system refers to a metabolic network subgraph; nodes are compounds and edges labels are the enzymes that catalyze the reaction. The metabolic subsystem could be part of a single metabolic pathway or span parts of multiple pathways. Arguably, comparative genome-scale metabolic network analysis is a promising strategy to identify these phenotype-related metabolic subsystems. Network Instance-Based Biased Subgraph Search (NIBBS) is a graph-theoretic method for genome-scale metabolic network comparative analysis that can identify metabolic systems that are statistically biased toward phenotype-expressing organismal networks. We set up experiments with target phenotypes like hydrogen production, TCA expression, and acid-tolerance. We show via extensive literature search that some of the resulting metabolic subsystems are indeed phenotype-related and formulate hypotheses for other systems in terms of their role in phenotype expression. NIBBS is also orders of magnitude faster than MULE, one of the most efficient maximal frequent subgraph mining algorithms that could be adjusted for this problem. Also, the set of phenotype-biased metabolic systems output by NIBBS comes very close to

  15. A novel fibrosis index comprising a non-cholesterol sterol accurately predicts HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Ydreborg, Magdalena; Lisovskaja, Vera; Lagging, Martin; Brehm Christensen, Peer; Langeland, Nina; Buhl, Mads Rauning; Pedersen, Court; Mørch, Kristine; Wejstål, Rune; Norkrans, Gunnar; Lindh, Magnus; Färkkilä, Martti; Westin, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI) in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis) = -12.17+ (age × 0.11) + (BMI (kg/m(2)) × 0.23) + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol)×(-0.013)) + (Platelet count (x10(9)/L) × (-0.018)) + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96). The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98). In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

  16. Predicting Antimicrobial Resistance Prevalence and Incidence from Indicators of Antimicrobial Use: What Is the Most Accurate Indicator for Surveillance in Intensive Care Units?

    PubMed Central

    Fortin, Élise; Platt, Robert W.; Fontela, Patricia S.; Buckeridge, David L.; Quach, Caroline

    2015-01-01

    Objective The optimal way to measure antimicrobial use in hospital populations, as a complement to surveillance of resistance is still unclear. Using respiratory isolates and antimicrobial prescriptions of nine intensive care units (ICUs), this study aimed to identify the indicator of antimicrobial use that predicted prevalence and incidence rates of resistance with the best accuracy. Methods Retrospective cohort study including all patients admitted to three neonatal (NICU), two pediatric (PICU) and four adult ICUs between April 2006 and March 2010. Ten different resistance / antimicrobial use combinations were studied. After adjustment for ICU type, indicators of antimicrobial use were successively tested in regression models, to predict resistance prevalence and incidence rates, per 4-week time period, per ICU. Binomial regression and Poisson regression were used to model prevalence and incidence rates, respectively. Multiplicative and additive models were tested, as well as no time lag and a one 4-week-period time lag. For each model, the mean absolute error (MAE) in prediction of resistance was computed. The most accurate indicator was compared to other indicators using t-tests. Results Results for all indicators were equivalent, except for 1/20 scenarios studied. In this scenario, where prevalence of carbapenem-resistant Pseudomonas sp. was predicted with carbapenem use, recommended daily doses per 100 admissions were less accurate than courses per 100 patient-days (p = 0.0006). Conclusions A single best indicator to predict antimicrobial resistance might not exist. Feasibility considerations such as ease of computation or potential external comparisons could be decisive in the choice of an indicator for surveillance of healthcare antimicrobial use. PMID:26710322

  17. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-02-24

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

  18. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-01-01

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car. PMID:26927108

  19. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-01-01

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car. PMID:26927108

  20. Accurate electrical prediction of memory array through SEM-based edge-contour extraction using SPICE simulation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shauly, Eitan; Rotstein, Israel; Peltinov, Ram; Latinski, Sergei; Adan, Ofer; Levi, Shimon; Menadeva, Ovadya

    2009-03-01

    The continues transistors scaling efforts, for smaller devices, similar (or larger) drive current/um and faster devices, increase the challenge to predict and to control the transistor off-state current. Typically, electrical simulators like SPICE, are using the design intent (as-drawn GDS data). At more sophisticated cases, the simulators are fed with the pattern after lithography and etch process simulations. As the importance of electrical simulation accuracy is increasing and leakage is becoming more dominant, there is a need to feed these simulators, with more accurate information extracted from physical on-silicon transistors. Our methodology to predict changes in device performances due to systematic lithography and etch effects was used in this paper. In general, the methodology consists on using the OPCCmaxTM for systematic Edge-Contour-Extraction (ECE) from transistors, taking along the manufacturing and includes any image distortions like line-end shortening, corner rounding and line-edge roughness. These measurements are used for SPICE modeling. Possible application of this new metrology is to provide a-head of time, physical and electrical statistical data improving time to market. In this work, we applied our methodology to analyze a small and large array's of 2.14um2 6T-SRAM, manufactured using Tower Standard Logic for General Purposes Platform. 4 out of the 6 transistors used "U-Shape AA", known to have higher variability. The predicted electrical performances of the transistors drive current and leakage current, in terms of nominal values and variability are presented. We also used the methodology to analyze an entire SRAM Block array. Study of an isolation leakage and variability are presented.

  1. Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

    PubMed

    Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

    2015-01-01

    Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing

  2. Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

    1996-01-01

    The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

  3. Recent Results on the Accurate Measurements of the Dielectric Constant of Seawater at 1.413GHZ

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lang, R.H.; Tarkocin, Y.; Utku, C.; Le Vine, D.M.

    2008-01-01

    Measurements of the complex. dielectric constant of seawater at 30.00 psu, 35.00 psu and 38.27 psu over the temperature range from 5 C to 3 5 at 1.413 GHz are given and compared with the Klein-Swift results. A resonant cavity technique is used. The calibration constant used in the cavity perturbation formulas is determined experimentally using methanol and ethanediol (ethylene glycol) as reference liquids. Analysis of the data shows that the measurements are accurate to better than 1.0% in almost all cases studied.

  4. Numerical prediction of freezing fronts in cryosurgery: comparison with experimental results.

    PubMed

    Fortin, André; Belhamadia, Youssef

    2005-08-01

    Recent developments in scientific computing now allow to consider realistic applications of numerical modelling to medicine. In this work, a numerical method is presented for the simulation of phase change occurring in cryosurgery applications. The ultimate goal of these simulations is to accurately predict the freezing front position and the thermal history inside the ice ball which is essential to determine if cancerous cells have been completely destroyed. A semi-phase field formulation including blood flow considerations is employed for the simulations. Numerical results are enhanced by the introduction of an anisotropic remeshing strategy. The numerical procedure is validated by comparing the predictions of the model with experimental results. PMID:16298846

  5. Computational finite element bone mechanics accurately predicts mechanical competence in the human radius of an elderly population.

    PubMed

    Mueller, Thomas L; Christen, David; Sandercott, Steve; Boyd, Steven K; van Rietbergen, Bert; Eckstein, Felix; Lochmüller, Eva-Maria; Müller, Ralph; van Lenthe, G Harry

    2011-06-01

    High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HR-pQCT) is clinically available today and provides a non-invasive measure of 3D bone geometry and micro-architecture with unprecedented detail. In combination with microarchitectural finite element (μFE) models it can be used to determine bone strength using a strain-based failure criterion. Yet, images from only a relatively small part of the radius are acquired and it is not known whether the region recommended for clinical measurements does predict forearm fracture load best. Furthermore, it is questionable whether the currently used failure criterion is optimal because of improvements in image resolution, changes in the clinically measured volume of interest, and because the failure criterion depends on the amount of bone present. Hence, we hypothesized that bone strength estimates would improve by measuring a region closer to the subchondral plate, and by defining a failure criterion that would be independent of the measured volume of interest. To answer our hypotheses, 20% of the distal forearm length from 100 cadaveric but intact human forearms was measured using HR-pQCT. μFE bone strength was analyzed for different subvolumes, as well as for the entire 20% of the distal radius length. Specifically, failure criteria were developed that provided accurate estimates of bone strength as assessed experimentally. It was shown that distal volumes were better in predicting bone strength than more proximal ones. Clinically speaking, this would argue to move the volume of interest for the HR-pQCT measurements even more distally than currently recommended by the manufacturer. Furthermore, new parameter settings using the strain-based failure criterion are presented providing better accuracy for bone strength estimates.

  6. Profile-QSAR: a novel meta-QSAR method that combines activities across the kinase family to accurately predict affinity, selectivity, and cellular activity.

    PubMed

    Martin, Eric; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Sullivan, David; Jansen, Johanna

    2011-08-22

    Profile-QSAR is a novel 2D predictive model building method for kinases. This "meta-QSAR" method models the activity of each compound against a new kinase target as a linear combination of its predicted activities against a large panel of 92 previously studied kinases comprised from 115 assays. Profile-QSAR starts with a sparse incomplete kinase by compound (KxC) activity matrix, used to generate Bayesian QSAR models for the 92 "basis-set" kinases. These Bayesian QSARs generate a complete "synthetic" KxC activity matrix of predictions. These synthetic activities are used as "chemical descriptors" to train partial-least squares (PLS) models, from modest amounts of medium-throughput screening data, for predicting activity against new kinases. The Profile-QSAR predictions for the 92 kinases (115 assays) gave a median external R²(ext) = 0.59 on 25% held-out test sets. The method has proven accurate enough to predict pairwise kinase selectivities with a median correlation of R²(ext) = 0.61 for 958 kinase pairs with at least 600 common compounds. It has been further expanded by adding a "C(k)XC" cellular activity matrix to the KxC matrix to predict cellular activity for 42 kinase driven cellular assays with median R²(ext) = 0.58 for 24 target modulation assays and R²(ext) = 0.41 for 18 cell proliferation assays. The 2D Profile-QSAR, along with the 3D Surrogate AutoShim, are the foundations of an internally developed iterative medium-throughput screening (IMTS) methodology for virtual screening (VS) of compound archives as an alternative to experimental high-throughput screening (HTS). The method has been applied to 20 actual prospective kinase projects. Biological results have so far been obtained in eight of them. Q² values ranged from 0.3 to 0.7. Hit-rates at 10 uM for experimentally tested compounds varied from 25% to 80%, except in K5, which was a special case aimed specifically at finding "type II" binders, where none of the compounds were predicted to be

  7. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  8. Predictive aging results for cable materials in nuclear power plants

    SciTech Connect

    Gillen, K.T.; Clough, R.L.

    1990-11-01

    In this report, we provide a detailed discussion of methodology of predicting cable degradation versus dose rate, temperature, and exposure time and its application to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicon rubber and two ethylenetetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7 to 9 years), low dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under nuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following generic'' materials: hypalon, ethylenetetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such generic'' behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated. Finally, to aid utilities in their cable life extension decisions, we utilize our modelling results to generate lifetime prediction curves for the materials modelled to data. These curves plot expected material lifetime versus dose rate and temperature down to the levels of interest to nuclear power plant aging. 18 refs., 30 figs., 3 tabs.

  9. An Optimized Method for Accurate Fetal Sex Prediction and Sex Chromosome Aneuploidy Detection in Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ting; He, Quanze; Li, Haibo; Ding, Jie; Wen, Ping; Zhang, Qin; Xiang, Jingjing; Li, Qiong; Xuan, Liming; Kong, Lingyin; Mao, Yan; Zhu, Yijun; Shen, Jingjing; Liang, Bo; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) combined with bioinformatic analysis has been widely applied to detect fetal chromosomal aneuploidies such as trisomy 21, 18, 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) by sequencing cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) from maternal plasma, so-called non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). However, many technical challenges, such as dependency on correct fetal sex prediction, large variations of chromosome Y measurement and high sensitivity to random reads mapping, may result in higher false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR) in fetal sex prediction as well as in SCAs detection. Here, we developed an optimized method to improve the accuracy of the current method by filtering out randomly mapped reads in six specific regions of the Y chromosome. The method reduces the FNR and FPR of fetal sex prediction from nearly 1% to 0.01% and 0.06%, respectively and works robustly under conditions of low fetal DNA concentration (1%) in testing and simulation of 92 samples. The optimized method was further confirmed by large scale testing (1590 samples), suggesting that it is reliable and robust enough for clinical testing.

  10. Coronary Computed Tomographic Angiography Does Not Accurately Predict the Need of Coronary Revascularization in Patients with Stable Angina

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Sung-Jin; Her, Ae-Young; Suh, Yongsung; Won, Hoyoun; Cho, Deok-Kyu; Cho, Yun-Hyeong; Yoon, Young-Won; Lee, Kyounghoon; Kang, Woong Chol; Kim, Yong Hoon; Kim, Sang-Wook; Shin, Dong-Ho; Kim, Jung-Sun; Kim, Byeong-Keuk; Ko, Young-Guk; Choi, Byoung-Wook; Choi, Donghoon; Jang, Yangsoo

    2016-01-01

    Purpose To evaluate the ability of coronary computed tomographic angiography (CCTA) to predict the need of coronary revascularization in symptomatic patients with stable angina who were referred to a cardiac catheterization laboratory for coronary revascularization. Materials and Methods Pre-angiography CCTA findings were analyzed in 1846 consecutive symptomatic patients with stable angina, who were referred to a cardiac catheterization laboratory at six hospitals and were potential candidates for coronary revascularization between July 2011 and December 2013. The number of patients requiring revascularization was determined based on the severity of coronary stenosis as assessed by CCTA. This was compared to the actual number of revascularization procedures performed in the cardiac catheterization laboratory. Results Based on CCTA findings, coronary revascularization was indicated in 877 (48%) and not indicated in 969 (52%) patients. Of the 877 patients indicated for revascularization by CCTA, only 600 (68%) underwent the procedure, whereas 285 (29%) of the 969 patients not indicated for revascularization, as assessed by CCTA, underwent the procedure. When the coronary arteries were divided into 15 segments using the American Heart Association coronary tree model, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of CCTA for therapeutic decision making on a per-segment analysis were 42%, 96%, 40%, and 96%, respectively. Conclusion CCTA-based assessment of coronary stenosis severity does not sufficiently differentiate between coronary segments requiring revascularization versus those not requiring revascularization. Conventional coronary angiography should be considered to determine the need of revascularization in symptomatic patients with stable angina. PMID:27401637

  11. An Optimized Method for Accurate Fetal Sex Prediction and Sex Chromosome Aneuploidy Detection in Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing.

    PubMed

    Wang, Ting; He, Quanze; Li, Haibo; Ding, Jie; Wen, Ping; Zhang, Qin; Xiang, Jingjing; Li, Qiong; Xuan, Liming; Kong, Lingyin; Mao, Yan; Zhu, Yijun; Shen, Jingjing; Liang, Bo; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) combined with bioinformatic analysis has been widely applied to detect fetal chromosomal aneuploidies such as trisomy 21, 18, 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) by sequencing cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) from maternal plasma, so-called non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). However, many technical challenges, such as dependency on correct fetal sex prediction, large variations of chromosome Y measurement and high sensitivity to random reads mapping, may result in higher false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR) in fetal sex prediction as well as in SCAs detection. Here, we developed an optimized method to improve the accuracy of the current method by filtering out randomly mapped reads in six specific regions of the Y chromosome. The method reduces the FNR and FPR of fetal sex prediction from nearly 1% to 0.01% and 0.06%, respectively and works robustly under conditions of low fetal DNA concentration (1%) in testing and simulation of 92 samples. The optimized method was further confirmed by large scale testing (1590 samples), suggesting that it is reliable and robust enough for clinical testing. PMID:27441628

  12. An Optimized Method for Accurate Fetal Sex Prediction and Sex Chromosome Aneuploidy Detection in Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing

    PubMed Central

    Li, Haibo; Ding, Jie; Wen, Ping; Zhang, Qin; Xiang, Jingjing; Li, Qiong; Xuan, Liming; Kong, Lingyin; Mao, Yan; Zhu, Yijun; Shen, Jingjing; Liang, Bo; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) combined with bioinformatic analysis has been widely applied to detect fetal chromosomal aneuploidies such as trisomy 21, 18, 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) by sequencing cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) from maternal plasma, so-called non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). However, many technical challenges, such as dependency on correct fetal sex prediction, large variations of chromosome Y measurement and high sensitivity to random reads mapping, may result in higher false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR) in fetal sex prediction as well as in SCAs detection. Here, we developed an optimized method to improve the accuracy of the current method by filtering out randomly mapped reads in six specific regions of the Y chromosome. The method reduces the FNR and FPR of fetal sex prediction from nearly 1% to 0.01% and 0.06%, respectively and works robustly under conditions of low fetal DNA concentration (1%) in testing and simulation of 92 samples. The optimized method was further confirmed by large scale testing (1590 samples), suggesting that it is reliable and robust enough for clinical testing. PMID:27441628

  13. Unprecedently Large-Scale Kinase Inhibitor Set Enabling the Accurate Prediction of Compound-Kinase Activities: A Way toward Selective Promiscuity by Design?

    PubMed

    Christmann-Franck, Serge; van Westen, Gerard J P; Papadatos, George; Beltran Escudie, Fanny; Roberts, Alexander; Overington, John P; Domine, Daniel

    2016-09-26

    Drug discovery programs frequently target members of the human kinome and try to identify small molecule protein kinase inhibitors, primarily for cancer treatment, additional indications being increasingly investigated. One of the challenges is controlling the inhibitors degree of selectivity, assessed by in vitro profiling against panels of protein kinases. We manually extracted, compiled, and standardized such profiles published in the literature: we collected 356 908 data points corresponding to 482 protein kinases, 2106 inhibitors, and 661 patents. We then analyzed this data set in terms of kinome coverage, results reproducibility, popularity, and degree of selectivity of both kinases and inhibitors. We used the data set to create robust proteochemometric models capable of predicting kinase activity (the ligand-target space was modeled with an externally validated RMSE of 0.41 ± 0.02 log units and R02 0.74 ± 0.03), in order to account for missing or unreliable measurements. The influence on the prediction quality of parameters such as number of measurements, Murcko scaffold frequency or inhibitor type was assessed. Interpretation of the models enabled to highlight inhibitors and kinases properties correlated with higher affinities, and an analysis in the context of kinases crystal structures was performed. Overall, the models quality allows the accurate prediction of kinase-inhibitor activities and their structural interpretation, thus paving the way for the rational design of compounds with a targeted selectivity profile.

  14. Unprecedently Large-Scale Kinase Inhibitor Set Enabling the Accurate Prediction of Compound–Kinase Activities: A Way toward Selective Promiscuity by Design?

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Drug discovery programs frequently target members of the human kinome and try to identify small molecule protein kinase inhibitors, primarily for cancer treatment, additional indications being increasingly investigated. One of the challenges is controlling the inhibitors degree of selectivity, assessed by in vitro profiling against panels of protein kinases. We manually extracted, compiled, and standardized such profiles published in the literature: we collected 356 908 data points corresponding to 482 protein kinases, 2106 inhibitors, and 661 patents. We then analyzed this data set in terms of kinome coverage, results reproducibility, popularity, and degree of selectivity of both kinases and inhibitors. We used the data set to create robust proteochemometric models capable of predicting kinase activity (the ligand–target space was modeled with an externally validated RMSE of 0.41 ± 0.02 log units and R02 0.74 ± 0.03), in order to account for missing or unreliable measurements. The influence on the prediction quality of parameters such as number of measurements, Murcko scaffold frequency or inhibitor type was assessed. Interpretation of the models enabled to highlight inhibitors and kinases properties correlated with higher affinities, and an analysis in the context of kinases crystal structures was performed. Overall, the models quality allows the accurate prediction of kinase-inhibitor activities and their structural interpretation, thus paving the way for the rational design of compounds with a targeted selectivity profile. PMID:27482722

  15. Unprecedently Large-Scale Kinase Inhibitor Set Enabling the Accurate Prediction of Compound-Kinase Activities: A Way toward Selective Promiscuity by Design?

    PubMed

    Christmann-Franck, Serge; van Westen, Gerard J P; Papadatos, George; Beltran Escudie, Fanny; Roberts, Alexander; Overington, John P; Domine, Daniel

    2016-09-26

    Drug discovery programs frequently target members of the human kinome and try to identify small molecule protein kinase inhibitors, primarily for cancer treatment, additional indications being increasingly investigated. One of the challenges is controlling the inhibitors degree of selectivity, assessed by in vitro profiling against panels of protein kinases. We manually extracted, compiled, and standardized such profiles published in the literature: we collected 356 908 data points corresponding to 482 protein kinases, 2106 inhibitors, and 661 patents. We then analyzed this data set in terms of kinome coverage, results reproducibility, popularity, and degree of selectivity of both kinases and inhibitors. We used the data set to create robust proteochemometric models capable of predicting kinase activity (the ligand-target space was modeled with an externally validated RMSE of 0.41 ± 0.02 log units and R02 0.74 ± 0.03), in order to account for missing or unreliable measurements. The influence on the prediction quality of parameters such as number of measurements, Murcko scaffold frequency or inhibitor type was assessed. Interpretation of the models enabled to highlight inhibitors and kinases properties correlated with higher affinities, and an analysis in the context of kinases crystal structures was performed. Overall, the models quality allows the accurate prediction of kinase-inhibitor activities and their structural interpretation, thus paving the way for the rational design of compounds with a targeted selectivity profile. PMID:27482722

  16. Visual Mapping of Sedimentary Facies Can Yield Accurate And Geomorphically Meaningful Results at Morphological Unit to River Segment Scales

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pasternack, G. B.; Wyrick, J. R.; Jackson, J. R.

    2014-12-01

    Long practiced in fisheries, visual substrate mapping of coarse-bedded rivers is eschewed by geomorphologists for inaccuracy and limited sizing data. Geomorphologists perform time-consuming measurements of surficial grains, with the few locations precluding spatially explicit mapping and analysis of sediment facies. Remote sensing works for bare land, but not vegetated or subaqueous sediments. As visual systems apply the log2 Wentworth scale made for sieving, they suffer from human inability to readily discern those classes. We hypothesized that size classes centered on the PDF of the anticipated sediment size distribution would enable field crews to accurately (i) identify presence/absence of each class in a facies patch and (ii) estimate the relative amount of each class to within 10%. We first tested 6 people using 14 measured samples with different mixtures. Next, we carried out facies mapping for ~ 37 km of the lower Yuba River in California. Finally, we tested the resulting data to see if it produced statistically significant hydraulic-sedimentary-geomorphic results. Presence/absence performance error was 0-4% for four people, 13% for one person, and 33% for one person. The last person was excluded from further effort. For the abundance estimation performance error was 1% for one person, 7-12% for three people, and 33% for one person. This last person was further trained and re-tested. We found that the samples easiest to visually quantify were unimodal and bimodal, while those most difficult had nearly equal amounts of each size. This confirms psychological studies showing that humans have a more difficult time quantifying abundances of subgroups when confronted with well-mixed groups. In the Yuba, mean grain size decreased downstream, as is typical for an alluvial river. When averaged by reach, mean grain size and bed slope were correlated with an r2 of 0.95. At the morphological unit (MU) scale, eight in-channel bed MU types had an r2 of 0.90 between mean

  17. aPPRove: An HMM-Based Method for Accurate Prediction of RNA-Pentatricopeptide Repeat Protein Binding Events.

    PubMed

    Harrison, Thomas; Ruiz, Jaime; Sloan, Daniel B; Ben-Hur, Asa; Boucher, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Pentatricopeptide repeat containing proteins (PPRs) bind to RNA transcripts originating from mitochondria and plastids. There are two classes of PPR proteins. The [Formula: see text] class contains tandem [Formula: see text]-type motif sequences, and the [Formula: see text] class contains alternating [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] type sequences. In this paper, we describe a novel tool that predicts PPR-RNA interaction; specifically, our method, which we call aPPRove, determines where and how a [Formula: see text]-class PPR protein will bind to RNA when given a PPR and one or more RNA transcripts by using a combinatorial binding code for site specificity proposed by Barkan et al. Our results demonstrate that aPPRove successfully locates how and where a PPR protein belonging to the [Formula: see text] class can bind to RNA. For each binding event it outputs the binding site, the amino-acid-nucleotide interaction, and its statistical significance. Furthermore, we show that our method can be used to predict binding events for [Formula: see text]-class proteins using a known edit site and the statistical significance of aligning the PPR protein to that site. In particular, we use our method to make a conjecture regarding an interaction between CLB19 and the second intronic region of ycf3. The aPPRove web server can be found at www.cs.colostate.edu/~approve. PMID:27560805

  18. aPPRove: An HMM-Based Method for Accurate Prediction of RNA-Pentatricopeptide Repeat Protein Binding Events

    PubMed Central

    Harrison, Thomas; Ruiz, Jaime; Sloan, Daniel B.; Ben-Hur, Asa; Boucher, Christina

    2016-01-01

    Pentatricopeptide repeat containing proteins (PPRs) bind to RNA transcripts originating from mitochondria and plastids. There are two classes of PPR proteins. The P class contains tandem P-type motif sequences, and the PLS class contains alternating P, L and S type sequences. In this paper, we describe a novel tool that predicts PPR-RNA interaction; specifically, our method, which we call aPPRove, determines where and how a PLS-class PPR protein will bind to RNA when given a PPR and one or more RNA transcripts by using a combinatorial binding code for site specificity proposed by Barkan et al. Our results demonstrate that aPPRove successfully locates how and where a PPR protein belonging to the PLS class can bind to RNA. For each binding event it outputs the binding site, the amino-acid-nucleotide interaction, and its statistical significance. Furthermore, we show that our method can be used to predict binding events for PLS-class proteins using a known edit site and the statistical significance of aligning the PPR protein to that site. In particular, we use our method to make a conjecture regarding an interaction between CLB19 and the second intronic region of ycf3. The aPPRove web server can be found at www.cs.colostate.edu/~approve. PMID:27560805

  19. PredictSNP2: A Unified Platform for Accurately Evaluating SNP Effects by Exploiting the Different Characteristics of Variants in Distinct Genomic Regions.

    PubMed

    Bendl, Jaroslav; Musil, Miloš; Štourač, Jan; Zendulka, Jaroslav; Damborský, Jiří; Brezovský, Jan

    2016-05-01

    An important message taken from human genome sequencing projects is that the human population exhibits approximately 99.9% genetic similarity. Variations in the remaining parts of the genome determine our identity, trace our history and reveal our heritage. The precise delineation of phenotypically causal variants plays a key role in providing accurate personalized diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of inherited diseases. Several computational methods for achieving such delineation have been reported recently. However, their ability to pinpoint potentially deleterious variants is limited by the fact that their mechanisms of prediction do not account for the existence of different categories of variants. Consequently, their output is biased towards the variant categories that are most strongly represented in the variant databases. Moreover, most such methods provide numeric scores but not binary predictions of the deleteriousness of variants or confidence scores that would be more easily understood by users. We have constructed three datasets covering different types of disease-related variants, which were divided across five categories: (i) regulatory, (ii) splicing, (iii) missense, (iv) synonymous, and (v) nonsense variants. These datasets were used to develop category-optimal decision thresholds and to evaluate six tools for variant prioritization: CADD, DANN, FATHMM, FitCons, FunSeq2 and GWAVA. This evaluation revealed some important advantages of the category-based approach. The results obtained with the five best-performing tools were then combined into a consensus score. Additional comparative analyses showed that in the case of missense variations, protein-based predictors perform better than DNA sequence-based predictors. A user-friendly web interface was developed that provides easy access to the five tools' predictions, and their consensus scores, in a user-understandable format tailored to the specific features of different categories of variations. To

  20. PredictSNP2: A Unified Platform for Accurately Evaluating SNP Effects by Exploiting the Different Characteristics of Variants in Distinct Genomic Regions

    PubMed Central

    Brezovský, Jan

    2016-01-01

    An important message taken from human genome sequencing projects is that the human population exhibits approximately 99.9% genetic similarity. Variations in the remaining parts of the genome determine our identity, trace our history and reveal our heritage. The precise delineation of phenotypically causal variants plays a key role in providing accurate personalized diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of inherited diseases. Several computational methods for achieving such delineation have been reported recently. However, their ability to pinpoint potentially deleterious variants is limited by the fact that their mechanisms of prediction do not account for the existence of different categories of variants. Consequently, their output is biased towards the variant categories that are most strongly represented in the variant databases. Moreover, most such methods provide numeric scores but not binary predictions of the deleteriousness of variants or confidence scores that would be more easily understood by users. We have constructed three datasets covering different types of disease-related variants, which were divided across five categories: (i) regulatory, (ii) splicing, (iii) missense, (iv) synonymous, and (v) nonsense variants. These datasets were used to develop category-optimal decision thresholds and to evaluate six tools for variant prioritization: CADD, DANN, FATHMM, FitCons, FunSeq2 and GWAVA. This evaluation revealed some important advantages of the category-based approach. The results obtained with the five best-performing tools were then combined into a consensus score. Additional comparative analyses showed that in the case of missense variations, protein-based predictors perform better than DNA sequence-based predictors. A user-friendly web interface was developed that provides easy access to the five tools’ predictions, and their consensus scores, in a user-understandable format tailored to the specific features of different categories of variations

  1. Absolute Measurements of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and Interleukin-1-β mRNA Levels Accurately Predict Treatment Response in Depressed Patients

    PubMed Central

    Ferrari, Clarissa; Uher, Rudolf; Bocchio-Chiavetto, Luisella; Riva, Marco Andrea; Pariante, Carmine M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Increased levels of inflammation have been associated with a poorer response to antidepressants in several clinical samples, but these findings have had been limited by low reproducibility of biomarker assays across laboratories, difficulty in predicting response probability on an individual basis, and unclear molecular mechanisms. Methods: Here we measured absolute mRNA values (a reliable quantitation of number of molecules) of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and interleukin-1β in a previously published sample from a randomized controlled trial comparing escitalopram vs nortriptyline (GENDEP) as well as in an independent, naturalistic replication sample. We then used linear discriminant analysis to calculate mRNA values cutoffs that best discriminated between responders and nonresponders after 12 weeks of antidepressants. As Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and interleukin-1β might be involved in different pathways, we constructed a protein-protein interaction network by the Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes/Proteins. Results: We identified cutoff values for the absolute mRNA measures that accurately predicted response probability on an individual basis, with positive predictive values and specificity for nonresponders of 100% in both samples (negative predictive value=82% to 85%, sensitivity=52% to 61%). Using network analysis, we identified different clusters of targets for these 2 cytokines, with Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor interacting predominantly with pathways involved in neurogenesis, neuroplasticity, and cell proliferation, and interleukin-1β interacting predominantly with pathways involved in the inflammasome complex, oxidative stress, and neurodegeneration. Conclusion: We believe that these data provide a clinically suitable approach to the personalization of antidepressant therapy: patients who have absolute mRNA values above the suggested cutoffs could be directed toward earlier access to more

  2. Can Community Health Workers Report Accurately on Births and Deaths? Results of Field Assessments in Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali

    PubMed Central

    Silva, Romesh; Amouzou, Agbessi; Munos, Melinda; Marsh, Andrew; Hazel, Elizabeth; Victora, Cesar; Black, Robert; Bryce, Jennifer

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Most low-income countries lack complete and accurate vital registration systems. As a result, measures of under-five mortality rates rely mostly on household surveys. In collaboration with partners in Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, and Mali, we assessed the completeness and accuracy of reporting of births and deaths by community-based health workers, and the accuracy of annualized under-five mortality rate estimates derived from these data. Here we report on results from Ethiopia, Malawi and Mali. Method In all three countries, community health workers (CHWs) were trained, equipped and supported to report pregnancies, births and deaths within defined geographic areas over a period of at least fifteen months. In-country institutions collected these data every month. At each study site, we administered a full birth history (FBH) or full pregnancy history (FPH), to women of reproductive age via a census of households in Mali and via household surveys in Ethiopia and Malawi. Using these FBHs/FPHs as a validation data source, we assessed the completeness of the counts of births and deaths and the accuracy of under-five, infant, and neonatal mortality rates from the community-based method against the retrospective FBH/FPH for rolling twelve-month periods. For each method we calculated total cost, average annual cost per 1,000 population, and average cost per vital event reported. Results On average, CHWs submitted monthly vital event reports for over 95 percent of catchment areas in Ethiopia and Malawi, and for 100 percent of catchment areas in Mali. The completeness of vital events reporting by CHWs varied: we estimated that 30%-90% of annualized expected births (i.e. the number of births estimated using a FPH) were documented by CHWs and 22%-91% of annualized expected under-five deaths were documented by CHWs. Resulting annualized under-five mortality rates based on the CHW vital events reporting were, on average, under-estimated by 28% in Ethiopia, 32% in

  3. Accurate prediction of secreted substrates and identification of a conserved putative secretion signal for type III secretion systems

    SciTech Connect

    Samudrala, Ram; Heffron, Fred; McDermott, Jason E.

    2009-04-24

    The type III secretion system is an essential component for virulence in many Gram-negative bacteria. Though components of the secretion system apparatus are conserved, its substrates, effector proteins, are not. We have used a machine learning approach to identify new secreted effectors. The method integrates evolutionary measures, such as the pattern of homologs in a range of other organisms, and sequence-based features, such as G+C content, amino acid composition and the N-terminal 30 residues of the protein sequence. The method was trained on known effectors from Salmonella typhimurium and validated on a corresponding set of effectors from Pseudomonas syringae, after eliminating effectors with detectable sequence similarity. The method was able to identify all of the known effectors in P. syringae with a specificity of 84% and sensitivity of 82%. The reciprocal validation, training on P. syringae and validating on S. typhimurium, gave similar results with a specificity of 86% when the sensitivity level was 87%. These results show that type III effectors in disparate organisms share common features. We found that maximal performance is attained by including an N-terminal sequence of only 30 residues, which agrees with previous studies indicating that this region contains the secretion signal. We then used the method to define the most important residues in this putative secretion signal. Finally, we present novel predictions of secreted effectors in S. typhimurium, some of which have been experimentally validated, and apply the method to predict secreted effectors in the genetically intractable human pathogen Chlamydia trachomatis. This approach is a novel and effective way to identify secreted effectors in a broad range of pathogenic bacteria for further experimental characterization and provides insight into the nature of the type III secretion signal.

  4. Analyzing online sentiment to predict telephone poll results.

    PubMed

    Fu, King-wa; Chan, Chee-hon

    2013-09-01

    The telephone survey is a common social science research method for capturing public opinion, for example, an individual's values or attitudes, or the government's approval rating. However, reducing domestic landline usage, increasing nonresponse rate, and suffering from response bias of the interviewee's self-reported data pose methodological challenges to such an approach. Because of the labor cost of administration, a phone survey is often conducted on a biweekly or monthly basis, and therefore a daily reflection of public opinion is usually not available. Recently, online sentiment analysis of user-generated content has been deployed to predict public opinion and human behavior. However, its overall effectiveness remains uncertain. This study seeks to examine the temporal association between online sentiment reflected in social media content and phone survey poll results in Hong Kong. Specifically, it aims to find the extent to which online sentiment can predict phone survey results. Using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series analysis, this study suggested that online sentiment scores can lead phone survey results by about 8-15 days, and their correlation coefficients were about 0.16. The finding is significant to the study of social media in social science research, because it supports the conclusion that daily sentiment observed in social media content can serve as a leading predictor for phone survey results, keeping as much as 2 weeks ahead of the monthly announcement of opinion polls. We also discuss the practical and theoretical implications of this study.

  5. Automated antibody structure prediction using Accelrys tools: Results and best practices

    PubMed Central

    Fasnacht, Marc; Butenhof, Ken; Goupil-Lamy, Anne; Hernandez-Guzman, Francisco; Huang, Hongwei; Yan, Lisa

    2014-01-01

    We describe the methodology and results from our participation in the second Antibody Modeling Assessment experiment. During the experiment we predicted the structure of eleven unpublished antibody Fv fragments. Our prediction methods centered on template-based modeling; potential templates were selected from an antibody database based on their sequence similarity to the target in the framework regions. Depending on the quality of the templates, we constructed models of the antibody framework regions either using a single, chimeric or multiple template approach. The hypervariable loop regions in the initial models were rebuilt by grafting the corresponding regions from suitable templates onto the model. For the H3 loop region, we further refined models using ab initio methods. The final models were subjected to constrained energy minimization to resolve severe local structural problems. The analysis of the models submitted show that Accelrys tools allow for the construction of quite accurate models for the framework and the canonical CDR regions, with RMSDs to the X-ray structure on average below 1 Å for most of these regions. The results show that accurate prediction of the H3 hypervariable loops remains a challenge. Furthermore, model quality assessment of the submitted models show that the models are of quite high quality, with local geometry assessment scores similar to that of the target X-ray structures. Proteins 2014; 82:1583–1598. © 2014 The Authors. Proteins published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. PMID:24833271

  6. Automatic Earthquake Shear Stress Measurement Method Developed for Accurate Time- Prediction Analysis of Forthcoming Major Earthquakes Along Shallow Active Faults

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serata, S.

    2006-12-01

    The Serata Stressmeter has been developed to measure and monitor earthquake shear stress build-up along shallow active faults. The development work made in the past 25 years has established the Stressmeter as an automatic stress measurement system to study timing of forthcoming major earthquakes in support of the current earthquake prediction studies based on statistical analysis of seismological observations. In early 1982, a series of major Man-made earthquakes (magnitude 4.5-5.0) suddenly occurred in an area over deep underground potash mine in Saskatchewan, Canada. By measuring underground stress condition of the mine, the direct cause of the earthquake was disclosed. The cause was successfully eliminated by controlling the stress condition of the mine. The Japanese government was interested in this development and the Stressmeter was introduced to the Japanese government research program for earthquake stress studies. In Japan the Stressmeter was first utilized for direct measurement of the intrinsic lateral tectonic stress gradient G. The measurement, conducted at the Mt. Fuji Underground Research Center of the Japanese government, disclosed the constant natural gradients of maximum and minimum lateral stresses in an excellent agreement with the theoretical value, i.e., G = 0.25. All the conventional methods of overcoring, hydrofracturing and deformation, which were introduced to compete with the Serata method, failed demonstrating the fundamental difficulties of the conventional methods. The intrinsic lateral stress gradient determined by the Stressmeter for the Japanese government was found to be the same with all the other measurements made by the Stressmeter in Japan. The stress measurement results obtained by the major international stress measurement work in the Hot Dry Rock Projects conducted in USA, England and Germany are found to be in good agreement with the Stressmeter results obtained in Japan. Based on this broad agreement, a solid geomechanical

  7. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease accurately predicts 90-day liver transplant wait-list mortality in Atlantic Canada

    PubMed Central

    Renfrew, Paul Douglas; Quan, Hude; Doig, Christopher James; Dixon, Elijah; Molinari, Michele

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To determine the generalizability of the predictions for 90-day mortality generated by Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) and the serum sodium augmented MELD (MELDNa) to Atlantic Canadian adults with end-stage liver disease awaiting liver transplantation (LT). METHODS: The predictive accuracy of the MELD and the MELDNa was evaluated by measurement of the discrimination and calibration of the respective models’ estimates for the occurrence of 90-day mortality in a consecutive cohort of LT candidates accrued over a five-year period. Accuracy of discrimination was measured by the area under the ROC curves. Calibration accuracy was evaluated by comparing the observed and model-estimated incidences of 90-day wait-list failure for the total cohort and within quantiles of risk. RESULTS: The area under the ROC curve for the MELD was 0.887 (95% CI 0.705 to 0.978) – consistent with very good accuracy of discrimination. The area under the ROC curve for the MELDNa was 0.848 (95% CI 0.681 to 0.965). The observed incidence of 90-day wait-list mortality in the validation cohort was 7.9%, which was not significantly different from the MELD estimate of 6.6% (95% CI 4.9% to 8.4%; P=0.177) or the MELDNa estimate of 5.8% (95% CI 3.5% to 8.0%; P=0.065). Global goodness-of-fit testing found no evidence of significant lack of fit for either model (Hosmer-Lemeshow χ2 [df=3] for MELD 2.941, P=0.401; for MELDNa 2.895, P=0.414). CONCLUSION: Both the MELD and the MELDNa accurately predicted the occurrence of 90-day wait-list mortality in the study cohort and, therefore, are generalizable to Atlantic Canadians with end-stage liver disease awaiting LT. PMID:21876856

  8. The VACS Index Accurately Predicts Mortality and Treatment Response among Multi-Drug Resistant HIV Infected Patients Participating in the Options in Management with Antiretrovirals (OPTIMA) Study

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Sheldon T.; Tate, Janet P.; Kyriakides, Tassos C.; Kirkwood, Katherine A.; Holodniy, Mark; Goulet, Joseph L.; Angus, Brian J.; Cameron, D. William; Justice, Amy C.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The VACS Index is highly predictive of all-cause mortality among HIV infected individuals within the first few years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, its accuracy among highly treatment experienced individuals and its responsiveness to treatment interventions have yet to be evaluated. We compared the accuracy and responsiveness of the VACS Index with a Restricted Index of age and traditional HIV biomarkers among patients enrolled in the OPTIMA study. Methods Using data from 324/339 (96%) patients in OPTIMA, we evaluated associations between indices and mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimates, proportional hazards models, Harrel’s C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We also determined the association between study interventions and risk scores over time, and change in score and mortality. Results Both the Restricted Index (c = 0.70) and VACS Index (c = 0.74) predicted mortality from baseline, but discrimination was improved with the VACS Index (NRI = 23%). Change in score from baseline to 48 weeks was more strongly associated with survival for the VACS Index than the Restricted Index with respective hazard ratios of 0.26 (95% CI 0.14–0.49) and 0.39(95% CI 0.22–0.70) among the 25% most improved scores, and 2.08 (95% CI 1.27–3.38) and 1.51 (95%CI 0.90–2.53) for the 25% least improved scores. Conclusions The VACS Index predicts all-cause mortality more accurately among multi-drug resistant, treatment experienced individuals and is more responsive to changes in risk associated with treatment intervention than an index restricted to age and HIV biomarkers. The VACS Index holds promise as an intermediate outcome for intervention research. PMID:24667813

  9. Towards more accurate isoscapes encouraging results from wine, water and marijuana data/model and model/model comparisons.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    West, J. B.; Ehleringer, J. R.; Cerling, T.

    2006-12-01

    Understanding how the biosphere responds to change it at the heart of biogeochemistry, ecology, and other Earth sciences. The dramatic increase in human population and technological capacity over the past 200 years or so has resulted in numerous, simultaneous changes to biosphere structure and function. This, then, has lead to increased urgency in the scientific community to try to understand how systems have already responded to these changes, and how they might do so in the future. Since all biospheric processes exhibit some patchiness or patterns over space, as well as time, we believe that understanding the dynamic interactions between natural systems and human technological manipulations can be improved if these systems are studied in an explicitly spatial context. We present here results of some of our efforts to model the spatial variation in the stable isotope ratios (δ2H and δ18O) of plants over large spatial extents, and how these spatial model predictions compare to spatially explicit data. Stable isotopes trace and record ecological processes and as such, if modeled correctly over Earth's surface allow us insights into changes in biosphere states and processes across spatial scales. The data-model comparisons show good agreement, in spite of the remaining uncertainties (e.g., plant source water isotopic composition). For example, inter-annual changes in climate are recorded in wine stable isotope ratios. Also, a much simpler model of leaf water enrichment driven with spatially continuous global rasters of precipitation and climate normals largely agrees with complex GCM modeling that includes leaf water δ18O. Our results suggest that modeling plant stable isotope ratios across large spatial extents may be done with reasonable accuracy, including over time. These spatial maps, or isoscapes, can now be utilized to help understand spatially distributed data, as well as to help guide future studies designed to understand ecological change across

  10. Numerical predictions and experimental results of a dry bay fire environment.

    SciTech Connect

    Suo-Anttila, Jill Marie; Gill, Walter; Black, Amalia Rebecca

    2003-11-01

    The primary objective of the Safety and Survivability of Aircraft Initiative is to improve the safety and survivability of systems by using validated computational models to predict the hazard posed by a fire. To meet this need, computational model predictions and experimental data have been obtained to provide insight into the thermal environment inside an aircraft dry bay. The calculations were performed using the Vulcan fire code, and the experiments were completed using a specially designed full-scale fixture. The focus of this report is to present comparisons of the Vulcan results with experimental data for a selected test scenario and to assess the capability of the Vulcan fire field model to accurately predict dry bay fire scenarios. Also included is an assessment of the sensitivity of the fire model predictions to boundary condition distribution and grid resolution. To facilitate the comparison with experimental results, a brief description of the dry bay fire test fixture and a detailed specification of the geometry and boundary conditions are included. Overall, the Vulcan fire field model has shown the capability to predict the thermal hazard posed by a sustained pool fire within a dry bay compartment of an aircraft; although, more extensive experimental data and rigorous comparison are required for model validation.

