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Sample records for activities-specific balance confidence

  1. Activities-Specific Balance Confidence in People with Multiple Sclerosis

    PubMed Central

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1–6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Gocog, 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to −0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society. PMID:22919491

  2. Activities-specific balance confidence in people with multiple sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Nilsagård, Ylva; Carling, Anna; Forsberg, Anette

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To evaluate the validity of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC) in people with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). Design. A multicentre, cross-sectional study. Setting. Six rural and urban Swedish sites, including specialized units at hospitals and primary care centers. Participants. A sample of 84 PwMS with subjective gait and balance impairment but still able to walk 100 m (comparable with EDSS 1-6). Outcome Measures. Timed Up and Go, Timed Up and Go(cog), 25-foot Timed Walk Test, Four Square Step Test, Dynamic Gait Index, Chair Stand Test, 12-item MS Walking Scale, self-reported falls, and use of assistive walking device were used for validation. Results. The concurrent convergent validity was moderate to good (0.50 to -0.75) with the highest correlation found for the 12-item MS Walking Scale. The ABC discriminated between multiple fallers and nonfallers but not between men and women. Ecological validity is suggested since ABC discriminated between users of assistive walking device and nonusers. The internal consistency was high at α = 0.95, and interitem correlations were between 0.30 and 0.83. Conclusion. This study supports the validity of the ABC for persons with mild-to-moderate MS. The participants lacked balance confidence in many everyday activities, likely restricting their participation in society.

  3. Reliability of the Chinese Version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale

    PubMed Central

    Hsu, Priscilla C.; Miller, William C.

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To translate the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale into a Chinese version and assess the reliability between Chinese versions and between Chinese and English versions of this outcome measure. Method Descriptive study using a 4-week test-retest design. Data were collected from a convenience sample of community living Chinese immigrants. Of the 79 participants, data from 71 subjects were included in the analysis. Two subsamples were formed to assess the reliability between Chinese versions (n=33) and between Chinese and English versions (n=38) of the scale. Results Internal consistency of the ABC was 0.98. Test-retest reliability was ICC=0.87 (95% CI, 0.76–0.93) for the Chinese versions and ICC = 0.88 (95% CI, 0.78–0.94) for Chinese and English versions. The total group ICC=.90 (95% CI, 0.84–0.94). Conclusions Balance confidence has been identified as an important area for clinical and research inquiry however collecting this information from Chinese speaking individuals has been limited by a lack of language specific measures. The Chinese version of the ABC has demonstrated acceptable measurement properties in this sample and should permit measurement of this unique construct in the Chinese population. PMID:17083176

  4. The activities-specific balance confidence scale and berg balance scale: Reliability and validity in Arabic-speaking vestibular patients.

    PubMed

    Alghwiri, Alia A; Alghadir, Ahmad H; Al-Momani, Murad O; Whitney, Susan L

    2016-01-01

    Persons with vestibular disorders are susceptible to imbalance. The Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and Berg Balance Scale (BBS) have been validated in persons with vestibular disorders. The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability and validity of the Arabic versions of ABC and BBS among Arabic-speaking persons with vestibular disorders in Jordan and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, the A-ABC and A-BBS were administered to a convenience sample of 82 persons with vestibular disorders (age = 43 ± 14), (56% female). The test-retest reliability of the A-ABC item and total score as well as the inter-rater and intra-rater reliability of the A-BBS total score reflected high agreement. Significant and large correlations were found between the A-ABC and the A-BBS (r= 0.54, P< 0.05), the A-ABC and the Arabic Dizziness Handicap Inventory (A-DHI) (r= -0.76, P< 0.05), and the A-BBS and the A-DHI (r= -0.56, P< 0.05). The A-ABC and the A-BBS demonstrated good reliability and validity and can be utilized with Arabic-speaking persons with vestibular disorders.

  5. Reliability, Validity, and Sensitivity to Change of Turkish Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale in Patients with Unilateral Peripheral Vestibular Disease

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Karapolat, Hale; Eyigor, Sibel; Kirazli, Yesim; Celebisoy, Nese; Bilgen, Cem; Kirazli, Tayfun

    2010-01-01

    The aim of this study is to evaluate the internal consistency, test-retest reliability, construct validity, and sensitivity to change of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale (ABC) in people with peripheral vestibular disorder. Thirty-three patients with unilateral peripheral vestibular disease were included in the study. Patients were…

  6. Validity and Reliability of the Swedish Version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale in People with Chronic Stroke.

    PubMed

    Forsberg, Anette; Nilsagård, Ylva

    2013-01-01

    Objectif : Évaluer la validité et la fiabilité de la version suédoise de l'échelle ABC (Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale) de confiance de la personne en son équilibre associé à des gestes de la vie quotidienne chez les personnes >1 an après un AVC. Concept : Collecte initiale de données transversales multicentres avec suivi à l'aide de l'échelle ABC en Suède. Méthode : Un test de locomotion TUG (timed up-and-go), 10 mètres de marche chronométrée (10MWT) et un test de marche de 6 minutes (6MWT) ont été effectués; une évaluation à l'échelle ABC et le questionnaire Short Form 36 Health Survey (SF-36) ont été réalisés; des données sur l'historique des chutes ont aussi été recueillies au cours d'une séance. Une semaine plus tard, l'échelle ABC a été envoyée aux participants pour une deuxième évaluation. Les coefficients de corrélation de Spearman ont été calculés, et la fiabilité a été évaluée à l'aide du coefficient de corrélation intraclasse (CCI) et du coefficient alpha de Cronbach. Résultats : Un échantillon de commodité de 67 personnes a été inclus (âge moyen: 68 ans). Le pointage moyen à l'échelle ABC est passé de 57 à la première évaluation à 43 lors de la seconde; 19 participants (28%) ont signalé des chutes au cours des trois mois précédents. Les pointages à l'échelle ABC affichaient une corrélation modérée avec le test TUG (r=0,48), le 10 MWT (r=0,52), avec le 6MWT (r=0,45) et avec le pointage sommaire de la composante physique du questionnaire SF-36 (r=0,43). La cohérence interne était élevée pour l'échelle ABC au test-retest (α=0,95–0,97). Le CCI était de 0,82 (I.C. de 95%, 0,72–0,88). Conclusions. La version suédoise de l'échelle ABC constitue un outil de mesure valable et fiable pour sonder la confiance en son équilibre chez les personnes >1 an après un AVC.

  7. Predicting falls within the elderly community: comparison of postural sway, reaction time, the Berg balance scale and the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale for comparing fallers and non-fallers.

    PubMed

    Lajoie, Y; Gallagher, S P

    2004-01-01

    Simple reaction time, the Berg balance scale, the Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and postural sway were studied in order to determine cut-off scores as well as develop a model used in the prevention of fallers within the elderly community. One hundred and twenty-five subjects, 45 fallers and 80 non-fallers were evaluated throughout the study and results indicated that non-fallers have significantly faster reaction times, have higher scores on the Berg balance scale and the ABC scale as well as sway at slower frequencies when compared to fallers. Furthermore, all risk factors were subsequently entered into a logistic regression analysis and results showed that reaction time, the total Berg score and the total ABC score contributed significantly to the prediction of falls with 89% sensitivity and 96% specificity. A second logistic regression was carried out with the same previous variables as well as all questions of the Berg and ABC scales. Results from the logistic analysis revealed that three variables were associated with fall status with 91% sensitivity and 97% specificity. Results from the following study would seem rather valuable as an assessment tool for health care professionals in the identification and monitoring of potential fallers within nursing homes and throughout the community.

  8. Balance and Gait Training With Augmented Feedback Improves Balance Confidence in People With Parkinson's Disease: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

    PubMed

    Shen, Xia; Mak, Margaret K Y

    2014-07-01

    Background Fear of falling has been identified as an important and independent fall-risk predictor in patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). However, there are inconsistent findings on the effects of balance and gait training on balance confidence. Objective To explore whether balance and gait training with augmented feedback can enhance balance confidence in PD patients immediately after treatment and at 3- and 12-month follow-ups. Methods A total of 51 PD patients were randomly assigned to a balance and gait training (BAL) group or to an active control (CON) group. The BAL group received balance and gait training with augmented feedback, whereas CON participants received lower-limb strength training for 12 weeks. Outcome measures included Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale, limits-of-stability test, single-leg-stance test, and spatiotemporal gait characteristics. All tests were administered before intervention (Pre), immediately after training (Post), and at 3 months (Post3m) and 12 months (Post12m) after treatment completion. Results The ABC score improved marginally at Post and significantly at Post3m and Post12m only in the BAL group (P < .017). Both participant groups increased their end point excursion at Post, but only the BAL group maintained the improvement at Post3m. The BAL group maintained significantly longer time-to-loss-of-balance during the single-leg stance test than the CON group at Post3m and Post12m (P < .05). For gait characteristics, both participant groups increased gait velocity, but only the BAL group increased stride length at Post, Post3m, and Post12m (P < .017). Conclusions Positive findings from this study provide evidence that BAL with augmented feedback could enhance balance confidence and balance and gait performance in patients with PD.

  9. Relationships between fear of falling, balance confidence, and control of balance, gait, and reactive stepping in individuals with sub-acute stroke.

    PubMed

    Schinkel-Ivy, Alison; Inness, Elizabeth L; Mansfield, Avril

    2016-01-01

    Fear of falling is common in individuals with stroke; however, the associations between fear of falling, balance confidence, and the control of balance and gait are not well understood for this population. This study aimed to determine whether, at the time of admission to in-patient rehabilitation, specific features of balance and gait differed between individuals with stroke who did and did not report fear of falling, and whether these features were related to balance confidence. Individuals with stroke entering in-patient rehabilitation were asked if they were afraid of falling, and completed the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale. Participants performed quiet standing, gait, and reactive stepping tasks, and specific measures were extracted for each (quiet standing: centre of pressure amplitude, between-limb synchronization, and Romberg quotients; gait: walking velocity, double support time, and variability measures; reactive stepping: number of steps, frequency of grasp reactions, and frequency of assists). No significant differences were identified between individuals with and without fear of falling. Balance confidence was negatively related to centre of pressure amplitude, double support time, and step time variability, and positively related to walking velocity. Low balance confidence was related to poor quiet standing balance control and cautious behavior when walking in individuals with sub-acute stroke. While the causal relationship between balance confidence and the control of balance and gait is unclear from the current work, these findings suggest there may be a role for interventions to increase balance confidence among individuals with stroke, in order to improve functional mobility.

  10. The Relationship Between Balance Confidence and Cognitive Motor Interference in Individuals With Multiple Sclerosis.

    PubMed

    Wajda, Douglas A; Roeing, Kathleen L; McAuley, Edward; Motl, Robert W; Sosnoff, Jacob J

    2016-01-01

    Gait and cognitive impairments are compounded when performed simultaneously in individuals with multiple sclerosis (MS), and this is termed cognitive-motor interference (CMI). The authors examined whether CMI is related to balance confidence in individuals with MS. They hypothesized that individuals with low balance confidence would exhibit greater CMI possibly indicating a behavioral modification during dual task conditions. Thirty-four individuals with MS completed Activity-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale and a cognitive assessment as well as single and dual task walking trials at a comfortable pace. CMI was calculated as the percent change in walking velocity and cognitive task performance from single- to dual-task conditions and termed dual-task cost (DTC). A correlation analysis was performed to determine the relationships between DTCs of gait and cognitive performance and ABC scores. The correlation analysis revealed no significant association between ABC and DTC of walking velocity (p > .05). A significant relationship between balance confidence and DTCs of cognition was observed. The observed relationships suggest individuals with MS tend to alter their cognitive performance rather than manipulating their gait when confronted with a dual task. Overall, the findings partially support a behavioral explanation of CMI in individuals with MS.

  11. Functional Mobility Performance and Balance Confidence in Older Adults after Sensorimotor Adaptation Training

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Buccello-Stout, Regina R.; Cromwell, Ronita L.; Bloomberg, Jacob J.; Weaver, G. D.

    2010-01-01

    Research indicates a main contributor of injury in older adults is from falling. The decline in sensory systems limits information needed to successfully maneuver through the environment. The objective of this study was to determine if prolonged exposure to the realignment of perceptual-motor systems increases adaptability of balance, and if balance confidence improves after training. A total of 16 older adults between ages 65-85 were randomized to a control group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a static visual scene) and an experimental group (walking on a treadmill while viewing a rotating visual scene). Prior to visual exposure, participants completed six trials of walking through a soft foamed obstacle course. Participants came in twice a week for 4 weeks to complete training of walking on a treadmill and viewing the visual scene for 20 minutes each session. Participants completed the obstacle course after training and four weeks later. Average time, penalty, and Activity Balance Confidence Scale scores were computed for both groups across testing times. The older adults who trained, significantly improved their time through the obstacle course F (2, 28) = 9.41, p < 0.05, as well as reduced their penalty scores F (2, 28) = 21.03, p < 0.05, compared to those who did not train. There was no difference in balance confidence scores between groups across testing times F (2, 28) = 0.503, p > 0.05. Although the training group improved mobility through the obstacle course, there were no differences between the groups in balance confidence.

  12. Effect of a community-based Argentine tango dance program on functional balance and confidence in older adults.

    PubMed

    McKinley, Patricia; Jacobson, Allison; Leroux, Alain; Bednarczyk, Victoria; Rossignol, Michel; Fung, Joyce

    2008-10-01

    Tango-dancing and walking programs are compared in nondemented seniors at risk for falls. Fallers (N = 30) age 62-91 were randomly assigned to a 10-wk (40 hr, 2 hr 2x/wk) tango class or walk group. The Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) scale, sit-to-stand scores, and normal and fast walk were measured pre-, post-, and 1 month postintervention. Two-way repeated-measures ANOVAs indicated a significant main effect (p < .01) for time on all measures. Group and interaction effects for ABC led to improvement only in tango because of high baseline mean for the walk group. Clinical improvements measured using Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly scoring were greater for the tango group. From these preliminary results it is suggested that although both interventions are effective activities for increasing strength and walk speed, tango might result in greater improvements than walking in balance skills and in walking speed in the 10-wk intervention. The study needs to be repeated with a greater sample size to determine the effectiveness of walking on fear of falling.

  13. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions

    PubMed Central

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A.

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents’ opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a “left clique” and a “right clique”. In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties. PMID:27716815

  14. Bounded Confidence under Preferential Flip: A Coupled Dynamics of Structural Balance and Opinions.

    PubMed

    Parravano, Antonio; Andina-Díaz, Ascensión; Meléndez-Jiménez, Miguel A

    2016-01-01

    In this work we study the coupled dynamics of social balance and opinion formation. We propose a model where agents form opinions under bounded confidence, but only considering the opinions of their friends. The signs of social ties -friendships and enmities- evolve seeking for social balance, taking into account how similar agents' opinions are. We consider both the case where opinions have one and two dimensions. We find that our dynamics produces the segregation of agents into two cliques, with the opinions of agents in one clique differing from those in the other. Depending on the level of bounded confidence, the dynamics can produce either consensus of opinions within each clique or the coexistence of several opinion clusters in a clique. For the uni-dimensional case, the opinions in one clique are all below the opinions in the other clique, hence defining a "left clique" and a "right clique". In the two-dimensional case, our numerical results suggest that the two cliques are separated by a hyperplane in the opinion space. We also show that the phenomenon of unidimensional opinions identified by DeMarzo, Vayanos and Zwiebel (Q J Econ 2003) extends partially to our dynamics. Finally, in the context of politics, we comment about the possible relation of our results to the fragmentation of an ideology and the emergence of new political parties.

  15. Role of balance ability and confidence in prosthetic use for mobility of people with lower-limb loss.

    PubMed

    Wong, Christopher Kevin; Chen, Christine C; Benoy, Stephany A; Rahal, Rana T; Blackwell, Wren M

    2014-01-01

    For people with lower-limb loss, impaired balance is common and limits prosthetic function within the community. This cross-sectional study (1) analyzed relationships among prosthetic use for mobility, balance ability and confidence, and amputation-related variables and (2) determined multivariate models to identify level of prosthetic use. Subjects included 46 community-dwelling adults (mean age 56.2 yr) with limb loss (91.3% unilateral) of varied levels (52.2% transtibial) and etiologies (69.6% vascular). A three-variable linear regression model including balance ability, balance confidence, and years since amputation explained 63.7% of variance in the Houghton scale of prosthetic use score. A logistic regression model including the 14-task Berg Balance Scale, balance confidence, years since amputation, age, and number of comorbidities correctly differentiated between people who had reached a satisfactory level of prosthetic use or not 89.1% of the time. The first three variables demonstrated moderate accuracy with positive likelihood ratios from 2.34 to 4.35. The regression model was further reduced to correctly classify 87.0% of cases with three balance ability tasks (retrieving objects from floor, turning to look behind, and placing alternate foot on stool), balance confidence, and numbers of comorbidities. Logistic models that include balance ability, balance confidence, and numbers of comorbidities can identify level of prosthetic use in people with lower-limb loss. Increased balance confidence and ability when retrieving objects from floor, turning to look behind, and placing alternate foot on stool were most indicative of successful prosthetic use for mobility.

  16. The impact of knee instability with and without buckling on balance confidence, fear of falling and physical function: the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study

    PubMed Central

    Nguyen, U.-S.D.T.; Felson, D.T.; Niu, J.; White, D.K.; Segal, N.A.; Lewis, C.E.; Rasmussen, M.; Nevitt, M.C.

    2014-01-01

    SUMMARY Objective Knee buckling, in which a knee gives way during weight-bearing, is common in people with knee pain and knee osteoarthritis (OA), but little is known about the prevalence of sensations of knee instability, slipping or shifting in which the knee does not actually buckle, or of the psychosocial and physical consequences of these symptoms. Design We asked participants in the Multicenter Osteoarthritis Study (MOST) separately about episodes of knee buckling and sensations of knee instability without buckling in the past 3 months, and assessed fear of falling, poor balance confidence (Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale ≤ 67/100), activity limitation due to concern about buckling, and poor physical function (Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) physical function ≥ 28/68). We used Poisson regression to estimate prevalence ratios (PRs) for cross-sectional associations of buckling and sensations of instability without buckling with these outcomes, adjusting for confounders. Results Of 2120 participants (60% female, 40% ≥ 65 years, mean Body mass index (BMI): 31 kg/m258), 18% reported buckling, 27% had sensations of knee instability without buckling, and 9% reported both symptoms. Buckling and sensations of instability without buckling were each significantly associated with fear of falling, poor balance confidence, activity limitations, and poor WOMAC physical function. Subjects who reported both buckling and instability without buckling and those with at least two buckling episodes (15%) had the strongest association with poor outcomes. Conclusions Knee buckling and especially sensations of knee instability without buckling were common and each was significantly associated with fear of falling, poor balance confidence, activity limitations, and poor physical function. PMID:24508777

  17. Improved Balance Confidence and Stability for Elderly After 6 Weeks of a Multimodal Self-Administered Balance-Enhancing Exercise Program

    PubMed Central

    Hafström, Anna; Malmström, Eva-Maj; Terdèn, Josefine; Fransson, Per-Anders; Magnusson, Måns

    2016-01-01

    Objective: To develop and assess the efficacy of a multimodal balance-enhancing exercise program (BEEP) designed to be regularly self-administered by community-dwelling elderly. The program aims to promote sensory reweighting, facilitate motor control, improve gaze stabilization, and stimulate continuous improvement by being constantly challenging. Method: Forty participants aged 60 to 80 years performed 6 weeks of BEEP training, on average for 16 min four times weekly, in a randomized one-arm crossover design. Results: One-leg standing time improved 32% with eyes open (EO), 206% with eyes closed (EC) on solid surface, and 54% EO on compliant surface (p < .001). Posturography confirmed balance improvements when perturbed on solid and compliant surfaces with EO and EC (p ≤ .033). Walking, step stool, and Timed Up and Go speeds increased (p ≤ .001), as did scores in Berg Balance and balance confidence scales (p ≤ .018). Discussion: Multimodal balance exercises offer an efficient, cost-effective way to improve balance control and confidence in elderly. PMID:28138495

  18. A threshold theory account of psychometric functions with response confidence under the balance condition.

    PubMed

    Hsu, Yung-Fong; Doble, Christopher W

    2015-02-01

    The study of thresholds for discriminability has been of long-standing interest in psychophysics. While threshold theories embrace the concept of discrete-state thresholds, signal detection theory discounts such a concept. In this paper we concern ourselves with the concept of thresholds from the discrete-state modelling viewpoint. In doing so, we find it necessary to clarify some fundamental issues germane to the psychometric function (PF), which is customarily constructed using psychophysical methods with a binary-response format. We challenge this response format and argue that response confidence also plays an important role in the construction of PFs, and thus should have some impact on threshold estimation. We motivate the discussion by adopting a three-state threshold theory for response confidence proposed by Krantz (1969, Psychol. Rev., 76, 308-324), which is a modification of Luce's (1963, Psychol. Rev., 70, 61-79) low-threshold theory. In particular, we discuss the case in which the practice of averaging over order (or position) is enforced in data collection. Finally, we illustrate the fit of the Luce-Krantz model to data from a line-discrimination task with response confidence.

  19. Analysis of confidence in continental-scale groundwater recharge estimates for Africa using a distributed water balance model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Mackay, Jonathan; Mansour, Majdi; Bonsor, Helen; Pachocka, Magdalena; Wang, Lei; MacDonald, Alan; Macdonald, David; Bloomfield, John

    2014-05-01

    There is a growing need for improved access to reliable water in Africa as population and food production increases. Currently approximately 300 million people do not have access to a secure source of safe drinking water. To meet these current and future demands, groundwater will need to be increasingly abstracted; groundwater is more reliable than surface water sources due to its relatively long response time to meteorological stresses and therefore is likely to be a more secure water resource in a more variable climate. Recent studies also quantified the volumes of groundwater potentially available which suggest that, if exploited, groundwater could help to meet the demand for fresh water. However, there is still considerable uncertainty as to how these resources may respond in the future due to changes in groundwater recharge and abstraction. Understanding and quantifying groundwater recharge is vital as it forms a primary indicator of the sustainability of underlying groundwater resources. Computational hydrological models provide a means to do this, but the complexity of recharge processes in Africa mean that these simulations are often highly uncertain. This study aims to evaluate our confidence in simulating groundwater recharge over Africa based on a sensitivity analysis using a distributed hydrological model developed by the British Geological Survey, ZOODRM. The model includes land surface, canopy, river, soil and groundwater components. Each component is able to exchange water and as such, forms a distributed water balance of Africa. The components have been parameterised using available spatial datasets of African vegetation, land-use, soil and hydrogeology while the remaining parameters have been estimated by calibrating the model to available river flow data. Continental-scale gridded precipitation and potential evapotranspiration datasets, based on remotely sensed and ground observations, have been used to force the model. Following calibration, the

  20. Wii Fit balance training or progressive balance training in patients with chronic stroke: a randomised controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Yatar, Gozde Iyigun; Yildirim, Sibel Aksu

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to compare the effects of Wii Fit balance training (WBT) and progressive balance training (PBT) approaches on balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living in chronic stroke patients. [Subjects] A total of 30 patients were randomized into the WBT (n=15) and PBT (n=15) groups. [Methods] All of the subjects received exercise training based on a neurodevelopemental approach in addition to either Wii Fit or progressive balance training for total of 1 hour a day, 3 days per week for 4 weeks. Primary measurements were static balance function measured with a Wii Balance Board and dynamic balance function assessed with the Berg Balance Scale, Timed Up and Go test, Dynamic Gait Index, and Functional Reach Test. Secondary measures were balance confidence assessed with the Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale and activities of daily living evaluated with the Frenchay Activity Index. [Results] There was not remarkable difference between the two treatments in dynamic balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living. [Conclusion] Although both of the approaches were found to be effective in improving the balance functions, balance confidence, and activities of daily living, neither of them were more preferable than the other for the treatment of balance in patients with chronic stroke. PMID:25995576

  1. BALANCE

    DOEpatents

    Carmichael, H.

    1953-01-01

    A torsional-type analytical balance designed to arrive at its equilibrium point more quickly than previous balances is described. In order to prevent external heat sources creating air currents inside the balance casing that would reiard the attainment of equilibrium conditions, a relatively thick casing shaped as an inverted U is placed over the load support arms and the balance beam. This casing is of a metal of good thernnal conductivity characteristics, such as copper or aluminum, in order that heat applied to one portion of the balance is quickly conducted to all other sensitive areas, thus effectively preventing the fornnation of air currents caused by unequal heating of the balance.

  2. Balancing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Harteveld, Casper

    At many occasions we are asked to achieve a “balance” in our lives: when it comes, for example, to work and food. Balancing is crucial in game design as well as many have pointed out. In games with a meaningful purpose, however, balancing is remarkably different. It involves the balancing of three different worlds, the worlds of Reality, Meaning, and Play. From the experience of designing Levee Patroller, I observed that different types of tensions can come into existence that require balancing. It is possible to conceive of within-worlds dilemmas, between-worlds dilemmas, and trilemmas. The first, the within-world dilemmas, only take place within one of the worlds. We can think, for example, of a user interface problem which just relates to the world of Play. The second, the between-worlds dilemmas, have to do with a tension in which two worlds are predominantly involved. Choosing between a cartoon or a realistic style concerns, for instance, a tension between Reality and Play. Finally, the trilemmas are those in which all three worlds play an important role. For each of the types of tensions, I will give in this level a concrete example from the development of Levee Patroller. Although these examples come from just one game, I think the examples can be exemplary for other game development projects as they may represent stereotypical tensions. Therefore, to achieve harmony in any of these forthcoming games, it is worthwhile to study the struggles we had to deal with.

  3. Confidence building

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Roederer, Juan G.

    Many conferences are being held on confidence building in many countries. Usually they are organized and attended by political scientists and science policy specialists. A remarkable exception, in which the main brainstorming was done by “grass roots” geophysicists, nuclear physicists, engineers and ecologists, was a meeting in July at St. John's College in Santa Fe, N. Mex.The aim of the conference Technology-Based Confidence Building: Energy and Environment was to survey programs of international cooperation in pertinent areas of mutual concern to all nations and to identify new initiatives that could contribute to enhanced international stability, with emphasis on cooperation between the U.S. and U.S.S.R.

  4. Confidence rating for eutrophication assessments.

    PubMed

    Brockmann, Uwe H; Topcu, Dilek H

    2014-05-15

    Confidence of monitoring data is dependent on their variability and representativeness of sampling in space and time. Whereas variability can be assessed as statistical confidence limits, representative sampling is related to equidistant sampling, considering gradients or changing rates at sampling gaps. By the proposed method both aspects are combined, resulting in balanced results for examples of total nitrogen concentrations in the German Bight/North Sea. For assessing sampling representativeness surface areas, vertical profiles and time periods are divided into regular sections for which individually the representativeness is calculated. The sums correspond to the overall representativeness of sampling in the defined area/time period. Effects of not sampled sections are estimated along parallel rows by reducing their confidence, considering their distances to next sampled sections and the interrupted gradients/changing rates. Confidence rating of time sections is based on maximum differences of sampling rates at regular time steps and related means of concentrations.

  5. Confidence Trick: The Interpretation of Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2014-01-01

    The frequent misinterpretation of the nature of confidence intervals by students has been well documented. This article examines the problem as an aspect of the learning of mathematical definitions and considers the tension between parroting mathematically rigorous, but essentially uninternalized, statements on the one hand and expressing…

  6. Computing Confidence Limits

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Biggs, Robert E.

    1991-01-01

    Confidence Limits Program (CLP) calculates upper and lower confidence limits associated with observed outcome of N independent trials with M occurrences of event of interest. Calculates probability of event of interest for confidence levels of 50, 55, 60, 65, 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 96, 97, 98, and 99 percent. Provides graphical presentation of all limits and how they relate to maximum-likelihood value. Written in IBM PC BASIC.

  7. Understanding Academic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2006-01-01

    This paper draws on the psychological theories of self-efficacy and the self-concept to understand students' self-confidence in academic study in higher education as measured by the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC). In doing this, expectancy-value theory and self-efficacy theory are considered and contrasted with self-concept and…

  8. Strengthening Public Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Herlihy, John J.

    Board members and administrators can build public confidence in their schools by taking every opportunity to communicate positive attitudes about the people in the schools. As leaders, they have the responsibility to use people power to promote the schools. If school employees feel good about their jobs, they will build confidence within the…

  9. The Psychology of Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-09-11

    COpY SEP 1 1 1984 Final Report PFTR-1092-83-1 Contract Number:, N00014-80-C-0140 Work Unit Number: -N197-064 DTIO0 ELECTEl odD THE PSYCHOLOGY OF...the final report of research done under the contract THE PSYCHOLOGY OF CONFIDENCE (Contract N00014-80-C-0150) awarded by the Office of Naval Research...section is a narrative summary of the research completed under this contract. It describes the general background to our work on confidence and

  10. Adding Confidence to Knowledge

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Goodson, Ludwika Aniela; Slater, Don; Zubovic, Yvonne

    2015-01-01

    A "knowledge survey" and a formative evaluation process led to major changes in an instructor's course and teaching methods over a 5-year period. Design of the survey incorporated several innovations, including: a) using "confidence survey" rather than "knowledge survey" as the title; b) completing an instructional…

  11. Predicting Systemic Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Falke, Stephanie Inez

    2009-01-01

    Using a mixed method approach, this study explored which educational factors predicted systemic confidence in master's level marital and family therapy (MFT) students, and whether or not the impact of these factors was influenced by student beliefs and their perception of their supervisor's beliefs about the value of systemic practice. One hundred…

  12. Confidence Course Instructor's Guide.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Montgomery County Public Schools, Rockville, MD.

    The Confidence Course is a program of physical activities which seeks to improve individual self-image and to develop initiative and resourcefulness while promoting feelings of trust and good will within a group. General guidelines and procedures include safety considerations as well as common sense in activity selection and a perspective of…

  13. Computing Graphical Confidence Bounds

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mezzacappa, M. A.

    1983-01-01

    Approximation for graphical confidence bounds is simple enough to run on programmable calculator. Approximation is used in lieu of numerical tables not always available, and exact calculations, which often require rather sizable computer resources. Approximation verified for collection of up to 50 data points. Method used to analyze tile-strength data on Space Shuttle thermal-protection system.

  14. Effects on Balance and Walking with the CoDuSe Balance Exercise Program in People with Multiple Sclerosis: A Multicenter Randomized Controlled Trial

    PubMed Central

    von Koch, Lena

    2016-01-01

    Background. Balance and walking impairments are frequent in people with multiple sclerosis (MS). Objective. The aim was to investigate the effects of a group-based balance exercise program targeting core stability, dual tasking, and sensory strategies (CoDuSe) on balance, postural sway, walking, perceived walking limitations, and balance confidence. Design. A single-blinded randomized multicenter trial. No intervention was given to controls. Participants. People with MS able to walk 100 meters but unable to maintain tandem stance ≥30 seconds. Eighty-seven participants were randomized to intervention or control. Intervention. The 60-minute CoDuSe group program, twice weekly for seven weeks, supervised by physical therapists. Measurements. Primary outcome was dynamic balance (Berg Balance Scale (BBS)). Secondary outcomes were postural sway, walking (Timed-Up and Go test; Functional Gait Assessment (FGA)), MS Walking Scale, and Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale. Assessments were performed before and after (week 8) the intervention. Results. 73 participants fulfilled the study. There were significant differences between the intervention and the control groups in change in the BBS and in the secondary measures: postural sway with eyes open, FGA, MS Walking Scale, and ABC scale in favor of the intervention. Conclusions. The seven-week CoDuSe program improved dynamic balance more than no intervention. PMID:28042485

  15. Trust vs. Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2016-06-07

    both cognitive and affective factors can be implicated in trust judgements. Moreover, unlike confidence judgements (which can occur in many...occurs in situations without risks. A trust judgement, on the other hand, uses a variety of information beyond the merely cognitive , occurs only when...defined. Although there are many different definitions of trust, our definition (Adams and Webb, 2003) is as follows: Trust is a psychological state

  16. Utilitarian Model of Measuring Confidence within Knowledge-Based Societies

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Hung, Kuan-Ming; Liu, Chia Ju; Chiu, Houn Lin

    2009-01-01

    This paper introduces a utilitarian confidence testing statistic called Risk Inclination Model (RIM) which indexes all possible confidence wagering combinations within the confines of a defined symmetrically point-balanced test environment. This paper presents the theoretical underpinnings, a formal derivation, a hypothetical application, and…

  17. Reclaim your creative confidence.

    PubMed

    Kelley, Tom; Kelley, David

    2012-12-01

    Most people are born creative. But over time, a lot of us learn to stifle those impulses. We become warier of judgment, more cautious more analytical. The world seems to divide into "creatives" and "noncreatives," and too many people resign themselves to the latter category. And yet we know that creativity is essential to success in any discipline or industry. The good news, according to authors Tom Kelley and David Kelley of IDEO, is that we all can rediscover our creative confidence. The trick is to overcome the four big fears that hold most of us back: fear of the messy unknown, fear of judgment, fear of the first step, and fear of losing control. The authors use an approach based on the work of psychologist Albert Bandura in helping patients get over their snake phobias: You break challenges down into small steps and then build confidence by succeeding on one after another. Creativity is something you practice, say the authors, not just a talent you are born with.

  18. Optimally combined confidence limits

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Janot, P.; Le Diberder, F.

    1998-02-01

    An analytical and optimal procedure to combine statistically independent sets of confidence levels on a quantity is presented. This procedure does not impose any constraint on the methods followed by each analysis to derive its own limit. It incorporates the a priori statistical power of each of the analyses to be combined, in order to optimize the overall sensitivity. It can, in particular, be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several analyses searching for the Higgs boson in different decay channels, with different selection efficiencies, mass resolution and expected background. It can also be used to combine the mass limits obtained by several experiments (e.g. ALEPH, DELPHI, L3 and OPAL, at LEP 2) independently of the method followed by each of these experiments to derive their own limit. A method to derive the limit set by one analysis is also presented, along with an unbiased prescription to optimize the expected mass limit in the no-signal-hypothesis.

  19. Simulation integration with confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Strelich, Tom; Stalcup, Bruce W.

    1999-07-01

    Current financial, schedule and risk constraints mandate reuse of software components when building large-scale simulations. While integration of simulation components into larger systems is a well-understood process, it is extremely difficult to do while ensuring that the results are correct. Illgen Simulation Technologies Incorporated and Litton PRC have joined forces to provide tools to integrate simulations with confidence. Illgen Simulation Technologies has developed an extensible and scaleable, n-tier, client- server, distributed software framework for integrating legacy simulations, models, tools, utilities, and databases. By utilizing the Internet, Java, and the Common Object Request Brokering Architecture as the core implementation technologies, the framework provides built-in scalability and extensibility.

  20. Confidence through consensus: a neural mechanism for uncertainty monitoring.

    PubMed

    Paz, Luciano; Insabato, Andrea; Zylberberg, Ariel; Deco, Gustavo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-02-24

    Models that integrate sensory evidence to a threshold can explain task accuracy, response times and confidence, yet it is still unclear how confidence is encoded in the brain. Classic models assume that confidence is encoded in some form of balance between the evidence integrated in favor and against the selected option. However, recent experiments that measure the sensory evidence's influence on choice and confidence contradict these classic models. We propose that the decision is taken by many loosely coupled modules each of which represent a stochastic sample of the sensory evidence integral. Confidence is then encoded in the dispersion between modules. We show that our proposal can account for the well established relations between confidence, and stimuli discriminability and reaction times, as well as the fluctuations influence on choice and confidence.

  1. Confidence in Numerical Simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Hemez, Francois M.

    2015-02-23

    This PowerPoint presentation offers a high-level discussion of uncertainty, confidence and credibility in scientific Modeling and Simulation (M&S). It begins by briefly evoking M&S trends in computational physics and engineering. The first thrust of the discussion is to emphasize that the role of M&S in decision-making is either to support reasoning by similarity or to “forecast,” that is, make predictions about the future or extrapolate to settings or environments that cannot be tested experimentally. The second thrust is to explain that M&S-aided decision-making is an exercise in uncertainty management. The three broad classes of uncertainty in computational physics and engineering are variability and randomness, numerical uncertainty and model-form uncertainty. The last part of the discussion addresses how scientists “think.” This thought process parallels the scientific method where by a hypothesis is formulated, often accompanied by simplifying assumptions, then, physical experiments and numerical simulations are performed to confirm or reject the hypothesis. “Confidence” derives, not just from the levels of training and experience of analysts, but also from the rigor with which these assessments are performed, documented and peer-reviewed.

  2. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2008-01-01

    This article examines the nature of confidence in relation to abilities, personality, and metacognition. Confidence scores were collected during the administration of Reading and Listening sections of the Test of English as a Foreign Language Internet-Based Test (TOEFL iBT) to 824 native speakers of English. Those confidence scores were correlated…

  3. Explorations in Statistics: Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Curran-Everett, Douglas

    2009-01-01

    Learning about statistics is a lot like learning about science: the learning is more meaningful if you can actively explore. This third installment of "Explorations in Statistics" investigates confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range that we expect, with some level of confidence, to include the true value of a population parameter…

  4. Monitoring tigers with confidence.

    PubMed

    Linkie, Matthew; Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta; Smith, Joseph; Rayan, D Mark

    2010-12-01

    With only 5% of the world's wild tigers (Panthera tigris Linnaeus, 1758) remaining since the last century, conservationists urgently need to know whether or not the management strategies currently being employed are effectively protecting these tigers. This knowledge is contingent on the ability to reliably monitor tiger populations, or subsets, over space and time. In the this paper, we focus on the 2 seminal methodologies (camera trap and occupancy surveys) that have enabled the monitoring of tiger populations with greater confidence. Specifically, we: (i) describe their statistical theory and application in the field; (ii) discuss issues associated with their survey designs and state variable modeling; and, (iii) discuss their future directions. These methods have had an unprecedented influence on increasing statistical rigor within tiger surveys and, also, surveys of other carnivore species. Nevertheless, only 2 published camera trap studies have gone beyond single baseline assessments and actually monitored population trends. For low density tiger populations (e.g. <1 adult tiger/100 km(2)) obtaining sufficient precision for state variable estimates from camera trapping remains a challenge because of insufficient detection probabilities and/or sample sizes. Occupancy surveys have overcome this problem by redefining the sampling unit (e.g. grid cells and not individual tigers). Current research is focusing on developing spatially explicit capture-mark-recapture models and estimating abundance indices from landscape-scale occupancy surveys, as well as the use of genetic information for identifying and monitoring tigers. The widespread application of these monitoring methods in the field now enables complementary studies on the impact of the different threats to tiger populations and their response to varying management intervention.

  5. Effect Sizes, Confidence Intervals, and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Thompson, Bruce

    2007-01-01

    The present article provides a primer on (a) effect sizes, (b) confidence intervals, and (c) confidence intervals for effect sizes. Additionally, various admonitions for reformed statistical practice are presented. For example, a very important implication of the realization that there are dozens of effect size statistics is that "authors must…

  6. Confidence limits and their errors

    SciTech Connect

    Rajendran Raja

    2002-03-22

    Confidence limits are common place in physics analysis. Great care must be taken in their calculation and use especially in cases of limited statistics. We introduce the concept of statistical errors of confidence limits and argue that not only should limits be calculated but also their errors in order to represent the results of the analysis to the fullest. We show that comparison of two different limits from two different experiments becomes easier when their errors are also quoted. Use of errors of confidence limits will lead to abatement of the debate on which method is best suited to calculate confidence limits.

  7. Measuring Vaccine Confidence: Introducing a Global Vaccine Confidence Index

    PubMed Central

    Larson, Heidi J; Schulz, William S; Tucker, Joseph D; Smith, David M D

    2015-01-01

    Background. Public confidence in vaccination is vital to the success of immunisation programmes worldwide. Understanding the dynamics of vaccine confidence is therefore of great importance for global public health. Few published studies permit global comparisons of vaccination sentiments and behaviours against a common metric. This article presents the findings of a multi-country survey of confidence in vaccines and immunisation programmes in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the United Kingdom (UK) – these being the first results of a larger project to map vaccine confidence globally. Methods. Data were collected from a sample of the general population and from those with children under 5 years old against a core set of confidence questions. All surveys were conducted in the relevant local-language in Georgia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the UK. We examine confidence in immunisation programmes as compared to confidence in other government health services, the relationships between confidence in the system and levels of vaccine hesitancy, reasons for vaccine hesitancy, ultimate vaccination decisions, and their variation based on country contexts and demographic factors. Results. The numbers of respondents by country were: Georgia (n=1000); India (n=1259); Pakistan (n=2609); UK (n=2055); Nigerian households (n=12554); and Nigerian health providers (n=1272). The UK respondents with children under five years of age were more likely to hesitate to vaccinate, compared to other countries. Confidence in immunisation programmes was more closely associated with confidence in the broader health system in the UK (Spearman’s ρ=0.5990), compared to Nigeria (ρ=0.5477), Pakistan (ρ=0.4491), and India (ρ=0.4240), all of which ranked confidence in immunisation programmes higher than confidence in the broader health system. Georgia had the highest rate of vaccine refusals (6 %) among those who reported initial hesitation. In all other countries surveyed most

  8. Teaching Confidence Intervals Using Simulation

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hagtvedt, Reidar; Jones, Gregory Todd; Jones, Kari

    2008-01-01

    Confidence intervals are difficult to teach, in part because most students appear to believe they understand how to interpret them intuitively. They rarely do. To help them abandon their misconception and achieve understanding, we have developed a simulation tool that encourages experimentation with multiple confidence intervals derived from the…

  9. Effects of a Task-specific Exercise Program on Balance, Mobility, and Muscle Strength in the Elderly.

    PubMed

    Seo, Hyung-Seok; Lee, Jung-Ho; Park, Young-Han

    2014-11-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a task-specific exercise program based on motor learning on balance ability and strength of the lower extremity in the elderly with/without falling experiences. [Subjects and Methods] Individuals who had experiences of falling over 2 times within the past 6 months were included in the falling group. The task-specific exercise program consisted of 3 stages (weeks 1-2, 3-4, and 5-6) and was conducted according to the level of difficulty in this study. [Results] The scores of the Korean version of the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale and Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment were significantly changed in both the falling group and non-falling group after the task-specific exercise program. In comparisons between the falling group and non-falling group, there were also significant differences in the Korean version of the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale and muscle strength of the semitendinosus and gastrocnemius. [Conclusion] The task-specific exercise program has a positive effect on balance ability and muscle strength related to falls in the elderly.

  10. Effects of a Task-specific Exercise Program on Balance, Mobility, and Muscle Strength in the Elderly

    PubMed Central

    Seo, Hyung-Seok; Lee, Jung-Ho; Park, Young-Han

    2014-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of a task-specific exercise program based on motor learning on balance ability and strength of the lower extremity in the elderly with/without falling experiences. [Subjects and Methods] Individuals who had experiences of falling over 2 times within the past 6 months were included in the falling group. The task-specific exercise program consisted of 3 stages (weeks 1–2, 3–4, and 5–6) and was conducted according to the level of difficulty in this study. [Results] The scores of the Korean version of the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale and Performance-Oriented Mobility Assessment were significantly changed in both the falling group and non-falling group after the task-specific exercise program. In comparisons between the falling group and non-falling group, there were also significant differences in the Korean version of the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale and muscle strength of the semitendinosus and gastrocnemius. [Conclusion] The task-specific exercise program has a positive effect on balance ability and muscle strength related to falls in the elderly. PMID:25435679

  11. Predicting confidence in flashbulb memories.

    PubMed

    Day, Martin V; Ross, Michael

    2014-01-01

    Years after a shocking news event many people confidently report details of their flashbulb memories (e.g., what they were doing). People's confidence is a defining feature of their flashbulb memories, but it is not well understood. We tested a model that predicted confidence in flashbulb memories. In particular we examined whether people's social bond with the target of a news event predicts confidence. At a first session shortly after the death of Michael Jackson participants reported their sense of attachment to Michael Jackson, as well as their flashbulb memories and emotional and other reactions to Jackson's death. At a second session approximately 18 months later they reported their flashbulb memories and confidence in those memories. Results supported our proposed model. A stronger sense of attachment to Jackson was related to reports of more initial surprise, emotion, and rehearsal during the first session. Participants' bond with Michael Jackson predicted their confidence but not the consistency of their flashbulb memories 18 months later. We also examined whether participants' initial forecasts regarding the persistence of their flashbulb memories predicted the durability of their memories. Participants' initial forecasts were more strongly related to participants' subsequent confidence than to the actual consistency of their memories.

  12. Confidence of a ROC manifold

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Oxley, Mark E.; Schubert, Christine M.; Thorsen, Steven N.

    2010-04-01

    A Classification system such as an Automatic Target Recognition (ATR) system with N possible output labels (or decisions) will have N(N-1) possible errors. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) manifold was created to quantify all of these errors. Finite truth data will produce an approximation to a ROC manifold. How well does the approximate ROC manifold approximate the TRUE ROC manifold? Several metrics exist that quantify the approximation ability, but researchers really wish to quantify the confidence in the approximate ROC manifold. This paper will review different confidence definitions for ROC curves and will derive an expression for confidence of a ROC manifold. The foundation of the confidence expression is based upon the Chebychev inequality..

  13. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... version of this page please turn Javascript on. Balance Problems About Balance Problems Have you ever felt dizzy, lightheaded, or ... dizziness problem during the past year. Why Good Balance is Important Having good balance means being able ...

  14. Relationship Between Cognitive Assessment and Balance Measures in Adolescents Referred for Vestibular Physical Therapy After Concussion

    PubMed Central

    Alsalaheen, Bara A.; Whitney, Susan L.; Marchetti, Gregory F.; Furman, Joseph M.; Kontos, Anthony P.; Collins, Michael W.; Sparto, Patrick J.

