Science.gov

Sample records for activities-specific balance confidence

  1. Reliability, Validity, and Sensitivity to Change of Turkish Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale in Patients with Unilateral Peripheral Vestibular Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karapolat, Hale; Eyigor, Sibel; Kirazli, Yesim; Celebisoy, Nese; Bilgen, Cem; Kirazli, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, construct validity, and sensitivity to change of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) in people with peripheral vestibular disorder. Thirty-three patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disease were included in the study. Patients were…

  2. Golfers have better balance control and confidence than healthy controls.

    PubMed

    Gao, Kelly L; Hui-Chan, Christina W Y; Tsang, William W N

    2011-11-01

    In a well-executed golf swing, golfers must maintain good balance and precise control of posture. Golfing also requires prolonged walking over uneven ground such as a hilly course. Therefore, repeated golf practice may enhance balance control and confidence in the golfers. The objective is to investigate whether older golfers had better balance control and confidence than non-golfing older, healthy adults. This is a cross-sectional study, conducted at a University-based rehabilitation center. Eleven golfers and 12 control subjects (all male; mean age: 66.2 ± 6.8 and 71.3 ± 6.6 years, respectively) were recruited. Two balance control tests were administered: (1) functional reach test which measured subjects' maximum forward distance in standing; (2) sensory organization test (SOT) which examined subjects' abilities to use somatosensory, visual, and vestibular inputs to control body sway during stance. The modified Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) determined subject's balance confidence in daily activities. The golfers were found to achieve significantly longer distance in the functional reach test than controls. They manifested significantly better balance than controls in the visual ratio and vestibular ratio, but not the somatosensory ratio of the SOT. The golfers also reported significantly higher balance confidence score ratios. Furthermore, older adults' modified ABC score ratios showed positive correlations with functional reach, visual and vestibular ratios, but not with somatosensory ratio. Golfing is an activity which may enhance both the physical and psychological aspects of balance control. Significant correlations between these measures reveal the importance of the balance control under reduced or conflicting sensory conditions in older adults' balance confidence in their daily activities. Since cause-and-effect could not be established in the present cross-sectional study, further prospective intervention design is warranted. PMID

  3. Relationships between fear of falling, balance confidence, and control of balance, gait, and reactive stepping in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

    PubMed

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Inness, Elizabeth L; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Fear of falling is common in individuals with stroke; however, the associations between fear of falling, balance confidence, and the control of balance and gait are not well understood for this population. This study aimed to determine whether, at the time of admission to in-patient rehabilitation, specific features of balance and gait differed between individuals with stroke who did and did not report fear of falling, and whether these features were related to balance confidence. Individuals with stroke entering in-patient rehabilitation were asked if they were afraid of falling, and completed the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale. Participants performed quiet standing, gait, and reactive stepping tasks, and specific measures were extracted for each (quiet standing: centre of pressure amplitude, between-limb synchronization, and Romberg quotients; gait: walking velocity, double support time, and variability measures; reactive stepping: number of steps, frequency of grasp reactions, and frequency of assists). No significant differences were identified between individuals with and without fear of falling. Balance confidence was negatively related to centre of pressure amplitude, double support time, and step time variability, and positively related to walking velocity. Low balance confidence was related to poor quiet standing balance control and cautious behavior when walking in individuals with sub-acute stroke. While the causal relationship between balance confidence and the control of balance and gait is unclear from the current work, these findings suggest there may be a role for interventions to increase balance confidence among individuals with stroke, in order to improve functional mobility.

  4. Relationships between fear of falling, balance confidence, and control of balance, gait, and reactive stepping in individuals with sub-acute stroke

    PubMed Central

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Inness, Elizabeth L.; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Fear of falling is common in individuals with stroke; however, the associations between fear of falling, balance confidence, and the control of balance and gait are not well understood for this population. This study aimed to determine whether, at the time of admission to in-patient rehabilitation, specific features of balance and gait differed between individuals with stroke who did and did not report fear of falling, and whether these features were related to balance confidence. Individuals with stroke entering inpatient rehabilitation were asked if they were afraid of falling, and completed the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale. Participants performed quiet standing, gait, and reactive stepping tasks, and specific measures were extracted for each (quiet standing: centre of pressure amplitude, between-limb synchronization, and Romberg quotients; gait: walking velocity, double support time, and variability measures; reactive stepping: number of steps, frequency of grasp reactions, and frequency of assists). No significant differences were identified between individuals with and without fear of falling. Balance confidence was negatively related to centre of pressure amplitude, double support time, and step time variability, and positively related to walking velocity. Low balance confidence was related to poor quiet standing balance control and cautious behavior when walking in individuals with sub-acute stroke. While the causal relationship between balance confidence and the control of balance and gait is unclear from the current work, these findings suggest there may be a role for interventions to increase balance confidence among individuals with stroke, in order to improve functional mobility. PMID:26482234

  5. Relationships between fear of falling, balance confidence, and control of balance, gait, and reactive stepping in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

    PubMed

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Inness, Elizabeth L; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Fear of falling is common in individuals with stroke; however, the associations between fear of falling, balance confidence, and the control of balance and gait are not well understood for this population. This study aimed to determine whether, at the time of admission to in-patient rehabilitation, specific features of balance and gait differed between individuals with stroke who did and did not report fear of falling, and whether these features were related to balance confidence. Individuals with stroke entering in-patient rehabilitation were asked if they were afraid of falling, and completed the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale. Participants performed quiet standing, gait, and reactive stepping tasks, and specific measures were extracted for each (quiet standing: centre of pressure amplitude, between-limb synchronization, and Romberg quotients; gait: walking velocity, double support time, and variability measures; reactive stepping: number of steps, frequency of grasp reactions, and frequency of assists). No significant differences were identified between individuals with and without fear of falling. Balance confidence was negatively related to centre of pressure amplitude, double support time, and step time variability, and positively related to walking velocity. Low balance confidence was related to poor quiet standing balance control and cautious behavior when walking in individuals with sub-acute stroke. While the causal relationship between balance confidence and the control of balance and gait is unclear from the current work, these findings suggest there may be a role for interventions to increase balance confidence among individuals with stroke, in order to improve functional mobility. PMID:26482234

  6. Using uncertainty analysis and groundwater measurements to improve the confidence of river water balance estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Adams, R.; Costelloe, J. F.; Western, A. W.; George, B.

    2013-10-01

    An improved understanding of water balances of rivers is fundamental in water resource management. Effective use of a water balance approach requires thorough identification of sources of uncertainty around all terms in the analysis and can benefit from additional, independent information that can be used to interpret the accuracy of the residual term of a water balance. We use a Monte Carlo approach to estimate a longitudinal river channel water balance and to identify its sources of uncertainty for a regulated river in south-eastern Australia, assuming that the residual term of this water balance represents fluxes between groundwater and the river. Additional information from short term monitoring of ungauged tributaries and groundwater heads is used to further test our confidence in the estimates of error and variance for the major components of this water balance. We identify the following conclusions from the water balance analysis. First, improved identification of the major sources of error in consecutive reaches of a catchment can be used to support monitoring infrastructure design to best reduce the largest sources of error in a water balance. Second, estimation of ungauged inflow using rainfall-runoff modelling is sensitive to the representativeness of available gauged data in characterising the flow regime of sub-catchments along a perennial to intermittent continuum. Lastly, comparison of temporal variability of stream-groundwater head difference data and a residual water balance term provides an independent means of assessing the assumption that the residual term represents net stream-groundwater fluxes.

  7. Functional Mobility Performance and Balance Confidence in Older Adults after Sensorimotor Adaptation Training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buccello-Stout, Regina R.; Cromwell, Ronita L.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Weaver, G. D.

    2010-01-01

    Research indicates a main contributor of injury in older adults is from falling. The decline in sensory systems limits information needed to successfully maneuver through the environment. The objective of this study was to determine if prolonged exposure to the realignment of perceptual-motor systems increases adaptability of balance, and if balance confidence improves after training. A total of 16 older adults between ages 65-85 were randomized to a control group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a static visual scene) and an experimental group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a rotating visual scene). Prior to visual exposure, participants completed six trials of walking through a soft foamed obstacle course. Participants came in twice a week for 4 weeks to complete training of walking on a treadmill and viewing the visual scene for 20 minutes each session. Participants completed the obstacle course after training and four weeks later. Average time, penalty, and Activity Balance Confidence Scale scores were computed for both groups across testing times. The older adults who trained, significantly improved their time through the obstacle course F (2, 28) = 9.41, p < 0.05, as well as reduced their penalty scores F (2, 28) = 21.03, p < 0.05, compared to those who did not train. There was no difference in balance confidence scores between groups across testing times F (2, 28) = 0.503, p > 0.05. Although the training group improved mobility through the obstacle course, there were no differences between the groups in balance confidence.

  8. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions

    PubMed Central

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents’ opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a “left clique” and a “right clique”. In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties. PMID:27716815

  9. A threshold theory account of psychometric functions with response confidence under the balance condition.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Yung-Fong; Doble, Christopher W

    2015-02-01

    The study of thresholds for discriminability has been of long-standing interest in psychophysics. While threshold theories embrace the concept of discrete-state thresholds, signal detection theory discounts such a concept. In this paper we concern ourselves with the concept of thresholds from the discrete-state modelling viewpoint. In doing so, we find it necessary to clarify some fundamental issues germane to the psychometric function (PF), which is customarily constructed using psychophysical methods with a binary-response format. We challenge this response format and argue that response confidence also plays an important role in the construction of PFs, and thus should have some impact on threshold estimation. We motivate the discussion by adopting a three-state threshold theory for response confidence proposed by Krantz (1969, Psychol. Rev., 76, 308-324), which is a modification of Luce's (1963, Psychol. Rev., 70, 61-79) low-threshold theory. In particular, we discuss the case in which the practice of averaging over order (or position) is enforced in data collection. Finally, we illustrate the fit of the Luce-Krantz model to data from a line-discrimination task with response confidence.

  10. Analysis of confidence in continental-scale groundwater recharge estimates for Africa using a distributed water balance model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, Jonathan; Mansour, Majdi; Bonsor, Helen; Pachocka, Magdalena; Wang, Lei; MacDonald, Alan; Macdonald, David; Bloomfield, John

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing need for improved access to reliable water in Africa as population and food production increases. Currently approximately 300 million people do not have access to a secure source of safe drinking water. To meet these current and future demands, groundwater will need to be increasingly abstracted; groundwater is more reliable than surface water sources due to its relatively long response time to meteorological stresses and therefore is likely to be a more secure water resource in a more variable climate. Recent studies also quantified the volumes of groundwater potentially available which suggest that, if exploited, groundwater could help to meet the demand for fresh water. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how these resources may respond in the future due to changes in groundwater recharge and abstraction. Understanding and quantifying groundwater recharge is vital as it forms a primary indicator of the sustainability of underlying groundwater resources. Computational hydrological models provide a means to do this, but the complexity of recharge processes in Africa mean that these simulations are often highly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate our confidence in simulating groundwater recharge over Africa based on a sensitivity analysis using a distributed hydrological model developed by the British Geological Survey, ZOODRM. The model includes land surface, canopy, river, soil and groundwater components. Each component is able to exchange water and as such, forms a distributed water balance of Africa. The components have been parameterised using available spatial datasets of African vegetation, land-use, soil and hydrogeology while the remaining parameters have been estimated by calibrating the model to available river flow data. Continental-scale gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets, based on remotely sensed and ground observations, have been used to force the model. Following calibration, the

  11. Wii Fit balance training or progressive balance training in patients with chronic stroke: a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Yatar, Gozde Iyigun; Yildirim, Sibel Aksu

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to compare the effects of Wii Fit balance training (WBT) and progressive balance training (PBT) approaches on balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living in chronic stroke patients. [Subjects] A total of 30 patients were randomized into the WBT (n=15) and PBT (n=15) groups. [Methods] All of the subjects received exercise training based on a neurodevelopemental approach in addition to either Wii Fit or progressive balance training for total of 1 hour a day, 3 days per week for 4 weeks. Primary measurements were static balance function measured with a Wii Balance Board and dynamic balance function assessed with the Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up and Go test, Dynamic Gait Index, and Functional Reach Test. Secondary measures were balance confidence assessed with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale and activities of daily living evaluated with the Frenchay Activity Index. [Results] There was not remarkable difference between the two treatments in dynamic balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living. [Conclusion] Although both of the approaches were found to be effective in improving the balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living, neither of them were more preferable than the other for the treatment of balance in patients with chronic stroke. PMID:25995576

  12. BALANCE

    DOEpatents

    Carmichael, H.

    1953-01-01

    A torsional-type analytical balance designed to arrive at its equilibrium point more quickly than previous balances is described. In order to prevent external heat sources creating air currents inside the balance casing that would reiard the attainment of equilibrium conditions, a relatively thick casing shaped as an inverted U is placed over the load support arms and the balance beam. This casing is of a metal of good thernnal conductivity characteristics, such as copper or aluminum, in order that heat applied to one portion of the balance is quickly conducted to all other sensitive areas, thus effectively preventing the fornnation of air currents caused by unequal heating of the balance.

  13. Confidence building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roederer, Juan G.

    Many conferences are being held on confidence building in many countries. Usually they are organized and attended by political scientists and science policy specialists. A remarkable exception, in which the main brainstorming was done by “grass roots” geophysicists, nuclear physicists, engineers and ecologists, was a meeting in July at St. John's College in Santa Fe, N. Mex.The aim of the conference Technology-Based Confidence Building: Energy and Environment was to survey programs of international cooperation in pertinent areas of mutual concern to all nations and to identify new initiatives that could contribute to enhanced international stability, with emphasis on cooperation between the U.S. and U.S.S.R.

  14. Confidence rating for eutrophication assessments.

    PubMed

    Brockmann, Uwe H; Topcu, Dilek H

    2014-05-15

    Confidence of monitoring data is dependent on their variability and representativeness of sampling in space and time. Whereas variability can be assessed as statistical confidence limits, representative sampling is related to equidistant sampling, considering gradients or changing rates at sampling gaps. By the proposed method both aspects are combined, resulting in balanced results for examples of total nitrogen concentrations in the German Bight/North Sea. For assessing sampling representativeness surface areas, vertical profiles and time periods are divided into regular sections for which individually the representativeness is calculated. The sums correspond to the overall representativeness of sampling in the defined area/time period. Effects of not sampled sections are estimated along parallel rows by reducing their confidence, considering their distances to next sampled sections and the interrupted gradients/changing rates. Confidence rating of time sections is based on maximum differences of sampling rates at regular time steps and related means of concentrations.

  15. Confidant Relations in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  16. Confidant Relations in Italy.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-02-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  17. Confidence Trick: The Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2014-01-01

    The frequent misinterpretation of the nature of confidence intervals by students has been well documented. This article examines the problem as an aspect of the learning of mathematical definitions and considers the tension between parroting mathematically rigorous, but essentially uninternalized, statements on the one hand and expressing…

  18. Understanding Academic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2006-01-01

    This paper draws on the psychological theories of self-efficacy and the self-concept to understand students' self-confidence in academic study in higher education as measured by the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC). In doing this, expectancy-value theory and self-efficacy theory are considered and contrasted with self-concept and…

  19. Responsibility and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Austin, Zubin

    2013-01-01

    Background: Despite the changing role of the pharmacist in patient-centred practice, pharmacists anecdotally reported little confidence in their clinical decision-making skills and do not feel responsible for their patients. Observational findings have suggested these trends within the profession, but there is a paucity of evidence to explain why. We conducted an exploratory study with an objective to identify reasons for the lack of responsibility and/or confidence in various pharmacy practice settings. Methods: Pharmacist interviews were conducted via written response, face-to-face or telephone. Seven questions were asked on the topic of responsibility and confidence as it applies to pharmacy practice and how pharmacists think these themes differ in medicine. Interview transcripts were analyzed and divided by common theme. Quotations to support these themes are presented. Results: Twenty-nine pharmacists were asked to participate, and 18 responded (62% response rate). From these interviews, 6 themes were identified as barriers to confidence and responsibility: hierarchy of the medical system, role definitions, evolution of responsibility, ownership of decisions for confidence building, quality and consequences of mentorship and personality traits upon admission. Discussion: We identified 6 potential barriers to the development of pharmacists’ self-confidence and responsibility. These findings have practical applicability for educational research, future curriculum changes, experiential learning structure and pharmacy practice. Due to bias and the limitations of this form of exploratory research and small sample size, evidence should be interpreted cautiously. Conclusion: Pharmacists feel neither responsible nor confident for their clinical decisions due to social, educational, experiential and personal reasons. Can Pharm J 2013;146:155-161. PMID:23795200

  20. Confidence Calculation with AMV+

    SciTech Connect

    Fossum, A.F.

    1999-02-19

    The iterative advanced mean value algorithm (AMV+), introduced nearly ten years ago, is now widely used as a cost-effective probabilistic structural analysis tool when the use of sampling methods is cost prohibitive (Wu et al., 1990). The need to establish confidence bounds on calculated probabilities arises because of the presence of uncertainties in measured means and variances of input random variables. In this paper an algorithm is proposed that makes use of the AMV+ procedure and analytically derived probability sensitivities to determine confidence bounds on calculated probabilities.

  1. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an…

  2. Predicting Systemic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falke, Stephanie Inez

    2009-01-01

    Using a mixed method approach, this study explored which educational factors predicted systemic confidence in master's level marital and family therapy (MFT) students, and whether or not the impact of these factors was influenced by student beliefs and their perception of their supervisor's beliefs about the value of systemic practice. One hundred…

  3. SystemConfidence

    SciTech Connect

    Josh Lothian, Jeff Kuehn

    2012-09-25

    SystemConfidence is a benchmark developed at ORNL which can measure statistical variation in which the user can plot. The portions of the code which manage the collection of the histograms and computing statistics on the histograms were designed with the intent that we could use these functions in other codes.

  4. European security, nuclear weapons and public confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Gutteridge, W.

    1982-01-01

    This book presents papers on nuclear arms control in Europe. Topics considered include political aspects, the balance of power, nuclear disarmament in Europe, the implications of new conventional technologies, the neutron bomb, theater nuclear weapons, arms control in Northern Europe, naval confidence-building measures in the Baltic, the strategic balance in the Arctic Ocean, Arctic resources, threats to European stability, developments in South Africa, economic cooperation in Europe, European collaboration in science and technology after Helsinki, European cooperation in the area of electric power, and economic cooperation as a factor for the development of European security and cooperation.

  5. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  6. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  7. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with. PMID:23227579

  8. Improved investor confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, J.

    1995-10-01

    Results of a financial ranking survey of power projects show reasonably strong activity when compared to previous surveys. Perhaps the most notable trend is the continued increase in the number of international deals being reported. Nearly 62 percent of the transactions reported were for non-US projects. This increase will likely expand with time as developers and lenders gain confidence in certain regions. For the remainder of 1995 and into 1996 it is likely that financial activity will continue at a steady pace. A number of projects in various markets are poised to reach financial close relatively soon. Developers, investment bankers, and governments are all gaining experience and becoming more comfortable with the process.

  9. Confidence through consensus: a neural mechanism for uncertainty monitoring.

    PubMed

    Paz, Luciano; Insabato, Andrea; Zylberberg, Ariel; Deco, Gustavo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-02-24

    Models that integrate sensory evidence to a threshold can explain task accuracy, response times and confidence, yet it is still unclear how confidence is encoded in the brain. Classic models assume that confidence is encoded in some form of balance between the evidence integrated in favor and against the selected option. However, recent experiments that measure the sensory evidence's influence on choice and confidence contradict these classic models. We propose that the decision is taken by many loosely coupled modules each of which represent a stochastic sample of the sensory evidence integral. Confidence is then encoded in the dispersion between modules. We show that our proposal can account for the well established relations between confidence, and stimuli discriminability and reaction times, as well as the fluctuations influence on choice and confidence.

  10. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  11. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  12. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  13. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention.

  14. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention. PMID:21392352

  15. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  16. Measuring Vaccine Confidence: Introducing a Global Vaccine Confidence Index

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Heidi J; Schulz, William S; Tucker, Joseph D; Smith, David M D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Public confidence in vaccination is vital to the success of immunisation programmes worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of vaccine confidence is therefore of great importance for global public health. Few published studies permit global comparisons of vaccination sentiments and behaviours against a common metric. This article presents the findings of a multi-country survey of confidence in vaccines and immunisation programmes in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK) – these being the first results of a larger project to map vaccine confidence globally. Methods. Data were collected from a sample of the general population and from those with children under 5 years old against a core set of confidence questions. All surveys were conducted in the relevant local-language in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the UK. We examine confidence in immunisation programmes as compared to confidence in other government health services, the relationships between confidence in the system and levels of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, ultimate vaccination decisions, and their variation based on country contexts and demographic factors. Results. The numbers of respondents by country were: Georgia (n=1000); India (n=1259); Pakistan (n=2609); UK (n=2055); Nigerian households (n=12554); and Nigerian health providers (n=1272). The UK respondents with children under five years of age were more likely to hesitate to vaccinate, compared to other countries. Confidence in immunisation programmes was more closely associated with confidence in the broader health system in the UK (Spearman’s ρ=0.5990), compared to Nigeria (ρ=0.5477), Pakistan (ρ=0.4491), and India (ρ=0.4240), all of which ranked confidence in immunisation programmes higher than confidence in the broader health system. Georgia had the highest rate of vaccine refusals (6 %) among those who reported initial hesitation. In all other countries surveyed most

  17. Confidant Relations of the Aged.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tigges, Leann M.; And Others

    The confidant relationship is a qualitatively distinct dimension of the emotional support system of the aged, yet the composition of the confidant network has been largely neglected in research on aging. Persons (N=940) 60 years of age and older were interviewed about their socio-environmental setting. From the enumeration of their relatives,…

  18. Teaching Confidence Intervals Using Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagtvedt, Reidar; Jones, Gregory Todd; Jones, Kari

    2008-01-01

    Confidence intervals are difficult to teach, in part because most students appear to believe they understand how to interpret them intuitively. They rarely do. To help them abandon their misconception and achieve understanding, we have developed a simulation tool that encourages experimentation with multiple confidence intervals derived from the…

  19. Performance of High School Adolescents on Functional Gait and Balance Measures

    PubMed Central

    Alsalaheen, Bara A.; Whitney, Susan L.; Marchetti, Gregory F.; Furman, Joseph M.; Kontos, Anthony P.; Collins, Michael W.; Sparto, Patrick J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose To describe the performance of high school adolescents during common functional gait and balance measures used in vestibular physical therapy. Methods A cross-sectional study of 91 participants determined their performance on the Activities - specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale, Dynamic Gait Index (DGI), Functional Gait Assessment (FGA), Timed “Up & Go” (TUG), Five Times Sit to Stand (FTSTS) test, tests of gait speed (GS) and the Balance Error Scoring System. In a subset of this sample, GS, TUG, and the FTSTS were repeated twice to examine test-retest reliability. Results The measures of GS, TUG, and FTSTS were normally distributed. The ABC, DGI, and FGA exhibited a ceiling effect. The timed measures exhibited moderate to good reliability. Conclusions These performance scores may provide end points for discharge from vestibular physical therapy. However, clinicians should be aware of the ceiling effect exhibited by some measures. PMID:24675118

  20. Effects of a Task-specific Exercise Program on Balance, Mobility, and Muscle Strength in the Elderly

    PubMed Central

    Seo, Hyung-Seok; Lee, Jung-Ho; Park, Young-Han

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a task-specific exercise program based on motor learning on balance ability and strength of the lower extremity in the elderly with/without falling experiences. [Subjects and Methods] Individuals who had experiences of falling over 2 times within the past 6 months were included in the falling group. The task-specific exercise program consisted of 3 stages (weeks 1–2, 3–4, and 5–6) and was conducted according to the level of difficulty in this study. [Results] The scores of the Korean version of the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale and Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment were significantly changed in both the falling group and non-falling group after the task-specific exercise program. In comparisons between the falling group and non-falling group, there were also significant differences in the Korean version of the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale and muscle strength of the semitendinosus and gastrocnemius. [Conclusion] The task-specific exercise program has a positive effect on balance ability and muscle strength related to falls in the elderly. PMID:25435679

  1. Confidence intervals for ATR performance metrics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ross, Timothy D.

    2001-08-01

    This paper describes confidence interval (CI) estimators (CIEs) for the metrics used to assess sensor exploitation algorithm (or ATR) performance. For the discrete distributions, small sample sizes and extreme outcomes encountered within ATR testing, the commonly used CIEs have limited accuracy. This paper makes available CIEs that are accurate over all conditions of interest to the ATR community. The approach is to search for CIs using an integration of the Bayesian posterior (IBP) to measure alpha (chance of the CI not containing the true value). The CIEs provided include proportion estimates based on Binomial distributions and rate estimates based on Poisson distributions. One or two-sided CIs may be selected. For two-sided CIEs, either minimal length, balanced tail probabilities, or balanced width may be selected. The CIEs' accuracies are reported based on a Monte Carlo validated integration of the posterior probability distribution and compared to the Normal approximation and `exact' (Clopper- Pearson) methods. While the IBP methods are accurate throughout, the conventional methods may realize alphas with substantial error (up to 50%). This translates to 10 to 15% error in the CI widths or to requiring 10 to 15% more samples for a given confidence level.

  2. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... version of this page please turn Javascript on. Balance Problems About Balance Problems Have you ever felt dizzy, lightheaded, or ... dizziness problem during the past year. Why Good Balance is Important Having good balance means being able ...

  3. Relationship Between Cognitive Assessment and Balance Measures in Adolescents Referred for Vestibular Physical Therapy After Concussion

    PubMed Central

    Alsalaheen, Bara A.; Whitney, Susan L.; Marchetti, Gregory F.; Furman, Joseph M.; Kontos, Anthony P.; Collins, Michael W.; Sparto, Patrick J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between cognitive and balance performance in adolescents with concussion. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Tertiary. Patients Sixty patients. Interventions Correlation analyses were performed to describe the relationship between symptoms, cognitive measure, and balance measure at the time of initiation of vestibular physical therapy. Main Outcome Measures Cognitive performance was assessed using the Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT). The dizziness and balance function measures included dizziness severity rating, Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Functional Gait Assessment, gait speed, Timed “UP and GO,” Five Times Sit to Stand, and Sensory Organization Test (SOT). To account for multiple comparisons, the False Discovery Rate method was used. Results Performance measures of balance were significantly correlated with cognitive measures. Greater total symptom scores were related to greater impairment in the ABC and DHI (r = 0.35-0.39, P ≤ 0.008) and worse performance in condition 2 of the SOT (r = −0.48, P = 0.004). Among the ImPACT composite scores, lower memory scores were correlated with impaired balance performance measures (r = 0.37-0.59, P ≤ 0.012). Lower visual memory was also correlated with worse ABC scores. Conclusions The significant relationships reported between the cognitive performance scores and balance measures may reflect that similar levels of functioning exist across domains in individuals with protracted recovery who receive vestibular physical therapy. PMID:25706663

  4. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  5. Musculoskeletal Strength, Balance Performance, and Self-Efficacy in Elderly Ving Tsun Chinese Martial Art Practitioners: Implications for Fall Prevention

    PubMed Central

    Fong, Shirley S. M.; Ng, Shamay S. M.; Liu, Karen P. Y.; Pang, Marco Y. C.; Lee, H. W.; Chung, Joanne W. Y.; Lam, Priscillia L.; Guo, X.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. To (1) compare the bone strength, lower limb muscular strength, functional balance performance, and balance self-efficacy between Ving Tsun (VT) martial art practitioners and nonpractitioners and (2) identify the associations between lower limb muscular strength, functional balance performance, and balance self-efficacy among the VT-trained participants. Methods. Thirty-five VT practitioners (mean age ± SD = 62.7 ± 13.3 years) and 49 nonpractitioners (mean age ± SD = 65.9 ± 10.5 years) participated in the study. The bone strength of the distal radius, lower limb muscular strength, functional balance performance, and balance self-efficacy were assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer, the five times sit-to-stand test (FTSTS), the Berg balance scale (BBS), and the Chinese version of the activities-specific balance confidence scale, respectively. A multivariate analysis of covariance was performed to compare all the outcome variables between the two groups. Results. Elderly VT practitioners had higher radial bone strength on the dominant side (P < 0.05), greater lower limb muscular strength (P = 0.001), better functional balance performance (P = 0.003), and greater balance confidence (P < 0.001) than the nonpractitioners. Additionally, only the FTSTS time revealed a significant association with the BBS score (r = −0.575,  P = 0.013). Conclusions. VT may be a suitable health-maintenance exercise for the elderly. Our findings may inspire the development of VT fall-prevention exercises for the community-dwelling healthy elderly. PMID:25530782

  6. Musculoskeletal strength, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly ving tsun chinese martial art practitioners: implications for fall prevention.

    PubMed

    Fong, Shirley S M; Ng, Shamay S M; Liu, Karen P Y; Pang, Marco Y C; Lee, H W; Chung, Joanne W Y; Lam, Priscillia L; Guo, X

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. To (1) compare the bone strength, lower limb muscular strength, functional balance performance, and balance self-efficacy between Ving Tsun (VT) martial art practitioners and nonpractitioners and (2) identify the associations between lower limb muscular strength, functional balance performance, and balance self-efficacy among the VT-trained participants. Methods. Thirty-five VT practitioners (mean age ± SD = 62.7 ± 13.3 years) and 49 nonpractitioners (mean age ± SD = 65.9 ± 10.5 years) participated in the study. The bone strength of the distal radius, lower limb muscular strength, functional balance performance, and balance self-efficacy were assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer, the five times sit-to-stand test (FTSTS), the Berg balance scale (BBS), and the Chinese version of the activities-specific balance confidence scale, respectively. A multivariate analysis of covariance was performed to compare all the outcome variables between the two groups. Results. Elderly VT practitioners had higher radial bone strength on the dominant side (P < 0.05), greater lower limb muscular strength (P = 0.001), better functional balance performance (P = 0.003), and greater balance confidence (P < 0.001) than the nonpractitioners. Additionally, only the FTSTS time revealed a significant association with the BBS score (r = -0.575,  P = 0.013). Conclusions. VT may be a suitable health-maintenance exercise for the elderly. Our findings may inspire the development of VT fall-prevention exercises for the community-dwelling healthy elderly.

  7. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... our e-newsletter! Aging & Health A to Z Balance Problems Basic Facts & Information What are Balance Problems? Having good balance means being able to ... Only then can you “keep your balance.” Why Balance is Important Your feelings of dizziness may last ...

  8. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... often, it could be a sign of a balance problem. Balance problems can make you feel unsteady or as ... fall-related injuries, such as hip fracture. Some balance problems are due to problems in the inner ...

