Gauging climate change effects at local scales: weather-based indices to monitor insect harassment in caribou.

PubMed

Witter, Leslie A; Johnson, Chris J; Croft, Bruno; Gunn, Anne; Poirier, Lisa M

2012-09-01

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in the Arctic. Insect harassment may be an important link between increased summer temperature and reduced body condition in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus). To examine the effects of climate change at a scale relevant to Rangifer herds, we developed monitoring indices using weather to predict activity of parasitic insects across the central Arctic. During 2007-2009, we recorded weather conditions and used carbon dioxide baited traps to monitor activity of mosquitoes (Culicidae), black flies (Simuliidae), and oestrid flies (Oestridae) on the post-calving and summer range of the Bathurst barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) herd in Northwest Territories and Nunavut, Canada. We developed statistical models representing hypotheses about effects of weather, habitat, location, and temporal variables on insect activity. We used multinomial logistic regression to model mosquito and black fly activity, and logistic regression to model oestrid fly presence. We used information theory to select models to predict activity levels of insects. Using historical weather data, we used hindcasting to develop a chronology of insect activity on the Bathurst range from 1957 to 2008. Oestrid presence and mosquito and black fly activity levels were explained by temperature. Wind speed, light intensity, barometric pressure, relative humidity, vegetation, topography, location, time of day, and growing degree-days also affected mosquito and black fly levels. High predictive ability of all models justified the use of weather to index insect activity. Retrospective analyses indicated conditions favoring mosquito activity declined since the late 1950s, while predicted black fly and oestrid activity increased. Our indices can be used as monitoring tools to gauge potential changes in insect harassment due to climate change at scales relevant to caribou herds.

Active inference, communication and hermeneutics☆

PubMed Central

Friston, Karl J.; Frith, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others – during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions – both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then – in principle – they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. PMID:25957007

Active inference, communication and hermeneutics.

PubMed

Friston, Karl J; Frith, Christopher D

2015-07-01

Hermeneutics refers to interpretation and translation of text (typically ancient scriptures) but also applies to verbal and non-verbal communication. In a psychological setting it nicely frames the problem of inferring the intended content of a communication. In this paper, we offer a solution to the problem of neural hermeneutics based upon active inference. In active inference, action fulfils predictions about how we will behave (e.g., predicting we will speak). Crucially, these predictions can be used to predict both self and others--during speaking and listening respectively. Active inference mandates the suppression of prediction errors by updating an internal model that generates predictions--both at fast timescales (through perceptual inference) and slower timescales (through perceptual learning). If two agents adopt the same model, then--in principle--they can predict each other and minimise their mutual prediction errors. Heuristically, this ensures they are singing from the same hymn sheet. This paper builds upon recent work on active inference and communication to illustrate perceptual learning using simulated birdsongs. Our focus here is the neural hermeneutics implicit in learning, where communication facilitates long-term changes in generative models that are trying to predict each other. In other words, communication induces perceptual learning and enables others to (literally) change our minds and vice versa. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Surfing depth on a behaviour change website: predictors and effects on behaviour.

PubMed

Jacobs, Nele; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Claes, Neree

2010-03-01

The primary objectives of the present study were to gain insight into website use and to predict the surfing depth on a behaviour change website and its effect on behaviour. Two hundred eight highly educated adults from the intervention condition of a randomised trial received access to a medical intervention, individual coaching (by e-mail, post, telephone or face-to-face) and a behaviour change website. Website use (e.g. surfing depth, page view duration) was registered. Online questionnaires for physical activity and fat intake were filled out at baseline and after 6 months. Hierarchical linear regression was used to predict surfing depth and its effect on behaviour. Seventy-five per cent of the participants visited the website. Fifty-one and fifty-six per cent consulted the physical activity and fat intake feedback, respectively. The median surfing depth was 2. The total duration of interventions by e-mail predicted deeper surfing (beta=0.36; p<0.001). Surfing depth did not predict changes in fat intake (beta=-0.07; p=0.45) or physical activity (beta=-0.03; p=0.72). Consulting the physical activity feedback led to more physical activity (beta=0.23; p=0.01). The findings from the present study can be used to guide future website development and improve the information architecture of behaviour change websites.

Predicting Persuasion-Induced Behavior Change from the Brain

PubMed Central

Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Although persuasive messages often alter people’s self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p < 0.05). Additionally, an iterative cross-validation approach using activity in this MPFC ROI predicted an average 23% of the variance in behavior change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance. PMID:20573889

Neural Activity During Health Messaging Predicts Reductions in Smoking Above and Beyond Self-Report

PubMed Central

Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Whalen, Danielle; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Objective The current study tested whether neural activity in response to messages designed to help smokers quit could predict smoking reduction, above and beyond self-report. Design Using neural activity in an a priori region of interest (a subregion of medial prefrontal cortex [MPFC]), in response to ads designed to help smokers quit smoking, we prospectively predicted reductions in smoking in a community sample of smokers (N = 28) who were attempting to quit smoking. Smoking was assessed via expired carbon monoxide (CO; a biological measure of recent smoking) at baseline and 1 month following exposure to professionally developed quitting ads. Results A positive relationship was observed between activity in the MPFC region of interest and successful quitting (increased activity in MPFC was associated with a greater decrease in expired CO). The addition of neural activity to a model predicting changes in CO from self-reported intentions, self-efficacy, and ability to relate to the messages significantly improved model fit, doubling the variance explained ( Rself−report2=.15,Rself−report+neuralactivity2=.35,Rchange2=.20). Conclusion: Neural activity is a useful complement to existing self-report measures. In this investigation, we extend prior work predicting behavior change based on neural activity in response to persuasive media to an important health domain and discuss potential psychological interpretations of the brain–behavior link. Our results support a novel use of neuroimaging technology for understanding the psychology of behavior change and facilitating health promotion. PMID:21261410

Participant Adherence Indicators Predict Changes in Blood Pressure, Anthropometric Measures, and Self-Reported Physical Activity in a Lifestyle Intervention: HUB City Steps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thomson, Jessica L.; Landry, Alicia S.; Zoellner, Jamie M.; Connell, Carol; Madson, Michael B.; Molaison, Elaine Fontenot; Yadrick, Kathy

2015-01-01

The objective of this secondary analysis was to evaluate the utility of several participant adherence indicators for predicting changes in clinical, anthropometric, dietary, fitness, and physical activity (PA) outcomes in a lifestyle intervention, HUB City Steps, conducted in a southern, African American cohort in 2010. HUB City Steps was a…

Predicting changes in volcanic activity through modelling magma ascent rate.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Mark; Neuberg, Jurgen

2013-04-01

It is a simple fact that changes in volcanic activity happen and in retrospect they are easy to spot, the dissimilar eruption dynamics between an effusive and explosive event are not hard to miss. However to be able to predict such changes is a much more complicated process. To cause altering styles of activity we know that some part or combination of parts within the system must vary with time, as if there is no physical change within the system, why would the change in eruptive activity occur? What is unknown is which parts or how big a change is needed. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models that aim to answer these questions by assessing the influence of individual model parameters such as the dissolved water content or magma temperature. By altering these variables in a systematic manner we measure the effect of the changes by observing the modelled ascent rate. We use the ascent rate as we believe it is a very important indicator that can control the style of eruptive activity. In particular, we found that the sensitivity of the ascent rate to small changes in model parameters surprising. Linking these changes to observable monitoring data in a way that these data could be used as a predictive tool is the ultimate goal of this work. We will show that changes in ascent rate can be estimated by a particular type of seismicity. Low frequency seismicity, thought to be caused by the brittle failure of melt is often linked with the movement of magma within a conduit. We show that acceleration in the rate of low frequency seismicity can correspond to an increase in the rate of magma movement and be used as an indicator for potential changes in eruptive activity.

Wanting to Be Different Predicts Nonmotivated Change: Actual-Desired Self-Discrepancies and Susceptibility to Subtle Change Inductions.

PubMed

DeMarree, Kenneth G; Rios, Kimberly; Randell, J Adam; Wheeler, S Christian; Reich, Darcy A; Petty, Richard E

2016-12-01

Actual-desired discrepancies in people's self-concepts represent structural incongruities in their self-representations that can lead people to experience subjective conflict. Theory and research suggest that structural incongruities predict susceptibility to subtle influences like priming and conditioning. Although typically examined for their motivational properties, we hypothesized that because self-discrepancies represent structural incongruities in people's self-concepts, they should also predict susceptibility to subtle influences on people's active self-views. Across three studies, we found that subtle change inductions (self-evaluative conditioning and priming) exerted greater impact on active self-perceptions and behavior as actual-desired self-discrepancies increased in magnitude. Exploratory analyses suggested that these changes occurred regardless of the compatibility of the change induction with individuals' desired self-views. © 2016 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

The Neural Correlates of Hierarchical Predictions for Perceptual Decisions.

PubMed

Weilnhammer, Veith A; Stuke, Heiner; Sterzer, Philipp; Schmack, Katharina

2018-05-23

Sensory information is inherently noisy, sparse, and ambiguous. In contrast, visual experience is usually clear, detailed, and stable. Bayesian theories of perception resolve this discrepancy by assuming that prior knowledge about the causes underlying sensory stimulation actively shapes perceptual decisions. The CNS is believed to entertain a generative model aligned to dynamic changes in the hierarchical states of our volatile sensory environment. Here, we used model-based fMRI to study the neural correlates of the dynamic updating of hierarchically structured predictions in male and female human observers. We devised a crossmodal associative learning task with covertly interspersed ambiguous trials in which participants engaged in hierarchical learning based on changing contingencies between auditory cues and visual targets. By inverting a Bayesian model of perceptual inference, we estimated individual hierarchical predictions, which significantly biased perceptual decisions under ambiguity. Although "high-level" predictions about the cue-target contingency correlated with activity in supramodal regions such as orbitofrontal cortex and hippocampus, dynamic "low-level" predictions about the conditional target probabilities were associated with activity in retinotopic visual cortex. Our results suggest that our CNS updates distinct representations of hierarchical predictions that continuously affect perceptual decisions in a dynamically changing environment. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Bayesian theories posit that our brain entertains a generative model to provide hierarchical predictions regarding the causes of sensory information. Here, we use behavioral modeling and fMRI to study the neural underpinnings of such hierarchical predictions. We show that "high-level" predictions about the strength of dynamic cue-target contingencies during crossmodal associative learning correlate with activity in orbitofrontal cortex and the hippocampus, whereas "low-level" conditional target probabilities were reflected in retinotopic visual cortex. Our findings empirically corroborate theorizations on the role of hierarchical predictions in visual perception and contribute substantially to a longstanding debate on the link between sensory predictions and orbitofrontal or hippocampal activity. Our work fundamentally advances the mechanistic understanding of perceptual inference in the human brain. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/385008-14$15.00/0.

Implication of global climate change on the distribution and activity of Phytophthora ramorum

Treesearch

Robert C. Venette

2009-01-01

Global climate change is predicted to alter the distribution and activity of several forest pathogens. Boland et al. (2004) suggested that climate change might affect pathogen establishment, rate of disease progress, and the duration of...

Voluntary climate change mitigation actions of young adults: a classification of mitigators through latent class analysis.

PubMed

Korkala, Essi A E; Hugg, Timo T; Jaakkola, Jouni J K

2014-01-01

Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns.

Voluntary Climate Change Mitigation Actions of Young Adults: A Classification of Mitigators through Latent Class Analysis

PubMed Central

Korkala, Essi A. E.; Hugg, Timo T.; Jaakkola, Jouni J. K.

2014-01-01

Encouraging individuals to take action is important for the overall success of climate change mitigation. Campaigns promoting climate change mitigation could address particular groups of the population on the basis of what kind of mitigation actions the group is already taking. To increase the knowledge of such groups performing similar mitigation actions we conducted a population-based cross-sectional study in Finland. The study population comprised 1623 young adults who returned a self-administered questionnaire (response rate 64%). Our aims were to identify groups of people engaged in similar climate change mitigation actions and to study the gender differences in the grouping. We also determined if socio-demographic characteristics can predict group membership. We performed latent class analysis using 14 mitigation actions as manifest variables. Three classes were identified among men: the Inactive (26%), the Semi-active (63%) and the Active (11%) and two classes among women: the Semi-active (72%) and the Active (28%). The Active among both genders were likely to have mitigated climate change through several actions, such as recycling, using environmentally friendly products, preferring public transport, and conserving energy. The Semi-Active had most probably recycled and preferred public transport because of climate change. The Inactive, a class identified among men only, had very probably done nothing to mitigate climate change. Among males, being single or divorced predicted little involvement in climate change mitigation. Among females, those without tertiary degree and those with annual income €≥16801 were less involved in climate change mitigation. Our results illustrate to what extent young adults are engaged in climate change mitigation, which factors predict little involvement in mitigation and give insight to which segments of the public could be the audiences of targeted mitigation campaigns. PMID:25054549

Motivational processes and well-being in cardiac rehabilitation: a self-determination theory perspective.

PubMed

Rahman, Rachel Jane; Hudson, Joanne; Thøgersen-Ntoumani, Cecilie; Doust, Jonathan H

2015-01-01

This research examined the processes underpinning changes in psychological well-being and behavioural regulation in cardiac rehabilitation (CR) patients using self-determination theory (SDT). A repeated measures design was used to identify the longitudinal relationships between SDT variables, psychological well-being and exercise behaviour during and following a structured CR programme. Participants were 389 cardiac patients (aged 36-84 years; M(age) = 64 ± 9 years; 34.3% female) referred to a 12-week-supervised CR programme. Psychological need satisfaction, behavioural regulation, health-related quality of life, physical self-worth, anxiety and depression were measured at programme entry, exit and six month post-programme. During the programme, increases in autonomy satisfaction predicted positive changes in behavioural regulation, and improvements in competence and relatedness satisfaction predicted improvements in behavioural regulation and well-being. Competence satisfaction also positively predicted habitual physical activity. Decreases in external regulation and increases in intrinsic motivation predicted improvements in physical self-worth and physical well-being, respectively. Significant longitudinal relationships were identified whereby changes during the programme predicted changes in habitual physical activity and the mental quality of life from exit to six month follow-up. Findings provide insight into the factors explaining psychological changes seen during CR. They highlight the importance of increasing patients' perceptions of psychological need satisfaction and self-determined motivation to improve well-being during the structured component of a CR programme and longer term physical activity.

Spatial representation of organic carbon and active-layer thickness of high latitude soils in CMIP5 earth system models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mishra, Umakant; Drewniak, Beth; Jastrow, Julie D.

Soil properties such as soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and active-layer thickness are used in earth system models (F.SMs) to predict anthropogenic and climatic impacts on soil carbon dynamics, future changes in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated climate changes in the permafrost regions. Accurate representation of spatial and vertical distribution of these soil properties in ESMs is a prerequisite for redudng existing uncertainty in predicting carbon-climate feedbacks. We compared the spatial representation of SOC stocks and active-layer thicknesses predicted by the coupled Modellntercomparison Project Phase 5 { CMIP5) ESMs with those predicted from geospatial predictions, based on observation datamore » for the state of Alaska, USA. For the geospatial modeling. we used soil profile observations {585 for SOC stocks and 153 for active-layer thickness) and environmental variables (climate, topography, land cover, and surficial geology types) and generated fine-resolution (50-m spatial resolution) predictions of SOC stocks (to 1-m depth) and active-layer thickness across Alaska. We found large inter-quartile range (2.5-5.5 m) in predicted active-layer thickness of CMIP5 modeled results and small inter-quartile range (11.5-22 kg m-2) in predicted SOC stocks. The spatial coefficient of variability of active-layer thickness and SOC stocks were lower in CMIP5 predictions compared to our geospatial estimates when gridded at similar spatial resolutions (24.7 compared to 30% and 29 compared to 38%, respectively). However, prediction errors. when calculated for independent validation sites, were several times larger in ESM predictions compared to geospatial predictions. Primaly factors leading to observed differences were ( 1) lack of spatial heterogeneity in ESM predictions, (2) differences in assumptions concerning environmental controls, and (3) the absence of pedogenic processes in ESM model structures. Our results suggest that efforts to incorporate these factors in F.SMs should reduce current uncertainties associated with ESM predictions of carbon-climate feedbacks.« less

1/f neural noise and electrophysiological indices of contextual prediction in aging.

PubMed

Dave, S; Brothers, T A; Swaab, T Y

2018-07-15

Prediction of upcoming words during reading has been suggested to enhance the efficiency of discourse processing. Emerging models have postulated that predictive mechanisms require synchronous firing of neural networks, but to date, this relationship has been investigated primarily through oscillatory activity in narrow frequency bands. A recently-developed measure proposed to reflect broadband neural activity - and thereby synchronous neuronal firing - is 1/f neural noise extracted from EEG spectral power. Previous research has indicated that this measure of 1/f neural noise changes across the lifespan, and these neural changes predict age-related behavioral impairments in visual working memory. Using a cross-sectional sample of young and older adults, we examined age-related changes in 1/f neural noise and whether this measure predicted ERP correlates of successful lexical prediction during discourse comprehension. 1/f neural noise across two different language tasks revealed high within-subject correlations, indicating that this measure can provide a reliable index of individualized patterns of neural activation. In addition to age, 1/f noise was a significant predictor of N400 effects of successful lexical prediction; however, noise did not mediate age-related declines in other ERP effects. We discuss broader implications of these findings for theories of predictive processing, as well as potential applications of 1/f noise across research populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The role of stress hormones in the relationship between resting blood pressure and coagulation activity.

PubMed

Wirtz, Petra H; Ehlert, Ulrike; Emini, Luljeta; Rüdisüli, Katharina; Groessbauer, Sara; Mausbach, Brent T; von Känel, Roland

2006-12-01

Systemic hypertension confers a hypercoagulable state. We hypothesized that resting mean blood pressure (MBP) interacts with stress hormones in predicting coagulation activity at rest and with acute mental stress. We measured plasma clotting factor VII activity (FVII:C), FVIII:C, fibrinogen, D-dimer, epinephrine and norepinephrine, and saliva cortisol in 42 otherwise healthy normotensive and hypertensive medication-free men (mean age 43 +/- 14 years) at rest, immediately after stress, and twice during 60 min of recovery from stress. At rest, the MBP-by-epinephrine interaction predicted FVII:C (beta = -0.33, P < 0.04) and D-dimer (beta = 0.26, P < 0.05), and the MBP-by-cortisol interaction predicted D-dimer (beta = 0.43, P = 0.001), all independent of age and body mass index (BMI). Resting norepinephrine predicted fibrinogen (beta = 0.42, P < 0.01) and D-dimer (beta = 0.37, P < 0.03), both independent of MBP. MBP predicted FVIII:C change from rest to immediately post-stress independent of epinephrine (beta = -0.37, P < 0.03) and norepinephrine (beta = -0.38, P < 0.02). Cortisol change predicted FVIII:C change (beta = -0.30, P < 0.05) independent of age, BMI and MBP. Integrated norepinephrine change from rest to recovery (area under the curve, AUC) predicted D-dimer AUC (beta = 0.34, P = 0.04) independent of MBP. The MBP-by-epinephrine AUC interaction predicted FVII:C AUC (beta = 0.28) and fibrinogen AUC (beta = -0.30), and the MBP-by-norepinephrine AUC interaction predicted FVIII:C AUC (beta = -0.28), all with borderline significance (Ps < 0.09) and independent of age and BMI. MBP significantly altered the association between stress hormones and coagulation activity at rest and, with borderline significance, across the entire stress and recovery interval. Independent of MBP, catecholamines were associated with procoagulant effects and cortisol reactivity dampened the acute procoagulant stress response.

Our Changing Planet: The FY 1993 US Global Change Research Program. A report by the Committee on Earth and Environmental Sciences, a supplement to the US President's fiscal year 1993 budget

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1992-01-01

The U.S. Global Change Reasearch Program (USGCRP) was established as a Presidential initiative in the FY-1990 Budget to help develop sound national and international policies related to global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The USGCRP is implemented through a priority-driven scientific research agenda that is designed to be integrated, comprehensive, and multidisciplinary. It is designed explicitly to address scientific uncertainties in such areas as climate change, ozone depletion, changes in terrestrial and marine productivity, global water and energy cycles, sea level changes, the impact of global changes on human health and activities, and the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Earth system. The USGCRP addresses three parallel but interconnected streams of activity: documenting global change (observations); enhancing understanding of key processes (process research); and predicting global and regional environmental change (integrated modeling and prediction).

Hope-inspiring therapeutic relationships, professional expectations and social inclusion for young people with psychosis.

PubMed

Berry, Clio; Greenwood, Kathryn

2015-10-01

Personal recovery accounts suggest that a positive therapeutic relationship with an optimistic mental health professional may facilitate social inclusion. However, little empirical research has investigated the role of the therapeutic relationship in social outcomes or explored potential mechanisms of change within community psychosis care. This study investigated the direct predictive associations of the therapeutic relationship and professional expectancies for social inclusion and vocational activity for young people with psychosis, and indirect associations through hopefulness. Young people with psychosis and their main mental health professional (n=51 dyads) participated across two time points. Measures of therapeutic relationships, professional expectancies, and vocational activity were obtained at baseline. Measures of hopefulness, social inclusion and vocational activity were obtained at follow-up. Direct and indirect associations between variables were analysed using path modelling. Directed path models were consistent with a positive therapeutic relationship and positive professional expectancies predicting social inclusion and vocational activity through mediation by increased patient domain-specific hopefulness. The professional-rated therapeutic relationship more directly predicts change in vocational activity status. Change in vocational activity status predicts increased patient hopefulness. The therapeutic relationship between professionals and young people with psychosis appears hope-inspiring and important to patients' social inclusion and vocational outcomes. Vocational activity may produce reciprocal gains in hopefulness. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

USGS global change research

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

1995-01-01

The Earth's global environment--its interrelated climate, land, oceans, fresh water, atmospheric and ecological systems-has changed continually throughout Earth history. Human activities are having ever-increasing effects on these systems. Sustaining our environment as population and demands for resources increase requires a sound understanding of the causes and cycles of natural change and the effects of human activities on the Earth's environmental systems. The U.S. Global Change Research Program was authorized by Congress in 1989 to provide the scientific understanding necessary to develop national and international policies concerning global environmental issues, particularly global climate change. The program addresses questions such as: what factors determine global climate; have humans already begun to change the global climate; will the climate of the future be very different; what will be the effects of climate change; and how much confidence do we have in our predictions? Through understanding, we can improve our capability to predict change, reduce the adverse effects of human activities, and plan strategies for adapting to natural and human-induced environmental change.

Neural activity predicts attitude change in cognitive dissonance.

PubMed

van Veen, Vincent; Krug, Marie K; Schooler, Jonathan W; Carter, Cameron S

2009-11-01

When our actions conflict with our prior attitudes, we often change our attitudes to be more consistent with our actions. This phenomenon, known as cognitive dissonance, is considered to be one of the most influential theories in psychology. However, the neural basis of this phenomenon is unknown. Using a Solomon four-group design, we scanned participants with functional MRI while they argued that the uncomfortable scanner environment was nevertheless a pleasant experience. We found that cognitive dissonance engaged the dorsal anterior cingulate cortex and anterior insula; furthermore, we found that the activation of these regions tightly predicted participants' subsequent attitude change. These effects were not observed in a control group. Our findings elucidate the neural representation of cognitive dissonance, and support the role of the anterior cingulate cortex in detecting cognitive conflict and the neural prediction of attitude change.

Chronobiology of interspecific interactions in a changing world.

PubMed

Kronfeld-Schor, Noga; Visser, Marcel E; Salis, Lucia; van Gils, Jan A

2017-11-19

Animals should time activities, such as foraging, migration and reproduction, as well as seasonal physiological adaptation, in a way that maximizes fitness. The fitness outcome of such activities depends largely on their interspecific interactions; the temporal overlap with other species determines when they should be active in order to maximize their encounters with food and to minimize their encounters with predators, competitors and parasites. To cope with the constantly changing, but predictable structure of the environment, organisms have evolved internal biological clocks, which are synchronized mainly by light, the most predictable and reliable environmental cue (but which can be masked by other variables), which enable them to anticipate and prepare for predicted changes in the timing of the species they interact with, on top of responding to them directly. Here, we review examples where the internal timing system is used to predict interspecific interactions, and how these interactions affect the internal timing system and activity patterns. We then ask how plastic these mechanisms are, how this plasticity differs between and within species and how this variability in plasticity affects interspecific interactions in a changing world, in which light, the major synchronizer of the biological clock, is no longer a reliable cue owing to the rapidly changing climate, the use of artificial light and urbanization.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wild clocks: integrating chronobiology and ecology to understand timekeeping in free-living animals'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Model of land cover change prediction in West Java using cellular automata-Markov chain (CA-MC)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Virtriana, Riantini; Sumarto, Irawan; Deliar, Albertus; Pasaribu, Udjianna S.; Taufik, Moh.

2015-04-01

Land is a fundamental factor that closely related to economic growth and supports the needs of human life. Land-use activity is a major issue and challenge for country planners. The cause of change in land use type activity may be due to socio economic development or due to changes in the environment or may be due to both. In an effort to understand the phenomenon of land cover changes, can be approached through land cover change modelling. Based on the facts and data contained, West Java has a high economic activity that will have an impact on land cover change. CA-MC is a model that used to determine the statistical change probabilistic for each of land cover type from land cover data at different time periods. CA-MC is able to provide the output of land cover type that should occurred. Results from a CA-MC modelling in predicting land cover changes showed an accuracy rate of 95.42%.

Promoting Conceptual Change in First Year Students' Understanding of Evaporation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costu, Bayram; Ayas, Alipasa; Niaz, Mansoor

2010-01-01

We constructed the PDEODE (Predict-Discuss-Explain-Observe-Discuss-Explain) teaching strategy, a variant of the classical POE (Predict-Observe-Explain) activity, to promote conceptual change, and investigated its effectiveness on student understanding of the evaporation concept. The sample consisted of 52 first year students in a primary science…

GABA(A) receptors in visual and auditory cortex and neural activity changes during basic visual stimulation.

PubMed

Qin, Pengmin; Duncan, Niall W; Wiebking, Christine; Gravel, Paul; Lyttelton, Oliver; Hayes, Dave J; Verhaeghe, Jeroen; Kostikov, Alexey; Schirrmacher, Ralf; Reader, Andrew J; Northoff, Georg

2012-01-01

Recent imaging studies have demonstrated that levels of resting γ-aminobutyric acid (GABA) in the visual cortex predict the degree of stimulus-induced activity in the same region. These studies have used the presentation of discrete visual stimulus; the change from closed eyes to open also represents a simple visual stimulus, however, and has been shown to induce changes in local brain activity and in functional connectivity between regions. We thus aimed to investigate the role of the GABA system, specifically GABA(A) receptors, in the changes in brain activity between the eyes closed (EC) and eyes open (EO) state in order to provide detail at the receptor level to complement previous studies of GABA concentrations. We conducted an fMRI study involving two different modes of the change from EC to EO: an EO and EC block design, allowing the modeling of the haemodynamic response, followed by longer periods of EC and EO to allow the measuring of functional connectivity. The same subjects also underwent [(18)F]Flumazenil PET to measure GABA(A) receptor binding potentials. It was demonstrated that the local-to-global ratio of GABA(A) receptor binding potential in the visual cortex predicted the degree of changes in neural activity from EC to EO. This same relationship was also shown in the auditory cortex. Furthermore, the local-to-global ratio of GABA(A) receptor binding potential in the visual cortex also predicted the change in functional connectivity between the visual and auditory cortex from EC to EO. These findings contribute to our understanding of the role of GABA(A) receptors in stimulus-induced neural activity in local regions and in inter-regional functional connectivity.

Modelling of land use change in Indramayu District, West Java Province

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Handayani, L. D. W.; Tejaningrum, M. A.; Damrah, F.

2017-01-01

Indramayu District into a strategic area for a stopover and overseas from East Java area because Indramayu District passed the north coast main lane, which is the first as the economic lifeblood of the Java Island. Indramayu District is part of mainstream economic Java pathways so that physical development of the area and population density as well as community activities grew by leaps and bounds. Growth acceleration raised the level of land use change. Land use change and population activities in coastal area would reduce the carrying capacity and impact on environmental quality. This research aim to analyse landuse change of years 2000 and 2011 in Indramayu District. Using this land use change map, we can predict the condition of landuse change of year 2022 in Indramayu District. Cellular Automata Markov (Markov CA) Method is used to create a spatial model of land use changes. The results of this study are predictive of land use in 2022 and the suitability with Spatial Plan (RTRW). A settlement increase predicted to continue in the future the designation of the land according to the spatial plan should be maintained.

Prediction of Physical Activity Level Using Processes of Change From the Transtheoretical Model: Experiential, Behavioral, or an Interaction Effect?

PubMed

Romain, Ahmed Jérôme; Horwath, Caroline; Bernard, Paquito

2018-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to compare prediction of physical activity (PA) by experiential or behavioral processes of change (POCs) or an interaction between both types of processes. A cross-sectional study. This study was conducted using an online questionnaire. A total of 394 participants (244 women, 150 men), with a mean age of 35.12 ± 12.04 years and a mean body mass index of 22.97 ± 4.25 kg/m 2 were included. Participants completed the Processes of Change, Stages of Change questionnaires, and the International Physical Activity Questionnaire to evaluate self-reported PA level (total, vigorous, and moderate PA). Hierarchical multiple regression models were used to test the prediction of PA level. For both total PA (β = .261; P < .001) and vigorous PA (β = .297; P < .001), only behavioral POCs were a significant predictor. Regarding moderate PA, only the interaction between experiential and behavioral POCs was a significant predictor (β = .123; P = .017). Our results provide confirmation that behavioral processes are most prominent in PA behavior. Nevertheless, it is of interest to note that the interaction between experiential and behavioral POCs was the only element predicting moderate PA level. Experiential processes were not associated with PA level.

Prediction of movement intention using connectivity within motor-related network: An electrocorticography study.

PubMed

Kang, Byeong Keun; Kim, June Sic; Ryun, Seokyun; Chung, Chun Kee

2018-01-01

Most brain-machine interface (BMI) studies have focused only on the active state of which a BMI user performs specific movement tasks. Therefore, models developed for predicting movements were optimized only for the active state. The models may not be suitable in the idle state during resting. This potential maladaptation could lead to a sudden accident or unintended movement resulting from prediction error. Prediction of movement intention is important to develop a more efficient and reasonable BMI system which could be selectively operated depending on the user's intention. Physical movement is performed through the serial change of brain states: idle, planning, execution, and recovery. The motor networks in the primary motor cortex and the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex are involved in these movement states. Neuronal communication differs between the states. Therefore, connectivity may change depending on the states. In this study, we investigated the temporal dynamics of connectivity in dorsolateral prefrontal cortex and primary motor cortex to predict movement intention. Movement intention was successfully predicted by connectivity dynamics which may reflect changes in movement states. Furthermore, dorsolateral prefrontal cortex is crucial in predicting movement intention to which primary motor cortex contributes. These results suggest that brain connectivity is an excellent approach in predicting movement intention.

Mood and the market: can press reports of investors' mood predict stock prices?

PubMed

Cohen-Charash, Yochi; Scherbaum, Charles A; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D; Staw, Barry M

2013-01-01

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices.

Mood and the Market: Can Press Reports of Investors' Mood Predict Stock Prices?

PubMed Central

Scherbaum, Charles A.; Kammeyer-Mueller, John D.

2013-01-01

We examined whether press reports on the collective mood of investors can predict changes in stock prices. We collected data on the use of emotion words in newspaper reports on traders' affect, coded these emotion words according to their location on an affective circumplex in terms of pleasantness and activation level, and created indices of collective mood for each trading day. Then, by using time series analyses, we examined whether these mood indices, depicting investors' emotion on a given trading day, could predict the next day's opening price of the stock market. The strongest findings showed that activated pleasant mood predicted increases in NASDAQ prices, while activated unpleasant mood predicted decreases in NASDAQ prices. We conclude that both valence and activation levels of collective mood are important in predicting trend continuation in stock prices. PMID:24015202

Modeling behavioral thermoregulation in a climate change sentinel.

PubMed

Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Mathewson, Paul D; Jones, Gavin M; Kearney, Michael R; Porter, Warren P

2015-12-01

When possible, many species will shift in elevation or latitude in response to rising temperatures. However, before such shifts occur, individuals will first tolerate environmental change and then modify their behavior to maintain heat balance. Behavioral thermoregulation allows animals a range of climatic tolerances and makes predicting geographic responses under future warming scenarios challenging. Because behavioral modification may reduce an individual's fecundity by, for example, limiting foraging time and thus caloric intake, we must consider the range of behavioral options available for thermoregulation to accurately predict climate change impacts on individual species. To date, few studies have identified mechanistic links between an organism's daily activities and the need to thermoregulate. We used a biophysical model, Niche Mapper, to mechanistically model microclimate conditions and thermoregulatory behavior for a temperature-sensitive mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps). Niche Mapper accurately simulated microclimate conditions, as well as empirical metabolic chamber data for a range of fur properties, animal sizes, and environmental parameters. Niche Mapper predicted pikas would be behaviorally constrained because of the need to thermoregulate during the hottest times of the day. We also showed that pikas at low elevations could receive energetic benefits by being smaller in size and maintaining summer pelage during longer stretches of the active season under a future warming scenario. We observed pika behavior for 288 h in Glacier National Park, Montana, and thermally characterized their rocky, montane environment. We found that pikas were most active when temperatures were cooler, and at sites characterized by high elevations and north-facing slopes. Pikas became significantly less active across a suite of behaviors in the field when temperatures surpassed 20°C, which supported a metabolic threshold predicted by Niche Mapper. In general, mechanistic predictions and empirical observations were congruent. This research is unique in providing both an empirical and mechanistic description of the effects of temperature on a mammalian sentinel of climate change, the American pika. Our results suggest that previously underinvestigated characteristics, specifically fur properties and body size, may play critical roles in pika populations' response to climate change. We also demonstrate the potential importance of considering behavioral thermoregulation and microclimate variability when predicting animal responses to climate change.

Participant adherence indicatiors predict changes in blood pressure, anthropometric measures, and self-reported physical activity in a lifestyle intervention: HUB City Steps

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Purpose. To evaluate several adherence indicators, created using 2 measures, separately and in combination, for predicting health outcome changes. Design. Non-experimental with pre-post measures. Setting. Mid-sized city in southern region of United States. Subjects. 269 primarily African-America...

Towards a predictive understanding of belowground process responses to climate change: have we moved any closer?

Treesearch

Elise Pendall; Lindsey Rustad; Josh Schimel

2008-01-01

Belowground processes, including root production and exudation, microbial activity and community dynamics, and biogeochemical cycling interact to help regulate climate change. Feedbacks associated with these processes, such as warming-enhanced decomposition rates, give rise to major uncertainties in predictions of future climate. Uncertainties associated with these...

Review of auditory subliminal psychodynamic activation experiments.

PubMed

Fudin, R; Benjamin, C

1991-12-01

Subliminal psychodynamic activation experiments using auditory stimuli have yielded only a modicum of support for the contention that such activation produces predictable behavioral changes. Problems in many auditory subliminal psychodynamic activation experiments indicate that those predictions have not been tested adequately. The auditory mode of presentation, however, has several methodological advantages over the visual one, the method used in the vast majority of subliminal psychodynamic activation experiments. Consequently, it should be considered in subsequent research in this area.

Husbands’ and Wives’ Physical Activity and Depressive Symptoms: Longitudinal Findings from the Cardiovascular Health Study

PubMed Central

Monin, Joan K.; Levy, Becca; Chen, Baibing; Fried, Terri; Stahl, Sarah T.; Schulz, Richard; Doyle, Margaret; Kershaw, Trace

2015-01-01

Background When examining older adults’ health behaviors and psychological health it is important to consider the social context. Purpose To examine in older adult marriages whether each spouse’s physical activity predicted changes in their own (actor effects) and their partner’s (partner effects) depressive symptoms. Gender differences were also examined. Method Each spouse within 1,260 married couples (at baseline) in the Cardiovascular Health Study completed self-report measures at wave 1 (1989–1990), wave 3 (1992–1993), and wave 7 (1996–1997). Dyadic path analyses were performed. Results Husbands’ physical activity significantly predicted own decreased depressive symptoms (actor effect). For both spouses, own physical activity did not significantly predict the spouse’s depressive symptoms (partner effects). However, husbands’ physical activity and depressive symptoms predicted wives’ physical activity and depressive symptoms (partner effects), respectively. Depressive symptoms did not predict physical activity. Conclusion Findings suggest that husbands’ physical activity is particularly influential for older married couples’ psychological health. PMID:25868508

Physical activity after surgery for severe obesity: the role of exercise cognitions.

PubMed

Wouters, Eveline J; Larsen, Junilla K; Zijlstra, Hanna; van Ramshorst, Bert; Geenen, Rinie

2011-12-01

Physical activity after bariatric surgery is associated with sustained weight loss and improved quality of life. Some bariatric patients engage insufficiently in physical activity. This may be due to exercise cognitions, i.e., specific beliefs about benefits of and barriers to physical exercise. The aim of this study was to examine whether and to what extent both physical activity and exercise cognitions changed at 1 and 2 years post-surgery and whether exercise cognitions predict physical activity. Forty-two bariatric patients (38 women, 4 men; mean age 38 ± 8 years, mean body mass index prior to surgery 47 ± 6 kg/m(2)) filled out self-report instruments to examine physical activity and exercise cognitions pre- and post-surgery. A large increase in physical activity and favorable changes in exercise cognitions were observed after surgery, viz. a decrease of fear of injury and embarrassment and an increase of the perception of exercise benefits and confidence in exercising. Perceiving less exercise benefits and having less confidence in exercising before surgery predicted less physical activity 2 years after surgery. High fear of injury 1 year after surgery predicted less physical activity 2 years after surgery. After bariatric surgery, favorable changes in physical activity and beliefs about the benefits and barriers of exercising are observed. Our results suggest that targeting exercise cognitions before and after surgery might be relevant to improve physical activity.

Stereo Reconstruction Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-06-01

be registered on the agenda. At each step or analysis, the action with the highest score is executed and the database is changed. The agenda controls...activation of production rules according to changes in the database . The agenda is updated whenever the database is changed. Each time, the number of...views of an object. Total prediction has combinatorial complexity. For a polyhedron with n distinct faces, there are 2" views. Instead, ACRONYM predicts

Situational motivation and perceived intensity: their interaction in predicting changes in positive affect from physical activity.

PubMed

Guérin, Eva; Fortier, Michelle S

2012-01-01

There is evidence that affective experiences surrounding physical activity can contribute to the proper self-regulation of an active lifestyle. Motivation toward physical activity, as portrayed by self-determination theory, has been linked to positive affect, as has the intensity of physical activity, especially of a preferred nature. The purpose of this experimental study was to examine the interaction between situational motivation and intensity [i.e., ratings of perceived exertion (RPE)] in predicting changes in positive affect following an acute bout of preferred physical activity, namely, running. Fourty-one female runners engaged in a 30-minute self-paced treadmill run in a laboratory context. Situational motivation for running, pre- and post-running positive affect, and RPE were assessed via validated self-report questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed a significant interaction effect between RPE and introjection (P < .05) but not between RPE and identified regulation or intrinsic motivation. At low levels of introjection, the influence of RPE on the change in positive affect was considerable, with higher RPE ratings being associated with greater increases in positive affect. The implications of the findings in light of SDT principles as well as the potential contingencies between the regulations and RPE in predicting positive affect among women are discussed.

Induced changes in island fox (Urocyon littoralis) activity do not mitigate the extinction threat posed by a novel predator.

PubMed

Hudgens, Brian R; Garcelon, David K

2011-03-01

Prey response to novel predators influences the impacts on prey populations of introduced predators, bio-control efforts, and predator range expansion. Predicting the impacts of novel predators on native prey requires an understanding of both predator avoidance strategies and their potential to reduce predation risk. We examine the response of island foxes (Urocyon littoralis) to invasion by golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos). Foxes reduced daytime activity and increased night time activity relative to eagle-naïve foxes. Individual foxes reverted toward diurnal tendencies following eagle removal efforts. We quantified the potential population impact of reduced diurnality by modeling island fox population dynamics. Our model predicted an annual population decline similar to what was observed following golden eagle invasion and predicted that the observed 11% reduction in daytime activity would not reduce predation risk sufficiently to reduce extinction risk. The limited effect of this behaviorally plastic predator avoidance strategy highlights the importance of linking behavioral change to population dynamics for predicting the impact of novel predators on resident prey populations.

The future of soil invertebrate communities in polar regions: different climate change responses in the Arctic and Antarctic?

PubMed

Nielsen, Uffe N; Wall, Diana H

2013-03-01

The polar regions are experiencing rapid climate change with implications for terrestrial ecosystems. Here, despite limited knowledge, we make some early predictions on soil invertebrate community responses to predicted twenty-first century climate change. Geographic and environmental differences suggest that climate change responses will differ between the Arctic and Antarctic. We predict significant, but different, belowground community changes in both regions. This change will be driven mainly by vegetation type changes in the Arctic, while communities in Antarctica will respond to climate amelioration directly and indirectly through changes in microbial community composition and activity, and the development of, and/or changes in, plant communities. Climate amelioration is likely to allow a greater influx of non-native species into both the Arctic and Antarctic promoting landscape scale biodiversity change. Non-native competitive species could, however, have negative effects on local biodiversity particularly in the Arctic where the communities are already species rich. Species ranges will shift in both areas as the climate changes potentially posing a problem for endemic species in the Arctic where options for northward migration are limited. Greater soil biotic activity may move the Arctic towards a trajectory of being a substantial carbon source, while Antarctica could become a carbon sink. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

Changes in need satisfaction and motivation orientation as predictors of psychological and behavioural outcomes in exercise referral.

PubMed

Rahman, Rachel Jane; Thogersen-Ntoumani, Cecilie; Thatcher, Joanne; Doust, Jonathan

2011-11-01

Employing Self-Determination Theory (Deci & Ryan, 1985) as a theoretical framework, this study examined psychological need satisfaction and motivational regulations as predictors of psychological and behavioural outcomes in exercise referral (ER). ER patients (N = 293; mean age 54.49) completed the measures of motivational regulations, psychological need satisfaction, health-related quality of life, life satisfaction, anxiety, depression and physical activity at entry, exit and 6 months following the end of a supervised exercise programme. Change in (Δ) intrinsic motivation during the scheme significantly predicted adherence and Δ habitual physical activity. Δ psychological need satisfaction from entry to exit significantly predicted Δ habitual physical activity from exit to 6-month follow-up. Δ psychological need satisfaction significantly predicted Δ motivational regulation and Δ psychological outcomes. Contrary to expectations, Δ self-determined regulation did not significantly predict Δ psychological outcomes during the structured part of the scheme, however, it did significantly predict Δ in psychological outcomes from exit to 6-month follow-up. These findings expand on cross-sectional research to demonstrate that psychological need satisfaction during supervised ER longitudinally predicts motivational regulation and psychological outcomes up to 6 months after a structured programme.

Body size and activity times mediate mammalian responses to climate change.

PubMed

McCain, Christy M; King, Sarah R B

2014-06-01

Model predictions of extinction risks from anthropogenic climate change are dire, but still overly simplistic. To reliably predict at-risk species we need to know which species are currently responding, which are not, and what traits are mediating the responses. For mammals, we have yet to identify overarching physiological, behavioral, or biogeographic traits determining species' responses to climate change, but they must exist. To date, 73 mammal species in North America and eight additional species worldwide have been assessed for responses to climate change, including local extirpations, range contractions and shifts, decreased abundance, phenological shifts, morphological or genetic changes. Only 52% of those species have responded as expected, 7% responded opposite to expectations, and the remaining 41% have not responded. Which mammals are and are not responding to climate change is mediated predominantly by body size and activity times (phylogenetic multivariate logistic regressions, P < 0.0001). Large mammals respond more, for example, an elk is 27 times more likely to respond to climate change than a shrew. Obligate diurnal and nocturnal mammals are more than twice as likely to respond as mammals with flexible activity times (P < 0.0001). Among the other traits examined, species with higher latitudinal and elevational ranges were more likely to respond to climate change in some analyses, whereas hibernation, heterothermy, burrowing, nesting, and study location did not influence responses. These results indicate that some mammal species can behaviorally escape climate change whereas others cannot, analogous to paleontology's climate sheltering hypothesis. Including body size and activity flexibility traits into future extinction risk forecasts should substantially improve their predictive utility for conservation and management. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Caregiver Confidence: Does It Predict Changes in Disability among Elderly Home Care Recipients?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Lydia W.; McLaughlin, Sara J.

2012-01-01

Purpose of the study: The primary aim of this investigation was to determine whether caregiver confidence in their care recipients' functional capabilities predicts changes in the performance of activities of daily living (ADL) among elderly home care recipients. A secondary aim was to explore how caregiver confidence and care recipient functional…

Anterior cingulate taste activation predicts ad libitum intake of sweet and savory drinks in healthy, normal-weight men.

PubMed

Spetter, Maartje S; de Graaf, Cees; Viergever, Max A; Smeets, Paul A M

2012-04-01

After food consumption, the motivation to eat (wanting) decreases and associated brain reward responses change. Wanting-related brain responses and how these are affected by consumption of specific foods are ill documented. Moreover, the predictive value of food-induced brain responses for subsequent consumption has not been assessed. We aimed to determine the effects of consumption of sweet and savory foods on taste activation in the brain and to assess how far taste activation can predict subsequent ad libitum intake. Fifteen healthy men (age: 27 ± 2 y, BMI: 22.0 ± 1.5 kg/m2) participated in a randomized crossover trial. After a >3-h fast, participants were scanned with the use of functional MRI before and after consumption of a sweet or savory preload (0.35 L fruit or tomato juice) on two occasions. After the scans, the preload juice was consumed ad libitum. During scanning, participants tasted the juices and rated their pleasantness. Striatal taste activation decreased after juice consumption, independent of pleasantness. Sweet and savory taste activation were not differentially affected by consumption. Anterior cingulate taste activation predicted subsequent ad libitum intake of sweet (r = -0.78; P < 0.001(uncorrected)) as well as savory juice (r = -0.70; P < 0.001(uncorrected)). In conclusion, we showed how taste activation of brain reward areas changes following food consumption. These changes may be associated with the food's physiological relevance. Further, the results suggest that anterior cingulate taste activation reflects food-specific satiety. This extends our understanding of the representation of food specific-appetite in the brain and shows that neuroimaging may provide objective and more accurate measures of food motivation than self-report measures.

Testing a Longitudinal Integrated Self-Efficacy and Self-Determination Theory Model for Physical Activity Post-Cardiac Rehabilitation

PubMed Central

Sweet, Shane N.; Fortier, Michelle S.; Strachan, Shaelyn M.; Blanchard, Chris M.; Boulay, Pierre

2014-01-01

Self-determination theory and self-efficacy theory are prominent theories in the physical activity literature, and studies have begun integrating their concepts. Sweet, Fortier, Strachan and Blanchard (2012) have integrated these two theories in a cross-sectional study. Therefore, this study sought to test a longitudinal integrated model to predict physical activity at the end of a 4-month cardiac rehabilitation program based on theory, research and Sweet et al.’s cross-sectional model. Participants from two cardiac rehabilitation programs (N=109) answered validated self-report questionnaires at baseline, two and four months. Data were analyzed using Amos to assess the path analysis and model fit. Prior to integration, perceived competence and self-efficacy were combined, and labeled as confidence. After controlling for 2-month physical activity and cardiac rehabilitation site, no motivational variables significantly predicted residual change in 4-month physical activity. Although confidence at two months did not predict residual change in 4-month physical activity, it had a strong positive relationship with 2-month physical activity (β=0.30, P<0.001). The overall model retained good fit indices. In conclusion, results diverged from theoretical predictions of physical activity, but self-determination and self-efficacy theory were still partially supported. Because the model had good fit, this study demonstrated that theoretical integration is feasible. PMID:26973926

Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance

PubMed Central

Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M.; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

2015-01-01

We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus’ onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as “executive control” is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching. PMID:26379568

Temporal prediction errors modulate task-switching performance.

PubMed

Limongi, Roberto; Silva, Angélica M; Góngora-Costa, Begoña

2015-01-01

We have previously shown that temporal prediction errors (PEs, the differences between the expected and the actual stimulus' onset times) modulate the effective connectivity between the anterior cingulate cortex and the right anterior insular cortex (rAI), causing the activity of the rAI to decrease. The activity of the rAI is associated with efficient performance under uncertainty (e.g., changing a prepared behavior when a change demand is not expected), which leads to hypothesize that temporal PEs might disrupt behavior-change performance under uncertainty. This hypothesis has not been tested at a behavioral level. In this work, we evaluated this hypothesis within the context of task switching and concurrent temporal predictions. Our participants performed temporal predictions while observing one moving ball striking a stationary ball which bounced off with a variable temporal gap. Simultaneously, they performed a simple color comparison task. In some trials, a change signal made the participants change their behaviors. Performance accuracy decreased as a function of both the temporal PE and the delay. Explaining these results without appealing to ad hoc concepts such as "executive control" is a challenge for cognitive neuroscience. We provide a predictive coding explanation. We hypothesize that exteroceptive and proprioceptive minimization of PEs would converge in a fronto-basal ganglia network which would include the rAI. Both temporal gaps (or uncertainty) and temporal PEs would drive and modulate this network respectively. Whereas the temporal gaps would drive the activity of the rAI, the temporal PEs would modulate the endogenous excitatory connections of the fronto-striatal network. We conclude that in the context of perceptual uncertainty, the system is not able to minimize perceptual PE, causing the ongoing behavior to finalize and, in consequence, disrupting task switching.

Risky business: the effects of an individualized health information intervention on health risk perceptions and leisure time physical activity among people with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Bassett, Rebecca L; Ginis, Kathleen A Martin

2011-07-01

Individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) are at an increased risk for inactivity-related diseases such as heart disease, type 2 diabetes, and obesity. According to protection motivation theory, perceptions of disease risk predict motivation to engage in health-protective behaviors such as leisure time physical activity (LTPA). The purposes of this study were to (1) examine changes in perceived risk for disease following an individualized health information intervention and (2) examine changes in perceived risk for disease as a predictor of changes in LTPA. Perceived risk for disease and LTPA were measured at baseline among 62 people with SCI. Objective disease risk information (e.g., waist circumference, BMI, blood glucose) was collected and individual risk information was mailed to each participant. Perceived risk for disease and LTPA were remeasured 1 and 2 weeks following receipt of individualized information, respectively. Changes in perceived risk of heart disease and obesity were dependent on objective risk status. There were no significant changes in perceived risk of diabetes. Changes in perceived risk of heart disease negatively predicted, while changes in perceived risk of diabetes positively predicted, changes in LTPA. Changes in obesity did not significantly predict changes in LTPA. Among people with SCI, individual health-risk information can change perceptions of disease risk. Increased perceived risk of diabetes may motivate LTPA, while increased perceived risk of heart disease may encourage avoidance behavior regarding LTPA. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing Predictions of the Interactive Activation Model in Recovery from Aphasia after Treatment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jokel, Regina; Rochon, Elizabeth; Leonard, Carol

2004-01-01

This paper presents preliminary results of pre- and post-treatment error analysis from an aphasic patient with anomia. The Interactive Activation (IA) model of word production (Dell, Schwartz, Martin, Saffran, & Gagnon, 1997) is utilized to make predictions about the anticipated changes on a picture naming task and to explain emerging patterns.…

Neural activity to a partner's facial expression predicts self-regulation after conflict

PubMed Central

Hooker, Christine I.; Gyurak, Anett; Verosky, Sara; Miyakawa, Asako; Ayduk, Özlem

2009-01-01

Introduction Failure to self-regulate after an interpersonal conflict can result in persistent negative mood and maladaptive behaviors. Research indicates that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) activity is related to the regulation of emotional experience in response to lab-based affective challenges, such as viewing emotional pictures. This suggests that compromised LPFC function may be a risk-factor for mood and behavior problems after an interpersonal stressor. However, it remains unclear whether LPFC activity to a lab-based affective challenge predicts self-regulation in real-life. Method We investigated whether LPFC activity to a lab-based affective challenge (negative facial expressions of a partner) predicts self-regulation after a real-life affective challenge (interpersonal conflict). During an fMRI scan, healthy, adult participants in committed, dating relationships (N = 27) viewed positive, negative, and neutral facial expressions of their partners. In an online daily-diary, participants reported conflict occurrence, level of negative mood, rumination, and substance-use. Results LPFC activity in response to the lab-based affective challenge predicted self-regulation after an interpersonal conflict in daily life. When there was no interpersonal conflict, LPFC activity was not related to the change in mood or behavior the next day. However, when an interpersonal conflict did occur, ventral LPFC (VLPFC) activity predicted the change in mood and behavior the next day, such that lower VLPFC activity was related to higher levels of negative mood, rumination, and substance-use. Conclusions Low LPFC function may be a vulnerability and high LPFC function may be a protective factor for the development of mood and behavior problems after an interpersonal stressor. PMID:20004365

Hippocampal and posterior parietal contributions to developmental increases in visual short-term memory capacity.

PubMed

von Allmen, David Yoh; Wurmitzer, Karoline; Klaver, Peter

2014-10-01

Developmental increases in visual short-term memory (VSTM) capacity have been associated with changes in attention processing limitations and changes in neural activity within neural networks including the posterior parietal cortex (PPC). A growing body of evidence suggests that the hippocampus plays a role in VSTM, but it is unknown whether the hippocampus contributes to the capacity increase across development. We investigated the functional development of the hippocampus and PPC in 57 children, adolescents and adults (age 8-27 years) who performed a visuo-spatial change detection task. A negative relationship between age and VSTM related activity was found in the right posterior hippocampus that was paralleled by a positive age-activity relationship in the right PPC. In the posterior hippocampus, VSTM related activity predicted individual capacity in children, whereas neural activity in the right anterior hippocampus predicted individual capacity in adults. The findings provide first evidence that VSTM development is supported by an integrated neural network that involves hippocampal and posterior parietal regions.

Predicting Changes in Physical Activity among Adolescents: The Role of Self-Efficacy, Intention, Action Planning and Coping Planning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Araujo-Soares, Vera; McIntyre, Teresa; Sniehotta, Falko F.

2009-01-01

This paper aims to test the direct predictors of the theory of planned behaviour (TPB), action planning and coping planning as predictors of changes in physical activity (PA) in 157 adolescents (mean age: 12). TPB measures, the Action Planning and Coping Planning Scales (APCPS) and the International Physical Activity Questionnaires were measured…

Goal setting frequency and the use of behavioral strategies related to diet and physical activity.

PubMed

Nothwehr, Faryle; Yang, Jingzhen

2007-08-01

Goal setting is an effective way to focus attention on behavior change. Theoretically, frequency of goal setting may indicate the level of commitment to diet and physical activity behavior change. Yet, little is known about the association between goal setting frequency and use of specific diet or physical activity-related strategies. This study examines whether changes in goal setting frequency predict changes in use of behavioral strategies over time, controlling for baseline strategy use, demographics and whether a person was trying to lose weight. Data are from a baseline and 1-year follow-up survey of adults in rural Iowa (n = 385). Overall, goal setting frequency was positively associated with use of the strategies measured, at baseline and overtime. Frequent goal setting that is focused specifically on diet or physical activity was more predictive of using dietary or physical activity strategies, respectively, than goal setting focused on weight loss overall. The study provides empirical support for what has been assumed theoretically, that is, frequent goal setting for weight management is an indicator of use of specific behavioral strategies. Significant challenges remain in regard to maintenance of this activity and attainment of weight loss goals.

Linking perceived control, physical activity, and biological health to memory change.

PubMed

Infurna, Frank J; Gerstorf, Denis

2013-12-01

Perceived control plays an important role for remaining cognitively fit across adulthood and old age. However, much less is known about the role of perceived control over and above common correlates of cognition, and possible factors that underlie such control-cognition associations. Our study examined whether perceived control was predictive of individual differences in subsequent 4-year changes in episodic memory, and explored the mediating role of physical activity and indicators of physical fitness, cardiovascular, and metabolic health for control-memory associations. To do so, we used longitudinal data from the nationwide Health and Retirement Study (HRS; N = 4,177; ages 30 to 97 years; 59% women). Our results show that perceiving more control over one's life predicted less memory declines, and this protective effect was similar in midlife and old age. We additionally observed that higher levels and maintenance of physical activity over 2 years, better pulmonary function, lower systolic blood pressure (SPB), lower hemoglobin A1c, and higher high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) also predicted less memory declines. Mediation analyses revealed that levels of, and 2-year changes in, physical activity, as well as levels of pulmonary function and hemoglobin A1c and HDL-C, each uniquely mediated control-memory change associations. Our findings illustrate that perceived control, physical activity, and indicators of physical fitness and cardiovascular and metabolic health moderate changes in memory, and add to the literature on antecedents of cognitive aging by conjointly targeting perceived control and some of its mediating factors. We discuss possible pathways underlying the role of control for memory change and consider future routes of inquiry to further our understanding of control-cognition associations in adulthood and old age. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Predicting adult weight change in the real world: a systematic review and meta-analysis accounting for compensatory changes in energy intake or expenditure.

PubMed

Dhurandhar, E J; Kaiser, K A; Dawson, J A; Alcorn, A S; Keating, K D; Allison, D B

2015-08-01

Public health and clinical interventions for obesity in free-living adults may be diminished by individual compensation for the intervention. Approaches to predict weight outcomes do not account for all mechanisms of compensation, so they are not well suited to predict outcomes in free-living adults. Our objective was to quantify the range of compensation in energy intake or expenditure observed in human randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We searched multiple databases (PubMed, CINAHL, SCOPUS, Cochrane, ProQuest, PsycInfo) up to 1 August 2012 for RCTs evaluating the effect of dietary and/or physical activity interventions on body weight/composition. subjects per treatment arm ≥5; ≥1 week intervention; a reported outcome of body weight/body composition; the intervention was either a prescribed amount of over- or underfeeding and/or supervised or monitored physical activity was prescribed; ≥80% compliance; and an objective method was used to verify compliance with the intervention (for example, observation and electronic monitoring). Data were independently extracted and analyzed by multiple reviewers with consensus reached by discussion. We compared observed weight change with predicted weight change using two models that predict weight change accounting only for metabolic compensation. Twenty-eight studies met inclusion criteria. Overfeeding studies indicate 96% less weight gain than expected if no compensation occurred. Dietary restriction and exercise studies may result in up to 12-44% and 55-64% less weight loss than expected, respectively, under an assumption of no behavioral compensation. Compensation is substantial even in high-compliance conditions, resulting in far less weight change than would be expected. The simple algorithm we report allows for more realistic predictions of intervention effects in free-living populations by accounting for the significant compensation that occurs.

Effects of Plant Traits on Ecosystem and Regional Processes: a Conceptual Framework for Predicting the Consequences of Global Change

PubMed Central

CHAPIN, F. STUART

2003-01-01

Human activities are causing widespread changes in the species composition of natural and managed ecosystems, but the consequences of these changes are poorly understood. This paper presents a conceptual framework for predicting the ecosystem and regional consequences of changes in plant species composition. Changes in species composition have greatest ecological effects when they modify the ecological factors that directly control (and respond to) ecosystem processes. These interactive controls include: functional types of organisms present in the ecosystem; soil resources used by organisms to grow and reproduce; modulators such as microclimate that influence the activity of organisms; disturbance regime; and human activities. Plant traits related to size and growth rate are particularly important because they determine the productive capacity of vegetation and the rates of decomposition and nitrogen mineralization. Because the same plant traits affect most key processes in the cycling of carbon and nutrients, changes in plant traits tend to affect most biogeochemical cycling processes in parallel. Plant traits also have landscape and regional effects through their effects on water and energy exchange and disturbance regime. PMID:12588725

Climate change and future fire regimes: Examples from California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Keeley, Jon E.; Syphard, Alexandra D.

2016-01-01

Climate and weather have long been noted as playing key roles in wildfire activity, and global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts on natural and urban ecosystems. Predicting future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Fuel structure plays a critical role in determining which climatic parameters are most influential on fire activity, and here, by focusing on the diversity of ecosystems in California, we illustrate some principles that need to be recognized in predicting future fire regimes. Spatial scale of analysis is important in that large heterogeneous landscapes may not fully capture accurate relationships between climate and fires. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned; however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models that predict future seasonal temperature changes are needed to improve fire regime projections. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited. Moreover, because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations, fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science; it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant to some landscapes, but where climate is relevant, the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

Changing ideas about others’ intentions: updating prior expectations tunes activity in the human motor system

PubMed Central

Jacquet, Pierre O.; Roy, Alice C.; Chambon, Valérian; Borghi, Anna M.; Salemme, Roméo; Farnè, Alessandro; Reilly, Karen T.

2016-01-01

Predicting intentions from observing another agent’s behaviours is often thought to depend on motor resonance – i.e., the motor system’s response to a perceived movement by the activation of its stored motor counterpart, but observers might also rely on prior expectations, especially when actions take place in perceptually uncertain situations. Here we assessed motor resonance during an action prediction task using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe corticospinal excitability (CSE) and report that experimentally-induced updates in observers’ prior expectations modulate CSE when predictions are made under situations of perceptual uncertainty. We show that prior expectations are updated on the basis of both biomechanical and probabilistic prior information and that the magnitude of the CSE modulation observed across participants is explained by the magnitude of change in their prior expectations. These findings provide the first evidence that when observers predict others’ intentions, motor resonance mechanisms adapt to changes in their prior expectations. We propose that this adaptive adjustment might reflect a regulatory control mechanism that shares some similarities with that observed during action selection. Such a mechanism could help arbitrate the competition between biomechanical and probabilistic prior information when appropriate for prediction. PMID:27243157

Changing ideas about others' intentions: updating prior expectations tunes activity in the human motor system.

PubMed

Jacquet, Pierre O; Roy, Alice C; Chambon, Valérian; Borghi, Anna M; Salemme, Roméo; Farnè, Alessandro; Reilly, Karen T

2016-05-31

Predicting intentions from observing another agent's behaviours is often thought to depend on motor resonance - i.e., the motor system's response to a perceived movement by the activation of its stored motor counterpart, but observers might also rely on prior expectations, especially when actions take place in perceptually uncertain situations. Here we assessed motor resonance during an action prediction task using transcranial magnetic stimulation to probe corticospinal excitability (CSE) and report that experimentally-induced updates in observers' prior expectations modulate CSE when predictions are made under situations of perceptual uncertainty. We show that prior expectations are updated on the basis of both biomechanical and probabilistic prior information and that the magnitude of the CSE modulation observed across participants is explained by the magnitude of change in their prior expectations. These findings provide the first evidence that when observers predict others' intentions, motor resonance mechanisms adapt to changes in their prior expectations. We propose that this adaptive adjustment might reflect a regulatory control mechanism that shares some similarities with that observed during action selection. Such a mechanism could help arbitrate the competition between biomechanical and probabilistic prior information when appropriate for prediction.

Factors predicting changes in physical activity through adolescence: the Young-HUNT Study, Norway.

PubMed

Rangul, Vegar; Holmen, Turid Lingaas; Bauman, Adrian; Bratberg, Grete H; Kurtze, Nanna; Midthjell, Kristian

2011-06-01

The purpose of this prospective population-based study was to analyze predictors of changes in physical activity (PA) levels from early to late adolescence. Data presented are from 2,348 adolescents and their parents who participated in the Nord-Trøndelag Health study (HUNT 2, 1995-1997) and at follow-up in Young-HUNT 2, 2000-2001 Participants completed a self-reported questionnaire and participated in a clinical examination that included measurements of height and weight. Four patterns of PA emerged in the study: active or inactive at both time points (active maintainers, 13%; inactive maintainers, 59%), inactive and became active (adopters, 12%), active and became inactive (relapsers, 16%). Being overweight, dissatisfied with life, and not actively participating in sports at baseline were significant predictors of change regarding PA among boys at follow-up. For girls, smoking, drinking, low maternal education, and physical inactivity predicted relapsers and inactive maintainers. Higher levels of education and more physically active parents at baseline seemed to protect against decreased PA during follow-up for both genders. Predictors of change in, or maintaining PA status during adolescence differed by gender. These results suggest that PA-promoting interventions should be tailored by gender and focus on encouraging activity for inactive adolescents and maintenance of PA in those already active. Copyright © 2011 Society for Adolescent Health and Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rostral anterior cingulate cortex activity and early symptom improvement during treatment for major depressive disorder

PubMed Central

Korb, Alexander S.; Hunter, Aimee M.; Cook, Ian A.; Leuchter, Andrew F.

2011-01-01

In treatment trials for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD), early symptom improvement is predictive of eventual clinical response. Clinical response may also be predicted by elevated pretreatment theta (4-7 Hz) current density in the rostral anterior cingulate (rACC) and medial orbitofrontal cortex (mOFC). We investigated the relationship between pretreatment EEG and early improvement in predicting clinical outcome in 72 MDD subjects across three placebo-controlled treatment trials. Subjects were randomized to receive fluoxetine, venlafaxine, or placebo. Theta current density in the rACC and mOFC was computed with Low-Resolution Brain Electromagnetic Tomography (LORETA). An ANCOVA, examining week 8 Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HamD) percent change, showed a significant effect of week-2-HamD-percent-change, and a significant three-way interaction of week-2-HamD-percent-change × Treatment × rACC. Medication subjects with robust early improvement showed almost no relationship between rACC theta current density and final clinical outcome. However, in subjects with little early improvement, rACC activity showed a strong relationship with clinical outcome. The model examining mOFC showed a trend in the three-way interaction. A combination of pretreatment rACC activity and early symptom improvement may be useful for predicting treatment response. PMID:21546222

Effect of annealing on structural changes and oxygen diffusion in amorphous HfO2 using classical molecular dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shen, Wenqing; Kumari, Niru; Gibson, Gary; Jeon, Yoocharn; Henze, Dick; Silverthorn, Sarah; Bash, Cullen; Kumar, Satish

2018-02-01

Non-volatile memory is a promising alternative to present memory technologies. Oxygen vacancy diffusion has been widely accepted as one of the reasons for the resistive switching mechanism of transition-metal-oxide based resistive random access memory. In this study, molecular dynamics simulation is applied to investigate the diffusion coefficient and activation energy of oxygen in amorphous hafnia. Two sets of empirical potential, Charge-Optimized Many-Body (COMB) and Morse-BKS (MBKS), were considered to investigate the structural and diffusion properties at different temperatures. COMB predicts the activation energy of 0.53 eV for the temperature range of 1000-2000 K, while MBKS predicts 2.2 eV at high temperature (1600-2000 K) and 0.36 eV at low temperature (1000-1600 K). Structural changes and appearance of nano-crystalline phases with increasing temperature might affect the activation energy of oxygen diffusion predicted by MBKS, which is evident from the change in coordination number distribution and radial distribution function. None of the potentials make predictions that are fully consistent with density functional theory simulations of both the structure and diffusion properties of HfO2. This suggests the necessity of developing a better multi-body potential that considers charge exchange.

Modelling proteins' hidden conformations to predict antibiotic resistance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hart, Kathryn M.; Ho, Chris M. W.; Dutta, Supratik; Gross, Michael L.; Bowman, Gregory R.

2016-10-01

TEM β-lactamase confers bacteria with resistance to many antibiotics and rapidly evolves activity against new drugs. However, functional changes are not easily explained by differences in crystal structures. We employ Markov state models to identify hidden conformations and explore their role in determining TEM's specificity. We integrate these models with existing drug-design tools to create a new technique, called Boltzmann docking, which better predicts TEM specificity by accounting for conformational heterogeneity. Using our MSMs, we identify hidden states whose populations correlate with activity against cefotaxime. To experimentally detect our predicted hidden states, we use rapid mass spectrometric footprinting and confirm our models' prediction that increased cefotaxime activity correlates with reduced Ω-loop flexibility. Finally, we design novel variants to stabilize the hidden cefotaximase states, and find their populations predict activity against cefotaxime in vitro and in vivo. Therefore, we expect this framework to have numerous applications in drug and protein design.

Modelling proteins’ hidden conformations to predict antibiotic resistance

PubMed Central

Hart, Kathryn M.; Ho, Chris M. W.; Dutta, Supratik; Gross, Michael L.; Bowman, Gregory R.

2016-01-01

TEM β-lactamase confers bacteria with resistance to many antibiotics and rapidly evolves activity against new drugs. However, functional changes are not easily explained by differences in crystal structures. We employ Markov state models to identify hidden conformations and explore their role in determining TEM’s specificity. We integrate these models with existing drug-design tools to create a new technique, called Boltzmann docking, which better predicts TEM specificity by accounting for conformational heterogeneity. Using our MSMs, we identify hidden states whose populations correlate with activity against cefotaxime. To experimentally detect our predicted hidden states, we use rapid mass spectrometric footprinting and confirm our models’ prediction that increased cefotaxime activity correlates with reduced Ω-loop flexibility. Finally, we design novel variants to stabilize the hidden cefotaximase states, and find their populations predict activity against cefotaxime in vitro and in vivo. Therefore, we expect this framework to have numerous applications in drug and protein design. PMID:27708258

Associations between prospective symptom changes and slow-wave activity in patients with Internet gaming disorder: A resting-state EEG study.

PubMed

Kim, Yeon Jin; Lee, Jun-Young; Oh, Sohee; Park, Minkyung; Jung, Hee Yeon; Sohn, Bo Kyung; Choi, Sam-Wook; Kim, Dai Jin; Choi, Jung-Seok

2017-02-01

The identification of the predictive factors and biological markers associated with treatment-related changes in the symptoms of Internet gaming disorder (IGD) may provide a better understanding of the pathophysiology underlying this condition. Thus, the present study aimed to identify neurophysiological markers associated with symptom changes in IGD patients and to identify factors that may predict symptom improvements following outpatient treatment with pharmacotherapy. The present study included 20 IGD patients (mean age: 22.71 ± 5.47 years) and 29 healthy control subjects (mean age: 23.97 ± 4.36 years); all IGD patients completed a 6-month outpatient management program that included pharmacotherapy with selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. Resting-state electroencephalography scans were acquired prior to and after treatment, and the primary treatment outcome was changes in scores on Young's Internet Addiction Test (IAT) from pre- to posttreatment. IGD patients showed increased resting-state electroencephalography activity in the delta and theta bands at baseline, but the increased delta band activity was normalized after 6 months of treatment and was significantly correlated with improvements in IGD symptoms. Additionally, higher absolute theta activity at baseline predicted a greater possibility of improvement in addiction symptoms following treatment, even after adjusting for the effects of depressive or anxiety symptoms. The present findings demonstrated that increased slow-wave activity represented a state neurophysiological marker in IGD patients and suggested that increased theta activity at baseline may be a favorable prognostic marker for this population.

Predicting Physical Activity-Related Outcomes in Overweight and Obese Adults: A Health Action Process Approach.

PubMed

Hattar, Anne; Pal, Sebely; Hagger, Martin S

2016-03-01

We tested the adequacy of a model based on the Health Action Process Approach (HAPA) in predicting changes in psychological, body composition, and cardiovascular risk outcomes with respect to physical activity participation in overweight and obese adults. Measures of HAPA constructs (action and maintenance self-efficacy, outcome expectancies, action planning, risk perceptions, intentions, behaviour), psychological outcomes (quality of life, depression, anxiety, stress symptoms), body composition variables (body weight, body fat mass), cardiovascular risk measures (total cholesterol, low density lipoprotein), and self-reported physical activity behaviour were administered to participants (N = 74) at baseline, and 6 and 12 weeks later. Data were analysed using variance-based structural equation modelling with residualised change scores for HAPA variables. The model revealed effects of action self-efficacy and outcome expectancies on physical activity intentions, action self-efficacy on maintenance self-efficacy, and maintenance self-efficacy and intentions on action planning. Intention predicted psychological and body composition outcomes indirectly through physical activity behaviour. Action planning was a direct predictor of psychological, cardiovascular, and body composition outcomes. Data supported HAPA hypotheses in relation to intentions and behaviour, but not the role of action planning as a mediator of the intention-behaviour relationship. Action planning predicted outcomes independent of intentions and behaviour. © 2016 The International Association of Applied Psychology.

Can Pharmacotherapists be Too Supportive? A Process Study of Active Medication and Placebo in the Treatment of Depression

PubMed Central

Strunk, Daniel R.; Stewart, Michael O.; Hollon, Steven D.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Fawcett, Jan; Amsterdam, Jay D.; Shelton, Richard C.