    2016-01-01

    Objective To examine the relationship between cognitive and balance performance in adolescents with concussion. Design Retrospective case series. Setting Tertiary. Patients Sixty patients. Interventions Correlation analyses were performed to describe the relationship between symptoms, cognitive measure, and balance measure at the time of initiation of vestibular physical therapy. Main Outcome Measures Cognitive performance was assessed using the Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing (ImPACT). The dizziness and balance function measures included dizziness severity rating, Activities-specific Balance Confidence scale (ABC), Dizziness Handicap Inventory (DHI), Functional Gait Assessment, gait speed, Timed “UP and GO,” Five Times Sit to Stand, and Sensory Organization Test (SOT). To account for multiple comparisons, the False Discovery Rate method was used. Results Performance measures of balance were significantly correlated with cognitive measures. Greater total symptom scores were related to greater impairment in the ABC and DHI (r = 0.35-0.39, P ≤ 0.008) and worse performance in condition 2 of the SOT (r = −0.48, P = 0.004). Among the ImPACT composite scores, lower memory scores were correlated with impaired balance performance measures (r = 0.37-0.59, P ≤ 0.012). Lower visual memory was also correlated with worse ABC scores. Conclusions The significant relationships reported between the cognitive performance scores and balance measures may reflect that similar levels of functioning exist across domains in individuals with protracted recovery who receive vestibular physical therapy. PMID:25706663

  15. How to Fire a President: Voting "No Confidence" with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Schmidt, Peter

    2009-01-01

    College faculties often use votes of "no confidence" to try to push out the leaders of their institutions. Many do so, however, without giving much thought to what such a vote actually means, whether they are using it appropriately, or how it will affect their campus--and their own future. Mae Kuykendall, a professor of law at Michigan State…

  16. Targeting Low Career Confidence Using the Career Planning Confidence Scale

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    McAuliffe, Garrett; Jurgens, Jill C.; Pickering, Worth; Calliotte, James; Macera, Anthony; Zerwas, Steven

    2006-01-01

    The authors describe the development and validation of a test of career planning confidence that makes possible the targeting of specific problem issues in employment counseling. The scale, developed using a rational process and the authors' experience with clients, was tested for criterion-related validity against 2 other measures. The scale…

  17. Minimax confidence intervals in geomagnetism

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Stark, Philip B.

    1992-01-01

    The present paper uses theory of Donoho (1989) to find lower bounds on the lengths of optimally short fixed-length confidence intervals (minimax confidence intervals) for Gauss coefficients of the field of degree 1-12 using the heat flow constraint. The bounds on optimal minimax intervals are about 40 percent shorter than Backus' intervals: no procedure for producing fixed-length confidence intervals, linear or nonlinear, can give intervals shorter than about 60 percent the length of Backus' in this problem. While both methods rigorously account for the fact that core field models are infinite-dimensional, the application of the techniques to the geomagnetic problem involves approximations and counterfactual assumptions about the data errors, and so these results are likely to be extremely optimistic estimates of the actual uncertainty in Gauss coefficients.

  18. How confident do you feel?

    PubMed

    de Lafuente, Victor; Romo, Ranulfo

    2014-08-20

    In this issue of Neuron, Fetsch et al. (2014) show that microstimulation of motion-sensitive neurons in the visual cortex (MT/MST) of primates mimics the addition of sensory information for which the stimulated neurons are selective. Such microstimulation increases the confidence that monkeys have in their decisions about motion direction.

  19. Balance Problems

    MedlinePlus

    ... often, it could be a sign of a balance problem. Balance problems can make you feel unsteady or as ... fall-related injuries, such as hip fracture. Some balance problems are due to problems in the inner ...

  20. Domains and correlates of clinical balance impairment associated with Huntington's disease.

    PubMed

    Jacobs, Jesse V; Boyd, James T; Hogarth, Penelope; Horak, Fay B

    2015-03-01

    This study sought to (a) determine the domains of clinical balance impairments associated with Huntington's disease (HD), and (b) evaluate associations between balance test scores and other disease-related impairments. Eighteen subjects with genetically definite HD and 17 age-matched control subjects were evaluated on the Mini-BESTest for their clinical balance impairments as well as the Unified HD Rating Scale (UHDRS) motor and total functional capacity scales, Activity-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale-short form, Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA), and Symbol Digit Modalities Test (SDMT). Results showed that subjects with HD exhibited significantly lower total Mini-BESTest scores than subjects without HD (mean (95% CI)=76 (64-87)% with HD, 98 (96-99)% without HD; p=0.0011). Mini-BESTest item scores were significantly lower for subjects with HD on one-leg stance, postural responses, standing with eyes closed on foam, and dual-task timed up-and-go. Mini-BESTest scores significantly correlated with UHDRS motor (r(2)=0.68; p=0.00003) and total functional capacity (r(2)=0.75; p=0.000006) scores as well as with scores on the ABC short form (r(2)=0.45; p=0.0024), SDMT (r(2)=0.42; p=0.0036), and MoCA (r(2)=0.23; p=0.046) assessments. This study, therefore, demonstrates that balance impairments associated with HD span domains of anticipatory postural adjustments, postural responses, stance in challenging sensory conditions, and gait. Although preliminary, clinical balance impairment appears to be an efficient proxy evaluation of multiple HD-related factors due to associations with functional capacity, other motor impairments, balance confidence, and cognitive abilities.

  1. Confidence Probability versus Detection Probability

    SciTech Connect

    Axelrod, M

    2005-08-18

    In a discovery sampling activity the auditor seeks to vet an inventory by measuring (or inspecting) a random sample of items from the inventory. When the auditor finds every sample item in compliance, he must then make a confidence statement about the whole inventory. For example, the auditor might say: ''We believe that this inventory of 100 items contains no more than 5 defectives with 95% confidence.'' Note this is a retrospective statement in that it asserts something about the inventory after the sample was selected and measured. Contrast this to the prospective statement: ''We will detect the existence of more than 5 defective items in this inventory with 95% probability.'' The former uses confidence probability while the latter uses detection probability. For a given sample size, the two probabilities need not be equal, indeed they could differ significantly. Both these probabilities critically depend on the auditor's prior belief about the number of defectives in the inventory and how he defines non-compliance. In other words, the answer strongly depends on how the question is framed.

  2. Confidence-Based Feature Acquisition

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Wagstaff, Kiri L.; desJardins, Marie; MacGlashan, James

    2010-01-01

    Confidence-based Feature Acquisition (CFA) is a novel, supervised learning method for acquiring missing feature values when there is missing data at both training (learning) and test (deployment) time. To train a machine learning classifier, data is encoded with a series of input features describing each item. In some applications, the training data may have missing values for some of the features, which can be acquired at a given cost. A relevant JPL example is that of the Mars rover exploration in which the features are obtained from a variety of different instruments, with different power consumption and integration time costs. The challenge is to decide which features will lead to increased classification performance and are therefore worth acquiring (paying the cost). To solve this problem, CFA, which is made up of two algorithms (CFA-train and CFA-predict), has been designed to greedily minimize total acquisition cost (during training and testing) while aiming for a specific accuracy level (specified as a confidence threshold). With this method, it is assumed that there is a nonempty subset of features that are free; that is, every instance in the data set includes these features initially for zero cost. It is also assumed that the feature acquisition (FA) cost associated with each feature is known in advance, and that the FA cost for a given feature is the same for all instances. Finally, CFA requires that the base-level classifiers produce not only a classification, but also a confidence (or posterior probability).

  3. Confidence-related decision making.

    PubMed

    Insabato, Andrea; Pannunzi, Mario; Rolls, Edmund T; Deco, Gustavo

    2010-07-01

    Neurons have been recorded that reflect in their firing rates the confidence in a decision. Here we show how this could arise as an emergent property in an integrate-and-fire attractor network model of decision making. The attractor network has populations of neurons that respond to each of the possible choices, each biased by the evidence for that choice, and there is competition between the attractor states until one population wins the competition and finishes with high firing that represents the decision. Noise resulting from the random spiking times of individual neurons makes the decision making probabilistic. We also show that a second attractor network can make decisions based on the confidence in the first decision. This system is supported by and accounts for neuronal responses recorded during decision making and makes predictions about the neuronal activity that will be found when a decision is made about whether to stay with a first decision or to abort the trial and start again. The research shows how monitoring can be performed in the brain and this has many implications for understanding cognitive functioning.

  4. Confidence bounds on structural reliability

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Mehta, S. R.; Cruse, T. A.; Mahadevan, S.

    1993-01-01

    Different approaches for quantifying physical, statistical, and model uncertainties associated with the distribution parameters which are aimed at determining structural reliability are described. Confidence intervals on the distribution parameters of the input random variables are estimated using four algorithms to evaluate uncertainty of the response. Design intervals are evaluated using either Monte Carlo simulation or an iterative approach. A first order approach can be used to compute a first approximation of the design interval, but its accuracy is not satisfactory. The regression approach which combines the iterative approach with Monte Carlo simulation is capable of providing good results if the performance function can be accurately represented using regression analysis. It is concluded that the design interval-based approach seems to be quite general and takes into account distribution and model uncertainties.

  5. Confidence in ASCI scientific simulations

    SciTech Connect

    Ang, J.A.; Trucano, T.G.; Luginbuhl, D.R.

    1998-06-01

    The US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI) program calls for the development of high end computing and advanced application simulations as one component of a program to eliminate reliance upon nuclear testing in the US nuclear weapons program. This paper presents results from the ASCI program`s examination of needs for focused validation and verification (V and V). These V and V activities will ensure that 100 TeraOP-scale ASCI simulation code development projects apply the appropriate means to achieve high confidence in the use of simulations for stockpile assessment and certification. The authors begin with an examination of the roles for model development and validation in the traditional scientific method. The traditional view is that the scientific method has two foundations, experimental and theoretical. While the traditional scientific method does not acknowledge the role for computing and simulation, this examination establishes a foundation for the extension of the traditional processes to include verification and scientific software development that results in the notional framework known as Sargent`s Framework. This framework elucidates the relationships between the processes of scientific model development, computational model verification and simulation validation. This paper presents a discussion of the methodologies and practices that the ASCI program will use to establish confidence in large-scale scientific simulations. While the effort for a focused program in V and V is just getting started, the ASCI program has been underway for a couple of years. The authors discuss some V and V activities and preliminary results from the ALEGRA simulation code that is under development for ASCI. The breadth of physical phenomena and the advanced computational algorithms that are employed by ALEGRA make it a subject for V and V that should typify what is required for many ASCI simulations.

  6. A Mathematical Framework for Statistical Decision Confidence.

    PubMed

    Hangya, Balázs; Sanders, Joshua I; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-09-01

    Decision confidence is a forecast about the probability that a decision will be correct. From a statistical perspective, decision confidence can be defined as the Bayesian posterior probability that the chosen option is correct based on the evidence contributing to it. Here, we used this formal definition as a starting point to develop a normative statistical framework for decision confidence. Our goal was to make general predictions that do not depend on the structure of the noise or a specific algorithm for estimating confidence. We analytically proved several interrelations between statistical decision confidence and observable decision measures, such as evidence discriminability, choice, and accuracy. These interrelationships specify necessary signatures of decision confidence in terms of externally quantifiable variables that can be empirically tested. Our results lay the foundations for a mathematically rigorous treatment of decision confidence that can lead to a common framework for understanding confidence across different research domains, from human and animal behavior to neural representations.

  7. Effects of Ving Tsun Chinese martial art training on musculoskeletal health, balance performance, and self-efficacy in community-dwelling older adults.

    PubMed

    Lip, Ryan W T; Fong, Shirley S M; Ng, Shamay S M; Liu, Karen P Y; Guo, X

    2015-03-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Ving Tsun (VT) Chinese martial art training on radial bone strength, upper- and lower-limb muscular strength, shoulder joint mobility, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly participants. [Subjects and Methods] Twelve seniors voluntarily joined the VT training group, and twenty-seven seniors voluntarily joined the control group. The VT group received VT training for three months, while the control group received no training. The bone strength of the distal radius was assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer. Muscular strength in the limbs was evaluated using a Jamar handgrip dynamometer and the five times sit-to-stand test. Shoulder joint mobility was examined using a goniometer. Balance performance and self-efficacy were evaluated using the Berg Balance Scale and the Chinese version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, respectively. [Results] The results revealed a nonsignificant group-by-time interaction effect, group effect, and time effect for all outcome variables. However, general trends of maintenance or improvement in all outcome parameters were observed to a greater extent in the VT group than in the control group. [Conclusion] VT training might be a potential fall-prevention exercise that can be used to maintain general physique, balance, and confidence in the elderly population. A further randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm this postulation.

  8. Effects of Ving Tsun Chinese martial art training on musculoskeletal health, balance performance, and self-efficacy in community-dwelling older adults

    PubMed Central

    Lip, Ryan W.T.; Fong, Shirley S.M.; Ng, Shamay S.M.; Liu, Karen P.Y.; Guo, X.

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of Ving Tsun (VT) Chinese martial art training on radial bone strength, upper- and lower-limb muscular strength, shoulder joint mobility, balance performance, and self-efficacy in elderly participants. [Subjects and Methods] Twelve seniors voluntarily joined the VT training group, and twenty-seven seniors voluntarily joined the control group. The VT group received VT training for three months, while the control group received no training. The bone strength of the distal radius was assessed using an ultrasound bone sonometer. Muscular strength in the limbs was evaluated using a Jamar handgrip dynamometer and the five times sit-to-stand test. Shoulder joint mobility was examined using a goniometer. Balance performance and self-efficacy were evaluated using the Berg Balance Scale and the Chinese version of the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, respectively. [Results] The results revealed a nonsignificant group-by-time interaction effect, group effect, and time effect for all outcome variables. However, general trends of maintenance or improvement in all outcome parameters were observed to a greater extent in the VT group than in the control group. [Conclusion] VT training might be a potential fall-prevention exercise that can be used to maintain general physique, balance, and confidence in the elderly population. A further randomized controlled trial is needed to confirm this postulation. PMID:25931704

  9. Beginning Teachers' Confidence before and after Induction

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Turley, Steve; Powers, Kristin; Nakai, Karen

    2006-01-01

    Levels of confidence of novice teachers were investigated pre- and post-induction program. In sum, 119 beginning teachers completed a New Teacher Confidence Survey on 28 teaching performance behaviors. There was a statistically significant confidence gain from pre- to postinduction on 20 of 28 teaching behaviors. Statistically significant gains…

  10. Local and Global Judgments of Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liberman, Varda

    2004-01-01

    Studies of calibration have shown that people's mean confidence in their answers (local confidence) tends to be greater than their overall estimate of the percentage of correct answers (global confidence). Moreover, whereas the former exhibits overconfidence, the latter often exhibits underconfidence. Three studies present evidence that global…

  11. Laser Balancing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    1981-01-01

    Mechanical Technology, Incorporated developed a fully automatic laser machining process that allows more precise balancing removes metal faster, eliminates excess metal removal and other operator induced inaccuracies, and provides significant reduction in balancing time. Manufacturing costs are reduced as a result.

  12. Effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on balance, gait, and fear of falling in post-stroke inpatients

    PubMed Central

    Jung, Younuk; Lee, Kyeongbong; Shin, Seonhae; Lee, Wanhee

    2015-01-01

    [Purpose] This study investigated the effects of a multifactorial fall prevention program on balance, gait, and fear of falling in stroke patients. [Subjects] Twenty-five stroke patients were divided randomly into multifactorial fall prevention program group (n=15) and control treadmill group (n=10). [Methods] All interventions were applied for 30 min, five times per week, for five weeks. The fall prevention program included interventions based on the “Step Up to Stop Falls” initiative and educational interventions based on the Department of Health guidelines. For those in the treadmill group, the speed was increased gradually. The Korean falls efficacy scale and Korean activities-specific balance confidence scale were used to assess fear of falling. To assess balance and walking ability, the Korean performance-oriented mobility assessment scale and the 10-m and 6-minute walk tests were used. [Results] The fall prevention program interventions were found to be very effective at improving gait, balance, and fear of falling compared with the treadmill intervention and therefore seem appropriate for stroke patients. [Conclusion] A multifactorial fall prevention program is effective at improving balance, gait ability, and fear of falling. It is a more specific and broad intervention for reducing falls among inpatients in facilities and hospitals. PMID:26180337

  13. Estimating Confidence In Data Via Trend Analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gutow, David A.; Arnold, Gregory A.

    1991-01-01

    Recursive equation defines probability-density function storing trends in noisy or potentially erroneous data. Part of algorithm for analysis of trends in data. Developed to determine reliability of data from sensor used to guide robot, and mathematical approach that it represents proves valuable in other applications. Enables computation of statistic (called "confidence statistic") indicating level of confidence in new datum. Generates confidence statistic high or low, depending on whether new datum consistent or inconsistent with previous trends.

  14. Balancing Acts

    MedlinePlus

    ... a new type of balance therapy using computerized, virtual reality. UPMC associate professor Susan Whitney, Ph.D., ... involves simulated trips down the aisles of a virtual grocery store in the university's Medical Virtual Reality ...

  15. Raising Confident, Competent Daughters: Strategies for Parents.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ransome, Whitney, Ed.; And Others

    This booklet contains five essays designed to help parents raise confident, competent daughters. They focus on ways that parents can help their preadolescent and adolescent daughters: (1) speak up in class, articulate their thoughts, and speak with self-confidence in various academic and social situations; (2) develop an interest and aptitude for…

  16. Preservice Educators' Confidence in Addressing Sexuality Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wyatt, Tammy Jordan

    2009-01-01

    This study examined 328 preservice educators' level of confidence in addressing four sexuality education domains and 21 sexuality education topics. Significant differences in confidence levels across the four domains were found for gender, academic major, sexuality education philosophy, and sexuality education knowledge. Preservice educators…

  17. New Teacher Confidence: How Does It Develop?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tran, MyLuong T.; Young, Russell L.; Mathison, Carla; Hahn, Brenda Terry

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the confidence levels of new teachers and related factors. Seventy-seven first and second year teachers participating in a new teacher retention project filled out a survey. Teachers felt most confident in their communication with colleagues, sensitivity to the needs of a multicultural classroom, and…

  18. A Confidence Paradigm for Classification Systems

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2008-09-01

    will have an associated confidence function. Class specific classifier confidence is esti- mated using multiattribute preference theory . The appropriate...Preference Theory Application Multiattribute preference theory is a branch of decision analysis that allows a decision maker to determine preferences...for alternatives when each of the alternatives has more than one attribute. Within multiattribute preference theory , there are two classes of

  19. Enhancing Confidence in the Gender Sensitive Curriculum.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pryor, John

    Starting from the idea that even well-intentioned teachers often undermine girls' confidence in gender-sensitive areas of school curriculum, this paper outlines methods that might be used to enhance this confidence. It presents impressions from a 1-year observation of a class of 10-year-olds in a British school as part of a project called Group…

  20. Interpretation of Confidence Interval Facing the Conflict

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Andrade, Luisa; Fernández, Felipe

    2016-01-01

    As literature has reported, it is usual that university students in statistics courses, and even statistics teachers, interpret the confidence level associated with a confidence interval as the probability that the parameter value will be between the lower and upper interval limits. To confront this misconception, class activities have been…

  1. Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and ...

    EPA Pesticide Factsheets

    Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches Slide presentation at GlobalChem conference and workshop in Washington, DC on Case Study on Building Scientific Confidence in the Development and Evaluation of Read-Across Using Tox21 Approaches

  2. Confidence in Parenting: Is Parent Education Working?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanberry, J. Phillip; Stanberry, Anne M.

    This study examined parents' feelings of confidence in their parenting ability among 56 individuals enrolled in 5 parent education programs in Mississippi, hypothesizing that there would be significant correlations between personal authority in the family system and a parent's confidence in performing the various roles of parenting. Based on…

  3. Gender, Family Structure, and Adolescents' Primary Confidants

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nomaguchi, Kei M.

    2008-01-01

    Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (N = 4,190), this study examined adolescents' reports of primary confidants. Results showed that nearly 30% of adolescents aged 16-18 nominated mothers as primary confidants, 25% nominated romantic partners, and 20% nominated friends. Nominating romantic partners or friends was related…

  4. Confidence Wagering during Mathematics and Science Testing

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Hoan-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal presents the results of a case study involving five 8th grade Taiwanese classes, two mathematics and three science classes. These classes used a new method of testing called confidence wagering. This paper advocates the position that confidence wagering can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during…

  5. Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Michael D.; Dry, Matthew J.

    2006-01-01

    We study human decision making in a simple forced-choice task that manipulates the frequency and accuracy of available information. Empirically, we find that people make decisions consistent with the advice provided, but that their subjective confidence in their decisions shows 2 interesting properties. First, people's confidence does not depend…

  6. Examining Response Confidence in Multiple Text Tasks

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    List, Alexandra; Alexander, Patricia A.

    2015-01-01

    Students' confidence in their responses to a multiple text-processing task and their justifications for those confidence ratings were investigated. Specifically, 215 undergraduates responded to two academic questions, differing by type (i.e., discrete and open-ended) and by domain (i.e., developmental psychology and astrophysics), using a digital…

  7. Confidence and Doubt in Relation to Mathematics.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Boekaerts, Monique

    This paper reviews literature documenting gender differences in beliefs related to mathematics achievement. The areas included in the discussion are: (1) gender differences in mathematics achievement and self-referenced cognitions, (2) the effect of confidence and anxiety on mathematics performance and expenditure of effort, and (3) confidence and…

  8. Hypercorrection of High Confidence Errors in Children

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Metcalfe, Janet; Finn, Bridgid

    2012-01-01

    Three experiments investigated whether the hypercorrection effect--the finding that errors committed with high confidence are easier, rather than more difficult, to correct than are errors committed with low confidence--occurs in grade school children as it does in young adults. All three experiments showed that Grade 3-6 children hypercorrected…

  9. Confidence and Competence with Mathematical Procedures

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Foster, Colin

    2016-01-01

    Confidence assessment (CA), in which students state alongside each of their answers a confidence level expressing how certain they are, has been employed successfully within higher education. However, it has not been widely explored with school pupils. This study examined how school mathematics pupils (N?=?345) in five different secondary schools…

  10. An informative confidence metric for ATR.

    SciTech Connect

    Bow, Wallace Johnston Jr.; Richards, John Alfred; Bray, Brian Kenworthy

    2003-03-01

    Automatic or assisted target recognition (ATR) is an important application of synthetic aperture radar (SAR). Most ATR researchers have focused on the core problem of declaration-that is, detection and identification of targets of interest within a SAR image. For ATR declarations to be of maximum value to an image analyst, however, it is essential that each declaration be accompanied by a reliability estimate or confidence metric. Unfortunately, the need for a clear and informative confidence metric for ATR has generally been overlooked or ignored. We propose a framework and methodology for evaluating the confidence in an ATR system's declarations and competing target hypotheses. Our proposed confidence metric is intuitive, informative, and applicable to a broad class of ATRs. We demonstrate that seemingly similar ATRs may differ fundamentally in the ability-or inability-to identify targets with high confidence.

  11. Postural and Balance Disorders in Patients with Parkinson's Disease: A Prospective Open-Label Feasibility Study with Two Months of Action Observation Treatment

    PubMed Central

    Santamato, Andrea; Ranieri, Maurizio; Cinone, Nicoletta; Stuppiello, Lucia Anna; Valeno, Giovanni; De Sanctis, Jula Laura; Fortunato, Francesca; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Greco, Antonio; Seripa, Davide; Panza, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    Action observation treatment has been proposed as therapeutic option in rehabilitation of patients affected by Parkinson's disease (PD) to improve freezing of gait episodes. The purpose of this prospective open-label feasibility study was to evaluate the impact of 8-week action observation training (video-therapy) for the treatment of postural instability and balance impairment in PD patients. Fifteen PD patients aged under 80 years with scores of 1 to 3 on the Hoehn and Yahr staging and without evidence of freezing of gait were recruited. They underwent 24 sessions of video-therapy training based on carefully watching video clips on motor tasks linked to balance, subsequently performing the same observed movements. No statistically significant differences were observed in the identified outcome measures with the Berg Balance Scale and the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale after two months of follow-up. In the present study, a short course of action observation treatment seems to be not effective in reducing balance impairments and postural instability in patients affected by mild to moderate PD. Further studies with larger samples, longer follow-up period, and standardized protocols of action observation treatment are needed to investigate the effects of this rehabilitation technique in the management of postural and balance disorders of PD patients. PMID:26798551

  12. Postural and Balance Disorders in Patients with Parkinson's Disease: A Prospective Open-Label Feasibility Study with Two Months of Action Observation Treatment.

    PubMed

    Santamato, Andrea; Ranieri, Maurizio; Cinone, Nicoletta; Stuppiello, Lucia Anna; Valeno, Giovanni; De Sanctis, Jula Laura; Fortunato, Francesca; Solfrizzi, Vincenzo; Greco, Antonio; Seripa, Davide; Panza, Francesco

    2015-01-01

    Action observation treatment has been proposed as therapeutic option in rehabilitation of patients affected by Parkinson's disease (PD) to improve freezing of gait episodes. The purpose of this prospective open-label feasibility study was to evaluate the impact of 8-week action observation training (video-therapy) for the treatment of postural instability and balance impairment in PD patients. Fifteen PD patients aged under 80 years with scores of 1 to 3 on the Hoehn and Yahr staging and without evidence of freezing of gait were recruited. They underwent 24 sessions of video-therapy training based on carefully watching video clips on motor tasks linked to balance, subsequently performing the same observed movements. No statistically significant differences were observed in the identified outcome measures with the Berg Balance Scale and the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence Scale after two months of follow-up. In the present study, a short course of action observation treatment seems to be not effective in reducing balance impairments and postural instability in patients affected by mild to moderate PD. Further studies with larger samples, longer follow-up period, and standardized protocols of action observation treatment are needed to investigate the effects of this rehabilitation technique in the management of postural and balance disorders of PD patients.

  13. We will be champions: Leaders' confidence in 'us' inspires team members' team confidence and performance.

    PubMed

    Fransen, K; Steffens, N K; Haslam, S A; Vanbeselaere, N; Vande Broek, G; Boen, F

    2016-12-01

    The present research examines the impact of leaders' confidence in their team on the team confidence and performance of their teammates. In an experiment involving newly assembled soccer teams, we manipulated the team confidence expressed by the team leader (high vs neutral vs low) and assessed team members' responses and performance as they unfolded during a competition (i.e., in a first baseline session and a second test session). Our findings pointed to team confidence contagion such that when the leader had expressed high (rather than neutral or low) team confidence, team members perceived their team to be more efficacious and were more confident in the team's ability to win. Moreover, leaders' team confidence affected individual and team performance such that teams led by a highly confident leader performed better than those led by a less confident leader. Finally, the results supported a hypothesized mediational model in showing that the effect of leaders' confidence on team members' team confidence and performance was mediated by the leader's perceived identity leadership and members' team identification. In conclusion, the findings of this experiment suggest that leaders' team confidence can enhance members' team confidence and performance by fostering members' identification with the team.

  14. Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kennedy, Mike

    2007-01-01

    For some administrators and planners, designing and building education facilities may sometimes seem like a circus act--trying to project a persona of competence and confidence while juggling dozens of issues. Meanwhile, the audience--students, staff members and taxpayers--watch and wait with anticipation in hopes of getting what they paid for and…

  15. Active specific immunotherapy using the immune reaction of a low-dose irradiated tumor tissue. [Mice

    SciTech Connect

    Ogawa, Y.; Imanaka, K.; Ashida, C.; Takashima, H.; Imajo, Y.; Kimura, S.

    1983-04-01

    Active specific immunotherapy using the immune reaction of a low-dose irradiated tumor tissue was studied on the transplanted MM46 tumor of female C3H/He mice after radiotherapy. MM46 tumor cells were inoculated into the right hind paws of mice. On the 5th day, irradiation with the dose irradiated tumor tissue (2000 rad on the fifth day), were injected into the left hind paws of the tumor-bearing mice. Effectiveness of this active specific immunotherapy against tumor was evaluated by the regression of tumor and survival rate of mice. Tumor was markedly regressed and survival rate was significantly increased by the active specific immunitherapy.

  16. Sampling Theory and Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Using ESCI To Illustrate "Bouncing"; Confidence Intervals.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Du, Yunfei

    This paper discusses the impact of sampling error on the construction of confidence intervals around effect sizes. Sampling error affects the location and precision of confidence intervals. Meta-analytic resampling demonstrates that confidence intervals can haphazardly bounce around the true population parameter. Special software with graphical…

  17. Communication confidence in persons with aphasia.

    PubMed

    Babbitt, Edna M; Cherney, Leora R

    2010-01-01

    Communication confidence is a construct that has not been explored in the aphasia literature. Recently, national and international organizations have endorsed broader assessment methods that address quality of life and include participation, activity, and impairment domains as well as psychosocial areas. Individuals with aphasia encounter difficulties in all these areas on a daily basis in living with a communication disorder. Improvements are often reflected in narratives that are not typically included in standard assessments. This article illustrates how a new instrument measuring communication confidence might fit into a broad assessment framework and discusses the interaction of communication confidence, autonomy, and self-determination for individuals living with aphasia.

  18. Confidence Interval Procedures for Reliability Growth Analysis

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1977-06-01

    Plj2s tSAA - TECHNICAL RPORT NO. 197 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL PROCEDURES FOR RELIABILITY, GROWTH ANALYSIS LARRY H. CROW JUNE 1977 APPROVED FOR PUBLIC...dence Intervals for M(T). ¶-. fl [ ] 1 Siion IIS0III0N/AVAI Ale ITY ClOtS Next page is blank. So3 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL PROCIEDURIS• FOR RELTABILITY...and confidence interval procedures for the parameters B and P = X are presented in [l , [2], [4]. In the application of the Weibull process model to

  19. Asymptotic Theory for Nonparametric Confidence Intervals.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-07-01

    distributions. Ann. Math Statist. 14, 56-62. 24. ROY, S.N. and POTTHOFF, R.F. (1958). Confidence bounds on vector analogues of the "ratio of the mean" and...fl c,~_________ 14L TITLE feed &MV) S. TYPE or REPORT a PeftOo COVx:REC Asympeocic Theory for Nonaparuetric Technical Report Confidence Intevals 6...S..C-0S78 UNCLASSIFIED TŗU *uuuuumuuumhhhhmhhhm_4 ASYMPTOTIC THEORY FOR NONPARAMETRIC CONFIDENCE INTERVALS by Peter W. Glynn TECHNICAL REPORT NO. 63

  20. Balance System

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1988-01-01

    TherEx Inc.'s AT-1 Computerized Ataxiameter precisely evaluates posture and balance disturbances that commonly accompany neurological and musculoskeletal disorders. Complete system includes two-strain gauged footplates, signal conditioning circuitry, a computer monitor, printer and a stand-alone tiltable balance platform. AT-1 serves as assessment tool, treatment monitor, and rehabilitation training device. It allows clinician to document quantitatively the outcome of treatment and analyze data over time to develop outcome standards for several classifications of patients. It can evaluate specifically the effects of surgery, drug treatment, physical therapy or prosthetic devices.

  1. Efficient Computation Of Confidence Intervals Of Parameters

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1992-01-01

    Study focuses on obtaining efficient algorithm for estimation of confidence intervals of ML estimates. Four algorithms selected to solve associated constrained optimization problem. Hybrid algorithms, following search and gradient approaches, prove best.

  2. Developing Confidence Limits For Reliability Of Software

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Hayhurst, Kelly J.

    1991-01-01

    Technique developed for estimating reliability of software by use of Moranda geometric de-eutrophication model. Pivotal method enables straightforward construction of exact bounds with associated degree of statistical confidence about reliability of software. Confidence limits thus derived provide precise means of assessing quality of software. Limits take into account number of bugs found while testing and effects of sampling variation associated with random order of discovering bugs.

  3. Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2012-09-01

    assurance case claim. The framework is based on the notion of eliminative induction—the princi- ple (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in...eliminative induction. As first proposed by Francis Bacon [Schum 2001] and extended by L. Jonathan Cohen [Cohen 1970, 1977, 1989], eliminative induction is...eliminative in- duction—the principle (first put forward by Francis Bacon ) that confidence in the truth of a hypothesis (or claim) increases as reasons for

  4. Confidence regions of planar cardiac vectors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Dubin, S.; Herr, A.; Hunt, P.

    1980-01-01

    A method for plotting the confidence regions of vectorial data obtained in electrocardiology is presented. The 90%, 95% and 99% confidence regions of cardiac vectors represented in a plane are obtained in the form of an ellipse centered at coordinates corresponding to the means of a sample selected at random from a bivariate normal distribution. An example of such a plot for the frontal plane QRS mean electrical axis for 80 horses is also presented.

  5. Worse than enemies. The CEO's destructive confidant.

    PubMed

    Sulkowicz, Kerry J

    2004-02-01

    The CEO is often the most isolated and protected employee in the organization. Few leaders, even veteran CEOs, can do the job without talking to someone about their experiences, which is why most develop a close relationship with a trusted colleague, a confidant to whom they can tell their thoughts and fears. In his work with leaders, the author has found that many CEO-confidant relationships function very well. The confidants keep their leaders' best interests at heart. They derive their gratification vicariously, through the help they provide rather than through any personal gain, and they are usually quite aware that a person in their position can potentially abuse access to the CEO's innermost secrets. Unfortunately, almost as many confidants will end up hurting, undermining, or otherwise exploiting CEOs when the executives are at their most vulnerable. These confidants rarely make the headlines, but behind the scenes they do enormous damage to the CEO and to the organization as a whole. What's more, the leader is often the last one to know when or how the confidant relationship became toxic. The author has identified three types of destructive confidants. The reflector mirrors the CEO, constantly reassuring him that he is the "fairest CEO of them all." The insulator buffers the CEO from the organization, preventing critical information from getting in or out. And the usurper cunningly ingratiates himself with the CEO in a desperate bid for power. This article explores how the CEO-confidant relationship plays out with each type of adviser and suggests ways CEOs can avoid these destructive relationships.

  6. Exercise Leads to Faster Postural Reflexes, Improved Balance and Mobility, and Reduced Falls in Older Persons with Chronic Stroke

    PubMed Central

    Marigold, Daniel S.; Eng, Janice J.; Dawson, Andrew S.; Inglis, J. Timothy; Harris, Jocelyn E.; Gylfadóttir, Sif

    2011-01-01

    OBJECTIVES To determine the effect of two different community-based group exercise programs on functional balance, mobility, postural reflexes, and falls in older adults with stroke. DESIGN A randomized, clinical trial. SETTING Community centre. PARTICIPANTS Total of 61 community-dwelling older adults with chronic stroke. INTERVENTION Participants were randomly assigned to an Agility (n = 30) or Stretching/weight-shifting (n = 31) exercise group. Both groups exercised three times a week for 10 weeks. MEASUREMENTS Participants were assessed prior to, immediately after, and one-month following the intervention for Berg Balance, Timed Up and Go, step reaction time, Activities-specific Balance Confidence, and Nottingham Health Profile. Testing of standing postural reflexes and induced falls evoked by a translating platform was also performed. In addition, falls in the community were tracked for one year from the start of the interventions. RESULTS Although exercise led to improvements in all clinical outcome measures for both groups, the Agility group demonstrated greater improvement in step reaction time and paretic rectus femoris postural reflex onset latency compared to the Stretching/weight-shifting group. Further, induced falls on the platform were reduced in the Agility group. CONCLUSION Group exercise programs that include Agility or Stretching/weight shifting exercises improve postural reflexes, functional balance and mobility and may lead to a reduction of falls in older adults with chronic stroke. PMID:15743283

  7. Balancing Eggs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mills, Allan

    2014-01-01

    Theory predicts that an egg-shaped body should rest in stable equilibrium when on its side, balance vertically in metastable equilibrium on its broad end and be completely unstable on its narrow end. A homogeneous solid egg made from wood, clay or plastic behaves in this way, but a real egg will not stand on either end. It is shown that this…

  8. [Assessment of balance in community dwelling older adults: reliability and validity of the German version of the Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale].

    PubMed

    Schott, N

    2011-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to validate the German translation of the originally English Fullerton Advanced Balance Scale (FAB-D). The 10-item test battery is a performance-based measure that addresses the multiple dimensions of balance. The German FAB-D using a forward-backward procedure was examined by a sample of n = 96 community dwelling older adults (71,6 ± 7,5 years of age) who had reported no history of a fall in the previous 6 months (non-fallers) and 66 older adults (age 75,3 ± 7,3 years of age) who reported falling one or more times (recurrent fallers). The following internationally accepted instruments were used for validation: The Berg-Balance-Scale (BBS), the Activities-Specific Balance Confidence (ABC-D) scale, the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36), the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE), the Trail-Making-Test (TMT), and motor tests (balance, strength, mobility). Explorative and confirmative factor analysis showed the best fit for a one dimensional solution. Cronbach's alpha of the German version of the FAB-D was 0.988. Test-retest reliability for the total score was 0.965 and ranged from 0.86-0.88 for individual items. The scales correlate with convergent measures assessing postural control and falls-related confidence (BBS, r = 0.685; Timed-Up-and-Go-Test, r = -0.632; ABC-D, r = 0.561). Criterion validity of the FAB-D was established by statistically significant correlations between the total scale, and the subdimensions of the SF-36 (physical 0.52, mental 0.38), the PASE (0.29), the TMT A (-0.30) and B (-0.41), the Chair Rising Test (0.59) and the 10 m walk (normal velocity -0.49; fast velocity -0.56). Significant differences in the FAB-D scores were found in older adults with (30,3 ± 8,6) and without falls (36,1 ± 4,2). Older adults with a recent fall history scored lower on the FAB-D than older adults without a recent fall history. To conclude, the German version of the FAB-D has properties analogous to the original English

  9. Effect of Tai Chi Exercise Combined with Mental Imagery Theory in Improving Balance in a Diabetic and Elderly Population

    PubMed Central

    Alsubiheen, Abdulrahman; Petrofsky, Jerrold; Daher, Noha; Lohman, Everett; Balbas, Edward

    2015-01-01

    Background One of the effects of diabetes mellitus (DM), peripheral neuropathy, affects the sensation in the feet and can increase the chance of falling. The purpose of the study was to investigate the effect of 8 weeks of Tai Chi (TC) training combined with mental imagery (MI) on improving balance in people with diabetes and an age matched control group. Material/Methods Seventeen healthy subjects and 12 diabetic sedentary subjects ranging from 40–80 years of age were recruited. All subjects in both groups attended a Yang style of TC class using MI strategies, 2 sessions a week for 8 weeks. Each session was one hour long. Measures were taken using a balance platform test, an Activities-specific Balance Confidence (ABC) Scale, a one leg standing test (OLS), functional reach test (FRT) and hemoglobin A1C. These measures were taken twice, pre and post-study, for both groups. Results Both groups experienced significant improvements in ABC, OLS, FRT (P<0.01) after completing 8 weeks of TC exercise with no significant improvement between groups. Subjects using the balance platform test demonstrated improvement in balance in all different tasks with no significant change between groups. There was no significant change in HbA1C for the diabetic group. Conclusions All results showed an improvement in balance in the diabetic and the control groups; however, no significant difference between the groups was observed. Since the DM group had more problems with balance impairment at baseline than the control, the diabetic group showed the most benefit from the TC exercise. PMID:26454826

  10. Robot-assisted vs. sensory integration training in treating gait and balance dysfunctions in patients with multiple sclerosis: a randomized controlled trial

    PubMed Central

    Gandolfi, Marialuisa; Geroin, Christian; Picelli, Alessandro; Munari, Daniele; Waldner, Andreas; Tamburin, Stefano; Marchioretto, Fabio; Smania, Nicola

    2014-01-01

    Background: Extensive research on both healthy subjects and patients with central nervous damage has elucidated a crucial role of postural adjustment reactions and central sensory integration processes in generating and “shaping” locomotor function, respectively. Whether robotic-assisted gait devices might improve these functions in Multiple sclerosis (MS) patients is not fully investigated in literature. Purpose: The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of end-effector robot-assisted gait training (RAGT) and sensory integration balance training (SIBT) in improving walking and balance performance in patients with MS. Methods: Twenty-two patients with MS (EDSS: 1.5–6.5) were randomly assigned to two groups. The RAGT group (n = 12) underwent end-effector system training. The SIBT group (n = 10) underwent specific balance exercises. Each patient received twelve 50-min treatment sessions (2 days/week). A blinded rater evaluated patients before and after treatment as well as 1 month post treatment. Primary outcomes were walking speed and Berg Balance Scale. Secondary outcomes were the Activities-specific Balance Confidence Scale, Sensory Organization Balance Test, Stabilometric Assessment, Fatigue Severity Scale, cadence, step length, single and double support time, Multiple Sclerosis Quality of Life-54. Results: Between groups comparisons showed no significant differences on primary and secondary outcome measures over time. Within group comparisons showed significant improvements in both groups on the Berg Balance Scale (P = 0.001). Changes approaching significance were found on gait speed (P = 0.07) only in the RAGT group. Significant changes in balance task-related domains during standing and walking conditions were found in the SIBT group. Conclusion: Balance disorders in patients with MS may be ameliorated by RAGT and by SIBT. PMID:24904361

  11. Sample Size for Confidence Interval of Covariate-Adjusted Mean Difference

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2010-01-01

    This article provides a way to determine adequate sample size for the confidence interval of covariate-adjusted mean difference in randomized experiments. The standard error of adjusted mean difference depends on covariate variance and balance, which are two unknown quantities at the stage of planning sample size. If covariate observations are…

  12. Resuscitation of the Newborn: Simulating for Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Woodman, Anna; McCay, Wendy; Bates, Sarah E

    2016-01-01

    Introduction Non-pediatric trainees working in pediatrics in the UK are expected to attend newborn deliveries and provide initial newborn life support if needed. In Swindon, new junior doctors receive a 90-minute teaching session at the start of their pediatrics rotation, but the content has not previously been standardized, and it may be several weeks before a doctor attends a newborn delivery. Thus, the confidence and competence in newborn resuscitation of doctors attending deliveries can vastly vary. Methods A standardized teaching package was developed as part of the pediatrics induction program. This includes an interactive lecture on the physiology of the newborn, skills stations, and mini-simulations to consolidate skills. This is accompanied by a program of regular neonatal mini-simulations as part of the departmental morning teaching program. These sessions allow junior doctors to practice their skills in a safe, simulated environment and reinforce the newborn life support pathway. Results Qualitative and quantitative feedback was sought following delivery of the induction training session. Junior doctors were asked to rate their confidence before and after the induction session using Likert scales from 1 (least confident) to 5 (most confident). Median confidence in attending term deliveries increased from 2 (range 1 - 4) to 4 (2 - 5), P=0.008. There was evidence that confidence was maintained at one month following induction. Conclusions A simulation program has been successful at improving confidence among junior doctors in attending newborn deliveries. This has the potential to improve patient care and trainees’ experiences of their pediatrics placement. PMID:27774358

  13. Balance (or Vestibular) Rehabilitation

    MedlinePlus

    ... the Public / Hearing and Balance Balance (or Vestibular) Rehabilitation Audiologic (hearing), balance, and medical diagnostic tests help ... whether you are a candidate for vestibular (balance) rehabilitation. Vestibular rehabilitation is an individualized balance retraining exercise ...

  14. Simplified approach to confidence limits in radioimmunoassay

    SciTech Connect

    Baxter, R.C.

    1980-05-01

    A simple method of calculating confidence limits for radioimmunoassay data is presented. The method involves the use of the within-assay variation in dose estimate of three routine quality-control specimens, measured in repeated assays, to estimate the confidence limits for results on unknown samples. Results for control specimens are combined by calculating the unique quadratic curve fitting a graph of within-assay standard deviation vs mean value for each control. This method requires no special data accumulation or advanced computing equipment. For cortisol, lutropin, and thyroxine radioimmunassays, confidence limits calculated in this way have been compared with three calculated from the variance of the response variable B/Bq in repeated standard curves. Both methods agree well with actual limits observed when plasma pools containing a wide range of hormone concentrations are assayed repeatedly.

  15. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence

    PubMed Central

    Chua, Elizabeth F.; Hannula, Deborah E.; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one’s memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly, it is important to disentangle the factors which contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment, we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence. PMID:22171810

  16. Distinguishing highly confident accurate and inaccurate memory: insights about relevant and irrelevant influences on memory confidence.

    PubMed

    Chua, Elizabeth F; Hannula, Deborah E; Ranganath, Charan

    2012-01-01

    It is generally believed that accuracy and confidence in one's memory are related, but there are many instances when they diverge. Accordingly it is important to disentangle the factors that contribute to memory accuracy and confidence, especially those factors that contribute to confidence, but not accuracy. We used eye movements to separately measure fluent cue processing, the target recognition experience, and relative evidence assessment on recognition confidence and accuracy. Eye movements were monitored during a face-scene associative recognition task, in which participants first saw a scene cue, followed by a forced-choice recognition test for the associated face, with confidence ratings. Eye movement indices of the target recognition experience were largely indicative of accuracy, and showed a relationship to confidence for accurate decisions. In contrast, eye movements during the scene cue raised the possibility that more fluent cue processing was related to higher confidence for both accurate and inaccurate recognition decisions. In a second experiment we manipulated cue familiarity, and therefore cue fluency. Participants showed higher confidence for cue-target associations for when the cue was more familiar, especially for incorrect responses. These results suggest that over-reliance on cue familiarity and under-reliance on the target recognition experience may lead to erroneous confidence.

  17. [Normal confidence interval for a summary measure].

    PubMed

    Bernard, P M

    2000-10-01

    This paper proposes an approach for calculating the normal confidence interval of a weighted summary measure which requires a particular continuous transformation for its variance estimation. By using the transformation properties and applying the delta method, the variance of transformed measure is easily expressed in terms of the transformed specific measure variances and the squared weights. The confidence limits of the summary measure are easily deduced by inverse transformation of those of transformed measure. The method is illustrated by applying it to some well known epidemiological measures. It seems appropriate for application in stratified analysis context where size allows normal approximation.