  9. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-01

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines. PMID:21664679

  10. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-01

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines.

  11. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  12. Domains and correlates of clinical balance impairment associated with Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Jesse V; Boyd, James T; Hogarth, Penelope; Horak, Fay B

    2015-03-01

    This study sought to (a) determine the domains of clinical balance impairments associated with Huntington's disease (HD), and (b) evaluate associations between balance test scores and other disease-related impairments. Eighteen subjects with genetically definite HD and 17 age-matched control subjects were evaluated on the Mini-BESTest for their clinical balance impairments as well as the Unified HD Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor and total functional capacity scales, Activity-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale-short form, Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Results showed that subjects with HD exhibited significantly lower total Mini-BESTest scores than subjects without HD (mean (95% CI)=76 (64-87)% with HD, 98 (96-99)% without HD; p=0.0011). Mini-BESTest item scores were significantly lower for subjects with HD on one-leg stance, postural responses, standing with eyes closed on foam, and dual-task timed up-and-go. Mini-BESTest scores significantly correlated with UHDRS motor (r(2)=0.68; p=0.00003) and total functional capacity (r(2)=0.75; p=0.000006) scores as well as with scores on the ABC short form (r(2)=0.45; p=0.0024), SDMT (r(2)=0.42; p=0.0036), and MoCA (r(2)=0.23; p=0.046) assessments. This study, therefore, demonstrates that balance impairments associated with HD span domains of anticipatory postural adjustments, postural responses, stance in challenging sensory conditions, and gait. Although preliminary, clinical balance impairment appears to be an efficient proxy evaluation of multiple HD-related factors due to associations with functional capacity, other motor impairments, balance confidence, and cognitive abilities. PMID:25797790

  13. Postural deformities: potential morbidities to cause balance problems in patients with ankylosing spondylitis?

    PubMed Central

    Çınar, Ece; Akkoç, Yeşim; Karapolat, Hale; Durusoy, Raika; Keser, Gökhan

    2016-01-01

    Objective This study aimed to assess the impact of postural deformities caused by ankylosing spondylitis (AS) on balance problems. Material and Methods This study included 29 patients with AS and 21 healthy controls. For assessing exercise capacity and dynamic balance, timed up and go test, five times sit-to-stand test, gait speed, and 6-min walk test were performed. Romberg tests were used to evaluate static balance and proprioception, whereas Dynamic Gait Index (DGI), Functional Gait Assessment (FGA), Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Activity Specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), and functional reach test were used to assess dynamic balance and the risk of falling. Using Bath Ankylosing Spondylitis Metrology Index (BASMI) scores, patients with AS were divided into two groups: those with scores 0–4 were assigned to subgroup AS1, and those with scores 5–10 were assigned to subgroup AS2. Results In the whole group of patients with AS, five times sit-to-stand test, tandem Romberg test with eyes closed, and BBS and ABC scores were significantly worse than the healthy controls (p<0.05). In the AS2 subgroup having more severe and advanced disease, five additional parameters, including timed up and go test, 6-min walk test, functional reach test, FGA, and DHI scores were also significantly worse than the healthy controls (p<0.05). Comparing the two subgroups with each other, only BBS scores were significantly worse in the AS2 subgroup than in the AS1 subgroup. Conclusion Although in clinical practice, poor balance is not a common problem in AS, possibly because of compensatory mechanisms, patients with AS have poorer static and dynamic balance than healthy subjects. Significantly worse BBS scores in the AS2 subgroup than in the AS1 subgroup may suggest the presence of more dynamic balance problems in advanced disease; however, future studies comprising larger samples are necessary to confirm this assumption.

  14. History of falls, gait, balance, and fall risks in older cancer survivors living in the community

    PubMed Central

    Huang, Min H; Shilling, Tracy; Miller, Kara A; Smith, Kristin; LaVictoire, Kayle

    2015-01-01

    Older cancer survivors may be predisposed to falls because cancer-related sequelae affect virtually all body systems. The use of a history of falls, gait speed, and balance tests to assess fall risks remains to be investigated in this population. This study examined the relationship of previous falls, gait, and balance with falls in community-dwelling older cancer survivors. At the baseline, demographics, health information, and the history of falls in the past year were obtained through interviewing. Participants performed tests including gait speed, Balance Evaluation Systems Test, and short-version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Falls were tracked by mailing of monthly reports for 6 months. A “faller” was a person with ≥1 fall during follow-up. Univariate analyses, including independent sample t-tests and Fisher’s exact tests, compared baseline demographics, gait speed, and balance between fallers and non-fallers. For univariate analyses, Bonferroni correction was applied for multiple comparisons. Baseline variables with P<0.15 were included in a forward logistic regression model to identify factors predictive of falls with age as covariate. Sensitivity and specificity of each predictor of falls in the model were calculated. Significance level for the regression analysis was P<0.05. During follow-up, 59% of participants had one or more falls. Baseline demographics, health information, history of falls, gaits speed, and balance tests did not differ significantly between fallers and non-fallers. Forward logistic regression revealed that a history of falls was a significant predictor of falls in the final model (odds ratio =6.81; 95% confidence interval =1.594–29.074) (P<0.05). Sensitivity and specificity for correctly identifying a faller using the positive history of falls were 74% and 69%, respectively. Current findings suggested that for community-dwelling older cancer survivors with mixed diagnoses, asking about the history of falls

  15. History of falls, gait, balance, and fall risks in older cancer survivors living in the community.

    PubMed

    Huang, Min H; Shilling, Tracy; Miller, Kara A; Smith, Kristin; LaVictoire, Kayle

    2015-01-01

    Older cancer survivors may be predisposed to falls because cancer-related sequelae affect virtually all body systems. The use of a history of falls, gait speed, and balance tests to assess fall risks remains to be investigated in this population. This study examined the relationship of previous falls, gait, and balance with falls in community-dwelling older cancer survivors. At the baseline, demographics, health information, and the history of falls in the past year were obtained through interviewing. Participants performed tests including gait speed, Balance Evaluation Systems Test, and short-version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Falls were tracked by mailing of monthly reports for 6 months. A "faller" was a person with ≥1 fall during follow-up. Univariate analyses, including independent sample t-tests and Fisher's exact tests, compared baseline demographics, gait speed, and balance between fallers and non-fallers. For univariate analyses, Bonferroni correction was applied for multiple comparisons. Baseline variables with P<0.15 were included in a forward logistic regression model to identify factors predictive of falls with age as covariate. Sensitivity and specificity of each predictor of falls in the model were calculated. Significance level for the regression analysis was P<0.05. During follow-up, 59% of participants had one or more falls. Baseline demographics, health information, history of falls, gaits speed, and balance tests did not differ significantly between fallers and non-fallers. Forward logistic regression revealed that a history of falls was a significant predictor of falls in the final model (odds ratio =6.81; 95% confidence interval =1.594-29.074) (P<0.05). Sensitivity and specificity for correctly identifying a faller using the positive history of falls were 74% and 69%, respectively. Current findings suggested that for community-dwelling older cancer survivors with mixed diagnoses, asking about the history of falls may

  16. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-01-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  17. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-04-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  18. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G.; Luginbuhl, D.R.

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  19. A confidence paradigm for classification systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Leap, Nathan J.; Bauer, Kenneth W., Jr.

    2008-04-01

    There is no universally accepted methodology to determine how much confidence one should have in a classifier output. This research proposes a framework to determine the level of confidence in an indication from a classifier system where the output is a measurement value. There are two types of confidence developed in this paper. The first is confidence in a classification system or classifier and is denoted classifier confidence. The second is the confidence in the output of a classification system or classifier. In this paradigm, we posit that the confidence in the output of a classifier should be, on average, equal to the confidence in the classifier as a whole (i.e., classifier confidence). The amount of confidence in a given classifier is estimated using multiattribute preference theory and forms the foundation for a quadratic confidence function that is applied to posterior probability estimates. Classifier confidence is currently determined based upon individual measurable value functions for classification accuracy, average entropy, and sample size, and the form of the overall measurable value function is multilinear based upon the assumption of weak difference independence. Using classifier confidence, a quadratic function is trained to be the confidence function which inputs a posterior probability and outputs the confidence in a given indication. In this paradigm, confidence is not equal to the posterior probability estimate but is related to it. This confidence measure is a direct link between traditional decision analysis techniques and traditional pattern recognition techniques. This methodology is applied to two real world data sets, and results show the sort of behavior that would be expected from a rational confidence measure.

  20. Effectiveness of balance exercises in the acute post-operative phase following total hip and knee arthroplasty: A randomized clinical trial

    PubMed Central

    Overend, Tom J; Spaulding, Sandi J; Zecevic, Aleksandra; Kramer, John F

    2015-01-01

    Objectives: To determine the effectiveness of balance exercises in the acute post-operative phase following total hip arthroplasty or total knee arthroplasty. Methods: Patients who had total hip arthroplasty (n = 30) or total knee arthroplasty (n = 33) were seen in their residence 1–2 times per week for 5 weeks. At the first post-operative home visit, patients were randomly assigned to either typical (TE, n = 33) or typical plus balance (TE + B, n = 30) exercise groups. The TE group completed seven typical surgery-specific joint range-of-motion and muscle strengthening exercises, while the TE + B group completed the typical exercises plus three balance exercises. Patients were assessed before and 5 weeks after administering the rehabilitation program using four outcome measures: (1) the Berg Balance Scale, (2) the Timed Up and Go test, (3) the Western Ontario McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index, and (4) the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale. Results: Post-intervention scores for all four outcome measures were significantly improved (p < 0.01) over baseline scores. Patients who participated in the TE + B group demonstrated significantly greater improvement on the Berg Balance Scale and the Timed Up and Go tests (p < 0.01). Conclusion: Balance exercises added to a typical rehabilitation program resulted in significantly greater improvements in balance and functional mobility compared to typical exercises alone. PMID:26770765

  1. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    PubMed

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations. PMID:27391683

  2. Action-Specific Disruption of Perceptual Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Maniscalco, Brian; Ko, Yoshiaki; Amendi, Namema; Ro, Tony; Lau, Hakwan

    2015-01-01

    Theoretical models of perception assume that confidence is related to the quality or strength of sensory processing. Counter to this intuitive view, we showed in the present research that the motor system also contributes to judgments of perceptual confidence. In two experiments, we used transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) to manipulate response-specific representations in the premotor cortex, selectively disrupting postresponse confidence in visual discrimination judgments. Specifically, stimulation of the motor representation associated with the unchosen response reduced confidence in correct responses, thereby reducing metacognitive capacity without changing visual discrimination performance. Effects of TMS on confidence were observed when stimulation was applied both before and after the response occurred, which suggests that confidence depends on late-stage metacognitive processes. These results place constraints on models of perceptual confidence and metacognition by revealing that action-specific information in the premotor cortex contributes to perceptual confidence. PMID:25425059

  3. Effects of Ving Tsun Chinese martial art training on musculoskeletal health, balance performance, and self-efficacy in community-dwelling older adults

    PubMed Central

    Lip, Ryan W.T.; Fong, Shirley S.M.; Ng, Shamay S.M.; Liu, Karen P.Y.; Guo, X.

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Ving Tsun (VT) Chinese martial art training on radial bone strength, upper- and lower-limb muscular strength, shoulder joint mobility, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly participants. [Subjects and Methods] Twelve seniors voluntarily joined the VT training group, and twenty-seven seniors voluntarily joined the control group. The VT group received VT training for three months, while the control group received no training. The bone strength of the distal radius was assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer. Muscular strength in the limbs was evaluated using a Jamar handgrip dynamometer and the five times sit-to-stand test. Shoulder joint mobility was examined using a goniometer. Balance performance and self-efficacy were evaluated using the Berg Balance Scale and the Chinese version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, respectively. [Results] The results revealed a nonsignificant group-by-time interaction effect, group effect, and time effect for all outcome variables. However, general trends of maintenance or improvement in all outcome parameters were observed to a greater extent in the VT group than in the control group. [Conclusion] VT training might be a potential fall-prevention exercise that can be used to maintain general physique, balance, and confidence in the elderly population. A further randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm this postulation. PMID:25931704

  4. Effects of Ving Tsun Chinese martial art training on musculoskeletal health, balance performance, and self-efficacy in community-dwelling older adults.

    PubMed

    Lip, Ryan W T; Fong, Shirley S M; Ng, Shamay S M; Liu, Karen P Y; Guo, X

    2015-03-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Ving Tsun (VT) Chinese martial art training on radial bone strength, upper- and lower-limb muscular strength, shoulder joint mobility, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly participants. [Subjects and Methods] Twelve seniors voluntarily joined the VT training group, and twenty-seven seniors voluntarily joined the control group. The VT group received VT training for three months, while the control group received no training. The bone strength of the distal radius was assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer. Muscular strength in the limbs was evaluated using a Jamar handgrip dynamometer and the five times sit-to-stand test. Shoulder joint mobility was examined using a goniometer. Balance performance and self-efficacy were evaluated using the Berg Balance Scale and the Chinese version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, respectively. [Results] The results revealed a nonsignificant group-by-time interaction effect, group effect, and time effect for all outcome variables. However, general trends of maintenance or improvement in all outcome parameters were observed to a greater extent in the VT group than in the control group. [Conclusion] VT training might be a potential fall-prevention exercise that can be used to maintain general physique, balance, and confidence in the elderly population. A further randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm this postulation. PMID:25931704

  5. Effects of Ving Tsun Chinese martial art training on musculoskeletal health, balance performance, and self-efficacy in community-dwelling older adults.

    PubMed

    Lip, Ryan W T; Fong, Shirley S M; Ng, Shamay S M; Liu, Karen P Y; Guo, X

    2015-03-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Ving Tsun (VT) Chinese martial art training on radial bone strength, upper- and lower-limb muscular strength, shoulder joint mobility, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly participants. [Subjects and Methods] Twelve seniors voluntarily joined the VT training group, and twenty-seven seniors voluntarily joined the control group. The VT group received VT training for three months, while the control group received no training. The bone strength of the distal radius was assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer. Muscular strength in the limbs was evaluated using a Jamar handgrip dynamometer and the five times sit-to-stand test. Shoulder joint mobility was examined using a goniometer. Balance performance and self-efficacy were evaluated using the Berg Balance Scale and the Chinese version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, respectively. [Results] The results revealed a nonsignificant group-by-time interaction effect, group effect, and time effect for all outcome variables. However, general trends of maintenance or improvement in all outcome parameters were observed to a greater extent in the VT group than in the control group. [Conclusion] VT training might be a potential fall-prevention exercise that can be used to maintain general physique, balance, and confidence in the elderly population. A further randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm this postulation.

  6. Laser Balancing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1981-01-01

    Mechanical Technology, Incorporated developed a fully automatic laser machining process that allows more precise balancing removes metal faster, eliminates excess metal removal and other operator induced inaccuracies, and provides significant reduction in balancing time. Manufacturing costs are reduced as a result.

  7. Effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on balance, gait, and fear of falling in post-stroke inpatients.

    PubMed

    Jung, Younuk; Lee, Kyeongbong; Shin, Seonhae; Lee, Wanhee

    2015-06-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated the effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on balance, gait, and fear of falling in stroke patients. [Subjects] Twenty-five stroke patients were divided randomly into multifactorial fall prevention program group (n=15) and control treadmill group (n=10). [Methods] All interventions were applied for 30 min, five times per week, for five weeks. The fall prevention program included interventions based on the "Step Up to Stop Falls" initiative and educational interventions based on the Department of Health guidelines. For those in the treadmill group, the speed was increased gradually. The Korean falls efficacy scale and Korean activities-specific balance confidence scale were used to assess fear of falling. To assess balance and walking ability, the Korean performance-oriented mobility assessment scale and the 10-m and 6-minute walk tests were used. [Results] The fall prevention program interventions were found to be very effective at improving gait, balance, and fear of falling compared with the treadmill intervention and therefore seem appropriate for stroke patients. [Conclusion] A multifactorial fall prevention program is effective at improving balance, gait ability, and fear of falling. It is a more specific and broad intervention for reducing falls among inpatients in facilities and hospitals.

  8. Effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on balance, gait, and fear of falling in post-stroke inpatients

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Younuk; Lee, Kyeongbong; Shin, Seonhae; Lee, Wanhee

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated the effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on balance, gait, and fear of falling in stroke patients. [Subjects] Twenty-five stroke patients were divided randomly into multifactorial fall prevention program group (n=15) and control treadmill group (n=10). [Methods] All interventions were applied for 30 min, five times per week, for five weeks. The fall prevention program included interventions based on the “Step Up to Stop Falls” initiative and educational interventions based on the Department of Health guidelines. For those in the treadmill group, the speed was increased gradually. The Korean falls efficacy scale and Korean activities-specific balance confidence scale were used to assess fear of falling. To assess balance and walking ability, the Korean performance-oriented mobility assessment scale and the 10-m and 6-minute walk tests were used. [Results] The fall prevention program interventions were found to be very effective at improving gait, balance, and fear of falling compared with the treadmill intervention and therefore seem appropriate for stroke patients. [Conclusion] A multifactorial fall prevention program is effective at improving balance, gait ability, and fear of falling. It is a more specific and broad intervention for reducing falls among inpatients in facilities and hospitals. PMID:26180337

  9. Confidence in Parenting: Is Parent Education Working?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanberry, J. Phillip; Stanberry, Anne M.

    This study examined parents' feelings of confidence in their parenting ability among 56 individuals enrolled in 5 parent education programs in Mississippi, hypothesizing that there would be significant correlations between personal authority in the family system and a parent's confidence in performing the various roles of parenting. Based on…

  10. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  11. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  12. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  13. Self-Confidence and Metacognitive Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kleitman, Sabina; Stankov, Lazar

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of the Self-confidence factor. In particular, we study the relationship between this factor and cognitive, metacognitive, and personality measures. Participants (N=296) were administered a battery of seven cognitive tests that assess three constructs: accuracy, speed, and confidence. Participants were also given the…

  14. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  15. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  16. Similarity and confidence in artificial grammar learning.

    PubMed

    Tunney, Richard J

    2010-01-01

    Three experiments examined the relationship between similarity ratings and confidence ratings in artificial grammar learning. In Experiment 1 participants rated the similarity of test items to study exemplars. Regression analyses revealed these to be related to some of the objective measures of similarity that have previously been implicated in categorization decisions. In Experiment 2 participants made grammaticality decisions and rated either their confidence in the accuracy of their decisions or the similarity of the test items to the study items. Regression analyses showed that the grammaticality decisions were predicted by the similarity ratings obtained in Experiment 1. Points on the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for the similarity and confidence ratings were closely matched. These data suggest that meta-cognitive judgments of confidence are predicated on structural knowledge of similarity. Experiment 3 confirmed this by showing that confidence ratings to median similarity probe items changed according to the similarity of preceding items.

  17. An informative confidence metric for ATR.

    SciTech Connect

    Bow, Wallace Johnston Jr.; Richards, John Alfred; Bray, Brian Kenworthy

    2003-03-01

    Automatic or assisted target recognition (ATR) is an important application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Most ATR researchers have focused on the core problem of declaration-that is, detection and identification of targets of interest within a SAR image. For ATR declarations to be of maximum value to an image analyst, however, it is essential that each declaration be accompanied by a reliability estimate or confidence metric. Unfortunately, the need for a clear and informative confidence metric for ATR has generally been overlooked or ignored. We propose a framework and methodology for evaluating the confidence in an ATR system's declarations and competing target hypotheses. Our proposed confidence metric is intuitive, informative, and applicable to a broad class of ATRs. We demonstrate that seemingly similar ATRs may differ fundamentally in the ability-or inability-to identify targets with high confidence.

  18. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Qtl Location

    PubMed Central

    Mangin, B.; Goffinet, B.; Rebai, A.

    1994-01-01

    We describe a method for constructing the confidence interval of the QTL location parameter. This method is developed in the local asymptotic framework, leading to a linear model at each position of the putative QTL. The idea is to construct a likelihood ratio test, using statistics whose asymptotic distribution does not depend on the nuisance parameters and in particular on the effect of the QTL. We show theoretical properties of the confidence interval built with this test, and compare it with the classical confidence interval using simulations. We show in particular, that our confidence interval has the correct probability of containing the true map location of the QTL, for almost all QTLs, whereas the classical confidence interval can be very biased for QTLs having small effect. PMID:7896108

  19. Balancing Acts

    MedlinePlus

    ... a new type of balance therapy using computerized, virtual reality. UPMC associate professor Susan Whitney, Ph.D., developed ... a virtual grocery store in the university's Medical Virtual Reality Center. Patients walk on a treadmill and safely ...

  20. Postural and Balance Disorders in Patients with Parkinson's Disease: A Prospective Open-Label Feasibility Study with Two Months of Action Observation Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Santamato, Andrea; Ranieri, Maurizio; Cinone, Nicoletta; Stuppiello, Lucia Anna; Valeno, Giovanni; De Sanctis, Jula Laura; Fortunato, Francesca; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Greco, Antonio; Seripa, Davide; Panza, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    Action observation treatment has been proposed as therapeutic option in rehabilitation of patients affected by Parkinson's disease (PD) to improve freezing of gait episodes. The purpose of this prospective open-label feasibility study was to evaluate the impact of 8-week action observation training (video-therapy) for the treatment of postural instability and balance impairment in PD patients. Fifteen PD patients aged under 80 years with scores of 1 to 3 on the Hoehn and Yahr staging and without evidence of freezing of gait were recruited. They underwent 24 sessions of video-therapy training based on carefully watching video clips on motor tasks linked to balance, subsequently performing the same observed movements. No statistically significant differences were observed in the identified outcome measures with the Berg Balance Scale and the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale after two months of follow-up. In the present study, a short course of action observation treatment seems to be not effective in reducing balance impairments and postural instability in patients affected by mild to moderate PD. Further studies with larger samples, longer follow-up period, and standardized protocols of action observation treatment are needed to investigate the effects of this rehabilitation technique in the management of postural and balance disorders of PD patients. PMID:26798551

  1. Active specific immunotherapy using the immune reaction of a low-dose irradiated tumor tissue. [Mice

    SciTech Connect

    Ogawa, Y.; Imanaka, K.; Ashida, C.; Takashima, H.; Imajo, Y.; Kimura, S.

    1983-04-01

    Active specific immunotherapy using the immune reaction of a low-dose irradiated tumor tissue was studied on the transplanted MM46 tumor of female C3H/He mice after radiotherapy. MM46 tumor cells were inoculated into the right hind paws of mice. On the 5th day, irradiation with the dose irradiated tumor tissue (2000 rad on the fifth day), were injected into the left hind paws of the tumor-bearing mice. Effectiveness of this active specific immunotherapy against tumor was evaluated by the regression of tumor and survival rate of mice. Tumor was markedly regressed and survival rate was significantly increased by the active specific immunitherapy.

  2. Inference by Eye: Pictures of Confidence Intervals and Thinking about Levels of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cumming, Geoff

    2007-01-01

    A picture of a 95% confidence interval (CI) implicitly contains pictures of CIs of all other levels of confidence, and information about the "p"-value for testing a null hypothesis. This article discusses pictures, taken from interactive software, that suggest several ways to think about the level of confidence of a CI, "p"-values, and what…

  3. Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Du, Yunfei

    This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

  4. Efficient Computation Of Confidence Intervals Of Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1992-01-01

    Study focuses on obtaining efficient algorithm for estimation of confidence intervals of ML estimates. Four algorithms selected to solve associated constrained optimization problem. Hybrid algorithms, following search and gradient approaches, prove best.

  5. Updating misconceptions: effects of age and confidence.

    PubMed

    Cyr, Andrée-Ann; Anderson, Nicole D

    2013-06-01

    Young adults are more likely to correct an initial higher confidence error than a lower confidence error (Butterfield & Metcalfe, 2001). This hypercorrection effect has never been investigated among older adults, although features of the standard paradigm (free recall, metacognitive judgments) and prior evidence of age-related error resolution deficits (see Clare & Jones, 2008) suggest that they may not show this effect. In Study 1, we used free recall and a 7-point confidence scale; in Study 2, we used multiple-choice questions, and participants indicated how many alternatives they had narrowed their options down to prior to answering. In both studies, younger and older adults showed a hypercorrection effect, and this effect was equivalent between groups in Study 2 when free recall and explicit confidence ratings were not required. These results are consistent with our previous work (Cyr & Anderson, 2012) showing that older adults can successfully resolve learning errors when the learning context provides sufficient support.

  6. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  7. Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.

    1991-01-01

    Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

  8. Confidence in leadership among the newly qualified.

    PubMed

    Bayliss-Pratt, Lisa; Morley, Mary; Bagley, Liz; Alderson, Steven

    2013-10-23

    The Francis report highlighted the importance of strong leadership from health professionals but it is unclear how prepared those who are newly qualified feel to take on a leadership role. We aimed to assess the confidence of newly qualified health professionals working in the West Midlands in the different competencies of the NHS Leadership Framework. Most respondents felt confident in their abilities to demonstrate personal qualities and work with others, but less so at managing or improving services or setting direction.

  9. Worse than enemies. The CEO's destructive confidant.

    PubMed

    Sulkowicz, Kerry J

    2004-02-01

    The CEO is often the most isolated and protected employee in the organization. Few leaders, even veteran CEOs, can do the job without talking to someone about their experiences, which is why most develop a close relationship with a trusted colleague, a confidant to whom they can tell their thoughts and fears. In his work with leaders, the author has found that many CEO-confidant relationships function very well. The confidants keep their leaders' best interests at heart. They derive their gratification vicariously, through the help they provide rather than through any personal gain, and they are usually quite aware that a person in their position can potentially abuse access to the CEO's innermost secrets. Unfortunately, almost as many confidants will end up hurting, undermining, or otherwise exploiting CEOs when the executives are at their most vulnerable. These confidants rarely make the headlines, but behind the scenes they do enormous damage to the CEO and to the organization as a whole. What's more, the leader is often the last one to know when or how the confidant relationship became toxic. The author has identified three types of destructive confidants. The reflector mirrors the CEO, constantly reassuring him that he is the "fairest CEO of them all." The insulator buffers the CEO from the organization, preventing critical information from getting in or out. And the usurper cunningly ingratiates himself with the CEO in a desperate bid for power. This article explores how the CEO-confidant relationship plays out with each type of adviser and suggests ways CEOs can avoid these destructive relationships.

  10. Balance System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    TherEx Inc.'s AT-1 Computerized Ataxiameter precisely evaluates posture and balance disturbances that commonly accompany neurological and musculoskeletal disorders. Complete system includes two-strain gauged footplates, signal conditioning circuitry, a computer monitor, printer and a stand-alone tiltable balance platform. AT-1 serves as assessment tool, treatment monitor, and rehabilitation training device. It allows clinician to document quantitatively the outcome of treatment and analyze data over time to develop outcome standards for several classifications of patients. It can evaluate specifically the effects of surgery, drug treatment, physical therapy or prosthetic devices.

  11. Sample Size for Confidence Interval of Covariate-Adjusted Mean Difference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2010-01-01

    This article provides a way to determine adequate sample size for the confidence interval of covariate-adjusted mean difference in randomized experiments. The standard error of adjusted mean difference depends on covariate variance and balance, which are two unknown quantities at the stage of planning sample size. If covariate observations are…

  12. [Assessment of balance in community dwelling older adults: reliability and validity of the German version of the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale].

    PubMed

    Schott, N

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate the German translation of the originally English Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale (FAB-D). The 10-item test battery is a performance-based measure that addresses the multiple dimensions of balance. The German FAB-D using a forward-backward procedure was examined by a sample of n = 96 community dwelling older adults (71,6 ± 7,5 years of age) who had reported no history of a fall in the previous 6 months (non-fallers) and 66 older adults (age 75,3 ± 7,3 years of age) who reported falling one or more times (recurrent fallers). The following internationally accepted instruments were used for validation: The Berg-Balance-Scale (BBS), the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC-D) scale, the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), the Trail-Making-Test (TMT), and motor tests (balance, strength, mobility). Explorative and confirmative factor analysis showed the best fit for a one dimensional solution. Cronbach's alpha of the German version of the FAB-D was 0.988. Test-retest reliability for the total score was 0.965 and ranged from 0.86-0.88 for individual items. The scales correlate with convergent measures assessing postural control and falls-related confidence (BBS, r = 0.685; Timed-Up-and-Go-Test, r = -0.632; ABC-D, r = 0.561). Criterion validity of the FAB-D was established by statistically significant correlations between the total scale, and the subdimensions of the SF-36 (physical 0.52, mental 0.38), the PASE (0.29), the TMT A (-0.30) and B (-0.41), the Chair Rising Test (0.59) and the 10 m walk (normal velocity -0.49; fast velocity -0.56). Significant differences in the FAB-D scores were found in older adults with (30,3 ± 8,6) and without falls (36,1 ± 4,2). Older adults with a recent fall history scored lower on the FAB-D than older adults without a recent fall history. To conclude, the German version of the FAB-D has properties analogous to the original English

  13. [Assessment of balance in community dwelling older adults: reliability and validity of the German version of the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale].

