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Sample records for activities-specific balance confidence

  1. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society. PMID:22919491

  2. Reliability, Validity, and Sensitivity to Change of Turkish Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale in Patients with Unilateral Peripheral Vestibular Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karapolat, Hale; Eyigor, Sibel; Kirazli, Yesim; Celebisoy, Nese; Bilgen, Cem; Kirazli, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, construct validity, and sensitivity to change of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) in people with peripheral vestibular disorder. Thirty-three patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disease were included in the study. Patients were…

  3. Factors Associated With Balance Confidence in Older Adults With Health Conditions Affecting the Balance Vestibular System

    PubMed Central

    Marchetti, Gregory F.; Whitney, Susan L.; Redfern, Mark S.; Furman, Joseph M.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To determine the functional, clinical, and comorbid health condition factors that contribute to balance confidence in persons with balance or vestibular disorders, or both. Design Cross-sectional descriptive. Setting Tertiary care center for balance disorders. Participants Older adults (N95) with signs and symptoms of vestibular dysfunction. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measures Activity-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) was administered on examination for complaints of balance, postural instability, or both. Results Balance confidence as measured by the ABC was associated with functional balance performance on the Timed Up & Go test and the Dynamic Gait Index. Duration of symptoms and general health-related quality of life (as measured by the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey) were significant covariates of balance confidence. Self reported treatment for anxiety, depression, or both, significantly reduced balance confidence. Conclusions Balance confidence is a complex construct in older adults with signs and symptoms of balance or vestibular dysfunction, or both. Decreased balance confidence in performing functional activities is associated with actual balance performance, duration of vestibular symptoms, general healthrelated quality of life, and the presence of comorbid psychological and visual impairments. Understanding these relationships can potentially improve management of older adults who present with balance or vestibular disease, or both. PMID:22032223

  4. Golfers have better balance control and confidence than healthy controls.

    PubMed

    Gao, Kelly L; Hui-Chan, Christina W Y; Tsang, William W N

    2011-11-01

    In a well-executed golf swing, golfers must maintain good balance and precise control of posture. Golfing also requires prolonged walking over uneven ground such as a hilly course. Therefore, repeated golf practice may enhance balance control and confidence in the golfers. The objective is to investigate whether older golfers had better balance control and confidence than non-golfing older, healthy adults. This is a cross-sectional study, conducted at a University-based rehabilitation center. Eleven golfers and 12 control subjects (all male; mean age: 66.2 ± 6.8 and 71.3 ± 6.6 years, respectively) were recruited. Two balance control tests were administered: (1) functional reach test which measured subjects' maximum forward distance in standing; (2) sensory organization test (SOT) which examined subjects' abilities to use somatosensory, visual, and vestibular inputs to control body sway during stance. The modified Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) determined subject's balance confidence in daily activities. The golfers were found to achieve significantly longer distance in the functional reach test than controls. They manifested significantly better balance than controls in the visual ratio and vestibular ratio, but not the somatosensory ratio of the SOT. The golfers also reported significantly higher balance confidence score ratios. Furthermore, older adults' modified ABC score ratios showed positive correlations with functional reach, visual and vestibular ratios, but not with somatosensory ratio. Golfing is an activity which may enhance both the physical and psychological aspects of balance control. Significant correlations between these measures reveal the importance of the balance control under reduced or conflicting sensory conditions in older adults' balance confidence in their daily activities. Since cause-and-effect could not be established in the present cross-sectional study, further prospective intervention design is warranted. PMID

  5. The Relationship Between Balance Confidence and Cognitive Motor Interference in Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Wajda, Douglas A; Roeing, Kathleen L; McAuley, Edward; Motl, Robert W; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2016-01-01

    Gait and cognitive impairments are compounded when performed simultaneously in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS), and this is termed cognitive-motor interference (CMI). The authors examined whether CMI is related to balance confidence in individuals with MS. They hypothesized that individuals with low balance confidence would exhibit greater CMI possibly indicating a behavioral modification during dual task conditions. Thirty-four individuals with MS completed Activity-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and a cognitive assessment as well as single and dual task walking trials at a comfortable pace. CMI was calculated as the percent change in walking velocity and cognitive task performance from single- to dual-task conditions and termed dual-task cost (DTC). A correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationships between DTCs of gait and cognitive performance and ABC scores. The correlation analysis revealed no significant association between ABC and DTC of walking velocity (p > .05). A significant relationship between balance confidence and DTCs of cognition was observed. The observed relationships suggest individuals with MS tend to alter their cognitive performance rather than manipulating their gait when confronted with a dual task. Overall, the findings partially support a behavioral explanation of CMI in individuals with MS. PMID:25988565

  6. Relationships between fear of falling, balance confidence, and control of balance, gait, and reactive stepping in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

    PubMed

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Inness, Elizabeth L; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Fear of falling is common in individuals with stroke; however, the associations between fear of falling, balance confidence, and the control of balance and gait are not well understood for this population. This study aimed to determine whether, at the time of admission to in-patient rehabilitation, specific features of balance and gait differed between individuals with stroke who did and did not report fear of falling, and whether these features were related to balance confidence. Individuals with stroke entering in-patient rehabilitation were asked if they were afraid of falling, and completed the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale. Participants performed quiet standing, gait, and reactive stepping tasks, and specific measures were extracted for each (quiet standing: centre of pressure amplitude, between-limb synchronization, and Romberg quotients; gait: walking velocity, double support time, and variability measures; reactive stepping: number of steps, frequency of grasp reactions, and frequency of assists). No significant differences were identified between individuals with and without fear of falling. Balance confidence was negatively related to centre of pressure amplitude, double support time, and step time variability, and positively related to walking velocity. Low balance confidence was related to poor quiet standing balance control and cautious behavior when walking in individuals with sub-acute stroke. While the causal relationship between balance confidence and the control of balance and gait is unclear from the current work, these findings suggest there may be a role for interventions to increase balance confidence among individuals with stroke, in order to improve functional mobility. PMID:26482234

  7. Functional Mobility Performance and Balance Confidence in Older Adults after Sensorimotor Adaptation Training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buccello-Stout, Regina R.; Cromwell, Ronita L.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Weaver, G. D.

    2010-01-01

    Research indicates a main contributor of injury in older adults is from falling. The decline in sensory systems limits information needed to successfully maneuver through the environment. The objective of this study was to determine if prolonged exposure to the realignment of perceptual-motor systems increases adaptability of balance, and if balance confidence improves after training. A total of 16 older adults between ages 65-85 were randomized to a control group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a static visual scene) and an experimental group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a rotating visual scene). Prior to visual exposure, participants completed six trials of walking through a soft foamed obstacle course. Participants came in twice a week for 4 weeks to complete training of walking on a treadmill and viewing the visual scene for 20 minutes each session. Participants completed the obstacle course after training and four weeks later. Average time, penalty, and Activity Balance Confidence Scale scores were computed for both groups across testing times. The older adults who trained, significantly improved their time through the obstacle course F (2, 28) = 9.41, p < 0.05, as well as reduced their penalty scores F (2, 28) = 21.03, p < 0.05, compared to those who did not train. There was no difference in balance confidence scores between groups across testing times F (2, 28) = 0.503, p > 0.05. Although the training group improved mobility through the obstacle course, there were no differences between the groups in balance confidence.

  8. Effect of a community-based Argentine tango dance program on functional balance and confidence in older adults.

    PubMed

    McKinley, Patricia; Jacobson, Allison; Leroux, Alain; Bednarczyk, Victoria; Rossignol, Michel; Fung, Joyce

    2008-10-01

    Tango-dancing and walking programs are compared in nondemented seniors at risk for falls. Fallers (N = 30) age 62-91 were randomly assigned to a 10-wk (40 hr, 2 hr 2x/wk) tango class or walk group. The Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale, sit-to-stand scores, and normal and fast walk were measured pre-, post-, and 1 month postintervention. Two-way repeated-measures ANOVAs indicated a significant main effect (p < .01) for time on all measures. Group and interaction effects for ABC led to improvement only in tango because of high baseline mean for the walk group. Clinical improvements measured using Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly scoring were greater for the tango group. From these preliminary results it is suggested that although both interventions are effective activities for increasing strength and walk speed, tango might result in greater improvements than walking in balance skills and in walking speed in the 10-wk intervention. The study needs to be repeated with a greater sample size to determine the effectiveness of walking on fear of falling. PMID:19033604

  9. Analysis of confidence in continental-scale groundwater recharge estimates for Africa using a distributed water balance model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, Jonathan; Mansour, Majdi; Bonsor, Helen; Pachocka, Magdalena; Wang, Lei; MacDonald, Alan; Macdonald, David; Bloomfield, John

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing need for improved access to reliable water in Africa as population and food production increases. Currently approximately 300 million people do not have access to a secure source of safe drinking water. To meet these current and future demands, groundwater will need to be increasingly abstracted; groundwater is more reliable than surface water sources due to its relatively long response time to meteorological stresses and therefore is likely to be a more secure water resource in a more variable climate. Recent studies also quantified the volumes of groundwater potentially available which suggest that, if exploited, groundwater could help to meet the demand for fresh water. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how these resources may respond in the future due to changes in groundwater recharge and abstraction. Understanding and quantifying groundwater recharge is vital as it forms a primary indicator of the sustainability of underlying groundwater resources. Computational hydrological models provide a means to do this, but the complexity of recharge processes in Africa mean that these simulations are often highly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate our confidence in simulating groundwater recharge over Africa based on a sensitivity analysis using a distributed hydrological model developed by the British Geological Survey, ZOODRM. The model includes land surface, canopy, river, soil and groundwater components. Each component is able to exchange water and as such, forms a distributed water balance of Africa. The components have been parameterised using available spatial datasets of African vegetation, land-use, soil and hydrogeology while the remaining parameters have been estimated by calibrating the model to available river flow data. Continental-scale gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets, based on remotely sensed and ground observations, have been used to force the model. Following calibration, the

  10. Wii Fit balance training or progressive balance training in patients with chronic stroke: a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Yatar, Gozde Iyigun; Yildirim, Sibel Aksu

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to compare the effects of Wii Fit balance training (WBT) and progressive balance training (PBT) approaches on balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living in chronic stroke patients. [Subjects] A total of 30 patients were randomized into the WBT (n=15) and PBT (n=15) groups. [Methods] All of the subjects received exercise training based on a neurodevelopemental approach in addition to either Wii Fit or progressive balance training for total of 1 hour a day, 3 days per week for 4 weeks. Primary measurements were static balance function measured with a Wii Balance Board and dynamic balance function assessed with the Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up and Go test, Dynamic Gait Index, and Functional Reach Test. Secondary measures were balance confidence assessed with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale and activities of daily living evaluated with the Frenchay Activity Index. [Results] There was not remarkable difference between the two treatments in dynamic balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living. [Conclusion] Although both of the approaches were found to be effective in improving the balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living, neither of them were more preferable than the other for the treatment of balance in patients with chronic stroke. PMID:25995576

  11. BALANCE

    DOEpatents

    Carmichael, H.

    1953-01-01

    A torsional-type analytical balance designed to arrive at its equilibrium point more quickly than previous balances is described. In order to prevent external heat sources creating air currents inside the balance casing that would reiard the attainment of equilibrium conditions, a relatively thick casing shaped as an inverted U is placed over the load support arms and the balance beam. This casing is of a metal of good thernnal conductivity characteristics, such as copper or aluminum, in order that heat applied to one portion of the balance is quickly conducted to all other sensitive areas, thus effectively preventing the fornnation of air currents caused by unequal heating of the balance.

  12. Balancing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harteveld, Casper

    At many occasions we are asked to achieve a “balance” in our lives: when it comes, for example, to work and food. Balancing is crucial in game design as well as many have pointed out. In games with a meaningful purpose, however, balancing is remarkably different. It involves the balancing of three different worlds, the worlds of Reality, Meaning, and Play. From the experience of designing Levee Patroller, I observed that different types of tensions can come into existence that require balancing. It is possible to conceive of within-worlds dilemmas, between-worlds dilemmas, and trilemmas. The first, the within-world dilemmas, only take place within one of the worlds. We can think, for example, of a user interface problem which just relates to the world of Play. The second, the between-worlds dilemmas, have to do with a tension in which two worlds are predominantly involved. Choosing between a cartoon or a realistic style concerns, for instance, a tension between Reality and Play. Finally, the trilemmas are those in which all three worlds play an important role. For each of the types of tensions, I will give in this level a concrete example from the development of Levee Patroller. Although these examples come from just one game, I think the examples can be exemplary for other game development projects as they may represent stereotypical tensions. Therefore, to achieve harmony in any of these forthcoming games, it is worthwhile to study the struggles we had to deal with.

  13. Wii Fit Balance Board Playing Improves Balance and Gait in Parkinson Disease

    PubMed Central

    Mhatre, Priya V.; Vilares, Iris; Stibb, Stacy M.; Albert, Mark V.; Pickering, Laura; Marciniak, Christina M.; Kording, Konrad; Toledo, Santiago

    2014-01-01

    Objective To assess the effect of exercise training by using the Nintendo Wii Fit video game and balance board system on balance and gait in adults with Parkinson disease (PD). Design A prospective interventional cohort study. Setting An outpatient group exercise class. Participants Ten subjects with PD, Hoehn and Yahr stages 2.5 or 3, with a mean age of 67.1 years; 4 men, 6 women. Interventions The subjects participated in supervised group exercise sessions 3 times per week for 8 weeks by practicing 3 different Wii balance board games (marble tracking, skiing, and bubble rafting) adjusted for their individualized function level. The subjects trained for 10 minutes per game, a total of 30 minutes training per session. Main Outcome Measurements Pre-and postexercise training, a physical therapist evaluated subjects’ function by using the Berg Balance Scale, Dynamic Gait Index, and Sharpened Romberg with eyes open and closed. Postural sway was assessed at rest and with tracking tasks by using the Wii balance board. The subjects rated their confidence in balance by using the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale and depression on the Geriatric Depression Scale. Results Balance as measured by the Berg Balance Scale improved significantly, with an increase of 3.3 points (P = .016). The Dynamic Gait Index improved as well (mean increase, 2.8; P = .004), as did postural sway measured with the balance board (decreased variance in stance with eyes open by 31%; P = .049). Although the Sharpened Romberg with eyes closed increased by 6.85 points and with eyes opened by 3.3 points, improvements neared significance only for eyes closed (P = .07 versus P = .188). There were no significant changes on patient ratings for the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (mean decrease, −1%; P = .922) or the Geriatric Depression Scale (mean increase, 2.2; P = .188). Conclusions An 8-week exercise training class by using the Wii Fit balance board improved selective measures of

  14. Confidence rating for eutrophication assessments.

    PubMed

    Brockmann, Uwe H; Topcu, Dilek H

    2014-05-15

    Confidence of monitoring data is dependent on their variability and representativeness of sampling in space and time. Whereas variability can be assessed as statistical confidence limits, representative sampling is related to equidistant sampling, considering gradients or changing rates at sampling gaps. By the proposed method both aspects are combined, resulting in balanced results for examples of total nitrogen concentrations in the German Bight/North Sea. For assessing sampling representativeness surface areas, vertical profiles and time periods are divided into regular sections for which individually the representativeness is calculated. The sums correspond to the overall representativeness of sampling in the defined area/time period. Effects of not sampled sections are estimated along parallel rows by reducing their confidence, considering their distances to next sampled sections and the interrupted gradients/changing rates. Confidence rating of time sections is based on maximum differences of sampling rates at regular time steps and related means of concentrations. PMID:24680718

  15. Confidant Relations in Italy.

    PubMed

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-02-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  16. Confidant Relations in Italy

    PubMed Central

    Isaacs, Jenny; Soglian, Francesca; Hoffman, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Confidants are often described as the individuals with whom we choose to disclose personal, intimate matters. The presence of a confidant is associated with both mental and physical health benefits. In this study, 135 Italian adults responded to a structured questionnaire that asked if they had a confidant, and if so, to describe various features of the relationship. The vast majority of participants (91%) reported the presence of a confidant and regarded this relationship as personally important, high in mutuality and trust, and involving minimal lying. Confidants were significantly more likely to be of the opposite sex. Participants overall were significantly more likely to choose a spouse or other family member as their confidant, rather than someone outside of the family network. Familial confidants were generally seen as closer, and of greater value, than non-familial confidants. These findings are discussed within the context of Italian culture. PMID:27247641

  17. The Role of Clinical and Instrumented Outcome Measures in Balance Control of Individuals with Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Kanekar, Neeta; Aruin, Alexander S.

    2013-01-01

    Purpose. The aim of the study was to investigate differences in balance control between individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS) and healthy control subjects using clinical scales and instrumented measures of balance and determine relationships between balance measures, fatigue, and disability levels in individuals with MS with and without a history of falls. Method. Twelve individuals with MS and twelve healthy controls were evaluated using the Berg Balance and Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scales, Modified Clinical Test of Sensory Interaction on Balance, and Limits of Stability Tests as well as Fatigue Severity Scale and Barthel Index. Results. Mildly affected individuals with MS had significant balance performance deficits and poor balance confidence levels (P < 0.05). MS group had higher sway velocities and diminished stability limits (P < 0.05), significant sensory impairments, high fatigue and disability levels (P < 0.05). Sway velocity was a significant predictor of balance performance and the ability to move towards stability limits for the MS group. For the MS-fallers group, those with lower disability levels had faster movement velocities and better balance performance. Conclusion. Implementation of both clinical and instrumented tests of balance is important for the planning and evaluation of treatment outcomes in balance rehabilitation of people with MS. PMID:23766907

  18. Fear of falling and balance ability in older men: the priest study.

    PubMed

    Klima, Dennis W; Newton, Roberta A; Keshner, Emily A; Davey, Adam

    2013-10-01

    Studies examining fear of falling among older adult men remain limited. The objectives of this study were to compare balance confidence in 2 age cohorts of older clergy and identify predictive determinants of balance confidence in a liturgical research initiative. Participants included 131 community-dwelling Roman Catholic priests age 60-97 yr living in religious communities in 10 mid-Atlantic states. Subjects completed the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC), Berg Balance Scale (BBS), timed up-and-go (TUG) test, and 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS). Younger priests (60-74 yr) demonstrated a significantly higher ABC score than the older cohort (75 and above yr) of priests (89.1 ± 12.6 vs.78.4 ± 13.9, p = .001). Confidence was significantly correlated with BBS (rho = .69, p < .01), TUG (r = -.58, p < .01), and GDS (r = -.39, p < .01) scores. A stepwise-regression model demonstrated that balance ability, mood, assistive-device use, and physical activity predicted 52% of the variance in balance confidence. PMID:23170754

  19. Understanding Academic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2006-01-01

    This paper draws on the psychological theories of self-efficacy and the self-concept to understand students' self-confidence in academic study in higher education as measured by the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC). In doing this, expectancy-value theory and self-efficacy theory are considered and contrasted with self-concept and…

  20. Feldenkrais Method Balance Classes Improve Balance in Older Adults: A Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    Connors, Karol A.; Galea, Mary P.; Said, Catherine M.

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of Feldenkrais Method balance classes on balance and mobility in older adults. This was a prospective non-randomized controlled study with pre/post measures. The setting for this study was the general community. A convenience sample of 26 community-dwelling older adults (median age 75 years) attending Feldenkrais Method balance classes formed the Intervention group. Thirty-seven volunteers were recruited for the Control group (median age 76.5 years). A series of Feldenkrais Method balance classes (the 33312Getting Grounded Gracefully33313 series), two classes per week for 10 weeks, were conducted. Main outcome measures were Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) questionnaire, Four Square Step Test (FSST), self-selected gait speed (using GAITRite instrumented gait mat). At re-testing, the Intervention group showed significant improvement on all of the measures (ABC, P = .016, FSST, P = .001, gait speed, P < .001). The Control group improved significantly on one measure (FSST, P < .001). Compared to the Control group, the Intervention group made a significant improvement in their ABC score (P = .005), gait speed (P = .017) and FSST time (P = .022). These findings suggest that Feldenkrais Method balance classes may improve mobility and balance in older adults. PMID:19553385

  1. Feldenkrais method balance classes improve balance in older adults: a controlled trial.

    PubMed

    Connors, Karol A; Galea, Mary P; Said, Catherine M

    2011-01-01

    The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of Feldenkrais Method balance classes on balance and mobility in older adults. This was a prospective non-randomized controlled study with pre/post measures. The setting for this study was the general community. A convenience sample of 26 community-dwelling older adults (median age 75 years) attending Feldenkrais Method balance classes formed the Intervention group. Thirty-seven volunteers were recruited for the Control group (median age 76.5 years). A series of Feldenkrais Method balance classes (the 33312Getting Grounded Gracefully33313 series), two classes per week for 10 weeks, were conducted. Main outcome measures were Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) questionnaire, Four Square Step Test (FSST), self-selected gait speed (using GAITRite instrumented gait mat). At re-testing, the Intervention group showed significant improvement on all of the measures (ABC, P = .016, FSST, P = .001, gait speed, P < .001). The Control group improved significantly on one measure (FSST, P < .001). Compared to the Control group, the Intervention group made a significant improvement in their ABC score (P = .005), gait speed (P = .017) and FSST time (P = .022). These findings suggest that Feldenkrais Method balance classes may improve mobility and balance in older adults. PMID:19553385

  2. Neurophysiology of perceived confidence.

    PubMed

    Graziano, Martin; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

    2010-01-01

    In a partial report paradigm, subjects observe during a brief presentation a cluttered field and after some time - typically ranging from 100 ms to a second - are asked to report a subset of the presented elements. A vast buffer of information is transiently available to be broadcasted which, if not retrieved in time, fades rapidly without reaching consciousness. An interesting feature of this experiment is that objective performance and subjective confidence is decoupled. This converts this paradigm in an ideal vehicle to understand the brain dynamics of the construction of confidence. Here we report a high-density EEG experiment in which we infer elements of the EEG response which are indicative of subjective confidence. We find that an early response during encoding partially correlates with perceived confidence. However, the bulk of the weight of subjective confidence is determined during a late, N400-like waveform, during the retrieval stage. This shows that we can find markers of access to internal, subjective states, that are uncoupled from objective response and stimulus properties of the task, and we propose that this can be used with decoding methods of EEG to infer subjective mental states. PMID:21096220

  3. Confidence Calculation with AMV+

    SciTech Connect

    Fossum, A.F.

    1999-02-19

    The iterative advanced mean value algorithm (AMV+), introduced nearly ten years ago, is now widely used as a cost-effective probabilistic structural analysis tool when the use of sampling methods is cost prohibitive (Wu et al., 1990). The need to establish confidence bounds on calculated probabilities arises because of the presence of uncertainties in measured means and variances of input random variables. In this paper an algorithm is proposed that makes use of the AMV+ procedure and analytically derived probability sensitivities to determine confidence bounds on calculated probabilities.

  4. Predicting Systemic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falke, Stephanie Inez

    2009-01-01

    Using a mixed method approach, this study explored which educational factors predicted systemic confidence in master's level marital and family therapy (MFT) students, and whether or not the impact of these factors was influenced by student beliefs and their perception of their supervisor's beliefs about the value of systemic practice. One hundred…

  5. SystemConfidence

    2012-09-25

    SystemConfidence is a benchmark developed at ORNL which can measure statistical variation in which the user can plot. The portions of the code which manage the collection of the histograms and computing statistics on the histograms were designed with the intent that we could use these functions in other codes.

  6. Computing Graphical Confidence Bounds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mezzacappa, M. A.

    1983-01-01

    Approximation for graphical confidence bounds is simple enough to run on programmable calculator. Approximation is used in lieu of numerical tables not always available, and exact calculations, which often require rather sizable computer resources. Approximation verified for collection of up to 50 data points. Method used to analyze tile-strength data on Space Shuttle thermal-protection system.

  7. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an…

  8. European security, nuclear weapons and public confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Gutteridge, W.

    1982-01-01

    This book presents papers on nuclear arms control in Europe. Topics considered include political aspects, the balance of power, nuclear disarmament in Europe, the implications of new conventional technologies, the neutron bomb, theater nuclear weapons, arms control in Northern Europe, naval confidence-building measures in the Baltic, the strategic balance in the Arctic Ocean, Arctic resources, threats to European stability, developments in South Africa, economic cooperation in Europe, European collaboration in science and technology after Helsinki, European cooperation in the area of electric power, and economic cooperation as a factor for the development of European security and cooperation.

  9. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  10. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with. PMID:23227579

  11. Confidence through consensus: a neural mechanism for uncertainty monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Paz, Luciano; Insabato, Andrea; Zylberberg, Ariel; Deco, Gustavo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-01-01

    Models that integrate sensory evidence to a threshold can explain task accuracy, response times and confidence, yet it is still unclear how confidence is encoded in the brain. Classic models assume that confidence is encoded in some form of balance between the evidence integrated in favor and against the selected option. However, recent experiments that measure the sensory evidence’s influence on choice and confidence contradict these classic models. We propose that the decision is taken by many loosely coupled modules each of which represent a stochastic sample of the sensory evidence integral. Confidence is then encoded in the dispersion between modules. We show that our proposal can account for the well established relations between confidence, and stimuli discriminability and reaction times, as well as the fluctuations influence on choice and confidence. PMID:26907162

  12. Simulation integration with confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  13. Improved investor confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Anderson, J.

    1995-10-01

    Results of a financial ranking survey of power projects show reasonably strong activity when compared to previous surveys. Perhaps the most notable trend is the continued increase in the number of international deals being reported. Nearly 62 percent of the transactions reported were for non-US projects. This increase will likely expand with time as developers and lenders gain confidence in certain regions. For the remainder of 1995 and into 1996 it is likely that financial activity will continue at a steady pace. A number of projects in various markets are poised to reach financial close relatively soon. Developers, investment bankers, and governments are all gaining experience and becoming more comfortable with the process.

  14. Optimally combined confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janot, P.; Le Diberder, F.

    1998-02-01

    An analytical and optimal procedure to combine statistically independent sets of confidence levels on a quantity is presented. This procedure does not impose any constraint on the methods followed by each analysis to derive its own limit. It incorporates the a priori statistical power of each of the analyses to be combined, in order to optimize the overall sensitivity. It can, in particular, be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several analyses searching for the Higgs boson in different decay channels, with different selection efficiencies, mass resolution and expected background. It can also be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several experiments (e.g. ALEPH, DELPHI, L3 and OPAL, at LEP 2) independently of the method followed by each of these experiments to derive their own limit. A method to derive the limit set by one analysis is also presented, along with an unbiased prescription to optimize the expected mass limit in the no-signal-hypothesis.

  15. Ellenore Flood's Skills Confidence Inventory.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Subich, Linda Mezydlo

    1998-01-01

    Presents background information on the Skills Confidence Inventory (SCI) and the construct it assesses. Interprets the skills confidence and interest profiles of a 29-year-old female high school teacher using the SCI and the Strong Interest Inventory. (MKA)

  16. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  17. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  18. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  19. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention. PMID:21392352

  20. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  1. Confidence limits and their errors

    SciTech Connect

    Rajendran Raja

    2002-03-22

    Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use especially in cases of limited statistics. We introduce the concept of statistical errors of confidence limits and argue that not only should limits be calculated but also their errors in order to represent the results of the analysis to the fullest. We show that comparison of two different limits from two different experiments becomes easier when their errors are also quoted. Use of errors of confidence limits will lead to abatement of the debate on which method is best suited to calculate confidence limits.

  2. Measuring Vaccine Confidence: Introducing a Global Vaccine Confidence Index

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Heidi J; Schulz, William S; Tucker, Joseph D; Smith, David M D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Public confidence in vaccination is vital to the success of immunisation programmes worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of vaccine confidence is therefore of great importance for global public health. Few published studies permit global comparisons of vaccination sentiments and behaviours against a common metric. This article presents the findings of a multi-country survey of confidence in vaccines and immunisation programmes in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK) – these being the first results of a larger project to map vaccine confidence globally. Methods. Data were collected from a sample of the general population and from those with children under 5 years old against a core set of confidence questions. All surveys were conducted in the relevant local-language in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the UK. We examine confidence in immunisation programmes as compared to confidence in other government health services, the relationships between confidence in the system and levels of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, ultimate vaccination decisions, and their variation based on country contexts and demographic factors. Results. The numbers of respondents by country were: Georgia (n=1000); India (n=1259); Pakistan (n=2609); UK (n=2055); Nigerian households (n=12554); and Nigerian health providers (n=1272). The UK respondents with children under five years of age were more likely to hesitate to vaccinate, compared to other countries. Confidence in immunisation programmes was more closely associated with confidence in the broader health system in the UK (Spearman’s ρ=0.5990), compared to Nigeria (ρ=0.5477), Pakistan (ρ=0.4491), and India (ρ=0.4240), all of which ranked confidence in immunisation programmes higher than confidence in the broader health system. Georgia had the highest rate of vaccine refusals (6 %) among those who reported initial hesitation. In all other countries surveyed most

  3. Teaching Confidence Intervals Using Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagtvedt, Reidar; Jones, Gregory Todd; Jones, Kari

    2008-01-01

    Confidence intervals are difficult to teach, in part because most students appear to believe they understand how to interpret them intuitively. They rarely do. To help them abandon their misconception and achieve understanding, we have developed a simulation tool that encourages experimentation with multiple confidence intervals derived from the…

  4. A Review of Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mauk, Anne-Marie Kimbell

    This paper summarizes information leading to the recommendation that statistical significance testing be replaced, or at least accompanied by, the reporting of effect sizes and confidence intervals. It discusses the use of confidence intervals, noting that the recent report of the American Psychological Association Task Force on Statistical…

  5. Confidant Relations of the Aged.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tigges, Leann M.; And Others

    The confidant relationship is a qualitatively distinct dimension of the emotional support system of the aged, yet the composition of the confidant network has been largely neglected in research on aging. Persons (N=940) 60 years of age and older were interviewed about their socio-environmental setting. From the enumeration of their relatives,…

  6. Predicting confidence in flashbulb memories.

    PubMed

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Years after a shocking news event many people confidently report details of their flashbulb memories (e.g., what they were doing). People's confidence is a defining feature of their flashbulb memories, but it is not well understood. We tested a model that predicted confidence in flashbulb memories. In particular we examined whether people's social bond with the target of a news event predicts confidence. At a first session shortly after the death of Michael Jackson participants reported their sense of attachment to Michael Jackson, as well as their flashbulb memories and emotional and other reactions to Jackson's death. At a second session approximately 18 months later they reported their flashbulb memories and confidence in those memories. Results supported our proposed model. A stronger sense of attachment to Jackson was related to reports of more initial surprise, emotion, and rehearsal during the first session. Participants' bond with Michael Jackson predicted their confidence but not the consistency of their flashbulb memories 18 months later. We also examined whether participants' initial forecasts regarding the persistence of their flashbulb memories predicted the durability of their memories. Participants' initial forecasts were more strongly related to participants' subsequent confidence than to the actual consistency of their memories. PMID:23496003

  7. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... version of this page please turn Javascript on. Balance Problems About Balance Problems Have you ever felt dizzy, lightheaded, or ... dizziness problem during the past year. Why Good Balance is Important Having good balance means being able ...

  8. Relationship Between Cognitive Assessment and Balance Measures in Adolescents Referred for Vestibular Physical Therapy After Concussion

    PubMed Central

    Alsalaheen, Bara A.; Whitney, Susan L.; Marchetti, Gregory F.; Furman, Joseph M.; Kontos, Anthony P.; Collins, Michael W.; Sparto, Patrick J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between cognitive and balance performance in adolescents with concussion. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Tertiary. Patients Sixty patients. Interventions Correlation analyses were performed to describe the relationship between symptoms, cognitive measure, and balance measure at the time of initiation of vestibular physical therapy. Main Outcome Measures Cognitive performance was assessed using the Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT). The dizziness and balance function measures included dizziness severity rating, Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Functional Gait Assessment, gait speed, Timed “UP and GO,” Five Times Sit to Stand, and Sensory Organization Test (SOT). To account for multiple comparisons, the False Discovery Rate method was used. Results Performance measures of balance were significantly correlated with cognitive measures. Greater total symptom scores were related to greater impairment in the ABC and DHI (r = 0.35-0.39, P ≤ 0.008) and worse performance in condition 2 of the SOT (r = −0.48, P = 0.004). Among the ImPACT composite scores, lower memory scores were correlated with impaired balance performance measures (r = 0.37-0.59, P ≤ 0.012). Lower visual memory was also correlated with worse ABC scores. Conclusions The significant relationships reported between the cognitive performance scores and balance measures may reflect that similar levels of functioning exist across domains in individuals with protracted recovery who receive vestibular physical therapy. PMID:25706663

  9. Conquering Confidence: Reflections on a Women's Winter Expedition.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dudley, Catherine; Ferren, Sue; Glackmeyer, Heidi

    1999-01-01

    Three women undertook a four-day winter camping trip in the Adirondacks as their practicum in an outdoor and experiential-education course. Their description of the confidence gained and the balance between self-doubt and overconfidence is compared to walking in snowshoes. (TD)

  10. What Confidence Should Boards Give No-Confidence Votes?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    MacTaggart, Terrence

    2012-01-01

    As boards and presidents are increasingly in the vanguard of change that disturbs the status quo, they may also find themselves the targets of expressions of concern, censure, and no confidence from faculty members who may be averse to a new order of things or to the manner of bringing it about. Since presidents or other chief executives are…

  11. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  12. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... our e-newsletter! Aging & Health A to Z Balance Problems Basic Facts & Information What are Balance Problems? Having good balance means being able to ... Only then can you “keep your balance.” Why Balance is Important Your feelings of dizziness may last ...

  13. Falls and confidence related quality of life outcome measures in an older British cohort

    PubMed Central

    Parry, S; Steen, N; Galloway, S; Kenny, R; Bond, J

    2001-01-01

    Falls are common in older subjects and result in loss of confidence and independence. The Falls Efficacy Scale (FES) and the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) were developed in North America to quantify these entities, but contain idiom unfamiliar to an older British population. Neither has been validated in the UK. The FES and the ABC were modified for use within British culture and the internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the modified scales (FES-UK and ABC-UK) assessed. A total of 193 consecutive, ambulant, new, and return patients (n=119; 62%) and their friends and relatives ("visitors", n=74; 38%) were tested on both scales, while the last 60 subjects were retested within one week. Internal reliability was excellent for both scales (Cronbach's alpha 0.97 (FES-UK), and 0.98 (ABC-UK)). Test-retest reliability was good for both scales, though superior for the ABC-UK (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.58 (FES-UK), 0.89 (ABC-UK)). There was evidence to suggest that the ABC-UK was better than the FES-UK at distinguishing between older patients and younger patients (|tABC| = 4.4; |tFES| = 2.3); and between fallers and non-fallers (|tABC| = 8.7; |tFES| = 5.0) where the t statistics are based on the comparison of two independent samples. The ABC-UK and FES-UK are both reliable and valid measures for the assessment of falls and balance related confidence in older adults. However, better test-retest reliability and more robust differentiation of subgroups in whom falls related quality of life would be expected to be different make the ABC-UK the current instrument of choice in assessing this entity in older British subjects.


Keywords: quality of life; falls; elderly; health status measurement PMID:11161077

  14. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... it could be a sign of a balance problem. Balance problems can make you feel unsteady or as if ... related injuries, such as hip fracture. Some balance problems are due to problems in the inner ear. ...

  15. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... often, it could be a sign of a balance problem. Balance problems can make you feel unsteady or as ... fall-related injuries, such as hip fracture. Some balance problems are due to problems in the inner ...