  11. Toward Relatively General and Accurate Quantum Chemical Predictions of Solid-State 17O NMR Chemical Shifts in Various Biologically Relevant Oxygen-containing Compounds

    PubMed Central

    Rorick, Amber; Michael, Matthew A.; Yang, Liu; Zhang, Yong

    2015-01-01

    Oxygen is an important element in most biologically significant molecules and experimental solid-state 17O NMR studies have provided numerous useful structural probes to study these systems. However, computational predictions of solid-state 17O NMR chemical shift tensor properties are still challenging in many cases and in particular each of the prior computational work is basically limited to one type of oxygen-containing systems. This work provides the first systematic study of the effects of geometry refinement, method and basis sets for metal and non-metal elements in both geometry optimization and NMR property calculations of some biologically relevant oxygen-containing compounds with a good variety of XO bonding groups, X= H, C, N, P, and metal. The experimental range studied is of 1455 ppm, a major part of the reported 17O NMR chemical shifts in organic and organometallic compounds. A number of computational factors towards relatively general and accurate predictions of 17O NMR chemical shifts were studied to provide helpful and detailed suggestions for future work. For the studied various kinds of oxygen-containing compounds, the best computational approach results in a theory-versus-experiment correlation coefficient R2 of 0.9880 and mean absolute deviation of 13 ppm (1.9% of the experimental range) for isotropic NMR shifts and R2 of 0.9926 for all shift tensor properties. These results shall facilitate future computational studies of 17O NMR chemical shifts in many biologically relevant systems, and the high accuracy may also help refinement and determination of active-site structures of some oxygen-containing substrate bound proteins. PMID:26274812

  12. Toward Relatively General and Accurate Quantum Chemical Predictions of Solid-State (17)O NMR Chemical Shifts in Various Biologically Relevant Oxygen-Containing Compounds.

    PubMed

    Rorick, Amber; Michael, Matthew A; Yang, Liu; Zhang, Yong

    2015-09-01

    Oxygen is an important element in most biologically significant molecules, and experimental solid-state (17)O NMR studies have provided numerous useful structural probes to study these systems. However, computational predictions of solid-state (17)O NMR chemical shift tensor properties are still challenging in many cases, and in particular, each of the prior computational works is basically limited to one type of oxygen-containing system. This work provides the first systematic study of the effects of geometry refinement, method, and basis sets for metal and nonmetal elements in both geometry optimization and NMR property calculations of some biologically relevant oxygen-containing compounds with a good variety of XO bonding groups (X = H, C, N, P, and metal). The experimental range studied is of 1455 ppm, a major part of the reported (17)O NMR chemical shifts in organic and organometallic compounds. A number of computational factors toward relatively general and accurate predictions of (17)O NMR chemical shifts were studied to provide helpful and detailed suggestions for future work. For the studied kinds of oxygen-containing compounds, the best computational approach results in a theory-versus-experiment correlation coefficient (R(2)) value of 0.9880 and a mean absolute deviation of 13 ppm (1.9% of the experimental range) for isotropic NMR shifts and an R(2) value of 0.9926 for all shift-tensor properties. These results shall facilitate future computational studies of (17)O NMR chemical shifts in many biologically relevant systems, and the high accuracy may also help the refinement and determination of active-site structures of some oxygen-containing substrate-bound proteins.

  13. An evolutionary model-based algorithm for accurate phylogenetic breakpoint mapping and subtype prediction in HIV-1.

    PubMed

    Kosakovsky Pond, Sergei L; Posada, David; Stawiski, Eric; Chappey, Colombe; Poon, Art F Y; Hughes, Gareth; Fearnhill, Esther; Gravenor, Mike B; Leigh Brown, Andrew J; Frost, Simon D W

    2009-11-01

    Genetically diverse pathogens (such as Human Immunodeficiency virus type 1, HIV-1) are frequently stratified into phylogenetically or immunologically defined subtypes for classification purposes. Computational identification of such subtypes is helpful in surveillance, epidemiological analysis and detection of novel variants, e.g., circulating recombinant forms in HIV-1. A number of conceptually and technically different techniques have been proposed for determining the subtype of a query sequence, but there is not a universally optimal approach. We present a model-based phylogenetic method for automatically subtyping an HIV-1 (or other viral or bacterial) sequence, mapping the location of breakpoints and assigning parental sequences in recombinant strains as well as computing confidence levels for the inferred quantities. Our Subtype Classification Using Evolutionary ALgorithms (SCUEAL) procedure is shown to perform very well in a variety of simulation scenarios, runs in parallel when multiple sequences are being screened, and matches or exceeds the performance of existing approaches on typical empirical cases. We applied SCUEAL to all available polymerase (pol) sequences from two large databases, the Stanford Drug Resistance database and the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database. Comparing with subtypes which had previously been assigned revealed that a minor but substantial (approximately 5%) fraction of pure subtype sequences may in fact be within- or inter-subtype recombinants. A free implementation of SCUEAL is provided as a module for the HyPhy package and the Datamonkey web server. Our method is especially useful when an accurate automatic classification of an unknown strain is desired, and is positioned to complement and extend faster but less accurate methods. Given the increasingly frequent use of HIV subtype information in studies focusing on the effect of subtype on treatment, clinical outcome, pathogenicity and vaccine design, the importance of accurate

  14. Conformations of 1,2-dimethoxypropane and 5-methoxy-1,3-dioxane: are ab initio quantum chemistry predictions accurate?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Smith, Grant D.; Jaffe, Richard L.; Yoon, Do. Y.

    1998-06-01

    High-level ab initio quantum chemistry calculations are shown to predict conformer populations of 1,2-dimethoxypropane and 5-methoxy-1,3-dioxane that are consistent with gas-phase NMR vicinal coupling constant measurements. The conformational energies of the cyclic ether 5-methoxy-1,3-dioxane are found to be consistent with those predicted by a rotational isomeric state (RIS) model based upon the acyclic analog 1,2-dimethoxypropane. The quantum chemistry and RIS calculations indicate the presence of strong attractive 1,5 C(H 3)⋯O electrostatic interactions in these molecules, similar to those found in 1,2-dimethoxyethane.

  15. A Maximal Graded Exercise Test to Accurately Predict VO2max in 18-65-Year-Old Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, James D.; Bradshaw, Danielle I.; Hyde, Annette; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ronald L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an age-generalized regression model to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO sub 2 max) based on a maximal treadmill graded exercise test (GXT; George, 1996). Participants (N = 100), ages 18-65 years, reached a maximal level of exertion (mean plus or minus standard deviation [SD]; maximal heart rate [HR sub…

  16. Survival outcomes scores (SOFT, BAR, and Pedi-SOFT) are accurate in predicting post-liver transplant survival in adolescents.

    PubMed

    Conjeevaram Selvakumar, Praveen Kumar; Maksimak, Brian; Hanouneh, Ibrahim; Youssef, Dalia H; Lopez, Rocio; Alkhouri, Naim

    2016-09-01

    SOFT and BAR scores utilize recipient, donor, and graft factors to predict the 3-month survival after LT in adults (≥18 years). Recently, Pedi-SOFT score was developed to predict 3-month survival after LT in young children (≤12 years). These scoring systems have not been studied in adolescent patients (13-17 years). We evaluated the accuracy of these scoring systems in predicting the 3-month post-LT survival in adolescents through a retrospective analysis of data from UNOS of patients aged 13-17 years who received LT between 03/01/2002 and 12/31/2012. Recipients of combined organ transplants, donation after cardiac death, or living donor graft were excluded. A total of 711 adolescent LT recipients were included with a mean age of 15.2±1.4 years. A total of 100 patients died post-LT including 33 within 3 months. SOFT, BAR, and Pedi-SOFT scores were all found to be good predictors of 3-month post-transplant survival outcome with areas under the ROC curve of 0.81, 0.80, and 0.81, respectively. All three scores provided good accuracy for predicting 3-month survival post-LT in adolescents and may help clinical decision making to optimize survival rate and organ utilization. PMID:27478012

  17. Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset.

    PubMed

    Luo, Wei; Nguyen, Thin; Nichols, Melanie; Tran, Truyen; Rana, Santu; Gupta, Sunil; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha; Allender, Steve

    2015-01-01

    For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

  18. Deep vein thrombosis is accurately predicted by comprehensive analysis of the levels of microRNA-96 and plasma D-dimer

    PubMed Central

    Xie, Xuesheng; Liu, Changpeng; Lin, Wei; Zhan, Baoming; Dong, Changjun; Song, Zhen; Wang, Shilei; Qi, Yingguo; Wang, Jiali; Gu, Zengquan

    2016-01-01

    The aim of the present study was to investigate the association between platelet microRNA-96 (miR-96) expression levels and the occurrence of deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in orthopedic patients. A total of consecutive 69 orthopedic patients with DVT and 30 healthy individuals were enrolled. Ultrasonic color Doppler imaging was performed on lower limb veins after orthopedic surgery to determine the occurrence of DVT. An enzyme-linked fluorescent assay was performed to detect the levels of D-dimer in plasma. A quantitative polymerase chain reaction assay was performed to determine the expression levels of miR-96. Expression levels of platelet miR-96 were significantly increased in orthopedic patients after orthopedic surgery. miR-96 expression levels in orthopedic patients with DVT at days 1, 3 and 7 after orthopedic surgery were significantly increased when compared with those in the control group. The increased miR-96 expression levels were correlated with plasma D-dimer levels in orthopedic patients with DVT. However, for the orthopedic patients in the non-DVT group following surgery, miR-96 expression levels were correlated with plasma D-dimer levels. In summary, the present results suggest that the expression levels of miR-96 may be associated with the occurrence of DVT. The occurrence of DVT may be accurately predicted by comprehensive analysis of the levels of miR-96 and plasma D-dimer. PMID:27588107

  19. Accurate and efficient prediction of fine-resolution hydrologic and carbon dynamic simulations from coarse-resolution models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pau, George Shu Heng; Shen, Chaopeng; Riley, William J.; Liu, Yaning

    2016-02-01

    The topography, and the biotic and abiotic parameters are typically upscaled to make watershed-scale hydrologic-biogeochemical models computationally tractable. However, upscaling procedure can produce biases when nonlinear interactions between different processes are not fully captured at coarse resolutions. Here we applied the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Mapping Method (PODMM) to downscale the field solutions from a coarse (7 km) resolution grid to a fine (220 m) resolution grid. PODMM trains a reduced-order model (ROM) with coarse-resolution and fine-resolution solutions, here obtained using PAWS+CLM, a quasi-3-D watershed processes model that has been validated for many temperate watersheds. Subsequent fine-resolution solutions were approximated based only on coarse-resolution solutions and the ROM. The approximation errors were efficiently quantified using an error estimator. By jointly estimating correlated variables and temporally varying the ROM parameters, we further reduced the approximation errors by up to 20%. We also improved the method's robustness by constructing multiple ROMs using different set of variables, and selecting the best approximation based on the error estimator. The ROMs produced accurate downscaling of soil moisture, latent heat flux, and net primary production with O(1000) reduction in computational cost. The subgrid distributions were also nearly indistinguishable from the ones obtained using the fine-resolution model. Compared to coarse-resolution solutions, biases in upscaled ROM solutions were reduced by up to 80%. This method has the potential to help address the long-standing spatial scaling problem in hydrology and enable long-time integration, parameter estimation, and stochastic uncertainty analysis while accurately representing the heterogeneities.

  20. Prognostic models and risk scores: can we accurately predict postoperative nausea and vomiting in children after craniotomy?

    PubMed

    Neufeld, Susan M; Newburn-Cook, Christine V; Drummond, Jane E

    2008-10-01

    Postoperative nausea and vomiting (PONV) is a problem for many children after craniotomy. Prognostic models and risk scores help identify who is at risk for an adverse event such as PONV to help guide clinical care. The purpose of this article is to assess whether an existing prognostic model or risk score can predict PONV in children after craniotomy. The concepts of transportability, calibration, and discrimination are presented to identify what is required to have a valid tool for clinical use. Although previous work may inform clinical practice and guide future research, existing prognostic models and risk scores do not appear to be options for predicting PONV in children undergoing craniotomy. However, until risk factors are further delineated, followed by the development and validation of prognostic models and risk scores that include children after craniotomy, clinical judgment in the context of current research may serve as a guide for clinical care in this population. PMID:18939320

  1. LiF TLD-100 as a Dosimeter in High Energy Proton Beam Therapy-Can It Yield Accurate Results?

    SciTech Connect

    Zullo, John R. Kudchadker, Rajat J.; Zhu, X. Ronald; Sahoo, Narayan; Gillin, Michael T.

    2010-04-01

    In the region of high-dose gradients at the end of the proton range, the stopping power ratio of the protons undergoes significant changes, allowing for a broad spectrum of proton energies to be deposited within a relatively small volume. Because of the potential linear energy transfer dependence of LiF TLD-100 (thermolumescent dosimeter), dose measurements made in the distal fall-off region of a proton beam may be less accurate than those made in regions of low-dose gradients. The purpose of this study is to determine the accuracy and precision of dose measured using TLD-100 for a pristine Bragg peak, particularly in the distal fall-off region. All measurements were made along the central axis of an unmodulated 200-MeV proton beam from a Probeat passive beam-scattering proton accelerator (Hitachi, Ltd., Tokyo, Japan) at varying depths along the Bragg peak. Measurements were made using TLD-100 powder flat packs, placed in a virtual water slab phantom. The measurements were repeated using a parallel plate ionization chamber. The dose measurements using TLD-100 in a proton beam were accurate to within {+-}5.0% of the expected dose, previously seen in our past photon and electron measurements. The ionization chamber and the TLD relative dose measurements agreed well with each other. Absolute dose measurements using TLD agreed with ionization chamber measurements to within {+-} 3.0 cGy, for an exposure of 100 cGy. In our study, the differences in the dose measured by the ionization chamber and those measured by TLD-100 were minimal, indicating that the accuracy and precision of measurements made in the distal fall-off region of a pristine Bragg peak is within the expected range. Thus, the rapid change in stopping power ratios at the end of the range should not affect such measurements, and TLD-100 may be used with confidence as an in vivo dosimeter for proton beam therapy.

  2. A highly accurate protein structural class prediction approach using auto cross covariance transformation and recursive feature elimination.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaowei; Liu, Taigang; Tao, Peiying; Wang, Chunhua; Chen, Lanming

    2015-12-01

    Structural class characterizes the overall folding type of a protein or its domain. Many methods have been proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of protein structural class in recent years, but it is still a challenge for the low-similarity sequences. In this study, we introduce a feature extraction technique based on auto cross covariance (ACC) transformation of position-specific score matrix (PSSM) to represent a protein sequence. Then support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) is adopted to select top K features according to their importance and these features are input to a support vector machine (SVM) to conduct the prediction. Performance evaluation of the proposed method is performed using the jackknife test on three low-similarity datasets, i.e., D640, 1189 and 25PDB. By means of this method, the overall accuracies of 97.2%, 96.2%, and 93.3% are achieved on these three datasets, which are higher than those of most existing methods. This suggests that the proposed method could serve as a very cost-effective tool for predicting protein structural class especially for low-similarity datasets.

  3. A 3D-CFD code for accurate prediction of fluid flows and fluid forces in seals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Athavale, M. M.; Przekwas, A. J.; Hendricks, R. C.

    1994-01-01

    Current and future turbomachinery requires advanced seal configurations to control leakage, inhibit mixing of incompatible fluids and to control the rotodynamic response. In recognition of a deficiency in the existing predictive methodology for seals, a seven year effort was established in 1990 by NASA's Office of Aeronautics Exploration and Technology, under the Earth-to-Orbit Propulsion program, to develop validated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) concepts, codes and analyses for seals. The effort will provide NASA and the U.S. Aerospace Industry with advanced CFD scientific codes and industrial codes for analyzing and designing turbomachinery seals. An advanced 3D CFD cylindrical seal code has been developed, incorporating state-of-the-art computational methodology for flow analysis in straight, tapered and stepped seals. Relevant computational features of the code include: stationary/rotating coordinates, cylindrical and general Body Fitted Coordinates (BFC) systems, high order differencing schemes, colocated variable arrangement, advanced turbulence models, incompressible/compressible flows, and moving grids. This paper presents the current status of code development, code demonstration for predicting rotordynamic coefficients, numerical parametric study of entrance loss coefficients for generic annular seals, and plans for code extensions to labyrinth, damping, and other seal configurations.

  4. IrisPlex: a sensitive DNA tool for accurate prediction of blue and brown eye colour in the absence of ancestry information.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Susan; Liu, Fan; Ballantyne, Kaye N; van Oven, Mannis; Lao, Oscar; Kayser, Manfred

    2011-06-01

    A new era of 'DNA intelligence' is arriving in forensic biology, due to the impending ability to predict externally visible characteristics (EVCs) from biological material such as those found at crime scenes. EVC prediction from forensic samples, or from body parts, is expected to help concentrate police investigations towards finding unknown individuals, at times when conventional DNA profiling fails to provide informative leads. Here we present a robust and sensitive tool, termed IrisPlex, for the accurate prediction of blue and brown eye colour from DNA in future forensic applications. We used the six currently most eye colour-informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that previously revealed prevalence-adjusted prediction accuracies of over 90% for blue and brown eye colour in 6168 Dutch Europeans. The single multiplex assay, based on SNaPshot chemistry and capillary electrophoresis, both widely used in forensic laboratories, displays high levels of genotyping sensitivity with complete profiles generated from as little as 31pg of DNA, approximately six human diploid cell equivalents. We also present a prediction model to correctly classify an individual's eye colour, via probability estimation solely based on DNA data, and illustrate the accuracy of the developed prediction test on 40 individuals from various geographic origins. Moreover, we obtained insights into the worldwide allele distribution of these six SNPs using the HGDP-CEPH samples of 51 populations. Eye colour prediction analyses from HGDP-CEPH samples provide evidence that the test and model presented here perform reliably without prior ancestry information, although future worldwide genotype and phenotype data shall confirm this notion. As our IrisPlex eye colour prediction test is capable of immediate implementation in forensic casework, it represents one of the first steps forward in the creation of a fully individualised EVC prediction system for future use in forensic DNA intelligence.

  5. Accurate ab initio prediction of propagation rate coefficients in free-radical polymerization: Acrylonitrile and vinyl chloride

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Izgorodina, Ekaterina I.; Coote, Michelle L.

    2006-05-01

    A systematic methodology for calculating accurate propagation rate coefficients in free-radical polymerization was designed and tested for vinyl chloride and acrylonitrile polymerization. For small to medium-sized polymer systems, theoretical reaction barriers are calculated using G3(MP2)-RAD. For larger systems, G3(MP2)-RAD barriers can be approximated (to within 1 kJ mol -1) via an ONIOM-based approach in which the core is studied at G3(MP2)-RAD and the substituent effects are modeled with ROMP2/6-311+G(3df,2p). DFT methods (including BLYP, B3LYP, MPWB195, BB1K and MPWB1K) failed to reproduce the correct trends in the reaction barriers and enthalpies with molecular size, though KMLYP showed some promise as a low cost option for very large systems. Reaction rates are calculated via standard transition state theory in conjunction with the one-dimensional hindered rotor model. The harmonic oscillator approximation was shown to introduce an error of a factor of 2-3, and would be suitable for "order-of-magnitude" estimates. A systematic study of chain length effects indicated that rate coefficients had largely converged to their long chain limit at the dimer radical stage, and the inclusion of the primary substituent of the penultimate unit was sufficient for practical purposes. Solvent effects, as calculated using the COSMO model, were found to be relatively minor. The overall methodology reproduced the available experimental data for both of these monomers within a factor of 2.

  6. A novel, integrated PET-guided MRS technique resulting in more accurate initial diagnosis of high-grade glioma.

    PubMed

    Kim, Ellen S; Satter, Martin; Reed, Marilyn; Fadell, Ronald; Kardan, Arash

    2016-06-01

    Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most common and lethal malignant glioma in adults. Currently, the modality of choice for diagnosing brain tumor is high-resolution magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with contrast, which provides anatomic detail and localization. Studies have demonstrated, however, that MRI may have limited utility in delineating the full tumor extent precisely. Studies suggest that MR spectroscopy (MRS) can also be used to distinguish high-grade from low-grade gliomas. However, due to operator dependent variables and the heterogeneous nature of gliomas, the potential for error in diagnostic accuracy with MRS is a concern. Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging with (11)C-methionine (MET) and (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) has been shown to add additional information with respect to tumor grade, extent, and prognosis based on the premise of biochemical changes preceding anatomic changes. Combined PET/MRS is a technique that integrates information from PET in guiding the location for the most accurate metabolic characterization of a lesion via MRS. We describe a case of glioblastoma multiforme in which MRS was initially non-diagnostic for malignancy, but when MRS was repeated with PET guidance, demonstrated elevated choline/N-acetylaspartate (Cho/NAA) ratio in the right parietal mass consistent with a high-grade malignancy. Stereotactic biopsy, followed by PET image-guided resection, confirmed the diagnosis of grade IV GBM. To our knowledge, this is the first reported case of an integrated PET/MRS technique for the voxel placement of MRS. Our findings suggest that integrated PET/MRS may potentially improve diagnostic accuracy in high-grade gliomas.

  7. Predicting College Students' First Year Success: Should Soft Skills Be Taken into Consideration to More Accurately Predict the Academic Achievement of College Freshmen?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Erica Dion

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a survey developed to measure the skills of entering college freshmen in the areas of responsibility, motivation, study habits, literacy, and stress management, and explores the predictive power of this survey as a measure of academic performance during the first semester of college. The survey was completed by 334 incoming…

  8. Microdosing of a Carbon-14 Labeled Protein in Healthy Volunteers Accurately Predicts Its Pharmacokinetics at Therapeutic Dosages.

    PubMed

    Vlaming, M L H; van Duijn, E; Dillingh, M R; Brands, R; Windhorst, A D; Hendrikse, N H; Bosgra, S; Burggraaf, J; de Koning, M C; Fidder, A; Mocking, J A J; Sandman, H; de Ligt, R A F; Fabriek, B O; Pasman, W J; Seinen, W; Alves, T; Carrondo, M; Peixoto, C; Peeters, P A M; Vaes, W H J

    2015-08-01

    Preclinical development of new biological entities (NBEs), such as human protein therapeutics, requires considerable expenditure of time and costs. Poor prediction of pharmacokinetics in humans further reduces net efficiency. In this study, we show for the first time that pharmacokinetic data of NBEs in humans can be successfully obtained early in the drug development process by the use of microdosing in a small group of healthy subjects combined with ultrasensitive accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). After only minimal preclinical testing, we performed a first-in-human phase 0/phase 1 trial with a human recombinant therapeutic protein (RESCuing Alkaline Phosphatase, human recombinant placental alkaline phosphatase [hRESCAP]) to assess its safety and kinetics. Pharmacokinetic analysis showed dose linearity from microdose (53 μg) [(14) C]-hRESCAP to therapeutic doses (up to 5.3 mg) of the protein in healthy volunteers. This study demonstrates the value of a microdosing approach in a very small cohort for accelerating the clinical development of NBEs. PMID:25869840

  9. A new accurate ground-state potential energy surface of ethylene and predictions for rotational and vibrational energy levels

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Delahaye, Thibault; Nikitin, Andrei; Rey, Michaël; Szalay, Péter G.; Tyuterev, Vladimir G.

    2014-09-01

    In this paper we report a new ground state potential energy surface for ethylene (ethene) C2H4 obtained from extended ab initio calculations. The coupled-cluster approach with the perturbative inclusion of the connected triple excitations CCSD(T) and correlation consistent polarized valence basis set cc-pVQZ was employed for computations of electronic ground state energies. The fit of the surface included 82 542 nuclear configurations using sixth order expansion in curvilinear symmetry-adapted coordinates involving 2236 parameters. A good convergence for variationally computed vibrational levels of the C2H4 molecule was obtained with a RMS(Obs.-Calc.) deviation of 2.7 cm-1 for fundamental bands centers and 5.9 cm-1 for vibrational bands up to 7800 cm-1. Large scale vibrational and rotational calculations for 12C2H4, 13C2H4, and 12C2D4 isotopologues were performed using this new surface. Energy levels for J = 20 up to 6000 cm-1 are in a good agreement with observations. This represents a considerable improvement with respect to available global predictions of vibrational levels of 13C2H4 and 12C2D4 and rovibrational levels of 12C2H4.

  10. Additional correction for energy transfer efficiency calculation in filter-based Förster resonance energy transfer microscopy for more accurate results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Yuansheng; Periasamy, Ammasi

    2010-03-01

    Förster resonance energy transfer (FRET) microscopy is commonly used to monitor protein interactions with filter-based imaging systems, which require spectral bleedthrough (or cross talk) correction to accurately measure energy transfer efficiency (E). The double-label (donor+acceptor) specimen is excited with the donor wavelength, the acceptor emission provided the uncorrected FRET signal and the donor emission (the donor channel) represents the quenched donor (qD), the basis for the E calculation. Our results indicate this is not the most accurate determination of the quenched donor signal as it fails to consider the donor spectral bleedthrough (DSBT) signals in the qD for the E calculation, which our new model addresses, leading to a more accurate E result. This refinement improves E comparisons made with lifetime and spectral FRET imaging microscopy as shown here using several genetic (FRET standard) constructs, where cerulean and venus fluorescent proteins are tethered by different amino acid linkers.

  11. A new accurate ground-state potential energy surface of ethylene and predictions for rotational and vibrational energy levels

    SciTech Connect

    Delahaye, Thibault Rey, Michaël Tyuterev, Vladimir G.; Nikitin, Andrei; Szalay, Péter G.

    2014-09-14

    In this paper we report a new ground state potential energy surface for ethylene (ethene) C{sub 2}H{sub 4} obtained from extended ab initio calculations. The coupled-cluster approach with the perturbative inclusion of the connected triple excitations CCSD(T) and correlation consistent polarized valence basis set cc-pVQZ was employed for computations of electronic ground state energies. The fit of the surface included 82 542 nuclear configurations using sixth order expansion in curvilinear symmetry-adapted coordinates involving 2236 parameters. A good convergence for variationally computed vibrational levels of the C{sub 2}H{sub 4} molecule was obtained with a RMS(Obs.–Calc.) deviation of 2.7 cm{sup −1} for fundamental bands centers and 5.9 cm{sup −1} for vibrational bands up to 7800 cm{sup −1}. Large scale vibrational and rotational calculations for {sup 12}C{sub 2}H{sub 4}, {sup 13}C{sub 2}H{sub 4}, and {sup 12}C{sub 2}D{sub 4} isotopologues were performed using this new surface. Energy levels for J = 20 up to 6000 cm{sup −1} are in a good agreement with observations. This represents a considerable improvement with respect to available global predictions of vibrational levels of {sup 13}C{sub 2}H{sub 4} and {sup 12}C{sub 2}D{sub 4} and rovibrational levels of {sup 12}C{sub 2}H{sub 4}.

  12. MODEL PREDICTION RESULTS FOR 2008 ULTRASONIC BENCHMARK PROBLEMS

    SciTech Connect

    Kim, Hak-Joon; Song, Sung-Jin

    2009-03-03

    The World Federation of NDE Centers (WFNDEC) has addressed two types of problems for the 2008 ultrasonic benchmark problems: effects of surface curvatures on the ultrasonic responses of flat-bottomed holes, and prediction of side-drilled hole responses at various depths in a steel block. To solve this year ultrasonic benchmark problems, multi-Gaussian beam models was adopted for calculation of insonifying fields on the flat-bottomed holes and the side-drilled holes. And, the Kirchhoff approximation and the separation of variables method were applied for calculation of far-field scattering amplitudes of flat-bottomed holes and side-drilled holes, respectively. In this paper, we present comparison of the model predictions to the experiments for side-drilled holes and discuss the effect of interface curvatures on ultrasonic responses by comparison of the peak-to-peak amplitudes of the flat-bottomed hole responses with different interface curvatures.

  13. A comparison of hypersonic vehicle flight and prediction results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iliff, Kenneth W.; Shafer, Mary F.

    1995-01-01

    Aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic comparisons between flight and ground test for four hypersonic vehicles are discussed. The four vehicles are the X-15, the Reentry F, the Sandia Energetic Reentry Vehicle Experiment (SWERVE), and the Space Shuttle. The comparisons are taken from papers published by researchers active in the various programs. Aerodynamic comparisons include reaction control jet interaction on the Space Shuttle. Various forms of heating including catalytic, boundary layer, shock interaction and interference, and vortex impingement are compared. Predictions were significantly exceeded for the heating caused by vortex impingement (on the Space Shuttle OMS pods) and for heating caused by shock interaction and interference on the X-15 and the Space Shuttle. Predictions of boundary-layer state were in error on the X-15, the SWERVE, and the Space Shuttle vehicles.

  14. A comparison of hypersonic flight and prediction results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iliff, Kenneth W.; Shafer, Mary F.

    1993-01-01

    Aerodynamic and aerothermodynamic comparisons between flight and ground test for four hypersonic vehicles are discussed. The four vehicles are the X-15, the Reentry F, the Sandia Energetic Reentry Vehicle Experiment (SWERVE), and the Space Shuttle. The comparisons are taken from papers published by researchers active in the various programs. Aerodynamic comparisons include reaction control jet interaction on the Space Shuttle. Various forms of heating including catalytic, boundary layer, shock interaction and interference, and vortex impingement are compared. Predictions were significantly exceeded for the heating caused by vortex impingement (on the Space Shuttle OMS pods) and for heating caused by shock interaction and interference on the X-15 and the Space Shuttle. Predictions of boundary-layer state were in error on the X-15, the SWERVE, and the Space Shuttle vehicles.

  15. Noncontrast computed tomography can predict the outcome of shockwave lithotripsy via accurate stone measurement and abdominal fat distribution determination.

    PubMed

    Geng, Jiun-Hung; Tu, Hung-Pin; Shih, Paul Ming-Chen; Shen, Jung-Tsung; Jang, Mei-Yu; Wu, Wen-Jen; Li, Ching-Chia; Chou, Yii-Her; Juan, Yung-Shun

    2015-01-01

    Urolithiasis is a common disease of the urinary system. Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) has become one of the standard treatments for renal and ureteral stones; however, the success rates range widely and failure of stone disintegration may cause additional outlay, alternative procedures, and even complications. We used the data available from noncontrast abdominal computed tomography (NCCT) to evaluate the impact of stone parameters and abdominal fat distribution on calculus-free rates following SWL. We retrospectively reviewed 328 patients who had urinary stones and had undergone SWL from August 2012 to August 2013. All of them received pre-SWL NCCT; 1 month after SWL, radiography was arranged to evaluate the condition of the fragments. These patients were classified into stone-free group and residual stone group. Unenhanced computed tomography variables, including stone attenuation, abdominal fat area, and skin-to-stone distance (SSD) were analyzed. In all, 197 (60%) were classified as stone-free and 132 (40%) as having residual stone. The mean ages were 49.35 ± 13.22 years and 55.32 ± 13.52 years, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, stone size, stone surface area, stone attenuation, SSD, total fat area (TFA), abdominal circumference, serum creatinine, and the severity of hydronephrosis revealed statistical significance between these two groups. From multivariate logistic regression analysis, the independent parameters impacting SWL outcomes were stone size, stone attenuation, TFA, and serum creatinine. [Adjusted odds ratios and (95% confidence intervals): 9.49 (3.72-24.20), 2.25 (1.22-4.14), 2.20 (1.10-4.40), and 2.89 (1.35-6.21) respectively, all p < 0.05]. In the present study, stone size, stone attenuation, TFA and serum creatinine were four independent predictors for stone-free rates after SWL. These findings suggest that pretreatment NCCT may predict the outcomes after SWL. Consequently, we can use these predictors for selecting

  16. Advanced Predictive Model and Real-World Results for Medium Concentration CPV

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Karney, Bruce; Finot, Marc

    2011-12-01

    Skyline Solar has developed a novel medium concentration PV product. The system is a linear concentrator that tracks the sun with a 1-axis horizontal tracker. Reflectors are used to concentrate sunlight 7-50x using non-imaging optics. The receivers use Silicon cells and passive cooling. The product's design has been guided by a detailed Performance Prediction Tool (PPT) that relates component characteristics and climate data to the overall energy production. In contrast with other tools, the PPT captures the non-linearity of conditions such as weather, system architecture (stringing, shadow management) and the value of energy as a function of time of day and season. This paper describes the key elements of the PPT and compares its predictions to real-world results from different locations with significantly different DNI. Moderate DNI sites are San Jose, California and Kona, Hawaii. The higher DNI site is Nipton, California (DNI ˜7.2). Skyline's PPT accurately predicts the energy harvest for two Skyline Solar systems including the HGS 1000 and the new Skyline Solar X14 System.

  17. Why Don't We Learn to Accurately Forecast Feelings? How Misremembering Our Predictions Blinds Us to Past Forecasting Errors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meyvis, Tom; Ratner, Rebecca K.; Levav, Jonathan

    2010-01-01

    Why do affective forecasting errors persist in the face of repeated disconfirming evidence? Five studies demonstrate that people misremember their forecasts as consistent with their experience and thus fail to perceive the extent of their forecasting error. As a result, people do not learn from past forecasting errors and fail to adjust subsequent…

  18. A theoretical prediction of hydrogen molecule dissociation-recombination rates including an accurate treatment of internal state nonequilibrium effects

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwenke, David W.

    1990-01-01

    The dissociation and recombination of H2 over the temperature range 1000-5000 K are calculated in a nonempirical manner. The computation procedure involves the calculation of the state-to-state energy transfer rate coefficients, the solution of the 349 coupled equations which form the master equation, and the determination of the phenomenological rate coefficients. The nonempirical results presented here are in good agreement with experimental data at 1000 and 3000 K.

  19. Esthetic rehabilitation of anterior conoid teeth: comprehensive approach for improved and predictable results.

    PubMed

    Pena, Carlos E; Viotti, Ronaldo G; Dias, Walter R; Santucci, Edward; Rodrigues, Jose A; Reis, Andre F

    2009-01-01

    The esthetic success of a dental treatment depends on the correct diagnosis, treatment plan and clinical and laboratory procedures. This clinical report describes a diagnostically based protocol for conservative preparations on anterior teeth for adhesively retained composite and porcelain restorations. The diagnostic additive wax-up, periodontal esthetic crown-lengthening, direct acrylic mock-up, conservative preparations for ceramic laminate veneers, luting procedures, direct restorations with composite resin used for the esthetic rehabilitation of a patient presenting conoid lateral incisors, and an unsatisfactory class IV restoration in the left central incisor are presented. An accurate diagnostic and interdisciplinary approach is necessary for obtaining improved, conservative and predictable esthetic results in esthetically compromised areas, such as the anterior maxillary dentition.

  20. Discussion of the indicators used in developing an early and accurate judgemental prediction of weak recovery or depression

    SciTech Connect

    Santini, D.J.

    1983-04-01

    A theory is developed which asserts that energy-price-induced innovation causes depression and recessions. Recessions result from promptly adopted successful innovation, which caused declining demand for the products replaced by the successful innovation. A series of partially successful costly innovations occurs during the years of collapse into a depression. Consumers withdraw from the market because of the cost and uncertainty resulting from the innovation process. This theory is compared to and logically related to those of Schumpeter, Keynes, Mench, Freeman, and Marchetti. The theory is tested for the transportation sector of the economy, the most energy intensive economic sector. It is shown that vehicle innovation starts just before major US depressions and extends through each depression. The cycles of vehicle innovation are linked to collapses in vehicle output and to declines in GNP. Three depressions are studied in detail. These are the Debt Repudiation Depression of 1839 to 1843, the Depression of the Nineties, and the Great Depression. Characteristics of these depressions are contrasted with recessions since 1890 and with current US conditions. Proper actions by the US auto industry, e.g., introduction of new low priced models, will not occur during this year. A fuel tax whose revenues would be used to promote the sales of new, fuel efficient domestic automobiles is suggested for consideration as a means of assuring a recovery rather than a depression. In April of 1983 an increase of gasoline taxes, differential sales incentives increases on fuel efficient cars, and government payments to individual consumers (tax refunds) all combined to lead to increases in auto sales, record stock price levels and general optimism about economic recovery.

  1. Assessment of a sponge layer as a non-reflective boundary treatment with highly accurate gust–airfoil interaction results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crivellini, A.

    2016-02-01

    This paper deals with the numerical performance of a sponge layer as a non-reflective boundary condition. This technique is well known and widely adopted, but only recently have the reasons for a sponge failure been recognised, in analysis by Mani. For multidimensional problems, the ineffectiveness of the method is due to the self-reflections of the sponge occurring when it interacts with an oblique acoustic wave. Based on his theoretical investigations, Mani gives some useful guidelines for implementing effective sponge layers. However, in our opinion, some practical indications are still missing from the current literature. Here, an extensive numerical study of the performance of this technique is presented. Moreover, we analyse a reduced sponge implementation characterised by undamped partial differential equations for the velocity components. The main aim of this paper relies on the determination of the minimal width of the layer, as well as of the corresponding strength, required to obtain a reflection error of no more than a few per cent of that observed when solving the same problem on the same grid, but without employing the sponge layer term. For this purpose, a test case of computational aeroacoustics, the single airfoil gust response problem, has been addressed in several configurations. As a direct consequence of our investigation, we present a well documented and highly validated reference solution for the far-field acoustic intensity, a result that is not well established in the literature. Lastly, the proof of the accuracy of an algorithm for coupling sub-domains solved by the linear and non-liner Euler governing equations is given. This result is here exploited to adopt a linear-based sponge layer even in a non-linear computation.

  2. Assessment of a sponge layer as a non-reflective boundary treatment with highly accurate gust-airfoil interaction results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Crivellini, A.

    2016-02-01

    This paper deals with the numerical performance of a sponge layer as a non-reflective boundary condition. This technique is well known and widely adopted, but only recently have the reasons for a sponge failure been recognised, in analysis by Mani. For multidimensional problems, the ineffectiveness of the method is due to the self-reflections of the sponge occurring when it interacts with an oblique acoustic wave. Based on his theoretical investigations, Mani gives some useful guidelines for implementing effective sponge layers. However, in our opinion, some practical indications are still missing from the current literature. Here, an extensive numerical study of the performance of this technique is presented. Moreover, we analyse a reduced sponge implementation characterised by undamped partial differential equations for the velocity components. The main aim of this paper relies on the determination of the minimal width of the layer, as well as of the corresponding strength, required to obtain a reflection error of no more than a few per cent of that observed when solving the same problem on the same grid, but without employing the sponge layer term. For this purpose, a test case of computational aeroacoustics, the single airfoil gust response problem, has been addressed in several configurations. As a direct consequence of our investigation, we present a well documented and highly validated reference solution for the far-field acoustic intensity, a result that is not well established in the literature. Lastly, the proof of the accuracy of an algorithm for coupling sub-domains solved by the linear and non-liner Euler governing equations is given. This result is here exploited to adopt a linear-based sponge layer even in a non-linear computation.

  3. Immune biomarkers are more accurate in prediction of survival in ulcerated than in non-ulcerated primary melanomas

    PubMed Central

    de Moll, Ellen H.; Fu, Yichun; Qian, Yingzhi; Perkins, Sara H.; Wieder, Shira; Gnjatic, Sacha; Remark, Romain; Bernardo, Sebastian G.; Moskalenko, Marina; Yao, Jonathan; Ferringer, Tammie; Chang, Rui; Chipuk, Jerry; Horst, Basil A.; Birge, Miriam B.; Phelps, Robert G.

    2015-01-01

    Introduction Ulcerated melanomas may have a unique biology and microenvironment. We test whether markers of immune infiltration correlate with clinical outcome in ulcerated compared to non-ulcerated primary melanoma tumors. Methods Sixty-two stage II–III cutaneous melanomas, 32 ulcerated and 30 non-ulcerated, were analyzed for tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs). Immunohistochemistry (IHC) was performed for CD2, a marker previously shown to correlate with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in this patient population. IHC using antibody, VE1, to BRAF V600E was also performed on a subset of 41 tumors to assess the relationship of BRAF mutation to immune markers. Results We found, using Cox regression models, that the presence of TILs was associated with improved OS (p = 0.034) and RFS (p = 0.002) in ulcerated melanoma tumors, but not in non-ulcerated melanoma (p = 0.632, 0.416). CD2 expression also was correlated with improved OS (p = 0.021) and RFS (p = 0.001) in ulcerated melanoma, but no relationship was seen in non-ulcerated melanoma (p = 0.427, 0.682). In this small population, BRAF status did not correlate with TILs or CD2+ count. Conclusion Our data show that immune markers including TILs and CD2 count correlate more closely with survival in ulcerated melanomas than that in non-ulcerated melanomas. We propose that immune biomarkers may be particularly relevant to ulcerated, as compared to non-ulcerated, melanomas and that this merits study in larger populations. PMID:26076664

  4. The route to MBxNyCz molecular wheels: II. Results using accurate functionals and basis sets

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Güthler, A.; Mukhopadhyay, S.; Pandey, R.; Boustani, I.

    2014-04-01

    Applying ab initio quantum chemical methods, molecular wheels composed of metal and light atoms were investigated. High quality basis sets 6-31G*, TZPV, and cc-pVTZ as well as exchange and non-local correlation functionals B3LYP, BP86 and B3P86 were used. The ground-state energy and structures of cyclic planar and pyramidal clusters TiBn (for n = 3-10) were computed. In addition, the relative stability and electronic structures of molecular wheels TiBxNyCz (for x, y, z = 0-10) and MBnC10-n (for n = 2 to 5 and M = Sc to Zn) were determined. This paper sustains a follow-up study to the previous one of Boustani and Pandey [Solid State Sci. 14 (2012) 1591], in which the calculations were carried out at the HF-SCF/STO3G/6-31G level of theory to determine the initial stability and properties. The results show that there is a competition between the 2D planar and the 3D pyramidal TiBn clusters (for n = 3-8). Different isomers of TiB10 clusters were also studied and a structural transition of 3D-isomer into 2D-wheel is presented. Substitution boron in TiB10 by carbon or/and nitrogen atoms enhances the stability and leads toward the most stable wheel TiB3C7. Furthermore, the computations show that Sc, Ti and V at the center of the molecular wheels are energetically favored over other transition metal atoms of the first row.

  5. Accurate prediction of explicit solvent atom distribution in HIV-1 protease and F-ATP synthase by statistical theory of liquids

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sindhikara, Daniel; Yoshida, Norio; Hirata, Fumio

    2012-02-01

    We have created a simple algorithm for automatically predicting the explicit solvent atom distribution of biomolecules. The explicit distribution is coerced from the 3D continuous distribution resulting from a 3D-RISM calculation. This procedure predicts optimal location of solvent molecules and ions given a rigid biomolecular structure. We show examples of predicting water molecules near KNI-275 bound form of HIV-1 protease and predicting both sodium ions and water molecules near the rotor ring of F-ATP synthase. Our results give excellent agreement with experimental structure with an average prediction error of 0.45-0.65 angstroms. Further, unlike experimental methods, this method does not suffer from the partial occupancy limit. Our method can be performed directly on 3D-RISM output within minutes. It is useful not only as a location predictor but also as a convenient method for generating initial structures for MD calculations.

  6. Flight Test Results: CTAS Cruise/Descent Trajectory Prediction Accuracy for En route ATC Advisories

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Green, S.; Grace, M.; Williams, D.

    1999-01-01

    The Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS), under development at NASA Ames Research Center, is designed to assist controllers with the management and control of air traffic transitioning to/from congested airspace. This paper focuses on the transition from the en route environment, to high-density terminal airspace, under a time-based arrival-metering constraint. Two flight tests were conducted at the Denver Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC) to study trajectory-prediction accuracy, the key to accurate Decision Support Tool advisories such as conflict detection/resolution and fuel-efficient metering conformance. In collaboration with NASA Langley Research Center, these test were part of an overall effort to research systems and procedures for the integration of CTAS and flight management systems (FMS). The Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle Boeing 737 airplane flew a combined total of 58 cruise-arrival trajectory runs while following CTAS clearance advisories. Actual trajectories of the airplane were compared to CTAS and FMS predictions to measure trajectory-prediction accuracy and identify the primary sources of error for both. The research airplane was used to evaluate several levels of cockpit automation ranging from conventional avionics to a performance-based vertical navigation (VNAV) FMS. Trajectory prediction accuracy was analyzed with respect to both ARTCC radar tracking and GPS-based aircraft measurements. This paper presents detailed results describing the trajectory accuracy and error sources. Although differences were found in both accuracy and error sources, CTAS accuracy was comparable to the FMS in terms of both meter-fix arrival-time performance (in support of metering) and 4D-trajectory prediction (key to conflict prediction). Overall arrival time errors (mean plus standard deviation) were measured to be approximately 24 seconds during the first flight test (23 runs) and 15 seconds during the second flight test (25 runs). The major

  7. FRONTIER FIELDS: HIGH-REDSHIFT PREDICTIONS AND EARLY RESULTS

    SciTech Connect

    Coe, Dan; Bradley, Larry; Zitrin, Adi

    2015-02-20

    The Frontier Fields program is obtaining deep Hubble and Spitzer Space Telescope images of new ''blank'' fields and nearby fields gravitationally lensed by massive galaxy clusters. The Hubble images of the lensed fields are revealing nJy sources (AB mag > 31), the faintest galaxies yet observed. The full program will transform our understanding of galaxy evolution in the first 600 million years (z > 9). Previous programs have yielded a dozen or so z > 9 candidates, including perhaps fewer than expected in the Ultra Deep Field and more than expected in shallower Hubble images. In this paper, we present high-redshift (z > 6) number count predictions for the Frontier Fields and candidates in three of the first Hubble images. We show the full Frontier Fields program may yield up to ∼70 z > 9 candidates (∼6 per field). We base this estimate on an extrapolation of luminosity functions observed between 4 < z < 8 and gravitational lensing models submitted by the community. However, in the first two deep infrared Hubble images obtained to date, we find z ∼ 8 candidates but no strong candidates at z > 9. We defer quantitative analysis of the z > 9 deficit (including detection completeness estimates) to future work including additional data. At these redshifts, cosmic variance (field-to-field variation) is expected to be significant (greater than ±50%) and include clustering of early galaxies formed in overdensities. The full Frontier Fields program will significantly mitigate this uncertainty by observing six independent sightlines each with a lensing cluster and nearby blank field.