  18. Detecting Disease in Radiographs with Intuitive Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Jaeger, Stefan

    2015-01-01

    This paper argues in favor of a specific type of confidence for use in computer-aided diagnosis and disease classification, namely, sine/cosine values of angles represented by points on the unit circle. The paper shows how this confidence is motivated by Chinese medicine and how sine/cosine values are directly related with the two forces Yin and Yang. The angle for which sine and cosine are equal (45°) represents the state of equilibrium between Yin and Yang, which is a state of nonduality that indicates neither normality nor abnormality in terms of disease classification. The paper claims that the proposed confidence is intuitive and can be readily understood by physicians. The paper underpins this thesis with theoretical results in neural signal processing, stating that a sine/cosine relationship between the actual input signal and the perceived (learned) input is key to neural learning processes. As a practical example, the paper shows how to use the proposed confidence values to highlight manifestations of tuberculosis in frontal chest X-rays. PMID:26495433

  19. Evaluating Measures of Optimism and Sport Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Fogarty, Gerard J.; Perera, Harsha N.; Furst, Andrea J.; Thomas, Patrick R.

    2016-01-01

    The psychometric properties of the Life Orientation Test-Revised (LOT-R), the Sport Confidence Inventory (SCI), and the Carolina SCI (CSCI) were examined in a study involving 260 athletes. The study aimed to test the dimensional structure, convergent and divergent validity, and invariance over competition level of scores generated by these…

  20. Current Developments in Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul

    2009-01-01

    Using published findings and by further analyses of existing data, the structure, validity and utility of the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale (ABC) is critically considered. Validity is primarily assessed through the scale's relationship with other existing scales as well as by looking for predicted differences. The utility of the ABC scale…

  1. Coefficient Alpha Bootstrap Confidence Interval under Nonnormality

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin; Newton, Matthew

    2012-01-01

    Three different bootstrap methods for estimating confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient alpha were investigated. In addition, the bootstrap methods were compared with the most promising coefficient alpha CI estimation methods reported in the literature. The CI methods were assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation utilizing conditions…

  2. Confident Communication: Speaking Tips for Educators.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parker, Douglas A.

    This resource book seeks to provide the building blocks needed for public speaking while eliminating the fear factor. The book explains how educators can perfect their oratorical capabilities as well as enjoy the security, confidence, and support needed to create and deliver dynamic speeches. Following an Introduction: A Message for Teachers,…

  3. Coefficient Omega Bootstrap Confidence Intervals: Nonnormal Distributions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Padilla, Miguel A.; Divers, Jasmin

    2013-01-01

    The performance of the normal theory bootstrap (NTB), the percentile bootstrap (PB), and the bias-corrected and accelerated (BCa) bootstrap confidence intervals (CIs) for coefficient omega was assessed through a Monte Carlo simulation under conditions not previously investigated. Of particular interests were nonnormal Likert-type and binary items.…

  4. Training for Job-Skill Confidence.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lingg, Mary-Ann

    1996-01-01

    Evaluation of the effectiveness of the Kmart Employment for Youth job preparation program showed that the 43 African American students ages 16-19 gained confidence in such employable skills as the ability to plan and develop a career, to make decisions, and to find a job. (JOW)

  5. Using seismology for regional confidence building

    SciTech Connect

    Nakanishi, K.K.

    1997-03-01

    Confidence building between regional parties can be facilitated through cooperative seismological research activities. Shared data, facilities, technology, and research results can (1) assure participants that nuclear testing is not taking place, (2) provide information that can be used to characterize the geophysical parameters of a region for earthquake hazard mitigation, and (3) support basic seismic research.

  6. Establishing confidence in CCV/ACT technology

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Holloway, R. B.; Shomber, H. A.

    1976-01-01

    Despite significant advancements in controls configured vehicles/active controls technology (CCV/ACT) in the past decade, few applications of this promising technology have appeared in recent aircraft designs. The status of CCV/ACT is summarized, and some of the constraints which are retarding its wider application are described. Suggestions toward establishing an increased level of confidence in the technology are given.

  7. Observed Consultation: Confidence and Accuracy of Assessors

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tweed, Mike; Ingham, Christopher

    2010-01-01

    Judgments made by the assessors observing consultations are widely used in the assessment of medical students. The aim of this research was to study judgment accuracy and confidence and the relationship between these. Assessors watched recordings of consultations, scoring the students on: a checklist of items; attributes of consultation; a…

  8. Toward Using Confidence Intervals to Compare Correlations

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zou, Guang Yong

    2007-01-01

    Confidence intervals are widely accepted as a preferred way to present study results. They encompass significance tests and provide an estimate of the magnitude of the effect. However, comparisons of correlations still rely heavily on significance testing. The persistence of this practice is caused primarily by the lack of simple yet accurate…

  9. The Effect of Adaptive Confidence Strategies in Computer-Assisted Instruction on Learning and Learner Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Warren, Richard Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to investigate the effects of including adaptive confidence strategies in instructionally sound computer-assisted instruction (CAI) on learning and learner confidence. Seventy-one general educational development (GED) learners recruited from various GED learning centers at community colleges in the southeast United…

  10. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-02-13

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence, and some of

  11. Building Public Confidence in Nuclear Activities

    SciTech Connect

    Isaacs, T

    2002-03-27

    Achieving public acceptance has become a central issue in discussions regarding the future of nuclear power and associated nuclear activities. Effective public communication and public participation are often put forward as the key building blocks in garnering public acceptance. A recent international workshop in Finland provided insights into other features that might also be important to building and sustaining public confidence in nuclear activities. The workshop was held in Finland in close cooperation with Finnish stakeholders. This was most appropriate because of the recent successes in achieving positive decisions at the municipal, governmental, and Parliamentary levels, allowing the Finnish high-level radioactive waste repository program to proceed, including the identification and approval of a proposed candidate repository site. Much of the workshop discussion appropriately focused on the roles of public participation and public communications in building public confidence. It was clear that well constructed and implemented programs of public involvement and communication and a sense of fairness were essential in building the extent of public confidence needed to allow the repository program in Finland to proceed. It was also clear that there were a number of other elements beyond public involvement that contributed substantially to the success in Finland to date. And, in fact, it appeared that these other factors were also necessary to achieving the Finnish public acceptance. In other words, successful public participation and communication were necessary but not sufficient. What else was important? Culture, politics, and history vary from country to country, providing differing contexts for establishing and maintaining public confidence. What works in one country will not necessarily be effective in another. Nonetheless, there appear to be certain elements that might be common to programs that are successful in sustaining public confidence and some of

  12. Effects of elastic-band resistance exercise on balance, mobility and gait function, flexibility and fall efficacy in elderly people

    PubMed Central

    Kwak, Cheol-Jin; Kim, You Lim; Lee, Suk Min

    2016-01-01

    [Purpose] The purpose of this study was to analyze the effects of elastic-band resistance exercise on balance, gait function, flexibility and fall efficacy in the elderly people of rural community. [Subjects and Methods] It is selected by 45 outpatients. They have come into the clinic continually to treat of physical therapy at least 1–2 times for a week. A group treated with both general physical therapy and elastic-band resistance exercise (23 patients), and the other group treated with only general physical therapy (22 patients). Elastic-band resistance exercise is composed of 8 movements of lower extremity joints. It is performed for 30 minutes during 8 weeks by 3 times for a week. It is measured and recorded at the pre and post test that sit and reach test (SRT), functional reach test (FRT), timed up and go test (TUG) for every subjects by measurement equipments. And, subjects performed for the form of performance and question as its rated scale by Berg’s balance scale (BBS), dynamic gait index (DGI), activities-specific balance confidence scale (ABC). [Results] In the study, both the elastic-band exercise group and the general physical therapy group showed a significant improvement in balance, gait function, flexibility and fall efficacy. And the group with elastic-band resistance exercise showed more effectiveness than the contrast group in value of variation. [Conclusion] From this study, it was confirmed that elastic-band resistance exercise has influence on balance, gait function, flexibility and fall efficacy are working for agriculture of elderly people of rural community. Based on this result, elastic-band resistance exercise can be better instrument and easier to elderly people of rural community for the improvement in balance, gait function, flexibility and fall efficacy as it performing along with and reciprocal physical therapy. PMID:27942147

  13. Balancing Certainty and Uncertainty in Clinical Practice

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kamhi, Alan G.

    2011-01-01

    Purpose: In this article, I question how practitioners can balance the certainty and confidence that they can help their patients with the uncertainty that makes them continually question their beliefs and assumptions. Method: I compare the mechanisms of science and models of clinical practice that may help practitioners achieve the right balance…

  14. Shaft balancing

    DOEpatents

    Irwin, John A.

    1979-01-01

    A gas turbine engine has an internal drive shaft including one end connected to a driven load and an opposite end connected to a turbine wheel and wherein the shaft has an in situ adjustable balance system near the critical center of a bearing span for the shaft including two 360.degree. rings piloted on the outer diameter of the shaft at a point accessible through an internal engine panel; each of the rings has a small amount of material removed from its periphery whereby both of the rings are precisely unbalanced an equivalent amount; the rings are locked circumferentially together by radial serrations thereon; numbered tangs on the outside diameter of each ring identify the circumferential location of unbalance once the rings are locked together; an aft ring of the pair of rings has a spline on its inside diameter that mates with a like spline on the shaft to lock the entire assembly together.

  15. Confidence and coverage for Bland-Altman limits of agreement and their approximate confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    Carkeet, Andrew; Goh, Yee Teng

    2016-09-01

    Bland and Altman described approximate methods in 1986 and 1999 for calculating confidence limits for their 95% limits of agreement, approximations which assume large subject numbers. In this paper, these approximations are compared with exact confidence intervals calculated using two-sided tolerance intervals for a normal distribution. The approximations are compared in terms of the tolerance factors themselves but also in terms of the exact confidence limits and the exact limits of agreement coverage corresponding to the approximate confidence interval methods. Using similar methods the 50th percentile of the tolerance interval are compared with the k values of 1.96 and 2, which Bland and Altman used to define limits of agreements (i.e. [Formula: see text]+/- 1.96Sd and [Formula: see text]+/- 2Sd). For limits of agreement outer confidence intervals, Bland and Altman's approximations are too permissive for sample sizes <40 (1999 approximation) and <76 (1986 approximation). For inner confidence limits the approximations are poorer, being permissive for sample sizes of <490 (1986 approximation) and all practical sample sizes (1999 approximation). Exact confidence intervals for 95% limits of agreements, based on two-sided tolerance factors, can be calculated easily based on tables and should be used in preference to the approximate methods, especially for small sample sizes.

  16. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2006-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge couldn't be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest that there may be important connections between the two for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  17. Nurturing Confidence in Preservice Elementary Science Teachers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Bleicher, Robert E.

    2007-12-01

    This study examined changes in personal science teaching self-efficacy (PSTE), outcome expectancy (STOE), and science conceptual understanding and relationships among these in preservice teachers. Seventy preservice teachers enrolled in science teaching methods courses participated in this study. PSTE, STOE, and science conceptual understanding increased significantly during participation in the course. The study established that novice learners with minimal prior knowledge could not be expected to understand and employ core concepts in their learning schema without extensive guidance. The relationship between science learning confidence and science teaching confidence has not been theoretically delineated in the area of science teacher education. Findings suggest there may be important connections between the 2 for preservice teachers that would be fruitful areas for future research.

  18. A primer on confidence intervals in psychopharmacology.

    PubMed

    Andrade, Chittaranjan

    2015-02-01

    Research papers and research summaries frequently present results in the form of data accompanied by 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Not all students and clinicians know how to interpret CIs. This article provides a nontechnical, nonmathematical discussion on how to understand and glean information from CIs; all explanations are accompanied by simple examples. A statistically accurate explanation about CIs is also provided. CIs are differentiated from standard deviations, standard errors, and confidence levels. The interpretation of narrow and wide CIs is discussed. Factors that influence the width of a CI are listed. Explanations are provided for how CIs can be used to assess statistical significance. The significance of overlapping and nonoverlapping CIs is considered. It is concluded that CIs are far more informative than, say, mere P values when drawing conclusions about a result.

  19. Efficient computation of parameter confidence intervals

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Murphy, Patrick C.

    1987-01-01

    An important step in system identification of aircraft is the estimation of stability and control derivatives from flight data along with an assessment of parameter accuracy. When the maximum likelihood estimation technique is used, parameter accuracy is commonly assessed by the Cramer-Rao lower bound. It is known, however, that in some cases the lower bound can be substantially different from the parameter variance. Under these circumstances the Cramer-Rao bounds may be misleading as an accuracy measure. This paper discusses the confidence interval estimation problem based on likelihood ratios, which offers a more general estimate of the error bounds. Four approaches are considered for computing confidence intervals of maximum likelihood parameter estimates. Each approach is applied to real flight data and compared.

  20. ;Agreement; in the IPCC Confidence measure

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Rehg, William; Staley, Kent

    2017-02-01

    The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has, in its most recent Assessment Report (AR5), articulated guidelines for evaluating and communicating uncertainty that include a qualitative scale of confidence. We examine one factor included in that scale: the ;degree of agreement.; Some discussions of the degree of agreement in AR5 suggest that the IPCC is employing a consensus-oriented social epistemology. We consider the application of the degree of agreement factor in practice in AR5. Our findings, though based on a limited examination, suggest that agreement attributions do not so much track the overall consensus among investigators as the degree to which relevant research findings substantively converge in offering support for IPCC claims. We articulate a principle guiding confidence attributions in AR5 that centers not on consensus but on the notion of support. In concluding, we tentatively suggest a pluralist approach to the notion of support.

  1. NASA's approach to flight confidence. [and safety

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Roth, G. L.

    1984-01-01

    NASA's confidence in the flight readiness of aerospace hardware and software is achieved by a thorough integration of safety activities into every program facet, from concept through the mission. This involves technical and administrative personnel, organizations that specify requirements, design, manufacturing, test and the operators. Reviews by inhouse and external specialists form an integral part of the assurance process. Examples of safety issues and their resolution for some power and propulsion functions are given (lithium cells, autoignition/fretting in high pressure oxygen environments, ignition sources from auxiliary power unit, and low thrust rocket engines). Finally, some comments on NASA's integrated safety activities and the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel's role in the NASA review and assessment process all of which provides added confidence in achieving a high level of mission safety and success.

  2. Confidence Sets for a Change-Point.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1986-10-01

    probability credible set for j. In fact, even without the explicit evaluation in (1), one knows from a general theorem of Stein (1965) and Hora and...confidence sets with smallest expected measure, Ann. Statist. , 10, 1283-94. Hora , R. B. and Buehler, R. J. (1966), Fiducial theory and invariant...simple cumulative sum type statistic for the change-point problem -’-"C with zero -one observations, Biometrika 67, 79-84. Raferty, A. E. and Akman, V

  3. Simultaneous Confidence Bands for Autoregressive Spectra.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1982-06-01

    CONFIDENCE BANDS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE SPECTRA H. Joseph Newton Marcello Pagano Institute of Statistics Department of Biostatistics Texas A&M University...AUTHOR(4) 8. CONTRACT OR GRANT NUMIUER(a) H. Joseph Newton and Marcello Pagano ONR N00014-82-MP-2001 ARU DAAG 29-80-C-0070 0. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME...Parzen (1974), Uirych and Bishop (1975), and Beamish and Priestley (1981), for example) despite 1) a continuing discussion of the problems of order

  4. Confidence as Bayesian Probability: From Neural Origins to Behavior.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Sigman, Mariano; Mainen, Zachary F

    2015-10-07

    Research on confidence spreads across several sub-fields of psychology and neuroscience. Here, we explore how a definition of confidence as Bayesian probability can unify these viewpoints. This computational view entails that there are distinct forms in which confidence is represented and used in the brain, including distributional confidence, pertaining to neural representations of probability distributions, and summary confidence, pertaining to scalar summaries of those distributions. Summary confidence is, normatively, derived or "read out" from distributional confidence. Neural implementations of readout will trade off optimality versus flexibility of routing across brain systems, allowing confidence to serve diverse cognitive functions.

  5. Confidence-Based Learning in Investment Analysis

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Serradell-Lopez, Enric; Lara-Navarra, Pablo; Castillo-Merino, David; González-González, Inés

    The aim of this study is to determine the effectiveness of using multiple choice tests in subjects related to the administration and business management. To this end we used a multiple-choice test with specific questions to verify the extent of knowledge gained and the confidence and trust in the answers. The tests were performed in a group of 200 students at the bachelor's degree in Business Administration and Management. The analysis made have been implemented in one subject of the scope of investment analysis and measured the level of knowledge gained and the degree of trust and security in the responses at two different times of the course. The measurements have been taken into account different levels of difficulty in the questions asked and the time spent by students to complete the test. The results confirm that students are generally able to obtain more knowledge along the way and get increases in the degree of trust and confidence in the answers. It is confirmed as the difficulty level of the questions set a priori by the heads of the subjects are related to levels of security and confidence in the answers. It is estimated that the improvement in the skills learned is viewed favourably by businesses and are especially important for job placement of students.

  6. On the Confidence Limit of Hilbert Spectrum

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Huang, Norden

    2003-01-01

    Confidence limit is a routine requirement for Fourier spectral analysis. But this confidence limit is established based on ergodic theory: For stationary process, temporal average equals the ensemble average. Therefore, one can divide the data into n-sections and treat each section as independent realization. Most natural processes in general, and climate data in particular, are not stationary; therefore, there is a need for the Hilbert Spectral analysis for such processes. Here ergodic theory is no longer applicable. We propose to use various adjustable parameters in the shifting processes of the Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) method to obtain an ensemble of Intrinsic Mode Function 0 sets. Based on such an ensemble, we introduce a statistical measure in. a form of confidence limits for the Intrinsic Mode Functions, and consequently, the Hilbert spectra. The criterion of selecting the various adjustable parameters is based on the orthogonality test of the resulting M F sets. Length-of-day data from 1962 to 2001 will be used to illustrate this new approach. Its implication in climate data analysis will also be discussed.

  7. The Confidence Information Ontology: a step towards a standard for asserting confidence in annotations.

    PubMed

    Bastian, Frederic B; Chibucos, Marcus C; Gaudet, Pascale; Giglio, Michelle; Holliday, Gemma L; Huang, Hong; Lewis, Suzanna E; Niknejad, Anne; Orchard, Sandra; Poux, Sylvain; Skunca, Nives; Robinson-Rechavi, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Biocuration has become a cornerstone for analyses in biology, and to meet needs, the amount of annotations has considerably grown in recent years. However, the reliability of these annotations varies; it has thus become necessary to be able to assess the confidence in annotations. Although several resources already provide confidence information about the annotations that they produce, a standard way of providing such information has yet to be defined. This lack of standardization undermines the propagation of knowledge across resources, as well as the credibility of results from high-throughput analyses. Seeded at a workshop during the Biocuration 2012 conference, a working group has been created to address this problem. We present here the elements that were identified as essential for assessing confidence in annotations, as well as a draft ontology--the Confidence Information Ontology--to illustrate how the problems identified could be addressed. We hope that this effort will provide a home for discussing this major issue among the biocuration community. Tracker URL: https://github.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology Ontology URL: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/BgeeDB/confidence-information-ontology/master/src/ontology/cio-simple.obo

  8. Mediated Sources of Public Confidence: Lazarsfeld and Merton Revisited.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simonson, Peter

    1999-01-01

    Contributes to scholarship on mass media's role in generating public confidence. Discusses the current crisis of confidence, confidence as "faith-together," varied routes by which media confer status, and ways both journalistic expose and public debate can generate cynicism and undercut public confidence. Sketches three types of civil…

  9. Engineering Student Self-Assessment through Confidence-Based Scoring

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yuen-Reed, Gigi; Reed, Kyle B.

    2015-01-01

    A vital aspect of an answer is the confidence that goes along with it. Misstating the level of confidence one has in the answer can have devastating outcomes. However, confidence assessment is rarely emphasized during typical engineering education. The confidence-based scoring method described in this study encourages students to both think about…

  10. Confidence sets for optimal factor levels of a response surface.

    PubMed

    Wan, Fang; Liu, Wei; Bretz, Frank; Han, Yang

    2016-12-01

    Construction of confidence sets for the optimal factor levels is an important topic in response surfaces methodology. In Wan et al. (2015), an exact (1-α) confidence set has been provided for a maximum or minimum point (i.e., an optimal factor level) of a univariate polynomial function in a given interval. In this article, the method has been extended to construct an exact (1-α) confidence set for the optimal factor levels of response surfaces. The construction method is readily applied to many parametric and semiparametric regression models involving a quadratic function. A conservative confidence set has been provided as an intermediate step in the construction of the exact confidence set. Two examples are given to illustrate the application of the confidence sets. The comparison between confidence sets indicates that our exact confidence set is better than the only other confidence set available in the statistical literature that guarantees the (1-α) confidence level.

  11. Diagnosing Anomalous Network Performance with Confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Settlemyer, Bradley W; Hodson, Stephen W; Kuehn, Jeffery A; Poole, Stephen W

    2011-04-01

    Variability in network performance is a major obstacle in effectively analyzing the throughput of modern high performance computer systems. High performance interconnec- tion networks offer excellent best-case network latencies; how- ever, highly parallel applications running on parallel machines typically require consistently high levels of performance to adequately leverage the massive amounts of available computing power. Performance analysts have usually quantified network performance using traditional summary statistics that assume the observational data is sampled from a normal distribution. In our examinations of network performance, we have found this method of analysis often provides too little data to under- stand anomalous network performance. Our tool, Confidence, instead uses an empirically derived probability distribution to characterize network performance. In this paper we describe several instances where the Confidence toolkit allowed us to understand and diagnose network performance anomalies that we could not adequately explore with the simple summary statis- tics provided by traditional measurement tools. In particular, we examine a multi-modal performance scenario encountered with an Infiniband interconnection network and we explore the performance repeatability on the custom Cray SeaStar2 interconnection network after a set of software and driver updates.

  12. Towards Measurement of Confidence in Safety Cases

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Denney, Ewen; Paim Ganesh J.; Habli, Ibrahim

    2011-01-01

    Arguments in safety cases are predominantly qualitative. This is partly attributed to the lack of sufficient design and operational data necessary to measure the achievement of high-dependability targets, particularly for safety-critical functions implemented in software. The subjective nature of many forms of evidence, such as expert judgment and process maturity, also contributes to the overwhelming dependence on qualitative arguments. However, where data for quantitative measurements is systematically collected, quantitative arguments provide far more benefits over qualitative arguments, in assessing confidence in the safety case. In this paper, we propose a basis for developing and evaluating integrated qualitative and quantitative safety arguments based on the Goal Structuring Notation (GSN) and Bayesian Networks (BN). The approach we propose identifies structures within GSN-based arguments where uncertainties can be quantified. BN are then used to provide a means to reason about confidence in a probabilistic way. We illustrate our approach using a fragment of a safety case for an unmanned aerial system and conclude with some preliminary observations

  13. Triage of OCR results using confidence scores

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sarkar, Prateek; Baird, Henry S.; Henderson, John

    2001-12-01

    We describe a technique for modeling the character recognition accuracy of an OCR system -- treated as a black box -- on a particular page of printed text based on an examination only of the output top-choice character classifications and, for each, a confidence score such as is supplied by many commercial OCR systems. Latent conditional independence (LCI) models perform better on this task, in our experience, than naive uniform thresholding methods. Given a sufficiently large and representative dataset of OCR (errorful) output and manually proofed (correct) text, we can automatically infer LCI models that exhibit a useful degree of reliability. A collaboration between a PARC research group and a Xerox legacy conversion service bureau has demonstrated that such models can significantly improve the productivity of human proofing staff by triaging -- that is, selecting to bypass manual inspection -- pages whose estimated OCR accuracy exceeds a threshold chosen to ensure that a customer-specified per-page accuracy target will be met with sufficient confidence. We report experimental results on over 1400 pages. Our triage software tools are running in production and will be applied to more than 5 million pages of multi-lingual text.

  14. The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey: confidence stabilizing, but preparations continue to erode.

    PubMed

    Helman, Ruth; Copeland, Craig; VanDerhei, Jack

    2010-03-01

    20TH ANNUAL RCS: The 2010 Retirement Confidence Survey-the 20th annual wave of this survey-finds that the record-low confidence levels measured during the past two years of economic decline appear to have bottomed out. The percentage of workers veryconfident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement has stabilized at 16 percent, which is statistically equivalent to the 20-year low of 13 percent measured in 2009 (Fig. 1, pg. 7). Retiree confidence about having a financially secure retirement has also stabilized, with 19 percent saying now they are very confident (statistically equivalent to the 20 percent measured in 2009) (Fig. 2, pg. 8). Worker confidence about paying for basic expenses in retirement has rebounded slightly, with 29 percent now saying they are very confident about having enough money to pay for basic expenses during retirement (up from 25 percent in 2009, but still down from 34 percent in 2008) (Fig. 3, pg. 9). PREPARATIONS STILL ERODING: Fewer workers report that they and/or their spouse have saved for retirement (69 percent, down from 75 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to 72 percent in 2008) (Fig. 11, page 14). Moreover, fewer workers say that they and/or their spouse are currently saving for retirement (60 percent, down from 65 percent in 2009 but statistically equivalent to percentages measured in other years) (Fig. 13, pg. 15). MORE PEOPLE HAVE NO SAVINGS AT ALL: An increased percentage of workers report they have virtually no savings and investments. Among RCS workers providing this type of information, 27 percent say they have less than $1,000 in savings (up from 20 percent in 2009). In total, more than half of workers (54 percent) report that the total value of their household's savings and investments, excluding the value of their primary home and any defined benefit plans, is less than $25,000 (Fig. 14, pg. 16). CLUELESS ABOUT SAVINGS GOALS: Many workers continue to be unaware of how much they need to save for

  15. Confidence and rejection in automatic speech recognition

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Colton, Larry Don

    Automatic speech recognition (ASR) is performed imperfectly by computers. For some designated part (e.g., word or phrase) of the ASR output, rejection is deciding (yes or no) whether it is correct, and confidence is the probability (0.0 to 1.0) of it being correct. This thesis presents new methods of rejecting errors and estimating confidence for telephone speech. These are also called word or utterance verification and can be used in wordspotting or voice-response systems. Open-set or out-of-vocabulary situations are a primary focus. Language models are not considered. In vocabulary-dependent rejection all words in the target vocabulary are known in advance and a strategy can be developed for confirming each word. A word-specific artificial neural network (ANN) is shown to discriminate well, and scores from such ANNs are shown on a closed-set recognition task to reorder the N-best hypothesis list (N=3) for improved recognition performance. Segment-based duration and perceptual linear prediction (PLP) features are shown to perform well for such ANNs. The majority of the thesis concerns vocabulary- and task-independent confidence and rejection based on phonetic word models. These can be computed for words even when no training examples of those words have been seen. New techniques are developed using phoneme ranks instead of probabilities in each frame. These are shown to perform as well as the best other methods examined despite the data reduction involved. Certain new weighted averaging schemes are studied but found to give no performance benefit. Hierarchical averaging is shown to improve performance significantly: frame scores combine to make segment (phoneme state) scores, which combine to make phoneme scores, which combine to make word scores. Use of intermediate syllable scores is shown to not affect performance. Normalizing frame scores by an average of the top probabilities in each frame is shown to improve performance significantly. Perplexity of the wrong

  16. How do I interpret a confidence interval?

    PubMed

    O'Brien, Sheila F; Yi, Qi Long

    2016-07-01

    A 95% confidence interval (CI) of the mean is a range with an upper and lower number calculated from a sample. Because the true population mean is unknown, this range describes possible values that the mean could be. If multiple samples were drawn from the same population and a 95% CI calculated for each sample, we would expect the population mean to be found within 95% of these CIs. CIs are sensitive to variability in the population (spread of values) and sample size. When used to compare the means of two or more treatment groups, a CI shows the magnitude of a difference between groups. This is helpful in understanding both the statistical significance and the clinical significance of a treatment. In this article we describe the basic principles of CIs and their interpretation.

  17. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The modal confidence factor (MCF) is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.00 for a distorted nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exists between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF are illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two-degree-of-freedom system with 20%, 40%, and 100% noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained 22% noise.

  18. Balance Food and Activity

    MedlinePlus

    ... eNewsletters Calendar Balance Food and Activity What is Energy Balance? Energy is another word for "calories." Your ... adults, fewer calories are needed at older ages. Energy Balance in Real Life Think of it as ...

  19. Dizziness and Balance

    MedlinePlus

    AUDIOLOGY Dizziness and Balance Inform ation Seri es Our balance system helps us walk, run, and move without falling. ... if I have a problem with balance or dizziness? It is important to see your doctor if ...

  20. Effects of dynamic and static stretching within general and activity specific warm-up protocols.

    PubMed

    Samson, Michael; Button, Duane C; Chaouachi, Anis; Behm, David G

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of the study was to determine the effects of static and dynamic stretching protocols within general and activity specific warm-ups. Nine male and ten female subjects were tested under four warm-up conditions including a 1) general aerobic warm-up with static stretching, 2) general aerobic warm-up with dynamic stretching, 3) general and specific warm-up with static stretching and 4) general and specific warm-up with dynamic stretching. Following all conditions, subjects were tested for movement time (kicking movement of leg over 0.5 m distance), countermovement jump height, sit and reach flexibility and 6 repetitions of 20 metre sprints. Results indicated that when a sport specific warm-up was included, there was an 0.94% improvement (p = 0.0013) in 20 meter sprint time with both the dynamic and static stretch groups. No such difference in sprint performance between dynamic and static stretch groups existed in the absence of the sport specific warm-up. The static stretch condition increased sit and reach range of motion (ROM) by 2.8% more (p = 0.0083) than the dynamic condition. These results would support the use of static stretching within an activity specific warm-up to ensure maximal ROM along with an enhancement in sprint performance. Key pointsActivity specific warm-up may improve sprint performance.Static stretching was more effective than dynamic stretching for increasing static range of motion.There was no effect of the warm-up protocols on countermovement jump height or movement time.

  1. Confidence intervals based on some weighting functions for the difference of two binomial proportions.

    PubMed

    Maruo, Kazushi; Kawai, Norisuke

    2014-06-15

    In this paper, we propose two new methods for computing confidence intervals for the difference of two independent binomial proportions in small sample cases. Several test-based exact confidence intervals have been developed to guarantee the nominal coverage probability in small sample cases. However, these methods are sometimes unnecessarily too conservative because they use the exact p-value for constructing confidence intervals by maximizing the tail probability to account for the worst configuration. In order to reduce conservatism, our new methods adopt the p-value weighted by two types of functions instead of the maximum p-value. Our proposed methods can be regarded as quasi-exact methods. The performance evaluation results showed that our methods are much less conservative than the exact method. Compared with other existing quasi-exact methods, generally, our methods possess coverage probabilities closer to the nominal confidence level and shorter expected confidence widths. In particular, the beta weighing method provides the most reasonable balance between accurate coverage probability and short interval width in small sample cases.

  2. Confidence Intervals Make a Difference: Effects of Showing Confidence Intervals on Inferential Reasoning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hoekstra, Rink; Johnson, Addie; Kiers, Henk A. L.

    2012-01-01

    The use of confidence intervals (CIs) as an addition or as an alternative to null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) has been promoted as a means to make researchers more aware of the uncertainty that is inherent in statistical inference. Little is known, however, about whether presenting results via CIs affects how readers judge the…

  3. Comparison of asymptotic confidence sets for regression in small samples.

    PubMed

    Kolobkov, Dmitry; Demin, Oleg; Metelkin, Evgeny

    2016-01-01

    In case of small samples, asymptotic confidence sets may be inaccurate, with their actual coverage probability far from a nominal confidence level. In a single framework, we consider four popular asymptotic methods of confidence estimation. These methods are based on model linearization, F-test, likelihood ratio test, and nonparametric bootstrapping procedure. Next, we apply each of these methods to derive three types of confidence sets: confidence intervals, confidence regions, and pointwise confidence bands. Finally, to estimate the actual coverage of these confidence sets, we conduct a simulation study on three regression problems. A linear model and nonlinear Hill and Gompertz models are tested in conditions of different sample size and experimental noise. The simulation study comprises calculation of the actual coverage of confidence sets over pseudo-experimental datasets for each model. For confidence intervals, such metrics as width and simultaneous coverage are also considered. Our comparison shows that the F-test and linearization methods are the most suitable for the construction of confidence intervals, the F-test - for confidence regions and the linearization - for pointwise confidence bands.

  4. A Robust Confidence Interval for Samples of Five Observations.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1979-11-01

    A robust confidence interval using biweights for the case of five observations is proposed when the underlying distribution has somewhat heavier...probabilities, the intervals proposed are highly efficient, in terms of the expected length of the confidence interval . (Author)

  5. Germany and America: Crisis of confidence

    SciTech Connect

    Asmus, R.D.

    1991-02-01

    The paper examines the deterioration in German-American relations. The reasons for this downturn in German-American relations are quite simple. Washington views the Persian Gulf crisis as a defining moment in European-American relations and in the creation of a new world order. It is also the first diplomatic test of a unified Germany and a new German-American relationship. It is a test that Germany is thus far seen as having failed for three reasons. First, from the outset many Americans sensed that Germans did not comprehend what this crisis meant for the United States. A second and, in many ways, more worrying factor was the growing sense that the Germans were not being good Europeans. The third and most serious American concern, however, was the unsettling appearance of a very selective German definition of collective defense and common security. The result has been a crisis of confidence in the performance of the German political elite that goes beyond the problems in German-American relations during the early 1980s and the INF debate.

  6. Modal confidence factor in vibration testing

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ibrahim, S. R.

    1978-01-01

    The theory and applications of a time domain modal test technique are presented. The method uses free decay of random responses from a structure under test to identify its modal characteristics namely, natural frequencies, damping factors, and mode shapes. The method can identify multimodal (highly coupled) systems and modes that have very small contribution in the responses. A method is presented to decrease the effects of high levels of noise in the data and thus improve the accuracy of identified parameters. This is accomplished using an oversized mathematical model. The concept of modal confidence factor (MCF) is developed. The MCF is a number calculated for every identified mode for a structure under test. The MCF varies from 0.000 for a distorted, nonlinear, or noise mode to 100.0 for a pure structural mode. The theory of the MCF is based on the correlation that exits between the modal deflection at a certain station and the modal deflection at the same station delayed in time. The theory and application of the MCF is illustrated by two experiments. The first experiment deals with simulated responses from a two degree of freedom system with 20 percent, 40 percent, and 100 percent noise added. The second experiment was run on a generalized payload model. The free decay response from the payload model contained about 22 percent noise.

  7. Contrasting Academic Behavioural Confidence in Mexican and European Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ochoa, Alma Rosa Aguila; Sander, Paul

    2012-01-01

    Introduction: Research with the Academic Behavioural Confidence scale using European students has shown that students have high levels of confidence in their academic abilities. It is generally accepted that people in more collectivist cultures have more realistic confidence levels in contrast to the overconfidence seen in individualistic European…

  8. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence.

    PubMed

    Zhang, YunHong; Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors' opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors' opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual's confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors' opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation.

  9. Assessing Undergraduate Students' Conceptual Understanding and Confidence of Electromagnetics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Leppavirta, Johanna

    2012-01-01

    The study examines how students' conceptual understanding changes from high confidence with incorrect conceptions to high confidence with correct conceptions when reasoning about electromagnetics. The Conceptual Survey of Electricity and Magnetism test is weighted with students' self-rated confidence on each item in order to infer how strongly…

  10. Opinion formation with time-varying bounded confidence

    PubMed Central

    Liu, QiPeng; Zhang, SiYing

    2017-01-01

    When individuals in social groups communicate with one another and are under the influence of neighbors’ opinions, they typically revise their own opinions to adapt to such peer opinions. The individual threshold of bounded confidence will thus be affected by both a change in individual confidence and by neighbor influence. Individuals thus update their own opinions with new bounded confidence, while their updated opinions also influence their neighbors’ opinions. Based on this reasoned factual assumption, we propose an opinion dynamics model with time-varying bounded confidence. A directed network is formed by the rule of the individual bounded confidence threshold. The threshold of individual bounded confidence involves both confidence variation and the in/out degree of the individual node. When the confidence variation is greater, an individual’s confidence in persisting in his own opinion in interactions is weaker, and the individual is more likely to adopt neighbors’ opinions. In networks, the in/out degree is determined by individual neighbors. Our main research involves the process of opinion evolution and the basic laws of opinion cluster formation. Group opinions converge exponentially to consensus with stable neighbors. An individual opinion evolution is determined by the average neighbor opinion effect strength. We also explore the conditions involved in forming a stable neighbor relationship and the influence of the confidence variation in the convergence of the threshold of bounded confidence. The results show that the influence on opinion evolution is greater with increased confidence variation. PMID:28264038

  11. A METHOD OF DETERMINING A CONFIDENCE INTERVAL FOR AVAILABILITY

    DTIC Science & Technology

    This report presents a method of determining a confidence interval for availability when it is estimated from the mean time between equipment...for a confidence interval for availability. An example is included to demonstrate the procedure of placing a confidence interval about the estimated availability.

  12. 7 CFR 97.18 - Applications handled in confidence.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 7 Agriculture 3 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Applications handled in confidence. 97.18 Section 97.18 Agriculture Regulations of the Department of Agriculture (Continued) AGRICULTURAL MARKETING... confidence. (a) Pending applications shall be handled in confidence. Except as provided below, no...

  13. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 8 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Confidences of a client. 1103.23 Section 1103.23... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his client's confidence outlasts the practitioner's employment by the client, and this duty extends to...

  14. Balance in Assessment

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    White, Richard

    2007-01-01

    The review by Black and Wiliam of national systems makes clear the complexity of assessment, and identifies important issues. One of these is "balance": balance between local and central responsibilities, balance between the weights given to various purposes of schooling, balance between weights for various functions of assessment, and balance…

  15. A Question of Balance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Claxton, David B.; Troy, Maridy; Dupree, Sarah

    2006-01-01

    Most authorities consider balance to be a component of skill-related physical fitness. Balance, however, is directly related to health, especially for older adults. Falls are a leading cause of injury and death among the elderly. Improved balance can help reduce falls and contribute to older people remaining physically active. Balance is a…

  16. Dynamic balance improvement program

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Butner, M. F.

    1983-01-01

    The reduction of residual unbalance in the space shuttle main engine (SSME) high pressure turbopump rotors was addressed. Elastic rotor response to unbalance and balancing requirements, multiplane and in housing balancing, and balance related rotor design considerations were assessed. Recommendations are made for near term improvement of the SSME balancing and for future study and development efforts.

  17. Balancing Vanguard Satellites

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Simkovich, A.; Baumann, Robert C.

    1961-01-01

    The Vanguard satellites and component parts were balanced within the specified limits by using a Gisholt Type-S balancer in combination with a portable International Research and Development vibration analyzer and filter, with low-frequency pickups. Equipment and procedures used for balancing are described; and the determination of residual imbalance is accomplished by two methods: calculation, and graphical interpretation. Between-the-bearings balancing is recommended for future balancing of payloads.

  18. On how the brain decodes vocal cues about speaker confidence.

    PubMed

    Jiang, Xiaoming; Pell, Marc D

    2015-05-01

    In speech communication, listeners must accurately decode vocal cues that refer to the speaker's mental state, such as their confidence or 'feeling of knowing'. However, the time course and neural mechanisms associated with online inferences about speaker confidence are unclear. Here, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to examine the temporal neural dynamics underlying a listener's ability to infer speaker confidence from vocal cues during speech processing. We recorded listeners' real-time brain responses while they evaluated statements wherein the speaker's tone of voice conveyed one of three levels of confidence (confident, close-to-confident, unconfident) or were spoken in a neutral manner. Neural responses time-locked to event onset show that the perceived level of speaker confidence could be differentiated at distinct time points during speech processing: unconfident expressions elicited a weaker P2 than all other expressions of confidence (or neutral-intending utterances), whereas close-to-confident expressions elicited a reduced negative response in the 330-500 msec and 550-740 msec time window. Neutral-intending expressions, which were also perceived as relatively confident, elicited a more delayed, larger sustained positivity than all other expressions in the 980-1270 msec window for this task. These findings provide the first piece of evidence of how quickly the brain responds to vocal cues signifying the extent of a speaker's confidence during online speech comprehension; first, a rough dissociation between unconfident and confident voices occurs as early as 200 msec after speech onset. At a later stage, further differentiation of the exact level of speaker confidence (i.e., close-to-confident, very confident) is evaluated via an inferential system to determine the speaker's meaning under current task settings. These findings extend three-stage models of how vocal emotion cues are processed in speech comprehension (e.g., Schirmer & Kotz, 2006) by

  19. Neural network versus activity-specific prediction equations for energy expenditure estimation in children.

    PubMed

    Ruch, Nicole; Joss, Franziska; Jimmy, Gerda; Melzer, Katarina; Hänggi, Johanna; Mäder, Urs

    2013-11-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the energy expenditure (EE) estimations of activity-specific prediction equations (ASPE) and of an artificial neural network (ANNEE) based on accelerometry with measured EE. Forty-three children (age: 9.8 ± 2.4 yr) performed eight different activities. They were equipped with one tri-axial accelerometer that collected data in 1-s epochs and a portable gas analyzer. The ASPE and the ANNEE were trained to estimate the EE by including accelerometry, age, gender, and weight of the participants. To provide the activity-specific information, a decision tree was trained to recognize the type of activity through accelerometer data. The ASPE were applied to the activity-type-specific data recognized by the tree (Tree-ASPE). The Tree-ASPE precisely estimated the EE of all activities except cycling [bias: -1.13 ± 1.33 metabolic equivalent (MET)] and walking (bias: 0.29 ± 0.64 MET; P < 0.05). The ANNEE overestimated the EE of stationary activities (bias: 0.31 ± 0.47 MET) and walking (bias: 0.61 ± 0.72 MET) and underestimated the EE of cycling (bias: -0.90 ± 1.18 MET; P < 0.05). Biases of EE in stationary activities (ANNEE: 0.31 ± 0.47 MET, Tree-ASPE: 0.08 ± 0.21 MET) and walking (ANNEE 0.61 ± 0.72 MET, Tree-ASPE: 0.29 ± 0.64 MET) were significantly smaller in the Tree-ASPE than in the ANNEE (P < 0.05). The Tree-ASPE was more precise in estimating the EE than the ANNEE. The use of activity-type-specific information for subsequent EE prediction equations might be a promising approach for future studies.

  20. Influence of a School-Based Cooking Course on Students' Food Preferences, Cooking Skills, and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Zahr, Rola; Sibeko, Lindiwe

    2017-03-01

    A quasi-experimental study was conducted to evaluate the influence of Project CHEF, a hands-on cooking and tasting program offered in Vancouver public schools, on students' food preferences, cooking skills, and confidence. Grade 4 and 5 students in an intervention group (n = 68) and a comparison group (n = 32) completed a survey at baseline and 2 to 3 weeks later. Students who participated in Project CHEF reported an increased familiarity and preference for the foods introduced through the program. This was statistically significant (P ≤ 0.05) for broccoli, swiss chard, carrots, and quinoa. A higher percentage of students exposed to Project CHEF reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in: cutting vegetables and fruit (97% vs 81%), measuring ingredients (67% vs 44%), using a knife (94% vs 82%), and making a balanced meal on their own (69% vs 34%). They also reported a statistically significant increase (P ≤ 0.05) in confidence making the recipes introduced in the program: fruit salad (85% vs 81%), minestrone soup (25% vs 10%), and vegetable tofu stir fry (39% vs 26%). Involving students in hands-on cooking and tasting programs can increase their preferences for unpopular or unfamiliar foods and provide them with the skills and cooking confidence they need to prepare balanced meals.

  1. Individual consistency in the accuracy and distribution of confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Ais, Joaquín; Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-01-01

    We examine which aspects of the confidence distributions - its shape, its bias toward higher or lower values, and its ability to distinguish correct from erred trials - are idiosyncratic of the who (individual specificity), the when (variability across days) and the what (task specificity). Measuring confidence across different sessions of four different perceptual tasks we show that: (1) Confidence distributions are virtually identical when measured in different days for the same subject and the same task, constituting a subjective fingerprint, (2) The capacity of confidence reports to distinguish correct from incorrect responses is only modestly (but significantly) correlated when compared across tasks, (3) Confidence distributions are very similar for tasks that involve different sensory modalities but have similar structure, (4) Confidence accuracy is independent of the mean and width of the confidence distribution, (5) The mean of the confidence distribution (an individual's confidence bias) constitutes the most efficient indicator to infer a subject's identity from confidence reports and (6) Confidence bias measured in simple perceptual decisions correlates with an individual's optimism bias measured with standard questionnaire.

  2. Relating confidence to information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-12-02

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing security risk results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to determine a qualitative measure of confidence in a qualitative reasoning result from the available information uncertainty in the result using membership values in the fuzzy sets of confidence. In this study information uncertainty is quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values. Measured values of information uncertainty in each result is used to obtain the confidence. The determined confidence values are used to compare competing scenarios and understand the influences on the desired result.

  3. Crisis Prevention Centers as confidence building measures: Suggestions for the Middle East

    SciTech Connect

    Pregenzer, A.L.

    1995-05-01

    Relationships between countries generally exist somewhere in the grey area between war and peace. Crisis prevention activities are important in this area, and should have two goals: stabilizing tense situations that could push countries toward war, and supporting or reinforcing efforts to move countries toward peace. A Crisis Prevention Center (CPC) should facilitate efforts to achieve these goals. Its functions can be grouped into three broad, interrelated categories: establishing and facilitating communication among participating countries; supporting negotiations and consensus-building on regional security issues; and supporting implementation of agreed confidence and security building measures. Technology will play a critical role in a CPC. Technology is required for establishing communication systems to ensure the timely flow of information between countries and to provide the means for organizing and analyzing this information. Technically-based cooperative monitoring can provide an objective source of information on mutually agreed issues, thereby supporting the implementation of confidence building measures and treaties. Technology can be a neutral subject of interaction and collaboration between technical communities from different countries, thereby providing an important channel for improving relationships. Potential first steps for a CPC in the Middle Ease could include establishing communication channels and a dedicated communications center in each country, together with an agreement to use the system as a ``Hot Line` in bilateral and multilateral-lateral emergency situations. Bilateral cooperative monitoring centers could be established to assist with implementation of agreements. A centrally located CPC could serve as a regional communications hub, coordinating a number of functions aimed at stabilizing regional tensions and supporting confidence building activities. Specific recommendations for confidence building activities are discussed.

