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Sample records for accurately predict disease

  1. Modeling methodology for the accurate and prompt prediction of symptomatic events in chronic diseases.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Josué; Risco-Martín, José L; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of symptomatic crises in chronic diseases allows to take decisions before the symptoms occur, such as the intake of drugs to avoid the symptoms or the activation of medical alarms. The prediction horizon is in this case an important parameter in order to fulfill the pharmacokinetics of medications, or the time response of medical services. This paper presents a study about the prediction limits of a chronic disease with symptomatic crises: the migraine. For that purpose, this work develops a methodology to build predictive migraine models and to improve these predictions beyond the limits of the initial models. The maximum prediction horizon is analyzed, and its dependency on the selected features is studied. A strategy for model selection is proposed to tackle the trade off between conservative but robust predictive models, with respect to less accurate predictions with higher horizons. The obtained results show a prediction horizon close to 40min, which is in the time range of the drug pharmacokinetics. Experiments have been performed in a realistic scenario where input data have been acquired in an ambulatory clinical study by the deployment of a non-intrusive Wireless Body Sensor Network. Our results provide an effective methodology for the selection of the future horizon in the development of prediction algorithms for diseases experiencing symptomatic crises.

  2. Accurate and Robust Genomic Prediction of Celiac Disease Using Statistical Learning

    PubMed Central

    Abraham, Gad; Tye-Din, Jason A.; Bhalala, Oneil G.; Kowalczyk, Adam; Zobel, Justin; Inouye, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Practical application of genomic-based risk stratification to clinical diagnosis is appealing yet performance varies widely depending on the disease and genomic risk score (GRS) method. Celiac disease (CD), a common immune-mediated illness, is strongly genetically determined and requires specific HLA haplotypes. HLA testing can exclude diagnosis but has low specificity, providing little information suitable for clinical risk stratification. Using six European cohorts, we provide a proof-of-concept that statistical learning approaches which simultaneously model all SNPs can generate robust and highly accurate predictive models of CD based on genome-wide SNP profiles. The high predictive capacity replicated both in cross-validation within each cohort (AUC of 0.87–0.89) and in independent replication across cohorts (AUC of 0.86–0.9), despite differences in ethnicity. The models explained 30–35% of disease variance and up to ∼43% of heritability. The GRS's utility was assessed in different clinically relevant settings. Comparable to HLA typing, the GRS can be used to identify individuals without CD with ≥99.6% negative predictive value however, unlike HLA typing, fine-scale stratification of individuals into categories of higher-risk for CD can identify those that would benefit from more invasive and costly definitive testing. The GRS is flexible and its performance can be adapted to the clinical situation by adjusting the threshold cut-off. Despite explaining a minority of disease heritability, our findings indicate a genomic risk score provides clinically relevant information to improve upon current diagnostic pathways for CD and support further studies evaluating the clinical utility of this approach in CD and other complex diseases. PMID:24550740

  3. Hippocampus neuronal metabolic gene expression outperforms whole tissue data in accurately predicting Alzheimer's disease progression.

    PubMed

    Stempler, Shiri; Waldman, Yedael Y; Wolf, Lior; Ruppin, Eytan

    2012-09-01

    Numerous metabolic alterations are associated with the impairment of brain cells in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Here we use gene expression microarrays of both whole hippocampus tissue and hippocampal neurons of AD patients to investigate the ability of metabolic gene expression to predict AD progression and its cognitive decline. We find that the prediction accuracy of different AD stages is markedly higher when using neuronal expression data (0.9) than when using whole tissue expression (0.76). Furthermore, the metabolic genes' expression is shown to be as effective in predicting AD severity as the entire gene list. Remarkably, a regression model from hippocampal metabolic gene expression leads to a marked correlation of 0.57 with the Mini-Mental State Examination cognitive score. Notably, the expression of top predictive neuronal genes in AD is significantly higher than that of other metabolic genes in the brains of healthy subjects. All together, the analyses point to a subset of metabolic genes that is strongly associated with normal brain functioning and whose disruption plays a major role in AD.

  4. Integrative subcellular proteomic analysis allows accurate prediction of human disease-causing genes

    PubMed Central

    Zhao, Li; Chen, Yiyun; Bajaj, Amol Onkar; Eblimit, Aiden; Xu, Mingchu; Soens, Zachry T.; Wang, Feng; Ge, Zhongqi; Jung, Sung Yun; He, Feng; Li, Yumei; Wensel, Theodore G.; Qin, Jun; Chen, Rui

    2016-01-01

    Proteomic profiling on subcellular fractions provides invaluable information regarding both protein abundance and subcellular localization. When integrated with other data sets, it can greatly enhance our ability to predict gene function genome-wide. In this study, we performed a comprehensive proteomic analysis on the light-sensing compartment of photoreceptors called the outer segment (OS). By comparing with the protein profile obtained from the retina tissue depleted of OS, an enrichment score for each protein is calculated to quantify protein subcellular localization, and 84% accuracy is achieved compared with experimental data. By integrating the protein OS enrichment score, the protein abundance, and the retina transcriptome, the probability of a gene playing an essential function in photoreceptor cells is derived with high specificity and sensitivity. As a result, a list of genes that will likely result in human retinal disease when mutated was identified and validated by previous literature and/or animal model studies. Therefore, this new methodology demonstrates the synergy of combining subcellular fractionation proteomics with other omics data sets and is generally applicable to other tissues and diseases. PMID:26912414

  5. The Need for Accurate Risk Prediction Models for Road Mapping, Shared Decision Making and Care Planning for the Elderly with Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease.

    PubMed

    Stryckers, Marijke; Nagler, Evi V; Van Biesen, Wim

    2016-11-01

    As people age, chronic kidney disease becomes more common, but it rarely leads to end-stage kidney disease. When it does, the choice between dialysis and conservative care can be daunting, as much depends on life expectancy and personal expectations of medical care. Shared decision making implies adequately informing patients about their options, and facilitating deliberation of the available information, such that decisions are tailored to the individual's values and preferences. Accurate estimations of one's risk of progression to end-stage kidney disease and death with or without dialysis are essential for shared decision making to be effective. Formal risk prediction models can help, provided they are externally validated, well-calibrated and discriminative; include unambiguous and measureable variables; and come with readily applicable equations or scores. Reliable, externally validated risk prediction models for progression of chronic kidney disease to end-stage kidney disease or mortality in frail elderly with or without chronic kidney disease are scant. Within this paper, we discuss a number of promising models, highlighting both the strengths and limitations physicians should understand for using them judiciously, and emphasize the need for external validation over new development for further advancing the field.

  6. New model accurately predicts reformate composition

    SciTech Connect

    Ancheyta-Juarez, J.; Aguilar-Rodriguez, E. )

    1994-01-31

    Although naphtha reforming is a well-known process, the evolution of catalyst formulation, as well as new trends in gasoline specifications, have led to rapid evolution of the process, including: reactor design, regeneration mode, and operating conditions. Mathematical modeling of the reforming process is an increasingly important tool. It is fundamental to the proper design of new reactors and revamp of existing ones. Modeling can be used to optimize operating conditions, analyze the effects of process variables, and enhance unit performance. Instituto Mexicano del Petroleo has developed a model of the catalytic reforming process that accurately predicts reformate composition at the higher-severity conditions at which new reformers are being designed. The new AA model is more accurate than previous proposals because it takes into account the effects of temperature and pressure on the rate constants of each chemical reaction.

  7. A gene expression biomarker accurately predicts estrogen ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    The EPA’s vision for the Endocrine Disruptor Screening Program (EDSP) in the 21st Century (EDSP21) includes utilization of high-throughput screening (HTS) assays coupled with computational modeling to prioritize chemicals with the goal of eventually replacing current Tier 1 screening tests. The ToxCast program currently includes 18 HTS in vitro assays that evaluate the ability of chemicals to modulate estrogen receptor α (ERα), an important endocrine target. We propose microarray-based gene expression profiling as a complementary approach to predict ERα modulation and have developed computational methods to identify ERα modulators in an existing database of whole-genome microarray data. The ERα biomarker consisted of 46 ERα-regulated genes with consistent expression patterns across 7 known ER agonists and 3 known ER antagonists. The biomarker was evaluated as a predictive tool using the fold-change rank-based Running Fisher algorithm by comparison to annotated gene expression data sets from experiments in MCF-7 cells. Using 141 comparisons from chemical- and hormone-treated cells, the biomarker gave a balanced accuracy for prediction of ERα activation or suppression of 94% or 93%, respectively. The biomarker was able to correctly classify 18 out of 21 (86%) OECD ER reference chemicals including “very weak” agonists and replicated predictions based on 18 in vitro ER-associated HTS assays. For 114 chemicals present in both the HTS data and the MCF-7 c

  8. You Can Accurately Predict Land Acquisition Costs.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Garrigan, Richard

    1967-01-01

    Land acquisition costs were tested for predictability based upon the 1962 assessed valuations of privately held land acquired for campus expansion by the University of Wisconsin from 1963-1965. By correlating the land acquisition costs of 108 properties acquired during the 3 year period with--(1) the assessed value of the land, (2) the assessed…

  9. Race-specific genetic risk score is more accurate than nonrace-specific genetic risk score for predicting prostate cancer and high-grade diseases.

    PubMed

    Na, Rong; Ye, Dingwei; Qi, Jun; Liu, Fang; Lin, Xiaoling; Helfand, Brian T; Brendler, Charles B; Conran, Carly; Gong, Jian; Wu, Yishuo; Gao, Xu; Chen, Yaqing; Zheng, S Lilly; Mo, Zengnan; Ding, Qiang; Sun, Yinghao; Xu, Jianfeng

    2016-01-01

    Genetic risk score (GRS) based on disease risk-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is an informative tool that can be used to provide inherited information for specific diseases in addition to family history. However, it is still unknown whether only SNPs that are implicated in a specific racial group should be used when calculating GRSs. The objective of this study is to compare the performance of race-specific GRS and nonrace-specific GRS for predicting prostate cancer (PCa) among 1338 patients underwent prostate biopsy in Shanghai, China. A race-specific GRS was calculated with seven PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in East Asians (GRS7), and a nonrace-specific GRS was calculated based on 76 PCa risk-associated SNPs implicated in at least one racial group (GRS76). The means of GRS7 and GRS76 were 1.19 and 1.85, respectively, in the study population. Higher GRS7 and GRS76 were independent predictors for PCa and high-grade PCa in univariate and multivariate analyses. GRS7 had a better area under the receiver-operating curve (AUC) than GRS76 for discriminating PCa (0.602 vs 0.573) and high-grade PCa (0.603 vs 0.575) but did not reach statistical significance. GRS7 had a better (up to 13% at different cutoffs) positive predictive value (PPV) than GRS76. In conclusion, a race-specific GRS is more robust and has a better performance when predicting PCa in East Asian men than a GRS calculated using SNPs that are not shown to be associated with East Asians.

  10. Towards more accurate vegetation mortality predictions

    DOE PAGES

    Sevanto, Sanna Annika; Xu, Chonggang

    2016-09-26

    Predicting the fate of vegetation under changing climate is one of the major challenges of the climate modeling community. Here, terrestrial vegetation dominates the carbon and water cycles over land areas, and dramatic changes in vegetation cover resulting from stressful environmental conditions such as drought feed directly back to local and regional climate, potentially leading to a vicious cycle where vegetation recovery after a disturbance is delayed or impossible.

  11. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

    PubMed Central

    Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-01-01

    Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale. PMID:26198229

  12. An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions.

    PubMed

    Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

    2015-07-07

    Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

  13. A predictable and accurate technique with elastomeric impression materials.

    PubMed

    Barghi, N; Ontiveros, J C

    1999-08-01

    A method for obtaining more predictable and accurate final impressions with polyvinylsiloxane impression materials in conjunction with stock trays is proposed and tested. Heavy impression material is used in advance for construction of a modified custom tray, while extra-light material is used for obtaining a more accurate final impression.

  14. Accurate torque-speed performance prediction for brushless dc motors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gipper, Patrick D.

    Desirable characteristics of the brushless dc motor (BLDCM) have resulted in their application for electrohydrostatic (EH) and electromechanical (EM) actuation systems. But to effectively apply the BLDCM requires accurate prediction of performance. The minimum necessary performance characteristics are motor torque versus speed, peak and average supply current and efficiency. BLDCM nonlinear simulation software specifically adapted for torque-speed prediction is presented. The capability of the software to quickly and accurately predict performance has been verified on fractional to integral HP motor sizes, and is presented. Additionally, the capability of torque-speed prediction with commutation angle advance is demonstrated.

  15. On the Accurate Prediction of CME Arrival At the Earth

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Jie; Hess, Phillip

    2016-07-01

    We will discuss relevant issues regarding the accurate prediction of CME arrival at the Earth, from both observational and theoretical points of view. In particular, we clarify the importance of separating the study of CME ejecta from the ejecta-driven shock in interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). For a number of CME-ICME events well observed by SOHO/LASCO, STEREO-A and STEREO-B, we carry out the 3-D measurements by superimposing geometries onto both the ejecta and sheath separately. These measurements are then used to constrain a Drag-Based Model, which is improved through a modification of including height dependence of the drag coefficient into the model. Combining all these factors allows us to create predictions for both fronts at 1 AU and compare with actual in-situ observations. We show an ability to predict the sheath arrival with an average error of under 4 hours, with an RMS error of about 1.5 hours. For the CME ejecta, the error is less than two hours with an RMS error within an hour. Through using the best observations of CMEs, we show the power of our method in accurately predicting CME arrival times. The limitation and implications of our accurate prediction method will be discussed.

  16. Passive samplers accurately predict PAH levels in resident crayfish.

    PubMed

    Paulik, L Blair; Smith, Brian W; Bergmann, Alan J; Sower, Greg J; Forsberg, Norman D; Teeguarden, Justin G; Anderson, Kim A

    2016-02-15

    Contamination of resident aquatic organisms is a major concern for environmental risk assessors. However, collecting organisms to estimate risk is often prohibitively time and resource-intensive. Passive sampling accurately estimates resident organism contamination, and it saves time and resources. This study used low density polyethylene (LDPE) passive water samplers to predict polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) levels in signal crayfish, Pacifastacus leniusculus. Resident crayfish were collected at 5 sites within and outside of the Portland Harbor Superfund Megasite (PHSM) in the Willamette River in Portland, Oregon. LDPE deployment was spatially and temporally paired with crayfish collection. Crayfish visceral and tail tissue, as well as water-deployed LDPE, were extracted and analyzed for 62 PAHs using GC-MS/MS. Freely-dissolved concentrations (Cfree) of PAHs in water were calculated from concentrations in LDPE. Carcinogenic risks were estimated for all crayfish tissues, using benzo[a]pyrene equivalent concentrations (BaPeq). ∑PAH were 5-20 times higher in viscera than in tails, and ∑BaPeq were 6-70 times higher in viscera than in tails. Eating only tail tissue of crayfish would therefore significantly reduce carcinogenic risk compared to also eating viscera. Additionally, PAH levels in crayfish were compared to levels in crayfish collected 10 years earlier. PAH levels in crayfish were higher upriver of the PHSM and unchanged within the PHSM after the 10-year period. Finally, a linear regression model predicted levels of 34 PAHs in crayfish viscera with an associated R-squared value of 0.52 (and a correlation coefficient of 0.72), using only the Cfree PAHs in water. On average, the model predicted PAH concentrations in crayfish tissue within a factor of 2.4 ± 1.8 of measured concentrations. This affirms that passive water sampling accurately estimates PAH contamination in crayfish. Furthermore, the strong predictive ability of this simple model suggests

  17. Inverter Modeling For Accurate Energy Predictions Of Tracking HCPV Installations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bowman, J.; Jensen, S.; McDonald, Mark

    2010-10-01

    High efficiency high concentration photovoltaic (HCPV) solar plants of megawatt scale are now operational, and opportunities for expanded adoption are plentiful. However, effective bidding for sites requires reliable prediction of energy production. HCPV module nameplate power is rated for specific test conditions; however, instantaneous HCPV power varies due to site specific irradiance and operating temperature, and is degraded by soiling, protective stowing, shading, and electrical connectivity. These factors interact with the selection of equipment typically supplied by third parties, e.g., wire gauge and inverters. We describe a time sequence model accurately accounting for these effects that predicts annual energy production, with specific reference to the impact of the inverter on energy output and interactions between system-level design decisions and the inverter. We will also show two examples, based on an actual field design, of inverter efficiency calculations and the interaction between string arrangements and inverter selection.

  18. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    SciTech Connect

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.

  19. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    DOE PAGES

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; ...

    2013-03-07

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of chargedmore » peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification.« less

  20. Basophile: Accurate Fragment Charge State Prediction Improves Peptide Identification Rates

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Dong; Dasari, Surendra; Chambers, Matthew C.; Holman, Jerry D.; Chen, Kan; Liebler, Daniel C.; Orton, Daniel J.; Purvine, Samuel O.; Monroe, Matthew E.; Chung, Chang Y.; Rose, Kristie L.; Tabb, David L.

    2013-01-01

    In shotgun proteomics, database search algorithms rely on fragmentation models to predict fragment ions that should be observed for a given peptide sequence. The most widely used strategy (Naive model) is oversimplified, cleaving all peptide bonds with equal probability to produce fragments of all charges below that of the precursor ion. More accurate models, based on fragmentation simulation, are too computationally intensive for on-the-fly use in database search algorithms. We have created an ordinal-regression-based model called Basophile that takes fragment size and basic residue distribution into account when determining the charge retention during CID/higher-energy collision induced dissociation (HCD) of charged peptides. This model improves the accuracy of predictions by reducing the number of unnecessary fragments that are routinely predicted for highly-charged precursors. Basophile increased the identification rates by 26% (on average) over the Naive model, when analyzing triply-charged precursors from ion trap data. Basophile achieves simplicity and speed by solving the prediction problem with an ordinal regression equation, which can be incorporated into any database search software for shotgun proteomic identification. PMID:23499924

  1. Mouse models of human AML accurately predict chemotherapy response

    PubMed Central

    Zuber, Johannes; Radtke, Ina; Pardee, Timothy S.; Zhao, Zhen; Rappaport, Amy R.; Luo, Weijun; McCurrach, Mila E.; Yang, Miao-Miao; Dolan, M. Eileen; Kogan, Scott C.; Downing, James R.; Lowe, Scott W.

    2009-01-01

    The genetic heterogeneity of cancer influences the trajectory of tumor progression and may underlie clinical variation in therapy response. To model such heterogeneity, we produced genetically and pathologically accurate mouse models of common forms of human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and developed methods to mimic standard induction chemotherapy and efficiently monitor therapy response. We see that murine AMLs harboring two common human AML genotypes show remarkably diverse responses to conventional therapy that mirror clinical experience. Specifically, murine leukemias expressing the AML1/ETO fusion oncoprotein, associated with a favorable prognosis in patients, show a dramatic response to induction chemotherapy owing to robust activation of the p53 tumor suppressor network. Conversely, murine leukemias expressing MLL fusion proteins, associated with a dismal prognosis in patients, are drug-resistant due to an attenuated p53 response. Our studies highlight the importance of genetic information in guiding the treatment of human AML, functionally establish the p53 network as a central determinant of chemotherapy response in AML, and demonstrate that genetically engineered mouse models of human cancer can accurately predict therapy response in patients. PMID:19339691

  2. Mouse models of human AML accurately predict chemotherapy response.

    PubMed

    Zuber, Johannes; Radtke, Ina; Pardee, Timothy S; Zhao, Zhen; Rappaport, Amy R; Luo, Weijun; McCurrach, Mila E; Yang, Miao-Miao; Dolan, M Eileen; Kogan, Scott C; Downing, James R; Lowe, Scott W

    2009-04-01

    The genetic heterogeneity of cancer influences the trajectory of tumor progression and may underlie clinical variation in therapy response. To model such heterogeneity, we produced genetically and pathologically accurate mouse models of common forms of human acute myeloid leukemia (AML) and developed methods to mimic standard induction chemotherapy and efficiently monitor therapy response. We see that murine AMLs harboring two common human AML genotypes show remarkably diverse responses to conventional therapy that mirror clinical experience. Specifically, murine leukemias expressing the AML1/ETO fusion oncoprotein, associated with a favorable prognosis in patients, show a dramatic response to induction chemotherapy owing to robust activation of the p53 tumor suppressor network. Conversely, murine leukemias expressing MLL fusion proteins, associated with a dismal prognosis in patients, are drug-resistant due to an attenuated p53 response. Our studies highlight the importance of genetic information in guiding the treatment of human AML, functionally establish the p53 network as a central determinant of chemotherapy response in AML, and demonstrate that genetically engineered mouse models of human cancer can accurately predict therapy response in patients.

  3. Turbulence Models for Accurate Aerothermal Prediction in Hypersonic Flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zhang, Xiang-Hong; Wu, Yi-Zao; Wang, Jiang-Feng

    Accurate description of the aerodynamic and aerothermal environment is crucial to the integrated design and optimization for high performance hypersonic vehicles. In the simulation of aerothermal environment, the effect of viscosity is crucial. The turbulence modeling remains a major source of uncertainty in the computational prediction of aerodynamic forces and heating. In this paper, three turbulent models were studied: the one-equation eddy viscosity transport model of Spalart-Allmaras, the Wilcox k-ω model and the Menter SST model. For the k-ω model and SST model, the compressibility correction, press dilatation and low Reynolds number correction were considered. The influence of these corrections for flow properties were discussed by comparing with the results without corrections. In this paper the emphasis is on the assessment and evaluation of the turbulence models in prediction of heat transfer as applied to a range of hypersonic flows with comparison to experimental data. This will enable establishing factor of safety for the design of thermal protection systems of hypersonic vehicle.

  4. Simple Mathematical Models Do Not Accurately Predict Early SIV Dynamics

    PubMed Central

    Noecker, Cecilia; Schaefer, Krista; Zaccheo, Kelly; Yang, Yiding; Day, Judy; Ganusov, Vitaly V.

    2015-01-01

    Upon infection of a new host, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) replicates in the mucosal tissues and is generally undetectable in circulation for 1–2 weeks post-infection. Several interventions against HIV including vaccines and antiretroviral prophylaxis target virus replication at this earliest stage of infection. Mathematical models have been used to understand how HIV spreads from mucosal tissues systemically and what impact vaccination and/or antiretroviral prophylaxis has on viral eradication. Because predictions of such models have been rarely compared to experimental data, it remains unclear which processes included in these models are critical for predicting early HIV dynamics. Here we modified the “standard” mathematical model of HIV infection to include two populations of infected cells: cells that are actively producing the virus and cells that are transitioning into virus production mode. We evaluated the effects of several poorly known parameters on infection outcomes in this model and compared model predictions to experimental data on infection of non-human primates with variable doses of simian immunodifficiency virus (SIV). First, we found that the mode of virus production by infected cells (budding vs. bursting) has a minimal impact on the early virus dynamics for a wide range of model parameters, as long as the parameters are constrained to provide the observed rate of SIV load increase in the blood of infected animals. Interestingly and in contrast with previous results, we found that the bursting mode of virus production generally results in a higher probability of viral extinction than the budding mode of virus production. Second, this mathematical model was not able to accurately describe the change in experimentally determined probability of host infection with increasing viral doses. Third and finally, the model was also unable to accurately explain the decline in the time to virus detection with increasing viral dose. These results

  5. Fast and accurate predictions of covalent bonds in chemical space

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chang, K. Y. Samuel; Fias, Stijn; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole

    2016-05-01

    We assess the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among molecules. We have investigated σ bonding to hydrogen, as well as σ and π bonding between main-group elements, occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecules with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order Taylor expansions of covalent bonding potentials can achieve high accuracy if (i) the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry), (ii) it involves elements from the third and fourth rows of the periodic table, and (iii) an optimal reference geometry is used. This leads to near linear changes in the bonding potential, resulting in analytical predictions with chemical accuracy (˜1 kcal/mol). Second order estimates deteriorate the prediction. If initial and final molecules differ not only in composition but also in geometry, all estimates become substantially worse, with second order being slightly more accurate than first order. The independent particle approximation based second order perturbation theory performs poorly when compared to the coupled perturbed or finite difference approach. Taylor series expansions up to fourth order of the potential energy curve of highly symmetric systems indicate a finite radius of convergence, as illustrated for the alchemical stretching of H 2+ . Results are presented for (i) covalent bonds to hydrogen in 12 molecules with 8 valence electrons (CH4, NH3, H2O, HF, SiH4, PH3, H2S, HCl, GeH4, AsH3, H2Se, HBr); (ii) main-group single bonds in 9 molecules with 14 valence electrons (CH3F, CH3Cl, CH3Br, SiH3F, SiH3Cl, SiH3Br, GeH3F, GeH3Cl, GeH3Br); (iii) main-group double bonds in 9 molecules with 12 valence electrons (CH2O, CH2S, CH2Se, SiH2O, SiH2S, SiH2Se, GeH2O, GeH2S, GeH2Se); (iv) main-group triple bonds in 9 molecules with 10 valence electrons (HCN, HCP, HCAs, HSiN, HSi

  6. Fast and accurate predictions of covalent bonds in chemical space.

    PubMed

    Chang, K Y Samuel; Fias, Stijn; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole

    2016-05-07

    We assess the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among molecules. We have investigated σ bonding to hydrogen, as well as σ and π bonding between main-group elements, occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecules with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the p-block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order Taylor expansions of covalent bonding potentials can achieve high accuracy if (i) the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry), (ii) it involves elements from the third and fourth rows of the periodic table, and (iii) an optimal reference geometry is used. This leads to near linear changes in the bonding potential, resulting in analytical predictions with chemical accuracy (∼1 kcal/mol). Second order estimates deteriorate the prediction. If initial and final molecules differ not only in composition but also in geometry, all estimates become substantially worse, with second order being slightly more accurate than first order. The independent particle approximation based second order perturbation theory performs poorly when compared to the coupled perturbed or finite difference approach. Taylor series expansions up to fourth order of the potential energy curve of highly symmetric systems indicate a finite radius of convergence, as illustrated for the alchemical stretching of H2 (+). Results are presented for (i) covalent bonds to hydrogen in 12 molecules with 8 valence electrons (CH4, NH3, H2O, HF, SiH4, PH3, H2S, HCl, GeH4, AsH3, H2Se, HBr); (ii) main-group single bonds in 9 molecules with 14 valence electrons (CH3F, CH3Cl, CH3Br, SiH3F, SiH3Cl, SiH3Br, GeH3F, GeH3Cl, GeH3Br); (iii) main-group double bonds in 9 molecules with 12 valence electrons (CH2O, CH2S, CH2Se, SiH2O, SiH2S, SiH2Se, GeH2O, GeH2S, GeH2Se); (iv) main-group triple bonds in 9 molecules with 10 valence electrons (HCN, HCP, HCAs, HSiN, HSi

  7. IRIS: Towards an Accurate and Fast Stage Weight Prediction Method

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Taponier, V.; Balu, A.

    2002-01-01

    The knowledge of the structural mass fraction (or the mass ratio) of a given stage, which affects the performance of a rocket, is essential for the analysis of new or upgraded launchers or stages, whose need is increased by the quick evolution of the space programs and by the necessity of their adaptation to the market needs. The availability of this highly scattered variable, ranging between 0.05 and 0.15, is of primary importance at the early steps of the preliminary design studies. At the start of the staging and performance studies, the lack of frozen weight data (to be obtained later on from propulsion, trajectory and sizing studies) leads to rely on rough estimates, generally derived from printed sources and adapted. When needed, a consolidation can be acquired trough a specific analysis activity involving several techniques and implying additional effort and time. The present empirical approach allows thus to get approximated values (i.e. not necessarily accurate or consistent), inducing some result inaccuracy as well as, consequently, difficulties of performance ranking for a multiple option analysis, and an increase of the processing duration. This forms a classical harsh fact of the preliminary design system studies, insufficiently discussed to date. It appears therefore highly desirable to have, for all the evaluation activities, a reliable, fast and easy-to-use weight or mass fraction prediction method. Additionally, the latter should allow for a pre selection of the alternative preliminary configurations, making possible a global system approach. For that purpose, an attempt at modeling has been undertaken, whose objective was the determination of a parametric formulation of the mass fraction, to be expressed from a limited number of parameters available at the early steps of the project. It is based on the innovative use of a statistical method applicable to a variable as a function of several independent parameters. A specific polynomial generator

  8. Prediction of Preoperative Anxiety in Children: Who is Most Accurate?

    PubMed Central

    MacLaren, Jill E.; Thompson, Caitlin; Weinberg, Megan; Fortier, Michelle A.; Morrison, Debra E.; Perret, Danielle; Kain, Zeev N.

    2009-01-01

    Background In this investigation, we sought to assess the ability of pediatric attending anesthesiologists, resident anesthesiologists and mothers to predict anxiety during induction of anesthesia in 2 to 16-year-old children (n=125). Methods Anesthesiologists and mothers provided predictions using a visual analog scale and children's anxiety was assessed using a valid behavior observation tool the Modified Yale Preoperative Anxiety Scale (mYPAS). All mothers were present during anesthetic induction and no child received sedative premedication. Correlational analyses were conducted. Results A total of 125 children aged 2 to 16 years, their mothers, and their attending pediatric anesthesiologists and resident anesthesiologists were studied. Correlational analyses revealed significant associations between attending predictions and child anxiety at induction (rs= 0.38, p<0.001). Resident anesthesiologist and mother predictions were not significantly related to children's anxiety during induction (rs = 0.01 and 0.001, respectively). In terms of accuracy of prediction, 47.2% of predictions made by attending anesthesiologists were within one standard deviation of the observed anxiety exhibited by the child, and 70.4% of predictions were within 2 standard deviations. Conclusions We conclude that attending anesthesiologists who practice in pediatric settings are better than mothers in predicting the anxiety of children during induction of anesthesia. While this finding has significant clinical implications, it is unclear if it can be extended to attending anesthesiologists whose practice is not mostly pediatric anesthesia. PMID:19448201

  9. A Critical Review for Developing Accurate and Dynamic Predictive Models Using Machine Learning Methods in Medicine and Health Care.

    PubMed

    Alanazi, Hamdan O; Abdullah, Abdul Hanan; Qureshi, Kashif Naseer

    2017-04-01

    Recently, Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been used widely in medicine and health care sector. In machine learning, the classification or prediction is a major field of AI. Today, the study of existing predictive models based on machine learning methods is extremely active. Doctors need accurate predictions for the outcomes of their patients' diseases. In addition, for accurate predictions, timing is another significant factor that influences treatment decisions. In this paper, existing predictive models in medicine and health care have critically reviewed. Furthermore, the most famous machine learning methods have explained, and the confusion between a statistical approach and machine learning has clarified. A review of related literature reveals that the predictions of existing predictive models differ even when the same dataset is used. Therefore, existing predictive models are essential, and current methods must be improved.

  10. Is Three-Dimensional Soft Tissue Prediction by Software Accurate?

    PubMed

    Nam, Ki-Uk; Hong, Jongrak

    2015-11-01

    The authors assessed whether virtual surgery, performed with a soft tissue prediction program, could correctly simulate the actual surgical outcome, focusing on soft tissue movement. Preoperative and postoperative computed tomography (CT) data for 29 patients, who had undergone orthognathic surgery, were obtained and analyzed using the Simplant Pro software. The program made a predicted soft tissue image (A) based on presurgical CT data. After the operation, we obtained actual postoperative CT data and an actual soft tissue image (B) was generated. Finally, the 2 images (A and B) were superimposed and analyzed differences between the A and B. Results were grouped in 2 classes: absolute values and vector values. In the absolute values, the left mouth corner was the most significant error point (2.36 mm). The right mouth corner (2.28 mm), labrale inferius (2.08 mm), and the pogonion (2.03 mm) also had significant errors. In vector values, prediction of the right-left side had a left-sided tendency, the superior-inferior had a superior tendency, and the anterior-posterior showed an anterior tendency. As a result, with this program, the position of points tended to be located more left, anterior, and superior than the "real" situation. There is a need to improve the prediction accuracy for soft tissue images. Such software is particularly valuable in predicting craniofacial soft tissues landmarks, such as the pronasale. With this software, landmark positions were most inaccurate in terms of anterior-posterior predictions.

  11. Fast and accurate automatic structure prediction with HHpred.

    PubMed

    Hildebrand, Andrea; Remmert, Michael; Biegert, Andreas; Söding, Johannes

    2009-01-01

    Automated protein structure prediction is becoming a mainstream tool for biological research. This has been fueled by steady improvements of publicly available automated servers over the last decade, in particular their ability to build good homology models for an increasing number of targets by reliably detecting and aligning more and more remotely homologous templates. Here, we describe the three fully automated versions of the HHpred server that participated in the community-wide blind protein structure prediction competition CASP8. What makes HHpred unique is the combination of usability, short response times (typically under 15 min) and a model accuracy that is competitive with those of the best servers in CASP8.

  12. Accurate perception of negative emotions predicts functional capacity in schizophrenia.

    PubMed

    Abram, Samantha V; Karpouzian, Tatiana M; Reilly, James L; Derntl, Birgit; Habel, Ute; Smith, Matthew J

    2014-04-30

    Several studies suggest facial affect perception (FAP) deficits in schizophrenia are linked to poorer social functioning. However, whether reduced functioning is associated with inaccurate perception of specific emotional valence or a global FAP impairment remains unclear. The present study examined whether impairment in the perception of specific emotional valences (positive, negative) and neutrality were uniquely associated with social functioning, using a multimodal social functioning battery. A sample of 59 individuals with schizophrenia and 41 controls completed a computerized FAP task, and measures of functional capacity, social competence, and social attainment. Participants also underwent neuropsychological testing and symptom assessment. Regression analyses revealed that only accurately perceiving negative emotions explained significant variance (7.9%) in functional capacity after accounting for neurocognitive function and symptoms. Partial correlations indicated that accurately perceiving anger, in particular, was positively correlated with functional capacity. FAP for positive, negative, or neutral emotions were not related to social competence or social attainment. Our findings were consistent with prior literature suggesting negative emotions are related to functional capacity in schizophrenia. Furthermore, the observed relationship between perceiving anger and performance of everyday living skills is novel and warrants further exploration.

  13. Towards Accurate Ab Initio Predictions of the Spectrum of Methane

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Schwenke, David W.; Kwak, Dochan (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    We have carried out extensive ab initio calculations of the electronic structure of methane, and these results are used to compute vibrational energy levels. We include basis set extrapolations, core-valence correlation, relativistic effects, and Born- Oppenheimer breakdown terms in our calculations. Our ab initio predictions of the lowest lying levels are superb.

  14. Accurate Theoretical Prediction of the Properties of Energetic Materials

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    calculations (e.g. Cheetah ). 8. Sensitivity. The structure prediction and lattice potential work will serve as a platform to examine impact/shock...nitromethane molecules. (In an extension of the present work, we will freeze the internal coordinates of the molecules and assess the extent to which the

  15. Learning regulatory programs that accurately predict differential expression with MEDUSA.

    PubMed

    Kundaje, Anshul; Lianoglou, Steve; Li, Xuejing; Quigley, David; Arias, Marta; Wiggins, Chris H; Zhang, Li; Leslie, Christina

    2007-12-01

    Inferring gene regulatory networks from high-throughput genomic data is one of the central problems in computational biology. In this paper, we describe a predictive modeling approach for studying regulatory networks, based on a machine learning algorithm called MEDUSA. MEDUSA integrates promoter sequence, mRNA expression, and transcription factor occupancy data to learn gene regulatory programs that predict the differential expression of target genes. Instead of using clustering or correlation of expression profiles to infer regulatory relationships, MEDUSA determines condition-specific regulators and discovers regulatory motifs that mediate the regulation of target genes. In this way, MEDUSA meaningfully models biological mechanisms of transcriptional regulation. MEDUSA solves the problem of predicting the differential (up/down) expression of target genes by using boosting, a technique from statistical learning, which helps to avoid overfitting as the algorithm searches through the high-dimensional space of potential regulators and sequence motifs. Experimental results demonstrate that MEDUSA achieves high prediction accuracy on held-out experiments (test data), that is, data not seen in training. We also present context-specific analysis of MEDUSA regulatory programs for DNA damage and hypoxia, demonstrating that MEDUSA identifies key regulators and motifs in these processes. A central challenge in the field is the difficulty of validating reverse-engineered networks in the absence of a gold standard. Our approach of learning regulatory programs provides at least a partial solution for the problem: MEDUSA's prediction accuracy on held-out data gives a concrete and statistically sound way to validate how well the algorithm performs. With MEDUSA, statistical validation becomes a prerequisite for hypothesis generation and network building rather than a secondary consideration.

  16. Standardized EEG interpretation accurately predicts prognosis after cardiac arrest

    PubMed Central

    Rossetti, Andrea O.; van Rootselaar, Anne-Fleur; Wesenberg Kjaer, Troels; Horn, Janneke; Ullén, Susann; Friberg, Hans; Nielsen, Niklas; Rosén, Ingmar; Åneman, Anders; Erlinge, David; Gasche, Yvan; Hassager, Christian; Hovdenes, Jan; Kjaergaard, Jesper; Kuiper, Michael; Pellis, Tommaso; Stammet, Pascal; Wanscher, Michael; Wetterslev, Jørn; Wise, Matt P.; Cronberg, Tobias

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To identify reliable predictors of outcome in comatose patients after cardiac arrest using a single routine EEG and standardized interpretation according to the terminology proposed by the American Clinical Neurophysiology Society. Methods: In this cohort study, 4 EEG specialists, blinded to outcome, evaluated prospectively recorded EEGs in the Target Temperature Management trial (TTM trial) that randomized patients to 33°C vs 36°C. Routine EEG was performed in patients still comatose after rewarming. EEGs were classified into highly malignant (suppression, suppression with periodic discharges, burst-suppression), malignant (periodic or rhythmic patterns, pathological or nonreactive background), and benign EEG (absence of malignant features). Poor outcome was defined as best Cerebral Performance Category score 3–5 until 180 days. Results: Eight TTM sites randomized 202 patients. EEGs were recorded in 103 patients at a median 77 hours after cardiac arrest; 37% had a highly malignant EEG and all had a poor outcome (specificity 100%, sensitivity 50%). Any malignant EEG feature had a low specificity to predict poor prognosis (48%) but if 2 malignant EEG features were present specificity increased to 96% (p < 0.001). Specificity and sensitivity were not significantly affected by targeted temperature or sedation. A benign EEG was found in 1% of the patients with a poor outcome. Conclusions: Highly malignant EEG after rewarming reliably predicted poor outcome in half of patients without false predictions. An isolated finding of a single malignant feature did not predict poor outcome whereas a benign EEG was highly predictive of a good outcome. PMID:26865516

  17. How Accurately Can We Predict Eclipses for Algol? (Poster abstract)

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Turner, D.

    2016-06-01

    (Abstract only) beta Persei, or Algol, is a very well known eclipsing binary system consisting of a late B-type dwarf that is regularly eclipsed by a GK subgiant every 2.867 days. Eclipses, which last about 8 hours, are regular enough that predictions for times of minima are published in various places, Sky & Telescope magazine and The Observer's Handbook, for example. But eclipse minimum lasts for less than a half hour, whereas subtle mistakes in the current ephemeris for the star can result in predictions that are off by a few hours or more. The Algol system is fairly complex, with the Algol A and Algol B eclipsing system also orbited by Algol C with an orbital period of nearly 2 years. Added to that are complex long-term O-C variations with a periodicity of almost two centuries that, although suggested by Hoffmeister to be spurious, fit the type of light travel time variations expected for a fourth star also belonging to the system. The AB sub-system also undergoes mass transfer events that add complexities to its O-C behavior. Is it actually possible to predict precise times of eclipse minima for Algol months in advance given such complications, or is it better to encourage ongoing observations of the star so that O-C variations can be tracked in real time?

  18. Predictive rendering for accurate material perception: modeling and rendering fabrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bala, Kavita

    2012-03-01

    In computer graphics, rendering algorithms are used to simulate the appearance of objects and materials in a wide range of applications. Designers and manufacturers rely entirely on these rendered images to previsualize scenes and products before manufacturing them. They need to differentiate between different types of fabrics, paint finishes, plastics, and metals, often with subtle differences, for example, between silk and nylon, formaica and wood. Thus, these applications need predictive algorithms that can produce high-fidelity images that enable such subtle material discrimination.

  19. Can numerical simulations accurately predict hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid films?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Denner, Fabian; Charogiannis, Alexandros; Pradas, Marc; van Wachem, Berend G. M.; Markides, Christos N.; Kalliadasis, Serafim

    2014-11-01

    Understanding the dynamics of hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid film flows is an active field of research in fluid dynamics and non-linear science in general. Numerical simulations offer a powerful tool to study hydrodynamic instabilities in film flows and can provide deep insights into the underlying physical phenomena. However, the direct comparison of numerical results and experimental results is often hampered by several reasons. For instance, in numerical simulations the interface representation is problematic and the governing equations and boundary conditions may be oversimplified, whereas in experiments it is often difficult to extract accurate information on the fluid and its behavior, e.g. determine the fluid properties when the liquid contains particles for PIV measurements. In this contribution we present the latest results of our on-going, extensive study on hydrodynamic instabilities in liquid film flows, which includes direct numerical simulations, low-dimensional modelling as well as experiments. The major focus is on wave regimes, wave height and wave celerity as a function of Reynolds number and forcing frequency of a falling liquid film. Specific attention is paid to the differences in numerical and experimental results and the reasons for these differences. The authors are grateful to the EPSRC for their financial support (Grant EP/K008595/1).

  20. Combining Structural Modeling with Ensemble Machine Learning to Accurately Predict Protein Fold Stability and Binding Affinity Effects upon Mutation

    PubMed Central

    Garcia Lopez, Sebastian; Kim, Philip M.

    2014-01-01

    Advances in sequencing have led to a rapid accumulation of mutations, some of which are associated with diseases. However, to draw mechanistic conclusions, a biochemical understanding of these mutations is necessary. For coding mutations, accurate prediction of significant changes in either the stability of proteins or their affinity to their binding partners is required. Traditional methods have used semi-empirical force fields, while newer methods employ machine learning of sequence and structural features. Here, we show how combining both of these approaches leads to a marked boost in accuracy. We introduce ELASPIC, a novel ensemble machine learning approach that is able to predict stability effects upon mutation in both, domain cores and domain-domain interfaces. We combine semi-empirical energy terms, sequence conservation, and a wide variety of molecular details with a Stochastic Gradient Boosting of Decision Trees (SGB-DT) algorithm. The accuracy of our predictions surpasses existing methods by a considerable margin, achieving correlation coefficients of 0.77 for stability, and 0.75 for affinity predictions. Notably, we integrated homology modeling to enable proteome-wide prediction and show that accurate prediction on modeled structures is possible. Lastly, ELASPIC showed significant differences between various types of disease-associated mutations, as well as between disease and common neutral mutations. Unlike pure sequence-based prediction methods that try to predict phenotypic effects of mutations, our predictions unravel the molecular details governing the protein instability, and help us better understand the molecular causes of diseases. PMID:25243403

  1. Objective criteria accurately predict amputation following lower extremity trauma.

    PubMed

    Johansen, K; Daines, M; Howey, T; Helfet, D; Hansen, S T

    1990-05-01

    MESS (Mangled Extremity Severity Score) is a simple rating scale for lower extremity trauma, based on skeletal/soft-tissue damage, limb ischemia, shock, and age. Retrospective analysis of severe lower extremity injuries in 25 trauma victims demonstrated a significant difference between MESS values for 17 limbs ultimately salvaged (mean, 4.88 +/- 0.27) and nine requiring amputation (mean, 9.11 +/- 0.51) (p less than 0.01). A prospective trial of MESS in lower extremity injuries managed at two trauma centers again demonstrated a significant difference between MESS values of 14 salvaged (mean, 4.00 +/- 0.28) and 12 doomed (mean, 8.83 +/- 0.53) limbs (p less than 0.01). In both the retrospective survey and the prospective trial, a MESS value greater than or equal to 7 predicted amputation with 100% accuracy. MESS may be useful in selecting trauma victims whose irretrievably injured lower extremities warrant primary amputation.

  2. Improved Ecosystem Predictions of the California Current System via Accurate Light Calculations

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-09-30

    System via Accurate Light Calculations Curtis D. Mobley Sequoia Scientific, Inc. 2700 Richards Road, Suite 107 Bellevue, WA 98005 phone: 425...incorporate extremely fast but accurate light calculations into coupled physical-biological-optical ocean ecosystem models as used for operational three...dimensional ecosystem predictions. Improvements in light calculations lead to improvements in predictions of chlorophyll concentrations and other

  3. Generating highly accurate prediction hypotheses through collaborative ensemble learning

    PubMed Central

    Arsov, Nino; Pavlovski, Martin; Basnarkov, Lasko; Kocarev, Ljupco

    2017-01-01

    Ensemble generation is a natural and convenient way of achieving better generalization performance of learning algorithms by gathering their predictive capabilities. Here, we nurture the idea of ensemble-based learning by combining bagging and boosting for the purpose of binary classification. Since the former improves stability through variance reduction, while the latter ameliorates overfitting, the outcome of a multi-model that combines both strives toward a comprehensive net-balancing of the bias-variance trade-off. To further improve this, we alter the bagged-boosting scheme by introducing collaboration between the multi-model’s constituent learners at various levels. This novel stability-guided classification scheme is delivered in two flavours: during or after the boosting process. Applied among a crowd of Gentle Boost ensembles, the ability of the two suggested algorithms to generalize is inspected by comparing them against Subbagging and Gentle Boost on various real-world datasets. In both cases, our models obtained a 40% generalization error decrease. But their true ability to capture details in data was revealed through their application for protein detection in texture analysis of gel electrophoresis images. They achieve improved performance of approximately 0.9773 AUROC when compared to the AUROC of 0.9574 obtained by an SVM based on recursive feature elimination. PMID:28304378

  4. Accurate predictions for the production of vaporized water

    SciTech Connect

    Morin, E.; Montel, F.

    1995-12-31

    The production of water vaporized in the gas phase is controlled by the local conditions around the wellbore. The pressure gradient applied to the formation creates a sharp increase of the molar water content in the hydrocarbon phase approaching the well; this leads to a drop in the pore water saturation around the wellbore. The extent of the dehydrated zone which is formed is the key controlling the bottom-hole content of vaporized water. The maximum water content in the hydrocarbon phase at a given pressure, temperature and salinity is corrected by capillarity or adsorption phenomena depending on the actual water saturation. Describing the mass transfer of the water between the hydrocarbon phases and the aqueous phase into the tubing gives a clear idea of vaporization effects on the formation of scales. Field example are presented for gas fields with temperatures ranging between 140{degrees}C and 180{degrees}C, where water vaporization effects are significant. Conditions for salt plugging in the tubing are predicted.

  5. Generating highly accurate prediction hypotheses through collaborative ensemble learning

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Arsov, Nino; Pavlovski, Martin; Basnarkov, Lasko; Kocarev, Ljupco

    2017-03-01

    Ensemble generation is a natural and convenient way of achieving better generalization performance of learning algorithms by gathering their predictive capabilities. Here, we nurture the idea of ensemble-based learning by combining bagging and boosting for the purpose of binary classification. Since the former improves stability through variance reduction, while the latter ameliorates overfitting, the outcome of a multi-model that combines both strives toward a comprehensive net-balancing of the bias-variance trade-off. To further improve this, we alter the bagged-boosting scheme by introducing collaboration between the multi-model’s constituent learners at various levels. This novel stability-guided classification scheme is delivered in two flavours: during or after the boosting process. Applied among a crowd of Gentle Boost ensembles, the ability of the two suggested algorithms to generalize is inspected by comparing them against Subbagging and Gentle Boost on various real-world datasets. In both cases, our models obtained a 40% generalization error decrease. But their true ability to capture details in data was revealed through their application for protein detection in texture analysis of gel electrophoresis images. They achieve improved performance of approximately 0.9773 AUROC when compared to the AUROC of 0.9574 obtained by an SVM based on recursive feature elimination.

  6. Accurate prediction of severe allergic reactions by a small set of environmental parameters (NDVI, temperature).

    PubMed

    Notas, George; Bariotakis, Michail; Kalogrias, Vaios; Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

    2015-01-01

    Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions.

  7. Accurate Prediction of Severe Allergic Reactions by a Small Set of Environmental Parameters (NDVI, Temperature)

    PubMed Central

    Andrianaki, Maria; Azariadis, Kalliopi; Kampouri, Errika; Theodoropoulou, Katerina; Lavrentaki, Katerina; Kastrinakis, Stelios; Kampa, Marilena; Agouridakis, Panagiotis; Pirintsos, Stergios; Castanas, Elias

    2015-01-01

    Severe allergic reactions of unknown etiology,necessitating a hospital visit, have an important impact in the life of affected individuals and impose a major economic burden to societies. The prediction of clinically severe allergic reactions would be of great importance, but current attempts have been limited by the lack of a well-founded applicable methodology and the wide spatiotemporal distribution of allergic reactions. The valid prediction of severe allergies (and especially those needing hospital treatment) in a region, could alert health authorities and implicated individuals to take appropriate preemptive measures. In the present report we have collecterd visits for serious allergic reactions of unknown etiology from two major hospitals in the island of Crete, for two distinct time periods (validation and test sets). We have used the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a satellite-based, freely available measurement, which is an indicator of live green vegetation at a given geographic area, and a set of meteorological data to develop a model capable of describing and predicting severe allergic reaction frequency. Our analysis has retained NDVI and temperature as accurate identifiers and predictors of increased hospital severe allergic reactions visits. Our approach may contribute towards the development of satellite-based modules, for the prediction of severe allergic reactions in specific, well-defined geographical areas. It could also probably be used for the prediction of other environment related diseases and conditions. PMID:25794106

  8. Change in BMI Accurately Predicted by Social Exposure to Acquaintances

    PubMed Central

    Oloritun, Rahman O.; Ouarda, Taha B. M. J.; Moturu, Sai; Madan, Anmol; Pentland, Alex (Sandy); Khayal, Inas

    2013-01-01

    Research has mostly focused on obesity and not on processes of BMI change more generally, although these may be key factors that lead to obesity. Studies have suggested that obesity is affected by social ties. However these studies used survey based data collection techniques that may be biased toward select only close friends and relatives. In this study, mobile phone sensing techniques were used to routinely capture social interaction data in an undergraduate dorm. By automating the capture of social interaction data, the limitations of self-reported social exposure data are avoided. This study attempts to understand and develop a model that best describes the change in BMI using social interaction data. We evaluated a cohort of 42 college students in a co-located university dorm, automatically captured via mobile phones and survey based health-related information. We determined the most predictive variables for change in BMI using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method. The selected variables, with gender, healthy diet category, and ability to manage stress, were used to build multiple linear regression models that estimate the effect of exposure and individual factors on change in BMI. We identified the best model using Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and R2. This study found a model that explains 68% (p<0.0001) of the variation in change in BMI. The model combined social interaction data, especially from acquaintances, and personal health-related information to explain change in BMI. This is the first study taking into account both interactions with different levels of social interaction and personal health-related information. Social interactions with acquaintances accounted for more than half the variation in change in BMI. This suggests the importance of not only individual health information but also the significance of social interactions with people we are exposed to, even people we may not consider as close friends. PMID

  9. Fast and accurate pressure-drop prediction in straightened atherosclerotic coronary arteries.

    PubMed

    Schrauwen, Jelle T C; Koeze, Dion J; Wentzel, Jolanda J; van de Vosse, Frans N; van der Steen, Anton F W; Gijsen, Frank J H

    2015-01-01

    Atherosclerotic disease progression in coronary arteries is influenced by wall shear stress. To compute patient-specific wall shear stress, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is required. In this study we propose a method for computing the pressure-drop in regions proximal and distal to a plaque, which can serve as a boundary condition in CFD. As a first step towards exploring the proposed method we investigated ten straightened coronary arteries. First, the flow fields were calculated with CFD and velocity profiles were fitted on the results. Second, the Navier-Stokes equation was simplified and solved with the found velocity profiles to obtain a pressure-drop estimate (Δp (1)). Next, Δp (1) was compared to the pressure-drop from CFD (Δp CFD) as a validation step. Finally, the velocity profiles, and thus the pressure-drop were predicted based on geometry and flow, resulting in Δp geom. We found that Δp (1) adequately estimated Δp CFD with velocity profiles that have one free parameter β. This β was successfully related to geometry and flow, resulting in an excellent agreement between Δp CFD and Δp geom: 3.9 ± 4.9% difference at Re = 150. We showed that this method can quickly and accurately predict pressure-drop on the basis of geometry and flow in straightened coronary arteries that are mildly diseased.

  10. Do MCI criteria in drug trials accurately identify subjects with predementia Alzheimer's disease?

    PubMed Central

    Visser, P; Scheltens, P; Verhey, F

    2005-01-01

    Background: Drugs effective in Alzheimer-type dementia have been tested in subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) because these are supposed to have Alzheimer's disease in the predementia stage. Objectives: To investigate whether MCI criteria used in these drug trials can accurately diagnose subjects with predementia Alzheimer's disease. Methods: MCI criteria of the Gal-Int 11 study, InDDEx study, ADCS memory impairment study, ampakine CX 516 study, piracetam study, and Merck rofecoxib study were applied retrospectively in a cohort of 150 non-demented subjects from a memory clinic. Forty two had progressed to Alzheimer type dementia during a five year follow up period and were considered to have predementia Alzheimer's disease at baseline. Outcome measures were the odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value. Results: The odds ratio of the MCI criteria for predementia Alzheimer's disease varied between 0.84 and 11. Sensitivity varied between 0.46 and 0.83 and positive predictive value between 0.43 and 0.76. None of the criteria combined a high sensitivity with a high positive predictive value. Exclusion criteria for depression led to an increase in positive predictive value and specificity at the cost of sensitivity. In subjects older than 65 years the positive predictive value was higher than in younger subjects. Conclusions: The diagnostic accuracy of MCI criteria used in trials for predementia Alzheimer's disease is low to moderate. Their use may lead to inclusion of many patients who do not have predementia Alzheimer's disease or to exclusion of many who do. Subjects with moderately severe depression should not be excluded from trials in order not to reduce the sensitivity. PMID:16170074

  11. ChIP-seq Accurately Predicts Tissue-Specific Activity of Enhancers

    SciTech Connect

    Visel, Axel; Blow, Matthew J.; Li, Zirong; Zhang, Tao; Akiyama, Jennifer A.; Holt, Amy; Plajzer-Frick, Ingrid; Shoukry, Malak; Wright, Crystal; Chen, Feng; Afzal, Veena; Ren, Bing; Rubin, Edward M.; Pennacchio, Len A.

    2009-02-01

    A major yet unresolved quest in decoding the human genome is the identification of the regulatory sequences that control the spatial and temporal expression of genes. Distant-acting transcriptional enhancers are particularly challenging to uncover since they are scattered amongst the vast non-coding portion of the genome. Evolutionary sequence constraint can facilitate the discovery of enhancers, but fails to predict when and where they are active in vivo. Here, we performed chromatin immunoprecipitation with the enhancer-associated protein p300, followed by massively-parallel sequencing, to map several thousand in vivo binding sites of p300 in mouse embryonic forebrain, midbrain, and limb tissue. We tested 86 of these sequences in a transgenic mouse assay, which in nearly all cases revealed reproducible enhancer activity in those tissues predicted by p300 binding. Our results indicate that in vivo mapping of p300 binding is a highly accurate means for identifying enhancers and their associated activities and suggest that such datasets will be useful to study the role of tissue-specific enhancers in human biology and disease on a genome-wide scale.

  12. Accurate telemonitoring of Parkinson's disease diagnosis using robust inference system.

    PubMed

    Mandal, Indrajit; Sairam, N

    2013-05-01

    This work presents more precise computational methods for improving the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease based on the detection of dysphonia. New methods are presented for enhanced evaluation and recognize Parkinson's disease affected patients at early stage. Analysis is performed with significant level of error tolerance rate and established our results with corrected T-test. Here new ensembles and other machine learning methods consisting of multinomial logistic regression classifier with Haar wavelets transformation as projection filter that outperform logistic regression is used. Finally a novel and reliable inference system is presented for early recognition of people affected by this disease and presents a new measure of the severity of the disease. Feature selection method is based on Support Vector Machines and ranker search method. Performance analysis of each model is compared to the existing methods and examines the main advancements and concludes with propitious results. Reliable methods are proposed for treating Parkinson's disease that includes sparse multinomial logistic regression, Bayesian network, Support Vector Machines, Artificial Neural Networks, Boosting methods and their ensembles. The study aim at improving the quality of Parkinson's disease treatment by tracking them and reinforce the viability of cost effective, regular and precise telemonitoring application.

  13. Accurate stone analysis: the impact on disease diagnosis and treatment.

    PubMed

    Mandel, Neil S; Mandel, Ian C; Kolbach-Mandel, Ann M

    2017-02-01

    This manuscript reviews the requirements for acceptable compositional analysis of kidney stones using various biophysical methods. High-resolution X-ray powder diffraction crystallography and Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) are the only acceptable methods in our labs for kidney stone analysis. The use of well-constructed spectral reference libraries is the basis for accurate and complete stone analysis. The literature included in this manuscript identify errors in most commercial laboratories and in some academic centers. We provide personal comments on why such errors are occurring at such high rates, and although the work load is rather large, it is very worthwhile in providing accurate stone compositions. We also provide the results of our almost 90,000 stone analyses and a breakdown of the number of components we have observed in the various stones. We also offer advice on determining the method used by the various FTIR equipment manufacturers who also provide a stone analysis library so that the FTIR users can feel comfortable in the accuracy of their reported results. Such an analysis on the accuracy of the individual reference libraries could positively influence the reduction in their respective error rates.

  14. Accurate Prediction of One-Dimensional Protein Structure Features Using SPINE-X.

    PubMed

    Faraggi, Eshel; Kloczkowski, Andrzej

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of protein secondary structure and other one-dimensional structure features is essential for accurate sequence alignment, three-dimensional structure modeling, and function prediction. SPINE-X is a software package to predict secondary structure as well as accessible surface area and dihedral angles ϕ and ψ. For secondary structure SPINE-X achieves an accuracy of between 81 and 84 % depending on the dataset and choice of tests. The Pearson correlation coefficient for accessible surface area prediction is 0.75 and the mean absolute error from the ϕ and ψ dihedral angles are 20(∘) and 33(∘), respectively. The source code and a Linux executables for SPINE-X are available from Research and Information Systems at http://mamiris.com .

  15. New consensus definition for acute kidney injury accurately predicts 30-day mortality in cirrhosis with infection

    PubMed Central

    Wong, Florence; O’Leary, Jacqueline G; Reddy, K Rajender; Patton, Heather; Kamath, Patrick S; Fallon, Michael B; Garcia-Tsao, Guadalupe; Subramanian, Ram M.; Malik, Raza; Maliakkal, Benedict; Thacker, Leroy R; Bajaj, Jasmohan S

    2015-01-01

    Background & Aims A consensus conference proposed that cirrhosis-associated acute kidney injury (AKI) be defined as an increase in serum creatinine by >50% from the stable baseline value in <6 months or by ≥0.3mg/dL in <48 hrs. We prospectively evaluated the ability of these criteria to predict mortality within 30 days among hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and infection. Methods 337 patients with cirrhosis admitted with or developed an infection in hospital (56% men; 56±10 y old; model for end-stage liver disease score, 20±8) were followed. We compared data on 30-day mortality, hospital length-of-stay, and organ failure between patients with and without AKI. Results 166 (49%) developed AKI during hospitalization, based on the consensus criteria. Patients who developed AKI had higher admission Child-Pugh (11.0±2.1 vs 9.6±2.1; P<.0001), and MELD scores (23±8 vs17±7; P<.0001), and lower mean arterial pressure (81±16mmHg vs 85±15mmHg; P<.01) than those who did not. Also higher amongst patients with AKI were mortality in ≤30 days (34% vs 7%), intensive care unit transfer (46% vs 20%), ventilation requirement (27% vs 6%), and shock (31% vs 8%); AKI patients also had longer hospital stays (17.8±19.8 days vs 13.3±31.8 days) (all P<.001). 56% of AKI episodes were transient, 28% persistent, and 16% resulted in dialysis. Mortality was 80% among those without renal recovery, higher compared to partial (40%) or complete recovery (15%), or AKI-free patients (7%; P<.0001). Conclusions 30-day mortality is 10-fold higher among infected hospitalized cirrhotic patients with irreversible AKI than those without AKI. The consensus definition of AKI accurately predicts 30-day mortality, length of hospital stay, and organ failure. PMID:23999172

  16. Accurate prediction of adsorption energies on graphene, using a dispersion-corrected semiempirical method including solvation.

    PubMed

    Vincent, Mark A; Hillier, Ian H

    2014-08-25

    The accurate prediction of the adsorption energies of unsaturated molecules on graphene in the presence of water is essential for the design of molecules that can modify its properties and that can aid its processability. We here show that a semiempirical MO method corrected for dispersive interactions (PM6-DH2) can predict the adsorption energies of unsaturated hydrocarbons and the effect of substitution on these values to an accuracy comparable to DFT values and in good agreement with the experiment. The adsorption energies of TCNE, TCNQ, and a number of sulfonated pyrenes are also predicted, along with the effect of hydration using the COSMO model.

  17. Accurately predicting copper interconnect topographies in foundry design for manufacturability flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Daniel; Fan, Zhong; Tak, Ki Duk; Chang, Li-Fu; Zou, Elain; Jiang, Jenny; Yang, Josh; Zhuang, Linda; Chen, Kuang Han; Hurat, Philippe; Ding, Hua

    2011-04-01

    This paper presents a model-based Chemical Mechanical Polishing (CMP) Design for Manufacturability (DFM) () methodology that includes an accurate prediction of post-CMP copper interconnect topographies at the advanced process technology nodes. Using procedures of extensive model calibration and validation, the CMP process model accurately predicts post-CMP dimensions, such as erosion, dishing, and copper thickness with excellent correlation to silicon measurements. This methodology provides an efficient DFM flow to detect and fix physical manufacturing hotspots related to copper pooling and Depth of Focus (DOF) failures at both block- and full chip level designs. Moreover, the predicted thickness output is used in the CMP-aware RC extraction and Timing analysis flows for better understanding of performance yield and timing impact. In addition, the CMP model can be applied to the verification of model-based dummy fill flows.

  18. Cas9-chromatin binding information enables more accurate CRISPR off-target prediction

    PubMed Central

    Singh, Ritambhara; Kuscu, Cem; Quinlan, Aaron; Qi, Yanjun; Adli, Mazhar

    2015-01-01

    The CRISPR system has become a powerful biological tool with a wide range of applications. However, improving targeting specificity and accurately predicting potential off-targets remains a significant goal. Here, we introduce a web-based CRISPR/Cas9 Off-target Prediction and Identification Tool (CROP-IT) that performs improved off-target binding and cleavage site predictions. Unlike existing prediction programs that solely use DNA sequence information; CROP-IT integrates whole genome level biological information from existing Cas9 binding and cleavage data sets. Utilizing whole-genome chromatin state information from 125 human cell types further enhances its computational prediction power. Comparative analyses on experimentally validated datasets show that CROP-IT outperforms existing computational algorithms in predicting both Cas9 binding as well as cleavage sites. With a user-friendly web-interface, CROP-IT outputs scored and ranked list of potential off-targets that enables improved guide RNA design and more accurate prediction of Cas9 binding or cleavage sites. PMID:26032770

  19. An effective method for accurate prediction of the first hyperpolarizability of alkalides.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jia-Nan; Xu, Hong-Liang; Sun, Shi-Ling; Gao, Ting; Li, Hong-Zhi; Li, Hui; Su, Zhong-Min

    2012-01-15

    The proper theoretical calculation method for nonlinear optical (NLO) properties is a key factor to design the excellent NLO materials. Yet it is a difficult task to obatin the accurate NLO property of large scale molecule. In present work, an effective intelligent computing method, as called extreme learning machine-neural network (ELM-NN), is proposed to predict accurately the first hyperpolarizability (β(0)) of alkalides from low-accuracy first hyperpolarizability. Compared with neural network (NN) and genetic algorithm neural network (GANN), the root-mean-square deviations of the predicted values obtained by ELM-NN, GANN, and NN with their MP2 counterpart are 0.02, 0.08, and 0.17 a.u., respectively. It suggests that the predicted values obtained by ELM-NN are more accurate than those calculated by NN and GANN methods. Another excellent point of ELM-NN is the ability to obtain the high accuracy level calculated values with less computing cost. Experimental results show that the computing time of MP2 is 2.4-4 times of the computing time of ELM-NN. Thus, the proposed method is a potentially powerful tool in computational chemistry, and it may predict β(0) of the large scale molecules, which is difficult to obtain by high-accuracy theoretical method due to dramatic increasing computational cost.

  20. Hash: a Program to Accurately Predict Protein Hα Shifts from Neighboring Backbone Shifts3

    PubMed Central

    Zeng, Jianyang; Zhou, Pei; Donald, Bruce Randall

    2012-01-01

    Chemical shifts provide not only peak identities for analyzing NMR data, but also an important source of conformational information for studying protein structures. Current structural studies requiring Hα chemical shifts suffer from the following limitations. (1) For large proteins, the Hα chemical shifts can be difficult to assign using conventional NMR triple-resonance experiments, mainly due to the fast transverse relaxation rate of Cα that restricts the signal sensitivity. (2) Previous chemical shift prediction approaches either require homologous models with high sequence similarity or rely heavily on accurate backbone and side-chain structural coordinates. When neither sequence homologues nor structural coordinates are available, we must resort to other information to predict Hα chemical shifts. Predicting accurate Hα chemical shifts using other obtainable information, such as the chemical shifts of nearby backbone atoms (i.e., adjacent atoms in the sequence), can remedy the above dilemmas, and hence advance NMR-based structural studies of proteins. By specifically exploiting the dependencies on chemical shifts of nearby backbone atoms, we propose a novel machine learning algorithm, called Hash, to predict Hα chemical shifts. Hash combines a new fragment-based chemical shift search approach with a non-parametric regression model, called the generalized additive model, to effectively solve the prediction problem. We demonstrate that the chemical shifts of nearby backbone atoms provide a reliable source of information for predicting accurate Hα chemical shifts. Our testing results on different possible combinations of input data indicate that Hash has a wide rage of potential NMR applications in structural and biological studies of proteins. PMID:23242797

  1. Accurate Prediction of Ligand Affinities for a Proton-Dependent Oligopeptide Transporter

    PubMed Central

    Samsudin, Firdaus; Parker, Joanne L.; Sansom, Mark S.P.; Newstead, Simon; Fowler, Philip W.

    2016-01-01

    Summary Membrane transporters are critical modulators of drug pharmacokinetics, efficacy, and safety. One example is the proton-dependent oligopeptide transporter PepT1, also known as SLC15A1, which is responsible for the uptake of the β-lactam antibiotics and various peptide-based prodrugs. In this study, we modeled the binding of various peptides to a bacterial homolog, PepTSt, and evaluated a range of computational methods for predicting the free energy of binding. Our results show that a hybrid approach (endpoint methods to classify peptides into good and poor binders and a theoretically exact method for refinement) is able to accurately predict affinities, which we validated using proteoliposome transport assays. Applying the method to a homology model of PepT1 suggests that the approach requires a high-quality structure to be accurate. Our study provides a blueprint for extending these computational methodologies to other pharmaceutically important transporter families. PMID:27028887

  2. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

    2017-04-01

    Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

  3. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Stratified Steel Temperature During Holding Period of Ladle

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deodhar, Anirudh; Singh, Umesh; Shukla, Rishabh; Gautham, B. P.; Singh, Amarendra K.

    2016-12-01

    Thermal stratification of liquid steel in a ladle during the holding period and the teeming operation has a direct bearing on the superheat available at the caster and hence on the caster set points such as casting speed and cooling rates. The changes in the caster set points are typically carried out based on temperature measurements at the end of tundish outlet. Thermal prediction models provide advance knowledge of the influence of process and design parameters on the steel temperature at various stages. Therefore, they can be used in making accurate decisions about the caster set points in real time. However, this requires both fast and accurate thermal prediction models. In this work, we develop a surrogate model for the prediction of thermal stratification using data extracted from a set of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations, pre-determined using design of experiments technique. Regression method is used for training the predictor. The model predicts the stratified temperature profile instantaneously, for a given set of process parameters such as initial steel temperature, refractory heat content, slag thickness, and holding time. More than 96 pct of the predicted values are within an error range of ±5 K (±5 °C), when compared against corresponding CFD results. Considering its accuracy and computational efficiency, the model can be extended for thermal control of casting operations. This work also sets a benchmark for developing similar thermal models for downstream processes such as tundish and caster.

  4. Can phenological models predict tree phenology accurately under climate change conditions?

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chuine, Isabelle; Bonhomme, Marc; Legave, Jean Michel; García de Cortázar-Atauri, Inaki; Charrier, Guillaume; Lacointe, André; Améglio, Thierry

    2014-05-01

    The onset of the growing season of trees has been globally earlier by 2.3 days/decade during the last 50 years because of global warming and this trend is predicted to continue according to climate forecast. The effect of temperature on plant phenology is however not linear because temperature has a dual effect on bud development. On one hand, low temperatures are necessary to break bud dormancy, and on the other hand higher temperatures are necessary to promote bud cells growth afterwards. Increasing phenological changes in temperate woody species have strong impacts on forest trees distribution and productivity, as well as crops cultivation areas. Accurate predictions of trees phenology are therefore a prerequisite to understand and foresee the impacts of climate change on forests and agrosystems. Different process-based models have been developed in the last two decades to predict the date of budburst or flowering of woody species. They are two main families: (1) one-phase models which consider only the ecodormancy phase and make the assumption that endodormancy is always broken before adequate climatic conditions for cell growth occur; and (2) two-phase models which consider both the endodormancy and ecodormancy phases and predict a date of dormancy break which varies from year to year. So far, one-phase models have been able to predict accurately tree bud break and flowering under historical climate. However, because they do not consider what happens prior to ecodormancy, and especially the possible negative effect of winter temperature warming on dormancy break, it seems unlikely that they can provide accurate predictions in future climate conditions. It is indeed well known that a lack of low temperature results in abnormal pattern of bud break and development in temperate fruit trees. An accurate modelling of the dormancy break date has thus become a major issue in phenology modelling. Two-phases phenological models predict that global warming should delay

  5. Use of prediction markets to forecast infectious disease activity.

    PubMed

    Polgreen, Philip M; Nelson, Forrest D; Neumann, George R

    2007-01-15

    Prediction markets have accurately forecasted the outcomes of a wide range of future events, including sales of computer printers, elections, and the Federal Reserve's decisions about interest rates. We propose that prediction markets may be useful for tracking and forecasting emerging infectious diseases, such as severe acute respiratory syndrome and avian influenza, by aggregating expert opinion quickly, accurately, and inexpensively. Data from a pilot study in the state of Iowa suggest that these markets can accurately predict statewide seasonal influenza activity 2-4 weeks in advance by using clinical data volunteered from participating health care workers. Information revealed by prediction markets may help to inform treatment, prevention, and policy decisions. Also, these markets could help to refine existing surveillance systems.