  8. Dose Addition Models Based on Biologically Relevant Reductions in Fetal Testosterone Accurately Predict Postnatal Reproductive Tract Alterations by a Phthalate Mixture in Rats.

    PubMed

    Howdeshell, Kembra L; Rider, Cynthia V; Wilson, Vickie S; Furr, Johnathan R; Lambright, Christy R; Gray, L Earl

    2015-12-01

    Challenges in cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic phthalate mixtures include a lack of data on all the individual phthalates and difficulty determining the biological relevance of reduction in fetal testosterone (T) on postnatal development. The objectives of the current study were 2-fold: (1) to test whether a mixture model of dose addition based on the fetal T production data of individual phthalates would predict the effects of a 5 phthalate mixture on androgen-sensitive postnatal male reproductive tract development, and (2) to determine the biological relevance of the reductions in fetal T to induce abnormal postnatal reproductive tract development using data from the mixture study. We administered a dose range of the mixture (60, 40, 20, 10, and 5% of the top dose used in the previous fetal T production study consisting of 300 mg/kg per chemical of benzyl butyl (BBP), di(n)butyl (DBP), diethyl hexyl phthalate (DEHP), di-isobutyl phthalate (DiBP), and 100 mg dipentyl (DPP) phthalate/kg; the individual phthalates were present in equipotent doses based on their ability to reduce fetal T production) via gavage to Sprague Dawley rat dams on GD8-postnatal day 3. We compared observed mixture responses to predictions of dose addition based on the previously published potencies of the individual phthalates to reduce fetal T production relative to a reference chemical and published postnatal data for the reference chemical (called DAref). In addition, we predicted DA (called DAall) and response addition (RA) based on logistic regression analysis of all 5 individual phthalates when complete data were available. DA ref and DA all accurately predicted the observed mixture effect for 11 of 14 endpoints. Furthermore, reproductive tract malformations were seen in 17-100% of F1 males when fetal T production was reduced by about 25-72%, respectively. PMID:26350170

  9. [Biliary atresias operated with favourable results: predictable outcome].

    PubMed

    Broto, J; Gil Vernet, J M; Ormaechea, M

    2005-01-01

    Since 1975, our experience in the treatment of biliary atresia with Kasai's technique has improved little by little, achieving 65% favourable outcome in the last five years. We define "good results" as the complete restoration of biliary flow and normalization of bilirrubin levels. The long-term evolution of these good results can be diverse. The objective of the present work is to analyze the outcome of patients in our series in whom a favourable initial response was achieved, as well as evaluating their present situation and future perspectives. The authors present a total of 17 patients operated by Kasai's technique since 1985, that constitutes the group with good results in our series. The controls were based on general analysis, liver function and periodic ultrasound explorations. All received a standardized medical treatment consisting of vitamin supplements (A, D3, E, K) minerals (zinc, calcium, phosphate, iron) ursodexoxicolic acid, luminal,as well as close control of calorie intake. In two patients the levels of bilirrubine were progressively increased with time, stabilizing at between 5/6 mgs/100 ml, with progressive hepatic hardening, appearance of splenomegalia, indirect signs of portal hypertension and a slight deterioration of hepatic function. One received a transplant at age 12 with Quick levels below 50%. The other, aged 16, continues with an acceptable hepatic function and good quality of life under recommendation of transplant. Eleven patients with ages ranging from fourteen months to seventeen years presented slight and firm hepatomegalia, moderate portal hypertension, GOT 71 +/- 8 mg/100 ml, GPT 97 +/- 11 mg/100 ml and normal bilirrubine levels. From this group, 3 patients, all under five years of age, experienced bleeding from esophageal varices which were controlled by sclerosis and medical treatment (propanolol and isosorbide dinitrate). Recently, one three year-old patient developed a hepatocarcinoma of rapid, mortal evolution. Since then

  10. NetMHC-3.0: accurate web accessible predictions of human, mouse and monkey MHC class I affinities for peptides of length 8-11.

    PubMed

    Lundegaard, Claus; Lamberth, Kasper; Harndahl, Mikkel; Buus, Søren; Lund, Ole; Nielsen, Morten

    2008-07-01

    NetMHC-3.0 is trained on a large number of quantitative peptide data using both affinity data from the Immune Epitope Database and Analysis Resource (IEDB) and elution data from SYFPEITHI. The method generates high-accuracy predictions of major histocompatibility complex (MHC): peptide binding. The predictions are based on artificial neural networks trained on data from 55 MHC alleles (43 Human and 12 non-human), and position-specific scoring matrices (PSSMs) for additional 67 HLA alleles. As only the MHC class I prediction server is available, predictions are possible for peptides of length 8-11 for all 122 alleles. artificial neural network predictions are given as actual IC(50) values whereas PSSM predictions are given as a log-odds likelihood scores. The output is optionally available as download for easy post-processing. The training method underlying the server is the best available, and has been used to predict possible MHC-binding peptides in a series of pathogen viral proteomes including SARS, Influenza and HIV, resulting in an average of 75-80% confirmed MHC binders. Here, the performance is further validated and benchmarked using a large set of newly published affinity data, non-redundant to the training set. The server is free of use and available at: http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetMHC.

  11. [The prediction of the results of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy].

    PubMed

    Stepanov, V N; Perel'man, V M; Kadyrov, Z A

    1997-01-01

    The disease history, objective, x-ray and aggregatometry evidence has been analyzed for 188 nephroureterolithiasis patients to make the prognosis of extracorporeal impulse lithotripsy (EIL). If the concrements presented at x-ray picture as structurally homogeneous, medium-contrast, with even margins, fragmentation occurred after 3-4 sessions in 81% of the cases. Low or high contrast calculi with heterogeneous margins disintegrated after 1-2 EIL sessions. Flat calculi were easier to crush than round ones. A decline or absence of changes on the aggregatometry curves prompted the decision on efficacy of further EIL. The calculi which existed for 6 months maximum were the easiest to crush. The outcome of the previous EIL is also essential for prognosis. Inflammation and obesity worsen EIL results. Variant of EIL regimen and the number of impulses are also prognostically significant.

  12. Discovery of a general method of solving the Schrödinger and dirac equations that opens a way to accurately predictive quantum chemistry.

    PubMed

    Nakatsuji, Hiroshi

    2012-09-18

    Just as Newtonian law governs classical physics, the Schrödinger equation (SE) and the relativistic Dirac equation (DE) rule the world of chemistry. So, if we can solve these equations accurately, we can use computation to predict chemistry precisely. However, for approximately 80 years after the discovery of these equations, chemists believed that they could not solve SE and DE for atoms and molecules that included many electrons. This Account reviews ideas developed over the past decade to further the goal of predictive quantum chemistry. Between 2000 and 2005, I discovered a general method of solving the SE and DE accurately. As a first inspiration, I formulated the structure of the exact wave function of the SE in a compact mathematical form. The explicit inclusion of the exact wave function's structure within the variational space allows for the calculation of the exact wave function as a solution of the variational method. Although this process sounds almost impossible, it is indeed possible, and I have published several formulations and applied them to solve the full configuration interaction (CI) with a very small number of variables. However, when I examined analytical solutions for atoms and molecules, the Hamiltonian integrals in their secular equations diverged. This singularity problem occurred in all atoms and molecules because it originates from the singularity of the Coulomb potential in their Hamiltonians. To overcome this problem, I first introduced the inverse SE and then the scaled SE. The latter simpler idea led to immediate and surprisingly accurate solution for the SEs of the hydrogen atom, helium atom, and hydrogen molecule. The free complement (FC) method, also called the free iterative CI (free ICI) method, was efficient for solving the SEs. In the FC method, the basis functions that span the exact wave function are produced by the Hamiltonian of the system and the zeroth-order wave function. These basis functions are called complement

  13. Tuning of Strouhal number for high propulsive efficiency accurately predicts how wingbeat frequency and stroke amplitude relate and scale with size and flight speed in birds.

    PubMed Central

    Nudds, Robert L.; Taylor, Graham K.; Thomas, Adrian L. R.

    2004-01-01

    The wing kinematics of birds vary systematically with body size, but we still, after several decades of research, lack a clear mechanistic understanding of the aerodynamic selection pressures that shape them. Swimming and flying animals have recently been shown to cruise at Strouhal numbers (St) corresponding to a regime of vortex growth and shedding in which the propulsive efficiency of flapping foils peaks (St approximately fA/U, where f is wingbeat frequency, U is cruising speed and A approximately bsin(theta/2) is stroke amplitude, in which b is wingspan and theta is stroke angle). We show that St is a simple and accurate predictor of wingbeat frequency in birds. The Strouhal numbers of cruising birds have converged on the lower end of the range 0.2 < St < 0.4 associated with high propulsive efficiency. Stroke angle scales as theta approximately 67b-0.24, so wingbeat frequency can be predicted as f approximately St.U/bsin(33.5b-0.24), with St0.21 and St0.25 for direct and intermittent fliers, respectively. This simple aerodynamic model predicts wingbeat frequency better than any other relationship proposed to date, explaining 90% of the observed variance in a sample of 60 bird species. Avian wing kinematics therefore appear to have been tuned by natural selection for high aerodynamic efficiency: physical and physiological constraints upon wing kinematics must be reconsidered in this light. PMID:15451698

  14. Genome-Scale Metabolic Model for the Green Alga Chlorella vulgaris UTEX 395 Accurately Predicts Phenotypes under Autotrophic, Heterotrophic, and Mixotrophic Growth Conditions.

    PubMed

    Zuñiga, Cristal; Li, Chien-Ting; Huelsman, Tyler; Levering, Jennifer; Zielinski, Daniel C; McConnell, Brian O; Long, Christopher P; Knoshaug, Eric P; Guarnieri, Michael T; Antoniewicz, Maciek R; Betenbaugh, Michael J; Zengler, Karsten

    2016-09-01

    The green microalga Chlorella vulgaris has been widely recognized as a promising candidate for biofuel production due to its ability to store high lipid content and its natural metabolic versatility. Compartmentalized genome-scale metabolic models constructed from genome sequences enable quantitative insight into the transport and metabolism of compounds within a target organism. These metabolic models have long been utilized to generate optimized design strategies for an improved production process. Here, we describe the reconstruction, validation, and application of a genome-scale metabolic model for C. vulgaris UTEX 395, iCZ843. The reconstruction represents the most comprehensive model for any eukaryotic photosynthetic organism to date, based on the genome size and number of genes in the reconstruction. The highly curated model accurately predicts phenotypes under photoautotrophic, heterotrophic, and mixotrophic conditions. The model was validated against experimental data and lays the foundation for model-driven strain design and medium alteration to improve yield. Calculated flux distributions under different trophic conditions show that a number of key pathways are affected by nitrogen starvation conditions, including central carbon metabolism and amino acid, nucleotide, and pigment biosynthetic pathways. Furthermore, model prediction of growth rates under various medium compositions and subsequent experimental validation showed an increased growth rate with the addition of tryptophan and methionine. PMID:27372244

  15. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomputers, have made it possible to solve a number of electronic structure problems exactly using the full configuration interaction (FCI) method within a subspace of the complete Hilbert space. These exact results can be used to benchmark approximate techniques that are applicable to a wider range of chemical and physical problems. The methodology of many-electron quantum chemistry is reviewed. Methods are considered in detail for performing FCI calculations. The application of FCI methods to several three-electron problems in molecular physics are discussed. A number of benchmark applications of FCI wave functions are described. Atomic basis sets and the development of improved methods for handling very large basis sets are discussed: these are then applied to a number of chemical and spectroscopic problems; to transition metals; and to problems involving potential energy surfaces. Although the experiences described give considerable grounds for optimism about the general ability to perform accurate calculations, there are several problems that have proved less tractable, at least with current computer resources, and these and possible solutions are discussed.

  16. Use of quantitative shape-activity relationships to model the photoinduced toxicity of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Electron density shape features accurately predict toxicity

    SciTech Connect

    Mezey, P.G.; Zimpel, Z.; Warburton, P.; Walker, P.D.; Irvine, D.G.; Huang, X.D.; Dixon, D.G.; Greenberg, B.M.

    1998-07-01

    The quantitative shape-activity relationship (QShAR) methodology, based on accurate three-dimensional electron densities and detailed shape analysis methods, has been applied to a Lemna gibba photoinduced toxicity data set of 16 polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) molecules. In the first phase of the studies, a shape fragment QShAR database of PAHs was developed. The results provide a very good match to toxicity based on a combination of the local shape features of single rings in comparison to the central ring of anthracene and a more global shape feature involving larger molecular fragments. The local shape feature appears as a descriptor of the susceptibility of PAHs to photomodification and the global shape feature is probably related to photosensitization activity.

  17. Prediction of {sup 2}D Rydberg energy levels of {sup 6}Li and {sup 7}Li based on very accurate quantum mechanical calculations performed with explicitly correlated Gaussian functions

    SciTech Connect

    Bubin, Sergiy; Sharkey, Keeper L.; Adamowicz, Ludwik

    2013-04-28

    Very accurate variational nonrelativistic finite-nuclear-mass calculations employing all-electron explicitly correlated Gaussian basis functions are carried out for six Rydberg {sup 2}D states (1s{sup 2}nd, n= 6, Horizontal-Ellipsis , 11) of the {sup 7}Li and {sup 6}Li isotopes. The exponential parameters of the Gaussian functions are optimized using the variational method with the aid of the analytical energy gradient determined with respect to these parameters. The experimental results for the lower states (n= 3, Horizontal-Ellipsis , 6) and the calculated results for the higher states (n= 7, Horizontal-Ellipsis , 11) fitted with quantum-defect-like formulas are used to predict the energies of {sup 2}D 1s{sup 2}nd states for {sup 7}Li and {sup 6}Li with n up to 30.

  18. Use of dose-dependent absorption into target tissues to more accurately predict cancer risk at low oral doses of hexavalent chromium.

    PubMed

    Haney, J

    2015-02-01

    The mouse dose at the lowest water concentration used in the National Toxicology Program hexavalent chromium (CrVI) drinking water study (NTP, 2008) is about 74,500 times higher than the approximate human dose corresponding to the 35-city geometric mean reported in EWG (2010) and over 1000 times higher than that based on the highest reported tap water concentration. With experimental and environmental doses differing greatly, it is a regulatory challenge to extrapolate high-dose results to environmental doses orders of magnitude lower in a meaningful and toxicologically predictive manner. This seems particularly true for the low-dose extrapolation of results for oral CrVI-induced carcinogenesis since dose-dependent differences in the dose fraction absorbed by mouse target tissues are apparent (Kirman et al., 2012). These data can be used for a straightforward adjustment of the USEPA (2010) draft oral slope factor (SFo) to be more predictive of risk at environmentally-relevant doses. More specifically, the evaluation of observed and modeled differences in the fraction of dose absorbed by target tissues at the point-of-departure for the draft SFo calculation versus lower doses suggests that the draft SFo be divided by a dose-specific adjustment factor of at least an order of magnitude to be less over-predictive of risk at more environmentally-relevant doses.

  19. Accurate Prediction of Hyperfine Coupling Constants in Muoniated and Hydrogenated Ethyl Radicals: Ab Initio Path Integral Simulation Study with Density Functional Theory Method.

    PubMed

    Yamada, Kenta; Kawashima, Yukio; Tachikawa, Masanori

    2014-05-13

    We performed ab initio path integral molecular dynamics (PIMD) simulations with a density functional theory (DFT) method to accurately predict hyperfine coupling constants (HFCCs) in the ethyl radical (CβH3-CαH2) and its Mu-substituted (muoniated) compound (CβH2Mu-CαH2). The substitution of a Mu atom, an ultralight isotope of the H atom, with larger nuclear quantum effect is expected to strongly affect the nature of the ethyl radical. The static conventional DFT calculations of CβH3-CαH2 find that the elongation of one Cβ-H bond causes a change in the shape of potential energy curve along the rotational angle via the imbalance of attractive and repulsive interactions between the methyl and methylene groups. Investigation of the methyl-group behavior including the nuclear quantum and thermal effects shows that an unbalanced CβH2Mu group with the elongated Cβ-Mu bond rotates around the Cβ-Cα bond in a muoniated ethyl radical, quite differently from the CβH3 group with the three equivalent Cβ-H bonds in the ethyl radical. These rotations couple with other molecular motions such as the methylene-group rocking motion (inversion), leading to difficulties in reproducing the corresponding barrier heights. Our PIMD simulations successfully predict the barrier heights to be close to the experimental values and provide a significant improvement in muon and proton HFCCs given by the static conventional DFT method. Further investigation reveals that the Cβ-Mu/H stretching motion, methyl-group rotation, methylene-group rocking motion, and HFCC values deeply intertwine with each other. Because these motions are different between the radicals, a proper description of the structural fluctuations reflecting the nuclear quantum and thermal effects is vital to evaluate HFCC values in theory to be comparable to the experimental ones. Accordingly, a fundamental difference in HFCC between the radicals arises from their intrinsic molecular motions at a finite temperature, in

  20. Statistical analysis of accurate prediction of local atmospheric optical attenuation with a new model according to weather together with beam wandering compensation system: a season-wise experimental investigation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arockia Bazil Raj, A.; Padmavathi, S.

    2016-07-01

    Atmospheric parameters strongly affect the performance of Free Space Optical Communication (FSOC) system when the optical wave is propagating through the inhomogeneous turbulent medium. Developing a model to get an accurate prediction of optical attenuation according to meteorological parameters becomes significant to understand the behaviour of FSOC channel during different seasons. A dedicated free space optical link experimental set-up is developed for the range of 0.5 km at an altitude of 15.25 m. The diurnal profile of received power and corresponding meteorological parameters are continuously measured using the developed optoelectronic assembly and weather station, respectively, and stored in a data logging computer. Measured meteorological parameters (as input factors) and optical attenuation (as response factor) of size [177147 × 4] are used for linear regression analysis and to design the mathematical model that is more suitable to predict the atmospheric optical attenuation at our test field. A model that exhibits the R2 value of 98.76% and average percentage deviation of 1.59% is considered for practical implementation. The prediction accuracy of the proposed model is investigated along with the comparative results obtained from some of the existing models in terms of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) during different local seasons in one-year period. The average RMSE value of 0.043-dB/km is obtained in the longer range dynamic of meteorological parameters variations.

  1. PredPPCrys: Accurate Prediction of Sequence Cloning, Protein Production, Purification and Crystallization Propensity from Protein Sequences Using Multi-Step Heterogeneous Feature Fusion and Selection

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Huilin; Wang, Mingjun; Tan, Hao; Li, Yuan; Zhang, Ziding; Song, Jiangning

    2014-01-01

    X-ray crystallography is the primary approach to solve the three-dimensional structure of a protein. However, a major bottleneck of this method is the failure of multi-step experimental procedures to yield diffraction-quality crystals, including sequence cloning, protein material production, purification, crystallization and ultimately, structural determination. Accordingly, prediction of the propensity of a protein to successfully undergo these experimental procedures based on the protein sequence may help narrow down laborious experimental efforts and facilitate target selection. A number of bioinformatics methods based on protein sequence information have been developed for this purpose. However, our knowledge on the important determinants of propensity for a protein sequence to produce high diffraction-quality crystals remains largely incomplete. In practice, most of the existing methods display poorer performance when evaluated on larger and updated datasets. To address this problem, we constructed an up-to-date dataset as the benchmark, and subsequently developed a new approach termed ‘PredPPCrys’ using the support vector machine (SVM). Using a comprehensive set of multifaceted sequence-derived features in combination with a novel multi-step feature selection strategy, we identified and characterized the relative importance and contribution of each feature type to the prediction performance of five individual experimental steps required for successful crystallization. The resulting optimal candidate features were used as inputs to build the first-level SVM predictor (PredPPCrys I). Next, prediction outputs of PredPPCrys I were used as the input to build second-level SVM classifiers (PredPPCrys II), which led to significantly enhanced prediction performance. Benchmarking experiments indicated that our PredPPCrys method outperforms most existing procedures on both up-to-date and previous datasets. In addition, the predicted crystallization targets of

  2. Normal Tissue Complication Probability Estimation by the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman Method Does Not Accurately Predict Spinal Cord Tolerance to Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Daly, Megan E.; Luxton, Gary; Choi, Clara Y.H.; Gibbs, Iris C.; Chang, Steven D.; Adler, John R.; Soltys, Scott G.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To determine whether normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) analyses of the human spinal cord by use of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, supplemented by linear-quadratic modeling to account for the effect of fractionation, predict the risk of myelopathy from stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: From November 2001 to July 2008, 24 spinal hemangioblastomas in 17 patients were treated with SRS. Of the tumors, 17 received 1 fraction with a median dose of 20 Gy (range, 18-30 Gy) and 7 received 20 to 25 Gy in 2 or 3 sessions, with cord maximum doses of 22.7 Gy (range, 17.8-30.9 Gy) and 22.0 Gy (range, 20.2-26.6 Gy), respectively. By use of conventional values for {alpha}/{beta}, volume parameter n, 50% complication probability dose TD{sub 50}, and inverse slope parameter m, a computationally simplified implementation of the LKB model was used to calculate the biologically equivalent uniform dose and NTCP for each treatment. Exploratory calculations were performed with alternate values of {alpha}/{beta} and n. Results: In this study 1 case (4%) of myelopathy occurred. The LKB model using radiobiological parameters from Emami and the logistic model with parameters from Schultheiss overestimated complication rates, predicting 13 complications (54%) and 18 complications (75%), respectively. An increase in the volume parameter (n), to assume greater parallel organization, improved the predictive value of the models. Maximum-likelihood LKB fitting of {alpha}/{beta} and n yielded better predictions (0.7 complications), with n = 0.023 and {alpha}/{beta} = 17.8 Gy. Conclusions: The spinal cord tolerance to the dosimetry of SRS is higher than predicted by the LKB model using any set of accepted parameters. Only a high {alpha}/{beta} value in the LKB model and only a large volume effect in the logistic model with Schultheiss data could explain the low number of complications observed. This finding emphasizes that radiobiological models

  3. The CUPIC algorithm: an accurate model for the prediction of sustained viral response under telaprevir or boceprevir triple therapy in cirrhotic patients.

    PubMed

    Boursier, J; Ducancelle, A; Vergniol, J; Veillon, P; Moal, V; Dufour, C; Bronowicki, J-P; Larrey, D; Hézode, C; Zoulim, F; Fontaine, H; Canva, V; Poynard, T; Allam, S; De Lédinghen, V

    2015-12-01

    Triple therapy using boceprevir or telaprevir remains the reference treatment for genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C in countries where new interferon-free regimens have not yet become available. Antiviral treatment is highly required in cirrhotic patients, but they represent a difficult-to-treat population. We aimed to develop a simple algorithm for the prediction of sustained viral response (SVR) in cirrhotic patients treated with triple therapy. A total of 484 cirrhotic patients from the ANRS CO20 CUPIC cohort treated with triple therapy were randomly distributed into derivation and validation sets. A total of 52.1% of patients achieved SVR. In the derivation set, a D0 score for the prediction of SVR before treatment initiation included the following independent predictors collected at day 0: prior treatment response, gamma-GT, platelets, telaprevir treatment, viral load. To refine the prediction at the early phase of the treatment, a W4 score included as additional parameter the viral load collected at week 4. The D0 and W4 scores were combined in the CUPIC algorithm defining three subgroups: 'no treatment initiation or early stop at week 4', 'undetermined' and 'SVR highly probable'. In the validation set, the rates of SVR in these three subgroups were, respectively, 11.1%, 50.0% and 82.2% (P < 0.001). By replacing the variable 'prior treatment response' with 'IL28B genotype', another algorithm was derived for treatment-naïve patients with similar results. The CUPIC algorithm is an easy-to-use tool that helps physicians weigh their decision between immediately treating cirrhotic patients using boceprevir/telaprevir triple therapy or waiting for new drugs to become available in their country. PMID:26216230

  4. Ab initio molecular dynamics of liquid water using embedded-fragment second-order many-body perturbation theory towards its accurate property prediction

    PubMed Central

    Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Salim, Michael A.; Kim, Kwang S.; Hirata, So

    2015-01-01

    A direct, simultaneous calculation of properties of a liquid using an ab initio electron-correlated theory has long been unthinkable. Here we present structural, dynamical, and response properties of liquid water calculated by ab initio molecular dynamics using the embedded-fragment spin-component-scaled second-order many-body perturbation method with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set. This level of theory is chosen as it accurately and inexpensively reproduces the water dimer potential energy surface from the coupled-cluster singles, doubles, and noniterative triples with the aug-cc-pVQZ basis set, which is nearly exact. The calculated radial distribution function, self-diffusion coefficient, coordinate number, and dipole moment, as well as the infrared and Raman spectra are in excellent agreement with experimental results. The shapes and widths of the OH stretching bands in the infrared and Raman spectra and their isotropic-anisotropic Raman noncoincidence, which reflect the diverse local hydrogen-bond environment, are also reproduced computationally. The simulation also reveals intriguing dynamic features of the environment, which are difficult to probe experimentally, such as a surprisingly large fluctuation in the coordination number and the detailed mechanism by which the hydrogen donating water molecules move across the first and second shells, thereby causing this fluctuation. PMID:26400690

  5. Ab initio molecular dynamics of liquid water using embedded-fragment second-order many-body perturbation theory towards its accurate property prediction.

    PubMed

    Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Salim, Michael A; Kim, Kwang S; Hirata, So

    2015-01-01

    A direct, simultaneous calculation of properties of a liquid using an ab initio electron-correlated theory has long been unthinkable. Here we present structural, dynamical, and response properties of liquid water calculated by ab initio molecular dynamics using the embedded-fragment spin-component-scaled second-order many-body perturbation method with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set. This level of theory is chosen as it accurately and inexpensively reproduces the water dimer potential energy surface from the coupled-cluster singles, doubles, and noniterative triples with the aug-cc-pVQZ basis set, which is nearly exact. The calculated radial distribution function, self-diffusion coefficient, coordinate number, and dipole moment, as well as the infrared and Raman spectra are in excellent agreement with experimental results. The shapes and widths of the OH stretching bands in the infrared and Raman spectra and their isotropic-anisotropic Raman noncoincidence, which reflect the diverse local hydrogen-bond environment, are also reproduced computationally. The simulation also reveals intriguing dynamic features of the environment, which are difficult to probe experimentally, such as a surprisingly large fluctuation in the coordination number and the detailed mechanism by which the hydrogen donating water molecules move across the first and second shells, thereby causing this fluctuation.

  6. Initial Comparison of Single Cylinder Stirling Engine Computer Model Predictions with Test Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tew, R. C., Jr.; Thieme, L. G.; Miao, D.

    1979-01-01

    A Stirling engine digital computer model developed at NASA Lewis Research Center was configured to predict the performance of the GPU-3 single-cylinder rhombic drive engine. Revisions to the basic equations and assumptions are discussed. Model predictions with the early results of the Lewis Research Center GPU-3 tests are compared.

  7. Stereotactic hypofractionated accurate radiotherapy of the prostate (SHARP), 33.5 Gy in five fractions for localized disease: First clinical trial results

    SciTech Connect

    Madsen, Berit L. . E-mail: ronblm@vmmc.org; Hsi, R. Alex; Pham, Huong T.; Fowler, Jack F.; Esagui, Laura C.; Corman, John

    2007-03-15

    Purpose: To evaluate the feasibility and toxicity of stereotactic hypofractionated accurate radiotherapy (SHARP) for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: A Phase I/II trial of SHARP performed for localized prostate cancer using 33.5 Gy in 5 fractions, calculated to be biologically equivalent to 78 Gy in 2 Gy fractions ({alpha}/{beta} ratio of 1.5 Gy). Noncoplanar conformal fields and daily stereotactic localization of implanted fiducials were used for treatment. Genitourinary (GU) and gastrointestinal (GI) toxicity were evaluated by American Urologic Association (AUA) score and Common Toxicity Criteria (CTC). Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) values and self-reported sexual function were recorded at specified follow-up intervals. Results: The study includes 40 patients. The median follow-up is 41 months (range, 21-60 months). Acute toxicity Grade 1-2 was 48.5% (GU) and 39% (GI); 1 acute Grade 3 GU toxicity. Late Grade 1-2 toxicity was 45% (GU) and 37% (GI). No late Grade 3 or higher toxicity was reported. Twenty-six patients reported potency before therapy; 6 (23%) have developed impotence. Median time to PSA nadir was 18 months with the majority of nadirs less than 1.0 ng/mL. The actuarial 48-month biochemical freedom from relapse is 70% for the American Society for Therapeutic Radiology and Oncology definition and 90% by the alternative nadir + 2 ng/mL failure definition. Conclusions: SHARP for localized prostate cancer is feasible with minimal acute or late toxicity. Dose escalation should be possible.

  8. SNP development from RNA-seq data in a nonmodel fish: how many individuals are needed for accurate allele frequency prediction?

    PubMed

    Schunter, C; Garza, J C; Macpherson, E; Pascual, M

    2014-01-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are rapidly becoming the marker of choice in population genetics due to a variety of advantages relative to other markers, including higher genomic density, data quality, reproducibility and genotyping efficiency, as well as ease of portability between laboratories. Advances in sequencing technology and methodologies to reduce genomic representation have made the isolation of SNPs feasible for nonmodel organisms. RNA-seq is one such technique for the discovery of SNPs and development of markers for large-scale genotyping. Here, we report the development of 192 validated SNP markers for parentage analysis in Tripterygion delaisi (the black-faced blenny), a small rocky-shore fish from the Mediterranean Sea. RNA-seq data for 15 individual samples were used for SNP discovery by applying a series of selection criteria. Genotypes were then collected from 1599 individuals from the same population with the resulting loci. Differences in heterozygosity and allele frequencies were found between the two data sets. Heterozygosity was lower, on average, in the population sample, and the mean difference between the frequencies of particular alleles in the two data sets was 0.135 ± 0.100. We used bootstrap resampling of the sequence data to predict appropriate sample sizes for SNP discovery. As cDNA library production is time-consuming and expensive, we suggest that using seven individuals for RNA sequencing reduces the probability of discarding highly informative SNP loci, due to lack of observed polymorphism, whereas use of more than 12 samples does not considerably improve prediction of true allele frequencies.

  9. Is scoring system of computed tomography based metric parameters can accurately predicts shock wave lithotripsy stone-free rates and aid in the development of treatment strategies?

    PubMed Central

    Badran, Yasser Ali; Abdelaziz, Alsayed Saad; Shehab, Mohamed Ahmed; Mohamed, Hazem Abdelsabour Dief; Emara, Absel-Aziz Ali; Elnabtity, Ali Mohamed Ali; Ghanem, Maged Mohammed; ELHelaly, Hesham Abdel Azim

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective was to determine the predicting success of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) using a combination of computed tomography based metric parameters to improve the treatment plan. Patients and Methods: Consecutive 180 patients with symptomatic upper urinary tract calculi 20 mm or less were enrolled in our study underwent extracorporeal SWL were divided into two main groups, according to the stone size, Group A (92 patients with stone ≤10 mm) and Group B (88 patients with stone >10 mm). Both groups were evaluated, according to the skin to stone distance (SSD) and Hounsfield units (≤500, 500–1000 and >1000 HU). Results: Both groups were comparable in baseline data and stone characteristics. About 92.3% of Group A rendered stone-free, whereas 77.2% were stone-free in Group B (P = 0.001). Furthermore, in both group SWL success rates was a significantly higher for stones with lower attenuation <830 HU than with stones >830 HU (P < 0.034). SSD were statistically differences in SWL outcome (P < 0.02). Simultaneous consideration of three parameters stone size, stone attenuation value, and SSD; we found that stone-free rate (SFR) was 100% for stone attenuation value <830 HU for stone <10 mm or >10 mm but total number SWL sessions and shock waves required for the larger stone group were higher than in the smaller group (P < 0.01). Furthermore, SFR was 83.3% and 37.5% for stone <10 mm, mean HU >830, SSD 90 mm and SSD >120 mm, respectively. On the other hand, SFR was 52.6% and 28.57% for stone >10 mm, mean HU >830, SSD <90 mm and SSD >120 mm, respectively. Conclusion: Stone size, stone density (HU), and SSD is simple to calculate and can be reported by radiologists to applying combined score help to augment predictive power of SWL, reduce cost, and improving of treatment strategies. PMID:27141192

  10. Accurate prediction of hard-sphere virial coefficients B6 to B12 from a compressibility-based equation of state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen-Goos, Hendrik

    2016-04-01

    We derive an analytical equation of state for the hard-sphere fluid that is within 0.01% of computer simulations for the whole range of the stable fluid phase. In contrast, the commonly used Carnahan-Starling equation of state deviates by up to 0.3% from simulations. The derivation uses the functional form of the isothermal compressibility from the Percus-Yevick closure of the Ornstein-Zernike relation as a starting point. Two additional degrees of freedom are introduced, which are constrained by requiring the equation of state to (i) recover the exact fourth virial coefficient B4 and (ii) involve only integer coefficients on the level of the ideal gas, while providing best possible agreement with the numerical result for B5. Virial coefficients B6 to B10 obtained from the equation of state are within 0.5% of numerical computations, and coefficients B11 and B12 are within the error of numerical results. We conjecture that even higher virial coefficients are reliably predicted.

  11. Feedback about more accurate versus less accurate trials: differential effects on self-confidence and activation.

    PubMed

    Badami, Rokhsareh; VaezMousavi, Mohammad; Wulf, Gabriele; Namazizadeh, Mahdi

    2012-06-01

    One purpose of the present study was to examine whether self-confidence or anxiety would be differentially affected byfeedback from more accurate rather than less accurate trials. The second purpose was to determine whether arousal variations (activation) would predict performance. On day 1, participants performed a golf putting task under one of two conditions: one group received feedback on the most accurate trials, whereas another group received feedback on the least accurate trials. On day 2, participants completed an anxiety questionnaire and performed a retention test. Shin conductance level, as a measure of arousal, was determined. The results indicated that feedback about more accurate trials resulted in more effective learning as well as increased self-confidence. Also, activation was a predictor of performance. PMID:22808705

  12. Predicting system loads with artificial neural networks: Methods and results from ``The great energy predictor shootout``

    SciTech Connect

    Ohlsson, M.B.O.; Roegnvaldsson, T.S.; Peterson, C.O.; Pi, H.; Soederberg, B.P.W.

    1994-12-31

    A feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN) procedure has been devised for predicting utility loads; the resulting predictions are presented for two test problems given by ``The Great Energy Predictor Shootout-The First Building Data Analysis and Prediction Competition`` (Kreider and Haberl 1994). Key ingredients in this approach are the multilayer perceptron and a method ({delta}-test) for determining relevant inputs. These methods are briefly reviewed, together with comments on alternative schemes such as fitting to polynomials and the use of recurrent networks.

  13. Results from raw milk microbiological tests do not predict the shelf-life performance of commercially pasteurized fluid milk.

    PubMed

    Martin, N H; Ranieri, M L; Murphy, S C; Ralyea, R D; Wiedmann, M; Boor, K J

    2011-03-01

    Analytical tools that accurately predict the performance of raw milk following its manufacture into commercial food products are of economic interest to the dairy industry. To evaluate the ability of currently applied raw milk microbiological tests to predict the quality of commercially pasteurized fluid milk products, samples of raw milk and 2% fat pasteurized milk were obtained from 4 New York State fluid milk processors for a 1-yr period. Raw milk samples were examined using a variety of tests commonly applied to raw milk, including somatic cell count, standard plate count, psychrotrophic bacteria count, ropy milk test, coliform count, preliminary incubation count, laboratory pasteurization count, and spore pasteurization count. Differential and selective media were used to identify groups of bacteria present in raw milk. Pasteurized milk samples were held at 6°C for 21 d and evaluated for standard plate count, coliform count, and sensory quality throughout shelf-life. Bacterial isolates from select raw and pasteurized milk tests were identified using 16S ribosomal DNA sequencing. Linear regression analysis of raw milk test results versus results reflecting pasteurized milk quality consistently showed low R(2) values (<0.45); the majority of R(2) values were <0.25, indicating small relationship between the results from the raw milk tests and results from tests used to evaluate pasteurized milk quality. Our findings suggest the need for new raw milk tests that measure the specific biological barriers that limit shelf-life and quality of fluid milk products.

  14. Sound absorption of porous substrates covered by foliage: experimental results and numerical predictions.

    PubMed

    Ding, Lei; Van Renterghem, Timothy; Botteldooren, Dick; Horoshenkov, Kirill; Khan, Amir

    2013-12-01

    The influence of loose plant leaves on the acoustic absorption of a porous substrate is experimentally and numerically studied. Such systems are typical in vegetative walls, where the substrate has strong acoustical absorbing properties. Both experiments in an impedance tube and theoretical predictions show that when a leaf is placed in front of such a porous substrate, its absorption characteristics markedly change (for normal incident sound). Typically, there is an unaffected change in the low frequency absorption coefficient (below 250 Hz), an increase in the middle frequency absorption coefficient (500-2000 Hz) and a decrease in the absorption at higher frequencies. The influence of leaves becomes most pronounced when the substrate has a low mass density. A combination of the Biot's elastic frame porous model, viscous damping in the leaf boundary layers and plate vibration theory is implemented via a finite-difference time-domain model, which is able to predict accurately the absorption spectrum of a leaf above a porous substrate system. The change in the absorption spectrum caused by the leaf vibration can be modeled reasonably well assuming the leaf and porous substrate properties are uniform.

  15. Variability in the Propagation Phase of CFD-Based Noise Prediction: Summary of Results From Category 8 of the BANC-III Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lopes, Leonard; Redonnet, Stephane; Imamura, Taro; Ikeda, Tomoaki; Zawodny, Nikolas; Cunha, Guilherme

    2015-01-01

    The usage of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) in noise prediction typically has been a two part process: accurately predicting the flow conditions in the near-field and then propagating the noise from the near-field to the observer. Due to the increase in computing power and the cost benefit when weighed against wind tunnel testing, the usage of CFD to estimate the local flow field of complex geometrical structures has become more routine. Recently, the Benchmark problems in Airframe Noise Computation (BANC) workshops have provided a community focus on accurately simulating the local flow field near the body with various CFD approaches. However, to date, little effort has been given into assessing the impact of the propagation phase of noise prediction. This paper includes results from the BANC-III workshop which explores variability in the propagation phase of CFD-based noise prediction. This includes two test cases: an analytical solution of a quadrupole source near a sphere and a computational solution around a nose landing gear. Agreement between three codes was very good for the analytic test case, but CFD-based noise predictions indicate that the propagation phase can introduce 3dB or more of variability in noise predictions.

  16. Accurate measurements of vadose zone fluxes using automated equilibrium tension plate lysimeters: A synopsis of results from the Spydia research facility, New Zealand.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wöhling, Thomas; Barkle, Greg; Stenger, Roland; Moorhead, Brian; Wall, Aaron; Clague, Juliet

    2014-05-01

    Automated equilibrium tension plate lysimeters (AETLs) are arguably the most accurate method to measure unsaturated water and contaminant fluxes below the root zone at the scale of up to 1 m². The AETL technique utilizes a porous sintered stainless-steel plate to provide a comparatively large sampling area with a continuously controlled vacuum that is in "equilibrium" with the surrounding vadose zone matric pressure to ensure measured fluxes represent those under undisturbed conditions. This novel lysimeter technique was used at an intensive research site for investigations of contaminant pathways from the land surface to the groundwater on a sheep and beef farm under pastoral land use in the Tutaeuaua subcatchment, New Zealand. The Spydia research facility was constructed in 2005 and was fully operational between 2006 and 2011. Extending from a central access caisson, 15 separately controlled AETLs with 0.2 m² surface area were installed at five depths between 0.4 m and 5.1 m into the undisturbed volcanic vadose zone materials. The unique setup of the facility ensured minimum interference of the experimental equipment and external factors with the measurements. Over the period of more than five years, a comprehensive data set was collected at each of the 15 AETL locations which comprises of time series of soil water flux, pressure head, volumetric water contents, and soil temperature. The soil water was regularly analysed for EC, pH, dissolved carbon, various nitrogen compounds (including nitrate, ammonia, and organic N), phosphorus, bromide, chloride, sulphate, silica, and a range of other major ions, as well as for various metals. Climate data was measured directly at the site (rainfall) and a climate station at 500m distance. The shallow groundwater was sampled at three different depths directly from the Spydia caisson and at various observation wells surrounding the facility. Two tracer experiments were conducted at the site in 2009 and 2010. In the 2009

  17. Results of Instrument Observations and Adaptive Prediction of Thermoabrasion of Banks of the Vilyui Reservoir

    SciTech Connect

    Velikin, S. A.; Sobol', I. S.; Sobol', S. V.; Khokhlov, D. N.

    2013-11-15

    Quantitative data derived from observations of reformation of the thermoabrasive banks of the Viliyui Reservoir in Yakutia during the service period from 1972 through 2011, and results of analytical prediction of bank formations over the next 20 years for purposes of monitoring the ecological safety of this water body are presented.

  18. A comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of existing cooperative transcription factors identification algorithms

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Eukaryotic transcriptional regulation is known to be highly connected through the networks of cooperative transcription factors (TFs). Measuring the cooperativity of TFs is helpful for understanding the biological relevance of these TFs in regulating genes. The recent advances in computational techniques led to various predictions of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. As each algorithm integrated different data resources and was developed based on different rationales, it possessed its own merit and claimed outperforming others. However, the claim was prone to subjectivity because each algorithm compared with only a few other algorithms and only used a small set of performance indices for comparison. This motivated us to propose a series of indices to objectively evaluate the prediction performance of existing algorithms. And based on the proposed performance indices, we conducted a comprehensive performance evaluation. Results We collected 14 sets of predicted cooperative TF pairs (PCTFPs) in yeast from 14 existing algorithms in the literature. Using the eight performance indices we adopted/proposed, the cooperativity of each PCTFP was measured and a ranking score according to the mean cooperativity of the set was given to each set of PCTFPs under evaluation for each performance index. It was seen that the ranking scores of a set of PCTFPs vary with different performance indices, implying that an algorithm used in predicting cooperative TF pairs is of strength somewhere but may be of weakness elsewhere. We finally made a comprehensive ranking for these 14 sets. The results showed that Wang J's study obtained the best performance evaluation on the prediction of cooperative TF pairs in yeast. Conclusions In this study, we adopted/proposed eight performance indices to make a comprehensive performance evaluation on the prediction results of 14 existing cooperative TFs identification algorithms. Most importantly, these proposed indices can be easily applied to

  19. Measurement and prediction of rough wall effects on friction factor - Uniform roughness results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scaggs, W. F.; Taylor, Robert P.; Coleman, Hugh W.

    The results of an experimental investigation of the effects of surface roughness on turbulent pipe flow friction factors are presented and compared with predictions from a previously published discrete element roughness model. Friction factor data were acquired over a pipe Reynolds number range from 10,000 to 600,000 for nine different uniformly rough surfaces. These surfaces covered a range of roughness element sizes, spacings and shapes. Predictions from the discrete element roughness model were in very good agreement with the data.

  20. Renal parenchymal histopathology predicts life-threatening chronic kidney disease as a result of radical nephrectomy.

    PubMed

    Sejima, Takehiro; Honda, Masashi; Takenaka, Atsushi

    2015-01-01

    The preoperative prediction of post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency plays an important role in the decision-making process regarding renal surgery options. Furthermore, the prediction of both postoperative renal insufficiency and postoperative cardiovascular disease occurrence, which is suggested to be an adverse consequence caused by renal insufficiency, contributes to the preoperative policy decision as well as the precise informed consent for a renal cell carcinoma patient. Preoperative nomograms for the prediction of post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency, calculated using patient backgrounds, are advocated. The use of these nomograms together with other types of nomograms predicting oncological outcome is beneficial. Post-radical nephrectomy attending physicians can predict renal insufficiency based on the normal renal parenchymal pathology in addition to preoperative patient characteristics. It is suggested that a high level of global glomerulosclerosis in nephrectomized normal renal parenchyma is closely associated with severe renal insufficiency. Some studies showed that post-radical nephrectomy severe renal insufficiency might have an association with increased mortality as a result of cardiovascular disease. Therefore, such pathophysiology should be recognized as life-threatening, surgically-related chronic kidney disease. On the contrary, the investigation of the prediction of mild post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency, which is not related to adverse consequences in the postoperative long-term period, is also promising because the prediction of mild renal insufficiency might be the basis for the substitution of radical nephrectomy for nephron-sparing surgery in technically difficult or compromised cases. The deterioration of quality of life caused by post-radical nephrectomy renal insufficiency should be investigated in conjunction with life-threatening matters.

  1. Results from baseline tests of the SPRE I and comparison with code model predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Cairelli, J.E.; Geng, S.M.; Skupinski, R.C.