  4. Measuring Patterns of Surgeon Confidence Using a Novel Assessment Tool.

    PubMed

    Farrell, Timothy M; Ghaderi, Iman; McPhail, Lindsee E; Alger, Amy R; Meyers, Michael O; Meyer, Anthony A

    2016-01-01

    Confidence should increase during surgical training and practice. However, few data exist regarding confidence of surgeons across this continuum. Confidence may develop differently in clinical and personal domains, or may erode as specialization or age restricts practice. A reliable scale of confidence is needed to track this competency. A novel survey was distributed to surgeons in private and academic settings. One hundred and thirty-four respondents completed this cross-sectional survey. Surgeons reported anticipated reactions to clinical scenarios within three patient care domains (acute inpatient, nonacute inpatient, and outpatient) and in personal spheres. Confidence scores were plotted against years of experience. Curves of best fit were generated and trends assessed. A subgroup completed a second survey after four years to assess the survey's reliability over time. During residency, there is steep improvement in confidence reported by surgeons in all clinical domains, with further increase for inpatient domains during transition into practice. Confidence in personal spheres also increases quickly during residency and thereafter. The surgeon confidence scale captures the expected acquisition of confidence during early surgical experience, and will have value in following trends in surgeon confidence as training and practice patterns change.

  5. Occlusal cranial balancing technique.

    PubMed

    Smith, Gerald H

    2007-01-01

    The acronym for Occlusal Cranial Balancing Technique is OCB. The OCB concept is based on the architectural principle of a level foundation. The principles of Occlusal Cranial Balancing are a monumental discovery and if applied will enhance total body function.

  6. Skylab water balance analysis

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Leonard, J. I.

    1977-01-01

    The water balance of the Skylab crew was analyzed. Evaporative water loss using a whole body input/output balance equation, water, body tissue, and energy balance was analyzed. The approach utilizes the results of several major Skylab medical experiments. Subsystems were designed for the use of the software necessary for the analysis. A partitional water balance that graphically depicts the changes due to water intake is presented. The energy balance analysis determines the net available energy to the individual crewman during any period. The balances produce a visual description of the total change of a particular body component during the course of the mission. The information is salvaged from metabolic balance data if certain techniques are used to reduce errors inherent in the balance method.

  7. Anomalous Evidence, Confidence Change, and Theory Change.

    PubMed

    Hemmerich, Joshua A; Van Voorhis, Kellie; Wiley, Jennifer

    2016-08-01

    A novel experimental paradigm that measured theory change and confidence in participants' theories was used in three experiments to test the effects of anomalous evidence. Experiment 1 varied the amount of anomalous evidence to see if "dose size" made incremental changes in confidence toward theory change. Experiment 2 varied whether anomalous evidence was convergent (of multiple types) or replicating (similar finding repeated). Experiment 3 varied whether participants were provided with an alternative theory that explained the anomalous evidence. All experiments showed that participants' confidence changes were commensurate with the amount of anomalous evidence presented, and that larger decreases in confidence predicted theory changes. Convergent evidence and the presentation of an alternative theory led to larger confidence change. Convergent evidence also caused more theory changes. Even when people do not change theories, factors pertinent to the evidence and alternative theories decrease their confidence in their current theory and move them incrementally closer to theory change.

  8. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOEpatents

    Decker, Derek E.

    1998-01-01

    A beamsplitter assembly that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting.

  9. Polarization-balanced beamsplitter

    DOEpatents

    Decker, D.E.

    1998-02-17

    A beamsplitter assembly is disclosed that includes several beamsplitter cubes arranged to define a plurality of polarization-balanced light paths. Each polarization-balanced light path contains one or more balanced pairs of light paths, where each balanced pair of light paths includes either two transmission light paths with orthogonal polarization effects or two reflection light paths with orthogonal polarization effects. The orthogonal pairing of said transmission and reflection light paths cancels polarization effects otherwise caused by beamsplitting. 10 figs.

  10. Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means (CIM4RM)

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2010-08-01

    RDECOIW 40 Years of SAA Excellence in Analysis AMSAA TECHNICAL REPORT NO. TR-2010-35 CONFIDENCE INTERVAL METHODOLOGY FOR RATIO MEANS (CIM4RM...COVERED Technical Report 4 TITLE AND SUBTITLE Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means (CIM4RM) 5 FUNDING NUMBERS 6 AUTHOR!SI John Nierwinski...LIST OF ACRONYMS CIM4RM - Confidence Interval Methodology for Ratio Means MH - Man-Hours MR - Maintenance Ratio PCM - Parts Cost per Mile CI

  11. Wind Tunnel Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Warner, Edward P; Norton, F H

    1920-01-01

    Report embodies a description of the balance designed and constructed for the use of the National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics at Langley Field, and also deals with the theory of sensitivity of balances and with the errors to which wind tunnel balances of various types are subject.

  12. Coaching for Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Larson, Bonnie

    2001-01-01

    Discusses coaching for balance the integration of the whole self: physical (body), intellectual (mind), spiritual (soul), and emotional (heart). Offers four ways to identify problems and tell whether someone is out of balance and four coaching techniques for creating balance. (Contains 11 references.) (JOW)

  13. Human Balance System

    MedlinePlus

    ... and vision problems, and difficulty with concentration and memory. What is balance? Balance is the ability to maintain the body’s center of mass over its base of support. 1 A properly functioning balance system allows humans to see clearly while moving, identify orientation with ...

  14. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory

    PubMed Central

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework. PMID:25566135

  15. Confidence measurement in the light of signal detection theory.

    PubMed

    Massoni, Sébastien; Gajdos, Thibault; Vergnaud, Jean-Christophe

    2014-01-01

    We compare three alternative methods for eliciting retrospective confidence in the context of a simple perceptual task: the Simple Confidence Rating (a direct report on a numerical scale), the Quadratic Scoring Rule (a post-wagering procedure), and the Matching Probability (MP; a generalization of the no-loss gambling method). We systematically compare the results obtained with these three rules to the theoretical confidence levels that can be inferred from performance in the perceptual task using Signal Detection Theory (SDT). We find that the MP provides better results in that respect. We conclude that MP is particularly well suited for studies of confidence that use SDT as a theoretical framework.

  16. The antecedents and belief-polarized effects of thought confidence.

    PubMed

    Chou, Hsuan-Yi; Lien, Nai-Hwa; Liang, Kuan-Yu

    2011-01-01

    This article investigates 2 possible antecedents of thought confidence and explores the effects of confidence induced before or during ad exposure. The results of the experiments indicate that both consumers' dispositional optimism and spokesperson attractiveness have significant effects on consumers' confidence in thoughts that are generated after viewing the advertisement. Higher levels of thought confidence will influence the quality of the thoughts that people generate, lead to either positively or negatively polarized message processing, and therefore induce better or worse advertising effectiveness, depending on the valence of thoughts. The authors posit the belief-polarization hypothesis to explain these findings.

  17. Misinterpreting eyewitness expressions of confidence: The featural justification effect.

    PubMed

    Dodson, Chad S; Dobolyi, David G

    2015-06-01

    How do we know eyewitness statements of confidence are interpreted accurately by others? When eyewitnesses provide a verbal expression of confidence about a lineup identification, such as I'm fairly certain it's him, how well do others understand the intended meaning of this statement of confidence? And, how is this perception of the meaning influenced by justifications of the level of confidence, such as when eyewitnesses say, I remember his chin? The answers to these questions are unknown, as there is no research on how others interpret the intended meaning of eyewitness confidence. Three experiments show that an additional justification of confidence, relative to seeing a confidence statement alone, can increase misunderstanding in others' estimation of the meaning of the expression of confidence. Moreover, this justification-induced increase in misunderstanding only occurs when the justification refers to an observable facial feature and not when it refers to an unobservable quality (e.g., He is very familiar). Even more noteworthy, both Experiments 2 and 3 show that this featural justification effect is strongest when eyewitnesses express absolute certainty in an identification, such as by stating I am positive. When a highly confident assertion is accompanied by a featural justification others will be most likely to misinterpret the intended meaning.

  18. Relating confidence to measured information uncertainty in qualitative reasoning

    SciTech Connect

    Chavez, Gregory M; Zerkle, David K; Key, Brian P; Shevitz, Daniel W

    2010-10-07

    Qualitative reasoning makes use of qualitative assessments provided by subject matter experts to model factors such as security risk. Confidence in a result is important and useful when comparing competing results. Quantifying the confidence in an evidential reasoning result must be consistent and based on the available information. A novel method is proposed to relate confidence to the available information uncertainty in the result using fuzzy sets. Information uncertainty can be quantified through measures of non-specificity and conflict. Fuzzy values for confidence are established from information uncertainty values that lie between the measured minimum and maximum information uncertainty values.

  19. Cortical alpha activity predicts the confidence in an impending action

    PubMed Central

    Kubanek, Jan; Hill, N. Jeremy; Snyder, Lawrence H.; Schalk, Gerwin

    2015-01-01

    When we make a decision, we experience a degree of confidence that our choice may lead to a desirable outcome. Recent studies in animals have probed the subjective aspects of the choice confidence using confidence-reporting tasks. These studies showed that estimates of the choice confidence substantially modulate neural activity in multiple regions of the brain. Building on these findings, we investigated the neural representation of the confidence in a choice in humans who explicitly reported the confidence in their choice. Subjects performed a perceptual decision task in which they decided between choosing a button press or a saccade while we recorded EEG activity. Following each choice, subjects indicated whether they were sure or unsure about the choice. We found that alpha activity strongly encodes a subject's confidence level in a forthcoming button press choice. The neural effect of the subjects' confidence was independent of the reaction time and independent of the sensory input modeled as a decision variable. Furthermore, the effect is not due to a general cognitive state, such as reward expectation, because the effect was specifically observed during button press choices and not during saccade choices. The neural effect of the confidence in the ensuing button press choice was strong enough that we could predict, from independent single trial neural signals, whether a subject was going to be sure or unsure of an ensuing button press choice. In sum, alpha activity in human cortex provides a window into the commitment to make a hand movement. PMID:26283892

  20. Assessment of elderly people in general practice. 3. Confiding relationships.

    PubMed Central

    Iliffe, S; Haines, A; Stein, A; Gallivan, S

    1991-01-01

    Little is known about the importance of confiding relationships in elderly people. Associations between lack of confiding relationships and depression, lifestyle characteristics, medication use, and contacts with doctors were studied by interviewing a random sample of 235 elderly people aged 75 years and over registered with nine general practices in inner London. It was found that men were not significantly more likely than women to report lack of confiding relationships. Married people of both sexes were more likely to have confiding relationships than those who were single, separated, divorced or widowed. Depression was not associated with lack of a confiding relationship, but those lacking such relationships were significantly more likely to smoke, and were prescribed significantly more medicines than those with confiding relationships. Individuals without a confiding relationship were significantly less likely to admit to any alcohol consumption in the previous three months, suggesting that alcohol consumption in this age group is largely a social phenomenon. Confiding relationships do not appear to confer strong protection against depression and a question on confiding relationships should not therefore be routinely incorporated into surveillance programmes for elderly people in the community. PMID:1807305

  1. Reconceptualizing balance: attributes associated with balance performance.

    PubMed

    Thomas, Julia C; Odonkor, Charles; Griffith, Laura; Holt, Nicole; Percac-Lima, Sanja; Leveille, Suzanne; Ni, Pensheng; Latham, Nancy K; Jette, Alan M; Bean, Jonathan F

    2014-09-01

    Balance tests are commonly used to screen for impairments that put older adults at risk for falls. The purpose of this study was to determine the attributes that were associated with balance performance as measured by the Frailty and Injuries: Cooperative Studies of Intervention Techniques (FICSIT) balance test. This study was a cross-sectional secondary analysis of baseline data from a longitudinal cohort study, the Boston Rehabilitative Impairment Study of the Elderly (Boston RISE). Boston RISE was performed in an outpatient rehabilitation research center and evaluated Boston area primary care patients aged 65 to 96 (N=364) with self-reported difficulty or task-modification climbing a flight of stairs or walking 1/2 of a mile. The outcome measure was standing balance as measured by the FICSIT-4 balance assessment. Other measures included: self-efficacy, pain, depression, executive function, vision, sensory loss, reaction time, kyphosis, leg range of motion, trunk extensor muscle endurance, leg strength and leg velocity at peak power. Participants were 67% female, had an average age of 76.5 (±7.0) years, an average of 4.1 (±2.0) chronic conditions, and an average FICSIT-4 score of 6.7 (±2.2) out of 9. After adjusting for age and gender, attributes significantly associated with balance performance were falls self-efficacy, trunk extensor muscle endurance, sensory loss, and leg velocity at peak power. FICSIT-4 balance performance is associated with a number of behavioral and physiologic attributes, many of which are amenable to rehabilitative treatment. Our findings support a consideration of balance as multidimensional activity as proposed by the current International Classification of Functioning, Disability, and Health (ICF) model.

  2. Self-efficacy mediates the relationship between balance/walking performance, activity, and participation after stroke

    PubMed Central

    Moore, Meghan F; Pohlig, Ryan; Reisman, Darcy

    2015-01-01

    Background Many outcome measures (OM) that assess individuals’ ability or beliefs in their ability to perform tasks exist to evaluate activity and participation after stroke; however, the relationship between various OM and activity/participation is unclear. Objective The purpose of this study was to explore the relationships between different OM and activity and participation in people after stroke. Methods 59 subjects post-stroke participated in an assessment including self-selected walking speed, 6 minute walk test, Timed “Up and Go” Test, Berg Balance Scale, Functional Gait Assessment, Walk 12, and Activity-specific Balance Confidence Scale. Step Activity Monitoring (SAM) was used as a measure of activity and Stroke Impact Scale-Participation (SIS-P) as a measure of participation. Exploratory Factor Analysis was performed including all measures except SAM and SIS-P. Two factors were extracted and termed performance based (PB) and self-efficacy (SE). A Path Analysis assessed the role of SE as a mediator in the relationships of PB and SAM/SIS-P. Results In the path analysis, PB significantly predicts SE (p < 0.001, b=0.44), but not SAM or SIS-P (p > 0.05, b=0.25 and b=0.11 respectively). SE significantly predicts both SAM and SIS-P (p < 0.001, b=0.46 and b=0.59 respectively). The Indirect Effects of PB on SAM and SIS-P were significant (p < 0.001; b=0.20 and b=0.26 respectively). Conclusion These results suggest that SE mediates the relationship between PB and activity and participation after stroke, reinforcing that improving activity and participation is more complicated than only targeting performance. Clinicians should administer SE and PB measures to determine the most accurate view of patients after stroke and seek to improve SE through interventions. PMID:26653764

  3. Accuracy of Optimized Branched Algorithms to Assess Activity-Specific PAEE

    PubMed Central

    Edwards, Andy G.; Hill, James O.; Byrnes, William C.; Browning, Raymond C.

    2009-01-01

    PURPOSE To assess the activity-specific accuracy achievable by branched algorithm (BA) analysis of simulated daily-living physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) within a sedentary population. METHODS Sedentary men (n=8) and women (n=8) first performed a treadmill calibration protocol, during which heart rate (HR), accelerometry (ACC), and PAEE were measured in 1-minute epochs. From these data, HR-PAEE, and ACC-PAEE regressions were constructed and used in each of six analytic models to predict PAEE from ACC and HR data collected during a subsequent simulated daily-living protocol. Criterion PAEE was measured during both protocols via indirect calorimetry. The accuracy achieved by each model was assessed by the root mean square of the difference between model-predicted daily–living PAEE and the criterion daily-living PAEE (expressed here as % of mean daily living PAEE). RESULTS Across the range of activities an unconstrained post hoc optimized branched algorithm best predicted criterion PAEE. Estimates using individual calibration were generally more accurate than those using group calibration (14 vs. 16 % error, respectively). These analyses also performed well within each of the six daily-living activities, but systematic errors appeared for several of those activities, which may be explained by an inability of the algorithm to simultaneously accommodate a heterogeneous range of activities. Analyses of between mean square error by subject and activity suggest that optimization involving minimization of RMS for total daily-living PAEE is associated with decreased error between subjects but increased error between activities. CONCLUSION The performance of post hoc optimized branched algorithms may be limited by heterogeneity in the daily-living activities being performed. PMID:19952842

  4. Activity, specificity, and titer of naturally occurring canine anti-DEA 7 antibodies.

    PubMed

    Spada, Eva; Proverbio, Daniela; Baggiani, Luciana; Canzi, Ilaria; Perego, Roberta

    2016-11-01

    The reported prevalence of naturally occurring anti-dog erythrocyte antigen (DEA) 7 antibodies in DEA 7-negative dogs is as high as 50%. Characterization of these antibodies may better define their importance in canine transfusion medicine. We determined in vitro activity, specificity, and titer of anti-DEA 7 antibodies in DEA 7-negative dogs. Plasma samples from 317 DEA 7-negative dogs were cross-matched with DEA 7-positive red blood cells (RBCs) using gel column technology. Agglutination occurred with DEA 7-positive RBCs but not with DEA 7-negative RBCs in 73 samples (23%), which were hence classified as containing anti-DEA 7 antibodies. These samples were evaluated for hemolytic and agglutinating activity, strength of agglutination, and antibody specificity and titers. All samples showed agglutination but none showed hemolysis. Gel agglutination was graded as 1+ for 20 samples (27%), 2+ for 49 samples (67%), 3+ for 4 samples (6%); no samples were graded 4+. The agglutination titer was <1:2 for 51 samples (73%), 1:2 for 13 samples (19%), 1:4 for 4 samples (5%), and 1:8 for 2 samples (3%). Of 16 samples treated with 2-mercaptoethanol, 11 samples (69%) contained only IgM, 4 samples (25%) exhibited only IgG activity, and 1 sample (6%) had both IgG and IgM activity. Low titers of warm, weakly agglutinating, mostly naturally occurring IgM anti-DEA 7 antibodies were found in 23% of DEA 7-negative dogs. The presence of naturally occurring anti-DEA 7 antibodies suggests that cross-matching of canine blood recipients is advisable, even at first transfusion, to minimize delayed transfusion reactions.

  5. Music Education Preservice Teachers' Confidence in Resolving Behavior Problems

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hedden, Debra G.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate whether there would be a change in preservice teachers' (a) confidence concerning the resolution of behavior problems, (b) tactics for resolving them, (c) anticipation of problems, (d) fears about management issues, and (e) confidence in methodology and pedagogy over the time period of a one-semester…

  6. Confidence and memory: assessing positive and negative correlations.

    PubMed

    Roediger, Henry L; DeSoto, K Andrew

    2014-01-01

    The capacity to learn and remember surely evolved to help animals solve problems in their quest to reproduce and survive. In humans we assume that metacognitive processes also evolved, so that we know when to trust what we remember (i.e., when we have high confidence in our memories) and when not to (when we have low confidence). However this latter feature has been questioned by researchers, with some finding a high correlation between confidence and accuracy in reports from memory and others finding little to no correlation. In two experiments we report a recognition memory paradigm that, using the same materials (categorised lists), permits the study of positive correlations, zero correlations, and negative correlations between confidence and accuracy within the same procedure. We had subjects study words from semantic categories with the five items most frequently produced in norms omitted from the list; later, subjects were given an old/new recognition test and made confidence ratings on their judgements. Although the correlation between confidence and accuracy for studied items was generally positive, the correlation for the five omitted items was negative in some methods of analysis. We pinpoint the similarity between lures and targets as creating inversions between confidence and accuracy in memory. We argue that, while confidence is generally a useful indicant of accuracy in reports from memory, in certain environmental circumstances even adaptive processes can foster illusions of memory. Thus understanding memory illusions is similar to understanding perceptual illusions: Processes that are usually adaptive can go awry under certain circumstances.

  7. The Metamemory Approach to Confidence: A Test Using Semantic Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Brewer, William F.; Sampaio, Cristina

    2012-01-01

    The metamemory approach to memory confidence was extended and elaborated to deal with semantic memory tasks. The metamemory approach assumes that memory confidence is based on the products and processes of a completed memory task, as well as metamemory beliefs that individuals have about how their memory products and processes relate to memory…

  8. A Note on Confidence Interval Estimation and Margin of Error

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gilliland, Dennis; Melfi, Vince

    2010-01-01

    Confidence interval estimation is a fundamental technique in statistical inference. Margin of error is used to delimit the error in estimation. Dispelling misinterpretations that teachers and students give to these terms is important. In this note, we give examples of the confusion that can arise in regard to confidence interval estimation and…

  9. Confidence Sharing in the Vocational Counselling Interview: Emergence and Repercussions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Olry-Louis, Isabelle; Bremond, Capucine; Pouliot, Manon

    2012-01-01

    Confidence sharing is an asymmetrical dialogic episode to which both parties consent, in which one reveals something personal to the other who participates in the emergence and unfolding of the confidence. We describe how this is achieved at a discursive level within vocational counselling interviews. Based on a corpus of 64 interviews, we analyse…

  10. True and False Memories, Parietal Cortex, and Confidence Judgments

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Urgolites, Zhisen J.; Smith, Christine N.; Squire, Larry R.

    2015-01-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory).…

  11. A (revised) confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Vaubaillon, J.

    2016-01-01

    A confidence index for the forecasting of meteor showers is presented. The goal is to provide users with information regarding the way the forecasting is performed, so several degrees of confidence is achieved. This paper presents the meaning of the index coding system.

  12. True and false memories, parietal cortex, and confidence judgments.

    PubMed

    Urgolites, Zhisen J; Smith, Christine N; Squire, Larry R

    2015-11-01

    Recent studies have asked whether activity in the medial temporal lobe (MTL) and the neocortex can distinguish true memory from false memory. A frequent complication has been that the confidence associated with correct memory judgments (true memory) is typically higher than the confidence associated with incorrect memory judgments (false memory). Accordingly, it has often been difficult to know whether a finding is related to memory confidence or memory accuracy. In the current study, participants made recognition memory judgments with confidence ratings in response to previously studied scenes and novel scenes. The left hippocampus and 16 other brain regions distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were different for the two conditions. Only three regions (all in the parietal cortex) distinguished true and false memories when confidence ratings were equated. These findings illustrate the utility of taking confidence ratings into account when identifying brain regions associated with true and false memories. Neural correlates of true and false memories are most easily interpreted when confidence ratings are similar for the two kinds of memories.

  13. Confidence set interference with a prior quadratic bound. [in geophysics

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    Neyman's (1937) theory of confidence sets is developed as a replacement for Bayesian interference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) when the prior information is a hard quadratic bound. It is recommended that BI and SI be replaced by confidence set interference (CSI) only in certain circumstances. The geomagnetic problem is used to illustrate the general theory of CSI.

  14. Confidence Scoring of Speaking Performance: How Does Fuzziness become Exact?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jin, Tan; Mak, Barley; Zhou, Pei

    2012-01-01

    The fuzziness of assessing second language speaking performance raises two difficulties in scoring speaking performance: "indistinction between adjacent levels" and "overlap between scales". To address these two problems, this article proposes a new approach, "confidence scoring", to deal with such fuzziness, leading to "confidence" scores between…

  15. Confidence Intervals for Effect Sizes: Applying Bootstrap Resampling

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Banjanovic, Erin S.; Osborne, Jason W.

    2016-01-01

    Confidence intervals for effect sizes (CIES) provide readers with an estimate of the strength of a reported statistic as well as the relative precision of the point estimate. These statistics offer more information and context than null hypothesis statistic testing. Although confidence intervals have been recommended by scholars for many years,…

  16. Prospective Teachers' Problem Solving Skills and Self-Confidence Levels

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gursen Otacioglu, Sena

    2008-01-01

    The basic objective of the research is to determine whether the education that prospective teachers in different fields receive is related to their levels of problem solving skills and self-confidence. Within the mentioned framework, the prospective teachers' problem solving and self-confidence levels have been examined under several variables.…

  17. Confidence Limits for Maximum Word-Recognition Scores.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dubno, Judy R.; And Others

    1995-01-01

    This experiment sought to define a confidence limit for maximum word-recognition scores obtained from 212 young and elderly adults with confirmed cochlear hearing loss. A 95% confidence limit was found and supported through analysis, although it is suggested that, in some cases, word recognition should be measured at additional levels to obtain…

  18. Lower Confidence Interval Bounds for Coherent Systems with Cyclic Components

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1990-09-01

    Three lower confidence interval estimation procedures for system reliability of coherent systems with cyclic components are developed and their...failure times and applied to yield a lower confidence interval procedures for the reliability of coherent systems with cyclic and continuously operating components.

  19. New Confidence Interval Estimators Using Standardized Time Series.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1984-12-01

    We develop new confidence interval estimators for the underlying mean of a stationary simulation process. These estimators can be viewed as...generalizations of Schruben’s so-called standardized time series area confidence interval estimators. Various properties of the new estimators are given.

  20. Information and Communication: Tools for Increasing Confidence in the Schools.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    Beginning with a review of signs and signals of public attitudes toward American education over the last 15 years, this paper analyzes some concerns regarding public confidence in public schools. Following a brief introduction, issues involved in the definition and behavioral attributes of confidence are mentioned. A synopsis of three approaches…

  1. Trust, confidence, and the 2008 global financial crisis.

    PubMed

    Earle, Timothy C

    2009-06-01

    The 2008 global financial crisis has been compared to a "once-in-a-century credit tsunami," a disaster in which the loss of trust and confidence played key precipitating roles and the recovery from which will require the restoration of these crucial factors. Drawing on the analogy between the financial crisis and environmental and technological hazards, recent research on the role of trust and confidence in the latter is used to provide a perspective on the former. Whereas "trust" and "confidence" are used interchangeably and without explicit definition in most discussions of the financial crisis, this perspective uses the TCC model of cooperation to clearly distinguish between the two and to demonstrate how this distinction can lead to an improved understanding of the crisis. The roles of trust and confidence-both in precipitation and in possible recovery-are discussed for each of the three major sets of actors in the crisis, the regulators, the banks, and the public. The roles of trust and confidence in the larger context of risk management are also examined; trust being associated with political approaches, confidence with technical. Finally, the various stances that government can take with regard to trust-such as supportive or skeptical-are considered. Overall, it is argued that a clear understanding of trust and confidence and a close examination of the specific, concrete circumstances of a crisis-revealing when either trust or confidence is appropriate-can lead to useful insights for both recovery and prevention of future occurrences.

  2. Development of Confidence in Child Behavior Management through Role Playing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kress, Gerard C., Jr.; Ehrlichs, Melvin A.

    1990-01-01

    In a preclinical course in pediatric dentistry, 76 students were taught child behavior management through role playing of 7-10 common management situations. Pre- and postcourse measures of student confidence found that, although older students were more confident, all gained significantly from the training. Other student characteristics were also…

  3. Computer Use, Confidence, Attitudes, and Knowledge: A Causal Analysis.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Levine, Tamar; Donitsa-Schmidt, Smadar

    1998-01-01

    Introduces a causal model which links measures of computer experience, computer-related attitudes, computer-related confidence, and perceived computer-based knowledge. The causal model suggests that computer use has a positive effect on perceived computer self-confidence, as well as on computer-related attitudes. Questionnaires were administered…

  4. Sample Size for the "Z" Test and Its Confidence Interval

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven

    2012-01-01

    The statistical power of a significance test is closely related to the length of the confidence interval (i.e. estimate precision). In the case of a "Z" test, the length of the confidence interval can be expressed as a function of the statistical power. (Contains 1 figure and 1 table.)

  5. Understanding public confidence in government to prevent terrorist attacks.

    SciTech Connect

    Baldwin, T. E.; Ramaprasad, A,; Samsa, M. E.; Decision and Information Sciences; Univ. of Illinois at Chicago

    2008-04-02

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode its confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the principal metrics used to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, terrorist event types, and as a function of time is critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data was collected from three groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery explosion attack, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions, resulting in identity theft. Our findings are: (a) although the aggregate confidence level is low, there are optimists and pessimists; (b) the subjects are discriminating in interpreting the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) confidence recovery after a terrorist event has an incubation period; and (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence of the optimists and the pessimists are different. These findings can affect the strategy and policies to manage public confidence after a terrorist event.

  6. An Application of the Poisson Race Model to Confidence Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Merkle, Edgar C.; Van Zandt, Trisha

    2006-01-01

    In tasks as diverse as stock market predictions and jury deliberations, a person's feelings of confidence in the appropriateness of different choices often impact that person's final choice. The current study examines the mathematical modeling of confidence calibration in a simple dual-choice task. Experiments are motivated by an accumulator…

  7. Reporting Confidence Intervals and Effect Sizes: Collecting the Evidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Zientek, Linda Reichwein; Ozel, Z. Ebrar Yetkiner; Ozel, Serkan; Allen, Jeff

    2012-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) and effect sizes are essential to encourage meta-analytic thinking and to accumulate research findings. CIs provide a range of plausible values for population parameters with a degree of confidence that the parameter is in that particular interval. CIs also give information about how precise the estimates are. Comparison…

  8. Supplementary Eye Field Encodes Confidence in Decisions Under Risk.

    PubMed

    So, NaYoung; Stuphorn, Veit

    2016-02-01

    Choices are made with varying degrees of confidence, a cognitive signal representing the subjective belief in the optimality of the choice. Confidence has been mostly studied in the context of perceptual judgments, in which choice accuracy can be measured using objective criteria. Here, we study confidence in subjective value-based decisions. We recorded in the supplementary eye field (SEF) of monkeys performing a gambling task, where they had to use subjective criteria for placing bets. We found neural signals in the SEF that explicitly represent choice confidence independent from reward expectation. This confidence signal appeared after the choice and diminished before the choice outcome. Most of this neuronal activity was negatively correlated with confidence, and was strongest in trials on which the monkey spontaneously withdrew his choice. Such confidence-related activity indicates that the SEF not only guides saccade selection, but also evaluates the likelihood that the choice was optimal. This internal evaluation influences decisions concerning the willingness to bear later costs that follow from the choice or to avoid them. More generally, our findings indicate that choice confidence is an integral component of all forms of decision-making, whether they are based on perceptual evidence or on value estimations.

  9. Predictions Shape Confidence in Right Inferior Frontal Gyrus.

    PubMed

    Sherman, Maxine T; Seth, Anil K; Kanai, Ryota

    2016-10-05

    It is clear that prior expectations shape perceptual decision-making, yet their contribution to the construction of subjective decision confidence remains largely unexplored. We recorded fMRI data while participants made perceptual decisions and confidence judgments, manipulating perceptual prior expectations while controlling for potential confounds of attention. Results show that subjective confidence increases as expectations increasingly support the decision, and that this relationship is associated with BOLD activity in right inferior frontal gyrus (rIFG). Specifically, rIFG is sensitive to the discrepancy between expectation and decision (mismatch), and higher mismatch responses are associated with lower decision confidence. Connectivity analyses revealed expectancy information to be represented in bilateral orbitofrontal cortex and sensory signals to be represented in intracalcarine sulcus. Together, our results indicate that predictive information is integrated into subjective confidence in rIFG, and reveal an occipital-frontal network that constructs confidence from top-down and bottom-up signals. This interpretation was further supported by exploratory findings that the white matter density of right orbitofrontal cortex negatively predicted its respective contribution to the construction of confidence. Our findings advance our understanding of the neural basis of subjective perceptual processes by revealing an occipitofrontal functional network that integrates prior beliefs into the construction of confidence.

  10. Confidence in Forced-Choice Recognition: What Underlies the Ratings?

    PubMed

    Zawadzka, Katarzyna; Higham, Philip A; Hanczakowski, Maciej

    2016-09-29

    Two-alternative forced-choice recognition tests are commonly used to assess recognition accuracy that is uncontaminated by changes in bias. In such tests, participants are asked to endorse the studied item out of 2 presented alternatives. Participants may be further asked to provide confidence judgments for their recognition decisions. It is often assumed that both recognition decisions and confidence judgments in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition tests depend on participants' assessments of a difference in strength of memory evidence supporting the 2 alternatives-the relative account. In the present study we focus on the basis of confidence judgments and we assess the relative account of confidence against the absolute account of confidence, by which in assigning confidence participants consider only strength of memory evidence supporting the chosen alternative. The results of the study show that confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition decisions is higher when memory evidence is stronger for the chosen alternative and also when memory evidence is stronger for the unchosen alternative. These patterns of results are consistent with the absolute account of confidence in 2-alternative forced-choice recognition but they are inconsistent with the relative account. (PsycINFO Database Record

  11. The Self-Consistency Model of Subjective Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2012-01-01

    How do people monitor the correctness of their answers? A self-consistency model is proposed for the process underlying confidence judgments and their accuracy. In answering a 2-alternative question, participants are assumed to retrieve a sample of representations of the question and base their confidence on the consistency with which the chosen…

  12. Modeling Confidence and Response Time in Recognition Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ratcliff, Roger; Starns, Jeffrey J.

    2009-01-01

    A new model for confidence judgments in recognition memory is presented. In the model, the match between a single test item and memory produces a distribution of evidence, with better matches corresponding to distributions with higher means. On this match dimension, confidence criteria are placed, and the areas between the criteria under the…

  13. Multivoxel neurofeedback selectively modulates confidence without changing perceptual performance

    PubMed Central

    Cortese, Aurelio; Amano, Kaoru; Koizumi, Ai; Kawato, Mitsuo; Lau, Hakwan

    2016-01-01

    A central controversy in metacognition studies concerns whether subjective confidence directly reflects the reliability of perceptual or cognitive processes, as suggested by normative models based on the assumption that neural computations are generally optimal. This view enjoys popularity in the computational and animal literatures, but it has also been suggested that confidence may depend on a late-stage estimation dissociable from perceptual processes. Yet, at least in humans, experimental tools have lacked the power to resolve these issues convincingly. Here, we overcome this difficulty by using the recently developed method of decoded neurofeedback (DecNef) to systematically manipulate multivoxel correlates of confidence in a frontoparietal network. Here we report that bi-directional changes in confidence do not affect perceptual accuracy. Further psychophysical analyses rule out accounts based on simple shifts in reporting strategy. Our results provide clear neuroscientific evidence for the systematic dissociation between confidence and perceptual performance, and thereby challenge current theoretical thinking. PMID:27976739

  14. Contrasting Diversity Values: Statistical Inferences Based on Overlapping Confidence Intervals

    PubMed Central

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E.

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance). PMID:23437239

  15. Contrasting diversity values: statistical inferences based on overlapping confidence intervals.

    PubMed

    MacGregor-Fors, Ian; Payton, Mark E

    2013-01-01

    Ecologists often contrast diversity (species richness and abundances) using tests for comparing means or indices. However, many popular software applications do not support performing standard inferential statistics for estimates of species richness and/or density. In this study we simulated the behavior of asymmetric log-normal confidence intervals and determined an interval level that mimics statistical tests with P(α) = 0.05 when confidence intervals from two distributions do not overlap. Our results show that 84% confidence intervals robustly mimic 0.05 statistical tests for asymmetric confidence intervals, as has been demonstrated for symmetric ones in the past. Finally, we provide detailed user-guides for calculating 84% confidence intervals in two of the most robust and highly-used freeware related to diversity measurements for wildlife (i.e., EstimateS, Distance).

  16. Mortality rate and confidence interval estimation in humanitarian emergencies.

    PubMed

    Sullivan, Kevin; Hossain, S M Moazzem; Woodruff, Bradley A

    2010-01-01

    Surveys are conducted frequently in humanitarian emergencies to assess the health status of the population. Most often, they employ complex sample designs, such as cluster sampling. Mortality is an indicator commonly estimated in such surveys. Confidence limits provide information on the precision of the estimate and it is important to ensure that confidence limits for a mortality rate account for the survey design and utilise an acceptable methodology. This paper describes the calculation of confidence limits for mortality rates from surveys using complex sampling designs and a variety of software programmes and methods. It contains an example that makes use of the SAS, SPSS, and Epi Info software programmes. Of the three confidence interval methods examined--the ratio command approach, the modified rate approach, and the modified proportion approach--the paper recommends the ratio command approach to estimate mortality rates with confidence limits.

  17. Corrected profile likelihood confidence interval for binomial paired incomplete data.

    PubMed

    Pradhan, Vivek; Menon, Sandeep; Das, Ujjwal

    2013-01-01

    Clinical trials often use paired binomial data as their clinical endpoint. The confidence interval is frequently used to estimate the treatment performance. Tang et al. (2009) have proposed exact and approximate unconditional methods for constructing a confidence interval in the presence of incomplete paired binary data. The approach proposed by Tang et al. can be overly conservative with large expected confidence interval width (ECIW) in some situations. We propose a profile likelihood-based method with a Jeffreys' prior correction to construct the confidence interval. This approach generates confidence interval with a much better coverage probability and shorter ECIWs. The performances of the method along with the corrections are demonstrated through extensive simulation. Finally, three real world data sets are analyzed by all the methods. Statistical Analysis System (SAS) codes to execute the profile likelihood-based methods are also presented.

  18. A minimal ingroup advantage in emotion identification confidence.

    PubMed

    Young, Steven G; Wilson, John Paul

    2016-12-28

    Emotion expressions convey valuable information about others' internal states and likely behaviours. Accurately identifying expressions is critical for social interactions, but so is perceiver confidence when decoding expressions. Even if a perceiver correctly labels an expression, uncertainty may impair appropriate behavioural responses and create uncomfortable interactions. Past research has found that perceivers report greater confidence when identifying emotions displayed by cultural ingroup members, an effect attributed to greater perceptual skill and familiarity with own-culture than other-culture faces. However, the current research presents novel evidence for an ingroup advantage in emotion decoding confidence across arbitrary group boundaries that hold culture constant. In two experiments using different stimulus sets participants not only labeled minimal ingroup expressions more accurately, but did so with greater confidence. These results offer novel evidence that ingroup advantages in emotion decoding confidence stem partly from social-cognitive processes.

  19. What Are Confidence Judgments Made of? Students' Explanations for Their Confidence Ratings and What that Means for Calibration

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Dinsmore, Daniel L.; Parkinson, Meghan M.

    2013-01-01

    Although calibration has been widely studied, questions remain about how best to capture confidence ratings, how to calculate continuous variable calibration indices, and on what exactly students base their reported confidence ratings. Undergraduates in a research methods class completed a prior knowledge assessment, two sets of readings and…

  20. Sex differences in confidence influence patterns of conformity.

    PubMed

    Cross, Catharine P; Brown, Gillian R; Morgan, Thomas J H; Laland, Kevin N

    2016-11-11

    Lack of confidence in one's own ability can increase the likelihood of relying on social information. Sex differences in confidence have been extensively investigated in cognitive tasks, but implications for conformity have not been directly tested. Here, we tested the hypothesis that, in a task that shows sex differences in confidence, an indirect effect of sex on social information use will also be evident. Participants (N = 168) were administered a mental rotation (MR) task or a letter transformation (LT) task. After providing an answer, participants reported their confidence before seeing the responses of demonstrators and being allowed to change their initial answer. In the MR, but not the LT, task, women showed lower levels of confidence than men, and confidence mediated an indirect effect of sex on the likelihood of switching answers. These results provide novel, experimental evidence that confidence is a general explanatory mechanism underpinning susceptibility to social influences. Our results have implications for the interpretation of the wider literature on sex differences in conformity.

  1. The construction of confidence in a perceptual decision

    PubMed Central

    Zylberberg, Ariel; Barttfeld, Pablo; Sigman, Mariano

    2012-01-01

    Decision-making involves the selection of one out of many possible courses of action. A decision may bear on other decisions, as when humans seek a second medical opinion before undergoing a risky surgical intervention. These “meta-decisions” are mediated by confidence judgments—the degree to which decision-makers consider that a choice is likely to be correct. We studied how subjective confidence is constructed from noisy sensory evidence. The psychophysical kernels used to convert sensory information into choice and confidence decisions were precisely reconstructed measuring the impact of small fluctuations in sensory input. This is shown in two independent experiments in which human participants made a decision about the direction of motion of a set of randomly moving dots, or compared the brightness of a group of fluctuating bars, followed by a confidence report. The results of both experiments converged to show that: (1) confidence was influenced by evidence during a short window of time at the initial moments of the decision, and (2) confidence was influenced by evidence for the selected choice but was virtually blind to evidence for the non-selected choice. Our findings challenge classical models of subjective confidence—which posit that the difference of evidence in favor of each choice is the seed of the confidence signal. PMID:23049504

  2. Confidence Intervals for Error Rates Observed in Coded Communications Systems

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hamkins, J.

    2015-05-01

    We present methods to compute confidence intervals for the codeword error rate (CWER) and bit error rate (BER) of a coded communications link. We review several methods to compute exact and approximate confidence intervals for the CWER, and specifically consider the situation in which the true CWER is so low that only a handful, if any, codeword errors are able to be simulated. In doing so, we answer the question of how long an error-free simulation must be run in order to certify that a given CWER requirement is met with a given level of confidence, and discuss the bias introduced by aborting a simulation after observing the first codeword error. Next, we turn to the lesser studied problem of determining confidence intervals for the BER of coded systems. Since bit errors in systems that use coding or higher-order modulation do not occur independently, blind application of a method that assumes independence leads to inappropriately narrow confidence intervals. We present a new method to compute the confidence interval properly, using the first and second sample moments of the number of bit errors per codeword. This is the first method we know of to compute a confidence interval for the BER of a coded or higher-order modulation system.

  3. Public eyewitness confidence ratings can differ from those held privately.

    PubMed

    Shaw, J S; Zerr, T K; Woythaler, K A

    2001-04-01

    Despite much research on eyewitness confidence, we know very little about whether confidence ratings given in public might differ from those held privately. This study tested a prediction derived from self-presentation theory that eyewitnesses will give lower confidence ratings in public when there is a possibility of their account being contradicted by other witnesses as compared to when they report their confidence in private. In groups of 3 or 4 people, 96 participants watched a videotape of a simulated robbery and then answered 16 forced-choice questions about details from the videotape. In half of the experimental sessions, the participants shared their answers and confidence ratings aloud with the other participants (public condition), and in the other half, the answers and ratings were not shared (private). As predicted, confidence ratings were significantly lower in the public condition than in the private condition, but the privacy manipulation had no effect on response accuracy. These results are consistent with a self-presentation explanation, and they highlight the need to examine public confidence ratings more thoroughly.

  4. Disconnections Between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-09-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students’ general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important decision-making skills. Learning bioethics through scientific argumentation gives students opportunities to express their ideas, formulate educated opinions and value others’ viewpoints. Research has shown that science teachers’ expectations of student success and knowledge directly influence student achievement and confidence levels. Our study analyzes pre-course and post-course surveys completed by students enrolled in a university level bioethics course ( n = 111) and by faculty in the College of Biology and Agriculture faculty ( n = 34) based on their perceptions of student confidence. Additionally, student data were collected from classroom observations and interviews. Data analysis showed a disconnect between faculty and students perceptions of confidence for both knowledge and the use of science argumentation. Student reports of their confidence levels regarding various bioethical issues were higher than faculty reports. A further disconnect showed up between students’ preferred learning styles and the general faculty’s common teaching methods; students learned more by practicing scientific argumentation than listening to traditional lectures. Students who completed a bioethics course that included practice in scientific argumentation, significantly increased their confidence levels. This study suggests that professors’ expectations and teaching styles influence student confidence levels in both knowledge and scientific argumentation.

  5. Shared neural markers of decision confidence and error detection.

    PubMed

    Boldt, Annika; Yeung, Nick

    2015-02-25

    Empirical evidence indicates that people can provide accurate evaluations of their own thoughts and actions by means of both error detection and confidence judgments. This study investigates the foundations of these metacognitive abilities, specifically focusing on the relationship between confidence and error judgments in human perceptual decision making. Electroencephalography studies have identified the error positivity (Pe)--an event-related component observed following incorrect choices--as a robust neural index of participants' awareness of their errors in simple decision tasks. Here we assessed whether the Pe also varies in a graded way with participants' subjective ratings of decision confidence, as expressed on a 6-point scale after each trial of a dot count perceptual decision task. We observed clear, graded modulation of the Pe by confidence, with monotonic reduction in Pe amplitude associated with increasing confidence in the preceding choice. This effect was independent of objective accuracy. Multivariate decoding analyses indicated that neural markers of error detection were predictive of varying levels of confidence in correct decisions, including subtle shifts in high-confidence trials. These results suggest that shared mechanisms underlie two forms of metacognitive evaluation that are often treated separately, with consequent implications for current theories of their neurocognitive basis.

  6. Assured Human-Autonomy Interaction through Machine Self-Confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Aitken, Matthew

    Autonomous systems employ many layers of approximations in order to operate in increasingly uncertain and unstructured environments. The complexity of these systems makes it hard for a user to understand the systems capabilities, especially if the user is not an expert. However, if autonomous systems are to be used efficiently, their users must trust them appropriately. This purpose of this work is to implement and assess an 'assurance' that an autonomous system can provide to the user to elicit appropriate trust. Specifically, the autonomous system's perception of its own capabilities is reported to the user as the self-confidence assurance. The self-confidence assurance should allow the user to more quickly and accurately assess the autonomous system's capabilities, generating appropriate trust in the autonomous system. First, this research defines self-confidence and discusses what the self-confidence assurance is attempting to communicate to the user. Then it provides a framework for computing the autonomous system's self-confidence as a function of self-confidence factors which correspond to individual elements in the autonomous system's process. In order to explore this idea, self-confidence is implemented on an autonomous system that uses a mixed observability Markov decision process model to solve a pursuit-evasion problem on a road network. The implementation of a factor assessing the goodness of the autonomy's expected performance is focused on in particular. This work highlights some of the issues and considerations in the design of appropriate metrics for the self-confidence factors, and provides the basis for future research for computing self-confidence in autonomous systems.

  7. A Poisson process approximation for generalized K-5 confidence regions

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Arsham, H.; Miller, D. R.

    1982-01-01

    One-sided confidence regions for continuous cumulative distribution functions are constructed using empirical cumulative distribution functions and the generalized Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance. The band width of such regions becomes narrower in the right or left tail of the distribution. To avoid tedious computation of confidence levels and critical values, an approximation based on the Poisson process is introduced. This aproximation provides a conservative confidence region; moreover, the approximation error decreases monotonically to 0 as sample size increases. Critical values necessary for implementation are given. Applications are made to the areas of risk analysis, investment modeling, reliability assessment, and analysis of fault tolerant systems.