  16. Domains and correlates of clinical balance impairment associated with Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Jesse V; Boyd, James T; Hogarth, Penelope; Horak, Fay B

    2015-03-01

    This study sought to (a) determine the domains of clinical balance impairments associated with Huntington's disease (HD), and (b) evaluate associations between balance test scores and other disease-related impairments. Eighteen subjects with genetically definite HD and 17 age-matched control subjects were evaluated on the Mini-BESTest for their clinical balance impairments as well as the Unified HD Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor and total functional capacity scales, Activity-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale-short form, Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Results showed that subjects with HD exhibited significantly lower total Mini-BESTest scores than subjects without HD (mean (95% CI)=76 (64-87)% with HD, 98 (96-99)% without HD; p=0.0011). Mini-BESTest item scores were significantly lower for subjects with HD on one-leg stance, postural responses, standing with eyes closed on foam, and dual-task timed up-and-go. Mini-BESTest scores significantly correlated with UHDRS motor (r(2)=0.68; p=0.00003) and total functional capacity (r(2)=0.75; p=0.000006) scores as well as with scores on the ABC short form (r(2)=0.45; p=0.0024), SDMT (r(2)=0.42; p=0.0036), and MoCA (r(2)=0.23; p=0.046) assessments. This study, therefore, demonstrates that balance impairments associated with HD span domains of anticipatory postural adjustments, postural responses, stance in challenging sensory conditions, and gait. Although preliminary, clinical balance impairment appears to be an efficient proxy evaluation of multiple HD-related factors due to associations with functional capacity, other motor impairments, balance confidence, and cognitive abilities. PMID:25797790

  17. Addressing the vaccine confidence gap.

    PubMed

    Larson, Heidi J; Cooper, Louis Z; Eskola, Juhani; Katz, Samuel L; Ratzan, Scott

    2011-08-01

    Vaccines--often lauded as one of the greatest public health interventions--are losing public confidence. Some vaccine experts have referred to this decline in confidence as a crisis. We discuss some of the characteristics of the changing global environment that are contributing to increased public questioning of vaccines, and outline some of the specific determinants of public trust. Public decision making related to vaccine acceptance is neither driven by scientific nor economic evidence alone, but is also driven by a mix of psychological, sociocultural, and political factors, all of which need to be understood and taken into account by policy and other decision makers. Public trust in vaccines is highly variable and building trust depends on understanding perceptions of vaccines and vaccine risks, historical experiences, religious or political affiliations, and socioeconomic status. Although provision of accurate, scientifically based evidence on the risk-benefit ratios of vaccines is crucial, it is not enough to redress the gap between current levels of public confidence in vaccines and levels of trust needed to ensure adequate and sustained vaccine coverage. We call for more research not just on individual determinants of public trust, but on what mix of factors are most likely to sustain public trust. The vaccine community demands rigorous evidence on vaccine efficacy and safety and technical and operational feasibility when introducing a new vaccine, but has been negligent in demanding equally rigorous research to understand the psychological, social, and political factors that affect public trust in vaccines. PMID:21664679

  18. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  19. Cultural Influences on Confidence: Country and Gender.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundeberg, Mary A.; Fox, Paul W.; Brown, Amy C.; Elbedour, Salman

    2000-01-01

    Investigates gender differences in confidence judgments when they were correct and incorrect on exam items with postsecondary students (N=551) in five countries. Large and significant differences were found in overall confidence, confidence when correct, and confidence when wrong, associated primarily with country and culture. In contrast, gender…

  20. Gait and balance performance of stroke survivors in South-Western Nigeria - A cross-sectional study

    PubMed Central

    Obembe, Adebimpe Olayinka; Olaogun, Matthew Olatokunbo; Adedoyin, Rufus

    2014-01-01

    Introduction Stroke survivors are often left with neurological and functional deficits, which impair their ability to walk and affect their balance. This study assessed gait parameters and balance performance among stroke survivors and examined the relationship between these two factors. Methods Seventy stroke survivors (65.7% males) who were 6 months or more post stroke participated in this study. Using Observational Gait Analysis, the gait of participants was assessed by gait speed and cadence. Balance performance was assessed using the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale for balance self-efficacy and Functional Reach Test for standing balance. Resuls Participants had a mean age of 53.5±10.4 years. Forty five (64.3%) stroke survivors had haemorrhagic stroke while 25 (35.7%) had ischaemic stroke. The mean gait speed and cadence were 0.6±0.3m/s and 69.1±38.1 steps/min, respectively. The mean balance self-efficacy score was 66.5±17.7 and mean functional reach distance was 18.7±2.6cm. There were significant relationships between gait speed and balance self-efficacy (r =0.461, p =0.001) and between cadence and functional reach distance (r =0.247, p =0.020). Conclusion This study concluded that stroke survivors with higher cadences had higher functional reach distances, and those with higher gait speeds had better balance self-efficacy. Gait speed and cadence are factors related to balance performance. These factors should be considered during gait and balance retraining and should go pariparsu in the rehabilitation of stroke survivors. PMID:24624242

  1. History of falls, gait, balance, and fall risks in older cancer survivors living in the community.

    PubMed

    Huang, Min H; Shilling, Tracy; Miller, Kara A; Smith, Kristin; LaVictoire, Kayle

    2015-01-01

    Older cancer survivors may be predisposed to falls because cancer-related sequelae affect virtually all body systems. The use of a history of falls, gait speed, and balance tests to assess fall risks remains to be investigated in this population. This study examined the relationship of previous falls, gait, and balance with falls in community-dwelling older cancer survivors. At the baseline, demographics, health information, and the history of falls in the past year were obtained through interviewing. Participants performed tests including gait speed, Balance Evaluation Systems Test, and short-version of Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale. Falls were tracked by mailing of monthly reports for 6 months. A "faller" was a person with ≥1 fall during follow-up. Univariate analyses, including independent sample t-tests and Fisher's exact tests, compared baseline demographics, gait speed, and balance between fallers and non-fallers. For univariate analyses, Bonferroni correction was applied for multiple comparisons. Baseline variables with P<0.15 were included in a forward logistic regression model to identify factors predictive of falls with age as covariate. Sensitivity and specificity of each predictor of falls in the model were calculated. Significance level for the regression analysis was P<0.05. During follow-up, 59% of participants had one or more falls. Baseline demographics, health information, history of falls, gaits speed, and balance tests did not differ significantly between fallers and non-fallers. Forward logistic regression revealed that a history of falls was a significant predictor of falls in the final model (odds ratio =6.81; 95% confidence interval =1.594-29.074) (P<0.05). Sensitivity and specificity for correctly identifying a faller using the positive history of falls were 74% and 69%, respectively. Current findings suggested that for community-dwelling older cancer survivors with mixed diagnoses, asking about the history of falls may

  2. The integrated model of sport confidence: a canonical correlation and mediational analysis.

    PubMed

    Koehn, Stefan; Pearce, Alan J; Morris, Tony

    2013-12-01

    The main purpose of the study was to examine crucial parts of Vealey's (2001) integrated framework hypothesizing that sport confidence is a mediating variable between sources of sport confidence (including achievement, self-regulation, and social climate) and athletes' affect in competition. The sample consisted of 386 athletes, who completed the Sources of Sport Confidence Questionnaire, Trait Sport Confidence Inventory, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Canonical correlation analysis revealed a confidence-achievement dimension underlying flow. Bias-corrected bootstrap confidence intervals in AMOS 20.0 were used in examining mediation effects between source domains and dispositional flow. Results showed that sport confidence partially mediated the relationship between achievement and self-regulation domains and flow, whereas no significant mediation was found for social climate. On a subscale level, full mediation models emerged for achievement and flow dimensions of challenge-skills balance, clear goals, and concentration on the task at hand. PMID:24334324

  3. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-01-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  4. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G.; Luginbuhl, D.R.

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  5. Effects of Ving Tsun Chinese martial art training on musculoskeletal health, balance performance, and self-efficacy in community-dwelling older adults

    PubMed Central

    Lip, Ryan W.T.; Fong, Shirley S.M.; Ng, Shamay S.M.; Liu, Karen P.Y.; Guo, X.

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Ving Tsun (VT) Chinese martial art training on radial bone strength, upper- and lower-limb muscular strength, shoulder joint mobility, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly participants. [Subjects and Methods] Twelve seniors voluntarily joined the VT training group, and twenty-seven seniors voluntarily joined the control group. The VT group received VT training for three months, while the control group received no training. The bone strength of the distal radius was assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer. Muscular strength in the limbs was evaluated using a Jamar handgrip dynamometer and the five times sit-to-stand test. Shoulder joint mobility was examined using a goniometer. Balance performance and self-efficacy were evaluated using the Berg Balance Scale and the Chinese version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, respectively. [Results] The results revealed a nonsignificant group-by-time interaction effect, group effect, and time effect for all outcome variables. However, general trends of maintenance or improvement in all outcome parameters were observed to a greater extent in the VT group than in the control group. [Conclusion] VT training might be a potential fall-prevention exercise that can be used to maintain general physique, balance, and confidence in the elderly population. A further randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm this postulation. PMID:25931704

  6. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    PubMed

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations. PMID:27391683

  7. Item-Specific Gender Differences in Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foote, Chandra J.

    Very little research has been performed which examines gender differences in confidence in highly specified situations. More generalized studies consistently suggest that women are less confident than men (i.e. Sadker and Sadker, 1994). The few studies of gender differences in item-specific conditions indicate that men tend to be more confident in…

  8. Confidence in Science: The Gender Gap.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fox, Mary Frank; Firebaugh, Glenn

    1992-01-01

    Analyses relationship between gender and confidence in science. Argues that, as women form larger part of labor force and tax base, scientific fields must seek to increase women's generally lower levels of confidence in science. Reports no change in trend of confidence in science between 1973 and 1989, but shows significant and widening gap…

  9. Dynamics of postdecisional processing of confidence.

    PubMed

    Yu, Shuli; Pleskac, Timothy J; Zeigenfuse, Matthew D

    2015-04-01

    Most cognitive theories assume that confidence and choice happen simultaneously and are based on the same information. The 3 studies presented in this article instead show that confidence judgments can arise, at least in part, from a postdecisional evidence accumulation process. As a result of this process, increasing the time between making a choice and confidence judgment improves confidence resolution. This finding contradicts the notion that confidence judgments are biased by decision makers seeking confirmatory evidence. Further analysis reveals that the improved resolution is due to a reduction in confidence in incorrect responses, while confidence in correct responses remains relatively constant. These results are modeled with a sequential sampling process that allows evidence accumulation to continue after a choice is made and maps the amount of accumulated evidence onto a confidence rating. The cognitive modeling analysis reveals that the rate of evidence accumulation following a choice does slow relative to the rate preceding choice. The analysis also shows that the asymmetry between confidence in correct and incorrect choices is compatible with state-dependent decay in the accumulated evidence: Evidence consistent with the current state results in a deceleration of accumulated evidence and consequently evidence appears to have a decreasing impact on observed confidence. In contrast, evidence inconsistent with the current state results in an acceleration of accumulated evidence toward the opposite direction and consequently evidence appears to have an increasing impact on confidence. Taken together, this process-level understanding of confidence suggests a simple strategy for improving confidence accuracy: take a bit more time to make confidence judgments. PMID:25844627

  10. Confidence Intervals in Qtl Mapping by Bootstrapping

    PubMed Central

    Visscher, P. M.; Thompson, R.; Haley, C. S.

    1996-01-01

    The determination of empirical confidence intervals for the location of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) was investigated using simulation. Empirical confidence intervals were calculated using a bootstrap resampling method for a backcross population derived from inbred lines. Sample sizes were either 200 or 500 individuals, and the QTL explained 1, 5, or 10% of the phenotypic variance. The method worked well in that the proportion of empirical confidence intervals that contained the simulated QTL was close to expectation. In general, the confidence intervals were slightly conservatively biased. Correlations between the test statistic and the width of the confidence interval were strongly negative, so that the stronger the evidence for a QTL segregating, the smaller the empirical confidence interval for its location. The size of the average confidence interval depended heavily on the population size and the effect of the QTL. Marker spacing had only a small effect on the average empirical confidence interval. The LOD drop-off method to calculate empirical support intervals gave confidence intervals that generally were too small, in particular if confidence intervals were calculated only for samples above a certain significance threshold. The bootstrap method is easy to implement and is useful in the analysis of experimental data. PMID:8725246

  11. Balancing Acts

    MedlinePlus

    ... a new type of balance therapy using computerized, virtual reality. UPMC associate professor Susan Whitney, Ph.D., developed ... a virtual grocery store in the university's Medical Virtual Reality Center. Patients walk on a treadmill and safely ...

  12. Balancing Acts

    MedlinePlus

    ... Current Issue Past Issues Special Section: Focus on Communication Balancing Acts Past Issues / Fall 2008 Table of ... from the National Institute on Deafness and Other Communication Disorders (NIDCD). It involves simulated trips down the ...

  13. Postural and Balance Disorders in Patients with Parkinson's Disease: A Prospective Open-Label Feasibility Study with Two Months of Action Observation Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Santamato, Andrea; Ranieri, Maurizio; Cinone, Nicoletta; Stuppiello, Lucia Anna; Valeno, Giovanni; De Sanctis, Jula Laura; Fortunato, Francesca; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Greco, Antonio; Seripa, Davide; Panza, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    Action observation treatment has been proposed as therapeutic option in rehabilitation of patients affected by Parkinson's disease (PD) to improve freezing of gait episodes. The purpose of this prospective open-label feasibility study was to evaluate the impact of 8-week action observation training (video-therapy) for the treatment of postural instability and balance impairment in PD patients. Fifteen PD patients aged under 80 years with scores of 1 to 3 on the Hoehn and Yahr staging and without evidence of freezing of gait were recruited. They underwent 24 sessions of video-therapy training based on carefully watching video clips on motor tasks linked to balance, subsequently performing the same observed movements. No statistically significant differences were observed in the identified outcome measures with the Berg Balance Scale and the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale after two months of follow-up. In the present study, a short course of action observation treatment seems to be not effective in reducing balance impairments and postural instability in patients affected by mild to moderate PD. Further studies with larger samples, longer follow-up period, and standardized protocols of action observation treatment are needed to investigate the effects of this rehabilitation technique in the management of postural and balance disorders of PD patients. PMID:26798551

  14. Active specific immunotherapy using the immune reaction of a low-dose irradiated tumor tissue. [Mice

    SciTech Connect

    Ogawa, Y.; Imanaka, K.; Ashida, C.; Takashima, H.; Imajo, Y.; Kimura, S.

    1983-04-01

    Active specific immunotherapy using the immune reaction of a low-dose irradiated tumor tissue was studied on the transplanted MM46 tumor of female C3H/He mice after radiotherapy. MM46 tumor cells were inoculated into the right hind paws of mice. On the 5th day, irradiation with the dose irradiated tumor tissue (2000 rad on the fifth day), were injected into the left hind paws of the tumor-bearing mice. Effectiveness of this active specific immunotherapy against tumor was evaluated by the regression of tumor and survival rate of mice. Tumor was markedly regressed and survival rate was significantly increased by the active specific immunitherapy.

  15. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  16. Gender, Family Structure, and Adolescents' Primary Confidants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nomaguchi, Kei M.

    2008-01-01

    Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 4,190), this study examined adolescents' reports of primary confidants. Results showed that nearly 30% of adolescents aged 16-18 nominated mothers as primary confidants, 25% nominated romantic partners, and 20% nominated friends. Nominating romantic partners or friends was related…

  17. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  18. Self-Confidence and Metacognitive Processes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kleitman, Sabina; Stankov, Lazar

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of the Self-confidence factor. In particular, we study the relationship between this factor and cognitive, metacognitive, and personality measures. Participants (N=296) were administered a battery of seven cognitive tests that assess three constructs: accuracy, speed, and confidence. Participants were also given the…

  19. Developing confidence decreases guessing and increases competency.

    PubMed

    Center, Deborah L; Adams, Timothy M

    2013-09-01

    Validating competency to meet accreditation and safety demands is a major challenge many organizations face. Traditional testing methods may only reflect guessing and may not capture the amount of misinformation nurses are using for critical decision making. Using a confidence-based learning methodology allows learners to correct misinformation and gain confidence and competency. PMID:24015795

  20. Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.

    2006-01-01

    We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…

  1. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  2. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  3. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  4. The Role of Confidence in Lifelong Learning.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Norman, Marie; Hyland, Terry

    2003-01-01

    Focuses on the concept of confidence stating that it is commonly misunderstood. Presents suggestions for managing and supporting learning after exploring research related to confidence. Offers information on original research on student teachers learning to teach in the post-school sector. (CMK)

  5. An informative confidence metric for ATR.

    SciTech Connect

    Bow, Wallace Johnston Jr.; Richards, John Alfred; Bray, Brian Kenworthy

    2003-03-01

    Automatic or assisted target recognition (ATR) is an important application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Most ATR researchers have focused on the core problem of declaration-that is, detection and identification of targets of interest within a SAR image. For ATR declarations to be of maximum value to an image analyst, however, it is essential that each declaration be accompanied by a reliability estimate or confidence metric. Unfortunately, the need for a clear and informative confidence metric for ATR has generally been overlooked or ignored. We propose a framework and methodology for evaluating the confidence in an ATR system's declarations and competing target hypotheses. Our proposed confidence metric is intuitive, informative, and applicable to a broad class of ATRs. We demonstrate that seemingly similar ATRs may differ fundamentally in the ability-or inability-to identify targets with high confidence.

  6. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Qtl Location

    PubMed Central

    Mangin, B.; Goffinet, B.; Rebai, A.

    1994-01-01

    We describe a method for constructing the confidence interval of the QTL location parameter. This method is developed in the local asymptotic framework, leading to a linear model at each position of the putative QTL. The idea is to construct a likelihood ratio test, using statistics whose asymptotic distribution does not depend on the nuisance parameters and in particular on the effect of the QTL. We show theoretical properties of the confidence interval built with this test, and compare it with the classical confidence interval using simulations. We show in particular, that our confidence interval has the correct probability of containing the true map location of the QTL, for almost all QTLs, whereas the classical confidence interval can be very biased for QTLs having small effect. PMID:7896108

  7. Inference by Eye: Pictures of Confidence Intervals and Thinking about Levels of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cumming, Geoff

    2007-01-01

    A picture of a 95% confidence interval (CI) implicitly contains pictures of CIs of all other levels of confidence, and information about the "p"-value for testing a null hypothesis. This article discusses pictures, taken from interactive software, that suggest several ways to think about the level of confidence of a CI, "p"-values, and what…

  8. Balance System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    TherEx Inc.'s AT-1 Computerized Ataxiameter precisely evaluates posture and balance disturbances that commonly accompany neurological and musculoskeletal disorders. Complete system includes two-strain gauged footplates, signal conditioning circuitry, a computer monitor, printer and a stand-alone tiltable balance platform. AT-1 serves as assessment tool, treatment monitor, and rehabilitation training device. It allows clinician to document quantitatively the outcome of treatment and analyze data over time to develop outcome standards for several classifications of patients. It can evaluate specifically the effects of surgery, drug treatment, physical therapy or prosthetic devices.

  9. Balancing Eggs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Allan

    2014-01-01

    Theory predicts that an egg-shaped body should rest in stable equilibrium when on its side, balance vertically in metastable equilibrium on its broad end and be completely unstable on its narrow end. A homogeneous solid egg made from wood, clay or plastic behaves in this way, but a real egg will not stand on either end. It is shown that this…

  10. Self-Confidence of Selected Indian Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Martin, James C.

    1974-01-01

    The article discusses a study that determined if selected primary and junior high Indian students' self-confidence was related to grade level and to the number of years enrolled in a particular Bureau of Indian Affairs boarding school. (KM)

  11. Weighting Mean and Variability during Confidence Judgments

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Mamassian, Pascal

    2015-01-01

    Humans can not only perform some visual tasks with great precision, they can also judge how good they are in these tasks. However, it remains unclear how observers produce such metacognitive evaluations, and how these evaluations might be dissociated from the performance in the visual task. Here, we hypothesized that some stimulus variables could affect confidence judgments above and beyond their impact on performance. In a motion categorization task on moving dots, we manipulated the mean and the variance of the motion directions, to obtain a low-mean low-variance condition and a high-mean high-variance condition with matched performances. Critically, in terms of confidence, observers were not indifferent between these two conditions. Observers exhibited marked preferences, which were heterogeneous across individuals, but stable within each observer when assessed one week later. Thus, confidence and performance are dissociable and observers’ confidence judgments put different weights on the stimulus variables that limit performance. PMID:25793275

  12. Effect of Tai Chi Exercise Combined with Mental Imagery Theory in Improving Balance in a Diabetic and Elderly Population

    PubMed Central

    Alsubiheen, Abdulrahman; Petrofsky, Jerrold; Daher, Noha; Lohman, Everett; Balbas, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Background One of the effects of diabetes mellitus (DM), peripheral neuropathy, affects the sensation in the feet and can increase the chance of falling. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of 8 weeks of Tai Chi (TC) training combined with mental imagery (MI) on improving balance in people with diabetes and an age matched control group. Material/Methods Seventeen healthy subjects and 12 diabetic sedentary subjects ranging from 40–80 years of age were recruited. All subjects in both groups attended a Yang style of TC class using MI strategies, 2 sessions a week for 8 weeks. Each session was one hour long. Measures were taken using a balance platform test, an Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale, a one leg standing test (OLS), functional reach test (FRT) and hemoglobin A1C. These measures were taken twice, pre and post-study, for both groups. Results Both groups experienced significant improvements in ABC, OLS, FRT (P<0.01) after completing 8 weeks of TC exercise with no significant improvement between groups. Subjects using the balance platform test demonstrated improvement in balance in all different tasks with no significant change between groups. There was no significant change in HbA1C for the diabetic group. Conclusions All results showed an improvement in balance in the diabetic and the control groups; however, no significant difference between the groups was observed. Since the DM group had more problems with balance impairment at baseline than the control, the diabetic group showed the most benefit from the TC exercise. PMID:26454826

  13. Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.

    1991-01-01

    Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

  14. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  15. Robot-assisted vs. sensory integration training in treating gait and balance dysfunctions in patients with multiple sclerosis: a randomized controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Gandolfi, Marialuisa; Geroin, Christian; Picelli, Alessandro; Munari, Daniele; Waldner, Andreas; Tamburin, Stefano; Marchioretto, Fabio; Smania, Nicola

    2014-01-01

    Background: Extensive research on both healthy subjects and patients with central nervous damage has elucidated a crucial role of postural adjustment reactions and central sensory integration processes in generating and “shaping” locomotor function, respectively. Whether robotic-assisted gait devices might improve these functions in Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients is not fully investigated in literature. Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of end-effector robot-assisted gait training (RAGT) and sensory integration balance training (SIBT) in improving walking and balance performance in patients with MS. Methods: Twenty-two patients with MS (EDSS: 1.5–6.5) were randomly assigned to two groups. The RAGT group (n = 12) underwent end-effector system training. The SIBT group (n = 10) underwent specific balance exercises. Each patient received twelve 50-min treatment sessions (2 days/week). A blinded rater evaluated patients before and after treatment as well as 1 month post treatment. Primary outcomes were walking speed and Berg Balance Scale. Secondary outcomes were the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, Sensory Organization Balance Test, Stabilometric Assessment, Fatigue Severity Scale, cadence, step length, single and double support time, Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54. Results: Between groups comparisons showed no significant differences on primary and secondary outcome measures over time. Within group comparisons showed significant improvements in both groups on the Berg Balance Scale (P = 0.001). Changes approaching significance were found on gait speed (P = 0.07) only in the RAGT group. Significant changes in balance task-related domains during standing and walking conditions were found in the SIBT group. Conclusion: Balance disorders in patients with MS may be ameliorated by RAGT and by SIBT. PMID:24904361

  16. Sample Size for Confidence Interval of Covariate-Adjusted Mean Difference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2010-01-01

    This article provides a way to determine adequate sample size for the confidence interval of covariate-adjusted mean difference in randomized experiments. The standard error of adjusted mean difference depends on covariate variance and balance, which are two unknown quantities at the stage of planning sample size. If covariate observations are…

  17. Balance (or Vestibular) Rehabilitation

    MedlinePlus

    ... for the Public / Hearing and Balance Balance (or Vestibular) Rehabilitation Audiologic (hearing), balance, and medical diagnostic tests help indicate whether you are a candidate for vestibular (balance) rehabilitation. Vestibular rehabilitation is an individualized balance ...

  18. Balanced Can

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shakerin, Said

    2013-12-01

    The ordinary 12-oz beverage cans in the figures below are not held up with any props or glue. The bottom of such cans is stepped at its circumference for better stacking. When this kind of can is tilted, as shown in Fig. 1, the outside corners of the step touch the surface beneath, providing an effective contact about 1 cm wide. Because the contact is relatively wide and the geometry is symmetrical, it is easy to balance an empty can by simply adding an appropriate amount of water so that the overall center of mass is located directly above the contact. In fact, any amount of water between about 40 and 210 mL will work. A computational animation of this trick by Sijia Liang and Bruce Atwood that shows center of mass as a function of amount of added water is available at http://demonstrations.wolfram.com. Once there, search "balancing can."

  19. Airplane Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huguet, L

    1921-01-01

    The authors argue that the center of gravity has a preponderating influence on the longitudinal stability of an airplane in flight, but that manufacturers, although aware of this influence, are still content to apply empirical rules to the balancing of their airplanes instead of conducting wind tunnel tests. The author examines the following points: 1) longitudinal stability, in flight, of a glider with coinciding centers; 2) the influence exercised on the stability of flight by the position of the axis of thrust with respect to the center of gravity and the whole of the glider; 3) the stability on the ground before taking off, and the influence of the position of the landing gear. 4) the influence of the elements of the glider on the balance, the possibility of sometimes correcting defective balance, and the valuable information given on this point by wind tunnel tests; 5) and a brief examination of the equilibrium of power in horizontal flight, where the conditions of stability peculiar to this kind of flight are added to previously existing conditions of the stability of the glider, and interfere in fixing the safety limits of certain evolutions.

  20. Confidence in biopreparedness authorities among Finnish conscripts.

    PubMed

    Vartti, Anne-Marie; Aro, Arja R; Jormanainen, Vesa; Henriksson, Markus; Nikkari, Simo

    2010-08-01

    A large sample of Finnish military conscripts of the armored brigade were questioned on the extent to which they trusted the information given biopreparedness authorities (such as the police, military, health care, and public health institutions) and how confident they were in the authority's ability to protect the public during a potential infectious disease outbreak, from either natural or deliberate causes. Participants answered a written questionnaire during their initial health inspection in July 2007. From a total of 1,000 conscripts, 953 male conscripts returned the questionnaire. The mean sum scores for confidence in the information given to biopreparedness authorities and the media on natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range = 0-30) were 20.14 (SD = 7.79) and 20.12 (SD = 7.69), respectively. Mean sum scores for the respondents' confidence in the ability of the biopreparedness authorities to protect the public during natural and bioterrorism-related outbreaks (range 0-25) were 16.04 (SD = 5.78) and 16.17 (SD = 5.89). Most respondents indicated that during a natural outbreak, they would have confidence in information provided by a health care institution such as central hospitals and primary health care centers, whereas in the case of bioterrorism, the respondents indicated that they would have confidence in the defense forces and central hospitals. PMID:20731266

  1. Chiropractic Interns' Perceptions of Stress and Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Spegman, Adele Mattinat; Herrin, Sean

    2007-01-01

    Objective: Psychological stress has been shown to influence learning and performance among medical and graduate students. Few studies have examined psychological stress in chiropractic students and interns. This preliminary study explored interns' perceptions around stress and confidence at the midpoint of professional training. Methods: This pilot study used a mixed-methods approach, combining rating scales and modified qualitative methods, to explore interns' lived experience. Eighty-eight interns provided ratings of stress and confidence and narrative responses to broad questions. Results: Participants reported multiple sources of stress; stress and confidence ratings were inversely related. Interns described stress as forced priorities, inadequate time, and perceptions of weak performance. Two themes, “convey respect” and “guide real-world learning,” describe faculty actions that minimized stress and promoted confidence. Conclusion: Chiropractic interns experience varying degrees of stress, which is managed with diverse strategies. The development of confidence appears to be influenced by the consistency and manner in which feedback is provided. Although faculty cannot control the amount or sources of stress, awareness of interns' perceptions can strengthen our effectiveness as educators. PMID:18483584

  2. Adaptive Confidence Bands for Nonparametric Regression Functions

    PubMed Central

    Cai, T. Tony; Low, Mark; Ma, Zongming

    2014-01-01

    A new formulation for the construction of adaptive confidence bands in non-parametric function estimation problems is proposed. Confidence bands are constructed which have size that adapts to the smoothness of the function while guaranteeing that both the relative excess mass of the function lying outside the band and the measure of the set of points where the function lies outside the band are small. It is shown that the bands adapt over a maximum range of Lipschitz classes. The adaptive confidence band can be easily implemented in standard statistical software with wavelet support. Numerical performance of the procedure is investigated using both simulated and real datasets. The numerical results agree well with the theoretical analysis. The procedure can be easily modified and used for other nonparametric function estimation models. PMID:26269661

  3. Cascaded classifiers for confidence-based chemical named entity recognition

    PubMed Central

    Corbett, Peter; Copestake, Ann

    2008-01-01

    Background Chemical named entities represent an important facet of biomedical text. Results We have developed a system to use character-based n-grams, Maximum Entropy Markov Models and rescoring to recognise chemical names and other such entities, and to make confidence estimates for the extracted entities. An adjustable threshold allows the system to be tuned to high precision or high recall. At a threshold set for balanced precision and recall, we were able to extract named entities at an F score of 80.7% from chemistry papers and 83.2% from PubMed abstracts. Furthermore, we were able to achieve 57.6% and 60.3% recall at 95% precision, and 58.9% and 49.1% precision at 90% recall. Conclusion These results show that chemical named entities can be extracted with good performance, and that the properties of the extraction can be tuned to suit the demands of the task. PMID:19025690

  4. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  5. The Confidence Factor in Liberal Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Daniel

    2012-01-01

    With the US unemployment rate at 9 percent, it's rational for college students to lose confidence in the liberal arts and to opt for a vocational major. Or is it? There is a compelling economic case for the liberal arts. Against those who call for more professional training, liberal educators should concede nothing. However, they do have a…

  6. Mixed Confidence Estimation for Iterative CT Reconstruction.

    PubMed

    Perlmutter, David S; Kim, Soo Mee; Kinahan, Paul E; Alessio, Adam M

    2016-09-01

    Dynamic (4D) CT imaging is used in a variety of applications, but the two major drawbacks of the technique are its increased radiation dose and longer reconstruction time. Here we present a statistical analysis of our previously proposed Mixed Confidence Estimation (MCE) method that addresses both these issues. This method, where framed iterative reconstruction is only performed on the dynamic regions of each frame while static regions are fixed across frames to a composite image, was proposed to reduce computation time. In this work, we generalize the previous method to describe any application where a portion of the image is known with higher confidence (static, composite, lower-frequency content, etc.) and a portion of the image is known with lower confidence (dynamic, targeted, etc). We show that by splitting the image space into higher and lower confidence components, MCE can lower the estimator variance in both regions compared to conventional reconstruction. We present a theoretical argument for this reduction in estimator variance and verify this argument with proof-of-principle simulations. We also propose a fast approximation of the variance of images reconstructed with MCE and confirm that this approximation is accurate compared to analytic calculations of and multi-realization image variance. This MCE method requires less computation time and provides reduced image variance for imaging scenarios where portions of the image are known with more certainty than others allowing for potentially reduced radiation dose and/or improved dynamic imaging. PMID:27008663

  7. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45°) represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned) input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays. PMID:26495433

  8. Sources of Confidence in School Community Councils

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nygaard, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Three Utah middle level school community councils participated in a qualitative strengths-based process evaluation. Two of the school community councils were identified as exemplary, and the third was just beginning to function. One aspect of the evaluation was the source of school community council members' confidence. Each school had unique…

  9. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  10. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  11. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  12. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  13. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  14. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  15. Highly Confident but Wrong: Gender Differences and Similarities in Confidence Judgments.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lundeberg, Mary A.; And Others

    1994-01-01

    Gender differences in item-specific confidence judgments were studied for 70 male and 181 female college students. Gender differences in confidence were dependent on context and the domain being tested. Both men and women were overconfident, but men were especially overconfident when incorrect. (SLD)

  16. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-03-27

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  17. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-02-13

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  18. Random selection as a confidence building tool

    SciTech Connect

    Macarthur, Duncan W; Hauck, Danielle; Langner, Diana; Thron, Jonathan; Smith, Morag; Williams, Richard

    2010-01-01

    Any verification measurement performed on potentially classified nuclear material must satisfy two seemingly contradictory constraints. First and foremost, no classified information can be released. At the same time, the monitoring party must have confidence in the veracity of the measurement. The first concern can be addressed by performing the measurements within the host facility using instruments under the host's control. Because the data output in this measurement scenario is also under host control, it is difficult for the monitoring party to have confidence in that data. One technique for addressing this difficulty is random selection. The concept of random selection can be thought of as four steps: (1) The host presents several 'identical' copies of a component or system to the monitor. (2) One (or more) of these copies is randomly chosen by the monitors for use in the measurement system. (3) Similarly, one or more is randomly chosen to be validated further at a later date in a monitor-controlled facility. (4) Because the two components or systems are identical, validation of the 'validation copy' is equivalent to validation of the measurement system. This procedure sounds straightforward, but effective application may be quite difficult. Although random selection is often viewed as a panacea for confidence building, the amount of confidence generated depends on the monitor's continuity of knowledge for both validation and measurement systems. In this presentation, we will discuss the random selection technique, as well as where and how this technique might be applied to generate maximum confidence. In addition, we will discuss the role of modular measurement-system design in facilitating random selection and describe a simple modular measurement system incorporating six small {sup 3}He neutron detectors and a single high-purity germanium gamma detector.

  19. Balancing Certainty and Uncertainty in Clinical Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamhi, Alan G.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: In this article, I question how practitioners can balance the certainty and confidence that they can help their patients with the uncertainty that makes them continually question their beliefs and assumptions. Method: I compare the mechanisms of science and models of clinical practice that may help practitioners achieve the right balance…

  20. Shaft balancing

    DOEpatents

    Irwin, John A.

    1979-01-01

    A gas turbine engine has an internal drive shaft including one end connected to a driven load and an opposite end connected to a turbine wheel and wherein the shaft has an in situ adjustable balance system near the critical center of a bearing span for the shaft including two 360.degree. rings piloted on the outer diameter of the shaft at a point accessible through an internal engine panel; each of the rings has a small amount of material removed from its periphery whereby both of the rings are precisely unbalanced an equivalent amount; the rings are locked circumferentially together by radial serrations thereon; numbered tangs on the outside diameter of each ring identify the circumferential location of unbalance once the rings are locked together; an aft ring of the pair of rings has a spline on its inside diameter that mates with a like spline on the shaft to lock the entire assembly together.

  1. Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1987-01-01

    An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

  2. On the Confidence Limit of Hilbert Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Norden

    2003-01-01

    Confidence limit is a routine requirement for Fourier spectral analysis. But this confidence limit is established based on ergodic theory: For stationary process, temporal average equals the ensemble average. Therefore, one can divide the data into n-sections and treat each section as independent realization. Most natural processes in general, and climate data in particular, are not stationary; therefore, there is a need for the Hilbert Spectral analysis for such processes. Here ergodic theory is no longer applicable. We propose to use various adjustable parameters in the shifting processes of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to obtain an ensemble of Intrinsic Mode Function 0 sets. Based on such an ensemble, we introduce a statistical measure in. a form of confidence limits for the Intrinsic Mode Functions, and consequently, the Hilbert spectra. The criterion of selecting the various adjustable parameters is based on the orthogonality test of the resulting M F sets. Length-of-day data from 1962 to 2001 will be used to illustrate this new approach. Its implication in climate data analysis will also be discussed.