  6. Predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Tibben, Aad

    2007-04-30

    Worldwide, predictive testing for Huntington's disease has become an accepted clinical application that has allowed many individuals from HD-families to proceed with their life without the uncertainty of being at risk. International guidelines have extensively contributed to establishing counselling programmes of high quality, and have served as a model for other genetic disorders. Psychological follow-up studies have increased the insight into the far-reaching impact of test results for all individuals involved. Although the guidelines have served as a useful frame of reference, clinical experience has shown the importance of a case-by-case approach to do justice to the specific needs of the individual test candidate. Issues such as ambiguous test results, lack of awareness in a test candidate of early signs of the disease, non-compliance to the test protocol, or the test candidate's need for information on the relationship between age at onset and CAG-repeat require careful consideration. Receiving a test result is only one of the transition points in the life of an individual at risk; such result needs to be valued from a life-cycle perspective.

  7. Rapid and Highly Accurate Prediction of Poor Loop Diuretic Natriuretic Response in Patients With Heart Failure

    PubMed Central

    Testani, Jeffrey M.; Hanberg, Jennifer S.; Cheng, Susan; Rao, Veena; Onyebeke, Chukwuma; Laur, Olga; Kula, Alexander; Chen, Michael; Wilson, F. Perry; Darlington, Andrew; Bellumkonda, Lavanya; Jacoby, Daniel; Tang, W. H. Wilson; Parikh, Chirag R.

    2015-01-01

    Background Removal of excess sodium and fluid is a primary therapeutic objective in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) and commonly monitored with fluid balance and weight loss. However, these parameters are frequently inaccurate or not collected and require a delay of several hours after diuretic administration before they are available. Accessible tools for rapid and accurate prediction of diuretic response are needed. Methods and Results Based on well-established renal physiologic principles an equation was derived to predict net sodium output using a spot urine sample obtained one or two hours following loop diuretic administration. This equation was then prospectively validated in 50 ADHF patients using meticulously obtained timed 6-hour urine collections to quantitate loop diuretic induced cumulative sodium output. Poor natriuretic response was defined as a cumulative sodium output of <50 mmol, a threshold that would result in a positive sodium balance with twice-daily diuretic dosing. Following a median dose of 3 mg (2–4 mg) of intravenous bumetanide, 40% of the population had a poor natriuretic response. The correlation between measured and predicted sodium output was excellent (r=0.91, p<0.0001). Poor natriuretic response could be accurately predicted with the sodium prediction equation (AUC=0.95, 95% CI 0.89–1.0, p<0.0001). Clinically recorded net fluid output had a weaker correlation (r=0.66, p<0.001) and lesser ability to predict poor natriuretic response (AUC=0.76, 95% CI 0.63–0.89, p=0.002). Conclusions In patients being treated for ADHF, poor natriuretic response can be predicted soon after diuretic administration with excellent accuracy using a spot urine sample. PMID:26721915

  8. Bicluster Sampled Coherence Metric (BSCM) provides an accurate environmental context for phenotype predictions

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background Biclustering is a popular method for identifying under which experimental conditions biological signatures are co-expressed. However, the general biclustering problem is NP-hard, offering room to focus algorithms on specific biological tasks. We hypothesize that conditional co-regulation of genes is a key factor in determining cell phenotype and that accurately segregating conditions in biclusters will improve such predictions. Thus, we developed a bicluster sampled coherence metric (BSCM) for determining which conditions and signals should be included in a bicluster. Results Our BSCM calculates condition and cluster size specific p-values, and we incorporated these into the popular integrated biclustering algorithm cMonkey. We demonstrate that incorporation of our new algorithm significantly improves bicluster co-regulation scores (p-value = 0.009) and GO annotation scores (p-value = 0.004). Additionally, we used a bicluster based signal to predict whether a given experimental condition will result in yeast peroxisome induction. Using the new algorithm, the classifier accuracy improves from 41.9% to 76.1% correct. Conclusions We demonstrate that the proposed BSCM helps determine which signals ought to be co-clustered, resulting in more accurately assigned bicluster membership. Furthermore, we show that BSCM can be extended to more accurately detect under which experimental conditions the genes are co-clustered. Features derived from this more accurate analysis of conditional regulation results in a dramatic improvement in the ability to predict a cellular phenotype in yeast. The latest cMonkey is available for download at https://github.com/baliga-lab/cmonkey2. The experimental data and source code featured in this paper is available http://AitchisonLab.com/BSCM. BSCM has been incorporated in the official cMonkey release. PMID:25881257

  9. Highly Accurate Structure-Based Prediction of HIV-1 Coreceptor Usage Suggests Intermolecular Interactions Driving Tropism.

    PubMed

    Kieslich, Chris A; Tamamis, Phanourios; Guzman, Yannis A; Onel, Melis; Floudas, Christodoulos A

    2016-01-01

    HIV-1 entry into host cells is mediated by interactions between the V3-loop of viral glycoprotein gp120 and chemokine receptor CCR5 or CXCR4, collectively known as HIV-1 coreceptors. Accurate genotypic prediction of coreceptor usage is of significant clinical interest and determination of the factors driving tropism has been the focus of extensive study. We have developed a method based on nonlinear support vector machines to elucidate the interacting residue pairs driving coreceptor usage and provide highly accurate coreceptor usage predictions. Our models utilize centroid-centroid interaction energies from computationally derived structures of the V3-loop:coreceptor complexes as primary features, while additional features based on established rules regarding V3-loop sequences are also investigated. We tested our method on 2455 V3-loop sequences of various lengths and subtypes, and produce a median area under the receiver operator curve of 0.977 based on 500 runs of 10-fold cross validation. Our study is the first to elucidate a small set of specific interacting residue pairs between the V3-loop and coreceptors capable of predicting coreceptor usage with high accuracy across major HIV-1 subtypes. The developed method has been implemented as a web tool named CRUSH, CoReceptor USage prediction for HIV-1, which is available at http://ares.tamu.edu/CRUSH/.

  10. Accurate similarity index based on activity and connectivity of node for link prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Longjie; Qian, Lvjian; Wang, Xiaoping; Luo, Shishun; Chen, Xiaoyun

    2015-05-01

    Recent years have witnessed the increasing of available network data; however, much of those data is incomplete. Link prediction, which can find the missing links of a network, plays an important role in the research and analysis of complex networks. Based on the assumption that two unconnected nodes which are highly similar are very likely to have an interaction, most of the existing algorithms solve the link prediction problem by computing nodes' similarities. The fundamental requirement of those algorithms is accurate and effective similarity indices. In this paper, we propose a new similarity index, namely similarity based on activity and connectivity (SAC), which performs link prediction more accurately. To compute the similarity between two nodes, this index employs the average activity of these two nodes in their common neighborhood and the connectivities between them and their common neighbors. The higher the average activity is and the stronger the connectivities are, the more similar the two nodes are. The proposed index not only commendably distinguishes the contributions of paths but also incorporates the influence of endpoints. Therefore, it can achieve a better predicting result. To verify the performance of SAC, we conduct experiments on 10 real-world networks. Experimental results demonstrate that SAC outperforms the compared baselines.

  11. Accurate prediction of the linear viscoelastic properties of highly entangled mono and bidisperse polymer melts.

    PubMed

    Stephanou, Pavlos S; Mavrantzas, Vlasis G

    2014-06-07

    We present a hierarchical computational methodology which permits the accurate prediction of the linear viscoelastic properties of entangled polymer melts directly from the chemical structure, chemical composition, and molecular architecture of the constituent chains. The method entails three steps: execution of long molecular dynamics simulations with moderately entangled polymer melts, self-consistent mapping of the accumulated trajectories onto a tube model and parameterization or fine-tuning of the model on the basis of detailed simulation data, and use of the modified tube model to predict the linear viscoelastic properties of significantly higher molecular weight (MW) melts of the same polymer. Predictions are reported for the zero-shear-rate viscosity η0 and the spectra of storage G'(ω) and loss G″(ω) moduli for several mono and bidisperse cis- and trans-1,4 polybutadiene melts as well as for their MW dependence, and are found to be in remarkable agreement with experimentally measured rheological data.

  12. Prediction of Accurate Thermochemistry of Medium and Large Sized Radicals Using Connectivity-Based Hierarchy (CBH).

    PubMed

    Sengupta, Arkajyoti; Raghavachari, Krishnan

    2014-10-14

    Accurate modeling of the chemical reactions in many diverse areas such as combustion, photochemistry, or atmospheric chemistry strongly depends on the availability of thermochemical information of the radicals involved. However, accurate thermochemical investigations of radical systems using state of the art composite methods have mostly been restricted to the study of hydrocarbon radicals of modest size. In an alternative approach, systematic error-canceling thermochemical hierarchy of reaction schemes can be applied to yield accurate results for such systems. In this work, we have extended our connectivity-based hierarchy (CBH) method to the investigation of radical systems. We have calibrated our method using a test set of 30 medium sized radicals to evaluate their heats of formation. The CBH-rad30 test set contains radicals containing diverse functional groups as well as cyclic systems. We demonstrate that the sophisticated error-canceling isoatomic scheme (CBH-2) with modest levels of theory is adequate to provide heats of formation accurate to ∼1.5 kcal/mol. Finally, we predict heats of formation of 19 other large and medium sized radicals for which the accuracy of available heats of formation are less well-known.

  13. Planar Near-Field Phase Retrieval Using GPUs for Accurate THz Far-Field Prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Junkin, Gary

    2013-04-01

    With a view to using Phase Retrieval to accurately predict Terahertz antenna far-field from near-field intensity measurements, this paper reports on three fundamental advances that achieve very low algorithmic error penalties. The first is a new Gaussian beam analysis that provides accurate initial complex aperture estimates including defocus and astigmatic phase errors, based only on first and second moment calculations. The second is a powerful noise tolerant near-field Phase Retrieval algorithm that combines Anderson's Plane-to-Plane (PTP) with Fienup's Hybrid-Input-Output (HIO) and Successive Over-Relaxation (SOR) to achieve increased accuracy at reduced scan separations. The third advance employs teraflop Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) to achieve practically real time near-field phase retrieval and to obtain the optimum aperture constraint without any a priori information.

  14. Machine Learning Predictions of Molecular Properties: Accurate Many-Body Potentials and Nonlocality in Chemical Space.

    PubMed

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; von Lilienfeld, O Anatole; Müller, Klaus-Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-06-18

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. In addition, the same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.

  15. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    DOE PAGES

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; ...

    2015-06-04

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstratemore » prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.« less

  16. Machine learning predictions of molecular properties: Accurate many-body potentials and nonlocality in chemical space

    SciTech Connect

    Hansen, Katja; Biegler, Franziska; Ramakrishnan, Raghunathan; Pronobis, Wiktor; von Lilienfeld, O. Anatole; Müller, Klaus -Robert; Tkatchenko, Alexandre

    2015-06-04

    Simultaneously accurate and efficient prediction of molecular properties throughout chemical compound space is a critical ingredient toward rational compound design in chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Aiming toward this goal, we develop and apply a systematic hierarchy of efficient empirical methods to estimate atomization and total energies of molecules. These methods range from a simple sum over atoms, to addition of bond energies, to pairwise interatomic force fields, reaching to the more sophisticated machine learning approaches that are capable of describing collective interactions between many atoms or bonds. In the case of equilibrium molecular geometries, even simple pairwise force fields demonstrate prediction accuracy comparable to benchmark energies calculated using density functional theory with hybrid exchange-correlation functionals; however, accounting for the collective many-body interactions proves to be essential for approaching the “holy grail” of chemical accuracy of 1 kcal/mol for both equilibrium and out-of-equilibrium geometries. This remarkable accuracy is achieved by a vectorized representation of molecules (so-called Bag of Bonds model) that exhibits strong nonlocality in chemical space. The same representation allows us to predict accurate electronic properties of molecules, such as their polarizability and molecular frontier orbital energies.

  17. A Novel Method for Accurate Operon Predictions in All SequencedProkaryotes

    SciTech Connect

    Price, Morgan N.; Huang, Katherine H.; Alm, Eric J.; Arkin, Adam P.

    2004-12-01

    We combine comparative genomic measures and the distance separating adjacent genes to predict operons in 124 completely sequenced prokaryotic genomes. Our method automatically tailors itself to each genome using sequence information alone, and thus can be applied to any prokaryote. For Escherichia coli K12 and Bacillus subtilis, our method is 85 and 83% accurate, respectively, which is similar to the accuracy of methods that use the same features but are trained on experimentally characterized transcripts. In Halobacterium NRC-1 and in Helicobacterpylori, our method correctly infers that genes in operons are separated by shorter distances than they are in E.coli, and its predictions using distance alone are more accurate than distance-only predictions trained on a database of E.coli transcripts. We use microarray data from sixphylogenetically diverse prokaryotes to show that combining intergenic distance with comparative genomic measures further improves accuracy and that our method is broadly effective. Finally, we survey operon structure across 124 genomes, and find several surprises: H.pylori has many operons, contrary to previous reports; Bacillus anthracis has an unusual number of pseudogenes within conserved operons; and Synechocystis PCC6803 has many operons even though it has unusually wide spacings between conserved adjacent genes.

  18. How many standard area diagram sets are needed for accurate disease severity assessment

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Standard area diagram sets (SADs) are widely used in plant pathology: a rater estimates disease severity by comparing an unknown sample to actual severities in the SADs and interpolates an estimate as accurately as possible (although some SADs have been developed for categorizing disease too). Most ...

  19. Development and Validation of a Multidisciplinary Tool for Accurate and Efficient Rotorcraft Noise Prediction (MUTE)

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Liu, Yi; Anusonti-Inthra, Phuriwat; Diskin, Boris

    2011-01-01

    A physics-based, systematically coupled, multidisciplinary prediction tool (MUTE) for rotorcraft noise was developed and validated with a wide range of flight configurations and conditions. MUTE is an aggregation of multidisciplinary computational tools that accurately and efficiently model the physics of the source of rotorcraft noise, and predict the noise at far-field observer locations. It uses systematic coupling approaches among multiple disciplines including Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD), Computational Structural Dynamics (CSD), and high fidelity acoustics. Within MUTE, advanced high-order CFD tools are used around the rotor blade to predict the transonic flow (shock wave) effects, which generate the high-speed impulsive noise. Predictions of the blade-vortex interaction noise in low speed flight are also improved by using the Particle Vortex Transport Method (PVTM), which preserves the wake flow details required for blade/wake and fuselage/wake interactions. The accuracy of the source noise prediction is further improved by utilizing a coupling approach between CFD and CSD, so that the effects of key structural dynamics, elastic blade deformations, and trim solutions are correctly represented in the analysis. The blade loading information and/or the flow field parameters around the rotor blade predicted by the CFD/CSD coupling approach are used to predict the acoustic signatures at far-field observer locations with a high-fidelity noise propagation code (WOPWOP3). The predicted results from the MUTE tool for rotor blade aerodynamic loading and far-field acoustic signatures are compared and validated with a variation of experimental data sets, such as UH60-A data, DNW test data and HART II test data.

  20. Microstructure-Dependent Gas Adsorption: Accurate Predictions of Methane Uptake in Nanoporous Carbons

    SciTech Connect

    Ihm, Yungok; Cooper, Valentino R; Gallego, Nidia C; Contescu, Cristian I; Morris, James R

    2014-01-01

    We demonstrate a successful, efficient framework for predicting gas adsorption properties in real materials based on first-principles calculations, with a specific comparison of experiment and theory for methane adsorption in activated carbons. These carbon materials have different pore size distributions, leading to a variety of uptake characteristics. Utilizing these distributions, we accurately predict experimental uptakes and heats of adsorption without empirical potentials or lengthy simulations. We demonstrate that materials with smaller pores have higher heats of adsorption, leading to a higher gas density in these pores. This pore-size dependence must be accounted for, in order to predict and understand the adsorption behavior. The theoretical approach combines: (1) ab initio calculations with a van der Waals density functional to determine adsorbent-adsorbate interactions, and (2) a thermodynamic method that predicts equilibrium adsorption densities by directly incorporating the calculated potential energy surface in a slit pore model. The predicted uptake at P=20 bar and T=298 K is in excellent agreement for all five activated carbon materials used. This approach uses only the pore-size distribution as an input, with no fitting parameters or empirical adsorbent-adsorbate interactions, and thus can be easily applied to other adsorbent-adsorbate combinations.

  1. Accurate bearing remaining useful life prediction based on Weibull distribution and artificial neural network

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ben Ali, Jaouher; Chebel-Morello, Brigitte; Saidi, Lotfi; Malinowski, Simon; Fnaiech, Farhat

    2015-05-01

    Accurate remaining useful life (RUL) prediction of critical assets is an important challenge in condition based maintenance to improve reliability and decrease machine's breakdown and maintenance's cost. Bearing is one of the most important components in industries which need to be monitored and the user should predict its RUL. The challenge of this study is to propose an original feature able to evaluate the health state of bearings and to estimate their RUL by Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) techniques. In this paper, the proposed method is based on the data-driven prognostic approach. The combination of Simplified Fuzzy Adaptive Resonance Theory Map (SFAM) neural network and Weibull distribution (WD) is explored. WD is used just in the training phase to fit measurement and to avoid areas of fluctuation in the time domain. SFAM training process is based on fitted measurements at present and previous inspection time points as input. However, the SFAM testing process is based on real measurements at present and previous inspections. Thanks to the fuzzy learning process, SFAM has an important ability and a good performance to learn nonlinear time series. As output, seven classes are defined; healthy bearing and six states for bearing degradation. In order to find the optimal RUL prediction, a smoothing phase is proposed in this paper. Experimental results show that the proposed method can reliably predict the RUL of rolling element bearings (REBs) based on vibration signals. The proposed prediction approach can be applied to prognostic other various mechanical assets.

  2. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    PubMed Central

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    2015-01-01

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access to precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. The SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded. PMID:25979264

  3. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    SciTech Connect

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    2015-05-15

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access to precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. Lastly, the SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.

  4. SIFTER search: a web server for accurate phylogeny-based protein function prediction

    DOE PAGES

    Sahraeian, Sayed M.; Luo, Kevin R.; Brenner, Steven E.

    2015-05-15

    We are awash in proteins discovered through high-throughput sequencing projects. As only a minuscule fraction of these have been experimentally characterized, computational methods are widely used for automated annotation. Here, we introduce a user-friendly web interface for accurate protein function prediction using the SIFTER algorithm. SIFTER is a state-of-the-art sequence-based gene molecular function prediction algorithm that uses a statistical model of function evolution to incorporate annotations throughout the phylogenetic tree. Due to the resources needed by the SIFTER algorithm, running SIFTER locally is not trivial for most users, especially for large-scale problems. The SIFTER web server thus provides access tomore » precomputed predictions on 16 863 537 proteins from 232 403 species. Users can explore SIFTER predictions with queries for proteins, species, functions, and homologs of sequences not in the precomputed prediction set. Lastly, the SIFTER web server is accessible at http://sifter.berkeley.edu/ and the source code can be downloaded.« less

  5. Accurate verification of the conserved-vector-current and standard-model predictions

    SciTech Connect

    Sirlin, A.; Zucchini, R.

    1986-10-20

    An approximate analytic calculation of O(Z..cap alpha../sup 2/) corrections to Fermi decays is presented. When the analysis of Koslowsky et al. is modified to take into account the new results, it is found that each of the eight accurately studied scrFt values differs from the average by approx. <1sigma, thus significantly improving the comparison of experiments with conserved-vector-current predictions. The new scrFt values are lower than before, which also brings experiments into very good agreement with the three-generation standard model, at the level of its quantum corrections.

  6. Special purpose hybrid transfinite elements and unified computational methodology for accurately predicting thermoelastic stress waves

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tamma, Kumar K.; Railkar, Sudhir B.

    1988-01-01

    This paper represents an attempt to apply extensions of a hybrid transfinite element computational approach for accurately predicting thermoelastic stress waves. The applicability of the present formulations for capturing the thermal stress waves induced by boundary heating for the well known Danilovskaya problems is demonstrated. A unique feature of the proposed formulations for applicability to the Danilovskaya problem of thermal stress waves in elastic solids lies in the hybrid nature of the unified formulations and the development of special purpose transfinite elements in conjunction with the classical Galerkin techniques and transformation concepts. Numerical test cases validate the applicability and superior capability to capture the thermal stress waves induced due to boundary heating.

  7. The MIDAS touch for Accurately Predicting the Stress-Strain Behavior of Tantalum

    SciTech Connect

    Jorgensen, S.

    2016-03-02

    Testing the behavior of metals in extreme environments is not always feasible, so material scientists use models to try and predict the behavior. To achieve accurate results it is necessary to use the appropriate model and material-specific parameters. This research evaluated the performance of six material models available in the MIDAS database [1] to determine at which temperatures and strain-rates they perform best, and to determine to which experimental data their parameters were optimized. Additionally, parameters were optimized for the Johnson-Cook model using experimental data from Lassila et al [2].

  8. Accurate prediction of human drug toxicity: a major challenge in drug development.

    PubMed

    Li, Albert P

    2004-11-01

    Over the past decades, a number of drugs have been withdrawn or have required special labeling due to adverse effects observed post-marketing. Species differences in drug toxicity in preclinical safety tests and the lack of sensitive biomarkers and nonrepresentative patient population in clinical trials are probable reasons for the failures in predicting human drug toxicity. It is proposed that toxicology should evolve from an empirical practice to an investigative discipline. Accurate prediction of human drug toxicity requires resources and time to be spent in clearly defining key toxic pathways and corresponding risk factors, which hopefully, will be compensated by the benefits of a lower percentage of clinical failure due to toxicity and a decreased frequency of market withdrawal due to unacceptable adverse drug effects.

  9. Accurate prediction of the response of freshwater fish to a mixture of estrogenic chemicals.

    PubMed

    Brian, Jayne V; Harris, Catherine A; Scholze, Martin; Backhaus, Thomas; Booy, Petra; Lamoree, Marja; Pojana, Giulio; Jonkers, Niels; Runnalls, Tamsin; Bonfà, Angela; Marcomini, Antonio; Sumpter, John P

    2005-06-01

    Existing environmental risk assessment procedures are limited in their ability to evaluate the combined effects of chemical mixtures. We investigated the implications of this by analyzing the combined effects of a multicomponent mixture of five estrogenic chemicals using vitellogenin induction in male fathead minnows as an end point. The mixture consisted of estradiol, ethynylestradiol, nonylphenol, octylphenol, and bisphenol A. We determined concentration-response curves for each of the chemicals individually. The chemicals were then combined at equipotent concentrations and the mixture tested using fixed-ratio design. The effects of the mixture were compared with those predicted by the model of concentration addition using biomathematical methods, which revealed that there was no deviation between the observed and predicted effects of the mixture. These findings demonstrate that estrogenic chemicals have the capacity to act together in an additive manner and that their combined effects can be accurately predicted by concentration addition. We also explored the potential for mixture effects at low concentrations by exposing the fish to each chemical at one-fifth of its median effective concentration (EC50). Individually, the chemicals did not induce a significant response, although their combined effects were consistent with the predictions of concentration addition. This demonstrates the potential for estrogenic chemicals to act additively at environmentally relevant concentrations. These findings highlight the potential for existing environmental risk assessment procedures to underestimate the hazard posed by mixtures of chemicals that act via a similar mode of action, thereby leading to erroneous conclusions of absence of risk.

  10. Accurate Prediction of the Response of Freshwater Fish to a Mixture of Estrogenic Chemicals

    PubMed Central

    Brian, Jayne V.; Harris, Catherine A.; Scholze, Martin; Backhaus, Thomas; Booy, Petra; Lamoree, Marja; Pojana, Giulio; Jonkers, Niels; Runnalls, Tamsin; Bonfà, Angela; Marcomini, Antonio; Sumpter, John P.

    2005-01-01

    Existing environmental risk assessment procedures are limited in their ability to evaluate the combined effects of chemical mixtures. We investigated the implications of this by analyzing the combined effects of a multicomponent mixture of five estrogenic chemicals using vitellogenin induction in male fathead minnows as an end point. The mixture consisted of estradiol, ethynylestradiol, nonylphenol, octylphenol, and bisphenol A. We determined concentration–response curves for each of the chemicals individually. The chemicals were then combined at equipotent concentrations and the mixture tested using fixed-ratio design. The effects of the mixture were compared with those predicted by the model of concentration addition using biomathematical methods, which revealed that there was no deviation between the observed and predicted effects of the mixture. These findings demonstrate that estrogenic chemicals have the capacity to act together in an additive manner and that their combined effects can be accurately predicted by concentration addition. We also explored the potential for mixture effects at low concentrations by exposing the fish to each chemical at one-fifth of its median effective concentration (EC50). Individually, the chemicals did not induce a significant response, although their combined effects were consistent with the predictions of concentration addition. This demonstrates the potential for estrogenic chemicals to act additively at environmentally relevant concentrations. These findings highlight the potential for existing environmental risk assessment procedures to underestimate the hazard posed by mixtures of chemicals that act via a similar mode of action, thereby leading to erroneous conclusions of absence of risk. PMID:15929895

  11. IDSite: An accurate approach to predict P450-mediated drug metabolism

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jianing; Schneebeli, Severin T.; Bylund, Joseph; Farid, Ramy; Friesner, Richard A.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate prediction of drug metabolism is crucial for drug design. Since a large majority of drugs metabolism involves P450 enzymes, we herein describe a computational approach, IDSite, to predict P450-mediated drug metabolism. To model induced-fit effects, IDSite samples the conformational space with flexible docking in Glide followed by two refinement stages using the Protein Local Optimization Program (PLOP). Sites of metabolism (SOMs) are predicted according to a physical-based score that evaluates the potential of atoms to react with the catalytic iron center. As a preliminary test, we present in this paper the prediction of hydroxylation and O-dealkylation sites mediated by CYP2D6 using two different models: a physical-based simulation model, and a modification of this model in which a small number of parameters are fit to a training set. Without fitting any parameters to experimental data, the Physical IDSite scoring recovers 83% of the experimental observations for 56 compounds with a very low false positive rate. With only 4 fitted parameters, the Fitted IDSite was trained with the subset of 36 compounds and successfully applied to the other 20 compounds, recovering 94% of the experimental observations with high sensitivity and specificity for both sets. PMID:22247702

  12. Combining transcription factor binding affinities with open-chromatin data for accurate gene expression prediction.

    PubMed

    Schmidt, Florian; Gasparoni, Nina; Gasparoni, Gilles; Gianmoena, Kathrin; Cadenas, Cristina; Polansky, Julia K; Ebert, Peter; Nordström, Karl; Barann, Matthias; Sinha, Anupam; Fröhler, Sebastian; Xiong, Jieyi; Dehghani Amirabad, Azim; Behjati Ardakani, Fatemeh; Hutter, Barbara; Zipprich, Gideon; Felder, Bärbel; Eils, Jürgen; Brors, Benedikt; Chen, Wei; Hengstler, Jan G; Hamann, Alf; Lengauer, Thomas; Rosenstiel, Philip; Walter, Jörn; Schulz, Marcel H

    2017-01-09

    The binding and contribution of transcription factors (TF) to cell specific gene expression is often deduced from open-chromatin measurements to avoid costly TF ChIP-seq assays. Thus, it is important to develop computational methods for accurate TF binding prediction in open-chromatin regions (OCRs). Here, we report a novel segmentation-based method, TEPIC, to predict TF binding by combining sets of OCRs with position weight matrices. TEPIC can be applied to various open-chromatin data, e.g. DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq. Additionally, Histone-Marks (HMs) can be used to identify candidate TF binding sites. TEPIC computes TF affinities and uses open-chromatin/HM signal intensity as quantitative measures of TF binding strength. Using machine learning, we find low affinity binding sites to improve our ability to explain gene expression variability compared to the standard presence/absence classification of binding sites. Further, we show that both footprints and peaks capture essential TF binding events and lead to a good prediction performance. In our application, gene-based scores computed by TEPIC with one open-chromatin assay nearly reach the quality of several TF ChIP-seq data sets. Finally, these scores correctly predict known transcriptional regulators as illustrated by the application to novel DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq data for primary human hepatocytes and CD4+ T-cells, respectively.

  13. Combining transcription factor binding affinities with open-chromatin data for accurate gene expression prediction

    PubMed Central

    Schmidt, Florian; Gasparoni, Nina; Gasparoni, Gilles; Gianmoena, Kathrin; Cadenas, Cristina; Polansky, Julia K.; Ebert, Peter; Nordström, Karl; Barann, Matthias; Sinha, Anupam; Fröhler, Sebastian; Xiong, Jieyi; Dehghani Amirabad, Azim; Behjati Ardakani, Fatemeh; Hutter, Barbara; Zipprich, Gideon; Felder, Bärbel; Eils, Jürgen; Brors, Benedikt; Chen, Wei; Hengstler, Jan G.; Hamann, Alf; Lengauer, Thomas; Rosenstiel, Philip; Walter, Jörn; Schulz, Marcel H.

    2017-01-01

    The binding and contribution of transcription factors (TF) to cell specific gene expression is often deduced from open-chromatin measurements to avoid costly TF ChIP-seq assays. Thus, it is important to develop computational methods for accurate TF binding prediction in open-chromatin regions (OCRs). Here, we report a novel segmentation-based method, TEPIC, to predict TF binding by combining sets of OCRs with position weight matrices. TEPIC can be applied to various open-chromatin data, e.g. DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq. Additionally, Histone-Marks (HMs) can be used to identify candidate TF binding sites. TEPIC computes TF affinities and uses open-chromatin/HM signal intensity as quantitative measures of TF binding strength. Using machine learning, we find low affinity binding sites to improve our ability to explain gene expression variability compared to the standard presence/absence classification of binding sites. Further, we show that both footprints and peaks capture essential TF binding events and lead to a good prediction performance. In our application, gene-based scores computed by TEPIC with one open-chromatin assay nearly reach the quality of several TF ChIP-seq data sets. Finally, these scores correctly predict known transcriptional regulators as illustrated by the application to novel DNaseI-seq and NOMe-seq data for primary human hepatocytes and CD4+ T-cells, respectively. PMID:27899623

  14. ILT based defect simulation of inspection images accurately predicts mask defect printability on wafer

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Deep, Prakash; Paninjath, Sankaranarayanan; Pereira, Mark; Buck, Peter

    2016-05-01

    At advanced technology nodes mask complexity has been increased because of large-scale use of resolution enhancement technologies (RET) which includes Optical Proximity Correction (OPC), Inverse Lithography Technology (ILT) and Source Mask Optimization (SMO). The number of defects detected during inspection of such mask increased drastically and differentiation of critical and non-critical defects are more challenging, complex and time consuming. Because of significant defectivity of EUVL masks and non-availability of actinic inspection, it is important and also challenging to predict the criticality of defects for printability on wafer. This is one of the significant barriers for the adoption of EUVL for semiconductor manufacturing. Techniques to decide criticality of defects from images captured using non actinic inspection images is desired till actinic inspection is not available. High resolution inspection of photomask images detects many defects which are used for process and mask qualification. Repairing all defects is not practical and probably not required, however it's imperative to know which defects are severe enough to impact wafer before repair. Additionally, wafer printability check is always desired after repairing a defect. AIMSTM review is the industry standard for this, however doing AIMSTM review for all defects is expensive and very time consuming. Fast, accurate and an economical mechanism is desired which can predict defect printability on wafer accurately and quickly from images captured using high resolution inspection machine. Predicting defect printability from such images is challenging due to the fact that the high resolution images do not correlate with actual mask contours. The challenge is increased due to use of different optical condition during inspection other than actual scanner condition, and defects found in such images do not have correlation with actual impact on wafer. Our automated defect simulation tool predicts

  15. Shrinking the Psoriasis Assessment Gap: Early Gene-Expression Profiling Accurately Predicts Response to Long-Term Treatment.

    PubMed

    Correa da Rosa, Joel; Kim, Jaehwan; Tian, Suyan; Tomalin, Lewis E; Krueger, James G; Suárez-Fariñas, Mayte

    2017-02-01

    There is an "assessment gap" between the moment a patient's response to treatment is biologically determined and when a response can actually be determined clinically. Patients' biochemical profiles are a major determinant of clinical outcome for a given treatment. It is therefore feasible that molecular-level patient information could be used to decrease the assessment gap. Thanks to clinically accessible biopsy samples, high-quality molecular data for psoriasis patients are widely available. Psoriasis is therefore an excellent disease for testing the prospect of predicting treatment outcome from molecular data. Our study shows that gene-expression profiles of psoriasis skin lesions, taken in the first 4 weeks of treatment, can be used to accurately predict (>80% area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) the clinical endpoint at 12 weeks. This could decrease the psoriasis assessment gap by 2 months. We present two distinct prediction modes: a universal predictor, aimed at forecasting the efficacy of untested drugs, and specific predictors aimed at forecasting clinical response to treatment with four specific drugs: etanercept, ustekinumab, adalimumab, and methotrexate. We also develop two forms of prediction: one from detailed, platform-specific data and one from platform-independent, pathway-based data. We show that key biomarkers are associated with responses to drugs and doses and thus provide insight into the biology of pathogenesis reversion.

  16. Accurate prediction of drug-induced liver injury using stem cell-derived populations.

    PubMed

    Szkolnicka, Dagmara; Farnworth, Sarah L; Lucendo-Villarin, Baltasar; Storck, Christopher; Zhou, Wenli; Iredale, John P; Flint, Oliver; Hay, David C

    2014-02-01

    Despite major progress in the knowledge and management of human liver injury, there are millions of people suffering from chronic liver disease. Currently, the only cure for end-stage liver disease is orthotopic liver transplantation; however, this approach is severely limited by organ donation. Alternative approaches to restoring liver function have therefore been pursued, including the use of somatic and stem cell populations. Although such approaches are essential in developing scalable treatments, there is also an imperative to develop predictive human systems that more effectively study and/or prevent the onset of liver disease and decompensated organ function. We used a renewable human stem cell resource, from defined genetic backgrounds, and drove them through developmental intermediates to yield highly active, drug-inducible, and predictive human hepatocyte populations. Most importantly, stem cell-derived hepatocytes displayed equivalence to primary adult hepatocytes, following incubation with known hepatotoxins. In summary, we have developed a serum-free, scalable, and shippable cell-based model that faithfully predicts the potential for human liver injury. Such a resource has direct application in human modeling and, in the future, could play an important role in developing renewable cell-based therapies.

  17. Accurate De Novo Prediction of Protein Contact Map by Ultra-Deep Learning Model

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zhen; Zhang, Renyu

    2017-01-01

    Motivation Protein contacts contain key information for the understanding of protein structure and function and thus, contact prediction from sequence is an important problem. Recently exciting progress has been made on this problem, but the predicted contacts for proteins without many sequence homologs is still of low quality and not very useful for de novo structure prediction. Method This paper presents a new deep learning method that predicts contacts by integrating both evolutionary coupling (EC) and sequence conservation information through an ultra-deep neural network formed by two deep residual neural networks. The first residual network conducts a series of 1-dimensional convolutional transformation of sequential features; the second residual network conducts a series of 2-dimensional convolutional transformation of pairwise information including output of the first residual network, EC information and pairwise potential. By using very deep residual networks, we can accurately model contact occurrence patterns and complex sequence-structure relationship and thus, obtain higher-quality contact prediction regardless of how many sequence homologs are available for proteins in question. Results Our method greatly outperforms existing methods and leads to much more accurate contact-assisted folding. Tested on 105 CASP11 targets, 76 past CAMEO hard targets, and 398 membrane proteins, the average top L long-range prediction accuracy obtained by our method, one representative EC method CCMpred and the CASP11 winner MetaPSICOV is 0.47, 0.21 and 0.30, respectively; the average top L/10 long-range accuracy of our method, CCMpred and MetaPSICOV is 0.77, 0.47 and 0.59, respectively. Ab initio folding using our predicted contacts as restraints but without any force fields can yield correct folds (i.e., TMscore>0.6) for 203 of the 579 test proteins, while that using MetaPSICOV- and CCMpred-predicted contacts can do so for only 79 and 62 of them, respectively. Our contact

  18. A hierarchical approach to accurate predictions of macroscopic thermodynamic behavior from quantum mechanics and molecular simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Garrison, Stephen L.

    2005-07-01

    The combination of molecular simulations and potentials obtained from quantum chemistry is shown to be able to provide reasonably accurate thermodynamic property predictions. Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo simulations are used to understand the effects of small perturbations to various regions of the model Lennard-Jones 12-6 potential. However, when the phase behavior and second virial coefficient are scaled by the critical properties calculated for each potential, the results obey a corresponding states relation suggesting a non-uniqueness problem for interaction potentials fit to experimental phase behavior. Several variations of a procedure collectively referred to as quantum mechanical Hybrid Methods for Interaction Energies (HM-IE) are developed and used to accurately estimate interaction energies from CCSD(T) calculations with a large basis set in a computationally efficient manner for the neon-neon, acetylene-acetylene, and nitrogen-benzene systems. Using these results and methods, an ab initio, pairwise-additive, site-site potential for acetylene is determined and then improved using results from molecular simulations using this initial potential. The initial simulation results also indicate that a limited range of energies important for accurate phase behavior predictions. Second virial coefficients calculated from the improved potential indicate that one set of experimental data in the literature is likely erroneous. This prescription is then applied to methanethiol. Difficulties in modeling the effects of the lone pair electrons suggest that charges on the lone pair sites negatively impact the ability of the intermolecular potential to describe certain orientations, but that the lone pair sites may be necessary to reasonably duplicate the interaction energies for several orientations. Two possible methods for incorporating the effects of three-body interactions into simulations within the pairwise-additivity formulation are also developed. A low density

  19. Predicted burden of venous disease.

    PubMed

    Onida, Sarah; Davies, Alun Huw

    2016-03-01

    Chronic venous disease is a common condition with clinical signs and symptoms ranging from spider veins, to varicose veins, to active venous ulceration. Both superficial and deep venous dysfunction may be implicated in the development of this disease. Socio-economic factors are shaping our population, with increasing age and body mass index resulting in significant pressure on healthcare systems worldwide. These risk factors also lead to an increased risk of developing superficial and/or deep venous insufficiency, increasing disease prevalence and morbidity. In this chapter, the authors review the current and future burden of chronic venous disease from an epidemiological, quality of life and economic perspective.

  20. Intermolecular potentials and the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shvab, I.; Sadus, Richard J.

    2013-11-01

    The ability of intermolecular potentials to correctly predict the thermodynamic properties of liquid water at a density of 0.998 g/cm3 for a wide range of temperatures (298-650 K) and pressures (0.1-700 MPa) is investigated. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for the pressure, thermal pressure coefficient, thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, and Joule-Thomson coefficient of liquid water using the non-polarizable SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials. The results are compared with both experiment data and results obtained from the ab initio-based Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine non-additive (MCYna) [J. Li, Z. Zhou, and R. J. Sadus, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 154509 (2007)] potential, which includes polarization contributions. The data clearly indicate that both the SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials are only in qualitative agreement with experiment, whereas the polarizable MCYna potential predicts some properties within experimental uncertainty. This highlights the importance of polarizability for the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water, particularly at temperatures beyond 298 K.

  1. Intermolecular potentials and the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water.

    PubMed

    Shvab, I; Sadus, Richard J

    2013-11-21

    The ability of intermolecular potentials to correctly predict the thermodynamic properties of liquid water at a density of 0.998 g∕cm(3) for a wide range of temperatures (298-650 K) and pressures (0.1-700 MPa) is investigated. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for the pressure, thermal pressure coefficient, thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, and Joule-Thomson coefficient of liquid water using the non-polarizable SPC∕E and TIP4P∕2005 potentials. The results are compared with both experiment data and results obtained from the ab initio-based Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine non-additive (MCYna) [J. Li, Z. Zhou, and R. J. Sadus, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 154509 (2007)] potential, which includes polarization contributions. The data clearly indicate that both the SPC∕E and TIP4P∕2005 potentials are only in qualitative agreement with experiment, whereas the polarizable MCYna potential predicts some properties within experimental uncertainty. This highlights the importance of polarizability for the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water, particularly at temperatures beyond 298 K.

  2. Intermolecular potentials and the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water

    SciTech Connect

    Shvab, I.; Sadus, Richard J.

    2013-11-21

    The ability of intermolecular potentials to correctly predict the thermodynamic properties of liquid water at a density of 0.998 g/cm{sup 3} for a wide range of temperatures (298–650 K) and pressures (0.1–700 MPa) is investigated. Molecular dynamics simulations are reported for the pressure, thermal pressure coefficient, thermal expansion coefficient, isothermal and adiabatic compressibilities, isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, and Joule-Thomson coefficient of liquid water using the non-polarizable SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials. The results are compared with both experiment data and results obtained from the ab initio-based Matsuoka-Clementi-Yoshimine non-additive (MCYna) [J. Li, Z. Zhou, and R. J. Sadus, J. Chem. Phys. 127, 154509 (2007)] potential, which includes polarization contributions. The data clearly indicate that both the SPC/E and TIP4P/2005 potentials are only in qualitative agreement with experiment, whereas the polarizable MCYna potential predicts some properties within experimental uncertainty. This highlights the importance of polarizability for the accurate prediction of the thermodynamic properties of water, particularly at temperatures beyond 298 K.

  3. Distance scaling method for accurate prediction of slowly varying magnetic fields in satellite missions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Zacharias, Panagiotis P.; Chatzineofytou, Elpida G.; Spantideas, Sotirios T.; Capsalis, Christos N.

    2016-07-01

    In the present work, the determination of the magnetic behavior of localized magnetic sources from near-field measurements is examined. The distance power law of the magnetic field fall-off is used in various cases to accurately predict the magnetic signature of an equipment under test (EUT) consisting of multiple alternating current (AC) magnetic sources. Therefore, parameters concerning the location of the observation points (magnetometers) are studied towards this scope. The results clearly show that these parameters are independent of the EUT's size and layout. Additionally, the techniques developed in the present study enable the placing of the magnetometers close to the EUT, thus achieving high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Finally, the proposed method is verified by real measurements, using a mobile phone as an EUT.

  4. A fast and accurate method to predict 2D and 3D aerodynamic boundary layer flows

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bijleveld, H. A.; Veldman, A. E. P.

    2014-12-01

    A quasi-simultaneous interaction method is applied to predict 2D and 3D aerodynamic flows. This method is suitable for offshore wind turbine design software as it is a very accurate and computationally reasonably cheap method. This study shows the results for a NACA 0012 airfoil. The two applied solvers converge to the experimental values when the grid is refined. We also show that in separation the eigenvalues remain positive thus avoiding the Goldstein singularity at separation. In 3D we show a flow over a dent in which separation occurs. A rotating flat plat is used to show the applicability of the method for rotating flows. The shown capabilities of the method indicate that the quasi-simultaneous interaction method is suitable for design methods for offshore wind turbine blades.

  5. Exchange-Hole Dipole Dispersion Model for Accurate Energy Ranking in Molecular Crystal Structure Prediction.

    PubMed

    Whittleton, Sarah R; Otero-de-la-Roza, A; Johnson, Erin R

    2017-02-14

    Accurate energy ranking is a key facet to the problem of first-principles crystal-structure prediction (CSP) of molecular crystals. This work presents a systematic assessment of B86bPBE-XDM, a semilocal density functional combined with the exchange-hole dipole moment (XDM) dispersion model, for energy ranking using 14 compounds from the first five CSP blind tests. Specifically, the set of crystals studied comprises 11 rigid, planar compounds and 3 co-crystals. The experimental structure was correctly identified as the lowest in lattice energy for 12 of the 14 total crystals. One of the exceptions is 4-hydroxythiophene-2-carbonitrile, for which the experimental structure was correctly identified once a quasi-harmonic estimate of the vibrational free-energy contribution was included, evidencing the occasional importance of thermal corrections for accurate energy ranking. The other exception is an organic salt, where charge-transfer error (also called delocalization error) is expected to cause the base density functional to be unreliable. Provided the choice of base density functional is appropriate and an estimate of temperature effects is used, XDM-corrected density-functional theory is highly reliable for the energetic ranking of competing crystal structures.

  6. Measuring solar reflectance Part I: Defining a metric that accurately predicts solar heat gain

    SciTech Connect

    Levinson, Ronnen; Akbari, Hashem; Berdahl, Paul

    2010-05-14

    Solar reflectance can vary with the spectral and angular distributions of incident sunlight, which in turn depend on surface orientation, solar position and atmospheric conditions. A widely used solar reflectance metric based on the ASTM Standard E891 beam-normal solar spectral irradiance underestimates the solar heat gain of a spectrally selective 'cool colored' surface because this irradiance contains a greater fraction of near-infrared light than typically found in ordinary (unconcentrated) global sunlight. At mainland U.S. latitudes, this metric RE891BN can underestimate the annual peak solar heat gain of a typical roof or pavement (slope {le} 5:12 [23{sup o}]) by as much as 89 W m{sup -2}, and underestimate its peak surface temperature by up to 5 K. Using R{sub E891BN} to characterize roofs in a building energy simulation can exaggerate the economic value N of annual cool-roof net energy savings by as much as 23%. We define clear-sky air mass one global horizontal ('AM1GH') solar reflectance R{sub g,0}, a simple and easily measured property that more accurately predicts solar heat gain. R{sub g,0} predicts the annual peak solar heat gain of a roof or pavement to within 2 W m{sup -2}, and overestimates N by no more than 3%. R{sub g,0} is well suited to rating the solar reflectances of roofs, pavements and walls. We show in Part II that R{sub g,0} can be easily and accurately measured with a pyranometer, a solar spectrophotometer or version 6 of the Solar Spectrum Reflectometer.

  7. Accurate prediction of wall shear stress in a stented artery: newtonian versus non-newtonian models.

    PubMed

    Mejia, Juan; Mongrain, Rosaire; Bertrand, Olivier F

    2011-07-01

    A significant amount of evidence linking wall shear stress to neointimal hyperplasia has been reported in the literature. As a result, numerical and experimental models have been created to study the influence of stent design on wall shear stress. Traditionally, blood has been assumed to behave as a Newtonian fluid, but recently that assumption has been challenged. The use of a linear model; however, can reduce computational cost, and allow the use of Newtonian fluids (e.g., glycerine and water) instead of a blood analog fluid in an experimental setup. Therefore, it is of interest whether a linear model can be used to accurately predict the wall shear stress caused by a non-Newtonian fluid such as blood within a stented arterial segment. The present work compares the resulting wall shear stress obtained using two linear and one nonlinear model under the same flow waveform. All numerical models are fully three-dimensional, transient, and incorporate a realistic stent geometry. It is shown that traditional linear models (based on blood's lowest viscosity limit, 3.5 Pa s) underestimate the wall shear stress within a stented arterial segment, which can lead to an overestimation of the risk of restenosis. The second linear model, which uses a characteristic viscosity (based on an average strain rate, 4.7 Pa s), results in higher wall shear stress levels, but which are still substantially below those of the nonlinear model. It is therefore shown that nonlinear models result in more accurate predictions of wall shear stress within a stented arterial segment.

  8. Point-of-care cardiac troponin test accurately predicts heat stroke severity in rats.

    PubMed

    Audet, Gerald N; Quinn, Carrie M; Leon, Lisa R

    2015-11-15

    Heat stroke (HS) remains a significant public health concern. Despite the substantial threat posed by HS, there is still no field or clinical test of HS severity. We suggested previously that circulating cardiac troponin (cTnI) could serve as a robust biomarker of HS severity after heating. In the present study, we hypothesized that (cTnI) point-of-care test (ctPOC) could be used to predict severity and organ damage at the onset of HS. Conscious male Fischer 344 rats (n = 16) continuously monitored for heart rate (HR), blood pressure (BP), and core temperature (Tc) (radiotelemetry) were heated to maximum Tc (Tc,Max) of 41.9 ± 0.1°C and recovered undisturbed for 24 h at an ambient temperature of 20°C. Blood samples were taken at Tc,Max and 24 h after heat via submandibular bleed and analyzed on ctPOC test. POC cTnI band intensity was ranked using a simple four-point scale via two blinded observers and compared with cTnI levels measured by a clinical blood analyzer. Blood was also analyzed for biomarkers of systemic organ damage. HS severity, as previously defined using HR, BP, and recovery Tc profile during heat exposure, correlated strongly with cTnI (R(2) = 0.69) at Tc,Max. POC cTnI band intensity ranking accurately predicted cTnI levels (R(2) = 0.64) and HS severity (R(2) = 0.83). Five markers of systemic organ damage also correlated with ctPOC score (albumin, alanine aminotransferase, blood urea nitrogen, cholesterol, and total bilirubin; R(2) > 0.4). This suggests that cTnI POC tests can accurately determine HS severity and could serve as simple, portable, cost-effective HS field tests.

  9. Highly Accurate Prediction of Protein-Protein Interactions via Incorporating Evolutionary Information and Physicochemical Characteristics

    PubMed Central

    Li, Zheng-Wei; You, Zhu-Hong; Chen, Xing; Gui, Jie; Nie, Ru

    2016-01-01

    Protein-protein interactions (PPIs) occur at almost all levels of cell functions and play crucial roles in various cellular processes. Thus, identification of PPIs is critical for deciphering the molecular mechanisms and further providing insight into biological processes. Although a variety of high-throughput experimental techniques have been developed to identify PPIs, existing PPI pairs by experimental approaches only cover a small fraction of the whole PPI networks, and further, those approaches hold inherent disadvantages, such as being time-consuming, expensive, and having high false positive rate. Therefore, it is urgent and imperative to develop automatic in silico approaches to predict PPIs efficiently and accurately. In this article, we propose a novel mixture of physicochemical and evolutionary-based feature extraction method for predicting PPIs using our newly developed discriminative vector machine (DVM) classifier. The improvements of the proposed method mainly consist in introducing an effective feature extraction method that can capture discriminative features from the evolutionary-based information and physicochemical characteristics, and then a powerful and robust DVM classifier is employed. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that DVM model is applied to the field of bioinformatics. When applying the proposed method to the Yeast and Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) datasets, we obtain excellent prediction accuracies of 94.35% and 90.61%, respectively. The computational results indicate that our method is effective and robust for predicting PPIs, and can be taken as a useful supplementary tool to the traditional experimental methods for future proteomics research. PMID:27571061

  10. Predicting brain network changes in Alzheimer's disease with link prediction algorithms.

    PubMed

    Sulaimany, Sadegh; Khansari, Mohammad; Zarrineh, Peyman; Daianu, Madelaine; Jahanshad, Neda; Thompson, Paul M; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali

    2017-03-28

    Link prediction is a promising research area for modeling various types of networks and has mainly focused on predicting missing links. Link prediction methods may be valuable for describing brain connectivity, as it changes in Alzheimer's disease (AD) and its precursor, mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Here, we analyzed 3-tesla whole-brain diffusion-weighted images from 202 participants in the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) - 50 healthy controls, 72 with earlyMCI (eMCI) and 38 with lateMCI (lMCI) and 42 AD patients. We introduce a novel approach for Mixed Link Prediction (MLP) to test and define the percent of predictability of each heightened stage of dementia from its previous, less impaired stage, in the simplest case. Using well-known link prediction algorithms as the core of MLP, we propose a new approach that predicts stages of cognitive impairment by simultaneously adding and removing links in the brain networks of elderly individuals. We found that the optimal algorithm, called "Adamic and Adar", had the best fit and most accurately predicted the stages of AD from their previous stage. When compared to the other link prediction algorithms, that mainly only predict the added links, our proposed approach can more inclusively simulate the brain changes during disease by both adding and removing links of the network. Our results are also in line with computational neuroimaging and clinical findings and can be improved for better results.

  11. A Simple and Accurate Model to Predict Responses to Multi-electrode Stimulation in the Retina.

    PubMed

    Maturana, Matias I; Apollo, Nicholas V; Hadjinicolaou, Alex E; Garrett, David J; Cloherty, Shaun L; Kameneva, Tatiana; Grayden, David B; Ibbotson, Michael R; Meffin, Hamish

    2016-04-01

    Implantable electrode arrays are widely used in therapeutic stimulation of the nervous system (e.g. cochlear, retinal, and cortical implants). Currently, most neural prostheses use serial stimulation (i.e. one electrode at a time) despite this severely limiting the repertoire of stimuli that can be applied. Methods to reliably predict the outcome of multi-electrode stimulation have not been available. Here, we demonstrate that a linear-nonlinear model accurately predicts neural responses to arbitrary patterns of stimulation using in vitro recordings from single retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) stimulated with a subretinal multi-electrode array. In the model, the stimulus is projected onto a low-dimensional subspace and then undergoes a nonlinear transformation to produce an estimate of spiking probability. The low-dimensional subspace is estimated using principal components analysis, which gives the neuron's electrical receptive field (ERF), i.e. the electrodes to which the neuron is most sensitive. Our model suggests that stimulation proportional to the ERF yields a higher efficacy given a fixed amount of power when compared to equal amplitude stimulation on up to three electrodes. We find that the model captures the responses of all the cells recorded in the study, suggesting that it will generalize to most cell types in the retina. The model is computationally efficient to evaluate and, therefore, appropriate for future real-time applications including stimulation strategies that make use of recorded neural activity to improve the stimulation strategy.

  12. A Simple and Accurate Model to Predict Responses to Multi-electrode Stimulation in the Retina

    PubMed Central

    Maturana, Matias I.; Apollo, Nicholas V.; Hadjinicolaou, Alex E.; Garrett, David J.; Cloherty, Shaun L.; Kameneva, Tatiana; Grayden, David B.; Ibbotson, Michael R.; Meffin, Hamish

    2016-01-01

    Implantable electrode arrays are widely used in therapeutic stimulation of the nervous system (e.g. cochlear, retinal, and cortical implants). Currently, most neural prostheses use serial stimulation (i.e. one electrode at a time) despite this severely limiting the repertoire of stimuli that can be applied. Methods to reliably predict the outcome of multi-electrode stimulation have not been available. Here, we demonstrate that a linear-nonlinear model accurately predicts neural responses to arbitrary patterns of stimulation using in vitro recordings from single retinal ganglion cells (RGCs) stimulated with a subretinal multi-electrode array. In the model, the stimulus is projected onto a low-dimensional subspace and then undergoes a nonlinear transformation to produce an estimate of spiking probability. The low-dimensional subspace is estimated using principal components analysis, which gives the neuron’s electrical receptive field (ERF), i.e. the electrodes to which the neuron is most sensitive. Our model suggests that stimulation proportional to the ERF yields a higher efficacy given a fixed amount of power when compared to equal amplitude stimulation on up to three electrodes. We find that the model captures the responses of all the cells recorded in the study, suggesting that it will generalize to most cell types in the retina. The model is computationally efficient to evaluate and, therefore, appropriate for future real-time applications including stimulation strategies that make use of recorded neural activity to improve the stimulation strategy. PMID:27035143

  13. Accurate load prediction by BEM with airfoil data from 3D RANS simulations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schneider, Marc S.; Nitzsche, Jens; Hennings, Holger

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, two methods for the extraction of airfoil coefficients from 3D CFD simulations of a wind turbine rotor are investigated, and these coefficients are used to improve the load prediction of a BEM code. The coefficients are extracted from a number of steady RANS simulations, using either averaging of velocities in annular sections, or an inverse BEM approach for determination of the induction factors in the rotor plane. It is shown that these 3D rotor polars are able to capture the rotational augmentation at the inner part of the blade as well as the load reduction by 3D effects close to the blade tip. They are used as input to a simple BEM code and the results of this BEM with 3D rotor polars are compared to the predictions of BEM with 2D airfoil coefficients plus common empirical corrections for stall delay and tip loss. While BEM with 2D airfoil coefficients produces a very different radial distribution of loads than the RANS simulation, the BEM with 3D rotor polars manages to reproduce the loads from RANS very accurately for a variety of load cases, as long as the blade pitch angle is not too different from the cases from which the polars were extracted.

  14. Accurate First-Principles Spectra Predictions for Planetological and Astrophysical Applications at Various T-Conditions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rey, M.; Nikitin, A. V.; Tyuterev, V.

    2014-06-01

    Knowledge of near infrared intensities of rovibrational transitions of polyatomic molecules is essential for the modeling of various planetary atmospheres, brown dwarfs and for other astrophysical applications 1,2,3. For example, to analyze exoplanets, atmospheric models have been developed, thus making the need to provide accurate spectroscopic data. Consequently, the spectral characterization of such planetary objects relies on the necessity of having adequate and reliable molecular data in extreme conditions (temperature, optical path length, pressure). On the other hand, in the modeling of astrophysical opacities, millions of lines are generally involved and the line-by-line extraction is clearly not feasible in laboratory measurements. It is thus suggested that this large amount of data could be interpreted only by reliable theoretical predictions. There exists essentially two theoretical approaches for the computation and prediction of spectra. The first one is based on empirically-fitted effective spectroscopic models. Another way for computing energies, line positions and intensities is based on global variational calculations using ab initio surfaces. They do not yet reach the spectroscopic accuracy stricto sensu but implicitly account for all intramolecular interactions including resonance couplings in a wide spectral range. The final aim of this work is to provide reliable predictions which could be quantitatively accurate with respect to the precision of available observations and as complete as possible. All this thus requires extensive first-principles quantum mechanical calculations essentially based on three necessary ingredients which are (i) accurate intramolecular potential energy surface and dipole moment surface components well-defined in a large range of vibrational displacements and (ii) efficient computational methods combined with suitable choices of coordinates to account for molecular symmetry properties and to achieve a good numerical

  15. Energy expenditure during level human walking: seeking a simple and accurate predictive solution.

    PubMed

    Ludlow, Lindsay W; Weyand, Peter G

    2016-03-01

    Accurate prediction of the metabolic energy that walking requires can inform numerous health, bodily status, and fitness outcomes. We adopted a two-step approach to identifying a concise, generalized equation for predicting level human walking metabolism. Using literature-aggregated values we compared 1) the predictive accuracy of three literature equations: American College of Sports Medicine (ACSM), Pandolf et al., and Height-Weight-Speed (HWS); and 2) the goodness-of-fit possible from one- vs. two-component descriptions of walking metabolism. Literature metabolic rate values (n = 127; speed range = 0.4 to 1.9 m/s) were aggregated from 25 subject populations (n = 5-42) whose means spanned a 1.8-fold range of heights and a 4.2-fold range of weights. Population-specific resting metabolic rates (V̇o2 rest) were determined using standardized equations. Our first finding was that the ACSM and Pandolf et al. equations underpredicted nearly all 127 literature-aggregated values. Consequently, their standard errors of estimate (SEE) were nearly four times greater than those of the HWS equation (4.51 and 4.39 vs. 1.13 ml O2·kg(-1)·min(-1), respectively). For our second comparison, empirical best-fit relationships for walking metabolism were derived from the data set in one- and two-component forms for three V̇o2-speed model types: linear (∝V(1.0)), exponential (∝V(2.0)), and exponential/height (∝V(2.0)/Ht). We found that the proportion of variance (R(2)) accounted for, when averaged across the three model types, was substantially lower for one- vs. two-component versions (0.63 ± 0.1 vs. 0.90 ± 0.03) and the predictive errors were nearly twice as great (SEE = 2.22 vs. 1.21 ml O2·kg(-1)·min(-1)). Our final analysis identified the following concise, generalized equation for predicting level human walking metabolism: V̇o2 total = V̇o2 rest + 3.85 + 5.97·V(2)/Ht (where V is measured in m/s, Ht in meters, and V̇o2 in ml O2·kg(-1)·min(-1)).

  16. Can radiation therapy treatment planning system accurately predict surface doses in postmastectomy radiation therapy patients?

    SciTech Connect

    Wong, Sharon; Back, Michael; Tan, Poh Wee; Lee, Khai Mun; Baggarley, Shaun; Lu, Jaide Jay

    2012-07-01

    Skin doses have been an important factor in the dose prescription for breast radiotherapy. Recent advances in radiotherapy treatment techniques, such as intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) and new treatment schemes such as hypofractionated breast therapy have made the precise determination of the surface dose necessary. Detailed information of the dose at various depths of the skin is also critical in designing new treatment strategies. The purpose of this work was to assess the accuracy of surface dose calculation by a clinically used treatment planning system and those measured by thermoluminescence dosimeters (TLDs) in a customized chest wall phantom. This study involved the construction of a chest wall phantom for skin dose assessment. Seven TLDs were distributed throughout each right chest wall phantom to give adequate representation of measured radiation doses. Point doses from the CMS Xio Registered-Sign treatment planning system (TPS) were calculated for each relevant TLD positions and results correlated. There were no significant difference between measured absorbed dose by TLD and calculated doses by the TPS (p > 0.05 (1-tailed). Dose accuracy of up to 2.21% was found. The deviations from the calculated absorbed doses were overall larger (3.4%) when wedges and bolus were used. 3D radiotherapy TPS is a useful and accurate tool to assess the accuracy of surface dose. Our studies have shown that radiation treatment accuracy expressed as a comparison between calculated doses (by TPS) and measured doses (by TLD dosimetry) can be accurately predicted for tangential treatment of the chest wall after mastectomy.

  17. Structure-based constitutive model can accurately predict planar biaxial properties of aortic wall tissue.

    PubMed

    Polzer, S; Gasser, T C; Novak, K; Man, V; Tichy, M; Skacel, P; Bursa, J

    2015-03-01

    Structure-based constitutive models might help in exploring mechanisms by which arterial wall histology is linked to wall mechanics. This study aims to validate a recently proposed structure-based constitutive model. Specifically, the model's ability to predict mechanical biaxial response of porcine aortic tissue with predefined collagen structure was tested. Histological slices from porcine thoracic aorta wall (n=9) were automatically processed to quantify the collagen fiber organization, and mechanical testing identified the non-linear properties of the wall samples (n=18) over a wide range of biaxial stretches. Histological and mechanical experimental data were used to identify the model parameters of a recently proposed multi-scale constitutive description for arterial layers. The model predictive capability was tested with respect to interpolation and extrapolation. Collagen in the media was predominantly aligned in circumferential direction (planar von Mises distribution with concentration parameter bM=1.03 ± 0.23), and its coherence decreased gradually from the luminal to the abluminal tissue layers (inner media, b=1.54 ± 0.40; outer media, b=0.72 ± 0.20). In contrast, the collagen in the adventitia was aligned almost isotropically (bA=0.27 ± 0.11), and no features, such as families of coherent fibers, were identified. The applied constitutive model captured the aorta biaxial properties accurately (coefficient of determination R(2)=0.95 ± 0.03) over the entire range of biaxial deformations and with physically meaningful model parameters. Good predictive properties, well outside the parameter identification space, were observed (R(2)=0.92 ± 0.04). Multi-scale constitutive models equipped with realistic micro-histological data can predict macroscopic non-linear aorta wall properties. Collagen largely defines already low strain properties of media, which explains the origin of wall anisotropy seen at this strain level. The structure and mechanical

  18. TIMP2•IGFBP7 biomarker panel accurately predicts acute kidney injury in high-risk surgical patients

    PubMed Central

    Gunnerson, Kyle J.; Shaw, Andrew D.; Chawla, Lakhmir S.; Bihorac, Azra; Al-Khafaji, Ali; Kashani, Kianoush; Lissauer, Matthew; Shi, Jing; Walker, Michael G.; Kellum, John A.

    2016-01-01

    BACKGROUND Acute kidney injury (AKI) is an important complication in surgical patients. Existing biomarkers and clinical prediction models underestimate the risk for developing AKI. We recently reported data from two trials of 728 and 408 critically ill adult patients in whom urinary TIMP2•IGFBP7 (NephroCheck, Astute Medical) was used to identify patients at risk of developing AKI. Here we report a preplanned analysis of surgical patients from both trials to assess whether urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase 2 (TIMP-2) and insulin-like growth factor–binding protein 7 (IGFBP7) accurately identify surgical patients at risk of developing AKI. STUDY DESIGN We enrolled adult surgical patients at risk for AKI who were admitted to one of 39 intensive care units across Europe and North America. The primary end point was moderate-severe AKI (equivalent to KDIGO [Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes] stages 2–3) within 12 hours of enrollment. Biomarker performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, integrated discrimination improvement, and category-free net reclassification improvement. RESULTS A total of 375 patients were included in the final analysis of whom 35 (9%) developed moderate-severe AKI within 12 hours. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for [TIMP-2]•[IGFBP7] alone was 0.84 (95% confidence interval, 0.76–0.90; p < 0.0001). Biomarker performance was robust in sensitivity analysis across predefined subgroups (urgency and type of surgery). CONCLUSION For postoperative surgical intensive care unit patients, a single urinary TIMP2•IGFBP7 test accurately identified patients at risk for developing AKI within the ensuing 12 hours and its inclusion in clinical risk prediction models significantly enhances their performance. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level I. PMID:26816218

  19. Predicting accurate fluorescent spectra for high molecular weight polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons using density functional theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Powell, Jacob; Heider, Emily C.; Campiglia, Andres; Harper, James K.

    2016-10-01

    The ability of density functional theory (DFT) methods to predict accurate fluorescence spectra for polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) is explored. Two methods, PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP, are evaluated both in the gas phase and in solution. Spectra for several of the most toxic PAHs are predicted and compared to experiment, including three isomers of C24H14 and a PAH containing heteroatoms. Unusually high-resolution experimental spectra are obtained for comparison by analyzing each PAH at 4.2 K in an n-alkane matrix. All theoretical spectra visually conform to the profiles of the experimental data but are systematically offset by a small amount. Specifically, when solvent is included the PBE0 functional overestimates peaks by 16.1 ± 6.6 nm while CAM-B3LYP underestimates the same transitions by 14.5 ± 7.6 nm. These calculated spectra can be empirically corrected to decrease the uncertainties to 6.5 ± 5.1 and 5.7 ± 5.1 nm for the PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP methods, respectively. A comparison of computed spectra in the gas phase indicates that the inclusion of n-octane shifts peaks by +11 nm on average and this change is roughly equivalent for PBE0 and CAM-B3LYP. An automated approach for comparing spectra is also described that minimizes residuals between a given theoretical spectrum and all available experimental spectra. This approach identifies the correct spectrum in all cases and excludes approximately 80% of the incorrect spectra, demonstrating that an automated search of theoretical libraries of spectra may eventually become feasible.

  20. Fast and Accurate Prediction of Numerical Relativity Waveforms from Binary Black Hole Coalescences Using Surrogate Models.

    PubMed

    Blackman, Jonathan; Field, Scott E; Galley, Chad R; Szilágyi, Béla; Scheel, Mark A; Tiglio, Manuel; Hemberger, Daniel A

    2015-09-18

    Simulating a binary black hole coalescence by solving Einstein's equations is computationally expensive, requiring days to months of supercomputing time. Using reduced order modeling techniques, we construct an accurate surrogate model, which is evaluated in a millisecond to a second, for numerical relativity (NR) waveforms from nonspinning binary black hole coalescences with mass ratios in [1, 10] and durations corresponding to about 15 orbits before merger. We assess the model's uncertainty and show that our modeling strategy predicts NR waveforms not used for the surrogate's training with errors nearly as small as the numerical error of the NR code. Our model includes all spherical-harmonic _{-2}Y_{ℓm} waveform modes resolved by the NR code up to ℓ=8. We compare our surrogate model to effective one body waveforms from 50M_{⊙} to 300M_{⊙} for advanced LIGO detectors and find that the surrogate is always more faithful (by at least an order of magnitude in most cases).

  1. A high order accurate finite element algorithm for high Reynolds number flow prediction

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Baker, A. J.

    1978-01-01

    A Galerkin-weighted residuals formulation is employed to establish an implicit finite element solution algorithm for generally nonlinear initial-boundary value problems. Solution accuracy, and convergence rate with discretization refinement, are quantized in several error norms, by a systematic study of numerical solutions to several nonlinear parabolic and a hyperbolic partial differential equation characteristic of the equations governing fluid flows. Solutions are generated using selective linear, quadratic and cubic basis functions. Richardson extrapolation is employed to generate a higher-order accurate solution to facilitate isolation of truncation error in all norms. Extension of the mathematical theory underlying accuracy and convergence concepts for linear elliptic equations is predicted for equations characteristic of laminar and turbulent fluid flows at nonmodest Reynolds number. The nondiagonal initial-value matrix structure introduced by the finite element theory is determined intrinsic to improved solution accuracy and convergence. A factored Jacobian iteration algorithm is derived and evaluated to yield a consequential reduction in both computer storage and execution CPU requirements while retaining solution accuracy.

  2. Cluster abundance in chameleon f(R) gravity I: toward an accurate halo mass function prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cataneo, Matteo; Rapetti, David; Lombriser, Lucas; Li, Baojiu

    2016-12-01

    We refine the mass and environment dependent spherical collapse model of chameleon f(R) gravity by calibrating a phenomenological correction inspired by the parameterized post-Friedmann framework against high-resolution N-body simulations. We employ our method to predict the corresponding modified halo mass function, and provide fitting formulas to calculate the enhancement of the f(R) halo abundance with respect to that of General Relativity (GR) within a precision of lesssim 5% from the results obtained in the simulations. Similar accuracy can be achieved for the full f(R) mass function on the condition that the modeling of the reference GR abundance of halos is accurate at the percent level. We use our fits to forecast constraints on the additional scalar degree of freedom of the theory, finding that upper bounds competitive with current Solar System tests are within reach of cluster number count analyses from ongoing and upcoming surveys at much larger scales. Importantly, the flexibility of our method allows also for this to be applied to other scalar-tensor theories characterized by a mass and environment dependent spherical collapse.

  3. Accurate prediction of band gaps and optical properties of HfO2

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ondračka, Pavel; Holec, David; Nečas, David; Zajíčková, Lenka

    2016-10-01

    We report on optical properties of various polymorphs of hafnia predicted within the framework of density functional theory. The full potential linearised augmented plane wave method was employed together with the Tran-Blaha modified Becke-Johnson potential (TB-mBJ) for exchange and local density approximation for correlation. Unit cells of monoclinic, cubic and tetragonal crystalline, and a simulated annealing-based model of amorphous hafnia were fully relaxed with respect to internal positions and lattice parameters. Electronic structures and band gaps for monoclinic, cubic, tetragonal and amorphous hafnia were calculated using three different TB-mBJ parametrisations and the results were critically compared with the available experimental and theoretical reports. Conceptual differences between a straightforward comparison of experimental measurements to a calculated band gap on the one hand and to a whole electronic structure (density of electronic states) on the other hand, were pointed out, suggesting the latter should be used whenever possible. Finally, dielectric functions were calculated at two levels, using the random phase approximation without local field effects and with a more accurate Bethe-Salpether equation (BSE) to account for excitonic effects. We conclude that a satisfactory agreement with experimental data for HfO2 was obtained only in the latter case.