2013-01-01

Background This study examined therapist-patient interactions during clinical management with anti-depressant medication and pill-placebo. Methods The sample consisted of 80 patients on active medication and 40 patients in a pill-placebo condition from a randomized controlled trial for moderate to severe depression. Pharmacotherapist-patient interactions were characterized using observer ratings of the therapeutic alliance, pharmacotherapist-offered facilitative conditions, pharmacotherapist adherence to clinical management treatment guidelines, and pharmacotherapist competence. Patients, therapists, and raters were blind to treatment condition and outcome. Results Provision of greater nonspecific support (facilitative conditions) in early sessions predicted less subsequent improvement in depressive symptoms for patients receiving pill-placebo but not those receiving active medications, for which none of the process ratings predicted subsequent change. Early symptom change predicted later alliance and adherence in both conditions and therapist competence in the active condition. Conclusions Higher levels of support in early sessions predict poorer subsequent response among placebo patients. It remains unclear whether patients who are likely to be refractory elicit greater nonspecific support or whether the provision of such support has a deleterious effect in unmedicated patients. Differences in treatment process variables between conditions late in treatment are likely to be largely a consequence of symptom relief produced by active medications. PMID:19891806

[The bidirectional relationship between physical activity and sleep in depressed versus non-depressed individuals].

PubMed

Oude Oosterik, N A M; Bouwmans, M E J; de Groot, I W; Bos, E H; de Jonge, P

Sleep and physical activity are related, but the direction of this relationship is unclear and it is not known whether the direction differs in depressed and non-depressed persons. To study the bidirectional relationship between physical activity and sleep in daily life by making repeated measurements in depressed and non-depressed people. Every day for 30 consecutive days each depressed (N = 27) and non-depressed (N = 27) participant in our study had to complete an electronic questionnaire relating to subjective sleep quality and sleep duration and were required to wear an accelerometer that recorded physical activity. Multi-level analysis showed that an increase in subjective sleep duration resulted in a decrease in physical activity. The differences between individuals with regard to the direction and strength of this relationship were significant. Changes in physical activity did not predict changes in sleep quality or sleep duration. We did not find any differences in the relationships for depressed and non-depressed participants. Change in sleep duration predicts change in physical activity, although there was significant heterogeneity in the results for individuals. Our findings underline the importance of further research and of the development of interventions that are tailored to the precise needs of the individual patient.

Predicting changes in cardiac myocyte contractility during early drug discovery with in vitro assays

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Morton, M.J., E-mail: michael.morton@astrazeneca.com; Armstrong, D.; Abi Gerges, N.

2014-09-01

Cardiovascular-related adverse drug effects are a major concern for the pharmaceutical industry. Activity of an investigational drug at the L-type calcium channel could manifest in a number of ways, including changes in cardiac contractility. The aim of this study was to define which of the two assay technologies – radioligand-binding or automated electrophysiology – was most predictive of contractility effects in an in vitro myocyte contractility assay. The activity of reference and proprietary compounds at the L-type calcium channel was measured by radioligand-binding assays, conventional patch-clamp, automated electrophysiology, and by measurement of contractility in canine isolated cardiac myocytes. Activity inmore » the radioligand-binding assay at the L-type Ca channel phenylalkylamine binding site was most predictive of an inotropic effect in the canine cardiac myocyte assay. The sensitivity was 73%, specificity 83% and predictivity 78%. The radioligand-binding assay may be run at a single test concentration and potency estimated. The least predictive assay was automated electrophysiology which showed a significant bias when compared with other assay formats. Given the importance of the L-type calcium channel, not just in cardiac function, but also in other organ systems, a screening strategy emerges whereby single concentration ligand-binding can be performed early in the discovery process with sufficient predictivity, throughput and turnaround time to influence chemical design and address a significant safety-related liability, at relatively low cost. - Highlights: • The L-type calcium channel is a significant safety liability during drug discovery. • Radioligand-binding to the L-type calcium channel can be measured in vitro. • The assay can be run at a single test concentration as part of a screening cascade. • This measurement is highly predictive of changes in cardiac myocyte contractility.« less

Community-based participatory research to decrease smoking prevalence in a high-risk young adult population: an evaluation of the Students Against Nicotine and Tobacco Addiction (SANTA) project.

PubMed

Mendenhall, Tai J; Harper, Peter G; Henn, Lisa; Rudser, Kyle D; Schoeller, Bill P

2014-03-01

Students Against Nicotine and Tobacco Addiction is a community-based participatory research project that engages local medical and mental health providers in partnership with students, teachers, and administrators at the Minnesota-based Job Corps. This intervention contains multiple and synchronous elements designed to allay the stress that students attribute to smoking, including physical activities, nonphysical activities, purposeful modifications to the campus's environment and rules/policies, and on-site smoking cessation education and peer support. The intent of the present investigation was to evaluate (a) the types of stress most predictive of smoking behavior and/or nicotine dependence, (b) which activities students are participating in, and (c) which activities are most predictive of behavior change (or readiness to change). Quantitative data were collected through 5 campus-wide surveys. Response rates for each survey exceeded 85%. Stressors most commonly cited included struggles to find a job, financial problems, family conflict, lack of privacy or freedom, missing family or being homesick, dealing with Job Corps rules, and other-unspecified. The most popular activities in which students took part were physically active ones. However, activities most predictive of beneficent change were nonphysical. Approximately one third of respondents were nicotine dependent at baseline. Nearly half intended to quit within 1 month and 74% intended to quit within 6 months. Interventions perceived as most helpful toward reducing smoking were nonphysical in nature. Future efforts with this and comparable populations should engage youth in advancing such activities within a broader range of activity choices, alongside conventional education and support.

A Preliminary Investigation of Accelerometer-Derived Sleep and Physical Activity Following Sport-Related Concussion.

PubMed

Sufrinko, Alicia M; Howie, Erin K; Elbin, R J; Collins, Michael W; Kontos, Anthony P

2018-03-29

Describe changes in postconcussion activity levels and sleep throughout recovery in a sample of pediatric sport-related concussion (SRC) patients, and examine the predictive value of accelerometer-derived activity and sleep on subsequent clinical outcomes at a follow-up clinic visit. Outpatient concussion clinic. Twenty athletes aged 12 to 19 years with diagnosed SRC. Prospective study including visit 1 (<72 hours postinjury) and visit 2 (6-18 days postinjury). Linear regressions used to predict scores (ie, neurocognitive, vestibular/oculomotor) at visit 2 from accelerometer-derived data collected 0 to 6 days postinjury. Linear mixed models evaluated changes in activity and sleep across recovery. Symptom, neurocognitive, and vestibular/oculomotor scores; sleep and activity data (Actigraph GT3x+) RESULTS:: The maximum intensity of physical activity increased (P = .009) and time in bed decreased throughout recovery (P = .026). Several physical activity metrics from 0 to 6 days postinjury were predictive of worse vestibular/oculomotor scores at visit 2 (P < .05). Metrics indicative of poor sleep 0 to 6 days postinjury were associated with worse reaction time at visit 2 (P < .05). This exploratory study suggests physical activity and sleep change from the acute to subacute postinjury time period in adolescent SRC patients. In our small sample, excess physical activity and poor sleep the first week postinjury may be associated with worse outcomes at follow-up in the subacute stage of recovery. This study further supported the feasibility of research utilizing wearable technology in concussion patients, and future research in a large, diverse sample of concussion patients examined at concise time intervals postinjury is needed.

A multilevel modeling approach to examining the implementation-effectiveness relationship of a behavior change intervention for health care professional trainees.

PubMed

Tomasone, Jennifer R; Sweet, Shane N; McReynolds, Stuart; Martin Ginis, Kathleen A

2017-09-01

Changing Minds, Changing Lives, a seminar-mediated behavior change intervention, aims to enhance health care professionals' (HCPs') social cognitions for discussing leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) with patients with physical disabilities. This study examines which seminar implementation variables (presenter characteristics, delivery components) predict effectiveness using multilevel modeling. HCP trainees (n = 564) attended 24 seminars and completed Theory of Planned Behavior-based measures for discussing LTPA at pre-, post-, 1-month post-, and 6-months post-seminar. Implementation variables were extracted from presenter-completed questionnaires/checklists. Seminars presented by a HCP predicted positive changes in all cognitions pre-post but negative changes in attitudes and perceived behavioral control (PBC) over follow-up (ps < .05). The number of seminars the presenter had delivered predicted negative changes in attitudes and PBC during follow-up (ps < .001). Inclusion of audiovisual components predicted positive changes in attitudes pre-post (p < .001). Presenter characteristics may be "key ingredients" to educational interventions for HCPs; however, future studies should examine additional implementation variables.

Model-based analysis of N-glycosylation in Chinese hamster ovary cells

PubMed Central

Krambeck, Frederick J.; Bennun, Sandra V.; Betenbaugh, Michael J.

2017-01-01

The Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell is the gold standard for manufacturing of glycosylated recombinant proteins for production of biotherapeutics. The similarity of its glycosylation patterns to the human versions enable the products of this cell line favorable pharmacokinetic properties and lower likelihood of causing immunogenic responses. Because glycan structures are the product of the concerted action of intracellular enzymes, it is difficult to predict a priori how the effects of genetic manipulations alter glycan structures of cells and therapeutic properties. For that reason, quantitative models able to predict glycosylation have emerged as promising tools to deal with the complexity of glycosylation processing. For example, an earlier version of the same model used in this study was used by others to successfully predict changes in enzyme activities that could produce a desired change in glycan structure. In this study we utilize an updated version of this model to provide a comprehensive analysis of N-glycosylation in ten Chinese hamster ovary (CHO) cell lines that include a wild type parent and nine mutants of CHO, through interpretation of previously published mass spectrometry data. The updated N-glycosylation mathematical model contains up to 50,605 glycan structures. Adjusting the enzyme activities in this model to match N-glycan mass spectra produces detailed predictions of the glycosylation process, enzyme activity profiles and complete glycosylation profiles of each of the cell lines. These profiles are consistent with biochemical and genetic data reported previously. The model-based results also predict glycosylation features of the cell lines not previously published, indicating more complex changes in glycosylation enzyme activities than just those resulting directly from gene mutations. The model predicts that the CHO cell lines possess regulatory mechanisms that allow them to adjust glycosylation enzyme activities to mitigate side effects of the primary loss or gain of glycosylation function known to exist in these mutant cell lines. Quantitative models of CHO cell glycosylation have the potential for predicting how glycoengineering manipulations might affect glycoform distributions to improve the therapeutic performance of glycoprotein products. PMID:28486471

Work-induced changes in feelings of mastery.

PubMed

Bradley, Graham L

2010-01-01

Past theory and research indicate that conditions of work can have lasting effects on job incumbents. R. A. Karasek and T. Theorell (1990), for example, proposed that workers' feelings of mastery increase with levels of job demands and job control, and that these effects are mediated by the process of active learning. To test these propositions, 657 school teachers completed scales assessing job demands, control, active learning, and mastery on 2 occasions, 8 months apart. As hypothesized, job control predicted change in mastery, an effect that was mediated by active learning. Job demands had a weaker effect on change in mastery. The demands-mastery relationship was moderated by job control, so that under conditions of high control, but not low control, increasing job demands were associated with gains in mastery. The findings partially support R. A. Karasek and T. Theorell's (1990) predictions regarding the main, interactive, and mediated effects of job conditions on employee mastery.

Early visual responses predict conscious face perception within and between subjects during binocular rivalry

PubMed Central

Sandberg, Kristian; Bahrami, Bahador; Kanai, Ryota; Barnes, Gareth Robert; Overgaard, Morten; Rees, Geraint

2014-01-01

Previous studies indicate that conscious face perception may be related to neural activity in a large time window around 170-800ms after stimulus presentation, yet in the majority of these studies changes in conscious experience are confounded with changes in physical stimulation. Using multivariate classification on MEG data recorded when participants reported changes in conscious perception evoked by binocular rivalry between a face and a grating, we showed that only MEG signals in the 120-320ms time range, peaking at the M170 around 180ms and the P2m at around 260ms, reliably predicted conscious experience. Conscious perception could not only be decoded significantly better than chance from the sensors that showed the largest average difference, as previous studies suggest, but also from patterns of activity across groups of occipital sensors that individually were unable to predict perception better than chance. Additionally, source space analyses showed that sources in the early and late visual system predicted conscious perception more accurately than frontal and parietal sites, although conscious perception could also be decoded there. Finally, the patterns of neural activity associated with conscious face perception generalized from one participant to another around the times of maximum prediction accuracy. Our work thus demonstrates that the neural correlates of particular conscious contents (here, faces) are highly consistent in time and space within individuals and that these correlates are shared to some extent between individuals. PMID:23281780

Evaluating Fire Risk in the Northeastern United States in the Past, Present, and Future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, D.; Bradley, R. S.

2017-12-01

One poorly understood consequence of climate change is its effects on extreme events such as wildfires. Robust associations between wildfire frequency and climatic variability have been shown to exist, indicating that future climate change may continue to have a significant effect on wildfire activity. The Northeastern United States (NEUS) has seen some of the most infamous and largest historic fires in North America, such as the Miramichi Fire of 1825 and the fires of 1947. Although return intervals for large fires in the NEUS are long (hundreds of years), wildfires have played a critical role in ecosystem development and forest structure in the region. Understanding and predicting fire occurrence and vulnerability in the NEUS, especially in a changing climate, is economically and culturally important yet remains difficult due to human impacts (i.e. fire suppression activities and human disturbance). Thus, an alternative method for investigating fire risk in the NEUS is needed. Here, we present a compilation of meteorological data collected from Automated Surface Observing Systems (ASOS) from the NEUS throughout the 20th century through present day. We use these data to compute fifteen common "fire danger indices" employed in the USA and Canada to investigate changes in the region's fire risk over time, as well as the skill of each of these indices at predicting wildfire activity relative to the historical record of fires in the NEUS. We use dynamically-downscaled regional climate model output for the 21st century to project future wildfire activity based on the fire danger indices capable of capturing historical fire activity in the NEUS. These projections will aid in predicting how fire risk in the NEUS will evolve with anticipated climate change.

Changes of mind in an attractor network of decision-making.

PubMed

Albantakis, Larissa; Deco, Gustavo

2011-06-01

Attractor networks successfully account for psychophysical and neurophysiological data in various decision-making tasks. Especially their ability to model persistent activity, a property of many neurons involved in decision-making, distinguishes them from other approaches. Stable decision attractors are, however, counterintuitive to changes of mind. Here we demonstrate that a biophysically-realistic attractor network with spiking neurons, in its itinerant transients towards the choice attractors, can replicate changes of mind observed recently during a two-alternative random-dot motion (RDM) task. Based on the assumption that the brain continues to evaluate available evidence after the initiation of a decision, the network predicts neural activity during changes of mind and accurately simulates reaction times, performance and percentage of changes dependent on difficulty. Moreover, the model suggests a low decision threshold and high incoming activity that drives the brain region involved in the decision-making process into a dynamical regime close to a bifurcation, which up to now lacked evidence for physiological relevance. Thereby, we further affirmed the general conformance of attractor networks with higher level neural processes and offer experimental predictions to distinguish nonlinear attractor from linear diffusion models.

Cortisol Secretion and Change in Sleep Problems in Early Childhood: Moderation by Maternal Overcontrol

PubMed Central

Kiel, Elizabeth J.; Hummel, Alexandra C.; Luebbe, Aaron M.

2015-01-01

Childhood sleep problems are prevalent and relate to a wide range of negative psychological outcomes. However, it remains unclear how biological processes, such as HPA activity, may predict sleep problems over time in childhood in the context of certain parenting environments. Fifty-one mothers and their 18–20 month-old toddlers participated in a short-term longitudinal study assessing how shared variance among morning levels, diurnal change, and nocturnal change in toddlers’ cortisol secretion predicted change in sleep problems in the context of maternal overprotection and critical control. A composite characterized by low variability in, and, to a lesser extent, high morning values of cortisol, predicted increasing sleep problems from age 2 to age 3 when mothers reported high critical control. Results suggest value in assessing shared variance among different indices of cortisol secretion patterns and the interaction between cortisol and the environment in predicting sleep problems in early childhood. PMID:25766262

Punishing an error improves learning: the influence of punishment magnitude on error-related neural activity and subsequent learning.

PubMed

Hester, Robert; Murphy, Kevin; Brown, Felicity L; Skilleter, Ashley J

2010-11-17

Punishing an error to shape subsequent performance is a major tenet of individual and societal level behavioral interventions. Recent work examining error-related neural activity has identified that the magnitude of activity in the posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) is predictive of learning from an error, whereby greater activity in this region predicts adaptive changes in future cognitive performance. It remains unclear how punishment influences error-related neural mechanisms to effect behavior change, particularly in key regions such as pMFC, which previous work has demonstrated to be insensitive to punishment. Using an associative learning task that provided monetary reward and punishment for recall performance, we observed that when recall errors were categorized by subsequent performance--whether the failure to accurately recall a number-location association was corrected at the next presentation of the same trial--the magnitude of error-related pMFC activity predicted future correction. However, the pMFC region was insensitive to the magnitude of punishment an error received and it was the left insula cortex that predicted learning from the most aversive outcomes. These findings add further evidence to the hypothesis that error-related pMFC activity may reflect more than a prediction error in representing the value of an outcome. The novel role identified here for the insular cortex in learning from punishment appears particularly compelling for our understanding of psychiatric and neurologic conditions that feature both insular cortex dysfunction and a diminished capacity for learning from negative feedback or punishment.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks.

PubMed

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-04-22

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve approximately 30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations.

Prediction of human errors by maladaptive changes in event-related brain networks

PubMed Central

Eichele, Tom; Debener, Stefan; Calhoun, Vince D.; Specht, Karsten; Engel, Andreas K.; Hugdahl, Kenneth; von Cramon, D. Yves; Ullsperger, Markus

2008-01-01

Humans engaged in monotonous tasks are susceptible to occasional errors that may lead to serious consequences, but little is known about brain activity patterns preceding errors. Using functional MRI and applying independent component analysis followed by deconvolution of hemodynamic responses, we studied error preceding brain activity on a trial-by-trial basis. We found a set of brain regions in which the temporal evolution of activation predicted performance errors. These maladaptive brain activity changes started to evolve ≈30 sec before the error. In particular, a coincident decrease of deactivation in default mode regions of the brain, together with a decline of activation in regions associated with maintaining task effort, raised the probability of future errors. Our findings provide insights into the brain network dynamics preceding human performance errors and suggest that monitoring of the identified precursor states may help in avoiding human errors in critical real-world situations. PMID:18427123

Hyperactivity in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD): Impairing Deficit or Compensatory Behavior?

PubMed

Sarver, Dustin E; Rapport, Mark D; Kofler, Michael J; Raiker, Joseph S; Friedman, Lauren M

2015-10-01

Excess gross motor activity (hyperactivity) is considered a core diagnostic feature of childhood ADHD that impedes learning. This view has been challenged, however, by recent models that conceptualize excess motor activity as a compensatory mechanism that facilitates neurocognitive functioning in children with ADHD. The current study investigated competing model predictions regarding activity level's relation with working memory (WM) performance and attention in boys aged 8-12 years (M = 9.64, SD = 1.26) with ADHD (n = 29) and typically developing children (TD; n = 23). Children's phonological WM and attentive behavior were objectively assessed during four counterbalanced WM tasks administered across four separate sessions. These data were then sequenced hierarchically based on behavioral observations of each child's gross motor activity during each task. Analysis of the relations among intra-individual changes in observed activity level, attention, and performance revealed that higher rates of activity level predicted significantly better, but not normalized WM performance for children with ADHD. Conversely, higher rates of activity level predicted somewhat lower WM performance for TD children. Variations in movement did not predict changes in attention for either group. At the individual level, children with ADHD and TD children were more likely to be classified as reliably Improved and Deteriorated, respectively, when comparing their WM performance at their highest versus lowest observed activity level. These findings appear most consistent with models ascribing a functional role to hyperactivity in ADHD, with implications for selecting behavioral treatment targets to avoid overcorrecting gross motor activity during academic tasks that rely on phonological WM.

Impact of active controls technology on structural integrity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noll, Thomas; Austin, Edward; Donley, Shawn; Graham, George; Harris, Terry

1991-01-01

This paper summarizes the findings of The Technical Cooperation Program to assess the impact of active controls technology on the structural integrity of aeronautical vehicles and to evaluate the present state-of-the-art for predicting the loads caused by a flight-control system modification and the resulting change in the fatigue life of the flight vehicle. The potential for active controls to adversely affect structural integrity is described, and load predictions obtained using two state-of-the-art analytical methods are given.

Active lifestyles in older adults: an integrated predictive model of physical activity and exercise

PubMed Central

Galli, Federica; Chirico, Andrea; Mallia, Luca; Girelli, Laura; De Laurentiis, Michelino; Lucidi, Fabio; Giordano, Antonio; Botti, Gerardo

2018-01-01

Physical activity and exercise have been identified as behaviors to preserve physical and mental health in older adults. The aim of the present study was to test the Integrated Behavior Change model in exercise and physical activity behaviors. The study evaluated two different samples of older adults: the first engaged in exercise class, the second doing spontaneous physical activity. The key analyses relied on Variance-Based Structural Modeling, which were performed by means of WARP PLS 6.0 statistical software. The analyses estimated the Integrated Behavior Change model in predicting exercise and physical activity, in a longitudinal design across two months of assessment. The tested models exhibited a good fit with the observed data derived from the model focusing on exercise, as well as with those derived from the model focusing on physical activity. Results showed, also, some effects and relations specific to each behavioral context. Results may form a starting point for future experimental and intervention research. PMID:29875997

Evidence that displacement activities facilitate behavioural transitions in ring-tailed lemurs.

PubMed

Buckley, Victoria; Semple, Stuart

2012-07-01

Displacement activities are behavioural patterns defined by their apparent irrelevance to an animal's ongoing actions. Despite being identified in diverse taxa, their function remains poorly understood. One hypothesis posits that displacement activities facilitate transitions between different behaviours by mediating changes in animals' motivational state. Under this hypothesis, it is predicted that displacement activities will occur more frequently around changes in behaviour than at other times, and also that rates of displacement activities will be higher before than after such behavioural transitions. We tested these two predictions in wild ring-tailed lemurs (Lemur catta). During focal observations, animals' behavioural state was continuously recorded, as were all occurrences of self-scratching, a common displacement activity in this species. Self-scratching rates were found to be significantly elevated both before and after behavioural transitions. Furthermore, self-scratching rates were significantly higher before behavioural transitions occurred than after. These results, therefore, provide support for the hypothesis that displacement activities facilitate behavioural transitions in L. catta. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changes in Leisure Activities and Dimensions of Depressive Symptoms in Later Life: A 12-Year Follow-Up.

PubMed

Chao, Shiau-Fang

2016-06-01

Although leisure activities benefit the mental health of the elderly population, the effect of changes in leisure activities on dimensions of depressive symptoms remains unclear. This investigation examined the influences of changes in intellectual, social, and physical activities between waves on four dimensions of depressive symptoms at follow-up. Random effects modeling was utilized with data from a nationwide longitudinal study conducted in Taiwan. The study data comprised 6,942 observations from 2,660 older adults over a 12-year period. The results suggested that changes in physical activities contributed to depressive symptoms which reflected positive affect in the later wave. Increased social activities between waves predicted higher positive affect and lower interpersonal difficulties scores at follow-up. Increased intellectual activities between waves did not substantially affect any domain of depressive symptoms. In contrast, declines in intellectual activities between waves predicted higher scores in three depressive symptoms domains, including depressed mood, somatic symptoms, and interpersonal difficulties. Engagement in a varied range of activities benefits mental health among elders more than participation in any single type of activity among elders. Reducing physical activities can lower positive affect, while the adverse effect may be balanced by increasing social activities. Also, the impact of decreasing intellectual activities on the interpersonal difficulties domain of depressive symptoms may be offset by increasing social activities. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Changing Arctic snow cover: A review of recent developments and assessment of future needs for observations, modelling, and impacts.

PubMed

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Højlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W; Brown, Ross D; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L H; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne; Johansson, Cecilia; Johansson, Margareta; Jónsdóttir, Ingibjörg Svala; Inga, Niila; Luojus, Kari; Macelloni, Giovanni; Mariash, Heather; McLennan, Donald; Rosqvist, Gunhild Ninis; Sato, Atsushi; Savela, Hannele; Schneebeli, Martin; Sokolov, Aleksandr; Sokratov, Sergey A; Terzago, Silvia; Vikhamar-Schuler, Dagrun; Williamson, Scott; Qiu, Yubao; Callaghan, Terry V

2016-09-01

Snow is a critically important and rapidly changing feature of the Arctic. However, snow-cover and snowpack conditions change through time pose challenges for measuring and prediction of snow. Plausible scenarios of how Arctic snow cover will respond to changing Arctic climate are important for impact assessments and adaptation strategies. Although much progress has been made in understanding and predicting snow-cover changes and their multiple consequences, many uncertainties remain. In this paper, we review advances in snow monitoring and modelling, and the impact of snow changes on ecosystems and society in Arctic regions. Interdisciplinary activities are required to resolve the current limitations on measuring and modelling snow characteristics through the cold season and at different spatial scales to assure human well-being, economic stability, and improve the ability to predict manage and adapt to natural hazards in the Arctic region.

Changing Arctic Snow Cover: A Review of Recent Developments and Assessment of Future Needs for Observations, Modelling, and Impacts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bokhorst, Stef; Pedersen, Stine Hojlund; Brucker, Ludovic; Anisimov, Oleg; Bjerke, Jarle W.; Brown, Ross D.; Ehrich, Dorothee; Essery, Richard L. H.; Heilig, Achim; Ingvander, Susanne;

Complexity of cardiac signals for predicting changes in alpha-waves after stress in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiu, Hung-Chih; Lin, Yen-Hung; Lo, Men-Tzung; Tang, Sung-Chun; Wang, Tzung-Dau; Lu, Hung-Chun; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Ma, Hsi-Pin; Peng, Chung-Kang

2015-08-01

The hierarchical interaction between electrical signals of the brain and heart is not fully understood. We hypothesized that the complexity of cardiac electrical activity can be used to predict changes in encephalic electricity after stress. Most methods for analyzing the interaction between the heart rate variability (HRV) and electroencephalography (EEG) require a computation-intensive mathematical model. To overcome these limitations and increase the predictive accuracy of human relaxing states, we developed a method to test our hypothesis. In addition to routine linear analysis, multiscale entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis of the HRV were used to quantify nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic changes in the heart rate time series. Short-time Fourier transform was applied to quantify the power of EEG. The clinical, HRV, and EEG parameters of postcatheterization EEG alpha waves were analyzed using change-score analysis and generalized additive models. In conclusion, the complexity of cardiac electrical signals can be used to predict EEG changes after stress.

Complexity of cardiac signals for predicting changes in alpha-waves after stress in patients undergoing cardiac catheterization

PubMed Central

Chiu, Hung-Chih; Lin, Yen-Hung; Lo, Men-Tzung; Tang, Sung-Chun; Wang, Tzung-Dau; Lu, Hung-Chun; Ho, Yi-Lwun; Ma, Hsi-Pin; Peng, Chung-Kang

2015-01-01

The hierarchical interaction between electrical signals of the brain and heart is not fully understood. We hypothesized that the complexity of cardiac electrical activity can be used to predict changes in encephalic electricity after stress. Most methods for analyzing the interaction between the heart rate variability (HRV) and electroencephalography (EEG) require a computation-intensive mathematical model. To overcome these limitations and increase the predictive accuracy of human relaxing states, we developed a method to test our hypothesis. In addition to routine linear analysis, multiscale entropy and detrended fluctuation analysis of the HRV were used to quantify nonstationary and nonlinear dynamic changes in the heart rate time series. Short-time Fourier transform was applied to quantify the power of EEG. The clinical, HRV, and EEG parameters of postcatheterization EEG alpha waves were analyzed using change-score analysis and generalized additive models. In conclusion, the complexity of cardiac electrical signals can be used to predict EEG changes after stress. PMID:26286628

An Examination of Exercise-Induced Feeling States and Their Association With Future Participation in Physical Activity Among Older Adults.

PubMed

Brunet, Jennifer; Guérin, Eva; Speranzini, Nicolas

2018-01-01

Although exercise-induced feeling states may play a role in driving future behavior, their role in relation to older adults' participation in physical activity (PA) has seldom been considered. The objectives of this study were to describe changes in older adults' feeling states during exercise, and examine if levels of and changes in feeling states predicted their future participation in PA. Self-reported data on feeling states were collected from 82 older adults immediately before, during, and after a moderate-intensity exercise session, and on participation in PA 1 month later. Data were analyzed using latent growth modeling. Feelings of revitalization, positive engagement, and tranquility decreased during exercise, whereas feelings of physical exhaustion increased. Feelings of revitalization immediately before the exercise session predicted future participation in PA; changes in feeling states did not. This study does not provide empirical evidence that older adults' exercise-induced feeling states predict their future participation in PA.

Behind the stage of deliberate self-persuasion: When changes in valence of associations to an attitude object predict attitude change.

PubMed

Lu, Tong; Lord, Charles G; Yoke, Kristin

2015-12-01

Modern theory and research on evaluative processes, combined with a comprehensive review of deliberate self-persuasion (Maio & Thomas, 2007, Pers. Soc. Psychol. Bull., 11, 46), suggest two types of strategies people can use to construct new, more desired attitudes. Epistemic strategies change the perceived valence of associations activated by the attitude object. Teleologic strategies, in contrast, keep undesired associations from being activated in the first place, thus obviating the need to change their perceived valence. Change in perceived valence of associations therefore might predict attitude change better when people pursue epistemic than teleologic strategies for deliberate self-persuasion. This hypothesis gained convergent support from three studies in which use of epistemic versus teleologic strategies was measured as an individual difference (Study 1) and manipulated (studies 2 and 3). The results of these studies supported the theoretical distinction between the two strategies and suggested further research directions. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Cortical ensemble activity increasingly predicts behaviour outcomes during learning of a motor task

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laubach, Mark; Wessberg, Johan; Nicolelis, Miguel A. L.

2000-06-01

When an animal learns to make movements in response to different stimuli, changes in activity in the motor cortex seem to accompany and underlie this learning. The precise nature of modifications in cortical motor areas during the initial stages of motor learning, however, is largely unknown. Here we address this issue by chronically recording from neuronal ensembles located in the rat motor cortex, throughout the period required for rats to learn a reaction-time task. Motor learning was demonstrated by a decrease in the variance of the rats' reaction times and an increase in the time the animals were able to wait for a trigger stimulus. These behavioural changes were correlated with a significant increase in our ability to predict the correct or incorrect outcome of single trials based on three measures of neuronal ensemble activity: average firing rate, temporal patterns of firing, and correlated firing. This increase in prediction indicates that an association between sensory cues and movement emerged in the motor cortex as the task was learned. Such modifications in cortical ensemble activity may be critical for the initial learning of motor tasks.

Perceptual Distortions in Pitch and Time Reveal Active Prediction and Support for an Auditory Pitch-Motion Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Henry, Molly J.; McAuley, J. Devin

2013-01-01

A number of accounts of human auditory perception assume that listeners use prior stimulus context to generate predictions about future stimulation. Here, we tested an auditory pitch-motion hypothesis that was developed from this perspective. Listeners judged either the time change (i.e., duration) or pitch change of a comparison frequency glide relative to a standard (referent) glide. Under a constant-velocity assumption, listeners were hypothesized to use the pitch velocity (Δf/Δt) of the standard glide to generate predictions about the pitch velocity of the comparison glide, leading to perceptual distortions along the to-be-judged dimension when the velocities of the two glides differed. These predictions were borne out in the pattern of relative points of subjective equality by a significant three-way interaction between the velocities of the two glides and task. In general, listeners’ judgments along the task-relevant dimension (pitch or time) were affected by expectations generated by the constant-velocity standard, but in an opposite manner for the two stimulus dimensions. When the comparison glide velocity was faster than the standard, listeners overestimated time change, but underestimated pitch change, whereas when the comparison glide velocity was slower than the standard, listeners underestimated time change, but overestimated pitch change. Perceptual distortions were least evident when the velocities of the standard and comparison glides were matched. Fits of an imputed velocity model further revealed increasingly larger distortions at faster velocities. The present findings provide support for the auditory pitch-motion hypothesis and add to a larger body of work revealing a role for active prediction in human auditory perception. PMID:23936462

Perceptual distortions in pitch and time reveal active prediction and support for an auditory pitch-motion hypothesis.

PubMed

Henry, Molly J; McAuley, J Devin

2013-01-01

A number of accounts of human auditory perception assume that listeners use prior stimulus context to generate predictions about future stimulation. Here, we tested an auditory pitch-motion hypothesis that was developed from this perspective. Listeners judged either the time change (i.e., duration) or pitch change of a comparison frequency glide relative to a standard (referent) glide. Under a constant-velocity assumption, listeners were hypothesized to use the pitch velocity (Δf/Δt) of the standard glide to generate predictions about the pitch velocity of the comparison glide, leading to perceptual distortions along the to-be-judged dimension when the velocities of the two glides differed. These predictions were borne out in the pattern of relative points of subjective equality by a significant three-way interaction between the velocities of the two glides and task. In general, listeners' judgments along the task-relevant dimension (pitch or time) were affected by expectations generated by the constant-velocity standard, but in an opposite manner for the two stimulus dimensions. When the comparison glide velocity was faster than the standard, listeners overestimated time change, but underestimated pitch change, whereas when the comparison glide velocity was slower than the standard, listeners underestimated time change, but overestimated pitch change. Perceptual distortions were least evident when the velocities of the standard and comparison glides were matched. Fits of an imputed velocity model further revealed increasingly larger distortions at faster velocities. The present findings provide support for the auditory pitch-motion hypothesis and add to a larger body of work revealing a role for active prediction in human auditory perception.

Progressive and regressive developmental changes in neural substrates for face processing: Testing specific predictions of the Interactive Specialization account

PubMed Central

Joseph, Jane E.; Gathers, Ann D.; Bhatt, Ramesh S.

2010-01-01

Face processing undergoes a fairly protracted developmental time course but the neural underpinnings are not well understood. Prior fMRI studies have only examined progressive changes (i.e., increases in specialization in certain regions with age), which would be predicted by both the Interactive Specialization (IS) and maturational theories of neural development. To differentiate between these accounts, the present study also examined regressive changes (i.e., decreases in specialization in certain regions with age), which is predicted by the IS but not maturational account. The fMRI results show that both progressive and regressive changes occur, consistent with IS. Progressive changes mostly occurred in occipital-fusiform and inferior frontal cortex whereas regressive changes largely emerged in parietal and lateral temporal cortices. Moreover, inconsistent with the maturational account, all of the regions involved in face viewing in adults were active in children, with some regions already specialized for face processing by 5 years of age and other regions activated in children but not specifically for faces. Thus, neurodevelopment of face processing involves dynamic interactions among brain regions including age-related increases and decreases in specialization and the involvement of different regions at different ages. These results are more consistent with IS than maturational models of neural development. PMID:21399706

Contrasting fire responses to climate and management: insights from two Australian ecosystems.

PubMed

King, Karen J; Cary, Geoffrey J; Bradstock, Ross A; Marsden-Smedley, Jonathan B

2013-04-01

This study explores effects of climate change and fuel management on unplanned fire activity in ecosystems representing contrasting extremes of the moisture availability spectrum (mesic and arid). Simulation modelling examined unplanned fire activity (fire incidence and area burned, and the area burned by large fires) for alternate climate scenarios and prescribed burning levels in: (i) a cool, moist temperate forest and wet moorland ecosystem in south-west Tasmania (mesic); and (ii) a spinifex and mulga ecosystem in central Australia (arid). Contemporary fire activity in these case study systems is limited, respectively, by fuel availability and fuel amount. For future climates, unplanned fire incidence and area burned increased in the mesic landscape, but decreased in the arid landscape in accordance with predictions based on these limiting factors. Area burned by large fires (greater than the 95th percentile of historical, unplanned fire size) increased with future climates in the mesic landscape. Simulated prescribed burning was more effective in reducing unplanned fire activity in the mesic landscape. However, the inhibitory effects of prescribed burning are predicted to be outweighed by climate change in the mesic landscape, whereas in the arid landscape prescribed burning reinforced a predicted decline in fire under climate change. The potentially contrasting direction of future changes to fire will have fundamentally different consequences for biodiversity in these contrasting ecosystems, and these will need to be accommodated through contrasting, innovative management solutions. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Modifying Student Behavior in an Open Classroom through Changes in the Physical Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weinstein, Carol S.

1977-01-01

Spatial distribution of activity in a second-third grade open classroom was observed before and after a change in the physical design, to test the hypothesis that minor changes in the physical setting would produce predictable, desirable changes in student behavior. In most cases the desired behavior changes were produced. (Author/MV)

Longitudinal relationships between resources, motivation, and functioning.

PubMed

Hess, Thomas M; Emery, Lisa; Neupert, Shevaun D

2012-05-01

We investigated how fluctuations and linear changes in health and cognitive resources influence the motivation to engage in complex cognitive activity and the extent to which motivation mediated the relationship between changing resources and cognitively demanding activities. Longitudinal data from 332 adults aged 20-85 years were examined. Motivation was assessed using a composite of Need for Cognition and Personal Need for Structure and additional measures of health, sensory functioning, cognitive ability, and self-reported activity engagement. Multilevel modeling revealed that age-typical changes in health, sensory functions, and ability were associated with changes in motivation, with the impact of declining health on motivation being particularly strong in older adulthood. Changes in motivation, in turn, predicted involvement in cognitive and social activities as well as changes in cognitive ability. Finally, motivation was observed to partially mediate the relationship between changes in resources and cognitively demanding activities. Our results suggest that motivation may play an important role in determining the course of cognitive change and involvement in cognitively demanding everyday activities in adulthood.

Brain activity in the right-frontal pole and lateral occipital cortex predicts successful post-operatory outcome after surgery for anterior glenoumeral instability.

PubMed

Zanchi, Davide; Cunningham, Gregory; Lädermann, Alexandre; Ozturk, Mehmet; Hoffmeyer, Pierre; Haller, Sven

2017-03-29

Shoulder apprehension is more complex than a pure mechanical problem of the shoulder, creating a scar at the brain level that prevents the performance of specific movements. Surgery corrects for shoulder instability at the physical level, but a re-dislocation within the first year is rather common. Predicting which patient will be likely to have re-dislocation is therefore crucial. We hypothesized that the assessment of neural activity at baseline and follow-up is the key factor to predict the post-operatory outcome. 13 patients with shoulder apprehension (30.03 ± 7.64 years) underwent clinical and fMRI examination before and one year after surgery for shoulder dislocation contrasting apprehension cue videos and control videos. Data analyses included task-related general linear model (GLM) and correlations imaging results with clinical scores. Clinical examination showed decreased pain and increased shoulder functions for post-op vs. pre-op. Coherently, GLM results show decreased activation of the left pre-motor cortex for post-surgery vs. pre-surgery. Right-frontal pole and right-occipital cortex activity predicts good recovery of shoulder function measured by STT. Our findings demonstrate that beside physical changes, changes at the brain level also occur one year after surgery. In particular, decreased activity in pre-motor and orbito-frontal cortex is key factor for a successful post-operatory outcome.

Predicting the effect of urban noise on the active space of avian vocal signals.

PubMed

Parris, Kirsten M; McCarthy, Michael A

2013-10-01

Urbanization changes the physical environment of nonhuman species but also markedly changes their acoustic environment. Urban noise interferes with acoustic communication in a range of animals, including birds, with potentially profound impacts on fitness. However, a mechanistic theory to predict which species of birds will be most affected by urban noise is lacking. We develop a mathematical model to predict the decrease in the active space of avian vocal signals after moving from quiet forest habitats to noisy urban habitats. We find that the magnitude of the decrease is largely a function of signal frequency. However, this relationship is not monotonic. A metaregression of observed increases in the frequency of birdsong in urban noise supports the model's predictions for signals with frequencies between 1.5 and 4 kHz. Using results of the metaregression and the model described above, we show that the expected gain in active space following observed frequency shifts is up to 12% and greatest for birds with signals at the lower end of this frequency range. Our generally applicable model, along with three predictions regarding the behavioral and population-level responses of birds to urban noise, represents an important step toward a theory of acoustic communication in urban habitats.

Do self- or parent-reported dietary, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors predict worsening obesity in children?

PubMed

Dorsey, Karen B; Mauldon, Maria; Magraw, Ruth; Yu, Sunkyung; Krumholz, Harlan M

2010-10-01

To determine whether information gathered during routine healthcare visits regarding obesity related risk factors and risk behaviors predicts increases in BMI z-score over time among overweight and obese children. Medical records from 168 overweight and 441 obese patients seen for repeated visits between September 2003 and April 2006 were examined for reported dietary, physical activity, and sedentary behaviors, family history of obesity and diabetes mellitus, documented Acanthosis nigricans, and BMI values. Random-effects regression analysis was done to determine whether demographic, familial, or behavioral data predicted changes in BMI z-score over time. The presence of A nigricans and a family history of obesity were associated with an increase in BMI z-score (beta=0.56, SE=0.09, P<.001 and beta=0.31, SE=0.13, P=.021). These risk factors explained 8% and 7% of the variation in BMI z-score respectively. Self- or parent-reported dietary and physical activity behaviors did not predict change in BMI z-score. Our findings suggest that the risk factors and self- or parent-reported risk behaviors routinely assessed by pediatric clinicians have limited ability to predict future growth trends, demonstrating the difficulty in determining which patients have the greatest risk of progression of obesity. Copyright (c) 2010 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Stress Cardiac Magnetic Resonance Imaging on Clinical Care

PubMed Central

McGraw, Sloane; Romano, Simone; Jue, Jennifer; Bauml, Michael A; Chung, Jaehoon; Farzaneh-Far, Afshin

2016-01-01

Given the rising costs of imaging, there is increasing pressure to provide evidence for direct additive impact on clinical care. Appropriate use criteria (AUC) were developed to optimize test-patient selection, and are increasingly used by payers to assess reimbursement. However, these criteria were created by expert consensus with limited systematic validation. The aims of this study were therefore to determine: 1) rates of active clinical change resulting from stress cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging; and 2) whether the AUC can predict these changes. We prospectively enrolled 350 consecutive outpatients referred for stress CMR. Categories of “active changes in clinical care” due to stress CMR were pre-defined. Appropriateness was classified according to the 2013 AUC. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with active change. Overall, stress CMR led to an active change in clinical care in about 70% of patients. Rates of change in clinical care did not vary significantly across AUC categories (p=0.767). In a multivariable model adjusting for clinical variables and AUC, only ischemia (OR 6.896, 95% CI 2.637–18.032, p<0.001), known CAD (OR 0.300, 95% CI 0.161–0.559, p<0.001), and age (OR 0.977, 95% CI 0.954–1.000, p=0.050) independently predicted significant clinical change. In conclusion, stress CMR made a significant impact on clinical management, resulting in active change in clinical care in about 70% of patients. AUC categories were not an independent predictor of clinical change. Clinical change was independently associated with presence of ischemia, absence of known CAD, and younger age. PMID:27476576

Alter spontaneous activity in amygdala and vmPFC during fear consolidation following 24 h sleep deprivation.

PubMed

Feng, Pan; Becker, Benjamin; Feng, Tingyong; Zheng, Yong

2018-05-15

Sleep deprivation (SD) has been associated with cognitive and emotional disruptions, however its impact on the acquisition of fear and subsequent fear memory consolidation remain unknown. To address this question, we measured human brain activity before and after fear acquisition under conditions of 24 h sleep deprivation versus normal sleep using resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI). Additionally, we explored whether the fear acquisition-induced change of brain activity during the fear memory consolidation window can be predicted by subjective fear ratings and autonomic fear response, assessed by skin conductance responses (SCR) during acquisition. Behaviorally, the SD group demonstrated increased subjective and autonomic fear responses compared to controls at the stage of fear acquisition. During the stage of fear consolidation, the SD group displayed decreased ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) activity and concomitantly increased amygdala activity. Moreover, in the SD group fear acquisition-induced brain activity changes in amygdala were positively correlated with both, subjective and autonomic fear indices during acquisition, whereas in controls changes vmPFC activity were positively correlated with fear indices during acquisition. Together, the present findings suggested that SD may weaken the top-down ability of the vmPFC to regulate amygdala activity during fear memory consolidation. Moreover, subjective and objective fear at fear acquisition stage can predict the change of brain activity in amygdala in fear memory consolidation following SD. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability of Coastal Wetlands in the Southeastern United States: Climate Change Research Results, 1992-97.

DTIC Science & Technology

1998-09-01

pro- jected to have significant regional impacts on resource management and use of these public lands . Southeastern coastal wetlands have also... land tree and shrub species. Measures of plant physiological activity using experi- mentally simulated environmental conditions predicted to occur...Hence, short- term rates of marsh transgression may be meaningless and may not be useful tools to predict wetland habitat change, at least for some

Predicting mountain lion activity using radiocollars equipped with mercury tip-sensors

USGS Publications Warehouse

Janis, Michael W.; Clark, Joseph D.; Johnson, Craig

1999-01-01

Radiotelemetry collars with tip-sensors have long been used to monitor wildlife activity. However, comparatively few researchers have tested the reliability of the technique on the species being studied. To evaluate the efficacy of using tip-sensors to assess mountain lion (Puma concolor) activity, we radiocollared 2 hand-reared mountain lions and simultaneously recorded their behavior and the associated telemetry signal characteristics. We noted both the number of pulse-rate changes and the percentage of time the transmitter emitted a fast pulse rate (i.e., head up) within sampling intervals ranging from 1-5 minutes. Based on 27 hours of observations, we were able to correctly distinguish between active and inactive behaviors >93% of the time using a logistic regression model. We present several models to predict activity of mountain lions; the selection of which to us would depend on study objectives and logistics. Our results indicate that field protocols that use only pulse-rate changes to indicate activity can lead to significant classification errors.

Advancing Environmental Prediction Capabilities for the Polar Regions and Beyond during The Year of Polar Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Werner, Kirstin; Goessling, Helge; Hoke, Winfried; Kirchhoff, Katharina; Jung, Thomas

2017-04-01

Environmental changes in polar regions open up new opportunities for economic and societal operations such as vessel traffic related to scientific, fishery and tourism activities, and in the case of the Arctic also enhanced resource development. The availability of current and accurate weather and environmental information and forecasts will therefore play an increasingly important role in aiding risk reduction and safety management around the poles. The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP) has been established by the World Meteorological Organization's World Weather Research Programme as the key activity of the ten-year Polar Prediction Project (PPP; see more on www.polarprediction.net). YOPP is an internationally coordinated initiative to significantly advance our environmental prediction capabilities for the polar regions and beyond, supporting improved weather and climate services. Scheduled to take place from mid-2017 to mid-2019, the YOPP core phase covers an extended period of intensive observing, modelling, prediction, verification, user-engagement and education activities in the Arctic and Antarctic, on a wide range of time scales from hours to seasons. The Year of Polar Prediction will entail periods of enhanced observational and modelling campaigns in both polar regions. With the purpose to close the gaps in the conventional polar observing systems in regions where the observation network is sparse, routine observations will be enhanced during Special Observing Periods for an extended period of time (several weeks) during YOPP. This will allow carrying out subsequent forecasting system experiments aimed at optimizing observing systems in the polar regions and providing insight into the impact of better polar observations on forecast skills in lower latitudes. With various activities and the involvement of a wide range of stakeholders, YOPP will contribute to the knowledge base needed to managing the opportunities and risks that come with polar climate change.

Sediment bacterial community structures and their predicted functions implied the impacts from natural processes and anthropogenic activities in coastal area.

PubMed

Su, Zhiguo; Dai, Tianjiao; Tang, Yushi; Tao, Yile; Huang, Bei; Mu, Qinglin; Wen, Donghui

2018-06-01

Coastal ecosystem structures and functions are changing under natural and anthropogenic influences. In this study, surface sediment samples were collected from disturbed zone (DZ), near estuary zone (NEZ), and far estuary zone (FEZ) of Hangzhou Bay, one of the most seriously polluted bays in China. The bacterial community structures and predicted functions varied significantly in different zones. Firmicutes were found most abundantly in DZ, highlighting the impacts of anthropogenic activities. Sediment total phosphorus was most influential on the bacterial community structures. Predicted by PICRUSt analysis, DZ significantly exceeded FEZ and NEZ in the subcategory of Xenobiotics Biodegradation and Metabolism; and DZ enriched all the nitrate reduction related genes, except nrfA gene. Seawater salinity and inorganic nitrogen, respectively as the representative natural and anthropogenic factor, performed exact-oppositely in nitrogen metabolism functions. The changes of bacterial community compositions and predicted functions provide a new insight into human-induced pollution impacts on coastal ecosystem. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cognitive biases to healthy and unhealthy food words predict change in BMI.

PubMed

Calitri, Raff; Pothos, Emmanuel M; Tapper, Katy; Brunstrom, Jeffrey M; Rogers, Peter J

2010-12-01

The current study explored the predictive value of cognitive biases to food cues (assessed by emotional Stroop and dot probe tasks) on weight change over a 1-year period. This was a longitudinal study with undergraduate students (N = 102) living in shared student accommodation. After controlling for the effects of variables associated with weight (e.g., physical activity, stress, restrained eating, external eating, and emotional eating), no effects of cognitive bias were found with the dot probe. However, for the emotional Stroop, cognitive bias to unhealthy foods predicted an increase in BMI whereas cognitive bias to healthy foods was associated with a decrease in BMI. Results parallel findings in substance abuse research; cognitive biases appear to predict behavior change. Accordingly, future research should consider strategies for attentional retraining, encouraging individuals to reorient attention away from unhealthy eating cues.

Global Change Impacts on Future Fire Regimes: Distinguishing Between Climate-limited vs Ignition-Limited Landscapes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keeley, J. E.; Syphard, A. D.

2016-12-01

Global warming is expected to exacerbate fire impacts. Predicting how climates will impact future fire regimes requires an understanding of how temperature and precipitation interact to control fire activity. Inevitably this requires historical analyses that relate annual burning to climate variation. Within climatically homogeneous subregions, montane forested landscapes show strong relationships between annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation with area burned, however, this is strongly seasonal dependent; e.g., winter temperatures have very little or no effect but spring and summer temperatures are critical. Climate models are needed that predict future seasonal temperature changes if we are to forecast future fire regimes in these forests. Climate does not appear to be a major determinant of fire activity on all landscapes. Lower elevations and lower latitudes show little or no increase in fire activity with hotter and drier conditions. On these landscapes climate is not usually limiting to fires but these vegetation types are ignition-limited, and because they are closely juxtaposed with human habitations fire regimes are more strongly controlled by other direct anthropogenic impacts. Predicting future fire regimes is not rocket science, it is far more complicated than that. Climate change is not relevant on some landscapes, but where climate is relevant the relationship will change due to direct climate effects on vegetation trajectories, as well as by feedback processes of fire effects on vegetation distribution, plus policy changes in how we manage ecosystems.

School-based study found that physical activity and aerobic fitness predicted increases in total body fat and abdominal fat at a mean age of 9.8 years.

PubMed

Danielson, Anton; Thorsson, Ola; Karlsson, Magnus K; Wollmer, Per; Andersen, Lars B; Dencker, Magnus

2018-02-22

We assessed whether baseline measurements of physical activity, aerobic fitness, body fat and abdominal fat were predictors of changes in body fat measurements over a two-year period. The study comprised of 204 children aged 9.8 ± 0.6 years with a normal body mass distribution, who recruited from four schools in middle-class areas of Malmö, Sweden, from 2001 to 2004. Peak oxygen uptake and physical activity were measured at baseline. Body fat was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at baseline and two years later. Physical activity, aerobic fitness and total body fat or abdominal fat were predictors of change in total body fat or abdominal fat over a period of two years. Changes in the percentage of body fat were not related to any of the baseline measurements. Our two-year follow-up of children with a mean age of 9.8 years at baseline showed that physical activity, aerobic fitness and body fat or abdominal fat predicted changes in total body fat or abdominal fat, but not the percentage of body fat. ©2018 Foundation Acta Paediatrica. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Functional MR imaging or Wada test: which is the better predictor of individual postoperative memory outcome?

PubMed

Dupont, Sophie; Duron, Emmanuelle; Samson, Séverine; Denos, Marisa; Volle, Emmanuelle; Delmaire, Christine; Navarro, Vincent; Chiras, Jacques; Lehéricy, Stéphane; Samson, Yves; Baulac, Michel

2010-04-01

To retrospectively determine whether blood oxygen level-dependent functional magnetic resonance (MR) imaging can aid prediction of postoperative memory changes in epileptic patients after temporal lobe surgery. This study was approved by the local ethics committee, and informed consent was obtained from all patients. Data were analyzed from 25 patients (12 women, 13 men; age range, 19-52 years) with refractory epilepsy in whom temporal lobe surgery was performed after they underwent preoperative functional MR imaging, the Wada test, and neuropsychological testing. The functional MR imaging protocol included three different memory tasks (24-hour delayed recognition, encoding, and immediate recognition). Individual activations were measured in medial temporal lobe (MTL) regions of both hemispheres. The prognostic accuracy of functional MR imaging for prediction of postoperative memory changes was compared with the accuracy of the Wada test and preoperative neuropsychological testing by using a backward multiple regression analysis. An equation that was based on left functional MR imaging MTL activation during delayed recognition, side of the epileptic focus, and preoperative global verbal memory score was used to correctly predict worsening of verbal memory in 90% of patients. The right functional MR imaging MTL activation did not substantially correlate with the nonverbal memory outcome, which was only predicted by using the preoperative nonverbal global score. Wada test data were not good predictors of changes in either verbal or nonverbal memory. Findings suggest that functional MR imaging activation during a delayed-recognition task is a better predictor of individual postoperative verbal memory outcome than is the Wada test. RSNA, 2010

Imaging systems level consolidation of novel associate memories: A longitudinal neuroimaging study

PubMed Central

Smith, Jason F; Alexander, Gene E; Chen, Kewei; Husain, Fatima T; Kim, Jieun; Pajor, Nathan; Horwitz, Barry

2010-01-01

Previously, a standard theory of systems level memory consolidation was developed to describe how memory recall becomes independent of the medial temporal memory system. More recently, an extended consolidation theory was proposed that predicts seven changes in regional neural activity and inter-regional functional connectivity. Using longitudinal event related functional magnetic resonance imaging of an associate memory task, we simultaneously tested all predictions and additionally tested for consolidation related changes in recall of associate memories at a sub-trial temporal resolution, analyzing cue, delay and target periods of each trial separately. Results consistent with the theoretical predictions were observed though two inconsistent results were also obtained. In particular, while recall-related delay period activity decreased with consolidation as predicted, visual cue activity increased for consolidated memories. Though the extended theory of memory consolidation is largely supported by our study, these results suggest the extended theory needs further refinement and the medial temporal memory system has multiple, temporally distinct roles in associate memory recall. Neuroimaging analysis at a sub-trial temporal resolution, as used here, may further clarify the role of the hippocampal complex in memory consolidation. PMID:19948227

A network of molecular switches controls the activation of the two-component response regulator NtrC

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vanatta, Dan K.; Shukla, Diwakar; Lawrenz, Morgan; Pande, Vijay S.

2015-06-01

Recent successes in simulating protein structure and folding dynamics have demonstrated the power of molecular dynamics to predict the long timescale behaviour of proteins. Here, we extend and improve these methods to predict molecular switches that characterize conformational change pathways between the active and inactive state of nitrogen regulatory protein C (NtrC). By employing unbiased Markov state model-based molecular dynamics simulations, we construct a dynamic picture of the activation pathways of this key bacterial signalling protein that is consistent with experimental observations and predicts new mutants that could be used for validation of the mechanism. Moreover, these results suggest a novel mechanistic paradigm for conformational switching.

Historical precipitation predictably alters the shape and magnitude of microbial functional response to soil moisture.

PubMed

Averill, Colin; Waring, Bonnie G; Hawkes, Christine V

2016-05-01

Soil moisture constrains the activity of decomposer soil microorganisms, and in turn the rate at which soil carbon returns to the atmosphere. While increases in soil moisture are generally associated with increased microbial activity, historical climate may constrain current microbial responses to moisture. However, it is not known if variation in the shape and magnitude of microbial functional responses to soil moisture can be predicted from historical climate at regional scales. To address this problem, we measured soil enzyme activity at 12 sites across a broad climate gradient spanning 442-887 mm mean annual precipitation. Measurements were made eight times over 21 months to maximize sampling during different moisture conditions. We then fit saturating functions of enzyme activity to soil moisture and extracted half saturation and maximum activity parameter values from model fits. We found that 50% of the variation in maximum activity parameters across sites could be predicted by 30-year mean annual precipitation, an indicator of historical climate, and that the effect is independent of variation in temperature, soil texture, or soil carbon concentration. Based on this finding, we suggest that variation in the shape and magnitude of soil microbial response to soil moisture due to historical climate may be remarkably predictable at regional scales, and this approach may extend to other systems. If historical contingencies on microbial activities prove to be persistent in the face of environmental change, this approach also provides a framework for incorporating historical climate effects into biogeochemical models simulating future global change scenarios. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting Thermal Regimes of Stream Networks Across New England: Natural and Anthropogenic Influences

EPA Science Inventory

Thermal regime is a critical factor in models predicting joint effects of watershed management activities and climate change on habitat suitability for fish. We used a database of lotic temperature time series across New England (> 7000 station-year combinations) from state a...

Isolation predicts compositional change after discrete disturbances in a global meta-study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Globally, anthropogenic disturbances are occurring at unprecedented rates and over extensive spatial and temporal scales. Human activities also affect natural disturbances, prompting shifts in their timing and intensities. Thus, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the response of ecosy...

Proceedings, 1995 meeting of the Northern Global Change Program; 1995 March 14-16; Pittsburgh, PA. : Introduction/Environmental Change

Treesearch

John Hom; Richard Birdsey; Kelly O' Brian; eds.

1996-01-01

Contains articles presented at the 1995 Northern Global Change Program meeting on the following topics: monitoring and predicting regional environmental change, responses of northern tree species to regional stress, responses of ecosystem processes to regional stress, forest and landscape responses to regional stress and management activities, human-forest interactions...

Plastic changes following imitation-based speech and language therapy for aphasia: a high-density sleep EEG study.

PubMed

Sarasso, Simone; Määttä, Sara; Ferrarelli, Fabio; Poryazova, Rositsa; Tononi, Giulio; Small, Steven L

2014-02-01

BACKGROUND OBJECTIVE: measurement of plastic brain changes induced by a novel rehabilitative approach is a key requirement for validating its biological rationale linking the potential therapeutic gains to the changes in brain physiology. Based on an emerging notion linking cortical plastic changes to EEG sleep slow-wave activity (SWA) regulation, we aimed to assess the acute plastic changes induced by an imitation-based speech therapy in individuals with aphasia by comparing sleep SWA changes before and after therapy. A total of 13 left-hemispheric stroke patients underwent language assessment with the Western Aphasia Battery (WAB) before and after 2 consecutive high-density (hd) EEG sleep recordings interleaved by a daytime session of imitation-based speech therapy (Intensive Mouth Imitation and Talking for Aphasia Therapeutic Effects [IMITATE]). This protocol is thought to stimulate bilateral connections between the inferior parietal lobule and the ventral premotor areas. A single exposure to IMITATE resulted in increases in local EEG SWA during subsequent sleep over the same regions predicted by the therapeutic rationale, particularly over the right hemisphere (unaffected by the lesion). Furthermore, changes in SWA over the left-precentral areas predicted changes in WAB repetition scores in our group, supporting the role of perilesional areas in predicting positive functional responses. Our results suggest that SWA changes occurring in brain areas activated during imitation-based aphasia therapy may reflect the acute plastic changes induced by this intervention. Further testing will be needed to evaluate SWA as a non-invasive assessment of changes induced by the therapy and as a predictor of positive long-term clinical outcome.

Automatic assessment of functional health decline in older adults based on smart home data.

PubMed

Alberdi Aramendi, Ane; Weakley, Alyssa; Aztiria Goenaga, Asier; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen; Cook, Diane J

2018-05-01

In the context of an aging population, tools to help elderly to live independently must be developed. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the possibility of using unobtrusively collected activity-aware smart home behavioral data to automatically detect one of the most common consequences of aging: functional health decline. After gathering the longitudinal smart home data of 29 older adults for an average of >2 years, we automatically labeled the data with corresponding activity classes and extracted time-series statistics containing 10 behavioral features. Using this data, we created regression models to predict absolute and standardized functional health scores, as well as classification models to detect reliable absolute change and positive and negative fluctuations in everyday functioning. Functional health was assessed every six months by means of the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living-Compensation (IADL-C) scale. Results show that total IADL-C score and subscores can be predicted by means of activity-aware smart home data, as well as a reliable change in these scores. Positive and negative fluctuations in everyday functioning are harder to detect using in-home behavioral data, yet changes in social skills have shown to be predictable. Future work must focus on improving the sensitivity of the presented models and performing an in-depth feature selection to improve overall accuracy. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils.

PubMed

Weedon, James T; Aerts, Rien; Kowalchuk, George A; van Bodegom, Peter M

2011-01-01

Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding the response of the soil nitrogen cycle to shifts in temperature and other global change factors is crucial for predicting the fate of cold biome carbon stores. Measurements of soil enzyme activities at different positions of the nitrogen cycling network are an important tool for this purpose. We review a selection of studies that provide data on potential enzyme activities across natural, seasonal and experimental gradients in cold biomes. Responses of enzyme activities to increased nitrogen availability and temperature are diverse and seasonal dynamics are often larger than differences due to experimental treatments, suggesting that enzyme expression is regulated by a combination of interacting factors reflecting both nutrient supply and demand. The extrapolation from potential enzyme activities to prediction of elemental nitrogen fluxes under field conditions remains challenging. Progress in molecular '-omics' approaches may eventually facilitate deeper understanding of the links between soil microbial community structure and biogeochemical fluxes. In the meantime, accounting for effects of the soil spatial structure and in situ variations in pH and temperature, better mapping of the network of enzymatic processes and the identification of rate-limiting steps under different conditions should advance our ability to predict nitrogen fluxes.

Family characteristics predicting favourable changes in 10 and 11-year-old children's lifestyle-related health behaviours during an 18-month follow-up.

PubMed

Ray, Carola; Roos, Eva

2012-02-01

Lifestyle-related health behaviours such as screen time, physical activity, sleep duration, and food intake tend to change into non-favourable directions when children become young adolescents. Cross-sectional studies show that family characteristics are important determinants for children's health behaviours. This study examined whether family characteristics such as parenting practices at meals and family involvement predict a more favourable change in children's lifestyle-related health behaviours during an 18-month follow-up. 745 children in school grades 4 and 5 (response rate 65%) filled in a baseline questionnaire in the autumn of 2006. A follow-up was conducted in the spring of 2008 (91%). Several health behaviours had changed in a non-favourable direction. Baseline parenting practices at meals and family involvement predicted some of the changes in the lifestyle-related health behaviours in 2008. Parenting practices at meals predicted a smaller increase in TV, DVD viewing time, and a smaller decrease in fruit intake. Amongst family involvement determinants, less time alone at home after school predicted a smaller increase in screen time, a smaller decrease in sleep duration, and a smaller increase in soft drink intake. For conclusion several family characteristics predicted favourable changes in children's lifestyle-related health behaviours. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Approximation of the Error Backpropagation Algorithm in a Predictive Coding Network with Local Hebbian Synaptic Plasticity

PubMed Central

Whittington, James C. R.; Bogacz, Rafal

2017-01-01

To efficiently learn from feedback, cortical networks need to update synaptic weights on multiple levels of cortical hierarchy. An effective and well-known algorithm for computing such changes in synaptic weights is the error backpropagation algorithm. However, in this algorithm, the change in synaptic weights is a complex function of weights and activities of neurons not directly connected with the synapse being modified, whereas the changes in biological synapses are determined only by the activity of presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons. Several models have been proposed that approximate the backpropagation algorithm with local synaptic plasticity, but these models require complex external control over the network or relatively complex plasticity rules. Here we show that a network developed in the predictive coding framework can efficiently perform supervised learning fully autonomously, employing only simple local Hebbian plasticity. Furthermore, for certain parameters, the weight change in the predictive coding model converges to that of the backpropagation algorithm. This suggests that it is possible for cortical networks with simple Hebbian synaptic plasticity to implement efficient learning algorithms in which synapses in areas on multiple levels of hierarchy are modified to minimize the error on the output. PMID:28333583

An Approximation of the Error Backpropagation Algorithm in a Predictive Coding Network with Local Hebbian Synaptic Plasticity.

PubMed

Whittington, James C R; Bogacz, Rafal

2017-05-01

To efficiently learn from feedback, cortical networks need to update synaptic weights on multiple levels of cortical hierarchy. An effective and well-known algorithm for computing such changes in synaptic weights is the error backpropagation algorithm. However, in this algorithm, the change in synaptic weights is a complex function of weights and activities of neurons not directly connected with the synapse being modified, whereas the changes in biological synapses are determined only by the activity of presynaptic and postsynaptic neurons. Several models have been proposed that approximate the backpropagation algorithm with local synaptic plasticity, but these models require complex external control over the network or relatively complex plasticity rules. Here we show that a network developed in the predictive coding framework can efficiently perform supervised learning fully autonomously, employing only simple local Hebbian plasticity. Furthermore, for certain parameters, the weight change in the predictive coding model converges to that of the backpropagation algorithm. This suggests that it is possible for cortical networks with simple Hebbian synaptic plasticity to implement efficient learning algorithms in which synapses in areas on multiple levels of hierarchy are modified to minimize the error on the output.

Changes in Appetitive Associative Strength Modulates Nucleus Accumbens, But Not Orbitofrontal Cortex Neuronal Ensemble Excitability.

PubMed

Ziminski, Joseph J; Hessler, Sabine; Margetts-Smith, Gabriella; Sieburg, Meike C; Crombag, Hans S; Koya, Eisuke

2017-03-22

Cues that predict the availability of food rewards influence motivational states and elicit food-seeking behaviors. If a cue no longer predicts food availability, then animals may adapt accordingly by inhibiting food-seeking responses. Sparsely activated sets of neurons, coined "neuronal ensembles," have been shown to encode the strength of reward-cue associations. Although alterations in intrinsic excitability have been shown to underlie many learning and memory processes, little is known about these properties specifically on cue-activated neuronal ensembles. We examined the activation patterns of cue-activated orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) and nucleus accumbens (NAc) shell ensembles using wild-type and Fos-GFP mice, which express green fluorescent protein (GFP) in activated neurons, after appetitive conditioning with sucrose and extinction learning. We also investigated the neuronal excitability of recently activated, GFP+ neurons in these brain areas using whole-cell electrophysiology in brain slices. Exposure to a sucrose cue elicited activation of neurons in both the NAc shell and OFC. In the NAc shell, but not the OFC, these activated GFP+ neurons were more excitable than surrounding GFP- neurons. After extinction, the number of neurons activated in both areas was reduced and activated ensembles in neither area exhibited altered excitability. These data suggest that learning-induced alterations in the intrinsic excitability of neuronal ensembles is regulated dynamically across different brain areas. Furthermore, we show that changes in associative strength modulate the excitability profile of activated ensembles in the NAc shell. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Sparsely distributed sets of neurons called "neuronal ensembles" encode learned associations about food and cues predictive of its availability. Widespread changes in neuronal excitability have been observed in limbic brain areas after associative learning, but little is known about the excitability changes that occur specifically on neuronal ensembles that encode appetitive associations. Here, we reveal that sucrose cue exposure recruited a more excitable ensemble in the nucleus accumbens, but not orbitofrontal cortex, compared with their surrounding neurons. This excitability difference was not observed when the cue's salience was diminished after extinction learning. These novel data provide evidence that the intrinsic excitability of appetitive memory-encoding ensembles is regulated differentially across brain areas and adapts dynamically to changes in associative strength. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/373160-11$15.00/0.

When is an Inhibitory Synapse Effective?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Ning; Sejnowski, Terrence J.

1990-10-01

Interactions between excitatory and inhibitory synaptic inputs on dendrites determine the level of activity in neurons. Models based on the cable equation predict that silent shunting inhibition can strongly veto the effect of an excitatory input. The cable model assumes that ionic concentrations do not change during the electrical activity, which may not be a valid assumption, especially for small structures such as dendritic spines. We present here an analysis and computer simulations to show that for large Cl^- conductance changes, the more general Nernst-Planck electrodiffusion model predicts that shunting inhibition on spines should be much less effective than that predicted by the cable model. This is a consequence of the large changes in the intracellular ionic concentration of Cl^- that can occur in small structures, which would alter the reversal potential and reduce the driving force for Cl^-. Shunting inhibition should therefore not be effective on spines, but it could be significantly more effective on the dendritic shaft at the base of the spine. In contrast to shunting inhibition, hyperpolarizing synaptic inhibition mediated by K^+ currents can be very effective in reducing the excitatory synaptic potentials on the same spine if the excitatory conductance change is less than 10 nS. We predict that if the inhibitory synapses found on cortical spines are to be effective, then they should be mediated by K^+ through GABA_B receptors.

Medial Prefrontal Cortex Reduces Memory Interference by Modifying Hippocampal Encoding

PubMed Central

Guise, Kevin G.; Shapiro, Matthew L.

2017-01-01

Summary The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is crucial for accurate memory performance when prior knowledge interferes with new learning, but the mechanisms that minimize proactive interference are unknown. To investigate these, we assessed the influence of medial PFC (mPFC) activity on spatial learning and hippocampal coding in a plus maze task that requires both structures. mPFC inactivation did not impair spatial learning or retrieval per se, but impaired the ability to follow changing spatial rules. mPFC and CA1 ensembles recorded simultaneously predicted goal choices and tracked changing rules; inactivating mPFC attenuated CA1 prospective coding. mPFC activity modified CA1 codes during learning, which in turn predicted how quickly rats adapted to subsequent rule changes. The results suggest that task rules signaled by the mPFC become incorporated into hippocampal representations and support prospective coding. By this mechanism, mPFC activity prevents interference by “teaching” the hippocampus to retrieve distinct representations of similar circumstances. PMID:28343868

Observational Constraints on Cloud Feedbacks: The Role of Active Satellite Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Winker, David; Chepfer, Helene; Noel, Vincent; Cai, Xia

2017-11-01

Cloud profiling from active lidar and radar in the A-train satellite constellation has significantly advanced our understanding of clouds and their role in the climate system. Nevertheless, the response of clouds to a warming climate remains one of the largest uncertainties in predicting climate change and for the development of adaptions to change. Both observation of long-term changes and observational constraints on the processes responsible for those changes are necessary. We review recent progress in our understanding of the cloud feedback problem. Capabilities and advantages of active sensors for observing clouds are discussed, along with the importance of active sensors for deriving constraints on cloud feedbacks as an essential component of a global climate observing system.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions.

PubMed

Fox, Naomi J; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S; White, Piran C L; Hutchings, Michael R

2012-03-06

Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed.

Moving Species Redundancy Toward a More Predictive Framework

EPA Science Inventory

Human activities are driving rapid changes in species diversity in a wide range of habitats globally. These changes in species diversity raise questions about the ability of altered systems to continue to offer valuable ecosystem services. Maintenance of ecosystem services unde...

A population survey on legislative measures to restrict smoking in Ontario: 4. Variables related to knowledge of active and passive smoking health effects and to predicted behavior of smokers and nonsmokers.

PubMed

Pederson, L L; Bull, S B; Ashley, M J; Lefcoe, N M

1989-01-01

Results from the further analysis of a population survey on legislative measures to restrict smoking revealed that identification of subgroups of smokers is more reliable than identification of subgroups of nonsmokers when a variety of attitudes were the measures of interest. A similar pattern emerged when analyses were carried out on knowledge of active and passive smoking health effects and on predicted personal and general compliance. Because distinct sets of variables were found to be related to distinct outcomes, program planning for changes in knowledge and behavior might, of necessity, have to be different. Media messages might be useful for changes in knowledge, while actual experience might be more important for attitude and behavior change.

Effect of pathologic revision and Ki67 and ERG immunohistochemistry on predicting radical prostatectomy outcome in men initially on active surveillance.