  3. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  4. AN INITIAL EVALUATION OF THE BTRACKS BALANCE PLATE AND SPORTS BALANCE SOFTWARE FOR CONCUSSION DIAGNOSIS

    PubMed Central

    Manyak, Kristin A.; Abdenour, Thomas E.; Rauh, Mitchell J.; Baweja, Harsimran S.

    2016-01-01

    Background As recently dictated by the American Medical Society, balance testing is an important component in the clinical evaluation of concussion. Despite this, previous research on the efficacy of balance testing for concussion diagnosis suggests low sensitivity (∼30%), based primarily on the popular Balance Error Scoring System (BESS). The Balance Tracking System (BTrackS, Balance Tracking Systems Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) consists of a force plate (BTrackS Balance Plate) and software (BTrackS Sport Balance) which can quickly (<2 min) perform concussion balance testing with gold standard accuracy. Purpose The present study aimed to determine the sensitivity of the BTrackS Balance Plate and Sports Balance Software for concussion diagnosis. Study Design Cross-Sectional Study Methods Preseason baseline balance testing of 519 healthy Division I college athletes playing sports with a relatively high risk for concussions was performed with the BTrackS Balance Test. Testing was administered by certified athletic training staff using the BTrackS Balance Plate and Sport Balance software. Of the baselined athletes, 25 later experienced a concussion during the ensuing sport season. Post-injury balance testing was performed on these concussed athletes within 48 of injury and the sensitivity of the BTrackS Balance Plate and Sport Balance software was estimated based on the number of athletes showing a balance decline according to the criteria specified in the Sport Balance software. This criteria is based on the minimal detectable change statistic with a 90% confidence level (i.e. 90% specificity). Results Of 25 athletes who experienced concussions, 16 had balance declines relative to baseline testing results according to the BTrackS Sport Balance software criteria. This corresponds to an estimated concussion sensitivity of 64%, which is twice as great as that reported previously for the BESS. Conclusions The BTrackS Balance Plate and Sport Balance software has the

  5. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  6. Confidence and conflicts of duty in surgery.

    PubMed

    Coggon, John; Wheeler, Robert

    2010-03-01

    This paper offers an exploration of the right to confidentiality, considering the moral importance of private information. It is shown that the legitimate value that individuals derive from confidentiality stems from the public interest. It is re-assuring, therefore, that public interest arguments must be made to justify breaches of confidentiality. The General Medical Council's guidance gives very high importance to duties to maintain confidences, but also rightly acknowledges that, at times, there are more important duties that must be met. Nevertheless, this potential conflict of obligations may place the surgeon in difficult clinical situations, and examples of these are described, together with suggestions for resolution. PMID:20353640

  7. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  8. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  9. Demonstrating disease freedom-combining confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Cannon, R M

    2002-01-22

    Part of the requirements for demonstrating disease freedom usually will be that sufficient testing be done to give a specified confidence of detecting the disease if it were present at a specified level. Often, this requirement is translated into a fixed testing regime that must be followed (an inflexible approach that might not be the most economic or practical solution).A more flexible approach is to specify the capabilities of the various tests that can be used to detect the disease, and let the party hoping to demonstrate disease freedom decide upon the testing regime. The question then arises as to how to combine information that can come from a variety of sources over a period of time to give an overall level of confidence. Two methods are given. The first, an exact method based on multiplying probabilities, would be more appropriate for a survey of an area in which no disease is thought to be present. The second method (more appropriate for a herd-assurance program within an infected area) is a point-based system that takes into account the different sensitivities of the methods used to detect disease and the change in prevalence over time. It allocates points for each test done proportional to the sensitivity of the test and the prevalence at the time of testing. PMID:11849719

  10. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  11. Case report: a balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit to reduce fall risk in an older adult with bilateral peripheral neuropathy.

    PubMed

    Hakim, Renée Marie; Salvo, Charles J; Balent, Anthony; Keyasko, Michael; McGlynn, Deidre

    2015-02-01

    A recent systematic review supported the use of strength and balance training for older adults at risk for falls, and provided preliminary evidence for those with peripheral neuropathy (PN). However, the role of gaming systems in fall risk reduction was not explored. The purpose of this case report was to describe the use of the Nintendo® Wii™ Fit gaming system to train standing balance in a community-dwelling older adult with PN and a history of recurrent near falls. A 76-year-old patient with bilateral PN participated in 1 h of Nintendo® Wii™ Fit balance training, two times a week for 6 weeks. Examination was conducted using a Computerized Dynamic Posturography system (i.e. Sensory Organization Test (SOT), Limits of Stability (LOS), Adaptation Test (ADT) and Motor Control Test (MCT) and clinical testing with the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), Timed Up and Go (TUG), Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and 30-s Chair Stand. Following training, sensory integration scores on the SOT were unchanged. Maximum excursion abilities improved by a range of 37-86% on the LOS test. MCT scores improved for amplitude with forward translations and ADT scores improved for downward platform rotations. Clinical scores improved on the BBS (28/56-34/56), ABC (57.5-70.6%) and TUG (14.9-10.9 s) which indicated reduced fall risk. Balance training with a gaming system showed promise as a feasible, objective and enjoyable method to improve physical performance and reduce fall risk in an individual with PN. PMID:25515202

  12. Sample sizes for confidence limits for reliability.

    SciTech Connect

    Darby, John L.

    2010-02-01

    We recently performed an evaluation of the implications of a reduced stockpile of nuclear weapons for surveillance to support estimates of reliability. We found that one technique developed at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) under-estimates the required sample size for systems-level testing. For a large population the discrepancy is not important, but for a small population it is important. We found that another technique used by SNL provides the correct required sample size. For systems-level testing of nuclear weapons, samples are selected without replacement, and the hypergeometric probability distribution applies. Both of the SNL techniques focus on samples without defects from sampling without replacement. We generalized the second SNL technique to cases with defects in the sample. We created a computer program in Mathematica to automate the calculation of confidence for reliability. We also evaluated sampling with replacement where the binomial probability distribution applies.

  13. The 2009 Retirement Confidence Survey: economy drives confidence to record lows; many looking to work longer.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2009-04-01

    RECORD LOW CONFIDENCE LEVELS: Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007). THE ECONOMY, INFLATION, COST OF LIVING ARE THE BIG CONCERNS: Not surprisingly, workers overall who have lost confidence over the past year about affording a comfortable retirement most often cite the recent economic uncertainty, inflation, and the cost of living as primary factors. In addition, certain negative experiences, such as job loss or a pay cut, loss of retirement savings, or an increase in debt, almost always contribute to loss of confidence among those who experience them. RETIREMENT EXPECTATIONS DELAYED: Workers apparently expect to work longer because of the economic downturn: 28 percent of workers in the 2009 RCS say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. Of those, the vast majority (89 percent) say that they have postponed retirement with the intention of increasing their financial security. Nevertheless, the median (mid-point) worker expects to retire at age 65, with 21 percent planning to push on into their 70s. The median retiree actually retired at age 62, and 47 percent of retirees say they retired sooner than planned. WORKING IN RETIREMENT: More workers are also planning to supplement their income in retirement by working for pay. The percentage of workers planning to work after they retire has increased to 72 percent in 2009 (up from 66 percent in 2007). This compares with 34 percent of retirees who report they actually worked for pay at some time during their retirement. GREATER WORRY ABOUT BASIC AND HEALTH EXPENSES: Workers who say they very confident in

  14. Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake

    PubMed Central

    Schiöth, Helgi B.; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R.; Benedict, Christian; Elmståhl, Helena; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M.; Hogenkamp, Pleunie S.

    2015-01-01

    Expectations about a food’s satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g), a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g), or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload’s satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = −0.61; p = 0.001). The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03). Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain. PMID:26115087

  15. Are You Sure? Confidence about the Satiating Capacity of a Food Affects Subsequent Food Intake.

    PubMed

    Schiöth, Helgi B; Ferriday, Danielle; Davies, Sarah R; Benedict, Christian; Elmståhl, Helena; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Hogenkamp, Pleunie S

    2015-07-01

    Expectations about a food's satiating capacity predict self-selected portion size, food intake and food choice. However, two individuals might have a similar expectation, but one might be extremely confident while the other might be guessing. It is unclear whether confidence about an expectation affects adjustments in energy intake at a subsequent meal. In a randomized cross-over design, 24 subjects participated in three separate breakfast sessions, and were served a low-energy-dense preload (53 kcal/100 g), a high-energy-dense preload (94 kcal/100 g), or no preload. Subjects received ambiguous information about the preload's satiating capacity and rated how confident they were about their expected satiation before consuming the preload in its entirety. They were served an ad libitum test meal 30 min later. Confidence ratings were negatively associated with energy compensation after consuming the high-energy-dense preload (r = -0.61; p = 0.001). The same relationship was evident after consuming the low-energy-dense preload, but only after controlling for dietary restraint, hunger prior to, and liking of the test meal (p = 0.03). Our results suggest that confidence modifies short-term controls of food intake by affecting energy compensation. These results merit consideration because imprecise caloric compensation has been identified as a potential risk factor for a positive energy balance and weight gain. PMID:26115087

  16. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  17. Mathematical Foundations for a Theory of Confidence Structures

    PubMed Central

    Balch, Michael Scott

    2012-01-01

    This paper introduces a new mathematical object: the confidence structure. A confidence structure represents inferential uncertainty in an unknown parameter by defining a belief function whose output is commensurate with Neyman-Pearson confidence. Confidence structures on a group of input variables can be propagated through a function to obtain a valid confidence structure on the output of that function. The theory of confidence structures is created by enhancing the extant theory of confidence distributions with the mathematical generality of Dempster-Shafer evidence theory. Mathematical proofs grounded in random set theory demonstrate the operative properties of confidence structures. The result is a new theory which achieves the holistic goals of Bayesian inference while maintaining the empirical rigor of frequentist inference. PMID:25190904

  18. A Question of Balance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Claxton, David B.; Troy, Maridy; Dupree, Sarah

    2006-01-01

    Most authorities consider balance to be a component of skill-related physical fitness. Balance, however, is directly related to health, especially for older adults. Falls are a leading cause of injury and death among the elderly. Improved balance can help reduce falls and contribute to older people remaining physically active. Balance is a…

  19. Improve Your Balance

    MedlinePlus

    ... My Go4Life Get Free Stuff Be a Partner Balance Improve Your Balance Each year, more than 2 million older Americans ... types of exercise — endurance , strength , balance, and flexibility . Balance Stand on One Foot Heel-to-Toe Walk ...

  20. Balance in Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Richard

    2007-01-01

    The review by Black and Wiliam of national systems makes clear the complexity of assessment, and identifies important issues. One of these is "balance": balance between local and central responsibilities, balance between the weights given to various purposes of schooling, balance between weights for various functions of assessment, and balance…

  1. Dynamic balance improvement program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butner, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    The reduction of residual unbalance in the space shuttle main engine (SSME) high pressure turbopump rotors was addressed. Elastic rotor response to unbalance and balancing requirements, multiplane and in housing balancing, and balance related rotor design considerations were assessed. Recommendations are made for near term improvement of the SSME balancing and for future study and development efforts.

  2. A confidence parameter for seismic moment tensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tape, Walter; Tape, Carl

    2016-02-01

    Given a moment tensor m inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighborhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability hat{P}(ω ) and the fractional volume hat{V}(ω ) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius ω of m. We explain how to construct hat{P}(ω ) from a misfit function derived from seismic data, and we show how to calculate hat{V}(ω ), which depends on the set M of moment tensors under consideration. The two most important instances of M are where M is the set of all moment tensors of fixed norm, and where M is the set of all double couples of fixed norm.

  3. Germany and America: Crisis of confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Asmus, R.D.

    1991-02-01

    The paper examines the deterioration in German-American relations. The reasons for this downturn in German-American relations are quite simple. Washington views the Persian Gulf crisis as a defining moment in European-American relations and in the creation of a new world order. It is also the first diplomatic test of a unified Germany and a new German-American relationship. It is a test that Germany is thus far seen as having failed for three reasons. First, from the outset many Americans sensed that Germans did not comprehend what this crisis meant for the United States. A second and, in many ways, more worrying factor was the growing sense that the Germans were not being good Europeans. The third and most serious American concern, however, was the unsettling appearance of a very selective German definition of collective defense and common security. The result has been a crisis of confidence in the performance of the German political elite that goes beyond the problems in German-American relations during the early 1980s and the INF debate.

  4. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The theory and applications of a time domain modal test technique are presented. The method uses free decay of random responses from a structure under test to identify its modal characteristics namely, natural frequencies, damping factors, and mode shapes. The method can identify multimodal (highly coupled) systems and modes that have very small contribution in the responses. A method is presented to decrease the effects of high levels of noise in the data and thus improve the accuracy of identified parameters. This is accomplished using an oversized mathematical model. The concept of modal confidence factor (MCF) is developed. The MCF is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.000 for a distorted, nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exits between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF is illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two degree of freedom system with 20 percent, 40 percent, and 100 percent noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained about 22 percent noise.

  5. Towards better counselling. Keeping confidences. Training activities.

    PubMed

    1996-01-01

    Presented are two training exercises for health personnel who counsel individuals about the results of blood tests for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). The first exercise is preceded by remarks on the importance of trust and confidentiality in the clinical encounter. Then, participants are divided into pairs and instructed to think of a person they trust and to list 10 characteristics of that person. These attributes are compiled for the entire group. Next, small groups of 3-4 participants discuss the following questions: What do you need to say and do when you are counseling someone to help them have confidence in you? What do you need to do to enable them to keep trusting you? What might happen when confidentiality is broken? What are the benefits of maintaining confidentiality? Finally, the small groups are given case scenarios of breaches of client confidentiality and asked to imagine both how they would feel in such a situation and how it could have been prevented. The second exercise seeks to increase counselors' understanding of clients' risk-taking behaviors and their ability to suspend personal judgment by having them describe incidents from their own lives when they took a risk related to sex, relationships, or money. PMID:12291931

  6. A confidence parameter for seismic moment tensors

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Tape, Walter; Tape, Carl

    2016-05-01

    Given a moment tensor m inferred from seismic data for an earthquake, we define P(V) to be the probability that the true moment tensor for the earthquake lies in the neighbourhood of m that has fractional volume V. The average value of P(V) is then a measure of our confidence in m. The calculation of P(V) requires knowing both the probability hat{P}(ω) and the fractional volume hat{V}(ω) of the set of moment tensors within a given angular radius ω of m. We explain how to construct hat{P}(ω) from a misfit function derived from seismic data, and we show how to calculate hat{V}(ω), which depends on the set M of moment tensors under consideration. The two most important instances of M are where M is the set of all moment tensors of fixed norm, and where M is the set of all double couples of fixed norm.

  7. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  8. Girls and Women, Sport, and Self-Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lirgg, Cathy D.

    1992-01-01

    Analyzes research on females' self-confidence in sport and physical activity. The article compares three models that link confidence to achievement, examines research variables that may influence female self-confidence, discusses sex differences, and offers enhancement strategies and future research directions. (SM)

  9. Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Griffitts, Dawn

    2003-01-01

    This economic education publication features an article, "Does Consumer Confidence Measure Up to the Hype?," which defines consumer confidence and describes how it is measured. The article also explores why people might pay so much attention to consumer confidence indexes. The document also contains a question and answer section about deflation as…

  10. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  11. Predicting Postfeedback Performance from Students' Confidence in Their Responses.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bender, Timothy A.

    The model of feedback processing proposed by R. W. Kulhavy and W. A. Stock (1989) was studied in a traditional classroom setting in which methods of assessing students' response confidence as predictors of postfeedback performance were also examined. The relationship between confidence ratings at the time of the test and confidence assessed prior…

  12. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  13. The 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey: job insecurity, debt weigh on retirement confidence, savings.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2012-03-01

    Americans' confidence in their ability to retire comfortably is stagnant at historically low levels. Just 14 percent are very confident they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement (statistically equivalent to the low of 13 percent measured in 2011 and 2009). Employment insecurity looms large: Forty-two percent identify job uncertainty as the most pressing financial issue facing most Americans today. Worker confidence about having enough money to pay for medical expenses and long-term care expenses in retirement remains well below their confidence levels for paying basic expenses. Many workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. In total, 60 percent of workers report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000. Twenty-five percent of workers in the 2012 Retirement Confidence Survey say the age at which they expect to retire has changed in the past year. In 1991, 11 percent of workers said they expected to retire after age 65, and by 2012 that has grown to 37 percent. Regardless of those retirement age expectations, and consistent with prior RCS findings, half of current retirees surveyed say they left the work force unexpectedly due to health problems, disability, or changes at their employer, such as downsizing or closure. Those already in retirement tend to express higher levels of confidence than current workers about several key financial aspects of retirement. Retirees report they are significantly more reliant on Social Security as a major source of their retirement income than current workers expect to be. Although 56 percent of workers expect to receive benefits from a defined benefit plan in retirement, only 33 percent report that they and/or their spouse currently have such a benefit with a current or previous employer. More than half of workers (56 percent) report they and/or their spouse have not tried

  14. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  15. Relating confidence to information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-12-02

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing security risk results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to determine a qualitative measure of confidence in a qualitative reasoning result from the available information uncertainty in the result using membership values in the fuzzy sets of confidence. In this study information uncertainty is quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values. Measured values of information uncertainty in each result is used to obtain the confidence. The determined confidence values are used to compare competing scenarios and understand the influences on the desired result.

  16. Effects of postidentification feedback on eyewitness identification and nonidentification confidence.

    PubMed

    Semmler, Carolyn; Brewer, Neil; Wells, Gary L

    2004-04-01

    Two experiments investigated new dimensions of the effect of confirming feedback on eyewitness identification confidence using target-absent and target-present lineups and (previously unused) unbiased witness instructions (i.e., "offender not present" option highlighted). In Experiment 1, participants viewed a crime video and were later asked to try to identify the thief from an 8-person target-absent photo array. Feedback inflated witness confidence for both mistaken identifications and correct lineup rejections. With target-present lineups in Experiment 2, feedback inflated confidence for correct and mistaken identifications and lineup rejections. Although feedback had no influence on the confidence-accuracy correlation, it produced clear overconfidence. Confidence inflation varied with the confidence measure reference point (i.e., retrospective vs. current confidence) and identification response latency. PMID:15065979

  17. Crisis Prevention Centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for the Middle East

    SciTech Connect

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are important in this area, and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, interrelated categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. Technology is required for establishing communication systems to ensure the timely flow of information between countries and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues, thereby supporting the implementation of confidence building measures and treaties. Technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries, thereby providing an important channel for improving relationships. Potential first steps for a CPC in the Middle Ease could include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a ``Hot Line` in bilateral and multilateral-lateral emergency situations. Bilateral cooperative monitoring centers could be established to assist with implementation of agreements. A centrally located CPC could serve as a regional communications hub, coordinating a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities. Specific recommendations for confidence building activities are discussed.

  18. Two evolutionarily conserved repression domains in the Drosophila Kruppel protein differ in activator specificity.

    PubMed Central

    Hanna-Rose, W; Licht, J D; Hansen, U

    1997-01-01

    To identify biologically functional regions in the product of the Drosophila melanogaster gene Kruppel, we cloned the Kruppel homolog from Drosophila virilis. Both the previously identified amino (N)-terminal repression region and the DNA-binding region of the D. virilis Kruppel protein are greater than 96% identical to those of the D. melanogaster Kruppel protein, demonstrating a selective pressure to maintain the integrity of each region during 60 million to 80 million years of evolution. An additional region in the carboxyl (C) terminus of Kruppel that was most highly conserved was examined further. A 42-amino-acid stretch within the conserved C-terminal region also encoded a transferable repression domain. The short, C-terminal repression region is a composite of three subregions of distinct amino acid composition, each containing a high proportion of either basic, proline, or acidic residues. Mutagenesis experiments demonstrated, unexpectedly, that the acidic residues contribute to repression function. Both the N-terminal and C-terminal repression regions were tested for the ability to affect transcription mediated by a variety of activator proteins. The N-terminal repression region was able to inhibit transcription in the presence of multiple activators. However, the C-terminal repression region inhibited transcription by only a subset of the activator proteins. The different activator specificities of the two regions suggest that they repress transcription by different mechanisms and may play distinct biological roles during Drosophila development. PMID:9234738

  19. Measuring Patterns of Surgeon Confidence Using a Novel Assessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Timothy M; Ghaderi, Iman; McPhail, Lindsee E; Alger, Amy R; Meyers, Michael O; Meyer, Anthony A

    2016-01-01

    Confidence should increase during surgical training and practice. However, few data exist regarding confidence of surgeons across this continuum. Confidence may develop differently in clinical and personal domains, or may erode as specialization or age restricts practice. A reliable scale of confidence is needed to track this competency. A novel survey was distributed to surgeons in private and academic settings. One hundred and thirty-four respondents completed this cross-sectional survey. Surgeons reported anticipated reactions to clinical scenarios within three patient care domains (acute inpatient, nonacute inpatient, and outpatient) and in personal spheres. Confidence scores were plotted against years of experience. Curves of best fit were generated and trends assessed. A subgroup completed a second survey after four years to assess the survey's reliability over time. During residency, there is steep improvement in confidence reported by surgeons in all clinical domains, with further increase for inpatient domains during transition into practice. Confidence in personal spheres also increases quickly during residency and thereafter. The surgeon confidence scale captures the expected acquisition of confidence during early surgical experience, and will have value in following trends in surgeon confidence as training and practice patterns change. PMID:26802851

  20. Skylab water balance analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1977-01-01

    The water balance of the Skylab crew was analyzed. Evaporative water loss using a whole body input/output balance equation, water, body tissue, and energy balance was analyzed. The approach utilizes the results of several major Skylab medical experiments. Subsystems were designed for the use of the software necessary for the analysis. A partitional water balance that graphically depicts the changes due to water intake is presented. The energy balance analysis determines the net available energy to the individual crewman during any period. The balances produce a visual description of the total change of a particular body component during the course of the mission. The information is salvaged from metabolic balance data if certain techniques are used to reduce errors inherent in the balance method.

  1. What is balance?

    PubMed

    Pollock, A S; Durward, B R; Rowe, P J; Paul, J P

    2000-08-01

    Balance is a term frequently used by health professionals working in a wide variety of clinical specialities. There is no universally accepted definition of human balance, or related terms. This article identifies mechanical definitions of balance and introduces clinical definitions of balance and postural control. Postural control is defined as the act of maintaining, achieving or restoring a state of balance during any posture or activity. Postural control strategies may be either predictive or reactive, and may involve either a fixed-support or a change-in-support response. Clinical tests of balance assess different components of balance ability. Health professionals should select clinical assessments based on a sound knowledge and understanding of the classification of balance and postural control strategies. PMID:10945424

  2. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOEpatents

    Decker, D.E.

    1998-02-17

    A beamsplitter assembly is disclosed that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting. 10 figs.

  3. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOEpatents

    Decker, Derek E.

    1998-01-01

    A beamsplitter assembly that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting.

  4. Wind Tunnel Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warner, Edward P; Norton, F H

    1920-01-01

    Report embodies a description of the balance designed and constructed for the use of the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics at Langley Field, and also deals with the theory of sensitivity of balances and with the errors to which wind tunnel balances of various types are subject.

  5. Coaching for Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Bonnie

    2001-01-01

    Discusses coaching for balance the integration of the whole self: physical (body), intellectual (mind), spiritual (soul), and emotional (heart). Offers four ways to identify problems and tell whether someone is out of balance and four coaching techniques for creating balance. (Contains 11 references.) (JOW)

  6. Variance misperception explains illusions of confidence in simple perceptual decisions.

    PubMed

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Roelfsema, Pieter R; Sigman, Mariano

    2014-07-01

    Confidence in a perceptual decision is a judgment about the quality of the sensory evidence. The quality of the evidence depends not only on its strength ('signal') but critically on its reliability ('noise'), but the separate contribution of these quantities to the formation of confidence judgments has not been investigated before in the context of perceptual decisions. We studied subjective confidence reports in a multi-element perceptual task where evidence strength and reliability could be manipulated independently. Our results reveal a confidence paradox: confidence is higher for stimuli of lower reliability that are associated with a lower accuracy. We show that the subjects' overconfidence in trials with unreliable evidence is caused by a reduced sensitivity to stimulus variability. Our results bridge between the investigation of miss-attributions of confidence in behavioral economics and the domain of simple perceptual decisions amenable to neuroscience research. PMID:24951943

  7. Reconceptualizing balance: attributes associated with balance performance.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Julia C; Odonkor, Charles; Griffith, Laura; Holt, Nicole; Percac-Lima, Sanja; Leveille, Suzanne; Ni, Pensheng; Latham, Nancy K; Jette, Alan M; Bean, Jonathan F

    2014-09-01

    Balance tests are commonly used to screen for impairments that put older adults at risk for falls. The purpose of this study was to determine the attributes that were associated with balance performance as measured by the Frailty and Injuries: Cooperative Studies of Intervention Techniques (FICSIT) balance test. This study was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from a longitudinal cohort study, the Boston Rehabilitative Impairment Study of the Elderly (Boston RISE). Boston RISE was performed in an outpatient rehabilitation research center and evaluated Boston area primary care patients aged 65 to 96 (N=364) with self-reported difficulty or task-modification climbing a flight of stairs or walking 1/2 of a mile. The outcome measure was standing balance as measured by the FICSIT-4 balance assessment. Other measures included: self-efficacy, pain, depression, executive function, vision, sensory loss, reaction time, kyphosis, leg range of motion, trunk extensor muscle endurance, leg strength and leg velocity at peak power. Participants were 67% female, had an average age of 76.5 (±7.0) years, an average of 4.1 (±2.0) chronic conditions, and an average FICSIT-4 score of 6.7 (±2.2) out of 9. After adjusting for age and gender, attributes significantly associated with balance performance were falls self-efficacy, trunk extensor muscle endurance, sensory loss, and leg velocity at peak power. FICSIT-4 balance performance is associated with a number of behavioral and physiologic attributes, many of which are amenable to rehabilitative treatment. Our findings support a consideration of balance as multidimensional activity as proposed by the current International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) model. PMID:24952097

  8. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  9. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    PubMed Central

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  10. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    PubMed

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings. PMID:21902013

  11. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  12. True and false memories, parietal cortex, and confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Urgolites, Zhisen J; Smith, Christine N; Squire, Larry R

    2015-11-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory). Accordingly, it has often been difficult to know whether a finding is related to memory confidence or memory accuracy. In the current study, participants made recognition memory judgments with confidence ratings in response to previously studied scenes and novel scenes. The left hippocampus and 16 other brain regions distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were different for the two conditions. Only three regions (all in the parietal cortex) distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were equated. These findings illustrate the utility of taking confidence ratings into account when identifying brain regions associated with true and false memories. Neural correlates of true and false memories are most easily interpreted when confidence ratings are similar for the two kinds of memories. PMID:26472645

  13. Producing "Confident" Children: Negotiating Childhood in Fijian Kindergartens

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brison, Karen J.

    2011-01-01

    Kindergartens in Fiji contribute to incipient class-based identities in a society traditionally structured by ethnicity. Teachers emphasize making children confident, but define confidence differently with varying student groups, building class-based orientations toward person and society. Parental expectations also differ with many upwardly…

  14. The Confident Learner: Help Your Child Succeed in School.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simic, Marjorie R.; And Others

    This book is intended to assist parents in helping their children become confident learners and self-reliant individuals who succeed in school. The book maintains that children become confident learners by developing high self-esteem, strong motivation, self-discipline, good health and fitness, and the ability to deal with stress. Following an…

  15. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  16. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  17. Bootstrapping Confidence Intervals for Robust Measures of Association.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    King, Jason E.

    A Monte Carlo simulation study was conducted to determine the bootstrap correction formula yielding the most accurate confidence intervals for robust measures of association. Confidence intervals were generated via the percentile, adjusted, BC, and BC(a) bootstrap procedures and applied to the Winsorized, percentage bend, and Pearson correlation…

  18. Influence of Achievement Beliefs on Adolescent Girls' Sport Confidence Sources.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Magyar, T. Michelle; Feltz, Deborah L.

    A study was conducted on the influence of female athletes' dispositional and situational tendencies on the selection of sources of sport confidence. It hypothesized that task orientation and perceptions of mastery climate would be positively associated with the selection of maladaptive or normative sources of confidence. Participants were 180…

  19. Information and Communication: Tools for Increasing Confidence in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    Beginning with a review of signs and signals of public attitudes toward American education over the last 15 years, this paper analyzes some concerns regarding public confidence in public schools. Following a brief introduction, issues involved in the definition and behavioral attributes of confidence are mentioned. A synopsis of three approaches…

  20. Confidence and Gender Differences on the Mental Rotations Test

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cooke-Simpson, Amanda; Voyer, Daniel

    2007-01-01

    The present study examined the relation between self-reported confidence ratings, performance on the Mental Rotations Test (MRT), and guessing behavior on the MRT. Eighty undergraduate students (40 males, 40 females) completed the MRT while rating their confidence in the accuracy of their answers for each item. As expected, gender differences in…

  1. Subjective Confidence in One's Answers: The Consensuality Principle

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2008-01-01

    In answering general-information questions, a within-person confidence-accuracy (C-A) correlation is typically observed, suggesting that people can monitor the correctness of their knowledge. However, because the correct answer is generally the consensual answer--the one endorsed by most participants--confidence judgment may actually monitor the…

  2. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  3. A Rasch Analysis of the Teachers Music Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yim, Hoi Yin Bonnie; Abd-El-Fattah, Sabry; Lee, Lai Wan Maria

    2007-01-01

    This article presents a new measure of teachers' confidence to conduct musical activities with young children; Teachers Music Confidence Scale (TMCS). The TMCS was developed using a sample of 284 in-service and pre-service early childhood teachers in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR). The TMCS consisted of 10 musical activities.…

  4. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  5. Supplementary Eye Field Encodes Confidence in Decisions Under Risk.

    PubMed

    So, NaYoung; Stuphorn, Veit

    2016-02-01

    Choices are made with varying degrees of confidence, a cognitive signal representing the subjective belief in the optimality of the choice. Confidence has been mostly studied in the context of perceptual judgments, in which choice accuracy can be measured using objective criteria. Here, we study confidence in subjective value-based decisions. We recorded in the supplementary eye field (SEF) of monkeys performing a gambling task, where they had to use subjective criteria for placing bets. We found neural signals in the SEF that explicitly represent choice confidence independent from reward expectation. This confidence signal appeared after the choice and diminished before the choice outcome. Most of this neuronal activity was negatively correlated with confidence, and was strongest in trials on which the monkey spontaneously withdrew his choice. Such confidence-related activity indicates that the SEF not only guides saccade selection, but also evaluates the likelihood that the choice was optimal. This internal evaluation influences decisions concerning the willingness to bear later costs that follow from the choice or to avoid them. More generally, our findings indicate that choice confidence is an integral component of all forms of decision-making, whether they are based on perceptual evidence or on value estimations. PMID:25750256

  6. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  7. Recognition confidence under violated and confirmed memory expectations

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, Antonio; Cox, Justin C.; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2011-01-01

    Our memory experiences typically covary with those of the others’ around us, and on average, an item is more likely to be familiar than not, if a companion recommends it as such. Although it would be ideal if observers could use the external recommendations of others as statistical priors during recognition decisions, it is currently unclear how or if they do so. Furthermore, understanding the sensitivity of recognition judgments to such external cues is critical for understanding memory conformity and eyewitness suggestibility phenomena. To address this we examined recognition accuracy and confidence following cues from an external source (e.g., “Likely old”) that forecast the likely status of upcoming memory probes. Three regularities emerged. First, hit and correction rejection rates expectedly fell when subjects were invalidly versus validly cued. Second, hit confidence was generally higher than correct rejection confidence, regardless of cue validity. Finally, and most noteworthy, cue validity interacted with judgment confidence such that validity heavily influenced the confidence of correct rejections, but had no discernable influence on the confidence of hits. Bootstrap informed Monte Carlo simulation supported a dual process recognition model under which familiarity and recollection processes counteract to heavily dampen the influence of external cues on average reported confidence. A third experiment tested this model using source memory. As predicted, because source memory is heavily governed by contextual recollection, cue validity again did not affect confidence, although as with recognition, it clearly altered accuracy. PMID:21967231

  8. Feedback Dependence Among Low Confidence Preadolescent Boys and Girls.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Michael J.; Corbin, Charles B.

    1988-01-01

    Investigation of differences between male and female students' reactions to receiving or not receiving performance feedback indicated that both sexes showed lower self-confidence when they did not receive feedback and that lack of self-confidence impaired the performance of males more than females. Participants were 111 fifth- and sixth-grade…

  9. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  10. An Application of the Poisson Race Model to Confidence Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merkle, Edgar C.; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2006-01-01

    In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice. The current study examines the mathematical modeling of confidence calibration in a simple dual-choice task. Experiments are motivated by an accumulator…

  11. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  12. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  13. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    SciTech Connect

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  14. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  15. RIASEC Interest and Confidence Cutoff Scores: Implications for Career Counseling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bonitz, Verena S.; Armstrong, Patrick Ian; Larson, Lisa M.

    2010-01-01

    One strategy commonly used to simplify the joint interpretation of interest and confidence inventories is the use of cutoff scores to classify individuals dichotomously as having high or low levels of confidence and interest, respectively. The present study examined the adequacy of cutoff scores currently recommended for the joint interpretation…

  16. Prospective Teachers' Problem Solving Skills and Self-Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gursen Otacioglu, Sena

    2008-01-01

    The basic objective of the research is to determine whether the education that prospective teachers in different fields receive is related to their levels of problem solving skills and self-confidence. Within the mentioned framework, the prospective teachers' problem solving and self-confidence levels have been examined under several variables.…

  17. Self-Confidence in Women's Education: A Feminist Critique.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Davis, Fran; Steiger, Arlene

    While acknowledging the research that suggests that women approach their education with lower levels of self-confidence than men, this paper raises fundamental questions about how self-confidence has been described and measured during the last two decades. The validity of work on women's attitudes toward academic success is shown to be undercut by…

  18. Development of Confidence in Child Behavior Management through Role Playing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kress, Gerard C., Jr.; Ehrlichs, Melvin A.

    1990-01-01

    In a preclinical course in pediatric dentistry, 76 students were taught child behavior management through role playing of 7-10 common management situations. Pre- and postcourse measures of student confidence found that, although older students were more confident, all gained significantly from the training. Other student characteristics were also…

  19. A Note on Confidence Interval Estimation and Margin of Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliland, Dennis; Melfi, Vince

    2010-01-01

    Confidence interval estimation is a fundamental technique in statistical inference. Margin of error is used to delimit the error in estimation. Dispelling misinterpretations that teachers and students give to these terms is important. In this note, we give examples of the confusion that can arise in regard to confidence interval estimation and…

  20. A (revised) confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaubaillon, J.

    2016-01-01

    A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. The goal is to provide users with information regarding the way the forecasting is performed, so several degrees of confidence is achieved. This paper presents the meaning of the index coding system.