    PubMed

    Schott, N

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate the German translation of the originally English Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale (FAB-D). The 10-item test battery is a performance-based measure that addresses the multiple dimensions of balance. The German FAB-D using a forward-backward procedure was examined by a sample of n = 96 community dwelling older adults (71,6 ± 7,5 years of age) who had reported no history of a fall in the previous 6 months (non-fallers) and 66 older adults (age 75,3 ± 7,3 years of age) who reported falling one or more times (recurrent fallers). The following internationally accepted instruments were used for validation: The Berg-Balance-Scale (BBS), the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC-D) scale, the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), the Trail-Making-Test (TMT), and motor tests (balance, strength, mobility). Explorative and confirmative factor analysis showed the best fit for a one dimensional solution. Cronbach's alpha of the German version of the FAB-D was 0.988. Test-retest reliability for the total score was 0.965 and ranged from 0.86-0.88 for individual items. The scales correlate with convergent measures assessing postural control and falls-related confidence (BBS, r = 0.685; Timed-Up-and-Go-Test, r = -0.632; ABC-D, r = 0.561). Criterion validity of the FAB-D was established by statistically significant correlations between the total scale, and the subdimensions of the SF-36 (physical 0.52, mental 0.38), the PASE (0.29), the TMT A (-0.30) and B (-0.41), the Chair Rising Test (0.59) and the 10 m walk (normal velocity -0.49; fast velocity -0.56). Significant differences in the FAB-D scores were found in older adults with (30,3 ± 8,6) and without falls (36,1 ± 4,2). Older adults with a recent fall history scored lower on the FAB-D than older adults without a recent fall history. To conclude, the German version of the FAB-D has properties analogous to the original English

  14. Balancing Eggs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Allan

    2014-01-01

    Theory predicts that an egg-shaped body should rest in stable equilibrium when on its side, balance vertically in metastable equilibrium on its broad end and be completely unstable on its narrow end. A homogeneous solid egg made from wood, clay or plastic behaves in this way, but a real egg will not stand on either end. It is shown that this…

  15. Effect of Tai Chi Exercise Combined with Mental Imagery Theory in Improving Balance in a Diabetic and Elderly Population

    PubMed Central

    Alsubiheen, Abdulrahman; Petrofsky, Jerrold; Daher, Noha; Lohman, Everett; Balbas, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Background One of the effects of diabetes mellitus (DM), peripheral neuropathy, affects the sensation in the feet and can increase the chance of falling. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of 8 weeks of Tai Chi (TC) training combined with mental imagery (MI) on improving balance in people with diabetes and an age matched control group. Material/Methods Seventeen healthy subjects and 12 diabetic sedentary subjects ranging from 40–80 years of age were recruited. All subjects in both groups attended a Yang style of TC class using MI strategies, 2 sessions a week for 8 weeks. Each session was one hour long. Measures were taken using a balance platform test, an Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale, a one leg standing test (OLS), functional reach test (FRT) and hemoglobin A1C. These measures were taken twice, pre and post-study, for both groups. Results Both groups experienced significant improvements in ABC, OLS, FRT (P<0.01) after completing 8 weeks of TC exercise with no significant improvement between groups. Subjects using the balance platform test demonstrated improvement in balance in all different tasks with no significant change between groups. There was no significant change in HbA1C for the diabetic group. Conclusions All results showed an improvement in balance in the diabetic and the control groups; however, no significant difference between the groups was observed. Since the DM group had more problems with balance impairment at baseline than the control, the diabetic group showed the most benefit from the TC exercise. PMID:26454826

  16. Confidence in biopreparedness authorities among Finnish conscripts.

    PubMed

    Vartti, Anne-Marie; Aro, Arja R; Jormanainen, Vesa; Henriksson, Markus; Nikkari, Simo

    2010-08-01

    A large sample of Finnish military conscripts of the armored brigade were questioned on the extent to which they trusted the information given biopreparedness authorities (such as the police, military, health care, and public health institutions) and how confident they were in the authority's ability to protect the public during a potential infectious disease outbreak, from either natural or deliberate causes. Participants answered a written questionnaire during their initial health inspection in July 2007. From a total of 1,000 conscripts, 953 male conscripts returned the questionnaire. The mean sum scores for confidence in the information given to biopreparedness authorities and the media on natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range = 0-30) were 20.14 (SD = 7.79) and 20.12 (SD = 7.69), respectively. Mean sum scores for the respondents' confidence in the ability of the biopreparedness authorities to protect the public during natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range 0-25) were 16.04 (SD = 5.78) and 16.17 (SD = 5.89). Most respondents indicated that during a natural outbreak, they would have confidence in information provided by a health care institution such as central hospitals and primary health care centers, whereas in the case of bioterrorism, the respondents indicated that they would have confidence in the defense forces and central hospitals. PMID:20731266

  17. Chiropractic Interns' Perceptions of Stress and Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Spegman, Adele Mattinat; Herrin, Sean

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Psychological stress has been shown to influence learning and performance among medical and graduate students. Few studies have examined psychological stress in chiropractic students and interns. This preliminary study explored interns' perceptions around stress and confidence at the midpoint of professional training. Methods: This pilot study used a mixed-methods approach, combining rating scales and modified qualitative methods, to explore interns' lived experience. Eighty-eight interns provided ratings of stress and confidence and narrative responses to broad questions. Results: Participants reported multiple sources of stress; stress and confidence ratings were inversely related. Interns described stress as forced priorities, inadequate time, and perceptions of weak performance. Two themes, “convey respect” and “guide real-world learning,” describe faculty actions that minimized stress and promoted confidence. Conclusion: Chiropractic interns experience varying degrees of stress, which is managed with diverse strategies. The development of confidence appears to be influenced by the consistency and manner in which feedback is provided. Although faculty cannot control the amount or sources of stress, awareness of interns' perceptions can strengthen our effectiveness as educators. PMID:18483584

  18. Balance (or Vestibular) Rehabilitation

    MedlinePlus

    ... for the Public / Hearing and Balance Balance (or Vestibular) Rehabilitation Audiologic (hearing), balance, and medical diagnostic tests help indicate whether you are a candidate for vestibular (balance) rehabilitation. Vestibular rehabilitation is an individualized balance ...

  19. Adaptive Confidence Bands for Nonparametric Regression Functions

    PubMed Central

    Cai, T. Tony; Low, Mark; Ma, Zongming

    2014-01-01

    A new formulation for the construction of adaptive confidence bands in non-parametric function estimation problems is proposed. Confidence bands are constructed which have size that adapts to the smoothness of the function while guaranteeing that both the relative excess mass of the function lying outside the band and the measure of the set of points where the function lies outside the band are small. It is shown that the bands adapt over a maximum range of Lipschitz classes. The adaptive confidence band can be easily implemented in standard statistical software with wavelet support. Numerical performance of the procedure is investigated using both simulated and real datasets. The numerical results agree well with the theoretical analysis. The procedure can be easily modified and used for other nonparametric function estimation models. PMID:26269661

  20. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    PubMed

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  1. Balanced Can

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakerin, Said

    2013-12-01

    The ordinary 12-oz beverage cans in the figures below are not held up with any props or glue. The bottom of such cans is stepped at its circumference for better stacking. When this kind of can is tilted, as shown in Fig. 1, the outside corners of the step touch the surface beneath, providing an effective contact about 1 cm wide. Because the contact is relatively wide and the geometry is symmetrical, it is easy to balance an empty can by simply adding an appropriate amount of water so that the overall center of mass is located directly above the contact. In fact, any amount of water between about 40 and 210 mL will work. A computational animation of this trick by Sijia Liang and Bruce Atwood that shows center of mass as a function of amount of added water is available at http://demonstrations.wolfram.com. Once there, search "balancing can."

  2. Computation of confidence intervals for Poisson processes

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aguilar-Saavedra, J. A.

    2000-07-01

    We present an algorithm which allows a fast numerical computation of Feldman-Cousins confidence intervals for Poisson processes, even when the number of background events is relatively large. This algorithm incorporates an appropriate treatment of the singularities that arise as a consequence of the discreteness of the variable.

  3. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  4. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  5. The Confidence Factor in Liberal Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    With the US unemployment rate at 9 percent, it's rational for college students to lose confidence in the liberal arts and to opt for a vocational major. Or is it? There is a compelling economic case for the liberal arts. Against those who call for more professional training, liberal educators should concede nothing. However, they do have a…

  6. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  7. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  8. Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zou, Guang Yong

    2007-01-01

    Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

  9. Mixed Confidence Estimation for Iterative CT Reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Perlmutter, David S; Kim, Soo Mee; Kinahan, Paul E; Alessio, Adam M

    2016-09-01

    Dynamic (4D) CT imaging is used in a variety of applications, but the two major drawbacks of the technique are its increased radiation dose and longer reconstruction time. Here we present a statistical analysis of our previously proposed Mixed Confidence Estimation (MCE) method that addresses both these issues. This method, where framed iterative reconstruction is only performed on the dynamic regions of each frame while static regions are fixed across frames to a composite image, was proposed to reduce computation time. In this work, we generalize the previous method to describe any application where a portion of the image is known with higher confidence (static, composite, lower-frequency content, etc.) and a portion of the image is known with lower confidence (dynamic, targeted, etc). We show that by splitting the image space into higher and lower confidence components, MCE can lower the estimator variance in both regions compared to conventional reconstruction. We present a theoretical argument for this reduction in estimator variance and verify this argument with proof-of-principle simulations. We also propose a fast approximation of the variance of images reconstructed with MCE and confirm that this approximation is accurate compared to analytic calculations of and multi-realization image variance. This MCE method requires less computation time and provides reduced image variance for imaging scenarios where portions of the image are known with more certainty than others allowing for potentially reduced radiation dose and/or improved dynamic imaging. PMID:27008663

  10. Sources of Confidence in School Community Councils

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nygaard, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Three Utah middle level school community councils participated in a qualitative strengths-based process evaluation. Two of the school community councils were identified as exemplary, and the third was just beginning to function. One aspect of the evaluation was the source of school community council members' confidence. Each school had unique…

  11. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  12. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  13. Random selection as a confidence building tool

    SciTech Connect

    Macarthur, Duncan W; Hauck, Danielle; Langner, Diana; Thron, Jonathan; Smith, Morag; Williams, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Any verification measurement performed on potentially classified nuclear material must satisfy two seemingly contradictory constraints. First and foremost, no classified information can be released. At the same time, the monitoring party must have confidence in the veracity of the measurement. The first concern can be addressed by performing the measurements within the host facility using instruments under the host's control. Because the data output in this measurement scenario is also under host control, it is difficult for the monitoring party to have confidence in that data. One technique for addressing this difficulty is random selection. The concept of random selection can be thought of as four steps: (1) The host presents several 'identical' copies of a component or system to the monitor. (2) One (or more) of these copies is randomly chosen by the monitors for use in the measurement system. (3) Similarly, one or more is randomly chosen to be validated further at a later date in a monitor-controlled facility. (4) Because the two components or systems are identical, validation of the 'validation copy' is equivalent to validation of the measurement system. This procedure sounds straightforward, but effective application may be quite difficult. Although random selection is often viewed as a panacea for confidence building, the amount of confidence generated depends on the monitor's continuity of knowledge for both validation and measurement systems. In this presentation, we will discuss the random selection technique, as well as where and how this technique might be applied to generate maximum confidence. In addition, we will discuss the role of modular measurement-system design in facilitating random selection and describe a simple modular measurement system incorporating six small {sup 3}He neutron detectors and a single high-purity germanium gamma detector.

  14. Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1987-01-01

    An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

  15. A primer on confidence intervals in psychopharmacology.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Chittaranjan

    2015-02-01

    Research papers and research summaries frequently present results in the form of data accompanied by 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Not all students and clinicians know how to interpret CIs. This article provides a nontechnical, nonmathematical discussion on how to understand and glean information from CIs; all explanations are accompanied by simple examples. A statistically accurate explanation about CIs is also provided. CIs are differentiated from standard deviations, standard errors, and confidence levels. The interpretation of narrow and wide CIs is discussed. Factors that influence the width of a CI are listed. Explanations are provided for how CIs can be used to assess statistical significance. The significance of overlapping and nonoverlapping CIs is considered. It is concluded that CIs are far more informative than, say, mere P values when drawing conclusions about a result.

  16. Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

    2015-10-01

    Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions. PMID:26447574

  17. Balancing Certainty and Uncertainty in Clinical Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamhi, Alan G.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: In this article, I question how practitioners can balance the certainty and confidence that they can help their patients with the uncertainty that makes them continually question their beliefs and assumptions. Method: I compare the mechanisms of science and models of clinical practice that may help practitioners achieve the right balance…

  18. On the Confidence Limit of Hilbert Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Norden

    2003-01-01

    Confidence limit is a routine requirement for Fourier spectral analysis. But this confidence limit is established based on ergodic theory: For stationary process, temporal average equals the ensemble average. Therefore, one can divide the data into n-sections and treat each section as independent realization. Most natural processes in general, and climate data in particular, are not stationary; therefore, there is a need for the Hilbert Spectral analysis for such processes. Here ergodic theory is no longer applicable. We propose to use various adjustable parameters in the shifting processes of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to obtain an ensemble of Intrinsic Mode Function 0 sets. Based on such an ensemble, we introduce a statistical measure in. a form of confidence limits for the Intrinsic Mode Functions, and consequently, the Hilbert spectra. The criterion of selecting the various adjustable parameters is based on the orthogonality test of the resulting M F sets. Length-of-day data from 1962 to 2001 will be used to illustrate this new approach. Its implication in climate data analysis will also be discussed.

  19. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  20. Shaft balancing

    DOEpatents

    Irwin, John A.

    1979-01-01

    A gas turbine engine has an internal drive shaft including one end connected to a driven load and an opposite end connected to a turbine wheel and wherein the shaft has an in situ adjustable balance system near the critical center of a bearing span for the shaft including two 360.degree. rings piloted on the outer diameter of the shaft at a point accessible through an internal engine panel; each of the rings has a small amount of material removed from its periphery whereby both of the rings are precisely unbalanced an equivalent amount; the rings are locked circumferentially together by radial serrations thereon; numbered tangs on the outside diameter of each ring identify the circumferential location of unbalance once the rings are locked together; an aft ring of the pair of rings has a spline on its inside diameter that mates with a like spline on the shaft to lock the entire assembly together.

  1. Vibrotactile neurofeedback balance training in patients with Parkinson's disease: reducing the number of falls.

    PubMed

    Rossi-Izquierdo, Marcos; Ernst, Arne; Soto-Varela, Andrés; Santos-Pérez, Sofía; Faraldo-García, Ana; Sesar-Ignacio, Angel; Basta, Dietmar

    2013-02-01

    The aim of this study was to assess effectiveness of balance training with a vibrotactile neurofeedback system in improving overall stability in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). Ten patients diagnosed with idiopathic PD were included. Individualization of the rehabilitation program started with a body sway analysis of stance and gait tasks (Standard Balance Deficit Test, SBDT) by using the diagnostic tool of the applied device (Vertiguard(®)-RT). Those tasks with the poorest outcome as related to age- and gender-related controls were included in the training program (not more than six tasks). Improvement of postural stability was assessed by performing SBDT, Sensory Organization Test (SOT) of Computerized Dynamic Posturography (CDP), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), activity-specific balance confidence scale and recording the number of falls over the past three months. Furthermore, scores of SOT and DHI of 10 PD patients previously trained in an earlier study (by using CDP) were compared with results of those in the present study. After neurofeedback training (NFT), there was a statistically significant improvement in body sway (calculated over all training tasks), number of falls, and scores of SOT, DHI and ABC. In comparison with CDP-training, a statistically significant higher increase of SOT score was observed for patients after NFT with the Vertiguard-RT device compared to CDP training. Our results showed that a free-field vibrotactile NFT with Vertiguard(®)-RT device can improve balance in PD patients in everyday life conditions very effectively, which might led in turn to a reduction of falls. PMID:22841586

  2. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    PubMed

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  3. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  4. Confidence and conflicts of duty in surgery.

    PubMed

    Coggon, John; Wheeler, Robert

    2010-03-01

    This paper offers an exploration of the right to confidentiality, considering the moral importance of private information. It is shown that the legitimate value that individuals derive from confidentiality stems from the public interest. It is re-assuring, therefore, that public interest arguments must be made to justify breaches of confidentiality. The General Medical Council's guidance gives very high importance to duties to maintain confidences, but also rightly acknowledges that, at times, there are more important duties that must be met. Nevertheless, this potential conflict of obligations may place the surgeon in difficult clinical situations, and examples of these are described, together with suggestions for resolution. PMID:20353640

  5. AN INITIAL EVALUATION OF THE BTRACKS BALANCE PLATE AND SPORTS BALANCE SOFTWARE FOR CONCUSSION DIAGNOSIS

    PubMed Central

    Manyak, Kristin A.; Abdenour, Thomas E.; Rauh, Mitchell J.; Baweja, Harsimran S.

    2016-01-01

    Background As recently dictated by the American Medical Society, balance testing is an important component in the clinical evaluation of concussion. Despite this, previous research on the efficacy of balance testing for concussion diagnosis suggests low sensitivity (∼30%), based primarily on the popular Balance Error Scoring System (BESS). The Balance Tracking System (BTrackS, Balance Tracking Systems Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) consists of a force plate (BTrackS Balance Plate) and software (BTrackS Sport Balance) which can quickly (<2 min) perform concussion balance testing with gold standard accuracy. Purpose The present study aimed to determine the sensitivity of the BTrackS Balance Plate and Sports Balance Software for concussion diagnosis. Study Design Cross-Sectional Study Methods Preseason baseline balance testing of 519 healthy Division I college athletes playing sports with a relatively high risk for concussions was performed with the BTrackS Balance Test. Testing was administered by certified athletic training staff using the BTrackS Balance Plate and Sport Balance software. Of the baselined athletes, 25 later experienced a concussion during the ensuing sport season. Post-injury balance testing was performed on these concussed athletes within 48 of injury and the sensitivity of the BTrackS Balance Plate and Sport Balance software was estimated based on the number of athletes showing a balance decline according to the criteria specified in the Sport Balance software. This criteria is based on the minimal detectable change statistic with a 90% confidence level (i.e. 90% specificity). Results Of 25 athletes who experienced concussions, 16 had balance declines relative to baseline testing results according to the BTrackS Sport Balance software criteria. This corresponds to an estimated concussion sensitivity of 64%, which is twice as great as that reported previously for the BESS. Conclusions The BTrackS Balance Plate and Sport Balance software has the

  6. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  7. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  8. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  9. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The modal confidence factor (MCF) is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.00 for a distorted nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exists between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF are illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two-degree-of-freedom system with 20%, 40%, and 100% noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained 22% noise.

  10. Sample sizes for confidence limits for reliability.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2010-02-01

    We recently performed an evaluation of the implications of a reduced stockpile of nuclear weapons for surveillance to support estimates of reliability. We found that one technique developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under-estimates the required sample size for systems-level testing. For a large population the discrepancy is not important, but for a small population it is important. We found that another technique used by SNL provides the correct required sample size. For systems-level testing of nuclear weapons, samples are selected without replacement, and the hypergeometric probability distribution applies. Both of the SNL techniques focus on samples without defects from sampling without replacement. We generalized the second SNL technique to cases with defects in the sample. We created a computer program in Mathematica to automate the calculation of confidence for reliability. We also evaluated sampling with replacement where the binomial probability distribution applies.

  11. The 2009 Retirement Confidence Survey: economy drives confidence to record lows; many looking to work longer.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2009-04-01

    RECORD LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS: Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007). THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, COST OF LIVING ARE THE BIG CONCERNS: Not surprisingly, workers overall who have lost confidence over the past year about affording a comfortable retirement most often cite the recent economic uncertainty, inflation, and the cost of living as primary factors. In addition, certain negative experiences, such as job loss or a pay cut, loss of retirement savings, or an increase in debt, almost always contribute to loss of confidence among those who experience them. RETIREMENT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED: Workers apparently expect to work longer because of the economic downturn: 28 percent of workers in the 2009 RCS say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. Of those, the vast majority (89 percent) say that they have postponed retirement with the intention of increasing their financial security. Nevertheless, the median (mid-point) worker expects to retire at age 65, with 21 percent planning to push on into their 70s. The median retiree actually retired at age 62, and 47 percent of retirees say they retired sooner than planned. WORKING IN RETIREMENT: More workers are also planning to supplement their income in retirement by working for pay. The percentage of workers planning to work after they retire has increased to 72 percent in 2009 (up from 66 percent in 2007). This compares with 34 percent of retirees who report they actually worked for pay at some time during their retirement. GREATER WORRY ABOUT BASIC AND HEALTH EXPENSES: Workers who say they very confident in

  12. Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake

    PubMed Central

    Schiöth, Helgi B.; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R.; Benedict, Christian; Elmståhl, Helena; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M.; Hogenkamp, Pleunie S.

    2015-01-01

    Expectations about a food’s satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g), a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g), or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload’s satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = −0.61; p = 0.001). The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03). Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain. PMID:26115087

  13. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  14. Case report: a balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit to reduce fall risk in an older adult with bilateral peripheral neuropathy.

    PubMed

    Hakim, Renée Marie; Salvo, Charles J; Balent, Anthony; Keyasko, Michael; McGlynn, Deidre

    2015-02-01

    A recent systematic review supported the use of strength and balance training for older adults at risk for falls, and provided preliminary evidence for those with peripheral neuropathy (PN). However, the role of gaming systems in fall risk reduction was not explored. The purpose of this case report was to describe the use of the Nintendo® Wii™ Fit gaming system to train standing balance in a community-dwelling older adult with PN and a history of recurrent near falls. A 76-year-old patient with bilateral PN participated in 1 h of Nintendo® Wii™ Fit balance training, two times a week for 6 weeks. Examination was conducted using a Computerized Dynamic Posturography system (i.e. Sensory Organization Test (SOT), Limits of Stability (LOS), Adaptation Test (ADT) and Motor Control Test (MCT) and clinical testing with the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and 30-s Chair Stand. Following training, sensory integration scores on the SOT were unchanged. Maximum excursion abilities improved by a range of 37-86% on the LOS test. MCT scores improved for amplitude with forward translations and ADT scores improved for downward platform rotations. Clinical scores improved on the BBS (28/56-34/56), ABC (57.5-70.6%) and TUG (14.9-10.9 s) which indicated reduced fall risk. Balance training with a gaming system showed promise as a feasible, objective and enjoyable method to improve physical performance and reduce fall risk in an individual with PN. PMID:25515202

  15. Case report: a balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit to reduce fall risk in an older adult with bilateral peripheral neuropathy.

    PubMed

    Hakim, Renée Marie; Salvo, Charles J; Balent, Anthony; Keyasko, Michael; McGlynn, Deidre

    2015-02-01

    A recent systematic review supported the use of strength and balance training for older adults at risk for falls, and provided preliminary evidence for those with peripheral neuropathy (PN). However, the role of gaming systems in fall risk reduction was not explored. The purpose of this case report was to describe the use of the Nintendo® Wii™ Fit gaming system to train standing balance in a community-dwelling older adult with PN and a history of recurrent near falls. A 76-year-old patient with bilateral PN participated in 1 h of Nintendo® Wii™ Fit balance training, two times a week for 6 weeks. Examination was conducted using a Computerized Dynamic Posturography system (i.e. Sensory Organization Test (SOT), Limits of Stability (LOS), Adaptation Test (ADT) and Motor Control Test (MCT) and clinical testing with the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and 30-s Chair Stand. Following training, sensory integration scores on the SOT were unchanged. Maximum excursion abilities improved by a range of 37-86% on the LOS test. MCT scores improved for amplitude with forward translations and ADT scores improved for downward platform rotations. Clinical scores improved on the BBS (28/56-34/56), ABC (57.5-70.6%) and TUG (14.9-10.9 s) which indicated reduced fall risk. Balance training with a gaming system showed promise as a feasible, objective and enjoyable method to improve physical performance and reduce fall risk in an individual with PN.

  16. Reasons to have confidence in condoms.

    PubMed

    Mcneill, E T

    1998-01-01

    When used regularly and correctly, latex condoms are highly reliable and effective in preventing pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease. However, condoms are not being used as much as they should be, mainly because of negative perceptions among both users and health care providers. The following reasons are presented and discussed as to why people should have more confidence in latex condoms: when used correctly, condoms are highly reliable and effective in preventing pregnancy and sexually transmitted disease; latex condoms provide an impermeable mechanical barrier to bacteria, viruses, and sperm; most users do not break condoms, and a proportion of breakage is preventable; modern condoms are manufactured with considerable precision; use of the proper lubricant improves condom use; condoms in intact foil packages last at least 5 years; and quality control and post-production quality assurance help to ensure the manufacture of a reliable product. While it remains to be determined how accurately the test standards predict results during human use, a combination of tests can provide data upon the quality of condoms in the field.

  17. High-Confidence Quantum Gate Tomography

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Johnson, Blake; da Silva, Marcus; Ryan, Colm; Kimmel, Shelby; Donovan, Brian; Ohki, Thomas

    2014-03-01

    Debugging and verification of high-fidelity quantum gates requires the development of new tools and protocols to unwrap the performance of the gate from the rest of the sequence. Randomized benchmarking tomography[2] allows one to extract full information of the unital portion of the gate with high confidence. We report experimental confirmation of the technique's applicability to quantum gate tomography. We show that the method is robust to common experimental imperfections such as imperfect single-shot readout and state preparation. We also demonstrate the ability to characterize non-Clifford gates. To assist in the experimental implementation we introduce two techniques. ``Atomic Cliffords'' use phase ramping and frame tracking to allow single-pulse implementation of the full group of single-qubit Clifford gates. Domain specific pulse sequencers allow rapid implementation of the many thousands of sequences needed. This research was funded by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), through the Army Research Office contract no. W911NF-10-1-0324.

  18. The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2012-03-01

    Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried

  19. Calculating Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes Using Noncentral Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norris, Deborah

    This paper provides a brief review of the concepts of confidence intervals, effect sizes, and central and noncentral distributions. The use of confidence intervals around effect sizes is discussed. A demonstration of the Exploratory Software for Confidence Intervals (G. Cuming and S. Finch, 2001; ESCI) is given to illustrate effect size confidence…

  20. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  1. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  2. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26... COMMUNITY Specific Sector Provisions for Medical Devices § 26.37 Confidence building activities. (a) At the beginning of the transitional period, the Joint Sectoral Group will establish a joint confidence...

  3. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2011-10-01 2011-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  4. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no...

  5. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no...

  6. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  7. Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffitts, Dawn

    2003-01-01

    This economic education publication features an article, "Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?," which defines consumer confidence and describes how it is measured. The article also explores why people might pay so much attention to consumer confidence indexes. The document also contains a question and answer section about deflation as…

  8. Melanoma-associated antigen synthesized in vitro for active specific immunotherapy.

    PubMed

    Hayashibe, K

    1992-11-01

    The immunogenicity of the antigen molecule is a prerequisite for active specific immunotherapy for melanoma. Since most of the melanoma-associated antigens recognized by the murine immune system are known to be not immunogenic in man, a detection and analysis system for melanoma-associated antigens is required to reflect in vivo immune responses in patients with melanoma. One of the promising approaches, an attempt to develop human monoclonal antibodies from B lymphocytes of patients with melanoma, has met with limited success due to the difficulties of producing large amounts of antibodies and using them in immunochemical assays, because most of them belong to the IgM class and have low affinity. Our approach is to utilize the screening of a cDNA expression library constructed from mRNA extracted from cultured melanoma cells with antibodies from patients with melanoma. The cloned cDNA, designated as D-1, had 1029 bp and showed no significant homology with viral and mammalian sequences stored in GENETYX. cDNA D-1 hybridized to a 2.0 kb mRNA species from 3 different cell lines of human melanoma, neuroblastoma, erythroleukemia, B lymphoid, and T lymphoid cells, but not from a renal carcinoma cell line, normal peripheral lymphocytes, or normal fibroblasts. The in vivo expression and distribution of mRNA related to cDNA D-1 has been examined in tissue specimens by in situ hybridization and shown to be rather restricted on melanoma cells. The polypeptide antigen encoded by cDNA D-1 may be a valuable immunogen for implementing active specific immunotherapy in patients with melanoma.

  9. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  10. Computing confidence intervals for standardized regression coefficients.

    PubMed

    Jones, Jeff A; Waller, Niels G

    2013-12-01

    With fixed predictors, the standard method (Cohen, Cohen, West, & Aiken, 2003, p. 86; Harris, 2001, p. 80; Hays, 1994, p. 709) for computing confidence intervals (CIs) for standardized regression coefficients fails to account for the sampling variability of the criterion standard deviation. With random predictors, this method also fails to account for the sampling variability of the predictor standard deviations. Nevertheless, under some conditions the standard method will produce CIs with accurate coverage rates. To delineate these conditions, we used a Monte Carlo simulation to compute empirical CI coverage rates in samples drawn from 36 populations with a wide range of data characteristics. We also computed the empirical CI coverage rates for 4 alternative methods that have been discussed in the literature: noncentrality interval estimation, the delta method, the percentile bootstrap, and the bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap. Our results showed that for many data-parameter configurations--for example, sample size, predictor correlations, coefficient of determination (R²), orientation of β with respect to the eigenvectors of the predictor correlation matrix, RX--the standard method produced coverage rates that were close to their expected values. However, when population R² was large and when β approached the last eigenvector of RX, then the standard method coverage rates were frequently below the nominal rate (sometimes by a considerable amount). In these conditions, the delta method and the 2 bootstrap procedures were consistently accurate. Results using noncentrality interval estimation were inconsistent. In light of these findings, we recommend that researchers use the delta method to evaluate the sampling variability of standardized regression coefficients.

  11. Balance in Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Richard

    2007-01-01

    The review by Black and Wiliam of national systems makes clear the complexity of assessment, and identifies important issues. One of these is "balance": balance between local and central responsibilities, balance between the weights given to various purposes of schooling, balance between weights for various functions of assessment, and balance…

  12. Dynamic balance improvement program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butner, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    The reduction of residual unbalance in the space shuttle main engine (SSME) high pressure turbopump rotors was addressed. Elastic rotor response to unbalance and balancing requirements, multiplane and in housing balancing, and balance related rotor design considerations were assessed. Recommendations are made for near term improvement of the SSME balancing and for future study and development efforts.

  13. A Question of Balance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Claxton, David B.; Troy, Maridy; Dupree, Sarah

    2006-01-01

    Most authorities consider balance to be a component of skill-related physical fitness. Balance, however, is directly related to health, especially for older adults. Falls are a leading cause of injury and death among the elderly. Improved balance can help reduce falls and contribute to older people remaining physically active. Balance is a…

  14. Volume of confidence ellipsoid: a technique for quantifying trunk sway during stance.

    PubMed

    Kutilek, Patrik; Cakrt, Ondrej; Socha, Vladimir; Hana, Karel

    2015-04-01

    The position of the trunk can be negatively affected by many diseases. This work focuses on a noninvasive method of quantifying human postural stability and identifying defects in balance and coordination as a result of the nervous system pathology. We used a three-degree-of-freedom orientation tracker (Xsens MTx unit) placed on a patient's trunk and measured three-dimensional (3-D) data (pitch, roll, and yaw) during quiet stance. The principal component analysis was used to analyze the data and to determine the volume of 3-D 95% confidence ellipsoid. Using this method, we were able to model the distribution of the measured 3-D data (pitch, roll, and yaw). Eight patients with degenerative cerebellar disease and eight healthy subjects in this study were measured during stance, with eyes open and eyes closed, and statistical analysis was performed. The results of the new method based on the 3-D confidence ellipsoid show that the volumes related to the patients are significantly larger than the volumes related to the healthy subjects. The concept of confidence ellipsoid volume, although known to the biomechanics community, has not been used before to study the postural balance problems. The method can also be used to study, for example, head and pelvis movements or alignments during stance. PMID:25720031

  15. Relating confidence to information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-12-02

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing security risk results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to determine a qualitative measure of confidence in a qualitative reasoning result from the available information uncertainty in the result using membership values in the fuzzy sets of confidence. In this study information uncertainty is quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values. Measured values of information uncertainty in each result is used to obtain the confidence. The determined confidence values are used to compare competing scenarios and understand the influences on the desired result.