PubMed

Bokhorst, Leonard P; Roobol, Monique J; Bangma, Chris H; van Leenders, Geert J

2017-07-01

To investigate if pathologic biopsy reevaluation and implementation of immunohistochemical biomarkers could improve prediction of radical prostatectomy outcome in men initially on active surveillance. Biopsy specimens from diagnosis until switching to radical prostatectomy in men initially on active surveillance in the Dutch part of the Prostate cancer Research International Active Surveillance (PRIAS) study were collected and revised by a single pathologist. Original and revised biopsy Gleason score were compared and correlated with radical prostatectomy Gleason score. Biopsy specimens were immunohistochemically stained for Ki67 and ERG. Predictive ability of clinical characteristics and biomarkers on Gleason ≥7 or ≥pT3 on radical prostatectomy was tested using logistic regression and ROC curve analysis. A total of 150 biopsies in 95 men were revised. In 13% of diagnostic or second-to-last biopsies and 20% of the last biopsies on active surveillance revision of Gleason score resulted in change of recommendation (ie, active treatment or active surveillance). Concordance with Gleason score on radical prostatectomy was however similar for both the revised and original Gleason on biopsy. Ki67 and ERG were not statistically significant predictors of Gleason ≥7 or ≥pT3 on radical prostatectomy. Although interobserver differences in pathology reporting on biopsy could result in a change of management strategy in approximately 13-20% of men on active surveillance, both pathological revision and tested biomarkers (Ki67 and ERG) did not improve prediction of outcome on radical prostatectomy. Undersampling of most aggressive tumor remains the main focus in order to increase accurate grading at time of treatment decision making. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Longitudinal associations between sports participation, body composition and physical activity from childhood to adolescence

PubMed Central

Basterfield, Laura; Reilly, Jessica K.; Pearce, Mark S.; Parkinson, Kathryn N.; Adamson, Ashley J.; Reilly, John J.; Vella, Stewart A.

2015-01-01

Objectives Several important research questions have been addressed: (1) What are the cross-sectional associations between sports club participation, objectively measured physical activity, and adiposity? (2) Do measures of physical activity and adiposity predict subsequent sports club participation? (3) Does sports club participation predict subsequent measures of physical activity and adiposity? and (4) Do changes in sports club participation predict changes in objective measures of physical activity and adiposity? Design Longitudinal and cross-sectional. Methods Data from the Gateshead Millennium Study birth cohort (n = 609 at age 7 years) were analysed for associations between adiposity, sports club participation and accelerometer-measured physical activity from ages 7y to 9y to 12y. Results Seventy-two per cent of 9 year olds and 63% of 12 year olds took part in a sports club. Sports club participation was significantly associated with overall accelerometer-measured physical activity at 12y (coefficient = 0.0.09; 95% CI: 0.01–0.16) but not 9y. An inverse relationship between fat mass (estimated from bioelectric impedance) and sport club participation, and between fat mass and accelerometer-measured physical activity was observed at 12y, but not 9y. Sports club participation at 9y was highly predictive of participation at 12y. Sports club participation was significantly associated with socioeconomic status; fewer children from poorer areas took part. Conclusions Sports club participation in adolescence may be associated with decreased levels of adiposity. Furthermore, the potential benefits of sports club participation for adiposity are likely generated from continuous participation in sports, rather than any long-term protective effects. PMID:24704422

Predicting thermal regimes of stream networks across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed: Natural and anthropogenic influences

EPA Science Inventory

Thermal regimes are a critical factor in models predicting joint effects of watershed management activities and climate change on fish habitat suitability. We have compiled a database of lotic temperature time series across the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (725 station-year combinat...

JPL's Role in Advancing Earth System Science to Meet the Challenges of Climate and Environmental Change

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Evans, Diane

2012-01-01

Objective 2.1.1: Improve understanding of and improve the predictive capability for changes in the ozone layer, climate forcing, and air quality associated with changes in atmospheric composition. Objective 2.1.2: Enable improved predictive capability for weather and extreme weather events. Objective 2.1.3: Quantify, understand, and predict changes in Earth s ecosystems and biogeochemical cycles, including the global carbon cycle, land cover, and biodiversity. Objective 2.1.4: Quantify the key reservoirs and fluxes in the global water cycle and assess water cycle change and water quality. Objective 2.1.5: Improve understanding of the roles of the ocean, atmosphere, land and ice in the climate system and improve predictive capability for its future evolution. Objective 2.1.6: Characterize the dynamics of Earth s surface and interior and form the scientific basis for the assessment and mitigation of natural hazards and response to rare and extreme events. Objective 2.1.7: Enable the broad use of Earth system science observations and results in decision-making activities for societal benefits.

Classification of change detection and change blindness from near-infrared spectroscopy signals

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanaka, Hirokazu; Katura, Takusige

2011-08-01

Using a machine-learning classification algorithm applied to near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) signals, we classify a success (change detection) or a failure (change blindness) in detecting visual changes for a change-detection task. Five subjects perform a change-detection task, and their brain activities are continuously monitored. A support-vector-machine algorithm is applied to classify the change-detection and change-blindness trials, and correct classification probability of 70-90% is obtained for four subjects. Two types of temporal shapes in classification probabilities are found: one exhibiting a maximum value after the task is completed (postdictive type), and another exhibiting a maximum value during the task (predictive type). As for the postdictive type, the classification probability begins to increase immediately after the task completion and reaches its maximum in about the time scale of neuronal hemodynamic response, reflecting a subjective report of change detection. As for the predictive type, the classification probability shows an increase at the task initiation and is maximal while subjects are performing the task, predicting the task performance in detecting a change. We conclude that decoding change detection and change blindness from NIRS signal is possible and argue some future applications toward brain-machine interfaces.

Individual differences in cognitive functioning predict effectiveness of a heads-up Lane Departure Warning for younger and older drivers

PubMed Central

Aksan, Nazan; Sager, Lauren; Hacker, Sarah; Lester, Benjamin; Dawson, Jeffrey; Rizzo, Matthew; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

2016-01-01

The effectiveness of an idealized lane departure warning (LDW) was evaluated in an interactive fixed base driving simulator. Thirty-eight older (mean age = 77 years) and 40 younger drivers (mean age = 35 years) took four different drives/routes similar in road culture composition and hazards encountered with and without LDW. The four drives were administered over visits separated approximately by two weeks to examine changes in long-term effectiveness of LDW. Performance metrics were number of LDW activations and average correction time to each LDW. LDW reduced correction time to re-center the vehicle by 1.34 seconds on average (95% CI = 1.12–1.57 seconds) but did not reduce the number of times the drivers drifted enough in their lanes to activate the system (LDW activations). The magnitude of reductions in average correction RT was similar for older and younger drivers and did not change with repeated exposures across visits. The contribution of individual differences in basic visual and motor function, as well as cognitive function to safety gains from LDW was also examined. Cognitive speed of processing predicted lane keeping performance for older and younger drivers. Differences in memory, visuospatial construction, and executive function tended to predict performance differences among older but not younger drivers. Cognitive functioning did not predict changes in the magnitude of safety benefits from LDW over time. Implications are discussed with respect to real-world safety systems. PMID:27898370

Individual differences in cognitive functioning predict effectiveness of a heads-up lane departure warning for younger and older drivers.

PubMed

Aksan, Nazan; Sager, Lauren; Hacker, Sarah; Lester, Benjamin; Dawson, Jeffrey; Rizzo, Matthew; Ebe, Kazutoshi; Foley, James

2017-02-01

The effectiveness of an idealized lane departure warning (LDW) was evaluated in an interactive fixed base driving simulator. Thirty-eight older (mean age=77years) and 40 younger drivers (mean age=35years) took four different drives/routes similar in road culture composition and hazards encountered with and without LDW. The four drives were administered over visits separated approximately by two weeks to examine changes in long-term effectiveness of LDW. Performance metrics were number of LDW activations and average correction time to each LDW. LDW reduced correction time to re-center the vehicle by 1.34s on average (95% CI=1.12-1.57s) but did not reduce the number of times the drivers drifted enough in their lanes to activate the system (LDW activations). The magnitude of reductions in average correction RT was similar for older and younger drivers and did not change with repeated exposures across visits. The contribution of individual differences in basic visual and motor function, as well as cognitive function to safety gains from LDW was also examined. Cognitive speed of processing predicted lane keeping performance for older and younger drivers. Differences in memory, visuospatial construction, and executive function tended to predict performance differences among older but not younger drivers. Cognitive functioning did not predict changes in the magnitude of safety benefits from LDW over time. Implications are discussed with respect to real-world safety systems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lateral prefrontal cortex activity during cognitive control of emotion predicts response to social stress in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Tully, Laura M.; Lincoln, Sarah Hope; Hooker, Christine I.

2014-01-01

LPFC dysfunction is a well-established neural impairment in schizophrenia and is associated with worse symptoms. However, how LPFC activation influences symptoms is unclear. Previous findings in healthy individuals demonstrate that lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) activation during cognitive control of emotional information predicts mood and behavior in response to interpersonal conflict, thus impairments in these processes may contribute to symptom exacerbation in schizophrenia. We investigated whether schizophrenia participants show LPFC deficits during cognitive control of emotional information, and whether these LPFC deficits prospectively predict changes in mood and symptoms following real-world interpersonal conflict. During fMRI, 23 individuals with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder and 24 healthy controls completed the Multi-Source Interference Task superimposed on neutral and negative pictures. Afterwards, schizophrenia participants completed a 21-day online daily-diary in which they rated the extent to which they experienced mood and schizophrenia-spectrum symptoms, as well as the occurrence and response to interpersonal conflict. Schizophrenia participants had lower dorsal LPFC activity (BA9) during cognitive control of task-irrelevant negative emotional information. Within schizophrenia participants, DLPFC activity during cognitive control of emotional information predicted changes in positive and negative mood on days following highly distressing interpersonal conflicts. Results have implications for understanding the specific role of LPFC in response to social stress in schizophrenia, and suggest that treatments targeting LPFC-mediated cognitive control of emotion could promote adaptive response to social stress in schizophrenia. PMID:25379415

Longitudinal Relationships Between Resources, Motivation, and Functioning

PubMed Central

Emery, Lisa; Neupert, Shevaun D.

2012-01-01

Objectives. We investigated how fluctuations and linear changes in health and cognitive resources influence the motivation to engage in complex cognitive activity and the extent to which motivation mediated the relationship between changing resources and cognitively demanding activities. Method. Longitudinal data from 332 adults aged 20–85 years were examined. Motivation was assessed using a composite of Need for Cognition and Personal Need for Structure and additional measures of health, sensory functioning, cognitive ability, and self-reported activity engagement. Results. Multilevel modeling revealed that age-typical changes in health, sensory functions, and ability were associated with changes in motivation, with the impact of declining health on motivation being particularly strong in older adulthood. Changes in motivation, in turn, predicted involvement in cognitive and social activities as well as changes in cognitive ability. Finally, motivation was observed to partially mediate the relationship between changes in resources and cognitively demanding activities. Discussion. Our results suggest that motivation may play an important role in determining the course of cognitive change and involvement in cognitively demanding everyday activities in adulthood. PMID:21926400

Predicting Individual Differences in Placebo Analgesia: Contributions of Brain Activity during Anticipation and Pain Experience

PubMed Central

Wager, Tor D.; Atlas, Lauren Y.; Leotti, Lauren A.; Rilling, James K.

2012-01-01

Recent studies have identified brain correlates of placebo analgesia, but none have assessed how accurately patterns of brain activity can predict individual differences in placebo responses. We reanalyzed data from two fMRI studies of placebo analgesia (N = 47), using patterns of fMRI activity during the anticipation and experience of pain to predict new subjects’ scores on placebo analgesia and placebo-induced changes in pain processing. We used a cross-validated regression procedure, LASSO-PCR, which provided both unbiased estimates of predictive accuracy and interpretable maps of which regions are most important for prediction. Increased anticipatory activity in a frontoparietal network and decreases in a posterior insular/temporal network predicted placebo analgesia. Patterns of anticipatory activity across the cortex predicted a moderate amount of variance in the placebo response (~12% overall, ~40% for study 2 alone), which is substantial considering the multiple likely contributing factors. The most predictive regions were those associated with emotional appraisal, rather than cognitive control or pain processing. During pain, decreases in limbic and paralimbic regions most strongly predicted placebo analgesia. Responses within canonical pain-processing regions explained significant variance in placebo analgesia, but the pattern of effects was inconsistent with widespread decreases in nociceptive processing. Together, the findings suggest that engagement of emotional appraisal circuits drives individual variation in placebo analgesia, rather than early suppression of nociceptive processing. This approach provides a framework that will allow prediction accuracy to increase as new studies provide more precise information for future predictive models. PMID:21228154

Four cultures: new synergies for engaging society on climate change

Treesearch

Matthew C. Nisbet; Mark A. Hixon; Kathleen Dean Moore; Michael Nelson

2010-01-01

The scientific community has largely reached consensus that climate change is real, is exacerbated by human activities, and is causing detectable shifts in both living and non-living components of the biosphere. Yet, documenting and predicting the ecological, economic, social, and cultural consequences of climate change have not yet stimulated an appropriately strong...

Controlling the hydration of the skin though the application of occluding barrier creams

PubMed Central

Sparr, Emma; Millecamps, Danielle; Isoir, Muriel; Burnier, Véronique; Larsson, Åsa; Cabane, Bernard

2013-01-01

The skin is a barrier membrane that separates environments with profoundly different water contents. The barrier properties are assured by the outer layer of the skin, the stratum corneum (SC), which controls the transepidermal water loss. The SC acts as a responding membrane, since its hydration and permeability vary with the boundary condition, which is the activity of water at the outer surface of the skin. We show how this boundary condition can be changed by the application of a barrier cream that makes a film with a high resistance to the transport of water. We present a quantitative model that predicts hydration and water transport in SC that is covered by such a film. We also develop an experimental method for measuring the specific resistance to water transport of films made of occluding barrier creams. Finally, we combine the theoretical model with the measured properties of the barrier creams to predict how a film of cream changes the activity of water at the outer surface of the SC. Using the known variations of SC permeability and hydration with the water activity in its environment (i.e. the relative humidity), we can thus predict how a film of barrier cream changes SC hydration. PMID:23269846

Controlling the hydration of the skin though the application of occluding barrier creams.

PubMed

Sparr, Emma; Millecamps, Danielle; Isoir, Muriel; Burnier, Véronique; Larsson, Åsa; Cabane, Bernard

2013-03-06

The skin is a barrier membrane that separates environments with profoundly different water contents. The barrier properties are assured by the outer layer of the skin, the stratum corneum (SC), which controls the transepidermal water loss. The SC acts as a responding membrane, since its hydration and permeability vary with the boundary condition, which is the activity of water at the outer surface of the skin. We show how this boundary condition can be changed by the application of a barrier cream that makes a film with a high resistance to the transport of water. We present a quantitative model that predicts hydration and water transport in SC that is covered by such a film. We also develop an experimental method for measuring the specific resistance to water transport of films made of occluding barrier creams. Finally, we combine the theoretical model with the measured properties of the barrier creams to predict how a film of cream changes the activity of water at the outer surface of the SC. Using the known variations of SC permeability and hydration with the water activity in its environment (i.e. the relative humidity), we can thus predict how a film of barrier cream changes SC hydration.

Adaptive Encoding of Outcome Prediction by Prefrontal Cortex Ensembles Supports Behavioral Flexibility.

PubMed

Del Arco, Alberto; Park, Junchol; Wood, Jesse; Kim, Yunbok; Moghaddam, Bita

2017-08-30

The prefrontal cortex (PFC) is thought to play a critical role in behavioral flexibility by monitoring action-outcome contingencies. How PFC ensembles represent shifts in behavior in response to changes in these contingencies remains unclear. We recorded single-unit activity and local field potentials in the dorsomedial PFC (dmPFC) of male rats during a set-shifting task that required them to update their behavior, among competing options, in response to changes in action-outcome contingencies. As behavior was updated, a subset of PFC ensembles encoded the current trial outcome before the outcome was presented. This novel outcome-prediction encoding was absent in a control task, in which actions were rewarded pseudorandomly, indicating that PFC neurons are not merely providing an expectancy signal. In both control and set-shifting tasks, dmPFC neurons displayed postoutcome discrimination activity, indicating that these neurons also monitor whether a behavior is successful in generating rewards. Gamma-power oscillatory activity increased before the outcome in both tasks but did not differentiate between expected outcomes, suggesting that this measure is not related to set-shifting behavior but reflects expectation of an outcome after action execution. These results demonstrate that PFC neurons support flexible rule-based action selection by predicting outcomes that follow a particular action. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Tracking action-outcome contingencies and modifying behavior when those contingencies change is critical to behavioral flexibility. We find that ensembles of dorsomedial prefrontal cortex neurons differentiate between expected outcomes when action-outcome contingencies change. This predictive mode of signaling may be used to promote a new response strategy at the service of behavioral flexibility. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/378363-11$15.00/0.

Method of empirical dependences in estimation and prediction of activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes in cerebral ischemia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sergeeva, Tatiana F.; Moshkova, Albina N.; Erlykina, Elena I.; Khvatova, Elena M.

2016-04-01

Creatine kinase is a key enzyme of energy metabolism in the brain. There are known cytoplasmic and mitochondrial creatine kinase isoenzymes. Mitochondrial creatine kinase exists as a mixture of two oligomeric forms - dimer and octamer. The aim of investigation was to study catalytic properties of cytoplasmic and mitochondrial creatine kinase and using of the method of empirical dependences for the possible prediction of the activity of these enzymes in cerebral ischemia. Ischemia was revealed to be accompanied with the changes of the activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes and oligomeric state of mitochondrial isoform. There were made the models of multiple regression that permit to study the activity of creatine kinase system in cerebral ischemia using a calculating method. Therefore, the mathematical method of empirical dependences can be applied for estimation and prediction of the functional state of the brain by the activity of creatine kinase isoenzymes in cerebral ischemia.

Protection motivation theory and physical activity in the general population: a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Bui, Linh; Mullan, Barbara; McCaffery, Kirsten

2013-01-01

An appropriate theoretical framework may be useful for guiding the development of physical activity interventions. This review investigates the effectiveness of the protection motivation theory (PMT), a model based on the cognitive mediation processes of behavioral change, in the prediction and promotion of physical activity participation. A literature search was conducted using the databases MEDLINE, PsycINFO, PubMed, and Web of Science, and a manual search was conducted on relevant reference lists. Studies were included if they tested or applied the PMT, measured physical activity, and sampled from healthy populations. A total of 20 studies were reviewed, grouped into four design categories: prediction, stage discrimination, experimental manipulation, and intervention. The results indicated that the PMT's coping appraisal construct of self-efficacy generally appears to be the most effective in predicting and promoting physical activity participation. In conclusion, the PMT shows some promise, however, there are still substantial gaps in the evidence.

Using Feedback to Promote Physical Activity: The Role of the Feedback Sign

PubMed Central

Kramer, Jan-Niklas

2017-01-01

Background Providing feedback is a technique to promote health behavior that is emphasized by behavior change theories. However, these theories make contradicting predictions regarding the effect of the feedback sign—that is, whether the feedback signals success or failure. Thus, it is unclear whether positive or negative feedback leads to more favorable behavior change in a health behavior intervention. Objective The aim of this study was to examine the effect of the feedback sign in a health behavior change intervention. Methods Data from participants (N=1623) of a 6-month physical activity intervention was used. Participants received a feedback email at the beginning of each month. Feedback was either positive or negative depending on the participants’ physical activity in the previous month. In an exploratory analysis, change in monthly step count averages was used to evaluate the feedback effect. Results The feedback sign did not predict the change in monthly step count averages over the course of the intervention (b=−84.28, P=.28). Descriptive differences between positive and negative feedback can be explained by regression to the mean. Conclusions The feedback sign might not influence the effect of monthly feedback emails sent out to participants of a large-scale physical activity intervention. However, randomized studies are needed to further support this conclusion. Limitations as well as opportunities for future research are discussed. PMID:28576757

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Differential patterns of amygdala and ventral striatum activation predict gender-specific changes in sexual risk behavior.

PubMed

Victor, Elizabeth C; Sansosti, Alexandra A; Bowman, Hilary C; Hariri, Ahmad R

2015-06-10

Although the initiation of sexual behavior is common among adolescents and young adults, some individuals express this behavior in a manner that significantly increases their risk for negative outcomes including sexually transmitted infections. Based on accumulating evidence, we have hypothesized that increased sexual risk behavior reflects, in part, an imbalance between neural circuits mediating approach and avoidance in particular as manifest by relatively increased ventral striatum (VS) activity and relatively decreased amygdala activity. Here, we test our hypothesis using data from seventy 18- to 22-year-old university students participating in the Duke Neurogenetics Study. We found a significant three-way interaction between amygdala activation, VS activation, and gender predicting changes in the number of sexual partners over time. Although relatively increased VS activation predicted greater increases in sexual partners for both men and women, the effect in men was contingent on the presence of relatively decreased amygdala activation and the effect in women was contingent on the presence of relatively increased amygdala activation. These findings suggest unique gender differences in how complex interactions between neural circuit function contributing to approach and avoidance may be expressed as sexual risk behavior in young adults. As such, our findings have the potential to inform the development of novel, gender-specific strategies that may be more effective at curtailing sexual risk behavior. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/358896-05$15.00/0.

From awareness to action: Examining predictors of lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) activism for heterosexual people.

PubMed

Jones, K Nicole; Brewster, Melanie E

2017-01-01

In recent history, heterosexual allies have played an integral role in promoting change for lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender (LGBT) populations in the United States; however, questions have been raised as to what drives heterosexual allies to promote change via activism. To delineate factors important in engagement in activism, 207 self-identified heterosexual allies completed an online survey measuring components associated with LGBT activism using Bandura's (1986) model of triadic reciprocal determinism: personal factors (ally identity, social justice self-efficacy and outcome expectations, empathetic perspective taking, and gender) and environmental factors (social justice related supports and barriers, positive marginality, and education level) to predict behaviors (LGBT activism). A hierarchical multiple regression analysis revealed a model accounting for 62% of the variance in LGBT activism, with dimensions of ally identification, social justice self-efficacy, outcome expectations, and education level emerging as significant predictors of engagement in activism behaviors. Empathetic perspective taking and social justice related barriers predicted lack of engagement in LGBT activism, however. Supporting the notion that personal and environmental factors simultaneously impact engagement in LGBT activism. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Prestimulus EEG Power Predicts Conscious Awareness But Not Objective Visual Performance

PubMed Central

Veniero, Domenica

2017-01-01

Abstract Prestimulus oscillatory neural activity has been linked to perceptual outcomes during performance of psychophysical detection and discrimination tasks. Specifically, the power and phase of low frequency oscillations have been found to predict whether an upcoming weak visual target will be detected or not. However, the mechanisms by which baseline oscillatory activity influences perception remain unclear. Recent studies suggest that the frequently reported negative relationship between α power and stimulus detection may be explained by changes in detection criterion (i.e., increased target present responses regardless of whether the target was present/absent) driven by the state of neural excitability, rather than changes in visual sensitivity (i.e., more veridical percepts). Here, we recorded EEG while human participants performed a luminance discrimination task on perithreshold stimuli in combination with single-trial ratings of perceptual awareness. Our aim was to investigate whether the power and/or phase of prestimulus oscillatory activity predict discrimination accuracy and/or perceptual awareness on a trial-by-trial basis. Prestimulus power (3–28 Hz) was inversely related to perceptual awareness ratings (i.e., higher ratings in states of low prestimulus power/high excitability) but did not predict discrimination accuracy. In contrast, prestimulus oscillatory phase did not predict awareness ratings or accuracy in any frequency band. These results provide evidence that prestimulus α power influences the level of subjective awareness of threshold visual stimuli but does not influence visual sensitivity when a decision has to be made regarding stimulus features. Hence, we find a clear dissociation between the influence of ongoing neural activity on conscious awareness and objective performance. PMID:29255794

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE PAGES

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey; ...

2016-05-17

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Predicting the Responses of Soil Nitrite-Oxidizers to Multi-Factorial Global Change: A Trait-Based Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Le Roux, Xavier; Bouskill, Nicholas J.; Niboyet, Audrey

Soil microbial diversity is huge and a few grams of soil contain more bacterial taxa than there are bird species on Earth. This high diversity often makes predicting the responses of soil bacteria to environmental change intractable and restricts our capacity to predict the responses of soil functions to global change. Here, using a long-term field experiment in a California grassland, we studied the main and interactive effects of three global change factors (increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, precipitation and nitrogen addition, and all their factorial combinations, based on global change scenarios for central California) on the potential activity, abundancemore » and dominant taxa of soil nitrite-oxidizing bacteria (NOB). Using a trait-based model, we then tested whether categorizing NOB into a few functional groups unified by physiological traits enables understanding and predicting how soil NOB respond to global environmental change. Contrasted responses to global change treatments were observed between three main NOB functional types. In particular, putatively mixotrophic Nitrobacter, rare under most treatments, became dominant under the 'High CO 2 +Nitrogen+Precipitation' treatment. The mechanistic trait-based model, which simulated ecological niches of NOB types consistent with previous ecophysiological reports, helped predicting the observed effects of global change on NOB and elucidating the underlying biotic and abiotic controls. Our results are a starting point for representing the overwhelming diversity of soil bacteria by a few functional types that can be incorporated into models of terrestrial ecosystems and biogeochemical processes.« less

Dietary and exercise change following acute cardiac syndrome onset: A latent class growth modelling analysis.

PubMed

Bennett, Paul; Gruszczynska, Ewa; Marke, Victoria

2016-10-01

The present study aim determine sub-group trajectories of change on measures of diet and exercise following acute coronary syndrome. 150 participants were assessed in hospital, 1 month and 6 months subsequently on measures including physical activity, diet, illness beliefs, coping and mood. Change trajectories were measured using latent class growth modelling. Multinomial logistic regression was used to predict class membership. These analyses revealed changes in exercise were confined to a sub-group of participants already reporting relatively high exercise levels; those eating less healthily evidenced modest dietary improvements. Coping, gender, depression and perceived control predicted group membership to a modest degree. © The Author(s) 2015.

Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) Payload Safety Introduction Briefing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Loftin, Chuck; Lampert, Dianna; Herrburger, Eric; Smith, Clay; Hill, Stuart; VonMehlem, Judi

2008-01-01

Mission of the Geospace Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) is: Gain s cientific understanding (to the point of predictability) of how populations of relativistic electrons and ions in space form or change in response to changes in solar activity and the solar wind.

The Evolution of Marketing in Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Knight, Brent

1982-01-01

Looks at the progression of educational institutions through the five stages of Kotler's marketing process. Identifies anticipated changes and three activities critical for meeting the marketing challenge: research to predict consumer habits, attitudes, and needs; material and research development changes; and strict quality control and relevance…

Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics.

PubMed

Ranco, Gabriele; Bordino, Ilaria; Bormetti, Giacomo; Caldarelli, Guido; Lillo, Fabrizio; Treccani, Michele

2016-01-01

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users' behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and daily price changes of a set of 100 highly capitalized US stocks traded in the period 2012-2013. Sentiment analysis or browsing activity when taken alone have very small or no predictive power. Conversely, when considering a news signal where in a given time interval we compute the average sentiment of the clicked news, weighted by the number of clicks, we show that for nearly 50% of the companies such signal Granger-causes hourly price returns. Our result indicates a "wisdom-of-the-crowd" effect that allows to exploit users' activity to identify and weigh properly the relevant and surprising news, enhancing considerably the forecasting power of the news sentiment.

Coherence explored between emotion components: evidence from event-related potentials and facial electromyography.

PubMed

Gentsch, Kornelia; Grandjean, Didier; Scherer, Klaus R

2014-04-01

Componential theories assume that emotion episodes consist of emergent and dynamic response changes to relevant events in different components, such as appraisal, physiology, motivation, expression, and subjective feeling. In particular, Scherer's Component Process Model hypothesizes that subjective feeling emerges when the synchronization (or coherence) of appraisal-driven changes between emotion components has reached a critical threshold. We examined the prerequisite of this synchronization hypothesis for appraisal-driven response changes in facial expression. The appraisal process was manipulated by using feedback stimuli, presented in a gambling task. Participants' responses to the feedback were investigated in concurrently recorded brain activity related to appraisal (event-related potentials, ERP) and facial muscle activity (electromyography, EMG). Using principal component analysis, the prediction of appraisal-driven response changes in facial EMG was examined. Results support this prediction: early cognitive processes (related to the feedback-related negativity) seem to primarily affect the upper face, whereas processes that modulate P300 amplitudes tend to predominantly drive cheek region responses. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Variables Predicting Prospective Biology Teachers' Acceptance Perceptions Regarding Gene Technology

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yilmaz, Mirac; Demirhan, Haydar

2014-01-01

The different opinions on products and applications of gene technology (GT) draw attention to the training and education activities related to GT. The purpose of this study is to review some variables predicting the acceptance perception regarding GT, and to investigate their changes at levels. The prospective teachers' subjective knowledge and…

Informal Workplace Learning among Nurses: Organisational Learning Conditions and Personal Characteristics That Predict Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kyndt, Eva; Vermeire, Eva; Cabus, Shana

2016-01-01

Purpose: This paper aims to examine which organisational learning conditions and individual characteristics predict the learning outcomes nurses achieve through informal learning activities. There is specific relevance for the nursing profession because of the rapidly changing healthcare systems. Design/Methodology/Approach: In total, 203 nurses…

Predicting Deforestation Patterns in Loreto, Peru from 2000-2010 Using a Nested GLM Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vijay, V.; Jenkins, C.; Finer, M.; Pimm, S.

2013-12-01

Loreto is the largest province in Peru, covering about 370,000 km2. Because of its remote location in the Amazonian rainforest, it is also one of the most sparsely populated. Though a majority of the region remains covered by forest, deforestation is being driven by human encroachment through industrial activities and the spread of colonization and agriculture. The importance of accurate predictive modeling of deforestation has spawned an extensive body of literature on the topic. We present a nested GLM approach based on predictions of deforestation from 2000-2010 and using variables representing the expected drivers of deforestation. Models were constructed using 2000 to 2005 changes and tested against data for 2005 to 2010. The most complex model, which included transportation variables (roads and navigable rivers), spatial contagion processes, population centers and industrial activities, performed better in predicting the 2005 to 2010 changes (75.8% accurate) than did a simpler model using only transportation variables (69.2% accurate). Finally we contrast the GLM approach with a more complex spatially articulated model.

Quantitative metrics for assessing predicted climate change pressure on North American tree species

Treesearch

Kevin M. Potter; William W. Hargrove

2013-01-01

Changing climate may pose a threat to forest tree species, forcing three potential population-level responses: toleration/adaptation, movement to suitable environmental conditions, or local extirpation. Assessments that prioritize and classify tree species for management and conservation activities in the face of climate change will need to incorporate estimates of the...

Molecular Structure-Based Large-Scale Prediction of Chemical-Induced Gene Expression Changes.

PubMed

Liu, Ruifeng; AbdulHameed, Mohamed Diwan M; Wallqvist, Anders

2017-09-25

The quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) approach has been used to model a wide range of chemical-induced biological responses. However, it had not been utilized to model chemical-induced genomewide gene expression changes until very recently, owing to the complexity of training and evaluating a very large number of models. To address this issue, we examined the performance of a variable nearest neighbor (v-NN) method that uses information on near neighbors conforming to the principle that similar structures have similar activities. Using a data set of gene expression signatures of 13 150 compounds derived from cell-based measurements in the NIH Library of Integrated Network-based Cellular Signatures program, we were able to make predictions for 62% of the compounds in a 10-fold cross validation test, with a correlation coefficient of 0.61 between the predicted and experimentally derived signatures-a reproducibility rivaling that of high-throughput gene expression measurements. To evaluate the utility of the predicted gene expression signatures, we compared the predicted and experimentally derived signatures in their ability to identify drugs known to cause specific liver, kidney, and heart injuries. Overall, the predicted and experimentally derived signatures had similar receiver operating characteristics, whose areas under the curve ranged from 0.71 to 0.77 and 0.70 to 0.73, respectively, across the three organ injury models. However, detailed analyses of enrichment curves indicate that signatures predicted from multiple near neighbors outperformed those derived from experiments, suggesting that averaging information from near neighbors may help improve the signal from gene expression measurements. Our results demonstrate that the v-NN method can serve as a practical approach for modeling large-scale, genomewide, chemical-induced, gene expression changes.

Network inference reveals novel connections in pathways regulating growth and defense in the yeast salt response.

PubMed

MacGilvray, Matthew E; Shishkova, Evgenia; Chasman, Deborah; Place, Michael; Gitter, Anthony; Coon, Joshua J; Gasch, Audrey P

2018-05-01

Cells respond to stressful conditions by coordinating a complex, multi-faceted response that spans many levels of physiology. Much of the response is coordinated by changes in protein phosphorylation. Although the regulators of transcriptome changes during stress are well characterized in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the upstream regulatory network controlling protein phosphorylation is less well dissected. Here, we developed a computational approach to infer the signaling network that regulates phosphorylation changes in response to salt stress. We developed an approach to link predicted regulators to groups of likely co-regulated phospho-peptides responding to stress, thereby creating new edges in a background protein interaction network. We then use integer linear programming (ILP) to integrate wild type and mutant phospho-proteomic data and predict the network controlling stress-activated phospho-proteomic changes. The network we inferred predicted new regulatory connections between stress-activated and growth-regulating pathways and suggested mechanisms coordinating metabolism, cell-cycle progression, and growth during stress. We confirmed several network predictions with co-immunoprecipitations coupled with mass-spectrometry protein identification and mutant phospho-proteomic analysis. Results show that the cAMP-phosphodiesterase Pde2 physically interacts with many stress-regulated transcription factors targeted by PKA, and that reduced phosphorylation of those factors during stress requires the Rck2 kinase that we show physically interacts with Pde2. Together, our work shows how a high-quality computational network model can facilitate discovery of new pathway interactions during osmotic stress.

Cumulative activation during positive and negative events and state anxiety predicts subsequent inertia of amygdala reactivity

PubMed Central

Miendlarzewska, Ewa A.; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Vuilleumier, Patrik

2015-01-01

Inertia, together with intensity and valence, is an important component of emotion. We tested whether positive and negative events generate lingering changes in subsequent brain responses to unrelated threat stimuli and investigated the impact of individual anxiety. We acquired fMRI data while participants watched positive or negative movie-clips and subsequently performed an unrelated task with fearful and neutral faces. We quantified changes in amygdala reactivity to fearful faces as a function of the valence of preceding movies and cumulative neural activity evoked during them. We demonstrate that amygdala responses to emotional movies spill over to subsequent processing of threat information in a valence-specific manner: negative movies enhance later amygdala activation whereas positive movies attenuate it. Critically, the magnitude of such changes is predicted by a measure of cumulative amygdala responses to the preceding positive or negative movies. These effects appear independent of overt attention, are regionally limited to amygdala, with no changes in functional connectivity. Finally, individuals with higher state anxiety displayed stronger modulation of amygdala reactivity by positive movies. These results suggest that intensity and valence of emotional events as well as anxiety levels promote local changes in amygdala sensitivity to threat, highlighting the importance of past experience in shaping future affective reactivity. PMID:24603023

Several steps/day indicators predict changes in anthropometric outcomes: HUB City Steps.

PubMed

Thomson, Jessica L; Landry, Alicia S; Zoellner, Jamie M; Tudor-Locke, Catrine; Webster, Michael; Connell, Carol; Yadrick, Kathy

2012-11-15

Walking for exercise remains the most frequently reported leisure-time activity, likely because it is simple, inexpensive, and easily incorporated into most people's lifestyle. Pedometers are simple, convenient, and economical tools that can be used to quantify step-determined physical activity. Few studies have attempted to define the direct relationship between dynamic changes in pedometer-determined steps/day and changes in anthropometric and clinical outcomes. Hence, the objective of this secondary analysis was to evaluate the utility of several descriptive indicators of pedometer-determined steps/day for predicting changes in anthropometric and clinical outcomes using data from a community-based walking intervention, HUB City Steps, conducted in a southern, African American population. A secondary aim was to evaluate whether treating steps/day data for implausible values affected the ability of these data to predict intervention-induced changes in clinical and anthropometric outcomes. The data used in this secondary analysis were collected in 2010 from 269 participants in a six-month walking intervention targeting a reduction in blood pressure. Throughout the intervention, participants submitted weekly steps/day diaries based on pedometer self-monitoring. Changes (six-month minus baseline) in anthropometric (body mass index, waist circumference, percent body fat [%BF], fat mass) and clinical (blood pressure, lipids, glucose) outcomes were evaluated. Associations between steps/day indicators and changes in anthropometric and clinical outcomes were assessed using bivariate tests and multivariable linear regression analysis which controlled for demographic and baseline covariates. Significant negative bivariate associations were observed between steps/day indicators and the majority of anthropometric and clinical outcome changes (r = -0.3 to -0.2: P < 0.05). After controlling for covariates in the regression analysis, only the relationships between steps/day indicators and changes in anthropometric (not clinical) outcomes remained significant. For example, a 1,000 steps/day increase in intervention mean steps/day resulted in a 0.1% decrease in %BF. Results for the three pedometer datasets (full, truncated, and excluded) were similar and yielded few meaningful differences in interpretation of the findings. Several descriptive indicators of steps/day may be useful for predicting anthropometric outcome changes. Further, manipulating steps/day data to address implausible values has little overall effect on the ability to predict these anthropometric changes.

Self-Regulation and Recall: Growth Curve Modeling of Intervention Outcomes for Older Adults

PubMed Central

West, Robin L.; Hastings, Erin C.

2013-01-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills. PMID:21604891

Self-regulation and recall: growth curve modeling of intervention outcomes for older adults.

PubMed

West, Robin L; Hastings, Erin C

2011-12-01

Memory training has often been supported as a potential means to improve performance for older adults. Less often studied are the characteristics of trainees that benefit most from training. Using a self-regulatory perspective, the current project examined a latent growth curve model to predict training-related gains for middle-aged and older adult trainees from individual differences (e.g., education), information processing skills (strategy use) and self-regulatory factors such as self-efficacy, control, and active engagement in training. For name recall, a model including strategy usage and strategy change as predictors of memory gain, along with self-efficacy and self-efficacy change, showed comparable fit to a more parsimonious model including only self-efficacy variables as predictors. The best fit to the text recall data was a model focusing on self-efficacy change as the main predictor of memory change, and that model showed significantly better fit than a model also including strategy usage variables as predictors. In these models, overall performance was significantly predicted by age and memory self-efficacy, and subsequent training-related gains in performance were best predicted directly by change in self-efficacy (text recall), or indirectly through the impact of active engagement and self-efficacy on gains (name recall). These results underscore the benefits of targeting self-regulatory factors in intervention programs designed to improve memory skills.

Can tail damage outbreaks in the pig be predicted by behavioural change?

PubMed

Larsen, Mona Lilian Vestbjerg; Andersen, Heidi Mai-Lis; Pedersen, Lene Juul

2016-03-01

Tail biting, resulting in outbreaks of tail damage in pigs, is a multifactorial welfare and economic problem which is usually partly prevented through tail docking. According to European Union legislation, tail docking is not allowed on a routine basis; thus there is a need for alternative preventive methods. One strategy is the surveillance of the pigs' behaviour for known preceding indicators of tail damage, which makes it possible to predict a tail damage outbreak and prevent it in proper time. This review discusses the existing literature on behavioural changes observed prior to a tail damage outbreak. Behaviours found to change prior to an outbreak include increased activity level, increased performance of enrichment object manipulation, and a changed proportion of tail posture with more tails between the legs. Monitoring these types of behaviours is also discussed for the purpose of developing an automatic warning system for tail damage outbreaks, with activity level showing promising results for being monitored automatically. Encouraging results have been found so far for the development of an automatic warning system; however, there is a need for further investigation and development, starting with the description of the temporal development of the predictive behaviour in relation to tail damage outbreaks. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Do changes to the local street environment alter behaviour and quality of life of older adults? The 'DIY Streets' intervention.

PubMed

Ward Thompson, Catharine; Curl, Angela; Aspinall, Peter; Alves, Susana; Zuin, Affonso

2014-07-01

The burden of ill-health due to inactivity has recently been highlighted. Better studies on environments that support physical activity are called for, including longitudinal studies of environmental interventions. A programme of residential street improvements in the UK (Sustrans 'DIY Streets') allowed a rare opportunity for a prospective, longitudinal study of the effect of such changes on older adults' activities, health and quality of life. Pre-post, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in locations across England, Wales and Scotland; participants were aged 65+ living in intervention or comparison streets. A questionnaire covered health and quality of life, frequency of outdoor trips, time outdoors in different activities and a 38-item scale on neighbourhood open space. A cohort study explored changes in self-report activity and well-being postintervention. Activity levels were also measured by accelerometer and accompanying diary records. The cross-sectional surveys showed outdoor activity predicted by having a clean, nuisance-free local park, attractive, barrier-free routes to it and other natural environments nearby. Being able to park one's car outside the house also predicted time outdoors. The environmental changes had an impact on perceptions of street walkability and safety at night, but not on overall activity levels, health or quality of life. Participants' moderate-to-vigorous activity levels rarely met UK health recommendations. Our study contributes to methodology in a longitudinal, pre-post design and points to factors in the built environment that support active ageing. We include an example of knowledge exchange guidance on age-friendly built environments for policy-makers and planners. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Do changes to the local street environment alter behaviour and quality of life of older adults? The ‘DIY Streets’ intervention

PubMed Central

Ward Thompson, Catharine; Curl, Angela; Aspinall, Peter; Alves, Susana; Zuin, Affonso

2014-01-01

Background The burden of ill-health due to inactivity has recently been highlighted. Better studies on environments that support physical activity are called for, including longitudinal studies of environmental interventions. A programme of residential street improvements in the UK (Sustrans ‘DIY Streets’) allowed a rare opportunity for a prospective, longitudinal study of the effect of such changes on older adults’ activities, health and quality of life. Methods Pre–post, cross-sectional surveys were carried out in locations across England, Wales and Scotland; participants were aged 65+ living in intervention or comparison streets. A questionnaire covered health and quality of life, frequency of outdoor trips, time outdoors in different activities and a 38-item scale on neighbourhood open space. A cohort study explored changes in self-report activity and well-being postintervention. Activity levels were also measured by accelerometer and accompanying diary records. Results The cross-sectional surveys showed outdoor activity predicted by having a clean, nuisance-free local park, attractive, barrier-free routes to it and other natural environments nearby. Being able to park one's car outside the house also predicted time outdoors. The environmental changes had an impact on perceptions of street walkability and safety at night, but not on overall activity levels, health or quality of life. Participants’ moderate-to-vigorous activity levels rarely met UK health recommendations. Conclusions Our study contributes to methodology in a longitudinal, pre–post design and points to factors in the built environment that support active ageing. We include an example of knowledge exchange guidance on age-friendly built environments for policy-makers and planners. PMID:23242959

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current, past, and future climates.

PubMed

Mathewson, Paul D; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik A; Briscoe, Natalie J; Kearney, Michael; Yahn, Jeremiah M; Porter, Warren P

2017-03-01

How climate constrains species' distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8-19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3-5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: The American pika under current, past, and future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mathewson, Paul; Moyer-Horner, Lucas; Beever, Erik; Briscoe, Natalie; Kearney, Michael T.; Yahn, Jeremiah; Porter, Warren P.

2017-01-01

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat-balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika-specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate-imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.

Effects of psychosocial work factors on lifestyle changes: a cohort study.

PubMed

Allard, Karin Olofsson; Thomsen, Jane Frølund; Mikkelsen, Sigurd; Rugulies, Reiner; Mors, Ole; Kærgaard, Anette; Kolstad, Henrik A; Kaerlev, Linda; Andersen, Johan Hviid; Hansen, Ase Marie; Bonde, Jens Peter

2011-12-01

To evaluate the effect of the demand-control-support model, the effort-reward imbalance model, and emotional demands on smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and body mass index. This is a 2-year prospective cohort study of 3224 public sector employees. Measures were assessed with questionnaires. Multiple regression analyses were used to predict changes in lifestyle factors. Low reward predicted smoking, low-decision latitude predicted being inactive, and high demands predicted high-alcohol consumption but only for men at follow-up even after controlling for potential confounders. There were no other significant findings in the expected direction except for some of the confounders. We found only limited and inconsistent support for the hypothesis that a poor psychosocial work environment is associated with an adverse lifestyle.

Making predictions in a changing world-inference, uncertainty, and learning.

PubMed

O'Reilly, Jill X

2013-01-01

To function effectively, brains need to make predictions about their environment based on past experience, i.e., they need to learn about their environment. The algorithms by which learning occurs are of interest to neuroscientists, both in their own right (because they exist in the brain) and as a tool to model participants' incomplete knowledge of task parameters and hence, to better understand their behavior. This review focusses on a particular challenge for learning algorithms-how to match the rate at which they learn to the rate of change in the environment, so that they use as much observed data as possible whilst disregarding irrelevant, old observations. To do this algorithms must evaluate whether the environment is changing. We discuss the concepts of likelihood, priors and transition functions, and how these relate to change detection. We review expected and estimation uncertainty, and how these relate to change detection and learning rate. Finally, we consider the neural correlates of uncertainty and learning. We argue that the neural correlates of uncertainty bear a resemblance to neural systems that are active when agents actively explore their environments, suggesting that the mechanisms by which the rate of learning is set may be subject to top down control (in circumstances when agents actively seek new information) as well as bottom up control (by observations that imply change in the environment).

Telomerase activity is a useful marker to distinguish malignant pancreatic cystic tumors from benign neoplasms and pseudocysts.

PubMed

Yeh, T S; Cheng, A J; Chen, T C; Jan, Y Y; Hwang, T L; Jeng, L B; Chen, M F; Wang, T C

1999-12-01

Pancreatic serous cystadenoma, mucinous cystic neoplasms, ductal adenocarcinoma with cystic change, and pseudocysts are a spectrum of pancreatic cystic lesions. Their management strategy and prognosis are extremely diverse. Imaging study, cytology, and analysis of the tumor markers of cyst fluid are not always reliable in differentiation of these disease entities. Fifteen patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms (including six mucinous cystadenocarcinomas, two mucinous cystic neoplasms with borderline malignancy, two mucinous cystadenomas, and five serous cystadenomas), 4 patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with cystic change, and 10 patients with pseudocysts were studied. Echo-guided or computed tomography-guided biopsies of pancreatic cystic lesions and their normal counterparts were conducted on all patients prior to operation or other management. The specimens were assayed for telomerase activity by using TRAP (telomere repeat amplification protocol). The level of telomerase activity in each specimen was semiquantitated as strong, moderate, weak, and none. The final diagnoses were made from histopathological examination of surgically resected or biopsied specimens. The efficacy of telomerase activity as a tumor marker to predict malignancy of pancreatic cystic lesions was evaluated. Three of the four pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas with cystic change had strong or moderate telomerase activity; four of the six mucinous cystadenocarcinomas had moderate or weak telomerase activity; one of the two mucinous cystadenomas with borderline malignancy had weak telomerase activity; and none of their normal counterparts had detectable telomerase activity. In contrast, none of the two mucinous cystadenomas, five serous cystadenomas, and 10 pseudocysts had detectable telomerase activity. Based on these results, the sensitivity of telomerase activity for prediction of malignancy or premalignancy of pancreatic cystic lesions was 67%, the specificity was 100%, and the positive and negative predictive values were 1.0 and 0.81, respectively. The overall accuracy was 86%. The differential expressions of telomerase activity have been detected specifically in malignant and premalignant pancreatic cystic tumors, but not in benign cystic neoplasms or pseudocysts. The implications of these results are that telomerase activation takes part in the malignant transformation of pancreatic cystic neoplasms and that telomerase activity is a useful marker to distinguish malignant pancreatic cystic tumors from benign neoplasms and pseudocysts. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Modeling the flux of metabolites in the juvenile hormone biosynthesis pathway using generalized additive models and ordinary differential equations.

PubMed

Martínez-Rincón, Raúl O; Rivera-Pérez, Crisalejandra; Diambra, Luis; Noriega, Fernando G

2017-01-01

Juvenile hormone (JH) regulates development and reproductive maturation in insects. The corpora allata (CA) from female adult mosquitoes synthesize fluctuating levels of JH, which have been linked to the ovarian development and are influenced by nutritional signals. The rate of JH biosynthesis is controlled by the rate of flux of isoprenoids in the pathway, which is the outcome of a complex interplay of changes in precursor pools and enzyme levels. A comprehensive study of the changes in enzymatic activities and precursor pool sizes have been previously reported for the mosquito Aedes aegypti JH biosynthesis pathway. In the present studies, we used two different quantitative approaches to describe and predict how changes in the individual metabolic reactions in the pathway affect JH synthesis. First, we constructed generalized additive models (GAMs) that described the association between changes in specific metabolite concentrations with changes in enzymatic activities and substrate concentrations. Changes in substrate concentrations explained 50% or more of the model deviances in 7 of the 13 metabolic steps analyzed. Addition of information on enzymatic activities almost always improved the fitness of GAMs built solely based on substrate concentrations. GAMs were validated using experimental data that were not included when the model was built. In addition, a system of ordinary differential equations (ODE) was developed to describe the instantaneous changes in metabolites as a function of the levels of enzymatic catalytic activities. The results demonstrated the ability of the models to predict changes in the flux of metabolites in the JH pathway, and can be used in the future to design and validate experimental manipulations of JH synthesis.

Relationship among knowledge acquisition, motivation to change, and self-efficacy in CME participants.

PubMed

Williams, Betsy W; Kessler, Harold A; Williams, Michael V

2015-01-01

The relationship among an individual's sense of self-efficacy, motivation to change, barriers to change, and the implementation of improvement programs has been reported. This research reports the relationship among self-efficacy, motivation to change, and the acquisition of knowledge in a continuing medical education (CME) activity. The measure of individual sense of self-efficacy was a 4-item scale. The measure of motivation was a 6-item scale following on the work of Prochaska and colleagues. The knowledge acquisition was measured in a simple post measure. The participants were enrolled in a CME activity focused on HIV.  The CME activities had a significant effect on knowledge. Preliminary analysis demonstrates a relationship among the self-efficacy measure, the motivation to change measure, and global intent to change. Specifically, as reported earlier, the sense of efficacy in effecting change in the practice environment is predictive of a high level of motivation to change that, in turn, is predictive of formation of intent to change practice patterns. Interestingly, there were also relationships among the self-efficacy measure, the motivation to change measure, and knowledge acquisition. Finally, as expected, there was a significant relationship between knowledge and intent to change practice.  Further inspection of the motivation to change construct suggests that it mediates the self-efficacy constructs' effect on intent as well as its effect on knowledge acquisition. This new finding suggests that the proximal construct motivation completely masks an important underlying causal relationship that appears to contribute to practice change as well as learning following CME-self-efficacy. © 2015 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

Sun-earth environment study to understand earthquake prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukherjee, S.

2007-05-01

Earthquake prediction is possible by looking into the location of active sunspots before it harbours energy towards earth. Earth is a restless planet the restlessness turns deadly occasionally. Of all natural hazards, earthquakes are the most feared. For centuries scientists working in seismically active regions have noted premonitory signals. Changes in thermosphere, Ionosphere, atmosphere and hydrosphere are noted before the changes in geosphere. The historical records talk of changes of the water level in wells, of strange weather, of ground-hugging fog, of unusual behaviour of animals (due to change in magnetic field of the earth) that seem to feel the approach of a major earthquake. With the advent of modern science and technology the understanding of these pre-earthquake signals has become stronger enough to develop a methodology of earthquake prediction. A correlation of earth directed coronal mass ejection (CME) from the active sunspots has been possible to develop as a precursor of the earthquake. Occasional local magnetic field and planetary indices (Kp values) changes in the lower atmosphere that is accompanied by the formation of haze and a reduction of moisture in the air. Large patches, often tens to hundreds of thousands of square kilometres in size, seen in night-time infrared satellite images where the land surface temperature seems to fluctuate rapidly. Perturbations in the ionosphere at 90 - 120 km altitude have been observed before the occurrence of earthquakes. These changes affect the transmission of radio waves and a radio black out has been observed due to CME. Another heliophysical parameter Electron flux (Eflux) has been monitored before the occurrence of the earthquakes. More than hundreds of case studies show that before the occurrence of the earthquakes the atmospheric temperature increases and suddenly drops before the occurrence of the earthquakes. These changes are being monitored by using Sun Observatory Heliospheric observatory (SOHO) satellite data. Whatever the manifestations in the environment of the atmosphere or geosphere may be, there is a positive correlation of CMEs with change in magnetic field followed by aurora borealis or sudden spark of light from the sky before an earthquake. Any change in geomorphology in the pixel level, changes in groundwater level, geochemical anomalies of soils surrounding active faults and vegetation anomalies should be monitored in the mirror image position of sunspots on the earth facing side in reference to CME from the sun.

Development of Students' Critical-Reasoning Skills through Content-Focused Activities in a General Education Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fencl, Heidi S.

2010-01-01

Students in a general education science course made significant gains in scientific reasoning skills when they were taught using carefully designed hands-on activities and writing assignments. The activities required students to make use of scientific skills such as graphing, predicting outcomes under changing conditions, or designing experiments,…

Dietary fat intake predicts 1-year change in body fat in adolescent girls with type 1 diabetes.

PubMed

Särnblad, Stefan; Ekelund, Ulf; Aman, Jan

2006-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine whether objectively measured physical activity and dietary macronutrient intake differentially predict body fat in adolescent girls with type 1 diabetes and control girls. This study comprised 23 girls (12-19 years) with type 1 diabetes and 19 age-matched healthy control girls. At baseline, physical activity and energy intake were assessed for 7 consecutive days by accelerometry and a structured food diary, respectively. Body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry at baseline and after 1 year. Fat intake was positively related to a 1-year change in percentage body fat (P = 0.006), after adjustment for total energy intake. No significant interaction was observed (case-control group x main exposure), indicating that the association between fat intake and gain in body fat was similar in both groups. Physical activity did not predict gain in body fat; however, total physical activity was positively associated with a gain in lean body mass (P < 0.01). Girls treated with six daily dosages of insulin increased their percentage of body fat significantly more than those treated with four daily injections (P < 0.05). In this prospective case-control study, we found that fat intake predicted gain in percentage of body fat in both adolescent girls with type 1 diabetes and healthy control girls. The number of daily insulin injections seems to influence the accumulation of body fat in girls with type 1 diabetes.

Which psychological, social and physical environmental characteristics predict changes in physical activity and sedentary behaviors during early retirement? A longitudinal study

PubMed Central

Van Dyck, Delfien; Cardon, Greet

2017-01-01

Background In the context of healthy ageing, it is necessary to identify opportunities to implement health interventions in order to develop an active lifestyle with sufficient physical activity and limited sedentary time in middle-aged and older adults. The transition to retirement is such an opportunity, as individuals tend to establish new routines at the start of retirement. Before health interventions can be developed, the psychological, social and physical environmental determinants of physical activity and sedentary behaviors during early retirement should be identified, ideally with longitudinal studies. The aim of this paper was first to examine whether psychological, social and physical environmental factors at the start of retirement predict longitudinal changes in physical activity and sedentary behaviors during the first years of retirement. Second, moderating effects of gender and educational levels were examined. Methods This longitudinal study was conducted in Flanders, Belgium. In total, 180 recently retired (>1 month, <2 years at baseline) adults completed a postal questionnaire twice (in 2012–2013 and two years later in 2014–2015). The validated questionnaire assessed socio-demographic information, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and psychological, social and physical environmental characteristics. Multiple moderated hierarchic regression analyses were conducted in SPSS 22.0. Results Higher perceived residential density (p < 0.001) and lower aesthetics (p = 0.08) predicted an increase in active transportation (adjusted R2 = 0.18). Higher baseline self-efficacy was associated with an increase in leisure-time physical activity (p = 0.001, adjusted R2 = 0.13). A more positive perception of old age (p = 0.04) and perceiving less street connectivity (p = 0.001) were associated with an increase in screen time (adjusted R2 = 0.06). Finally, higher baseline levels of modeling from friends (p = 0.06) and lower perceived land use mix access (p = 0.09) predicted an increase in car use (adjusted R2 = 0.06). A few moderating effects, mainly of educational level, were found. Discussion Walkability characteristics (perceived residential density) and self-efficacy at the start of retirement are the most important predictors of longitudinal changes in active transportation and leisure-time physical activity. Few moderating effects were found, so health interventions at the start of retirement focusing on self-efficacy and specific walkability characteristics could be effective to increase physical activity in recently retired adults. No firm conclusions can be drawn on the importance of the examined predictors to explain change in car use and screen time, possibly other factors like the home environment, or automatic processes and habit strength are more important to explain sedentary behaviors. PMID:28507817

Combining a Spatial Model and Demand Forecasts to Map Future Surface Coal Mining in Appalachia

PubMed Central

Strager, Michael P.; Strager, Jacquelyn M.; Evans, Jeffrey S.; Dunscomb, Judy K.; Kreps, Brad J.; Maxwell, Aaron E.

2015-01-01

Predicting the locations of future surface coal mining in Appalachia is challenging for a number of reasons. Economic and regulatory factors impact the coal mining industry and forecasts of future coal production do not specifically predict changes in location of future coal production. With the potential environmental impacts from surface coal mining, prediction of the location of future activity would be valuable to decision makers. The goal of this study was to provide a method for predicting future surface coal mining extents under changing economic and regulatory forecasts through the year 2035. This was accomplished by integrating a spatial model with production demand forecasts to predict (1 km2) gridded cell size land cover change. Combining these two inputs was possible with a ratio which linked coal extraction quantities to a unit area extent. The result was a spatial distribution of probabilities allocated over forecasted demand for the Appalachian region including northern, central, southern, and eastern Illinois coal regions. The results can be used to better plan for land use alterations and potential cumulative impacts. PMID:26090883

A trait-based framework for predicting when and where microbial adaptation to climate change will affect ecosystem functioning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Hall, Edward K.

2012-01-01

As the earth system changes in response to human activities, a critical objective is to predict how biogeochemical process rates (e.g. nitrification, decomposition) and ecosystem function (e.g. net ecosystem productivity) will change under future conditions. A particular challenge is that the microbial communities that drive many of these processes are capable of adapting to environmental change in ways that alter ecosystem functioning. Despite evidence that microbes can adapt to temperature, precipitation regimes, and redox fluctuations, microbial communities are typically not optimally adapted to their local environment. For example, temperature optima for growth and enzyme activity are often greater than in situ temperatures in their environment. Here we discuss fundamental constraints on microbial adaptation and suggest specific environments where microbial adaptation to climate change (or lack thereof) is most likely to alter ecosystem functioning. Our framework is based on two principal assumptions. First, there are fundamental ecological trade-offs in microbial community traits that occur across environmental gradients (in time and space). These trade-offs result in shifting of microbial function (e.g. ability to take up resources at low temperature) in response to adaptation of another trait (e.g. limiting maintenance respiration at high temperature). Second, the mechanism and level of microbial community adaptation to changing environmental parameters is a function of the potential rate of change in community composition relative to the rate of environmental change. Together, this framework provides a basis for developing testable predictions about how the rate and degree of microbial adaptation to climate change will alter biogeochemical processes in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems across the planet.

Several steps/day indicators predict changes in anthropometric outcomes: HUB city steps

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Walking for exercise remains the most frequently reported leisure-time activity, likely because it is simple, inexpensive, and easily incorporated into most people’s lifestyle. Pedometers are simple, convenient, and economical tools that can be used to quantify step-determined physical activity. F...

Processes of behavior change and weight loss in a theory-based weight loss intervention program: a test of the process model for lifestyle behavior change.

PubMed

Gillison, Fiona; Stathi, Afroditi; Reddy, Prasuna; Perry, Rachel; Taylor, Gordon; Bennett, Paul; Dunbar, James; Greaves, Colin

2015-01-16

Process evaluation is important for improving theories of behavior change and behavioral intervention methods. The present study reports on the process outcomes of a pilot test of the theoretical model (the Process Model for Lifestyle Behavior Change; PMLBC) underpinning an evidence-informed, theory-driven, group-based intervention designed to promote healthy eating and physical activity for people with high cardiovascular risk. 108 people at high risk of diabetes or heart disease were randomized to a group-based weight management intervention targeting diet and physical activity plus usual care, or to usual care. The intervention comprised nine group based sessions designed to promote motivation, social support, self-regulation and understanding of the behavior change process. Weight loss, diet, physical activity and theoretically defined mediators of change were measured pre-intervention, and after four and 12 months. The intervention resulted in significant improvements in fiber intake (M between-group difference = 5.7 g/day, p < .001) but not fat consumption (-2.3 g/day, p = 0.13), that were predictive of weight loss at both four months (M between-group difference = -1.98 kg, p < .01; R(2) = 0.2, p < 0.005), and 12 months (M difference = -1.85 kg, p = 0.1; R(2) = 0.1, p < 0.01). The intervention was successful in improving the majority of specified mediators of behavior change, and the predicted mechanisms of change specified in the PMBLC were largely supported. Improvements in self-efficacy and understanding of the behavior change process were associated with engagement in coping planning and self-monitoring activities, and successful dietary change at four and 12 months. While participants reported improvements in motivational and social support variables, there was no effect of these, or of the intervention overall, on physical activity. The data broadly support the theoretical model for supporting some dietary changes, but not for physical activity. Systematic intervention design allowed us to identify where improvements to the intervention may be implemented to promote change in all proposed mediators. More work is needed to explore effective mechanisms within interventions to promote physical activity behavior.

Predicting the kinetics of Listeria monocytogenes and Yersinia enterocolitica under dynamic growth/death-inducing conditions, in Italian style fresh sausage.

PubMed

Iannetti, Luigi; Salini, Romolo; Sperandii, Anna Franca; Santarelli, Gino Angelo; Neri, Diana; Di Marzio, Violeta; Romantini, Romina; Migliorati, Giacomo; Baranyi, József

2017-01-02

Traditional Italian pork products can be consumed after variable drying periods, where the temporal decrease of water activity spans from optimal to inactivating values. This makes it necessary to A) consider the bias factor when applying culture-medium-based predictive models to sausage; B) apply the dynamic version (described by differential equations) of those models; C) combine growth and death models in a continuous way, including the highly uncertain growth/no growth range separating the two regions. This paper tests the applicability of published predictive models on the responses of Listeria monocytogenes and Yersinia enterocolitica to dynamic conditions in traditional Italian pork sausage, where the environment changes from growth-supporting to inhibitory conditions, so the growth and death models need to be combined. The effect of indigenous lactic acid bacteria was also taken into account in the predictions. Challenge tests were carried out using such sausages, inoculated separately with L. monocytogenes and Y. enterocolitica, stored for 480h at 8, 12, 18 and 20°C. The pH was fairly constant, while the water activity changed dynamically. The effects of the environment on the specific growth and death rate of the studied organisms were predicted using previously published predictive models and parameters. Microbial kinetics in many products with a long shelf-life and dynamic internal environment, could result in both growth and inactivation, making it difficult to estimate the bacterial concentration at the time of consumption by means of commonly available predictive software tools. Our prediction of the effect of the storage environment, where the water activity gradually decreases during a drying period, is designed to overcome these difficulties. The methodology can be used generally to predict and visualise bacterial kinetics under temporal variation of environments, which is vital when assessing the safety of many similar products. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultrasound disease activity of bilateral wrist and finger joints at three months reflects the clinical response at six months of patients with rheumatoid arthritis treated with biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs.

PubMed

Kawashiri, Shin-Ya; Nishino, Ayako; Shimizu, Toshimasa; Umeda, Masataka; Fukui, Shoichi; Nakashima, Yoshikazu; Suzuki, Takahisa; Koga, Tomohiro; Iwamoto, Naoki; Ichinose, Kunihiro; Tamai, Mami; Nakamura, Hideki; Origuchi, Tomoki; Aoyagi, Kiyoshi; Kawakami, Atsushi

2017-03-01

We evaluated whether the early responsiveness of ultrasound synovitis can predict the clinical response in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients treated with biologic disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs (bDMARDs). Articular synovitis was assessed by ultrasound at 22 bilateral wrist and finger joints in 39 RA patients treated with bDMARDs. Each joint was assigned a gray-scale (GS) and power Doppler (PD) score from 0 to 3, and the sum of the GS or PD scores was considered to represent the ultrasound disease activity. We investigated the correlation of the change in ultrasound disease activity at three months with the EULAR response criteria at six months. GS and PD scores were significantly decreased at three months (p < 0.0001). The % changes of the GS and PD scores at three months were significantly higher at six months in moderate and good responders compared with non-responders (p < 0.05). These tendencies were numerically more prominent if clinical response was set as good responder or Disease Activity Score 28 remission. Poor improvement of ultrasound synovitis scores had good predictive value for non-responders at six months. The responsiveness of ultrasound disease activity is considered to predict further clinical response in RA patients treated with bDMARDs.

Models of vegetation change for landscape planning: a comparison of FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT

Treesearch

T. M. Barrett

2001-01-01

Landscape assessment and planning often depend on the ability to predict change of vegetation. This report compares four modeling systems (FETM, LANDSUM, SIMPPLLE, and VDDT) that can be used to understand changes resulting from succession, natural disturbance, and management activities. The four models may be useful for regional or local assessments in National Forest...

Variation among genotypes in responses to increasing temperature in a marine parasite: evolutionary potential in the face of global warming?

PubMed

Berkhout, Boris W; Lloyd, Melanie M; Poulin, Robert; Studer, Anja

2014-11-01

Climates are changing worldwide, and populations are under selection to adapt to these changes. Changing temperature, in particular, can directly impact ectotherms and their parasites, with potential consequences for whole ecosystems. The potential of parasite populations to adapt to climate change largely depends on the amount of genetic variation they possess in their responses to environmental fluctuations. This study is, to our knowledge, the first to look at differences among parasite genotypes in response to temperature, with the goal of quantifying the extent of variation among conspecifics in their responses to increasing temperature. Snails infected with single genotypes of the trematode Maritrema novaezealandensis were sequentially acclimatised to two different temperatures, 'current' (15°C) and 'elevated' (20°C), over long periods. These temperatures are based on current average field conditions in the natural habitat and those predicted to occur during the next few decades. The output and activity of cercariae (free-swimming infective stages emerging from snails) were assessed for each genotype at each temperature. The results indicate that, on average, both cercarial output and activity are higher at the elevated acclimation temperature. More importantly, the output and activity of cercariae are strongly influenced by a genotype-by-temperature interaction, such that different genotypes show different responses to increasing temperature. Both the magnitude and direction (increase or decrease) of responses to temperature varied widely among genotypes. Therefore, there is much potential for natural selection to act on this variation, and predicting how the trematode M. novaezealandensis will respond to the climate changes predicted for the next century will prove challenging. Copyright © 2014 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pitch Syntax Violations Are Linked to Greater Skin Conductance Changes, Relative to Timbral Violations - The Predictive Role of the Reward System in Perspective of Cortico-subcortical Loops.

PubMed

Gorzelańczyk, Edward J; Podlipniak, Piotr; Walecki, Piotr; Karpiński, Maciej; Tarnowska, Emilia

2017-01-01

According to contemporary opinion emotional reactions to syntactic violations are due to surprise as a result of the general mechanism of prediction. The classic view is that, the processing of musical syntax can be explained by activity of the cerebral cortex. However, some recent studies have indicated that subcortical brain structures, including those related to the processing of emotions, are also important during the processing of syntax. In order to check whether emotional reactions play a role in the processing of pitch syntax or are only the result of the general mechanism of prediction, the comparison of skin conductance levels reacting to three types of melodies were recorded. In this study, 28 subjects listened to three types of short melodies prepared in Musical Instrument Digital Interface Standard files (MIDI) - tonally correct, tonally violated (with one out-of-key - i.e., of high information content), and tonally correct but with one note played in a different timbre. The BioSemi ActiveTwo with two passive Nihon Kohden electrodes was used. Skin conductance levels were positively correlated with the presented stimuli (timbral changes and tonal violations). Although changes in skin conductance levels were also observed in response to the change in timbre, the reactions to tonal violations were significantly stronger. Therefore, despite the fact that timbral change is at least as equally unexpected as an out-of-key note, the processing of pitch syntax mainly generates increased activation of the sympathetic part of the autonomic nervous system. These results suggest that the cortico-subcortical loops (especially the anterior cingulate - limbic loop) may play an important role in the processing of musical syntax.

Population activity statistics dissect subthreshold and spiking variability in V1.

PubMed

Bányai, Mihály; Koman, Zsombor; Orbán, Gergő

2017-07-01

Response variability, as measured by fluctuating responses upon repeated performance of trials, is a major component of neural responses, and its characterization is key to interpret high dimensional population recordings. Response variability and covariability display predictable changes upon changes in stimulus and cognitive or behavioral state, providing an opportunity to test the predictive power of models of neural variability. Still, there is little agreement on which model to use as a building block for population-level analyses, and models of variability are often treated as a subject of choice. We investigate two competing models, the doubly stochastic Poisson (DSP) model assuming stochasticity at spike generation, and the rectified Gaussian (RG) model tracing variability back to membrane potential variance, to analyze stimulus-dependent modulation of both single-neuron and pairwise response statistics. Using a pair of model neurons, we demonstrate that the two models predict similar single-cell statistics. However, DSP and RG models have contradicting predictions on the joint statistics of spiking responses. To test the models against data, we build a population model to simulate stimulus change-related modulations in pairwise response statistics. We use single-unit data from the primary visual cortex (V1) of monkeys to show that while model predictions for variance are qualitatively similar to experimental data, only the RG model's predictions are compatible with joint statistics. These results suggest that models using Poisson-like variability might fail to capture important properties of response statistics. We argue that membrane potential-level modeling of stochasticity provides an efficient strategy to model correlations. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Neural variability and covariability are puzzling aspects of cortical computations. For efficient decoding and prediction, models of information encoding in neural populations hinge on an appropriate model of variability. Our work shows that stimulus-dependent changes in pairwise but not in single-cell statistics can differentiate between two widely used models of neuronal variability. Contrasting model predictions with neuronal data provides hints on the noise sources in spiking and provides constraints on statistical models of population activity. Copyright © 2017 the American Physiological Society.

Self-evaluative emotions and expectations about self-evaluative emotions in health-behaviour change.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Arie; Buunk, Abraham P

2008-03-01

Engaging in a behaviour that has negative physical consequences is considered to be a threat to the self because it makes the self appear inadequate and non-adaptive. This self-threat is experienced as self-evaluative emotions. The self-threat can be removed by refraining from the unhealthy behaviour. The experience of self-threat influences behaviour because it contributes to expectations about the occurrence of self-evaluative emotions in the case of behaviour change. The results of Study 1, conducted among 503 smokers, showed that self-evaluative emotions were the central predictor of quitting activity during a 7-month period, among measures related to the negative consequences of smoking. The results of Study 2, conducted among 409 smokers, showed that expectations about the self-evaluative emotions that follow quitting smoking predicted quitting activity during a 9-month period and that these expectations partly mediated the relation between self-evaluative emotions and quitting. The results of Study 3, conducted among 255 smokers, showed that information on the negative outcomes of smoking led to quitting activity only when there was room to change self-evaluative outcome expectations. In addition, increases in these expectations predicted quitting activity during a 6-month period. The results suggest that negative self-evaluative emotions are a central motive to change unhealthy behaviour and that self-evaluative outcome expectations govern the behaviour change. The results can be understood within Steele's (1999) Self-affirmation theory.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Detrick, R. S.; Hafner, K.; Davis, J. P.; Wilson, D.; Woodward, R.

2016-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

The Future of the Mississippi Delta: Shifting Baselines, Diminishing Resilience, and Growing Non-Sustainability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, J.

2017-12-01

Ecosystems and human communities of the Mississippi delta developed with predictable basin inputs, stable sea level, and as an open system with a high degree of interaction among drainage basin inputs, deltaic plain, and the coastal sea. Human activity changed altered the coast and lowered predictability. Management has become very energy intensive and dependent on cheap resources with more hard engineering and less ecological engineering. Pervasive alteration of the basin and delta and global change have altered the baseline and change is accelerating. Climate change projections include not only sea-level rise, but also more stronger hurricanes, increased large river floods, and more intense rainfall events and droughts. A sustainable Mississippi is outside of the boundaries of the current CMP.