  1. Balancing the Scholarship Demands of Forensics and Graduate Study.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kuper, Glenn

    It is difficult to strike a balance between the demands placed on graduate students and those placed on graduate forensics assistants. The combination of duties as Graduate Forensics Assistants (GFAs)--baby sitters, confidants, teachers, travel agents, administrators, clerical workers, psychologists, proofreaders, authority figures, and finally,…

  2. Automatic integration of confidence in the brain valuation signal.

    PubMed

    Lebreton, Maël; Abitbol, Raphaëlle; Daunizeau, Jean; Pessiglione, Mathias

    2015-08-01

    A key process in decision-making is estimating the value of possible outcomes. Growing evidence suggests that different types of values are automatically encoded in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (VMPFC). Here we extend this idea by suggesting that any overt judgment is accompanied by a second-order valuation (a confidence estimate), which is also automatically incorporated in VMPFC activity. In accordance with the predictions of our normative model of rating tasks, two behavioral experiments showed that confidence levels were quadratically related to first-order judgments (age, value or probability ratings). The analysis of three functional magnetic resonance imaging data sets using similar rating tasks confirmed that the quadratic extension of first-order ratings (our proxy for confidence) was encoded in VMPFC activity, even if no confidence judgment was required of the participants. Such an automatic aggregation of value and confidence in a same brain region might provide insight into many distortions of judgment and choice. PMID:26192748

  3. Can nursing students' confidence levels increase with repeated simulation activities?

    PubMed

    Cummings, Cynthia L; Connelly, Linda K

    2016-01-01

    In 2014, nursing faculty conducted a study with undergraduate nursing students on their satisfaction, confidence, and educational practice levels, as it related to simulation activities throughout the curriculum. The study was a voluntary survey conducted on junior and senior year nursing students. It consisted of 30 items based on the Student Satisfaction and Self-Confidence in Learning and the Educational Practices Questionnaire (Jeffries, 2012). Mean averages were obtained for each of the 30 items from both groups and were compared using T scores for unpaired means. The results showed that 8 of the items had a 95% confidence level and when combined the items were significant for p <.001. The items identified were those related to self-confidence and active learning. Based on these findings, it can be assumed that repeated simulation experiences can lead to an increase in student confidence and active learning. PMID:26599594

  4. Pre-competitive confidence, coping, and subjective performance in sport.

    PubMed

    Levy, A R; Nicholls, A R; Polman, R C J

    2011-10-01

    The primary aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between confidence and subjective performance in addition to exploring whether coping mediated this relationship. A sample of 414 athletes completed a measure of confidence before performance. Athletes also completed a measure of coping and subjective performance after competing. Correlational findings revealed that confidence was positively and significantly associated with subjective performance. Furthermore, mediational analysis found that coping partly mediated this relationship. In particular, task-oriented coping (i.e., mental imagery) and disengagement-oriented coping (i.e., resignation) had positive and negative mediational effects, respectively. Additionally, athletes who employed mental imagery generally coped more effectively than those using resignation. These findings imply mental imagery has the potential not only to improve confidence, but also subsequent performance, while resignation coping may have the opposite effect. Overall, these results lend some credence to Vealey's integrated sports confidence model. PMID:20459476

  5. Playing with confidence: the relationship between imagery use and self-confidence and self-efficacy in youth soccer players.

    PubMed

    Munroe-Chandler, Krista; Hall, Craig; Fishburne, Graham

    2008-12-01

    Confidence has been one of the most consistent factors in distinguishing the successful from the unsuccessful athletes (Gould, Weiss, & Weinberg, 1981) and Bandura (1997) proposed that imagery is one way to enhance confidence. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to examine the relationship between imagery use and confidence in soccer (football) players. The participants included 122 male and female soccer athletes ages 11-14 years participating in both house/ recreation (n = 72) and travel/competitive (n = 50) levels. Athletes completed three questionnaires; one measuring the frequency of imagery use, one assessing generalised self-confidence, and one assessing self-efficacy in soccer. A series of regression analyses found that Motivational General-Mastery (MG-M) imagery was a signifant predictor of self-confidence and self-efficacy in both recreational and competitive youth soccer players. More specifically, MG-M imagery accounted for between 40 and 57% of the variance for both self-confidence and self-efficacy with two other functions (MG-A and MS) contributing marginally in the self-confidence regression for recreational athletes. These findings suggest that if a youth athlete, regardless of competitive level, wants to increase his/her self-confidence or self-efficacy through the use of imagery, the MG-M function should be emphasised. PMID:18949659

  6. Developing scientific confidence in HTS-derived prediction models: lessons learned from an endocrine case study.

    PubMed

    Cox, Louis Anthony; Popken, Douglas; Marty, M Sue; Rowlands, J Craig; Patlewicz, Grace; Goyak, Katy O; Becker, Richard A

    2014-08-01

    High throughput (HTS) and high content (HCS) screening methods show great promise in changing how hazard and risk assessments are undertaken, but scientific confidence in such methods and associated prediction models needs to be established prior to regulatory use. Using a case study of HTS-derived models for predicting in vivo androgen (A), estrogen (E), thyroid (T) and steroidogenesis (S) endpoints in endocrine screening assays, we compare classification (fitting) models to cross validation (prediction) models. The more robust cross validation models (based on a set of endocrine ToxCast™ assays and guideline in vivo endocrine screening studies) have balanced accuracies from 79% to 85% for A and E, but only 23% to 50% for T and S. Thus, for E and A, HTS results appear promising for initial use in setting priorities for endocrine screening. However, continued research is needed to expand the domain of applicability and to develop more robust HTS/HCS-based prediction models prior to their use in other regulatory applications. Based on the lessons learned, we propose a framework for documenting scientific confidence in HTS assays and the prediction models derived therefrom. The documentation, transparency and the scientific rigor involved in addressing the elements in the proposed Scientific Confidence Framework could aid in discussions and decisions about the prediction accuracy needed for different applications. PMID:24845243

  7. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  8. Doubly Bayesian Analysis of Confidence in Perceptual Decision-Making

    PubMed Central

    Bahrami, Bahador; Latham, Peter E.

    2015-01-01

    Humans stand out from other animals in that they are able to explicitly report on the reliability of their internal operations. This ability, which is known as metacognition, is typically studied by asking people to report their confidence in the correctness of some decision. However, the computations underlying confidence reports remain unclear. In this paper, we present a fully Bayesian method for directly comparing models of confidence. Using a visual two-interval forced-choice task, we tested whether confidence reports reflect heuristic computations (e.g. the magnitude of sensory data) or Bayes optimal ones (i.e. how likely a decision is to be correct given the sensory data). In a standard design in which subjects were first asked to make a decision, and only then gave their confidence, subjects were mostly Bayes optimal. In contrast, in a less-commonly used design in which subjects indicated their confidence and decision simultaneously, they were roughly equally likely to use the Bayes optimal strategy or to use a heuristic but suboptimal strategy. Our results suggest that, while people’s confidence reports can reflect Bayes optimal computations, even a small unusual twist or additional element of complexity can prevent optimality. PMID:26517475

  9. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  10. Neural correlates of perceived confidence in a partial report paradigm.

    PubMed

    Graziano, Martín; Parra, Lucas C; Sigman, Mariano

    2015-06-01

    Confidence judgments are often severely distorted: People may feel underconfident when responding correctly or, conversely, overconfident in erred responses. Our aim here was to identify the timing of brain processes that lead to variations in objective performance and subjective judgments of confidence. We capitalized on the Partial Report Paradigm [Sperling, G. The information available in brief visual presentations. Psychological Monographs: General and Applied, 74, 1, 1960], which allowed us to separate experimentally the moment of encoding of information from that of its retrieval [Zylberberg, A., Dehaene, S., Mindlin, G. B., & Sigman, M. Neurophysiological bases of exponential sensory decay and top-down memory retrieval: A model. Frontiers in Computational Neuroscience, 3, 2009]. We observed that the level of subjective confidence is indexed by two very specific evoked potentials at latencies of about 400 and 600 msec during the retrieval stage and by a stationary measure of intensity of the alpha band during the encoding period. When factoring out the effect of confidence, objective performance shows a weak effect during the encoding and retrieval periods. These results have relevant implications for theories of decision-making and confidence, suggesting that confidence is not constructed online as evidence is accumulated toward a decision. Instead, confidence attributions are more consistent with a retrospective mechanism that monitors the entire decision process. PMID:25390193

  11. Public eyewitness confidence ratings can differ from those held privately.

    PubMed

    Shaw, J S; Zerr, T K; Woythaler, K A

    2001-04-01

    Despite much research on eyewitness confidence, we know very little about whether confidence ratings given in public might differ from those held privately. This study tested a prediction derived from self-presentation theory that eyewitnesses will give lower confidence ratings in public when there is a possibility of their account being contradicted by other witnesses as compared to when they report their confidence in private. In groups of 3 or 4 people, 96 participants watched a videotape of a simulated robbery and then answered 16 forced-choice questions about details from the videotape. In half of the experimental sessions, the participants shared their answers and confidence ratings aloud with the other participants (public condition), and in the other half, the answers and ratings were not shared (private). As predicted, confidence ratings were significantly lower in the public condition than in the private condition, but the privacy manipulation had no effect on response accuracy. These results are consistent with a self-presentation explanation, and they highlight the need to examine public confidence ratings more thoroughly. PMID:11419379

  12. Identifying Balance in a Balanced Scorecard System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aravamudhan, Suhanya; Kamalanabhan, T. J.

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, strategic management concepts seem to be gaining greater attention from the academicians and the practitioner's alike. Balanced Scorecard (BSC) concept is one such management concepts that has spread in worldwide business and consulting communities. The BSC translates mission and vision statements into a comprehensive set of…

  13. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  14. Validation, Uncertainty, and Quantitative Reliability at Confidence (QRC)

    SciTech Connect

    Logan, R W; Nitta, C K

    2002-12-06

    This paper represents a summary of our methodology for Verification and Validation and Uncertainty Quantification. A graded scale methodology is presented and related to other concepts in the literature. We describe the critical nature of quantified Verification and Validation with Uncertainty Quantification at specified Confidence levels in evaluating system certification status. Only after Verification and Validation has contributed to Uncertainty Quantification at specified confidence can rational tradeoffs of various scenarios be made. Verification and Validation methods for various scenarios and issues are applied in assessments of Quantified Reliability at Confidence and we summarize briefly how this can lead to a Value Engineering methodology for investment strategy.

  15. Estimation of confidence intervals for federal waterfowl harvest surveys

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Geissler, P.H.

    1990-01-01

    I developed methods of estimating confidence intervals for the federal waterfowl harvest surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). I estimated flyway harvest confidence intervals for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) (95% CI are .+-. 8% of the estimate). Canada geese (Branta canadensis) (.+-. 11%), black ducks (Anas rubripes) (.+-. 16%), canvasbacks (Aythya valisineria) (.+-. 32%), snow geese (Chen caerulescens) (.+-. 43%), and brant (Branta bernicla) (.+-. 46%). Differences between annual estimate of 10, 13, 22, 42, 43, and 58% could be detected with mallards, Canada geese, black ducks, canvasbacks, snow geese, and brant, respectively. Estimated confidence intervals for state harvests tended to be much larger than those for the flyway estimates.

  16. Judicial Checks and Balances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    La Porta, Rafael; Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio; Pop-Eleches, Cristian; Shleifer, Andrei

    2004-01-01

    In the Anglo-American constitutional tradition, judicial checks and balances are often seen as crucial guarantees of freedom. Hayek distinguishes two ways in which the judiciary provides such checks and balances: judicial independence and constitutional review. We create a new database of constitutional rules in 71 countries that reflect these…

  17. Inevitability of Balance Restoration

    PubMed Central

    2010-01-01

    Prolonged imbalance between input and output of any element in a living organism is incompatible with life. The duration of imbalance varies, but eventually balance is achieved. This rule applies to any quantifiable element in a compartment of finite capacity. Transient discrepancies occur regularly, but given sufficient time, balance is always achieved, because permanent imbalance is impossible, and the mechanism for eventual restoration of balance is foolproof. The kidney is a central player for balance restoration of fluid and electrolytes, but the smartness of the kidney is not the reason for perfect balance. The kidney merely accelerates the process. The most crucial element of the control system is that discrepancy between intake and output inevitably leads to a change in total content of the element in the system, and uncorrected balance has a cumulative effect on the overall content of the element. In a living organism, the speed of restoration of balance depends on the permissible duration of imbalance without death or severe disability. The three main factors that influence the speed of balance restoration are: magnitude of flux, basal store, and capacity for additional storage. For most electrolytes, total capacity is such that a substantial discrepancy is not possible for more than a week or two. Most control mechanisms correct abnormality partially. The infinite gain control mechanism is unique in that abnormality is completely corrected upon completion of compensation. PMID:21468193

  18. Chemical Equation Balancing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blakley, G. R.

    1982-01-01

    Reviews mathematical techniques for solving systems of homogeneous linear equations and demonstrates that the algebraic method of balancing chemical equations is a matter of solving a system of homogeneous linear equations. FORTRAN programs using this matrix method to chemical equation balancing are available from the author. (JN)

  19. Leadership: A Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hines, Thomas E.

    2011-01-01

    Maintaining balance in leadership can be difficult because balance is affected by the personality, strengths, and attitudes of the leader as well as the complicated environment within and outside the community college itself. This article explores what being a leader at the community college means, what the threats are to effective leadership, and…

  20. The Technology Balance Beam

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Coulson, Eddie K.

    2006-01-01

    "The Technology Balance Beam" is designed to question the role of technology within school districts. This case study chronicles a typical school district in relation to the school district's implementation of technology beginning in the 1995-1996 school year. The fundamental question that this scenario raises is, What is the balance between…

  1. A Balance of Power?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mosey, Edward

    1991-01-01

    The booming economy of the Pacific Northwest region promotes the dilemma of balancing the need for increased electrical power with the desire to maintain that region's unspoiled natural environment. Pertinent factors discussed within the balance equation are population trends, economic considerations, industrial power requirements, and…

  2. Balanced Literacy Instruction.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pressley, Michael; Roehrig, Alysia; Bogner, Kristen; Raphael, Lisa M.; Dolezal, Sara

    2002-01-01

    This article reviews the evidence for balanced literacy instruction in the elementary years. The case is made that the balanced instructional model is particularly appropriate and beneficial for students who have initial difficulties in learning to read and write. Key features of successful reading instruction programs are described. (Contains…

  3. Erratum: Action-Specific Disruption of Perceptual Confidence

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Fleming, S. M., Maniscalco, B., Ko, Y., Amendi, N., Ro, T., & Lau, H. (2015). Action-specific disruption of perceptual confidence. Psychological Science, 26, 89–98. (Original DOI: 10.1177/0956797614557697) PMID:25814500

  4. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  5. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  6. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-13

    ... Impact Statement AGENCY: Nuclear Regulatory Commission. ACTION: Draft generic environmental impact... issuing for public comment the draft generic environmental impact statement (DGEIS), NUREG-2157, ``Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement,'' that forms the regulatory basis for the...

  7. Strain Gauge Balance Uncertainty Analysis at NASA Langley: A Technical Review

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Tripp, John S.

    1999-01-01

    This paper describes a method to determine the uncertainties of measured forces and moments from multi-component force balances used in wind tunnel tests. A multivariate regression technique is first employed to estimate the uncertainties of the six balance sensitivities and 156 interaction coefficients derived from established balance calibration procedures. These uncertainties are then employed to calculate the uncertainties of force-moment values computed from observed balance output readings obtained during tests. Confidence and prediction intervals are obtained for each computed force and moment as functions of the actual measurands. Techniques are discussed for separate estimation of balance bias and precision uncertainties.

  8. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account

    PubMed Central

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-01-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable “feeling of knowing” or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  9. Improved reproducibility by assuring confidence in measurements in biomedical research.

    PubMed

    Plant, Anne L; Locascio, Laurie E; May, Willie E; Gallagher, Patrick D

    2014-09-01

    ‘Irreproducibility’ is symptomatic of a broader challenge in measurement in biomedical research. From the US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) perspective of rigorous metrology, reproducibility is only one aspect of establishing confidence in measurements. Appropriate controls, reference materials, statistics and informatics are required for a robust measurement process. Research is required to establish these tools for biological measurements, which will lead to greater confidence in research results. PMID:25166868

  10. The self-assessment of confidence, by one vocational trainee

    PubMed Central

    Leonard, Colin

    1979-01-01

    A list of important topics in general practice was constructed and a trainee was asked to indicate his confidence about each topic on a one to five scale. Repeated use showed different confidence ratings by the same trainee, and an attempt was made to correlate factual knowledge by using a multiple choice questionnaire. Despite important limitations, which are described, this method may be useful in identifying suitable topics for teaching during the trainee year. PMID:541789

  11. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    PubMed

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models. PMID:26112765

  12. Confidence-based somatic mutation evaluation and prioritization.

    PubMed

    Löwer, Martin; Renard, Bernhard Y; de Graaf, Jos; Wagner, Meike; Paret, Claudia; Kneip, Christoph; Türeci, Ozlem; Diken, Mustafa; Britten, Cedrik; Kreiter, Sebastian; Koslowski, Michael; Castle, John C; Sahin, Ugur

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR), to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence) and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence). All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50), none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set. PMID:23028300

  13. Confidence-based Somatic Mutation Evaluation and Prioritization

    PubMed Central

    de Graaf, Jos; Wagner, Meike; Paret, Claudia; Kneip, Christoph; Türeci, Özlem; Diken, Mustafa; Britten, Cedrik; Kreiter, Sebastian; Koslowski, Michael; Castle, John C.; Sahin, Ugur

    2012-01-01

    Next generation sequencing (NGS) has enabled high throughput discovery of somatic mutations. Detection depends on experimental design, lab platforms, parameters and analysis algorithms. However, NGS-based somatic mutation detection is prone to erroneous calls, with reported validation rates near 54% and congruence between algorithms less than 50%. Here, we developed an algorithm to assign a single statistic, a false discovery rate (FDR), to each somatic mutation identified by NGS. This FDR confidence value accurately discriminates true mutations from erroneous calls. Using sequencing data generated from triplicate exome profiling of C57BL/6 mice and B16-F10 melanoma cells, we used the existing algorithms GATK, SAMtools and SomaticSNiPer to identify somatic mutations. For each identified mutation, our algorithm assigned an FDR. We selected 139 mutations for validation, including 50 somatic mutations assigned a low FDR (high confidence) and 44 mutations assigned a high FDR (low confidence). All of the high confidence somatic mutations validated (50 of 50), none of the 44 low confidence somatic mutations validated, and 15 of 45 mutations with an intermediate FDR validated. Furthermore, the assignment of a single FDR to individual mutations enables statistical comparisons of lab and computation methodologies, including ROC curves and AUC metrics. Using the HiSeq 2000, single end 50 nt reads from replicates generate the highest confidence somatic mutation call set. PMID:23028300

  14. Improved central confidence intervals for the ratio of Poisson means

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Cousins, R. D.

    The problem of confidence intervals for the ratio of two unknown Poisson means was "solved" decades ago, but a closer examination reveals that the standard solution is far from optimal from the frequentist point of view. We construct a more powerful set of central confidence intervals, each of which is a (typically proper) subinterval of the corresponding standard interval. They also provide upper and lower confidence limits which are more restrictive than the standard limits. The construction follows Neyman's original prescription, though discreteness of the Poisson distribution and the presence of a nuisance parameter (one of the unknown means) lead to slightly conservative intervals. Philosophically, the issue of the appropriateness of the construction method is similar to the issue of conditioning on the margins in 2×2 contingency tables. From a frequentist point of view, the new set maintains (over) coverage of the unknown true value of the ratio of means at each stated confidence level, even though the new intervals are shorter than the old intervals by any measure (except for two cases where they are identical). As an example, when the number 2 is drawn from each Poisson population, the 90% CL central confidence interval on the ratio of means is (0.169, 5.196), rather than (0.108, 9.245). In the cited literature, such confidence intervals have applications in numerous branches of pure and applied science, including agriculture, wildlife studies, manufacturing, medicine, reliability theory, and elementary particle physics.

  15. The Development of Confidence Limits for Fatigue Strength Data

    SciTech Connect

    SUTHERLAND,HERBERT J.; VEERS,PAUL S.

    1999-11-09

    Over the past several years, extensive databases have been developed for the S-N behavior of various materials used in wind turbine blades, primarily fiberglass composites. These data are typically presented both in their raw form and curve fit to define their average properties. For design, confidence limits must be placed on these descriptions. In particular, most designs call for the 95/95 design values; namely, with a 95% level of confidence, the designer is assured that 95% of the material will meet or exceed the design value. For such material properties as the ultimate strength, the procedures for estimating its value at a particular confidence level is well defined if the measured values follow a normal or a log-normal distribution. Namely, based upon the number of sample points and their standard deviation, a commonly-found table may be used to determine the survival percentage at a particular confidence level with respect to its mean value. The same is true for fatigue data at a constant stress level (the number of cycles to failure N at stress level S{sub 1}). However, when the stress level is allowed to vary, as with a typical S-N fatigue curve, the procedures for determining confidence limits are not as well defined. This paper outlines techniques for determining confidence limits of fatigue data. Different approaches to estimating the 95/95 level are compared. Data from the MSU/DOE and the FACT fatigue databases are used to illustrate typical results.

  16. Pre-Service Elementary Teachers' Perceptions of Factors in an Holistic Methods Course Influencing their Confidence in Teaching Science

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Howitt, Christine

    2007-03-01

    Lack of confidence towards science is a major factor in the avoidance of teaching science at elementary school. This paper reports the results of a survey that asked 28 pre-service elementary teachers what they believed contributed to their confidence towards science and the teaching of science during a second year science unit where an holistic teaching/learning approach was taken. The holistic nature of the unit was based on a model that considered six major factors to be important influences on the confidence of the pre-service teacher. Using median values, and ranking from the most to least important factor influencing their confidence, the pre-service teachers identified practicum, teacher educator, pedagogical content knowledge, learning environment, assessment and reflection. Factors within pedagogical content knowledge, ranked from most to least important, were science pedagogy, science activities, children's views of science, science content knowledge and investigating scientifically. The wide variability in responses highlighted that no single factor was perceived to be a major contributor to the pre-service teachers' confidence, but rather a balanced mix was necessary. Implications for pre-service elementary science education units are discussed.

  17. Active balance system and vibration balanced machine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Qiu, Songgang (Inventor); Augenblick, John E. (Inventor); Peterson, Allen A. (Inventor); White, Maurice A. (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    An active balance system is provided for counterbalancing vibrations of an axially reciprocating machine. The balance system includes a support member, a flexure assembly, a counterbalance mass, and a linear motor or an actuator. The support member is configured for attachment to the machine. The flexure assembly includes at least one flat spring having connections along a central portion and an outer peripheral portion. One of the central portion and the outer peripheral portion is fixedly mounted to the support member. The counterbalance mass is fixedly carried by the flexure assembly along another of the central portion and the outer peripheral portion. The linear motor has one of a stator and a mover fixedly mounted to the support member and another of the stator and the mover fixedly mounted to the counterbalance mass. The linear motor is operative to axially reciprocate the counterbalance mass.

  18. Load Balancing Scientific Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Pearce, Olga Tkachyshyn

    2014-12-01

    The largest supercomputers have millions of independent processors, and concurrency levels are rapidly increasing. For ideal efficiency, developers of the simulations that run on these machines must ensure that computational work is evenly balanced among processors. Assigning work evenly is challenging because many large modern parallel codes simulate behavior of physical systems that evolve over time, and their workloads change over time. Furthermore, the cost of imbalanced load increases with scale because most large-scale scientific simulations today use a Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) parallel programming model, and an increasing number of processors will wait for the slowest one at the synchronization points. To address load imbalance, many large-scale parallel applications use dynamic load balance algorithms to redistribute work evenly. The research objective of this dissertation is to develop methods to decide when and how to load balance the application, and to balance it effectively and affordably. We measure and evaluate the computational load of the application, and develop strategies to decide when and how to correct the imbalance. Depending on the simulation, a fast, local load balance algorithm may be suitable, or a more sophisticated and expensive algorithm may be required. We developed a model for comparison of load balance algorithms for a specific state of the simulation that enables the selection of a balancing algorithm that will minimize overall runtime.

  19. A question of balance

    SciTech Connect

    Cook, G.; Brown, H.; Strawn, N.

    1996-12-31

    Nature seeks a balance. The global carbon cycle, in which carbon is exchanged between the atmosphere, biosphere, and oceans through natural processes such as absorption, photosynthesis, and respiration, is one of those balances. This constant exchange promotes an equilibrium in which atmospheric carbon dioxide is keep relatively steady over long periods of time. For the last 10,000 years, up to the 19th century, the global carbon cycle has maintained atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide between 260 and 290 ppm. This article discusses the disturbance of the balance, how ethanol fuels address the carbon dioxide imbalance, and a bioethanol strategy.

  20. Consideration of Dynamical Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

  1. Balance Evaluation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    NeuroCom's Balance Master is a system to assess and then retrain patients with balance and mobility problems and is used in several medical centers. NeuroCom received assistance in research and funding from NASA, and incorporated technology from testing mechanisms for astronauts after shuttle flights. The EquiTest and Balance Master Systems are computerized posturography machines that measure patient responses to movement of a platform on which the subject is standing or sitting, then provide assessments of the patient's postural alignment and stability.

  2. Errors in potassium balance

    SciTech Connect

    Forbes, G.B.; Lantigua, R.; Amatruda, J.M.; Lockwood, D.H.

    1981-01-01

    Six overweight adult subjects given a low calorie diet containing adequate amounts of nitrogen but subnormal amounts of potassium (K) were observed on the Clinical Research Center for periods of 29 to 40 days. Metabolic balance of potassium was measured together with frequent assays of total body K by /sup 40/K counting. Metabolic K balance underestimated body K losses by 11 to 87% (average 43%): the intersubject variability is such as to preclude the use of a single correction value for unmeasured losses in K balance studies.

  3. Mars Balance Challenge

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Challenge is to develop ideas for how NASA can turn available entry, descent, and landing balance mass on a future Mars mission into a scientific or technological payload. Proposed concepts sho...

  4. The Balanced Literacy Diet.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willows, Dale

    2002-01-01

    Describes professional development program in Ontario school district to improve student reading and writing skills. Program used food-pyramid concepts to help teacher learn to provide a balanced and flexible approach to literacy instruction based on student needs. (PKP)

  5. The Balancing Act

    SciTech Connect

    Fowler, Kimberly M.

    2008-05-01

    This essay is being proposed as part of a book titled: "Motherhood: The Elephant in the Laboratory." It offers professional and personal advice on how to balance working in the research field with a family life.

  6. Fluid and Electrolyte Balance

    MedlinePlus

    ... They are in your blood, urine and body fluids. Maintaining the right balance of electrolytes helps your ... them from the foods you eat and the fluids you drink. Levels of electrolytes in your body ...

  7. Parenting Confidence and Needs for Parents of Newborns in Taiwan

    PubMed Central

    Kuo, Ching-Pyng; Chuang, Hsiao-Ling; Lee, Shu-Hsin; Liao, Wen-Chun; Chang, Li-Yu; Lee, Meng-Chih

    2012-01-01

    Objective Parenting confidence with regards to caring for their infants is crucial for the healthy adaptation to parenthood and the development of positive parent-infant relationships. The postpartum period is a tremendous transitional time for parents, so their unique needs should be considered. This study explored parenting confidence and needs in parents when their newborns are discharged from hospital, and explored the best predictors of parenting confidence and needs. Methods A cross-sectional design with a questionnaire survey was used in this study. The questionnaire included three parts: Demographic, Parenting Needs and Parenting Confidence Questionnaire. We survey a convenience sample of 96 parents from a postnatal ward and a neonatal intermediate care unit of the medical central hospital in Taichung, Taiwan. Findings The mean age of the subjects was 32 years and 67.7% of the subjects’ education level was college or above. Approximately one half of the subjects was multiparous, vaginal delivery and had planned pregnancy. The mean gestational age and birth weight of the newborns was 37.7 weeks and 2902 g, respectively. Parents who had a planned pregnancy (t=2.1, P=0.04) or preterm infants (t=2.0, P=0.046) and those whose infants were delivered by cesarean section (t=2.2, P=0.03) had higher parenting needs. In addition, parents of low birth weight infants had higher parenting needs (r=-0.23, P=0.02). Regarding parenting confidence, multipara parents perceived higher confidence than primipara parents (t=2.9, P=0.005). Needs in psychosocial support were significantly correlated with parenting confidence (r=0.21, P<0.05). The stepwise multiple regression analysis showed that parity and needs in psychosocial support predict parenting confidence of 13.8% variance. Conclusion The findings of this study help care providers to identify parents with low parenting confidence at an early postpartum stage. Health care teams should provide appropriate psychosocial

  8. Balance Function Disorders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Researchers at the Balance Function Laboratory and Clinic at the Minneapolis (MN) Neuroscience Institute on the Abbot Northwestern Hospital Campus are using a rotational chair (technically a "sinusoidal harmonic acceleration system") originally developed by NASA to investigate vestibular (inner ear) function in weightlessness to diagnose and treat patients with balance function disorders. Manufactured by ICS Medical Corporation, Schaumberg, IL, the chair system turns a patient and monitors his or her responses to rotational stimulation.

  9. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  10. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  11. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  12. Assessment of biomedical knowledge according to confidence criteria.

    PubMed

    Jilani, Ines; Grabar, Natalia; Meneton, Pierre; Jaulent, Marie-Christine

    2008-01-01

    The characterisation of biomedical knowledge taking into account the degree of confidence expressed in texts, is an important issue in the biomedical domain. The authors of scientific texts use grammatical and lexical devices to qualify their assertions. We named these markers of qualification "confidence markers". We present here the results of our efforts to collect confidence markers from full texts and abstracts, to classify them on the basis of semantics, and their use within our knowledge extraction system. We propose in this study, an implementation of these confidence markers for functional annotation of the human gene Apolipoprotein (APOE) thought to be involved in Alzheimer's disease. As a result, we obtain, through the extraction system, triplets: (G, F, PMID), in which G is the gene APOE, F is its function found in texts and the PMID of the article from which this knowledge was extracted. Moreover, a spatial 3D of the triplets, relative to each other, is proposed depending on their respective confidence degree. PMID:18487731

  13. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience—approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain—to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This “emotor” control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on “confidence.” Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  14. Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies

    PubMed Central

    Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes. PMID:27478491

  15. New graduate nurses' experiences about lack of professional confidence.

    PubMed

    Ortiz, Jennifer

    2016-07-01

    Professional confidence is an essential trait for new graduate nurses to possess in order to provide quality patient care in today's complex hospital setting. However, many new graduates are entering the workforce without it and this remains to be explored. This study describes how new graduate nurses accounted for their lack of professional confidence upon entry into professional practice and how it developed during their first year of practice in the hospital setting. Two face-to-face, individual interviews of 12 participants were utilized to capture the lived experiences of new graduate nurses to gain an understanding of this phenomenon. After manual content analysis seven themes emerged: communication is huge, making mistakes, disconnect between school and practice, independence, relationship building, positive feedback is important, and gaining experience. The findings indicate that the development of professional confidence is a dynamic process that occurs throughout the first year of practice. New graduate nurses must experience both positive and negative circumstances in order to move toward the attainment of professional confidence. Knowing this, nurse educators in academia as well as in the hospital setting may better support the development of professional confidence both before and during the first year of practice. PMID:27428687

  16. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  17. Exercise to Improve Your Balance

    MedlinePlus

    ... nia.nih.gov/Go4Life Exercise to Improve Your Balance Having good balance is important for many everyday activities, such as ... fracture of the arm, hand, ankle, or hip. Balance exercises can help you prevent falls and avoid ...

  18. Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Reeh, N.

    1984-01-01

    Mass balance equation for glaciers; areal distribution and ice volumes; estimates of actual mass balance; loss by calving of icebergs; hydrological budget for Greenland; and temporal variations of Greenland mass balance are examined.

  19. Energy Balance and Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Hill, James O.; Wyatt, Holly R.; Peters, John C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the interplay among energy intake, energy expenditure and body energy stores and illustrates how an understanding of energy balance can help develop strategies to reduce obesity. First, reducing obesity will require modifying both energy intake and energy expenditure and not simply focusing on either alone. Food restriction alone will not be effective in reducing obesity if human physiology is biased toward achieving energy balance at a high energy flux (i.e. at a high level of energy intake and expenditure). In previous environments a high energy flux was achieved with a high level of physical activity but in today's sedentary environment it is increasingly achieved through weight gain. Matching energy intake to a high level of energy expenditure will likely be more a more feasible strategy for most people to maintain a healthy weight than restricting food intake to meet a low level of energy expenditure. Second, from an energy balance point of view we are likely to be more successful in preventing excessive weight gain than in treating obesity. This is because the energy balance system shows much stronger opposition to weight loss than to weight gain. While large behavior changes are needed to produce and maintain reductions in body weight, small behavior changes may be sufficient to prevent excessive weight gain. In conclusion, the concept of energy balance combined with an understanding of how the body achieves balance may be a useful framework in helping develop strategies to reduce obesity rates. PMID:22753534

  20. Confidence region estimation techniques for nonlinear regression :three case studies.

    SciTech Connect

    Swiler, Laura Painton (Sandia National Laboratories, Albuquerque, NM); Sullivan, Sean P. (University of Texas, Austin, TX); Stucky-Mack, Nicholas J. (Harvard University, Cambridge, MA); Roberts, Randall Mark; Vugrin, Kay White

    2005-10-01

    This work focuses on different methods to generate confidence regions for nonlinear parameter identification problems. Three methods for confidence region estimation are considered: a linear approximation method, an F-test method, and a Log-Likelihood method. Each of these methods are applied to three case studies. One case study is a problem with synthetic data, and the other two case studies identify hydraulic parameters in groundwater flow problems based on experimental well-test results. The confidence regions for each case study are analyzed and compared. Although the F-test and Log-Likelihood methods result in similar regions, there are differences between these regions and the regions generated by the linear approximation method for nonlinear problems. The differing results, capabilities, and drawbacks of all three methods are discussed.

  1. Does mood influence the realism of confidence judgments?

    PubMed

    Allwood, Carl Martin; Granhag, Pär Anders; Jonsson, Anna-Carin

    2002-07-01

    Previous research has shown that mood affects cognition, but the extent to which mood affects meta-cognitive judgments is a relatively over-looked issue. In the current study we investigated how mood influences the degree of realism in participants' confidence judgments (based on an episodic memory task). Using music and film in combination, we successfully induced an elated mood in half of the participants, but failed to induce a sad mood in the other half. In line with previous research, the participants in both conditions were overconfident in their judgments. However, and contrary to our prediction, our data indicated that there was no difference in the realism of the confidence between the conditions. When relating this result to previous research, our conclusion is that there is no, or very little, influence of mood of moderate intensity on the realism of confidence judgments. PMID:12184480

  2. Confidence as a Common Currency between Vision and Audition

    PubMed Central

    de Gardelle, Vincent; Le Corre, François; Mamassian, Pascal

    2016-01-01

    The idea of a common currency underlying our choice behaviour has played an important role in sciences of behaviour, from neurobiology to psychology and economics. However, while it has been mainly investigated in terms of values, with a common scale on which goods would be evaluated and compared, the question of a common scale for subjective probabilities and confidence in particular has received only little empirical investigation so far. The present study extends previous work addressing this question, by showing that confidence can be compared across visual and auditory decisions, with the same precision as for the comparison of two trials within the same task. We discuss the possibility that confidence could serve as a common currency when describing our choices to ourselves and to others. PMID:26808061

  3. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times.

    PubMed

    Weidemann, Christoph T; Kahana, Michael J

    2016-04-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as 'old' and 'new' in tests of recognition memory or 'present' versus 'absent' in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  4. ACAP3 regulates neurite outgrowth through its GAP activity specific to Arf6 in mouse hippocampal neurons.