    1994-09-01

    The Space Power Research Engine (SPRE), a free-piston Stirling engine with linear alternator, is being tested at the NASA Lewis Research Center as part of the Civil Space Technology Initiative (CSTI) as a candidate for high capacity space power. This paper presents results of base-line engine tests at design and off-design operating conditions. The test results are compared with code model predictions.

  2. Comparison of kinetic theory predictions with experimental results for a vibrated three-dimensional granular bed

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Viswanathan, H.; Wildman, R. D.; Huntley, J. M.; Martin, T. W.

    2006-11-01

    The three-dimensional conservation equations relating energy and momentum transfer in a vibrated three-dimensional granular bed have been solved numerically by the finite element method. Two closures based on granular kinetic theory were used: one, the standard Fourier law relating heat flux to temperature gradient and the other, including an additional concentration gradient term. Each prediction of the two-dimensional axisymmetric granular temperature and packing fraction fields was compared against a one-dimensional model and three-dimensional experimental results, acquired using the technique of positron emission particle tracking. Both closures resulted in solutions that were in reasonable agreement with the experimental results, but it was found that differences between the predictions of each of the closures were relatively small in comparison to the anisotropy of the experimentally determined temperature distribution.

  3. Thermal conductivity of silicic tuffs: predictive formalism and comparison with preliminary experimental results

    SciTech Connect

    Lappin, A. R.

    1980-07-01

    Performance of both near- and far-field thermomechanical calculations to assess the feasibility of waste disposal in silicic tuffs requires a formalism for predicting thermal conductivity of a broad range of tuffs. This report summarizes the available thermal conductivity data for silicate phases that occur in tuffs and describes several grain-density and conductivity trends which may be expected to result from post-emplacement alteration. A bounding curve is drawn that predicts the minimum theoretical matrix (zero-porosity) conductivity for most tuffs as a function of grain density. Comparison of experimental results with this curve shows that experimental conductivities are consistently lower at any given grain density. Use of the lowered bounding curve and an effective gas conductivity of 0.12 W/m{sup 0}C allows conservative prediction of conductivity for a broad range of tuff types. For the samples measured here, use of the predictive curve allows estimation of conductivity to within 15% or better, with one exception. Application and possible improvement of the formalism are also discussed.

  4. Analyzing Medical Image Search Behavior: Semantics and Prediction of Query Results.

    PubMed

    De-Arteaga, Maria; Eggel, Ivan; Kahn, Charles E; Müller, Henning

    2015-10-01

    Log files of information retrieval systems that record user behavior have been used to improve the outcomes of retrieval systems, understand user behavior, and predict events. In this article, a log file of the ARRS GoldMiner search engine containing 222,005 consecutive queries is analyzed. Time stamps are available for each query, as well as masked IP addresses, which enables to identify queries from the same person. This article describes the ways in which physicians (or Internet searchers interested in medical images) search and proposes potential improvements by suggesting query modifications. For example, many queries contain only few terms and therefore are not specific; others contain spelling mistakes or non-medical terms that likely lead to poor or empty results. One of the goals of this report is to predict the number of results a query will have since such a model allows search engines to automatically propose query modifications in order to avoid result lists that are empty or too large. This prediction is made based on characteristics of the query terms themselves. Prediction of empty results has an accuracy above 88%, and thus can be used to automatically modify the query to avoid empty result sets for a user. The semantic analysis and data of reformulations done by users in the past can aid the development of better search systems, particularly to improve results for novice users. Therefore, this paper gives important ideas to better understand how people search and how to use this knowledge to improve the performance of specialized medical search engines.

  5. Stable, high-order SBP-SAT finite difference operators to enable accurate simulation of compressible turbulent flows on curvilinear grids, with application to predicting turbulent jet noise

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Byun, Jaeseung; Bodony, Daniel; Pantano, Carlos

    2014-11-01

    Improved order-of-accuracy discretizations often require careful consideration of their numerical stability. We report on new high-order finite difference schemes using Summation-By-Parts (SBP) operators along with the Simultaneous-Approximation-Terms (SAT) boundary condition treatment for first and second-order spatial derivatives with variable coefficients. In particular, we present a highly accurate operator for SBP-SAT-based approximations of second-order derivatives with variable coefficients for Dirichlet and Neumann boundary conditions. These terms are responsible for approximating the physical dissipation of kinetic and thermal energy in a simulation, and contain grid metrics when the grid is curvilinear. Analysis using the Laplace transform method shows that strong stability is ensured with Dirichlet boundary conditions while weaker stability is obtained for Neumann boundary conditions. Furthermore, the benefits of the scheme is shown in the direct numerical simulation (DNS) of a Mach 1.5 compressible turbulent supersonic jet using curvilinear grids and skew-symmetric discretization. Particularly, we show that the improved methods allow minimization of the numerical filter often employed in these simulations and we discuss the qualities of the simulation.

  6. Accurate prediction of diradical chemistry from a single-reference density-matrix method: Model application to the bicyclobutane to gauche-1,3-butadiene isomerization

    SciTech Connect

    Bertels, Luke W.; Mazziotti, David A.

    2014-07-28

    Multireference correlation in diradical molecules can be captured by a single-reference 2-electron reduced-density-matrix (2-RDM) calculation with only single and double excitations in the 2-RDM parametrization. The 2-RDM parametrization is determined by N-representability conditions that are non-perturbative in their treatment of the electron correlation. Conventional single-reference wave function methods cannot describe the entanglement within diradical molecules without employing triple- and potentially even higher-order excitations of the mean-field determinant. In the isomerization of bicyclobutane to gauche-1,3-butadiene the parametric 2-RDM (p2-RDM) method predicts that the diradical disrotatory transition state is 58.9 kcal/mol above bicyclobutane. This barrier is in agreement with previous multireference calculations as well as recent Monte Carlo and higher-order coupled cluster calculations. The p2-RDM method predicts the Nth natural-orbital occupation number of the transition state to be 0.635, revealing its diradical character. The optimized geometry from the p2-RDM method differs in important details from the complete-active-space self-consistent-field geometry used in many previous studies including the Monte Carlo calculation.

  7. Accurate Finite Difference Algorithms

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Goodrich, John W.

    1996-01-01

    Two families of finite difference algorithms for computational aeroacoustics are presented and compared. All of the algorithms are single step explicit methods, they have the same order of accuracy in both space and time, with examples up to eleventh order, and they have multidimensional extensions. One of the algorithm families has spectral like high resolution. Propagation with high order and high resolution algorithms can produce accurate results after O(10(exp 6)) periods of propagation with eight grid points per wavelength.

  8. Predicting High-Throughput Screening Results With Scalable Literature-Based Discovery Methods

    PubMed Central

    Cohen, T; Widdows, D; Stephan, C; Zinner, R; Kim, J; Rindflesch, T; Davies, P

    2014-01-01

    The identification of new therapeutic uses for existing agents has been proposed as a means to mitigate the escalating cost of drug development. A common approach to such repurposing involves screening libraries of agents for activities against cell lines. In silico methods using knowledge from the biomedical literature have been proposed to constrain the costs of screening by identifying agents that are likely to be effective a priori. However, results obtained with these methods are seldom evaluated empirically. Conversely, screening experiments have been criticized for their inability to reveal the biological basis of their results. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of a scalable literature-based approach, discovery-by-analogy, to identify a small number of active agents within a large library screened for activity against prostate cancer cells. The methods used permit retrieval of the knowledge used to infer their predictions, providing a plausible biological basis for predicted activity. PMID:25295575

  9. Predicting high-throughput screening results with scalable literature-based discovery methods.

    PubMed

    Cohen, T; Widdows, D; Stephan, C; Zinner, R; Kim, J; Rindflesch, T; Davies, P

    2014-10-08

    The identification of new therapeutic uses for existing agents has been proposed as a means to mitigate the escalating cost of drug development. A common approach to such repurposing involves screening libraries of agents for activities against cell lines. In silico methods using knowledge from the biomedical literature have been proposed to constrain the costs of screening by identifying agents that are likely to be effective a priori. However, results obtained with these methods are seldom evaluated empirically. Conversely, screening experiments have been criticized for their inability to reveal the biological basis of their results. In this paper, we evaluate the ability of a scalable literature-based approach, discovery-by-analogy, to identify a small number of active agents within a large library screened for activity against prostate cancer cells. The methods used permit retrieval of the knowledge used to infer their predictions, providing a plausible biological basis for predicted activity.

  10. Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

    DOE PAGES

    Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; Maki, John T.

    2016-04-07

    Safety tests were conducted on fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800 °C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during 15 of these safety tests. Comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination results of the safety tests were conducted on two types of AGR-1 compacts: compactsmore » containing only intact particles and compacts containing one or more particles whose SiC layers failed during safety testing. In both cases, PARFUME globally over-predicted the experimental release fractions by several orders of magnitude: more than three (intact) and two (failed SiC) orders of magnitude for silver, more than three and up to two orders of magnitude for strontium, and up to two and more than one orders of magnitude for krypton. The release of cesium from intact particles was also largely over-predicted (by up to five orders of magnitude) but its release from particles with failed SiC was only over-predicted by a factor of about 3. These over-predictions can be largely attributed to an over-estimation of the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles. The integral release nature of the data makes it difficult to estimate the individual over-estimations in the kernel or each coating layer. Nevertheless, a tentative assessment of correction factors to these diffusivities was performed to enable a better match between the modeling predictions and the safety testing results. The method could only be successfully applied to silver and cesium. In the case of strontium, correction factors could not be assessed

  11. Transdermal flux predictions for selected selective oestrogen receptor modulators (SERMs): comparison with experimental results.

    PubMed

    Güngör, Sevgi; Delgado-Charro, M Begoña; Masini-Etévé, Valérie; Potts, Russell O; Guy, Richard H

    2013-12-28

    The aim of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of delivering transdermally a series of highly lipophilic compounds (log P ~4-7), comprising several selective oestrogen receptor modulators and a modified testosterone (danazol). The maximum fluxes of the drugs were predicted theoretically using the modified Potts & Guy algorithm (to determine the permeability coefficient (kp) from water) and the calculated aqueous solubilities. The correction provided by Cleek & Bunge took into account the contribution of the viable epidermal barrier to the skin permeation of highly lipophilic compounds. Experimental measurements of drug fluxes from saturated hydroalcoholic solutions were determined in vitro through excised pig skin. Overall, the predicted fluxes were in good general agreement (within a factor of 10) with the experimental results. Most of the experimental fluxes were greater than those predicted theoretically suggesting that the 70:30 v/v ethanol-water vehicle employed may have had a modest skin penetration enhancement effect. This investigation shows that the transdermal fluxes of highly lipophilic compounds can be reasonably predicted from first principles provided that the viable epidermis, underlying the stratum corneum, is included as a potentially important contributor to the skin's overall barrier function. Furthermore, the absolute values of the measured fluxes, when considered in parallel with previous clinical studies, indicate that it might be feasible to topically deliver a therapeutically useful amount of some of the compounds considered to treat cancerous breast tissue. PMID:24076520

  12. Results on Three Predictions for July 2012 Federal Elections in Mexico Based on Past Regularities

    PubMed Central

    Hernández-Saldaña, H.

    2013-01-01

    The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been observed, three of them were selected to make predictions and were published in arXiv:1207.0078 [physics.soc-ph]. Using the database made public in July 2012, two of the predictions were completely fulfilled, while, the third one was measured and confirmed using the database obtained upon request to the electoral authorities. The first two predictions confirmed by actual measures are: (ii) The Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, is a sprinter and has a better performance in polling stations arriving late to capture centers during the process. (iii) Distribution of vote of this party is well described by a smooth function named a Daisy model. A Gamma distribution, but compatible with a Daisy model, fits the distribution as well. The third prediction confirms that errare humanum est, since the error distributions of all the self-consistency variables appeared as a central power law with lateral lobes as in 2000 and 2006 electoral processes. The three measured regularities appeared no matter the political environment. PMID:24386103

  13. Recombination rate variation and speciation: theoretical predictions and empirical results from rabbits and mice.

    PubMed

    Nachman, Michael W; Payseur, Bret A

    2012-02-01

    Recently diverged taxa may continue to exchange genes. A number of models of speciation with gene flow propose that the frequency of gene exchange will be lower in genomic regions of low recombination and that these regions will therefore be more differentiated. However, several population-genetic models that focus on selection at linked sites also predict greater differentiation in regions of low recombination simply as a result of faster sorting of ancestral alleles even in the absence of gene flow. Moreover, identifying the actual amount of gene flow from patterns of genetic variation is tricky, because both ancestral polymorphism and migration lead to shared variation between recently diverged taxa. New analytic methods have been developed to help distinguish ancestral polymorphism from migration. Along with a growing number of datasets of multi-locus DNA sequence variation, these methods have spawned a renewed interest in speciation models with gene flow. Here, we review both speciation and population-genetic models that make explicit predictions about how the rate of recombination influences patterns of genetic variation within and between species. We then compare those predictions with empirical data of DNA sequence variation in rabbits and mice. We find strong support for the prediction that genomic regions experiencing low levels of recombination are more differentiated. In most cases, reduced gene flow appears to contribute to the pattern, although disentangling the relative contribution of reduced gene flow and selection at linked sites remains a challenge. We suggest fruitful areas of research that might help distinguish between different models.

  14. Transdermal flux predictions for selected selective oestrogen receptor modulators (SERMs): comparison with experimental results.

    PubMed

    Güngör, Sevgi; Delgado-Charro, M Begoña; Masini-Etévé, Valérie; Potts, Russell O; Guy, Richard H

    2013-12-28

    The aim of this work was to evaluate the feasibility of delivering transdermally a series of highly lipophilic compounds (log P ~4-7), comprising several selective oestrogen receptor modulators and a modified testosterone (danazol). The maximum fluxes of the drugs were predicted theoretically using the modified Potts & Guy algorithm (to determine the permeability coefficient (kp) from water) and the calculated aqueous solubilities. The correction provided by Cleek & Bunge took into account the contribution of the viable epidermal barrier to the skin permeation of highly lipophilic compounds. Experimental measurements of drug fluxes from saturated hydroalcoholic solutions were determined in vitro through excised pig skin. Overall, the predicted fluxes were in good general agreement (within a factor of 10) with the experimental results. Most of the experimental fluxes were greater than those predicted theoretically suggesting that the 70:30 v/v ethanol-water vehicle employed may have had a modest skin penetration enhancement effect. This investigation shows that the transdermal fluxes of highly lipophilic compounds can be reasonably predicted from first principles provided that the viable epidermis, underlying the stratum corneum, is included as a potentially important contributor to the skin's overall barrier function. Furthermore, the absolute values of the measured fluxes, when considered in parallel with previous clinical studies, indicate that it might be feasible to topically deliver a therapeutically useful amount of some of the compounds considered to treat cancerous breast tissue.

  15. Results on three predictions for July 2012 federal elections in Mexico based on past regularities.

    PubMed

    Hernández-Saldaña, H

    2013-01-01

    The Presidential Election in Mexico of July 2012 has been the third time that PREP, Previous Electoral Results Program works. PREP gives voting outcomes based in electoral certificates of each polling station that arrive to capture centers. In previous ones, some statistical regularities had been observed, three of them were selected to make predictions and were published in arXiv:1207.0078 [physics.soc-ph]. Using the database made public in July 2012, two of the predictions were completely fulfilled, while, the third one was measured and confirmed using the database obtained upon request to the electoral authorities. The first two predictions confirmed by actual measures are: (ii) The Partido Revolucionario Institucional, PRI, is a sprinter and has a better performance in polling stations arriving late to capture centers during the process. (iii) Distribution of vote of this party is well described by a smooth function named a Daisy model. A Gamma distribution, but compatible with a Daisy model, fits the distribution as well. The third prediction confirms that errare humanum est, since the error distributions of all the self-consistency variables appeared as a central power law with lateral lobes as in 2000 and 2006 electoral processes. The three measured regularities appeared no matter the political environment.

  16. The Las Cruces Trench Site: Characterization, Experimental Results, and One-Dimensional Flow Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wierenga, P. J.; Hills, R. G.; Hudson, D. B.

    1991-10-01

    A comprehensive field trench study was conducted in a semiarid area of southern New Mexico to provide data to test deterministic and stochastic models of vadose zone flow and transport. A 4 m by 9 m area was irrigated with water containing a tracer using a carefully controlled drip irrigation system. The area was heavily instrumented with tensiometers and neutron probe access tubes to monitor water movement and with suction tubes to monitor solute transport. Approximately 600 disturbed and 600 core samples of soil were taken to support deterministic and stochastic characterization of the soil water hydraulic parameters. The core sample-based saturated hydraulic conductivities ranged from 1.4 to 6731 cm/d with a mean of 533 cm/d and a standard deviation of 647 cm/d, indicating significant spatial variability. However, visual observation of the wetting front on the trench wall shows no indication of preferential flow or water flow through visible root channels and cracks. The tensiometer readings and the neutron probe measurements also suggest that the wetting front moves in a fairly homogeneous fashion despite the significant spatial variability of the saturated hydraulic conductivity. In addition to the description of the experiment and the presentation of the experimental results, predictions of simple one-dimensional uniform and layered soil deterministic models for infiltration are presented and compared to field observations. These models are presented here to provide a base case against which more sophisticated deterministic and stochastic models can be compared in the future. The results indicate that the simple models give adequate predictions of the overall movement of the wetting front through the soil during infiltration. However, the models give poor predictions of point values for water content due to the spatial variability of the soil. Comparisons between the one-dimensional infiltration model predictions and field observations show that the use of

  17. Tucumán ionospheric model (TIM): Initial results for STEC predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Scidá, L. A.; Ezquer, R. G.; Cabrera, M. A.; Jadur, C.; Sfer, A. M.

    2016-09-01

    Most ionospheric models can calculate vertical total electron content (VTEC) predictions, but only a few are suitable for calculating slant total electron content (STEC). This ionospheric magnitude is generally measured for electron content determinations, with VTEC particularly corresponding to an elevation of 90°. This is generally obtained by applying a mapping function to STEC measurements, which leads to important calculation errors. Moreover, the equatorial region has unique characteristics, such as the fountain effect and the equatorial electrojet, which lead to significant errors in the model's calculations. In this paper, the Tucumán ionospheric model (TIM) is presented as a novel alternative for calculating the STEC in low-latitude regions (-24 to 24 dip latitude). The model is based on spatial geometry where the considered trajectory is segmented, and the corresponding electron density calculations for the resulting segment end points are determined using the semi-empirical low-latitude ionospheric model (SLIM) with reference to their corresponding magnetic coordinates and height. Finally, the electron density values are integrated along the path to obtain the STEC. This work describes the TIM and tests their STEC predictions for five ray paths around the world (totaling 16 cases under study), which are compared with experimental data from satellites and with those calculated by the NeQuick model. Moreover, the TIM performance for VTEC predictions is also checked and compared with VTEC data obtained from Global Positioning System (GPS) signals, IRI model, and NeQuick model predictions, for six GPS receiver stations during the equinox and solstice (totaling 12 cases studied). Comparisons of the TIM predictions with experimental data show that 53% of the calculation has, in general, deviations <30%. For the considered cases, TIM reproduces the experimental data better than the other models.

  18. Prediction Markets and Beliefs about Climate: Results from Agent-Based Simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gilligan, J. M.; John, N. J.; van der Linden, M.

    2015-12-01

    Climate scientists have long been frustrated by persistent doubts a large portion of the public expresses toward the scientific consensus about anthropogenic global warming. The political and ideological polarization of this doubt led Vandenbergh, Raimi, and Gilligan [1] to propose that prediction markets for climate change might influence the opinions of those who mistrust the scientific community but do trust the power of markets.We have developed an agent-based simulation of a climate prediction market in which traders buy and sell future contracts that will pay off at some future year with a value that depends on the global average temperature at that time. The traders form a heterogeneous population with different ideological positions, different beliefs about anthropogenic global warming, and different degrees of risk aversion. We also vary characteristics of the market, including the topology of social networks among the traders, the number of traders, and the completeness of the market. Traders adjust their beliefs about climate according to the gains and losses they and other traders in their social network experience. This model predicts that if global temperature is predominantly driven by greenhouse gas concentrations, prediction markets will cause traders' beliefs to converge toward correctly accepting anthropogenic warming as real. This convergence is largely independent of the structure of the market and the characteristics of the population of traders. However, it may take considerable time for beliefs to converge. Conversely, if temperature does not depend on greenhouse gases, the model predicts that traders' beliefs will not converge. We will discuss the policy-relevance of these results and more generally, the use of agent-based market simulations for policy analysis regarding climate change, seasonal agricultural weather forecasts, and other applications.[1] MP Vandenbergh, KT Raimi, & JM Gilligan. UCLA Law Rev. 61, 1962 (2014).

  19. Accurate predictions of spectroscopic and molecular properties of 27 Λ-S and 73 Ω states of AsS radical.

    PubMed

    Shi, Deheng; Song, Ziyue; Niu, Xianghong; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2016-01-15

    The PECs are calculated for the 27 Λ-S states and their corresponding 73 Ω states of AsS radical. Of these Λ-S states, only the 2(2)Δ and 5(4)Π states are replulsive. The 1(2)Σ(+), 2(2)Σ(+), 4(2)Π, 3(4)Δ, 3(4)Σ(+), and 4(4)Π states possess double wells. The 3(2)Σ(+) state possesses three wells. The A(2)Π, 3(2)Π, 1(2)Φ, 2(4)Π, 3(4)Π, 2(4)Δ, 3(4)Δ, 1(6)Σ(+), and 1(6)Π states are inverted with the SO coupling effect included. The 1(4)Σ(+), 2(4)Σ(+), 2(4)Σ(-), 2(4)Δ, 1(4)Φ, 1(6)Σ(+), and 1(6)Π states, the second wells of 1(2)Σ(+), 3(4)Σ(+), 4(2)Π, 4(4)Π, and 3(4)Δ states, and the third well of 3(2)Σ(+) state are very weakly-bound states. The PECs are extrapolated to the CBS limit. The effect of SO coupling on the PECs is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters are evaluated, and compared with available measurements and other theoretical ones. The vibrational properties of several weakly-bound states are determined. The spectroscopic properties reported here can be expected to be reliably predicted ones.

  20. Accurate predictions of spectroscopic and molecular properties of 27 Λ-S and 73 Ω states of AsS radical

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Deheng; Song, Ziyue; Niu, Xianghong; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2016-01-01

    The PECs are calculated for the 27 Λ-S states and their corresponding 73 Ω states of AsS radical. Of these Λ-S states, only the 22Δ and 54Π states are replulsive. The 12Σ+, 22Σ+, 42Π, 34Δ, 34Σ+, and 44Π states possess double wells. The 32Σ+ state possesses three wells. The A2Π, 32Π, 12Φ, 24Π, 34Π, 24Δ, 34Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the SO coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 24Σ+, 24Σ-, 24Δ, 14Φ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states, the second wells of 12Σ+, 34Σ+, 42Π, 44Π, and 34Δ states, and the third well of 32Σ+ state are very weakly-bound states. The PECs are extrapolated to the CBS limit. The effect of SO coupling on the PECs is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters are evaluated, and compared with available measurements and other theoretical ones. The vibrational properties of several weakly-bound states are determined. The spectroscopic properties reported here can be expected to be reliably predicted ones.

  1. Uranium speciation in moorland river water samples: a comparison of experimental results and computer model predictions.

    PubMed

    Unsworth, Emily R; Jones, Phil; Cook, Jennifer M; Hill, Steve J

    2005-06-01

    An on-line method has been developed for separating inorganic and organic bound uranium species present in river water samples. The method utilised a small chelating resin (Hyphan) column incorporated into the sample introduction manifold of an ICP-MS instrument. The method was evaluated for samples from rivers on Dartmoor (Devon, UK), an area of granite overlain with peat bogs. The results indicate that organic-uranium species form a major proportion (80%) of the total dissolved uranium present. Further work with synthetic water samples indicated that the level of dissolved organic carbon played a greater role in determining the level of organic-uranium species than did sample pH. Computer models for the water samples were constructed using the WHAM program (incorporating uranium data from the Nuclear Energy Agency Thermochemical Database project) in order to predict the levels of organic-uranium species that would form. By varying the proportion of humic and fulvic acids used in the humic component, predictions within 10% of the experimental results were obtained. The program did exhibit a low bias at higher pH values (7.5) and low organic carbon concentrations (0.5 microg ml(-1)), but under the natural conditions prevalent in the Dartmoor water samples, the model predictions were successful.

  2. Endovascular Treatment of Malignant Superior Vena Cava Syndrome: Results and Predictive Factors of Clinical Efficacy

    SciTech Connect

    Fagedet, Dorothee; Thony, Frederic; Timsit, Jean-Francois; Rodiere, Mathieu; Monnin-Bares, Valerie; Ferretti, Gilbert R.; Vesin, Aurelien; Moro-Sibilot, Denis

    2013-02-15

    To demonstrate the effectiveness of endovascular treatment (EVT) with self-expandable bare stents for malignant superior vena cava syndrome (SVCS) and to analyze predictive factors of EVT efficacy. Retrospective review of the 164 patients with malignant SVCS treated with EVT in our hospital from August 1992 to December 2007 and followed until February 2009. Endovascular treatment includes angioplasty before and after stent placement. We used self-expandable bare stents. We studied results of this treatment and looked for predictive factors of clinical efficacy, recurrence, and complications by statistical analysis. Endovascular treatment was clinically successful in 95% of cases, with an acceptable rate of early mortality (2.4%). Thrombosis of the superior vena cava was the only independent factor for EVT failure. The use of stents over 16 mm in diameter was a predictive factor for complications (P = 0.008). Twenty-one complications (12.8%) occurred during the follow-up period. Relapse occurred in 36 patients (21.9%), with effective restenting in 75% of cases. Recurrence of SVCS was significantly increased in cases of occlusion (P = 0.01), initial associated thrombosis (P = 0.006), or use of steel stents (P = 0.004). Long-term anticoagulant therapy did not influence the risk of recurrence or complications. In malignancy, EVT with self-expandable bare stents is an effective SVCS therapy. These results prompt us to propose treatment with stents earlier in the clinical course of patients with SVCS and to avoid dilatation greater than 16 mm.

  3. Results and code predictions for ABCOVE aerosol code validation - Test AB5

    SciTech Connect

    Hilliard, R K; McCormack, J D; Postma, A K

    1983-11-01

    A program for aerosol behavior code validation and evaluation (ABCOVE) has been developed in accordance with the LMFBR Safety Program Plan. The ABCOVE program is a cooperative effort between the USDOE, the USNRC, and their contractor organizations currently involved in aerosol code development, testing or application. The first large-scale test in the ABCOVE program, AB5, was performed in the 850-m{sup 3} CSTF vessel using a sodium spray as the aerosol source. Seven organizations made pretest predictions of aerosol behavior using seven different computer codes (HAA-3, HAA-4, HAARM-3, QUICK, MSPEC, MAEROS and CONTAIN). Three of the codes were used by more than one user so that the effect of user input could be assessed, as well as the codes themselves. Detailed test results are presented and compared with the code predictions for eight key parameters.

  4. Predicting formaldehyde concentrations in manufactured housing resulting from medium-density fiberboard

    SciTech Connect

    Silberstein, S.

    1988-04-01

    HUD previously issued Manufactured Home Construction and Safety Standards limiting formaldehyde emissions of particleboard and plywood paneling that were manufactured using urea-formaldehyde resins for use in manufactured homes. The report uses indoor air quality models to predict how much medium-density fiberboard(mdf) may be added to manufactured homes already containing maximum loadings of particleboard and plywood paneling, without raising the formaldehyde concentration beyond 400 ppb. It was found that any combination of mdf that results in a chamber-test concentration of 300 ppb may be added to such a home. A sensitivity analysis was done to predict how this formaldehyde concentration limit is affected by variations in temperature, relative humidity, and air-exchange rate. It was concluded that limiting chamber concentrations to 200 ppb would allow for small errors in temperature, relative humidity, and air-exchange rate that might be expected to arise in practice.

  5. The Value of Accurate Magnetic Resonance Characterization of Posterior Cruciate Ligament Tears in the Setting of Multiligament Knee Injury: Imaging Features Predictive of Early Repair vs Reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Goiney, Christoper C; Porrino, Jack; Twaddle, Bruce; Richardson, Michael L; Mulcahy, Hyojeong; Chew, Felix S

    2016-01-01

    Multiligament knee injury (MLKI) represents a complex set of pathologies treated with a wide variety of surgical approaches. If early surgical intervention is performed, the disrupted posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) can be treated with primary repair or reconstruction. The purpose of our study was to retrospectively identify a critical length of the distal component of the torn PCL on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) that may predict the ability to perform early proximal femoral repair of the ligament, as opposed to reconstruction. A total of 50 MLKIs were managed at Harborview Medical Center from May 1, 2013, through July 15, 2014, by an orthopedic surgeon. Following exclusions, there were 27 knees with complete disruption of the PCL that underwent either early reattachment to the femoral insertion or reconstruction and were evaluated using preoperative MRI. In a consensus fashion, 2 radiologists measured the proximal and distal fragments of each disrupted PCL using preoperative MRI in multiple planes, as needed. MRI findings were correlated with what was performed at surgery. Those knees with a distal fragment PCL length of ≥41mm were capable of, and underwent, early proximal femoral repair. With repair, the distal stump was attached to the distal femur. Alternatively, those with a distal PCL length of ≤32mm could not undergo repair because of insufficient length and as such, were reconstructed. If early surgical intervention for an MLKI involving disruption of the PCL is considered, attention should be given to the length of the distal PCL fragment on MRI to plan appropriately for proximal femoral reattachment vs reconstruction. If the distal PCL fragment measures ≥41mm, surgical repair is achievable and can be considered as a surgical option.

  6. Frequency of yoga practice predicts health: results of a national survey of yoga practitioners.

    PubMed

    Ross, Alyson; Friedmann, Erika; Bevans, Margaret; Thomas, Sue

    2012-01-01

    Background. Yoga shows promise as a therapeutic intervention, but relationships between yoga practice and health are underexplored. Purpose. To examine the relationship between yoga practice and health (subjective well-being, diet, BMI, smoking, alcohol/caffeine consumption, sleep, fatigue, social support, mindfulness, and physical activity). Methods. Cross-sectional, anonymous internet surveys distributed to 4307 randomly selected from 18,160 individuals at 15 US Iyengar yoga studios; 1045 (24.3%) surveys completed. Results. Mean age 51.7 (± 11.7) years; 84.2% female. Frequency of home practice favorably predicted (P < .001): mindfulness, subjective well-being, BMI, fruit and vegetable consumption, vegetarian status, sleep, and fatigue. Each component of yoga practice (different categories of physical poses, breath work, meditation, philosophy study) predicted at least 1 health outcome (P < .05). Conclusions. Home practice of yoga predicted health better than years of practice or class frequency. Different physical poses and yoga techniques may have unique health benefits. PMID:22927885

  7. Predicting visual semantic descriptive terms from radiological image data: preliminary results with liver lesions in CT.

    PubMed

    Depeursinge, Adrien; Kurtz, Camille; Beaulieu, Christopher; Napel, Sandy; Rubin, Daniel

    2014-08-01

    We describe a framework to model visual semantics of liver lesions in CT images in order to predict the visual semantic terms (VST) reported by radiologists in describing these lesions. Computational models of VST are learned from image data using linear combinations of high-order steerable Riesz wavelets and support vector machines (SVM). In a first step, these models are used to predict the presence of each semantic term that describes liver lesions. In a second step, the distances between all VST models are calculated to establish a nonhierarchical computationally-derived ontology of VST containing inter-term synonymy and complementarity. A preliminary evaluation of the proposed framework was carried out using 74 liver lesions annotated with a set of 18 VSTs from the RadLex ontology. A leave-one-patient-out cross-validation resulted in an average area under the ROC curve of 0.853 for predicting the presence of each VST. The proposed framework is expected to foster human-computer synergies for the interpretation of radiological images while using rotation-covariant computational models of VSTs to 1) quantify their local likelihood and 2) explicitly link them with pixel-based image content in the context of a given imaging domain.

  8. Procalcitonin Predicts Real-Time PCR Results in Blood Samples from Patients with Suspected Sepsis

    PubMed Central

    Mencacci, Antonella; Leli, Christian; Cardaccia, Angela; Meucci, Marta; Moretti, Amedeo; D'Alò, Francesco; Farinelli, Senia; Pagliochini, Rita; Barcaccia, Mariella; Bistoni, Francesco

    2012-01-01

    Background Early diagnosis and rapid bacterial identification are of primary importance for outcome of septic patients. SeptiFast® (SF) real-time PCR assay is of potential utility in the etiological diagnosis of sepsis, but it cannot replace blood culture (BC) for routine use in clinical laboratory. Procalcitonin (PCT) is a marker of sepsis and can predict bacteremia in septic patients. The aim of the present study was to investigate whether PCT serum levels could predict SF results, and could help screening febrile patients in which a SF assay can improve the etiological diagnosis of sepsis. Methods From 1009 febrile patients with suspected sepsis, 1009 samples for BC, SF real-time PCR, and PCT determination were obtained simultaneously, and results were compared and statistically analysed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to determine the area under the curve and to identify which cut-off of PCT value produced the best sensitivity to detect SF results. Results Mean PCT values of sera drawn simultaneously with samples SF positive (35.42±61.03 ng/ml) or BC positive (23.14±51.56 ng/ml) for a pathogen were statistically higher than those drawn simultaneously with SF negative (0.84±1.67 ng/ml) or BC negative (2.79±16.64 ng/ml) samples (p<0.0001). For SF, ROC analysis showed an area under the curve of 0.927 (95% confidence interval: 0.899–0.955, p<0.0001). The PCT cut-off value of 0.37 ng/ml showed a negative predictive value of 99%, reducing the number of SF assays of 53.9%, still identifying the 96.4% of the pathogens. Conclusion PCT can be used in febrile patients with suspected sepsis to predict SF positive or negative results. A cut-off value of 0.37 ng/ml can be considered for optimal sensitivity, so that, in the routine laboratory activity, SF assay should not be used for diagnosis of sepsis in an unselected patient population with a PCT value <0.37 ng/ml. PMID:23300907

  9. Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions for the Pliocene (Plio-QUMP): Initial results

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Pope, J.O.; Collins, M.; Haywood, A.M.; Dowsett, H.J.; Hunter, S.J.; Lunt, D.J.; Pickering, S.J.; Pound, M.J.

    2011-01-01

    Examination of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~. 3.3 to 3.0. Ma BP) provides an excellent opportunity to test the ability of climate models to reproduce warm climate states, thereby assessing our confidence in model predictions. To do this it is necessary to relate the uncertainty in model simulations of mPWP climate to uncertainties in projections of future climate change. The uncertainties introduced by the model can be estimated through the use of a Perturbed Physics Ensemble (PPE). Developing on the UK Met Office Quantifying Uncertainty in Model Predictions (QUMP) Project, this paper presents the results from an initial investigation using the end members of a PPE in a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model (HadCM3) running with appropriate mPWP boundary conditions. Prior work has shown that the unperturbed version of HadCM3 may underestimate mPWP sea surface temperatures at higher latitudes. Initial results indicate that neither the low sensitivity nor the high sensitivity simulations produce unequivocally improved mPWP climatology relative to the standard. Whilst the high sensitivity simulation was able to reconcile up to 6 ??C of the data/model mismatch in sea surface temperatures in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (relative to the standard simulation), it did not produce a better prediction of global vegetation than the standard simulation. Overall the low sensitivity simulation was degraded compared to the standard and high sensitivity simulations in all aspects of the data/model comparison. The results have shown that a PPE has the potential to explore weaknesses in mPWP modelling simulations which have been identified by geological proxies, but that a 'best fit' simulation will more likely come from a full ensemble in which simulations that contain the strengths of the two end member simulations shown here are combined. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

  10. Experimental results and wear predictions of petal tools that freely rotate.

    PubMed

    Cordero-Dávila, Alberto; Cabrera-Peláez, Víctor; Cuautle-Cortés, Jorge; González-García, Jorge; Robledo-Sánchez, Carlos; Bautista-Elivar, Nazario

    2005-03-10

    It is difficult to calculate the wear produced by free-pinned tools because their angular movement is not entirely predictable. We analyze the wear produced with free-pinned ring tools, using both simulations and experiments. We conclude that the wear of an incomplete ring is directly proportional to the ring's angular size, independently of the mean radius of the ring. We present an algorithm for calculation of the wear produced by free-pinned petal tools, as they can be considered a linear combination of incomplete free-pinned ring tools. Finally, we apply this result to the enhancement of a defective flat surface and to making a concave spheric surface.

  11. Video Guidance Sensor: Optical Performance Predictions and Results from STS-95 Experiment

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Jackson, John L.; Cole, Helen J.; Howard, Richard T.

    1999-01-01

    The Video Guidance Sensor is a key component of NASA's Automated Rendezvous & Capture Program. The Video Guidance Sensor Uses laser illumination of a passive target in the field of view of an on-board camera and signal processor to determine the relative position and attitude between the target and sensor. The Video Guidance Sensor flew on space shuttle mission STS-95 in November of 1998 and was a marked success. Comparisons of experimental results from that mission and theoretical models predicting the optical performance will be discussed.

  12. Accurate theoretical prediction of vibrational frequencies in an inhomogeneous dynamic environment: A case study of a glutamate molecule in water solution and in a protein-bound form

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Speranskiy, Kirill; Kurnikova, Maria

    2004-07-01

    We propose a hierarchical approach to model vibrational frequencies of a ligand in a strongly fluctuating inhomogeneous environment such as a liquid solution or when bound to a macromolecule, e.g., a protein. Vibrational frequencies typically measured experimentally are ensemble averaged quantities which result (in part) from the influence of the strongly fluctuating solvent. Solvent fluctuations can be sampled effectively by a classical molecular simulation, which in our model serves as the first, low level of the hierarchy. At the second high level of the hierarchy a small subset of system coordinates is used to construct a patch of the potential surface (ab initio) relevant to the vibration in question. This subset of coordinates is under the influence of an instantaneous external force exerted by the environment. The force is calculated at the lower level of the hierarchy. The proposed methodology is applied to model vibrational frequencies of a glutamate in water and when bound to the Glutamate receptor protein and its mutant. Our results are in close agreement with the experimental values and frequency shifts measured by the Jayaraman group by the Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy [Q. Cheng et al., Biochem. 41, 1602 (2002)]. Our methodology proved useful in successfully reproducing vibrational frequencies of a ligand in such a soft, flexible, and strongly inhomogeneous protein as the Glutamate receptor.

  13. Low power underwater acoustic DPSK detection: Theoretical prediction and experimental results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dunne, Andrew

    This thesis presents two methods of analyzing the effectiveness of a prototype differential phase-shift keying (DPSK) detection circuit. The first method is to make modifications to the existing hardware to reliably output and record the cross-correlation values of the DPSK detection process. The second method is to write a MATLAB detection algorithm which accurately simulates the detection results of the hardware system without the need of any electronics. These two systems were tested and verified with a bench test using computer generated DPSK signals. The hardware system was tested using real acoustic data from shallow and deep water at-sea tests to determine the effectiveness of the DPSK detection circuit in different ocean environments. The hydrophone signals from the tests were recorded so that the cross-correlation values could be verified using the MATLAB detector. As a result of this study, these two systems provided more insight into how well the DPSK detection prototype works and helped to identify ways of improving the detection reliability and overall performance of the prototype DPSK detection circuit.

  14. Predicting Heavy Drug Use. Results of a Longitudinal Study, Youth Characteristics Describing and Predicting Heavy Drug Use by Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schildhaus, Sam; Shaw-Taylor, Yoku; Pedlow, Steven; Pergamit, Michael R.

    2004-01-01

    The primary aim of this study was to describe the movement of adolescents and young adults into and out of drug use and to predict heavy drug use. The data source is the Department of Labor's National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, which began in 1979 with a sample of 12,686 adolescents aged 14-21. After 17 rounds and 19 years, the response rate in…

  15. Prediction of high level vibration test results by use of available inelastic analysis techniques

    SciTech Connect

    Hofmayer, C.H.; Park, Y.J. ); Costello, J.F. )

    1991-01-01

    As part of a cooperative study between the United States and Japan, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry of Japan agreed to perform a test program that would subject a large scale piping model to significant plastic strains under excitation conditions much greater than the design condition for nuclear power plants. The objective was to compare the results of the tests with state-of-the-art analyses. Comparisons were done at different excitation levels from elastic to elastic-plastic to levels where cracking was induced in the test model. The program was called the high Level Vibration Test (HLVT). The HLVT was performed on the seismic table at the Tadotsu Engineering Laboratory of Nuclear Power Engineering Test Center in Japan. The test model was constructed by modifying the 1/2.5 scale model of one loop of a PWR primary coolant system which was previously tested by NUPEC as part of their seismic proving test program. A comparison of various analysis techniques with test results shows a higher prediction error in the detailed strain values than in the overall response values. This prediction error is magnified as the plasticity in the test model increases. There is no significant difference in the peak responses between the simplified and the detailed analyses. A comparison between various detailed finite element model runs indicates that the material properties and plasticity modeling have a significant impact on the plastic strain responses under dynamic loading reversals. 5 refs., 12 figs.

  16. A new algorithm for predicting triplet-triplet energy-transfer activated complex coordinate in terms of accurate potential-energy surfaces

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Frutos, Luis Manuel; Castaño, Obis

    2005-09-01

    The new algorithm presented here allows, for the first time, the determination of the optimal geometrical distortions that an acceptor molecule in the triplet-triplet energy-transfer process undergoes, as well as the dependence of the activation energy of the process on the triplet energy difference of donor and acceptor molecules. This algorithm makes use of the complete potential-energy surfaces (singlet and triplet states), and contrasts with the first-order approximation already published [L. M. Frutos, O. Castaño, J. L. Andrés, M. Merchán, and A. U. Acuña, J. Chem. Phys. 120, 1208 (2004)] in which an expansion of the potential-energy surfaces was used. This algorithm is gradient based and finds the best trajectory for the acceptor molecule, starting from S0 ground-state equilibrium geometry, to achieve the maximum variation of the singlet-triplet energy gap with the minimum energy of activation on S0. Therefore, the algorithm allows the determination of a "reaction path" for the triplet-triplet energy-transfer processes. Also, the algorithm could also serve eventually to find minimum-energy crossing (singlet-triplet) points on the potential-energy surface, which can play an important role in the intersystem crossing process for the acceptor molecules to recover their initial capacity as acceptors. Also addressed is the misleading use of minimum-energy paths in T1 to describe the energy-transfer process by comparing these results with those obtained using the new algorithm. The implementation of the algorithm is illustrated with different potential-energy surface models and it is discussed in the frame of nonvertical behavior.

  17. Single-photon excitation of K α in heliumlike Kr34 +: Results supporting quantum electrodynamics predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Epp, S. W.; Steinbrügge, R.; Bernitt, S.; Rudolph, J. K.; Beilmann, C.; Bekker, H.; Müller, A.; Versolato, O. O.; Wille, H.-C.; Yavaş, H.; Ullrich, J.; Crespo López-Urrutia, J. R.

    2015-08-01

    We study two fundamental transitions from the ground state S10 to P11 (w line) and P31 (y line) in heliumlike Kr34 + by resonant single-photon excitation using an electron-beam ion trap and monochromatic x rays at PETRA III. Our results for the transition energies E (w )=13 114.47 (14 ) eV and E (y )=13 026.15 (14 ) eV are in excellent agreement with quantum electrodynamics calculations, but disagree for w with the average of the hitherto reported experimental results E¯Lit(w ) =13 115.15 (17 ) eV. Independently of any energy calibration, we obtain a value E (w )/E (y )=1.006 780 (7 ) , also in consistency with predictions.

  18. Predicting mosaics and wildlife diversity resulting from fire disturbance to a forest ecosystem

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Potter, Meredith W.; Kessell, Stephen R.

    1980-05-01

    A model for predicting community mosaics and wildlife diversity resulting from fire disturbance to a forest ecosystem is presented. It applies an algorithm that delineates the size and shape of each patch from grid-based input data and calculates standard diversity measures for the entire mosaic of community patches and their included animal species. The user can print these diversity calculations, maps of the current community-type-age-class mosaic, and maps of habitat utilization by each animal species. Furthermore, the user can print estimates of changes in each resulting from natural disturbance. Although data and resolution level independent, the model is demonstrated and tested with data from the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana.