EEG and Neuronal Activity Topography analysis can predict effectiveness of shunt operation in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients☆

PubMed Central

Aoki, Yasunori; Kazui, Hiroaki; Tanaka, Toshihisa; Ishii, Ryouhei; Wada, Tamiki; Ikeda, Shunichiro; Hata, Masahiro; Canuet, Leonides; Musha, Toshimitsu; Matsuzaki, Haruyasu; Imajo, Kaoru; Yoshiyama, Kenji; Yoshida, Tetsuhiko; Shimizu, Yoshiro; Nomura, Keiko; Iwase, Masao; Takeda, Masatoshi

2013-01-01

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is a neuropsychiatric syndrome characterized by gait disturbance, cognitive impairment and urinary incontinence that affect elderly individuals. These symptoms can potentially be reversed by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage or shunt operation. Prior to shunt operation, drainage of a small amount of CSF or “CSF tapping” is usually performed to ascertain the effect of the operation. Unfortunately, conventional neuroimaging methods such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), as well as electroencephalogram (EEG) power analysis seem to have failed to detect the effect of CSF tapping on brain function. In this work, we propose the use of Neuronal Activity Topography (NAT) analysis, which calculates normalized power variance (NPV) of EEG waves, to detect cortical functional changes induced by CSF tapping in iNPH. Based on clinical improvement by CSF tapping and shunt operation, we classified 24 iNPH patients into responders (N = 11) and nonresponders (N = 13), and performed both EEG power analysis and NAT analysis. We also assessed correlations between changes in NPV and changes in functional scores on gait and cognition scales before and after CSF tapping. NAT analysis showed that after CSF tapping there was a significant decrease in alpha NPV at the medial frontal cortex (FC) (Fz) in responders, while nonresponders exhibited an increase in alpha NPV at the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) (F8). Furthermore, we found correlations between cortical functional changes and clinical symptoms. In particular, delta and alpha NPV changes in the left-dorsal FC (F3) correlated with changes in gait status, while alpha and beta NPV changes in the right anterior prefrontal cortex (PFC) (Fp2) and left DLPFC (F7) as well as alpha NPV changes in the medial FC (Fz) correlated with changes in gait velocity. In addition, alpha NPV changes in the right DLPFC (F8) correlated with changes in WMS-R Mental Control scores in iNPH patients. An additional analysis combining the changes in values of alpha NPV over the left-dorsal FC (∆alpha-F3-NPV) and the medial FC (∆alpha-Fz-NPV) induced by CSF tapping (cut-off value of ∆alpha-F3-NPV + ∆alpha-Fz-NPV = 0), could correctly identified “shunt responders” and “shunt nonresponders” with a positive predictive value of 100% (10/10) and a negative predictive value of 66% (2/3). In contrast, EEG power spectral analysis showed no function related changes in cortical activity at the frontal cortex before and after CSF tapping. These results indicate that the clinical changes in gait and response suppression induced by CSF tapping in iNPH patients manifest as NPV changes, particularly in the alpha band, rather than as EEG power changes. Our findings suggest that NAT analysis can detect CSF tapping-induced functional changes in cortical activity, in a way that no other neuroimaging methods have been able to do so far, and can predict clinical response to shunt operation in patients with iNPH. PMID:24273735

EEG and Neuronal Activity Topography analysis can predict effectiveness of shunt operation in idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus patients.

PubMed

Aoki, Yasunori; Kazui, Hiroaki; Tanaka, Toshihisa; Ishii, Ryouhei; Wada, Tamiki; Ikeda, Shunichiro; Hata, Masahiro; Canuet, Leonides; Musha, Toshimitsu; Matsuzaki, Haruyasu; Imajo, Kaoru; Yoshiyama, Kenji; Yoshida, Tetsuhiko; Shimizu, Yoshiro; Nomura, Keiko; Iwase, Masao; Takeda, Masatoshi

2013-01-01

Idiopathic normal pressure hydrocephalus (iNPH) is a neuropsychiatric syndrome characterized by gait disturbance, cognitive impairment and urinary incontinence that affect elderly individuals. These symptoms can potentially be reversed by cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) drainage or shunt operation. Prior to shunt operation, drainage of a small amount of CSF or "CSF tapping" is usually performed to ascertain the effect of the operation. Unfortunately, conventional neuroimaging methods such as single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), as well as electroencephalogram (EEG) power analysis seem to have failed to detect the effect of CSF tapping on brain function. In this work, we propose the use of Neuronal Activity Topography (NAT) analysis, which calculates normalized power variance (NPV) of EEG waves, to detect cortical functional changes induced by CSF tapping in iNPH. Based on clinical improvement by CSF tapping and shunt operation, we classified 24 iNPH patients into responders (N = 11) and nonresponders (N = 13), and performed both EEG power analysis and NAT analysis. We also assessed correlations between changes in NPV and changes in functional scores on gait and cognition scales before and after CSF tapping. NAT analysis showed that after CSF tapping there was a significant decrease in alpha NPV at the medial frontal cortex (FC) (Fz) in responders, while nonresponders exhibited an increase in alpha NPV at the right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) (F8). Furthermore, we found correlations between cortical functional changes and clinical symptoms. In particular, delta and alpha NPV changes in the left-dorsal FC (F3) correlated with changes in gait status, while alpha and beta NPV changes in the right anterior prefrontal cortex (PFC) (Fp2) and left DLPFC (F7) as well as alpha NPV changes in the medial FC (Fz) correlated with changes in gait velocity. In addition, alpha NPV changes in the right DLPFC (F8) correlated with changes in WMS-R Mental Control scores in iNPH patients. An additional analysis combining the changes in values of alpha NPV over the left-dorsal FC (∆alpha-F3-NPV) and the medial FC (∆alpha-Fz-NPV) induced by CSF tapping (cut-off value of ∆alpha-F3-NPV + ∆alpha-Fz-NPV = 0), could correctly identified "shunt responders" and "shunt nonresponders" with a positive predictive value of 100% (10/10) and a negative predictive value of 66% (2/3). In contrast, EEG power spectral analysis showed no function related changes in cortical activity at the frontal cortex before and after CSF tapping. These results indicate that the clinical changes in gait and response suppression induced by CSF tapping in iNPH patients manifest as NPV changes, particularly in the alpha band, rather than as EEG power changes. Our findings suggest that NAT analysis can detect CSF tapping-induced functional changes in cortical activity, in a way that no other neuroimaging methods have been able to do so far, and can predict clinical response to shunt operation in patients with iNPH.

Do Increases in Patient Activation Result in Improved Self-Management Behaviors?

PubMed Central

Hibbard, Judith H; Mahoney, Eldon R; Stock, Ronald; Tusler, Martin

2007-01-01

Objective The purpose of this study is to determine whether patient activation is a changing or changeable characteristic and to assess whether changes in activation also are accompanied by changes in health behavior. Study Methods To obtain variability in activation and self-management behavior, a controlled trial with chronic disease patients randomized into either intervention or control conditions was employed. In addition, changes in activation that occurred in the total sample were also examined for the study period. Using Mplus growth models, activation latent growth classes were identified and used in the analysis to predict changes in health behaviors and health outcomes. Data Sources Survey data from the 479 participants were collected at baseline, 6 weeks, and 6 months. Principal Findings Positive change in activation is related to positive change in a variety of self-management behaviors. This is true even when the behavior in question is not being performed at baseline. When the behavior is already being performed at baseline, an increase in activation is related to maintaining a relatively high level of the behavior over time. The impact of the intervention, however, was less clear, as the increase in activation in the intervention group was matched by nearly equal increases in the control group. Conclusions Results suggest that if activation is increased, a variety of improved behaviors will follow. The question still remains, however, as to what interventions will improve activation. PMID:17610432

Inferring deep-brain activity from cortical activity using functional near-infrared spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Liu, Ning; Cui, Xu; Bryant, Daniel M.; Glover, Gary H.; Reiss, Allan L.

2015-01-01

Functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS) is an increasingly popular technology for studying brain function because it is non-invasive, non-irradiating and relatively inexpensive. Further, fNIRS potentially allows measurement of hemodynamic activity with high temporal resolution (milliseconds) and in naturalistic settings. However, in comparison with other imaging modalities, namely fMRI, fNIRS has a significant drawback: limited sensitivity to hemodynamic changes in deep-brain regions. To overcome this limitation, we developed a computational method to infer deep-brain activity using fNIRS measurements of cortical activity. Using simultaneous fNIRS and fMRI, we measured brain activity in 17 participants as they completed three cognitive tasks. A support vector regression (SVR) learning algorithm was used to predict activity in twelve deep-brain regions using information from surface fNIRS measurements. We compared these predictions against actual fMRI-measured activity using Pearson’s correlation to quantify prediction performance. To provide a benchmark for comparison, we also used fMRI measurements of cortical activity to infer deep-brain activity. When using fMRI-measured activity from the entire cortex, we were able to predict deep-brain activity in the fusiform cortex with an average correlation coefficient of 0.80 and in all deep-brain regions with an average correlation coefficient of 0.67. The top 15% of predictions using fNIRS signal achieved an accuracy of 0.7. To our knowledge, this study is the first to investigate the feasibility of using cortical activity to infer deep-brain activity. This new method has the potential to extend fNIRS applications in cognitive and clinical neuroscience research. PMID:25798327

Health Impacts of Increased Physical Activity from Changes in Transportation Infrastructure: Quantitative Estimates for Three Communities

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Recently, two quantitative tools have emerged for predicting the health impacts of projects that change population physical activity: the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) and Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO-HIA). HEAT has been used to support health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, but DYNAMO-HIA has not been previously employed for this purpose nor have the two tools been compared. To demonstrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA for supporting health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, we employed the model in three communities (urban, suburban, and rural) in North Carolina. We also compared DYNAMO-HIA and HEAT predictions in the urban community. Using DYNAMO-HIA, we estimated benefit-cost ratios of 20.2 (95% C.I.: 8.7–30.6), 0.6 (0.3–0.9), and 4.7 (2.1–7.1) for the urban, suburban, and rural projects, respectively. For a 40-year time period, the HEAT predictions of deaths avoided by the urban infrastructure project were three times as high as DYNAMO-HIA's predictions due to HEAT's inability to account for changing population health characteristics over time. Quantitative health impact assessment coupled with economic valuation is a powerful tool for integrating health considerations into transportation decision-making. However, to avoid overestimating benefits, such quantitative HIAs should use dynamic, rather than static, approaches. PMID:26504832

Health Impacts of Increased Physical Activity from Changes in Transportation Infrastructure: Quantitative Estimates for Three Communities.

PubMed

Mansfield, Theodore J; MacDonald Gibson, Jacqueline

2015-01-01

Recently, two quantitative tools have emerged for predicting the health impacts of projects that change population physical activity: the Health Economic Assessment Tool (HEAT) and Dynamic Modeling for Health Impact Assessment (DYNAMO-HIA). HEAT has been used to support health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, but DYNAMO-HIA has not been previously employed for this purpose nor have the two tools been compared. To demonstrate the use of DYNAMO-HIA for supporting health impact assessments of transportation infrastructure projects, we employed the model in three communities (urban, suburban, and rural) in North Carolina. We also compared DYNAMO-HIA and HEAT predictions in the urban community. Using DYNAMO-HIA, we estimated benefit-cost ratios of 20.2 (95% C.I.: 8.7-30.6), 0.6 (0.3-0.9), and 4.7 (2.1-7.1) for the urban, suburban, and rural projects, respectively. For a 40-year time period, the HEAT predictions of deaths avoided by the urban infrastructure project were three times as high as DYNAMO-HIA's predictions due to HEAT's inability to account for changing population health characteristics over time. Quantitative health impact assessment coupled with economic valuation is a powerful tool for integrating health considerations into transportation decision-making. However, to avoid overestimating benefits, such quantitative HIAs should use dynamic, rather than static, approaches.

Livestock Helminths in a Changing Climate: Approaches and Restrictions to Meaningful Predictions

PubMed Central

Fox, Naomi J.; Marion, Glenn; Davidson, Ross S.; White, Piran C. L.; Hutchings, Michael R.

2012-01-01

Simple Summary Parasitic helminths represent one of the most pervasive challenges to livestock, and their intensity and distribution will be influenced by climate change. There is a need for long-term predictions to identify potential risks and highlight opportunities for control. We explore the approaches to modelling future helminth risk to livestock under climate change. One of the limitations to model creation is the lack of purpose driven data collection. We also conclude that models need to include a broad view of the livestock system to generate meaningful predictions. Abstract Climate change is a driving force for livestock parasite risk. This is especially true for helminths including the nematodes Haemonchus contortus, Teladorsagia circumcincta, Nematodirus battus, and the trematode Fasciola hepatica, since survival and development of free-living stages is chiefly affected by temperature and moisture. The paucity of long term predictions of helminth risk under climate change has driven us to explore optimal modelling approaches and identify current bottlenecks to generating meaningful predictions. We classify approaches as correlative or mechanistic, exploring their strengths and limitations. Climate is one aspect of a complex system and, at the farm level, husbandry has a dominant influence on helminth transmission. Continuing environmental change will necessitate the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies in husbandry. Long term predictive models need to have the architecture to incorporate these changes. Ultimately, an optimal modelling approach is likely to combine mechanistic processes and physiological thresholds with correlative bioclimatic modelling, incorporating changes in livestock husbandry and disease control. Irrespective of approach, the principal limitation to parasite predictions is the availability of active surveillance data and empirical data on physiological responses to climate variables. By combining improved empirical data and refined models with a broad view of the livestock system, robust projections of helminth risk can be developed. PMID:26486780

Individual differences in decision making and reward processing predict changes in cannabis use: a prospective functional magnetic resonance imaging study.

PubMed

Cousijn, Janna; Wiers, Reinout W; Ridderinkhof, K Richard; van den Brink, Wim; Veltman, Dick J; Porrino, Linda J; Goudriaan, Anna E

2013-11-01

Decision-making deficits are thought to play an important role in the development and persistence of substance use disorders. Individual differences in decision-making abilities and their underlying neurocircuitry may, therefore, constitute an important predictor for the course of substance use and the development of substance use disorders. Here, we investigate the predictive value of decision making and neural mechanisms underlying decision making for future cannabis use and problem severity in a sample of heavy cannabis users. Brain activity during a monetary decision-making task (Iowa gambling task) was compared between 32 heavy cannabis users and 41 matched non-using controls using functional magnetic resonance imaging. In addition, within the group of heavy cannabis users, associations were examined between task-related brain activations, cannabis use and cannabis use-related problems at baseline, and change in cannabis use and problem severity after a 6-month follow-up. Despite normal task performance, heavy cannabis users compared with controls showed higher activation during wins in core areas associated with decision making. Moreover, within the group of heavy cannabis users, win-related activity and activity anticipating loss outcomes in areas generally involved in executive functions predicted change in cannabis use after 6 months. These findings are consistent with previous studies and point to abnormal processing of motivational information in heavy cannabis users. A new finding is that individuals who are biased toward immediate rewards have a higher probability of increasing drug use, highlighting the importance of the relative balance between motivational processes and regulatory executive processes in the development of substance use disorders. © 2012 The Authors, Addiction Biology © 2012 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Physical activity after myocardial infarction: is it related to mental health?

PubMed

Rius-Ottenheim, Nathaly; Geleijnse, Johanna M; Kromhout, Daan; van der Mast, Roos C; Zitman, Frans G; Giltay, Erik J

2013-06-01

Physical inactivity and poor mental wellbeing are associated with poorer prognoses in patients with cardiovascular disease. We aimed to analyse the cross-sectional and prospective associations between physical activity and mental wellbeing in patients with a history of myocardial infarction. Longitudinal, observational study. We investigated 600 older subjects with a history of myocardial infarction (age range 60-80 years) who participated in the Alpha Omega Trial (AOT). They were tested twice at baseline and at 40 months follow-up for physical activity - with the Physical Activity Scale for the Elderly (PASE); depressive symptoms - with the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15); and dispositional optimism - with the Life Orientation Test (LOT-R). Linear (multilevel) and logistic regression analyses were used to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations. Physical activity was cross-sectionally associated with depressive symptoms (adjusted beta = -0.143; p = 0.001), but not with dispositional optimism (adjusted beta = 0.074; p = 0.07). We found a synchrony of change between physical activity and depressive symptoms (adjusted beta = -0.155; p < 0.001), but not with dispositional optimism (adjusted beta = 0.049; p = 0.24). Baseline physical activity did not predict depressive symptoms at 40 months follow-up. Concordant inverse associations were observed for (changes) in physical activity and depressive symptoms. Physical activity did not predict depressive symptoms or low optimism.

Account Deletion Prediction on RuNet: A Case Study of Suspicious Twitter Accounts Active During the Russian-Ukrainian Crisis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Volkova, Svitlana; Bell, Eric B.

Social networks are dynamically changing over time e.g., some accounts are being created and some are being deleted or become private. This ephemerality at both an account level and content level results from a combination of privacy concerns, spam, and deceptive behaviors. In this study we analyze a large dataset of 180,340 accounts active during the Russian-Ukrainian crisis to discover a series of predictive features for the removal or shutdown of a suspicious account. We find that unlike previously reported profile and net- work features, lexical features form the basis for highly accurate prediction of the deletion of an account.

Warming alters the metabolic balance of ecosystems

PubMed Central

Yvon-Durocher, Gabriel; Jones, J. Iwan; Trimmer, Mark; Woodward, Guy; Montoya, Jose M.

2010-01-01

The carbon cycle modulates climate change, via the regulation of atmospheric CO2, and it represents one of the most important services provided by ecosystems. However, considerable uncertainties remain concerning potential feedback between the biota and the climate. In particular, it is unclear how global warming will affect the metabolic balance between the photosynthetic fixation and respiratory release of CO2 at the ecosystem scale. Here, we present a combination of experimental field data from freshwater mesocosms, and theoretical predictions derived from the metabolic theory of ecology to investigate whether warming will alter the capacity of ecosystems to absorb CO2. Our manipulative experiment simulated the temperature increases predicted for the end of the century and revealed that ecosystem respiration increased at a faster rate than primary production, reducing carbon sequestration by 13 per cent. These results confirmed our theoretical predictions based on the differential activation energies of these two processes. Using only the activation energies for whole ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration we provide a theoretical prediction that accurately quantified the precise magnitude of the reduction in carbon sequestration observed experimentally. We suggest the combination of whole-ecosystem manipulative experiments and ecological theory is one of the most promising and fruitful research areas to predict the impacts of climate change on key ecosystem services. PMID:20513719

Impulsive Approach Tendencies towards Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviors, but Not Reflective Intentions, Prospectively Predict Non-Exercise Activity Thermogenesis

PubMed Central

Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

2014-01-01

Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined. PMID:25526596

Impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity and sedentary behaviors, but not reflective intentions, prospectively predict non-exercise activity thermogenesis.

PubMed

Cheval, Boris; Sarrazin, Philippe; Pelletier, Luc

2014-01-01

Understanding the determinants of non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT) is crucial, given its extensive health benefits. Some scholars have assumed that a proneness to react differently to environmental cues promoting sedentary versus active behaviors could be responsible for inter-individual differences in NEAT. In line with this reflection and grounded on the Reflective-Impulsive Model, we test the assumption that impulsive processes related to sedentary and physical activity behaviors can prospectively predict NEAT, operationalized as spontaneous effort exerted to maintain low intensity muscle contractions within the release phases of an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. Participants (n = 91) completed a questionnaire assessing their intentions to adopt physical activity behaviors and a manikin task to assess impulsive approach tendencies towards physical activity behaviors (IAPA) and sedentary behaviors (IASB). Participants were then instructed to perform a maximal handgrip strength task and an intermittent maximal isometric contraction task. As hypothesized, multilevel regression analyses revealed that spontaneous effort was (a) positively predicted by IAPA, (b) negatively predicted by IASB, and (c) was not predicted by physical activity intentions, after controlling for some confounding variables such as age, sex, usual PA level and average force provided during the maximal-contraction phases of the task. These effects remained constant throughout all the phases of the task. This study demonstrated that impulsive processes may play a unique role in predicting spontaneous physical activity behaviors. Theoretically, this finding reinforces the utility of a motivational approach based on dual-process models to explain inter-individual differences in NEAT. Implications for health behavior theories and behavior change interventions are outlined.

First-principles prediction of new photocatalyst materials with visible-light absorption and improved charge separation: surface modification of rutile TiO₂ with nanoclusters of MgO and Ga₂O₃.

PubMed

Nolan, Michael

2012-11-01

Titanium dioxide is an important and widely studied photocatalytic material, but to achieve photocatalytic activity under visible-light absorption, it needs to have a narrower band gap and reduced charge carrier recombination. First-principles simulations are presented in this paper to show that heterostructures of rutil TiO₂ modified with nanoclusters of MgO and Ga₂O₃ will be new photocatalytically active materials in the UV (MgO-TiO₂) and visible (Ga₂O₃-TiO₂) regions of the solar spectrum. In particular, our investigations of a model of the excited state of the heterostructures demonstrate that upon light excitation electrons and holes can be separated onto the TiO₂ surface and the metal oxide nanocluster, which will reduce charge recombination and improve photocatalytic activity. For MgO-modified TiO₂, no significant band gap change is predicted, but for Ga₂O₃-modified TiO₂ we predict a band gap change of up to 0.6 eV, which is sufficient to induce visible light absorption. Comparisons with unmodified TiO₂ and other TiO₂-based photocatalyst structures are presented.

A market systems analysis of the U.S. Sport Utility Vehicle market considering frontal crash safety technology and policy.

PubMed

Hoffenson, Steven; Frischknecht, Bart D; Papalambros, Panos Y

2013-01-01

Active safety features and adjustments to the New Car Assessment Program (NCAP) consumer-information crash tests have the potential to decrease the number of serious traffic injuries each year, according to previous studies. However, literature suggests that risk reductions, particularly in the automotive market, are often accompanied by adjusted consumer risk tolerance, and so these potential safety benefits may not be fully realized due to changes in consumer purchasing or driving behavior. This article approaches safety in the new vehicle market, particularly in the Sport Utility Vehicle and Crossover Utility Vehicle segments, from a market systems perspective. Crash statistics and simulations are used to predict the effects of design and policy changes on occupant crash safety, and discrete choice experiments are conducted to estimate the values consumers place on vehicle attributes. These models are combined in a market simulation that forecasts how consumers respond to the available vehicle alternatives, resulting in predictions of the market share of each vehicle and how the change in fleet mixture influences societal outcomes including injuries, fuel consumption, and firm profits. The model is tested for a scenario where active safety features are implemented across the new vehicle fleet and a scenario where the U.S. frontal NCAP test speed is modified. While results exhibit evidence of consumer risk adjustment, they support adding active safety features and lowering the NCAP frontal test speed, as these changes are predicted to improve the welfare of both firms and society. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can changes in psychosocial factors and residency explain the decrease in physical activity during the transition from high school to college or university?

PubMed

Van Dyck, Delfien; De Bourdeaudhuij, Ilse; Deliens, Tom; Deforche, Benedicte

2015-04-01

When students make the transition from high school to college or university, their physical activity (PA) levels decrease strongly. Consequently, it is of crucial importance to identify the determinants of this decline in PA. The study aims were to (1) examine changes in psychosocial factors in students during the transition from high school to college/university, (2) examine if changes in psychosocial factors and residency can predict changes in PA, and (3) investigate the moderating effects of residency on the relationship between changes in psychosocial factors and changes in PA. Between March 2008 and October 2010, 291 Flemish students participated in a longitudinal study, with baseline measurements during the final year of high school and follow-up measurements at the start of second year of college/university. At both time points, participants completed a questionnaire assessing demographics, active transportation, leisure-time sports, psychosocial variables, and residency. Repeated measures MANOVA analyses and multiple moderated hierarchic regression analyses were conducted. Modeling, self-efficacy, competition-related benefits, and health-related, external and social barriers decreased, while health-related benefits and time-related barriers increased from baseline to follow-up. Decreases in modeling and time-related barriers were associated with a decrease in active transportation (adjusted R(2) = 3.2%); residency, decreases in self-efficacy, competition-related benefits, and increases in health- and time-related barriers predicted a decrease in leisure-time sports (adjusted R(2) = 29.3%). Residency only moderated two associations between psychosocial factors and changes in PA. Residency and changes in psychosocial factors were mainly important to explain the decrease in leisure-time sports. Other factors such as distance to college/university are likely more important to explain the decrease in active transportation; these are worth exploring in future studies. Because few interactions were found, similar interventions, focusing on self-efficacy, time management, and increasing perceived benefits may be effective to increase leisure-time sports in all students.

Change in physical education motivation and physical activity behavior during middle school.

PubMed

Cox, Anne E; Smith, Alan L; Williams, Lavon

2008-11-01

To test a mediational model of the relationships among motivation-related variables in middle-school physical education and leisure-time physical activity behavior. Sixth- and seventh-grade physical education students from five middle schools in the midwest United States completed a survey containing measures of study variables on two occasions, 1 year apart. Motivation-related constructs positively predicted leisure-time physical activity behavior. Enjoyment of activities in physical education and physical activity during class mediated the relationship between self-determined motivation in physical education and leisure-time physical activity. Perceived competence, autonomy, and relatedness were important antecedent variables in the model, with autonomy and relatedness showing less stability over time and positively predicting self-determined motivation. Students' leisure-time physical activity is linked to motivation-related experiences in physical education. Perceptions of competence, autonomy, and relatedness, self-determined motivation, enjoyment, and physical activity in the physical education setting directly or indirectly predict leisure-time physical activity. The associations suggest that more adaptive motivation corresponds to transfer of behavior across contexts. Also, the findings suggest that the efficacy of school-based physical activity interventions, within and outside of school, is linked to the degree of support for students' self-determined motivation.

Co-Variation of Peripheral Levels of miR-1202 and Brain Activity and Connectivity During Antidepressant Treatment.

PubMed

Lopez, Juan Pablo; Pereira, Fabricio; Richard-Devantoy, Stéphane; Berlim, Marcelo; Chachamovich, Eduardo; Fiori, Laura M; Niola, Paola; Turecki, Gustavo; Jollant, Fabrice

2017-09-01

MicroRNAs are short non-coding molecules that play a major role in regulating gene expression. Peripheral levels of miR-1202 have been shown to predict and mediate antidepressant response. However, it is not clear to what extent these peripheral measures reflect central neural changes in vivo. We approached this problem with the combined use of peripheral miR-1202 measures and neuroimaging. At baseline and after 8 weeks of desvenlafaxine (50-100 mg die), 20 patients were scanned with 3T magnetic resonance imaging, first at rest then during the Go/NoGo task, a classical test of response inhibition. Blood samples were collected at both time points. During resting state, lower baseline miR-1202 levels were predictive of increased connectivity from T0 to T8 between the posterior cingulate and the prefrontal, parietal, and occipital cortices. Changes in miR-1202 levels following desvenlafaxine treatment were negatively correlated with changes in activity in right precuneus within the default-mode network, and in connectivity between the posterior cingulate and the temporal and prefrontal cortices, and the precuneus. During the Go/NoGo task, baseline miR-1202 levels and changes in these levels were correlated with activity changes in different regions, including bilateral prefrontal, insular, cingulate, and temporal cortices, and left putamen and claustrum. Finally, secondary analyses in a subset of patients showed a trend for a significant correlation between miR-1202 levels and glutamate levels measured by spectroscopy. Changes in peripheral miR-1202 levels were therefore associated with changes in brain activity and connectivity in a network of brain regions associated with depression and antidepressant response. These effects may be mediated by the glutamatergic system.

A Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Model for Pregnant Women to Predict the Pharmacokinetics of Drugs Metabolized Via Several Enzymatic Pathways.

PubMed

Dallmann, André; Ince, Ibrahim; Coboeken, Katrin; Eissing, Thomas; Hempel, Georg

2017-09-18

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic modeling is considered a valuable tool for predicting pharmacokinetic changes in pregnancy to subsequently guide in-vivo pharmacokinetic trials in pregnant women. The objective of this study was to extend and verify a previously developed physiologically based pharmacokinetic model for pregnant women for the prediction of pharmacokinetics of drugs metabolized via several cytochrome P450 enzymes. Quantitative information on gestation-specific changes in enzyme activity available in the literature was incorporated in a pregnancy physiologically based pharmacokinetic model and the pharmacokinetics of eight drugs metabolized via one or multiple cytochrome P450 enzymes was predicted. The tested drugs were caffeine, midazolam, nifedipine, metoprolol, ondansetron, granisetron, diazepam, and metronidazole. Pharmacokinetic predictions were evaluated by comparison with in-vivo pharmacokinetic data obtained from the literature. The pregnancy physiologically based pharmacokinetic model successfully predicted the pharmacokinetics of all tested drugs. The observed pregnancy-induced pharmacokinetic changes were qualitatively and quantitatively reasonably well predicted for all drugs. Ninety-seven percent of the mean plasma concentrations predicted in pregnant women fell within a twofold error range and 63% within a 1.25-fold error range. For all drugs, the predicted area under the concentration-time curve was within a 1.25-fold error range. The presented pregnancy physiologically based pharmacokinetic model can quantitatively predict the pharmacokinetics of drugs that are metabolized via one or multiple cytochrome P450 enzymes by integrating prior knowledge of the pregnancy-related effect on these enzymes. This pregnancy physiologically based pharmacokinetic model may thus be used to identify potential exposure changes in pregnant women a priori and to eventually support informed decision making when clinical trials are designed in this special population.

Solar Activity Forecasting for use in Orbit Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth

2001-01-01

Orbital prediction for satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO) or low planetary orbit depends strongly on exospheric densities. Solar activity forecasting is important in orbital prediction, as the solar UV and EUV inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth and planets, forming the exosphere in which satellites orbit. Geomagnetic effects also relate to solar activity. Because of the complex and ephemeral nature of solar activity, with different cycles varying in strength by more than 100%, many different forecasting techniques have been utilized. The methods range from purely numerical techniques (essentially curve fitting) to numerous oddball schemes, as well as a small subset, called 'Precursor techniques.' The situation can be puzzling, owing to the numerous methodologies involved, somewhat akin to the numerous ether theories near the turn of the last century. Nevertheless, the Precursor techniques alone have a physical basis, namely dynamo theory, which provides a physical explanation for why this subset seems to work. I discuss this solar cycle's predictions, as well as the Sun's observed activity. I also discuss the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, interior dynamo magnetic fields. As a result, one may then update solar activity predictions continuously, by monitoring the solar magnetic fields as they change throughout the solar cycle. This paper ends by providing a glimpse into what the next solar cycle (#24) portends.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic model of mechanism-based inhibition of CYP3A by clarithromycin.

PubMed

Quinney, Sara K; Zhang, Xin; Lucksiri, Aroonrut; Gorski, J Christopher; Li, Lang; Hall, Stephen D

2010-02-01

The prediction of clinical drug-drug interactions (DDIs) due to mechanism-based inhibitors of CYP3A is complicated when the inhibitor itself is metabolized by CYP3Aas in the case of clarithromycin. Previous attempts to predict the effects of clarithromycin on CYP3A substrates, e.g., midazolam, failed to account for nonlinear metabolism of clarithromycin. A semiphysiologically based pharmacokinetic model was developed for clarithromycin and midazolam metabolism, incorporating hepatic and intestinal metabolism by CYP3A and non-CYP3A mechanisms. CYP3A inactivation by clarithromycin occurred at both sites. K(I) and k(inact) values for clarithromycin obtained from in vitro sources were unable to accurately predict the clinical effect of clarithromycin on CYP3A activity. An iterative approach determined the optimum values to predict in vivo effects of clarithromycin on midazolam to be 5.3 microM for K(i) and 0.4 and 4 h(-1) for k(inact) in the liver and intestines, respectively. The incorporation of CYP3A-dependent metabolism of clarithromycin enabled prediction of its nonlinear pharmacokinetics. The predicted 2.6-fold change in intravenous midazolam area under the plasma concentration-time curve (AUC) after 500 mg of clarithromycin orally twice daily was consistent with clinical observations. Although the mean predicted 5.3-fold change in the AUC of oral midazolam was lower than mean observed values, it was within the range of observations. Intestinal CYP3A activity was less sensitive to changes in K(I), k(inact), and CYP3A half-life than hepatic CYP3A. This semiphysiologically based pharmacokinetic model incorporating CYP3A inactivation in the intestine and liver accurately predicts the nonlinear pharmacokinetics of clarithromycin and the DDI observed between clarithromycin and midazolam. Furthermore, this model framework can be applied to other mechanism-based inhibitors.

Coupling News Sentiment with Web Browsing Data Improves Prediction of Intra-Day Price Dynamics

PubMed Central

Ranco, Gabriele; Bordino, Ilaria; Bormetti, Giacomo; Caldarelli, Guido; Lillo, Fabrizio; Treccani, Michele

2016-01-01

The new digital revolution of big data is deeply changing our capability of understanding society and forecasting the outcome of many social and economic systems. Unfortunately, information can be very heterogeneous in the importance, relevance, and surprise it conveys, affecting severely the predictive power of semantic and statistical methods. Here we show that the aggregation of web users’ behavior can be elicited to overcome this problem in a hard to predict complex system, namely the financial market. Specifically, our in-sample analysis shows that the combined use of sentiment analysis of news and browsing activity of users of Yahoo! Finance greatly helps forecasting intra-day and daily price changes of a set of 100 highly capitalized US stocks traded in the period 2012–2013. Sentiment analysis or browsing activity when taken alone have very small or no predictive power. Conversely, when considering a news signal where in a given time interval we compute the average sentiment of the clicked news, weighted by the number of clicks, we show that for nearly 50% of the companies such signal Granger-causes hourly price returns. Our result indicates a “wisdom-of-the-crowd” effect that allows to exploit users’ activity to identify and weigh properly the relevant and surprising news, enhancing considerably the forecasting power of the news sentiment. PMID:26808833

Active Sampling State Dynamically Enhances Olfactory Bulb Odor Representation.

PubMed

Jordan, Rebecca; Fukunaga, Izumi; Kollo, Mihaly; Schaefer, Andreas T

2018-06-27

The olfactory bulb (OB) is the first site of synaptic odor information processing, yet a wealth of contextual and learned information has been described in its activity. To investigate the mechanistic basis of contextual modulation, we use whole-cell recordings to measure odor responses across rapid learning episodes in identified mitral/tufted cells (MTCs). Across these learning episodes, diverse response changes occur already during the first sniff cycle. Motivated mice develop active sniffing strategies across learning that robustly correspond to the odor response changes, resulting in enhanced odor representation. Evoking fast sniffing in different behavioral states demonstrates that response changes during active sampling exceed those predicted from feedforward input alone. Finally, response changes are highly correlated in tufted cells, but not mitral cells, indicating there are cell-type-specific effects on odor representation during active sampling. Altogether, we show that active sampling is strongly associated with enhanced OB responsiveness on rapid timescales. Copyright © 2018 The Francis Crick Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’

PubMed Central

Strimas-Mackey, Matthew; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Granados, Alys; Bernard, Henry; Giordano, Anthony J.; Helmy, Olga E.

2017-01-01

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities—currently the most diverse on Earth—may become depauperate (‘biotic attrition’). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely. PMID:28100818

Lowland biotic attrition revisited: body size and variation among climate change 'winners' and 'losers'.

PubMed

Brodie, Jedediah F; Strimas-Mackey, Matthew; Mohd-Azlan, Jayasilan; Granados, Alys; Bernard, Henry; Giordano, Anthony J; Helmy, Olga E

2017-01-25

The responses of lowland tropical communities to climate change will critically influence global biodiversity but remain poorly understood. If species in these systems are unable to tolerate warming, the communities-currently the most diverse on Earth-may become depauperate ('biotic attrition'). In response to temperature changes, animals can adjust their distribution in space or their activity in time, but these two components of the niche are seldom considered together. We assessed the spatio-temporal niches of rainforest mammal species in Borneo across gradients in elevation and temperature. Most species are not predicted to experience changes in spatio-temporal niche availability, even under pessimistic warming scenarios. Responses to temperature are not predictable by phylogeny but do appear to be trait-based, being much more variable in smaller-bodied taxa. General circulation models and weather station data suggest unprecedentedly high midday temperatures later in the century; predicted responses to this warming among small-bodied species range from 9% losses to 6% gains in spatio-temporal niche availability, while larger species have close to 0% predicted change. Body mass may therefore be a key ecological trait influencing the identity of climate change winners and losers. Mammal species composition will probably change in some areas as temperatures rise, but full-scale biotic attrition this century appears unlikely. © 2017 The Author(s).

Finite element predictions of active buckling control of stiffened panels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thompson, Danniella M.; Griffin, O. H., Jr.

1993-04-01

Materials systems and structures that can respond 'intelligently' to their environment are currently being proposed and investigated. A series of finite element analyses was performed to investigate the potential for active buckling control of two different stiffened panels by embedded shape memory alloy (SMA) rods. Changes in the predicted buckling load increased with the magnitude of the actuation level for a given structural concept. Increasing the number of actuators for a given concept yielded greater predicted increases in buckling load. Considerable control authority was generated with a small number of actuators, with greater authority demonstrated for those structural concepts where the activated SMA rods could develop greater forces and moments on the structure. Relatively simple and inexpensive analyses were performed with standard finite elements to determine such information, indicating the viability of these types of models for design purposes.

Context Memory Decline in Middle Aged Adults is Related to Changes in Prefrontal Cortex Function

PubMed Central

Kwon, Diana; Maillet, David; Pasvanis, Stamatoula; Ankudowich, Elizabeth; Grady, Cheryl L.; Rajah, M. Natasha

2016-01-01

The ability to encode and retrieve spatial and temporal contextual details of episodic memories (context memory) begins to decline at midlife. In the current study, event-related fMRI was used to investigate the neural correlates of context memory decline in healthy middle aged adults (MA) compared with young adults (YA). Participants were scanned while performing easy and hard versions of spatial and temporal context memory tasks. Scans were obtained at encoding and retrieval. Significant reductions in context memory retrieval accuracy were observed in MA, compared with YA. The fMRI results revealed that overall, both groups exhibited similar patterns of brain activity in parahippocampal cortex, ventral occipito-temporal regions and prefrontal cortex (PFC) during encoding. In contrast, at retrieval, there were group differences in ventral occipito-temporal and PFC activity, due to these regions being more activated in MA, compared with YA. Furthermore, only in YA, increased encoding activity in ventrolateral PFC, and increased retrieval activity in occipital cortex, predicted increased retrieval accuracy. In MA, increased retrieval activity in anterior PFC predicted increased retrieval accuracy. These results suggest that there are changes in PFC contributions to context memory at midlife. PMID:25882039

The change of the brain activation patterns as children learn algebra equation solving

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yulin; Carter, Cameron S.; Silk, Eli M.; Stenger, V. Andrew; Fissell, Kate; Goode, Adam; Anderson, John R.

2004-04-01

In a brain imaging study of children learning algebra, it is shown that the same regions are active in children solving equations as are active in experienced adults solving equations. As with adults, practice in symbol manipulation produces a reduced activation in prefrontal cortex area. However, unlike adults, practice seems also to produce a decrease in a parietal area that is holding an image of the equation. This finding suggests that adolescents' brain responses are more plastic and change more with practice. These results are integrated in a cognitive model that predicts both the behavioral and brain imaging results.

Frontal Theta Links Prediction Errors to Behavioral Adaptation in Reinforcement Learning

PubMed Central

Cavanagh, James F.; Frank, Michael J.; Klein, Theresa J.; Allen, John J.B.

2009-01-01

Investigations into action monitoring have consistently detailed a fronto-central voltage deflection in the Event-Related Potential (ERP) following the presentation of negatively valenced feedback, sometimes termed the Feedback Related Negativity (FRN). The FRN has been proposed to reflect a neural response to prediction errors during reinforcement learning, yet the single trial relationship between neural activity and the quanta of expectation violation remains untested. Although ERP methods are not well suited to single trial analyses, the FRN has been associated with theta band oscillatory perturbations in the medial prefrontal cortex. Medio-frontal theta oscillations have been previously associated with expectation violation and behavioral adaptation and are well suited to single trial analysis. Here, we recorded EEG activity during a probabilistic reinforcement learning task and fit the performance data to an abstract computational model (Q-learning) for calculation of single-trial reward prediction errors. Single-trial theta oscillatory activities following feedback were investigated within the context of expectation (prediction error) and adaptation (subsequent reaction time change). Results indicate that interactive medial and lateral frontal theta activities reflect the degree of negative and positive reward prediction error in the service of behavioral adaptation. These different brain areas use prediction error calculations for different behavioral adaptations: with medial frontal theta reflecting the utilization of prediction errors for reaction time slowing (specifically following errors), but lateral frontal theta reflecting prediction errors leading to working memory-related reaction time speeding for the correct choice. PMID:19969093

Future climate change drives increases in forest fires and summertime OC concentrations in the Western U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spracklen, D. V.; Logan, J. A.; Mickley, L. J.; Park, R. J.; Flannigan, M. D.; Westerling, A. L.

2006-12-01

Increased forest fire activity in the Western United States appears to be driven by increasing spring and summer temperatures. Here we make a first estimate of how climate-driven changes in fire activity will influence summertime organic carbon (OC) concentrations in the Western US. We use output from a general circulation model (GCM) combined with area burned regressions to predict how area burned will change between present day and 2050. Calculated area burned is used to create future emission estimates for the Western U.S. and we use a global chemical transport model (CTM) to predict future changes in OC concentrations. Stepwise linear regression is used to determine the best relationships between observed area burned for 1980- 2004 and variables chosen from temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, rainfall and drought indices from the Candaian Fire Weather Index Model. Best predictors are ecosytem dependent but typically include mean summer temperature and mean drought code. In forest ecosystems of the Western U.S. our regressions explain 50-60% of the variance in annual area burned. Between 2000 and 2050 increases in temperature and reductions in precipitation, as predicted by the GISS GCM, cause mean area burned in the western U.S. to increase by 30-55%. We use the GEOS-Chem CTM to show that these increased emissions result in an increase in summertime western U.S. OC concentrations by 55% over current concentrations. Our results show that the predicted increase in future wild fires will have important consequences for western US air quality and visibility.

Predicting fiber refractive index from a measured preform index profile

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiiveri, P.; Koponen, J.; Harra, J.; Novotny, S.; Husu, H.; Ihalainen, H.; Kokki, T.; Aallos, V.; Kimmelma, O.; Paul, J.

2018-02-01

When producing fiber lasers and amplifiers, silica glass compositions consisting of three to six different materials are needed. Due to the varying needs of different applications, substantial number of different glass compositions are used in the active fiber structures. Often it is not possible to find material parameters for theoretical models to estimate thermal and mechanical properties of those glass compositions. This makes it challenging to predict accurately fiber core refractive index values, even if the preform index profile is measured. Usually the desired fiber refractive index value is achieved experimentally, which is expensive. To overcome this problem, we analyzed statistically the changes between the measured preform and fiber index values. We searched for correlations that would help to predict the Δn-value change from preform to fiber in a situation where we don't know the values of the glass material parameters that define the change. Our index change models were built using the data collected from preforms and fibers made by the Direct Nanoparticle Deposition (DND) technology.

The changing psychology of culture from 1800 through 2000.

PubMed

Greenfield, Patricia M

2013-09-01

The Google Books Ngram Viewer allows researchers to quantify culture across centuries by searching millions of books. This tool was used to test theory-based predictions about implications of an urbanizing population for the psychology of culture. Adaptation to rural environments prioritizes social obligation and duty, giving to other people, social belonging, religion in everyday life, authority relations, and physical activity. Adaptation to urban environments requires more individualistic and materialistic values; such adaptation prioritizes choice, personal possessions, and child-centered socialization in order to foster the development of psychological mindedness and the unique self. The Google Ngram Viewer generated relative frequencies of words indexing these values from the years 1800 to 2000 in American English books. As urban populations increased and rural populations declined, word frequencies moved in the predicted directions. Books published in the United Kingdom replicated this pattern. The analysis established long-term relationships between ecological change and cultural change, as predicted by the theory of social change and human development (Greenfield, 2009).

Distinct frontal and amygdala correlates of change detection for facial identity and expression

PubMed Central

Achaibou, Amal; Loth, Eva

2016-01-01

Recruitment of ‘top-down’ frontal attentional mechanisms is held to support detection of changes in task-relevant stimuli. Fluctuations in intrinsic frontal activity have been shown to impact task performance more generally. Meanwhile, the amygdala has been implicated in ‘bottom-up’ attentional capture by threat. Here, 22 adult human participants took part in a functional magnetic resonance change detection study aimed at investigating the correlates of successful (vs failed) detection of changes in facial identity vs expression. For identity changes, we expected prefrontal recruitment to differentiate ‘hit’ from ‘miss’ trials, in line with previous reports. Meanwhile, we postulated that a different mechanism would support detection of emotionally salient changes. Specifically, elevated amygdala activation was predicted to be associated with successful detection of threat-related changes in expression, over-riding the influence of fluctuations in top-down attention. Our findings revealed that fusiform activity tracked change detection across conditions. Ventrolateral prefrontal cortical activity was uniquely linked to detection of changes in identity not expression, and amygdala activity to detection of changes from neutral to fearful expressions. These results are consistent with distinct mechanisms supporting detection of changes in face identity vs expression, the former potentially reflecting top-down attention, the latter bottom-up attentional capture by stimulus emotional salience. PMID:26245835

Parents' Readiness to Change Affects BMI Reduction Outcomes in Adolescents with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome

PubMed Central

Jakubowski, Karen P.; Black, Jessica J.; El Nokali, Nermeen E.; Belendiuk, Katherine A.; Hannon, Tamara S.; Arslanian, Silva A.; Rofey, Dana L.

2012-01-01

Evidence supports the importance of parental involvement for youth's ability to manage weight. This study utilized the stages of change (SOC) model to assess readiness to change weight control behaviors as well as the predictive value of SOC in determining BMI outcomes in forty adolescent-parent dyads (mean adolescent age = 15 ± 1.84 (13–20), BMI = 37 ± 8.60; 70% white) participating in a weight management intervention for adolescent females with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Adolescents and parents completed a questionnaire assessing their SOC for the following four weight control domains: increasing dietary portion control, increasing fruit and vegetable consumption, decreasing dietary fat, and increasing usual physical activity. Linear regression analyses indicated that adolescent change in total SOC from baseline to treatment completion was not predictive of adolescent change in BMI from baseline to treatment completion. However, parent change in total SOC from baseline to treatment completion was predictive of adolescent change in BMI, (t(24) = 2.15, p = 0.043). Findings support future research which carefully assesses adolescent and parent SOC and potentially develops interventions targeting adolescent and parental readiness to adopt healthy lifestyle goals. PMID:22970350

Activity re-assignment and microclimate selection of free-living Arabian oryx: responses that could minimise the effects of climate change on homeostasis?

PubMed

Hetem, Robyn S; Strauss, W Maartin; Fick, Linda G; Maloney, Shane K; Meyer, Leith C R; Shobrak, Mohammed; Fuller, Andrea; Mitchell, Duncan

2012-12-01

Predicting whether behaviour could buffer the effects of climate change on long-lived mammals requires a better understanding of the long-term behavioural responses of mammals to environmental stress. Using biologging, we measured locomotor activity and microclimate selection, over eight months, in five Arabian oryx (Oryx leucoryx) living free in a Saudi Arabian desert. The oryx displayed seasonal flexibility in activity patterns, shifting from a continuous 24-h activity pattern with crepuscular peaks in cooler months to a predominantly nocturnal activity pattern during the hottest months, without reducing the total 24-h activity level. The proportion of total 24-h activity that occurred during daylight hours was just 29±8% during the hottest months, versus 53±8% (mean±SD, n=5 oryx) in the other months. The attenuation in diurnal activity levels during the hot months was accompanied by the selection of cooler microclimates, presumably via shade seeking, during the heat of the day. Analysis of miniature black globe (miniglobe) temperature from a remote sensor on the collar of two female animals revealed that oryx selected microclimates cooler than the microclimates in direct sun at higher environmental heat loads across all periods, but with enhanced efficiency during the dry periods. We have quantified activity re-assignment and microclimate selection as responses to hot arid conditions in a free-living artiodactyl. Such flexible behavioural processes may act to buffer the adverse effects of the progressively hotter and drier conditions predicted to occur with climate change. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

A PBPK Model to Predict Disposition of CYP3A-Metabolized Drugs in Pregnant Women: Verification and Discerning the Site of CYP3A Induction

PubMed Central

Ke, A B; Nallani, S C; Zhao, P; Rostami-Hodjegan, A; Unadkat, J D

2012-01-01

Besides logistical and ethical concerns, evaluation of safety and efficacy of medications in pregnant women is complicated by marked changes in pharmacokinetics (PK) of drugs. For example, CYP3A activity is induced during the third trimester (T3). We explored whether a previously published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model could quantitatively predict PK profiles of CYP3A-metabolized drugs during T3, and discern the site of CYP3A induction (i.e., liver, intestine, or both). The model accounted for gestational age-dependent changes in maternal physiological function and hepatic CYP3A activity. For model verification, mean plasma area under the curve (AUC), peak plasma concentration (Cmax), and trough plasma concentration (Cmin) of midazolam (MDZ), nifedipine (NIF), and indinavir (IDV) were predicted and compared with published studies. The PBPK model successfully predicted MDZ, NIF, and IDV disposition during T3. A sensitivity analysis suggested that CYP3A induction in T3 is most likely hepatic and not intestinal. Our PBPK model is a useful tool to evaluate different dosing regimens during T3 for drugs cleared primarily via CYP3A metabolism. PMID:23835883

Predicting novel histopathological microlesions in human epileptic brain through transcriptional clustering.

PubMed

Dachet, Fabien; Bagla, Shruti; Keren-Aviram, Gal; Morton, Andrew; Balan, Karina; Saadat, Laleh; Valyi-Nagy, Tibor; Kupsky, William; Song, Fei; Dratz, Edward; Loeb, Jeffrey A

2015-02-01

Although epilepsy is associated with a variety of abnormalities, exactly why some brain regions produce seizures and others do not is not known. We developed a method to identify cellular changes in human epileptic neocortex using transcriptional clustering. A paired analysis of high and low spiking tissues recorded in vivo from 15 patients predicted 11 cell-specific changes together with their 'cellular interactome'. These predictions were validated histologically revealing millimetre-sized 'microlesions' together with a global increase in vascularity and microglia. Microlesions were easily identified in deeper cortical layers using the neuronal marker NeuN, showed a marked reduction in neuronal processes, and were associated with nearby activation of MAPK/CREB signalling, a marker of epileptic activity, in superficial layers. Microlesions constitute a common, undiscovered layer-specific abnormality of neuronal connectivity in human neocortex that may be responsible for many 'non-lesional' forms of epilepsy. The transcriptional clustering approach used here could be applied more broadly to predict cellular differences in other brain and complex tissue disorders. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Guarantors of Brain. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Latitudinal variation in seasonal activity and mortality in ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta).

PubMed

Sperry, Jinelle H; Blouin-Demers, Gabriel; Carfagno, Gerardo L F; Weatherhead, Patrick J

2010-06-01

The ecology of ectotherms should be particularly affected by latitude because so much of their biology is temperature dependent. Current latitudinal patterns should also be informative about how ectotherms will have to modify their behavior in response to climate change. We used data from a total of 175 adult black ratsnakes (Elaphe obsoleta) radio-tracked in Ontario, Illinois, and Texas, a latitudinal distance of >1500 km, to test predictions about how seasonal patterns of activity and mortality should vary with latitude. Despite pronounced differences in temperatures among study locations, and despite ratsnakes in Texas not hibernating and switching from diurnal to nocturnal activity in the summer, seasonal patterns of snake activity were remarkably similar during the months that snakes in all populations were active. Rather than being a function of temperature, activity may be driven by the timing of reproduction, which appears similar among populations. Contrary to the prediction that mortality should be highest in the most active population, overall mortality did not follow a clinal pattern. Winter mortality did increase with latitude, however, consistent with temperature limiting the northern distribution of ratsnakes. This result was opposite that found in the only previous study of latitudinal variation in winter mortality in reptiles, which may be a consequence of whether or not the animals exhibit true hibernation. Collectively, these results suggest that, at least in the northern part of their range, ratsnakes should be able to adjust easily to, and may benefit from, a warmer climate, although climate-based changes to the snakes' prey or habitat, for example, could alter that prediction.

Gradual Growth versus Shape Invariance in Perceptual Decision Making

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rouder, Jeffrey N.; Yue, Yu; Speckman, Paul L.; Pratte, Michael S.; Province, Jordan M.

2010-01-01

A dominant theme in modeling human perceptual judgments is that sensory neural activity is summed or integrated until a critical bound is reached. Such models predict that, in general, the shape of response time distributions change across conditions, although in practice, this shape change may be subtle. An alternative view is that response time…

Experiential or behavioral processes: which one is prominent in physical activity? Examining the processes of change 1 year after an intervention of therapeutic education among adults with obesity.

PubMed

Romain, A J; Attalin, V; Sultan, A; Boegner, C; Gernigon, C; Avignon, A

2014-11-01

Although physical activity (PA) is essential, most obese people will not engage in its practice. The transtheoretical model (TTM) and its processes of change (POC) contribute to the understanding of behavior change regarding PA. The present study aimed to test how POC are associated with a progression through the stages of change (SOC) and whether they predict BMI change. Interventional study. A total of 134 subjects participated in an education program, were called at 1 year and 62 of them provided follow-up data. Participants completed the SOC and POC questionnaires at baseline, at 1 year and were classified according to their SOC progression. Participants who progressed through SOC lost more weight (p<0.001). Significant interactions were found for three out of five POC (p<0.05). Progression through SOC was associated with an increased use of POC. Weight loss was predicted by two behavioral POC. Results support the previous cross-sectional studies showing that physically active people use more frequently POC. The present findings support the development of TTM-grounded behavioral interventions targeted to obese patients. Identifying methods to promote POC use to improve adherence to weight guidelines may lead to improved clinical outcomes and quality of life. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cumulative activation during positive and negative events and state anxiety predicts subsequent inertia of amygdala reactivity.

PubMed

Pichon, Swann; Miendlarzewska, Ewa A; Eryilmaz, Hamdi; Vuilleumier, Patrik

2015-02-01

Inertia, together with intensity and valence, is an important component of emotion. We tested whether positive and negative events generate lingering changes in subsequent brain responses to unrelated threat stimuli and investigated the impact of individual anxiety. We acquired fMRI data while participants watched positive or negative movie-clips and subsequently performed an unrelated task with fearful and neutral faces. We quantified changes in amygdala reactivity to fearful faces as a function of the valence of preceding movies and cumulative neural activity evoked during them. We demonstrate that amygdala responses to emotional movies spill over to subsequent processing of threat information in a valence-specific manner: negative movies enhance later amygdala activation whereas positive movies attenuate it. Critically, the magnitude of such changes is predicted by a measure of cumulative amygdala responses to the preceding positive or negative movies. These effects appear independent of overt attention, are regionally limited to amygdala, with no changes in functional connectivity. Finally, individuals with higher state anxiety displayed stronger modulation of amygdala reactivity by positive movies. These results suggest that intensity and valence of emotional events as well as anxiety levels promote local changes in amygdala sensitivity to threat, highlighting the importance of past experience in shaping future affective reactivity. © The Author (2014). Published by Oxford University Press. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Normal Modes Expose Active Sites in Enzymes.

PubMed

Glantz-Gashai, Yitav; Meirson, Tomer; Samson, Abraham O

2016-12-01

Accurate prediction of active sites is an important tool in bioinformatics. Here we present an improved structure based technique to expose active sites that is based on large changes of solvent accessibility accompanying normal mode dynamics. The technique which detects EXPOsure of active SITes through normal modEs is named EXPOSITE. The technique is trained using a small 133 enzyme dataset and tested using a large 845 enzyme dataset, both with known active site residues. EXPOSITE is also tested in a benchmark protein ligand dataset (PLD) comprising 48 proteins with and without bound ligands. EXPOSITE is shown to successfully locate the active site in most instances, and is found to be more accurate than other structure-based techniques. Interestingly, in several instances, the active site does not correspond to the largest pocket. EXPOSITE is advantageous due to its high precision and paves the way for structure based prediction of active site in enzymes.

Normal Modes Expose Active Sites in Enzymes

PubMed Central

Glantz-Gashai, Yitav; Samson, Abraham O.

2016-01-01

Accurate prediction of active sites is an important tool in bioinformatics. Here we present an improved structure based technique to expose active sites that is based on large changes of solvent accessibility accompanying normal mode dynamics. The technique which detects EXPOsure of active SITes through normal modEs is named EXPOSITE. The technique is trained using a small 133 enzyme dataset and tested using a large 845 enzyme dataset, both with known active site residues. EXPOSITE is also tested in a benchmark protein ligand dataset (PLD) comprising 48 proteins with and without bound ligands. EXPOSITE is shown to successfully locate the active site in most instances, and is found to be more accurate than other structure-based techniques. Interestingly, in several instances, the active site does not correspond to the largest pocket. EXPOSITE is advantageous due to its high precision and paves the way for structure based prediction of active site in enzymes. PMID:28002427

The threat of climate change to freshwater pearl mussel populations.

PubMed

Hastie, Lee C; Cosgrove, Peter J; Ellis, Noranne; Gaywood, Martin J

2003-02-01

Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species.

Prediction of cloud condensation nuclei activity for organic compounds using functional group contribution methods

DOE PAGES

Petters, M. D.; Kreidenweis, S. M.; Ziemann, P. J.

2016-01-19

A wealth of recent laboratory and field experiments demonstrate that organic aerosol composition evolves with time in the atmosphere, leading to changes in the influence of the organic fraction to cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) spectra. There is a need for tools that can realistically represent the evolution of CCN activity to better predict indirect effects of organic aerosol on clouds and climate. This work describes a model to predict the CCN activity of organic compounds from functional group composition. Following previous methods in the literature, we test the ability of semi-empirical group contribution methods in Kohler theory to predict themore » effective hygroscopicity parameter, kappa. However, in our approach we also account for liquid–liquid phase boundaries to simulate phase-limited activation behavior. Model evaluation against a selected database of published laboratory measurements demonstrates that kappa can be predicted within a factor of 2. Simulation of homologous series is used to identify the relative effectiveness of different functional groups in increasing the CCN activity of weakly functionalized organic compounds. Hydroxyl, carboxyl, aldehyde, hydroperoxide, carbonyl, and ether moieties promote CCN activity while methylene and nitrate moieties inhibit CCN activity. Furthermore, the model can be incorporated into scale-bridging test beds such as the Generator of Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A) to evaluate the evolution of kappa for a complex mix of organic compounds and to develop suitable parameterizations of CCN evolution for larger-scale models.« less

Perceptual learning of degraded speech by minimizing prediction error.

PubMed

Sohoglu, Ediz; Davis, Matthew H

2016-03-22

Human perception is shaped by past experience on multiple timescales. Sudden and dramatic changes in perception occur when prior knowledge or expectations match stimulus content. These immediate effects contrast with the longer-term, more gradual improvements that are characteristic of perceptual learning. Despite extensive investigation of these two experience-dependent phenomena, there is considerable debate about whether they result from common or dissociable neural mechanisms. Here we test single- and dual-mechanism accounts of experience-dependent changes in perception using concurrent magnetoencephalographic and EEG recordings of neural responses evoked by degraded speech. When speech clarity was enhanced by prior knowledge obtained from matching text, we observed reduced neural activity in a peri-auditory region of the superior temporal gyrus (STG). Critically, longer-term improvements in the accuracy of speech recognition following perceptual learning resulted in reduced activity in a nearly identical STG region. Moreover, short-term neural changes caused by prior knowledge and longer-term neural changes arising from perceptual learning were correlated across subjects with the magnitude of learning-induced changes in recognition accuracy. These experience-dependent effects on neural processing could be dissociated from the neural effect of hearing physically clearer speech, which similarly enhanced perception but increased rather than decreased STG responses. Hence, the observed neural effects of prior knowledge and perceptual learning cannot be attributed to epiphenomenal changes in listening effort that accompany enhanced perception. Instead, our results support a predictive coding account of speech perception; computational simulations show how a single mechanism, minimization of prediction error, can drive immediate perceptual effects of prior knowledge and longer-term perceptual learning of degraded speech.

Perceptual learning of degraded speech by minimizing prediction error

PubMed Central

Sohoglu, Ediz

2016-01-01

Human perception is shaped by past experience on multiple timescales. Sudden and dramatic changes in perception occur when prior knowledge or expectations match stimulus content. These immediate effects contrast with the longer-term, more gradual improvements that are characteristic of perceptual learning. Despite extensive investigation of these two experience-dependent phenomena, there is considerable debate about whether they result from common or dissociable neural mechanisms. Here we test single- and dual-mechanism accounts of experience-dependent changes in perception using concurrent magnetoencephalographic and EEG recordings of neural responses evoked by degraded speech. When speech clarity was enhanced by prior knowledge obtained from matching text, we observed reduced neural activity in a peri-auditory region of the superior temporal gyrus (STG). Critically, longer-term improvements in the accuracy of speech recognition following perceptual learning resulted in reduced activity in a nearly identical STG region. Moreover, short-term neural changes caused by prior knowledge and longer-term neural changes arising from perceptual learning were correlated across subjects with the magnitude of learning-induced changes in recognition accuracy. These experience-dependent effects on neural processing could be dissociated from the neural effect of hearing physically clearer speech, which similarly enhanced perception but increased rather than decreased STG responses. Hence, the observed neural effects of prior knowledge and perceptual learning cannot be attributed to epiphenomenal changes in listening effort that accompany enhanced perception. Instead, our results support a predictive coding account of speech perception; computational simulations show how a single mechanism, minimization of prediction error, can drive immediate perceptual effects of prior knowledge and longer-term perceptual learning of degraded speech. PMID:26957596

Reconstructing genome-wide regulatory network of E. coli using transcriptome data and predicted transcription factor activities

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Gene regulatory networks play essential roles in living organisms to control growth, keep internal metabolism running and respond to external environmental changes. Understanding the connections and the activity levels of regulators is important for the research of gene regulatory networks. While relevance score based algorithms that reconstruct gene regulatory networks from transcriptome data can infer genome-wide gene regulatory networks, they are unfortunately prone to false positive results. Transcription factor activities (TFAs) quantitatively reflect the ability of the transcription factor to regulate target genes. However, classic relevance score based gene regulatory network reconstruction algorithms use models do not include the TFA layer, thus missing a key regulatory element. Results This work integrates TFA prediction algorithms with relevance score based network reconstruction algorithms to reconstruct gene regulatory networks with improved accuracy over classic relevance score based algorithms. This method is called Gene expression and Transcription factor activity based Relevance Network (GTRNetwork). Different combinations of TFA prediction algorithms and relevance score functions have been applied to find the most efficient combination. When the integrated GTRNetwork method was applied to E. coli data, the reconstructed genome-wide gene regulatory network predicted 381 new regulatory links. This reconstructed gene regulatory network including the predicted new regulatory links show promising biological significances. Many of the new links are verified by known TF binding site information, and many other links can be verified from the literature and databases such as EcoCyc. The reconstructed gene regulatory network is applied to a recent transcriptome analysis of E. coli during isobutanol stress. In addition to the 16 significantly changed TFAs detected in the original paper, another 7 significantly changed TFAs have been detected by using our reconstructed network. Conclusions The GTRNetwork algorithm introduces the hidden layer TFA into classic relevance score-based gene regulatory network reconstruction processes. Integrating the TFA biological information with regulatory network reconstruction algorithms significantly improves both detection of new links and reduces that rate of false positives. The application of GTRNetwork on E. coli gene transcriptome data gives a set of potential regulatory links with promising biological significance for isobutanol stress and other conditions. PMID:21668997

Secondary mediation and regression analyses of the PTClinResNet database: determining causal relationships among the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health levels for four physical therapy intervention trials.

PubMed

Mulroy, Sara J; Winstein, Carolee J; Kulig, Kornelia; Beneck, George J; Fowler, Eileen G; DeMuth, Sharon K; Sullivan, Katherine J; Brown, David A; Lane, Christianne J

2011-12-01

Each of the 4 randomized clinical trials (RCTs) hosted by the Physical Therapy Clinical Research Network (PTClinResNet) targeted a different disability group (low back disorder in the Muscle-Specific Strength Training Effectiveness After Lumbar Microdiskectomy [MUSSEL] trial, chronic spinal cord injury in the Strengthening and Optimal Movements for Painful Shoulders in Chronic Spinal Cord Injury [STOMPS] trial, adult stroke in the Strength Training Effectiveness Post-Stroke [STEPS] trial, and pediatric cerebral palsy in the Pediatric Endurance and Limb Strengthening [PEDALS] trial for children with spastic diplegic cerebral palsy) and tested the effectiveness of a muscle-specific or functional activity-based intervention on primary outcomes that captured pain (STOMPS, MUSSEL) or locomotor function (STEPS, PEDALS). The focus of these secondary analyses was to determine causal relationships among outcomes across levels of the International Classification of Functioning, Disability and Health (ICF) framework for the 4 RCTs. With the database from PTClinResNet, we used 2 separate secondary statistical approaches-mediation analysis for the MUSSEL and STOMPS trials and regression analysis for the STEPS and PEDALS trials-to test relationships among muscle performance, primary outcomes (pain related and locomotor related), activity and participation measures, and overall quality of life. Predictive models were stronger for the 2 studies with pain-related primary outcomes. Change in muscle performance mediated or predicted reductions in pain for the MUSSEL and STOMPS trials and, to some extent, walking speed for the STEPS trial. Changes in primary outcome variables were significantly related to changes in activity and participation variables for all 4 trials. Improvement in activity and participation outcomes mediated or predicted increases in overall quality of life for the 3 trials with adult populations. Variables included in the statistical models were limited to those measured in the 4 RCTs. It is possible that other variables also mediated or predicted the changes in outcomes. The relatively small sample size in the PEDALS trial limited statistical power for those analyses. Evaluating the mediators or predictors of change between each ICF level and for 2 fundamentally different outcome variables (pain versus walking) provided insights into the complexities inherent across 4 prevalent disability groups.

The left inferior parietal lobe represents stored hand-postures for object use and action prediction

PubMed Central

van Elk, Michiel

2014-01-01

Action semantics enables us to plan actions with objects and to predict others' object-directed actions as well. Previous studies have suggested that action semantics are represented in a fronto-parietal action network that has also been implicated to play a role in action observation. In the present fMRI study it was investigated how activity within this network changes as a function of the predictability of an action involving multiple objects and requiring the use of action semantics. Participants performed an action prediction task in which they were required to anticipate the use of a centrally presented object that could be moved to an associated target object (e.g., hammer—nail). The availability of actor information (i.e., presenting a hand grasping the central object) and the number of possible target objects (i.e., 0, 1, or 2 target objects) were independently manipulated, resulting in different levels of predictability. It was found that making an action prediction based on actor information resulted in an increased activation in the extrastriate body area (EBA) and the fronto-parietal action observation network (AON). Predicting actions involving a target object resulted in increased activation in the bilateral IPL and frontal motor areas. Within the AON, activity in the left inferior parietal lobe (IPL) and the left premotor cortex (PMC) increased as a function of the level of action predictability. Together these findings suggest that the left IPL represents stored hand-postures that can be used for planning object-directed actions and for predicting other's actions as well. PMID:24795681

Prefrontal EEG alpha asymmetry changes while observing disaster happening to other people: cardiac correlates and prediction of emotional impact.

PubMed

Papousek, Ilona; Weiss, Elisabeth M; Schulter, Günter; Fink, Andreas; Reiser, Eva M; Lackner, Helmut K

2014-12-01

Changes of EEG alpha asymmetry in terms of increased right versus left sided activity in prefrontal cortex are considered to index activation of the withdrawal/avoidance motivational system. The present study aimed to add evidence of the validity of individual differences in the EEG alpha asymmetry response and their relevance regarding the impact of emotional events. The magnitude of the EEG alpha asymmetry response while watching a film consisting of scenes of real injury and death correlated with components of transient cardiac responses to sudden horrifying events happening to persons in the film which index withdrawal/avoidance motivation and heightened attention and perceptual intake. Additionally, it predicted greater mood deterioration following the film and film-related intrusive memories and avoidance over the following week. The study provides further evidence for prefrontal EEG alpha asymmetry changes in response to relevant stimuli reflecting an individual's sensitivity to negative social-emotional cues encountered in everyday life. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Health literacy predicts change in physical activity self-efficacy among sedentary Latinas.

PubMed

Dominick, Gregory M; Dunsiger, Shira I; Pekmezi, Dorothy W; Marcus, Bess H

2013-06-01

Health literacy (HL) is associated with preventive health behaviors. Self-efficacy is a predictor of health behavior, including physical activity (PA); however, causal pathways between HL and self-efficacy for PA are unknown, especially among Latinas who are at risk for chronic disease. To explore this potential relationship, secondary analyses were conducted on data [Shortened Test of Functional Health Literacy in Adults (STOFHLA), PA self-efficacy, and socio-demographics] from a 6-month, randomized controlled trial of a print-based PA intervention (n = 89 Spanish-speaking Latinas). Linear regression models revealed associations between HL and baseline self-efficacy in addition to changes in self-efficacy at 6-months. After controlling for significant covariates, higher HL scores were associated with lower baseline PA self-efficacy. Regardless of treatment assignment, higher HL scores at baseline predicted greater changes in PA self-efficacy at 6-months. HL may contribute to Latinas' improved PA self-efficacy, though further research is warranted.

Physics-based enzyme design: predicting binding affinity and catalytic activity.

PubMed

Sirin, Sarah; Pearlman, David A; Sherman, Woody

2014-12-01

Computational enzyme design is an emerging field that has yielded promising success stories, but where numerous challenges remain. Accurate methods to rapidly evaluate possible enzyme design variants could provide significant value when combined with experimental efforts by reducing the number of variants needed to be synthesized and speeding the time to reach the desired endpoint of the design. To that end, extending our computational methods to model the fundamental physical-chemical principles that regulate activity in a protocol that is automated and accessible to a broad population of enzyme design researchers is essential. Here, we apply a physics-based implicit solvent MM-GBSA scoring approach to enzyme design and benchmark the computational predictions against experimentally determined activities. Specifically, we evaluate the ability of MM-GBSA to predict changes in affinity for a steroid binder protein, catalytic turnover for a Kemp eliminase, and catalytic activity for α-Gliadin peptidase variants. Using the enzyme design framework developed here, we accurately rank the most experimentally active enzyme variants, suggesting that this approach could provide enrichment of active variants in real-world enzyme design applications. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Baseline predictors of maintenance of intervention-induced changes in physical activity and sitting time among diabetic and pre-diabetic patients: a descriptive case series.

PubMed

Helmink, Judith H M; Gubbels, Jessica S; van Brussel-Visser, Femke N; de Vries, Nanne K; Kremers, Stef P J

2013-05-08

The aim of this study was to explore the predictive value of baseline characteristics in relation to changes in physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviour among diabetic and pre-diabetic patients participating in a primary care based exercise intervention. We used a descriptive case series among diabetic and pre-diabetic patients (n = 119, 50.8% male, mean age 65.5 (SD = 7.8)). Measurements took place with questionnaires at baseline and two years after the start of the intervention. Predictor variables included demographic factors, Body Mass Index, baseline PA and sitting time, and baseline socio-cognitive profile. At follow-up, respondents spent more time being physically active than at baseline. For the total group, the average sitting time remained almost unchanged between the two measurements. Further exploration showed that respondents who had relatively high levels of PA at the start of the intervention, increased their total sitting time, while respondents with relatively low levels of PA at the start decreased their sitting time. The socio-cognitive profile did not predict behaviour change. The intervention appeared to be suitable for people with a low-education level, but the results should be interpreted in view of the limitations of the study such as the non-controlled design, self-reported outcomes and selective drop-out of participants. Interventions for this specific target group may need to put more emphasis on the prevention of increased sitting time. The finding that the socio-cognitive profile did not predict behaviour change may underline the proposition that decisions to initiate and maintain PA behaviour change are to a large extend non-linear events. Acknowledging the possible non-linearity of the relationship between socio-cognitive determinants and behaviour change will help our understanding of this complex and dynamic process.

Hydrological Response to Land Cover Changes and Human Activities in Arid Regions Using a Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing

PubMed Central

Mahmoud, Shereif H.; Alazba, A. A.