    PubMed

    Miura, Yuki; Hongu, Tsunaki; Yamauchi, Yohei; Funakoshi, Yuji; Katagiri, Naohiro; Ohbayashi, Norihiko; Kanaho, Yasunori

    2016-09-01

    ACAP3 (ArfGAP with coiled-coil, ankyrin repeat and pleckstrin homology domains 3) belongs to the ACAP family of GAPs (GTPase-activating proteins) for the small GTPase Arf (ADP-ribosylation factor). However, its specificity to Arf isoforms and physiological functions remain unclear. In the present study, we demonstrate that ACAP3 plays an important role in neurite outgrowth of mouse hippocampal neurons through its GAP activity specific to Arf6. In primary cultured mouse hippocampal neurons, knockdown of ACAP3 abrogated neurite outgrowth, which was rescued by ectopically expressed wild-type ACAP3, but not by its GAP activity-deficient mutant. Ectopically expressed ACAP3 in HEK (human embryonic kidney)-293T cells showed the GAP activity specific to Arf6. In support of this observation, the level of GTP-bound Arf6 was significantly increased by knockdown of ACAP3 in hippocampal neurons. In addition, knockdown and knockout of Arf6 in mouse hippocampal neurons suppressed neurite outgrowth. These results demonstrate that ACAP3 positively regulates neurite outgrowth through its GAP activity specific to Arf6. Furthermore, neurite outgrowth suppressed by ACAP3 knockdown was rescued by expression of a fast cycle mutant of Arf6 that spontaneously exchanges guanine nucleotides on Arf6, but not by that of wild-type, GTP- or GDP-locked mutant Arf6. Thus cycling between active and inactive forms of Arf6, which is precisely regulated by ACAP3 in concert with a guanine-nucleotide-exchange factor(s), seems to be required for neurite outgrowth of hippocampal neurons. PMID:27330119

  5. Watt and joule balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Ian A.

    2014-04-01

    The time is fast approaching when the SI unit of mass will cease to be based on a single material artefact and will instead be based upon the defined value of a fundamental constant—the Planck constant—h . This change requires that techniques exist both to determine the appropriate value to be assigned to the constant, and to measure mass in terms of the redefined unit. It is important to ensure that these techniques are accurate and reliable to allow full advantage to be taken of the stability and universality provided by the new definition and to guarantee the continuity of the world's mass measurements, which can affect the measurement of many other quantities such as energy and force. Up to now, efforts to provide the basis for such a redefinition of the kilogram were mainly concerned with resolving the discrepancies between individual implementations of the two principal techniques: the x-ray crystal density (XRCD) method [1] and the watt and joule balance methods which are the subject of this special issue. The first three papers report results from the NRC and NIST watt balance groups and the NIM joule balance group. The result from the NRC (formerly the NPL Mk II) watt balance is the first to be reported with a relative standard uncertainty below 2 × 10-8 and the NIST result has a relative standard uncertainty below 5 × 10-8. Both results are shown in figure 1 along with some previous results; the result from the NIM group is not shown on the plot but has a relative uncertainty of 8.9 × 10-6 and is consistent with all the results shown. The Consultative Committee for Mass and Related Quantities (CCM) in its meeting in 2013 produced a resolution [2] which set out the requirements for the number, type and quality of results intended to support the redefinition of the kilogram and required that there should be agreement between them. These results from NRC, NIST and the IAC may be considered to meet these requirements and are likely to be widely debated

  6. Fast and Accurate Construction of Confidence Intervals for Heritability.

    PubMed

    Schweiger, Regev; Kaufman, Shachar; Laaksonen, Reijo; Kleber, Marcus E; März, Winfried; Eskin, Eleazar; Rosset, Saharon; Halperin, Eran

    2016-06-01

    Estimation of heritability is fundamental in genetic studies. Recently, heritability estimation using linear mixed models (LMMs) has gained popularity because these estimates can be obtained from unrelated individuals collected in genome-wide association studies. Typically, heritability estimation under LMMs uses the restricted maximum likelihood (REML) approach. Existing methods for the construction of confidence intervals and estimators of SEs for REML rely on asymptotic properties. However, these assumptions are often violated because of the bounded parameter space, statistical dependencies, and limited sample size, leading to biased estimates and inflated or deflated confidence intervals. Here, we show that the estimation of confidence intervals by state-of-the-art methods is inaccurate, especially when the true heritability is relatively low or relatively high. We further show that these inaccuracies occur in datasets including thousands of individuals. Such biases are present, for example, in estimates of heritability of gene expression in the Genotype-Tissue Expression project and of lipid profiles in the Ludwigshafen Risk and Cardiovascular Health study. We also show that often the probability that the genetic component is estimated as 0 is high even when the true heritability is bounded away from 0, emphasizing the need for accurate confidence intervals. We propose a computationally efficient method, ALBI (accurate LMM-based heritability bootstrap confidence intervals), for estimating the distribution of the heritability estimator and for constructing accurate confidence intervals. Our method can be used as an add-on to existing methods for estimating heritability and variance components, such as GCTA, FaST-LMM, GEMMA, or EMMAX. PMID:27259052

  7. Sparse Multidimensional Patient Modeling using Auxiliary Confidence Labels

    PubMed Central

    Heim, Eric; Hauskrecht, Milos

    2016-01-01

    In this work, we focus on the problem of learning a classification model that performs inference on patient Electronic Health Records (EHRs). Often, a large amount of costly expert supervision is required to learn such a model. To reduce this cost, we obtain confidence labels that indicate how sure an expert is in the class labels she provides. If meaningful confidence information can be incorporated into a learning method, fewer patient instances may need to be labeled to learn an accurate model. In addition, while accuracy of predictions is important for any inference model, a model of patients must be interpretable so that clinicians can understand how the model is making decisions. To these ends, we develop a novel metric learning method called Confidence bAsed MEtric Learning (CAMEL) that supports inclusion of confidence labels, but also emphasizes interpretability in three ways. First, our method induces sparsity, thus producing simple models that use only a few features from patient EHRs. Second, CAMEL naturally produces confidence scores that can be taken into consideration when clinicians make treatment decisions. Third, the metrics learned by CAMEL induce multidimensional spaces where each dimension represents a different “factor” that clinicians can use to assess patients. In our experimental evaluation, we show on a real-world clinical data set that our CAMEL methods are able to learn models that are as or more accurate as other methods that use the same supervision. Furthermore, we show that when CAMEL uses confidence scores it is able to learn models as or more accurate as others we tested while using only 10% of the training instances. Finally, we perform qualitative assessments on the metrics learned by CAMEL and show that they identify and clearly articulate important factors in how the model performs inference. PMID:26949568

  8. Confidence intervals for concentration and brightness from fluorescence fluctuation measurements.

    PubMed

    Pryse, Kenneth M; Rong, Xi; Whisler, Jordan A; McConnaughey, William B; Jiang, Yan-Fei; Melnykov, Artem V; Elson, Elliot L; Genin, Guy M

    2012-09-01

    The theory of photon count histogram (PCH) analysis describes the distribution of fluorescence fluctuation amplitudes due to populations of fluorophores diffusing through a focused laser beam and provides a rigorous framework through which the brightnesses and concentrations of the fluorophores can be determined. In practice, however, the brightnesses and concentrations of only a few components can be identified. Brightnesses and concentrations are determined by a nonlinear least-squares fit of a theoretical model to the experimental PCH derived from a record of fluorescence intensity fluctuations. The χ(2) hypersurface in the neighborhood of the optimum parameter set can have varying degrees of curvature, due to the intrinsic curvature of the model, the specific parameter values of the system under study, and the relative noise in the data. Because of this varying curvature, parameters estimated from the least-squares analysis have varying degrees of uncertainty associated with them. There are several methods for assigning confidence intervals to the parameters, but these methods have different efficacies for PCH data. Here, we evaluate several approaches to confidence interval estimation for PCH data, including asymptotic standard error, likelihood joint-confidence region, likelihood confidence intervals, skew-corrected and accelerated bootstrap (BCa), and Monte Carlo residual resampling methods. We study these with a model two-dimensional membrane system for simplicity, but the principles are applicable as well to fluorophores diffusing in three-dimensional solution. Using simulated fluorescence fluctuation data, we find the BCa method to be particularly well-suited for estimating confidence intervals in PCH analysis, and several other methods to be less so. Using the BCa method and additional simulated fluctuation data, we find that confidence intervals can be reduced dramatically for a specific non-Gaussian beam profile. PMID:23009839

  9. Calibrated Peer Review Essays Increase Confidence in Self-assessment

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Likkel, Lauren

    2006-12-01

    We studied the effect of the web-based tool “Calibrated Peer Review” ™ on student confidence in their ability to recognize the quality of their own work. CPR can be used in large enrollment classes to allow a controlled peer review of moderate length student essays. We expected that teaching students how to grade an essay and having them grade their own work would increase confidence in assessing the quality of their own essays, and the results support this. Three introductory astronomy classes participated in this study during 2005 at the University of Wisconsin Eau Claire, a four year university. Four essays were assigned in both the experimental class (104 students) and the control classes (34 students). In the comparison classes, the student was given a score on the essay and perhaps a few written comments. The experimental group used the CPR tool, in which they are taught how to evaluate the essay, evaluate assignments written by peers, and evaluate their own essay. Three survey questions were used to characterize the change in confidence level in ability to assess their own work. The survey results from a survey at the end of the semester were compared to results from the same survey administered at the beginning of the semester. A measurable effect on the average confidence level of the experimental class was found. By the final survey, significantly more of the CPR students had changed to a more positive statement in indicating their confidence in evaluating their own written work. There was no effect seen on the classes that wrote essays but did not use the CPR system, showing that this result is due to using the CPR system for the essays, not just writing essays or becoming more confident during the course of the semester.

  10. Including "evidentiary balance" in news media coverage of vaccine risk.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Christopher E; Dixon, Graham N; Holton, Avery; McKeever, Brooke Weberling

    2015-01-01

    Journalists communicating risk-related uncertainty must accurately convey scientific evidence supporting particular conclusions. Scholars have explored how "balanced" coverage of opposing risk claims shapes uncertainty judgments. In situations where a preponderance of evidence points to a particular conclusion, balanced coverage reduces confidence in such a consensus and heightens uncertainty about whether a risk exists. Using the autism-vaccine controversy as a case study, we describe how journalists can cover multiple sides of an issue and provide insight into where the strength of evidence lies by focusing on "evidentiary balance." Our results suggest that evidentiary balance shapes perceived certainty that vaccines are safe, effective, and not linked to autism through the mediating role of a perception that scientists are divided about whether a link exists. Deference toward science, moreover, moderates these relationships under certain conditions. We discuss implications for journalism practice and risk communication. PMID:25010352

  11. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  12. Comparison of confidence procedures for type I censored exponential lifetimes.

    PubMed

    Sundberg, R

    2001-12-01

    In the model of type I censored exponential lifetimes, coverage probabilities are compared for a number of confidence interval constructions proposed in literature. The coverage probabilities are calculated exactly for sample sizes up to 50 and for different degrees of censoring and different degrees of intended confidence. If not only a fair two-sided coverage is desired, but also fair one-sided coverages, only few methods are quite satisfactory. A likelihood-based interval and a third root transformation to normality work almost perfectly, but the chi 2-based method that is perfect under no censoring and under type II censoring can also be advocated. PMID:11763546

  13. Cavendish Balance Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Bryan

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report for a project carried out to modify a manual commercial Cavendish Balance for automated use in cryostat. The scope of this project was to modify an off-the-shelf manually operated Cavendish Balance to allow for automated operation for periods of hours or days in cryostat. The purpose of this modification was to allow the balance to be used in the study of effects of superconducting materials on the local gravitational field strength to determine if the strength of gravitational fields can be reduced. A Cavendish Balance was chosen because it is a fairly simple piece of equipment for measuring gravity, one the least accurately known and least understood physical constants. The principle activities that occurred under this purchase order were: (1) All the components necessary to hold and automate the Cavendish Balance in a cryostat were designed. Engineering drawings were made of custom parts to be fabricated, other off-the-shelf parts were procured; (2) Software was written in LabView to control the automation process via a stepper motor controller and stepper motor, and to collect data from the balance during testing; (3)Software was written to take the data collected from the Cavendish Balance and reduce it to give a value for the gravitational constant; (4) The components of the system were assembled and fitted to a cryostat. Also the LabView hardware including the control computer, stepper motor driver, data collection boards, and necessary cabling were assembled; and (5) The system was operated for a number of periods, data collected, and reduced to give an average value for the gravitational constant.

  14. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease phenotypes and balance impairment

    PubMed Central

    Voica, Alina Sorina; Oancea, Cristian; Tudorache, Emanuela; Crisan, Alexandru F; Fira-Mladinescu, Ovidiu; Tudorache, Voicu; Timar, Bogdan

    2016-01-01

    Background/objective Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a respiratory disease that results in airflow limitation and respiratory distress, also having many nonrespiratory manifestations that affect both function and mobility. Preliminary evidence suggests that balance deficits constitute an important secondary impairment in individuals with COPD. Our objective was to investigate balance performance in two groups of COPD patients with different body compositions and to observe which of these groups are more likely to experience falls in the future. Methods We included 27 stable COPD patients and 17 healthy individuals who performed a series of balance tests. The COPD patients were divided in two groups: emphysematous and bronchitic. Patients completed the activities balance confidence scale and the COPD assessment test questionnaire and afterward performed the Berg Balance Scale, timed up and go, single leg stance and 6-minute walking distance test. We analyzed the differences in the balance tests between the studied groups. Results Bronchitic COPD was associated with a decreased value when compared to emphysematous COPD for the following variables: single leg stance (8.7 vs 15.6; P<0.001) and activities balance confidence (53.2 vs 74.2; P=0.001). Bronchitic COPD patients had a significantly higher value of timed up and go test compared to patients with emphysematous COPD (14.7 vs 12.8; P=0.001). Conclusion Patients with COPD have a higher balance impairment than their healthy peers. Moreover, we observed that the bronchitic COPD phenotype is more likely to experience falls compared to the emphysematous phenotype. PMID:27199555

  15. Automatic force balance calibration system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferris, Alice T. (Inventor)

    1996-01-01

    A system for automatically calibrating force balances is provided. The invention uses a reference balance aligned with the balance being calibrated to provide superior accuracy while minimizing the time required to complete the calibration. The reference balance and the test balance are rigidly attached together with closely aligned moment centers. Loads placed on the system equally effect each balance, and the differences in the readings of the two balances can be used to generate the calibration matrix for the test balance. Since the accuracy of the test calibration is determined by the accuracy of the reference balance and current technology allows for reference balances to be calibrated to within .+-.0.05%, the entire system has an accuracy of a .+-.0.2%. The entire apparatus is relatively small and can be mounted on a movable base for easy transport between test locations. The system can also accept a wide variety of reference balances, thus allowing calibration under diverse load and size requirements.

  16. Automatic force balance calibration system

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ferris, Alice T.

    1995-05-01

    A system for automatically calibrating force balances is provided. The invention uses a reference balance aligned with the balance being calibrated to provide superior accuracy while minimizing the time required to complete the calibration. The reference balance and the test balance are rigidly attached together with closely aligned moment centers. Loads placed on the system equally effect each balance, and the differences in the readings of the two balances can be used to generate the calibration matrix for the test balance. Since the accuracy of the test calibration is determined by the accuracy of the reference balance and current technology allows for reference balances to be calibrated to within +/-0.05% the entire system has an accuracy of +/-0.2%. The entire apparatus is relatively small and can be mounted on a movable base for easy transport between test locations. The system can also accept a wide variety of reference balances, thus allowing calibration under diverse load and size requirements.

  17. Identifying Dynamically Induced Variability in Glacier Mass-Balance Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christian, J. E.; Siler, N.; Koutnik, M. R.; Roe, G.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier mass-balance (i.e., accumulation vs. ablation) provides a direct indicator of a glacier's relationship with climate. However, mass-balance records contain noise due to internal climate variability (i.e., from stochastic fluctuations in large-scale atmospheric circulation), which can obscure or bias trends in these relatively short timeseries. This presents a challenge in correctly identifying the signature of anthropogenic change. "Dynamical adjustment" is a technique that identifies patterns of variance shared between a climate timeseries of interest (e.g., mass-balance) and independent "predictor" variables associated with large-scale circulation (e.g., Sea Level Pressure, SLP, or Sea Surface Temperature, SST). Extracting the component of variance due to internal variability leaves a residual timeseries for which trends can more confidently be attributed to external forcing. We apply dynamical adjustments based on Partial Least Squares Regression to mass-balance records from South Cascade Glacier in Washington State and Wolverine and Gulkana Glaciers in Alaska, independently analyzing seasonal balance records to assess the dynamical influences on winter accumulation and summer ablation. Seasonally averaged North Pacific SLP and SST fields perform comparably as predictor variables, explaining 50-60% of the variance in winter balance and 30-40% of variance in summer balance for South Cascade and Wolverine Glaciers. Gulkana glacier, located further inland than the other two glaciers, is less closely linked to North Pacific climate variability, with the predictors explaining roughly one-third of variance in its winter and summer balance. We analyze the significance of linear trends in the raw and adjusted mass-balance records, and find that for all three glaciers, a) summer balance shows a statistically significant downward trend that is not substantially altered when dynamically induced variability is removed, and b) winter balance shows no statistically

  18. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-01

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence. PMID:27151640

  19. A Wii Bit of Fun: A Novel Platform to Deliver Effective Balance Training to Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Merriman, Niamh A.; Young, William R.; Newell, Fiona N.; Craig, Cathy

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: Falls and fall-related injuries are symptomatic of an aging population. This study aimed to design, develop, and deliver a novel method of balance training, using an interactive game-based system to promote engagement, with the inclusion of older adults at both high and low risk of experiencing a fall. Study Design: Eighty-two older adults (65 years of age and older) were recruited from sheltered accommodation and local activity groups. Forty volunteers were randomly selected and received 5 weeks of balance game training (5 males, 35 females; mean, 77.18 ± 6.59 years), whereas the remaining control participants recorded levels of physical activity (20 males, 22 females; mean, 76.62 ± 7.28 years). The effect of balance game training was measured on levels of functional balance and balance confidence in individuals with and without quantifiable balance impairments. Results: Balance game training had a significant effect on levels of functional balance and balance confidence (P < 0.05). This was further demonstrated in participants who were deemed at high risk of falls. The overall pattern of results suggests the training program is effective and suitable for individuals at all levels of ability and may therefore play a role in reducing the risk of falls. Conclusions: Commercial hardware can be modified to deliver engaging methods of effective balance assessment and training for the older population. PMID:26469308

  20. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  1. Technology in Teaching: Just How Confident Are Preservice Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Molebash, Philip; Milman, Natalie

    This paper examines the effectiveness of increasing the confidence of preservice teachers in using technology for personal and instructional purposes as a result of participating in an introductory educational technology course offered at the University of Virginia's Curry School of Education. Course participants attended sections designed for…

  2. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  3. Finite sampling corrected 3D noise with confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Haefner, David P; Burks, Stephen D

    2015-05-20

    When evaluated with a spatially uniform irradiance, an imaging sensor exhibits both spatial and temporal variations, which can be described as a three-dimensional (3D) random process considered as noise. In the 1990s, NVESD engineers developed an approximation to the 3D power spectral density for noise in imaging systems known as 3D noise. The goal was to decompose the 3D noise process into spatial and temporal components identify potential sources of origin. To characterize a sensor in terms of its 3D noise values, a finite number of samples in each of the three dimensions (two spatial, one temporal) were performed. In this correspondence, we developed the full sampling corrected 3D noise measurement and the corresponding confidence bounds. The accuracy of these methods was demonstrated through Monte Carlo simulations. Both the sampling correction as well as the confidence intervals can be applied a posteriori to the classic 3D noise calculation. The Matlab functions associated with this work can be found on the Mathworks file exchange ["Finite sampling corrected 3D noise with confidence intervals," https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/49657-finite-sampling-corrected-3d-noise-with-confidence-intervals.]. PMID:26192530

  4. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  5. Knowledge and Confidence of Speech-Language Pathologists Regarding Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Julie M.

    2010-01-01

    The increased prevalence rate of autism has immense implications for speech language pathologists (SLPs) who are directly involved in the education and service delivery for students with autism. However, few studies have documented the effectiveness of the knowledge and confidence of SLPs regarding autism. The purpose of this study was to measure…

  6. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  7. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    PubMed Central

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  8. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  9. Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belia, Sarah; Fidler, Fiona; Williams, Jennifer; Cumming, Geoff

    2005-01-01

    Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p…

  10. Analyzing Student Confidence in Classroom Voting with Multiple Choice Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ann; Storm, Christopher; VonEpps, Lahna

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present results of a recent study in which students voted on multiple choice questions in mathematics courses of varying levels. Students used clickers to select the best answer among the choices given; in addition, they were also asked whether they were confident in their answer. In this paper we analyze data…

  11. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  12. Expanding Horizons--Into the Future with Confidence!

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Volk, Valerie

    2006-01-01

    Gifted students often show a deep interest in and profound concern for the complex issues of society. Given the leadership potential of these students and their likely responsibility for solving future social problems, they need to develop this awareness and also a sense of confidence in dealing with future issues. The Future Problem Solving…

  13. Using Online EFL Interaction to Increase Confidence, Motivation, and Ability

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wu, Wen-chi Vivian; Yen, Ling Ling; Marek, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Teachers of English as a Foreign Language (EFL) in Taiwan often use an outdated lecture-memorization methodology resulting in low motivation, confidence, and ability on the part of students. Innovative educators are exploring use of technology, such as videoconferences with native speakers, to enrich the classroom; however few guidelines have been…

  14. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  15. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  16. Multiple Confidence Estimates as Indices of Eyewitness Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauer, James D.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated.…

  17. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  18. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  19. Confidence and Preparedness to Teach: Conflicting Perspectives from Multiple Stakeholders

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Carter, Pamala J.; Cowan, Kay W.

    2013-01-01

    This article, "Confidence and Preparedness to Teach" is a quantitative study that examines the level of preparedness for the classroom of fifty-seven student teachers. The student teachers, their cooperating teachers, and the professor-in-residence who monitored the placement completed a twenty-four item survey that rated the prospective…

  20. "The Confidence-Man" and Jobs beyond Academe.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Mark

    1999-01-01

    Notes that the hopeful threads binding Herman Melville's book "The Confidence-Man" also weave a valuable lesson for literature PhDs considering their career options. Suggests that the values crucial to a teacher or scholar are also crucial to those who work outside the university: willingness to entertain other points of view and an ability to…

  1. Knowledge Surveys in General Chemistry: Confidence, Overconfidence, and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Priscilla; Volckmann, David

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge surveys have been used in a number of fields to assess changes in students' understanding of their own learning and to assist students in review. This study compares metacognitive confidence ratings of students faced with problems on the surveys with their actual knowledge as shown on the final exams in two courses of general chemistry…

  2. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  3. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  4. Confidence Interval Coverage for Cohen's Effect Size Statistic

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Keselman, H. J.; Penfield, Randall D.

    2006-01-01

    Kelley compared three methods for setting a confidence interval (CI) around Cohen's standardized mean difference statistic: the noncentral-"t"-based, percentile (PERC) bootstrap, and biased-corrected and accelerated (BCA) bootstrap methods under three conditions of nonnormality, eight cases of sample size, and six cases of population effect size…

  5. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  6. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  7. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  8. Building Confident Teachers: Preservice Physical Education Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hand, Karen E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding teachers' perceptions of their abilities across a variety of teaching strategies can provide insight for understanding teaching effectiveness and program review. Teaching efficacy reflects the degrees of confidence individuals have in their ability to successfully perform specific teaching proficiencies (Bandura, 1986). Additional…

  9. Building and Encouraging Confidence and Creativity in Science.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ryan, Lynnette J.

    The focus of this study is an eight-week science enrichment mentorship program for elementary and middle school girls (ages 8 to 13) at Coleson Village, a public housing community, in an urban area of western Washington. The goal of the program was to build confidence and encourage creativity as the participants discovered themselves as competent…

  10. Acceptance and confidence of central and peripheral misinformation.

    PubMed

    Luna, Karlos; Migueles, Malen

    2009-11-01

    We examined the memory for central and peripheral information concerning a crime and the acceptance of false information. We also studied eyewitnesses' confidence in their memory. Participants were shown a video depicting a bank robbery and a questionnaire was used to introduce false central and peripheral information. The next day the participants completed a recognition task in which they rated the confidence of their responses. Performance was better for central information and participants registered more false alarms for peripheral contents. The cognitive system's limited attentional capacity and the greater information capacity of central elements may facilitate processing the more important information. The presentation of misinformation seriously impaired eyewitness memory by prompting a more lenient response criterion. Participants were more confident with central than with peripheral information. Eyewitness memory is easily distorted in peripheral aspects but it is more difficult to make mistakes with central information. However, when false information is introduced, errors in central information can be accompanied by high confidence, thus rendering them credible and legally serious. PMID:19899643

  11. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  12. Utility of de-escalatory confidence-building measures

    SciTech Connect

    Nation, J.

    1989-06-01

    This paper evaluates the utility of specific confidence-building de-escalatory measures and pays special attention to the evaluation of measures which place restrictions on or establish procedures for strategic forces. Some measures appear more promising than others. Potentially useful confidence-building measures largely satisfy defined criteria and include the phased return of strategic nuclear forces to peacetime bases and operations, the termination of interference with communications and NTMs (National Technical Means) and the termination of civil defense preparations. Less-promising CBMs include the standing down of supplemental early warning systems, the establishment of SSBN keep-out zones, and decreases in bomber alert rates. Establishment of SSBN keep-out zones and reduction in bomber rates are difficult to verify, while the standing-down of early warning systems provides little benefit at potentially large costs. Particular confidence-building measures (CBMs) may be most useful in building superpower confidence at specific points in the crisis termination phase. For example, a decrease in strategic bomber alert rates may provide some decrease in perception of the likelihood of war, but its potential costs, particularly in increasing bomber vulnerability, may limit its utility and implementation to the final crisis stages when the risks of re-escalation and surprise attack are lower.

  13. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  14. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  15. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  16. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  17. 37 CFR 1.14 - Patent applications preserved in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-07-01

    ... 37 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Patent applications preserved in confidence. 1.14 Section 1.14 Patents, Trademarks, and Copyrights UNITED STATES PATENT AND TRADEMARK OFFICE, DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE GENERAL RULES OF PRACTICE IN PATENT CASES General...

  18. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  19. Confidence in Teaching Mathematics among Malaysian Pre-Service Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yunus, Aida Suraya Md.; Hamzah, Ramlah; Ismail, Habsah; Husain, Sharifah Kartini Said; Ismail, Mat Rofa

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on the confidence level of mathematics education students in teaching school mathematics. Respondents were 165 final year students from four Malaysian universities. It was found that the respondents showed a strong foundation in mathematics upon entrance to the university. In spite of their strong background in school…

  20. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  1. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  2. Confidence Intervals and Replication: Where Will the Next Mean Fall?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cumming, Geoff; Maillardet, Robert

    2006-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) give information about replication, but many researchers have misconceptions about this information. One problem is that the percentage of future replication means captured by a particular CI varies markedly, depending on where in relation to the population mean that CI falls. The authors investigated the distribution of…

  3. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  4. The cryogenic balance design and balance calibration methods

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ewald, B.; Polanski, L.; Graewe, E.

    1992-07-01

    The current status of a program aimed at the development of a cryogenic balance for the European Transonic Wind Tunnel is reviewed. In particular, attention is given to the cryogenic balance design philosophy, mechanical balance design, reliability and accuracy, cryogenic balance calibration concept, and the concept of an automatic calibration machine. It is shown that the use of the automatic calibration machine will improve the accuracy of calibration while reducing the man power and time required for balance calibration.

  5. Extraordinary hall balance

    PubMed Central

    Zhang, S. L.; Liu, Y.; Collins-McIntyre, L. J.; Hesjedal, T.; Zhang, J. Y.; Wang, S. G.; Yu, G. H.

    2013-01-01

    Magnetoresistance (MR) effects are at the heart of modern information technology. However, future progress of giant and tunnelling MR based storage and logic devices is limited by the usable MR ratios of currently about 200% at room-temperature. Colossal MR structures, on the other hand, achieve their high MR ratios of up to 106% only at low temperatures and high magnetic fields. We introduce the extraordinary Hall balance (EHB) and demonstrate room-temperature MR ratios in excess of 31,000%. The new device concept exploits the extraordinary Hall effect in two separated ferromagnetic layers with perpendicular anisotropy in which the Hall voltages can be configured to be carefully balanced or tipped out of balance. Reprogrammable logic and memory is realised using a single EHB element. PACS numbers: 85.75.Nn,85.70.Kh,72.15.Gd,75.60.Ej. PMID:23804036

  6. Vibration balanced miniature loudspeaker

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schafer, David E.; Jiles, Mekell; Miller, Thomas E.; Thompson, Stephen C.

    2002-11-01

    The vibration that is generated by the receiver (loudspeaker) in a hearing aid can be a cause of feedback oscillation. Oscillation can occur if the microphone senses the receiver vibration at sufficient amplitude and appropriate phase. Feedback oscillation from this and other causes is a major problem for those who manufacture, prescribe, and use hearing aids. The receivers normally used in hearing aids are of the balanced armature-type that has a significant moving mass. The reaction force from this moving mass is the source of the vibration. A modification of the balanced armature transducer has been developed that balances the vibration of its internal parts in a way that significantly reduces the vibration force transmitted outside of the receiver case. This transducer design concept, and some of its early prototype test data will be shown. The data indicate that it should be possible to manufacture transducers that generate less vibration than equivalent present models by 15-30 dB.

  7. Confidence in facial emotion recognition in borderline personality disorder.

    PubMed

    Thome, Janine; Liebke, Lisa; Bungert, Melanie; Schmahl, Christian; Domes, Gregor; Bohus, Martin; Lis, Stefanie

    2016-04-01

    Dysfunctions of social-cognitive processes such as the recognition of emotions have been discussed to contribute to the severe impairments of interpersonal functioning in borderline personality disorder (BPD). By investigating how patients with BPD experience the intensity of different emotions in a facial expression and how confident they are in their own judgments, the current study aimed at identifying subtle alterations of emotion processing in BPD. Female patients with BPD (N = 36) and 36 healthy controls were presented with faces that displayed low-intense anger and happiness or ambiguous expressions of anger and happiness blends. Subjects were asked to rate (a) the intensity of anger and happiness in each facial expression and (b) their confidence in their judgments. Patients with BPD rated the intensity of happiness in happy faces lower than did controls, but did not differ in regard to the assessment of angry or ambiguous facial stimuli or the rating of anger. They reported lower confidence in their judgments, which was particularly pronounced for the assessment of happy facial expressions. The reduced rating of happiness was linked to higher state anger, whereas the reduced confidence in the assessment of happy faces was related to stronger feelings of loneliness and the expectation of social rejection. Our findings suggest alterations in the processing of positive social stimuli that affect both the experience of the emotional intensity and the confidence subjects experience during their assessment. The link to loneliness and social rejection sensitivity points to the necessity to target these alterations in psychotherapeutical interventions. (PsycINFO Database Record PMID:26389624

  8. Improving maternal confidence in neonatal care through a checklist intervention

    PubMed Central

    Radenkovic, Dina; Kotecha, Shrinal; Patel, Shreena; Lakhani, Anjali; Reimann-Dubbers, Katharina; Shah, Shreya; Jafree, Daniyal; Mitrasinovic, Stefan; Whitten, Melissa

    2016-01-01

    Previous qualitative studies suggest a lack of maternal confidence in care of their newborn child upon discharge into the community. This observation was supported by discussion with healthcare professionals and mothers at University College London Hospital (UCLH), highlighting specific areas of concern, in particular identifying and managing common neonatal presentations. The aim of this study was to design and introduce a checklist, addressing concerns, to increase maternal confidence in care of their newborn child. Based on market research, an 8-question checklist was designed, assessing maternal confidence in: feeding, jaundice, nappy care, rashes and dry skin, umbilical cord care, choking, bowel movements, and vomiting. Mothers were assessed as per the checklist, and received a score representative of their confidence in neonatal care. Mothers were followed up with a telephone call, and were assessed after a 7-day-period. Checklist scores before as compared to after the follow-up period were analysed. This process was repeated for three study cycles, with the placement of information posters on the ward prior to the second study cycle, and the stapling of the checklist to the mother's personal child health record (PCHR) prior to the third study cycle. A total of 99 mothers on the Maternity Care Unit at UCLH were enrolled in the study, and 92 were contactable after a 7-day period. During all study cycles, a significant increase in median checklist score was observed after, as compared to before, the 7-day follow up period (p < 0.001). The median difference in checklist score from baseline was greatest for the third cycle. These results suggest that introduction of a simple checklist can be successfully utilised to improve confidence of mothers in being able to care for their newborn child. Further investigation is indicated, but this intervention has the potential for routine application in postnatal care. PMID:27335642

  9. Confidence in one's social beliefs: implications for belief justification.

    PubMed

    Koriat, Asher; Adiv, Shiri

    2012-12-01

    Philosophers commonly define knowledge as justified true beliefs. A heated debate exists, however, about what makes a belief justified. In this article, we examine the question of belief justification from a psychological perspective, focusing on the subjective confidence in a belief that the person has just formed. Participants decided whether to accept or reject a proposition depicting a social belief, and indicated their confidence in their choice. The task was repeated six times, and choice latency was measured. The results were analyzed within a Self-Consistency Model (SCM) of subjective confidence. According to SCM, the decision to accept or reject a proposition is based on the on-line sampling of representations from a pool of representations associated with the proposition. Respondents behave like intuitive statisticians who infer the central tendency of a population based on a small sample. Confidence depends on the consistency with which the belief was supported across the sampled representations, and reflects the likelihood that a new sample will yield the same decision. The results supported the assumption of a commonly shared population of representations associated with each proposition. Based on this assumption, analyses of within-person consistency and cross-person consensus provided support for the model. As expected, choices that deviated from the person's own modal judgment or from the consensually held judgment took relatively longer to form and were associated with relatively lower confidence, presumably because they were based on non-representative samples. The results were discussed in relation to major epistemological theories--foundationalism, coherentism and reliabilism. PMID:22995400

  10. Inferring high-confidence human protein-protein interactions

    PubMed Central

    2012-01-01

    Background As numerous experimental factors drive the acquisition, identification, and interpretation of protein-protein interactions (PPIs), aggregated assemblies of human PPI data invariably contain experiment-dependent noise. Ascertaining the reliability of PPIs collected from these diverse studies and scoring them to infer high-confidence networks is a non-trivial task. Moreover, a large number of PPIs share the same number of reported occurrences, making it impossible to distinguish the reliability of these PPIs and rank-order them. For example, for the data analyzed here, we found that the majority (>83%) of currently available human PPIs have been reported only once. Results In this work, we proposed an unsupervised statistical approach to score a set of diverse, experimentally identified PPIs from nine primary databases to create subsets of high-confidence human PPI networks. We evaluated this ranking method by comparing it with other methods and assessing their ability to retrieve protein associations from a number of diverse and independent reference sets. These reference sets contain known biological data that are either directly or indirectly linked to interactions between proteins. We quantified the average effect of using ranked protein interaction data to retrieve this information and showed that, when compared to randomly ranked interaction data sets, the proposed method created a larger enrichment (~134%) than either ranking based on the hypergeometric test (~109%) or occurrence ranking (~46%). Conclusions From our evaluations, it was clear that ranked interactions were always of value because higher-ranked PPIs had a higher likelihood of retrieving high-confidence experimental data. Reducing the noise inherent in aggregated experimental PPIs via our ranking scheme further increased the accuracy and enrichment of PPIs derived from a number of biologically relevant data sets. These results suggest that using our high-confidence protein interactions

  11. Challenge to Increase Confidence in Geological Evolution Models

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mizuno, T.; Iwatsuki, T.; Saegusa, H.; Kato, T.; Matsuoka, T.; Yasue, K.; Ohyama, T.; Sasao, E.