  4. Accurate prediction of V1 location from cortical folds in a surface coordinate system

    PubMed Central

    Hinds, Oliver P.; Rajendran, Niranjini; Polimeni, Jonathan R.; Augustinack, Jean C.; Wiggins, Graham; Wald, Lawrence L.; Rosas, H. Diana; Potthast, Andreas; Schwartz, Eric L.; Fischl, Bruce

    2008-01-01

    Previous studies demonstrated substantial variability of the location of primary visual cortex (V1) in stereotaxic coordinates when linear volume-based registration is used to match volumetric image intensities (Amunts et al., 2000). However, other qualitative reports of V1 location (Smith, 1904; Stensaas et al., 1974; Rademacher et al., 1993) suggested a consistent relationship between V1 and the surrounding cortical folds. Here, the relationship between folds and the location of V1 is quantified using surface-based analysis to generate a probabilistic atlas of human V1. High-resolution (about 200 μm) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) at 7 T of ex vivo human cerebral hemispheres allowed identification of the full area via the stria of Gennari: a myeloarchitectonic feature specific to V1. Separate, whole-brain scans were acquired using MRI at 1.5 T to allow segmentation and mesh reconstruction of the cortical gray matter. For each individual, V1 was manually identified in the high-resolution volume and projected onto the cortical surface. Surface-based intersubject registration (Fischl et al., 1999b) was performed to align the primary cortical folds of individual hemispheres to those of a reference template representing the average folding pattern. An atlas of V1 location was constructed by computing the probability of V1 inclusion for each cortical location in the template space. This probabilistic atlas of V1 exhibits low prediction error compared to previous V1 probabilistic atlases built in volumetric coordinates. The increased predictability observed under surface-based registration suggests that the location of V1 is more accurately predicted by the cortical folds than by the shape of the brain embedded in the volume of the skull. In addition, the high quality of this atlas provides direct evidence that surface-based intersubject registration methods are superior to volume-based methods at superimposing functional areas of cortex, and therefore are better

  5. Raoult’s law revisited: accurately predicting equilibrium relative humidity points for humidity control experiments

    PubMed Central

    Bowler, Michael G.

    2017-01-01

    The humidity surrounding a sample is an important variable in scientific experiments. Biological samples in particular require not just a humid atmosphere but often a relative humidity (RH) that is in equilibrium with a stabilizing solution required to maintain the sample in the same state during measurements. The controlled dehydration of macromolecular crystals can lead to significant increases in crystal order, leading to higher diffraction quality. Devices that can accurately control the humidity surrounding crystals while monitoring diffraction have led to this technique being increasingly adopted, as the experiments become easier and more reproducible. Matching the RH to the mother liquor is the first step in allowing the stable mounting of a crystal. In previous work [Wheeler, Russi, Bowler & Bowler (2012). Acta Cryst. F68, 111–114], the equilibrium RHs were measured for a range of concentrations of the most commonly used precipitants in macromolecular crystallography and it was shown how these related to Raoult’s law for the equilibrium vapour pressure of water above a solution. However, a discrepancy between the measured values and those predicted by theory could not be explained. Here, a more precise humidity control device has been used to determine equilibrium RH points. The new results are in agreement with Raoult’s law. A simple argument in statistical mechanics is also presented, demonstrating that the equilibrium vapour pressure of a solvent is proportional to its mole fraction in an ideal solution: Raoult’s law. The same argument can be extended to the case where the solvent and solute molecules are of different sizes, as is the case with polymers. The results provide a framework for the correct maintenance of the RH surrounding a sample. PMID:28381983

  6. Raoult's law revisited: accurately predicting equilibrium relative humidity points for humidity control experiments.

    PubMed

    Bowler, Michael G; Bowler, David R; Bowler, Matthew W

    2017-04-01

    The humidity surrounding a sample is an important variable in scientific experiments. Biological samples in particular require not just a humid atmosphere but often a relative humidity (RH) that is in equilibrium with a stabilizing solution required to maintain the sample in the same state during measurements. The controlled dehydration of macromolecular crystals can lead to significant increases in crystal order, leading to higher diffraction quality. Devices that can accurately control the humidity surrounding crystals while monitoring diffraction have led to this technique being increasingly adopted, as the experiments become easier and more reproducible. Matching the RH to the mother liquor is the first step in allowing the stable mounting of a crystal. In previous work [Wheeler, Russi, Bowler & Bowler (2012). Acta Cryst. F68, 111-114], the equilibrium RHs were measured for a range of concentrations of the most commonly used precipitants in macromolecular crystallography and it was shown how these related to Raoult's law for the equilibrium vapour pressure of water above a solution. However, a discrepancy between the measured values and those predicted by theory could not be explained. Here, a more precise humidity control device has been used to determine equilibrium RH points. The new results are in agreement with Raoult's law. A simple argument in statistical mechanics is also presented, demonstrating that the equilibrium vapour pressure of a solvent is proportional to its mole fraction in an ideal solution: Raoult's law. The same argument can be extended to the case where the solvent and solute molecules are of different sizes, as is the case with polymers. The results provide a framework for the correct maintenance of the RH surrounding a sample.

  7. Simplified versus geometrically accurate models of forefoot anatomy to predict plantar pressures: A finite element study.

    PubMed

    Telfer, Scott; Erdemir, Ahmet; Woodburn, James; Cavanagh, Peter R

    2016-01-25

    Integration of patient-specific biomechanical measurements into the design of therapeutic footwear has been shown to improve clinical outcomes in patients with diabetic foot disease. The addition of numerical simulations intended to optimise intervention design may help to build on these advances, however at present the time and labour required to generate and run personalised models of foot anatomy restrict their routine clinical utility. In this study we developed second-generation personalised simple finite element (FE) models of the forefoot with varying geometric fidelities. Plantar pressure predictions from barefoot, shod, and shod with insole simulations using simplified models were compared to those obtained from CT-based FE models incorporating more detailed representations of bone and tissue geometry. A simplified model including representations of metatarsals based on simple geometric shapes, embedded within a contoured soft tissue block with outer geometry acquired from a 3D surface scan was found to provide pressure predictions closest to the more complex model, with mean differences of 13.3kPa (SD 13.4), 12.52kPa (SD 11.9) and 9.6kPa (SD 9.3) for barefoot, shod, and insole conditions respectively. The simplified model design could be produced in <1h compared to >3h in the case of the more detailed model, and solved on average 24% faster. FE models of the forefoot based on simplified geometric representations of the metatarsal bones and soft tissue surface geometry from 3D surface scans may potentially provide a simulation approach with improved clinical utility, however further validity testing around a range of therapeutic footwear types is required.

  8. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases.

    PubMed

    Christaki, Eirini

    2015-01-01

    Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats.

  9. New technologies in predicting, preventing and controlling emerging infectious diseases

    PubMed Central

    Christaki, Eirini

    2015-01-01

    Surveillance of emerging infectious diseases is vital for the early identification of public health threats. Emergence of novel infections is linked to human factors such as population density, travel and trade and ecological factors like climate change and agricultural practices. A wealth of new technologies is becoming increasingly available for the rapid molecular identification of pathogens but also for the more accurate monitoring of infectious disease activity. Web-based surveillance tools and epidemic intelligence methods, used by all major public health institutions, are intended to facilitate risk assessment and timely outbreak detection. In this review, we present new methods for regional and global infectious disease surveillance and advances in epidemic modeling aimed to predict and prevent future infectious diseases threats. PMID:26068569

  10. Risk Factor Fusion for Predicting Multifactorial Diseases

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2007-11-02

    validity of method is demonstrated by applying it to predict the occur- rence of gout in patients. 1. INTRODUCTION The goal in this paper is to...and parametric classifier design. In order to demonstrate the validity of the approach, the prediction of gout , which is a multifactorial disease...is considered. The goal is to classify a patient into one of two classes: gout or non- gout . The approach for gout classification is summarized in

  11. Predicting Parkinson's disease - why, when, and how?

    PubMed

    Postuma, R B; Montplaisir, J

    2009-12-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive disorder with a presymptomatic interval; that is, there is a period during which the pathologic process has begun, but motor signs required for the clinical diagnosis are absent. There is considerable interest in discovering markers to diagnose this preclinical stage. Current predictive marker development stems mainly from two principles; first, that pathologic processes occur in lower brainstem regions before substantia nigra involvement and second, that redundancy and compensatory responses cause symptoms to emerge only after advanced degeneration. Decreased olfaction has recently been demonstrated to predict PD in prospective pathologic studies, although the lead time may be relatively short and the positive predictive value and specificity are low. Screening patients for depression and personality changes, autonomic symptoms, subtle motor dysfunction on quantitative testing, sleepiness and insomnia are other potential simple markers. More invasive measures such as detailed autonomic testing, cardiac MIBG-scintigraphy, transcranial ultrasound, and dopaminergic functional imaging may be especially useful in those at high risk or for further defining risk in those identified through primary screening. Despite intriguing leads, direct testing of preclinical markers has been limited, mainly because there is no reliable way to identify preclinical disease. Idiopathic RBD is characterized by loss of normal atonia with REM sleep. Approximately 50% of affected individuals will develop PD or dementia within 10 years. This provides an unprecedented opportunity to test potential predictive markers before clinical disease onset. The results of marker testing in idiopathic RBD with its implications for disease prediction will be detailed.

  12. How Accurate Is the Prediction of Maximal Oxygen Uptake with Treadmill Testing?

    PubMed Central

    Wicks, John R.; Oldridge, Neil B.

    2016-01-01

    Background Cardiorespiratory fitness measured by treadmill testing has prognostic significance in determining mortality with cardiovascular and other chronic disease states. The accuracy of a recently developed method for estimating maximal oxygen uptake (VO2peak), the heart rate index (HRI), is dependent only on heart rate (HR) and was tested against oxygen uptake (VO2), either measured or predicted from conventional treadmill parameters (speed, incline, protocol time). Methods The HRI equation, METs = 6 x HRI– 5, where HRI = maximal HR/resting HR, provides a surrogate measure of VO2peak. Forty large scale treadmill studies were identified through a systematic search using MEDLINE, Google Scholar and Web of Science in which VO2peak was either measured (TM-VO2meas; n = 20) or predicted (TM-VO2pred; n = 20) based on treadmill parameters. All studies were required to have reported group mean data of both resting and maximal HRs for determination of HR index-derived oxygen uptake (HRI-VO2). Results The 20 studies with measured VO2 (TM-VO2meas), involved 11,477 participants (median 337) with a total of 105,044 participants (median 3,736) in the 20 studies with predicted VO2 (TM-VO2pred). A difference of only 0.4% was seen between mean (±SD) VO2peak for TM- VO2meas and HRI-VO2 (6.51±2.25 METs and 6.54±2.28, respectively; p = 0.84). In contrast, there was a highly significant 21.1% difference between mean (±SD) TM-VO2pred and HRI-VO2 (8.12±1.85 METs and 6.71±1.92, respectively; p<0.001). Conclusion Although mean TM-VO2meas and HRI-VO2 were almost identical, mean TM-VO2pred was more than 20% greater than mean HRI-VO2. PMID:27875547

  13. Accuracy Improvement for Predicting Parkinson's Disease Progression.

    PubMed

    Nilashi, Mehrbakhsh; Ibrahim, Othman; Ahani, Ali

    2016-09-30

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a member of a larger group of neuromotor diseases marked by the progressive death of dopamineproducing cells in the brain. Providing computational tools for Parkinson disease using a set of data that contains medical information is very desirable for alleviating the symptoms that can help the amount of people who want to discover the risk of disease at an early stage. This paper proposes a new hybrid intelligent system for the prediction of PD progression using noise removal, clustering and prediction methods. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Expectation Maximization (EM) are respectively employed to address the multi-collinearity problems in the experimental datasets and clustering the data. We then apply Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) for prediction of PD progression. Experimental results on public Parkinson's datasets show that the proposed method remarkably improves the accuracy of prediction of PD progression. The hybrid intelligent system can assist medical practitioners in the healthcare practice for early detection of Parkinson disease.

  14. Mutation databases for inherited renal disease: are they complete, accurate, clinically relevant, and freely available?

    PubMed

    Savige, Judy; Dagher, Hayat; Povey, Sue

    2014-07-01

    This study examined whether gene-specific DNA variant databases for inherited diseases of the kidney fulfilled the Human Variome Project recommendations of being complete, accurate, clinically relevant and freely available. A recent review identified 60 inherited renal diseases caused by mutations in 132 genes. The disease name, MIM number, gene name, together with "mutation" or "database," were used to identify web-based databases. Fifty-nine diseases (98%) due to mutations in 128 genes had a variant database. Altogether there were 349 databases (a median of 3 per gene, range 0-6), but no gene had two databases with the same number of variants, and 165 (50%) databases included fewer than 10 variants. About half the databases (180, 54%) had been updated in the previous year. Few (77, 23%) were curated by "experts" but these included nine of the 11 with the most variants. Even fewer databases (41, 12%) included clinical features apart from the name of the associated disease. Most (223, 67%) could be accessed without charge, including those for 50 genes (40%) with the maximum number of variants. Future efforts should focus on encouraging experts to collaborate on a single database for each gene affected in inherited renal disease, including both unpublished variants, and clinical phenotypes.

  15. An extended set of yeast-based functional assays accurately identifies human disease mutations

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Song; Yang, Fan; Tan, Guihong; Costanzo, Michael; Oughtred, Rose; Hirschman, Jodi; Theesfeld, Chandra L.; Bansal, Pritpal; Sahni, Nidhi; Yi, Song; Yu, Analyn; Tyagi, Tanya; Tie, Cathy; Hill, David E.; Vidal, Marc; Andrews, Brenda J.; Boone, Charles; Dolinski, Kara; Roth, Frederick P.

    2016-01-01

    We can now routinely identify coding variants within individual human genomes. A pressing challenge is to determine which variants disrupt the function of disease-associated genes. Both experimental and computational methods exist to predict pathogenicity of human genetic variation. However, a systematic performance comparison between them has been lacking. Therefore, we developed and exploited a panel of 26 yeast-based functional complementation assays to measure the impact of 179 variants (101 disease- and 78 non-disease-associated variants) from 22 human disease genes. Using the resulting reference standard, we show that experimental functional assays in a 1-billion-year diverged model organism can identify pathogenic alleles with significantly higher precision and specificity than current computational methods. PMID:26975778

  16. Accurate Quantification of Disease Markers in Human Serum Using Iron Oxide Nanoparticle-linked Immunosorbent Assay

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Linlin; Tong, Sheng; Zhou, Jun; Bao, Gang

    2016-01-01

    Accurate and reliable quantification of biomarkers in the blood is essential in disease screening and diagnosis. Here we describe an iron oxide nanoparticle (IONP)-linked immunosorbent assay (ILISA) for detecting biomolecules in human serum. Sandwich ILISA was optimized for the detection of four important serological markers, IgA, IgG, IgM, and C-reactive protein (CRP), and assessed with normal sera, simulated disease-state sera and the serum samples from patients infected with West Nile virus (WNV) or human herpes virus (HHV). Our study shows that using the detection assay formulated with 18.8 nm wüstite nanocrystals, ILISA can achieve sub-picomolar detection sensitivity, and all four markers can be accurately quantified over a large dynamic range. In addition, ILISA is not susceptible to variations in operating procedures and shows better linearity and higher stability compared with ELISA, which facilitates its integration into detection methods suitable for point of care. Our results demonstrate that ILISA is a simple and versatile nanoplatform for highly sensitive and reliable detection of serological biomarkers in biomedical research and clinical applications. PMID:27375784

  17. Towards more accurate wind and solar power prediction by improving NWP model physics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Steiner, Andrea; Köhler, Carmen; von Schumann, Jonas; Ritter, Bodo

    2014-05-01

    The growing importance and successive expansion of renewable energies raise new challenges for decision makers, economists, transmission system operators, scientists and many more. In this interdisciplinary field, the role of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) is to reduce the errors and provide an a priori estimate of remaining uncertainties associated with the large share of weather-dependent power sources. For this purpose it is essential to optimize NWP model forecasts with respect to those prognostic variables which are relevant for wind and solar power plants. An improved weather forecast serves as the basis for a sophisticated power forecasts. Consequently, a well-timed energy trading on the stock market, and electrical grid stability can be maintained. The German Weather Service (DWD) currently is involved with two projects concerning research in the field of renewable energy, namely ORKA*) and EWeLiNE**). Whereas the latter is in collaboration with the Fraunhofer Institute (IWES), the project ORKA is led by energy & meteo systems (emsys). Both cooperate with German transmission system operators. The goal of the projects is to improve wind and photovoltaic (PV) power forecasts by combining optimized NWP and enhanced power forecast models. In this context, the German Weather Service aims to improve its model system, including the ensemble forecasting system, by working on data assimilation, model physics and statistical post processing. This presentation is focused on the identification of critical weather situations and the associated errors in the German regional NWP model COSMO-DE. First steps leading to improved physical parameterization schemes within the NWP-model are presented. Wind mast measurements reaching up to 200 m height above ground are used for the estimation of the (NWP) wind forecast error at heights relevant for wind energy plants. One particular problem is the daily cycle in wind speed. The transition from stable stratification during

  18. A machine learning approach to the accurate prediction of multi-leaf collimator positional errors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carlson, Joel N. K.; Park, Jong Min; Park, So-Yeon; In Park, Jong; Choi, Yunseok; Ye, Sung-Joon

    2016-03-01

    Discrepancies between planned and delivered movements of multi-leaf collimators (MLCs) are an important source of errors in dose distributions during radiotherapy. In this work we used machine learning techniques to train models to predict these discrepancies, assessed the accuracy of the model predictions, and examined the impact these errors have on quality assurance (QA) procedures and dosimetry. Predictive leaf motion parameters for the models were calculated from the plan files, such as leaf position and velocity, whether the leaf was moving towards or away from the isocenter of the MLC, and many others. Differences in positions between synchronized DICOM-RT planning files and DynaLog files reported during QA delivery were used as a target response for training of the models. The final model is capable of predicting MLC positions during delivery to a high degree of accuracy. For moving MLC leaves, predicted positions were shown to be significantly closer to delivered positions than were planned positions. By incorporating predicted positions into dose calculations in the TPS, increases were shown in gamma passing rates against measured dose distributions recorded during QA delivery. For instance, head and neck plans with 1%/2 mm gamma criteria had an average increase in passing rate of 4.17% (SD  =  1.54%). This indicates that the inclusion of predictions during dose calculation leads to a more realistic representation of plan delivery. To assess impact on the patient, dose volumetric histograms (DVH) using delivered positions were calculated for comparison with planned and predicted DVHs. In all cases, predicted dose volumetric parameters were in closer agreement to the delivered parameters than were the planned parameters, particularly for organs at risk on the periphery of the treatment area. By incorporating the predicted positions into the TPS, the treatment planner is given a more realistic view of the dose distribution as it will truly be

  19. Classification and disease prediction via mathematical programming

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Eva K.; Wu, Tsung-Lin

    2007-11-01

    In this chapter, we present classification models based on mathematical programming approaches. We first provide an overview on various mathematical programming approaches, including linear programming, mixed integer programming, nonlinear programming and support vector machines. Next, we present our effort of novel optimization-based classification models that are general purpose and suitable for developing predictive rules for large heterogeneous biological and medical data sets. Our predictive model simultaneously incorporates (1) the ability to classify any number of distinct groups; (2) the ability to incorporate heterogeneous types of attributes as input; (3) a high-dimensional data transformation that eliminates noise and errors in biological data; (4) the ability to incorporate constraints to limit the rate of misclassification, and a reserved-judgment region that provides a safeguard against over-training (which tends to lead to high misclassification rates from the resulting predictive rule) and (5) successive multi-stage classification capability to handle data points placed in the reserved judgment region. To illustrate the power and flexibility of the classification model and solution engine, and its multigroup prediction capability, application of the predictive model to a broad class of biological and medical problems is described. Applications include: the differential diagnosis of the type of erythemato-squamous diseases; predicting presence/absence of heart disease; genomic analysis and prediction of aberrant CpG island meythlation in human cancer; discriminant analysis of motility and morphology data in human lung carcinoma; prediction of ultrasonic cell disruption for drug delivery; identification of tumor shape and volume in treatment of sarcoma; multistage discriminant analysis of biomarkers for prediction of early atherosclerois; fingerprinting of native and angiogenic microvascular networks for early diagnosis of diabetes, aging, macular

  20. An accurate and efficient method to predict the electronic excitation energies of BODIPY fluorescent dyes.

    PubMed

    Wang, Jia-Nan; Jin, Jun-Ling; Geng, Yun; Sun, Shi-Ling; Xu, Hong-Liang; Lu, Ying-Hua; Su, Zhong-Min

    2013-03-15

    Recently, the extreme learning machine neural network (ELMNN) as a valid computing method has been proposed to predict the nonlinear optical property successfully (Wang et al., J. Comput. Chem. 2012, 33, 231). In this work, first, we follow this line of work to predict the electronic excitation energies using the ELMNN method. Significantly, the root mean square deviation of the predicted electronic excitation energies of 90 4,4-difluoro-4-bora-3a,4a-diaza-s-indacene (BODIPY) derivatives between the predicted and experimental values has been reduced to 0.13 eV. Second, four groups of molecule descriptors are considered when building the computing models. The results show that the quantum chemical descriptions have the closest intrinsic relation with the electronic excitation energy values. Finally, a user-friendly web server (EEEBPre: Prediction of electronic excitation energies for BODIPY dyes), which is freely accessible to public at the web site: http://202.198.129.218, has been built for prediction. This web server can return the predicted electronic excitation energy values of BODIPY dyes that are high consistent with the experimental values. We hope that this web server would be helpful to theoretical and experimental chemists in related research.

  1. Disease prediction models and operational readiness.

    PubMed

    Corley, Courtney D; Pullum, Laura L; Hartley, David M; Benedum, Corey; Noonan, Christine; Rabinowitz, Peter M; Lancaster, Mary J

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4), spatial (26), ecological niche (28), diagnostic or clinical (6), spread or response (9), and reviews (3). The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural) and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological) were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V) methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology Readiness

  2. Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness

    PubMed Central

    Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey; Noonan, Christine; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. We define a disease event to be a biological event with focus on the One Health paradigm. These events are characterized by evidence of infection and or disease condition. We reviewed models that attempted to predict a disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics and we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). We searched commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models, using terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche modeling. After removal of duplications and extraneous material, a core collection of 6,524 items was established, and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers, and the results are presented in this analysis. We identified 44 models, classified as one or more of the following: event prediction (4), spatial (26), ecological niche (28), diagnostic or clinical (6), spread or response (9), and reviews (3). The model parameters (e.g., etiology, climatic, spatial, cultural) and data sources (e.g., remote sensing, non-governmental organizations, expert opinion, epidemiological) were recorded and reviewed. A component of this review is the identification of verification and validation (V&V) methods applied to each model, if any V&V method was reported. All models were classified as either having undergone Some Verification or Validation method, or No Verification or Validation. We close by outlining an initial set of operational readiness level guidelines for disease prediction models based upon established Technology Readiness

  3. Sensor data fusion for accurate cloud presence prediction using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory.

    PubMed

    Li, Jiaming; Luo, Suhuai; Jin, Jesse S

    2010-01-01

    Sensor data fusion technology can be used to best extract useful information from multiple sensor observations. It has been widely applied in various applications such as target tracking, surveillance, robot navigation, signal and image processing. This paper introduces a novel data fusion approach in a multiple radiation sensor environment using Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. The methodology is used to predict cloud presence based on the inputs of radiation sensors. Different radiation data have been used for the cloud prediction. The potential application areas of the algorithm include renewable power for virtual power station where the prediction of cloud presence is the most challenging issue for its photovoltaic output. The algorithm is validated by comparing the predicted cloud presence with the corresponding sunshine occurrence data that were recorded as the benchmark. Our experiments have indicated that comparing to the approaches using individual sensors, the proposed data fusion approach can increase correct rate of cloud prediction by ten percent, and decrease unknown rate of cloud prediction by twenty three percent.

  4. Structural imaging biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease: predicting disease progression.

    PubMed

    Eskildsen, Simon F; Coupé, Pierrick; Fonov, Vladimir S; Pruessner, Jens C; Collins, D Louis

    2015-01-01

    Optimized magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) may allow earlier detection and refined prediction of the disease. In addition, they could serve as valuable tools when designing therapeutic studies of individuals at risk of AD. In this study, we combine (1) a novel method for grading medial temporal lobe structures with (2) robust cortical thickness measurements to predict AD among subjects with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) from a single T1-weighted MRI scan. Using AD and cognitively normal individuals, we generate a set of features potentially discriminating between MCI subjects who convert to AD and those who remain stable over a period of 3 years. Using mutual information-based feature selection, we identify 5 key features optimizing the classification of MCI converters. These features are the left and right hippocampi gradings and cortical thicknesses of the left precuneus, left superior temporal sulcus, and right anterior part of the parahippocampal gyrus. We show that these features are highly stable in cross-validation and enable a prediction accuracy of 72% using a simple linear discriminant classifier, the highest prediction accuracy obtained on the baseline Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative first phase cohort to date. The proposed structural features are consistent with Braak stages and previously reported atrophic patterns in AD and are easy to transfer to new cohorts and to clinical practice.

  5. Toward accurate prediction of pKa values for internal protein residues: the importance of conformational relaxation and desolvation energy.

    PubMed

    Wallace, Jason A; Wang, Yuhang; Shi, Chuanyin; Pastoor, Kevin J; Nguyen, Bao-Linh; Xia, Kai; Shen, Jana K

    2011-12-01

    Proton uptake or release controls many important biological processes, such as energy transduction, virus replication, and catalysis. Accurate pK(a) prediction informs about proton pathways, thereby revealing detailed acid-base mechanisms. Physics-based methods in the framework of molecular dynamics simulations not only offer pK(a) predictions but also inform about the physical origins of pK(a) shifts and provide details of ionization-induced conformational relaxation and large-scale transitions. One such method is the recently developed continuous constant pH molecular dynamics (CPHMD) method, which has been shown to be an accurate and robust pK(a) prediction tool for naturally occurring titratable residues. To further examine the accuracy and limitations of CPHMD, we blindly predicted the pK(a) values for 87 titratable residues introduced in various hydrophobic regions of staphylococcal nuclease and variants. The predictions gave a root-mean-square deviation of 1.69 pK units from experiment, and there were only two pK(a)'s with errors greater than 3.5 pK units. Analysis of the conformational fluctuation of titrating side-chains in the context of the errors of calculated pK(a) values indicate that explicit treatment of conformational flexibility and the associated dielectric relaxation gives CPHMD a distinct advantage. Analysis of the sources of errors suggests that more accurate pK(a) predictions can be obtained for the most deeply buried residues by improving the accuracy in calculating desolvation energies. Furthermore, it is found that the generalized Born implicit-solvent model underlying the current CPHMD implementation slightly distorts the local conformational environment such that the inclusion of an explicit-solvent representation may offer improvement of accuracy.

  6. NESmapper: accurate prediction of leucine-rich nuclear export signals using activity-based profiles.

    PubMed

    Kosugi, Shunichi; Yanagawa, Hiroshi; Terauchi, Ryohei; Tabata, Satoshi

    2014-09-01

    The nuclear export of proteins is regulated largely through the exportin/CRM1 pathway, which involves the specific recognition of leucine-rich nuclear export signals (NESs) in the cargo proteins, and modulates nuclear-cytoplasmic protein shuttling by antagonizing the nuclear import activity mediated by importins and the nuclear import signal (NLS). Although the prediction of NESs can help to define proteins that undergo regulated nuclear export, current methods of predicting NESs, including computational tools and consensus-sequence-based searches, have limited accuracy, especially in terms of their specificity. We found that each residue within an NES largely contributes independently and additively to the entire nuclear export activity. We created activity-based profiles of all classes of NESs with a comprehensive mutational analysis in mammalian cells. The profiles highlight a number of specific activity-affecting residues not only at the conserved hydrophobic positions but also in the linker and flanking regions. We then developed a computational tool, NESmapper, to predict NESs by using profiles that had been further optimized by training and combining the amino acid properties of the NES-flanking regions. This tool successfully reduced the considerable number of false positives, and the overall prediction accuracy was higher than that of other methods, including NESsential and Wregex. This profile-based prediction strategy is a reliable way to identify functional protein motifs. NESmapper is available at http://sourceforge.net/projects/nesmapper.

  7. Multi-omics integration accurately predicts cellular state in unexplored conditions for Escherichia coli

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Minseung; Rai, Navneet; Zorraquino, Violeta; Tagkopoulos, Ilias

    2016-01-01

    A significant obstacle in training predictive cell models is the lack of integrated data sources. We develop semi-supervised normalization pipelines and perform experimental characterization (growth, transcriptional, proteome) to create Ecomics, a consistent, quality-controlled multi-omics compendium for Escherichia coli with cohesive meta-data information. We then use this resource to train a multi-scale model that integrates four omics layers to predict genome-wide concentrations and growth dynamics. The genetic and environmental ontology reconstructed from the omics data is substantially different and complementary to the genetic and chemical ontologies. The integration of different layers confers an incremental increase in the prediction performance, as does the information about the known gene regulatory and protein-protein interactions. The predictive performance of the model ranges from 0.54 to 0.87 for the various omics layers, which far exceeds various baselines. This work provides an integrative framework of omics-driven predictive modelling that is broadly applicable to guide biological discovery. PMID:27713404

  8. Empirical approaches to more accurately predict benthic-pelagic coupling in biogeochemical ocean models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dale, Andy; Stolpovsky, Konstantin; Wallmann, Klaus

    2016-04-01

    The recycling and burial of biogenic material in the sea floor plays a key role in the regulation of ocean chemistry. Proper consideration of these processes in ocean biogeochemical models is becoming increasingly recognized as an important step in model validation and prediction. However, the rate of organic matter remineralization in sediments and the benthic flux of redox-sensitive elements are difficult to predict a priori. In this communication, examples of empirical benthic flux models that can be coupled to earth system models to predict sediment-water exchange in the open ocean are presented. Large uncertainties hindering further progress in this field include knowledge of the reactivity of organic carbon reaching the sediment, the importance of episodic variability in bottom water chemistry and particle rain rates (for both the deep-sea and margins) and the role of benthic fauna. How do we meet the challenge?

  9. An endometrial gene expression signature accurately predicts recurrent implantation failure after IVF

    PubMed Central

    Koot, Yvonne E. M.; van Hooff, Sander R.; Boomsma, Carolien M.; van Leenen, Dik; Groot Koerkamp, Marian J. A.; Goddijn, Mariëtte; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Fauser, Bart C. J. M.; Holstege, Frank C. P.; Macklon, Nick S.

    2016-01-01

    The primary limiting factor for effective IVF treatment is successful embryo implantation. Recurrent implantation failure (RIF) is a condition whereby couples fail to achieve pregnancy despite consecutive embryo transfers. Here we describe the collection of gene expression profiles from mid-luteal phase endometrial biopsies (n = 115) from women experiencing RIF and healthy controls. Using a signature discovery set (n = 81) we identify a signature containing 303 genes predictive of RIF. Independent validation in 34 samples shows that the gene signature predicts RIF with 100% positive predictive value (PPV). The strength of the RIF associated expression signature also stratifies RIF patients into distinct groups with different subsequent implantation success rates. Exploration of the expression changes suggests that RIF is primarily associated with reduced cellular proliferation. The gene signature will be of value in counselling and guiding further treatment of women who fail to conceive upon IVF and suggests new avenues for developing intervention. PMID:26797113

  10. Accurate ab initio prediction of NMR chemical shifts of nucleic acids and nucleic acids/protein complexes

    PubMed Central

    Victora, Andrea; Möller, Heiko M.; Exner, Thomas E.

    2014-01-01

    NMR chemical shift predictions based on empirical methods are nowadays indispensable tools during resonance assignment and 3D structure calculation of proteins. However, owing to the very limited statistical data basis, such methods are still in their infancy in the field of nucleic acids, especially when non-canonical structures and nucleic acid complexes are considered. Here, we present an ab initio approach for predicting proton chemical shifts of arbitrary nucleic acid structures based on state-of-the-art fragment-based quantum chemical calculations. We tested our prediction method on a diverse set of nucleic acid structures including double-stranded DNA, hairpins, DNA/protein complexes and chemically-modified DNA. Overall, our quantum chemical calculations yield highly/very accurate predictions with mean absolute deviations of 0.3–0.6 ppm and correlation coefficients (r2) usually above 0.9. This will allow for identifying misassignments and validating 3D structures. Furthermore, our calculations reveal that chemical shifts of protons involved in hydrogen bonding are predicted significantly less accurately. This is in part caused by insufficient inclusion of solvation effects. However, it also points toward shortcomings of current force fields used for structure determination of nucleic acids. Our quantum chemical calculations could therefore provide input for force field optimization. PMID:25404135

  11. Dynamics of Flexible MLI-type Debris for Accurate Orbit Prediction

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-09-01

    SUBJECT TERMS EOARD, orbital debris , HAMR objects, multi-layered insulation, orbital dynamics, orbit predictions, orbital propagation 16. SECURITY...illustration are orbital debris [Souce: NASA...piece of space junk (a paint fleck) during the STS-7 mission (Photo: NASA Orbital Debris Program Office

  12. Predicting repeat self-harm in children--how accurate can we expect to be?

    PubMed

    Chitsabesan, Prathiba; Harrington, Richard; Harrington, Valerie; Tomenson, Barbara

    2003-01-01

    The main objective of the study was to find which variables predict repetition of deliberate self-harm in children. The study is based on a group of children who took part in a randomized control trial investigating the effects of a home-based family intervention for children who had deliberately poisoned themselves. These children had a range of baseline and outcome measures collected on two occasions (two and six months follow-up). Outcome data were collected from 149 (92 %) of the initial 162 children over the six months. Twenty-three children made a further deliberate self-harm attempt within the follow-up period. A number of variables at baseline were found to be significantly associated with repeat self-harm. Parental mental health and a history of previous attempts were the strongest predictors. A model of prediction of further deliberate self-harm combining these significant individual variables produced a high positive predictive value (86 %) but had low sensitivity (28 %). Predicting repeat self-harm in children is difficult, even with a comprehensive series of assessments over multiple time points, and we need to adapt services with this in mind. We propose a model of service provision which takes these findings into account.

  13. Disease Prediction Models and Operational Readiness

    SciTech Connect

    Corley, Courtney D.; Pullum, Laura L.; Hartley, David M.; Benedum, Corey M.; Noonan, Christine F.; Rabinowitz, Peter M.; Lancaster, Mary J.

    2014-03-19

    INTRODUCTION: The objective of this manuscript is to present a systematic review of biosurveillance models that operate on select agents and can forecast the occurrence of a disease event. One of the primary goals of this research was to characterize the viability of biosurveillance models to provide operationally relevant information for decision makers to identify areas for future research. Two critical characteristics differentiate this work from other infectious disease modeling reviews. First, we reviewed models that attempted to predict the disease event, not merely its transmission dynamics. Second, we considered models involving pathogens of concern as determined by the US National Select Agent Registry (as of June 2011). Methods: We searched dozens of commercial and government databases and harvested Google search results for eligible models utilizing terms and phrases provided by public health analysts relating to biosurveillance, remote sensing, risk assessments, spatial epidemiology, and ecological niche-modeling, The publication date of search results returned are bound by the dates of coverage of each database and the date in which the search was performed, however all searching was completed by December 31, 2010. This returned 13,767 webpages and 12,152 citations. After de-duplication and removal of extraneous material, a core collection of 6,503 items was established and these publications along with their abstracts are presented in a semantic wiki at http://BioCat.pnnl.gov. Next, PNNL’s IN-SPIRE visual analytics software was used to cross-correlate these publications with the definition for a biosurveillance model resulting in the selection of 54 documents that matched the criteria resulting Ten of these documents, However, dealt purely with disease spread models, inactivation of bacteria, or the modeling of human immune system responses to pathogens rather than predicting disease events. As a result, we systematically reviewed 44 papers and the

  14. Accurate prediction of the optical rotation and NMR properties for highly flexible chiral natural products.

    PubMed

    Hashmi, Muhammad Ali; Andreassend, Sarah K; Keyzers, Robert A; Lein, Matthias

    2016-09-21

    Despite advances in electronic structure theory the theoretical prediction of spectroscopic properties remains a computational challenge. This is especially true for natural products that exhibit very large conformational freedom and hence need to be sampled over many different accessible conformations. We report a strategy, which is able to predict NMR chemical shifts and more elusive properties like the optical rotation with great precision, through step-wise incremental increases of the conformational degrees of freedom. The application of this method is demonstrated for 3-epi-xestoaminol C, a chiral natural compound with a long, linear alkyl chain of 14 carbon atoms. Experimental NMR and [α]D values are reported to validate the results of the density functional theory calculations.

  15. FastRNABindR: Fast and Accurate Prediction of Protein-RNA Interface Residues.

    PubMed

    El-Manzalawy, Yasser; Abbas, Mostafa; Malluhi, Qutaibah; Honavar, Vasant

    2016-01-01

    A wide range of biological processes, including regulation of gene expression, protein synthesis, and replication and assembly of many viruses are mediated by RNA-protein interactions. However, experimental determination of the structures of protein-RNA complexes is expensive and technically challenging. Hence, a number of computational tools have been developed for predicting protein-RNA interfaces. Some of the state-of-the-art protein-RNA interface predictors rely on position-specific scoring matrix (PSSM)-based encoding of the protein sequences. The computational efforts needed for generating PSSMs severely limits the practical utility of protein-RNA interface prediction servers. In this work, we experiment with two approaches, random sampling and sequence similarity reduction, for extracting a representative reference database of protein sequences from more than 50 million protein sequences in UniRef100. Our results suggest that random sampled databases produce better PSSM profiles (in terms of the number of hits used to generate the profile and the distance of the generated profile to the corresponding profile generated using the entire UniRef100 data as well as the accuracy of the machine learning classifier trained using these profiles). Based on our results, we developed FastRNABindR, an improved version of RNABindR for predicting protein-RNA interface residues using PSSM profiles generated using 1% of the UniRef100 sequences sampled uniformly at random. To the best of our knowledge, FastRNABindR is the only protein-RNA interface residue prediction online server that requires generation of PSSM profiles for query sequences and accepts hundreds of protein sequences per submission. Our approach for determining the optimal BLAST database for a protein-RNA interface residue classification task has the potential of substantially speeding up, and hence increasing the practical utility of, other amino acid sequence based predictors of protein-protein and protein

  16. Robust and Accurate Modeling Approaches for Migraine Per-Patient Prediction from Ambulatory Data.

    PubMed

    Pagán, Josué; De Orbe, M Irene; Gago, Ana; Sobrado, Mónica; Risco-Martín, José L; Mora, J Vivancos; Moya, José M; Ayala, José L

    2015-06-30

    Migraine is one of the most wide-spread neurological disorders, and its medical treatment represents a high percentage of the costs of health systems. In some patients, characteristic symptoms that precede the headache appear. However, they are nonspecific, and their prediction horizon is unknown and pretty variable; hence, these symptoms are almost useless for prediction, and they are not useful to advance the intake of drugs to be effective and neutralize the pain. To solve this problem, this paper sets up a realistic monitoring scenario where hemodynamic variables from real patients are monitored in ambulatory conditions with a wireless body sensor network (WBSN). The acquired data are used to evaluate the predictive capabilities and robustness against noise and failures in sensors of several modeling approaches. The obtained results encourage the development of per-patient models based on state-space models (N4SID) that are capable of providing average forecast windows of 47 min and a low rate of false positives.

  17. Accurate structure prediction of peptide–MHC complexes for identifying highly immunogenic antigens

    SciTech Connect

    Park, Min-Sun; Park, Sung Yong; Miller, Keith R.; Collins, Edward J.; Lee, Ha Youn

    2013-11-01

    Designing an optimal HIV-1 vaccine faces the challenge of identifying antigens that induce a broad immune capacity. One factor to control the breadth of T cell responses is the surface morphology of a peptide–MHC complex. Here, we present an in silico protocol for predicting peptide–MHC structure. A robust signature of a conformational transition was identified during all-atom molecular dynamics, which results in a model with high accuracy. A large test set was used in constructing our protocol and we went another step further using a blind test with a wild-type peptide and two highly immunogenic mutants, which predicted substantial conformational changes in both mutants. The center residues at position five of the analogs were configured to be accessible to solvent, forming a prominent surface, while the residue of the wild-type peptide was to point laterally toward the side of the binding cleft. We then experimentally determined the structures of the blind test set, using high resolution of X-ray crystallography, which verified predicted conformational changes. Our observation strongly supports a positive association of the surface morphology of a peptide–MHC complex to its immunogenicity. Our study offers the prospect of enhancing immunogenicity of vaccines by identifying MHC binding immunogens.

  18. Fast and accurate numerical method for predicting gas chromatography retention time.

    PubMed

    Claumann, Carlos Alberto; Wüst Zibetti, André; Bolzan, Ariovaldo; Machado, Ricardo A F; Pinto, Leonel Teixeira

    2015-08-07

    Predictive modeling for gas chromatography compound retention depends on the retention factor (ki) and on the flow of the mobile phase. Thus, different approaches for determining an analyte ki in column chromatography have been developed. The main one is based on the thermodynamic properties of the component and on the characteristics of the stationary phase. These models can be used to estimate the parameters and to optimize the programming of temperatures, in gas chromatography, for the separation of compounds. Different authors have proposed the use of numerical methods for solving these models, but these methods demand greater computational time. Hence, a new method for solving the predictive modeling of analyte retention time is presented. This algorithm is an alternative to traditional methods because it transforms its attainments into root determination problems within defined intervals. The proposed approach allows for tr calculation, with accuracy determined by the user of the methods, and significant reductions in computational time; it can also be used to evaluate the performance of other prediction methods.

  19. Revisiting the blind tests in crystal structure prediction: accurate energy ranking of molecular crystals.

    PubMed

    Asmadi, Aldi; Neumann, Marcus A; Kendrick, John; Girard, Pascale; Perrin, Marc-Antoine; Leusen, Frank J J

    2009-12-24

    In the 2007 blind test of crystal structure prediction hosted by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC), a hybrid DFT/MM method correctly ranked each of the four experimental structures as having the lowest lattice energy of all the crystal structures predicted for each molecule. The work presented here further validates this hybrid method by optimizing the crystal structures (experimental and submitted) of the first three CCDC blind tests held in 1999, 2001, and 2004. Except for the crystal structures of compound IX, all structures were reminimized and ranked according to their lattice energies. The hybrid method computes the lattice energy of a crystal structure as the sum of the DFT total energy and a van der Waals (dispersion) energy correction. Considering all four blind tests, the crystal structure with the lowest lattice energy corresponds to the experimentally observed structure for 12 out of 14 molecules. Moreover, good geometrical agreement is observed between the structures determined by the hybrid method and those measured experimentally. In comparison with the correct submissions made by the blind test participants, all hybrid optimized crystal structures (apart from compound II) have the smallest calculated root mean squared deviations from the experimentally observed structures. It is predicted that a new polymorph of compound V exists under pressure.

  20. Robust and Accurate Modeling Approaches for Migraine Per-Patient Prediction from Ambulatory Data

    PubMed Central

    Pagán, Josué; Irene De Orbe, M.; Gago, Ana; Sobrado, Mónica; Risco-Martín, José L.; Vivancos Mora, J.; Moya, José M.; Ayala, José L.

    2015-01-01

    Migraine is one of the most wide-spread neurological disorders, and its medical treatment represents a high percentage of the costs of health systems. In some patients, characteristic symptoms that precede the headache appear. However, they are nonspecific, and their prediction horizon is unknown and pretty variable; hence, these symptoms are almost useless for prediction, and they are not useful to advance the intake of drugs to be effective and neutralize the pain. To solve this problem, this paper sets up a realistic monitoring scenario where hemodynamic variables from real patients are monitored in ambulatory conditions with a wireless body sensor network (WBSN). The acquired data are used to evaluate the predictive capabilities and robustness against noise and failures in sensors of several modeling approaches. The obtained results encourage the development of per-patient models based on state-space models (N4SID) that are capable of providing average forecast windows of 47 min and a low rate of false positives. PMID:26134103

  1. Prediction of disease course in inflammatory bowel diseases.

    PubMed

    Lakatos, Peter Laszlo

    2010-06-07

    Clinical presentation at diagnosis and disease course of both Crohn's disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis are heterogeneous and variable over time. Since most patients have a relapsing course and most CD patients develop complications (e.g. stricture and/or perforation), much emphasis has been placed in the recent years on the determination of important predictive factors. The identification of these factors may eventually lead to a more personalized, tailored therapy. In this TOPIC HIGHLIGHT series, we provide an update on the available literature regarding important clinical, endoscopic, fecal, serological/routine laboratory and genetic factors. Our aim is to assist clinicians in the everyday practical decision-making when choosing the treatment strategy for their patients suffering from inflammatory bowel diseases.

  2. Accurate prediction of cellular co-translational folding indicates proteins can switch from post- to co-translational folding

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nissley, Daniel A.; Sharma, Ajeet K.; Ahmed, Nabeel; Friedrich, Ulrike A.; Kramer, Günter; Bukau, Bernd; O'Brien, Edward P.

    2016-02-01

    The rates at which domains fold and codons are translated are important factors in determining whether a nascent protein will co-translationally fold and function or misfold and malfunction. Here we develop a chemical kinetic model that calculates a protein domain's co-translational folding curve during synthesis using only the domain's bulk folding and unfolding rates and codon translation rates. We show that this model accurately predicts the course of co-translational folding measured in vivo for four different protein molecules. We then make predictions for a number of different proteins in yeast and find that synonymous codon substitutions, which change translation-elongation rates, can switch some protein domains from folding post-translationally to folding co-translationally--a result consistent with previous experimental studies. Our approach explains essential features of co-translational folding curves and predicts how varying the translation rate at different codon positions along a transcript's coding sequence affects this self-assembly process.

  3. Predicting Outcomes to Optimize Disease Management in Inflammatory Bowel Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Torres, Joana; Caprioli, Flavio; Katsanos, Konstantinos H.; Lobatón, Triana; Micic, Dejan; Zerôncio, Marco; Van Assche, Gert; Lee, James C.; Lindsay, James O.; Rubin, David T.; Panaccione, Remo

    2016-01-01

    Background and Aims: Efforts to slow or prevent the progressive course of inflammatory bowel diseases [IBD] include early and intensive monitoring and treatment of patients at higher risk for complications. It is therefore essential to identify high-risk patients – both at diagnosis and throughout disease course. Methods: As a part of an IBD Ahead initiative, we conducted a comprehensive literature review to identify predictors of long-term IBD prognosis and generate draft expert summary statements. Statements were refined at national meetings of IBD experts in 32 countries and were finalized at an international meeting in November 2014. Results: Patients with Crohn’s disease presenting at a young age or with extensive anatomical involvement, deep ulcerations, ileal/ileocolonic involvement, perianal and/or severe rectal disease or penetrating/stenosing behaviour should be regarded as high risk for complications. Patients with ulcerative colitis presenting at young age, with extensive colitis and frequent flare-ups needing steroids or hospitalization present increased risk for colectomy or future hospitalization. Smoking status, concurrent primary sclerosing cholangitis and concurrent infections may impact the course of disease. Current genetic and serological markers lack accuracy for clinical use. Conclusions: Simple demographic and clinical features can guide the clinician in identifying patients at higher risk for disease complications at diagnosis and throughout disease course. However, many of these risk factors have been identified retrospectively and lack validation. Appropriately powered prospective studies are required to inform algorithms that can truly predict the risk for disease progression in the individual patient. PMID:27282402

  4. Can tritiated water-dilution space accurately predict total body water in chukar partridges

    SciTech Connect

    Crum, B.G.; Williams, J.B.; Nagy, K.A.

    1985-11-01

    Total body water (TBW) volumes determined from the dilution space of injected tritiated water have consistently overestimated actual water volumes (determined by desiccation to constant mass) in reptiles and mammals, but results for birds are controversial. We investigated potential errors in both the dilution method and the desiccation method in an attempt to resolve this controversy. Tritiated water dilution yielded an accurate measurement of water mass in vitro. However, in vivo, this method yielded a 4.6% overestimate of the amount of water (3.1% of live body mass) in chukar partridges, apparently largely because of loss of tritium from body water to sites of dissociable hydrogens on body solids. An additional source of overestimation (approximately 2% of body mass) was loss of tritium to the solids in blood samples during distillation of blood to obtain pure water for tritium analysis. Measuring tritium activity in plasma samples avoided this problem but required measurement of, and correction for, the dry matter content in plasma. Desiccation to constant mass by lyophilization or oven-drying also overestimated the amount of water actually in the bodies of chukar partridges by 1.4% of body mass, because these values included water adsorbed onto the outside of feathers. When desiccating defeathered carcasses, oven-drying at 70 degrees C yielded TBW values identical to those obtained from lyophilization, but TBW was overestimated (0.5% of body mass) by drying at 100 degrees C due to loss of organic substances as well as water.

  5. Does preoperative cross-sectional imaging accurately predict main duct involvement in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm?

    PubMed

    Barron, M R; Roch, A M; Waters, J A; Parikh, J A; DeWitt, J M; Al-Haddad, M A; Ceppa, E P; House, M G; Zyromski, N J; Nakeeb, A; Pitt, H A; Schmidt, C Max

    2014-03-01

    Main pancreatic duct (MPD) involvement is a well-demonstrated risk factor for malignancy in intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm (IPMN). Preoperative radiographic determination of IPMN type is heavily relied upon in oncologic risk stratification. We hypothesized that radiographic assessment of MPD involvement in IPMN is an accurate predictor of pathological MPD involvement. Data regarding all patients undergoing resection for IPMN at a single academic institution between 1992 and 2012 were gathered prospectively. Retrospective analysis of imaging and pathologic data was undertaken. Preoperative classification of IPMN type was based on cross-sectional imaging (MRI/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP) and/or CT). Three hundred sixty-two patients underwent resection for IPMN. Of these, 334 had complete data for analysis. Of 164 suspected branch duct (BD) IPMN, 34 (20.7%) demonstrated MPD involvement on final pathology. Of 170 patients with suspicion of MPD involvement, 50 (29.4%) demonstrated no MPD involvement. Of 34 patients with suspected BD-IPMN who were found to have MPD involvement on pathology, 10 (29.4%) had invasive carcinoma. Alternatively, 2/50 (4%) of the patients with suspected MPD involvement who ultimately had isolated BD-IPMN demonstrated invasive carcinoma. Preoperative radiographic IPMN type did not correlate with final pathology in 25% of the patients. In addition, risk of invasive carcinoma correlates with pathologic presence of MPD involvement.

  6. DisoMCS: Accurately Predicting Protein Intrinsically Disordered Regions Using a Multi-Class Conservative Score Approach

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Zhiheng; Yang, Qianqian; Li, Tonghua; Cong, Peisheng

    2015-01-01

    The precise prediction of protein intrinsically disordered regions, which play a crucial role in biological procedures, is a necessary prerequisite to further the understanding of the principles and mechanisms of protein function. Here, we propose a novel predictor, DisoMCS, which is a more accurate predictor of protein intrinsically disordered regions. The DisoMCS bases on an original multi-class conservative score (MCS) obtained by sequence-order/disorder alignment. Initially, near-disorder regions are defined on fragments located at both the terminus of an ordered region connecting a disordered region. Then the multi-class conservative score is generated by sequence alignment against a known structure database and represented as order, near-disorder and disorder conservative scores. The MCS of each amino acid has three elements: order, near-disorder and disorder profiles. Finally, the MCS is exploited as features to identify disordered regions in sequences. DisoMCS utilizes a non-redundant data set as the training set, MCS and predicted secondary structure as features, and a conditional random field as the classification algorithm. In predicted near-disorder regions a residue is determined as an order or a disorder according to the optimized decision threshold. DisoMCS was evaluated by cross-validation, large-scale prediction, independent tests and CASP (Critical Assessment of Techniques for Protein Structure Prediction) tests. All results confirmed that DisoMCS was very competitive in terms of accuracy of prediction when compared with well-established publicly available disordered region predictors. It also indicated our approach was more accurate when a query has higher homologous with the knowledge database. Availability The DisoMCS is available at http://cal.tongji.edu.cn/disorder/. PMID:26090958

  7. Size-extensivity-corrected multireference configuration interaction schemes to accurately predict bond dissociation energies of oxygenated hydrocarbons

    SciTech Connect

    Oyeyemi, Victor B.; Krisiloff, David B.; Keith, John A.; Libisch, Florian; Pavone, Michele; Carter, Emily A.

    2014-01-28

    Oxygenated hydrocarbons play important roles in combustion science as renewable fuels and additives, but many details about their combustion chemistry remain poorly understood. Although many methods exist for computing accurate electronic energies of molecules at equilibrium geometries, a consistent description of entire combustion reaction potential energy surfaces (PESs) requires multireference correlated wavefunction theories. Here we use bond dissociation energies (BDEs) as a foundational metric to benchmark methods based on multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) for several classes of oxygenated compounds (alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids, and methyl esters). We compare results from multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction to those utilizing a posteriori and a priori size-extensivity corrections, benchmarked against experiment and coupled cluster theory. We demonstrate that size-extensivity corrections are necessary for chemically accurate BDE predictions even in relatively small molecules and furnish examples of unphysical BDE predictions resulting from using too-small orbital active spaces. We also outline the specific challenges in using MRCI methods for carbonyl-containing compounds. The resulting complete basis set extrapolated, size-extensivity-corrected MRCI scheme produces BDEs generally accurate to within 1 kcal/mol, laying the foundation for this scheme's use on larger molecules and for more complex regions of combustion PESs.

  8. Size-extensivity-corrected multireference configuration interaction schemes to accurately predict bond dissociation energies of oxygenated hydrocarbons

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oyeyemi, Victor B.; Krisiloff, David B.; Keith, John A.; Libisch, Florian; Pavone, Michele; Carter, Emily A.

    2014-01-01

    Oxygenated hydrocarbons play important roles in combustion science as renewable fuels and additives, but many details about their combustion chemistry remain poorly understood. Although many methods exist for computing accurate electronic energies of molecules at equilibrium geometries, a consistent description of entire combustion reaction potential energy surfaces (PESs) requires multireference correlated wavefunction theories. Here we use bond dissociation energies (BDEs) as a foundational metric to benchmark methods based on multireference configuration interaction (MRCI) for several classes of oxygenated compounds (alcohols, aldehydes, carboxylic acids, and methyl esters). We compare results from multireference singles and doubles configuration interaction to those utilizing a posteriori and a priori size-extensivity corrections, benchmarked against experiment and coupled cluster theory. We demonstrate that size-extensivity corrections are necessary for chemically accurate BDE predictions even in relatively small molecules and furnish examples of unphysical BDE predictions resulting from using too-small orbital active spaces. We also outline the specific challenges in using MRCI methods for carbonyl-containing compounds. The resulting complete basis set extrapolated, size-extensivity-corrected MRCI scheme produces BDEs generally accurate to within 1 kcal/mol, laying the foundation for this scheme's use on larger molecules and for more complex regions of combustion PESs.

  9. Computational methods toward accurate RNA structure prediction using coarse-grained and all-atom models.

    PubMed

    Krokhotin, Andrey; Dokholyan, Nikolay V

    2015-01-01

    Computational methods can provide significant insights into RNA structure and dynamics, bridging the gap in our understanding of the relationship between structure and biological function. Simulations enrich and enhance our understanding of data derived on the bench, as well as provide feasible alternatives to costly or technically challenging experiments. Coarse-grained computational models of RNA are especially important in this regard, as they allow analysis of events occurring in timescales relevant to RNA biological function, which are inaccessible through experimental methods alone. We have developed a three-bead coarse-grained model of RNA for discrete molecular dynamics simulations. This model is efficient in de novo prediction of short RNA tertiary structure, starting from RNA primary sequences of less than 50 nucleotides. To complement this model, we have incorporated additional base-pairing constraints and have developed a bias potential reliant on data obtained from hydroxyl probing experiments that guide RNA folding to its correct state. By introducing experimentally derived constraints to our computer simulations, we are able to make reliable predictions of RNA tertiary structures up to a few hundred nucleotides. Our refined model exemplifies a valuable benefit achieved through integration of computation and experimental methods.

  10. Neural network and SVM classifiers accurately predict lipid binding proteins, irrespective of sequence homology.

    PubMed

    Bakhtiarizadeh, Mohammad Reza; Moradi-Shahrbabak, Mohammad; Ebrahimi, Mansour; Ebrahimie, Esmaeil

    2014-09-07

    Due to the central roles of lipid binding proteins (LBPs) in many biological processes, sequence based identification of LBPs is of great interest. The major challenge is that LBPs are diverse in sequence, structure, and function which results in low accuracy of sequence homology based methods. Therefore, there is a need for developing alternative functional prediction methods irrespective of sequence similarity. To identify LBPs from non-LBPs, the performances of support vector machine (SVM) and neural network were compared in this study. Comprehensive protein features and various techniques were employed to create datasets. Five-fold cross-validation (CV) and independent evaluation (IE) tests were used to assess the validity of the two methods. The results indicated that SVM outperforms neural network. SVM achieved 89.28% (CV) and 89.55% (IE) overall accuracy in identification of LBPs from non-LBPs and 92.06% (CV) and 92.90% (IE) (in average) for classification of different LBPs classes. Increasing the number and the range of extracted protein features as well as optimization of the SVM parameters significantly increased the efficiency of LBPs class prediction in comparison to the only previous report in this field. Altogether, the results showed that the SVM algorithm can be run on broad, computationally calculated protein features and offers a promising tool in detection of LBPs classes. The proposed approach has the potential to integrate and improve the common sequence alignment based methods.

  11. Accurate Prediction of the Dynamical Changes within the Second PDZ Domain of PTP1e

    PubMed Central

    Cilia, Elisa; Vuister, Geerten W.; Lenaerts, Tom

    2012-01-01

    Experimental NMR relaxation studies have shown that peptide binding induces dynamical changes at the side-chain level throughout the second PDZ domain of PTP1e, identifying as such the collection of residues involved in long-range communication. Even though different computational approaches have identified subsets of residues that were qualitatively comparable, no quantitative analysis of the accuracy of these predictions was thus far determined. Here, we show that our information theoretical method produces quantitatively better results with respect to the experimental data than some of these earlier methods. Moreover, it provides a global network perspective on the effect experienced by the different residues involved in the process. We also show that these predictions are consistent within both the human and mouse variants of this domain. Together, these results improve the understanding of intra-protein communication and allostery in PDZ domains, underlining at the same time the necessity of producing similar data sets for further validation of thses kinds of methods. PMID:23209399

  12. Prognostic breast cancer signature identified from 3D culture model accurately predicts clinical outcome across independent datasets

    SciTech Connect

    Martin, Katherine J.; Patrick, Denis R.; Bissell, Mina J.; Fournier, Marcia V.

    2008-10-20

    One of the major tenets in breast cancer research is that early detection is vital for patient survival by increasing treatment options. To that end, we have previously used a novel unsupervised approach to identify a set of genes whose expression predicts prognosis of breast cancer patients. The predictive genes were selected in a well-defined three dimensional (3D) cell culture model of non-malignant human mammary epithelial cell morphogenesis as down-regulated during breast epithelial cell acinar formation and cell cycle arrest. Here we examine the ability of this gene signature (3D-signature) to predict prognosis in three independent breast cancer microarray datasets having 295, 286, and 118 samples, respectively. Our results show that the 3D-signature accurately predicts prognosis in three unrelated patient datasets. At 10 years, the probability of positive outcome was 52, 51, and 47 percent in the group with a poor-prognosis signature and 91, 75, and 71 percent in the group with a good-prognosis signature for the three datasets, respectively (Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, p<0.05). Hazard ratios for poor outcome were 5.5 (95% CI 3.0 to 12.2, p<0.0001), 2.4 (95% CI 1.6 to 3.6, p<0.0001) and 1.9 (95% CI 1.1 to 3.2, p = 0.016) and remained significant for the two larger datasets when corrected for estrogen receptor (ER) status. Hence the 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome in both ER-positive and ER-negative tumors, though individual genes differed in their prognostic ability in the two subtypes. Genes that were prognostic in ER+ patients are AURKA, CEP55, RRM2, EPHA2, FGFBP1, and VRK1, while genes prognostic in ER patients include ACTB, FOXM1 and SERPINE2 (Kaplan-Meier p<0.05). Multivariable Cox regression analysis in the largest dataset showed that the 3D-signature was a strong independent factor in predicting breast cancer outcome. The 3D-signature accurately predicts breast cancer outcome across multiple datasets and holds prognostic

  13. Combining multiple regression and principal component analysis for accurate predictions for column ozone in Peninsular Malaysia

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rajab, Jasim M.; MatJafri, M. Z.; Lim, H. S.

    2013-06-01

    This study encompasses columnar ozone modelling in the peninsular Malaysia. Data of eight atmospheric parameters [air surface temperature (AST), carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4), water vapour (H2Ovapour), skin surface temperature (SSKT), atmosphere temperature (AT), relative humidity (RH), and mean surface pressure (MSP)] data set, retrieved from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), for the entire period (2003-2008) was employed to develop models to predict the value of columnar ozone (O3) in study area. The combined method, which is based on using both multiple regressions combined with principal component analysis (PCA) modelling, was used to predict columnar ozone. This combined approach was utilized to improve the prediction accuracy of columnar ozone. Separate analysis was carried out for north east monsoon (NEM) and south west monsoon (SWM) seasons. The O3 was negatively correlated with CH4, H2Ovapour, RH, and MSP, whereas it was positively correlated with CO, AST, SSKT, and AT during both the NEM and SWM season periods. Multiple regression analysis was used to fit the columnar ozone data using the atmospheric parameter's variables as predictors. A variable selection method based on high loading of varimax rotated principal components was used to acquire subsets of the predictor variables to be comprised in the linear regression model of the atmospheric parameter's variables. It was found that the increase in columnar O3 value is associated with an increase in the values of AST, SSKT, AT, and CO and with a drop in the levels of CH4, H2Ovapour, RH, and MSP. The result of fitting the best models for the columnar O3 value using eight of the independent variables gave about the same values of the R (≈0.93) and R2 (≈0.86) for both the NEM and SWM seasons. The common variables that appeared in both regression equations were SSKT, CH4 and RH, and the principal precursor of the columnar O3 value in both the NEM and SWM seasons was SSKT.

  14. A Foundation for the Accurate Prediction of the Soft Error Vulnerability of Scientific Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Bronevetsky, G; de Supinski, B; Schulz, M

    2009-02-13

    Understanding the soft error vulnerability of supercomputer applications is critical as these systems are using ever larger numbers of devices that have decreasing feature sizes and, thus, increasing frequency of soft errors. As many large scale parallel scientific applications use BLAS and LAPACK linear algebra routines, the soft error vulnerability of these methods constitutes a large fraction of the applications overall vulnerability. This paper analyzes the vulnerability of these routines to soft errors by characterizing how their outputs are affected by injected errors and by evaluating several techniques for predicting how errors propagate from the input to the output of each routine. The resulting error profiles can be used to understand the fault vulnerability of full applications that use these routines.

  15. Fast and Accurate Accessible Surface Area Prediction Without a Sequence Profile.

    PubMed

    Faraggi, Eshel; Kouza, Maksim; Zhou, Yaoqi; Kloczkowski, Andrzej

    2017-01-01

    A fast accessible surface area (ASA) predictor is presented. In this new approach no residue mutation profiles generated by multiple sequence alignments are used as inputs. Instead, we use only single sequence information and global features such as single-residue and two-residue compositions of the chain. The resulting predictor is both highly more efficient than sequence alignment based predictors and of comparable accuracy to them. Introduction of the global inputs significantly helps achieve this comparable accuracy. The predictor, termed ASAquick, is found to perform similarly well for so-called easy and hard cases indicating generalizability and possible usability for de-novo protein structure prediction. The source code and a Linux executables for ASAquick are available from Research and Information Systems at http://mamiris.com and from the Battelle Center for Mathematical Medicine at http://mathmed.org .

  16. Sequence features accurately predict genome-wide MeCP2 binding in vivo

    PubMed Central

    Rube, H. Tomas; Lee, Wooje; Hejna, Miroslav; Chen, Huaiyang; Yasui, Dag H.; Hess, John F.; LaSalle, Janine M.; Song, Jun S.; Gong, Qizhi

    2016-01-01

    Methyl-CpG binding protein 2 (MeCP2) is critical for proper brain development and expressed at near-histone levels in neurons, but the mechanism of its genomic localization remains poorly understood. Using high-resolution MeCP2-binding data, we show that DNA sequence features alone can predict binding with 88% accuracy. Integrating MeCP2 binding and DNA methylation in a probabilistic graphical model, we demonstrate that previously reported genome-wide association with methylation is in part due to MeCP2's affinity to GC-rich chromatin, a result replicated using published data. Furthermore, MeCP2 co-localizes with nucleosomes. Finally, MeCP2 binding downstream of promoters correlates with increased expression in Mecp2-deficient neurons. PMID:27008915

  17. Open lung biopsy: a safe, reliable and accurate method for diagnosis in diffuse lung disease.

    PubMed

    Shah, S S; Tsang, V; Goldstraw, P

    1992-01-01

    The ideal method for obtaining lung tissue for diagnosis should provide high diagnostic yield with low morbidity and mortality. We reviewed all 432 patients (mean age 55 years) who underwent an open lung biopsy at this hospital over a 10-year period. Twenty-four patients (5.5%) were immunocompromised. One hundred and twenty-five patients were on steroid therapy at the time of operation. Open lung biopsy provided a firm diagnosis in 410 cases overall (94.9%) and in 20 out of 24 patients in the immunocompromised group (83.3%). The commonest diagnosis was cryptogenic fibrosing alveolitis (173 patients). Twenty-two patients (5.1%) suffered complications following the procedure: wound infection 11 patients, pneumothorax 9 patients and haemothorax 1 patient. Thirteen patients (3.0%) died following open lung biopsy, but in only 1 patient was the death attributable to the procedure itself. We conclude that open lung biopsy is an accurate and safe method for establishing a diagnosis in diffuse lung disease with a high yield and minimal risk.

  18. Development of a method to accurately calculate the Dpb and quickly predict the strength of a chemical bond

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Du, Xia; Zhao, Dong-Xia; Yang, Zhong-Zhi

    2013-02-01

    A new approach to characterize and measure bond strength has been developed. First, we propose a method to accurately calculate the potential acting on an electron in a molecule (PAEM) at the saddle point along a chemical bond in situ, denoted by Dpb. Then, a direct method to quickly evaluate bond strength is established. We choose some familiar molecules as models for benchmarking this method. As a practical application, the Dpb of base pairs in DNA along C-H and N-H bonds are obtained for the first time. All results show that C7-H of A-T and C8-H of G-C are the relatively weak bonds that are the injured positions in DNA damage. The significance of this work is twofold: (i) A method is developed to calculate Dpb of various sizable molecules in situ quickly and accurately; (ii) This work demonstrates the feasibility to quickly predict the bond strength in macromolecules.

  19. Fast and accurate prediction for aerodynamic forces and moments acting on satellites flying in Low-Earth Orbit

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jin, Xuhon; Huang, Fei; Hu, Pengju; Cheng, Xiaoli

    2016-11-01

    A fundamental prerequisite for satellites operating in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) is the availability of fast and accurate prediction of non-gravitational aerodynamic forces, which is characterised by the free molecular flow regime. However, conventional computational methods like the analytical integral method and direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) technique are found failing to deal with flow shadowing and multiple reflections or computationally expensive. This work develops a general computer program for the accurate calculation of aerodynamic forces in the free molecular flow regime using the test particle Monte Carlo (TPMC) method, and non-gravitational aerodynamic forces actiong on the Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer (GOCE) satellite is calculated for different freestream conditions and gas-surface interaction models by the computer program.

  20. Is Demography Destiny? Application of Machine Learning Techniques to Accurately Predict Population Health Outcomes from a Minimal Demographic Dataset

    PubMed Central

    Luo, Wei; Nguyen, Thin; Nichols, Melanie; Tran, Truyen; Rana, Santu; Gupta, Sunil; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha; Allender, Steve

    2015-01-01

    For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease. PMID:25938675

  1. Is demography destiny? Application of machine learning techniques to accurately predict population health outcomes from a minimal demographic dataset.

    PubMed

    Luo, Wei; Nguyen, Thin; Nichols, Melanie; Tran, Truyen; Rana, Santu; Gupta, Sunil; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha; Allender, Steve

    2015-01-01

    For years, we have relied on population surveys to keep track of regional public health statistics, including the prevalence of non-communicable diseases. Because of the cost and limitations of such surveys, we often do not have the up-to-date data on health outcomes of a region. In this paper, we examined the feasibility of inferring regional health outcomes from socio-demographic data that are widely available and timely updated through national censuses and community surveys. Using data for 50 American states (excluding Washington DC) from 2007 to 2012, we constructed a machine-learning model to predict the prevalence of six non-communicable disease (NCD) outcomes (four NCDs and two major clinical risk factors), based on population socio-demographic characteristics from the American Community Survey. We found that regional prevalence estimates for non-communicable diseases can be reasonably predicted. The predictions were highly correlated with the observed data, in both the states included in the derivation model (median correlation 0.88) and those excluded from the development for use as a completely separated validation sample (median correlation 0.85), demonstrating that the model had sufficient external validity to make good predictions, based on demographics alone, for areas not included in the model development. This highlights both the utility of this sophisticated approach to model development, and the vital importance of simple socio-demographic characteristics as both indicators and determinants of chronic disease.

  2. Simplified risk score models accurately predict the risk of major in-hospital complications following percutaneous coronary intervention.

    PubMed

    Resnic, F S; Ohno-Machado, L; Selwyn, A; Simon, D I; Popma, J J

    2001-07-01

    The objectives of this analysis were to develop and validate simplified risk score models for predicting the risk of major in-hospital complications after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in the era of widespread stenting and use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists. We then sought to compare the performance of these simplified models with those of full logistic regression and neural network models. From January 1, 1997 to December 31, 1999, data were collected on 4,264 consecutive interventional procedures at a single center. Risk score models were derived from multiple logistic regression models using the first 2,804 cases and then validated on the final 1,460 cases. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for the risk score model that predicted death was 0.86 compared with 0.85 for the multiple logistic model and 0.83 for the neural network model (validation set). For the combined end points of death, myocardial infarction, or bypass surgery, the corresponding areas under the ROC curves were 0.74, 0.78, and 0.81, respectively. Previously identified risk factors were confirmed in this analysis. The use of stents was associated with a decreased risk of in-hospital complications. Thus, risk score models can accurately predict the risk of major in-hospital complications after PCI. Their discriminatory power is comparable to those of logistic models and neural network models. Accurate bedside risk stratification may be achieved with these simple models.