  19. Do accurate HIV and antiretroviral therapy knowledge, and previous testing experiences increase the uptake of HIV voluntary counselling and testing? Results from a cohort study in rural Tanzania

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Despite the introduction of free antiretroviral therapy (ART), the use of voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) services remains persistently low in many African countries. This study investigates how prior experience of HIV and VCT, and knowledge about HIV and ART influence VCT use in rural Tanzania. Methods In 2006–7, VCT was offered to study participants during the fifth survey round of an HIV community cohort study that includes HIV testing for research purposes without results disclosure, and a questionnaire covering knowledge, attitudes and practices around HIV infection and HIV services. Categorical variables were created for HIV knowledge and ART knowledge, with “good” HIV and ART knowledge defined as correctly answering at least 4/6 and 5/7 questions about HIV and ART respectively. Experience of HIV was defined as knowing people living with HIV, or having died from AIDS. Logistic regression methods were used to assess how HIV and ART knowledge, and prior experiences of HIV and VCT were associated with VCT uptake, with adjustment for HIV status and socio-demographic confounders. Results 2,695/3,886 (69%) men and 2,708/5,575 women (49%) had “good” HIV knowledge, while 613/3,886 (16%) men and 585/5575 (10%) women had “good” ART knowledge. Misconceptions about HIV transmission were common, including through kissing (55% of women, 43% of men), or mosquito bites (42% of women, 34% of men). 19% of men and 16% of women used VCT during the survey. After controlling for HIV status and socio-demographic factors, the odds of VCT use were lower among those with poor HIV knowledge (aOR = 0.5; p = 0.01 for men and aOR = 0.6; p < 0.01 for women) and poor ART knowledge (aOR = 0.8; p = 0.06 for men, aOR = 0.8; p < 0.01 for women), and higher among those with HIV experience (aOR = 1.3 for men and aOR = 1.6 for women, p < 0.01) and positive prior VCT experience (aOR = 2.0 for all men and aOR = 2

  20. Granular Activated Carbon Treatment May Result in Higher Predicted Genotoxicity in the Presence of Bromide.

    PubMed

    Krasner, Stuart W; Lee, Tiffany Chih Fen; Westerhoff, Paul; Fischer, Natalia; Hanigan, David; Karanfil, Tanju; Beita-Sandí, Wilson; Taylor-Edmonds, Liz; Andrews, Robert C

    2016-09-01

    Certain unregulated disinfection byproducts (DBPs) are more of a health concern than regulated DBPs. Brominated species are typically more cytotoxic and genotoxic than their chlorinated analogs. The impact of granular activated carbon (GAC) on controlling the formation of regulated and selected unregulated DBPs following chlorine disinfection was evaluated. The predicted cyto- and genotoxicity of DBPs was calculated using published potencies based on the comet assay for Chinese hamster ovary cells (assesses the level of DNA strand breaks). Additionally, genotoxicity was measured using the SOS-Chromotest (detects DNA-damaging agents). The class sum concentrations of trihalomethanes, haloacetic acids, and unregulated DBPs, and the SOS genotoxicity followed the breakthrough of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), however the formation of brominated species did not. The bromide/DOC ratio was higher than the influent through much of the breakthrough curve (GAC does not remove bromide), which resulted in elevated brominated DBP concentrations in the effluent. Based on the potency of the haloacetonitriles and halonitromethanes, these nitrogen-containing DBPs were the driving agents of the predicted genotoxicity. GAC treatment of drinking or reclaimed waters with appreciable levels of bromide and dissolved organic nitrogen may not control the formation of unregulated DBPs with higher genotoxicity potencies. PMID:27467860

  1. Can clinical colour vision tests be used to predict the results of the Farnsworth lantern test?

    PubMed

    Cole, B L; Maddocks, J D

    1998-11-01

    Clinicians usually do not have access to a lantern test when making an occupational assessment of the ability of a person with defective colour vision to recognise signal light colours: they must rely on the results of ordinary clinical tests. While all colour vision defectives fail the Holmes Wright Type B lantern test and most fail the Holmes Wright Type A lantern, 35% of colour vision defectives pass the Farnsworth lantern. Can clinical tests predict who will pass and fail the Farnsworth lantern? We find that a pass (less than two or more diametrical crossings) at the Farnsworth Panel D 15 Dichotomous test has a sensitivity of 0.67 and specificity of 0.94 in predicting a pass or fail at the Farnsworth lantern test: a Nagel range of > 10 has a sensitivity of 0.87 and a specificity of 0.57. We conclude that neither the D 15 nor the Nagel Anomaloscope matching range are satisfactory predictors of performance on the Farnsworth Lantern.

  2. Pericenter precession induced by a circumstellar disk on the orbit of massive bodies: comparison between analytical predictions and numerical results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fontana, A.; Marzari, F.

    2016-05-01

    Context. Planetesimals and planets embedded in a circumstellar disk are dynamically perturbed by the disk gravity. It causes an apsidal line precession at a rate that depends on the disk density profile and on the distance of the massive body from the star. Aims: Different analytical models are exploited to compute the precession rate of the perihelion ϖ˙. We compare them to verify their equivalence, in particular after analytical manipulations performed to derive handy formulas, and test their predictions against numerical models in some selected cases. Methods: The theoretical precession rates were computed with analytical algorithms found in the literature using the Mathematica symbolic code, while the numerical simulations were performed with the hydrodynamical code FARGO. Results: For low-mass bodies (planetesimals) the analytical approaches described in Binney & Tremaine (2008, Galactic Dynamics, p. 96), Ward (1981, Icarus, 47, 234), and Silsbee & Rafikov (2015a, ApJ, 798, 71) are equivalent under the same initial conditions for the disk in terms of mass, density profile, and inner and outer borders. They also match the numerical values computed with FARGO away from the outer border of the disk reasonably well. On the other hand, the predictions of the classical Mestel disk (Mestel 1963, MNRAS, 126, 553) for disks with p = 1 significantly depart from the numerical solution for radial distances beyond one-third of the disk extension because of the underlying assumption of the Mestel disk is that the outer disk border is equal to infinity. For massive bodies such as terrestrial and giant planets, the agreement of the analytical approaches is progressively poorer because of the changes in the disk structure that are induced by the planet gravity. For giant planets the precession rate changes sign and is higher than the modulus of the theoretical value by a factor ranging from 1.5 to 1.8. In this case, the correction of the formula proposed by Ward (1981) to

  3. Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

    SciTech Connect

    Blaise Collin

    2014-09-01

    Safety tests were conducted on fourteen fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800°C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during the safety tests, and the predicted values were compared with experimental results. Preliminary comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination (PIE) results of the safety tests show different trends in the prediction of the fractional release depending on the species, and it leads to different conclusions regarding the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles: • For silver, the diffusivity in silicon carbide (SiC) might be over-estimated by a factor of at least 102 to 103 at 1600°C and 1700°C, and at least 10 to 102 at 1800°C. The diffusivity of silver in uranium oxy-carbide (UCO) might also be over-estimated, but the available data are insufficient to allow definitive conclusions to be drawn. • For cesium, the diffusivity in UCO might be over-estimated by a factor of at least 102 to 103 at 1600°C, 105 at 1700°C, and 103 at 1800°C. The diffusivity of cesium in SiC might also over-estimated, by a factor of 10 at 1600°C and 103 at 1700°C, based upon the comparisons between calculated and measured release fractions from intact particles. There is no available estimate at 1800°C since all the compacts heated up at 1800°C contain particles with failed SiC layers whose release dominates the release from intact particles. • For strontium, the diffusivity in SiC might be over-estimated by a factor of 10 to 102 at 1600 and 1700°C, and 102 to 103 at 1800°C. These

  4. Predicting saturated hydraulic conductivity from percolation test results in layered silt loam soils.

    PubMed

    Jabro, Jay D

    2009-12-01

    The objectives of the study discussed in this article were to develop an empirical relationship between the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) of layered soils and their percolation times (PT) in order to understand the influence of individual layers and compare this with the equations developed by Winneberger (1974) and Fritton, Ratvasky, and Petersen (1986). Field research was conducted on three silt loam soils. Six holes were spaced evenly in two parallel rows of three holes. The Ks was measured at three different layers for each soil using a constant head well permeameter. After completion of the second Ks measurement, the percolation test was conducted. Three linear equations for the upper, middle, and lower layers were developed between the Ks values of each individual layer in all three sites and the corresponding PT. Significant differences were found between the author's results and those predicted by Winneberger (1974) and Fritton and co-authors (1986). PMID:20063609

  5. Thermal annealing as a method to predict results of high temperature irradiation embrittlement

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kryukov, A.; Debarberis, L.; Hähner, P.; Gillemot, F.; Oszvald, F.

    2013-01-01

    In order to assess the validity of post-irradiation annealing as a method to predict results of high temperature irradiation a new analysis of experimental data has been performed revealing the combined influence of annealing temperature and impurities content on residual embrittlement after annealing. For 2CrMoV (WWER-440 reactor pressure vessel) steel with low contents of copper and phosphorus, the comparison of two embrittlement dependencies has been done: on irradiation temperature and post-irradiation annealing temperature. It is demonstrated that data for both the transition temperature shift after irradiation, ΔTk, and the residual transition temperature shift after post-irradiation annealing, ΔTres, fall within the same scatter band. A similarly close correlation is observed by comparison of yield strength increases after irradiation and after post-irradiation annealing.

  6. Diagnostic Accuracy of Procalcitonin for Predicting Blood Culture Results in Patients With Suspected Bloodstream Infection

    PubMed Central

    Oussalah, Abderrahim; Ferrand, Janina; Filhine-Tresarrieu, Pierre; Aissa, Nejla; Aimone-Gastin, Isabelle; Namour, Fares; Garcia, Matthieu; Lozniewski, Alain; Guéant, Jean-Louis

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Previous studies have suggested that procalcitonin is a reliable marker for predicting bacteremia. However, these studies have had relatively small sample sizes or focused on a single clinical entity. The primary endpoint of this study was to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of procalcitonin for predicting or excluding clinically relevant pathogen categories in patients with suspected bloodstream infections. The secondary endpoint was to look for organisms significantly associated with internationally validated procalcitonin intervals. We performed a cross-sectional study that included 35,343 consecutive patients who underwent concomitant procalcitonin assays and blood cultures for suspected bloodstream infections. Biochemical and microbiological data were systematically collected in an electronic database and extracted for purposes of this study. Depending on blood culture results, patients were classified into 1 of the 5 following groups: negative blood culture, Gram-positive bacteremia, Gram-negative bacteremia, fungi, and potential contaminants found in blood cultures (PCBCs). The highest procalcitonin concentration was observed in patients with blood cultures growing Gram-negative bacteria (median 2.2 ng/mL [IQR 0.6–12.2]), and the lowest procalcitonin concentration was observed in patients with negative blood cultures (median 0.3 ng/mL [IQR 0.1–1.1]). With optimal thresholds ranging from ≤0.4 to ≤0.75 ng/mL, procalcitonin had a high diagnostic accuracy for excluding all pathogen categories with the following negative predictive values: Gram-negative bacteria (98.9%) (including enterobacteria [99.2%], nonfermenting Gram-negative bacilli [99.7%], and anaerobic bacteria [99.9%]), Gram-positive bacteria (98.4%), and fungi (99.6%). A procalcitonin concentration ≥10 ng/mL was associated with a high risk of Gram-negative (odds ratio 5.98; 95% CI, 5.20–6.88) or Gram-positive (odds ratio 3.64; 95% CI, 3.11–4.26) bacteremia but

  7. Motion effects on an IFR hovering task: Analytical predictions and experimental results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ringland, R. F.; Stapleford, R. L.; Magdaleno, R. E.

    1971-01-01

    An analytical pilot model incorporating the effects of motion cues and display scanning and sampling is tested by comparing predictions against experimental results on a moving base simulator. The simulated task is that of precision hovering of a VTOL having varying amounts of rate damping, and using separated instrument displays. Motion cue effects are investigated by running the experiment under fixed and moving base conditions, the latter in two modes; full motion, and angular motion only. Display scanning behavior is measured on some of the runs. The results of the program show that performance is best with angular motion only, most probably because a g-vector tilt cue is available to the pilot in this motion condition. This provides an attitude indication even when not visually fixating the attitude display. Vestibular threshold effects are also present in the results because of the display scaling used to permit hovering position control within the motion simulator limits; no washouts are used in the simulator drive signals. The IFR nature of the task results in large decrements in pilot opinion and performance relative to VFR conditions because of the scanning workload. Measurements of scanning behavior are sensitive to motion conditions and show more attention to attitude control under fixed base conditions.

  8. Predicting Visual Semantic Descriptive Terms from Radiological Image Data: Preliminary Results with Liver Lesions in CT

    PubMed Central

    Depeursinge, Adrien; Kurtz, Camille; Beaulieu, Christopher F.; Napel, Sandy; Rubin, Daniel L.

    2014-01-01

    We describe a framework to model visual semantics of liver lesions in CT images in order to predict the visual semantic terms (VST) reported by radiologists in describing these lesions. Computational models of VST are learned from image data using high–order steerable Riesz wavelets and support vector machines (SVM). The organization of scales and directions that are specific to every VST are modeled as linear combinations of directional Riesz wavelets. The models obtained are steerable, which means that any orientation of the model can be synthesized from linear combinations of the basis filters. The latter property is leveraged to model VST independently from their local orientation. In a first step, these models are used to predict the presence of each semantic term that describes liver lesions. In a second step, the distances between all VST models are calculated to establish a non–hierarchical computationally–derived ontology of VST containing inter–term synonymy and complementarity. A preliminary evaluation of the proposed framework was carried out using 74 liver lesions annotated with a set of 18 VSTs from the RadLex ontology. A leave–one–patient–out cross–validation resulted in an average area under the ROC curve of 0.853 for predicting the presence of each VST when using SVMs in a feature space combining the magnitudes of the steered models with CT intensities. Likelihood maps are created for each VST, which enables high transparency of the information modeled. The computationally–derived ontology obtained from the VST models was found to be consistent with the underlying semantics of the visual terms. It was found to be complementary to the RadLex ontology, and constitutes a potential method to link the image content to visual semantics. The proposed framework is expected to foster human–computer synergies for the interpretation of radiological images while using rotation–covariant computational models of VSTs to (1) quantify their

  9. Temperature Fields in Soft Tissue during LPUS Treatment: Numerical Prediction and Experiment Results

    SciTech Connect

    Kujawska, Tamara; Wojcik, Janusz; Nowicki, Andrzej

    2010-03-09

    Recent research has shown that beneficial therapeutic effects in soft tissues can be induced by the low power ultrasound (LPUS). For example, increasing of cells immunity to stress (among others thermal stress) can be obtained through the enhanced heat shock proteins (Hsp) expression induced by the low intensity ultrasound. The possibility to control the Hsp expression enhancement in soft tissues in vivo stimulated by ultrasound can be the potential new therapeutic approach to the neurodegenerative diseases which utilizes the known feature of cells to increase their immunity to stresses through the Hsp expression enhancement. The controlling of the Hsp expression enhancement by adjusting of exposure level to ultrasound energy would allow to evaluate and optimize the ultrasound-mediated treatment efficiency. Ultrasonic regimes are controlled by adjusting the pulsed ultrasound waves intensity, frequency, duration, duty cycle and exposure time. Our objective was to develop the numerical model capable of predicting in space and time temperature fields induced by a circular focused transducer generating tone bursts in multilayer nonlinear attenuating media and to compare the numerically calculated results with the experimental data in vitro. The acoustic pressure field in multilayer biological media was calculated using our original numerical solver. For prediction of temperature fields the Pennes' bio-heat transfer equation was employed. Temperature field measurements in vitro were carried out in a fresh rat liver using the 15 mm diameter, 25 mm focal length and 2 MHz central frequency transducer generating tone bursts with the spatial peak temporal average acoustic intensity varied between 0.325 and 1.95 W/cm{sup 2}, duration varied from 20 to 500 cycles at the same 20% duty cycle and the exposure time varied up to 20 minutes. The measurement data were compared with numerical simulation results obtained under experimental boundary conditions. Good agreement between

  10. Temperature Fields in Soft Tissue during LPUS Treatment: Numerical Prediction and Experiment Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kujawska, Tamara; Wójcik, Janusz; Nowicki, Andrzej

    2010-03-01

    Recent research has shown that beneficial therapeutic effects in soft tissues can be induced by the low power ultrasound (LPUS). For example, increasing of cells immunity to stress (among others thermal stress) can be obtained through the enhanced heat shock proteins (Hsp) expression induced by the low intensity ultrasound. The possibility to control the Hsp expression enhancement in soft tissues in vivo stimulated by ultrasound can be the potential new therapeutic approach to the neurodegenerative diseases which utilizes the known feature of cells to increase their immunity to stresses through the Hsp expression enhancement. The controlling of the Hsp expression enhancement by adjusting of exposure level to ultrasound energy would allow to evaluate and optimize the ultrasound-mediated treatment efficiency. Ultrasonic regimes are controlled by adjusting the pulsed ultrasound waves intensity, frequency, duration, duty cycle and exposure time. Our objective was to develop the numerical model capable of predicting in space and time temperature fields induced by a circular focused transducer generating tone bursts in multilayer nonlinear attenuating media and to compare the numerically calculated results with the experimental data in vitro. The acoustic pressure field in multilayer biological media was calculated using our original numerical solver. For prediction of temperature fields the Pennes' bio-heat transfer equation was employed. Temperature field measurements in vitro were carried out in a fresh rat liver using the 15 mm diameter, 25 mm focal length and 2 MHz central frequency transducer generating tone bursts with the spatial peak temporal average acoustic intensity varied between 0.325 and 1.95 W/cm2, duration varied from 20 to 500 cycles at the same 20% duty cycle and the exposure time varied up to 20 minutes. The measurement data were compared with numerical simulation results obtained under experimental boundary conditions. Good agreement between the

  11. Cardiometabolic risk factors predict cerebrovascular health in older adults: results from the Brain in Motion study.

    PubMed

    Tyndall, Amanda V; Argourd, Laurie; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Davenport, Margie H; Forbes, Scott C; Gill, Stephanie J; Parboosingh, Jillian S; Anderson, Todd J; Wilson, Ben J; Smith, Eric E; Hogan, David B; Hill, Michael D; Poulin, Marc J

    2016-04-01

    Aging and physical inactivity are associated with an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MetS). With the rising prevalence of MetS, it is important to determine the extent to which it affects cerebrovascular health. The primary purpose of this report is to examine the impact of MetS on cerebrovascular health (resting cerebral blood flow (CBF) peak velocity (V¯P), cerebrovascular conductance (CVC), and CBF responses to hypercapnia) in healthy older adults with normal cognition. A secondary goal was to examine the influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 expression on these indices. In a sample of 258 healthy men and women older than 53 years, 29.1% met criteria for MetS. MetS, sex, and age were found to be significant predictors of CVC, and V¯P, MetS, and APOE status were significant predictors of V¯P-reactivity, and CVC-reactivity was best predicted by MetS status. After controlling for these factors, participants with MetS demonstrated lower cerebrovascular measures (CVC, V¯P, CVC-reactivity, and V¯P-reactivity) compared to participants without MetS. APOE ε4 carriers had higher V¯P-reactivity than noncarriers. These results provide evidence that cardiometabolic and vascular risk factors clustered together as the MetS predict measures of cerebrovascular health indices in older adults. Higher V¯P-reactivity in APOE ε4 carriers suggests vascular compensation for deleterious effects of this known risk allele for Alzheimer's disease and stroke. PMID:27117804

  12. Analyzing model uncertainty in predicted surface fluxes resulting from prescribed soil and vegetation parameters

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jankov, M.; Prochaka, L.; Mölders, N.

    2003-12-01

    The atmosphere and land-surface continuously interact, for which the surface affects current weather and climate. The biosphere-soil system plays an important role because it is the media in those interactions. The processes that describe those interactions are the exchange of momentuum, heat, water vapor, and matter. To include these processes at the soil-biosphere-atmosphere interface in atmospheric models they have to be parameterized. The different vegetation and soil types are realized by prescribed plant physiological and soil physical parameters (e.g. soil hydraulic conductivity, soil thermal conductivity, porosity, pore-size distribution index, leaf area index, albedo and emissivity of the foliage and soil, minimum stomatal resistance, canopy height, etc.) in these parameterizations. The parameters can vary even among the same soil or plant type. The order of magnitude of those variations can be as much as the mean values of the parameters themselves. In order to improve weather prediction the model uncertainty, caused by the necessity to prescribe parameters, has to be minimized. To asses the errors uncertainty analysis with respect to the prescribed parameters is carried out using the Gaussian Error Propagation method. We use the PennState/NCAR mesoscale meteorological model MM5 coupled with the Oregon State University land surface model (OSULSM) as the test-platform. The Gaussian Error Propagation technique provides error bars for the fluxes simulated by MM5. Moreover, the technique can point out which parameters contribute the most to the error, and should be replaced in future model development. Our preliminary results show that throughout the domain errors were at low or moderate levels. The highest errors predicted appear to be associated with scarcely vegetated, sandy clay loam areas and areas covered by ice and snow.

  13. Cardiometabolic risk factors predict cerebrovascular health in older adults: results from the Brain in Motion study.

    PubMed

    Tyndall, Amanda V; Argourd, Laurie; Sajobi, Tolulope T; Davenport, Margie H; Forbes, Scott C; Gill, Stephanie J; Parboosingh, Jillian S; Anderson, Todd J; Wilson, Ben J; Smith, Eric E; Hogan, David B; Hill, Michael D; Poulin, Marc J

    2016-04-01

    Aging and physical inactivity are associated with an increased risk of developing metabolic syndrome (MetS). With the rising prevalence of MetS, it is important to determine the extent to which it affects cerebrovascular health. The primary purpose of this report is to examine the impact of MetS on cerebrovascular health (resting cerebral blood flow (CBF) peak velocity (V¯P), cerebrovascular conductance (CVC), and CBF responses to hypercapnia) in healthy older adults with normal cognition. A secondary goal was to examine the influence of apolipoprotein E (APOE) ε4 expression on these indices. In a sample of 258 healthy men and women older than 53 years, 29.1% met criteria for MetS. MetS, sex, and age were found to be significant predictors of CVC, and V¯P, MetS, and APOE status were significant predictors of V¯P-reactivity, and CVC-reactivity was best predicted by MetS status. After controlling for these factors, participants with MetS demonstrated lower cerebrovascular measures (CVC, V¯P, CVC-reactivity, and V¯P-reactivity) compared to participants without MetS. APOE ε4 carriers had higher V¯P-reactivity than noncarriers. These results provide evidence that cardiometabolic and vascular risk factors clustered together as the MetS predict measures of cerebrovascular health indices in older adults. Higher V¯P-reactivity in APOE ε4 carriers suggests vascular compensation for deleterious effects of this known risk allele for Alzheimer's disease and stroke.

  14. Prediction of full-scale dewatering results of sewage sludges by the physical water distribution.

    PubMed

    Kopp, J; Dichtl, N

    2001-01-01

    The dewaterability of sewage sludge can be described by the total solids concentration of the sludge cake and the polymer-demand for conditioning. The total solids concentration of the sludge cake depends on the physical water distribution. The various types of water in sewage sludge are mainly distinguished by the type and the intensity of their physical bonding to the solids. In a sewage sludge suspension four different types of water can be distinguished. These are the free water, which is not bound to the particles, the interstitial water, which is bound by capillary forces between the sludge flocs, the surface water, which is bound by adhesive forces and intracellular water. Only the share of free water can be separated during mechanical dewatering. It can be shown, that by thermo-gravimeteric measurement of the free water content, an exact prediction of full-scale dewatering results is possible. By separation of all free water during centrifugation the maximum dewatering result is reached. Polymer conditioning increases the velocity of the sludge water release, but the free water content is not influenced by this process. Furthermore it is not possible, to replace the measuring of the water distribution by other individual parameters such as ignition loss.

  15. NNLOPS accurate associated HW production

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Astill, William; Bizon, Wojciech; Re, Emanuele; Zanderighi, Giulia

    2016-06-01

    We present a next-to-next-to-leading order accurate description of associated HW production consistently matched to a parton shower. The method is based on reweighting events obtained with the HW plus one jet NLO accurate calculation implemented in POWHEG, extended with the MiNLO procedure, to reproduce NNLO accurate Born distributions. Since the Born kinematics is more complex than the cases treated before, we use a parametrization of the Collins-Soper angles to reduce the number of variables required for the reweighting. We present phenomenological results at 13 TeV, with cuts suggested by the Higgs Cross section Working Group.

  16. Small Engine Technology (SET) - Task 13 ANOPP Noise Prediction for Small Engines: Jet Noise Prediction Module, Wing Shielding Module, and System Studies Results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lieber, Lysbeth; Golub, Robert (Technical Monitor)

    2000-01-01

    This Final Report has been prepared by AlliedSignal Engines and Systems, Phoenix, Arizona, documenting work performed during the period May 1997 through June 1999, under the Small Engines Technology Program, Contract No. NAS3-27483, Task Order 13, ANOPP Noise Prediction for Small Engines. The report specifically covers the work performed under Subtasks 4, 5 and 6. Subtask 4 describes the application of a semi-empirical procedure for jet noise prediction, subtask 5 describes the development of a procedure to predict the effects of wing shielding, and subtask 6 describes the results of system studies of the benefits of the new noise technology on business and regional aircraft.

  17. Colloid filtration in surface dense vegetation: experimental results and theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Wu, Lei; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Gao, Bin; Yang, Wen; Pachepsky, Yakov A

    2014-04-01

    Understanding colloid and colloid-facilitated contaminant transport in overland flow through dense vegetation is important to protect water quality in the environment, especially for water bodies receiving agricultural and urban runoff. In previous studies, a single-stem efficiency theory for rigid and clean stem systems was developed to predict colloid filtration by plant stems of vegetation in laminar overland flow. Hence, in order to improve the accuracy of the single-stem efficiency theory to real dense vegetation system, we incorporated the effect of natural organic matter (NOM) on the filtration of colloids by stems. Laboratory dense vegetation flow chamber experiments and model simulations were used to determine the kinetic deposition (filtration) rate of colloids under various conditions. The results show that, in addition to flow hydrodynamics and solution chemistry, steric repulsion afforded by NOM layer on the plants stem surface also plays a significant role in controlling colloid deposition on vegetation in overland flow. For the first time, a refined single-stem efficiency theory with considerations of the NOM effect is developed that describes the experimental data with good accuracy. This theory can be used to not only help construct and refine mathematical models of colloid transport in real vegetation systems in overland flow, but also inform the development of theories of colloid deposition on NOM-coated surfaces in natural, engineered, and biomedical systems.

  18. Colloid filtration in surface dense vegetation: experimental results and theoretical predictions.

    PubMed

    Wu, Lei; Muñoz-Carpena, Rafael; Gao, Bin; Yang, Wen; Pachepsky, Yakov A

    2014-04-01

    Understanding colloid and colloid-facilitated contaminant transport in overland flow through dense vegetation is important to protect water quality in the environment, especially for water bodies receiving agricultural and urban runoff. In previous studies, a single-stem efficiency theory for rigid and clean stem systems was developed to predict colloid filtration by plant stems of vegetation in laminar overland flow. Hence, in order to improve the accuracy of the single-stem efficiency theory to real dense vegetation system, we incorporated the effect of natural organic matter (NOM) on the filtration of colloids by stems. Laboratory dense vegetation flow chamber experiments and model simulations were used to determine the kinetic deposition (filtration) rate of colloids under various conditions. The results show that, in addition to flow hydrodynamics and solution chemistry, steric repulsion afforded by NOM layer on the plants stem surface also plays a significant role in controlling colloid deposition on vegetation in overland flow. For the first time, a refined single-stem efficiency theory with considerations of the NOM effect is developed that describes the experimental data with good accuracy. This theory can be used to not only help construct and refine mathematical models of colloid transport in real vegetation systems in overland flow, but also inform the development of theories of colloid deposition on NOM-coated surfaces in natural, engineered, and biomedical systems. PMID:24597773

  19. Multiple trauma in children: predicting outcome and long-term results

    PubMed Central

    Letts, Mervyn; Davidson, Darin; Lapner, Peter

    2002-01-01

    Objective To analyze the management of pediatric trauma and the efficacy of the Pediatric Trauma Score (PTS) in classifying injury severity and predicting prognosis. Design A retrospective case series. Setting The Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario, a major pediatric trauma centre. Patients One hundred and forty-nine traumatized children with 2 or more injuries to 1 body system or a single injury to 2 or more body systems. Interventions Use of the PTS and Glasgow Coma Scale score in trauma management. Main outcome measures Types of injuries sustained, complications, missed injuries, psychosocial effects and residual deficiencies. Results The average PTS was 8.5 (range from −3 to 11). The total number of injuries sustained was 494, most commonly closed head injury (86). Forty-two percent of children with an average trauma score of 8.5 were treated surgically. There were 13 missed injuries, and complications were encountered in 57 children, the most common being secondary to fractures. Forty-eight (32%) children had residual long-term deficiency, most commonly neurologic deficiency secondary to head injury. Conclusions Fractures should be stabilized early to decrease long-term complications. A deficiency of the PTS is the weighting of open fractures of a minor bone. For example, metacarpal fracture is given the same weight as an open fracture of the femur. Neuropsychologic difficulties secondary to trauma are a major sequela of trauma in children. PMID:11939656

  20. Low-cost surface reconstruction for aesthetic results assessment and prediction in breast cancer surgery.

    PubMed

    Lacher, Rene M; Hipwell, John H; Williams, Norman R; Keshtgar, Mohammed R S; Hawkes, David J; Stoyanov, Danail

    2015-08-01

    The high incidence and low mortality of breast cancer surgery has led to an increasing emphasis on the cosmetic outcome of surgical treatment. Advances in aesthetic evaluation, as well as surgical planning and outcome prediction, have been investigated by using geometrically precise 3D modelling of the breast surface prior to surgery and after the procedure. However, existing solutions are based on expensive site specific setups and remain weakly validated. In this paper, we explore the possibility of using low-cost RGBD cameras as an affordable and mobile system for breast surface reconstruction. The methodology relies on sensor calibration, uncertainty-driven point filtering, dense reconstruction and subsequent multi-view joint optimization to diffuse residual pose errors. Results from a phantom study, with ground truth obtained through commercially available scanners, indicate that the approach is promising with RMS errors in order of 2 mm. A clinical study shows the practical applicability of our method and compares favourably to high-end scanning solutions. PMID:26737627

  1. Verification of Numerical Weather Prediction Model Results for Energy Applications in Latvia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sīle, Tija; Cepite-Frisfelde, Daiga; Sennikovs, Juris; Bethers, Uldis

    2014-05-01

    A resolution to increase the production and consumption of renewable energy has been made by EU governments. Most of the renewable energy in Latvia is produced by Hydroelectric Power Plants (HPP), followed by bio-gas, wind power and bio-mass energy production. Wind and HPP power production is sensitive to meteorological conditions. Currently the basis of weather forecasting is Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models. There are numerous methodologies concerning the evaluation of quality of NWP results (Wilks 2011) and their application can be conditional on the forecast end user. The goal of this study is to evaluate the performance of Weather Research and Forecast model (Skamarock 2008) implementation over the territory of Latvia, focusing on forecasting of wind speed and quantitative precipitation forecasts. The target spatial resolution is 3 km. Observational data from Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre are used. A number of standard verification metrics are calculated. The sensitivity to the model output interpretation (output spatial interpolation versus nearest gridpoint) is investigated. For the precipitation verification the dichotomous verification metrics are used. Sensitivity to different precipitation accumulation intervals is examined. Skamarock, William C. and Klemp, Joseph B. A time-split nonhydrostatic atmospheric model for weather research and forecasting applications. Journal of Computational Physics. 227, 2008, pp. 3465-3485. Wilks, Daniel S. Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences. Third Edition. Academic Press, 2011.

  2. Ionizing radiation-induced mutagenesis: radiation studies in Neurospora predictive for results in mammalian cells

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Evans, H. H.; DeMarini, D. M.

    1999-01-01

    Ionizing radiation was the first mutagen discovered and was used to develop the first mutagenicity assay. In the ensuing 70+ years, ionizing radiation became a fundamental tool in understanding mutagenesis and is still a subject of intensive research. Frederick de Serres et al. developed and used the Neurospora crassa ad-3 system initially to explore the mutagenic effects of ionizing radiation. Using this system, de Serres et al. demonstrated the dependence of the frequency and spectra of mutations induced by ionizing radiation on the dose, dose rate, radiation quality, repair capabilities of the cells, and the target gene employed. This work in Neurospora predicted the subsequent observations of the mutagenic effects of ionizing radiation in mammalian cells. Modeled originally on the mouse specific-locus system developed by William L. Russell, the N. crassa ad-3 system developed by de Serres has itself served as a model for interpreting the results in subsequent systems in mammalian cells. This review describes the primary findings on the nature of ionizing radiation-induced mutagenesis in the N. crassa ad-3 system and the parallel observations made years later in mammalian cells.

  3. The energy loss may predict rupture risks of anterior communicating aneurysms: a preliminary result.

    PubMed

    Hu, Peng; Qian, Yi; Lee, Chong-Joon; Zhang, Hong-Qi; Ling, Feng

    2015-01-01

    Anterior communicating artery (ACoA) aneurysms are well documented to have a higher rupture risk compared with aneurysms at other locations. However, the risk predicting factors for these aneurysms still remain unclear due to the complex arteries geometries and flow patterns involved. The authors introduce a comprehensive method to quantitatively illustrate the development of ACoA aneurysms using a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach. Seven ACoA aneurysms, which included 2 ruptured and 5 unruptured aneurysms, were employed. Patient-specific whole anterior circulation geometries were segmented to simulate the real circumstances in vivo. The energy losses (EL) and flow architectures of these 7 aneurysms were evaluated using an algorithm modality. Overall, the 2 ruptured aneurysms, along with 1 unruptured aneurysm that was defined as highly likely to rupture due to ACoA location and a bleb sitting at the top of the dome, had a significantly larger EL and more complex and unstable flow architecture than the others. Two aneurysms had a negative value of EL indicating that the geometries with aneurysms of the anterior communicating complex (ACC) had a smaller loss of energy than the geometries without aneurysms. Despite a small sample size resulting in a low statistical significance, EL may serve as a development predictor of ACoA aneurysms. PMID:26064320

  4. Individual changes in clozapine levels after smoking cessation: results and a predictive model.

    PubMed

    Meyer, J M

    2001-12-01

    Published reports document 20-40% lower mean serum clozapine concentrations in smokers compared with nonsmokers due to enzyme induction. Despite the increase in nonsmoking psychiatric facilities in the United States, previous studies have not tracked individual changes in serum clozapine levels after smoking cessation. Clozapine level changes were analyzed in 11 patients at Oregon State Hospital who were on stable clozapine doses, before and after implementation of a hospital-wide nonsmoking policy. A mean increase in clozapine levels of 71.9% (442.4 ng/ml +/- 598.8 ng/ml) occurred upon smoking cessation (p < .034) from a baseline level of 550.2 ng/ml (+/- 160.18 ng/ml). One serious adverse event, aspiration pneumonia, was associated with a nonsmoking serum clozapine level of 3066 ng/ml. Elimination of statistically extreme results generated a mean increase of 57.4 % or 284.1 ng/ml (+/- 105.2 ng/ml) for the remaining cases (p < .001) and permitted construction of a linear model which explains 80.9% of changes in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation (F = 34.9;p = .001): clozapine level as nonsmoker = 45.3 + 1.474 (clozapine level as smoker). These findings suggest that significant increases in clozapine levels upon smoking cessation may be predicted by use of a model. Those with high baseline levels should be monitored for serious adverse events. PMID:11763003

  5. Comparison of RAGE Hydrocode Mars Impact Model Results to Scaling Law Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Plesko, Catherine S.; Wohletz, K. H.; Coker, R. F.; Asphaug, E.; Gittings, M. L.

    2007-10-01

    Impact devolatilization has been proposed by Segura et al. (2002) and Carr (1996) as a mechanism for triggering sporadic, intense precipitation on Mars. We seek to examine this hypothesis, specifically to determine the lower bound on possible energy/size scales, and thus an upper bound on the frequency of such events. To do this, we employ various analytical and numerical modeling techniques including the RAGE hydrocode. RAGE (Baltrusaitis et al. 1996) is an Eulerian Hydrocode that runs in up to three dimensions and incorporates a variety of detailed equations of state including the temperature-based SESAME tables maintained by LANL. In order to validate RAGE hydrocode results at the scale of moderate to large asteroid impacts, we compare simplified models of vertical impacts of objects of diameter 10 -100 km into homogeneous basalt targets under Martian conditions to pressure scaling law predictions (Holsapple 1993, e.g. Tables 3-4) for the same scenario. Peak pressures are important to the volatile mobilization question (Stewart and Ahrens, 2005), thus it is of primary importance for planned future modeling efforts to confirm that pressures in RAGE are well behaved. Knowledge of the final crater geometry and the fate of ejecta are not required to understand our main question: to what depth and radius are subsurface volatiles are mobilized, for a given impact and target? This effort is supported by LANL/IGPP (CSP, RFC, KHW, MLG) and by NASA PG&G "Small Bodies and Planetary Collisions" (EA).

  6. Accurately measuring MPI broadcasts in a computational grid

    SciTech Connect

    Karonis N T; de Supinski, B R

    1999-05-06

    An MPI library's implementation of broadcast communication can significantly affect the performance of applications built with that library. In order to choose between similar implementations or to evaluate available libraries, accurate measurements of broadcast performance are required. As we demonstrate, existing methods for measuring broadcast performance are either inaccurate or inadequate. Fortunately, we have designed an accurate method for measuring broadcast performance, even in a challenging grid environment. Measuring broadcast performance is not easy. Simply sending one broadcast after another allows them to proceed through the network concurrently, thus resulting in inaccurate per broadcast timings. Existing methods either fail to eliminate this pipelining effect or eliminate it by introducing overheads that are as difficult to measure as the performance of the broadcast itself. This problem becomes even more challenging in grid environments. Latencies a long different links can vary significantly. Thus, an algorithm's performance is difficult to predict from it's communication pattern. Even when accurate pre-diction is possible, the pattern is often unknown. Our method introduces a measurable overhead to eliminate the pipelining effect, regardless of variations in link latencies. choose between different available implementations. Also, accurate and complete measurements could guide use of a given implementation to improve application performance. These choices will become even more important as grid-enabled MPI libraries [6, 7] become more common since bad choices are likely to cost significantly more in grid environments. In short, the distributed processing community needs accurate, succinct and complete measurements of collective communications performance. Since successive collective communications can often proceed concurrently, accurately measuring them is difficult. Some benchmarks use knowledge of the communication algorithm to predict the

  7. Rapid measurement of 3-alkyl-2-methoxypyrazine content of winegrapes to predict levels in resultant wines.

    PubMed

    Ryona, Imelda; Pan, Bruce S; Sacks, Gavin L

    2009-09-23

    We describe an optimized protocol for analysis of the herbaceous smelling 3-alkyl-2-methoxypyrazines (MPs) in whole berries that predicts MPs in resultant red wines. Berries are homogenized by bead-milling with a deuterated standard prior to headspace solid phase microextraction (HS-SPME) and quantification by two-dimensional gas chromatography time-of-flight-mass-spectrometry (GCxGC-TOF-MS). In the case of 3-isopropyl-2-methoxypyrazine (IPMP), GCxGC-TOF-MS successfully resolved interferences that coeluted with the analyte in the first dimension. HS-SPME parameters (pH, queue time, incubation time, extraction time, extraction temperature) were optimized by a statistical experimental design. Good method accuracy was observed (consistent ratio of unlabeled analyte to labeled standard) at 10 min extraction times when 80 degrees C extraction temperatures were employed, although increasing sensitivity was observed for longer extraction times (up to 140 min). Standard addition of 3-isobutyl-2-methoxypyrazine (IBMP) and IPMP into preveraison and harvest ripe berry matrices showed good linearity (r(2) >0.99 in all cases), with limits of detection ranging from 0.6 to 1.8 pg/g. The protocol was validated by comparing IBMP in 16 lots of Cabernet Franc berries (range = undetectable to 18.4 pg/g) to the resulting wines (range = undetectable to 14.5 pg/g). Berry and wine MP content were strongly correlated, (r(2) = 0.97, p < 0.0001). Following correction for CO(2) loss, the observed concentration of IBMP in wines was 67 +/- 13% of the IBMP concentration observed in berries.

  8. Bankruptcy prediction for credit risk using neural networks: a survey and new results.

    PubMed

    Atiya, A F

    2001-01-01

    The prediction of corporate bankruptcies is an important and widely studied topic since it can have significant impact on bank lending decisions and profitability. This work presents two contributions. First we review the topic of bankruptcy prediction, with emphasis on neural-network (NN) models. Second, we develop an NN bankruptcy prediction model. Inspired by one of the traditional credit risk models developed by Merton (1974), we propose novel indicators for the NN system. We show that the use of these indicators in addition to traditional financial ratio indicators provides a significant improvement in the (out-of-sample) prediction accuracy (from 81.46% to 85.5% for a three-year-ahead forecast).

  9. Prediction of psychological functioning one year after the predictive test for Huntington's disease and impact of the test result on reproductive decision making.

    PubMed

    Decruyenaere, M; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Boogaerts, A; Cassiman, J J; Cloostermans, T; Demyttenaere, K; Dom, R; Fryns, J P; Van den Berghe, H

    1996-09-01

    For people at risk for Huntington's disease, the anxiety and uncertainty about the future may be very burdensome and may be an obstacle to personal decision making about important life issues, for example, procreation. For some at risk persons, this situation is the reason for requesting predictive DNA testing. The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, we want to evaluate whether knowing one's carrier status reduces anxiety and uncertainty and whether it facilitates decision making about procreation. Second, we endeavour to identify pretest predictors of psychological adaptation one year after the predictive test (psychometric evaluation of general anxiety, depression level, and ego strength). The impact of the predictive test result was assessed in 53 subjects tested, using pre- and post-test psychometric measurement and self-report data of follow up interviews. Mean anxiety and depression levels were significantly decreased one year after a good test result; there was no significant change in the case of a bad test result. The mean personality profile, including ego strength, remained unchanged one year after the test. The study further shows that the test result had a definite impact on reproductive decision making. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were used to select the best predictors of the subject's post-test reactions. The results indicate that a careful evaluation of pretest ego strength, depression level, and coping strategies may be helpful in predicting post-test reactions, independently of the carrier status. Test result (carrier/ non-carrier), gender, and age did not significantly contribute to the prediction. About one third of the variance of post-test anxiety and depression level and more than half of the variance of ego strength was explained, implying that other psychological or social aspects should also be taken into account when predicting individual post-test reactions.

  10. Predictive factors for a severe clinical course in ulcerative colitis: Results from population-based studies.

    PubMed

    Wanderås, Magnus Hofrenning; Moum, Bjørn A; Høivik, Marte Lie; Hovde, Øistein

    2016-05-01

    Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by chronic inflammation of the large bowel in genetically susceptible individuals exposed to environmental risk factors. The disease course can be difficult to predict, with symptoms ranging from mild to severe. There is no generally accepted definition of severe UC, and no single outcome is sufficient to classify a disease course as severe. There are several outcomes indicating a severe disease course, including progression of the disease's extension, a high relapse rate, the development of acute severe colitis, colectomy, the occurrence of colorectal cancer and UC-related mortality. When evaluating a patient's prognosis, it is helpful to do so in relation to these outcomes. Using these outcomes also makes it easier to isolate factors predictive of severe disease. The aims of this article are to evaluate different disease outcomes and to present predictive factors for these outcomes. PMID:27158539

  11. Predictive factors for a severe clinical course in ulcerative colitis: Results from population-based studies

    PubMed Central

    Wanderås, Magnus Hofrenning; Moum, Bjørn A; Høivik, Marte Lie; Hovde, Øistein

    2016-01-01

    Ulcerative colitis (UC) is characterized by chronic inflammation of the large bowel in genetically susceptible individuals exposed to environmental risk factors. The disease course can be difficult to predict, with symptoms ranging from mild to severe. There is no generally accepted definition of severe UC, and no single outcome is sufficient to classify a disease course as severe. There are several outcomes indicating a severe disease course, including progression of the disease’s extension, a high relapse rate, the development of acute severe colitis, colectomy, the occurrence of colorectal cancer and UC-related mortality. When evaluating a patient’s prognosis, it is helpful to do so in relation to these outcomes. Using these outcomes also makes it easier to isolate factors predictive of severe disease. The aims of this article are to evaluate different disease outcomes and to present predictive factors for these outcomes. PMID:27158539

  12. In Silico Prediction of Chemically Induced Mutagenicity: How to Use QSAR Models and Interpret Their Results.

    PubMed

    Mombelli, Enrico; Raitano, Giuseppa; Benfenati, Emilio

    2016-01-01

    Information on genotoxicity is an essential piece of information gathering for a comprehensive toxicological characterization of chemicals. Several QSAR models that can predict Ames genotoxicity are freely available for download from the Internet and they can provide relevant information for the toxicological profiling of chemicals. Indeed, they can be straightforwardly used for predicting the presence or absence of genotoxic hazards associated with the interactions of chemicals with DNA.Nevertheless, and despite the ease of use of these models, the scientific challenge is to assess the reliability of information that can be obtained from these tools. This chapter provides instructions on how to use freely available QSAR models and on how to interpret their predictions.

  13. In Silico Prediction of Chemically Induced Mutagenicity: How to Use QSAR Models and Interpret Their Results.

    PubMed

    Mombelli, Enrico; Raitano, Giuseppa; Benfenati, Emilio

    2016-01-01

    Information on genotoxicity is an essential piece of information gathering for a comprehensive toxicological characterization of chemicals. Several QSAR models that can predict Ames genotoxicity are freely available for download from the Internet and they can provide relevant information for the toxicological profiling of chemicals. Indeed, they can be straightforwardly used for predicting the presence or absence of genotoxic hazards associated with the interactions of chemicals with DNA.Nevertheless, and despite the ease of use of these models, the scientific challenge is to assess the reliability of information that can be obtained from these tools. This chapter provides instructions on how to use freely available QSAR models and on how to interpret their predictions. PMID:27311463

  14. Advanced turboprop noise prediction: Development of a code at NASA Langley based on recent theoretical results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Farassat, F.; Dunn, M. H.; Padula, S. L.