  8. Small Sample Theory for Steady State Confidence Intervals

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-06-01

    confidence interval for the mean of a stationary sequence. As indicated in the literature, nonparametric confidence intervals in practice often have undesirable small-sample asymmetry and coverage characteristics. These phenomena are partially due to the fact that the third and fourth cumulants of the point estimator for the stationary mean, unlike those of the standard normal random variable, are not zero. We will apply Edgeworth and Cornish-Fisher expansions to obtain asymptotic expansions for the errors associated with confidence intervals. The analysis isolates various

  9. Identifying Balance in a Balanced Scorecard System

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Aravamudhan, Suhanya; Kamalanabhan, T. J.

    2007-01-01

    In recent years, strategic management concepts seem to be gaining greater attention from the academicians and the practitioner's alike. Balanced Scorecard (BSC) concept is one such management concepts that has spread in worldwide business and consulting communities. The BSC translates mission and vision statements into a comprehensive set of…

  10. Confidence and the stock market: an agent-based approach.

    PubMed

    Bertella, Mario A; Pires, Felipe R; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations--indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior.

  11. Confidence and the Stock Market: An Agent-Based Approach

    PubMed Central

    Bertella, Mario A.; Pires, Felipe R.; Feng, Ling; Stanley, Harry Eugene

    2014-01-01

    Using a behavioral finance approach we study the impact of behavioral bias. We construct an artificial market consisting of fundamentalists and chartists to model the decision-making process of various agents. The agents differ in their strategies for evaluating stock prices, and exhibit differing memory lengths and confidence levels. When we increase the heterogeneity of the strategies used by the agents, in particular the memory lengths, we observe excess volatility and kurtosis, in agreement with real market fluctuations—indicating that agents in real-world financial markets exhibit widely differing memory lengths. We incorporate the behavioral traits of adaptive confidence and observe a positive correlation between average confidence and return rate, indicating that market sentiment is an important driver in price fluctuations. The introduction of market confidence increases price volatility, reflecting the negative effect of irrationality in market behavior. PMID:24421888

  12. Confidence Interval for Parameter n in a Binomial Distribution.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-01-01

    procedure of estimating n in the form of a confidence interval . The last section consists of some concluding remark. A simulation procedure, an interactive computer program, and selected tables are included in the appendixes.

  13. Measurement of tag confidence in user generated contents retrieval

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lee, Sihyoung; Min, Hyun-Seok; Lee, Young Bok; Ro, Yong Man

    2009-01-01

    As online image sharing services are becoming popular, the importance of correctly annotated tags is being emphasized for precise search and retrieval. Tags created by user along with user-generated contents (UGC) are often ambiguous due to the fact that some tags are highly subjective and visually unrelated to the image. They cause unwanted results to users when image search engines rely on tags. In this paper, we propose a method of measuring tag confidence so that one can differentiate confidence tags from noisy tags. The proposed tag confidence is measured from visual semantics of the image. To verify the usefulness of the proposed method, experiments were performed with UGC database from social network sites. Experimental results showed that the image retrieval performance with confidence tags was increased.

  14. Market entry decisions: effects of absolute and relative confidence.

    PubMed

    Bolger, Fergus; Pulford, Briony D; Colman, Andrew M

    2008-01-01

    In a market entry game, the number of entrants usually approaches game-theoretic equilibrium quickly, but in real-world markets business start-ups typically exceed market capacity, resulting in chronically high failure rates and suboptimal industry profits. Excessive entry has been attributed to overconfidence arising when expected payoffs depend partly on skill. In an experimental test of this hypothesis, 96 participants played 24 rounds of a market entry game, with expected payoffs dependent partly on skill on half the rounds, after their confidence was manipulated and measured. The results provide direct support for the hypothesis that high levels of confidence are largely responsible for excessive entry, and they suggest that absolute confidence, independent of interpersonal comparison, rather than confidence about one's abilities relative to others, drives excessive entry decisions when skill is involved.

  15. Counseling Relationship As A Function of Counselor's Self-Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tien-Teh Lin

    1973-01-01

    Results of this study indicated that the degree of perceived counselor's empathy, warmth, genuineness, intimacy, concreteness, expertness, regard, and congruence was linearly related to the level of counselor's self-confidence. (Author)

  16. The physician's attire and its influence on patient confidence.

    PubMed

    Budny, Adam M; Rogers, Lee C; Mandracchia, Vincent J; Lascher, Steven

    2006-01-01

    Although physician appearance has been a topic of discussion in the medical literature for many years, no objective research has been performed on this topic in the field of podiatric medicine. Our primary objective was to examine patient confidence in physicians as it relates to professional clinic attire versus casual or scrub outfits. We also assessed the influence of other variables, such as white coat, name tag, age, and sex, on patient confidence. We surveyed 155 podiatric medical patients from a private practice and a hospital-based clinic. The results indicate that 68% of patients surveyed felt that professional attire inspired the most confidence. Ninety-six percent of all patients either preferred white coats or were indifferent to their presence. We conclude that professionally dressed podiatric physicians may inspire more confidence in a significant percentage of their patients.

  17. Changes in Students' Self-Confidence in College.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Erwin, T. Dary; Kelly, Karlease

    1985-01-01

    Students' changes in confidence, as measured by the Erwin Identity Scale, were studied from the freshman to the senior year of college in conjunction with the effects of several environmental perceptions. (Author)

  18. Determinants of observed confidant support for divorced mothers.

    PubMed

    DeGarmo, D S; Forgatch, M S

    1997-02-01

    Marital separation can be a time of extreme stress and can significantly disrupt support networks and support processes when they are needed most. The purpose of this investigation was to test mechanisms of support erosion in a multimethod study of 138 divorced mothers and their confidants. Previous work was extended by using observational measures of confidant support in a process model including (a) maternal characteristics over time, (b) support person characteristics, and (c) relationship characteristics (intimacy and confidant relationship type). A hypothesized mechanism of erosion was supported in which ongoing maternal distress was positively associated with levels of confidant negativity, which in turn was related to lower levels of observed support. Having a partner was related to more intimacy than was having family and friends. Contrary to expectation, however, having a partner was related to lower levels of support, and intimacy was not related to observed support.

  19. Change detection inflates confidence on a subsequent recognition task.

    PubMed

    Fitzgerald, Ryan J; Oriet, Chris; Price, Heather L

    2011-11-01

    A face viewed under good encoding conditions is more likely to be remembered than a face viewed under poor encoding conditions. In four experiments we investigated how encoding conditions affected confidence in recognising faces from line-ups. Participants performed a change detection task followed by a recognition task and then rated how confident they were in their recognition accuracy. In the first two experiments the same faces were repeated across trials. In the final two experiments novel faces were used on each trial. Target-present and target-absent line-ups were utilised. In each experiment participants had greater recognition confidence after change detection than after change blindness. The finding that change detection inflates confidence, even for inaccurate recognitions, indicates recognition certainty can be a product of perceived encoding conditions rather than authentic memory strength.

  20. Judicial Checks and Balances

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    La Porta, Rafael; Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio; Pop-Eleches, Cristian; Shleifer, Andrei

    2004-01-01

    In the Anglo-American constitutional tradition, judicial checks and balances are often seen as crucial guarantees of freedom. Hayek distinguishes two ways in which the judiciary provides such checks and balances: judicial independence and constitutional review. We create a new database of constitutional rules in 71 countries that reflect these…

  1. Leadership: A Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hines, Thomas E.

    2011-01-01

    Maintaining balance in leadership can be difficult because balance is affected by the personality, strengths, and attitudes of the leader as well as the complicated environment within and outside the community college itself. This article explores what being a leader at the community college means, what the threats are to effective leadership, and…

  2. A Balance of Power?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Mosey, Edward

    1991-01-01

    The booming economy of the Pacific Northwest region promotes the dilemma of balancing the need for increased electrical power with the desire to maintain that region's unspoiled natural environment. Pertinent factors discussed within the balance equation are population trends, economic considerations, industrial power requirements, and…

  3. Chemical Equation Balancing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Blakley, G. R.

    1982-01-01

    Reviews mathematical techniques for solving systems of homogeneous linear equations and demonstrates that the algebraic method of balancing chemical equations is a matter of solving a system of homogeneous linear equations. FORTRAN programs using this matrix method to chemical equation balancing are available from the author. (JN)

  4. A smartphone inertial balance

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Barrera-Garrido, Azael

    2017-04-01

    In order to measure the mass of an object in the absence of gravity, one useful tool for many decades has been the inertial balance. One of the simplest forms of inertial balance is made by two mass holders or pans joined together with two stiff metal plates, which act as springs.

  5. Eliminative Induction: A Basis for Arguing System Confidence

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-05-01

    Eliminative Induction: A Basis for Arguing System Confidence John B. Goodenough , Charles B. Weinstock, Ari Z. Klein Software Engineering Institute...unlimited distribution. DM-0000209. REFERENCES [1] J. Goodenough , C. Weinstock and A. Klein, “Toward a Theory of Assurance Case Confidence,” Pittsburgh...4] C. B. Weinstock and J. B. Goodenough , “Towards an Assurance Case Practice for Medical Devices,” Pittsburgh, PA: Software Engineering

  6. Improving Quality Using Architecture Fault Analysis with Confidence Arguments

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-03-01

    2013]. We use the confidence map in developing an argument and in evaluating an argument’s strengths and weaknesses . Section 2 discusses the...and weaknesses . A confidence map consists of a connected set of inferences having the form if P then Q unless R, S, T, … The inference if P then...conclusion about Tweety’s ability to fly. We also consider weaknesses in the inference rule, noting that if Tweety is a juvenile the rule is

  7. Confidence limits for small numbers of events in astrophysical data

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Gehrels, N.

    1986-01-01

    The calculation of limits for small numbers of astronomical counts is based on standard equations derived from Poisson and binomial statistics; although the equations are straightforward, their direct use is cumbersome and involves both table-interpolations and several mathematical operations. Convenient tables and approximate formulae are here presented for confidence limits which are based on such Poisson and binomial statistics. The limits in the tables are given for all confidence levels commonly used in astrophysics.

  8. The Sense of Confidence during Probabilistic Learning: A Normative Account.

    PubMed

    Meyniel, Florent; Schlunegger, Daniel; Dehaene, Stanislas

    2015-06-01

    Learning in a stochastic environment consists of estimating a model from a limited amount of noisy data, and is therefore inherently uncertain. However, many classical models reduce the learning process to the updating of parameter estimates and neglect the fact that learning is also frequently accompanied by a variable "feeling of knowing" or confidence. The characteristics and the origin of these subjective confidence estimates thus remain largely unknown. Here we investigate whether, during learning, humans not only infer a model of their environment, but also derive an accurate sense of confidence from their inferences. In our experiment, humans estimated the transition probabilities between two visual or auditory stimuli in a changing environment, and reported their mean estimate and their confidence in this report. To formalize the link between both kinds of estimate and assess their accuracy in comparison to a normative reference, we derive the optimal inference strategy for our task. Our results indicate that subjects accurately track the likelihood that their inferences are correct. Learning and estimating confidence in what has been learned appear to be two intimately related abilities, suggesting that they arise from a single inference process. We show that human performance matches several properties of the optimal probabilistic inference. In particular, subjective confidence is impacted by environmental uncertainty, both at the first level (uncertainty in stimulus occurrence given the inferred stochastic characteristics) and at the second level (uncertainty due to unexpected changes in these stochastic characteristics). Confidence also increases appropriately with the number of observations within stable periods. Our results support the idea that humans possess a quantitative sense of confidence in their inferences about abstract non-sensory parameters of the environment. This ability cannot be reduced to simple heuristics, it seems instead a core

  9. Initial eyewitness confidence reliably predicts eyewitness identification accuracy.

    PubMed

    Wixted, John T; Mickes, Laura; Clark, Steven E; Gronlund, Scott D; Roediger, Henry L

    2015-09-01

    Eyewitness memory is widely believed to be unreliable because (a) high-confidence eyewitness misidentifications played a role in over 70% of the now more than 300 DNA exonerations of wrongfully convicted men and women, (b) forensically relevant laboratory studies have often reported a weak relationship between eyewitness confidence and accuracy, and (c) memory is sufficiently malleable that, not infrequently, people (including eyewitnesses) can be led to remember events differently from the way the events actually happened. In light of such evidence, many researchers agree that confidence statements made by eyewitnesses in a court of law (in particular, the high confidence they often express at trial) should be discounted, if not disregarded altogether. But what about confidence statements made by eyewitnesses at the time of the initial identification (e.g., from a lineup), before there is much opportunity for memory contamination to occur? A considerable body of recent empirical work suggests that confidence may be a highly reliable indicator of accuracy at that time, which fits with longstanding theoretical models of recognition memory. Counterintuitively, an appreciation of this fact could do more to protect innocent defendants from being wrongfully convicted than any other eyewitness identification reform that has been proposed to date.

  10. Decision-making, errors, and confidence in the brain.

    PubMed

    Rolls, Edmund T; Grabenhorst, Fabian; Deco, Gustavo

    2010-11-01

    To provide a fundamental basis for understanding decision-making and decision confidence, we analyze a neuronal spiking attractor-based model of decision-making. The model predicts probabilistic decision-making with larger neuronal responses and larger functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses on correct than on error trials because the spiking noise-influenced decision attractor state of the network is consistent with the external evidence. Moreover, the model predicts that the neuronal activity and the BOLD response will become larger on correct trials as the discriminability ΔI increases and confidence increases and will become smaller as confidence decreases on error trials as ΔI increases. Confidence is thus an emergent property of the model. In an fMRI study of an olfactory decision-making task, we confirm these predictions for cortical areas including medial prefrontal cortex and the cingulate cortex implicated in choice decision-making, showing a linear increase in the BOLD signal with ΔI on correct trials, and a linear decrease on error trials. These effects were not found in a control area, the orbitofrontal cortex, where reward value useful for the choice is represented on a continuous scale but that is not implicated in the choice itself. This provides a unifying approach to decision-making and decision confidence and to how spiking-related noise affects choice, confidence, synaptic and neuronal activity, and fMRI signals.

  11. Prediction of the confidence interval of quantitative trait Loci location.

    PubMed

    Visscher, Peter M; Goddard, Mike E

    2004-07-01

    In 1997, Darvasi and Soller presented empirical predictions of the confidence interval of quantitative trait loci (QTL) location for dense marker maps in experimental crosses. They showed from simulation results for backcross and F2 populations from inbred lines that the 95% confidence interval was a simple function of sample size and the effect of the QTL. In this study, we derive by theory simple equations that can be used to predict any confidence interval and show that for the 95% confidence interval, they are in good agreement with the empirical results given by Darvasi and Soller. A general form of the confidence interval is given that also applies to other population structures (e.g., collections of sib pairs). Furthermore, the expected shape of the likelihood-ratio-test around the true QTL location is derived, which is shown to be extremely leptokurtic. It is shown that this shape explains why confidence intervals from the Log of Odds (LOD) drop-off method and bootstrap results frequently differ for real data sets.

  12. Overdistribution illusions: Categorical judgments produce them, confidence ratings reduce them.

    PubMed

    Brainerd, C J; Nakamura, K; Reyna, V F; Holliday, R E

    2017-01-01

    Overdistribution is a form of memory distortion in which an event is remembered as belonging to too many episodic states, states that are logically or empirically incompatible with each other. We investigated a response formatting method of suppressing 2 basic types of overdistribution, disjunction and conjunction illusions, which parallel some classic illusions in the judgment and decision making literature. In this method, subjects respond to memory probes by rating their confidence that test cues belong to specific episodic states (e.g., presented on List 1, presented on List 2), rather than by making the usual categorical judgments about those states. The central prediction, which was derived from the task calibration principle of fuzzy-trace theory, was that confidence ratings should reduce overdistribution by diminishing subjects' reliance on noncompensatory gist memories. The data of 3 experiments agreed with that prediction. In Experiment 1, there were reliable disjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. In Experiment 2, both response formats produced reliable disjunction illusions, but those for confidence ratings were much smaller than those for categorical judgments. In Experiment 3, there were reliable conjunction illusions with categorical judgments but not with confidence ratings. Apropos of recent controversies over confidence-accuracy correlations in memory, such correlations were positive for hits, negative for correct rejections, and the 2 types of correlations were of equal magnitude. (PsycINFO Database Record

  13. Confidence bounds for nonlinear dose-response relationships.

    PubMed

    Baayen, C; Hougaard, P

    2015-11-30

    An important aim of drug trials is to characterize the dose-response relationship of a new compound. Such a relationship can often be described by a parametric (nonlinear) function that is monotone in dose. If such a model is fitted, it is useful to know the uncertainty of the fitted curve. It is well known that Wald confidence intervals are based on linear approximations and are often unsatisfactory in nonlinear models. Apart from incorrect coverage rates, they can be unreasonable in the sense that the lower confidence limit of the difference to placebo can be negative, even when an overall test shows a significant positive effect. Bootstrap confidence intervals solve many of the problems of the Wald confidence intervals but are computationally intensive and prone to undercoverage for small sample sizes. In this work, we propose a profile likelihood approach to compute confidence intervals for the dose-response curve. These confidence bounds have better coverage than Wald intervals and are more precise and generally faster than bootstrap methods. Moreover, if monotonicity is assumed, the profile likelihood approach takes this automatically into account. The approach is illustrated using a public dataset and simulations based on the Emax and sigmoid Emax models.

  14. Recursive confidence band construction for an unknown distribution function.

    PubMed

    Kiatsupaibul, Seksan; Hayter, Anthony J

    2015-01-01

    Given a sample X1,...,Xn of independent observations from an unknown continuous distribution function F, the problem of constructing a confidence band for F is considered, which is a fundamental problem in statistical inference. This confidence band provides simultaneous inferences on all quantiles and also on all of the cumulative probabilities of the distribution, and so they are among the most important inference procedures that address the issue of multiplicity. A fully nonparametric approach is taken where no assumptions are made about the distribution function F. Historical approaches to this problem, such as Kolmogorov's famous () procedure, represent some of the earliest inference methodologies that address the issue of multiplicity. This is because a confidence band at a given confidence level 1-α allows inferences on all of the quantiles of the distribution, and also on all of the cumulative probabilities, at that specified confidence level. In this paper it is shown how recursive methodologies can be employed to construct both one-sided and two-sided confidence bands of various types. The first approach operates by putting bounds on the cumulative probabilities at the data points, and a recursive integration approach is described. The second approach operates by providing bounds on certain specified quantiles of the distribution, and its implementation using recursive summations of multinomial probabilities is described. These recursive methodologies are illustrated with examples, and R code is available for their implementation.

  15. Learning to make collective decisions: the impact of confidence escalation.

    PubMed

    Mahmoodi, Ali; Bang, Dan; Ahmadabadi, Majid Nili; Bahrami, Bahador

    2013-01-01

    Little is known about how people learn to take into account others' opinions in joint decisions. To address this question, we combined computational and empirical approaches. Human dyads made individual and joint visual perceptual decision and rated their confidence in those decisions (data previously published). We trained a reinforcement (temporal difference) learning agent to get the participants' confidence level and learn to arrive at a dyadic decision by finding the policy that either maximized the accuracy of the model decisions or maximally conformed to the empirical dyadic decisions. When confidences were shared visually without verbal interaction, RL agents successfully captured social learning. When participants exchanged confidences visually and interacted verbally, no collective benefit was achieved and the model failed to predict the dyadic behaviour. Behaviourally, dyad members' confidence increased progressively and verbal interaction accelerated this escalation. The success of the model in drawing collective benefit from dyad members was inversely related to confidence escalation rate. The findings show an automated learning agent can, in principle, combine individual opinions and achieve collective benefit but the same agent cannot discount the escalation suggesting that one cognitive component of collective decision making in human may involve discounting of overconfidence arising from interactions.

  16. Active balance system and vibration balanced machine

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Qiu, Songgang (Inventor); Augenblick, John E. (Inventor); Peterson, Allen A. (Inventor); White, Maurice A. (Inventor)

    2005-01-01

    An active balance system is provided for counterbalancing vibrations of an axially reciprocating machine. The balance system includes a support member, a flexure assembly, a counterbalance mass, and a linear motor or an actuator. The support member is configured for attachment to the machine. The flexure assembly includes at least one flat spring having connections along a central portion and an outer peripheral portion. One of the central portion and the outer peripheral portion is fixedly mounted to the support member. The counterbalance mass is fixedly carried by the flexure assembly along another of the central portion and the outer peripheral portion. The linear motor has one of a stator and a mover fixedly mounted to the support member and another of the stator and the mover fixedly mounted to the counterbalance mass. The linear motor is operative to axially reciprocate the counterbalance mass.

  17. Load Balancing Scientific Applications

    SciTech Connect

    Pearce, Olga Tkachyshyn

    2014-12-01

    The largest supercomputers have millions of independent processors, and concurrency levels are rapidly increasing. For ideal efficiency, developers of the simulations that run on these machines must ensure that computational work is evenly balanced among processors. Assigning work evenly is challenging because many large modern parallel codes simulate behavior of physical systems that evolve over time, and their workloads change over time. Furthermore, the cost of imbalanced load increases with scale because most large-scale scientific simulations today use a Single Program Multiple Data (SPMD) parallel programming model, and an increasing number of processors will wait for the slowest one at the synchronization points. To address load imbalance, many large-scale parallel applications use dynamic load balance algorithms to redistribute work evenly. The research objective of this dissertation is to develop methods to decide when and how to load balance the application, and to balance it effectively and affordably. We measure and evaluate the computational load of the application, and develop strategies to decide when and how to correct the imbalance. Depending on the simulation, a fast, local load balance algorithm may be suitable, or a more sophisticated and expensive algorithm may be required. We developed a model for comparison of load balance algorithms for a specific state of the simulation that enables the selection of a balancing algorithm that will minimize overall runtime.

  18. Consideration of Dynamical Balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Errico, Ronald M.

    2015-01-01

    The quasi-balance of extra-tropical tropospheric dynamics is a fundamental aspect of nature. If an atmospheric analysis does not reflect such balance sufficiently well, the subsequent forecast will exhibit unrealistic behavior associated with spurious fast-propagating gravity waves. Even if these eventually damp, they can create poor background fields for a subsequent analysis or interact with moist physics to create spurious precipitation. The nature of this problem will be described along with the reasons for atmospheric balance and techniques for mitigating imbalances. Attention will be focused on fundamental issues rather than on recipes for various techniques.

  19. Balance Evaluation Systems

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1996-01-01

    NeuroCom's Balance Master is a system to assess and then retrain patients with balance and mobility problems and is used in several medical centers. NeuroCom received assistance in research and funding from NASA, and incorporated technology from testing mechanisms for astronauts after shuttle flights. The EquiTest and Balance Master Systems are computerized posturography machines that measure patient responses to movement of a platform on which the subject is standing or sitting, then provide assessments of the patient's postural alignment and stability.

  20. Errors in potassium balance

    SciTech Connect

    Forbes, G.B.; Lantigua, R.; Amatruda, J.M.; Lockwood, D.H.

    1981-01-01

    Six overweight adult subjects given a low calorie diet containing adequate amounts of nitrogen but subnormal amounts of potassium (K) were observed on the Clinical Research Center for periods of 29 to 40 days. Metabolic balance of potassium was measured together with frequent assays of total body K by /sup 40/K counting. Metabolic K balance underestimated body K losses by 11 to 87% (average 43%): the intersubject variability is such as to preclude the use of a single correction value for unmeasured losses in K balance studies.

  1. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence.

    PubMed

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D

    2015-12-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience-approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain-to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This "emotor" control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on "confidence." Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior.

  2. Interindividual variability in auditory scene analysis revealed by confidence judgements.

    PubMed

    Pelofi, C; de Gardelle, V; Egré, P; Pressnitzer, D

    2017-02-19

    Because musicians are trained to discern sounds within complex acoustic scenes, such as an orchestra playing, it has been hypothesized that musicianship improves general auditory scene analysis abilities. Here, we compared musicians and non-musicians in a behavioural paradigm using ambiguous stimuli, combining performance, reaction times and confidence measures. We used 'Shepard tones', for which listeners may report either an upward or a downward pitch shift for the same ambiguous tone pair. Musicians and non-musicians performed similarly on the pitch-shift direction task. In particular, both groups were at chance for the ambiguous case. However, groups differed in their reaction times and judgements of confidence. Musicians responded to the ambiguous case with long reaction times and low confidence, whereas non-musicians responded with fast reaction times and maximal confidence. In a subsequent experiment, non-musicians displayed reduced confidence for the ambiguous case when pure-tone components of the Shepard complex were made easier to discern. The results suggest an effect of musical training on scene analysis: we speculate that musicians were more likely to discern components within complex auditory scenes, perhaps because of enhanced attentional resolution, and thus discovered the ambiguity. For untrained listeners, stimulus ambiguity was not available to perceptual awareness.This article is part of the themed issue 'Auditory and visual scene analysis'.

  3. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand.

    PubMed

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price.

  4. New graduate nurses' experiences about lack of professional confidence.

    PubMed

    Ortiz, Jennifer

    2016-07-01

    Professional confidence is an essential trait for new graduate nurses to possess in order to provide quality patient care in today's complex hospital setting. However, many new graduates are entering the workforce without it and this remains to be explored. This study describes how new graduate nurses accounted for their lack of professional confidence upon entry into professional practice and how it developed during their first year of practice in the hospital setting. Two face-to-face, individual interviews of 12 participants were utilized to capture the lived experiences of new graduate nurses to gain an understanding of this phenomenon. After manual content analysis seven themes emerged: communication is huge, making mistakes, disconnect between school and practice, independence, relationship building, positive feedback is important, and gaining experience. The findings indicate that the development of professional confidence is a dynamic process that occurs throughout the first year of practice. New graduate nurses must experience both positive and negative circumstances in order to move toward the attainment of professional confidence. Knowing this, nurse educators in academia as well as in the hospital setting may better support the development of professional confidence both before and during the first year of practice.

  5. Losing confidence in medicine in an era of medical expansion?

    PubMed

    Zheng, Hui

    2015-07-01

    Has the expansion of the medical field inspired more or less confidence in medicine among the American public? This study investigates how confidence in medicine has changed over the past three decades, whether this trend is uniform across social groups and which aspects of medicine are most affected. Data are from repeated cross-sectional U.S. General Social Surveys spanning the years 1973-2008, including the 2002 Doctors and Patients Module and the 1998 Pressing Issues in Health and Medical Care Module. Americans' confidence in medicine has declined continuously over the past three decades, and the extent of this decline did not vary by gender, age group, cohort, or income level. Analysis of differences across socio-demographic groups suggests that confidence in medicine is related to trust in doctors' ethics but different from obedience to doctors' authority. Therefore, the downward trend in confidence in medicine may suggest a decline in public trust in doctors' ethics, but not necessarily a decline in obedience to doctors' authority.

  6. Systematic Effects in Laser Scanning and Visualization by Confidence Regions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Koch, Karl-Rudolf; Brockmann, Jan Martin

    2016-12-01

    A new method for dealing with systematic effects in laser scanning and visualizing them by confidence regions is derived. The standard deviations of the systematic effects are obtained by repeatedly measuring three-dimensional coordinates by the laser scanner. In addition, autocovariance and cross-covariance functions are computed by the repeated measurements and give the correlations of the systematic effects. The normal distribution for the measurements and the multivariate uniform distribution for the systematic effects are applied to generate random variates for the measurements and random variates for the measurements plus systematic effects. Monte Carlo estimates of the expectations and the covariance matrix of the measurements with systematic effects are computed. The densities for the confidence ellipsoid for the measurements and the confidence region for the measurements with systematic effects are obtained by relative frequencies. They only depend on the size of the rectangular volume elements for which the densities are determined. The problem of sorting the densities is solved by sorting distances together with the densities. This allows a visualization of the confidence ellipsoid for the measurements and the confidence region for the measurements with systematic effects.

  7. Market Confidence Predicts Stock Price: Beyond Supply and Demand

    PubMed Central

    Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi; Zhang, Yuqing

    2016-01-01

    Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem in stock market analysis. Existing prediction methods either exploit autocorrelation of stock price and its correlation with the supply and demand of stock, or explore predictive indictors exogenous to stock market. In this paper, using transaction record of stocks with identifier of traders, we introduce an index to characterize market confidence, i.e., the ratio of the number of traders who is active in two successive trading days to the number of active traders in a certain trading day. Strong Granger causality is found between the index of market confidence and stock price. We further predict stock price by incorporating the index of market confidence into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 50 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate that the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of the market confidence index. This study sheds light on using cross-day trading behavior to characterize market confidence and to predict stock price. PMID:27391816

  8. Alternative Confidence Interval Methods Used in the Diagnostic Accuracy Studies.

    PubMed

    Erdoğan, Semra; Gülhan, Orekıcı Temel

    2016-01-01

    Background/Aim. It is necessary to decide whether the newly improved methods are better than the standard or reference test or not. To decide whether the new diagnostics test is better than the gold standard test/imperfect standard test, the differences of estimated sensitivity/specificity are calculated with the help of information obtained from samples. However, to generalize this value to the population, it should be given with the confidence intervals. The aim of this study is to evaluate the confidence interval methods developed for the differences between the two dependent sensitivity/specificity values on a clinical application. Materials and Methods. In this study, confidence interval methods like Asymptotic Intervals, Conditional Intervals, Unconditional Interval, Score Intervals, and Nonparametric Methods Based on Relative Effects Intervals are used. Besides, as clinical application, data used in diagnostics study by Dickel et al. (2010) has been taken as a sample. Results. The results belonging to the alternative confidence interval methods for Nickel Sulfate, Potassium Dichromate, and Lanolin Alcohol are given as a table. Conclusion. While preferring the confidence interval methods, the researchers have to consider whether the case to be compared is single ratio or dependent binary ratio differences, the correlation coefficient between the rates in two dependent ratios and the sample sizes.

  9. Characteristics of successful opinion leaders in a bounded confidence model

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chen, Shuwei; Glass, David H.; McCartney, Mark

    2016-05-01

    This paper analyses the impact of competing opinion leaders on attracting followers in a social group based on a bounded confidence model in terms of four characteristics: reputation, stubbornness, appeal and extremeness. In the model, reputation differs among leaders and normal agents based on the weights assigned to them, stubbornness of leaders is reflected by their confidence towards normal agents, appeal of the leaders is represented by the confidence of followers towards them, and extremeness is captured by the opinion values of leaders. Simulations show that increasing reputation, stubbornness or extremeness makes it more difficult for the group to achieve consensus, but increasing the appeal will make it easier. The results demonstrate that successful opinion leaders should generally be less stubborn, have greater appeal and be less extreme in order to attract more followers in a competing environment. Furthermore, the number of followers can be very sensitive to small changes in these characteristics. On the other hand, reputation has a more complicated impact: higher reputation helps the leader to attract more followers when the group bound of confidence is high, but can hinder the leader from attracting followers when the group bound of confidence is low.

  10. Emotor control: computations underlying bodily resource allocation, emotions, and confidence

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mensh, Brett D.

    2015-01-01

    Emotional processes are central to behavior, yet their deeply subjective nature has been a challenge for neuroscientific study as well as for psychiatric diagnosis. Here we explore the relationships between subjective feelings and their underlying brain circuits from a computational perspective. We apply recent insights from systems neuroscience—approaching subjective behavior as the result of mental computations instantiated in the brain—to the study of emotions. We develop the hypothesis that emotions are the product of neural computations whose motor role is to reallocate bodily resources mostly gated by smooth muscles. This “emotor” control system is analagous to the more familiar motor control computations that coordinate skeletal muscle movements. To illustrate this framework, we review recent research on “confidence.” Although familiar as a feeling, confidence is also an objective statistical quantity: an estimate of the probability that a hypothesis is correct. This model-based approach helped reveal the neural basis of decision confidence in mammals and provides a bridge to the subjective feeling of confidence in humans. These results have important implications for psychiatry, since disorders of confidence computations appear to contribute to a number of psychopathologies. More broadly, this computational approach to emotions resonates with the emerging view that psychiatric nosology may be best parameterized in terms of disorders of the cognitive computations underlying complex behavior. PMID:26869840

  11. Mars Balance Challenge

    NASA Video Gallery

    The Challenge is to develop ideas for how NASA can turn available entry, descent, and landing balance mass on a future Mars mission into a scientific or technological payload. Proposed concepts sho...

  12. Strength and Balance Exercises

    MedlinePlus

    ... Venous Thromboembolism Aortic Aneurysm More Strength and Balance Exercises Updated:Sep 8,2016 If you have medical ... if you have been inactive and want to exercise vigorously, check with your doctor before beginning a ...

  13. Balancing Work & Family.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lee, Chris

    1991-01-01

    Describes the responses of some companies to increasing demands for family-work balance in terms of flexibility in working hours and leave policies, child care, and fringe benefits. Identifies some of the effects on the "bottom line." (SK)

  14. The Balanced Literacy Diet.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willows, Dale

    2002-01-01

    Describes professional development program in Ontario school district to improve student reading and writing skills. Program used food-pyramid concepts to help teacher learn to provide a balanced and flexible approach to literacy instruction based on student needs. (PKP)

  15. Balance Function Disorders

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    1991-01-01

    Researchers at the Balance Function Laboratory and Clinic at the Minneapolis (MN) Neuroscience Institute on the Abbot Northwestern Hospital Campus are using a rotational chair (technically a "sinusoidal harmonic acceleration system") originally developed by NASA to investigate vestibular (inner ear) function in weightlessness to diagnose and treat patients with balance function disorders. Manufactured by ICS Medical Corporation, Schaumberg, IL, the chair system turns a patient and monitors his or her responses to rotational stimulation.

  16. Perceptual learning effect on decision and confidence thresholds.

    PubMed

    Solovey, Guillermo; Shalom, Diego; Pérez-Schuster, Verónica; Sigman, Mariano

    2016-10-01

    Practice can enhance of perceptual sensitivity, a well-known phenomenon called perceptual learning. However, the effect of practice on subjective perception has received little attention. We approach this problem from a visual psychophysics and computational modeling perspective. In a sequence of visual search experiments, subjects significantly increased the ability to detect a "trained target". Before and after training, subjects performed two psychophysical protocols that parametrically vary the visibility of the "trained target": an attentional blink and a visual masking task. We found that confidence increased after learning only in the attentional blink task. Despite large differences in some observables and task settings, we identify common mechanisms for decision-making and confidence. Specifically, our behavioral results and computational model suggest that perceptual ability is independent of processing time, indicating that changes in early cortical representations are effective, and learning changes decision criteria to convey choice and confidence.

  17. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals.

    PubMed

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-03-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making.

  18. Confidence and certainty: distinct probabilistic quantities for different goals

    PubMed Central

    Pouget, Alexandre; Drugowitsch, Jan; Kepecs, Adam

    2017-01-01

    When facing uncertainty, adaptive behavioral strategies demand that the brain performs probabilistic computations. In this probabilistic framework, the notion of certainty and confidence would appear to be closely related, so much so that it is tempting to conclude that these two concepts are one and the same. We argue that there are computational reasons to distinguish between these two concepts. Specifically, we propose that confidence should be defined as the probability that a decision or a proposition, overt or covert, is correct given the evidence, a critical quantity in complex sequential decisions. We suggest that the term certainty should be reserved to refer to the encoding of all other probability distributions over sensory and cognitive variables. We also discuss strategies for studying the neural codes for confidence and certainty and argue that clear definitions of neural codes are essential to understanding the relative contributions of various cortical areas to decision making. PMID:26906503

  19. Confidence intervals for effect parameters common in cancer epidemiology.

    PubMed Central

    Sato, T

    1990-01-01

    This paper reviews approximate confidence intervals for some effect parameters common in cancer epidemiology. These methods have computational feasibility and give nearly nominal coverage rates. In the analysis of crude data, the simplest type of epidemiologic analysis, parameters of interest are the odds ratio in case-control studies and the rate ratio and difference in cohort studies. These parameters can estimate the instantaneous-incidence-rate ratio and difference that are the most meaningful effect measures in cancer epidemiology. Approximate confidence intervals for these parameters including the classical Cornfield's method are mainly based on efficient scores. When some confounding factors exist, stratified analysis and summary measures for effect parameters are needed. Since the Mantel-Haenszel estimators have been widely used by epidemiologists as summary measures, confidence intervals based on the Mantel-Haenszel estimators are described. The paper also discusses recent developments in these methods. PMID:2269246

  20. Staff confidence in dealing with aggressive patients: a benchmarking exercise.

    PubMed

    McGowan, S; Wynaden, D; Harding, N; Yassine, A; Parker, J

    1999-09-01

    Interacting with potentially aggressive patients is a common occurrence for nurses working in psychiatric intensive care units. Although the literature highlights the need to educate staff in the prevention and management of aggression, often little, or no, training is provided by employers. This article describes a benchmarking exercise conducted in psychiatric intensive care units at two Western Australian hospitals to assess staff confidence in coping with patient aggression. Results demonstrated that staff in the hospital where regular training was undertaken were significantly more confident in dealing with aggression. Following the completion of a safe physical restraint module at the other hospital staff reported a significant increase in their level of confidence that either matched or bettered the results of their benchmark colleagues.

  1. Energy Balance and Obesity

    PubMed Central

    Hill, James O.; Wyatt, Holly R.; Peters, John C.

    2012-01-01

    This paper describes the interplay among energy intake, energy expenditure and body energy stores and illustrates how an understanding of energy balance can help develop strategies to reduce obesity. First, reducing obesity will require modifying both energy intake and energy expenditure and not simply focusing on either alone. Food restriction alone will not be effective in reducing obesity if human physiology is biased toward achieving energy balance at a high energy flux (i.e. at a high level of energy intake and expenditure). In previous environments a high energy flux was achieved with a high level of physical activity but in today's sedentary environment it is increasingly achieved through weight gain. Matching energy intake to a high level of energy expenditure will likely be more a more feasible strategy for most people to maintain a healthy weight than restricting food intake to meet a low level of energy expenditure. Second, from an energy balance point of view we are likely to be more successful in preventing excessive weight gain than in treating obesity. This is because the energy balance system shows much stronger opposition to weight loss than to weight gain. While large behavior changes are needed to produce and maintain reductions in body weight, small behavior changes may be sufficient to prevent excessive weight gain. In conclusion, the concept of energy balance combined with an understanding of how the body achieves balance may be a useful framework in helping develop strategies to reduce obesity rates. PMID:22753534

  2. Confidence intervals for low-level, paired counting

    SciTech Connect

    Potter, W.E.

    1999-11-01

    Fong and Alvarez (1997) make clear the lack of precision at MDA for paired counting. Confidence intervals provide a way of expressing a measurement process that lacks precision. Neyman-Pearson principles are briefly discussed and 95% confidence intervals of the form [0, {number_sign}{number_sign}.{number_sign}{number_sign}] are presented. Use is made of the fact that the probability of the difference of two random variables, each with a Poisson distribution, can be expressed in terms of modified Bessel functions of integral order and elementary functions. The validity of the values is discussed.

  3. The effect of terrorism on public confidence : an exploratory study.

    SciTech Connect

    Berry, M. S.; Baldwin, T. E.; Samsa, M. E.; Ramaprasad, A.; Decision and Information Sciences

    2008-10-31

    A primary goal of terrorism is to instill a sense of fear and vulnerability in a population and to erode confidence in government and law enforcement agencies to protect citizens against future attacks. In recognition of its importance, the Department of Homeland Security includes public confidence as one of the metrics it uses to assess the consequences of terrorist attacks. Hence, several factors--including a detailed understanding of the variations in public confidence among individuals, by type of terrorist event, and as a function of time--are critical to developing this metric. In this exploratory study, a questionnaire was designed, tested, and administered to small groups of individuals to measure public confidence in the ability of federal, state, and local governments and their public safety agencies to prevent acts of terrorism. Data were collected from the groups before and after they watched mock television news broadcasts portraying a smallpox attack, a series of suicide bomber attacks, a refinery bombing, and cyber intrusions on financial institutions that resulted in identity theft and financial losses. Our findings include the following: (a) the subjects can be classified into at least three distinct groups on the basis of their baseline outlook--optimistic, pessimistic, and unaffected; (b) the subjects make discriminations in their interpretations of an event on the basis of the nature of a terrorist attack, the time horizon, and its impact; (c) the recovery of confidence after a terrorist event has an incubation period and typically does not return to its initial level in the long-term; (d) the patterns of recovery of confidence differ between the optimists and the pessimists; and (e) individuals are able to associate a monetary value with a loss or gain in confidence, and the value associated with a loss is greater than the value associated with a gain. These findings illustrate the importance the public places in their confidence in government

  4. Watt and joule balances

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Robinson, Ian A.

    2014-04-01

    The time is fast approaching when the SI unit of mass will cease to be based on a single material artefact and will instead be based upon the defined value of a fundamental constant—the Planck constant—h . This change requires that techniques exist both to determine the appropriate value to be assigned to the constant, and to measure mass in terms of the redefined unit. It is important to ensure that these techniques are accurate and reliable to allow full advantage to be taken of the stability and universality provided by the new definition and to guarantee the continuity of the world's mass measurements, which can affect the measurement of many other quantities such as energy and force. Up to now, efforts to provide the basis for such a redefinition of the kilogram were mainly concerned with resolving the discrepancies between individual implementations of the two principal techniques: the x-ray crystal density (XRCD) method [1] and the watt and joule balance methods which are the subject of this special issue. The first three papers report results from the NRC and NIST watt balance groups and the NIM joule balance group. The result from the NRC (formerly the NPL Mk II) watt balance is the first to be reported with a relative standard uncertainty below 2 × 10-8 and the NIST result has a relative standard uncertainty below 5 × 10-8. Both results are shown in figure 1 along with some previous results; the result from the NIM group is not shown on the plot but has a relative uncertainty of 8.9 × 10-6 and is consistent with all the results shown. The Consultative Committee for Mass and Related Quantities (CCM) in its meeting in 2013 produced a resolution [2] which set out the requirements for the number, type and quality of results intended to support the redefinition of the kilogram and required that there should be agreement between them. These results from NRC, NIST and the IAC may be considered to meet these requirements and are likely to be widely debated

  5. Including "evidentiary balance" in news media coverage of vaccine risk.

    PubMed

    Clarke, Christopher E; Dixon, Graham N; Holton, Avery; McKeever, Brooke Weberling

    2015-01-01

    Journalists communicating risk-related uncertainty must accurately convey scientific evidence supporting particular conclusions. Scholars have explored how "balanced" coverage of opposing risk claims shapes uncertainty judgments. In situations where a preponderance of evidence points to a particular conclusion, balanced coverage reduces confidence in such a consensus and heightens uncertainty about whether a risk exists. Using the autism-vaccine controversy as a case study, we describe how journalists can cover multiple sides of an issue and provide insight into where the strength of evidence lies by focusing on "evidentiary balance." Our results suggest that evidentiary balance shapes perceived certainty that vaccines are safe, effective, and not linked to autism through the mediating role of a perception that scientists are divided about whether a link exists. Deference toward science, moreover, moderates these relationships under certain conditions. We discuss implications for journalism practice and risk communication.

  6. Cavendish Balance Automation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Thompson, Bryan

    2000-01-01

    This is the final report for a project carried out to modify a manual commercial Cavendish Balance for automated use in cryostat. The scope of this project was to modify an off-the-shelf manually operated Cavendish Balance to allow for automated operation for periods of hours or days in cryostat. The purpose of this modification was to allow the balance to be used in the study of effects of superconducting materials on the local gravitational field strength to determine if the strength of gravitational fields can be reduced. A Cavendish Balance was chosen because it is a fairly simple piece of equipment for measuring gravity, one the least accurately known and least understood physical constants. The principle activities that occurred under this purchase order were: (1) All the components necessary to hold and automate the Cavendish Balance in a cryostat were designed. Engineering drawings were made of custom parts to be fabricated, other off-the-shelf parts were procured; (2) Software was written in LabView to control the automation process via a stepper motor controller and stepper motor, and to collect data from the balance during testing; (3)Software was written to take the data collected from the Cavendish Balance and reduce it to give a value for the gravitational constant; (4) The components of the system were assembled and fitted to a cryostat. Also the LabView hardware including the control computer, stepper motor driver, data collection boards, and necessary cabling were assembled; and (5) The system was operated for a number of periods, data collected, and reduced to give an average value for the gravitational constant.

  7. Identifying Dynamically Induced Variability in Glacier Mass-Balance Records

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Christian, J. E.; Siler, N.; Koutnik, M. R.; Roe, G.

    2015-12-01

    Glacier mass-balance (i.e., accumulation vs. ablation) provides a direct indicator of a glacier's relationship with climate. However, mass-balance records contain noise due to internal climate variability (i.e., from stochastic fluctuations in large-scale atmospheric circulation), which can obscure or bias trends in these relatively short timeseries. This presents a challenge in correctly identifying the signature of anthropogenic change. "Dynamical adjustment" is a technique that identifies patterns of variance shared between a climate timeseries of interest (e.g., mass-balance) and independent "predictor" variables associated with large-scale circulation (e.g., Sea Level Pressure, SLP, or Sea Surface Temperature, SST). Extracting the component of variance due to internal variability leaves a residual timeseries for which trends can more confidently be attributed to external forcing. We apply dynamical adjustments based on Partial Least Squares Regression to mass-balance records from South Cascade Glacier in Washington State and Wolverine and Gulkana Glaciers in Alaska, independently analyzing seasonal balance records to assess the dynamical influences on winter accumulation and summer ablation. Seasonally averaged North Pacific SLP and SST fields perform comparably as predictor variables, explaining 50-60% of the variance in winter balance and 30-40% of variance in summer balance for South Cascade and Wolverine Glaciers. Gulkana glacier, located further inland than the other two glaciers, is less closely linked to North Pacific climate variability, with the predictors explaining roughly one-third of variance in its winter and summer balance. We analyze the significance of linear trends in the raw and adjusted mass-balance records, and find that for all three glaciers, a) summer balance shows a statistically significant downward trend that is not substantially altered when dynamically induced variability is removed, and b) winter balance shows no statistically

  8. Automatic force balance calibration system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ferris, Alice T. (Inventor)

    1996-01-01

    A system for automatically calibrating force balances is provided. The invention uses a reference balance aligned with the balance being calibrated to provide superior accuracy while minimizing the time required to complete the calibration. The reference balance and the test balance are rigidly attached together with closely aligned moment centers. Loads placed on the system equally effect each balance, and the differences in the readings of the two balances can be used to generate the calibration matrix for the test balance. Since the accuracy of the test calibration is determined by the accuracy of the reference balance and current technology allows for reference balances to be calibrated to within .+-.0.05%, the entire system has an accuracy of a .+-.0.2%. The entire apparatus is relatively small and can be mounted on a movable base for easy transport between test locations. The system can also accept a wide variety of reference balances, thus allowing calibration under diverse load and size requirements.