  3. Accurate prediction of the refractive index of polymers using first principles and data modeling

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Afzal, Mohammad Atif Faiz; Cheng, Chong; Hachmann, Johannes

    Organic polymers with a high refractive index (RI) have recently attracted considerable interest due to their potential application in optical and optoelectronic devices. The ability to tailor the molecular structure of polymers is the key to increasing the accessible RI values. Our work concerns the creation of predictive in silico models for the optical properties of organic polymers, the screening of large-scale candidate libraries, and the mining of the resulting data to extract the underlying design principles that govern their performance. This work was set up to guide our experimentalist partners and allow them to target the most promising candidates. Our model is based on the Lorentz-Lorenz equation and thus includes the polarizability and number density values for each candidate. For the former, we performed a detailed benchmark study of different density functionals, basis sets, and the extrapolation scheme towards the polymer limit. For the number density we devised an exceedingly efficient machine learning approach to correlate the polymer structure and the packing fraction in the bulk material. We validated the proposed RI model against the experimentally known RI values of 112 polymers. We could show that the proposed combination of physical and data modeling is both successful and highly economical to characterize a wide range of organic polymers, which is a prerequisite for virtual high-throughput screening.

  4. The human skin/chick chorioallantoic membrane model accurately predicts the potency of cosmetic allergens.

    PubMed

    Slodownik, Dan; Grinberg, Igor; Spira, Ram M; Skornik, Yehuda; Goldstein, Ronald S

    2009-04-01

    The current standard method for predicting contact allergenicity is the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA). Public objection to the use of animals in testing of cosmetics makes the development of a system that does not use sentient animals highly desirable. The chorioallantoic membrane (CAM) of the chick egg has been extensively used for the growth of normal and transformed mammalian tissues. The CAM is not innervated, and embryos are sacrificed before the development of pain perception. The aim of this study was to determine whether the sensitization phase of contact dermatitis to known cosmetic allergens can be quantified using CAM-engrafted human skin and how these results compare with published EC3 data obtained with the LLNA. We studied six common molecules used in allergen testing and quantified migration of epidermal Langerhans cells (LC) as a measure of their allergic potency. All agents with known allergic potential induced statistically significant migration of LC. The data obtained correlated well with published data for these allergens generated using the LLNA test. The human-skin CAM model therefore has great potential as an inexpensive, non-radioactive, in vivo alternative to the LLNA, which does not require the use of sentient animals. In addition, this system has the advantage of testing the allergic response of human, rather than animal skin.

  5. Searching for Computational Strategies to Accurately Predict pKas of Large Phenolic Derivatives.

    PubMed

    Rebollar-Zepeda, Aida Mariana; Campos-Hernández, Tania; Ramírez-Silva, María Teresa; Rojas-Hernández, Alberto; Galano, Annia

    2011-08-09

    Twenty-two reaction schemes have been tested, within the cluster-continuum model including up to seven explicit water molecules. They have been used in conjunction with nine different methods, within the density functional theory and with second-order Møller-Plesset. The quality of the pKa predictions was found to be strongly dependent on the chosen scheme, while only moderately influenced by the method of calculation. We recommend the E1 reaction scheme [HA + OH(-) (3H2O) ↔ A(-) (H2O) + 3H2O], since it yields mean unsigned errors (MUE) lower than 1 unit of pKa for most of the tested functionals. The best pKa values obtained from this reaction scheme are those involving calculations with PBE0 (MUE = 0.77), TPSS (MUE = 0.82), BHandHLYP (MUE = 0.82), and B3LYP (MUE = 0.86) functionals. This scheme has the additional advantage, compared to the proton exchange method, which also gives very small values of MUE, of being experiment independent. It should be kept in mind, however, that these recommendations are valid within the cluster-continuum model, using the polarizable continuum model in conjunction with the united atom Hartree-Fock cavity and the strategy based on thermodynamic cycles. Changes in any of these aspects of the used methodology may lead to different outcomes.

  6. Towards Relaxing the Spherical Solar Radiation Pressure Model for Accurate Orbit Predictions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lachut, M.; Bennett, J.

    2016-09-01

    The well-known cannonball model has been used ubiquitously to capture the effects of atmospheric drag and solar radiation pressure on satellites and/or space debris for decades. While it lends itself naturally to spherical objects, its validity in the case of non-spherical objects has been debated heavily for years throughout the space situational awareness community. One of the leading motivations to improve orbit predictions by relaxing the spherical assumption, is the ongoing demand for more robust and reliable conjunction assessments. In this study, we explore the orbit propagation of a flat plate in a near-GEO orbit under the influence of solar radiation pressure, using a Lambertian BRDF model. Consequently, this approach will account for the spin rate and orientation of the object, which is typically determined in practice using a light curve analysis. Here, simulations will be performed which systematically reduces the spin rate to demonstrate the point at which the spherical model no longer describes the orbital elements of the spinning plate. Further understanding of this threshold would provide insight into when a higher fidelity model should be used, thus resulting in improved orbit propagations. Therefore, the work presented here is of particular interest to organizations and researchers that maintain their own catalog, and/or perform conjunction analyses.

  7. Towards Accurate Prediction of Turbulent, Three-Dimensional, Recirculating Flows with the NCC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Iannetti, A.; Tacina, R.; Jeng, S.-M.; Cai, J.

    2001-01-01

    The National Combustion Code (NCC) was used to calculate the steady state, nonreacting flow field of a prototype Lean Direct Injection (LDI) swirler. This configuration used nine groups of eight holes drilled at a thirty-five degree angle to induce swirl. These nine groups created swirl in the same direction, or a corotating pattern. The static pressure drop across the holes was fixed at approximately four percent. Computations were performed on one quarter of the geometry, because the geometry is considered rotationally periodic every ninety degrees. The final computational grid used was approximately 2.26 million tetrahedral cells, and a cubic nonlinear k - epsilon model was used to model turbulence. The NCC results were then compared to time averaged Laser Doppler Velocimetry (LDV) data. The LDV measurements were performed on the full geometry, but four ninths of the geometry was measured. One-, two-, and three-dimensional representations of both flow fields are presented. The NCC computations compare both qualitatively and quantitatively well to the LDV data, but differences exist downstream. The comparison is encouraging, and shows that NCC can be used for future injector design studies. To improve the flow prediction accuracy of turbulent, three-dimensional, recirculating flow fields with the NCC, recommendations are given.

  8. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery

    SciTech Connect

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke

    2015-11-15

    attributed to phantom setup errors due to the slightly deformable and flexible phantom extremities. The estimated site-specific safety buffer distance with 0.001% probability of collision for (gantry-to-couch, gantry-to-phantom) was (1.23 cm, 3.35 cm), (1.01 cm, 3.99 cm), and (2.19 cm, 5.73 cm) for treatment to the head, lung, and prostate, respectively. Automated delivery to all three treatment sites was completed in 15 min and collision free using a digital Linac. Conclusions: An individualized collision prediction model for the purpose of noncoplanar beam delivery was developed and verified. With the model, the study has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting deliverable beams for an individual patient and then guiding fully automated noncoplanar treatment delivery. This work motivates development of clinical workflows and quality assurance procedures to allow more extensive use and automation of noncoplanar beam geometries.

  9. The development and verification of a highly accurate collision prediction model for automated noncoplanar plan delivery

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Victoria Y.; Tran, Angelia; Nguyen, Dan; Cao, Minsong; Ruan, Dan; Low, Daniel A.; Sheng, Ke

    2015-01-01

    attributed to phantom setup errors due to the slightly deformable and flexible phantom extremities. The estimated site-specific safety buffer distance with 0.001% probability of collision for (gantry-to-couch, gantry-to-phantom) was (1.23 cm, 3.35 cm), (1.01 cm, 3.99 cm), and (2.19 cm, 5.73 cm) for treatment to the head, lung, and prostate, respectively. Automated delivery to all three treatment sites was completed in 15 min and collision free using a digital Linac. Conclusions: An individualized collision prediction model for the purpose of noncoplanar beam delivery was developed and verified. With the model, the study has demonstrated the feasibility of predicting deliverable beams for an individual patient and then guiding fully automated noncoplanar treatment delivery. This work motivates development of clinical workflows and quality assurance procedures to allow more extensive use and automation of noncoplanar beam geometries. PMID:26520735

  10. How Accurate Are the Anthropometry Equations in in Iranian Military Men in Predicting Body Composition?

    PubMed Central

    Shakibaee, Abolfazl; Faghihzadeh, Soghrat; Alishiri, Gholam Hossein; Ebrahimpour, Zeynab; Faradjzadeh, Shahram; Sobhani, Vahid; Asgari, Alireza

    2015-01-01

    Background: The body composition varies according to different life styles (i.e. intake calories and caloric expenditure). Therefore, it is wise to record military personnel’s body composition periodically and encourage those who abide to the regulations. Different methods have been introduced for body composition assessment: invasive and non-invasive. Amongst them, the Jackson and Pollock equation is most popular. Objectives: The recommended anthropometric prediction equations for assessing men’s body composition were compared with dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) gold standard to develop a modified equation to assess body composition and obesity quantitatively among Iranian military men. Patients and Methods: A total of 101 military men aged 23 - 52 years old with a mean age of 35.5 years were recruited and evaluated in the present study (average height, 173.9 cm and weight, 81.5 kg). The body-fat percentages of subjects were assessed both with anthropometric assessment and DEXA scan. The data obtained from these two methods were then compared using multiple regression analysis. Results: The mean and standard deviation of body fat percentage of the DEXA assessment was 21.2 ± 4.3 and body fat percentage obtained from three Jackson and Pollock 3-, 4- and 7-site equations were 21.1 ± 5.8, 22.2 ± 6.0 and 20.9 ± 5.7, respectively. There was a strong correlation between these three equations and DEXA (R² = 0.98). Conclusions: The mean percentage of body fat obtained from the three equations of Jackson and Pollock was very close to that of body fat obtained from DEXA; however, we suggest using a modified Jackson-Pollock 3-site equation for volunteer military men because the 3-site equation analysis method is simpler and faster than other methods. PMID:26715964

  11. Deformation, Failure, and Fatigue Life of SiC/Ti-15-3 Laminates Accurately Predicted by MAC/GMC

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bednarcyk, Brett A.; Arnold, Steven M.

    2002-01-01

    NASA Glenn Research Center's Micromechanics Analysis Code with Generalized Method of Cells (MAC/GMC) (ref.1) has been extended to enable fully coupled macro-micro deformation, failure, and fatigue life predictions for advanced metal matrix, ceramic matrix, and polymer matrix composites. Because of the multiaxial nature of the code's underlying micromechanics model, GMC--which allows the incorporation of complex local inelastic constitutive models--MAC/GMC finds its most important application in metal matrix composites, like the SiC/Ti-15-3 composite examined here. Furthermore, since GMC predicts the microscale fields within each constituent of the composite material, submodels for local effects such as fiber breakage, interfacial debonding, and matrix fatigue damage can and have been built into MAC/GMC. The present application of MAC/GMC highlights the combination of these features, which has enabled the accurate modeling of the deformation, failure, and life of titanium matrix composites.

  12. Large-scale extraction of accurate drug-disease treatment pairs from biomedical literature for drug repurposing

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background A large-scale, highly accurate, machine-understandable drug-disease treatment relationship knowledge base is important for computational approaches to drug repurposing. The large body of published biomedical research articles and clinical case reports available on MEDLINE is a rich source of FDA-approved drug-disease indication as well as drug-repurposing knowledge that is crucial for applying FDA-approved drugs for new diseases. However, much of this information is buried in free text and not captured in any existing databases. The goal of this study is to extract a large number of accurate drug-disease treatment pairs from published literature. Results In this study, we developed a simple but highly accurate pattern-learning approach to extract treatment-specific drug-disease pairs from 20 million biomedical abstracts available on MEDLINE. We extracted a total of 34,305 unique drug-disease treatment pairs, the majority of which are not included in existing structured databases. Our algorithm achieved a precision of 0.904 and a recall of 0.131 in extracting all pairs, and a precision of 0.904 and a recall of 0.842 in extracting frequent pairs. In addition, we have shown that the extracted pairs strongly correlate with both drug target genes and therapeutic classes, therefore may have high potential in drug discovery. Conclusions We demonstrated that our simple pattern-learning relationship extraction algorithm is able to accurately extract many drug-disease pairs from the free text of biomedical literature that are not captured in structured databases. The large-scale, accurate, machine-understandable drug-disease treatment knowledge base that is resultant of our study, in combination with pairs from structured databases, will have high potential in computational drug repurposing tasks. PMID:23742147

  13. Industrial Compositional Streamline Simulation for Efficient and Accurate Prediction of Gas Injection and WAG Processes

    SciTech Connect

    Margot Gerritsen

    2008-10-31

    Gas-injection processes are widely and increasingly used for enhanced oil recovery (EOR). In the United States, for example, EOR production by gas injection accounts for approximately 45% of total EOR production and has tripled since 1986. The understanding of the multiphase, multicomponent flow taking place in any displacement process is essential for successful design of gas-injection projects. Due to complex reservoir geometry, reservoir fluid properties and phase behavior, the design of accurate and efficient numerical simulations for the multiphase, multicomponent flow governing these processes is nontrivial. In this work, we developed, implemented and tested a streamline based solver for gas injection processes that is computationally very attractive: as compared to traditional Eulerian solvers in use by industry it computes solutions with a computational speed orders of magnitude higher and a comparable accuracy provided that cross-flow effects do not dominate. We contributed to the development of compositional streamline solvers in three significant ways: improvement of the overall framework allowing improved streamline coverage and partial streamline tracing, amongst others; parallelization of the streamline code, which significantly improves wall clock time; and development of new compositional solvers that can be implemented along streamlines as well as in existing Eulerian codes used by industry. We designed several novel ideas in the streamline framework. First, we developed an adaptive streamline coverage algorithm. Adding streamlines locally can reduce computational costs by concentrating computational efforts where needed, and reduce mapping errors. Adapting streamline coverage effectively controls mass balance errors that mostly result from the mapping from streamlines to pressure grid. We also introduced the concept of partial streamlines: streamlines that do not necessarily start and/or end at wells. This allows more efficient coverage and avoids

  14. Can the conventional sextant prostate biopsy accurately predict unilateral prostate cancer in low-risk, localized, prostate cancer?

    PubMed

    Mayes, Janice M; Mouraviev, Vladimir; Sun, Leon; Tsivian, Matvey; Madden, John F; Polascik, Thomas J

    2011-01-01

    We evaluate the reliability of routine sextant prostate biopsy to detect unilateral lesions. A total of 365 men with complete records including all clinical and pathologic variables who underwent a preoperative sextant biopsy and subsequent radical prostatectomy (RP) for clinically localized prostate cancer at our medical center between January 1996 and December 2006 were identified. When the sextant biopsy detects unilateral disease, according to RP results, the NPV is high (91%) with a low false negative rate (9%). However, the sextant biopsy has a PPV of 28% with a high false positive rate (72%). Therefore, a routine sextant prostate biopsy cannot provide reliable, accurate information about the unilaterality of tumor lesion(s).

  15. Does a more precise chemical description of protein-ligand complexes lead to more accurate prediction of binding affinity?

    PubMed

    Ballester, Pedro J; Schreyer, Adrian; Blundell, Tom L

    2014-03-24

    Predicting the binding affinities of large sets of diverse molecules against a range of macromolecular targets is an extremely challenging task. The scoring functions that attempt such computational prediction are essential for exploiting and analyzing the outputs of docking, which is in turn an important tool in problems such as structure-based drug design. Classical scoring functions assume a predetermined theory-inspired functional form for the relationship between the variables that describe an experimentally determined or modeled structure of a protein-ligand complex and its binding affinity. The inherent problem of this approach is in the difficulty of explicitly modeling the various contributions of intermolecular interactions to binding affinity. New scoring functions based on machine-learning regression models, which are able to exploit effectively much larger amounts of experimental data and circumvent the need for a predetermined functional form, have already been shown to outperform a broad range of state-of-the-art scoring functions in a widely used benchmark. Here, we investigate the impact of the chemical description of the complex on the predictive power of the resulting scoring function using a systematic battery of numerical experiments. The latter resulted in the most accurate scoring function to date on the benchmark. Strikingly, we also found that a more precise chemical description of the protein-ligand complex does not generally lead to a more accurate prediction of binding affinity. We discuss four factors that may contribute to this result: modeling assumptions, codependence of representation and regression, data restricted to the bound state, and conformational heterogeneity in data.

  16. Easy-to-use, general, and accurate multi-Kinect calibration and its application to gait monitoring for fall prediction.

    PubMed

    Staranowicz, Aaron N; Ray, Christopher; Mariottini, Gian-Luca

    2015-01-01

    Falls are the most-common causes of unintentional injury and death in older adults. Many clinics, hospitals, and health-care providers are urgently seeking accurate, low-cost, and easy-to-use technology to predict falls before they happen, e.g., by monitoring the human walking pattern (or "gait"). Despite the wide popularity of Microsoft's Kinect and the plethora of solutions for gait monitoring, no strategy has been proposed to date to allow non-expert users to calibrate the cameras, which is essential to accurately fuse the body motion observed by each camera in a single frame of reference. In this paper, we present a novel multi-Kinect calibration algorithm that has advanced features when compared to existing methods: 1) is easy to use, 2) it can be used in any generic Kinect arrangement, and 3) it provides accurate calibration. Extensive real-world experiments have been conducted to validate our algorithm and to compare its performance against other multi-Kinect calibration approaches, especially to show the improved estimate of gait parameters. Finally, a MATLAB Toolbox has been made publicly available for the entire research community.

  17. A cross-race effect in metamemory: Predictions of face recognition are more accurate for members of our own race

    PubMed Central

    Hourihan, Kathleen L.; Benjamin, Aaron S.; Liu, Xiping

    2012-01-01

    The Cross-Race Effect (CRE) in face recognition is the well-replicated finding that people are better at recognizing faces from their own race, relative to other races. The CRE reveals systematic limitations on eyewitness identification accuracy and suggests that some caution is warranted in evaluating cross-race identification. The CRE is a problem because jurors value eyewitness identification highly in verdict decisions. In the present paper, we explore how accurate people are in predicting their ability to recognize own-race and other-race faces. Caucasian and Asian participants viewed photographs of Caucasian and Asian faces, and made immediate judgments of learning during study. An old/new recognition test replicated the CRE: both groups displayed superior discriminability of own-race faces, relative to other-race faces. Importantly, relative metamnemonic accuracy was also greater for own-race faces, indicating that the accuracy of predictions about face recognition is influenced by race. This result indicates another source of concern when eliciting or evaluating eyewitness identification: people are less accurate in judging whether they will or will not recognize a face when that face is of a different race than they are. This new result suggests that a witness’s claim of being likely to recognize a suspect from a lineup should be interpreted with caution when the suspect is of a different race than the witness. PMID:23162788

  18. A Weibull statistics-based lignocellulose saccharification model and a built-in parameter accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis performance.

    PubMed

    Wang, Mingyu; Han, Lijuan; Liu, Shasha; Zhao, Xuebing; Yang, Jinghua; Loh, Soh Kheang; Sun, Xiaomin; Zhang, Chenxi; Fang, Xu

    2015-09-01

    Renewable energy from lignocellulosic biomass has been deemed an alternative to depleting fossil fuels. In order to improve this technology, we aim to develop robust mathematical models for the enzymatic lignocellulose degradation process. By analyzing 96 groups of previously published and newly obtained lignocellulose saccharification results and fitting them to Weibull distribution, we discovered Weibull statistics can accurately predict lignocellulose saccharification data, regardless of the type of substrates, enzymes and saccharification conditions. A mathematical model for enzymatic lignocellulose degradation was subsequently constructed based on Weibull statistics. Further analysis of the mathematical structure of the model and experimental saccharification data showed the significance of the two parameters in this model. In particular, the λ value, defined the characteristic time, represents the overall performance of the saccharification system. This suggestion was further supported by statistical analysis of experimental saccharification data and analysis of the glucose production levels when λ and n values change. In conclusion, the constructed Weibull statistics-based model can accurately predict lignocellulose hydrolysis behavior and we can use the λ parameter to assess the overall performance of enzymatic lignocellulose degradation. Advantages and potential applications of the model and the λ value in saccharification performance assessment were discussed.

  19. Interspecies translation of disease networks increases robustness and predictive accuracy.

    PubMed

    Anvar, Seyed Yahya; Tucker, Allan; Vinciotti, Veronica; Venema, Andrea; van Ommen, Gert-Jan B; van der Maarel, Silvere M; Raz, Vered; 't Hoen, Peter A C

    2011-11-01

    Gene regulatory networks give important insights into the mechanisms underlying physiology and pathophysiology. The derivation of gene regulatory networks from high-throughput expression data via machine learning strategies is problematic as the reliability of these models is often compromised by limited and highly variable samples, heterogeneity in transcript isoforms, noise, and other artifacts. Here, we develop a novel algorithm, dubbed Dandelion, in which we construct and train intraspecies Bayesian networks that are translated and assessed on independent test sets from other species in a reiterative procedure. The interspecies disease networks are subjected to multi-layers of analysis and evaluation, leading to the identification of the most consistent relationships within the network structure. In this study, we demonstrate the performance of our algorithms on datasets from animal models of oculopharyngeal muscular dystrophy (OPMD) and patient materials. We show that the interspecies network of genes coding for the proteasome provide highly accurate predictions on gene expression levels and disease phenotype. Moreover, the cross-species translation increases the stability and robustness of these networks. Unlike existing modeling approaches, our algorithms do not require assumptions on notoriously difficult one-to-one mapping of protein orthologues or alternative transcripts and can deal with missing data. We show that the identified key components of the OPMD disease network can be confirmed in an unseen and independent disease model. This study presents a state-of-the-art strategy in constructing interspecies disease networks that provide crucial information on regulatory relationships among genes, leading to better understanding of the disease molecular mechanisms.

  20. Accurate prediction of unsteady and time-averaged pressure loads using a hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/large-eddy simulation technique

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bozinoski, Radoslav

    Significant research has been performed over the last several years on understanding the unsteady aerodynamics of various fluid flows. Much of this work has focused on quantifying the unsteady, three-dimensional flow field effects which have proven vital to the accurate prediction of many fluid and aerodynamic problems. Up until recently, engineers have predominantly relied on steady-state simulations to analyze the inherently three-dimensional ow structures that are prevalent in many of today's "real-world" problems. Increases in computational capacity and the development of efficient numerical methods can change this and allow for the solution of the unsteady Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) equations for practical three-dimensional aerodynamic applications. An integral part of this capability has been the performance and accuracy of the turbulence models coupled with advanced parallel computing techniques. This report begins with a brief literature survey of the role fully three-dimensional, unsteady, Navier-Stokes solvers have on the current state of numerical analysis. Next, the process of creating a baseline three-dimensional Multi-Block FLOw procedure called MBFLO3 is presented. Solutions for an inviscid circular arc bump, laminar at plate, laminar cylinder, and turbulent at plate are then presented. Results show good agreement with available experimental, numerical, and theoretical data. Scalability data for the parallel version of MBFLO3 is presented and shows efficiencies of 90% and higher for processes of no less than 100,000 computational grid points. Next, the description and implementation techniques used for several turbulence models are presented. Following the successful implementation of the URANS and DES procedures, the validation data for separated, non-reattaching flows over a NACA 0012 airfoil, wall-mounted hump, and a wing-body junction geometry are presented. Results for the NACA 0012 showed significant improvement in flow predictions

  1. Accurate prediction of death by serial determination of galactose elimination capacity in primary biliary cirrhosis: a comparison with the Mayo model.

    PubMed

    Reichen, J; Widmer, T; Cotting, J

    1991-09-01

    We retrospectively analyzed the predictive accuracy of serial determinations of galactose elimination capacity in 61 patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Death was predicted from the time that the regression line describing the decline in galactose elimination capacity vs. time intersected a value of 4 mg.min-1.kg-1. Thirty-one patients exhibited decreasing galactose elimination capacity; in 11 patients it remained stable and in 19 patients only one value was available. Among those patients with decreasing galactose elimination capacity, 10 died and three underwent liver transplantation; prediction of death was accurate to 7 +/- 19 mo. This criterion incorrectly predicted death in two patients with portal-vein thrombosis; otherwise, it did better than or as well as the Mayo clinic score. The latter was also tested on our patients and was found to adequately describe risk in yet another independent population of patients with primary biliary cirrhosis. Cox regression analysis selected only bilirubin and galactose elimination capacity, however, as independent predictors of death. We submit that serial determination of galactose elimination capacity in patients with primary biliary cirrhosis may be a useful adjunct to optimize the timing of liver transplantation and to evaluate new pharmacological treatment modalities of this disease.

  2. Optimizing odor identification testing as quick and accurate diagnostic tool for Parkinson's disease

    PubMed Central

    Mahlknecht, Philipp; Pechlaner, Raimund; Boesveldt, Sanne; Volc, Dieter; Pinter, Bernardette; Reiter, Eva; Müller, Christoph; Krismer, Florian; Berendse, Henk W.; van Hilten, Jacobus J.; Wuschitz, Albert; Schimetta, Wolfgang; Högl, Birgit; Djamshidian, Atbin; Nocker, Michael; Göbel, Georg; Gasperi, Arno; Kiechl, Stefan; Willeit, Johann; Poewe, Werner

    2016-01-01

    ABSTRACT Introduction The aim of this study was to evaluate odor identification testing as a quick, cheap, and reliable tool to identify PD. Methods Odor identification with the 16‐item Sniffin' Sticks test (SS‐16) was assessed in a total of 646 PD patients and 606 controls from three European centers (A, B, and C), as well as 75 patients with atypical parkinsonism or essential tremor and in a prospective cohort of 24 patients with idiopathic rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder (center A). Reduced odor sets most discriminative for PD were determined in a discovery cohort derived from a random split of PD patients and controls from center A using L1‐regularized logistic regression. Diagnostic accuracy was assessed in the rest of the patients/controls as validation cohorts. Results Olfactory performance was lower in PD patients compared with controls and non‐PD patients in all cohorts (each P < 0.001). Both the full SS‐16 and a subscore of the top eight discriminating odors (SS‐8) were associated with an excellent discrimination of PD from controls (areas under the curve ≥0.90; sensitivities ≥83.3%; specificities ≥82.0%) and from non‐PD patients (areas under the curve ≥0.91; sensitivities ≥84.1%; specificities ≥84.0%) in all cohorts. This remained unchanged when patients with >3 years of disease duration were excluded from analysis. All 8 incident PD cases among patients with idiopathic rapid eye movement sleep behavior disorder were predicted with the SS‐16 and the SS‐8 (sensitivity, 100%; positive predictive value, 61.5%). Conclusions Odor identification testing provides excellent diagnostic accuracy in the distinction of PD patients from controls and diagnostic mimics. A reduced set of eight odors could be used as a quick tool in the workup of patients presenting with parkinsonism and for PD risk indication. © 2016 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and

  3. Comparative analysis of four disease prediction models of Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Kumudini, Nadella; Naushad, Shaik Mohammad; Alex Stanley, Balraj; Niveditha, Manoharan; Sharmila, Gunasekaran; Kumaraswami, Konda; Borghain, Rupam; Mridula, Rukmini; Kutala, Vijay Kumar

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson's disease (PD) is a multi-factorial disorder with high-penetrant mutations accounting for small percentage of PD. Our previous studies demonstrated individual association of genetic variants in folate, xenobiotic, and dopamine metabolic pathways with PD risk. The rational of the study was to develop a risk prediction model for PD using these genetic polymorphisms along with synuclein (SNCA) polymorphism. We have generated additive, multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR), recursive partitioning (RP), and artificial neural network (ANN) models using 21 SNPs as inputs and disease outcome as output. The clinical utility of all these models was assessed by plotting receiver operating characteristics curves where in area under the curve (AUC) was used as an index of diagnostic utility of the model. The additive model was the simplest and exhibited an AUC of 0.72. The MDR model showed significant gene-gene interactions between SNCA, DRD4VNTR, and DRD2A polymorphisms. The RP model showed SHMT C1420T as important determinant of PD risk. This variant allele was found to be protective and this protection was nullified by MTRR A66G. Inheritance of SHMT wild allele and SNCA intronic polymorphism was shown to increase the risk of PD. The ANN model showed higher diagnostic utility (AUC = 0.86) compared to all the models and was able to explain 56.6% cases of sporadic PD. To conclude, the ANN model developed using SNPs in folate, xenobiotic, and dopamine pathways along with SNCA has higher clinical utility in predicting PD risk compared to other models.

  4. Accurate prediction of polarised high order electrostatic interactions for hydrogen bonded complexes using the machine learning method kriging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hughes, Timothy J.; Kandathil, Shaun M.; Popelier, Paul L. A.

    2015-02-01

    As intermolecular interactions such as the hydrogen bond are electrostatic in origin, rigorous treatment of this term within force field methodologies should be mandatory. We present a method able of accurately reproducing such interactions for seven van der Waals complexes. It uses atomic multipole moments up to hexadecupole moment mapped to the positions of the nuclear coordinates by the machine learning method kriging. Models were built at three levels of theory: HF/6-31G**, B3LYP/aug-cc-pVDZ and M06-2X/aug-cc-pVDZ. The quality of the kriging models was measured by their ability to predict the electrostatic interaction energy between atoms in external test examples for which the true energies are known. At all levels of theory, >90% of test cases for small van der Waals complexes were predicted within 1 kJ mol-1, decreasing to 60-70% of test cases for larger base pair complexes. Models built on moments obtained at B3LYP and M06-2X level generally outperformed those at HF level. For all systems the individual interactions were predicted with a mean unsigned error of less than 1 kJ mol-1.

  5. Accurate prediction of polarised high order electrostatic interactions for hydrogen bonded complexes using the machine learning method kriging.

    PubMed

    Hughes, Timothy J; Kandathil, Shaun M; Popelier, Paul L A

    2015-02-05

    As intermolecular interactions such as the hydrogen bond are electrostatic in origin, rigorous treatment of this term within force field methodologies should be mandatory. We present a method able of accurately reproducing such interactions for seven van der Waals complexes. It uses atomic multipole moments up to hexadecupole moment mapped to the positions of the nuclear coordinates by the machine learning method kriging. Models were built at three levels of theory: HF/6-31G(**), B3LYP/aug-cc-pVDZ and M06-2X/aug-cc-pVDZ. The quality of the kriging models was measured by their ability to predict the electrostatic interaction energy between atoms in external test examples for which the true energies are known. At all levels of theory, >90% of test cases for small van der Waals complexes were predicted within 1 kJ mol(-1), decreasing to 60-70% of test cases for larger base pair complexes. Models built on moments obtained at B3LYP and M06-2X level generally outperformed those at HF level. For all systems the individual interactions were predicted with a mean unsigned error of less than 1 kJ mol(-1).

  6. Accurate prediction of cellular co-translational folding indicates proteins can switch from post- to co-translational folding

    PubMed Central

    Nissley, Daniel A.; Sharma, Ajeet K.; Ahmed, Nabeel; Friedrich, Ulrike A.; Kramer, Günter; Bukau, Bernd; O'Brien, Edward P.

    2016-01-01

    The rates at which domains fold and codons are translated are important factors in determining whether a nascent protein will co-translationally fold and function or misfold and malfunction. Here we develop a chemical kinetic model that calculates a protein domain's co-translational folding curve during synthesis using only the domain's bulk folding and unfolding rates and codon translation rates. We show that this model accurately predicts the course of co-translational folding measured in vivo for four different protein molecules. We then make predictions for a number of different proteins in yeast and find that synonymous codon substitutions, which change translation-elongation rates, can switch some protein domains from folding post-translationally to folding co-translationally—a result consistent with previous experimental studies. Our approach explains essential features of co-translational folding curves and predicts how varying the translation rate at different codon positions along a transcript's coding sequence affects this self-assembly process. PMID:26887592

  7. Genomic prediction of coronary heart disease

    PubMed Central

    Abraham, Gad; Havulinna, Aki S.; Bhalala, Oneil G.; Byars, Sean G.; De Livera, Alysha M.; Yetukuri, Laxman; Tikkanen, Emmi; Perola, Markus; Schunkert, Heribert; Sijbrands, Eric J.; Palotie, Aarno; Samani, Nilesh J.; Salomaa, Veikko; Ripatti, Samuli; Inouye, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Aims Genetics plays an important role in coronary heart disease (CHD) but the clinical utility of genomic risk scores (GRSs) relative to clinical risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is unclear. Our aim was to construct and externally validate a CHD GRS, in terms of lifetime CHD risk and relative to traditional clinical risk scores. Methods and results We generated a GRS of 49 310 SNPs based on a CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium meta-analysis of CHD, then independently tested it using five prospective population cohorts (three FINRISK cohorts, combined n = 12 676, 757 incident CHD events; two Framingham Heart Study cohorts (FHS), combined n = 3406, 587 incident CHD events). The GRS was associated with incident CHD (FINRISK HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61–1.86 per S.D. of GRS; Framingham HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.18–1.38), and was largely unchanged by adjustment for known risk factors, including family history. Integration of the GRS with the FRS or ACC/AHA13 scores improved the 10 years risk prediction (meta-analysis C-index: +1.5–1.6%, P < 0.001), particularly for individuals ≥60 years old (meta-analysis C-index: +4.6–5.1%, P < 0.001). Importantly, the GRS captured substantially different trajectories of absolute risk, with men in the top 20% of attaining 10% cumulative CHD risk 12–18 y earlier than those in the bottom 20%. High genomic risk was partially compensated for by low systolic blood pressure, low cholesterol level, and non-smoking. Conclusions A GRS based on a large number of SNPs improves CHD risk prediction and encodes different trajectories of lifetime risk not captured by traditional clinical risk scores. PMID:27655226

  8. Poisson Mixture Regression Models for Heart Disease Prediction.

    PubMed

    Mufudza, Chipo; Erol, Hamza

    2016-01-01

    Early heart disease control can be achieved by high disease prediction and diagnosis efficiency. This paper focuses on the use of model based clustering techniques to predict and diagnose heart disease via Poisson mixture regression models. Analysis and application of Poisson mixture regression models is here addressed under two different classes: standard and concomitant variable mixture regression models. Results show that a two-component concomitant variable Poisson mixture regression model predicts heart disease better than both the standard Poisson mixture regression model and the ordinary general linear Poisson regression model due to its low Bayesian Information Criteria value. Furthermore, a Zero Inflated Poisson Mixture Regression model turned out to be the best model for heart prediction over all models as it both clusters individuals into high or low risk category and predicts rate to heart disease componentwise given clusters available. It is deduced that heart disease prediction can be effectively done by identifying the major risks componentwise using Poisson mixture regression model.

  9. A novel fibrosis index comprising a non-cholesterol sterol accurately predicts HCV-related liver cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Ydreborg, Magdalena; Lisovskaja, Vera; Lagging, Martin; Brehm Christensen, Peer; Langeland, Nina; Buhl, Mads Rauning; Pedersen, Court; Mørch, Kristine; Wejstål, Rune; Norkrans, Gunnar; Lindh, Magnus; Färkkilä, Martti; Westin, Johan

    2014-01-01

    Diagnosis of liver cirrhosis is essential in the management of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Liver biopsy is invasive and thus entails a risk of complications as well as a potential risk of sampling error. Therefore, non-invasive diagnostic tools are preferential. The aim of the present study was to create a model for accurate prediction of liver cirrhosis based on patient characteristics and biomarkers of liver fibrosis, including a panel of non-cholesterol sterols reflecting cholesterol synthesis and absorption and secretion. We evaluated variables with potential predictive significance for liver fibrosis in 278 patients originally included in a multicenter phase III treatment trial for chronic HCV infection. A stepwise multivariate logistic model selection was performed with liver cirrhosis, defined as Ishak fibrosis stage 5-6, as the outcome variable. A new index, referred to as Nordic Liver Index (NoLI) in the paper, was based on the model: Log-odds (predicting cirrhosis) = -12.17+ (age × 0.11) + (BMI (kg/m(2)) × 0.23) + (D7-lathosterol (μg/100 mg cholesterol)×(-0.013)) + (Platelet count (x10(9)/L) × (-0.018)) + (Prothrombin-INR × 3.69). The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) for prediction of cirrhosis was 0.91 (95% CI 0.86-0.96). The index was validated in a separate cohort of 83 patients and the AUROC for this cohort was similar (0.90; 95% CI: 0.82-0.98). In conclusion, the new index may complement other methods in diagnosing cirrhosis in patients with chronic HCV infection.

  10. Estimating the state of a geophysical system with sparse observations: time delay methods to achieve accurate initial states for prediction

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    An, Zhe; Rey, Daniel; Ye, Jingxin; Abarbanel, Henry D. I.

    2017-01-01

    The problem of forecasting the behavior of a complex dynamical system through analysis of observational time-series data becomes difficult when the system expresses chaotic behavior and the measurements are sparse, in both space and/or time. Despite the fact that this situation is quite typical across many fields, including numerical weather prediction, the issue of whether the available observations are "sufficient" for generating successful forecasts is still not well understood. An analysis by Whartenby et al. (2013) found that in the context of the nonlinear shallow water equations on a β plane, standard nudging techniques require observing approximately 70 % of the full set of state variables. Here we examine the same system using a method introduced by Rey et al. (2014a), which generalizes standard nudging methods to utilize time delayed measurements. We show that in certain circumstances, it provides a sizable reduction in the number of observations required to construct accurate estimates and high-quality predictions. In particular, we find that this estimate of 70 % can be reduced to about 33 % using time delays, and even further if Lagrangian drifter locations are also used as measurements.

  11. Accurate X-Ray Spectral Predictions: An Advanced Self-Consistent-Field Approach Inspired by Many-Body Perturbation Theory

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Liang, Yufeng; Vinson, John; Pemmaraju, Sri; Drisdell, Walter S.; Shirley, Eric L.; Prendergast, David

    2017-03-01

    Constrained-occupancy delta-self-consistent-field (Δ SCF ) methods and many-body perturbation theories (MBPT) are two strategies for obtaining electronic excitations from first principles. Using the two distinct approaches, we study the O 1 s core excitations that have become increasingly important for characterizing transition-metal oxides and understanding strong electronic correlation. The Δ SCF approach, in its current single-particle form, systematically underestimates the pre-edge intensity for chosen oxides, despite its success in weakly correlated systems. By contrast, the Bethe-Salpeter equation within MBPT predicts much better line shapes. This motivates one to reexamine the many-electron dynamics of x-ray excitations. We find that the single-particle Δ SCF approach can be rectified by explicitly calculating many-electron transition amplitudes, producing x-ray spectra in excellent agreement with experiments. This study paves the way to accurately predict x-ray near-edge spectral fingerprints for physics and materials science beyond the Bethe-Salpether equation.

  12. The Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised accurately detects cognitive decline in Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Begeti, Faye; Tan, Adrian Y K; Cummins, Gemma A; Collins, Lucy M; Guzman, Natalie Valle; Mason, Sarah L; Barker, Roger A

    2013-11-01

    Cognitive features, which begin before manifestation of the motor features, are an integral part of Huntington's disease and profoundly affect quality of life. A number of neuropsychological batteries have been used to assess this aspect of the condition, many of which are difficult to administer and time consuming, especially in advanced disease. We, therefore, investigated a simple and practical way to monitor cognition using the Addenbrooke's Cognitive Examination-Revised (ACE-R) in 126 manifest Huntington's disease patients, 28 premanifest gene carriers and 21 controls. Using this test, we demonstrated a selective decrease in phonemic, but not semantic, fluency in premanifest participants Cognitive decline in manifest Huntington's disease varied according to disease severity with extensive cognitive decline observed in early-stage Huntington's disease patients, indicating that this would be an optimal stage for interventions designed to halt cognitive decline, and lesser changes in the advanced cases. We next examined cognitive performance in patients prescribed antidopaminergic drugs as these drugs are known to decrease cognition when administered to healthy volunteers. We paradoxically found that these drugs may be beneficial, as early-stage Huntington's disease participants in receipt of them had improved attention and Mini-Mental State Examination scores. In conclusion, this is the first study to test the usefulness of the ACE-R in a Huntington's disease population and demonstrates that this is a brief, inexpensive and practical way to measure global cognitive performance in clinical practice with potential use in clinical trials.

  13. Genomic Models of Short-Term Exposure Accurately Predict Long-Term Chemical Carcinogenicity and Identify Putative Mechanisms of Action

    PubMed Central

    Gusenleitner, Daniel; Auerbach, Scott S.; Melia, Tisha; Gómez, Harold F.; Sherr, David H.; Monti, Stefano

    2014-01-01

    Background Despite an overall decrease in incidence of and mortality from cancer, about 40% of Americans will be diagnosed with the disease in their lifetime, and around 20% will die of it. Current approaches to test carcinogenic chemicals adopt the 2-year rodent bioassay, which is costly and time-consuming. As a result, fewer than 2% of the chemicals on the market have actually been tested. However, evidence accumulated to date suggests that gene expression profiles from model organisms exposed to chemical compounds reflect underlying mechanisms of action, and that these toxicogenomic models could be used in the prediction of chemical carcinogenicity. Results In this study, we used a rat-based microarray dataset from the NTP DrugMatrix Database to test the ability of toxicogenomics to model carcinogenicity. We analyzed 1,221 gene-expression profiles obtained from rats treated with 127 well-characterized compounds, including genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens. We built a classifier that predicts a chemical's carcinogenic potential with an AUC of 0.78, and validated it on an independent dataset from the Japanese Toxicogenomics Project consisting of 2,065 profiles from 72 compounds. Finally, we identified differentially expressed genes associated with chemical carcinogenesis, and developed novel data-driven approaches for the molecular characterization of the response to chemical stressors. Conclusion Here, we validate a toxicogenomic approach to predict carcinogenicity and provide strong evidence that, with a larger set of compounds, we should be able to improve the sensitivity and specificity of the predictions. We found that the prediction of carcinogenicity is tissue-dependent and that the results also confirm and expand upon previous studies implicating DNA damage, the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor, the aryl hydrocarbon receptor, and regenerative pathology in the response to carcinogen exposure. PMID:25058030

  14. How many clinic BP readings are needed to predict cardiovascular events as accurately as ambulatory BP monitoring?

    PubMed

    Eguchi, K; Hoshide, S; Shimada, K; Kario, K

    2014-12-01

    We tested the hypothesis that multiple clinic blood pressure (BP) readings over an extended baseline period would be as predictive as ambulatory BP (ABP) for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Clinic and ABP monitoring were performed in 457 hypertensive patients at baseline. Clinic BP was measured monthly and the means of the first 3, 5 and 10 clinic BP readings were taken as the multiple clinic BP readings. The subjects were followed up, and stroke, HARD CVD, and ALL CVD events were determined as outcomes. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, ambulatory systolic BP (SBP) best predicted three outcomes independently of baseline and multiple clinic SBP readings. The mean of 10 clinic SBP readings predicted stroke (hazards ratio (HR)=1.39, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.02-1.90, P=0.04) and ALL CVD (HR=1.41, 95% CI=1.13-1.74, P=0.002) independently of baseline clinic SBP. Clinic SBPs by three and five readings were not associated with any CVD events, except that clinic SBP by three readings was associated with ALL CVD (P=0.015). Besides ABP values, the mean of the first 10 clinic SBP values was a significant predictor of stroke and ALL CVD events. It is important to take more than several clinic BP readings early after the baseline period for the risk stratification of future CVD events.

  15. Simple Learned Weighted Sums of Inferior Temporal Neuronal Firing Rates Accurately Predict Human Core Object Recognition Performance

    PubMed Central

    Hong, Ha; Solomon, Ethan A.; DiCarlo, James J.

    2015-01-01

    database of images for evaluating object recognition performance. We used multielectrode arrays to characterize hundreds of neurons in the visual ventral stream of nonhuman primates and measured the object recognition performance of >100 human observers. Remarkably, we found that simple learned weighted sums of firing rates of neurons in monkey inferior temporal (IT) cortex accurately predicted human performance. Although previous work led us to expect that IT would outperform V4, we were surprised by the quantitative precision with which simple IT-based linking hypotheses accounted for human behavior. PMID:26424887

  16. Simple Learned Weighted Sums of Inferior Temporal Neuronal Firing Rates Accurately Predict Human Core Object Recognition Performance.

    PubMed

    Majaj, Najib J; Hong, Ha; Solomon, Ethan A; DiCarlo, James J

    2015-09-30

    database of images for evaluating object recognition performance. We used multielectrode arrays to characterize hundreds of neurons in the visual ventral stream of nonhuman primates and measured the object recognition performance of >100 human observers. Remarkably, we found that simple learned weighted sums of firing rates of neurons in monkey inferior temporal (IT) cortex accurately predicted human performance. Although previous work led us to expect that IT would outperform V4, we were surprised by the quantitative precision with which simple IT-based linking hypotheses accounted for human behavior.

  17. Accurate ab initio predictions of ionization energies and heats of formation for the 2-propyl, phenyl, and benzyl radicals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lau, K.-C.; Ng, C. Y.

    2006-01-01

    The ionization energies (IEs) for the 2-propyl (2-C3H7), phenyl (C6H5), and benzyl (C6H5CH2) radicals have been calculated by the wave-function-based ab initio CCSD(T)/CBS approach, which involves the approximation to the complete basis set (CBS) limit at the coupled cluster level with single and double excitations plus quasiperturbative triple excitation [CCSD(T)]. The zero-point vibrational energy correction, the core-valence electronic correction, and the scalar relativistic effect correction have been also made in these calculations. Although a precise IE value for the 2-C3H7 radical has not been directly determined before due to the poor Franck-Condon factor for the photoionization transition at the ionization threshold, the experimental value deduced indirectly using other known energetic data is found to be in good accord with the present CCSD(T)/CBS prediction. The comparison between the predicted value through the focal-point analysis and the highly precise experimental value for the IE(C6H5CH2) determined in the previous pulsed field ionization photoelectron (PFI-PE) study shows that the CCSD(T)/CBS method is capable of providing an accurate IE prediction for C6H5CH2, achieving an error limit of 35 meV. The benchmarking of the CCSD(T)/CBS IE(C6H5CH2) prediction suggests that the CCSD(T)/CBS IE(C6H5) prediction obtained here has a similar accuracy of 35 meV. Taking into account this error limit for the CCSD(T)/CBS prediction and the experimental uncertainty, the CCSD(T)/CBS IE(C6H5) value is also consistent with the IE(C6H5) reported in the previous HeI photoelectron measurement. Furthermore, the present study provides support for the conclusion that the CCSD(T)/CBS approach with high-level energy corrections can be used to provide reliable IE predictions for C3-C7 hydrocarbon radicals with an uncertainty of +/-35 meV. Employing the atomization scheme, we have also computed the 0 K (298 K) heats of formation in kJ/mol at the CCSD(T)/CBS level for 2-C3H7

  18. Molecular Dynamics in Mixed Solvents Reveals Protein-Ligand Interactions, Improves Docking, and Allows Accurate Binding Free Energy Predictions.

    PubMed

    Arcon, Juan Pablo; Defelipe, Lucas A; Modenutti, Carlos P; López, Elias D; Alvarez-Garcia, Daniel; Barril, Xavier; Turjanski, Adrián G; Martí, Marcelo A

    2017-03-31

    One of the most important biological processes at the molecular level is the formation of protein-ligand complexes. Therefore, determining their structure and underlying key interactions is of paramount relevance and has direct applications in drug development. Because of its low cost relative to its experimental sibling, molecular dynamics (MD) simulations in the presence of different solvent probes mimicking specific types of interactions have been increasingly used to analyze protein binding sites and reveal protein-ligand interaction hot spots. However, a systematic comparison of different probes and their real predictive power from a quantitative and thermodynamic point of view is still missing. In the present work, we have performed MD simulations of 18 different proteins in pure water as well as water mixtures of ethanol, acetamide, acetonitrile and methylammonium acetate, leading to a total of 5.4 μs simulation time. For each system, we determined the corresponding solvent sites, defined as space regions adjacent to the protein surface where the probability of finding a probe atom is higher than that in the bulk solvent. Finally, we compared the identified solvent sites with 121 different protein-ligand complexes and used them to perform molecular docking and ligand binding free energy estimates. Our results show that combining solely water and ethanol sites allows sampling over 70% of all possible protein-ligand interactions, especially those that coincide with ligand-based pharmacophoric points. Most important, we also show how the solvent sites can be used to significantly improve ligand docking in terms of both accuracy and precision, and that accurate predictions of ligand binding free energies, along with relative ranking of ligand affinity, can be performed.

  19. A Support Vector Machine model for the prediction of proteotypic peptides for accurate mass and time proteomics

    SciTech Connect

    Webb-Robertson, Bobbie-Jo M.; Cannon, William R.; Oehmen, Christopher S.; Shah, Anuj R.; Gurumoorthi, Vidhya; Lipton, Mary S.; Waters, Katrina M.

    2008-07-01

    Motivation: The standard approach to identifying peptides based on accurate mass and elution time (AMT) compares these profiles obtained from a high resolution mass spectrometer to a database of peptides previously identified from tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS) studies. It would be advantageous, with respect to both accuracy and cost, to only search for those peptides that are detectable by MS (proteotypic). Results: We present a Support Vector Machine (SVM) model that uses a simple descriptor space based on 35 properties of amino acid content, charge, hydrophilicity, and polarity for the quantitative prediction of proteotypic peptides. Using three independently derived AMT databases (Shewanella oneidensis, Salmonella typhimurium, Yersinia pestis) for training and validation within and across species, the SVM resulted in an average accuracy measure of ~0.8 with a standard deviation of less than 0.025. Furthermore, we demonstrate that these results are achievable with a small set of 12 variables and can achieve high proteome coverage. Availability: http://omics.pnl.gov/software/STEPP.php

  20. Perceived Vulnerability to Disease Predicts Environmental Attitudes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Prokop, Pavol; Kubiatko, Milan

    2014-01-01

    Investigating predictors of environmental attitudes may bring valuable benefits in terms of improving public awareness about biodiversity degradation and increased pro-environmental behaviour. Here we used an evolutionary approach to study environmental attitudes based on disease-threat model. We hypothesized that people vulnerable to diseases may…

  1. Predictive modeling of coral disease distribution within a reef system.

    PubMed

    Williams, Gareth J; Aeby, Greta S; Cowie, Rebecca O M; Davy, Simon K

    2010-02-17

    Diseases often display complex and distinct associations with their environment due to differences in etiology, modes of transmission between hosts, and the shifting balance between pathogen virulence and host resistance. Statistical modeling has been underutilized in coral disease research to explore the spatial patterns that result from this triad of interactions. We tested the hypotheses that: 1) coral diseases show distinct associations with multiple environmental factors, 2) incorporating interactions (synergistic collinearities) among environmental variables is important when predicting coral disease spatial patterns, and 3) modeling overall coral disease prevalence (the prevalence of multiple diseases as a single proportion value) will increase predictive error relative to modeling the same diseases independently. Four coral diseases: Porites growth anomalies (PorGA), Porites tissue loss (PorTL), Porites trematodiasis (PorTrem), and Montipora white syndrome (MWS), and their interactions with 17 predictor variables were modeled using boosted regression trees (BRT) within a reef system in Hawaii. Each disease showed distinct associations with the predictors. Environmental predictors showing the strongest overall associations with the coral diseases were both biotic and abiotic. PorGA was optimally predicted by a negative association with turbidity, PorTL and MWS by declines in butterflyfish and juvenile parrotfish abundance respectively, and PorTrem by a modal relationship with Porites host cover. Incorporating interactions among predictor variables contributed to the predictive power of our models, particularly for PorTrem. Combining diseases (using overall disease prevalence as the model response), led to an average six-fold increase in cross-validation predictive deviance over modeling the diseases individually. We therefore recommend coral diseases to be modeled separately, unless known to have etiologies that respond in a similar manner to particular

  2. Predictive Modeling of Coral Disease Distribution within a Reef System

    PubMed Central

    Williams, Gareth J.; Aeby, Greta S.; Cowie, Rebecca O. M.; Davy, Simon K.

    2010-01-01

    Diseases often display complex and distinct associations with their environment due to differences in etiology, modes of transmission between hosts, and the shifting balance between pathogen virulence and host resistance. Statistical modeling has been underutilized in coral disease research to explore the spatial patterns that result from this triad of interactions. We tested the hypotheses that: 1) coral diseases show distinct associations with multiple environmental factors, 2) incorporating interactions (synergistic collinearities) among environmental variables is important when predicting coral disease spatial patterns, and 3) modeling overall coral disease prevalence (the prevalence of multiple diseases as a single proportion value) will increase predictive error relative to modeling the same diseases independently. Four coral diseases: Porites growth anomalies (PorGA), Porites tissue loss (PorTL), Porites trematodiasis (PorTrem), and Montipora white syndrome (MWS), and their interactions with 17 predictor variables were modeled using boosted regression trees (BRT) within a reef system in Hawaii. Each disease showed distinct associations with the predictors. Environmental predictors showing the strongest overall associations with the coral diseases were both biotic and abiotic. PorGA was optimally predicted by a negative association with turbidity, PorTL and MWS by declines in butterflyfish and juvenile parrotfish abundance respectively, and PorTrem by a modal relationship with Porites host cover. Incorporating interactions among predictor variables contributed to the predictive power of our models, particularly for PorTrem. Combining diseases (using overall disease prevalence as the model response), led to an average six-fold increase in cross-validation predictive deviance over modeling the diseases individually. We therefore recommend coral diseases to be modeled separately, unless known to have etiologies that respond in a similar manner to particular

  3. High IFIT1 expression predicts improved clinical outcome, and IFIT1 along with MGMT more accurately predicts prognosis in newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

    PubMed

    Zhang, Jin-Feng; Chen, Yao; Lin, Guo-Shi; Zhang, Jian-Dong; Tang, Wen-Long; Huang, Jian-Huang; Chen, Jin-Shou; Wang, Xing-Fu; Lin, Zhi-Xiong

    2016-06-01

    Interferon-induced protein with tetratricopeptide repeat 1 (IFIT1) plays a key role in growth suppression and apoptosis promotion in cancer cells. Interferon was reported to induce the expression of IFIT1 and inhibit the expression of O-6-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT).This study aimed to investigate the expression of IFIT1, the correlation between IFIT1 and MGMT, and their impact on the clinical outcome in newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The expression of IFIT1 and MGMT and their correlation were investigated in the tumor tissues from 70 patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. The effects on progression-free survival and overall survival were evaluated. Of 70 cases, 57 (81.4%) tissue samples showed high expression of IFIT1 by immunostaining. The χ(2) test indicated that the expression of IFIT1 and MGMT was negatively correlated (r = -0.288, P = .016). Univariate and multivariate analyses confirmed high IFIT1 expression as a favorable prognostic indicator for progression-free survival (P = .005 and .017) and overall survival (P = .001 and .001), respectively. Patients with 2 favorable factors (high IFIT1 and low MGMT) had an improved prognosis as compared with others. The results demonstrated significantly increased expression of IFIT1 in newly diagnosed glioblastoma tissue. The negative correlation between IFIT1 and MGMT expression may be triggered by interferon. High IFIT1 can be a predictive biomarker of favorable clinical outcome, and IFIT1 along with MGMT more accurately predicts prognosis in newly diagnosed glioblastoma.

  4. Network Biomarkers Constructed from Gene Expression and Protein-Protein Interaction Data for Accurate Prediction of Leukemia

    PubMed Central

    Yuan, Xuye; Chen, Jiajia; Lin, Yuxin; Li, Yin; Xu, Lihua; Chen, Luonan; Hua, Haiying; Shen, Bairong

    2017-01-01

    Leukemia is a leading cause of cancer deaths in the developed countries. Great efforts have been undertaken in search of diagnostic biomarkers of leukemia. However, leukemia is highly complex and heterogeneous, involving interaction among multiple molecular components. Individual molecules are not necessarily sensitive diagnostic indicators. Network biomarkers are considered to outperform individual molecules in disease characterization. We applied an integrative approach that identifies active network modules as putative biomarkers for leukemia diagnosis. We first reconstructed the leukemia-specific PPI network using protein-protein interactions from the Protein Interaction Network Analysis (PINA) and protein annotations from GeneGo. The network was further integrated with gene expression profiles to identify active modules with leukemia relevance. Finally, the candidate network-based biomarker was evaluated for the diagnosing performance. A network of 97 genes and 400 interactions was identified for accurate diagnosis of leukemia. Functional enrichment analysis revealed that the network biomarkers were enriched in pathways in cancer. The network biomarkers could discriminate leukemia samples from the normal controls more effectively than the known biomarkers. The network biomarkers provide a useful tool to diagnose leukemia and also aids in further understanding the molecular basis of leukemia. PMID:28243332

  5. A time accurate prediction of the viscous flow in a turbine stage including a rotor in motion

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shavalikul, Akamol

    accurate flow characteristics in the NGV domain and the rotor domain with less computational time and computer memory requirements. In contrast, the time accurate flow simulation can predict all unsteady flow characteristics occurring in the turbine stage, but with high computational resource requirements. (Abstract shortened by UMI.)

  6. Iofetamine I 123 single photon emission computed tomography is accurate in the diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease

    SciTech Connect

    Johnson, K.A.; Holman, B.L.; Rosen, T.J.; Nagel, J.S.; English, R.J.; Growdon, J.H. )

    1990-04-01

    To determine the diagnostic accuracy of iofetamine hydrochloride I 123 (IMP) with single photon emission computed tomography in Alzheimer's disease, we studied 58 patients with AD and 15 age-matched healthy control subjects. We used a qualitative method to assess regional IMP uptake in the entire brain and to rate image data sets as normal or abnormal without knowledge of subjects'clinical classification. The sensitivity and specificity of IMP with single photon emission computed tomography in AD were 88% and 87%, respectively. In 15 patients with mild cognitive deficits (Blessed Dementia Scale score, less than or equal to 10), sensitivity was 80%. With the use of a semiquantitative measure of regional cortical IMP uptake, the parietal lobes were the most functionally impaired in AD and the most strongly associated with the patients' Blessed Dementia Scale scores. These results indicated that IMP with single photon emission computed tomography may be a useful adjunct in the clinical diagnosis of AD in early, mild disease.

  7. Predicting Next Year's Resources--Short-Term Enrollment Forecasting for Accurate Budget Planning. AIR Forum Paper 1978.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Salley, Charles D.

    Accurate enrollment forecasts are a prerequisite for reliable budget projections. This is because tuition payments make up a significant portion of a university's revenue, and anticipated revenue is the immediate constraint on current operating expenditures. Accurate forecasts are even more critical to revenue projections when a university's…

  8. Predicting the risk of coral disease outbreak using satellite SST.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Heron, S. F.; Willis, B. L.; Skirving, W. J.; Page, C. A.; Eakin, C. M.; Miller, I. R.; Christensen, T. R.; Gledhill, D. K.; Liu, G.; Morgan, J. A.; Parker, B. A.; Strong, A. E.

    2009-05-01

    Several environmental parameters have been linked to outbreaks of coral disease. Here we describe the influence of remotely-sensed summer and winter temperatures, as well as local observations of coral cover, to predict the risk of White Syndrome disease outbreaks on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Coral disease is an emerging risk to coral reef ecosystems that is likely to escalate with ocean warming due to climate change. The aim of this work is to provide reef managers with an expert system for predicting disease risk on coral reefs as far as six months in advance of summer outbreaks.

  9. Infectious titres of sheep scrapie and bovine spongiform encephalopathy agents cannot be accurately predicted from quantitative laboratory test results.

    PubMed

    González, Lorenzo; Thorne, Leigh; Jeffrey, Martin; Martin, Stuart; Spiropoulos, John; Beck, Katy E; Lockey, Richard W; Vickery, Christopher M; Holder, Thomas; Terry, Linda

    2012-11-01

    It is widely accepted that abnormal forms of the prion protein (PrP) are the best surrogate marker for the infectious agent of prion diseases and, in practice, the detection of such disease-associated (PrP(d)) and/or protease-resistant (PrP(res)) forms of PrP is the cornerstone of diagnosis and surveillance of the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs). Nevertheless, some studies question the consistent association between infectivity and abnormal PrP detection. To address this discrepancy, 11 brain samples of sheep affected with natural scrapie or experimental bovine spongiform encephalopathy were selected on the basis of the magnitude and predominant types of PrP(d) accumulation, as shown by immunohistochemical (IHC) examination; contra-lateral hemi-brain samples were inoculated at three different dilutions into transgenic mice overexpressing ovine PrP and were also subjected to quantitative analysis by three biochemical tests (BCTs). Six samples gave 'low' infectious titres (10⁶·⁵ to 10⁶·⁷ LD₅₀ g⁻¹) and five gave 'high titres' (10⁸·¹ to ≥ 10⁸·⁷ LD₅₀ g⁻¹) and, with the exception of the Western blot analysis, those two groups tended to correspond with samples with lower PrP(d)/PrP(res) results by IHC/BCTs. However, no statistical association could be confirmed due to high individual sample variability. It is concluded that although detection of abnormal forms of PrP by laboratory methods remains useful to confirm TSE infection, infectivity titres cannot be predicted from quantitative test results, at least for the TSE sources and host PRNP genotypes used in this study. Furthermore, the near inverse correlation between infectious titres and Western blot results (high protease pre-treatment) argues for a dissociation between infectivity and PrP(res).

  10. Metabolic biomarkers for predicting cardiovascular disease

    PubMed Central

    Montgomery, Jana E; Brown, Jeremiah R

    2013-01-01

    Cardiac and peripheral vascular biomarkers are increasingly becoming targets of both research and clinical practice. As of 2008, cardiovascular-related medical care accounts for greater than 20% of all the economic costs of illness in the United States. In the age of burgeoning financial pressures on the entire health care system, never has it been more important to try to understand who is at risk for cardiovascular disease in order to prevent new events. In this paper, we will discuss the cost of cardiovascular disease to society, clarify the definition of and need for biomarkers, offer an example of a current biomarker, namely high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and finally examine the approval process for utilizing these in clinical practice. PMID:23386789

  11. Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Escott-Price, Valentina; Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon; Goate, Alison; Cruchaga, Carlos; Lambert, Jean-Charles; van Duijn, Cornelia; Maier, Wolfgang; Ramirez, Alfredo; Holmans, Peter; Jones, Lesley; Hardy, John; Seshadri, Sudha; Schellenberg, Gerard D; Amouyel, Philippe; Williams, Julie

    2015-12-01

    The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer's disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer's disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer's disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer's disease (P = 4.9 × 10(-26)). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10(-19)). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77-80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer's disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer's disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes.

  12. Staging of osteonecrosis of the jaw requires computed tomography for accurate definition of the extent of bony disease.

    PubMed

    Bedogni, Alberto; Fedele, Stefano; Bedogni, Giorgio; Scoletta, Matteo; Favia, Gianfranco; Colella, Giuseppe; Agrillo, Alessandro; Bettini, Giordana; Di Fede, Olga; Oteri, Giacomo; Fusco, Vittorio; Gabriele, Mario; Ottolenghi, Livia; Valsecchi, Stefano; Porter, Stephen; Petruzzi, Massimo; Arduino, Paolo; D'Amato, Salvatore; Ungari, Claudio; Fung Polly, Pok-Lam; Saia, Giorgia; Campisi, Giuseppina

    2014-09-01

    Management of osteonecrosis of the jaw associated with antiresorptive agents is challenging, and outcomes are unpredictable. The severity of disease is the main guide to management, and can help to predict prognosis. Most available staging systems for osteonecrosis, including the widely-used American Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons (AAOMS) system, classify severity on the basis of clinical and radiographic findings. However, clinical inspection and radiography are limited in their ability to identify the extent of necrotic bone disease compared with computed tomography (CT). We have organised a large multicentre retrospective study (known as MISSION) to investigate the agreement between the AAOMS staging system and the extent of osteonecrosis of the jaw (focal compared with diffuse involvement of bone) as detected on CT. We studied 799 patients with detailed clinical phenotyping who had CT images taken. Features of diffuse bone disease were identified on CT within all AAOMS stages (20%, 8%, 48%, and 24% of patients in stages 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively). Of the patients classified as stage 0, 110/192 (57%) had diffuse disease on CT, and about 1 in 3 with CT evidence of diffuse bone disease was misclassified by the AAOMS system as having stages 0 and 1 osteonecrosis. In addition, more than a third of patients with AAOMS stage 2 (142/405, 35%) had focal bone disease on CT. We conclude that the AAOMS staging system does not correctly identify the extent of bony disease in patients with osteonecrosis of the jaw.

  13. Applying Naive Bayesian Networks to Disease Prediction: a Systematic Review

    PubMed Central

    Langarizadeh, Mostafa; Moghbeli, Fateme

    2016-01-01

    Introduction: Naive Bayesian networks (NBNs) are one of the most effective and simplest Bayesian networks for prediction. Objective: This paper aims to review published evidence about the application of NBNs in predicting disease and it tries to show NBNs as the fundamental algorithm for the best performance in comparison with other algorithms. Methods: PubMed was electronically checked for articles published between 2005 and 2015. For characterizing eligible articles, a comprehensive electronic searching method was conducted. Inclusion criteria were determined based on NBN and its effects on disease prediction. A total of 99 articles were found. After excluding the duplicates (n= 5), the titles and abstracts of 94 articles were skimmed according to the inclusion criteria. Finally, 38 articles remained. They were reviewed in full text and 15 articles were excluded. Eventually, 23 articles were selected which met our eligibility criteria and were included in this study. Result: In this article, the use of NBN in predicting diseases was described. Finally, the results were reported in terms of Accuracy, Sensitivity, Specificity and Area under ROC curve (AUC). The last column in Table 2 shows the differences between NBNs and other algorithms. Discussion: This systematic review (23 studies, 53,725 patients) indicates that predicting diseases based on a NBN had the best performance in most diseases in comparison with the other algorithms. Finally in most cases NBN works better than other algorithms based on the reported accuracy. Conclusion: The method, termed NBNs is proposed and can efficiently construct a prediction model for disease. PMID:28077895

  14. Population Synthesis in the Blue. IV. Accurate Model Predictions for Lick Indices and UBV Colors in Single Stellar Populations

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schiavon, Ricardo P.

    2007-07-01

    We present a new set of model predictions for 16 Lick absorption line indices from Hδ through Fe5335 and UBV colors for single stellar populations with ages ranging between 1 and 15 Gyr, [Fe/H] ranging from -1.3 to +0.3, and variable abundance ratios. The models are based on accurate stellar parameters for the Jones library stars and a new set of fitting functions describing the behavior of line indices as a function of effective temperature, surface gravity, and iron abundance. The abundances of several key elements in the library stars have been obtained from the literature in order to characterize the abundance pattern of the stellar library, thus allowing us to produce model predictions for any set of abundance ratios desired. We develop a method to estimate mean ages and abundances of iron, carbon, nitrogen, magnesium, and calcium that explores the sensitivity of the various indices modeled to those parameters. The models are compared to high-S/N data for Galactic clusters spanning the range of ages, metallicities, and abundance patterns of interest. Essentially all line indices are matched when the known cluster parameters are adopted as input. Comparing the models to high-quality data for galaxies in the nearby universe, we reproduce previous results regarding the enhancement of light elements and the spread in the mean luminosity-weighted ages of early-type galaxies. When the results from the analysis of blue and red indices are contrasted, we find good consistency in the [Fe/H] that is inferred from different Fe indices. Applying our method to estimate mean ages and abundances from stacked SDSS spectra of early-type galaxies brighter than L*, we find mean luminosity-weighed ages of the order of ~8 Gyr and iron abundances slightly below solar. Abundance ratios, [X/Fe], tend to be higher than solar and are positively correlated with galaxy luminosity. Of all elements, nitrogen is the more strongly correlated with galaxy luminosity, which seems to indicate

  15. Do Skilled Elementary Teachers Hold Scientific Conceptions and Can They Accurately Predict the Type and Source of Students' Preconceptions of Electric Circuits?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lin, Jing-Wen

    2016-01-01

    Holding scientific conceptions and having the ability to accurately predict students' preconceptions are a prerequisite for science teachers to design appropriate constructivist-oriented learning experiences. This study explored the types and sources of students' preconceptions of electric circuits. First, 438 grade 3 (9 years old) students were…

  16. Prediction and Informative Risk Factor Selection of Bone Diseases.

    PubMed

    Li, Hui; Li, Xiaoyi; Ramanathan, Murali; Zhang, Aidong

    2015-01-01

    With the booming of healthcare industry and the overwhelming amount of electronic health records (EHRs) shared by healthcare institutions and practitioners, we take advantage of EHR data to develop an effective disease risk management model that not only models the progression of the disease, but also predicts the risk of the disease for early disease control or prevention. Existing models for answering these questions usually fall into two categories: the expert knowledge based model or the handcrafted feature set based model. To fully utilize the whole EHR data, we will build a framework to construct an integrated representation of features from all available risk factors in the EHR data and use these integrated features to effectively predict osteoporosis and bone fractures. We will also develop a framework for informative risk factor selection of bone diseases. A pair of models for two contrast cohorts (e.g., diseased patients versus non-diseased patients) will be established to discriminate their characteristics and find the most informative risk factors. Several empirical results on a real bone disease data set show that the proposed framework can successfully predict bone diseases and select informative risk factors that are beneficial and useful to guide clinical decisions.

  17. A prediction model for progressive disease in systemic sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Meijs, Jessica; Schouffoer, Anne A; Ajmone Marsan, Nina; Stijnen, Theo; Putter, Hein; Ninaber, Maarten K; Huizinga, Tom W J; de Vries-Bouwstra, Jeska K

    2015-01-01

    Objective To develop a model that assesses the risk for progressive disease in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) over the short term, in order to guide clinical management. Methods Baseline characteristics and 1 year follow-up results of 163 patients with SSc referred to a multidisciplinary healthcare programme were evaluated. Progressive disease was defined as: death, ≥10% decrease in forced vital capacity, ≥15% decrease in diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide, ≥10% decrease in body weight, ≥30% decrease in estimated-glomerular filtration rate, ≥30% increase in modified Rodnan Skin Score (with Δ≥5) or ≥0.25 increase in Scleroderma Health Assessment Questionnaire. The number of patients with progressive disease was determined. Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to assess the probability of progressive disease for each individual patient. Performance of the prediction model was evaluated using a calibration plot and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results 63 patients had progressive disease, including 8 patients who died ≤18 months after first evaluation. Multivariable analysis showed that friction rubs, proximal muscular weakness and decreased maximum oxygen uptake as % predicted, adjusted for age, gender and use of immunosuppressive therapy at baseline, were significantly associated with progressive disease. Using the prediction model, the predicted chance for progressive disease increased from a pretest chance of 37% to 67–89%. Conclusions Using the prediction model, the chance for progressive disease for individual patients could be doubled. Friction rubs, proximal muscular weakness and maximum oxygen uptake as % predicted were identified as relevant parameters. PMID:26688749

  18. Inductive matrix completion for predicting gene–disease associations

    PubMed Central

    Natarajan, Nagarajan; Dhillon, Inderjit S.