  16. Balancing Vanguard Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simkovich, A.; Baumann, Robert C.

    1961-01-01

    The Vanguard satellites and component parts were balanced within the specified limits by using a Gisholt Type-S balancer in combination with a portable International Research and Development vibration analyzer and filter, with low-frequency pickups. Equipment and procedures used for balancing are described; and the determination of residual imbalance is accomplished by two methods: calculation, and graphical interpretation. Between-the-bearings balancing is recommended for future balancing of payloads.

  17. Crisis Prevention Centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for the Middle East

    SciTech Connect

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are important in this area, and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, interrelated categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. Technology is required for establishing communication systems to ensure the timely flow of information between countries and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues, thereby supporting the implementation of confidence building measures and treaties. Technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries, thereby providing an important channel for improving relationships. Potential first steps for a CPC in the Middle Ease could include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a ``Hot Line` in bilateral and multilateral-lateral emergency situations. Bilateral cooperative monitoring centers could be established to assist with implementation of agreements. A centrally located CPC could serve as a regional communications hub, coordinating a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities. Specific recommendations for confidence building activities are discussed.

  18. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    PubMed

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  19. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    PubMed

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  20. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    PubMed Central

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  1. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    PubMed Central

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  2. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  3. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    PubMed

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings. PMID:21902013

  4. Hypohydration does not alter standing balance.

    PubMed

    Seay, Joseph F; Ely, Brett R; Kenefick, Robert W; Sauer, Shane G; Cheuvront, Samuel N

    2013-04-01

    We examined the effect of body water deficits on standing balance and sought to determine if plasma hyperosmolality (P(osm)) and/or volume reduction (%ΔV(plasma)) exerted independent effects. Nine healthy volunteers completed three experimental trials which consisted of a euhydration (EUH) balance test, a water deficit session and a hypohydration (HYP) balance test. Hypohydration was achieved both by exercise-heat stress to 3% and 5% body mass loss (BML), and by a diuretic to 3% BML. Standing balance was assessed during quiet standing on a force platform with eyes open and closed. With eyes closed, hypohydration significantly decreased medial-lateral sway path and velocity by 13% (both p < .040). However, 95% confidence intervals for the mean difference between EUH and HYP were all within the coefficient of variation of EUH measures, indicating limited practical importance. Neither V(plasma) loss nor P(osm) increases were associated with changes in balance. We concluded that standing balance was not altered by hypohydration. PMID:23155117

  5. Angiotensin II and norepinephrine activate specific calcineurin-dependent NFAT transcription factor isoforms in cardiomyocytes.

    PubMed

    Lunde, Ida G; Kvaløy, Heidi; Austbø, Bjørg; Christensen, Geir; Carlson, Cathrine R

    2011-11-01

    Norepinephrine (NE) and angiotensin II (ANG II) are primary effectors of the sympathetic adrenergic and the renin-angiotensin-aldosterone systems, mediating hypertrophic, apoptotic, and fibrotic events in the myocardium. As NE and ANG II have been shown to affect intracellular calcium in cardiomyocytes, we hypothesized that they activate the calcium-sensitive, prohypertrophic calcineurin-nuclear factor of activated T-cell (NFATc) signaling pathway. More specifically, we have investigated isoform-specific activation of NFAT in NE- and ANG II-stimulated cardiomyocytes, as it is likely that each of the four calcineurin-dependent isoforms, c1-c4, play specific roles. We have stimulated neonatal ventriculocytes from C57/B6 and NFAT-luciferase reporter mice with ANG II or NE and quantified NFAT activity by luciferase activity and phospho-immunoblotting. ANG II and NE increased calcineurin-dependent NFAT activity 2.4- and 1.9-fold, measured as luciferase activity after 24 h of stimulation, and induced protein synthesis, measured by radioactive leucine incorporation after 24 and 72 h. To optimize measurements of NFAT isoforms, we examined the specificity of NFAT antibodies on peptide arrays and by immunoblotting with designed blocking peptides. Western analyses showed that both effectors activate NFATc1 and c4, while NFATc2 activity was regulated by NE only, as measured by phospho-NFAT levels. Neither ANG II nor NE activated NFATc3. As today's main therapies for heart failure aim at antagonizing the adrenergic and renin-angiotensin-aldosterone systems, understanding their intracellular actions is of importance, and our data, through validating a method for measuring myocardial NFATs, indicate that ANG II and NE activate specific NFATc isoforms in cardiomyocytes.

  6. Accuracy of Optimized Branched Algorithms to Assess Activity-Specific PAEE

    PubMed Central

    Edwards, Andy G.; Hill, James O.; Byrnes, William C.; Browning, Raymond C.

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE To assess the activity-specific accuracy achievable by branched algorithm (BA) analysis of simulated daily-living physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) within a sedentary population. METHODS Sedentary men (n=8) and women (n=8) first performed a treadmill calibration protocol, during which heart rate (HR), accelerometry (ACC), and PAEE were measured in 1-minute epochs. From these data, HR-PAEE, and ACC-PAEE regressions were constructed and used in each of six analytic models to predict PAEE from ACC and HR data collected during a subsequent simulated daily-living protocol. Criterion PAEE was measured during both protocols via indirect calorimetry. The accuracy achieved by each model was assessed by the root mean square of the difference between model-predicted daily–living PAEE and the criterion daily-living PAEE (expressed here as % of mean daily living PAEE). RESULTS Across the range of activities an unconstrained post hoc optimized branched algorithm best predicted criterion PAEE. Estimates using individual calibration were generally more accurate than those using group calibration (14 vs. 16 % error, respectively). These analyses also performed well within each of the six daily-living activities, but systematic errors appeared for several of those activities, which may be explained by an inability of the algorithm to simultaneously accommodate a heterogeneous range of activities. Analyses of between mean square error by subject and activity suggest that optimization involving minimization of RMS for total daily-living PAEE is associated with decreased error between subjects but increased error between activities. CONCLUSION The performance of post hoc optimized branched algorithms may be limited by heterogeneity in the daily-living activities being performed. PMID:19952842

  7. Skylab water balance analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1977-01-01

    The water balance of the Skylab crew was analyzed. Evaporative water loss using a whole body input/output balance equation, water, body tissue, and energy balance was analyzed. The approach utilizes the results of several major Skylab medical experiments. Subsystems were designed for the use of the software necessary for the analysis. A partitional water balance that graphically depicts the changes due to water intake is presented. The energy balance analysis determines the net available energy to the individual crewman during any period. The balances produce a visual description of the total change of a particular body component during the course of the mission. The information is salvaged from metabolic balance data if certain techniques are used to reduce errors inherent in the balance method.

  8. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOEpatents

    Decker, D.E.

    1998-02-17

    A beamsplitter assembly is disclosed that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting. 10 figs.

  9. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOEpatents

    Decker, Derek E.

    1998-01-01

    A beamsplitter assembly that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting.

  10. Get the Balance Right.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Haddock, Rebecca Jaurigue

    Today work goes on 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, and is about acceleration and access. Workers need balance more than ever. In fact, recent college graduates value work/life balance as their key factor in selecting employers. This paper, written for career counselors, defines balance as encompassing emotional, spiritual, physical, and…

  11. Reconceptualizing balance: attributes associated with balance performance.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Julia C; Odonkor, Charles; Griffith, Laura; Holt, Nicole; Percac-Lima, Sanja; Leveille, Suzanne; Ni, Pensheng; Latham, Nancy K; Jette, Alan M; Bean, Jonathan F

    2014-09-01

    Balance tests are commonly used to screen for impairments that put older adults at risk for falls. The purpose of this study was to determine the attributes that were associated with balance performance as measured by the Frailty and Injuries: Cooperative Studies of Intervention Techniques (FICSIT) balance test. This study was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from a longitudinal cohort study, the Boston Rehabilitative Impairment Study of the Elderly (Boston RISE). Boston RISE was performed in an outpatient rehabilitation research center and evaluated Boston area primary care patients aged 65 to 96 (N=364) with self-reported difficulty or task-modification climbing a flight of stairs or walking 1/2 of a mile. The outcome measure was standing balance as measured by the FICSIT-4 balance assessment. Other measures included: self-efficacy, pain, depression, executive function, vision, sensory loss, reaction time, kyphosis, leg range of motion, trunk extensor muscle endurance, leg strength and leg velocity at peak power. Participants were 67% female, had an average age of 76.5 (±7.0) years, an average of 4.1 (±2.0) chronic conditions, and an average FICSIT-4 score of 6.7 (±2.2) out of 9. After adjusting for age and gender, attributes significantly associated with balance performance were falls self-efficacy, trunk extensor muscle endurance, sensory loss, and leg velocity at peak power. FICSIT-4 balance performance is associated with a number of behavioral and physiologic attributes, many of which are amenable to rehabilitative treatment. Our findings support a consideration of balance as multidimensional activity as proposed by the current International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) model. PMID:24952097

  12. Information and Communication: Tools for Increasing Confidence in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    Beginning with a review of signs and signals of public attitudes toward American education over the last 15 years, this paper analyzes some concerns regarding public confidence in public schools. Following a brief introduction, issues involved in the definition and behavioral attributes of confidence are mentioned. A synopsis of three approaches…

  13. Confidence and memory: assessing positive and negative correlations.

    PubMed

    Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The capacity to learn and remember surely evolved to help animals solve problems in their quest to reproduce and survive. In humans we assume that metacognitive processes also evolved, so that we know when to trust what we remember (i.e., when we have high confidence in our memories) and when not to (when we have low confidence). However this latter feature has been questioned by researchers, with some finding a high correlation between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory and others finding little to no correlation. In two experiments we report a recognition memory paradigm that, using the same materials (categorised lists), permits the study of positive correlations, zero correlations, and negative correlations between confidence and accuracy within the same procedure. We had subjects study words from semantic categories with the five items most frequently produced in norms omitted from the list; later, subjects were given an old/new recognition test and made confidence ratings on their judgements. Although the correlation between confidence and accuracy for studied items was generally positive, the correlation for the five omitted items was negative in some methods of analysis. We pinpoint the similarity between lures and targets as creating inversions between confidence and accuracy in memory. We argue that, while confidence is generally a useful indicant of accuracy in reports from memory, in certain environmental circumstances even adaptive processes can foster illusions of memory. Thus understanding memory illusions is similar to understanding perceptual illusions: Processes that are usually adaptive can go awry under certain circumstances.

  14. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  15. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  16. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  17. A Note on Confidence Interval Estimation and Margin of Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliland, Dennis; Melfi, Vince

    2010-01-01

    Confidence interval estimation is a fundamental technique in statistical inference. Margin of error is used to delimit the error in estimation. Dispelling misinterpretations that teachers and students give to these terms is important. In this note, we give examples of the confusion that can arise in regard to confidence interval estimation and…

  18. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  19. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  20. Confidence vs. Authority: Visions of the Writer in Rhetorical Theory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Perdue, Virginia

    By building up the confidence of student writers, writing teachers hope to reduce the hostility and anxiety so often found in authoritarian introductory college composition classes. Process oriented writing theory implicitly defines confidence as a wholly personal quality resulting from students' discovery that they do have "something to say" to…

  1. A Rasch Analysis of the Teachers Music Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yim, Hoi Yin Bonnie; Abd-El-Fattah, Sabry; Lee, Lai Wan Maria

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a new measure of teachers' confidence to conduct musical activities with young children; Teachers Music Confidence Scale (TMCS). The TMCS was developed using a sample of 284 in-service and pre-service early childhood teachers in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The TMCS consisted of 10 musical activities.…

  2. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  3. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  4. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  5. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  6. Prospective Teachers' Problem Solving Skills and Self-Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gursen Otacioglu, Sena

    2008-01-01

    The basic objective of the research is to determine whether the education that prospective teachers in different fields receive is related to their levels of problem solving skills and self-confidence. Within the mentioned framework, the prospective teachers' problem solving and self-confidence levels have been examined under several variables.…

  7. A (revised) confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaubaillon, J.

    2016-01-01

    A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. The goal is to provide users with information regarding the way the forecasting is performed, so several degrees of confidence is achieved. This paper presents the meaning of the index coding system.

  8. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  9. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  10. Confidence and Gender Differences on the Mental Rotations Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooke-Simpson, Amanda; Voyer, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    The present study examined the relation between self-reported confidence ratings, performance on the Mental Rotations Test (MRT), and guessing behavior on the MRT. Eighty undergraduate students (40 males, 40 females) completed the MRT while rating their confidence in the accuracy of their answers for each item. As expected, gender differences in…

  11. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    SciTech Connect

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  12. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  13. Contrasting diversity values: statistical inferences based on overlapping confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance).

  14. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    PubMed Central

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  15. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p <.001. The items identified were those related to self-confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning. PMID:26599594

  16. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p <.001. The items identified were those related to self-confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning.

  17. Linking learning and confidence in developing expert practice.

    PubMed

    Currie, Kay

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents findings from a recent PhD grounded theory study exploring the practice development role of graduate specialist practitioners. A key finding within this theory is the influence of learning and confidence on the practitioner journey. The concept of confidence emerged repeatedly throughout the analysis and can be characterized as a motivational driver, a consequence of learning and gaining respect, and a condition for graduate specialist practitioners' moving on to impact in practice development. Analysis of the concept of confidence as it influences practice is limited in existing literature. This article seeks to address this gap by illustrating the centrality of learning and confidence in the development of expert specialist practices. It is anticipated that these findings will resonate with the experiences of clinicians and faculty internationally and heightened awareness of consequences of developing confidence can be utilized to strengthen the impact of a wide range of nursing programs.

  18. Development of a core confidence-higher order construct.

    PubMed

    Stajkovic, Alexander D

    2006-11-01

    The author develops core confidence as a higher order construct and suggests that a core confidence-higher order construct--not addressed by extant work motivation theories--is helpful in better understanding employee motivation in today's rapidly changing organizations. Drawing from psychology (social, clinical, and developmental) and social anthropology, the author develops propositions regarding the relationships between core confidence and performance, attitudes, and subjective well-being. The core confidence-higher order construct is proposed to be manifested by hope, self-efficacy, optimism, and resilience. The author reasons that these four variables share a common confidence core (a higher order construct) and may be considered as its manifestations. Suggestions for future research and implications of the work are discussed. PMID:17100479

  19. The Confidence Factor: Some Results of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Public Confidence in Education. A Research Report.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wayson, W. W.; And Others

    This study sought to determine characteristics of schools and districts that enjoy the public's strong confidence and to explore how these characteristics are created and retained. A screening procedure produced useable data from 181 "high-confidence" public schools, 30 private schools, and 45 school districts. As part of a preliminary pilot…

  20. Playing with confidence: the relationship between imagery use and self-confidence and self-efficacy in youth soccer players.

    PubMed

    Munroe-Chandler, Krista; Hall, Craig; Fishburne, Graham

    2008-12-01

    Confidence has been one of the most consistent factors in distinguishing the successful from the unsuccessful athletes (Gould, Weiss, & Weinberg, 1981) and Bandura (1997) proposed that imagery is one way to enhance confidence. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between imagery use and confidence in soccer (football) players. The participants included 122 male and female soccer athletes ages 11-14 years participating in both house/ recreation (n = 72) and travel/competitive (n = 50) levels. Athletes completed three questionnaires; one measuring the frequency of imagery use, one assessing generalised self-confidence, and one assessing self-efficacy in soccer. A series of regression analyses found that Motivational General-Mastery (MG-M) imagery was a signifant predictor of self-confidence and self-efficacy in both recreational and competitive youth soccer players. More specifically, MG-M imagery accounted for between 40 and 57% of the variance for both self-confidence and self-efficacy with two other functions (MG-A and MS) contributing marginally in the self-confidence regression for recreational athletes. These findings suggest that if a youth athlete, regardless of competitive level, wants to increase his/her self-confidence or self-efficacy through the use of imagery, the MG-M function should be emphasised. PMID:18949659

  1. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  2. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  3. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making.

    PubMed

    Aitchison, Laurence; Bang, Dan; Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E

    2015-10-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people's confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  4. Confidence Region Estimation for Groundwater Parameter Identification Problems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vugrin, K. W.; Swiler, L. P.; Roberts, R. M.

    2007-12-01

    This presentation focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F--test method, and a Log--Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well--test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Each of the three methods produce similar and reasonable confidence regions for the case study using synthetic data. The linear approximation method grossly overestimates the confidence region for the first groundwater parameter identification case study. The F--test and Log--Likelihood methods result in similar reasonable regions for this test case. For the second groundwater parameter identification case study, the linear approximation method produces a confidence region of reasonable size. In this test case, the F--test and Log--Likelihood methods generate disjoint confidence regions of reasonable size. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed. Sandia is a multi program laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin Company, for the United States Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under Contract DE-AC04- 94AL85000. This research is funded by WIPP programs administered by the Office of Environmental Management (EM) of the U.S Department of Energy.

  5. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  6. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  7. Developing scientific confidence in HTS-derived prediction models: lessons learned from an endocrine case study.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony; Popken, Douglas; Marty, M Sue; Rowlands, J Craig; Patlewicz, Grace; Goyak, Katy O; Becker, Richard A

    2014-08-01

    High throughput (HTS) and high content (HCS) screening methods show great promise in changing how hazard and risk assessments are undertaken, but scientific confidence in such methods and associated prediction models needs to be established prior to regulatory use. Using a case study of HTS-derived models for predicting in vivo androgen (A), estrogen (E), thyroid (T) and steroidogenesis (S) endpoints in endocrine screening assays, we compare classification (fitting) models to cross validation (prediction) models. The more robust cross validation models (based on a set of endocrine ToxCast™ assays and guideline in vivo endocrine screening studies) have balanced accuracies from 79% to 85% for A and E, but only 23% to 50% for T and S. Thus, for E and A, HTS results appear promising for initial use in setting priorities for endocrine screening. However, continued research is needed to expand the domain of applicability and to develop more robust HTS/HCS-based prediction models prior to their use in other regulatory applications. Based on the lessons learned, we propose a framework for documenting scientific confidence in HTS assays and the prediction models derived therefrom. The documentation, transparency and the scientific rigor involved in addressing the elements in the proposed Scientific Confidence Framework could aid in discussions and decisions about the prediction accuracy needed for different applications. PMID:24845243

  8. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  9. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  10. Estimation of confidence intervals for federal waterfowl harvest surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geissler, P.H.

    1990-01-01

    I developed methods of estimating confidence intervals for the federal waterfowl harvest surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). I estimated flyway harvest confidence intervals for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) (95% CI are .+-. 8% of the estimate). Canada geese (Branta canadensis) (.+-. 11%), black ducks (Anas rubripes) (.+-. 16%), canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) (.+-. 32%), snow geese (Chen caerulescens) (.+-. 43%), and brant (Branta bernicla) (.+-. 46%). Differences between annual estimate of 10, 13, 22, 42, 43, and 58% could be detected with mallards, Canada geese, black ducks, canvasbacks, snow geese, and brant, respectively. Estimated confidence intervals for state harvests tended to be much larger than those for the flyway estimates.

  11. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  12. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  13. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-13

    ... 2, 2013 (77 FR 65137). Results of that scoping process are documented in the ``Waste Confidence... Place, 8629 J.M. Keynes Drive, Charlotte, North Carolina 28262. November 6, 2013: Hyatt Regency...

  14. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  15. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    PubMed Central

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  16. The self-assessment of confidence, by one vocational trainee

    PubMed Central

    Leonard, Colin

    1979-01-01

    A list of important topics in general practice was constructed and a trainee was asked to indicate his confidence about each topic on a one to five scale. Repeated use showed different confidence ratings by the same trainee, and an attempt was made to correlate factual knowledge by using a multiple choice questionnaire. Despite important limitations, which are described, this method may be useful in identifying suitable topics for teaching during the trainee year. PMID:541789

  17. Leaders, self-confidence, and hubris: what's the difference?

    PubMed

    Kerfoot, Karlene M

    2010-01-01

    Success can easily breed hubris. As leaders become more confident, their success can limit their learning because they develop repetitive patterns of filtering information based on past successes and discount information that does not agree with their patterns of success. It is important for leaders to stay grounded in reality and effective as their success grows. Humility, gratitude, and appreciation will avoid the overconfidence that leads to hubris. Building confidence in others is the mark of a great leader. Hubris is not.

  18. A balanced view of balanced solutions.

    PubMed

    Guidet, Bertrand; Soni, Neil; Della Rocca, Giorgio; Kozek, Sibylle; Vallet, Benoît; Annane, Djillali; James, Mike

    2010-01-01

    The present review of fluid therapy studies using balanced solutions versus isotonic saline fluids (both crystalloids and colloids) aims to address recent controversy in this topic. The change to the acid-base equilibrium based on fluid selection is described. Key terms such as dilutional-hyperchloraemic acidosis (correctly used instead of dilutional acidosis or hyperchloraemic metabolic acidosis to account for both the Henderson-Hasselbalch and Stewart equations), isotonic saline and balanced solutions are defined. The review concludes that dilutional-hyperchloraemic acidosis is a side effect, mainly observed after the administration of large volumes of isotonic saline as a crystalloid. Its effect is moderate and relatively transient, and is minimised by limiting crystalloid administration through the use of colloids (in any carrier). Convincing evidence for clinically relevant adverse effects of dilutional-hyperchloraemic acidosis on renal function, coagulation, blood loss, the need for transfusion, gastrointestinal function or mortality cannot be found. In view of the long-term use of isotonic saline either as a crystalloid or as a colloid carrier, the paucity of data documenting detrimental effects of dilutional-hyperchloraemic acidosis and the limited published information on the effects of balanced solutions on outcome, we cannot currently recommend changing fluid therapy to the use of a balanced colloid preparation.

  19. Identifying Balance in a Balanced Scorecard System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aravamudhan, Suhanya; Kamalanabhan, T. J.

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, strategic management concepts seem to be gaining greater attention from the academicians and the practitioner's alike. Balanced Scorecard (BSC) concept is one such management concepts that has spread in worldwide business and consulting communities. The BSC translates mission and vision statements into a comprehensive set of…

  20. Learning to Make Collective Decisions: The Impact of Confidence Escalation

    PubMed Central

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others’ opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants’ confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members’ confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions. PMID:24324677

  1. Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cousins, R. D.

    The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

  2. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    PubMed

    Löwer, Martin; Renard, Bernhard Y; de Graaf, Jos; Wagner, Meike; Paret, Claudia; Kneip, Christoph; Türeci, Ozlem; Diken, Mustafa; Britten, Cedrik; Kreiter, Sebastian; Koslowski, Michael; Castle, John C; Sahin, Ugur

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR), to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence) and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence). All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50), none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set.

  3. The Asteroid Identification Problem. II. Target Plane Confidence Boundaries

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Milani, Andrea; Valsecchi, Giovanni B.

    1999-08-01

    The nominal orbit solution for an asteroid/comet resulting from a least squares fit to astrometric observations is surrounded by a region containing solutions equally compatible with the data, the confidence region. If the observed arc is not too short, and for an epoch close to the observations, the confidence region in the six-dimensional space of orbital elements is well approximated by an ellipsoid. This uncertainty of the orbital elements maps to a position uncertainty at close approach, which can be represented on a Modified Target Plane (MTP), a modification of the one used by Öpik. The MTP is orthogonal to the geocentric velocity at the closest approach point along the nominal orbit. In the linear approximation, the confidence ellipsoids are mapped on the MTP into concentric ellipses, computed by solving the variational equation. For an object observed at only one opposition, however, if the close approach is expected after many revolutions, the ellipses on the MTP become extremely elongated, therefore the linear approximation may fail, and the confidence boundaries on the MTP, by definition the nonlinear images of the confidence ellipsoids, may not be well approximated by the ellipses. In theory the Monte Carlo method by Muinonen and Bowell (1993, Icarus104, 255-279) can be used to compute the nonlinear confidence boundaries, but in practice the computational load is very heavy. We propose a new method to compute semilinear confidence boundaries on the MTP, based on the theory developed by Milani (1999, Icarus137, 269-292) to efficiently compute confidence boundaries for predicted observations. This method is a reasonable compromise between reliability and computational load, and can be used for real time risk assessment. These arguments can be applied to any small body approaching any planet, but in the case of a potentially hazardous object (PHO), either an asteroid or a comet whose orbit comes very close to that of the Earth, the application is most

  4. Pre-Service Elementary Teachers' Perceptions of Factors in an Holistic Methods Course Influencing their Confidence in Teaching Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howitt, Christine

    2007-03-01

    Lack of confidence towards science is a major factor in the avoidance of teaching science at elementary school. This paper reports the results of a survey that asked 28 pre-service elementary teachers what they believed contributed to their confidence towards science and the teaching of science during a second year science unit where an holistic teaching/learning approach was taken. The holistic nature of the unit was based on a model that considered six major factors to be important influences on the confidence of the pre-service teacher. Using median values, and ranking from the most to least important factor influencing their confidence, the pre-service teachers identified practicum, teacher educator, pedagogical content knowledge, learning environment, assessment and reflection. Factors within pedagogical content knowledge, ranked from most to least important, were science pedagogy, science activities, children's views of science, science content knowledge and investigating scientifically. The wide variability in responses highlighted that no single factor was perceived to be a major contributor to the pre-service teachers' confidence, but rather a balanced mix was necessary. Implications for pre-service elementary science education units are discussed.

  5. Chemical Equation Balancing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blakley, G. R.

    1982-01-01

    Reviews mathematical techniques for solving systems of homogeneous linear equations and demonstrates that the algebraic method of balancing chemical equations is a matter of solving a system of homogeneous linear equations. FORTRAN programs using this matrix method to chemical equation balancing are available from the author. (JN)

  6. Leadership: A Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hines, Thomas E.

    2011-01-01

    Maintaining balance in leadership can be difficult because balance is affected by the personality, strengths, and attitudes of the leader as well as the complicated environment within and outside the community college itself. This article explores what being a leader at the community college means, what the threats are to effective leadership, and…

  7. Judicial Checks and Balances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    La Porta, Rafael; Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio; Pop-Eleches, Cristian; Shleifer, Andrei

    2004-01-01

    In the Anglo-American constitutional tradition, judicial checks and balances are often seen as crucial guarantees of freedom. Hayek distinguishes two ways in which the judiciary provides such checks and balances: judicial independence and constitutional review. We create a new database of constitutional rules in 71 countries that reflect these…

  8. The Technology Balance Beam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coulson, Eddie K.

    2006-01-01

    "The Technology Balance Beam" is designed to question the role of technology within school districts. This case study chronicles a typical school district in relation to the school district's implementation of technology beginning in the 1995-1996 school year. The fundamental question that this scenario raises is, What is the balance between…

  9. A Balance of Power?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mosey, Edward

    1991-01-01

    The booming economy of the Pacific Northwest region promotes the dilemma of balancing the need for increased electrical power with the desire to maintain that region's unspoiled natural environment. Pertinent factors discussed within the balance equation are population trends, economic considerations, industrial power requirements, and…

  10. Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripp, John S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

  11. Active balance system and vibration balanced machine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Qiu, Songgang (Inventor); Augenblick, John E. (Inventor); Peterson, Allen A. (Inventor); White, Maurice A. (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    An active balance system is provided for counterbalancing vibrations of an axially reciprocating machine. The balance system includes a support member, a flexure assembly, a counterbalance mass, and a linear motor or an actuator. The support member is configured for attachment to the machine. The flexure assembly includes at least one flat spring having connections along a central portion and an outer peripheral portion. One of the central portion and the outer peripheral portion is fixedly mounted to the support member. The counterbalance mass is fixedly carried by the flexure assembly along another of the central portion and the outer peripheral portion. The linear motor has one of a stator and a mover fixedly mounted to the support member and another of the stator and the mover fixedly mounted to the counterbalance mass. The linear motor is operative to axially reciprocate the counterbalance mass.

  12. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience—approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain—to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This “emotor” control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on “confidence.” Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  13. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  14. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  15. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  16. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  17. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  18. Load Balancing Scientific Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Pearce, Olga Tkachyshyn

    2014-12-01

    The largest supercomputers have millions of independent processors, and concurrency levels are rapidly increasing. For ideal efficiency, developers of the simulations that run on these machines must ensure that computational work is evenly balanced among processors. Assigning work evenly is challenging because many large modern parallel codes simulate behavior of physical systems that evolve over time, and their workloads change over time. Furthermore, the cost of imbalanced load increases with scale because most large-scale scientific simulations today use a Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) parallel programming model, and an increasing number of processors will wait for the slowest one at the synchronization points. To address load imbalance, many large-scale parallel applications use dynamic load balance algorithms to redistribute work evenly. The research objective of this dissertation is to develop methods to decide when and how to load balance the application, and to balance it effectively and affordably. We measure and evaluate the computational load of the application, and develop strategies to decide when and how to correct the imbalance. Depending on the simulation, a fast, local load balance algorithm may be suitable, or a more sophisticated and expensive algorithm may be required. We developed a model for comparison of load balance algorithms for a specific state of the simulation that enables the selection of a balancing algorithm that will minimize overall runtime.

  19. Consideration of Dynamical Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

  20. Balance Evaluation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    NeuroCom's Balance Master is a system to assess and then retrain patients with balance and mobility problems and is used in several medical centers. NeuroCom received assistance in research and funding from NASA, and incorporated technology from testing mechanisms for astronauts after shuttle flights. The EquiTest and Balance Master Systems are computerized posturography machines that measure patient responses to movement of a platform on which the subject is standing or sitting, then provide assessments of the patient's postural alignment and stability.

  1. Errors in potassium balance

    SciTech Connect

    Forbes, G.B.; Lantigua, R.; Amatruda, J.M.; Lockwood, D.H.

    1981-01-01

    Six overweight adult subjects given a low calorie diet containing adequate amounts of nitrogen but subnormal amounts of potassium (K) were observed on the Clinical Research Center for periods of 29 to 40 days. Metabolic balance of potassium was measured together with frequent assays of total body K by /sup 40/K counting. Metabolic K balance underestimated body K losses by 11 to 87% (average 43%): the intersubject variability is such as to preclude the use of a single correction value for unmeasured losses in K balance studies.

  2. A question of balance

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, G.; Brown, H.; Strawn, N.

    1996-12-31

    Nature seeks a balance. The global carbon cycle, in which carbon is exchanged between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans through natural processes such as absorption, photosynthesis, and respiration, is one of those balances. This constant exchange promotes an equilibrium in which atmospheric carbon dioxide is keep relatively steady over long periods of time. For the last 10,000 years, up to the 19th century, the global carbon cycle has maintained atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide between 260 and 290 ppm. This article discusses the disturbance of the balance, how ethanol fuels address the carbon dioxide imbalance, and a bioethanol strategy.