  9. Signatures of a Statistical Computation in the Human Sense of Confidence.

    PubMed

    Sanders, Joshua I; Hangya, Balázs; Kepecs, Adam

    2016-05-04

    Human confidence judgments are thought to originate from metacognitive processes that provide a subjective assessment about one's beliefs. Alternatively, confidence is framed in mathematics as an objective statistical quantity: the probability that a chosen hypothesis is correct. Despite similar terminology, it remains unclear whether the subjective feeling of confidence is related to the objective, statistical computation of confidence. To address this, we collected confidence reports from humans performing perceptual and knowledge-based psychometric decision tasks. We observed two counterintuitive patterns relating confidence to choice and evidence: apparent overconfidence in choices based on uninformative evidence, and decreasing confidence with increasing evidence strength for erroneous choices. We show that these patterns lawfully arise from statistical confidence, and therefore occur even for perfectly calibrated confidence measures. Furthermore, statistical confidence quantitatively accounted for human confidence in our tasks without necessitating heuristic operations. Accordingly, we suggest that the human feeling of confidence originates from a mental computation of statistical confidence.

  10. State FFA Officers' Confidence and Trustworthiness of Biotechnology Information Sources

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wingenbach, Gary J.; Rutherford, Tracy A.

    2007-01-01

    Are state FFA officers' awareness levels of agricultural topics reported in mass media superior to those who do not serve in leadership roles? The purpose of this study was to determine elected state FFA officers' awareness of biotechnology, and their confidence and trust of biotechnology information sources. Descriptive survey methods were used…

  11. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-10-01

    ... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his... such disclosures to prevent the act or protect those against whom that is threatened. The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Regarding Witnesses, Other Litigants and the Public...

  12. 49 CFR 1103.23 - Confidences of a client.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-10-01

    ... Responsibilities Toward A Client § 1103.23 Confidences of a client. (a) The practitioner's duty to preserve his... such disclosures to prevent the act or protect those against whom that is threatened. The Practitioner's Duties and Responsibilities Regarding Witnesses, Other Litigants and the Public...

  13. Academic Behavioural Confidence: A Comparison of Medical and Psychology Students

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sanders, Lalage; Sander, Paul

    2007-01-01

    Introduction. Sander, Stevenson, King and Coates (2000) identified differences between medical students in a conventional university and psychology students in a post-1992 university in their responses to different styles of learning and teaching. Method. It had been hypothesised that differing levels of confidence explained why the former felt…

  14. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  15. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2011-04-01 2011-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  16. The Reno Report: Rejuvenating Public Confidence in Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    National Association of State Education Department Information Offices, Arlington, VA.

    The rejuvenation of sagging public confidence in education through better communication was the focus of the conference. Four specific objectives were outlined: (1) to improve the ability of educators to assess public attitudes toward and interest in public education; (2) to assess the impact of different media forms on public attitudes; (3) to…

  17. 78 FR 56621 - Draft Waste Confidence Generic Environmental Impact Statement

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2013-09-13

    ... amendments to the NRC's regulations pertaining to the environmental impacts of the continued storage of spent...@nrc.gov . For technical questions, contact the individual listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... search for Docket ID NRC-2012-0246. NRC's Waste Confidence Web site: Go to...

  18. Analyzing Student Confidence in Classroom Voting with Multiple Choice Questions

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stewart, Ann; Storm, Christopher; VonEpps, Lahna

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to present results of a recent study in which students voted on multiple choice questions in mathematics courses of varying levels. Students used clickers to select the best answer among the choices given; in addition, they were also asked whether they were confident in their answer. In this paper we analyze data…

  19. Building Academic Confidence in English Language Learners in Elementary School

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vazquez, Alejandra

    2014-01-01

    Non-English speaking students lack the confidence and preparation to be verbally actively engaged in the classroom. Students may frequently display hesitation in learning to speak English, and may also lack a teacher's guidance in becoming proficient English speakers. The purpose of this research is to examine how teachers build academic…

  20. Knowledge Surveys in General Chemistry: Confidence, Overconfidence, and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bell, Priscilla; Volckmann, David

    2011-01-01

    Knowledge surveys have been used in a number of fields to assess changes in students' understanding of their own learning and to assist students in review. This study compares metacognitive confidence ratings of students faced with problems on the surveys with their actual knowledge as shown on the final exams in two courses of general chemistry…

  1. Emotions and Confidence within Teaching in Higher Education

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Postareff, Liisa; Lindblom-Ylanne, Sari

    2011-01-01

    Teaching is connected with a variety of emotions, but research on this area is scarce in the field of higher education. The present study explores the role of emotions and confidence within six different teacher profiles. Furthermore, the study aims to analyse emotions that arise during participation in courses on university pedagogy. Altogether…

  2. Panel Discussion and the Development of Students' Self Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anwar, Khoirul

    2016-01-01

    This study is to analyze the use of panel discussion towards the development of students' self confidence in learning the content subject of qualitative research concept. The study uses mix-method in which questionnaire and interview are conducted at the class of qualitative research of the sixth semester consisting twenty students especially…

  3. Effects of parental divorce on marital commitment and confidence.

    PubMed

    Whitton, Sarah W; Rhoades, Galena K; Stanley, Scott M; Markman, Howard J

    2008-10-01

    Research on the intergenerational transmission of divorce has demonstrated that compared with offspring of nondivorced parents, those of divorced parents generally have more negative attitudes toward marriage as an institution and are less optimistic about the feasibility of a long-lasting, healthy marriage. It is also possible that when entering marriage themselves, adults whose parents divorced have less personal relationship commitment to their own marriages and less confidence in their own ability to maintain a happy marriage with their spouse. However, this prediction has not been tested. In the current study, we assessed relationship commitment and relationship confidence, as well as parental divorce and retrospectively reported interparental conflict, in a sample of 265 engaged couples prior to their first marriage. Results demonstrated that women's, but not men's, parental divorce was associated with lower relationship commitment and lower relationship confidence. These effects persisted when controlling for the influence of recalled interparental conflict and premarital relationship adjustment. The current findings suggest that women whose parents divorced are more likely to enter marriage with relatively lower commitment to, and confidence in, the future of those marriages, potentially raising their risk for divorce.

  4. Confidence Testing for Knowledge-Based Global Communities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Jack, Brady Michael; Liu, Chia-Ju; Chiu, Houn-Lin; Shymansky, James A.

    2009-01-01

    This proposal advocates the position that the use of confidence wagering (CW) during testing can predict the accuracy of a student's test answer selection during between-subject assessments. Data revealed female students were more favorable to taking risks when making CW and less inclined toward risk aversion than their male counterparts. Student…

  5. Measuring Academic Behavioural Confidence: The ABC Scale Revisited

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sander, Paul; Sanders, Lalage

    2009-01-01

    The Academic Behavioural Confidence (ABC) scale has been shown to be valid and can be useful to teachers in understanding their students, enabling the design of more effective teaching sessions with large cohorts. However, some of the between-group differences have been smaller than expected, leading to the hypothesis that the ABC scale many not…

  6. Likelihood-Based Confidence Intervals in Exploratory Factor Analysis

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Oort, Frans J.

    2011-01-01

    In exploratory or unrestricted factor analysis, all factor loadings are free to be estimated. In oblique solutions, the correlations between common factors are free to be estimated as well. The purpose of this article is to show how likelihood-based confidence intervals can be obtained for rotated factor loadings and factor correlations, by…

  7. Confidence Intervals for Assessing Heterogeneity in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wagler, Amy E.

    2014-01-01

    Generalized linear mixed models are frequently applied to data with clustered categorical outcomes. The effect of clustering on the response is often difficult to practically assess partly because it is reported on a scale on which comparisons with regression parameters are difficult to make. This article proposes confidence intervals for…

  8. Disconnections between Teacher Expectations and Student Confidence in Bioethics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hanegan, Nikki L.; Price, Laura; Peterson, Jeremy

    2008-01-01

    This study examines how student practice of scientific argumentation using socioscientific bioethics issues affects both teacher expectations of students' general performance and student confidence in their own work. When teachers use bioethical issues in the classroom students can gain not only biology content knowledge but also important…

  9. On Pupils' Self-Confidence in Mathematics: Gender Comparisons

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Nurmi, Anu; Hannula, Markku; Maijala, Hanna; Pehkonen, Erkki

    2003-01-01

    In this paper we will concentrate on pupils' self-confidence in mathematics, which belongs to pupils' mathematical beliefs in themselves, and beliefs on achievement in mathematics. Research described consists of a survey of more than 3000 fifth-graders and seventh-graders. Furthermore, 40 pupils participated in a qualitative follow-up study…

  10. Technology in Teaching: Just How Confident Are Preservice Teachers?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Molebash, Philip; Milman, Natalie

    This paper examines the effectiveness of increasing the confidence of preservice teachers in using technology for personal and instructional purposes as a result of participating in an introductory educational technology course offered at the University of Virginia's Curry School of Education. Course participants attended sections designed for…

  11. Test Anxiety Reduction and Confidence Training: A Replication

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bowman, Noah; Driscoll, Richard

    2013-01-01

    This study was undertaken to replicate prior research in which a brief counter-conditioning and confidence training program was found to reduce anxiety and raise test scores. First-semester college students were screened with the Westside Test Anxiety Scale, and the 25 identified as having high or moderately-high anxiety were randomly divided…

  12. Multiple Confidence Estimates as Indices of Eyewitness Memory

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sauer, James D.; Brewer, Neil; Weber, Nathan

    2008-01-01

    Eyewitness identification decisions are vulnerable to various influences on witnesses' decision criteria that contribute to false identifications of innocent suspects and failures to choose perpetrators. An alternative procedure using confidence estimates to assess the degree of match between novel and previously viewed faces was investigated.…

  13. Gender Difference of Confidence in Using Technology for Learning

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yau, Hon Keung; Cheng, Alison Lai Fong

    2012-01-01

    Past studies have found male students to have more confidence in using technology for learning than do female students. Males tend to have more positive attitudes about the use of technology for learning than do females. According to the Women's Foundation (2006), few studies examined gender relevant research in Hong Kong. It also appears that no…

  14. Increasing Teachers' Confidence in Using Computers for Education.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Pina, Anthony A.; Harris, Bruce R.

    The anxiety or confidence that teachers display towards computers and other new technologies is a subject which should be of prime importance to teacher educators and educational technologists. Many teachers feel ill-prepared and resist the integration of computers and other technologies into their instruction. Since 1976 there has been a growing…

  15. Locus of Control and Perceived Confidence in Problem Solving Abilities

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Johnson, Barry L.; Kilmann, Peter R.

    1975-01-01

    Butterfield found that internal Ss tended to make more constructive responses to frustration-type situations than did extrenal Ss. Therefore, this study predicted that internal Ss would rate themselves as more confident with regard to problem-solving abilities than would external Ss. (Author)

  16. 21 CFR 26.37 - Confidence building activities.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-04-01

    ... 21 Food and Drugs 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Confidence building activities. 26.37 Section 26.37 Food and Drugs FOOD AND DRUG ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES GENERAL MUTUAL RECOGNITION OF PHARMACEUTICAL GOOD MANUFACTURING PRACTICE REPORTS, MEDICAL DEVICE QUALITY...

  17. Unexpected arousal modulates the influence of sensory noise on confidence

    PubMed Central

    Allen, Micah; Frank, Darya; Schwarzkopf, D Samuel; Fardo, Francesca; Winston, Joel S; Hauser, Tobias U; Rees, Geraint

    2016-01-01

    Human perception is invariably accompanied by a graded feeling of confidence that guides metacognitive awareness and decision-making. It is often assumed that this arises solely from the feed-forward encoding of the strength or precision of sensory inputs. In contrast, interoceptive inference models suggest that confidence reflects a weighted integration of sensory precision and expectations about internal states, such as arousal. Here we test this hypothesis using a novel psychophysical paradigm, in which unseen disgust-cues induced unexpected, unconscious arousal just before participants discriminated motion signals of variable precision. Across measures of perceptual bias, uncertainty, and physiological arousal we found that arousing disgust cues modulated the encoding of sensory noise. Furthermore, the degree to which trial-by-trial pupil fluctuations encoded this nonlinear interaction correlated with trial level confidence. Our results suggest that unexpected arousal regulates perceptual precision, such that subjective confidence reflects the integration of both external sensory and internal, embodied states. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18103.001 PMID:27776633

  18. Confidence in Teaching Mathematics among Malaysian Pre-Service Teachers

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yunus, Aida Suraya Md.; Hamzah, Ramlah; Ismail, Habsah; Husain, Sharifah Kartini Said; Ismail, Mat Rofa

    2006-01-01

    This study focuses on the confidence level of mathematics education students in teaching school mathematics. Respondents were 165 final year students from four Malaysian universities. It was found that the respondents showed a strong foundation in mathematics upon entrance to the university. In spite of their strong background in school…

  19. Evaluating semantic metamemory: Retrospective confidence judgements on the information subtest.

    PubMed

    Ladowsky-Brooks, Ricki L

    2016-12-12

    The current research explored the potential value of adding a supplementary measure of metamemory to the Information subtest of the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale - Third Edition (WAIS-III in Study 1) or Fourth Edition (WAIS-IV in Study 2) in order to assess its relationship to other neuropsychological measures and to brain injury. After completing the Information subtest, neuropsychological examinees were asked to make retrospective confidence judgements (RCJ) by rating their answer certainty in the original order of item administration. In Study 1 (N = 52) and study 2 (N = 30), correct answers were rated with significantly more certainty than wrong answers (termed a "confidence gap"), and in both studies, higher confidence for wrong answers was significantly correlated with poorer performance on the Wisconsin Card Sorting Test (for categories completed r = -.58 in Study 1, and r = -.47 in Study 2; for perseverative errors r = .44 in Study 1, and r = .45 in Study 2). In both studies, a number of examinees with positive CT findings had a very small or reversed confidence gap. These findings suggest that semantic metamemory is sensitive to executive functioning and brain injury and should be assessed in the neuropsychological examination.

  20. Building Confident Teachers: Preservice Physical Education Teachers' Efficacy Beliefs

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hand, Karen E.

    2014-01-01

    Understanding teachers' perceptions of their abilities across a variety of teaching strategies can provide insight for understanding teaching effectiveness and program review. Teaching efficacy reflects the degrees of confidence individuals have in their ability to successfully perform specific teaching proficiencies (Bandura, 1986). Additional…

  1. Biased but in Doubt: Conflict and Decision Confidence

    PubMed Central

    De Neys, Wim; Cromheeke, Sofie; Osman, Magda

    2011-01-01

    Human reasoning is often biased by intuitive heuristics. A central question is whether the bias results from a failure to detect that the intuitions conflict with traditional normative considerations or from a failure to discard the tempting intuitions. The present study addressed this unresolved debate by using people's decision confidence as a nonverbal index of conflict detection. Participants were asked to indicate how confident they were after solving classic base-rate (Experiment 1) and conjunction fallacy (Experiment 2) problems in which a cued intuitive response could be inconsistent or consistent with the traditional correct response. Results indicated that reasoners showed a clear confidence decrease when they gave an intuitive response that conflicted with the normative response. Contrary to popular belief, this establishes that people seem to acknowledge that their intuitive answers are not fully warranted. Experiment 3 established that younger reasoners did not yet show the confidence decrease, which points to the role of improved bias awareness in our reasoning development. Implications for the long standing debate on human rationality are discussed. PMID:21283574

  2. Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

    2013-01-01

    Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

  3. Researchers Misunderstand Confidence Intervals and Standard Error Bars

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Belia, Sarah; Fidler, Fiona; Williams, Jennifer; Cumming, Geoff

    2005-01-01

    Little is known about researchers' understanding of confidence intervals (CIs) and standard error (SE) bars. Authors of journal articles in psychology, behavioral neuroscience, and medicine were invited to visit a Web site where they adjusted a figure until they judged 2 means, with error bars, to be just statistically significantly different (p…

  4. Keeping Covenants and Confidence Sacred: One Point of View.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Driscoll, Jeanine M.

    1992-01-01

    Notes that counselors struggle with dilemma of whether to breach therapeutic confidence in instance when human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected client has informed counselor of continued sexual activity or injectable substance-using activity without informing his or her partner(s) of HIV-positive sero-status. Asserts that ethics of covenant…

  5. Knowledge and Confidence of Speech-Language Pathologists Regarding Autism

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Ray, Julie M.

    2010-01-01

    The increased prevalence rate of autism has immense implications for speech language pathologists (SLPs) who are directly involved in the education and service delivery for students with autism. However, few studies have documented the effectiveness of the knowledge and confidence of SLPs regarding autism. The purpose of this study was to measure…

  6. Intuitive Confidence: Choosing between Intuitive and Nonintuitive Alternatives

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Simmons, Joseph P.; Nelson, Leif D.

    2006-01-01

    People often choose intuitive rather than equally valid nonintuitive alternatives. The authors suggest that these intuitive biases arise because intuitions often spring to mind with subjective ease, and the subjective ease leads people to hold their intuitions with high confidence. An investigation of predictions against point spreads found that…

  7. Family Background, Self-Confidence and Economic Outcomes

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Filippin, Antonio; Paccagnella, Marco

    2012-01-01

    In this paper we analyze the role played by self-confidence, modeled as beliefs about one's ability, in shaping task choices. We propose a model in which fully rational agents exploit all the available information to update their beliefs using Bayes' rule, eventually learning their true type. We show that when the learning process does not…

  8. Does Students' Confidence in Their Ability in Mathematics Matter?

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Parsons, Sarah; Croft, Tony; Harrison, Martin

    2009-01-01

    Research was conducted into first year engineering students' learning of mathematics in a university college during 2005-2007. The aims were to understand better students' confidences and explore which factors affected performance and how these were inter-related. Questionnaires were administered which posed questions regarding previous…

  9. North Dakota Leadership Training Boosts Confidence and Involvement

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Flage, Lynette; Hvidsten, Marie; Vettern, Rachelle

    2012-01-01

    Effective leadership is critical for communities as they work to maintain their vitality and sustainability for years to come. The purpose of the study reported here was to assess confidence levels and community engagement of community leadership program participants in North Dakota State University Extension programs. Through a survey…

  10. Confidence bands for measured economically optimal nitrogen rates

    Technology Transfer Automated Retrieval System (TEKTRAN)

    While numerous researchers have computed economically optimal N rate (EONR) values from measured yield – N rate data, nearly all have neglected to compute or estimate the statistical reliability of these EONR values. In this study, a simple method for computing EONR and its confidence bands is descr...

  11. Constructing Approximate Confidence Intervals for Parameters with Structural Equation Models

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Cheung, Mike W. -L.

    2009-01-01

    Confidence intervals (CIs) for parameters are usually constructed based on the estimated standard errors. These are known as Wald CIs. This article argues that likelihood-based CIs (CIs based on likelihood ratio statistics) are often preferred to Wald CIs. It shows how the likelihood-based CIs and the Wald CIs for many statistics and psychometric…

  12. Validation of a questionnaire to measure mathematics confidence, computer confidence, and attitudes towards the use of technology for learning mathematics

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fogarty, Gerry; Cretchley, Patricia; Harman, Chris; Ellerton, Nerida; Konki, Nissam

    2001-09-01

    This study reports on the validation of a questionnaire designed to measure general mathematics confidence, general confidence with using technology, and attitudes towards the use of technology for mathematics learning. A questionnaire was administered to 289 students commencing a tertiary level course on linear algebra and calculus. Scales formed on the basis of factor analysis demonstrated high internal consistency reliability and divergent validity. A repeat administration confirmed the earlier psychometric findings as well as establishing good test-retest reliability. The resulting instrument can be used to measure attitudinal factors that mediate the effective use of technology in mathematics learning.

  13. A Wii Bit of Fun: A Novel Platform to Deliver Effective Balance Training to Older Adults

    PubMed Central

    Merriman, Niamh A.; Young, William R.; Newell, Fiona N.; Craig, Cathy

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Background: Falls and fall-related injuries are symptomatic of an aging population. This study aimed to design, develop, and deliver a novel method of balance training, using an interactive game-based system to promote engagement, with the inclusion of older adults at both high and low risk of experiencing a fall. Study Design: Eighty-two older adults (65 years of age and older) were recruited from sheltered accommodation and local activity groups. Forty volunteers were randomly selected and received 5 weeks of balance game training (5 males, 35 females; mean, 77.18 ± 6.59 years), whereas the remaining control participants recorded levels of physical activity (20 males, 22 females; mean, 76.62 ± 7.28 years). The effect of balance game training was measured on levels of functional balance and balance confidence in individuals with and without quantifiable balance impairments. Results: Balance game training had a significant effect on levels of functional balance and balance confidence (P < 0.05). This was further demonstrated in participants who were deemed at high risk of falls. The overall pattern of results suggests the training program is effective and suitable for individuals at all levels of ability and may therefore play a role in reducing the risk of falls. Conclusions: Commercial hardware can be modified to deliver engaging methods of effective balance assessment and training for the older population. PMID:26469308

  14. Confidence Preserving Machine for Facial Action Unit Detection.

    PubMed

    Zeng, Jiabei; Chu, Wen-Sheng; De la Torre, Fernando; Cohn, Jeffrey F; Xiong, Zhang

    2016-07-27

    Facial action unit (AU) detection from video has been a long-standing problem in automated facial expression analysis. While progress has been made, accurate detection of facial AUs remains challenging due to ubiquitous sources of errors, such as inter-personal variability, pose, and low-intensity AUs. In this paper, we refer to samples causing such errors as hard samples, and the remaining as easy samples. To address learning with the hard samples, we propose the Confidence Preserving Machine (CPM), a novel two-stage learning framework that combines multiple classifiers following an "easy-to-hard" strategy. During the training stage, CPM learns two confident classifiers. Each classifier focuses on separating easy samples of one class from all else, and thus preserves confidence on predicting each class. During the testing stage, the confident classifiers provide "virtual labels" for easy test samples. Given the virtual labels, we propose a quasi-semi-supervised (QSS) learning strategy to learn a person-specific (PS) classifier. The QSS strategy employs a spatio-temporal smoothness that encourages similar predictions for samples within a spatio-temporal neighborhood. In addition, to further improve detection performance, we introduce two CPM extensions: iCPM that iteratively augments training samples to train the confident classifiers, and kCPM that kernelizes the original CPM model to promote nonlinearity. Experiments on four spontaneous datasets GFT [15], BP4D [56], DISFA [42], and RU-FACS [3] illustrate the benefits of the proposed CPM models over baseline methods and state-of-the-art semisupervised learning and transfer learning methods.

  15. Relating the Content and Confidence of Recognition Judgments

    PubMed Central

    Selmeczy, Diana; Dobbins, Ian G.

    2014-01-01

    The Remember/Know procedure, developed by Tulving (1985) to capture the distinction between the conscious correlates of episodic and semantic retrieval, has spurned considerable research and debate. However, only a handful of reports have examined the recognition content beyond this dichotomous simplification. To address this, we collected participants’ written justifications in support of ordinary old/new recognition decisions accompanied by confidence ratings using a 3-point scale (high/medium/low). Unlike prior research, we did not provide the participants with any descriptions of Remembering or Knowing and thus, if the justifications mapped well onto theory, they would do so spontaneously. Word frequency analysis (unigrams, bigrams, and trigrams), independent ratings, and machine learning techniques (Support Vector Machine - SVM) converged in demonstrating that the linguistic content of high and medium confidence recognition differs in a manner consistent with dual process theories of recognition. For example, the use of ‘I remember’, particularly when combined with temporal or perceptual information (e.g., ‘when’, ‘saw’, ‘distinctly’), was heavily associated with high confidence recognition. Conversely, participants also used the absence of remembering for personally distinctive materials as support for high confidence new reports (‘would have remembered’). Thus, participants afford a special status to the presence or absence of remembering and use this actively as a basis for high confidence during recognition judgments. Additionally, the pattern of classification successes and failures of a SVM was well anticipated by the Dual Process Signal Detection model of recognition and inconsistent with a single process, strictly unidimensional approach. “One might think that memory should have something to do with remembering, and remembering is a conscious experience.”(Tulving, 1985, p. 1) PMID:23957366

  16. Independent Neural Computation of Value from Other People's Confidence.

    PubMed

    Campbell-Meiklejohn, Daniel; Simonsen, Arndis; Frith, Chris D; Daw, Nathaniel D

    2017-01-18

    Expectation of reward can be shaped by the observation of actions and expressions of other people in one's environment. A person's apparent confidence in the likely reward of an action, for instance, makes qualities of their evidence, not observed directly, socially accessible. This strategy is computationally distinguished from associative learning methods that rely on direct observation, by its use of inference from indirect evidence. In twenty-three healthy human subjects, we isolated effects of first-hand experience, other people's choices, and the mediating effect of their confidence, on decision-making and neural correlates of value within ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC). Value derived from first-hand experience and other people's choices (regardless of confidence) were indiscriminately represented across vmPFC. However, value computed from agent choices weighted by their associated confidence was represented with specificity for ventromedial area 10. This pattern corresponds to shifts of connectivity and overlapping cognitive processes along a posterior-anterior vmPFC axis. Task behavior and self-reported self-reliance for decision-making in other social contexts correlated. The tendency to conform in other social contexts corresponded to increased activation in cortical regions previously shown to respond to social conflict in proportion to subsequent conformity (Campbell-Meiklejohn et al., 2010). The tendency to self-monitor predicted a selectively enhanced response to accordance with others in the right temporoparietal junction (rTPJ). The findings anatomically decompose vmPFC value representations according to computational requirements and provide biological insight into the social transmission of preference and reassurance gained from the confidence of others.

  17. Sport-specific balance.

    PubMed

    Zemková, Erika

    2014-05-01

    This review includes the latest findings based on experimental studies addressing sport-specific balance, an area of research that has grown dramatically in recent years. The main objectives of this work were to investigate the postural sway response to different forms of exercise under laboratory and sport-specific conditions, to examine how this effect can vary with expertise, and to provide examples of the association of impaired balance with sport performance and/or increasing risk of injury. In doing so, sports where body balance is one of the limiting factors of performance were analyzed. While there are no significant differences in postural stability between athletes of different specializations and physically active individuals during standing in a standard upright position (e.g., bipedal stance), they have a better ability to maintain balance in specific conditions (e.g., while standing on a narrow area of support). Differences in magnitude of balance impairment after specific exercises (rebound jumps, repeated rotations, etc.) and mainly in speed of its readjustment to baseline are also observed. Besides some evidence on an association of greater postural sway with the increasing risk of injuries, there are many myths related to the negative influence of impaired balance on sport performance. Though this may be true for shooting or archery, findings have shown that in many other sports, highly skilled athletes are able to perform successfully in spite of increased postural sway. These findings may contribute to better understanding of the postural control system under various performance requirements. It may provide useful knowledge for designing training programs for specific sports.

  18. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    SciTech Connect

    Hendrickson, B.; Leland, R.

    1993-01-01

    We describe an algorithm for the static load balancing of scientific computations that generalizes and improves upon spectral bisection. Through a novel use of multiple eigenvectors, our new spectral algorithm can divide a computation into 4 or 8 pieces at once. These multidimensional spectral partitioning algorithms generate balanced partitions that have lower communication overhead and are less expensive to compute than those produced by spectral bisection. In addition, they automatically work to minimize message contention on a hypercube or mesh architecture. These spectral partitions are further improved by a multidimensional generalization of the Kernighan-Lin graph partitioning algorithm. Results on several computational grids are given and compared with other popular methods.

  19. Rotary and Magnus balances

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Malcolm, G. N.

    1981-01-01

    Two wind tunnel techniques for determining part of the aerodynamic information required to describe the dynamic bahavior of various types of vehicles in flight are described. Force and moment measurements are determined with a rotary-balance apparatus in a coning motion and with a Magnus balance in a high-speed spinning motion. Coning motion is pertinent to both aircraft and missiles, and spinning is important for spin stabilized missiles. Basic principles of both techniques are described, and specific examples of each type of apparatus are presented. Typical experimental results are also discussed.

  20. Confidence intervals in Flow Forecasting by using artificial neural networks

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Panagoulia, Dionysia; Tsekouras, George

    2014-05-01

    One of the major inadequacies in implementation of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) for flow forecasting is the development of confidence intervals, because the relevant estimation cannot be implemented directly, contrasted to the classical forecasting methods. The variation in the ANN output is a measure of uncertainty in the model predictions based on the training data set. Different methods for uncertainty analysis, such as bootstrap, Bayesian, Monte Carlo, have already proposed for hydrologic and geophysical models, while methods for confidence intervals, such as error output, re-sampling, multi-linear regression adapted to ANN have been used for power load forecasting [1-2]. The aim of this paper is to present the re-sampling method for ANN prediction models and to develop this for flow forecasting of the next day. The re-sampling method is based on the ascending sorting of the errors between real and predicted values for all input vectors. The cumulative sample distribution function of the prediction errors is calculated and the confidence intervals are estimated by keeping the intermediate value, rejecting the extreme values according to the desired confidence levels, and holding the intervals symmetrical in probability. For application of the confidence intervals issue, input vectors are used from the Mesochora catchment in western-central Greece. The ANN's training algorithm is the stochastic training back-propagation process with decreasing functions of learning rate and momentum term, for which an optimization process is conducted regarding the crucial parameters values, such as the number of neurons, the kind of activation functions, the initial values and time parameters of learning rate and momentum term etc. Input variables are historical data of previous days, such as flows, nonlinearly weather related temperatures and nonlinearly weather related rainfalls based on correlation analysis between the under prediction flow and each implicit input

  1. The Effects of Nonnormal Distributions on Confidence Intervals around the Standardized Mean Difference: Bootstrap and Parametric Confidence Intervals

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Kelley, Ken

    2005-01-01

    The standardized group mean difference, Cohen's "d", is among the most commonly used and intuitively appealing effect sizes for group comparisons. However, reporting this point estimate alone does not reflect the extent to which sampling error may have led to an obtained value. A confidence interval expresses the uncertainty that exists between…

  2. Students' intentions towards studying science at upper-secondary school: the differential effects of under-confidence and over-confidence

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Sheldrake, Richard

    2016-05-01

    Understanding students' intentions to study science at upper-secondary school, at university, and to follow science careers continues as a central concern for international science education. Prior research has highlighted that students' science confidence has been associated with their intentions to study science further, although under-confidence and over-confidence (lower or higher confidence than expected, given someone's attainment) have not been considered in detail. Accordingly, this study explored whether under-confident, accurately evaluating, and over-confident students expressed different attitudes towards their science education, and explored how under-confidence and over-confidence might influence students' science intentions. The questionnaire responses of 1523 students from 12 secondary schools in England were considered through analysis of variance and predictive modelling. Under-confident students expressed consistently lower science attitudes than accurately evaluating and over-confident students, despite reporting the same science grades as accurately evaluating students. Students' intentions to study science were predicted by different factors in different ways, depending on whether the students were under-confident, accurate, or over-confident. For accurately evaluating and over-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-efficacy beliefs (their confidence in their expected future science attainment). For under-confident students, science intentions were predicted by their self-concept beliefs (their confidence in currently 'doing well' or 'being good' at science). Many other differences were also apparent. Fundamentally, under-confidence may be detrimental not simply through associating with lower attitudes, but through students considering their choices in different ways. Under-confidence may accordingly require attention to help ensure that students' future choices are not unnecessarily constrained.

  3. A Balancing Act

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Lewis, Tamika; Mobley, Mary; Huttenlock, Daniel

    2013-01-01

    It's the season for the job hunt, whether one is looking for their first job or taking the next step along their career path. This article presents first-person accounts to see how teachers balance the rewards and challenges of working in different types of schools. Tamica Lewis, a third-grade teacher, states that faculty at her school is…

  4. Multidimensional spectral load balancing

    DOEpatents

    Hendrickson, Bruce A.; Leland, Robert W.

    1996-12-24

    A method of and apparatus for graph partitioning involving the use of a plurality of eigenvectors of the Laplacian matrix of the graph of the problem for which load balancing is desired. The invention is particularly useful for optimizing parallel computer processing of a problem and for minimizing total pathway lengths of integrated circuits in the design stage.

  5. Balancing Family and Work.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Yahnke, Sally; And Others

    The purpose of this monograph is to present a series of activities designed to teach strategies needed for effectively managing the multiple responsibilities of family and work. The guide contains 11 lesson plans dealing with balancing family and work that can be used in any home economics class, from middle school through college. The lesson…

  6. Balancing Your Evaluation Act.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Willyerd, Karie A.

    1997-01-01

    Looks at different performance-measurement tools than can ensure that a training or performance solution is strategically aligned, objectively evaluated, and quantitatively measured for results. Suggests aiming for a balance among the financial, customer, and internal perspectives and the innovation and learning that can result. (Author/JOW)

  7. Balance functions reexamined

    SciTech Connect

    Bialas, A.

    2011-02-15

    The idea of glue clusters, i.e., short-range correlations in the quark-gluon plasma close to freeze-out, is used to estimate the width of balance functions in momentum space. A good agreement is found with the recent measurements of the STAR Collaboration for central Au-Au collisions.

  8. Regulation of Energy Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Bray, George A.

    1985-01-01

    Explains relationships between energy intake and expenditure focusing on the cellular, chemical and neural mechanisms involved in regulation of energy balance. Information is referenced specifically to conditions of obesity. (Physicians may earn continuing education credit by completing an appended test). (ML)

  9. Finding a Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Gordon, Milton A.; Gordon, Margaret F.

    1996-01-01

    New college presidents are inundated with requests for their time, and their private life is often sacrificed. Each administrator must decide what is the appropriate balance among various aspects of his/her position. Physical separation of public and private lives is essential, and the role of the spouse, who may have other professional…

  10. Lives in the Balance.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Our Children, 1997

    1997-01-01

    Changes in the workplace that would provide flexibility for working parents are slowly developing and receiving government, business, and societal attention. A sidebar, "Mother, Professional, Volunteer: One Woman's Balancing Act," presents an account of how one woman rearranged her professional life to enable her to do full-time…

  11. Dynamic localized load balancing

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Balandin, Sergey I.; Heiner, Andreas P.

    2003-08-01

    Traditionally dynamic load balancing is applied in resource-reserved connection-oriented networks with a large degree of managed control. Load balancing in connectionless networks is rather rudimentary and is either static or requires network-wide load information. This paper presents a fully automated, traffic driven dynamic load balancing mechanism that uses local load information. The proposed mechanism is easily deployed in a multi-vendor environment in which only a subset of routers supports the function. The Dynamic Localized Load Balancing (DLLB) mechanism distributes traffic based on two sets of weights. The first set is fixed and is inverse proportional to the path cost, typically the sum of reciprocal bandwidths along the path. The second weight reflects the utilization of the link to the first next hop along the path, and is therefore variable. The ratio of static weights defines the ideal load distribution, the ratio of variable weights the node-local load distribution estimate. By minimizing the difference between variable and fixed ratios the traffic distribution, with the available node-local knowledge, is optimal. The above mechanism significantly increases throughput and decreases delay from a network-wide perspective. Optionally the variable weight can include load information of nodes downstream to prevent congestion on those nodes. The latter function further improves network performance, and is easily implemented on top of the standard OSPF signaling. The mechanism does not require many node resources and can be implemented on existing router platforms.

  12. Maintaining an Environmental Balance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Environmental Science and Technology, 1976

    1976-01-01

    A recent conference of the National Environmental Development Association focused on the concepts of environment, energy and economy and underscored the necessity for balancing the critical needs embodied in these issues. Topics discussed included: nuclear energy and wastes, water pollution control, federal regulations, environmental technology…

  13. Simulator effects on cognitive skills and confidence levels.

    PubMed

    Brannan, Jane D; White, Anne; Bezanson, Judy L

    2008-11-01

    Use of a human patient simulator (HPS) as a tool for experiential learning provides a mechanism by which students can participate in clinical decision making, practice skills, and observe outcomes from clinical decisions. The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness of two instructional methods to teach specific nursing education content, acute myocardial infarction, on junior-level nursing students' cognitive skills and confidence. The instructional methods included an interactive approach using the HPS method, compared with traditional classroom lecture. Results of this study suggest that use of a teaching strategy involving the HPS method made a positive difference in the nursing students' ability to answer questions on a test of cognitive skills. Confidence levels were not found to be significantly enhanced by use of the HPS method.

  14. A quantitative evaluation of confidence measures for stereo vision.

    PubMed

    Hu, Xiaoyan; Mordohai, Philippos

    2012-11-01

    We present an extensive evaluation of 17 confidence measures for stereo matching that compares the most widely used measures as well as several novel techniques proposed here. We begin by categorizing these methods according to which aspects of stereo cost estimation they take into account and then assess their strengths and weaknesses. The evaluation is conducted using a winner-take-all framework on binocular and multibaseline datasets with ground truth. It measures the capability of each confidence method to rank depth estimates according to their likelihood for being correct, to detect occluded pixels, and to generate low-error depth maps by selecting among multiple hypotheses for each pixel. Our work was motivated by the observation that such an evaluation is missing from the rapidly maturing stereo literature and that our findings would be helpful to researchers in binocular and multiview stereo.

  15. Replication, falsification, and the crisis of confidence in social psychology

    PubMed Central

    Earp, Brian D.; Trafimow, David

    2015-01-01

    The (latest) crisis in confidence in social psychology has generated much heated discussion about the importance of replication, including how it should be carried out as well as interpreted by scholars in the field. For example, what does it mean if a replication attempt “fails”—does it mean that the original results, or the theory that predicted them, have been falsified? And how should “failed” replications affect our belief in the validity of the original research? In this paper, we consider the replication debate from a historical and philosophical perspective, and provide a conceptual analysis of both replication and falsification as they pertain to this important discussion. Along the way, we highlight the importance of auxiliary assumptions (for both testing theories and attempting replications), and introduce a Bayesian framework for assessing “failed” replications in terms of how they should affect our confidence in original findings. PMID:26042061

  16. Probabilistic confidence for decisions based on uncertain reliability estimates

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reid, Stuart G.

    2013-05-01

    Reliability assessments are commonly carried out to provide a rational basis for risk-informed decisions concerning the design or maintenance of engineering systems and structures. However, calculated reliabilities and associated probabilities of failure often have significant uncertainties associated with the possible estimation errors relative to the 'true' failure probabilities. For uncertain probabilities of failure, a measure of 'probabilistic confidence' has been proposed to reflect the concern that uncertainty about the true probability of failure could result in a system or structure that is unsafe and could subsequently fail. The paper describes how the concept of probabilistic confidence can be applied to evaluate and appropriately limit the probabilities of failure attributable to particular uncertainties such as design errors that may critically affect the dependability of risk-acceptance decisions. This approach is illustrated with regard to the dependability of structural design processes based on prototype testing with uncertainties attributable to sampling variability.

  17. An Overview of Space Exploration Simulation (Basis of Confidence) Documentation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Bray, Alleen; Hale, Joseph P.

    2006-01-01

    Models and simulations (M&S) are critical resources in the exploration of space. They support program management, systems engineering, integration, analysis, test, and operations by providing critical information that supports key analyses and decisions (technical, cost and schedule). Consequently, there is a clear need to establish a solid understanding of M&S strengths and weaknesses, and the bounds within which they can credibly support decision making. In this presentation we will describe how development of simulation capability documentation will be used to form a Basis of Confidence (Basis of Confidence) for National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) M&S. The process by which BOC documentation is developed will be addressed, as well as the structure and critical concepts that are essential for establishing credibility of NASA's Exploration Systems Mission Directorate (ESMD) legacy M&S. We will illustrate the significance of BOC documentation in supporting decision makers and Accreditation Authorities in M&S risk management.

  18. Representing Autonomous Systems Self-Confidence through Competency Boundaries

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2015-01-01

    Thomas Hughes Infoscitex Corporation , Dayton, OH, USA A method for determining the self-confidence of autonomous systems is proposed to assist...teaming. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The work presented was supported by the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL) and Infoscitex Corporation . REFERENCES...Henson, T. D., Daniels, J. W., Jordan, J. D., Shcroder, K. L., & Shokair, I. R. (1998). Sandia multispectral airborne lidar for UAV deployment

  19. Confidence Links Between Name Entities in Disparate Documents

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2013-09-03

    entity/subject. For example, the Wikipedia page title for the article referring to Benjamin Franklin (the Founding Father of the United States) is...differ- ent from the page title for the article referring to Benjamin Franklin (the 19’h century religious leader). Using this infor- 60 mation...c12) United States Patent Baronet al. (54) CONFIDENCE LINKS BETWEEN NAME ENTITIES IN DISPARATE DOCUMENTS (75) Inventors : Alex Baron, Canton, MA

  20. Simultaneous confidence bands for Cox regression from semiparametric random censorship.

    PubMed

    Mondal, Shoubhik; Subramanian, Sundarraman

    2016-01-01

    Cox regression is combined with semiparametric random censorship models to construct simultaneous confidence bands (SCBs) for subject-specific survival curves. Simulation results are presented to compare the performance of the proposed SCBs with the SCBs that are based only on standard Cox. The new SCBs provide correct empirical coverage and are more informative. The proposed SCBs are illustrated with two real examples. An extension to handle missing censoring indicators is also outlined.

  1. Empirical Determination of Pattern Match Confidence in Labeled Graphs

    DTIC Science & Technology

    2014-02-07

    valid, and the indicated false positive rates could be misleading . Further study of real-world datasets should reveal if such graphs appear within...labeled graphs Dr. Ben Migliori, Dr. Daniel Grady, and Dr. James Law Prepared by Space and Naval Warfare Systems Center, 53560 Hull Street, San Diego...to 00-00-2014 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Empirical determination of pattern match confidence in labeled graphs 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER

  2. Empirical Likelihood-Based Confidence Interval of ROC Curves.

    PubMed

    Su, Haiyan; Qin, Yongsong; Liang, Hua

    2009-11-01

    In this article we propose an empirical likelihood-based confidence interval for receiver operating characteristic curves which are based on a continuous-scale test. The approach is easily understood, simply implemented, and computationally efficient. The results from our simulation studies indicate that the finite-sample numerical performance slightly outperforms the most promising methods published recently. Two real datasets are analyzed by using the proposed method and the existing bootstrap-based method.

  3. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C; LaFreniere, D; Macintosh, B; Doyon, R

    2008-06-02

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  4. Confidence Level and Sensitivity Limits in High Contrast Imaging

    SciTech Connect

    Marois, C

    2007-11-07

    In long adaptive optics corrected exposures, exoplanet detections are currently limited by speckle noise originating from the telescope and instrument optics, and it is expected that such noise will also limit future high-contrast imaging instruments for both ground and space-based telescopes. Previous theoretical analysis have shown that the time intensity variations of a single speckle follows a modified Rician. It is first demonstrated here that for a circular pupil this temporal intensity distribution also represents the speckle spatial intensity distribution at a fix separation from the point spread function center; this fact is demonstrated using numerical simulations for coronagraphic and non-coronagraphic data. The real statistical distribution of the noise needs to be taken into account explicitly when selecting a detection threshold appropriate for some desired confidence level. In this paper, a technique is described to obtain the pixel intensity distribution of an image and its corresponding confidence level as a function of the detection threshold. Using numerical simulations, it is shown that in the presence of speckles noise, a detection threshold up to three times higher is required to obtain a confidence level equivalent to that at 5{sigma} for Gaussian noise. The technique is then tested using TRIDENT CFHT and angular differential imaging NIRI Gemini adaptive optics data. It is found that the angular differential imaging technique produces quasi-Gaussian residuals, a remarkable result compared to classical adaptive optic imaging. A power-law is finally derived to predict the 1-3 x 10{sup -7} confidence level detection threshold when averaging a partially correlated non-Gaussian noise.

  5. Confidant Network Types and Well-Being Among Older Europeans

    PubMed Central

    Litwin, Howard; Stoeckel, Kimberly J.

    2014-01-01

    Purpose of the Study: To derive a typology of confidant networks among older adults in Europe and to examine them in relation to country differences and well-being (CASP-12). Design and Methods: The study population was composed of persons aged 65 and older in 16 countries from the 4th wave of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (N = 28,697). K-means cluster analysis was applied to data from a newly implemented name-generating network inventory. CASP-12 scores were regressed on network type controlling for country and potential sociodemographic and health confounders. Results: Six prototypical confidant network types were discerned, including proximal and distal family-based networks of varying configurations, as well as friend-based and other-based network types. Regional country differences in network type constellations were observed. Better well-being was found to be associated with network types with greater social capital. Respondents with no named confidants had the lowest CASP-12 scores, and those embedded in “other” network types also exhibited a negative association with well-being. Implications: The study demonstrates the utility of name-generating network inventories in understanding the social capital of older persons. It also shows that accessible family ties are strong correlates of well-being in this population. Finally, it documents the importance of improving the means to detect the small but significant subgroup of isolated older people—those who have no confidants on whom they may rely. PMID:23749390

  6. On Lower Confidence for PCS in Truncated Location Parameter Models

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1989-06-01

    statistic for the parameter 9i. The natural selection rule is to select the population yielding the largest Xi as the best population. Thus, a question ...group. Then, a reasonable question is: what kind of confidence statement can be made regarding the PCS? For this purpose, based on the above given data...Institute of Statistics Purdue University National Central University West Lafayette, IN, USA Chung-Li, Taiwan, R.O.C. TaChen Liang Department of Mathematics

  7. Enabling students to develop confidence in basic clinical skills.

    PubMed

    Mayne, Wendy; Jootun, Dev; Young, Beverley; Marland, Glenn; Harris, Margaret; Lyttle, C Paul

    An increase in the number of nursing students is making it difficult to guarantee those on the common foundation programme the opportunity to practise basic nursing skills. In order to address this problem a nursing college developed a skills week that enabled students to practise their skills and develop confidence. Simulated clinical situations gave students the opportunity to relate these skills to practice while learning about teamwork and holistic patient care.