    1986-01-01

    The development of a high speed propeller noise prediction code at Langley Research Center is described. The code utilizes two recent acoustic formulations in the time domain for subsonic and supersonic sources. The structure and capabilities of the code are discussed. Grid size study for accuracy and speed of execution on a computer is also presented. The code is tested against an earlier Langley code. Considerable increase in accuracy and speed of execution are observed. Some examples of noise prediction of a high speed propeller for which acoustic test data are available are given. A brisk derivation of formulations used is given in an appendix.

  15. Prediction of ice accretion on a swept NACA 0012 airfoil and comparisons to flight test results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reehorst, Andrew L.

    1992-01-01

    In the winter of 1989-90, an icing research flight project was conducted to obtain swept wing ice accretion data. Utilizing the NASA Lewis Research Center's DHC-6 DeHavilland Twin Otter aircraft, research flights were made into known icing conditions in Northeastern Ohio. The icing cloud environment and aircraft flight data were measured and recorded by an onboard data acquisition system. Upon entry into the icing environment, a 24 inch span, 15 inch chord NACA 0012 airfoil was extended from the aircraft and set to the desired sweep angle. After the growth of a well defined ice shape, the airfoil was retracted into the aircraft cabin for ice shape documentation. The ice accretions were recorded by ice tracings and photographs. Ice accretions were mostly of the glaze type and exhibited scalloping. The ice was accreted at sweep angles of 0, 30, and 45 degrees. A 3-D ice accretion prediction code was used to predict ice profiles for five selected flight test runs, which include sweep angle of zero, 30, and 45 degrees. The code's roughness input parameter was adjusted for best agreement. A simple procedure was added to the code to account for 3-D ice scalloping effects. The predicted ice profiles are compared to their respective flight test counterparts. This is the first attempt to predict ice profiles on swept wings with significant scalloped ice formations.

  16. Imprecision in predicted dose from /sup 137/Cs resulting from biological variability

    SciTech Connect

    Dunning, D.E. Jr.; Schwarz, G.

    1981-01-01

    The variability of observed values of human metabolic and physiological characteristics which influence estimates of dose from ingestion of a unit of Cesium-137 activity, and the subsequent predicted total-body dose commitment is analyzed. The analysis is based on extensive literature review and statistical comparison of parameter variability, correlation and reliability. (PSB)

  17. The effect of ocean tides on the earth's rotation as predicted by the results of an ocean tide model

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gross, Richard S.

    1993-01-01

    The published ocean tidal angular momentum results of Seiler (1991) are used to predict the effects of the most important semidiurnal, diurnal, and long period ocean tides on the earth's rotation. The separate, as well as combined, effects of ocean tidal currents and sea level height changes on the length-of-day, UT1, and polar motion are computed. The predicted polar motion results reported here account for the presence of the free core nutation and are given in terms of the motion of the celestial ephemeris pole so that they can be compared directly to the results of observations. Outside the retrograde diurnal tidal band, the summed effect of the semidiurnal and diurnal ocean tides studied here predict peak-to-peak polar motion amplitudes as large as 2 mas. Within the retrograde diurnal tidal band, the resonant enhancement caused by the free core nutation leads to predicted polar motion amplitudes as large as 9 mas.

  18. Continuously growing rodent molars result from a predictable quantitative evolutionary change over 50 million years

    PubMed Central

    Mushegyan, Vagan; Eronen, Jussi T.; Lawing, A. Michelle; Sharir, Amnon; Janis, Christine; Jernvall, Jukka; Klein, Ophir D.

    2015-01-01

    Summary The fossil record is widely informative about evolution, but fossils are not systematically used to study the evolution of stem cell-driven renewal. Here, we examined evolution of the continuous growth (hypselodonty) of rodent molar teeth, which is fuelled by the presence of dental stem cells. We studied occurrences of 3500 North American rodent fossils, ranging from 50 million years ago (mya) to 2 mya. We examined changes in molar height to determine if evolution of hypselodonty shows distinct patterns in the fossil record, and we found that hypselodont taxa emerged through intermediate forms of increasing crown height. Next, we designed a Markov simulation model, which replicated molar height increases throughout the Cenozoic, and, moreover, evolution of hypselodonty. Thus, by extension, the retention of the adult stem-cell niche appears to be a predictable quantitative rather than a stochastic qualitative process. Our analyses predict that hypselodonty will eventually become the dominant phenotype. PMID:25921530

  19. Synthesising empirical results to improve predictions of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Shakesby, Richard A.; Moody, John A.; Martin, Deborah A.; Robichaud, Peter R.

    2016-01-01

    Advances in research into wildfire impacts on runoff and erosion have demonstrated increasing complexity of controlling factors and responses, which, combined with changing fire frequency, present challenges for modellers. We convened a conference attended by experts and practitioners in post-wildfire impacts, meteorology and related research, including modelling, to focus on priority research issues. The aim was to improve our understanding of controls and responses and the predictive capabilities of models. This conference led to the eight selected papers in this special issue. They address aspects of the distinctiveness in the controls and responses among wildfire regions, spatiotemporal rainfall variability, infiltration, runoff connectivity, debris flow formation and modelling applications. Here we summarise key findings from these papers and evaluate their contribution to improving understanding and prediction of post-wildfire runoff and erosion under changes in climate, human intervention and population pressure on wildfire-prone areas.

  20. Prediction of subsidence resulting from creep closure of solutioned-mined caverns in salt domes

    SciTech Connect

    Neal, J.T.

    1991-01-01

    The prediction of subsidence rates over a range of areal configurations of solution-mined caverns in salt domes is possible, based on some fifty years of history in solution mining. Several approaches contribute to predictions: site-specific observations obtained from subsidence monitoring; numerical modeling, now becoming more practicable and credible; salt-creep data from testing; and rule-of-thumb methods, based on experience. All of these approaches contribute to understanding subsidence but none are totally reliable alone. The example of subsidence occurring at the Strategic Petroleum Reserve sites demonstrates several principles of cavern creep closure, the main cause of the subsidence, and shows that reliable projections of future subsidence are possible. 13 refs., 6 figs.

  1. Plans and Example Results for the 2nd AIAA Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Heeg, Jennifer; Chwalowski, Pawel; Schuster, David M.; Raveh, Daniella; Jirasek, Adam; Dalenbring, Mats

    2015-01-01

    This paper summarizes the plans for the second AIAA Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop. The workshop is designed to assess the state-of-the-art of computational methods for predicting unsteady flow fields and aeroelastic response. The goals are to provide an impartial forum to evaluate the effectiveness of existing computer codes and modeling techniques, and to identify computational and experimental areas needing additional research and development. This paper provides guidelines and instructions for participants including the computational aerodynamic model, the structural dynamic properties, the experimental comparison data and the expected output data from simulations. The Benchmark Supercritical Wing (BSCW) has been chosen as the configuration for this workshop. The analyses to be performed will include aeroelastic flutter solutions of the wing mounted on a pitch-and-plunge apparatus.

  2. Prediction of sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data. Volume 1: Method and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Glatt, C. R.; Hague, D. S.; Reiners, S. J.

    1975-01-01

    A computerized procedure for predicting sonic boom from experimental near-field overpressure data has been developed. The procedure extrapolates near-field pressure signatures for a specified flight condition to the ground by the Thomas method. Near-field pressure signatures are interpolated from a data base of experimental pressure signatures. The program is an independently operated ODIN (Optimal Design Integration) program which obtains flight path information from other ODIN programs or from input.

  3. Latest COBE results, large-scale data, and predictions of inflation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kashlinsky, A.

    1992-01-01

    One of the predictions of the inflationary scenario of cosmology is that the initial spectrum of primordial density fluctuations (PDFs) must have the Harrison-Zeldovich (HZ) form. Here, in order to test the inflationary scenario, predictions of the microwave background radiation (MBR) anisotropies measured by COBE are computed based on large-scale data for the universe and assuming Omega-1 and the HZ spectrum on large scales. It is found that the minimal scale where the spectrum can first enter the HZ regime is found, constraining the power spectrum of the mass distribution to within the bias factor b. This factor is determined and used to predict parameters of the MBR anisotropy field. For the spectrum of PDFs that reaches the HZ regime immediately after the scale accessible to the APM catalog, the numbers on MBR anisotropies are consistent with the COBE detections and thus the standard inflation can indeed be considered a viable theory for the origin of the large-scale structure in the universe.

  4. Prognosis Can Be Predicted More Accurately Using Pre- and Postchemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Levels Compared to Only Prechemoradiotherapy Carcinoembryonic Antigen Level in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer Patients Who Received Neoadjuvant Chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Sung, SooYoon; Son, Seok Hyun; Kay, Chul Seung; Lee, Yoon Suk

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of a change in the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level during neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. A total of 110 patients with clinical T3/T4 or node-positive disease underwent nCRT and curative total mesorectal resection from February 2006 to December 2013. Serum CEA level was measured before nCRT, after nCRT, and then again after surgery. A cut-off value for CEA level to predict prognosis was determined using the maximally selected log-rank test. According to the test, patients were classified into 3 groups, based on their CEA levels (Group A: pre-CRT CEA ≤3.2; Group B: pre-CRT CEA level >3.2 and post-CRT CEA ≤2.8; and Group C: pre-CRT CEA >3.2 and post-CRT CEA >2.8). The median follow-up time was 31.1 months. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) rates of Group A and Group B were similar, while Group C showed a significantly lower 3-year DFS rate (82.5% vs. 89.5% vs. 55.1%, respectively, P = 0.001). Other clinicopathological factors that showed statistical significance on univariate analysis were pre-CRT CEA, post-CRT CEA, tumor distance from the anal verge, surgery type, downstage, pathologic N stage, margin status and perineural invasion. The CEA group (P = 0.001) and tumor distance from the anal verge (P = 0.044) were significant prognostic factors for DFS on multivariate analysis. Post-CRT CEA level may be a useful prognostic factor in patients whose prognosis cannot be predicted exactly by pre-CRT CEA levels alone in the neoadjuvant treatment era. Combined pre-CRT CEA and post-CRT CEA levels enable us to predict prognosis more accurately and determine treatment and follow-up policies. Further large-scale studies are necessary to validate the prognostic value of CEA levels. PMID:26962798

  5. Predicting Prostate Biopsy Results Using a Panel of Plasma and Urine Biomarkers Combined in a Scoring System

    PubMed Central

    Albitar, Maher; Ma, Wanlong; Lund, Lars; Albitar, Ferras; Diep, Kevin; Fritsche, Herbert A.; Shore, Neal

    2016-01-01

    Background: Determining the need for prostate biopsy is frequently difficult and more objective criteria are needed to predict the presence of high grade prostate cancer (PCa). To reduce the rate of unnecessary biopsies, we explored the potential of using biomarkers in urine and plasma to develop a scoring system to predict prostate biopsy results and the presence of high grade PCa. Methods: Urine and plasma specimens were collected from 319 patients recommended for prostate biopsies. We measured the gene expression levels of UAP1, PDLIM5, IMPDH2, HSPD1, PCA3, PSA, TMPRSS2, ERG, GAPDH, B2M, AR, and PTEN in plasma and urine. Patient age, serum prostate-specific antigen (sPSA) level, and biomarkers data were used to develop two independent algorithms, one for predicting the presence of PCa and the other for predicting high-grade PCa (Gleason score [GS] ≥7). Results: Using training and validation data sets, a model for predicting the outcome of PCa biopsy was developed with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.87. The positive and negative predictive values (PPV and NPV) were 87% and 63%, respectively. We then developed a second algorithm to identify patients with high-grade PCa (GS ≥7). This algorithm's AUROC was 0.80, and had a PPV and NPV of 56% and 77%, respectively. Patients who demonstrated concordant results using both algorithms showed a sensitivity of 84% and specificity of 93% for predicting high-grade aggressive PCa. Thus, the use of both algorithms resulted in a PPV of 90% and NPV of 89% for predicting high-grade PCa with toleration of some low-grade PCa (GS <7) being detected. Conclusions: This model of a biomarker panel with algorithmic interpretation can be used as a “liquid biopsy” to reduce the need for unnecessary tissue biopsies, and help to guide appropriate treatment decisions. PMID:26918043

  6. Nocturnal eating predicts tooth loss among adults: results from the Danish MONICA study.

    PubMed

    Lundgren, Jennifer D; Williams, Karen B; Heitmann, Berit L

    2010-08-01

    The relationship between nocturnal eating, such as that associated with night eating syndrome (NES), and oral health is unknown. This study sought to determine if nocturnal eating is related to tooth loss in a large, epidemiologic sample. Danes (N=2217; age range 30-60 years, M BMI [kg/m(2)]=25.9, % Male=50.1) enrolled in the Danish MONICA (MONItoring trends and determinants of CArdiovascular disease) were assessed on oral health, eating behavior, anthropometrics, general health, and demographic characteristics in both 1987/88 and 1993/94. We hypothesized that nocturnal eating at time one (1987/88) predicts number of missing teeth at time two (1993/94), when controlling for age, education, smoking status, body mass, carbohydrate intake, binge eating behavior, and diabetes diagnosis. A negative binomial model predicting number of missing teeth from nocturnal eating while controlling for covariates was conducted. Expected change in log count of missing teeth was significantly less for non-night eaters (p=.009), non-smokers (p=.001), non-diabetics (p=.001) and for each successive younger age group (p=.0001). Additionally, expected increase in log count of missing teeth was significantly greater for individuals with less than "high school diploma" education compared to those with the highest level of education (p=.0001). In sum, nocturnal eating contributes to tooth loss. Treatment providers should encourage good oral health care practices to reduce the risk of tooth loss associated with nocturnal eating.

  7. Prediction of SFL Interruption Performance from the Results of Arc Simulation during High-Current Phase

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Jong-Chul; Lee, Won-Ho; Kim, Woun-Jea

    2015-09-01

    The design and development procedures of SF6 gas circuit breakers are still largely based on trial and error through testing although the development costs go higher every year. The computation cannot cover the testing satisfactorily because all the real processes arc not taken into account. But the knowledge of the arc behavior and the prediction of the thermal-flow inside the interrupters by numerical simulations are more useful than those by experiments due to the difficulties to obtain physical quantities experimentally and the reduction of computational costs in recent years. In this paper, in order to get further information into the interruption process of a SF6 self-blast interrupter, which is based on a combination of thermal expansion and the arc rotation principle, gas flow simulations with a CFD-arc modeling are performed during the whole switching process such as high-current period, pre-current zero period, and current-zero period. Through the complete work, the pressure-rise and the ramp of the pressure inside the chamber before current zero as well as the post-arc current after current zero should be a good criterion to predict the short-line fault interruption performance of interrupters.

  8. [Prediction and prevention of type 1 diabetes mellitus: initial results and recent prospects].

    PubMed

    Madácsy, László

    2011-11-27

    Epidemiological studies indicate that the incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes mellitus is rising worldwide. The increase in incidence has been most prominent in the youngest age group of childhood. Prediction of type 1a autoimmune diabetes can be established by a positive family history or by genetic, immunological or metabolic markers. Prevention of type 1 diabetes can be implemented at three different levels of pathogenesis: primary prevention in individuals without any sign of beta-cell damage, secondary prevention in individuals with signs of beta-cell destruction and tertiary prevention in patients with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes. In recent years our knowledge of the disease pathogenesis has grown quickly, and several new prevention trials have been initiated worldwide. Immunologic intervention for type 1 diabetes will prove to be probably the most effective.

  9. Interactive Land Use-Climate Change Predictions in West Africa: Preliminary Results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, G.; Ahmed, K. F.; You, L.; Koo, J.

    2013-12-01

    Land use changes constitute an important regional climate change forcing that modifies the greenhouse gas induced future climate changes. At the same time, climate change is an important driver for land use changes, although it is unclear how important this impact might be relative to the impact of socio-economic factors on future land use. Using West Africa as an example, this study examines the importance of considering land use-climate change interactions in decadal predictions for future land use and climate changes, and thus assess whether there is a strong need to incorporate land use modeling into earth system models. Specifically, we evaluate the impact of projected climate changes from a regional climate model (RegCM4-CLM4) on crop yields using the crop model DSSAT, and assess the need for future land use changes by combining crop yield changes with demand for local productions predicted based on socio-economic drivers using an economic model (IFPRI's IMPACT model). For this preliminary assessment, a simple land use allocation approach is used, which favors agricultural expansion over intensification in order to provide an upper limit for land use changes. As a first test, the RCP8.5 mid-century climate projected by the NCAR CESM model is used as the future climate boundary conditions to drive the regional climate model. The impact of considering the land use-climate change interactions will be evaluated based on the differences in projected climate changes between two types of simulations: one that considers land use changes driven by both climate-induced crop yield changes and socioeconomic factors, and one that considers land use changes driven solely by socioeconomic factors.

  10. Daytime continuous polysomnography predicts MSLT results in hypersomnias of central origin.

    PubMed

    Pizza, Fabio; Moghadam, Keivan K; Vandi, Stefano; Detto, Stefania; Poli, Francesca; Mignot, Emmanuel; Ferri, Raffaele; Plazzi, Giuseppe

    2013-02-01

    In the diagnostic work-up of hypersomnias of central origin, the complaint of excessive daytime sleepiness should be objectively confirmed by MSLT findings. Indeed, the features and diagnostic utility of spontaneous daytime sleep at 24 h continuous polysomnography (PSG) have never been investigated. We compared daytime PSG features to MSLT data in 98 consecutive patients presenting with excessive daytime sleepiness and with a final diagnosis of narcolepsy with cataplexy/hypocretin deficiency (n = 39), narcolepsy without cataplexy (n = 7), idiopathic hypersomnia without long sleep time (n = 19), and 'hypersomnia' with normal sleep latency at MSLT (n = 33). Daytime sleep time was significantly higher in narcolepsy-cataplexy but similar in the other groups. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves showed that the number of naps during daytime PSG predicted a mean sleep latency ≤8 min at MSLT with an area under the curve of 0.67 ± 0.05 (P = 0.005). The number of daytime sleep-onset REM periods (SOREMPs) in spontaneous naps strikingly predicted the scheduled occurrence of two or more SOREMPs at MSLT, with an area under the ROC curve of 0.93 ± 0.03 (P < 10(-12) ). One spontaneous SOREMP during daytime had a sensitivity of 96% with specificity of 74%, whereas two SOREMPs had a sensitivity of 75%, with a specificity of 95% for a pathological REM sleep propensity at MSLT. The features of spontaneous daytime sleep well correlated with MSLT findings. Notably, the occurrence of multiple spontaneous SOREMPs during daytime clearly identified patients with narcolepsy, as well as during the MSLT.

  11. Investigations of Fluid-Structure-Coupling and Turbulence Model Effects on the DLR Results of the Fifth AIAA CFD Drag Prediction Workshop

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Keye, Stefan; Togiti, Vamish; Eisfeld, Bernhard; Brodersen, Olaf P.; Rivers, Melissa B.

    2013-01-01

    The accurate calculation of aerodynamic forces and moments is of significant importance during the design phase of an aircraft. Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) based Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) has been strongly developed over the last two decades regarding robustness, efficiency, and capabilities for aerodynamically complex configurations. Incremental aerodynamic coefficients of different designs can be calculated with an acceptable reliability at the cruise design point of transonic aircraft for non-separated flows. But regarding absolute values as well as increments at off-design significant challenges still exist to compute aerodynamic data and the underlying flow physics with the accuracy required. In addition to drag, pitching moments are difficult to predict because small deviations of the pressure distributions, e.g. due to neglecting wing bending and twisting caused by the aerodynamic loads can result in large discrepancies compared to experimental data. Flow separations that start to develop at off-design conditions, e.g. in corner-flows, at trailing edges, or shock induced, can have a strong impact on the predictions of aerodynamic coefficients too. Based on these challenges faced by the CFD community a working group of the AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Technical Committee initiated in 2001 the CFD Drag Prediction Workshop (DPW) series resulting in five international workshops. The results of the participants and the committee are summarized in more than 120 papers. The latest, fifth workshop took place in June 2012 in conjunction with the 30th AIAA Applied Aerodynamics Conference. The results in this paper will evaluate the influence of static aeroelastic wing deformations onto pressure distributions and overall aerodynamic coefficients based on the NASA finite element structural model and the common grids.

  12. Using artificial neural networks to predict the performance of a liquid metal reflux solar receiver: Preliminary results

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, M.M.

    1995-12-31

    Three and four-layer backpropagation artificial neural networks have been used to predict the power output of a liquid metal reflux solar receiver. The networks were trained using on-sun test data recorded at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The preliminary results presented in this paper are a comparison of how different size networks train on this particular data. The results give encouragement that it will be possible to predict output power of a liquid metal receiver under a variety of operating conditions using artificial neural networks.

  13. HTR 2014 Paper - Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 safety tests

    SciTech Connect

    Blaise P. Collin

    2001-10-01

    Safety tests were conducted on fourteen fuel compacts from AGR-1, the first irradiation experiment of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification program, at temperatures ranging from 1600 to 1800°C to determine fission product release at temperatures that bound reactor accident conditions. The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, strontium, and krypton from fuel compacts containing tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particles during the safety tests, and the predicted values were compared with experimental results. Preliminary comparisons between PARFUME predictions and post-irradiation examination (PIE) results of the safety tests show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of these fission products, which is largely attributed to an over-estimation of the diffusivities used in the modeling of fission product transport in TRISO-coated particles. Correction factors to these diffusivities were assessed for silver and cesium in order to enable a better match between the modeling predictions and the safety testing results. In the case of strontium, correction factors could not be assessed because potential release during the safety tests could not be distinguished from matrix content released during irradiation. In the case of krypton, all the coating layers are partly retentive and the available data did not allow to determine their respective retention powers, hence preventing to derive any correction factors.

  14. Accurate monotone cubic interpolation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huynh, Hung T.

    1991-01-01

    Monotone piecewise cubic interpolants are simple and effective. They are generally third-order accurate, except near strict local extrema where accuracy degenerates to second-order due to the monotonicity constraint. Algorithms for piecewise cubic interpolants, which preserve monotonicity as well as uniform third and fourth-order accuracy are presented. The gain of accuracy is obtained by relaxing the monotonicity constraint in a geometric framework in which the median function plays a crucial role.

  15. Technique for predicting ground-water discharge to surface coal mines and resulting changes in head

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Weiss, L.S.; Galloway, D.L.; Ishii, Audrey

    1986-01-01

    Changes in seepage flux and head (groundwater level) from groundwater drainage into a surface coal mine can be predicted by a technique that considers drainage from the unsaturated zone. The user applies site-specific data to precalculated head and seepage-flux profiles. Groundwater flow through hypothetical aquifer cross sections was simulated using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference model, VS2D, which considers variably saturated two-dimensional flow. Conceptual models considered were (1) drainage to a first cut, and (2) drainage to multiple cuts, which includes drainage effects of an area surface mine. Dimensionless head and seepage flux profiles from 246 simulations are presented. Step-by-step instructions and examples are presented. Users are required to know aquifer characteristics and to estimate size and timing of the mine operation at a proposed site. Calculated groundwater drainage to the mine is from one excavated face only. First cut considers confined and unconfined aquifers of a wide range of permeabilities; multiple cuts considers unconfined aquifers of higher permeabilities only. The technique, developed for Illinois coal-mining regions that use area surface mining and evaluated with an actual field example, will be useful in assessing potential hydrologic impacts of mining. Application is limited to hydrogeologic settings and mine operations similar to those considered. Fracture flow, recharge, and leakage are nor considered. (USGS)

  16. Developing symptom-based predictive models of endometriosis as a clinical screening tool: results from a multicenter study

    PubMed Central

    Nnoaham, Kelechi E.; Hummelshoj, Lone; Kennedy, Stephen H.; Jenkinson, Crispin; Zondervan, Krina T.

    2012-01-01

    Objective To generate and validate symptom-based models to predict endometriosis among symptomatic women prior to undergoing their first laparoscopy. Design Prospective, observational, two-phase study, in which women completed a 25-item questionnaire prior to surgery. Setting Nineteen hospitals in 13 countries. Patient(s) Symptomatic women (n = 1,396) scheduled for laparoscopy without a previous surgical diagnosis of endometriosis. Intervention(s) None. Main Outcome Measure(s) Sensitivity and specificity of endometriosis diagnosis predicted by symptoms and patient characteristics from optimal models developed using multiple logistic regression analyses in one data set (phase I), and independently validated in a second data set (phase II) by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. Result(s) Three hundred sixty (46.7%) women in phase I and 364 (58.2%) in phase II were diagnosed with endometriosis at laparoscopy. Menstrual dyschezia (pain on opening bowels) and a history of benign ovarian cysts most strongly predicted both any and stage III and IV endometriosis in both phases. Prediction of any-stage endometriosis, although improved by ultrasound scan evidence of cyst/nodules, was relatively poor (area under the curve [AUC] = 68.3). Stage III and IV disease was predicted with good accuracy (AUC = 84.9, sensitivity of 82.3% and specificity 75.8% at an optimal cut-off of 0.24). Conclusion(s) Our symptom-based models predict any-stage endometriosis relatively poorly and stage III and IV disease with good accuracy. Predictive tools based on such models could help to prioritize women for surgical investigation in clinical practice and thus contribute to reducing time to diagnosis. We invite other researchers to validate the key models in additional populations. PMID:22657249

  17. Factors to predict positive results of gonadotropin releasing hormone stimulation test in girls with suspected precocious puberty.

    PubMed

    Nam, Hyo-Kyoung; Rhie, Young Jun; Son, Chang Sung; Park, Sang Hee; Lee, Kee-Hyoung

    2012-02-01

    Sometimes, the clinical findings and the results of the gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulation test are inconsistent in girls with early breast development and bone age advancement. We aimed to investigate the factors predicting positive results of the GnRH stimulation test in girls with suspected central precocious puberty (CPP). We reviewed the records of 574 girls who developed breast budding before the age of 8 yr and underwent the GnRH stimulation test under the age of 9 yr. Positive results of the GnRH stimulated peak luteinizing hormone (LH) level were defined as 5 IU/L and over. Girls with the initial positive results (n = 375) showed accelerated growth, advanced bone age and higher serum basal LH, follicle-stimulating hormone, and estradiol levels, compared to those with the initial negative results (n = 199). Girls with the follow-up positive results (n = 64) showed accelerated growth and advanced bone age, compared to those with the follow-up negative results. In the binary logistic regression, the growth velocity ratio was the most significant predictive factor of positive results. We suggest that the rapid growth velocity is the most useful predictive factor for positive results in the GnRH stimulation test in girls with suspected precocious puberty.

  18. Psychoneuroimmunology: an interpretation of experimental and case study evidence towards a paradigm for predictable results.

    PubMed

    Kalt, H W

    2000-07-01

    This paper surveys a number of key experiments and case studies relating to psychoneuroimmunology. It finds that most techniques to influence or even direct the immune system via the mind fall into a series of theoretical categories called passive, active and targeted effects. By examining the results of experiments and studies in the light of these categories a number of important conclusions are drawn. These conclusions explain differences in experimental results, describe those variables that appear to be central to obtaining results, and describe in detail where experimentation should be concentrated to further knowledge of psychoneuroimmunology.

  19. Feedback about More Accurate versus Less Accurate Trials: Differential Effects on Self-Confidence and Activation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Badami, Rokhsareh; VaezMousavi, Mohammad; Wulf, Gabriele; Namazizadeh, Mahdi

    2012-01-01

    One purpose of the present study was to examine whether self-confidence or anxiety would be differentially affected by feedback from more accurate rather than less accurate trials. The second purpose was to determine whether arousal variations (activation) would predict performance. On Day 1, participants performed a golf putting task under one of…

  20. Comparison of silver, cesium, and strontium release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; Maki, John T.

    2015-08-22

    The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from tristructural isotropic coated fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation experiment (AGR-1) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-1 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 620 days of irradiation to calculate the release of silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-1 compacts. Post-irradiation examination measurements provided data on release of these fission products from fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of silver in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. PARFUME-predicted fractional release of silver, cesium, and strontium was determined and compared to the PIE measurements. For silver, comparisons show a trend of over-prediction at low burnup and under-prediction at high burnup. PARFUME has limitations in the modeling of the temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature and burnup across the compacts, which affects the accuracy of its predictions. Nevertheless, the comparisons on silver release lie in the same order of magnitude. Results show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of cesium by PARFUME. For particles with failed SiC layers, the over-prediction is by a factor of up to 3, corresponding to a potential over-estimation of the diffusivity in uranium oxycarbide (UCO) by a factor of up to 250. For intact particles, whose release is much lower, the over-prediction is by a factor of up to 100, which could be attributed to an over-estimated diffusivity in SiC by about 40% on average. The release of strontium from intact particles is also over-predicted by PARFUME, which also points towards an over-estimated diffusivity of strontium in either SiC or UCO, or possibly both. The measured strontium fractional release from

  1. Comparison of silver, cesium, and strontium release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    DOE PAGES

    Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; Maki, John T.

    2015-08-22

    The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from tristructural isotropic coated fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation experiment (AGR-1) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-1 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 620 days of irradiation to calculate the release of silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-1 compacts. Post-irradiation examination measurements provided data on release of these fission products from fuel compacts andmore » fuel particles, and retention of silver in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. PARFUME-predicted fractional release of silver, cesium, and strontium was determined and compared to the PIE measurements. For silver, comparisons show a trend of over-prediction at low burnup and under-prediction at high burnup. PARFUME has limitations in the modeling of the temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature and burnup across the compacts, which affects the accuracy of its predictions. Nevertheless, the comparisons on silver release lie in the same order of magnitude. Results show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of cesium by PARFUME. For particles with failed SiC layers, the over-prediction is by a factor of up to 3, corresponding to a potential over-estimation of the diffusivity in uranium oxycarbide (UCO) by a factor of up to 250. For intact particles, whose release is much lower, the over-prediction is by a factor of up to 100, which could be attributed to an over-estimated diffusivity in SiC by about 40% on average. The release of strontium from intact particles is also over-predicted by PARFUME, which also points towards an over-estimated diffusivity of strontium in either SiC or UCO, or possibly both. The measured strontium fractional release

  2. Comparison of silver, cesium, and strontium release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Collin, Blaise P.; Petti, David A.; Demkowicz, Paul A.; Maki, John T.

    2015-11-01

    The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from tristructural isotropic coated fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation experiment (AGR-1) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-1 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 620 days of irradiation to calculate the release of silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-1 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on release of these fission products from fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of silver in the compacts outside of the silicon carbide (SiC) layer. PARFUME-predicted fractional release of silver, cesium, and strontium was determined and compared to the PIE measurements. For silver, comparisons show a trend of over-prediction at low burnup and under-prediction at high burnup. PARFUME has limitations in the modeling of the temporal and spatial distributions of the temperature and burnup across the compacts, which affects the accuracy of its predictions. Nevertheless, the comparisons on silver release lie in the same order of magnitude. Results show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of cesium by PARFUME. For particles with failed SiC layers, the over-prediction is by a factor of up to 3, corresponding to a potential over-estimation of the diffusivity in uranium oxycarbide (UCO) by a factor of up to 250. For intact particles, whose release is much lower, the over-prediction is by a factor of up to 100, which could be attributed to an over-estimated diffusivity in SiC by about 40% on average. The release of strontium from intact particles is also over-predicted by PARFUME, which also points towards an over-estimated diffusivity of strontium in either SiC or UCO, or possibly both. The measured strontium fractional release

  3. Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Blaise Collin

    2014-09-01

    This report documents comparisons between post-irradiation examination measurements and model predictions of silver (Ag), cesium (Cs), and strontium (Sr) release from selected tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation test of the Advanced Gas Reactor program that occurred from December 2006 to November 2009 in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The modeling was performed using the particle fuel model computer code PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) developed at INL. PARFUME is an advanced gas-cooled reactor fuel performance modeling and analysis code (Miller 2009). It has been developed as an integrated mechanistic code that evaluates the thermal, mechanical, and physico-chemical behavior of fuel particles during irradiation to determine the failure probability of a population of fuel particles given the particle-to-particle statistical variations in physical dimensions and material properties that arise from the fuel fabrication process, accounting for all viable mechanisms that can lead to particle failure. The code also determines the diffusion of fission products from the fuel through the particle coating layers, and through the fuel matrix to the coolant boundary. The subsequent release of fission products is calculated at the compact level (release of fission products from the compact) but it can be assessed at the particle level by adjusting the diffusivity in the fuel matrix to very high values. Furthermore, the diffusivity of each layer can be individually set to a high value (typically 10-6 m2/s) to simulate a failed layer with no capability of fission product retention. In this study, the comparison to PIE focused on fission product release and because of the lack of failure in the irradiation, the probability of particle failure was not calculated. During the AGR-1 irradiation campaign, the fuel kernel produced and released fission products, which migrated through the successive

  4. Rapid and accurate evaluation of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers using near infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang; Huang, Chichao; Qian, Jian; Xiao, Jian; Li, Huan; Wen, Yongli; He, Xinhua; Ran, Wei; Shen, Qirong; Yu, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS) analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers. PMID:24586313

  5. Rapid and accurate evaluation of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers using near infrared spectroscopy.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chang; Huang, Chichao; Qian, Jian; Xiao, Jian; Li, Huan; Wen, Yongli; He, Xinhua; Ran, Wei; Shen, Qirong; Yu, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS) analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers.

  6. Rapid and Accurate Evaluation of the Quality of Commercial Organic Fertilizers Using Near Infrared Spectroscopy

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Chang; Huang, Chichao; Qian, Jian; Xiao, Jian; Li, Huan; Wen, Yongli; He, Xinhua; Ran, Wei; Shen, Qirong; Yu, Guanghui

    2014-01-01

    The composting industry has been growing rapidly in China because of a boom in the animal industry. Therefore, a rapid and accurate assessment of the quality of commercial organic fertilizers is of the utmost importance. In this study, a novel technique that combines near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy with partial least squares (PLS) analysis is developed for rapidly and accurately assessing commercial organic fertilizers quality. A total of 104 commercial organic fertilizers were collected from full-scale compost factories in Jiangsu Province, east China. In general, the NIR-PLS technique showed accurate predictions of the total organic matter, water soluble organic nitrogen, pH, and germination index; less accurate results of the moisture, total nitrogen, and electrical conductivity; and the least accurate results for water soluble organic carbon. Our results suggested the combined NIR-PLS technique could be applied as a valuable tool to rapidly and accurately assess the quality of commercial organic fertilizers. PMID:24586313

  7. Ceramic material life prediction: A program to translate ANSYS results to CARES/LIFE reliability analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Vonhermann, Pieter; Pintz, Adam

    1994-01-01

    This manual describes the use of the ANSCARES program to prepare a neutral file of FEM stress results taken from ANSYS Release 5.0, in the format needed by CARES/LIFE ceramics reliability program. It is intended for use by experienced users of ANSYS and CARES. Knowledge of compiling and linking FORTRAN programs is also required. Maximum use is made of existing routines (from other CARES interface programs and ANSYS routines) to extract the finite element results and prepare the neutral file for input to the reliability analysis. FORTRAN and machine language routines as described are used to read the ANSYS results file. Sub-element stresses are computed and written to a neutral file using FORTRAN subroutines which are nearly identical to those used in the NASCARES (MSC/NASTRAN to CARES) interface.

  8. An assessment of biodegradability of quaternary carbon-containing fragrance compounds: comparison of experimental OECD screening test results and in silico prediction data.

    PubMed

    Seyfried, Markus; Boschung, Alain

    2014-05-01

    An assessment of biodegradability was carried out for fragrance substances containing quaternary carbons by using data obtained from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) 301F screening tests for ready biodegradation and from Biowin and Catalogic prediction models. Despite an expected challenging profile, a relatively high percentage of common-use fragrance substances showed significant biodegradation under the stringent conditions applied in the OECD 301F test. Among 27 test compounds, 37% met the pass level criteria after 28 d, while another 26% indicated partial breakdown (≥20% biodegradation). For several compounds for which structural analogs were available, the authors found that structures that were rendered less water soluble by either the presence of an acetate ester or the absence of oxygen tended to degrade to a lesser extent compared to the primary alcohols or oxygenated counterparts under the test conditions applied. Difficulties were encountered when attempting to correlate experimental with in silico data. Whereas the Biowin model combinations currently recommended by regulatory agencies did not allow for a reliable discrimination between readily and nonbiodegradable compounds, only a comparably small proportion of the chemicals studied (30% and 63% depending on the model) fell within the applicability domain of Catalogic, a factor that critically reduced its predictive power. According to these results, currently neither Biowin nor Catalogic accurately reflects the potential for biodegradation of fragrance compounds containing quaternary carbons.

  9. Modeling the effect of cell-associated polymeric fluid layers on force spectroscopy measurements. Part II: experimental results and comparison with model predictions.

    PubMed

    Coldren, Faith M; Foteinopoulou, Katerina; Verbeeten, Wilco M H; Carroll, David L; Laso, Manuel

    2008-09-01

    In this paper, experimentally obtained force curves on Staphylococcus aureus are compared with a previously developed model that incorporates hydrodynamic effects of extracellular polysaccharides together with the elastic response of the bacterium and cantilever. Force-displacement curves were predicted without any adjustable parameters. It is demonstrated that experimental results can be accurately described by our model, especially if viscoelastic effects of the extracellular polysaccharide layer are taken into account. Polysaccharide layer viscoelasticity was treated by means of a multimode Phan-Thien/Tanner (PTT) constitutive equation. Typical maximum relaxation times range from 0.2 to 2 s, whereas the corresponding zero-shear-rate viscosities are 6-9 Pa.s, based on published, steady-state rheological measurements on Staphylococcus aureus polysaccharide extracted from its native environment. The bacterial elastic constant is found to be in the range 0.02-0.4 N/m, corresponding to bacterial wall Young's moduli in the range of a few hundred MPa. Repeatability of measurements performed on different bacteria is found to be only fair, due to large individuum variability, whereas repetitions of measurements on the same bacterium showed high reproducibility. Improved force-indentation curve predictions are expected if transient rheological characterization of extracellular polysaccharides is available. More desirable however is the direct, in vivo rheological characterization of the extracellular polysaccharide. A model-based analysis of experimental force-indentation curves shows that appreciable further experimental improvements are still necessary to achieve this goal. PMID:18666789

  10. Quantitative comparison between theoretical predictions and experimental results for Bragg spectroscopy of a strongly interacting Fermi superfluid

    SciTech Connect

    Zou Peng; Kuhnle, Eva D.; Vale, Chris J.; Hu Hui

    2010-12-15

    Theoretical predictions for the dynamic structure factor of a harmonically trapped Fermi superfluid near the Bose-Einstein condensate-Bardeen-Cooper-Schrieffer (BEC-BCS) crossover are compared with recent Bragg spectroscopy measurements at large transferred momenta. The calculations are based on a random-phase (or time-dependent Hartree-Fock-Gorkov) approximation generalized to the strongly interacting regime. Excellent agreement with experimental spectra at low temperatures is obtained, with no free parameters. Theoretical predictions for zero-temperature static structure factor are also found to agree well with the experimental results and independent theoretical calculations based on the exact Tan relations. The temperature dependence of the structure factors at unitarity is predicted.

  11. Is the Presence of a Results-Oriented Professional Learning Community Predictive of Student Achievement?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sullivan, Michael E.

    2013-01-01

    This study investigated the relationships between teacher collaboration practices known as working as a professional learning community (PLC) and student performance. Through a review of the current literature, an operational framework of PLCs was developed that distinguished results-oriented from inquiry-oriented PLCs. The study considered the…

  12. Active Learning in Large Classes: Can Small Interventions Produce Greater Results than Are Statistically Predictable?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Adrian, Lynne M.

    2010-01-01

    Six online postings and six one-minute papers were added to an introductory first-year class, forming 5 percent of the final grade, but represented significant intervention in class functioning and amount of active learning. Active learning produced results in student performance beyond the percentage of the final grade it constituted. (Contains 1…

  13. Improving Program Results through the Use of Predictive Operational Performance Indicators: A Canadian Case Study

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Barrados, Maria; Blain, J. S.

    2013-01-01

    In Canada, in-depth evaluations of federal programs are intended to occur every 5 years. As such, evaluation is a periodic retrospective (lag) indicator examining results achieved versus program objectives. In a Canadian context, stand-alone evaluations have proved challenging to implement, time consuming, and not well adapted to annual management…

  14. Erratum: new numerical results and novel effective string predictions for Wilson loops

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Billó, M.; Caselle, M.; Pellegrini, R.

    2013-04-01

    We correct a few misprints present in the published version, regarding eq.s (4.30), (4.35), (A.4) and (A.6). Plots and results of the paper are not affected since they were derived from the correct formulae.

  15. Prediction of Asbestos Exposure Resulting From Asbestos Aerosolization Determined Using the Releasable Asbestos Field Sampler (RAFS)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Activity-based sampling (ABS) used to evaluate breathing zone exposure to a contaminant present in soil resulting from various activities, involves breathing zone sampling for contaminants while that activity is performed. A probabilistic model based upon aerosol physics and flui...

  16. A review of numerical models for predicting the energy deposition and resultant thermal response of humans exposed to electromagnetic fields

    SciTech Connect

    Spiegal, R.J.

    1984-08-01

    For humans exposed to electromagnetic (EM) radiation, the resulting thermophysiologic response is not well understood. Because it is unlikely that this information will be determined from quantitative experimentation, it is necessary to develop theoretical models which predict the resultant thermal response after exposure to EM fields. These calculations are difficult and involved because the human thermoregulatory system is very complex. In this paper, the important numerical models are reviewed and possibilities for future development are discussed.

  17. Results.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zemsky, Robert; Shaman, Susan; Shapiro, Daniel B.

    2001-01-01

    Describes the Collegiate Results Instrument (CRI), which measures a range of collegiate outcomes for alumni 6 years after graduation. The CRI was designed to target alumni from institutions across market segments and assess their values, abilities, work skills, occupations, and pursuit of lifelong learning. (EV)

  18. The Rhesus Monkey Connectome Predicts Disrupted Functional Networks Resulting from Pharmacogenetic Inactivation of the Amygdala.

    PubMed

    Grayson, David S; Bliss-Moreau, Eliza; Machado, Christopher J; Bennett, Jeffrey; Shen, Kelly; Grant, Kathleen A; Fair, Damien A; Amaral, David G

    2016-07-20

    Contemporary research suggests that the mammalian brain is a complex system, implying that damage to even a single functional area could have widespread consequences across the system. To test this hypothesis, we pharmacogenetically inactivated the rhesus monkey amygdala, a subcortical region with distributed and well-defined cortical connectivity. We then examined the impact of that perturbation on global network organization using resting-state functional connectivity MRI. Amygdala inactivation disrupted amygdalocortical communication and distributed corticocortical coupling across multiple functional brain systems. Altered coupling was explained using a graph-based analysis of experimentally established structural connectivity to simulate disconnection of the amygdala. Communication capacity via monosynaptic and polysynaptic pathways, in aggregate, largely accounted for the correlational structure of endogenous brain activity and many of the non-local changes that resulted from amygdala inactivation. These results highlight the structural basis of distributed neural activity and suggest a strategy for linking focal neuropathology to remote neurophysiological changes.

  19. The Rhesus Monkey Connectome Predicts Disrupted Functional Networks Resulting from Pharmacogenetic Inactivation of the Amygdala.

    PubMed

    Grayson, David S; Bliss-Moreau, Eliza; Machado, Christopher J; Bennett, Jeffrey; Shen, Kelly; Grant, Kathleen A; Fair, Damien A; Amaral, David G

    2016-07-20

    Contemporary research suggests that the mammalian brain is a complex system, implying that damage to even a single functional area could have widespread consequences across the system. To test this hypothesis, we pharmacogenetically inactivated the rhesus monkey amygdala, a subcortical region with distributed and well-defined cortical connectivity. We then examined the impact of that perturbation on global network organization using resting-state functional connectivity MRI. Amygdala inactivation disrupted amygdalocortical communication and distributed corticocortical coupling across multiple functional brain systems. Altered coupling was explained using a graph-based analysis of experimentally established structural connectivity to simulate disconnection of the amygdala. Communication capacity via monosynaptic and polysynaptic pathways, in aggregate, largely accounted for the correlational structure of endogenous brain activity and many of the non-local changes that resulted from amygdala inactivation. These results highlight the structural basis of distributed neural activity and suggest a strategy for linking focal neuropathology to remote neurophysiological changes. PMID:27477019

  20. Prediction of external corrosion for UF{sub 6} cylinders: Results of an empirical method

    SciTech Connect

    Lyon, B.F.

    1995-06-01

    Wall thickness data for depleted LTF, (DU) cylinders in above-ground storage at three Department of Energy (DOE) sites (Oak Ridge, TN; Paducah, KY; Portsmouth, OH) were analyzed in order to address the following questions: How many cylinders may have breaches now? and, What will the conditions be like in 2020? This report summarizes preliminary results of the analyses conducted. These results are to be used as input into models for estimating risks and hazards associated with the cylinders in the various conditions. These models will then be used as a basis for implementing engineering fixes where possible and for management decisions on corrective actions. This is part of the overall assessment of the risks and hazards within the DU management program.