2015-01-01

The hydrological response to land cover changes induced by human activities in arid regions has attracted increased research interest in recent decades. The study reported herein assessed the spatial and quantitative changes in surface runoff resulting from land cover change in the Al-Baha region of Saudi Arabia between 1990 and 2000 using an ArcGIS-surface runoff model and predicted land cover and surface runoff depth in 2030 using Markov chain analysis. Land cover maps for 1990 and 2000 were derived from satellite images using ArcGIS 10.1. The findings reveal a 26% decrease in forest and shrubland area, 28% increase in irrigated cropland, 1.5% increase in sparsely vegetated land and 0.5% increase in bare soil between 1990 and 2000. Overall, land cover changes resulted in a significant decrease in runoff depth values in most of the region. The decrease in surface runoff depth ranged from 25-106 mm/year in a 7020-km2 area, whereas the increase in such depth reached only 10 mm/year in a 243-km2 area. A maximum increase of 73 mm/year was seen in a limited area. The surface runoff depth decreased to the greatest extent in the central region of the study area due to the huge transition in land cover classes associated with the construction of 25 rainwater harvesting dams. The land cover prediction revealed a greater than twofold increase in irrigated cropland during the 2000-2030 period, whereas forest and shrubland are anticipated to occupy just 225 km2 of land area by 2030, a significant decrease from the 747 km2 they occupied in 2000. Overall, changes in land cover are predicted to result in an annual increase in irrigated cropland and dramatic decline in forest area in the study area over the next few decades. The increase in surface runoff depth is likely to have significant implications for irrigation activities. PMID:25923712

A new model for force generation by skeletal muscle, incorporating work-dependent deactivation

PubMed Central

Williams, Thelma L.

2010-01-01

A model is developed to predict the force generated by active skeletal muscle when subjected to imposed patterns of lengthening and shortening, such as those that occur during normal movements. The model is based on data from isolated lamprey muscle and can predict the forces developed during swimming. The model consists of a set of ordinary differential equations, which are solved numerically. The model's first part is a simplified description of the kinetics of Ca2+ release from sarcoplasmic reticulum and binding to muscle protein filaments, in response to neural activation. The second part is based on A. V. Hill's mechanical model of muscle, consisting of elastic and contractile elements in series, the latter obeying known physiological properties. The parameters of the model are determined by fitting the appropriate mathematical solutions to data recorded from isolated lamprey muscle activated under conditions of constant length or rate of change of length. The model is then used to predict the forces developed under conditions of applied sinusoidal length changes, and the results compared with corresponding data. The most significant advance of this model is the incorporation of work-dependent deactivation, whereby a muscle that has been shortening under load generates less force after the shortening ceases than otherwise expected. In addition, the stiffness in this model is not constant but increases with increasing activation. The model yields a closer prediction to data than has been obtained before, and can thus prove an important component of investigations of the neural—mechanical—environmental interactions that occur during natural movements. PMID:20118315

Creating collaboration opportunities for marine research across the Arctic: The SEARCH-ACCESS partnership and an emerging sea ice prediction research network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eicken, H.; Bitz, C. M.; Gascard, J.; Kaminski, T.; Karcher, M. J.; Kauker, F.; Overland, J. E.; Stroeve, J. C.; Wiggins, H. V.

2013-12-01

Rapid Arctic environmental and socio-economic change presents major challenges and opportunities to Arctic residents, government agencies and the private sector. The Arctic Ocean and its ice cover, in particular, are in the midst of transformative change, ranging from declines in sea-ice thickness and summer ice extent to threats to coastal communities and increases in maritime traffic and offshore resource development. The US interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH) and the European Arctic Climate Change, Economy and Society (ACCESS) project are addressing both scientific research needs and stakeholder information priorities to improve understanding and responses to Arctic change. Capacity building, coordination and integration of activities at the international level and across sectors and stakeholder groups are major challenges that have to be met. ACCESS and SEARCH build on long-standing collaborations with a focus on environmental change in the Arctic ocean-ice-atmosphere system and the most pressing research needs to inform marine policy, resource management and threats to Arctic coastal communities. To illustrate the approach, key results and major conclusions from this international coordination and collaboration effort, we focus on a nascent sea-ice prediction research network. This activity builds on the Arctic Sea Ice Outlook that was initiated by SEARCH and the European DAMOCLES project (a precursor to ACCESS) and has now grown into an international community of practice that synthesizes, evaluates and discusses sea-ice predictions on seasonal to interannual scales. Key goals of the effort which is now entering into a new phase include the comparative evaluation of different prediction approaches, including the combination of different techniques, the compilation of reference datasets and model output, guidance on the design and implementation of observing system efforts to improve predictions and information transfer into private industry and the broader public. The latter relies on informal focus groups convened by ACCESS that help identify stakeholder priorities and provide feedback on science and policy documents resulting from this work. Most important, the research network effort explores the nature and ramifications of sea ice in an ice-diminished Arctic.

Changes in Career Intent during Initial Tour of Active Duty.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shenk, Faye

The study was designed to determine the predictability of an Air Force officer's career decision and to evaluate relationships between career decision and various demographic, environmental, and attitudinal factors. Information on this group was compiled for the period before commissioning and through five years of active duty. The report presents…

Potential changes in forest composition could reduce impacts of climate change on boreal wildfires.

PubMed

Terrier, Aurélie; Girardin, Martin P; Périé, Catherine; Legendre, Pierre; Bergeron, Yves

2013-01-01

There is general consensus that wildfires in boreal forests will increase throughout this century in response to more severe and frequent drought conditions induced by climate change. However, prediction models generally assume that the vegetation component will remain static over the next few decades. As deciduous species are less flammable than conifer species, it is reasonable to believe that a potential expansion of deciduous species in boreal forests, either occurring naturally or through landscape management, could offset some of the impacts of climate change on the occurrence of boreal wildfires. The objective of this study was to determine the potential of this offsetting effect through a simulation experiment conducted in eastern boreal North America. Predictions of future fire activity were made using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) with fire behavior indices and ecological niche models as predictor variables so as to take into account the effects of changing climate and tree distribution on fire activity. A regional climate model (RCM) was used for predictions of future fire risk conditions. The experiment was conducted under two tree dispersal scenarios: the status quo scenario, in which the distribution of forest types does not differ from the present one, and the unlimited dispersal scenario, which allows forest types to expand their range to fully occupy their climatic niche. Our results show that future warming will create climate conditions that are more prone to fire occurrence. However, unlimited dispersal of southern restricted deciduous species could reduce the impact of climate change on future fire occurrence. Hence, the use of deciduous species could be a good option for an efficient strategic fire mitigation strategy aimed at reducing fire Propagation in coniferous landscapes and increasing public safety in remote populated areas of eastern boreal Canada under climate change.

Changes in predictive cuing modulate the hemispheric distribution of the P1 inhibitory response to attentional targets.

PubMed

Lasaponara, Stefano; D' Onofrio, Marianna; Dragone, Alessio; Pinto, Mario; Caratelli, Ludovica; Doricchi, Fabrizio

2017-05-01

Brain activity related to orienting of attention with spatial cues and brain responses to attentional targets are influenced the probabilistic contingency between cues and targets. Compared to predictive cues, cues predicting at chance the location of targets reduce the filtering out of uncued locations and the costs in reorienting attention to targets presented at these locations. Slagter et al. (2016) have recently suggested that the larger target related P1 component that is found in the hemisphere ipsilateral to validly cued targets reflects stimulus-driven inhibition in the processing of the unstimulated side of space contralateral to the same hemisphere. Here we verified whether the strength of this inhibition and the amplitude of the corresponding P1 wave are modulated by the probabilistic link between cues and targets. Healthy participants performed a task of endogenous orienting once with predictive and once with non-predictive directional cues. In the non-predictive condition we observed a drop in the amplitude of the P1 ipsilateral to the target and in the costs of reorienting. No change in the inter-hemispheric latencies of the P1 was found between the two predictive conditions. The N1 facilitatory component was unaffected by predictive cuing. These results show that the predictive context modulates the strength of the inhibitory P1 response and that this modulation is not matched with changes in the inter-hemispheric interaction between the P1 generators of the two hemispheres. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Radicals and Reservoirs in the GMI Chemistry and Transport Model: Comparison to Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Anne R.; Stolarski, Richard S.; Strahan, Susan E.; Connell, Peter S.

2004-01-01

The most important use of atmospheric chemistry and transport models is to predict the future composition of the atmosphere. The amounts of gases like chlorofluorcarbons, methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane are changing and the stratospheric ozone layer will change because these gases are changing. Methyl bromide, nitrous oxide and methane all have natural sources, and also change because of human activity. Chlorofluorcarbons are man-made gases; these are known to decrease stratospheric ozone and future production is banned. They are long-lived gases, and many decades will pass before they are insignificant in the atmosphere. The models are used to predict changes in ozone and other gases; this is a straightforward application. The models must be also tested using observations for the present day atmosphere. This is a challenging task, because the model contains more than 50 species and more than 150 chemical reactions. Data from satellites, ground stations, aircraft and balloons are used to evaluate the model. Different models that are used in international assessments produce different results; in the most recent assessment some predict that ozone will return to 1980 levels by 2025 and others predict that this will not happen until 2050. Since all the parts of the models are conceptually the same, there must be differences in implementation that produce these differences, This work takes a single model, two different sets of winds and temperatures, and repeats the same prediction for the future. Here we compare the results for these two simulations with many observations. The purpose is to identify differences in the model results for the present atmosphere that will lead to different predictions. This sort of controlled comparison will reduce uncertainty in the predictions for stratospheric ozone.

Surface tension prevails over solute effect in organic-influenced cloud droplet activation.

PubMed

Ovadnevaite, Jurgita; Zuend, Andreas; Laaksonen, Ari; Sanchez, Kevin J; Roberts, Greg; Ceburnis, Darius; Decesari, Stefano; Rinaldi, Matteo; Hodas, Natasha; Facchini, Maria Cristina; Seinfeld, John H; O' Dowd, Colin

2017-06-29

The spontaneous growth of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) into cloud droplets under supersaturated water vapour conditions is described by classic Köhler theory. This spontaneous activation of CCN depends on the interplay between the Raoult effect, whereby activation potential increases with decreasing water activity or increasing solute concentration, and the Kelvin effect, whereby activation potential decreases with decreasing droplet size or increases with decreasing surface tension, which is sensitive to surfactants. Surface tension lowering caused by organic surfactants, which diminishes the Kelvin effect, is expected to be negated by a concomitant reduction in the Raoult effect, driven by the displacement of surfactant molecules from the droplet bulk to the droplet-vapour interface. Here we present observational and theoretical evidence illustrating that, in ambient air, surface tension lowering can prevail over the reduction in the Raoult effect, leading to substantial increases in cloud droplet concentrations. We suggest that consideration of liquid-liquid phase separation, leading to complete or partial engulfing of a hygroscopic particle core by a hydrophobic organic-rich phase, can explain the lack of concomitant reduction of the Raoult effect, while maintaining substantial lowering of surface tension, even for partial surface coverage. Apart from the importance of particle size and composition in droplet activation, we show by observation and modelling that incorporation of phase-separation effects into activation thermodynamics can lead to a CCN number concentration that is up to ten times what is predicted by climate models, changing the properties of clouds. An adequate representation of the CCN activation process is essential to the prediction of clouds in climate models, and given the effect of clouds on the Earth's energy balance, improved prediction of aerosol-cloud-climate interactions is likely to result in improved assessments of future climate change.

Structure prediction and activity analysis of human heme oxygenase-1 and its mutant.

PubMed

Xia, Zhen-Wei; Zhou, Wen-Pu; Cui, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Shen, Qing-Xiang; Li, Yun-Zhu; Yu, Shan-Chang

2004-08-15

To predict wild human heme oxygenase-1 (whHO-1) and hHO-1 His25Ala mutant (delta hHO-1) structures, to clone and express them and analyze their activities. Swiss-PdbViewer and Antheprot 5.0 were used for the prediction of structure diversity and physical-chemical changes between wild and mutant hHO-1. hHO-1 His25Ala mutant cDNA was constructed by site-directed mutagenesis in two plasmids of E. coli DH5alpha. Expression products were purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and Q-Sepharose Fast Flow column chromatography, and their activities were measured. rHO-1 had the structure of a helical fold with the heme sandwiched between heme-heme oxygenase-1 helices. Bond angle, dihedral angle and chemical bond in the active pocket changed after Ala25 was replaced by His25, but Ala25 was still contacting the surface and the electrostatic potential of the active pocket was negative. The mutated enzyme kept binding activity to heme. Two vectors pBHO-1 and pBHO-1(M) were constructed and expressed. Ammonium sulphate precipitation and column chromatography yielded 3.6-fold and 30-fold higher purities of whHO-1, respectively. The activity of delta hHO-1 was reduced 91.21% after mutation compared with whHO-1. Proximal His25 ligand is crucial for normal hHO-1 catalytic activity. delta hHO-1 is deactivated by mutation but keeps the same binding site as whHO-1. delta hHO-1 might be a potential inhibitor of whHO-1 for preventing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia.

Structure prediction and activity analysis of human heme oxygenase-1 and its mutant

PubMed Central

Xia, Zhen-Wei; Zhou, Wen-Pu; Cui, Wen-Jun; Zhang, Xue-Hong; Shen, Qing-Xiang; Li, Yun-Zhu; Yu, Shan-Chang

2004-01-01

AIM: To predict wild human heme oxygenase-1 (whHO-1) and hHO-1 His25Ala mutant (△hHO-1) structures, to clone and express them and analyze their activities. METHODS: Swiss-PdbViewer and Antheprot 5.0 were used for the prediction of structure diversity and physical-chemical changes between wild and mutant hHO-1. hHO-1 His25Ala mutant cDNA was constructed by site-directed mutagenesis in two plasmids of E. coli DH5α . Expression products were purified by ammonium sulphate precipitation and Q-Sepharose Fast Flow column chromatography, and their activities were measured. RESULTS: rHO-1 had the structure of a helical fold with the heme sandwiched between heme-heme oxygenase-1 helices. Bond angle, dihedral angle and chemical bond in the active pocket changed after Ala25 was replaced by His25, but Ala25 was still contacting the surface and the electrostatic potential of the active pocket was negative. The mutated enzyme kept binding activity to heme. Two vectors pBHO-1 and pBHO-1(M) were constructed and expressed. Ammonium sulphate precipitation and column chromatography yielded 3.6-fold and 30-fold higher purities of whHO-1, respectively. The activity of △hHO-1 was reduced 91.21% after mutation compared with whHO-1. CONCLUSION: Proximal His25 ligand is crucial for normal hHO-1 catalytic activity. △hHO-1 is deactivated by mutation but keeps the same binding site as whHO-1. △hHO-1 might be a potential inhibitor of whHO-1 for preventing neonatal hyperbilirubinemia. PMID:15285018

Gender and Facebook motives as predictors of specific types of Facebook use: A latent growth curve analysis in adolescence.

PubMed

Frison, Eline; Eggermont, Steven

2016-10-01

Despite increasing evidence that specific types of Facebook use (i.e., active private, active public, and passive Facebook use) are differently related to adolescents' well-being, little is known how these types function over the course of adolescence and whether gender and Facebook motives may predict the initial level and changes in these types over time. To address these gaps, Flemish adolescents (ages 12-19) were questioned at three different time points, with six months in between (NTime1 = 1866). Latent growth curve models revealed that active private Facebook use increased over the course of adolescence, whereas public Facebook use decreased. Passive Facebook use, however, remained stable. In addition, gender and Facebook motives were related to initial levels of specific types of Facebook use, and predictive of dynamic change in specific types of Facebook use over time. The discussion focuses on the understanding and implications of these findings. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Functionally dissociable influences on learning rate in a dynamic environment

PubMed Central

McGuire, Joseph T.; Nassar, Matthew R.; Gold, Joshua I.; Kable, Joseph W.

2015-01-01

Summary Maintaining accurate beliefs in a changing environment requires dynamically adapting the rate at which one learns from new experiences. Beliefs should be stable in the face of noisy data, but malleable in periods of change or uncertainty. Here we used computational modeling, psychophysics and fMRI to show that adaptive learning is not a unitary phenomenon in the brain. Rather, it can be decomposed into three computationally and neuroanatomically distinct factors that were evident in human subjects performing a spatial-prediction task: (1) surprise-driven belief updating, related to BOLD activity in visual cortex; (2) uncertainty-driven belief updating, related to anterior prefrontal and parietal activity; and (3) reward-driven belief updating, a context-inappropriate behavioral tendency related to activity in ventral striatum. These distinct factors converged in a core system governing adaptive learning. This system, which included dorsomedial frontal cortex, responded to all three factors and predicted belief updating both across trials and across individuals. PMID:25459409

Using NASA Satellite Observations to Map Wildfire Risk in the United States for Allocation of Fire Management Resources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farahmand, A.; Reager, J. T., II; Behrangi, A.; Stavros, E. N.; Randerson, J. T.

2017-12-01

Fires are a key disturbance globally acting as a catalyst for terrestrial ecosystem change and contributing significantly to both carbon emissions and changes in surface albedo. The socioeconomic impacts of wildfire activities are also significant with wildfire activity results in billions of dollars of losses every year. Fire size, area burned and frequency are increasing, thus the likelihood of fire danger, defined by United States National Interagency Fire Center (NFIC) as the demand of fire management resources as a function of how flammable fuels (a function of ignitability, consumability and availability) are from normal, is an important step toward reducing costs associated with wildfires. Numerous studies have aimed to predict the likelihood of fire danger, but few studies use remote sensing data to map fire danger at scales commensurate with regional management decisions (e.g., deployment of resources nationally throughout fire season with seasonal and monthly prediction). Here, we use NASA Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) assimilated surface soil moisture, NASA Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) vapor pressure deficit, NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) enhanced vegetation index products and landcover products, along with US Forest Service historical fire activity data to generate probabilistic monthly fire potential maps in the United States. These maps can be useful in not only government operational allocation of fire management resources, but also improving understanding of the Earth System and how it is changing in order to refine predictions of fire extremes.

Determining environmental causes of biological effects: the need for a mechanistic physiological dimension in conservation biology.

PubMed

Seebacher, Frank; Franklin, Craig E

2012-06-19

The emerging field of Conservation Physiology links environmental change and ecological success by the application of physiological theory, approaches and tools to elucidate and address conservation problems. Human activity has changed the natural environment to a point where the viability of many ecosystems is now under threat. There are already many descriptions of how changes in biological patterns are correlated with environmental changes. The next important step is to determine the causative relationship between environmental variability and biological systems. Physiology provides the mechanistic link between environmental change and ecological patterns. Physiological research, therefore, should be integrated into conservation to predict the biological consequences of human activity, and to identify those species or populations that are most vulnerable.

Impact of Land Use Management and Soil Properties on Denitrifier Communities of Namibian Savannas.

PubMed

Braker, Gesche; Matthies, Diethart; Hannig, Michael; Brandt, Franziska Barbara; Brenzinger, Kristof; Gröngröft, Alexander

2015-11-01

We studied potential denitrification activity and the underlying denitrifier communities in soils from a semiarid savanna ecosystem of the Kavango region in NE Namibia to help in predicting future changes in N(2)O emissions due to continuing changes of land use in this region. Soil type and land use (pristine, fallow, and cultivated soils) influenced physicochemical characteristics of the soils that are relevant to denitrification activity and N(2)O fluxes from soils and affected potential denitrification activity. Potential denitrification activity was assessed by using the denitrifier enzyme activity (DEA) assay as a proxy for denitrification activity in the soil. Soil type and land use influenced C and N contents of the soils. Pristine soils that had never been cultivated had a particularly high C content. Cultivation reduced soil C content and the abundance of denitrifiers and changed the composition of the denitrifier communities. DEA was strongly and positively correlated with soil C content and was higher in pristine than in fallow or recently cultivated soils. Soil type and the composition of both the nirK- and nirS-type denitrifier communities also influenced DEA. In contrast, other soil characteristics like N content, C:N ratio, and pH did not predict DEA. These findings suggest that due to greater availability of soil organic matter, and hence a more effective N cycling, the natural semiarid grasslands emit more N(2)O than managed lands in Namibia.

Status and future transition of rapid urbanizing landscape in central Western Ghats - CA based approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bharath, S..; Rajan, K. S.; Ramachandra, T. V.

2014-11-01

The land use changes in forested landscape are highly complex and dynamic, affected by the natural, socio-economic, cultural, political and other factors. The remote sensing (RS) and geographical information system (GIS) techniques coupled with multi-criteria evaluation functions such as Markov-cellular automata (CA-Markov) model helps in analysing intensity, extent and future forecasting of human activities affecting the terrestrial biosphere. Karwar taluk of Central Western Ghats in Karnataka state, India has seen rapid transitions in its forest cover due to various anthropogenic activities, primarily driven by major industrial activities. A study based on Landsat and IRS derived data along with CA-Markov method has helped in characterizing the patterns and trends of land use changes over a period of 2004-2013, expected transitions was predicted for a set of scenarios through 2013-2022. The analysis reveals the loss of pristine forest cover from 75.51% to 67.36% (1973 to 2013) and increase in agriculture land as well as built-up area of 8.65% (2013), causing impact on local flora and fauna. The other factors driving these changes are the aggregated level of demand for land, local and regional effects of land use activities such as deforestation, improper practices in expansion of agriculture and infrastructure development, deteriorating natural resources availability. The spatio temporal models helped in visualizing on-going changes apart from prediction of likely changes. The CA-Markov based analysis provides us insights into the localized changes impacting these regions and can be useful in developing appropriate mitigation management approaches based on the modelled future impacts. This necessitates immediate measures for minimizing the future impacts.

Earthquake chemical precursors in groundwater: a review

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paudel, Shukra Raj; Banjara, Sushant Prasad; Wagle, Amrita; Freund, Friedemann T.

2018-03-01

We review changes in groundwater chemistry as precursory signs for earthquakes. In particular, we discuss pH, total dissolved solids (TDS), electrical conductivity, and dissolved gases in relation to their significance for earthquake prediction or forecasting. These parameters are widely believed to vary in response to seismic and pre-seismic activity. However, the same parameters also vary in response to non-seismic processes. The inability to reliably distinguish between changes caused by seismic or pre-seismic activities from changes caused by non-seismic activities has impeded progress in earthquake science. Short-term earthquake prediction is unlikely to be achieved, however, by pH, TDS, electrical conductivity, and dissolved gas measurements alone. On the other hand, the production of free hydroxyl radicals (•OH), subsequent reactions such as formation of H2O2 and oxidation of As(III) to As(V) in groundwater, have distinctive precursory characteristics. This study deviates from the prevailing mechanical mantra. It addresses earthquake-related non-seismic mechanisms, but focused on the stress-induced electrification of rocks, the generation of positive hole charge carriers and their long-distance propagation through the rock column, plus on electrochemical processes at the rock-water interface.

Brain activation during anticipation of sound sequences.

PubMed

Leaver, Amber M; Van Lare, Jennifer; Zielinski, Brandon; Halpern, Andrea R; Rauschecker, Josef P

2009-02-25

Music consists of sound sequences that require integration over time. As we become familiar with music, associations between notes, melodies, and entire symphonic movements become stronger and more complex. These associations can become so tight that, for example, hearing the end of one album track can elicit a robust image of the upcoming track while anticipating it in total silence. Here, we study this predictive "anticipatory imagery" at various stages throughout learning and investigate activity changes in corresponding neural structures using functional magnetic resonance imaging. Anticipatory imagery (in silence) for highly familiar naturalistic music was accompanied by pronounced activity in rostral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and premotor areas. Examining changes in the neural bases of anticipatory imagery during two stages of learning conditional associations between simple melodies, however, demonstrates the importance of fronto-striatal connections, consistent with a role of the basal ganglia in "training" frontal cortex (Pasupathy and Miller, 2005). Another striking change in neural resources during learning was a shift between caudal PFC earlier to rostral PFC later in learning. Our findings regarding musical anticipation and sound sequence learning are highly compatible with studies of motor sequence learning, suggesting common predictive mechanisms in both domains.

Brain Activation During Anticipation of Sound Sequences

PubMed Central

Leaver, Amber M.; Van Lare, Jennifer; Zielinski, Brandon; Halpern, Andrea R.; Rauschecker, Josef P.

2010-01-01

Music consists of sound sequences that require integration over time. As we become familiar with music, associations between notes, melodies, and entire symphonic movements become stronger and more complex. These associations can become so tight that, for example, hearing the end of one album track can elicit a robust image of the upcoming track while anticipating it in total silence. Here we study this predictive “anticipatory imagery” at various stages throughout learning and investigate activity changes in corresponding neural structures using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Anticipatory imagery (in silence) for highly familiar naturalistic music was accompanied by pronounced activity in rostral prefrontal cortex (PFC) and premotor areas. Examining changes in the neural bases of anticipatory imagery during two stages of learning conditional associations between simple melodies, however, demonstrates the importance of fronto-striatal connections, consistent with a role of the basal ganglia in “training” frontal cortex (Pasupathy and Miller, 2005). Another striking change in neural resources during learning was a shift between caudal PFC earlier to rostral PFC later in learning. Our findings regarding musical anticipation and sound sequence learning are highly compatible with studies of motor sequence learning, suggesting common predictive mechanisms in both domains. PMID:19244522

Using the Change Manager Model for the Hippocampal System to Predict Connectivity and Neurophysiological Parameters in the Perirhinal Cortex

PubMed Central

Coward, L. Andrew; Gedeon, Tamas D.

2016-01-01

Theoretical arguments demonstrate that practical considerations, including the needs to limit physiological resources and to learn without interference with prior learning, severely constrain the anatomical architecture of the brain. These arguments identify the hippocampal system as the change manager for the cortex, with the role of selecting the most appropriate locations for cortical receptive field changes at each point in time and driving those changes. This role results in the hippocampal system recording the identities of groups of cortical receptive fields that changed at the same time. These types of records can also be used to reactivate the receptive fields active during individual unique past events, providing mechanisms for episodic memory retrieval. Our theoretical arguments identify the perirhinal cortex as one important focal point both for driving changes and for recording and retrieving episodic memories. The retrieval of episodic memories must not drive unnecessary receptive field changes, and this consideration places strong constraints on neuron properties and connectivity within and between the perirhinal cortex and regular cortex. Hence the model predicts a number of such properties and connectivity. Experimental test of these falsifiable predictions would clarify how change is managed in the cortex and how episodic memories are retrieved. PMID:26819594

Activity Patterns in Response to Symptoms in Patients Being Treated for Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: An Experience Sampling Methodology Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Objective: Cognitive–behavioral models of chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) propose that patients respond to symptoms with 2 predominant activity patterns—activity limitation and all-or-nothing behaviors—both of which may contribute to illness persistence. The current study investigated whether activity patterns occurred at the same time as, or followed on from, patient symptom experience and affect. Method: Twenty-three adults with CFS were recruited from U.K. CFS services. Experience sampling methodology (ESM) was used to assess fluctuations in patient symptom experience, affect, and activity management patterns over 10 assessments per day for a total of 6 days. Assessments were conducted within patients’ daily life and were delivered through an app on touchscreen Android mobile phones. Multilevel model analyses were conducted to examine the role of self-reported patient fatigue, pain, and affect as predictors of change in activity patterns at the same and subsequent assessment. Results: Current experience of fatigue-related symptoms and pain predicted higher patient activity limitation at the current and subsequent assessments whereas subjective wellness predicted higher all-or-nothing behavior at both times. Current pain predicted less all-or-nothing behavior at the subsequent assessment. In contrast to hypotheses, current positive affect was predictive of current activity limitation whereas current negative affect was predictive of current all-or-nothing behavior. Both activity patterns varied at the momentary level. Conclusions: Patient symptom experiences appear to be driving patient activity management patterns in line with the cognitive–behavioral model of CFS. ESM offers a useful method for examining multiple interacting variables within the context of patients’ daily life. PMID:27819461

Fundamental movement skills and physical fitness as predictors of physical activity: A 6-year follow-up study.

PubMed

Jaakkola, T; Yli-Piipari, S; Huotari, P; Watt, A; Liukkonen, J

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the extent to which fundamental movement skills and physical fitness scores assessed in early adolescence predict self-reported physical activity assessed 6 years later. The sample comprised 333 (200 girls, 133 boys; M age = 12.41) students. The effects of previous physical activity, sex, and body mass index (BMI) were controlled in the main analyses. Adolescents' fundamental movement skills, physical fitness, self-report physical activity, and BMI were collected at baseline, and their self-report energy expenditure (metabolic equivalents: METs) and intensity of physical activity were collected using the International Physical Activity Questionnaire 6 years later. Results showed that fundamental movement skills predicted METs, light, moderate, and vigorous intensity physical activity levels, whereas fitness predicted METs, moderate, and vigorous physical activity levels. Hierarchical regression analyses also showed that after controlling for previous levels of physical activity, sex, and BMI, the size of the effect of fundamental movement skills and physical fitness on energy expenditure and physical activity intensity was moderate (R(2) change between 0.06 and 0.15), with the effect being stronger for high intensity physical activity. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting events in the development of a coal surface mine in the west

Treesearch

Lynn M. Ferrante; Edward C. Thor

1980-01-01

Sudden changes in the level of coal mining activity in an area can cause immediate and profound changes in every facet of life in a rural community. Local officials and administrators of Federal and State governments often bear the brunt of responding to the disruptions that result from these changes. The nature of coal mining in the West is such that the community in...

Past climate variability and change in the Arctic and at high latitudes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Alley, Richard B.; Brigham-Grette, Julie; Miller, Gifford H.; Polyak, Leonid; ,; ,; ,

2009-01-01

Paleoclimate records play a key role in our understanding of Earth's past and present climate system and in our confidence in predicting future climate changes. Paleoclimate data help to elucidate past and present active mechanisms of climate change by placing the short instrumental record into a longer term context and by permitting models to be tested beyond the limited time that instrumental measurements have been available.

A multi-model framework for simulating wildlife population response to land-use and climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

McRae, B.H.; Schumaker, N.H.; McKane, R.B.; Busing, R.T.; Solomon, A.M.; Burdick, C.A.

2008-01-01

Reliable assessments of how human activities will affect wildlife populations are essential for making scientifically defensible resource management decisions. A principle challenge of predicting effects of proposed management, development, or conservation actions is the need to incorporate multiple biotic and abiotic factors, including land-use and climate change, that interact to affect wildlife habitat and populations through time. Here we demonstrate how models of land-use, climate change, and other dynamic factors can be integrated into a coherent framework for predicting wildlife population trends. Our framework starts with land-use and climate change models developed for a region of interest. Vegetation changes through time under alternative future scenarios are predicted using an individual-based plant community model. These predictions are combined with spatially explicit animal habitat models to map changes in the distribution and quality of wildlife habitat expected under the various scenarios. Animal population responses to habitat changes and other factors are then projected using a flexible, individual-based animal population model. As an example application, we simulated animal population trends under three future land-use scenarios and four climate change scenarios in the Cascade Range of western Oregon. We chose two birds with contrasting habitat preferences for our simulations: winter wrens (Troglodytes troglodytes), which are most abundant in mature conifer forests, and song sparrows (Melospiza melodia), which prefer more open, shrubby habitats. We used climate and land-use predictions from previously published studies, as well as previously published predictions of vegetation responses using FORCLIM, an individual-based forest dynamics simulator. Vegetation predictions were integrated with other factors in PATCH, a spatially explicit, individual-based animal population simulator. Through incorporating effects of landscape history and limited dispersal, our framework predicted population changes that typically exceeded those expected based on changes in mean habitat suitability alone. Although land-use had greater impacts on habitat quality than did climate change in our simulations, we found that small changes in vital rates resulting from climate change or other stressors can have large consequences for population trajectories. The ability to integrate bottom-up demographic processes like these with top-down constraints imposed by climate and land-use in a dynamic modeling environment is a key advantage of our approach. The resulting framework should allow researchers to synthesize existing empirical evidence, and to explore complex interactions that are difficult or impossible to capture through piecemeal modeling approaches. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

The Theory of Planned Behavior within the Stages of the Transtheoretical Model: Latent Structural Modeling of Stage-Specific Prediction Patterns in Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lippke, Sonia; Nigg, Claudio R.; Maddock, Jay E.

2007-01-01

This is the first study to test whether the stages of change of the transtheoretical model are qualitatively different through exploring discontinuity patterns in theory of planned behavior (TPB) variables using latent multigroup structural equation modeling (MSEM) with AMOS. Discontinuity patterns in terms of latent means and prediction patterns…

Machine-learning-based calving prediction from activity, lying, and ruminating behaviors in dairy cattle.

PubMed

Borchers, M R; Chang, Y M; Proudfoot, K L; Wadsworth, B A; Stone, A E; Bewley, J M

2017-07-01

The objective of this study was to use automated activity, lying, and rumination monitors to characterize prepartum behavior and predict calving in dairy cattle. Data were collected from 20 primiparous and 33 multiparous Holstein dairy cattle from September 2011 to May 2013 at the University of Kentucky Coldstream Dairy. The HR Tag (SCR Engineers Ltd., Netanya, Israel) automatically collected neck activity and rumination data in 2-h increments. The IceQube (IceRobotics Ltd., South Queensferry, United Kingdom) automatically collected number of steps, lying time, standing time, number of transitions from standing to lying (lying bouts), and total motion, summed in 15-min increments. IceQube data were summed in 2-h increments to match HR Tag data. All behavioral data were collected for 14 d before the predicted calving date. Retrospective data analysis was performed using mixed linear models to examine behavioral changes by day in the 14 d before calving. Bihourly behavioral differences from baseline values over the 14 d before calving were also evaluated using mixed linear models. Changes in daily rumination time, total motion, lying time, and lying bouts occurred in the 14 d before calving. In the bihourly analysis, extreme values for all behaviors occurred in the final 24 h, indicating that the monitored behaviors may be useful in calving prediction. To determine whether technologies were useful at predicting calving, random forest, linear discriminant analysis, and neural network machine-learning techniques were constructed and implemented using R version 3.1.0 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria). These methods were used on variables from each technology and all combined variables from both technologies. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies at the daily level yielded 100.0% sensitivity and 86.8% specificity. A neural network analysis that combined variables from both technologies in bihourly increments was used to identify 2-h periods in the 8 h before calving with 82.8% sensitivity and 80.4% specificity. Changes in behavior and machine-learning alerts indicate that commercially marketed behavioral monitors may have calving prediction potential. Copyright © 2017 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using Smartphones to Monitor Bipolar Disorder Symptoms: A Pilot Study.

PubMed

Beiwinkel, Till; Kindermann, Sally; Maier, Andreas; Kerl, Christopher; Moock, Jörn; Barbian, Guido; Rössler, Wulf

2016-01-06

Relapse prevention in bipolar disorder can be improved by monitoring symptoms in patients' daily life. Smartphone apps are easy-to-use, low-cost tools that can be used to assess this information. To date, few studies have examined the usefulness of smartphone data for monitoring symptoms in bipolar disorder. We present results from a pilot test of a smartphone-based monitoring system, Social Information Monitoring for Patients with Bipolar Affective Disorder (SIMBA), that tracked daily mood, physical activity, and social communication in 13 patients. The objective of this study was to investigate whether smartphone measurements predicted clinical symptoms levels and clinical symptom change. The hypotheses that smartphone measurements are (1) negatively related to clinical depressive symptoms and (2) positively related to clinical manic symptoms were tested. Clinical rating scales were administered to assess clinical depressive and manic symptoms. Patients used a smartphone with the monitoring app for up to 12 months. Random-coefficient multilevel models were computed to analyze the relationship between smartphone data and externally rated manic and depressive symptoms. Overall clinical symptom levels and clinical symptom changes were predicted by separating between-patient and within-patient effects. Using established clinical thresholds from the literature, marginal effect plots displayed clinical relevance of smartphone data. Overall symptom levels and change in clinical symptoms were related to smartphone measures. Higher overall levels of clinical depressive symptoms were predicted by lower self-reported mood measured by the smartphone (beta=-.56, P<.001). An increase in clinical depressive symptoms was predicted by a decline in social communication (ie, outgoing text messages: beta=-.28, P<.001) and a decline in physical activity as measured by the smartphone (ie, cell tower movements: beta=-.11, P=.03). Higher overall levels of clinical manic symptoms were predicted by lower physical activity on the smartphone (ie, distance travelled: beta=-.37, P<.001), and higher social communication (beta=.48, P=.03). An increase in clinical manic symptoms was predicted by a decrease in physical activity on the smartphone (beta=-.17, P<.001). Clinical symptoms were related to some objective and subjective smartphone measurements, but not all smartphone measures predicted the occurrence of bipolar symptoms above clinical thresholds. Thus, smartphones have the potential to monitor bipolar disorder symptoms in patients' daily life. Further validation of monitoring tools in a larger sample is needed. Conclusions are limited by the low prevalence of manic and depressive symptoms in the study sample. International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 05663421; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN05663421 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6d9wsibJB).

Tracking the Changes in Synchrony of the Electrophysiological Activity as the Uterus Approaches Labor Using Magnetomyographic Technique

PubMed Central

Govindan, Rathinaswamy B.; Siegel, Eric; Mckelvey, Samantha; Murphy, Pam; Lowery, Curtis L.

2015-01-01

The objective of the study was to perform serial magnetomyographic examinations in order to detect changes in synchrony characteristics of myometrial electrophysiological activity as women approach labor. Of the total of 56 patients recruited, the results of 149 examinations from 29 patients were included in the analysis. The global synchrony across each sensor spread over the abdomen was computed and quantified as synchronization index. The mean and the median value of the global synchrony were computed and correlated with time to active labor from the last recording. Overall, synchrony increased as the patient approached active labor (P = .035). Furthermore, mean synchronization index increased twice as fast in the nonnulliparous group compared to the nulliparous group (P = .039). The changes in synchrony of uterine electrophysiological activity near term could aid in prediction of labor. PMID:25352329

Implications of climate change for bird conservation in the southwestern U.S

Treesearch

Megan M. Friggens; Deborah M. Finch

2015-01-01

Future expected changes in climate and human activity threaten many riparian habitats, particularly in the southwestern U.S. Using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt3.3.3) modeling, we characterized habitat relationships and generated spatial predictions of habitat suitability for the Lucy’s warbler (Oreothlypis luciae), the Southwestern willow flycatcher (Empidonax...

Predicting Changes in Athletes' Well Being from Changes in Need Satisfaction over the Course of a Competitive Season

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Amorose, Anthony J.; Anderson-Butcher, Dawn; Cooper, Jillian

2009-01-01

It is commonly believed that participation in structured sport programs leads to positive experiences and beneficial developmental outcomes for children and adolescents. For instance, proponents of organized sport cite that participation can help build self-esteem, promote sportspersonship, encourage a valuing of physical activity, and provide a…

Effects of a one year physical activity program on serum C Terminal Agrin Fragment (CAF) concentrations among mobility limited older adults

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

OBJECTIVES: C terminal Agrin Fragment (CAF) has been proposed as a potential circulating biomarker for predicting changes in physical function among older adults. To determine the effect of a one year PA intervention on changes in CAF concentrations and to evaluate baseline and longitudinal associat...

Lateralization in Alpha-Band Oscillations Predicts the Locus and Spatial Distribution of Attention.

PubMed

Ikkai, Akiko; Dandekar, Sangita; Curtis, Clayton E

2016-01-01

Attending to a task-relevant location changes how neural activity oscillates in the alpha band (8-13Hz) in posterior visual cortical areas. However, a clear understanding of the relationships between top-down attention, changes in alpha oscillations in visual cortex, and attention performance are still poorly understood. Here, we tested the degree to which the posterior alpha power tracked the locus of attention, the distribution of attention, and how well the topography of alpha could predict the locus of attention. We recorded magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while subjects performed an attention demanding visual discrimination task that dissociated the direction of attention from the direction of a saccade to indicate choice. On some trials, an endogenous cue predicted the target's location, while on others it contained no spatial information. When the target's location was cued, alpha power decreased in sensors over occipital cortex contralateral to the attended visual field. When the cue did not predict the target's location, alpha power again decreased in sensors over occipital cortex, but bilaterally, and increased in sensors over frontal cortex. Thus, the distribution and the topography of alpha reliably indicated the locus of covert attention. Together, these results suggest that alpha synchronization reflects changes in the excitability of populations of neurons whose receptive fields match the locus of attention. This is consistent with the hypothesis that alpha oscillations reflect the neural mechanisms by which top-down control of attention biases information processing and modulate the activity of neurons in visual cortex.

Prediction of changes in memory performance by plasma homovanillic acid levels in clozapine-treated patients with schizophrenia.

PubMed

Sumiyoshi, Tomiki; Roy, A; Kim, C-H; Jayathilake, K; Lee, M A; Sumiyoshi, C; Meltzer, H Y

2004-12-01

Cognitive dysfunction in schizophrenia has been demonstrated to be dependent, in part, on dopaminergic activity. Clozapine has been found to improve some domains of cognition, including verbal memory, in patients with schizophrenia. This study tested the hypothesis that plasma homovanillic acid (pHVA) levels, a peripheral measure of central dopaminergic activity, would predict the change in memory performance in patients with schizophrenia treated with clozapine. Twenty-seven male patients with schizophrenia received clozapine treatment for 6 weeks. Verbal list learning (VLL)-Delayed Recall (VLL-DR), a test of secondary verbal memory, was administered before and after clozapine treatment. Blood samples to measure pHVA levels were collected at baseline. Baseline pHVA levels were negatively correlated with change in performance on VLL-DR; the lower baseline pHVA level was associated with greater improvement in performance on VLL-DR during treatment with clozapine. Baseline pHVA levels in subjects who showed improvement in verbal memory during clozapine treatment ( n=13) were significantly lower than those in subjects whose memory performance did not improve ( n=14). The results of this study indicate that baseline pHVA levels predict the ability of clozapine to improve memory performance in patients with schizophrenia.

The motivation to be sedentary predicts weight change when sedentary behaviors are reduced.

PubMed

Epstein, Leonard H; Roemmich, James N; Cavanaugh, Meghan D; Paluch, Rocco A

2011-02-22

Obesity is correlated with a sedentary lifestyle, and the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with obesity. The present study tests the hypothesis that the motivation to be active or sedentary is correlated with weight change when children reduce their sedentary behavior. The motivation to be active or sedentary, changes in weight, and accelerometer assessed physical activity were collected for 55 families with overweight/obese children who participated in a nine-week field study to examine behavior and weight change as a function of reducing sedentary behavior. Children were studied in three 3-week phases, baseline, reduce targeted sedentary behaviors by 25% and reduce targeted sedentary behaviors by 50%. The targeted sedentary behaviors included television, video game playing, video watching, and computer use. The reinforcing value of sedentary behavior but not physical activity, was correlated with weight change, as losing weight was associated with lower reinforcing value of sedentary behaviors. Reducing sedentary behavior was not associated with a significant change in objectively measured physical activity, suggesting the main way in which reducing sedentary behavior influenced weight change is by complementary changes in energy intake. Estimated energy intake supported the hypothesis that reducing sedentary behaviors influences weight by reducing energy intake. These data show that the motivation to be sedentary limits the effects of reducing sedentary behavior on weight change in obese children. © 2011 Epstein et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

SOLAR CYCLE PROPAGATION, MEMORY, AND PREDICTION: INSIGHTS FROM A CENTURY OF MAGNETIC PROXIES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres; DeLuca, Edward E.; Dasi-Espuig, Maria

The solar cycle and its associated magnetic activity are the main drivers behind changes in the interplanetary environment and Earth's upper atmosphere (commonly referred to as space weather). These changes have a direct impact on the lifetime of space-based assets and can create hazards to astronauts in space. In recent years there has been an effort to develop accurate solar cycle predictions (with aims at predicting the long-term evolution of space weather), leading to nearly a hundred widely spread predictions for the amplitude of solar cycle 24. A major contributor to the disagreement is the lack of direct long-term databasesmore » covering different components of the solar magnetic field (toroidal versus poloidal). Here, we use sunspot area and polar faculae measurements spanning a full century (as our toroidal and poloidal field proxies) to study solar cycle propagation, memory, and prediction. Our results substantiate predictions based on the polar magnetic fields, whereas we find sunspot area to be uncorrelated with cycle amplitude unless multiplied by area-weighted average tilt. This suggests that the joint assimilation of tilt and sunspot area is a better choice (with aims to cycle prediction) than sunspot area alone, and adds to the evidence in favor of active region emergence and decay as the main mechanism of poloidal field generation (i.e., the Babcock-Leighton mechanism). Finally, by looking at the correlation between our poloidal and toroidal proxies across multiple cycles, we find solar cycle memory to be limited to only one cycle.« less

After the Maples--What Then?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trisler, Carmen E.

1994-01-01

Uses models to illustrate the possible "migration route" of the sugar maple in response to predicted global climate change. Curriculum activities for students are provided that specifically address the sugar maple forests of the Great Lakes regions. (ZWH)

Advancing research on animal-transported subsidies by integrating animal movement and ecosystem modelling.

PubMed

Earl, Julia E; Zollner, Patrick A

2017-09-01

Connections between ecosystems via animals (active subsidies) support ecosystem services and contribute to numerous ecological effects. Thus, the ability to predict the spatial distribution of active subsidies would be useful for ecology and conservation. Previous work modelling active subsidies focused on implicit space or static distributions, which treat passive and active subsidies similarly. Active subsidies are fundamentally different from passive subsidies, because animals can respond to the process of subsidy deposition and ecosystem changes caused by subsidy deposition. We propose addressing this disparity by integrating animal movement and ecosystem ecology to advance active subsidy investigations, make more accurate predictions of subsidy spatial distributions, and enable a mechanistic understanding of subsidy spatial distributions. We review selected quantitative techniques that could be used to accomplish integration and lead to novel insights. The ultimate objective for these types of studies is predictions of subsidy spatial distributions from characteristics of the subsidy and the movement strategy employed by animals that transport subsidies. These advances will be critical in informing the management of ecosystem services, species conservation and ecosystem degradation related to active subsidies. © 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.

Crohn Disease: FDG PET/CT Before and After Initial Dose of Anti-Tumor Necrosis Factor Therapy to Predict Long-term Response.

PubMed

Epelboym, Yan; Shyn, Paul B; Chick, Jeffrey Forris Beecham; Hamilton, Matthew J; OʼConnor, Stacy D; Silverman, Stuart G; Kim, Chun K

2017-11-01

Clinical assessments of Crohn disease activity are limited in their capacity to assess treatment response to biologic therapy. The purpose of this study was to determine if changes in FDG activity between baseline PET and repeat PET performed prior to the second dose of induction anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy correlate with clinical response. In this prospective, institutional review board-approved, Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act-compliant pilot study of 8 adult patients with active Crohn disease, FDG activity before and 2 weeks after initiation of anti-TNF therapy was assessed using low-dose PET/CT. FDG activity was measured in the most inflamed bowel loop using an SUVratio (SUVmax/liver SUVmean). Changes in SUVratio were compared with a blinded gastroenterologist assessment of clinical response and steroid-free remission, as well as C-reactive protein (CRP), during a 12-month follow-up period. Of 8 patients, 7 showed FDG activity decline at 2 weeks, 5 of whom achieved a clinical response and steroid-free remission at 8, 26, and 52 weeks. The remaining 2 patients with FDG activity decline did not achieve a clinical response or steroid-free remission at these time points, but there were reductions in CRP. The 1 patient without FDG activity decline was a clinical nonresponder, had no reduction in CRP, and did not achieve steroid-free remission. A change in FDG activity at FDG PET/CT performed prior to the second induction dose of anti-TNF therapy has the potential to predict clinical response and steroid-free remission in patients with Crohn disease.

Permutation auto-mutual information of electroencephalogram in anesthesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liang, Zhenhu; Wang, Yinghua; Ouyang, Gaoxiang; Voss, Logan J.; Sleigh, Jamie W.; Li, Xiaoli

2013-04-01

Objective. The dynamic change of brain activity in anesthesia is an interesting topic for clinical doctors and drug designers. To explore the dynamical features of brain activity in anesthesia, a permutation auto-mutual information (PAMI) method is proposed to measure the information coupling of electroencephalogram (EEG) time series obtained in anesthesia. Approach. The PAMI is developed and applied on EEG data collected from 19 patients under sevoflurane anesthesia. The results are compared with the traditional auto-mutual information (AMI), SynchFastSlow (SFS, derived from the BIS index), permutation entropy (PE), composite PE (CPE), response entropy (RE) and state entropy (SE). Performance of all indices is assessed by pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling and prediction probability. Main results. The PK/PD modeling and prediction probability analysis show that the PAMI index correlates closely with the anesthetic effect. The coefficient of determination R2 between PAMI values and the sevoflurane effect site concentrations, and the prediction probability Pk are higher in comparison with other indices. The information coupling in EEG series can be applied to indicate the effect of the anesthetic drug sevoflurane on the brain activity as well as other indices. The PAMI of the EEG signals is suggested as a new index to track drug concentration change. Significance. The PAMI is a useful index for analyzing the EEG dynamics during general anesthesia.

Doppler laser imaging predicts response to topical minoxidil in the treatment of female pattern hair loss.

PubMed

McCoy, J; Kovacevic, M; Situm, M; Stanimirovic, A; Bolanca, Z; Goren, A

2016-01-01

Topical minoxidil is the only drug approved by the US FDA for the treatment of female pattern hair loss. Unfortunately, following 16 weeks of daily application, less than 40% of patients regrow hair. Several studies have demonstrated that sulfotransferase enzyme activity in plucked hair follicles predicts topical minoxidil response in female pattern hair loss patients. However, due to patients’ discomfort with the procedure, and the time required to perform the enzymatic assay it would be ideal to develop a rapid, non-invasive test for sulfotransferase enzyme activity. Minoxidil is a pro-drug converted to its active form, minoxidil sulfate, by sulfotransferase enzymes in the outer root sheath of hair. Minoxidil sulfate is the active form required for both the promotion of hair regrowth and the vasodilatory effects of minoxidil. We thus hypothesized that laser Doppler velocimetry measurement of scalp blood perfusion subsequent to the application of topical minoxidil would correlate with sulfotransferase enzyme activity in plucked hair follicles. In this study, plucked hair follicles from female pattern hair loss patients were analyzed for sulfotransferase enzyme activity. Additionally, laser Doppler velocimetry was used to measure the change in scalp perfusion at 15, 30, 45, and 60 minutes, after the application of minoxidil. In agreement with our hypothesis, we discovered a correlation (r=1.0) between the change in scalp perfusion within 60 minutes after topical minoxidil application and sulfotransferase enzyme activity in plucked hairs. To our knowledge, this is the first study demonstrating the feasibility of using laser Doppler imaging as a rapid, non-invasive diagnostic test to predict topical minoxidil response in the treatment of female pattern hair loss.

Exploring the Extreme: High Performance Learning Activities in Mathematics, Science and Technology.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

2003

This educator guide for grades K-4 and 5-8 presents the basic science of aeronautics by emphasizing hands-on involvement, prediction, data collections and interpretation, teamwork, and problem solving. Activities include: (1) Finding the Center of Gravity Using Rulers; (2) Finding the Center of Gravity Using Plumb Lines; (3) Changing the Center of…

Dynamic Variation in Pleasure in Children Predicts Nonlinear Change in Lateral Frontal Brain Electrical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Light, Sharee N.; Coan, James A.; Frye, Corrina; Goldsmith, H. Hill; Davidson, Richard J.

2009-01-01

Individual variation in the experience and expression of pleasure may relate to differential patterns of lateral frontal activity. Brain electrical measures have been used to study the asymmetric involvement of lateral frontal cortex in positive emotion, but the excellent time resolution of these measures has not been used to capture…

Physical Activity Related to Depression and Predicted Mortality Risk: Results from the Americans' Changing Lives Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lee, Pai-Lin; Lan, William; Lee, Charles C.-L.

2012-01-01

This study examined the association between three types of physical activities (PA) and depression, and the relationship between PA and later mortality. Previous studies rarely assessed these associations in one single study in randomly selected population samples. Few studies have assessed these relations by adjusting the covariate of…

Emotional Outlook on Life Predicts Increases in Physical Activity among Initially Inactive Men

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baruth, Meghan; Lee, Duck-Chul; Sui, Xuemei; Church, Timothy S.; Marcus, Bess H.; Wilcox, Sara; Blair, Steven N.

2011-01-01

This study examined the relationship between emotional outlook on life and change in physical activity among inactive adults in the Aerobics Center Longitudinal Study. A total of 2,132 sedentary adults completed a baseline medical examination and returned for a follow-up examination at least 6 months later. Participants self-reported physical…

Investigating the Effectiveness of an Active Learning Based-Interactive Conceptual Instruction (ALBICI) on Electric Field Concept

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Samsudin, Achmad; Suhandi, Andi; Rusdiana, Dadi; Kaniawati, Ida; Costu, Bayram

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop an Active Learning Based-Interactive Conceptual Instruction (ALBICI) model through PDEODE*E tasks (stands for Predict, Discuss, Explain, Observe, Discuss, Explore, and Explain) for promoting conceptual change and investigating its effectiveness of pre-service physics teachers' understanding on electric field…

Drift in Neural Population Activity Causes Working Memory to Deteriorate Over Time.

PubMed

Schneegans, Sebastian; Bays, Paul M

2018-05-23

Short-term memories are thought to be maintained in the form of sustained spiking activity in neural populations. Decreases in recall precision observed with increasing number of memorized items can be accounted for by a limit on total spiking activity, resulting in fewer spikes contributing to the representation of each individual item. Longer retention intervals likewise reduce recall precision, but it is unknown what changes in population activity produce this effect. One possibility is that spiking activity becomes attenuated over time, such that the same mechanism accounts for both effects of set size and retention duration. Alternatively, reduced performance may be caused by drift in the encoded value over time, without a decrease in overall spiking activity. Human participants of either sex performed a variable-delay cued recall task with a saccadic response, providing a precise measure of recall latency. Based on a spike integration model of decision making, if the effects of set size and retention duration are both caused by decreased spiking activity, we would predict a fixed relationship between recall precision and response latency across conditions. In contrast, the drift hypothesis predicts no systematic changes in latency with increasing delays. Our results show both an increase in latency with set size, and a decrease in response precision with longer delays within each set size, but no systematic increase in latency for increasing delay durations. These results were quantitatively reproduced by a model based on a limited neural resource in which working memories drift rather than decay with time. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Rapid deterioration over seconds is a defining feature of short-term memory, but what mechanism drives this degradation of internal representations? Here, we extend a successful population coding model of working memory by introducing possible mechanisms of delay effects. We show that a decay in neural signal over time predicts that the time required for memory retrieval will increase with delay, whereas a random drift in the stored value predicts no effect of delay on retrieval time. Testing these predictions in a multi-item memory task with an eye movement response, we identified drift as a key mechanism of memory decline. These results provide evidence for a dynamic spiking basis for working memory, in contrast to recent proposals of activity-silent storage. Copyright © 2018 Schneegans and Bays.

Neural activity during affect labeling predicts expressive writing effects on well-being: GLM and SVM approaches

PubMed Central

Memarian, Negar; Torre, Jared B.; Haltom, Kate E.; Stanton, Annette L.

2017-01-01

Abstract Affect labeling (putting feelings into words) is a form of incidental emotion regulation that could underpin some benefits of expressive writing (i.e. writing about negative experiences). Here, we show that neural responses during affect labeling predicted changes in psychological and physical well-being outcome measures 3 months later. Furthermore, neural activity of specific frontal regions and amygdala predicted those outcomes as a function of expressive writing. Using supervised learning (support vector machines regression), improvements in four measures of psychological and physical health (physical symptoms, depression, anxiety and life satisfaction) after an expressive writing intervention were predicted with an average of 0.85% prediction error [root mean square error (RMSE) %]. The predictions were significantly more accurate with machine learning than with the conventional generalized linear model method (average RMSE: 1.3%). Consistent with affect labeling research, right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (RVLPFC) and amygdalae were top predictors of improvement in the four outcomes. Moreover, RVLPFC and left amygdala predicted benefits due to expressive writing in satisfaction with life and depression outcome measures, respectively. This study demonstrates the substantial merit of supervised machine learning for real-world outcome prediction in social and affective neuroscience. PMID:28992270

A bidirectional relationship between physical activity and executive function in older adults

PubMed Central

Daly, Michael; McMinn, David; Allan, Julia L.

2015-01-01

Physically active lifestyles contribute to better executive function. However, it is unclear whether high levels of executive function lead people to be more active. This study uses a large sample and multi-wave data to identify whether a reciprocal association exists between physical activity and executive function. Participants were 4555 older adults tracked across four waves of the English Longitudinal Study of Aging. In each wave executive function was assessed using a verbal fluency test and a letter cancelation task and participants reported their physical activity levels. Fixed effects regressions showed that changes in executive function corresponded with changes in physical activity. In longitudinal multilevel models low levels of physical activity led to subsequent declines in executive function. Importantly, poor executive function predicted reductions in physical activity over time. This association was found to be over 50% larger in magnitude than the contribution of physical activity to changes in executive function. This is the first study to identify evidence for a robust bidirectional link between executive function and physical activity in a large sample of older adults tracked over time. PMID:25628552

Context Memory Decline in Middle Aged Adults is Related to Changes in Prefrontal Cortex Function.

PubMed

Kwon, Diana; Maillet, David; Pasvanis, Stamatoula; Ankudowich, Elizabeth; Grady, Cheryl L; Rajah, M Natasha

2016-06-01

The ability to encode and retrieve spatial and temporal contextual details of episodic memories (context memory) begins to decline at midlife. In the current study, event-related fMRI was used to investigate the neural correlates of context memory decline in healthy middle aged adults (MA) compared with young adults (YA). Participants were scanned while performing easy and hard versions of spatial and temporal context memory tasks. Scans were obtained at encoding and retrieval. Significant reductions in context memory retrieval accuracy were observed in MA, compared with YA. The fMRI results revealed that overall, both groups exhibited similar patterns of brain activity in parahippocampal cortex, ventral occipito-temporal regions and prefrontal cortex (PFC) during encoding. In contrast, at retrieval, there were group differences in ventral occipito-temporal and PFC activity, due to these regions being more activated in MA, compared with YA. Furthermore, only in YA, increased encoding activity in ventrolateral PFC, and increased retrieval activity in occipital cortex, predicted increased retrieval accuracy. In MA, increased retrieval activity in anterior PFC predicted increased retrieval accuracy. These results suggest that there are changes in PFC contributions to context memory at midlife. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

The Longitudinal Course of Gross Motor Activity in Schizophrenia – Within and between Episodes

PubMed Central

Walther, Sebastian; Stegmayer, Katharina; Horn, Helge; Rampa, Luca; Razavi, Nadja; Müller, Thomas J.; Strik, Werner

2015-01-01

Schizophrenia is associated with heterogeneous course of positive and negative symptoms. In addition, reduced motor activity as measured by wrist actigraphy has been reported. However, longitudinal studies of spontaneous motor activity are missing. We aimed to explore whether activity levels were stable within and between psychotic episodes. Furthermore, we investigated the association with the course of negative symptoms. In 45 medicated patients, we investigated motor behavior within a psychotic episode. In addition, we followed 18 medicated patients across 2 episodes. Wrist actigraphy and psychopathological ratings were applied. Within an episode symptoms changed but activity levels did not vary systematically. Activity at baseline predicted the course of negative symptoms. Between two episodes activity recordings were much more stable. Again, activity at the index episode predicted the outcome of negative symptoms. In sum, spontaneous motor activity shares trait and state characteristics, the latter are associated with negative symptom course. Actigraphy may therefore become an important ambulatory instrument to monitor negative symptoms and treatment outcome in schizophrenia. PMID:25698981

Insensitivity of evapotranspiration to seasonal rainfall distribution directs climate change impacts at water yield

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Montaldo, N.; Oren, R.

2017-12-01

Over the past century, climate change is affecting precipitation regimes across the world. In the Mediterranean regions there is a persistent trend of precipitation and runoff decreases, generating a desertification process. Given the past winter precipitation shifts, the impacts on evapotranspiration (ET) need to be carefully evaluated, and the compelling question is what will be the impact of future climate change scenarios (predicting changes of precipitation and vapor pressure deficit, VPD) on evapotranspiration and water yield? Looking for the key elements of the climate change that are impacting annual ET, we investigate main climate conditions (e.g. precipitation and VPD) and basin physiographic properties contributing to annual ET. We propose a simplified model for annual ET predictions that accounts for the strong meteo seasonality typical of Mediterranean climates, using the steady state assumption of the basin water balance at mean annual scale. We investigate the Sardinia case study because the position of the island of Sardinia in the center of the western Mediterranean Sea basin and its low urbanization and human activity make Sardinia a perfect reference laboratory for Mediterranean hydrologic studies. Sardinian runoff decreased drastically over the 1975-2010 period, with mean yearly runoff reduced by more than 40% compared to the previous 1922-1974 period, and most yearly runoff in the Sardinian basins (70% on average) is produced by winter precipitation due to the seasonality typical of the Mediterranean climate regime. The use of our proposed model allows to predict future ET and water yield using future climate scenarios. We use the future climate scenarios predicted by Global climate models (GCM) in the Fifth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and we select most reliable models testing the past GCM predictions with historical data. Contrasting shifts of precipitation (both positive and negative) are predicted in the future scenarios by GCMs but these changes will produce significant changes (level of significance > 90%) only in runoff and not in ET. Surprisingly, we show that ET is insensitive to intra-annual rainfall distribution changes, and is insensitive to VPD scenario changes.

Neural mechanisms of rhythm-based temporal prediction: Delta phase-locking reflects temporal predictability but not rhythmic entrainment.

PubMed

Breska, Assaf; Deouell, Leon Y

2017-02-01

Predicting the timing of upcoming events enables efficient resource allocation and action preparation. Rhythmic streams, such as music, speech, and biological motion, constitute a pervasive source for temporal predictions. Widely accepted entrainment theories postulate that rhythm-based predictions are mediated by synchronizing low-frequency neural oscillations to the rhythm, as indicated by increased phase concentration (PC) of low-frequency neural activity for rhythmic compared to random streams. However, we show here that PC enhancement in scalp recordings is not specific to rhythms but is observed to the same extent in less periodic streams if they enable memory-based prediction. This is inconsistent with the predictions of a computational entrainment model of stronger PC for rhythmic streams. Anticipatory change in alpha activity and facilitation of electroencephalogram (EEG) manifestations of response selection are also comparable between rhythm- and memory-based predictions. However, rhythmic sequences uniquely result in obligatory depression of preparation-related premotor brain activity when an on-beat event is omitted, even when it is strategically beneficial to maintain preparation, leading to larger behavioral costs for violation of prediction. Thus, while our findings undermine the validity of PC as a sign of rhythmic entrainment, they constitute the first electrophysiological dissociation, to our knowledge, between mechanisms of rhythmic predictions and of memory-based predictions: the former obligatorily lead to resonance-like preparation patterns (that are in line with entrainment), while the latter allow flexible resource allocation in time regardless of periodicity in the input. Taken together, they delineate the neural mechanisms of three distinct modes of preparation: continuous vigilance, interval-timing-based prediction and rhythm-based prediction.

Neural mechanisms of rhythm-based temporal prediction: Delta phase-locking reflects temporal predictability but not rhythmic entrainment

PubMed Central

Deouell, Leon Y.

2017-01-01

Predicting the timing of upcoming events enables efficient resource allocation and action preparation. Rhythmic streams, such as music, speech, and biological motion, constitute a pervasive source for temporal predictions. Widely accepted entrainment theories postulate that rhythm-based predictions are mediated by synchronizing low-frequency neural oscillations to the rhythm, as indicated by increased phase concentration (PC) of low-frequency neural activity for rhythmic compared to random streams. However, we show here that PC enhancement in scalp recordings is not specific to rhythms but is observed to the same extent in less periodic streams if they enable memory-based prediction. This is inconsistent with the predictions of a computational entrainment model of stronger PC for rhythmic streams. Anticipatory change in alpha activity and facilitation of electroencephalogram (EEG) manifestations of response selection are also comparable between rhythm- and memory-based predictions. However, rhythmic sequences uniquely result in obligatory depression of preparation-related premotor brain activity when an on-beat event is omitted, even when it is strategically beneficial to maintain preparation, leading to larger behavioral costs for violation of prediction. Thus, while our findings undermine the validity of PC as a sign of rhythmic entrainment, they constitute the first electrophysiological dissociation, to our knowledge, between mechanisms of rhythmic predictions and of memory-based predictions: the former obligatorily lead to resonance-like preparation patterns (that are in line with entrainment), while the latter allow flexible resource allocation in time regardless of periodicity in the input. Taken together, they delineate the neural mechanisms of three distinct modes of preparation: continuous vigilance, interval-timing-based prediction and rhythm-based prediction. PMID:28187128

Legal ramifications of intellectual property

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kempf, Robert F.

1990-01-01

Recent government policy changes that have resulted in encouraging or requiring increased intellectual property rights of federally funded research and development activities are examined. The reasons for these changes are discussed, including considerations related to technology transfer, patent rights, copyrights, trade secrets, and computer software issues. The effect of these changes on traditional approaches to the dissemination of federally funded scientific and technical information is considered and predictions concerning future trends in intellectual property rights are given.

Legal ramifications of intellectual property

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kempf, Robert F.

1990-01-01

Recent government policy changes that have resulted in encouraging or requiring increased intellectual property rights of Federally funded research and development activities are examined. The reasons for these changes are discussed, including considerations related to technology transfer, patent rights, copyrights, trade secrets, and computer software issues. The effect of these changes on traditional approaches to the dissemination of Federally funded scientific and technical information is considered and predictions concerning future trends in intellectual property rights are given.

Ensemble Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Genesis

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-23

future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the Hawaiian Islands are investigated using the state-of-the-art climate models1–3. We find that...future warmer climate . This is in contrast to the NA, where BDI increases for all dynamic variables investigated while it shows little change for...Li, and A. Kitoh, 2013: Projected future increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii. Nature Climate Change , 3, 749-754, doi:10.1038/nclimate1890

CONTRIBUTION OF NUTRIENTS AND E.COLI TO SURFACE WATER CONDITION IN THE OZARKS: PART II USING LANDSCAPE ECOLOGY AND PARTIAL LEAST SQUARES PREDICTIONS TO MAP WATERSHEDS THAT ARE VULNERABLE TO NON-POINT SOURCE POLLUTION

EPA Science Inventory

The results of this project provide watershed managers with the first broad-scale predictions that can be used to explain how land cover type, land cover configuration, environmental change, and human activities may affect the chemical and biological characteristics of surface wa...

Surface acoustic wave probe implant for predicting epileptic seizures

DOEpatents

Gopalsami, Nachappa [Naperville, IL; Kulikov, Stanislav [Sarov, RU; Osorio, Ivan [Leawood, KS; Raptis, Apostolos C [Downers Grove, IL

2012-04-24

A system and method for predicting and avoiding a seizure in a patient. The system and method includes use of an implanted surface acoustic wave probe and coupled RF antenna to monitor temperature of the patient's brain, critical changes in the temperature characteristic of a precursor to the seizure. The system can activate an implanted cooling unit which can avoid or minimize a seizure in the patient.

Predator-induced defenses in tadpoles confound body stoichiometry predictions of the general stress paradigm.

PubMed

Costello, David M; Michel, Matt J

2013-10-01

Predation is known to have both direct and indirect effects on nutrient cycling in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, and the general stress paradigm (GSP) has been promoted as a theory for describing predator-mediated indirect effects on nutrient cycling. The GSP predicts that prey exposed to predators will produce glucocorticosteroids, which have a host of physiological effects including gluconeogenesis, increased respiration, excretion of N and P, and increases in body C:N. We tested the nutrient predictions of the GSP using anuran larvae, which exhibit morphological defenses in addition to behavioral defenses for which the GSP was conceived. Genetically similar Hyla versicolor tadpoles were placed in mesocosms either in the presence or absence of a fed predator (Dytiscus verticalis), and after two weeks, tadpoles exposed to predators exhibited strong induced defenses with large, tubular bodies, larger tails, and reduced activity. Tadpole body %C and N:P increased with no change in C:N, which is contrary to expectations from the GSP. Statistical models suggested that changes in body morphology (e.g., tail muscle width) rather than behavioral defenses (i.e., reduced activity) were most likely responsible for predator-mediated differences in body stoichiometry. This study suggests that strong morphological defenses may overwhelm or counteract the nutrient predictions of the GSP.

From climate to global change: Following the footprint of Prof. Duzheng YE's research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fu, Congbin

2017-10-01

To commemorate 100 years since the birth of Professor Duzheng YE, this paper reviews the contribution of Ye and his research team to the development from climate to global change science in the past 30 or so years, including: (1) the role of climate change in global change; (2) the critical time scales and predictability of global change; (3) the sensitive regions of global change—transitional zones of climate and ecosystems; and (4) orderly human activities and adaptation to global change, with a focus on the development of a proactive strategy for adaptation to such change.

Climate shapes the protein abundance of dominant soil bacteria.

PubMed

Bastida, Felipe; Crowther, Tom W; Prieto, Iván; Routh, Devin; García, Carlos; Jehmlich, Nico

2018-05-28

Sensitive models of climate change impacts would require a better integration of multi-omics approaches that connect the abundance and activity of microbial populations. Here, we show that climate is a fundamental driver of the protein abundance of Actinobacteria, Planctomycetes and Proteobacteria, supporting the hypothesis that metabolic activity of some dominant phyla may be closely linked to climate. These results may improve our capacity to construct microbial models that better predict the impact of climate change in ecosystem processes. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do Emotions Expressed Online Correlate with Actual Changes in Decision-Making?: The Case of Stock Day Traders.

PubMed

Liu, Bin; Govindan, Ramesh; Uzzi, Brian

2016-01-01

Emotions are increasingly inferred linguistically from online data with a goal of predicting off-line behavior. Yet, it is unknown whether emotions inferred linguistically from online communications correlate with actual changes in off-line activity. We analyzed all 886,000 trading decisions and 1,234,822 instant messages of 30 professional day traders over a continuous 2 year period. Linguistically inferring the traders' emotional states from instant messages, we find that emotions expressed in online communications reflect the same distributions of emotions found in controlled experiments done on traders. Further, we find that expressed online emotions predict the profitability of actual trading behavior. Relative to their baselines, traders who expressed little emotion or traders that expressed high levels of emotion made relatively unprofitable trades. Conversely, traders expressing moderate levels of emotional activation made relatively profitable trades.

Predicting Fire Season Severity in South America Using Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chen, Yang; Randerson, James T.; Morton, Douglas C.; Jin, Yufang; DeFries, Ruth S.; Collatz, George J.; Kasibhatla, Prasad S.; Giglio, Louis; Jin, Yufang; Marlier, Miriam

2011-01-01

Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. Here we investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in satellite-derived estimates of fire activity in South America and sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. We found that the Oceanic Ni o Index (ONI) was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model that predicted regional annual fire season severity (FSS) with 3-5 month lead times. Our approach provides the foundation for an early warning system for forecasting the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for mitigation of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions.

Mechanical work makes important contributions to surface chemistry at steps.

PubMed

Francis, M F; Curtin, W A

2015-02-13

The effect of mechanical strain on the binding energy of adsorbates to late transition metals is believed to be entirely controlled by electronic factors, with tensile stress inducing stronger binding. Here we show, via computation, that mechanical strain of late transition metals can modify binding at stepped surfaces opposite to well-established trends on flat surfaces. The mechanism driving the trend is mechanical, arising from the relaxation of stored mechanical energy. The mechanical energy change can be larger than, and of opposite sign than, the energy changes due to electronic effects and leads to a violation of trends predicted by the widely accepted electronic 'd-band' model. This trend has a direct impact on catalytic activity, which is demonstrated here for methanation, where biaxial tension is predicted to shift the activity of nickel significantly, reaching the peak of the volcano plot and comparable to cobalt and ruthenium.

Do Emotions Expressed Online Correlate with Actual Changes in Decision-Making?: The Case of Stock Day Traders

PubMed Central

Liu, Bin; Govindan, Ramesh; Uzzi, Brian

2016-01-01

Emotions are increasingly inferred linguistically from online data with a goal of predicting off-line behavior. Yet, it is unknown whether emotions inferred linguistically from online communications correlate with actual changes in off-line activity. We analyzed all 886,000 trading decisions and 1,234,822 instant messages of 30 professional day traders over a continuous 2 year period. Linguistically inferring the traders’ emotional states from instant messages, we find that emotions expressed in online communications reflect the same distributions of emotions found in controlled experiments done on traders. Further, we find that expressed online emotions predict the profitability of actual trading behavior. Relative to their baselines, traders who expressed little emotion or traders that expressed high levels of emotion made relatively unprofitable trades. Conversely, traders expressing moderate levels of emotional activation made relatively profitable trades. PMID:26765539

Are whooping cranes destined for extinction? Climate change imperils recruitment and population growth.