  8. A quantitative confidence signal detection model: 1. Fitting psychometric functions

    PubMed Central

    Yi, Yongwoo

    2016-01-01

    Perceptual thresholds are commonly assayed in the laboratory and clinic. When precision and accuracy are required, thresholds are quantified by fitting a psychometric function to forced-choice data. The primary shortcoming of this approach is that it typically requires 100 trials or more to yield accurate (i.e., small bias) and precise (i.e., small variance) psychometric parameter estimates. We show that confidence probability judgments combined with a model of confidence can yield psychometric parameter estimates that are markedly more precise and/or markedly more efficient than conventional methods. Specifically, both human data and simulations show that including confidence probability judgments for just 20 trials can yield psychometric parameter estimates that match the precision of those obtained from 100 trials using conventional analyses. Such an efficiency advantage would be especially beneficial for tasks (e.g., taste, smell, and vestibular assays) that require more than a few seconds for each trial, but this potential benefit could accrue for many other tasks. PMID:26763777

  9. Some Improvements in Confidence Intervals for Standardized Regression Coefficients.

    PubMed

    Dudgeon, Paul

    2017-03-13

    Yuan and Chan (Psychometrika 76:670-690, 2011. doi: 10.1007/S11336-011-9224-6 ) derived consistent confidence intervals for standardized regression coefficients under fixed and random score assumptions. Jones and Waller (Psychometrika 80:365-378, 2015. doi: 10.1007/S11336-013-9380-Y ) extended these developments to circumstances where data are non-normal by examining confidence intervals based on Browne's (Br J Math Stat Psychol 37:62-83, 1984. doi: 10.1111/j.2044-8317.1984.tb00789.x ) asymptotic distribution-free (ADF) theory. Seven different heteroscedastic-consistent (HC) estimators were investigated in the current study as potentially better solutions for constructing confidence intervals on standardized regression coefficients under non-normality. Normal theory, ADF, and HC estimators were evaluated in a Monte Carlo simulation. Findings confirmed the superiority of the HC3 (MacKinnon and White, J Econ 35:305-325, 1985. doi: 10.1016/0304-4076(85)90158-7 ) and HC5 (Cribari-Neto and Da Silva, Adv Stat Anal 95:129-146, 2011. doi: 10.1007/s10182-010-0141-2 ) interval estimators over Jones and Waller's ADF estimator under all conditions investigated, as well as over the normal theory method. The HC5 estimator was more robust in a restricted set of conditions over the HC3 estimator. Some possible extensions of HC estimators to other effect size measures are considered for future developments.

  10. Farmers' confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis.

    PubMed

    Enticott, G; Maye, D; Ilbery, B; Fisher, R; Kirwan, J

    2012-02-25

    This paper examines UK farmers' levels of confidence in vaccinating badgers against bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and their trust in the Government's ability to deal with bTB. In 2010, a badger vaccine based on the BCG vaccine was licensed following field trials and used as part of the UK Government's Badger Vaccination Deployment Project. A stratified random sample of cattle farmers in five different locations of England was surveyed using a telephone survey to elicit their views of badger vaccination. The survey provided a total of 341 responses with a response rate of 80 per cent. Results suggest that the farmers are cautious about badger vaccination, appearing to be neither overly confident nor unconfident in it. However, the farmers did not reveal high levels of trust in the Government to manage bTB policy or badger vaccination. There were no differences in the levels of confidence or trust between farms that were under bTB restrictions at the time of the survey and those that were not or between farms with historically high levels of bTB. Analysis of principal components suggests that 33 per cent of the farmers accepted badger vaccination, but that acceptance is dependent on the wider social and political environment.

  11. Continuous Opinion Dynamics Under Bounded Confidence:. a Survey

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lorenz, Jan

    Models of continuous opinion dynamics under bounded confidence have been presented independently by Krause and Hegselmann and by Deffuant et al. in 2000. They have raised a fair amount of attention in the communities of social simulation, sociophysics and complexity science. The researchers working on it come from disciplines such as physics, mathematics, computer science, social psychology and philosophy. In these models agents hold continuous opinions which they can gradually adjust if they hear the opinions of others. The idea of bounded confidence is that agents only interact if they are close in opinion to each other. Usually, the models are analyzed with agent-based simulations in a Monte Carlo style, but they can also be reformulated on the agent's density in the opinion space in a master equation style. The contribution of this survey is fourfold. First, it will present the agent-based and density-based modeling frameworks including the cases of multidimensional opinions and heterogeneous bounds of confidence. Second, it will give the bifurcation diagrams of cluster configuration in the homogeneous model with uniformly distributed initial opinions. Third, it will review the several extensions and the evolving phenomena which have been studied so far, and fourth it will state some open questions.

  12. Confidence intervals for expected moments algorithm flood quantile estimates

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Cohn, T.A.; Lane, W.L.; Stedinger, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    Historical and paleoflood information can substantially improve flood frequency estimates if appropriate statistical procedures are properly applied. However, the Federal guidelines for flood frequency analysis, set forth in Bulletin 17B, rely on an inefficient "weighting" procedure that fails to take advantage of historical and paleoflood information. This has led researchers to propose several more efficient alternatives including the Expected Moments Algorithm (EMA), which is attractive because it retains Bulletin 17B's statistical structure (method of moments with the Log Pearson Type 3 distribution) and thus can be easily integrated into flood analyses employing the rest of the Bulletin 17B approach. The practical utility of EMA, however, has been limited because no closed-form method has been available for quantifying the uncertainty of EMA-based flood quantile estimates. This paper addresses that concern by providing analytical expressions for the asymptotic variance of EMA flood-quantile estimators and confidence intervals for flood quantile estimates. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the properties of such confidence intervals for sites where a 25- to 100-year streamgage record is augmented by 50 to 150 years of historical information. The experiments show that the confidence intervals, though not exact, should be acceptable for most purposes.

  13. Calibration with confidence: a principled method for panel assessment

    PubMed Central

    MacKay, R. S.; Low, R. J.; Parker, S.

    2017-01-01

    Frequently, a set of objects has to be evaluated by a panel of assessors, but not every object is assessed by every assessor. A problem facing such panels is how to take into account different standards among panel members and varying levels of confidence in their scores. Here, a mathematically based algorithm is developed to calibrate the scores of such assessors, addressing both of these issues. The algorithm is based on the connectivity of the graph of assessors and objects evaluated, incorporating declared confidences as weights on its edges. If the graph is sufficiently well connected, relative standards can be inferred by comparing how assessors rate objects they assess in common, weighted by the levels of confidence of each assessment. By removing these biases, ‘true’ values are inferred for all the objects. Reliability estimates for the resulting values are obtained. The algorithm is tested in two case studies: one by computer simulation and another based on realistic evaluation data. The process is compared to the simple averaging procedure in widespread use, and to Fisher's additive incomplete block analysis. It is anticipated that the algorithm will prove useful in a wide variety of situations such as evaluation of the quality of research submitted to national assessment exercises; appraisal of grant proposals submitted to funding panels; ranking of job applicants; and judgement of performances on degree courses wherein candidates can choose from lists of options. PMID:28386432

  14. Statistical analysis of synaptic transmission: model discrimination and confidence limits.

    PubMed Central

    Stricker, C; Redman, S; Daley, D

    1994-01-01

    Procedures for discriminating between competing statistical models of synaptic transmission, and for providing confidence limits on the parameters of these models, have been developed. These procedures were tested against simulated data and were used to analyze the fluctuations in synaptic currents evoked in hippocampal neurones. All models were fitted to data using the Expectation-Maximization algorithm and a maximum likelihood criterion. Competing models were evaluated using the log-likelihood ratio (Wilks statistic). When the competing models were not nested, Monte Carlo sampling of the model used as the null hypothesis (H0) provided density functions against which H0 and the alternate model (H1) were tested. The statistic for the log-likelihood ratio was determined from the fit of H0 and H1 to these probability densities. This statistic was used to determine the significance level at which H0 could be rejected for the original data. When the competing models were nested, log-likelihood ratios and the chi 2 statistic were used to determine the confidence level for rejection. Once the model that provided the best statistical fit to the data was identified, many estimates for the model parameters were calculated by resampling the original data. Bootstrap techniques were then used to obtain the confidence limits of these parameters. PMID:7948672

  15. Assessing recognition memory using confidence ratings and response times

    PubMed Central

    Kahana, Michael J.

    2016-01-01

    Classification of stimuli into categories (such as ‘old’ and ‘new’ in tests of recognition memory or ‘present’ versus ‘absent’ in signal detection tasks) requires the mapping of internal signals to discrete responses. Introspective judgements about a given choice response are regularly employed in research, legal and clinical settings in an effort to measure the signal that is thought to be the basis of the classification decision. Correlations between introspective judgements and task performance suggest that such ratings often do convey information about internal states that are relevant for a given task, but well-known limitations of introspection call the fidelity of this information into question. We investigated to what extent response times can reveal information usually assessed with explicit confidence ratings. We quantitatively compared response times to confidence ratings in their ability to qualify recognition memory decisions and found convergent results suggesting that much of the information from confidence ratings can be obtained from response times. PMID:27152209

  16. Quantifying uncertainty on sediment loads using bootstrap confidence intervals

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Slaets, Johanna I. F.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Schmitter, Petra; Hilger, Thomas; Cadisch, Georg

    2017-01-01

    Load estimates are more informative than constituent concentrations alone, as they allow quantification of on- and off-site impacts of environmental processes concerning pollutants, nutrients and sediment, such as soil fertility loss, reservoir sedimentation and irrigation channel siltation. While statistical models used to predict constituent concentrations have been developed considerably over the last few years, measures of uncertainty on constituent loads are rarely reported. Loads are the product of two predictions, constituent concentration and discharge, integrated over a time period, which does not make it straightforward to produce a standard error or a confidence interval. In this paper, a linear mixed model is used to estimate sediment concentrations. A bootstrap method is then developed that accounts for the uncertainty in the concentration and discharge predictions, allowing temporal correlation in the constituent data, and can be used when data transformations are required. The method was tested for a small watershed in Northwest Vietnam for the period 2010-2011. The results showed that confidence intervals were asymmetric, with the highest uncertainty in the upper limit, and that a load of 6262 Mg year-1 had a 95 % confidence interval of (4331, 12 267) in 2010 and a load of 5543 Mg an interval of (3593, 8975) in 2011. Additionally, the approach demonstrated that direct estimates from the data were biased downwards compared to bootstrap median estimates. These results imply that constituent loads predicted from regression-type water quality models could frequently be underestimating sediment yields and their environmental impact.

  17. Decision making and action implementation: evidence for an early visually triggered motor activation specific to potential actions.

    PubMed

    Tandonnet, Christophe; Garry, Michael I; Summers, Jeffery J

    2013-07-01

    To make a decision may rely on accumulating evidence in favor of one alternative until a threshold is reached. Sequential-sampling models differ by the way of accumulating evidence and the link with action implementation. Here, we tested a model's prediction of an early action implementation specific to potential actions. We assessed the dynamics of action implementation in go/no-go and between-hand choice tasks by transcranial magnetic stimulation of the motor cortex (single- or paired-pulse TMS; 3-ms interstimulus interval). Prior to implementation of the selected action, the amplitude of the motor evoked potential first increased whatever the visual stimulus but only for the hand potentially involved in the to-be-produced action. These findings suggest that visual stimuli can trigger an early motor activation specific to potential actions, consistent with race-like models with continuous transmission between decision making and action implementation.

  18. Lunar Balance and Locomotion

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Paloski, William H.

    2008-01-01

    Balance control and locomotor patterns were altered in Apollo crewmembers on the lunar surface, owing, presumably, to a combination of sensory-motor adaptation during transit and lunar surface operations, decreased environmental affordances associated with the reduced gravity, and restricted joint mobility as well as altered center-of-gravity caused by the EVA pressure suits. Dr. Paloski will discuss these factors, as well as the potential human and mission impacts of falls and malcoordination during planned lunar sortie and outpost missions. Learning objectives: What are the potential impacts of postural instabilities on the lunar surface? CME question: What factors affect balance control and gait stability on the moon? Answer: Sensory-motor adaptation to the lunar environment, reduced mechanical and visual affordances, and altered biomechanics caused by the EVA suit.

  19. Wind tunnel balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Horne, Warren L. (Inventor); Kunz, Nans (Inventor); Luna, Phillip M. (Inventor); Roberts, Andrew C. (Inventor); Smith, Kenneth M. (Inventor); Smith, Ronald C. (Inventor)

    1989-01-01

    A flow-through balance is provided which includes a non-metric portion and a metric portion which form a fluid-conducting passage in fluid communication with an internal bore in the sting. The non-metric and metric portions of the balance are integrally connected together by a plurality of flexure beams such that the non-metric portion, the metric portion and the flexure beams form a one-piece construction which eliminates mechanical hysteresis between the non-metric and the metric portion. The system includes structures for preventing the effects of temperature, pressure and pressurized fluid from producing asymmetric loads on the flexure beams. A temperature sensor and a pressure sensor are located within the fluid-conducting passage of the balance. The system includes a longitudinal bellows member connected at two ends to one of the non-metric portion and the metric portion and at an intermediate portion thereof to the other of (1) and (2). A plurality of strain gages are mounted on the flexure beams to measure strain forces on the flexure beams. The flexure beams are disposed so as to enable symmetric forces on the flexure beams to cancel out so that only asymmetric forces are measured as deviations by the strain gages.

  20. Seismic offset balancing

    SciTech Connect

    Ross, C.P.; Beale, P.L.

    1994-01-01

    The ability to successfully predict lithology and fluid content from reflection seismic records using AVO techniques is contingent upon accurate pre-analysis conditioning of the seismic data. However, all too often, residual amplitude effects remain after the many offset-dependent processing steps are completed. Residual amplitude effects often represent a significant error when compared to the amplitude variation with offset (AVO) response that the authors are attempting to quantify. They propose a model-based, offset-dependent amplitude balancing method that attempts to correct for these residuals and other errors due to sub-optimal processing. Seismic offset balancing attempts to quantify the relationship between the offset response of back-ground seismic reflections and corresponding theoretical predictions for average lithologic interfaces thought to cause these background reflections. It is assumed that any deviation from the theoretical response is a result of residual processing phenomenon and/or suboptimal processing, and a simple offset-dependent scaling function is designed to correct for these differences. This function can then be applied to seismic data over both prospective and nonprospective zones within an area where the theoretical values are appropriate and the seismic characteristics are consistent. A conservative application of the above procedure results in an AVO response over both gas sands and wet sands that is much closer to theoretically expected values. A case history from the Gulf of Mexico Flexure Trend is presented as an example to demonstrate the offset balancing technique.

  1. Gait and balance disorders.

    PubMed

    Masdeu, Joseph C

    2016-01-01

    This chapter focuses on one of the most common types of neurologic disorders: altered walking. Walking impairment often reflects disease of the neurologic structures mediating gait, balance or, most often, both. These structures are distributed along the neuraxis. For this reason, this chapter is introduced by a brief description of the neurobiologic underpinning of walking, stressing information that is critical for imaging, namely, the anatomic representation of gait and balance mechanisms. This background is essential not only in order to direct the relevant imaging tools to the regions more likely to be affected but also to interpret correctly imaging findings that may not be related to the walking deficit object of clinical study. The chapter closes with a discussion on how to image some of the most frequent etiologies causing gait or balance impairment. However, it focuses on syndromes not already discussed in other chapters of this volume, such as Parkinson's disease and other movement disorders, already discussed in Chapter 48, or cerebellar ataxia, in Chapter 23, in the previous volume. As regards vascular disease, the spastic hemiplegia most characteristic of brain disease needs little discussion, while the less well-understood effects of microvascular disease are extensively reviewed here, together with the imaging approach.

  2. Simple Cell Balance Circuit

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Johnson, Steven D.; Byers, Jerry W.; Martin, James A.

    2012-01-01

    A method has been developed for continuous cell voltage balancing for rechargeable batteries (e.g. lithium ion batteries). A resistor divider chain is provided that generates a set of voltages representing the ideal cell voltage (the voltage of each cell should be as if the cells were perfectly balanced). An operational amplifier circuit with an added current buffer stage generates the ideal voltage with a very high degree of accuracy, using the concept of negative feedback. The ideal voltages are each connected to the corresponding cell through a current- limiting resistance. Over time, having the cell connected to the ideal voltage provides a balancing current that moves the cell voltage very close to that ideal level. In effect, it adjusts the current of each cell during charging, discharging, and standby periods to force the cell voltages to be equal to the ideal voltages generated by the resistor divider. The device also includes solid-state switches that disconnect the circuit from the battery so that it will not discharge the battery during storage. This solution requires relatively few parts and is, therefore, of lower cost and of increased reliability due to the fewer failure modes. Additionally, this design uses very little power. A preliminary model predicts a power usage of 0.18 W for an 8-cell battery. This approach is applicable to a wide range of battery capacities and voltages.

  3. Basic Confidence Predictors of Career Decision-Making Self-Efficacy

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Paulsen, Alisa M.; Betz, Nancy E.

    2004-01-01

    The extent to which Basic Confidence Scales predicted career decision-making self-efficacy was studied in a sample of 627 undergraduate students. Six confidence variables accounted for 49% of the variance in career decision-making self-efficacy. Leadership confidence was the most important, but confidence in science, mathematics, writing, using…

  4. On Some Confidence Intervals for Estimating the Mean of a Skewed Population

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Shi, W.; Kibria, B. M. Golam

    2007-01-01

    A number of methods are available in the literature to measure confidence intervals. Here, confidence intervals for estimating the population mean of a skewed distribution are considered. This note proposes two alternative confidence intervals, namely, Median t and Mad t, which are simple adjustments to the Student's t confidence interval. In…

  5. Strong Confidence Intervals: A Compromise between the Gaussian and the Slash.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1983-11-01

    In this report we define strong confidence interval procedures and discuss their properties. Strong confidence means that the reported confidence level is achieved even conditioned on configurations. Furthermore this is true for both the Gaussian and the slash sampling situations. We will show how such a procedure can be obtained and compare its performance to some popular non-parametric confidence intervals. (Author)

  6. Improving Balance with Tai Chi

    MedlinePlus

    ... 8428 · INFO @ VESTIBULAR . ORG · WWW . VESTIBULAR . ORG Improving Balance with Tai Chi By the Vestibular Disorders Association ... symptoms commonly experi- enced with vestibular (inner ear balance) disorders can cause overwhelming fatigue and anxiety. Many ...

  7. Specs add confidence in use of wet welding. [Underwater welding

    SciTech Connect

    Not Available

    1984-02-01

    Underwater wet welding can now be utilized with the same confidence as dry welding, provided certain guidelines are followed. A new electrode is discussed that has been delivering exceptionally high quality welds by a diving firm in Houston. With the issuance of the American Welding Society's specifications (ANS/LAWS D3.6-83) much of the confusion surrounding underwater welding should be eliminated. The new specifications establish the levels of quality for underwater welding and gives everyone in the business a common language.

  8. A recipe for the construction of confidence limits

    SciTech Connect

    Iain A Bertram et al.

    2000-04-12

    In this note, the authors present the recipe recommended by the Search Limits Committee for the construction of confidence intervals for the use of D0 collaboration. In another note, currently in preparation, they present the rationale for this recipe, a critique of the current literature on this topic, and several examples of the use of the method. This note is intended to fill the need of the collaboration to have a reference available until the more complete note is finished. Section 2 introduces the notation used in this note, and Section 3 contains the suggested recipe.

  9. Role of Seismic Calibration as a Confidence-Building Measure

    SciTech Connect

    Casey, L A; Zucca, J JW S; Phillips, W S

    2000-07-20

    Confidence-Building Measures (CBMs) under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) address the political goal of alleviating compliance concerns raised by chemical explosions and the technical goal of calibrating the International Monitoring System (IMS; ref. Article IV, E, and Part 111 of the Protocol to the treaty). The term ''calibration'' only appears in the treaty associated with CBMs and On-Site Inspection and has different meanings in each case. This difference can be illustrated through the use of a simple, conceptual equation:

  10. Confidence interval construction for proportion ratio in paired studies based on hybrid method.

    PubMed

    Tang, Man-Lai; Li, Hui-Qiong; Tang, Nian-Sheng

    2012-08-01

    In this article, we consider confidence interval construction for proportion ratio in paired samples. Previous studies usually reported that score-based confidence intervals consistently outperformed other asymptotic confidence intervals for correlated proportion difference and ratio. However, score-based confidence intervals may not possess closed-form solutions and iterative procedures are therefore required. This article investigates the problem of confidence interval construction for ratio of two correlated proportions based on a hybrid method. Briefly, the hybrid method simply combines two separate confidence intervals for two individual proportions to produce a hybrid confidence interval for the ratio of the two individual proportions in paired studies. Most importantly, confidence intervals based on this hybrid method possess explicit solutions. Our simulation studies indicate that hybrid Wilson score confidence intervals based on Fieller's theorem performs well. The proposed confidence intervals will be illustrated with three real examples.

  11. More on Chemical Reaction Balancing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Swinehart, D. F.

    1985-01-01

    A previous article stated that only the matrix method was powerful enough to balance a particular chemical equation. Shows how this equation can be balanced without using the matrix method. The approach taken involves writing partial mathematical reactions and redox half-reactions, and combining them to yield the final balanced reaction. (JN)

  12. Inter-Korean military confidence building after 2003.

    SciTech Connect

    Tae-woo, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Littlefield, Adriane C.; Vannoni, Michael Geoffrey; Sang-beom, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Koelm, Jennifer Gay; Olsen, John Norman; Myong-jin, Kim (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea); Sung-tack, Shin (Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, Seoul, Republic of Korea)

    2003-08-01

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula remain high despite a long-term strategy by South Korea to increase inter-Korean exchanges in economics, culture, sports, and other topics. This is because the process of reconciliation has rarely extended to military and security topics and those initiatives that were negotiated have been ineffective. Bilateral interactions must include actions to reduce threats and improve confidence associated with conventional military forces (land, sea, and air) as well as nuclear, chemical, and biological activities that are applicable to developing and producing weapons of mass destruction (WMD). The purpose of this project is to develop concepts for inter-Korean confidence building measures (CBMs) for military and WMD topics that South Korea could propose to the North when conditions are right. This report describes the historical and policy context for developing security-related CBMs and presents an array of bilateral options for conventional military and WMD topics within a consistent framework. The conceptual CBMs address two scenarios: (1) improved relations where construction of a peace regime becomes a full agenda item in inter-Korean dialogue, and (2) continued tense inter-Korean relations. Some measures could be proposed in the short term under current conditions, others might be implemented in a series of steps, while some require a higher level of cooperation than currently exists. To support decision making by political leaders, this research focuses on strategies and policy options and does not include technical details.

  13. Covariate-adjusted confidence interval for the intraclass correlation coefficient.

    PubMed

    Shoukri, Mohamed M; Donner, Allan; El-Dali, Abdelmoneim

    2013-09-01

    A crucial step in designing a new study is to estimate the required sample size. For a design involving cluster sampling, the appropriate sample size depends on the so-called design effect, which is a function of the average cluster size and the intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC). It is well-known that under the framework of hierarchical and generalized linear models, a reduction in residual error may be achieved by including risk factors as covariates. In this paper we show that the covariate design, indicating whether the covariates are measured at the cluster level or at the within-cluster subject level affects the estimation of the ICC, and hence the design effect. Therefore, the distinction between these two types of covariates should be made at the design stage. In this paper we use the nested-bootstrap method to assess the accuracy of the estimated ICC for continuous and binary response variables under different covariate structures. The codes of two SAS macros are made available by the authors for interested readers to facilitate the construction of confidence intervals for the ICC. Moreover, using Monte Carlo simulations we evaluate the relative efficiency of the estimators and evaluate the accuracy of the coverage probabilities of a 95% confidence interval on the population ICC. The methodology is illustrated using a published data set of blood pressure measurements taken on family members.

  14. Voter model with arbitrary degree dependence: clout, confidence and irreversibility

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Fotouhi, Babak; Rabbat, Michael G.

    2014-03-01

    The voter model is widely used to model opinion dynamics in society. In this paper, we propose three modifications to incorporate heterogeneity into the model. We address the corresponding oversimplifications of the conventional voter model which are unrealistic. We first consider the voter model with popularity bias. The influence of each node on its neighbors depends on its degree. We find the consensus probabilities and expected consensus times for each of the states. We also find the fixation probability, which is the probability that a single node whose state differs from every other node imposes its state on the entire system. In addition, we find the expected fixation time. Then two other extensions to the model are proposed and the motivations behind them are discussed. The first one is confidence, where in addition to the states of neighbors, nodes take their own state into account at each update. We repeat the calculations for the augmented model and investigate the effects of adding confidence to the model. The second proposed extension is irreversibility, where one of the states is given the property that once nodes adopt it, they cannot switch back. This is motivated by applications where, agents take an irreversible action such as seeing a movie, purchasing a music album online, or buying a new product. The dynamics of densities, fixation times and consensus times are obtained.

  15. Categorical evidence, confidence, and urgency during probabilistic categorization

    PubMed Central

    Braunlich, Kurt; Seger, Carol A.

    2015-01-01

    We used a temporally-extended categorization task to investigate the neural substrates underlying our ability to integrate information over time and across multiple stimulus features. Using model-based fMRI, we tracked the temporal evolution of two important variables as participants deliberated about impending choices: 1) categorical evidence, and 2) confidence (the total amount of evidence provided by the stimuli, irrespective of the particular category favored). Importantly, in each model, we also included a covariate which allowed us to differentiate signals related to information accumulation from other, evidence-independent functions that increased monotonically with time (such as urgency or cognitive load). We found that somatomotor regions tracked the temporal evolution of categorical evidence, while regions in both medial and lateral prefrontal cortex, inferior parietal cortex, and the striatum tracked decision confidence. As both theory and experimental work suggest that patterns of activity thought to be related to information-accumulation may reflect, in whole or in part, an interaction between sensory evidence and urgency, we additionally investigated whether urgency might modulate the slopes of the two evidence-dependent functions. We found that the slopes of both functions were likely modulated by urgency such that the difference between the high and low evidence states increased as the response deadline loomed. PMID:26564532

  16. Nursing students' confidence in medication calculations predicts math exam performance.

    PubMed

    Andrew, Sharon; Salamonson, Yenna; Halcomb, Elizabeth J

    2009-02-01

    The aim of this study was to examine the psychometric properties, including predictive validity, of the newly-developed nursing self-efficacy for mathematics (NSE-Math). The NSE-Math is a 12 item scale that comprises items related to mathematic and arithmetic concepts underpinning medication calculations. The NSE-Math instrument was administered to second year Bachelor of Nursing students enrolled in a nursing practice subject. Students' academic results for a compulsory medication calculation examination for this subject were collected. One-hundred and twelve students (73%) completed both the NSE-Math instrument and the drug calculation assessment task. The NSE-Math demonstrated two factors 'Confidence in application of mathematic concepts to nursing practice' and 'Confidence in arithmetic concepts' with 63.5% of variance explained. Cronbach alpha for the scale was 0.90. The NSE-Math demonstrated predictive validity with the medication calculation examination results (p=0.009). Psychometric testing suggests the NSE-Math is a valid measure of mathematics self-efficacy of second year nursing students.

  17. Confidence set inference with a prior quadratic bound

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Backus, George E.

    1989-01-01

    In the uniqueness part of a geophysical inverse problem, the observer wants to predict all likely values of P unknown numerical properties z=(z sub 1,...,z sub p) of the earth from measurement of D other numerical properties y (sup 0) = (y (sub 1) (sup 0), ..., y (sub D (sup 0)), using full or partial knowledge of the statistical distribution of the random errors in y (sup 0). The data space Y containing y(sup 0) is D-dimensional, so when the model space X is infinite-dimensional the linear uniqueness problem usually is insoluble without prior information about the correct earth model x. If that information is a quadratic bound on x, Bayesian inference (BI) and stochastic inversion (SI) inject spurious structure into x, implied by neither the data nor the quadratic bound. Confidence set inference (CSI) provides an alternative inversion technique free of this objection. Confidence set inference is illustrated in the problem of estimating the geomagnetic field B at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) from components of B measured on or above the earth's surface.

  18. Lesson "Balance in Nature

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Chapanova, V.

    2012-04-01

    Lesson "Balance in Nature" This simulation game-lesson (Balance in Nature) gives an opportunity for the students to show creativity, work independently, and to create models and ideas. It creates future-oriented thought connected to their experience, allowing them to propose solutions for global problems and personal responsibility for their activities. The class is divided in two teams. Each team chooses questions. 1. Question: Pollution in the environment. 2. Question: Care for nature and climate. The teams work on the chosen tasks. They make drafts, notes and formulate their solutions on small pieces of paper, explaining the impact on nature and society. They express their points of view using many different opinions. This generates alternative thoughts and results in creative solutions. With the new knowledge and positive behaviour defined, everybody realizes that they can do something positive towards nature and climate problems and the importance of individuals for solving global problems is evident. Our main goal is to recover the ecological balance, and everybody explains his or her own well-grounded opinions. In this work process the students obtain knowledge, skills and more responsible behaviour. This process, based on his or her own experience, dialogue and teamwork, helps the participant's self-development. Making the model "human↔ nature" expresses how human activities impact the natural Earth and how these impacts in turn affect society. Taking personal responsibility, we can reduce global warming and help the Earth. By helping nature we help ourselves. Teacher: Veselina Boycheva-Chapanova " Saint Patriarch Evtimii" Scholl Str. "Ivan Vazov"-19 Plovdiv Bulgaria

  19. Micromechanical Oscillating Mass Balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Altemir, David A. (Inventor)

    1997-01-01

    A micromechanical oscillating mass balance and method adapted for measuring minute quantities of material deposited at a selected location, such as during a vapor deposition process. The invention comprises a vibratory composite beam which includes a dielectric layer sandwiched between two conductive layers. The beam is positioned in a magnetic field. An alternating current passes through one conductive layers, the beam oscillates, inducing an output current in the second conductive layer, which is analyzed to determine the resonant frequency of the beam. As material is deposited on the beam, the mass of the beam increases and the resonant frequency of the beam shifts, and the mass added is determined.

  20. Resource Balancing Control Allocation

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Frost, Susan A.; Bodson, Marc

    2010-01-01

    Next generation aircraft with a large number of actuators will require advanced control allocation methods to compute the actuator commands needed to follow desired trajectories while respecting system constraints. Previously, algorithms were proposed to minimize the l1 or l2 norms of the tracking error and of the control effort. The paper discusses the alternative choice of using the l1 norm for minimization of the tracking error and a normalized l(infinity) norm, or sup norm, for minimization of the control effort. The algorithm computes the norm of the actuator deflections scaled by the actuator limits. Minimization of the control effort then translates into the minimization of the maximum actuator deflection as a percentage of its range of motion. The paper shows how the problem can be solved effectively by converting it into a linear program and solving it using a simplex algorithm. Properties of the algorithm are investigated through examples. In particular, the min-max criterion results in a type of resource balancing, where the resources are the control surfaces and the algorithm balances these resources to achieve the desired command. A study of the sensitivity of the algorithms to the data is presented, which shows that the normalized l(infinity) algorithm has the lowest sensitivity, although high sensitivities are observed whenever the limits of performance are reached.

  1. Balance ability and athletic performance.

    PubMed

    Hrysomallis, Con

    2011-03-01

    The relationship between balance ability and sport injury risk has been established in many cases, but the relationship between balance ability and athletic performance is less clear. This review compares the balance ability of athletes from different sports, determines if there is a difference in balance ability of athletes at different levels of competition within the same sport, determines the relationship of balance ability with performance measures and examines the influence of balance training on sport performance or motor skills. Based on the available data from cross-sectional studies, gymnasts tended to have the best balance ability, followed by soccer players, swimmers, active control subjects and then basketball players. Surprisingly, no studies were found that compared the balance ability of rifle shooters with other athletes. There were some sports, such as rifle shooting, soccer and golf, where elite athletes were found to have superior balance ability compared with their less proficient counterparts, but this was not found to be the case for alpine skiing, surfing and judo. Balance ability was shown to be significantly related to rifle shooting accuracy, archery shooting accuracy, ice hockey maximum skating speed and simulated luge start speed, but not for baseball pitching accuracy or snowboarding ranking points. Prospective studies have shown that the addition of a balance training component to the activities of recreationally active subjects or physical education students has resulted in improvements in vertical jump, agility, shuttle run and downhill slalom skiing. A proposed mechanism for the enhancement in motor skills from balance training is an increase in the rate of force development. There are limited data on the influence of balance training on motor skills of elite athletes. When the effectiveness of balance training was compared with resistance training, it was found that resistance training produced superior performance results for

  2. A common mechanism underlies changes of mind about decisions and confidence.

    PubMed

    van den Berg, Ronald; Anandalingam, Kavitha; Zylberberg, Ariel; Kiani, Roozbeh; Shadlen, Michael N; Wolpert, Daniel M

    2016-02-01

    Decisions are accompanied by a degree of confidence that a selected option is correct. A sequential sampling framework explains the speed and accuracy of decisions and extends naturally to the confidence that the decision rendered is likely to be correct. However, discrepancies between confidence and accuracy suggest that confidence might be supported by mechanisms dissociated from the decision process. Here we show that this discrepancy can arise naturally because of simple processing delays. When participants were asked to report choice and confidence simultaneously, their confidence, reaction time and a perceptual decision about motion were explained by bounded evidence accumulation. However, we also observed revisions of the initial choice and/or confidence. These changes of mind were explained by a continuation of the mechanism that led to the initial choice. Our findings extend the sequential sampling framework to vacillation about confidence and invites caution in interpreting dissociations between confidence and accuracy.

  3. Motivation, Leadership, Empowerment and Confidence: Their Relation with Nurses’ Burnout

    PubMed Central

    Papathanasiou, Ioanna V.; Fradelos, Evangelos C.; Kleisiaris, Christos F.; Tsaras, Konstantinos; Kalota, Malamati A.; Kourkouta, Lambrini

    2014-01-01

    Introduction: Burnout is usually defined as a state of physical, emotional and mental exhaustion that results from long-term involvement in work situations that are emotionally demanding. A great deal of researches has been devoted to the understanding of factors contributing to burnout and the negative effects that burnout has in the cost and the quality of the provided healthcare. Discussion: Many researchers believe that in difficult and stressful working conditions the work environment should be changed in order to reduce burnout levels successfully. Indeed, recent studies have highlighted the role of human resources management in burnout. It has been widely recognized that human resource management policies should be at the core of any sustainable solution that aims to increase health care systems performance and efficient. Conclusion: Motivation, leadership, empowerment and confidence are very important factors that should be considered in this direction because they are strongly related with burnout levels. PMID:25685089

  4. Determining frequentist confidence limits using a directed parameter space search

    SciTech Connect

    Daniel, Scott F.; Connolly, Andrew J.; Schneider, Jeff

    2014-10-10

    We consider the problem of inferring constraints on a high-dimensional parameter space with a computationally expensive likelihood function. We propose a machine learning algorithm that maps out the Frequentist confidence limit on parameter space by intelligently targeting likelihood evaluations so as to quickly and accurately characterize the likelihood surface in both low- and high-likelihood regions. We compare our algorithm to Bayesian credible limits derived by the well-tested Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm using both multi-modal toy likelihood functions and the seven yr Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe cosmic microwave background likelihood function. We find that our algorithm correctly identifies the location, general size, and general shape of high-likelihood regions in parameter space while being more robust against multi-modality than MCMC.

  5. Leveraging waveform complexity for confident detection of gravitational waves

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Kanner, Jonah B.; Littenberg, Tyson B.; Cornish, Neil; Millhouse, Meg; Xhakaj, Enia; Salemi, Francesco; Drago, Marco; Vedovato, Gabriele; Klimenko, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    The recent completion of Advanced LIGO suggests that gravitational waves may soon be directly observed. Past searches for gravitational-wave transients have been impacted by transient noise artifacts, known as glitches, introduced into LIGO data due to instrumental and environmental effects. In this work, we explore how waveform complexity, instead of signal-to-noise ratio, can be used to rank event candidates and distinguish short duration astrophysical signals from glitches. We test this framework using a new hierarchical pipeline that directly compares the Bayesian evidence of explicit signal and glitch models. The hierarchical pipeline is shown to perform well and, in particular, to allow high-confidence detections of a range of waveforms at a realistic signal-to-noise ratio with a two-detector network.

  6. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects.

    PubMed

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math.

  7. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes.

    PubMed

    Francisco-Fernández, Mario; Quintela-del-Río, Alejandro

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper.

  8. Metacognition and confidence: comparing math to other academic subjects

    PubMed Central

    Erickson, Shanna; Heit, Evan

    2015-01-01

    Two studies addressed student metacognition in math, measuring confidence accuracy about math performance. Underconfidence would be expected in light of pervasive math anxiety. However, one might alternatively expect overconfidence based on previous results showing overconfidence in other subject domains. Metacognitive judgments and performance were assessed for biology, literature, and mathematics tests. In Study 1, high school students took three different tests and provided estimates of their performance both before and after taking each test. In Study 2, undergraduates similarly took three shortened SAT II Subject Tests. Students were overconfident in predicting math performance, indeed showing greater overconfidence compared to other academic subjects. It appears that both overconfidence and anxiety can adversely affect metacognitive ability and can lead to math avoidance. The results have implications for educational practice and other environments that require extensive use of math. PMID:26082742

  9. Gaining Confidence in Navigating Rosetta at Mars Swing-By

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Crammn, Ruediger; Budnik, Frank

    2007-01-01

    The Mars swing-by in the early morning of the 25th of February 2007 was one of the most critical events the Rosetta mission has experienced so far on its way to the comet Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The closest approach took place at a distance of only 250 km from the planet s surface. Missing the optimal target would have translated into considerable fuel cost. In order to achieve confidence in operating through this highly critical mission phase, a navigation analysis exercise was carried out beforehand. This paper describes the purpose and the chosen approach for this preparatory Flight Dynamics activity. It presents and discusses results of the analysis. Emphasis is put on the question of what is needed to simulate a valuable data set representative for operations. The results of the navigation analysis are compared with real data obtained during swing-by operations.

  10. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-08-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date.

  11. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    DOE PAGES

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time,more » it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.« less

  12. Confidence-based ensemble for GBM brain tumor segmentation

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Huo, Jing; van Rikxoort, Eva M.; Okada, Kazunori; Kim, Hyun J.; Pope, Whitney; Goldin, Jonathan; Brown, Matthew

    2011-03-01

    It is a challenging task to automatically segment glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) brain tumors on T1w post-contrast isotropic MR images. A semi-automated system using fuzzy connectedness has recently been developed for computing the tumor volume that reduces the cost of manual annotation. In this study, we propose a an ensemble method that combines multiple segmentation results into a final ensemble one. The method is evaluated on a dataset of 20 cases from a multi-center pharmaceutical drug trial and compared to the fuzzy connectedness method. Three individual methods were used in the framework: fuzzy connectedness, GrowCut, and voxel classification. The combination method is a confidence map averaging (CMA) method. The CMA method shows an improved ROC curve compared to the fuzzy connectedness method (p < 0.001). The CMA ensemble result is more robust compared to the three individual methods.

  13. Neutron multiplicity counting: Confidence intervals for reconstruction parameters

    SciTech Connect

    Verbeke, Jerome M.

    2016-03-09

    From nuclear materials accountability to homeland security, the need for improved nuclear material detection, assay, and authentication has grown over the past decades. Starting in the 1940s, neutron multiplicity counting techniques have enabled quantitative evaluation of masses and multiplications of fissile materials. In this paper, we propose a new method to compute uncertainties on these parameters using a model-based sequential Bayesian processor, resulting in credible regions in the fissile material mass and multiplication space. These uncertainties will enable us to evaluate quantitatively proposed improvements to the theoretical fission chain model. Additionally, because the processor can calculate uncertainties in real time, it is a useful tool in applications such as portal monitoring: monitoring can stop as soon as a preset confidence of non-threat is reached.

  14. Confidence limits for Neyman type A-distributed events.

    PubMed

    Morand, Josselin; Deperas-Standylo, Joanna; Urbanik, Witold; Moss, Raymond; Hachem, Sabet; Sauerwein, Wolfgang; Wojcik, Andrzej

    2008-01-01

    The Neyman type A distribution, a generalised, 'contagious' Poisson distribution, finds application in a number of disciplines such as biology, physics and economy. In radiation biology, it best describes the distribution of chromosomal aberrations in cells that were exposed to neutrons, alpha radiations or heavy ions. Intriguingly, no method has been developed for the calculation of confidence limits (CLs) of Neyman type A-distributed events. Here, an algorithm to calculate the 95% CL of Neyman type A-distributed events is presented. Although it has been developed in response to the requirements of radiation biology, it can find application in other fields of research. The algorithm has been implemented in a PC-based computer program that can be downloaded, free of charge, from www.pu.kielce.pl/ibiol/neta.

  15. Probability distributions and confidence intervals for simulated power law noise.

    PubMed

    Ashby, Neil

    2015-01-01

    A method for simulating power law noise in clocks and oscillators is presented based on modification of the spectrum of white phase noise, then Fourier transforming to the time domain. Symmetric real matrices are introduced whose traces-the sums of their eigenvalues-are equal to the Allan variances, in overlapping or non-overlapping forms, as well as for the corresponding forms of the modified Allan variance. We show that the standard expressions for spectral densities, and their relations to Allan variance, are obtained with this method. The matrix eigenvalues determine probability distributions for observing a variance at an arbitrary value of the sampling interval τ, and hence for estimating confidence in the measurements. Examples are presented for the common power-law noises. Extension to other variances such as the Hadamard variance, and variances with dead time, are discussed.

  16. Establishing confidence in complex physics codes: Art or science?

    SciTech Connect

    Trucano, T.

    1997-12-31

    The ALEGRA shock wave physics code, currently under development at Sandia National Laboratories and partially supported by the US Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI), is generic to a certain class of physics codes: large, multi-application, intended to support a broad user community on the latest generation of massively parallel supercomputer, and in a continual state of formal development. To say that the author has ``confidence`` in the results of ALEGRA is to say something different than that he believes that ALEGRA is ``predictive.`` It is the purpose of this talk to illustrate the distinction between these two concepts. The author elects to perform this task in a somewhat historical manner. He will summarize certain older approaches to code validation. He views these methods as aiming to establish the predictive behavior of the code. These methods are distinguished by their emphasis on local information. He will conclude that these approaches are more art than science.

  17. The WEIZMASS spectral library for high-confidence metabolite identification

    PubMed Central

    Shahaf, Nir; Rogachev, Ilana; Heinig, Uwe; Meir, Sagit; Malitsky, Sergey; Battat, Maor; Wyner, Hilary; Zheng, Shuning; Wehrens, Ron; Aharoni, Asaph

    2016-01-01

    Annotation of metabolites is an essential, yet problematic, aspect of mass spectrometry (MS)-based metabolomics assays. The current repertoire of definitive annotations of metabolite spectra in public MS databases is limited and suffers from lack of chemical and taxonomic diversity. Furthermore, the heterogeneity of the data prevents the development of universally applicable metabolite annotation tools. Here we present a combined experimental and computational platform to advance this key issue in metabolomics. WEIZMASS is a unique reference metabolite spectral library developed from high-resolution MS data acquired from a structurally diverse set of 3,540 plant metabolites. We also present MatchWeiz, a multi-module strategy using a probabilistic approach to match library and experimental data. This strategy allows efficient and high-confidence identification of dozens of metabolites in model and exotic plants, including metabolites not previously reported in plants or found in few plant species to date. PMID:27571918

  18. Comparing Simultaneous and Pointwise Confidence Intervals for Hydrological Processes

    PubMed Central

    2016-01-01

    Distribution function estimation of the random variable of river flow is an important problem in hydrology. This issue is directly related to quantile estimation, and consequently to return level prediction. The estimation process can be complemented with the construction of confidence intervals (CIs) to perform a probabilistic assessment of the different variables and/or estimated functions. In this work, several methods for constructing CIs using bootstrap techniques, and parametric and nonparametric procedures in the estimation process are studied and compared. In the case that the target is the joint estimation of a vector of values, some new corrections to obtain joint coverage probabilities closer to the corresponding nominal values are also presented. A comprehensive simulation study compares the different approaches, and the application of the different procedures to real data sets from four rivers in the United States and one in Spain complete the paper. PMID:26828651

  19. Unconscious information changes decision accuracy but not confidence.

    PubMed

    Vlassova, Alexandra; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2014-11-11

    The controversial idea that information can be processed and evaluated unconsciously to change behavior has had a particularly impactful history. Here, we extend a simple model of conscious decision-making to explain both conscious and unconscious accumulation of decisional evidence. Using a novel dichoptic suppression paradigm to titrate conscious and unconscious evidence, we show that unconscious information can be accumulated over time and integrated with conscious elements presented either before or after to boost or diminish decision accuracy. The unconscious information could only be used when some conscious decision-relevant information was also present. These data are fit well by a simple diffusion model in which the rate and variability of evidence accumulation is reduced but not eliminated by the removal of conscious awareness. Surprisingly, the unconscious boost in accuracy was not accompanied by corresponding increases in confidence, suggesting that we have poor metacognition for unconscious decisional evidence.