  1. Deriving In-Use PHEV Fuel Economy Predictions from Standardized Test Cycle Results

    SciTech Connect

    John Smart; Richard "Barney" Carlson; Jeff Gonder; Aaron Brooker

    2009-09-01

    Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) have potential to reduce or eliminate the U.S. dependence on foreign oil. Quantifying the amount of petroleum each uses, however, is challenging. To estimate in-use fuel economy for conventional vehicles the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) conducts chassis dynamometer tests on standard historic drive cycles and then adjusts the resulting “raw” fuel economy measurements downward. Various publications, such as the forthcoming update to the SAE J1711 recommended practice for PHEV fuel economy testing, address the challenges of applying standard test procedures to PHEVs. This paper explores the issue of how to apply an adjustment method to such “raw” PHEV dynamometer test results in order to more closely estimate the in-use fuel and electricity consumption characteristics of these vehicles. The paper discusses two possible adjustment methods, and evaluates one method by applying it to dynamometer data and comparing the result to in-use fleet data (on an aftermarket conversion PHEV). The paper will also present the methodologies used to collect the data needed for this comparison.

  2. HTR-2014 Paper Comparison of fission product release predictions using PARFUME with results from the AGR-1 irradiation experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Blaise Collin

    2001-10-01

    The PARFUME (PARticle FUel ModEl) code was used to predict fission product release from tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated fuel particles and compacts during the first irradiation experiment (AGR-1) of the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification program. The PARFUME model for the AGR-1 experiment used the fuel compact volume average temperature for each of the 620 days of irradiation to calculate the release of fission products silver, cesium, and strontium from a representative particle for a select number of AGR-1 compacts. Post-irradiation examination (PIE) measurements provided data on release of fission products from fuel compacts and fuel particles, and retention of fission products in the compacts outside of the SiC layer. PARFUME-predicted fractional release of these fission products was determined and compared to the PIE measurements. Results show an overall over-prediction of the fractional release of cesium by PARFUME. For particles with failed silicon carbide (SiC) layers, the over-prediction is by a factor of about two, corresponding to an over-estimation of the diffusivity in uranium oxycarbide (UCO) by a factor of about 100. For intact particles, whose release is much lower, the over-prediction is by an average of about an order of magnitude, which could additionally be attributed to an over-estimated diffusivity in SiC by about 30%. The release of strontium from intact particles is also over-estimated by PARFUME, which also points towards an over-estimated diffusivity of strontium in either SiC or UCO, or possibly both. The measured strontium fractional release from intact particles varied considerably from compact to compact, making it difficult to assess the effective over-estimation of the diffusivities. Furthermore, the release of strontium from particles with failed SiC is difficult to observe experimentally due to the release from intact particles, preventing any conclusions to be made on the accuracy or validity of the

  3. Predicting episodic memory performance using different biomarkers: results from Argentina-Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

    PubMed Central

    Russo, María Julieta; Cohen, Gabriela; Chrem Mendez, Patricio; Campos, Jorge; Nahas, Federico E; Surace, Ezequiel I; Vazquez, Silvia; Gustafson, Deborah; Guinjoan, Salvador; Allegri, Ricardo F; Sevlever, Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Argentina-Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (Arg-ADNI) is the first ADNI study to be performed in Latin America at a medical center with the appropriate infrastructure. Our objective was to describe baseline characteristics and to examine whether biomarkers related to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) physiopathology were associated with worse memory performance. Patients and methods Fifteen controls and 28 mild cognitive impairment and 13 AD dementia subjects were included. For Arg-ADNI, all biomarker parameters and neuropsychological tests of ADNI-II were adopted. Results of positron emission tomography (PET) with fluorodeoxyglucose and 11C-Pittsburgh compound-B (PIB-PET) were available from all participants. Cerebrospinal fluid biomarker results were available from 39 subjects. Results A total of 56 participants were included and underwent baseline evaluation. The three groups were similar with respect to years of education and sex, and they differed in age (F=5.10, P=0.01). Mean scores for the baseline measurements of the neuropsychological evaluation differed significantly among the three groups at P<0.001, showing a continuum in their neuropsychological performance. No significant correlations were found between the principal measures (long-delay recall, C-Pittsburgh compound-B scan, left hippocampal volume, and APOEε4) and either age, sex, or education (P>0.1). Baseline amyloid deposition and left hippocampal volume separated the three diagnostic groups and correlated with the memory performance (P<0.001). Conclusion Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data revealed links between cognition, structural changes, and biomarkers. Follow-up of a larger and more representative cohort, particularly analyzing cerebrospinal fluid and brain biomarkers, will allow better characterization of AD in our country.

  4. Predicting episodic memory performance using different biomarkers: results from Argentina-Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative

    PubMed Central

    Russo, María Julieta; Cohen, Gabriela; Chrem Mendez, Patricio; Campos, Jorge; Nahas, Federico E; Surace, Ezequiel I; Vazquez, Silvia; Gustafson, Deborah; Guinjoan, Salvador; Allegri, Ricardo F; Sevlever, Gustavo

    2016-01-01

    Purpose Argentina-Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (Arg-ADNI) is the first ADNI study to be performed in Latin America at a medical center with the appropriate infrastructure. Our objective was to describe baseline characteristics and to examine whether biomarkers related to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) physiopathology were associated with worse memory performance. Patients and methods Fifteen controls and 28 mild cognitive impairment and 13 AD dementia subjects were included. For Arg-ADNI, all biomarker parameters and neuropsychological tests of ADNI-II were adopted. Results of positron emission tomography (PET) with fluorodeoxyglucose and 11C-Pittsburgh compound-B (PIB-PET) were available from all participants. Cerebrospinal fluid biomarker results were available from 39 subjects. Results A total of 56 participants were included and underwent baseline evaluation. The three groups were similar with respect to years of education and sex, and they differed in age (F=5.10, P=0.01). Mean scores for the baseline measurements of the neuropsychological evaluation differed significantly among the three groups at P<0.001, showing a continuum in their neuropsychological performance. No significant correlations were found between the principal measures (long-delay recall, C-Pittsburgh compound-B scan, left hippocampal volume, and APOEε4) and either age, sex, or education (P>0.1). Baseline amyloid deposition and left hippocampal volume separated the three diagnostic groups and correlated with the memory performance (P<0.001). Conclusion Cross-sectional analysis of baseline data revealed links between cognition, structural changes, and biomarkers. Follow-up of a larger and more representative cohort, particularly analyzing cerebrospinal fluid and brain biomarkers, will allow better characterization of AD in our country. PMID:27695331

  5. Predicting social work students' interest in gerontology: results from an international sample.

    PubMed

    Chonody, Jill M; Wang, Donna

    2014-01-01

    The need for social workers with a specialization in gerontology has become a global priority. The purpose of this study was to explore social work students' interest in gerontology. This cross-sectional survey was completed by 1,042 students from the United States, England, and Australia, and only 5.4% of the sample indicated an interest in gerontology. Results of the logistic regression found that personal aging beliefs and the frequency of time spent with an older adult were significant in explaining gerontological interest. The infusion of aging content may facilitate further advancement in the field, but additional strategies may also be needed.

  6. Experimental Results and Predictive Calculations for Pinhole Collimators Used in Small Animal Nuclear Imaging*

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ng, Luke; Welsh, Robert E.; Bradley, Eric L.; Saha, Margaret S.; Kross, Brian; Majewski, Stan; Popov, Vladimir; Smith, Mark F.; Weisenberger, Andrew G.; Wojcik, Randolph

    2001-04-01

    Biological ligands tagged with ^125 I have been used in studies including comparisons between normal and diabetic mice in vivo. In order to enhance the image of the mouse pancreas we have tested a number of pinhole collimators coupled to two types of position sensitive photomultiplier tube. Various shapes of pinhole have been tested. Results will be described and discussed. *Supported in part by The Department of Energy, The National Science Foundation, The American Diabetes Association, The Howard Hughes Foundation, The Virginia Commonwealth Health Research Board and the Thomas F. and Kate Miller Jeffress Memorial Trust.

  7. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates for predicting presidential election results in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Ansah-Narh, Theophilus; Asah-Asante, Richard; Minkah, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah, Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election results of Ghana. The methodology develops a model for prediction of the 2016 presidential election results in Ghana using the Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap estimates. The results were that the ruling NDC may marginally win the 2016 Presidential Elections but would not obtain the more than 50 % votes to be declared an outright winner. This means that there is going to be a run-off election between the two giant political parties: the ruling NDC and the major opposition party, NPP. The prediction for the 2016 Presidential run-off election between the NDC and the NPP was rather in favour of the major opposition party, the NPP with a little over the 50 % votes obtained. PMID:26435890

  8. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap percentile estimates for predicting presidential election results in Ghana.

    PubMed

    Nortey, Ezekiel N N; Ansah-Narh, Theophilus; Asah-Asante, Richard; Minkah, Richard

    2015-01-01

    Although, there exists numerous literature on the procedure for forecasting or predicting election results, in Ghana only opinion poll strategies have been used. To fill this gap, the paper develops Markov chain models for forecasting the 2016 presidential election results at the Regional, Zonal (i.e. Savannah, Coastal and Forest) and the National levels using past presidential election results of Ghana. The methodology develops a model for prediction of the 2016 presidential election results in Ghana using the Markov chains Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology with bootstrap estimates. The results were that the ruling NDC may marginally win the 2016 Presidential Elections but would not obtain the more than 50 % votes to be declared an outright winner. This means that there is going to be a run-off election between the two giant political parties: the ruling NDC and the major opposition party, NPP. The prediction for the 2016 Presidential run-off election between the NDC and the NPP was rather in favour of the major opposition party, the NPP with a little over the 50 % votes obtained.

  9. Tailoring a psychophysical discrimination experiment upon assessment of the psychometric function: Predictions and results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vilardi, Andrea; Tabarelli, Davide; Ricci, Leonardo

    2015-02-01

    Decision making is a widespread research topic and plays a crucial role in neuroscience as well as in other research and application fields of, for example, biology, medicine and economics. The most basic implementation of decision making, namely binary discrimination, is successfully interpreted by means of signal detection theory (SDT), a statistical model that is deeply linked to physics. An additional, widespread tool to investigate discrimination ability is the psychometric function, which measures the probability of a given response as a function of the magnitude of a physical quantity underlying the stimulus. However, the link between psychometric functions and binary discrimination experiments is often neglected or misinterpreted. Aim of the present paper is to provide a detailed description of an experimental investigation on a prototypical discrimination task and to discuss the results in terms of SDT. To this purpose, we provide an outline of the theory and describe the implementation of two behavioural experiments in the visual modality: upon the assessment of the so-called psychometric function, we show how to tailor a binary discrimination experiment on performance and decisional bias, and to measure these quantities on a statistical base. Attention is devoted to the evaluation of uncertainties, an aspect which is also often overlooked in the scientific literature.

  10. Does social status predict adult smoking and obesity? Results from the 2000 Mexican National Health Survey

    PubMed Central

    Buttenheim, A.M.; Wong, R.; Goldman, N.; Pebley, A.R.

    2009-01-01

    Socioeconomic status is generally associated with better health, but recent evidence suggests that this ‘social gradient’ in health is far from universal. This study examines whether social gradients in smoking and obesity in Mexico—a country in the midst of rapid socioeconomic change—conform to or diverge from results for richer countries. Using a nationally-representative sample of 39 129 Mexican adults, we calculate the odds of smoking and of being obese by educational attainment and by household wealth. We conclude that socioeconomic determinants of smoking and obesity in Mexico are complex, with some flat gradients and some strong positive or negative gradients. Higher social status (education and assets) is associated with more smoking and less obesity for urban women. Higher status rural women also smoke more, but obesity for these women has a non-linear relationship to education. For urban men, higher asset levels (but not education) are associated with obesity, whereas education is protective of smoking. Higher status rural men with more assets are more likely to smoke and be obese. As household wealth, education, and urbanisation continue to increase in Mexico, these patterns suggest potential targets for public health intervention now and in the future. PMID:19367478

  11. Geopositioning accuracy prediction results for registration of imaging and nonimaging sensors using moving objects

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taylor, Charles R.; Dolloff, John T.; Lofy, Brian A.; Luker, Steve A.

    2003-08-01

    BAE SYSTEMS is developing a "4D Registration" capability for DARPA's Dynamic Tactical Targeting program. This will further advance our automatic image registration capability to use moving objects for image registration, and extend our current capability to include the registration of non-imaging sensors. Moving objects produce signals that are identifiable across multiple sensors such as radar moving target indicators, unattended ground sensors, and imaging sensors. Correspondences of those signals across sensor types make it possible to improve the support data accuracy for each of the sensors involved in the correspondence. The amount of accuracy improvement possible, and the effects of the accuracy improvement on geopositioning with the sensors, is a complex problem. The main factors that contribute to the complexity are the sensor-to-target geometry, the a priori sensor support data accuracy, sensor measurement accuracy, the distribution of identified objects in ground space, and the motion and motion uncertainty of the identified objects. As part of the 4D Registration effort, BAE SYSTEMS is conducting a sensitivity study to investigate the complexities and benefits of multisensor registration with moving objects. The results of the study will be summarized.

  12. Low heel ultrasound parameters predict mortality in men: results from the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS)

    PubMed Central

    Pye, Stephen R.; Vanderschueren, Dirk; Boonen, Steven; Gielen, Evelien; Adams, Judith E.; Ward, Kate A.; Lee, David M.; Bartfai, György; Casanueva, Felipe F.; Finn, Joseph D.; Forti, Gianni; Giwercman, Aleksander; Han, Thang S.; Huhtaniemi, Ilpo T.; Kula, Krzysztof; Lean, Michael E.; Pendleton, Neil; Punab, Margus; Wu, Frederick C.; O'Neill, Terence W.

    2015-01-01

    Background: low bone mineral density measured by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry is associated with increased mortality. The relationship between other skeletal phenotypes and mortality is unclear. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between quantitative heel ultrasound parameters and mortality in a cohort of European men. Methods: men aged 40–79 years were recruited for participation in a prospective study of male ageing: the European Male Ageing Study (EMAS). At baseline, subjects attended for quantitative ultrasound (QUS) of the heel (Hologic—SAHARA) and completed questionnaires on lifestyle factors and co-morbidities. Height and weight were measured. After a median of 4.3 years, subjects were invited to attend a follow-up assessment, and reasons for non-participation, including death, were recorded. The relationship between QUS parameters (broadband ultrasound attenuation [BUA] and speed of sound [SOS]) and mortality was assessed using Cox proportional hazards model. Results: from a total of 3,244 men (mean age 59.8, standard deviation [SD] 10.8 years), 185 (5.7%) died during the follow-up period. After adjusting for age, centre, body mass index, physical activity, current smoking, number of co-morbidities and general health, each SD decrease in BUA was associated with a 20% higher risk of mortality (hazard ratio [HR] per SD = 1.2; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.0–1.4). Compared with those in higher quintiles (2nd–5th), those in the lowest quintile of BUA and SOS had a greater mortality risk (BUA: HR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1–2.3 and SOS: HR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.2–2.2). Conclusion: lower heel ultrasound parameters are associated with increased mortality in European men. PMID:26162912

  13. MHD seawater thruster performance: A comparison of predictions with experimental results from a two Tesla test facility

    SciTech Connect

    Picologlou, B.F.; Doss, E.D.; Geyer, H.K. ); Sikes, W.C.; Ranellone, R.F. )

    1992-01-01

    A two Tesla test facility was designed, built, and operated to investigate the performance of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) seawater thrusters. The results of this investigation are used to validate a design oriented MHD thruster performance computer code. The thruster performance code consists of a one-dimensional MHD hydrodynamic model coupled to a two-dimensional electrical model. The code includes major loss mechanisms affecting the performance of the thruster. Among these losses are the joule dissipation losses, frictional losses, electrical end losses, and single electrode potential losses. The facility test loop, its components, and their design are presented in detail. Additionally, the test matrix and its rationale are discussed. Representative experimental results of the test program are presented, and are compared to pretest computer model predictions. Good agreement between predicted and measured data has served to validate the thruster performance computer models.

  14. Development and application of a method for predicting rotor free wake positions and resulting rotor blade air loads. Volume 1: Model and results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Sadler, S. G.

    1971-01-01

    Rotor wake geometries are predicted by a process similar to the startup of a rotor in a free stream. An array of discrete trailing and shed vortices is generated with vortex strengths corresponding to stepwise radial and azimuthal blade circulations. The array of shed and trailing vortices is limited to an arbitrary number of azimuthal steps behind each blade. The remainder of the wake model of each blade is an arbitrary number of trailing vortices. Vortex element end points were allowed to be transported by the resultant velocity of the free stream and vortex-induced velocities. Wake geometry, wake flow, and wake-induced velocity influence coefficients are generated by this program for use in the blade loads portion of the calculations. Blade loads computations include the effects of nonuniform inflow due to a free wake, nonlinear airfoil characteristics, and response of flexible blades to the applied loads. Computed wake flows and blade loads are compared with experimentally measured data. Predicted blade loads, response and shears and moments are obtained for a model rotor system having two independent rotors. The effects of advance ratio, vertical separation of rotors, different blade radius ratios, and different azimuthal spacing of the blades of one rotor with respect to the other are investigated.

  15. Progression of coronary artery calcification seems to be inevitable, but predictable - results of the Heinz Nixdorf Recall (HNR) study†

    PubMed Central

    Erbel, Raimund; Lehmann, Nils; Churzidse, Sofia; Rauwolf, Michael; Mahabadi, Amir A.; Möhlenkamp, Stefan; Moebus, Susanne; Bauer, Marcus; Kälsch, Hagen; Budde, Thomas; Montag, Michael; Schmermund, Axel; Stang, Andreas; Führer-Sakel, Dagmar; Weimar, Christian; Roggenbuck, Ulla; Dragano, Nico; Jöckel, Karl-Heinz

    2014-01-01

    Aim Coronary artery calcification (CAC), as a sign of atherosclerosis, can be detected and progression quantified using computed tomography (CT). We develop a tool for predicting CAC progression. Methods and results In 3481 participants (45–74 years, 53.1% women) CAC percentiles at baseline (CACb) and after five years (CAC5y) were evaluated, demonstrating progression along gender-specific percentiles, which showed exponentially shaped age-dependence. Using quantile regression on the log-scale (log(CACb+1)) we developed a tool to individually predict CAC5y, and compared to observed CAC5y. The difference between observed and predicted CAC5y (log-scale, mean±SD) was 0.08±1.11 and 0.06±1.29 in men and women. Agreement reached a kappa-value of 0.746 (95% confidence interval: 0.732–0.760) and concordance correlation (log-scale) of 0.886 (0.879–0.893). Explained variance of observed by predicted log(CAC5y+1) was 80.1% and 72.0% in men and women, and 81.0 and 73.6% including baseline risk factors. Evaluating the tool in 1940 individuals with CACb>0 and CACb<400 at baseline, of whom 242 (12.5%) developed CAC5y>400, yielded a sensitivity of 59.5%, specificity 96.1%, (+) and (−) predictive values of 68.3% and 94.3%. A pre-defined acceptance range around predicted CAC5y contained 68.1% of observed CAC5y; only 20% were expected by chance. Age, blood pressure, lipid-lowering medication, diabetes, and smoking contributed to progression above the acceptance range in men and, excepting age, in women. Conclusion CAC nearly inevitably progresses with limited influence of cardiovascular risk factors. This allowed the development of a mathematical tool for prediction of individual CAC progression, enabling anticipation of the age when CAC thresholds of high risk are reached. PMID:25062951

  16. Improving the Accuracy of Whole Genome Prediction for Complex Traits Using the Results of Genome Wide Association Studies

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Zhe; Ober, Ulrike; Erbe, Malena; Zhang, Hao; Gao, Ning; He, Jinlong; Li, Jiaqi; Simianer, Henner

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the whole genomic variation of complex traits to predict the yet-to-be observed phenotypes or unobserved genetic values via whole genome prediction (WGP) and to infer the underlying genetic architecture via genome wide association study (GWAS) is an interesting and fast developing area in the context of human disease studies as well as in animal and plant breeding. Though thousands of significant loci for several species were detected via GWAS in the past decade, they were not used directly to improve WGP due to lack of proper models. Here, we propose a generalized way of building trait-specific genomic relationship matrices which can exploit GWAS results in WGP via a best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) model for which we suggest the name BLUP|GA. Results from two illustrative examples show that using already existing GWAS results from public databases in BLUP|GA improved the accuracy of WGP for two out of the three model traits in a dairy cattle data set, and for nine out of the 11 traits in a rice diversity data set, compared to the reference methods GBLUP and BayesB. While BLUP|GA outperforms BayesB, its required computing time is comparable to GBLUP. Further simulation results suggest that accounting for publicly available GWAS results is potentially more useful for WGP utilizing smaller data sets and/or traits of low heritability, depending on the genetic architecture of the trait under consideration. To our knowledge, this is the first study incorporating public GWAS results formally into the standard GBLUP model and we think that the BLUP|GA approach deserves further investigations in animal breeding, plant breeding as well as human genetics. PMID:24663104

  17. Improving the accuracy of whole genome prediction for complex traits using the results of genome wide association studies.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Zhe; Ober, Ulrike; Erbe, Malena; Zhang, Hao; Gao, Ning; He, Jinlong; Li, Jiaqi; Simianer, Henner

    2014-01-01

    Utilizing the whole genomic variation of complex traits to predict the yet-to-be observed phenotypes or unobserved genetic values via whole genome prediction (WGP) and to infer the underlying genetic architecture via genome wide association study (GWAS) is an interesting and fast developing area in the context of human disease studies as well as in animal and plant breeding. Though thousands of significant loci for several species were detected via GWAS in the past decade, they were not used directly to improve WGP due to lack of proper models. Here, we propose a generalized way of building trait-specific genomic relationship matrices which can exploit GWAS results in WGP via a best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) model for which we suggest the name BLUP|GA. Results from two illustrative examples show that using already existing GWAS results from public databases in BLUP|GA improved the accuracy of WGP for two out of the three model traits in a dairy cattle data set, and for nine out of the 11 traits in a rice diversity data set, compared to the reference methods GBLUP and BayesB. While BLUP|GA outperforms BayesB, its required computing time is comparable to GBLUP. Further simulation results suggest that accounting for publicly available GWAS results is potentially more useful for WGP utilizing smaller data sets and/or traits of low heritability, depending on the genetic architecture of the trait under consideration. To our knowledge, this is the first study incorporating public GWAS results formally into the standard GBLUP model and we think that the BLUP|GA approach deserves further investigations in animal breeding, plant breeding as well as human genetics.

  18. Pristine and Surface-Modified Polymers in LEO: MISSE Results versus Predictive Models and Ground-Based Testing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iskanderova, Zelina; Kleiman, Jacob I.; Tennyson, Rod C.

    2009-01-01

    Space flight data, collected and published by NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) team for a set of pristine polymeric materials selected, compiled, and tested in two LEO flight experiments at the International Space Station, as part of the "Materials International Space Station Experiment" (MISSE), has been used for comparison with previously developed atomic oxygen erosion predictive models. The same set of materials was used for a ground-based fast atomic beam (FAO) experimental erosion study at ITL/UTIAS, where the FAO exposure was performed mostly at a standard fluence of 2×1020 cm-2, with the results collected in a database for the development of a prototype of predictive software. A comparison of MISSE-1 flight data with two predictive correlations has shown good agreement, confirming the developed approach to polymers erosion resistance forecast that might be used also for newly developed or untested in space polymeric materials. A number of surface-modified thin film space polymers, treated by two ITL-developed and patented surface modification technologies, Implantox™ [5] and Photosil™ [6], have been also included in MISSE flight experiment. The results from those MISSE samples have shown full protection of AO-sensitive main space-related hydrocarbon polymers, such as Kapton HN, back-metalized Kapton H and Kapton E, and Mylar, when treated by Implantox™ surface modification technology and significant erosion resistance enhancement up to full protection by Photosil™ treatment.

  19. 3D models of slow motions in the Earth's crust and upper mantle in the source zones of seismically active regions and their comparison with highly accurate observational data: II. Results of numerical calculations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Molodenskii, S. M.; Molodenskii, M. S.; Begitova, T. A.

    2016-09-01

    In the first part of the paper, a new method was developed for solving the inverse problem of coseismic and postseismic deformations in the real (imperfectly elastic, radially and horizontally heterogeneous, self-gravitating) Earth with hydrostatic initial stresses from highly accurate modern satellite data. The method is based on the decomposition of the sought parameters in the orthogonalized basis. The method was suggested for estimating the ambiguity of the solution of the inverse problem for coseismic and postseismic deformations. For obtaining this estimate, the orthogonal complement is constructed to the n-dimensional space spanned by the system of functional derivatives of the residuals in the system of n observed and model data on the coseismic and postseismic displacements at a variety of sites on the ground surface with small variations in the models. Below, we present the results of the numerical modeling of the elastic displacements of the ground surface, which were based on calculating Green's functions of the real Earth for the plane dislocation surface and different orientations of the displacement vector as described in part I of the paper. The calculations were conducted for the model of a horizontally homogeneous but radially heterogeneous selfgravitating Earth with hydrostatic initial stresses and the mantle rheology described by the Lomnitz logarithmic creep function according to (M. Molodenskii, 2014). We compare our results with the previous numerical calculations (Okado, 1985; 1992) for the simplest model of a perfectly elastic nongravitating homogeneous Earth. It is shown that with the source depths starting from the first hundreds of kilometers and with magnitudes of about 8.0 and higher, the discrepancies significantly exceed the errors of the observations and should therefore be taken into account. We present the examples of the numerical calculations of the creep function of the crust and upper mantle for the coseismic deformations. We

  20. Lava heating and loading of ice sheets on early Mars: Predictions for meltwater generation, groundwater recharge, and resulting landforms

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cassanelli, James P.; Head, James W.

    2016-06-01

    Recent modeling studies of the early Mars climate predict a predominantly cold climate, characterized by the formation of regional ice sheets across the highland areas of Mars. Formation of the predicted "icy highlands" ice sheets is coincident with a peak in the volcanic flux of Mars involving the emplacement of the Late Noachian - Early Hesperian ridged plains unit. We explore the relationship between the predicted early Mars "icy highlands" ice sheets, and the extensive early flood volcanism to gain insight into the surface conditions prevalent during the Late Noachian to Early Hesperian transition period. Using Hesperia Planum as a type area, we develop an ice sheet lava heating and loading model. We quantitatively assess the thermal and melting processes involved in the lava heating and loading process following the chronological sequence of lava emplacement. We test a broad range of parameters to thoroughly constrain the lava heating and loading process and outline predictions for the formation of resulting geological features. We apply the theoretical model to a study area within the Hesperia Planum region and assess the observed geology against predictions derived from the ice sheet lava heating and loading model. Due to the highly cratered nature of the Noachian highlands terrain onto which the volcanic plains were emplaced, we predict highly asymmetrical lava loading conditions. Crater interiors are predicted to accumulate greater thicknesses of lava over more rapid timescales, while in the intercrater plains, lava accumulation occurs over longer timescales and does not reach great thicknesses. We find that top-down melting due to conductive heat transfer from supraglacial lava flows is generally limited when the emplaced lava flows are less than ∼10 m thick, but is very significant at lava flow thicknesses of ∼100 m or greater. We find that bottom-up cryosphere and ice sheet melting is most likely to occur within crater interiors where lavas

  1. Development of an advanced, high-frequency GPR technique for the assessment of concrete structures: from modeling predictions to experimental results

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cheilakou, Eleni; Matikas, Theodore E.

    2016-04-01

    The main objective of this paper is to develop a portable, advanced and high operating frequency GPR prototype system, which will be able to provide an increased sensitivity and resolution in terms of defects detectability at a penetration depth range up to 40-50 cm in concrete. For this purpose, the theoretical assessment of multiple GPR antenna-frequency approaches was initially performed using electromagnetic wave simulation tools for the propagation of radar waves within concrete, aiming to predict the required antenna frequency and characteristics that are most effective in detecting internal concrete elements and defects of interest found in realistic structures. Form the modeling results obtained, which are described in this paper, a portable, advanced, single-channel GPR system was developed, which uses a highfrequency shielded dipole antenna in monostatic arrangement and operates at a central operating frequency of 2600 MHz. Finally, the evaluation of the performance of the developed GPR technology was carried out under laboratory conditions, where concrete samples of varying dimensions and with different embedded structural features of known characteristics were tested. The validation results produced from this study indicated the high potential and efficiency of the developed GPR device to accurately detect internal concrete features with superior resolution and with sufficient penetration for concrete to be adequately resolved in depths up to 40 cm.

  2. Accurate Optical Reference Catalogs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zacharias, N.

    2006-08-01

    Current and near future all-sky astrometric catalogs on the ICRF are reviewed with the emphasis on reference star data at optical wavelengths for user applications. The standard error of a Hipparcos Catalogue star position is now about 15 mas per coordinate. For the Tycho-2 data it is typically 20 to 100 mas, depending on magnitude. The USNO CCD Astrograph Catalog (UCAC) observing program was completed in 2004 and reductions toward the final UCAC3 release are in progress. This all-sky reference catalogue will have positional errors of 15 to 70 mas for stars in the 10 to 16 mag range, with a high degree of completeness. Proper motions for the about 60 million UCAC stars will be derived by combining UCAC astrometry with available early epoch data, including yet unpublished scans of the complete set of AGK2, Hamburg Zone astrograph and USNO Black Birch programs. Accurate positional and proper motion data are combined in the Naval Observatory Merged Astrometric Dataset (NOMAD) which includes Hipparcos, Tycho-2, UCAC2, USNO-B1, NPM+SPM plate scan data for astrometry, and is supplemented by multi-band optical photometry as well as 2MASS near infrared photometry. The Milli-Arcsecond Pathfinder Survey (MAPS) mission is currently being planned at USNO. This is a micro-satellite to obtain 1 mas positions, parallaxes, and 1 mas/yr proper motions for all bright stars down to about 15th magnitude. This program will be supplemented by a ground-based program to reach 18th magnitude on the 5 mas level.

  3. Prediction and exploitation of basement-controlled production trends in Piceance Basin fractured tight gas reservoirs: Results of an integrated analysis

    SciTech Connect

    Hoak, T.E.; Klawitter, A.L.

    1995-12-31

    The ability to delineate and accurately predict fracured reservoir conditions represents critical information necessary for field development srategies, and development of play concepts in less-developed areas. To demonstrate relationships between fracture-controlled production, stratigraphy and structural geology, the Piceance Basin is being used as the site for an integrated fracture detection and reservoir characterization program utilizing high-resolution aeromagnetics, seismic, and conventional subsurface structural and stratigraphic mapping. In the Piceance Basin, there are two primary controls on well performance. The first is reservoir thickness and the second is deliverability, a funciton of fracture permeability. Reservoir thickness is controlled by depositional systems whereas fracture permeability is controlled by tectonic deformation. In Rulison Field, a sidetrack well with a 142 foot difference in bottomhole location shows a 50% difference in net sandstone pay between the two wellbores. This intense variability underscores the difficulty of predicting sand geometries in the basin. Depositional systems analysis is important as a means of predicting reservoir quality and reservoir thickness, however, in the Piceance Basin, reservoir thickness and quality cannot be accurately predicted because of complex fluvial and paludal stratigraphy, In addition, stratigraphy does not exert the greatest control on production economics. Instead, fracture permeability is the predictable and most important variable for successful development programs. In support of this, the orientation of fracture-controlled production trends lie either orthogonal or oblique to depositional trends in White River Dome, Divide Creek, Shire Gulch, Plateau, Grand Valley, Parachute and Rulison fields.

  4. Regression modeling and prediction of road sweeping brush load characteristics from finite element analysis and experimental results.

    PubMed

    Wang, Chong; Sun, Qun; Wahab, Magd Abdel; Zhang, Xingyu; Xu, Limin

    2015-09-01

    Rotary cup brushes mounted on each side of a road sweeper undertake heavy debris removal tasks but the characteristics have not been well known until recently. A Finite Element (FE) model that can analyze brush deformation and predict brush characteristics have been developed to investigate the sweeping efficiency and to assist the controller design. However, the FE model requires large amount of CPU time to simulate each brush design and operating scenario, which may affect its applications in a real-time system. This study develops a mathematical regression model to summarize the FE modeled results. The complex brush load characteristic curves were statistically analyzed to quantify the effects of cross-section, length, mounting angle, displacement and rotational speed etc. The data were then fitted by a multiple variable regression model using the maximum likelihood method. The fitted results showed good agreement with the FE analysis results and experimental results, suggesting that the mathematical regression model may be directly used in a real-time system to predict characteristics of different brushes under varying operating conditions. The methodology may also be used in the design and optimization of rotary brush tools.

  5. Failure-plane angle in Bentheim sandstone subjected to true triaxial stresses: experimental results and theoretical prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ma, Xiaodong; Rudnicki, John; Haimson, Bezalel

    2014-05-01

    We conducted true triaxial tests in the high-porosity (n = 24%), quartz-rich (95%), Bentheim sandstone. An important objective was to investigate the dependence of failure-plane angle θ (angle between the normal to the plane and σ1 direction) on the prevailing stress conditions. We employed two distinct loading paths, and seven σ3 magnitudes (between 0 and 150 MPa). In tests using the common loading path, σ2 and σ3 were fixed, while σ1 was raised monotonically to failure. In tests using the novel loading path (which facilitate comparison with theoretical predictions), σ3 was fixed, and the Lode angle, Θ (= tan-1 [(σ1 - 2σ2 + σ3) / 30.5(σ1 - σ3)]) was kept constant by raising σ1 and σ2 simultaneously at a set ratio b [= (σ2 -σ3)/(σ1 -σ3)] until failure occurred. Six stress ratios b (= 0, 1/6, 1/3, 1/2, 3/4, 1), i.e. six Θ (= tan-1 [(1-2b) / 30.5]) values from +π/6 (axisymmetric compression) to -π/6 (axisymmetric extension) were used. In axisymmetric common loading path tests, failure-plane angle θ generally declined as the applied σ3 = σ2 increased from about 80° at σ3 = σ2 = 0 MPa to 0° at σ3 = σ2 = 150 MPa (forming compaction bands). In tests where σ3 ≠ σ2, the resulting failure-plane strike was consistently parallel to σ2 direction. For low σ3, θ typically rose by up to 12° as σ2 rose from σ2 = σ3 to σ2 = σ1. However, the rise in θ with σ2 tended to diminish at higher σ3. A limiting case occurred at σ3 = 150 MPa, where failure plane remained at 0° , regardless of the rise in σ2. In the novel loading path tests, failure-plane angle θ declined monotonically for any given Lode angle Θ, from roughly 80° to 0° , as the mean stress at failure (σoct,f) rose from about 20 MPa to around 220 MPa; for a constant σoct,f, θ typically increased from 10° (at σoct,f = 20 MPa) to 30° (at σoct,f = 220 MPa) as Θ dropped from +π/6 (σ2 = σ3) to -π/6 (σ2 = σ1). We compared the measured θ with that predicted using

  6. The validation of a human force model to predict dynamic forces resulting from multi-joint motions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Pandya, Abhilash K.; Maida, James C.; Aldridge, Ann M.; Hasson, Scott M.; Woolford, Barbara J.

    1992-01-01

    The development and validation is examined of a dynamic strength model for humans. This model is based on empirical data. The shoulder, elbow, and wrist joints were characterized in terms of maximum isolated torque, or position and velocity, in all rotational planes. This data was reduced by a least squares regression technique into a table of single variable second degree polynomial equations determining torque as a function of position and velocity. The isolated joint torque equations were then used to compute forces resulting from a composite motion, in this case, a ratchet wrench push and pull operation. A comparison of the predicted results of the model with the actual measured values for the composite motion indicates that forces derived from a composite motion of joints (ratcheting) can be predicted from isolated joint measures. Calculated T values comparing model versus measured values for 14 subjects were well within the statistically acceptable limits and regression analysis revealed coefficient of variation between actual and measured to be within 0.72 and 0.80.

  7. Towards accurate kinetic modeling of prompt NO formation in hydrocarbon flames via the NCN pathway

    SciTech Connect

    Sutton, Jeffrey A.; Fleming, James W.

    2008-08-15

    A basic kinetic mechanism that can predict the appropriate prompt-NO precursor NCN, as shown by experiment, with relative accuracy while still producing postflame NO results that can be calculated as accurately as or more accurately than through the former HCN pathway is presented for the first time. The basic NCN submechanism should be a starting point for future NCN kinetic and prompt NO formation refinement.

  8. Health Risk Factor Modification Predicts Incidence of Diabetes in an Employee Population: Results of an 8-Year Longitudinal Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Rolando, Lori; Byrne, Daniel W.; McGown, Paula W.; Goetzel, Ron Z.; Elasy, Tom; Yarbrough, Mary I.

    2013-01-01

    Objective To understand risk factor modification effect on Type 2 Diabetes incidence in a workforce population. Methods Annual Health Risk Assessment (HRA) data (n=3125) in years 1 through 4 were used to predict diabetes development in years 5 through 8. Results Employees who reduced their BMI from ≥30 to < 30 decreased their chances of developing diabetes (OR 0.22, 95% CI 0.05 to 0.93), while those who became obese increased their diabetes risk (OR 8.85, 95% CI 2.53 to 31.0). Conclusions Weight reduction observed over a long period can result in clinically important reductions in diabetes incidence. Workplace health promotion programs may prevent diabetes among workers by encouraging weight loss and adoption of healthy lifestyle habits. PMID:23532193

  9. Neurological assessment of preterm infants for predicting neuromotor status at 2 years: results from the LIFT cohort

    PubMed Central

    Leroux, Bénédicte Gaillard; N'Guyen The Tich, Sylvie; Branger, Bernard; Gascoin, Géraldine; Rouger, Valérie; Berlie, Isabelle; Montcho, Yannis; Ancel, Pierre-Yves; Rozé, Jean-Christophe; Flamant, Cyril

    2013-01-01

    Objective To develop a predictive risk stratification model for the identification of preterm infants at risk of 2-year suboptimal neuromotor status. Design Population-based observational study. Setting Regional preterm infant follow-up programme (Loire Infant Follow-up Team (LIFT) cohort) implemented in 2003. Participants 4030 preterm infants were enrolled in the LIFT cohort, and examined by neonatologists using a modified version of the Amiel-Tison neurological assessment tool. Main outcome criteria 2 year neuromotor status based on clinical examinations was conducted by trained paediatricians and parents’ responses to the Ages and Stages Questionnaire were reported. Results At 2 years of corrected age, 3321 preterm infants were examined, and suboptimal neuromotor status was found in 355 (10.7%). The study population was divided into training and validation sets. In the training set, 13 neonatal neurological items were associated with a 2-year suboptimal neuromotor status. Having at least one abnormal item was defined as an abnormal neurological status at term. In the validation set, these data predicted a 2-year suboptimal neuromotor status with a sensitivity of 0.55 (95% CI 0.47 to 0.62) and a specificity of 0.65 (95% CI 0.62 to 0.67). Two predictive risk stratification trees were built using the training set, which were based on the neurological assessment at term along with either gestational age or severe cranial lesions or birth weight. Using the validation set, the first tree identified a subgroup with a relatively low risk of suboptimal neuromotor status (3%), representing 32% of infants, and the second tree identified a subgroup with a risk of 5%, representing 42% of infants. Conclusion A normal neurological assessment at term allows the identification of a subgroup of preterm infants with a lower risk of non-optimal neuromotor development at 2 years. PMID:23435797

  10. Seamless atmospheric modeling across the hydrostatic-nonhydrostatic scales - preliminary results using an unstructured-Voronoi mesh for weather prediction.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Skamarock, W. C.

    2015-12-01

    One of the major problems in atmospheric model applications is the representation of deep convection within the models; explicit simulation of deep convection on fine meshes performs much better than sub-grid parameterized deep convection on coarse meshes. Unfortunately, the high cost of explicit convective simulation has meant it has only been used to down-scale global simulations in weather prediction and regional climate applications, typically using traditional one-way interactive nesting technology. We have been performing real-time weather forecast tests using a global non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (the Model for Prediction Across Scales, MPAS) that employs a variable-resolution unstructured Voronoi horizontal mesh (nominally hexagons) to span hydrostatic to nonhydrostatic scales. The smoothly varying Voronoi mesh eliminates many downscaling problems encountered using traditional one- or two-way grid nesting. Our test weather forecasts cover two periods - the 2015 Spring Forecast Experiment conducted at the NOAA Storm Prediction Center during the month of May in which we used a 50-3 km mesh, and the PECAN field program examining nocturnal convection over the US during the months of June and July in which we used a 15-3 km mesh. An important aspect of this modeling system is that the model physics be scale-aware, particularly the deep convection parameterization. These MPAS simulations employ the Grell-Freitas scale-aware convection scheme. Our test forecasts show that the scheme produces a gradual transition in the deep convection, from the deep unstable convection being handled entirely by the convection scheme on the coarse mesh regions (dx > 15 km), to the deep convection being almost entirely explicit on the 3 km NA region of the meshes. We will present results illustrating the performance of critical aspects of the MPAS model in these tests.

  11. Use of Local {sup 111}In-Capromab Pendetide Scan Results to Predict Outcome After Salvage Radiotherapy for Prostate Cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Koontz, Bridget F. Mouraviev, Vladimir; Johnson, Jeffrey L.; Mayes, Janice; Chen, Stephanie H.; Wong, Terence Z.; Anscher, Mitchell S.; Sun, Leon; Moul, Judd; Polascik, Thomas J.

    2008-06-01

    Purpose: The {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan (ProstaScint; Cytogen Corp., Princeton NJ) is approved by the Food and Drug Administration to evaluate increasing prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels after radical prostatectomy. This study evaluated the role of prostate bed {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan findings to predict response to salvage radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: Forty patients who had PSA recurrence after radical prostatectomy and a {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan immediately before salvage prostate bed RT (median, 66 Gy) were identified from the Duke Prostate Center database. Patients with distant uptake of capromab pendetide or long-term androgen deprivation therapy were excluded. Median follow-up after salvage RT was 2.7 years. Patient demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics; PSA values; and {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan results were retrospectively analyzed. A PSA failure after salvage RT was defined as PSA level greater than 0.2 ng/ml. Data were combined with other published results in a secondary pooled analysis of 106 patients. Results: {sup 111}In-Capromab pendetide findings included 20 patients with negative scan results and 20 with locally positive scan results. Two-year progression-free survival rates were 60% for patients with a negative scan result and 74% for those with a locally positive scan result (p = 0.49). Combined analysis did not show a difference in outcome based on local {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan result. Conclusion: For patients without distant signal detected by using {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan, patients with locally positive scan findings did not have statistically different progression-free survival than those with a negative scan result, suggesting that salvage RT may be successful in patients with either a locally positive or negative {sup 111}In-capromab pendetide scan result.

  12. Exposure to Persistent Organic Pollutants Predicts Telomere Length in Older Age: Results from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Guzzardi, Maria Angela; Iozzo, Patricia; Salonen, Minna K.; Kajantie, Eero; Airaksinen, Riikka; Kiviranta, Hannu; Rantakokko, Panu; Eriksson, Johan Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    As the population ages, the occurrence of chronic pathologies becomes more common. Leukocyte telomere shortening associates to ageing and age-related diseases. Recent studies suggest that environmental chemicals can affect telomere length. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are most relevant, since they are ingested with foods, and accumulate in the body for a long time. This longitudinal study was undertaken to test if circulating POPs predict telomere length and shortening in elderly people. We studied 1082 subjects belonging to the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study (born 1934-1944), undergoing two visits (2001-2004 and 2011-2014). POPs (oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor, p, p’-DDE, PCB 153, BDE 47, BDE 153) were analysed at baseline. Relative telomere length was measured twice, ’10 years apart, by quantitative real-time PCR. Oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and PCB-153 levels were significant predictors of telomere length and shortening. In men, we did not find a linear relationship between POPs exposure and telomere shortening. In women, a significant reduction across quartiles categories of oxychlordane and trans-nonachlor exposure was observed. Baseline characteristics of subjects in the highest POPs categories included higher levels of C-reactive protein and fasting glucose, and lower body fat percentage. This is one of few studies combining POPs and telomere length. Our results indicate that exposure to oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and PCB 153 predicts telomere attrition. This finding is important because concentrations of POPs observed here occur in contemporary younger people, and may contribute to an accelerated ageing.

  13. Accurate thermoelastic tensor and acoustic velocities of NaCl

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marcondes, Michel L.; Shukla, Gaurav; da Silveira, Pedro; Wentzcovitch, Renata M.

    2015-12-01

    Despite the importance of thermoelastic properties of minerals in geology and geophysics, their measurement at high pressures and temperatures are still challenging. Thus, ab initio calculations are an essential tool for predicting these properties at extreme conditions. Owing to the approximate description of the exchange-correlation energy, approximations used in calculations of vibrational effects, and numerical/methodological approximations, these methods produce systematic deviations. Hybrid schemes combining experimental data and theoretical results have emerged as a way to reconcile available information and offer more reliable predictions at experimentally inaccessible thermodynamics conditions. Here we introduce a method to improve the calculated thermoelastic tensor by using highly accurate thermal equation of state (EoS). The corrective scheme is general, applicable to crystalline solids with any symmetry, and can produce accurate results at conditions where experimental data may not exist. We apply it to rock-salt-type NaCl, a material whose structural properties have been challenging to describe accurately by standard ab initio methods and whose acoustic/seismic properties are important for the gas and oil industry.