PubMed

Butler, Matthew J; Metzger, Kristine L; Harris, Grant M

2017-04-01

Identifying climatic drivers of an animal population's vital rates and locating where they operate steers conservation efforts to optimize species recovery. The population growth of endangered whooping cranes ( Grus americana ) hinges on juvenile recruitment. Therefore, we identify climatic drivers (solar activity [sunspots] and weather) of whooping crane recruitment throughout the species' life cycle (breeding, migration, wintering). Our method uses a repeated cross-validated absolute shrinkage and selection operator approach to identify drivers of recruitment. We model effects of climate change on those drivers to predict whooping crane population growth given alternative scenarios of climate change and solar activity. Years with fewer sunspots indicated greater recruitment. Increased precipitation during autumn migration signified less recruitment. On the breeding grounds, fewer days below freezing during winter and more precipitation during breeding suggested less recruitment. We predicted whooping crane recruitment and population growth may fall below long-term averages during all solar cycles when atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, as expected, to 500 ppm by 2050. Species recovery during a typical solar cycle with 500 ppm may require eight times longer than conditions without climate change and the chance of population decline increases to 31%. Although this whooping crane population is growing and may appear secure, long-term threats imposed by climate change and increased solar activity may jeopardize its persistence. Weather on the breeding grounds likely affects recruitment through hydrological processes and predation risk, whereas precipitation during autumn migration may influence juvenile mortality. Mitigating threats or abating climate change should occur within ≈30 years or this wild population of whooping cranes may begin declining.

Environment-dependence of behavioural consistency in adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis).

PubMed

Horváth, Gergely; Mészáros, Boglárka; Urszán, Tamás János; Bajer, Katalin; Molnár, Orsolya; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Herczeg, Gábor

2017-01-01

Understanding the background mechanisms affecting the emergence and maintenance of consistent between-individual variation within population in single (animal personality) or across multiple (behavioural syndrome) behaviours has key importance. State-dependence theory suggests that behaviour is 'anchored' to individual state (e.g. body condition, gender, age) and behavioural consistency emerges through behavioural-state feedbacks. A number of relevant state variables are labile (e.g. body condition, physiological performance) and expected to be affected by short-term environmental change. Yet, whether short-term environmental shifts affect behavioural consistency during adulthood remains questionable. Here, by employing a full-factorial laboratory experiment, we explored if quantity of food (low vs. high) and time available for thermoregulation (3h vs. 10h per day) had an effect on activity and risk-taking of reproductive adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis). We focussed on different components of behavioural variation: (i) strength of behavioural consistency (repeatability for animal personality; between-individual correlation for behavioural syndrome), (ii) behavioural type (individual mean behaviour) and (iii) behavioural predictability (within-individual behavioural variation). Activity was repeatable in all treatments. Risk-taking was repeatable only in the low basking treatments. We found significant between-individual correlation only in the low food × long basking time group. The treatments did not affect behavioural type, but affected behavioural predictability. Activity predictability was higher in the short basking treatment, where it also decreased with size (≈ age). Risk-taking predictability in the short basking treatment increased with size under food limitation, but decreased when food supply was high. We conclude that short-term environmental change can alter various components of behavioural consistency. The effect could be detected in the presence/absence patterns of animal personality and behavioural syndrome and the level of individual behavioural predictability, but not in behavioural type.

An Arrhenius-type viscosity function to model sintering using the Skorohod Olevsky viscous sintering model within a finite element code.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ewsuk, Kevin Gregory; Arguello, Jose Guadalupe, Jr.; Reiterer, Markus W.

2006-02-01

The ease and ability to predict sintering shrinkage and densification with the Skorohod-Olevsky viscous sintering (SOVS) model within a finite-element (FE) code have been improved with the use of an Arrhenius-type viscosity function. The need for a better viscosity function was identified by evaluating SOVS model predictions made using a previously published polynomial viscosity function. Predictions made using the original, polynomial viscosity function do not accurately reflect experimentally observed sintering behavior. To more easily and better predict sintering behavior using FE simulations, a thermally activated viscosity function based on creep theory was used with the SOVS model. In comparison withmore » the polynomial viscosity function, SOVS model predictions made using the Arrhenius-type viscosity function are more representative of experimentally observed viscosity and sintering behavior. Additionally, the effects of changes in heating rate on densification can easily be predicted with the Arrhenius-type viscosity function. Another attribute of the Arrhenius-type viscosity function is that it provides the potential to link different sintering models. For example, the apparent activation energy, Q, for densification used in the construction of the master sintering curve for a low-temperature cofire ceramic dielectric has been used as the apparent activation energy for material flow in the Arrhenius-type viscosity function to predict heating rate-dependent sintering behavior using the SOVS model.« less

Clinical responses to ERK inhibition in BRAFV600E-mutant colorectal cancer predicted using a computational model.

PubMed

Kirouac, Daniel C; Schaefer, Gabriele; Chan, Jocelyn; Merchant, Mark; Orr, Christine; Huang, Shih-Min A; Moffat, John; Liu, Lichuan; Gadkar, Kapil; Ramanujan, Saroja

2017-01-01

Approximately 10% of colorectal cancers harbor BRAF V600E mutations, which constitutively activate the MAPK signaling pathway. We sought to determine whether ERK inhibitor (GDC-0994)-containing regimens may be of clinical benefit to these patients based on data from in vitro (cell line) and in vivo (cell- and patient-derived xenograft) studies of cetuximab (EGFR), vemurafenib (BRAF), cobimetinib (MEK), and GDC-0994 (ERK) combinations. Preclinical data was used to develop a mechanism-based computational model linking cell surface receptor (EGFR) activation, the MAPK signaling pathway, and tumor growth. Clinical predictions of anti-tumor activity were enabled by the use of tumor response data from three Phase 1 clinical trials testing combinations of EGFR, BRAF, and MEK inhibitors. Simulated responses to GDC-0994 monotherapy (overall response rate = 17%) accurately predicted results from a Phase 1 clinical trial regarding the number of responding patients (2/18) and the distribution of tumor size changes ("waterfall plot"). Prospective simulations were then used to evaluate potential drug combinations and predictive biomarkers for increasing responsiveness to MEK/ERK inhibitors in these patients.

Implicit Race Bias Decreases the Similarity of Neural Representations of Black and White Faces

PubMed Central

Brosch, Tobias; Bar-David, Eyal; Phelps, Elizabeth A.

2013-01-01

Implicit race bias has been shown to affect decisions and behaviors. It may also change perceptual experience by increasing perceived differences between social groups. We investigated how this phenomenon may be expressed at the neural level by testing whether the distributed blood-oxygenation-level-dependent (BOLD) patterns representing Black and White faces are more dissimilar in participants with higher implicit race bias. We used multivoxel pattern analysis to predict the race of faces participants were viewing. We successfully predicted the race of the faces on the basis of BOLD activation patterns in early occipital visual cortex, occipital face area, and fusiform face area (FFA). Whereas BOLD activation patterns in early visual regions, likely reflecting different perceptual features, allowed successful prediction for all participants, successful prediction on the basis of BOLD activation patterns in FFA, a high-level face-processing region, was restricted to participants with high pro-White bias. These findings suggest that stronger implicit pro-White bias decreases the similarity of neural representations of Black and White faces. PMID:23300228

Changes in the glucosinolate-myrosinase defense system in Brassica juncea cotyledons during seedling development.

PubMed

Wallace, S K; Eigenbrode, Sanford D

2002-02-01

Optimal defense theory (ODT) predicts that plant defenses will be allocated to plant organs and tissues in proportion to their relative fitness values and susceptibilities to attack. This study was designed to test ODT predictions on the myrosinase-glucosinolate defense system in Brassica juncea by examining the relationships between the fitness value of B. juncea cotyledons and the levels and effectiveness of cotyledon defenses. Specifically, we estimated fitness value of cotyledons during plant development by measuring plant growth and seed production after cotyledon damage or removal at successive seedling ages. Cotyledon removal within five days of emergence had a significant impact on growth and seed production, but cotyledon removal at later stages did not. Consistent with ODT, glucosinolate and myrosinase levels in cotyledons also declined with seedling age, as did relative defenses against a generalist herbivore, Spodoptera eridania, as estimated by bioassay. Declines in glucosinolates were as predicted by a passive, allometric dilution model based on cotyledon expansion. Declines in myrosinase activity were significantly more gradual than predicted by allometric dilution, suggesting active retention of myrosinase activity as young cotyledons expand.

Activities for Students: Predicting Future Gas Prices Using the Standards for Mathematical Practice

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bismarck, Stephen F.; Zelkowski, Jeremy; Gleason, Jim

2014-01-01

Like many commodities, the price of gasoline continues to rise, and these price changes are readily observed in gas stations' signage. Moreover, algebraic methods are well suited to model price change and answer the student's question. Over the course of one ninety-minute block or two forty-five-minute classes, students build functions…

Understanding which parameters control shallow ascent of silicic effusive magma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thomas, Mark E.; Neuberg, Jurgen W.

2014-11-01

The estimation of the magma ascent rate is key to predicting volcanic activity and relies on the understanding of how strongly the ascent rate is controlled by different magmatic parameters. Linking potential changes of such parameters to monitoring data is an essential step to be able to use these data as a predictive tool. We present the results of a suite of conduit flow models Soufrière that assess the influence of individual model parameters such as the magmatic water content, temperature or bulk magma composition on the magma flow in the conduit during an extrusive dome eruption. By systematically varying these parameters we assess their relative importance to changes in ascent rate. We show that variability in the rate of low frequency seismicity, assumed to correlate directly with the rate of magma movement, can be used as an indicator for changes in ascent rate and, therefore, eruptive activity. The results indicate that conduit diameter and excess pressure in the magma chamber are amongst the dominant controlling variables, but the single most important parameter is the volatile content (assumed as only water). Modeling this parameter in the range of reported values causes changes in the calculated ascent velocities of up to 800%.

Lower sexual interest in postpartum women: relationship to amygdala activation and intranasal oxytocin

PubMed Central

RUPP, HEATHER A.; JAMES, THOMAS W.; KETTERSON, ELLEN D.; SENGELAUB, DALE R.; DITZEN, BEATE; HEIMAN, JULIA R.

2012-01-01

During the postpartum period, women experience significant changes in their neuroendocrine profiles and social behavior compared to before pregnancy. A common experience with motherhood is a decrease in sexual desire. Although the lifestyle and peripheral physiological changes associated with parturition might decrease a woman’s sexual interest, we hypothesized that there are also hormone-mediated changes in women’s neural response to sexual and infant stimuli with altered reproductive priorities. We predicted that amygdala activation to sexually arousing stimuli would be suppressed in postpartum versus nulliparous women, and altered with intranasal oxytocin administration. To test this, we measured amygdala activation using fMRI in response to sexually arousing pictures, infant pictures, and neutral pictures in 29 postpartum and 30 nulliparous women. Half of the women received a dose of exogenous oxytocin before scanning. As predicted, nulliparous women subjectively rated sexual pictures to be more arousing, and infant pictures to be less arousing, than did postpartum women. However, nulliparous women receiving the nasal oxytocin spray rated the infant photos as arousing as did postpartum women. Right amygdala activation was lower in postpartum versus nulliparous women in response to sexual, infant, and neutral images, suggesting a generalized decrease in right amygdala responsiveness to arousing images with parturition. There was no difference in right amygdala activation with nasal spray application. Postpartum women therefore appear to experience a decrease in sexual interest possibly as a feature of a more generalized decrease in amygdala responsiveness to arousing stimuli. PMID:23085496

Bidirectional associations between activity-related parenting practices, and child physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior and body mass index: a longitudinal analysis.

PubMed

Sleddens, Ester F C; Gubbels, Jessica S; Kremers, Stef P J; van der Plas, Eline; Thijs, Carel

2017-07-06

It has been generally assumed that activity-related parenting practices influence children's activity behavior and weight status. However, vice versa parents may also change their parenting behaviors in response to their perceptions of their child's activity behavior and weight status. This study examined the bidirectional relationships between activity-related parenting practices, and physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior, and body mass index (BMI) between children's age of 5 and 7 years. Three scales of the Activity-related Parenting Questionnaire (i.e. 'restriction of sedentary behavior', 'stimulation of physical activity', and 'monitoring of physical activity') were completed by 1694 parents of the Dutch KOALA Birth Cohort Study at the child's age of around 5 and again around age 7. Physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior and BMI were measured at both ages as well. Linear regression models were used to estimate the bidirectional associations between each parenting practice and the child's physical activity levels, sedentary screen-based behavior and BMI z-scores. Several parenting practices at age 5 predicted child physical activity, sedentary screen-based behavior, and BMI z-scores at age 7. Restriction of sedentary behavior positively predicted child BMI and sedentary screen-based behavior, whereas this practice negatively predicted child physical activity. In addition, stimulation of physical activity at age 5 was significantly associated with higher levels of child physical activity at age 7. The following child factors at age 5 predicted parenting practices at age 7: Child physical activity positively predicted parental stimulation of physical activity and monitoring activities. Sedentary screen-based behavior was associated with lower parental stimulation to be active. Findings generally revealed that parents and children mutually influence each other's behavior. A reinforcing feedback loop was present between parental stimulation of physical activity and child physical activity. Bidirectional parent-child interaction should be considered in future research in order to properly inform parenting-related intervention programs aimed at preventing or treating childhood overweight or obesity. System dynamic methods to explore the existence of reinforcing or balancing loops are needed in this regard.

Active Cavity Irradiance Monitor Satellite ACRIMSAT Artist Concept

NASA Image and Video Library

1999-12-21

The Active Cavity Irradiance Monitor Satellite, or ACRIMSAT, mission is a climate change investigation that measures changes in how much of the sun's energy reaches Earth's atmosphere. This energy, called solar irradience, creates winds, heats the land and drives ocean currents, and therefore contains significant data that climatologists can use to improve predictions of climate change and global warming. The satellite's Active Cavity Irradiance Monitor III instrument, now in its third generation, has been used since the 1980s to study solar irradiance and its impacts on global warming. Scientists, using data from the instrument, now theorize that there is a significant correlation between solar radiation and global warming. ACRIMSAT completed its five-year primary mission in 2005 when it began operating under its extended mission. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA18157

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect.

PubMed

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M

2015-09-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing.

Unexpected consequences of a drier world: evidence that delay in late summer rains biases the population sex ratio of an insect

PubMed Central

Bonal, Raul; Hernández, Marisa; Espelta, Josep M.; Muñoz, Alberto; Aparicio, José M.

2015-01-01

The complexity of animal life histories makes it difficult to predict the consequences of climate change on their populations. In this paper, we show, for the first time, that longer summer drought episodes, such as those predicted for the dry Mediterranean region under climate change, may bias insect population sex ratio. Many Mediterranean organisms, like the weevil Curculio elephas, become active again after summer drought. This insect depends on late summer rainfall to soften the soil and allow adult emergence from their underground refuges. We found that, as in many protandric species, more C. elephas females emerged later in the season. Male emergence timing was on average earlier and also more dependent on the beginning of late summer rainfall. When these rains were delayed, the observed weevil sex ratio was biased towards females. So far, the effects of global warming on animal sex ratios has been reported for temperature-dependent sex determination in reptiles. Our results show that rainfall timing can also bias the sex ratio in an insect, and highlight the need for keeping a phenological perspective to predict the consequences of climate change. We must consider not just the magnitude of the predicted changes in temperature and rainfall but also the effects of their timing. PMID:26473046

Leveraged resources and systems changes in community collaboration.

PubMed

Harper, Christopher R; Kuperminc, Gabriel P; Weaver, Scott R; Emshoff, Jim; Erickson, Steve

2014-12-01

Most models of community collaboration emphasize the ability of diverse partners to come together to enact systematic changes that improve the health of individuals and communities. The ability of these groups to leverage resources is thought to be an important marker of successful collaboration and eventual improvements in community health. However, there is a paucity of research addressing linkages between systems change activities and leveraged resources. This study used a sample of collaboratives (N = 157) that received technical assistance and funding through the Georgia Family Connection Partnership (GaFCP) between 2006 and 2007. Data were collected from collaborative report of activities and funding, member ratings of collaborative functioning, and characteristics of the communities served by the collaboratives drawn from US Census data. Cross-lagged regression models tested longitudinal associations between systems change activities and leveraged dollars. The results indicated that systems change activities predict increased leveraging of resources from state/federal and private partners. However, there was no evidence that systems changes were linked with leveraging resources from local groups and agencies. These findings have important implications for providing technical assistance and training to health partnerships. Furthermore, future research should consider the relative strength of different systems change activities in relation to the ability of coalitions to leverage resources.

The impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

PubMed

Chen, Huai; Zhu, Qiuan; Peng, Changhui; Wu, Ning; Wang, Yanfen; Fang, Xiuqing; Gao, Yongheng; Zhu, Dan; Yang, Gang; Tian, Jianqing; Kang, Xiaoming; Piao, Shilong; Ouyang, Hua; Xiang, Wenhua; Luo, Zhibin; Jiang, Hong; Song, Xingzhang; Zhang, Yao; Yu, Guirui; Zhao, Xinquan; Gong, Peng; Yao, Tandong; Wu, Jianghua

2013-10-01

With a pace of about twice the observed rate of global warming, the temperature on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (Earth's 'third pole') has increased by 0.2 °C per decade over the past 50 years, which results in significant permafrost thawing and glacier retreat. Our review suggested that warming enhanced net primary production and soil respiration, decreased methane (CH(4)) emissions from wetlands and increased CH(4) consumption of meadows, but might increase CH(4) emissions from lakes. Warming-induced permafrost thawing and glaciers melting would also result in substantial emission of old carbon dioxide (CO(2)) and CH(4). Nitrous oxide (N(2)O) emission was not stimulated by warming itself, but might be slightly enhanced by wetting. However, there are many uncertainties in such biogeochemical cycles under climate change. Human activities (e.g. grazing, land cover changes) further modified the biogeochemical cycles and amplified such uncertainties on the plateau. If the projected warming and wetting continues, the future biogeochemical cycles will be more complicated. So facing research in this field is an ongoing challenge of integrating field observations with process-based ecosystem models to predict the impacts of future climate change and human activities at various temporal and spatial scales. To reduce the uncertainties and to improve the precision of the predictions of the impacts of climate change and human activities on biogeochemical cycles, efforts should focus on conducting more field observation studies, integrating data within improved models, and developing new knowledge about coupling among carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus biogeochemical cycles as well as about the role of microbes in these cycles. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

Pupil diameter tracks changes in control state predicted by the adaptive gain theory of locus coeruleus function

PubMed Central

Gilzenrat, Mark S.; Nieuwenhuis, Sander; Jepma, Marieke; Cohen, Jonathan D.

2010-01-01

An important dimension of cognitive control is the adaptive regulation of the balance between exploitation (pursuing known sources of reward) and exploration (seeking new ones) in response to changes in task utility. Recent studies have suggested that the locus coeruleus–norepinephrine system may play an important role in this function and that pupil diameter can be used to index locus coeruleus activity. On the basis of this, we reasoned that pupil diameter may correlate closely with control state and associated changes in behavior. Specifically, we predicted that increases in baseline pupil diameter would be associated with decreases in task utility and disengagement from the task (exploration), whereas reduced baseline diameter (but increases in task-evoked dilations) would be associated with task engagement (exploitation). Findings in three experiments were consistent with these predictions, suggesting that pupillometry may be useful as an index of both control state and, indirectly, locus coeruleus function. PMID:20498349

Identifiability, reducibility, and adaptability in allosteric macromolecules.

PubMed

Bohner, Gergő; Venkataraman, Gaurav

2017-05-01

The ability of macromolecules to transduce stimulus information at one site into conformational changes at a distant site, termed "allostery," is vital for cellular signaling. Here, we propose a link between the sensitivity of allosteric macromolecules to their underlying biophysical parameters, the interrelationships between these parameters, and macromolecular adaptability. We demonstrate that the parameters of a canonical model of the mSlo large-conductance Ca 2+ -activated K + (BK) ion channel are non-identifiable with respect to the equilibrium open probability-voltage relationship, a common functional assay. We construct a reduced model with emergent parameters that are identifiable and expressed as combinations of the original mechanistic parameters. These emergent parameters indicate which coordinated changes in mechanistic parameters can leave assay output unchanged. We predict that these coordinated changes are used by allosteric macromolecules to adapt, and we demonstrate how this prediction can be tested experimentally. We show that these predicted parameter compensations are used in the first reported allosteric phenomena: the Bohr effect, by which hemoglobin adapts to varying pH. © 2017 Bohner and Venkataraman.

Identifiability, reducibility, and adaptability in allosteric macromolecules

PubMed Central

Bohner, Gergő

2017-01-01

The ability of macromolecules to transduce stimulus information at one site into conformational changes at a distant site, termed “allostery,” is vital for cellular signaling. Here, we propose a link between the sensitivity of allosteric macromolecules to their underlying biophysical parameters, the interrelationships between these parameters, and macromolecular adaptability. We demonstrate that the parameters of a canonical model of the mSlo large-conductance Ca2+-activated K+ (BK) ion channel are non-identifiable with respect to the equilibrium open probability-voltage relationship, a common functional assay. We construct a reduced model with emergent parameters that are identifiable and expressed as combinations of the original mechanistic parameters. These emergent parameters indicate which coordinated changes in mechanistic parameters can leave assay output unchanged. We predict that these coordinated changes are used by allosteric macromolecules to adapt, and we demonstrate how this prediction can be tested experimentally. We show that these predicted parameter compensations are used in the first reported allosteric phenomena: the Bohr effect, by which hemoglobin adapts to varying pH. PMID:28416647

Diagnostic Accuracy of a New Cardiac Electrical Biomarker for Detection of Electrocardiogram Changes Suggestive of Acute Myocardial Ischemic Injury

PubMed Central

Schreck, David M; Fishberg, Robert D

2014-01-01

Objective A new cardiac “electrical” biomarker (CEB) for detection of 12-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) changes indicative of acute myocardial ischemic injury has been identified. Objective was to test CEB diagnostic accuracy. Methods This is a blinded, observational retrospective case-control, noninferiority study. A total of 508 ECGs obtained from archived digital databases were interpreted by cardiologist and emergency physician (EP) blinded reference standards for presence of acute myocardial ischemic injury. CEB was constructed from three ECG cardiac monitoring leads using nonlinear modeling. Comparative active controls included ST voltage changes (J-point, ST area under curve) and a computerized ECG interpretive algorithm (ECGI). Training set of 141 ECGs identified CEB cutoffs by receiver-operating-characteristic (ROC) analysis. Test set of 367 ECGs was analyzed for validation. Poor-quality ECGs were excluded. Sensitivity, specificity, and negative and positive predictive values were calculated with 95% confidence intervals. Adjudication was performed by consensus. Results CEB demonstrated noninferiority to all active controls by hypothesis testing. CEB adjudication demonstrated 85.3–94.4% sensitivity, 92.5–93.0% specificity, 93.8–98.6% negative predictive value, and 74.6–83.5% positive predictive value. CEB was superior against all active controls in EP analysis, and against ST area under curve and ECGI by cardiologist. Conclusion CEB detects acute myocardial ischemic injury with high diagnostic accuracy. CEB is instantly constructed from three ECG leads on the cardiac monitor and displayed instantly allowing immediate cost-effective identification of patients with acute ischemic injury during cardiac rhythm monitoring. PMID:24118724

Improving coordination and integration of observations of Arctic change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perovich, Donald; Payne, John; Eicken, Hajo

2012-10-01

U.S. Arctic Observing Coordination Workshop;Anchorage, Alaska, 20-22 March 2012 The Arctic is undergoing tremendous changes. Permafrost is thawing, ice sheets are melting, and sea ice is thinning and retreating. These changes are impacting ecosystems and human activities. Observing, understanding, and responding to these changes are the central themes of the U.S. Interagency Study of Environmental Arctic Change (SEARCH, http://www.arcus.org/search/index.php). SEARCH brings together academic and government agency scientists and stakeholders to prioritize, plan, conduct, and synthesize research focused on Arctic environmental change. The U.S. Arctic Observing Coordination Workshop (http://www.arcus.org/search/meetings/2012/coordination-workshop/) focused on two key themes for cross-disciplinary and cross-agency collaboration: (1) understanding and predicting sea ice changes and their consequences for ecosystems, human activities, and climate and (2) determining consequences of loss and warming of shallow permafrost on Arctic and global systems.

Novelty response and 50 kHz ultrasonic vocalizations: Differential prediction of locomotor and affective response to amphetamine in Sprague-Dawley rats.

PubMed

Garcia, Erik J; Cain, Mary E

2016-02-01

Novelty and sensation seeking (NSS) predisposes humans and rats to experiment with psychostimulants. In animal models, different tests of NSS predict different phases of drug dependence. Ultrasonic vocalizations (USVs) are evoked by psychomotor stimulants and measure the affective/motivation response to stimuli, yet the role NSS has on USVs in response to amphetamine is not determined. The aim of the present study was to determine if individual differences in NSS and USVs can predict locomotor and USV response to amphetamine (0.0, 0.3, and 1.0 mg/kg) after acute and chronic exposure. Thirty male rats were tested for their response to novelty (IEN), choice to engage in novelty (NPP), and heterospecific play (H-USV). Rats were administered non-contingent amphetamine or saline for seven exposures, and USVs and locomotor activity were measured. After a 14-day rest, rats were administered a challenge dose of amphetamine. Regression analyses indicated that amphetamine dose-dependently increased locomotor activity and the NPP test negatively predicted treatment-induced locomotor activity. The H-USV test predicted treatment-induced frequency-modulated (FM) USVs, but the strength of prediction depended on IEN response. Results provide evidence that locomotor activity and FM USVs induced by amphetamine represent different behavioral responses. The prediction of amphetamine-induced FM USVs by the H-USV screen was changed by the novelty response, indicating that the affective value of amphetamine-measured by FM USVs-depends on novelty response. This provides evidence that higher novelty responders may develop a tolerance faster and may escalate intake faster.

Recent and past musical activity predicts cognitive aging variability: direct comparison with general lifestyle activities.

PubMed

Hanna-Pladdy, Brenda; Gajewski, Byron

2012-01-01

Studies evaluating the impact of modifiable lifestyle factors on cognition offer potential insights into sources of cognitive aging variability. Recently, we reported an association between extent of musical instrumental practice throughout the life span (greater than 10 years) on preserved cognitive functioning in advanced age. These findings raise the question of whether there are training-induced brain changes in musicians that can transfer to non-musical cognitive abilities to allow for compensation of age-related cognitive declines. However, because of the relationship between engagement in general lifestyle activities and preserved cognition, it remains unclear whether these findings are specifically driven by musical training or the types of individuals likely to engage in greater activities in general. The current study controlled for general activity level in evaluating cognition between musicians and nomusicians. Also, the timing of engagement (age of acquisition, past versus recent) was assessed in predictive models of successful cognitive aging. Seventy age and education matched older musicians (>10 years) and non-musicians (ages 59-80) were evaluated on neuropsychological tests and general lifestyle activities. Musicians scored higher on tests of phonemic fluency, verbal working memory, verbal immediate recall, visuospatial judgment, and motor dexterity, but did not differ in other general leisure activities. Partition analyses were conducted on significant cognitive measures to determine aspects of musical training predictive of enhanced cognition. The first partition analysis revealed education best predicted visuospatial functions in musicians, followed by recent musical engagement which offset low education. In the second partition analysis, early age of musical acquisition (<9 years) predicted enhanced verbal working memory in musicians, while analyses for other measures were not predictive. Recent and past musical activity, but not general lifestyle activities, predicted variability across both verbal and visuospatial domains in aging. These findings are suggestive of different use-dependent adaptation periods depending on cognitive domain. Furthermore, they imply that early age of musical acquisition, sustained and maintained during advanced age, may enhance cognitive functions and buffer age and education influences.

From feedback- to response-based performance monitoring in active and observational learning.

PubMed

Bellebaum, Christian; Colosio, Marco

2014-09-01

Humans can adapt their behavior by learning from the consequences of their own actions or by observing others. Gradual active learning of action-outcome contingencies is accompanied by a shift from feedback- to response-based performance monitoring. This shift is reflected by complementary learning-related changes of two ACC-driven ERP components, the feedback-related negativity (FRN) and the error-related negativity (ERN), which have both been suggested to signal events "worse than expected," that is, a negative prediction error. Although recent research has identified comparable components for observed behavior and outcomes (observational ERN and FRN), it is as yet unknown, whether these components are similarly modulated by prediction errors and thus also reflect behavioral adaptation. In this study, two groups of 15 participants learned action-outcome contingencies either actively or by observation. In active learners, FRN amplitude for negative feedback decreased and ERN amplitude in response to erroneous actions increased with learning, whereas observational ERN and FRN in observational learners did not exhibit learning-related changes. Learning performance, assessed in test trials without feedback, was comparable between groups, as was the ERN following actively performed errors during test trials. In summary, the results show that action-outcome associations can be learned similarly well actively and by observation. The mechanisms involved appear to differ, with the FRN in active learning reflecting the integration of information about own actions and the accompanying outcomes.

Identifying risk profiles for childhood obesity using recursive partitioning based on individual, familial, and neighborhood environment factors.

PubMed

Van Hulst, Andraea; Roy-Gagnon, Marie-Hélène; Gauvin, Lise; Kestens, Yan; Henderson, Mélanie; Barnett, Tracie A

2015-02-15

Few studies consider how risk factors within multiple levels of influence operate synergistically to determine childhood obesity. We used recursive partitioning analysis to identify unique combinations of individual, familial, and neighborhood factors that best predict obesity in children, and tested whether these predict 2-year changes in body mass index (BMI). Data were collected in 2005-2008 and in 2008-2011 for 512 Quebec youth (8-10 years at baseline) with a history of parental obesity (QUALITY study). CDC age- and sex-specific BMI percentiles were computed and children were considered obese if their BMI was ≥95th percentile. Individual (physical activity and sugar-sweetened beverage intake), familial (household socioeconomic status and measures of parental obesity including both BMI and waist circumference), and neighborhood (disadvantage, prestige, and presence of parks, convenience stores, and fast food restaurants) factors were examined. Recursive partitioning, a method that generates a classification tree predicting obesity based on combined exposure to a series of variables, was used. Associations between resulting varying risk group membership and BMI percentile at baseline and 2-year follow up were examined using linear regression. Recursive partitioning yielded 7 subgroups with a prevalence of obesity equal to 8%, 11%, 26%, 28%, 41%, 60%, and 63%, respectively. The 2 highest risk subgroups comprised i) children not meeting physical activity guidelines, with at least one BMI-defined obese parent and 2 abdominally obese parents, living in disadvantaged neighborhoods without parks and, ii) children with these characteristics, except with access to ≥1 park and with access to ≥1 convenience store. Group membership was strongly associated with BMI at baseline, but did not systematically predict change in BMI. Findings support the notion that obesity is predicted by multiple factors in different settings and provide some indications of potentially obesogenic environments. Alternate group definitions as well as longer duration of follow up should be investigated to predict change in obesity.

Statistical modelling predicts almost complete loss of major periglacial processes in Northern Europe by 2100.

PubMed

Aalto, Juha; Harrison, Stephan; Luoto, Miska

2017-09-11

The periglacial realm is a major part of the cryosphere, covering a quarter of Earth's land surface. Cryogenic land surface processes (LSPs) control landscape development, ecosystem functioning and climate through biogeochemical feedbacks, but their response to contemporary climate change is unclear. Here, by statistically modelling the current and future distributions of four major LSPs unique to periglacial regions at fine scale, we show fundamental changes in the periglacial climate realm are inevitable with future climate change. Even with the most optimistic CO 2 emissions scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6) we predict a 72% reduction in the current periglacial climate realm by 2050 in our climatically sensitive northern Europe study area. These impacts are projected to be especially severe in high-latitude continental interiors. We further predict that by the end of the twenty-first century active periglacial LSPs will exist only at high elevations. These results forecast a future tipping point in the operation of cold-region LSP, and predict fundamental landscape-level modifications in ground conditions and related atmospheric feedbacks.Cryogenic land surface processes characterise the periglacial realm and control landscape development and ecosystem functioning. Here, via statistical modelling, the authors predict a 72% reduction of the periglacial realm in Northern Europe by 2050, and almost complete disappearance by 2100.

Predicting Return of Fear Following Exposure Therapy With an Implicit Measure of Attitudes

PubMed Central

Vasey, Michael W.; Harbaugh, Casaundra N.; Buffington, Adam G.; Jones, Christopher R.; Fazio, Russell H.

2012-01-01

We sought to advance understanding of the processes underlying the efficacy of exposure therapy and particularly the phenomenon of return of fear (ROF) following treatment by drawing on a social psychological view of phobias as attitudes. Specifically, a dual process theory of attitude-related behavior predicts that a positive response to exposure therapy may reflect change in either the automatic (the attitude representation itself) or controlled (skills and confidence at coping with the fear) responses to the phobic stimulus, or both. However, if the attitude representation remains negative following treatment, ROF should be more likely. We tested this hypothesis in a clinical sample of individuals with public speaking phobia using a single-session exposure therapy protocol previously shown to be efficacious but also associated with some ROF. Consistent with predictions, a post-treatment implicit measure of attitudes toward public speaking (the Personalized Implicit Association Test [PIAT]) predicted ROF at 1-month follow-up. These results suggest that change in the automatically activated attitude toward the phobic stimulus is an important goal of exposure therapy and that an implicit measure like the PIAT can provide a useful measure of such change by which to gauge the adequacy of exposure treatment and predict its long-term efficacy. PMID:23085186

Segmentation in reading and film comprehension.

PubMed

Zacks, Jeffrey M; Speer, Nicole K; Reynolds, Jeremy R

2009-05-01

When reading a story or watching a film, comprehenders construct a series of representations in order to understand the events depicted. Discourse comprehension theories and a recent theory of perceptual event segmentation both suggest that comprehenders monitor situational features such as characters' goals, to update these representations at natural boundaries in activity. However, the converging predictions of these theories had previously not been tested directly. Two studies provided evidence that changes in situational features such as characters, their locations, their interactions with objects, and their goals are related to the segmentation of events in both narrative texts and films. A 3rd study indicated that clauses with event boundaries are read more slowly than are other clauses and that changes in situational features partially mediate this relation. A final study suggested that the predictability of incoming information influences reading rate and possibly event segmentation. Taken together, these results suggest that processing situational changes during comprehension is an important determinant of how one segments ongoing activity into events and that this segmentation is related to the control of processing during reading. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Appraisal and coping as mediators of the effects of cumulative risk on preadolescent adjustment

PubMed Central

Thompson, Stephanie F.; Lengua, Liliana J.; Garcia, Connie Meza

2016-01-01

This study examined the concurrent and longitudinal relations among cumulative risk, appraisal, coping, and adjustment. Longitudinal path models were tested in a community sample of 316 children in preadolescence to examine hypotheses that threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediate the effects of cumulative risk on child adjustment, whereas positive appraisal and active coping were hypothesized to predict better adjustment independently. Children and their mothers were assessed during in-home interviews at three time points at one-year intervals. Children reported on appraisal and coping strategies. Mothers and children reported on child adjustment problems and positive adjustment. Rank-order changes in appraisal and coping predicted rank-order changes in adjustment. Cumulative risk was concurrently related to higher threat appraisal and avoidant coping at each time point. Threat appraisal and avoidant coping mediated the relations of cumulative risk to rank-order changes in adjustment. There is specificity in the relations of cumulative risk to threat appraisal and avoidant coping, whereas positive appraisal and active coping are independent of risk and operate as individual resource factors. PMID:27110087

System Analysis for the Huntsville Operation Support Center, Distributed Computer System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingels, F. M.; Massey, D.

1985-01-01

HOSC as a distributed computing system, is responsible for data acquisition and analysis during Space Shuttle operations. HOSC also provides computing services for Marshall Space Flight Center's nonmission activities. As mission and nonmission activities change, so do the support functions of HOSC change, demonstrating the need for some method of simulating activity at HOSC in various configurations. The simulation developed in this work primarily models the HYPERchannel network. The model simulates the activity of a steady state network, reporting statistics such as, transmitted bits, collision statistics, frame sequences transmitted, and average message delay. These statistics are used to evaluate such performance indicators as throughout, utilization, and delay. Thus the overall performance of the network is evaluated, as well as predicting possible overload conditions.

Predicting active school travel: the role of planned behavior and habit strength.

PubMed

Murtagh, Shemane; Rowe, David A; Elliott, Mark A; McMinn, David; Nelson, Norah M

2012-05-30

Despite strong support for predictive validity of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) substantial variance in both intention and behavior is unaccounted for by the model's predictors. The present study tested the extent to which habit strength augments the predictive validity of the TPB in relation to a currently under-researched behavior that has important health implications, namely children's active school travel. Participants (N = 126 children aged 8-9 years; 59 % males) were sampled from five elementary schools in the west of Scotland and completed questionnaire measures of all TPB constructs in relation to walking to school and both walking and car/bus use habit. Over the subsequent week, commuting steps on school journeys were measured objectively using an accelerometer. Hierarchical multiple regressions were used to test the predictive utility of the TPB and habit strength in relation to both intention and subsequent behavior. The TPB accounted for 41 % and 10 % of the variance in intention and objectively measured behavior, respectively. Together, walking habit and car/bus habit significantly increased the proportion of explained variance in both intention and behavior by 6 %. Perceived behavioral control and both walking and car/bus habit independently predicted intention. Intention and car/bus habit independently predicted behavior. The TPB significantly predicts children's active school travel. However, habit strength augments the predictive validity of the model. The results indicate that school travel is controlled by both intentional and habitual processes. In practice, interventions could usefully decrease the habitual use of motorized transport for travel to school and increase children's intention to walk (via increases in perceived behavioral control and walking habit, and decreases in car/bus habit). Further research is needed to identify effective strategies for changing these antecedents of children's active school travel.

Spectrotemporal dynamics of the EEG during working memory encoding and maintenance predicts individual behavioral capacity.

PubMed

Bashivan, Pouya; Bidelman, Gavin M; Yeasin, Mohammed

2014-12-01

We investigated the effect of memory load on encoding and maintenance of information in working memory. Electroencephalography (EEG) signals were recorded while participants performed a modified Sternberg visual memory task. Independent component analysis (ICA) was used to factorise the EEG signals into distinct temporal activations to perform spectrotemporal analysis and localisation of source activities. We found 'encoding' and 'maintenance' operations were correlated with negative and positive changes in α-band power, respectively. Transient activities were observed during encoding of information in the bilateral cuneus, precuneus, inferior parietal gyrus and fusiform gyrus, and a sustained activity in the inferior frontal gyrus. Strong correlations were also observed between changes in α-power and behavioral performance during both encoding and maintenance. Furthermore, it was also found that individuals with higher working memory capacity experienced stronger neural oscillatory responses during the encoding of visual objects into working memory. Our results suggest an interplay between two distinct neural pathways and different spatiotemporal operations during the encoding and maintenance of information which predict individual differences in working memory capacity observed at the behavioral level. © 2014 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predicting future spatial distribution of SOC across entire France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meersmans, Jeroen; Van Rompaey, Anton; Quine, Tim; Martin, Manuel; Pagé, Christian; Arrouays, Dominique

2013-04-01

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is widely recognized as a key factor controlling soil quality and as a crucial and active component of the global C-cycle. Hence, there exists a growing interest in monitoring and modeling the spatial and temporal behavior of this pool. So far, a large attempt has been made to map SOC at national scales for current and/or past situations. Despite some coarse predictions, detailed spatial SOC predictions for the future are still lacking. In this study we aim to predict future spatial evolution of SOC driven by climate and land use change for France up to the year 2100. Therefore, we combined 1) an existing model, predicting SOC as a function of soil type, climate, land use and management (Meersmans et al 2012), with 2) eight different IPCC spatial explicit climate change predictions (conducted by CERFACS) and 3) Land use change scenario predictions. We created business-as-usual land use change scenarios by extrapolating observed trends and calibrating logistic regression models, incorporating a large set of physical and socio-economic factors, at the regional level in combination with a multi-objective land allocation (MOLA) procedure. The resultant detailed projections of future SOC evolution across all regions of France, allow us to identify regions that are most likely to be characterized by a significant gain or loss of SOC and the degree to which land use decisions/outcomes control the scale of loss and gain. Therefore, this methodology and resulting maps can be considered as powerful tools to aid decision making concerning appropriate soil management, in order to enlarge SOC storage possibilities and reduce soil related CO2 fluxes.

Self-determination, control, and reactions to changes in workload: a work simulation.

PubMed

Parker, Stacey L; Jimmieson, Nerina L; Amiot, Catherine E

2013-04-01

The objective of this experimental study is to capture the dynamic temporal processes that occur in changing work settings and to test how work control and individuals' motivational predispositions interact to predict reactions to these changes. To this aim, we examine the moderating effects of global self-determined and non-self-determined motivation, at different levels of work control, on participants' adaptation and stress reactivity to changes in workload during four trials of an inbox activity. Workload was increased or decreased at Trial 3, and adaptation to this change was examined via fluctuations in anxiety, coping, motivation, and performance. In support of the hypotheses, results revealed that, for non-self-determined individuals, low work control was stress-buffering and high work control was stress-exacerbating when predicting anxiety and intrinsic motivation. In contrast, for self-determined individuals, high work control facilitated the adaptive use of planning coping in response to a change in workload. Overall, this pattern of results demonstrates that, while high work control was anxiety-provoking and demotivating for non-self-determined individuals, self-determined individuals used high work control to implement an adaptive antecedent-focused emotion regulation strategy (i.e., planning coping) to meet situational demands. Other interactive effects of global motivation emerged on anxiety, active coping, and task performance. These results and their practical implications are discussed.

Birth weight predicted baseline muscular efficiency, but not response of energy expenditure to calorie restriction: An empirical test of the predictive adaptive response hypothesis.

PubMed

Workman, Megan; Baker, Jack; Lancaster, Jane B; Mermier, Christine; Alcock, Joe

2016-07-01

Aiming to test the evolutionary significance of relationships linking prenatal growth conditions to adult phenotypes, this study examined whether birth size predicts energetic savings during fasting. We specifically tested a Predictive Adaptive Response (PAR) model that predicts greater energetic saving among adults who were born small. Data were collected from a convenience sample of young adults living in Albuquerque, NM (n = 34). Indirect calorimetry quantified changes in resting energy expenditure (REE) and active muscular efficiency that occurred in response to a 29-h fast. Multiple regression analyses linked birth weight to baseline and postfast metabolic values while controlling for appropriate confounders (e.g., sex, body mass). Birth weight did not moderate the relationship between body size and energy expenditure, nor did it predict the magnitude change in REE or muscular efficiency observed from baseline to after fasting. Alternative indicators of birth size were also examined (e.g., low v. normal birth weight, comparison of tertiles), with no effects found. However, baseline muscular efficiency improved by 1.1% per 725 g (S.D.) increase in birth weight (P = 0.037). Birth size did not influence the sensitivity of metabolic demands to fasting-neither at rest nor during activity. Moreover, small birth size predicted a reduction in the efficiency with which muscles convert energy expended into work accomplished. These results do not support the ascription of adaptive function to phenotypes associated with small birth size. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 28:484-492, 2016. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Lateralization in Alpha-Band Oscillations Predicts the Locus and Spatial Distribution of Attention

PubMed Central

Ikkai, Akiko; Dandekar, Sangita; Curtis, Clayton E.

2016-01-01

Attending to a task-relevant location changes how neural activity oscillates in the alpha band (8–13Hz) in posterior visual cortical areas. However, a clear understanding of the relationships between top-down attention, changes in alpha oscillations in visual cortex, and attention performance are still poorly understood. Here, we tested the degree to which the posterior alpha power tracked the locus of attention, the distribution of attention, and how well the topography of alpha could predict the locus of attention. We recorded magnetoencephalographic (MEG) data while subjects performed an attention demanding visual discrimination task that dissociated the direction of attention from the direction of a saccade to indicate choice. On some trials, an endogenous cue predicted the target’s location, while on others it contained no spatial information. When the target’s location was cued, alpha power decreased in sensors over occipital cortex contralateral to the attended visual field. When the cue did not predict the target’s location, alpha power again decreased in sensors over occipital cortex, but bilaterally, and increased in sensors over frontal cortex. Thus, the distribution and the topography of alpha reliably indicated the locus of covert attention. Together, these results suggest that alpha synchronization reflects changes in the excitability of populations of neurons whose receptive fields match the locus of attention. This is consistent with the hypothesis that alpha oscillations reflect the neural mechanisms by which top-down control of attention biases information processing and modulate the activity of neurons in visual cortex. PMID:27144717

Sustained anterior cingulate cortex activation during reward processing predicts response to psychotherapy in major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Carl, Hannah; Walsh, Erin; Eisenlohr-Moul, Tory; Minkel, Jared; Crowther, Andrew; Moore, Tyler; Gibbs, Devin; Petty, Chris; Bizzell, Josh; Dichter, Gabriel S; Smoski, Moria J

2016-10-01

The purpose of the present investigation was to evaluate whether pre-treatment neural activation in response to rewards is a predictor of clinical response to Behavioral Activation Therapy for Depression (BATD), an empirically validated psychotherapy that decreases depressive symptoms by increasing engagement with rewarding stimuli and reducing avoidance behaviors. Participants were 33 outpatients with major depressive disorder (MDD) and 20 matched controls. We examined group differences in activation, and the capacity to sustain activation, across task runs using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and the monetary incentive delay (MID) task. Hierarchical linear modeling was used to investigate whether pre-treatment neural responses predicted change in depressive symptoms over the course of BATD treatment. MDD and Control groups differed in sustained activation during reward outcomes in the right nucleus accumbens, such that the MDD group experienced a significant decrease in activation in this region from the first to second task run relative to controls. Pretreatment anhedonia severity and pretreatment task-related reaction times were predictive of response to treatment. Furthermore, sustained activation in the anterior cingulate cortex during reward outcomes predicted response to psychotherapy; patients with greater sustained activation in this region were more responsive to BATD treatment. The current study only included a single treatment condition, thus it unknown whether these predictors of treatment response are specific to BATD or psychotherapy in general. Findings add to the growing body of literature suggesting that the capacity to sustain neural responses to rewards may be a critical endophenotype of MDD. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Changing Summer Precipitation Pattern Alters Microbial Community Response to Fall Wet-up in a Mediterranean Soil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnard, R. L.; Osborne, C. A.; Firestone, M. K.

2014-12-01

The large soil CO2 efflux associated with rewetting dry soils after the dry summer period significantly contributes to the annual carbon budget of Mediterranean grasslands. Rapid reactivation of soil heterotrophic activity and a pulse of available carbon are both required to fuel the CO2 pulse. Better understanding of the effects of altered summer precipitation on the metabolic state of indigenous microorganisms may be important in predicting future changes in carbon cycling. Here, we investigated the effects of a controlled rewetting event on the soil CO2 efflux pulse and on the present (DNA-based) and potentially active (rRNA-based) soil bacterial and fungal communities in intact soil cores previously subjected to three different precipitation patterns over four months (full summer dry season, extended wet season, and absent dry season). Phylogenetic marker genes for bacteria (16S) and fungi (28S) were sequenced before and after rewetting, and the abundance of these genes and transcripts was measured. Even after having experienced markedly different antecedent water conditions, the potentially active bacterial communities showed a consistent wet-up response. Moreover, we found a significant positive relation between the extent of change in the structure of the potentially active bacterial community and the magnitude of the CO2 pulse upon rewetting dry soils. We suggest that the duration of severe dry conditions (predicted to change under future climate) is important in conditioning the response potential of the soil bacterial community to wet-up as well as in framing the magnitude of the associated CO2 pulse.

Cofilin-Linked Changes in Actin Filament Flexibility Promote Severing

PubMed Central

McCullough, Brannon R.; Grintsevich, Elena E.; Chen, Christine K.; Kang, Hyeran; Hutchison, Alan L.; Henn, Arnon; Cao, Wenxiang; Suarez, Cristian; Martiel, Jean-Louis; Blanchoin, Laurent; Reisler, Emil; De La Cruz, Enrique M.

2011-01-01

The actin regulatory protein, cofilin, increases the bending and twisting elasticity of actin filaments and severs them. It has been proposed that filaments partially decorated with cofilin accumulate stress from thermally driven shape fluctuations at bare (stiff) and decorated (compliant) boundaries, thereby promoting severing. This mechanics-based severing model predicts that changes in actin filament compliance due to cofilin binding affect severing activity. Here, we test this prediction by evaluating how the severing activities of vertebrate and yeast cofilactin scale with the flexural rigidities determined from analysis of shape fluctuations. Yeast actin filaments are more compliant in bending than vertebrate actin filaments. Severing activities of cofilactin isoforms correlate with changes in filament flexibility. Vertebrate cofilin binds but does not increase the yeast actin filament flexibility, and does not sever them. Imaging of filament thermal fluctuations reveals that severing events are associated with local bending and fragmentation when deformations attain a critical angle. The critical severing angle at boundaries between bare and cofilin-decorated segments is smaller than in bare or fully decorated filaments. These measurements support a cofilin-severing mechanism in which mechanical asymmetry promotes local stress accumulation and fragmentation at boundaries of bare and cofilin-decorated segments, analogous to failure of some nonprotein materials. PMID:21723825

Key Process Uncertainties in Soil Carbon Dynamics: Comparing Multiple Model Structures and Observational Meta-analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sulman, B. N.; Moore, J.; Averill, C.; Abramoff, R. Z.; Bradford, M.; Classen, A. T.; Hartman, M. D.; Kivlin, S. N.; Luo, Y.; Mayes, M. A.; Morrison, E. W.; Riley, W. J.; Salazar, A.; Schimel, J.; Sridhar, B.; Tang, J.; Wang, G.; Wieder, W. R.

2016-12-01

Soil carbon (C) dynamics are crucial to understanding and predicting C cycle responses to global change and soil C modeling is a key tool for understanding these dynamics. While first order model structures have historically dominated this area, a recent proliferation of alternative model structures representing different assumptions about microbial activity and mineral protection is providing new opportunities to explore process uncertainties related to soil C dynamics. We conducted idealized simulations of soil C responses to warming and litter addition using models from five research groups that incorporated different sets of assumptions about processes governing soil C decomposition and stabilization. We conducted a meta-analysis of published warming and C addition experiments for comparison with simulations. Assumptions related to mineral protection and microbial dynamics drove strong differences among models. In response to C additions, some models predicted long-term C accumulation while others predicted transient increases that were counteracted by accelerating decomposition. In experimental manipulations, doubling litter addition did not change soil C stocks in studies spanning as long as two decades. This result agreed with simulations from models with strong microbial growth responses and limited mineral sorption capacity. In observations, warming initially drove soil C loss via increased CO2 production, but in some studies soil C rebounded and increased over decadal time scales. In contrast, all models predicted sustained C losses under warming. The disagreement with experimental results could be explained by physiological or community-level acclimation, or by warming-related changes in plant growth. In addition to the role of microbial activity, assumptions related to mineral sorption and protected C played a key role in driving long-term model responses. In general, simulations were similar in their initial responses to perturbations but diverged over decadal time scales. This suggests that more long-term soil experiments may be necessary to resolve important process uncertainties related to soil C storage. We also suggest future experiments examine how microbial activity responds to warming under a range of soil clay contents and in concert with changes in litter inputs.

Attributing runoff changes to climate variability and human activities: uncertainty analysis using four monthly water balance models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Shuai; Xiong, Lihua; Li, Hong-Yi

2015-05-26

Hydrological simulations to delineate the impacts of climate variability and human activities are subjected to uncertainties related to both parameter and structure of the hydrological models. To analyze the impact of these uncertainties on the model performance and to yield more reliable simulation results, a global calibration and multimodel combination method that integrates the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis (SCEM) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of four monthly water balance models was proposed. The method was applied to the Weihe River Basin (WRB), the largest tributary of the Yellow River, to determine the contribution of climate variability and human activities tomore » runoff changes. The change point, which was used to determine the baseline period (1956-1990) and human-impacted period (1991-2009), was derived using both cumulative curve and Pettitt’s test. Results show that the combination method from SCEM provides more skillful deterministic predictions than the best calibrated individual model, resulting in the smallest uncertainty interval of runoff changes attributed to climate variability and human activities. This combination methodology provides a practical and flexible tool for attribution of runoff changes to climate variability and human activities by hydrological models.« less

Neural substrates of visuomotor learning based on improved feedback control and prediction

PubMed Central

Grafton, Scott T.; Schmitt, Paul; Horn, John Van; Diedrichsen, Jörn

2008-01-01

Motor skills emerge from learning feedforward commands as well as improvements in feedback control. These two components of learning were investigated in a compensatory visuomotor tracking task on a trial-by-trial basis. Between trial learning was characterized with a state-space model to provide smoothed estimates of feedforward and feedback learning, separable from random fluctuations in motor performance and error. The resultant parameters were correlated with brain activity using magnetic resonance imaging. Learning related to the generation of a feedforward command correlated with activity in dorsal premotor cortex, inferior parietal lobule, supplementary motor area and cingulate motor area, supporting a role of these areas in retrieving and executing a predictive motor command. Modulation of feedback control was associated with activity in bilateral posterior superior parietal lobule as well as right ventral premotor cortex. Performance error correlated with activity in a widespread cortical and subcortical network including bilateral parietal, premotor and rostral anterior cingulate cortex as well as the cerebellar cortex. Finally, trial-by-trial changes of kinematics, as measured by mean absolute hand acceleration, correlated with activity in motor cortex and anterior cerebellum. The results demonstrate that incremental, learning dependent changes can be modeled on a trial-by-trial basis and neural substrates for feedforward control of novel motor programs are localized to secondary motor areas. PMID:18032069

Computational identification of post-translational modification-based nuclear import regulations by characterizing nuclear localization signal-import receptor interaction.

PubMed

Lin, Jhih-Rong; Liu, Zhonghao; Hu, Jianjun

2014-10-01

The binding affinity between a nuclear localization signal (NLS) and its import receptor is closely related to corresponding nuclear import activity. PTM-based modulation of the NLS binding affinity to the import receptor is one of the most understood mechanisms to regulate nuclear import of proteins. However, identification of such regulation mechanisms is challenging due to the difficulty of assessing the impact of PTM on corresponding nuclear import activities. In this study we proposed NIpredict, an effective algorithm to predict nuclear import activity given its NLS, in which molecular interaction energy components (MIECs) were used to characterize the NLS-import receptor interaction, and the support vector regression machine (SVR) was used to learn the relationship between the characterized NLS-import receptor interaction and the corresponding nuclear import activity. Our experiments showed that nuclear import activity change due to NLS change could be accurately predicted by the NIpredict algorithm. Based on NIpredict, we developed a systematic framework to identify potential PTM-based nuclear import regulations for human and yeast nuclear proteins. Application of this approach has identified the potential nuclear import regulation mechanisms by phosphorylation of two nuclear proteins including SF1 and ORC6. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Hippocampus activation related to 'real-time' processing of visuospatial change.

PubMed

Beudel, M; Leenders, K L; de Jong, B M

2016-12-01

The delay associated with cerebral processing time implies a lack of real-time representation of changes in the observed environment. To bridge this gap for motor actions in a dynamical environment, the brain uses predictions of the most plausible future reality based on previously provided information. To optimise these predictions, adjustments to actual experiences are necessary. This requires a perceptual memory buffer. In our study we gained more insight how the brain treats (real-time) information by comparing cerebral activations related to judging past-, present- and future locations of a moving ball, respectively. Eighteen healthy subjects made these estimations while fMRI data was obtained. All three conditions evoked bilateral dorsal-parietal and premotor activations, while judgment of the location of the ball at the moment of judgment showed increased bilateral posterior hippocampus activation relative to making both future and past judgments at the one-second time-sale. Since the condition of such 'real-time' judgments implied undistracted observation of the ball's actual movements, the associated hippocampal activation is consistent with the concept that the hippocampus participates in a top-down exerted sensory gating mechanism. In this way, it may play a role in novelty (saliency) detection. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Mirror neuron activation as a function of explicit learning: changes in mu-event-related power after learning novel responses to ideomotor compatible, partially compatible, and non-compatible stimuli.

PubMed

Behmer, Lawrence P; Fournier, Lisa R

2016-11-01

Questions regarding the malleability of the mirror neuron system (MNS) continue to be debated. MNS activation has been reported when people observe another person performing biological goal-directed behaviors, such as grasping a cup. These findings support the importance of mapping goal-directed biological behavior onto one's motor repertoire as a means of understanding the actions of others. Still, other evidence supports the Associative Sequence Learning (ASL) model which predicts that the MNS responds to a variety of stimuli after sensorimotor learning, not simply biological behavior. MNS activity develops as a consequence of developing stimulus-response associations between a stimulus and its motor outcome. Findings from the ideomotor literature indicate that stimuli that are more ideomotor compatible with a response are accompanied by an increase in response activation compared to less compatible stimuli; however, non-compatible stimuli robustly activate a constituent response after sensorimotor learning. Here, we measured changes in the mu-rhythm, an EEG marker thought to index MNS activity, predicting that stimuli that differ along dimensions of ideomotor compatibility should show changes in mirror neuron activation as participants learn the respective stimulus-response associations. We observed robust mu-suppression for ideomotor-compatible hand actions and partially compatible dot animations prior to learning; however, compatible stimuli showed greater mu-suppression than partially or non-compatible stimuli after explicit learning. Additionally, non-compatible abstract stimuli exceeded baseline only after participants explicitly learned the motor responses associated with the stimuli. We conclude that the empirical differences between the biological and ASL accounts of the MNS can be explained by Ideomotor Theory. © 2016 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Comparison of RF spectrum prediction methods for dynamic spectrum access

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovarskiy, Jacob A.; Martone, Anthony F.; Gallagher, Kyle A.; Sherbondy, Kelly D.; Narayanan, Ram M.

2017-05-01

Dynamic spectrum access (DSA) refers to the adaptive utilization of today's busy electromagnetic spectrum. Cognitive radio/radar technologies require DSA to intelligently transmit and receive information in changing environments. Predicting radio frequency (RF) activity reduces sensing time and energy consumption for identifying usable spectrum. Typical spectrum prediction methods involve modeling spectral statistics with Hidden Markov Models (HMM) or various neural network structures. HMMs describe the time-varying state probabilities of Markov processes as a dynamic Bayesian network. Neural Networks model biological brain neuron connections to perform a wide range of complex and often non-linear computations. This work compares HMM, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) algorithms and their ability to perform RF channel state prediction. Monte Carlo simulations on both measured and simulated spectrum data evaluate the performance of these algorithms. Generalizing spectrum occupancy as an alternating renewal process allows Poisson random variables to generate simulated data while energy detection determines the occupancy state of measured RF spectrum data for testing. The results suggest that neural networks achieve better prediction accuracy and prove more adaptable to changing spectral statistics than HMMs given sufficient training data.

Inhalation Frequency Controls Reformatting of Mitral/Tufted Cell Odor Representations in the Olfactory Bulb.

PubMed

Díaz-Quesada, Marta; Youngstrom, Isaac A; Tsuno, Yusuke; Hansen, Kyle R; Economo, Michael N; Wachowiak, Matt

2018-02-28

In mammals, olfactory sensation depends on inhalation, which controls activation of sensory neurons and temporal patterning of central activity. Odor representations by mitral and tufted (MT) cells, the main output from the olfactory bulb (OB), reflect sensory input as well as excitation and inhibition from OB circuits, which may change as sniff frequency increases. To test the impact of sampling frequency on MT cell odor responses, we obtained whole-cell recordings from MT cells in anesthetized male and female mice while varying inhalation frequency via tracheotomy, allowing comparison of inhalation-linked responses across cells. We characterized frequency effects on MT cell responses during inhalation of air and odorants using inhalation pulses and also "playback" of sniffing recorded from awake mice. Inhalation-linked changes in membrane potential were well predicted across frequency from linear convolution of 1 Hz responses; and, as frequency increased, near-identical temporal responses could emerge from depolarizing, hyperpolarizing, or multiphasic MT responses. However, net excitation was not well predicted from 1 Hz responses and varied substantially across MT cells, with some cells increasing and others decreasing in spike rate. As a result, sustained odorant sampling at higher frequencies led to increasing decorrelation of the MT cell population response pattern over time. Bulk activation of sensory inputs by optogenetic stimulation affected MT cells more uniformly across frequency, suggesting that frequency-dependent decorrelation emerges from odor-specific patterns of activity in the OB network. These results suggest that sampling behavior alone can reformat early sensory representations, possibly to optimize sensory perception during repeated sampling. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Olfactory sensation in mammals depends on inhalation, which increases in frequency during active sampling of olfactory stimuli. We asked how inhalation frequency can shape the neural coding of odor information by recording from projection neurons of the olfactory bulb while artificially varying odor sampling frequency in the anesthetized mouse. We found that sampling an odor at higher frequencies led to diverse changes in net responsiveness, as measured by action potential output, that were not predicted from low-frequency responses. These changes led to a reorganization of the pattern of neural activity evoked by a given odorant that occurred preferentially during sustained, high-frequency inhalation. These results point to a novel mechanism for modulating early sensory representations solely as a function of sampling behavior. Copyright © 2018 the authors 0270-6474/18/382189-18$15.00/0.

An ecophysiological perspective on likely giant panda habitat responses to climate change.

PubMed

Zhang, Yuke; Mathewson, Paul D; Zhang, Qiongyue; Porter, Warren P; Ran, Jianghong

2018-04-01

Threatened and endangered species are more vulnerable to climate change due to small population and specific geographical distribution. Therefore, identifying and incorporating the biological processes underlying a species' adaptation to its environment are important for determining whether they can persist in situ. Correlative models are widely used to predict species' distribution changes, but generally fail to capture the buffering capacity of organisms. Giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) live in topographically complex mountains and are known to avoid heat stress. Although many studies have found that climate change will lead to severe habitat loss and threaten previous conservation efforts, the mechanisms underlying panda's responses to climate change have not been explored. Here, we present a case study in Daxiangling Mountains, one of the six Mountain Systems that giant panda distributes. We used a mechanistic model, Niche Mapper, to explore what are likely panda habitat response to climate change taking physiological, behavioral and ecological responses into account, through which we map panda's climatic suitable activity area (SAA) for the first time. We combined SAA with bamboo forest distribution to yield highly suitable habitat (HSH) and seasonal suitable habitat (SSH), and their temporal dynamics under climate change were predicted. In general, SAA in the hottest month (July) would reduce 11.7%-52.2% by 2070, which is more moderate than predicted bamboo habitat loss (45.6%-86.9%). Limited by the availability of bamboo and forest, panda's suitable habitat loss increases, and only 15.5%-68.8% of current HSH would remain in 2070. Our method of mechanistic modeling can help to distinguish whether habitat loss is caused by thermal environmental deterioration or food loss under climate change. Furthermore, mechanistic models can produce robust predictions by incorporating ecophysiological feedbacks and minimizing extrapolation into novel environments. We suggest that a mechanistic approach should be incorporated into distribution predictions and conservation planning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

AUTO-MUTE 2.0: A Portable Framework with Enhanced Capabilities for Predicting Protein Functional Consequences upon Mutation.

PubMed

Masso, Majid; Vaisman, Iosif I

2014-01-01

The AUTO-MUTE 2.0 stand-alone software package includes a collection of programs for predicting functional changes to proteins upon single residue substitutions, developed by combining structure-based features with trained statistical learning models. Three of the predictors evaluate changes to protein stability upon mutation, each complementing a distinct experimental approach. Two additional classifiers are available, one for predicting activity changes due to residue replacements and the other for determining the disease potential of mutations associated with nonsynonymous single nucleotide polymorphisms (nsSNPs) in human proteins. These five command-line driven tools, as well as all the supporting programs, complement those that run our AUTO-MUTE web-based server. Nevertheless, all the codes have been rewritten and substantially altered for the new portable software, and they incorporate several new features based on user feedback. Included among these upgrades is the ability to perform three highly requested tasks: to run "big data" batch jobs; to generate predictions using modified protein data bank (PDB) structures, and unpublished personal models prepared using standard PDB file formatting; and to utilize NMR structure files that contain multiple models.

Dismissing Attachment Characteristics Dynamically Modulate Brain Networks Subserving Social Aversion.

PubMed

Krause, Anna Linda; Borchardt, Viola; Li, Meng; van Tol, Marie-José; Demenescu, Liliana Ramona; Strauss, Bernhard; Kirchmann, Helmut; Buchheim, Anna; Metzger, Coraline D; Nolte, Tobias; Walter, Martin

2016-01-01

Attachment patterns influence actions, thoughts and feeling through a person's "inner working model". Speech charged with attachment-dependent content was proposed to modulate the activation of cognitive-emotional schemata in listeners. We performed a 7 Tesla rest-task-rest functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)-experiment, presenting auditory narratives prototypical of dismissing attachment representations to investigate their effect on 23 healthy males. We then examined effects of participants' attachment style and childhood trauma on brain state changes using seed-based functional connectivity (FC) analyses, and finally tested whether subjective differences in responsivity to narratives could be predicted by baseline network states. In comparison to a baseline state, we observed increased FC in a previously described "social aversion network" including dorsal anterior cingulated cortex (dACC) and left anterior middle temporal gyrus (aMTG) specifically after exposure to insecure-dismissing attachment narratives. Increased dACC-seeded FC within the social aversion network was positively related to the participants' avoidant attachment style and presence of a history of childhood trauma. Anxious attachment style on the other hand was positively correlated with FC between the dACC and a region outside of the "social aversion network", namely the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex, which suggests decreased network segregation as a function of anxious attachment. Finally, the extent of subjective experience of friendliness towards the dismissing narrative was predicted by low baseline FC-values between hippocampus and inferior parietal lobule (IPL). Taken together, our study demonstrates an activation of networks related to social aversion in terms of increased connectivity after listening to insecure-dismissing attachment narratives. A causal interrelation of brain state changes and subsequent changes in social reactivity was further supported by our observation of direct prediction of neuronal responses by individual attachment and trauma characteristics and reversely prediction of subjective experience by intrinsic functional connections. We consider these findings of activation of within-network and between-network connectivity modulated by inter-individual differences as substantial for the understanding of interpersonal processes, particularly in clinical settings.

Can Mapping Algorithms Based on Raw Scores Overestimate QALYs Gained by Treatment? A Comparison of Mappings Between the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire and the EQ-5D-3L Based on Raw and Differenced Score Data.

PubMed

Madan, Jason; Khan, Kamran A; Petrou, Stavros; Lamb, Sarah E

2017-05-01

Mapping algorithms are increasingly being used to predict health-utility values based on responses or scores from non-preference-based measures, thereby informing economic evaluations. We explored whether predictions in the EuroQol 5-dimension 3-level instrument (EQ-5D-3L) health-utility gains from mapping algorithms might differ if estimated using differenced versus raw scores, using the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMQ), a widely used health status measure for low back pain, as an example. We estimated algorithms mapping within-person changes in RMQ scores to changes in EQ-5D-3L health utilities using data from two clinical trials with repeated observations. We also used logistic regression models to estimate response mapping algorithms from these data to predict within-person changes in responses to each EQ-5D-3L dimension from changes in RMQ scores. Predicted health-utility gains from these mappings were compared with predictions based on raw RMQ data. Using differenced scores reduced the predicted health-utility gain from a unit decrease in RMQ score from 0.037 (standard error [SE] 0.001) to 0.020 (SE 0.002). Analysis of response mapping data suggests that the use of differenced data reduces the predicted impact of reducing RMQ scores across EQ-5D-3L dimensions and that patients can experience health-utility gains on the EQ-5D-3L 'usual activity' dimension independent from improvements captured by the RMQ. Mappings based on raw RMQ data overestimate the EQ-5D-3L health utility gains from interventions that reduce RMQ scores. Where possible, mapping algorithms should reflect within-person changes in health outcome and be estimated from datasets containing repeated observations if they are to be used to estimate incremental health-utility gains.

Self-regulation of Exercise Behavior in the TIGER Study

PubMed Central

Dishman, Rod K.; Jackson, Andrew S.; Bray, Molly S.

2014-01-01

Objective To test experiential and behavioral processes of change as mediators of the prediction of exercise behavior by two self-regulation traits, self-efficacy and self-motivation, while controlling for exercise enjoyment. Methods Structural equation modeling was applied to questionnaire responses obtained from a diverse sample of participants. Objective measures defined adherence (928 of 1279 participants attended 80% or more of sessions) and compliance (867 of 1145 participants exercised 30 minutes or more each session at their prescribed heart rate). Results Prediction of attendance by self-efficacy (inversely) and self-motivation was direct and also indirect, mediated through positive relations with the typical use of behavioral change processes. Enjoyment and self-efficacy (inversely) predicted compliance with the exercise prescription. Conclusions The results support the usefulness of self-regulatory behavioral processes of the Transtheoretical Model for predicting exercise adherence, but not compliance, extending the supportive evidence for self-regulation beyond self-reports of physical activity used in prior observational studies. PMID:24311018

Developing Landscape Level Indicators for Predicting Watershed Condition

EPA Science Inventory

Drainage basins (watersheds) exert a strong influence on the condition of water bodies such as streams and lakes. Watersheds and associated aquatic systems respond differently to stressors (e.g., land use change) or restoration activities depending on the climatic setting, bedroc...

Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horton, Radley M.; Bader, Daniel A.; Rosenzweig, Cynthia; DeGaetano, Arthur T.; Solecki, William

2014-01-01

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

Using Smartphones to Monitor Bipolar Disorder Symptoms: A Pilot Study

PubMed Central

Kindermann, Sally; Maier, Andreas; Kerl, Christopher; Moock, Jörn; Barbian, Guido; Rössler, Wulf

2016-01-01

Background Relapse prevention in bipolar disorder can be improved by monitoring symptoms in patients' daily life. Smartphone apps are easy-to-use, low-cost tools that can be used to assess this information. To date, few studies have examined the usefulness of smartphone data for monitoring symptoms in bipolar disorder. Objective We present results from a pilot test of a smartphone-based monitoring system, Social Information Monitoring for Patients with Bipolar Affective Disorder (SIMBA), that tracked daily mood, physical activity, and social communication in 13 patients. The objective of this study was to investigate whether smartphone measurements predicted clinical symptoms levels and clinical symptom change. The hypotheses that smartphone measurements are (1) negatively related to clinical depressive symptoms and (2) positively related to clinical manic symptoms were tested. Methods Clinical rating scales were administered to assess clinical depressive and manic symptoms. Patients used a smartphone with the monitoring app for up to 12 months. Random-coefficient multilevel models were computed to analyze the relationship between smartphone data and externally rated manic and depressive symptoms. Overall clinical symptom levels and clinical symptom changes were predicted by separating between-patient and within-patient effects. Using established clinical thresholds from the literature, marginal effect plots displayed clinical relevance of smartphone data. Results Overall symptom levels and change in clinical symptoms were related to smartphone measures. Higher overall levels of clinical depressive symptoms were predicted by lower self-reported mood measured by the smartphone (beta=-.56, P<.001). An increase in clinical depressive symptoms was predicted by a decline in social communication (ie, outgoing text messages: beta=-.28, P<.001) and a decline in physical activity as measured by the smartphone (ie, cell tower movements: beta=-.11, P=.03). Higher overall levels of clinical manic symptoms were predicted by lower physical activity on the smartphone (ie, distance travelled: beta=-.37, P<.001), and higher social communication (beta=.48, P=.03). An increase in clinical manic symptoms was predicted by a decrease in physical activity on the smartphone (beta=-.17, P<.001). Conclusions Clinical symptoms were related to some objective and subjective smartphone measurements, but not all smartphone measures predicted the occurrence of bipolar symptoms above clinical thresholds. Thus, smartphones have the potential to monitor bipolar disorder symptoms in patients’ daily life. Further validation of monitoring tools in a larger sample is needed. Conclusions are limited by the low prevalence of manic and depressive symptoms in the study sample. Trial Registration International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 05663421; http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN05663421 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6d9wsibJB) PMID:26740354

Testing multi-theory model (MTM) in predicting initiation and sustenance of physical activity behavior among college students.