    2014-01-01

    Motivation: Most existing methods for predicting causal disease genes rely on specific type of evidence, and are therefore limited in terms of applicability. More often than not, the type of evidence available for diseases varies—for example, we may know linked genes, keywords associated with the disease obtained by mining text, or co-occurrence of disease symptoms in patients. Similarly, the type of evidence available for genes varies—for example, specific microarray probes convey information only for certain sets of genes. In this article, we apply a novel matrix-completion method called Inductive Matrix Completion to the problem of predicting gene-disease associations; it combines multiple types of evidence (features) for diseases and genes to learn latent factors that explain the observed gene–disease associations. We construct features from different biological sources such as microarray expression data and disease-related textual data. A crucial advantage of the method is that it is inductive; it can be applied to diseases not seen at training time, unlike traditional matrix-completion approaches and network-based inference methods that are transductive. Results: Comparison with state-of-the-art methods on diseases from the Online Mendelian Inheritance in Man (OMIM) database shows that the proposed approach is substantially better—it has close to one-in-four chance of recovering a true association in the top 100 predictions, compared to the recently proposed Catapult method (second best) that has <15% chance. We demonstrate that the inductive method is particularly effective for a query disease with no previously known gene associations, and for predicting novel genes, i.e. genes that are previously not linked to diseases. Thus the method is capable of predicting novel genes even for well-characterized diseases. We also validate the novelty of predictions by evaluating the method on recently reported OMIM associations and on associations recently

  19. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future.

    PubMed

    Schrodi, Steven J; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Shan, Ying; Tromp, Gerard; Sninsky, John J; Callear, Amy P; Carter, Tonia C; Ye, Zhan; Haines, Jonathan L; Brilliant, Murray H; Crane, Paul K; Smelser, Diane T; Elston, Robert C; Weeks, Daniel E

    2014-01-01

    Translation of results from genetic findings to inform medical practice is a highly anticipated goal of human genetics. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the role of genetics in medically-relevant prediction. Germline genetics presages disease onset and therefore can contribute prognostic signals that augment laboratory tests and clinical features. As such, the impact of genetic-based predictive models on clinical decisions and therapy choice could be profound. However, given that (i) medical traits result from a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors, (ii) the underlying genetic architectures for susceptibility to common diseases are not well-understood, and (iii) replicable susceptibility alleles, in combination, account for only a moderate amount of disease heritability, there are substantial challenges to constructing and implementing genetic risk prediction models with high utility. In spite of these challenges, concerted progress has continued in this area with an ongoing accumulation of studies that identify disease predisposing genotypes. Several statistical approaches with the aim of predicting disease have been published. Here we summarize the current state of disease susceptibility mapping and pharmacogenetics efforts for risk prediction, describe methods used to construct and evaluate genetic-based predictive models, and discuss applications.

  20. Genetic-based prediction of disease traits: prediction is very difficult, especially about the future†

    PubMed Central

    Schrodi, Steven J.; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Shan, Ying; Tromp, Gerard; Sninsky, John J.; Callear, Amy P.; Carter, Tonia C.; Ye, Zhan; Haines, Jonathan L.; Brilliant, Murray H.; Crane, Paul K.; Smelser, Diane T.; Elston, Robert C.; Weeks, Daniel E.

    2014-01-01

    Translation of results from genetic findings to inform medical practice is a highly anticipated goal of human genetics. The aim of this paper is to review and discuss the role of genetics in medically-relevant prediction. Germline genetics presages disease onset and therefore can contribute prognostic signals that augment laboratory tests and clinical features. As such, the impact of genetic-based predictive models on clinical decisions and therapy choice could be profound. However, given that (i) medical traits result from a complex interplay between genetic and environmental factors, (ii) the underlying genetic architectures for susceptibility to common diseases are not well-understood, and (iii) replicable susceptibility alleles, in combination, account for only a moderate amount of disease heritability, there are substantial challenges to constructing and implementing genetic risk prediction models with high utility. In spite of these challenges, concerted progress has continued in this area with an ongoing accumulation of studies that identify disease predisposing genotypes. Several statistical approaches with the aim of predicting disease have been published. Here we summarize the current state of disease susceptibility mapping and pharmacogenetics efforts for risk prediction, describe methods used to construct and evaluate genetic-based predictive models, and discuss applications. PMID:24917882

  1. Prediction of Dengue Outbreaks Based on Disease Surveillance and Meteorological Data.

    PubMed

    Ramadona, Aditya Lia; Lazuardi, Lutfan; Hii, Yien Ling; Holmner, Åsa; Kusnanto, Hari; Rocklöv, Joacim

    2016-01-01

    Research is needed to create early warnings of dengue outbreaks to inform stakeholders and control the disease. This analysis composes of a comparative set of prediction models including only meteorological variables; only lag variables of disease surveillance; as well as combinations of meteorological and lag disease surveillance variables. Generalized linear regression models were used to fit relationships between the predictor variables and the dengue surveillance data as outcome variable on the basis of data from 2001 to 2010. Data from 2011 to 2013 were used for external validation purposed of prediction accuracy of the model. Model fit were evaluated based on prediction performance in terms of detecting epidemics, and for number of predicted cases according to RMSE and SRMSE, as well as AIC. An optimal combination of meteorology and autoregressive lag terms of dengue counts in the past were identified best in predicting dengue incidence and the occurrence of dengue epidemics. Past data on disease surveillance, as predictor alone, visually gave reasonably accurate results for outbreak periods, but not for non-outbreaks periods. A combination of surveillance and meteorological data including lag patterns up to a few years in the past showed most predictive of dengue incidence and occurrence in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. The external validation showed poorer results than the internal validation, but still showed skill in detecting outbreaks up to two months ahead. Prior studies support the fact that past meteorology and surveillance data can be predictive of dengue. However, to a less extent has prior research shown how the longer-term past disease incidence data, up to years, can play a role in predicting outbreaks in the coming years, possibly indicating cross-immunity status of the population.

  2. Challenges in Real-Time Prediction of Infectious Disease: A Case Study of Dengue in Thailand

    PubMed Central

    Lauer, Stephen A.; Sakrejda, Krzysztof; Iamsirithaworn, Sopon; Hinjoy, Soawapak; Suangtho, Paphanij; Suthachana, Suthanun; Clapham, Hannah E.; Salje, Henrik; Cummings, Derek A. T.; Lessler, Justin

    2016-01-01

    Epidemics of communicable diseases place a huge burden on public health infrastructures across the world. Producing accurate and actionable forecasts of infectious disease incidence at short and long time scales will improve public health response to outbreaks. However, scientists and public health officials face many obstacles in trying to create such real-time forecasts of infectious disease incidence. Dengue is a mosquito-borne virus that annually infects over 400 million people worldwide. We developed a real-time forecasting model for dengue hemorrhagic fever in the 77 provinces of Thailand. We created a practical computational infrastructure that generated multi-step predictions of dengue incidence in Thai provinces every two weeks throughout 2014. These predictions show mixed performance across provinces, out-performing seasonal baseline models in over half of provinces at a 1.5 month horizon. Additionally, to assess the degree to which delays in case reporting make long-range prediction a challenging task, we compared the performance of our real-time predictions with predictions made with fully reported data. This paper provides valuable lessons for the implementation of real-time predictions in the context of public health decision making. PMID:27304062

  3. Noncontrast computed tomography can predict the outcome of shockwave lithotripsy via accurate stone measurement and abdominal fat distribution determination.

    PubMed

    Geng, Jiun-Hung; Tu, Hung-Pin; Shih, Paul Ming-Chen; Shen, Jung-Tsung; Jang, Mei-Yu; Wu, Wen-Jen; Li, Ching-Chia; Chou, Yii-Her; Juan, Yung-Shun

    2015-01-01

    Urolithiasis is a common disease of the urinary system. Extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) has become one of the standard treatments for renal and ureteral stones; however, the success rates range widely and failure of stone disintegration may cause additional outlay, alternative procedures, and even complications. We used the data available from noncontrast abdominal computed tomography (NCCT) to evaluate the impact of stone parameters and abdominal fat distribution on calculus-free rates following SWL. We retrospectively reviewed 328 patients who had urinary stones and had undergone SWL from August 2012 to August 2013. All of them received pre-SWL NCCT; 1 month after SWL, radiography was arranged to evaluate the condition of the fragments. These patients were classified into stone-free group and residual stone group. Unenhanced computed tomography variables, including stone attenuation, abdominal fat area, and skin-to-stone distance (SSD) were analyzed. In all, 197 (60%) were classified as stone-free and 132 (40%) as having residual stone. The mean ages were 49.35 ± 13.22 years and 55.32 ± 13.52 years, respectively. On univariate analysis, age, stone size, stone surface area, stone attenuation, SSD, total fat area (TFA), abdominal circumference, serum creatinine, and the severity of hydronephrosis revealed statistical significance between these two groups. From multivariate logistic regression analysis, the independent parameters impacting SWL outcomes were stone size, stone attenuation, TFA, and serum creatinine. [Adjusted odds ratios and (95% confidence intervals): 9.49 (3.72-24.20), 2.25 (1.22-4.14), 2.20 (1.10-4.40), and 2.89 (1.35-6.21) respectively, all p < 0.05]. In the present study, stone size, stone attenuation, TFA and serum creatinine were four independent predictors for stone-free rates after SWL. These findings suggest that pretreatment NCCT may predict the outcomes after SWL. Consequently, we can use these predictors for selecting

  4. PBHMDA: Path-Based Human Microbe-Disease Association Prediction

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Zhi-An; Chen, Xing; Zhu, Zexuan; Liu, Hongsheng; Yan, Gui-Ying; You, Zhu-Hong; Wen, Zhenkun

    2017-01-01

    With the advance of sequencing technology and microbiology, the microorganisms have been found to be closely related to various important human diseases. The increasing identification of human microbe-disease associations offers important insights into the underlying disease mechanism understanding from the perspective of human microbes, which are greatly helpful for investigating pathogenesis, promoting early diagnosis and improving precision medicine. However, the current knowledge in this domain is still limited and far from complete. Here, we present the computational model of Path-Based Human Microbe-Disease Association prediction (PBHMDA) based on the integration of known microbe-disease associations and the Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity for microbes and diseases. A special depth-first search algorithm was implemented to traverse all possible paths between microbes and diseases for inferring the most possible disease-related microbes. As a result, PBHMDA obtained a reliable prediction performance with AUCs (The area under ROC curve) of 0.9169 and 0.8767 in the frameworks of both global and local leave-one-out cross validations, respectively. Based on 5-fold cross validation, average AUCs of 0.9082 ± 0.0061 further demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed model. For the case studies of liver cirrhosis, type 1 diabetes, and asthma, 9, 7, and 9 out of predicted microbes in the top 10 have been confirmed by previously published experimental literatures, respectively. We have publicly released the prioritized microbe-disease associations, which may help to select the most potential pairs for further guiding the experimental confirmation. In conclusion, PBHMDA may have potential to boost the discovery of novel microbe-disease associations and aid future research efforts toward microbe involvement in human disease mechanism. The code and data of PBHMDA is freely available at http://www.escience.cn/system/file?fileId=85214. PMID:28275370

  5. PBHMDA: Path-Based Human Microbe-Disease Association Prediction.

    PubMed

    Huang, Zhi-An; Chen, Xing; Zhu, Zexuan; Liu, Hongsheng; Yan, Gui-Ying; You, Zhu-Hong; Wen, Zhenkun

    2017-01-01

    With the advance of sequencing technology and microbiology, the microorganisms have been found to be closely related to various important human diseases. The increasing identification of human microbe-disease associations offers important insights into the underlying disease mechanism understanding from the perspective of human microbes, which are greatly helpful for investigating pathogenesis, promoting early diagnosis and improving precision medicine. However, the current knowledge in this domain is still limited and far from complete. Here, we present the computational model of Path-Based Human Microbe-Disease Association prediction (PBHMDA) based on the integration of known microbe-disease associations and the Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity for microbes and diseases. A special depth-first search algorithm was implemented to traverse all possible paths between microbes and diseases for inferring the most possible disease-related microbes. As a result, PBHMDA obtained a reliable prediction performance with AUCs (The area under ROC curve) of 0.9169 and 0.8767 in the frameworks of both global and local leave-one-out cross validations, respectively. Based on 5-fold cross validation, average AUCs of 0.9082 ± 0.0061 further demonstrated the efficiency of the proposed model. For the case studies of liver cirrhosis, type 1 diabetes, and asthma, 9, 7, and 9 out of predicted microbes in the top 10 have been confirmed by previously published experimental literatures, respectively. We have publicly released the prioritized microbe-disease associations, which may help to select the most potential pairs for further guiding the experimental confirmation. In conclusion, PBHMDA may have potential to boost the discovery of novel microbe-disease associations and aid future research efforts toward microbe involvement in human disease mechanism. The code and data of PBHMDA is freely available at http://www.escience.cn/system/file?fileId=85214.

  6. PSSP-RFE: accurate prediction of protein structural class by recursive feature extraction from PSI-BLAST profile, physical-chemical property and functional annotations.

    PubMed

    Li, Liqi; Cui, Xiang; Yu, Sanjiu; Zhang, Yuan; Luo, Zhong; Yang, Hua; Zhou, Yue; Zheng, Xiaoqi

    2014-01-01

    Protein structure prediction is critical to functional annotation of the massively accumulated biological sequences, which prompts an imperative need for the development of high-throughput technologies. As a first and key step in protein structure prediction, protein structural class prediction becomes an increasingly challenging task. Amongst most homological-based approaches, the accuracies of protein structural class prediction are sufficiently high for high similarity datasets, but still far from being satisfactory for low similarity datasets, i.e., below 40% in pairwise sequence similarity. Therefore, we present a novel method for accurate and reliable protein structural class prediction for both high and low similarity datasets. This method is based on Support Vector Machine (SVM) in conjunction with integrated features from position-specific score matrix (PSSM), PROFEAT and Gene Ontology (GO). A feature selection approach, SVM-RFE, is also used to rank the integrated feature vectors through recursively removing the feature with the lowest ranking score. The definitive top features selected by SVM-RFE are input into the SVM engines to predict the structural class of a query protein. To validate our method, jackknife tests were applied to seven widely used benchmark datasets, reaching overall accuracies between 84.61% and 99.79%, which are significantly higher than those achieved by state-of-the-art tools. These results suggest that our method could serve as an accurate and cost-effective alternative to existing methods in protein structural classification, especially for low similarity datasets.

  7. Using predictive modeling to evaluate the financial effect of disease management.

    PubMed

    Whitlock, Terry; Johnston, Kenton

    2006-09-01

    The objective of this study was to use predictive modeling to evaluate a disease management (DM) program's effect on a chronically ill population. Specifically, diagnostic cost grouping (DCG) predictive modeling was utilized to measure the financial effect of DM in populations of individuals with congestive heart failure and coronary artery disease. The literature of current practices regarding DM's financial effect measurement was reviewed and critiqued--especially with reference to the population-based pre-post method. The time period for the present study is three years, and the variables of interest are financial metrics. Claims data and DM program-specific data covering the 24-month period of 2001 to 2002 and the 24-month period of 2002 to 2003 were analyzed. The mean differences between DCG predicted and actual total claims costs in 2002 and in 2003 were computed. Inflation factors, based on actual health plan population experience for the populations in question, were developed and applied to accurately evaluate financial effect. The preliminary findings suggest that a study design utilizing DCG predictive modeling in evaluating DM program financial impact provides more accurate results compared with the population-based pre-post method currently favored by DM companies.

  8. Accurate and computationally efficient prediction of thermochemical properties of biomolecules using the generalized connectivity-based hierarchy.

    PubMed

    Sengupta, Arkajyoti; Ramabhadran, Raghunath O; Raghavachari, Krishnan

    2014-08-14

    In this study we have used the connectivity-based hierarchy (CBH) method to derive accurate heats of formation of a range of biomolecules, 18 amino acids and 10 barbituric acid/uracil derivatives. The hierarchy is based on the connectivity of the different atoms in a large molecule. It results in error-cancellation reaction schemes that are automated, general, and can be readily used for a broad range of organic molecules and biomolecules. Herein, we first locate stable conformational and tautomeric forms of these biomolecules using an accurate level of theory (viz. CCSD(T)/6-311++G(3df,2p)). Subsequently, the heats of formation of the amino acids are evaluated using the CBH-1 and CBH-2 schemes and routinely employed density functionals or wave function-based methods. The calculated heats of formation obtained herein using modest levels of theory and are in very good agreement with those obtained using more expensive W1-F12 and W2-F12 methods on amino acids and G3 results on barbituric acid derivatives. Overall, the present study (a) highlights the small effect of including multiple conformers in determining the heats of formation of biomolecules and (b) in concurrence with previous CBH studies, proves that use of the more effective error-cancelling isoatomic scheme (CBH-2) results in more accurate heats of formation with modestly sized basis sets along with common density functionals or wave function-based methods.

  9. Predicting disease trait with genomic data: a composite kernel approach.

    PubMed

    Yang, Haitao; Li, Shaoyu; Cao, Hongyan; Zhang, Chichen; Cui, Yuehua

    2016-06-02

    With the advancement of biotechniques, a vast amount of genomic data is generated with no limit. Predicting a disease trait based on these data offers a cost-effective and time-efficient way for early disease screening. Here we proposed a composite kernel partial least squares (CKPLS) regression model for quantitative disease trait prediction focusing on genomic data. It can efficiently capture nonlinear relationships among features compared with linear learning algorithms such as Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator or ridge regression. We proposed to optimize the kernel parameters and kernel weights with the genetic algorithm (GA). In addition to improved performance for parameter optimization, the proposed GA-CKPLS approach also has better learning capacity and generalization ability compared with single kernel-based KPLS method as well as other nonlinear prediction models such as the support vector regression. Extensive simulation studies demonstrated that GA-CKPLS had better prediction performance than its counterparts under different scenarios. The utility of the method was further demonstrated through two case studies. Our method provides an efficient quantitative platform for disease trait prediction based on increasing volume of omics data.

  10. FDG-PET measurement is more accurate than neuropsychological assessments to predict global cognitive deterioration in patients with mild cognitive impairment.

    PubMed

    Chételat, Gaël; Eustache, Francis; Viader, Fausto; De La Sayette, Vincent; Pélerin, Alice; Mézenge, Florence; Hannequin, Didier; Dupuy, Benoît; Baron, Jean-Claude; Desgranges, Béatrice

    2005-02-01

    The accurate prediction, at a pre-dementia stage of Alzheimer's disease (AD), of the subsequent clinical evolution of patients would be a major breakthrough from both therapeutic and research standpoints. Amnestic mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is presently the most common reference to address the pre-dementia stage of AD. However, previous longitudinal studies on patients with MCI assessing neuropsychological and PET markers of future conversion to AD are sparse and yield discrepant findings, while a comprehensive comparison of the relative accuracy of these two categories of measure is still lacking. In the present study, we assessed the global cognitive decline as measured by the Mattis scale in 18 patients with amnestic MCI over an 18-month follow-up period, studying which subtest of this scale showed significant deterioration over time. Using baseline measurements from neuropsychological evaluation of memory and PET, we then assessed significant markers of global cognitive change, that is, percent annual change in the Mattis scale total score, and searched for the best predictor of this global cognitive decline. Altogether, our results revealed significant decline over the 18-month follow-up period in the total score and the verbal initiation and memory-recall subscores of the Mattis scale. The percent annual change in the total Mattis score significantly correlated with age and baseline performances in delayed episodic memory recall as well as semantic autobiographical and category word fluencies. Regarding functional imaging, significant correlations were also found with baseline PET values in the right temporo-parietal and medial frontal areas. Age and right temporo-parietal PET values were the most significant predictors of subsequent global cognitive decline, and the only ones to survive stepwise regression analyses. Our findings are consistent with previous works showing predominant delayed recall and semantic memory impairment at a pre-dementia stage

  11. The use and role of predictive systems in disease management.

    PubMed

    Gent, David H; Mahaffee, Walter F; McRoberts, Neil; Pfender, William F

    2013-01-01

    Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. With a few exceptions, these systems typically do not have direct sustained use by growers. Rather, their impact is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The degree to which a system is consulted depends on the amount of perceived new, actionable information that is consistent with the objectives of the user. Often this involves avoiding risks associated with costly disease outbreaks. Adoption is sensitive to the correspondence between the information a system delivers and the information needed to manage a particular pathosystem at an acceptable financial risk; details of the approach used to predict disease risk are less important. The continuing challenge for researchers is to construct tools relevant to farmers and their advisers that improve upon their current management skill. This goal requires an appreciation of growers' decision calculus in managing disease problems and, more broadly, their overall farm enterprise management.

  12. Plasma proteins predict conversion to dementia from prodromal disease

    PubMed Central

    Hye, Abdul; Riddoch-Contreras, Joanna; Baird, Alison L.; Ashton, Nicholas J.; Bazenet, Chantal; Leung, Rufina; Westman, Eric; Simmons, Andrew; Dobson, Richard; Sattlecker, Martina; Lupton, Michelle; Lunnon, Katie; Keohane, Aoife; Ward, Malcolm; Pike, Ian; Zucht, Hans Dieter; Pepin, Danielle; Zheng, Wei; Tunnicliffe, Alan; Richardson, Jill; Gauthier, Serge; Soininen, Hilkka; Kłoszewska, Iwona; Mecocci, Patrizia; Tsolaki, Magda; Vellas, Bruno; Lovestone, Simon

    2014-01-01

    Background The study aimed to validate previously discovered plasma biomarkers associated with AD, using a design based on imaging measures as surrogate for disease severity and assess their prognostic value in predicting conversion to dementia. Methods Three multicenter cohorts of cognitively healthy elderly, mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and AD participants with standardized clinical assessments and structural neuroimaging measures were used. Twenty-six candidate proteins were quantified in 1148 subjects using multiplex (xMAP) assays. Results Sixteen proteins correlated with disease severity and cognitive decline. Strongest associations were in the MCI group with a panel of 10 proteins predicting progression to AD (accuracy 87%, sensitivity 85%, and specificity 88%). Conclusions We have identified 10 plasma proteins strongly associated with disease severity and disease progression. Such markers may be useful for patient selection for clinical trials and assessment of patients with predisease subjective memory complaints. PMID:25012867

  13. Accuracy Improvement for Predicting Parkinson’s Disease Progression

    PubMed Central

    Nilashi, Mehrbakhsh; Ibrahim, Othman; Ahani, Ali

    2016-01-01

    Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a member of a larger group of neuromotor diseases marked by the progressive death of dopamineproducing cells in the brain. Providing computational tools for Parkinson disease using a set of data that contains medical information is very desirable for alleviating the symptoms that can help the amount of people who want to discover the risk of disease at an early stage. This paper proposes a new hybrid intelligent system for the prediction of PD progression using noise removal, clustering and prediction methods. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Expectation Maximization (EM) are respectively employed to address the multi-collinearity problems in the experimental datasets and clustering the data. We then apply Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Support Vector Regression (SVR) for prediction of PD progression. Experimental results on public Parkinson’s datasets show that the proposed method remarkably improves the accuracy of prediction of PD progression. The hybrid intelligent system can assist medical practitioners in the healthcare practice for early detection of Parkinson disease. PMID:27686748

  14. Using Earth Observations to Understand and Predict Infectious Diseases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Soebiyanto, Radina P.; Kiang, Richard

    2015-01-01

    This presentation discusses the processes from data collection and processing to analysis involved in unraveling patterns between disease outbreaks and the surrounding environment and meteorological conditions. We used these patterns to estimate when and where disease outbreaks will occur. As a case study, we will present our work on assessing the relationship between meteorological conditions and influenza in Central America. Our work represents the discovery, prescriptive and predictive aspects of data analytics.

  15. Scoring multiple features to predict drug disease associations using information fusion and aggregation.

    PubMed

    Moghadam, H; Rahgozar, M; Gharaghani, S

    2016-08-01

    Prediction of drug-disease associations is one of the current fields in drug repositioning that has turned into a challenging topic in pharmaceutical science. Several available computational methods use network-based and machine learning approaches to reposition old drugs for new indications. However, they often ignore features of drugs and diseases as well as the priority and importance of each feature, relation, or interactions between features and the degree of uncertainty. When predicting unknown drug-disease interactions there are diverse data sources and multiple features available that can provide more accurate and reliable results. This information can be collectively mined using data fusion methods and aggregation operators. Therefore, we can use the feature fusion method to make high-level features. We have proposed a computational method named scored mean kernel fusion (SMKF), which uses a new method to score the average aggregation operator called scored mean. To predict novel drug indications, this method systematically combines multiple features related to drugs or diseases at two levels: the drug-drug level and the drug-disease level. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of drug and disease features as well as data fusion to predict drug-disease interactions. The method was validated against a well-established drug-disease gold-standard dataset. When compared with the available methods, our proposed method outperformed them and competed well in performance with area under cover (AUC) of 0.91, F-measure of 84.9% and Matthews correlation coefficient of 70.31%.

  16. Development of Regional Models that Use Meteorological Variables for Predicting Stripe Rust Disease on Winter Wheat.

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Melugin Coakley, Stella; Boyd, William S.; Line, Roland F.

    1984-08-01

    Meteorological variables can be used to predict stripe rust, a disease of wheat caused by Puccinia striiformis West., at Lind, Pullman, and Walla Walla, Washington and Pendleton, Oregon in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. Regional models developed using different methodologies are described and evaluated for accuracy. Disease intensity data, collected from 1968 to 1981, were converted to a 0-9 disease index (DI) and were used as the dependent variable in regression analysis. Meteorological data were expressed as standardized negative degree days (NDDZ) accumulated during December and January, the Julian date of spring (JDS) [defined as the date when 40 or more positive degree days (PDD) accumulated during the subsequent 14 days] and PDD for the 80-day period after the JDS. In one of the regional models, NDDZ was accumulated for adjusted time periods at sites other than Pullman. Mallow's Cp criterion was used to evaluate the regression equations with different numbers of independent variables. The most accurate model uses NDDZ and JDS as the independent variables. The models were cross-validated by randomly removing 2 years' data and reformulating the model based on the remaining data; the new model was then used to compare actual and predicted DI. Predicted DI was within one standard error of the actual DI 60% of the time. Incorrect predictions occurred during years when spring was unusually favorable or unfavorable for disease development. The methodology described is applicable to developing statistical models relating other pest occurrences to meteorological conditions.

  17. Kidney Disease and the Nexus of Chronic Kidney Disease and Acute Kidney Injury: The Role of Novel Biomarkers as Early and Accurate Diagnostics.

    PubMed

    Yerramilli, Murthy; Farace, Giosi; Quinn, John; Yerramilli, Maha

    2016-11-01

    Chronic kidney disease (CKD) and acute kidney injury (AKI) are interconnected and the presence of one is a risk for the other. CKD is an important predictor of AKI after exposure to nephrotoxic drugs or major surgery, whereas persistent or repetitive injury could result in the progression of CKD. This brings new perspectives to the diagnosis and monitoring of kidney diseases highlighting the need for a panel of kidney-specific biomarkers that reflect functional as well as structural damage and recovery, predict potential risk and provide prognosis. This article discusses the kidney-specific biomarkers, symmetric dimethylarginine (SDMA), clusterin, cystatin B, and inosine.

  18. Longitudinal measurement and hierarchical classification framework for the prediction of Alzheimer’s disease

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Meiyan; Yang, Wei; Feng, Qianjin; Chen, Wufan; Weiner, Michael W.; Aisen, Paul; Petersen, Ronald; Jack, Clifford R.; Jagust, William; Trojanowki, John Q.; Toga, Arthur W.; Beckett, Laurel; Green, Robert C.; Saykin, Andrew J.; Morris, John; Shaw, Leslie M.; Kaye, Jeffrey; Quinn, Joseph; Silbert, Lisa; Lind, Betty; Carter, Raina; Dolen, Sara; Schneider, Lon S.; Pawluczyk, Sonia; Beccera, Mauricio; Teodoro, Liberty; Spann, Bryan M.; Brewer, James; Vanderswag, Helen; Fleisher, Adam; Heidebrink, Judith L.; Lord, Joanne L.; Mason, Sara S.; Albers, Colleen S.; Knopman, David; Johnson, Kris; Doody, Rachelle S.; Villanueva-Meyer, Javier; Chowdhury, Munir; Rountree, Susan; Dang, Mimi; Stern, Yaakov; Honig, Lawrence S.; Bell, Karen L.; Ances, Beau; Morris, John C.; Carroll, Maria; Creech, Mary L.; Franklin, Erin; Mintun, Mark A.; Schneider, Stacy; Oliver, Angela; Marson, Daniel; Griffith, Randall; Clark, David; Geldmacher, David; Brockington, John; Roberson, Erik; Love, Marissa Natelson; Grossman, Hillel; Mitsis, Effie; Shah, Raj C.; deToledo-Morrell, Leyla; Duara, Ranjan; Varon, Daniel; Greig, Maria T.; Roberts, Peggy; Albert, Marilyn; Onyike, Chiadi; D’Agostino, Daniel; Kielb, Stephanie; Galvin, James E.; Cerbone, Brittany; Michel, Christina A.; Pogorelec, Dana M.; Rusinek, Henry; de Leon, Mony J.; Glodzik, Lidia; De Santi, Susan; Doraiswamy, P. Murali; Petrella, Jeffrey R.; Borges-Neto, Salvador; Wong, Terence Z.; Coleman, Edward; Smith, Charles D.; Jicha, Greg; Hardy, Peter; Sinha, Partha; Oates, Elizabeth; Conrad, Gary; Porsteinsson, Anton P.; Goldstein, Bonnie S.; Martin, Kim; Makino, Kelly M.; Ismail, M. Saleem; Brand, Connie; Mulnard, Ruth A.; Thai, Gaby; Mc-Adams-Ortiz, Catherine; Womack, Kyle; Mathews, Dana; Quiceno, Mary; Levey, Allan I.; Lah, James J.; Cellar, Janet S.; Burns, Jeffrey M.; Swerdlow, Russell H.; Brooks, William M.; Apostolova, Liana; Tingus, Kathleen; Woo, Ellen; Silverman, Daniel H. S.; Lu, Po H.; Bartzokis, George; Graff-Radford, Neill R.; Parfitt, Francine; Kendall, Tracy; Johnson, Heather; Farlow, Martin R.; Hake, Ann Marie; Matthews, Brandy R.; Brosch, Jared R.; Herring, Scott; Hunt, Cynthia; van Dyck, Christopher H.; Carson, Richard E.; MacAvoy, Martha G.; Varma, Pradeep; Chertkow, Howard; Bergman, Howard; Hosein, Chris; Black, Sandra; Stefanovic, Bojana; Caldwell, Curtis; Hsiung, Ging-Yuek Robin; Feldman, Howard; Mudge, Benita; Assaly, Michele; Finger, Elizabeth; Pasternack, Stephen; Rachisky, Irina; Trost, Dick; Kertesz, Andrew; Bernick, Charles; Munic, Donna; Mesulam, Marek Marsel; Lipowski, Kristine; Weintraub, Sandra; Bonakdarpour, Borna; Kerwin, Diana; Wu, Chuang-Kuo; Johnson, Nancy; Sadowsky, Carl; Villena, Teresa; Turner, Raymond Scott; Johnson, Kathleen; Reynolds, Brigid; Sperling, Reisa A.; Johnson, Keith A.; Marshall, Gad; Yesavage, Jerome; Taylor, Joy L.; Lane, Barton; Rosen, Allyson; Tinklenberg, Jared; Sabbagh, Marwan N.; Belden, Christine M.; Jacobson, Sandra A.; Sirrel, Sherye A.; Kowall, Neil; Killiany, Ronald; Budson, Andrew E.; Norbash, Alexander; Johnson, Patricia Lynn; Obisesan, Thomas O.; Wolday, Saba; Allard, Joanne; Lerner, Alan; Ogrocki, Paula; Tatsuoka, Curtis; Fatica, Parianne; Fletcher, Evan; Maillard, Pauline; Olichney, John; DeCarli, Charles; Carmichael, Owen; Kittur, Smita; Borrie, Michael; Lee, T-Y; Bartha, Rob; Johnson, Sterling; Asthana, Sanjay; Carlsson, Cynthia M.; Potkin, Steven G.; Preda, Adrian; Nguyen, Dana; Tariot, Pierre; Burke, Anna; Trncic, Nadira; Fleisher, Adam; Reeder, Stephanie; Bates, Vernice; Capote, Horacio; Rainka, Michelle; Scharre, Douglas W.; Kataki, Maria; Adeli, Anahita; Zimmerman, Earl A.; Celmins, Dzintra; Brown, Alice D.; Pearlson, Godfrey D.; Blank, Karen; Anderson, Karen; Flashman, Laura A.; Seltzer, Marc; Hynes, Mary L.; Santulli, Robert B.; Sink, Kaycee M.; Gordineer, Leslie; Williamson, Jeff D.; Garg, Pradeep; Watkins, Franklin; Ott, Brian R.; Querfurth, Henry; Tremont, Geoffrey; Salloway, Stephen; Malloy, Paul; Correia, Stephen; Rosen, Howard J.; Miller, Bruce L.; Perry, David; Mintzer, Jacobo; Spicer, Kenneth; Bachman, David; Pomara, Nunzio; Hernando, Raymundo; Sarrael, Antero; Relkin, Norman; Chaing, Gloria; Lin, Michael; Ravdin, Lisa; Smith, Amanda; Raj, Balebail Ashok; Fargher, Kristin

    2017-01-01

    Accurate prediction of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is important for the early diagnosis and treatment of this condition. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an early stage of AD. Therefore, patients with MCI who are at high risk of fully developing AD should be identified to accurately predict AD. However, the relationship between brain images and AD is difficult to construct because of the complex characteristics of neuroimaging data. To address this problem, we present a longitudinal measurement of MCI brain images and a hierarchical classification method for AD prediction. Longitudinal images obtained from individuals with MCI were investigated to acquire important information on the longitudinal changes, which can be used to classify MCI subjects as either MCI conversion (MCIc) or MCI non-conversion (MCInc) individuals. Moreover, a hierarchical framework was introduced to the classifier to manage high feature dimensionality issues and incorporate spatial information for improving the prediction accuracy. The proposed method was evaluated using 131 patients with MCI (70 MCIc and 61 MCInc) based on MRI scans taken at different time points. Results showed that the proposed method achieved 79.4% accuracy for the classification of MCIc versus MCInc, thereby demonstrating very promising performance for AD prediction. PMID:28079104

  19. Longitudinal measurement and hierarchical classification framework for the prediction of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Huang, Meiyan; Yang, Wei; Feng, Qianjin; Chen, Wufan

    2017-01-12

    Accurate prediction of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is important for the early diagnosis and treatment of this condition. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is an early stage of AD. Therefore, patients with MCI who are at high risk of fully developing AD should be identified to accurately predict AD. However, the relationship between brain images and AD is difficult to construct because of the complex characteristics of neuroimaging data. To address this problem, we present a longitudinal measurement of MCI brain images and a hierarchical classification method for AD prediction. Longitudinal images obtained from individuals with MCI were investigated to acquire important information on the longitudinal changes, which can be used to classify MCI subjects as either MCI conversion (MCIc) or MCI non-conversion (MCInc) individuals. Moreover, a hierarchical framework was introduced to the classifier to manage high feature dimensionality issues and incorporate spatial information for improving the prediction accuracy. The proposed method was evaluated using 131 patients with MCI (70 MCIc and 61 MCInc) based on MRI scans taken at different time points. Results showed that the proposed method achieved 79.4% accuracy for the classification of MCIc versus MCInc, thereby demonstrating very promising performance for AD prediction.

  20. The use and role of predictive systems in disease management

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Disease predictive systems are intended to be management aids. With a few exceptions, these systems typically do not have sustained use directly by growers. Rather, their impact is mostly pedagogic and indirect, improving recommendations from farm advisers and shaping management concepts. The degree...

  1. A Maximal Graded Exercise Test to Accurately Predict VO2max in 18-65-Year-Old Adults

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    George, James D.; Bradshaw, Danielle I.; Hyde, Annette; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ronald L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop an age-generalized regression model to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO sub 2 max) based on a maximal treadmill graded exercise test (GXT; George, 1996). Participants (N = 100), ages 18-65 years, reached a maximal level of exertion (mean plus or minus standard deviation [SD]; maximal heart rate [HR sub…

  2. Accurate Prediction of Protein Functional Class From Sequence in the Mycobacterium Tuberculosis and Escherichia Coli Genomes Using Data Mining

    PubMed Central

    Karwath, Andreas; Clare, Amanda; Dehaspe, Luc

    2000-01-01

    The analysis of genomics data needs to become as automated as its generation. Here we present a novel data-mining approach to predicting protein functional class from sequence. This method is based on a combination of inductive logic programming clustering and rule learning. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on the M. tuberculosis and E. coli genomes, and identify biologically interpretable rules which predict protein functional class from information only available from the sequence. These rules predict 65% of the ORFs with no assigned function in M. tuberculosis and 24% of those in E. coli, with an estimated accuracy of 60–80% (depending on the level of functional assignment). The rules are founded on a combination of detection of remote homology, convergent evolution and horizontal gene transfer. We identify rules that predict protein functional class even in the absence of detectable sequence or structural homology. These rules give insight into the evolutionary history of M. tuberculosis and E. coli. PMID:11119305

  3. Herbivore-induced plant volatiles accurately predict history of coexistence, diet breadth, and feeding mode of herbivores.

    PubMed

    Danner, Holger; Desurmont, Gaylord A; Cristescu, Simona M; van Dam, Nicole M

    2017-01-30

    Herbivore-induced plant volatiles (HIPVs) serve as specific cues to higher trophic levels. Novel, exotic herbivores entering native foodwebs may disrupt the infochemical network as a result of changes in HIPV profiles. Here, we analysed HIPV blends of native Brassica rapa plants infested with one of 10 herbivore species with different coexistence histories, diet breadths and feeding modes. Partial least squares (PLS) models were fitted to assess whether HIPV blends emitted by Dutch B. rapa differ between native and exotic herbivores, between specialists and generalists, and between piercing-sucking and chewing herbivores. These models were used to predict the status of two additional herbivores. We found that HIPV blends predicted the evolutionary history, diet breadth and feeding mode of the herbivore with an accuracy of 80% or higher. Based on the HIPVs, the PLS models reliably predicted that Trichoplusia ni and Spodoptera exigua are perceived as exotic, leaf-chewing generalists by Dutch B. rapa plants. These results indicate that there are consistent and predictable differences in HIPV blends depending on global herbivore characteristics, including coexistence history. Consequently, native organisms may be able to rapidly adapt to potentially disruptive effects of exotic herbivores on the infochemical network.

  4. Accurate and efficient prediction of fine-resolution hydrologic and carbon dynamic simulations from coarse-resolution models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pau, George Shu Heng; Shen, Chaopeng; Riley, William J.; Liu, Yaning

    2016-02-01

    The topography, and the biotic and abiotic parameters are typically upscaled to make watershed-scale hydrologic-biogeochemical models computationally tractable. However, upscaling procedure can produce biases when nonlinear interactions between different processes are not fully captured at coarse resolutions. Here we applied the Proper Orthogonal Decomposition Mapping Method (PODMM) to downscale the field solutions from a coarse (7 km) resolution grid to a fine (220 m) resolution grid. PODMM trains a reduced-order model (ROM) with coarse-resolution and fine-resolution solutions, here obtained using PAWS+CLM, a quasi-3-D watershed processes model that has been validated for many temperate watersheds. Subsequent fine-resolution solutions were approximated based only on coarse-resolution solutions and the ROM. The approximation errors were efficiently quantified using an error estimator. By jointly estimating correlated variables and temporally varying the ROM parameters, we further reduced the approximation errors by up to 20%. We also improved the method's robustness by constructing multiple ROMs using different set of variables, and selecting the best approximation based on the error estimator. The ROMs produced accurate downscaling of soil moisture, latent heat flux, and net primary production with O(1000) reduction in computational cost. The subgrid distributions were also nearly indistinguishable from the ones obtained using the fine-resolution model. Compared to coarse-resolution solutions, biases in upscaled ROM solutions were reduced by up to 80%. This method has the potential to help address the long-standing spatial scaling problem in hydrology and enable long-time integration, parameter estimation, and stochastic uncertainty analysis while accurately representing the heterogeneities.

  5. How accurately can subject-specific finite element models predict strains and strength of human femora? Investigation using full-field measurements.

    PubMed

    Grassi, Lorenzo; Väänänen, Sami P; Ristinmaa, Matti; Jurvelin, Jukka S; Isaksson, Hanna

    2016-03-21

    Subject-specific finite element models have been proposed as a tool to improve fracture risk assessment in individuals. A thorough laboratory validation against experimental data is required before introducing such models in clinical practice. Results from digital image correlation can provide full-field strain distribution over the specimen surface during in vitro test, instead of at a few pre-defined locations as with strain gauges. The aim of this study was to validate finite element models of human femora against experimental data from three cadaver femora, both in terms of femoral strength and of the full-field strain distribution collected with digital image correlation. The results showed a high accuracy between predicted and measured principal strains (R(2)=0.93, RMSE=10%, 1600 validated data points per specimen). Femoral strength was predicted using a rate dependent material model with specific strain limit values for yield and failure. This provided an accurate prediction (<2% error) for two out of three specimens. In the third specimen, an accidental change in the boundary conditions occurred during the experiment, which compromised the femoral strength validation. The achieved strain accuracy was comparable to that obtained in state-of-the-art studies which validated their prediction accuracy against 10-16 strain gauge measurements. Fracture force was accurately predicted, with the predicted failure location being very close to the experimental fracture rim. Despite the low sample size and the single loading condition tested, the present combined numerical-experimental method showed that finite element models can predict femoral strength by providing a thorough description of the local bone mechanical response.

  6. SnowyOwl: accurate prediction of fungal genes by using RNA-Seq and homology information to select among ab initio models

    PubMed Central

    2014-01-01

    Background Locating the protein-coding genes in novel genomes is essential to understanding and exploiting the genomic information but it is still difficult to accurately predict all the genes. The recent availability of detailed information about transcript structure from high-throughput sequencing of messenger RNA (RNA-Seq) delineates many expressed genes and promises increased accuracy in gene prediction. Computational gene predictors have been intensively developed for and tested in well-studied animal genomes. Hundreds of fungal genomes are now or will soon be sequenced. The differences of fungal genomes from animal genomes and the phylogenetic sparsity of well-studied fungi call for gene-prediction tools tailored to them. Results SnowyOwl is a new gene prediction pipeline that uses RNA-Seq data to train and provide hints for the generation of Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based gene predictions and to evaluate the resulting models. The pipeline has been developed and streamlined by comparing its predictions to manually curated gene models in three fungal genomes and validated against the high-quality gene annotation of Neurospora crassa; SnowyOwl predicted N. crassa genes with 83% sensitivity and 65% specificity. SnowyOwl gains sensitivity by repeatedly running the HMM gene predictor Augustus with varied input parameters and selectivity by choosing the models with best homology to known proteins and best agreement with the RNA-Seq data. Conclusions SnowyOwl efficiently uses RNA-Seq data to produce accurate gene models in both well-studied and novel fungal genomes. The source code for the SnowyOwl pipeline (in Python) and a web interface (in PHP) is freely available from http://sourceforge.net/projects/snowyowl/. PMID:24980894

  7. Accurate prediction of the electronic properties of low-dimensional graphene derivatives using a screened hybrid density functional.

    PubMed

    Barone, Veronica; Hod, Oded; Peralta, Juan E; Scuseria, Gustavo E

    2011-04-19

    Over the last several years, low-dimensional graphene derivatives, such as carbon nanotubes and graphene nanoribbons, have played a central role in the pursuit of a plausible carbon-based nanotechnology. Their electronic properties can be either metallic or semiconducting depending purely on morphology, but predicting their electronic behavior has proven challenging. The combination of experimental efforts with modeling of these nanometer-scale structures has been instrumental in gaining insight into their physical and chemical properties and the processes involved at these scales. Particularly, approximations based on density functional theory have emerged as a successful computational tool for predicting the electronic structure of these materials. In this Account, we review our efforts in modeling graphitic nanostructures from first principles with hybrid density functionals, namely the Heyd-Scuseria-Ernzerhof (HSE) screened exchange hybrid and the hybrid meta-generalized functional of Tao, Perdew, Staroverov, and Scuseria (TPSSh). These functionals provide a powerful tool for quantitatively studying structure-property relations and the effects of external perturbations such as chemical substitutions, electric and magnetic fields, and mechanical deformations on the electronic and magnetic properties of these low-dimensional carbon materials. We show how HSE and TPSSh successfully predict the electronic properties of these materials, providing a good description of their band structure and density of states, their work function, and their magnetic ordering in the cases in which magnetism arises. Moreover, these approximations are capable of successfully predicting optical transitions (first and higher order) in both metallic and semiconducting single-walled carbon nanotubes of various chiralities and diameters with impressive accuracy. This versatility includes the correct prediction of the trigonal warping splitting in metallic nanotubes. The results predicted

  8. An Electroacoustic Hearing Protector Simulator That Accurately Predicts Pressure Levels in the Ear Based on Standard Performance Metrics

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-08-01

    24 Figure 20. ABQ experiment showing five volunteers located 1.0 m from source in upper-left panel wearing...study (Royster et al.,1996) in which users self-fit hearing protectors (ANSI S12.6- 2008 method B: user fit) with no experimenter instruction gives an...values provided by the experimenters and simulator fits for the intact and modified muffs. Figure 22 (upper panel) shows the simulator prediction

  9. Knowledge-guided docking: accurate prospective prediction of bound configurations of novel ligands using Surflex-Dock

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cleves, Ann E.; Jain, Ajay N.

    2015-06-01

    Prediction of the bound configuration of small-molecule ligands that differ substantially from the cognate ligand of a protein co-crystal structure is much more challenging than re-docking the cognate ligand. Success rates for cross-docking in the range of 20-30 % are common. We present an approach that uses structural information known prior to a particular cutoff-date to make predictions on ligands whose bounds structures were determined later. The knowledge-guided docking protocol was tested on a set of ten protein targets using a total of 949 ligands. The benchmark data set, called PINC ("PINC Is Not Cognate"), is publicly available. Protein pocket similarity was used to choose representative structures for ensemble-docking. The docking protocol made use of known ligand poses prior to the cutoff-date, both to help guide the configurational search and to adjust the rank of predicted poses. Overall, the top-scoring pose family was correct over 60 % of the time, with the top-two pose families approaching a 75 % success rate. Correct poses among all those predicted were identified nearly 90 % of the time. The largest improvements came from the use of molecular similarity to improve ligand pose rankings and the strategy for identifying representative protein structures. With the exception of a single outlier target, the knowledge-guided docking protocol produced results matching the quality of cognate-ligand re-docking, but it did so on a very challenging temporally-segregated cross-docking benchmark.

  10. Knowledge-guided docking: accurate prospective prediction of bound configurations of novel ligands using Surflex-Dock.

    PubMed

    Cleves, Ann E; Jain, Ajay N

    2015-06-01

    Prediction of the bound configuration of small-molecule ligands that differ substantially from the cognate ligand of a protein co-crystal structure is much more challenging than re-docking the cognate ligand. Success rates for cross-docking in the range of 20-30 % are common. We present an approach that uses structural information known prior to a particular cutoff-date to make predictions on ligands whose bounds structures were determined later. The knowledge-guided docking protocol was tested on a set of ten protein targets using a total of 949 ligands. The benchmark data set, called PINC ("PINC Is Not Cognate"), is publicly available. Protein pocket similarity was used to choose representative structures for ensemble-docking. The docking protocol made use of known ligand poses prior to the cutoff-date, both to help guide the configurational search and to adjust the rank of predicted poses. Overall, the top-scoring pose family was correct over 60 % of the time, with the top-two pose families approaching a 75 % success rate. Correct poses among all those predicted were identified nearly 90 % of the time. The largest improvements came from the use of molecular similarity to improve ligand pose rankings and the strategy for identifying representative protein structures. With the exception of a single outlier target, the knowledge-guided docking protocol produced results matching the quality of cognate-ligand re-docking, but it did so on a very challenging temporally-segregated cross-docking benchmark.

  11. An Optimized Method for Accurate Fetal Sex Prediction and Sex Chromosome Aneuploidy Detection in Non-Invasive Prenatal Testing

    PubMed Central

    Li, Haibo; Ding, Jie; Wen, Ping; Zhang, Qin; Xiang, Jingjing; Li, Qiong; Xuan, Liming; Kong, Lingyin; Mao, Yan; Zhu, Yijun; Shen, Jingjing; Liang, Bo; Li, Hong

    2016-01-01

    Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) combined with bioinformatic analysis has been widely applied to detect fetal chromosomal aneuploidies such as trisomy 21, 18, 13 and sex chromosome aneuploidies (SCAs) by sequencing cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) from maternal plasma, so-called non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT). However, many technical challenges, such as dependency on correct fetal sex prediction, large variations of chromosome Y measurement and high sensitivity to random reads mapping, may result in higher false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR) in fetal sex prediction as well as in SCAs detection. Here, we developed an optimized method to improve the accuracy of the current method by filtering out randomly mapped reads in six specific regions of the Y chromosome. The method reduces the FNR and FPR of fetal sex prediction from nearly 1% to 0.01% and 0.06%, respectively and works robustly under conditions of low fetal DNA concentration (1%) in testing and simulation of 92 samples. The optimized method was further confirmed by large scale testing (1590 samples), suggesting that it is reliable and robust enough for clinical testing. PMID:27441628

  12. Fast and accurate multivariate Gaussian modeling of protein families: predicting residue contacts and protein-interaction partners.

    PubMed

    Baldassi, Carlo; Zamparo, Marco; Feinauer, Christoph; Procaccini, Andrea; Zecchina, Riccardo; Weigt, Martin; Pagnani, Andrea

    2014-01-01

    In the course of evolution, proteins show a remarkable conservation of their three-dimensional structure and their biological function, leading to strong evolutionary constraints on the sequence variability between homologous proteins. Our method aims at extracting such constraints from rapidly accumulating sequence data, and thereby at inferring protein structure and function from sequence information alone. Recently, global statistical inference methods (e.g. direct-coupling analysis, sparse inverse covariance estimation) have achieved a breakthrough towards this aim, and their predictions have been successfully implemented into tertiary and quaternary protein structure prediction methods. However, due to the discrete nature of the underlying variable (amino-acids), exact inference requires exponential time in the protein length, and efficient approximations are needed for practical applicability. Here we propose a very efficient multivariate Gaussian modeling approach as a variant of direct-coupling analysis: the discrete amino-acid variables are replaced by continuous Gaussian random variables. The resulting statistical inference problem is efficiently and exactly solvable. We show that the quality of inference is comparable or superior to the one achieved by mean-field approximations to inference with discrete variables, as done by direct-coupling analysis. This is true for (i) the prediction of residue-residue contacts in proteins, and (ii) the identification of protein-protein interaction partner in bacterial signal transduction. An implementation of our multivariate Gaussian approach is available at the website http://areeweb.polito.it/ricerca/cmp/code.

  13. A highly accurate protein structural class prediction approach using auto cross covariance transformation and recursive feature elimination.

    PubMed

    Li, Xiaowei; Liu, Taigang; Tao, Peiying; Wang, Chunhua; Chen, Lanming

    2015-12-01

    Structural class characterizes the overall folding type of a protein or its domain. Many methods have been proposed to improve the prediction accuracy of protein structural class in recent years, but it is still a challenge for the low-similarity sequences. In this study, we introduce a feature extraction technique based on auto cross covariance (ACC) transformation of position-specific score matrix (PSSM) to represent a protein sequence. Then support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) is adopted to select top K features according to their importance and these features are input to a support vector machine (SVM) to conduct the prediction. Performance evaluation of the proposed method is performed using the jackknife test on three low-similarity datasets, i.e., D640, 1189 and 25PDB. By means of this method, the overall accuracies of 97.2%, 96.2%, and 93.3% are achieved on these three datasets, which are higher than those of most existing methods. This suggests that the proposed method could serve as a very cost-effective tool for predicting protein structural class especially for low-similarity datasets.

  14. Which factors predict cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease?

    PubMed Central

    Caparros-Lefebvre, D; Pécheux, N; Petit, V; Duhamel, A; Petit, H

    1995-01-01

    The study assessed cognitive decline in non-demented, non-depressed patients with well defined Parkinson's disease and determined the predictive value for cognitive decline of different motor symptoms. Motor disability was measured with the Unified Parkinson's disease rating scale, impairment in activities of daily living, levodopa test, and long term clinical follow up. Neuropsychological evaluations included modified mini mental state, fluency, Wechsler logical memory, Wisconsin card sorting test, and the Montgomery and Asberg depression rating scale. Fifty three patients fulfilling clinical criteria for idiopathic Parkinson's disease were studied. Cognitive performance on initial testing was significantly correlated with education and disease duration but not with age at disease onset. Cognitive performance on retesting after three years of follow up was significantly reduced. This reduction was significantly greater in the late onset group, in patients with isolated dystonic dyskinesiae, and in patients with a lower percentage of motor improvement on levodopa. Cognitive decline in idiopathic Parkinson's disease may depend on both the prevalence of non-dopaminergic lesions and the topography of dopaminergic denervation. Predictive factors for cognitive decline, especially in executive tasks, relate more to non-dopaminergic than to dopaminergic lesions. PMID:7823067

  15. A modified ELISA accurately measures secretion of high molecular weight hyaluronan (HA) by Graves' disease orbital cells.

    PubMed

    Krieger, Christine C; Gershengorn, Marvin C

    2014-02-01

    Excess production of hyaluronan (hyaluronic acid [HA]) in the retro-orbital space is a major component of Graves' ophthalmopathy, and regulation of HA production by orbital cells is a major research area. In most previous studies, HA was measured by ELISAs that used HA-binding proteins for detection and rooster comb HA as standards. We show that the binding efficiency of HA-binding protein in the ELISA is a function of HA polymer size. Using gel electrophoresis, we show that HA secreted from orbital cells is primarily comprised of polymers more than 500 000. We modified a commercially available ELISA by using 1 million molecular weight HA as standard to accurately measure HA of this size. We demonstrated that IL-1β-stimulated HA secretion is at least 2-fold greater than previously reported, and activation of the TSH receptor by an activating antibody M22 from a patient with Graves' disease led to more than 3-fold increase in HA production in both fibroblasts/preadipocytes and adipocytes. These effects were not consistently detected with the commercial ELISA using rooster comb HA as standard and suggest that fibroblasts/preadipocytes may play a more prominent role in HA remodeling in Graves' ophthalmopathy than previously appreciated.

  16. Dual X-ray absorptiometry accurately predicts carcass composition from live sheep and chemical composition of live and dead sheep.

    PubMed

    Pearce, K L; Ferguson, M; Gardner, G; Smith, N; Greef, J; Pethick, D W

    2009-01-01

    Fifty merino wethers (liveweight range from 44 to 81kg, average of 58.6kg) were lot fed for 42d and scanned through a dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) as both a live animal and whole carcass (carcass weight range from 15 to 32kg, average of 22.9kg) producing measures of total tissue, lean, fat and bone content. The carcasses were subsequently boned out into saleable cuts and the weights and yield of boned out muscle, fat and bone recorded. The relationship between chemical lean (protein+water) was highly correlated with DXA carcass lean (r(2)=0.90, RSD=0.674kg) and moderately with DXA live lean (r(2)=0.72, RSD=1.05kg). The relationship between the chemical fat was moderately correlated with DXA carcass fat (r(2)=0.86, RSD=0.42kg) and DXA live fat (r(2)=0.70, RSD=0.71kg). DXA carcass and live animal bone was not well correlated with chemical ash (both r(2)=0.38, RSD=0.3). DXA carcass lean was moderately well predicted from DXA live lean with the inclusion of bodyweight in the regression (r(2)=0.82, RSD=0.87kg). DXA carcass fat was well predicted from DXA live fat (r(2)=0.86, RSD=0.54kg). DXA carcass lean and DXA carcass fat with the inclusion of carcass weight in the regression significantly predicted boned out muscle (r(2)=0.97, RSD=0.32kg) and fat weight, respectively (r(2)=0.92, RSD=0.34kg). The use of DXA live lean and DXA live fat with the inclusion of bodyweight to predict boned out muscle (r(2)=0.83, RSD=0.75kg) and fat (r(2)=0.86, RSD=0.46kg) weight, respectively, was moderate. The use of DXA carcass and live lean and fat to predict boned out muscle and fat yield was not correlated as weight. The future for the DXA will exist in the determination of body composition in live animals and carcasses in research experiments but there is potential for the DXA to be used as an online carcass grading system.

  17. Circulating microRNAs and diabetes mellitus: a novel tool for disease prediction, diagnosis, and staging?

    PubMed

    Sebastiani, G; Nigi, L; Grieco, G E; Mancarella, F; Ventriglia, G; Dotta, F

    2017-02-17

    Diabetes is a complex, multifactorial group of metabolic diseases characterized by chronic hyperglycaemia due to pancreatic beta-cell dysfunction and/or loss. It is characterized by an asymptomatic and highly variable prodromic phase, which renders diabetes mellitus difficult to be predicted with sufficient accuracy. Despite several efforts in the identification and standardization of newly trustable. Biomarkers able to predict and follow-up diabetes and to specifically subtype its different forms, few of them have proven of clinical utility. Recently, a new class of endogenous non-coding small RNAs, namely microRNAs, have been indicated as putative biomarkers, being released by cells and tissues and found in a cell-free circulating form in many biological fluids, including serum and/or plasma. MicroRNAs have been initially identified as promising biomarkers in cancer, and nowadays their application has been extended to other diseases, including diabetes. Although an increasing number of studies focused on the evaluation of circulating microRNAs in diabetes, few reproducibly identified microRNAs as biomarkers for disease prediction or follow-up. Technological problems as well as the need to obtain highly standardized operating procedures and methods are still an issue in such research field. In this review, we comprehensively resume the main and most recent findings on circulating microRNAs, and their possible use as biomarkers to predict and follow-up diabetes and its complications, as well as the methodological challenges to standardize accurate operating procedures for their analysis.

  18. 22 Years of predictive testing for Huntington's disease: the experience of the UK Huntington's Prediction Consortium.

    PubMed

    Baig, Sheharyar S; Strong, Mark; Rosser, Elisabeth; Taverner, Nicola V; Glew, Ruth; Miedzybrodzka, Zosia; Clarke, Angus; Craufurd, David; Quarrell, Oliver W

    2016-10-01

    Huntington's disease (HD) is a progressive neurodegenerative condition. At-risk individuals have accessed predictive testing via direct mutation testing since 1993. The UK Huntington's Prediction Consortium has collected anonymised data on UK predictive tests, annually, from 1993 to 2014: 9407 predictive tests were performed across 23 UK centres. Where gender was recorded, 4077 participants were male (44.3%) and 5122 were female (55.7%). The median age of participants was 37 years. The most common reason for predictive testing was to reduce uncertainty (70.5%). Of the 8441 predictive tests on individuals at 50% prior risk, 4629 (54.8%) were reported as mutation negative and 3790 (44.9%) were mutation positive, with 22 (0.3%) in the database being uninterpretable. Using a prevalence figure of 12.3 × 10(-5), the cumulative uptake of predictive testing in the 50% at-risk UK population from 1994 to 2014 was estimated at 17.4% (95% CI: 16.9-18.0%). We present the largest study conducted on predictive testing in HD. Our findings indicate that the vast majority of individuals at risk of HD (>80%) have not undergone predictive testing. Future therapies in HD will likely target presymptomatic individuals; therefore, identifying the at-risk population whose gene status is unknown is of significant public health value.

  19. Imaging proteomics for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Nazeri, Arash; Ganjgahi, Habib; Roostaei, Tina; Nichols, Thomas; Zarei, Mojtaba

    2014-11-15

    Proteomic and imaging markers have been widely studied as potential biomarkers for diagnosis, monitoring and prognosis of Alzheimer's disease. In this study, we used Alzheimer Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset and performed parallel independent component analysis on cross sectional and longitudinal proteomic and imaging data in order to identify the best proteomic model for diagnosis, monitoring and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD). We used plasma proteins measurement and imaging data from AD and healthy controls (HC) at the baseline and 1 year follow-up. Group comparisons at baseline and changes over 1 year were calculated for proteomic and imaging data. The results were fed into parallel independent component analysis in order to identify proteins that were associated with structural brain changes cross sectionally and longitudinally. Regression model was used to find the best model that can discriminate AD from HC, monitor AD and to predict MCI converters from non-converters. We showed that five proteins are associated with structural brain changes in the brain. These proteins could discriminate AD from HC with 57% specificity and 89% sensitivity. Four proteins whose change over 1 year were associated with brain structural changes could discriminate AD from HC with sensitivity of 93%, and specificity of 92%. This model predicted MCI conversion to AD in 2 years with 94% accuracy. This model has the highest accuracy in prediction of MCI conversion to AD within the ADNI-1 dataset. This study shows that combination of selected plasma protein levels and MR imaging is a useful method in identifying potential biomarker.

  20. A 3D-CFD code for accurate prediction of fluid flows and fluid forces in seals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Athavale, M. M.; Przekwas, A. J.; Hendricks, R. C.

    1994-01-01

    Current and future turbomachinery requires advanced seal configurations to control leakage, inhibit mixing of incompatible fluids and to control the rotodynamic response. In recognition of a deficiency in the existing predictive methodology for seals, a seven year effort was established in 1990 by NASA's Office of Aeronautics Exploration and Technology, under the Earth-to-Orbit Propulsion program, to develop validated Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) concepts, codes and analyses for seals. The effort will provide NASA and the U.S. Aerospace Industry with advanced CFD scientific codes and industrial codes for analyzing and designing turbomachinery seals. An advanced 3D CFD cylindrical seal code has been developed, incorporating state-of-the-art computational methodology for flow analysis in straight, tapered and stepped seals. Relevant computational features of the code include: stationary/rotating coordinates, cylindrical and general Body Fitted Coordinates (BFC) systems, high order differencing schemes, colocated variable arrangement, advanced turbulence models, incompressible/compressible flows, and moving grids. This paper presents the current status of code development, code demonstration for predicting rotordynamic coefficients, numerical parametric study of entrance loss coefficients for generic annular seals, and plans for code extensions to labyrinth, damping, and other seal configurations.

  1. IrisPlex: a sensitive DNA tool for accurate prediction of blue and brown eye colour in the absence of ancestry information.

    PubMed

    Walsh, Susan; Liu, Fan; Ballantyne, Kaye N; van Oven, Mannis; Lao, Oscar; Kayser, Manfred

    2011-06-01

    A new era of 'DNA intelligence' is arriving in forensic biology, due to the impending ability to predict externally visible characteristics (EVCs) from biological material such as those found at crime scenes. EVC prediction from forensic samples, or from body parts, is expected to help concentrate police investigations towards finding unknown individuals, at times when conventional DNA profiling fails to provide informative leads. Here we present a robust and sensitive tool, termed IrisPlex, for the accurate prediction of blue and brown eye colour from DNA in future forensic applications. We used the six currently most eye colour-informative single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that previously revealed prevalence-adjusted prediction accuracies of over 90% for blue and brown eye colour in 6168 Dutch Europeans. The single multiplex assay, based on SNaPshot chemistry and capillary electrophoresis, both widely used in forensic laboratories, displays high levels of genotyping sensitivity with complete profiles generated from as little as 31pg of DNA, approximately six human diploid cell equivalents. We also present a prediction model to correctly classify an individual's eye colour, via probability estimation solely based on DNA data, and illustrate the accuracy of the developed prediction test on 40 individuals from various geographic origins. Moreover, we obtained insights into the worldwide allele distribution of these six SNPs using the HGDP-CEPH samples of 51 populations. Eye colour prediction analyses from HGDP-CEPH samples provide evidence that the test and model presented here perform reliably without prior ancestry information, although future worldwide genotype and phenotype data shall confirm this notion. As our IrisPlex eye colour prediction test is capable of immediate implementation in forensic casework, it represents one of the first steps forward in the creation of a fully individualised EVC prediction system for future use in forensic DNA intelligence.

  2. Genomic inference accurately predicts the timing and severity of a recent bottleneck in a non-model insect population

    PubMed Central

    McCoy, Rajiv C.; Garud, Nandita R.; Kelley, Joanna L.; Boggs, Carol L.; Petrov, Dmitri A.

    2015-01-01

    The analysis of molecular data from natural populations has allowed researchers to answer diverse ecological questions that were previously intractable. In particular, ecologists are often interested in the demographic history of populations, information that is rarely available from historical records. Methods have been developed to infer demographic parameters from genomic data, but it is not well understood how inferred parameters compare to true population history or depend on aspects of experimental design. Here we present and evaluate a method of SNP discovery using RNA-sequencing and demographic inference using the program δaδi, which uses a diffusion approximation to the allele frequency spectrum to fit demographic models. We test these methods in a population of the checkerspot butterfly Euphydryas gillettii. This population was intentionally introduced to Gothic, Colorado in 1977 and has since experienced extreme fluctuations including bottlenecks of fewer than 25 adults, as documented by nearly annual field surveys. Using RNA-sequencing of eight individuals from Colorado and eight individuals from a native population in Wyoming, we generate the first genomic resources for this system. While demographic inference is commonly used to examine ancient demography, our study demonstrates that our inexpensive, all-in-one approach to marker discovery and genotyping provides sufficient data to accurately infer the timing of a recent bottleneck. This demographic scenario is relevant for many species of conservation concern, few of which have sequenced genomes. Our results are remarkably insensitive to sample size or number of genomic markers, which has important implications for applying this method to other non-model systems. PMID:24237665

  3. An accurate method to predict the stress concentration in composite laminates with a circular hole under tensile loading

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Russo, A.; Zuccarello, B.

    2007-07-01

    The paper presents a theoretical-numerical hybrid method for determining the stresses distribution in composite laminates containing a circular hole and subjected to uniaxial tensile loading. The method is based upon an appropriate corrective function allowing a simple and rapid evaluation of stress distributions in a generic plate of finite width with a hole based on the theoretical stresses distribution in an infinite plate with the same hole geometry and material. In order to verify the accuracy of the method proposed, various numerical and experimental tests have been performed by considering different laminate lay-ups; in particular, the experimental results have shown that a combined use of the method proposed and the well-know point-stress criterion leads to reliable strength predictions for GFRP or CFRP laminates with a circular hole.

  4. Accurate prediction of secreted substrates and identification of a conserved putative secretion signal for type III secretion systems

    SciTech Connect

    Samudrala, Ram; Heffron, Fred; McDermott, Jason E.

    2009-04-24

    The type III secretion system is an essential component for virulence in many Gram-negative bacteria. Though components of the secretion system apparatus are conserved, its substrates, effector proteins, are not. We have used a machine learning approach to identify new secreted effectors. The method integrates evolutionary measures, such as the pattern of homologs in a range of other organisms, and sequence-based features, such as G+C content, amino acid composition and the N-terminal 30 residues of the protein sequence. The method was trained on known effectors from Salmonella typhimurium and validated on a corresponding set of effectors from Pseudomonas syringae, after eliminating effectors with detectable sequence similarity. The method was able to identify all of the known effectors in P. syringae with a specificity of 84% and sensitivity of 82%. The reciprocal validation, training on P. syringae and validating on S. typhimurium, gave similar results with a specificity of 86% when the sensitivity level was 87%. These results show that type III effectors in disparate organisms share common features. We found that maximal performance is attained by including an N-terminal sequence of only 30 residues, which agrees with previous studies indicating that this region contains the secretion signal. We then used the method to define the most important residues in this putative secretion signal. Finally, we present novel predictions of secreted effectors in S. typhimurium, some of which have been experimentally validated, and apply the method to predict secreted effectors in the genetically intractable human pathogen Chlamydia trachomatis. This approach is a novel and effective way to identify secreted effectors in a broad range of pathogenic bacteria for further experimental characterization and provides insight into the nature of the type III secretion signal.

  5. A single bioavailability model can accurately predict Ni toxicity to green microalgae in soft and hard surface waters.

    PubMed

    Deleebeeck, Nele M E; De Laender, Frederik; Chepurnov, Victor A; Vyverman, Wim; Janssen, Colin R; De Schamphelaere, Karel A C

    2009-04-01

    The major research questions addressed in this study were (i) whether green microalgae living in soft water (operationally defined water hardness<10mg CaCO(3)/L) are intrinsically more sensitive to Ni than green microalgae living in hard water (operationally defined water hardness >25mg CaCO(3)/L), and (ii) whether a single bioavailability model can be used to predict the effect of water hardness on the toxicity of Ni to green microalgae in both soft and hard water. Algal growth inhibition tests were conducted with clones of 10 different species collected in soft and hard water lakes in Sweden. Soft water algae were tested in a 'soft' and a 'moderately hard' test medium (nominal water hardness=6.25 and 16.3mg CaCO(3)/L, respectively), whereas hard water algae were tested in a 'moderately hard' and a 'hard' test medium (nominal water hardness=16.3 and 43.4 mg CaCO(3)/L, respectively). The results from the growth inhibition tests in the 'moderately hard' test medium revealed no significant sensitivity differences between the soft and the hard water algae used in this study. Increasing water hardness significantly reduced Ni toxicity to both soft and hard water algae. Because it has previously been demonstrated that Ca does not significantly protect the unicellular green alga Pseudokirchneriella subcapitata against Ni toxicity, it was assumed that the protective effect of water hardness can be ascribed to Mg alone. The logK(MgBL) (=5.5) was calculated to be identical for the soft and the hard water algae used in this study. A single bioavailability model can therefore be used to predict Ni toxicity to green microalgae in soft and hard surface waters as a function of water hardness.

  6. Psychodynamic theory and counseling in predictive testing for Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Tassicker, Roslyn J

    2005-04-01

    This paper revisits psychodynamic theory, which can be applied in predictive testing counseling for Huntington's Disease (HD). Psychodynamic theory has developed from the work of Freud and places importance on early parent-child experiences. The nature of these relationships, or attachments are reflected in adult expectations and relationships. Two significant concepts, identification and fear of abandonment, have been developed and expounded by the psychodynamic theorist, Melanie Klein. The processes of identification and fear of abandonment can become evident in predictive testing counseling and are colored by the client's experience of growing up with a parent affected by Huntington's Disease. In reflecting on family-of-origin experiences, clients can also express implied expectations of the future, and future relationships. Case examples are given to illustrate the dynamic processes of identification and fear of abandonment which may present in the clinical setting. Counselor recognition of these processes can illuminate and inform counseling practice.

  7. Growth Differentiation Factor 15 Predicts Chronic Liver Disease Severity

    PubMed Central

    Lee, Eaum Seok; Kim, Seok Hyun; Kim, Hyun Jin; Kim, Kyung Hee; Lee, Byung Seok; Ku, Bon Jeong

    2017-01-01

    Background/Aims Growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) belongs to the transforming growth factor-β superfamily. GDF-15 is emerging as a biomarker for several diseases. The aim of this study was to determine the clinical performances of GDF-15 for the prediction of liver fibrosis and severity in chronic liver disease. Methods The serum GDF-15 levels were examined via enzyme immunoassay in 145 patients with chronic liver disease and 101 healthy individuals. The patients with chronic liver disease consisted of 54 patients with chronic hepatitis, 44 patients with compensated liver cirrhosis, and 47 patients with decompensated liver cirrhosis. Results Of the patients with chronic liver diseases, the decompensated liver cirrhosis patients had an increased serum GDF-15 (3,483 ng/L) level compared with the patients with compensated liver cirrhosis (1,861 ng/L) and chronic hepatitis (1,232 ng/L). The overall diagnostic accuracies of GDF-15, as determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves, were as follows: chronic hepatitis=0.656 (>574 ng/L, sensitivity, 53.7%; specificity, 79.2%), compensated liver cirrhosis=0.886 (>760 ng/L, sensitivity, 75.6%; specificity, 92.1%), and decompensated liver cirrhosis=0.984 (>869 ng/L, sensitivity, 97.9%; specificity, 94.1%). Conclusions This investigation represents the first study to demonstrate the availability of GDF-15 in chronic liver disease. GDF-15 comprised a useful biomarker for the prediction of liver fibrosis and severity in chronic liver disease. PMID:27728964

  8. Generalized spin-ratio scaled MP2 method for accurate prediction of intermolecular interactions for neutral and ionic species

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tan, Samuel; Barrera Acevedo, Santiago; Izgorodina, Ekaterina I.