  14. Accurate thermoelastic tensor and acoustic velocities of NaCl

    SciTech Connect

    Marcondes, Michel L.; Shukla, Gaurav; Silveira, Pedro da; Wentzcovitch, Renata M.

    2015-12-15

    Despite the importance of thermoelastic properties of minerals in geology and geophysics, their measurement at high pressures and temperatures are still challenging. Thus, ab initio calculations are an essential tool for predicting these properties at extreme conditions. Owing to the approximate description of the exchange-correlation energy, approximations used in calculations of vibrational effects, and numerical/methodological approximations, these methods produce systematic deviations. Hybrid schemes combining experimental data and theoretical results have emerged as a way to reconcile available information and offer more reliable predictions at experimentally inaccessible thermodynamics conditions. Here we introduce a method to improve the calculated thermoelastic tensor by using highly accurate thermal equation of state (EoS). The corrective scheme is general, applicable to crystalline solids with any symmetry, and can produce accurate results at conditions where experimental data may not exist. We apply it to rock-salt-type NaCl, a material whose structural properties have been challenging to describe accurately by standard ab initio methods and whose acoustic/seismic properties are important for the gas and oil industry.

  15. The importance of accurate atmospheric modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Payne, Dylan; Schroeder, John; Liang, Pang

    2014-11-01

    This paper will focus on the effect of atmospheric conditions on EO sensor performance using computer models. We have shown the importance of accurately modeling atmospheric effects for predicting the performance of an EO sensor. A simple example will demonstrated how real conditions for several sites in China will significantly impact on image correction, hyperspectral imaging, and remote sensing. The current state-of-the-art model for computing atmospheric transmission and radiance is, MODTRAN® 5, developed by the US Air Force Research Laboratory and Spectral Science, Inc. Research by the US Air Force, Navy and Army resulted in the public release of LOWTRAN 2 in the early 1970's. Subsequent releases of LOWTRAN and MODTRAN® have continued until the present. Please verify that (1) all pages are present, (2) all figures are correct, (3) all fonts and special characters are correct, and (4) all text and figures fit within the red margin lines shown on this review document. Complete formatting information is available at http://SPIE.org/manuscripts Return to the Manage Active Submissions page at http://spie.org/submissions/tasks.aspx and approve or disapprove this submission. Your manuscript will not be published without this approval. Please contact author_help@spie.org with any questions or concerns. The paper will demonstrate the importance of using validated models and local measured meteorological, atmospheric and aerosol conditions to accurately simulate the atmospheric transmission and radiance. Frequently default conditions are used which can produce errors of as much as 75% in these values. This can have significant impact on remote sensing applications.

  16. Accurate method of modeling cluster scaling relations in modified gravity

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    He, Jian-hua; Li, Baojiu

    2016-06-01

    We propose a new method to model cluster scaling relations in modified gravity. Using a suite of nonradiative hydrodynamical simulations, we show that the scaling relations of accumulated gas quantities, such as the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (Compton-y parameter) and the x-ray Compton-y parameter, can be accurately predicted using the known results in the Λ CDM model with a precision of ˜3 % . This method provides a reliable way to analyze the gas physics in modified gravity using the less demanding and much more efficient pure cold dark matter simulations. Our results therefore have important theoretical and practical implications in constraining gravity using cluster surveys.

  17. Evaluation of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio prior to prostate biopsy to predict biopsy histology: Results of 1836 patients

    PubMed Central

    Gokce, Mehmet Ilker; Hamidi, Nurullah; Suer, Evren; Tangal, Semih; Huseynov, Adil; Ibiş, Arif

    2015-01-01

    Introduction: We evaluate the role of NLR prior to prostate biopsy to predict biopsy histology and Gleason score in patients with prostate cancer. Methods: In this retrospective study, we evaluated data of patients underwent prostate biopsy between May 2005 and March 2015. We collected the following data: age, prostate-specific antigen (PSA), biopsy histology, Gleason score (GS) in prostate cancer patients, neutrophil counts, and lymphocyte counts. Patients were grouped as benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH), prostate cancer, and prostatitis. The Chi square test was used to compare categorical variables and analysis of variance (ANOVA) was applied for continuous variables. Results: Data of 1836 patients were investigated. The mean age, total PSA and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) of the population were 66.8 ± 8.17 years, 9.38 ± 4.7 ng/dL, and 3.11 ± 1.71, respectively. Patients were divided as follows: 625 in the group with BPH history, 600 in the prostatitis group, and 611 in the prostate cancer histology group. The mean NLR of the prostatitis group was higher compared to the prostate cancer and BPH groups (p = 0.0001). The mean NLR of the prostate cancer group was significantly higher compared to the BPH group (p = 0.002). The GS 8–10 group had a significantly higher mean NLR compared to GS 5–6 (3.64 vs. 2.54, p = 0.0001) and GS 7 (3.64 vs. 2.58, p = 0.0001) patients. Conclusions: NLR was found to differ with regard to histology of prostate biopsy and higher GS was associated with higher NLR in patients with prostate cancer. However prostatitis prevents the use of NLR in predicting prostate cancer before a prostate biopsy. Also, the retrospective nature and lack of multivariate analysis in this study somewhat limits the relevance of these results. PMID:26600880

  18. Accurate adiabatic correction in the hydrogen molecule

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pachucki, Krzysztof; Komasa, Jacek

    2014-12-01

    A new formalism for the accurate treatment of adiabatic effects in the hydrogen molecule is presented, in which the electronic wave function is expanded in the James-Coolidge basis functions. Systematic increase in the size of the basis set permits estimation of the accuracy. Numerical results for the adiabatic correction to the Born-Oppenheimer interaction energy reveal a relative precision of 10-12 at an arbitrary internuclear distance. Such calculations have been performed for 88 internuclear distances in the range of 0 < R ⩽ 12 bohrs to construct the adiabatic correction potential and to solve the nuclear Schrödinger equation. Finally, the adiabatic correction to the dissociation energies of all rovibrational levels in H2, HD, HT, D2, DT, and T2 has been determined. For the ground state of H2 the estimated precision is 3 × 10-7 cm-1, which is almost three orders of magnitude higher than that of the best previous result. The achieved accuracy removes the adiabatic contribution from the overall error budget of the present day theoretical predictions for the rovibrational levels.

  19. Accurate adiabatic correction in the hydrogen molecule

    SciTech Connect

    Pachucki, Krzysztof; Komasa, Jacek

    2014-12-14

    A new formalism for the accurate treatment of adiabatic effects in the hydrogen molecule is presented, in which the electronic wave function is expanded in the James-Coolidge basis functions. Systematic increase in the size of the basis set permits estimation of the accuracy. Numerical results for the adiabatic correction to the Born-Oppenheimer interaction energy reveal a relative precision of 10{sup −12} at an arbitrary internuclear distance. Such calculations have been performed for 88 internuclear distances in the range of 0 < R ⩽ 12 bohrs to construct the adiabatic correction potential and to solve the nuclear Schrödinger equation. Finally, the adiabatic correction to the dissociation energies of all rovibrational levels in H{sub 2}, HD, HT, D{sub 2}, DT, and T{sub 2} has been determined. For the ground state of H{sub 2} the estimated precision is 3 × 10{sup −7} cm{sup −1}, which is almost three orders of magnitude higher than that of the best previous result. The achieved accuracy removes the adiabatic contribution from the overall error budget of the present day theoretical predictions for the rovibrational levels.

  20. Accurate adiabatic correction in the hydrogen molecule.

    PubMed

    Pachucki, Krzysztof; Komasa, Jacek

    2014-12-14

    A new formalism for the accurate treatment of adiabatic effects in the hydrogen molecule is presented, in which the electronic wave function is expanded in the James-Coolidge basis functions. Systematic increase in the size of the basis set permits estimation of the accuracy. Numerical results for the adiabatic correction to the Born-Oppenheimer interaction energy reveal a relative precision of 10(-12) at an arbitrary internuclear distance. Such calculations have been performed for 88 internuclear distances in the range of 0 < R ⩽ 12 bohrs to construct the adiabatic correction potential and to solve the nuclear Schrödinger equation. Finally, the adiabatic correction to the dissociation energies of all rovibrational levels in H2, HD, HT, D2, DT, and T2 has been determined. For the ground state of H2 the estimated precision is 3 × 10(-7) cm(-1), which is almost three orders of magnitude higher than that of the best previous result. The achieved accuracy removes the adiabatic contribution from the overall error budget of the present day theoretical predictions for the rovibrational levels. PMID:25494728

  1. On the Improvement of Numerical Weather Prediction by Assimilation of Hub Height Wind Information in Convection-Resulted Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Declair, Stefan; Stephan, Klaus; Potthast, Roland

    2015-04-01

    Determining the amount of weather dependent renewable energy is a demanding task for transmission system operators (TSOs). In the project EWeLiNE funded by the German government, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute on Wind Energy and Energy System Technology strongly support the TSOs by developing innovative weather- and power forecasting models and tools for grid integration of weather dependent renewable energy. The key in the energy prediction process chain is the numerical weather prediction (NWP) system. With focus on wind energy, we face the model errors in the planetary boundary layer, which is characterized by strong spatial and temporal fluctuations in wind speed, to improve the basis of the weather dependent renewable energy prediction. Model data can be corrected by postprocessing techniques such as model output statistics and calibration using historical observational data. On the other hand, latest observations can be used in a preprocessing technique called data assimilation (DA). In DA, the model output from a previous time step is combined such with observational data, that the new model data for model integration initialization (analysis) fits best to the latest model data and the observational data as well. Therefore, model errors can be already reduced before the model integration. In this contribution, the results of an impact study are presented. A so-called OSSE (Observation Simulation System Experiment) is performed using the convective-resoluted COSMO-DE model of the German Weather Service and a 4D-DA technique, a Newtonian relaxation method also called nudging. Starting from a nature run (treated as the truth), conventional observations and artificial wind observations at hub height are generated. In a control run, the basic model setup of the nature run is slightly perturbed to drag the model away from the beforehand generated truth and a free forecast is computed based on the analysis using only conventional

  2. Predicting hydration Gibbs energies of alkyl-aromatics using molecular simulation: a comparison of current force fields and the development of a new parameter set for accurate solvation data.

    PubMed

    Garrido, Nuno M; Jorge, Miguel; Queimada, António J; Gomes, José R B; Economou, Ioannis G; Macedo, Eugénia A

    2011-10-14

    The Gibbs energy of hydration is an important quantity to understand the molecular behavior in aqueous systems at constant temperature and pressure. In this work we review the performance of some popular force fields, namely TraPPE, OPLS-AA and Gromos, in reproducing the experimental Gibbs energies of hydration of several alkyl-aromatic compounds--benzene, mono-, di- and tri-substituted alkylbenzenes--using molecular simulation techniques. In the second part of the paper, we report a new model that is able to improve such hydration energy predictions, based on Lennard Jones parameters from the recent TraPPE-EH force field and atomic partial charges obtained from natural population analysis of density functional theory calculations. We apply a scaling factor determined by fitting the experimental hydration energy of only two solutes, and then present a simple rule to generate atomic partial charges for different substituted alkyl-aromatics. This rule has the added advantages of eliminating the unnecessary assumption of fixed charge on every substituted carbon atom and providing a simple guideline for extrapolating the charge assignment to any multi-substituted alkyl-aromatic molecule. The point charges derived here yield excellent predictions of experimental Gibbs energies of hydration, with an overall absolute average deviation of less than 0.6 kJ mol(-1). This new parameter set can also give good predictive performance for other thermodynamic properties and liquid structural information.

  3. Exposure to Persistent Organic Pollutants Predicts Telomere Length in Older Age: Results from the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study

    PubMed Central

    Guzzardi, Maria Angela; Iozzo, Patricia; Salonen, Minna K.; Kajantie, Eero; Airaksinen, Riikka; Kiviranta, Hannu; Rantakokko, Panu; Eriksson, Johan Gunnar

    2016-01-01

    As the population ages, the occurrence of chronic pathologies becomes more common. Leukocyte telomere shortening associates to ageing and age-related diseases. Recent studies suggest that environmental chemicals can affect telomere length. Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) are most relevant, since they are ingested with foods, and accumulate in the body for a long time. This longitudinal study was undertaken to test if circulating POPs predict telomere length and shortening in elderly people. We studied 1082 subjects belonging to the Helsinki Birth Cohort Study (born 1934-1944), undergoing two visits (2001-2004 and 2011-2014). POPs (oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor, p, p’-DDE, PCB 153, BDE 47, BDE 153) were analysed at baseline. Relative telomere length was measured twice, ’10 years apart, by quantitative real-time PCR. Oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and PCB-153 levels were significant predictors of telomere length and shortening. In men, we did not find a linear relationship between POPs exposure and telomere shortening. In women, a significant reduction across quartiles categories of oxychlordane and trans-nonachlor exposure was observed. Baseline characteristics of subjects in the highest POPs categories included higher levels of C-reactive protein and fasting glucose, and lower body fat percentage. This is one of few studies combining POPs and telomere length. Our results indicate that exposure to oxychlordane, trans-nonachlor and PCB 153 predicts telomere attrition. This finding is important because concentrations of POPs observed here occur in contemporary younger people, and may contribute to an accelerated ageing. PMID:27699078

  4. Predictive and Prognostic Roles of BRAF Mutation in Stage III Colon Cancer: Results from Intergroup Trial CALGB 89803

    PubMed Central

    Ogino, Shuji; Shima, Kaori; Meyerhardt, Jeffrey A.; McCleary, Nadine J.; Ng, Kimmie; Hollis, Donna; Saltz, Leonard B.; Mayer, Robert J.; Schaefer, Paul; Whittom, Renaud; Hantel, Alexander; Benson, Al B.; Spiegelman, Donna; Goldberg, Richard M.; Bertagnolli, Monica M.; Fuchs, Charles S.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose Alterations in the RAS-RAF-MAP2K (MEK)-MAPK signaling pathway are major drivers in colon and rectal carcinogenesis. In colorectal cancer, BRAF mutation is associated with microsatellite instability (MSI), and typically predicts inferior prognosis. We examined the effect of BRAF mutation on survival and treatment efficacy in patients with stage III colon cancer. Methods We assessed status of BRAF c.1799T>A (p.V600E) mutation and MSI in 506 stage III colon cancer patients enrolled in a randomized adjuvant chemotherapy trial [5-fluorouracil and leucovorin (FU/LV) vs. irinotecan (CPT11), FU and LV (IFL); CALGB 89803]. Cox proportional hazards model was used to assess the prognostic role of BRAF mutation, adjusting for clinical features, adjuvant chemotherapy arm and MSI status. Results Compared to 431 BRAF-wild-type patients, 75 BRAF-mutated patients experienced significantly worse overall survival [OS; log-rank p=0.015; multivariate hazard ratio (HR)=1.66; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05-2.63]. By assessing combined status of BRAF and MSI, it appeared that BRAF-mutated MSS (microsatellite stable) tumor was an unfavorable subtype, while BRAF-wild-type MSI-high tumor was a favorable subtype, and BRAF-mutated MSI-high tumor and BRAF-wild-type MSS tumor were intermediate subtypes. Among patients with BRAF-mutated tumors, a non-significant trend toward improved OS was observed for IFL vs. FU/LV arm (multivariate HR=0.52; 95% CI, 0.25-1.10). Among patients with BRAF-wild-type cancer, IFL conferred no suggestion of benefit beyond FU/LV alone (multivariate HR=1.02; 95% CI, 0.72-1.46). Conclusions BRAF mutation is associated with inferior survival in stage III colon cancer. Additional studies are necessary to assess whether there is any predictive role of BRAF mutation for irinotecan-based therapy. PMID:22147942

  5. Accurate thickness measurement of graphene

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shearer, Cameron J.; Slattery, Ashley D.; Stapleton, Andrew J.; Shapter, Joseph G.; Gibson, Christopher T.

    2016-03-01

    Graphene has emerged as a material with a vast variety of applications. The electronic, optical and mechanical properties of graphene are strongly influenced by the number of layers present in a sample. As a result, the dimensional characterization of graphene films is crucial, especially with the continued development of new synthesis methods and applications. A number of techniques exist to determine the thickness of graphene films including optical contrast, Raman scattering and scanning probe microscopy techniques. Atomic force microscopy (AFM), in particular, is used extensively since it provides three-dimensional images that enable the measurement of the lateral dimensions of graphene films as well as the thickness, and by extension the number of layers present. However, in the literature AFM has proven to be inaccurate with a wide range of measured values for single layer graphene thickness reported (between 0.4 and 1.7 nm). This discrepancy has been attributed to tip-surface interactions, image feedback settings and surface chemistry. In this work, we use standard and carbon nanotube modified AFM probes and a relatively new AFM imaging mode known as PeakForce tapping mode to establish a protocol that will allow users to accurately determine the thickness of graphene films. In particular, the error in measuring the first layer is reduced from 0.1-1.3 nm to 0.1-0.3 nm. Furthermore, in the process we establish that the graphene-substrate adsorbate layer and imaging force, in particular the pressure the tip exerts on the surface, are crucial components in the accurate measurement of graphene using AFM. These findings can be applied to other 2D materials.

  6. Accurate thickness measurement of graphene.

    PubMed

    Shearer, Cameron J; Slattery, Ashley D; Stapleton, Andrew J; Shapter, Joseph G; Gibson, Christopher T

    2016-03-29

    Graphene has emerged as a material with a vast variety of applications. The electronic, optical and mechanical properties of graphene are strongly influenced by the number of layers present in a sample. As a result, the dimensional characterization of graphene films is crucial, especially with the continued development of new synthesis methods and applications. A number of techniques exist to determine the thickness of graphene films including optical contrast, Raman scattering and scanning probe microscopy techniques. Atomic force microscopy (AFM), in particular, is used extensively since it provides three-dimensional images that enable the measurement of the lateral dimensions of graphene films as well as the thickness, and by extension the number of layers present. However, in the literature AFM has proven to be inaccurate with a wide range of measured values for single layer graphene thickness reported (between 0.4 and 1.7 nm). This discrepancy has been attributed to tip-surface interactions, image feedback settings and surface chemistry. In this work, we use standard and carbon nanotube modified AFM probes and a relatively new AFM imaging mode known as PeakForce tapping mode to establish a protocol that will allow users to accurately determine the thickness of graphene films. In particular, the error in measuring the first layer is reduced from 0.1-1.3 nm to 0.1-0.3 nm. Furthermore, in the process we establish that the graphene-substrate adsorbate layer and imaging force, in particular the pressure the tip exerts on the surface, are crucial components in the accurate measurement of graphene using AFM. These findings can be applied to other 2D materials.

  7. Patient-Reported Outcomes and Total Health Care Expenditure in Prediction of Patient Satisfaction: Results From a National Study

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Weiping; Chen, Wei; Bounsanga, Jerry; Cheng, Christine; Franklin, Jeremy D; Crum, Anthony B; Voss, Maren W; Hon, Shirley D

    2015-01-01

    Background Health care quality is often linked to patient satisfaction. Yet, there is a lack of national studies examining the relationship between patient satisfaction, patient-reported outcomes, and medical expenditure. Objective The aim of this study is to examine the contribution of physical health, mental health, general health, and total health care expenditures to patient satisfaction using a longitudinal, nationally representative sample. Methods Using data from the 2010-2011 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, analyses were conducted to predict patient satisfaction from patient-reported outcomes and total health care expenditures. The study sample consisted of adult participants (N=10,157), with sampling weights representative of 233.26 million people in the United States. Results The results indicated that patient-reported outcomes and total health care expenditure were associated with patient satisfaction such that higher physical and mental function, higher general health status, and higher total health care expenditure were associated with higher patient satisfaction. Conclusions We found that patient-reported outcomes and total health care expenditure had a significant relationship with patient satisfaction. As more emphasis is placed on health care value and quality, this area of research will become increasingly needed and critical questions should be asked about what we value in health care and whether we can find a balance between patient satisfaction, outcomes, and expenditures. Future research should apply big data analytics to investigate whether there is a differential effect of patient-reported outcomes and medical expenditures on patient satisfaction across different medical specialties. PMID:27227131

  8. Serial measurement of hFABP and high-sensitivity troponin I post-PCI in STEMI: how fast and accurate can myocardial infarct size and no-reflow be predicted?

    PubMed

    Uitterdijk, André; Sneep, Stefan; van Duin, Richard W B; Krabbendam-Peters, Ilona; Gorsse-Bakker, Charlotte; Duncker, Dirk J; van der Giessen, Willem J; van Beusekom, Heleen M M

    2013-10-01

    The objective of this study was to compare heart-specific fatty acid binding protein (hFABP) and high-sensitivity troponin I (hsTnI) via serial measurements to identify early time points to accurately quantify infarct size and no-reflow in a preclinical swine model of ST-elevated myocardial infarction (STEMI). Myocardial necrosis, usually confirmed by hsTnI or TnT, takes several hours of ischemia before plasma levels rise in the absence of reperfusion. We evaluated the fast marker hFABP compared with hsTnI to estimate infarct size and no-reflow upon reperfused (2 h occlusion) and nonreperfused (8 h occlusion) STEMI in swine. In STEMI (n = 4) and STEMI + reperfusion (n = 8) induced in swine, serial blood samples were taken for hFABP and hsTnI and compared with triphenyl tetrazolium chloride and thioflavin-S staining for infarct size and no-reflow at the time of euthanasia. hFABP increased faster than hsTnI upon occlusion (82 ± 29 vs. 180 ± 73 min, P < 0.05) and increased immediately upon reperfusion while hsTnI release was delayed 16 ± 3 min (P < 0.05). Peak hFABP and hsTnI reperfusion values were reached at 30 ± 5 and 139 ± 21 min, respectively (P < 0.05). Infarct size (containing 84 ± 0.6% no-reflow) correlated well with area under the curve for hFABP (r(2) = 0.92) but less for hsTnI (r(2) = 0.53). At 50 and 60 min reperfusion, hFABP correlated best with infarct size (r(2) = 0.94 and 0.93) and no-reflow (r(2) = 0.96 and 0.94) and showed high sensitivity for myocardial necrosis (2.3 ± 0.6 and 0.4 ± 0.6 g). hFABP rises faster and correlates better with infarct size and no-reflow than hsTnI in STEMI + reperfusion when measured early after reperfusion. The highest sensitivity detecting myocardial necrosis, 0.4 ± 0.6 g at 60 min postreperfusion, provides an accurate and early measurement of infarct size and no-reflow.

  9. When Are Qualitative Testing Results Sufficient To Predict a Reduction in Illnesses in a Microbiological Food Safety Risk Assessment?

    PubMed

    Ebel, Eric D; Williams, Michael S

    2015-08-01

    Process models that include the myriad pathways that pathogen-contaminated food may traverse before consumption and the dose-response function to relate exposure to likelihood of illness may represent a "gold standard" for quantitative microbial risk assessment. Nevertheless, simplifications that rely on measuring the change in contamination occurrence of a raw food at the end of production may provide reasonable approximations of the effects measured by a process model. In this study, we parameterized three process models representing different product-pathogen pairs (i.e., chicken-Salmonella, chicken-Campylobacter, and beef-E. coli O157:H7) to compare with predictions based on qualitative testing of the raw product before consideration of mixing, partitioning, growth, attenuation, or dose-response processes. The results reveal that reductions in prevalence generated from qualitative testing of raw finished product usually underestimate the reduction in likelihood of illness for a population of consumers. Qualitative microbial testing results depend on the test's limit of detection. The negative bias is greater for limits of detection that are closer to the center of the contamination distribution and becomes less as the limit of detection is moved further into the right tail of the distribution. Nevertheless, a positive bias can result when the limit of detection refers to very high contamination levels. Changes in these high levels translate to larger consumed doses for which the slope of the dose-response function is smaller compared with the larger slope associated with smaller doses. Consequently, in these cases, a proportional reduction in prevalence of contamination results in a less than proportional reduction in probability of illness. The magnitudes of the biases are generally less for nonscalar (versus scalar) adjustments to the distribution.

  10. Fast and accurate determination of sites along the FUT2 in vitro transcript that are accessible to antisense oligonucleotides by application of secondary structure predictions and RNase H in combination with MALDI-TOF mass spectrometry

    PubMed Central

    Gabler, Angelika; Krebs, Stefan; Seichter, Doris; Förster, Martin

    2003-01-01

    Alteration of gene expression by use of antisense oligonucleotides has considerable potential for therapeutic purposes and scientific studies. Although applied for almost 25 years, this technique is still associated with difficulties in finding antisense-effective regions along the target mRNA. This is mainly due to strong secondary structures preventing binding of antisense oligonucleotides and RNase H, playing a major role in antisense-mediated degradation of the mRNA. These difficulties make empirical testing of a large number of sequences complementary to various sites in the target mRNA a very lengthy and troublesome procedure. To overcome this problem, more recent strategies to find efficient antisense sites are based on secondary structure prediction and RNase H-dependent mechanisms. We were the first who directly combined these two strategies; antisense oligonucleotides complementary to predicted unpaired target mRNA regions were designed and hybridized to the corresponding RNAs. Incubation with RNase H led to cleavage of the RNA at the respective hybridization sites. Analysis of the RNA fragments by matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization time-of-flight (MALDI-TOF) mass spectrometry, which has not been used in this context before, allowed exact determination of the cleavage site. Thus the technique described here is very promising when searching for effective antisense sites. PMID:12888531

  11. Grayscale/resolution trade-off for text: Model predictions and psychophysical results for letter confusion and letter discrimination

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gille, Jennifer; Martin, Russel; Lubin, Jeffrey; Larimer, James

    1995-01-01

    In a series of papers presented in 1994, we examined the grayscale/resolution trade-off for natural images displayed on devices with discrete pixellation, such as AMLCD's. In the present paper we extend this study by examining the grayscale/resolution trade-off for text images on discrete-pixel displays. Halftoning in printing is an example of the grayscale/resolution trade-off. In printing, spatial resolution is sacrificed to produce grayscale. Another example of this trade-off is the inherent low-pass spatial filter of a CRT, caused by the point-spread function of the electron beam in the phosphor layer. On a CRT, sharp image edges are blurred by this inherent low-pass filtering, and the block noise created by spatial quantization is greatly reduced. A third example of this trade-off is text anti-aliasing, where grayscale is used to improve letter shape, size and location when rendered at a low spatial resolution. There are additional implications for display system design from the grayscale/resolution trade-off. For example, reduced grayscale can reduce system costs by requiring less complexity in the framestore, allowing the use of lower cost drivers, potentially increasing data transfer rates in the image subsystem, and simplifying the manufacturing processes that are used to construct the active matrix for AMLCD (active-matrix liquid-crystal display) or AMTFEL (active-matrix thin-film electroluminescent) devices. Therefore, the study of these trade-offs is important for display designers and manufacturing and systems engineers who wish to create the highest performance, lowest cost device possible. Our strategy for investigating this trade-off is to generate a set of simple test images, manipulate grayscale and resolution, predict discrimination performance using the ViDEOS(Sarnoff) Human Vision Model, conduct an empirical study of discrimination using psychophysical procedures, and verify the computational results using the psychophysical results.

  12. Coating Life Prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nesbitt, J. A.; Gedwill, M. A.

    1984-01-01

    Hot-section gas-turbine components typically require some form of coating for oxidation and corrosion protection. Efficient use of coatings requires reliable and accurate predictions of the protective life of the coating. Currently engine inspections and component replacements are often made on a conservative basis. As a result, there is a constant need to improve and develop the life-prediction capability of metallic coatings for use in various service environments. The purpose of this present work is aimed at developing of an improved methodology for predicting metallic coating lives in an oxidizing environment and in a corrosive environment.

  13. Statistical evaluation of the predictive power of fine needle aspiration (FNA) of salivary glands. Results and cytohistological correlation.

    PubMed

    Abad, M M; G-Macias, C; Alonso, M J; Muñoz, E; Paz, J I; Galindo, P; Herrero, A; Bullon, A

    1992-04-01

    Fine needle aspiration (FNA) of the salivary glands was carried out on 97 patients. Diagnosis was confirmed by histological findings in 93 patients. There were 75 benign lesions (including 52 benign tumours) and 18 malignant lesions. In our series "positive predictive value" of FNA was 0.900 and the negative predictive value was 0.963. Thus, the probability of a false positive is 0.100 and of a false negative 0.037.

  14. Results of the Use of a Model that Predicts Individual Student Attrition to Intervene with Those Who Are Most at Risk

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Miller, Thomas E.; Tyree, Tracy; Riegler, Keri K.; Herreid, Charlene

    2010-01-01

    This article describes the early outcomes of an ongoing project at the University of South Florida in Tampa that involves using a logistics regression formula derived from pre-matriculation characteristics to predict the risk of individual student attrition. In this piece, the authors will describe the results of the prediction formula and the…

  15. Predicting Student Performance in Statewide High-Stakes Tests for Middle School Mathematics Using the Results from Third Party Testing Instruments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Meylani, Rusen; Bitter, Gary G.; Castaneda, Rene

    2014-01-01

    In this study regression and neural networks based methods are used to predict statewide high-stakes test results for middle school mathematics using the scores obtained from third party tests throughout the school year. Such prediction is of utmost significance for school districts to live up to the state's educational standards mandated by the…

  16. Accurate modeling of parallel scientific computations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Nicol, David M.; Townsend, James C.

    1988-01-01

    Scientific codes are usually parallelized by partitioning a grid among processors. To achieve top performance it is necessary to partition the grid so as to balance workload and minimize communication/synchronization costs. This problem is particularly acute when the grid is irregular, changes over the course of the computation, and is not known until load time. Critical mapping and remapping decisions rest on the ability to accurately predict performance, given a description of a grid and its partition. This paper discusses one approach to this problem, and illustrates its use on a one-dimensional fluids code. The models constructed are shown to be accurate, and are used to find optimal remapping schedules.

  17. Accurate Cross Sections for Microanalysis

    PubMed Central

    Rez, Peter

    2002-01-01

    To calculate the intensity of x-ray emission in electron beam microanalysis requires a knowledge of the energy distribution of the electrons in the solid, the energy variation of the ionization cross section of the relevant subshell, the fraction of ionizations events producing x rays of interest and the absorption coefficient of the x rays on the path to the detector. The theoretical predictions and experimental data available for ionization cross sections are limited mainly to K shells of a few elements. Results of systematic plane wave Born approximation calculations with exchange for K, L, and M shell ionization cross sections over the range of electron energies used in microanalysis are presented. Comparisons are made with experimental measurement for selected K shells and it is shown that the plane wave theory is not appropriate for overvoltages less than 2.5 V. PMID:27446747

  18. “Transference Ratios” to Predict Total Oxidized Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition – Part I, Monitoring Results

    EPA Science Inventory

    Use of model-predicted “transference ratios” is currently under consideration by the US EPA in the formulation of a Secondary National Ambient Air Quality Standard for oxidized nitrogen and oxidized sulfur. This term is an empirical parameter defined for oxidized sulfur (TS)as th...

  19. Maternal feeding practices predict fruit and vegetable consumption in young children. Results of a 12-month longitudinal study.

    PubMed

    Gregory, Jane E; Paxton, Susan J; Brozovic, Anna M

    2011-08-01

    This study aimed to explore the prospective relationship between maternal feeding practices and young children's frequency of consumption of fruits, vegetables and sweets, and also child weight-for-height z-scores. Participants were 60 mothers who completed questionnaires when their children were 1 year old and again when their children were 2 years old. Regression analyses were performed. After controlling for availability and prior child consumption of the target food, maternal use of pressure to eat at 1 year predicted lower child frequency of fruit consumption at 2 years and approached significance for lower vegetable consumption. Maternal modelling of healthy eating at 1 year predicted higher child frequency of vegetable consumption at 2 years. Restriction did not significantly predict child frequency of consumption of fruits, vegetables or sweets over time. Child weight-for-height scores at 2 years were predicted by weight-for-height at 1 year but not by feeding practices. The findings suggest that maternal feeding practices can influence child eating at a very young age. Interventions should focus on encouraging parents to model healthy eating to promote healthy eating in children. PMID:21569809

  20. “Transference Ratios” to Predict Total Oxidized Sulfur and Nitrogen Deposition – Part II, Modeling Results

    EPA Science Inventory

    The current study examines predictions of transference ratios and related modeled parameters for oxidized sulfur and oxidized nitrogen using five years (2002-2006) of 12-km grid cell-specific annual estimates from EPA’s Community Air Quality Model (CMAQ) for five selected sub-re...

  1. ANALYSIS OF CONCORDANCE OF PROBABILISTIC AGGREGATE EXPOSURE PREDICTIONS WITH OBSERVED BIOMONITORING RESULTS: AN EXAMPLE USING CTEPP DATA

    EPA Science Inventory

    Three key areas of scientific inquiry in the study of human exposure to environmental contaminants are 1) assessment of aggregate (i.e., multi-pathway, multi-route) exposures, 2) application of probabilistic methods to exposure prediction, and 3) the interpretation of biomarker m...

  2. Comparison of cross sections from the quasi-classical trajectory method and the j(z)-conserving centrifugal sudden approximation with accurate quantum results for an atom-rigid nonlinear polyatomic collision

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwenke, David W.

    1993-01-01

    We report the results of a series of calculations of state-to-state integral cross sections for collisions between O and nonvibrating H2O in the gas phase on a model nonreactive potential energy surface. The dynamical methods used include converged quantum mechanical scattering calculations, the j(z) conserving centrifugal sudden (j(z)-CCS) approximation, and quasi-classical trajectory (QCT) calculations. We consider three total energies 0.001, 0.002, and 0.005 E(h) and the nine initial states with rotational angular momentum less than or equal to 2 (h/2 pi). The j(z)-CCS approximation gives good results, while the QCT method can be quite unreliable for transitions to specific rotational sublevels. However, the QCT cross sections summed over final sublevels and averaged over initial sublevels are in better agreement with the quantum results.

  3. Age-Adjusted PSA Levels in Prostate Cancer Prediction: Updated Results of the Tyrol Prostate Cancer Early Detection Program

    PubMed Central

    Heidegger, Isabel; Fritz, Josef; Klocker, Helmut; Pichler, Renate

    2015-01-01

    Objective To reduce the number of unnecessary biopsies in patients with benign prostatic disease, however, without missing significant PCa the present study re-evaluates the age-dependent PSA cut-offs in the Tyrol Prostate Cancer (PCa) early detection program. Patients and Methods The study population included 2225 patients who underwent prostate biopsy due to elevated PSA levels at our department. We divided our patient collective into four age groups: ≤49 years (n = 178), 50-59 years (n = 597), 60-69 years (n = 962) and ≥70 years (n = 488). We simulated different scenarios for PSA cut-off values between 1.25 and 6 ng/mL and fPSA% between 15 and 21% for all four age groups and calculated sensitivity, specificity, confidence intervals and predictive values. Results PCa was detected in 1218 men (54.7%). We found that in combination with free PSA ≤21% the following PSA cut-offs had the best cancer specificity: 1.75 ng/ml for men ≤49 years and 50-59 years, 2.25 ng/ml for men aged 60-69 years and 3.25 ng/ml for men ≥70 years. Using these adjusted PSA cut-off values all significant tumors are recognized in all age groups, yet the number of biopsies is reduced. Overall, one biopsy is avoided in 13 to 14 men (number needed to screen = 13.3, reduction of biopsies = 7.5%) when decision regarding biopsy is done according to the “new” cut-off values instead of the “old” ones. For the different age groups the number needed to screen to avoid one biopsy varied between 9.2 (≤49 years) and 17.4 (50-59 years). Conclusion With “new”, fine-tuned PSA cut-offs we detect all relevant PCa with a significant reduction of biopsies compared to the “old” cut-off values. Optimization of age-specific PSA cut-offs is one step towards a smarter strategy in the Tyrol PCa Early Detection Program. PMID:26218594

  4. Prediction of the spectrum of atmospheric microburst noise in the range 2-20 Hz - Preliminary results

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hardin, Jay C.; Pope, D. Stuart

    1989-01-01

    An engineering estimate of the spectrum of atmospheric microburst noise radiation in the range 2-20 Hz is developed. This prediction is obtained via a marriage of standard aeroacoustic theory with a numerical computation of the relevant fluid dynamics. The 'computational aeroacoustics' technique applied here to the interpretation of atmospheric noise measurements is illustrative of a methodology that can now be employed in a wide class of problems.

  5. Prediction of coupled menisci shapes by Young-Laplace equation and the resultant variability in capillary retention.

    PubMed

    Chatterjee, Jaideep

    2007-10-01

    This paper shows how 2 coupled Young-Laplace equations can be solved to predict the shapes of two coupled menisci formed in a capillary system. Experiments are performed, which demonstrate that the equilibrium volume of liquid retained in a vertical capillary, can be variable, even when all the properties of the system are invariant. This variability in liquid retention also leads to different equilibrium shapes of the top and bottom menisci. A coupled form of the Young-Laplace equation is solved to predict the two coupled menisci shapes. The curvature of the top meniscus is fitted to the experimentally recorded meniscus shape. The coupled Young-Laplace equation solution is used to predict the shape of the bottom meniscus. The shape of the bottom meniscus thus obtained, is shown to match the experimentally recorded bottom meniscus shape reasonably well. This observed coupling of the menisci has a significant impact on some porosimetric techniques which are based on liquid extrusion and explains why the volume of liquid that can be retained in a capillary can vary, under invariant conditions. Retention of liquids in capillaries is of interest in several applications like fabric wash.

  6. Hamsi scoring in the prediction of unfavorable outcomes from tuberculous meningitis: results of Haydarpasa-II study.

    PubMed

    Erdem, Hakan; Ozturk-Engin, Derya; Tireli, Hulya; Kilicoglu, Gamze; Defres, Sylviane; Gulsun, Serda; Sengoz, Gonul; Crisan, Alexandru; Johansen, Isik Somuncu; Inan, Asuman; Nechifor, Mihai; Al-Mahdawi, Akram; Civljak, Rok; Ozguler, Muge; Savic, Branislava; Ceran, Nurgul; Cacopardo, Bruno; Inal, Ayse Seza; Namiduru, Mustafa; Dayan, Saim; Kayabas, Uner; Parlak, Emine; Khalifa, Ahmad; Kursun, Ebru; Sipahi, Oguz Resat; Yemisen, Mucahit; Akbulut, Ayhan; Bitirgen, Mehmet; Popovic, Natasa; Kandemir, Bahar; Luca, Catalina; Parlak, Mehmet; Stahl, Jean Paul; Pehlivanoglu, Filiz; Simeon, Soline; Ulu-Kilic, Aysegul; Yasar, Kadriye; Yilmaz, Gulden; Yilmaz, Emel; Beovic, Bojana; Catroux, Melanie; Lakatos, Botond; Sunbul, Mustafa; Oncul, Oral; Alabay, Selma; Sahin-Horasan, Elif; Kose, Sukran; Shehata, Ghaydaa; Andre, Katell; Dragovac, Gorana; Gul, Hanefi Cem; Karakas, Ahmet; Chadapaud, Stéphane; Hansmann, Yves; Harxhi, Arjan; Kirova, Valerija; Masse-Chabredier, Isabelle; Oncu, Serkan; Sener, Alper; Tekin, Recep; Elaldi, Nazif; Deveci, Ozcan; Ozkaya, Hacer Deniz; Karabay, Oguz; Senbayrak, Seniha; Agalar, Canan; Vahaboglu, Haluk

    2015-01-01

    Predicting unfavorable outcome is of paramount importance in clinical decision making. Accordingly, we designed this multinational study, which provided the largest case series of tuberculous meningitis (TBM). 43 centers from 14 countries (Albania, Croatia, Denmark, Egypt, France, Hungary, Iraq, Italy, Macedonia, Romania, Serbia, Slovenia, Syria, Turkey) submitted data of microbiologically confirmed TBM patients hospitalized between 2000 and 2012. Unfavorable outcome was defined as survival with significant sequela or death. In developing our index, binary logistic regression models were constructed via 200 replicates of database by bootstrap resampling methodology. The final model was built according to the selection frequencies of variables. The severity scale included variables with arbitrary scores proportional to predictive powers of terms in the final model. The final model was internally validated by bootstrap resampling. A total of 507 patients' data were submitted among which 165 had unfavorable outcome. Eighty-six patients died while 119 had different neurological sequelae in 79 (16%) patients. The full model included 13 variables. Age, nausea, vomiting, altered consciousness, hydrocephalus, vasculitis, immunosuppression, diabetes mellitus and neurological deficit remained in the final model. Scores 1-3 were assigned to the variables in the severity scale, which included scores of 1-6. The distribution of mortality for the scores 1-6 was 3.4, 8.2, 20.6, 31, 30 and 40.1%, respectively. Altered consciousness, diabetes mellitus, immunosuppression, neurological deficits, hydrocephalus, and vasculitis predicted the unfavorable outcome in the scoring and the cumulative score provided a linear estimation of prognosis.

  7. Test results of a 40-kW Stirling engine and comparison with the NASA Lewis computer code predictions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Allen, David J.; Cairelli, James E.

    1988-01-01

    A Stirling engine was tested without auxiliaries at Nasa-Lewis. Three different regenerator configurations were tested with hydrogen. The test objectives were: (1) to obtain steady-state and dynamic engine data, including indicated power, for validation of an existing computer model for this engine; and (2) to evaluate structurally the use of silicon carbide regenerators. This paper presents comparisons of the measured brake performance, indicated mean effective pressure, and cyclic pressure variations from those predicted by the code. The silicon carbide foam generators appear to be structurally suitable, but the foam matrix showed severely reduced performance.

  8. Prediction of Combustion Gas Deposit Compositions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Kohl, F. J.; Mcbride, B. J.; Zeleznik, F. J.; Gordon, S.

    1985-01-01

    Demonstrated procedure used to predict accurately chemical compositions of complicated deposit mixtures. NASA Lewis Research Center's Computer Program for Calculation of Complex Chemical Equilibrium Compositions (CEC) used in conjunction with Computer Program for Calculation of Ideal Gas Thermodynamic Data (PAC) and resulting Thermodynamic Data Base (THDATA) to predict deposit compositions from metal or mineral-seeded combustion processes.

  9. Accurate SHAPE-directed RNA structure determination

    PubMed Central

    Deigan, Katherine E.; Li, Tian W.; Mathews, David H.; Weeks, Kevin M.

    2009-01-01

    Almost all RNAs can fold to form extensive base-paired secondary structures. Many of these structures then modulate numerous fundamental elements of gene expression. Deducing these structure–function relationships requires that it be possible to predict RNA secondary structures accurately. However, RNA secondary structure prediction for large RNAs, such that a single predicted structure for a single sequence reliably represents the correct structure, has remained an unsolved problem. Here, we demonstrate that quantitative, nucleotide-resolution information from a SHAPE experiment can be interpreted as a pseudo-free energy change term and used to determine RNA secondary structure with high accuracy. Free energy minimization, by using SHAPE pseudo-free energies, in conjunction with nearest neighbor parameters, predicts the secondary structure of deproteinized Escherichia coli 16S rRNA (>1,300 nt) and a set of smaller RNAs (75–155 nt) with accuracies of up to 96–100%, which are comparable to the best accuracies achievable by comparative sequence analysis. PMID:19109441

  10. Ethics and epistemology of accurate prediction in clinical research.

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips

    2015-07-01

    All major research ethics policies assert that the ethical review of clinical trial protocols should include a systematic assessment of risks and benefits. But despite this policy, protocols do not typically contain explicit probability statements about the likely risks or benefits involved in the proposed research. In this essay, I articulate a range of ethical and epistemic advantages that explicit forecasting would offer to the health research enterprise. I then consider how some particular confidence levels may come into conflict with the principles of ethical research.

  11. WGS accurately predicts antimicrobial resistance in Escherichia coli

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of whole-genome sequencing (WGS) in identifying resistance genotypes of multidrug-resistant Escherichia coli (E. coli) and whether these correlate with observed phenotypes. Methods: Seventy-six E. coli strains were isolated from farm cattle and measured f...

  12. Ethics and epistemology of accurate prediction in clinical research.

    PubMed

    Hey, Spencer Phillips

    2015-07-01

    All major research ethics policies assert that the ethical review of clinical trial protocols should include a systematic assessment of risks and benefits. But despite this policy, protocols do not typically contain explicit probability statements about the likely risks or benefits involved in the proposed research. In this essay, I articulate a range of ethical and epistemic advantages that explicit forecasting would offer to the health research enterprise. I then consider how some particular confidence levels may come into conflict with the principles of ethical research. PMID:25249375

  13. Profitable capitation requires accurate costing.

    PubMed

    West, D A; Hicks, L L; Balas, E A; West, T D

    1996-01-01

    In the name of costing accuracy, nurses are asked to track inventory use on per treatment basis when more significant costs, such as general overhead and nursing salaries, are usually allocated to patients or treatments on an average cost basis. Accurate treatment costing and financial viability require analysis of all resources actually consumed in treatment delivery, including nursing services and inventory. More precise costing information enables more profitable decisions as is demonstrated by comparing the ratio-of-cost-to-treatment method (aggregate costing) with alterna