PubMed

Nahar, Vinayak K; Sharma, Manoj; Catalano, Hannah Priest; Ickes, Melinda J; Johnson, Paul; Ford, M Allison

2016-01-01

Most college students do not adequately participate in enough physical activity (PA) to attain health benefits. A theory-based approach is critical in developing effective interventions to promote PA. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of the newly proposed multi-theory model (MTM) of health behavior change in predicting initiation and sustenance of PA among college students. Using a cross-sectional design, a valid and reliable survey was administered in October 2015 electronically to students enrolled at a large Southern US University. The internal consistency Cronbach alphas of the subscales were acceptable (0.65-0.92). Only those who did not engage in more than 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity aerobic PA during the past week were included in this study. Of the 495 respondents, 190 met the inclusion criteria of which 141 completed the survey. The majority of participants were females (72.3%) and Caucasians (70.9%). Findings of the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed construct validity of subscales (initiation model: χ2 = 253.92 [df = 143], P < 0.001, CFI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.07, SRMR = 0.07; sustenance model: χ2= 19.40 [df = 22], P < 0.001, CFI = 1.00, RMSEA = 0.00, SRMR = 0.03). Multivariate regression analysis showed that 26% of the variance in the PA initiation was explained by advantages outweighing disadvantages, behavioral confidence, work status, and changes in physical environment. Additionally, 29.7% of the variance in PA sustenance was explained by emotional transformation, practice for change, and changes in social environment. Based on this study's findings, MTM appears to be a robust theoretical framework for predicting PA behavior change. Future research directions and development of suitable intervention strategies are discussed.

Testing multi-theory model (MTM) in predicting initiation and sustenance of physical activity behavior among college students

PubMed Central

Nahar, Vinayak K.; Sharma, Manoj; Catalano, Hannah Priest; Ickes, Melinda J.; Johnson, Paul; Ford, M. Allison

2016-01-01

Background: Most college students do not adequately participate in enough physical activity (PA) to attain health benefits. A theory-based approach is critical in developing effective interventions to promote PA. The purpose of this study was to examine the utility of the newly proposed multi-theory model (MTM) of health behavior change in predicting initiation and sustenance of PA among college students. Methods: Using a cross-sectional design, a valid and reliable survey was administered in October 2015 electronically to students enrolled at a large Southern US University. The internal consistency Cronbach alphas of the subscales were acceptable (0.65-0.92). Only those who did not engage in more than 150 minutes of moderate to vigorous intensity aerobic PA during the past week were included in this study. Results: Of the 495 respondents, 190 met the inclusion criteria of which 141 completed the survey. The majority of participants were females (72.3%) and Caucasians (70.9%). Findings of the confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) confirmed construct validity of subscales (initiation model: χ2 = 253.92 [df = 143], P < 0.001, CFI = 0.91, RMSEA = 0.07, SRMR = 0.07; sustenance model: χ2= 19.40 [df = 22], P < 0.001, CFI = 1.00, RMSEA = 0.00, SRMR = 0.03). Multivariate regression analysis showed that 26% of the variance in the PA initiation was explained by advantages outweighing disadvantages, behavioral confidence, work status, and changes in physical environment. Additionally, 29.7% of the variance in PA sustenance was explained by emotional transformation, practice for change, and changes in social environment. Conclusion: Based on this study’s findings, MTM appears to be a robust theoretical framework for predicting PA behavior change. Future research directions and development of suitable intervention strategies are discussed. PMID:27386419

Operant Conditioning of Primate Prefrontal Neurons

PubMed Central

Schultz, Wolfram; Sakagami, Masamichi

2010-01-01

An operant is a behavioral act that has an impact on the environment to produce an outcome, constituting an important component of voluntary behavior. Because the environment can be volatile, the same action may cause different consequences. Thus to obtain an optimal outcome, it is crucial to detect action–outcome relationships and adapt the behavior accordingly. Although prefrontal neurons are known to change activity depending on expected reward, it remains unknown whether prefrontal activity contributes to obtaining reward. We investigated this issue by setting variable relationships between levels of single-neuron activity and rewarding outcomes. Lateral prefrontal neurons changed their spiking activity according to the specific requirements for gaining reward, without the animals making a motor response. Thus spiking activity constituted an operant response. Data from a control task suggested that these changes were unlikely to reflect simple reward predictions. These data demonstrate a remarkable capacity of prefrontal neurons to adapt to specific operant requirements at the single-neuron level. PMID:20107129

Climate and human intervention effects on future fire activity and consequences for air pollution across the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Val Martin, M.; Pierce, J. R.; Heald, C. L.; Li, F.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Tilmes, S.; Vitt, F.

2016-12-01

Emissions of aerosols and gases from fires have been shown to adversely affect air quality across the world. Fire activity is strongly related to climate and anthropogenic activities. Current fire projections for the 21st century seem very uncertain, ranging from increasing to declining depending on the climate, land cover change and population growth scenarios used. Here we present an analysis of the changes in future wildfire activity and consequences on air quality, with focus on PM2.5 and surface O3 over regions vulnerable to fire. We use the global Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a process-based fire model to simulate emissions from agriculture, peatland, deforestation and landscape fires for present-day and throughout the current century. We consider two future Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios combined with population density changes predicted from Shared Socio-economic Pathways to project climate and demographic effects on fire activity and further consequences for future air quality.

Structure-based prediction of free energy changes of binding of PTP1B inhibitors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jing; Ling Chan, Shek; Ramnarayan, Kal

2003-08-01

The goals were (1) to understand the driving forces in the binding of small molecule inhibitors to the active site of PTP1B and (2) to develop a molecular mechanics-based empirical free energy function for compound potency prediction. A set of compounds with known activities was docked onto the active site. The related energy components and molecular surface areas were calculated. The bridging water molecules were identified and their contributions were considered. Linear relationships were explored between the above terms and the binding free energies of compounds derived based on experimental inhibition constants. We found that minimally three terms are required to give rise to a good correlation (0.86) with predictive power in five-group cross-validation test (q2 = 0.70). The dominant terms are the electrostatic energy and non-electrostatic energy stemming from the intra- and intermolecular interactions of solutes and from those of bridging water molecules in complexes.

Task network models in the prediction of workload imposed by extravehicular activities during the Hubble Space Telescope servicing mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Diaz, Manuel F.; Takamoto, Neal; Woolford, Barbara

1994-01-01

In a joint effort with Brooks AFB, Texas, the Flight Crew Support Division at JSC has begun a computer simulation and performance modeling program directed at establishing the predictive validity of software tools for modeling human performance during spaceflight. This paper addresses the utility of task network modeling for predicting the workload that astronauts are likely to encounter in extravehicular activities (EVA) during the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) repair mission. The intent of the study was to determine whether two EVA crewmembers and one intravehicular activity (IVA) crewmember could reasonably be expected to complete HST Wide Field/Planetary Camera (WFPC) replacement in the allotted time. Ultimately, examination of the points during HST servicing that may result in excessive workload will lead to recommendations to the HST Flight Systems and Servicing Project concerning (1) expectation of degraded performance, (2) the need to change task allocation across crewmembers, (3) the need to expand the timeline, and (4) the need to increase the number of EVA's.

Commitment to change and assessment of confidence: tools to inform the design and evaluation of interprofessional education.

PubMed

Evans, Jessica A; Mazmanian, Paul E; Dow, Alan W; Lockeman, Kelly S; Yanchick, Victor A

2014-01-01

This study examines use of the commitment-to-change model (CTC) and explores the role of confidence in evaluating change associated with participation in an interprofessional education (IPE) symposium. Participants included students, faculty, and practitioners in the health professions. Satisfaction with the symposium and levels of commitment and confidence in implementing a change were assessed with a post-questionnaire and a follow-up questionnaire distributed 60 days later. Participants who reported changed behavior were compared with those who did not make a change. Independent sample t-tests determined whether there were differences between groups in their average level of commitment and/or confidence immediately following the symposium and at follow-up. At post-symposium, attendees were satisfied with content and format. Sixty-eight percent said they would make a change in profession related activities. At 60 days, 53% indicated they had implemented a change. In comparison to those who reported no change, those who made a change reported higher levels of commitment and higher levels of confidence. Logistic regression suggested that the combination of commitment and confidence did not predict implementation in this sample; however, confidence had a higher odds ratio for predicting success than did commitment. Confidence should be studied further in relation to commitment as a predictor of behavioral change associated with participation in an IPE symposium. Evaluators and instructional designers should consider use of follow-up support activities to improve learners' confidence and likelihood of successful behavior change in the workplace. © 2014 The Alliance for Continuing Education in the Health Professions, the Society for Academic Continuing Medical Education, and the Council on Continuing Medical Education, Association for Hospital Medical Education.

Physical activity and 5-year changes in physical performance tests and bone mineral density in postmenopausal women: the Yokogoshi Study.

PubMed

Kitamura, Kaori; Nakamura, Kazutoshi; Kobayashi, Ryosaku; Oshiki, Rieko; Saito, Toshiko; Oyama, Mari; Takahashi, Shunsuke; Nishiwaki, Tomoko; Iwasaki, Masanori; Yoshihara, Akihiro

2011-09-01

The effect of physical activity on musculoskeletal health in older adults is not completely understood. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between physical activity and 5-year changes in physical performance tests and bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal women. The design was a 5-year cohort study. Subjects were 507 women (55-74 years old) living in a rural community in Japan. Physical activity assessed included housework, farm work, and moderate leisure-time physical activity within the previous week. Measurements at baseline included handgrip strength, walking time (timed "Up & Go" test) and BMD of the femoral neck and vertebrae. Five-year changes in these measures (outcome variables) were compared among groups with different levels of physical activity by analysis of covariance. Women who did not do housework performed worse in changes in handgrip strength (difference=2.22 kg, P=0.0201) and worse in changes in the walking time (difference=0.54 s, P=0.0072) than those who did housework alone. Women who spent at least 9h per week (median=24) doing farm work performed better in changes in handgrip strength (difference=0.28 kg, P=0.0334), but worse in changes in the walking time (difference=0.66 s, P<0.0001) than those who did not do farm work. However, leisure-time activity was not associated with changes in any outcome variable, and none of the physical activities predicted BMD changes. Engaging in housework and farm work are determinants of physical function in postmenopausal women, which may help them maintain independence in daily living. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate extremes in the Pacific: improving seasonal prediction of tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures to improve resilience

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kuleshov, Y.; Jones, D.; Spillman, C. M.

2012-04-01

Climate change and climate extremes have a major impact on Australia and Pacific Island countries. Of particular concern are tropical cyclones and extreme ocean temperatures, the first being the most destructive events for terrestrial systems, while the latter has the potential to devastate ocean ecosystems through coral bleaching. As a practical response to climate change, under the Pacific-Australia Climate Change Science and Adaptation Planning program (PACCSAP), we are developing enhanced web-based information tools for providing seasonal forecasts for climatic extremes in the Western Pacific. Tropical cyclones are the most destructive weather systems that impact on coastal areas. Interannual variability in the intensity and distribution of tropical cyclones is large, and presently greater than any trends that are ascribable to climate change. In the warming environment, predicting tropical cyclone occurrence based on historical relationships, with predictors such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs) now frequently lying outside of the range of past variability meaning that it is not possible to find historical analogues for the seasonal conditions often faced by Pacific countries. Elevated SSTs are the primary trigger for mass coral bleaching events, which can lead to widespread damage and mortality on reef systems. Degraded coral reefs present many problems, including long-term loss of tourism and potential loss or degradation of fisheries. The monitoring and prediction of thermal stress events enables the support of a range of adaptive and management activities that could improve reef resilience to extreme conditions. Using the climate model POAMA (Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia), we aim to improve accuracy of seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity and extreme SSTs for the regions of Western Pacific. Improved knowledge of extreme climatic events, with the assistance of tailored forecast tools, will help enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of Australia and Pacific Island Countries under climate change. Acknowledgement The research discussed in this paper was conducted with the support of the PACCSAP supported by the AusAID and Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and delivered by the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO.

Differential Rate of Deforestation in Two Adjoining Indian River Basins: Does Resource Availability Matters?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Das, P.; Behera, M. D.

2017-12-01

Deforestation is one of the key factors of global climate change by altering the surface albedo reduces the evapotranspiration and surface roughness leads to warming in tropical regions. River basins are always subjected to LULC changes, especially decline in forest cover to give way for agricultural expansion, urbanisation, industrialisation etc. We generated LULC maps at three decadal intervals i.e., 1985, 1995 and 2005 in two major river basins of India using Landsat data employing on-screen visual image interpretation technique. In Rain-fed, Mahanadi river basin (MRB), 30.64% forest cover in 1985 was reduced to 30.13% in 2005, wherein glacier-fed, Brahmaputra river basin (BRB) this change was 63.44% to 62.32% during 1985 to 2005. Though conversion of forest land for agricultural activities was the major LULC changes in both the basins, the rate was more than two times higher in BRB than MRB. Scrub land in few zones acted as an intermediate class for mixed forest conversion to cropland land in both the basins. Analysing the drivers, in deforestation we observed the proximity zones around habitat and socio-economic drivers contributed higher compared to topographic, edaphic and climate. Using Dyna-CLUE modelling approach, we have predicted the LULC for 2025. For validation, comparing the predicted result with actual LULC of 2005, we obtained > 97% modeling accuracy; therefore it is expected that the Dyna-CLUE model has very well predicted the LULC for the year 2025. The predicted LULC of 2025 captured the similar trend of deforestation around 0.52% in MRB and 1.18% in BRB during 2005 to 2025. Acting as early warning, and with the past 2-decadal change analysis this study is believed to help the land use planners for improved regional planning to create balanced ecosystem, especially in a changing climate. On the basis of driver analysis, we believe that availability of more forest resources in Brahmaputra River basin provided extra liberty for higher deforestation for agriculture land conversion, followed by other developmental activities in comparison to Mahanadi River basin.

Neural activity during affect labeling predicts expressive writing effects on well-being: GLM and SVM approaches.

PubMed

Memarian, Negar; Torre, Jared B; Haltom, Kate E; Stanton, Annette L; Lieberman, Matthew D

2017-09-01

Affect labeling (putting feelings into words) is a form of incidental emotion regulation that could underpin some benefits of expressive writing (i.e. writing about negative experiences). Here, we show that neural responses during affect labeling predicted changes in psychological and physical well-being outcome measures 3 months later. Furthermore, neural activity of specific frontal regions and amygdala predicted those outcomes as a function of expressive writing. Using supervised learning (support vector machines regression), improvements in four measures of psychological and physical health (physical symptoms, depression, anxiety and life satisfaction) after an expressive writing intervention were predicted with an average of 0.85% prediction error [root mean square error (RMSE) %]. The predictions were significantly more accurate with machine learning than with the conventional generalized linear model method (average RMSE: 1.3%). Consistent with affect labeling research, right ventrolateral prefrontal cortex (RVLPFC) and amygdalae were top predictors of improvement in the four outcomes. Moreover, RVLPFC and left amygdala predicted benefits due to expressive writing in satisfaction with life and depression outcome measures, respectively. This study demonstrates the substantial merit of supervised machine learning for real-world outcome prediction in social and affective neuroscience. © The Author (2017). Published by Oxford University Press.

Prediction of LDEF exposure to the ionizing radiation environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Watts, J. W.; Armstrong, T. W.; Colborn, B. L.

1996-01-01

Predictions of the LDEF mission's trapped proton and electron and galactic cosmic ray proton exposures have been made using the currently accepted models with improved resolution near mission end and better modeling of solar cycle effects. An extension of previous calculations, to provide a more definitive description of the LDEF exposure to ionizing radiation, is represented by trapped proton and electron flux as a function of mission time, presented considering altitude and solar activity variation during the mission and the change in galactic cosmic ray proton flux over the mission. Modifications of the AP8MAX and AP8MIN fluence led to a reduction of fluence by 20%. A modified interpolation model developed by Daly and Evans resulted in 30% higher dose and activation levels, which better agreed with measured values than results predicted using the Vette model.

Predicting Gene Structure Changes Resulting from Genetic Variants via Exon Definition Features.

PubMed

Majoros, William H; Holt, Carson; Campbell, Michael S; Ware, Doreen; Yandell, Mark; Reddy, Timothy E

2018-04-25

Genetic variation that disrupts gene function by altering gene splicing between individuals can substantially influence traits and disease. In those cases, accurately predicting the effects of genetic variation on splicing can be highly valuable for investigating the mechanisms underlying those traits and diseases. While methods have been developed to generate high quality computational predictions of gene structures in reference genomes, the same methods perform poorly when used to predict the potentially deleterious effects of genetic changes that alter gene splicing between individuals. Underlying that discrepancy in predictive ability are the common assumptions by reference gene finding algorithms that genes are conserved, well-formed, and produce functional proteins. We describe a probabilistic approach for predicting recent changes to gene structure that may or may not conserve function. The model is applicable to both coding and noncoding genes, and can be trained on existing gene annotations without requiring curated examples of aberrant splicing. We apply this model to the problem of predicting altered splicing patterns in the genomes of individual humans, and we demonstrate that performing gene-structure prediction without relying on conserved coding features is feasible. The model predicts an unexpected abundance of variants that create de novo splice sites, an observation supported by both simulations and empirical data from RNA-seq experiments. While these de novo splice variants are commonly misinterpreted by other tools as coding or noncoding variants of little or no effect, we find that in some cases they can have large effects on splicing activity and protein products, and we propose that they may commonly act as cryptic factors in disease. The software is available from geneprediction.org/SGRF. bmajoros@duke.edu. Supplementary information is available at Bioinformatics online.

Nutrients in estuaries--an overview and the potential impacts of climate change.

PubMed

Statham, Peter J

2012-09-15

The fate and cycling of macronutrients introduced into estuaries depend upon a range of interlinked processes. Hydrodynamics and morphology in combination with freshwater inflow control the freshwater flushing time, and the timescale for biogeochemical processes to operate that include microbial activity, particle-dissolved phase interactions, and benthic exchanges. In some systems atmospheric inputs and exchanges with coastal waters can also be important. Climate change will affect nutrient inputs and behaviour through modifications to temperature, wind patterns, the hydrological cycle, and sea level rise. Resulting impacts include: 1) inundation of freshwater systems 2) changes in stratification, flushing times and phytoplankton productivity 3) increased coastal storm activity 4) changes in species and ecosystem function. A combination of continuing high inputs of nutrients through human activity and climate change is anticipated to lead to enhanced eutrophication in the future. The most obvious impacts of increasing global temperature will be in sub-arctic systems where permafrost zones will be reduced in combination with enhanced inputs from glacial systems. Improved process understanding in several key areas including cycling of organic N and P, benthic exchanges, resuspension, impact of bio-irrigation, particle interactions, submarine groundwater discharges, and rates and magnitude of bacterially-driven recycling processes, is needed. Development of high frequency in situ nutrient analysis systems will provide data to improve predictive models that need to incorporate a wider variety of key factors, although the complexity of estuarine systems makes such modelling a challenge. However, overall a more holistic approach is needed to effectively understand, predict and manage the impact of macronutrients on estuaries. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Movement initiation-locked activity of the anterior putamen predicts future movement instability in periodic bimanual movement.

PubMed

Aramaki, Yu; Haruno, Masahiko; Osu, Rieko; Sadato, Norihiro

2011-07-06

In periodic bimanual movements, anti-phase-coordinated patterns often change into in-phase patterns suddenly and involuntarily. Because behavior in the initial period of a sequence of cycles often does not show any obvious errors, it is difficult to predict subsequent movement errors in the later period of the cyclical sequence. Here, we evaluated performance in the later period of the cyclical sequence of bimanual periodic movements using human brain activity measured with functional magnetic resonance imaging as well as using initial movement features. Eighteen subjects performed a 30 s bimanual finger-tapping task. We calculated differences in initiation-locked transient brain activity between antiphase and in-phase tapping conditions. Correlation analysis revealed that the difference in the anterior putamen activity during antiphase compared within-phase tapping conditions was strongly correlated with future instability as measured by the mean absolute deviation of the left-hand intertap interval during antiphase movements relative to in-phase movements (r = 0.81). Among the initial movement features we measured, only the number of taps to establish the antiphase movement pattern exhibited a significant correlation. However, the correlation efficient of 0.60 was not high enough to predict the characteristics of subsequent movement. There was no significant correlation between putamen activity and initial movement features. It is likely that initiating unskilled difficult movements requires increased anterior putamen activity, and this activity increase may facilitate the initiation of movement via the basal ganglia-thalamocortical circuit. Our results suggest that initiation-locked transient activity of the anterior putamen can be used to predict future motor performance.

Inferring gene expression from ribosomal promoter sequences, a crowdsourcing approach

PubMed Central

Meyer, Pablo; Siwo, Geoffrey; Zeevi, Danny; Sharon, Eilon; Norel, Raquel; Segal, Eran; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Siwo, Geoffrey; Rider, Andrew K.; Tan, Asako; Pinapati, Richard S.; Emrich, Scott; Chawla, Nitesh; Ferdig, Michael T.; Tung, Yi-An; Chen, Yong-Syuan; Chen, Mei-Ju May; Chen, Chien-Yu; Knight, Jason M.; Sahraeian, Sayed Mohammad Ebrahim; Esfahani, Mohammad Shahrokh; Dreos, Rene; Bucher, Philipp; Maier, Ezekiel; Saeys, Yvan; Szczurek, Ewa; Myšičková, Alena; Vingron, Martin; Klein, Holger; Kiełbasa, Szymon M.; Knisley, Jeff; Bonnell, Jeff; Knisley, Debra; Kursa, Miron B.; Rudnicki, Witold R.; Bhattacharjee, Madhuchhanda; Sillanpää, Mikko J.; Yeung, James; Meysman, Pieter; Rodríguez, Aminael Sánchez; Engelen, Kristof; Marchal, Kathleen; Huang, Yezhou; Mordelet, Fantine; Hartemink, Alexander; Pinello, Luca; Yuan, Guo-Cheng

2013-01-01

The Gene Promoter Expression Prediction challenge consisted of predicting gene expression from promoter sequences in a previously unknown experimentally generated data set. The challenge was presented to the community in the framework of the sixth Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods (DREAM6), a community effort to evaluate the status of systems biology modeling methodologies. Nucleotide-specific promoter activity was obtained by measuring fluorescence from promoter sequences fused upstream of a gene for yellow fluorescence protein and inserted in the same genomic site of yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Twenty-one teams submitted results predicting the expression levels of 53 different promoters from yeast ribosomal protein genes. Analysis of participant predictions shows that accurate values for low-expressed and mutated promoters were difficult to obtain, although in the latter case, only when the mutation induced a large change in promoter activity compared to the wild-type sequence. As in previous DREAM challenges, we found that aggregation of participant predictions provided robust results, but did not fare better than the three best algorithms. Finally, this study not only provides a benchmark for the assessment of methods predicting activity of a specific set of promoters from their sequence, but it also shows that the top performing algorithm, which used machine-learning approaches, can be improved by the addition of biological features such as transcription factor binding sites. PMID:23950146

GEWEX America Prediction Project (GAPP) Science and Implementation Plan

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2004-01-01

The purpose of this Science and Implementation Plan is to describe GAPP science objectives and the activities required to meet these objectives, both specifically for the near-term and more generally for the longer-term. The GEWEX Americas Prediction Project (GAPP) is part of the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) initiative that is aimed at observing, understanding and modeling the hydrological cycle and energy fluxes at various time and spatial scales. The mission of GAPP is to demonstrate skill in predicting changes in water resources over intraseasonal-to-interannual time scales, as an integral part of the climate system.

Financial motivation undermines potential enjoyment in an intensive diet and activity intervention.

PubMed

Moller, Arlen C; Buscemi, Joanna; McFadden, H Gene; Hedeker, Donald; Spring, Bonnie

2014-10-01

The use of material incentives in healthy lifestyle interventions is becoming widespread. However, self-determination theory (SDT) posits that when material incentives are perceived as controlling, they undermine intrinsic motivation. We analyzed data from the Make Better Choices trial-a trial testing strategies for improving four risk behaviors: low fruit-vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary activity. At baseline, participants reported the degree to which financial incentives were an important motivator (financial motivation); self-reported enjoyment of each behavior was assessed before and after the 3-week incentivization phase. Consistent with SDT, after controlling for general motivation and group assignment, lower financial motivation predicted more adaptive changes in enjoyment. Whereas participants low in financial motivation experienced adaptive changes, adaptive changes were suppressed among those high in financial motivation.

Financial motivation undermines potential enjoyment in an intensive diet and activity intervention

PubMed Central

Moller, Arlen C.; Buscemi, Joanna; McFadden, H. Gene; Hedeker, Donald; Spring, Bonnie

2013-01-01

The use of material incentives in healthy lifestyle interventions is becoming widespread. However, self-determination theory (SDT) posits that when material incentives are perceived as controlling, they undermine intrinsic motivation. We analyzed data from the Make Better Choices trial—a trial testing strategies for improving four risk behaviors: low fruit–vegetable intake, high saturated fat intake, low physical activity, and high sedentary activity. At baseline, participants reported the degree to which financial incentives were an important motivator (financial motivation); self-reported enjoyment of each behavior was assessed before and after the 3-week incentivization phase. Consistent with SDT, after controlling for general motivation and group assignment, lower financial motivation predicted more adaptive changes in enjoyment. Whereas participants low in financial motivation experienced adaptive changes, adaptive changes were suppressed among those high in financial motivation. PMID:24142187

How ocean color can steer Pacific tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gnanadesikan, Anand; Emanuel, Kerry; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Anderson, Whit G.; Hallberg, Robert

2010-09-01

Because ocean color alters the absorption of sunlight, it can produce changes in sea surface temperatures with further impacts on atmospheric circulation. These changes can project onto fields previously recognized to alter the distribution of tropical cyclones. If the North Pacific subtropical gyre contained no absorbing and scattering materials, the result would be to reduce subtropical cyclone activity in the subtropical Northwest Pacific by 2/3, while concentrating cyclone tracks along the equator. Predicting tropical cyclone activity using coupled models may thus require consideration of the details of how heat moves into the upper thermocline as well as biogeochemical cycling.

Predicting Motivation: Computational Models of PFC Can Explain Neural Coding of Motivation and Effort-based Decision-making in Health and Disease.

PubMed

Vassena, Eliana; Deraeve, James; Alexander, William H

2017-10-01

Human behavior is strongly driven by the pursuit of rewards. In daily life, however, benefits mostly come at a cost, often requiring that effort be exerted to obtain potential benefits. Medial PFC (MPFC) and dorsolateral PFC (DLPFC) are frequently implicated in the expectation of effortful control, showing increased activity as a function of predicted task difficulty. Such activity partially overlaps with expectation of reward and has been observed both during decision-making and during task preparation. Recently, novel computational frameworks have been developed to explain activity in these regions during cognitive control, based on the principle of prediction and prediction error (predicted response-outcome [PRO] model [Alexander, W. H., & Brown, J. W. Medial prefrontal cortex as an action-outcome predictor. Nature Neuroscience, 14, 1338-1344, 2011], hierarchical error representation [HER] model [Alexander, W. H., & Brown, J. W. Hierarchical error representation: A computational model of anterior cingulate and dorsolateral prefrontal cortex. Neural Computation, 27, 2354-2410, 2015]). Despite the broad explanatory power of these models, it is not clear whether they can also accommodate effects related to the expectation of effort observed in MPFC and DLPFC. Here, we propose a translation of these computational frameworks to the domain of effort-based behavior. First, we discuss how the PRO model, based on prediction error, can explain effort-related activity in MPFC, by reframing effort-based behavior in a predictive context. We propose that MPFC activity reflects monitoring of motivationally relevant variables (such as effort and reward), by coding expectations and discrepancies from such expectations. Moreover, we derive behavioral and neural model-based predictions for healthy controls and clinical populations with impairments of motivation. Second, we illustrate the possible translation to effort-based behavior of the HER model, an extended version of PRO model based on hierarchical error prediction, developed to explain MPFC-DLPFC interactions. We derive behavioral predictions that describe how effort and reward information is coded in PFC and how changing the configuration of such environmental information might affect decision-making and task performance involving motivation.

Synchronous activity in cat visual cortex encodes collinear and cocircular contours.

PubMed

Samonds, Jason M; Zhou, Zhiyi; Bernard, Melanie R; Bonds, A B

2006-04-01

We explored how contour information in primary visual cortex might be embedded in the simultaneous activity of multiple cells recorded with a 100-electrode array. Synchronous activity in cat visual cortex was more selective and predictable in discriminating between drifting grating and concentric ring stimuli than changes in firing rate. Synchrony was found even between cells with wholly different orientation preferences when their receptive fields were circularly aligned, and membership in synchronous groups was orientation and curvature dependent. The existence of synchrony between cocircular cells reinforces its role as a general mechanism for contour integration and shape detection as predicted by association field concepts. Our data suggest that cortical synchrony results from common and synchronous input from earlier visual areas and that it could serve to shape extrastriate response selectivity.

Comparison of human gastrocnemius forces predicted by Hill-type muscle models and estimated from ultrasound images

PubMed Central

Biewener, Andrew A.; Wakeling, James M.

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Hill-type models are ubiquitous in the field of biomechanics, providing estimates of a muscle's force as a function of its activation state and its assumed force–length and force–velocity properties. However, despite their routine use, the accuracy with which Hill-type models predict the forces generated by muscles during submaximal, dynamic tasks remains largely unknown. This study compared human gastrocnemius forces predicted by Hill-type models with the forces estimated from ultrasound-based measures of tendon length changes and stiffness during cycling, over a range of loads and cadences. We tested both a traditional model, with one contractile element, and a differential model, with two contractile elements that accounted for independent contributions of slow and fast muscle fibres. Both models were driven by subject-specific, ultrasound-based measures of fascicle lengths, velocities and pennation angles and by activation patterns of slow and fast muscle fibres derived from surface electromyographic recordings. The models predicted, on average, 54% of the time-varying gastrocnemius forces estimated from the ultrasound-based methods. However, differences between predicted and estimated forces were smaller under low speed–high activation conditions, with models able to predict nearly 80% of the gastrocnemius force over a complete pedal cycle. Additionally, the predictions from the Hill-type muscle models tested here showed that a similar pattern of force production could be achieved for most conditions with and without accounting for the independent contributions of different muscle fibre types. PMID:28202584

Health behavior change counseling in surgery for degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis. Part II: patient activation mediates the effects of health behavior change counseling on rehabilitation engagement.

PubMed

Skolasky, Richard L; Maggard, Anica M; Li, David; Riley, Lee H; Wegener, Stephen T

2015-07-01

To determine the effect of health behavior change counseling (HBCC) on patient activation and the influence of patient activation on rehabilitation engagement, and to identify common barriers to engagement among individuals undergoing surgery for degenerative lumbar spinal stenosis. Prospective clinical trial. Academic medical center. Consecutive lumbar spine surgery patients (N=122) defined in our companion article (Part I) were assigned to a control group (did not receive HBCC, n=59) or HBCC group (received HBCC, n=63). Brief motivational interviewing-based HBCC versus control (significance, P<.05). We assessed patient activation before and after intervention. Rehabilitation engagement was assessed using the physical therapist-reported Hopkins Rehabilitation Engagement Rating Scale and by a ratio of self-reported physical therapy and home exercise completion. Common barriers to rehabilitation engagement were identified through thematic analysis. Patient activation predicted engagement (standardized regression weight, .682; P<.001). Postintervention patient activation was predicted by baseline patient activation (standardized regression weight, .808; P<.001) and receipt of HBCC (standardized regression weight, .444; P<.001). The effect of HBCC on rehabilitation engagement was mediated by patient activation (standardized regression weight, .079; P=.395). One-third of the HBCC group did not show improvement compared with the control group. Thematic analysis identified 3 common barriers to engagement: (1) low self-efficacy because of lack of knowledge and support (62%); (2) anxiety related to fear of movement (57%); and (3) concern about pain management (48%). The influence of HBCC on rehabilitation engagement was mediated by patient activation. Despite improvements in patient activation, one-third of patients reported low rehabilitation engagement. Addressing these barriers should lead to greater improvements in rehabilitation engagement. Copyright © 2015 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Actively Controlled Shaft Seals for Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salant, Richard F.; Wolff, Paul

1995-01-01

This study experimentally investigates an actively controlled mechanical seal for aerospace applications. The seal of interest is a gas seal, which is considerably more compact than previous actively controlled mechanical seals that were developed for industrial use. In a mechanical seal, the radial convergence of the seal interface has a primary effect on the film thickness. Active control of the film thickness is established by controlling the radial convergence of the seal interface with a piezoelectric actuator. An actively controlled mechanical seal was initially designed and evaluated using a mathematical model. Based on these results, a seal was fabricated and tested under laboratory conditions. The seal was tested with both helium and air, at rotational speeds up to 3770 rad/sec, and at sealed pressures as high as 1.48 x 10(exp 6) Pa. The seal was operated with both manual control and with a closed-loop control system that used either the leakage rate or face temperature as the feedback. The output of the controller was the voltage applied to the piezoelectric actuator. The seal operated successfully for both short term tests (less than one hour) and for longer term tests (four hours) with a closed-loop control system. The leakage rates were typically 5-15 slm (standard liters per minute), and the face temperatures were generally maintained below 100C. When leakage rate was used as the feedback signal, the setpoint leakage rate was typically maintained within 1 slm. However, larger deviations occurred during sudden changes in sealed pressure. When face temperature was used as the feedback signal, the setpoint face temperature was generally maintained within 3 C, with larger deviations occurring when the sealed pressure changes suddenly. the experimental results were compared to the predictions from the mathematical model. The model was successful in predicting the trends in leakage rate that occurred as the balance ratio and sealed pressure changed, although the leakage rates were not quantitatively predicted with a high degree of accuracy. This model could be useful in providing valuable design information for future actively controlled mechanical seals.

Residual Upper Arm Motor Function Primes Innervation of Paretic Forearm Muscles in Chronic Stroke after Brain-Machine Interface (BMI) Training

PubMed Central

Curado, Marco Rocha; Cossio, Eliana Garcia; Broetz, Doris; Agostini, Manuel; Cho, Woosang; Brasil, Fabricio Lima; Yilmaz, Oezge; Liberati, Giulia; Lepski, Guilherme

2015-01-01

Background Abnormal upper arm-forearm muscle synergies after stroke are poorly understood. We investigated whether upper arm function primes paralyzed forearm muscles in chronic stroke patients after Brain-Machine Interface (BMI)-based rehabilitation. Shaping upper arm-forearm muscle synergies may support individualized motor rehabilitation strategies. Methods Thirty-two chronic stroke patients with no active finger extensions were randomly assigned to experimental or sham groups and underwent daily BMI training followed by physiotherapy during four weeks. BMI sessions included desynchronization of ipsilesional brain activity and a robotic orthosis to move the paretic limb (experimental group, n = 16). In the sham group (n = 16) orthosis movements were random. Motor function was evaluated with electromyography (EMG) of forearm extensors, and upper arm and hand Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA) scores. Patients performed distinct upper arm (e.g., shoulder flexion) and hand movements (finger extensions). Forearm EMG activity significantly higher during upper arm movements as compared to finger extensions was considered facilitation of forearm EMG activity. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to test inter-session reliability of facilitation of forearm EMG activity. Results Facilitation of forearm EMG activity ICC ranges from 0.52 to 0.83, indicating fair to high reliability before intervention in both limbs. Facilitation of forearm muscles is higher in the paretic as compared to the healthy limb (p<0.001). Upper arm FMA scores predict facilitation of forearm muscles after intervention in both groups (significant correlations ranged from R = 0.752, p = 0.002 to R = 0.779, p = 0.001), but only in the experimental group upper arm FMA scores predict changes in facilitation of forearm muscles after intervention (R = 0.709, p = 0.002; R = 0.827, p<0.001). Conclusions Residual upper arm motor function primes recruitment of paralyzed forearm muscles in chronic stroke patients and predicts changes in their recruitment after BMI training. This study suggests that changes in upper arm-forearm synergies contribute to stroke motor recovery, and provides candidacy guidelines for similar BMI-based clinical practice. PMID:26495971

Residual Upper Arm Motor Function Primes Innervation of Paretic Forearm Muscles in Chronic Stroke after Brain-Machine Interface (BMI) Training.

PubMed

Curado, Marco Rocha; Cossio, Eliana Garcia; Broetz, Doris; Agostini, Manuel; Cho, Woosang; Brasil, Fabricio Lima; Yilmaz, Oezge; Liberati, Giulia; Lepski, Guilherme; Birbaumer, Niels; Ramos-Murguialday, Ander

2015-01-01

Abnormal upper arm-forearm muscle synergies after stroke are poorly understood. We investigated whether upper arm function primes paralyzed forearm muscles in chronic stroke patients after Brain-Machine Interface (BMI)-based rehabilitation. Shaping upper arm-forearm muscle synergies may support individualized motor rehabilitation strategies. Thirty-two chronic stroke patients with no active finger extensions were randomly assigned to experimental or sham groups and underwent daily BMI training followed by physiotherapy during four weeks. BMI sessions included desynchronization of ipsilesional brain activity and a robotic orthosis to move the paretic limb (experimental group, n = 16). In the sham group (n = 16) orthosis movements were random. Motor function was evaluated with electromyography (EMG) of forearm extensors, and upper arm and hand Fugl-Meyer assessment (FMA) scores. Patients performed distinct upper arm (e.g., shoulder flexion) and hand movements (finger extensions). Forearm EMG activity significantly higher during upper arm movements as compared to finger extensions was considered facilitation of forearm EMG activity. Intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to test inter-session reliability of facilitation of forearm EMG activity. Facilitation of forearm EMG activity ICC ranges from 0.52 to 0.83, indicating fair to high reliability before intervention in both limbs. Facilitation of forearm muscles is higher in the paretic as compared to the healthy limb (p<0.001). Upper arm FMA scores predict facilitation of forearm muscles after intervention in both groups (significant correlations ranged from R = 0.752, p = 0.002 to R = 0.779, p = 0.001), but only in the experimental group upper arm FMA scores predict changes in facilitation of forearm muscles after intervention (R = 0.709, p = 0.002; R = 0.827, p<0.001). Residual upper arm motor function primes recruitment of paralyzed forearm muscles in chronic stroke patients and predicts changes in their recruitment after BMI training. This study suggests that changes in upper arm-forearm synergies contribute to stroke motor recovery, and provides candidacy guidelines for similar BMI-based clinical practice.

Anterior EEG asymmetries and opponent process theory.

PubMed

Kline, John P; Blackhart, Ginette C; Williams, William C

2007-03-01

The opponent process theory of emotion [Solomon, R.L., and Corbit, J.D. (1974). An opponent-process theory of motivation: I. Temporal dynamics of affect. Psychological Review, 81, 119-143.] predicts a temporary reversal of emotional valence during the recovery from emotional stimulation. We hypothesized that this affective contrast would be apparent in asymmetrical activity patterns in the frontal lobes, and would be more apparent for left frontally active individuals. The present study tested this prediction by examining EEG asymmetries during and after blocked presentations of aversive pictures selected from the International Affective Picture System (IAPS). 12 neutral images, 12 aversive images, and 24 neutral images were presented in blocks. Participants who were right frontally active at baseline did not show changes in EEG asymmetry while viewing aversive slides or after cessation. Participants left frontally active at baseline, however, exhibited greater relative left frontal activity after aversive stimulation than before stimulation. Asymmetrical activity patterns in the frontal lobes may relate to affect regulatory processes, including contrasting opponent after-reactions to aversive stimuli.

SOD activity of carboxyfullerenes predicts their neuroprotective efficacy: A structure-activity study

PubMed Central

Ali, Sameh Saad; Hardt, Joshua I.; Dugan, Laura L.

2008-01-01

Superoxide radical anion is a biologically important oxidant that has been linked to tissue injury and inflammation in several diseases. Here we carried out a structure-activity study on 6 different carboxyfullerene superoxide dismutase (SOD) mimetics with distinct electronic and biophysical characteristics. Neurotoxicity via NMDA receptors, which involves intracellular superoxide, was used as a model to evaluate structure-activity relationships between reactivity towards superoxide and neuronal rescue by these drugs. A significant correlation between neuroprotection by carboxyfullerenes and their ki towards superoxide radical was observed. Computer-assistant molecular modeling demonstrated that the reactivity towards superoxide is sensitive to changes in dipole moment which are dictated not only by the number of carboxyl groups, but also by their distribution on the fullerene ball. These results indicate that the SOD activity of these cell-permeable compounds predicts neuroprotection, and establishes a structure-activity relationship to aid in future studies on the biology of superoxide across disciplines. PMID:18656425

Effects of a randomized exercise trial on physical activity, psychological distress and quality of life in older adults.

PubMed

Awick, Elizabeth A; Ehlers, Diane K; Aguiñaga, Susan; Daugherty, Ana M; Kramer, Arthur F; McAuley, Edward

2017-11-01

Evidence suggests improvements in positive psychological health indices (e.g., self-esteem) may explain the relationship between physical activity and quality of life (QoL) in older adults. Less is known about the role of reductions in negative psychological health indices (e.g., depression). The present study examined the effects of changes in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and psychological distress on change in QoL in older adults enrolled in an exercise program. Older adults (N=247, Mage=65.68±4.59) participated in a six-month randomized exercise trial. Participants wore accelerometers and completed questionnaires to measure MVPA, psychological health, and QoL at baseline and post-intervention. Psychological distress was modeled as a latent factor comprised of anxiety, depression, sleep dysfunction, and stress. Structural models were used to examine the effects of changes in MVPA and distress on change in QoL. Increases in MVPA predicted reductions in distress from baseline to post-intervention (B=-0.10, p=0.05). In turn, reductions in distress predicted increases in QoL (B=-0.51, p=0.001). The indirect effect of MVPA on QoL through distress was also significant (p=0.05; 90% CI=0.005, 0.125). Findings extend previous research on the mediators of the MVPA-QoL relationship in older adults, suggesting reductions in negative psychological health outcomes may also mediate this pathway. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Many human accelerated regions are developmental enhancers

PubMed Central

Capra, John A.; Erwin, Genevieve D.; McKinsey, Gabriel; Rubenstein, John L. R.; Pollard, Katherine S.

2013-01-01

The genetic changes underlying the dramatic differences in form and function between humans and other primates are largely unknown, although it is clear that gene regulatory changes play an important role. To identify regulatory sequences with potentially human-specific functions, we and others used comparative genomics to find non-coding regions conserved across mammals that have acquired many sequence changes in humans since divergence from chimpanzees. These regions are good candidates for performing human-specific regulatory functions. Here, we analysed the DNA sequence, evolutionary history, histone modifications, chromatin state and transcription factor (TF) binding sites of a combined set of 2649 non-coding human accelerated regions (ncHARs) and predicted that at least 30% of them function as developmental enhancers. We prioritized the predicted ncHAR enhancers using analysis of TF binding site gain and loss, along with the functional annotations and expression patterns of nearby genes. We then tested both the human and chimpanzee sequence for 29 ncHARs in transgenic mice, and found 24 novel developmental enhancers active in both species, 17 of which had very consistent patterns of activity in specific embryonic tissues. Of these ncHAR enhancers, five drove expression patterns suggestive of different activity for the human and chimpanzee sequence at embryonic day 11.5. The changes to human non-coding DNA in these ncHAR enhancers may modify the complex patterns of gene expression necessary for proper development in a human-specific manner and are thus promising candidates for understanding the genetic basis of human-specific biology. PMID:24218637

Predicting Active Duty Air Force Pilot Attrition Given an Anticipated Increase in Major Airline Pilot Hiring

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-01-01

of the RAND Corporation. CHILDREN AND FAMILIES EDUCATION AND THE ARTS ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT HEALTH AND HEALTH CARE INFRASTRUCTURE AND...of service changes. This time, the landscape is different. As such, this dissertation intends to illustrate the effect that looming increases in...Accounting Office, 1999a; Grier, 1998). This prediction was bolstered by a free -falling ACP take rate, which ended the year at 26 percent. In a September

Markers of preparatory attention predict visual short-term memory performance.

PubMed

Murray, Alexandra M; Nobre, Anna C; Stokes, Mark G

2011-05-01

Visual short-term memory (VSTM) is limited in capacity. Therefore, it is important to encode only visual information that is most likely to be relevant to behaviour. Here we asked which aspects of selective biasing of VSTM encoding predict subsequent memory-based performance. We measured EEG during a selective VSTM encoding task, in which we varied parametrically the memory load and the precision of recall required to compare a remembered item to a subsequent probe item. On half the trials, a spatial cue indicated that participants only needed to encode items from one hemifield. We observed a typical sequence of markers of anticipatory spatial attention: early attention directing negativity (EDAN), anterior attention directing negativity (ADAN), late directing attention positivity (LDAP); as well as of VSTM maintenance: contralateral delay activity (CDA). We found that individual differences in preparatory brain activity (EDAN/ADAN) predicted cue-related changes in recall accuracy, indexed by memory-probe discrimination sensitivity (d'). Importantly, our parametric manipulation of memory-probe similarity also allowed us to model the behavioural data for each participant, providing estimates for the quality of the memory representation and the probability that an item could be retrieved. We found that selective encoding primarily increased the probability of accurate memory recall; that ERP markers of preparatory attention predicted the cue-related changes in recall probability. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A PBPK Model to Predict Disposition of CYP3A-Metabolized Drugs in Pregnant Women: Verification and Discerning the Site of CYP3A Induction.

PubMed

Ke, A B; Nallani, S C; Zhao, P; Rostami-Hodjegan, A; Unadkat, J D

2012-09-26

Besides logistical and ethical concerns, evaluation of safety and efficacy of medications in pregnant women is complicated by marked changes in pharmacokinetics (PK) of drugs. For example, CYP3A activity is induced during the third trimester (T3). We explored whether a previously published physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model could quantitatively predict PK profiles of CYP3A-metabolized drugs during T3, and discern the site of CYP3A induction (i.e., liver, intestine, or both). The model accounted for gestational age-dependent changes in maternal physiological function and hepatic CYP3A activity. For model verification, mean plasma area under the curve (AUC), peak plasma concentration (Cmax), and trough plasma concentration (Cmin) of midazolam (MDZ), nifedipine (NIF), and indinavir (IDV) were predicted and compared with published studies. The PBPK model successfully predicted MDZ, NIF, and IDV disposition during T3. A sensitivity analysis suggested that CYP3A induction in T3 is most likely hepatic and not intestinal. Our PBPK model is a useful tool to evaluate different dosing regimens during T3 for drugs cleared primarily via CYP3A metabolism.CPT: Pharmacometrics & Systems Pharmacology (2012) 1, e3; doi:10.1038/psp.2012.2; advance online publication 26 September 2012.

Target specific proteochemometric model development for BACE1 - protein flexibility and structural water are critical in virtual screening.

PubMed

Manoharan, Prabu; Chennoju, Kiranmai; Ghoshal, Nanda

2015-07-01

BACE1 is an attractive target in Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment. A rational drug design effort for the inhibition of BACE1 is actively pursued by researchers in both academic and pharmaceutical industries. This continued effort led to the steady accumulation of BACE1 crystal structures, co-complexed with different classes of inhibitors. This wealth of information is used in this study to develop target specific proteochemometric models and these models are exploited for predicting the prospective BACE1 inhibitors. The models developed in this study have performed excellently in predicting the computationally generated poses, separately obtained from single and ensemble docking approaches. The simple protein-ligand contact (SPLC) model outperforms other sophisticated high end models, in virtual screening performance, developed during this study. In an attempt to account for BACE1 protein active site flexibility information in predictive models, we included the change in the area of solvent accessible surface and the change in the volume of solvent accessible surface in our models. The ensemble and single receptor docking results obtained from this study indicate that the structural water mediated interactions improve the virtual screening results. Also, these waters are essential for recapitulating bioactive conformation during docking study. The proteochemometric models developed in this study can be used for the prediction of BACE1 inhibitors, during the early stage of AD drug discovery.

Neural predictors of chocolate intake following chocolate exposure.

PubMed

Frankort, Astrid; Roefs, Anne; Siep, Nicolette; Roebroeck, Alard; Havermans, Remco; Jansen, Anita

2015-04-01

Previous studies have shown that one's brain response to high-calorie food cues can predict long-term weight gain or weight loss. The neural correlates that predict food intake in the short term have, however, hardly been investigated. This study examined which brain regions' activation predicts chocolate intake after participants had been either exposed to real chocolate or to control stimuli during approximately one hour, with interruptions for fMRI measurements. Further we investigated whether the variance in chocolate intake could be better explained by activated brain regions than by self-reported craving. In total, five brain regions correlated with subsequent chocolate intake. The activation of two reward regions (the right caudate and the left frontopolar cortex) correlated positively with intake in the exposure group. The activation of two regions associated with cognitive control (the left dorsolateral and left mid-dorsolateral PFC) correlated negatively with intake in the control group. When the regression analysis was conducted with the exposure and the control group together, an additional region's activation (the right anterior PFC) correlated positively with chocolate intake. In all analyses, the intake variance explained by neural correlates was above and beyond the variance explained by self-reported craving. These results are in line with neuroimaging research showing that brain responses are a better predictor of subsequent intake than self-reported craving. Therefore, our findings might provide for a missing link by associating brain activation, previously shown to predict weight change, with short-term intake. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest cover change prediction using hybrid methodology of geoinformatics and Markov chain model: A case study on sub-Himalayan town Gangtok, India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mukhopadhyay, Anirban; Mondal, Arun; Mukherjee, Sandip; Khatua, Dipam; Ghosh, Subhajit; Mitra, Debasish; Ghosh, Tuhin

2014-08-01

In the Himalayan states of India, with increasing population and activities, large areas of forested land are being converted into other land-use features. There is a definite cause and effect relationship between changing practice for development and changes in land use. So, an estimation of land use dynamics and a futuristic trend pattern is essential. A combination of geospatial and statistical techniques were applied to assess the present and future land use/land cover scenario of Gangtok, the subHimalayan capital of Sikkim. Multi-temporal satellite imageries of the Landsat series were used to map the changes in land use of Gangtok from 1990 to 2010. Only three major land use classes (built-up area and bare land, step cultivated area, and forest) were considered as the most dynamic land use practices of Gangtok. The conventional supervised classification, and spectral indices-based thresholding using NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and SAVI (Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index) were applied along with the accuracy assessments. Markov modelling was applied for prediction of land use/land cover change and was validated. SAVI provides the most accurate estimate, i.e., the difference between predicted and actual data is minimal. Finally, a combination of Markov modelling and SAVI was used to predict the probable land-use scenario in Gangtok in 2020 AD, which indicted that more forest areas will be converted for step cultivation by the year 2020.

Predictors of Exercise Relapse in a College Population.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sullum, Julie; Clark, Matthew M.; King, Teresa K.

2000-01-01

Investigated factors that predicted exercise relapse among college students. Physically active undergraduates completed questionnaires measuring Prochaska's 10 processes for change of exercise, self-efficacy, and decisional balance. Exercise levels were assessed at baseline and 8 weeks later. At baseline, relapsers had significantly lower…

Ecological Forecasting: Microbial Contamination and Atmospheric Loadings of Nutrients to Land and Water

EPA Science Inventory

The development of ecological forecasts, namely, methodologies to predict the chemical, biological, and physical changes in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems is desirable so that effective strategies for reducing the adverse impacts of human activities and extreme natural events...

Motor imagery training: Kinesthetic imagery strategy and inferior parietal fMRI activation.

PubMed

Lebon, Florent; Horn, Ulrike; Domin, Martin; Lotze, Martin

2018-04-01

Motor imagery (MI) is the mental simulation of action frequently used by professionals in different fields. However, with respect to performance, well-controlled functional imaging studies on MI training are sparse. We investigated changes in fMRI representation going along with performance changes of a finger sequence (error and velocity) after MI training in 48 healthy young volunteers. Before training, we tested the vividness of kinesthetic and visual imagery. During tests, participants were instructed to move or to imagine moving the fingers of the right hand in a specific order. During MI training, participants repeatedly imagined the sequence for 15 min. Imaging analysis was performed using a full-factorial design to assess brain changes due to imagery training. We also used regression analyses to identify those who profited from training (performance outcome and gain) with initial imagery scores (vividness) and fMRI activation magnitude during MI at pre-test (MI pre ). After training, error rate decreased and velocity increased. We combined both parameters into a common performance index. FMRI activation in the left inferior parietal lobe (IPL) was associated with MI and increased over time. In addition, fMRI activation in the right IPL during MI pre was associated with high initial kinesthetic vividness. High kinesthetic imagery vividness predicted a high performance after training. In contrast, occipital activation, associated with visual imagery strategies, showed a negative predictive value for performance. Our data echo the importance of high kinesthetic vividness for MI training outcome and consider IPL as a key area during MI and through MI training. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Physical Habitat and Energy Inputs Determine Freshwater Invertebrate Communities in Reference and Cranberry Farm Impacted Northeastern Coastal Zone Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lander, D. M. P.; McCanty, S. T.; Dimino, T. F.; Christian, A. D.

2016-02-01

The River Continuum Concept (RCC) predicts stream biological communities based on dominant physical structures and energy inputs into streams and predicts how these features and corresponding communities change along the stream continuum. Verifying RCC expectations is important for creating valid points of comparison during stream ecosystem evaluation. These reference expectations are critical for restoration projects, such as the restoration of decommissioned cranberry bogs. Our research compares the physical habitat and freshwater invertebrate functional feeding groups (FWIFFG) of reference, active cranberry farming, and cranberry farm passive restoration sites in Northeastern Coastal Zone streams of Massachusetts to the specific RCC FWIFFG predictions. We characterized stream physical habitat using a semi-quantitative habitat characterization protocol and sampled freshwater invertebrates using the U.S. EPA standard 20-jab multi-habitat protocol. We expected that stream habitat would be most homogeneous at active farming stations, intermediate at restoration stations, and most heterogeneous at reference stations. Furthermore, we expected reference stream FWIFFG would be accurately predicted by the RCC and distributions at restoration and active sites would vary significantly. Habitat data was analyzed using a principle component analysis and results confirmed our predictions showing more homogeneous habitat for the active and reference stations, while showing a more heterogeneous habitat at the reference stations. The FWIFFG chi-squared analysis showed significant deviation from our specific RCC FWIFFG predictions. Because published FWIFFG distributions did not match our empirical values for a least disturbed Northeastern Coastal Zone headwater stream, using our data as a community structure template for current and future restoration projects is not recommend without further considerations.

Remembering forward: Neural correlates of memory and prediction in human motor adaptation

PubMed Central

Scheidt, Robert A; Zimbelman, Janice L; Salowitz, Nicole M G; Suminski, Aaron J; Mosier, Kristine M; Houk, James; Simo, Lucia

2011-01-01

We used functional MR imaging (FMRI), a robotic manipulandum and systems identification techniques to examine neural correlates of predictive compensation for spring-like loads during goal-directed wrist movements in neurologically-intact humans. Although load changed unpredictably from one trial to the next, subjects nevertheless used sensorimotor memories from recent movements to predict and compensate upcoming loads. Prediction enabled subjects to adapt performance so that the task was accomplished with minimum effort. Population analyses of functional images revealed a distributed, bilateral network of cortical and subcortical activity supporting predictive load compensation during visual target capture. Cortical regions - including prefrontal, parietal and hippocampal cortices - exhibited trial-by-trial fluctuations in BOLD signal consistent with the storage and recall of sensorimotor memories or “states” important for spatial working memory. Bilateral activations in associative regions of the striatum demonstrated temporal correlation with the magnitude of kinematic performance error (a signal that could drive reward-optimizing reinforcement learning and the prospective scaling of previously learned motor programs). BOLD signal correlations with load prediction were observed in the cerebellar cortex and red nuclei (consistent with the idea that these structures generate adaptive fusimotor signals facilitating cancellation of expected proprioceptive feedback, as required for conditional feedback adjustments to ongoing motor commands and feedback error learning). Analysis of single subject images revealed that predictive activity was at least as likely to be observed in more than one of these neural systems as in just one. We conclude therefore that motor adaptation is mediated by predictive compensations supported by multiple, distributed, cortical and subcortical structures. PMID:21840405

The marketing activities of hospitals: environmental, organizational, and managerial influences.

PubMed

Myrtle, R C; Martinez, C F

1991-03-01

This article reports the results of a study designed to examine the relationship of environmental, organizational and structural factors, perceptions of key decision makers about competitive conditions, and changes in operational performance with the level of the marketing activities engaged in by 145 California hospitals. Measures assessing the impact of environmental conditions and the perception of the key decision makers were found to be related to the marketing activities of the organization. However, the relationship between measures which examined the structural and performance impacts on the marketing activities did not demonstrate the same predictive ability. The results suggest that marketing activities were affected by the key decision maker's assessment of the competitive nature of the environment, influence of key stakeholders, and tangible changes in the organization's task environment. Performance and other measures were not found to be as influential in determining these activities.

Cognitive predictors of everyday functioning in older adults: results from the ACTIVE Cognitive Intervention Trial.

PubMed

Gross, Alden L; Rebok, George W; Unverzagt, Frederick W; Willis, Sherry L; Brandt, Jason

2011-09-01

The present study sought to predict changes in everyday functioning using cognitive tests. Data from the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly trial were used to examine the extent to which competence in different cognitive domains--memory, inductive reasoning, processing speed, and global mental status--predicts prospectively measured everyday functioning among older adults. Coefficients of determination for baseline levels and trajectories of everyday functioning were estimated using parallel process latent growth models. Each cognitive domain independently predicts a significant proportion of the variance in baseline and trajectory change of everyday functioning, with inductive reasoning explaining the most variance (R2 = .175) in baseline functioning and memory explaining the most variance (R2 = .057) in changes in everyday functioning. Inductive reasoning is an important determinant of current everyday functioning in community-dwelling older adults, suggesting that successful performance in daily tasks is critically dependent on executive cognitive function. On the other hand, baseline memory function is more important in determining change over time in everyday functioning, suggesting that some participants with low baseline memory function may reflect a subgroup with incipient progressive neurologic disease.

Relating Neuronal to Behavioral Performance: Variability of Optomotor Responses in the Blowfly

PubMed Central

Rosner, Ronny; Warzecha, Anne-Kathrin

2011-01-01

Behavioral responses of an animal vary even when they are elicited by the same stimulus. This variability is due to stochastic processes within the nervous system and to the changing internal states of the animal. To what extent does the variability of neuronal responses account for the overall variability at the behavioral level? To address this question we evaluate the neuronal variability at the output stage of the blowfly's (Calliphora vicina) visual system by recording from motion-sensitive interneurons mediating head optomotor responses. By means of a simple modelling approach representing the sensory-motor transformation, we predict head movements on the basis of the recorded responses of motion-sensitive neurons and compare the variability of the predicted head movements with that of the observed ones. Large gain changes of optomotor head movements have previously been shown to go along with changes in the animals' activity state. Our modelling approach substantiates that these gain changes are imposed downstream of the motion-sensitive neurons of the visual system. Moreover, since predicted head movements are clearly more reliable than those actually observed, we conclude that substantial variability is introduced downstream of the visual system. PMID:22066014

An empirical evaluation of two theoretically-based hypotheses on the directional association between self-worth and hope.

PubMed

McDavid, Lindley; McDonough, Meghan H; Smith, Alan L

2015-06-01

Fostering self-worth and hope are important goals of positive youth development (PYD) efforts, yet intervention design is complicated by contrasting theoretical hypotheses regarding the directional association between these constructs. Therefore, within a longitudinal design we tested: (1) that self-worth predicts changes in hope (self theory; Harter, 1999), and (2) that hope predicts changes in self-worth (hope theory; Snyder, 2002) over time. Youth (N = 321; Mage = 10.33 years) in a physical activity-based PYD program completed surveys 37-45 days prior to and on the second day and third-to-last day of the program. A latent variable panel model that included autoregressive and cross-lagged paths indicated that self-worth was a significant predictor of change in hope, but hope did not predict change in self-worth. Therefore, the directional association between self-worth and hope is better explained by self-theory and PYD programs should aim to enhance perceptions of self-worth to build perceptions of hope. Copyright © 2015 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of Enzyme Mutant Activity Using Computational Mutagenesis and Incremental Transduction

PubMed Central

Basit, Nada; Wechsler, Harry

2011-01-01

Wet laboratory mutagenesis to determine enzyme activity changes is expensive and time consuming. This paper expands on standard one-shot learning by proposing an incremental transductive method (T2bRF) for the prediction of enzyme mutant activity during mutagenesis using Delaunay tessellation and 4-body statistical potentials for representation. Incremental learning is in tune with both eScience and actual experimentation, as it accounts for cumulative annotation effects of enzyme mutant activity over time. The experimental results reported, using cross-validation, show that overall the incremental transductive method proposed, using random forest as base classifier, yields better results compared to one-shot learning methods. T2bRF is shown to yield 90% on T4 and LAC (and 86% on HIV-1). This is significantly better than state-of-the-art competing methods, whose performance yield is at 80% or less using the same datasets. PMID:22007208

Towards intensive parenting? Changes in the composition and determinants of mothers' and fathers' time with children 1992-2006.

PubMed

Craig, Lyn; Powell, Abigail; Smyth, Ciara

2014-09-01

Contemporary expectations of good parenting hold that focused, intensive parental attention is essential to children's development. Parental input is viewed as a key determinant in children's social, psychological and educational outcomes, with the early years particularly crucial. However, increased rates of maternal employment mean that more parents are juggling work and family commitments and have less non-work time available to devote to children. Yet studies find that parental childcare time has increased over recent decades. In this paper, we explore the detail of this trend using data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) Time Use Survey (TUS), 1992 and 2006. To investigate whether discourses on intensive parenting are reflected in behaviour, we examine a greater range of parent-child activities than has been undertaken to date, looking at trends in active childcare time (disaggregated into talk-based, physical and accompanying care activities); time in childcare as a secondary activity; time spent in the company of children in leisure activities; and time spent in the company of children in total. We also investigate whether the influence of factors known to predict parental time with children (gender, education, employment status and the age of children) have changed over time. We contextualize our analyses within social and economic trends in Australia and find a compositional change in parental time, with more active childcare occurring within less overall time, which suggests more intensive, child-centred parenting. Fathers' parent-child time, particularly in physical care, increased more than mothers' (from a much lower base), and tertiary education no longer predicts significantly higher childcare time. © London School of Economics and Political Science 2014.

Personality traits and individual differences predict threat-induced changes in postural control.

PubMed

Zaback, Martin; Cleworth, Taylor W; Carpenter, Mark G; Adkin, Allan L

2015-04-01

This study explored whether specific personality traits and individual differences could predict changes in postural control when presented with a height-induced postural threat. Eighty-two healthy young adults completed questionnaires to assess trait anxiety, trait movement reinvestment (conscious motor processing, movement self-consciousness), physical risk-taking, and previous experience with height-related activities. Tests of static (quiet standing) and anticipatory (rise to toes) postural control were completed under low and high postural threat conditions. Personality traits and individual differences significantly predicted height-induced changes in static, but not anticipatory postural control. Individuals less prone to taking physical risks were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at higher frequencies and smaller amplitudes. Individuals more prone to conscious motor processing were more likely to lean further away from the platform edge and sway at larger amplitudes. Individuals more self-conscious about their movement appearance were more likely to sway at smaller amplitudes. Evidence is also provided that relationships between physical risk-taking and changes in static postural control are mediated through changes in fear of falling and physiological arousal. Results from this study may have indirect implications for balance assessment and treatment; however, further work exploring these factors in patient populations is necessary. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantitative structure-activity relationship models that stand the test of time.

PubMed

Davis, Andrew M; Wood, David J

2013-04-01

The pharmaceutical industry is in a period of intense change. While this has many drivers, attrition through the development process continues to be an important pressure. The emerging definitions of "compound quality" that are based on retrospective analyses of developmental attrition have highlighted a new direction for medicinal chemistry and the paradigm of "quality at the point of design". The time has come for retrospective analyses to catalyze prospective action. Quality at the point of design places pressure on the quality of our predictive models. Empirical QSAR models when built with care provide true predictive control, but their accuracy and precision can be improved. Here we describe AstraZeneca's experience of automation in QSAR model building and validation, and how an informatics system can provide a step-change in predictive power to project design teams, if they choose to use it.

Action understanding and active inference

PubMed Central

Mattout, Jérémie; Kilner, James

2012-01-01

We have suggested that the mirror-neuron system might be usefully understood as implementing Bayes-optimal perception of actions emitted by oneself or others. To substantiate this claim, we present neuronal simulations that show the same representations can prescribe motor behavior and encode motor intentions during action–observation. These simulations are based on the free-energy formulation of active inference, which is formally related to predictive coding. In this scheme, (generalised) states of the world are represented as trajectories. When these states include motor trajectories they implicitly entail intentions (future motor states). Optimizing the representation of these intentions enables predictive coding in a prospective sense. Crucially, the same generative models used to make predictions can be deployed to predict the actions of self or others by simply changing the bias or precision (i.e. attention) afforded to proprioceptive signals. We illustrate these points using simulations of handwriting to illustrate neuronally plausible generation and recognition of itinerant (wandering) motor trajectories. We then use the same simulations to produce synthetic electrophysiological responses to violations of intentional expectations. Our results affirm that a Bayes-optimal approach provides a principled framework, which accommodates current thinking about the mirror-neuron system. Furthermore, it endorses the general formulation of action as active inference. PMID:21327826

A specific, transmembrane interface regulates fibroblast activation protein (FAP) homodimerization, trafficking and exopeptidase activity.

PubMed

Wonganu, Benjamaporn; Berger, Bryan W

2016-08-01

Fibroblast activation protein (FAP) is a cell-surface serine protease which promotes invasiveness of certain epithelial cancers and is therefore a potential target for cancer drug development and delivery. Unlike dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV), FAP exhibits prolyl endopeptidase activity and is active as a homodimer with specificity for type I collagen. The mechanism that regulates FAP homodimerization and its relation to prolyl endopeptidase activity is not completely understood. Here, we investigate key residues in the FAP TM domain that may be significant for FAP homodimerization. Mutations to predicted TM interfacial residues (G10L, S14L, and A18L) comprising a small-X3-small motif reduced FAP TM-CYTO dimerization relative to wild type as measured using the AraTM assay, whereas predicted off-interface residues showed no significant change from wild type. The results implied that the predicted small-X3-small dimer interface affect stabilization of FAP TM-CYTO homodimerization. Compared with FAPwild-type, the interfacial TM residue G10L significantly decreased FAP endopeptidase activity more than 25%, and also reduced cell-surface versus intracellular expression relative to other interfacial residues S14L and A18L. Thus, our results suggest FAP dimerization is important for both trafficking and protease activity, and is dependent on a specific TM interface. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Understanding the role of wildland fire, insects, and disease in predicting climate change effects on whitebark pine: Simulating vegetation, disturbance, and climate dynamics in a northern Rocky Mountain landscape

Treesearch

Robert Keane; Rachel Loehman

2010-01-01

Climate changes are projected to profoundly influence vegetation patterns and community compositions, either directly through increased species mortality and shifts in species distributions, or indirectly through disturbance dynamics such as increased wildfire activity and extent, shifting fire regimes, and pathogenesis. High-elevation landscapes have been shown to be...

Medial Orbitofrontal Neurons Preferentially Signal Cues Predicting Changes in Reward during Unblocking

PubMed Central

Lopatina, Nina; McDannald, Michael A.; Styer, Clay V.; Peterson, Jacob F.; Sadacca, Brian F.; Cheer, Joseph F.

2016-01-01

The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) has been broadly implicated in the ability to use the current value of expected outcomes to guide behavior. Although value correlates have been prominently reported in lateral OFC, they are more often associated with more medial areas. Further, recent studies in primates have suggested a dissociation in which the lateral OFC is involved in credit assignment and representation of reward identity and more medial areas are critical to representing value. Previously, we used unblocking to test more specifically what information about outcomes is represented by OFC neurons in rats; consistent with the proposed dichotomy between the lateral and medial OFC, we found relatively little linear value coding in the lateral OFC (Lopatina et al., 2015). Here we have repeated this experiment, recording in the medial OFC, to test whether such value signals might be found there. Neurons were recorded in an unblocking task as rats learned about cues that signaled either more, less, or the same amount of reward. We found that medial OFC neurons acquired responses to these cues; however, these responses did not signal different reward values across cues. Surprisingly, we found that cells developed responses to cues predicting a change, particularly a decrease, in reward value. This is consistent with a special role for medial OFC in representing current value to support devaluation/revaluation sensitive changes in behavior. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT This study uniquely examines encoding in rodent mOFC at the single-unit level in response to cues that predict more, less, or no change in reward in rats during training in a Pavlovian unblocking task, finding more cells responding to change-predictive cues and stronger activity in response to cues predictive of less reward. PMID:27511013

Microbial models with data-driven parameters predict stronger soil carbon responses to climate change.

PubMed

Hararuk, Oleksandra; Smith, Matthew J; Luo, Yiqi

2015-06-01

Long-term carbon (C) cycle feedbacks to climate depend on the future dynamics of soil organic carbon (SOC). Current models show low predictive accuracy at simulating contemporary SOC pools, which can be improved through parameter estimation. However, major uncertainty remains in global soil responses to climate change, particularly uncertainty in how the activity of soil microbial communities will respond. To date, the role of microbes in SOC dynamics has been implicitly described by decay rate constants in most conventional global carbon cycle models. Explicitly including microbial biomass dynamics into C cycle model formulations has shown potential to improve model predictive performance when assessed against global SOC databases. This study aimed to data-constrained parameters of two soil microbial models, evaluate the improvements in performance of those calibrated models in predicting contemporary carbon stocks, and compare the SOC responses to climate change and their uncertainties between microbial and conventional models. Microbial models with calibrated parameters explained 51% of variability in the observed total SOC, whereas a calibrated conventional model explained 41%. The microbial models, when forced with climate and soil carbon input predictions from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), produced stronger soil C responses to 95 years of climate change than any of the 11 CMIP5 models. The calibrated microbial models predicted between 8% (2-pool model) and 11% (4-pool model) soil C losses compared with CMIP5 model projections which ranged from a 7% loss to a 22.6% gain. Lastly, we observed unrealistic oscillatory SOC dynamics in the 2-pool microbial model. The 4-pool model also produced oscillations, but they were less prominent and could be avoided, depending on the parameter values. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Elucidating Inherent Uncertainties in Data Assimilation for Predictions Incorporating Non-stationary Processes - Focus on Predictive Phenology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lowman, L.; Barros, A. P.

2017-12-01

Data assimilation (DA) is the widely accepted procedure for estimating parameters within predictive models because of the adaptability and uncertainty quantification offered by Bayesian methods. DA applications in phenology modeling offer critical insights into how extreme weather or changes in climate impact the vegetation life cycle. Changes in leaf onset and senescence, root phenology, and intermittent leaf shedding imply large changes in the surface radiative, water, and carbon budgets at multiple scales. Models of leaf phenology require concurrent atmospheric and soil conditions to determine how biophysical plant properties respond to changes in temperature, light and water demand. Presently, climatological records for fraction of photosynthetically active radiation (FPAR) and leaf area index (LAI), the modelled states indicative of plant phenology, are not available. Further, DA models are typically trained on short periods of record (e.g. less than 10 years). Using limited records with a DA framework imposes non-stationarity on estimated parameters and the resulting predicted model states. This talk discusses how uncertainty introduced by the inherent non-stationarity of the modeled processes propagates through a land-surface hydrology model coupled to a predictive phenology model. How water demand is accounted for in the upscaling of DA model inputs and analysis period serves as a key source of uncertainty in the FPAR and LAI predictions. Parameters estimated from different DA effectively calibrate a plant water-use strategy within the land-surface hydrology model. For example, when extreme droughts are included in the DA period, the plants are trained to uptake water, transpire, and assimilate carbon under favorable conditions and quickly shut down at the onset of water stress.

Line active hybrid lipids determine domain size in phase separation of saturated and unsaturated lipids.