  3. Selecting accurate statements from the cognitive interview using confidence ratings.

    PubMed

    Roberts, Wayne T; Higham, Philip A

    2002-03-01

    Participants viewed a videotape of a simulated murder, and their recall (and confidence) was tested 1 week later with the cognitive interview. Results indicated that (a) the subset of statements assigned high confidence was more accurate than the full set of statements; (b) the accuracy benefit was limited to information that forensic experts considered relevant to an investigation, whereas peripheral information showed the opposite pattern; (c) the confidence-accuracy relationship was higher for relevant than for peripheral information; (d) the focused-retrieval phase was associated with a greater proportion of peripheral and a lesser proportion of relevant information than the other phases; and (e) only about 50% of the relevant information was elicited, and most of this was elicited in Phase 1.

  4. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-03-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making. PMID:26906503

  5. Confidence as a Common Currency between Vision and Audition

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Le Corre, François; Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The idea of a common currency underlying our choice behaviour has played an important role in sciences of behaviour, from neurobiology to psychology and economics. However, while it has been mainly investigated in terms of values, with a common scale on which goods would be evaluated and compared, the question of a common scale for subjective probabilities and confidence in particular has received only little empirical investigation so far. The present study extends previous work addressing this question, by showing that confidence can be compared across visual and auditory decisions, with the same precision as for the comparison of two trials within the same task. We discuss the possibility that confidence could serve as a common currency when describing our choices to ourselves and to others. PMID:26808061

  6. Confidence region estimation techniques for nonlinear regression :three case studies.

    SciTech Connect

    Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Sullivan, Sean P. (University of Texas, Austin, TX); Stucky-Mack, Nicholas J. (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA); Roberts, Randall Mark; Vugrin, Kay White

    2005-10-01

    This work focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F-test method, and a Log-Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well-test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Although the F-test and Log-Likelihood methods result in similar regions, there are differences between these regions and the regions generated by the linear approximation method for nonlinear problems. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed.

  7. Does mood influence the realism of confidence judgments?

    PubMed

    Allwood, Carl Martin; Granhag, Pär Anders; Jonsson, Anna-Carin

    2002-07-01

    Previous research has shown that mood affects cognition, but the extent to which mood affects meta-cognitive judgments is a relatively over-looked issue. In the current study we investigated how mood influences the degree of realism in participants' confidence judgments (based on an episodic memory task). Using music and film in combination, we successfully induced an elated mood in half of the participants, but failed to induce a sad mood in the other half. In line with previous research, the participants in both conditions were overconfident in their judgments. However, and contrary to our prediction, our data indicated that there was no difference in the realism of the confidence between the conditions. When relating this result to previous research, our conclusion is that there is no, or very little, influence of mood of moderate intensity on the realism of confidence judgments.

  8. Fast and Accurate Construction of Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

    PubMed

    Schweiger, Regev; Kaufman, Shachar; Laaksonen, Reijo; Kleber, Marcus E; März, Winfried; Eskin, Eleazar; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

    2016-06-01

    Estimation of heritability is fundamental in genetic studies. Recently, heritability estimation using linear mixed models (LMMs) has gained popularity because these estimates can be obtained from unrelated individuals collected in genome-wide association studies. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. Existing methods for the construction of confidence intervals and estimators of SEs for REML rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals. Here, we show that the estimation of confidence intervals by state-of-the-art methods is inaccurate, especially when the true heritability is relatively low or relatively high. We further show that these inaccuracies occur in datasets including thousands of individuals. Such biases are present, for example, in estimates of heritability of gene expression in the Genotype-Tissue Expression project and of lipid profiles in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study. We also show that often the probability that the genetic component is estimated as 0 is high even when the true heritability is bounded away from 0, emphasizing the need for accurate confidence intervals. We propose a computationally efficient method, ALBI (accurate LMM-based heritability bootstrap confidence intervals), for estimating the distribution of the heritability estimator and for constructing accurate confidence intervals. Our method can be used as an add-on to existing methods for estimating heritability and variance components, such as GCTA, FaST-LMM, GEMMA, or EMMAX. PMID:27259052

  9. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  10. Mars Balance Challenge

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Challenge is to develop ideas for how NASA can turn available entry, descent, and landing balance mass on a future Mars mission into a scientific or technological payload. Proposed concepts sho...

  11. The Balancing Act

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, Kimberly M.

    2008-05-01

    This essay is being proposed as part of a book titled: "Motherhood: The Elephant in the Laboratory." It offers professional and personal advice on how to balance working in the research field with a family life.

  12. Posttraumatic balance disorders.

    PubMed

    Hoffer, Michael E; Balough, Ben J; Gottshall, Kim R

    2007-01-01

    Head trauma is being more frequently recognized as a causative agent in balance disorders. Most of the published literature examining traumatic brain injury (TBI) after head trauma has focused on short-term prognostic indicators and neurocognitive disorders. Few data are available to guide those individuals who see patients with balance disorders secondary to TBI. Our group has previously examined balance disorders after mild head trauma. In this study, we study all classes of head trauma. We provide a classification system that is useful in the diagnosis and management of balance disorders after head trauma and we examine treatment outcomes. As dizziness is one of the most common outcomes of TBI, it is essential that those who study and treat dizziness be familiar with this subject. PMID:17691667

  13. Balance Function Disorders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Researchers at the Balance Function Laboratory and Clinic at the Minneapolis (MN) Neuroscience Institute on the Abbot Northwestern Hospital Campus are using a rotational chair (technically a "sinusoidal harmonic acceleration system") originally developed by NASA to investigate vestibular (inner ear) function in weightlessness to diagnose and treat patients with balance function disorders. Manufactured by ICS Medical Corporation, Schaumberg, IL, the chair system turns a patient and monitors his or her responses to rotational stimulation.

  14. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-01

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  15. Including "evidentiary balance" in news media coverage of vaccine risk.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Christopher E; Dixon, Graham N; Holton, Avery; McKeever, Brooke Weberling

    2015-01-01

    Journalists communicating risk-related uncertainty must accurately convey scientific evidence supporting particular conclusions. Scholars have explored how "balanced" coverage of opposing risk claims shapes uncertainty judgments. In situations where a preponderance of evidence points to a particular conclusion, balanced coverage reduces confidence in such a consensus and heightens uncertainty about whether a risk exists. Using the autism-vaccine controversy as a case study, we describe how journalists can cover multiple sides of an issue and provide insight into where the strength of evidence lies by focusing on "evidentiary balance." Our results suggest that evidentiary balance shapes perceived certainty that vaccines are safe, effective, and not linked to autism through the mediating role of a perception that scientists are divided about whether a link exists. Deference toward science, moreover, moderates these relationships under certain conditions. We discuss implications for journalism practice and risk communication. PMID:25010352

  16. Including "evidentiary balance" in news media coverage of vaccine risk.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Christopher E; Dixon, Graham N; Holton, Avery; McKeever, Brooke Weberling

    2015-01-01

    Journalists communicating risk-related uncertainty must accurately convey scientific evidence supporting particular conclusions. Scholars have explored how "balanced" coverage of opposing risk claims shapes uncertainty judgments. In situations where a preponderance of evidence points to a particular conclusion, balanced coverage reduces confidence in such a consensus and heightens uncertainty about whether a risk exists. Using the autism-vaccine controversy as a case study, we describe how journalists can cover multiple sides of an issue and provide insight into where the strength of evidence lies by focusing on "evidentiary balance." Our results suggest that evidentiary balance shapes perceived certainty that vaccines are safe, effective, and not linked to autism through the mediating role of a perception that scientists are divided about whether a link exists. Deference toward science, moreover, moderates these relationships under certain conditions. We discuss implications for journalism practice and risk communication.

  17. Watt and joule balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Ian A.

    2014-04-01

    The time is fast approaching when the SI unit of mass will cease to be based on a single material artefact and will instead be based upon the defined value of a fundamental constant—the Planck constant—h . This change requires that techniques exist both to determine the appropriate value to be assigned to the constant, and to measure mass in terms of the redefined unit. It is important to ensure that these techniques are accurate and reliable to allow full advantage to be taken of the stability and universality provided by the new definition and to guarantee the continuity of the world's mass measurements, which can affect the measurement of many other quantities such as energy and force. Up to now, efforts to provide the basis for such a redefinition of the kilogram were mainly concerned with resolving the discrepancies between individual implementations of the two principal techniques: the x-ray crystal density (XRCD) method [1] and the watt and joule balance methods which are the subject of this special issue. The first three papers report results from the NRC and NIST watt balance groups and the NIM joule balance group. The result from the NRC (formerly the NPL Mk II) watt balance is the first to be reported with a relative standard uncertainty below 2 × 10-8 and the NIST result has a relative standard uncertainty below 5 × 10-8. Both results are shown in figure 1 along with some previous results; the result from the NIM group is not shown on the plot but has a relative uncertainty of 8.9 × 10-6 and is consistent with all the results shown. The Consultative Committee for Mass and Related Quantities (CCM) in its meeting in 2013 produced a resolution [2] which set out the requirements for the number, type and quality of results intended to support the redefinition of the kilogram and required that there should be agreement between them. These results from NRC, NIST and the IAC may be considered to meet these requirements and are likely to be widely debated

  18. Dealing confidently with IRS, Part I: Preparing for IRS audits.

    PubMed

    Holub, S F; Walker, S R

    1978-10-01

    With the IRS apparently making health care institutions the focus of a nationwide audit emphasis, hospital administrators will want to prepare themselves for confident handling of audits. Four types of audit procedures are explained, suggestions are made for getting a hospital ready for an audit, and strategies are suggested for maintaining control over the audit's progress.

  19. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    PubMed

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  20. Analyzing Student Confidence in Classroom Voting with Multiple Choice Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ann; Storm, Christopher; VonEpps, Lahna

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present results of a recent study in which students voted on multiple choice questions in mathematics courses of varying levels. Students used clickers to select the best answer among the choices given; in addition, they were also asked whether they were confident in their answer. In this paper we analyze data…

  1. Exact Confidence Intervals in the Presence of Interference

    PubMed Central

    Rigdon, Joseph; Hudgens, Michael G.

    2015-01-01

    For two-stage randomized experiments assuming partial interference, exact confidence intervals are proposed for treatment effects on a binary outcome. Empirical studies demonstrate the new intervals have narrower width than previously proposed exact intervals based on the Hoeffding inequality. PMID:26190877

  2. Confidence Intervals for Gamma-Family Measures of Ordinal Association

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Woods, Carol M.

    2007-01-01

    This research focused on confidence intervals (CIs) for 10 measures of monotonic association between ordinal variables. Standard errors (SEs) were also reviewed because more than 1 formula was available per index. For 5 indices, an element of the formula used to compute an SE is given that is apparently new. CIs computed with different SEs were…

  3. Unexpected arousal modulates the influence of sensory noise on confidence

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Micah; Frank, Darya; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Fardo, Francesca; Winston, Joel S; Hauser, Tobias U; Rees, Geraint

    2016-01-01

    Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001 PMID:27776633

  4. The Dark and Bloody Mystery: Building Basic Writers' Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sledd, Robert

    While the roots of students' fear of writing go deep, students fear most the surface of writing. They fear that a person's language indicates the state not only of the mind but of the soul--thus their writing can make them look stupid and morally depraved. This fear of error and lack of confidence prevent students from developing a command of the…

  5. Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belia, Sarah; Fidler, Fiona; Williams, Jennifer; Cumming, Geoff

    2005-01-01

    Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p…

  6. Utility of de-escalatory confidence-building measures

    SciTech Connect

    Nation, J.

    1989-06-01

    This paper evaluates the utility of specific confidence-building de-escalatory measures and pays special attention to the evaluation of measures which place restrictions on or establish procedures for strategic forces. Some measures appear more promising than others. Potentially useful confidence-building measures largely satisfy defined criteria and include the phased return of strategic nuclear forces to peacetime bases and operations, the termination of interference with communications and NTMs (National Technical Means) and the termination of civil defense preparations. Less-promising CBMs include the standing down of supplemental early warning systems, the establishment of SSBN keep-out zones, and decreases in bomber alert rates. Establishment of SSBN keep-out zones and reduction in bomber rates are difficult to verify, while the standing-down of early warning systems provides little benefit at potentially large costs. Particular confidence-building measures (CBMs) may be most useful in building superpower confidence at specific points in the crisis termination phase. For example, a decrease in strategic bomber alert rates may provide some decrease in perception of the likelihood of war, but its potential costs, particularly in increasing bomber vulnerability, may limit its utility and implementation to the final crisis stages when the risks of re-escalation and surprise attack are lower.

  7. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  8. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  9. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  10. Using Confidence as Feedback in Multi-Sized Learning Environments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hench, Thomas L.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the use of existing confidence and performance data to provide feedback by first demonstrating the data's fit to a simple linear model. The paper continues by showing how the model's use as a benchmark provides feedback to allow current or future students to infer either the difficulty or the degree of under or over…

  11. Highly Confident Wrong Answering--And How to Detect It.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yule, George

    1988-01-01

    A Confidence-rating scale accompanying answers on a listening test helps distinguish between learners who select answers based on effective self-monitoring and those whose answers are based on poor self-monitoring. The latter are more likely to do so subsequently as well. Test items and a rating scale are illustrated. (Author/LMO)

  12. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  13. Building and Encouraging Confidence and Creativity in Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Lynnette J.

    The focus of this study is an eight-week science enrichment mentorship program for elementary and middle school girls (ages 8 to 13) at Coleson Village, a public housing community, in an urban area of western Washington. The goal of the program was to build confidence and encourage creativity as the participants discovered themselves as competent…

  14. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  15. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  16. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  17. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  18. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  19. Hypercorrection of high confidence errors in lexical representations.

    PubMed

    Iwaki, Nobuyoshi; Matsushima, Hiroko; Kodaira, Kazumasa

    2013-08-01

    Memory errors associated with higher confidence are more likely to be corrected than errors made with lower confidence, a phenomenon called the hypercorrection effect. This study investigated whether the hypercorrection effect occurs with phonological information of lexical representations. In Experiment 1, 15 participants performed a Japanese Kanji word-reading task, in which the words had several possible pronunciations. In the initial task, participants were required to read aloud each word and indicate their confidence in their response; this was followed by receipt of visual feedback of the correct response. A hypercorrection effect was observed, indicating generality of this effect beyond previous observations in memories based upon semantic or episodic representations. This effect was replicated in Experiment 2, in which 40 participants performed the same task as in Experiment 1. When the participant's ratings of the practical value of the words were controlled, a partial correlation between confidence and likelihood of later correcting the initial mistaken response was reduced. This suggests that the hypercorrection effect may be partially caused by an individual's recognition of the practical value of reading the words correctly. PMID:24422352

  20. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  1. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  2. Robust Confidence Interval for a Ratio of Standard Deviations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonett, Douglas G.

    2006-01-01

    Comparing variability of test scores across alternate forms, test conditions, or subpopulations is a fundamental problem in psychometrics. A confidence interval for a ratio of standard deviations is proposed that performs as well as the classic method with normal distributions and performs dramatically better with nonnormal distributions. A simple…

  3. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  4. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  5. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  6. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  7. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  8. Hypercorrection of high confidence errors in lexical representations.

    PubMed

    Iwaki, Nobuyoshi; Matsushima, Hiroko; Kodaira, Kazumasa

    2013-08-01

    Memory errors associated with higher confidence are more likely to be corrected than errors made with lower confidence, a phenomenon called the hypercorrection effect. This study investigated whether the hypercorrection effect occurs with phonological information of lexical representations. In Experiment 1, 15 participants performed a Japanese Kanji word-reading task, in which the words had several possible pronunciations. In the initial task, participants were required to read aloud each word and indicate their confidence in their response; this was followed by receipt of visual feedback of the correct response. A hypercorrection effect was observed, indicating generality of this effect beyond previous observations in memories based upon semantic or episodic representations. This effect was replicated in Experiment 2, in which 40 participants performed the same task as in Experiment 1. When the participant's ratings of the practical value of the words were controlled, a partial correlation between confidence and likelihood of later correcting the initial mistaken response was reduced. This suggests that the hypercorrection effect may be partially caused by an individual's recognition of the practical value of reading the words correctly.

  9. Multiple Confidence Estimates as Indices of Eyewitness Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauer, James D.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated.…

  10. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  11. Building Confident Teachers: Preservice Physical Education Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hand, Karen E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding teachers' perceptions of their abilities across a variety of teaching strategies can provide insight for understanding teaching effectiveness and program review. Teaching efficacy reflects the degrees of confidence individuals have in their ability to successfully perform specific teaching proficiencies (Bandura, 1986). Additional…

  12. Does Students' Confidence in Their Ability in Mathematics Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parsons, Sarah; Croft, Tony; Harrison, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Research was conducted into first year engineering students' learning of mathematics in a university college during 2005-2007. The aims were to understand better students' confidences and explore which factors affected performance and how these were inter-related. Questionnaires were administered which posed questions regarding previous…

  13. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  14. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  15. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  16. Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2006-01-01

    Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population effect size…

  17. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  18. Knowledge Surveys in General Chemistry: Confidence, Overconfidence, and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Priscilla; Volckmann, David

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge surveys have been used in a number of fields to assess changes in students' understanding of their own learning and to assist students in review. This study compares metacognitive confidence ratings of students faced with problems on the surveys with their actual knowledge as shown on the final exams in two courses of general chemistry…

  19. Locus of Control and Perceived Confidence in Problem Solving Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Barry L.; Kilmann, Peter R.

    1975-01-01

    Butterfield found that internal Ss tended to make more constructive responses to frustration-type situations than did extrenal Ss. Therefore, this study predicted that internal Ss would rate themselves as more confident with regard to problem-solving abilities than would external Ss. (Author)

  20. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  1. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL... during the transition period; (4) Joint training exercises; and (5) Observed inspections. (c) During...

  2. Cavendish Balance Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Bryan

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report for a project carried out to modify a manual commercial Cavendish Balance for automated use in cryostat. The scope of this project was to modify an off-the-shelf manually operated Cavendish Balance to allow for automated operation for periods of hours or days in cryostat. The purpose of this modification was to allow the balance to be used in the study of effects of superconducting materials on the local gravitational field strength to determine if the strength of gravitational fields can be reduced. A Cavendish Balance was chosen because it is a fairly simple piece of equipment for measuring gravity, one the least accurately known and least understood physical constants. The principle activities that occurred under this purchase order were: (1) All the components necessary to hold and automate the Cavendish Balance in a cryostat were designed. Engineering drawings were made of custom parts to be fabricated, other off-the-shelf parts were procured; (2) Software was written in LabView to control the automation process via a stepper motor controller and stepper motor, and to collect data from the balance during testing; (3)Software was written to take the data collected from the Cavendish Balance and reduce it to give a value for the gravitational constant; (4) The components of the system were assembled and fitted to a cryostat. Also the LabView hardware including the control computer, stepper motor driver, data collection boards, and necessary cabling were assembled; and (5) The system was operated for a number of periods, data collected, and reduced to give an average value for the gravitational constant.

  3. Improving maternal confidence in neonatal care through a checklist intervention.

    PubMed

    Radenkovic, Dina; Kotecha, Shrinal; Patel, Shreena; Lakhani, Anjali; Reimann-Dubbers, Katharina; Shah, Shreya; Jafree, Daniyal; Mitrasinovic, Stefan; Whitten, Melissa

    2016-01-01

    Previous qualitative studies suggest a lack of maternal confidence in care of their newborn child upon discharge into the community. This observation was supported by discussion with healthcare professionals and mothers at University College London Hospital (UCLH), highlighting specific areas of concern, in particular identifying and managing common neonatal presentations. The aim of this study was to design and introduce a checklist, addressing concerns, to increase maternal confidence in care of their newborn child. Based on market research, an 8-question checklist was designed, assessing maternal confidence in: feeding, jaundice, nappy care, rashes and dry skin, umbilical cord care, choking, bowel movements, and vomiting. Mothers were assessed as per the checklist, and received a score representative of their confidence in neonatal care. Mothers were followed up with a telephone call, and were assessed after a 7-day-period. Checklist scores before as compared to after the follow-up period were analysed. This process was repeated for three study cycles, with the placement of information posters on the ward prior to the second study cycle, and the stapling of the checklist to the mother's personal child health record (PCHR) prior to the third study cycle. A total of 99 mothers on the Maternity Care Unit at UCLH were enrolled in the study, and 92 were contactable after a 7-day period. During all study cycles, a significant increase in median checklist score was observed after, as compared to before, the 7-day follow up period (p < 0.001). The median difference in checklist score from baseline was greatest for the third cycle. These results suggest that introduction of a simple checklist can be successfully utilised to improve confidence of mothers in being able to care for their newborn child. Further investigation is indicated, but this intervention has the potential for routine application in postnatal care. PMID:27335642

  4. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    PubMed Central

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  5. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phenotypes and balance impairment

    PubMed Central

    Voica, Alina Sorina; Oancea, Cristian; Tudorache, Emanuela; Crisan, Alexandru F; Fira-Mladinescu, Ovidiu; Tudorache, Voicu; Timar, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    Background/objective Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory disease that results in airflow limitation and respiratory distress, also having many nonrespiratory manifestations that affect both function and mobility. Preliminary evidence suggests that balance deficits constitute an important secondary impairment in individuals with COPD. Our objective was to investigate balance performance in two groups of COPD patients with different body compositions and to observe which of these groups are more likely to experience falls in the future. Methods We included 27 stable COPD patients and 17 healthy individuals who performed a series of balance tests. The COPD patients were divided in two groups: emphysematous and bronchitic. Patients completed the activities balance confidence scale and the COPD assessment test questionnaire and afterward performed the Berg Balance Scale, timed up and go, single leg stance and 6-minute walking distance test. We analyzed the differences in the balance tests between the studied groups. Results Bronchitic COPD was associated with a decreased value when compared to emphysematous COPD for the following variables: single leg stance (8.7 vs 15.6; P<0.001) and activities balance confidence (53.2 vs 74.2; P=0.001). Bronchitic COPD patients had a significantly higher value of timed up and go test compared to patients with emphysematous COPD (14.7 vs 12.8; P=0.001). Conclusion Patients with COPD have a higher balance impairment than their healthy peers. Moreover, we observed that the bronchitic COPD phenotype is more likely to experience falls compared to the emphysematous phenotype. PMID:27199555

  6. Identifying Dynamically Induced Variability in Glacier Mass-Balance Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christian, J. E.; Siler, N.; Koutnik, M. R.; Roe, G.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier mass-balance (i.e., accumulation vs. ablation) provides a direct indicator of a glacier's relationship with climate. However, mass-balance records contain noise due to internal climate variability (i.e., from stochastic fluctuations in large-scale atmospheric circulation), which can obscure or bias trends in these relatively short timeseries. This presents a challenge in correctly identifying the signature of anthropogenic change. "Dynamical adjustment" is a technique that identifies patterns of variance shared between a climate timeseries of interest (e.g., mass-balance) and independent "predictor" variables associated with large-scale circulation (e.g., Sea Level Pressure, SLP, or Sea Surface Temperature, SST). Extracting the component of variance due to internal variability leaves a residual timeseries for which trends can more confidently be attributed to external forcing. We apply dynamical adjustments based on Partial Least Squares Regression to mass-balance records from South Cascade Glacier in Washington State and Wolverine and Gulkana Glaciers in Alaska, independently analyzing seasonal balance records to assess the dynamical influences on winter accumulation and summer ablation. Seasonally averaged North Pacific SLP and SST fields perform comparably as predictor variables, explaining 50-60% of the variance in winter balance and 30-40% of variance in summer balance for South Cascade and Wolverine Glaciers. Gulkana glacier, located further inland than the other two glaciers, is less closely linked to North Pacific climate variability, with the predictors explaining roughly one-third of variance in its winter and summer balance. We analyze the significance of linear trends in the raw and adjusted mass-balance records, and find that for all three glaciers, a) summer balance shows a statistically significant downward trend that is not substantially altered when dynamically induced variability is removed, and b) winter balance shows no statistically

  7. A Wii Bit of Fun: A Novel Platform to Deliver Effective Balance Training to Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Merriman, Niamh A.; Young, William R.; Newell, Fiona N.; Craig, Cathy

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: Falls and fall-related injuries are symptomatic of an aging population. This study aimed to design, develop, and deliver a novel method of balance training, using an interactive game-based system to promote engagement, with the inclusion of older adults at both high and low risk of experiencing a fall. Study Design: Eighty-two older adults (65 years of age and older) were recruited from sheltered accommodation and local activity groups. Forty volunteers were randomly selected and received 5 weeks of balance game training (5 males, 35 females; mean, 77.18 ± 6.59 years), whereas the remaining control participants recorded levels of physical activity (20 males, 22 females; mean, 76.62 ± 7.28 years). The effect of balance game training was measured on levels of functional balance and balance confidence in individuals with and without quantifiable balance impairments. Results: Balance game training had a significant effect on levels of functional balance and balance confidence (P < 0.05). This was further demonstrated in participants who were deemed at high risk of falls. The overall pattern of results suggests the training program is effective and suitable for individuals at all levels of ability and may therefore play a role in reducing the risk of falls. Conclusions: Commercial hardware can be modified to deliver engaging methods of effective balance assessment and training for the older population. PMID:26469308

  8. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  9. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    PubMed

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  10. The cryogenic balance design and balance calibration methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewald, B.; Polanski, L.; Graewe, E.

    1992-07-01

    The current status of a program aimed at the development of a cryogenic balance for the European Transonic Wind Tunnel is reviewed. In particular, attention is given to the cryogenic balance design philosophy, mechanical balance design, reliability and accuracy, cryogenic balance calibration concept, and the concept of an automatic calibration machine. It is shown that the use of the automatic calibration machine will improve the accuracy of calibration while reducing the man power and time required for balance calibration.

  11. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  12. Rotary and Magnus balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malcolm, G. N.

    1981-01-01

    Two wind tunnel techniques for determining part of the aerodynamic information required to describe the dynamic bahavior of various types of vehicles in flight are described. Force and moment measurements are determined with a rotary-balance apparatus in a coning motion and with a Magnus balance in a high-speed spinning motion. Coning motion is pertinent to both aircraft and missiles, and spinning is important for spin stabilized missiles. Basic principles of both techniques are described, and specific examples of each type of apparatus are presented. Typical experimental results are also discussed.

  13. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    SciTech Connect

    Hendrickson, B.; Leland, R.

    1993-01-01

    We describe an algorithm for the static load balancing of scientific computations that generalizes and improves upon spectral bisection. Through a novel use of multiple eigenvectors, our new spectral algorithm can divide a computation into 4 or 8 pieces at once. These multidimensional spectral partitioning algorithms generate balanced partitions that have lower communication overhead and are less expensive to compute than those produced by spectral bisection. In addition, they automatically work to minimize message contention on a hypercube or mesh architecture. These spectral partitions are further improved by a multidimensional generalization of the Kernighan-Lin graph partitioning algorithm. Results on several computational grids are given and compared with other popular methods.

  14. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    PubMed

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings.

  15. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    PubMed Central

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  16. Avoiding nuclear war, Confidence-building measures for crisis stability

    SciTech Connect

    Borawski, J.; Goodby, J.E.

    1986-01-01

    Confidence-building measures (CBMs) may offer one way out of the contemporary arms control morass. Instead of focusing on limiting the number and types of weaponry, CBMs are designed to control how, when, where, and why military activities are employed. By clarifying military intentions and regulating the operations of military forces in times of both crisis and calm, CBMs can help diminish the opportunities for war arising from surprise attack or from miscalculation, accident, or failure of communication. This volume assembles CBM experts from government and academia to assess the utility of CBMs in a wide variety of areas. CONTENTS: Foreword; Prologue; Introduction; The World of CBMs; The Accidents Measures Agreement; Avoiding Incidents at Sea; The Stockholm CDE Conference; CBMs in the UN Setting; Soviet Views of CBMs; Beyond the Hotline: Controlling a Nuclear Crisis; CBMs for Stabilizing the Strategic Nuclear Competition; Risk Reduction and Crisis Prevention; An East-West Center for Military Cooperation; The Limits of Confidence.

  17. An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Alleen; Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

  18. Confidence judgments in children's and adults' event recall and suggestibility.

    PubMed

    Roebers, Claudia M

    2002-11-01

    The present work investigated the role of children's and adults' metacognitive monitoring and control processes for unbiased event recall tasks and for suggestibility. Three studies were conducted in which children and adults indicated their degree of confidence that their answers were correct after (Study 1) and before (Study 2) answering either unbiased or misleading questions or (Study 3) forced-choice recognition questions. There was a strong tendency for overestimation of confidence regardless of age and question format. However, children did not lack the principal metacognitive competencies when these questions were asked in a neutral interview. Under misleading questioning, in contrast, children's monitoring skills were seriously impaired. Within each age group, better metacognitive differentiation was positively associated with recall accuracy in the suggestive interview.

  19. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C

    2007-11-07

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  20. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C; LaFreniere, D; Macintosh, B; Doyon, R

    2008-06-02

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  1. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  2. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined. PMID:25691289

  3. Statistical analysis of synaptic transmission: model discrimination and confidence limits.

    PubMed Central

    Stricker, C; Redman, S; Daley, D

    1994-01-01

    Procedures for discriminating between competing statistical models of synaptic transmission, and for providing confidence limits on the parameters of these models, have been developed. These procedures were tested against simulated data and were used to analyze the fluctuations in synaptic currents evoked in hippocampal neurones. All models were fitted to data using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a maximum likelihood criterion. Competing models were evaluated using the log-likelihood ratio (Wilks statistic). When the competing models were not nested, Monte Carlo sampling of the model used as the null hypothesis (H0) provided density functions against which H0 and the alternate model (H1) were tested. The statistic for the log-likelihood ratio was determined from the fit of H0 and H1 to these probability densities. This statistic was used to determine the significance level at which H0 could be rejected for the original data. When the competing models were nested, log-likelihood ratios and the chi 2 statistic were used to determine the confidence level for rejection. Once the model that provided the best statistical fit to the data was identified, many estimates for the model parameters were calculated by resampling the original data. Bootstrap techniques were then used to obtain the confidence limits of these parameters. PMID:7948672

  4. Realism of confidence in sensory discrimination: the underconfidence phenomenon.

    PubMed

    Björkman, M; Juslin, P; Winman, A

    1993-07-01

    This paper documents a very pervasive underconfidence bias in the area of sensory discrimination. In order to account for this phenomenon, a subjective distance theory of confidence in sensory discrimination is proposed. This theory, based on the law of comparative judgment and the assumption of confidence as an increasing function of the perceived distance between stimuli, predicts underconfidence--that is, that people should perform better than they express in their confidence assessments. Due to the fixed sensitivity of the sensory system, this underconfidence bias is practically impossible to avoid. The results of Experiment 1 confirmed the prediction of underconfidence with the help of present-day calibration methods and indicated a good quantitative fit of the theory. The results of Experiment 2 showed that prolonged experience of outcome feedback (160 trials) had no effect on underconfidence. It is concluded that the subjective distance theory provides a better explanation of the underconfidence phenomenon than do previous accounts in terms of subconscious processes. PMID:8351190

  5. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment. PMID:22238199

  6. Flood frequency analysis: Confidence interval estimation by test inversion bootstrapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schendel, Thomas; Thongwichian, Rossukon

    2015-09-01

    A common approach to estimate extreme flood events is the annual block maxima approach, where for each year the peak streamflow is determined and a distribution (usually the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)) is fitted to this series of maxima. Eventually this distribution is used to estimate the return level for a defined return period. However, due to the finite sample size, the estimated return levels are associated with a range of uncertainity, usually expressed via confidence intervals. Previous publications have shown that existing bootstrapping methods for estimating the confidence intervals of the GEV yield too narrow estimates of these uncertainty ranges. Therefore, we present in this article a novel approach based on the less known test inversion bootstrapping, which we adapted especially for complex quantities like the return level. The reliability of this approach is studied and its performance is compared to other bootstrapping methods as well as the Profile Likelihood technique. It is shown that the new approach improves significantly the coverage of confidence intervals compared to other bootstrapping methods and for small sample sizes should even be favoured over the Profile Likelihood.