    2014-12-01

    The geological evolution models (GEMs) as well as site descriptive models (SDMs) are used to integrate investigation results and to support safety assessment. Even more, enhancing confidence in long-term stability of geological environment is required for geological disposal in Japan where is in active tectonic region. The aim of the study is to provide future direction for increasing GEMs confidence based on review of current GEMs. GEMs has been constructed in following three steps; 1) Features, Events and Processes (FEP) analysis, 2) Scenario development and 3) Numerical modeling. Base on the current status, we looked at the issues for developing GEMs with higher level of confidence. As the result, development of techniques and methodologies for; 1) validation of GEMs, 2) handling uncertainty and 3) digitalization/visualization are identified as open issues. To solve these issues, we specified three approaches. First approach is using multiple lines of evidence. Consistency between various study fields will be important information for validation of the GEMs. Second one is revealing the argument behind GEMs. Confidence/uncertainty of GEMs will be able to be confirmed by synthesizing the basic information behind the GEMs because GEMs are built on many evidences, hypothesis and assumptions. In addition, the optional cases will be needed for demonstrating the level of understanding. Third is development of elemental technology, such as the integrated system between numerical simulation and visualization which can take into account large size of model and composite phenomenon. In the future, we will focus on increasing GEMs confidence in keeping with this notion. This study was carried out under a contract with METI (Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry) as part of its R&D supporting program for developing geological disposal technology.

  12. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    PubMed Central

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  13. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    SciTech Connect

    Hendrickson, B.; Leland, R.

    1993-01-01

    We describe an algorithm for the static load balancing of scientific computations that generalizes and improves upon spectral bisection. Through a novel use of multiple eigenvectors, our new spectral algorithm can divide a computation into 4 or 8 pieces at once. These multidimensional spectral partitioning algorithms generate balanced partitions that have lower communication overhead and are less expensive to compute than those produced by spectral bisection. In addition, they automatically work to minimize message contention on a hypercube or mesh architecture. These spectral partitions are further improved by a multidimensional generalization of the Kernighan-Lin graph partitioning algorithm. Results on several computational grids are given and compared with other popular methods.

  14. Rotary and Magnus balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malcolm, G. N.

    1981-01-01

    Two wind tunnel techniques for determining part of the aerodynamic information required to describe the dynamic bahavior of various types of vehicles in flight are described. Force and moment measurements are determined with a rotary-balance apparatus in a coning motion and with a Magnus balance in a high-speed spinning motion. Coning motion is pertinent to both aircraft and missiles, and spinning is important for spin stabilized missiles. Basic principles of both techniques are described, and specific examples of each type of apparatus are presented. Typical experimental results are also discussed.

  15. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  16. Lives in the Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Our Children, 1997

    1997-01-01

    Changes in the workplace that would provide flexibility for working parents are slowly developing and receiving government, business, and societal attention. A sidebar, "Mother, Professional, Volunteer: One Woman's Balancing Act," presents an account of how one woman rearranged her professional life to enable her to do full-time parenting. (SM)

  17. Maintaining an Environmental Balance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1976

    1976-01-01

    A recent conference of the National Environmental Development Association focused on the concepts of environment, energy and economy and underscored the necessity for balancing the critical needs embodied in these issues. Topics discussed included: nuclear energy and wastes, water pollution control, federal regulations, environmental technology…

  18. Balancing Chemical Equations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Savoy, L. G.

    1988-01-01

    Describes a study of students' ability to balance equations. Answers to a test on this topic were analyzed to determine the level of understanding and processes used by the students. Presented is a method to teach this skill to high school chemistry students. (CW)

  19. The Heider Balance:

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kułakowski, Krzysztof; Gawroński, Przemysław; Gronek, Piotr

    The Heider balance (HB) is investigated in a fully connected graph of N nodes. The links are described by a real symmetric array r (i, j), i, j =1, …, N. In a social group, nodes represent group members and links represent relations between them, positive (friendly) or negative (hostile). At the balanced state, r (i, j) r (j, k) r (k, i) > 0 for all the triads (i, j, k). As follows from the structure theorem of Cartwright and Harary, at this state the group is divided into two subgroups, with friendly internal relations and hostile relations between the subgroups. Here the system dynamics is proposed to be determined by a set of differential equations, ˙ r =rḑot r. The form of equations guarantees that once HB is reached, it persists. Also, for N =3 the dynamics reproduces properly the tendency of the system to the balanced state. The equations are solved numerically. Initially, r (i, j) are random numbers distributed around zero with a symmetric uniform distribution of unit width. Calculations up to N =500 show that HB is always reached. Time τ(N) to get the balanced state varies with the system size N as N-1/2. The spectrum of relations, initially narrow, gets very wide near HB. This means that the relations are strongly polarized. In our calculations, the relations are limited to a given range around zero. With this limitation, our results can be helpful in an interpretation of some statistical data.

  20. Regulation of Energy Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bray, George A.

    1985-01-01

    Explains relationships between energy intake and expenditure focusing on the cellular, chemical and neural mechanisms involved in regulation of energy balance. Information is referenced specifically to conditions of obesity. (Physicians may earn continuing education credit by completing an appended test). (ML)

  1. A Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Tamika; Mobley, Mary; Huttenlock, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    It's the season for the job hunt, whether one is looking for their first job or taking the next step along their career path. This article presents first-person accounts to see how teachers balance the rewards and challenges of working in different types of schools. Tamica Lewis, a third-grade teacher, states that faculty at her school is…

  2. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    DOEpatents

    Hendrickson, Bruce A.; Leland, Robert W.

    1996-12-24

    A method of and apparatus for graph partitioning involving the use of a plurality of eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix of the graph of the problem for which load balancing is desired. The invention is particularly useful for optimizing parallel computer processing of a problem and for minimizing total pathway lengths of integrated circuits in the design stage.

  3. Toward Balance in Translation.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Costello, Nancy A.

    A study compared translations of biblical passages into different languages in Papua New Guinea. The study looked for evidence of balance between literal and free interpretation in translation style in the gospel of Mark, which is narrative and didactic material, in 12 languages, and the mainly hortatory genre in translations of 4 epistles:…

  4. What is your savings personality? The 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey.

    PubMed

    Yakoboski, P; Ostuw, P; Hicks, J

    1998-08-01

    This Issue Brief presents the findings of the 1998 Retirement Confidence Survey (RCS). The survey tracks Americans' retirement planning and saving behavior and their confidence regarding various aspects of their retirement. It also categorizes workers and retirees into six distinct groups, based on their very different views on retirement, retirement planning, and saving. The six personality types identified in the RCS are Deniers (10 percent of the population), Strugglers (9 percent), Impulsives (20 percent), Cautious Savers (21 percent), Planners (23 percent), and Retiring Savers (17 percent). The survey shows that working Americans have become more focused on retirement; 45 percent have tried to determine how much they need to save before they retire, up from 32 percent in 1996. Americans' growing attention to their retirement has not increased their retirement income confidence. Since 1993, the portion of working Americans who are very confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably throughout retirement has consistently ranged from 20 percent to 25 percent. Sixty-three percent of Americans have begun to save for retirement. Fifty-five percent of those not saving for retirement say it is reasonably possible for them to save $20 per week (over $1,000 per year). In addition, 57 percent of workers who have begun to save say that it is reasonably possible for them to save an additional $20 per week. The findings demonstrate the continuing need for broad-based educational efforts designed to make retirement savings a priority for individuals. The good news is the evidence that education can have a real impact at the individual level. For the first time the 1998 RCS examined retirement planning, saving, and attitudes across ethnic groups (African-Americans, Hispanic-Americans, Asian-Americans, and whites). African-Americans are the least confident that they will have enough money to live comfortably in retirement. African-Americans and Hispanic

  5. Combined Use of the Canine Adenovirus-2 and DREADD-Technology to Activate Specific Neural Pathways In Vivo

    PubMed Central

    Boender, Arjen J.; de Jong, Johannes W.; Boekhoudt, Linde; Luijendijk, Mieneke C. M.; van der Plasse, Geoffrey; Adan, Roger A. H.

    2014-01-01

    We here describe a technique to transiently activate specific neural pathways in vivo. It comprises the combined use of a CRE-recombinase expressing canine adenovirus-2 (CAV-2) and an adeno-associated virus (AAV-hSyn-DIO-hM3D(Gq)-mCherry) that contains the floxed inverted sequence of the designer receptor exclusively activated by designer drugs (DREADD) hM3D(Gq)-mCherry. CAV-2 retrogradely infects projection neurons, which allowed us to specifically express hM3D(Gq)-mCherry in neurons that project from the ventral tegmental area (VTA) to the nucleus accumbens (Acb), the majority of which were dopaminergic. Activation of hM3D(Gq)-mCherry by intraperitoneal (i.p.) injections of clozapine-N-oxide (CNO) leads to increases in neuronal activity, which enabled us to specifically activate VTA to Acb projection neurons. The VTA to Acb pathway is part of the mesolimbic dopamine system and has been implicated in behavioral activation and the exertion of effort. Injections of all doses of CNO led to increases in progressive ratio (PR) performance. The effect of the lowest dose of CNO was suppressed by administration of a DRD1-antagonist, suggesting that CNO-induced increases in PR-performance are at least in part mediated by DRD1-signaling. We hereby validate the combined use of CAV-2 and DREADD-technology to activate specific neural pathways and determine consequent changes in behaviorally relevant paradigms. PMID:24736748

  6. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology.

    PubMed

    Earp, Brian D; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt "fails"-does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should "failed" replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing "failed" replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  7. An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Alleen; Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

  8. Simulator effects on cognitive skills and confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Brannan, Jane D; White, Anne; Bezanson, Judy L

    2008-11-01

    Use of a human patient simulator (HPS) as a tool for experiential learning provides a mechanism by which students can participate in clinical decision making, practice skills, and observe outcomes from clinical decisions. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of two instructional methods to teach specific nursing education content, acute myocardial infarction, on junior-level nursing students' cognitive skills and confidence. The instructional methods included an interactive approach using the HPS method, compared with traditional classroom lecture. Results of this study suggest that use of a teaching strategy involving the HPS method made a positive difference in the nursing students' ability to answer questions on a test of cognitive skills. Confidence levels were not found to be significantly enhanced by use of the HPS method. PMID:19010047

  9. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    PubMed Central

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  10. Investigation of a comprehensive confidence measure in NDE

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Banerjee, Portia; Safdarnejad, Seyed; Udpa, Lalita; Udpa, Satish

    2015-03-01

    Quantitative assessment of reliability of classification results is critical in detection and characterization of anomalies in any non-destructive evaluation (NDE) application. Particularly in automated data analysis systems, such a measure enables the system to automatically flag indications where operator intervention is required, and reduces maintenance costs and risks. Classification results are affected by inherent ambiguity of defect classes, non-discriminative features, inadequate training samples and poor data quality. Although these sources of uncertainties in classification have been studied, formulating a single measure which quantifies all of them together has not been done to date. Generally, from Bayesian point of view, the posterior probability is considered as a confidence measure. Posterior probability of occurrence of an event is representative of inter-class similarities and intra-class distance and thus, may be used as a measure of inherent ambiguity of classes and discriminative quality of features. However, estimation of posterior probability itself is affected by size of available training samples. In this paper, we develop a framework to incorporate these two major sources of classification error in a single quantity. In lieu of the simplistic assumption, we assume that parameters of the distribution of a class are random variables. We utilize bootstrap method to find empirical distribution of parameters of the class conditional densities based on which a distribution of confidence is found. Utilizing this distribution, different interpretations of the confidence measure may be provided. Analytical results show how statistical properties of the confidence distribution depend on number of training samples and quality of features. Initial results of the approach on eddy current data is presented.

  11. Gaining Confidence in Scientific Applications Through Executable Interface Contracts

    SciTech Connect

    Dahlgren, T; Bernholdt, D; McInnes, L C

    2008-06-16

    Interface contract enforcement is intended to help scientists gain confidence in software built from third-party components. Unfamiliar components present increased risk of incorrect or unanticipated usage patterns and unexpected component behavior. Executable interface contracts can address these issues but may incur unacceptable overhead. Research into techniques for performance-driven contract enforcement pursues practical solutions to adapting the level of contract enforcement to performance constraints.

  12. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C

    2007-11-07

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  13. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C; LaFreniere, D; Macintosh, B; Doyon, R

    2008-06-02

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  14. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined. PMID:25691289

  15. Statistical analysis of synaptic transmission: model discrimination and confidence limits.

    PubMed Central

    Stricker, C; Redman, S; Daley, D

    1994-01-01

    Procedures for discriminating between competing statistical models of synaptic transmission, and for providing confidence limits on the parameters of these models, have been developed. These procedures were tested against simulated data and were used to analyze the fluctuations in synaptic currents evoked in hippocampal neurones. All models were fitted to data using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a maximum likelihood criterion. Competing models were evaluated using the log-likelihood ratio (Wilks statistic). When the competing models were not nested, Monte Carlo sampling of the model used as the null hypothesis (H0) provided density functions against which H0 and the alternate model (H1) were tested. The statistic for the log-likelihood ratio was determined from the fit of H0 and H1 to these probability densities. This statistic was used to determine the significance level at which H0 could be rejected for the original data. When the competing models were nested, log-likelihood ratios and the chi 2 statistic were used to determine the confidence level for rejection. Once the model that provided the best statistical fit to the data was identified, many estimates for the model parameters were calculated by resampling the original data. Bootstrap techniques were then used to obtain the confidence limits of these parameters. PMID:7948672

  16. Metamemory in schizophrenia: retrospective confidence ratings interact with neurocognitive deficits.

    PubMed

    Eifler, Sarah; Rausch, Franziska; Schirmbeck, Frederike; Veckenstedt, Ruth; Mier, Daniela; Esslinger, Christine; Englisch, Susanne; Meyer-Lindenberg, Andreas; Kirsch, Peter; Zink, Mathias

    2015-02-28

    Prior studies with schizophrenia patients described a reduced ability to discriminate between correct and false memories in terms of confidence compared to control groups. This metamemory bias has been associated with the emergence and maintenance of delusions. The relation to neuropsychological performance and other clinical dimensions is incompletely understood. In a cross-sectional study, metamemory functioning was explored in 32 schizophrenia patients and 25 healthy controls. Metamemory was assessed using a verbal recognition task combined with retrospective confidence level ratings. Associations of metamemory performance with six neuropsychological domains (executive functioning/problem solving, speed of processing, working memory, verbal and visual learning, and attention/vigilance) and psychopathological measures were analyzed. Results revealed a significantly smaller discrepancy between confidence ratings for correct and incorrect recognitions in the patient group. Furthermore, patients showed significantly lower recognition accuracy in the metamemory task and marked deficits in all neuropsychological domains. Across all participants, metamemory performance significantly correlated with executive functioning and working memory. No associations with delusions were found. This data confirms prior findings of metamemory biases in schizophrenia. Selective neuropsychological abilities seem to be modulating factors of metamemory functioning. Longitudinal studies in at risk mental state and first-episode patients are needed to reveal causal interrelations. PMID:25530415

  17. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times

    PubMed Central

    Kahana, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as ‘old’ and ‘new’ in tests of recognition memory or ‘present’ versus ‘absent’ in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  18. Re-thinking accountability: trust versus confidence in medical practice.

    PubMed

    Checkland, K; Marshall, M; Harrison, S

    2004-04-01

    In seeking to prevent a reoccurrence of scandals such as that involving cardiac surgery in Bristol, the UK government has adopted a model of regulation that uses rules and surveillance as a way of both improving the quality of care delivered and increasing confidence in healthcare institutions. However, this approach may actually act to reduce confidence and trust while also reducing the moral motivation of practitioners. Accountability in health care is discussed, and it is suggested that openness about the difficult dilemmas that arise when practitioners have a duty to be accountable to more than one audience may be an alternative means of restoring trust. A greater emphasis on the sharing of information between individual health professionals and their patients would increase trust and would allow patients to hold their doctors to account for the quality of care they receive. Concentrating more on developing trust by the sharing of information and less on the futile search for complete confidence in systems and rules may improve the quality of care delivered while also nurturing the moral motivation of professionals upon which the delivery of high quality health care depends. PMID:15069221

  19. Multiclass microarray data classification based on confidence evaluation.

    PubMed

    Yu, H L; Gao, S; Qin, B; Zhao, J

    2012-01-01

    Microarray technology is becoming a powerful tool for clinical diagnosis, as it has potential to discover gene expression patterns that are characteristic for a particular disease. To date, this possibility has received much attention in the context of cancer research, especially in tumor classification. However, most published articles have concentrated on the development of binary classification methods while neglected ubiquitous multiclass problems. Unfortunately, only a few multiclass classification approaches have had poor predictive accuracy. In an effort to improve classification accuracy, we developed a novel multiclass microarray data classification method. First, we applied a "one versus rest-support vector machine" to classify the samples. Then the classification confidence of each testing sample was evaluated according to its distribution in feature space and some with poor confidence were extracted. Next, a novel strategy, which we named as "class priority estimation method based on centroid distance", was used to make decisions about categories for those poor confidence samples. This approach was tested on seven benchmark multiclass microarray datasets, with encouraging results, demonstrating effectiveness and feasibility. PMID:22653582

  20. A quantitative confidence signal detection model: 1. Fitting psychometric functions.

    PubMed

    Yi, Yongwoo; Merfeld, Daniel M

    2016-04-01

    Perceptual thresholds are commonly assayed in the laboratory and clinic. When precision and accuracy are required, thresholds are quantified by fitting a psychometric function to forced-choice data. The primary shortcoming of this approach is that it typically requires 100 trials or more to yield accurate (i.e., small bias) and precise (i.e., small variance) psychometric parameter estimates. We show that confidence probability judgments combined with a model of confidence can yield psychometric parameter estimates that are markedly more precise and/or markedly more efficient than conventional methods. Specifically, both human data and simulations show that including confidence probability judgments for just 20 trials can yield psychometric parameter estimates that match the precision of those obtained from 100 trials using conventional analyses. Such an efficiency advantage would be especially beneficial for tasks (e.g., taste, smell, and vestibular assays) that require more than a few seconds for each trial, but this potential benefit could accrue for many other tasks. PMID:26763777

  1. Flood frequency analysis: Confidence interval estimation by test inversion bootstrapping

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Schendel, Thomas; Thongwichian, Rossukon

    2015-09-01

    A common approach to estimate extreme flood events is the annual block maxima approach, where for each year the peak streamflow is determined and a distribution (usually the generalized extreme value distribution (GEV)) is fitted to this series of maxima. Eventually this distribution is used to estimate the return level for a defined return period. However, due to the finite sample size, the estimated return levels are associated with a range of uncertainity, usually expressed via confidence intervals. Previous publications have shown that existing bootstrapping methods for estimating the confidence intervals of the GEV yield too narrow estimates of these uncertainty ranges. Therefore, we present in this article a novel approach based on the less known test inversion bootstrapping, which we adapted especially for complex quantities like the return level. The reliability of this approach is studied and its performance is compared to other bootstrapping methods as well as the Profile Likelihood technique. It is shown that the new approach improves significantly the coverage of confidence intervals compared to other bootstrapping methods and for small sample sizes should even be favoured over the Profile Likelihood.

  2. Metacognition in human decision-making: confidence and error monitoring

    PubMed Central

    Yeung, Nick; Summerfield, Christopher

    2012-01-01

    People are capable of robust evaluations of their decisions: they are often aware of their mistakes even without explicit feedback, and report levels of confidence in their decisions that correlate with objective performance. These metacognitive abilities help people to avoid making the same mistakes twice, and to avoid overcommitting time or resources to decisions that are based on unreliable evidence. In this review, we consider progress in characterizing the neural and mechanistic basis of these related aspects of metacognition—confidence judgements and error monitoring—and identify crucial points of convergence between methods and theories in the two fields. This convergence suggests that common principles govern metacognitive judgements of confidence and accuracy; in particular, a shared reliance on post-decisional processing within the systems responsible for the initial decision. However, research in both fields has focused rather narrowly on simple, discrete decisions—reflecting the correspondingly restricted focus of current models of the decision process itself—raising doubts about the degree to which discovered principles will scale up to explain metacognitive evaluation of real-world decisions and actions that are fluid, temporally extended, and embedded in the broader context of evolving behavioural goals. PMID:22492749

  3. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  4. Medical students as EMTs: skill building, confidence and professional formation

    PubMed Central

    Kwiatkowski, Thomas; Rennie, William; Fornari, Alice; Akbar, Salaahuddin

    2014-01-01

    Objective The first course of the medical curriculum at the Hofstra North Shore-LIJ School of Medicine, From the Person to the Professional: Challenges, Privileges and Responsibilities, provides an innovative early clinical immersion. The course content specific to the Emergency Medical Technician (EMT) curriculum was developed using the New York State Emergency Medical Technician curriculum. Students gain early legitimate clinical experience and practice clinical skills as team members in the pre-hospital environment. We hypothesized this novel curriculum would increase students’ confidence in their ability to perform patient care skills and enhance students’ comfort with team-building skills early in their training. Methods Quantitative and qualitative data were collected from first-year medical students (n=97) through a survey developed to assess students’ confidence in patient care and team-building skills. The survey was completed prior to medical school, during the final week of the course, and at the end of their first year. A paired-samples t-test was conducted to compare self-ratings on 12 patient care and 12 team-building skills before and after the course, and a theme analysis was conducted to examine open-ended responses. Results Following the course, student confidence in patient care skills showed a significant increase from baseline (p<0.05) for all identified skills. Student confidence in team-building skills showed a significant increase (p<0.05) in 4 of the 12 identified skills. By the end of the first year, 84% of the first-year students reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their patient care skills, while 72% reported the EMT curriculum had ‘some impact’ to ‘great impact’ on their team-building skills. Conclusions The incorporation of EMT training early in a medical school curriculum provides students with meaningful clinical experiences that increase their self-reported level of confidence in

  5. Lunar Balance and Locomotion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paloski, William H.

    2008-01-01

    Balance control and locomotor patterns were altered in Apollo crewmembers on the lunar surface, owing, presumably, to a combination of sensory-motor adaptation during transit and lunar surface operations, decreased environmental affordances associated with the reduced gravity, and restricted joint mobility as well as altered center-of-gravity caused by the EVA pressure suits. Dr. Paloski will discuss these factors, as well as the potential human and mission impacts of falls and malcoordination during planned lunar sortie and outpost missions. Learning objectives: What are the potential impacts of postural instabilities on the lunar surface? CME question: What factors affect balance control and gait stability on the moon? Answer: Sensory-motor adaptation to the lunar environment, reduced mechanical and visual affordances, and altered biomechanics caused by the EVA suit.

  6. Seismic offset balancing

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, C.P.; Beale, P.L.

    1994-01-01

    The ability to successfully predict lithology and fluid content from reflection seismic records using AVO techniques is contingent upon accurate pre-analysis conditioning of the seismic data. However, all too often, residual amplitude effects remain after the many offset-dependent processing steps are completed. Residual amplitude effects often represent a significant error when compared to the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) response that the authors are attempting to quantify. They propose a model-based, offset-dependent amplitude balancing method that attempts to correct for these residuals and other errors due to sub-optimal processing. Seismic offset balancing attempts to quantify the relationship between the offset response of back-ground seismic reflections and corresponding theoretical predictions for average lithologic interfaces thought to cause these background reflections. It is assumed that any deviation from the theoretical response is a result of residual processing phenomenon and/or suboptimal processing, and a simple offset-dependent scaling function is designed to correct for these differences. This function can then be applied to seismic data over both prospective and nonprospective zones within an area where the theoretical values are appropriate and the seismic characteristics are consistent. A conservative application of the above procedure results in an AVO response over both gas sands and wet sands that is much closer to theoretically expected values. A case history from the Gulf of Mexico Flexure Trend is presented as an example to demonstrate the offset balancing technique.

  7. Simple Cell Balance Circuit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Steven D.; Byers, Jerry W.; Martin, James A.

    2012-01-01

    A method has been developed for continuous cell voltage balancing for rechargeable batteries (e.g. lithium ion batteries). A resistor divider chain is provided that generates a set of voltages representing the ideal cell voltage (the voltage of each cell should be as if the cells were perfectly balanced). An operational amplifier circuit with an added current buffer stage generates the ideal voltage with a very high degree of accuracy, using the concept of negative feedback. The ideal voltages are each connected to the corresponding cell through a current- limiting resistance. Over time, having the cell connected to the ideal voltage provides a balancing current that moves the cell voltage very close to that ideal level. In effect, it adjusts the current of each cell during charging, discharging, and standby periods to force the cell voltages to be equal to the ideal voltages generated by the resistor divider. The device also includes solid-state switches that disconnect the circuit from the battery so that it will not discharge the battery during storage. This solution requires relatively few parts and is, therefore, of lower cost and of increased reliability due to the fewer failure modes. Additionally, this design uses very little power. A preliminary model predicts a power usage of 0.18 W for an 8-cell battery. This approach is applicable to a wide range of battery capacities and voltages.

  8. Gait and balance disorders.

    PubMed

    Masdeu, Joseph C

    2016-01-01

    This chapter focuses on one of the most common types of neurologic disorders: altered walking. Walking impairment often reflects disease of the neurologic structures mediating gait, balance or, most often, both. These structures are distributed along the neuraxis. For this reason, this chapter is introduced by a brief description of the neurobiologic underpinning of walking, stressing information that is critical for imaging, namely, the anatomic representation of gait and balance mechanisms. This background is essential not only in order to direct the relevant imaging tools to the regions more likely to be affected but also to interpret correctly imaging findings that may not be related to the walking deficit object of clinical study. The chapter closes with a discussion on how to image some of the most frequent etiologies causing gait or balance impairment. However, it focuses on syndromes not already discussed in other chapters of this volume, such as Parkinson's disease and other movement disorders, already discussed in Chapter 48, or cerebellar ataxia, in Chapter 23, in the previous volume. As regards vascular disease, the spastic hemiplegia most characteristic of brain disease needs little discussion, while the less well-understood effects of microvascular disease are extensively reviewed here, together with the imaging approach. PMID:27430451

  9. Assessment of postural balance function.

    PubMed

    Kostiukow, Anna; Rostkowska, Elzbieta; Samborski, Włodzimierz

    2009-01-01

    Postural balance is defined as the ability to stand unassisted without falling. Examination of the patient's postural balance function is a difficult diagnostic task. Most of the balance tests used in medicine provide incomplete information on this coordination ability of the human body. The aim of this study was to review methods of assessment of the patient's postural balance function, including various tests used in medical diagnostics centers. PMID:20698188

  10. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  11. Role of Seismic Calibration as a Confidence-Building Measure

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, L A; Zucca, J JW S; Phillips, W S

    2000-07-20

    Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) address the political goal of alleviating compliance concerns raised by chemical explosions and the technical goal of calibrating the International Monitoring System (IMS; ref. Article IV, E, and Part 111 of the Protocol to the treaty). The term ''calibration'' only appears in the treaty associated with CBMs and On-Site Inspection and has different meanings in each case. This difference can be illustrated through the use of a simple, conceptual equation:

  12. Establishing Quantitative Within-Subject Confidence Limits For Clinical Stereoroentgenographs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Korn, Edward L.; Baumrind, Sheldon; Chafetz, Neil; Curry, Sean; Moffitt, Francis

    1983-07-01

    It is now quite clear that under ideal conditions, discrete points can be located on x-ray films with standard deviations of less than 50 i. However, under routine clinical conditions, such considerations as individual variation in anatomy, movement of the subject between exposures, and variations in image quality combine to produce considerable reductions in the confidence which can be placed in quantitative assessments made from stereoroentgenographic films. This paper discusses some considerations involved in designing mathematical models in such a way as to optimize the use of imperfect data in answering specific clinical questions.

  13. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  14. More on Chemical Reaction Balancing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swinehart, D. F.

    1985-01-01

    A previous article stated that only the matrix method was powerful enough to balance a particular chemical equation. Shows how this equation can be balanced without using the matrix method. The approach taken involves writing partial mathematical reactions and redox half-reactions, and combining them to yield the final balanced reaction. (JN)

  15. Lesson "Balance in Nature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapanova, V.

    2012-04-01

    Lesson "Balance in Nature" This simulation game-lesson (Balance in Nature) gives an opportunity for the students to show creativity, work independently, and to create models and ideas. It creates future-oriented thought connected to their experience, allowing them to propose solutions for global problems and personal responsibility for their activities. The class is divided in two teams. Each team chooses questions. 1. Question: Pollution in the environment. 2. Question: Care for nature and climate. The teams work on the chosen tasks. They make drafts, notes and formulate their solutions on small pieces of paper, explaining the impact on nature and society. They express their points of view using many different opinions. This generates alternative thoughts and results in creative solutions. With the new knowledge and positive behaviour defined, everybody realizes that they can do something positive towards nature and climate problems and the importance of individuals for solving global problems is evident. Our main goal is to recover the ecological balance, and everybody explains his or her own well-grounded opinions. In this work process the students obtain knowledge, skills and more responsible behaviour. This process, based on his or her own experience, dialogue and teamwork, helps the participant's self-development. Making the model "human↔ nature" expresses how human activities impact the natural Earth and how these impacts in turn affect society. Taking personal responsibility, we can reduce global warming and help the Earth. By helping nature we help ourselves. Teacher: Veselina Boycheva-Chapanova " Saint Patriarch Evtimii" Scholl Str. "Ivan Vazov"-19 Plovdiv Bulgaria

  16. Earth in the balance

    SciTech Connect

    Gore, A. Jr.

    1992-01-01

    Earth in the Balance is a lucid, scientifically grounded treatise on the global environments. The author's description of the world's water, air, and land use problems is clear, lively, and knowledgable. A major section of the book explores the psychological dimensions of global environmental problems. He attempts to synthesize ideas across many fields of thought. Gore offers a Global Marshall Plan - a worldwide strategic environment initiative that would help phase out older technologies and disseminate benign substitutes, change accounting methods so environmental costs are considered, and use education as a tool.

  17. Watt and joule balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Ian A.

    2014-04-01

    The time is fast approaching when the SI unit of mass will cease to be based on a single material artefact and will instead be based upon the defined value of a fundamental constant—the Planck constant—h . This change requires that techniques exist both to determine the appropriate value to be assigned to the constant, and to measure mass in terms of the redefined unit. It is important to ensure that these techniques are accurate and reliable to allow full advantage to be taken of the stability and universality provided by the new definition and to guarantee the continuity of the world's mass measurements, which can affect the measurement of many other quantities such as energy and force. Up to now, efforts to provide the basis for such a redefinition of the kilogram were mainly concerned with resolving the discrepancies between individual implementations of the two principal techniques: the x-ray crystal density (XRCD) method [1] and the watt and joule balance methods which are the subject of this special issue. The first three papers report results from the NRC and NIST watt balance groups and the NIM joule balance group. The result from the NRC (formerly the NPL Mk II) watt balance is the first to be reported with a relative standard uncertainty below 2 × 10-8 and the NIST result has a relative standard uncertainty below 5 × 10-8. Both results are shown in figure 1 along with some previous results; the result from the NIM group is not shown on the plot but has a relative uncertainty of 8.9 × 10-6 and is consistent with all the results shown. The Consultative Committee for Mass and Related Quantities (CCM) in its meeting in 2013 produced a resolution [2] which set out the requirements for the number, type and quality of results intended to support the redefinition of the kilogram and required that there should be agreement between them. These results from NRC, NIST and the IAC may be considered to meet these requirements and are likely to be widely debated

  18. Micromechanical Oscillating Mass Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Altemir, David A. (Inventor)

    1997-01-01

    A micromechanical oscillating mass balance and method adapted for measuring minute quantities of material deposited at a selected location, such as during a vapor deposition process. The invention comprises a vibratory composite beam which includes a dielectric layer sandwiched between two conductive layers. The beam is positioned in a magnetic field. An alternating current passes through one conductive layers, the beam oscillates, inducing an output current in the second conductive layer, which is analyzed to determine the resonant frequency of the beam. As material is deposited on the beam, the mass of the beam increases and the resonant frequency of the beam shifts, and the mass added is determined.

  19. Balancing innovation and evidence.

    PubMed

    Pilcher, Jobeth W

    2015-01-01

    Nurse educators are encouraged to use evidence to guide their teaching strategies. However, evidence is not always available. How can educators make decisions regarding strategies when data are limited or absent? Where do innovation and creativity fit? How can innovation be balanced with evidence? This article provides a discussion regarding other sources of evidence, such as extrapolations, theories and principles, and collective expertise. Readers are encouraged to review the options and then analyze how they might be applied to innovation in education. PMID:25790361

  20. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures.

    PubMed

    Bebu, Ionut; Luta, George; Mathew, Thomas; Agan, Brian K

    2016-01-01

    For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates. PMID:27322305

  1. Confidence measure and performance evaluation for HRRR-based classifiers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rago, Constantino; Zajic, Tim; Huff, Melvyn; Mehra, Raman K.; Mahler, Ronald P. S.; Noviskey, Michael J.

    2002-07-01

    The work presented here is a continuation of research first reported in Mahler, et. al. Our earlier efforts included integrating the Statistical Features algorithm with a Bayesian nonlinear filter, allowing simultaneous determination of target position, velocity, pose and type via maximum a posteriori estimation. We then considered three alternative classifiers: the first based on a principal component decomposition, the second on a linear discriminant approach, and the third on a wavelet representation. In addition, preliminary results were given with regards to assigning a measure of confidence to the output of the wavelet based classifier. In this paper we continue to address the problem of target classification based on high range resolution radar signatures. In particular, we examine the performance of a variant of the principal component based classifier as the number of principal components is varied. We have chosen to quantify the performance in terms of the Bhattacharyya distance. We also present further results regarding the assignment of confidence values to the output of the wavelet based classifier.

  2. Generalized Confidence Intervals and Fiducial Intervals for Some Epidemiological Measures

    PubMed Central

    Bebu, Ionut; Luta, George; Mathew, Thomas; Agan, Brian K.

    2016-01-01

    For binary outcome data from epidemiological studies, this article investigates the interval estimation of several measures of interest in the absence or presence of categorical covariates. When covariates are present, the logistic regression model as well as the log-binomial model are investigated. The measures considered include the common odds ratio (OR) from several studies, the number needed to treat (NNT), and the prevalence ratio. For each parameter, confidence intervals are constructed using the concepts of generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities. Numerical results show that the confidence intervals so obtained exhibit satisfactory performance in terms of maintaining the coverage probabilities even when the sample sizes are not large. An appealing feature of the proposed solutions is that they are not based on maximization of the likelihood, and hence are free from convergence issues associated with the numerical calculation of the maximum likelihood estimators, especially in the context of the log-binomial model. The results are illustrated with a number of examples. The overall conclusion is that the proposed methodologies based on generalized pivotal quantities and fiducial quantities provide an accurate and unified approach for the interval estimation of the various epidemiological measures in the context of binary outcome data with or without covariates. PMID:27322305

  3. On Efficient Confidence Intervals for the Log-Normal Mean

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chami, Peter; Antoine, Robin; Sahai, Ashok

    Data obtained in biomedical research is often skewed. Examples include the incubation period of diseases like HIV/AIDS and the survival times of cancer patients. Such data, especially when they are positive and skewed, is often modeled by the log-normal distribution. If this model holds, then the log transformation produces a normal distribution. We consider the problem of constructing confidence intervals for the mean of the log-normal distribution. Several methods for doing this are known, including at least one estimator that performed better than Coxxs method for small sample sizes. We also construct a modified version of Coxxs method. Using simulation, we show that, when the sample size exceeds 30, it leads to confidence intervals that have good overall properties and are better than Coxxs method. More precisely, the actual coverage probability of our method is closer to the nominal coverage probability than is the case with Coxxs method. In addition, the new method is computationally much simpler than other well-known methods.

  4. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

  5. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  6. Covariate-adjusted confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient.