PubMed

Brewster, Robert; Safran, Samuel A

2010-03-17

A simple model of the line activity of a hybrid lipid (e.g., POPC) with one fully saturated chain and one partially unsaturated chain demonstrates that these lipids preferentially pack at curved interfaces between phase-separated saturated and unsaturated domains. We predict that the domain sizes typically range from tens to hundreds of nm, depending on molecular interactions and parameters such as molecular volume and area per headgroup in the bulk fluid phase. The role of cholesterol is taken into account by an effective change in the headgroup areas and the domain sizes are predicted to increase with cholesterol concentration. Copyright 2010 Biophysical Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Crystal structure of Bacillus anthracis virulence regulator AtxA and effects of phosphorylated histidines on multimerization and activity

PubMed Central

Hammerstrom, Troy G.; Horton, Lori B.; Swick, Michelle C.; Joachimiak, Andrzej; Osipiuk, Jerzy; Koehler, Theresa M.

2015-01-01

Summary The Bacillus anthracis virulence regulator AtxA controls transcription of the anthrax toxin genes and capsule biosynthesis operon. AtxA activity is elevated during growth in media containing glucose and CO2/bicarbonate, and there is a positive correlation between the CO2/bicarbonate signal, AtxA activity, and homomultimerization. AtxA activity is also affected by phosphorylation at specific histidines. We show that AtxA crystallizes as a dimer. Distinct folds associated with predicted DNA-binding domains (HTH1 and HTH2) and phosphoenolpyruvate: carbohydrate phosphotransferase system-regulated domains (PRD1 and PRD2) are apparent. We tested AtxA variants containing single and double phosphomimetic (His → Asp) and phosphoablative (His → Ala) amino acid changes for activity in B. anthracis cultures and for protein-protein interactions in cell lysates. Reduced activity of AtxA H199A, lack of multimerization and activity of AtxAH379D variants, and predicted structural changes associated with phosphorylation support a model for control of AtxA function. We propose that (1) in the AtxA dimer, phosphorylation of H199 in PRD1 affects HTH2 positioning, influencing DNA-binding; and (2) phosphorylation of H379 in PRD2 disrupts dimer formation. The AtxA structure is the first reported high-resolution full-length structure of a PRD-containing regulator and can serve as a model for proteins of this family, especially those that link virulence to bacterial metabolism. PMID:25402841

Crystal structure of Bacillus anthracis virulence regulator AtxA and effects of phosphorylated histidines on multimerization and activity.

PubMed

Hammerstrom, Troy G; Horton, Lori B; Swick, Michelle C; Joachimiak, Andrzej; Osipiuk, Jerzy; Koehler, Theresa M

2015-02-01

The Bacillus anthracis virulence regulator AtxA controls transcription of the anthrax toxin genes and capsule biosynthetic operon. AtxA activity is elevated during growth in media containing glucose and CO(2)/bicarbonate, and there is a positive correlation between the CO(2)/bicarbonate signal, AtxA activity and homomultimerization. AtxA activity is also affected by phosphorylation at specific histidines. We show that AtxA crystallizes as a dimer. Distinct folds associated with predicted DNA-binding domains (HTH1 and HTH2) and phosphoenolpyruvate: carbohydrate phosphotransferase system-regulated domains (PRD1 and PRD2) are apparent. We tested AtxA variants containing single and double phosphomimetic (His→Asp) and phosphoablative (His→Ala) amino acid changes for activity in B. anthracis cultures and for protein-protein interactions in cell lysates. Reduced activity of AtxA H199A, lack of multimerization and activity of AtxAH379D variants, and predicted structural changes associated with phosphorylation support a model for control of AtxA function. We propose that (i) in the AtxA dimer, phosphorylation of H199 in PRD1 affects HTH2 positioning, influencing DNA-binding; and (ii) phosphorylation of H379 in PRD2 disrupts dimer formation. The AtxA structure is the first reported high-resolution full-length structure of a PRD-containing regulator, and can serve as a model for proteins of this family, especially those that link virulence to bacterial metabolism. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Shaping Neuronal Network Activity by Presynaptic Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Ashery, Uri

2015-01-01

Neuronal microcircuits generate oscillatory activity, which has been linked to basic functions such as sleep, learning and sensorimotor gating. Although synaptic release processes are well known for their ability to shape the interaction between neurons in microcircuits, most computational models do not simulate the synaptic transmission process directly and hence cannot explain how changes in synaptic parameters alter neuronal network activity. In this paper, we present a novel neuronal network model that incorporates presynaptic release mechanisms, such as vesicle pool dynamics and calcium-dependent release probability, to model the spontaneous activity of neuronal networks. The model, which is based on modified leaky integrate-and-fire neurons, generates spontaneous network activity patterns, which are similar to experimental data and robust under changes in the model's primary gain parameters such as excitatory postsynaptic potential and connectivity ratio. Furthermore, it reliably recreates experimental findings and provides mechanistic explanations for data obtained from microelectrode array recordings, such as network burst termination and the effects of pharmacological and genetic manipulations. The model demonstrates how elevated asynchronous release, but not spontaneous release, synchronizes neuronal network activity and reveals that asynchronous release enhances utilization of the recycling vesicle pool to induce the network effect. The model further predicts a positive correlation between vesicle priming at the single-neuron level and burst frequency at the network level; this prediction is supported by experimental findings. Thus, the model is utilized to reveal how synaptic release processes at the neuronal level govern activity patterns and synchronization at the network level. PMID:26372048

Inter-comparison of dynamic models for radionuclide transfer to marine biota in a Fukushima accident scenario

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vives i Batlle, J.; Beresford, N. A.; Beaugelin-Seiller, K.

We report an inter-comparison of eight models designed to predict the radiological exposure of radionuclides in marine biota. The models were required to simulate dynamically the uptake and turnover of radionuclides by marine organisms. Model predictions of radionuclide uptake and turnover using kinetic calculations based on biological half-life (TB1/2) and/or more complex metabolic modelling approaches were used to predict activity concentrations and, consequently, dose rates of 90Sr, 131I and 137Cs to fish, crustaceans, macroalgae and molluscs under circumstances where the water concentrations are changing with time. For comparison, the ERICA Tool, a model commonly used in environmental assessment, and whichmore » uses equilibrium concentration ratios, was also used. As input to the models we used hydrodynamic forecasts of water and sediment activity concentrations using a simulated scenario reflecting the Fukushima accident releases. Although model variability is important, the intercomparison gives logical results, in that the dynamic models predict consistently a pattern of delayed rise of activity concentration in biota and slow decline instead of the instantaneous equilibrium with the activity concentration in seawater predicted by the ERICA Tool. The differences between ERICA and the dynamic models increase the shorter the TB1/2 becomes; however, there is significant variability between models, underpinned by parameter and methodological differences between them. The need to validate the dynamic models used in this intercomparison has been highlighted, particularly in regards to optimisation of the model biokinetic parameters.« less

Demographic and lifestyle predictors of body mass index among offshore oil industry workers: cross-sectional and longitudinal findings.

PubMed

Parkes, Katharine R

2003-05-01

Significant overweight among offshore workers on North Sea oil and gas installations has been linked to high calorie intake, lack of active leisure-time pursuits, and environmental factors conducive to weight gain. However, the prevalence of overweight among offshore workers has not been examined in recent data, and no longitudinal studies of body mass index (BMI) in this occupational group have been reported. Aims The present study sought to examine BMI levels in a sample of UK offshore personnel, and to evaluate demographic factors, smoking and work-related physical activity as predictors of BMI, and 5 year change in BMI. Survey data (including age, education, marital status, work-related physical activity and height/weight) were collected in 1995 from male workers on 17 North Sea installations (n = 1581, 83% response rate); follow-up data were obtained in 2000 (n = 354, 34.9% of the potential sample). Overall mean BMI was 25.6 (2.8) kg/m(2): rates of obesity (BMI > 30) and overweight (BMI = 25-30) were 7.5 and 47.3%, respectively. Mean age was 38.7 (8.9) years; linear and quadratic age terms predicted BMI. Age-adjusted BMI values were very similar to those reported from other offshore studies over the past 15 years. Age, marital status, education, smoking and physical activity significantly predicted baseline BMI, but only age (and some interactive effects) predicted 5 year BMI change. The present age-adjusted BMI values were closely similar to those found offshore in the mid-1980s, but also to recent national data; thus, North Sea personnel do not appear to reflect current population trends towards increased BMI levels. This result accords with the emphasis now given to health promotion (particularly dietary change) on offshore installations; the present findings also highlight the need to focus these initiatives on workers with sedentary jobs and/or low education.

Dissolution of multi-component LNAPL gasolines: The effects of weathering and composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lekmine, Greg; Bastow, Trevor P.; Johnston, Colin D.; Davis, Greg B.

2014-05-01

The composition of light non-aqueous phase liquid (LNAPL) gasoline and other petroleum products changes profoundly over their life once released into aquifers. However limited attention has been given to how such changes affect key parameters such as the activity coefficients which control partitioning of components of petroleum fuel into groundwater and are used to predict long-term risk from fuel releases. Laboratory experiments were conducted on a range of fresh, weathered and synthetic gasoline mixtures designed to mimic the expected changes in composition in an aquifer. Weathered gasoline created under controlled evaporation and water washing, and naturally weathered gasoline, were investigated. Equilibrium concentrations in water and molar fractions in the gasoline mixtures were compared with equilibrium concentrations predicted by Raoult's law assuming ideal behaviour of the solutions. The experiments carried out allowed the relative sensitivity of the activity coefficients of key risk drivers such as benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene and xylene (BTEX) compounds to be quantified with respect to the presence of other types of compounds and where the source LNAPL had undergone different types of weathering. Results differed for the mixtures examined but in some cases higher than predicted dissolved equilibrium concentrations showed non-ideal behaviour for toluene, benzene and xylenes. Comparison of the activity coefficients showed that the naturally weathered gasoline and a 50% evaporated unleaded gasoline present a similar range of values varying between 1.0 and 1.2, suggesting close to ideal partitioning between the LNAPL and water. The fresh and water-washed gasoline had higher values for the activity coefficient, from 1.2 to 1.4, indicating non-ideal partitioning. Results from synthetic mixtures demonstrated that these differences could be due to the different molar fractions of the nC5 and nC6 aliphatic hydrocarbons acting on the molecular interactions, while differences in molar volumes seemed to have less of an influence on ideality.

The influence of a short-term gluten-free diet on the human gut microbiome.

PubMed

Bonder, Marc Jan; Tigchelaar, Ettje F; Cai, Xianghang; Trynka, Gosia; Cenit, Maria C; Hrdlickova, Barbara; Zhong, Huanzi; Vatanen, Tommi; Gevers, Dirk; Wijmenga, Cisca; Wang, Yang; Zhernakova, Alexandra

2016-04-21

A gluten-free diet (GFD) is the most commonly adopted special diet worldwide. It is an effective treatment for coeliac disease and is also often followed by individuals to alleviate gastrointestinal complaints. It is known there is an important link between diet and the gut microbiome, but it is largely unknown how a switch to a GFD affects the human gut microbiome. We studied changes in the gut microbiomes of 21 healthy volunteers who followed a GFD for four weeks. We collected nine stool samples from each participant: one at baseline, four during the GFD period, and four when they returned to their habitual diet (HD), making a total of 189 samples. We determined microbiome profiles using 16S rRNA sequencing and then processed the samples for taxonomic and imputed functional composition. Additionally, in all 189 samples, six gut health-related biomarkers were measured. Inter-individual variation in the gut microbiota remained stable during this short-term GFD intervention. A number of taxon-specific differences were seen during the GFD: the most striking shift was seen for the family Veillonellaceae (class Clostridia), which was significantly reduced during the intervention (p = 2.81 × 10(-05)). Seven other taxa also showed significant changes; the majority of them are known to play a role in starch metabolism. We saw stronger differences in pathway activities: 21 predicted pathway activity scores showed significant association to the change in diet. We observed strong relations between the predicted activity of pathways and biomarker measurements. A GFD changes the gut microbiome composition and alters the activity of microbial pathways.

Weight-control behaviors and subsequent weight change among adolescents and young adult females123

PubMed Central

Haines, Jess; Rosner, Bernard; Willett, Walter C

2010-01-01

Background: Little is known about the effectiveness of behavioral strategies to prevent long-term weight gain among adolescents and young adults. Objective: The objective was to assess the relation of dietary and physical activity weight-control strategies, alone and together, with subsequent weight change. Design: This was a prospective study of 4456 female adolescents and young adults aged 14–22 y in the ongoing Growing Up Today Study. Weight-control behaviors, including dietary approaches and physical activity, were self-reported in 2001 and were used to predict weight change from 2001 to 2005. Results: In 2001–2002, 23.7% of female adolescents and young adults were trying to maintain their weight and another 54.4% were trying to lose weight. Approximately 25% used each of the following weight-control strategies: not eating snacks, following low-calorie or low-fat diets, and limiting portion sizes. In addition, 47.7% reported exercising at least occasionally for weight control. During 4 y of follow-up, participants gained an average of 3.3 kg. None of the dietary approaches to weight control predicted less weight change; however, females who exercised ≥5 d/wk gained significantly less weight than did their peers (−0.9 kg; 95% CI: −1.4, −0.4). The most successful strategy for weight-gain prevention among the females was to limit portion sizes (−1.9 kg; 95% CI: −2.6, −1.1) combined with frequent exercise. Conclusions: Our results suggest that physical activity is a necessary strategy for long-term weight control among adolescents and young adult females. Combining dietary weight-control approaches with physical activity is the most effective method for reducing weight gain. PMID:19889827

SEARCH: Study of Environmental Arctic Change--A System-scale, Cross-disciplinary Arctic Research Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shnoro, R. S.; Eicken, H.; Francis, J. A.; Scambos, T. A.; Schuur, E. A.; Straneo, F.; Wiggins, H. V.

2013-12-01

SEARCH is an interdisciplinary, interagency program that works with academic and government agency scientists and stakeholders to plan, conduct, and synthesize studies of Arctic change. Over the past three years, SEARCH has developed a new vision and mission, a set of prioritized cross-disciplinary 5-year goals, an integrated set of activities, and an organizational structure. The vision of SEARCH is to provide scientific understanding of arctic environmental change to help society understand and respond to a rapidly changing Arctic. SEARCH's 5-year science goals include: 1. Improve understanding, advance prediction, and explore consequences of changing Arctic sea ice. 2. Document and understand how degradation of near-surface permafrost will affect Arctic and global systems. 3. Improve predictions of future land-ice loss and impacts on sea level. 4. Analyze societal and policy implications of Arctic environmental change. Action Teams organized around each of the 5-year goals will serve as standing groups responsible for implementing specific goal activities. Members will be drawn from academia, different agencies and stakeholders, with a range of disciplinary backgrounds and perspectives. 'Arctic Futures 2050' scenarios tasks will describe plausible future states of the arctic system based on recent trajectories and projected changes. These scenarios will combine a range of data including climate model output, paleo-data, results from data synthesis and systems modeling, as well as expert scientific and traditional knowledge. Current activities include: - Arctic Observing Network (AON) - coordinating a system of atmospheric, land- and ocean-based environmental monitoring capabilities that will significantly advance our observations of arctic environmental conditions. - Arctic Sea Ice Outlook - an international effort that provides monthly summer reports synthesizing community estimates of the expected sea ice minimum. A newly-launched Sea Ice Prediction Network will create a network of scientists and stakeholders to generate, assess and communicate Arctic seasonal sea ice forecasts. - Collaboration with the Interagency Arctic Research Policy Committee (IARPC) to implement mutual science goals. SEARCH is sponsored by 8 U.S. agencies, including: the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Department of Defense, the Department of Energy, the Department of the Interior, the Smithsonian Institution, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The U.S. Arctic Research Commission participates as an observer. For more information: http://www.arcus.org/search.

Interplay of activation kinetics and the derivative conductance determines resonance properties of neurons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pena, Rodrigo F. O.; Ceballos, Cesar C.; Lima, Vinicius; Roque, Antonio C.

2018-04-01

In a neuron with hyperpolarization activated current (Ih), the correct input frequency leads to an enhancement of the output response. This behavior is known as resonance and is well described by the neuronal impedance. In a simple neuron model we derive equations for the neuron's resonance and we link its frequency and existence with the biophysical properties of Ih. For a small voltage change, the component of the ratio of current change to voltage change (d I /d V ) due to the voltage-dependent conductance change (d g /d V ) is known as derivative conductance (GhDer). We show that both GhDer and the current activation kinetics (characterized by the activation time constant τh) are mainly responsible for controlling the frequency and existence of resonance. The increment of both factors (GhDer and τh) greatly contributes to the appearance of resonance. We also demonstrate that resonance is voltage dependent due to the voltage dependence of GhDer. Our results have important implications and can be used to predict and explain resonance properties of neurons with the Ih current.

Role of the adverse outcome pathway framework in the validation of predictive biomarkers

EPA Science Inventory

Gene expression, enzyme activities, changes in endogenous metabolite or hormone titers, altered histology, etc. are widely used as biomarkers, but rarely, if ever, used for regulatory decision-making or to define management objectives. The disconnect between the measurements comm...

Impact of an Ecohydrology Classroom Activity on Middle School Students' Understanding of Evapotranspiration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Villegas, Juan Camilo; Morrison, Clayton T.; Gerst, Katharine L.; Beal, Carole R.; Espeleta, Javier E.; Adamson, Matt

2010-01-01

Current trends in ecological research emphasize interdisciplinary approaches for assessing effects of present and predicted environmental changes. One such emerging interdisciplinary field is the discipline of ecohydrology, which studies the feedbacks and interactions between ecological and hydrological processes. However, interdisciplinary…

A low computation cost method for seizure prediction.

PubMed

Zhang, Yanli; Zhou, Weidong; Yuan, Qi; Wu, Qi

2014-10-01

The dynamic changes of electroencephalograph (EEG) signals in the period prior to epileptic seizures play a major role in the seizure prediction. This paper proposes a low computation seizure prediction algorithm that combines a fractal dimension with a machine learning algorithm. The presented seizure prediction algorithm extracts the Higuchi fractal dimension (HFD) of EEG signals as features to classify the patient's preictal or interictal state with Bayesian linear discriminant analysis (BLDA) as a classifier. The outputs of BLDA are smoothed by a Kalman filter for reducing possible sporadic and isolated false alarms and then the final prediction results are produced using a thresholding procedure. The algorithm was evaluated on the intracranial EEG recordings of 21 patients in the Freiburg EEG database. For seizure occurrence period of 30 min and 50 min, our algorithm obtained an average sensitivity of 86.95% and 89.33%, an average false prediction rate of 0.20/h, and an average prediction time of 24.47 min and 39.39 min, respectively. The results confirm that the changes of HFD can serve as a precursor of ictal activities and be used for distinguishing between interictal and preictal epochs. Both HFD and BLDA classifier have a low computational complexity. All of these make the proposed algorithm suitable for real-time seizure prediction. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Intergroup Contact and Social Change: Implications of Negative and Positive Contact for Collective Action in Advantaged and Disadvantaged Groups.

PubMed

Reimer, Nils Karl; Becker, Julia C; Benz, Angelika; Christ, Oliver; Dhont, Kristof; Klocke, Ulrich; Neji, Sybille; Rychlowska, Magdalena; Schmid, Katharina; Hewstone, Miles

2017-01-01

Previous research has shown that (a) positive intergroup contact with an advantaged group can discourage collective action among disadvantaged-group members and (b) positive intergroup contact can encourage advantaged-group members to take action on behalf of disadvantaged outgroups. Two studies investigated the effects of negative as well as positive intergroup contact. Study 1 ( n = 482) found that negative but not positive contact with heterosexual people was associated with sexual-minority students' engagement in collective action (via group identification and perceived discrimination). Among heterosexual students, positive and negative contacts were associated with, respectively, more and less LGB (lesbian, gay, bisexual) activism. Study 2 ( N = 1,469) found that only negative contact (via perceived discrimination) predicted LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender) students' collective action intentions longitudinally while only positive contact predicted heterosexual/cisgender students' LGBT activism. Implications for the relationship between intergroup contact, collective action, and social change are discussed.

Global reorganisation of cis-regulatory units upon lineage commitment of human embryonic stem cells

PubMed Central

Freire-Pritchett, Paula; Schoenfelder, Stefan; Várnai, Csilla; Wingett, Steven W; Cairns, Jonathan; Collier, Amanda J; García-Vílchez, Raquel; Furlan-Magaril, Mayra; Osborne, Cameron S; Fraser, Peter; Rugg-Gunn, Peter J; Spivakov, Mikhail

2017-01-01

Long-range cis-regulatory elements such as enhancers coordinate cell-specific transcriptional programmes by engaging in DNA looping interactions with target promoters. Deciphering the interplay between the promoter connectivity and activity of cis-regulatory elements during lineage commitment is crucial for understanding developmental transcriptional control. Here, we use Promoter Capture Hi-C to generate a high-resolution atlas of chromosomal interactions involving ~22,000 gene promoters in human pluripotent and lineage-committed cells, identifying putative target genes for known and predicted enhancer elements. We reveal extensive dynamics of cis-regulatory contacts upon lineage commitment, including the acquisition and loss of promoter interactions. This spatial rewiring occurs preferentially with predicted changes in the activity of cis-regulatory elements and is associated with changes in target gene expression. Our results provide a global and integrated view of promoter interactome dynamics during lineage commitment of human pluripotent cells. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.21926.001 PMID:28332981

The role of symptoms and self-efficacy in predicting physical activity change among older adults with arthritis.

PubMed

Sperber, Nina; Hall, Katherine S; Allen, Kelli; DeVellis, Brenda M; Lewis, Megan; Callahan, Leigh F

2014-03-01

Physical and psychological symptoms limit physical activity for people with arthritis. This study examined if self-efficacy mediated a relationship between symptom and physical activity (PA) frequency change. This was a secondary analysis of older adults with arthritis and joint pain in a trial of a lifestyle PA program (n = 339). Measures were depressive symptoms, pain, fatigue, arthritis self-efficacy, PA self-efficacy, and PA frequency. A panel model was used to analyze relationships at baseline and changes at 20 weeks. The mean age was 68.8 years. At baseline, depression and fatigue were associated with arthritis self-efficacy (β = -.34 and -.24) and, in turn, PA self-efficacy (β = .63); PA self-efficacy was associated with PA (β = .15). Pain and depression changes were associated with arthritis self-efficacy change (β = -.20 and -.21) and, in turn, PA self-efficacy (β = .32) change; PA self-efficacy change was associated with PA change (β = .36). Change in symptom severity affected change in PA frequency. These relationships appeared to operate through self-efficacy. Over time, pain appeared to have a stronger relationship than fatigue with self-efficacy and PA. These findings support strategies to help people with arthritis strengthen their confidence for symptom coping and PA participation.

Responsiveness of a simple tool for assessing change in behavioral intention after continuing professional development activities.

PubMed

Légaré, France; Freitas, Adriana; Turcotte, Stéphane; Borduas, Francine; Jacques, André; Luconi, Francesca; Godin, Gaston; Boucher, Andrée; Sargeant, Joan; Labrecque, Michel

2017-01-01

Continuing professional development (CPD) activities are one way that new knowledge can be translated into changes in practice. However, few tools are available for evaluating the extent to which these activities change health professionals' behavior. We developed a questionnaire called CPD-Reaction for assessing the impact of CPD activities on health professionals' clinical behavioral intentions. We evaluated its responsiveness to change in behavioral intention and verified its acceptability among stakeholders. We enrolled 376 health professionals who completed CPD-Reaction before and immediately after attending a CPD activity. We contacted them three months later and asked them to self-report on any behavior change. We compared the mean rankings on each CPD-Reaction construct before and immediately after CPD activities. To estimate its predictive validity, we compared the median behavioral intention score (post-activity) of health professionals reporting a behavior change three months later with the median behavioral intention score of physicians who reported no change. We explored stakeholders' views on CPD-Reaction in semi-structured interviews. Participants were mostly family physicians (62.2%), with an average of 19 years of clinical practice. Post-activity, we observed an increase in intention-related scores for all constructs (P < 0.001) with the most appreciable for the construct beliefs about capabilities. A total of 313 participants agreed to be contacted at follow up, and of these only 69 (22%) reported back. Of these, 43 (62%) self-reported a behavior change. We observed no statistically significant difference in intention between health professionals who later reported a behavior change and those who reported no change (P = 0.30). Overall, CPD stakeholders found the CPD-Reaction questionnaire of interest and suggested potential solutions to perceived barriers to its implementation. The CPD-Reaction questionnaire seems responsive to change in behavioral intention. Although CPD stakeholders found it interesting, future implementation will require addressing barriers they identified.

Do We Need Better Climate Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate? (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dessai, S.; Hulme, M.; Lempert, R.; Pielke, R., Jr.

2009-12-01

Based on a series of international scientific assessments, climate change has been presented to society as a major problem that needs urgently to be tackled. The science that underpins these assessments has been pre-dominantly from the realm of the natural sciences and central to this framing have been ‘projections’ of future climate change (and its impacts on environment and society) under various greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and using a variety of climate model predictions with embedded assumptions. Central to much of the discussion surrounding adaptation to climate change is the claim - explicit or implicit - that decision makers need accurate and increasingly precise assessments of future impacts of climate change in order to adapt successfully. If true, this claim places a high premium on accurate and precise climate predictions at a range of geographical and temporal scales; such predictions therefore become indispensable, and indeed a prerequisite for, effective adaptation decision-making. But is effective adaptation tied to the ability of the scientific enterprise to predict future climate with accuracy and precision? If so, this may impose a serious and intractable limit on adaptation. This paper proceeds in three sections. It first gathers evidence of claims that climate prediction is necessary for adaptation decision-making. This evidence is drawn from peer-reviewed literature and from published science funding strategies and government policy in a number of different countries. The second part discusses the challenges of climate prediction and why science will consistently be unable to provide accurate and precise predictions of future climate relevant for adaptation (usually at the local/regional level). Section three discusses whether these limits to future foresight represent a limit to adaptation, arguing that effective adaptation need not be limited by a general inability to predict future climate. Given the deep uncertainties involved in climate prediction (and even more so in the prediction of climate impacts) and given that climate is usually only one factor in decisions aimed at climate adaptation, we conclude that the ‘predict and provide’ approach to science in support of climate change adaptation is largely flawed. We consider other important areas of public policy fraught with uncertainty - e.g. earthquake risk, national security, public health - where such a ‘predict and provide’ approach is not attempted. Instead of relying on an approach which has climate prediction (and consequent risk assessment) at its heart - which because of the associated epistemological limits to prediction will consequently act as an apparent limit to adaptation - we need to view adaptation differently, in a manner that opens up options for decision making under uncertainty. We suggest an approach which examines the robustness of adaptation strategies/policies/activities to the myriad of uncertainties that face us in the future, only one of which is the state of climate.

Predicting the practice effects on the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) function of fMRI in a symbolic manipulation task

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Yulin; Sohn, Myeong-Ho; Anderson, John R.; Stenger, V. Andrew; Fissell, Kate; Goode, Adam; Carter, Cameron S.

2003-04-01

Based on adaptive control of thought-rational (ACT-R), a cognitive architecture for cognitive modeling, researchers have developed an information-processing model to predict the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) response of functional MRI in symbol manipulation tasks. As an extension of this research, the current event-related functional MRI study investigates the effect of relatively extensive practice on the activation patterns of related brain regions. The task involved performing transformations on equations in an artificial algebra system. This paper shows that the base-level activation learning in the ACT-R theory can predict the change of the BOLD response in practice in a left prefrontal region reflecting retrieval of information. In contrast, practice has relatively little effect on the form of BOLD response in the parietal region reflecting imagined transformations to the equation or the motor region reflecting manual programming.

Revised forecast: Another stormy summer ahead

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlowicz, Michael

After predicting in November 1995 that the 1996 hurricane season would be less active than the typical year (Eos, December 12, 1995), William Gray and his colleagues from Colorado State University have revised their forecast. Plugging updated atmospheric data into their statistical model, the researchers are now predicting seven hurricanes—two of them intense (category 3, 4, or 5)—and 11 named storms for the summer and fall of 1996. Net tropical cyclone activity for the hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to December 1, should be 105% of the 25-year average, according to Gray.In November, Gray and Chris Landsea of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division predicted eight tropical storms and five hurricanes (two intense), less than the historical averages of 9.3 named storms and 5.7 hurricanes per season. The change in expectations is the result of new accounting for trends in temperature and barometric pressure in Africa and around the Atlantic Basin.

Spatial Attention, Motor Intention, and Bayesian Cue Predictability in the Human Brain.

PubMed

Kuhns, Anna B; Dombert, Pascasie L; Mengotti, Paola; Fink, Gereon R; Vossel, Simone

2017-05-24

Predictions about upcoming events influence how we perceive and respond to our environment. There is increasing evidence that predictions may be generated based upon previous observations following Bayesian principles, but little is known about the underlying cortical mechanisms and their specificity for different cognitive subsystems. The present study aimed at identifying common and distinct neural signatures of predictive processing in the spatial attentional and motor intentional system. Twenty-three female and male healthy human volunteers performed two probabilistic cueing tasks with either spatial or motor cues while lying in the fMRI scanner. In these tasks, the percentage of cue validity changed unpredictably over time. Trialwise estimates of cue predictability were derived from a Bayesian observer model of behavioral responses. These estimates were included as parametric regressors for analyzing the BOLD time series. Parametric effects of cue predictability in valid and invalid trials were considered to reflect belief updating by precision-weighted prediction errors. The brain areas exhibiting predictability-dependent effects dissociated between the spatial attention and motor intention task, with the right temporoparietal cortex being involved during spatial attention and the left angular gyrus and anterior cingulate cortex during motor intention. Connectivity analyses revealed that all three areas showed predictability-dependent coupling with the right hippocampus. These results suggest that precision-weighted prediction errors of stimulus locations and motor responses are encoded in distinct brain regions, but that crosstalk with the hippocampus may be necessary to integrate new trialwise outcomes in both cognitive systems. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The brain is able to infer the environments' statistical structure and responds strongly to expectancy violations. In the spatial attentional domain, it has been shown that parts of the attentional networks are sensitive to the predictability of stimuli. It remains unknown, however, whether these effects are ubiquitous or if they are specific for different cognitive systems. The present study compared the influence of model-derived cue predictability on brain activity in the spatial attentional and motor intentional system. We identified areas with distinct predictability-dependent activation for spatial attention and motor intention, but also common connectivity changes of these regions with the hippocampus. These findings provide novel insights into the generality and specificity of predictive processing signatures in the human brain. Copyright © 2017 the authors 0270-6474/17/375334-11$15.00/0.

Metabolic and hemodynamic events following changes in neuronal activity: current hypotheses, theoretical predictions and in vivo NMR experimental findings

PubMed Central

Mangia, Silvia; Giove, Federico; Tkáč, Ivan; Logothetis, Nikos K.; Henry, Pierre-Gilles; Olman, Cheryl A.; Maraviglia, Bruno; Di Salle, Francesco; Uğurbil, Kâmil

2009-01-01

Unraveling the energy metabolism and the hemodynamic outcomes of excitatory and inhibitory neuronal activity is critical not only for our basic understanding of overall brain function, but also for the understanding of many brain disorders. Methodologies of magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) are powerful tools for the non-invasive investigation of brain metabolism and physiology. However, the temporal and spatial resolution of in vivo MRS and MRI is not suitable to provide direct evidence for hypotheses that involve metabolic compartmentalization between different cell types, or to untangle the complex neuronal micro-circuitry which results in changes of electrical activity. This review aims at describing how the current models of brain metabolism, mainly built on the basis of in vitro evidence, relate to experimental findings recently obtained in vivo by 1H MRS, 13C MRS and MRI. The hypotheses related to the role of different metabolic substrates, the metabolic neuron-glia interactions, along with the available theoretical predictions of the energy budget of neurotransmission, will be discussed. In addition, the cellular and network mechanisms that characterize different types of increased and suppressed neuronal activity will be considered within the sensitivity-constraints of MRS and MRI. PMID:19002199

Dispersal patterns, active behaviour, and flow environment during early life history of coastal cold water fishes.

PubMed

Stanley, Ryan; Snelgrove, Paul V R; Deyoung, Brad; Gregory, Robert S

2012-01-01

During the pelagic larval phase, fish dispersal may be influenced passively by surface currents or actively determined by swimming behaviour. In situ observations of larval swimming are few given the constraints of field sampling. Active behaviour is therefore often inferred from spatial patterns in the field, laboratory studies, or hydrodynamic theory, but rarely are these approaches considered in concert. Ichthyoplankton survey data collected during 2004 and 2006 from coastal Newfoundland show that changes in spatial heterogeneity for multiple species do not conform to predictions based on passive transport. We evaluated the interaction of individual larvae with their environment by calculating Reynolds number as a function of ontogeny. Typically, larvae hatch into a viscous environment in which swimming is inefficient, and later grow into more efficient intermediate and inertial swimming environments. Swimming is therefore closely related to length, not only because of swimming capacity but also in how larvae experience viscosity. Six of eight species sampled demonstrated consistent changes in spatial patchiness and concomitant increases in spatial heterogeneity as they transitioned into more favourable hydrodynamic swimming environments, suggesting an active behavioural element to dispersal. We propose the tandem assessment of spatial heterogeneity and hydrodynamic environment as a potential approach to understand and predict the onset of ecologically significant swimming behaviour of larval fishes in the field.

The theory of an active magnetic regenerative refrigerator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Barclay, J. A.

1983-01-01

The adiabatic temperature change with field which is limited to about 2 K/Tesla for ferromagnets near their Curie temperatures by the change of magnetization with temperature and the lattice heat capacity is discussed. Practical magnetic refrigerators operate on a regenerative cycle such as the Brayton cycle. This cycle can be executed through the use of an active magnetic regenerator, i.e., a regenerator composed of magnetic material that is cycled in an out of a magnetic field with appropriate fluid flows. The theory of these devices is predicted by solving the partial differential equations that describe fluid and the magnetic solid. The active magnetic regenerator is described along with the method of calculation. Temperature profiles for a normal regenerator and a magnetic regenerative refrigerator are shown.

Analysis of the ability of large-scale reanalysis data to define Siberian fire danger in preparation for future fire prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soja, Amber; Westberg, David; Stackhouse, Paul, Jr.; McRae, Douglas; Jin, Ji-Zhong; Sukhinin, Anatoly

2010-05-01

Fire is the dominant disturbance that precipitates ecosystem change in boreal regions, and fire is largely under the control of weather and climate. Fire frequency, fire severity, area burned and fire season length are predicted to increase in boreal regions under current climate change scenarios. Therefore, changes in fire regimes have the potential to compel ecological change, moving ecosystems more quickly towards equilibrium with a new climate. The ultimate goal of this research is to assess the viability of large-scale (1°) data to be used to define fire weather danger and fire regimes, so that large-scale data can be confidently used to predict future fire regimes using large-scale fire weather data, like that available from current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate change scenarios. In this talk, we intent to: (1) evaluate Fire Weather Indices (FWI) derived using reanalysis and interpolated station data; (2) discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using these distinct data sources; and (3) highlight established relationships between large-scale fire weather data, area burned, active fires and ecosystems burned. Specifically, the Canadian Forestry Service (CFS) Fire Weather Index (FWI) will be derived using: (1) NASA Goddard Earth Observing System version 4 (GEOS-4) large-scale reanalysis and NASA Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) data; and National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) surface station-interpolated data. Requirements of the FWI are local noon surface-level air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and daily (noon-noon) rainfall. GEOS-4 reanalysis and NCDC station-interpolated fire weather indices are generally consistent spatially, temporally and quantitatively. Additionally, increased fire activity coincides with increased FWI ratings in both data products. Relationships have been established between large-scale FWI to area burned, fire frequency, ecosystem types, and these can be use to estimate historic and future fire regimes.

Local patterns of biological N fixation and N-to-P limitations along steep atmospheric deposition gradients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scott, Dalton; Bradley, Robert; Bellenger, Jean-Philippe; Kathrin, Rousk; Michael, Gundale; DeLuca, Tom

2017-04-01

A major challenge facing biogeochemists is being able to predict how environmental changes alter the functioning of forest ecosystems. In particular, atmospheric N deposition (AND) from fossil fuel combustion is fertilizing forest ecosystems worldwide at an unprecedented rate. While much attention has been paid to regional and continental-scale AND patterns, very little is known about local scale patterns resulting from human activities. For example, busy roads have recently been identified as hotspots for AND, with steep gradients occurring within 100-400 m margins along busy roadsides. It was previously found that such gradients along boreal forest roadsides correlated negatively with changes in biological N fixation (BNF) by moss dwelling cyanobacteria. Here, we present data from a recent experiment designed to answer specific questions regarding this phenomenon, namely: (1) Can AND lead to shifts from N to P limitation of BNF in mosses? (2) Can AND shift the stoichiometry of P and Mo (i.e. nitrogenase enzyme cofactor) limiting BNF in mosses? (3) Do roadside BNF patterns occur because of a down regulation in nitrogenase enzyme activity, or as the result of changes in moss biomass? (4) Do roadside AND and BNF patterns correlate predictably with the relative N-to-P limitation of trees? Preliminary results confirm that roadside BNF gradients are site specific, with moisture and light availability as major environmental controls. P-limitations of BNF were observed along roadside gradients on some sites, as were changes in spruce needle N and P concentrations. Decreases in BNF due to high AND may partly be due to changes in moss biomass. Collectively, our project provides important insights that improve our knowledge of site-specific stoichiometric gradients due to AND, which can be used to improve the precision of biogeochemical models required to predict ecosystem responses to global changes.

Active school travel: an evaluation of the Canadian school travel planning intervention.

PubMed

Mammen, George; Stone, Michelle R; Faulkner, Guy; Ramanathan, Subha; Buliung, Ron; O'Brien, Catherine; Kennedy, Jacky

2014-03-01

Active school travel (AST) may provide a significant source of physical activity for children although rates of AST are declining in many countries. The objective of this study was to evaluate the Canadian School Travel Planning (STP) intervention by examining changes in school travel mode and predictors of mode change. Schools (n=106) across Canada participated between January 2010 and March 2012. STP committees implemented school-specific strategies to increase active school transport (AST) which included educational strategies, activities and events, capital improvement projects and enforcement initiatives. Travel mode at each school was assessed by a hands-up survey and school travel plans were reviewed for content. Complete data were available for 53 schools. There was no increase in AST at follow-up after one year. There was variation in mode change between schools. Only season of data collection predicted a decrease in AST in the morning (B=-5.36, p<.05). This Canadian STP evaluation showed no change in AST after one year. There was evidence of some localized success at nearly half of the participating schools. More robust monitoring and evaluation are needed to examine STP effectiveness. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Rapid learning in visual cortical networks.

PubMed

Wang, Ye; Dragoi, Valentin

2015-08-26

Although changes in brain activity during learning have been extensively examined at the single neuron level, the coding strategies employed by cell populations remain mysterious. We examined cell populations in macaque area V4 during a rapid form of perceptual learning that emerges within tens of minutes. Multiple single units and LFP responses were recorded as monkeys improved their performance in an image discrimination task. We show that the increase in behavioral performance during learning is predicted by a tight coordination of spike timing with local population activity. More spike-LFP theta synchronization is correlated with higher learning performance, while high-frequency synchronization is unrelated with changes in performance, but these changes were absent once learning had stabilized and stimuli became familiar, or in the absence of learning. These findings reveal a novel mechanism of plasticity in visual cortex by which elevated low-frequency synchronization between individual neurons and local population activity accompanies the improvement in performance during learning.

Planning for Retirement: Longitudinal Effect on Retirement Resources and Post-retirement Well-being

PubMed Central

Yeung, Dannii Y.; Zhou, Xiaoyu

2017-01-01

Retirement is a major life event, and a positive adjustment to retirement is essential for maintaining physical and psychological well-being in later life. Previous research demonstrates that pre-retirement planning predicts post-retirement well-being. This study further explores the underlying mechanism between planning activities and post-retirement well-being. By applying the resource-based dynamic model (Wang et al., 2011), the present longitudinal study examines whether pre-retirement planning activities can increase the total resources of retirees, including tangible, mental and social resources, and consequently contribute to better psychological and physical well-being 1 year after actual retirement. A total of 118 Hong Kong Chinese retirees completed three assessments: Time 1 assessment was conducted 6 months before retirement, and Times 2 and 3 assessments were carried out 6 and 12 months, respectively, after retirement. Latent growth models were employed to examine changes in retirement resources and post-retirement well-being over time. Consistent with the proposition of the resource-based dynamic model, positive changes in well-being were observed in the retirees with increases in retirement resources between pre- and post-retirement phases. The results of the latent growth mediation models also support our prediction: retirees with more preparatory activities before retirement acquire greater resources at the initial stage, which contribute to positive changes in post-retirement well-being over time. PMID:28798716

Planning for Retirement: Longitudinal Effect on Retirement Resources and Post-retirement Well-being.

PubMed

Yeung, Dannii Y; Zhou, Xiaoyu

2017-01-01

Retirement is a major life event, and a positive adjustment to retirement is essential for maintaining physical and psychological well-being in later life. Previous research demonstrates that pre-retirement planning predicts post-retirement well-being. This study further explores the underlying mechanism between planning activities and post-retirement well-being. By applying the resource-based dynamic model (Wang et al., 2011), the present longitudinal study examines whether pre-retirement planning activities can increase the total resources of retirees, including tangible, mental and social resources, and consequently contribute to better psychological and physical well-being 1 year after actual retirement. A total of 118 Hong Kong Chinese retirees completed three assessments: Time 1 assessment was conducted 6 months before retirement, and Times 2 and 3 assessments were carried out 6 and 12 months, respectively, after retirement. Latent growth models were employed to examine changes in retirement resources and post-retirement well-being over time. Consistent with the proposition of the resource-based dynamic model, positive changes in well-being were observed in the retirees with increases in retirement resources between pre- and post-retirement phases. The results of the latent growth mediation models also support our prediction: retirees with more preparatory activities before retirement acquire greater resources at the initial stage, which contribute to positive changes in post-retirement well-being over time.

Norepinephrine and thyroxine are predictors of fat mass gain in humans with cold-induced brown adipose tissue activation.

PubMed

Begaye, Brittany; Piaggi, Paolo; Thearle, Marie S; Haskie, Kaitlyn; Walter, Mary; Schlögl, Mathias; Bonfiglio, Susan; Krakoff, Jonathan; Vinales, Karyne L

2018-05-16

In healthy adults with detectable cold-induced brown fat activation (CIBA), the relationships between sympathetic nervous system (SNS) or thyroid activity during energy balance (EBL) with CIBA and body composition change are undetermined. To investigate the relationships between CIBA and thermoneutral catecholamines and thyroid hormones measured during EBL and to determine if CIBA, catecholamines, or thyroid hormones predict body composition changes. Twelve healthy volunteers (7M/5F) with positive CIBA (>2 standardized uptake value (g/mL)) had 24-h energy expenditure (24hEE) assessed during EBL via whole-room indirect calorimetry while residing on a clinical research unit. Positron-emission tomography/computed tomography scans were performed after exposure to 16°C for 2h to quantify CIBA. CIBA, 24hEE during EBL and thermoneutrality with concomitant measurement of urinary catecholamines and plasma free T3 (fT3) and free t4 (fT4). Body composition at baseline and six months by DXA. Lower urinary norepinephrine and fT4 were associated with higher CIBA (r = ‒0.65, p = 0.03 and r = ‒0.75, p<0.01, respectively), but CIBA was not associated with 24hEE at thermoneutrality (p=0.77). Lower CIBA (β = ̶̶ 3.5 kg/SUV, p<0.01) predicted fat mass gain; whereas, higher urinary norepinephrine and fT4 predicted future fat mass gain at 6 months (β = 3.0 kg per two-fold difference in norepinephrine, p=0.03; β = 1.2 kg per 0.1 ng/dL difference in fT4, p=0.03, respectively). Lower SNS and free thyroid measurements at baseline indicate a greater capacity for CIBA, which may be predictive against fat mass gain.

Temperature Sensitivity as a Microbial Trait Using Parameters from Macromolecular Rate Theory

PubMed Central

Alster, Charlotte J.; Baas, Peter; Wallenstein, Matthew D.; Johnson, Nels G.; von Fischer, Joseph C.

2016-01-01

The activity of soil microbial extracellular enzymes is strongly controlled by temperature, yet the degree to which temperature sensitivity varies by microbe and enzyme type is unclear. Such information would allow soil microbial enzymes to be incorporated in a traits-based framework to improve prediction of ecosystem response to global change. If temperature sensitivity varies for specific soil enzymes, then determining the underlying causes of variation in temperature sensitivity of these enzymes will provide fundamental insights for predicting nutrient dynamics belowground. In this study, we characterized how both microbial taxonomic variation as well as substrate type affects temperature sensitivity. We measured β-glucosidase, leucine aminopeptidase, and phosphatase activities at six temperatures: 4, 11, 25, 35, 45, and 60°C, for seven different soil microbial isolates. To calculate temperature sensitivity, we employed two models, Arrhenius, which predicts an exponential increase in reaction rate with temperature, and Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT), which predicts rate to peak and then decline as temperature increases. We found MMRT provided a more accurate fit and allowed for more nuanced interpretation of temperature sensitivity in all of the enzyme × isolate combinations tested. Our results revealed that both the enzyme type and soil isolate type explain variation in parameters associated with temperature sensitivity. Because we found temperature sensitivity to be an inherent and variable property of an enzyme, we argue that it can be incorporated as a microbial functional trait, but only when using the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity. We show that the Arrhenius metrics of temperature sensitivity are overly sensitive to test conditions, with activation energy changing depending on the temperature range it was calculated within. Thus, we propose the use of the MMRT definition of temperature sensitivity for accurate interpretation of temperature sensitivity of soil microbial enzymes. PMID:27909429

Transformation of Cortex-wide Emergent Properties during Motor Learning.

PubMed

Makino, Hiroshi; Ren, Chi; Liu, Haixin; Kim, An Na; Kondapaneni, Neehar; Liu, Xin; Kuzum, Duygu; Komiyama, Takaki

2017-05-17

Learning involves a transformation of brain-wide operation dynamics. However, our understanding of learning-related changes in macroscopic dynamics is limited. Here, we monitored cortex-wide activity of the mouse brain using wide-field calcium imaging while the mouse learned a motor task over weeks. Over learning, the sequential activity across cortical modules became temporally more compressed, and its trial-by-trial variability decreased. Moreover, a new flow of activity emerged during learning, originating from premotor cortex (M2), and M2 became predictive of the activity of many other modules. Inactivation experiments showed that M2 is critical for the post-learning dynamics in the cortex-wide activity. Furthermore, two-photon calcium imaging revealed that M2 ensemble activity also showed earlier activity onset and reduced variability with learning, which was accompanied by changes in the activity-movement relationship. These results reveal newly emergent properties of macroscopic cortical dynamics during motor learning and highlight the importance of M2 in controlling learned movements. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Weight Loss and the Prevention of Weight Regain: Evaluation of a Treatment Model of Exercise Self-Regulation Generalizing to Controlled Eating.

PubMed

Annesi, James J; Johnson, Ping H; Tennant, Gisèle A; Porter, Kandice J; Mcewen, Kristin L

2016-01-01

For decades, behavioral weight-loss treatments have been unsuccessful beyond the short term. Development and testing of innovative, theoretically based methods that depart from current failed practices is a priority for behavioral medicine. To evaluate a new, theory-based protocol in which exercise support methods are employed to facilitate improvements in psychosocial predictors of controlled eating and sustained weight loss. Women with obesity were randomized into either a comparison treatment that incorporated a print manual plus telephone follow-ups (n = 55) or an experimental treatment of The Coach Approach exercise-support protocol followed after 2 months by group nutrition sessions focused on generalizing self-regulatory skills from an exercise support to a controlled eating context (n = 55). Repeated-measures analysis of variance contrasted group changes in weight, physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake, mood, and exercise- and eating-related self-regulation and self-efficacy over 24 months. Regression analyses determined salient interrelations of change scores over both the weight-loss phase (baseline-month 6) and weight-loss maintenance phase (month 6-month 24). Improvements in all psychological measures, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable intake were significantly greater in the experimental group where a mean weight loss of 5.7 kg (6.1% of initial body weight) occurred at month 6, and was largely maintained at a loss of 5.1 kg (5.4%) through the full 24 months of the study. After establishing temporal intervals for changes in self-regulation, self-efficacy, and mood that best predicted improvements in physical activity and eating, a consolidated multiple mediation model suggested that change in self-regulation best predicted weight loss, whereas change in self-efficacy best predicted maintenance of lost weight. Because for most participants loss of weight remained greater than that required for health benefits, and costs for treatment administration were comparatively low, the experimental protocol was considered successful. After sufficient replication, physician referral and applications within health promotion and wellness settings should be considered.

Weight Loss and the Prevention of Weight Regain: Evaluation of a Treatment Model of Exercise Self-Regulation Generalizing to Controlled Eating

PubMed Central

Annesi, James J; Johnson, Ping H; Tennant, Gisèle A; Porter, Kandice J; McEwen, Kristin L

2016-01-01

Context: For decades, behavioral weight-loss treatments have been unsuccessful beyond the short term. Development and testing of innovative, theoretically based methods that depart from current failed practices is a priority for behavioral medicine. Objective: To evaluate a new, theory-based protocol in which exercise support methods are employed to facilitate improvements in psychosocial predictors of controlled eating and sustained weight loss. Methods: Women with obesity were randomized into either a comparison treatment that incorporated a print manual plus telephone follow-ups (n = 55) or an experimental treatment of The Coach Approach exercise-support protocol followed after 2 months by group nutrition sessions focused on generalizing self-regulatory skills from an exercise support to a controlled eating context (n = 55). Repeated-measures analysis of variance contrasted group changes in weight, physical activity, fruit and vegetable intake, mood, and exercise- and eating-related self-regulation and self-efficacy over 24 months. Regression analyses determined salient interrelations of change scores over both the weight-loss phase (baseline-month 6) and weight-loss maintenance phase (month 6-month 24). Results: Improvements in all psychological measures, physical activity, and fruit and vegetable intake were significantly greater in the experimental group where a mean weight loss of 5.7 kg (6.1% of initial body weight) occurred at month 6, and was largely maintained at a loss of 5.1 kg (5.4%) through the full 24 months of the study. After establishing temporal intervals for changes in self-regulation, self-efficacy, and mood that best predicted improvements in physical activity and eating, a consolidated multiple mediation model suggested that change in self-regulation best predicted weight loss, whereas change in self-efficacy best predicted maintenance of lost weight. Conclusions: Because for most participants loss of weight remained greater than that required for health benefits, and costs for treatment administration were comparatively low, the experimental protocol was considered successful. After sufficient replication, physician referral and applications within health promotion and wellness settings should be considered. PMID:26901268

Smolting in coastal cutthroat trout Onchorhynchus clarkii clarkii

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zydlewski, Joseph D.; Zydlewski, G.; Kennedy, B.; Gale, W.

2014-01-01

Gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity, condition factor and seawater (SW) challenges were used to assess the development of smolt characteristics in a cohort of hatchery coastal cutthroat trout Oncorhynchus clarkii clarkii from the Cowlitz River in Washington State, U.S.A. Gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity increased slightly in the spring, coinciding with an increase in hypo-osmoregulatory ability. These changes were of lesser magnitude than are observed in other salmonine species. Even at the peak of tolerance, these fish exhibited notable osmotic perturbations in full strength SW. Condition factor in these hatchery fish declined steadily through the spring. Wild captured migrants from four tributaries of the Columbia River had moderately elevated gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity, consistent with smolt development and with greater enzyme activity than autumn captured juveniles from one of the tributaries, Abernathy Creek. Migrant fish also had reduced condition factor. General linear models of 7 years of data from Abernathy Creek suggest that yearly variation, advancing photoperiod (as ordinal date) and fish size (fork length) were significant factors for predicting gill Na+, K+-ATPase activity in these wild fish. Both yearly variation and temperature were significant factors for predicting condition factor. These results suggest that coastal O. c. clarkii exhibit weakly developed characteristics of smolting. These changes are influenced by environmental conditions with great individual variation. The data suggest great physiological plasticity consistent with the variable life-history tactics observed in this species.

Prediction of maximal surface electromyographically based voluntary contractions of erector spinae muscles from sonographic measurements during isometric contractions.

PubMed

Cuesta-Vargas, Antonio I; González-Sánchez, Manuel

2014-03-01

Currently, there are no studies combining electromyography (EMG) and sonography to estimate the absolute and relative strength values of erector spinae (ES) muscles in healthy individuals. The purpose of this study was to establish whether the maximum voluntary contraction (MVC) of the ES during isometric contractions could be predicted from the changes in surface EMG as well as in fiber pennation and thickness as measured by sonography. Thirty healthy adults performed 3 isometric extensions at 45° from the vertical to calculate the MVC force. Contractions at 33% and 100% of the MVC force were then used during sonographic and EMG recordings. These measurements were used to observe the architecture and function of the muscles during contraction. Statistical analysis was performed using bivariate regression and regression equations. The slope for each regression equation was statistically significant (P < .001) with R(2) values of 0.837 and 0.986 for the right and left ES, respectively. The standard error estimate between the sonographic measurements and the regression-estimated pennation angles for the right and left ES were 0.10 and 0.02, respectively. Erector spinae muscle activation can be predicted from the changes in fiber pennation during isometric contractions at 33% and 100% of the MVC force. These findings could be essential for developing a regression equation that could estimate the level of muscle activation from changes in the muscle architecture.

Post-secondary maternal education buffers against neural risk for psychological vulnerability to future life stress.

PubMed

Swartz, Johnna R; Knodt, Annchen R; Radtke, Spenser R; Hariri, Ahmad R

2018-01-31

We have previously reported that threat-related amygdala activity measured during a baseline fMRI scan predicts the experience of depression and anxiety associated with stressful life events years later. Here, we examine whether two broad measures of childhood environmental enrichment, namely parental educational achievement and subjective parental socioeconomic status, buffer against the effects of amygdala activity on future vulnerability to stress. Analyses of data available from 579 young adults revealed that maternal, but not paternal, educational achievement moderates the association between amygdala activity, recent life stress, and changes in mood and anxiety symptoms, even when controlling for participants' current subjective socioeconomic status. Specifically, only participants reporting lower maternal educational achievement exhibited our previously observed interaction between amygdala activity and future life stress predicting increases in depression and anxiety. These results suggest that higher maternal educational achievement may help buffer stress sensitivity associated with heightened threat-related amygdala activity. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An EEG Finger-Print of fMRI deep regional activation.

PubMed

Meir-Hasson, Yehudit; Kinreich, Sivan; Podlipsky, Ilana; Hendler, Talma; Intrator, Nathan

2014-11-15

This work introduces a general framework for producing an EEG Finger-Print (EFP) which can be used to predict specific brain activity as measured by fMRI at a given deep region. This new approach allows for improved EEG spatial resolution based on simultaneous fMRI activity measurements. Advanced signal processing and machine learning methods were applied on EEG data acquired simultaneously with fMRI during relaxation training guided by on-line continuous feedback on changing alpha/theta EEG measure. We focused on demonstrating improved EEG prediction of activation in sub-cortical regions such as the amygdala. Our analysis shows that a ridge regression model that is based on time/frequency representation of EEG data from a single electrode, can predict the amygdala related activity significantly better than a traditional theta/alpha activity sampled from the best electrode and about 1/3 of the times, significantly better than a linear combination of frequencies with a pre-defined delay. The far-reaching goal of our approach is to be able to reduce the need for fMRI scanning for probing specific sub-cortical regions such as the amygdala as the basis for brain-training procedures. On the other hand, activity in those regions can be characterized with higher temporal resolution than is obtained by fMRI alone thus revealing additional information about their processing mode. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Orbitofrontal Cortex Signals Expected Outcomes with Predictive Codes When Stable Contingencies Promote the Integration of Reward History

PubMed Central

Shapiro, Matthew L.

2017-01-01

Memory can inform goal-directed behavior by linking current opportunities to past outcomes. The orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) may guide value-based responses by integrating the history of stimulus–reward associations into expected outcomes, representations of predicted hedonic value and quality. Alternatively, the OFC may rapidly compute flexible “online” reward predictions by associating stimuli with the latest outcome. OFC neurons develop predictive codes when rats learn to associate arbitrary stimuli with outcomes, but the extent to which predictive coding depends on most recent events and the integrated history of rewards is unclear. To investigate how reward history modulates OFC activity, we recorded OFC ensembles as rats performed spatial discriminations that differed only in the number of rewarded trials between goal reversals. The firing rate of single OFC neurons distinguished identical behaviors guided by different goals. When >20 rewarded trials separated goal switches, OFC ensembles developed stable and anticorrelated population vectors that predicted overall choice accuracy and the goal selected in single trials. When <10 rewarded trials separated goal switches, OFC population vectors decorrelated rapidly after each switch, but did not develop anticorrelated firing patterns or predict choice accuracy. The results show that, whereas OFC signals respond rapidly to contingency changes, they predict choices only when reward history is relatively stable, suggesting that consecutive rewarded episodes are needed for OFC computations that integrate reward history into expected outcomes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Adapting to changing contingencies and making decisions engages the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC). Previous work shows that OFC function can either improve or impair learning depending on reward stability, suggesting that OFC guides behavior optimally when contingencies apply consistently. The mechanisms that link reward history to OFC computations remain obscure. Here, we examined OFC unit activity as rodents performed tasks controlled by contingencies that varied reward history. When contingencies were stable, OFC neurons signaled past, present, and pending events; when contingencies were unstable, past and present coding persisted, but predictive coding diminished. The results suggest that OFC mechanisms require stable contingencies across consecutive episodes to integrate reward history, represent predicted outcomes, and inform goal-directed choices. PMID:28115481

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schatten, Kenneth; Pesnell, W. Dean

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun's polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock-Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130 plus or minus 30 (2 sigma), in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (approx. 7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun's open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (SOlar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun's hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun's cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modern observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Solar Cycle #24 and the Solar Dynamo

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pesnell, W. Dean; Schatten, Kenneth

2007-01-01

We focus on two solar aspects related to flight dynamics. These are the solar dynamo and long-term solar activity predictions. The nature of the solar dynamo is central to solar activity predictions, and these predictions are important for orbital planning of satellites in low earth orbit (LEO). The reason is that the solar ultraviolet (UV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV) spectral irradiances inflate the upper atmospheric layers of the Earth, forming the thermosphere and exosphere through which these satellites orbit. Concerning the dynamo, we discuss some recent novel approaches towards its understanding. For solar predictions we concentrate on a solar precursor method, in which the Sun s polar field plays a major role in forecasting the next cycle s activity based upon the Babcock- Leighton dynamo. With a current low value for the Sun s polar field, this method predicts that solar cycle #24 will be one of the lowest in recent times, with smoothed F10.7 radio flux values peaking near 130+ 30 (2 4, in the 2013 timeframe. One may have to consider solar activity as far back as the early 20th century to find a cycle of comparable magnitude. Concomitant effects of low solar activity upon satellites in LEO will need to be considered, such as enhancements in orbital debris. Support for our prediction of a low solar cycle #24 is borne out by the lack of new cycle sunspots at least through the first half of 2007. Usually at the present epoch in the solar cycle (-7+ years after the last solar maximum), for a normal size following cycle, new cycle sunspots would be seen. The lack of their appearance at this time is only consistent with a low cycle #24. Polar field observations of a weak magnitude are consistent with unusual structures seen in the Sun s corona. Polar coronal holes are the hallmarks of the Sun s open field structures. At present, it appears that the polar coronal holes are relatively weak, and there have been many equatorial coronal holes. This appears consistent with a weakening polar field, but coronal hole data must be scrutinized carefully as observing techniques have changed. We also discuss new solar dynamo ideas, and the SODA (Solar Dynamo Amplitude) index, which provides the user with the ability to track the Sun s hidden, dynamo magnetic fields throughout the various stages of the Sun s cycle. Our solar dynamo ideas are a modernization and rejuvenation of the Babcock-Leighton original idea of a shallow solar dynamo, using modem observations that appear to support their shallow dynamo viewpoint. We are in awe of being able to see an object the size of the Sun undergoing as dramatic a change as our model provides in a few short years. The Sun, however, has undergone changes as rapid as this before! The weather on the Sun is at least as fickle as the weather on the Earth.

Environment-dependence of behavioural consistency in adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis)

PubMed Central

Urszán, Tamás János; Bajer, Katalin; Molnár, Orsolya; Garamszegi, László Zsolt; Herczeg, Gábor

2017-01-01

Understanding the background mechanisms affecting the emergence and maintenance of consistent between-individual variation within population in single (animal personality) or across multiple (behavioural syndrome) behaviours has key importance. State-dependence theory suggests that behaviour is ‘anchored’ to individual state (e.g. body condition, gender, age) and behavioural consistency emerges through behavioural-state feedbacks. A number of relevant state variables are labile (e.g. body condition, physiological performance) and expected to be affected by short-term environmental change. Yet, whether short-term environmental shifts affect behavioural consistency during adulthood remains questionable. Here, by employing a full-factorial laboratory experiment, we explored if quantity of food (low vs. high) and time available for thermoregulation (3h vs. 10h per day) had an effect on activity and risk-taking of reproductive adult male European green lizards (Lacerta viridis). We focussed on different components of behavioural variation: (i) strength of behavioural consistency (repeatability for animal personality; between-individual correlation for behavioural syndrome), (ii) behavioural type (individual mean behaviour) and (iii) behavioural predictability (within-individual behavioural variation). Activity was repeatable in all treatments. Risk-taking was repeatable only in the low basking treatments. We found significant between-individual correlation only in the low food × long basking time group. The treatments did not affect behavioural type, but affected behavioural predictability. Activity predictability was higher in the short basking treatment, where it also decreased with size (≈ age). Risk-taking predictability in the short basking treatment increased with size under food limitation, but decreased when food supply was high. We conclude that short-term environmental change can alter various components of behavioural consistency. The effect could be detected in the presence/absence patterns of animal personality and behavioural syndrome and the level of individual behavioural predictability, but not in behavioural type. PMID:29112964

Changes in women's sexual behavior following sexual assault.

PubMed

Deliramich, Aimee N; Gray, Matt J

2008-09-01

The present study examines changes in women's sexual activity and behavior following sexual assault and the relationship between alcohol abuse and postassault promiscuity. Although many researchers have focused on avoidance of sexual activity following an assault, some have suggested that women may exhibit an increase in sexual activity postassault. Such outcomes are not mutually exclusive possibilities but may instead reflect subtypes of sexual assault victims. A significant percentage of assault survivors did report increases in sexual activity following trauma. Assault survivors also reported increases in posttraumatic alcohol consumption relative to a comparison sample of motor vehicle accident survivors. In both groups, increases in posttraumatic alcohol usage predicted increases in posttraumatic sexual activity, suggesting that use of alcohol as a coping strategy may result in an increased likelihood of engaging in risky sexual behavior. If true, this maladaptive coping mechanism could help to account for some instances of revictimization.

Using movement and intentions to understand human activity.

PubMed

Zacks, Jeffrey M; Kumar, Shawn; Abrams, Richard A; Mehta, Ritesh

2009-08-01

During perception, people segment continuous activity into discrete events. They do so in part by monitoring changes in features of an ongoing activity. Characterizing these features is important for theories of event perception and may be helpful for designing information systems. The three experiments reported here asked whether the body movements of an actor predict when viewers will perceive event boundaries. Body movements were recorded using a magnetic motion tracking system and compared with viewers' segmentation of his activity into events. Changes in movement features were strongly associated with segmentation. This was more true for fine-grained than for coarse-grained boundaries, and was strengthened when the stimulus displays were reduced from live-action movies to simplified animations. These results suggest that movement variables play an important role in the process of segmenting activity into meaningful events, and that the influence of movement on segmentation depends on the availability of other information sources.

Words That Move Us. The Effects of Sentences on Body Sway

PubMed Central

Stins, John F.; Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando; Hulzinga, Femke; Wenker, Eric; Cañal-Bruland, Rouwen

2017-01-01

According to the embodied cognition perspective, cognitive systems and perceptuo-motor systems are deeply intertwined and exert a causal effect on each other. A prediction following from this idea is that cognitive activity can result in subtle changes in observable movement. In one experiment, we tested whether reading various sentences resulted in changes in postural sway. Sentences symbolized various human activities involving high, low, or no physical effort. Dutch participants stood upright on a force plate, measuring the body center of pressure, while reading a succession of sentences. High physical effort sentences resulted in more postural sway (greater SD) than low physical effort sentences. This effect only showed up in medio-lateral sway but not anterio-posterior sway. This suggests that sentence comprehension was accompanied by subtle motoric activity, likely mirroring the various activities symbolized in the sentences. We conclude that semantic processing reaches the motor periphery, leading to increased postural activity. PMID:28713451

Activity affects intraspecific body-size scaling of metabolic rate in ectothermic animals.

PubMed

Glazier, Douglas Stewart

2009-10-01

Metabolic rate is commonly thought to scale with body mass (M) to the 3/4 power. However, the metabolic scaling exponent (b) may vary with activity state, as has been shown chiefly for interspecific relationships. Here I use a meta-analysis of literature data to test whether b changes with activity level within species of ectothermic animals. Data for 19 species show that b is usually higher during active exercise (mean +/- 95% confidence limits = 0.918 +/- 0.038) than during rest (0.768 +/- 0.069). This significant upward shift in b to near 1 is consistent with the metabolic level boundaries hypothesis, which predicts that maximal metabolic rate during exercise should be chiefly influenced by volume-related muscular power production (scaling as M (1)). This dependence of b on activity level does not appear to be a simple temperature effect because body temperature in ectotherms changes very little during exercise.

Predictors of physical activity change among adults using observational designs.

PubMed

Rhodes, Ryan E; Quinlan, Alison

2015-03-01

Regular physical activity (PA) is foundational to human health, yet most people are inactive. A sound understanding of the determinants of PA may be instructive for building interventions and/or identifying critical target groups to promote PA. Most research on PA correlates has been biased by cross-sectional or passive prospective designs that fail to examine within-person analysis of PA change. The purpose of this review was to collect and appraise the available literature on the predictors of PA change conceived broadly in terms of increases/decreases from baseline assessment as well as specifically in terms of adoption and maintenance. Eligible studies were from English, peer-reviewed published articles that examined predictors of natural change of PA over 3 months + using observational (non-experimental) data in adult samples. Searches were performed from June 2012 to January 2014 in eight databases. Sixty-seven independent data-sets, from 12 countries, primarily of medium quality/risk of bias, were identified with 26 correlates spanning demographic, behavioral, intra-individual, inter-individual, and environmental categories. Only intention and the onset of motherhood could reliably predict overall PA change. Among datasets configured to predict PA adoption, affective judgments and behavioral processes of change were the only reliable predictors, although both only have a small number of available studies. There were no reliable predictors of maintenance when compared to PA relapse. The results underscore the importance of individual-level motivation and behavioral regulation in PA change, but also denote critical social variables. These findings, however, are constrained by PA measurement bias and limited studies that employed time-varying covariation between predictor variables and PA.

The impact of climate change measured at relevant spatial scales: new hope for tropical lizards.

PubMed

Logan, Michael L; Huynh, Ryan K; Precious, Rachel A; Calsbeek, Ryan G

2013-10-01

Much attention has been given to recent predictions that widespread extinctions of tropical ectotherms, and tropical forest lizards in particular, will result from anthropogenic climate change. Most of these predictions, however, are based on environmental temperature data measured at a maximum resolution of 1 km(2), whereas individuals of most species experience thermal variation on a much finer scale. To address this disconnect, we combined thermal performance curves for five populations of Anolis lizard from the Bay Islands of Honduras with high-resolution temperature distributions generated from physical models. Previous research has suggested that open-habitat species are likely to invade forest habitat and drive forest species to extinction. We test this hypothesis, and compare the vulnerabilities of closely related, but allopatric, forest species. Our data suggest that the open-habitat populations we studied will not invade forest habitat and may actually benefit from predicted warming for many decades. Conversely, one of the forest species we studied should experience reduced activity time as a result of warming, while two others are unlikely to experience a significant decline in performance. Our results suggest that global-scale predictions generated using low-resolution temperature data may overestimate the vulnerability of many tropical ectotherms to climate change. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Learning Temporal Statistics for Sensory Predictions in Aging.

PubMed

Luft, Caroline Di Bernardi; Baker, Rosalind; Goldstone, Aimee; Zhang, Yang; Kourtzi, Zoe

2016-03-01

Predicting future events based on previous knowledge about the environment is critical for successful everyday interactions. Here, we ask which brain regions support our ability to predict the future based on implicit knowledge about the past in young and older age. Combining behavioral and fMRI measurements, we test whether training on structured temporal sequences improves the ability to predict upcoming sensory events; we then compare brain regions involved in learning predictive structures between young and older adults. Our behavioral results demonstrate that exposure to temporal sequences without feedback facilitates the ability of young and older adults to predict the orientation of an upcoming stimulus. Our fMRI results provide evidence for the involvement of corticostriatal regions in learning predictive structures in both young and older learners. In particular, we showed learning-dependent fMRI responses for structured sequences in frontoparietal regions and the striatum (putamen) for young adults. However, for older adults, learning-dependent activations were observed mainly in subcortical (putamen, thalamus) regions but were weaker in frontoparietal regions. Significant correlations of learning-dependent behavioral and fMRI changes in these regions suggest a strong link between brain activations and behavioral improvement rather than general overactivation. Thus, our findings suggest that predicting future events based on knowledge of temporal statistics engages brain regions involved in implicit learning in both young and older adults.

Capturing the dynamics of response variability in the brain in ADHD.

PubMed

van Belle, Janna; van Raalten, Tamar; Bos, Dienke J; Zandbelt, Bram B; Oranje, Bob; Durston, Sarah

2015-01-01

ADHD is characterized by increased intra-individual variability in response times during the performance of cognitive tasks. However, little is known about developmental changes in intra-individual variability, and how these changes relate to cognitive performance. Twenty subjects with ADHD aged 7-24 years and 20 age-matched, typically developing controls participated in an fMRI-scan while they performed a go-no-go task. We fit an ex-Gaussian distribution on the response distribution to objectively separate extremely slow responses, related to lapses of attention, from variability on fast responses. We assessed developmental changes in these intra-individual variability measures, and investigated their relation to no-go performance. Results show that the ex-Gaussian measures were better predictors of no-go performance than traditional measures of reaction time. Furthermore, we found between-group differences in the change in ex-Gaussian parameters with age, and their relation to task performance: subjects with ADHD showed age-related decreases in their variability on fast responses (sigma), but not in lapses of attention (tau), whereas control subjects showed a decrease in both measures of variability. For control subjects, but not subjects with ADHD, this age-related reduction in variability was predictive of task performance. This group difference was reflected in neural activation: for typically developing subjects, the age-related decrease in intra-individual variability on fast responses (sigma) predicted activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus (dACG), whereas for subjects with ADHD, activity in this region was related to improved no-go performance with age, but not to intra-individual variability. These data show that using more sophisticated measures of intra-individual variability allows the capturing of the dynamics of task performance and associated neural changes not permitted by more traditional measures.

Capturing the dynamics of response variability in the brain in ADHD

PubMed Central

van Belle, Janna; van Raalten, Tamar; Bos, Dienke J.; Zandbelt, Bram B.; Oranje, Bob; Durston, Sarah

2014-01-01

ADHD is characterized by increased intra-individual variability in response times during the performance of cognitive tasks. However, little is known about developmental changes in intra-individual variability, and how these changes relate to cognitive performance. Twenty subjects with ADHD aged 7–24 years and 20 age-matched, typically developing controls participated in an fMRI-scan while they performed a go-no-go task. We fit an ex-Gaussian distribution on the response distribution to objectively separate extremely slow responses, related to lapses of attention, from variability on fast responses. We assessed developmental changes in these intra-individual variability measures, and investigated their relation to no-go performance. Results show that the ex-Gaussian measures were better predictors of no-go performance than traditional measures of reaction time. Furthermore, we found between-group differences in the change in ex-Gaussian parameters with age, and their relation to task performance: subjects with ADHD showed age-related decreases in their variability on fast responses (sigma), but not in lapses of attention (tau), whereas control subjects showed a decrease in both measures of variability. For control subjects, but not subjects with ADHD, this age-related reduction in variability was predictive of task performance. This group difference was reflected in neural activation: for typically developing subjects, the age-related decrease in intra-individual variability on fast responses (sigma) predicted activity in the dorsal anterior cingulate gyrus (dACG), whereas for subjects with ADHD, activity in this region was related to improved no-go performance with age, but not to intra-individual variability. These data show that using more sophisticated measures of intra-individual variability allows the capturing of the dynamics of task performance and associated neural changes not permitted by more traditional measures. PMID:25610775