  7. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times

    PubMed Central

    Kahana, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as ‘old’ and ‘new’ in tests of recognition memory or ‘present’ versus ‘absent’ in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  8. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  9. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  10. Maintaining an Environmental Balance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1976

    1976-01-01

    A recent conference of the National Environmental Development Association focused on the concepts of environment, energy and economy and underscored the necessity for balancing the critical needs embodied in these issues. Topics discussed included: nuclear energy and wastes, water pollution control, federal regulations, environmental technology…

  11. Balancing Family and Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yahnke, Sally; And Others

    The purpose of this monograph is to present a series of activities designed to teach strategies needed for effectively managing the multiple responsibilities of family and work. The guide contains 11 lesson plans dealing with balancing family and work that can be used in any home economics class, from middle school through college. The lesson…

  12. A Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Tamika; Mobley, Mary; Huttenlock, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    It's the season for the job hunt, whether one is looking for their first job or taking the next step along their career path. This article presents first-person accounts to see how teachers balance the rewards and challenges of working in different types of schools. Tamica Lewis, a third-grade teacher, states that faculty at her school is…

  13. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    DOEpatents

    Hendrickson, Bruce A.; Leland, Robert W.

    1996-12-24

    A method of and apparatus for graph partitioning involving the use of a plurality of eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix of the graph of the problem for which load balancing is desired. The invention is particularly useful for optimizing parallel computer processing of a problem and for minimizing total pathway lengths of integrated circuits in the design stage.

  14. Finding a Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Milton A.; Gordon, Margaret F.

    1996-01-01

    New college presidents are inundated with requests for their time, and their private life is often sacrificed. Each administrator must decide what is the appropriate balance among various aspects of his/her position. Physical separation of public and private lives is essential, and the role of the spouse, who may have other professional…

  15. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  16. Basic Confidence Predictors of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paulsen, Alisa M.; Betz, Nancy E.

    2004-01-01

    The extent to which Basic Confidence Scales predicted career decision-making self-efficacy was studied in a sample of 627 undergraduate students. Six confidence variables accounted for 49% of the variance in career decision-making self-efficacy. Leadership confidence was the most important, but confidence in science, mathematics, writing, using…

  17. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  18. Confidence about vaccines in the United States: understanding parents' perceptions.

    PubMed

    Kennedy, Allison; Lavail, Katherine; Nowak, Glen; Basket, Michelle; Landry, Sarah

    2011-06-01

    The United States has made tremendous progress in using vaccines to prevent serious, often infectious, diseases. But concerns about such issues as vaccines' safety and the increasing complexity of immunization schedules have fostered doubts about the necessity of vaccinations. We investigated parents' confidence in childhood vaccines by reviewing recent survey data. We found that most parents--even those whose children receive all of the recommended vaccines--have questions, concerns, or misperceptions about them. We suggest ways to give parents the information they need and to keep the US national vaccination program a success.

  19. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  20. Role of Seismic Calibration as a Confidence-Building Measure

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, L A; Zucca, J JW S; Phillips, W S

    2000-07-20

    Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) address the political goal of alleviating compliance concerns raised by chemical explosions and the technical goal of calibrating the International Monitoring System (IMS; ref. Article IV, E, and Part 111 of the Protocol to the treaty). The term ''calibration'' only appears in the treaty associated with CBMs and On-Site Inspection and has different meanings in each case. This difference can be illustrated through the use of a simple, conceptual equation:

  1. Balancing innovation and evidence.

    PubMed

    Pilcher, Jobeth W

    2015-01-01

    Nurse educators are encouraged to use evidence to guide their teaching strategies. However, evidence is not always available. How can educators make decisions regarding strategies when data are limited or absent? Where do innovation and creativity fit? How can innovation be balanced with evidence? This article provides a discussion regarding other sources of evidence, such as extrapolations, theories and principles, and collective expertise. Readers are encouraged to review the options and then analyze how they might be applied to innovation in education.

  2. Simple Cell Balance Circuit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Steven D.; Byers, Jerry W.; Martin, James A.

    2012-01-01

    A method has been developed for continuous cell voltage balancing for rechargeable batteries (e.g. lithium ion batteries). A resistor divider chain is provided that generates a set of voltages representing the ideal cell voltage (the voltage of each cell should be as if the cells were perfectly balanced). An operational amplifier circuit with an added current buffer stage generates the ideal voltage with a very high degree of accuracy, using the concept of negative feedback. The ideal voltages are each connected to the corresponding cell through a current- limiting resistance. Over time, having the cell connected to the ideal voltage provides a balancing current that moves the cell voltage very close to that ideal level. In effect, it adjusts the current of each cell during charging, discharging, and standby periods to force the cell voltages to be equal to the ideal voltages generated by the resistor divider. The device also includes solid-state switches that disconnect the circuit from the battery so that it will not discharge the battery during storage. This solution requires relatively few parts and is, therefore, of lower cost and of increased reliability due to the fewer failure modes. Additionally, this design uses very little power. A preliminary model predicts a power usage of 0.18 W for an 8-cell battery. This approach is applicable to a wide range of battery capacities and voltages.

  3. Seismic offset balancing

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, C.P.; Beale, P.L.

    1994-01-01

    The ability to successfully predict lithology and fluid content from reflection seismic records using AVO techniques is contingent upon accurate pre-analysis conditioning of the seismic data. However, all too often, residual amplitude effects remain after the many offset-dependent processing steps are completed. Residual amplitude effects often represent a significant error when compared to the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) response that the authors are attempting to quantify. They propose a model-based, offset-dependent amplitude balancing method that attempts to correct for these residuals and other errors due to sub-optimal processing. Seismic offset balancing attempts to quantify the relationship between the offset response of back-ground seismic reflections and corresponding theoretical predictions for average lithologic interfaces thought to cause these background reflections. It is assumed that any deviation from the theoretical response is a result of residual processing phenomenon and/or suboptimal processing, and a simple offset-dependent scaling function is designed to correct for these differences. This function can then be applied to seismic data over both prospective and nonprospective zones within an area where the theoretical values are appropriate and the seismic characteristics are consistent. A conservative application of the above procedure results in an AVO response over both gas sands and wet sands that is much closer to theoretically expected values. A case history from the Gulf of Mexico Flexure Trend is presented as an example to demonstrate the offset balancing technique.

  4. Gait and balance disorders.

    PubMed

    Masdeu, Joseph C

    2016-01-01

    This chapter focuses on one of the most common types of neurologic disorders: altered walking. Walking impairment often reflects disease of the neurologic structures mediating gait, balance or, most often, both. These structures are distributed along the neuraxis. For this reason, this chapter is introduced by a brief description of the neurobiologic underpinning of walking, stressing information that is critical for imaging, namely, the anatomic representation of gait and balance mechanisms. This background is essential not only in order to direct the relevant imaging tools to the regions more likely to be affected but also to interpret correctly imaging findings that may not be related to the walking deficit object of clinical study. The chapter closes with a discussion on how to image some of the most frequent etiologies causing gait or balance impairment. However, it focuses on syndromes not already discussed in other chapters of this volume, such as Parkinson's disease and other movement disorders, already discussed in Chapter 48, or cerebellar ataxia, in Chapter 23, in the previous volume. As regards vascular disease, the spastic hemiplegia most characteristic of brain disease needs little discussion, while the less well-understood effects of microvascular disease are extensively reviewed here, together with the imaging approach. PMID:27430451

  5. Applications of asymptotic confidence intervals with continuity corrections for asymmetric comparisons in noninferiority trials.

    PubMed

    Soulakova, Julia N; Bright, Brianna C

    2013-01-01

    A large-sample problem of illustrating noninferiority of an experimental treatment over a referent treatment for binary outcomes is considered. The methods of illustrating noninferiority involve constructing the lower two-sided confidence bound for the difference between binomial proportions corresponding to the experimental and referent treatments and comparing it with the negative value of the noninferiority margin. The three considered methods, Anbar, Falk-Koch, and Reduced Falk-Koch, handle the comparison in an asymmetric way, that is, only the referent proportion out of the two, experimental and referent, is directly involved in the expression for the variance of the difference between two sample proportions. Five continuity corrections (including zero) are considered with respect to each approach. The key properties of the corresponding methods are evaluated via simulations. First, the uncorrected two-sided confidence intervals can, potentially, have smaller coverage probability than the nominal level even for moderately large sample sizes, for example, 150 per group. Next, the 15 testing methods are discussed in terms of their Type I error rate and power. In the settings with a relatively small referent proportion (about 0.4 or smaller), the Anbar approach with Yates' continuity correction is recommended for balanced designs and the Falk-Koch method with Yates' correction is recommended for unbalanced designs. For relatively moderate (about 0.6) and large (about 0.8 or greater) referent proportion, the uncorrected Reduced Falk-Koch method is recommended, although in this case, all methods tend to be over-conservative. These results are expected to be used in the design stage of a noninferiority study when asymmetric comparisons are envisioned.

  6. A comparison of confidence interval methods for the intraclass correlation coefficient in cluster randomized trials.

    PubMed

    Ukoumunne, Obioha C

    2002-12-30

    This study compared different methods for assigning confidence intervals to the analysis of variance estimator of the intraclass correlation coefficient (rho). The context of the comparison was the use of rho to estimate the variance inflation factor when planning cluster randomized trials. The methods were compared using Monte Carlo simulations of unbalanced clustered data and data from a cluster randomized trial of an intervention to improve the management of asthma in a general practice setting. The coverage and precision of the intervals were compared for data with different numbers of clusters, mean numbers of subjects per cluster and underlying values of rho. The performance of the methods was also compared for data with Normal and non-Normally distributed cluster specific effects. Results of the simulations showed that methods based upon the variance ratio statistic provided greater coverage levels than those based upon large sample approximations to the standard error of rho. Searle's method provided close to nominal coverage for data with Normally distributed random effects. Adjusted versions of Searle's method to allow for lack of balance in the data generally did not improve upon it either in terms of coverage or precision. Analyses of the trial data, however, showed that limits provided by Thomas and Hultquist's method may differ from those of the other variance ratio statistic methods when the arithmetic mean differs markedly from the harmonic mean cluster size. The simulation results demonstrated that marked non-Normality in the cluster level random effects compromised the performance of all methods. Confidence intervals for the methods were generally wide relative to the underlying size of rho suggesting that there may be great uncertainty associated with sample size calculations for cluster trials where large clusters are randomized. Data from cluster based studies with sample sizes much larger than those typical of cluster randomized trials are

  7. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

  8. Nursing students' confidence in medication calculations predicts math exam performance.

    PubMed

    Andrew, Sharon; Salamonson, Yenna; Halcomb, Elizabeth J

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties, including predictive validity, of the newly-developed nursing self-efficacy for mathematics (NSE-Math). The NSE-Math is a 12 item scale that comprises items related to mathematic and arithmetic concepts underpinning medication calculations. The NSE-Math instrument was administered to second year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled in a nursing practice subject. Students' academic results for a compulsory medication calculation examination for this subject were collected. One-hundred and twelve students (73%) completed both the NSE-Math instrument and the drug calculation assessment task. The NSE-Math demonstrated two factors 'Confidence in application of mathematic concepts to nursing practice' and 'Confidence in arithmetic concepts' with 63.5% of variance explained. Cronbach alpha for the scale was 0.90. The NSE-Math demonstrated predictive validity with the medication calculation examination results (p=0.009). Psychometric testing suggests the NSE-Math is a valid measure of mathematics self-efficacy of second year nursing students.

  9. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    PubMed Central

    Bebu, Ionut; Luta, George; Mathew, Thomas; Agan, Brian K.

    2016-01-01

    For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates. PMID:27322305

  10. On Efficient Confidence Intervals for the Log-Normal Mean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chami, Peter; Antoine, Robin; Sahai, Ashok

    Data obtained in biomedical research is often skewed. Examples include the incubation period of diseases like HIV/AIDS and the survival times of cancer patients. Such data, especially when they are positive and skewed, is often modeled by the log-normal distribution. If this model holds, then the log transformation produces a normal distribution. We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the mean of the log-normal distribution. Several methods for doing this are known, including at least one estimator that performed better than Coxxs method for small sample sizes. We also construct a modified version of Coxxs method. Using simulation, we show that, when the sample size exceeds 30, it leads to confidence intervals that have good overall properties and are better than Coxxs method. More precisely, the actual coverage probability of our method is closer to the nominal coverage probability than is the case with Coxxs method. In addition, the new method is computationally much simpler than other well-known methods.

  11. Confidence measure and performance evaluation for HRRR-based classifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rago, Constantino; Zajic, Tim; Huff, Melvyn; Mehra, Raman K.; Mahler, Ronald P. S.; Noviskey, Michael J.

    2002-07-01

    The work presented here is a continuation of research first reported in Mahler, et. al. Our earlier efforts included integrating the Statistical Features algorithm with a Bayesian nonlinear filter, allowing simultaneous determination of target position, velocity, pose and type via maximum a posteriori estimation. We then considered three alternative classifiers: the first based on a principal component decomposition, the second on a linear discriminant approach, and the third on a wavelet representation. In addition, preliminary results were given with regards to assigning a measure of confidence to the output of the wavelet based classifier. In this paper we continue to address the problem of target classification based on high range resolution radar signatures. In particular, we examine the performance of a variant of the principal component based classifier as the number of principal components is varied. We have chosen to quantify the performance in terms of the Bhattacharyya distance. We also present further results regarding the assignment of confidence values to the output of the wavelet based classifier.

  12. Modernizing confidence-building measures for the Biological Weapons Convention.

    PubMed

    Koblentz, Gregory D; Chevrier, Marie Isabelle

    2011-09-01

    The Seventh Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2011 provides an opportunity to modernize the treaty to better address the challenges of the 21st century. The key to this modernization is to redesign the treaty's Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), the only formal mechanism for increasing transparency and demonstrating compliance with the treaty, to address changes in the global scientific, health, and security environments since the end of the Cold War. The scope of the CBMs should be expanded beyond state-run biological warfare programs to encompass a broader array of threats to global security, such as biological terrorism, laboratory accidents, dual-use research, and disease pandemics. Modernizing the CBM mechanism to take into account these new risks would extend the transparency-enhancing benefits of CBMs to a range of new and important topics, such as biosafety, laboratory biosecurity, and dual-use research oversight; make the CBMs and the treaty itself more relevant to the concerns and priorities of more states; and build on progress made during the recent series of intersessional meetings. To accomplish this, the CBMs need to be revised to shift their focus from hardware, the dual-use capabilities relevant to the treaty, to software, the political and legal institutions that govern the development and use of these capabilities. A more modern CBM mechanism should encourage greater participation in the confidence-building process, improve international cooperation against the full spectrum of biological risks, and promote the goal of universal membership in the treaty.

  13. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  14. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  15. Selection of hydronic balancing valves

    SciTech Connect

    Ahlgren, R.C.E.

    1998-10-01

    This paper describes the selection and setting of balance valves, which, when properly applied in the design of a hydronic system, will result in a balanced system, thus preventing over pumping without excessive energy costs.

  16. Assessment of postural balance function.

    PubMed

    Kostiukow, Anna; Rostkowska, Elzbieta; Samborski, Włodzimierz

    2009-01-01

    Postural balance is defined as the ability to stand unassisted without falling. Examination of the patient's postural balance function is a difficult diagnostic task. Most of the balance tests used in medicine provide incomplete information on this coordination ability of the human body. The aim of this study was to review methods of assessment of the patient's postural balance function, including various tests used in medical diagnostics centers. PMID:20698188

  17. Assessment of postural balance function.

    PubMed

    Kostiukow, Anna; Rostkowska, Elzbieta; Samborski, Włodzimierz

    2009-01-01

    Postural balance is defined as the ability to stand unassisted without falling. Examination of the patient's postural balance function is a difficult diagnostic task. Most of the balance tests used in medicine provide incomplete information on this coordination ability of the human body. The aim of this study was to review methods of assessment of the patient's postural balance function, including various tests used in medical diagnostics centers.

  18. More on Chemical Reaction Balancing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swinehart, D. F.

    1985-01-01

    A previous article stated that only the matrix method was powerful enough to balance a particular chemical equation. Shows how this equation can be balanced without using the matrix method. The approach taken involves writing partial mathematical reactions and redox half-reactions, and combining them to yield the final balanced reaction. (JN)

  19. Lesson "Balance in Nature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapanova, V.

    2012-04-01

    Lesson "Balance in Nature" This simulation game-lesson (Balance in Nature) gives an opportunity for the students to show creativity, work independently, and to create models and ideas. It creates future-oriented thought connected to their experience, allowing them to propose solutions for global problems and personal responsibility for their activities. The class is divided in two teams. Each team chooses questions. 1. Question: Pollution in the environment. 2. Question: Care for nature and climate. The teams work on the chosen tasks. They make drafts, notes and formulate their solutions on small pieces of paper, explaining the impact on nature and society. They express their points of view using many different opinions. This generates alternative thoughts and results in creative solutions. With the new knowledge and positive behaviour defined, everybody realizes that they can do something positive towards nature and climate problems and the importance of individuals for solving global problems is evident. Our main goal is to recover the ecological balance, and everybody explains his or her own well-grounded opinions. In this work process the students obtain knowledge, skills and more responsible behaviour. This process, based on his or her own experience, dialogue and teamwork, helps the participant's self-development. Making the model "human↔ nature" expresses how human activities impact the natural Earth and how these impacts in turn affect society. Taking personal responsibility, we can reduce global warming and help the Earth. By helping nature we help ourselves. Teacher: Veselina Boycheva-Chapanova " Saint Patriarch Evtimii" Scholl Str. "Ivan Vazov"-19 Plovdiv Bulgaria

  20. Balancing Computation and Experiment

    SciTech Connect

    Farber, Rob

    2007-04-01

    How do you know when the science being performed on a supercomputer reflects what actually occurs inside a test tube, or in real life? The answer can be stated simply enough: “run the model on the computer, get the result, and then perform an experiment to test the result”. The adage “easier said than done” truly applies – especially when the focus is on innovative science to benefit government and industry. The trick in this case is to find the right balance of science-driven computing integrated with experiment.

  1. Micromechanical Oscillating Mass Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Altemir, David A. (Inventor)

    1997-01-01

    A micromechanical oscillating mass balance and method adapted for measuring minute quantities of material deposited at a selected location, such as during a vapor deposition process. The invention comprises a vibratory composite beam which includes a dielectric layer sandwiched between two conductive layers. The beam is positioned in a magnetic field. An alternating current passes through one conductive layers, the beam oscillates, inducing an output current in the second conductive layer, which is analyzed to determine the resonant frequency of the beam. As material is deposited on the beam, the mass of the beam increases and the resonant frequency of the beam shifts, and the mass added is determined.

  2. Watt and joule balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Ian A.

    2014-04-01

    The time is fast approaching when the SI unit of mass will cease to be based on a single material artefact and will instead be based upon the defined value of a fundamental constant—the Planck constant—h . This change requires that techniques exist both to determine the appropriate value to be assigned to the constant, and to measure mass in terms of the redefined unit. It is important to ensure that these techniques are accurate and reliable to allow full advantage to be taken of the stability and universality provided by the new definition and to guarantee the continuity of the world's mass measurements, which can affect the measurement of many other quantities such as energy and force. Up to now, efforts to provide the basis for such a redefinition of the kilogram were mainly concerned with resolving the discrepancies between individual implementations of the two principal techniques: the x-ray crystal density (XRCD) method [1] and the watt and joule balance methods which are the subject of this special issue. The first three papers report results from the NRC and NIST watt balance groups and the NIM joule balance group. The result from the NRC (formerly the NPL Mk II) watt balance is the first to be reported with a relative standard uncertainty below 2 × 10-8 and the NIST result has a relative standard uncertainty below 5 × 10-8. Both results are shown in figure 1 along with some previous results; the result from the NIM group is not shown on the plot but has a relative uncertainty of 8.9 × 10-6 and is consistent with all the results shown. The Consultative Committee for Mass and Related Quantities (CCM) in its meeting in 2013 produced a resolution [2] which set out the requirements for the number, type and quality of results intended to support the redefinition of the kilogram and required that there should be agreement between them. These results from NRC, NIST and the IAC may be considered to meet these requirements and are likely to be widely debated

  3. A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence.

    PubMed

    van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2016-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy. PMID:26829590

  4. Self-confidence, gender and academic achievement of undergraduate nursing students.

    PubMed

    Kukulu, K; Korukcu, O; Ozdemir, Y; Bezci, A; Calik, C

    2013-04-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the self-confidence levels of nursing students and the factors related to such self-confidence. Data were obtained via a questionnaire for socio-demographic characteristics and a 'Self-Confidence Scale' prepared by the researchers. High self-confidence levels were noted in 78.6% of female students and 92.3% of male students. While 84.5% of second-year students had high self-confidence levels, this rate was 76% in fourth-year students. Female nursing students were significantly less self-confident than male students. Self-confidence should be nurtured in a caring nursing curriculum; however, there is a lack of clarity as to what confidence means, how it is perceived by students and what educators can do to instil self-confidence in nursing students.

  5. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-10

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  6. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    PubMed Central

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  7. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-06-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  8. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes.

    PubMed

    Francisco-Fernández, Mario; Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper.

  9. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGES

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  10. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  11. Improving Semi-Global Matching: Cost Aggregation and Confidence Measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Angelo, Pablo

    2016-06-01

    Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM) algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  12. Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crammn, Ruediger; Budnik, Frank

    2007-01-01

    The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

  13. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification

    PubMed Central

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  14. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  15. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. PMID:26828651

  16. Measuring Intuition: Nonconscious Emotional Information Boosts Decision Accuracy and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Lufityanto, Galang; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2016-05-01

    The long-held popular notion of intuition has garnered much attention both academically and popularly. Although most people agree that there is such a phenomenon as intuition, involving emotionally charged, rapid, unconscious processes, little compelling evidence supports this notion. Here, we introduce a technique in which subliminal emotional information is presented to subjects while they make fully conscious sensory decisions. Our behavioral and physiological data, along with evidence-accumulator models, show that nonconscious emotional information can boost accuracy and confidence in a concurrent emotion-free decision task, while also speeding up response times. Moreover, these effects were contingent on the specific predictive arrangement of the nonconscious emotional valence and motion direction in the decisional stimulus. A model that simultaneously accumulates evidence from both physiological skin conductance and conscious decisional information provides an accurate description of the data. These findings support the notion that nonconscious emotions can bias concurrent nonemotional behavior-a process of intuition.

  17. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    PubMed

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  18. Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.

  19. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    SciTech Connect

    Trucano, T.

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  20. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  1. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  2. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    PubMed

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date.

  3. Modernizing confidence-building measures for the Biological Weapons Convention.

    PubMed

    Koblentz, Gregory D; Chevrier, Marie Isabelle

    2011-09-01

    The Seventh Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2011 provides an opportunity to modernize the treaty to better address the challenges of the 21st century. The key to this modernization is to redesign the treaty's Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), the only formal mechanism for increasing transparency and demonstrating compliance with the treaty, to address changes in the global scientific, health, and security environments since the end of the Cold War. The scope of the CBMs should be expanded beyond state-run biological warfare programs to encompass a broader array of threats to global security, such as biological terrorism, laboratory accidents, dual-use research, and disease pandemics. Modernizing the CBM mechanism to take into account these new risks would extend the transparency-enhancing benefits of CBMs to a range of new and important topics, such as biosafety, laboratory biosecurity, and dual-use research oversight; make the CBMs and the treaty itself more relevant to the concerns and priorities of more states; and build on progress made during the recent series of intersessional meetings. To accomplish this, the CBMs need to be revised to shift their focus from hardware, the dual-use capabilities relevant to the treaty, to software, the political and legal institutions that govern the development and use of these capabilities. A more modern CBM mechanism should encourage greater participation in the confidence-building process, improve international cooperation against the full spectrum of biological risks, and promote the goal of universal membership in the treaty. PMID:21819226

  4. Resource Balancing Control Allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frost, Susan A.; Bodson, Marc

    2010-01-01

    Next generation aircraft with a large number of actuators will require advanced control allocation methods to compute the actuator commands needed to follow desired trajectories while respecting system constraints. Previously, algorithms were proposed to minimize the l1 or l2 norms of the tracking error and of the control effort. The paper discusses the alternative choice of using the l1 norm for minimization of the tracking error and a normalized l(infinity) norm, or sup norm, for minimization of the control effort. The algorithm computes the norm of the actuator deflections scaled by the actuator limits. Minimization of the control effort then translates into the minimization of the maximum actuator deflection as a percentage of its range of motion. The paper shows how the problem can be solved effectively by converting it into a linear program and solving it using a simplex algorithm. Properties of the algorithm are investigated through examples. In particular, the min-max criterion results in a type of resource balancing, where the resources are the control surfaces and the algorithm balances these resources to achieve the desired command. A study of the sensitivity of the algorithms to the data is presented, which shows that the normalized l(infinity) algorithm has the lowest sensitivity, although high sensitivities are observed whenever the limits of performance are reached.

  5. Balance ability and athletic performance.

    PubMed

    Hrysomallis, Con

    2011-03-01

    The relationship between balance ability and sport injury risk has been established in many cases, but the relationship between balance ability and athletic performance is less clear. This review compares the balance ability of athletes from different sports, determines if there is a difference in balance ability of athletes at different levels of competition within the same sport, determines the relationship of balance ability with performance measures and examines the influence of balance training on sport performance or motor skills. Based on the available data from cross-sectional studies, gymnasts tended to have the best balance ability, followed by soccer players, swimmers, active control subjects and then basketball players. Surprisingly, no studies were found that compared the balance ability of rifle shooters with other athletes. There were some sports, such as rifle shooting, soccer and golf, where elite athletes were found to have superior balance ability compared with their less proficient counterparts, but this was not found to be the case for alpine skiing, surfing and judo. Balance ability was shown to be significantly related to rifle shooting accuracy, archery shooting accuracy, ice hockey maximum skating speed and simulated luge start speed, but not for baseball pitching accuracy or snowboarding ranking points. Prospective studies have shown that the addition of a balance training component to the activities of recreationally active subjects or physical education students has resulted in improvements in vertical jump, agility, shuttle run and downhill slalom skiing. A proposed mechanism for the enhancement in motor skills from balance training is an increase in the rate of force development. There are limited data on the influence of balance training on motor skills of elite athletes. When the effectiveness of balance training was compared with resistance training, it was found that resistance training produced superior performance results for

  6. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F.

    2012-01-01

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  7. A comparison of several methods for the confidence intervals of negative binomial proportions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thong, Alfred Lim Sheng; Shan, Fam Pei

    2015-12-01

    This study focuses on the comparison of the performances of several approaches in constructing confidence interval of negative binomial proportions (single negative binomial proportion and the difference between two negative binomial proportions). After that, the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches in constructing confidence interval of negative binomial proportions are figured out. Performances of the approaches will be accessed by comparing their coverage probabilities and average lengths of confidence intervals. For the comparison of the performances of the approaches in single negative binomial proportion, Wald confidence interval (WCI-I), Agresti confidence interval (ACI-I), Wilson's Score confidence interval (WSCI-I) and Jeffrey confidence interval (JCI-I) are used. WSCI-I is the better approach for single negative binomial proportion in term of the average length of confidence intervals and average coverage probability. While for the comparison of the performances of the approaches in the difference between two negative binomial proportions, Wald confidence interval (WCI-II), Agresti confidence interval (ACI-II), Newcombe's Score confidence interval (NSCI-II), Jeffrey confidence interval (JCI-II) and Yule confidence interval (YCI-II) are used. Under different situations, a better approach has been discussed and recommended. There will be different approach that performs better for the coverage probability.

  8. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F

    2012-05-19

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty.

  9. Confidence-weighted testing: a descriptive study of Japanese nursing students.

    PubMed

    Aoyama, Michiyo; Tamura, Yumi; Ishikawa, Yuichi; Yada, Mamiko; Miyawaki, Ikuko

    2013-12-01

    Nurses' lack of self-confidence in their own nursing skills is one of the main reasons that novice nurses leave the profession in Japan. Nursing education must help students gain self-confidence in their nursing skills in order to allow more novice nurses to stay in their profession. In this study, we evaluated whether confidence-weighted testing feedback actually improves students' self-confidence in their basic nursing skills. Confidence-weighted testing, which provides quantifiable results, might allow students to objectively assess their skill-related self-confidence. Sixty-seven first-year nursing students took two confidence-rating examinations on the knowledge and practical skills related to pulse and blood pressure measurement of immobile patients. Feedback was given to each participant after the first examination. After the first examination with confidence-weighted testing feedback, students showed higher levels of self-confidence in their practical skills, but not in knowledge. The improvement of self-confidence in practical skills suggests that there is still room for improvement in confidence-weighted testing feedback in knowledge. Further research is required to identify more effective feedback methods to improve students' self-confidence levels in knowledge using the results of confidence-weighted testing.

  10. Energy balance climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

  11. Skin friction balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ping, Tcheng (Inventor); Supplee, Frank H., Jr. (Inventor)

    1989-01-01

    A skin friction balance uses a parallel linkage mechanism to avoid inaccuracies in skin friction measurement attributable to off-center normal forces. The parallel linkage mechanism includes a stationary plate mounted in a cage, and an upper and lower movable plate which are linked to each other and to the stationary plate throught three vertical links. Flexure pivots are provided for pivotally connecting the links and the plates. A sensing element connected to the upper plate moves in response to skin friction, and the lower plate moves in the opposite direction of the upper plate. A force motor maintains a null position of the sensing element by exerting a restoring force in response to a signal generated by a linear variable differential transformer (LVDT).