    PubMed

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Donner, Allan; El-Dali, Abdelmoneim

    2013-09-01

    A crucial step in designing a new study is to estimate the required sample size. For a design involving cluster sampling, the appropriate sample size depends on the so-called design effect, which is a function of the average cluster size and the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). It is well-known that under the framework of hierarchical and generalized linear models, a reduction in residual error may be achieved by including risk factors as covariates. In this paper we show that the covariate design, indicating whether the covariates are measured at the cluster level or at the within-cluster subject level affects the estimation of the ICC, and hence the design effect. Therefore, the distinction between these two types of covariates should be made at the design stage. In this paper we use the nested-bootstrap method to assess the accuracy of the estimated ICC for continuous and binary response variables under different covariate structures. The codes of two SAS macros are made available by the authors for interested readers to facilitate the construction of confidence intervals for the ICC. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the relative efficiency of the estimators and evaluate the accuracy of the coverage probabilities of a 95% confidence interval on the population ICC. The methodology is illustrated using a published data set of blood pressure measurements taken on family members. PMID:23871746

  7. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  8. Sustaining Vaccine Confidence in the 21st Century

    PubMed Central

    Hardt, Karin; Schmidt-Ott, Ruprecht; Glismann, Steffen; Adegbola, Richard A.; Meurice, François P.

    2013-01-01

    Vaccination provides many health and economic benefits to individuals and society, and public support for immunization programs is generally high. However, the benefits of vaccines are often not fully valued when public discussions on vaccine safety, quality or efficacy arise, and the spread of misinformation via the internet and other media has the potential to undermine immunization programs. Factors associated with improved public confidence in vaccines include evidence-based decision-making procedures and recommendations, controlled processes for licensing and monitoring vaccine safety and effectiveness and disease surveillance. Community engagement with appropriate communication approaches for each audience is a key factor in building trust in vaccines. Vaccine safety/quality issues should be handled rapidly and transparently by informing and involving those most affected and those concerned with public health in effective ways. Openness and transparency in the exchange of information between industry and other stakeholders is also important. To maximize the safety of vaccines, and thus sustain trust in vaccines, partnerships are needed between public health sector stakeholders. Vaccine confidence can be improved through collaborations that ensure high vaccine uptake rates and that inform the public and other stakeholders of the benefits of vaccines and how vaccine safety is constantly assessed, assured and communicated. PMID:26344109

  9. Quantification of confidence in a geological model of Cumbria, UK

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Waters, Colin; Lark, Murray; Mathers, Steve; Marchant, Andrew; Hulbert, Andrew

    2015-04-01

    A three-dimensional geological model of Cumbria was constructed by several geologists, applying expert judgment to interpret available data, as both a fence network of cross-sections in GSI3d and surfaces in GOCAD®. Direct statistical measures of uncertainty of the model are not available. Neither is it feasible to undertake post hoc sampling at additional independent boreholes to estimate measures of model uncertainty. The study considered various qualitative and quantitative approaches to assessing the modelled surfaces and volumes. Modellers make judgments about the relative quality of different types of available data and the extent to which simple trends in the units of interest (e.g. a gentle dip) allow their structure to be extrapolated with confidence away from observations. Confidence decays with increasing distance from a hard observation, such as a field exposure, an interpreted borehole, or a "softer" observation such as a geophysical measurement. In the study area it is possible to make qualitative assessments of four distinct structural domains, marked by different levels in the confidence of the interpretation of the geological model through factors such as availability of deep borehole data, seismic lines, surface exposure and the complexity of the bedrock geology and an appraisal of the extent, amount and quality of the data used to constrain the boundaries presented within the model. The study also attempted to provide various quantitative approaches to assess the type and distribution of data. The quantification of a Confidence Index uses expert elicitation to assess the certainty of subsurface interpretations of modelled surfaces and volumes based upon a statistical analysis of the proximity to subsurface data (boreholes and seismic data). Application of this approach is presented as elevation and thickness grids for a principal aquifer in the region. This approach is directly applicable in areas where bedrock strata are poorly exposed and the

  10. Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.

  11. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification.

    PubMed

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  12. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. PMID:26828651

  13. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGESBeta

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  14. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    PubMed Central

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  15. Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crammn, Ruediger; Budnik, Frank

    2007-01-01

    The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

  16. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-10

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  17. Unconscious information changes decision accuracy but not confidence.

    PubMed

    Vlassova, Alexandra; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2014-11-11

    The controversial idea that information can be processed and evaluated unconsciously to change behavior has had a particularly impactful history. Here, we extend a simple model of conscious decision-making to explain both conscious and unconscious accumulation of decisional evidence. Using a novel dichoptic suppression paradigm to titrate conscious and unconscious evidence, we show that unconscious information can be accumulated over time and integrated with conscious elements presented either before or after to boost or diminish decision accuracy. The unconscious information could only be used when some conscious decision-relevant information was also present. These data are fit well by a simple diffusion model in which the rate and variability of evidence accumulation is reduced but not eliminated by the removal of conscious awareness. Surprisingly, the unconscious boost in accuracy was not accompanied by corresponding increases in confidence, suggesting that we have poor metacognition for unconscious decisional evidence. PMID:25349435

  18. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  19. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  20. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-06-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  1. Measuring Intuition: Nonconscious Emotional Information Boosts Decision Accuracy and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Lufityanto, Galang; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2016-05-01

    The long-held popular notion of intuition has garnered much attention both academically and popularly. Although most people agree that there is such a phenomenon as intuition, involving emotionally charged, rapid, unconscious processes, little compelling evidence supports this notion. Here, we introduce a technique in which subliminal emotional information is presented to subjects while they make fully conscious sensory decisions. Our behavioral and physiological data, along with evidence-accumulator models, show that nonconscious emotional information can boost accuracy and confidence in a concurrent emotion-free decision task, while also speeding up response times. Moreover, these effects were contingent on the specific predictive arrangement of the nonconscious emotional valence and motion direction in the decisional stimulus. A model that simultaneously accumulates evidence from both physiological skin conductance and conscious decisional information provides an accurate description of the data. These findings support the notion that nonconscious emotions can bias concurrent nonemotional behavior-a process of intuition. PMID:27052557

  2. Confidence-Guided Local Structure Prediction with HHfrag

    PubMed Central

    Kalev, Ivan; Habeck, Michael

    2013-01-01

    We present a method to assess the reliability of local structure prediction from sequence. We introduce a greedy algorithm for filtering and enrichment of dynamic fragment libraries, compiled with remote-homology detection methods such as HHfrag. After filtering false hits at each target position, we reduce the fragment library to a minimal set of representative fragments, which are guaranteed to have correct local structure in regions of detectable conservation. We demonstrate that the location of conserved motifs in a protein sequence can be predicted by examining the recurrence and structural homogeneity of detected fragments. The resulting confidence score correlates with the local RMSD of the representative fragments and allows us to predict torsion angles from sequence with better accuracy compared to existing machine learning methods. PMID:24146881

  3. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  4. Improving Semi-Global Matching: Cost Aggregation and Confidence Measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    d'Angelo, Pablo

    2016-06-01

    Digital elevation models are one of the basic products that can be generated from remotely sensed imagery. The Semi Global Matching (SGM) algorithm is a robust and practical algorithm for dense image matching. The connection between SGM and Belief Propagation was recently developed, and based on that improvements such as correction of over-counting the data term, and a new confidence measure have been proposed. Later the MGM algorithm has been proposed, it aims at improving the regularization step of SGM, but has only been evaluated on the Middlebury stereo benchmark so far. This paper evaluates these proposed improvements on the ISPRS satellite stereo benchmark, using a Pleiades Triplet and a Cartosat-1 Stereo pair. The over-counting correction slightly improves matching density, at the expense of adding a few outliers. The MGM cost aggregation shows leads to a slight increase of accuracy.

  5. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    SciTech Connect

    Trucano, T.

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  6. Melamine in Chinese milk products and consumer confidence.

    PubMed

    Qiao, Guanghua; Guo, Ting; Klein, K K

    2010-10-01

    Chinese consumers were shocked to learn in September 2008 that melamine, a chemical used in plastics, had been found in domestic dairy products and many people, especially young children, were experiencing adverse health impacts including death. A survey of consumers in four districts of Hohhot, Inner Mongolia, near where the two largest dairy companies in China are located, was conducted in November 2008. Findings reveal that consumption of fluid milk, yogurt, milk powder and ice cream, and perceptions of the safety of these products, which had plummeted in the days following the contamination announcement, had recovered strongly by the time of the survey. High proportions of respondents expressed high or moderate levels of confidence in the domestic dairy industry and generally were satisfied with corrective and remedial actions taken by the two large Hohhot-based companies, though there was less satisfaction for actions taken by companies located in other parts of the country. PMID:20566397

  7. Rasch analyses of the Wheelchair Use Confidence Scale

    PubMed Central

    Sakakibara, Brodie M.; Miller, William C.; Rushton, Paula W.

    2015-01-01

    Objective To compare the functioning of the Wheelchair Use Confidence Scale’s 101-point response format with shortened 11-point formats, and to evaluate the scale’s measurement properties using principal components and Rasch analyses. Design Secondary analysis of cross-sectional data. Setting Community. Participants Volunteer participants from British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and Nova Scotia, Canada were manual wheelchair-users (n=220), ≥19 years of age, with ≥6 months experience with daily wheelchair-use, and no cognitive impairment. Intervention None. Measurements 65-item Wheelchair Use Confidence Scale (WheelCon). Results The 11-point response format outperformed the original 101-point format. Principal components analyses confirmed the presence of two dimensions: 1) Mobility efficacy; and 2) Self-management efficacy. Thirteen items in the Mobility efficacy subscale, and eight items in the Self-management efficacy subscale fit the Rasch Rating Scale model. Five items misfit the model developed using the 21-items from both subscales. In each of the 13- and 8-item subscales, and the 21-item short form, the two lowest and highest scores had internal consistency reliability estimates below 0.70; all other scores had reliability estimates above 0.70. Conclusion The WheelCon is comprised of two dimensions. The recoded measurements using a 0 to 10 response scale from the 13-item mobility and 8-item self-management efficacy subscales have good reliability as do the measurements from the 21-item WheelCon Short Form. The use of the subscales and/or the short form depends on the context in which they are being considered. Research to establish the reliability and validity of the measurements using the 0 to 10 response format is warranted. PMID:25461823

  8. Modernizing confidence-building measures for the Biological Weapons Convention.

    PubMed

    Koblentz, Gregory D; Chevrier, Marie Isabelle

    2011-09-01

    The Seventh Review Conference of the Biological Weapons Convention in December 2011 provides an opportunity to modernize the treaty to better address the challenges of the 21st century. The key to this modernization is to redesign the treaty's Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs), the only formal mechanism for increasing transparency and demonstrating compliance with the treaty, to address changes in the global scientific, health, and security environments since the end of the Cold War. The scope of the CBMs should be expanded beyond state-run biological warfare programs to encompass a broader array of threats to global security, such as biological terrorism, laboratory accidents, dual-use research, and disease pandemics. Modernizing the CBM mechanism to take into account these new risks would extend the transparency-enhancing benefits of CBMs to a range of new and important topics, such as biosafety, laboratory biosecurity, and dual-use research oversight; make the CBMs and the treaty itself more relevant to the concerns and priorities of more states; and build on progress made during the recent series of intersessional meetings. To accomplish this, the CBMs need to be revised to shift their focus from hardware, the dual-use capabilities relevant to the treaty, to software, the political and legal institutions that govern the development and use of these capabilities. A more modern CBM mechanism should encourage greater participation in the confidence-building process, improve international cooperation against the full spectrum of biological risks, and promote the goal of universal membership in the treaty. PMID:21819226

  9. Informing Decisions with Climate Information at Different Levels of Confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lempert, R. J.; Kalra, N.

    2012-12-01

    As one important purpose, uncertainty quantification aims to provide information in a way that can usefully inform decisions. But many actual decisions may prove sensitive to information at different levels of confidence, which poses challenges for the uncertainty quantification task. For instance, some salient information may be well-represented by pdf's while other information may only be supported by a scattering of studies. This talk will demonstrate a decision analytic framework that can usefully employ information at different levels of confidence. The framework is based on the idea of identifying thresholds in various combinations of system properties that would suggest switching from one decision to another, and then gathering scientific evidence relevant to those thresholds that can help decision makers adjudicate their choices. The talk will demonstrate this approach with an example analysis that considers how the Port of Los Angeles might consider the potential for extreme sea level rise in its investment plans. This study uses a robust decision making (RDM) analysis to address two questions: (1) under what future conditions would a Port of Los Angeles decision to harden its facilities against extreme sea level rise at the next upgrade pass a cost-benefit test, and (2) does current science and other available information suggest such conditions are sufficiently likely to justify such an investment? To answer this second question, we use information expresses as a combination of probabilistic climate forecasts, interval probabilities, and non-probabilistic information. We find that a decision to harden at the next upgrade would merit serious consideration for only one of the four Port facilities considered and hardening costs would have to be 5 to 250 times smaller than current estimates to warrant consideration for the other three facilities. This study also compares and contrasts a robust decision making analysis with a full probabilistic analysis. This

  10. Energy balance climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

  11. Balancing Family and Career

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andam, Aba Bentil; Dawson, Silvina Ponce; Horton, K. Renee; Sandow, Barbara

    2005-10-01

    In essentially all countries, responsibilities for child care, cooking, cleaning, and other homemaking tasks fall predominantly on the wife and mother. In addition, the childbearing years come during the period when a physicist must study hard, work long hours on research, and take temporary positions, often abroad. Thus, balancing family and career has long been one of the major barriers to women's participation in science and engineering fields, including physics. While many young women believe that they must choose between having children and having a science career, the fact is that the majority of women physicists in both developing and developed countries have successfully done both. This paper summarizes some ideas and recommendations raised in discussions, especially focused on easing the challenges of having children while in temporary jobs, returning to physics after a career break, the need for "family-friendly" working conditions, and the dual-career problem facing couples where both are scientists.

  12. Applications of balanced pairs

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Li, HuanHuan; Wang, JunFu; Huang, ZhaoYong

    2016-05-01

    Let $(\\mathscr{X}$, $\\mathscr{Y})$ be a balanced pair in an abelian category. We first introduce the notion of cotorsion pairs relative to $(\\mathscr{X}$, $\\mathscr{Y})$, and then give some equivalent characterizations when a relative cotorsion pair is hereditary or perfect. We prove that if the $\\mathscr{X}$-resolution dimension of $\\mathscr{Y}$ (resp. $\\mathscr{Y}$-coresolution dimension of $\\mathscr{X}$) is finite, then the bounded homotopy category of $\\mathscr{Y}$ (resp. $\\mathscr{X}$) is contained in that of $\\mathscr{X}$ (resp. $\\mathscr{Y}$). As a consequence, we get that the right $\\mathscr{X}$-singularity category coincides with the left $\\mathscr{Y}$-singularity category if the $\\mathscr{X}$-resolution dimension of $\\mathscr{Y}$ and the $\\mathscr{Y}$-coresolution dimension of $\\mathscr{X}$ are finite.

  13. Skin friction balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ping, Tcheng (Inventor); Supplee, Frank H., Jr. (Inventor)

    1989-01-01

    A skin friction balance uses a parallel linkage mechanism to avoid inaccuracies in skin friction measurement attributable to off-center normal forces. The parallel linkage mechanism includes a stationary plate mounted in a cage, and an upper and lower movable plate which are linked to each other and to the stationary plate throught three vertical links. Flexure pivots are provided for pivotally connecting the links and the plates. A sensing element connected to the upper plate moves in response to skin friction, and the lower plate moves in the opposite direction of the upper plate. A force motor maintains a null position of the sensing element by exerting a restoring force in response to a signal generated by a linear variable differential transformer (LVDT).

  14. Energy balance in peridynamics.

    SciTech Connect

    Lehoucq, Richard B.; Silling, Stewart Andrew

    2010-09-01

    The peridynamic model of solid mechanics treats internal forces within a continuum through interactions across finite distances. These forces are determined through a constitutive model that, in the case of an elastic material, permits the strain energy density at a point to depend on the collective deformation of all the material within some finite distance of it. The forces between points are evaluated from the Frechet derivative of this strain energy density with respect to the deformation map. The resulting equation of motion is an integro-differential equation written in terms of these interparticle forces, rather than the traditional stress tensor field. Recent work on peridynamics has elucidated the energy balance in the presence of these long-range forces. We have derived the appropriate analogue of stress power, called absorbed power, that leads to a satisfactory definition of internal energy. This internal energy is additive, allowing us to meaningfully define an internal energy density field in the body. An expression for the local first law of thermodynamics within peridynamics combines this mechanical component, the absorbed power, with heat transport. The global statement of the energy balance over a subregion can be expressed in a form in which the mechanical and thermal terms contain only interactions between the interior of the subregion and the exterior, in a form anticipated by Noll in 1955. The local form of this first law within peridynamics, coupled with the second law as expressed in the Clausius-Duhem inequality, is amenable to the Coleman-Noll procedure for deriving restrictions on the constitutive model for thermomechanical response. Using an idea suggested by Fried in the context of systems of discrete particles, this procedure leads to a dissipation inequality for peridynamics that has a surprising form. It also leads to a thermodynamically consistent way to treat damage within the theory, shedding light on how damage, including the

  15. Confidence and Perceived Competence of Preservice Teachers to Implement Biodiversity Education in Primary Schools—Four comparative case studies from Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindemann-Matthies, Petra; Constantinou, Costas; Lehnert, Hans-Joachim; Nagel, Ueli; Raper, George; Kadji-Beltran, Chrysanthi

    2011-11-01

    This multinational research study was carried out between 2004 and 2006 in four teacher education institutions in Cyprus, England, Switzerland, and Germany. With the help of a written questionnaire, the confidence and perceived competence of preservice primary teachers (N = 690) to deliver biodiversity education in school were investigated. Data were triangulated with findings from a previous stage of the overall research project. Study participants' confidence to carry out certain outdoor activities in school increased with the number of similar experiences they had during their own secondary school education, and the more personal classroom experiences they had during their teacher education. A sound knowledge of local wild organisms strongly added to their confidence. However, preservice teachers' perceived competence, and thus motivation to implement biodiversity education later on in school, was related even more strongly to the extent of preparation they had received during their teacher education. The results indicate that teacher education programmes that focus exclusively on filling (biodiversity) knowledge gaps might fail to raise confidence and competence in their students to carry out biodiversity education in school. Programmes that have a higher possibility of attaining effectiveness in biodiversity education seek to strike a balance between background knowledge development, pedagogical content knowledge, and opportunities during teaching practice that leads to experiential gains in enacting meaningful activity sequences and engaging students in holistic educational innovations. Within such programmes, it would be fruitful to further explore the relationship between confidence, perceived competence, and actual teaching performance.

  16. Radar channel balancing with commutation

    SciTech Connect

    Doerry, Armin Walter

    2014-02-01

    When multiple channels are employed in a pulse-Doppler radar, achieving and maintaining balance between the channels is problematic. In some circumstances the channels may be commutated to achieve adequate balance. Commutation is the switching, trading, toggling, or multiplexing of the channels between signal paths. Commutation allows modulating the imbalance energy away from the balanced energy in Doppler, where it can be mitigated with filtering.

  17. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOEpatents

    Wheat, Stephen R.

    1997-01-01

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated.

  18. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOEpatents

    Wheat, S.R.

    1997-05-13

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers is disclosed. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated. 13 figs.

  19. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F.

    2012-01-01

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  20. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F

    2012-05-19

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  1. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  2. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  3. Self-confidence for emergency intervention: adaptation and cultural validation of the Self-confidence Scale in nursing students

    PubMed Central

    Martins, José Carlos Amado; Baptista, Rui Carlos Negrão; Coutinho, Verónica Rita Dias; Mazzo, Alessandra; Rodrigues, Manuel Alves; Mendes, Isabel Amélia Costa

    2014-01-01

    Objective: develop the cultural adaptation and validation of a Portuguese version of the Self-confidence Scale. Method: descriptive and exploratory methodological research for the adaptation and validation of a measuring instrument. The translation, synthesis, back-translation, revision, pretest and semantic evaluation phases were accomplished. The evaluation involving 178 students from a Teaching Diploma Program in Nursing. The ethical principles were complied with. Results: the internal consistency analysis of the scale reveals good Alpha coefficients (0.92 for the global scale and superior to 0.83 for the different dimensions). The factor analysis presents a three-factor solution with rational meaning. Conclusion: The scale is easy to answer and understand. Based on the obtained results, it can be affirmed that the scale reveals good psychometric properties, with great potential to be used in future research. PMID:25054868

  4. Libra: Scalable Load Balance Analysis

    SciTech Connect

    2009-09-16

    Libra is a tool for scalable analysis of load balance data from all processes in a parallel application. Libra contains an instrumentation module that collects model data from parallel applications and a parallel compression mechanism that uses distributed wavelet transforms to gather load balance model data in a scalable fashion. Data is output to files, and these files can be viewed in a GUI tool by Libra users. The GUI tool associates particular load balance data with regions for code, emabling users to view the load balance properties of distributed "slices" of their application code.

  5. Effect of Wii-based balance training on corticomotor excitability post stroke.

    PubMed

    Omiyale, Oluwabunmi; Crowell, Charles R; Madhavan, Sangeetha

    2015-01-01

    The objective was to examine the effectiveness of a 3-week balance training program using the Nintendo Wii Fit gaming system (Nintendo Wii Sports, Nintendo, Redmond, WA) on lower limb corticomotor excitability and other clinical measures in chronic stroke survivors. Ten individuals diagnosed with ischemic stroke with residual hemiparesis received balance training using the Wii Fit for 60 min/day, three times/week, for three weeks. At the end of training, an increase in interhemispheric symmetry of corticomotor excitability of the tibialis anterior muscle representations was noted (n = 9). Participants also showed improvements in reaction time, time to perform the Dual Timed-Up-and-Go test, and balance confidence. The training-induced balance in corticomotor excitability suggests that this Wii-based balance training paradigm has the potential to influence neural plasticity and thereby functional recovery. PMID:25425118

  6. ROCS: A reproducibility index and confidence score for interaction proteomics

    PubMed Central

    2013-01-01

    Background Affinity-Purification Mass-Spectrometry (AP-MS) provides a powerful means of identifying protein complexes and interactions. Several important challenges exist in interpreting the results of AP-MS experiments. First, the reproducibility of AP-MS experimental replicates can be low, due both to technical variability and the dynamic nature of protein interactions in the cell. Second, the identification of true protein-protein interactions in AP-MS experiments is subject to inaccuracy due to high false negative and false positive rates. Several experimental approaches can be used to mitigate these drawbacks, including the use of replicated and control experiments and relative quantification to sensitively distinguish true interacting proteins from false ones. Results To address the issues of reproducibility and accuracy of protein-protein interactions, we introduce a two-step method, called ROCS, which makes use of Indicator Proteins to select reproducible AP-MS experiments, and of Confidence Scores to select specific protein-protein interactions. The Indicator Proteins account for measures of protein identification as well as protein reproducibility, effectively allowing removal of outlier experiments that contribute noise and affect downstream inferences. The filtered set of experiments is then used in the Protein-Protein Interaction (PPI) scoring step. Prey protein scoring is done by computing a Confidence Score, which accounts for the probability of occurrence of prey proteins in the bait experiments relative to the control experiment, where the significance cutoff parameter is estimated by simultaneously controlling false positives and false negatives against metrics of false discovery rate and biological coherence respectively. In summary, the ROCS method relies on automatic objective criterions for parameter estimation and error-controlled procedures. We illustrate the performance of our method by applying it to five previously published AP

  7. CONFIDENCE INTERVALS AND STANDARD ERROR INTERVALS: WHAT DO THEY MEAN IN TERMS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE?

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    We investigate the use of confidence intervals and standard error intervals to draw conclusions regarding tests of hypotheses about normal population means. Mathematical expressions and algebraic manipulations are given, and computer simulations are performed to assess the usefulness of confidence ...

  8. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  9. Par Pond water balance

    SciTech Connect

    Hiergesell, R.A.; Dixon, K.L.

    1996-06-01

    A water budget for the Par Pond hydrologic system was established in order to estimate the rate of groundwater influx to Par Pond. This estimate will be used in modeling exercises to predict Par Pond reservoir elevation and spillway discharge in the scenario where Savannah River water is no longer pumped and discharged into Par Pond. The principal of conservation of mass was used to develop the water budget, where water inflow was set equal to water outflow. Components of the water budget were identified, and the flux associated with each was determined. The water budget was considered balanced when inflow and outflow summed to zero. The results of this study suggest that Par Pond gains water from the groundwater system in the upper reaches of the reservoir, but looses water to the groundwater system near the dam. The rate of flux of groundwater from the water table aquifer into Par Pond was determined to be 13 cfs. The rate of flux from Par Pond to the water table aquifer near the dam was determined to be 7 cfs.

  10. Balancing "we" and "me".

    PubMed

    Congdon, Christine; Flynn, Donna; Redman, Melanie

    2014-10-01

    The open office is the dominant form of workspace design for good reason: It fosters collaboration, promotes learning, and nurtures strong culture. But what most companies fail to realize is that collaboration has a natural rhythm that requires both interaction and private contemplation. Companies have been trying for decades to find the balance between public and private workspace that best supports collaboration. In 1980 52% of U.S. employees lacked workspaces where they could concentrate without distraction. In response, high-walled cubicles took over the corporate landscape. By the late 1990s, the tide had turned, and only 23% of employees wanted more privacy, and 50% wanted more access to other people. Ever since, firms have been beefing up spaces that support collaboration and shrinking areas for individual work. But the pendulum seems to have swung too far: Once again, people feel a pressing need for privacy, not only to do heads-down work but to cope with the intensity of work today. To address these needs, according to the authors, we have to rethink our assumptions about privacy. Traditionally defined in physical terms, privacy is now about the individual's ability to control information and stimulation. In this article, the authors examine workspace design through the new lens of privacy and offer insights on how to foster teamwork and solitude. PMID:25509575

  11. In the Balance:

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Lawrence T.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The nineteenth century saw the incorporation of technology, such as the stethoscope, microscope, and thermometer, into clinical medicine. An instrument that has received less attention in the history of the role of technology in medicine is the weighing balance, or scale. Although not new to nineteenth-century medicine, it played an important part in the rise of the numerical method and its application to the development and shaping of pediatrics. This article explores the origin and development of the weighing of babies. During its clinical and scientific adoption, this simple procedure was refined and applied in a number of increasingly sophisticated and far-reaching ways: as a measure of the dimensions of the fetus and newborn, as an index of the viability of the newborn, as a means of estimating milk intake, as a way of distinguishing normality from abnormality, as a summary measure of infant health, and as an instrument of mass surveillance. In so doing it changed the way in which medical care was delivered to infants. PMID:20632732

  12. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    PubMed

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  13. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M.

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  14. Concept of a (1-. cap alpha. ) performance confidence interval

    SciTech Connect

    Leong, H.H.; Johnson, G.R.; Bechtel, T.N.

    1980-01-01

    A multi-input, single-output system is assumed to be represented by some model. The distribution functions of the input and the output variables are considered to be at least obtainable through experimental data. Associated with the computer response of the model corresponding to given inputs, a conditional pseudoresponse set is generated. This response can be constructed by means of the model by using the simulated pseudorandom input variates from a neighborhood defined by a preassigned probability allowance. A pair of such pseudoresponse values can then be computed by a procedure corresponding to a (1-..cap alpha..) probability for the conditional pseudoresponse set. The range defined by such a pair is called a (1-..cap alpha..) performance confidence interval with respect to the model. The application of this concept can allow comparison of the merit of two models describing the same system, or it can detect a system change when the current response is out of the performance interval with respect to the previously identified model. 6 figures.

  15. Efficient network meta-analysis: a confidence distribution approach*

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Guang; Liu, Dungang; Liu, Regina Y.; Xie, Minge; Hoaglin, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Network meta-analysis synthesizes several studies of multiple treatment comparisons to simultaneously provide inference for all treatments in the network. It can often strengthen inference on pairwise comparisons by borrowing evidence from other comparisons in the network. Current network meta-analysis approaches are derived from either conventional pairwise meta-analysis or hierarchical Bayesian methods. This paper introduces a new approach for network meta-analysis by combining confidence distributions (CDs). Instead of combining point estimators from individual studies in the conventional approach, the new approach combines CDs which contain richer information than point estimators and thus achieves greater efficiency in its inference. The proposed CD approach can e ciently integrate all studies in the network and provide inference for all treatments even when individual studies contain only comparisons of subsets of the treatments. Through numerical studies with real and simulated data sets, the proposed approach is shown to outperform or at least equal the traditional pairwise meta-analysis and a commonly used Bayesian hierarchical model. Although the Bayesian approach may yield comparable results with a suitably chosen prior, it is highly sensitive to the choice of priors (especially the prior of the between-trial covariance structure), which is often subjective. The CD approach is a general frequentist approach and is prior-free. Moreover, it can always provide a proper inference for all the treatment effects regardless of the between-trial covariance structure. PMID:25067933

  16. Can we confidently diagnose pilomatricoma with fine needle aspiration cytology?

    PubMed

    Wong, Yin-Ping; Masir, Noraidah; Sharifah, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical 'lymphadenopathy', and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. 'Ghost cells' were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic 'ghost cells' and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  17. Can We Confidently Diagnose Pilomatricoma with Fine Needle Aspiration Cytology?

    PubMed Central

    WONG, Yin-Ping; MASIR, Noraidah; SHARIFAH, Noor Akmal

    2015-01-01

    Pilomatricomas can be confidently diagnosed cytologically due to their characteristic cytomorphological features. However, these lesions are rarely encountered by cytopathologists and thus pose a diagnostic dilemma to even experienced individuals, especially when the lesions are focally sampled. We describe two cases of histologically confirmed pilomatricoma. The first case is of a 13-year-old boy with posterior cervical ‘lymphadenopathy’, and the second one is of a 12-year-old girl with a lower cheek swelling. Both aspirates comprised predominantly atypical basal-like cells, with prominent nucleoli. ‘Ghost cells’ were readily identified by cell block in case two, but cell block in case one yielded no diagnostic material. In case two, pilomatricoma was accurately diagnosed pre-operatively. A cytological suspicion of a neoplastic process was raised in case one. Despite being diagnostically challenging, pilomatricoma can be diagnosed with careful observation of two unique cytological features of the lesions: (1) pathognomonic ‘ghost cells’ and (2) irregular, saw-toothed, loosely cohesive basaloid cells, with prominent nucleoli. The role of thorough sampling of the lesion, with multiple passes of various sites, cannot be overemphasized. PMID:25892955

  18. Confidence in government and vaccination willingness in the USA.

    PubMed

    Mesch, Gustavo S; Schwirian, Kent P

    2015-06-01

    The most recent internationally widespread disease outbreak occurred during the flu season of 2009 and 2010. On April 2009, the first cases of influenza A (H1N1) (Popularly called, Swine Flu) were confirmed in the USA and UK following a novel virus that was first identified in Mexico. As the virus spread rapidly, the risk of morbidity and mortality increased in several countries. In this paper, we rely on the social cognitive theory of risk to assess the willingness of the US public to comply with vaccination and reduce the risk of sickness and death from the flu. We conduct a secondary data analysis of the Pew Research for the People and Press October 2009 and investigate the factors associated with willingness to take the swine flu vaccine (n = 1000). The findings indicate that the decision to take the swine flu vaccination was highly polarized across partisan lines. Controlling for education, income and demographic factors, the likelihood of taking the vaccine was associated with party identification. Individuals that identified themselves as Democrats were more likely to be willing to take the swine vaccine than individuals that identify themselves as Republicans and Independents. Confidence in the ability of the government to deal with the swine flu crisis seems to explain party identification differences in the willingness to take the vaccine. The implications of the findings are discussed. PMID:25369794

  19. Behavior Detection using Confidence Intervals of Hidden Markov Models

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Christopher H

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are commonly used to analyze real-world problems. Their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. Currently, HMMs recognize patterns using a maximum likelihood approach. One major drawback with this approach is that data observations are mapped to HMMs without considering the number of data samples available. Another problem is that this approach is only useful for choosing between HMMs. It does not provide a criteria for determining whether or not a given HMM adequately matches the data stream. In this work, we recognize complex behaviors using HMMs and confidence intervals. The certainty of a data match increases with the number of data samples considered. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves are used to find the optimal threshold for either accepting or rejecting a HMM description. We present one example using a family of HMM's to show the utility of the proposed approach. A second example using models extracted from a database of consumer purchases provides additional evidence that this approach can perform better than existing techniques.

  20. Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

    PubMed Central

    Alden, Kieran; Andrews, Paul S.; Polack, Fiona A. C.; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark C.; Timmis, Jon

    2015-01-01

    The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions. PMID:25589574

  1. Fuzzy confidence regions for the Taguchi capability index

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Ramezani, Zeinab; Parchami, Abbas; Mashinchi, Mashaallah

    2011-06-01

    Most of the traditional methods for assessing the capability of manufacturing processes are dealing with crisp quality. In quality control, such as other statistical problems, we may confront imprecise concepts. One case is a situation in which specification limits (SLs) are imprecise. In this situation, the fuzzy process capability indices (PCIs) ? , ? and ? are necessary for measuring the fuzzy quality in an in-control process. These fuzzy capability indices are also helpful for comparing manufacturing processes with SLs. The fuzzy capability index ? is used to provide an assessment of the ability of the fuzzy process to be clustered around the target value. The emphasis on the use of ? over the other two fuzzy indices, ? and ? , is due to its definition that provides indications of both the process variability and deviation of process mean from a specified target. In this article, by using triangular fuzzy SLs, we present four approximate ? fuzzy confidence regions for the fuzzy PCI ? . A numerical example is given to show the performance of the method.

  2. Bootstrap confidence intervals in multi-level simultaneous component analysis.

    PubMed

    Timmerman, Marieke E; Kiers, Henk A L; Smilde, Age K; Ceulemans, Eva; Stouten, Jeroen

    2009-05-01

    Multi-level simultaneous component analysis (MLSCA) was designed for the exploratory analysis of hierarchically ordered data. MLSCA specifies a component model for each level in the data, where appropriate constraints express possible similarities between groups of objects at a certain level, yielding four MLSCA variants. The present paper discusses different bootstrap strategies for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) on the individual parameters. In selecting a proper strategy, the main issues to address are the resampling scheme and the non-uniqueness of the parameters. The resampling scheme depends on which level(s) in the hierarchy are considered random, and which fixed. The degree of non-uniqueness depends on the MLSCA variant, and, in two variants, the extent to which the user exploits the transformational freedom. A comparative simulation study examines the quality of bootstrap CIs of different MLSCA parameters. Generally, the quality of bootstrap CIs appears to be good, provided the sample sizes are sufficient at each level that is considered to be random. The latter implies that if more than a single level is considered random, the total number of observations necessary to obtain reliable inferential information increases dramatically. An empirical example illustrates the use of bootstrap CIs in MLSCA. PMID:18086338

  3. Constructing Confidence Intervals for Reliability Coefficients Using Central and Noncentral Distributions.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Weber, Deborah A.

    Greater understanding and use of confidence intervals is central to changes in statistical practice (G. Cumming and S. Finch, 2001). Reliability coefficients and confidence intervals for reliability coefficients can be computed using a variety of methods. Estimating confidence intervals includes both central and noncentral distribution approaches.…

  4. An Integrated Understanding of Confidence and User Calibration in Information Systems Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Fengchun

    2012-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

  5. Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

  6. Combining one-sample confidence procedures for inference in the two-sample case.

    PubMed

    Fay, Michael P; Proschan, Michael A; Brittain, Erica

    2015-03-01

    We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher's exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher's exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage. PMID:25274182

  7. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  8. Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

  9. Pre-Service Geography Teachers' Confidence in Geographical Subject Matter Knowledge and Teaching Geographical Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harte, Wendy; Reitano, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This research tracked the confidence of 16 undergraduate and postgraduate pre-service geography teachers as they completed a single semester, senior phase geography curriculum course. The study focused specifically on the pre-service teachers' confidence in geographical subject matter knowledge and their confidence in teaching geographical skills.…

  10. Combining One-Sample Confidence Procedures for Inference in the Two-Sample Case

    PubMed Central

    Fay, Michael P.; Proschan, Michael A.; Brittain, Erica

    2016-01-01

    Summary We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher’s exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher’s exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage. PMID:25274182

  11. Supporting the Distant Student: The Effect of ARCS-Based Strategies on Confidence and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huett, Jason Bond; Young, Jon; Huett, Kimberly Cleaves; Moller, Leslie; Bray, Marty

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to manipulate the component of confidence found in Keller's ARCS Model to enhance the confidence and performance of undergraduate students enrolled in an online course at a Texas University. This experiment used SAM Office 2003 and WebCT for the delivery of the tactics, strategies, confidence-enhancing e-mails…

  12. Enhancing School Connectedness: Teachers' Perceived Confidence in Positively Connecting Students to School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vidourek, Rebecca A.; King, Keith A.