    2017-02-01

    The accurate calculation of intermolecular interactions is important to our understanding of properties in large molecular systems. The high computational cost of the current "gold standard" method, coupled cluster with singles and doubles and perturbative triples (CCSD(T), limits its application to small- to medium-sized systems. Second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation (MP2) theory is a cheaper alternative for larger systems, although at the expense of its decreased accuracy, especially when treating van der Waals complexes. In this study, a new modification of the spin-component scaled MP2 method was proposed for a wide range of intermolecular complexes including two well-known datasets, S22 and S66, and a large dataset of ionic liquids consisting of 174 single ion pairs, IL174. It was found that the spin ratio, ɛΔ s=E/INT O SEIN T S S , calculated as the ratio of the opposite-spin component to the same-spin component of the interaction correlation energy fell in the range of 0.1 and 1.6, in contrast to the range of 3-4 usually observed for the ratio of absolute correlation energy, ɛs=E/OSES S , in individual molecules. Scaled coefficients were found to become negative when the spin ratio fell in close proximity to 1.0, and therefore, the studied intermolecular complexes were divided into two groups: (1) complexes with ɛΔ s< 1 and (2) complexes with ɛΔ s≥ 1 . A separate set of coefficients was obtained for both groups. Exclusion of counterpoise correction during scaling was found to produce superior results due to decreased error. Among a series of Dunning's basis sets, cc-pVTZ and cc-pVQZ were found to be the best performing ones, with a mean absolute error of 1.4 kJ mol-1 and maximum errors below 6.2 kJ mol-1. The new modification, spin-ratio scaled second-order Møller-Plesset perturbation, treats both dispersion-driven and hydrogen-bonded complexes equally well, thus validating its robustness with respect to the interaction type ranging from ionic

  9. Accurate Predictions of Mean Geomagnetic Dipole Excursion and Reversal Frequencies, Mean Paleomagnetic Field Intensity, and the Radius of Earth's Core Using McLeod's Rule

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Voorhies, Coerte V.; Conrad, Joy

    1996-01-01

    The geomagnetic spatial power spectrum R(sub n)(r) is the mean square magnetic induction represented by degree n spherical harmonic coefficients of the internal scalar potential averaged over the geocentric sphere of radius r. McLeod's Rule for the magnetic field generated by Earth's core geodynamo says that the expected core surface power spectrum (R(sub nc)(c)) is inversely proportional to (2n + 1) for 1 less than n less than or equal to N(sub E). McLeod's Rule is verified by locating Earth's core with main field models of Magsat data; the estimated core radius of 3485 kn is close to the seismologic value for c of 3480 km. McLeod's Rule and similar forms are then calibrated with the model values of R(sub n) for 3 less than or = n less than or = 12. Extrapolation to the degree 1 dipole predicts the expectation value of Earth's dipole moment to be about 5.89 x 10(exp 22) Am(exp 2)rms (74.5% of the 1980 value) and the expected geomagnetic intensity to be about 35.6 (mu)T rms at Earth's surface. Archeo- and paleomagnetic field intensity data show these and related predictions to be reasonably accurate. The probability distribution chi(exp 2) with 2n+1 degrees of freedom is assigned to (2n + 1)R(sub nc)/(R(sub nc). Extending this to the dipole implies that an exceptionally weak absolute dipole moment (less than or = 20% of the 1980 value) will exist during 2.5% of geologic time. The mean duration for such major geomagnetic dipole power excursions, one quarter of which feature durable axial dipole reversal, is estimated from the modern dipole power time-scale and the statistical model of excursions. The resulting mean excursion duration of 2767 years forces us to predict an average of 9.04 excursions per million years, 2.26 axial dipole reversals per million years, and a mean reversal duration of 5533 years. Paleomagnetic data show these predictions to be quite accurate. McLeod's Rule led to accurate predictions of Earth's core radius, mean paleomagnetic field

  10. Integrating metabolic performance, thermal tolerance, and plasticity enables for more accurate predictions on species vulnerability to acute and chronic effects of global warming.

    PubMed

    Magozzi, Sarah; Calosi, Piero

    2015-01-01

    Predicting species vulnerability to global warming requires a comprehensive, mechanistic understanding of sublethal and lethal thermal tolerances. To date, however, most studies investigating species physiological responses to increasing temperature have focused on the underlying physiological traits of either acute or chronic tolerance in isolation. Here we propose an integrative, synthetic approach including the investigation of multiple physiological traits (metabolic performance and thermal tolerance), and their plasticity, to provide more accurate and balanced predictions on species and assemblage vulnerability to both acute and chronic effects of global warming. We applied this approach to more accurately elucidate relative species vulnerability to warming within an assemblage of six caridean prawns occurring in the same geographic, hence macroclimatic, region, but living in different thermal habitats. Prawns were exposed to four incubation temperatures (10, 15, 20 and 25 °C) for 7 days, their metabolic rates and upper thermal limits were measured, and plasticity was calculated according to the concept of Reaction Norms, as well as Q10 for metabolism. Compared to species occupying narrower/more stable thermal niches, species inhabiting broader/more variable thermal environments (including the invasive Palaemon macrodactylus) are likely to be less vulnerable to extreme acute thermal events as a result of their higher upper thermal limits. Nevertheless, they may be at greater risk from chronic exposure to warming due to the greater metabolic costs they incur. Indeed, a trade-off between acute and chronic tolerance was apparent in the assemblage investigated. However, the invasive species P. macrodactylus represents an exception to this pattern, showing elevated thermal limits and plasticity of these limits, as well as a high metabolic control. In general, integrating multiple proxies for species physiological acute and chronic responses to increasing

  11. Predicting College Students' First Year Success: Should Soft Skills Be Taken into Consideration to More Accurately Predict the Academic Achievement of College Freshmen?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Powell, Erica Dion

    2013-01-01

    This study presents a survey developed to measure the skills of entering college freshmen in the areas of responsibility, motivation, study habits, literacy, and stress management, and explores the predictive power of this survey as a measure of academic performance during the first semester of college. The survey was completed by 334 incoming…

  12. Microdosing of a Carbon-14 Labeled Protein in Healthy Volunteers Accurately Predicts Its Pharmacokinetics at Therapeutic Dosages.

    PubMed

    Vlaming, M L H; van Duijn, E; Dillingh, M R; Brands, R; Windhorst, A D; Hendrikse, N H; Bosgra, S; Burggraaf, J; de Koning, M C; Fidder, A; Mocking, J A J; Sandman, H; de Ligt, R A F; Fabriek, B O; Pasman, W J; Seinen, W; Alves, T; Carrondo, M; Peixoto, C; Peeters, P A M; Vaes, W H J

    2015-08-01

    Preclinical development of new biological entities (NBEs), such as human protein therapeutics, requires considerable expenditure of time and costs. Poor prediction of pharmacokinetics in humans further reduces net efficiency. In this study, we show for the first time that pharmacokinetic data of NBEs in humans can be successfully obtained early in the drug development process by the use of microdosing in a small group of healthy subjects combined with ultrasensitive accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS). After only minimal preclinical testing, we performed a first-in-human phase 0/phase 1 trial with a human recombinant therapeutic protein (RESCuing Alkaline Phosphatase, human recombinant placental alkaline phosphatase [hRESCAP]) to assess its safety and kinetics. Pharmacokinetic analysis showed dose linearity from microdose (53 μg) [(14) C]-hRESCAP to therapeutic doses (up to 5.3 mg) of the protein in healthy volunteers. This study demonstrates the value of a microdosing approach in a very small cohort for accelerating the clinical development of NBEs.

  13. Women's age and embryo developmental speed accurately predict clinical pregnancy after single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer.

    PubMed

    Kato, Keiichi; Ueno, Satoshi; Yabuuchi, Akiko; Uchiyama, Kazuo; Okuno, Takashi; Kobayashi, Tamotsu; Segawa, Tomoya; Teramoto, Shokichi

    2014-10-01

    The aim of this study was to establish a simple, objective blastocyst grading system using women's age and embryo developmental speed to predict clinical pregnancy after single vitrified-warmed blastocyst transfer. A 6-year retrospective cohort study was conducted in a private infertility centre. A total of 7341 single vitrified-armed blastocyst transfer cycles were included, divided into those carried out between 2006 and 2011 (6046 cycles) and 2012 (1295 cycles). Clinical pregnancy rate, ongoing pregnancy rate and delivery rates were stratified by women's age (<35, 35-37, 38-39, 40-41, 42-45 years) and time to blastocyst expansion (<120, 120-129, 130-139, 140-149, >149 h) as embryo developmental speed. In all the age groups, clinical pregnancy rate, ongoing pregnancy rate and delivery rates decreased as the embryo developmental speed decreased (P < 0.0001). A simple five-grade score based on women's age and embryo developmental speed was determined by actual clinical pregnancy rates observed in the 2006-2011 cohort. Subsequently, the novel grading score was validated in the 2012 cohort (1295 cycles), finding an excellent association. In conclusion, we established a novel blastocyst grading system using women's age and embryo developmental speed as objective parameters.

  14. Transcription factor regulation can be accurately predicted from the presence of target gene signatures in microarray gene expression data

    PubMed Central

    Essaghir, Ahmed; Toffalini, Federica; Knoops, Laurent; Kallin, Anders; van Helden, Jacques; Demoulin, Jean-Baptiste

    2010-01-01

    Deciphering transcription factor networks from microarray data remains difficult. This study presents a simple method to infer the regulation of transcription factors from microarray data based on well-characterized target genes. We generated a catalog containing transcription factors associated with 2720 target genes and 6401 experimentally validated regulations. When it was available, a distinction between transcriptional activation and inhibition was included for each regulation. Next, we built a tool (www.tfacts.org) that compares submitted gene lists with target genes in the catalog to detect regulated transcription factors. TFactS was validated with published lists of regulated genes in various models and compared to tools based on in silico promoter analysis. We next analyzed the NCI60 cancer microarray data set and showed the regulation of SOX10, MITF and JUN in melanomas. We then performed microarray experiments comparing gene expression response of human fibroblasts stimulated by different growth factors. TFactS predicted the specific activation of Signal transducer and activator of transcription factors by PDGF-BB, which was confirmed experimentally. Our results show that the expression levels of transcription factor target genes constitute a robust signature for transcription factor regulation, and can be efficiently used for microarray data mining. PMID:20215436

  15. Brain ERP components predict which individuals progress to Alzheimer’s disease and which do not

    PubMed Central

    Chapman, Robert M.; McCrary, John W.; Gardner, Margaret N.; Sandoval, Tiffany C.; Guillily, Maria D.; Reilly, Lindsey A.; DeGrush, Elizabeth

    2009-01-01

    Predicting which individuals will progress to Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is important in both clinical and research settings. We used brain Event-Related Potentials (ERPs) obtained in a perceptual/cognitive paradigm with various processing demands to predict which individual Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI) subjects will develop AD versus which will not. ERP components, including P3, memory “storage” component, and other earlier and later components, were identified and measured by Principal Components Analysis. When measured for particular task conditions, a weighted set of eight ERP component_conditions performed well in discriminant analysis at predicting later AD progression with good accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. The predictions for most individuals (79%) had high posterior probabilities and were accurate (88%). This method, supported by a cross-validation where the prediction accuracy was 70–78%, features the posterior probability for each individual as a method of determining the likelihood of progression to AD. Empirically obtained prediction accuracies rose to 94% when the computed posterior probabilities for individuals were 0.90 or higher (which was found for 40% of our MCI sample). PMID:20005599

  16. Huntington's disease and the ethics of genetic prediction.

    PubMed Central

    Terrenoire, G

    1992-01-01

    What ethical justification can be found for informing a person that he or she will later develop a lethal disease for which no therapy is available? This question has been discussed during the past twenty years by specialists concerned with the prevention of Huntington's Disease, an incurable late-onset hereditary disorder. Many of them have played an active role in developing experimental testing programmes for at-risk persons. This paper is based on a corpus of 119 articles; it reviews the development of their reflection and includes an outline of the ethical problems identified and the solutions adopted in pre-clinical protocols. Seen in a broader perspective, the experience of presymptomatic testing for Huntington's Disease has given medical geneticists the opportunity to clarify their ethical position in the as yet little explored field of predictive medicine. PMID:1535663

  17. Entorhinal cortex thickness predicts cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Velayudhan, Latha; Proitsi, Petroula; Westman, Eric; Muehlboeck, J-Sebastian; Mecocci, Patrizia; Vellas, Bruno; Tsolaki, Magda; Kłoszewska, Iwona; Soininen, Hilkka; Spenger, Christian; Hodges, Angela; Powell, John; Lovestone, Simon; Simmons, Andrew

    2013-01-01

    Biomarkers for Alzheimer's disease (AD) based on non-invasive methods are highly desirable for diagnosis, disease progression, and monitoring therapeutics. We aimed to study the use of hippocampal volume, entorhinal cortex (ERC) thickness, and whole brain volume (WBV) as predictors of cognitive change in patients with AD. 120 AD subjects, 106 mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and 99 non demented controls (NDC) from the multi-center pan-European AddNeuroMed study underwent MRI scanning at baseline and clinical evaluations at quarterly follow-up up to 1 year. The rate of cognitive decline was estimated using cognitive outcomes, Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) and Alzheimer disease assessment scale-cognitive (ADAS-cog) by fitting a random intercept and slope model. AD subjects had smaller ERC thickness and hippocampal and WBV volumes compared to MCI and NDC subjects. Within the AD group, ERC > WBV was significantly associated with baseline cognition (MMSE, ADAS-cog) and disease severity (Clinical Dementia Rating). Baseline ERC thickness was associated with both longitudinal MMSE and ADAS-cog score changes and WBV with ADAS-cog decline. These data indicate that AD subjects with thinner ERC had lower baseline cognitive scores, higher disease severity, and predicted greater subsequent cognitive decline at one year follow up. ERC is a region known to be affected early in the disease. Therefore, the rate of atrophy in this structure is expected to be higher since neurodegeneration begins earlier. Focusing on structural analyses that predict decline can identify those individuals at greatest risk for future cognitive loss. This may have potential for increasing the efficacy of early intervention.

  18. Collective judgment predicts disease-associated single nucleotide variants

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background In recent years the number of human genetic variants deposited into the publicly available databases has been increasing exponentially. The latest version of dbSNP, for example, contains ~50 million validated Single Nucleotide Variants (SNVs). SNVs make up most of human variation and are often the primary causes of disease. The non-synonymous SNVs (nsSNVs) result in single amino acid substitutions and may affect protein function, often causing disease. Although several methods for the detection of nsSNV effects have already been developed, the consistent increase in annotated data is offering the opportunity to improve prediction accuracy. Results Here we present a new approach for the detection of disease-associated nsSNVs (Meta-SNP) that integrates four existing methods: PANTHER, PhD-SNP, SIFT and SNAP. We first tested the accuracy of each method using a dataset of 35,766 disease-annotated mutations from 8,667 proteins extracted from the SwissVar database. The four methods reached overall accuracies of 64%-76% with a Matthew's correlation coefficient (MCC) of 0.38-0.53. We then used the outputs of these methods to develop a machine learning based approach that discriminates between disease-associated and polymorphic variants (Meta-SNP). In testing, the combined method reached 79% overall accuracy and 0.59 MCC, ~3% higher accuracy and ~0.05 higher correlation with respect to the best-performing method. Moreover, for the hardest-to-define subset of nsSNVs, i.e. variants for which half of the predictors disagreed with the other half, Meta-SNP attained 8% higher accuracy than the best predictor. Conclusions Here we find that the Meta-SNP algorithm achieves better performance than the best single predictor. This result suggests that the methods used for the prediction of variant-disease associations are orthogonal, encoding different biologically relevant relationships. Careful combination of predictions from various resources is therefore a good strategy

  19. Prediction of iron deficiency in chronic inflammatory rheumatic disease anaemia.

    PubMed

    Baumann Kurer, S; Seifert, B; Michel, B; Ruegg, R; Fehr, J

    1995-12-01

    We prospectively studied 45 anaemic patients (37 women, 8 men) with chronic inflammatory rheumatic diseases. The combination of serum ferritin and CRP (as well as ESR) in its predictive capacity for bone marrow iron stores was examined. The relationship between other iron-related measurements (transferrin, transferrin saturation, soluble transferrin receptor, erythrocyte porphyrins and percentage of hypochromic/microcytic erythrocytes) and bone marrow iron stores was also investigated. Stainable bone marrow iron was taken as the most suitable standard to separate iron-deficient from iron-replete patients. 14 patients (31%) were lacking bone marrow iron. Regression analysis showed a good correlation between ferritin and bone marrow iron (adjusted R2 = 0.721, P < 0.0001). The combination of ferritin and CRP (ESR) did not improve the predictive power for bone marrow iron (adjusted R2 = 0.715) in this cohort of patients with low systemic inflammatory activity. With respect to the bone marrow iron content the best predictive cut-off value of ferritin was 30 micrograms/l (86% sensitivity, 90% specificity). The other iron-related parameters both individually and when combined were less powerful in predicting bone marrow iron than ferritin alone. Only zinc bound erythrocyte protoporphyrin in combination with ferritin slightly improved prediction (adjusted R2 = 0.731). A cut-off point of 11% hypochromic erythrocytes reached a high specificity (90%), but was less sensitive (77%).

  20. The Reliability of Classification of Terminal Nodes in GUIDE Decision Tree to Predict the Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

    PubMed

    Birjandi, Mehdi; Ayatollahi, Seyyed Mohammad Taghi; Pourahmad, Saeedeh

    2016-01-01

    Tree structured modeling is a data mining technique used to recursively partition a dataset into relatively homogeneous subgroups in order to make more accurate predictions on generated classes. One of the classification tree induction algorithms, GUIDE, is a nonparametric method with suitable accuracy and low bias selection, which is used for predicting binary classes based on many predictors. In this tree, evaluating the accuracy of predicted classes (terminal nodes) is clinically of special importance. For this purpose, we used GUIDE classification tree in two statuses of equal and unequal misclassification cost in order to predict nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), considering 30 predictors. Then, to evaluate the accuracy of predicted classes by using bootstrap method, first the classification reliability in which individuals are assigned to a unique class and next the prediction probability reliability as support for that are considered.

  1. The Reliability of Classification of Terminal Nodes in GUIDE Decision Tree to Predict the Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease

    PubMed Central

    Pourahmad, Saeedeh

    2016-01-01

    Tree structured modeling is a data mining technique used to recursively partition a dataset into relatively homogeneous subgroups in order to make more accurate predictions on generated classes. One of the classification tree induction algorithms, GUIDE, is a nonparametric method with suitable accuracy and low bias selection, which is used for predicting binary classes based on many predictors. In this tree, evaluating the accuracy of predicted classes (terminal nodes) is clinically of special importance. For this purpose, we used GUIDE classification tree in two statuses of equal and unequal misclassification cost in order to predict nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), considering 30 predictors. Then, to evaluate the accuracy of predicted classes by using bootstrap method, first the classification reliability in which individuals are assigned to a unique class and next the prediction probability reliability as support for that are considered. PMID:28053651

  2. Increased brain-predicted aging in treated HIV disease

    PubMed Central

    Underwood, Jonathan; Caan, Matthan W.A.; De Francesco, Davide; van Zoest, Rosan A.; Leech, Robert; Wit, Ferdinand W.N.M.; Portegies, Peter; Geurtsen, Gert J.; Schmand, Ben A.; Schim van der Loeff, Maarten F.; Franceschi, Claudio; Sabin, Caroline A.; Majoie, Charles B.L.M.; Winston, Alan; Reiss, Peter; Sharp, David J.

    2017-01-01

    Objective: To establish whether HIV disease is associated with abnormal levels of age-related brain atrophy, by estimating apparent brain age using neuroimaging and exploring whether these estimates related to HIV status, age, cognitive performance, and HIV-related clinical parameters. Methods: A large sample of virologically suppressed HIV-positive adults (n = 162, age 45–82 years) and highly comparable HIV-negative controls (n = 105) were recruited as part of the Comorbidity in Relation to AIDS (COBRA) collaboration. Using T1-weighted MRI scans, a machine-learning model of healthy brain aging was defined in an independent cohort (n = 2,001, aged 18–90 years). Neuroimaging data from HIV-positive and HIV-negative individuals were then used to estimate brain-predicted age; then brain-predicted age difference (brain-PAD = brain-predicted brain age − chronological age) scores were calculated. Neuropsychological and clinical assessments were also carried out. Results: HIV-positive individuals had greater brain-PAD score (mean ± SD 2.15 ± 7.79 years) compared to HIV-negative individuals (−0.87 ± 8.40 years; b = 3.48, p < 0.01). Increased brain-PAD score was associated with decreased performance in multiple cognitive domains (information processing speed, executive function, memory) and general cognitive performance across all participants. Brain-PAD score was not associated with age, duration of HIV infection, or other HIV-related measures. Conclusion: Increased apparent brain aging, predicted using neuroimaging, was observed in HIV-positive adults, despite effective viral suppression. Furthermore, the magnitude of increased apparent brain aging related to cognitive deficits. However, predicted brain age difference did not correlate with chronological age or duration of HIV infection, suggesting that HIV disease may accentuate rather than accelerate brain aging. PMID:28258081

  3. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints.

    PubMed

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-02-24

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS-inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car.

  4. An Accurate GPS-IMU/DR Data Fusion Method for Driverless Car Based on a Set of Predictive Models and Grid Constraints

    PubMed Central

    Wang, Shiyao; Deng, Zhidong; Yin, Gang

    2016-01-01

    A high-performance differential global positioning system (GPS)  receiver with real time kinematics provides absolute localization for driverless cars. However, it is not only susceptible to multipath effect but also unable to effectively fulfill precise error correction in a wide range of driving areas. This paper proposes an accurate GPS–inertial measurement unit (IMU)/dead reckoning (DR) data fusion method based on a set of predictive models and occupancy grid constraints. First, we employ a set of autoregressive and moving average (ARMA) equations that have different structural parameters to build maximum likelihood models of raw navigation. Second, both grid constraints and spatial consensus checks on all predictive results and current measurements are required to have removal of outliers. Navigation data that satisfy stationary stochastic process are further fused to achieve accurate localization results. Third, the standard deviation of multimodal data fusion can be pre-specified by grid size. Finally, we perform a lot of field tests on a diversity of real urban scenarios. The experimental results demonstrate that the method can significantly smooth small jumps in bias and considerably reduce accumulated position errors due to DR. With low computational complexity, the position accuracy of our method surpasses existing state-of-the-arts on the same dataset and the new data fusion method is practically applied in our driverless car. PMID:26927108

  5. Profile-QSAR: a novel meta-QSAR method that combines activities across the kinase family to accurately predict affinity, selectivity, and cellular activity.

    PubMed

    Martin, Eric; Mukherjee, Prasenjit; Sullivan, David; Jansen, Johanna

    2011-08-22

    Profile-QSAR is a novel 2D predictive model building method for kinases. This "meta-QSAR" method models the activity of each compound against a new kinase target as a linear combination of its predicted activities against a large panel of 92 previously studied kinases comprised from 115 assays. Profile-QSAR starts with a sparse incomplete kinase by compound (KxC) activity matrix, used to generate Bayesian QSAR models for the 92 "basis-set" kinases. These Bayesian QSARs generate a complete "synthetic" KxC activity matrix of predictions. These synthetic activities are used as "chemical descriptors" to train partial-least squares (PLS) models, from modest amounts of medium-throughput screening data, for predicting activity against new kinases. The Profile-QSAR predictions for the 92 kinases (115 assays) gave a median external R²(ext) = 0.59 on 25% held-out test sets. The method has proven accurate enough to predict pairwise kinase selectivities with a median correlation of R²(ext) = 0.61 for 958 kinase pairs with at least 600 common compounds. It has been further expanded by adding a "C(k)XC" cellular activity matrix to the KxC matrix to predict cellular activity for 42 kinase driven cellular assays with median R²(ext) = 0.58 for 24 target modulation assays and R²(ext) = 0.41 for 18 cell proliferation assays. The 2D Profile-QSAR, along with the 3D Surrogate AutoShim, are the foundations of an internally developed iterative medium-throughput screening (IMTS) methodology for virtual screening (VS) of compound archives as an alternative to experimental high-throughput screening (HTS). The method has been applied to 20 actual prospective kinase projects. Biological results have so far been obtained in eight of them. Q² values ranged from 0.3 to 0.7. Hit-rates at 10 uM for experimentally tested compounds varied from 25% to 80%, except in K5, which was a special case aimed specifically at finding "type II" binders, where none of the compounds were predicted to be

  6. Multireference correlation consistent composite approach [MR-ccCA]: toward accurate prediction of the energetics of excited and transition state chemistry.

    PubMed

    Oyedepo, Gbenga A; Wilson, Angela K

    2010-08-26

    The correlation consistent Composite Approach, ccCA [ Deyonker , N. J. ; Cundari , T. R. ; Wilson , A. K. J. Chem. Phys. 2006 , 124 , 114104 ] has been demonstrated to predict accurate thermochemical properties of chemical species that can be described by a single configurational reference state, and at reduced computational cost, as compared with ab initio methods such as CCSD(T) used in combination with large basis sets. We have developed three variants of a multireference equivalent of this successful theoretical model. The method, called the multireference correlation consistent composite approach (MR-ccCA), is designed to predict the thermochemical properties of reactive intermediates, excited state species, and transition states to within chemical accuracy (e.g., 1 kcal/mol for enthalpies of formation) of reliable experimental values. In this study, we have demonstrated the utility of MR-ccCA: (1) in the determination of the adiabatic singlet-triplet energy separations and enthalpies of formation for the ground states for a set of diradicals and unsaturated compounds, and (2) in the prediction of energetic barriers to internal rotation, in ethylene and its heavier congener, disilene. Additionally, we have utilized MR-ccCA to predict the enthalpies of formation of the low-lying excited states of all the species considered. MR-ccCA is shown to give quantitative results without reliance upon empirically derived parameters, making it suitable for application to study novel chemical systems with significant nondynamical correlation effects.

  7. A yeast functional screen predicts new candidate ALS disease genes

    PubMed Central

    Couthouis, Julien; Hart, Michael P.; Shorter, James; DeJesus-Hernandez, Mariely; Erion, Renske; Oristano, Rachel; Liu, Annie X.; Ramos, Daniel; Jethava, Niti; Hosangadi, Divya; Epstein, James; Chiang, Ashley; Diaz, Zamia; Nakaya, Tadashi; Ibrahim, Fadia; Kim, Hyung-Jun; Solski, Jennifer A.; Williams, Kelly L.; Mojsilovic-Petrovic, Jelena; Ingre, Caroline; Boylan, Kevin; Graff-Radford, Neill R.; Dickson, Dennis W.; Clay-Falcone, Dana; Elman, Lauren; McCluskey, Leo; Greene, Robert; Kalb, Robert G.; Lee, Virginia M.-Y.; Trojanowski, John Q.; Ludolph, Albert; Robberecht, Wim; Andersen, Peter M.; Nicholson, Garth A.; Blair, Ian P.; King, Oliver D.; Bonini, Nancy M.; Van Deerlin, Vivianna; Rademakers, Rosa; Mourelatos, Zissimos; Gitler, Aaron D.

    2011-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating and universally fatal neurodegenerative disease. Mutations in two related RNA-binding proteins, TDP-43 and FUS, that harbor prion-like domains, cause some forms of ALS. There are at least 213 human proteins harboring RNA recognition motifs, including FUS and TDP-43, raising the possibility that additional RNA-binding proteins might contribute to ALS pathogenesis. We performed a systematic survey of these proteins to find additional candidates similar to TDP-43 and FUS, followed by bioinformatics to predict prion-like domains in a subset of them. We sequenced one of these genes, TAF15, in patients with ALS and identified missense variants, which were absent in a large number of healthy controls. These disease-associated variants of TAF15 caused formation of cytoplasmic foci when expressed in primary cultures of spinal cord neurons. Very similar to TDP-43 and FUS, TAF15 aggregated in vitro and conferred neurodegeneration in Drosophila, with the ALS-linked variants having a more severe effect than wild type. Immunohistochemistry of postmortem spinal cord tissue revealed mislocalization of TAF15 in motor neurons of patients with ALS. We propose that aggregation-prone RNA-binding proteins might contribute very broadly to ALS pathogenesis and the genes identified in our yeast functional screen, coupled with prion-like domain prediction analysis, now provide a powerful resource to facilitate ALS disease gene discovery. PMID:22065782

  8. Patients with Parkinson's disease can employ a predictive motor strategy.

    PubMed Central

    Day, B L; Dick, J P; Marsden, C D

    1984-01-01

    We have tested the hypothesis that predictive motor behaviour is abnormal in Parkinson's disease. In the first experiment elbow movements were performed to track a moving spot on an oscilloscope screen. The performance of 12 patients with Parkinson's disease and eight age-matched control subjects was measured when tracking a repeated pattern under two conditions. In the first condition subjects were not aware of the repetitive nature of the tracking task whilst in the second condition they were. For both groups tracking error and tracking lag were less when aware of the repetition. In the second experiment wrist movements were studied. Five age-matched controls were compared with five patients, studied on and off drugs. In this experiment the performance tracking a repeated pattern was compared to that tracking unpredictable patterns. Tracking lags were reduced to very low values (less than 20 ms) in response to the repeated pattern for both groups. This was true even when the patients were relatively immobile off drugs. We conclude that patients with Parkinson's disease are capable of predictive motor behaviour although such a strategy does not always confer as great an advantage in reducing tracking error in patients compared with control subjects. PMID:6512550

  9. Anonymous predictive testing for Huntington's disease in the United States.

    PubMed

    Visintainer, C L; Matthias-Hagen, V; Nance, M A

    2001-01-01

    The widespread use of a predictive genetic test for Huntington's disease (HD) since 1993 has brought to the forefront issues regarding genetic privacy. Although the possibility of anonymous genetic testing has been discussed, its use in the United States has not been described previously. We review the experiences of 11 genetics specialists with anonymous predictive testing for HD. We found that more men than women requested anonymous testing, for reasons that more often related to personal privacy than to insurance or discrimination concerns. A number of approaches to anonymity were used, and genetics specialists varied in the degree to which they were comfortable with the process. A number of legal, medical, and practical questions are raised, which will require resolution if anonymous testing is to be performed with a greater frequency in the future.

  10. Geometry-based pressure drop prediction in mildly diseased human coronary arteries.

    PubMed

    Schrauwen, J T C; Wentzel, J J; van der Steen, A F W; Gijsen, F J H

    2014-06-03

    Pressure drop (△p) estimations in human coronary arteries have several important applications, including determination of appropriate boundary conditions for CFD and estimation of fractional flow reserve (FFR). In this study a △p prediction was made based on geometrical features derived from patient-specific imaging data. Twenty-two mildly diseased human coronary arteries were imaged with computed tomography and intravascular ultrasound. Each artery was modelled in three consecutive steps: from straight to tapered, to stenosed, to curved model. CFD was performed to compute the additional △p in each model under steady flow for a wide range of Reynolds numbers. The correlations between the added geometrical complexity and additional △p were used to compute a predicted △p. This predicted △p based on geometry was compared to CFD results. The mean △p calculated with CFD was 855±666Pa. Tapering and curvature added significantly to the total △p, accounting for 31.4±19.0% and 18.0±10.9% respectively at Re=250. Using tapering angle, maximum area stenosis and angularity of the centerline, we were able to generate a good estimate for the predicted △p with a low mean but high standard deviation: average error of 41.1±287.8Pa at Re=250. Furthermore, the predicted △p was used to accurately estimate FFR (r=0.93). The effect of the geometric features was determined and the pressure drop in mildly diseased human coronary arteries was predicted quickly based solely on geometry. This pressure drop estimation could serve as a boundary condition in CFD to model the impact of distal epicardial vessels.

  11. Neurodegenerative diseases: quantitative predictions of protein-RNA interactions.

    PubMed

    Cirillo, Davide; Agostini, Federico; Klus, Petr; Marchese, Domenica; Rodriguez, Silvia; Bolognesi, Benedetta; Tartaglia, Gian Gaetano

    2013-02-01

    Increasing evidence indicates that RNA plays an active role in a number of neurodegenerative diseases. We recently introduced a theoretical framework, catRAPID, to predict the binding ability of protein and RNA molecules. Here, we use catRAPID to investigate ribonucleoprotein interactions linked to inherited intellectual disability, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Creutzfeuld-Jakob, Alzheimer's, and Parkinson's diseases. We specifically focus on (1) RNA interactions with fragile X mental retardation protein FMRP; (2) protein sequestration caused by CGG repeats; (3) noncoding transcripts regulated by TAR DNA-binding protein 43 TDP-43; (4) autogenous regulation of TDP-43 and FMRP; (5) iron-mediated expression of amyloid precursor protein APP and α-synuclein; (6) interactions between prions and RNA aptamers. Our results are in striking agreement with experimental evidence and provide new insights in processes associated with neuronal function and misfunction.

  12. How to predict clinical relapse in inflammatory bowel disease patients

    PubMed Central

    Liverani, Elisa; Scaioli, Eleonora; Digby, Richard John; Bellanova, Matteo; Belluzzi, Andrea

    2016-01-01

    Inflammatory bowel diseases have a natural course characterized by alternating periods of remission and relapse. Disease flares occur in a random way and are currently unpredictable for the most part. Predictors of benign or unfavourable clinical course are required to facilitate treatment decisions and to avoid overtreatment. The present article provides a literature review of the current evidence on the main clinical, genetic, endoscopic, histologic, serologic and fecal markers to predict aggressiveness of inflammatory bowel disease and discuss their prognostic role, both in Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis. No single marker seems to be reliable alone as a flare predictor, even in light of promising evidence regarding the role of fecal markers, in particular fecal calprotectin, which has reported good results recently. In order to improve our daily clinical practice, validated prognostic scores should be elaborated, integrating clinical and biological markers of prognosis. Finally, we propose an algorithm considering clinical history and biological markers to intercept patients with high risk of clinical relapse. PMID:26811644

  13. Adolescents' Sexually Transmitted Disease Protective Attitudes Predict Sexually Transmitted Disease Acquisition in Early Adulthood

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Crosby, Richard A.; Danner, Fred

    2008-01-01

    Background: Estimates suggest that about 48% of nearly 19 million cases of sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) occurring annually in the United States are acquired by persons aged 15-24 years. The purpose of this study was to test the hypothesis that adolescents' attitudes about protecting themselves from STDs predict their laboratory-confirmed…

  14. Unprecedently Large-Scale Kinase Inhibitor Set Enabling the Accurate Prediction of Compound–Kinase Activities: A Way toward Selective Promiscuity by Design?

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Drug discovery programs frequently target members of the human kinome and try to identify small molecule protein kinase inhibitors, primarily for cancer treatment, additional indications being increasingly investigated. One of the challenges is controlling the inhibitors degree of selectivity, assessed by in vitro profiling against panels of protein kinases. We manually extracted, compiled, and standardized such profiles published in the literature: we collected 356 908 data points corresponding to 482 protein kinases, 2106 inhibitors, and 661 patents. We then analyzed this data set in terms of kinome coverage, results reproducibility, popularity, and degree of selectivity of both kinases and inhibitors. We used the data set to create robust proteochemometric models capable of predicting kinase activity (the ligand–target space was modeled with an externally validated RMSE of 0.41 ± 0.02 log units and R02 0.74 ± 0.03), in order to account for missing or unreliable measurements. The influence on the prediction quality of parameters such as number of measurements, Murcko scaffold frequency or inhibitor type was assessed. Interpretation of the models enabled to highlight inhibitors and kinases properties correlated with higher affinities, and an analysis in the context of kinases crystal structures was performed. Overall, the models quality allows the accurate prediction of kinase-inhibitor activities and their structural interpretation, thus paving the way for the rational design of compounds with a targeted selectivity profile. PMID:27482722

  15. Identification of fidgety movements and prediction of CP by the use of computer-based video analysis is more accurate when based on two video recordings.

    PubMed

    Adde, Lars; Helbostad, Jorunn; Jensenius, Alexander R; Langaas, Mette; Støen, Ragnhild

    2013-08-01

    This study evaluates the role of postterm age at assessment and the use of one or two video recordings for the detection of fidgety movements (FMs) and prediction of cerebral palsy (CP) using computer vision software. Recordings between 9 and 17 weeks postterm age from 52 preterm and term infants (24 boys, 28 girls; 26 born preterm) were used. Recordings were analyzed using computer vision software. Movement variables, derived from differences between subsequent video frames, were used for quantitative analysis. Sensitivities, specificities, and area under curve were estimated for the first and second recording, or a mean of both. FMs were classified based on the Prechtl approach of general movement assessment. CP status was reported at 2 years. Nine children developed CP of whom all recordings had absent FMs. The mean variability of the centroid of motion (CSD) from two recordings was more accurate than using only one recording, and identified all children who were diagnosed with CP at 2 years. Age at assessment did not influence the detection of FMs or prediction of CP. The accuracy of computer vision techniques in identifying FMs and predicting CP based on two recordings should be confirmed in future studies.

  16. Graph-guided joint prediction of class label and clinical scores for the Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Yu, Guan; Liu, Yufeng; Shen, Dinggang

    2016-09-01

    Accurate diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease and its prodromal stage, i.e., mild cognitive impairment, is very important for early treatment. Over the last decade, various machine learning methods have been proposed to predict disease status and clinical scores from brain images. It is worth noting that many features extracted from brain images are correlated significantly. In this case, feature selection combined with the additional correlation information among features can effectively improve classification/regression performance. Typically, the correlation information among features can be modeled by the connectivity of an undirected graph, where each node represents one feature and each edge indicates that the two involved features are correlated significantly. In this paper, we propose a new graph-guided multi-task learning method incorporating this undirected graph information to predict multiple response variables (i.e., class label and clinical scores) jointly. Specifically, based on the sparse undirected feature graph, we utilize a new latent group Lasso penalty to encourage the correlated features to be selected together. Furthermore, this new penalty also encourages the intrinsic correlated tasks to share a common feature subset. To validate our method, we have performed many numerical studies using simulated datasets and the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative dataset. Compared with the other methods, our proposed method has very promising performance.

  17. A text mining approach to the prediction of disease status from clinical discharge summaries.

    PubMed

    Yang, Hui; Spasic, Irena; Keane, John A; Nenadic, Goran

    2009-01-01

    OBJECTIVE The authors present a system developed for the Challenge in Natural Language Processing for Clinical Data-the i2b2 obesity challenge, whose aim was to automatically identify the status of obesity and 15 related co-morbidities in patients using their clinical discharge summaries. The challenge consisted of two tasks, textual and intuitive. The textual task was to identify explicit references to the diseases, whereas the intuitive task focused on the prediction of the disease status when the evidence was not explicitly asserted. DESIGN The authors assembled a set of resources to lexically and semantically profile the diseases and their associated symptoms, treatments, etc. These features were explored in a hybrid text mining approach, which combined dictionary look-up, rule-based, and machine-learning methods. MEASUREMENTS The methods were applied on a set of 507 previously unseen discharge summaries, and the predictions were evaluated against a manually prepared gold standard. The overall ranking of the participating teams was primarily based on the macro-averaged F-measure. RESULTS The implemented method achieved the macro-averaged F-measure of 81% for the textual task (which was the highest achieved in the challenge) and 63% for the intuitive task (ranked 7(th) out of 28 teams-the highest was 66%). The micro-averaged F-measure showed an average accuracy of 97% for textual and 96% for intuitive annotations. CONCLUSIONS The performance achieved was in line with the agreement between human annotators, indicating the potential of text mining for accurate and efficient prediction of disease statuses from clinical discharge summaries.

  18. The PROPKD Score: A New Algorithm to Predict Renal Survival in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.

    PubMed

    Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Rousseau, Annick; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Renaudineau, Eric; Charasse, Christophe; Morin, Marie-Pascale; Moal, Marie-Christine; Dantal, Jacques; Wehbe, Bassem; Perrichot, Régine; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Potier, Jérôme; Jousset, Philippe; Guillodo, Marie-Paule; Siohan, Pascale; Terki, Nazim; Sawadogo, Théophile; Legrand, Didier; Menoyo-Calonge, Victorio; Benarbia, Seddik; Besnier, Dominique; Longuet, Hélène; Férec, Claude; Le Meur, Yannick

    2016-03-01

    The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) varies among individuals, with some reaching ESRD before 40 years of age and others never requiring RRT. In this study, we developed a prognostic model to predict renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD on the basis of genetic and clinical data. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1341 patients from the Genkyst cohort and evaluated the influence of clinical and genetic factors on renal survival. Multivariate survival analysis identified four variables that were significantly associated with age at ESRD onset, and a scoring system from 0 to 9 was developed as follows: being male: 1 point; hypertension before 35 years of age: 2 points; first urologic event before 35 years of age: 2 points; PKD2 mutation: 0 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; and truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points. Three risk categories were subsequently defined as low risk (0-3 points), intermediate risk (4-6 points), and high risk (7-9 points) of progression to ESRD, with corresponding median ages for ESRD onset of 70.6, 56.9, and 49 years, respectively. Whereas a score ≤3 eliminates evolution to ESRD before 60 years of age with a negative predictive value of 81.4%, a score >6 forecasts ESRD onset before 60 years of age with a positive predictive value of 90.9%. This new prognostic score accurately predicts renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD and may enable the personalization of therapeutic management of ADPKD.

  19. Dose Addition Models Based on Biologically Relevant Reductions in Fetal Testosterone Accurately Predict Postnatal Reproductive Tract Alterations by a Phthalate Mixture in Rats

    PubMed Central

    Howdeshell, Kembra L.; Rider, Cynthia V.; Wilson, Vickie S.; Furr, Johnathan R.; Lambright, Christy R.; Gray, L. Earl

    2015-01-01

    Challenges in cumulative risk assessment of anti-androgenic phthalate mixtures include a lack of data on all the individual phthalates and difficulty determining the biological relevance of reduction in fetal testosterone (T) on postnatal development. The objectives of the current study were 2-fold: (1) to test whether a mixture model of dose addition based on the fetal T production data of individual phthalates would predict the effects of a 5 phthalate mixture on androgen-sensitive postnatal male reproductive tract development, and (2) to determine the biological relevance of the reductions in fetal T to induce abnormal postnatal reproductive tract development using data from the mixture study. We administered a dose range of the mixture (60, 40, 20, 10, and 5% of the top dose used in the previous fetal T production study consisting of 300 mg/kg per chemical of benzyl butyl (BBP), di(n)butyl (DBP), diethyl hexyl phthalate (DEHP), di-isobutyl phthalate (DiBP), and 100 mg dipentyl (DPP) phthalate/kg; the individual phthalates were present in equipotent doses based on their ability to reduce fetal T production) via gavage to Sprague Dawley rat dams on GD8-postnatal day 3. We compared observed mixture responses to predictions of dose addition based on the previously published potencies of the individual phthalates to reduce fetal T production relative to a reference chemical and published postnatal data for the reference chemical (called DAref). In addition, we predicted DA (called DAall) and response addition (RA) based on logistic regression analysis of all 5 individual phthalates when complete data were available. DA ref and DA all accurately predicted the observed mixture effect for 11 of 14 endpoints. Furthermore, reproductive tract malformations were seen in 17–100% of F1 males when fetal T production was reduced by about 25–72%, respectively. PMID:26350170

  20. Absolute Measurements of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and Interleukin-1-β mRNA Levels Accurately Predict Treatment Response in Depressed Patients

    PubMed Central

    Ferrari, Clarissa; Uher, Rudolf; Bocchio-Chiavetto, Luisella; Riva, Marco Andrea; Pariante, Carmine M.

    2016-01-01

    Background: Increased levels of inflammation have been associated with a poorer response to antidepressants in several clinical samples, but these findings have had been limited by low reproducibility of biomarker assays across laboratories, difficulty in predicting response probability on an individual basis, and unclear molecular mechanisms. Methods: Here we measured absolute mRNA values (a reliable quantitation of number of molecules) of Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and interleukin-1β in a previously published sample from a randomized controlled trial comparing escitalopram vs nortriptyline (GENDEP) as well as in an independent, naturalistic replication sample. We then used linear discriminant analysis to calculate mRNA values cutoffs that best discriminated between responders and nonresponders after 12 weeks of antidepressants. As Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor and interleukin-1β might be involved in different pathways, we constructed a protein-protein interaction network by the Search Tool for the Retrieval of Interacting Genes/Proteins. Results: We identified cutoff values for the absolute mRNA measures that accurately predicted response probability on an individual basis, with positive predictive values and specificity for nonresponders of 100% in both samples (negative predictive value=82% to 85%, sensitivity=52% to 61%). Using network analysis, we identified different clusters of targets for these 2 cytokines, with Macrophage Migration Inhibitory Factor interacting predominantly with pathways involved in neurogenesis, neuroplasticity, and cell proliferation, and interleukin-1β interacting predominantly with pathways involved in the inflammasome complex, oxidative stress, and neurodegeneration. Conclusion: We believe that these data provide a clinically suitable approach to the personalization of antidepressant therapy: patients who have absolute mRNA values above the suggested cutoffs could be directed toward earlier access to more

  1. Integrative EEG biomarkers predict progression to Alzheimer's disease at the MCI stage

    PubMed Central

    Poil, Simon-Shlomo; de Haan, Willem; van der Flier, Wiesje M.; Mansvelder, Huibert D.; Scheltens, Philip; Linkenkaer-Hansen, Klaus

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a devastating disorder of increasing prevalence in modern society. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is considered a transitional stage between normal aging and AD; however, not all subjects with MCI progress to AD. Prediction of conversion to AD at an early stage would enable an earlier, and potentially more effective, treatment of AD. Electroencephalography (EEG) biomarkers would provide a non-invasive and relatively cheap screening tool to predict conversion to AD; however, traditional EEG biomarkers have not been considered accurate enough to be useful in clinical practice. Here, we aim to combine the information from multiple EEG biomarkers into a diagnostic classification index in order to improve the accuracy of predicting conversion from MCI to AD within a 2-year period. We followed 86 patients initially diagnosed with MCI for 2 years during which 25 patients converted to AD. We show that multiple EEG biomarkers mainly related to activity in the beta-frequency range (13–30 Hz) can predict conversion from MCI to AD. Importantly, by integrating six EEG biomarkers into a diagnostic index using logistic regression the prediction improved compared with the classification using the individual biomarkers, with a sensitivity of 88% and specificity of 82%, compared with a sensitivity of 64% and specificity of 62% of the best individual biomarker in this index. In order to identify this diagnostic index we developed a data mining approach implemented in the Neurophysiological Biomarker Toolbox (http://www.nbtwiki.net/). We suggest that this approach can be used to identify optimal combinations of biomarkers (integrative biomarkers) also in other modalities. Potentially, these integrative biomarkers could be more sensitive to disease progression and response to therapeutic intervention. PMID:24106478

  2. Predicting disease-related proteins based on clique backbone in protein-protein interaction network.

    PubMed

    Yang, Lei; Zhao, Xudong; Tang, Xianglong

    2014-01-01

    Network biology integrates different kinds of data, including physical or functional networks and disease gene sets, to interpret human disease. A clique (maximal complete subgraph) in a protein-protein interaction network is a topological module and possesses inherently biological significance. A disease-related clique possibly associates with complex diseases. Fully identifying disease components in a clique is conductive to uncovering disease mechanisms. This paper proposes an approach of predicting disease proteins based on cliques in a protein-protein interaction network. To tolerate false positive and negative interactions in protein networks, extending cliques and scoring predicted disease proteins with gene ontology terms are introduced to the clique-based method. Precisions of predicted disease proteins are verified by disease phenotypes and steadily keep to more than 95%. The predicted disease proteins associated with cliques can partly complement mapping between genotype and phenotype, and provide clues for understanding the pathogenesis of serious diseases.

  3. Discovery of a general method of solving the Schrödinger and dirac equations that opens a way to accurately predictive quantum chemistry.

    PubMed

    Nakatsuji, Hiroshi

    2012-09-18

    Just as Newtonian law governs classical physics, the Schrödinger equation (SE) and the relativistic Dirac equation (DE) rule the world of chemistry. So, if we can solve these equations accurately, we can use computation to predict chemistry precisely. However, for approximately 80 years after the discovery of these equations, chemists believed that they could not solve SE and DE for atoms and molecules that included many electrons. This Account reviews ideas developed over the past decade to further the goal of predictive quantum chemistry. Between 2000 and 2005, I discovered a general method of solving the SE and DE accurately. As a first inspiration, I formulated the structure of the exact wave function of the SE in a compact mathematical form. The explicit inclusion of the exact wave function's structure within the variational space allows for the calculation of the exact wave function as a solution of the variational method. Although this process sounds almost impossible, it is indeed possible, and I have published several formulations and applied them to solve the full configuration interaction (CI) with a very small number of variables. However, when I examined analytical solutions for atoms and molecules, the Hamiltonian integrals in their secular equations diverged. This singularity problem occurred in all atoms and molecules because it originates from the singularity of the Coulomb potential in their Hamiltonians. To overcome this problem, I first introduced the inverse SE and then the scaled SE. The latter simpler idea led to immediate and surprisingly accurate solution for the SEs of the hydrogen atom, helium atom, and hydrogen molecule. The free complement (FC) method, also called the free iterative CI (free ICI) method, was efficient for solving the SEs. In the FC method, the basis functions that span the exact wave function are produced by the Hamiltonian of the system and the zeroth-order wave function. These basis functions are called complement

  4. Current Challenges in Glioblastoma: Intratumour Heterogeneity, Residual Disease, and Models to Predict Disease Recurrence.

    PubMed

    Ellis, Hayley P; Greenslade, Mark; Powell, Ben; Spiteri, Inmaculada; Sottoriva, Andrea; Kurian, Kathreena M

    2015-01-01

    Glioblastoma (GB) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor, and despite the availability of chemotherapy and radiotherapy to combat the disease, overall survival remains low with a high incidence of tumor recurrence. Technological advances are continually improving our understanding of the disease, and in particular, our knowledge of clonal evolution, intratumor heterogeneity, and possible reservoirs of residual disease. These may inform how we approach clinical treatment and recurrence in GB. Mathematical modeling (including neural networks) and strategies such as multiple sampling during tumor resection and genetic analysis of circulating cancer cells, may be of great future benefit to help predict the nature of residual disease and resistance to standard and molecular therapies in GB.

  5. Current Challenges in Glioblastoma: Intratumour Heterogeneity, Residual Disease, and Models to Predict Disease Recurrence

    PubMed Central

    Ellis, Hayley P.; Greenslade, Mark; Powell, Ben; Spiteri, Inmaculada; Sottoriva, Andrea; Kurian, Kathreena M.

    2015-01-01

    Glioblastoma (GB) is the most common primary malignant brain tumor, and despite the availability of chemotherapy and radiotherapy to combat the disease, overall survival remains low with a high incidence of tumor recurrence. Technological advances are continually improving our understanding of the disease, and in particular, our knowledge of clonal evolution, intratumor heterogeneity, and possible reservoirs of residual disease. These may inform how we approach clinical treatment and recurrence in GB. Mathematical modeling (including neural networks) and strategies such as multiple sampling during tumor resection and genetic analysis of circulating cancer cells, may be of great future benefit to help predict the nature of residual disease and resistance to standard and molecular therapies in GB. PMID:26636033

  6. Voxelwise spectral diffusional connectivity and its applications to Alzheimer's disease and intelligence prediction.

    PubMed

    Li, Junning; Jin, Yan; Shi, Yonggang; Dinov, Ivo D; Wang, Danny J; Toga, Arthur W; Thompson, Paul M

    2013-01-01

    Human brain connectivity can be studied using graph theory. Many connectivity studies parcellate the brain into regions and count fibres extracted between them. The resulting network analyses require validation of the tractography, as well as region and parameter selection. Here we investigate whole brain connectivity from a different perspective. We propose a mathematical formulation based on studying the eigenvalues of the Laplacian matrix of the diffusion tensor field at the voxel level. This voxelwise matrix has over a million parameters, but we derive the Kirchhoff complexity and eigen-spectrum through elegant mathematical theorems, without heavy computation. We use these novel measures to accurately estimate the voxelwise connectivity in multiple biomedical applications such as Alzheimer's disease and intelligence prediction.

  7. How Accurately Can Extended X-ray Absorption Spectra Be Predicted from First Principles? Implications for Modeling the Oxygen-Evolving Complex in Photosystem II.

    PubMed

    Beckwith, Martha A; Ames, William; Vila, Fernando D; Krewald, Vera; Pantazis, Dimitrios A; Mantel, Claire; Pécaut, Jacques; Gennari, Marcello; Duboc, Carole; Collomb, Marie-Noëlle; Yano, Junko; Rehr, John J; Neese, Frank; DeBeer, Serena

    2015-10-14

    First principle calculations of extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) data have seen widespread use in bioinorganic chemistry, perhaps most notably for modeling the Mn4Ca site in the oxygen evolving complex (OEC) of photosystem II (PSII). The logic implied by the calculations rests on the assumption that it is possible to a priori predict an accurate EXAFS spectrum provided that the underlying geometric structure is correct. The present study investigates the extent to which this is possible using state of the art EXAFS theory. The FEFF program is used to evaluate the ability of a multiple scattering-based approach to directly calculate the EXAFS spectrum of crystallographically defined model complexes. The results of these parameter free predictions are compared with the more traditional approach of fitting FEFF calculated spectra to experimental data. A series of seven crystallographically characterized Mn monomers and dimers is used as a test set. The largest deviations between the FEFF calculated EXAFS spectra and the experimental EXAFS spectra arise from the amplitudes. The amplitude errors result from a combination of errors in calculated S0(2) and Debye-Waller values as well as uncertainties in background subtraction. Additional errors may be attributed to structural parameters, particularly in cases where reliable high-resolution crystal structures are not available. Based on these investigations, the strengths and weaknesses of using first-principle EXAFS calculations as a predictive tool are discussed. We demonstrate that a range of DFT optimized structures of the OEC may all be considered consistent with experimental EXAFS data and that caution must be exercised when using EXAFS data to obtain topological arrangements of complex clusters.

  8. The VACS Index Accurately Predicts Mortality and Treatment Response among Multi-Drug Resistant HIV Infected Patients Participating in the Options in Management with Antiretrovirals (OPTIMA) Study

    PubMed Central

    Brown, Sheldon T.; Tate, Janet P.; Kyriakides, Tassos C.; Kirkwood, Katherine A.; Holodniy, Mark; Goulet, Joseph L.; Angus, Brian J.; Cameron, D. William; Justice, Amy C.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives The VACS Index is highly predictive of all-cause mortality among HIV infected individuals within the first few years of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). However, its accuracy among highly treatment experienced individuals and its responsiveness to treatment interventions have yet to be evaluated. We compared the accuracy and responsiveness of the VACS Index with a Restricted Index of age and traditional HIV biomarkers among patients enrolled in the OPTIMA study. Methods Using data from 324/339 (96%) patients in OPTIMA, we evaluated associations between indices and mortality using Kaplan-Meier estimates, proportional hazards models, Harrel’s C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). We also determined the association between study interventions and risk scores over time, and change in score and mortality. Results Both the Restricted Index (c = 0.70) and VACS Index (c = 0.74) predicted mortality from baseline, but discrimination was improved with the VACS Index (NRI = 23%). Change in score from baseline to 48 weeks was more strongly associated with survival for the VACS Index than the Restricted Index with respective hazard ratios of 0.26 (95% CI 0.14–0.49) and 0.39(95% CI 0.22–0.70) among the 25% most improved scores, and 2.08 (95% CI 1.27–3.38) and 1.51 (95%CI 0.90–2.53) for the 25% least improved scores. Conclusions The VACS Index predicts all-cause mortality more accurately among multi-drug resistant, treatment experienced individuals and is more responsive to changes in risk associated with treatment intervention than an index restricted to age and HIV biomarkers. The VACS Index holds promise as an intermediate outcome for intervention research. PMID:24667813

  9. Alzheimer's disease pattern of brain atrophy predicts cognitive decline in Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Weintraub, Daniel; Dietz, Nicole; Duda, John E; Wolk, David A; Doshi, Jimit; Xie, Sharon X; Davatzikos, Christos; Clark, Christopher M; Siderowf, Andrew

    2012-01-01

    Research suggests overlap in brain regions undergoing neurodegeneration in Parkinson's and Alzheimer's disease. To assess the clinical significance of this, we applied a validated Alzheimer's disease-spatial pattern of brain atrophy to patients with Parkinson's disease with a range of cognitive abilities to determine its association with cognitive performance and decline. At baseline, 84 subjects received structural magnetic resonance imaging brain scans and completed the Dementia Rating Scale-2, and new robust and expanded Dementia Rating Scale-2 norms were applied to cognitively classify participants. Fifty-nine non-demented subjects were assessed annually with the Dementia Rating Scale-2 for two additional years. Magnetic resonance imaging scans were quantified using both a region of interest approach and voxel-based morphometry analysis, and a method for quantifying the presence of an Alzheimer's disease spatial pattern of brain atrophy was applied to each scan. In multivariate models, higher Alzheimer's disease pattern of atrophy score was associated with worse global cognitive performance (β = -0.31, P = 0.007), including in non-demented patients (β = -0.28, P = 0.05). In linear mixed model analyses, higher baseline Alzheimer's disease pattern of atrophy score predicted long-term global cognitive decline in non-demented patients [F(1, 110) = 9.72, P = 0.002], remarkably even in those with normal cognition at baseline [F(1, 80) = 4.71, P = 0.03]. In contrast, in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses there was no association between region of interest brain volumes and cognitive performance in patients with Parkinson's disease with normal cognition. These findings support involvement of the hippocampus and parietal-temporal cortex with cognitive impairment and long-term decline in Parkinson's disease. In addition, an Alzheimer's disease pattern of brain atrophy may be a preclinical biomarker of cognitive decline in

  10. Risk reversals in predictive testing for Huntington disease.

    PubMed Central

    Almqvist, E; Adam, S; Bloch, M; Fuller, A; Welch, P; Eisenberg, D; Whelan, D; Macgregor, D; Meschino, W; Hayden, M R

    1997-01-01

    The first predictive testing for Huntington disease (HD) was based on analysis of linked polymorphic DNA markers to estimate the likelihood of inheriting the mutation for HD. Limits to accuracy included recombination between the DNA markers and the mutation, pedigree structure, and whether DNA samples were available from family members. With direct tests for the HD mutation, we have assessed the accuracy of results obtained by linkage approaches when requested to do so by the test individuals. For six such individuals, there was significant disparity between the tests. Three went from a decreased risk to an increased risk, while in another three the risk was decreased. Knowledge of the potential reasons for these changes in results and impact of these risk reversals on both patients and the counseling team can assist in the development of strategies for the prevention and, where necessary, management of a risk reversal in any predictive testing program. Images Figure 1 Figure 2 Figure 3 Figure 4 Figure 5 PMID:9382108

  11. Automated diagnosis and prediction of Alzheimer disease using magnetic resonance image

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cai, Zifan; Di, Qian; Chen, Kewei; Reiman, Eric M.; Wang, Liang; Li, Kuncheng; Tang, Jie; Yao, Li; Zhao, Xiaojie

    2007-03-01

    Magnetic resonance image (MRI) has provided an imageological support into the clinical diagnosis and prediction of Alzheimer disease (AD) progress. Currently, the clinical use of MRI data on AD diagnosis is qualitative via visual inspection and less accurate. To provide assistance to physicians in improving the accuracy and sensitivity of the AD diagnose and the clinical outcome of the disease, we developed a computer-assisted analysis package that analyzed the MRI data of an individual patient in comparison with a group of normal controls. The package is based on the principle of the well established and widely used voxel-based morphometry (VBM) and SPM software. All analysis procedure is automated and streamlined. With only one mouse-click, the whole procedure was finished within 15 minutes. With the interactive display and anatomical automatic labeling toolbox, the final result and report supply the brain regional structure difference, the quantitative assessment and visual inspections by physicians and scientific researcher. The brain regions which affected by AD are consonant in the main with the clinical diagnosis, which are reviewed by physicians. In result, the computer package provides physician with an automatic and assistant tool for prediction using MRI. This package could be valuable tool assisting physicians in making their clinical diagnosis decisions.

  12. Improved apparatus for predictive diagnosis of rotator cuff disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Pillai, Anup; Hall, Brittany N.; Thigpen, Charles A.; Kwartowitz, David M.

    2014-03-01

    Rotator cuff disease impacts over 50% of the population over 60, with reports of incidence being as high as 90% within this population, causing pain and possible loss of function. The rotator cuff is composed of muscles and tendons that work in tandem to support the shoulder. Heavy use of these muscles can lead to rotator cuff tear, with the most common causes is age-related degeneration or sport injuries, both being a function of overuse. Tears ranges in severity from partial thickness tear to total rupture. Diagnostic techniques are based on physical assessment, detailed patient history, and medical imaging; primarily X-ray, MRI and ultrasonography are the chosen modalities for assessment. The final treatment technique and imaging modality; however, is chosen by the clinician is at their discretion. Ultrasound has been shown to have good accuracy for identification and measurement of full-thickness and partial-thickness rotator cuff tears. In this study, we report on the progress and improvement of our method of transduction and analysis of in situ measurement of rotator cuff biomechanics. We have improved the ability of the clinician to apply a uniform force to the underlying musculotendentious tissues while simultaneously obtaining the ultrasound image. This measurement protocol combined with region of interest (ROI) based image processing will help in developing a predictive diagnostic model for treatment of rotator cuff disease and help the clinicians choose the best treatment technique.

  13. Predicting dementia development in Parkinson's disease using Bayesian network classifiers.

    PubMed

    Morales, Dinora A; Vives-Gilabert, Yolanda; Gómez-Ansón, Beatriz; Bengoetxea, Endika; Larrañaga, Pedro; Bielza, Concha; Pagonabarraga, Javier; Kulisevsky, Jaime; Corcuera-Solano, Idoia; Delfino, Manuel

    2013-08-30

    Parkinson's disease (PD) has broadly been associated with mild cognitive impairment (PDMCI) and dementia (PDD). Researchers have studied surrogate, neuroanatomic biomarkers provided by magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) that may help in the early diagnosis of this condition. In this article, four classification models (naïve Bayes, multivariate filter-based naïve Bayes, filter selective naïve Bayes and support vector machines, SVM) have been applied to evaluate their capacity to discriminate between cognitively intact patients with Parkinson's disease (PDCI), PDMCI and PDD. For this purpose, the MRI studies of 45 subjects (16 PDCI, 15 PDMCI and 14 PDD) were acquired and post-processed with Freesurfer, obtaining 112 variables (volumes of subcortical structures and thickness of cortical parcels) per subject. A multivariate filter-based naïve Bayes model was found to be the best classifier, having the highest cross-validated sensitivity, specificity and accuracy. Additionally, the most relevant variables related to dementia in PD, as predicted by our classifiers, were cerebral white matter, and volumes of the lateral ventricles and hippocampi.

  14. New machine-learning algorithms for prediction of Parkinson's disease

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mandal, Indrajit; Sairam, N.

    2014-03-01

    This article presents an enhanced prediction accuracy of diagnosis of Parkinson's disease (PD) to prevent the delay and misdiagnosis of patients using the proposed robust inference system. New machine-learning methods are proposed and performance comparisons are based on specificity, sensitivity, accuracy and other measurable parameters. The robust methods of treating Parkinson's disease (PD) includes sparse multinomial logistic regression, rotation forest ensemble with support vector machines and principal components analysis, artificial neural networks, boosting methods. A new ensemble method comprising of the Bayesian network optimised by Tabu search algorithm as classifier and Haar wavelets as projection filter is used for relevant feature selection and ranking. The highest accuracy obtained by linear logistic regression and sparse multinomial logistic regression is 100% and sensitivity, specificity of 0.983 and 0.996, respectively. All the experiments are conducted over 95% and 99% confidence levels and establish the results with corrected t-tests. This work shows a high degree of advancement in software reliability and quality of the computer-aided diagnosis system and experimentally shows best results with supportive statistical inference.

  15. Structure-Based Prediction of Unstable Regions in Proteins: Applications to Protein Misfolding Diseases

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Guest, Will; Cashman, Neil; Plotkin, Steven

    2009-03-01

    Protein misfolding is a necessary step in the pathogenesis of many diseases, including Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) and familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (fALS). Identifying unstable structural elements in their causative proteins elucidates the early events of misfolding and presents targets for inhibition of the disease process. An algorithm was developed to calculate the Gibbs free energy of unfolding for all sequence-contiguous regions of a protein using three methods to parameterize energy changes: a modified G=o model, changes in solvent-accessible surface area, and solution of the Poisson-Boltzmann equation. The entropic effects of disulfide bonds and post-translational modifications are treated analytically. It incorporates a novel method for finding local dielectric constants inside a protein to accurately handle charge effects. We have predicted the unstable parts of prion protein and superoxide dismutase 1, the proteins involved in CJD and fALS respectively, and have used these regions as epitopes to prepare antibodies that are specific to the misfolded conformation and show promise as therapeutic agents.

  16. BrainAGE in Mild Cognitive Impaired Patients: Predicting the Conversion to Alzheimer's Disease.

    PubMed

    Gaser, Christian; Franke, Katja; Klöppel, Stefan; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Sauer, Heinrich

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, shares many aspects of abnormal brain aging. We present a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based biomarker that predicts the individual progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD on the basis of pathological brain aging patterns. By employing kernel regression methods, the expression of normal brain-aging patterns forms the basis to estimate the brain age of a given new subject. If the estimated age is higher than the chronological age, a positive brain age gap estimation (BrainAGE) score indicates accelerated atrophy and is considered a risk factor for conversion to AD. Here, the BrainAGE framework was applied to predict the individual brain ages of 195 subjects with MCI at baseline, of which a total of 133 developed AD during 36 months of follow-up (corresponding to a pre-test probability of 68%). The ability of the BrainAGE framework to correctly identify MCI-converters was compared with the performance of commonly used cognitive scales, hippocampus volume, and state-of-the-art biomarkers derived from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). With accuracy rates of up to 81%, BrainAGE outperformed all cognitive scales and CSF biomarkers in predicting conversion of MCI to AD within 3 years of follow-up. Each additional year in the BrainAGE score was associated with a 10% greater risk of developing AD (hazard rate: 1.10 [CI: 1.07-1.13]). Furthermore, the post-test probability was increased to 90% when using baseline BrainAGE scores to predict conversion to AD. The presented framework allows an accurate prediction even with multicenter data. Its fast and fully automated nature facilitates the integration into the clinical workflow. It can be exploited as a tool for screening as well as for monitoring treatment options.

  17. BrainAGE in Mild Cognitive Impaired Patients: Predicting the Conversion to Alzheimer’s Disease

    PubMed Central

    Klöppel, Stefan; Koutsouleris, Nikolaos; Sauer, Heinrich

    2013-01-01

    Alzheimer’s disease (AD), the most common form of dementia, shares many aspects of abnormal brain aging. We present a novel magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-based biomarker that predicts the individual progression of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD on the basis of pathological brain aging patterns. By employing kernel regression methods, the expression of normal brain-aging patterns forms the basis to estimate the brain age of a given new subject. If the estimated age is higher than the chronological age, a positive brain age gap estimation (BrainAGE) score indicates accelerated atrophy and is considered a risk factor for conversion to AD. Here, the BrainAGE framework was applied to predict the individual brain ages of 195 subjects with MCI at baseline, of which a total of 133 developed AD during 36 months of follow-up (corresponding to a pre-test probability of 68%). The ability of the BrainAGE framework to correctly identify MCI-converters was compared with the performance of commonly used cognitive scales, hippocampus volume, and state-of-the-art biomarkers derived from cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). With accuracy rates of up to 81%, BrainAGE outperformed all cognitive scales and CSF biomarkers in predicting conversion of MCI to AD within 3 years of follow-up. Each additional year in the BrainAGE score was associated with a 10% greater risk of developing AD (hazard rate: 1.10 [CI: 1.07–1.13]). Furthermore, the post-test probability was increased to 90% when using baseline BrainAGE scores to predict conversion to AD. The presented framework allows an accurate prediction even with multicenter data. Its fast and fully automated nature facilitates the integration into the clinical workflow. It can be exploited as a tool for screening as well as for monitoring treatment options. PMID:23826273

  18. Predicting coronary heart disease: from Framingham Risk Score to ultrasound bioimaging.

    PubMed

    Sillesen, Henrik; Fuster, Valentin

    2012-01-01

    Atherosclerosis is the leading cause of death and disabling disease. Whereas risk factors are well known and constitute therapeutic targets, they are not useful for prediction of risk of future myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. Therefore, methods to identify atherosclerosis itself have been tested and found useful (ie, coronary calcium detection by computed tomography scanning, reduction in ankle-brachial index, and ultrasound scanning of the carotid arteries). This review will focus on the latter technique. Detection of thickened carotid intima-media by ultrasound has been used in many large epidemiological studies, but although it has been found to be associated with increased risk of cardiovascular death, its clinical utility is limited. Detection of carotid plaque has, on the other hand, been found to be associated with a substantial risk of future events. Similarly, detection of plaque in the femoral arteries is associated with increased risk, and plaque in the femoral as well as carotid arteries predicts even higher risk. Furthermore, quantification of plaque size (plaque area), such as quantification of amount of coronary calcium on computed tomography scanning, improves predictability-the larger the plaques, the higher the risk. So far, studies using ultrasound all have been performed with 2-dimensional ultrasound imaging. Recently, 3-dimensional ultrasound imaging has been introduced, which allows for more accurate quantification of atherosclerosis. Small studies pioneering its use have indicated the utility of measuring changes in vessel-wall volume and plaque volume with respect to treatment effect. The High-Risk Plaque Initiative BioImage Study is currently investigating the predictive value of total carotid plaque volume with respect to prediction of future cardiovascular events.

  19. Toward Relatively General and Accurate Quantum Chemical Predictions of Solid-State (17)O NMR Chemical Shifts in Various Biologically Relevant Oxygen-Containing Compounds.