  12. Balancing Family and Career

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andam, Aba Bentil; Dawson, Silvina Ponce; Horton, K. Renee; Sandow, Barbara

    2005-10-01

    In essentially all countries, responsibilities for child care, cooking, cleaning, and other homemaking tasks fall predominantly on the wife and mother. In addition, the childbearing years come during the period when a physicist must study hard, work long hours on research, and take temporary positions, often abroad. Thus, balancing family and career has long been one of the major barriers to women's participation in science and engineering fields, including physics. While many young women believe that they must choose between having children and having a science career, the fact is that the majority of women physicists in both developing and developed countries have successfully done both. This paper summarizes some ideas and recommendations raised in discussions, especially focused on easing the challenges of having children while in temporary jobs, returning to physics after a career break, the need for "family-friendly" working conditions, and the dual-career problem facing couples where both are scientists.

  13. Energy balance in peridynamics.

    SciTech Connect

    Lehoucq, Richard B.; Silling, Stewart Andrew

    2010-09-01

    The peridynamic model of solid mechanics treats internal forces within a continuum through interactions across finite distances. These forces are determined through a constitutive model that, in the case of an elastic material, permits the strain energy density at a point to depend on the collective deformation of all the material within some finite distance of it. The forces between points are evaluated from the Frechet derivative of this strain energy density with respect to the deformation map. The resulting equation of motion is an integro-differential equation written in terms of these interparticle forces, rather than the traditional stress tensor field. Recent work on peridynamics has elucidated the energy balance in the presence of these long-range forces. We have derived the appropriate analogue of stress power, called absorbed power, that leads to a satisfactory definition of internal energy. This internal energy is additive, allowing us to meaningfully define an internal energy density field in the body. An expression for the local first law of thermodynamics within peridynamics combines this mechanical component, the absorbed power, with heat transport. The global statement of the energy balance over a subregion can be expressed in a form in which the mechanical and thermal terms contain only interactions between the interior of the subregion and the exterior, in a form anticipated by Noll in 1955. The local form of this first law within peridynamics, coupled with the second law as expressed in the Clausius-Duhem inequality, is amenable to the Coleman-Noll procedure for deriving restrictions on the constitutive model for thermomechanical response. Using an idea suggested by Fried in the context of systems of discrete particles, this procedure leads to a dissipation inequality for peridynamics that has a surprising form. It also leads to a thermodynamically consistent way to treat damage within the theory, shedding light on how damage, including the

  14. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  15. Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

    PubMed Central

    Alden, Kieran; Andrews, Paul S.; Polack, Fiona A. C.; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark C.; Timmis, Jon

    2015-01-01

    The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions. PMID:25589574

  16. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    PubMed

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  17. Enabling high confidence detections of gravitational-wave bursts

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Littenberg, Tyson B.; Kanner, Jonah B.; Cornish, Neil J.; Millhouse, Margaret

    2016-08-01

    Extracting astrophysical information from gravitational-wave detections is a well-posed problem and thoroughly studied when detailed models for the waveforms are available. However, one motivation for the field of gravitational-wave astronomy is the potential for new discoveries. Recognizing and characterizing unanticipated signals requires data analysis techniques which do not depend on theoretical predictions for the gravitational waveform. Past searches for short-duration unmodeled gravitational-wave signals have been hampered by transient noise artifacts, or "glitches," in the detectors. We have put forth the BayesWave algorithm to differentiate between generic gravitational-wave transients and glitches, and to provide robust waveform reconstruction and characterization of the astrophysical signals. Here we study BayesWave's capabilities for rejecting glitches while assigning high confidence to detection candidates through analytic approximations to the Bayesian evidence. Analytic results are tested with numerical experiments by adding simulated gravitational-wave transient signals to LIGO data collected between 2009 and 2010 and found to be in good agreement.

  18. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M.

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  19. Can we confidently diagnose pilomatricoma with fine needle aspiration cytology?

    PubMed

    Wong, Yin-Ping; Masir, Noraidah; Sharifah, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical 'lymphadenopathy', and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. 'Ghost cells' were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic 'ghost cells' and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  20. Can We Confidently Diagnose Pilomatricoma with Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology?

    PubMed Central

    WONG, Yin-Ping; MASIR, Noraidah; SHARIFAH, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical ‘lymphadenopathy’, and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. ‘Ghost cells’ were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic ‘ghost cells’ and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  1. Behavior Detection using Confidence Intervals of Hidden Markov Models

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Christopher H

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are commonly used to analyze real-world problems. Their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. Currently, HMMs recognize patterns using a maximum likelihood approach. One major drawback with this approach is that data observations are mapped to HMMs without considering the number of data samples available. Another problem is that this approach is only useful for choosing between HMMs. It does not provide a criteria for determining whether or not a given HMM adequately matches the data stream. In this work, we recognize complex behaviors using HMMs and confidence intervals. The certainty of a data match increases with the number of data samples considered. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves are used to find the optimal threshold for either accepting or rejecting a HMM description. We present one example using a family of HMM's to show the utility of the proposed approach. A second example using models extracted from a database of consumer purchases provides additional evidence that this approach can perform better than existing techniques.

  2. Confidence in government and vaccination willingness in the USA.

    PubMed

    Mesch, Gustavo S; Schwirian, Kent P

    2015-06-01

    The most recent internationally widespread disease outbreak occurred during the flu season of 2009 and 2010. On April 2009, the first cases of influenza A (H1N1) (Popularly called, Swine Flu) were confirmed in the USA and UK following a novel virus that was first identified in Mexico. As the virus spread rapidly, the risk of morbidity and mortality increased in several countries. In this paper, we rely on the social cognitive theory of risk to assess the willingness of the US public to comply with vaccination and reduce the risk of sickness and death from the flu. We conduct a secondary data analysis of the Pew Research for the People and Press October 2009 and investigate the factors associated with willingness to take the swine flu vaccine (n = 1000). The findings indicate that the decision to take the swine flu vaccination was highly polarized across partisan lines. Controlling for education, income and demographic factors, the likelihood of taking the vaccine was associated with party identification. Individuals that identified themselves as Democrats were more likely to be willing to take the swine vaccine than individuals that identify themselves as Republicans and Independents. Confidence in the ability of the government to deal with the swine flu crisis seems to explain party identification differences in the willingness to take the vaccine. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  3. Concept of a (1-. cap alpha. ) performance confidence interval

    SciTech Connect

    Leong, H.H.; Johnson, G.R.; Bechtel, T.N.

    1980-01-01

    A multi-input, single-output system is assumed to be represented by some model. The distribution functions of the input and the output variables are considered to be at least obtainable through experimental data. Associated with the computer response of the model corresponding to given inputs, a conditional pseudoresponse set is generated. This response can be constructed by means of the model by using the simulated pseudorandom input variates from a neighborhood defined by a preassigned probability allowance. A pair of such pseudoresponse values can then be computed by a procedure corresponding to a (1-..cap alpha..) probability for the conditional pseudoresponse set. The range defined by such a pair is called a (1-..cap alpha..) performance confidence interval with respect to the model. The application of this concept can allow comparison of the merit of two models describing the same system, or it can detect a system change when the current response is out of the performance interval with respect to the previously identified model. 6 figures.

  4. Fuzzy confidence regions for the Taguchi capability index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramezani, Zeinab; Parchami, Abbas; Mashinchi, Mashaallah

    2011-06-01

    Most of the traditional methods for assessing the capability of manufacturing processes are dealing with crisp quality. In quality control, such as other statistical problems, we may confront imprecise concepts. One case is a situation in which specification limits (SLs) are imprecise. In this situation, the fuzzy process capability indices (PCIs) ? , ? and ? are necessary for measuring the fuzzy quality in an in-control process. These fuzzy capability indices are also helpful for comparing manufacturing processes with SLs. The fuzzy capability index ? is used to provide an assessment of the ability of the fuzzy process to be clustered around the target value. The emphasis on the use of ? over the other two fuzzy indices, ? and ? , is due to its definition that provides indications of both the process variability and deviation of process mean from a specified target. In this article, by using triangular fuzzy SLs, we present four approximate ? fuzzy confidence regions for the fuzzy PCI ? . A numerical example is given to show the performance of the method.

  5. Can we confidently diagnose pilomatricoma with fine needle aspiration cytology?

    PubMed

    Wong, Yin-Ping; Masir, Noraidah; Sharifah, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical 'lymphadenopathy', and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. 'Ghost cells' were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic 'ghost cells' and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized.

  6. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOEpatents

    Wheat, Stephen R.

    1997-01-01

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated.

  7. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOEpatents

    Wheat, S.R.

    1997-05-13

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers is disclosed. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated. 13 figs.

  8. Radar channel balancing with commutation

    SciTech Connect

    Doerry, Armin Walter

    2014-02-01

    When multiple channels are employed in a pulse-Doppler radar, achieving and maintaining balance between the channels is problematic. In some circumstances the channels may be commutated to achieve adequate balance. Commutation is the switching, trading, toggling, or multiplexing of the channels between signal paths. Commutation allows modulating the imbalance energy away from the balanced energy in Doppler, where it can be mitigated with filtering.

  9. Rotor balancing apparatus and system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyman, Frank (Inventor); Lyman, Joseph (Inventor)

    1976-01-01

    Rotor balancing apparatus and a system comprising balance probes for measuring unbalance at the ends of a magnetically suspended rotor are disclosed. Each balance probe comprises a photocell which is located in relationship to the magnetically suspended rotor such that unbalance of the rotor changes the amount of light recorded by each photocell. The signal from each photocell is electrically amplified and displayed by a suitable device, such as an oscilloscope.

  10. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  11. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  12. Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

  13. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance. Research Report. ETS RR-07-03

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of confidence in relation to cognitive abilities, personality traits, and metacognition. Confidence was measured as it was expressed in answers to each test item during the administration of reading and listening sections of the TOEFL® iBT. The confidence scores were correlated with the accuracy scores from the TOEFL…

  14. Public Confidence in Public Education: A Growing Concern in the 80's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    This literature review and analysis of the problem of building community confidence focuses on the work of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Developing Public Confidence in Schools. Approaches to confidence building are categorized as: communications, concentrating on expanding communications one-way between school and the home; public…

  15. Mathematics Anxiety and Preservice Elementary Teachers' Confidence to Teach Mathematics and Science

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bursal, Murat; Paznokas, Lynda

    2006-01-01

    Sixty-five preservice elementary teachers' math anxiety levels and confidence levels to teach elementary mathematics and science were measured. The confidence scores of subjects in different math anxiety groups were compared and the relationships between their math anxiety levels and confidence levels to teach mathematics and science were…

  16. Enhancing School Connectedness: Teachers' Perceived Confidence in Positively Connecting Students to School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vidourek, Rebecca A.; King, Keith A.

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined teachers' perceived confidence in using strategies to positively connect students to school. A total of 419 teachers in Ohio elementary and middle schools were surveyed (60% response rate). Results indicated that teachers felt slightly confident to confident in their abilities to positively connect students to school.…

  17. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  18. 78 FR 64412 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-29

    .... Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has rescheduled to November 12 the Waste Confidence public meeting it... disposal (the proposed Waste Confidence rule) and the draft generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS... Waste Confidence Rule in the Federal Register on September 13, 2013 (78 FR 56776). On the same day,...

  19. Pre-Service Geography Teachers' Confidence in Geographical Subject Matter Knowledge and Teaching Geographical Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harte, Wendy; Reitano, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This research tracked the confidence of 16 undergraduate and postgraduate pre-service geography teachers as they completed a single semester, senior phase geography curriculum course. The study focused specifically on the pre-service teachers' confidence in geographical subject matter knowledge and their confidence in teaching geographical skills.…

  20. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  1. 37 CFR 10.57 - Preservation of confidences and secrets of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Preservation of confidences... confidences and secrets of a client. (a) “Confidence” refers to information protected by the attorney-client...) of this section, a practitioner shall not knowingly: (1) Reveal a confidence or secret of a...

  2. Development of a Questionnaire To Examine Confidence of Occupational Therapy Students during Fieldwork Experiences.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Derdall, Michele; Olson, Peggy; Janzen, Wonita; Warren, Sharon

    2002-01-01

    An instrument to measure occupational therapy students' self-confidence during field work was tested with 70 Canadian students. Results demonstrates that confidence increases during placement and grows higher in later placements. Student characteristics and placement settings had no significant effect on confidence. (SK)

  3. An Integrated Understanding of Confidence and User Calibration in Information Systems Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Fengchun

    2012-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

  4. Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

  5. Male and Female College Students' College Majors: The Contribution of Basic Vocational Confidence and Interests

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Lisa M.; Wu, Tsui-Feng; Bailey, Donna C.; Borgen, Fred H.; Gasser, Courtney E.

    2010-01-01

    The first purpose was to determine if overall gender differences in basic confidence as measured by the Expanded Skills Confidence Inventory (ESCI) and basic interests as measured by the 2005 Strong Interest Inventory (SII) would be present within eight college major families. As expected, anticipated overall gender differences in confidence and…

  6. Judgments of Vocal Quality, Speech Fluency, and Confidence of Southern Black and White Speakers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Irwin, Ruth Beckey

    Comparative judgments of vocal quality, speech fluency, and confidence of black and white speakers in southern universities were tested to determine the interrelationships of (1) perception of vocal quality and judgment of confidence in the voice, (2) quality and fluency, and (3) speech fluency and judgment of confidence, and to ascertain the…

  7. What is a balanced program?

    PubMed

    Mohl, P C

    1995-06-01

    "Balance" has become the watchword of psychiatry programs. It seems that almost all residency training programs claim to be balanced. But what do we mean by this term? This article summarizes the author's evolving thinking about what makes for a balanced program and suggests that diversity may be a better term. The author advocates that balance is not as simple as teaching both psychodynamics and biological psychiatry. Instead, it entails a considered, intellectual approach that involves long-term vs. other psychotherapies, neuro-science vs. psychopharmacology, theoretical pharmacology vs. practical pharmacology, social psychiatry vs. treating minority patients, representing all viewpoints in psychiatry vs. integrating them. PMID:24442525

  8. Effect of Wii-based balance training on corticomotor excitability post stroke.

    PubMed

    Omiyale, Oluwabunmi; Crowell, Charles R; Madhavan, Sangeetha

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to examine the effectiveness of a 3-week balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit gaming system (Nintendo Wii Sports, Nintendo, Redmond, WA) on lower limb corticomotor excitability and other clinical measures in chronic stroke survivors. Ten individuals diagnosed with ischemic stroke with residual hemiparesis received balance training using the Wii Fit for 60 min/day, three times/week, for three weeks. At the end of training, an increase in interhemispheric symmetry of corticomotor excitability of the tibialis anterior muscle representations was noted (n = 9). Participants also showed improvements in reaction time, time to perform the Dual Timed-Up-and-Go test, and balance confidence. The training-induced balance in corticomotor excitability suggests that this Wii-based balance training paradigm has the potential to influence neural plasticity and thereby functional recovery. PMID:25425118

  9. Post choice information integration as a causal determinant of confidence: Novel data and a computational account.

    PubMed

    Moran, Rani; Teodorescu, Andrei R; Usher, Marius

    2015-05-01

    Confidence judgments are pivotal in the performance of daily tasks and in many domains of scientific research including the behavioral sciences, psychology and neuroscience. Positive resolution i.e., the positive correlation between choice-correctness and choice-confidence is a critical property of confidence judgments, which justifies their ubiquity. In the current paper, we study the mechanism underlying confidence judgments and their resolution by investigating the source of the inputs for the confidence-calculation. We focus on the intriguing debate between two families of confidence theories. According to single stage theories, confidence is based on the same information that underlies the decision (or on some other aspect of the decision process), whereas according to dual stage theories, confidence is affected by novel information that is collected after the decision was made. In three experiments, we support the case for dual stage theories by showing that post-choice perceptual availability manipulations exert a causal effect on confidence-resolution in the decision followed by confidence paradigm. These finding establish the role of RT2, the duration of the post-choice information-integration stage, as a prime dependent variable that theories of confidence should account for. We then present a novel list of robust empirical patterns ('hurdles') involving RT2 to guide further theorizing about confidence judgments. Finally, we present a unified computational dual stage model for choice, confidence and their latencies namely, the collapsing confidence boundary model (CCB). According to CCB, a diffusion-process choice is followed by a second evidence-integration stage towards a stochastic collapsing confidence boundary. Despite its simplicity, CCB clears the entire list of hurdles.

  10. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

  11. The stress field in Europe: optimal orientations with confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Carafa, M. M. C.; Barba, S.

    2013-05-01

    In this study, we modify and extend a data analysis technique to determine the stress orientations between data clusters by adding an additional constraint governing the probability algorithm. We apply this technique to produce a map of the maximum horizontal compressive stress (SHmax) orientations in the greater European region (including Europe, Turkey and Mediterranean Africa). Using the World Stress Map data set release 2008, we obtain analytical probability distributions of the directional differences as a function of the angular distance, θ. We then multiply the probability distributions that are based on pre-averaged data within θ < 3° of the interpolation point and determine the maximum likelihood estimate of the SHmax orientation. At a given distance, the probability of obtaining a particular discrepancy decreases exponentially with discrepancy. By exploiting this feature observed in the World Stress Map release 2008 data set, we increase the robustness of our SHmax determinations. For a reliable determination of the most likely SHmax orientation, we require that 90 per cent confidence limits be less than ±60° and a minimum of three clusters, which is achieved for 57 per cent of the study area, with uncertainties of less than ±30° for 19 per cent of the area. When the data density exceeds 0.8 × 10-3 data km-2, our method provides a means of reproducing significant local patterns in the stress field. Several mountain ranges in the Mediterranean display 90° changes in the SHmax orientation from their crests (which often experience normal faulting) and their foothills (which often experience thrust faulting). This pattern constrains the tectonic stresses to a magnitude similar to that of the topographic stresses.

  12. Inference by eye: reading the overlap of independent confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Cumming, Geoff

    2009-01-30

    When 95 per cent confidence intervals (CIs) on independent means do not overlap, the two-tailed p-value is less than 0.05 and there is a statistically significant difference between the means. However, p for non-overlapping 95 per cent CIs is actually considerably smaller than 0.05: If the two CIs just touch, p is about 0.01, and the intervals can overlap by as much as about half the length of one CI arm before p becomes as large as 0.05. Keeping in mind this rule-that overlap of half the length of one arm corresponds approximately to statistical significance at p = 0.05-can be helpful for a quick appreciation of figures that display CIs, especially if precise p-values are not reported. The author investigated the robustness of this and similar rules, and found them sufficiently accurate when sample sizes are at least 10, and the two intervals do not differ in width by more than a factor of 2. The author reviewed previous discussions of CI overlap and extended the investigation to p-values other than 0.05 and 0.01. He also studied 95 per cent CIs on two proportions, and on two Pearson correlations, and found similar rules apply to overlap of these asymmetric CIs, for a very broad range of cases. Wider use of figures with 95 per cent CIs is desirable, and these rules may assist easy and appropriate understanding of such figures.

  13. The effect of certain rater roles on confidence in physician's assistant ratings.

    PubMed

    Dowaliby, F J

    1977-11-01

    Previous research on the psychology of confidence suggests that the more confident a rater is in his judgment the more accurate is his rating. The purpose of the present study was to investigate possible differences among raters in their confidence in competency ratings which they had provided. Results indicated significant differences due to the rater's interpersonal role with the ratee and the particular aspect of competence rated. Greater simple structure of competence ratings when adjusted for rater confidence is also shown. Rater confidence is discussed as an index for rater selection and as a moderator variable for competence ratings.

  14. Balancing "we" and "me".

    PubMed

    Congdon, Christine; Flynn, Donna; Redman, Melanie

    2014-10-01

    The open office is the dominant form of workspace design for good reason: It fosters collaboration, promotes learning, and nurtures strong culture. But what most companies fail to realize is that collaboration has a natural rhythm that requires both interaction and private contemplation. Companies have been trying for decades to find the balance between public and private workspace that best supports collaboration. In 1980 52% of U.S. employees lacked workspaces where they could concentrate without distraction. In response, high-walled cubicles took over the corporate landscape. By the late 1990s, the tide had turned, and only 23% of employees wanted more privacy, and 50% wanted more access to other people. Ever since, firms have been beefing up spaces that support collaboration and shrinking areas for individual work. But the pendulum seems to have swung too far: Once again, people feel a pressing need for privacy, not only to do heads-down work but to cope with the intensity of work today. To address these needs, according to the authors, we have to rethink our assumptions about privacy. Traditionally defined in physical terms, privacy is now about the individual's ability to control information and stimulation. In this article, the authors examine workspace design through the new lens of privacy and offer insights on how to foster teamwork and solitude. PMID:25509575

  15. In the Balance:

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Lawrence T.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The nineteenth century saw the incorporation of technology, such as the stethoscope, microscope, and thermometer, into clinical medicine. An instrument that has received less attention in the history of the role of technology in medicine is the weighing balance, or scale. Although not new to nineteenth-century medicine, it played an important part in the rise of the numerical method and its application to the development and shaping of pediatrics. This article explores the origin and development of the weighing of babies. During its clinical and scientific adoption, this simple procedure was refined and applied in a number of increasingly sophisticated and far-reaching ways: as a measure of the dimensions of the fetus and newborn, as an index of the viability of the newborn, as a means of estimating milk intake, as a way of distinguishing normality from abnormality, as a summary measure of infant health, and as an instrument of mass surveillance. In so doing it changed the way in which medical care was delivered to infants. PMID:20632732

  16. A Balanced Memory Network

    PubMed Central

    Roudi, Yasser; Latham, Peter E

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental problem in neuroscience is understanding how working memory—the ability to store information at intermediate timescales, like tens of seconds—is implemented in realistic neuronal networks. The most likely candidate mechanism is the attractor network, and a great deal of effort has gone toward investigating it theoretically. Yet, despite almost a quarter century of intense work, attractor networks are not fully understood. In particular, there are still two unanswered questions. First, how is it that attractor networks exhibit irregular firing, as is observed experimentally during working memory tasks? And second, how many memories can be stored under biologically realistic conditions? Here we answer both questions by studying an attractor neural network in which inhibition and excitation balance each other. Using mean-field analysis, we derive a three-variable description of attractor networks. From this description it follows that irregular firing can exist only if the number of neurons involved in a memory is large. The same mean-field analysis also shows that the number of memories that can be stored in a network scales with the number of excitatory connections, a result that has been suggested for simple models but never shown for realistic ones. Both of these predictions are verified using simulations with large networks of spiking neurons. PMID:17845070

  17. Par Pond water balance

    SciTech Connect

    Hiergesell, R.A.; Dixon, K.L.

    1996-06-01

    A water budget for the Par Pond hydrologic system was established in order to estimate the rate of groundwater influx to Par Pond. This estimate will be used in modeling exercises to predict Par Pond reservoir elevation and spillway discharge in the scenario where Savannah River water is no longer pumped and discharged into Par Pond. The principal of conservation of mass was used to develop the water budget, where water inflow was set equal to water outflow. Components of the water budget were identified, and the flux associated with each was determined. The water budget was considered balanced when inflow and outflow summed to zero. The results of this study suggest that Par Pond gains water from the groundwater system in the upper reaches of the reservoir, but looses water to the groundwater system near the dam. The rate of flux of groundwater from the water table aquifer into Par Pond was determined to be 13 cfs. The rate of flux from Par Pond to the water table aquifer near the dam was determined to be 7 cfs.

  18. Balancing "we" and "me".

    PubMed

    Congdon, Christine; Flynn, Donna; Redman, Melanie

    2014-10-01

    The open office is the dominant form of workspace design for good reason: It fosters collaboration, promotes learning, and nurtures strong culture. But what most companies fail to realize is that collaboration has a natural rhythm that requires both interaction and private contemplation. Companies have been trying for decades to find the balance between public and private workspace that best supports collaboration. In 1980 52% of U.S. employees lacked workspaces where they could concentrate without distraction. In response, high-walled cubicles took over the corporate landscape. By the late 1990s, the tide had turned, and only 23% of employees wanted more privacy, and 50% wanted more access to other people. Ever since, firms have been beefing up spaces that support collaboration and shrinking areas for individual work. But the pendulum seems to have swung too far: Once again, people feel a pressing need for privacy, not only to do heads-down work but to cope with the intensity of work today. To address these needs, according to the authors, we have to rethink our assumptions about privacy. Traditionally defined in physical terms, privacy is now about the individual's ability to control information and stimulation. In this article, the authors examine workspace design through the new lens of privacy and offer insights on how to foster teamwork and solitude.

  19. Strenghtened nuclear controls - maintaining the confidence for expanding nuclear cooperation

    SciTech Connect

    Burkart, A.R. )

    1992-01-01

    Events in the Gulf during 1990 and 1991 focused the world's attention on Iraq's challenge to the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the forceful response of the United Nations Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the coalition partners. The paper will examine recent efforts to strengthen the regime in response to this and other challenges: the upgrading of the nuclear trigger lists, the extension of the control regime to dual-use exports, a renewed use by the IAEA of its special inspection authority under NPT safeguards agreements, a broad review of means to improve the application of safeguards, and a significant expansion of the number of NPT adherents. These efforts recognize the critical role that an effective control regime plays in providing the fundamental underpinning for cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The paper will also look as such events as the continued internationalization of the nuclear industry, the unprecedented efforts in meeting the safety needs of nuclear power in Eastern Europe, the dramatic growth in technical assistance through the IAEA and other important demonstrations that nuclear cooperation remains an important part of the balance struck in 1953 with the Atoms for Peace initiative.

  20. Balancing Safety and Free Speech

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hudson, David L., Jr.

    2004-01-01

    According to Jay Worona, general counsel for the New York State School Board Association, "Balancing safety and student constitutional rights is not easy. It has to be a careful balance. School officials must be prudent and not overreact. But one part of the equation has to be paramount. And safety should be the primary concern" (personal…

  1. The Balance-Scale Problem.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenwood, Jay, Ed.

    1997-01-01

    Presents the reflections of students on a problem given in May, 1996 issue of this journal in order to share the thinking of middle school students. The problem concerned weighing on a double per balance if given a clump of clay, and a 20-gram and 50-gram balance. (ASK)

  2. Confiding About Problems in Marriage and Long-Term Committed Relationships: A National Study.

    PubMed

    Lind Seal, Kirsten; Doherty, William J; Harris, Steven M

    2016-07-01

    This study examined confiding patterns in a national sample of 1000 U.S. adults aged 25-70 to inform the development of an educational program for confidants, called Marital First Responders. Results showed that 73% of U.S. adults have been a confidant to someone with a problem in a marriage or long-term committed relationship. The most common confiding relationship was between friends, followed by siblings. Confidants reported a wide range of problems brought to them, ranging from everyday complaints to serious issues such as infidelity and divorce. Confiders identified the most and least helpful responses. Findings suggest that naturally occurring confiding relationships have considerable potential to be the first level of help for troubled couple relationships.

  3. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making.

  4. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  5. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. PMID:24650632

  6. Single-Vector Calibration of Wind-Tunnel Force Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, P. A.; DeLoach, R.

    2003-01-01

    An improved method of calibrating a wind-tunnel force balance involves the use of a unique load application system integrated with formal experimental design methodology. The Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System (SVS) overcomes the productivity and accuracy limitations of prior calibration methods. A force balance is a complex structural spring element instrumented with strain gauges for measuring three orthogonal components of aerodynamic force (normal, axial, and side force) and three orthogonal components of aerodynamic torque (rolling, pitching, and yawing moments). Force balances remain as the state-of-the-art instrument that provide these measurements on a scale model of an aircraft during wind tunnel testing. Ideally, each electrical channel of the balance would respond only to its respective component of load, and it would have no response to other components of load. This is not entirely possible even though balance designs are optimized to minimize these undesirable interaction effects. Ultimately, a calibration experiment is performed to obtain the necessary data to generate a mathematical model and determine the force measurement accuracy. In order to set the independent variables of applied load for the calibration 24 NASA Tech Briefs, October 2003 experiment, a high-precision mechanical system is required. Manual deadweight systems have been in use at Langley Research Center (LaRC) since the 1940s. These simple methodologies produce high confidence results, but the process is mechanically complex and labor-intensive, requiring three to four weeks to complete. Over the past decade, automated balance calibration systems have been developed. In general, these systems were designed to automate the tedious manual calibration process resulting in an even more complex system which deteriorates load application quality. The current calibration approach relies on a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) methodology, where each independent variable is

  7. Development of a 5-Component Balance for Water Tunnel Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suarez, Carlos J.; Kramer, Brian R.; Smith, Brooke C.

    1999-01-01

    The principal objective of this research/development effort was to develop a multi-component strain gage balance to measure both static and dynamic forces and moments on models tested in flow visualization water tunnels. A balance was designed that allows measuring normal and side forces, and pitching, yawing and rolling moments (no axial force). The balance mounts internally in the model and is used in a manner typical of wind tunnel balances. The key differences between a water tunnel balance and a wind tunnel balance are the requirement for very high sensitivity since the loads are very low (typical normal force is 90 grams or 0.2 lbs), the need for water proofing the gage elements, and the small size required to fit into typical water tunnel models. The five-component balance was calibrated and demonstrated linearity in the responses of the primary components to applied loads, very low interactions between the sections and no hysteresis. Static experiments were conducted in the Eidetics water tunnel with delta wings and F/A-18 models. The data were compared to forces and moments from wind tunnel tests of the same or similar configurations. The comparison showed very good agreement, providing confidence that loads can be measured accurately in the water tunnel with a relatively simple multi-component internal balance. The success of the static experiments encouraged the use of the balance for dynamic experiments. Among the advantages of conducting dynamic tests in a water tunnel are less demanding motion and data acquisition rates than in a wind tunnel test (because of the low-speed flow) and the capability of performing flow visualization and force/moment (F/M) measurements simultaneously with relative simplicity. This capability of simultaneous flow visualization and for F/M measurements proved extremely useful to explain the results obtained during these dynamic tests. In general, the development of this balance should encourage the use of water tunnels for a

  8. The effects of 8-week balance training or weight training

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sukwon; Lockhart, Thurmon; Roberto, Karen

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of participating in an 8-week physical training (ie: balance or weight training) on psychosocial outcomes for independently living healthy older adults. Eighteen older adults (65 years old or older) voluntarily participated for this study. Participants were randomly and evenly distributed in 3 different groups such as balance, weight, or control group; 6 participants each. Fear of falling and social activity levels were statistically tested by evaluating questionnaires validated in previous studies. Psychological factors improved in all groups after 8 weeks (P < 0.05). Social interaction level did not improve in any of the three groups, although all participants exhibited improvements in being physically independent (P < 0.05). Results suggested that being physically active as well as being socially active could result in being less fearful of falls, more confident of leaving residency, being more independent, and being more active. PMID:21394234

  9. Soviet theater nuclear capabilities: the European nuclear balance in transition

    SciTech Connect

    Kennedy, R.