  20. Measuring Intuition: Nonconscious Emotional Information Boosts Decision Accuracy and Confidence.

    PubMed

    Lufityanto, Galang; Donkin, Chris; Pearson, Joel

    2016-05-01

    The long-held popular notion of intuition has garnered much attention both academically and popularly. Although most people agree that there is such a phenomenon as intuition, involving emotionally charged, rapid, unconscious processes, little compelling evidence supports this notion. Here, we introduce a technique in which subliminal emotional information is presented to subjects while they make fully conscious sensory decisions. Our behavioral and physiological data, along with evidence-accumulator models, show that nonconscious emotional information can boost accuracy and confidence in a concurrent emotion-free decision task, while also speeding up response times. Moreover, these effects were contingent on the specific predictive arrangement of the nonconscious emotional valence and motion direction in the decisional stimulus. A model that simultaneously accumulates evidence from both physiological skin conductance and conscious decisional information provides an accurate description of the data. These findings support the notion that nonconscious emotions can bias concurrent nonemotional behavior-a process of intuition.

  1. The mechanical career of Councillor Orffyreus, confidence man

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Jenkins, Alejandro

    2013-06-01

    In the early 18th century, J. E. E. Bessler, known as Orffyreus, constructed several wheels that he claimed could keep turning forever, powered only by gravity. He never revealed the details of his invention, but he conducted demonstrations (with the machine's inner workings covered) that persuaded competent observers that he might have discovered the secret of perpetual motion. Among Bessler's defenders were Gottfried Leibniz, Johann Bernoulli, Professor Willem 's Gravesande of Leiden University (who wrote to Isaac Newton on the subject), and Prince Karl, ruler of the German state of Hesse-Kassel. We review Bessler's work, placing it within the context of the intellectual debates of the time about mechanical conservation laws and the (im)possibility of perpetual motion. We also mention Bessler's long career as a confidence man, the details of which were discussed in popular 19th-century German publications but have remained unfamiliar to authors in other languages.

  2. Can We Confidently Study VO2 Kinetics in Young People?

    PubMed Central

    Fawkner, Samantha G.; Armstrong, Neil

    2007-01-01

    The study of VO2 kinetics offers the potential to non-invasively examine the cardiorespiratory and metabolic response to dynamic exercise and limitations to every day physical activity. Its non-invasive nature makes it hugely attractive for use with young people, both healthy and those with disease, and yet the literature, whilst growing with respect to adults, remains confined to a cluster of studies with these special populations. It is most likely that this is partly due to the methodological difficulties involved in studying VO2 kinetics in young people which are not present, or present to a lesser degree, with adults. This article reviews these methodological issues, and explains the main procedures that might be used to overcome them. Key pointsThe VO2 kinetic response to exercise represents the combined efficiency of the cardiovascular, pulmonary and metabolic systems, and an accurate assessment of the response potentially provides a great deal of useful information via non-invasive methodology.An accurate assessment of the VO2 kinetic response is however inherently difficult with children and especially those with reduced exercise tolerance, due primarily to the apparent breath-by-breath noise which masks the true underlying physiological response, and the small amplitudes of the response signal.Despite this, it is possible to assess and quantify the VO2 kinetic response with children if appropriate steps are taken to apply carefully selected methodologies and report response variables with confidence intervals. In this way, both the researcher and the reader can be confident that the data reported is meaningful. PMID:24149413

  3. Thank You, Mrs. Bean: Seeking Balance for Students Who Struggle as Readers.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Vacca, Richard T.

    2001-01-01

    Discusses what it means to struggle as a reader, lacking competence with reading strategies and lacking confidence in oneself to make meaning with texts. Argues that balance can be found in adolescent reading programs by seeking equilibrium between the visible and invisible aspects of instruction in the development and use of reading strategies.…

  4. Confidence and Perceived Competence of Preservice Teachers to Implement Biodiversity Education in Primary Schools—Four comparative case studies from Europe

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Lindemann-Matthies, Petra; Constantinou, Costas; Lehnert, Hans-Joachim; Nagel, Ueli; Raper, George; Kadji-Beltran, Chrysanthi

    2011-11-01

    This multinational research study was carried out between 2004 and 2006 in four teacher education institutions in Cyprus, England, Switzerland, and Germany. With the help of a written questionnaire, the confidence and perceived competence of preservice primary teachers (N = 690) to deliver biodiversity education in school were investigated. Data were triangulated with findings from a previous stage of the overall research project. Study participants' confidence to carry out certain outdoor activities in school increased with the number of similar experiences they had during their own secondary school education, and the more personal classroom experiences they had during their teacher education. A sound knowledge of local wild organisms strongly added to their confidence. However, preservice teachers' perceived competence, and thus motivation to implement biodiversity education later on in school, was related even more strongly to the extent of preparation they had received during their teacher education. The results indicate that teacher education programmes that focus exclusively on filling (biodiversity) knowledge gaps might fail to raise confidence and competence in their students to carry out biodiversity education in school. Programmes that have a higher possibility of attaining effectiveness in biodiversity education seek to strike a balance between background knowledge development, pedagogical content knowledge, and opportunities during teaching practice that leads to experiential gains in enacting meaningful activity sequences and engaging students in holistic educational innovations. Within such programmes, it would be fruitful to further explore the relationship between confidence, perceived competence, and actual teaching performance.

  5. Balancing Family and Career

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Andam, Aba Bentil; Dawson, Silvina Ponce; Horton, K. Renee; Sandow, Barbara

    2005-10-01

    In essentially all countries, responsibilities for child care, cooking, cleaning, and other homemaking tasks fall predominantly on the wife and mother. In addition, the childbearing years come during the period when a physicist must study hard, work long hours on research, and take temporary positions, often abroad. Thus, balancing family and career has long been one of the major barriers to women's participation in science and engineering fields, including physics. While many young women believe that they must choose between having children and having a science career, the fact is that the majority of women physicists in both developing and developed countries have successfully done both. This paper summarizes some ideas and recommendations raised in discussions, especially focused on easing the challenges of having children while in temporary jobs, returning to physics after a career break, the need for "family-friendly" working conditions, and the dual-career problem facing couples where both are scientists.

  6. Energy balance climate models

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    North, G. R.; Cahalan, R. F.; Coakley, J. A., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    An introductory survey of the global energy balance climate models is presented with an emphasis on analytical results. A sequence of increasingly complicated models involving ice cap and radiative feedback processes are solved, and the solutions and parameter sensitivities are studied. The model parameterizations are examined critically in light of many current uncertainties. A simple seasonal model is used to study the effects of changes in orbital elements on the temperature field. A linear stability theorem and a complete nonlinear stability analysis for the models are developed. Analytical solutions are also obtained for the linearized models driven by stochastic forcing elements. In this context the relation between natural fluctuation statistics and climate sensitivity is stressed.

  7. Skin friction balance

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Ping, Tcheng (Inventor); Supplee, Frank H., Jr. (Inventor)

    1989-01-01

    A skin friction balance uses a parallel linkage mechanism to avoid inaccuracies in skin friction measurement attributable to off-center normal forces. The parallel linkage mechanism includes a stationary plate mounted in a cage, and an upper and lower movable plate which are linked to each other and to the stationary plate throught three vertical links. Flexure pivots are provided for pivotally connecting the links and the plates. A sensing element connected to the upper plate moves in response to skin friction, and the lower plate moves in the opposite direction of the upper plate. A force motor maintains a null position of the sensing element by exerting a restoring force in response to a signal generated by a linear variable differential transformer (LVDT).

  8. Energy balance in peridynamics.

    SciTech Connect

    Lehoucq, Richard B.; Silling, Stewart Andrew

    2010-09-01

    The peridynamic model of solid mechanics treats internal forces within a continuum through interactions across finite distances. These forces are determined through a constitutive model that, in the case of an elastic material, permits the strain energy density at a point to depend on the collective deformation of all the material within some finite distance of it. The forces between points are evaluated from the Frechet derivative of this strain energy density with respect to the deformation map. The resulting equation of motion is an integro-differential equation written in terms of these interparticle forces, rather than the traditional stress tensor field. Recent work on peridynamics has elucidated the energy balance in the presence of these long-range forces. We have derived the appropriate analogue of stress power, called absorbed power, that leads to a satisfactory definition of internal energy. This internal energy is additive, allowing us to meaningfully define an internal energy density field in the body. An expression for the local first law of thermodynamics within peridynamics combines this mechanical component, the absorbed power, with heat transport. The global statement of the energy balance over a subregion can be expressed in a form in which the mechanical and thermal terms contain only interactions between the interior of the subregion and the exterior, in a form anticipated by Noll in 1955. The local form of this first law within peridynamics, coupled with the second law as expressed in the Clausius-Duhem inequality, is amenable to the Coleman-Noll procedure for deriving restrictions on the constitutive model for thermomechanical response. Using an idea suggested by Fried in the context of systems of discrete particles, this procedure leads to a dissipation inequality for peridynamics that has a surprising form. It also leads to a thermodynamically consistent way to treat damage within the theory, shedding light on how damage, including the

  9. A comparison of several methods for the confidence intervals of negative binomial proportions

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Thong, Alfred Lim Sheng; Shan, Fam Pei

    2015-12-01

    This study focuses on the comparison of the performances of several approaches in constructing confidence interval of negative binomial proportions (single negative binomial proportion and the difference between two negative binomial proportions). After that, the strengths and weaknesses of the approaches in constructing confidence interval of negative binomial proportions are figured out. Performances of the approaches will be accessed by comparing their coverage probabilities and average lengths of confidence intervals. For the comparison of the performances of the approaches in single negative binomial proportion, Wald confidence interval (WCI-I), Agresti confidence interval (ACI-I), Wilson's Score confidence interval (WSCI-I) and Jeffrey confidence interval (JCI-I) are used. WSCI-I is the better approach for single negative binomial proportion in term of the average length of confidence intervals and average coverage probability. While for the comparison of the performances of the approaches in the difference between two negative binomial proportions, Wald confidence interval (WCI-II), Agresti confidence interval (ACI-II), Newcombe's Score confidence interval (NSCI-II), Jeffrey confidence interval (JCI-II) and Yule confidence interval (YCI-II) are used. Under different situations, a better approach has been discussed and recommended. There will be different approach that performs better for the coverage probability.

  10. A computational framework for the study of confidence in humans and animals

    PubMed Central

    Kepecs, Adam; Mainen, Zachary F.

    2012-01-01

    Confidence judgements, self-assessments about the quality of a subject's knowledge, are considered a central example of metacognition. Prima facie, introspection and self-report appear the only way to access the subjective sense of confidence or uncertainty. Contrary to this notion, overt behavioural measures can be used to study confidence judgements by animals trained in decision-making tasks with perceptual or mnemonic uncertainty. Here, we suggest that a computational approach can clarify the issues involved in interpreting these tasks and provide a much needed springboard for advancing the scientific understanding of confidence. We first review relevant theories of probabilistic inference and decision-making. We then critically discuss behavioural tasks employed to measure confidence in animals and show how quantitative models can help to constrain the computational strategies underlying confidence-reporting behaviours. In our view, post-decision wagering tasks with continuous measures of confidence appear to offer the best available metrics of confidence. Since behavioural reports alone provide a limited window into mechanism, we argue that progress calls for measuring the neural representations and identifying the computations underlying confidence reports. We present a case study using such a computational approach to study the neural correlates of decision confidence in rats. This work shows that confidence assessments may be considered higher order, but can be generated using elementary neural computations that are available to a wide range of species. Finally, we discuss the relationship of confidence judgements to the wider behavioural uses of confidence and uncertainty. PMID:22492750

  11. Is team confidence the key to success? The reciprocal relation between collective efficacy, team outcome confidence, and perceptions of team performance during soccer games.

    PubMed

    Fransen, Katrien; Decroos, Steven; Vanbeselaere, Norbert; Vande Broek, Gert; De Cuyper, Bert; Vanroy, Jari; Boen, Filip

    2015-01-01

    The present manuscript extends previous research on the reciprocal relation between team confidence and perceived team performance in two ways. First, we distinguished between two types of team confidence; process-oriented collective efficacy and outcome-oriented team outcome confidence. Second, we assessed both types not only before and after the game, but for the first time also during half-time, thereby providing deeper insight into their dynamic relation with perceived team performance. Two field studies were conducted, each with 10 male soccer teams (N = 134 in Study 1; N = 125 in Study 2). Our findings provide partial support for the reciprocal relation between players' team confidence (both collective efficacy and team outcome confidence) and players' perceptions of the team's performance. Although both types of players' team confidence before the game were not significantly related to perceived team performance in the first half, players' team confidence during half-time was positively related to perceived team performance in the second half. Additionally, our findings consistently demonstrated a relation between perceived team performance and players' subsequent team confidence. Considering that team confidence is a dynamical process, which can be affected by coaches and players, our findings open new avenues to optimise team performance.

  12. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOEpatents

    Wheat, S.R.

    1997-05-13

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers is disclosed. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated. 13 figs.

  13. Dynamic load balancing of applications

    DOEpatents

    Wheat, Stephen R.

    1997-01-01

    An application-level method for dynamically maintaining global load balance on a parallel computer, particularly on massively parallel MIMD computers. Global load balancing is achieved by overlapping neighborhoods of processors, where each neighborhood performs local load balancing. The method supports a large class of finite element and finite difference based applications and provides an automatic element management system to which applications are easily integrated.

  14. Radar channel balancing with commutation

    SciTech Connect

    Doerry, Armin Walter

    2014-02-01

    When multiple channels are employed in a pulse-Doppler radar, achieving and maintaining balance between the channels is problematic. In some circumstances the channels may be commutated to achieve adequate balance. Commutation is the switching, trading, toggling, or multiplexing of the channels between signal paths. Commutation allows modulating the imbalance energy away from the balanced energy in Doppler, where it can be mitigated with filtering.

  15. Rotor balancing apparatus and system

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Lyman, Frank (Inventor); Lyman, Joseph (Inventor)

    1976-01-01

    Rotor balancing apparatus and a system comprising balance probes for measuring unbalance at the ends of a magnetically suspended rotor are disclosed. Each balance probe comprises a photocell which is located in relationship to the magnetically suspended rotor such that unbalance of the rotor changes the amount of light recorded by each photocell. The signal from each photocell is electrically amplified and displayed by a suitable device, such as an oscilloscope.

  16. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

    2010-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  17. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

    2013-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2013-01-01 2013-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  18. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

    2011-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2011-01-01 2011-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  19. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

    2014-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2014-01-01 2014-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  20. 14 CFR 23.421 - Balancing loads.

    Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

    2012-01-01

    ... 14 Aeronautics and Space 1 2012-01-01 2012-01-01 false Balancing loads. 23.421 Section 23.421... Balancing Surfaces § 23.421 Balancing loads. (a) A horizontal surface balancing load is a load necessary to... balancing surfaces must be designed for the balancing loads occurring at any point on the limit...

  1. Self-confidence of anglers in identification of freshwater sport fish

    USGS Publications Warehouse

    Chizinski, C.J.; Martin, D. R.; Pope, Kevin L.

    2014-01-01

    Although several studies have focused on how well anglers identify species using replicas and pictures, there has been no study assessing the confidence that can be placed in angler's ability to identify recreationally important fish. Understanding factors associated with low self-confidence will be useful in tailoring education programmes to improve self-confidence in identifying common species. The purposes of this assessment were to quantify the confidence of recreational anglers to identify 13 commonly encountered warm water fish species and to relate self-confidence to species availability and angler experience. Significant variation was observed in anglers self-confidence among species and levels of self-declared skill, with greater confidence associated with greater skill and with greater exposure. This study of angler self-confidence strongly highlights the need for educational programmes that target lower skilled anglers and the importance of teaching all anglers about less common species, regardless of skill level.

  2. Error Modeling and Confidence Interval Estimation for Inductively Coupled Plasma Calibration Curves.

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1987-02-01

    confidence interval estimation for multiple use of the calibration curve is...calculate weights for the calibration curve fit. Multiple and single-use confidence interval estimates are obtained and results along the calibration curve are

  3. Sample Sizes for Confidence Intervals on the Increase in the Squared Multiple Correlation Coefficient.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Algina, James; Moulder, Bradley C.

    2001-01-01

    Studied sample sizes for confidence intervals on the increase in the squared multiple correlation coefficient using simulation. Discusses predictors and actual coverage probability and provides sample-size guidelines for probability coverage to be near the nominal confidence interval. (SLD)

  4. Computer-Based Confidence Testing: Alternatives to Conventional, Computer-Based Multiple-Choice Testing.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Anderson, Richard Ivan

    1982-01-01

    Describes confidence testing methods (confidence weighting, probabilistic marking, multiple alternative selection) as alternative to computer-based, multiple choice tests and explains potential benefits (increased reliability, improved examinee evaluation of alternatives, extended diagnostic information and remediation prescriptions, happier…

  5. Orbitofrontal Cortex Is Required for Optimal Waiting Based on Decision Confidence

    PubMed Central

    Lak, Armin; Costa, Gil M.; Romberg, Erin; Koulakov, Alexei A.; Mainen, Zachary F.; Kepecs, Adam

    2015-01-01

    SUMMARY Confidence judgments are a central example of metacognition—knowledge about one’s own cognitive processes. According to this metacognitive view, confidence reports are generated by a second-order monitoring process based on the quality of internal representations about beliefs. Although neural correlates of decision confidence have been recently identified in humans and other animals, it is not well understood whether there are brain areas specifically important for confidence monitoring. To address this issue, we designed a postdecision temporal wagering task in which rats expressed choice confidence by the amount of time they were willing to wait for reward. We found that orbitofrontal cortex inactivation disrupts waiting-based confidence reports without affecting decision accuracy. Furthermore, we show that a normative model can quantitatively account for waiting times based on the computation of decision confidence. These results establish an anatomical locus for a metacognitive report, confidence judgment, distinct from the processes required for perceptual decisions. PMID:25242219

  6. Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence.

    PubMed

    Alden, Kieran; Andrews, Paul S; Polack, Fiona A C; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark C; Timmis, Jon

    2015-03-06

    The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions.

  7. Behavior Detection using Confidence Intervals of Hidden Markov Models

    SciTech Connect

    Griffin, Christopher H

    2009-01-01

    Markov models are commonly used to analyze real-world problems. Their combination of discrete states and stochastic transitions is suited to applications with deterministic and stochastic components. Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a class of Markov model commonly used in pattern recognition. Currently, HMMs recognize patterns using a maximum likelihood approach. One major drawback with this approach is that data observations are mapped to HMMs without considering the number of data samples available. Another problem is that this approach is only useful for choosing between HMMs. It does not provide a criteria for determining whether or not a given HMM adequately matches the data stream. In this work, we recognize complex behaviors using HMMs and confidence intervals. The certainty of a data match increases with the number of data samples considered. Receiver Operating Characteristic curves are used to find the optimal threshold for either accepting or rejecting a HMM description. We present one example using a family of HMM's to show the utility of the proposed approach. A second example using models extracted from a database of consumer purchases provides additional evidence that this approach can perform better than existing techniques.

  8. Confidence in climate models including those with suspended particles

    NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

    Reck, Ruth A.

    1982-05-01

    Confidence in the predictions of atmospheric models is limited, (1) by the uncertainty in our knowledge of the existing atmospheric system as it is defined by input data, and (2) by the ability of the model to describe all pertinent atmospheric processes. This paper describes a thermal sensitivity study of the global parameters in one version of the Manabe-Wetherald radiative-convective model which inclkudes Mie scattering particles. The relative importance of the usual global model parameters is identified in addition to other atmospheric constituents not commonly included in climate models. In particular this work emphasizes the role of Mie scattering suspended aerosol particles, a component which is seldom included in climate models. Here we discuss the major sources of particles, how the optical properties of individual particles determine the radiative effects of a particle layer, and also illustrate the separate role of absorption and backscatter in determining the sign of the surface temperature change. In addition, the coupling of the particle effects to surface albedo is indicated. Finally, the sign of the surface temperature change from anthropogenic particles is estimated using (1) global maps of particle abundance developed by Kellogg, (2) previous calculations for the Northern Hemisphere published by the author and (3) the surface albedo maps of Hummel and Reck.

  9. Using argument notation to engineer biological simulations with increased confidence

    PubMed Central

    Alden, Kieran; Andrews, Paul S.; Polack, Fiona A. C.; Veiga-Fernandes, Henrique; Coles, Mark C.; Timmis, Jon

    2015-01-01

    The application of computational and mathematical modelling to explore the mechanics of biological systems is becoming prevalent. To significantly impact biological research, notably in developing novel therapeutics, it is critical that the model adequately represents the captured system. Confidence in adopting in silico approaches can be improved by applying a structured argumentation approach, alongside model development and results analysis. We propose an approach based on argumentation from safety-critical systems engineering, where a system is subjected to a stringent analysis of compliance against identified criteria. We show its use in examining the biological information upon which a model is based, identifying model strengths, highlighting areas requiring additional biological experimentation and providing documentation to support model publication. We demonstrate our use of structured argumentation in the development of a model of lymphoid tissue formation, specifically Peyer's Patches. The argumentation structure is captured using Artoo (www.york.ac.uk/ycil/software/artoo), our Web-based tool for constructing fitness-for-purpose arguments, using a notation based on the safety-critical goal structuring notation. We show how argumentation helps in making the design and structured analysis of a model transparent, capturing the reasoning behind the inclusion or exclusion of each biological feature and recording assumptions, as well as pointing to evidence supporting model-derived conclusions. PMID:25589574

  10. Confidence in government and vaccination willingness in the USA.

    PubMed

    Mesch, Gustavo S; Schwirian, Kent P

    2015-06-01

    The most recent internationally widespread disease outbreak occurred during the flu season of 2009 and 2010. On April 2009, the first cases of influenza A (H1N1) (Popularly called, Swine Flu) were confirmed in the USA and UK following a novel virus that was first identified in Mexico. As the virus spread rapidly, the risk of morbidity and mortality increased in several countries. In this paper, we rely on the social cognitive theory of risk to assess the willingness of the US public to comply with vaccination and reduce the risk of sickness and death from the flu. We conduct a secondary data analysis of the Pew Research for the People and Press October 2009 and investigate the factors associated with willingness to take the swine flu vaccine (n = 1000). The findings indicate that the decision to take the swine flu vaccination was highly polarized across partisan lines. Controlling for education, income and demographic factors, the likelihood of taking the vaccine was associated with party identification. Individuals that identified themselves as Democrats were more likely to be willing to take the swine vaccine than individuals that identify themselves as Republicans and Independents. Confidence in the ability of the government to deal with the swine flu crisis seems to explain party identification differences in the willingness to take the vaccine. The implications of the findings are discussed.

  11. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics.

    PubMed

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system.

  12. Efficient network meta-analysis: a confidence distribution approach*

    PubMed Central

    Yang, Guang; Liu, Dungang; Liu, Regina Y.; Xie, Minge; Hoaglin, David C.

    2014-01-01

    Summary Network meta-analysis synthesizes several studies of multiple treatment comparisons to simultaneously provide inference for all treatments in the network. It can often strengthen inference on pairwise comparisons by borrowing evidence from other comparisons in the network. Current network meta-analysis approaches are derived from either conventional pairwise meta-analysis or hierarchical Bayesian methods. This paper introduces a new approach for network meta-analysis by combining confidence distributions (CDs). Instead of combining point estimators from individual studies in the conventional approach, the new approach combines CDs which contain richer information than point estimators and thus achieves greater efficiency in its inference. The proposed CD approach can e ciently integrate all studies in the network and provide inference for all treatments even when individual studies contain only comparisons of subsets of the treatments. Through numerical studies with real and simulated data sets, the proposed approach is shown to outperform or at least equal the traditional pairwise meta-analysis and a commonly used Bayesian hierarchical model. Although the Bayesian approach may yield comparable results with a suitably chosen prior, it is highly sensitive to the choice of priors (especially the prior of the between-trial covariance structure), which is often subjective. The CD approach is a general frequentist approach and is prior-free. Moreover, it can always provide a proper inference for all the treatment effects regardless of the between-trial covariance structure. PMID:25067933

  13. Max-confidence boosting with uncertainty for visual tracking.

    PubMed

    Guo, Wen; Cao, Liangliang; Han, Tony X; Yan, Shuicheng; Xu, Changsheng

    2015-05-01

    The challenges in visual tracking call for a method which can reliably recognize the subject of interests in an environment, where the appearance of both the background and the foreground change with time. Many existing studies model this problem as tracking by classification with online updating of the classification models, however, most of them overlook the ambiguity in visual modeling and do not consider the prior information in the tracking process. In this paper, we present a novel visual tracking method called max-confidence boosting (MCB), which explores a new way of online updating ambiguous visual phenomenon. The MCB framework models uncertainty in prior knowledge utilizing the indeterministic labels, which are used in updating models from previous frames and the new frame. Our proposed MCB tracker allows ambiguity in the tracking process and can effectively alleviate the drift problem. Many experimental results in challenging video sequences verify the success of our method, and our MCB tracker outperforms a number of the state-of-the-art tracking by classification methods.

  14. Ontology Alignment Repair through Modularization and Confidence-Based Heuristics

    PubMed Central

    Santos, Emanuel; Faria, Daniel; Pesquita, Catia; Couto, Francisco M.

    2015-01-01

    Ontology Matching aims at identifying a set of semantic correspondences, called an alignment, between related ontologies. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in efficient and effective matching methods for large ontologies. However, alignments produced for large ontologies are often logically incoherent. It was only recently that the use of repair techniques to improve the coherence of ontology alignments began to be explored. This paper presents a novel modularization technique for ontology alignment repair which extracts fragments of the input ontologies that only contain the necessary classes and relations to resolve all detectable incoherences. The paper presents also an alignment repair algorithm that uses a global repair strategy to minimize both the degree of incoherence and the number of mappings removed from the alignment, while overcoming the scalability problem by employing the proposed modularization technique. Our evaluation shows that our modularization technique produces significantly small fragments of the ontologies and that our repair algorithm produces more complete alignments than other current alignment repair systems, while obtaining an equivalent degree of incoherence. Additionally, we also present a variant of our repair algorithm that makes use of the confidence values of the mappings to improve alignment repair. Our repair algorithm was implemented as part of AgreementMakerLight, a free and open-source ontology matching system. PMID:26710335

  15. Simulations of the Hadamard Variance: Probability Distributions and Confidence Intervals.

    PubMed

    Ashby, Neil; Patla, Bijunath

    2016-04-01

    Power-law noise in clocks and oscillators can be simulated by Fourier transforming a modified spectrum of white phase noise. This approach has been applied successfully to simulation of the Allan variance and the modified Allan variance in both overlapping and nonoverlapping forms. When significant frequency drift is present in an oscillator, at large sampling times the Allan variance overestimates the intrinsic noise, while the Hadamard variance is insensitive to frequency drift. The simulation method is extended in this paper to predict the Hadamard variance for the common types of power-law noise. Symmetric real matrices are introduced whose traces-the sums of their eigenvalues-are equal to the Hadamard variances, in overlapping or nonoverlapping forms, as well as for the corresponding forms of the modified Hadamard variance. We show that the standard relations between spectral densities and Hadamard variance are obtained with this method. The matrix eigenvalues determine probability distributions for observing a variance at an arbitrary value of the sampling interval τ, and hence for estimating confidence in the measurements.

  16. On the form of ROCs constructed from confidence ratings.

    PubMed

    Malmberg, Kenneth J

    2002-03-01

    A classical question for memory researchers is whether memories vary in an all-or-nothing, discrete manner (e.g., stored vs. not stored, recalled vs. not recalled), or whether they vary along a continuous dimension (e.g., strength, similarity, or familiarity). For yes-no classification tasks, continuous- and discrete-state models predict nonlinear and linear receiver operating characteristics (ROCs), respectively (D. M. Green & J. A. Swets, 1966; N. A. Macmillan & C. D. Creelman, 1991). Recently, several authors have assumed that these predictions are generalizable to confidence ratings tasks (J. Qin, C. L. Raye, M. K. Johnson, & K. J. Mitchell, 2001; S. D. Slotnick, S. A. Klein, C. S. Dodson, & A. P. Shimamura, 2000, and A. P. Yonelinas, 1999). This assumption is shown to be unwarranted by showing that discrete-state ratings models predict both linear and nonlinear ROCs. The critical factor determining the form of the discrete-state ROC is the response strategy adopted by the classifier.

  17. Recommended tests and confidence intervals for paired binomial proportions.

    PubMed

    Fagerland, Morten W; Lydersen, Stian; Laake, Petter

    2014-07-20

    We describe, evaluate, and recommend statistical methods for the analysis of paired binomial proportions. A total of 24 methods are considered. The best tests for association include the asymptotic McNemar test and the McNemar mid- p test. For the difference between proportions, we recommend two simple confidence intervals with closed-form expressions and the asymptotic score interval. The asymptotic score interval is also recommended for the ratio of proportions, as is an interval with closed-form expression based on combining two Wilson score intervals for the single proportion. For the odds ratio, we recommend a transformation of the Wilson score interval and a transformation of the Clopper-Pearson mid- p interval. We illustrate the practical application of the methods using data from a recently published study of airway reactivity in children before and after stem cell transplantation and a matched case-control study of the association between floppy eyelid syndrome and obstructive sleep apnea-hypopnea syndrome.

  18. Haemostatic balance in cirrhosis.

    PubMed

    Baccouche, Héla; Labidi, Asma; Fekih, Monia; Mahjoub, Sonia; Kaabi, Houda; Hmida, Slama; Filali, Azza; Romdhane, Neila B

    2017-03-01

    Despite the prolongation of coagulation tests, recent studies reported an increased frequency of thromboembolic events in patients with cirrhosis. The aim of this study was to evaluate the haemostatic balance in cirrhotic patients through assessing the variation of pro- and anticoagulant factors and evaluating the in-vitro thrombin generation in patients with cirrhosis and in healthy patients. Fifty-one cirrhotic patients with or without thromboembolic events and 50 controls matched by age and sex were enrolled. Procoagulant (factors VII, II, V, VIII, and XII) and inhibitor (protein C, protein S and antithrombin) factor activities were determined. Thrombin generation was measured as endogenous thrombin potential (ETP). Haemostatic balance was assessed by means of both procoagulant to inhibitor coagulation factor ratios and ETP with to without protein C activation ratios. There were 24 males and 27 females. The mean age was 57.8 years [16-91 years]. Pro and anticoagulant factors were significantly lower in patients than in controls (P < 0.001) except for factor VIII and protein S. In fact factor VIII level was significantly higher in patients than in controls and protein S levels were not significantly different between patients and controls. Almost all the pro to anticoagulant factor ratios were higher in cirrhotics than in controls, especially the factor VIII to protein C ratios which increased significantly from Child Pugh A to C (P < 0.001), the ratio of ETP with to without protein C activator was higher in patients than in controls, but did not reach a significant level (0.8 vs. 0.52) There was no statistically significant difference between Child classes. When comparing patients with history of thrombosis (n = 7) to those matched by age and sex and without history of thrombosis (n = 14), the ratios were not statistically different between the two groups. Haemostatic changes in cirrhosis tend to rebalance the haemostatic system. This state often

  19. Lecturer Confidence Building: The Use of Age Progression and Ego Enhancement.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stanton, Harry E.

    1995-01-01

    A program of hypnotic suggestion, visualization, and relaxation training was used to help improve the teaching self-confidence of 22 university faculty. Comparison of preprogram, postprogram, and six-month follow-up measures of confidence, including both psychometric and anecdotal reports, found the participants' confidence level had been both…

  20. Introduction to Sample Size Choice for Confidence Intervals Based on "t" Statistics

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Liu, Xiaofeng Steven; Loudermilk, Brandon; Simpson, Thomas

    2014-01-01

    Sample size can be chosen to achieve a specified width in a confidence interval. The probability of obtaining a narrow width given that the confidence interval includes the population parameter is defined as the power of the confidence interval, a concept unfamiliar to many practitioners. This article shows how to utilize the Statistical Analysis…

  1. Supporting the Distant Student: The Effect of ARCS-Based Strategies on Confidence and Performance

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Huett, Jason Bond; Young, Jon; Huett, Kimberly Cleaves; Moller, Leslie; Bray, Marty

    2008-01-01

    The purpose of this research was to manipulate the component of confidence found in Keller's ARCS Model to enhance the confidence and performance of undergraduate students enrolled in an online course at a Texas University. This experiment used SAM Office 2003 and WebCT for the delivery of the tactics, strategies, confidence-enhancing e-mails…

  2. Confidence and Cognitive Test Performance. Research Report. ETS RR-07-03

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Stankov, Lazar; Lee, Jihyun

    2007-01-01

    This paper examines the nature of confidence in relation to cognitive abilities, personality traits, and metacognition. Confidence was measured as it was expressed in answers to each test item during the administration of reading and listening sections of the TOEFL® iBT. The confidence scores were correlated with the accuracy scores from the TOEFL…

  3. Cheap Talk and Credibility: The Consequences of Confidence and Accuracy on Advisor Credibility and Persuasiveness

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Sah, Sunita; Moore, Don A.; MacCoun, Robert J.

    2013-01-01

    Is it possible to increase one's influence simply by behaving more confidently? Prior research presents two competing hypotheses: (1) the confidence heuristic holds that more confidence increases credibility, and (2) the calibration hypothesis asserts that overconfidence will backfire when others find out. Study 1 reveals that, consistent with the…

  4. Point Estimation and Confidence Interval Estimation for Binomial and Multinomial Parameters

    DTIC Science & Technology

    1975-12-31

    AD-A021 208 POINT ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR BINOMIAL AND MULTINOMIAL PARAMETERS Ramesh Chandra Union College...I 00 064098 O < POINT ESTIMATION AND CONFIDENCE INTERVAL ESTIMATION FOR BINOMIAL AND MULTINOMIAL PARAMETERS AES-7514 ■ - 1976...AES-7514 2 COVT ACCESSION NO * TITLC fan« Submit) Point Estimation and Confidence Interval Estimation for Binomial and Multinomial Parameters

  5. Pre-Service Geography Teachers' Confidence in Geographical Subject Matter Knowledge and Teaching Geographical Skills

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Harte, Wendy; Reitano, Paul

    2015-01-01

    This research tracked the confidence of 16 undergraduate and postgraduate pre-service geography teachers as they completed a single semester, senior phase geography curriculum course. The study focused specifically on the pre-service teachers' confidence in geographical subject matter knowledge and their confidence in teaching geographical skills.…

  6. Public Confidence in Public Education: A Growing Concern in the 80's.

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Achilles, C. M.; Lintz, M. N.

    This literature review and analysis of the problem of building community confidence focuses on the work of the Phi Delta Kappa (PDK) Commission on Developing Public Confidence in Schools. Approaches to confidence building are categorized as: communications, concentrating on expanding communications one-way between school and the home; public…

  7. Combining one-sample confidence procedures for inference in the two-sample case.

    PubMed

    Fay, Michael P; Proschan, Michael A; Brittain, Erica

    2015-03-01

    We present a simple general method for combining two one-sample confidence procedures to obtain inferences in the two-sample problem. Some applications give striking connections to established methods; for example, combining exact binomial confidence procedures gives new confidence intervals on the difference or ratio of proportions that match inferences using Fisher's exact test, and numeric studies show the associated confidence intervals bound the type I error rate. Combining exact one-sample Poisson confidence procedures recreates standard confidence intervals on the ratio, and introduces new ones for the difference. Combining confidence procedures associated with one-sample t-tests recreates the Behrens-Fisher intervals. Other applications provide new confidence intervals with fewer assumptions than previously needed. For example, the method creates new confidence intervals on the difference in medians that do not require shift and continuity assumptions. We create a new confidence interval for the difference between two survival distributions at a fixed time point when there is independent censoring by combining the recently developed beta product confidence procedure for each single sample. The resulting interval is designed to guarantee coverage regardless of sample size or censoring distribution, and produces equivalent inferences to Fisher's exact test when there is no censoring. We show theoretically that when combining intervals asymptotically equivalent to normal intervals, our method has asymptotically accurate coverage. Importantly, all situations studied suggest guaranteed nominal coverage for our new interval whenever the original confidence procedures themselves guarantee coverage.

  8. Prior knowledge is more predictive of error correction than subjective confidence.

    PubMed

    Sitzman, Danielle M; Rhodes, Matthew G; Tauber, Sarah K

    2014-01-01

    Previous research has demonstrated that, when given feedback, participants are more likely to correct confidently-held errors, as compared with errors held with lower levels of confidence, a finding termed the hypercorrection effect. Accounts of hypercorrection suggest that confidence modifies attention to feedback; alternatively, hypercorrection may reflect prior domain knowledge, with confidence ratings simply correlated with this prior knowledge. In the present experiments, we attempted to adjudicate among these explanations of the hypercorrection effect. In Experiments 1a and 1b, participants answered general knowledge questions, rated their confidence, and received feedback either immediately after rating their confidence or after a delay of several minutes. Although memory for confidence judgments should have been poorer at a delay, the hypercorrection effect was equivalent for both feedback timings. Experiment 2 showed that hypercorrection remained unchanged even when the delay to feedback was increased. In addition, measures of recall for prior confidence judgments showed that memory for confidence was indeed poorer after a delay. Experiment 3 directly compared estimates of domain knowledge with confidence ratings, showing that such prior knowledge was related to error correction, whereas the unique role of confidence was small. Overall, our results suggest that prior knowledge likely plays a primary role in error correction, while confidence may play a small role or merely serve as a proxy for prior knowledge.

  9. Early Childhood Practicum Students' Professional Growth in the USA: Areas of Confidence and Concern

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Wee, Su-Jeong; Weber, Elsa K.; Park, Soyeon

    2014-01-01

    This research examines specific areas of confidence and concern as expressed by 40 American undergraduate early childhood students on a practicum (supervised field-based internships); if their beliefs changed over the course of their practicum, and if prior teaching experience had an impact on their confidence levels. Areas of confidence and…

  10. Examining multidimensional sport-confidence in athletes and non-athlete sport performers.

    PubMed

    Machida, Moe; Otten, Mark; Magyar, T Michelle; Vealey, Robin S; Ward, Rose Marie

    2017-03-01

    Sport-confidence is considered a critical success factor for sport performers at all levels. Researchers have suggested that sport-confidence is a multidimensional rather than a unidimensional construct, and the sport-confidence model identified three types of sport-confidence (i.e., physical skills and training, cognitive efficiency, and resilience) that are important for success in sport. However, such multidimensionality of sport-confidence and its measurement have not been fully examined. On a large sample of sport performers with varied skill levels and characteristics, the purpose of the present study was to examine the three-factor model of sport-confidence. We tested the measurement invariance of the Sport-Confidence Inventory across 512 athletes and 1170 non-athlete sport performers. Results from the multiple group model analysis showed that the three-factor model of sport-confidence fit better for the athlete sample than for the non-athlete sample. The results implicate that the three-factor model of sport-confidence model is suitable to athletes, though sport-confidence may appear more unidimensional for non-athletes. The use of the Sport-Confidence Inventory for non-athlete sport performers demands further consideration; however, the findings implicate that it could be a useful tool to assess sport-confidence of sport performers at any levels.

  11. 77 FR 5471 - Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule Retrospective Review

    Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

    2012-02-03

    ... AGENCY 40 CFR Parts 141 and 142 Announcement of Public Meeting on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR... Internet on February 23, 2012, to obtain stakeholder input on the Consumer Confidence Report (CCR) Rule as.... Background: Consumer Confidence Reports are a key part of the public's right-to-know as established in...

  12. Subjective Confidence in Perceptual Judgments: A Test of the Self-Consistency Model

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Koriat, Asher

    2011-01-01

    Two questions about subjective confidence in perceptual judgments are examined: the bases for these judgments and the reasons for their accuracy. Confidence in perceptual judgments has been claimed to rest on qualitatively different processes than confidence in memory tasks. However, predictions from a self-consistency model (SCM), which had been…

  13. An Integrated Understanding of Confidence and User Calibration in Information Systems Use

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Tang, Fengchun

    2012-01-01

    Dealing with uncertainty is a critical part of human decision-making and confidence reflects one's belief about the relative likelihood that various outcomes occur when making decision under uncertainty. Unfortunately, confidence often deviates from the actual quality of the decision, leading to under- or over-confidence. Calibration, the…

  14. Dynamic Balancing Of Turbomachinery Shafts And Rotors

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Verhoff, Vincent G.

    1993-01-01

    Method for dynamic balancing of turbomachinery shafts and rotors developed with view toward reducing time spent in balancing process. Improved method based on existing dynamic-balancing techniques and equipment, incorporating use of balancing arbor, which is mandrel duplicating mounting geometry and dynamic-balance properties of shaft balanced. Once shaft balanced, not necessary to disassemble machinery and/or shaft completely and rebalance shaft when replacing rotor on shaft. Instead, one balances replacement rotor on balancing arbor, then installs balanced rotor on shaft.

  15. In the Balance:

    PubMed Central

    Weaver, Lawrence T.

    2010-01-01

    Summary The nineteenth century saw the incorporation of technology, such as the stethoscope, microscope, and thermometer, into clinical medicine. An instrument that has received less attention in the history of the role of technology in medicine is the weighing balance, or scale. Although not new to nineteenth-century medicine, it played an important part in the rise of the numerical method and its application to the development and shaping of pediatrics. This article explores the origin and development of the weighing of babies. During its clinical and scientific adoption, this simple procedure was refined and applied in a number of increasingly sophisticated and far-reaching ways: as a measure of the dimensions of the fetus and newborn, as an index of the viability of the newborn, as a means of estimating milk intake, as a way of distinguishing normality from abnormality, as a summary measure of infant health, and as an instrument of mass surveillance. In so doing it changed the way in which medical care was delivered to infants. PMID:20632732

  16. A Balanced Memory Network

    PubMed Central

    Roudi, Yasser; Latham, Peter E

    2007-01-01

    A fundamental problem in neuroscience is understanding how working memory—the ability to store information at intermediate timescales, like tens of seconds—is implemented in realistic neuronal networks. The most likely candidate mechanism is the attractor network, and a great deal of effort has gone toward investigating it theoretically. Yet, despite almost a quarter century of intense work, attractor networks are not fully understood. In particular, there are still two unanswered questions. First, how is it that attractor networks exhibit irregular firing, as is observed experimentally during working memory tasks? And second, how many memories can be stored under biologically realistic conditions? Here we answer both questions by studying an attractor neural network in which inhibition and excitation balance each other. Using mean-field analysis, we derive a three-variable description of attractor networks. From this description it follows that irregular firing can exist only if the number of neurons involved in a memory is large. The same mean-field analysis also shows that the number of memories that can be stored in a network scales with the number of excitatory connections, a result that has been suggested for simple models but never shown for realistic ones. Both of these predictions are verified using simulations with large networks of spiking neurons. PMID:17845070

  17. Balancing "we" and "me".

    PubMed

    Congdon, Christine; Flynn, Donna; Redman, Melanie

    2014-10-01

    The open office is the dominant form of workspace design for good reason: It fosters collaboration, promotes learning, and nurtures strong culture. But what most companies fail to realize is that collaboration has a natural rhythm that requires both interaction and private contemplation. Companies have been trying for decades to find the balance between public and private workspace that best supports collaboration. In 1980 52% of U.S. employees lacked workspaces where they could concentrate without distraction. In response, high-walled cubicles took over the corporate landscape. By the late 1990s, the tide had turned, and only 23% of employees wanted more privacy, and 50% wanted more access to other people. Ever since, firms have been beefing up spaces that support collaboration and shrinking areas for individual work. But the pendulum seems to have swung too far: Once again, people feel a pressing need for privacy, not only to do heads-down work but to cope with the intensity of work today. To address these needs, according to the authors, we have to rethink our assumptions about privacy. Traditionally defined in physical terms, privacy is now about the individual's ability to control information and stimulation. In this article, the authors examine workspace design through the new lens of privacy and offer insights on how to foster teamwork and solitude.

  18. Heat balance of the Earth

    NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

    Budyko, M. I.; Berlyand, T. G.; Yefimova, N. A.; Zubenok, L. I.; Strokina, L. A.

    1980-01-01

    Results of improved calculations of the heat balance components of Earth's surface are reported for yearly average conditions. The technique used to determine the heat-balance components from land- and sea-based actinometric observations as well as from satellite data on the radiation balance of the Earth-atmosphere system is described, with special attention given to short-wavelength solar radiation on the continents, effective radiation from the land surface, the radiation balance of the ocean surface, heat expended by both evaporation from the ocean surface, and turbulent heat transfer between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. World maps of heat-balance components show yearly average values of total radiation, radiation balance, heat expended by evaporation, the turbulent heat flow between Earth's surface and atmosphere, and heat transfer between the ocean surface and underlying waters. The global surface heat balance is estimated along with global values of the various components and the heat-balance components for different latitude zones.

  19. Balancing Safety and Free Speech

    ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

    Hudson, David L., Jr.

    2004-01-01

    According to Jay Worona, general counsel for the New York State School Board Association, "Balancing safety and student constitutional rights is not easy. It has to be a careful balance. School officials must be prudent and not overreact. But one part of the equation has to be paramount. And safety should be the primary concern"…

  20. Post choice information integration as a causal determinant of confidence: Novel data and a computational account.

    PubMed

    Moran, Rani; Teodorescu, Andrei R; Usher, Marius

    2015-05-01

    Confidence judgments are pivotal in the performance of daily tasks and in many domains of scientific research including the behavioral sciences, psychology and neuroscience. Positive resolution i.e., the positive correlation between choice-correctness and choice-confidence is a critical property of confidence judgments, which justifies their ubiquity. In the current paper, we study the mechanism underlying confidence judgments and their resolution by investigating the source of the inputs for the confidence-calculation. We focus on the intriguing debate between two families of confidence theories. According to single stage theories, confidence is based on the same information that underlies the decision (or on some other aspect of the decision process), whereas according to dual stage theories, confidence is affected by novel information that is collected after the decision was made. In three experiments, we support the case for dual stage theories by showing that post-choice perceptual availability manipulations exert a causal effect on confidence-resolution in the decision followed by confidence paradigm. These finding establish the role of RT2, the duration of the post-choice information-integration stage, as a prime dependent variable that theories of confidence should account for. We then present a novel list of robust empirical patterns ('hurdles') involving RT2 to guide further theorizing about confidence judgments. Finally, we present a unified computational dual stage model for choice, confidence and their latencies namely, the collapsing confidence boundary model (CCB). According to CCB, a diffusion-process choice is followed by a second evidence-integration stage towards a stochastic collapsing confidence boundary. Despite its simplicity, CCB clears the entire list of hurdles.