    PubMed

    Rorick, Amber; Michael, Matthew A; Yang, Liu; Zhang, Yong

    2015-09-03

    Oxygen is an important element in most biologically significant molecules, and experimental solid-state (17)O NMR studies have provided numerous useful structural probes to study these systems. However, computational predictions of solid-state (17)O NMR chemical shift tensor properties are still challenging in many cases, and in particular, each of the prior computational works is basically limited to one type of oxygen-containing system. This work provides the first systematic study of the effects of geometry refinement, method, and basis sets for metal and nonmetal elements in both geometry optimization and NMR property calculations of some biologically relevant oxygen-containing compounds with a good variety of XO bonding groups (X = H, C, N, P, and metal). The experimental range studied is of 1455 ppm, a major part of the reported (17)O NMR chemical shifts in organic and organometallic compounds. A number of computational factors toward relatively general and accurate predictions of (17)O NMR chemical shifts were studied to provide helpful and detailed suggestions for future work. For the studied kinds of oxygen-containing compounds, the best computational approach results in a theory-versus-experiment correlation coefficient (R(2)) value of 0.9880 and a mean absolute deviation of 13 ppm (1.9% of the experimental range) for isotropic NMR shifts and an R(2) value of 0.9926 for all shift-tensor properties. These results shall facilitate future computational studies of (17)O NMR chemical shifts in many biologically relevant systems, and the high accuracy may also help the refinement and determination of active-site structures of some oxygen-containing substrate-bound proteins.

  20. Integrating trans-abdominal ultrasonography with fecal steroid metabolite monitoring to accurately diagnose pregnancy and predict the timing of parturition in the red panda (Ailurus fulgens styani).

    PubMed

    Curry, Erin; Browning, Lissa J; Reinhart, Paul; Roth, Terri L

    2017-02-23

    Red pandas (Ailurus fulgens styani) exhibit a variable gestation length and may experience a pseudopregnancy indistinguishable from true pregnancy; therefore, it is not possible to deduce an individual's true pregnancy status and parturition date based on breeding dates or fecal progesterone excretion patterns alone. The goal of this study was to evaluate the use of transabdominal ultrasonography for pregnancy diagnosis in red pandas. Two to three females were monitored over 4 consecutive years, generating a total of seven profiles (four pregnancies, two pseudopregnancies, and one lost pregnancy). Fecal samples were collected and assayed for progesterone (P4) and estrogen conjugate (EC) to characterize patterns associated with breeding activity and parturition events. Animals were trained for voluntary transabdominal ultrasound and examinations were performed weekly. Breeding behaviors and fecal EC data suggest that the estrus cycle of this species is 11-12 days in length. Fecal steroid metabolite analyses also revealed that neither P4 nor EC concentrations were suitable indicators of pregnancy in this species; however, a secondary increase in P4 occurred 69-71 days prior to parturition in all pregnant females, presumably coinciding with embryo implantation. Using ultrasonography, embryos were detected as early as 62 days post-breeding/50 days pre-partum and serial measurements of uterine lumen diameter were documented throughout four pregnancies. Advances in reproductive diagnostics, such as the implementation of ultrasonography, may facilitate improved husbandry of pregnant females and allow for the accurate prediction of parturition.

  1. Predicting targets of compounds against neurological diseases using cheminformatic methodology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Nikolic, Katarina; Mavridis, Lazaros; Bautista-Aguilera, Oscar M.; Marco-Contelles, José; Stark, Holger; do Carmo Carreiras, Maria; Rossi, Ilaria; Massarelli, Paola; Agbaba, Danica; Ramsay, Rona R.; Mitchell, John B. O.

    2015-02-01

    Recently developed multi-targeted ligands are novel drug candidates able to interact with monoamine oxidase A and B; acetylcholinesterase and butyrylcholinesterase; or with histamine N-methyltransferase and histamine H3-receptor (H3R). These proteins are drug targets in the treatment of depression, Alzheimer's disease, obsessive disorders, and Parkinson's disease. A probabilistic method, the Parzen-Rosenblatt window approach, was used to build a "predictor" model using data collected from the ChEMBL database. The model can be used to predict both the primary pharmaceutical target and off-targets of a compound based on its structure. Molecular structures were represented based on the circular fingerprint methodology. The same approach was used to build a "predictor" model from the DrugBank dataset to determine the main pharmacological groups of the compound. The study of off-target interactions is now recognised as crucial to the understanding of both drug action and toxicology. Primary pharmaceutical targets and off-targets for the novel multi-target ligands were examined by use of the developed cheminformatic method. Several multi-target ligands were selected for further study, as compounds with possible additional beneficial pharmacological activities. The cheminformatic targets identifications were in agreement with four 3D-QSAR (H3R/D1R/D2R/5-HT2aR) models and by in vitro assays for serotonin 5-HT1a and 5-HT2a receptor binding of the most promising ligand ( 71/MBA-VEG8).

  2. Accurate discrimination of Alzheimer's disease from other dementia and/or normal subjects using SPECT specific volume analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Iyatomi, Hitoshi; Hashimoto, Jun; Yoshii, Fumuhito; Kazama, Toshiki; Kawada, Shuichi; Imai, Yutaka

    2014-03-01

    Discrimination between Alzheimer's disease and other dementia is clinically significant, however it is often difficult. In this study, we developed classification models among Alzheimer's disease (AD), other dementia (OD) and/or normal subjects (NC) using patient factors and indices obtained by brain perfusion SPECT. SPECT is commonly used to assess cerebral blood flow (CBF) and allows the evaluation of the severity of hypoperfusion by introducing statistical parametric mapping (SPM). We investigated a total of 150 cases (50 cases each for AD, OD, and NC) from Tokai University Hospital, Japan. In each case, we obtained a total of 127 candidate parameters from: (A) 2 patient factors (age and sex), (B) 12 CBF parameters and 113 SPM parameters including (C) 3 from specific volume analysis (SVA), and (D) 110 from voxel-based analysis stereotactic extraction estimation (vbSEE). We built linear classifiers with a statistical stepwise feature selection and evaluated the performance with the leave-one-out cross validation strategy. Our classifiers achieved very high classification performances with reasonable number of selected parameters. In the most significant discrimination in clinical, namely those of AD from OD, our classifier achieved both sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP) of 96%. In a similar way, our classifiers achieved a SE of 90% and a SP of 98% in AD from NC, as well as a SE of 88% and a SP of 86% in AD from OD and NC cases. Introducing SPM indices such as SVA and vbSEE, classification performances improved around 7-15%. We confirmed that these SPM factors are quite important for diagnosing Alzheimer's disease.

  3. Parkinson's disease prediction using diffusion-based atlas approach

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Teodorescu, Roxana O.; Racoceanu, Daniel; Smit, Nicolas; Cretu, Vladimir I.; Tan, Eng K.; Chan, Ling L.

    2010-03-01

    We study Parkinson's disease (PD) using an automatic specialized diffusion-based atlas. A total of 47 subjects, among who 22 patients diagnosed clinically with PD and 25 control cases, underwent DTI imaging. The EPIs have lower resolution but provide essential anisotropy information for the fiber tracking process. The two volumes of interest (VOI) represented by the Substantia Nigra and the Putamen are detected on the EPI and FA respectively. We use the VOIs for the geometry-based registration. We fuse the anatomical detail detected on FA image for the putamen volume with the EPI. After 3D fibers growing on the two volumes, we compute the fiber density (FD) and the fiber volume (FV). Furthermore, we compare patients based on the extracted fibers and evaluate them according to Hohen&Yahr (H&Y) scale. This paper introduces the method used for automatic volume detection and evaluates the fiber growing method on these volumes. Our approach is important from the clinical standpoint, providing a new tool for the neurologists to evaluate and predict PD evolution. From the technical point of view, the fusion approach deals with the tensor based information (EPI) and the extraction of the anatomical detail (FA and EPI).

  4. Consumer preferences for the predictive genetic test for Alzheimer disease.

    PubMed

    Huang, Ming-Yi; Huston, Sally A; Perri, Matthew

    2014-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess consumer preferences for predictive genetic testing for Alzheimer disease in the United States. A rating conjoint analysis was conducted using an anonymous online survey distributed by Qualtrics to a general population panel in April 2011 in the United States. The study design included three attributes: Accuracy (40%, 80%, and 100%), Treatment Availability (Cure is available/Drug for symptom relief but no cure), and Anonymity (Anonymous/Not anonymous). A total of 12 scenarios were used to elicit people's preference, assessed by an 11-point scale. The respondents also indicated their highest willingness-to-pay (WTP) for each scenario through open-ended questions. A total of 295 responses were collected over 4 days. The most important attribute for the aggregate model was Accuracy, contributing 64.73% to the preference rating. Treatment Availability and Anonymity contributed 20.72% and 14.59%, respectively, to the preference rating. The median WTP for the highest-rating scenario (Accuracy 100%, a cure is available, test result is anonymous) was $100 (mean = $276). The median WTP for the lowest-rating scenario (40% accuracy, no cure but drugs for symptom relief, not anonymous) was zero (mean = $34). The results of this study highlight attributes people find important when making the hypothetical decision to obtain an AD genetic test. These results should be of interests to policy makers, genetic test developers and health care providers.

  5. An Integrated Children Disease Prediction Tool within a Special Social Network.

    PubMed

    Apostolova Trpkovska, Marika; Yildirim Yayilgan, Sule; Besimi, Adrian

    2016-01-01

    This paper proposes a social network with an integrated children disease prediction system developed by the use of the specially designed Children General Disease Ontology (CGDO). This ontology consists of children diseases and their relationship with symptoms and Semantic Web Rule Language (SWRL rules) that are specially designed for predicting diseases. The prediction process starts by filling data about the appeared signs and symptoms by the user which are after that mapped with the CGDO ontology. Once the data are mapped, the prediction results are presented. The phase of prediction executes the rules which extract the predicted disease details based on the SWRL rule specified. The motivation behind the development of this system is to spread knowledge about the children diseases and their symptoms in a very simple way using the specialized social networking website www.emama.mk.

  6. TNFα and IL10 SNPs act together to predict disease behaviour in Crohn's disease

    PubMed Central

    Fowler, E; Eri, R; Hume, G; Johnstone, S; Pandeya, N; Lincoln, D; Templeton, D; Radford-Smith, G

    2005-01-01

    Background: The cytokines tumour necrosis factor (TNF)α and interleukin (IL)10 have been implicated in the pathogenesis of Crohn's disease (CD), with increased concentrations reported in patients with active disease. However, limited data exist on their effects on disease phenotype in the same population. Certain single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within the promoter region of the IL10 (-1082G/A, -592C/A) and TNFα (-308G/A, -857C/T) genes have been associated with altered levels of circulating IL10 and TNFα. Methods: We conducted an Australian based case–control study (304 CD patients; 231 healthy controls) of these four SNPs. Further investigation of two SNPs was conducted using a logistic regression analysis. Results: We identified a possible association of both IL10 SNPs and TNFα-857 with CD. Further investigation of a relationship with disease severity showed a significant association of higher producing IL10-1082G and TNFα-857C alleles with stricturing behaviour, which was strongest when these alleles were combined and persisted after multivariate analysis (p = 0.007; odds ratio (OR) 2.37, 95% CI 1.26 to 4.43). In addition, the TNFα-857CC genotype was independently associated with familial CD (p = 0.03; OR 3.12; 95% CI 1.15 to 8.46). Conclusion: These two SNPs may help to predict disease behaviour in CD patients, which may be clinically useful in shaping treatment of the disease at an earlier stage. PMID:15937090

  7. The PROPKD Score: A New Algorithm to Predict Renal Survival in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease

    PubMed Central

    Cornec-Le Gall, Emilie; Audrézet, Marie-Pierre; Rousseau, Annick; Hourmant, Maryvonne; Renaudineau, Eric; Charasse, Christophe; Morin, Marie-Pascale; Moal, Marie-Christine; Dantal, Jacques; Wehbe, Bassem; Perrichot, Régine; Frouget, Thierry; Vigneau, Cécile; Potier, Jérôme; Jousset, Philippe; Guillodo, Marie-Paule; Siohan, Pascale; Terki, Nazim; Sawadogo, Théophile; Legrand, Didier; Menoyo-Calonge, Victorio; Benarbia, Seddik; Besnier, Dominique; Longuet, Hélène; Férec, Claude

    2016-01-01

    The course of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) varies among individuals, with some reaching ESRD before 40 years of age and others never requiring RRT. In this study, we developed a prognostic model to predict renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD on the basis of genetic and clinical data. We conducted a cross-sectional study of 1341 patients from the Genkyst cohort and evaluated the influence of clinical and genetic factors on renal survival. Multivariate survival analysis identified four variables that were significantly associated with age at ESRD onset, and a scoring system from 0 to 9 was developed as follows: being male: 1 point; hypertension before 35 years of age: 2 points; first urologic event before 35 years of age: 2 points; PKD2 mutation: 0 points; nontruncating PKD1 mutation: 2 points; and truncating PKD1 mutation: 4 points. Three risk categories were subsequently defined as low risk (0–3 points), intermediate risk (4–6 points), and high risk (7–9 points) of progression to ESRD, with corresponding median ages for ESRD onset of 70.6, 56.9, and 49 years, respectively. Whereas a score ≤3 eliminates evolution to ESRD before 60 years of age with a negative predictive value of 81.4%, a score >6 forecasts ESRD onset before 60 years of age with a positive predictive value of 90.9%. This new prognostic score accurately predicts renal outcomes in patients with ADPKD and may enable the personalization of therapeutic management of ADPKD. PMID:26150605

  8. IMPre: An Accurate and Efficient Software for Prediction of T- and B-Cell Receptor Germline Genes and Alleles from Rearranged Repertoire Data

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Wei; Wang, I-Ming; Wang, Changxi; Lin, Liya; Chai, Xianghua; Wu, Jinghua; Bett, Andrew J.; Dhanasekaran, Govindarajan; Casimiro, Danilo R.; Liu, Xiao

    2016-01-01

    Large-scale study of the properties of T-cell receptor (TCR) and B-cell receptor (BCR) repertoires through next-generation sequencing is providing excellent insights into the understanding of adaptive immune responses. Variable(Diversity)Joining [V(D)J] germline genes and alleles must be characterized in detail to facilitate repertoire analyses. However, most species do not have well-characterized TCR/BCR germline genes because of their high homology. Also, more germline alleles are required for humans and other species, which limits the capacity for studying immune repertoires. Herein, we developed “Immune Germline Prediction” (IMPre), a tool for predicting germline V/J genes and alleles using deep-sequencing data derived from TCR/BCR repertoires. We developed a new algorithm, “Seed_Clust,” for clustering, produced a multiway tree for assembly and optimized the sequence according to the characteristics of rearrangement. We trained IMPre on human samples of T-cell receptor beta (TRB) and immunoglobulin heavy chain and then tested it on additional human samples. Accuracy of 97.7, 100, 92.9, and 100% was obtained for TRBV, TRBJ, IGHV, and IGHJ, respectively. Analyses of subsampling performance for these samples showed IMPre to be robust using different data quantities. Subsequently, IMPre was tested on samples from rhesus monkeys and human long sequences: the highly accurate results demonstrated IMPre to be stable with animal and multiple data types. With rapid accumulation of high-throughput sequence data for TCR and BCR repertoires, IMPre can be applied broadly for obtaining novel genes and a large number of novel alleles. IMPre is available at https://github.com/zhangwei2015/IMPre. PMID:27867380

  9. Cosmological constraints from the CFHTLenS shear measurements using a new, accurate, and flexible way of predicting non-linear mass clustering

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Angulo, Raul E.; Hilbert, Stefan

    2015-03-01

    We explore the cosmological constraints from cosmic shear using a new way of modelling the non-linear matter correlation functions. The new formalism extends the method of Angulo & White, which manipulates outputs of N-body simulations to represent the 3D non-linear mass distribution in different cosmological scenarios. We show that predictions from our approach for shear two-point correlations at 1-300 arcmin separations are accurate at the ˜10 per cent level, even for extreme changes in cosmology. For moderate changes, with target cosmologies similar to that preferred by analyses of recent Planck data, the accuracy is close to ˜5 per cent. We combine this approach with a Monte Carlo Markov chain sampler to explore constraints on a Λ cold dark matter model from the shear correlation functions measured in the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Lensing Survey (CFHTLenS). We obtain constraints on the parameter combination σ8(Ωm/0.27)0.6 = 0.801 ± 0.028. Combined with results from cosmic microwave background data, we obtain marginalized constraints on σ8 = 0.81 ± 0.01 and Ωm = 0.29 ± 0.01. These results are statistically compatible with previous analyses, which supports the validity of our approach. We discuss the advantages of our method and the potential it offers, including a path to model in detail (i) the effects of baryons, (ii) high-order shear correlation functions, and (iii) galaxy-galaxy lensing, among others, in future high-precision cosmological analyses.

  10. Raman spectroscopy detection of platelet for Alzheimer’s disease with predictive probabilities

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Wang, L. J.; Du, X. Q.; Du, Z. W.; Yang, Y. Y.; Chen, P.; Tian, Q.; Shang, X. L.; Liu, Z. C.; Yao, X. Q.; Wang, J. Z.; Wang, X. H.; Cheng, Y.; Peng, J.; Shen, A. G.; Hu, J. M.

    2014-08-01

    Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a common form of dementia. Early and differential diagnosis of AD has always been an arduous task for the medical expert due to the unapparent early symptoms and the currently imperfect imaging examination methods. Therefore, obtaining reliable markers with clinical diagnostic value in easily assembled samples is worthy and significant. Our previous work with laser Raman spectroscopy (LRS), in which we detected platelet samples of different ages of AD transgenic mice and non-transgenic controls, showed great effect in the diagnosis of AD. In addition, a multilayer perception network (MLP) classification method was adopted to discriminate the spectral data. However, there were disturbances, which were induced by noise from the machines and so on, in the data set; thus the MLP method had to be trained with large-scale data. In this paper, we aim to re-establish the classification models of early and advanced AD and the control group with fewer features, and apply some mechanism of noise reduction to improve the accuracy of models. An adaptive classification method based on the Gaussian process (GP) featured, with predictive probabilities, is proposed, which could tell when a data set is related to some kind of disease. Compared with MLP on the same feature set, GP showed much better performance in the experimental results. What is more, since the spectra of platelets are isolated from AD, GP has good expansibility and can be applied in diagnosis of many other similar diseases, such as Parkinson’s disease (PD). Spectral data of 4 month and 12 month AD platelets, as well as control data, were collected. With predictive probabilities, the proposed GP classification method improved the diagnostic sensitivity to nearly 100%. Samples were also collected from PD platelets as classification and comparison to the 12 month AD. The presented approach and our experiments indicate that utilization of GP with predictive probabilities in

  11. Albuminuria and posttransplant chronic kidney disease stage predict transplant outcomes.

    PubMed

    Lam, Ngan N; Tonelli, Marcello; Lentine, Krista L; Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Ye, Feng; Wen, Kevin; Klarenbach, Scott

    2017-03-30

    In 2012, the KDIGO guidelines updated the classification system for chronic kidney disease to include albuminuria. Whether this classification system predicts adverse clinical outcomes among kidney transplant recipients is unclear. To evaluate this, we conducted a retrospective study using linked databases in Alberta, Canada to follow kidney transplant recipients from 2002-2011. We examined the association between an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR of 60 or more, 45-59, 30-44, 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) and albuminuria (normal, mild, heavy) at one year post-transplant and subsequent mortality and graft loss. There were 900 recipients with a functioning graft and at least one outpatient serum creatinine and urine protein measurement at one year post-transplant. The median age was 51.2 years, 38.7% were female, and 52% had an eGFR of 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or more. The risk of all-cause mortality and death-censored graft loss was increased in recipients with reduced eGFR or heavier albuminuria. The adjusted incidence rate per 1000 person-years of all-cause mortality for recipients with an eGFR of 15-29 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and heavy albuminuria vs. an eGFR 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) or more and normal protein excretion was 117 (95% confidence interval 38-371) vs. 15 (9-23) (rate ratio 8). Corresponding rates for death-censored graft loss were 273 (88-1203) vs. 6 (3-9) (rate ratio 49). Reduced eGFR and heavier albuminuria in kidney transplant recipients are associated with an increased risk of mortality and graft loss. Thus, eGFR and albuminuria may be used together to identify, evaluate, and manage transplant recipients who are at higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes.

  12. Bone mineral density predicts fractures in chronic kidney disease.

    PubMed

    West, Sarah L; Lok, Charmaine E; Langsetmo, Lisa; Cheung, Angela M; Szabo, Eva; Pearce, Dawn; Fusaro, Maria; Wald, Ron; Weinstein, Jordan; Jamal, Sophie A

    2015-05-01

    Fractures are common in chronic kidney disease (CKD). The optimal methods by which to assess fracture risk are unknown, in part, due to a lack of prospective studies. We determined if bone mineral density (BMD) by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), and/or high-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) could predict fractures in men and women ≥18 years old with stages 3 to 5 CKD. BMD was measured by DXA (at the total hip, lumbar spine, ultradistal, and 1/3 radius) and by HRpQCT (at the radius), and subjects were followed for 2 years for incident morphometric spine fractures and low-trauma clinical fractures. The mean age of the subjects was 62 years with equal numbers having stages 3, 4, and 5 CKD. Over 2 years there were 51 fractures in 35 subjects. BMD by DXA at baseline was significantly lower at all sites among those with incident fractures versus those without. For example, the mean BMD at the total hip in those with incident fractures was 0.77 g/cm2 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.73 to 0.80) and in those without fracture was 0.95 g/cm2 (95% CI, 0.92 to 0.98). Almost all baseline HRpQCT measures were lower in those with incident fracture versus those without. For example, volumetric BMD in those with incident fractures was 232 mg HA/cm3 (95% CI, 213 to 251) and in those without fracture was 317.6 mg HA/cm3 (95% CI, 306 to 329.1). Bone loss occurred in all subjects, but was significantly greater among those with incident fractures. Our data demonstrate that low BMD (by DXA and HRpQCT) and a greater annualized percent decrease in BMD are risk factors for subsequent fracture in men and women with predialysis CKD.

  13. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators

    PubMed Central

    Valeri, Linda; Patterson-Lomba, Oscar; Gurmu, Yared; Ablorh, Akweley; Bobb, Jennifer; Townes, F. William; Harling, Guy

    2016-01-01

    Background The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered. Methods To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2) in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models. Results The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic. Discussion By combining two common methods—estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models—we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur. PMID:27732614

  14. Predicting relapse following medical therapy for Graves' disease

    SciTech Connect

    McKillop, J.H.; Wilson, R.; Pearson, D.W.; Cuthbert, G.F.; Jenkins, C.; Caine, S.; Thomson, J.A.

    1984-01-01

    In 40 patients with Graves' disease (35 female, 5 male; mean age at presentation = 38 yrs) the authors examined the ability of thyroidal /sup 99m/Tc uptake and serum thyroid stimulating immunoglobins (TSI) to identify patients who would relapse after a course of medical therapy. Serum TSI and 20 minute thyroidal /sup 99m/Tc uptake were estimated every 3 months during a 12 month course of carbimazole and tri iodothyronine. TSI levels were estimated by inhibition of receptor binding and expressed as an index (normal value <25). 17 patients (Group 1) remained biochemically euthyroid for at least 1 year after cessation of therapy. 23 (Group II) developed recurrent thyrotoxicosis. Thyroid hormone level did not differ between Groups I and II at presentation. /sup 99m/Tc uptake did not differ significantly in the two groups at presentation and overlap of values persisted throughout therapy. 3 patients had undetectable TSI levels at presentation and throughout follow-up. In the remaining 37, TSI levels at presentation were significantly higher in Group II and all 7 patients with initial values >80 relapsed. After 12 months therapy a TSI level of >25 was present in 1 Group I patient and 16 Group II patients who had detectable TSI at presentation. /sup 99m/Tc uptake was a poor predictor of relapse of thyrotoxicosis. A very high TSI level at presentation (>80) was associated with relapse. An abnormal TSI on completion of 12 months medical therapy had a sensitivity of 86% and a specificity of 94% for prediction of relapse of thyrotoxicosis in the subsequent year.

  15. Value of Computerized Tomography Enterography in Predicting Crohn’s Disease Activity: Correlation with Crohn’s Disease Activity Index and C-Reactive Protein

    PubMed Central

    Park, Eun Kyung; Han, Na Yeon; Park, Beom Jin; Sung, Deuk Jae; Cho, Sung Beom; Jeen, Yoon Tae; Keum, Bora; Kim, Min Ju

    2016-01-01

    Background The accurate evaluation of Crohn’s disease activity is important for the treatment of the disease and for monitoring the response. Computerized tomography (CT) enterography is a useful imaging modality that reflects enteric inflammation, as well as extramural complications. Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate the correlation between CT enterographic (CTE) findings of active Crohn’s disease and the Crohn’s disease activity index (CDAI) and C-reactive protein (CRP). Patients and Methods Fifty CT enterographies of 39 patients with Crohn’s disease in the small bowel were used in our study. The CDAI was assessed through clinical and laboratory variables. Multiple CT parameters, including mural hyperenhancement, mural thickness, mural stratification, comb sign, and mesenteric fat attenuation, were evaluated with a four-point scale. The presence or absence of enhanced lymph nodes, fibrofatty proliferation, sinus or fistula, abscess, and stricture were also assessed. Two gastrointestinal radiologists independently reviewed all CT images, and inter-observer agreement was examined. Correlations between CT findings, CRP, and CDAI were assessed using Spearman’s rank correlation and logistic regression analysis. To assess the predictive accuracy of the model, a receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis for the sum of CT enterographic scores was used. Results Mural hyperenhancement, mural thickness, comb sign, mesenteric fat density, and fibrofatty proliferation were significantly correlated with CDAI and CRP (P < 0.05). The binary logistic regression model demonstrated that mesenteric fat density, mural stratification, and the presence of enhanced lymph nodes (P < 0.05) had an influence on CDAI severity. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of the CTE index for predicting disease activity was 0.85. Using a cut-off value of 8, the sensitivity and negative predictive values were 95% and 94%, respectively

  16. Ethical and legal dilemmas arising during predictive testing for adult-onset disease: the experience of Huntington disease.

    PubMed Central

    Huggins, M; Bloch, M; Kanani, S; Quarrell, O W; Theilman, J; Hedrick, A; Dickens, B; Lynch, A; Hayden, M

    1990-01-01

    The goal of predictive testing is to modify the risk for currently healthy individuals to develop a genetic disease in the future. Such testing using polymorphic DNA markers has had major application in Huntington disease. The Canadian Collaborative Study of Predictive Testing for Huntington Disease has been guided by major principles of medical ethics, including autonomy, beneficence, confidentiality, and justice. Numerous ethical and legal dilemmas have arisen in this program, challenging these principles and occasionally casting them into conflict. The present report describes these dilemmas and offers our approach to resolving them. These issues will have relevance to predictive-testing programs for other adult-onset disorders. PMID:1971997

  17. POSTERIOR PREDICTIVE MODEL CHECKS FOR DISEASE MAPPING MODELS. (R827257)

    EPA Science Inventory

    Disease incidence or disease mortality rates for small areas are often displayed on maps. Maps of raw rates, disease counts divided by the total population at risk, have been criticized as unreliable due to non-constant variance associated with heterogeneity in base population si...

  18. Analyzing gene expression from whole tissue vs. different cell types reveals the central role of neurons in predicting severity of Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Stempler, Shiri; Ruppin, Eytan

    2012-01-01

    Alterations in gene expression resulting from Alzheimer's disease have received considerable attention in recent years. Although expression has been investigated separately in whole brain tissue, in astrocytes and in neurons, a rigorous comparative study quantifying the relative utility of these sources in predicting the progression of Alzheimer's disease has been lacking. Here we analyze gene expression from neurons, astrocytes and whole tissues across different brain regions, and compare their ability to predict Alzheimer's disease progression by building pertaining classification models based on gene expression sets annotated to different biological processes. Remarkably, we find that predictions based on neuronal gene expression are significantly more accurate than those based on astrocyte or whole tissue expression. The findings explicate the central role of neurons, particularly as compared to glial cells, in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer's disease, and emphasize the importance of measuring gene expression in the most relevant (pathogenically 'proximal') single cell types.

  19. Predictive motor timing performance dissociates between early diseases of the cerebellum and Parkinson's disease.

    PubMed

    Bares, Martin; Lungu, Ovidiu V; Husárová, Ivica; Gescheidt, Tomás

    2010-03-01

    There is evidence that both the basal ganglia and the cerebellum play a role in the neural representation of time in a variety of behaviours, but whether one of them is more important is not yet clear. To address this question in the context of predictive motor timing, we tested patients with various movement disorders implicating these two structures in a motor-timing task. Specifically, we investigated four different groups: (1) patients with early Parkinson's disease (PD); (2) patients with sporadic spinocerebellar ataxia (SCA); (3) patients with familial essential tremor (ET); and (4) matched healthy controls. We used a predictive motor-timing task that involved mediated interception of a moving target, and we assessed the effect of movement type (acceleration, deceleration and constant), speed (slow, medium and fast) and angle (0 degrees , 15 degrees and 30 degrees) on performance (hit, early error and late error). The main results showed that PD group and arm ET subgroup did not significantly differ from the control group. SCA and head ET subjects (severe and mild cerebellar damage, respectively) were significantly worse at interception than the other two groups. Our findings support the idea that the basal ganglia play a less significant role in predictive motor timing than the cerebellum. The fact that SCA and ET subjects seemed to have a fundamental problem with predictive motor timing suggests that the cerebellum plays an essential role in integrating incoming visual information with the motor output in a timely manner, and that ET is a heterogeneous entity that deserves increased attention from clinicians.

  20. Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test scores can be predicted from whole brain MRI in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Moradi, Elaheh; Hallikainen, Ilona; Hänninen, Tuomo; Tohka, Jussi

    2017-01-01

    Rey's Auditory Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT) is a powerful neuropsychological tool for testing episodic memory, which is widely used for the cognitive assessment in dementia and pre-dementia conditions. Several studies have shown that an impairment in RAVLT scores reflect well the underlying pathology caused by Alzheimer's disease (AD), thus making RAVLT an effective early marker to detect AD in persons with memory complaints. We investigated the association between RAVLT scores (RAVLT Immediate and RAVLT Percent Forgetting) and the structural brain atrophy caused by AD. The aim was to comprehensively study to what extent the RAVLT scores are predictable based on structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data using machine learning approaches as well as to find the most important brain regions for the estimation of RAVLT scores. For this, we built a predictive model to estimate RAVLT scores from gray matter density via elastic net penalized linear regression model. The proposed approach provided highly significant cross-validated correlation between the estimated and observed RAVLT Immediate (R = 0.50) and RAVLT Percent Forgetting (R = 0.43) in a dataset consisting of 806 AD, mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or healthy subjects. In addition, the selected machine learning method provided more accurate estimates of RAVLT scores than the relevance vector regression used earlier for the estimation of RAVLT based on MRI data. The top predictors were medial temporal lobe structures and amygdala for the estimation of RAVLT Immediate and angular gyrus, hippocampus and amygdala for the estimation of RAVLT Percent Forgetting. Further, the conversion of MCI subjects to AD in 3-years could be predicted based on either observed or estimated RAVLT scores with an accuracy comparable to MRI-based biomarkers.

  1. Predicting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease hospitalizations based on concurrent influenza activity.

    PubMed

    Gerke, Alicia K; Tang, Fan; Yang, Ming; Foster, Eric D; Cavanaugh, Joseph E; Polgreen, Philip M

    2013-10-01

    Although influenza has been associated with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) exacerbations, it is not clear the extent to which this association affects healthcare use in the United States. The first goal of this project was to determine to what extent the incidence of COPD hospitalizations is associated with seasonal influenza. Second, as a natural experiment, we used influenza activity to help predict COPD admissions during the 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic. To do this, we identified all hospitalizations between 1998 and 2010 in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project (HCUP) during which a primary diagnosis of COPD was recorded. Separately, we identified all hospitalizations during which a diagnosis of influenza was recorded. We formulated time series regression models to investigate the association of monthly COPD admissions with influenza incidence. Finally, we applied these models, fit using 1998-2008 data, to forecast monthly COPD admissions during the 2009 pandemic. Based on time series regression models, a strong, significant association exists between concurrent influenza activity and incidence of COPD hospitalizations (p-value < 0.0001). The association is especially strong among older patients requiring mechanical ventilation. Use of influenza data to predict COPD admissions during the 2009 H1N1 pandemic reduced the mean-squared prediction error by 29.9%. We conclude that influenza activity is significantly associated with COPD hospitalizations in the United States and influenza activity can be exploited to more accurately forecast COPD admissions. Our results suggest that improvements in influenza surveillance, prevention, and treatment may decrease hospitalizations of patients diagnosed with COPD.

  2. Use of dynamic microsimulation to predict disease progression in patients with pneumonia-related sepsis

    PubMed Central

    Saka, Görkem; Kreke, Jennifer E; Schaefer, Andrew J; Chang, Chung-Chou H; Roberts, Mark S; Angus, Derek C

    2007-01-01

    Introduction Sepsis is the leading cause of death in critically ill patients and often affects individuals with community-acquired pneumonia. To overcome the limitations of earlier mathematical models used to describe sepsis and predict outcomes, we designed an empirically based Monte Carlo model that simulates the progression of sepsis in hospitalized patients over a 30-day period. Methods The model simulates changing health over time, as represented by the Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, as a function of a patient's previous health state and length of hospital stay. We used data from patients enrolled in the GenIMS (Genetic and Inflammatory Markers of Sepsis) study to calibrate the model, and tested the model's ability to predict deaths, discharges, and daily SOFA scores over time using different algorithms to estimate the natural history of sepsis. We evaluated the stability of the methods using bootstrap sampling techniques. Results Of the 1,888 patients originally enrolled, most were elderly (mean age 67.77 years) and white (80.72%). About half (47.98%) were female. Most were relatively ill, with a mean Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation III score of 56 and Pneumonia Severity Index score of 73.5. The model's estimates of the daily pattern of deaths, discharges, and SOFA scores over time were not statistically different from the actual pattern when information about how long patients had been ill was included in the model (P = 0.91 to 0.98 for discharges; P = 0.26 to 0.68 for deaths). However, model estimates of these patterns were different from the actual pattern when the model did not include data on the duration of illness (P < 0.001 for discharges; P = 0.001 to 0.040 for deaths). Model results were stable to bootstrap validation. Conclusion An empiric simulation model of sepsis can predict complex longitudinal patterns in the progression of sepsis, most accurately by models that contain data representing both organ

  3. Prognosis of locally advanced rectal cancer can be predicted more accurately using pre- and post-chemoradiotherapy neutrophil-lymphocyte ratios in patients who received preoperative chemoradiotherapy

    PubMed Central

    Sung, SooYoon; Park, Eun Young; Kay, Chul Seung

    2017-01-01

    Purpose The neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been suggested as an inflammation-related factor, but also as an indicator of systemic anti-tumor immunity. We aimed to evaluate the prognostic value of the NLR and to propose a proper cut-off value in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who received preoperative chemoradiation (CRT) followed by curative total mesorectal excision (TME). Methods A total of 110 rectal cancer patients with clinical T3-4 or node-positive disease were retrospectively analyzed. The NLR value before preoperative CRT (pre-CRT NLR) and the NLR value between preoperative CRT and surgery (post-CRT NLR) were obtained. Using a maximally selected log-rank test, cut-off values were determined as 1.75 for the pre-CRT NLR and 5.14 for the post-CRT NLR. Results Patients were grouped as follows: group A, pre-CRT NLR ≤ 1.75 and post-CRT NLR ≤ 5.14 (n = 29); group B, pre-CRT NLR > 1.75 and post-CRT NLR ≤ 5.14, or pre-CRT NLR ≤ 1.75 and post-CRT NLR > 5.14 (n = 61); group C, pre-CRT NLR > 1.75 and post-CRT NLR > 5.14 (n = 20). The median follow-up time was 31.1 months. The 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates showed significant differences between the NLR groups (3-year DFS rate: 92.7% vs. 73.0% vs. 47.3%, for group A, B, and C, respectively, p = 0.018; 3-year OS rate: 96.0% vs. 85.5% vs. 59.8%, p = 0.034). Multivariate analysis revealed that the NLR was an independent prognostic factor for DFS (p = 0.028). Conclusion Both the pre-CRT NLR and the post-CRT NLR have a predictive value for the prognosis of patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with preoperative CRT followed by curative TME and adjuvant chemotherapy. A persistently elevated post-CRT NLR may be an indicator of an increased risk of distant metastasis. PMID:28291841

  4. Large-scale prediction of microRNA-disease associations by combinatorial prioritization algorithm

    PubMed Central

    Yu, Hua; Chen, Xiaojun; Lu, Lu

    2017-01-01

    Identification of the associations between microRNA molecules and human diseases from large-scale heterogeneous biological data is an important step for understanding the pathogenesis of diseases in microRNA level. However, experimental verification of microRNA-disease associations is expensive and time-consuming. To overcome the drawbacks of conventional experimental methods, we presented a combinatorial prioritization algorithm to predict the microRNA-disease associations. Importantly, our method can be used to predict microRNAs (diseases) associated with the diseases (microRNAs) without the known associated microRNAs (diseases). The predictive performance of our proposed approach was evaluated and verified by the internal cross-validations and external independent validations based on standard association datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed method achieves the impressive performance for predicting the microRNA-disease association with the Area Under receiver operation characteristic Curve (AUC), 86.93%, which is indeed outperform the previous prediction methods. Particularly, we observed that the ensemble-based method by integrating the predictions of multiple algorithms can give more reliable and robust prediction than the single algorithm, with the AUC score improved to 92.26%. We applied our combinatorial prioritization algorithm to lung neoplasms and breast neoplasms, and revealed their top 30 microRNA candidates, which are in consistent with the published literatures and databases. PMID:28317855

  5. Large-scale prediction of microRNA-disease associations by combinatorial prioritization algorithm

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Yu, Hua; Chen, Xiaojun; Lu, Lu

    2017-03-01

    Identification of the associations between microRNA molecules and human diseases from large-scale heterogeneous biological data is an important step for understanding the pathogenesis of diseases in microRNA level. However, experimental verification of microRNA-disease associations is expensive and time-consuming. To overcome the drawbacks of conventional experimental methods, we presented a combinatorial prioritization algorithm to predict the microRNA-disease associations. Importantly, our method can be used to predict microRNAs (diseases) associated with the diseases (microRNAs) without the known associated microRNAs (diseases). The predictive performance of our proposed approach was evaluated and verified by the internal cross-validations and external independent validations based on standard association datasets. The results demonstrate that our proposed method achieves the impressive performance for predicting the microRNA-disease association with the Area Under receiver operation characteristic Curve (AUC), 86.93%, which is indeed outperform the previous prediction methods. Particularly, we observed that the ensemble-based method by integrating the predictions of multiple algorithms can give more reliable and robust prediction than the single algorithm, with the AUC score improved to 92.26%. We applied our combinatorial prioritization algorithm to lung neoplasms and breast neoplasms, and revealed their top 30 microRNA candidates, which are in consistent with the published literatures and databases.

  6. Prediction of fungicidal activities of rice blast disease based on least-squares support vector machines and project pursuit regression.

    PubMed

    Du, Hongying; Wang, Jie; Hu, Zhide; Yao, Xiaojun; Zhang, Xiaoyun

    2008-11-26

    Three machine learning methods, genetic algorithm-multilinear regression (GA-MLR), least-squares support vector machine (LS-SVM), and project pursuit regression (PPR), were used to investigate the relationship between thiazoline derivatives and their fungicidal activities against the rice blast disease. The GA-MLR method was used to select the most appropriate molecular descriptors from a large set of descriptors, which were only calculated from molecular structures, and develop a linear quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model at the same time. On the basis of the selected descriptors, the other two more accurate models (LS-SVM and PPR) were built. Both the linear and nonlinear modes gave good prediction results, but the nonlinear models afforded better prediction ability, which meant that the LS-SVM and PPR methods could simulate the relationship between the structural descriptors and fungicidal activities more accurately. The results show that the nonlinear methods (LS-SVM and PPR) could be used as good modeling tools for the study of rice blast. Moreover, this study provides a new and simple but efficient approach, which should facilitate the design and development of new compounds to resist the rice blast disease.

  7. Calculation of genomic predicted transmitting abilities for bovine respiratory disease complex in Holsteins

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Bovine Respiratory Disease Complex is a disease that is very costly to the dairy industry. Genomic selection may be an effective tool to improve host resistance to the pathogens that cause this disease. Use of genomic predicted transmitting abilities (GPTA) for selection has had a dramatic effect on...

  8. Drug-disease association and drug-repositioning predictions in complex diseases using causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization.

    PubMed

    Yang, Jihong; Li, Zheng; Fan, Xiaohui; Cheng, Yiyu

    2014-09-22

    The high incidence of complex diseases has become a worldwide threat to human health. Multiple targets and pathways are perturbed during the pathological process of complex diseases. Systematic investigation of complex relationship between drugs and diseases is necessary for new association discovery and drug repurposing. For this purpose, three causal networks were constructed herein for cardiovascular diseases, diabetes mellitus, and neoplasms, respectively. A causal inference-probabilistic matrix factorization (CI-PMF) approach was proposed to predict and classify drug-disease associations, and further used for drug-repositioning predictions. First, multilevel systematic relations between drugs and diseases were integrated from heterogeneous databases to construct causal networks connecting drug-target-pathway-gene-disease. Then, the association scores between drugs and diseases were assessed by evaluating a drug's effects on multiple targets and pathways. Furthermore, PMF models were learned based on known interactions, and associations were then classified into three types by trained models. Finally, therapeutic associations were predicted based upon the ranking of association scores and predicted association types. In terms of drug-disease association prediction, modified causal inference included in CI-PMF outperformed existing causal inference with a higher AUC (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) score and greater precision. Moreover, CI-PMF performed better than single modified causal inference in predicting therapeutic drug-disease associations. In the top 30% of predicted associations, 58.6% (136/232), 50.8% (31/61), and 39.8% (140/352) hit known therapeutic associations, while precisions obtained by the latter were only 10.2% (231/2264), 8.8% (36/411), and 9.7% (189/1948). Clinical verifications were further conducted for the top 100 newly predicted therapeutic associations. As a result, 21, 12, and 32 associations have been studied and

  9. WBSMDA: Within and Between Score for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xing; Yan, Chenggang Clarence; Zhang, Xu; You, Zhu-Hong; Deng, Lixi; Liu, Ying; Zhang, Yongdong; Dai, Qionghai

    2016-01-01

    Increasing evidences have indicated that microRNAs (miRNAs) are functionally associated with the development and progression of various complex human diseases. However, the roles of miRNAs in multiple biological processes or various diseases and their underlying molecular mechanisms still have not been fully understood yet. Predicting potential miRNA-disease associations by integrating various heterogeneous biological datasets is of great significance to the biomedical research. Computational methods could obtain potential miRNA-disease associations in a short time, which significantly reduce the experimental time and cost. Considering the limitations in previous computational methods, we developed the model of Within and Between Score for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (WBSMDA) to predict potential miRNAs associated with various complex diseases. WBSMDA could be applied to the diseases without any known related miRNAs. The AUC of 0.8031 based on Leave-one-out cross validation has demonstrated its reliable performance. WBSMDA was further applied to Colon Neoplasms, Prostate Neoplasms, and Lymphoma for the identification of their potential related miRNAs. As a result, 90%, 84%, and 80% of predicted miRNA-disease pairs in the top 50 prediction list for these three diseases have been confirmed by recent experimental literatures, respectively. It is anticipated that WBSMDA would be a useful resource for potential miRNA-disease association identification. PMID:26880032

  10. Biodiversity decreases disease through predictable changes in host community competence.

    PubMed

    Johnson, Pieter T J; Preston, Daniel L; Hoverman, Jason T; Richgels, Katherine L D

    2013-02-14

    Accelerating rates of species extinctions and disease emergence underscore the importance of understanding how changes in biodiversity affect disease outcomes. Over the past decade, a growing number of studies have reported negative correlations between host biodiversity and disease risk, prompting suggestions that biodiversity conservation could promote human and wildlife health. Yet the generality of the diversity-disease linkage remains conjectural, in part because empirical evidence of a relationship between host competence (the ability to maintain and transmit infections) and the order in which communities assemble has proven elusive. Here we integrate high-resolution field data with multi-scale experiments to show that host diversity inhibits transmission of the virulent pathogen Ribeiroia ondatrae and reduces amphibian disease as a result of consistent linkages among species richness, host composition and community competence. Surveys of 345 wetlands indicated that community composition changed nonrandomly with species richness, such that highly competent hosts dominated in species-poor assemblages whereas more resistant species became progressively more common in diverse assemblages. As a result, amphibian species richness strongly moderated pathogen transmission and disease pathology among 24,215 examined hosts, with a 78.4% decline in realized transmission in richer assemblages. Laboratory and mesocosm manipulations revealed an approximately 50% decrease in pathogen transmission and host pathology across a realistic diversity gradient while controlling for host density, helping to establish mechanisms underlying the diversity-disease relationship and their consequences for host fitness. By revealing a consistent link between species richness and community competence, these findings highlight the influence of biodiversity on infection risk and emphasize the benefit of a community-based approach to understanding infectious diseases.

  11. IRWRLDA: improved random walk with restart for lncRNA-disease association prediction

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Xing; You, Zhu-Hong; Yan, Gui-Ying; Gong, Dun-Wei

    2016-01-01

    In recent years, accumulating evidences have shown that the dysregulations of lncRNAs are associated with a wide range of human diseases. It is necessary and feasible to analyze known lncRNA-disease associations, predict potential lncRNA-disease associations, and provide the most possible lncRNA-disease pairs for experimental validation. Considering the limitations of traditional Random Walk with Restart (RWR), the model of Improved Random Walk with Restart for LncRNA-Disease Association prediction (IRWRLDA) was developed to predict novel lncRNA-disease associations by integrating known lncRNA-disease associations, disease semantic similarity, and various lncRNA similarity measures. The novelty of IRWRLDA lies in the incorporation of lncRNA expression similarity and disease semantic similarity to set the initial probability vector of the RWR. Therefore, IRWRLDA could be applied to diseases without any known related lncRNAs. IRWRLDA significantly improved previous classical models with reliable AUCs of 0.7242 and 0.7872 in two known lncRNA-disease association datasets downloaded from the lncRNADisease database, respectively. Further case studies of colon cancer and leukemia were implemented for IRWRLDA and 60% of lncRNAs in the top 10 prediction lists have been confirmed by recent experimental reports. PMID:27517318

  12. Regionality of disease progression predicts prognosis in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    PubMed

    van der Kleij, Lisa A; Jones, Ashley R; Steen, I Nick; Young, Carolyn A; Shaw, Pamela J; Shaw, Christopher E; Leigh, P Nigel; Turner, Martin R; Al-Chalabi, Ammar

    2015-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a devastating neurological syndrome in which motor neurons degenerate relentlessly. Although the site of onset and the rate of spread have been studied extensively, little is known about whether focal as opposed to diffuse disease affects prognosis. We therefore tested the hypothesis that regionality of disease burden is a prognostic factor in ALS. We analysed clinical data from two large multicentre, longitudinal trials. Regionality was defined as the difference in progression rates in three domains as measured by the revised ALS Functional Rating Scale, omitting the respiratory domain from analysis. We used death by trial end as the outcome variable and tested this by logistic regression against predictor variables including regionality and overall rate of disease progression. There were 561 patients. Regionality of disease was independently associated with significantly higher chance of death by study end (odds ratio most diffuse against most focal category 0.354 (0.191, 0.657), p = 0.001), with a direct relationship between degree of regionality and odds of death. We have shown using clinical trial data that focal disease is associated with a worse prognosis in ALS. Measures of regionality warrant further independent consideration in the development of future prognostic models.

  13. Disease Prediction based on Functional Connectomes using a Scalable and Spatially-Informed Support Vector Machine

    PubMed Central

    Watanabe, Takanori; Kessler, Daniel; Scott, Clayton; Angstadt, Michael; Sripada, Chandra

    2014-01-01

    Substantial evidence indicates that major psychiatric disorders are associated with distributed neural dysconnectivity, leading to strong interest in using neuroimaging methods to accurately predict disorder status. In this work, we are specifically interested in a multivariate approach that uses features derived from whole-brain resting state functional connectomes. However, functional connectomes reside in a high dimensional space, which complicates model interpretation and introduces numerous statistical and computational challenges. Traditional feature selection techniques are used to reduce data dimensionality, but are blind to the spatial structure of the connectomes. We propose a regularization framework where the 6-D structure of the functional connectome (defined by pairs of points in 3-D space) is explicitly taken into account via the fused Lasso or the GraphNet regularizer. Our method only restricts the loss function to be convex and margin-based, allowing non-differentiable loss functions such as the hinge-loss to be used. Using the fused Lasso or GraphNet regularizer with the hinge-loss leads to a structured sparse support vector machine (SVM) with embedded feature selection. We introduce a novel efficient optimization algorithm based on the augmented Lagrangian and the classical alternating direction method, which can solve both fused Lasso and GraphNet regularized SVM with very little modification. We also demonstrate that the inner subproblems of the algorithm can be solved efficiently in analytic form by coupling the variable splitting strategy with a data augmentation scheme. Experiments on simulated data and resting state scans from a large schizophrenia dataset show that our proposed approach can identify predictive regions that are spatially contiguous in the 6-D “connectome space,” offering an additional layer of interpretability that could provide new insights about various disease processes. PMID:24704268

  14. Accuracy of gestalt perception of acute chest pain in predicting coronary artery disease

    PubMed Central

    das Virgens, Cláudio Marcelo Bittencourt; Lemos Jr, Laudenor; Noya-Rabelo, Márcia; Carvalhal, Manuela Campelo; Cerqueira Junior, Antônio Maurício dos Santos; Lopes, Fernanda Oliveira de Andrade; de Sá, Nicole Cruz; Suerdieck, Jéssica Gonzalez; de Souza, Thiago Menezes Barbosa; Correia, Vitor Calixto de Almeida; Sodré, Gabriella Sant'Ana; da Silva, André Barcelos; Alexandre, Felipe Kalil Beirão; Ferreira, Felipe Rodrigues Marques; Correia, Luís Cláudio Lemos

    2017-01-01

    AIM To test accuracy and reproducibility of gestalt to predict obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) in patients with acute chest pain. METHODS We studied individuals who were consecutively admitted to our Chest Pain Unit. At admission, investigators performed a standardized interview and recorded 14 chest pain features. Based on these features, a cardiologist who was blind to other clinical characteristics made unstructured judgment of CAD probability, both numerically and categorically. As the reference standard for testing the accuracy of gestalt, angiography was required to rule-in CAD, while either angiography or non-invasive test could be used to rule-out. In order to assess reproducibility, a second cardiologist did the same procedure. RESULTS In a sample of 330 patients, the prevalence of obstructive CAD was 48%. Gestalt’s numerical probability was associated with CAD, but the area under the curve of 0.61 (95%CI: 0.55-0.67) indicated low level of accuracy. Accordingly, categorical definition of typical chest pain had a sensitivity of 48% (95%CI: 40%-55%) and specificity of 66% (95%CI: 59%-73%), yielding a negligible positive likelihood ratio of 1.4 (95%CI: 0.65-2.0) and negative likelihood ratio of 0.79 (95%CI: 0.62-1.02). Agreement between the two cardiologists was poor in the numerical classification (95% limits of agreement = -71% to 51%) and categorical definition of typical pain (Kappa = 0.29; 95%CI: 0.21-0.37). CONCLUSION Clinical judgment based on a combination of chest pain features is neither accurate nor reproducible in predicting obstructive CAD in the acute setting.

  15. Disease prediction based on functional connectomes using a scalable and spatially-informed support vector machine.

    PubMed

    Watanabe, Takanori; Kessler, Daniel; Scott, Clayton; Angstadt, Michael; Sripada, Chandra

    2014-08-01

    Substantial evidence indicates that major psychiatric disorders are associated with distributed neural dysconnectivity, leading to a strong interest in using neuroimaging methods to accurately predict disorder status. In this work, we are specifically interested in a multivariate approach that uses features derived from whole-brain resting state functional connectomes. However, functional connectomes reside in a high dimensional space, which complicates model interpretation and introduces numerous statistical and computational challenges. Traditional feature selection techniques are used to reduce data dimensionality, but are blind to the spatial structure of the connectomes. We propose a regularization framework where the 6-D structure of the functional connectome (defined by pairs of points in 3-D space) is explicitly taken into account via the fused Lasso or the GraphNet regularizer. Our method only restricts the loss function to be convex and margin-based, allowing non-differentiable loss functions such as the hinge-loss to be used. Using the fused Lasso or GraphNet regularizer with the hinge-loss leads to a structured sparse support vector machine (SVM) with embedded feature selection. We introduce a novel efficient optimization algorithm based on the augmented Lagrangian and the classical alternating direction method, which can solve both fused Lasso and GraphNet regularized SVM with very little modification. We also demonstrate that the inner subproblems of the algorithm can be solved efficiently in analytic form by coupling the variable splitting strategy with a data augmentation scheme. Experiments on simulated data and resting state scans from a large schizophrenia dataset show that our proposed approach can identify predictive regions that are spatially contiguous in the 6-D "connectome space," offering an additional layer of interpretability that could provide new insights about various disease processes.

  16. Predicting Gene-Disease Associations Using Multiple Species Data

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2011-10-20

    regulatory networks from only positive and unlabeled data. BMC Bioinformatics, 11, 2010. [4] Ernesto Estrada and Desmond J. Higham. Network properties revealed...David Warde-Farley, Chris Grouios, and Quaid Morris . GeneMANIA: a real-time multiple association network integration algorithm for predicting gene

  17. Predicting Ebola Severity: A Clinical Prioritization Score for Ebola Virus Disease

    PubMed Central

    Okoni-Williams, Harry Henry; Suma, Mohamed; Mancuso, Brooke; Al-Dikhari, Ahmed; Faouzi, Mohamed

    2017-01-01

    Background Despite the notoriety of Ebola virus disease (EVD) as one of the world’s most deadly infections, EVD has a wide range of outcomes, where asymptomatic infection may be almost as common as fatality. With increasingly sensitive EVD diagnosis, there is a need for more accurate prognostic tools that objectively stratify clinical severity to better allocate limited resources and identify those most in need of intensive treatment. Methods/Principal Findings This retrospective cohort study analyses the clinical characteristics of 158 EVD(+) patients at the GOAL-Mathaska Ebola Treatment Centre, Sierra Leone. The prognostic potential of each characteristic was assessed and incorporated into a statistically weighted disease score. The mortality rate among EVD(+) patients was 60.8% and highest in those aged <5 or >25 years (p<0.05). Death was significantly associated with malaria co-infection (OR = 2.5, p = 0.01). However, this observation was abrogated after adjustment to Ebola viral load (p = 0.1), potentially indicating a pathologic synergy between the infections. Similarly, referral-time interacted with viral load, and adjustment revealed referral-time as a significant determinant of mortality, thus quantifying the benefits of early reporting as a 12% mortality risk reduction per day (p = 0.012). Disorientation was the strongest unadjusted predictor of death (OR = 13.1, p = 0.014) followed by hiccups, diarrhoea, conjunctivitis, dyspnoea and myalgia. Including these characteristics in multivariate prognostic scores, we obtained a 91% and 97% ability to discriminate death at or after triage respectively (area under ROC curve). Conclusions/Significance This study proposes highly predictive and easy-to-use prognostic tools, which stratify the risk of EVD mortality at or after EVD triage. PMID:28151955

  18. A Risk Prediction Score for Invasive Mold Disease in Patients with Hematological Malignancies

    PubMed Central

    Stanzani, Marta; Lewis, Russell E.; Fiacchini, Mauro; Ricci, Paolo; Tumietto, Fabio; Viale, Pierluigi; Ambretti, Simone; Baccarani, Michele; Cavo, Michele; Vianelli, Nicola

    2013-01-01

    Background A risk score for invasive mold disease (IMD) in patients with hematological malignancies could facilitate patient screening and improve the targeted use of antifungal prophylaxis. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 1,709 hospital admissions of 840 patients with hematological malignancies (2005-2008) to collect data on 17 epidemiological and treatment-related risk factors for IMD. Multivariate regression was used to develop a weighted risk score based on independent risk factors associated with proven or probable IMD, which was prospectively validated during 1,746 hospital admissions of 855 patients from 2009-2012. Results Of the 17 candidate variables analyzed, 11 correlated with IMD by univariate analysis, but only 4 risk factors (neutropenia, lymphocytopenia or lymphocyte dysfunction in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients, malignancy status, and prior IMD) were retained in the final multivariate model, resulting in a weighted risk score 0-13. A risk score of < 6 discriminated patients with low (< 1%) versus higher incidence rates (> 5%) of IMD, with a negative predictive value (NPV) of 0.99, (95% CI 0.98-0.99). During 2009-2012, patients with a calculated risk score at admission of < 6 had significantly lower 90-day incidence rates of IMD compared to patients with scores > 6 (0.9% vs. 10.6%, P <0.001). Conclusion An objective, weighted risk score for IMD can accurately discriminate patients with hematological malignancies at low risk for developing mold disease, and could possibly facilitate “screening-out” of low risk patients less likely to benefit from intensive diagnostic monitoring or mold-directed antifungal prophylaxis. PMID:24086555

  19. Predicting Disease Progression in Scleroderma with Skin and Blood Biomarkers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-10-01

    cytokines, DNA, RNA , skin biopsy 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION OF ABSTRACT 18. NUMBER OF PAGES 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON...scans. In the first year we have focused on patient recruitment, clinical characterization, specimen collection (DNA, RNA , skin biopsies, serum...Genes versus Environment in Scleroderma Outcome Study), Interstitial Lung Disease, cytokines, DNA, RNA , skin biopsy 3. Overall Project Summary

  20. Detection and prediction of post harvest carrot diseases

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    Carrot is the most important outdoor vegetable crop in Norway with a market value of NOK 675 million in 2010. Because demand for carrots is year-round but the growing season is short, the crop is typically stored after harvest for as long as 6 months. Diseases that develop during low temperature sto...

  1. Predicting Disease Progression in Scleroderma with Skin and Blood Biomarkers

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-10-01

    Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis , SSc) is a chronic, incurable autoimmune disease associated with high morbidity and mortality primarily due to SSc-lung...utilizing the biospecimens and longitudinal clinical data in the GENISOS cohort to perform an analysis combining data from multiple areas to develop...19, 2014 in Boston. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Scleroderma, Systemic Sclerosis , GENISOS (Genes versus Environment in Scleroderma Outcome Study

  2. Mink Farms Predict Aleutian Disease Exposure in Wild American Mink

    PubMed Central

    Nituch, Larissa A.; Bowman, Jeff; Beauclerc, Kaela B.; Schulte-Hostedde, Albrecht I.

    2011-01-01

    Background Infectious diseases can often be of conservation importance for wildlife. Spillover, when infectious disease is transmitted from a reservoir population to sympatric wildlife, is a particular threat. American mink (Neovison vison) populations across Canada appear to be declining, but factors thus far explored have not fully explained this population trend. Recent research has shown, however, that domestic mink are escaping from mink farms and hybridizing with wild mink. Domestic mink may also be spreading Aleutian disease (AD), a highly pathogenic parvovirus prevalent in mink farms, to wild mink populations. AD could reduce fitness in wild mink by reducing both the productivity of adult females and survivorship of juveniles and adults. Methods To assess the seroprevalence and geographic distribution of AD infection in free-ranging mink in relation to the presence of mink farms, we conducted both a large-scale serological survey, across the province of Ontario, and a smaller-scale survey, at the interface between a mink farm and wild mink. Conclusions/Significance Antibodies to AD were detected in 29% of mink (60 of 208 mink sampled); however, seroprevalence was significantly higher in areas closer to mink farms than in areas farther from farms, at both large and small spatial scales. Our results indicate that mink farms act as sources of AD transmission to the wild. As such, it is likely that wild mink across North America may be experiencing increased exposure to AD, via disease transmission from mink farms, which may be affecting wild mink demographics across their range. In light of declining mink populations, high AD seroprevalence within some mink farms, and the large number of mink farms situated across North America, improved biosecurity measures on farms are warranted to prevent continued disease transmission at the interface between mink farms and wild mink populations. PMID:21789177

  3. Poor Response to Periodontal Treatment May Predict Future Cardiovascular Disease.

    PubMed

    Holmlund, A; Lampa, E; Lind, L

    2017-03-01

    Periodontal disease has been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), but whether the response to the treatment of periodontal disease affects this association has not been investigated in any large prospective study. Periodontal data obtained at baseline and 1 y after treatment were available in 5,297 individuals with remaining teeth who were treated at a specialized clinic for periodontal disease. Poor response to treatment was defined as having >10% sites with probing pocket depth >4 mm deep and bleeding on probing at ≥20% of the sites 1 y after active treatment. Fatal/nonfatal incidence rate of CVD (composite end point of myocardial infarction, stroke, and heart failure) was obtained from the Swedish cause-of-death and hospital discharge registers. Poisson regression analysis was performed to analyze future risk of CVD. During a median follow-up of 16.8 y (89,719 person-years at risk), those individuals who did not respond well to treatment (13.8% of the sample) had an increased incidence of CVD ( n = 870) when compared with responders (23.6 vs. 15.3%, P < 0.001). When adjusting for calendar time, age, sex, educational level, smoking, and baseline values for bleeding on probing, probing pocket depth >4 mm, and number of teeth, the incidence rate ratio for CVD among poor responders was 1.28 (95% CI, 1.07 to 1.53; P = 0.007) as opposed to good responders. The incidence rate ratio among poor responders increased to 1.39 (95% CI, 1.13 to 1.73; P = 0.002) for those with the most remaining teeth. Individuals who did not respond well to periodontal treatment had an increased risk for future CVD, indicating that successful periodontal treatment might influence progression of subclinical CVD.

  4. Common polygenic variation enhances risk prediction for Alzheimer’s disease

    PubMed Central

    Sims, Rebecca; Bannister, Christian; Harold, Denise; Vronskaya, Maria; Majounie, Elisa; Badarinarayan, Nandini; Morgan, Kevin; Passmore, Peter; Holmes, Clive; Powell, John; Brayne, Carol; Gill, Michael; Mead, Simon; Goate, Alison; Cruchaga, Carlos; Lambert, Jean-Charles; van Duijn, Cornelia; Maier, Wolfgang; Ramirez, Alfredo; Holmans, Peter; Jones, Lesley; Hardy, John; Seshadri, Sudha; Schellenberg, Gerard D.; Amouyel, Philippe

    2015-01-01

    The identification of subjects at high risk for Alzheimer’s disease is important for prognosis and early intervention. We investigated the polygenic architecture of Alzheimer’s disease and the accuracy of Alzheimer’s disease prediction models, including and excluding the polygenic component in the model. This study used genotype data from the powerful dataset comprising 17 008 cases and 37 154 controls obtained from the International Genomics of Alzheimer’s Project (IGAP). Polygenic score analysis tested whether the alleles identified to associate with disease in one sample set were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls in an independent sample. The disease prediction accuracy was investigated in a subset of the IGAP data, a sample of 3049 cases and 1554 controls (for whom APOE genotype data were available) by means of sensitivity, specificity, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and positive and negative predictive values. We observed significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in Alzheimer’s disease (P = 4.9 × 10−26). This enrichment remained significant after APOE and other genome-wide associated regions were excluded (P = 3.4 × 10−19). The best prediction accuracy AUC = 78.2% (95% confidence interval 77–80%) was achieved by a logistic regression model with APOE, the polygenic score, sex and age as predictors. In conclusion, Alzheimer’s disease has a significant polygenic component, which has predictive utility for Alzheimer’s disease risk and could be a valuable research tool complementing experimental designs, including preventative clinical trials, stem cell selection and high/low risk clinical studies. In modelling a range of sample disease prevalences, we found that polygenic scores almost doubles case prediction from chance with increased prediction at polygenic extremes. PMID:26490334

  5. Early Prediction of Alzheimer’s Disease Using Null Longitudinal Model-Based Classifiers

    PubMed Central

    Kanaan-Izquierdo, Samir; Mataró-Serrat, María; Perera-Lluna, Alexandre

    2017-01-01

    Incipient Alzheimer’s Disease (AD) is characterized by a slow onset of clinical symptoms, with pathological brain changes starting several years earlier. Consequently, it is necessary to first understand and differentiate age-related changes in brain regions in the absence of disease, and then to support early and accurate AD diagnosis. However, there is poor understanding of the initial stage of AD; seemingly healthy elderly brains lose matter in regions related to AD, but similar changes can also be found in non-demented subjects having mild cognitive impairment (MCI). By using a Linear Mixed Effects approach, we modelled the change of 166 Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI)-based biomarkers available at a 5-year follow up on healthy elderly control (HC, n = 46) subjects. We hypothesized that, by identifying their significant variant (vr) and quasi-variant (qvr) brain regions over time, it would be possible to obtain an age-based null model, which would characterize their normal atrophy and growth patterns as well as the correlation between these two regions. By using the null model on those subjects who had been clinically diagnosed as HC (n = 161), MCI (n = 209) and AD (n = 331), normal age-related changes were estimated and deviation scores (residuals) from the observed MRI-based biomarkers were computed. Subject classification, as well as the early prediction of conversion to MCI and AD, were addressed through residual-based Support Vector Machines (SVM) modelling. We found reductions in most cortical volumes and thicknesses (with evident gender differences) as well as in sub-cortical regions, including greater atrophy in the hippocampus. The average accuracies (ACC) recorded for men and women were: AD-HC: 94.11%, MCI-HC: 83.77% and MCI converted to AD (cAD)-MCI non-converter (sMCI): 76.72%. Likewise, as compared to standard clinical diagnosis methods, SVM classifiers predicted the conversion of cAD to be 1.9 years earlier for females (ACC:72.5%) and 1.4 years

  6. Interspecies scaling of urinary excretory amounts of nine drugs belonging to different therapeutic areas with diverse chemical structures - accurate prediction of the human urinary excretory amounts.

    PubMed

    Bhamidipati, Ravi Kanth; Mullangi, Ramesh; Srinivas, Nuggehally R

    2017-02-01

    1. The human urinary excretory amounts of total drug (parent + metabolites) were predicted for nine drugs with diverse chemical structures using simple allometry. The drugs used for scaling were cephapirin, olanzapine, labetolol, carisbamate, voriconazole, tofacitinib, nevirapine, ropinirole, and cyclindole. 2. The traditional allometric scaling was attempted using Y = aW(b) relationship. The corresponding predicted urinary amounts were converted into % recovery by using appropriate human dose. Appropriate statistical tests comprising of fold-difference (predicted/observed values) and error calculations (MAE and RMSE) were performed. 3. The interspecies scaling of all nine drugs tested showed excellent correlation (r > 0.9672). The predictions for eight out of nine drugs (exception was cephaphirin) were contained within 0.80-1.25 fold-differences. The MAE and RMSE were within ± 18% and 14.64%, respectively. 4. The present work supported the potential application of prospective allometry scaling to predict the urinary excretory amounts of the total drug and gauge any issues for the renal handling of the total drug.

  7. Kinevac-assisted cholescintigraphy as an accurate predictor of chronic acalculus gallbladder disease and the likelihood of symptom relief with cholecystectomy.

    PubMed

    Reed, D N; Fernandez, M; Hicks, R D

    1993-05-01

    Thirty patients with chronic upper abdominal pain and no evidence of cholelithiasis were entered into this study. All had negative ultrasonography of the gallbladder, and most had a host of other negative investigations. These patients were referred to a surgeon to evaluate the possibility of atypical biliary colic associated with chronic acalculous cholecystitis. All patients underwent cholecystokinin-stimulated cholescintigraphy and were offered cholecystectomy if the ejection fraction was less than 35 per cent. Of the 30 patients, 27 (90%) had pathologically abnormal gallbladders. Follow-up averaged over 1 year (13.2 mo), and relief of symptoms occurred in 28 (94%). The authors conclude that in appropriately selected patients with symptoms of biliary colic (typical or atypical) and no evidence of cholelithiasis, a cholecystokinin-stimulated cholescintigram is a significant help in predicting not only which patients have gallbladder disease, but also how likely cholecystectomy is to result in an improvement in their symptoms.

  8. Panel-based Genetic Diagnostic Testing for Inherited Eye Diseases is Highly Accurate and Reproducible and More Sensitive for Variant Detection Than Exome Sequencing

    PubMed Central

    Bujakowska, Kinga M.; Sousa, Maria E.; Fonseca-Kelly, Zoë D.; Taub, Daniel G.; Janessian, Maria; Wang, Dan Yi; Au, Elizabeth D.; Sims, Katherine B.; Sweetser, David A.; Fulton, Anne B.; Liu, Qin; Wiggs, Janey L.; Gai, Xiaowu; Pierce, Eric A.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Next-generation sequencing (NGS) based methods are being adopted broadly for genetic diagnostic testing, but the performance characteristics of these techniques have not been fully defined with regard to test accuracy and reproducibility. Methods We developed a targeted enrichment and NGS approach for genetic diagnostic testing of patients with inherited eye disorders, including inherited retinal degenerations, optic atrophy and glaucoma. In preparation for providing this Genetic Eye Disease (GEDi) test on a CLIA-certified basis, we performed experiments to measure the sensitivity, specificity, reproducibility as well as the clinical sensitivity of the test. Results The GEDi test is highly reproducible and accurate, with sensitivity and specificity for single nucleotide variant detection of 97.9% and 100%, respectively. The sensitivity for variant detection was notably better than the 88.3% achieved by whole exome sequencing (WES) using the same metrics, due to better coverage of targeted genes in the GEDi test compared to commercially available exome capture sets. Prospective testing of 192 patients with IRDs indicated that the clinical sensitivity of the GEDi test is high, with a diagnostic rate of 51%. Conclusion The data suggest that based on quantified performance metrics, selective targeted enrichment is preferable to WES for genetic diagnostic testing. PMID:25412400

  9. Prediction and Prevention of Autoimmune Disease in the 21st Century: A Review and Preview.

    PubMed

    Rose, Noel R

    2016-03-01

    Autoimmune diseases represent a family of at least 80 illnesses that share a common pathogenesis: an immune-mediated attack on the body's own organs. Collectively, autoimmune diseases affect some 20 million Americans, predominantly women. Many of these diseases are increasing in frequency in industrialized countries. Treatment of autoimmune diseases improved greatly during the second half of the 20th century but has been hampered because the diseases often progress before a clinical diagnosis is possible. Research in the 21st century is focusing on prospective prediction using the tools of systems biology.

  10. Oral health indicators poorly predict coronary heart disease deaths.

    PubMed

    Tuominen, R; Reunanen, A; Paunio, M; Paunio, I; Aromaa, A

    2003-09-01

    Several earlier studies have suggested that development of coronary heart disease (CHD) is causally related to oral infections. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between oral health indicators and CHD deaths. Out of a nationally representative sample, 6527 men and women aged 30-69 years participated in the health examination with a dental check. Detailed oral health data included caries, periodontal and dental plaque status, presence of remaining teeth, and various types of dentures. Over a mean 12-year follow-up, persons dying of CHD were older and more often smoked, had hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes, and only a basic education compared with other persons. In univariate analyses, several oral health indicators were associated with CHD deaths. Adjustment for the established CHD risk factors reduced all these associations to statistical non-significance. The associations between oral health indicators and CHD are mostly explained by confounding factors, particularly those relating to health behavior.