    1983-08-31

    This memorandum examined the changing strategic and theater nuclear environment; Soviet theater nuclear force improvements and doctrine; the implications of Soviet theater nuclear buildup for deterrence and the defense of Europe; and NATO's response. The author concludes that the changing balance of theater capabilities has resulted in a devaluation of deterrence, a decline in Western self-confidence, and an increase in NATO's vulnerabilities. The author also contends that if the Soviet Union is unwilling to negotiate a significant reduction intermediate-range nuclear forces that now pose a serious threat to the West, the NATO deployment of Pershing II and cruise missiles will not only help to restore balance to the NATO/Warsaw Pact nuclear equation, but will also enhance deterrence, reduce NATO's vulnerabilities, and thus, will contribute to crisis stability in Europe.

  10. A balancing act: Physical balance, through arousal, influences size perception

    PubMed Central

    Geuss, Michael N.; Stefanucci, Jeanine K.; de Benedictis-Kessner, Justin; Stevens, Nicholas R.

    2012-01-01

    Previous research demonstrates that manipulating vision influences balance. Here, we question whether manipulating balance can influence vision and how it may influence vision, specifically the perception of width. In Experiment 1, participants estimated the width of beams while balanced and unbalanced. When unbalanced, participants judged the widths to be smaller. One possible explanation is that unbalanced participants did not view the stimulus as long as when balanced because they were focused on remaining balanced. In Experiment 2, we tested this notion by limiting viewing time. Experiment 2 replicated the findings of Experiment 1 but viewing time had no effect on width judgments. In Experiment 3, participants’ level of arousal was manipulated because the balancing task likely produced arousal. While jogging, participants judged the beams to be smaller. In Experiment 4, participants completed another arousing task (counting backward by 7s) that did not involve movement. Again, participants judged the beams to be smaller when aroused. Experiment 5a raised participants’ level of arousal before estimating the board widths (to control for potential dual-task effects) and found that heightened arousal still influenced perceived width of the boards. Collectively, heightened levels of arousal, caused by multiple manipulations (including balance), influenced perceived width. PMID:20952786

  11. Searching for balanced development.

    PubMed

    Kulessa, M

    1987-08-01

    It is significant in China, as the day of 5 billion is commemorated, that the Government has shown its full committment to a family planning program that has been internationally acknowledged as one of the most successful efforts in the world today. Since 1979, the annual population growth rate in China has gone down from 2.7% to an annual average of around 1.2%. In fact, because China makes up more than 1/5 of the world's population, the overall growth rate achieved worldwide has been reduced to about 2%. This is heavily due to the achievements of the Chinese family planning program. Even as China has lowered its birthrate, its rate of agricultural production has rapidly risen. At present, China is doing well in grain production. Although the per capita income in China is still comparatively low, the country is able to feed its citizens, and the famines that used to be a big problem are now but a bad memory. As the close relationship between population and development is observed, there is some controversy about the effects and impact of family planning on development. The belief is held that the more people there are in this world, the more progress there will be because more brains, hands, and energy will be harnessed for development. As has also been noted, however, a person is not just head and hands--a person has a mouth to feed, as well. Thus, there is a need to balance the number of people with the resources of the society. If the rate of population growth outstrips economic and social production, then hunger and poverty will result, as the fruits of development will be eaten up too rapidly.

  12. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High-Contrast Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marois, Christian; Lafrenière, David; Macintosh, Bruce; Doyon, René

    2008-01-01

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground- and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analyses have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follow a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil, this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fixed separation from the point-spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and noncoronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level (CL). In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding CL as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckle noise, a detection threshold up to 3 times higher is required to obtain a CL equivalent to that at 5 σ for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested on data acquired by simultaneous spectral differential imaging with TRIDENT and by angular differential imaging with NIRI. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. Finally, a power law is derived to predict the 1 - 3 × 10-7 CL detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of

  13. 'Losing my touch': decline in self-reported confidence in performing practical procedures in consultant oncologists.

    PubMed

    Thomson, A H; Foy, C J W; Benstead, K

    2006-08-01

    This study aimed to compare the confidence of oncology consultants and specialist registrars (SpRs) in the performance of practical procedures, to contrast this with confidence in other areas of practice and to determine at what grade they felt most confident. Questionnaires were sent to all 57 oncology consultants and SpRs in the South-West region. Respondents scored confidence on a five-point Likert scale. The response rate was 70%. SpRs were significantly more confident in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (p = 0.003) and central line insertion (p = 0.006). Consultants were significantly more confident in developing management plans (p = 0.001) and performing committee work (p = 0.002). Only 6% of consultants felt most confident performing practical procedures as a consultant, and were less confident about these than other tasks (p = 0.001). Some 86% of SpRs considered they were more confident performing practical procedures as senior house officers (SHOs). In conclusion, self-reported confidence in performing practical procedures declines during career progression in oncology. This raises questions about the teaching and supervision of these procedures. If there is a greater emphasis on a consultant-provided service, their educational needs will need to be recognized and retraining or outsourcing of these procedures to other specialties may be necessary. PMID:16973448

  14. The effect of confidence and method of questioning on eyewitness testimony.

    PubMed

    Venter, A; Louw, D A

    2005-06-01

    Very often eyewitnesses are perceived as being accurate due to the confidence in the accuracy of their own testimony. The confidence displayed by an eyewitness may possibly be increased by the method of questioning used by legal professionals and police. The present study examines the confidence-accuracy relationship and the effect the method of questioning (open-ended versus closed-ended questions) may have on the confidence of eyewitnesses. The sample of 412 respondents consisted of scholars (11 to 14-year-olds), university students, the public and Police College students. A significant relationship between memory accuracy and confidence was found for more than 70% of the questions. Closed-ended questions provided a significantly higher rate of accuracy than open-ended questions. A significantly larger proportion of respondents to the closed-ended questions were more confident about their answers than those who responded to the open-ended questions. PMID:16082872

  15. Appetite and energy balancing.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Peter J; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

    2016-10-01

    pleasure of eating it. The latter, which is similar to food reward, is determined primarily by the state of emptiness of the gut and food liking related to the food's sensory qualities and macronutrient value and the individual's dietary history. Importantly, energy density adds value because energy dense foods are less satiating kJ for kJ and satiation limits further intake. That is, energy dense foods promote energy intake by virtue (1) of being more attractive and (2) having low satiating capacity kJ for kJ, and (1) is partly a consequence of (2). Energy storage is adapted to feast and famine and that includes unevenness over time of the costs of obtaining and ingesting food compared with engaging in other activities. However, in very low-cost food environments with energy dense foods readily available, risk of obesity is high. This risk can be and is mitigated by dietary restraint, which in its simplest form could mean missing the occasional meal. Another strategy we discuss is the energy dilution achieved by replacing some sugar in the diet with low-calorie sweeteners. Perhaps as or more significant, though, is that belief in short-term energy balancing (the energy depletion model) may undermine attempts to eat less. Therefore, correcting narratives of eating to be consistent with biological reality could also assist with weight control.

  16. Appetite and energy balancing.

    PubMed

    Rogers, Peter J; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M

    2016-10-01

    pleasure of eating it. The latter, which is similar to food reward, is determined primarily by the state of emptiness of the gut and food liking related to the food's sensory qualities and macronutrient value and the individual's dietary history. Importantly, energy density adds value because energy dense foods are less satiating kJ for kJ and satiation limits further intake. That is, energy dense foods promote energy intake by virtue (1) of being more attractive and (2) having low satiating capacity kJ for kJ, and (1) is partly a consequence of (2). Energy storage is adapted to feast and famine and that includes unevenness over time of the costs of obtaining and ingesting food compared with engaging in other activities. However, in very low-cost food environments with energy dense foods readily available, risk of obesity is high. This risk can be and is mitigated by dietary restraint, which in its simplest form could mean missing the occasional meal. Another strategy we discuss is the energy dilution achieved by replacing some sugar in the diet with low-calorie sweeteners. Perhaps as or more significant, though, is that belief in short-term energy balancing (the energy depletion model) may undermine attempts to eat less. Therefore, correcting narratives of eating to be consistent with biological reality could also assist with weight control. PMID:27059321

  17. Cautions Concerning Electronic Analytical Balances.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce B.; Wells, John D.

    1986-01-01

    Cautions chemists to be wary of ferromagnetic samples (especially magnetized samples), stray electromagnetic radiation, dusty environments, and changing weather conditions. These and other conditions may alter readings obtained from electronic analytical balances. (JN)

  18. Skylab water balance error analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1977-01-01

    Estimates of the precision of the net water balance were obtained for the entire Skylab preflight and inflight phases as well as for the first two weeks of flight. Quantitative estimates of both total sampling errors and instrumentation errors were obtained. It was shown that measurement error is minimal in comparison to biological variability and little can be gained from improvement in analytical accuracy. In addition, a propagation of error analysis demonstrated that total water balance error could be accounted for almost entirely by the errors associated with body mass changes. Errors due to interaction between terms in the water balance equation (covariances) represented less than 10% of the total error. Overall, the analysis provides evidence that daily measurements of body water changes obtained from the indirect balance technique are reasonable, precise, and relaible. The method is not biased toward net retention or loss.

  19. Improving Balance with Tai Chi

    MedlinePlus

    ... It emphasizes the intercon- nected nature of the body and mind (Figure 1), combining “physical movement, breathing techniques, and ... and focus. Figure 1. The interconnected nature of body and mind and concept of balance is symbolized by the ...

  20. Efficient codes and balanced networks.

    PubMed

    Denève, Sophie; Machens, Christian K

    2016-03-01

    Recent years have seen a growing interest in inhibitory interneurons and their circuits. A striking property of cortical inhibition is how tightly it balances excitation. Inhibitory currents not only match excitatory currents on average, but track them on a millisecond time scale, whether they are caused by external stimuli or spontaneous fluctuations. We review, together with experimental evidence, recent theoretical approaches that investigate the advantages of such tight balance for coding and computation. These studies suggest a possible revision of the dominant view that neurons represent information with firing rates corrupted by Poisson noise. Instead, tight excitatory/inhibitory balance may be a signature of a highly cooperative code, orders of magnitude more precise than a Poisson rate code. Moreover, tight balance may provide a template that allows cortical neurons to construct high-dimensional population codes and learn complex functions of their inputs.

  1. Laboratory Workhorse: The Analytical Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Douglas W.

    1979-01-01

    This report explains the importance of various analytical balances in the water or wastewater laboratory. Stressed is the proper procedure for utilizing the equipment as well as the mechanics involved in its operation. (CS)

  2. Aging: Balancing regeneration and cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Beausejour, Christian M.; Campisi, Judith

    2006-08-24

    The proliferation of cells must balance the longevity assured by tissue renewal against the risk of developing cancer. The tumor-suppressor protein p16{sup INK4a} seems to act at the pivot of this delicate equilibrium.

  3. Effectiveness of a computerized educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence level related to diabetes.

    PubMed

    Eaton-Spiva, Leeanna; Day, Angela

    2011-01-01

    A descriptive, quasi-experimental design, one-group pretest-posttest method was used to assess perceptions of nurses' knowledge in diabetes care and confidence in teaching diabetes education and to examine the effectiveness of a computer-based learning educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence related to diabetes. Nurses had a slight improvement in knowledge, skill, and confidence related to diabetes after the computer-based learning intervention, but no statistically significant differences were found.

  4. Mass balance computation in SAGUARO

    SciTech Connect

    Baker, B.L.; Eaton, R.R.

    1986-12-01

    This report describes the development of the mass balance subroutines used with the finite-element code, SAGUARO, which models fluid flow in partially saturated porous media. Derivation of the basic mass storage and mass flux equations is included. The results of the SAGUARO mass-balance subroutine, MASS, are shown to compare favorably with the linked results of FEMTRAN. Implementation of the MASS option in SAGUARO is described. Instructions for use of the MASS option are demonstrated with the three sample cases.

  5. Balanced scorecards for performance management.

    PubMed

    Park, Eun-Jun; Huber, Diane L

    2007-01-01

    Nurse administrators who manage nursing case management programs are challenged to demonstrate the improved quality of patient care and financial outcomes to their organization that result from such programs. This article introduces the balanced scorecard and discusses its benefits and practical concerns for adopting the scorecard. The balanced scorecard is a useful performance management tool used to both evaluate and direct case management performance in meeting organizational missions and strategies. PMID:17172968

  6. A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence

    PubMed Central

    van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2016-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12192.001 PMID:26829590

  7. Importance of Building Confidence in Patient Communication and Clinical Skills Among Chiropractic Students

    PubMed Central

    Hecimovich, Mark D.; Volet, Simone E.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: One important objective of chiropractic education is to foster student professional confidence and competence in patient communication and clinical skills. Therefore, the aim of this article is to review the extant literature on this topic, stressing the significance of building students' confidence for effective practice and the need for more research in this area. Methods: The authors reviewed MEDLINE and ERIC from 1980 through 2008 using several key words pertinent to confidence and health care. Three distinct, but interrelated, bodies of literature were assessed, including professional confidence in health care research, the nature and development of confidence in educational psychology research, and fostering professional confidence in chiropractic education. Results: It was apparent through the review that chiropractic education has developed educational methods and opportunities that may help develop and build student confidence in patient communication and clinical skills. However, there has not been sufficient research to provide empirical evidence of the impact. Conclusion: Fostering chiropractic students' development of confidence in what they say and do is of paramount importance not only to them as new practitioners but more importantly to the patient. There is no doubt that a better understanding of how confidence can be developed and consolidated during tertiary study should be a major goal of chiropractic education PMID:19826543

  8. Building confident organizations by filling buckets, building infrastructures, and shining the flashlight.

    PubMed

    Kerfoot, Karlene

    2004-01-01

    Leaders have the ability to create confidence or fear in the organization. Kanter (2004) writes that confidence is the "...sweet spot between arrogance and despair" (p. 8). Overconfidence causes people to overshoot, and to assume they are invulnerable. Under-confidence is just as harmful because it leads to under-investing in people, under-innovating, and eventually leads to the disenfranchisement of staff and poor morale. If we take Kanter's advice, we will build an infrastructure that creates confidence in everyone and the organization. But we will not stop there. We will focus "flashlights" on people and activities that are inspiring to others.

  9. Walking (Gait), Balance, and Coordination Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... tizanidine are generally effective in treating this symptom. Balance : Balance problems typically result in a swaying and “drunken” ... factors for falls are complex and include: poor balance and slowed walking reduced proprioception (the sensation of ...

  10. Ecological Elements of Water Balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Dong, X.; Fisher, S. G.; Grimm, N. B.

    2011-12-01

    In simplest terms, "water balance" can refer to the water budget in a bounded system within a specified time frame. While this mass-balance approach is important, a broader concept that includes ecological notions of balance, stability, and feedbacks is useful, especially when management goals extend to maintenance of ecological health and ecosystem integrity concomitant with water delivery. Here, we propose three ecological elements to enrich the concept of hydrologic balance. (1) A spatially explicit perspective of water and nutrient balance replaces the holistic view. For example, in fluvial landscapes, routing of water generates hydrologic connectivity via flowpaths and creates a hydrologic network. Important patches in the network include hillslopes, floodplains, riparian areas, surface channels, and hyporheic zones, each of which is characterized by unique biogeochemical processes. Different hydrologic network structures have different nutrient-removal capacities, which depend upon how their flowpaths intersect patch-specific processing. The connectivity among these patches is an important variable influencing nutrient-retention capacity of landscapes, and thereby the resulting water quality in receiving systems. (2) Temporal regime is an important component of balance. Organisms in a fluvial landscape reflect the inherent time schedule of the system, as a result of long-term interactions and adaptation to the environment. In aridland streams, the drying and flood cycle select flora whose life cycles and activities fit the hydrological regime. The existence of particular species relies on the temporal distribution of water-the input regime-more than the integral input and output balance. The match of organism life cycle and hydrologic regime is the basis for biodiversity and ecosystem functions. (3) Ecosystems are self-organized systems based on feedbacks among organisms and between organisms and the abiotic environment. They do not simply respond to

  11. Balancing act: the ultimate balance nutrition consulting center.

    PubMed

    Engle, L

    1998-11-01

    Nutritional issues often complicate health care but are very important in HIV treatment where diet can play a strong role in drug absorption and effectiveness. A Canadian company has started a for-fee nutritional counseling service called Ultimate Balance. The nutritionists at Ultimate Balance require medical disclosure and extensive telephone interviews with patients, and also review patients' cases and medications. The nutritional guidance provided is controversial, because it is funded by a company that produces nutritional supplements, and counselors sometimes recommend those supplements. A personal experience with the nutritional counseling service is described. Contact information is provided. PMID:11365979

  12. Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

    PubMed

    Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

    2013-12-01

    Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format.

  13. Developing Preservice Primary Teachers' Confidence and Competence in Arts Education Using Principles of Authentic Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Russell-Bowie, Deirdre E.

    2012-01-01

    Arts education research over the years has highlighted the situation of non-specialist preservice primary arts teachers as having little confidence in their own artistic ability and their ability to teach the arts to children. Added to this, problems such a lack of resources, confidence, priority, time, knowledge and experience appear to inhibit…

  14. Calibration in Goal Setting: Examining the Nature of Judgments of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hadwin, Allyson F.; Webster, Elizabeth A.

    2013-01-01

    This study examined the nature of confidence judgments associated with personal goal setting during undergraduate studying episodes. Calibration was examined between paired judgments of confidence and self-evaluations of goal attainment made over nine consecutive weeks. Participants were 170 students enrolled in a first-year undergraduate course…

  15. Exact and Best Confidence Intervals for the Ability Parameter of the Rasch Model.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Klauer, Karl Christoph

    1991-01-01

    Smallest exact confidence intervals for the ability parameter of the Rasch model are derived and compared to the traditional asymptotically valid intervals based on Fisher information. Tables of exact confidence intervals, termed Clopper-Pearson intervals, can be drawn up with a computer program developed by K. Klauer. (SLD)

  16. Ethnolinguistic Vitality, Self-Confidence and Second Language Proficiency: An Investigation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Labrie, Normand; Clement, Richard

    1986-01-01

    Ninth-grade Francophone students (N=95) living in a bicultural milieu responded to tests including scales of ethnolinguistic vitality, attitudes, motivation, self-confidence, and second language competence and usage. Analyses indicated that contact with Anglophones and self-confidence with English as a second language were related to motivation,…

  17. An Introduction to Confidence Intervals for Both Statistical Estimates and Effect Sizes.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Capraro, Mary Margaret

    This paper summarizes methods of estimating confidence intervals, including classical intervals and intervals for effect sizes. The recent American Psychological Association (APA) Task Force on Statistical Inference report suggested that confidence intervals should always be reported, and the fifth edition of the APA "Publication Manual" (2001)…

  18. Seeking out Challenges to Develop L2 Self-Confidence: A Language Learner's Journey to Proficiency

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Edwads, Emily; Roger, Peter Stewart

    2015-01-01

    As one constituent of second language (L2) motivation, L2 "self-­confidence" has been shown to be a significant predictor of language proficiency. More recently, L2 self-­confidence has been studied as part of the "willingness to communicate" (WTC) construct. Less is known, however, about the processes by which learners develop…

  19. Evaluating Independent Proportions for Statistical Difference, Equivalence, Indeterminacy, and Trivial Difference Using Inferential Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tryon, Warren W.; Lewis, Charles

    2009-01-01

    Tryon presented a graphic inferential confidence interval (ICI) approach to analyzing two independent and dependent means for statistical difference, equivalence, replication, indeterminacy, and trivial difference. Tryon and Lewis corrected the reduction factor used to adjust descriptive confidence intervals (DCIs) to create ICIs and introduced…

  20. What Confidence Intervals "Really" Do and Why They Are So Important for Middle Grades Educational Research

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Skidmore, Susan Troncoso

    2009-01-01

    Recommendations made by major educational and psychological organizations (American Educational Research Association, 2006; American Psychological Association, 2001) call for researchers to regularly report confidence intervals. The purpose of the present paper is to provide support for the use of confidence intervals. To contextualize this…

  1. Computation of Confidence Intervals for Growth Performance in Determination of Safe Harbor Eligibility

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mulvenon, Sean W.; Stegman, Charles E.

    2006-01-01

    As part of No Child Left Behind (NCLB) legislation, many states are using confidence intervals to determine a range of scores for evaluating a school system. More specifically, the states are employing confidence intervals to help minimize measurement error in determining a school system's performance. The methodology and techniques employed in…

  2. Current Research on Parallel Measures of Interests and Confidence for Basic Dimensions of Vocational Activity

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Betz, Nancy E.; Rottinghaus, Patrick J.

    2006-01-01

    This article begins with a rationale for and review of parallel measures of self-efficacy (confidence) and interests for basic dimensions of vocational activity. Recent development of and research on the Expanded Skills Confidence Inventory, Campbell Interest and Skills Survey, Kuder Skills Assessment, and Inventory of Work-Relevant Abilities are…

  3. Measuring the Confidence of 8th Grade Taiwanese Students' Knowledge of Acids and Bases

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Tsai, Chun-Yen

    2012-01-01

    The present study investigated whether gender differences were present on the confidence judgments made by 8th grade Taiwanese students on the accuracy of their responses to acid-base test items. A total of 147 (76 male, 71 female) students provided item-specific confidence judgments during a test of their knowledge of acids and bases. Using the…

  4. "But I Thought I Knew That!" Student Confidence Judgments on Course Examinations in Introductory Psychology

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nevid, Jeffrey S.; Cheney, Brianna; Thompson, Clarissa

    2015-01-01

    Students in an introductory psychology class rated their level of confidence in their answers to exam questions on four multiple-choice exams through the course of a semester. Correlations between confidence judgments and accuracy (correct vs. incorrect) at the individual item level showed modest but significant relationships for item sets scaled…

  5. Relationships between Special Education Confidence, Knowledge, and Selected Demographics for Agricultural Education Student Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kessell, John; Wingenbach, Gary J.; Lawver, David

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to describe the relationship between special education confidence, knowledge, and selected demographics of agricultural education student teachers in the American Association of Agricultural Education southern region. A significant, low, positive association existed between total confidence and knowledge of providing…

  6. The Relationship between a Women's Leadership Development Program and Participant Self-Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jennings, Janelle Perron

    2009-01-01

    According to Lundeberg, Fox, and Punccohar (1994), the reason that there are fewer women in certain professions is because of a lack of self-confidence. In a review of the literature, they found studies reporting a lack of self-confidence in sixth-grade girls, high school students, and women in undergraduate and graduate school. In her work on…

  7. Teaching Civic Topics in Four Societies: Examining National Context and Teacher Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Alviar-Martin, Theresa; Randall, Jennifer D.; Usher, Ellen L.; Engelhard, George

    2008-01-01

    The authors examined the confidence of teachers from Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, and the United States (N = 1,375) to address civic topics with their students. The authors also used differential item functioning models to examine responses to items from the Teacher Confidence Scale of the International Association for the Evaluation of Educational…

  8. Personality, Peer Relations, and Self-Confidence as Predictors of Happiness and Loneliness.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheng, Helen; Furnham, Adrian

    2002-01-01

    Examines to what extent peer relations, self-confidence, and school performance correlate with self-rated happiness and loneliness in adolescents. Personality traits, self-confidence, friendship, and school grades were all significantly oppositely correlated with happiness and loneliness. Regressional analysis revealed that extraversion and…

  9. Written Language Disorders: Speech-Language Pathologists' Training, Knowledge, and Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blood, Gordon W.; Mamett, Callie; Gordon, Rebecca; Blood, Ingrid M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: This study examined speech-language pathologists' (SLPs') perceptions of their (a) educational and clinical training in evaluating and treating written language disorders, (b) knowledge bases in this area, (c) sources of knowledge about written language disorders, (d) confidence levels, and (e) predictors of confidence in working with…

  10. Investigating Aspects of the Language Learner's Confidence: An Application of the Theory of Signal Detection.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yule, George; And Others

    1985-01-01

    Describes a study of the role of confidence in the performance of English as a second language learners on a listening test. Some analytic procedures from the Theory of Signal Detection were applied. Results show the possibility of substantial differences in individual performance in terms of self-monitoring ability and confidence. (Author/SED)

  11. Demographic correlates of paternity confidence and pregnancy outcomes among Albuquerque men.

    PubMed

    Anderson, Kermyt G; Kaplan, Hillard; Lancaster, Jane B

    2006-12-01

    We examine the demographic correlates of paternity confidence, or men's assessment of the likelihood that they are the genetic father of a particular child. Evolutionary theory predicts that men will provide less parental investment for putative genetic offspring who are unlikely to be their actual offspring, but confidence of paternity has not been as extensively examined as its importance would merit. Using self-reported data on paternity confidence in 3,360 pregnancies reported by men living in Albuquerque, New Mexico, we find that low paternity confidence is more common among unmarried couples and for unplanned pregnancies. We also find that men are more likely not to state paternity confidence (i.e., they refuse to answer the question) if a pregnancy is unplanned. We additionally examine the pregnancy outcomes associated with confidence of paternity. We find that low paternity confidence pregnancies are significantly more likely to be aborted, and pregnancies for which paternity confidence is unstated are more likely to be aborted or to miscarry. Both abortion and miscarriage are associated with unmarried couples, with unplanned pregnancies, and with couples who have fewer children together.

  12. 78 FR 64413 - Proposed Waste Confidence Rule and Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-10-29

    .... Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) has rescheduled the Waste Confidence public meetings it initially... prior to ultimate disposal (the proposed Waste Confidence rule) and the draft generic environmental... October 2013. For the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Keith I. McConnell, Director, Waste...

  13. A Comparison of Methods for Estimating Confidence Intervals for Omega-Squared Effect Size

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Finch, W. Holmes; French, Brian F.

    2012-01-01

    Effect size use has been increasing in the past decade in many research areas. Confidence intervals associated with effect sizes are encouraged to be reported. Prior work has investigated the performance of confidence interval estimation with Cohen's d. This study extends this line of work to the analysis of variance case with more than two…

  14. Eyewitness confidence in simultaneous and sequential lineups: a criterion shift account for sequential mistaken identification overconfidence.

    PubMed

    Dobolyi, David G; Dodson, Chad S

    2013-12-01

    Confidence judgments for eyewitness identifications play an integral role in determining guilt during legal proceedings. Past research has shown that confidence in positive identifications is strongly associated with accuracy. Using a standard lineup recognition paradigm, we investigated accuracy using signal detection and ROC analyses, along with the tendency to choose a face with both simultaneous and sequential lineups. We replicated past findings of reduced rates of choosing with sequential as compared to simultaneous lineups, but notably found an accuracy advantage in favor of simultaneous lineups. Moreover, our analysis of the confidence-accuracy relationship revealed two key findings. First, we observed a sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect: despite an overall reduction in false alarms, confidence for false alarms that did occur was higher with sequential lineups than with simultaneous lineups, with no differences in confidence for correct identifications. This sequential mistaken identification overconfidence effect is an expected byproduct of the use of a more conservative identification criterion with sequential than with simultaneous lineups. Second, we found a steady drop in confidence for mistaken identifications (i.e., foil identifications and false alarms) from the first to the last face in sequential lineups, whereas confidence in and accuracy of correct identifications remained relatively stable. Overall, we observed that sequential lineups are both less accurate and produce higher confidence false identifications than do simultaneous lineups. Given the increasing prominence of sequential lineups in our legal system, our data argue for increased scrutiny and possibly a wholesale reevaluation of this lineup format. PMID:24188335

  15. Does Classroom Management Coursework Influence Pre-service Teachers' Perceived Preparedness or Confidence?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    O'Neill, Sue; Stephenson, Jennifer

    2012-01-01

    There has been conjecture that completing focused coursework units on classroom management during pre-service teacher preparation might lead to increased feelings of preparedness and confidence. This study reports the preparedness in managing specific problem behaviours, familiarity, and confidence in using management strategies and models of…

  16. "Confidence Intervals for Gamma-family Measures of Ordinal Association": Correction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Psychological Methods, 2008

    2008-01-01

    Reports an error in "Confidence intervals for gamma-family measures of ordinal association" by Carol M. Woods (Psychological Methods, 2007[Jun], Vol 12[2], 185-204). The note corrects simulation results presented in the article concerning the performance of confidence intervals (CIs) for Spearman's r-sub(s). An error in the author's C++ code…

  17. Relating Use of Digital Technology by Pre-Service Teachers to Confidence: A Singapore Survey

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yeung, Alexander Seeshing; Lim, Kam Ming; Tay, Eng Guan; Lam-Chiang, Audrey Cheausim; Hui, Chenri

    2012-01-01

    Teachers today are expected to be able to apply a wide range of digital technologies in the classroom. Initial teacher education programs should prepare teachers to apply them with confidence. Pre-service teachers in Singapore responded to a survey on use of technologies in their personal lives and in their teaching, and how confident they were in…

  18. A Survey Study of Early Childhood Teachers' Beliefs and Confidence about Teaching Early Math

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Chen, Jie-Qi; McCray, Jennifer; Adams, Margaret; Leow, Christine

    2014-01-01

    This study reports on results from the Early Mathematics Beliefs and Confidence Survey, administered to 346 preschool teachers in a large public school system in the Midwest. Survey results depict a much more positive view of teachers' beliefs and confidence in early math teaching than previously reported. Results also suggest that teacher…

  19. Teaching Evolution to Students with Compromised Backgrounds & Lack of Confidence about Evolution--Is It Possible?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schauer, Alexandria; Cotner, Sehoya; Moore, Randy

    2014-01-01

    Students regard evolutionary theory differently than science in general. Students' reported confidence in their ability to understand science in general (e.g., posing scientific questions, interpreting tables and graphs, and understanding the content of their biology course) significantly outweighed their confidence in understanding…

  20. How Is Gender Self-Confidence Related to Subjective Well-Being?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoffman, Rose Marie

    2006-01-01

    This study of ethnically diverse participants explored the relationship of gender self-confidence to subjective well-being. The 2 components of gender self-confidence (gender self-definition and gender self-acceptance) were assessed using the Hoffman Gender Scale (R. M. Hoffman, 1996; R. M. Hoffman, L. D. Borders, & J. A. Hattie, 2000). The…