    2014-01-01

    The present study examined teachers' perceived confidence in using strategies to positively connect students to school. A total of 419 teachers in Ohio elementary and middle schools were surveyed (60% response rate). Results indicated that teachers felt slightly confident to confident in their abilities to positively connect students to school.…

  13. User's Handbook for Confidence Testing as a Diagnostic Aid in Technical Training.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Echternacht, Gary J.; And Others

    This handbook presents instructions for implementing a confidence testing program in technical training situations, identification of possible areas of application, techniques for evaluating confidence information, advantages and disadvantages of confidence testing, time considerations, and problem areas. Complete instructions for "Pick-One" and…

  14. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  15. Public Confidence in Public Education: A Growing Concern in the 80's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    This literature review and analysis of the problem of building community confidence focuses on the work of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Developing Public Confidence in Schools. Approaches to confidence building are categorized as: communications, concentrating on expanding communications one-way between school and the home; public…

  16. A balancing act for renewables

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Elliott, David

    2016-01-01

    Energy storage will play a key role in increasing the use of variable energy sources. Nonetheless, storage is not the only balancing option and the overall design of power systems will incorporate a range of flexible generation, storage and grid-balancing options of different types and scales.

  17. Balancing Safety and Free Speech

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hudson, David L., Jr.

    2004-01-01

    According to Jay Worona, general counsel for the New York State School Board Association, "Balancing safety and student constitutional rights is not easy. It has to be a careful balance. School officials must be prudent and not overreact. But one part of the equation has to be paramount. And safety should be the primary concern" (personal…

  18. Heat balance of the Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Budyko, M. I.; Berlyand, T. G.; Yefimova, N. A.; Zubenok, L. I.; Strokina, L. A.

    1980-01-01

    Results of improved calculations of the heat balance components of Earth's surface are reported for yearly average conditions. The technique used to determine the heat-balance components from land- and sea-based actinometric observations as well as from satellite data on the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is described, with special attention given to short-wavelength solar radiation on the continents, effective radiation from the land surface, the radiation balance of the ocean surface, heat expended by both evaporation from the ocean surface, and turbulent heat transfer between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. World maps of heat-balance components show yearly average values of total radiation, radiation balance, heat expended by evaporation, the turbulent heat flow between Earth's surface and atmosphere, and heat transfer between the ocean surface and underlying waters. The global surface heat balance is estimated along with global values of the various components and the heat-balance components for different latitude zones.

  19. The Balance-Scale Problem.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Greenwood, Jay, Ed.

    1997-01-01

    Presents the reflections of students on a problem given in May, 1996 issue of this journal in order to share the thinking of middle school students. The problem concerned weighing on a double per balance if given a clump of clay, and a 20-gram and 50-gram balance. (ASK)

  20. Development of a 5-Component Balance for Water Tunnel Applications

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Suarez, Carlos J.; Kramer, Brian R.; Smith, Brooke C.

    1999-01-01

    The principal objective of this research/development effort was to develop a multi-component strain gage balance to measure both static and dynamic forces and moments on models tested in flow visualization water tunnels. A balance was designed that allows measuring normal and side forces, and pitching, yawing and rolling moments (no axial force). The balance mounts internally in the model and is used in a manner typical of wind tunnel balances. The key differences between a water tunnel balance and a wind tunnel balance are the requirement for very high sensitivity since the loads are very low (typical normal force is 90 grams or 0.2 lbs), the need for water proofing the gage elements, and the small size required to fit into typical water tunnel models. The five-component balance was calibrated and demonstrated linearity in the responses of the primary components to applied loads, very low interactions between the sections and no hysteresis. Static experiments were conducted in the Eidetics water tunnel with delta wings and F/A-18 models. The data were compared to forces and moments from wind tunnel tests of the same or similar configurations. The comparison showed very good agreement, providing confidence that loads can be measured accurately in the water tunnel with a relatively simple multi-component internal balance. The success of the static experiments encouraged the use of the balance for dynamic experiments. Among the advantages of conducting dynamic tests in a water tunnel are less demanding motion and data acquisition rates than in a wind tunnel test (because of the low-speed flow) and the capability of performing flow visualization and force/moment (F/M) measurements simultaneously with relative simplicity. This capability of simultaneous flow visualization and for F/M measurements proved extremely useful to explain the results obtained during these dynamic tests. In general, the development of this balance should encourage the use of water tunnels for a

  1. Single-Vector Calibration of Wind-Tunnel Force Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Parker, P. A.; DeLoach, R.

    2003-01-01

    An improved method of calibrating a wind-tunnel force balance involves the use of a unique load application system integrated with formal experimental design methodology. The Single-Vector Force Balance Calibration System (SVS) overcomes the productivity and accuracy limitations of prior calibration methods. A force balance is a complex structural spring element instrumented with strain gauges for measuring three orthogonal components of aerodynamic force (normal, axial, and side force) and three orthogonal components of aerodynamic torque (rolling, pitching, and yawing moments). Force balances remain as the state-of-the-art instrument that provide these measurements on a scale model of an aircraft during wind tunnel testing. Ideally, each electrical channel of the balance would respond only to its respective component of load, and it would have no response to other components of load. This is not entirely possible even though balance designs are optimized to minimize these undesirable interaction effects. Ultimately, a calibration experiment is performed to obtain the necessary data to generate a mathematical model and determine the force measurement accuracy. In order to set the independent variables of applied load for the calibration 24 NASA Tech Briefs, October 2003 experiment, a high-precision mechanical system is required. Manual deadweight systems have been in use at Langley Research Center (LaRC) since the 1940s. These simple methodologies produce high confidence results, but the process is mechanically complex and labor-intensive, requiring three to four weeks to complete. Over the past decade, automated balance calibration systems have been developed. In general, these systems were designed to automate the tedious manual calibration process resulting in an even more complex system which deteriorates load application quality. The current calibration approach relies on a one-factor-at-a-time (OFAT) methodology, where each independent variable is

  2. A balancing act: Physical balance, through arousal, influences size perception

    PubMed Central

    Geuss, Michael N.; Stefanucci, Jeanine K.; de Benedictis-Kessner, Justin; Stevens, Nicholas R.

    2012-01-01

    Previous research demonstrates that manipulating vision influences balance. Here, we question whether manipulating balance can influence vision and how it may influence vision, specifically the perception of width. In Experiment 1, participants estimated the width of beams while balanced and unbalanced. When unbalanced, participants judged the widths to be smaller. One possible explanation is that unbalanced participants did not view the stimulus as long as when balanced because they were focused on remaining balanced. In Experiment 2, we tested this notion by limiting viewing time. Experiment 2 replicated the findings of Experiment 1 but viewing time had no effect on width judgments. In Experiment 3, participants’ level of arousal was manipulated because the balancing task likely produced arousal. While jogging, participants judged the beams to be smaller. In Experiment 4, participants completed another arousing task (counting backward by 7s) that did not involve movement. Again, participants judged the beams to be smaller when aroused. Experiment 5a raised participants’ level of arousal before estimating the board widths (to control for potential dual-task effects) and found that heightened arousal still influenced perceived width of the boards. Collectively, heightened levels of arousal, caused by multiple manipulations (including balance), influenced perceived width. PMID:20952786

  3. The effects of 8-week balance training or weight training

    PubMed Central

    Kim, Sukwon; Lockhart, Thurmon; Roberto, Karen

    2010-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the influence of participating in an 8-week physical training (ie: balance or weight training) on psychosocial outcomes for independently living healthy older adults. Eighteen older adults (65 years old or older) voluntarily participated for this study. Participants were randomly and evenly distributed in 3 different groups such as balance, weight, or control group; 6 participants each. Fear of falling and social activity levels were statistically tested by evaluating questionnaires validated in previous studies. Psychological factors improved in all groups after 8 weeks (P < 0.05). Social interaction level did not improve in any of the three groups, although all participants exhibited improvements in being physically independent (P < 0.05). Results suggested that being physically active as well as being socially active could result in being less fearful of falls, more confident of leaving residency, being more independent, and being more active. PMID:21394234

  4. Searching for balanced development.

    PubMed

    Kulessa, M

    1987-08-01

    It is significant in China, as the day of 5 billion is commemorated, that the Government has shown its full committment to a family planning program that has been internationally acknowledged as one of the most successful efforts in the world today. Since 1979, the annual population growth rate in China has gone down from 2.7% to an annual average of around 1.2%. In fact, because China makes up more than 1/5 of the world's population, the overall growth rate achieved worldwide has been reduced to about 2%. This is heavily due to the achievements of the Chinese family planning program. Even as China has lowered its birthrate, its rate of agricultural production has rapidly risen. At present, China is doing well in grain production. Although the per capita income in China is still comparatively low, the country is able to feed its citizens, and the famines that used to be a big problem are now but a bad memory. As the close relationship between population and development is observed, there is some controversy about the effects and impact of family planning on development. The belief is held that the more people there are in this world, the more progress there will be because more brains, hands, and energy will be harnessed for development. As has also been noted, however, a person is not just head and hands--a person has a mouth to feed, as well. Thus, there is a need to balance the number of people with the resources of the society. If the rate of population growth outstrips economic and social production, then hunger and poverty will result, as the fruits of development will be eaten up too rapidly. PMID:12269159

  5. Work–Life Balance: History, Costs, and Budgeting for Balance

    PubMed Central

    Raja, Siva; Stein, Sharon L.

    2014-01-01

    The concept and difficulties of work–life balance are not unique to surgeons, but professional responsibilities make maintaining a work–life balance difficult. Consequences of being exclusively career focused include burn out, physical, and mental ailments. In addition, physician burn out may hinder optimal patient care and incur significant costs on health care in general. Assessing current uses of time, allocating goals catered to an individual surgeon, and continual self-assessment may help balance time, and ideally will help prevent burn out. PMID:25067921

  6. Judgments of learning index relative confidence, not subjective probability.

    PubMed

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A

    2015-11-01

    The underconfidence-with-practice (UWP) effect is a common finding in calibration studies concerned with judgments of learning (JOLs) elicited on a percentage scale. The UWP pattern is present when, in a procedure consisting of multiple study-test cycles, the mean scale JOLs underestimate the mean recall performance on Cycle 2 and beyond. Although this pattern is present both for items recalled and unrecalled on the preceding cycle, to date research has concentrated mostly on the sources of UWP for the latter type of items. In the present study, we aimed to bridge this gap. In three experiments, we examined calibration on the third of three cycles. The results of Experiment 1 demonstrated the typical pattern of higher recall and scale JOLs for previously recalled items than for unrecalled ones. More importantly, they also revealed that even though the UWP effect was found for items previously recalled both once and twice, its magnitude was greater for the former class of items. Experiments 2 and 3, which employed a binary betting task and a binary 0 %/100 % JOL task, respectively, demonstrated that people can accurately predict future recall for previously recalled items with binary decisions. In both experiments, the UWP effect was absent for both items recalled once and twice. We suggest that the sensitivity of scale JOLs, but not binary judgments, to the number of previous recall successes strengthens the claim of Hanczakowski, Zawadzka, Pasek, and Higham (Journal of Memory and Language 69:429-444, 2013) that scale JOLs reflect confidence in, rather than the subjective probability of, future recall. PMID:26111879

  7. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1988-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z = (z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y(0)=(y sub 1(0),...,y sub D(0)) knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y(0). The data space Y containing y(0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x (e.g., energy or dissipation rate), Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. CSI is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface. Neither the heat flow nor the energy bound is strong enough to permit estimation of B(r) at single points on the CMB, but the heat flow bound permits estimation of uniform averages of B(r) over discs on the CMB, and both bounds permit weighted disc-averages with continous weighting kernels. Both bounds also permit estimation of low-degree Gauss coefficients at the CMB. The heat flow bound resolves them up to degree 8 if the crustal field at satellite altitudes must be treated as a systematic error, but can resolve to degree 11 under the most favorable statistical treatment of the crust. These two limits produce circles of confusion on the CMB with diameters of 25 deg and 19 deg respectively.

  8. Strenghtened nuclear controls - maintaining the confidence for expanding nuclear cooperation

    SciTech Connect

    Burkart, A.R. )

    1992-01-01

    Events in the Gulf during 1990 and 1991 focused the world's attention on Iraq's challenge to the nuclear non-proliferation regime and the forceful response of the United Nations Security Council, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and the coalition partners. The paper will examine recent efforts to strengthen the regime in response to this and other challenges: the upgrading of the nuclear trigger lists, the extension of the control regime to dual-use exports, a renewed use by the IAEA of its special inspection authority under NPT safeguards agreements, a broad review of means to improve the application of safeguards, and a significant expansion of the number of NPT adherents. These efforts recognize the critical role that an effective control regime plays in providing the fundamental underpinning for cooperation in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The paper will also look as such events as the continued internationalization of the nuclear industry, the unprecedented efforts in meeting the safety needs of nuclear power in Eastern Europe, the dramatic growth in technical assistance through the IAEA and other important demonstrations that nuclear cooperation remains an important part of the balance struck in 1953 with the Atoms for Peace initiative.

  9. Confiding About Problems in Marriage and Long-Term Committed Relationships: A National Study.

    PubMed

    Lind Seal, Kirsten; Doherty, William J; Harris, Steven M

    2016-07-01

    This study examined confiding patterns in a national sample of 1000 U.S. adults aged 25-70 to inform the development of an educational program for confidants, called Marital First Responders. Results showed that 73% of U.S. adults have been a confidant to someone with a problem in a marriage or long-term committed relationship. The most common confiding relationship was between friends, followed by siblings. Confidants reported a wide range of problems brought to them, ranging from everyday complaints to serious issues such as infidelity and divorce. Confiders identified the most and least helpful responses. Findings suggest that naturally occurring confiding relationships have considerable potential to be the first level of help for troubled couple relationships. PMID:26201911

  10. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task

    PubMed Central

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  11. Visibility Is Not Equivalent to Confidence in a Low Contrast Orientation Discrimination Task.

    PubMed

    Rausch, Manuel; Zehetleitner, Michael

    2016-01-01

    In several visual tasks, participants report that they feel confident about discrimination responses at a level of stimulation at which they would report not seeing the stimulus. How general and reliable is this effect? We compared subjective reports of discrimination confidence and subjective reports of visibility in an orientation discrimination task with varying stimulus contrast. Participants applied more liberal criteria for subjective reports of discrimination confidence than for visibility. While reports of discrimination confidence were more efficient in predicting trial accuracy than reports of visibility, only reports of visibility but not confidence were associated with stimulus contrast in incorrect trials. It is argued that the distinction between discrimination confidence and visibility can be reconciled with both the partial awareness hypothesis and higher order thought theory. We suggest that consciousness research would benefit from differentiating between subjective reports of visibility and confidence. PMID:27242566

  12. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making.

    PubMed

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E; Lau, Jennifer Y F; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-05-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the 'confidence heuristic'. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. PMID:24650632

  13. Does interaction matter? Testing whether a confidence heuristic can replace interaction in collective decision-making

    PubMed Central

    Bang, Dan; Fusaroli, Riccardo; Tylén, Kristian; Olsen, Karsten; Latham, Peter E.; Lau, Jennifer Y.F.; Roepstorff, Andreas; Rees, Geraint; Frith, Chris D.; Bahrami, Bahador

    2014-01-01

    In a range of contexts, individuals arrive at collective decisions by sharing confidence in their judgements. This tendency to evaluate the reliability of information by the confidence with which it is expressed has been termed the ‘confidence heuristic’. We tested two ways of implementing the confidence heuristic in the context of a collective perceptual decision-making task: either directly, by opting for the judgement made with higher confidence, or indirectly, by opting for the faster judgement, exploiting an inverse correlation between confidence and reaction time. We found that the success of these heuristics depends on how similar individuals are in terms of the reliability of their judgements and, more importantly, that for dissimilar individuals such heuristics are dramatically inferior to interaction. Interaction allows individuals to alleviate, but not fully resolve, differences in the reliability of their judgements. We discuss the implications of these findings for models of confidence and collective decision-making. PMID:24650632

  14. Effects of dance on balance and gait in severe Parkinson disease: A case study

    PubMed Central

    Hackney, Madeleine E.; Earhart, Gammon M.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Dance may improve functional mobility in individuals with mild - moderate Parkinson disease (PD), yet dance effects in severe PD remain unexamined. This study's purpose was to evaluate the feasibility and effects of partnered tango classes on balance, endurance and quality of life in an individual with severe PD. Design: Over 10 weeks, the participant attended 20, 1-hour tango classes for individuals with PD. Balance, walking, and quality of life were evaluated before and after the intervention and at a one-month follow-up in this single case design. Caregiver burden was also assessed at all time points. Results: The participant improved on the Berg balance scale, 6 minute walk test, and functional reach. He reported increased balance confidence and improved quality of life as measured by the Parkinson Disease Questionnaire-39 summary index. Gains were maintained at the one-month follow-up. Caregiver burden increased from baseline immediately post-intervention and at follow-up. Conclusion: Twenty partnered tango lessons improved balance, endurance, balance confidence, and quality of life in a participant with severe PD. This is the first report of the use of dance as rehabilitation for an individual with advanced disease who primarily used a wheelchair for transportation. PMID:20205582

  15. Libra: Scalable Load Balance Analysis

    2009-09-16

    Libra is a tool for scalable analysis of load balance data from all processes in a parallel application. Libra contains an instrumentation module that collects model data from parallel applications and a parallel compression mechanism that uses distributed wavelet transforms to gather load balance model data in a scalable fashion. Data is output to files, and these files can be viewed in a GUI tool by Libra users. The GUI tool associates particular load balancemore » data with regions for code, emabling users to view the load balance properties of distributed "slices" of their application code.« less

  16. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High-Contrast Imaging

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Marois, Christian; Lafrenière, David; Macintosh, Bruce; Doyon, René

    2008-01-01

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground- and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analyses have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follow a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil, this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fixed separation from the point-spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and noncoronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level (CL). In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding CL as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckle noise, a detection threshold up to 3 times higher is required to obtain a CL equivalent to that at 5 σ for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested on data acquired by simultaneous spectral differential imaging with TRIDENT and by angular differential imaging with NIRI. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. Finally, a power law is derived to predict the 1 - 3 × 10-7 CL detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise. Based on observations obtained at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope (CFHT), which is operated by the National Research Council of Canada, the Institut National des Sciences de l'Univers of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France, and the University of

  17. Skylab water balance error analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1977-01-01

    Estimates of the precision of the net water balance were obtained for the entire Skylab preflight and inflight phases as well as for the first two weeks of flight. Quantitative estimates of both total sampling errors and instrumentation errors were obtained. It was shown that measurement error is minimal in comparison to biological variability and little can be gained from improvement in analytical accuracy. In addition, a propagation of error analysis demonstrated that total water balance error could be accounted for almost entirely by the errors associated with body mass changes. Errors due to interaction between terms in the water balance equation (covariances) represented less than 10% of the total error. Overall, the analysis provides evidence that daily measurements of body water changes obtained from the indirect balance technique are reasonable, precise, and relaible. The method is not biased toward net retention or loss.

  18. How Our Balance System Works

    MedlinePlus

    ... from your eyes, the inner ear, and the sensory systems of the body (such as the skin, muscles, ... function? How are vision, the inner ear, and sensory systems impacting functional balance? Some of the tests of ...

  19. Improving Balance with Tai Chi

    MedlinePlus

    ... It emphasizes the intercon- nected nature of the body and mind (Figure 1), combining “physical movement, breathing techniques, and ... and focus. Figure 1. The interconnected nature of body and mind and concept of balance is symbolized by the ...

  20. Laboratory Workhorse: The Analytical Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Clark, Douglas W.

    1979-01-01

    This report explains the importance of various analytical balances in the water or wastewater laboratory. Stressed is the proper procedure for utilizing the equipment as well as the mechanics involved in its operation. (CS)

  1. Cautions Concerning Electronic Analytical Balances.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Bruce B.; Wells, John D.

    1986-01-01

    Cautions chemists to be wary of ferromagnetic samples (especially magnetized samples), stray electromagnetic radiation, dusty environments, and changing weather conditions. These and other conditions may alter readings obtained from electronic analytical balances. (JN)

  2. Aging: Balancing regeneration and cancer

    SciTech Connect

    Beausejour, Christian M.; Campisi, Judith

    2006-08-24

    The proliferation of cells must balance the longevity assured by tissue renewal against the risk of developing cancer. The tumor-suppressor protein p16{sup INK4a} seems to act at the pivot of this delicate equilibrium.

  3. 'Losing my touch': decline in self-reported confidence in performing practical procedures in consultant oncologists.

    PubMed

    Thomson, A H; Foy, C J W; Benstead, K

    2006-08-01

    This study aimed to compare the confidence of oncology consultants and specialist registrars (SpRs) in the performance of practical procedures, to contrast this with confidence in other areas of practice and to determine at what grade they felt most confident. Questionnaires were sent to all 57 oncology consultants and SpRs in the South-West region. Respondents scored confidence on a five-point Likert scale. The response rate was 70%. SpRs were significantly more confident in cardiopulmonary resuscitation (p = 0.003) and central line insertion (p = 0.006). Consultants were significantly more confident in developing management plans (p = 0.001) and performing committee work (p = 0.002). Only 6% of consultants felt most confident performing practical procedures as a consultant, and were less confident about these than other tasks (p = 0.001). Some 86% of SpRs considered they were more confident performing practical procedures as senior house officers (SHOs). In conclusion, self-reported confidence in performing practical procedures declines during career progression in oncology. This raises questions about the teaching and supervision of these procedures. If there is a greater emphasis on a consultant-provided service, their educational needs will need to be recognized and retraining or outsourcing of these procedures to other specialties may be necessary. PMID:16973448

  4. Predictors of self-reported confidence ratings for adult recall of early life sun exposure.

    PubMed

    Relova, Anne-Sharon; Marrett, Loraine D; Klar, Neil; McLaughlin, John R; Ashbury, Fredrick D; Nishri, Diane; Theis, Beth

    2005-07-15

    Use of self-reported confidence ratings may be an efficient method for assessing recall bias. In this exploratory application of the method, the authors examined the relation between case-control status and self-reported confidence ratings. In 2002 and 2003, melanoma cases (n = 141) and controls (n = 143) aged 20-44 years residing in Ontario, Canada, estimated the amounts of time they had spent outdoors in summer activities when they were 6-18 years of age and indicated their confidence in the accuracy of each estimate. The generalized estimating equations extension of logistic regression was used to examine dichotomized confidence ratings (more confident vs. less confident) for activities reported for ages 6-11 years and 12-18 years. Types of activity were associated with more confident reporting for both age strata; as the number of stable outdoor activity periods (total number of similar outdoor periods within each activity) reported by respondents increased, confidence decreased. Cumulative time spent outdoors was also associated with more confidence but reached statistical significance only for the age stratum 12-18 years. There was no statistically significant association between case-control status and self-reported confidence for either age stratum (6-11 years: odds ratio = 0.91; 12-18 years: odds ratio = 1.32), which suggests an absence of recall bias for reported time spent outdoors. PMID:15972935

  5. Walking (Gait), Balance, and Coordination Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... tizanidine are generally effective in treating this symptom. Balance : Balance problems typically result in a swaying and “drunken” ... factors for falls are complex and include: poor balance and slowed walking reduced proprioception (the sensation of ...

  6. Form 6 - gas balancing agreement

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1990-01-01

    In 1988, a special Committee of the Rocky Mountain Mineral Law Foundation undertook a project to draft a model from gas balancing agreement. This project was initiated at the request of a number of Foundation members who felt that a model form gas balancing agreement would facilitate the negotiation of operating agreement, since gas balancing issues had become sticking points in the process. The Committee was composed of attorneys representing a wide cross-section of the oil and gas industry including both major and independent oil companies, production companies with interstate pipeline affiliates, and private practitioners. The Committee attempted to address the more controversial issues in gas balancing with optional provisions in the Form. To facilitate the negotiation process, the number of optional provisions was minimized. This form may be used as an Appendix to the new A.A.P.L. Form 610-1989 Model Form Operating Agreement. This book includes provision of this Form which are: Ownership of gas production; Balancing of production accounts; Cash balancing upon depletion; Deliverability tests; Nominations; Statements; Payment of taxes; Operating expenses; Overproducing allowable; Payment of leasehold burdens; Operator's liability; Successors and assigns; Audits; Arbitration; and Operator's fees.

  7. The effect of confidence and method of questioning on eyewitness testimony.

    PubMed

    Venter, A; Louw, D A

    2005-06-01

    Very often eyewitnesses are perceived as being accurate due to the confidence in the accuracy of their own testimony. The confidence displayed by an eyewitness may possibly be increased by the method of questioning used by legal professionals and police. The present study examines the confidence-accuracy relationship and the effect the method of questioning (open-ended versus closed-ended questions) may have on the confidence of eyewitnesses. The sample of 412 respondents consisted of scholars (11 to 14-year-olds), university students, the public and Police College students. A significant relationship between memory accuracy and confidence was found for more than 70% of the questions. Closed-ended questions provided a significantly higher rate of accuracy than open-ended questions. A significantly larger proportion of respondents to the closed-ended questions were more confident about their answers than those who responded to the open-ended questions. PMID:16082872

  8. Improved confidence intervals when the sample is counted an integer times longer than the blank.

    PubMed

    Potter, William Edward; Strzelczyk, Jadwiga Jodi

    2011-05-01

    Past computer solutions for confidence intervals in paired counting are extended to the case where the ratio of the sample count time to the blank count time is taken to be an integer, IRR. Previously, confidence intervals have been named Neyman-Pearson confidence intervals; more correctly they should have been named Neyman confidence intervals or simply confidence intervals. The technique utilized mimics a technique used by Pearson and Hartley to tabulate confidence intervals for the expected value of the discrete Poisson and Binomial distributions. The blank count and the contribution of the sample to the gross count are assumed to be Poisson distributed. The expected value of the blank count, in the sample count time, is assumed known. The net count, OC, is taken to be the gross count minus the product of IRR with the blank count. The probability density function (PDF) for the net count can be determined in a straightforward manner. PMID:21451310

  9. Mesolimbic confidence signals guide perceptual learning in the absence of external feedback.

    PubMed

    Guggenmos, Matthias; Wilbertz, Gregor; Hebart, Martin N; Sterzer, Philipp

    2016-01-01

    It is well established that learning can occur without external feedback, yet normative reinforcement learning theories have difficulties explaining such instances of learning. Here, we propose that human observers are capable of generating their own feedback signals by monitoring internal decision variables. We investigated this hypothesis in a visual perceptual learning task using fMRI and confidence reports as a measure for this monitoring process. Employing a novel computational model in which learning is guided by confidence-based reinforcement signals, we found that mesolimbic brain areas encoded both anticipation and prediction error of confidence-in remarkable similarity to previous findings for external reward-based feedback. We demonstrate that the model accounts for choice and confidence reports and show that the mesolimbic confidence prediction error modulation derived through the model predicts individual learning success. These results provide a mechanistic neurobiological explanation for learning without external feedback by augmenting reinforcement models with confidence-based feedback. PMID:27021283

  10. Enhancing the Robustness of the Posterior-Based Confidence Measures Using Entropy Information for Speech Recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sun, Yanqing; Zhou, Yu; Zhao, Qingwei; Zhang, Pengyuan; Pan, Fuping; Yan, Yonghong

    In this paper, the robustness of the posterior-based confidence measures is improved by utilizing entropy information, which is calculated for speech-unit-level posteriors using only the best recognition result, without requiring a larger computational load than conventional methods. Using different normalization methods, two posterior-based entropy confidence measures are proposed. Practical details are discussed for two typical levels of hidden Markov model (HMM)-based posterior confidence measures, and both levels are compared in terms of their performances. Experiments show that the entropy information results in significant improvements in the posterior-based confidence measures. The absolute improvements of the out-of-vocabulary (OOV) rejection rate are more than 20% for both the phoneme-level confidence measures and the state-level confidence measures for our embedded test sets, without a significant decline of the in-vocabulary accuracy.

  11. Effectiveness of a computerized educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence level related to diabetes.

    PubMed

    Eaton-Spiva, Leeanna; Day, Angela

    2011-01-01

    A descriptive, quasi-experimental design, one-group pretest-posttest method was used to assess perceptions of nurses' knowledge in diabetes care and confidence in teaching diabetes education and to examine the effectiveness of a computer-based learning educational module on nurses' knowledge and confidence related to diabetes. Nurses had a slight improvement in knowledge, skill, and confidence related to diabetes after the computer-based learning intervention, but no statistically significant differences were found. PMID:22108067

  12. Importance of Building Confidence in Patient Communication and Clinical Skills Among Chiropractic Students

    PubMed Central

    Hecimovich, Mark D.; Volet, Simone E.

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: One important objective of chiropractic education is to foster student professional confidence and competence in patient communication and clinical skills. Therefore, the aim of this article is to review the extant literature on this topic, stressing the significance of building students' confidence for effective practice and the need for more research in this area. Methods: The authors reviewed MEDLINE and ERIC from 1980 through 2008 using several key words pertinent to confidence and health care. Three distinct, but interrelated, bodies of literature were assessed, including professional confidence in health care research, the nature and development of confidence in educational psychology research, and fostering professional confidence in chiropractic education. Results: It was apparent through the review that chiropractic education has developed educational methods and opportunities that may help develop and build student confidence in patient communication and clinical skills. However, there has not been sufficient research to provide empirical evidence of the impact. Conclusion: Fostering chiropractic students' development of confidence in what they say and do is of paramount importance not only to them as new practitioners but more importantly to the patient. There is no doubt that a better understanding of how confidence can be developed and consolidated during tertiary study should be a major goal of chiropractic education PMID:19826543

  13. A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence

    PubMed Central

    van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2016-01-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.12192.001 PMID:26829590

  14. Balancing act: the ultimate balance nutrition consulting center.

    PubMed

    Engle, L

    1998-11-01

    Nutritional issues often complicate health care but are very important in HIV treatment where diet can play a strong role in drug absorption and effectiveness. A Canadian company has started a for-fee nutritional counseling service called Ultimate Balance. The nutritionists at Ultimate Balance require medical disclosure and extensive telephone interviews with patients, and also review patients' cases and medications. The nutritional guidance provided is controversial, because it is funded by a company that produces nutritional supplements, and counselors sometimes recommend those supplements. A personal experience with the nutritional counseling service is described. Contact information is provided. PMID:11365979

  15. Analysis of regression confidence intervals and Bayesian credible intervals for uncertainty quantification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lu, Dan; Ye, Ming; Hill, Mary C.

    2012-09-01

    Confidence intervals based on classical regression theories augmented to include prior information and credible intervals based on Bayesian theories are conceptually different ways to quantify parametric and predictive uncertainties. Because both confidence and credible intervals are used in environmental modeling, we seek to understand their differences and similarities. This is of interest in part because calculating confidence intervals typically requires tens to thousands of model runs, while Bayesian credible intervals typically require tens of thousands to millions of model runs. Given multi-Gaussian distributed observation errors, our theoretical analysis shows that, for linear or linearized-nonlinear models, confidence and credible intervals are always numerically identical when consistent prior information is used. For nonlinear models, nonlinear confidence and credible intervals can be numerically identical if parameter confidence regions defined using the approximate likelihood method and parameter credible regions estimated using Markov chain Monte Carlo realizations are numerically identical and predictions are a smooth, monotonic function of the parameters. Both occur if intrinsic model nonlinearity is small. While the conditions of Gaussian errors and small intrinsic model nonlinearity are violated by many environmental models, heuristic tests using analytical and numerical models suggest that linear and nonlinear confidence intervals can be useful approximations of uncertainty even under significantly nonideal conditions. In the context of epistemic model error for a complex synthetic nonlinear groundwater problem, the linear and nonlinear confidence and credible intervals for individual models performed similarly enough to indicate that the computationally frugal confidence intervals can be useful in many circumstances. Experiences with these groundwater models are expected to be broadly applicable to many environmental models. We suggest that for

  16. BALANCER: A Computer Program for Balancing Chemical Equations.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jones, R. David; Schwab, A. Paul

    1989-01-01

    Describes the theory and operation of a computer program which was written to balance chemical equations. Software consists of a compiled file of 46K for use under MS-DOS 2.0 or later on IBM PC or compatible computers. Additional specifications of courseware and availability information are included. (Author/RT)

  17. Decisional balance: Alcohol decisional balance intervention for heavy drinking undergraduates

    PubMed Central

    2015-01-01

    Background This study evaluated a decisional balance intervention among heavy drinking undergraduates and compared a non-weighted decisional balance proportion (DBP; Collins, Carey, & Otto, 2009) to a participant-weighted DBP with weights based on relative importance of items. We expected: 1) the intervention to decrease drinking compared to control; 2) the weighted intervention to be more effective compared to the non-weighted or control in reducing drinking; and 3) intervention efficacy to be moderated by initial DBP. Method Participants (N =162, Mean age = 24.37, SD = 6.81, 27% male) were randomly assigned to an alcohol intervention wherein they were either asked to assign weights of importance to pros and cons (weighted intervention), or not (non-weighted intervention), or to control. Participants completed web-based questionnaires at baseline and again during a one month follow-up assessment. Results Consistent with expectations, the non-weighted intervention was associated with reduced follow-up weekly drinking, and the weighted intervention was associated with reductions in drinking frequency. Results further indicated that initial decisional balance did not moderate intervention efficacy. Discussion Findings suggest that the decisional balance procedure can reduce drinking but there was not compelling evidence for the addition of weights. This study lays the groundwork for enhancing future interventions by increasing empirical knowledge of the role motivation plays in heavy alcohol use. PMID:26555004

  18. Heider balance in human networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Gawroński, P.; Kułakowski, K.

    2005-07-01

    Recently, a continuous dynamics was proposed to simulate dynamics of interpersonal relations in a society represented by a fully connected graph. The final state of such a society was found to be identical with the so-called Heider balance (HB), where the society is divided into two mutually hostile groups. In the continuous model, a polarization of opinions was found in HB. Here we demonstrate that the polarization occurs also in Barabási-Albert networks, where the Heider balance is not necessarily present. In the second part of this work we demonstrate the results of our formalism, when applied to reference examples: the Southern women and the Zachary club.

  19. Current balancing for battery strings

    DOEpatents

    Galloway, James H.

    1985-01-01

    A battery plant is described which features magnetic circuit means for balancing the electrical current flow through a pluraliircuitbattery strings which are connected electrically in parallel. The magnetic circuit means is associated with the battery strings such that the conductors carrying the electrical current flow through each of the battery strings pass through the magnetic circuit means in directions which cause the electromagnetic fields of at least one predetermined pair of the conductors to oppose each other. In an alternative embodiment, a low voltage converter is associated with each of the battery strings for balancing the electrical current flow through the battery strings.

  20. 40 CFR 35.518 - Unexpended balances.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-07-01

    ... 40 Protection of Environment 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Unexpended balances. 35.518 Section 35... Unexpended balances. Subject to any relevant provisions of law, if a recipient's final Financial Status Report shows unexpended balances, the Regional Administrator will deobligate the unexpended balances...