  11. White matter hyperintensities predict amyloid increase in Alzheimer's disease.

    PubMed

    Grimmer, Timo; Faust, Maximilian; Auer, Florian; Alexopoulos, Panagiotis; Förstl, Hans; Henriksen, Gjermund; Perneczky, Robert; Sorg, Christian; Yousefi, Behrooz H; Drzezga, Alexander; Kurz, Alexander

    2012-12-01

    Impaired amyloid clearance probably contributes to increased amyloid deposition in sporadic Alzheimer's disease (AD). Diminished perivascular drainage due to cerebral small-vessel disease (CSVD) has been proposed as a cause of reduced amyloid clearance. White matter hyperintensities (WMHs) are considered to reflect CSVD and can be measured using fluid-attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Amyloid deposition can be determined in vivo using Pittsburgh compound B ([11C]PiB) positron emission tomography (PET). We aimed to elucidate the association between WMH and the progression of amyloid deposition in patients with AD. Twenty-two patients with probable AD underwent FLAIR-MRI and [11C]PiB-PET examinations at baseline (BL) and after a mean follow-up (FU) interval of 28 months. The relationship between BL-WMH and the progression of cerebral amyloid between BL and FU was examined using a regions-of-interest (ROI) approach. The region-specific variability of this relationship was analyzed using a voxel-based method. The longitudinal analysis revealed a statistically significant association between the amount of BL-WMH and the progression of amyloid load between BL and FU (p = 0.006, adjusted R2 = 0.375, standardized coefficient β = 0.384). The association was particularly observed in parieto-occipital regions and tended to be closer in regions adjacent to the brain surface. According to our knowledge, this is the first in vivo study in human being supporting the hypothesis that impaired amyloid clearance along perivascular drainage pathways may contribute to β-amyloid deposition in sporadic AD. The extent of WMH might be a relevant factor to be assessed in antiamyloid drug trials.

  12. Predictive genetic testing for cardiovascular diseases: impact on carrier children.

    PubMed

    Meulenkamp, Tineke M; Tibben, Aad; Mollema, Eline D; van Langen, Irene M; Wiegman, Albert; de Wert, Guido M; de Beaufort, Inez D; Wilde, Arthur A M; Smets, Ellen M A

    2008-12-15

    We studied the experiences of children identified by family screening who were found to be a mutation carrier for a genetic cardiovascular disease (Long QT Syndrome (LQTS), Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy (HCM), Familial Hypercholesterolemia (FH)). We addressed the (a) manner in which they perceive their carrier status, (b) impact on their daily lives, and (c) strategy used to cope with these consequences. Children (aged 8-18) who tested positive for LQTS (n=11), HCM (n=6) or FH (n=16), and their parents participated in semi-structured audiotaped interviews. Interview topics included illness perception, use of medication, lifestyle modifications, worries, and coping. Each interview was coded by two researchers. The qualitative analysis was guided by Leventhal's model of self-regulation. The children were overall quite articulate about the disease they were tested for, including its mode of inheritance. They expressed positive future health perceptions, but feelings of controllability varied. Adherence and side-effects were significant themes with regard to medication-use. Refraining from activities and maintaining a non-fat diet were themes concerning lifestyle modifications. Some children spontaneously reported worries about the possibility of dying and frustration about being different from peers. Children coped with these worries by expressing faith in the effectiveness of medication, trying to be similar to peers or, in contrast, emphasizing their "being different." Children generally appeared effective in the way they coped with their carrier status and its implications. Nevertheless, dealing with the daily implications of their condition remains difficult in some situations, warranting continued availability of psychosocial support.

  13. A Review of Quality of Life after Predictive Testing for and Earlier Identification of Neurodegenerative Diseases

    PubMed Central

    Paulsen, Jane S.; Nance, Martha; Kim, Ji-In; Carlozzi, Noelle E.; Panegyres, Peter K.; Erwin, Cheryl; Goh, Anita; McCusker, Elizabeth; Williams, Janet K.

    2013-01-01

    The past decade has witnessed an explosion of evidence suggesting that many neurodegenerative diseases can be detected years, if not decades, earlier than previously thought. To date, these scientific advances have not provoked any parallel translational or clinical improvements. There is an urgency to capitalize on this momentum so earlier detection of disease can be more readily translated into improved health-related quality of life for families at risk for, or suffering with, neurodegenerative diseases. In this review, we discuss health-related quality of life (HRQOL) measurement in neurodegenerative diseases and the importance of these “patient reported outcomes” for all clinical research. Next, we address HRQOL following early identification or predictive genetic testing in some neurodegenerative diseases: Huntington disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, Dementia with Lewy bodies, frontotemporal dementia, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, prion diseases, hereditary ataxias, Dentatorubral-pallidoluysian atrophy and Wilson's disease. After a brief report of available direct-to-consumer genetic tests, we address the juxtaposition of earlier disease identification with assumed reluctance towards predictive genetic testing. Forty-one studies examining health related outcomes following predictive genetic testing for neurodegenerative disease suggested that (a) extreme or catastrophic outcomes are rare; (b) consequences commonly include transiently increased anxiety and/or depression; (c) most participants report no regret; (d) many persons report extensive benefits to receiving genetic information; and (e) stigmatization and discrimination for genetic diseases are poorly understood and policy and laws are needed. Caution is appropriate for earlier identification of neurodegenerative diseases but findings suggest further progress is safe, feasible and likely to advance clinical care. PMID:24036231

  14. Role of the Egami Score in Predicting Intravenous Immunoglobulin Resistance in Kawasaki Disease Among Different Ethnicities.

    PubMed

    Loomba, Rohit S; Raskin, Alexander; Gudausky, Todd M; Kirkpatrick, Edward

    Early treatment with intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) is necessary to help reduce the risk of coronary artery abnormalities, such as coronary artery aneurysms and to help alleviate symptoms, in Kawasaki disease. Some patients, however, do not respond to an initial dose of IVIG and require additional doses. Prediction of these IVIG nonresponders may be of assistance in altering initial therapy to make it more effective. The Egami score has been validated in the Japanese population to predict IVIG nonresponders but has shown to be ineffective in US populations. This study evaluates the Egami score in a Midwest US population, subdividing patients by race and the diagnosis of typical or atypical type of Kawasaki disease. Patients were included in the study if they met criteria for Kawasaki disease and received IVIG in the inpatient setting. A total of 182 patients were studied, and in all studied groups, the Egami score had poor sensitivity at predicting IVIG nonresponders. Sensitivity of the score differed between races and differed between typical and atypical Kawasaki disease. The Egami score, as well as other systems, have been validated to predict IVIG nonresponders. These, however, lack sensitivity in the US population. Other scores developed in the United States have also lacked sensitivity, likely due to the absence of race or Kawasaki disease classification as variables. The development of a sensitive scoring system to predict IVIG nonresponders in US populations will require the incorporation of race and Kawasaki disease classification, factors that seem to alter IVIG response.

  15. Accurate prediction of higher-level electronic structure energies for large databases using neural networks, Hartree-Fock energies, and small subsets of the database.

    PubMed

    Malshe, M; Pukrittayakamee, A; Raff, L M; Hagan, M; Bukkapatnam, S; Komanduri, R

    2009-09-28

    A novel method is presented that significantly reduces the computational bottleneck of executing high-level, electronic structure calculations of the energies and their gradients for a large database that adequately samples the configuration space of importance for systems containing more than four atoms that are undergoing multiple, simultaneous reactions in several energetically open channels. The basis of the method is the high-degree of correlation that generally exists between the Hartree-Fock (HF) and higher-level electronic structure energies. It is shown that if the input vector to a neural network (NN) includes both the configuration coordinates and the HF energies of a small subset of the database, MP4(SDQ) energies with the same basis set can be predicted for the entire database using only the HF and MP4(SDQ) energies for the small subset and the HF energies for the remainder of the database. The predictive error is shown to be less than or equal to the NN fitting error if a NN is fitted to the entire database of higher-level electronic structure energies. The general method is applied to the computation of MP4(SDQ) energies of 68,308 configurations that comprise the database for the simultaneous, unimolecular decomposition of vinyl bromide into six different reaction channels. The predictive accuracy of the method is investigated by employing successively smaller subsets of the database to train the NN to predict the MP4(SDQ) energies of the remaining configurations of the database. The results indicate that for this system, the subset can be as small as 8% of the total number of configurations in the database without loss of accuracy beyond that expected if a NN is employed to fit the higher-level energies for the entire database. The utilization of this procedure is shown to save about 78% of the total computational time required for the execution of the MP4(SDQ) calculations. The sampling error involved with selection of the subset is shown to be

  16. Accurate prediction of higher-level electronic structure energies for large databases using neural networks, Hartree-Fock energies, and small subsets of the database

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Malshe, M.; Pukrittayakamee, A.; Raff, L. M.; Hagan, M.; Bukkapatnam, S.; Komanduri, R.

    2009-09-01

    A novel method is presented that significantly reduces the computational bottleneck of executing high-level, electronic structure calculations of the energies and their gradients for a large database that adequately samples the configuration space of importance for systems containing more than four atoms that are undergoing multiple, simultaneous reactions in several energetically open channels. The basis of the method is the high-degree of correlation that generally exists between the Hartree-Fock (HF) and higher-level electronic structure energies. It is shown that if the input vector to a neural network (NN) includes both the configuration coordinates and the HF energies of a small subset of the database, MP4(SDQ) energies with the same basis set can be predicted for the entire database using only the HF and MP4(SDQ) energies for the small subset and the HF energies for the remainder of the database. The predictive error is shown to be less than or equal to the NN fitting error if a NN is fitted to the entire database of higher-level electronic structure energies. The general method is applied to the computation of MP4(SDQ) energies of 68 308 configurations that comprise the database for the simultaneous, unimolecular decomposition of vinyl bromide into six different reaction channels. The predictive accuracy of the method is investigated by employing successively smaller subsets of the database to train the NN to predict the MP4(SDQ) energies of the remaining configurations of the database. The results indicate that for this system, the subset can be as small as 8% of the total number of configurations in the database without loss of accuracy beyond that expected if a NN is employed to fit the higher-level energies for the entire database. The utilization of this procedure is shown to save about 78% of the total computational time required for the execution of the MP4(SDQ) calculations. The sampling error involved with selection of the subset is shown to be

  17. Predicted Molecular Effects of Sequence Variants Link to System Level of Disease

    PubMed Central

    Bromberg, Yana; Rost, Burkhard

    2016-01-01

    Developments in experimental and computational biology are advancing our understanding of how protein sequence variation impacts molecular protein function. However, the leap from the micro level of molecular function to the macro level of the whole organism, e.g. disease, remains barred. Here, we present new results emphasizing earlier work that suggested some links from molecular function to disease. We focused on non-synonymous single nucleotide variants, also referred to as single amino acid variants (SAVs). Building upon OMIA (Online Mendelian Inheritance in Animals), we introduced a curated set of 117 disease-causing SAVs in animals. Methods optimized to capture effects upon molecular function often correctly predict human (OMIM) and animal (OMIA) Mendelian disease-causing variants. We also predicted effects of human disease-causing variants in the mouse model, i.e. we put OMIM SAVs into mouse orthologs. Overall, fewer variants were predicted with effect in the model organism than in the original organism. Our results, along with other recent studies, demonstrate that predictions of molecular effects capture some important aspects of disease. Thus, in silico methods focusing on the micro level of molecular function can help to understand the macro system level of disease. PMID:27536940

  18. Closed-loop spontaneous baroreflex transfer function is inappropriate for system identification of neural arc but partly accurate for peripheral arc: predictability analysis.

    PubMed

    Kamiya, Atsunori; Kawada, Toru; Shimizu, Shuji; Sugimachi, Masaru

    2011-04-01

    Although the dynamic characteristics of the baroreflex system have been described by baroreflex transfer functions obtained from open-loop analysis, the predictability of time-series output dynamics from input signals, which should confirm the accuracy of system identification, remains to be elucidated. Moreover, despite theoretical concerns over closed-loop system identification, the accuracy and the predictability of the closed-loop spontaneous baroreflex transfer function have not been evaluated compared with the open-loop transfer function. Using urethane and α-chloralose anaesthetized, vagotomized and aortic-denervated rabbits (n = 10), we identified open-loop baroreflex transfer functions by recording renal sympathetic nerve activity (SNA) while varying the vascularly isolated intracarotid sinus pressure (CSP) according to a binary random (white-noise) sequence (operating pressure ± 20 mmHg), and using a simplified equation to calculate closed-loop-spontaneous baroreflex transfer function while matching CSP with systemic arterial pressure (AP). Our results showed that the open-loop baroreflex transfer functions for the neural and peripheral arcs predicted the time-series SNA and AP outputs from measured CSP and SNA inputs, with r2 of 0.8 ± 0.1 and 0.8 ± 0.1, respectively. In contrast, the closed-loop-spontaneous baroreflex transfer function for the neural arc was markedly different from the open-loop transfer function (enhanced gain increase and a phase lead), and did not predict the time-series SNA dynamics (r2; 0.1 ± 0.1). However, the closed-loop-spontaneous baroreflex transfer function of the peripheral arc partially matched the open-loop transfer function in gain and phase functions, and had limited but reasonable predictability of the time-series AP dynamics (r2, 0.7 ± 0.1). A numerical simulation suggested that a noise predominantly in the neural arc under resting conditions might be a possible mechanism responsible for our findings. Furthermore

  19. Use of dose-dependent absorption into target tissues to more accurately predict cancer risk at low oral doses of hexavalent chromium.

    PubMed

    Haney, J

    2015-02-01

    The mouse dose at the lowest water concentration used in the National Toxicology Program hexavalent chromium (CrVI) drinking water study (NTP, 2008) is about 74,500 times higher than the approximate human dose corresponding to the 35-city geometric mean reported in EWG (2010) and over 1000 times higher than that based on the highest reported tap water concentration. With experimental and environmental doses differing greatly, it is a regulatory challenge to extrapolate high-dose results to environmental doses orders of magnitude lower in a meaningful and toxicologically predictive manner. This seems particularly true for the low-dose extrapolation of results for oral CrVI-induced carcinogenesis since dose-dependent differences in the dose fraction absorbed by mouse target tissues are apparent (Kirman et al., 2012). These data can be used for a straightforward adjustment of the USEPA (2010) draft oral slope factor (SFo) to be more predictive of risk at environmentally-relevant doses. More specifically, the evaluation of observed and modeled differences in the fraction of dose absorbed by target tissues at the point-of-departure for the draft SFo calculation versus lower doses suggests that the draft SFo be divided by a dose-specific adjustment factor of at least an order of magnitude to be less over-predictive of risk at more environmentally-relevant doses.

  20. Normal Tissue Complication Probability Estimation by the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman Method Does Not Accurately Predict Spinal Cord Tolerance to Stereotactic Radiosurgery

    SciTech Connect

    Daly, Megan E.; Luxton, Gary; Choi, Clara Y.H.; Gibbs, Iris C.; Chang, Steven D.; Adler, John R.; Soltys, Scott G.

    2012-04-01

    Purpose: To determine whether normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) analyses of the human spinal cord by use of the Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model, supplemented by linear-quadratic modeling to account for the effect of fractionation, predict the risk of myelopathy from stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS). Methods and Materials: From November 2001 to July 2008, 24 spinal hemangioblastomas in 17 patients were treated with SRS. Of the tumors, 17 received 1 fraction with a median dose of 20 Gy (range, 18-30 Gy) and 7 received 20 to 25 Gy in 2 or 3 sessions, with cord maximum doses of 22.7 Gy (range, 17.8-30.9 Gy) and 22.0 Gy (range, 20.2-26.6 Gy), respectively. By use of conventional values for {alpha}/{beta}, volume parameter n, 50% complication probability dose TD{sub 50}, and inverse slope parameter m, a computationally simplified implementation of the LKB model was used to calculate the biologically equivalent uniform dose and NTCP for each treatment. Exploratory calculations were performed with alternate values of {alpha}/{beta} and n. Results: In this study 1 case (4%) of myelopathy occurred. The LKB model using radiobiological parameters from Emami and the logistic model with parameters from Schultheiss overestimated complication rates, predicting 13 complications (54%) and 18 complications (75%), respectively. An increase in the volume parameter (n), to assume greater parallel organization, improved the predictive value of the models. Maximum-likelihood LKB fitting of {alpha}/{beta} and n yielded better predictions (0.7 complications), with n = 0.023 and {alpha}/{beta} = 17.8 Gy. Conclusions: The spinal cord tolerance to the dosimetry of SRS is higher than predicted by the LKB model using any set of accepted parameters. Only a high {alpha}/{beta} value in the LKB model and only a large volume effect in the logistic model with Schultheiss data could explain the low number of complications observed. This finding emphasizes that radiobiological models

  1. Toward Proof of Concept of a One Health Approach to Disease Prediction and Control

    PubMed Central

    Kock, Richard; Kachani, Malika; Kunkel, Rebekah; Thomas, Jason; Gilbert, Jeffrey; Wallace, Robert; Blackmore, Carina; Wong, David; Karesh, William; Natterson, Barbara; Dugas, Raymond; Rubin, Carol

    2013-01-01

    A One Health approach considers the role of changing environments with regard to infectious and chronic disease risks affecting humans and nonhuman animals. Recent disease emergence events have lent support to a One Health approach. In 2010, the Stone Mountain Working Group on One Health Proof of Concept assembled and evaluated the evidence regarding proof of concept of the One Health approach to disease prediction and control. Aspects examined included the feasibility of integrating human, animal, and environmental health and whether such integration could improve disease prediction and control efforts. They found evidence to support each of these concepts but also identified the need for greater incorporation of environmental and ecosystem factors into disease assessments and interventions. The findings of the Working Group argue for larger controlled studies to evaluate the comparative effectiveness of the One Health approach. PMID:24295136

  2. Utilizing Dental Electronic Health Records Data to Predict Risk for Periodontal Disease.

    PubMed

    Thyvalikakath, Thankam P; Padman, Rema; Vyawahare, Karnali; Darade, Pratiksha; Paranjape, Rhucha

    2015-01-01

    Periodontal disease is a major cause for tooth loss and adversely affects individuals' oral health and quality of life. Research shows its potential association with systemic diseases like diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and social habits such as smoking. This study explores mining potential risk factors from dental electronic health records to predict and display patients' contextualized risk for periodontal disease. We retrieved relevant risk factors from structured and unstructured data on 2,370 patients who underwent comprehensive oral examinations at the Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis, IN, USA. Predicting overall risk and displaying relationships between risk factors and their influence on the patient's oral and general health can be a powerful educational and disease management tool for patients and clinicians at the point of care.

  3. Explaining the disease phenotype of intergenic SNP through predicted long range regulation

    PubMed Central

    Chen, Jingqi; Tian, Weidong

    2016-01-01

    Thousands of disease-associated SNPs (daSNPs) are located in intergenic regions (IGR), making it difficult to understand their association with disease phenotypes. Recent analysis found that non-coding daSNPs were frequently located in or approximate to regulatory elements, inspiring us to try to explain the disease phenotypes of IGR daSNPs through nearby regulatory sequences. Hence, after locating the nearest distal regulatory element (DRE) to a given IGR daSNP, we applied a computational method named INTREPID to predict the target genes regulated by the DRE, and then investigated their functional relevance to the IGR daSNP's disease phenotypes. 36.8% of all IGR daSNP-disease phenotype associations investigated were possibly explainable through the predicted target genes, which were enriched with, were functionally relevant to, or consisted of the corresponding disease genes. This proportion could be further increased to 60.5% if the LD SNPs of daSNPs were also considered. Furthermore, the predicted SNP-target gene pairs were enriched with known eQTL/mQTL SNP-gene relationships. Overall, it's likely that IGR daSNPs may contribute to disease phenotypes by interfering with the regulatory function of their nearby DREs and causing abnormal expression of disease genes. PMID:27280978

  4. Lost in translation: preclinical studies on 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine provide information on mechanisms of action, but do not allow accurate prediction of adverse events in humans

    PubMed Central

    Green, AR; King, MV; Shortall, SE; Fone, KCF

    2012-01-01

    3,4-Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) induces both acute adverse effects and long-term neurotoxic loss of brain 5-HT neurones in laboratory animals. However, when choosing doses, most preclinical studies have paid little attention to the pharmacokinetics of the drug in humans or animals. The recreational use of MDMA and current clinical investigations of the drug for therapeutic purposes demand better translational pharmacology to allow accurate risk assessment of its ability to induce adverse events. Recent pharmacokinetic studies on MDMA in animals and humans are reviewed and indicate that the risks following MDMA ingestion should be re-evaluated. Acute behavioural and body temperature changes result from rapid MDMA-induced monoamine release, whereas long-term neurotoxicity is primarily caused by metabolites of the drug. Therefore acute physiological changes in humans are fairly accurately mimicked in animals by appropriate dosing, although allometric dosing calculations have little value. Long-term changes require MDMA to be metabolized in a similar manner in experimental animals and humans. However, the rate of metabolism of MDMA and its major metabolites is slower in humans than rats or monkeys, potentially allowing endogenous neuroprotective mechanisms to function in a species specific manner. Furthermore acute hyperthermia in humans probably limits the chance of recreational users ingesting sufficient MDMA to produce neurotoxicity, unlike in the rat. MDMA also inhibits the major enzyme responsible for its metabolism in humans thereby also assisting in preventing neurotoxicity. These observations question whether MDMA alone produces long-term 5-HT neurotoxicity in human brain, although when taken in combination with other recreational drugs it may induce neurotoxicity. LINKED ARTICLES This article is commented on by Parrott, pp. 1518–1520 of this issue. To view this commentary visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1476-5381.2012.01941.x and to view the the

  5. Spatial prediction of wheat Septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici) disease severity in central Ethiopia

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Wakie, Tewodros; Kumar, Sunil; Senay, Gabriel; Takele, Abera; Lencho, Alemu

    2016-01-01

    A number of studies have reported the presence of wheat septoria leaf blotch (Septoria tritici; SLB) disease in Ethiopia. However, the environmental factors associated with SLB disease, and areas under risk of SLB disease, have not been studied. Here, we tested the hypothesis that environmental variables can adequately explain observed SLB disease severity levels in West Shewa, Central Ethiopia. Specifically, we identified 50 environmental variables and assessed their relationships with SLB disease severity. Geographically referenced disease severity data were obtained from the field, and linear regression and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) modeling approaches were used for developing spatial models. Moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) derived vegetation indices and land surface temperature (LST) variables highly influenced SLB model predictions. Soil and topographic variables did not sufficiently explain observed SLB disease severity variation in this study. Our results show that wheat growing areas in Central Ethiopia, including highly productive districts, are at risk of SLB disease. The study demonstrates the integration of field data with modeling approaches such as BRT for predicting the spatial patterns of severity of a pathogenic wheat disease in Central Ethiopia. Our results can aid Ethiopia's wheat disease monitoring efforts, while our methods can be replicated for testing related hypotheses elsewhere.

  6. Lesion Explorer: a video-guided, standardized protocol for accurate and reliable MRI-derived volumetrics in Alzheimer's disease and normal elderly.

    PubMed

    Ramirez, Joel; Scott, Christopher J M; McNeely, Alicia A; Berezuk, Courtney; Gao, Fuqiang; Szilagyi, Gregory M; Black, Sandra E

    2014-04-14

    Obtaining in vivo human brain tissue volumetrics from MRI is often complicated by various technical and biological issues. These challenges are exacerbated when significant brain atrophy and age-related white matter changes (e.g. Leukoaraiosis) are present. Lesion Explorer (LE) is an accurate and reliable neuroimaging pipeline specifically developed to address such issues commonly observed on MRI of Alzheimer's disease and normal elderly. The pipeline is a complex set of semi-automatic procedures which has been previously validated in a series of internal and external reliability tests(1,2). However, LE's accuracy and reliability is highly dependent on properly trained manual operators to execute commands, identify distinct anatomical landmarks, and manually edit/verify various computer-generated segmentation outputs. LE can be divided into 3 main components, each requiring a set of commands and manual operations: 1) Brain-Sizer, 2) SABRE, and 3) Lesion-Seg. Brain-Sizer's manual operations involve editing of the automatic skull-stripped total intracranial vault (TIV) extraction mask, designation of ventricular cerebrospinal fluid (vCSF), and removal of subtentorial structures. The SABRE component requires checking of image alignment along the anterior and posterior commissure (ACPC) plane, and identification of several anatomical landmarks required for regional parcellation. Finally, the Lesion-Seg component involves manual checking of the automatic lesion segmentation of subcortical hyperintensities (SH) for false positive errors. While on-site training of the LE pipeline is preferable, readily available visual teaching tools with interactive training images are a viable alternative. Developed to ensure a high degree of accuracy and reliability, the following is a step-by-step, video-guided, standardized protocol for LE's manual procedures.

  7. Intestinal Intraepithelial Lymphocyte Cytometric Pattern Is More Accurate than Subepithelial Deposits of Anti-Tissue Transglutaminase IgA for the Diagnosis of Celiac Disease in Lymphocytic Enteritis

    PubMed Central

    García-Puig, Roger; Rosinach, Mercè; González, Clarisa; Alsina, Montserrat; Loras, Carme; Salas, Antonio; Viver, Josep M.; Esteve, Maria

    2014-01-01

    Background & Aims An increase in CD3+TCRγδ+ and a decrease in CD3− intraepithelial lymphocytes (IEL) is a characteristic flow cytometric pattern of celiac disease (CD) with atrophy. The aim was to evaluate the usefulness of both CD IEL cytometric pattern and anti-TG2 IgA subepithelial deposit analysis (CD IF pattern) for diagnosing lymphocytic enteritis due to CD. Methods Two-hundred and five patients (144 females) who underwent duodenal biopsy for clinical suspicion of CD and positive celiac genetics were prospectively included. Fifty had villous atrophy, 70 lymphocytic enteritis, and 85 normal histology. Eight patients with non-celiac atrophy and 15 with lymphocytic enteritis secondary to Helicobacter pylori acted as control group. Duodenal biopsies were obtained to assess both CD IEL flow cytometric (complete or incomplete) and IF patterns. Results Sensitivity of IF, and complete and incomplete cytometric patterns for CD diagnosis in patients with positive serology (Marsh 1+3) was 92%, 85 and 97% respectively, but only the complete cytometric pattern had 100% specificity. Twelve seropositive and 8 seronegative Marsh 1 patients had a CD diagnosis at inclusion or after gluten free-diet, respectively. CD cytometric pattern showed a better diagnostic performance than both IF pattern and serology for CD diagnosis in lymphocytic enteritis at baseline (95% vs 60% vs 60%, p = 0.039). Conclusions Analysis of the IEL flow cytometric pattern is a fast, accurate method for identifying CD in the initial diagnostic biopsy of patients presenting with lymphocytic enteritis, even in seronegative patients, and seems to be better than anti-TG2 intestinal deposits. PMID:25010214

  8. The CUPIC algorithm: an accurate model for the prediction of sustained viral response under telaprevir or boceprevir triple therapy in cirrhotic patients.

    PubMed

    Boursier, J; Ducancelle, A; Vergniol, J; Veillon, P; Moal, V; Dufour, C; Bronowicki, J-P; Larrey, D; Hézode, C; Zoulim, F; Fontaine, H; Canva, V; Poynard, T; Allam, S; De Lédinghen, V

    2015-12-01

    Triple therapy using boceprevir or telaprevir remains the reference treatment for genotype 1 chronic hepatitis C in countries where new interferon-free regimens have not yet become available. Antiviral treatment is highly required in cirrhotic patients, but they represent a difficult-to-treat population. We aimed to develop a simple algorithm for the prediction of sustained viral response (SVR) in cirrhotic patients treated with triple therapy. A total of 484 cirrhotic patients from the ANRS CO20 CUPIC cohort treated with triple therapy were randomly distributed into derivation and validation sets. A total of 52.1% of patients achieved SVR. In the derivation set, a D0 score for the prediction of SVR before treatment initiation included the following independent predictors collected at day 0: prior treatment response, gamma-GT, platelets, telaprevir treatment, viral load. To refine the prediction at the early phase of the treatment, a W4 score included as additional parameter the viral load collected at week 4. The D0 and W4 scores were combined in the CUPIC algorithm defining three subgroups: 'no treatment initiation or early stop at week 4', 'undetermined' and 'SVR highly probable'. In the validation set, the rates of SVR in these three subgroups were, respectively, 11.1%, 50.0% and 82.2% (P < 0.001). By replacing the variable 'prior treatment response' with 'IL28B genotype', another algorithm was derived for treatment-naïve patients with similar results. The CUPIC algorithm is an easy-to-use tool that helps physicians weigh their decision between immediately treating cirrhotic patients using boceprevir/telaprevir triple therapy or waiting for new drugs to become available in their country.

  9. Biomarkers of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection: specific neutrophil and cytokine levels provide increased accuracy in predicting disease severity.

    PubMed

    Brown, Paul M; Schneeberger, Dana L; Piedimonte, Giovanni

    2015-09-01

    Despite fundamental advances in the research on respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) since its initial identification almost 60 years ago, recurring failures in developing vaccines and pharmacologic strategies effective in controlling the infection have allowed RSV to become a leading cause of global infant morbidity and mortality. Indeed, the burden of this infection on families and health care organizations worldwide continues to escalate and its financial costs are growing. Furthermore, strong epidemiologic evidence indicates that early-life lower respiratory tract infections caused by RSV lead to the development of recurrent wheezing and childhood asthma. While some progress has been made in the identification of reliable biomarkers for RSV bronchiolitis, a "one size fits all" biomarker capable of accurately and consistently predicting disease severity and post-acute outcomes has yet to be discovered. Therefore, it is of great importance on a global scale to identify useful biomarkers for this infection that will allow pediatricians to cost-effectively predict the clinical course of the disease, as well as monitor the efficacy of new therapeutic strategies.

  10. Homocysteine as a predictive biomarker in early diagnosis of renal failure susceptibility and prognostic diagnosis for end stages renal disease.

    PubMed

    Amin, Hatem K; El-Sayed, Mohamed-I Kotb; Leheta, Ola F

    2016-09-01

    Glomerular filtration rate and/or creatinine are not accurate methods for renal failure prediction. This study tested homocysteine (Hcy) as a predictive and prognostic marker for end stage renal disease (ESRD). In total, 176 subjects were recruited and divided into: healthy normal group (108 subjects); mild-to-moderate impaired renal function group (21 patients); severe impaired renal function group (7 patients); and chronic renal failure group (40 patients) who were on regular hemodialysis. Blood samples were collected, and serum was separated for analysis of total Hcy, creatinine, high sensitive C-reactive protein (CRP), serum albumin, and calcium. Data showed that Hcy level was significantly increased from normal-to-mild impairment then significantly decreases from mild impairment until the patient reaches severe impairment while showing significant elevation in the last stage of chronic renal disease. Creatinine level was increased in all stages of kidney impairment in comparison with control. CRP level was showing significant elevation in the last stage. A significant decrease in both albumin and calcium was occurred in all stages of renal impairment. We conclude Hcy in combination with CRP, creatinine, albumin, and calcium can be used as a prognostic marker for ESRD and an early diagnostic marker for the risk of renal failure.

  11. Ab initio molecular dynamics of liquid water using embedded-fragment second-order many-body perturbation theory towards its accurate property prediction

    PubMed Central

    Willow, Soohaeng Yoo; Salim, Michael A.; Kim, Kwang S.; Hirata, So

    2015-01-01

    A direct, simultaneous calculation of properties of a liquid using an ab initio electron-correlated theory has long been unthinkable. Here we present structural, dynamical, and response properties of liquid water calculated by ab initio molecular dynamics using the embedded-fragment spin-component-scaled second-order many-body perturbation method with the aug-cc-pVDZ basis set. This level of theory is chosen as it accurately and inexpensively reproduces the water dimer potential energy surface from the coupled-cluster singles, doubles, and noniterative triples with the aug-cc-pVQZ basis set, which is nearly exact. The calculated radial distribution function, self-diffusion coefficient, coordinate number, and dipole moment, as well as the infrared and Raman spectra are in excellent agreement with experimental results. The shapes and widths of the OH stretching bands in the infrared and Raman spectra and their isotropic-anisotropic Raman noncoincidence, which reflect the diverse local hydrogen-bond environment, are also reproduced computationally. The simulation also reveals intriguing dynamic features of the environment, which are difficult to probe experimentally, such as a surprisingly large fluctuation in the coordination number and the detailed mechanism by which the hydrogen donating water molecules move across the first and second shells, thereby causing this fluctuation. PMID:26400690

  12. Accurate prediction of diradical chemistry from a single-reference density-matrix method: Model application to the bicyclobutane to gauche-1,3-butadiene isomerization

    SciTech Connect

    Bertels, Luke W.; Mazziotti, David A.

    2014-07-28

    Multireference correlation in diradical molecules can be captured by a single-reference 2-electron reduced-density-matrix (2-RDM) calculation with only single and double excitations in the 2-RDM parametrization. The 2-RDM parametrization is determined by N-representability conditions that are non-perturbative in their treatment of the electron correlation. Conventional single-reference wave function methods cannot describe the entanglement within diradical molecules without employing triple- and potentially even higher-order excitations of the mean-field determinant. In the isomerization of bicyclobutane to gauche-1,3-butadiene the parametric 2-RDM (p2-RDM) method predicts that the diradical disrotatory transition state is 58.9 kcal/mol above bicyclobutane. This barrier is in agreement with previous multireference calculations as well as recent Monte Carlo and higher-order coupled cluster calculations. The p2-RDM method predicts the Nth natural-orbital occupation number of the transition state to be 0.635, revealing its diradical character. The optimized geometry from the p2-RDM method differs in important details from the complete-active-space self-consistent-field geometry used in many previous studies including the Monte Carlo calculation.

  13. Accurate Prediction of Glucuronidation of Structurally Diverse Phenolics by Human UGT1A9 Using Combined Experimental and In Silico Approaches

    PubMed Central

    Wu, Baojian; Wang, Xiaoqiang; Zhang, Shuxing; Hu, Ming

    2012-01-01

    Purpose The catalytic selectivity of human UGT1A9, an important membrane-bound enzyme catalyzing glucuronidation of xenobiotics were determined experimentally using 145 phenolics, and analyzed by 3D-QSAR methods. Methods The catalytic efficiency of UGT1A9 was determined by kinetic profiling. Quantitative structure activity relationships were analyzed using the CoMFA and CoMSIA techniques. Molecular alignment of the substrate structures was made by superimposing the glucuronidation site and its adjacent aromatic ring to achieve maximal steric overlap. For a substrate with multiple active glucuronidation sites, each site was considered as a separate substrate. Results The 3D-QSAR analyses produced statistically reliable models with good predictive power (CoMFA: q2 = 0.548, r2= 0.949, r2pred = 0.775; CoMSIA: q2 = 0.579, r2= 0.876, r2pred = 0.700). The contour coefficient maps were applied to elucidate structural features among substrates that are responsible for the selectivity differences. Furthermore, the contour coefficient maps were overlaid in the catalytic pocket of a homology model of UGT1A9; this enabled us to identify the UGT1A9 catalytic pocket with a high degree of confidence. Conclusion The CoMFA/CoMSIA models can predict the substrate selectivity and in vitro clearance of UGT1A9. Our findings also provide a possible molecular basis for understanding UGT1A9 functions and its substrate selectivity. PMID:22302521

  14. Molecular genetic predictive testing for Alzheimer's disease: deliberations and preliminary recommendations.

    PubMed

    Lennox, A; Karlinsky, H; Meschino, W; Buchanan, J A; Percy, M E; Berg, J M

    1994-01-01

    Forty-one participants representing diverse professional back-grounds attended a workshop on genetic predictive testing for familial Alzheimer's disease (FAD) on January 23, 1993 at Surrey Place Centre in Toronto, Canada. Rapidly emerging molecular genetic findings in AD indicate that predictive testing is now technologically feasible for selected individuals, although defining eligibility criteria remains problematic. Legal, ethical, biomedical, and psychosocial issues related to establishing predictive testing programs for AD were discussed at the workshop. This article reflects these discussions, provides the current biomedical background for them and examines the Huntington's disease (HD) predictive testing experience. Observations concerning molecular genetic predictive testing for AD in light of its genetic heterogeneity and clinical characteristics, such as usual later age of onset than HD, are presented. It is proposed that predictive testing for AD can now be cautiously offered in a research setting primarily according to the recommendations contained within the Ethical Issues Policy Statement on Huntington's Disease Molecular Genetics Predictive Test. However, in their application to AD, some points in the statement are considered to require emphasis, modification, or currently to be of uncertain applicability. This represents an initial step in an on-going process of debate concerning AD that will be required as new advances occur in genetic and clinical research and in bioethics.

  15. Computational prediction of microRNA networks incorporating environmental toxicity and disease etiology

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, Jie; Wu, Zengrui; Cheng, Feixiong; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

    2014-07-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play important roles in multiple biological processes and have attracted much scientific attention recently. Their expression can be altered by environmental factors (EFs), which are associated with many diseases. Identification of the phenotype-genotype relationships among miRNAs, EFs, and diseases at the network level will help us to better understand toxicology mechanisms and disease etiologies. In this study, we developed a computational systems toxicology framework to predict new associations among EFs, miRNAs and diseases by integrating EF structure similarity and disease phenotypic similarity. Specifically, three comprehensive bipartite networks: EF-miRNA, EF-disease and miRNA-disease associations, were constructed to build predictive models. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves using 10-fold cross validation ranged from 0.686 to 0.910. Furthermore, we successfully inferred novel EF-miRNA-disease networks in two case studies for breast cancer and cigarette smoke. Collectively, our methods provide a reliable and useful tool for the study of chemical risk assessment and disease etiology involving miRNAs.

  16. Computational prediction of microRNA networks incorporating environmental toxicity and disease etiology

    PubMed Central

    Li, Jie; Wu, Zengrui; Cheng, Feixiong; Li, Weihua; Liu, Guixia; Tang, Yun

    2014-01-01

    MicroRNAs (miRNAs) play important roles in multiple biological processes and have attracted much scientific attention recently. Their expression can be altered by environmental factors (EFs), which are associated with many diseases. Identification of the phenotype-genotype relationships among miRNAs, EFs, and diseases at the network level will help us to better understand toxicology mechanisms and disease etiologies. In this study, we developed a computational systems toxicology framework to predict new associations among EFs, miRNAs and diseases by integrating EF structure similarity and disease phenotypic similarity. Specifically, three comprehensive bipartite networks: EF-miRNA, EF-disease and miRNA-disease associations, were constructed to build predictive models. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves using 10-fold cross validation ranged from 0.686 to 0.910. Furthermore, we successfully inferred novel EF-miRNA-disease networks in two case studies for breast cancer and cigarette smoke. Collectively, our methods provide a reliable and useful tool for the study of chemical risk assessment and disease etiology involving miRNAs. PMID:24992957

  17. Is scoring system of computed tomography based metric parameters can accurately predicts shock wave lithotripsy stone-free rates and aid in the development of treatment strategies?

    PubMed Central

    Badran, Yasser Ali; Abdelaziz, Alsayed Saad; Shehab, Mohamed Ahmed; Mohamed, Hazem Abdelsabour Dief; Emara, Absel-Aziz Ali; Elnabtity, Ali Mohamed Ali; Ghanem, Maged Mohammed; ELHelaly, Hesham Abdel Azim

    2016-01-01

    Objective: The objective was to determine the predicting success of shock wave lithotripsy (SWL) using a combination of computed tomography based metric parameters to improve the treatment plan. Patients and Methods: Consecutive 180 patients with symptomatic upper urinary tract calculi 20 mm or less were enrolled in our study underwent extracorporeal SWL were divided into two main groups, according to the stone size, Group A (92 patients with stone ≤10 mm) and Group B (88 patients with stone >10 mm). Both groups were evaluated, according to the skin to stone distance (SSD) and Hounsfield units (≤500, 500–1000 and >1000 HU). Results: Both groups were comparable in baseline data and stone characteristics. About 92.3% of Group A rendered stone-free, whereas 77.2% were stone-free in Group B (P = 0.001). Furthermore, in both group SWL success rates was a significantly higher for stones with lower attenuation <830 HU than with stones >830 HU (P < 0.034). SSD were statistically differences in SWL outcome (P < 0.02). Simultaneous consideration of three parameters stone size, stone attenuation value, and SSD; we found that stone-free rate (SFR) was 100% for stone attenuation value <830 HU for stone <10 mm or >10 mm but total number SWL sessions and shock waves required for the larger stone group were higher than in the smaller group (P < 0.01). Furthermore, SFR was 83.3% and 37.5% for stone <10 mm, mean HU >830, SSD 90 mm and SSD >120 mm, respectively. On the other hand, SFR was 52.6% and 28.57% for stone >10 mm, mean HU >830, SSD <90 mm and SSD >120 mm, respectively. Conclusion: Stone size, stone density (HU), and SSD is simple to calculate and can be reported by radiologists to applying combined score help to augment predictive power of SWL, reduce cost, and improving of treatment strategies. PMID:27141192

  18. SNP development from RNA-seq data in a nonmodel fish: how many individuals are needed for accurate allele frequency prediction?

    PubMed

    Schunter, C; Garza, J C; Macpherson, E; Pascual, M

    2014-01-01

    Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are rapidly becoming the marker of choice in population genetics due to a variety of advantages relative to other markers, including higher genomic density, data quality, reproducibility and genotyping efficiency, as well as ease of portability between laboratories. Advances in sequencing technology and methodologies to reduce genomic representation have made the isolation of SNPs feasible for nonmodel organisms. RNA-seq is one such technique for the discovery of SNPs and development of markers for large-scale genotyping. Here, we report the development of 192 validated SNP markers for parentage analysis in Tripterygion delaisi (the black-faced blenny), a small rocky-shore fish from the Mediterranean Sea. RNA-seq data for 15 individual samples were used for SNP discovery by applying a series of selection criteria. Genotypes were then collected from 1599 individuals from the same population with the resulting loci. Differences in heterozygosity and allele frequencies were found between the two data sets. Heterozygosity was lower, on average, in the population sample, and the mean difference between the frequencies of particular alleles in the two data sets was 0.135 ± 0.100. We used bootstrap resampling of the sequence data to predict appropriate sample sizes for SNP discovery. As cDNA library production is time-consuming and expensive, we suggest that using seven individuals for RNA sequencing reduces the probability of discarding highly informative SNP loci, due to lack of observed polymorphism, whereas use of more than 12 samples does not considerably improve prediction of true allele frequencies.

  19. HGIMDA: Heterogeneous graph inference for miRNA-disease association prediction

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, Xu; You, Zhu-Hong; Huang, Yu-An; Yan, Gui-Ying

    2016-01-01

    Recently, microRNAs (miRNAs) have drawn more and more attentions because accumulating experimental studies have indicated miRNA could play critical roles in multiple biological processes as well as the development and progression of human complex diseases. Using the huge number of known heterogeneous biological datasets to predict potential associations between miRNAs and diseases is an important topic in the field of biology, medicine, and bioinformatics. In this study, considering the limitations in the previous computational methods, we developed the computational model of Heterogeneous Graph Inference for MiRNA-Disease Association prediction (HGIMDA) to uncover potential miRNA-disease associations by integrating miRNA functional similarity, disease semantic similarity, Gaussian interaction profile kernel similarity, and experimentally verified miRNA-disease associations into a heterogeneous graph. HGIMDA obtained AUCs of 0.8781 and 0.8077 based on global and local leave-one-out cross validation, respectively. Furthermore, HGIMDA was applied to three important human cancers for performance evaluation. As a result, 90% (Colon Neoplasms), 88% (Esophageal Neoplasms) and 88% (Kidney Neoplasms) of top 50 predicted miRNAs are confirmed by recent experiment reports. Furthermore, HGIMDA could be effectively applied to new diseases and new miRNAs without any known associations, which overcome the important limitations of many previous computational models. PMID:27533456

  20. Gamma-Glutamyltransferase: A Predictive Biomarker of Cellular Antioxidant Inadequacy and Disease Risk

    PubMed Central

    Koenig, Gerald; Seneff, Stephanie

    2015-01-01

    Gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) is a well-established serum marker for alcohol-related liver disease. However, GGT's predictive utility applies well beyond liver disease: elevated GGT is linked to increased risk to a multitude of diseases and conditions, including cardiovascular disease, diabetes, metabolic syndrome (MetS), and all-cause mortality. The literature from multiple population groups worldwide consistently shows strong predictive power for GGT, even across different gender and ethnic categories. Here, we examine the relationship of GGT to other serum markers such as serum ferritin (SF) levels, and we suggest a link to exposure to environmental and endogenous toxins, resulting in oxidative and nitrosative stress. We observe a general upward trend in population levels of GGT over time, particularly in the US and Korea. Since the late 1970s, both GGT and incident MetS and its related disorders have risen in virtual lockstep. GGT is an early predictive marker for atherosclerosis, heart failure, arterial stiffness and plaque, gestational diabetes, and various liver diseases, including viral hepatitis, other infectious diseases, and several life-threatening cancers. We review literature both from the medical sciences and from life insurance industries demonstrating that serum GGT is a superior marker for future disease risk, when compared against multiple other known mortality risk factors. PMID:26543300

  1. Phenotype-optimized sequence ensembles substantially improve prediction of disease-causing mutation in cystic fibrosis.

    PubMed

    Masica, David L; Sosnay, Patrick R; Cutting, Garry R; Karchin, Rachel

    2012-08-01

    Cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator (CFTR) mutation is associated with a phenotypic spectrum that includes cystic fibrosis (CF). The disease liability of some common CFTR mutations is known, but rare mutations are seen in too few patients to categorize unequivocally, making genetic diagnosis difficult. Computational methods can predict the impact of mutation, but prediction specificity is often below that required for clinical utility. Here, we present a novel supervised learning approach for predicting CF from CFTR missense mutation. The algorithm begins by constructing custom multiple sequence alignments called phenotype-optimized sequence ensembles (POSEs). POSEs are constructed iteratively, by selecting sequences that optimize predictive performance on a training set of CFTR mutations of known clinical significance. Next, we predict CF disease liability from a different set of CFTR mutations (test-set mutations). This approach achieves improved prediction performance relative to popular methods recently assessed using the same test-set mutations. Of clinical significance, our method achieves 94% prediction specificity. Because databases such as HGMD and locus-specific mutation databases are growing rapidly, methods that automatically tailor their predictions for a specific phenotype may be of immediate utility. If the performance achieved here generalizes to other systems, the approach could be an excellent tool to help establish genetic diagnoses.

  2. Predicting disease progression from short biomarker series using expert advice algorithm.

    PubMed

    Morino, Kai; Hirata, Yoshito; Tomioka, Ryota; Kashima, Hisashi; Yamanishi, Kenji; Hayashi, Norihiro; Egawa, Shin; Aihara, Kazuyuki

    2015-05-20

    Well-trained clinicians may be able to provide diagnosis and prognosis from very short biomarker series using information and experience gained from previous patients. Although mathematical methods can potentially help clinicians to predict the progression of diseases, there is no method so far that estimates the patient state from very short time-series of a biomarker for making diagnosis and/or prognosis by employing the information of previous patients. Here, we propose a mathematical framework for integrating other patients' datasets to infer and predict the state of the disease in the current patient based on their short history. We extend a machine-learning framework of "prediction with expert advice" to deal with unstable dynamics. We construct this mathematical framework by combining expert advice with a mathematical model of prostate cancer. Our model predicted well the individual biomarker series of patients with prostate cancer that are used as clinical samples.

  3. TU-EF-204-01: Accurate Prediction of CT Tube Current Modulation: Estimating Tube Current Modulation Schemes for Voxelized Patient Models Used in Monte Carlo Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    McMillan, K; Bostani, M; McNitt-Gray, M; McCollough, C

    2015-06-15

    Purpose: Most patient models used in Monte Carlo-based estimates of CT dose, including computational phantoms, do not have tube current modulation (TCM) data associated with them. While not a problem for fixed tube current simulations, this is a limitation when modeling the effects of TCM. Therefore, the purpose of this work was to develop and validate methods to estimate TCM schemes for any voxelized patient model. Methods: For 10 patients who received clinically-indicated chest (n=5) and abdomen/pelvis (n=5) scans on a Siemens CT scanner, both CT localizer radiograph (“topogram”) and image data were collected. Methods were devised to estimate the complete x-y-z TCM scheme using patient attenuation data: (a) available in the Siemens CT localizer radiograph/topogram itself (“actual-topo”) and (b) from a simulated topogram (“sim-topo”) derived from a projection of the image data. For comparison, the actual TCM scheme was extracted from the projection data of each patient. For validation, Monte Carlo simulations were performed using each TCM scheme to estimate dose to the lungs (chest scans) and liver (abdomen/pelvis scans). Organ doses from simulations using the actual TCM were compared to those using each of the estimated TCM methods (“actual-topo” and “sim-topo”). Results: For chest scans, the average differences between doses estimated using actual TCM schemes and estimated TCM schemes (“actual-topo” and “sim-topo”) were 3.70% and 4.98%, respectively. For abdomen/pelvis scans, the average differences were 5.55% and 6.97%, respectively. Conclusion: Strong agreement between doses estimated using actual and estimated TCM schemes validates the methods for simulating Siemens topograms and converting attenuation data into TCM schemes. This indicates that the methods developed in this work can be used to accurately estimate TCM schemes for any patient model or computational phantom, whether a CT localizer radiograph is available or not

  4. Full-Dimensional Potential Energy and Dipole Moment Surfaces of GeH4 Molecule and Accurate First-Principle Rotationally Resolved Intensity Predictions in the Infrared.

    PubMed

    Nikitin, A V; Rey, M; Rodina, A; Krishna, B M; Tyuterev, Vl G

    2016-11-17

    Nine-dimensional potential energy surface (PES) and dipole moment surface (DMS) of the germane molecule are constructed using extended ab initio CCSD(T) calculations at 19 882 points. PES analytical representation is determined as an expansion in nonlinear symmetry adapted products of orthogonal and internal coordinates involving 340 parameters up to eighth order. Minor empirical refinement of the equilibrium geometry and of four quadratic parameters of the PES computed at the CCSD(T)/aug-cc-pVQZ-DK level of the theory yielded the accuracy below 1 cm(-1) for all experimentally known vibrational band centers of five stable isotopologues of (70)GeH4, (72)GeH4, (73)GeH4, (74)GeH4, and (76)GeH4 up to 8300 cm(-1). The optimized equilibrium bond re = 1.517 594 Å is very close to best ab initio values. Rotational energies up to J = 15 are calculated using potential expansion in normal coordinate tensors with maximum errors of 0.004 and 0.0006 cm(-1) for (74)GeH4 and (76)GeH4. The DMS analytical representation is determined through an expansion in symmetry-adapted products of internal nonlinear coordinates involving 967 parameters up to the sixth order. Vibration-rotation line intensities of five stable germane isotopologues were calculated from purely ab initio DMS using nuclear motion variational calculations with a full account of the tetrahedral symmetry of the molecules. For the first time a good overall agreement of main absorption features with experimental rotationally resolved Pacific Northwest National Laboratory spectra was achieved in the entire range of 700-5300 cm(-1). It was found that very accurate description of state-dependent isotopic shifts is mandatory to correctly describe complex patterns of observed spectra at natural isotopic abundance resulting from the superposition of five stable isotopologues. The data obtained in this work will be made available through the TheoReTS information system.

  5. View of God as benevolent and forgiving or punishing and judgmental predicts HIV disease progression.

    PubMed

    Ironson, Gail; Stuetzle, Rick; Ironson, Dale; Balbin, Elizabeth; Kremer, Heidemarie; George, Annie; Schneiderman, Neil; Fletcher, Mary Ann

    2011-12-01

    This study assessed the predictive relationship between View of God beliefs and change in CD4-cell and Viral Load (VL) in HIV positive people over an extended period. A diverse sample of HIVseropositive participants (N = 101) undergoing comprehensive psychological assessment and blood draws over the course of 4 years completed the View of God Inventory with subscales measuring Positive View (benevolent/forgiving) and Negative View of God (harsh/judgmental/punishing). Adjusting for initial disease status, age, gender, ethnicity, education, and antiretroviral medication (at every 6-month visit), a Positive View of God predicted significantly slower disease-progression (better preservation of CD4-cells, better control of VL), whereas a Negative View of God predicted faster disease-progression over 4 years. Effect sizes were greater than those previously demonstrated for psychosocial variables known to predict HIV-disease-progression, such as depression and coping. Results remained significant even after adjusting for church attendance and psychosocial variables (health behaviors, mood, and coping). These results provide good initial evidence that spiritual beliefs may predict health outcomes.

  6. Accurate prediction of hard-sphere virial coefficients B6 to B12 from a compressibility-based equation of state

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hansen-Goos, Hendrik

    2016-04-01

    We derive an analytical equation of state for the hard-sphere fluid that is within 0.01% of computer simulations for the whole range of the stable fluid phase. In contrast, the commonly used Carnahan-Starling equation of state deviates by up to 0.3% from simulations. The derivation uses the functional form of the isothermal compressibility from the Percus-Yevick closure of the Ornstein-Zernike relation as a starting point. Two additional degrees of freedom are introduced, which are constrained by requiring the equation of state to (i) recover the exact fourth virial coefficient B4 and (ii) involve only integer coefficients on the level of the ideal gas, while providing best possible agreement with the numerical result for B5. Virial coefficients B6 to B10 obtained from the equation of state are within 0.5% of numerical computations, and coefficients B11 and B12 are within the error of numerical results. We conjecture that even higher virial coefficients are reliably predicted.

  7. A machine-learning approach reveals that alignment properties alone can accurately predict inference of lateral gene transfer from discordant phylogenies.

    PubMed

    Roettger, Mayo; Martin, William; Dagan, Tal

    2009-09-01

    Among the methods currently used in phylogenomic practice to detect the presence of lateral gene transfer (LGT), one of the most frequently employed is the comparison of gene tree topologies for different genes. In cases where the phylogenies for different genes are incompatible, or discordant, for well-supported branches there are three simple interpretations for the result: 1) gene duplications (paralogy) followed by many independent gene losses have occurred, 2) LGT has occurred, or 3) the phylogeny is well supported but for reasons unknown is nonetheless incorrect. Here, we focus on the third possibility by examining the properties of 22,437 published multiple sequence alignments, the Bayesian maximum likelihood trees for which either do or do not suggest the occurrence of LGT by the criterion of discordant branches. The alignments that produce discordant phylogenies differ significantly in several salient alignment properties from those that do not. Using a support vector machine, we were able to predict the inference of discordant tree topologies with up to 80% accuracy from alignment properties alone.

  8. Accurate prediction of hard-sphere virial coefficients B6 to B12 from a compressibility-based equation of state.

    PubMed

    Hansen-Goos, Hendrik

    2016-04-28

    We derive an analytical equation of state for the hard-sphere fluid that is within 0.01% of computer simulations for the whole range of the stable fluid phase. In contrast, the commonly used Carnahan-Starling equation of state deviates by up to 0.3% from simulations. The derivation uses the functional form of the isothermal compressibility from the Percus-Yevick closure of the Ornstein-Zernike relation as a starting point. Two additional degrees of freedom are introduced, which are constrained by requiring the equation of state to (i) recover the exact fourth virial coefficient B4 and (ii) involve only integer coefficients on the level of the ideal gas, while providing best possible agreement with the numerical result for B5. Virial coefficients B6 to B10 obtained from the equation of state are within 0.5% of numerical computations, and coefficients B11 and B12 are within the error of numerical results. We conjecture that even higher virial coefficients are reliably predicted.

  9. Accurate predictions of spectroscopic and molecular properties of 27 Λ-S and 73 Ω states of AsS radical.

    PubMed

    Shi, Deheng; Song, Ziyue; Niu, Xianghong; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2016-01-15

    The PECs are calculated for the 27 Λ-S states and their corresponding 73 Ω states of AsS radical. Of these Λ-S states, only the 2(2)Δ and 5(4)Π states are replulsive. The 1(2)Σ(+), 2(2)Σ(+), 4(2)Π, 3(4)Δ, 3(4)Σ(+), and 4(4)Π states possess double wells. The 3(2)Σ(+) state possesses three wells. The A(2)Π, 3(2)Π, 1(2)Φ, 2(4)Π, 3(4)Π, 2(4)Δ, 3(4)Δ, 1(6)Σ(+), and 1(6)Π states are inverted with the SO coupling effect included. The 1(4)Σ(+), 2(4)Σ(+), 2(4)Σ(-), 2(4)Δ, 1(4)Φ, 1(6)Σ(+), and 1(6)Π states, the second wells of 1(2)Σ(+), 3(4)Σ(+), 4(2)Π, 4(4)Π, and 3(4)Δ states, and the third well of 3(2)Σ(+) state are very weakly-bound states. The PECs are extrapolated to the CBS limit. The effect of SO coupling on the PECs is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters are evaluated, and compared with available measurements and other theoretical ones. The vibrational properties of several weakly-bound states are determined. The spectroscopic properties reported here can be expected to be reliably predicted ones.

  10. Accurate predictions of spectroscopic and molecular properties of 27 Λ-S and 73 Ω states of AsS radical

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shi, Deheng; Song, Ziyue; Niu, Xianghong; Sun, Jinfeng; Zhu, Zunlue

    2016-01-01

    The PECs are calculated for the 27 Λ-S states and their corresponding 73 Ω states of AsS radical. Of these Λ-S states, only the 22Δ and 54Π states are replulsive. The 12Σ+, 22Σ+, 42Π, 34Δ, 34Σ+, and 44Π states possess double wells. The 32Σ+ state possesses three wells. The A2Π, 32Π, 12Φ, 24Π, 34Π, 24Δ, 34Δ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states are inverted with the SO coupling effect included. The 14Σ+, 24Σ+, 24Σ-, 24Δ, 14Φ, 16Σ+, and 16Π states, the second wells of 12Σ+, 34Σ+, 42Π, 44Π, and 34Δ states, and the third well of 32Σ+ state are very weakly-bound states. The PECs are extrapolated to the CBS limit. The effect of SO coupling on the PECs is discussed. The spectroscopic parameters are evaluated, and compared with available measurements and other theoretical ones. The vibrational properties of several weakly-bound states are determined. The spectroscopic properties reported here can be expected to be reliably predicted ones.

  11. Framework for Smart Electronic Health Record- Linked Predictive Models to Optimize Care for Complex Digestive Diseases

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-08-01

    etc, disease location descriptors, Lupus , Thyroid disease, Rheumatoid arthritis, history of Appendectomy, psoriasis. The Crohn’s work is also...of a patient’s clinical history . This information is usually not rich enough to develop predictive models. To construct a useful patient profile...collaboration to achieve this goal given their history of successful development of informatics applications and our clinical research in complex GI

  12. Genetic testing in Tunisian families with heritable retinoblastoma using a low cost approach permits accurate risk prediction in relatives and reveals incomplete penetrance in adults.

    PubMed

    Ayari Jeridi, Hajer; Bouguila, Hédi; Ansperger-Rescher, Birgit; Baroudi, Olfa; Mdimegh, Imen; Omran, Ines; Charradi, Khaoula; Bouzayene, Hssan; Benammar-Elgaaïed, Amel; Lohmann, Dietmar R

    2014-07-01

    Heritable retinoblastoma is caused by oncogenic mutations in the RB1 tumor suppressor gene. Identification of these mutations in patients is important for genetic counseling and clinical management of relatives at risk. In order to lower analytical efforts, we designed a stepwise mutation detection strategy that was adapted to the spectrum of oncogenic RB1 gene mutations. We applied this strategy on 20 unrelated patients with familial and/or de novo bilateral retinoblastoma from Tunisia. In 19 (95%) patients, we detected oncogenic mutations including base substitutions, small length mutations, and large deletions. Further analyses on the origin of the mutations showed mutational mosaicism in one unilaterally affected father of a bilateral proband and incomplete penetrance in two mothers. In a large family with several retinoblastoma patients, the mutation identified in the index patient was also detected in several non-penetrant relatives. RNA analyses showed that this mutation results in an in-frame loss of exon 9. In summary, our strategy can serve as a model for RB1 mutation identification with high analytical sensitivity. Our results point out that genetic testing is needed to reveal or exclude incomplete penetrance specifically in parents of patients with sporadic disease.

  13. Objective knowledge about Huntington's disease and attitudes towards predictive tests of persons at risk.

    PubMed Central

    Teltscher, B; Polgar, S

    1981-01-01

    The task of genetic counselling of people at risk for Huntington's disease might be facilitated by increased knowledge of relevant population characteristics. The aim of the present study was to clarify select socioeconomic characteristics, knowledge concerning the disease, and attitudes towards predictive tests of people at 50% risk of inheriting Huntington's disease in the state of Victoria. A random sample of subjects was drawn from the Huntington's disease register and 50 questionnaires were analysed. Respondents completed three questionnaires which covered their socioeconomic characteristics, the extent and accuracy of their knowledge about the genetic, progress, and treatment of Huntington's disease, and their attitude and acceptance of predictive tests as well as their intentions about future reproduction. A very positive attitude was found to be held by the respondents towards a predictive test if it was safe, reliable, and non-invasive. Resultant problems which would arise, should a reliable test be found, are discussed. The respondent's knowledge concerning the disease was found to be adequate generally. PMID:6454786

  14. Route prediction model of infectious diseases for 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kim, Eungyeong; Lee, Seok; Byun, Young Tae; Kim, Jae Hun; Lee, Hyuk-jae; Lee, Taikjin

    2014-03-01

    There are many types of respiratory infectious diseases caused by germs, virus, mycetes and parasites. Researchers recently have tried to develop mathematical models to predict the epidemic of infectious diseases. However, with the development of ground transportation system in modern society, the spread of infectious diseases became faster and more complicated in terms of the speed and the pathways. The route of infectious diseases during Vancouver Olympics was predicted based on the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model. In this model only the air traffic as an essential factor for the intercity migration of infectious diseases was involved. Here, we propose a multi-city transmission model to predict the infection route during 2018 Winter Olympics in Korea based on the pre-existing SIR model. Various types of transportation system such as a train, a car, a bus, and an airplane for the interpersonal contact in both inter- and intra-city are considered. Simulation is performed with assumptions and scenarios based on realistic factors including demographic, transportation and diseases data in Korea. Finally, we analyze an economic profit and loss caused by the variation of the number of tourists during the Olympics.

  15. Establishing Precise Evolutionary History of a Gene Improves Predicting Disease Causing Missense Mutations

    PubMed Central

    Adebali, Ogun; Reznik, Alexander O.; Ory, Daniel S.; Zhulin, Igor B.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose Predicting the phenotypic effects of mutations has become an important application in clinical genetic diagnostics. Computational tools evaluate the behavior of the variant over evolutionary time and assume that variations seen during the course of evolution are likely benign in humans. However, current tools do not take into account orthologous/paralogous relationships. Paralogs have dramatically different roles in Mendelian diseases. For example, while inactivating mutations in the NPC1 gene cause the neurodegenerative disorder Niemann-Pick C, inactivating mutations in its paralog NPC1L1 are not disease-causing and moreover are implicated in protection from coronary heart disease. Methods We identified major events in NPC1 evolution and revealed and compared orthologs and paralogs of the human NPC1 gene through phylogenetic and protein sequence analyses. We predicted whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function by reducing the organism’s fitness. Results Removing the paralogs and distant homologs improved the overall performance of categorizing disease-causing and benign amino acid substitutions. Conclusion The results show that a thorough evolutionary analysis followed by identification of orthologs improves the accuracy in predicting disease-causing missense mutations. We anticipate that this approach will be used as a reference in the interpretation of variants in other genetic diseases as well. PMID:26890452

  16. Establishing the precise evolutionary history of a gene improves prediction of disease-causing missense mutations

    SciTech Connect

    Adebali, Ogun; Reznik, Alexander O.; Ory, Daniel S.; Zhulin, Igor B.

    2016-02-18

    Here, predicting the phenotypic effects of mutations has become an important application in clinical genetic diagnostics. Computational tools evaluate the behavior of the variant over evolutionary time and assume that variations seen during the course of evolution are probably benign in humans. However, current tools do not take into account orthologous/paralogous relationships. Paralogs have dramatically different roles in Mendelian diseases. For example, whereas inactivating mutations in the NPC1 gene cause the neurodegenerative disorder Niemann-Pick C, inactivating mutations in its paralog NPC1L1 are not disease-causing and, moreover, are implicated in protection from coronary heart disease. Methods: We identified major events in NPC1 evolution and revealed and compared orthologs and paralogs of the human NPC1 gene through phylogenetic and protein sequence analyses. We predicted whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function by reducing the organism s fitness. As a result, removing the paralogs and distant homologs improved the overall performance of categorizing disease-causing and benign amino acid substitutions. In conclusion, the results show that a thorough evolutionary analysis followed by identification of orthologs improves the accuracy in predicting disease-causing missense mutations. We anticipate that this approach will be used as a reference in the interpretation of variants in other genetic diseases as well.

  17. Establishing the precise evolutionary history of a gene improves prediction of disease-causing missense mutations

    DOE PAGES

    Adebali, Ogun; Reznik, Alexander O.; Ory, Daniel S.; ...

    2016-02-18

    Here, predicting the phenotypic effects of mutations has become an important application in clinical genetic diagnostics. Computational tools evaluate the behavior of the variant over evolutionary time and assume that variations seen during the course of evolution are probably benign in humans. However, current tools do not take into account orthologous/paralogous relationships. Paralogs have dramatically different roles in Mendelian diseases. For example, whereas inactivating mutations in the NPC1 gene cause the neurodegenerative disorder Niemann-Pick C, inactivating mutations in its paralog NPC1L1 are not disease-causing and, moreover, are implicated in protection from coronary heart disease. Methods: We identified major events inmore » NPC1 evolution and revealed and compared orthologs and paralogs of the human NPC1 gene through phylogenetic and protein sequence analyses. We predicted whether an amino acid substitution affects protein function by reducing the organism s fitness. As a result, removing the paralogs and distant homologs improved the overall performance of categorizing disease-causing and benign amino acid substitutions. In conclusion, the results show that a thorough evolutionary analysis followed by identification of orthologs improves the accuracy in predicting disease-causing missense mutations. We anticipate that this approach will be used as a reference in the interpretation of variants in other genetic diseases as well.« less

  18. The M. D. Anderson Symptom Inventory-Head and Neck Module, a Patient-Reported Outcome Instrument, Accurately Predicts the Severity of Radiation-Induced Mucositis

    SciTech Connect

    Rosenthal, David I. Mendoza, Tito R.; Chambers, Mark; Burkett, V. Shannon; Garden, Adam S.; Hessell, Amy C.; Lewin, Jan S.; Ang, K. Kian; Kies, Merrill S.

    2008-12-01

    Purpose: To compare the M. D. Anderson Symptom Inventory-Head and Neck (MDASI-HN) module, a symptom burden instrument, with the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-Head and Neck (FACT-HN) module, a quality-of-life instrument, for the assessment of mucositis in patients with head-and-neck cancer treated with radiotherapy and to identify the most distressing symptoms from the patient's perspective. Methods and Materials: Consecutive patients with head-and-neck cancer (n = 134) completed the MDASI-HN and FACT-HN before radiotherapy (time 1) and after 6 weeks of radiotherapy or chemoradiotherapy (time 2). The mean global and subscale scores for each instrument were compared with the objective mucositis scores determined from the National Cancer Institute Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3.0. Results: The global and subscale scores for each instrument showed highly significant changes from time 1 to time 2 and a significant correlation with the objective mucositis scores at time 2. Only the MDASI scores, however, were significant predictors of objective Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events mucositis scores on multivariate regression analysis (standardized regression coefficient, 0.355 for the global score and 0.310 for the head-and-neck cancer-specific score). Most of the moderate and severe symptoms associated with mucositis as identified on the MDASI-HN are not present on the FACT-HN. Conclusion: Both the MDASI-HN and FACT-HN modules can predict the mucositis scores. However, the MDASI-HN, a symptom burden instrument, was more closely associated with the severity of radiation-induced mucositis than the FACT-HN on multivariate regression analysis. This greater association was most likely related to the inclusion of a greater number of face-valid mucositis-related items in the MDASI-HN compared with the FACT-HN.

  19. Physical Activity Level Improves the Predictive Accuracy of Cardiovascular Disease Risk Score: The ATTICA Study (2002–2012)

    PubMed Central

    Georgousopoulou, Ekavi N.; Panagiotakos, Demosthenes B.; Bougatsas, Dimitrios; Chatzigeorgiou, Michael; Kavouras, Stavros A.; Chrysohoou, Christina; Skoumas, Ioannis; Tousoulis, Dimitrios; Stefanadis, Christodoulos; Pitsavos, Christos

    2016-01-01

    Background: Although physical activity (PA) has long been associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD), assessment of PA status has never been used as a part of CVD risk prediction tools. The aim of the present work was to examine whether the inclusion of PA status in a CVD risk model improves its predictive accuracy. Methods: Data from the 10-year follow-up (2002–2012) of the n = 2020 participants (aged 18–89 years) of the ATTICA prospective study were used to test the research hypothesis. The HellenicSCORE (that incorporates age, sex, smoking, total cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure levels) was calculated to estimate the baseline 10-year CVD risk; assessment of PA status was based on the International Physical Activity Questionnaire. The estimated CVD risk was tested against the observed 10-year incidence (i.e., development of acute coronary syndromes, stroke, or other CVD according to the World Health Organization [WHO]-International Classification of Diseases [ICD]-10 criteria). Changes in the predictive ability of the nested CVD risk model that contained the HellenicSCORE plus PA assessment were evaluated using Harrell's C and net reclassification index. Results: Both HellenicSCORE and PA status were predictors of future CVD events (P < 0.05). However, the estimating classification bias of the model that included only the HellenicSCORE was significantly reduced when PA assessment was included (Harrel's C = 0.012, P = 0.032); this reduction remained significant even when adjusted for diabetes mellitus and dietary habits (P < 0.05). Conclusions: CVD risk scores seem to be more accurate by incorporating individuals’ PA status; thus, may be more effective tools in primary prevention by efficiently allocating CVD candidates. PMID:27076890

  20. Accurate quantum chemical calculations

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bauschlicher, Charles W., Jr.; Langhoff, Stephen R.; Taylor, Peter R.

    1989-01-01

    An important goal of quantum chemical calculations is to provide an understanding of chemical bonding and molecular electronic structure. A second goal, the prediction of energy differences to chemical accuracy, has been much harder to attain. First, the computational resources required to achieve such accuracy are very large, and second, it is not straightforward to demonstrate that an apparently accurate result, in terms of agreement with experiment, does not result from a cancellation of errors. Recent advances in electronic structure methodology, coupled with the power of vector supercomput